Market Signal Briefing

Apple's Thursday earnings report is critical for investors because it includes the first official sales figures for the iPhone 17.

The report covers sales through the end of September, which includes a little more than a weeks worth of sales data for the latest Apple smartphones that went on sale Sept. 19. In recent weeks, Wall Street has been boosting Apple stock because it looks like the iPhone 17 is a hit based on early industry estimates.

But investors will be watching closely about what Apple says regarding demand to see if this year ends up being a "super-cycle," or the first year of growth after iPhone revenue peaked in fiscal 2022. Analysts polled by FactSet expect that Apple surpassed that high mark in fiscal 2025.

Third-party estimates from analysts and industry researchers have signaled that iPhone sales are up this cycle, especially for the entry-level iPhone 17, which got the fastest chip and a screen with a faster refresh rate, and the iPhone 17 Pro models, which have a full aluminum frame and improved battery life.

But the newest iPhone model, the iPhone Air, doesn't appear to be selling well so far.

"Some reports have highlighted a more muted iPhone 17 Air uptick than we believe some had initially anticipated," Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers wrote this month.

It's a familiar story for Apple, which sees the strongest growth when it introduces new iPhone models that expand the lineup. But since it went to a four-phone lineup in 2020, Apple has struggled with the fourth phone's sales, which have lagged behind the basic iPhone and the Pro models. Since 2020, Apple swapped out the "Mini" iPhone for a "Plus" iPhone with a bigger screen, and now, it's trying the "Air."

While Apple doesn't separate sales numbers for individual devices, CEO Tim Cook and CFO Kevan Parekh often provide some color during earnings calls about product launches during the quarter and how much demand the company is seeing.

When Apple launched the $999 iPhone Air in September, Tim Cook called it an "iPhone that feels like a piece of the future." Price-wise, it lands between the iPhone 17, starting at $799, and the iPhone 17 Pro, which starts at $1,099.

The iPhone Air is thinner and lighter than Apple's other phones, but that also comes with compromises. It only has one camera lens, and its battery life is shorter than its siblings. Still, it's the only iPhone this year with a significant design change, and reviews have been positive.

China sales could also boost the model. It didn't go on sale in China until earlier this month, and it sold out in minutes, according to the South China Morning Post.

Still, buyers appear to prefer what they're already familiar with.

Nikkei, a newspaper in Japan, reported last week that Apple "drastically" slashed iPhone Air component orders with its partners, but is boosting orders for its other phones.

Ming-Chi Kuo, a TF International Securities supply chain analyst known for forecasting future Apple moves, followed that report by saying that the iPhone Air had fallen short of expectations.

"This indicates that the existing Pro series and standard models already cover the majority of high-end user demand well, leaving little room to carve out new market segments and positioning," Kuo posted on social media.

In many ways, the iPhone Air underperforming is not a sea change for the company.

Since 2020, Apple has released four new phones in the fall. But one of the four new models has consistently lagged its siblings in sales, and Apple has swapped the model out over the years to find something that works.

Before the Air, it was the iPhone "Plus," in the middle of the lineup with the same specs as the main iPhone but with a larger screen. It was priced at $899. Apple tried that from 2022 through 2024.

Goldman Sachs analysts said that lead times, or how long Apple says it will take to ship a device on its website, suggested that the iPhone Air had similar demand to its predecessors.

"Lead times for the iPhone Air were initially below the iPhone 16 Plus, but have now surpassed those of the iPhone 16 Plus and are just below those of the iPhone 15 Plus," wrote Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng in a note this month.

Before that, Apple's fourth phone was the iPhone Mini, which cost less than the main iPhone when it was introduced in 2020, but consumers didn't flock to its smaller screen.

Analysts say that the iPhone Air could be a building block towards a more diverse lineup that could include a folding iPhone. Its thin design resembles what half of a folding phone could look like, tech critics say. And the fact that the iPhone Air doesn't have a number suggests it might not get annual updates anyway.

If Apple's other iPhones are seeing surging sales, it might not matter to investors if the Air is lagging, especially if new designs at least keep the lineup feeling fresh.

"We believe Apple has the ability to maintain the relevance of smartphones through form factor updates to iPhone," wrote Ng, the Goldman analyst. "For example, after the debut of the thinner iPhone Air form factor this year, Apple is expected to launch its first foldable iPhone in 2026, followed by an all-screen display iPhone in 2027."

Apple didn't respond to a request for comment.

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New integration unifies stakeholder and advocacy insights to help government affairs teams influence policy with greater precision and speed

WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--FiscalNote Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: NOTE), the leading provider of AI-driven policy and regulatory intelligence solutions, today announced the introduction of data from VoterVoice, its dedicated grassroots advocacy platform, into PolicyNote, its flagship policy monitoring platform, giving policy professionals a powerful, unified view of influence across both grasstops and grassroots efforts.

FiscalNote’s VoterVoice, the most trusted and secure advocacy tool on the market, helps more than 2,000 organizations influence the policy that matters by connecting directly with lawmakers and advocates. The new integration with PolicyNote brings in grassroots advocacy data from VoterVoice so users can now see the full picture of their work, all in one place. With campaign activity right alongside existing client stakeholder management records, clients can now see who they’re engaging with and how communities are taking grassroots action right alongside their grasstops efforts.

“Policy professionals are judged on results across multiple channels,” said Josh Resnik, CEO & President of FiscalNote. “By integrating grassroots campaign activity directly into PolicyNote, we’re providing a more holistic view of their full influence, from stakeholder engagement to community mobilization. It’s a powerful expansion of our PolicyNote platform, helping to drive real outcomes for our customers in a chaotic and complex policy environment.”

PolicyNote brings together all the data that shows how an organization builds and exerts influence — making it easier to see the full picture of its policy impact. By expanding to include advocacy data, PolicyNote gives users a holistic view that spans from grasstops to grassroots engagement and action.

With this initial integration, PolicyNote users can now view:

Stakeholder Context: See constituent and campaign data from VoterVoice directly within a stakeholder’s record

District-Level Insights: Instantly view advocate and contact counts by legislative district

Campaign Activity: Track recent outreach, including emails, calls, tweets, and letters, tied to each stakeholder

For example, before meeting with a legislator, a user can quickly see both their direct engagements and grassroots actions from that legislator’s district — creating a complete view of outreach and influence.

The new grassroots data integration is now live for all clients of PolicyNote and VoterVoice.

To learn more or to see how the PolicyNote and VoterVoice integration can support your team, request a demo: fiscalnote.com/policynote

About FiscalNote

FiscalNote (NYSE: NOTE) is the leading provider of AI-driven policy and regulatory intelligence solutions. By uniquely combining proprietary AI technology, comprehensive data, and decades of trusted analysis, FiscalNote helps customers efficiently manage political and business risk. Since 2013, FiscalNote has pioneered solutions that deliver critical insights, enabling effective decision-making and giving organizations the competitive edge they need. Home to PolicyNote, CQ, Roll Call, VoterVoice, and many other industry-leading products and brands, FiscalNote serves thousands of customers worldwide with global offices in North America, Europe, and Asia. To learn more about FiscalNote and its suite of solutions, visit fiscalnote.com and follow @FiscalNote.

CHARLOTTE, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Hayward Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: HAYW) (“Hayward” or the “Company”), a global designer, manufacturer and marketer of a broad portfolio of pool and outdoor living technology, today announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 27, 2025 of its fiscal year 2025. Comparisons are to financial results for the prior-year third fiscal quarter.

CEO COMMENTS

“I am pleased to report third quarter results ahead of expectations, marking another quarter of strong execution by our global team”, said Kevin Holleran, Hayward’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “Our performance reflects the resiliency of our aftermarket model and continued traction in our strategic initiatives. Net sales increased 7% year-over-year with growth across both the North America and Europe and Rest of World segments. We delivered further solid margin expansion, driven by increased operational efficiencies, tariff mitigation actions, and disciplined cost management. Cash flow generation was robust, enabling us to further strengthen the balance sheet and reduce net leverage to 1.8x, the lowest level in over three years. As a result of our strong year-to-date performance and solid participation in our early buy programs, we are increasing our full year guidance. We remain focused on profitable growth and long-term shareholder value creation, and our investments in innovation, customer experience, and operational excellence are driving positive results.”

THIRD QUARTER FISCAL 2025 CONSOLIDATED RESULTS

Net sales increased by 7% to $244.3 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. The increase in net sales during the quarter was driven by positive net price to offset inflation and tariffs, increased volume, and the favorable impact from foreign currency translation. The increase in volume was driven by the favorable timing of orders in the 2025 season.

Gross profit increased by 11% to $125.1 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Gross profit margin increased 150 basis points to 51.2%. The increase in gross profit margin was due to positive net price impact, the absence of a non-cash increase to cost of goods sold resulting from the fair value inventory step-up adjustment recognized as part of the purchase accounting for the acquisition of ChlorKing HoldCo, LLC and related entities ("ChlorKing") recorded in the prior-year period, and operational efficiencies in our manufacturing facilities, partially offset by an increase in costs driven by tariffs and inflation.

Selling, general, and administrative expense (“SG&A”) increased by 8% to $69.8 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. The increase in SG&A was primarily due to higher incentive compensation and higher salary costs driven by investments in our selling and customer care teams and wage inflation, and a non-recurring litigation expense, partially offset by decreased warranty costs. As a percentage of net sales, SG&A increased 30 basis points to 28.6%, compared to the prior-year period of 28.3%, driven by the factors discussed above. Research, development, and engineering expenses were $7.1 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, or 2.9% of net sales, as compared to $6.4 million for the prior-year period, or 2.8% of net sales.

Operating income increased by 23% to $41.1 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, due to the aggregated effects of the items described above. Operating income as a percentage of net sales (“operating margin”) was 16.8% for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, a 210 basis point increase from the 14.7% operating margin in the prior-year period.

Interest expense, net, decreased by 14% to $11.3 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 driven by lower interest rates on the first lien term loan facility and increased interest income on cash deposits.

Income tax expense for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 was $7.2 million, resulting in an effective tax rate of 23.0%, compared to an income tax expense of $4.4 million, for an effective tax rate of 21.1%, for the prior-year period. The change in the effective tax rate was primarily due to a decrease in tax benefit from stock compensation.

Net income increased by 46% to $24.0 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Net income margin expanded 250 basis points to 9.8%.

Adjusted EBITDA* increased by 16% to $59.1 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 from $51.1 million in the prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA margin* expanded 170 basis points to 24.2%.

Diluted EPS increased by 57% to $0.11 for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Adjusted diluted EPS* increased by 27.3% to $0.14 for the third quarter of fiscal 2025.

THIRD QUARTER FISCAL 2025 SEGMENT RESULTS

North America

Net sales increased by 7% to $208.2 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. The increase was driven by positive net price to offset inflation and tariffs and a modest increase in volume.

Segment income increased by 7% to $55.4 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Adjusted segment income* increased by 4% to $61.7 million.

Europe & Rest of World

Net sales increased by 11% to $36.1 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. The increase was primarily due to the rise in volume and the favorable impact of foreign currency translation, partially offset by the impact of a decrease in net price. The increase in volume was driven by shipment timing under the early buy program.

Segment income increased by 152% to $6.2 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Adjusted segment income* increased by 144% to $6.7 million.

BALANCE SHEET AND CASH FLOW

As of September 27, 2025, Hayward had cash and cash equivalents of $428.7 million, short-term investments of $19.7 million and approximately $104.1 million available for future borrowings under its revolving credit facilities. Cash flow provided by operations for the nine months ended September 27, 2025 of $283.0 million was an increase of $7.2 million from the prior-year period. The increase in cash provided was primarily driven by an increase in net income, partially offset by less cash generated by changes in working capital compared to the prior-year period.

OUTLOOK

Hayward is increasing its full year 2025 guidance. For fiscal year 2025, Hayward now expects net sales of $1.095 billion to $1.110 billion, or an increase of approximately 4% to 5.5% from fiscal year 2024, compared to our prior guidance of $1.070 billion to $1.100 billion. We now expect Adjusted EBITDA* of $292 million to $297 million, or an increase of approximately 5% to 7% from fiscal year 2024, compared to our prior guidance of $280 million to $290 million.

Hayward is excited about the long-term dynamics of the pool industry. The installed base of pools increases every year, providing continued growth opportunities, and the Company benefits from favorable secular demand trends in outdoor living, sunbelt migration, and technology adoption. Hayward continues to leverage its competitive advantages and drive increasing adoption of its leading SmartPad™ pool equipment products both in new construction and the aftermarket, which represents approximately 85% of net sales. Hayward is confident in its long-term outlook for profitable growth and robust cash flow generation, driven by its technology leadership, operational excellence, strong brand and installed base, and multi-channel capabilities.

Please see the Forward-Looking Statements section of this release for a discussion of certain risks relevant to Hayward’s outlook.

CONFERENCE CALL INFORMATION

Hayward will hold a conference call to discuss the results today, October 29, 2025 at 9:00 a.m. (ET).

Interested investors and other parties can listen to a webcast of the live conference call by logging onto the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website at https://investor.hayward.com/events-and-presentations/default.aspx. An earnings presentation will be posted to the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website prior to the conference call.

The conference call can also be accessed by dialing (877) 423-9813 or (201) 689-8573.

For those unable to listen to the live conference call, a replay will be available approximately three hours after the call through the archived webcast on the Hayward website or by dialing (844) 512-2921 or (412) 317-6671. The access code for the replay is 13756418. The replay will be available until 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on November 12, 2025.

ABOUT HAYWARD HOLDINGS, INC.

Hayward Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: HAYW) is a leading global designer and manufacturer of pool and outdoor living technology. With a mission to deliver exceptional products, outstanding service and innovative solutions to transform the experience of water, Hayward offers a full line of energy-efficient and sustainable residential and commercial pool equipment including pumps, heaters, sanitizers, filters, LED lighting, water features, and cleaners all digitally connected through Hayward’s intuitive IoT-enabled SmartPad™.

SPECIAL NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

This press release contains certain statements that are “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the “Act”) and releases issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). Such forward-looking statements relating to Hayward are based on the beliefs of Hayward’s management as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to it. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements about Hayward’s strategies, plans, objectives, expectations, intentions, expenditures and assumptions and other statements contained in or incorporated by reference in this earnings release that are not historical facts. When used in this document, words such as “guidance,” “outlook,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “intend,” “potential,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “plan,” “target,” “predict,” “project,” “seek” and similar expressions as they relate to Hayward are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Hayward believes that it is important to communicate its future expectations to its stockholders, and it therefore makes forward-looking statements in reliance upon the safe harbor provisions of the Act. However, there may be events in the future that Hayward is not able to accurately predict or control, and actual results may differ materially from the expectations it describes in its forward-looking statements.

Examples of forward-looking statements include, among others, statements Hayward makes regarding: Hayward’s 2025 guidance and outlook; business plans and objectives; general economic and industry trends; business prospects; future product development and acquisition strategies; future channel stocking levels; growth and expansion opportunities; operating results; and working capital and liquidity. The forward-looking statements in this earnings release are only predictions. Hayward may not achieve the plans, intentions or expectations disclosed in Hayward’s forward-looking statements, and you should not place significant reliance on its forward-looking statements. Hayward has based these forward-looking statements largely on its current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends that it believes may affect its business, financial condition and results of operations. Moreover, neither Hayward nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of forward-looking statements taken from third-party industry and market reports.

Important factors that could affect Hayward’s future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those indicated in its forward-looking statements include the following: its relationships with and the performance of distributors, builders, buying groups, retailers and servicers who sell Hayward’s products to pool owners; the impact of changes in laws, regulations and administrative policy, including those that limit U.S. tax benefits, impact trade agreements, or address the impacts of climate change; impacts on Hayward’s business from the sensitivity of its business to seasonality and unfavorable economic business conditions; Hayward's ability to develop, manufacture and effectively and profitably market and sell its new planned and future products; the impact of product manufacturing disruptions, including as a result of catastrophic and other events beyond Hayward's control; competition from national and global companies, as well as lower-cost manufacturers; the imposition, or threat of imposition, of tariffs and other trade restrictions could adversely affect Hayward’s business, including as a result of an adverse impact on general economic conditions; its ability to execute on its growth strategies and expansion opportunities; Hayward’s exposure to credit risk on its accounts receivable, impacts on Hayward’s business from political, regulatory, economic, trade, and other risks associated with operating international businesses, including risks associated with geopolitical conflict; its ability to maintain favorable relationships with suppliers and manage disruptions to its global supply chain and the availability of raw materials; Hayward’s ability to identify emerging technological and other trends in its target end markets; failure of markets to accept new product introductions and enhancements; the ability to successfully identify, finance, complete and integrate acquisitions; its reliance on information technology systems and susceptibility to threats to those systems, including cybersecurity threats, and risks arising from its collection and use of personal information data; its use of artificial intelligence technologies may not be successful and may present business, intellectual property, compliance and reputational risks; misuse of its technology-enabled products could lead to reduced sales, liability claims or harm to its reputation; regulatory changes and developments affecting Hayward’s current and future products; volatility in currency exchange rates and interest rates; Hayward’s ability to service its existing indebtedness and obtain additional capital to finance operations and its growth opportunities; Hayward’s ability to establish, maintain and effectively enforce intellectual property protection for its products, as well as its ability to operate its business without infringing, misappropriating or otherwise violating the intellectual property rights of others; the impact of material cost and other inflation, including as a result of new or increased tariffs; Hayward’s ability to attract and retain senior management and other qualified personnel; the outcome of litigation and governmental proceedings; uncertainties related to distribution channel inventory practices and its impact on Hayward’s net sales volumes; Hayward’s ability to realize cost savings from restructuring activities and other factors set forth in “Risk Factors” in Hayward’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.

Many of these factors are macroeconomic in nature and are, therefore, beyond Hayward’s control. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, Hayward’s actual results, performance or achievements may vary materially from those described in this earnings release as anticipated, believed, estimated, expected, intended, planned or projected. The forward-looking statements included in this earnings release are made only as of the date of this earnings release. Unless required by United States federal securities laws, Hayward neither intends nor assumes any obligation to update these forward-looking statements for any reason after the date of this earnings release to conform these statements to actual results or to changes in Hayward’s expectations.

*NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES

This earnings release includes certain financial measures not presented in accordance with the generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (“GAAP”) including adjusted net income, adjusted basic EPS, adjusted diluted EPS, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted segment income and adjusted segment income margin. These financial measures are not measures of financial performance in accordance with GAAP and may exclude items that are significant in understanding and assessing the Company’s financial results. Hayward believes these non-GAAP measures provide analysts, investors and other interested parties with additional insight into the underlying trends of its business and assist these parties in analyzing the Company’s performance across reporting periods on a consistent basis by excluding items that it does not believe are indicative of its core operating performance, which allows for a better comparison against historical results and expectations for future performance. Management uses these non-GAAP measures to understand and compare operating results across reporting periods for various purposes including internal budgeting and forecasting, short and long-term operating planning, employee incentive compensation, and debt compliance. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative to net income, segment income or other measures of profitability, performance or financial condition under GAAP. You should be aware that the Company’s presentation of these measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies, which may be defined and calculated differently. See the appendix for a reconciliation of historical non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

Reconciliation of full fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook to the comparable GAAP measure is not being provided, as Hayward does not currently have sufficient data to accurately estimate the variables and individual adjustments for such reconciliation. Adjusted EBITDA outlook for full year 2025 is calculated in a manner consistent with the historical presentation of this measure, as shown in the appendix.

Hayward Holdings, Inc.

Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets

(In thousands)

September 27, 2025

December 31, 2024

Assets

Current assets

Cash and cash equivalents

$

428,684

$

196,589

Short-term investments

19,650

—

Accounts receivable, net of allowances of $1,923 and $2,701, respectively

116,053

278,582

Inventories, net

229,887

216,472

Prepaid expenses

18,394

20,203

Income tax receivable

2,548

6,426

Other current assets

20,569

48,697

Total current assets

835,785

766,969

Property, plant, and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation of $121,814 and $112,099, respectively

158,234

160,377

Goodwill

949,952

943,645

Trademark

736,000

736,000

Customer relationships, net

183,296

198,333

Other intangibles, net

88,274

96,095

Other non-current assets

84,079

89,205

Total assets

$

3,035,620

$

2,990,624

Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity

Current liabilities

Current portion of long-term debt

$

13,413

$

13,991

Accounts payable

68,766

81,476

Accrued expenses and other liabilities

180,286

217,242

Income taxes payable

—

273

Total current liabilities

262,465

312,982

Long-term debt, net

947,744

950,562

Deferred tax liabilities, net

238,893

239,111

Other non-current liabilities

63,732

64,322

Total liabilities

1,512,834

1,566,977

Stockholders’ equity

Preferred stock, $0.001 par value, 100,000,000 authorized, no shares issued or outstanding as of September 27, 2025 and December 31, 2024

—

—

Common stock $0.001 par value, 750,000,000 authorized; 245,717,477 issued and 217,051,108 outstanding at September 27, 2025; 244,444,889 issued and 215,778,520 outstanding at December 31, 2024

246

245

Additional paid-in capital

1,105,018

1,093,468

Common stock in treasury; 28,666,369 and 28,666,369 at September 27, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively

(359,274

)

(358,133

)

Retained earnings

782,724

699,564

Accumulated other comprehensive income

(5,928

)

(11,497

)

Total stockholders’ equity

1,522,786

1,423,647

Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity

$

3,035,620

$

2,990,624

Hayward Holdings, Inc.

Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations

(Dollars in thousands, except per share data)

Three Months Ended

Nine Months Ended

September 27, 2025

September 28, 2024

September 27, 2025

September 28, 2024

Net sales

$

244,336

$

227,569

$

772,780

$

724,531

Cost of sales

119,200

114,474

376,430

361,770

Gross profit

125,136

113,095

396,350

362,761

Selling, general and administrative expense

69,803

64,509

206,813

187,678

Research, development and engineering expense

7,122

6,449

19,236

18,870

Acquisition and restructuring related expense

276

1,145

3,767

2,488

Amortization of intangible assets

6,882

7,576

20,587

21,425

Operating income

41,053

33,416

145,947

132,300

Interest expense, net

11,316

13,209

38,617

48,600

Loss on debt extinguishment

—

—

—

4,926

Other expense (income), net

(1,469

)

(705

)

(1,996

)

(1,989

)

Total other expense

9,847

12,504

36,621

51,537

Income from operations before income taxes

31,206

20,912

109,326

80,763

Provision for income taxes

7,178

4,411

26,166

16,841

Net income

$

24,028

$

16,501

$

83,160

$

63,922

Earnings per share

Basic

$

0.11

$

0.08

$

0.38

$

0.30

Diluted

$

0.11

$

0.07

$

0.37

$

0.29

Weighted average common shares outstanding

Basic

216,826,626

215,231,886

216,395,032

214,836,643

Diluted

222,420,881

221,436,206

222,074,267

221,251,355

Hayward Holdings, Inc.

Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows

(In thousands)

Nine Months Ended

September 27, 2025

September 28, 2024

Cash flows from operating activities

Net income

$

83,160

$

63,922

Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash used in operating activities

Depreciation

17,026

13,929

Amortization of intangible assets

25,808

26,299

Amortization of deferred debt issuance fees

2,818

3,248

Stock-based compensation

9,821

7,299

Deferred income taxes (benefit)

1,949

(8,344

)

Allowance for credit losses

(1,021

)

(62

)

Loss on debt extinguishment

—

4,926

(Gain) loss on sale of property, plant and equipment

381

(451

)

Changes in operating assets and liabilities

Accounts receivable

168,754

173,400

Inventories

(8,064

)

(4,204

)

Other current and non-current assets

29,913

(6,203

)

Accounts payable

(14,002

)

2,871

Accrued expenses and other liabilities

(33,566

)

(868

)

Net cash provided by operating activities

282,977

275,762

Cash flows from investing activities

Purchases of property, plant, and equipment

(19,822

)

(16,153

)

Software development costs

(1,579

)

(1,399

)

Acquisitions, net of cash acquired

—

(61,636

)

Proceeds from sale of property, plant, and equipment

—

311

Purchases of short-term investments

(19,650

)

—

Proceeds from short-term investments

—

25,000

Net cash used in investing activities

(41,051

)

(53,877

)

Cash flows from financing activities

Proceeds from issuance of long-term debt

—

2,886

Payments of long-term debt

(6,941

)

(129,971

)

Proceeds from issuance of short-term notes payable

—

6,340

Payments of short-term notes payable

(2,169

)

(4,676

)

Debt issuance costs

(1,388

)

—

Purchase of common stock

(1,141

)

—

Other, net

719

(427

)

Net cash used in financing activities

(10,920

)

(125,848

)

Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents

1,089

50

Change in cash and cash equivalents

232,095

96,087

Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of period

196,589

178,097

Cash and cash equivalents, end of period

$

428,684

$

274,184

Supplemental disclosures of cash flow information:

Cash paid-interest

$

39,892

$

47,965

Cash paid-income taxes

20,587

26,853

Non-cash investing and financing activities:

Accrued and unpaid purchases of property, plant, and equipment

1,064

1,862

Equipment financed under finance leases

1,866

843

Reconciliations

Consolidated Reconciliations

Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin Reconciliations (Non-GAAP)

Following is a reconciliation from net income to adjusted EBITDA:

(Dollars in thousands)

Three Months Ended

Nine Months Ended

September 27, 2025

September 28, 2024

September 27, 2025

September 28, 2024

Net income

$

24,028

$

16,501

$

83,160

$

63,922

Depreciation

5,509

4,862

17,026

13,929

Amortization

8,642

9,253

25,808

26,299

Interest expense, net

11,316

13,209

38,617

48,600

Income taxes

7,178

4,411

26,166

16,841

Loss on debt extinguishment

—

—

—

4,926

EBITDA

56,673

48,236

190,777

174,517

Stock-based compensation (a)

—

136

57

556

Currency exchange items (b)

(536

)

(344

)

236

(470

)

Acquisition and restructuring related expense, net (c)

276

1,145

3,767

2,488

Other (d)

2,653

1,920

1,567

1,657

Total Adjustments

2,393

2,857

5,627

4,231

Adjusted EBITDA

$

59,066

$

51,093

$

196,404

$

178,748

Net income margin

9.8

%

7.3

%

10.8

%

8.8

%

Adjusted EBITDA margin

24.2

%

22.5

%

25.4

%

24.7

%

(a)

Represents non-cash stock-based compensation expense related to equity awards issued to management, employees, and directors. The adjustment includes only expense related to awards issued under the 2017 Equity Incentive Plan, which were awards granted prior to the effective date of Hayward’s initial public offering (the “IPO”).

(b)

Represents unrealized non-cash (gains) losses on foreign denominated monetary assets and liabilities and foreign currency contracts.

(c)

Adjustments in the three months ended September 27, 2025 are primarily driven by $0.3 million of costs related to restructuring actions in E&RW. Adjustments in the three months ended September 28, 2024 are primarily driven by $0.7 million of transaction and integration costs associated with the acquisition of the ChlorKing business and $0.4 million of costs to finalize actions initiated in prior years.

Adjustments in the nine months ended September 27, 2025 are primarily driven by $3.3 million of transaction and integration costs associated with the acquisition of the ChlorKing business, $0.5 million of costs related to restructuring actions in E&RW and $0.2 million of separation costs for the consolidation of operations in North America, partially offset by a reduction in expense of $0.2 million to finalize the relocation of the Company's corporate office functions to Charlotte, North Carolina from Berkeley Heights, New Jersey. Adjustments in the nine months ended September 28, 2024 are primarily driven by $1.3 million of transaction and integration costs associated with the acquisition of ChlorKing, $0.7 million of separation and other costs associated with the centralization and consolidation of operations in Europe and $0.4 million of costs to finalize actions initiated in prior years.

(d)

Adjustments in the three months ended September 27, 2025 primarily include a $2.8 million non-recurring litigation expense. Expense beyond the $2.8 million will be paid by the Company's insurance carriers pursuant to the Company's retention amount with its insurance carriers. Other adjustments include $0.2 million of income from insurance proceeds related to flood damage associated with a hurricane at a contract manufacturing facility. Adjustments in the three months ended September 28, 2024 are primarily driven by a $1.6 million non-cash increase in cost of goods sold resulting from the fair value inventory step-up adjustment recognized as part of the purchase accounting for the acquisition of the ChlorKing business and $0.3 million of costs incurred related to litigation.

Adjustments in the nine months ended September 27, 2025 primarily include a $2.8 million non-recurring litigation expense. Expense beyond the $2.8 million will be paid by the Company's insurance carriers pursuant to the Company's retention amount with its insurance carriers. Other adjustments include $1.3 million of income from insurance proceeds related to flood damage associated with a hurricane at a contract manufacturing facility. Adjustments in the nine months ended September 28, 2024 are primarily driven by a $1.6 million non-cash increase in cost of goods sold resulting from the fair value inventory step-up adjustment recognized as part of the purchase accounting for the acquisition of the ChlorKing business and $0.5 million of costs incurred related to litigation, partially offset by $0.5 million of gains on the sale of assets.

Following is a reconciliation from net income to adjusted EBITDA for the last twelve months:

(Dollars in thousands)

Last Twelve Months(e)

Fiscal Year

September 27, 2025

December 31, 2024

Net income

$

137,893

$

118,655

Depreciation

23,175

20,078

Amortization

35,292

35,783

Interest expense, net

52,180

62,163

Income taxes

34,852

25,527

Loss on debt extinguishment

—

4,926

EBITDA

283,392

267,132

Stock-based compensation (a)

109

608

Currency exchange items (b)

(130

)

(836

)

Acquisition and restructuring related expense, net (c)

7,743

6,464

Other (d)

3,989

4,079

Total Adjustments

11,711

10,315

Adjusted EBITDA

$

295,103

$

277,447

Net income margin

12.5

%

11.3

%

Adjusted EBITDA margin

26.8

%

26.4

%

(a)

Represents non-cash stock-based compensation expense related to equity awards issued to management, employees, and directors. The adjustment includes only expense related to awards issued under the 2017 Equity Incentive Plan, which were awards granted prior to the effective date of the IPO.

(b)

Represents unrealized non-cash (gains) losses on foreign denominated monetary assets and liabilities and foreign currency contracts.

(c)

Adjustments in the last twelve months ended September 27, 2025 primarily include $6.3 million of compensation expenses for the retention of key employees acquired in the ChlorKing acquisition. Pursuant to the ChlorKing acquisition agreement, this $6.3 million was an employee retention payment that was deposited into an escrow account on the date of acquisition. The full amount held in escrow was to be released to the specified key employees if such employees are employed by Hayward on the one-year anniversary of the acquisition. These payments were contingent on continued employment and are not dependent on the achievement of any metric or performance measure. The retention costs were recognized over the twelve-month period from the date of acquisition. Further, other adjustments include $1.1 million of termination benefits related to a reduction-in-force within E&RW, $0.3 million of facility and other costs related to a restructuring action within E&RW and $0.2 million of separation costs associated with the consolidation of operations in North America, partially offset by a reduction in expense of $0.2 million to finalize the relocation of the Company's corporate headquarters to Charlotte, North Carolina.

Adjustments in the year ended December 31, 2024 are primarily driven by $3.2 million of compensation expenses for the retention of key employees acquired in the ChlorKing acquisition. Pursuant to the ChlorKing acquisition agreement, this $3.2 million was part of a total $6.3 million employee retention payment that was deposited into an escrow account on the date of acquisition. The full amount held in escrow will be released to the specified key employees if such employees are employed by Hayward on the one-year anniversary of the acquisition. These payments are contingent on continued employment and are not dependent on the achievement of any metric or performance measure. The retention costs will be recognized over the twelve-month period from the date of acquisition. Further, other adjustments for the year ended December 31, 2024 include $1.1 million of transaction and integration costs associated with the acquisition of the ChlorKing business, $0.9 million of termination benefits related to a reduction-in-force within E&RW, $0.8 million of separation and other costs associated with the centralization and consolidation of operations in Europe and $0.4 million of costs to finalize restructuring actions initiated in prior years.

(d)

Adjustments in the last twelve months ended September 27, 2025 are primarily driven by a $2.8 million non-recurring litigation expense, a $1.6 million increase in cost of goods sold resulting from the fair value inventory step-up adjustment recognized as part of the purchase accounting for the acquisition of the ChlorKing business partially offset by $0.6 million of net insurance settlement proceeds which reflects costs incurred of $0.7 million offset by $1.3 million of insurance proceeds related to flood damage associated with a hurricane at a contract manufacturing facility.

Adjustments in the year ended December 31, 2024 are primarily driven by a $3.3 million increase in cost of goods sold resulting from the fair value inventory step-up adjustment recognized as part of the purchase accounting for the acquisition of the ChlorKing business, $0.7 million of costs sustained from flood damage associated with a hurricane at a contract manufacturing facility and $0.5 million of costs incurred related to litigation, partially offset by $0.5 million of gains on the sale of assets.

(e)

Items for the last twelve months ended September 27, 2025 are calculated by adding the items for the nine months ended September 27, 2025 plus fiscal year ended December 31, 2024 and subtracting the items for the nine months ended September 28, 2024.

Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted EPS Reconciliation (Non-GAAP)

Following is a reconciliation of net income to adjusted net income and earnings per share to adjusted earnings per share:

(Dollars in thousands, except per share data)

Three Months Ended

Nine Months Ended

September 27, 2025

September 28, 2024

September 27, 2025

September 28, 2024

Net income

$

24,028

$

16,501

$

83,160

$

63,922

Tax adjustments (a)

(481

)

(451

)

(673

)

(2,203

)

Other adjustments and amortization:

Stock-based compensation (b)

—

136

57

556

Currency exchange items (c)

(536

)

(344

)

236

(470

)

Acquisition and restructuring related expense, net (d)

276

1,145

3,767

2,488

Other (e)

2,653

1,920

1,567

1,657

Total other adjustments

2,393

2,857

5,627

4,231

Loss on debt extinguishment

—

—

—

4,926

Amortization

8,642

9,253

25,808

26,299

Tax effect (f)

(2,708

)

(2,815

)

(7,717

)

(8,360

)

Adjusted net income

$

31,874

$

25,345

$

106,205

$

88,815

Weighted average number of common shares outstanding, basic

216,826,626

215,231,886

216,395,032

214,836,643

Weighted average number of common shares outstanding, diluted

222,420,881

221,436,206

222,074,267

221,251,355

Basic EPS

$

0.11

$

0.08

$

0.38

$

0.30

Diluted EPS

$

0.11

$

0.07

$

0.37

$

0.29

Adjusted basic EPS

$

0.15

$

0.12

$

0.49

$

0.41

Adjusted diluted EPS

$

0.14

$

0.11

$

0.48

$

0.40

(a)

Tax adjustments for the three and nine months ended September 27, 2025 reflect a normalized tax rate of 24.5% and 24.5%, respectively, compared to the Company’s effective tax rate of 23.0% and 23.9%, respectively. The Company’s effective tax rate for the three and nine months ended September 27, 2025 primarily includes the tax benefits resulting from stock compensation. Tax adjustments for the three and nine months ended September 28, 2024 reflect a normalized tax rate of 23.2% and 22.5%, respectively, compared to the Company's effective tax rate of 21.1% and 20.9%, respectively. The Company’s effective tax rate for the three months ended September 28, 2024 includes the tax benefits resulting from stock compensation and the nine months ended September 28, 2024 additionally includes a tax benefit resulting from a return-to-provision adjustment.

(b)

Represents non-cash stock-based compensation expense related to equity awards issued to management, employees, and directors. The adjustment includes only expense related to awards issued under the 2017 Equity Incentive Plan, which were awards granted prior to the effective date of the IPO.

(c)

Represents unrealized non-cash (gains) losses on foreign denominated monetary assets and liabilities and foreign currency contracts.

(d)

Adjustments in the three months ended September 27, 2025 are primarily driven by $0.3 million of costs related to restructuring actions in E&RW. Adjustments in the three months ended September 28, 2024 are primarily driven by $0.7 million of transaction and integration costs associated with the acquisition of the ChlorKing business and $0.4 million of costs to finalize actions initiated in prior years.

Adjustments in the nine months ended September 27, 2025 are primarily driven by $3.3 million of transaction and integration costs associated with the acquisition of the ChlorKing business, $0.5 million of costs related to restructuring actions in E&RW and $0.2 million of separation costs for the consolidation of operations in North America, partially offset by a reduction in expense of $0.2 million to finalize the relocation of the Company's corporate office functions to Charlotte, North Carolina from Berkeley Heights, New Jersey. Adjustments in the nine months ended September 28, 2024 are primarily driven by $1.3 million of transaction and integration costs associated with the acquisition of ChlorKing, $0.7 million of separation and other costs associated with the centralization and consolidation of operations in Europe and $0.4 million of costs to finalize actions initiated in prior years.

(e)

Adjustments in the three months ended September 27, 2025 primarily include a $2.8 million non-recurring litigation expense. Expense beyond the $2.8 million will be paid by the Company's insurance carriers pursuant to the Company's retention amount with its insurance carriers. Other adjustments include $0.2 million of income from insurance proceeds related to flood damage associated with a hurricane at a contract manufacturing facility. Adjustments in the three months ended September 28, 2024 are primarily driven by a $1.6 million non-cash increase in cost of goods sold resulting from the fair value inventory step-up adjustment recognized as part of the purchase accounting for the acquisition of the ChlorKing business and $0.3 million of costs incurred related to litigation.

Adjustments in the nine months ended September 27, 2025 primarily include a $2.8 million non-recurring litigation expense. Expense beyond the $2.8 million will be paid by the Company's insurance carriers pursuant to the Company's retention amount with its insurance carriers. Other adjustments include $1.3 million of income from insurance proceeds related to flood damage associated with a hurricane at a contract manufacturing facility. Adjustments in the nine months ended September 28, 2024 are primarily driven by a $1.6 million non-cash increase in cost of goods sold resulting from the fair value inventory step-up adjustment recognized as part of the purchase accounting for the acquisition of the ChlorKing business and $0.5 million of costs incurred related to litigation, partially offset by $0.5 million of gains on the sale of assets.

(f)

The tax effect represents the immediately preceding adjustments at the normalized tax rates as discussed in footnote (a) above.

Segment Reconciliations

Following is a reconciliation from segment income to adjusted segment income for the North America (“NAM”) and Europe & Rest of World (“E&RW”) segments:

(Dollars in thousands)

Three Months Ended

Three Months Ended

September 27, 2025

September 28, 2024

NAM

E&RW

NAM

E&RW

Segment income

$

55,387

$

6,247

$

51,569

$

2,475

Depreciation

4,675

441

4,404

271

Amortization

1,760

—

1,677

—

Stock-based compensation

—

—

107

—

Other (a)

(101

)

—

1,704

—

Total adjustments

6,334

441

7,892

271

Adjusted segment income

$

61,721

$

6,688

$

59,461

$

2,746

Segment income margin %

26.6

%

17.3

%

26.4

%

7.6

%

Adjusted segment income margin %

29.6

%

18.5

%

30.5

%

8.4

%

(Dollars in thousands)

Nine Months Ended

Nine Months Ended

September 27, 2025

September 28, 2024

NAM

E&RW

NAM

E&RW

Segment income

$

182,215

$

20,374

$

166,646

$

16,800

Depreciation

14,623

1,294

12,619

791

Amortization

5,221

—

4,874

—

Stock-based compensation

—

—

176

10

Other (a)

(611

)

—

1,723

—

Total adjustments

19,233

1,294

19,392

801

Adjusted segment income

$

201,448

$

21,668

$

186,038

$

17,601

Segment income margin %

28.0

%

16.7

%

27.3

%

14.6

%

Adjusted segment income margin %

31.0

%

17.7

%

30.5

%

15.3

%

More News From Hayward Holdings, Inc.

Move expected to simplify corporate structure and increase capital management flexibility while remaining anchored in the French Technology ecosystem

Direct listing to replace current ADS structure, enabling potential inclusion in U.S. stock indices

, /PRNewswire/ -- Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ: CRTO) ("Criteo" or the "Company"), the global platform connecting the commerce ecosystem, today announced its intention to pursue a transfer of its legal domicile from France to Luxembourg via a cross-border conversion (the "Conversion") and replace its American Depositary Shares ("ADSs") structure with ordinary shares to be directly listed on Nasdaq. The Conversion is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2026.

Criteo remains deeply committed to its teams, offices and investments in France, where it continues to play a leading role in the French technology and AI innovation ecosystem.

Frederik van der Kooi, Chairperson of the Board, said "The Board views these actions as an important strategic step toward unlocking significant and sustainable shareholder value. It is also a natural evolution in Criteo's journey to fully realize the benefits of our U.S. listing — a strategic move originally made by our founders to support the Company's long-term growth. Since Criteo became a public company, the U.S. equity market landscape has shifted significantly, and we are confident that, among other benefits, this initiative can reduce the complexities of Criteo's current structure, increase flexibility for share repurchases, and support potential inclusion in certain U.S. indices. With a Luxembourg domicile, we could potentially pursue a subsequent transfer to the U.S., which would enable broader eligibility for major U.S. stock indices, providing access to the massive pools of passive capital tracking these benchmarks."

Michael Komasinski, Chief Executive Officer, added "This project, aligned with the perspectives we consistently hear from our shareholders, demonstrates our confidence in the Company's strategy and growth potential, ensuring we have the optimal structure to maximize shareholder value and strengthen our competitiveness. Importantly, as we continue to position Criteo for long-term global success, we remain deeply anchored in the French technology ecosystem. Our AI Lab and teams in Paris will continue to drive innovation and sustain our leadership in AI-powered commerce around the world."

The redomiciliation to Luxembourg and the direct listing of Criteo's ordinary shares on Nasdaq offer significant benefits, including:

positioning Criteo for potential inclusion in certain U.S. indices, subject to meeting other eligibility criteria, thereby expanding the Company's access to passive investment capital, triggering associated benchmarking from actively managed funds and broadening its shareholder base.
providing greater capital management flexibility by reducing or eliminating current restrictions related to share repurchases and holdings of treasury shares.
eliminating fees and complexities associated with ADSs potentially increasing stock liquidity.

In addition, Luxembourg has a well-established regime of cross-border mergers between Luxembourg and U.S. companies. Following the Conversion, Criteo intends to pursue a subsequent transfer of its domicile from Luxembourg to the United States if the Board determines such action is in the best interests of Criteo and its shareholders.

The Conversion will require prior consultation with Criteo's works council, and is subject to certain closing conditions, including shareholder approval by a two-thirds majority of the votes cast by shareholders present or represented.

Conference Call Information

Criteo's senior management team will discuss the Conversion and the Company's Q3 2025 earnings on a call that will take place today at 8:00 AM ET, 1:00 PM CET. The call will be webcast live on the Criteo website at https://criteo.investorroom.com/ and will subsequently be available for replay.

United States:            +1 800 836 8184
International:              +1 646 357 8785
France                        080-094-5120

Please ask to be joined to the "Criteo" call.

Disclaimers

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This communication contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements include statements with respect to our financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, plans, objectives, future performance and business and the assumptions underlying such statements. By way of illustration, words such as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "intend", "estimate", "project", "will", "should", "could", "may", "predict" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain such identifying words. We base forward-looking statements on our current assumptions, expectations, estimates and projections about us and the markets that we serve in light of our industry experience, as well as our perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors that we believe are appropriate under the circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties, estimates and assumptions that are difficult to predict and often outside of our control. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, including, among others: failure to obtain the required shareholder vote to adopt the proposals needed to complete the transaction; failure to satisfy any of the other conditions to the transaction, including the condition that the option to withdraw shares for cash in connection with the transaction is not exercised above a certain threshold; the transaction not being completed; the impact or outcome of any legal proceedings or regulatory actions that may be instituted against us in connection with the transaction; failure to list our shares on Nasdaq following the transaction or maintain our listing thereafter; inability to take advantage of the potential strategic opportunities provided by, and realize the potential benefits of, the transaction; the disruption of current plans and operations by the transaction; the disruption to our relationships, including with employees, landowners, suppliers, lenders, partners, governments and shareholders; the future financial performance of Criteo following the transaction, including our anticipated growth rate and market opportunity; changes in shareholders' rights as a result of the transaction; inability to terminate the deposit agreement and withdraw our ordinary shares from the depositary so as to terminate our ADS program; difficulty in adapting to operating under the laws of Luxembourg; the deferment or abandonment of the transaction by our board of directors up to three days prior to the general shareholders' meeting to vote thereon; following the completion of the transaction, a delay or failure in our ability to redomicile to the United States via the merger into a newly incorporated and wholly-owned U.S. subsidiary for any reason; costs or taxes related to the transaction; changes in general political, economic and competitive conditions and specific market conditions; adverse changes in the marketing industry; changes in applicable laws or accounting practices; failure related to our technology and our ability to innovate and respond to changes in technology; uncertainty regarding our ability to access a consistent supply of internet display advertising inventory and expand access to such inventory; investments in new business opportunities and the timing of these investments; whether the projected benefits of the transaction, acquisitions or other strategic transactions materialize as expected; uncertainty regarding our international operations and expansion, including related to changes in a specific country's or region's political or economic conditions or policies (such as changes in or new tariffs); the impact of competition; uncertainty regarding legislative, regulatory or self-regulatory developments regarding data privacy matters and the impact of efforts by other participants in our industry to comply therewith; our ability to obtain and utilize certain data as a result of consumer concerns regarding data collection and sharing, as well as potential limitations in accessing data from third parties; failure to enhance our brand cost-effectively; recent growth rates not being indicative of future growth; our ability to manage growth, potential fluctuations in operating results; our ability to grow our base of clients; risks related to future opportunities and plans, including the uncertainty of expected future financial performance and results; and those risks detailed from time-to-time under the caption "Risk Factors" and elsewhere in Criteo's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commissions (the "SEC") and reports, including Criteo's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, filed with the SEC on February 28, 2025, subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and the Registration Statement on Form S-4 expected to be filed in connection with the transaction, as well as future filings and reports by Criteo. As a result of these and other factors, no assurance can be given as to our future results and achievements. Accordingly, a forward-looking statement is neither a prediction nor a guarantee of future events or circumstances and those future events or circumstances may not occur. You should not place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this communication. We are under no obligation, and we expressly disclaim any obligation, to update or alter any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

Additional Information and Where to Find It
In connection with the transaction, Criteo intends to file a Registration Statement on Form S-4 with the SEC that will include a preliminary proxy statement for a special meeting of Criteo's shareholders to approve the transaction and will also constitute a preliminary prospectus. After the Registration Statement on Form S-4 is declared effective, the definitive proxy statement / prospectus and other relevant documents will be made available to Criteo's shareholders as of the record date established for voting on the transaction and the other proposals relating to the transaction set forth in the proxy statement / prospectus. Criteo may also file other relevant documents with the SEC regarding the transaction. This communication is not a substitute for the registration statements, the proxy statement / prospectus (if and when available) or any other document that Criteo may file with the SEC with respect to the transaction. The definitive proxy statement / prospectus will be mailed to Criteo's shareholders. INVESTORS AND SECURITY HOLDERS ARE URGED TO READ THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT, THE PROXY STATEMENT / PROSPECTUS, ANY AMENDMENTS OR SUPPLEMENTS TO THOSE DOCUMENTS AND ANY OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS THAT MAY BE FILED WITH THE SEC IF AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE CAREFULLY AND IN THEIR ENTIRETY BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT CRITEO AND THE TRANSACTION.

Shareholders will be able to obtain copies of these materials (if and when they are available) and other documents containing important information about Criteo and the transaction, once such documents are filed with the SEC, free of charge through the website maintained by the SEC at www.sec.gov. Copies of documents filed with the SEC by Criteo are made available free of charge on Criteo's investor relations website at https://criteo.investorroom.com. 

No Offer or Solicitation
This communication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to and does not constitute, or form part of, an offer, invitation or the solicitation of an offer or invitation to purchase, otherwise acquire, subscribe for, sell or otherwise dispose of any securities, or the solicitation of any vote or approval in any jurisdiction, pursuant to the transaction or otherwise, nor shall there be any sale, issuance or transfer of securities in any jurisdiction in contravention of applicable law.

Participants in the Solicitation
Criteo and its directors and certain of its executive officers and other employees may be deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies from Criteo's shareholders in connection with the transaction. Information about Criteo's directors and executive officers is set forth in the proxy statement for Criteo's 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, which was filed with the SEC on April 29, 2025. Investors may obtain additional information regarding the interest of such participants by reading the proxy statement / prospectus and other relevant materials regarding the transaction to be filed with the SEC when they become available. These documents can be obtained free of charge from the sources indicated above in "Additional Information and Where to Find It."

About Criteo
Criteo (NASDAQ: CRTO) is the global platform connecting the commerce ecosystem for brands, agencies, retailers, and media owners. Its AI-powered advertising platform has unique access to more than $1 trillion in annual commerce sales—powering connections with shoppers, inspiring discovery, and enabling highly personalized experiences. With thousands of clients and partnerships spanning global retail to digital commerce, Criteo delivers the technology, tools, and insights businesses need to drive performance and growth. For more information, please visit www.criteo.com.

Contact:
Investor Relations
Melanie Dambre, [email protected] 

Public Relations
Jessica Meyers, [email protected]

SOURCE Criteo Corp

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Dinichert joins Criteo's leadership team to lead global sales for Performance Media and oversee global business operations

, /PRNewswire/ -- Criteo (NASDAQ: CRTO), the global platform connecting the commerce ecosystem, today announced the appointment of Edouard Dinichert as Chief Customer Officer, effective December 1, 2025. In this role based in New York City, Dinichert will report directly to Chief Executive Officer Michael Komasinski and will lead global sales and operations for Criteo's Performance Media business. He will focus on accelerating growth and strengthening commercial excellence, while ensuring that client success remains central to Criteo's approach. His appointment underscores the Company's continued commitment to advancing client success and driving performance-led innovation globally.

Edouard Dinichert, Chief Customer Officer at Criteo

"Criteo has spent two decades delivering measurable performance, and in doing so, has become a unifying force for advertising and commerce," said Dinichert. "With its global reach and innovation in AI and data insights, the company is uniquely positioned to connect every part of the commerce journey. I'm thrilled to join the team and help drive Criteo's next wave of growth with our clients and partners."

Dinichert brings more than 20 years of industry experience leading global revenue organizations that bridge creativity, data, and performance. He most recently served as Chief Revenue Officer at TripleLift and was one of the three executives who led the Office of the CEO from July 2024 to January 2025. At TripleLift, he scaled the company's creative supply-side platform (SSP) offerings across retail media, CTV, and data-driven curation.

Earlier, he spent over a decade at Amazon, where he launched and led Amazon Advertising in France and then built its global Ad Tech Sales & Services organization, encompassing Amazon DSP, Amazon Ad Server (formerly Sizmek), and Amazon Marketing Cloud adoption and growth. Working closely with AWS and cross-functional teams, he advanced privacy-aware solutions that connected CRM, media, and analytics, while fostering API-first innovation with agencies and partners.

"As we continue to expand the reach and impact of performance media globally, Edouard's leadership will be instrumental in accelerating customer growth," said Michael Komasinski, Chief Executive Officer at Criteo. "His deep experience in scaling data-driven organizations and driving commercial excellence will help accelerate our momentum and deliver greater value for our clients and partners worldwide. As a dual French and Swiss national, Edouard also brings a truly cross-market, cross-cultural perspective that reflects Criteo's European roots and global ambitions."

Contacts
Criteo Public Relations
Jessica Meyers, [email protected]
Criteo Investor Relations
Melanie Dambre, [email protected]

About Criteo 

Criteo (NASDAQ: CRTO) is the global platform connecting the commerce ecosystem for brands, agencies, retailers, and media owners. Its AI-powered advertising platform has unique access to more than $1 trillion in annual commerce sales—powering connections with shoppers, inspiring discovery, and enabling highly personalized experiences. With thousands of clients and partnerships spanning global retail to digital commerce, Criteo delivers the technology, tools, and insights businesses need to drive performance and growth. For more information, please visit criteo.com.

Forward Looking Statements Disclosure

This press release contains forward-looking statements, including our expectations regarding our market opportunity and future growth prospects and other statements that are not historical facts and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Factors that might cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to: failure related to our technology and our ability to innovate and respond to changes in technology, uncertainty regarding our ability to access a consistent supply of internet display advertising inventory and expand access to such inventory, investments in new business opportunities and the timing of these investments, whether the projected benefits of acquisitions or strategic transactions materialize as expected, uncertainty regarding international operations and expansion, including related to changes in a specific country's or region's political or economic conditions (such as changes in or new tariffs), the impact of competition or client in-housing, uncertainty regarding legislative, regulatory or self-regulatory developments regarding data privacy matters and the impact of efforts by other participants in our industry to comply therewith, the impact of consumer resistance to the collection and sharing of data, our ability to access data through third parties, failure to enhance our brand cost-effectively, recent growth rates not being indicative of future growth, client flexibility to increase or decrease spend, our ability to manage growth, potential fluctuations in operating results, our ability to grow our base of clients, and the financial impact of maximizing Contribution ex-TAC, as well as risks related to future opportunities and plans, including the uncertainty of expected future financial performance and results and those risks detailed from time-to-time under the caption "Risk Factors" and elsewhere in the Company's SEC filings and reports, including the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on February 28, 2025, and in subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q as well as future filings and reports by the Company. Importantly, at this time, macro-economic conditions including inflation and fluctuating interest rates in the U.S. have impacted and may continue to impact Criteo's business, financial condition, cash flow and results of operations.

Except as required by law, the Company undertakes no duty or obligation to update any forward-looking statements contained in this release as a result of new information, future events, changes in expectations or otherwise.

SOURCE Criteo

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IRVING, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nexstar Media Group's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share of its common stock.

, /PRNewswire/ -- REGENXBIO Inc. (Nasdaq: RGNX) today announced that it will host a conference call on Thursday, November 6, at 8:00 a.m. ET to discuss its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, and operational highlights.

Listeners can register for the webcast via this link. Analysts wishing to participate in the question and answer session should use this link. A replay of the webcast will be available via the company's investor website approximately two hours after the call's conclusion. Those who plan on participating are advised to join 15 minutes prior to the start time.

ABOUT REGENXBIO Inc.
REGENXBIO is a biotechnology company on a mission to improve lives through the curative potential of gene therapy. Since its founding in 2009, REGENXBIO has pioneered the field of AAV gene therapy. REGENXBIO is advancing a late-stage pipeline of one-time treatments for rare and retinal diseases, including RGX-202 for the treatment of Duchenne; clemidsogene lanparvovec (RGX-121) for the treatment of MPS II and RGX-111 for the treatment of MPS I, both in partnership with Nippon Shinyaku; and surabgene lomparvovec (ABBV-RGX-314) for the treatment of wet AMD and diabetic retinopathy, in collaboration with AbbVie. Thousands of patients have been treated with REGENXBIO's AAV platform, including those receiving Novartis' ZOLGENSMA®. REGENXBIO's investigational gene therapies have the potential to change the way healthcare is delivered for millions of people. For more information, please visit WWW.REGENXBIO.COM.

Contacts:
Dana Cormack
Corporate Communications
[email protected] 

Investors:
George E. MacDougall
Investor Relations
[email protected] 

SOURCE REGENXBIO Inc.

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October 29, 2025 07:09 ET

 | Source:

Panoro Minerals Ltd.

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWS WIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Oct. 29, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Panoro Minerals Ltd. (“Panoro” or the “Company”) (TSX.V: PML), is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with Red Cloud Securities Inc., who has agreed to act as lead agent and sole bookrunner on behalf of a syndicate of agents (collectively, the “Agents”), in connection with a “best efforts” private placement (the “Marketed Offering”) for the sale of up to 12,500,000 units of the Company (each, a “Unit”) at a price of C$0.40 per Unit (the “Offering Price”) for aggregate gross proceeds of up to C$5,000,000. Wheaton Precious Metals Corp., whose wholly owned subsidiary has previously entered into a precious metals purchase agreement with the Company in respect of the Cotabambas Project, had indicated to the Company, prior to settling the terms of the Marketed Offering, its intention to participate in the Company’s upcoming equity offering.

Each Unit will consist of one common share of the Company (each, a “Common Share”) and one common share purchase warrant (each whole warrant, a “Warrant”). Each Warrant will entitle the holder thereof to purchase one Common Share (a “Warrant Share”) at a price of C$0.60 at any time on or before that date which is 36 months following the Closing Date (as herein defined).

The Company also grants the Agents an option, exercisable in full or in part up to 48 hours prior to the closing of the Marketed Offering, to sell up to an additional 2,500,000 Units at the Offering Price for additional gross proceeds of up to C$1,000,000 (the “Agent’s Option”). The Marketed Offering and the securities issuable upon exercise of the Agent’s Option shall be collectively referred to as the “Offering” and the “Units” being offered and distributed as part of the Offering shall include those Units offered or distributed pursuant to the Agents’ Option.

The Company intends to use the net proceeds of the Offering for infill drilling, metallurgical testing, pre-feasibility engineering and completion of an updated preliminary economic assessment (“PEA”) for the Cotabambas Copper-Gold-Silver project (the “Cotabambas Project”) as well as working capital and general corporate purposes.

Subject to compliance with applicable regulatory requirements and in accordance with National Instrument 45-106 - Prospectus Exemptions (“NI 45-106”), the Units will be offered for sale to purchasers resident in all of the provinces of Canada except Québec pursuant to the listed issuer financing exemption under Part 5A of NI 45-106, as amended by Coordinated Blanket Order 45-935 – Exemptions from Certain Conditions of the Listed Issuer Financing Exemption (the “Listed Issuer Financing Exemption”). The Common Shares and Warrants underlying the Units, and the Warrant Shares underlying the Warrants, if exercised, are expected to be immediately freely tradeable in accordance with applicable Canadian securities legislation if sold to purchasers resident in Canada. The Units may also be sold in offshore jurisdictions and in the United States on a private placement basis pursuant to one or more exemptions from the registration requirements of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “U.S. Securities Act”).

There is an offering document (the “Offering Document”) related to the Offering that can be accessed under the Company’s profile at www.sedarplus.ca and on the Company’s website at: www.panoro.com. Prospective investors should read this Offering Document before making an investment decision.

The Offering is scheduled to close on November 18, 2025 or such other date as the Company and the Agents may agree (the “Closing Date”). Completion of the Offering is subject to certain conditions including, but not limited to, the receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals, including the approval of the TSX Venture Exchange (the “TSXV”).

The securities to be offered pursuant to the Offering have not been, and will not be, registered under the U.S. Securities Act or any U.S. state securities laws, and may not be offered or sold in the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, United States persons absent registration or any applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the U.S. Securities Act and applicable U.S. state securities laws. This news release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities in the United States, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.

About Panoro

Panoro remains focused on completing its technical objectives including project optimization studies which will feed into a PEA and help define the scope for the prefeasibility study for its Cotabambas Project.

Corporately, in parallel with the advancement of technical objectives, Panoro is engaged in early-stage discussions of potential strategic alternatives with several parties to advance the Cotabambas Project into construction and operation.

CAUTION REGARDING FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS: Information and statements contained in this news release that are not historical facts are "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation and involve risks and uncertainties.

Examples of forward-looking information and statements contained in this news release include information and statements with respect to:

statements regarding the closing of the Offering;the timing of the closing of the Offering;the intended use of proceeds of the Offering;regulatory approval of the Offering;mineral resource estimates and assumptions;completing its technical objectives, including a PEA; andthe Company’s plans and expectations for the Cotabambas Project. Various assumptions or factors are typically applied in drawing conclusions or making the forecasts or projections set out in forward-looking information. In some instances, material assumptions and factors are presented or discussed in this news release in connection with the statements or disclosure containing the forward-looking information and statements. You are cautioned that the following list of material factors and assumptions is not exhaustive. The factors and assumptions include, but are not limited to, assumptions concerning: the closing of the Offering on the anticipated terms or at all; the Company receiving all necessary approvals in respect of the Offering; the Company using the net proceeds of the Offering as anticipated; metal prices and by-product credits; cut-off grades; short and long term power prices; processing recovery rates; mine plans and production scheduling; process and infrastructure design and implementation; accuracy of the estimation of operating and capital costs; applicable tax and royalty rates; open-pit design; accuracy of mineral reserve and resource estimates and reserve and resource modeling; reliability of sampling and assay data; representativeness of mineralization; accuracy of metallurgical test work; and amenability of upgrading and blending mineralization.

Forward-looking statements are subject to a variety of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including, without limitation:

the risk that the Offering does not close on the anticipated timeline or at all;the risk that the Company raises less than the anticipated amount of gross proceeds of the Offering;the risk that the Company does not use the proceeds from the Offering as currently expected;risks related to not receiving regulatory approval of the Offering;risks relating to metal price fluctuation;risks relating to estimates of mineral resources, production, capital and operating costs, decommissioning, or reclamation expenses, proving to be inaccurate;the inherent operational risks associated with mining and mineral exploration, development, mine construction and operating activities, many of which are beyond Panoro's control;risks relating to Panoro's or its partners' ability to enforce legal rights under permits or licenses or risk that Panoro or its partners will become subject to litigation or arbitration that has an adverse outcome;risks relating to Panoro's or its partners' projects being in Peru, including political, economic, and regulatory instability;risks relating to the uncertainty of applications to obtain, extend or renew licenses and permits;risks relating to potential challenges to Panoro's or its partners' right to explore or develop projects;risks relating to mineral resource estimates being based on interpretations and assumptions which may result in less mineral production under actual circumstances;risks relating to Panoro's or its partners' operations being subject to environmental and remediation requirements, which may increase the cost of doing business and restrict operations;risks relating to being adversely affected by environmental, safety and regulatory risks, including increased regulatory burdens or delays and changes of law;risks relating to inadequate insurance or inability to obtain insurance;risks relating to the fact that Panoro's and its partners' properties are not yet in commercial production;risks relating to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates and tax rates;risks relating to Panoro's ability to raise funding to continue its exploration, development, and mining activities; andcounterparty risk under Panoro's agreements. This list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect the forward-looking information and statements contained in this news release. Should one or more of these risks and uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described in the forward-looking information. The forward-looking information contained in this news release is based on beliefs, expectations, and opinions as of the date of this news release. For the reasons set forth above, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking information. Panoro does not undertake to update any forward-looking information and statements included herein, except in accordance with applicable securities laws.

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

SOURCE Panoro Minerals Ltd.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, CONTACT:
Panoro Minerals Ltd.,
Luquman Shaheen, President & CEO,
Email: [email protected], Web: www.panoro.com

Ripple's XRP added 11% to its value in the last seven days and has stabilised around the $2.6 mark over the previous few hours. The recent positive performance brings XRP's year-to-date gains to 28%, with further gains expected ahead of the FOMC meeting today.

BitMine is strengthening its position as the world’s largest corporate Ethereum treasury holder as market volatility continues.

Summary

BitMine has added 27,316 ETH worth $113 million to its treasury, lifting its total Ethereum holdings to 3.31 million ETH valued at over $13.3 billion.
Chairman Tom Lee links BitMine’s aggressive buying strategy to improving global macro conditions, including progress in U.S.–China trade talks and stronger equity markets.
Ethereum is holding above the $4,000 support zone after rebounding from a brief pullback, with bulls now targeting the $4,250 resistance for the next breakout.

BitMine Immersion Tech recently acquired 27,316 ETH worth $113 million, according to on-chain data from Lookonchain. This latest addition brings the mining and technology firm’s total Ethereum holdings to 3.31 million ETH, now valued at approximately $13.3 billion.

Overall, BitMine’s portfolio is worth $14.2 billion, including its Ethereum (ETH) holdings purchased at an average of $4,164 per token, 192 Bitcoin, an $88 million stake in Eightco Holdings, and $305 million in cash reserves. The company now controls about 2.8% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, marking steady progress toward its goal of owning 5%.

Chairman Tom Lee recently attributed the company’s aggressive strategy to the market rebound following the October liquidation event, stating that “technicals for both Bitcoin and Ethereum are flipping positive.” He added that improving market structure and growing institutional participation are signaling the early stages of a stronger recovery cycle.

With BitMine’s latest purchase, market attention is once again turning to Ethereum’s price performance and on-chain momentum, as investors gauge how the asset will react to growing institutional demand.

BitMine deepens Ethereum bet as price looks primed to go higher 
ETH is currently trading at $4,033, down 1.1% over the last 24 hours but still up 4.45% for the week, per market data from crypto.news. 

The week began with a sharp surge that sent price up to $4,253 on Monday, but price was quickly rejected at that resistance and pulled back. By Tuesday, ETH hit a local low near $3,931 before recovering this morning to hold support and return above the $4,000 mark.​

With the asset now above this critical psychological level, the next directional move could be a powerful one. If broader market conditions remain steady and no major macroeconomic surprises surface, ETH looks positioned to retest the $4,250-$4,300 resistance zone. 

Ethereum price chart | Source: TradingView
On the whole, the recent price action snapping back above $4,000 after a brief dip suggests buying interest remains strong and ETH’s upward momentum could continue. The key for bulls will be reclaiming and closing above this week’s high to open a path to new multi-month highs.

As the cryptocurrency market recovers from recent volatility, XRP has once again captured the attention of analysts and investors. A growing number of experts are predicting a strong bullish phase for the asset, with projections suggesting that XRP could climb as high as $15 in the coming market cycle.

The exchange-traded product offers investors regulated access to Bittensor’s TAO token with staking rewards and full physical backing. Oct 29, 2025, 9:28 a.m.

Deutsche Digital Assets, a Germany-regulated provider of exchange-traded products (ETPs), plans to list an ETP bringing investors exposure to TAO$419.59, a cryptocurrency linked to decentralized artificial intelligence, with the help of Nasdaq Nordic-listed broker Safello (SFL), the firms said on Wednesday.

The Safello Bittensor Staked TAO ETP will trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange with the ticker STAO in the next couple of weeks.

The product is physically backed by TAO tokens held in cold storage with a regulated custodian, according to a press release. Investors will receive returns based on both TAO’s price movements and staking rewards, which are automatically reinvested into the fund, with a maximum fee of 1.49%.

Interest is growing in Bittensor, a decentralized network for AI that rewards people for contributing data and computing power to carry out tasks like text translation, fraud detection, image recognition and more esoteric goals like predicting the structure of complex protein chains.

An asset management approach to the Bittensor universe has already been launched by Digital Currency Group founder Barry Silbert, whose Yuma Asset Management offers wealthy investors exposure to “subnet” tokens, the protocol-native crypto assets of Bittensor’s decentralized contributor networks.

"Bittensor is a prime example of how decentralized technology and AI are converging to reshape the future of value creation. Together with DDA, we’re making it possible for investors to easily access this innovation through a regulated and transparent investment vehicle.” said Safello CEO Emelie Moritz.

The Safello Bittensor Staked TAO ETP is a total return exchange-traded product that tracks the Kaiko Safello Staked Bittensor Index (KSSTAO).

In July, U.K. exchange Archax said it agreed to buy Deutsche Digital Assets for an undisclosed amount.

AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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The U.S. dollar-pegged token is expected to become available in the first half of 2026.

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Western Union plans to launch a stablecoin called the U.S. Dollar Payment Token (USDPT) for its payment network next year.The stablecoin will be issued by Anchorage Digital on the Solana blockchain, aiming for low-cost, fast settlements.This move follows the trend of traditional finance firms integrating stablecoins, with competitors like MoneyGram and PayPal already adopting similar technologies.Read full story

XRP price is holding steady near $2.60 as a key sell signal tests its recent rally, with whales and possible exchange-traded fund approvals anchoring market confidence.

Summary

TD Sequential flashes a short-term XRP sell signal after a strong weekly gain.
Whale accumulation and ETF optimism support long-term upside.
Technical setup shows consolidation with cautious bullish momentum.

XRP slipped 0.4% over the past 24 hours to trade at $2.63 at press time. The toke is up 9.4% in the past week but down another 9.4% over the last month. At current prices, XRP is about 27% below its July peak of $3.65.

Trading volume rose 15% to $4.9 billion, showing renewed participation even as short-term sentiment wavers. CoinGlass data shows that XRP (XRP) open interest rose 0.42% to $4.55 billion, while derivatives volume fell 3.18% to $8.46 billion. 

This mix suggests that traders are reducing their aggressive short-term bets while holding onto their open positions, which is frequently a sign of consolidation before a big move.

TD Sequential flags possible pause in XRP uptrend
The TD Sequential, a momentum-based indicator that monitors price exhaustion and trend reversals, has issued a new sell signal, according to an Oct. 29 post on X by analyst Ali Martinez. The tool has accurately identified XRP’s turning points over the past three months. 

Given its most recent sell signal, which points to a possible cooldown following recent gains, the uptrend may find it difficult to break above $2.70 in the near future.

Still, large holder activity remains strong. Santiment data shows wallets holding 10–100 million XRP added roughly 190 million tokens in late October, worth about $505–560 million.

Addresses with over 10,000 XRP also reached a record 317,500, showing steady accumulation ahead of possible ETF approvals. Analysts put the odds of approval between 95% and 100%, a move that could attract $4–10 billion in inflows.

Ripple’s broader expansion adds to the long-term outlook. The company’s application for a U.S. national trust bank license is under review by the OCC, with a decision expected in the coming weeks. If approved, it would allow Ripple to access a Federal Reserve master account and expand its On-Demand Liquidity services used by over 1,700 institutions. 

In addition, its recent $1 billion acquisition of GTreasury further supports plans to use XRP in corporate finance through a new $1B XRP treasury program.

XRP price technical analysis
The daily chart for XRP shows consolidation between $2.34 and $2.69. Bollinger Bands are getting narrower, which indicates less volatility in the future. While the MACD displays a slight bullish crossover, the relative strength is at 50, indicating neutral momentum.

XRP daily chart. Credit: crypto.news
The majority of short-term moving averages (10–30 days) show buying pressure, but longer-term averages (50–100 days) continue to be bearish, highlighting a cautious setup.

If whale accumulation persists, a sustained move above $2.70 may pave the way to $3.00 and possibly a retest of July highs. On the other hand, a decline below $2.40 could confirm the sell signal from the TD Sequential and push losses down towards $2.20.

Bitcoin’s inverse head and shoulders pattern remains valid as long as it holds above $106,600, keeping bullish hopes alive.Large holders moved over 10,000 BTC to exchanges between October 25–28, triggering the expected breakout failure near $115,000.The Holder Accumulation Ratio still sits above 60%, showing that long-term buyers are quietly accumulating despite short-term profit-taking.Bitcoin (BTC) spent most of October moving sideways, gaining barely 1.5% across the month. Over the past week, though, the Bitcoin price has climbed nearly 5%, bringing the focus back to a possible bullish reversal.

Earlier this week, Bitcoin briefly crossed $113,200 before getting rejected near $115,000 — a zone that now defines the line between hesitation and renewed strength. The rejection looked sudden, but the data shows it was expected. And if one key level gives way, the recovery could be, too.

Sponsored

Why The Breakout FailedThe first signal came from on-chain behavior rather than the charts. CryptoQuant’s Spent Output Value Bands, which track how much Bitcoin each holder group moves to exchanges, showed a sharp rise in selling pressure between October 25 and 28.

The 100–1,000 BTC group (sharks) raised their exchange transfers from 1,046 BTC to 7,191 BTC, while the 1,000–10,000 BTC group (whales) added around 3,250 BTC during the same time.

Bitcoin Whales Dumping: CryptoQuantWant more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Such inflows often mean profit-taking or short-term hedging. Together, these moves flooded exchanges with supply right as Bitcoin tested $115,000, capping the Bitcoin price move and stopping what could have been a clean continuation.

Bitcoin Price Chart: TradingViewSponsored

This wave of large-holder activity explains why the breakout attempt stalled despite strong retail optimism.

Why The Setup Still HoldsEven after that sell pressure, Bitcoin’s foundation looks steady. Glassnode’s Holder Accumulation Ratio (HAR), which tracks how many wallets add to their BTC balance, remains firm at 60.2%.

Any reading above 50% means the market is in net accumulation, showing that long-term holders are still quietly buying. While it’s slightly below the recent three-month high near 63%, the data confirms the broader buying trend hasn’t broken.

Bitcoin Accumulation Ongoing: GlassnodeSponsored

This behavior matters because it offsets short-term selling from whales.

As long-term holders absorb the coins moving to exchanges, it prevents deeper pullbacks and keeps the structure stable. That’s what keeps the door open for a renewed push if momentum returns.

Bitcoin Price Structure And Why The Recovery Is ExpectedBitcoin’s current setup still follows a clear technical structure, an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which often signals a shift from selling to buying momentum. The formation remains valid as long as BTC holds above $106,600, which acts as the base of the pattern.

Sponsored

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), an indicator that measures how strong buying or selling momentum is, first flashed a hidden bearish divergence between October 13 and 26, right around the time the breakout attempt formed.

During that period, the Bitcoin price made a lower high, while RSI made a higher high, signaling that momentum was weakening even as traders pushed the price up.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingViewThat imbalance was the reason many expected a possible breakout failure near $115,000. And that’s exactly what followed — a rejection and short-term correction.

Now, the divergence has flattened out, meaning RSI and the Bitcoin price are moving in sync again. This stabilization shows that sellers are losing steam and that the setup for recovery is building strength. However, $115,000 remains the key test. It’s the level that capped the last breakout and will decide whether this pattern continues to evolve higher.

If Bitcoin closes decisively above it, the neckline breakout could open the path toward $117,300 and $125,900 (near BTC’s peak). That would be an 11% gain from the current zone. If the BTC price fails and slips below $106,600, that would invalidate the bullish setup. It could even send BTC toward $103,500.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are regularly making all-time highs. After coming back to retest its bull market parabola, Bitcoin (BTC) looks ready to make its way back to its own all-time high. Is this just the beginning of a future huge move? 

U.S. stock market breakout

Source: TradingView

While a large majority of respected economists and analysts continue to sound the alarm on the U.S. as well as the global economy, the above weekly chart for the S&P 500 Index is painting a spectacularly different picture. The Index has just broken out of an ascending channel that had its first beginnings back in January 2018.

The same doomsayers would argue that this rise just isn’t sustainable. However, one might look at the gold and silver prices. Both have just had quite a rapid correction, but both have now just as quickly rallied back above supports. 

Global liquidity to dry up, but the trend is upThat said, according to Michael Howell, founder and CEO of Crossborder Capital, global liquidity is about to dry up. However, he says that it’s important to differentiate between the cycle and the trend. The cycle might be reaching its peak, but the trend of sound value assets like gold and Bitcoin should continue to rise against debasing fiat currencies. 

So, as far as the cycle goes, could Bitcoin now enter into its final stage, and could we see a proper cycle top?

$BTC breakout arriving soon

Source: TradingView

The 4-hour time frame for $BTC reveals that the price is still holding above the major trendline. A breakout should be arriving soon as the price runs into the descending trendline (faint dotted line). Given that the Stochastic RSI indicators for this time frame have just ticked up, the breakout would be more likely to the upside. A higher high above $116,430 would be the first target.

W pattern playing out so far

Source: TradingView

The daily chart gives a better view of the W pattern that formed below the major trendline. So far, this has broken to the upside and has now come back to confirm the break at the neckline. A bounce would be expected from here.

Huge 8-year trendline breakout on the horizon

Source: TradingView

The 2-week chart for the $BTC price illustrates the trajectories of this, and the previous bull markets. It can be seen that either the 8-year ascending trendline or the current bull market parabola will have to break. 

At the bottom of the chart, the Stochastic RSI indicators are coming down fast. Could they begin to reverse at the 25.00 level, as has happened before? The weekly Stochastic RSI indicators have already bottomed and crossed back up, so if the 2-week indicators also do so, this will signal massive upside price momentum. A break above the 8-year trendline looks to be the more probable outcome.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Bitwise's BSOL generated $57.9 million in volume on its first trading day — the most of any ETF launch this year.

TLDR:

Table of Contents

TLDR:The Fed’s Move and Its Crypto ConnectionQuantitative Tightening and Powell’s Tone Could Drive Price ActionGet 3 Free Stock Ebooks

The Fed’s 25 bps rate cut is priced in, but Powell’s post-meeting tone could steer crypto sentiment sharply.
Ending QT could boost liquidity, sparking risk-on moves across equities and Bitcoin markets.
Traders focus on whether the Fed frames the cut as a “mid-cycle adjustment” or a shift to easing.
A dovish tone from Powell may weaken the dollar, lift yields, and fuel another crypto price surge.

A big day for the markets is here. The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 2 PM ET, with traders already expecting a 25 basis point cut. The odds of that move sit near certainty, but the real story isn’t the rate cut itself. 

What matters is how the Fed frames it and the tone that Chair Jerome Powell takes afterward. Those details could shape the direction of crypto and global risk assets in the days ahead.

The Fed’s Move and Its Crypto Connection
According to Bull Theory on X (formerly Twitter), today’s decision has already been priced into the market. 

That means Bitcoin and other major crypto assets may not react to the rate cut alone. Instead, traders will be focused on the Fed’s statement and how it characterizes the policy shift.

If the central bank calls this move a “mid-cycle adjustment,” markets may see it as a one-time easing, likely resulting in limited reaction or slight pullback. 

But if the tone shifts toward concerns about slowing growth, investors could interpret it as the start of a broader easing cycle. That expectation often drives liquidity back into higher-risk assets such as crypto and tech equities.

The attention now turns to how Treasury yields behave. A dovish Fed statement could push two-year yields lower while weakening the dollar. Historically, that combination tends to lift Bitcoin prices as global liquidity improves and investors rotate into alternative assets.

BIG DAY FOR CRYPTO HOLDERS 🚨

🇺🇸 FED will cut rates today at 2 PM ET.

Rate cut odds are 99.9%, so the move itself is already priced in.

But a rate cut alone won’t decide the direction of the market, what matters is how the Fed frames the decision and what tone Powell takes… pic.twitter.com/RMYuJtV1Fx

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) October 29, 2025

Quantitative Tightening and Powell’s Tone Could Drive Price Action
The other major focus today is Quantitative Tightening (QT). Market watchers expect the Fed to end QT officially, meaning it would stop reducing its balance sheet. If confirmed, that would mark the first real step toward liquidity expansion in over a year.

This policy shift has historically supported “risk-on” behavior. When liquidity flows back into the system, assets like Bitcoin tend to benefit first. Crypto investors are watching closely, as a dovish tone from Powell paired with the end of QT could create a favorable setup for a renewed price rally.

The follow-up press conference at 2:30 PM ET may carry even more weight. If Powell acknowledges slower economic growth or signals confidence that inflation is under control, traders could see it as a green light for further easing. 

That would likely trigger a chain reaction: bond yields falling, the dollar weakening, and risk assets, including crypto,  pushing higher.

On the other hand, if Powell keeps his comments cautious and avoids hinting at more cuts, markets might consolidate. Crypto prices could hold steady as investors wait for more clarity before making bigger moves.

For now, all eyes are on the clock and the Fed’s language. The 25 bps rate cut is just the headline. What comes after could decide whether BTC breaks higher or stays in range through the next cycle.

The second part of the year has seen a notable surge in the US stock market, while Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market has faced its share of uncertainty and significant corrections. 

With the Nasdaq recently surpassing the 26,000 mark, leading analysts are now suggesting that this milestone could be a clear indicator for Bitcoin to finish the year at new highs.

What Historical Patterns Indicate
According to experts at The Bull Theory, the pattern observed with the Nasdaq reaching all-time highs typically suggests a flow of liquidity, an increased risk appetite, and a shift of capital into growth assets. As this phase develops, it often sets the stage for Bitcoin’s next significant movement.

Data compiled by the analysts supports this assertion. Historically, in the first 30 days following a Nasdaq all-time high, Bitcoin has averaged a gain of approximately 7%. This return tends to grow, reaching about 14% within 60 days and climbing to an average of 25% by the 90-day mark. 

The daily chart shows BTC’s price volatility. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
This pattern is not merely coincidental; it reflects a capital rotation where liquidity does not disappear but instead shifts from traditional markets into higher-risk assets like Bitcoin. 

The current situation appears to follow a similar trajectory. The Nasdaq’s rise to 26,000 indicates a wave of liquidity building beneath the surface. With rate cuts beginning and quantitative tightening coming to an end, global capital is once again seeking yield. 

This scenario mirrors the conditions that contributed to Bitcoin’s significant breakouts in previous years, particularly in 2017, 2020, and 2023.

As such, the analysts note that the next four to five months may represent an acceleration phase for Bitcoin, coinciding with a potential pause in equities, which could lead to crypto becoming the primary outlet for liquidity. 

Bitcoin Poised For Breakout Similar To 2020-2021 Cycle
Analysts like Ash Crypto also noted on social media that the BTC/NASDAQ weekly chart is revealing a repeating pattern reminiscent of the 2020-2021 cycle, during which Bitcoin significantly outperformed traditional tech stocks. In both cycles, the October to March timeframe has historically prompted major upward movements. 

After a period of consolidation within a rising wedge, the BTC/NASDAQ pair appears poised for another breakout. Should this pattern repeat, Bitcoin may see substantial gains compared to the Nasdaq in the fourth quarter and into early 2026, Ash Crypto noted. 

BTC/NASDAQ weekly chart showing similar bullish pattern to previous cycles. Source: Ash Crypto on X
Notably, this sets the stage for a major rally that could see Bitcoin prices surpassing current records of over $126,000. However, the market is still characterized by increased volatility, and there is no clear path ahead for BTC.

The leading cryptocurrency is trading at $113,350 after a 2% correction in Tuesday’s trading session, following an initial surge above $115,000. This puts BTC 6.5% below record highs. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The total crypto market capitalization tumbled below $3.9 trillion.

The cryptocurrency market, which started the new business week on the right foot, lost some ground over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipped to almost $112,000, while Ethereum (ETH) and many other leading altcoins have also posted losses. Pi Network’s PI is in the opposite corner with a double-digit gain.

BTC Slips Ahead of Fed’s Decision
The primary cryptocurrency registered an impressive uptick on Monday (October 27), temporarily climbing above $116,000. It surpassed that level yesterday, too, but since then, BTC has been in an evident downtrend.

Several hours ago, the price tumbled to approximately $112,300. The bulls managed to reclaim some lost ground, and as of this writing, Bitcoin is hovering around $113,000, representing a 1.2% decline on a daily scale.

BTC Price, Source: TradingView
The heightened volatility comes just hours before the FOMC meeting, during which the Federal Reserve will decide whether to raise, lower, or keep interest rates in the United States unchanged. The odds of a 0.25% drop are almost certain (according to bets on Polymarket), and we will see how the official announcement impacts the crypto sector. According to some analysts, Bitcoin is at a crossroads and its valuation could either shoot above $120,000 or collapse well below $100K.

Lower interest rates are generally considered good news for bulls, as they could dampen investor appetite for traditional financial products and encourage investment in digital assets.

Following BTC’s price retreat over the past 24 hours, its market capitalization has headed south to around $2.25 trillion, while its dominance over the altcoins stands at nearly 59%.

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PI Enters Green Territory
Ethereum (ETH) has followed BTC’s footsteps, plunging by 3% to under $4,000. Solana (SOL), Bittensor (TAO), Sui (SUI), Hedera (HBAR), and Ethena (ENA) are also among the biggest losers, with declines of 4-7%.

Somewhat surprisingly, Pi Network’s native cryptocurrency is the best-performing digital asset (from the top 100 club) today, with its price spiking by 15% to $0.26. Other notable gainers include TRUMP (+13%) and M (+4%).

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has retraced by 1.7% in the last day to around $3.88 trillion.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview, Source: QuantifyCrypto

The crypto market is turning its attention to XRP, which continues to outperform major players, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. While most cryptocurrencies recorded moderate growth in Q3 2025, XRP’s market capitalization and price surged significantly, reflecting renewed investor confidence and expanding real-world adoption.

XRP Dominates Q3 2025 with $170B Market CapAccording to a recent Messari report, XRP outpaced Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana combined in market cap growth, a clear sign that investor sentiment toward the token is strengthening. XRP’s performance in the third quarter sparked optimism across the broader market.

After months of quiet trading, XRP closed Q3 at $2.85, marking a 27% quarter-over-quarter increase, its strongest quarterly close ever. Its market cap rose 29% to $170.3 billion, surpassing the combined 13.3% growth of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. This remarkable performance signals a shift in market sentiment, as investors increasingly view XRP as a leading force in cross-border finance and tokenized assets.

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) also reported strong network activity. Average daily transactions rose 9% to 1.8 million, while new wallet addresses increased 46% to over 447,000, highlighting growing user adoption.

What’s Driving XRP’s Growth?XRP’s latest rally isn’t just about price appreciation; it’s being driven by real-world adoption and ecosystem expansion. Messari’s report revealed that several corporate players have started adding XRP to their treasury reserves. 

Companies such as Trident Digital, Webus, Wellgistics, and VivoPower, which invested $100 million in XRP, are among the early adopters. Ripple-backed Evernorth also made headlines after acquiring 388 million XRP, worth over $1 billion, making it one of the largest corporate holders of the token.

The rise of the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) trend has further enhanced XRP’s visibility among institutional investors looking for efficient, stable, and blockchain-based financial solutions.

Expanding Ecosystem: Stablecoins and Real-World Assets (RWAs)Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin continues to gain traction, closing Q3 with a market cap of $88.8 million, up 34.7% from the previous quarter. Combined RLUSD supply across Ethereum and XRPL reached nearly $903 million by late October, showing strong momentum in multi-chain adoption.

Meanwhile, the Real-World Asset (RWA) sector on XRPL saw explosive growth, jumping 215% to $364.2 million. Projects like OpenEden US Treasury Bill Vault, Montis Group Limited, and Ondo Short-Term Bond Fund are leading this expansion, driving greater institutional participation in tokenized finance.

What’s Next for XRP?With sustained ecosystem growth, corporate backing, and increasing adoption of stablecoins and RWAs, XRP is positioning itself as a key player in the evolving global financial landscape. The launch of innovative products like Gemini’s XRP credit card and Flare’s FXRP DeFi integration further boosts its real-world utility.

If this momentum continues, XRP could move well beyond its reputation as a payment-focused token, evolving into one of the most widely adopted digital assets, effectively bridging the gap between traditional finance and blockchain technology.

Never Miss a Beat in the Crypto World!Stay ahead with breaking news, expert analysis, and real-time updates on the latest trends in Bitcoin, altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, and more.

FAQsWhy is XRP outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2025?

XRP is rising faster due to strong corporate adoption, increased real-world use, and growing interest in tokenized finance and stablecoins.

What is driving XRP’s market cap growth in Q3 2025?

XRP’s market cap surged from rising institutional investments, growing network activity, and expansion into real-world asset tokenization.

How are companies using XRP in their treasury reserves?

Major firms are adding XRP to reserves for faster, low-cost cross-border payments and to diversify into blockchain-based financial assets.

What’s next for XRP after its strong Q3 performance?

With new products, stablecoin expansion, and DeFi growth, XRP aims to evolve from a payment token into a key bridge for global finance.

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Bitwise Says Its Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) Had a 'Big First Day'; GSOL to List on NYSEA brief slip under $200 drew heavier selling before SOL steadied near $195–$196, as Bitwise touted BSOL’s debut and Grayscale said GSOL will list on NYSE Arca. Oct 29, 2025, 8:13 a.m.

SOL steadies in the mid-$190s as new U.S. ETFs draw attention. (Midjourney / Modified by CoinDesk)

What to know: BSOL launched Oct. 28; Bitwise called it a “big first day” and posted $55.4M in volume and $217.2M AUM.Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas cited around $56M volume.GSOL lists Oct. 29 on NYSE Arca, offering exposure to SOL and potential staking rewards, according to Grayscale.SOL underperformed the broader crypto market despite finishing up 0.78% near $195.58, with overall volume 44% below the seven-day average.Solana SOL$194.91 steadied near $195–$196 after a quick slide through $200 was absorbed around $195.

The Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) began trading Oct. 28; Bitwise said first-day trading volume was $55.4M with $217.2M AUM, targeting 100% staked exposure and seeking to maximize around 7% average staking rewards.

Grayscale Solana Trust ETF (GSOL) is expected to start trading Oct. 29 on NYSE Arca, offering exposure to SOL including potential staking rewards.

Technical analysis highlights The following is based on CoinDesk Research's technical analysis data model.

Performance: SOL up 0.78% at $195.58, underperforming the broader crypto market by 2.33 percentage points.Path and range: Fell from $201.03 to $195.34, then rebuilt toward $195.58; earlier lower highs at $204.11 and $203.12 show sellers leaning on rallies.Volume picture: Overall volume 44% below seven-day average; during the $200 breakdown, trades spiked to 2.56M (about 130% of the 24-hour average 1.02M).Capitulation check: Report notes a recovery from a $195.10 low, framing it as a capitulation-style dip that found bids.Stablecoin backdrop: Solana stablecoin market cap hit $16.25B on Oct. 14, up around 200% YTD from $5B, suggesting deeper DeFi liquidity.What the patterns mean Range with softer peaks: SOL is boxed between $194 and $203 while making slightly lower highs; that tells you rallies have been fading before clearing the prior top.Why the $200 slip mattered: Round numbers cluster orders; dropping under $200 helped trigger the 2.56M volume burst. Catching near $195 shows buyers still engage at nearby support.With volume below the seven-day average, conviction was muted, which helps explain the underperformance even with ETF headlines.Support vs. resistance: the mapSupport (floor): $194–$195 first; if it fails, the report flags $188–$180 as the next area.Resistance (ceiling): $196.50–$197.00 nearby; then the $200 round number; above that, $203.12.Targets and risk framingIf support holds: Room to revisit $196.50–$197.00, with a potential continuation toward $200. These are checkpoints, not promises.If support fails: $188–$180 are the next risk zones.Tactical lens: With consolidation and below-trend volume, many traders wait for a decisive break outside $194–$203 to judge momentum.Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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World Liberty Financial will distribute 8.4 million WLFI governance tokens to early participants in its USD1 points program.The program, launched two months ago, has driven over $500 million in trading activity, making USD1 the sixth-largest stablecoin.The rollout of tokens will occur across six exchanges, with eligibility determined by each platform.Read full story

XRP edged higher on Wednesday, advancing 0.60% to $2.623 as trading activity surged roughly 47% above its seven-day average. The uptick in volume suggests heightened institutional interest, though analysts caution that the rally may stall without stronger breakout catalysts. Despite bullish undercurrents, XRP continues to face stiff resistance after being rejected near the $2.68 mark, indicating that the latest push may evolve into a consolidation phase rather than a sustained breakout.

Throughout the session, XRP fluctuated within a narrow $0.11 range, trading between $2.62 and $2.64. Notably, a peak volume of around 167.3 million tokens—approximately 140% above the 24-hour average—was recorded during the failed breakout attempt at $2.68. The $2.60 psychological support level proved resilient, absorbing multiple retests and suggesting controlled accumulation. This pattern often signals that traders are positioning for a potential move, though conviction remains moderate.

From a technical standpoint, XRP’s rejection above $2.68 confirms firm resistance. The support zone near $2.60 remains intact, yet momentum indicators such as the TD Sequential have flashed caution signals, warning of possible near-term exhaustion. The token’s consolidation pattern between $2.60 and $2.67 may lay the groundwork for a stronger breakout later but also implies a short-term pause as traders await further confirmation.

For traders, maintaining focus on the $2.60–$2.63 support band is crucial. A sustained close above $2.65, accompanied by renewed volume inflows, could shift the outlook bullishly and open the path toward $2.70–$2.90. Conversely, slipping below $2.60 might trigger a pullback toward $2.55 or lower. With upcoming ETF decisions and institutional inflows expected to shape sentiment, XRP remains a token to watch closely in the coming sessions.

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BitMine adds 27,316 ETH worth $113 million to its crypto treasury.

Wed, 29/10/2025 - 8:25

Bitcoin erased a major part of the pressure we saw on the futures market, which could be a sign of an upcoming recovery.

Cover image via www.freepik.com

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With a violent fakeout between $111,000 and $117,000 wiping out a massive $240 million liquidation cluster, the recent price action of Bitcoin demonstrates yet another instance of market manipulation through leveraged overexposure. The market was shaken but significantly cleaner in terms of open interest and risk as a result of the move, which liquidated both late-entry shorts and overconfident longs. 

Bitcoin liquidity absorbedThe Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows where liquidity has been absorbed most recently. Large clusters were concentrated around $111,000 on the downside and $117,000 on the upside, which is exactly where the most recent Bitcoin fakeout took place. BTC fell into the lower band of liquidity following a severe rejection around $117,000, which caused cascading liquidations before swiftly rising again.

BTC/USDT Chart by TradingViewThis type of liquidity sweep, which eliminates both sides prior to a possible trend redefinition, is typical of an engineered stop hunt. Technically speaking, Bitcoin is currently trading between $113,000 and $114,000, slightly above its 200-day EMA, which is still a critical level for structural support. A short-term squeeze scenario that may determine the next directional move is being created by the 50-day and 100-day EMAs converging just above the price.

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Where is volatility concentrated?A neutral position is confirmed by the RSI near 50, which indicates that while momentum is balanced, volatility is still present. Now that there has been a significant liquidation reset, the market is in a better position. If spot buying pressure resumes, the system's fragility is eliminated by the decrease in leverage and open interest paving the way for a more stable advance. 

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The next target is still $120,000-$125,000, where the next liquidity pocket will form if Bitcoin can successfully recover $115,000-$116,000. On the other hand, if you cannot hold above $112,000, you might have to retest the $108,000 range. The $240 million liquidation purge for Bitcoin was essentially a much-needed cleanup.

Overleveraged traders suffered as a result of the fakeout, but the market's foundation was restored. Now that speculative excess has been eliminated, Bitcoin might be ready for a real move that is finally based on spot strength rather than volatility caused by leverage.

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Bitcoin's price behavior is sending loud signals amid an increasingly tenuous stock market.

Bitcoin (BTC 1.27%) has been one of the most impressive wealth-creating assets of all time.

The original cryptocurrency helped establish digital assets in the broader investment landscape, and it remains the most prominent cryptocurrency today with a market value of $2.3 trillion. Bitcoin's price has soared by more than 65% during the past year and by a staggering 740% during the past five years.

Yet, despite Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 nearly a year ago -- a magnificent milestone -- I predict that Bitcoin's price will sit below that level a year from now.

I'll detail why below.

Bitcoin isn't behaving like a risk-off asset
Many investors consider Bitcoin an anti-inflationary asset, akin to a digital version of gold. There is some merit to that, which I will reevaluate soon. For now, I want to call attention to Bitcoin's market price behavior.

Investors widely consider gold a risk-off asset, meaning they flock to it for safety. Society has valued gold for virtually forever, and it's a physical asset with a limited supply. When investors shy away from riskier assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, safer assets like gold become more popular.

Despite the multiple ways Bitcoin is similar to gold as an anti-inflationary asset, investors still treat it like a risky asset. As shown below, Bitcoin's price action tends to mimic the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index. At the same time, gold, the traditional safe asset, has shown far greater price resilience via less price volatility:

Bitcoin Price data by YCharts

What could this mean? Theoretically, both gold and Bitcoin have thrived this year due to their anti-inflationary traits. The continued value erosion of fiat currency (inflation) has driven their fiat currency-denominated prices higher. However, Bitcoin doesn't necessarily offer the same price stability that gold has shown in recent years.

Pressure is building on a hot stock market
Therefore, if stocks fall, Bitcoin will likely follow them lower.

Now, nobody should be in the business of predicting when the stock market might go up or down, myself included. However, it does seem fair to point out that pressures are mounting that could affect a broader stock market that currently trades at pretty expensive valuations.

Today's Change

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In these situations, a catalyst -- a metaphorical pinprick -- can let the air out of the balloon.

There is no shortage of those:

Tariff threats and trade wars loom large over the global economy.
The U.S. government has shut down with no end in sight.
Continued inflation is weighing on consumer spending, the engine that drives America's economy.

The technology sector has boomed on artificial intelligence (AI) investments, but that is unlikely to continue forever. How much future growth do those stocks reflect at their current prices? That's not to say that AI is a fluke, but things don't typically play out in a straight line.

The internet ignited stock market euphoria nearly 30 years ago. The web has revolutionized the global economy and society, but not without a severe market decline and multiple recessions.

That doesn't mean Bitcoin's future isn't bright
If the market does tumble, Bitcoin's likely plunge wouldn't be the first time. Most people familiar with Bitcoin already know that the cryptocurrency has experienced severe declines throughout its history, sometimes dropping by more than 60% from its highs:

Bitcoin Price data by YCharts

Bitcoin may not be as stable as gold to hold, but its track record as an investment is still stunningly good. Decades of lax monetary policy suggest that inflation will likely persist, which should keep anti-inflationary assets, including Bitcoin, headed higher over the long term.

Bitcoin currently trades about 10% above that $100,000 threshold. If the stock market breaks down over the next year, it seems likely that Bitcoin would tumble enough to drag its price back to a five-figure level.

So, while Bitcoin has a bright future, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see it trading below $100,000 a year from now.