Market Signal Briefing

Memecoin forecasts are resurfacing amid market volatility, with prominent voices outlining bullish cycle targets for Shiba Inu and structural signals emerging for Dogecoin.

A widely shared projection for SHIB estimates a cycle top between $0.00003 and $0.00005 by late 2026, inviting traders to justify their own targets. The call comes while Shiba Inu trades at $0.00000614, down 1.46% in 24 hours, largely tracking Bitcoin’s weakness without a coin-specific catalyst. This decline reflects beta-driven pressure amid a soft crypto backdrop.

Technically, holding above the $0.0000060 support keeps the door open for a bounce toward $0.00000650, while a break lower exposes $0.00000550. Analysts describe sentiment as mixed, balancing short-term rebound setups against longer-term concerns tied to supply dynamics. Sustainable upside is likely to depend on tangible ecosystem growth, including increased adoption of Shibarium to counterbalance its vast token supply.

Meanwhile, Dogecoin has reached a structural milestone, according to Alphractal’s João Wedson. For the first time, the asset has accumulated more than 1,100 days in which the price traded above its current level. This metric, known as the Number of Days Spent at a Profit, measures how long prior market participants held positions at higher prices.

Elevated readings suggest prolonged underwater positioning and embedded market memory, a feature often associated with late-cycle resets rather than short-term volatility.

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DOGE’s press time price is $0.0966, down 0.72%, while Bitcoin’s decline is steeper. Meanwhile, the technical structure is still weak, and its price is below key moving averages, and RSI is near 40. Yet, the token retains visibility through regulated products such as 21Shares’ Dogecoin ETF, TDOG.

However, combined U.S. DOGE ETF holdings remain under $10 million with muted flows, leaving sentiment and macro conditions as the dominant drivers for now.

Journalist

Posted: February 25, 2026

Cryptocurrencies have gained significant popularity, particularly among Digital Asset Trading (DAT) companies. Reflecting this trend, more than 193 firms now hold Bitcoin [BTC] on their balance sheets. 

One example is Empery Digital Inc., which began aggressively accumulating and holding BTC in 2025 as major companies embraced crypto.

However, with BTC now struggling, the company has faced a massive internal revolt, especially from shareholders, who are worried about market uncertainty.

Shareholder revolt challenges Bitcoin strategy In a major setback for  Empery Digital Inc., a key shareholder staged a public revolt, challenging the company’s BTC‑focused strategy. 

Tice Brown demanded that the firm sell all its BTC holdings, return the proceeds to investors, and that both the CEO and Board of Directors resign. In his letter, Brown, who owns 9.8% of the company, accused management of enriching themselves at the expense of shareholders.

Brown decried that the firm’s leadership privately approached him, offering him a deal to buy back his shares at 100% of the firm’s mNAV.

However, he refused the proposal, arguing that such moves aimed to preserve management’s position rather than investors’ capital.

At the same time, the shareholder criticized the company’s buyback program, accusing it of exploiting shareholders. In response to the letter, the firm accused Mr. Brown of furthering self-interest and misrepresentation of facts.

The company argued that the attempted repurchase of his shares was in the company’s and its shareholders’ best interests.

Assessing Empery’s Bitcoin position? Undoubtedly, the shareholders’ call for a selloff of Bitcoin holdings is significant, as Empery holds a substantial BTC position.

Data from Bitcoin Treasuries showed that Empery Digital Inc. holds 4081 BTC, worth $265.7 million, making it the 23rd-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.

Source: Bitcoin Treasuries

With an average cost basis of $117k, Empery’s holdings are currently down 44%. Equally, the company has not made any purchases since September 2025.

With BTC in a strong downtrend, the company’s asset value dropped from $509 million in October to $265 million, a $244 million decline.

Likewise, the company’s stock value has plummeted 49% over the past six months. When BTC traded above $120k, EMPD traded above $15.

Source: Bitcoin Treasuries

Since then, the share price has plunged to a low of $3.2, indicating the direct correlation between BTC price and the company’s stock value.

Therefore, if Empery dumps off its holdings as requested by a major shareholder, it will weaken already strained BTC. Under such circumstances, BTC continues to decline, and EMPD will drop further, threatening shareholders’ positions.

Final Summary Empery Inc Shareholder called for the resignation firms CEO and board of directors. Amid Bitcoin’s prolonged downtrend, Empery stock has plunged 44%, with its holdings down $244 million. 

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

The market for XRP ETFs has already secured full approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with six products now managing more than $1 billion in combined assets. Yet one major player remains absent: BlackRock. 

According to Canary Capital Chief Executive Officer Steven McClurg, that may not last forever. He believes the world’s largest asset manager could file for a spot XRP ETF by late 2026 or early 2027, assuming current trends continue.

XRP ETF Assets Must Hit $3B Before BlackRock Moves As noted by market expert Sam Daodu in a Tuesday report, assets in XRP-linked ETFs climbed to a peak of $1.6 billion in January before experiencing approximately $500 million in outflows, bringing total assets back to around $1 billion. 

According to McClurg’s outlook, BlackRock is unlikely to move unless certain market signals become undeniable. One of the clearest indicators would be sustained growth in existing XRP ETF assets. 

While assets peaked at $1.6 billion in January 2026 and have since settled near $1 billion, a rise toward $3 billion or more would demonstrate robust and durable demand. 

Canary’s CEO asserts that BlackRock pays close attention to market capitalization and investor appetite. If current XRP ETFs were to triple in size, the commercial rationale for launching a competing product would become far more compelling.

Competitive dynamics could also accelerate the timeline. BlackRock is not typically the first to enter a new segment, but it rarely allows rivals to dominate uncontested. 

McClurg noted that it may not be long before BlackRock feels pressure to respond if another large firm files for a spot XRP ETF. A rival’s move could force BlackRock’s hand sooner than its current projected window.

Perhaps the most decisive factor would be demand from institutional clients. If state pension funds, university endowments or sovereign wealth funds begin allocating XRP within their approved asset classes, that shift would likely serve as a clear signal. 

Ripple Connection Notably, BlackRock’s relationship with Ripple’s broader ecosystem may already be closer than many assume. The firm’s tokenized treasury fund, BUIDL, utilizes Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin as collateral. 

That integration suggests a degree of familiarity and comfort with Ripple-linked infrastructure, even in the absence of an XRP ETF. Such ties could potentially shorten the distance between monitoring the market and formally entering it, should demand accelerate.

For now, BlackRock remains on the sidelines of the XRP ETF space. Whether it steps in by late 2026, in 2027, or further down the road will likely depend on one central factor: whether institutional demand grows strong enough to make staying out the greater risk.

The 1D chart shows XRP’s price trending downwards. Source: XRPUSDT on TradingView.com As of this writing, XRP was trading at $1.34, marking an 8% drop over the past week. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

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Ronaldo is a seasoned crypto enthusiast with over four years of experience in the field. He is passionate about exploring the vast and dynamic world of decentralized finance (DeFi) and its practical applications for achieving economic sovereignty. Ronaldo is constantly seeking to expand his knowledge and expertise in the DeFi space, as he believes it holds tremendous potential for transforming the traditional financial landscape.

TLDR: US agents seized over $61M in Tether linked to a large-scale crypto pig butchering romance scam. Scammers built fake romantic relationships to direct victims toward fraudulent crypto trading platforms. HSI agents traced stolen USDT through multiple wallets before recovering funds still held in them. Tether cooperated with federal authorities, assisting in the transfer of the seized USDT assets. US agents seize $61M USDT in a major federal operation targeting cryptocurrency romance fraud. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of North Carolina confirmed the recovery of over $61 million in Tether.

Homeland Security Investigations traced the funds to wallets connected to a large-scale pig butchering scheme. The case began after a fraud victim filed a report through the HSI Tip Line in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Romance Tactics Used to Lure Crypto Victims Scammers behind the operation first approached victims under the guise of romantic interest. They built trust over time before introducing the topic of cryptocurrency investment opportunities. Once victims felt secure in the relationship, the fraud began to take shape.

The criminals then claimed to have special techniques for generating high returns through crypto trading. They directed victims to fake platforms that closely resembled legitimate cryptocurrency exchanges. Those platforms were designed to look credible in both name and appearance.

Fabricated investment dashboards showed unusually high portfolio gains to keep victims engaged. The false returns were intended to convince victims to deposit more and more money. Nothing shown on those platforms reflected any real trading activity.

When victims attempted to withdraw funds, they were blocked at every turn. Scammers cited reasons such as unpaid “taxes” or “fees” as conditions for releasing money. Those demands were simply further attempts to drain victims of additional funds.

How HSI Tracked and Seized the USDT After receiving the tip, HSI agents and analysts in Raleigh launched a blockchain tracing operation. They followed the stolen funds as they moved through a series of cryptocurrency wallets.

The movement of funds was a deliberate effort to obscure the origin and ownership of the money.

Despite the layering tactics used, investigators successfully traced the path of the funds. Several wallets at the end of that chain still held large amounts of victim money. Those wallets became the target of federal seizure and forfeiture action.

HSI Charlotte Acting Special Agent in Charge Kyle D. Burns addressed the nature of the threat:

“HSI special agents work diligently to trace the illicit proceeds of crime across the globe to disrupt and dismantle the transnational criminal organizations that seek to defraud hardworking Americans.”

Tether played a cooperative role in the final stage of the recovery process. The company assisted federal authorities in transferring the seized USDT assets. The Department of Justice formally acknowledged Tether’s support in completing the operation.

U.S. Attorney Ellis Boyle reinforced the message behind the seizure:

“Our asset forfeiture team worked along with HSI to take the profit out of crime.”

The case proves that crypto transactions, while complex, leave traceable trails. Federal coordination with stablecoin issuers is becoming a sharper tool against large-scale fraud.

A governance dispute inside the Aave ecosystem intensified after two detailed reports offered contrasting interpretations of the protocol’s past funding and contributions ahead of a vote on a proposed $50 million package for Aave Labs. 

Aave Chan Initiative (ACI) founder Marc Zeller on Wednesday published what he called a transparency report reviewing Aave Labs’ historical funding and applied a return-on-investment framework to past DAO grants. Hours earlier, Aave Labs released its own contributions report outlining its role in building the protocol since 2017.

The dispute centers on the “Aave Will Win” framework, a proposal asking tokenholders to approve funding worth up to $42.5 million in stablecoins and 75,000 AAVE (AAVE) tokens. In return, Aave Labs would route 100% of revenue from Aave-branded products to the Aave DAO treasury under a DAO-funded operating model, according to the proposal and related forum posts.

The debate has broadened beyond the size of the funding request to include questions about accountability standards, revenue attribution and who maintains the protocol’s core infrastructure.

It follows the recent announcement that BGD Labs, a core technical contributor, will conclude its involvement with the DAO on April 1. 

Competing views on funding and valueZeller’s report said Aave Labs has received roughly $86 million in lifetime capitalization, including its 2017 initial coin offering (ICO) proceeds, venture funding and DAO payments. 

He argued that future DAO grants should be evaluated using measurable revenue impact and clearer disclosure standards. 

ACI, a service provider to the Aave DAO and not a neutral party in the debate, questioned whether governance votes should be unbundled to separate funding, revenue alignment and V4 ratification.

Zeller wrote that funding decisions should be tied to performance benchmarks and transparent reporting. 

Source: Marc ZellerAave Labs, in its contributions report, highlighted its role in designing and shipping Aave V1, V2 and V3, and highlighted features it says underpin the protocol’s current revenue model, including flash loans, the Safety Module and Efficiency Mode.

Aave Labs argued that counting governance proposals or forum posts does not reflect the full scope of research, development, security and infrastructure work required to maintain a protocol used by millions of users. 

Source: Stani KulechovWhat tokenholders are voting onUnder the “Aave Will Win” framework, Aave Labs would transition to a DAO-funded operating model while directing product-level revenue, including from aave.com and planned consumer-facing products, to the DAO.

The proposal also seeks ratification of Aave V4 as the protocol’s long-term technical foundation and outlines plans for a new foundation to steward the Aave brand.

Some community members have previously raised concerns about the size of the funding package and the inclusion of 75,000 AAVE tokens, which carry voting power.

On Feb. 13, critics called for clearer definitions of revenue and greater transparency around governance holdings.

Magazine: Hong Kong stablecoins in Q1, BitConnect kidnapping arrests: Asia Express

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy

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North Carolina DOJ Seizes $61 Million in USDT Tied to Pig Butchering Scam Prefer us on Google

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of North Carolina seized more than $61 million in Tether (USDT) linked to money laundering from crypto “pig butchering” investment scams.

Why it matters:

Victims of pig butchering scams lose funds to fraudulent platforms showing fake returns, then face demands for “taxes” or “fees” to withdraw. This is a cycle designed to repeatedly extract money. The $61 million seizure ranks among the largest single USDT confiscations tied to romance-based crypto fraud in U.S. history. The case signals direct DOJ and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) coordination with Tether to freeze and transfer illicit stablecoin holdings. The details:

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of North Carolina announced the seizure, with the DOJ and HSI leading the operation. Investigators traced the USDT to wallet addresses linked to money laundering tied to crypto investment fraud. Pig butchering scams involve criminals building fake romantic relationships online before steering victims toward fraudulent trading platforms. Tether assisted the DOJ and HSI in facilitating the transfer of the $61 million in seized assets. The big picture:

Pig butchering scams generated billions in global losses in recent years, with U.S. authorities accelerating seizures as stablecoins become the preferred settlement layer for organized fraud networks. The case adds to the DOJ’s growing track record of recovering crypto assets linked to transnational fraud. Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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The Ethereum Foundation is now staking part of its treasury stockpile of ETH.

The organization says it has staked an initial deposit of 2,106 ETH worth around $3.8 million.

Approximately 70,000 ETH will be staked in total, with all rewards directed back to the EF treasury.

“By participating directly in consensus through solo staking, the Ethereum Foundation generates native, ETH-denominated yield to help fund its stewardship of the ecosystem.

It does so using Ethereum’s own economic rails and thereby subjects itself to the friction, risks, and operational realities of staking while setting a standard both in transparency and in operational management of validators.”

The foundation says the move will help secure the Ethereum network while creating native ETH yield to fund core work like protocol R&D, ecosystem development and community grants.

The launch of staking has been fueled by Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin, who has sold more than $6 million in ETH in recent days.

In late January, Buterin withdrew 16,384 ETH worth approximately $44 million from his personal holdings to fund ecosystem development in a period of “mild austerity.”

Generated Image: Midjourney

TLDR: Coinbase Institutional’s GEX report identifies $60,000 as the thickest BTC support zone in current market structure. Negative gamma between $60K and $70K could accelerate Bitcoin’s downside beyond what discretionary buyers anticipate. Positive gamma from $85K to $90K points to a slow, choppy grind rather than a sharp breakout for Bitcoin. The report favors call spreads over outright calls above $82K, reducing theta bleed during uncertain market conditions. Gamma Exposure (GEX) is now part of Coinbase Institutional’s latest Bitcoin analysis report. The report combines options market data with key support and resistance levels. It identifies $60,000 and $82,000 as critical price zones for BTC.

The findings suggest that negative gamma could accelerate downside moves, while positive gamma above $85,000 may slow upside momentum. Traders are urged to adjust their strategies based on these dynamics.

Negative Gamma Raises Downside Risk Below $70K Coinbase Institutional’s report introduces GEX as a tool that turns the options market into a hidden liquidity layer. It helps traders decide between range trades and breakout strategies. The metric tracks how options dealers hedge their positions when Bitcoin’s price shifts.

Gamma measures how quickly an option’s price sensitivity changes as BTC moves. When dealers are short gamma, they tend to buy as prices rise and sell as prices fall. This behavior can turn small price moves into sharper, faster trends.

The report shows a pronounced negative gamma band concentrated between $60,000 and $70,000. That setup means any move toward $60,000 could accelerate beyond what typical buyers expect. Liquidation-style cascades become more likely in this zone.

Support near $60,000 remains the thickest demand cluster in the current price structure. However, the GEX data advises against buying the initial selloff. Traders are better positioned to enter only after a confirmed reclaim of that level.

Positive Gamma Between $85K and $90K Signals a Slow Grind Above $82,000, the gamma picture shifts toward stabilization. A breach and hold above $82,000 would suggest that supply at that level has been absorbed. From there, BTC would likely move toward the next liquidity bands higher up.

The $85,000 to $90,000 range carries meaningful positive gamma. In positive gamma zones, dealers sell into strength and buy into weakness. That pattern tends to reduce volatility and create a slow, choppy upward grind.

Because of this chop risk, the report favors call spreads over outright calls in an $82,000 breakout scenario. Call spreads retain convexity while cutting theta bleed during a grind. That trade structure fits an environment where the macro catalyst remains unclear.

For traders managing existing long portfolios, protective put spreads offer a cleaner hedge if $60,000 fails. Bear put spreads are preferred over outright short positions, given the elevated risk of sharp reversals.

The report concludes that the $82,000 level remains the key gate that must open before any sustained upside becomes probable.

Chainlink price is up nearly 4% today, rebounding alongside a stabilizing broader crypto market, but this move may carry more weight than it appears. While most traders are focused on short-term volatility, LINK is quietly defending a critical monthly demand zone between $4.00 and $4.70. This region, identified as institutional accumulation territory on higher timeframes, has now become the structural line between breakdown and breakout.

At the same time, multi-year compression appears complete, liquidity below structure has likely been swept, and a massive buy-side pool remains untouched near $30–$31. So the real question is no longer whether LINK bounced 4% today. The question is whether Chainlink price is positioning for a macro expansion cycle, one that could eventually target $53 if the structure confirms.

Let’s break down what the chart is really signaling.

The $4.00-$4.70 Monthly Demand Zone: Why It MattersThe LINK/USDT price chart clearly defines this zone as the key monthly order block.

$4.00 = Structural defense level$4.70 = Retail inducement / stop-hunt levelLINK price chart analysis suggests that liquidity below structure has already been engineered. The deviation near $4.70 likely acted as a retail trap, clearing weak hands before stabilization.

This aligns with classic Wyckoff accumulation principles and Smart Money liquidity engineering, where price sweeps below support before absorbing supply. For the bullish chainlink price prediction to remain valid, $4.00 must hold on monthly closes. A sustained monthly close below $2.00 would fully invalidate the macro bullish thesis.

Chainlink price has spent years compressing after its previous bull cycle peak. Multi-year range compression is rarely random. It often represents long-term supply absorption before expansion.

The structure now shows:

Compression completeInducement below structure finishedDemand zone defendedLiquidity building aboveWhen compression resolves upward, the expansion is typically proportional to the length of consolidation. This is where the $53 target begins to make structural sense.

The Liquidity Magnet at $30-$31Above current price sits a massive resting buy-side liquidity pool at $30–$31 equal highs. Markets are liquidity-driven. If chainlink price confirms higher highs and escapes the compression structure, the pathway unfolds in stages:

$13 → First breakout confirmation$30 → Major liquidity cluster$42 → Intermediate macro resistance$53+ → Full range expansion projectionThe $53 target represents roughly a 1,200% expansion from the current demand zone, based on measured range breakout models.

Is LINK the Most Undervalued Blue Chip Right Now?The narrative in your image states: LINK may be the most undervalued blue chip currently.

Why?

Because:

It sits at multi-year macro demandLiquidity sweep appears completeStructure is definedRisk is clearly measurableUpside is asymmetrically largeFew large-cap assets sit at this combination of structural compression ,clear invalidation, and visible liquidity targets. That’s what creates asymmetry.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

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The debate around Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is intensifying once again. While some investors view the recent pullback as a standard cycle correction, longtime critic Peter Schiff believes something far more structural is unfolding.

Bitcoin is currently trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 high of $126,000. After failing to regain sustained upside momentum, the asset has entered a period of consolidation under key resistance levels. Volatility tied to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical stress has further pressured risk assets across the board.

But Schiff’s warning goes beyond charts and technical levels.

The “Bubble Market” ArgumentSchiff describes Bitcoin as sentiment-driven and bubble-like, arguing that the multi-year rally was fueled by speculation rather than sustainable fundamentals. In his view, the recent downturn signals that “the air is coming out” of an overextended market.

He has suggested that Bitcoin could fall toward $50,000, or even $40,000, if downside momentum accelerates. Schiff also made headlines by claiming that a single Truth Social post from Donald Trump could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price, underscoring what he sees as the asset’s fragility and dependence on political sentiment.

Schiff has additionally criticized Trump’s pro-crypto stance, calling efforts to position the United States as a global crypto hub misguided and a misallocation of capital.

Gold’s Surge and Institutional RotationWhile Bitcoin struggles, Schiff points to gold’s strong performance as evidence of a broader monetary shift. He argues that rising gold prices reflect de-dollarization trends and renewed central bank accumulation of hard assets.

Institutional flows appear to support a divergence. Hedge fund exposure to Bitcoin ETFs has declined in recent quarters, while gold-backed funds now manage significantly larger total assets. During periods of market stress, capital has increasingly rotated into traditional safe havens.

Two Competing NarrativesBitcoin supporters maintain that volatility is a normal part of long-term adoption cycles. They argue that network fundamentals and institutional infrastructure remain intact despite the correction.

For now, Bitcoin stands between two sharply contrasting views. One sees a fragile bubble vulnerable to sentiment shocks, even political ones. The other sees a maturing asset navigating another cyclical downturn.

Never Miss a Beat in the Crypto World!Stay ahead with breaking news, expert analysis, and real-time updates on the latest trends in Bitcoin, altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, and more.

FAQsIs Bitcoin in a bubble right now?

Some critics call it a bubble due to speculation and volatility. Long-term investors argue it’s a cyclical correction, not a structural collapse.

Are institutions moving from Bitcoin to gold?

Some capital has rotated into gold during market stress. Bitcoin ETF flows have cooled, but long-term institutional interest remains.

Does political news really impact Bitcoin’s price?

Yes. Bitcoin often reacts to political headlines and regulation shifts, but long-term price trends are driven more by adoption and liquidity.

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

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The performances of Dogecoin and Shiba Inu this cycle have been disappointing for investors, who have waited years for the possibility of new all-time highs. Nevertheless, these two remain the largest meme coins by market cap and are often the first stop for investors looking to get into the meme market. Using predictions from the CoinCodex machine learning algorithm, this report will focus on the two leading meme coins and which one could bring the most returns in 2026.

Dogecoin Could End Up A Better Investment Than Shiba Inu Since the year 2026 began, both Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have struggled as their prices failed to see any notable recovery. But even this has not deterred expectations that the meme coins will recover. According to the CoinCodex website, both Dogecoin and Shiba Inu will see gains in the double-digits this year, but one will outperform the other.

Looking at the prediction for Shiba Inu, it shows that the highest point that the meme coin might reach this year lies at $0.000009277. Despite this being a 56.90% increase from the current levels, it is still more than 80% below its all-time high price of $0.00008.

Source: CoinCodex With this being the highest the meme coin is expected to go, investing in Shiba Inu could only end up bringing a 50% return on investment at best when buying at these levels. While this is a reasonable return, it pales in comparison to where the algorithm predicts Dogecoin could be in the same time period.

Just like Shiba Inu, the Dogecoin recovery is expected to start out slow. However, the algorithm predicts that the rally will pick up toward the end of the year. In contrast to Shiba Inu’s highest returns being only 56.90%, the algorithm predicts that the Dogecoin price would rise by 124.71% in the third quarter of the year.

Source: CoinCodex This means that investing in Dogecoin could end up doubling investments when buying at current levels. Not only this, the algorithm predicts that the rest of the year will be green for not only Dogecoin, but for Shiba Inu as well, suggesting that 2026 could be the year of recovery for the crypto assets.

However, for now, both Dogecoin and Shiba Inu continue to struggle with no sign of a recovery. This is largely due to the poor performance of Bitcoin, which seems set to crash below $60,000, plunging the crypto market into another bear cycle.

DOGE fails to sustain recovery | Source: DOGEUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied toward $66,000 after Tuesday’s gains in the US stock market, as cryptocurrencies sought to halt their 2026 slump.  

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin rallied above $66,000 on Wednesday, recovering alongside US stocks.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index flipped positive amid $258 million in ETF inflows.

While BTC’s correlation with stocks and gold is at its weakest since 2022, it historically signaled significant upside upon reversion.

BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBTC price recovers in tandem with US equitiesBitcoin’s recovery Wednesday aligns closely with similar rebounds in the US stock market, with AI and tech stocks leading the market higher.

Source: The Kobeissi LetterThe tech-focused Nasdaq led the recovery with 1.05% daily gains, while the S&P 500 rose 0.68%. The Dow locked in a 421-point gain, closing the trading day on Tuesday 0.86% higher.

Crypto-related stocks also saw moderate gains, with crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) rising by 1.12% and Strategy (MSTR) gaining 0.73%.

24-hour performance of US stocks. Source: Financial VisualizationsThe swift recovery of US equity markets appears to have played a role in easing negative pressure on crypto investors looking to cut risk asset exposure. 

This is evidenced by the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, a metric that tracks the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and Binance, which has flipped positive for the first time since Jan. 15.

This means “US buyers are stepping in,” said analyst Nic in a post on Wednesday, adding that the index needs to stay positive to ensure sustained buying pressure. 

Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CoinGlassThe return of demand in the US was also reflected by Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $258 million in net inflows on Tuesday.

Bitcoin won’t stay disconnected forever: AnalysisBitcoin, which is often viewed as a risk asset in the short term, has frequently moved in tandem with the stock market, particularly the S&P 500.

The past six months have seen a sustained period of this correlation breaking. The daily correlation coefficient index between BTC price and the US benchmark index, the S&P 500 index, is currently 0.32, and -0.45 with gold.

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500’s and gold daily correlation coefficient. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“Since late August, gold has surged +51%, the S&P 500 has gained +7%, and Bitcoin has fallen -43%,” onchain data provider Santiment said in a recent post on X.  

This marks the weakest correlation between Bitcoin and stocks since the FTX chaos in late 2022.

“Historically, when an asset that is usually correlated breaks away in this dramatic fashion, it typically does not stay disconnected forever,” Santiment said, adding:

“In the long term, this unusual separation actually argues for significant upside for Bitcoin and altcoins.” Bitcoin correlation with stocks and gold. Source: SantimentIf Bitcoin returns to its historical pattern of tracking equities during economic expansions, “it may have significant room to catch up,” Santiment concluded.

This view was echoed by the founder and CIO of trading company QCP Capital, Darius Sit, who argued that the “Bitcoin vs. gold” debate is often misread as a price contest, when the “more important driver is liquidity and market structure.”

The divergence between stocks and BTC “reflects position unwinds and leverage-driven flows, not a failure of Bitcoin’s longer-term narrative,” Sit said, adding:

“Bitcoin still behaves like a long-term inflation hedge and an increasingly legible form of collateral.”As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s adoption by institutions, banks, merchants, public companies and nation-states surged in 2025, confirming it as a maturing asset class for investors.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

BTC price traded around $65,412 as CryptoQuant data showed six straight months of weak network activity. Meanwhile, a 4 hour range map pinned $66,590 and $68,000 as the key reclaim levels that could reset near-term direction.

Bitcoin Network Activity Stays Weak for Six Months, CryptoQuant Data Shows

Bitcoin’s network activity hit its lowest level for six consecutive months, according to CryptoQuant, as onchain participation stayed weak while price moved through a choppy pullback into early 2026.

Active Addresses Momentum. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant and analyst @gaah_im shared a chart titled “Active Addresses Momentum,” which tracks changes in active addresses over time. The indicator stayed below zero from mid-2025 through the latest reading. Red bars mark low activity, while green bars mark stronger participation. The chart overlays Bitcoin’s price as a white line.

The data shows brief rebounds in activity that failed to hold. Instead, negative readings deepened into early 2026, including two highlighted troughs that followed major price swings. Bitcoin traded near the $68,000 area on the right edge of the chart, after topping above the $100,000 region earlier in the cycle.

In the post, CryptoQuant compared the current pattern to 2024, when a similar stretch of weak network activity preceded a roughly 30% Bitcoin correction. The note described the historical move as context rather than a forecast.

Bitcoin Tests Range Lows as Analyst Maps $66,590 and $68,000 TriggersBitcoin traded near the lower edge of its recent range on the 4 hour BTCUSDT chart on Binance, as trader Lennaert Snyder said price was “testing the range extremes” and nearing levels that could decide the next directional move.

BTCUSDT 4 hour range map. Source: Lennaert Snyder on X

In a post on X, Snyder said he wanted to see a market structure break before taking a long position. On the 4 hour view, he defined that break as reclaiming the $66,590 swing high. He added that the more important level to flip bullish sat near $68,000, which he described as the range point of control.

The chart highlights a nearby resistance band around $71,422 and a higher liquidity level around $76,971 as upside references if price regains $68,000. Snyder wrote that a move back above $68,000 would “trigger longs” toward those levels, while also making the area a potential short zone if price confirms rejection after a reclaim.

On the downside, he said a sweep and rejection of the $66,590 high could set up shorts targeting fresh weekly lows. The chart’s projected paths show both scenarios, with one route stepping higher through resistance and another turning lower after a failed reclaim.

Historically, whale inflows coincide with sensitive price phases and potentially influence XRP's short-term market direction.

Amid a broader market uptick, XRP posted a modest 3% increase over the past 24 hours. There has also been a notable surge in token whale inflows to Binance.

The 30-day average of large wallet transfers to the exchange has risen to roughly 2.54 billion XRP, which signals renewed activity from major holders after a previous period of relative decline.

XRP Whale Inflows Spike Daily whale inflows currently hover around 50 million XRP, which is indicative of ongoing engagement, though not as intense as the peaks observed in mid-2025. The whale flow metric, which tracks coins moving from large wallets to exchanges, is often used to gauge potential changes in the supply available for trading. Rising inflows can indicate that whales are repositioning, whether for selling, leveraging assets as collateral in derivatives, or preparing for increased trading activity.

CryptoQuant stated that the recent increase in the monthly average points to a gradual buildup rather than a single large transfer. In previous cases, higher whale inflows have coincided with sensitive phases in XRP’s price, sometimes preceding corrections due to added supply.

Other times it has signaled potential volatility, whether upward or downward.

As such, if spot demand remains weak, higher inflows could contribute to selling pressure, whereas if liquidity improves and market participation grows, the flows might reflect strategic repositioning by whales ahead of potential price movements.

Bears Still In Control Against the backdrop of increased whale inflows and a slight price appreciation, data still show signs of bearish pressure. Analyst CasiTrades recently observed that the recent trendline break is forming resistance, and with the price dropping below the previous B-wave low, attention has shifted toward support levels at $1.11 and $0.87.

You may also like: XRPL Metrics Drop 50–80%: Analyst Explains Why and Whether It Can Hurt XRP’s Price Ripple ETF Demand Is Gone as XRP Price Tumbles 11% Weekly Europe’s Société Générale Expands Euro Stablecoin to the XRP Ledger Local resistance around $1.40 remains significant, and as long as XRP trades below it, downward momentum may continue. She also added that the current phase is still a no-trade zone, and meaningful entries will only likely occur if lower supports are reached or if price flips above the $1.65 macro resistance.

On the institutional side of things, US spot XRP ETFs remained subdued. According to the data compiled by SoSoValue, no net inflows or outflows were recorded on February 20 and 23. On February 24, Bitwise’s XRP ETF bucked the trend with $3 million in inflows.

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Posted: February 25, 2026

While headlines focus on ETFs bleeding during this phase of fear and caution, companies continue to launch new investment options.

On the 24th of February, 21Shares launched its Spot SUI ETF [TSUI] on Nasdaq, showing that major players are not leaving crypto but actively shifting their focus.

Through this ETF, investors can gain exposure to Sui [SUI] without using wallets or managing private keys, making crypto easier for traditional investors.

What’s so unique about SUI? The Sui network is designed to handle large volumes efficiently—it has already processed massive amounts of stablecoin activity, showing that it is being actively used and not just hyped.

SUI has recorded around $6.5 billion in DEX trading volume over the past 30 days and handled more than $100 billion in stablecoin transfers for six months in a row. 

Data from DeFiLlama supports this trend, although the figure remains below the $22 billion recorded in October 2025.

Source: DeFiLlama

Still, by launching TSUI at a time when investors are reducing risk, 21Shares indicates that it is looking beyond Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH].

Executives weigh in Remarking on the same, Duncan Moir, President of 21Shares, said in a press release, 

“Sui’s rapid ecosystem growth, technical strength, and institutional relevance were clear to us early on. We are pleased to provide U.S. investors with transparent tools to access this next-generation blockchain.”

Echoing similar sentiments, Evan Cheng, co-founder and CEO of Mysten Labs, the original contributor to Sui, added, 

“In a little more than two years, Sui has made significant inroads into payments and cross-border settlement, which has transformed it into one of the world’s most robust onchain economies and attracted the interest of leading institutions like 21shares as a result.”

Crypto community appreciates the launch As expected, the crypto community also expressed excitement about this news, as noted by an X user who said, 

“Sui’s moment is finally here, no cap.”

Some users were also concerned about the price of SUI post the announcement and noted, 

“Will this pump $SUI back to $5 by tomorrow morning?”

SUI price action and more This coincided with SUI trading around $0.8718, showing a modest 1.74% recovery in the last 24 hours. While the ETF launch has created some positive momentum, the overall price action shows that uncertainty is still high.

From a technical perspective, the situation remains mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in the bear zone. At the same time, the MACD indicator is starting to show green histograms. 

Source: Trading Views

Is 21Shares the only one in this race? That said, 21Shares is not the first one to file for the SUI ETF. 

After registering a trust in Delaware on the 6th of March, 2025, Canary Capital moved quickly and launched the Canary Staked SUI ETF (SUIS) on the 18th of February, 2026, on Nasdaq.

On the same day, Grayscale also launched its GSUI product. This means TSUI is facing direct competition right from the start.

More importantly, Sui’s entry into the ETF market shows that crypto investing is no longer limited to just Bitcoin and Ethereum.

With S-1 filings coming for assets like Litecoin [LTC], Cardano [ADA], and even memecoins such as Dogecoin [DOGE], TRUMP, Bonk [BONK], and PENGU, the market is clearly expanding. 

Final Summary The timing of TSUI’s launch suggests that major firms are preparing for the next crypto cycle, not reacting to short-term fear. Strong on-chain data, including high DEX and stablecoin volumes, suggests that Sui has real usage beyond speculation.

A trader who bought $180,000 worth of PIPPIN tokens turned it into $6.7 million in worth. PIPPIN hit a new all-time high at $0.8454.  As the Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to stay in the extreme fear zone for an extended period, while Bitcoin remains down over the past month, select altcoins are showing notable resilience. Among them, pippin reached an all-time high today, even as broader market pressure weighs on major assets. While pippin holders are currently sitting on unrealized profits.

According to the on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain, a trader who created a wallet named BXNU5a four months ago and bought 8.16 million pippin tokens by spending approximately $180,000 currently has those tokens worth around $6.7 million. 

As the major cryptos are struggling with the monthly extended losses, BTC is nearly 28% down, then, ETH is 34% down, whereas pippin is up over 157.76% over a month. While writing, pippin token is one among the top gainers on CoinMarketCap. 

The token is, up nearly 10% in the last 24 hours. Before settling down, it had reached an all-time high at $0.8454 today.  With that, the daily trading volume has increased 53.37%, reaching toward $102 million. Meanwhile, pippin’s open interest has been reduced 1.76% in the last 24 hours at the time of writing.

PIPPIN Price Analysis The daily chart of PIPPIN shows strong bullish momentum over the past two weeks, after early February lows near $0.18–$0.20, and is now trading around $0.80. With that, the nearby resistance is placed near the recent high around $0.84 – $0.85, a  decisive breakout above this zone could reach the $0.90 level. On the downside, immediate support is seen around $0.75, followed by a stronger support zone near $0.65.  

When seeing the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index is sitting at 72, as it reached the overbought zone, which implies strong momentum, but it shows the probability of short-term consolidation or pullback. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence line remains above the signal line, and the value remains positive, for now the trend remains bullish. 

Top Updated Crypto News

Trump’s State of the Union Address Triggers a Controlled Surge for Cryptocurrencies

AERO Is Coiling After a 12% Pop—One Break Could Flip the Whole Range Prefer us on Google

AERO jumps 12% but remains within broader consolidation range.Chaikin Money Flow hits multi-month high, signaling strong inflows.Break above $0.352 could trigger short liquidations toward $0.400.Aerodrome Finance price climbed 12% over the past 24 hours, drawing renewed attention from traders. Despite the sharp uptick, AERO remains locked in a broader sideways structure.

This consolidation phase reflects cautious optimism rather than confirmed breakout strength. While short-term momentum improved, sustained upside requires stronger follow-through.

AERO Holders Exhibit OptimismThe Chaikin Money Flow indicator signals improving macro sentiment for Aerodrome Finance. Outflows that peaked around early December 2025 have steadily declined. Inflows now dominate, suggesting capital is returning to AERO. This shift indicates investors are gradually rebuilding exposure.

CMF currently sits at a three-and-a-half-month high. Elevated readings often reflect sustained buying pressure rather than short-lived speculation. Strengthening inflows point to growing confidence among participants. This macro bullishness may provide structural support for further price appreciation.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

AERO CMF. Source: TradingViewFutures market data reinforces the constructive outlook. AERO contracts are currently skewed toward long positions. Traders are positioning for potential upside continuation. Long exposure stands at approximately $2.35 million, reflecting notable bullish interest.

The $0.351 resistance level remains a critical barrier. A move above this threshold would trigger a significant short liquidation cluster worth roughly $623,560. Forced short covering can accelerate upward momentum. Such dynamics often amplify breakouts in volatile crypto markets.

AERO Liquidation Map. Source: CoinglassAERO is trading at $0.327 at the time of writing after posting a 12% daily gain. Despite the surge, the token remains within its consolidation range. Current technical and derivatives signals present a cautiously bullish outlook. However, confirmation depends on overcoming immediate resistance.

AERO Price Analysis. Source: TradingViewBreaching the $0.352 barrier is essential for a sustained breakout. Clearing this level would likely trigger short liquidations and strengthen bullish momentum. The Squeeze Momentum indicator shows compression building, while the histogram reflects underlying strength. A squeeze release could propel AERO toward $0.400.

AERO MACD. Source: TradingViewDownside risks persist if buyers fail to maintain control. Continued consolidation between $0.352 and $0.292 would signal hesitation. A breakdown below $0.292 would weaken the bullish structure. Further losses could push AERO toward $0.273 or even $0.243, invalidating the current recovery thesis.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

Debate over crypto market sentiment has intensified after fresh remarks about a possible bitcoin selloff tied to Donald Trump and his public statements.

Summary

Peter Schiff raises alarm over Trump and BitcoinInside Schiff’s hypothetical scenarioMarket backdrop and political contextCrypto community reaction to Schiff’s claimsWhat it reveals about crypto market sentiment Peter Schiff raises alarm over Trump and Bitcoin Longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff reignited controversy by arguing that a single social media post from Donald Trump could crash Bitcoin. The veteran gold advocate aired his view on X on February 25, claiming that the crypto market remains heavily driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals.

Schiff suggested that if Trump publicly labeled Bitcoin a “Ponzi,” the market reaction could be severe and trigger aggressive selling. Moreover, his comments quickly circulated across crypto communities, reviving the long running clash between Bitcoin supporters and traditional gold proponents who favor assets like physical bullion.

Inside Schiff’s hypothetical scenario In his post, Schiff asked followers to imagine Trump writing on Truth Social that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. He implied such a message could cause a sharp wave of profit taking and forced liquidations, especially among more speculative traders. He has repeatedly described Bitcoin as fragile and bubble like, and this time he doubled down on that stance.

In follow up remarks, he emphasized that markets driven by hype can reverse quickly when confidence cracks. According to Schiff, Bitcoin’s heavy reliance on sentiment makes it vulnerable to high profile criticism from political leaders. That said, his broader argument has not changed: he believes many investors treat Bitcoin as “digital gold” without fully understanding volatility and downside risks.

Schiff has long warned that negative narratives from influential figures could expose what he views as structural weaknesses in the asset. However, critics argue his framing ignores growing institutional interest and the evolving regulatory landscape, which they see as counterweights to pure narrative driven trading.

Market backdrop and political context The latest comments arrived as attention around Donald Trump and crypto policy escalates ahead of his 2025 State of the Union address. Recently, speculation has increased over how political messaging from the White House or campaign trail could influence digital asset markets, especially during periods of elevated uncertainty.

Bitcoin has traded mostly in the mid $60K range in recent weeks, with prices recovering to about $66,300 as the discussion unfolded. This performance underscores ongoing volatility but also a degree of resilience after previous drawdowns. Moreover, traders are watching whether any direct policy references to crypto will appear in upcoming speeches.

Importantly, the current environment looks different from earlier crypto cycles such as 2017 or 2021. Institutional adoption has increased, and U.S. policy signals in 2025, including the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve order, have helped stabilize sentiment among some investors. Because of this, several analysts argue the market is less fragile than before, even if short term volatility remains elevated.

Still, Schiff continues to predict major downside moves and maintains his view that Bitcoin ultimately fails as sound money. He has issued similar warnings many times over the past few years, often during periods of strong price performance, presenting his stance as a consistent cautionary signal to retail traders.

Crypto community reaction to Schiff’s claims Online reactions to Schiff’s scenario were sharply divided. Many crypto users dismissed his comments as outdated fear, uncertainty and doubt, and questioned the idea that one social post could “kill” Bitcoin in 2026. They highlighted that Bitcoin has already survived numerous high profile criticisms from regulators, economists and politicians over more than a decade.

Others responded by citing the network’s track record of weathering bans, negative headlines and exchange collapses without permanent damage. Moreover, some pointed to rising institutional bitcoin adoption as evidence that the asset is increasingly anchored by longer term holders, not just speculative traders chasing momentum.

However, a smaller group acknowledged that sentiment still plays a crucial role in short term price moves. They noted that crypto markets can react quickly to political headlines or unexpected statements from influential figures, even if the effects fade within days. In their view, Trump’s public stance still matters for price discovery, especially around key events.

So far, the discussion has largely remained inside crypto circles and social media threads rather than breaking into major mainstream outlets. That said, the intensity of the debate underscores how sensitive traders remain to any potential trump bitcoin comment, particularly when leverage in derivatives markets is high.

What it reveals about crypto market sentiment The exchange highlights a deeper debate that refuses to fade from the digital asset space. Critics like Schiff still see Bitcoin as largely speculative and narrative driven, highly exposed to shifts in crypto market sentiment. Supporters, meanwhile, argue the asset has matured into a globally recognized store of value with an expanding base of institutional and retail holders.

In reality, both forces may be shaping the market at the same time. Political comments can still move prices in the short term, especially when they trigger algorithmic trades or liquidations. However, the broader ownership base and the presence of long term investors suggest that a single post, even from a former president, is unlikely to inflict lasting structural damage.

Whether Peter Schiff’s warning about a potential bitcoin selloff proves meaningful or not, the episode underlines how crypto sentiment in 2025 remains highly sensitive to influential voices and political narratives. As Bitcoin trades near the mid $60K zone, traders continue to balance short term volatility against the longer term thesis of digital scarcity and global adoption.

Overall, Schiff’s scenario serves as a reminder that politics, perception and liquidity still interact closely in crypto markets, even as the sector gradually matures and integrates more deeply with traditional finance.

Alessia Pannone

Graduated in communication sciences, currently student of the master's degree course in publishing and writing. Writer of articles from an SEO perspective, with care for indexing in search engines.

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AERO rockets higher today. The token gained 12% in what looks like a pretty solid move, catching traders’ attention as momentum builds around the $0.327 mark where it’s currently sitting.

Money’s flowing back into AERO after a rough December that saw major outflows hit the token hard. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows capital coming back in, and it’s not just small retail buying either. CMF readings suggest sustained buying pressure that could keep pushing prices up if this trend holds. Investors seem way more confident now compared to last month when everyone was basically running for the exits.

Futures traders are betting big on more gains.

Around $2.35 million sits in long positions for AERO contracts, according to recent data. That’s a lot of bullish bets for a token that’s been stuck in consolidation mode. These traders clearly think something’s about to break loose, and they’re putting their money where their mouth is.

The big question mark hangs at $0.351 resistance. Breaking above that level could trigger what analysts call a short squeeze – basically forcing short sellers to buy back their positions and pushing prices even higher. It’s the kind of dynamic that makes crypto markets so wild and unpredictable.

AERO trades at $0.327 right now but it’s still trapped in a consolidation zone that’s been holding it back. The real test comes at $0.352 resistance – that’s where things get interesting. Success there could spark short covering and really get the bulls running.

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The Squeeze Momentum indicator shows compression building up, which often means a big move is coming. If that energy gets released upward, AERO could hit $0.400 pretty fast. But if momentum fades, the token might drift down to $0.243 or lower.

A drop below $0.292 would basically kill the current bullish setup and make traders question whether this recovery is real or just another fake-out.

TradingView analysts keep hammering home the importance of that $0.352 level. Per their latest notes, crossing above this resistance would validate recent bullish sentiment and potentially spark a rally. The market’s response to this threshold will determine AERO’s short-term path forward. More on this topic: Upbit Slaps Caution Tag on IoTeX.

Coinglass reported on February 25 that liquidation maps show a massive cluster of short positions around $0.351. That concentration means a move above this point could trigger liquidations, creating upward pressure and possibly leading to rapid price increases. It’s like a powder keg waiting to explode.

Harsh Notariya, who edits a popular crypto newsletter, thinks current market conditions are ripe for volatility. He said traders should stay alert because compressed momentum could lead to sudden and significant price shifts. The environment offers both opportunities and serious risks for anyone trading AERO right now.

Some traders remain cautious despite the optimism. Historical patterns show that without breaking above $0.352 resistance, AERO might just keep bouncing around in its current range. Uncertainty keeps the market on edge as investors wait for a decisive move that could redefine the token’s prospects.

Trading volumes for AERO jumped noticeably on February 25, major exchanges reported. The surge in activity shows heightened interest among market participants, with many positioning themselves for potential price shifts. Increased volume often signals big player movement and can foreshadow upcoming volatility.

Crypto strategist Jane Collins from Crypto Insights said AERO’s price action is closely tied to broader market sentiment. She noted that while the token has shown resilience, its path forward depends largely on breaking through current resistance. Collins pointed out that failure to do so might lead to prolonged stagnation.

On-chain data from Glassnode reveals AERO wallet activity increased 15% over the past week. The rise in wallet transactions suggests both institutional and retail investors are actively engaging with the token. Such activity often correlates with anticipated price movements as investors adjust positions based on market signals. Related coverage: Bitcoin Hits Make-or-Break Moment as Top.

Aerodrome Finance remains a focal point for traders looking to capitalize on short-term opportunities. Market attention stays firmly fixed on the $0.352 resistance level, with many anticipating a decisive move that could set the tone for AERO’s performance in coming weeks.

Coinalyze data from February 25 showed a spike in open interest for AERO futures. Increased open interest often signals heightened trader engagement as participants place bets on future price movements. The data suggests growing anticipation of volatility, with traders positioning themselves for potential swings in either direction.

Blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported a noticeable uptick in AERO’s social media mentions over the past 48 hours. The surge in social chatter reflects broader market focus on the token as traders and investors discuss potential breakout scenarios. Online engagement can often precede significant price movements since it shows heightened interest and speculation.

Crypto analyst Mark Feldman from Blockstream said crossing the $0.352 resistance threshold could serve as a catalyst for increased buying activity. He also noted that institutional players are closely watching the token’s recent performance and may enter the market upon confirmation of a breakout.

CoinGecko data from February 25 showed AERO’s 24-hour trading volume surpassed $10 million, reflecting substantial market activity increases. The increased liquidity could facilitate larger price movements should resistance get breached.

Post Views: 14

The cryptocurrency market is looking to end February 2026 under intense pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) hovering below $65,000 after its worst start to a year on record.

As March approaches, volatility is expected to persist, making certain assets particularly dangerous for trading due to structural weaknesses, poor performance, dilution risks, or fading narratives. 

Notably, the market remains susceptible to broader swings driven by macroeconomic headwinds, tariff uncertainties, liquidations, and reduced risk appetite.

In this context, Finbold has identified the following three cryptocurrencies to avoid trading next month.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) Shiba Inu (SHIB), a prominent meme coin, has been one of the hardest-hit assets in the ongoing downturn, shedding significant value year to date and from previous peaks. As of press time, SHIB was valued at $0.0000055, down 16% in 2026.

SHIB YTD price chart. Source: Finbold Analyses highlight persistent structural issues, including an inflationary supply with no clear scarcity mechanism, waning hype around its ecosystem, such as Shibarium, and vulnerability to broader altcoin underperformance.

In a market dominated by Bitcoin’s influence and macro caution, meme coins like SHIB face amplified downside from profit-taking, reduced retail interest, and competition from newer tokens. 

Therefore, trading SHIB in March risks further sharp declines if sentiment remains bearish or if liquidations accelerate, as it lacks strong fundamentals to support a quick rebound.

Tron (TRX) In the second spot is Tron (TRX), which remains a high-risk asset due to ongoing governance concerns, regulatory pressures, and questions about its long-term utility in a maturing DeFi and stablecoin landscape.

While it has shown some resilience in stablecoin volumes, including TRC-20 USDT dominance, broader altcoin weakness and macro deleveraging pose threats.

In March, with thinning liquidity and potential chain liquidations, TRX could face increased selling pressure as holders rotate into perceived safer assets or capitulate amid stagnant momentum. 

At press time, TRX was trading at $0.29, up about 0.5% year to date.

TRX YTD price chart. Source: Finbold Ethereum (ETH) Ethereum (ETH) has been among the worst-performing major cryptocurrencies in 2026, down over 30% year to date and trading at $1,893 at press time.

ETH YTD price chart. Source: Finbold The asset’s weakness has been driven by fading scarcity narratives, declining relative DeFi activity compared to competitors, and a heavy correlation to Bitcoin’s dominance.

Absent strong catalysts such as renewed ETF inflows, major network upgrades that drive adoption, or macro relief, ETH faces continued underperformance and could test lower support levels, potentially toward the $1,500 range if sentiment worsens. 

In March, ongoing uncertainty around institutional flows, tariff impacts, and liquidations increases the risk of outsized short-term losses.

The overall crypto outlook heading into March 2026 remains challenging, with the potential for extended pressure if support levels fail or macro conditions deteriorate further. 

Traders should prioritize strict risk management, avoid excessive leverage, limit exposure, and conduct thorough due diligence.

BTC is down ~50% from ATH, with 74% LTH profit shrinking as supply in loss hits 50% amid multi‑month selling.

Summary

Long-term BTC holders still sit on ~74% average profit, but that margin is compressing as price grinds toward the LTH cost basis near ~$39k. BTC has printed almost five straight red monthly candles after a volatility spike above 150%, while weekly RSI hits one of its most oversold levels ever around the $60k-$65k zone. BTC supply in loss has hit ~10m coins, roughly 50% of the 20m circulating, a capital destruction level that has historically coincided with bear market bottoms. Bitcoin long-term holders currently hold an average profit of approximately 74%, though that margin continues to decline as the cryptocurrency’s price moves closer to their cost basis, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.

The analyst noted that historical bear market cycles have been characterized by prices breaking below the long-term holder cost basis, triggering capitulation phases marked by realized losses of around 20%. Long-term holders are defined as investors known to be less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations, Darkfost stated.

Market recovery and bull phase entry have historically occurred only after such capitulation events, according to the analysis.

Glassnode reported that the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1, confirming a transition into an excess loss-realization regime. The blockchain analytics firm stated that these bearish conditions have historically persisted for at least six months before liquidity returns to markets.

Analyst James Check reported that Bitcoin has recorded nearly five consecutive red monthly candles following the largest volatility spike of the current cycle. Check observed that one-week realized volatility spiked above 150%, a level typically associated with capitulation events, and that weekly RSI has reached one of the most oversold readings in Bitcoin’s history. A significant amount of Bitcoin has migrated to new holders in a high price range this year, according to Check’s analysis.

Bitcoin supply in loss reached 10 million coins, the fourth-highest reading on record, analyst James Van Straten reported. Van Straten noted that circulating supply will reach 20 million Bitcoin next week, with 50% held at a loss. Historical patterns suggest such capital destruction levels are sufficient for a bear market bottom, according to Van Straten.

Bitcoin experienced a minor price rebound during early Asian trading hours, though bearish sentiment remains dominant in the market. The price movement formed another lower high while a key support level continues to hold, according to technical analysis.

The cryptocurrency market is having a breather following a poor start to the week.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, tapped the $66k level, adding more than 3% to its value in the last 24 hours. 

XRP, the native coin of the Ripple ecosystem, is also up by 3%, defending the $1.3 support level on Tuesday. 

The performance comes amid heightened volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market, accentuated by tariff-triggered uncertainty.

Furthermore, investors in risk-based assets like Bitcoin and XRP remain on edge as the United States (US) trade partners brace for a fresh 10% 150-day temporary tariff.

The change in tariff policy came despite the Supreme Court striking down earlier duties imposed by President Donald Trump aimed at reducing the trade deficit.

Despite the relief, XRP is still trading under heavy pressure, with derivatives and institutional demand also weak. 

XRP defends the $1.3 level amid cooling ETF demandXRP is up 3% in the last 24 hours and is now trading at $1.36 per coin.

The performance comes as the prevailing risk-off sentiment has seen investors remain on the sidelines.

This has affected activity in the XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) market.

SoSoValue reveals that RP ETFs have continued to face subdued activity, with no flows since Friday. 

Thanks to this latest development, the cumulative inflows average $1.23 billion, with net assets under management at $875 million.

Furthermore, the derivatives market is extending its weakness.

XRP’s futures Open Interest (OI) reads $2.24 billion on Wednesday, down from the $2.29 billion and $2.40 billion recorded on Tuesday and Monday, respectively.

The OI has persistently declined from the record $10.94 billion in July, undermining retail interest in the remittance token.

Technical outlook: Will XRP reclaim the weekly high of $1.42?XRP is trading around the $1.36 region as its 4-hour chart remains extremely bearish.

The coin is trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), 100- and 200-day EMAs, underscoring a dominant downward trend.

The momentum indicators remain bearish despite the temporary relief in the market.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below the signal line, limiting XRP’s recovery potential in the near term. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 46 signals weak momentum. However, it has not entered the oversold region yet.

But if the recovery continues, XRP could rally towards the nearest resistance level at $1.51, where prior rebounds stalled.

The next major resistance is the 50-day EMA around $1.64.

The support level at $1.30 held on Tuesday, giving room for this relief pump.

If the support level fails to hold, XRP could dip towards the $1.25 psychological level.

Sustained trading below this support level would keep sellers in control and maintain pressure toward lower daily lows.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to reclaim $65,000 as support into Wednesday’s Wall Street open as rumors swirled around US institutional pressure.

Key points:

Bitcoin bounces 2.5% as talk turns to alleged selling pressure from Wall Street trading company Jane Street.

Jane Street rebuts claims of crypto market manipulation during the 2022 bear market.

“Razor thin” order books boost BTC price volatility.

Data from TradingView tracked a BTC price rebound, taking BTC/USD to $66,300 on Bitstamp before the pair consolidated.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Daily price gains remained at more than 2% at the time of writing, while crypto market participants became increasingly interested in potential deliberate BTC price suppression.

A theory circulating on social media revolved around secretive quantitative investment firm Jane Street, now subject to legal action by defunct crypto company Terraform Labs.

Coordinated algorithmic selling of Bitcoin at 10am Eastern time daily, it alleged, provided the main impetus for months of BTC price downside beginning in October 2025.

What Happened Today:

>Jane Street was exposed for massive manipulation of the crypto market and for being behind the TerraLuna collapse.

>An insider leaked that they were forced to shut down their trading algos.

> no 10am price slam for the first time.

>8pm, Bitcoin…

— AMCrypto (@AMCryptoAlex) February 25, 2026 Amid the ongoing legal proceedings, Jane Street may have been forced to suspend its trading strategy, leaving the market to adjust higher.

The Terraform Labs complaint makes specific reference to “market manipulation” that impacted crypto throughout 2022, the year in which Bitcoin put in its last bear market bottom of $15,600 in Q4.

Jane Street told Cointelegraph that the accusations were “baseless, opportunistic claims.”

The 10am argument, meanwhile, failed to convince many. Crypto YouTuber Wise Advice was among them, suggesting that the theory was too simplistic to be valid.

🚨 Everyone on CT right now:

“Jane Street got sued.”
“10AM manipulation stopped.”
“ $BTC finally free.”

Do you really think they’re that stupid?

You’re talking about Jane Street.

A top quant firm.
And they supposedly:

• Ran a visible daily pattern
• Let everyone track it…

— Wise Advice (@wiseadvicesumit) February 25, 2026
BTC price versus “razor thin” liquidityCommenting on the latest BTC price move, traders remained cautious.

“$BTC is facing major resistance at $66k - from both the local range lows and the 4h trend,” trader Jelle wrote in his latest analysis on X. 

“Flipping that could spark short-term relief, but until that happens, the trend is clear. Don't fight it.” BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Jelle/X
Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, said that a “razor thin order book” on exchanges had contributed to the price rebound.

Overhead sell liquidity, he told X followers, had been pulled in advance of US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.

Looks like we got a roof pull just before Trump's State of the Union Address, and $BTC price ripped through a razor thin order book. pic.twitter.com/bgBtwg6aaZ

— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) February 25, 2026 The 24-hour crypto liquidations totaled $333 million at the time of writing, per data from CoinGlass, with shorts accounting for $213 million of that figure.

Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

According to on-chain data, large Cardano holders continue to accumulate despite the recent bearish phase on the markets.

Since October's sell-off, which wiped out nearly $20 billion in leveraged bets, cautious sentiment has remained in the crypto market, with several cryptocurrencies, including Cardano, breaking through multiple key support levels as they headed lower.

Taken from a high of $0.90 in October 2025, Cardano has declined over 71%, currently trading above $0.26.

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Despite this price drop, on-chain data highlights Cardano's large holders to be resilient. According to Santiment, Cardano's key whales and sharks have quietly been accumulating over the last six months. While Cardano's price has dropped over 71% from $0.90 to $0.26, wallets holding 100,000 ADA to 100 million ADA have added 819.4 million more ADA worth $213.9 million and over 1.6% of the total supply.

🐳🦈 Cardano's key whales & sharks have quietly been accumulating over the past 6 months. While its price has fallen over 71% from $0.90 to $0.26, wallets with 100K-100M $ADA have added +819.4M more ADA ($213.9M) & +1.6% of the total supply. pic.twitter.com/rmyfi8E0XV

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 24, 2026 According to Santiment, key Cardano stakeholders accumulated 819.14 million ADA and 1.6% more of the supply in six months.

ADA holdings of large holders rose from 24.54 billion to 25.35 billion Cardano held in six months. In percentage terms, this is from 66.84% to 68.44% of the supply held in six months.

ADA priceSince the massive sell-off started four months ago, cautious sentiment has plagued the crypto market, and Cardano broke through multiple key support levels as it headed lower.

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ADA is on track for its sixth straight month of falling since August 2025, and it is down 9.34% so far in February. The slide, which extends a sell-off that began in October, comes amid broader risk-off sentiment across global markets.

At the time of writing, ADA was up 3.22% in the last 24 hours to $0.265 and 5.79% in the last seven days.

As Midnight prepares for mainnet, it continues to expand its ecosystem with a set of trusted federated node operators to support early network operations and infrastructure, ahead of a transition to community-driven block production later this year. In recent news, MoneyGram has joined as an initial federated node operator, following Google Cloud.

Bitcoin is entering a period where macro sequencing matters more than narrative.

Equity markets are trading near record valuations, real yields remain elevated, and credit markets are expanding into increasingly opaque corners of the financial system. None of these conditions guarantees an imminent break. But together they form the backdrop for what could become a high-volatility window for risk assets.

For Bitcoin, the key question centers on whether stress emerges in the financial plumbing beneath elevated asset valuations and how quickly policymakers move to contain it.

Macro strategist Michael Pento describes the current setup as a “triple bubble”: equities priced near historic extremes, housing constrained by mortgage rates near 6%, and private credit racing toward $2 trillion in assets under management. The label is provocative, but the framework is useful because it emphasizes sequencing.

If credit fractures first, liquidity evaporates, and Bitcoin likely sells off alongside everything else. If policy support arrives before a fracture spreads, Bitcoin may instead behave as a high-beta liquidity trade, rebounding faster than traditional risk assets.

The system rarely breaks because valuations look stretched. It breaks when credit and bond plumbing force selling, and Bitcoin’s 24/7 liquidity means it trades both the panic and the rescue harder than almost anything else.

Recent data shows stress signals accumulating without yet tripping a fracture.

The ICE BofA US High Yield option-adjusted spread registered 2.95% on Feb. 23, still tight relative to crisis regimes.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet stood at $6.613 trillion on Feb. 18, up roughly $28.8 billion over four weeks, a modest expansion that doesn't signal emergency liquidity.

Real yields, measured by the 10-year TIPS yield, hovered around 1.80% on Feb. 20, elevated enough to pressure non-yielding assets. Stablecoin market capitalization sat at approximately $308.8 billion with a 30-day change of -0.18%, essentially flat.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $2.6 billion in combined outflows since the start of 2026, with around $4.3 billion exiting over five weeks.

Bitcoin sells off first, questions laterA deflationary liquidation begins in credit markets, not equity indices.

High-yield spreads widen sharply, funding markets show stress, volatility spikes, and cash becomes the only position anyone wants.

Bitcoin's behavior in these windows is predictable: perpetual funding rates flip negative, open interest dumps as leveraged positions unwind, stablecoin supply contracts as liquidity exits the system, and ETF outflows accelerate.

March 2020 offers a clean historical anchor. Bitcoin collapsed nearly 40% on Mar. 12 during the global liquidity shock, selling off alongside equities, credit, and commodities as participants scrambled for dollar liquidity.

A credit-driven liquidation can easily produce -20% to -40% moves in Bitcoin within days.

VanEck noted in early February 2026 that Bitcoin futures open interest peaked above $90 billion in October, and the market has since shed more than 45% of peak leverage, leaving room for further forced selling if credit stress materializes.

Moody's expects private credit assets under management to surpass $2 trillion in 2026 and approach $4 trillion by 2030, with Reuters reporting that Bank of America has committed $25 billion to the space.

The growth concentrates credit risk in less-transparent structures with longer lockups and weaker covenant protections.

If a credit event triggers forced asset sales in private credit portfolios, the ripple hits public markets through collateral calls and margin pressure. And Bitcoin, as the most liquid 24/7 risk asset, absorbs selling disproportionately.

Bitcoin futures open interest declined approximately 45% from its October 2025 peak above $90 billion to early February 2026 levels, while Bitcoin's price fell from around $68,000 to near $60,000 before rebounding toward $67,000.Bitcoin front-runs the policy responseThe opposite sequence begins with visible policy support.

The Fed's balance sheet expands, emergency facilities appear, and real yields fall. Bitcoin's response in these regimes is equally predictable: funding and basis normalize, stablecoin supply rises as liquidity returns, ETF flows stabilize or flip positive, and open interest rebuilds.

In a visible rescue regime, Bitcoin often behaves like a high-beta liquidity trade, recovering faster than traditional risk assets because it carries no credit risk, no earnings to disappoint. It acts as a liquid claim on a fixed-supply monetary asset that benefits when real yields fall.

March 2023 banking turmoil provides the template. Bitcoin rose 26% in a week and roughly 40% in 10 days as banking stress shifted expectations toward easier policy, front-running the Fed's eventual liquidity support.

In February 2026, Bitcoin whipped from around $60,000 to above $70,000 in a single day, its largest one-day rise since March 2023, highlighting how macro risk sentiment remains the dominant driver during stress windows.

March 2020 saw Bitcoin collapse alongside everything else, but it also saw the Fed cut rates to zero, launch unlimited quantitative easing, and establish emergency lending facilities within weeks.

Bitcoin recovered from its Mar. 12 low and quintupled over the next year as real yields stayed deeply negative and fiscal spending exploded.

The lesson is that Bitcoin trades the liquidity cycle with a higher beta than almost any other asset, and timing matters more than narrative.

A flowchart shows three potential paths for Bitcoin amid triple bubble stress: credit fracture leading to -20% to -40% selloffs, policy rescue triggering high-beta rebounds, or stagflation causing choppy price action between risk-off pressure and debasement narratives.When neither path dominatesThe messiest scenario is one in which inflation remains sticky, bond markets demand higher term premiums, and real yields remain elevated, limiting policymakers' ability to deliver a swift rescue without reigniting inflation concerns.

In this regime, Bitcoin chops. Risk-off pressure competes with debasement-hedge narratives. Rallies fade when real yields prove sticky, or policy support disappoints.

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The 10-year TIPS yield at 1.80% sits well above the zero-to-negative real yields that characterized Bitcoin's strongest periods.

Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.01% as of Feb. 19.

The Buffett indicator, around 206%, the highest level in the series' history according to Advisor Perspectives, suggests equity valuations leave little room for multiple expansion without earnings growth or falling discount rates.

If credit stress arrives without a rapid policy pivot, Bitcoin faces a regime in which neither the liquidation nor the rescue path dominates.

Tracking the transitionA simple framework for tracking which regime is active combines four inputs refreshed weekly: the change in Fed total assets over four to eight weeks, the change in stablecoin market capitalization over 30 days, the change in high-yield spreads over two to four weeks, and the change in 10-year real yields over two to four weeks.

When the score plunges, Bitcoin tends to trade like a high-beta asset during a liquidity event. When the score turns up, Bitcoin tends to outperform as reflation expectations build.

Current readings suggest a neutral-to-negative liquidity backdrop.

The Fed's balance sheet is up modestly but not surging. Stablecoin supply is flat to slightly down. Credit spreads remain tight. Real yields are elevated and sticky. Bitcoin spot ETFs are seeing sustained outflows, and derivatives open interest has fallen by nearly half from its peak.

The setup resembles a market waiting for a catalyst, either credit stress that forces liquidation or policy support that reignites the liquidity trade.

IndicatorLatest reading (date)Direction (↑/↓ + timeframe)Interpretation (Liquidation / Rescue / Neutral)ICE BofA US High Yield OAS2.95% (Feb 23)→ tight / not widening (snapshot)Neutral (no credit fracture signal yet)Fed total assets (WALCL)$6.613T (Feb 18)↑ +$28.8B / 4wNeutral → Rescue (mild) (modest expansion, not emergency)10y TIPS real yield~1.80% (Feb 20)→ elevated / sticky (recent weeks)Neutral → Liquidation (tight) (higher real yields pressure risk assets)Stablecoin market cap$308.8B (latest)↓ -0.18% / 30dNeutral → Liquidation (mild) (liquidity not expanding)Spot BTC ETF flows-$2.6B YTD; -$4.3B / 5w↓ outflows (YTD + 5-week streak)Liquidation (risk-off positioning)BTC futures open interestPeak >$90B (Oct); ~-45% from peak↓ deleveraging since OctNeutral → Liquidation (less leverage, but reflects ongoing risk-off)30y fixed mortgage rate (Freddie Mac)6.01% (Feb 19)→ elevated (recent weeks)Neutral (tight housing finance; stress backdrop, not a trigger alone)Buffett indicator (market cap/GDP proxy)~206% (Jan 2026)↑ elevated (structural)Neutral (setup) (valuation risk amplifier, not the plumbing trigger)Private credit AUM + bank commitment>$2T (2026); ~ $4T (2030); BofA $25B↑ structural growth (multi-year)Neutral → Liquidation risk (setup) (opacity/lockups can amplify a credit shock)The tells arrive in credit plumbingThe actionable monitoring framework focuses on credit and crypto plumbing. High-yield spreads inflecting higher from tight levels signal credit market confidence eroding.

Treasury volatility and term premium pressure reveal whether bond markets are pricing policy flexibility or constraint. A Fed balance sheet that stays flat or declines while spreads widen confirms the absence of a backstop.

On the crypto side, sharply falling open interest indicates forced selling. Contracting stablecoin market capitalization shows liquidity leaving the system. Persisting ETF outflows confirm institutional risk-off positioning.

Rescue confirmation arrives through different channels.

Fed total assets rising meaningfully week over week signals active liquidity provision. The 10-year TIPS yield rolling over shows real yields falling. Stablecoin supply growing alongside normalizing derivatives funding confirms liquidity returning to crypto markets.

The transition from liquidation to rescue often happens fast, as March 2020 saw Bitcoin collapse and rebound within weeks as policy support materialized.

The triple bubble thesis is most useful not as a prediction but as a sequencing framework.

Credit fractures force liquidations, during which Bitcoin trades for pennies on the dollar. Policy rescues create liquidity surges, with Bitcoin front-running traditional assets.

The current macro setup, consisting of stretched valuations, elevated real yields, tight credit spreads, flat stablecoin supply, and persistent ETF outflows, suggests markets are positioned for stress but haven't yet experienced the credit plumbing failure that forces selling.

Bitcoin's next major move depends less on whether a bubble exists and more on whether credit breaks before the Fed rescues it.

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