Market Signal Briefing

As XRP struggles to hold the $2 support, data shows that the asset’s ledger has experienced a notable shift in its distribution patterns, with the number of whale and shark wallets holding 100 million XRP or more shrinking significantly.

Over the past eight weeks, the number of these large wallets has dropped by 20.6%, with 569 fewer such addresses recorded, according to Santiment data shared on December 1.

Despite this reduction in the number of large wallets, those remaining have continued to grow their holdings, now collectively holding a remarkable 48 billion XRP. This marks a seven-year high for the total amount of XRP held by top wallets.

XRP Ledger metrics. Source: Santiment
Impact on XRP price 
This trend suggests a consolidation of holdings among top-tier addresses, potentially signaling that these large players are positioning themselves for the long term. 

Meanwhile, the shrinking number of large XRP wallets suggests smaller holders may be selling or being priced out, while larger investors continue to accumulate.

This could reduce circulating supply and, with growing demand, push XRP’s price higher. The increasing holdings of whales and sharks further indicate a bullish outlook, reinforcing market confidence and potentially attracting more investment.

Indeed, while the structure can influence the price of XRP, the asset’s spot exchange-traded funds are also flashing signs of helping the cryptocurrency sustain gains above $2.

On December 1, the four XRP-focused ETFs attracted $89.65 million, pushing total inflows to $756.26 million since XRP’s debut. This makes XRP ETFs the best-performing funds in the cryptocurrency sector, outperforming Bitcoin ETFs, which gained just $8.48 million. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE)-focused ETFs saw significant outflows, including over $79 million from Ethereum and $13.55 million from Solana.

XRP price analysis
By press time, XRP was trading at $2.04, having rallied about 1.2% in the past 24 hours. However, on the weekly timeline, the asset is down over 8%.

XRP seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold
At the current price, XRP’s 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands at $2.35, indicating that the price is currently below its short-term average, which suggests a bearish sentiment. Additionally, the 200-day SMA of $2.65 reinforces this negative outlook, showing the price is well below its longer-term trend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39.63, which is considered neutral but leans toward the oversold territory. This could imply that XRP is under some selling pressure but is not yet at extreme levels, suggesting potential for a rebound or further consolidation depending on market conditions.

Featured image via Shutterstock

Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum's cofounder, is once again warning about the growing threat of quantum computers, but this time he has actually outlined a plan to fight it.He has talked about this risk many times before, and it is becoming a bigger concern for the entire crypto market.

In a series of strategic moves, Pi Network has introduced several new developments aimed at enhancing its ecosystem. As of late November, the network partnered with CiDi Games, aiming to integrate Pi tokens into a variety of gaming applications.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) retracing below $100,000 may feel painful, but on-chain data shows a recovery is possible.

What Happened: According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin is stabilizing above key lows, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding, which signals seller exhaustion.

Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has flipped positive, but overall volume and liquidity remain weak.

Derivatives reflect de-risking with low funding and shrinking open interest, while recovering futures CVD suggests fading sell pressure.

ETF flows have turned positive (+$159.8 million), though activity stays light.

On-chain usage remains soft and dominated by short-term holders.

Overall, Bitcoin is moving from deleveraging into a fragile equilibrium, with recovery dependent on stronger spot demand and broader participation.

Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Steady As Crypto Market Hovers Around $3 Trillion Valuation

Why It Matters: CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin's 1–3 month on-chain trader cohort entering the cycle’s deepest loss zone, with a realized price of $113,692 and ongoing losses of 20–25% for two straight weeks.

This level of short-term holder capitulation has historically aligned with market bottoms, as these traders either sell or hold through pain.

With many already capitulating, accumulation opportunities often emerge, provided the broader long-term bullish trend stays intact.

While that trend still appears healthy, the current environment calls for caution and vigilance.

Read Next:

6 Tips How To Invest In Bitcoin During A Bear Market
Image: Shutterstock

Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Tue, 2/12/2025 - 14:36

Swift chief innovation officer and XRP critic Tom Zschach shares tokenization take as markets look ahead to the next evolution in infrastructure.

Cover image via U.Today

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Tom Zschach, chief innovation officer at Swift, joins the current conversation on X about tokenization.

Zscach is known in the XRP community for his criticism of the cryptocurrency. In prior communications, he compared using a private token as a "bridge currency" to using a fax machine, obviously throwing shade at XRP. Zschach also questioned Ripple's chances of conquering the financial system, claiming that banking institutions would not be using the XRP token.

In a tweet, Zscach stated that "tokenisation isn't a feature upgrade," defining it as "the moment finance stops shuffling claims and starts synchronising truth."

HOT Stories

Tokenisation isn’t a feature upgrade. It’s the moment finance stops shuffling claims and starts synchronising truth.

And Larry Fink and Rob Goldstein are right. The real shift isn’t speed, it’s the ability to turn every asset into a programmable, verifiable network that settles… https://t.co/kINUT6I4Ad

— Tom Zschach (@TomZschach) December 2, 2025 The Swift official was referring to a recent take by BlackRock executives on tokenization. Writing in The Economist, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and COO Rob Goldstein referred to tokenization as "the next major evolution in market infrastructure."

Swipe at XRP?While Zscach did not mention XRP in his post, as is his characteristic manner, his prior history with the cryptocurrency might suggest a deeper meaning to his tweet, especially when he said tokenization was not a feature upgrade, but this is unknown.

The Multi-Purpose Token (MPT) upgrade went live on XRP Ledger in October, representing a step forward in how complex financial instruments can be represented on-chain, with tokenization being at the center of XRPL’s institutional strategy.

Over the last year, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) has broken into the top chains for real-world assets (RWAs) as Ripple continues to expand its tokenization focus through various partnerships.

In September, Ripple and Securitize launched a smart contract that would allow holders of BUIDL and VBILL to exchange their shares for Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin.

BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) and VanEck’s Treasury Fund, Ltd. (VBILL) are both firms’ first tokenized funds issued on public blockchains. This move provided an additional stablecoin off-ramp for BUIDL and VBILL tokenized short-term treasury funds.

Related articles

Stocks rose on Tuesday, boosted by gains in and technology names, as traders tried to recover from a weak start to December Trading.

Bitcoin Magazine A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin Price History shows the bitcoin price explodes every time balance sheet stops shrinking. Next leg up loading? A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin Price Matt Crosby.

On November 27, 2025, Bitget, the leading Universal Exchange, launched the IRYSUSDT futures trading pair, offering a leverage of up to 20x. This development enhances Bitget's broad range of derivatives and reflects its emphasis on providing advanced trading solutions.

On December 1, 2025, Ripple announced a major regulatory upgrade in Singapore, reinforcing its ambition to make XRP a central instrument for global payments. The expanded license allows the company to streamline cross-border money transfers, expand its payments infrastructure, and provide faster, more transparent settlements to financial institutions worldwide.

Ripple Intensifies Its Global Payments Playbook
The Singapore regulatory upgrade extends the scope of Ripple’s Major Payment Institution (MPI) license, giving its subsidiary, Ripple Markets APAC Pte. Ltd., authority to operate a fully regulated, end-to-end payments platform. The license enables Ripple to handle fund collection, secure custody, token conversion, and final payouts within a single operational framework. XRP and Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD are embedded into the system, consolidating complex cross-border processes into a fast, compliant, and transparent environment.

This upgrade positions Ripple as a turnkey solution for banks, corporates, and fintechs. By managing both regulatory compliance and the technology infrastructure, Ripple removes the fragmentation that slows legacy systems. These institutions now have a single point of contact, reducing complexity and making operations more efficient.

Ripple is also expanding its geographic reach through strategic partnerships. Its collaboration with Bahrain Fintech Bay allows the company to run pilot programs, real-world payment trials, and early deployment of token-driven services in the Gulf region. These initiatives help Ripple establish liquidity corridors, embed its infrastructure into local financial ecosystems, and build familiarity with regional regulators.

Financially, Ripple strengthened its position with a $500 million funding round in November 2025, which valued the company at roughly $40 billion. The capital is being directed toward scaling payment infrastructure, enhancing enterprise tools, and expanding its stablecoin program. With these resources, Ripple can roll out its technology faster, integrate with new partners more efficiently, and advance its dominance in the institutional payments market.

XRP’s Expanding Utility In Ripple’s Global Framework
XRP remains the settlement engine of Ripple’s infrastructure, providing instant liquidity, rapid transaction settlement, and multi-currency interoperability. This functionality allows Ripple to address high-friction payment corridors, such as those in Africa, where it works with regional providers to replace slow correspondent banking chains with XRP-enabled settlements. In the Asia-Pacific region, growing on-chain activity and rising institutional demand create favorable conditions for token-based cross-border payments. The Singapore MPI upgrade now offers a regulated launchpad to deliver XRP-powered rails across these high-growth regions.

Building on this foundation, Ripple is creating a vertically integrated ecosystem where fiat, stablecoins, and digital assets operate through a unified platform. Within this framework, XRP bridges currencies, provides deep liquidity, and executes transactions faster than traditional systems. Each regulatory approval, partnership, and infrastructure deployment further embeds XRP into the backbone of global financial infrastructure.

Together, these milestones illustrate Ripple’s multi-market strategy: expanding regulatory clarity, deploying robust infrastructure, and demonstrating real-world XRP utility. The Singapore upgrade is a decisive step in this progression, reinforcing Ripple’s steady movement toward making XRP a central tool for cross-border payment systems.

Price struggles to recover | Source: XRPUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin ETFs opened December with a modest inflow, even as ether and solana products returned to outflow territory. Trading remained active across all three segments, signaling investors are still repositioning as year-end approaches.

Wall Street's chief regulator said in an address at the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission should reform rules requiring disclosure of executive compensation and should move to reduce the legal burdens facing smaller companies.

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting to recover following the brief slump that pushed it below $84,000 on Monday, December 1, its weakest level since April. However, the sentiment remains fragile.

The crypto market is eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s December 10 policy decision, as the cryptocurrency is likely to remain a daily benchmark for those still optimistic about a potential lift by the end of the year.

To see whether the optimism is justified, Finbold’s AI prediction agent conducted an in-depth technical analysis of Bitcoin and employed three leading large language models (LLMs) to forecast its price by December 31.

AI predicts BTC price for end of 2025
Overall, Finbold’s AI prediction agent suggests that the leading cryptocurrency is indeed up for a few weeks of growth. Namely, the combined forecast from ChatGPT, Claude Sonnet 4, and Gemini 2.5 Flash has put the average year-end Bitcoin price target at $95,333, implying a solid 7.74% gain from the current price of $88,483.

AI BTC price prediction. Source: Finbold’s AI prediction agent
However, a closer look reveals a more complex picture, as the three large language models produced markedly different Bitcoin price forecasts. Claude Sonnet 4 predicts a surge of 29.97%, which would send BTC back to $115,000 by December 31. 

On the other hand, ChatGPT and Gemini 2.5 Flash were not at all bullish, anticipating drops of 3.94% and 2.81%, respectively, which would imply a price in the $85,000–$86,000 range.

The overall 7.74% upside is thus heavily influenced by Claude Sonnet 4’s aggressive estimate, which is also reflected in its analysis of XRP price targets for December 31. As such, the number underscores the wide divergence among AI-driven predictions in a shaky market. 

In other words, while the blended outlook leans bullish, the spread between individual forecasts highlights lingering uncertainty touched on above. Still, it can be noted that some human analysts are also quite upbeat about “digital gold’s” short-term prospects, as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, for example, has argued that a new all-time high is possible as early as January.

Featured image via Shutterstock

Tue, 2/12/2025 - 15:12

BTC punched back into $89,000, and right in the middle of that move, CZ stepped in with an unexpected all-time high, fueling another leg of the Bitcoin price parabola.

Cover image via U.Today

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Bitcoin's afternoon surge toward the $88,000 mark provided the ideal backdrop for an unexpected message from Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, or as he is better known online, CZ. In a cryptic post, CZ claimed that "many more ATHs" are on the horizon, although he does not know exactly when. 

While the post was a reaction to Trust Wallet launching its own prediction market, for market participants, this was a clear hint. It perfectly accompanied Bitcoin's price explosion.

The market was already recovering from a dip in the mid-$87,000 range, a turnaround that occurred just as short-term liquidations mounted across major pairs. The one-hour heatmap shows BTC clearing $14.5 million in wiped positioning, almost all of which came from shorts. 

HOT Stories

Source: TradingViewThose monitoring the intraday chart saw Bitcoin swing from $86,800 to above $88,700 within a short period, enough to trigger a wave of forced exits, but not enough to reset the broader trend. 

Bears take hitWhat gave the jump extra weight was CZ’s decision to link it to a long-term cycle view rather than to any token-specific catalyst. His comment comes at a time when derivatives desks are reporting uneven positioning, and today's data confirms this: long-side pressure remained mild, while short exposure accounted for most of the damage.

You Might Also Like

The focus of speculation now shifts to whether BTC can convert this rebound into the type of continuation that aligns with CZ’s prediction. 

For now, the situation is as follows: dips continue to produce liquidations, rebounds remain quick and the market reacts rapidly to any indication from the sector's leading figures.

Related articles

Bitcoin’s recent downturn may extend far longer than traders expect, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. Yong Ju says the market now appears “more bearish than I expected,” with weak liquidity conditions likely delaying any strong recovery for 3–6 months.

Ju explained that macro liquidity, not the on-chain cycle, is driving Bitcoin’s trajectory, noting that dollar liquidity is tightening while risk assets face persistent selling.

The CryptoQuant founder added that both on-chain and market signals indicate “weak liquidity for now,” reinforcing his earlier view that the classic on-chain bull cycle has already ended.

Ju maintains that a sharp bounce toward $100K is possible, but warns that if Bitcoin fails to break above that level, “another lower low becomes likely.”

Yong Ju’s long-term outlook aligns with Luke Gromen, Founder & President of Forest for the Trees. Gromen argues that the U.S. fiscal deficit and falling foreign demand for Treasuries are destabilizing the bond market.

Advertisement
 

Ju believes Bitcoin and gold should climb once liquidity returns next year.

That said, CoinMarketCap data on Bitcoin shows the market currently split between panicked selling and selective institutional conviction. Author Robert Kiyosaki sold $2.25M in BTC to fund cash-flow businesses. However, the investor stressed that he remains a long-term buyer.

In other news, ETF withdrawals intensified through November, totaling over $3.5 billion. That’s the biggest since. Combined with the Fear & Greed Index at 10 (“extreme fear”) and miner profitability near decade lows, analysts say the setup supports Ju’s expectation of a prolonged corrective phase.

Meanwhile, over 65 crypto firms are pushing the U.S. government for clearer tax rules, as developers advance BIP-360, a three-phase upgrade aimed at securing 25% of Bitcoin from potential quantum threats by 2030.

Bitcoin now sits at the crossroads of macro liquidity pressure, record ETF outflows, regulatory shifts, and long-term network upgrades. Whether institutional dip-buyers can counter accelerating redemptions may determine if Bitcoin stabilizes, or sinks into the deeper pullback Ju warns about.

Ethereum’s largest new treasury buyer keeps adding coins while a closely watched chart pattern defends a major retracement level. On-chain data from Arkham and wave analysis from Man of Bitcoin now point to a market where deep-pocket accumulation meets a potential inflection zone on the ETH chart.

Bitmine Adds 96,800 ETH as Tom Lee Keeps Buying the DipBlockchain analytics platform Arkham reported that ETH treasury company Bitmine bought 96,800 Ether in the past week, spending about $273.2 million at recent prices. The purchases came as ETH traded near $2,800, extending a steady accumulation pattern during recent market pullbacks.

Bitmine Ethereum Treasury Dashboard. Source: Arkham/X

The Arkham dashboard shows Bitmine now holding roughly 3.44 million ETH in its main wallets, with the position valued at around $10 billion. The portfolio screenshot lists ETH as the dominant asset, far ahead of smaller allocations to tokens such as IMAGE, IMPT, ELMO and MKR.

Arkham linked the activity to strategist Tom Lee, noting that Bitmine still has about $880 million in dry powder earmarked for additional ETH purchases. Consequently, the on-chain data indicates that the firm has been buying into each downward move, with capacity to continue adding if the price weakens again.

Analyst Says Ethereum Holds 78.6% Fib as Chart Signals Possible Wave-C StartMeanwhile, Ethereum reacted to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, according to trader Man of Bitcoin, who highlighted the move inside a corrective Elliott Wave structure. His chart shows ETH pulling back sharply from the November recovery, then finding support near $2,716 before recovering toward the $2,800 area. The rebound formed at the exact 78.6% zone marked for wave B, which he treats as the key point that must hold for the structure to stay intact.

Ethereum Elliott Wave Analysis Chart. Source: Man of Bitcoin

The image displays a descending trendline capping price since November, with ETH now attempting to stabilize directly beneath it. At the same time, the chart outlines the three main Fib retracement levels of 0.5 ($2,849), 0.618 ($2,794) and 0.786 ($2,716). ETH briefly dipped through the first two levels before responding at the lowest one, suggesting the broader market still respects the deeper retracement band during this correction.

His wave count labels the recent upward move as wave A and the current pullback as wave B within a larger wave iv. Because of that, he noted that ETH “should ideally remain above the last swing low” for the start of wave C to unfold. The chart also sketches a higher target zone near $3,167 to $3,356 for the next move, indicating where wave C could complete if the pattern holds and price breaks the descending trendline.

What to Know:

Over 1M XRP payments in a single day show how strong on-chain activity can grow even when the token price moves sideways. 
Markets are shifting toward crypto assets that support clear, repeatable real-world actions – payments, gaming, and creator monetization – instead of pure hype.
AI creator platforms keep running into the same problems: huge fees, random bans, clunky tools, and payments that change depending on your passport.
SUBBD Token ($SUBBD) mixes Web3 payouts, token-gated content, and AI tools to cut fees for creators and give fans programmable ways to access and support content. 

More than 1M XRP payments between unique wallets in a single day is the kind of number that slices through all the market noise.

Prices can wander. Sentiment can swing like a kid on too much sugar. But real on-chain usage shows where actual product-market fit is forming under the surface.

This jump in activity shows something very simple: when a network handles payments at scale without breaking a sweat, people use it.

Source: XRPSCAN
XRP has spent years proving it can move money fast and cheap for cross-border payments, even while its price deals with macro pressure and regulatory drama.

And now, the same filter is starting to shape the rest of the crypto market. Capital is moving away from ‘vibes first, utility later’ tokens toward projects with obvious, repeatable on-chain actions.

Payments, gaming, real-world assets, and especially creator monetization are where users are actually clicking buttons instead of just tweeting memes.

That’s the setup for SUBBD Token ($SUBBD), an AI-powered, Ethereum-based content platform token.

As networks like XRP show how to move value at scale, projects like $SUBBD are trying to give that value a destination: tokenized content, AI creators, and programmable fan worlds.

Why Payments-Scale Activity Is Repricing Utility Narratives
1M daily XRP payments between unique wallets highlight how fast real demand can settle on a chain once latency, fees, and reliability are solved.

For builders, the lesson is almost boring in its simplicity: keep finality close to real-time and fees next to zero, and users will show up, even when the macro backdrop looks gloomy.

The same pattern is showing up in the creator economy. Web2 platforms often take 30%-50% of earnings once you add up fees, revenue splits, and the joy of unpredictable algorithms.

Creators get reach, but they lose control of their money and sometimes even their accounts. A random ban can shut down income overnight. It’s like building a business on quicksand.

AI creator platforms are rising to fight this. Some Web3 projects offer token-gated content and NFT drops. Pure AI startups deliver fancy creation tools but keep payments centralized.

The SUBBD platform aims to be the middle option: a hybrid that believes creator earnings, AI productivity, and on-chain payments belong together, not scattered across five apps and two spreadsheets.

How SUBBD Token ($SUBBD) Turns AI, Web3 and Fans Into One Revenue Engine
Most platforms tape crypto or AI on top like an afterthought, but the SUBBD Token ($SUBBD) sits at the center of everything this platform does.

SUBBD is a new crypto project designed in a way that AI tools, creator features, and on-chain payouts all flow through the token instead of being bolted on later.

On the infrastructure side, the SUBBD platform uses Ethereum-compatible smart contracts that power tokenized access, staking, and governance.

On the AI side, creators get tools for content generation, chatbots, voice cloning, and object recognition, which help them work faster without losing their minds.

The main problem $SUBBD tackles is simple and painful: creators losing up to 70% of their income to platforms, payment processors, and every middleman who wants a slice.

Add the constant fear of bans or demonetization, and the whole thing becomes a stressful business model.

SUBBD solves this by routing earnings through the $SUBBD token, giving creators crypto payouts, global reach without banking friction, and token-gated exclusives they fully control.

Experience is where SUBBD tries to stand out. The AI Personal Assistant handles automated DMs, fan chats, and custom replies. AI voice cloning and AI influencer creation let creators experiment with new personas and new languages without hiring extra help.

Fans, meanwhile, receive subscriptions, access to exclusive content, pay-per-view drops, NFT sales, tipping, and even AI-only experiences in one place. In other words, it’s a win-win for both creators and their fans.

Why $SUBBD Matters Right Now
The SUBBD Token ($SUBBD) design tries to keep users engaged.

The presale has already raised $1.3M+, which signals early demand for a creator-focused token instead of just another meme coin. Right now, you can buy $SUBBD for just $0.0571.

➡️ Check out our guide to buying $SUBBD if you plan to join the presale.

A fixed 20% APY staking rate in year one rewards early holders with exclusive livestreams, in-house content, daily behind-the-scenes drops, and XP boosts for future perks.

To explore more possible upside scenarios and market positions, take a look at our SUBBD price prediction and compare it with your own view before deciding whether to invest in SUBBD Token.

On-chain, holders can vote on new features, creator onboarding, themes, events, and which AI creators get highlighted. This governance layer pushes SUBBD closer to a programmable content marketplace rather than a static subscription site.

As more value flows through high-throughput networks, the bet is that creator tokens like $SUBBD become one of the main places that value wants to land.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research before investing in crypto.

Authored by Aaron Walker, NewsBTC – https://www.newsbtc.com/news/xrp-price-prediction-1m-payments-boost-subbd-token

XRP sits around $2.00 as of now, but is another rally brewing?

Ripple’s XRP, alongside the rest of the cryptocurrency market, went through the wringer in the past few months, but there’s some hope on the horizon.

Data shared by popular analyst CW shows that the XRP spot volume has calmed lately, which, history suggests, could mean a price bottom and a subsequent rally.

The $XRP spot volume bubble map shows the current state of cooling.

In general, cooling phase indicates oversold and it is most appears in the bottom state.$XRP ETFs are being continuously listed, and global liquidity is increasing. With the continued listing of ETFs, $XRP is… pic.twitter.com/tfkW8ZsfFr

— CW (@CW8900) December 2, 2025

The bubble map above aligns with previous reports indicating that the overall market calamity that took place since early October has mostly been influenced by leveraged trading.

For XRP, in particular, this map shows that when the spot volume overheats (red dots), the asset enters a prolonged correction phase. However, this hasn’t been the case for the past few months, as the last sizeable red dots came after the late 2024/early 2025 rally to $3.40.

Consequently, CW determined that the current spot volume levels mean XRP is in a “state of cooling,” which “indicates oversold” and has historically appeared during the price bottom phases.

The analyst believes this period won’t last long as new XRP ETFs launch almost every week and the inflows are quite impressive. In fact, the spot Ripple funds have performed a lot better than their BTC, ETH, and SOL counterparts since the first one hit the US markets in mid-November.

You may also like:

Ripple (XRP) ETFs Reign Supreme as Total Inflows Surpass Bitcoin, Ethereum Funds

Why CoinShares Just Quit the $600M XRP and SOL ETF Battle

Binance XRP Reserves Sink to All-Time Low: Good or Bad for Ripple’s Price?

CW added that global liquidity is increasing, which, alongside the growing inflows into the spot XRP ETFs, could result in a significant price expansion for the underlying token. For now, though, XRP remains just inches above the pivotal $2.00 support. It’s still in the red on a yearly scale, although the company behind it has recorded its best year to date.

Tags:

About the author

Jordan got into crypto in 2016 by trading and investing. He began writing about blockchain technology in 2017 and now serves as CryptoPotato's Assistant Editor-in-Chief. He has managed numerous crypto-related projects and is passionate about all things blockchain.

Tue, 2/12/2025 - 13:57

Bitcoin is seeing a substantial drop in exchange supplies, which could be a trigger for a potential surge of buying activity on the market.

Cover image via U.Today

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Exchange balances for Bitcoin have plummeted to new multiyear lows, falling to about 2.19 million BTC, a level not seen in a very long time. On paper, that sounds like the perfect setup for a classic supply shock: fewer coins available for sale, rising scarcity and the potential for an outsized upside reaction once demand reignites.  

Bitcoin's price outlookThe chart of exchange balances shows an unbroken, steady decline over the past year. This is not just a short-term blip — it is a structural trend. Simultaneously, Bitcoin has been steadily declining from the $110,000-$120,000 range, failing to maintain any significant support as it returns to the high-$80,000s. 

A bullish narrative is typically supported by a declining supply, but price action indicates that demand is not strong enough to take advantage of it. If anything, the market has been absorbing reduced sell-side pressure with surprisingly weak buying interest.

HOT Stories

BTC/USDT Chart by TradingViewLooking at the BTC/USD chart in greater detail, we can see that Bitcoin is still trapped below the 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs, a complete bearish stack. The breakdown from the rising wedge in November triggered a clean trend reversal, and every bounce since has been shallow, low-volume and unable to reclaim resistance. The RSI recovering from oversold territory is normal after a big flush, but it does not signal strength by itself.

Exchange reserves are thinWhat implications does this have for the supply shock argument? There is potential. Thin exchange reserves would amplify the move if demand suddenly increased due to ETF flows, macro easing or the return of liquidity. But the current market environment is the exact opposite: declining spot demand, weakened momentum, miners under pressure and a broadly risk-off backdrop. A supply shock only becomes significant when demand is excessive. Right now, it is not even mildly impressive.

You Might Also Like

In short, Bitcoin’s low exchange reserves are a bullish long-term structural signal — but they are not enough to move the market on their own. A true supply shock is more wishful thinking than a plausible scenario until Bitcoin can regain important resistances and buyers demonstrate genuine conviction.

Related articles

Ethereum is struggling to reclaim momentum after a sharp 6% drop in the last 24 hours pushed the altcoin king back from the critical $3,000 barrier. 

The level has acted as both psychological and technical resistance, and the latest rejection comes at a time when some of Ethereum’s most influential holders are pulling back.

Ethereum Holders’ Supply DropsHODL Waves data shows that Ethereum’s long-term holders (LTHs) have been offloading their assets since early November. This selling pressure intensified around November 19, leading to a meaningful reduction in the supply controlled by the 2-to-3-year cohort. Their share of the circulating supply dropped from 8.51% to 7.33%, a clear sign that this group moved to offset losses and reduce risk exposure.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Given that LTHs tend to be the most stable participants in the Ethereum ecosystem, their selling has had a direct impact on price performance. More importantly, their positions have not recovered since the sell-off, creating a supply gap that new investors will need to fill if ETH is to regain upward momentum.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Ethereum HODL Waves. Source: GlassnodeFortunately, Ethereum is seeing encouraging signs of new demand. Over the past seven days, new addresses on the network have surged 13.4%, rising from 141,650 to 160,690. This marks the strongest weekly jump in more than two and a half months and signals fresh investor interest despite the recent correction.

New addresses often translate into new capital flowing into the market, which is critical for Ethereum as it attempts to stabilize above key support levels. However, sustaining this growth is essential. If the influx of new holders slows, the market may not be able to compensate for the missing LTH participation. 

Ethereum New Addresses. Source: GlassnodeETH Price Is Yet To Find A DirectionEthereum is trading at $2,805 at the time of writing, reflecting a 6% daily decline. The asset is sitting just below the $2,814 resistance level after its latest failed attempt to break through $3,000.

Based on current sentiment and market structure, ETH could stabilize and attempt a rebound, but a strong recovery will require consistent investor support. In the near term, Ethereum will likely fluctuate between $2,814 and $3,000 as it searches for direction.

ETH Price Analysis. Source: TradingViewIf bullish momentum strengthens and fresh demand remains steady, Ethereum could finally break above the $3,000 barrier. A successful breach would pave the way for a move toward $3,131 and potentially $3,287. This would invalidating the short-term bearish thesis.

Bitcoin clings to the upper edge of its daily range at $87,818, flaunting a market cap of $1.739 trillion while pushing $72.66 billion in volume across a volatile session capped between $83,989 and $87,820.

TL;DR

The number of wallets holding more than 100 million XRP has fallen more than 20% in eight weeks, while the remaining large holders now control a seven-year high of 48 billion XRP.
On-chain data shows supply consolidation as major entities adjust positions after strong US spot ETF inflows.
Despite short-term pressure, long-term accumulation among top-tier holders remains evident.

The XRP Ledger is experiencing a significant adjustment as high-value wallet counts decline while the remaining large holders accumulate at levels not seen since 2018. On-chain patterns indicate that whales are reshaping their exposure amid rising institutional participation and shifting supply dynamics.

🐳 XRP Ledger is seeing a fascinating trend of whale & shark wallets shrinking in number, but continuing to grow in coins held. There are -20.6% less 100M+ $XRP wallets compared to 8 weeks ago, but they still own a 7-year high 48B coins collectively.

🔗 https://t.co/vvuvnoGOQJ pic.twitter.com/UKFTmUofmg

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 1, 2025

XRP Ledger Whale Dynamics Shift
Santiment data shows that 100M+ XRP wallets dropped more than 20% over the past two months, marking one of the steepest contractions recorded for this tier. More than 560 wallets exited the bracket since late September, yet total holdings rose above 48 billion XRP, a level aligned with seven-year highs.

This movement reflects a redistribution phase where exiting large holders leave room for deeper concentration among long-term participants. When XRP traded near $2.85 three months ago, the number of wallets in this tier exceeded 2,000, although total holdings were slightly lower. During the mid-2025 peak, when XRP touched $3.65, holdings were dispersed and showed less consolidation than the current structure.

Institutional Demand And XRP Ledger Activity
Institutional exposure increased following the debut of spot XRP ETFs in the US, which attracted more than $756 million in net inflows across November. These allocations contributed to observable shifts in upper wallet tiers as large entities broadened their positions.
Network activity mirrored this trend. The XRP Ledger processed more than 40,000 configuration transactions in the final week of November, linked to custodial setups, multisignature updates, and AMM adjustments supporting new financial products. 

Market Position And Price Outlook
XRP continues to face rejection near the $2.50 resistance zone and currently trades close to $2.00, down about 9% for the week. Resistance remains concentrated between 2.2752 and 2.5808, limiting short-term recoveries. Some analysts note a bullish pennant forming above the 50 EMA, which now acts as support after serving as resistance in previous cycles.

Overall, the combination of shrinking whale wallet counts and rising aggregate holdings indicates that influential holders remain active. As ETF products expand and infrastructure updates increase on the XRP Ledger, market participants continue monitoring how this consolidation could set the stage for XRP’s next decisive move.

An Ethereum ICO whale resurfaced after more than a decade and shifted 40,000 ETH straight into staking instead of sending it to exchanges. The move came as other major holders sent large batches of ETH to Kraken and as the market broke through key resistance levels.

Ethereum ICO Whale Stakes 40,000 ETH After a Decade of SilenceAn early Ethereum ICO wallet holding 40,000 ETH — worth about $120 million — has moved for the first time in more than 10 years and sent the funds to staking rather than to an exchange, on-chain data shows.

Ethereum ICO Wallet Staking Move. Source: Lookonchain

On-chain tracker Lookonchain reported that the address starting with 0x2dCA woke up after long dormancy and began transferring ETH in batches to a new wallet. From there, the coins flowed in multiple 32-ETH transactions to the Beacon Deposit Contract, which is used to activate Ethereum validators.

Because each validator requires 32 ETH, the 40,000 ETH position is enough to run around 1,250 validators. As the screenshot from Etherscan indicates, the new wallet repeatedly sent 32 ETH “Deposit” transactions to the Beacon contract over the past few minutes.

The original wallet received its ETH during Ethereum’s 2014 initial coin offering and had not shown activity since then. Now, instead of sending the coins to trading venues, the owner has locked them into Ethereum’s proof-of-stake system, shifting the funds from liquid supply into long-term staking.

Whale Sends 10,176 ETH to Kraken After 100-Day sETH HoldAn Ethereum whale moved 10,176 ETH, worth about $28.69 million, to Kraken after unwinding a large stETH position, on-chain data shows. The address converted the staked ETH (sETH) back to ETH, then sent the full stack to the exchange in two large deposits.

Whale ETH Deposit to Kraken. Source: Onchain Lens

The wallet, tagged “Token Millionaire” and identified as 0xd908995fd431eb0078cd35e912ff14e45043818f, can be tracked for roughly five years, according to Nansen. Back in 2019, the same entity withdrew 21,086 ETH valued at $7.35 million and has since been slowly returning coins to exchanges.

Now, with this latest 10,176 ETH transfer following a 100-day hold in sETH, the whale has pushed a major chunk of its historical stash back toward trading venues.

ETH Breakout Accelerates as Price Clears Key Resistance LevelsEthereum’s chart shows a decisive breakout after reclaiming two major horizontal zones that capped price action through the second half of the year. The move above the first resistance near the 3,000–3,100 USD area shifted momentum, while the clean push through the 3,600–3,700 USD band confirmed strength and removed the last major supply block before higher targets.

Ethereum Breakout Structure. Source: GordonGekko

The chart highlights how ETH built a base around 2,650 USD, where buyers repeatedly absorbed sell pressure. That zone acted as the cycle’s main demand layer. Each rebound from this region strengthened the structure and narrowed the distance to the overhead levels.

Once ETH drove through the upper resistance, candles extended vertically. This shows aggressive follow-through, with very little pause between sessions. The current trend reflects strong market conviction, as the breakout did not face meaningful rejection after retesting the range.

Gordon’s post frames the move as a setup for a broader upside continuation. His chart underscores that ETH has removed the major barriers visible on the daily timeframe. With both resistance shelves now behind price, the structure points to open air above, although traders still watch for potential retests or consolidation phases after such a steep run.

Bitcoin is unlikely to drop below $50k, let alone to $35k, one analyst tweeted on X (formerly Twitter). The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is currently trading nervously below $88k at press time, under mounting bearish pressure.

Some analysts have already declared that the bear market has officially arrived and are gearing up for a major buying opportunity near the anticipated market bottom. However, predicting the bottom or the top in a Bitcoin 4-year cycle is easier said than done, with multiple variables affecting the overall outcome. There is also the question of whether the bear market has started at all, or the bull market has just been delayed for the time being.

$35k Bitcoin is Out of the Question?
In a lengthy tweet, Skydolic, a crypto analyst with a strong base, argues against a major price drop in Bitcoin’s valuation. He posted:

“…., I am seeing people talking about $35k levels next year, and it’s absolute rubbish.

Firstly, for Bitcoin to retrace 75% it actually has to fully expand, and this cycle, it just did not do that.

Advertisement
 

Those kinds of retraces are only possible because the level of expansion makes that level of contraction possible.

You can see on the 1M RSI that we barely even touched any degree of overbought, for the first time ever.

Every previous cycle has had huge pushes into the upper band of oversold.

Secondly, even if this is the big bad bear market, Bitcoin has never breached the lower 1M Bollinger bands on its bottom.

And that is currently at $55k….”

He also attached this graph to his descriptive analysis:

Image Source: X
According to Skyodelic, the absolute worst-case scenario bottom for this time around would be around the $55k level. This is a much higher figure than those quoted by other analysts, ranging from $45k to as low as $35k. 

But, Skyodelic is adamant that such a scenario will not present itself because of two factors:

Bollinger Bands (BBs) at cycle bottoms have never been breached on the downside. They have acted as a historical floor in previous cycles as well
The recent ending of the Quantitative Tightening policy in the United States

The Future
BB is considered an important crypto analytical tool that has helped traders predict market crashes and booms over the years. They are popular for analyzing assets with high volatility, which is ideal for BTC, as it often experiences violent contractions and expansions. 

However, BTC’s unpredictable nature has a history of shattering previous trends. The 4th quarter of 2025 has so far been the worst in history, and we are approaching a time when the 4-year cycle might become irrelevant, or at least stretched to say the least.

The Hyperliquid price faces growing downside pressure as bullish volume fades and the $29 support zone struggles to hold, raising the risk of a deeper correction toward $19.

Summary

Bearish structure confirmed through persistent lower highs and lower lows.
Fading bullish volume leaves the $29 value area low vulnerable to breakdown.
Losing $29 increases risk of a rapid corrective move toward $19 support.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) price is entering a critical stage in its market cycle as the price continues to show significant signs of weakness. The asset has struggled to regain momentum after losing the point of control, and bearish market structure remains dominant.

With bullish volume fading and support levels thinning beneath the current price, Hyperliquid is at risk of a sharper corrective move that could send the asset to its next major support near $19. This comes as Paxos selects Plume, Hyperliquid, and Aptos as the primary networks for the USDGO stablecoin launch, although the announcement has not yet influenced immediate price action. 

Hyperliquid price key technical points

Bearish structure confirmed through consecutive lower highs and lower lows.
Loss of the point of control has pushed price back toward the $29 value area low.
Breakdown below $29 increases the probability of a deeper corrective move toward $19.

HyperLiquid (1D) Chart, Source: TradingView
Hyperliquid continues to struggle under a clearly defined bearish market structure. The asset has been forming consistent lower highs and lower lows, indicating sustained downward pressure across multiple time frames. This structure intensified first when the point of control was lost, shifting momentum firmly in favor of sellers. Since then, Hyperliquid has not shown a meaningful recovery and has instead slipped back into a key support zone around $29.

The $29 region is essential not only because it represents a psychological level but also because it aligns with the trading range’s low-value area. This confluence makes it a natural area for potential accumulation. However, accumulation has not been significant.

Bullish volume has remained weak and insufficient to reclaim lost structure, allowing sellers to maintain dominance. This lack of demand has kept Hyperliquid vulnerable, particularly as price continues to hover near the lower boundary of the range.

One of the clearest warning signals is how close price action has come to breaking below the $29 low on a closing basis. A confirmed candle close beneath this level would represent a structural shift and likely trigger an expansion of bearish momentum. Without decisive buyer intervention, such a breakdown typically results in an impulsive move toward the next support level in the higher time frame. For Hyperliquid, that support sits at the $19 level, making it the next logical target if the current level fails.

The fading bullish volume adds further weight to this bearish scenario. Historically, Hyperliquid has only managed meaningful recoveries when volume inflows expanded at major support zones. At present, no such inflow is visible. 

Hyperliquid has also recently responded to criticism, suggesting it prioritizes revenue over trader needs, but this clarification has not translated into improved short-term price behavior. Selling pressure has remained consistent while the attempts to bounce from support have been shallow and short-lived.

This imbalance between supply and demand is a strong indicator that downside continuation remains more likely unless market conditions shift significantly.

What to expect in the coming price action
If the $29 support continues to weaken and price closes below this level, Hyperliquid is likely to accelerate toward the $19 zone. A strong reaction from buyers at $29 would be needed to halt the bearish continuation. Without a decisive shift in volume, the short-term outlook remains strongly bearish.

Cronos (CRO) was also a top performer, up 7.6% from Monday.