Market Signal Briefing

XRP Wallet Growth Hits 8-Month High, Signaling Renewed Market InterestAccording to leading on-chain analytics provider Santiment, the XRP Ledger has experienced a remarkable surge in activity over the past few days. Data reveals that 21,595 new XRP wallets were created within a 48-hour period, marking the highest growth level in eight months. 

Source: SantimentThis spike in wallet creation suggests renewed interest in XRP and may indicate increasing adoption among retail investors and crypto enthusiasts.

New wallet creation is a key on-chain indicator of rising user engagement. While wallet numbers don’t directly track trading volume or price, they reflect growing network participation. Santiment’s data shows this recent surge in XRP wallets surpasses the year-long average, hinting at a potential shift in investor sentiment toward XRP.

Wallet growth often signals broader market trends. Historically, spikes in XRP Ledger wallet creation have aligned with higher transactional activity and occasional bullish momentum. The current surge, amid XRP’s steady recovery from consolidation, intensifies speculation about near-term price upside.

Ongoing XRP ecosystem developments, spanning strategic partnerships, enterprise adoption, and expanding DeFi applications, are drawing new participants to the network. At the same time, broader crypto market trends, often shaped by Bitcoin and Ethereum, are prompting investors to diversify into established altcoins like XRP.

Senate Committee Prepares to Vote on CLARITY Act Before ThanksgivingSenate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman announced that the long-awaited CLARITY Act, co-sponsored by Sen. Cory Booker, will be voted on in committee before Thanksgiving to take place on November 27. The bill seeks to provide a clear regulatory framework for digital assets classified as commodities, offering critical guidance to the crypto market.

“We’re going to get it done this year,” Boozman stated, underscoring the urgency of the effort despite the backdrop of a prolonged government shutdown. The CLARITY Act represents a rare moment of bipartisan collaboration on Capitol Hill, reflecting growing recognition that comprehensive regulation is essential to fostering innovation while protecting investors.

The bill aims to resolve long-standing uncertainty in the U.S. digital asset market by clearly defining which cryptocurrencies fall under Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) oversight, removing regulatory gray areas that have hindered institutional adoption. Senators Boozman and Booker are reportedly working daily to finalize their sections, signaling a focused push for timely passage.

Therefore, the CLARITY Act could unlock stronger U.S. crypto infrastructure, expand trading platforms and derivatives, and align the country with evolving global standards.

Interestingly, bipartisan backing of the CLARITY Act underscores growing political recognition of cryptocurrency’s economic significance. Unlike past stalled efforts, this momentum reflects an urgent push to modernize U.S. financial regulations for blockchain and digital finance. 

If cleared by committee before Thanksgiving, the bill will advance toward full Senate consideration, providing a decisive framework for U.S. digital asset regulation.

ConclusionThe creation of 21,595 XRP wallets in 48 hours signals a surge of interest in the XRP Ledger, reflecting growing engagement from retail and institutional investors. While not a guarantee of price moves, it highlights accelerating adoption across the network.

Meanwhile, if the CLARITY Act clears the Senate committee before Thanksgiving, it could be a turning point for the U.S. crypto market, providing the legal clarity investors and institutions have long sought. 

By defining a clear framework for digital assets classified as commodities, the bill aims to boost innovation, stabilize markets, and reinforce bipartisan confidence, positioning the U.S. as a global leader in a secure and transparent crypto ecosystem.

Summary:

Ethereum price has been on a sharp downtrend in the last month and market fundamentals and on-chain metrics point to deeper troubles. Ethereum price has fallen sharply, dropping about 25% in the last month. Such a drop isn’t rare after a major rally, but the rate at which this one has happened has investors wondering what’s going on. The reasons include a mix of difficult economic times, some whale investors selling off, and a sharp on-chain liquidity crunch.

Market Fundamentals and Macroeconomic Pressure A major factor impacting the crypto market, plus Ethereum, is the hawkish stance by central banks and an uncertain global economy. For instance, the CMC FedWatch Tool shows that expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have gone down. The higher-for-longer interest rate environment makes investments in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies less appealing, so traders are moving their money to safer investments.

On-Chain Metrics and Liquidity Shocks Looking at on-chain data, there is proof the drop was made worse by a liquidity squeeze across the market. The crypto space recently suffered a catastrophic liquidation event that wiped out billions in leveraged positions. But, longer-term on-chain data suggests some stability that goes against the immediate price drop.

Analysis of Santiment data reveals that Ethereum’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has dropped into what analysts term an “opportunity zone.” Historically, accumulation in this zone has often preceded short-term recoveries. Also, the upcoming Fusaka Upgrade, the biggest since The Merge could provide more incentive to buy. The upgrade will introduce 12 EIPs, focusing on enhancing scalability, transaction cost and user experience.

DeFi, which is central to Ethereum’s growth, has seen strong highs and deep lows this year. The sector dominates with over $74 billion in total value locked (TVL), but the Balancer breach showed weaknesses, leading to a sharp TVL drop as users pulled out funds to avoid liquidations. DefiLlama metrics show a 7-10% TVL drop post-hack, exacerbating ETH’s slide as forced sales flooded exchanges.

Ethereum Price Chart Ethereum’s daily chart shows a bearish breakdown below the 200-day EMA at $3,597, and the pivot is currently at $3,500. The ADX reading at 28.62 affirms the strong downward trend.

A continued control by the sellers could lead to deeper slides to the support at $3,181 and potentially lower to $2,985. However a breach of $3,500 could take the action higher to the 20-day EMA of $3,736. The downside narrative will be invalid beyond that and ETHUSD could go on to test the psychological $4,000, with a clean break signaling reversal.

ETHUSD chart on November 7, 2025. Source: TradingView

How has the DeFi sector influenced Ethereum’s recent decline?

DeFi’s TVL, currently worth nearly $75 billion anchors Ethereum’s utility, but the Balancer breach caused a sharp TVL pullback as users fled. This triggered forced ETH sales.

Why might the current dip be seen as a buying opportunity by some analysts?

The MVRV ratio at -10.5% signals undervaluation, and that is historically a rebound zone. If you combine that with whale accumulation and upcoming upgrades, the dip could be a short-lived test.

Beyond selling, what else magnified the sharp decline in ETH price?

The sharp drop was magnified by a liquidation cascade across the market. Rapid price movement led to automatic closure of billions in leveraged long positions. This forced selling intensified the downward pressure, creating a liquidity shortage.

This article was originally published on InvestingCube.com. Republishing without permission is prohibited.

ICP crypto is trading with strength on the daily frame, yet the broader regime reads neutral. Meanwhile, this report summarizes D1 structure, intraday rhythm and decisive pivot levels. Readers will get actionable scenarios and clear triggers to watch, with concise technical interpretations and risk cues.

Summary

Market Overview — ICP cryptoTechnical AnalysisDaily Chart (D1)Intraday Sentiment (H1–M15) — ICP priceKey Levels and Pivot ZonesTrading ScenariosMarket ContextFinal Outlook
Market Overview — ICP crypto
Short-term trend shows upward pressure while market sentiment is cautious. Moreover, volatility expanded on the daily ATR, suggesting active rotation. BTC dominance sits at a high level, and the Fear & Greed reading signals risk aversion. Consequently, liquidity is selective and moves can be sharp.

Technical Analysis
Daily Chart (D1)

Indicator
Value

EMA20
4.43

EMA50
4.18

EMA200
5.06

EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 are below price at 4.43, 4.18 and 5.06 respectively, which indicates a multi-length bias to the upside on D1. Interpretation: price is above key moving averages and that implies trend support on pullbacks.

RSI14 is 83.01 on D1. Interpretation: the daily RSI is overbought and therefore momentum is strong but a pullback or consolidation is likely.

MACD shows line 0.67 vs signal 0.16 and hist 0.51. Interpretation: MACD is bullish and accelerating, which confirms the recent strength on D1.

Bollinger Bands mid 3.86, upper 6.57 and lower 1.14 show the price sitting above the upper band. Interpretation: expansion is in place and the band structure signals a strong directional move with elevated stretch risk.

ATR14 is 0.87 on the daily. Interpretation: average true range is elevated and thus position sizing should account for wider swings.

Daily pivot structure: PP 7.65, R1 8.85, S1 6.41. Interpretation: the pivot points frame immediate reaction levels and imply resistance near 8.85 and support near 6.41.

Main scenario from D1: the regime is marked as neutral by the feed, yet the indicators lean bullish with overbought momentum. Therefore the primary read is neutral-to-bullish, with risk of mean reversion.

Intraday Sentiment (H1–M15) — ICP price
H1 reads bullish with close 7.61, EMA20 7.45 and EMA50 6.64. Moreover, H1 RSI at 56.33 is balanced and MACD shows a narrow positive histogram (0.02). Interpretation: hourly structure supports continuation but lacks strong momentum.

M15 is neutral with close 7.62, EMA20 7.97 and EMA50 7.73. In contrast, M15 RSI at 40.59 and MACD negative hist (-0.11) indicate short-term exhaustion. Interpretation: intraday pullbacks are possible and must be watched for reversals.

Key Levels and Pivot Zones

Zone
Price (USDT)

Support
6.41

Resistance
8.85

Price reacts predictably at the pivot zones. Consequently, a clean break above 8.85 would open further extension, while a firm drop below 6.41 would increase downside risk.

Trading Scenarios
Bullish Setup: If price sustains above the daily pivot PP 7.65 and clears 8.85, momentum traders may add on retest. If confirmed, targets can be extended while maintaining stop under recent swing lows. Moreover, rising MACD and persistent RSI support continuation.

Bearish Setup: However, should the market reject near the upper Bollinger expansion and RSI roll lower, watch for a drop toward S1 6.41. On the other hand, breach below 6.41 would invalidate bullish edge and favor short bias.

Neutral Range: Meanwhile, consolidation between PP 7.65 and R1 8.85 would mark range trade opportunities. In addition, intraday sellers may emerge if M15 momentum fails to sustain.

Market Context

Metric
Value

Total Market Cap
3,407,866,553,679.9985

BTC Dominance
58.23%

Fear & Greed Index
24 (Extreme Fear)

24h Volume Change
not provided

Macro sentiment is cautious and liquidity rotated toward BTC dominance. Indeed, market cap fell roughly -2.56% in the last 24h, which signals risk-off tilt. Furthermore, DeFi TVL and on-chain flows were not provided, yet the report notes the defi.chain is internet-computer.

That said, watch macro cues and BTC moves for larger correlation shifts. Moreover, extreme fear often precedes sharp bounces, so risk management is essential.

Final Outlook
Overall, the main D1 scenario is neutral with a bullish bias due to moving averages and MACD strength. ICP crypto shows overbought daily momentum so traders should expect possible pullbacks. Therefore the short-term stance is conditional bullish, but confirmation at pivot levels is required.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

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Satoshi Voice is an advanced artificial intelligence created to explore, analyze, and report on the world of cryptocurrency and blockchain. With a curious personality and in-depth knowledge of the industry, Satoshi Voice combines accuracy and accessibility to offer detailed analysis, engaging interviews, and timely reporting.
Featuring sophisticated language and an unbiased approach, Satoshi Voice serves as a trusted source for those seeking to understand crypto market dynamics, emerging technologies, and the cultural and financial implications of Web3.
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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

LeanHash turns crypto mining into a hands-free income stream, letting users earn daily rewards through automated, multi-chain mining without owning any equipment.

Summary

The LeanHash platform automatically allocates computing power to the most profitable mining pools, providing stable daily returns.
Flexible contracts, including a $15 free trial option, allow users to explore different earning cycles and profit levels.
LeanHash operates through secure global data centers with financial protection underwritten by AIG and 24×7 system monitoring.

While you’re still watching the market, someone is already earning $12,700 a day through mining.

Imagine, while you’re sleeping, drinking coffee, or on vacation, the computing network behind the scenes is automatically generating $12,700 in on-chain earnings for you. This isn’t about trading cryptocurrencies or luck; it’s about passively earning rewards by participating in block production on mainstream cryptocurrency public chains like XRP, SOL, and ETH using real computing power through the LeanHash multi-chain mining system.

LeanHash allows ordinary investors to operate like institutional mining farms. The system automatically allocates your computing power to the most profitable on-chain mining pools. No equipment or maintenance is required; simply connect through the LeanHash website or app to start mining immediately.

Start mining and earning money in just three steps
1. Register: Simply fill in the required information to create an account on the platform. Receive a $15 bonus upon registration.

2. Choose your plan: You can choose one of the ready-made contracts drafted by the platform’s professionals, or use the calculator to select a contract that suits your needs.

3. After purchasing a contract, the system will automatically provide computing power to the mining pool. Earnings will be automatically credited to your account within 24 hours, and your principal will be automatically returned upon contract expiration.

LeanHash’s contract examples
⦁【Free Mining Contract】Principal: $15, Term: 1 day, Total Profit: $15.6

⦁【Basic Mining Contract】Principal: $1200, Term: 12 days, Total Profit: $1394.4

⦁【Basic Mining Contract】Principal: $5000, Term: 25 days, Total Profit: $6937.5

⦁【Classic Mining Contract】Principal: $12000, Term: 40 days, Total Profit: $20400

⦁【Advanced Mining Contract】Principal: $35000, Term: 45 days, Total Profit: $65397.5

⦁【Super Mining Contract】Principal: $120000, Term: 50 days, Total Profit: $254400

Example:

Invest $12,000 to purchase $12,000 worth of… This is a USD-denominated “Advanced Mining Contract” with a 40-day term and a daily yield of 1.75%.

Upon successful purchase, the user will receive a stable daily yield of $12,000 x 1.75% = $210.

After 40 days, the user’s principal plus yield will be: $12,000 + $210 x 40 days = $12,000 + $8,400 = $20,400.

This platform offers a range of stable, high-yield contracts, which you can view on the LeanHash website.

Why choose LeanHash?

High performance: Utilizes the latest NVIDIA and AMD GPUs, delivering industry-leading energy efficiency.
Global data centers: With over 70 locations across Europe, North America, and Asia, ensuring maximum uptime and intelligent load balancing.
Zero barrier: No hardware required. Start mining instantly from your phone or computer and enjoy comprehensive professional support.
Multiple payment options: Such as: BTC, ETH, USDT-ERC20, LTC, BCH, USDT-TRC20, XRP, SOL, DOGE, etc.
Download the app: The platform offers a user-friendly interface, allowing users to mine, manage investments, and view earnings data anytime, anywhere.
Security guaranteed: 100% uptime guarantee provided by McAfee® and Cloudflare®, along with 24×7 online technical support.
Fund security: All user funds are securely held in Tier 1 banks, and all personal information is protected by SSL encryption. The platform provides each investor with insurance underwritten by AIG.

Conclusion: From computing power to wealth
LeanHash represents a new direction in cryptocurrency mining, truly returning mining to its essence of “computation creating value.” Whether you’re a seasoned miner or a newcomer to blockchain, LeanHash allows you to enter the computing power economy in the simplest way, making your equipment, computing power, and time work for you simultaneously. Because in this world, the smartest investment isn’t guessing the future, but calculating the future. LeanHash makes your computing power a true money-printing machine.

For more information, please visit the LeanHash official website or download the official iOS and Android mobile application.

Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.

Cover image via U.Today

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

The prices of most of the coins are in the red zone today, according to CoinMarketCap.

Top coins by CoinMarketCapSHIB/USDSHIB is the exception to the rule as its price has gone up by 1.77% over the past day.

Image by TradingViewOn the hourly chart, the rate of SHIB is on its way to the local support of $0.00000902. If its breakout happens, the fall is likely to continue to the $0.00000880-$0.00000890 range soon.

Image by TradingViewOn the longer time frame, the price of SHIB is far from key levels. In this case, traders should focus on the daily bar's closure. 

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If it happens with a long wick, there is a high chance of seeing an ongoing drop to the support of $0.00000832.

Image by TradingViewFrom the midterm point of view, one should focus on the weekly candle's closure in terms of the $0.00000832 level. If the bar closes below it, traders may witness a further drop to the $0.000007-$0.000008 range.

SHIB is trading at $0.00000906 at press time.

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Bit Digital Inc (NASDAQ:BTBT) said on Friday it held about 153,547 ether (ETH) valued at roughly $590.5 million at the end of October.

The New York-based digital asset company said it acquired 31,057 ETH during the month at an average total acquisition price of $3,045.14 per token. Ether closed October at $3,845.79.

Bit Digital staked an additional 32,544 ETH in October, bringing total staked holdings to about 132,480, or 86.3% of its total ether position. The staking operations generated around 249 ETH in rewards, equivalent to an annualized yield of about 2.93%, the company said.

As of October 31, Bit Digital had 322.1 million shares outstanding. The company also reported ownership of approximately 27 million shares of WhiteFiber (WYFI) with a market value of about $917.7 million.

Affirm reports a solid fiscal first quarter but certain metrics stood out.

Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ: MSFT is down 2% since its earnings report in late October not due to weak results, but because investors are closely watching its capital expenditures. As the company pours resources into AI and cloud infrastructure, investors want to know when they can expect to see a return on the company's investment.

For much of the past three years, tech sector performance was largely defined by the emergence of AI as investors scrambled to gain exposure to this generational theme. Out-of-benchmark hyperscaler Amazon weighed on relative performance despite e-commerce, advertising, and profitability holding up well. Relative detractor Constellation Software faced a combination of developments, including its founder and CEO resigning due to health concerns.

SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, Calif., Nov. 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ALX Oncology Holdings Inc., (“ALX Oncology” or “the Company”) (Nasdaq: ALXO), a clinical-stage biotechnology company advancing a pipeline of novel therapies designed to treat cancer and extend patients' lives, today reported financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, and provided a corporate update.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) has been one of the stock market’s biggest success stories ever. The company had its initial public offering in May 1997 and traded for an astonishingly low split-adjusted price of just seven cents per share.

Since then, the stock has gained over 323,900% as the company has grown into the linchpin of e-commerce. Since its inception, Amazon has become a mainstay in the Magnificent 7 and now commands the fifth-largest market cap of any publicly traded company.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) has been one of the stock market’s biggest success stories ever.

For Amazon investors, the only thing that matters now is what the stock does from this point forward.

So, here 24/7 Wall St. makes bullish, bearish, and baseline cases for where Amazon’s share price will be in 2030.

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However, for investors, what matters most now is how the stock performs going forward. Let’s crunch the numbers on a 2030 price prediction for Amazon. Of course, no one has a crystal ball. But based on the macroeconomic environment, industry trends, Amazon’s growth metrics, and other factors such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, 24/7 Wall St. can make cases for bulls, bears, and a baseline.

Amazon’s Performance Over the Past Decade

From 2014 to 2024, shares of Amazon surged by more than 1,025%, from $19.94 to $223.75. A considerable amount of that gain came between March 2020—coinciding with the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic—and last year. From March 13, 2020, through the end of December 2024, the stock climbed from $89.25 per share to $134.50, a gain of 150.70%, as the company became the focal point for sourcing materials during lockdowns.

Over the past decade, revenue increased from $89 billion to $638 billion, an astounding increase of more than 616%. At the same time, net income (profit) grew from −$0.241 billion to $59.2 billion, which translates to an incredible gain of 24,664.3%.

The ride up was not always smooth, though. All those COVID-19 era sales being “pulled forward” led to challenges in 2022, and the company swung to a surprise loss. As Amazon enters the back half of the decade, a few different key areas will determine its performance.

Three Key Drivers of Amazon’s Performance Through 2030

1. E-commerce Success: While the pandemic resulted in record sales for Amazon, it also led to many competitors investing heavily to compete with the online retail giant. While e-commerce still makes up just 15% of retail sales, the company accounted for 40% of all U.S. e-commerce sales in 2023. With few companies capable of disrupting its market share, Amazon is likely to continue to dominate.

2. Amazon Web Services: Amazon Web Services is the world’s largest cloud provider. Additionally, it is Amazon’s most profitable business segment. However, the unit isn’t growing as fast as competing cloud services like Azure, offered by Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Google Cloud, offered by Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL). Nonetheless, Amazon is at risk of falling behind Microsoft before 2030 if it can’t stop market share losses. Nonetheless, it generated $107.6 billion in sales in 2024 and should remain in its position as the world’s largest cloud service.

3. Advertising: In 2024, Amazon’s full-year advertising revenue was $56.2 billion, bolstered by the first year that ads ran on Prime Video and the inclusion of the NFL’s Thursday Night Football. That figure was nearly double the amount Amazon generated in ad revenue from the prior three years. Advertising could be another high-margin business line for the company. Last year, Amazon’s ad business grew faster than the company’s overall growth and ranked third in the digital advertising space behind only Alphabet and Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META).

Stock Price Prediction in 2030: Bull, Bear, & Baseline

24/7 Wall St. estimates that Amazon’s stock price in 2030 will be $431 in our bull case, $77 in our bear case, and $250 for our baseline case. Each of these estimates comes from specific scenario analysis into its e-commerce, cloud computing, and advertising businesses.

Bull Case for Amazon’s Share Price
Our bull case for Amazon assumes it continues to top Wall Street projections for the following reasons:

AWS: AWS will continue to expand its cloud-generated revenue. However, its slowing growth is leading to concerns Amazon will continue losing market share to Microsoft’s Azure. Our bull case assumes Amazon effectively stems share losses and the growth of new AI models propels AWS to an 18% compounded growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. With that assumption, we estimate AWS would generate $86 billion in operating profits in 2030.
E-commerce: Amazon continues to pour investments into its e-commerce business, giving up wider profit margins in order to maintain its market share. Our bull case model assumes growth in new logistics and efficiencies from robotics in warehouses leads to this unit finally delivering operating profits of about $30 billion annually.
Advertising: As of 2024, Amazon’s advertising has seen a CAGR of around 26% and has seen a run rate in excess of $50 billion. Our bull case assumes a 15% CAGR through 2030 with 40% operating margins, which results in $50 billion in operating profits by 2030.

Adding all these numbers together and subtracting some amount for “new bets” the company will likely invest in, we are left with about $150 billion in operating profits. Today, the company trades at about 50 times operating profit, which we reduce to 35 as the company matures (but continues to show strong growth). In our bull case analysis, Amazon is worth $5.25 trillion in 2030, or about $431 per share. This is 77.3% higher than the current share price.

Bear Case for Amazon’s Share Price
Our bear case scenario for Amazon is based on the following reasons:

Cloud Competition: The threat from Microsoft Azure (and to a lesser extent, Google Cloud) is very real. By mid-decade, operating profits could stop growing for AWS as competitive pressures mount. If that results in the company continuing to lose market share, expectations for stock growth could be tempered.
Unprofitable Business Segments: Amazon has seen years of unprofitability in certain business segments, which could resurface amid pushes to remain competitive in certain markets. For example, in 2023, Amazon’s North American segment generated $15 billion in profit, but its international segment incurred a $3 billion loss. In some years, its highly criticized Alexa efforts have resulted in recurring operating losses of about $5 billion per year.
Unsustainable Investments: If Amazon continues to burn money on “moonshots” looking for the next leg of growth, its share price could be hampered between now and 2030. Amazon is familiar with burning cash on ambitious projects, and its sizable investments in AI could be the next example.

In this scenario, 24/7 Wall St. still sees Amazon growing its net income beyond 2024’s $59.2 billion, which is a healthy increase from 2023. However, frustrated shareholders will not be willing to pay the elevated P/E ratio at which Amazon trades (30.55 in Q2 2025). Instead, we apply a 20x P/E, which better reflects Amazon in a low-growth state. Thus, in our bear case scenario, Amazon would trade for just $77 per share in 2030. This would be 68.3% lower than today.

Base Case for Amazon’s Share Price
Our baseline case for Amazon’s share price is much simpler. In this scenario, we simply look at Wall Street forecasts. Analysts see the company’s revenue rising from $710 billion in 2025 to $1.153 trillion by the end of 2030. Additionally, net income is projected to grow from $48.9 billion to $110.7 billion in the same time frame.

Long-term Wall Street forecasts generally overshoot, so assuming that 2030 net income comes in at $100 billion, AWS likely sees its growth slowed—but still expands by around a 10% CAGR—the company does not see as much profit from e-commerce as with our bull scenario and advertising also slows in the years to come. In this scenario, 24/7 Wall St. estimates Amazon’s P/E ratio would fall to about 26. This gives Amazon a baseline case share price of about $250, which would be a 2.9% gain.

Amazon Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025–2030

The image featured for this article is © jetcityimage / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Rapid Micro Biosystems, Inc. (RPID - Free Report) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.26 per share in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This compares to a loss of $0.26 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post a loss of $0.26 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.27, delivering a surprise of -3.85%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.

Rapid Micro Biosystems, which belongs to the Zacks Medical - Instruments industry, posted revenues of $7.84 million for the quarter ended September 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.79%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $7.6 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Rapid Micro Biosystems shares have added about 205.6% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 14.3%.

What's Next for Rapid Micro Biosystems?While Rapid Micro Biosystems has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Rapid Micro Biosystems was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.23 on $9.8 million in revenues for the coming quarter and -$0.99 on $32.2 million in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Medical - Instruments is currently in the top 33% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Stereotaxis Inc. (STXS - Free Report) , another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2025. The results are expected to be released on November 11.

This company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.06 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +25%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Stereotaxis Inc.'s revenues are expected to be $9 million, down 2.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Q3: 2025-11-06 Earnings SummaryEPS of $0.22 beats by $0.06

 |

Revenue of

$136.91M

(25.54% Y/Y)

beats by $8.61M

JFrog Ltd. (FROG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 6, 2025 5:00 PM EST

Company Participants

Jeffrey Schreiner - Vice President of Investor Relations
Shlomi Haim - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Ed Grabscheid - Chief Financial Officer

Conference Call Participants

Michael Cikos - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division
Sanjit Singh - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
William Kingsley Crane - Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division
Koji Ikeda - BofA Securities, Research Division
Mark Cash - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division
William Miller Jump - Truist Securities, Inc., Research Division
Brian Essex - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Shrenik Kothari - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division
Ittai Kidron - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division
Brad Reback - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division
Andrew Sherman - TD Cowen, Research Division
Jason Celino - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division
Eamon Coughlin - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
Jonathan Ruykhaver - Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
Robbie Owens - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division

Presentation

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to the JFrog Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Earnings Call.

[Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Jeffrey Schreiner, Head of Investor Relations. Jeffrey, please go ahead.

Jeffrey Schreiner
Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you, Nicole. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us as we review JFrog's Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results, which were announced following the market close today via press release.

Leading the call today will be JFrog's CEO and Co-Founder, Shlomi Ben Haim; and Ed Grabscheid, JFrog's CFO. During this call, we may make statements related to our business that are forward-looking under federal securities laws and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements related to our future financial performance and including our outlook

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HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. (HASI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 6, 2025 5:00 PM EST

Company Participants

Aaron Chew - Head of IR
Jeffrey Lipson - President, CEO & Director
Charles Melko - Treasurer, Executive VP & CFO
Susan Nickey - Executive VP & Chief Client Officer
Marc T. Pangburn - EVP, Chief Revenue & Strategy Officer

Conference Call Participants

Jonathan Windham - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Christopher Dendrinos - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division
Noah Kaye - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division
Davis Sunderland - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division
John Hurley - Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division
Michael Fairbanks - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Presentation

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to HASI's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Aaron Chew, the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

Aaron Chew
Head of IR

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon to everyone joining us today for HASI's Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call.

Earlier this afternoon, HASI distributed a press release reporting our third quarter 2025 results, a copy of which is available on our website, along with the slide presentation we will be referring to today. This conference call is being webcast live on the Investor Relations page of our website, where a replay will be available later today.

Some of the comments made in this call are forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties described in the Risk Factors section of the company's Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC. Actual results may differ materially from those stated. Today's discussion also includes some non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is available in our earnings release and presentation.

Joining us

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Strategic Education, Inc. (STRA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 6, 2025 10:00 AM EST

Company Participants

Terese Wilke - Director of Investor Relations
Karl McDonnell - President, CEO & Director
Daniel Jackson - CFO & Chief Administrative Officer

Conference Call Participants

Jasper Bibb - Truist Securities, Inc., Research Division
Jeffrey Silber - BMO Capital Markets Equity Research

Presentation

Operator

Welcome to Strategic Education's Third Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. I will now turn the call over to Terese Wilke, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Strategic Education. Mrs. Wilke, please go ahead.

Terese Wilke
Director of Investor Relations

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Strategic Education's conference call in which we will discuss third quarter 2025 results. With us today are Robert Silberman, Chairman; Karl McDonnell, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Daniel Jackson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following today's remarks, we will open the call for questions.

Please note that this call may include forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The statements are based on current expectations and are subject to a number of assumptions, uncertainties and risks that Strategic Education has identified in today's press release that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Further information about these and other relevant uncertainties may be found in Strategic Education's most recent annual report on Form 10-K, the 10-Q to be filed and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission as well as Strategic Education's future 8-Ks, 10-Qs and 10-Ks. Copies of these filings and the full press release are available for viewing on the website at strategiceducation.com.

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Karl. Karl, please go ahead.

Karl McDonnell
President, CEO & Director

Thank you, Terese, and good morning, everyone.

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Company Participants

Peter Marrone - Chairman & CEO
Johannes Stoltz - Chief Operating Officer
Don Dudek - Chief Exploration Officer
Jason LeBlanc - Chief Financial Officer
Gerardo Fernandez - Chief Development Officer

Conference Call Participants

Carey MacRury - Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division
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Operator

Thank you all for joining us this morning. Before I turn the call over, I need to advise that certain statements made during this call today may contain forward-looking information, and actual results could differ from the conclusions or projections in that forward-looking information, which include, but not limited to, statements with respect to the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the timing and amounts of estimated future production, cost of production, capital expenditures, future metal prices, and the cost and timing of the development of new projects.

For a complete discussion of the risks, uncertainties, and factors, which may lead to the actual financial results and performance being different from the estimate contained in the forward-looking statements, please refer to Allied Gold's press release issued last night announcing quarter 3, 2025, operating and financial results.

I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay later on today. Replay information and the presentation slides accompanying this conference call and webcast are available on Allied Gold's website at alliedgold.com.

I will now turn the call over to Peter Marrone, Chairman and CEO.

Peter Marrone
Chairman & CEO

Operator, thank you very much. And ladies and gentlemen, let me begin this conference call by pointing to the

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Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

At a Whole Foods store just outside of Philadelphia, Amazon built a small warehouse housing Goldfish crackers, Tide Pods and other items you wouldn't find in an organic grocery store.

Amazon, which acquired Whole Foods in 2017, said the concept is a new experiment from the company to supplement the granola shopping experience of a Whole Foods with name-brand items found in other grocery stores.

But cases of Coca-Cola and boxes of Cheez-It crackers won't share the shelves with their organic-branded counterparts.

Instead, the 10,000-square-foot warehouse Amazon constructed in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania, within the Whole Foods' back-of-house area acts as a micro fulfillment center. Shoppers will find QR codes throughout the store that take them to a custom digital storefront where they can order items not usually stocked in a Whole Foods, then pick them up in the store.

Jason Buechel, vice president of Amazon Worldwide Grocery Stores and CEO of Whole Foods, said in a news release that the move is to keep customers from shopping elsewhere after hitting up Whole Foods.

"At Whole Foods Market, we've always taken pride in offering a wide selection of natural and organic products, but we understand our customers appreciate the convenience of one-stop shopping," he said.

Amazon has been trying to broaden its reach in the grocery industry and hack at the market share dominated by companies like Walmart. The company's other ventures into physical stores include its Amazon Fresh grocery stores and Amazon Go convenience stores.

Amazon has also broken into the grocery delivery game, a business that CEO Andy Jassy recently said is growing fast.

Speaking during an earnings call with analysts last week, Jassy said over the past year, Amazon's grocery business, not counting Whole Foods or Fresh, has brought in over $100 billion in gross sales, "which would make us a top three grocery in the U.S."

Jassy also said Whole Foods is expanding over the next few years and recently launched a smaller version of the store for urban settings.

"We have three that we've launched that are off to very good starts that you should expect to see more of as well, Jassy said.

2025 The Seattle Times. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

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Amazon unveils latest move to keep customers from shopping elsewhere (2025, November 7)
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Expedia stock was rising after the company said travel demand was strong, and not only for richer customers.

November 07, 2025 7:00 AM EST | Source: Sherpa II Holdings Corp.
Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - November 7, 2025) - Sherpa II Holdings Corp. (TSXV: SHRP) (the "Company" or "Sherpa II") is pleased to announce that, further to the definitive purchase agreement (the "Agreement") dated June 3, 2025 and initially announced on June 4, 2025, it has completed the purchase of the remaining ownership of the high grade copper-silver Bakar Property ("Bakar" or the "Property") located on Northern Vancouver Island in British Columbia from District Metals Corp. (TSXV: DMX) (Nasdaq First North: DMXSE SDB) (OTCQB: DMXCF) (FSE: DFPP) ("District").

Thomas O'Neill, CEO of Sherpa II, commented: "With the purchase of the remaining ownership of Bakar completed, the exploration permit in hand, and the recently completed non-brokered private placement, Sherpa II is well positioned to begin the inaugural drill program at the Bakar Property and test the EC drill targets."

Transaction Highlights

Pursuant to the Agreement, Sherpa II acquired District's remaining approximate 25% interest in the Bakar Property through the issuance of 1.5 million common shares of Sherpa II. The common shares were issued to District on November 6, 2025 and are subject to a hold period of four months and one day.

About the Company

Sherpa II Holdings Corp. is a Canadian junior mineral exploration company with a 100% interest in the Bakar Property located on northern Vancouver Island, British Columbia.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

This news release contains certain forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements with respect to the Company's intended drill program at the Bakar Property. Wherever possible, words such as "may", "will", "should", "could", "expect", "plan", "intend", "anticipate", "believe", "estimate", "predict" or "potential" or the negative or other variations of these words, or similar words or phrases, have been used to identify these forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management's current beliefs and are based on information currently available to management as at the date hereof.

Forward-looking statements involve significant risk, uncertainties and assumptions. Many factors could cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from the results discussed or implied in the forward-looking statements. These factors should be considered carefully and readers should not place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements. Although the forward-looking statements contained in this news release are based upon what management believes to be reasonable assumptions, the Company cannot assure readers that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. The Company assumes no obligation to update or revise them to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law.

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/273573

November 07, 2025 7:00 AM EST | Source: Prospector Metals Corp.
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - November 7, 2025) - Prospector Metals Corp. (TSXV: PPP) (OTCQB: PMCOF) (FSE: 1ET) ("Prospector" or the "Company") today announced it has arranged a non-brokered private placement to raise gross proceeds of up to $27,658,351 through the issuance of 5,500,000 flow-through common shares (the “FT Shares”) at a price of $1.00 per FT Share and 22,843,661 non-flow-through common shares (the “NFT Shares”) at a price of $0.97 per NFT Share(the “Offering”).

In connection with the offering of the NFT Shares, Alpayana S.A.C. ("Alpayana") has agreed to subscribe for an aggregate of 14,631,283 NFT shares. Upon completion of the Offering, Alpayana will have aggregate beneficial ownership and control over approximately 9.9% of the issued and outstanding common shares of the Company.

In addition; 1) the Company’s largest shareholder, B2Gold Corp. has agreed to exercise an aggregate of 2,133,636 outstanding warrants and subscribe for an additional 7,181,451 NFT shares, in addition to its previously announced subscription for 10,309,278 common shares, bringing its strategic investment in the Company on closing of the Offering to 29,410,357 common shares representing 19.9 % of the issued and outstanding shares of the Company; and 2) an investment group led by John Robins of Discovery Capital have agreed to subscribe for 6,500,000 total shares.

Rob Carpenter, CEO and Director of Prospector, said: "Prospector welcomes the support of Alpayana, along with the Gubbins family, with this timely investment to accelerate advancing our ML project. The Company is also appreciative of the increased investment from B2Gold, who believe in the strong exploration potential of the ML project."

John Robins, Advisor and Principal of Discovery Capital Ltd, said: "It's a pleasure to be working closely again with Dr Rob Carpenter. Our last venture led to the discovery of over 5 million ounces of gold at the Coffee project south of Dawson city YT. Under Rob's leadership Prospector is poised to be the Yukon's next big gold discovery."

The flow-through shares will qualify as flow-through shares (within the meaning of Subsection 66(15) of the Income Tax Act (Canada). An amount equal to the gross proceeds from the issuance of the flow-through shares will be used to incur eligible resource exploration expenses which will qualify as: (i) Canadian exploration expenses (as defined in the tax act); and (ii) as flow-through critical mineral mining expenditures (as defined in Subsection 127(9) of the tax act). Qualifying expenditures in an aggregate amount not less than the gross proceeds raised from the issue of the flow-through shares will be incurred (or deemed to be incurred) by the company on or before Dec. 31, 2026, and will be renounced by the company to the initial purchasers of the flow-through shares with an effective date no later than Dec. 31, 2025.

Prospector intends to use the proceeds of the FT Shares to finance its exploration program at its ML project in Yukon, which includes up to 5,000 metres of diamond drilling focused on five target areas, as reported in the company's news release dated April 9, 2025, and the proceeds of the NFT Shares for additional funding of its exploration program at the ML project and for general working capital purposes.

There are no finder's fees or commissions payable in connection with the Offering. The offering is subject to certain closing conditions, including, but not limited to, the receipt of all necessary approvals, including the conditional approval of the TSX Venture Exchange.

The securities issued under the offering will be subject to a hold period under applicable securities laws in Canada expiring four months and one day from the closing date of the offering.

This news release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities in the United States. The securities have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "U.S. Securities Act") or any state securities laws and may not be offered or sold within the United States or to U.S. Persons unless registered under the U.S. Securities Act and applicable state securities laws or an exemption from such registration is available.

About Prospector Metals Corp.
Prospector Metals Corp. is a proud member of Discovery Group. The Company is focused on district scale, early-stage exploration of gold and base metal prospects. Creating shareholder value through new discoveries, the Company identifies underexplored or overlooked mineral districts displaying important structural and mineralogical occurrences similar to more established mining operations. The majority of acquisition activity occurs in Yukon and Ontario, Canada – Historical mining jurisdictions with an abundance of overlooked geological regions possessing high mineral potential. Prospector establishes and maintains relationships with local and Indigenous rightsholders and seeks to develop partnerships and agreements that are mutually beneficial to all interested parties.

On behalf of the Board of Directors,
Prospector Metals Corp.

Dr. Rob Carpenter, Ph.D., P.Geo.
President & CEO

For further information about Prospector Metals Corp. or this news release, please visit our website at prospectormetalscorp.com or contact Prospector at 1-778-819-5520 or by email at [email protected].

Prospector Metals Corp. is a proud member of Discovery Group. For more information, please visit: discoverygroup.ca.

Forward-Looking Statement Cautions:

This press release contains certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Canadian securities legislation, including, but not limited to, statements regarding the Company's plans with respect to the Company's projects and the timing related thereto, the merits of the Company's projects, the Company's objectives, plans and strategies, and other project opportunities. Although the Company believes that such statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts; they are generally, but not always, identified by the words "expects," "plans," "anticipates," "believes," "intends," "estimates," "projects," "aims," "potential," "goal," "objective,", "strategy", "prospective," and similar expressions, or that events or conditions "will," "would," "may," "can," "could" or "should" occur, or are those statements, which, by their nature, refer to future events. The Company cautions that Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs, estimates and opinions of the Company's management on the date the statements are made and they involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Consequently, there can be no assurances that such statements will prove to be accurate and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Except to the extent required by applicable securities laws and the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange, the Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements if management's beliefs, estimates or opinions, or other factors, should change. Factors that could cause future results to differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements include the risk of accidents and other risks associated with mineral exploration operations, the risk that the Company will encounter unanticipated geological factors, or the possibility that the Company may not be able to secure permitting and other agency or governmental clearances, necessary to carry out the Company's exploration plans, risks and uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the risk of political uncertainties and regulatory or legal changes in the jurisdictions where the Company carries on its business that might interfere with the Company's business and prospects. The reader is urged to refer to the Company's reports, publicly available through the Canadian Securities Administrators' System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval (SEDAR+) at www.sedarplus.ca for a more complete discussion of such risk factors and their potential effects.

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/273564

Third quarter 2025 net income of $313.4 million, or basic income per common share of $3.61
Third quarter 2025 Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $92.5 million
Company-wide cost reduction initiatives driving $61 million of year-over-year operating cost savings through the first nine months of 2025
Montana Renewables remains on track to achieve 120–150 million gallons of annualized SAF production by second quarter of 2026
SAF placement ahead of plan, with approximately 100 million gallons of SAF fully committed or deep in contracting
Record production and strong margins in Specialty Products & Solutions segment

, /PRNewswire/ -- Calumet, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLMT) (the "Company," "Calumet," "we," "our" or "us")  today reported its results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, as follows:

Three Months Ended September 30, 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 

2025

2024

2025

2024

(Dollars in millions, except per share data)

Net income (loss)

$

313.4

$

(100.6)

$

3.5

$

(181.3)

Basic earnings (loss) per common share

$

3.61

$

(1.18)

$

0.04

$

(2.21)

Adjusted EBITDA

$

69.6

$

59.8

$

162.8

$

162.7

Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes

$

92.5

$

59.8

$

224.0

$

162.7

Specialty Products and Solutions

Performance Brands

Montana/Renewables

Three Months Ended September 30, 

Three Months Ended September 30, 

Three Months Ended September 30, 

2025

2024

2025

2024

2025

2024

(Dollars in millions, except per barrel data)

Gross profit (loss)

$

276.3

$

2.3

$

18.5

$

22.7

$

78.9

$

(20.1)

Adjusted gross profit (loss)

$

89.5

$

54.6

$

20.9

$

24.3

$

(5.3)

$

21.9

Adjusted EBITDA

$

80.2

$

50.7

$

13.2

$

13.6

$

(5.8)

$

14.6

Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes

$

80.2

$

50.7

$

13.2

$

13.6

$

17.1

$

14.6

Gross profit (loss) per barrel

$

46.11

$

0.39

$

124.16

$

145.51

$

34.50

$

(8.48)

Adjusted gross profit (loss) per barrel

$

14.94

$

9.15

$

140.27

$

155.77

$

(2.32)

$

9.24

Specialty Products and Solutions

Performance Brands

Montana/Renewables

Nine Months Ended September 30, 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 

2025

2024

2025

2024

2025

2024

(Dollars in millions, except per barrel data)

Gross profit (loss)

$

227.4

$

126.7

$

62.8

$

70.1

$

(41.5)

$

(49.6)

Adjusted gross profit (loss)

$

230.0

$

184.3

$

67.4

$

72.9

$

(15.5)

$

36.9

Adjusted EBITDA

$

203.3

$

170.6

$

42.5

$

41.1

$

(24.5)

$

9.9

Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes

$

203.3

$

170.6

$

42.5

$

41.1

$

36.7

$

9.9

Gross profit (loss) per barrel

$

13.51

$

7.37

$

135.93

$

146.65

$

(6.01)

$

(7.48)

Adjusted gross profit (loss) per barrel

$

13.66

$

10.71

$

145.89

$

152.51

$

(2.24)

$

5.57

"Calumet posted strong financial results and continued to achieve key strategic milestones during the third quarter," said Todd Borgmann, CEO.  "Our financial success again demonstrated the strength of Calumet's integrated specialties business, and our continued cost discipline and operational progress has driven a $61 million year-to-date reduction in operating costs versus last year." 

"Strategically, the transformation of Montana Renewables is poised to accelerate in the coming year as we plan to bring our MaxSAF™ 150 expansion online in the second quarter of 2026, which will allow us to dramatically increase our SAF production versus today.  With approximately 100 million gallons of SAF fully contracted or in final review, our SAF marketing program is progressing ahead of schedule, and we expect to complete the contracting at strong premiums well before the expansion."    

Specialty Products and Solutions (SPS): The SPS segment reported Adjusted EBITDA of $80.2 million during the third quarter of 2025 compared to Adjusted EBITDA of $50.7 million for the same quarter a year ago.  Segment results reflected strong specialty product sales, fixed cost reduction and year-over-year gains in fuels reflecting record production and strong margins. 

Performance Brands (PB): The PB segment reported Adjusted EBITDA of $13.2 million during the third quarter of 2025 versus Adjusted EBITDA of $13.6 million in the third quarter of 2024. Third quarter 2025 results reflected strong margin performance across the segment, particularly in our TruFuel® brand. The third quarter 2024 results also include Adjusted EBITDA from the Royal Purple® Industrial business, which was divested in March 2025.

Montana/Renewables (MR): The MR segment reported $17.1 million of Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes during the third quarter of 2025 compared to Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $14.6 million in the prior year period.  The MR segment continued to benefit from significant operating cost reductions compared to the prior year period and strong fuels and asphalt results, partially offset by low industry renewable diesel margins and a SAF expansion test run at Montana Renewables resulting in reduced volumes.        

Corporate: Total corporate costs represent $(18.0) million of Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter 2025. This compares to $(19.1) million of Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter 2024. 

Restatement of Financial Results: Calumet also announced today our decision to restate the unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the periods ended March 31, 2025 and June 30, 2025 as a result of the misclassification of certain amounts in the statement of cash flows between cash flows from operating activities and cash flows from financing activities. Ultimately, the correction of this error is expected to result in an upward adjustment of approximately $80 million to operating cash flows and a corresponding reduction of the same amount in financing cash flows.  This error had no impact on revenue, net income (loss), cash and cash equivalents, or Adjusted EBITDA. Additional details regarding the restatement have been provided in our related Current Report on Form 8-K that was filed today with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC").  

Operations Summary

The following table sets forth information about the Company's continuing operations after giving effect to the elimination of all intercompany activity. Facility production volume differs from sales volume due to changes in inventories and the sale of purchased blendstocks such as ethanol and specialty blendstocks, as well as the resale of crude oil.

Three Months Ended September 30, 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 

2025

2024

2025

2024

(In bpd)

Total sales volume (1)

91,605

92,275

88,662

88,720

Facility production:

Specialty Products and Solutions:

Lubricating oils

11,803

12,118

11,705

11,703

Solvents

8,120

7,731

7,876

7,527

Waxes

1,650

1,324

1,374

1,403

Fuels, asphalt and other by-products

43,130

38,004

37,382

35,245

Total Specialty Products and Solutions

64,703

59,177

58,337

55,878

Montana/Renewables:

Gasoline

3,639

3,516

3,520

3,521

Diesel

2,766

2,808

2,675

2,805

Jet fuel

696

483

576

517

Asphalt, heavy fuel oils and other

4,094

4,046

3,919

4,090

Renewable fuels

11,187

11,488

11,059

10,513

Total Montana/Renewables

22,382

22,341

21,749

21,446

Performance Brands

1,583

1,787

1,621

1,755

Total facility production

88,668

83,305

81,707

79,079

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(1)     

Total sales volume includes sales from the production at our facilities and certain third-party facilities pursuant to supply and/or processing agreements, sales of inventories and the resale of crude oil to third-party customers. Total sales volume includes the sale of purchased blendstocks.

Webcast Information

A conference call is scheduled for 9:00 a.m. ET on November 7, 2025, to discuss the financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2025. Investors, analysts and members of the media interested in listening to the live presentation are encouraged to join a webcast of the call with accompanying presentation slides, available on Calumet's website at www.calumet.investorroom.com/events. Interested parties may also participate in the call by dialing 844-695-5524 (US) or 1-412-317-0700 (International). A replay of the conference call will be available a few hours after the event on the investor relations section of Calumet's website, under the events and presentations section and will remain available for at least 90 days.

About Calumet

Calumet, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLMT) manufactures, formulates, and markets a diversified slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels to customers across a broad range of consumer-facing and industrial markets. Calumet is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana and operates twelve facilities throughout North America.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements   

Certain statements and information in this press release may constitute "forward-looking statements." The words "will," "may," "intend," "believe," "expect," "outlook," "forecast," "anticipate," "estimate," "continue," "plan," "should," "could," "would," or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, which are generally not historical in nature. The statements discussed in this press release that are not purely historical data are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, the statements regarding (i) demand for finished products in markets we serve, (ii) our expectation regarding our business outlook and cash flows, including with respect to the Montana Renewables business and our plans to de-leverage our balance sheet, (iii) our ability to monetize PTCs and the price we expect to receive for PTCs, (iv) our expectation regarding anticipated capital expenditures and strategic initiatives and (v) our ability to meet our financial commitments, debt service obligations, debt instrument covenants, contingencies and anticipated capital expenditures. These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and beliefs concerning future developments and their potential effect on us. While management believes that these forward-looking statements are reasonable as and when made, there can be no assurance that future developments affecting us will be those that we anticipate. All comments concerning our current expectations for future sales and operating results are based on our forecasts for our existing operations and do not include the potential impact of any future acquisition or disposition transactions. Our forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties (some of which are beyond our control) and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our historical experience and our present expectations or projections. Known material factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include: the overall demand for specialty products, fuels, renewable fuels and other refined products; the level of foreign and domestic production of crude oil and refined products; our ability to produce specialty products, fuel products, and renewable fuel products that meet our customers' unique and precise specifications; the marketing of alternative and competing products; the impact of fluctuations and rapid increases or decreases in crude oil and crack spread prices, including the resulting impact on our liquidity; the results of our hedging and other risk management activities; our ability to comply with financial covenants contained in our debt instruments; the availability of, and our ability to consummate, acquisition or combination opportunities and the impact of any completed acquisitions; labor relations; our access to capital to fund expansions, acquisitions and our working capital needs and our ability to obtain debt or equity financing on satisfactory terms; successful integration and future performance of acquired assets, businesses or third-party product supply and processing relationships; our ability to timely and effectively integrate the operations of acquired businesses or assets, particularly those in new geographic areas or in new lines of business; environmental liabilities or events that are not covered by an indemnity, insurance or existing reserves; maintenance of our credit ratings and ability to receive open credit lines from our suppliers; demand for various grades of crude oil and resulting changes in pricing conditions; fluctuations in refinery capacity; our ability to access sufficient crude oil supply through long-term or month-to-month evergreen contracts and on the spot market; the effects of competition; continued creditworthiness of, and performance by, counterparties; the impact of current and future laws, rulings and governmental regulations, including guidance related to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act; the costs of complying with the Renewable Fuel Standard, including the prices paid for renewable identification numbers ("RINs"); our ability to sell, and the prices received for, PTCs; shortages or cost increases of power supplies, natural gas, materials or labor; hurricane or other weather interference with business operations; our ability to access the debt and equity markets; accidents or other unscheduled shutdowns; and general economic, market, business or political conditions, including inflationary pressures, instability in financial institutions, general economic slowdown or a recession, political tensions, conflicts and war (such as the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and their regional and global ramifications).

For additional information regarding factors that could cause our actual results to differ from our projected results, please see our filings with the SEC, including the risk factors and other cautionary statements in our latest Annual Report on Form 10-K and our other filings with the SEC.

We caution that these statements are not guarantees of future performance and you should not rely unduly on them, as they involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that we cannot predict. In addition, we have based many of these forward-looking statements on assumptions about future events that may prove to be inaccurate. While our management considers these assumptions to be reasonable, they are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, regulatory and other risks, contingencies and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control. Accordingly, our actual results may differ materially from the future performance that we have expressed or forecast in our forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements after the date they are made, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by applicable law. Certain public statements made by us and our representatives on the date hereof may also contain forward-looking statements, which are qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained above.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Our management uses certain non-GAAP performance measures to analyze operating segment performance and non-GAAP financial measures to evaluate past performance and prospects for the future to supplement our financial information presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). These financial and operational non-GAAP measures are important factors in assessing our operating results and profitability and include performance measures along with certain key operating metrics.

We use the following financial performance measures:

EBITDA: We define EBITDA for any period as net income (loss) plus interest expense (including amortization of debt issuance costs), income taxes and depreciation and amortization. We believe net income (loss) is the most directly comparable GAAP measure to EBITDA.

Adjusted EBITDA: We define Adjusted EBITDA for any period as: EBITDA adjusted for (a) impairment; (b) unrealized gains and losses from mark to market accounting for hedging activities; (c) realized gains and losses under derivative instruments excluded from the determination of net income (loss); (d) non-cash equity-based compensation expense and other non-cash items (excluding items such as accruals of cash expenses in a future period or amortization of a prepaid cash expense) that were deducted in computing net income (loss); (e) debt refinancing fees, extinguishment costs, premiums and penalties; (f) any net gain or loss realized in connection with an asset sale that was deducted in computing net income (loss); (g) amortization of turnaround costs; (h) LCM inventory adjustments; (i) the impact of liquidation of inventory layers calculated using the LIFO method; (j) RINs mark-to-market adjustments; (k) RINs incurrence expense; and (l) all extraordinary, unusual or non-recurring items of gain or loss, or revenue or expense.

We define Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes for any period as Adjusted EBITDA plus the notional value of Production Tax Credits, less the difference between the notional value of any Production Tax Credits sold and the amount realized from such sales.

Specialty Products and Solutions segment Adjusted EBITDA Margin: We define Specialty Products and Solutions segment Adjusted EBITDA Margin for any period as Specialty Products and Solutions segment Adjusted EBITDA divided by Specialty Products and Solutions segment sales.

Specialty Products and Solutions segment Adjusted gross profit (loss): We define Specialty Products and Solutions segment Adjusted gross profit (loss) for any period as Specialty Products and Solutions segment gross profit (loss) excluding the impact of (a) LCM inventory adjustments; (b) the impact of liquidation of inventory layers calculated using the LIFO method; (c) RINs mark-to-market adjustments; (d) depreciation and amortization; (e) RINs incurrence expense; and (f) all extraordinary, unusual or non-recurring items of revenue or cost of sales.

Performance Brands segment Adjusted gross profit (loss): We define Performance Brands segment Adjusted gross profit (loss) for any period as Performance Brands segment gross profit (loss) excluding the impact of (a) LCM inventory adjustments; (b) the impact of liquidation of inventory layers calculated using the LIFO method; (c) RINs mark-to-market adjustments; (d) depreciation and amortization; (e) RINs incurrence expense; and (f) all extraordinary, unusual or non-recurring items of revenue or cost of sales.

Montana/Renewables segment Adjusted gross profit (loss): We define Montana/Renewables segment Adjusted gross profit (loss) for any period as Montana/Renewables segment gross profit (loss) excluding the impact of (a) LCM inventory adjustments; (b) the impact of liquidation of inventory layers calculated using the LIFO method; (c) RINs mark-to-market adjustments; (d) depreciation and amortization; (e) RINs incurrence expense; and (f) all extraordinary, unusual or non-recurring items of revenue or cost of sales.

The definition of Adjusted EBITDA that is presented in this press release is similar to the calculation of (i) "Consolidated Cash Flow" contained in the indentures governing our 11.0% Senior Notes due 2026 (the "2026 Notes"), our 8.125% Senior Notes due 2027 (the "2027 Notes"), each series of our 9.75% Senior Notes due 2028 (the "2028 Notes"), and our 9.25% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2029 (the "2029 Secured Notes") and (ii) "Consolidated EBITDA" contained in the credit agreement governing our revolving credit facility. We are required to report Consolidated Cash Flow to the holders of our 2026 Notes, 2027 Notes, 2028 Notes, and 2029 Secured Notes and Consolidated EBITDA to the lenders under our revolving credit facility, and these measures are used by them to determine our compliance with certain covenants governing those debt instruments. Please see our filings with the SEC, including our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Current Reports on Form 8-K, for additional details regarding the covenants governing our debt instruments.

These non-GAAP measures are used as supplemental financial measures by our management and by external users of our financial statements such as investors, commercial banks, research analysts and others, to assess:

the financial performance of our assets without regard to financing methods, capital structure or historical cost basis;
the ability of our assets to generate cash sufficient to pay interest costs and support our indebtedness;
our operating performance and return on capital as compared to those of other companies in our industry, without regard to financing or capital structure;
the viability of acquisitions and capital expenditure projects and the overall rates of return on alternative investment opportunities; and
our operating performance excluding the non-cash impact of LCM and LIFO inventory adjustments, RINs mark-to-market adjustments, RINs incurrence expense, and depreciation and amortization.

We believe that these non-GAAP measures are useful to analysts and investors, as they exclude transactions not related to our core cash operating activities and provide metrics to analyze our ability to fund our capital requirements and to pay interest on our debt obligations. We believe that excluding these transactions allows investors to meaningfully analyze trends and performance of our core cash operations.

EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes, and segment Adjusted gross profit (loss) should not be considered alternatives to Net income (loss), Operating income (loss), Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities, gross profit (loss) or any other measure of financial performance presented in accordance with GAAP. In evaluating our performance as measured by EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes, and segment Adjusted gross profit (loss) management recognizes and considers the limitations of these measurements. EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes do not reflect our liabilities for the payment of income taxes, interest expense or other obligations such as capital expenditures. Accordingly, EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes, and segment Adjusted gross profit (loss) are only a few of several measurements that management utilizes. Moreover, our EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes, and segment Adjusted gross profit (loss) may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of another company because all companies may not calculate EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes, and segment Adjusted gross profit (loss) in the same manner. Please see the section of this release entitled "Non-GAAP Reconciliations" for tables that present reconciliations of EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes to Net income (loss), our most directly comparable GAAP financial performance measure; and segment Adjusted gross profit (loss) to segment gross profit (loss), our most directly comparable GAAP financial performance measure.

CALUMET, INC.

UNAUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS

(In millions, except share and per share data)

Three Months Ended September 30, 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 

2025

2024

2025

2024

Sales

$

1,078.0

$

1,100.4

$

3,098.5

$

3,239.9

Cost of sales

704.3

1,095.5

2,849.8

3,092.7

Gross profit

373.7

4.9

248.7

147.2

Operating costs and expenses:

Selling

10.9

14.9

35.4

43.7

General and administrative

31.4

40.2

84.6

101.0

(Gain) loss on sale of business

6.4

—

(55.8)

—

Other operating expense

2.1

6.9

11.3

17.1

Operating income (loss)

322.9

(57.1)

173.2

(14.6)

Other income (expense):

Interest expense

(53.6)

(57.7)

(165.0)

(175.3)

Debt extinguishment costs

0.5

—

(47.2)

(0.3)

Gain (loss) on derivative instruments

(1.5)

15.2

(4.4)

9.6

Other income (expense)

3.7

(0.3)

6.1

0.7

Total other expense

(50.9)

(42.8)

(210.5)

(165.3)

Net income (loss) before income taxes

272.0

(99.9)

(37.3)

(179.9)

Income tax (benefit) expense

(41.4)

0.7

(40.8)

1.4

Net income (loss)

$

313.4

$

(100.6)

$

3.5

$

(181.3)

Earnings per share:

Basic and diluted

$

3.61

$

(1.18)

$

0.04

$

(2.21)

Weighted average number of common shares:

Basic and diluted

86,901,141

85,530,080

86,710,696

82,158,405

CALUMET, INC.

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS

(In millions, except share data)

September 30, 2025

December 31, 2024

ASSETS

(Unaudited)

Current assets:

Cash and cash equivalents

$

94.6

$

38.1

Restricted cash

80.0

7.8

Accounts receivable, net:

Trade, less allowance for credit losses of $1.2 million and $1.1 million, respectively

263.9

241.7

Other

14.8

36.4

278.7

278.1

Inventories

400.1

416.3

Prepaid expenses and other current assets

26.7

25.7

Total current assets

880.1

766.0

Property, plant and equipment, net

1,362.0

1,438.8

Other noncurrent assets, net

491.8

553.4

Total assets

$

2,733.9

$

2,758.2

LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY

Current liabilities:

Accounts payable

$

298.7

$

320.8

Accrued interest payable

28.9

45.4

Accrued salaries, wages and benefits

66.1

94.7

Obligations under inventory financing agreements

—

32.0

Current portion of RINs obligation

133.0

245.4

Other current liabilities

94.4

89.8

Current portion of long-term debt

155.2

35.5

Total current liabilities

776.3

863.6

Other long-term liabilities

259.9

296.2

Long-term debt, less current portion

2,147.4

2,064.7

Total liabilities

$

3,183.6

$

3,224.5

Commitments and contingencies

Redeemable noncontrolling interest

$

245.6

$

245.6

Stockholders' equity:

Common stock: par value $0.01 per share, 700,000,000 shares authorized, and
86,752,229 and 85,950,493 shares issued and outstanding as of September 30,
2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively.

$

0.9

$

0.9

Additional paid-in capital

838.4

825.4

Warrants: 2,000,000 warrants issued and outstanding as of September 30, 2025
and December 31, 2024.

7.8

7.8

Accumulated deficit

(1,535.5)

(1,539.0)

Accumulated other comprehensive loss

(6.9)

(7.0)

Total stockholders' equity

(695.3)

(711.9)

Total liabilities and stockholders' equity

$

2,733.9

$

2,758.2

CALUMET, INC.

UNAUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS

(In millions)

Nine Months Ended September 30, 

2025

2024

Operating activities

Net income (loss)

$

3.5

$

(181.3)

Adjustments to reconcile net income (loss) to net cash used in operating activities:

Non-cash RINs gain

(112.4)

(1.6)

Unrealized (gain) loss on derivative instruments

(9.1)

0.8

Other non-cash activities

164.5

148.7

Changes in assets and liabilities

(54.1)

(9.6)

Net cash used in operating activities

$

(7.6)

$

(43.0)

Investing activities

Additions to property, plant and equipment

(39.6)

(51.7)

Proceeds from sale of business

95.4

—

Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities

$

55.8

$

(51.7)

Financing activities

Proceeds from borrowings — revolving credit facility

1,896.4

1,605.6

Repayments of borrowings — revolving credit facility

(2,015.4)

(1,516.4)

Proceeds from borrowings — MRL revolving credit agreement

26.6

32.0

Repayments of borrowings — MRL revolving credit agreement

(26.7)

(45.0)

Proceeds from borrowings — senior notes

100.0

200.0

Repayments of borrowings — senior notes

(230.0)

(229.0)

Proceeds from inventory financing

264.9

550.0

Payments on inventory financing

(306.4)

(580.0)

Proceeds from DOE Loan

781.8

—

Proceeds from other financing obligations

160.0

144.7

Repayments of borrowings - MRL Asset Financing Arrangements

(396.1)

—

Repayments of borrowings - MRL Term Loan Credit Agreement

(86.0)

—

Payments on other financing obligations

(88.6)

(39.6)

Net cash provided by financing activities

$

80.5

$

122.3

Net increase in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash

$

128.7

$

27.6

Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at beginning of period

$

45.9

$

14.7

Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at end of period

$

174.6

$

42.3

Cash and cash equivalents

$

94.6

$

34.6

Restricted cash

$

80.0

$

7.7

Supplemental disclosure of cash flow information

Interest paid, net of capitalized interest

$

150.9

$

175.3

Supplemental disclosure of non-cash investing activities

Non-cash property, plant and equipment additions

$

28.8

$

29.2

CALUMET, INC.

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

RECONCILIATION OF NET INCOME (LOSS)

TO EBITDA, ADJUSTED EBITDA, AND ADJUSTED EBITDA WITH TAX ATTRIBUTES

(In millions)

Three Months Ended September 30, 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 

2025

2024

2025

2024

(Unaudited)

Reconciliation of Net income (loss) to EBITDA,
Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EBITDA with Tax
Attributes:

Net income (loss)

$

313.4

$

(100.6)

$

3.5

$

(181.3)

Add:

Interest expense

53.6

57.7

165.0

175.3

Depreciation and amortization

39.6

35.7

113.4

108.1

Income tax expense

(41.4)

0.7

(40.8)

1.4

EBITDA

$

365.2

$

(6.5)

$

241.1

$

103.5

Add:

LCM / LIFO loss

$

5.1

$

9.4

$

3.1

$

8.9

Unrealized gain on derivative instruments

(2.0)

(13.6)

(9.1)

(52.3)

Debt extinguishment costs

(0.5)

—

47.2

0.3

Amortization of turnaround costs

11.1

9.6

31.9

28.5

(Gain) loss on sale of business

6.4

—

(55.8)

—

RINs incurrence (gain) expense

(303.1)

10.0

(257.4)

24.5

RINs mark-to-market (gain) loss

(20.8)

32.8

145.1

(26.1)

Equity-based compensation and other items

9.5

7.0

6.1

4.4

Other non-recurring (income) expenses (1)

(5.3)

12.1

2.1

72.1

Noncontrolling interest adjustments

4.0

(1.0)

8.5

(1.1)

Adjusted EBITDA

$

69.6

$

59.8

$

162.8

$

162.7

   Tax attributes (2)

22.9

—

61.2

—

Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes

$

92.5

$

59.8

$

224.0

$

162.7

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(1) 

For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, other non-recurring expenses included a $56.2 million realized loss on derivatives related to the embedded derivatives for our inventory financing arrangements.

(2)   

Tax attribute amounts reflect 100% of the notional value of Production Tax Credits generated for each respective period presented less any discounts on the sale of PTCs. The PTCs can be realized by applying the credits to the Company's tax expense or sold in a secondary market at a discounted rate.

CALUMET, INC.

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

RECONCILIATION OF MONTANA/RENEWABLES SEGMENT NET INCOME (LOSS)

TO SEGMENT ADJUSTED EBITDA AND SEGMENT ADJUSTED EBITDA WITH TAX ATTRIBUTES

(In millions)

Three Months Ended September 30, 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 

2025

2024

2025

2024

(In Millions)

(Unaudited)

Reconciliation of Montana/Renewables Segment  Net income (loss)
to Segment Adjusted EBITDA and Segment Adjusted EBITDA with
Tax Attributes:

Montana/Renewables Segment Net income (loss)

$

103.7

$

(49.9)

$

(120.6)

$

(127.5)

Add:

Depreciation and amortization

$

27.9

$

25.5

$

84.0

$

76.3

LCM / LIFO (gain) loss

2.0

4.4

(5.0)

6.8

Interest expense

15.4

15.7

48.8

48.7

Debt extinguishment costs

(0.1)

—

47.5

—

RINs incurrence (gain) expense

(110.2)

1.9

(98.8)

4.1

RINs mark-to-market (gain) loss

(4.1)

10.2

45.7

(9.2)

Other non-recurring (income) expenses

(4.3)

7.8

3.9

11.8

Equity-based compensation and other items

—

—

5.6

—

Income tax (benefit) expense

(40.1)

—

(44.1)

—

Noncontrolling interest adjustments

4.0

(1.0)

8.5

(1.1)

Montana/Renewables Segment Adjusted EBITDA

$

(5.8)

$

14.6

$

(24.5)

$

9.9

Tax attributes (1)

22.9

—

61.2

—

Montana/Renewables Segment Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes

$

17.1

$

14.6

$

36.7

$

9.9

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(1)   

Tax attribute amounts reflect 100% of the notional value of Production Tax Credits generated for each respective period presented less any discounts on the sale of PTCs. The PTCs can be realized by applying the credits to the Company's tax expense or sold in a secondary market at a discounted rate.  

CALUMET, INC.

RECONCILIATION OF SEGMENT GROSS PROFIT (LOSS)

TO SEGMENT ADJUSTED GROSS PROFIT

(In millions, except per barrel data)

Three Months Ended September 30, 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 

2025

2024

2025

2024

(Unaudited)

Reconciliation of Segment Gross Profit (Loss) to Segment Adjusted

Gross Profit (Loss):

Specialty Products and Solution segment gross profit

$

276.3

$

2.3

$

227.4

$

126.7

LCM/LIFO inventory loss

1.4

4.2

5.6

1.3

RINs incurrence (gain) expense

(192.9)

8.1

(158.6)

20.4

RINs mark to market (gain) loss

(16.7)

22.6

99.4

(16.9)

Depreciation and amortization

21.4

17.4

56.2

52.8

Specialty Products and Solutions segment Adjusted gross profit

$

89.5

$

54.6

$

230.0

$

184.3

Performance Brands segment gross profit

$

18.5

$

22.7

$

62.8

$

70.1

LCM/LIFO inventory loss

1.7

0.9

2.5

0.8

Depreciation and amortization

0.7

0.7

2.1

2.0

Performance Brands segment Adjusted gross profit

$

20.9

$

24.3

$

67.4

$

72.9

Montana/Renewables segment gross profit (loss)

$

78.9

$

(20.1)

$

(41.5)

$

(49.6)

LCM/LIFO inventory (gain) loss

2.0

4.4

(5.0)

6.8

Loss on firm purchase commitments

—

—

—

8.5

RINs incurrence (gain) expense

(110.2)

1.9

(98.8)

4.1

RINs mark to market (gain) loss

(4.1)

10.2

45.7

(9.2)

Depreciation and amortization

28.1

25.5

84.1

76.3

Montana/Renewables segment Adjusted gross profit (loss)

$

(5.3)

$

21.9

$

(15.5)

$

36.9

Reported Specialty Products and Solutions segment gross profit per barrel

$

46.11

$

0.39

$

13.51

$

7.37

LCM/LIFO inventory loss per barrel

0.23

0.70

0.33

0.08

RINs incurrence (gain) expense per barrel

(32.19)

1.35

(9.42)

1.18

RINs mark to market (gain) loss per barrel

(2.79)

3.79

5.90

(0.98)

Depreciation and amortization per barrel

3.58

2.92

3.34

3.06

Specialty Products and Solutions segment Adjusted gross profit per barrel

$

14.94

$

9.15

$

13.66

$

10.71

Reported Performance Brands segment gross profit per barrel

$

124.16

$

145.51

$

135.93

$

146.65

LCM/LIFO inventory loss per barrel

11.41

5.77

5.41

1.67

Depreciation and amortization per barrel

4.70

4.49

4.55

4.19

Performance Brands segment Adjusted gross profit per barrel

$

140.27

$

155.77

$

145.89

$

152.51

Reported Montana/Renewables segment gross profit (loss) per barrel

$

34.50

$

(8.48)

$

(6.01)

$

(7.48)

LCM/LIFO inventory (gain) loss per barrel

0.87

1.86

(0.72)

1.03

Loss on firm purchase commitments per barrel

—

—

—

1.28

RINs incurrence (gain) expense per barrel

(48.19)

0.79

(14.31)

0.62

RINs mark to market (gain) loss per barrel

(1.79)

4.30

6.62

(1.39)

Depreciation and amortization per barrel

12.29

10.77

12.18

11.51

Montana/Renewables segment Adjusted gross profit (loss) per barrel

$

(2.32)

$

9.24

$

(2.24)

$

5.57

Specialty Products and Solutions Adjusted EBITDA

$

80.2

$

50.7

$

203.3

$

170.6

Specialty Products and Solutions sales

679.1

714.0

1,957.1

2,141.8

Specialty Products and Solutions Adjusted EBITDA margin

11.8

%

7.1

%

10.4

%

8.0

%

SOURCE Calumet, Inc.

Confirmation from ITV PLC (LSE:ITV) on Friday morning that it is in talks with Sky about the possible sale of its broadcast arm sent the shares surging and reignited speculation about a long-awaited break-up of the group.

Analysts said offloading the slower-growth Media & Entertainment division, as is being discussed, could create substantial value for shareholders, but warned of likely regulatory hurdles.

Comcast, Sky’s US parent, had earlier been reported to be in discussions to buy the unit from the FTSE 250 group for about $2 billion (£1.6 billion), an amount that was confirmed. 

UBS analyst Adam Berlin, who has a 'sell' rating on the stock, said such a deal “could potentially create material value for ITV shareholders”.

His valuation, based on discounted future cash flow, values the division at £1.5 billion, close to the reported figure.

The UBS analyst estimated that if ITV used all the proceeds for share buybacks, it would lift earnings per share to around 10p, versus 7.7p in his current base-case forecasts.

It would imply the shares are trading on circa 7x EPS, while the only European listed studios peer, France's Banijay, trades on 9x.

"But there are reasons to be cautious," said Berlin, noting that no formal bid has been received and that “regulatory approval” would likely be needed, given Comcast’s ownership of Sky.

Moreover, ITV is UK's largest commercial public broadcaster and, said market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo, regulators might "raise eyebrows" or more about Sky building such dominance in the UK TV ad market.

He said consolidation in the industry “has been a long time coming” as broadcasters face “the onslaught of US streaming giants”.

Dan Coatsworth at AJ Bell said the broadcaster may finally have found a buyer for “the ball and chain” part of its business, with the slower-growth media arm, which includes free-to-air channels and streaming platform ITVX, would leave the pureplay content production business of ITV Studios.

The Studios arm, which in recent months has produced programmes including The Reluctant Traveller for Apple TV, Love Island Games for Peacock in the US, Frauds for ITV and The Guest for BBC, has continued to perform strongly, helping offset weakness in traditional advertising in the past quarter and before.

It will become "an instant takeover target" itself, said Coatsworth, suggesting Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) would be a potential buyer to obtain a rich library of content to feed its platform.

After being a 'strategic' shareholder in ITV for a decade, Liberty Global (NASDAQ:LBTYA) seemingly out of nowhere sold half of its 10% stake last month.

The Virgin Media owner "might be kicking itself", he added, especially as ITV’s share price is now higher than the implied price at which Liberty increased its position from 5% to 10% in July 2015, having first built a stake the year before. 

SummaryAirbnb is rated a Buy with a $140 price target, reflecting confidence in its leading position in short-term rentals.Despite a slight EPS miss, ABNB reported steady top and bottom-line growth and double-digit booking increases, supporting a bullish outlook.AI-powered platform enhancements are expected to drive future revenue growth, user engagement, and overall experience for ABNB.Risks remain, but recent innovations and high margins reinforce the positive investment thesis for ABNB over the next 12 months. Flashpop/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Following my previous article on Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB), the stock price declined by 2%. It has been trading in the range, mirroring market sentiment. However, the company reported FQ3 2025 on November

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ABNB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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