Market Signal Briefing

The new BB-token series lets users earn passive income while providing liquidity or collateral in BounceBit's expanding CeDeFi infrastructure.

Key Takeaways

BounceBit launches BB-tokens as a new rebasing token standard embedding yield directly within the token.
The release covers five variants: BBTC, BBETH, BBSOL, BBNB, and BBUSD.

BounceBit, a CeDeFi platform, today unveiled BB-tokens as a new rebasing token standard that automatically accrues yield within its blockchain ecosystem. The launch includes five variants: BBTC, BBETH, BBSOL, BBNB, and BBUSD.

The rebasing mechanism in tokens like BBTC and BBETH enables automatic yield earning while maintaining asset usability as collateral or liquidity providers across the BounceBit platform.

BounceBit’s V3 integrates a built-in perpetuals exchange, allowing seamless trading alongside the new BB-tokens for enhanced ecosystem functionality. The upgrade consolidates CeDeFi vaults across multiple chains, routing deposits in assets like ETH and SOL directly into the $BB value-accrual system.

The $BB token serves as the primary native token that captures value from protocol cash flows and buybacks within the CeDeFi ecosystem.

Disclaimer

BNB's price movement follows a 45% surge in the past month, which made it the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Oct 9, 2025, 3:10 p.m.

BNB, the native token of BNB Chain and widely used for transaction fee discounts on Binance, fell more than 2% in the last 24-hour period amid a trading volume spike and as BNB Chain memecoin trades unwind.

The token dropped from $1,308 to a low of $1,255 earlier in the session, recovering to $1,270, where it’s currently trading. The selloff was met with high-volume buying near the $1,255-$1,280 range, signaling potential institutional accumulation at lower prices, according to CoinDesk Research's technical analysis model.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

Despite a modest bounce, BNB struggled to reclaim key resistance near $1,320, leaving short-term bearish pressure intact.

This turbulence came as BNB Chain hit a record 5 trillion gas used in a single day, driven by 24 million swap transactions, accounting for 77% of total network activity, according to Dune data.

A new standard gas fee of 0.05 Gwei, now adopted across key ecosystem partners like Binance and Trust Wallet, has made on-chain trading cheaper and faster.

“The scale of the rise is hard to ignore, and it’s easy to get caught up in the headline numbers. But what this really shows is that community remains one of the strongest forces driving blockchain participation,” Max Rabinovitch, Chief Strategy Officer at Chiliz, told CoinDesk.

“Digital communities thrive on shared purpose and sentiment, whether that’s an internet subculture, a real-world sports club, or a specific utility. In BNB’s case, its growth reflects an active trading community that’s deeply engaged,” Rabinovitch added. “Price movements aside, however, it’s another reminder that community is still the backbone of the digital asset space.”

BNB’s drop, it’s worth pointing out, came after the token surged more than 45% in a month to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, behind just bitcoin and ether.

Growing corporate accumulation also played a role in the rally. CEA Industries revealed earlier this year that its BNB holdings moved to 480,000 tokens.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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XPL drops 14% in 24h, returning to key support at $0.75 as RSI hits oversold and Open Interest stays above $1B.

Plasma (XPL) has recorded a sharp decline after its recent rally. The token is now priced around $0.75, reflecting a 14% drop in the last 24 hours and 23% over the past week.

The move follows a brief push that took the price as high as $1.07 in the past seven days.

Price Back at Support Area
Meanwhile, the price has returned to a support range between $0.74 and $0.78, where previous consolidation and a rising trendline converge. This area acted as a base for the last upward move. The 0/8 Murrey Math Line at $0.78 also aligns with this zone, suggesting it remains a level of interest.

Source: TradingView
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is now around 30, placing it in oversold conditions. Early signs of a possible reversal are visible, but there is no confirmation yet. If the trendline and support hold, buyers may step in. If not, lower levels around $0.68 and $0.59 could come into play.

Futures Open Interest Holds Above $1B
XPL futures Open Interest is currently around $1.09 billion, up sharply from below $300 million in late August. The jump began during the late September rally, when the price climbed toward $1.6. During that move, Open Interest peaked, suggesting strong trading activity and high positioning.

Source: Coinglass
Although both price and Open Interest have come off their highs, the current level shows that traders remain active. The chart reflects that a large number of positions are still open, which may keep price movement volatile in the short term.

Analyst Says Market Now Finds Fair Value
Crypto analyst Duo Nine posted a breakdown of XPL’s recent activity. He said,

“At $1.70 insiders started to unload… market maker support at $0.85 failed under pressure.”

He added that with the pump phase over, the market is now moving to “find the real price of XPL.”

Data shows XPL hit its all-time high of $1.68 on September 28, while the all-time low of $0.72 came just days before. With current price action testing that same range, traders are watching to see if support holds or if further decline follows.

Check out the recent news surrounding Ripple and its ecosystem.

Ripple and its native token are among the most intriguing topics within the crypto industry. In the following lines, we will touch upon the latest developments and outline some of the recent price forecasts.

The Latest Partnership
Earlier today (October 9), Ripple announced a strategic partnership with Bahrain Fintech Bay (BFB). The latter is the country’s leading fintech incubator and ecosystem builder, partnering with government entities and industry leaders to accelerate the nation’s blockchain and crypto adoption.

According to the collaboration, both parties will work together to positively contribute to Bahrain’s digital asset ecosystem through various activities, including supporting the development of pilot projects, educational initiatives, and local events that can attract more investors and drive innovation. Speaking on the matter was Reece Merrick, Managing Director, Middle East and Africa at Ripple:

“The Kingdom of Bahrain has emerged as an early adopter of blockchain technology and was one of the first jurisdictions globally to regulate crypto assets. At Ripple, we look forward to working with Bahrain Fintech Bay to continue laying the foundations for a thriving local blockchain industry, as well as ultimately offering our digital assets custody solution and stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD) to Bahrain’s financial institutions.”

For her part, Suzy Al Zeerah, Chief Operating Officer at Bahrain Fintech Bay, described the Kingdom as a financial services hub, whose legacy has been further enhanced in the crypto space.

Ripple Whales Sell en Mass
XRP’s price has dipped by 6% over the past month and currently trades at around $2.83. During that timeframe, large investors (known as whales) have offloaded 440 million tokens, which equals more than $1.2 billion.

Such efforts could lead to a further downtrend since they increase the amount of coins available on the open market and might spread panic across the XRP army.

Following the latest selling spree, whales (wallets having between one million and ten million tokens) now control a total of 6.51 billion XRP, or less than 11% of the asset’s circulating supply.

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Price Forecasts
Earlier this week, the popular analyst Ali Martinez assumed that XRP might be headed for a retest of the critical support zone at $2.72.

Other industry participants, though, have shared much more bullish predictions. X user Mikybull Crypto envisioned a potential spike to a new all-time high above $4 in the coming months. For her part, CasiTrades forecasted a substantial pump as long as the price surpasses and holds the $3 level.

Meanwhile, XRP’s exchange netflow has been predominantly negative in the past few weeks, meaning investors continue to shift from centralized platforms toward self-custody methods. This supports the bullish thesis since it results in reduced immediate selling pressure.

XRP Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass

Cardano (ADA) is regaining bullish traction after weeks of sideways consolidation, rising back above its 50-day moving average and drawing attention to the critical $0.94 resistance level. Traders see this price zone as the next major hurdle before ADA attempts a breakout toward the psychological $1.00 mark — a level that could signal a continuation of the broader Q4 altcoin recovery.

In brief
Bitcoin dipped below $121,400 while the S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold, and silver all hit record highs.
BTC has underperformed stocks and precious metals for two months, with gold up 53% versus Bitcoin's 29% gain in 2025.
Fed Chair Powell's brief remarks offered no economic guidance, leaving traders uncertain about upcoming monetary policy decisions.
Bitcoin has cooled slightly while the S&P, Nasdaq, and precious metals have all reached new all-time highs in the past day—and that’s unsurprising, an analyst told Decrypt.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands for $121,336 after having dropped by 0.9% in the past day. But it’s still 1.5% higher than it was last week and 7.6% above last month’s price, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko.

And despite the small pullback, BTC is still trading within 3.8% of its new all-time high above $125,000, which was set over the weekend.

Over the same period, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 set intraday and closing record highs yesterday. Gold has surged past $4,000 for the first time ever and silver has surpassed $51 per ounce, according to TradingEconomics.

“Bitcoin continues to show weakness compared to the S&P, Nasdaq, and precious metals like gold and silver. I don’t expect today’s Powell speech to change that,” pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn told Decrypt. “For the past two months, Bitcoin has consistently underperformed these assets.”

Users on Myriad, a prediction market platform owned by Decrypt parent company DASTAN, agree that Bitcoin’s chances of outperforming gold in 2025 are very low. As of this morning, 68% of participants think the precious metal will beat the world’s largest cryptocurrency this year.

Bitcoin has climbed 29% so far this year, from about $94,000 to its current level. But gold started the year around $2,642 per ounce and has climbed as high as $4,040 by Thursday morning—a staggering 53% increase since January.

Maartunn also mentioned Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s opening remarks at the Community Bank Conference in D.C. this morning. Usually investors go through Powell’s speech transcripts with a fine-tooth comb, looking for clues about how the Federal Open Markets Committee views monetary policy.

But his pre-recorded video lasted less than one minute and made no mention of current economic conditions. That’s left traders with little to gauge how the FOMC might vote when it next meets at the end of the month. In the hours following his speech, Bitcoin dropped 1.3% and dipped below $122,000.

Maartunn said Bitcoin investors could be waiting a while if they’re hoping to see BTC outperform stocks and precious metals.

“I’d prefer to see a sustained shift over several days before considering the two-month trend broken,” Maartunn said.

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ShapeShift, a decentralized non-custodial trading platform, is teaming up with Zcash to bring shielded transactions directly to its users.

Summary

Decentralized non-custodial exchange ShapeShift has integrated with Zcash to enhance network privacy for users.
The integration will see users benefit from shielded transactions across Bitcoin, Ethereum and other blockchains.
Zcash community has allocated a $50,000 grant to ShapeShift.

ShapeShift’s integration with the privacy-focused blockchain network is a major move that sees the trading platform join a small group of exchanges tapping into shielded transactions for true on-chain privacy. More than that, integrating with Zcash means the community-led multichain decentralized exchange aggregator is not “defunct,” as has been rumored in recent months.

Why is this important
The integration affirms Zcash (ZEC) and ShapeShift’s commitment to privacy and user protection, with this coming amid regulatory scrutiny of projects within the crypto privacy market.

“Privacy shouldn’t be scary, but trading ZEC on centralised exchanges often is. Their very structure and legal risk kill true privacy. This partnership puts control back in the user’s hands. It is a perfect use case for our DAO structure and multichain functionality. We want to show that crypto can remain open, accessible, and private — just as it was always meant to be,”said Houston Morgan, growth and community workstream lead at ShapeShift.

ShapeShift secures $50,000 from Zcash Community Grants
With Zcash, ShapeShift is bringing private transactions directly to its self-custodial wallet ecosystem. The move also comes with a notable $50,000 grant from Zcash Community Grants, funds that are set to bolster the DEX aggregator’s technical and marketing investments.

Already, ShapeShift has undertaken notable integrations using part of the grant. These include key infrastructure upgrades, such as teaming up with Liquify, a Web3 infrastructure provider that allows users to stake and build on over 90 blockchains. The platform now runs ShapeShift’s remote procedure call endpoints across multiple chains. 

Liquify’s node infrastructure allows the DEX aggregator to tap into features such as faster execution, network reliability, and flexibility. Meanwhile, funding has helped ShapeShift redesign its application interface, which now delivers a Uniswap-style swaps platform optimized for mobile.

Founded in 2014, ShapeShift’s growth has included its establishment as a fully open-source decentralized autonomous organization. The DAO integrates with more than 15 blockchains, offering no-KYC access to crypto trading.

Users now have multichain access to direct trading and swaps for Zcash’s native token. Support includes ZEC swaps across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Arbitrum.

Cover image via U.Today

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

XRP has confirmed a death cross on its hourly chart, coinciding with its recent price drop.

A death cross occurs when a short-term moving average such as the 50 MA falls below the long-term moving average.

In the case of XRP, the hourly moving average 50 has fallen below the 200 MA, creating a death cross.

HOT Stories

XRP/USD Hourly Chart, Courtesy: TradingViewThe XRP price has steadily dropped since a high of $3.10 on Oct. 2. The drop reached a low of $2.78 in today's trading session as the broader crypto market saw a retreat. Traders are currently eyeing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for clues on Fed policy amid data gaps from the government shutdown, which has now entered its ninth day.

Recently released Fed minutes indicate that while officials were united in their drive to lower interest rates in September, they were divided over how many rate cuts they should enact from October onward.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the Community Bank Conference in Washington today.

What's next? At press time, XRP was down 2.54% in the last 24 hours to $2.79 and down 5.7% weekly.

According to Ali, a crypto analyst, XRP could find support at $2.73. If it holds, a rebound to $3.10 is likely.  

On the other hand, sellers will attempt to strengthen their positions by pulling the price below the $2.69 support. If they succeed, XRP may start a downward move toward $2.33.

This negative view might be invalidated in the short term if the XRP price turns upward and closes above $2.73, as previously stated. This could catapult XRP to $3.20 and subsequently to $3.38.

As reported, Ripple announced its collaboration with Bahrain FinTech Bay to accelerate crypto adoption and introduce RLUSD to key financial institutions in the Middle Eastern country.

Cover image via U.Today

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

The last 24 hours in crypto looked like one giant margin call, with over $607 million in leveraged bets wiped out across exchanges. Bitcoin alone saw $149.48 million liquidated, Ethereum traders lost $174.54 million and Solana and XRP followed with $27.34 million and $15.67 million, respectively.

The imbalance was brutal: $420.76 million in longs got "rekt" compared to $186.87 million shorts, a perfect storm for those who became too bullish.

For XRP, the bloodbath coincides with a technical setup that actually sharpens the focus. Ali Martinez mapped $2.73 as the line that needs to hold, a support that, if respected, could fuel a rebound to $3.10. With XRP now hovering just under $2.80 after back-to-back dips, the proximity to that support makes it one of the most interesting charts on the board.

The liquidation data backs this up: the “max pain” for shorts sits at $3.149, meaning bears would be squeezed hard if XRP takes even a modest leg higher.

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Pain or relief?Across the board, it is pretty much the same story: Bitcoin's short pain zone is $126,500, ETH's is $4,797 and Solana's is $242 — all just above where spot trades are right now. That is why exchanges just flushed hundreds of millions in positions; traders crowded one side of the book and the market flipped it.

The funny thing is that XRP's best case is also its simplest. If XRP can hold $2.73 and push through $3.10, the market will get some relief but also trigger liquidations on the other side. That is why XRP's "best case" is not just survival but potentially the most profitable reversal in this liquidation-soaked week.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin retained range-bound trading above $120,000 after an 8% leverage reset in futures.

Spot demand and declining open interest point to renewed buyer confidence.

The MVRV ratio signaled a potential 15% to 25% upside, targeting $140,000 to $150,000 by the end of Q4.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to range trade between $120,000 and $125,000 after a sharp, but orderly, deleveraging across futures markets, suggesting that $120,000 could emerge as a key demand zone for traders in the short term.

According to market analyst Skew, Bitcoin’s recent rebound from the $120,000 level underscored buyer bids at that range. Spot market data from Binance indicated an uptick in the cumulative volume delta (CVD) around the $120,000 mark, reflecting renewed spot buying interest. 

Bitcoin spot and futures activity analysis by Skew. Source: XAt the same time, perpetual futures markets saw bids clustering near the same level, while open interest declined, signaling short positions being closed as prices rebounded.

Together, these factors suggest that the market may be defining a new short-term “value area” around $123,000 over the next few days, with heavier supply overhead above the latter range.

Onchain metrics support this consolidation thesis. Analyst Maartunn observed that short-term holders are nearly evenly split between realizing profits and losses, with 24,100 BTC sent to exchanges at a profit versus 19,700 BTC at a loss, a “near 50/50 split, but leaning green.” 

Bitcoin short-term holder P&L to exchanges. Source: Maartunn/XAdditionally, data from Binance further highlighted the leverage reset that accompanied the recent pullback. Bitcoin open interest on the exchange fell to $13.88 billion from a record $15.07 billion on Oct. 6, a 7.9% decline over three days.

This contraction in leverage typically reflected cautious repositioning rather than a full-scale exit, and may pave the way for a more sustainable advance once fresh capital re-enters the market.

MVRV analysis points to strong Q4 outlookWhile the short-term trend shows consolidation, analysts remain broadly optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory into year-end. Market strategist Timo Oinonen highlighted the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio as a key indicator of potential upside. The MVRV metric compares Bitcoin’s current market capitalization to its realized capitalization, essentially measuring whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to its holders’ cost basis.

According to Oinonen, Bitcoin’s MVRV currently suggests a base scenario where prices could climb 15% to 25% toward $140,000–$150,000 by the end of Q4, supported by long-term holder accumulation and resilient short-term cost bases.

Bitcoin MVRV analysis by Timo Oinonen. Source: CryptoQuantA more bullish scenario, where the MVRV climbs above 4.0, mirroring the 2021 cycle, could drive BTC toward $170,000 to $200,000 amid renewed market euphoria and a possible post-halving supply squeeze.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Original U.Today article

Thu, 9/10/2025 - 15:44

Can decline of Bitcoin (BTC) lead to test of $120,000 range?

Cover image via U.Today

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

The rates of most of the coins are coming back to the red zone, according to CoinStats.

Top coins by CoinStatsBTC/USDUnlike other coins, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 0.23% over the last day.

Image by TradingViewDespite today's growth, the rate of BTC is looking bearish on the hourly chart. If a breakout of the local support happens, the fall is likely to continue to the $120,000 area.

Image by TradingViewOn the longer time frame, buyers have failed to keep the rise going after yesterday's bullish closure. 

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If the daily bar closes around the current prices or below them, sellers may seize the initiative, which may lead to a test of the $118,000-$119,000 range.

Image by TradingViewFrom the midterm point of view, the rate of BTC has marked a false breakout of the $125,725 level. If the weekly bar closes far from that mark, the drop may continue to the $118,000 zone.

Bitcoin is trading at $121,250 at press time.

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How did 115 orphaned children end up on their first bus ride to a zoo to celebrate a real-world Bitcoin transaction 15 years ago? It’s a question I found myself asking in disbelief as I coordinated their entrance at the Uganda Wildlife Education Centre — commonly known as the Entebbe Zoo — on Bitcoin Pizza Day, May 22. The morning sun was warm, and the air buzzed with excitement and laughter. Children who had rarely strayed beyond their rural village in Bugiri, Uganda, were now getting off buses, eyes wide at the expectation of giraffes and elephants. Many of these kids had never even heard of a zoo before, let alone seen one. Yet here they were, grinning ear to ear after breakfast, ready to celebrate a quirky Bitcoin holiday. How on Earth did we get here?

As I watched those 115 children — children from the Orphans of Uganda Children Center — marvel at animals and enjoy their very first pizza party later that afternoon, I felt a swell of emotions in my chest. I saw joy, wonder, and a sense of belonging wash over kids who have known too much hardship in their young lives. For me, this wasn’t just a fun day out. It was the culmination of an incredible journey of hope, community, and innovation. Bitcoin Pizza Day commemorates the first real-world Bitcoin transaction when, back in 2010, Lazlo famously bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC. For most Bitcoiners, it’s a lighthearted celebration. But for us in Uganda this year, Pizza Day became something deeply personal — a day when an internet myth reached into our world and made a real difference. Bitcoin paid for those pizzas the children ate, yes. But it also paid for the buses, the zoo tickets, and the chance for these orphans to leave their district for the first time in their lives. It was, in every sense, the biggest Bitcoin Pizza Day celebration ever seen.

The Road to Bitcoin Pizza Day
Standing in that zoo, I couldn’t help but reflect on the road that led us here. Just months before this event, our team, led by Orphanage Director Isma, achieved something I once thought nearly impossible. Feeding over a hundred children has always been our largest expense here at the orphanage, and for the past years, we’ve been experimenting with a new idea: What if we could do it all with bitcoin? Sat by sat, we were building a small Bitcoin economy around the orphanage. In fact, by consistently honoring our commitments and showing the usefulness of this strange digital money, we even earned the trust of our most important supplier. I’m proud to say that our loyal food supplier, the woman who sells us bulk maize, beans, and other staples, now accepts bitcoin as payment. That was a big win for us. It meant we could buy food for the kids directly with the sats donated by generous Bitcoiners worldwide, without always having to convert to cash. It meant our bitcoin could stay bitcoin from donor to dinner, closing the loop in our little circular economy.

That achievement didn’t happen overnight. It was the result of months of education and relationship-building in our community. We knew that to really help these children long term, we needed more than one-off donations; we needed sustainability. So we set out ambitious goals for ourselves: make the orphanage self-sustaining and integrate bitcoin into daily life in Bugiri.

We brainstormed ideas like starting a poultry farm for eggs to improve the children’s nutrition and generate income, or acquiring sewing machines so the older kids could learn tailoring skills, thanks to Bitcoin Dada ladies in Uganda. Each initiative was aimed at empowering the orphans with tools and knowledge to eventually take care of themselves. And woven through all these plans was Bitcoin, the monetary network that allowed a global community of supporters to be part of our local solutions. We wanted the shopkeepers, market vendors, and school teachers in our town to see the same potential we saw. If more of our neighbors would trade in bitcoin — if they could save it, spend it, and trust it — then the orphanage’s lifeline wouldn’t depend solely on distant donors. It would be rooted in the community, powered by the people and businesses right here at home. Little by little, that’s exactly what is happening. Our Bitcoin Kampala project has doubled down on outreach in the village, showing anyone who listens how to download a Bitcoin wallet, how to make a Lightning payment, and why this technology isn’t just “internet money” but something that can change their lives. One by one, new allies are coming on board. Our food vendor was one; a local clinic that treats our kids became another; the local engineering company joined the freedom train, too. The circle of trust in Bitcoin is widening.

My own trust in Bitcoin had been cemented by one particularly urgent moment. I’ll never forget the day I truly saw the power of this technology again beyond my personal life. One morning not long ago, the orphanage’s food store was empty — we had no food left to cook for the children’s lunch. The usual funding we relied on was delayed, and local stores wouldn’t give us any more on credit. In desperation, Isma and I reached out to a friend in South America. I told him about our situation, and he didn’t hesitate. He sent a $60 bitcoin donation across the world to Isma immediately. Within seconds, the transaction popped up on Isma’s phone — confirmed. He walked into our now Bitcoin food vendor’s shop that very morning, showed the shopkeeper the bitcoin his wallet, and he worked out a quick exchange in order to pay for just enough maize and beans for lunch. By 1:00 p.m., the children were eating a hot meal. There were no banks involved, no remittance offices open (it was a Sunday, after all), no waiting until the next day for funds to clear. Just hungry kids at an orphanage in Uganda and a caring friend in South America connected by this borderless money. That day, bitcoin literally put food on empty plates in the nick of time. I often think back to how miraculous it felt. For the first time, I had a tool that could summon help from anywhere on the planet, just when we needed it the most.

In fact, the very first bitcoin donations I’d ever received personally had gotten me to the biggest Bitcoin conference in Europe within a month; still, this lunch meal paid instantly was way more amazing than anything I’d ever known about Bitcoin. From day one, Bitcoin proved its worth to me not in theory, but in person: Hungry children eat because of it?! After that, I was convinced that this technology was more than just an idea for rich investors or tech enthusiasts. It was a lifeline for the forgotten ones in society — like our kids out in Bugiri, many of whom had been orphaned by disease or tragedy and had nobody but us to care for them. Bitcoin was helping us keep them alive and healthy.

It still amazes me how an unlikely series of events brought us to this point. Truth be told, I never set out deliberately to be part of a “Bitcoin orphanage project” until a Machankura Ugandan representative named Satstacker connected me with the orphanage. A couple of years ago, I was just a Bitcoiner in Kampala, running a little educational meetup under the moniker Gorilla Sats. I was inspired by places like El Zonte in El Salvador (the famous “Bitcoin Beach”) and similar projects in South Africa and Brazil. My goal after attending BTC Prague in 2023 was to spark a Bitcoin circular economy somewhere in Uganda — anywhere. Who knew it would end up being in a rural orphanage? 

Originally, I thought Makerere University students might lead the way — or entrepreneurs. I hosted talks, met fellow enthusiasts, and dreamed big. But fate complemented all the above efforts in the form of a Twitter contact: I learned about this orphanage out in the Bugiri district that was struggling, and Isma, the caretaker, was curious about Bitcoin. These were genuine, honest people doing good work with almost no resources. They had heard that Bitcoin might help them receive donations more easily. So we connected. I taught them what I knew, helped set up a Lightning wallet, taught them self-custody, and shared their story online. What happened next was beyond my expectations. Bitcoiners from around the world — people we’d never met — started sending support. What started as a trickle of sats soon grew into a stream of love and generosity from every corner of the globe. And the orphanage and now school staff, in turn, began to fully embrace this new tool. They learned to secure seed phrases, make payments, and keep records. They became proud members of the Bitcoin community. In the process, 113 children (now 115) inadvertently became some of the youngest participants in a global Bitcoin economy. Not because anyone forced them to, but because it simply worked for them. In a way, these kids accidentally demonstrated what voluntary Bitcoin adoption looks like at its purest. They had a need; Bitcoin filled it. It was as simple as that.

Africa Needs Bitcoin, and Bitcoin Needs Africa
Moments like the zoo trip put into perspective why all of this matters. We often say that Bitcoin solves real problems in Africa — things like costly remittances, lack of banking access, corruption, and currency instability. I have seen that truth with my own eyes. Here in Uganda, if you don’t have a national ID to get access to mobile money or if you live far from a bank branch, the traditional financial system shuts you out. But with nothing more than a feature phone (via Machankura) and an internet connection (if on a smartphone), Bitcoin lets anyone participate in the economy. Donations that would have taken days and hefty fees to arrive via wire transfer now reach us in minutes with pennies in fees. When we need construction works, medical supplies, school fees, or food, Bitcoin is often the fastest and most transparent way to get funds and pay for it. Africa needs Bitcoin because it can leapfrog a lot of the infrastructural challenges that have held us back. It puts power directly in the hands of the people who need it — whether it’s an orphanage in Uganda, refugees in a camp who can’t open bank accounts, or a women’s savings group looking for a way to store their hard-earned savings. It provides an alternative when local currencies collapse or when inflation eats away at savings. It creates the possibility for a more level financial playing field.

But the other side of this story is something I’ve come to believe just as strongly: Bitcoin needs Africa. It needs the energy, the stories, and the real-world use cases that our communities provide — in places like Uganda, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, and beyond, Bitcoin isn’t just an investment toy or a speculative asset — it’s a tool of survival and empowerment. We are stress-testing Bitcoin in the most human ways. We’re finding out how it can feed children, fund education, and build businesses from the ground up. By doing so, we are giving Bitcoin a purpose far greater than price charts and inflation hedges. We’re imbuing it with our values of community and solidarity. A friend of mine, Fernando from the Praia Bitcoin project in Brazil, who has mentored me greatly, told me something that has stuck in my mind. Seeing our work with the orphanage since 2023, he said: 

“This is the most successful usage of Bitcoin so far. It’s starting the peaceful revolution with over 100 forgotten ones.” 

Coming from someone halfway across the world, who’s also fighting to spread Bitcoin for social good, that meant a lot. It reminded me that what we’re doing in this little corner of Uganda is part of a much larger story — a peaceful revolution uniting those whom the old financial system left behind.

Back at the zoo, I felt that revolution in my bones. I saw it in the way the Kampala Bitcoin community members showed up en masse to support these kids — many volunteers traveled hours to be there, paying their own way just to share in this joy. I saw it in how eagerly the children shared pizza slices with our guests, as if to say thank you for being there. At that moment, any barriers between ��rich Bitcoiners,” if there were any in attendance, and “poor orphans” melted away; we were just people together, celebrating hope and possibility. By the end of the day, we had gathered over 160 people to celebrate and I knew this was a story worth telling far beyond our borders. On Twitter, we’ve been documenting our journey from the start, and I’m thrilled to share that a short documentary of this Bitcoin Pizza Day at the zoo is coming. It will capture the smiles, the songs the children sang, their experience on the bus, and the sheer amazement on their faces meeting wildlife for the first time. I invite you to follow Bitcoin Kampala on X (Twitter), on YouTube, and even on Nostr, so you can see when the short film is released and stay updated on our next chapters.

The buses have long since left the zoo, carrying the children back to Bugiri, but the impact of that day still lingers in our hearts. I’m writing this back in Kampala, reflecting on how far we’ve come. It’s hard to believe that a simple idea — using bitcoin to help those in need — would snowball into a community and movement that’s changing lives. I think about the future a lot — about those kids and what opportunities we can create for them as they grow up. There’s so much more to do. We want to build them a Bitcoin school where they can feel safe and loved while acquiring multiple life skills and learning about Bitcoin. We want to expand our little Bitcoin economy so that by the time these children are young adults, they’ll have a thriving local market to participate in, one that understands and accepts the money of the future. We want to show more people across Africa what is possible when Bitcoin meets compassion.

As I wrap up my thoughts, I return to that opening question and realize it isn’t so impossible after all. How did 115 orphaned children end up on a bus to the zoo on Bitcoin Pizza Day? They did it because hundreds of people — from Uganda to South America to Europe and beyond — decided to care. They did it because a decentralized network allowed those caring people to coordinate and contribute instantaneously. They did it because when Bitcoin is guided by heart, it can achieve truly beautiful things. This experience has left me deeply hopeful. If a handful of Bitcoin enthusiasts and a struggling orphanage can join forces to accidentally spark a “peaceful revolution” for over a hundred forgotten children, then what else is possible? The mission we’re on is bigger than bitcoin’s price or any buzzwords; it’s about human dignity and connection.

Bitcoin has given all of us, but especially these children, a chance at a better life. It’s given me a renewed purpose. In turn, these children have given Bitcoin a story that cuts through the noise and gets to its true essence. I believe that story is only just beginning. After all, as we like to say in our Bitcoin in Africa Monthly Twitter Space: Africa needs Bitcoin, and Bitcoin needs Africa.

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This piece is an article featured in the latest Print edition of Bitcoin Magazine, The Lightning Issue. We’re sharing it here to show the ideas explored throughout the full issue.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) now holds a staggering 800,000 Bitcoin (BTC), according to Glassnode data, and has accumulated $98 billion in assets under management in less than two years since its debut in January 2024.

IBIT Breaks 800,000 BTC Barrier
BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, now holds 802,200 BTC in its IBIT ETF, according to Apollo co-founder Thomas Fahrer. The fund had amassed 798,747 BTC as of Oct. 7, per BlackRock’s own iShares website. IBIT’s purchase of 3,510 BTC (worth $426.2 million) yesterday was enough to push its total holdings above the 800K milestone. The market-leading ETF now holds roughly 3.804% of Bitcoin’s total 21 million supply.

IBIT accounts for over 55% of the total BTC held in US spot Bitcoin ETFs, data from Bitbo shows. Additionally, the BlackRock ETF holds more than Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, which boasts a 640,031 BTC stockpile (valued at roughly $78 billion).

The recent Bitcoin milestone comes amid reports that IBIT has become BlackRock’s most profitable ETF, surpassing the revenue of its flagship S&P 500 fund, the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, which debuted in 2000.

IBIT Leads Weekly Inflows
Meanwhile, IBIT has led the charge in weekly inflows among all U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, as pointed out by Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

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“IBIT is #1 in weekly flows among all ETFs with $3.5 billion, which is 10% of all net flows into ETFs,” Balchunas wrote in a Wednesday X post. “Also notable is the rest of the 11 OG spot BTC ETFs all took in cash in the past week, even GBTC, somehow; that’s how hungry the fish are. Two steps forward mode. Enjoy while it lasts.”

On Monday, the dozen BTC ETFs pulled in their biggest daily inflow since crypto-friendly President Donald Trump secured the presidency against Kamala Harris as institutional appetite for crypto exposure continues to build. These funds have now posted cumulative net inflows of $63 billion since their launch, with IBIT taking in $65 billion, offset by net outflows from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

Crypto analyst PlanB has explained why the Bitcoin price may never drop below $100,000 again. This comes as market participants continue to speculate on whether the flagship crypto could fall below this psychological level if a full-blown bear market were to occur. 

Bitcoin Price Has Likely Turned $100,000 Into Support
PlanB stated in an X post that he will not be surprised if the Bitcoin price does not drop below $100,000 again as the market witnesses the $100,000 resistance turn into $100,000 support. The analyst further noted that the September close was the fifth consecutive monthly close above that psychological price level. 

PlanB stated that the same thing happened when the Bitcoin price was trading at $10,000, $1,000, $100, and $10. The analyst’s remarks came as he noted that 63% of people think that Bitcoin will drop below $100,000. Notably, there were more calls for a drop below $100,000 towards the end of September when BTC dropped to as low as $108,000. Crypto influencer Ansem was among those who predicted that the flagship crypto would likely retest $90,000. 

Source: Chart from PlanB on X
However, the Bitcoin price has since staged a remarkable comeback from the $108,000 lows, rallying to a new all-time high (ATH) above $126,000 to start the month. As a result, BTC is already up 7% to start the month, with October notably the flagship crypto’s second-best performing month after November, based on historical data. 

It is worth noting that the Bitcoin price has traded above $100,000 since May 8 and has now been above this psychological level for over 150 days, its longest streak. Meanwhile, market participants are currently betting that it will likely stay this way. According to Polymarket data, there is only a 25% chance that BTC will drop below $100,000 by the end of this year. 

BTC Bull Market Still On
Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto declared that the crypto market is still on and questioned why market participants were in a rush to call the top. The analyst noted that the Stoch Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossovers keep aligning with strength. He added that the chart will tell them when the bull run is over, but for now, that is not the case. 

In another analysis, Titan of Crypto revealed that the Bitcoin price continues to print higher highs and higher lows. Based on this, he raised the possibility that BTC could rally to as high as $160,000 by the end of the year. This aligns with predictions by JPMorgan and Standard Chartered, which predict that BTC can reach $165,000 and $200,000, respectively, by year-end. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $122,000, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

BTC trading at $121,768 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

, /PRNewswire/ -- The Ademi Firm is investigating Akero (NASDAQ: AKRO) for possible breaches of fiduciary duty and other violations of law in its transaction with Novo Nordisk.

Click here to learn how to join our investigation and obtain additional information or contact us at [email protected] or toll-free: 866-264-3995.  There is no cost or obligation to you.

Shareholders of Akero will receive $54.00 per share, representing an equity value of approximately $4.7 billion. Shareholders will also receive a contingent value right entitling them to an additional $6.00 per share if Akero's drug efruxifermin receives full U.S. regulatory approval for treating compensated cirrhosis due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis by June 30, 2031.

Akero insiders will receive substantial benefits as part of change of control arrangements.

The transaction agreement unreasonably limits competing transactions for Akero by imposing a significant penalty if Akero accepts a competing bid. We are investigating the conduct of the Akero board of directors, and whether they are fulfilling their fiduciary duties to all shareholders.

We specialize in shareholder litigation involving buyouts, mergers, and individual shareholder rights. For more information, please feel free to call us. Attorney advertising. Prior results do not guarantee similar outcomes.

Contacts

Ademi & Fruchter LLP
Guri Ademi
Toll Free: (866) 264-3995
Fax: (414) 482-8001

SOURCE Ademi LLP

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C3is Inc.

ATHENS, Greece, Oct. 09, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- C3is Inc. (NASDAQ: CISS) (the “Company”), a ship-owning company providing dry bulk and tanker seaborne transportation services, today announced the closing of its previously announced registered direct offering with institutional investors for the purchase and sale of 800,000 shares of its Common Stock at a public offering price of $2.50, for an aggregate offering price of $2.0 million.

Aggregate gross proceeds to the Company were approximately $2.0 million. The transaction closed on October 9, 2025. The Company expects to use the net proceeds from the offering, together with its existing cash, for general corporate purposes and working capital.

Aegis Capital Corp. acted as exclusive placement agent for the offering. Goodwin Procter LLP acted as U.S. counsel to the Company. Kaufman & Canoles, P.C. acted as U.S. counsel to Aegis Capital Corp.

The registered direct offering was made pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement on Form F-3 (No. 333-285135) previously filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and declared effective by the SEC on March 6, 2025. A final prospectus supplement and accompanying prospectus describing the terms of the proposed offering was filed with the SEC and is available on the SEC’s website located at www.sec.gov. Electronic copies of the final prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus may be obtained by contacting Aegis Capital Corp., Attention: Syndicate Department, 1345 Avenue of the Americas, 27th floor, New York, NY 10105, by email at [email protected], or by telephone at +1 (212) 813-1010.

Interested parties should read in their entirety the prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus and the other documents that the Company has filed with the SEC that are incorporated by reference in such prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus, which provide more information about the Company and such offering.

About C3is Inc.

C3is Inc. is a ship-owning company providing dry bulk and crude oil seaborne transportation services. The Company owns four vessels, three handysize drybulk carriers with a total capacity of 97,664 deadweight tons (dwt) and an Aframax oil tanker with a cargo carrying capacity of approximately 115,800 dwt, resulting with a fleet total capacity of 213,464 dwt. C3is Inc.’s shares of Common Stock are listed on the Nasdaq Capital Market and trade under the symbol “CISS.”

Forward-Looking Statements

The foregoing material may contain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, each as amended. Forward-looking statements include all statements that do not relate solely to historical or current facts, including without limitation statements those related to the intended use of the proceeds, and can be identified by the use of words such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “project,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “believe,” “potential,” “should,” “continue” or the negative versions of those words or other comparable words. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future actions or performance. These forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to the Company and its current plans or expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could significantly affect current plans. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or the underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may differ significantly from those anticipated, believed, estimated, expected, intended, or planned. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, the Company cannot guarantee future results, performance, or achievements. Except as required by applicable law, including the securities laws of the United States, the Company does not intend to update any of the forward-looking statements to conform these statements to actual results.

Company Contact:

Nina Pyndiah
Chief Financial Officer
C3is INC.
00-30-210-6250-001
E-mail: [email protected]

Cass Information Systems (CASS - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.

The earnings report might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis invoice and payment management company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.63 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +200%.

Revenues are expected to be $49.4 million, down 2.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.54% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Cass?For Cass, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #5.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Cass will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Cass would post earnings of $0.72 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.38, delivering a surprise of -47.22%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Cass doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when Bay Commercial Bank (BCML - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The earnings report might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.52 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -3.7%.

Revenues are expected to be $24.8 million, down 3.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Bay Commercial Bank?For Bay Commercial Bank, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +15.39%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Bay Commercial Bank will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Bay Commercial Bank would post earnings of $0.55 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.58, delivering a surprise of +5.45%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Bay Commercial Bank doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when M&T Bank Corporation (MTB - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 16. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $4.38 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +7.4%.

Revenues are expected to be $2.44 billion, up 4.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.18% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for M&T Bank?For M&T Bank, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +0.47%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination indicates that M&T Bank will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that M&T Bank would post earnings of $4.04 per share when it actually produced earnings of $4.28, delivering a surprise of +5.94%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

M&T Bank appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Bank OZK (OZK - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 16. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis bank is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.67 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +7.7%.

Revenues are expected to be $444.07 million, up 5% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.24% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Bank OZK?For Bank OZK, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -1.20%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #2.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Bank OZK will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Bank OZK would post earnings of $1.51 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.58, delivering a surprise of +4.64%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Bank OZK doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Marsh & McLennan (MMC - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 16, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis global professional services firm providing strategy, risk and people solutions is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.79 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +9.8%.

Revenues are expected to be $6.34 billion, up 11.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.06% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Marsh & McLennan?For Marsh & McLennan, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -0.65%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Marsh & McLennan will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Marsh & McLennan would post earnings of $2.66 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.72, delivering a surprise of +2.26%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Marsh & McLennan doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The market expects The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 16. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.22 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +58.4%.

Revenues are expected to be $5.9 billion, up 21.8% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.2% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Charles Schwab?For Charles Schwab, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +2.26%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination indicates that Charles Schwab will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Charles Schwab would post earnings of $1.09 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.14, delivering a surprise of +4.59%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Charles Schwab appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Expected Results of an Industry PlayerBank of America (BAC - Free Report) , another stock in the Zacks Financial - Investment Bank industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $0.94 for the quarter ended September 2025. This estimate points to a year-over-year change of +16.1%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $27.12 billion, up 7% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus EPS estimate for Bank of America has been revised 0.1% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +1%.

When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP indicates that Bank of America will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The market expects Citizens & Northern (CZNC - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis bank is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.51 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +24.4%.

Revenues are expected to be $28.9 million, up 5.1% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 47.17% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Citizens & Northern?For Citizens & Northern, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -3.92%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Citizens & Northern will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Citizens & Northern would post earnings of $0.47 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.40, delivering a surprise of -14.89%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Citizens & Northern doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 16, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.75 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +15.1%.

Revenues are expected to be $4.95 billion, up 6.5% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.27% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for The Bank of New York Mellon?For The Bank of New York Mellon, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +1.07%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination indicates that The Bank of New York Mellon will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that The Bank of New York Mellon would post earnings of $1.74 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.94, delivering a surprise of +11.49%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

The Bank of New York Mellon appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

An Industry Player's Expected ResultsAmong the stocks in the Zacks Banks - Major Regional industry, The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $1.75 per share for the quarter ended September 2025. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +15.1%. This quarter's revenue is expected to be $4.95 billion, up 6.5% from the year-ago quarter.

Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for The Bank of New York Mellon has been revised 0.3% up to the current level. Nevertheless, the company now has an Earnings ESP of +1.07%, reflecting a higher Most Accurate Estimate.

When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP indicates that The Bank of New York Mellon will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The market expects Commerce Bancshares (CBSH - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 16. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis bank holding company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.09 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +1.9%.

Revenues are expected to be $436.9 million, up 3.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.93% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Commerce?For Commerce, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -0.79%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Commerce will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Commerce would post earnings of $1.02 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.14, delivering a surprise of +11.76%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Commerce doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.