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Gold attempts breakout after punishing decline since late August
Dollar's historically stretched rally shows signs of losing momentum
Treasury futures attempt bottom following extreme oversold conditions
Gold bulls eye $4,225–$4,235 as first major upside target
Gold is attempting to break out after a punishing bearish period since late August, just as two of the key markets that contributed to its weakness are showing signs of potentially reversing.

US 10-year Treasury note futures look to be establishing a bottom, having hit extreme oversold conditions earlier this month, while the US Dollar Index has broken its short-term uptrend after becoming unusually stretched to the upside.

The question now is: can gold make the breakout stick?

Gold's relationship with the dollar and Treasury futures
As the correlation matrix below demonstrates, the US dollar has maintained a strong inverse relationship with gold, particularly over longer timeframes, with the 120-session correlation sitting at -0.86, while the relationship over the past month remains firm at -0.80.

Source: TradingView

While less consistent than the relationship with the US dollar, 10-year Treasury note futures have also demonstrated a positive correlation with gold over the past week and fortnight, strengthening dramatically to +0.89 over the past month. Futures are used as the preferred measure given they're directly tradable, unlike Treasury yields.

US dollar rally showing signs of exhaustion
Given the strength and persistence of the inverse relationship with the dollar, the chart below makes for interesting viewing, not only for those trading FX, but also precious metals.

Source: TradingView

After becoming historically stretched to the upside, with RSI (14) reaching 76.8, placing it in the highest 1.5% of observations since 2013, and the ATR (50) stretch exceeding four, ranking in the highest 5% of the dataset, there are signs the big dollar is starting to roll over.

RSI (14) has moved back below overbought territory and is setting lower highs, while the uptrend in place since early September has cracked. That doesn't mean the break will stick, but if it does, it points to a potential change in the dollar's trend, at least over the short to medium term.

Treasury futures showing signs of a bottom
It's not just the dollar that looks like it may be approaching a turning point.

US 10-year Treasury note futures are also showing signs of trying to carve out a bottom following a punishing selloff that saw the price fall below the lows set in 2023.

Source: TradingView

RSI (14) fell to 19.7 in late September, ranking among the lowest 0.5% of observations since 2016, while the ATR (50) stretch reached -5.08, placing it among the most extreme 2% of readings.

Noticeable downside wicks suggest buyers have been stepping in at lower levels, coinciding with a significant increase in trading volumes. While this raises the possibility of a turning point over the short to medium term, it's far too early to declare a definitive bottom.

Gold breakout gathers momentum

Source: TradingView

The four-hourly chart highlights the punishing bearish trend gold has endured since late August, falling more than $600 per ounce from its high just shy of $4,700.

However, after breaking to fresh multi-month lows earlier this week, the price rebounded sharply from support around $4,070. A period of grinding price action followed before today's breakout above downtrend resistance during Asian trade, with gold subsequently clearing $4,184.43, the October 7 high.

That level now becomes the immediate downside focal point. A pullback and bounce could provide an opportunity to initiate longs with a tight stop beneath for protection, initially targeting former support between $4,225 and $4,235. Beyond that, $4,300, $4,333.58 and $4,400 are the levels to watch.

Alternatively, a reversal back beneath $4,184.43 could open the door to shorts, initially targeting the broken August downtrend, followed by $4,116.30, a level that has acted as both support and resistance previously this year.

Like the price action, the oscillators are becoming more positive for the bulls. RSI (14) has moved rapidly above 50, while MACD has staged a bullish crossover and flipped positive, suggesting upside momentum is building and improving the prospects of the breakout sticking.

At 16:05 GMT, spot gold is trading at $4,107.44, down $3.90 or -0.09%. It opened at $4,112.73, reached $4,143.43 and bottomed at $4,103.45.

The Fed Still Has Another Hike in the Market The September Fed minutes did not give gold traders much room to buy. Officials agreed on the quarter-point increase, but not all for the same reason. Some were focused on energy and other price shocks. Others were worried inflation was spreading through demand.

Either way, officials still think inflation is too high. They aren’t ready to let long-term yields carry the tightening.

Governor Christopher Waller said more hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation down, though not necessarily back to back.

FedWatch puts the odds of a hold at the October 28 meeting at 80.6%, with a 19.4% chance of another quarter-point increase. December is a different trade. The market puts 86.3% odds on at least one increase by the December 9 meeting.

December is the date gold has to carry.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecastsDaily US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield The 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.30% Thursday after reaching 5.354% Wednesday, its highest level since 2002. The 30-year was near 5.65% after trading just under a 24-year high the day before.

The 10-year auction Wednesday drew strong central-bank demand, but it still cleared at the highest yield since November 2000. Buyers showed up. They demanded a lot of yield to do it.

Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday. That is the next test for a market that has been questioning who will own long-dated U.S. debt as deficits grow and oil climbs.

Those same deficit worries are part of why gold has a floor under it. With yields over 5%, nobody’s in a hurry to chase it.

Hormuz Risk Is Supporting Gold, Not Lifting It The Strait of Hormuz is still a risk for the metal. Tanker operators are dealing with more threats and intimidation after Iran warned it could block routes it has not authorized.

That keeps a geopolitical bid under gold. It also helps explain why the market did not collapse after Wednesday’s selloff.

It hasn’t turned the trend, though. Traders are looking at Treasury yields, the dollar and December before they look at the tankers.

Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot gold is trading lower Thursday after failing to extend the early rally. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the main top at $4,399.67 will change the main trend to up. A move through the main bottom at $4,066.54 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The minor trend is down. Wednesday’s high at $4,184.38 is the new minor top. A trade through this level will turn the minor trend up and show that buyers are doing more than reacting to the low.

The first resistance is the long-term 61.8% level at $4,230.51. Above it, resistance comes in at $4,315.81, followed by the 50-day moving average at $4,331.62.

A break through $4,066.54 would expose the main bottoms at $3,996.06, $3,959.80 and $3,942.10. The 61.8% retracement level at $3,886.46 is the deeper downside target.

What to Watch The 30-year Treasury auction is the next live test for gold. The 10-year sale found buyers Wednesday, and the yield still stayed high. The long end and the dollar haven’t backed off, and Thursday’s early buying didn’t survive that.

Spot gold topped at $4,143.43 early Thursday and slipped back toward $4,103.45 by midday in New York. The bias is to the downside while the main and minor trends are down, gold remains under $4,230.51 and the market trades below the 50-day moving average. Buyers need to take out $4,184.38 first. Sellers need $4,066.54 to resume the downtrend.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is trading sharply lower Thursday after failing to hold the long-term 50% level at $60.835. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart.

The move through last Friday’s low at $59.69 signals a resumption of the downtrend. A trade through the main top at $67.55 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is down. A trade through the minor top at $62.09 will turn the minor trend up.

The first resistance is $60.835, followed by $61.04 and the minor top at $62.09. The 50-day moving average at $64.21 remains well overhead.

The break below $59.69 puts the swing bottoms at $56.56 and $54.78 in play. The long-term value area extends from $60.835 down to the 61.8% retracement level at $46.48.

What to Watch The 30-year auction is the next test for silver. The Fed has left a December hike in the price, the dollar is close to Monday’s high and the 10-year remains near a 24-year high. Sellers have control going into the sale.

Spot silver reached $60.61 early Thursday, then broke below $59.69 on the way to $58.50. The bias is to the downside while the main trend and minor trend are down, price remains below the long-term midpoint and the market trades under the 50-day moving average. The next swing bottom is $56.56.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Gold came under increased pressure from stronger dollar on Wednesday and cracked key $4120/$4100 support zone (Fibo 76.4% of $3942/$4697 rally / round-figure) which contained several attacks in past two weeks.

Recent action with temporary base but limited upticks capped by falling 10DMA and remaining below bear-trendline off $4697 peak, signals scenario of consolidation preceding fresh push lower.

Firm break of $4120/00 triggers is needed to confirm signal and open way towards psychological $4000 level and 2026 low at $3942.

Caution on bounce and repeated close above $4120 that would signal false break lower, but bears are expected to firmly hold grip while holding below falling trendline ($4190).

Only lift and close above $4230 (recent range top / broken Fibo 61.8%) would sideline bears and generate initial signal of bottom.

Res: 4144; 4190; 4230; 4266
Sup: 4066; 4021; 4000; 3960

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

TL;DR: Deutsche Bank sees Silver’s physical deficit narrowing toward a possible 2027 surplus as solar demand intensity falls and vault inventories rebuild, but with Silver trading around 60.80, the next move still hinges on the near-term technical fight between 58.68 support and 62.30 resistance—and on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.

Why This Matters Silver was trading around 60.80 in early Wednesday trade, well below the 71.16 late-August high and dramatically off levels above 120 seen earlier this year. The medium-term physical backdrop is also becoming less supportive, which raises a useful distinction for traders: a narrowing deficit is a slow-moving structural story that can cap how far a future rally extends, but it says little about which way Silver moves in the next session. That’s decided by the technical levels in play right now, and by how markets react to this week’s Fed signals.

Physical Tightness Is Easing, Deutsche Says Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Ghali argues that the market deficit is narrowing as inventories rebuild and demand weakens in several important areas, raising the possibility that the physical market could move into surplus in 2027.

The Deutsche report was published on October 2, with Ghali discussing the findings in an interview with BNN Bloomberg. London commercial vault holdings had risen to more than 914 million ounces by the end of August, according to the Deutsche analysis. More than 300 million ounces were considered freely available, around 70% above October 2025 levels and the highest since November 2024. CME and Shanghai inventories have also increased. Ghali attributes the rebuilding to a combination of recycling, metal returning from private vaults and weaker demand.

Solar Demand Is Doing Much of the Work The more important shift appears to be on the demand side. Deutsche estimates that global silver use in solar has fallen by more than 20%, including roughly one-third in China, while the amount of silver used per solar cell has declined around 17%.

That reduction in silver intensity has changed the economics of the sector. Silver’s share of solar-module costs had risen above 30% earlier this year but has since fallen back to around 14%. Indian imports are also running roughly 25% below year-ago levels, although August data indicated some recovery.

For Ghali, the result is that peak physical scarcity is now “clearly in the rear-view mirror.” Deutsche sees the current deficit shrinking and believes a physical surplus is possible next year. More available metal should also reduce the probability of the extreme squeezes that contributed to silver’s earlier volatility.

That conclusion still needs qualification. Neither the Deutsche material nor the media coverage provides a quantified 2027 surplus estimate, while China’s persistent price premium remains difficult to reconcile with an uncomplicated normalization story. The possibility that investment funds release additional metal in a prolonged Fed hiking cycle is also conditional rather than assured.

A Narrower Deficit Limits Upside, But It Is Not a Collapse Call The medium-term implication is less about outright bearishness than about a smaller scarcity premium. Deutsche expects silver to average around $70 by Q2 2027, still materially above current spot levels. The bank is therefore not arguing that the metal must fall substantially from here. Rather, the physical market appears better supplied than during the most acute phase of last year’s squeeze, potentially limiting the scope for another scarcity-driven surge.

That distinction matters. The physical balance is a slow-moving driver. It can influence how far a move ultimately extends, but it does not decide whether silver rises or falls in the next session.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Silver 62.30 Keeps Risks Tilted to the Downside The technical bias remains on the downside as long as 62.30 resistance holds. Silver’s decline from 71.16 still fits a three-wave corrective structure, with the first leg falling to 62.30, a rebound to 67.54, and the latest leg extending to 59.66 last week. That keeps the broader sequence of lower highs intact and leaves the burden on buyers to reclaim former support.

The first hurdle is the falling 4H 55 EMA around 61.76, but the more important level is 62.30, which has turned from support into resistance. As long as silver remains below there, another test of 59.66 remains the favored scenario. A decisive break above 62.30 would be the first meaningful sign that the decline from 71.16 may have completed, while a daily close above the 55 EMA near 63.92 would provide stronger medium-term confirmation.

58.68 Is the Key Downside Test A break below 59.66 would expose 58.68, the 100% projection of the 71.16 to 62.30 decline measured from 67.54. That is the next important test of whether the current correction is merely extending or turning into a deeper bearish move.

A firm break of 58.68 would strengthen the downside case and shift focus to 53.21, the 161.8% projection target, which sits below the 54.78 July low. Until 62.30 is reclaimed, the technical structure therefore continues to favor downside risk over a sustained recovery.

FOMC Minutes Matter More for the Next Session The next move is therefore more likely to be decided by US rates and Fed expectations than by the slower-moving physical balance.

The FOMC minutes are due at 2:00pm ET on Wednesday, while Fed commentary and US yields remain important as markets continue to price a December hike. With yields still near multi-decade highs, another rise in rates would keep pressure on silver, while a softer rates reaction could give the metal room to challenge 62.30.

The medium-term physical story is becoming less supportive. But in the near term, the technical decision remains much simpler: 62.30 on the upside and 58.68 on the downside.

Key Takeaways Deutsche Bank sees Silver’s physical deficit narrowing toward a possible 2027 surplus, driven mainly by a roughly 20% drop in solar demand and rebuilding vault inventories above 914 million ounces. Deutsche still expects Silver to average around $70 by Q2 2027—this is a smaller-scarcity-premium call, not a bearish collapse thesis. The near-term technical bias stays bearish while 62.30 resistance holds, with 59.66 the favored next test. A break below 58.68 would open the door to 53.21, below the July low at 54.78; a break above 62.30 (confirmed by a close above the 63.92 EMA) would be the first sign the decline from 71.16 has completed. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and US yield reaction are likely to matter more for Silver’s next move than the slower-moving physical deficit story.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

The first thing that stands out on Gold’s daily chart is a fresh local low at 4133.

That move allowed sellers to test the important support zone we discussed yesterday:

“(…) Not far below current prices, the bulls have another potential ally: the bullish gap from early August at 4098-4135. This is now the nearest important support zone, and it is additionally reinforced by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement mentioned above.

That gives this area a realistic chance of slowing the bears down during the coming week.(…)”

And so far, that’s exactly what happened.

The support zone encouraged buyers to step back in, pushing Gold back above the psychological 4200 barrier.

That’s the good news.

The harder part begins now.

Gold is approaching an important resistance combination built around the upper boundary of the black declining channel and the red short-term downtrend line that started in late August.

So, the real question isn’t whether Gold can bounce.

It already did.

The question is whether buyers are strong enough to turn that bounce into something bigger.

Until those resistance lines are broken, we remain in observation mode and wait for price to give us a clearer signal.

What would damage the bullish case? A daily close below 4100 and the loss of the key 4098-4135 bullish gap.

Daily Takeaway

We will watch 4098-4135 support and the resistance lines above the current price.
Hold above support → bulls remain alive → attack on channel resistance stays in play.
Break above the black channel + red downtrend line → first stronger confirmation that buyers are regaining control.

Daily close below 4100 → bullish recovery scenario weakens significantly.

Bounce confirmed. Reversal? Not yet.

Final Thought: today’s Lab has one very clear theme: a reaction is not the same thing as confirmation.

Dollar and Gold are only part of today’s story. Silver, Platinum, Palladium, and Copper are sitting around their own key technical decision zones – and some of them may be very close to confirming their next larger move.

Anna

Gold’s September retreat leaves XAU/USD roughly 21% below Crédit Agricole’s $5,000 December target as US Dollar assets compete for demand. Gold ended Friday below $4,200 even after weak US jobs data, leaving Crédit Agricole's bullish year-end forecast dependent on a substantial recovery.

The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) closed near $4,136 an ounce, down 1.13% on Friday, following September's 6.64% decline.

See full gold price in US dollars history here.

Crédit Agricole's 30 September projections put Gold at $5,000 in December 2026 and $5,500 in December 2027.

The first target requires approximately 21% upside from Friday's close.

The bank acknowledges the setback:

"Despite its recent underperformance, gold remains the pre-eminent safe-haven asset and currency debasement hedge."

Weak payrolls have not secured a recovery Friday's US employment report showed just 29,000 additional jobs in September and annual wage growth slowing to 3.0%.

That gives the Federal Reserve less reason to raise rates, potentially easing competition from interest-bearing assets.

Th price of Gold nevertheless finished the session lower.

Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which pays no income, a hurdle we examined in our earlier coverage of Crédit Agricole's $5,000 forecast.

Image: Chart for the gold price over the last three months Central-bank demand has limits in a crisis Crédit Agricole's demand analysis distinguishes official buying from private enthusiasm:

"Private investors (speculators and otherwise) not rushing to buy gold while central bank gold reserves have increased"

It links the longer-term price gains to supply that cannot readily expand:

"Growing central bank gold demand and inelastic gold supply resulted in exponential XAU price moves in recent years"

But its charts also track reserve declines in Turkey and India during the conflict, under the heading:

"Demand for USD in the wake of the Iran war forced central banks to sell gold reserves"

We believe reserve diversification supports the longer-term forecast, but cannot guarantee protection from immediate selling when US Dollars are needed.

With the $5,000 target due in December, the timing of that recovery is now the demanding part of Crédit Agricole's call.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Gold has recovered towards $4,200, but UBS’s December forecast of $4,600 still requires a gain of almost 10% from current levels. Gold’s sharp September retreat has left a much steeper climb to UBS’s $4,600 year-end forecast, even as bullion recovers some of Monday’s losses.

The Gold price (XAU/USD) edged up 0.20% to around $4,195 an ounce on Wednesday morning, following Tuesday’s 1.49% rebound.

Monday’s 3.20% decline had taken the closing price to roughly $4,125, and bullion remained nearly 6% lower for September through Tuesday.

Rising yields and a stronger Dollar drove the selloff, increasing the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no interest.

Wednesday brought some relief as Treasury yields eased and investors scaled back expectations for an October Federal Reserve hike.

UBS’s forecasts, dated 24 September, put gold at $4,600 in December 2026, $5,000 in March 2027, $5,200 in June and $5,400 in September.

That implies gains of approximately 9.7% by year-end and 28.7% by September 2027 from today’s price.

Those projections predate Monday’s slide, rather than representing a fresh response to it.

Image: Gold price chart vs USD shows recovery over last 2 days UBS’s earlier argument gives more weight to reserve diversification and investment demand than to the next interest-rate decision alone.

In its earlier September assessment, the bank said: “We view gold as a strategic portfolio hedge and diversifier, rather than as a tactical expression of the next Fed decision.”

UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo also wrote on 17 September: “We believe the long-term investment case for gold remains positive,” pointing to central-bank purchases as structural support.

The immediate test is whether softer rate expectations persist through the next US inflation and employment releases.

Stronger figures could lift yields again and test whether central-bank and investment demand can offset renewed pressure on bullion.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Gold’s 4.01% slump ranked 88th-largest since 1968
US 10-year real yields hit highest since 2008
Four-hourly gold indicators now show extreme oversold conditions
$4,115 support in focus
Precious metals washout ranks among the largest on record
It was a brutal start to the week for gold and the broader precious metals complex, with massive losses seen that ranked right up there among the largest in history.

Gold slumped more than 4%, silver more than 5%, while platinum and palladium fell nearly 3.5% and 5% respectively. For gold, it was the 88th-largest daily decline in a dataset going back to 1968, with the moves in the other metals not far behind.

Source: LSEG

US real yields surge to levels not seen since 2008
As discussed in a separate analysis note released in early Asia on Monday, the current macro environment is extremely hostile for metals that offer no yield, have holding costs if held in physical form, and are predominantly priced in US dollars.

That point is reinforced by what’s happening in US real yields. While there’s currently no especially strong short-term correlation between real yields and gold, stepping back from the day-to-day relationship gives a pretty stark picture.

Source: LSEG

US 10-year real yields, which represent the yield investors can receive over and above the market’s expected average inflation rate over the coming decade, have surged to 2.85%. That’s the highest level since November 2008 and the 22nd-highest daily close in data going back to 2003. The speed of the move has also been extreme, with real yields rising 51 basis points over the past 20 sessions after already starting from historically elevated levels.

Macro remains hostile, but gold is stretched to extremes
Even allowing for the fact that signals from TIPS can be muddied somewhat by the legacy effects of the Fed’s previous quantitative easing programs, it’s difficult to look at that kind of risk-free real return and make anything other than a bearish fundamental case for precious metals, and arguably broader risk assets.

For gold specifically, the question is obvious. When investors can receive nearly 3% in real terms from the US government, how does what has long been perceived to be a safe-haven that offers no yield and is predominantly priced in dollars compete?

When you evaluate the answer, it’s not hard to see why gold is struggling in this environment.

Six prior episodes offer a clue on what may come next
Gold is getting hammered, and arguably for valid, solid fundamental reasons. But macro is one thing, and being extremely oversold is another.

While there’s no evidence of a looming release valve to alleviate the pressure on the precious metals complex, history suggests the prospect of a savage counter-trend rally is not out of the realms of possibility.

Gold on the four-hourly chart has now got an extreme RSI (14) reading, while the ATR 50 stretch indicator is also extreme. The price was also trading beneath the lower Bollinger Band into the latest close.

Looking visually at the chart, I couldn’t help but notice that when we’ve seen similar conditions in the past, we’ve often seen some pretty big bounces.

So rather than just eyeballing it, I decided to go through the data and back-test what actually happened following previous periods when gold had reached similarly oversold conditions.

Source: TradingView

For the back-test, I kept the criteria simple and fixed. I looked for previous four-hourly periods where RSI (14) was below 30, the ATR 50 stretch indicator was below -4, and gold was trading beneath the lower Bollinger Band.

Using those conditions, there were six previous independent episodes in the available history. Of those, gold was higher 24 hours later in four of the six episodes, with the same also seen after 48 hours. By 72 hours and 120 hours, however, it was higher in five of the six.

The obvious exception was March this year, when the liquidation simply kept going and gold continued to unwind. While each large-scale selloff has its own characteristics, that episode was unusual in and of itself, coming after gold had experienced arguably one of the more extreme speculative rallies seen in modern times, taking it to a record high of $5,500 an ounce before the air was let out of the move.

So while that provides a cautionary tale that historic tendencies do not always play out, when you look more broadly, the scope for a near-term bounce against the prevailing trend may be in play.

$4,115 becomes the immediate line in the sand

Source: TradingView

Such was the ferocity of Monday’s breakdown that not only the first but also the second of the two downside targets discussed yesterday were hit, leaving the price dangling just above support at $4,115 an ounce.

That now becomes the immediate focal point for anyone trading gold. Should the prevailing trend extend further, $4,070 an ounce is the next downside level of note, coinciding with an area that acted as both resistance and support in late July and early August this year. Beneath that, a more pronounced support zone kicks in below $4,000, with $3,996, the swing low set in late July, marking the top of the range down to $3,943, the low hit earlier this year.

However, should we see a countertrend bounce form from $4,115, there is scope for the move to push back towards $4,165, the swing high set in late July this year, with $4,220 the next level of note.

A rebound back to that level would likely require some form of major macro news that erodes at least some of the pressure that has been hitting precious metals through higher yields and a strengthening dollar.

TL;DR: Gold has held its 4,230.70 support through a sharp Treasury yield surge to multi-decade highs, but the real test isn’t whether it can absorb a short-lived spike—it’s whether that support survives a sustained regime with the 10-year yield staying above 5%.

Gold Has Survived the Yield Shock Gold has already survived something that should have hurt much more. Treasury yields have climbed to multi-decade highs, Fed tightening expectations have accelerated, and the Dollar remains firm—yet gold is still holding above 4,230, a key near-term Fibonacci support. The harder test may only be beginning: not whether yields spike, but whether they stay this high.

At around 4,275, gold remains well above the 3,942.43 June low, despite the increasingly hostile rates backdrop. More importantly, this week’s sharp Treasury selloff failed to force a break of 4,230.70, the 61.8% retracement of the rise from 3,942.43 to the 4,697.07 peak. Gold has therefore absorbed both the gradual rise in yields over recent months and the latest abrupt repricing without losing the support that defines its broader corrective structure.

That’s genuine resilience. But it’s not the same thing as renewed strength.

Resilient, but Increasingly Vulnerable The fundamental pressure on gold hasn’t stabilized. Markets are pricing a substantially greater probability of further Fed tightening, the US 10-year yield has pushed above 5%, and the Dollar remains broadly firm. Those forces continue to raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

The charts reflect that pressure. Gold is trading below both the 4H 55 EMA at 4,326.16 and the daily 55 EMA at 4,337.45, leaving immediate price action capped beneath moving averages on two timeframes simultaneously.

Momentum is also soft rather than exhausted. The 4H RSI at 40.88 and daily RSI at 43.87 are both below 50 but still have substantial room to fall before reaching oversold territory. MACD remains negative on both timeframes, with the deterioration on the daily chart particularly pronounced. In other words, gold’s price structure has held up better than its momentum structure.

That combination preserves the resilient-but-vulnerable framing: bears haven’t broken the level that matters, but bulls haven’t regained control either.

The Harder Test Is Yields Staying High The market question has now changed.

Earlier, the issue was whether gold could withstand rising Treasury yields. It largely has. Even this week’s rapid push in the 10-year and 30-year to multi-decade highs wasn’t enough to break the key support zone.

But a short-lived yield shock and a sustained high-yield regime are different things.

If the 10-year remains above or around 5% while Fed expectations continue shifting toward additional tightening, gold faces a more persistent headwind. A temporary spike can be absorbed. Weeks of elevated yields, a firm Dollar, and expectations of further rate increases would continuously pressure the relative attraction of holding gold.

That’s the test the market hasn’t completed yet.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold: 4,230 Is the Line That Matters Technically, the decline from 4,697.07 remains corrective rather than conclusively bearish. Price action has been overlapping and choppy rather than developing into a clean directional collapse, while repeated attempts to push below the low-4,200s have failed.

The key floor remains 4,230.70, with the recent low at 4,234.68 effectively retesting that area.

The importance of this level is asymmetric. A rebound above nearby resistance would show improving momentum, but a decisive break below 4,230.70 would undermine the central resilience argument itself. It would mean the support that survived both the gradual yield climb and the latest rates shock had finally failed. Such a break would reopen the broader 3,942.43 low as the next major downside reference.

Bulls Have Several Hurdles to Clear On the upside, gold first needs to reclaim the 4,326–4,337 area defined by the 4H and daily 55 EMAs. That would ease immediate downside pressure but wouldn’t by itself signal the correction from 4,697.07 is finished.

A more meaningful recovery requires a break above the 4,410 area, followed by the broader 4,410–4,520 resistance zone. A sustained move through that cluster would materially strengthen the case that the corrective phase is ending and put 4,697.07 back into focus.

Until then, rebounds remain vulnerable to selling into resistance. That creates a relatively clean structure:

Above 4,410–4,520, the correction begins to lose control, reopening 4,697.07. Below 4,230.70, the resilience thesis weakens sharply, reopening 3,942.43.

Gold Has Held—Now It Must Prove It Can Keep Holding Gold’s relative stability through the Treasury breakout is noteworthy. The metal hasn’t ignored higher yields—the decline from 4,697.07 makes that clear—but neither has it capitulated despite an increasingly difficult macro backdrop.

That makes gold resilient, but still vulnerable.

The next meaningful signal won’t come from another intraday move around 4,275. It will come from whether 4,230.70 survives a sustained period of Treasury yields above 5%, and whether gold can reclaim both 55 EMAs before rates find another leg higher.

Upcoming US payrolls and CPI could determine whether the rates pressure intensifies or finally eases. If neither changes the Fed narrative, gold may have to prove its support can withstand something harder than a yield shock: a high-yield regime that refuses to go away.

Key Takeaways Gold held 4,230.70 support through a sharp Treasury selloff that pushed the 10-year yield above 5% for the first time in multi-decade highs. Gold’s price structure has held up better than its momentum structure: it’s below both 55 EMAs (4,326.16 4H, 4,337.45 daily) with RSI soft on both timeframes. The real test has shifted from whether gold can absorb a yield spike to whether it can withstand a sustained regime of yields staying above 5%. A break below 4,230.70 would undermine the resilience thesis and reopen the 3,942.43 June low; a break above the 4,410-4,520 zone would instead reopen 4,697.07. Upcoming US payrolls and CPI are the next catalysts that could determine whether rate pressure on gold intensifies or eases.

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Daily US Dollar Index (DXY) The Dollar Index cleared 100.561 Tuesday, reached 100.667, and gave it back after the Iran headline knocked crude lower. Silver bounced on that reversal. Wednesday morning the DXY opened at 100.560, pushed through to 100.862, and is holding near 100.826. The level that failed Tuesday is acting as support.

The move is not coming from a fresh oil shock. Crude is down for a sixth session. The dollar is moving on the rate trade underneath it. The Fed raised last week. Warsh left the door open. Musalem, Goolsbee, and Collins have all reinforced the inflation case this week. Tuesday’s dollar reversal looked like it might give silver breathing room. Wednesday took that away before European desks finished their first cup of coffee.

The next resistance on the DXY is the 101.327 to 101.640 range with the main high at 101.800 above. Six sessions of cheaper crude and the dollar is making new recovery highs. Silver buyers expected falling oil to knock the dollar off its run. It has not touched it.

The Two-Year Yield Is the Cleaner Signal The 10-year gets the attention after reaching 5.041% last week. The two-year is telling the more direct story for silver Wednesday.

Silver Price Forecast

Every new Silver analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Silver forecastsDaily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is lower early Wednesday. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $68.33 will change the main trend to up. A move through $62.31 will reaffirm the downtrend.

Silver reached $67.55 Tuesday and turned lower. The move stopped below the $67.79 retracement level and below the $68.33 main top. Sellers showed up before the market could change the trend.

The current break is testing the $65.45 to $65.32 area. A sustained move under that zone could send silver into the 50-day moving average at $63.45. The $62.98 to $61.04 support zone sits below the moving average along with the $62.31 main bottom.

What to Watch The Dollar Index is the first screen. It took back 100.561 after failing there Tuesday. Silver stays under pressure as long as that level holds. The two-year pushing toward 4.788% after last week’s hike is the rate market pricing a more restrictive path. The 10-year above 4.920% keeps the same pressure from the long end.

The UNGA headlines can still move crude. A real step toward Hormuz reopening keeps energy prices lower. A reversal in the diplomacy restores the premium. The oil story is the session-to-session swing. The dollar and yields are running the trade this week and neither one has cracked.

Silver is trading below the $65.45 to $65.32 area with the 50-day below at $63.45. The rally to $67.55 failed before it could threaten the main top. SLV is losing money while GLD takes it in. The swing chart is down and the dollar, the two-year, and the 10-year are all confirming the bearish lean.

Reclaiming $66.75 and then $67.79 weakens that case. A break through the 50-day strengthens it. Until the dollar and yields give ground, sellers own the trade and buyers need to hold the average or $62.31 comes back into focus.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

The chairman of the Fed, Kevin Warsh has said that inflation is still too high, and he pointed to the U.S.-Iran war as a significant catalyst. The Fed’s hawkish posture places the Platinum Group Metals (PGM) complex under pressure as it increases the opportunity cost of holding them while the dollar strengthens. Metals in the PGM complex include platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and osmium. And platinum price is more likely to fall against the U.S. dollar when the Fed is hawkish.

WPIC Surplus Revision Masks a Dangerously Thin Inventory Buffer A look at platinum’s fundamental picture reveals an interesting demand & supply narrative. On September 9, 2026, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) did a big u-turn on its 2026 platinum supply forecast, changing its previous expectation of a 297,000-ounce deficit to a 265,000-ounce surplus. That reversal measures up to a total of 562,000 ounces. When you analyze this move at the surface level, it looks very bearish, as it represents a sudden shift from deficit to oversupply, which usually leaves sellers chasing buyers and crashing the price of a commodity in the process.

However, things are not that straightforward. The WPIC’s change of heart was as a result of diminishing platinum investments, not higher mining output. Let me explain: according to a WPIC report, there was a drop of 534,000 ounces in platinum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) holdings, as investors were massively selling their shares in the platinum ETF. There was a further reduction in exchange stocks by 65,000 ounces, which led to an overall decline of 599,000 ounces in measured platinum investment demand. These massive investment outflows, which force funds to sell physical platinum blocks held in their vaults and directly translate to a commodity supply shock, were what pushed the WPIC to change their stance on expected 2026 supply.

A 265,000-Ounce Surplus Barely Dents a Three-Year Deficit Now, if we pay attention to the bigger picture, we will see that this forecasted supply shock won’t make much of an impact afterall, as there is a large deficit in the market to absorb it. WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond said by the end of 2026, global platinum inventories will only be able to cover about 3.4 months of demand, even after the ETF supply outflows hit the market. This projection points to a serious global deficit of platinum right now that has been going on for three consecutive years. The measure shortfall in 2025 alone was 1.4 million ounces and a 265,000-ounce surplus will only fill about 8% of the stockpile depleted between 2022 and 2025.

Long story short, not much of a supply shock can be expected when the WPIC’s projected surplus hits the market. Which means that the current market deficit will still very much be in play, and will support the bull case for platinum.

South Africa’s Structural Decline Is Not Reversible on Any Short Timeline Another key factor that determines what happens to platinum’s price is whether the global mining output of the metal is able to meet demand or not. South Africa is home to about 91% of the world’s Platinum Group Metals (PGM) reserves, however, the country’s output has continuously declined over time. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, South Africa’s PGM output declined by an estimated 9% between 2024 and 2025. This decline is mostly as a result of old infrastructure, rising operational costs, and unreliable electricity supply.

To make matters worse, the country’s utility authority, Eskom, has increased mining tariffs by around 60% in the last 5 years, with an April 2026 tariff bump of 8.76%, according to NERSA filings. The problem these electricity costs bring is that once they are deducted from the current prices of platinum, the margins left are significantly smaller.

Mining CEOs Warn the Output Slide Has Years Left to Run According to a June 2026 projection by Sibanye-Stillwater’s executive team, the world’s mining output of platinum is expected to drop by as much as 15% by 2034. In addition to this, the CEO of Northam Platinum, Paul Dunne, sent a troubling outlook to the market and said the industry is already in a terminal decline, with a predicted 10% drop in national platinum output over five years. Also, even if any significant funds are committed to building mines in the Bushveld Complex, a geological formation in South Africa that holds over 70% of the world’s platinum resources, it would still take about 10 to 15 years for those mines to be completed and commercially producing platinum.

Bullish Flag Holds Above Key Support, but the Descending Channel Tests Conviction The daily XPT/USD price chart reveals a bullish flag that has been forming from as far back as January this year. Price recently tested the upper trendline of the flag near $1,920 and rejected it on Thursday, September 10, sending it back down to $1,737 five days later. Platinum is trading near $1,786 per troy ounce as at the time of writing, well above the 1,442 – 1,559 support zone. Price had tested that zone in June and bounced off it, reaching the $1,800 levels by August.

Fed hike largely priced, BOJ increase fully priced
Updated Fed dots will shape the policy outlook
BOJ guidance must validate the hawkish OIS repricing
Energy remains tightly linked with longer-dated Treasury yields
Intervention risk continues to distort USD/JPY’s rates relationship
Central banks dominate, energy may decide
All the headlines this week are going to be centred on the Fed and the BOJ. But unless there’s a shock rates call from either, the decisions themselves don’t screen as significant volatility generators.

Instead, it will come down to signalling. For the Fed, that will come via the updated dot plot and economic projections, rather than Kevin Warsh unless he decides to start providing guidance. For the BOJ, it will be the tone of the statement and Governor Ueda’s press conference, given there will be no updated economic projections at this meeting.

The key swing factor that could override all of that central bank discussion is energy. With a tight link between crude oil movements and US yields, and US yields still having a fairly strong relationship with the US dollar, how energy prices evolve could be equally important, if not more so, in determining how USD/JPY performs in the week ahead.

Warsh faces a credibility test
Of all the known event risk this week, nothing comes close to the Fed interest rate decision.

Kevin Warsh has made it clear in his time as chair that, along with not wanting to give markets the answers to the exam before it occurs, he’s also been a strong advocate for allowing markets to evaluate where the appropriate policy rate should sit. After the string of data we’ve seen recently, including Friday’s CPI report, market pricing for a 25 basis point hike to the funds rate has lifted to around 90%.

Source: TradingView

That creates a scenario where, if the Fed doesn’t hike and effectively ignores what markets are signalling about where the appropriate rate should sit, it risks doing serious damage to its credibility and triggering a disorderly reaction, potentially at the back end of the Treasury curve and in the dollar.

The first area of focus will therefore be whether Warsh can convince the FOMC to deliver the hike, or whether we see some splintering with key members voting against it. Any sign of dissent, particularly from influential members, risks sparking a dovish market reaction, whereas an FOMC that is fully on board with the hike would likely do the opposite.

Source: Federal Reserve

Beyond that, attention will fall on the updated Summary of Economic Projections, especially the dot plot. In June, nine of the 18 FOMC members who submitted forecasts signalled they saw the need for at least one hike this year, with six of those indicating more than one. That was substantially different to what had been conveyed three months earlier, when the committee was still projecting a gradual easing cycle with the funds rate eventually troughing around 3%.

Warsh’s press conference will also matter, particularly if we see dissents or a shock rate call. Assuming the Fed hikes, a large portion of the questioning will likely centre on the updated SEP while trying to tease out information on the policy outlook.

So the main questions will be how many hikes are signalled in the updated projections, whether we see any dissents, and what the Fed says about the inflation outlook.

Source: TradingView

Outside of Wednesday’s FOMC decision, the remainder of the US calendar is largely devoid of significant market-moving events. There will be some interest in the retail sales report following July’s surprise decline, although barring another major shock, it is likely to be swallowed up by the Fed later in the session.

BOJ must validate hawkish repricing
Turning to the BOJ on Friday, unless it delivers a stunning 50 basis point hike, all the mail is that rates are going higher. A 25 basis point increase is fully priced.

As such, the focus will be on whether the BOJ can sustain the hawkish shift in expectations that's taken place over the past month. OIS pricing has moved materially higher across the curve, with almost a second hike by year-end now priced and more than three hikes expected by the middle of next year.

Source: Bloomberg

There are no updated economic projections at this meeting, leaving the statement and Ueda’s press conference as the main vehicles for signalling. That means both will need to ooze hawkishness to validate what's priced in the curve. If they don’t, it may deter some newly inked yen bulls from following through with their conviction.

The vote split on the rates call will also be in focus. Multiple dissenters arguing for a 50 basis point move would come across as hawkish, while multiple members preferring to leave rates unchanged would be deemed dovish, even if the BOJ still delivers the expected hike.

Source: TradingView

Outside of the BOJ decision, the Japanese calendar is largely inconsequential for traders. Inflation data for August is released beforehand, but it has been superseded by the Tokyo figures released three weeks earlier and remains heavily influenced by government subsidies, meaning it is now basically overlooked by markets.

The more relevant inflation read arrives the following week, when the BOJ releases its own measure that strips out the impact of government subsidies and other distortions.

Crude, yields and the dollar
While central bank decisions will dominate the headlines, don’t dismiss the importance of energy in determining how USD/JPY fares this week.

The correlation matrix below shows a strong relationship between energy prices and US Treasury yields, particularly further out the curve. Over the past five sessions, WTI’s correlation with 10 and 30-year yields stands at +0.78 and +0.96 respectively, while diesel shows a similarly strong relationship.

Source: LSEG

Correlation doesn’t mean causation, and some of the relationships may be spurious. We don’t know. But for all the narratives around fiscal concerns, the evidence suggests movements at the back end of the curve have been heavily influenced by what’s been happening with energy.

That matters for the dollar because Treasury yields are also showing strong relationships with the DXY. Those links are strongest across the front end and belly, where energy is also showing meaningful relationships, even if the strongest evidence sits further out.

Source: LSEG

So what happens in energy prices could conceivably influence yields either side of the Fed decision, which in turn may also influence the dollar. For USD/JPY, however, that relationship is competing with a far more idiosyncratic factor that may help explain the price action we saw last week: ongoing intervention risk.

Hidden forces still supporting the yen
We saw US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent make highly unusual statements, such as declaring that he was now “the house” and effectively daring traders to weaken the yen. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama then confirmed again on Friday that Japan remained in close contact with the United States over currency markets.

Then we saw highly unusual price action following the US inflation report, emblematic of how USD/JPY has disconnected somewhat from shifts in US rates, as we’ve seen previously. Core inflation came in hotter than expected, front-end yields pushed higher and Fed pricing increased, yet USD/JPY tried to rally before falling sharply.

We don’t know whether intervention is still taking place, but the price action suggests there is a hidden force making the pair behave differently to what it has in the past. It’s not simply that the BOJ has become hawkish. That has been known for some time and doesn’t explain what we’re seeing.

USD/JPY downside bias remains intact

Source: TradingView

That strange price action following the US inflation report saw USD/JPY’s attempted rally stall above 154.50, a level the pair has now failed above twice since late last week, making it the immediate focal point overhead.

Underneath, the bottom of the current range sits at 152.90, where the pair bottomed early last week. Beneath that, 152.10 is a swing low from January, before 151 comes into view. That is a far more important level, having acted as both support and resistance on multiple occasions over several years. If we were to see a substantial downside unwind, other levels of note include 149.40 and 146.

Above 154.50, 155.50 repeatedly acted as support over periods this year and may now flip to offering resistance. Beyond that, 156.68 and 158 are other levels of note before the 200-day moving average.

More broadly, the string of lower highs and lower lows, the medium and long-term moving averages flattening out or beginning to roll over, and the price sitting beneath all three continue to favour the downside. RSI (14) sits around 29, while MACD is pushing further into negative territory after already staging a bearish crossover.

As such, the message right now favours selling into strength and downside breaks. A bearish bias is preferred heading into this risk-laden week.

The gold price’s recovery alongside rising inflation expectations has SEB watching for a shift away from the US Dollar and towards hard assets. The gold price in US Dollars climbed back above $4,400 on Thursday, extending Wednesday’s recovery as SEB pointed to renewed interest in protecting wealth against a loss of purchasing power in the Dollar.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD was up 0.70% at $4,424.68, following a 0.97% gain in the previous session.

Analysts at SEB see gold’s strength as part of a wider change in investor behaviour.

“However, it is time to start tracking a broader Dollar debasement narrative. This was a theme in early 2026 and looking at variables such as gold, Bitcoin and implied inflation, they are all rising and would arguably be indicative of a switch to real assets away from the Dollar.”

The bank links this risk to a more interventionist US Treasury, arguing that efforts to restrain borrowing costs through bond buybacks can lift inflation expectations and weaken confidence in the currency.

The US ten-year breakeven inflation rate, a market measure of expected inflation, stood at 2.37% on Wednesday, up from 2.35% late last week.

Higher yields do not tell the whole story Analysts at SEB nevertheless caution against treating rising US Treasury yields as proof that investors are abandoning US government debt.

“Fiscal sustainability concerns as a driver of rates and USD look overblown.”

Its analysis finds that bond pricing does not yet support that conclusion, even as intervention risks strengthen the argument for holding assets outside the Dollar.

That complements UBS’s preference for buying gold on weakness, which rests partly on demand for diversification despite higher real yields.

Image: Gold price vs USD year-to-date 2026 chart At Exchange Rates UK Research we think gold can retain that support even with interest rates elevated, provided concerns about the Dollar’s purchasing power continue to attract buyers.

The immediate test is tomorrow's US consumer-price report.

A strong reading could lift rate-hike expectations and inflation-adjusted yields, increasing the cost of holding gold and testing whether demand for protection against debasement can outweigh that pressure.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem describe a broad-based Gold bull market in 2026, driven by ETFs, futures and options positioning. They highlight strong physical ETF inflows, near-record futures exposure by money managers and a structurally bullish options skew. The report stresses that multiple independent demand channels are reinforcing each other, supporting a constructive stance on Gold over the medium term.

Bullish signals across all channels"Gold has entered a new phase of its 2026 bull run, one defined less by speculative momentum and more by broad-based, structural conviction across every category of market participant. What began as a geopolitical shock, evolved over the following months into something far more durable: a synchronised build-up of physical, futures, and options exposure that now spans retail investors, professional money managers, and derivatives traders alike."

"In August, gold ETFs registered a substantial 201 tonnes of net inflows, marking the third-largest monthly addition on record in tonnage terms after now famous world events: February 2009 and the stimulus package announced by the newly inaugurated Obama administration, and March 2020 with the start of the lockdown for Covid globally. This month's inflow surpassed the strong inflows recorded in March 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and in September 2012 after the Federal Reserve's announcement of QE3."

"In notional exposure terms (contracts x price x contract size), money managers' net positioning reached the second-largest long exposure on record, behind only January 2026, when gold broke through $5,400/oz to an all-time high. This time, with prices roughly $1,000/oz lower, the scale of the dollar exposure is even more striking: it is no longer simply a price story."

"Overall, investors appear to be pricing near-term uncertainty via puts while steadily building call exposure further out the curve, consistent with a constructive medium-term outlook for gold."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The USD/JPY and DXY charts are approaching defining support levels, creating a conflict between short-term weakness, long-term bullish continuation risks, and the risk of a broader structural bearish shift.

Several factors are contributing to volatility risks across both charts:

Rising U.S. Treasury yields: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently reached a new 2026 high near 4.8%, widening the interest-rate differential between the United States and Japan 
Bank of Japan rate-hike expectations: Markets are pricing in the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the BOJ meeting scheduled for September 17–18. This expectation is providing short-term support for the yen.
Crude oil and geopolitical risks: Crude oil prices have broken above a 7-month resistance level, increasing concerns about supply disruptions and inflation. This could support the dollar through safe-haven demand, although persistently higher oil prices could also raise concerns about global growth.
As of September 7, the fundamental and technical picture remains tilted towards geopolitical risks. Short-term dollar weakness is visible, but the broader risk narrative continues to support the possibility of renewed dollar strength if inflation, yields, and geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

DXY Price Outlook: Monthly Time Frame — Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Despite the DXY breaking below its 2026 uptrend, signaling short-term weakness, the longer-term structure remains tilted to the upside.

The key downside levels I am watching align with the Fibonacci retracement levels of the 2026 uptrend: 98.50, 98, 97 and 95.50. The 95.50 area is the defining barrier between a structural breakdown of the 18-year uptrend and a potential continuation of the longer-term bullish structure.

On the upside, reclaiming the 2026 uptrend near 100.30, followed by a move above 101 and 101.70, would restore the dollar’s strength against major markets. Such a move could lift the DXY toward new 2026 highs and add further pressure on Japanese officials facing persistent yen weakness.

This situation could become more critical if the interest-rate differential between the United States and Japan continues to widen.

Key DXY Scenarios
Bullish scenario: A recovery above 100.30, followed by a breakout above 101 and 101.70, would signal renewed dollar strength and support a move toward new yearly highs.

Bearish scenario: A sustained breakdown below 98.50 and 98 would increase the risk of a deeper correction toward 97 and 95.50. A clear break below 95.50 would confirm a more significant structural shift and challenge the long-term bullish trend.

USD/JPY Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame — Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Technically, USD/JPY is breaking below a 3-month support level, signaling short-term yen strength while simultaneously approaching an uptrend support zone that has been in place since 2023.

Key Patterns and Scenarios in Focus
The breakdown below the April 2025–July 2026 channel points to short-term weakness and aligns with the Fibonacci retracement levels of that advance.

Price action is currently testing a breakdown below 154.80, the 38.2% retracement level. A sustained move below this level could target 152, corresponding to the 50% retracement, followed by 149 near the 61.8% retracement level.

The 149 area could become an important zone for a potential long-term rebound, aligning with the golden ratio, the broader 2023–2026 uptrend and increasingly oversold momentum conditions.

Bearish scenario: A clear breakdown below 149 would confirm broader structural weakness and increase the risk of a deeper correction in USD/JPY.

Bullish scenario: Holding above 149 would preserve the broader bullish structure. On the upside, reclaiming the 2026 uptrend boundaries near 158.40, 161 and 164 would restore USD/JPY strength and expose the upper channel boundary near 170.

Short-term weakness, the potential for long-term dollar strength and persistent geopolitical risks are shaping the outlook for USD/JPY and the DXY.

The next major catalysts include the U.S. CPI report on Friday, the BOJ meeting on September 17–18 and the FOMC meeting on September 16. The reaction in Treasury yields and the direction of crude oil prices will remain critical in determining whether the current weakness develops into a deeper structural decline or becomes another correction within a broader bullish trend.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight that central banks, led by China and Poland, continued net Gold purchases in July, supporting structural demand despite a slower pace than last year. They add that Gold prices rose over 2% after weaker US employment data and comments from Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller suggesting openness to holding rates steady if inflation behaves.

Official demand and Fed rhetoric support"Central banks continued to add to gold reserves in July, reporting net purchases of 23 tonnes, according to World Gold Council data. Emerging market central banks remained the main buyers, led by China and Poland. China's central bank extended its buying streak to 21 consecutive months, adding 20 tonnes."

"Although central bank buying has slowed compared to a year ago, official sector demand continues to provide support for the gold market. Ongoing reserve diversification efforts among emerging economies should help sustain structural demand, even if purchases moderate from recent highs."

"Gold prices rose more than 2% on Thursday following a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report on Wednesday. Comments from US Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller, suggesting he is open to keeping rates on hold at the next FOMC meeting (assuming no surprises on the inflation front), provided an additional boost."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Why Brent’s break above $97 is failing to lift Dollar, and why Japan, not oil, is setting today’s currency direction What’s happening: USD/JPY broke decisively through 157.99 to around 156, bringing the 155 area back into range, as Yen’s rally gathers fresh momentum from speculation that Japan’s roughly $2 trillion GPIF could raise its domestic bond allocation, on top of an already-hawkish BoJ repricing. At the same time, Brent climbed to an intraday high around $97.62, its strongest level in six weeks, as the US-Iran conflict shows signs of extending well beyond 2026.

Why it matters: Brent above $97 and a conflict that could extend into 2027 would normally form a potent Dollar-supportive combination through inflation and rates. Instead, Dollar is broadly weaker because Japan has taken control of the FX narrative. Oil is still setting global inflation risk, but today, Japan is setting currency direction.

Yen Takes Over as GPIF Speculation Adds to BoJ Repricing Yen extended its powerful rally on Thursday, sending USD/JPY decisively through 157.99 to around 156 and putting the 155 area back within reach. Latest leg appears to have received fresh fuel from speculation surrounding Japan’s roughly $2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund. GPIF held an unusual management committee meeting on August 21, its first August meeting since 2019, and revisited discussion around its basic portfolio only five months after a March assessment concluded that a review was unnecessary.

Market interest centers on whether GPIF could eventually raise its strategic allocation to domestic assets, particularly government bonds. Domestic bonds currently carry a 25% target allocation, alongside 25% each for domestic equities, foreign bonds and foreign equities. The timing is significant because Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed roughly one percentage point since March and briefly reached 3.015% this week, highest since 1996. Higher domestic yields are already changing relative attractiveness of Japanese assets, with Japanese investors reducing overseas bond exposure this year. A larger GPIF domestic allocation would reinforce that repatriation theme and potentially relieve some upward pressure on JGB yields.

That speculation is adding to a much broader Yen-positive repricing already underway. BoJ officials have become increasingly explicit about further tightening, with markets now focused not only on a possible September hike but on a faster cycle over coming year. Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura added another layer of caution Thursday, saying he was “neither satisfied nor reassured” by recent Yen developments and that authorities remained on “a state of heightened alert.” He declined to confirm whether officials had conducted a rate check. Traders nevertheless continue to attribute Yen strength primarily to BoJ tightening expectations rather than fresh intervention.

The 155 level is critical. USD/JPY is approaching the same territory reached after July’s record intervention campaign, which cost Japan roughly $96.5bn and included rare US participation. The 155.22 area marks July’s post-intervention low, while 155.01 provides nearby technical support. This time, however, pair is approaching those levels organically rather than through any confirmed official Yen buying.

Why the 155 Level Matters Japan’s 10-year JGB yield: briefly reached 3.015% this week, highest since 1996. July’s record intervention: cost roughly $96.5bn, included rare US participation. 155.22: July’s post-intervention low. 155.01: nearby technical support. Mimura: “neither satisfied nor reassured,” authorities on “a state of heightened alert.” July’s Intervention-Driven Move vs. Today’s Organic Approach to 155 July’s Intervention Today How USD/JPY reached this territory Record intervention, cost roughly $96.5bn, included rare US participation Approaching organically, no confirmed official Yen buying Key levels 155.22 (post-intervention low), 155.01 (support) Same levels now back within reach Attributed driver Direct official Yen buying BoJ tightening expectations and GPIF speculation Dollar Weakens Even as Oil Sends a Normally Bullish Signal Yen’s surge has become dominant force in FX, with Dollar lower against all major counterparts despite a backdrop that would normally be considerably more supportive. In Dollar index specifically, Yen’s sizeable weighting means its appreciation directly pulls index lower. More broadly, modest easing in Treasury yields has allowed Dollar weakness to spread across EUR, GBP and CHF as traders focus on Japanese policy repricing rather than extending this week’s US rates trade.

That creates today’s most counterintuitive cross-asset signal. Brent has broken above $97 to fresh six-week highs as US-Iran conflict intensifies, yet Dollar is falling. Earlier this week, higher oil transmitted relatively cleanly through inflation fears into higher Treasury yields and firmer expectations for Fed tightening. That channel has not disappeared, but it is being overshadowed in FX by Yen’s much larger independent move and the pause in US yields.

Wednesday’s softer ADP report, with private payrolls rising only 38K, contributed to that pause in further hawkish repricing, but it is not the principal driver of Thursday’s Dollar move. Initial jobless claims subsequently matched expectations at 206K, offering little additional direction. Markets still attach substantial probability to September Fed hike, leaving Friday’s NFP as decisive test. For now, more revealing question is not simply why Dollar is weaker, but why Brent above $97 has failed to make Dollar stronger. Answer lies in Japan: Yen and BoJ repricing have become larger currency-market forces today.

Oil Story Shifts From Escalation to Duration Brent meanwhile climbed to an intraday high around $97.62, extending this week’s rally and reaching its strongest level in six weeks. But narrative is beginning to shift. Earlier phases of renewed fighting were dominated by immediate questions over each US strike, Iranian retaliation and potential disruption to Strait of Hormuz. Markets are now considering a more difficult possibility: conflict and impaired regional energy flows could persist into 2027. Recent market commentary has explicitly moved toward that longer time horizon, with Capital Economics expecting restoration of Middle East energy flows to be delayed until early next year and forecasting Brent around $100 by end-2026.

That matters more for inflation than another isolated military exchange. A conflict measured in additional months rather than days would prolong pressure on shipping, inventories and refined-product markets, increasing chances that energy inflation becomes persistent enough to influence central-bank decisions. Iranian retaliation has also widened geographically, while US officials continue to signal that military pressure could intensify again even as Washington tries to limit escalation ahead of November elections. Reuters reported that administration officials see possibility of more intense attacks after midterms, underscoring absence of a clear near-term exit from a war now in its seventh month.

The closing contradiction is therefore striking. Brent above $97 and rising concern that US-Iran conflict could extend into 2027 would normally form a potent Dollar-supportive combination through inflation and rates. Instead, Dollar is broadly weaker because Japan has taken control of FX narrative. Oil is still setting global inflation risk, but today, Japan is setting currency direction.

Related Coverage Yen & Precious Metals Deep Dives Read why Silver’s rebound from 63.27 still depends on holding 62.54-62.92 to keep its five-wave recovery from 54.77 alive ahead of Friday’s NFP: Silver’s Correction Has Reached Its Line in the Sand — What Happens Next?. See why Friday’s NFP creates an asymmetric setup for USD/JPY, with weak data opening a clearer path toward 155 than strong data does above 160: USD/JPY Tumbles Under the Shadow of Intervention, Faces Asymmetric NFP Test. US Data Deep Dive Read why jobless claims matching expectations at 206K still leaves Friday’s NFP as the clearer labor-market signal: US Initial Jobless Claims Rise from 204K to 206K. Global Inflation Deep Dives See why Eurozone PPI’s swing to +1.6% m/m was driven largely by a 5.6% jump in energy prices, with annual producer inflation accelerating to 5.8%: Eurozone PPI Surges 1.6% M/M as Energy Drives Renewed Producer Inflation (full Eurostat release). Read why Swiss CPI’s jump to 0.8% was driven mostly by energy and imported prices, with core inflation holding at 0.4%: Swiss CPI Jumps to 0.8%, but Energy Drives Much of Inflation Surprise. Global PMI Round-Up See why UK services hitting a four-month high still came with employment falling for a 23rd straight month: UK PMI Services Hits Four-Month High as Cost Pressures Reaccelerate. Read why Eurozone’s composite PMI holding at an eight-month high alongside stalled disinflation is strengthening the case for ECB tightening: Eurozone PMI Composite Holds Firm as Sticky Prices Strengthen ECB Tightening Case. See why Japan’s record composite selling-price inflation is adding to the case for another BoJ hike even as growth accelerates: Japan PMI Growth Accelerates as Record Selling Prices Strengthen BoJ Hike Case. Read why Australian services confidence hit a six-month high even as fuel and wage costs kept input inflation elevated: Australia PMI Services Holds Firm at 53.2 as Confidence Rises but Costs Stay High. See why China’s services and composite PMI gains reflect stronger domestic demand and sustained hiring: China RatingDog PMIs Strengthen as Services and Employment Gain Momentum. Frequently Asked Questions Q: Why is Dollar falling even though oil just broke above $97? A: Because Yen’s much larger, independent move is overwhelming the usual oil-to-Dollar transmission channel. Higher oil normally supports Dollar through inflation fears feeding into higher Treasury yields and firmer Fed tightening expectations, and that channel hasn’t disappeared. But Yen’s sizeable weighting in the Dollar index, combined with a pause in US yields, means Japanese policy repricing is currently the bigger force in FX. The real question today isn’t why Dollar is weaker, it’s why Brent above $97 hasn’t made it stronger, and the answer is Japan.

Q: What is GPIF and why does speculation about it matter for Yen? A: GPIF is Japan’s roughly $2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund. It held an unusual management committee meeting on August 21, its first August meeting since 2019, revisiting its basic portfolio just five months after concluding in March that no review was needed. Markets are watching whether GPIF could raise its 25% target allocation to domestic bonds. A larger domestic allocation would reinforce the repatriation trend already underway as Japanese investors reduce overseas bond exposure, adding further support to Yen and potentially easing some upward pressure on JGB yields.

Q: How is this approach to 155 different from July’s intervention? A: July’s move to the 155 area came from a record, roughly $96.5bn intervention that included rare US participation. This time, USD/JPY is approaching the same 155.22 and 155.01 levels organically, with no confirmed official Yen buying. Traders are attributing the move to BoJ tightening expectations and GPIF speculation rather than direct intervention, even though currency diplomat Mimura says authorities remain on “a state of heightened alert.”

Key Takeaways USD/JPY broke through 157.99 to around 156: Bringing the 155 area back into range for the first time since July’s intervention. GPIF speculation is adding fresh fuel to Yen’s rally: Markets are watching whether Japan’s roughly $2 trillion pension fund raises its 25% domestic bond allocation after an unusual August 21 committee meeting. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield briefly hit 3.015% this week: The highest since 1996, up roughly one percentage point since March. Currency diplomat Mimura kept intervention rhetoric alive: Saying he’s “neither satisfied nor reassured,” though traders still attribute Yen strength to BoJ tightening expectations, not intervention. Brent climbed to a six-week high around $97.62: As the oil narrative shifts from immediate escalation questions to concern the conflict could extend into 2027. Reuters reported officials see possible intensified attacks after the US midterms: Underscoring no clear near-term exit from a conflict now in its seventh month. Dollar is broadly weaker despite a combination that would normally support it: Brent above $97 and extended conflict risk usually mean higher inflation and rates support for Dollar, but Japan has taken control of the FX narrative instead. Unlike July, today’s approach to 155 is organic: No confirmed official Yen buying, unlike July’s roughly $96.5bn intervention with rare US participation. What to Watch Next Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report is the decisive near-term test for Dollar, following a softer ADP print and in-line jobless claims. Watch whether USD/JPY breaks below 155, further signals on GPIF’s portfolio review, and whether Brent extends toward $100 as Capital Economics and others push their Middle East normalization timelines further into 2027.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

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AUD/USD

Sell AUD/USD. Higher odds of both RBA and Fed hikes push the market toward tighter USD policy and less room for AUD to rally; strong Aussie data is already “priced,” while the article flags elevated inflation and renewed oil/energy pressure that can keep both central banks hawkish. Technicals also point to a bearish reversal (rising wedge convergence, PPO bearish crossover, RSI rolling over). Target 0.700 support.

Key Risk: A sharp risk-off move that weakens the USD (or a surprise dovish Fed/RBA shift) that drives AUD/USD back above 0.7207.

Brent-linked AUD

Sell AUD exposure via AUD/JPY (or AUD futures). The news ties the hawkish rate repricing to higher oil after US-Iran activity; that supports global growth but also keeps inflation sticky, which tends to keep JPY relatively supported versus high-beta AUD when rates are uncertain. With AUD/USD set up to break lower, AUD/JPY should follow on the same rate-and-risk repricing.

Key Risk: Oil spikes further and triggers a broad commodity/risk rally that lifts AUD/JPY despite the wedge/oscillator bearish setup.

The Australian dollar held firm today, September 3rd, as investors adjusted their RBA and Federal Reserve expectations for the year. The AUD/USD pair was trading at 0.7165, a few points below the August high of 0.7207. 

Traders are bracing for interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) happening as soon as this month.

Polymarket gives the odds of RBA’s rate hike happening in September rose to 67%. These odds jumped after the US and Iran resumed their kinetic activity, which led to higher oil prices. 

Australia has also published strong macro numbers this week. An S&P Global report showed that the services PMI came in at 53.2 in August, higher than the expected 52.9. A PMI reading of 50 and above is usually a sign that a sector is growing. The composite PMI came in at 52.7, also higher than the expected 52.50.

Another report released on Wednesday showed that the Australian economy expanded by 2.1% in the second quarter, higher than the expected 1.8%. It grew by 0.4% in Q2 after growing by 0.3% in Q1 on a QoQ basis. 

This growth happened even as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) became the most hawkish central banks this year. It has already delivered three rate hikes this year, with officials leaving the door open for more hikes.

A key concern is that Australia’s inflation has remained at an elevated level in the past few months. This trend will likely continue now that the US and Iran have restarted their kinetic activity, leading to higher energy prices. Brent, the global benchmark, rose to $95.68, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $91.

The same situation is happening in the US, where odds that the Fed will hike rates this month have jumped to 55% on Polymarket. These odds soared after Kevin Warsh delivered a highly hawkish statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

In it, he hinted that the bank was concerned about the state of inflation, which has remained above the 2% target in the past five years.

Focus now shifts to the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report that will provide color on the labor market. Economists expect the data to show that the economy created over 80k jobs in August this year.

AUDUSD chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD pair may be on the verge of a bearish reversal in the coming days. For one, it has formed a rising wedge pattern whose two lines are about to converge. 

Also, the two lines of the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have made a bearish crossover, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing downwards.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the AUD/USD pair falls, potentially to the key support of 0.700.

Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Wednesday, trading around $64.30 at the time of writing, up 0.32% on the day after recovering from earlier losses. The precious metal finds some support from weaker-than-expected United States (US) employment data, although elevated US Treasury yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy continue to limit its upside.

The latest labor-market figures provide some relief for Silver. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change report shows that the US private sector added 38K jobs in August, below market expectations of 47K and the previous increase of 46K. The softer reading adds to signs of cooling labor demand and could complicate the case for additional monetary tightening.

However, expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain broadly hawkish. Markets see a roughly 64% chance that the central bank will raise interest rates at its September 15-16 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, compared with 36% a week earlier.

Higher rate expectations have pushed US Treasury yields sharply higher, creating a significant headwind for Silver as a non-yielding asset. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield reached 4.81% on Wednesday, its highest level since 2023, before easing modestly.

At the same time, rising tensions in the Middle East have driven Oil prices higher, adding another layer of uncertainty to the inflation outlook. Persistent energy-driven price pressures could encourage the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance for longer, potentially keeping Treasury yields elevated and limiting demand for precious metals.

The US Dollar (USD) also remains supported by the prospect of higher interest rates, although disappointing employment figures prevent the Greenback from gaining stronger momentum.

Against this backdrop, Silver's rebound remains caught between weakening US labor-market signals and persistent expectations of tighter Fed policy. Investors will now turn their attention to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide further clues on the strength of the US labor market and reshape expectations for the Fed's September decision.

XAG/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.36, retaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $66.81 and the 200-hour SMA at $67.80. This configuration suggests the recent bounce is a correction within a broader downswing, with the cluster of moving averages above price reinforcing the cap on recovery attempts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.75 sits just below the neutral line, hinting at easing downside pressure but not yet signaling a decisive shift in momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at $66.70, ahead of the horizontal barrier at $67.50, while the 100-hour SMA at $66.81 and the 200-hour SMA at $67.80 stack additional supply if bulls attempt a stronger rebound; a sustained move above these levels would be needed to alleviate the current bearish bias and expose the higher resistance at $71.12. On the downside, initial support is seen at $63.32, with further cushions at $62.19 and $60.87, where buyers would likely look to slow or halt any renewed decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold (XAU/USD) resumed its decline on Tuesday, following a flat performance on Monday, reaching fresh two-week lows at $4,375 so far, posting a nearly 7% decline from last week’s peak, near $4,700. Precious metals are struggling this week as hawkish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole summit on Friday provided a fresh boost to the USD.

Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the US Dollar has “recovered most of yesterday’s pullback” as policy expectations remain firmly skewed toward further tightening. They also highlight that “Fed funds futures price in 67% odds of a 25bps hike on September 16 and imply 60bps of tightening over the next twelve months,” with market “pricing [set to] remain elevated into the September meeting.”

In their view, however, “August CPI on September 11” will be the “decisive test” to see whether those rate expectations – and the Dollar’s recovery – can be sustained.

Technical Analysis: Next downside target is at $4,315

XAU/USD trades at $4,378, with momentum indicators in the daily chart entering bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing levels below the key 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped below zero, pointing to increasing downside pressure.

Immediate support is seen at the mid-August lows between $ 4,310 and $4,330. Further down, the August 6 low, near $4,225, would come into view. On the topside, previous support at the $4,450 area has now turned resistance and is likely to test rallies, ahead of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,530 and last week's highs, near $4,700.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The price of Gold’s 3% Warsh-driven selloff has put Crédit Agricole’s $5,000 year-end forecast to a tougher test, but the bank’s debasement thesis remains intact. The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) ended Friday around $4,457 after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech triggered the sharpest setback of the recent rally.

Gold fell 2.99% on Friday and is now almost $240 below August’s $4,696 high, although bullion still gained more than 10% over the month.

Warsh warned that the Fed still had “work to do” unless inflation moved convincingly towards 2%, sending September rate-hike expectations sharply higher and pushing the Dollar up. Gold subsequently suffered a heavy rate-driven selloff.

That move cuts directly across the near-term argument behind Crédit Agricole’s bullish call, but not necessarily the structural one.

The bank says gold has become “one of the key beneficiaries” of efforts by Washington to restrain long-dated Treasury yields, which worsened “the risk-reward trade-off for UST investors” and increased bullion’s appeal as a safe haven.

Crédit Agricole argues that these policy moves have “fanned US inflation fears and lowered US real yields”, strengthening gold’s role as a currency-debasement hedge.

It also sees geopolitics feeding the same trend, with the weaponisation of the Dollar through sanctions encouraging renewed reserve diversification.

“We remain long XAU/USD as a trade idea,” the bank says, adding that it continues to forecast gold at $5,000 by year-end with further gains in 2027.

Image: Gold price in US Dollars one-month chart The chart shows gold rallied from around $4,025 to nearly $4,700 before Friday’s collapse took it back towards its rising 20-day moving average.

We recently highlighted the return of ETF and futures buyers to gold, while BofA’s separate $5,000 forecast sits on a longer 2027 horizon.

Crédit Agricole’s call is more demanding.

From $4,457, a year-end move to $5,000 requires roughly 12% upside.

Warsh has made that path harder, but the bank’s forecast was always built on fiscal, Treasury and de-dollarisation risks as much as Fed easing.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

TD Securities’ Bart Melek notes that Gold has rallied sharply as recent U.S. Dollar weakness and concerns over Fed credibility and Treasury bond-market intervention drive fresh long positioning. Worries about America’s fiscal situation are reviving the USD debasement trade and may continue to support Gold, although a move toward TD Securities’ $5,350/oz target is still considered premature.

Fresh longs chase debasement trade"Traders added to gold exposure as the recent U.S. Dollar weakness, Fed Credibility and Treasury Bond Intervention concerns come into focus."

"Worries about America's fiscal situation are once again resurrecting the USD debasement narrative, which, in turn, is energizing gold bugs."

"Based on Treasury Dept statements, market participants believe the government bond market interference may get even more aggressive. At this stage, gold may continue to respond to the weaker USD."

"A move to our $5,350/oz target is a little premature for now."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates its advance on Friday and trades around $69.75 at the time of writing, up 2.41% on the day. The white metal reaches its highest level in two months and is on track for a weekly gain of more than 7%, mainly supported by persistent weakness in the US Dollar (USD).

The main catalyst behind Silver’s rally this week is the United States (US) Department of the Treasury’s surprise announcement of its debt buyback program. The Treasury plans to at least double its purchases of longer-dated government securities in an effort to contain borrowing costs. The decision initially triggered a sharp decline in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar, mechanically increasing the appeal of Dollar-denominated precious metals.

US Treasury yields have since recovered some of their losses, but the rebound has not been enough to halt Silver’s advance. Investors appear more concerned about the longer-term implications of US fiscal policy, including rising government debt, large budget deficits and the possibility that authorities may favor looser financial conditions at the expense of the US currency.

Commerzbank argues that the Treasury’s announcement suggests that US authorities may prefer a weaker Dollar rather than accepting persistently higher long-term interest rates. This perception adds a headwind for the Greenback and continues to support Silver.

The monetary policy outlook provides additional support. Recent US employment and inflation data have reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Lower interest rates tend to benefit Silver, which offers no yield, while potentially adding further pressure on the US Dollar.

Investors now turn their attention to the preliminary August S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs). The market consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to ease slightly to 53.8 from 53.9 in July, while the Services PMI is forecast to decline to 54 from 54.6. Weaker-than-expected figures could increase pressure on the US Dollar and provide further support to Silver.

However, inflation risks remain present. Rising Oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East could keep US inflation elevated and reignite speculation about a Fed rate rise, bolstering the USD. A sustained rebound in US Treasury yields could also become a headwind for precious metals following their strong recent gains.

XAG/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $69.83, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the upward-sloping trend-line support around $68.03 and comfortably above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $66.02 and the 200-period SMA at $65.56. The clustering of underlying levels at $67.75 and $66.60 reinforces a constructive structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70.05 hints at mildly overbought conditions that could slow the advance rather than immediately reverse it.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the psychological $70.00 handle, where a sustained break would open the way for further gains in the short term. On the downside, the first meaningful support emerges at the reclaimed trend-line zone near $68.03, followed by horizontal support at $67.75 and $66.60, with the 100-period SMA at $66.02 and the 200-period SMA at $65.56 providing deeper trend support if corrective pressure extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

On 19 August, the US Treasury announced that it would double the volume of long-term government bond buybacks. The measure led to a noticeable decline in yields at the longer end of the curve and forms part of the Treasury’s broader efforts to contain pressure on long-term borrowing costs. These efforts include market interventions and calls for the Federal Reserve to expand the limits of the FIMA repo facility.

Lower Treasury yields improve the relative appeal of precious metals, which do not generate interest income, providing direct support for silver. Industrial demand is another important factor. Chinese imports of silver-containing ores rose 62.5% year-on-year in June amid expanding production of solar panels and power-grid equipment.

Technical Analysis of Silver

Since 17 July, XAG/USD has been moving within a pronounced uptrend on the four-hour chart. In the upper portion of this advance, a pattern resembling a broadening triangle emerged in mid-August. Unlike a conventional triangle, its boundaries widened rather than converged, reflecting increasing volatility during the consolidation phase.

On 20 August, the price broke above the formation and continued to hold above the current market profile. The breakout candle was accompanied by a noticeable increase in vertical volume compared with the preceding consolidation bars, adding some confirmation to the move.

Following the breakout, silver moved above the profile’s upper boundary at $66.58. If the bullish momentum persists, the next major upside reference is the red resistance level at $69.74.

A return inside the profile would shift attention to the cluster of two important levels: the Point of Control (POC) at $65.165 and the lower profile boundary at $64.345. Their proximity makes this area particularly important for the short-term outlook. If sellers push the price through this cluster, the next potential support could be found around the green level at $62.700.

The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 66, 56 and 56. The oscillator is trading above the neutral zone, while both moving averages remain below its upper boundary and are only beginning to approach a potential breakout.

Key Takeaways The breakout above the broadening triangle on increased volume initially points towards further upside, but maintaining prices above the market profile will require additional confirmation.

The $66.58 level is therefore likely to remain important in the near term: holding above it would favour continuation towards $69.74, while a return below the profile could bring the 65.165–64.345 area back into focus.

The broader outlook will also remain sensitive to the direction of US Treasury yields. A continued decline in yields could provide further support for silver, while a renewed rise in long-term yields could limit the metal’s upside.

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