Market Signal Briefing

SummaryHormel Foods trades near its 52-week low, offering a compelling entry for value investors with a 4.7% dividend yield.HRL demonstrates solid organic growth in retail, foodservice, and international segments, driven by strong brands and ongoing innovation.Despite margin pressure from higher input costs, HRL's transformation and modernization initiatives support long-term growth and operational efficiency.I rate HRL stock as a 'buy' for its dividend strength, earnings growth potential, and attractive valuation, targeting mid-teens total returns.Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of iREIT®+HOYA Capital get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More » CatLane/E+ via Getty Images

I’ve largely stayed on the sidelines over the past year on food stocks, as headwinds from inflation and the ‘MAHA’ movement have pressured prices in the sector. However, I find the valuations now to be compelling, providing an attractive entry point

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of HRL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I am not an investment advisor. This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute as financial advice. Readers are encouraged and expected to perform due diligence and draw their own conclusions prior to making any investment decisions.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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It’s been a tough year for Starbucks NASDAQ: SBUX. The king of coffee retail chains has seen its stock slide more than 25% from its year-to-date (YTD) high on Feb. 23, and when it reported Q3 earnings on July 29, it missed analysts’ estimates by nearly 28%.  

Starbucks Today

$86.42 -0.30 (-0.35%)

As of 10/3/2025 04:00 PM Eastern

52-Week Range$75.50▼

$117.46Dividend Yield2.82%

P/E Ratio37.25

Price Target$104.00

While some of that may reflect cyclical consumer behavior amid all-time high coffee prices—both as a global commodity and for U.S. retail prices—Starbucks has also suffered from poor optics. Multi-year protests by labor union supporters as well as a boycott campaign rooted in the Israel-Gaza conflict has bled into 2025, significantly impacting the company’s sales.

Get Starbucks alerts:

Last week, the coffee chain announced plans to close stores and conduct another round of layoffs. But as Starbucks debuts a new strategic plan to bolster sales, there are fundamental issues that may go unanswered. Meanwhile, one competitor is making waves and providing an alternative for investors looking to harness the upside potential of a company that went public in 2021 and is now the fastest-growing retail coffee chain. 

Starbucks’ Struggles Aren’t Isolated to Last Quarter
Despite a small revenue increase in Q3, Starbucks saw comparable store sales as well as transactions decline significantly throughout the first second and third quarters of its fiscal year. In response, chairman and CEO Brian Niccol announced in late September a restructuring plan billed as “Back to Starbucks.” 

As part of that new strategy, which entails a $1 billion restructuring, 900 non-retail employees will be laid off. This marks the second round of layoffs with Niccol at the helm, following 1,100 workers being let go earlier in 2025. Other notable features of the “Back to Starbucks” plan include the return of the condiment bar, a marketing shift away from highlighting discounts, and efforts to increase pricing transparency—for example, by removing upcharges for non-dairy milk. 

However welcome those measures may be, bringing back condiment bars doesn’t appear to be the solution to more systemic issues that the company faces. In April, a lawsuit was filed against Starbucks by Brazilian workers who alleged forced labor in the company’s coffee supply chain. One month later, hundreds of its baristas across the United States staged walkouts to protest a new dress code policy, and in September, the union representing its eligible workers claimed that 59 of the locations Starbucks has decided to close were unionized stores. 

The restructuring plan will come at a sizable cost, too. According to a Form 8-K filing Starbucks made with the SEC, the company is expected to have to shell out $150 million in employee separation costs (e.g., severance pay, unemployment taxes and administrative tasks such as exit interviews and payroll updates) and another $850 million in payments related to its store closures (e.g., breaking leases due to store closures before the end of contractual terms). 

While the company remains a decent option for income investors—its dividend currently yields 2.81%, or $2.44 per share annually—its dividend payout ratio of 105.17% is an enormous red flag and seemingly unsustainable.  

One Competitor Undergoing Rapid Expansion
While the impacts of the “Back to Starbucks” strategic plan won’t materialize for some time, it is a clear indication—underscored by downsizing its location and staffing footprints—that the company is not in growth mode. 

But for investors who are dialed into America’s insatiable appetite for coffee, it isn’t all bad news. Other retailers operating in the consumer discretionary sector are providing better upside potential, stronger earnings, and better growth prospects.

Dutch Bros Today

$50.52 -1.81 (-3.46%)

As of 10/3/2025 03:59 PM Eastern

This is a fair market value price provided by Polygon.io. Learn more.

52-Week Range$30.49▼

$86.88P/E Ratio107.49

Price Target$79.88

Dutch Bros NYSE: BROS continues to outperform Starbucks in share appreciation, earnings, and revenue growth. The company, which went public in September 2021, is favored among Wall Street, with higher institutional ownership at nearly 86% versus Starbucks’ 72%. 

Last quarter, Dutch Bros beat on earnings by 44.44% while seeing its quarterly revenue grow 28% year-over-year. The company is expected to grow its earnings 38.60% next year. Analysts are in agreement that Dutch Bros’ performance over the next year will outperform that of Starbucks, with an average 12-month price target of $79.88 representing nearly 52% upside potential from today’s share price.

Since the stock ran up in the wake of its blowout Q2 earnings call in August, BROS has retraced nearly 30%. But it appears to have found support just above its YTD low set on April 4. With a current Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 29.97, the stock is considered oversold, which could foretell the start of a dramatic near-term price reversal. The last time Dutch Bros’ RSI was in oversold territory on July 24, it preceded a 27% gain through Aug. 28. 

Should You Invest $1,000 in Starbucks Right Now?Before you consider Starbucks, you'll want to hear this.

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Lighter, a decentralized perpetuals trading protocol, has officially gone live with its Ethereum Layer 2 mainnet after eight months of intensive beta testing. Positioned as a direct competitor to Hyperliquid and other decentralized derivatives platforms, Lighter is seeking to redefine the way perpetual trading functions in the onchain economy.

The leading cryptocurrency's previous all-time high was set on Aug. 14 around $124,533, according to Coinbase.

The ultimate battlefield: 1inch cofounder Sergej Kunz is coming for centralized exchanges Christina Comben · 24 seconds ago · 4 min read

1inch co-founder Sergej Kunz is transforming DeFi by uniting fragmented liquidity, pioneering seamless cross-chain swaps, and laying the groundwork for a UX to render centralized exchanges obsolete.

Oct. 5, 2025 at 2:00 pm UTC

4 min read

Updated: Oct. 4, 2025 at 11:59 am UTC

Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate. Image includes combined content which may include AI-generated content.

Welcome to Slate Sunday, CryptoSlate’s weekly feature showcasing in-depth interviews, expert analysis, and thought-provoking op-eds that go beyond the headlines to explore the ideas and voices shaping the future of crypto.

Ask 1inch co-founder Sergej Kunz about where DeFi is headed, and you’ll get more than just your standard answer about financial inclusion or a hedge against fiat collapse.

Kunz isn’t one to mince his words, and he dives into the future of the sector like a hunter tracking his prey; focused, relentless, and entirely undaunted. For Kunz, DeFi’s future is seamless and, ultimately, peer-to-peer, delivering a UX so smooth it makes centralized exchanges obsolete.

As the leading DEX aggregator and DeFi ecosystem, complete with a sleek new rebrand, 1inch recently integrated with Solana and launched native, decentralized swaps spanning over 12 EVM networks. Smiling broadly, Kunz lays it out:

“We recognized that we need to grow; the whole DeFi space is not just on Ethereum anymore.”

It’s a sign of the times. From its early days in 2019, 1inch was strictly an Ethereum story, riding the first wave of DeFi innovation. Kunz recalls:

“We started on Ethereum. It was only Ethereum. And we added more EVM-compatible chains like Binance Smart Chain, Polygon, all the layers.”

Now, 14 chains later (with Solana joining the pack in April of this year), one thing is clear: DeFi’s borders get blurrier by the week, and his vision of seamless interoperability between ecosystems is no longer a distant dream.

“We started to combine the DeFi space, all the chains together, and now growing to non-EVM compatible chains. We will also add Bitcoin and all other blockchains that we can integrate for the cross-chain swaps, so we can unite all the liquidity in one single place.”

If it sounds ambitious, that’s probably because it is. Kunz isn’t the type of person to settle for second best. And why stick with fragmented liquidity when one platform can unite it all?

1inch: trustless swaps and seamless executionKunz’s relentless cross-chain focus comes paired with a laser eye on both security and price. He’s emphatic about user autonomy and respecting the core pillars of decentralized finance (like removing the middleman).

“Our value proposition is non-custodial swaps, which means no one needs to trust anyone. And the second value proposition is the best execution on the most liquidity that is available out there.”

But uniting liquidity means more than just technical gymnastics. There’s a longer-term goal, and it’s about rendering centralized exchanges to a footnote in crypto history. He affirms:

“Theoretically, no one needs centralized exchanges by using 1inch.”

Kunz insists that the magic of 1inch lies in user experience, unifying the UX across multiple ecosystems and chains.

But how close is DeFi to that mythical single-click, chain-agnostic flow that web2 users want?

“We are almost there,” he says. “Right now, when you do a cross-chain swap, you just connect your wallet, you click, and you confirm. You don’t do any transaction by yourself.”

Intent-based protocols, or ‘solving your own problem’Behind the scenes, it’s taken innovation. The 1inch protocol was invented in 2022 as a means of making DeFi fairer and combating “sandwich attacks,” the particular brand of front-running that haunts liquidity providers and traders alike. He explains:

“We call it an intent-based protocol for swaps.”

That phrase, ‘intent-based protocol’, has been cropping up everywhere lately. Uniswap X has written about it, and, in fact, Kunz points out that Uniswap X is based on 1inch’s idea; it is even cited in their whitepaper.

“We can create a protocol that sells user orders to market makers, arbitrage traders, and let the market makers compete between each other.”

Kunz compares 1inch’s approach to traditional exchanges like the Nasdaq, in that people create orders and market makers fill them. What’s different here is giving the order directly to an open, competitive ecosystem of professional traders who come first, settle first, and also partially fill. The numbers prove the point:

“We have use cases where someone exchanged 12 million USDT to Ethereum and got $135,000 more. If they did it by themselves using a DEX directly, they would get less.”

He recounts his own experience with sandwich attacks, saying:

“I was sandwiched… front-run by a malicious exchange. And I recognized, okay, we need to fix this.”

The intent-based protocol was, therefore, born from necessity, he says with a grin:

“I solved my own problem. No one can sandwich you or manipulate the liquidity.”

From DeFi to the broader crypto spaceThe conversation turns to stablecoins and the user experience gaps between chains. I point out that, despite the improvements, DeFi is still fiendishly tricky for normies to navigate, switching between networks and setting up wallets. He shrugs and says the ultimate goal is for users to never need to worry about networks or bridges.

“It should be that users should not care about the chain… they should just care what they have in USDC.”

As the roadmap stretches forward, growth is the only certainty for Kunz.

“We unite DeFi liquidity… and then we go to the crypto space. We integrate Bitcoin. You can buy any sh*t coin, memecoin, whatever coin. You can buy real Bitcoin, you get it in your wallet, and you can also sell Bitcoin. Same for Litecoin, same for Ripple.”

1inch’s vision is clear: to grow from the “small DeFi space” to the broader web3 world, and eventually touch traditional finance as well. He elaborates:

“A lot of companies right now, all the banks, do tokenization of real-world assets, but there’s no secondary trading place where you can trade them in one place. You need to go to every issuer, maybe to a bank, to a single bank, for example, to buy tokenized wine. You cannot just offer it like that. You need proper regulation for that… Our plan is to offer our protocols and our software service APIs for institutions to exchange such assets in a highly safe, non-custodial manner.”

The showdown with centralized exchangesAnd what’s on the immediate horizon for 1inch? Kunz explains that the one-to-three-year plan is to “push forward,” integrate more chains, go more cross-chain, and provide a more seamless experience. Finally, he says with a glint in his eye:

“To battle, test, and compete with centralized exchanges.”

Did I mention that Kunz was ambitious?

While most at the helm of CEXs envision a world where DeFi and CeFi coexist, the juggernauts of decentralized finance don’t easily forget being front-run.

And, with centralized exchange spot volume dropping nearly 28% in Q2 2025, CEXs should be sleeping with one eye open. DeFi is coming for their lunch.

Mentioned in this article

Sun, 5/10/2025 - 13:23

XRP enters new stage of adoption, and it's about privacy, Ripple CEO confirms

Cover image via U.Today

Ripple CEO confirmed the next stage for XRP’s institutional adoption, and it is privacy. That’s what prominent XRP Ledger contributor, known online as Vet, shared in a recent X post with a photo of him speaking directly to Garlinghouse, Ripple’s chief executive.

Garlinghouse’s answer highlights what many in the XRP Ledger community already see as the final gap in the ecosystem. The network has introduced decentralized identifiers (DID), on-chain credentials and permissioned domains to bring compliance into the picture.

It now supports multipurpose tokens (MPTs) for efficient tokenization, along with a native DEX that combines AMM liquidity with an order book.

HOT Stories

I asked Brad here what's the path to get more institutional adoption on the XRP Ledger, so that institutions are comfortable with sharing tx hashes with us.

>He said privacy.

Fast forward it all makes sense and fits nicely together.

We passed many compliance amendments like… pic.twitter.com/OfTSBvATEH

— Vet 🏴‍☠️ (@Vet_X0) October 5, 2025 What remains, according to both developers and Ripple leadership, is a privacy layer. That includes lending and borrowing functions under proposal XLS-66, where institutions could use tokenized real-world assets as collateral, while zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) keep balances and transfers confidential.

Privacy here is not about secrecy from regulators, but about allowing institutions to protect sensitive data from competitors while still proving compliance on-chain.

Trillions for private XRPRipple’s Senior Director of Engineering Ayo Akinyele recently pointed out that trillions in institutional assets are likely to move on-chain in the coming decade, and privacy will be central to making that happen. His team is already working on confidential MPTs, scheduled for launch in Q1, 2026, which would allow private collateral management at scale.

With smart escrows under XLS-100 and smart contracts under XLS-101 tying these functions together, privacy is the bridge Akinyele expects will carry XRP Ledger into its institutional era.

Related articles

MetaMask plans to launch a major on-chain rewards program within the next few weeks, distributing over $30 million in LINEA (LINEA) tokens during Season 1.

Summary

The move signals MetaMask’s push to deepen user engagement ahead of a potential token launch, as major Web3 platforms race to reward loyal users and solidify community ecosystems.
By combining on-chain incentives with a forthcoming token narrative, MetaMask is positioning itself at the center of the next wave of decentralized user growth.

One of the largest on-chain rewards programs ever
The Consensys-owned Web3 wallet described the initiative as “one of the largest on-chain rewards programs ever built,” designed to regularly give back to its community.

gm foxes 🦊

Yes, a rewards program is on the way. 👀

Any of the details you've previously seen/heard are not indicative of what is to actually launch. Let's talk a little bit about what the actual MetaMask Rewards program WILL be.

This program will yield referral rewards, mUSD…

— MetaMask.eth 🦊 (@MetaMask) October 4, 2025

The program will feature referral bonuses, mUSD stablecoin incentives, partner rewards, and token access. Long-time MetaMask users will receive special perks, tying into the future MetaMask token teased by Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin in September.

MetaMask clarified that earlier leaks about the program’s details did not reflect its actual launch parameters. The platform is tailoring incentives to different user groups, with a focus on veteran supporters.

LINEA tokens will serve as the main reward for Season 1. Linea, an Ethereum Layer 2 network also incubated by Consensys, launched its native token in September through a 9.4 billion token airdrop.

The program also integrates MetaMask’s new mUSD stablecoin, issued by Stripe-owned Bridge, which launched on Ethereum and Linea but does not offer yield-bearing features.

Questions remain about geographic eligibility and anti-Sybil measures to prevent abuse through multiple accounts.

The announcement drew mixed reactions on X. Crypto streamer Gainzy responded sarcastically, writing, “[T]his will go over well and no one will be disgusted and insult you.”

The skepticism highlights broader concerns that token and rewards programs often favor insiders over regular community members.

MetaMask’s insistence that the initiative isn’t a “farming play” appears aimed at easing those fears. The link to a potential MASK token has also fueled speculation about how participation might influence future token allocations.

Walmart-backed fintech platform OnePay is preparing to add cryptocurrency trading to its mobile banking app, a move that positions the retail giant's financial arm firmly in the middle of the growing digital asset economy. The integration, set to roll out later this year, will allow users to buy, sell, and custody Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) directly within the app.

With Bitcoin (BTC) hitting a new all-time high above $125,000, an analyst has noted that the asset is likely to see more momentum, but investors should also expect a correction.

According to analysis by CrediBULL Crypto, the current rally marks the beginning of a broader move toward $150,000 and beyond, though a retracement to lower levels would be both natural and healthy for the market.

In an X post on October 5, the analyst highlighted that Bitcoin is in the early stages of a new five-wave impulse pattern. 

Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: CrediBULL Crypto
Following the initial breakout, a corrective wave could drive prices back toward a key demand zone between $108,000 and $118,000. 

This area is identified as a potential accumulation zone where traders who previously shorted the market may be forced to cover, adding strong support.

Additionally, the analyst noted that short-sellers between $118,000 and $108,000 are now trapped after the breakout, making this zone a likely area of significant buying pressure if retested. 

Now, any dip into this range would be a “blessing,” while avoiding a pullback could see Bitcoin surge past $150,000. 

Whales showing more interest in Bitcoin
On-chain data further supports the possibility of continued momentum as large investors show growing confidence in the asset. 

To this end, data shared by Ali Martinez indicates that Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score has climbed to 0.74, reflecting steady balance growth among both new and existing wallets. 

The metric, tracked by Glassnode, signals aggressive accumulation when elevated, pointing to rising demand from larger entities. 

Bitcoin price analysis
As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $122,727, up 0.3% in the last 24 hours and 12% higher on the week.

Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains well above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, confirming a sustained upward trajectory with no immediate signs of reversal.

Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI sits at 68.02, in bullish territory (above 50 but just under the overbought threshold of 70), suggesting solid momentum without exhaustion.

Featured image via Shutterstock

Key points:

Bitcoin begins a retracement after hitting new all-time highs above $125,000.

Sunday trading produces BTC price volatility as traders eye potential bounce levels.

Institutions are on the radar as Bitcoin “debasement trade” talk heats up.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced fresh volatility as it approached Sunday’s weekly close, following a BTC price correction from all-time highs.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAnalysis: 4% BTC price drop possibleData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping back below $123,000.

The pair hit new record highs above $125,000 earlier in the day, fueled by derivatives markets in unusual weekend trading.

Commenting on the latest price action, popular trader Skew warned that the entire move to the upside may be “bait” for longs.

“Passive shorts compounding here,” he observed in a post on X, referring to traders attempting to short price at the highs.

“Shorts opening here on the consensus that the weekend pump is bait.”BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassData from CoinGlass showed liquidity on exchange order books being taken either side of price.

Crypto market participants tend to view weekend moves, both up and down, as unreliable indicators of where the price will ultimately head next, due to a lack of market liquidity.

Considering where the retracement may bottom, trader CrypNuevo eyed the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on four-hour timeframes, currently just above $118,000.

“For the week ahead, I think we could see a 4h50EMA retest - it’s overextended and you can see the retests in previous similar Price Action,” he wrote in an X thread. 

“After that, we should see a new move up higher. Therefore, I'm still favoring longs over shorts from the 4h50EMA.”BTC/USDT four-hour chart with 50EMA. Source: CrypNuevo/XPopular trader and analyst Rekt Capital also used historical comparisons to chart future BTC price performance. $124,000, he argued, may take time to break definitively.

“There's should be no surprise that Bitcoin has rejected from ~$124k on the first time of asking in this uptrend. After all, the last time Bitcoin rejected from $124k, the rejection preceded a -13% pullback,” he reasoned.

“Bitcoin needs to prove this $124k resistance is a weakening point of rejection. And any shallower dip or pullback from here would do just that.”BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/XRekt Capital added that BTC/USD could drop as much as 4% and still preserve the weekly uptrend.

Bitcoin “debasement trade” gathers steamBullish takes, meanwhile, focused on the presence of institutional interest.

Caleb Franzen, creator of financial research resource Cubic Analytics, said that the absence of BTC price pullbacks so far demonstrated sizable demand.

“When I see short-term price action like this, with minimal pullbacks and large spikes to the upside followed by sustained bids, I see institutions,” part of various X updates on the day read.

Mainstream finance commentators referenced Bitcoin’s position in the “debasement trade,” referring to investors’ desire to hedge against the declining value of fiat currencies.

Digital #Gold - aka #Bitcoin – is following its analogue counterpart, hitting a new record high >$125k – a milestone in the ongoing debasement trade, as investors seek protection from currency devaluation. pic.twitter.com/KHjeet5EW8

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 5, 2025
Cointelegraph reported on the trend, the name of which was coined by analysts at JPMorgan, at the start of the year.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Journalist

Posted: October 5, 2025

Key Takeaways
Why is DOGE attracting renewed attention?
Despite a $20 billion market pullback in September, DOGE closed with a 9% ROI, with top 1% addresses holding 96.45%, signaling strong smart money backing.

What makes Dogecoin’s Q4 setup bullish?
Whales injected 30 million DOGE, NUPL shows a solid support at $0.23–$0.25, and HODLers are back in profit, setting the stage for a potential $0.30 breakout and renewed ETF hype.

Dogecoin [DOGE] is flashing signs that the whole “ETF hype” might actually have legs. Even after the memecoin sector wiped out $20 billion in September’s second half, DOGE still pulled off a clean 9% move up.

In fact, on a 30-day basis, it’s actually leading the pack with a solid 21% rally, marking a sharp contrast to Q1 and Q2, when it dumped over 50% from its election-fueled run toward $0.40.

This Q3 resilience (clocking a 41%+ ROI) signals a clear shift in sentiment. Traders seem to be rotating back into DOGE’s classic “high-risk, high-reward” setup as risk appetite creeps back into the market.

Source: Coinglass

Reinforcing the move, top 1% addresses now hold 96.45% of DOGE, hitting a fresh all-time high. Derivatives aren’t screaming “overheated”, which tells us spot demand is still solid with leverage under control.

In fact, as a prominent analyst tracked, whales have kicked off Q4 with fresh accumulation, recently injecting 30 million coins, aligning with DOGE’s 13% monthly run, which is already outperforming its peers.

All in all, smart money’s leaning into DOGE. Even in a risk-off phase, fresh capital flowed in, while speculative positions stayed in check, setting up a perfect insitutional setup for Dogecoin’s ETF narrative.

DOGE’s on-chain metrics translate to stronger gains
Dogecoin’s robust on-chain activity is translating into tangible returns.

Q3 produced DOGE’s most bullish run since the election rally, delivering a 41% ROI, though this still trails the 47% losses from Q1. In short, early-year HODLers remain underwater.

Looking at the NRPL, DOGE dropping below $0.23 flipped the metric into red, showing traders lost conviction and chased breakeven to prevent further losses, establishing this level as a support case for DOGE’s Q4 run.

Source: Glassnode

In short, DOGE holding support keeps FOMO alive.

At press time, it’s $0.26, up 5% intraday, with $0.24–$0.25 acting as a third higher low, synced with smart money stacking. Simply put, bulls are structuring a clean, whale-backed setup.

Against this backdrop, with HODLers back in profit and FOMO high, holding for bigger gains looks likely. Thus, a $0.30 breakout would only pump Dogecoin’s ETF narrative.

Ritika Gupta is a Financial Journalist and Geopolitical Analyst at AMBCrypto, specializing in the critical intersection of world politics, economic policy, and the cryptocurrency markets. Her analysis is informed by her distinguished background, which includes professional experience at major news network.
She holds a Bachelor's degree in Political Science and Psychology from Gargi College, University of Delhi. This academic training provides her with a sophisticated framework for dissecting complex issues such as international regulations, government fiscal policies, and the geopolitical forces that directly influence asset valuations.
At AMBCrypto, Ritika applies this expert lens to synthesize macroeconomic data and political developments, offering readers a deeper context for market movements. She excels at explaining not just what is happening in the market, but why it is happening. Her work is dedicated to providing strategic insights that empower readers to understand the complex relationship between global events and their digital assets.

The cryptocurrency ETF market in the United States is preparing for a seismic shift as REXShares and Osprey Funds jointly submitted applications for 21 new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This filing, one of the largest coordinated pushes to expand crypto investment options, includes major altcoins like Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), and Polkadot (DOT), alongside a broad mix of established and emerging digital assets.

Bitwise CIO believes Solana's speed positions it as Wall Street's preferred blockchain for stablecoins and tokenization.

According to the latest on-chain data, Bitcoin has been witnessing an interesting change in its holder behavior, further intensifying the bullish speculation in the market.  

Bitcoin UTXO Count Declines As Price Surges
In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, market analyst CryptoOnchain revealed that long-term Bitcoin investors seem to be changing their investment strategy by increasingly holding on to their coins. This on-chain observation is based on the Bitcoin UTXO Count metric, which tracks the total number of individual unspent transaction outputs on the blockchain.

For context, an unspent transaction output is an amount of a cryptocurrency (in this case, Bitcoin) that has been received by an address, but has not yet been used as input for a new transaction.

CryptoOnchain shared that this on-chain metric has been on a steady decline since January 2025. In the post, the crypto analyst pointed out that the UTXO count recently reached about 166.6 million, the lowest point seen since April 2024. 

Source: CryptoQuant
Since the Bitcoin UTXO reached a peak of approximately 187.5 million in January, it has witnessed a contraction of up to 11% — an event which CryptoOnchain interprets as a clear sign of network consolidation. 

Interestingly, this decline seen with unspent transaction output contrasts with Bitcoin’s price action. While the UTXO has maintained a steady bearish structure, Bitcoin’s value has continued to ascend. The flagship cryptocurrency saw a price growth from about $99,000 to its current market price of around $122,000.

This “inverse relationship” is one that the online pundit explained to be a “classic hallmark of a maturing market.”

Why The Decline And What To Expect
A decreased UTXO count could be a result of several underlying factors, including that long-term holders are choosing to hold their coins rather than selling for profit. Owing to this “hodling” behavior, it can be said that the market is starting to gain maturity.

Also, CryptoOnchain explained that low UTXOs could indicate reduced transactions within the Blockchain. By extension, this could mean that fewer sales are going on, which translates to reduced selling pressure on price.

Also, a lower UTXO count points to increasing network efficiency. As users aggregate smaller UTXOs into larger ones, they optimize the blockchain space, leading potentially to a less congested network.

Ultimately, the simultaneous decline in Bitcoin’s UTXO and its price increase paints an exciting picture for the cryptocurrency’s future. This combination signals that the premier cryptocurrency is at a reaccumulation phase, meaning that investors are strategically positioning themselves in expectation of the next significant upward move.

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at about $122,720, showing an over 1% growth in the past day.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin train seems to never, ever stop.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high today, surging past its previous all-time high of $124,466. Bitcoin climbed more than 13% over the past week, quickly rebounding from $109,000 at the end of September to touch $125,750 today, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.

The last time bitcoin was close to these levels was in August. 

There are several key drivers for the bullish reversal. Macroeconomic uncertainty — including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown — has led investors toward alternatives like bitcoin, historically seen as a hedge against traditional financial risks. 

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, believes that bitcoin’s role as a safe haven is being amplified by the fiscal gridlock in Washington.

This rally has also been bolstered by so-called “Uptober” seasonality — a term traders use to describe bitcoin’s typical pattern of strong October gains. 

Over the past decade, the month has produced average returns exceeding 21%, often setting the stage for outsized fourth-quarter performance.Since 2015, bitcoin has averaged a gain of nearly 58% in the fourth quarter, outperforming every other three-month period.

Institutions appear to be playing a role in this jump as well, with increased flows into exchange-traded funds and digital custody services signaling renewed appetite from both retail and professional investors. 

Where is Bitcoin headed?  Bitcoin has traded sideways in recent months, but key liquidity indicators suggested this breakout was coming. Global M2 growth, stablecoin supply trends, and gold’s rally — which bitcoin has closely tracked with a 40-day lag — all pointed upward.

JPMorgan analysts think bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold, estimating a theoretical upside to $165,000 if the “debasement trade” — investing in assets that hedge fiat currency risk — continues. 

Market watchers, like Kendrick, are raising their targets in response to bitcoin’s rally, with some forecasts calling for prices to exceed $135,000 in the near term and possibly reach $200,000 by year’s end if current trends continue. 

At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading at $123,319.82.

Micah Zimmerman

Micah first discovered Bitcoin in 2018 but remained a skeptic on the sidelines for too long. Since 2021, he has covered crypto and business and now works as a junior news reporter for Bitcoin Magazine, based in North Carolina.

BTCFi’s Big Problem: 77% of Bitcoin Holders Haven’t Even Tried It, Says SurveyA new GoMining survey shows Bitcoin finance has a marketing and trust problem — despite packed conferences and venture funding, most holders are staying away. Oct 5, 2025, 12:00 p.m.

Bitcoin decentralized finance (DeFi), also known as BTCFi, has been touted as the next wave of innovation for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. However, research suggests bitcoin BTC$123,015.85 holders themselves are barely engaging.

Some 77% of bitcoin holders have never tried a BTCFi platform, according to a survey of more than 700 respondents across North America and Europe by BTC mining ecosystem GoMining. Just over 10% reported having experimented once or twice, while only 8% said they actively use BTCFi services for yield or lending.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

The survey highlights a stark disconnect between the sector’s promise and its actual reach.

“There’s an enormous appetite for these opportunities, but the industry has built products for crypto natives, not for everyday bitcoin holders,” said GoMining CEO Mark Zalan in a statement.

That appetite shows up in the data: 73% of respondents expressed interest in earning yield on their BTC through lending or staking, while 42% want access to liquidity without selling. Yet hesitation dominates. More than 40% said they would allocate less than 20% of their holdings to BTCFi products, underscoring the sector’s trust and complexity problem.

Awareness GapPerhaps most striking is how invisible the industry still is. GoMining found that 65% of Bitcoin holders couldn’t name a single BTCFi project.

Despite millions in venture funding, BTCFi platforms appear to be speaking mainly to themselves rather than the market they’re built to serve.

The report argues that BTCFi’s adoption problem may stem from its reliance on Ethereum’s DeFi model. Bitcoin users, GoMining suggests, are more conservative: they favor custodial services, regulated ETFs and simplicity over self-custody experiments and complex protocols.

“Bitcoin holders aren’t ether ETH$4,538.69 users,” Zalan said. “Coinbase and Bitcoin ETFs succeeded because they prioritized accessibility. BTCFi platforms that focus on education and user experience, rather than complex features, will capture this market."

For the industry, the survey is both a warning and an opportunity. Millions of Bitcoin holders want the yield and liquidity BTCFi promises, but they need to be met with products they can trust and understand.

However, it should be kept in mind that the survey respondents were a "random selection" of just 700 GoMining users.

GoMining is a digital BTC mining platform that connects users to real-world mining operations through Digital Miners non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and a gamified ecosystem, so the survey's findings are subject to the extent to which its users represent typical bitcoin users.

"Our user base represents the bitcoin holders universe quite nicely," a GoMining spokesperson told CoinDesk over email. "More than 80% of our users open their first crypto wallet with us and enter the Bitcoin ecosystem through our digital mining product."

AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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Global asset manager VanEck says Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade in December could cut costs for rollups and strengthen ETH’s role as the backbone of onchain activity.

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Bitwise Asset Management moved ahead to officially file an S-1 registration with the US SEC for an Aptos ETF. If this product gets approved, it would be the first altcoin ETF tied to the Move chain, Bitwise claims.

Despite a strong upward trajectory and renewed investor interest, bitcoin appears to be entering a short-term cooling phase following last night's recent all-time high. Technical signals across multiple timeframes show bullish momentum remains intact, yet warning signs suggest a potential retracement before further gains.

Sun, 5/10/2025 - 12:31

Samson Mow warns chance to buy Bitcoin under $200,000 disappearing

Cover image via U.Today

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Bitcoin reached another milestone this week, hitting a new all-time high of $125,559 on Sunday, Oct. 5, before cooling down near $123,500. This keeps the asset firmly in six-figure territory, marking a seven-day gain of nearly 13%.

Against this context, Jan3 Chief Executive Samson Mow reiterated his well-established prediction that Bitcoin could ultimately trade at $1 million. He put out a statement on X saying that investors still have a chance to get the cryptocurrency for under $200,000, but he warned that time is running out.

Mow's remarks line up with tightening supply. There are now 19.92 million circulating Bitcoin, close to the 21 million hard cap, leaving 1.1 million coins to be mined. At current prices, Bitcoin is worth an estimated $2.59 trillion, more than many multinational corporations and roughly equivalent to the GDP of major global economies.

$200,000 BTCMarket bulls view the $200,000 price point as the next major psychological level, and in their eyes institutional inflows and regulated products are likely to speed the rise up.

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Exchange-traded funds in the U.S. and corporate treasury allocations are set to boost demand in the near term, while retail buyers continue to accumulate aggressively at each new dip.

Critics point to the risks of these valuations, but Mow says they are due to early adoption, not late entry. He sees BTC below $200,000 as a window that may soon close for investors watching supply and institutional interest.

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Berkshire Hathaway keeps adding to one of last year's biggest losers. It's a smarter call than you think.

You may be surprised to learn that the largest investor in Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI 2.83%) is none other than Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B 0.68%). Warren Buffett's widely followed conglomerate has a 37% stake in the country's lone satellite radio provider.

It didn't start that way. True to Buffett's style of trying to make a good deal even better, his initial exposure to Sirius XM came in the form of publicly traded tracking shares put out by retired media mogul John Malone that offered a slice of the media stock at a discount.

When the tracking shares were converted into Sirius XM last year, Buffett didn't just cash in on the premium and bolt. He went all in on the common. It gets better. Over the past year -- a time when Berkshire Hathaway has lightened its load across several of its roughly three dozen publicly held investments -- it has increased its stake in Sirius XM. It hasn't paid off for Berkshire Hathaway just yet, but things could be about to get a lot better.

Changing the tempo
Loading up on Sirius XM may not seem like the smartest move that Buffett's company has ever made. The stock has been cut in half since the start of last year, and his subsequent purchases since last fall's tracking share conversion have come at lower and lower price points. However, it doesn't mean that Berkshire Hathaway will lose here.

For starters, despite owning 37% of Sirius XM, the stake is actually just 1% of Berkshire Hathaway's public portfolio. It's not going to break Buffett if Sirius XM flops, but let's dive into why it could be one of the most promising stocks on the Berkshire scorecard.

Sirius XM has struggled to expand its reach in recent years. Organic revenue growth has routinely been in the single digits, and it's declining slightly for the third consecutive year. There are some good reasons for the stagnancy. New car sales have been sluggish in a climate of stiff auto loan rates. Younger drivers are leaning on smartphone audio apps played through their dashboards.

There are signs of the market flipping the script on this bearish narrative. For starters, the average age of a car on the road in the U.S. is a record 13 years. An upgrade cycle is coming, and you're already starting to see the financing rates start to come down. It may take a while to convince some of the younger drivers to take advantage of Sirius XM, but the entertainment stock is signing content deals with celebrity podcasters and show hosts, packing broad appeal for younger audiences.

Several other trends are shifting Sirius XM's way. Gas is cheap. Companies are calling people back into work. A springtime GSTV survey showed that 83% of respondents planned to take a road trip this summer, with a record 60% of them planning on driving more than 300 miles for their getaways. The more time that people spend in their cars, the stronger the value proposition for a Sirius XM subscription with coast-to-coast coverage.

Image source: Getty Images.

Cheap is where the art is
Buying a depressed stock -- just as its fundamentals could be turning the corner -- is a solid bullish thesis. The cherry on top is how cheap Sirius XM is right now.

You can follow Buffett into Sirius XM for just 8 times forward earnings. The stock is yielding 4.8% as you wait out the rebound. In the meantime, Sirius XM is making its own luck. It has been aggressively buying back its stock over the past dozen years, expanding profitability on a per-share basis by reducing its share count by nearly half.

Its latest quarter calls for $1.15 billion in free cash flow this year. That's a multiple of less than 7 based on market cap and still a reasonable enterprise value multiple below 16. Sirius XM believes it can push its annual free cash flow to $1.5 billion come 2027.

Sirius XM is a high-yielding value stock at a time when fixed income rates are falling. If today's headwinds become tomorrow's tailwinds, it could return as a growth stock, too. The volume knob goes both ways. Berkshire Hathaway's decision to add to its Sirius XM position over the past year should start to pay off soon.

Rick Munarriz has positions in Sirius XM. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

As the artificial intelligence (AI) data center race continues to escalate, a string of massive deals has been announced in recent weeks that involve big tech companies like Alphabet or Microsoft agreeing to provide a financial "backstop."

A $6.3 billion agreement between red-hot CoreWeave (CRWV -2.30%) and the company at the very heart of the AI boom, Nvidia (NVDA -0.77%), sent both stocks higher. So what exactly is a backstop, and what does this latest announcement mean for both CoreWeave and Nvidia?

What is a backstop?
A backstop agreement is a safety net -- a guarantee that a company will step in as a buyer of last resort if things don't go according to plan. Many of these deals have involved the guarantee of a lease. If, say, Microsoft agreed to provide a $1 billion backstop for a lease between a data center operator and a cloud provider, the data center operator will be made whole if the cloud provider fails to pay its lease (up to a maximum of $1 billion).

Much like a cosigner on a loan, these backstops from large, successful companies allow smaller companies to access significantly more credit at better rates than they could otherwise.

In CoreWeave's deal, Nvidia is obligated to pay the company up to $6.3 billion through 2032 if the cloud provider has unsold capacity. The agreement was actually signed in 2023, but was only publicly revealed in an SEC filing this month.

CoreWeave needs Nvidia's guarantee
The benefit to CoreWeave is pretty straightforward. Building AI data centers is extraordinarily expensive. There are few companies that have cash flows large enough to pay for substantial data center capacity outright. CoreWeave is using debt -- a lot of it -- to build its data centers and acquire capacity from existing infrastructure providers.

CoreWeave needs money, and Nvidia's backstop allows it to access the capital it needs. Lenders are much more likely to agree to favorable terms -- or extend credit at all -- when they know one of the most successful companies on the planet is on the hook for billions of dollars.

Since the agreement is not new, its public revelation won't really change anything for CoreWeave's ability to access financing. However, it does help quell growing concerns from investors over the sustainability of its business model. That's great for its stock price.

Nvidia has a lot to gain, too
While CoreWeave's benefits are more readily apparent, Nvidia wins as well. CoreWeave serves an important role in Nvidia's ecosystem -- a role that extends well beyond being just another customer.

CoreWeave lowers the friction for companies that can't afford or justify massive, upfront graphics processing unit (GPU) purchases. Wider access means more sustainable demand. It means more AI workloads inside the CUDA software ecosystem -- a key element of Nvidia's moat -- reinforcing developer lock-in.

It also gives Nvidia a buffer and offloads risk. Nvidia gets to reap the benefits of supplying the AI data center build-out without directly spending its own money to build capacity and drive demand. It lets CoreWeave do so instead. That means it's CoreWeave that is spending enormous amounts of its cash -- and the cash it has borrowed -- to build capacity.

If AI demand drops sharply, obviously, it would be bad for Nvidia, but it could be disastrous for CoreWeave. Nvidia's obligation to creditors is capped at $6.3 billion. It's CoreWeave that's on the hook for the full amount of its debt.

Critically, the deal is structured so that Nvidia gets to use the unsold capacity it is paying for.

Who wins?
In the short term, both companies get what they need. Over the long term, however, Nvidia is the clear winner. If AI demand continues at the levels we are seeing today, both companies win. If AI demand cools, however, CoreWeave is in a tight spot.

CoreWeave is walking a tightrope, and its success requires AI demand to stay hot. I'm not sure that will happen. It's entirely possible that even if AI succeeds over the long term, there will be a period of retraction. This could prove fatal to CoreWeave given its enormous -- and expensive -- debt load.

Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The quantum computing market might overtake AI as the next big trade on Wall Street.

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Both companies should continue to benefit from their OpenAI investments.

Nvidia (NVDA -0.77%) and Microsoft (MSFT 0.26%) both made big bets on OpenAI, but they are coming at the opportunity from very different directions. Nvidia's move is about keeping its chips at the center of the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout and expanding into the software side, while Microsoft's early investment let it weave OpenAI's large language models (LLMs) into its cloud computing and software businesses.

The question, though, is which stock is the better buy after their OpenAI investments.

Nvidia's big AI investment
Nvidia's plan to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI is not just about buying a stake in a hot AI company. It also gives one of the companies that are leading the charge in AI infrastructure buildout financing, which it will then likely funnel back to Nvidia by buying or renting its graphics processing units (GPUs). This gives Nvidia a massive, long-term, guaranteed customer for its chips.

Locking that in helps solidify Nvidia's position as the essential infrastructure provider for the AI industry. Competitors like Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom are fighting to break into the AI chip market, but by partnering closely with OpenAI, Nvidia helps solidify its position as the market leader. The deal also gives Nvidia financial exposure to OpenAI's software business. CEO Jensen Huang has said OpenAI could become the world's next multitrillion-dollar company.

Another underappreciated angle is that the two companies will work together at the chip, software, and systems level. That collaboration gives Nvidia a first look at the computing needs of the most advanced AI models, letting it shape future chips to match those workloads. That would give the company yet another edge.

Nvidia also has advantages that it built long before it invested in OpenAI. Its CUDA software platform, launched in 2006, locked in most AI developers since so much of the foundational code was written for it. Its NVLink interconnect, meanwhile, lets its GPUs operate as one giant unit. With OpenAI expected to lead the charge in AI data-center spending in the coming years, Nvidia looks as well positioned as any company to be a big winner.

Image source: Getty Images.

Microsoft's early and smart AI play
Microsoft's investment in OpenAI was smaller in dollar terms, but it was transformational. It got in early when OpenAI's ChatGPT was starting to go mainstream, and that early move gave it preferred access to its models. That alone was a game-changer because it was able to become the growth driver behind its cloud computing unit, Azure.

The partnership helped create the Azure OpenAI Service, which lets Microsoft's enterprise customers tap into OpenAI's most advanced models using its infrastructure. That initial exclusive access to OpenAI's models drew in customers looking to use them to power their AI workloads. Azure growth has been skyrocketing, including last quarter when it soared 39% despite running into capacity constraints.

Microsoft also integrated OpenAI's technology directly into its software, using its models to create its Copilot AI assistants. Its Copilot can do many things, from simply summarizing a document to allowing someone to use Python in Excel using only natural language. The bottom line, though, is that it can help workers be more productive, and at $30 per user per month, it's an affordable way for companies to help increase worker efficiency, while also being a nice growth drive for Microsoft.

Another advantage of Microsoft's OpenAI investment is that it gives it early access to OpenAI's newest technologies, which cuts its own development risk and cost. By being first in, Microsoft secured a preferred-partner status that its competitors still don't have.

The better investment versus the better buy
Microsoft clearly made the better OpenAI investment by getting in early. Its initial investment is now worth way more than it was just a few years ago. At the same time, that relationship has been critical in helping drive the company's own growth.

Nvidia's investment is coming much later, but it locks in massive chip sales and helps cement its role as the backbone of AI infrastructure. It also gives it exposure to OpenAI's potential upside and to work together to advance the future of AI.

If you're judging by who got the better deal on OpenAI, that was Microsoft. But if you're looking at the stocks today, Nvidia looks better positioned moving forward, given the massive opportunity still ahead of it, helped by its OpenAI investment.

Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.