Zlato (XAU/USD) vystoupalo na nejvyšší úroveň od 18. června, protože slabší americká data a nižší sázky na zářijové zvýšení sazeb Fedu tlačí dolů dolar.
Gold (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's blowout rally of over 4% and advances for the fourth straight session, rising to its highest level since June 18 during the Asian session on Thursday. Hopes of a potential US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz dragged crude oil prices to an over three-week low on Wednesday. Iran said on Wednesday that it is in the final stage of drafting an agreement with Oman over the strategic waterway, which could help bring an end to the five-month-old US-Iran war. This eased inflation fears and forced traders to scale back their bets for a more aggressive tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook keeps US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD) depressed, and is seen supporting the bullion.
Adding to this, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday that private-sector employment in the US grew by 40K in July, marking a notable slowdown from the 95K in the prior month and missing consensus estimates. Separately, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed the Services PMI improved a tad to 54.1 in July from 54.0 in the previous month, coming in below expectations for a reading of 54.5. Following the softer data, the probability for a September Fed rate hike eased to roughly 55% from 67%, which continues to undermine the Greenback and acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold. That said, a slew of prominent Fed officials recently warned that persistent inflation risks could necessitate further interest rate hikes.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated that inflation remains too high and she is prepared to act by raising interest rates if disinflation stalls, warning that the central bank cannot afford to wait indefinitely if price pressures fail to ease. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that officials need more data before the September meeting to see if inflation is temporary or lasting. Nevertheless, traders are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid inflation risks stemming from supply disruptions through the Red Sea. In fact, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen said that they had launched a missile attack on a Saudi oil tanker off the coast of the port city of Yanbu and another in the Gulf of Aden.
This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and helps limit the downside in crude oil prices. Moreover, USD bears seem hesitant and opt to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday – for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. In the meantime, Thursday's US economic docket features the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which, along with comments from influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis could infuse volatility in the global financial markets, which could further provide some impetus to the buck and produce short-term trading opportunities around Gold.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis: Gold bulls now await move beyond 23.6% Fibo. before placing fresh betsThe overnight strong move up beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since March 17, was seen as a fresh trigger for XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, a firming Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 29.52 and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61.28 hint at improving bullish momentum. However, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-June downfall before positioning for any further gains.
The precious metal might then aim to challenge the $4,500 psychological mark – representing the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibo. level confluence. Higher up, the 50.0%, 61.8% and 78.6% retracements at $4,678.89, $4,853.49 and $5,102.07 respectively outline subsequent bullish objectives if the current band is cleared. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 50-day SMA at $4,157.24, while a deeper setback would likely look toward the Fibonacci cycle low area near $3,939.05 as a more substantial structural floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Zlato poprvé za sedm týdnů krátce otestovalo hranici 4 300 USD, protože naděje na znovuotevření Hormuzského průlivu tlačí dolů ropu i dolar. Trh zároveň vyhlíží páteční údaje NFP z USA.
Gold is extending the previous big breakout, briefly testing the $4,300 level for the first time in seven weeks in the Asian session on Thursday.
Gold cheers Strait of Hormuz reopening hopesNothing seems to have changed fundamentally for Gold since a day ago, as hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are coming to life after Iran said on Wednesday that it is close to finalizing a proposed framework for commercial shipping through the Strait with Omar, per The Guardian.
The optimism around the reopening of the vital waterway in the Gulf eases supply disruption concerns and keeps Oil prices mired in three-week lows.
Weakening Oil prices alleviate inflation worries, prompting markets to scale back their bets on a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September.
Markets are pricing in a roughly 55% chance that the Fed will raise rates in September, down from about 60% a day ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
That’s exactly what is weighing on the US Dollar (USD), while boosting non-yielding assets such as Gold.
Earlier on, Fed's Daly delivered a moderately cautious message, with a FXS Speechtracker score of 5.4/10, slightly softer relative to the historical average of 5.6/10. Daly highlighted that tariffs had a clear impact on inflation but now show signs of fading, while technology investment is currently adding upward pressure, and supply shocks are seen as largely temporary with longer-run inflation expectations still well anchored but not to be taken for granted. The tone leans toward balanced risk management, supportive of holding rates steady while emphasizing data dependence and the evolving mix of supply-side forces.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 2.23 points to 138.69, signaling a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness following the speech. Despite the decline, the index remains firmly in hawkish territory above 100, indicating that markets still see the Fed as biased toward tighter policy even as the tone cools slightly compared to recent communications.
Further, disappointing US ADP jobs and headline ISM Services PMI data continue to undermine the USD and Fed rate hike odds, keeping Gold price upside going strong.
The ADP said on Wednesday that US private sector employment increased by 44,000 jobs in July, against a growth of 70,000 jobs expected. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI came in at 54.1 in July, but missed the forecast of 54.5.
Looking ahead, all eyes will remain on the Middle East developments, especially after Israel launched attacks in southern Lebanon after accusing Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire.
The Mideast situation remains fragile also after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels said they targeted a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea as part of their naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.
If the Gulf conflict re-escalates, hampering the Strait of Hormuz reopening deal, Gold could see a steep correction toward the $4,150 demand area.
However, the daily technical setup suggests that more upside remains in the offing, as traders brace for Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,274.80. The metal holds a bullish near-term bias as it trades above the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $4,078.38 and $4,157.48, while the 100-day SMA at $4,393.96 and the 200-day SMA at $4,493.07 still loom overhead as medium-term caps. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.94 shows firm positive momentum, hinting that buyers retain control though conditions are edging toward overbought territory.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA near $4,394, followed by the 200-day SMA around $4,493, where a break would open the way for a stronger extension of the bullish trend. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the recent price pivot around $4,275, ahead of the 50-day SMA at $4,157 and the 21-day SMA near $4,078; a deeper slide could revisit the rising trend-line support drawn from $3,951, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold positioning shifts as TD Securities flags renewed macro supportAccording to TD Securities, "macro headwinds being pushed out on the horizon, along with US-Iran deal hope, have put some major wind in the precious metals sails." Strategists at the bank note that, when "decomposing managed money gold positions," macro discretionary funds "have more than doubled their positions since June," acting as consistent dip buyers and "protecting the $4000/oz level." TD Securities adds that "the momentum generated from these cohorts' renewed appetite is now forcing CTAs to turn heavy buyers, exaggerating the move to the upside," as systematic accounts are drawn into the rally by the improving trend in positioning.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
USD/CAD climbed toward weekly highs as falling oil prices weakened the Canadian dollar despite strong domestic trade data. Canada's trade surplus reached a four-year high, but the positive economic data was overshadowed by the sharp decline in crude oil prices. Markets are reassessing Federal Reserve expectations, limiting gains in the US dollar after weaker-than-expected US economic data. USD/CAD rises as oil prices pressure the Canadian dollar The USD/CAD exchange rate extended its gains on Wednesday, climbing toward the 1.4080 level as another sharp decline in oil prices continued to pressure the Canadian dollar.
The move came despite encouraging economic data from Canada, where the country’s merchandise trade surplus expanded to its highest level in four years during June. Under normal market conditions, stronger trade figures would support the loonie. However, investors remained focused on the collapse in crude oil prices, which has become the dominant driver of the Canadian currency this week.
Canada is one of the world’s largest crude exporters, meaning movements in oil prices often have a direct impact on the value of the Canadian dollar. With Brent crude slipping below $80 per barrel as hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran improved, traders reduced exposure to the loonie in anticipation of weaker export revenues.
Lower oil prices offset stronger Canadian economic data The Canadian dollar struggled to capitalize on stronger-than-expected domestic economic data as falling crude oil prices remained the dominant driver of market sentiment. Canada reported a merchandise trade surplus that climbed to a four-year high in June, reflecting resilient exports and healthy external demand. Under normal circumstances, such data would provide support for the loonie by reinforcing confidence in the country’s economic outlook.
However, investors largely overlooked the upbeat trade figures as oil prices extended their recent decline. Brent crude slipped below $80 per barrel, marking its lowest level in several weeks, after growing optimism that diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran could ease tensions in the Middle East and reduce the risk of supply disruptions. Expectations that global oil supplies could stabilize prompted traders to unwind part of this year’s geopolitical risk premium.
Because crude oil is Canada’s largest export, movements in energy prices have a significant impact on the country’s trade balance, corporate earnings and economic growth prospects. The latest decline in oil prices therefore outweighed the positive impact of Canada’s stronger trade data, leaving the loonie under pressure as investors continued to favor the US dollar.
Softer US data caps US dollar gains While USD/CAD continued to move higher, gains in the US dollar remained limited as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy following a fresh batch of weaker-than-expected US economic data. The greenback initially found support from broad risk sentiment but struggled to build sustained momentum as markets questioned whether the Fed would have enough justification to continue tightening monetary policy.
Recent economic releases painted a mixed picture of the US economy. JOLTS job openings fell by more than economists had anticipated, suggesting labor demand is beginning to cool after months of resilience. Meanwhile, factory orders unexpectedly declined, pointing to softer business investment and moderating manufacturing activity. Together, the data reinforced expectations that economic momentum is slowing, reducing pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates aggressively in the near term.
As a result, traders scaled back expectations for another interest rate hike, with market-implied odds of a September increase easing from the previous session. Lower rate expectations tend to weigh on the US dollar by narrowing its interest-rate advantage over other major currencies.
Despite this, USD/CAD remained supported because weakness in the Canadian dollar proved more significant than softness in the greenback. Falling crude oil prices continued to undermine the loonie, allowing the pair to edge higher even as US dollar gains were capped by expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve.
USD/CAD outlook The USD/CAD outlook remains cautiously bullish while the pair trades above the psychological 1.4000 support level. Buyers are now testing resistance around 1.4090, a key technical barrier that has capped recent advances. A decisive breakout above this level could expose 1.4125, with the yearly high near 1.4250 becoming the next major upside target.
However, if oil prices recover or expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening continue to fade, the Canadian dollar could regain some ground, potentially pulling USD/CAD back toward 1.4000.
Why is USD/CAD rising today?
USD/CAD is rising mainly because falling oil prices are weakening the Canadian dollar, while the US dollar remains relatively stable despite softer US economic data.
What is the next key level for USD/CAD?
The immediate resistance level is around 1.4090. A sustained move above this level could open the door for a test of 1.4125, followed by the 2026 highs near 1.4250.
Why do oil prices affect the Canadian dollar?
Canada is a major oil exporter. Lower crude prices reduce export revenues and typically weaken the Canadian dollar, while higher oil prices generally support the currency.
Stříbro (XAG/USD) ve středu vyskočilo o více než 4 % na zhruba 62,30 USD po slabších datech ADP a zmírnění očekávání dalšího zvyšování sazeb Fedu. Krátkodobý výhled se zlepšil, ale týdenní trend zůstává medvědí.
Silver (XAG/USD) jumps more than 4% on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected US ADP employment data and easing energy-driven inflation prompt traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $62.30, near its highest level in a month.
From a technical perspective, the latest leg higher has improved the near-term outlook. However, the broader trend remains cautious as Silver approaches key resistance levels.
On the daily chart, XAG/USD has reclaimed the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.31 and is now challenging the 50-day SMA at $62.65.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 56, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays above zero. Both indicators suggest that bullish momentum is building.
Immediate resistance is located at the 50-day SMA near $62.65. A daily close above this level would open the way toward the $65.00 barrier, followed by the 100-day SMA at $69.22. On the downside, the 21-day SMA at $58.31 offers initial support, ahead of the horizontal floor near $55.50.
Weekly chart
On the weekly chart, XAG/USD trades below the 50-week SMA at $65.94 and the 21-week SMA at $68.64, keeping the broader outlook bearish. The weekly RSI stands at 45, while the MACD remains below zero, suggesting that the latest advance has yet to develop into a broader bullish reversal.
On the upside, the $65.00 mark offers initial resistance, followed by the 50-week SMA at $65.94. A sustained break above this zone would bring the 21-week SMA at $68.64 into focus. On the downside, support is located near $55.50, followed by the 100-week SMA at $49.51.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Stříbro (XAG/USD) roste o 2 % na 59,50 USD za trojskou unci, protože zprávy o možném znovuotevření Hormuzského průlivu tlumí poptávku po bezpečných aktivech.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a mildly positive tone near $59.50 per troy ounce on Tuesday, up 2% for the day, but falling from recent highs and leaving the metal locked in a tight range. Fading geopolitical tension weighs on safe-haven demand, while a softer United States (US) labor market reading limits the downside by keeping the Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook uncertain.
Al Arabiya reported that an announcement regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected soon. Al Hadath suggested arrangements for a full reopening could be confirmed within hours. None of the reports have been officially verified, but they have already triggered a sharp unwind of the risk premium built into commodity markets during the conflict.
For Silver, the impact cuts both ways. The metal has benefited from defensive flows during the escalation, and a confirmed reopening of the waterway would remove that support. At the same time, cheaper energy and improved global trade conditions favor industrial activity. With roughly half of Silver demand tied to industrial applications, a durable easing of supply disruptions supports the medium-term consumption outlook.
On the macroeconomic front, the JOLTS report showed vacancies falling to 7.359 million in June from the revised 7.537 million and below the 7.4 million forecast. The reading points to continued cooling in labor demand and tempers the message delivered by Monday's strong ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which climbed to 55.6. Softer labor demand trims the odds of further Fed tightening, easing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
The ADP Employment Change is expected to slow to 70K in July from 98K, ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report. A run of soft prints would revive expectations that the Fed has reached the end of its tightening cycle, weakening the US Dollar and clearing the path for precious metals.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $59.40. The metal holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.37 and the 100-period SMA at $57.93, keeping a constructive bullish tone while it consolidates just under nearby resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 sits in positive territory, suggesting firm upside momentum but still shy of overbought conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at $59.49, ahead of the more notable horizontal barrier at $60.00. On the downside, immediate support emerges at $59.14, followed by $58.99, with the clustered moving average floor around the 20-period SMA at $58.37 and the 100-period SMA at $57.93 expected to underpin the broader bullish bias on deeper pullbacks.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/CAD se odrazil od 55denního EMA a trh sleduje, zda kanadská pracovní data a ropa nad 86 USD potvrdí průlom nad 1,9042. Slabší data z Kanady by mohla pár vrátit k této rezistenci.
TL;DR: GBP/CAD looks ready to resume its uptrend after rebounding from the 55-day EMA, but a sustained breakout depends on two separate forces — Friday’s volatile Canadian jobs report and whether oil’s renewed strength above $86 continues to support the Canadian Dollar.
Why the Correction May Already Be Over After nearly a month of consolidation, GBP/CAD is showing signs that its broader uptrend may be ready to resume. The pair has rebounded convincingly after holding the 55-day EMA, suggesting the pullback from 1.9042 was a healthy correction rather than a change in trend. A retest of the July high now looks likely. Whether GBP/CAD can convert that into a sustained breakout, however, will depend on two very different forces: this week’s Canadian labor market data and the direction of oil prices.
Force One: The Scheduled Risk — A Volatile Canadian Jobs Report The first is the easier of the two to assess. Canada’s July employment report is expected to show job growth of 15k, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.5%. Those numbers would broadly indicate a labor market that remains stable despite slowing economic momentum. Yet recent history suggests caution — Canada’s employment data have repeatedly produced large surprises this year, swinging from an unexpected -18k decline in April to an 88k surge in May, before moderating to 18k in June. That volatility means another downside surprise cannot be dismissed.
A softer employment report would likely weaken the Canadian Dollar by reinforcing the Bank of Canada’s patient policy stance. The BoC has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings since its October 2025 rate cut, repeatedly signaling it’s prepared to look through temporary inflation shocks as long as underlying price pressures remain contained. Weak labor market data would support that approach by reducing the urgency for any policy tightening — and could provide the catalyst for GBP/CAD to revisit 1.9042.
Force Two: The Unscheduled Risk — Oil’s Renewed Grip on the Canadian Dollar The bigger challenge lies beyond Friday’s data. The main reason GBP/CAD lost momentum after reaching 1.9042 in early July was the sharp reversal in oil prices. Brent crude had bottomed near $70 before surging above $100 following the collapse of the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire, restoring strong support for the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar and forcing GBP/CAD into a month-long consolidation.
The pair’s rebound from 1.8709 has coincided with Brent’s retreat from above $100 to around $80, which eased some of that support for the Canadian Dollar. But oil has since recovered above $86 as geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, once again acting as a headwind for Sterling. The current advance in GBP/CAD therefore looks less constrained by Canadian domestic fundamentals than by the renewed resilience of crude prices.
Why the Geopolitical Backdrop Hasn’t Actually Changed The geopolitical backdrop has changed little despite alternating headlines from Washington and Tehran. President Donald Trump has shifted from projecting confidence in imminent negotiations to warning that Iran faces a “last chance,” while Tehran continues to insist there are no immediate plans for direct talks with the United States, limiting engagement to Oman’s mediation over the Strait of Hormuz. The fundamental disagreement over the future of the waterway remains unresolved, leaving markets reluctant to remove the geopolitical premium embedded in oil prices.
That distinction is important. A weak Canadian employment report may be enough to propel GBP/CAD back toward 1.9042, but it’s unlikely to be sufficient for a sustained breakout if Brent remains elevated. For Sterling bulls, Friday’s jobs report could provide the trigger — but whether the rally extends beyond the July high will depend far more on whether oil prices retreat again, which in turn requires credible progress toward renewed US-Iran negotiations rather than another round of conflicting political statements.
ActionForex’s Technical View on GBP/CAD The technical outlook reflects that balance between constructive momentum and lingering macro risks. GBP/CAD remains firmly within the rising channel from 1.8017, and this week’s rebound from the 55-day EMA, now around 1.8716, strengthens the case that the correction ended at 1.8709. A break above 1.9042 would open the way toward the 61.8% projection of 1.8299 to 1.9042 from 1.8709, at 1.9168, in the near term.
However, rejection by 1.9042 will set up another leg to extend the corrective pattern, with risk of a deeper fall through 1.8709. In that case, strong support should be seen from the rising channel floor, now at 1.8617, to bring a rebound.
Key Takeaways GBP/CAD’s rebound from the 55-day EMA suggests the pullback from 1.9042 was a correction, not a trend change, with a retest of the July high likely. Canada’s July jobs report (consensus: 15k job growth, 6.5% unemployment) carries elevated surprise risk given three large misses already this year. A weak jobs print could push GBP/CAD back toward 1.9042, but a sustained breakout depends more on oil, which has recovered above $86 after briefly easing from $100. The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved despite shifting rhetoric, keeping a geopolitical premium embedded in oil and a headwind on Sterling. 1.9042 is the key resistance; a break opens 1.9168, while rejection risks a deeper pullback toward 1.8709, with the rising channel floor at 1.8617 as the next support.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Zlato čeká na páteční data o zaměstnanosti, která rozhodnou o dalším vývoji sazeb Fedu i dolaru. Slabá data by mohla obnovit tlak na dolar a podpořit kov.
Weekly US Government Bonds 30-Year Yield The 30-year above 5.20% killed the rally before it had a second day. Gold pushed above $4,100 on Thursday’s dollar break and the long end did not flinch. By Friday the dollar had recovered and the $4,100 bid was gone. One session. That is what gold got out of the biggest Fed repricing in two months.
Payrolls Friday Settles What the Fed Left Open The July employment report at 13:30 GMT Friday is the number gold has been waiting for since Warsh refused to give the market guidance. He set this up so the data decides. Gold buyers need the number to come in soft enough to pull September odds lower and restart the dollar selling that lifted the metal above $4,100 last week. The dissenters already have the inflation argument. A firm jobs report with strong wages gives them the labor market too, and gold does not have a defense against both.
Tuesday’s JOLTS report is the early read before Friday’s main event. The week is about one question and the answer arrives in stages.
What to Watch Friday’s payrolls report decides whether the September rate trade tightens or loosens, and gold is going to follow the dollar’s reaction to the number. The Fed hold pulled hike odds down from 80% to 65% and the dollar broke lower on the repricing, but the long end did not cooperate and gold could not hold above $4,100. Tuesday’s JOLTS is the early signal. If it comes in soft, gold buyers get a head start pressing the dollar before Friday. If it comes in strong, the rate rebuild starts early and gold has to defend the week’s lows.
Gold has been straddling the 50% retracement level for weeks and the consolidation is building a base that either launches toward the 52-week moving average or breaks down toward the support below. Payrolls is the catalyst that picks the direction.
The Pound to Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate ended July at 128.63 after a volatile month carried the pair above 130.80 before part of the advance was reversed.
The Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision now provides the week’s main event risk for GBP/INR.
Latest — Exchange Rates: Pound to Rupee (GBP/INR): 128.6262 (-0.14%)
July: +2.55%
July High: 130.8147
WEEKLY RECAP:
The Pound to Rupee exchange rate (GBP/INR) recovered during the closing sessions of July after falling towards 127.28 at the start of the week.
Pound Sterling retained support following the Bank of England’s decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%.
Three policymakers voted for an immediate increase, although Governor Andrew Bailey played down the urgency of another move. Scotiabank noted that UK yield spreads continue to provide Sterling with underlying support.
The Indian Rupee finished the week more strongly.
Persistent Reserve Bank of India intervention, a softer US Dollar and a modest retreat in oil prices helped the currency record its strongest weekly advance since March.
The RBI’s June measures have now attracted more than $40 billion in foreign-currency inflows, providing policymakers with another tool for stabilising the Rupee.
However, India remains vulnerable to energy costs. Brent crude posted a sharp July increase, keeping inflation and the import bill firmly in focus.
Near-Term GBP/INR Forecast: RBI Decision and Technical Levels in Focus For Sterling, Monday’s final manufacturing PMI is followed by Wednesday’s services PMI and Thursday’s construction survey.
For the Rupee, Wednesday is the key session. India’s services PMI is followed by the RBI policy announcement, with most economists expecting the repo rate to remain at 5.25%.
A neutral hold accompanied by confidence in capital inflows could support the Rupee. A dovish assessment of growth risks or renewed concern over oil prices would leave it exposed.
Technically, GBP/INR is trading close to its 20-day moving average near 128.60 and above the 50-day average around 127.70.
Image: GBP/INR 3-month chart with 20MA an 50MA Share article
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The 20-day line has also moved back above the 50-day average, giving the chart a mildly positive bias.
Initial resistance sits at 129.00–129.20, followed by 130.00 and July’s 130.81 peak. Support is located around 128.00 and 127.30.
A sustained break above 129.20 could reopen 130.00, while a close below the 50-day average would expose 127.00.
In the near-term, Exchange Rates UK Research forecast that the Pound to Rupee exchange rate will trade within the 127.00–130.50 range.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Zlato (XAU/USD) zůstává bez jasného směru, protože slabší USD vyvažuje eskalace konfliktu na Blízkém východě. Trh čeká na páteční zprávu o zaměstnanosti v USA.
Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to make a decisive move in either direction as the persistent US Dollar (USD) weakness was offset by a widening conflict in the Middle East. July employment data from the United States (US) could trigger a big reaction in Gold, while the near-term technical outlook highlights a lack of buyer interest.
Middle East crisis caps Gold’s upsideGold started the week with a bullish gap as geopolitical tensions eased after the US announced over the weekend that it put military operations against Iran on hold and Iran also paused its retaliatory strikes. However, the yellow metal erased a portion of its daily gains later on Monday after Iran clarified that they were not engaged in direct ceasefire talks with the US.
Reports of Saudi forces joining the conflict by launching attacks on Iran-aligned groups in Iraq as retaliation to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities pointed to a widening conflict, rather than a return to diplomacy. Additionally, Iran claimed an attack on a US military base located in Jordan. Gold turned south on Tuesday and lost more than 1% on the day.
On Wednesday, the USD came under heavy selling pressure and allowed XAU/USD to stage a rebound. Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) refrained from delivering a dovish message following the July policy meeting, the decision to leave the policy rate unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75% triggered a USD selloff, as markets had priced in about a 30% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike heading into the event, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s comments in the post-meeting press conference scored a 7/10 on FXS Speechtracker versus a historic 6/10, underscoring a firmer commitment to the inflation fight. The repeated insistence that “only one target and it is 2%” and “we will deliver the 2% target,” alongside remarks that inflation “cannot be cured in 9 weeks” and that the committee “will not hesitate to act,” signaled a resolute, patient hawkish stance despite acknowledging “impressive resilience” in the economy. The emphasis on trend over short-term data, higher nominal and real yields, and a robust, non-inertial policy debate pointed to a Fed comfortable with tight conditions for longer.
According to TD Securities, the latest FOMC decision to leave interest rates unchanged has supported bullion, but it was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s stance that proved more pivotal. The bank notes that “the FOMC held interest rates steady, but it was Fed Chair Warsh’s willingness to look through an inflation shock and steer away from data dependency that has given gold a lift higher.” Even so, TD Securities cautions that the broader policy backdrop remains a constraint, stressing that “we continue to believe that market expectations for rate hikes will keep a lid on any material bullishness across precious metals.”
The USD continued to weaken against its major rivals on Thursday and Gold managed to close the second consecutive day in positive territory. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, falling short of the market expectation and the first-quarter’s 2.1% expansion. However, the unprecedented decline seen in USD/JPY suggested that the USD weakness was most likely caused by a suspected market intervention by Japanese authorities to support the Japanese Yen, rather than a change in the underlying fundamentals of the USD. With the dust settling down on Friday and investors shifting their focus back to the Middle East, the USD staged a rebound and XAU/USD turned south, retracing a majority of its two-day rebound.
Gold investors to stay focused on Middle East, Fed outlookThe US economic calendar will feature the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. Ahead of Friday’s critical official employment report, however, PMI figures are unlikely to have a lasting impact on Gold’s performance. Still, the USD could struggle to find demand and help XAU/USD keep its footing in case either of the headline PMIs falls into contraction territory below 50.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 57K in June and missed the market expectation of 110K by a wide margin, following three consecutive months of robust growth. A disappointing NFP print below 50K in July could revive concerns over worsening conditions in the labor market and weigh on the USD with the immediate reaction.
Conversely, a reading above 80K is likely to be seen as ‘good enough’ for the Fed to continue to prioritize taming inflation and support the USD. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in about a 35% probability of a rate increase in September. If there is a significant upside surprise in NFP, with a print above 120K, markets could quickly position themselves for a September rate hike. Current market positioning suggests that the USD is likely to rally in this scenario and trigger another leg lower in XAU/USD heading into the weekend.
Economists at Wells Fargo anticipate a steady US labor backdrop over the coming months, noting that they “expect the job market to remain broadly stable, with payroll growth averaging ~80K per month and the unemployment rate holding near 4.2% for the remainder of the year.” While they acknowledge that the recent decline in unemployment “did not occur for the ‘right’ reasons,” Wells Fargo argues that the “sideways move in the unemployment rate signals that labor demand and supply are roughly in balance,” reinforcing the view of a jobs market that is neither overheating nor sharply weakening.
Investors will also pay close attention to comments from Fed policymakers throughout the week, especially from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who dissented by voting in favor of a rate hike in the last Fed decision.
In case policymakers voice concerns over the inflation outlook and risks posed by the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, the USD is likely to stay resilient and limit XAU/USD’s recovery attempts. On the other hand, Gold could gain traction and push higher if US central bank officials support a steady policy for longer, dampening interest rate hike expectations by citing a cooling economy on the back of the disappointing second-quarter growth data.
Analysts at Commerzbank highlight that the latest Fed decision was far from unanimous, noting that “three of the five regional Fed presidents who serve on the Federal Open Market Committee voted in favor of a rate hike,” underscoring a meaningful hawkish contingent within the FOMC. They argue that Chair Kevin Warsh “apparently assumes that the financial markets will do the Fed’s work for it,” allowing higher market yields to shoulder more of the tightening burden in the near term. However, Commerzbank cautions that this strategy has clear limits: “If inflation does not slow noticeably soon, it will not be enough to merely speak resolutely. Then the Fed will also have to take action.”
Finally, fresh developments surrounding the crisis in the Middle East are likely to continue to impact Gold’s valuation. A retreat in military action could support the precious metal, while a further escalation and expansion of the conflict could continue to feed into global inflation fears and hurt it.
FXStreet Economic CalendarGold technical analysis: Bulls hesitateThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart fell short of clearing the 50 neutral level, and Gold’s break above the descending trend line and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Thursday failed to attract technical buyers.
The $3,950-$3,920 area stays as a key technical support, where the lower limit of the descending triangle formation and the beginning point of the November-February trend align. If Gold breaks below this region, $3,800 (static level, round level) could be seen as the next bearish target ahead of $3,720 (static level).
On the upside, $4,185 (50-day SMA) could be seen as the next resistance level in case Gold manages to confirm the $4,060-$4,070 (20-day SMA, descending trend line) area as support. If the bullish momentum builds up afterward, $4,240 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the November-February uptrend) could be seen as an interim resistance level before $4,380 (static level).
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Poptávka po zlatě ve 2. čtvrtletí 2026 byla meziročně beze změny na 1 269 tunách, když nákupy centrálních bank vyrovnaly odlivy z ETF. ING zároveň čeká, že nákupy centrálních bank v roce 2026 budou nižší než v roce 2025.
ING’s commodities team reports that Gold demand was steady in 2Q 2026, with total demand flat year-on-year at 1,269 tonnes as strong central bank purchases balanced weaker ETF demand. They note net ETF outflows amid higher inflation and rate expectations and a stronger Dollar, while revised data imply central bank Gold buying in 2026 will likely fall below 2025 levels.
Steady demand with softer 2026 outlook"According to the World Gold Council, total gold demand (including OTC transactions) was unchanged year-on-year at 1,269 tonnes in 2Q 2026, as strong central bank purchases offset weaker investor demand through gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Total demand reached 2,522 tonnes in the first half of the year, up 2% YoY."
"Gold ETFs recorded 45 tonnes of net outflows in the second quarter, reflecting growing inflation and interest rate expectations, along with a stronger US dollar."
"Central bank purchases increased 62% YoY to 289 tonnes in 2Q26, rebounding strongly from 1Q and remaining consistent with recent buying trends."
"However, revised data showed that central banks added only 57 tonnes in 1Q26, 187 tonnes below the April estimate, marking the weakest first-quarter demand in more than a decade."
"As a result, central bank gold purchases in 2026 are now expected to be lower than in 2025."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Poptávka centrálních bank po zlatě se ve 2. čtvrtletí prudce odrazila na rekordních 289 tun, tažená Polskem a Čínou. WGC ale čeká, že v roce 2025 jejich nákupy zeslábnou a klesnou pod úroveň z roku 2024.
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes World Gold Council (WGC) data showing a sharp rebound in central bank Gold purchases to a record 289 tons in Q2, led by Poland and China, after a very weak Q1. Despite this, the council expects official sector buying to ease and fall below 2025 levels, while ETF outflows and weak mining flows point to fragile investor confidence in Gold prices.
Official buying rebound but outlook softer"The World Gold Council said central bank gold buying in Q1 was much weaker than previously estimated, with purchases of only 57 tons, down 187 tons from the prior view and the weakest start to a year in more than a decade."
"Demand then rebounded sharply in Q2, with net buying reaching a record 289 tons, led by Poland and China."
"Despite that recovery, the council expects central bank gold purchases to ease this year and likely fall below 2025 levels."
"The report also noted Q2 outflows from gold backed exchange traded funds, softer bar and coin demand, weaker jewelry demand, and lower recycled supply."
"Mining and metal sector flows remain weak in iFlow, indicating poor investor confidence in price levels."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Higher real yields and a firmer US Dollar may keep gold prices under pressure, but analysts eye weakness towards $3,850–$4,000 as an opportunity to rebuild exposure. The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded around $4,031 an ounce on Wednesday, attempting a modest recovery after losing 1.2% in the previous session and falling for a second consecutive day.
The metal has spent much of July oscillating around $4,000, well below the record levels reached earlier this year. It remains marginally higher for the month, but has fallen sharply since March, when prices briefly traded above $5,400.
UBS says the correction reflects a more difficult macro backdrop rather than the collapse of the longer-term investment case.
“Stronger US data and rising real yields have sapped gold’s near-term momentum,” the bank said, adding that higher yields and a stronger Dollar have increased the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no income.
Expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted alongside the stronger data. Markets have moved from anticipating rate cuts to considering whether the Fed could tighten again, a change that has been particularly uncomfortable for gold.
UBS nevertheless describes the retreat as “more like a reset than a broken investment case”.
Investor demand for gold exchange-traded funds has softened from earlier peaks, but positioning suggests investors have not abandoned the market. UBS also expects the Fed to remain on hold through 2026 before cutting rates in 2027, a path that should eventually reduce pressure from real yields and the Dollar.
Structural demand remains central to the bank’s argument.
“Central bank demand, continued diversification away from the US dollar, and global debt concerns remain important structural supports,” UBS said.
Image: Gold price year-to-date chart showing the retreat from January’s record high above $5,500 towards the $4,000 area The latest Exchange Rates UK chart captures just how dramatic the year has been.
The price of gold surged from around $4,300 at the start of January to above $5,500 later that month, before enduring a volatile decline through the spring. After another rally towards $5,350 in early March, the market began a more persistent retreat, reaching the $4,000 region by June.
The recent price action has been less spectacular but no less important. Gold has repeatedly found buyers close to $4,000, although rebounds have struggled to develop into a sustained recovery.
RBC Capital Markets’ latest Gold Standard review offers some evidence that investors are returning at lower levels.
Gold rose 1% to $4,056 during the week covered by the report, while physical gold ETFs recorded inflows of 404,000 ounces. Total global ETF holdings stood near 97 million ounces, although they remained 2.3 million ounces lower than at the end of 2025.
The same review showed US ten-year real yields climbing 14 basis points to 2.43%, while the Dollar index rose 0.7%. Those are usually hostile conditions for bullion, yet gold still managed a weekly advance.
RBC’s correlation data underline the relationship: gold’s one-year correlation with US ten-year real yields was negative 0.43, while its correlation with the Dollar index was negative 0.46.
In other words, the usual headwinds are still working. They simply have not been powerful enough to drive investors out altogether.
Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: UBS Sees $3,850–$4,000 Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities UBS expects gold to end 2026 around $4,600 an ounce before rising to $5,200 by June 2027.
That forecast allows for further weakness first. The bank says pullbacks towards the $3,850–$4,000 range “should be seen as opportunities for under-allocated investors to add exposure, rather than a reason to abandon the position”.
It also continues to view gold as a strategic portfolio hedge, arguing that the metal can offer diversification during equity-market stress, geopolitical shocks, inflation surprises and periods of weakening confidence in fiat currencies.
The next test will come from US economic data and the Federal Reserve. Another rise in real yields or a more hawkish policy signal could push gold back towards the lower end of UBS’s buying range.
A softer run of data would change the mood quickly. With ETF flows turning positive again and prices already far below their early-year peak, the market may not need much encouragement to challenge $4,200.
UBS’s message is not that the correction is over. It is that investors waiting for a cleaner entry may already be getting one.
Zlato zůstává pod tlakem kvůli jestřábímu výhledu Fedu a dražší energii. TD Securities čeká, že CTA short covering začne až nad 4 222 USD za unci, výraznější long pozice až kolem 4 300 USD.
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that Gold remains under pressure as markets price a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) path and renewed energy strength. They highlight that CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) short covering only begins above $4,222/oz, with more substantial net long positioning closer to $4,300/oz. However, they expect multiple dissents and ongoing hike pricing to limit Gold’s ability to reach these CTA trigger levels.
Fed pricing restrains gold CTA flows"Precious metals have remained weak in the face of hawkish market pricing for the Fed, and renewed energy upside will continue to feed into this narrative."
"Gold markets are already well-priced for a hawkish Fed path, and while we are not expecting a hike today, the bar may be high to shift the underlying forward expectations for the yellow metal."
"CTAs need prices above $4,222/oz to catalyze only very minimal short covering, but beyond this level, pricing simulations highlight the potential for asymmetric upside with prices closer to $4,300/oz likely to see notable net long positions."
"However, we expect multiple dissents to a hold decision, and markets continuing to price for hikes in September and beyond, which would likely see any gold upside fall short of hitting those upside CTA scenario levels."
"War risk is back on, but we are not expecting any material CTA flows across the energy complex. Elsewhere, precious metals will be focused on the Fed, but the bar will be high to shift the underlying bearish forces in the gold market."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Peru, které těží zhruba šestinu světové produkce stříbra, může po volbách čelit protestům v těžebních regionech a dále utáhnout už tak napjatou nabídku. Globální těžba stříbra má přitom zůstat v roce 2026 téměř beze změny.
The loudest silver story in July was a shooting war, but the more durable threat was a peaceful election in Peru, a country that digs up close to one silver ounce in six.
Silver trades near $59.43 an ounce as I write this, with the gold-silver ratio around 69. That ratio is simply the number of silver ounces it takes to buy one ounce of gold, and it sits near the high end of its historical range, a level long-term buyers read as silver being inexpensive against the larger metal. Silver is up more than 50% from where it stood a year ago, though it remains well below the record of $121.62 set on January 29.
Most of the past fortnight's price action came from the Middle East, where renewed strikes on Iran drove oil higher and pulled silver down with it. That is the noisy, macro-driven side of the market, and it tends to dominate the headlines. Underneath it, though, a slower and more consequential story was developing on the supply side, in a country that rarely makes the front page of a metals report.
I write the Silver Catalyst newsletter for Golden Meadow®, and one of the themes I keep returning to is that silver's supply is more concentrated, and more politically exposed, than its steady price history suggests. Peru is the clearest example. It is among the top handful of silver-producing countries, and in July its politics moved in a direction that could tighten an already narrow supply picture.
One country, about a sixth of mine supplyOn July 15, Reuters reported that Peru's president-elect, Keiko Fujimori, could face renewed protests in the country's mining regions as her incoming government tries to push forward large copper and other mining projects that have been delayed for years. The report drew on a study by the Observatory of Mining Conflicts in Peru, which counts roughly $64 billion in planned mining investment, much of it in poor rural areas where communities say they see little local benefit and worry about the environmental cost.
This is not a war or a coup. It is the ordinary friction of a mining democracy, and that is exactly why it is easy to underrate. But the numbers behind it are not small. Peru produced about 131 million ounces of silver in 2025, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, which is about 15% of the roughly 847 million ounces the world mined that year, close to one ounce in six.
Two features of Peruvian silver make that output especially fragile. The first is that most of it is a byproduct. Peru's mines are dug primarily for lead, zinc, and copper, and silver comes out alongside those metals rather than as the main event. This is not unique to Peru. It is how most of the world's silver is produced: mines built primarily for silver have fallen to just 26% of global supply, a record low, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, which means roughly three-quarters of all silver now arrives as a byproduct of mining for other metals. What concentrates the risk in Peru is that so much of this byproduct supply sits in one country. It means silver supply from Peru rises and falls with decisions made for entirely different reasons, driven by the economics of lead, zinc, and copper, and it cannot easily be increased just because silver is expensive. The second is that many of Peru's silver projects are run by small and mid-sized companies with thin balance sheets, which makes them more vulnerable to the energy-cost spikes and road blockades that periodically disrupt the country's mining regions.
The backdrop was already unsettled before the election result. Peru issued an emergency decree in May to deal with an energy shortage, road blockades have periodically interrupted shipments of concentrate, and the program to formalize the country's large informal-mining sector has been extended into the end of 2026. A wave of protest over stalled projects would land on top of all of it.
There is a second-order effect that reaches well beyond Peru's borders. Peru is a major supplier of silver-bearing concentrate to China, the country that does most of the world's silver refining. A serious disruption in Peru would not just remove Peruvian ounces; it would tighten the raw material feeding Chinese refineries, at the same time that China's own export controls are keeping more of its refined silver at home. The squeeze would compound.
Sources: MINING.COM / Reuters: Fujimori's Mining Push Could Spur Unrest in Peru | Silver Bullion: Peru's Energy Crisis and the Silver Market | Mexico Business News: US Demands Fall From 54 to 14 Ahead of July 20 Talks | White & Case: Critical-Minerals Section 232 Negotiations
Why this matters more than one country's politicsThe reason Peru carries weight is that the world's mined silver supply barely grows, so there is no cushion to absorb a loss.
In 2025, global mine production came in at 846.6 million ounces. For 2026, Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast it essentially flat, at 844.1 million ounces, a decline of about 2.5 million ounces. That flatness is the whole point. Silver has been in a supply deficit, meaning the world uses more than it mines and recycles, and it has closed the gap by drawing down above-ground stockpiles that are not unlimited. When mine supply cannot grow, every regional threat to it matters more, because there is nothing spare to make up the difference.
Peru sits right at the center of that math. The survey already expects Peruvian output to fall in 2026 on weaker lead and zinc production, and names Peru first among the declines that outweigh recovering output in Mexico and leave the global total slightly lower. In other words, Peru is already forecast to be a drag on world supply before any new political unrest is added. A wave of protest that stalled projects or blocked roads would push in the same direction, from an already flat base.
What this means to Silver investorsThe practical lesson is that silver's supply risk is concentrated in a handful of countries, and it is the kind of risk that builds quietly rather than announcing itself.
An oil shock or a war moves the price this week, and it is easy to watch. A president-elect's mining agenda, a study on rural protest, an emergency energy decree: these move nothing today, and they never generate a dramatic one-day chart. But they accumulate. Peru, Mexico, and China between them dominate the world's mined and refined silver, and in a single fortnight all three showed up on the risk ledger at once, through Peru's unrest study, a US-Mexico trade review, and China's export controls. None of them removed an ounce from the market in July. What they did was raise the political premium sitting over the supply that has to fill a persistent shortfall.
That shortfall is the anchor. The market is forecast to run a sixth consecutive annual deficit of 46.3 million ounces in 2026, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. A deficit means the world is consuming more silver than it produces and recycles, and covering the difference from existing stocks. Against that backdrop, a threat to roughly a sixth of global mine supply is not a footnote. It is a threat to the single side of the equation that has no slack left in it.
None of this is a forecast about next week's price, which will keep taking its cues from oil, the dollar, and the Federal Reserve. It is a point about the ground underneath the price. If you follow how silver has traded in 2026, you will see the sharp moves come and go with the macro headlines, while the longer-term case for silver rests on a supply base that is flat, concentrated, and increasingly political. The war grabbed the headlines in July. Peru is the one worth watching after they fade, and it is exactly the kind of slow, structural risk the framework in Silver Rising is built to track.
Peru's supply risk is one dimension of the 100-catalyst framework I analyze in Silver Rising, alongside the five other Deep Dives in this issue of the Silver Catalyst newsletter.
Cena zlata klesla téměř o 30 % od lednového rekordu, protože vyšší reálné výnosy a jestřábí Fed tlačí na kov. Commerzbank snížila výhled na konec roku na 4 500 USD za trojskou unci.
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch and Thu Lan Nguyen note that the Gold price has dropped nearly 30% from its January record as higher real yields and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations weigh on the metal. The bank cuts its year-end Gold forecast to USD 4,500 per troy ounce, but still projects a move to USD 5,000 by end-2027 if Fed rates stay unchanged and later fall.
Forecast cut but recovery seen later"We are lowering our year-end gold price forecast to USD 4,500 per troy ounce (previously: USD 4,800). This reflects the significant fall in prices, which can be attributed to the Fed adopting a more hawkish stance than expected."
"Nevertheless, there is potential for the gold price to recover from its current level, as we consider current market expectations of Fed rate hikes to be excessive and anticipate that Fed interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of the year."
"In this scenario, the Fed would likely refrain from raising interest rates and might even cut its key interest rate from mid-2027 onwards, as the 2% target would then be reached in spring 2027. This provides scope for a further price increase next year to USD 5,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2027 (previous forecast: USD 5,200)."
"However, without a reversal in interest rate expectations, a lasting return of ETF investors and a recovery in the gold price are unlikely."
"As long as this remains the case, gold is unlikely to benefit disproportionately from increased demand for safe havens."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Stříbro XAG/USD se drží v pásmu 55,00–62,00 USD, zatímco trh čeká na středeční rozhodnutí Fedu. Nečekané zvýšení sazeb by mohlo stlačit cenu pod 55 USD.
Silver (XAG/USD) reverses part of its earlier gains on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after opening the week with a bearish gap following a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran.
At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $58.34, up 0.37% on the day, after briefly climbing above $60 earlier during the Asian trading session.
XAG/USD has traded largely within a $55.00-$62.00 range in recent weeks, with hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations capping upside attempts.
Could Wednesday’s Fed interest-rate decision trigger Silver’s next directional move?The US central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, although a surprise hike cannot be ruled out. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders price in around a 35% chance of an immediate increase.
A surprise rate hike would likely be the most bearish outcome for Silver. Higher interest rates would strengthen the US Dollar and push US Treasury yields higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver. Such an outcome could trigger a break below the lower end of its recent range at $55.
A hawkish hold could also put the $55 support level at risk if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasises persistent inflation concerns and signals that a rate hike later this year remains likely.
On the other hand, a dovish hold could provide relief for Silver, although it is not the base-case scenario. If the Fed adopts a less hawkish tone than markets expect, traders could scale back rate-hike bets, increasing the chances of a recovery above $62.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, XAG/USD retains a bearish bias despite showing signs of stabilization. Buyers are struggling near the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.75.
Momentum shows tentative improvement, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers toward the mid-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory, hinting that selling pressure is losing intensity rather than that a bullish reversal is underway.
The 21-day SMA at $58.75 offers immediate resistance, followed by $62, the upper boundary of the recent range. A decisive break above this level could expose the 50-day SMA at $65, followed by the 100-day SMA at $70.94.
On the downside, $55 provides initial support. A daily close below this level could open the door toward the psychological $50 mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
UBS varuje, že zlato může krátkodobě dál oslabovat kvůli vyšším výnosům dluhopisů a nižším geopolitickým rizikům. Cíl 5 200 USD za unci do června 2027 ale ponechává.
UBS believes gold prices could face further near-term pressure from rising bond yields and easing geopolitical risk, but says any pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
The bank continues to target $5,200 per ounce by mid-2027, arguing that structural demand from central banks and investors remains intact.
The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded around $4,080 on Monday after extending its consolidation around the $4,000 level, well below this year's record highs above $5,300.
Image: XAU/USD 1 year chart The one-year chart shows gold retreating from its March peak above $5,300 before stabilising around the $4,000 level.
UBS believes the broader bull market remains intact despite the correction.
UBS says the precious metal has entered a consolidation phase as investors weigh stronger US economic data against persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
The bank notes that higher Treasury yields and a more cautious outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts could generate further short-term weakness.
"Near-term risks are skewed towards a deeper pullback."
However, UBS argues that the longer-term investment case has changed little.
"We continue to expect gold to reach USD 5,200/oz by June 2027."
According to the bank, structural demand from central banks remains exceptionally strong, while investors are likely to increase allocations once interest-rate uncertainty begins to fade.
UBS also believes that geopolitical tensions continue to provide an important backstop for prices.
"Periods of weakness should be viewed as opportunities to add exposure."
The bank maintains that any decline towards the $3,850 area would represent an attractive entry point for long-term investors rather than signalling the end of the bull market.
Gold Forecast: UBS Says Structural Drivers Remain Intact UBS expects gold to remain volatile over the coming months as markets respond to changing expectations for US monetary policy.
Even so, the bank believes higher real yields are unlikely to outweigh the combination of central bank buying, continued reserve diversification and safe-haven demand.
Image: Gold price in US Dollars (USD) 1 day chart The one-day chart highlights gold's consolidation around $4,080, with prices struggling to break higher as stronger US yields offset continued safe-haven demand.
While UBS accepts that gold may remain rangebound in the short term, it continues to forecast a renewed advance over the next year, with $5,200 remaining its central price target by mid-2027.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The USD/INR pair fell nearly 0.7% after failing to breach 97.00, driven by active RBI intervention and declining crude oil prices The pair’s rejection near higher levels echoes mid-May failures around 97.00, highlighting persistent resistance without stronger supporting catalysts Rising oil prices and US inflation present key risks, while delayed exporter dollar conversions offer opportunities for further rupee appreciation The USD/INR currency pair experienced a notable reversal on Monday, declining by nearly 0.7% after a period of steady gains since late June. The Indian rupee strengthened, with early trading showing gains of approximately 28 paise, reaching levels near 96.25 against the US dollar, before settling in the mid-95.80s.
This movement mirrors previous attempts to push towards the 97.00 psychological level, including a peak in mid-May. Such instances where a clear trend encounters significant resistance often lead market participants to consider whether the change is temporary or signals a broader shift.
What Drove the Latest Decline? The main source of pressure was a sharp drop in crude oil prices. Brent futures fell over 4% to about $92.74 per barrel, which eased pressure on India’s large oil import bill. Adding to this, positive signals from West Asia emerged, where the United States and Iran indicated a halt to strikes and opened the door for diplomatic talks.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said negotiations were progressing on multiple fronts. This helped reduce the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed oil prices higher and boosted dollar demand.
A softer US dollar index, which came down from its highs, also helped. Strong buying in domestic equity markets encouraged capital flows, which in turn benefited the rupee.
A Familiar Ceiling Near 97.00 Today’s pullback feels like history repeating. Back in mid-May, USD/INR pushed toward the 97.00 mark but just couldn’t hold. The pair swung through one of its widest ranges in modern history in the first half of 2026, hitting an all-time record high of 96.84 on May 20. It then recovered partly to around 94.35 by late H1. That recovery was helped by RBI intervention, falling crude prices, and a coordinated package of capital-account reforms.
Now, the pattern feels almost repetitive. The pair climbed back toward similar territory over the past week. Wise’s exchange rate data shows it hit a high of 96.888 on July 23, 2026, before rolling over again. Today’s dip to a low of 96.166 on July 27, 2026, suggests the 97.00 zone remains a meaningful resistance level. The pair has now failed to clear it twice.
Risks and Opportunities for Investors For investors and traders monitoring the USD/INR pair, the current situation presents a balanced outlook. Repeated rejections near the 97.00 level indicate a technical ceiling, likely reinforced by consistent dollar selling, potentially including actions by the RBI.
Opportunities may arise for those anticipating a reduction in market volatility. A sustained decrease in oil prices would positively impact India’s macroeconomic balance by reducing the import bill and inflationary pressures.
However, underlying factors that could drive the pair higher remain. Elevated crude oil prices linked to tensions in West Asia and ongoing foreign portfolio outflows are persistent risks that could push USD/INR back towards its recent highs.
Why did USD/INR decline sharply today?
Falling crude oil prices and signals of easing US-Iran tensions reduced dollar demand and supported the rupee in Monday’s session.
How does this compare to earlier moves towards 97.00?
Similar to mid-May, advances near 97.00 failed to sustain, reflecting market caution at higher levels without stronger catalyst.
What should investors watch for in USD/INR going forward?
Going forward, investors should monitor crude oil price movements, the trend of foreign institutional investor outflows, and whether the 97.00 level holds as resistance or experiences a decisive break.
Zlato na začátku týdne vyskočilo asi o 1,5 % v asijském obchodování a znovu prorazilo nad 4 100 USD. Ustupující napětí mezi USA a Íránem oslabilo dolar a podpořilo cenu.
Gold was among the gainers at the start of the week, as the metal started trading on Monday with gap higher and advanced around 1.5% in Asian trading.
Softer rhetoric in geopolitical front, after US and Iran paused hostilities, opening way for potential diplomatic action, eased inflation concerns and deflated expectations for Fed rate hikes in coming months.
The action weakened the US dollar and provided fresh boost to gold price which probed again through $4100 barrier after the recent weakness found footstep above key $4000 support zone.
The price moved to the upper side of near-term $3950/$4200 range that boosts optimism, however, daily technical structure is improving but still fragile (the price needs to sustain gains above 20DMA ($4072 to keep slight bullish bias, underpinned north-heading 14-d momentum on track to break into positive territory).
In such scenario, $4200 upper breakpoint will remain exposed, with firm break here to generate initial reversal signal and formation of base.
Fundamentals need to remain in current mode (or improve further) to continue underpinning near-term action.
Initial support lays at $4072 (20DMA) followed by $4052 (10DMA) loss of which would hurt fresh bulls and risk retest of range floor.
GBP/CAD se drží nad 1,8800 a trh čeká na rozhodnutí BoE, které může pár posunout zpět k 1,8900. Minulý týden skončil asi 0,4 % níže kvůli obavám o britské finance a dražší ropě.
GBP/CAD could recover towards 1.8900 this week, although the Bank of England decision, UK fiscal concerns and volatile oil prices will determine whether the rebound can hold. The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) opened the new week near CA$1.8820, having recovered from last week’s three-week low around CA$1.8740.
GBP/CAD nevertheless ended the previous week approximately 0.4% lower, as UK fiscal concerns weighed on Pound Sterling while rising oil prices supported the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.8819 (+0.20%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.608296 (+0.35%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.4096 (+0.01%)
Image: GBP/CAD Technical Outlook Ahead of the Bank of England Decision Near-term momentum has improved after GBP/CAD moved back above the 1.8800 area.
The 15-minute chart shows the pair holding above its short-term moving average and session VWAP, while the relative strength index remains positive without signalling an extreme overbought position.
Initial resistance is located around 1.8830. A sustained break above this level could open the way towards 1.8870 and then the psychologically important 1.8900 area.
On the downside, 1.8800 is the first support to watch. A break beneath 1.8780 would weaken the recovery and expose last week’s low near 1.8740.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Bank of England Holds the Key Thursday’s Bank of England decision will provide the week’s main test for Sterling.
The Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, meaning the vote split, updated forecasts and guidance on future tightening will be more important than the decision itself.
At the previous meeting, two Monetary Policy Committee members voted for an immediate increase to 4.00%.
Further concern about the inflationary impact of elevated energy prices could therefore reinforce expectations that the Bank may raise rates later this year.
A relatively hawkish decision, particularly one that keeps a September increase under consideration, would support a GBP/CAD move through 1.8830 and towards 1.8900.
However, Pound Sterling could retreat if the Bank emphasises weaker growth, softer headline inflation or the risk that higher energy costs will damage demand rather than create persistent domestic inflation.
UK political and fiscal developments will remain an additional risk.
The Pound struggled last week after Prime Minister Andy Burnham appointed John Healey as Chancellor and investors questioned how the government’s proposed tax reductions would be funded.
This political uncertainty overshadowed stronger-than-expected UK retail sales and business activity figures, preventing Sterling from making a sustained recovery.
Oil Prices and Canadian GDP Could Support the Loonie For the Canadian Dollar, oil prices are likely to remain at least as important as domestic data.
Crude prices surged last week following attacks on Saudi tankers and infrastructure around the Red Sea, but fell sharply on Monday as a pause in US-Iran attacks encouraged hopes of renewed diplomacy.
Shipping disruption through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait means the risk premium has not disappeared, leaving CAD sensitive to further geopolitical headlines.
A renewed rise in Brent crude would probably favour the Canadian Dollar and could push GBP/CAD back towards 1.8780.
Conversely, a continued oil-price correction would remove an important source of CAD support.
Friday’s Canadian GDP report will provide the main domestic event.
Statistics Canada will publish May’s GDP figures alongside an advance estimate for June, following April’s 0.5% expansion.
Stronger growth would reinforce the downside risk for GBP/CAD.
Nevertheless, the central forecast is for the pair to remain supported above 1.8780, with a hawkish Bank of England outcome potentially driving a recovery towards 1.8870–1.8900.
USD/CAD klesl pod 1,4100 na zhruba 1,4080, protože rostoucí ceny ropy a slabší dolar podpořily kanadský dolar. Nová americká 50% cla na vybrané kanadské zboží ale dál drží pár pod tlakem.
Rising crude oil prices and a weakening greenback pushed USD/CAD back below 1.4100, threatening a return to its July downward channel Central bank divergence remains a risk, as a cautious Bank of Canada (BoC) and hawkish Federal Reserve could limit further loonie gains The Bank of Canada’s steady policy rate keeps interest rate differentials tilted in favor of greenback dip-buyers on deeper pullbacks The US dollar briefly halted the Canadian dollar’s recent climb earlier this week. But it started falling again yesterday and still looks weak today. Now trading below 1.4100, around 1.4080, investors wonder if USD/CAD will return to the steady decline it had between late June and mid-July.
What Broke the Downtrend The brief pause in the downtrend had a clear cause. On Monday, the US administration announced new 50% tariffs on various Canadian goods, including wine, dairy, and cement. This action was stated as a response to what the US described as discriminatory practices against American products in Canada.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called this the latest in a series of unilateral US trade actions. He said Canada had “merely matched” prior US measures. Headlines like that usually hit the loonie first and hardest, which explains why the dollar strengthened Monday and Tuesday.
What Is Driving the Loonie’s Rebound? A significant increase in global crude oil prices is the primary driver behind the Canadian dollar’s resurgence. As a major exporter of commodities, Canada benefits directly from rising crude prices. Oil prices have reached new multi-week highs, which has helped to offset recent domestic challenges and provide strong fundamental support for the Canadian dollar.
Potential Risks Beneath the Surface Despite the current trend, a return to a consistent downtrend is not guaranteed. The tariffs announced on Monday will take effect in 30 days. If trade tensions escalate further before then, sentiment towards Canadian assets could shift negatively, irrespective of oil prices or interest rate movements.
While the current trend favors a stronger Canadian dollar, underlying risks require careful assessment. Uncertainties surrounding the USMCA trade agreement renewal and potential tariff discussions remain significant factors that could strengthen the US dollar if tensions increase.
Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Canada (BoC) might maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, influenced by recent lower domestic consumer price index (CPI) figures. In contrast, persistent US inflation data suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its restrictive monetary policy for a longer period.
Investors should consider USD/CAD with a balanced view. Those expecting further gains in the Canadian dollar might explore strategies that leverage CAD strength, such as hedging US dollar exposure or investing in Canadian assets sensitive to commodity prices.
Effective risk management remains crucial. Diversification and close attention to central bank statements, oil market developments, and trade news will be essential for navigating market fluctuations. Adopting a flexible approach that adapts to evolving data, rather than making large directional bets, is likely to better serve long-term investment goals.
Is USD/CAD returning to its prior downward channel?
The recent weakness in the US dollar suggests a potential return to the late June to mid-July downtrend if current momentum continues.
What risks could impact USD/CAD trajectory?
Trade tensions related to the USMCA, geopolitical shocks in the energy sector, and differing monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada present notable risks of upward movement for the pair.
How do central bank interest rate expectations affect the USD/CAD outlook?
A potentially cautious Bank of Canada alongside a hawkish Federal Reserve could limit severe downside losses for USD/CAD.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the NZD/USD pair dipping below 0.5800, after being rejected at the 0.5875 area earlier in the week. The Kiwi Dollar is giving away previous gains as higher Oil prices and concerns about the escalation of the Middle East conflict have offset the positive impact of the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) monetary policy stance.
The dismal market mood is finally taking a toll on the risk-sensitive Kiwi, as tensions in the Middle East remain high and reports of attacks on vessels sailing through the Red Sea raise concerns that the conflict might extend through the region, boosting fears of disruptions in Oil supply.
Against this background, the barrel of Brent Oil has crossed the $90 line for the first time in the last six weeks. This has prompted investors to shift their focus from inflation to the negative impact on economic growth of another energy shock, which will, ultimately, limit the central bank’s margin to tighten its monetary policy.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at the 0.5750 area
NZD/USD trades just below 0.5800, with bears gathering pace as intraday momentum indicators tread further within negative territory. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) has retreated to 35, approaching oversold levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, altogether hinting at waning downside momentum but not yet at a clear reversal.
The pair might find some support at previous resistance around 0.5790 (July 10, 13 highs), although the key support area lies at the confluence of the immediate trendline support and the July 13 low, in the area of 0.5750. A confirmation below here would put bears in control, and bring the July 6 and 8 lows, around 0.5675, into focus.
Upside attempts, on the contrary, have been contained below 0.5825 on Thursday, while the key resistance area is in the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June selloff, at 0.5855, and Tuesday's high, at the mentioned 0.5875, which has capped bulls several times during the current month.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%0.02%0.11%-0.13%-0.08%0.26%0.05%EUR0.08%0.11%0.21%-0.05%0.00%0.36%0.13%GBP-0.02%-0.11%0.11%-0.17%-0.11%0.25%0.02%JPY-0.11%-0.21%-0.11%-0.25%-0.20%0.13%-0.08%CAD0.13%0.05%0.17%0.25%0.04%0.39%0.16%AUD0.08%-0.00%0.11%0.20%-0.04%0.36%0.16%NZD-0.26%-0.36%-0.25%-0.13%-0.39%-0.36%-0.24%CHF-0.05%-0.13%-0.02%0.08%-0.16%-0.16%0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
EUR/CHF tento týden prorazil nad 0,9278, protože růst cen ropy znovu zvýšil inflační obavy a posílil sázky na jestřábější ECB. Trh čeká, zda Christine Lagarde tato očekávání potvrdí, nebo utlumí.
EUR/CHF may already be telling investors what to expect from today’s European Central Bank meeting. The cross broke decisively above 0.9278 this week, extending its recent rally as surging oil prices revived inflation concerns across Europe. The move suggests markets have begun positioning for a relatively more hawkish ECB even though policymakers are almost universally expected to leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.25%. With the decision itself largely priced in, attention will instead turn to whether President Christine Lagarde validates—or pushes back against—the hawkish repricing already underway.
The backdrop confronting the Governing Council has changed dramatically since it last met in June. At that meeting, Brent crude was also trading around $95 a barrel, but the trend pointed firmly lower as markets anticipated a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations. Optimism was soon rewarded with a 60-day ceasefire announced on June 17, sending Brent to around $70 by early July and reinforcing expectations that energy-driven inflation would continue to ease. That narrative has since been turned on its head. The ceasefire has collapsed, military conflict has resumed, shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, and Brent has climbed back above $95. The crucial difference is that oil is now surging rather than falling, fundamentally changing the inflation outlook facing European policymakers.
Financial markets appear to have recognized that shift before the ECB has had a chance to respond. This week’s move in EUR/CHF suggests investors are increasingly pricing a policy outlook that is more hawkish than it appeared only a few weeks ago. While markets are not yet fully convinced another rate hike will follow, they have become less willing to assume June’s increase marked the end of the tightening cycle. The renewed rise in energy prices has reopened the possibility that inflation could prove more persistent than previously expected.
That leaves Lagarde’s press conference carrying far greater significance than the policy announcement itself. Given the speed at which geopolitical developments are evolving, the ECB is unlikely to provide firm forward guidance. The most likely message is that inflation risks have shifted to the upside, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz remains exceptionally high, and policy decisions will continue to depend on incoming data. Preserving flexibility is likely to take precedence over signalling a specific policy path.
The key question is whether Lagarde chooses to resist growing market expectations for another rate hike as early as September. Such a question is certain to surface during the press conference. If she explicitly dismisses those expectations, recent Euro gains could fade as markets pare back hawkish bets. On the other hand, if she simply acknowledges heightened inflation risks without challenging current pricing, investors may interpret that as tacit acceptance that another hike remains a live possibility should the energy shock persist.
Meanwhile, EUR/CHF could emerge as the cleaner expression of today’s outcome than EUR/USD. Any hawkish shift from the ECB is likely to be offset by similar expectations that higher oil prices will also keep the Federal Reserve on a tighter path. By contrast, the Swiss National Bank is still widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 0.00% through the remainder of the year, leaving EUR/CHF more directly exposed to changes in ECB expectations.
Technically for EUR/CHF, Wednesday’s break above 0.9278 resumed the rally from March’s 0.8979 low and keeps the pair on course for 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379. Just beyond lies the key structural resistance at 0.9394. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the case for a medium-term bullish reversal, reinforcing the view that investors are pricing a widening policy divergence between Frankfurt and Zurich rather than simply reacting to day-to-day geopolitical headlines.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Zlato XAU/USD klesá z dvoutýdenních maxim 4 166 USD, protože rostoucí napětí na Blízkém východě a vyšší ceny ropy znovu podporují očekávání dřívějšího zvyšování sazeb Fedu.
Gold is snapping its recent recovery, struggling above $4,100 early Thursday, as both fundamental and technical factors warrant caution for buyers.
Gold reverses from two-week highsGold is extending its pullback from two-week highs of $4,166 reached on Wednesday, even as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the backfoot.
Looming Japanese intervention risks keep Greenback traders cautious amid potential downside risk to the USD/JPY pair, which could have a ‘rub-off’ effect on the buck.
Additionally, the earnings reports from the American tech titans, Alphabet and Tesla, showed robust spending plans for Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure, lifting chipmakers and major Asian indices. The cautious optimism is also rendering negative for the safe-haven US Dollar.
However, expectations of sooner (than later) interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are back on the table, courtesy of the widening Middle East conflict-led surging Oil prices and increasing inflation fears, which continue to limit the USD downside and reinforce bearish pressure on non-yielding assets such as Gold.
Therefore, the latest leg down is sponsored by that narrative, especially after the US launched a new wave of strikes on Iran and Yemen's Houthis targeted oil tankers in the Red Sea, widening the scope of a conflict that has once again rattled global markets.
Late Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Tehran would respond in kind to any attack on its infrastructure after US President Donald Trump threatened to bomb a bridge or power plant for every ship targeted in the Strait of Hormuz.
Looking ahead, Gold remains in the eye of the storm amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision.
Although the ECB is widely anticipated to hold key rates this Thursday, any signs of a possibility of a September rate hike could ramp up hawkish sentiment around the central bank. This could further contribute to the retracement in Gold.
Meanwhile, Gold’s daily technical setup continues to caution buyers as they keenly await confirmation of the impending Bear Cross while momentum stays neutral.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,117.19, holding below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,242.58 and well under the 100-day and 200-day SMAs clustered around $4,491, which keeps the near-term bias bearish despite the latest rebound. The metal remains above the 21-day SMA at $4,071.54, suggesting some short-term demand, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 49 points to neutral momentum rather than a decisive recovery.
Additionally, keeping buyers defensive, the 100-day SMA has crossed the 200-day SMA from above, but a confirmation on a daily candlestick closing basis is awaited to confirm a Bear Cross.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA at $4,242.58, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,491.02 and the 200-day SMA at $4,495.96, where a dense supply zone could cap further gains. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 21-day SMA at $4,071.54; a daily close below this floor would likely expose the bearish trend to renewed pressure toward lower levels not yet defined by the current moving-average structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold upside capped as energy and Fed expectations stay in focusAnalysts at ING highlight that gold is "likely to remain sensitive to developments in energy markets and expectations for US monetary policy," keeping the metal vulnerable to shifts in both oil prices and the Fed outlook. They add that silver "could continue to outperform if strength in industrial metals persists alongside safe-haven demand," suggesting the white metal may benefit from both industrial and defensive flows.
Echoing the cautious tone, OCBC notes that "near term, price action may remain two-way," but stresses that "a more sustained recovery likely requires oil prices to back off, some easing in real yields and Fed tightening expectations." Until those conditions materialise, OCBC warns that "upside may remain capped" for gold.
Ropa roste k šestiměsíčnímu maximu kvůli eskalaci napětí na Blízkém východě a obavám z narušení dodávek. USD/JPY zároveň vystoupal nad 163, což zvyšuje riziko zásahu japonských úřadů.
Oil rises towards a 6-week high as Middle East tensions escalate Oil prices are extending gains towards a six-week high amid fears of further supply disruption after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire for an 11th consecutive night. Meanwhile, oil tankers made U-turns in the Red Sea following warnings of disruption from Iran-backed Houthi forces.
The continued exchange of strikes between the U.S. and Iran has heightened concerns over further disruption to energy supplies. Despite talk of mediation earlier in the week, hostilities appear to be escalating rather than easing.
Adding to those concerns, the Iran-backed Houthis have opened a new front by threatening to target vessels carrying Saudi crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. They have also announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.
The Bab el-Mandeb has become an increasingly important route for Saudi crude exports as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined sharply since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed. Three Saudi oil tankers reportedly made U-turns in the Red Sea yesterday.
Should the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also become inaccessible, tankers would be forced to reroute via the Suez Canal, adding both time and cost to shipments to Asia.
Oil forecast – technical analysis
Oil broke above the symmetrical triangle pattern before running into resistance around $87. The price continues to trade above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, as well as the rising trendline support. Combined with the RSI holding above 50, this keeps the near-term outlook constructive.
Buyers will look to break above $88, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $55–$120 move. A rise above here brings $95, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, into focus, ahead of the $100 psychological level.
Initial support can be seen at $84.50, ahead of the rising trendline, the 50-day EMA at $81.85, and $80, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Below there, support is seen around $78, where the 200-day EMA sits. A break below this level could see sellers gain traction towards $70.67, the July low.
USD/JPY on intervention watch above 163 USD/JPY has climbed to a fresh 40-year high above 163 as rising oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields continue to support the dollar, leaving investors increasingly nervous about the risk of Japanese intervention.
The dollar is finding support from safe-haven demand as the conflict in the Middle East continues.
At the same time, rising oil prices are adding to inflation concerns, helping push the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since May earlier this week.
However, the Japanese yen is failing to benefit from safe-haven demand given Japan's reliance on imported energy, making it particularly vulnerable when oil prices rise.
With the yen at its weakest level since 1986, markets remain on intervention watch after Japanese authorities stepped in during both April and May once USD/JPY moved above 160.
Previous intervention only slowed the move temporarily, with the underlying uptrend quickly reasserting itself.
With USD/JPY now trading above 163, the risk of another intervention is rising. However, while intervention can slow momentum, it rarely changes the broader trend unless it is backed by a more hawkish Bank of Japan and a less hawkish Federal Reserve.
For now, the wide interest rate differential continues to favour the dollar, making yen rallies attractive selling opportunities.
While the U.S. economic calendar is relatively quiet this week, attention will be on Friday's PMI data. In Japan, focus will turn to inflation figures released early Friday morning.
USD/JPY forecast – technical analysis
USD/JPY continues to extend its bullish run, trading above its rising trendline and both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs after climbing to 163.25.
However, momentum is beginning to slow, and the bearish RSI divergence suggests buyers should be a little more cautious.
Even so, buyers will look to extend gains towards 164.00, the next key psychological level.
On the downside, initial support can be be seen around 162.50. A break below here brings the 50-day SMA around 161.00 into focus before attention turns to the 160.00 support zone.
USD/CAD se drží poblíž 1,4100, protože poptávka po bezpečném dolaru převažuje nad podporou kanadského dolaru z vyšších cen ropy. Trh sleduje rezistenci 1,4115.
USD/CAD held near 1.4100 after extending its recovery, with traders watching the key 1.4115 resistance level. Safe-haven demand for the US dollar continues to outweigh support for the Canadian dollar from higher crude oil prices. A break above 1.4115 could strengthen bullish momentum, while oil prices and US economic data remain the next major catalysts. The USD/CAD exchange rate traded around 1.4101 on Tuesday after recovering steadily over the past several sessions, as renewed demand for the US dollar continued to offset the Canadian dollar’s traditional support from rising crude oil prices.
The pair has advanced despite Brent crude remaining above $90 per barrel, highlighting how geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for higher US interest rates have become the dominant drivers of currency markets.
Investors are now watching whether USD/CAD can break above 1.4115, a level that could determine whether the pair resumes its broader uptrend.
Why Is USD/CAD Rising Today? The US dollar has regained strength as investors continue to favour safe-haven assets amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
The conflict has pushed oil prices sharply higher, raising concerns that inflation could remain elevated and encouraging expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates restrictive for longer.
Those expectations have supported US Treasury yields and increased demand for the dollar across the forex market.
Ordinarily, rising oil prices benefit the Canadian dollar because Canada is one of the world’s largest crude exporters. However, the current geopolitical environment has strengthened the US dollar by an even greater margin, allowing USD/CAD to continue climbing despite favourable conditions for the loonie.
How Do Higher Oil Prices Affect USD/CAD? Crude oil remains one of the most important drivers of the Canadian dollar.
When oil prices rise, Canada’s export revenues typically increase, improving the country’s trade balance and supporting the value of the Canadian dollar.
This week, however, that relationship has weakened.
Brent crude has remained above $90 per barrel after threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over global energy supplies. Instead of boosting the Canadian dollar, the oil rally has primarily fuelled inflation concerns, strengthening demand for the US dollar and limiting gains for commodity-linked currencies.
As long as geopolitical risks continue driving oil prices higher, the Canadian dollar may struggle to fully benefit from stronger energy markets.
Will USD/CAD Break Above 1.4115? The 1.4115 level has become the key technical hurdle for USD/CAD. ActionForex notes that a decisive move above this resistance would confirm that the recent pullback from 1.4247 has likely ended and increase the probability of another test of that July high.
Conversely, failure to break above 1.4115 could trigger short-term profit-taking after the pair’s recent rally. For now, the broader outlook remains constructive while the pair continues trading comfortably above the 1.3954 support area.
USD/CAD Outlook The short-term USD/CAD outlook remains tilted to the upside while the pair trades just below the key 1.4115 resistance level.
Although elevated oil prices would normally strengthen the Canadian dollar, safe-haven demand for the US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer continue to dominate market sentiment.
Whether USD/CAD extends its recovery will likely depend on upcoming US economic data, developments in the Middle East and the direction of crude oil prices. A convincing move above 1.4115 would strengthen the case for another attempt at 1.4247, while renewed strength in the Canadian dollar could limit further gains if oil prices continue climbing.
Why is USD/CAD rising today?
USD/CAD is rising as investors buy the US dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty and expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer. Safe-haven demand has outweighed support for the Canadian dollar from stronger oil prices.
How do oil prices affect USD/CAD?
Higher oil prices usually strengthen the Canadian dollar because Canada is a major oil exporter. A stronger Canadian dollar typically pushes USD/CAD lower. However, during periods of heightened geopolitical risk, the US dollar can outperform despite rising crude prices.
Will USD/CAD break above 1.4115?
The 1.4115 level is the next key resistance for USD/CAD. A sustained break above this level could signal a continuation of the recent recovery and open the door for a retest of the 1.4247 high.
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains ground to around $4,080 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal rebounds as safe-haven demand intensified globally after retreating to the $4,000 psychological level in the previous session.
Renewed military tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have injected high volatility into commodities, prompting traders to rotate capital back into safe-haven yellow metal. Additionally, analysts said that the buying comes with the macro backdrop largely unchanged. “Today’s move looks more like dip-buying than a response to new headlines,” said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING.
Traders continue to weigh escalations in the US-Iran war. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has carried out its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran since US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire “over,” while Tehran’s forces have struck US military assets across the Middle East and its Houthi allies have declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
Markets will closely monitor Middle East tensions for signs that higher energy costs could stoke inflation, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten policy. Swap traders see low odds of the Fed raising rates at its next meeting in July after softer US inflation data, although traders have fully priced in at least one hike by the end of the year.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Goldman Sachs uvádí, že silné nákupy centrálních bank dávají zlatu podporu cen navzdory tlaku vyšších výnosů amerických dluhopisů. V květnu nakoupily dalších 31 tun.
Gold prices remain under pressure from elevated US bond yields, but Goldman Sachs believes robust central bank demand should prevent any sustained sell-off, providing a solid floor for the precious metal despite near-term headwinds.
The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded around $4,300 on Tuesday after retreating from recent highs, as stronger US economic data and higher Treasury yields weighed on investor demand.
Despite the recent pullback, Goldman Sachs remains constructive on the longer-term outlook, arguing that official sector buying continues to underpin the market.
Image: Gold price in US Dollars - 7 day chart Goldman Sachs notes that central banks purchased another 31 tonnes of gold in May, well above the long-run monthly average and consistent with the steady accumulation seen over the past three years.
"Strong central bank buying in May provides a price floor."
The bank believes official-sector demand has fundamentally changed the gold market by reducing the likelihood of deep and prolonged corrections.
"We continue to expect structurally strong central bank demand."
Goldman Sachs acknowledges that higher real interest rates could continue to generate temporary selling pressure, particularly through exchange-traded funds and speculative positioning.
"Rates pressure is likely to be temporary."
The bank argues that while higher yields have historically weighed on gold, central bank buying is now providing an increasingly important offset.
"Official sector purchases should cushion downside risks."
Image: XAU/USD 1 year chart Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: Goldman Sachs Still Sees Longer-Term Upside Goldman Sachs expects near-term volatility to persist while markets assess the outlook for US interest rates.
However, the bank believes any weakness driven by higher yields should prove temporary because central bank demand remains exceptionally strong.
"We expect continued robust official-sector buying to underpin prices."
For gold investors, Goldman Sachs argues that the current environment differs markedly from previous periods of rising yields, with central bank diversification creating a durable source of demand that should continue to support gold over the medium term.
Gold rose around 1.5% on Tuesday as fresh signals of diplomatic action to de-escalate US-Iran war cooled inflation risks and expected to ease pressure on the US central bank.
Quick change in sentiment made the yellow metal more attractive to investors, with the latest bounce from very significant $4000 support zone (contained several attacks in past one month) has so far retraced 50% of $4203/$3960 bear-leg and eased immediate downside risk.
Improving technical picture (price broke above 10 and 20 DMAs ($4050 and $4062 respectively and 14-d momentum rises into positive territory) supports the action, although recent gains are still insufficient to generate signal of direction change.
The price may extend gains if favorable fundamentals persist, with break through $4110 (Fibo 61.8%) and $4145 (Fibo 76.4%) to further strengthen near-term structure and expose upper breakpoint at $4203 (recovery top / near-term range ceiling) violation of which to generate initial reversal signal.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Tuesday as buying interest around the $4,000 psychological level supports prices, while traders assess developments in the Middle East and their potential economic fallout. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,058, up 1.27% on the day.
The United States military carried out a tenth consecutive night of strikes against Iran, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards targeted US military assets across the region.
Despite the continued military exchanges, diplomatic efforts are underway. The Associated Press reported that Iranian officials began meeting with mediators in Pakistan on Tuesday. Reuters reported on Monday that mediators had offered Tehran a 10-day ceasefire to try to bring last month’s interim agreement back on track.
With the situation still in flux, the US Dollar (USD) remains the preferred safe-haven asset, while Oil prices hold close to their highest level in more than a month. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering just below the 101.00 mark, little changed on the day.
Although Gold is attempting to establish a base above the $4,000 psychological level, its upside remains limited as elevated energy prices stoke inflation concerns and strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep monetary policy tighter for longer or even raise interest rates.
Higher borrowing costs reduce Gold's appeal, prompting investors to rotate toward interest-bearing assets such as government bonds.
Dollar support builds as Gulf tensions weigh on goldAnalysts at ING note that “the FX market is gradually catching up with developments in the Gulf, where tensions still appear to be escalating, and the Dollar has found broad-based support.” They highlight that US President Donald Trump has “pledged retaliation against Iran following the killing of three US service members in Jordan,” while Houthi militants are “threatening a blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea,” reinforcing the bid for the Dollar as geopolitical risks intensify.
Strategists at OCBC say Gold has "continued to consolidate around recent lows following the sharp pullback earlier this month," adding that "near term, price action may remain two-way, but a more sustained recovery likely requires oil prices to back off, some easing in real yields and Fed tightening expectations. Until then, upside may remain capped."
XAU/USD is testing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,062. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 on the daily chart is below the neutral 50 level, indicating weak bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 39 suggests the prevailing trend remains strong despite the near-term stabilization.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the $4,000 psychological level, followed by the lower Bollinger Band at $3,948. A break below this area could expose the horizontal support at $3,800.
On the topside, a sustained move above the Bollinger midline at $4,062 could open the door toward the upper band at $4,175, followed by the $4,200 resistance level. A decisive break above $4,200 would bring the more distant $4,500 barrier into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Kanadský dolar v pondělí oslabil po slabší inflaci a zprávě, že USA uvalí na kanadské produkty nová 50% cla. USD/CAD tak přidal 0,5 % a zaznamenal největší denní zisk za 23 seancí.
The Canadian dollar was the weakest-performing major currency on Monday after softer-than-expected inflation data reduced expectations of further Bank of Canada policy tightening. Cooling headline and core inflation diminished Canada's relative yield advantage, weighing on the Loonie despite the central bank leaving its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. Separately, reports that the US and Iran had signed a memorandum aimed at ending the conflict weighed on oil prices, adding further pressure to the oil-sensitive Canadian dollar. The loonie then came under renewed selling late in the US session after Reuters reported that Washington would impose new 50% tariffs on Canadian products.
Source: LSEG
Trump's Tariffs Add to Pressure on the Canadian Dollar The proposed 50% tariffs on Canadian products add a fresh headwind for the loonie by threatening Canada's export outlook and economic growth. Slower growth could reinforce expectations that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold or even consider easing if the economic impact proves material, reducing the Canadian dollar's yield appeal relative to the US dollar. While the full scope and timing of the tariffs remain uncertain, the announcement was enough to fuel another leg higher in USD/CAD.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar USD/CAD posted its largest daily gain in 23 sessions, rising 0.5% after finding support at the 50-day EMA and the 1.40 handle, strongly suggesting a swing low may be in place, at least in the near term. It has been just under a month since USD/CAD peaked, and recent developments suggest the pair could extend its rebound towards the 2025 high at 1.4140.
The 1-hour chart shows support has emerged around the weekly pivot point for now, although the sharp momentum shift below ¥116 suggests bears may look to sell into minor pullbacks. A break below 115.31 would bring the 115.00 handle into focus, followed by a key support zone around 114.60 where the monthly and weekly pivot points converge.
Source: ICE, TradingView
CAD/JPY Technical Analysis: Canadian Dollar vs Japanese Yen While crude oil prices didn’t exactly roll over on Monday, they did form doji’s on the daily chart to show indecision. Given but WTI and brent crude have stalled around their respective resistance levels, it removes another pillar of support for CAD/JPY – which is leaving bearish reversal signals of its own.
CAD/JPY formed a notable bearish engulfing candle on Monday to mark its second worst day of the month. Given it formed around 1.16 after a solid bounce, the case for a pullback was arguably growing anyway.
The 1-hour chart shows support has been found around the weekly pivot point for now, though the sharp momentum shift below 116 suggests bears may be seeking to fade into minor pullbacks, A break below 115.31 brings the 115 handle, and tight support zone around 114.6 into focus comprising of the monthly and weekly pivot points.
Stříbro (XAG/USD) v pondělí stouplo o 1,6 % na 56,90 USD za unci díky poptávce po bezpečných aktivech. Napětí na Blízkém východě převažuje nad očekáváním zvýšení sazeb Fedu v září, přičemž trh nyní přisuzuje zvýšení sazeb 55,3% šanci.
Silver (XAG/USD) advances toward $56.90 per troy ounce on Monday at the time of writing, gaining 1.6% on the day. The precious metal continues to benefit from safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep risk sentiment under pressure.
The United States (US) has carried out a ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets. In response, Tehran considers the ceasefire between the two countries effectively over, raising concerns about further disruptions to key regional energy supply routes. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that intermediaries have delivered messages to Tehran in recent days aimed at reducing tensions, while stressing that diplomacy remains a tool to pursue the country's national interests.
Concerns intensified further after Yemen's Houthis announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, raising fears of additional disruptions to energy trade. Against this backdrop, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil rebounded from daily lows to near $82.00 per barrel at the time of press, increasing the risk of renewed inflationary pressures.
Higher energy prices are reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening. Speaking on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said inflation remains persistent, strengthening expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now assign a 55.3% chance to a Fed rate hike in September.
The prospect of higher interest rates is typically a headwind for Silver as the precious metal does not generate yield. However, strong safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical tensions is currently allowing the white metal to maintain a bullish bias despite this unfavorable backdrop.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
USD/CAD klesl na téměř měsíční minimum a míří k důležitému supportu kolem 1,3965. Loonie podporuje slabší USD, vyšší ceny ropy a očekávání jestřábějšího tónu BoC.
By the time the Bank of Canada announces its policy decision today, the Canadian Dollar has already built a powerful foundation for further gains. USD/CAD has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a month, supported not by a single catalyst but by three reinforcing forces: a broad retreat in the US Dollar after softer inflation data, higher oil prices that strengthen Canada’s export outlook, and growing expectations that the Bank of Canada may sound more hawkish than markets anticipated only a week ago.
The first two drivers have already reshaped the currency outlook. June’s weaker-than-expected US CPI prompted investors to scale back Federal Reserve tightening expectations, weighing on the Dollar across major currency pairs. At the same time, Brent crude has surged above $86 as renewed US-Iran hostilities threaten energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. For Canada, rising oil prices are more than just a global inflation story—they improve the country’s terms of trade and typically provide direct support for the Canadian Dollar, helping explain why the Loonie has outperformed most of its peers following the inflation data.
The Bank of Canada now has an opportunity either to reinforce or challenge that momentum. Economists overwhelmingly expect a sixth consecutive hold at 2.25%, making the decision itself unlikely to surprise. The more important question is whether Governor Tiff Macklem adjusts his message in response to oil’s renewed surge. His previous characterization of policy as balancing weaker growth against energy-driven inflation was formed before Brent’s latest rally, meaning the Monetary Policy Report may already understate current inflation risks. Markets will therefore pay closer attention to Macklem’s live assessment than to the published projections.
That leaves the accompanying statement and Macklem’s press conference as the key market events. Investors will focus on whether the Governor continues to describe policy as a balanced dilemma or acknowledges that the renewed energy shock has tilted inflation risks higher. Any discussion of the ongoing CUSMA trade review will also be closely watched, as it remains an important downside risk to Canada’s growth outlook. Even without signaling an imminent rate increase, a modestly more hawkish tone could encourage markets to further increase expectations of tightening in early 2027, where pricing is already becoming increasingly balanced.
Technically, USD/CAD is approaching an important inflection point. While the decline from 1.4247 has accelerated, it is still viewed as a correction within the broader uptrend from 1.3480. Strong support is expected between former resistance at 1.3965 and 38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954. Break of 1.4159 minor resistance will indicae that the correction has completed.
However, a decisive break below 1.3954/65 would suggest the advance from 1.3480 has completed as a three-wave corrective rebound after failing near 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.4290. Such a development would shift the near-term technical outlook decisively in favour of further Canadian Dollar strength.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
ING varuje, že EUR/USD zatím drží krátkodobý úrokový diferenciál, ale další růst cen energií by mohl pár stlačit k 1,10. Největší hrozbou je podle banky prudký růst cen plynu a slabší vyhlídky na další zvyšování sazeb ECB.
ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that the EUR/USD short-term rate differential is currently supporting the Euro as Gulf tensions rise, helped by a recovery in EUR front-end rates. However, he doubts this can last if Oil and Gas prices keep climbing, given limited scope for more ECB hikes and worsening eurozone terms of trade. ING warns that EUR/USD could risk a move toward 1.10 under higher energy prices.
Euro buoyed by rates for now"The EUR:USD short-term rate differential is – for now – helping to keep EUR/USD afloat in this Gulf re-escalation. The two-year swap rate gap has re-tightened around 15bp since the start of July, primarily because the rebound in oil prices happened at a time when ECB hike bets were dwindling, leaving more upside room to recover for EUR front-end rates."
"We aren’t convinced this rate gap can offer sustainable support to EUR/USD if energy prices continue to rise though."
"Markets may find it harder to price in more than two ECB hikes by year-end (now, 46bp) considering the less hawkish stance by ECB officials of late, and the medium-term negative implications of an energy crisis – combined with Fed tightening – for the EUR, tend to outweigh the positive of EUR hikes."
"The spike in gas prices is particularly concerning, as it weighs on the eurozone’s terms of trade more than oil."
"In a scenario where Brent returns to $90-100/bl and TTF around €55-60/MWh, a move to 1.10 becomes a tangible risk in EUR/USD."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
GBP/CAD v pondělí klesl, protože růst cen ropy po obnoveném napětí mezi USA a Íránem podpořil kanadský dolar. Ropa na začátku seance vzrostla asi o 4 %.
The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate slipped on Monday as renewed conflict between the US and Iran lifted oil prices and supported the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8931, down around 0.2% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.891014 (-0.36%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.611545 (-0.28%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.41364 (-0.15%)
DAILY RECAP:
The crude-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) firmed on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East triggered a rise in global oil prices.
After a lull in the fighting on Friday, hostilities between the US and Iran resumed on Sunday following an Iranian strike on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The US responded by attacking Iranian targets, with Tehran further retaliating by targeting US allies in neighbouring Gulf states.
Markets are growing increasingly concerned that the conflict could intensify further, limiting shipping in the region. As a result, oil prices rose around 4% at the open on Monday. Although crude trimmed some of these gains as the session went on, CAD remained supported.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) was mixed on Monday as a lack of UK economic data left the currency rudderless.
Sterling was able to avoid steep losses against the rising Canadian Dollar thanks to ongoing political optimism in the UK, with GBP investors remaining confident that the political uncertainty that has dogged the Pound over the past year was coming to an end.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: BoE Comments to Impact the Pound? Looking forward, Tuesday’s session starts with a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey.
Bailey has stuck to a cautious tone in recent weeks, arguing that the bank ought to wait and see how inflation plays out before considering adjusting policy. However, with global energy prices rising amid renewed US-Iran tensions, the Pound could tick higher if the BoE chief strikes a more hawkish chord.
Meanwhile, oil price dynamics are likely to drive the ‘Loonie’. CAD could remain supported if crude continues to climb amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Zlato po pondělním gapu dolů o 20 USD zůstává pod tlakem a trh sleduje klíčovou podporu 4 000 USD. Její proražení by potvrdilo pokračování medvědího trendu.
Gold edged lower after opening with $20 gap lower on Monday, following the latest escalation in the Middle East that fueled inflationary risk and added to expectations that the Fed will keep higher interest rates or possibly opt for rate hikes, providing support to US dollar.
Markets also focus on this week’s key economic data – release of US June inflation report and Fed Chair Warsh’s semiannual testimony on economy, inflation and monetary policy that will add fresh details on overall outlook.
Technical studies on daily chart remain in mainly bearish configuration, following several death-crosses formed during June (20; 30; 55 / 200DMAs), 14-d momentum holding in negative zone and RSI below 50).
Fresh weakness after recent recovery stall, shifts near-term focus to the downside, with initial requirement on weekly close below Fibo support at $4076 (where bears were rejected four times) guarding key supports at $4000/$3950 (psychological / recent spikes below $4K), with firm break here (after a multiple failure) to generate bearish continuation signal of larger downtrend from new historical high.
At the upside, falling 20DMA marks first significant resistance ($4118), ahead of pivotal barrier at $4203 (July 6 recovery peak).
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Zlato zůstává nad 4 000 USD za unci díky očekáváním sazeb v USA a silným nákupům centrálních bank, v čele s Čínou. Peking v červnu zvýšil zlaté rezervy už 20. měsíc v řadě.
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Gold has edged lower after an early advance as traders await the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, but the metal trades in line with evolving US rate expectations and remains supported above $4,000/oz. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz security concerns and persistent official‑sector buying, led by China, underpin the outlook.
Fed path and China buying in focus"Gold edged lower in Tuesday’s afternoon trading after an early advance as investors looked ahead to the release of the June Federal Open Market Committee minutes later this week for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. The metal continues to trade largely in line with shifting US rate expectations. Last week's weaker-than-expected jobs data reduced expectations of additional tightening and helped gold stabilise back above the $4,000/oz level."
"Meanwhile, official-sector demand remains supportive. Data from the People's Bank of China showed it increased its gold reserves for a 20th consecutive month in June. This marks its largest monthly purchase since late 2023."
"The continued accumulation highlights China's ongoing efforts to diversify reserves and reinforces a broader trend of strong central bank buying. It should continue to provide an important source of support for gold prices despite recent volatility."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats by 0.44% on Tuesday as the yellow metal fails to clear $4,200 amid rising US consumer inflation expectations and threats of a resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, following reports of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,146 after peaking at $4,180.
Bullion retreats as yields climb and Hormuz risks returnThe yellow metal seems poised to consolidate after failing to clear a downward-sloping resistance trendline near $4,200, which exacerbated XAU’s drop towards the $4,150 area. Recent data from the NY Fed showed that inflation expectations rose to their highest level since September 2023.
The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated increasing concern among Americans about the high cost of living, with one-year inflation expectations climbing from 3.5% in May to 3.7% in June. Further data showed that the Goods and Services Trade Balance deficit widened from $-54.6 billion in April to $-77.6 billion in May, below estimates of $-78 billion.
The de-anchoring of inflation expectations could be a reason for Fed officials to raise interest rates. Additionally, reports from the Middle East indicated that two ships were attacked by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as reported by Iran’s Fars agency, which fueled fears that energy prices could reaccelerate ahead of the US-Iran talks resumption.
Oil prices immediately edged higher, underpinning the Greenback due to their positive correlation. At the time of writing, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, is up over 2.70% to $70.48 per barrel. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, trades at 199.97, up 0.12%.
Another reason to consider is that US Treasury yields are rising. The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 5.5 basis points to 4.525%. Despite this, money markets are sceptical of a rate hike at the July 29 meeting, but for September, the odds are near 60%, according to Prime Market Terminal.
The World Gold Council reported that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added further Gold reserves for the 20th consecutive month, with stockpiles hitting 75.44 million fine troy ounces at the end of June, up from 74.96 million a month earlier.
Investors' eyes shift towards the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, followed by Thursday's jobless claims for the week ending July 4.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold remains bearish below $4,200, sellers eye $4,000Gold’s downtrend is set to extend further if XAU fails to break a resistance line at around $4,200-$4,225. Furthermore, the formation of a 'death-cross' on the daily chart indicates that sellers are gaining traction, which could lead to further declines.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish despite nearing the neutral 50 level. Over the past two trading sessions, it has indicated potential for additional downside.
Bullion’s path of least resistance is downwards. The first support is the $4,150 figure, followed by the psychological $4,100 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the $4,050 milestone, which lies ahead of the $4,000 figure and the year-to-date low at $3,941.
For a bullish turnaround, Gold must clearly break above $4,250 and then aim for $4,300. Resistance levels include the 50-day SMA at $4,391 and the 200-day SMA at $4,488, with $4,500 also in sight.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Zlato podporují přílivy do ETF a nákupy centrálních bank, ale růst brzdí očekávání dalšího zvýšení sazeb Fedu. HSBC přesto čeká, že střednědobá poptávka zůstane silná.
The Fed’s rate hike expectations limit gold’s rally potential. Capital inflows into ETFs and central bank purchases are supporting the gold price. The US dollar failed to capitalise on the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Reports of a tanker incident in the Strait of Hormuz are putting US-Iran negotiations at risk. Nevertheless, Brent crude rose only slightly, while the resumption of the S&P 500 rally and the associated improvement in global risk appetite are undermining the greenback’s position.
The futures market is pricing in a 3-in-4 chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026. This is allowing speculators to build up net long positions in the US dollar to their highest levels since 2015, leaving the US currency’s positions vulnerable. No sooner had Kevin Warsh adopted less hawkish rhetoric in Sintra than the markets had anticipated, and the employment figures disappointed, than the EURUSD soared sharply.
Lower chances of a Fed rate hike have allowed gold to find its footing. However, the Sword of Damocles (a potential federal funds rate hike due to persistent inflation) continues to hang over the precious metal. As the risks of an energy shock have receded, the inflationary nature of massive investments in artificial intelligence and weather-related supply chain disruptions remains a reality.
Fears that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy are unlikely to allow gold to return to its record highs in 2026. However, HSBC remains optimistic, expecting that medium-term demand for gold as a means of diversifying investment portfolios, capital inflows into ETFs and increased purchases of bullion by central banks will allow the precious metal to rise.
Indeed, according to the World Gold Council, central banks increased their reserves by 41 tonnes in May, stepping up their bullion purchases. Poland and China were the most active. Since the start of the year, Poland has bought 64 tonnes, Uzbekistan 33 tonnes, China 25 tonnes and Kazakhstan 20 tonnes.
HSBC believes that, in the short term, gold will come under pressure due to the strong US dollar and high yields on US Treasury bonds. In reality, its fate depends on the futures market’s reassessment of the trajectory of the federal funds rate. In this regard, clues from the minutes of the June FOMC meeting are certain to influence gold.
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Stříbro (XAG/USD) klesá o 1,35 % k téměř 61 USD, protože vyšší ceny ropy a obavy z inflace tlačí na neúročená aktiva. Trh čeká na středeční zápis z jednání FOMC.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1.35% to near $61.00 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The white metal extends its correction as oil prices see some buying interest, following headlines that Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost one-fifth of global energy supply.
Iran’s attack on commercial ships has renewed fears of energy supply disruption, whose impact on global inflation has already been witnessed by market participants in the past few months amid the war between the United States (US)-Israel and Iran.
The Silver price underperformed during the Middle East war, as the increase in inflationary pressures due to rising energy prices prompted fears of interest rate hikes by global central banks.
Higher interest rates bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Going forward, the major trigger for the Silver price will be the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting on Wednesday. Investors will pay close attention to FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
In the June policy meeting, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and signaled that the central bank will refrain from delivering forward-looking remarks on policy rates at the current policy juncture.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades lower at around $61.50, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $63.35. The downside tone is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 41, which suggests persistent but not extreme selling pressure as rebounds continue to be capped by the nearby EMA barrier.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at $63.35, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery phase. Looking down, the psychological level of $60.00 will be the key support zone; below that, the Silver price could revisit the seven-month low of $55.63.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
British Pound gains as easing Fed hike bets weigh on US DollarGBP/USD continues its winning streak for the ninth consecutive day, trading around 1.3390 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) faces headwinds as market participants scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes this month and in September. This shift in sentiment followed a cooling employment report that revealed fewer jobs added across April, May, and June than Wall Street had anticipated.
Furthermore, a recent drop in crude oil prices, driven by an OPEC+ production boost and a US-Iran peace deal, has alleviated broader inflationary pressures, softening the urgency for an aggressive Fed policy outlook. Read more...
Pound Sterling rallies into its own coronationGBP/USD has quietly put together eight consecutive higher daily closes, a grind from near 1.3150 that has delivered the pair directly onto its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the 50-day EMA just beneath it and the 1.3400 handle immediately overhead. Monday added another modest gain: Cable based near 1.3350 through the London morning, then climbed all afternoon to stall just shy of 1.3400.
The interesting part is what did not stop it. A hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) governor was on the wires mid-afternoon, US services data came in warm enough to keep the hike debate alive, and the pair rallied through all of it, which suggests Monday was less about fresh good news for the Pound and more about a Dollar that has run out of new arguments. Read more...
