Market Signal Briefing

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

DISCLAIMER: This article is purely for informational and educational purposes. This is NOT investment advice. You should not treat any opinion expressed by SMR Finance as specific investment advice to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of opinion. SMR Finance is not under any obligation to update or correct any information provided in this article. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed in this article. Investment involves risks. This article is not to be relied upon as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Investors should obtain their own independent financial advice and understand the risks associated with investment products/services before making investment decisions.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

ConocoPhillips offers income and growth backed by one of the lowest risk profiles in the oil patch.

ConocoPhillips (COP 1.21%) is one of the world's largest independent exploration and production (E&P) companies. That global scale gives it significant competitive advantages over many of its smaller rivals. It has several attractive investment qualities that make it a top choice for investors.

Here are three reasons why you can confidently buy this leading oil stock right now.

Image source: Getty Images.

A low-cost leader
ConocoPhillips has spent the past several years high-grading its portfolio. The company has sold off higher-cost assets and recycled that capital into expanding its lower-cost resources. It made its biggest upgrade last year, acquiring Marathon Oil in a $22.5 billion deal. The acquisition added over 2 billion barrels of resource with an average estimated cost of supply below $30 a barrel.

The company has built one of the deepest, most durable, and diverse portfolios in its peer group with some of the lowest supply costs in the sector. ConocoPhillips currently has a break-even level in the mid-$40 a barrel range to support its capital expenditure program. With crude prices in the low to mid-$60s these days, the company is generating significant excess free cash flow after funding its capital expenditures.

That ultra-low-cost position gives it a competitive advantage to weather even lower oil prices in the future.

Today's Change

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95.54

Visible free cash flow growth through the end of the decade
ConocoPhillips has invested a considerable amount of money over the past few years in large-scale capital projects. The company and its partners are working on three liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansions. Additionally, ConocoPhillips is spending $9 billion on its Willow oil project in Alaska.

These investments will fuel meaningful free cash flow growth over the next few years. The company expects that additional cost and margin enhancements from its Marathon deal will add an incremental $1 billion to its free cash flow next year. Meanwhile, its three LNG investments should add another $1 billion in incremental cash flow in both 2027 and 2028 as they come online. Finally, it expects to reach an inflection point in 2029 when Willow starts up, with the oil field projected to contribute $4 billion to its annual free cash flow. Add it up, and that's $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by the end of the decade. That assumes oil averages $70 a barrel; ConocoPhillips can produce $6 billion in additional free cash flow if crude averages $60 a barrel. That's a meaningful increase for a company that has generated $6.1 billion in free cash flow through the first nine months of this year.

A high-octane dividend
ConocoPhillips' low-cost operations enable it to generate significant free cash flow, even in the current environment. That allows the company to pay an attractive dividend. Its payout currently yields 3.3%, more than double the S&P 500's level (1.2%).

That high-yielding dividend is on a very sustainable foundation. The company estimates that its current oil price breakeven level for capital spending and the dividend is in the mid-$50s. It has a comfortable cushion with crude prices currently well above that level. Additionally, ConocoPhillips has a fortress balance sheet. It ended the third quarter with $6.6 billion of cash and short-term investments and another $1.1 billion of long-term investments. With its dividend payment currently around $1 billion per quarter, it could cover that payout for several quarters on its cash balance alone.

The company recently increased its dividend payment by 8%. It aims to deliver dividend growth among the top 25% of companies in the S&P 500 in the future. That's easily achievable, given the growth it sees ahead for its free cash flow. The company anticipates its oil price breakeven level will decline into the low $30s by the end of the decade, further enhancing the sustainability of its steadily rising dividend.

A low-cost, high-yielding oil growth stock
ConocoPhillips has one of the lowest breakeven levels in the industry. This metric should continue declining in the future as the company's expansion projects come online and begin generating additional free cash flow. That will give it the fuel to continue increasing its high-yielding dividend, which will become even more sustainable. This combination of a low risk profile, high yield dividend, and visible free cash flow growth makes ConocoPhillips a top oil stock to buy and hold long term.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BTG either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

By

:

Published: Dec 15, 2025, 02:54 GMT+00:00

Gold rallied to $4,326 on growing Fed rate cut expectations, while silver broke record highs and led the precious metals rally, with bullish technical patterns and safe-haven demand pointing to further upside

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rallied to $4,326 in early Asian trading, extending gains to their highest level since late October. The move reflects rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2026. Silver (XAGUSD) is also benefiting from the rate-cut narrative, though its price action remains volatile. Silver has broken above historical record levels and continues to lead the precious metals rally. The technical breakdown in the gold-to-silver ratio further supports this surge in silver.

However, any hawkish comments from upcoming Fed speeches could slow the rally and trigger a pullback. Moreover, ongoing geopolitical tensions and weak labour data continue to support safe-haven demand. The market is also awaiting the delayed NFP report on Tuesday for further momentum in the precious metals. A weaker report could reinforce dovish expectations and fuel another leg higher in both gold and silver.

Gold Technical Analysis
The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has rebounded from the $4,200 region and reached a strong resistance zone between $4,350 and $4,380. The price remains within an ascending broadening wedge pattern and has approached near all-time highs within this formation, awaiting its next directional move.

A break below $4,200 would likely trigger a sharp downside correction, while a breakout above $4,380 would open the door for further upside momentum. The RSI is rising from the mid-level of 50, indicating ongoing bullish momentum in the gold market.

The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows that the price broke above $4,260 after forming a rounding bottom, indicating bullish price action. The price then retraced back toward the breakout level of $4,260 and is now consolidating at a higher level, which suggests that bullish momentum remains intact.

A break below $4,260 would be the first sign of weakening momentum and could trigger a further decline toward the $4,150 level. However, as long as the price holds above $4,100, the gold market is likely to remain supported and trend higher.

Silver Technical Analysis
The daily chart for spot silver shows that the price has broken above the $54.50 level after forming a cup-and-handle pattern. It surged higher to register a new all-time high at $64.50 before pulling back.

The sharp volatility following the breakout above the long-term resistance at $50 suggests continued price swings in the coming days and weeks. A decisive break above $65 would likely trigger the next leg higher toward the $100 zone.

The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows a strong bullish structure, with multiple bullish patterns forming during the ongoing uptrend. Recently, the price broke above the wedge pattern in the $58–$59 region, initiating a surge toward the $64 area. This sharp rally reflects heightened volatility, and a short-term correction may follow. However, any pullback is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity for the next leg higher.

US Dollar Technical Analysis
The daily chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows that the index failed to break above the 100.50 level and has since moved lower, remaining under bearish pressure. The 50-day SMA is now approaching the 200-day SMA, but with the index continuing to decline, the overall trend remains bearish.

A break below the 98 level would signal a further drop toward 96.50. On the other hand, a break below 96.50 would confirm a strong continuation of the downtrend toward the 90 level.

The 4-hour chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows that it has formed a double-top pattern near the 100.50 resistance and has broken the neckline at the 99 level. A break below 98 would further confirm the bearish setup and signal a potential move toward the 96.50 area. Any short-term retracement back to the 99 level may present a selling opportunity for the U.S. Dollar Index.

Bottom Line
Gold and silver remain supported by easing rate expectations, a weakening U.S. dollar, and persistent demand for safe-haven assets. Gold is consolidating near key resistance while holding a bullish structure above critical support, keeping the upside bias intact. Silver continues to lead the rally after breaking record highs, despite elevated volatility. From a technical perspective, both metals are expected to surge higher due to the bullish price structure.

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Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.

Important DisclaimersFXEmpire is owned and operated by Empire Media Network LTD., Company Registration Number 514641786, registered at 7 Jabotinsky Road, Ramat Gan 5252007, Israel. The content provided on this website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and materials provided by third parties. This content is intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be interpreted as, a recommendation or advice to take any action, including making any investment or purchasing any product. Before making any financial decision, you should conduct your own due diligence, exercise your own discretion, and consult with competent advisors. The content on this website is not personally directed to you, and we do not take into account your individual financial situation or needs. The information contained on this website is not necessarily provided in real time, nor is it guaranteed to be accurate. Prices displayed may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges. Any trading or other financial decision you make is entirely your own responsibility, and you must not rely solely on any information provided through the website. FXEmpire does not provide any warranty regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information contained on the website and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of using such information. The website may include advertisements and other promotional content. FXEmpire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with such content. FXEmpire does not endorse, recommend, or assume responsibility for the use of any third-party services or websites. Empire Media Network LTD., its employees, officers, subsidiaries, and affiliates shall not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided herein.Risk DisclaimersThis website contains information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs), and other financial instruments, as well as about brokers, exchanges, and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and involve a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FX Empire encourages you to conduct your own research before making any investment decision and to avoid investing in any financial instrument unless you fully understand how it works and the risks involved.

TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (TOKYO: 6503) announced today that in collaboration with Professor Toshiaki Kamachi and colleagues from the School of Life Science and Technology at Institute of Science Tokyo (Science Tokyo) they have achieved the world's first mechanism for elucidating the combined use of negative ions to enhance the oxidative action of ozone. In their joint study, they discovered that dissolving negative ions in the moisture surrounding viruses and othe.

The Chinese state-owned miner has won the support of SolGold's board after making a revised bid that values U.K.-listed company at $1.13 billion

iRobot says that customer service and app functionality won't be disrupted despite the restructuring.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Bitcoin is once again under pressure as global markets increasingly price in a near-certain Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike at its upcoming December 18–19 policy meeting. Traders now expect the BOJ to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, a move that would mark Japan’s highest policy rate in nearly 30 years and tighten global liquidity conditions. This shift in monetary policy is weighing on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as investors brace for reduced access to cheap capital.

Market expectations around the BOJ decision have surged sharply. According to a Bloomberg chart shared by analyst Ted Pillows, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike has climbed above 90%, following hawkish comments from BOJ policymakers reported by Reuters. Prediction markets reinforce this outlook, with Polymarket currently assigning up to a 98% chance of a December rate increase, while expectations for larger hikes remain minimal.

Historically, Bitcoin has struggled during periods of BOJ tightening. Past rate hikes have coincided with Bitcoin drawdowns of 20% to 25%, largely due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade. When Japanese rates rise, borrowing yen becomes more expensive, prompting investors to reduce exposure to higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Some analysts now warn that Bitcoin could revisit the $70,000 range if selling pressure accelerates.

Despite short-term bearish sentiment, long-term investors remain active. Strategy founder Michael Saylor has indicated plans to continue accumulating Bitcoin, even as market fear rises. However, on-chain data suggests increasing downside hedging, with reports of a large whale opening an $89 million Bitcoin short using leverage, adding to near-term volatility concerns.

Prediction markets are also signaling caution. Kalshi data shows a growing probability that Bitcoin could fall below $80,000 before year-end. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $88,800, with price action heavily influenced by macroeconomic developments. While some strategists, including Tom Lee, anticipate a recovery and potential new all-time highs in early 2026, the BOJ’s decision is likely to set the tone for Bitcoin’s price trend through the end of the year.

<Copyright ⓒ TokenPost, unauthorized reproduction and redistribution prohibited>

Aevo's legacy Ribbon Finance smart contracts were exploited for approximately $2.7 million on Dec. 12, after an oracle infrastructure upgrade inadvertently enabled price manipulation, according to blockchain security researchers.

The attack targeted Ribbon's DeFi Options Vaults (DOV), which are structured products that once held over $300 million in total value locked during DeFi's peak. The vaults remained active on Ethereum despite Ribbon Finance's 2023 rebrand and transition into derivatives exchange Aevo. The exploit did not affect Aevo's primary Layer 2 exchange, the team said.

Blockchain analyst Specter first flagged suspicious outflows on X, identifying the exploit contract address and initial theft wallets. The attacker extracted hundreds of ETH and significant USDC holdings before distributing the proceeds to 15 separate addresses, many holding approximately 100 ETH each.

Security researcher Liyi Zhou published a detailed thread on X explaining that the attacker manipulated the Opyn/Ribbon oracle stack by abusing price-feed proxies. The exploit pushed arbitrary expiry prices for wstETH, AAVE, LINK, and WBTC into the shared oracle at a common expiry timestamp.

Anton Cheng of Monarch DeFi noted that exploit was made possible by a Dec. 6 upgrade to the oracle code that "let anyone set prices for new assets." Cheng confirmed that the underlying Opyn protocol was not compromised, as the vulnerability was specific to Ribbon's oracle configuration.

Aevo will decommission all Ribbon vaults
In a statement on X, Aevo said all Ribbon vaults have been stopped and will be decommissioned immediately. While the vaults suffered approximately 32% in losses, the team proposed that withdrawals be subject to only a 19% reduction on position value at the time of the hack.

Aevo said it can offer the smaller haircut for two reasons: the DAO will forfeit its own vault positions (roughly $400,000 in various assets) to partially offset the theft, reducing net losses to $2.3 million. Second, the team said accounts with the largest deposits have gone dormant over the past two to four years and likely won't withdraw at all.

"We're proposing to prioritize active users by granting them a smaller reduction upfront," the team wrote. "Given the expected dormancy rate, there's a strong chance that users who withdraw during the claim window will ultimately be made whole after the final distribution."

The claim window will run six months from Dec. 12 to June 12. After that date, the DAO will liquidate remaining assets and distribute them to users who previously withdrew, compensating up to the missing 19% or as much as remains available. The team noted the DAO "never promised or offered insurance on deposits."

Oracle manipulation remains a persistent DeFi attack vector. Earlier this year, Venus Protocol on ZKsync lost $717,000 to a similar exploit, The Block previously reported.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Journalist

Posted: December 15, 2025

After attempting a breakout days ago, Ethereum faced a rejection at $3.4k and dropped to a local low of $3045. 

As of this writing, Ethereum [ETH] traded at $3,118 after a slight 0.03% hike on the daily charts and a 2.5% hike on the weekly charts. Amid this market pullback, investors took the opportunity to accumulate at a discount. 

Whale rotates, swaps 1969 BTC for 58.149 ETH
With crypto in a prolonged downtrend, significant capital has rotated away from Bitcoin to other crypto assets. 

In fact, the capital moved into Bitcoin [BTC] has dropped from the July peaks of $62 billion to only $4 billion.

Amid this shift, Ethereum is the biggest beneficiary with investors, especially whales, selling BTC and accumulating ETH. 

Source: Checkonchain

On-chain monitors observed one such whale. According to Lookonchain, a whale swapped another 502.8 BTC for 14,500 ETH, worth approximately $45.24 million. 

This whale has been aggressively swapping BTC for ETH over the past days. As a result, the whale has converted 1,969 BTC, worth $177.9 million, into 58,149 ETH, worth $181.4 million. 

When whales rotate from BTC to ETH, it signals a high risk appetite, indicating they are willing to take on more risk for higher future returns.

Such market behavior indicates confidence in ETH and a projected strengthening of narratives.

Demand for ETH recovers
With Ethereum seeing a shift in market sentiment, the demand for the altcoin has surged significantly.

Inasmuch, Ethereum’s Fund Market Premium has held positive for two consecutive days, for the first time in almost two weeks.

Source: CryptoQuant

Usually, when the market premium holds positive, it suggests that investors have turned to aggressive accumulation of ETH through funds.

Thus, buyers are willing to pay more than the actual value of ETH, a clear sign of institutional-style bullishness.

As a result of this aggressive accumulation, Ethereum’s Exchange Netflow has remained negative for five consecutive days.

In fact, at press time, the altcoin’s Netflow was -32k ETH, indicating withdrawals rather than deposits, a clear sign of aggressive spot accumulation.

Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, higher exchange outflows have accelerated upward momentum by raising scarcity, often a prelude to higher prices.

Is demand adequate to sustain a rebound?
While demand for ETH from whales and funds has recovered, the market remains structurally bearish. As a result, demand has become inadequate to address the market gap.

In fact, Ethereum’s downward momentum has continued to strengthen. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) dipped into oversold territory, entering a negative zone at -3, indicating bearish dominance.

Source: TradingView

Such market conditions leave ETH in a bearish position and could lead to further losses. The continuation of these market conditions could see ETH lose $3k support and drop to $2.8k.

However, if buyers hold the accumulation spree, ETH could close above EMA20 at $3121 and target $EMA50 at $3288, signaling a trend shift.

A heated debate on social media on Saturday centered on the potential outcome of a quantum computer hacking into Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin wallet and subsequently selling those coins, making them available on the market.

TLDR

Recent realized price data shows short-term Bitcoin buyers acquiring supply at lower average costs than medium-term holders.
Historical records confirm this cost basis inversion has occurred only nine times across more than 3,200 observed trading days.
These inversion phases typically resolve faster than standard market structures, reflecting stress-driven redistribution.
Ownership patterns indicate supply is rotating toward lower-cost participants, contributing to tighter price ranges.

Bitcoin’s cost basis is sending a quieter message than price charts suggest. Recent on-chain data shows a rare shift in how different buyer groups entered the market. 

This signal comes from realized price metrics rather than short-term market moves.

The data reflects changes beneath the surface during a volatile period. While daily price action has drawn attention, ownership patterns show a more measured adjustment taking place.

A Rare Inversion in Buyer Cost Structure
Bitcoin’s cost basis data shows that newer buyers paid less than medium-term holders during recent sessions. 

This occurs when the realized price of the 1–3 month cohort drops below the 3–6 month group. Under normal conditions, the opposite structure dominates market cycles.

Historical records covering more than 3,200 daily observations show this inversion is uncommon. 

It has appeared only nine times across the full dataset. When it occurs, it tends to persist for shorter periods than standard market phases.

These inversion periods average roughly 145 days, compared with over 210 days in typical conditions. 

Negative spreads have reached nearly $19,500 at their deepest points. Such movements reflect abrupt market stress rather than extended directional declines.

Redistribution, Volatility, and Market Compression
Behavioral data indicates this shift reflects redistribution instead of broad exit activity. 

New participants are absorbing supply at lower prices. Medium-term holders remain closer to their original cost levels, which tightens price ranges.

Several market observers referenced this pattern in recent posts on X during heightened volatility. 

These posts focused on realized price behavior rather than short-term chart formations. The discussion centered on cost efficiency rather than sentiment extremes.

Bitcoin’s cost basis structure during these periods often aligns with consolidation phases. Volatility remains elevated, yet ownership transitions toward lower average entry prices. This process reduces excess leverage without forcing prolonged weakness.

As long as this inversion stays limited to younger UTXO cohorts, market structure remains intact. 

The pattern suggests recalibration rather than erosion. Price discovery continues, supported by a steadier distribution of supply among holders.

Journalist

Posted: December 15, 2025

Hyperliquid remained caught in a bearish trend.

Bitcoin’s inability to break out past the local resistance at $94k meant that the market-wide sentiment remained muted.

According to Dune Analytics, Hyperliquid saw fewer active users and volume, a trend that began in October. A week ago, the impact of the monthly HYPE unlocks was explored.

It concluded that it was too soon to tell how the market would digest the news, especially with the HYPE buyback program affected by the market conditions.

Analysis showed that the token was likely to see more downside in the short term.

Assessing the next week’s HYPE trend
The previous price report noted the token’s bearish structure on the daily timeframe. The short-term resistances at $29.88 and $30.68 remained unbroken.

Source: HYPE/USDT on TradingView

On the 4-hour chart, a range formation has developed over the past week. The $29.88 resistance was near one extreme of the range, with the range low at $27.22. As things stand, traders can utilize the range till it is broken.

The OBV made a new lower low over the past three days, which showed that selling pressure has been prevalent despite the range-bound price action. This gives swing traders more confidence to go short near the range highs, and a bit less confidence betting on a rebound from the lows.

The 30-day Liquidation Map showed that short positions had slightly more cumulative leverage nearby than longs. At the same time, there was more leverage with the long positions whose liquidations lie around $26.5-$27.

This meant the puzzle has no easy solution. Liquidity could pull prices either way- but which one would come first?

Traders’ call to action- wait for the first impulse move
HYPE is likely to gravitate along the path of least resistance and will also be influenced by what Bitcoin [BTC] does.

This path is not immediately clear, but its targets are. Either $31 would be revisited, or $26.5 would be.

This move would likely be a liquidity sweep. The opposing band of liquidity highlighted would likely tug on HYPE, which could make for a feasible short-term trade.

Final Thoughts

The long-term Hyperliquid trend was bearish, and a short-term range was established over the past six days.
Traders can wait for a bout of volatility in the late hours of Sunday to sweep a pocket of liquidity nearby, before looking to bet on a HYPE reversal to the opposing liquidity.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion

Akashnath S is a Senior Journalist and Technical Analysis expert at AMBCrypto. He specializes in dissecting price action, identifying key market trends through advanced chart patterns, and forecasting both short-term and long-term asset trajectories.
His distinct analytical method is grounded in his academic training as a Chemical Engineer. This background provides him with a systematic, process-oriented approach to market data, enabling him to analyze the complex dynamics of financial markets with precision and objectivity.
Having actively covered the cryptocurrency space since the landmark 2017 market cycle, Akashnath possesses years of experience navigating both bull and bear markets. This seasoned perspective is critical to his insightful reporting on market volatility and evolution.
As an active market participant, Akashnath enhances his analysis with crucial, hands-on experience. This practical application of his technical skills ensures his insights are not merely theoretical, but are also relevant and actionable for an audience looking to understand and navigate trading opportunities. He is dedicated to educating readers on the nuances of technical analysis, empowering them with the knowledge to make more informed financial decisions.

On December 13, 2025, Exor made a decisive move by declining Tether’s offer to purchase a controlling stake in Juventus Football Club. The Agnelli family’s holding company announced its unanimous decision to reject the all-cash bid that Tether submitted, which had an estimated value of several billion dollars. This outcome leaves Juventus under the continued ownership of Exor, maintaining the status quo within the football industry.

Exor’s decision to retain its 65.4% stake in Juventus underscores its long-term commitment to the club, one of Italy’s most storied football teams with a rich history dating back to its founding in 1897. Over the decades, Juventus has become synonymous with success in Italian and European football, having won numerous Serie A titles and multiple UEFA Champions League trophies. Exor, led by the influential Agnelli family, views the club not only as a financial asset but also as a key element of its cultural and historical identity. This decision reinforces Exor’s dedication to preserving its legacy in sports.

Tether, a prominent player in the cryptocurrency market, has been seeking to diversify its assets and expand into traditional sectors like sports. Its proposal to acquire Juventus was seen as a bold attempt to merge the rapidly growing crypto industry with established sports brands, potentially opening new revenue streams and enhancing fan engagement through digital channels. The offer was part of a broader strategy by Tether to leverage its position in the digital currency space to enter mainstream markets, marking a significant shift from its core operations focused primarily on stablecoins.

Despite the potential for a groundbreaking partnership, Exor’s rejection raises questions about the compatibility of cryptocurrency firms with traditional industries like sports. While the integration of digital assets into sports has been gaining traction globally, as seen with various clubs exploring blockchain technologies for ticketing and fan tokens, the move by Tether to outright own a major football club was unprecedented. This bid highlighted both the ambition and the challenges faced by crypto companies looking to diversify through acquisitions.

The denial of Tether’s offer by Exor may also signal caution within the sports sector regarding partnerships with volatile financial technologies. Cryptocurrency markets are known for their rapid fluctuations, and the stability of these assets is often debated. For a club like Juventus, which relies on steady revenue streams from sponsorships, ticket sales, and broadcasting rights, the volatility associated with a cryptocurrency firm could pose significant risks. The potential impact on the club’s financial health and its long-term business strategies likely influenced Exor’s decision to turn down the offer.

Throughout the global sports industry, digital innovation and the adoption of new technologies have been steadily increasing. Blockchain initiatives, such as fan engagement platforms and digital collectibles, are gaining popularity as clubs seek to enhance their digital presence and connect with a younger audience. However, full ownership shifts to crypto firms bring a different set of challenges and complexities, particularly in regulatory compliance and financial transparency.

For Tether, the rejection of its bid to acquire Juventus does not mark the end of its ambitions in sports. The company is expected to continue exploring other opportunities to embed cryptocurrency more deeply into the sports world, possibly through sponsorships or partnerships that do not require direct ownership stakes. Tether, whose stablecoin is pegged to the US dollar, has been focused on establishing itself as a reliable and versatile currency option, and its foray into sports could serve as a platform to showcase the potential uses of digital currencies beyond their current applications.

Juventus, meanwhile, remains firmly within the Agnelli family’s sphere of influence. The club’s historical ties to the family have been a significant part of its identity, and Exor’s decision to retain control ensures that this legacy continues. Juventus has been proactive in modernizing its operations, including adopting digital strategies that align with current trends. While the club may explore digital asset opportunities in the future, any such ventures will be managed under the careful oversight of Exor, which prioritizes stability and tradition.

This episode reflects broader market dynamics where traditional industries are cautiously navigating the rise of digital currencies and blockchain technology. As businesses and institutions consider integrating these innovations, they weigh the potential benefits against the risks associated with volatile markets and evolving regulatory landscapes. The outcome of this high-profile offer serves as a case study in the complexities of modern financial transactions involving crypto entities and traditional organizations.

Moreover, the sports industry is witnessing a transformation driven by digitalization and technological advancements. As teams and leagues explore new ways to engage fans and monetize their brand, they are also evaluating the role of digital currencies and blockchain in achieving these goals. The cautious stance by Exor, in this case, could influence other clubs and stakeholders as they navigate the intersection of sports and digital finance.

In sum, while Tether’s proposal to acquire Juventus was turned down, it underscores the growing interest of cryptocurrency companies in diversifying their portfolios and entering traditional markets. The intersection of crypto and sports presents both opportunities and challenges, as stakeholders work to balance innovation with stability. As the digital currency market continues to evolve, the ramifications of such offers will likely shape future interactions between these two dynamic sectors.

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On December 4, a critical incident involving Ethereum’s Fusaka mainnet upgrade exposed vulnerabilities, as Prysm developers detailed in a comprehensive post-mortem report. The upgrade, designed to enhance the network’s efficiency and scalability, instead led to significant operational challenges for validators due to resource exhaustion. This issue emerged during the processing of particular attestations, where excessive computational demands taxed the network’s capacity.

The incident unfolded when Prysm, one of Ethereum’s consensus clients, encountered unexpected bottlenecks. These bottlenecks were caused by a spike in resource consumption needed for state recomputation, a process critical to validating transactions and maintaining the blockchain’s integrity. This unexpected computational burden resulted in many validators experiencing performance degradation, which posed risks to the network’s overall stability.

Ethereum, as a blockchain platform, has been at the forefront of decentralized applications and smart contracts. Its upgrades like Fusaka are part of an ongoing effort to transition fully to Ethereum 2.0, which aims to address critical issues such as scalability, energy efficiency, and transaction speed. The Fusaka upgrade specifically intended to streamline processes and improve throughput, yet the incident highlighted the complexities and potential fragility inherent in such large-scale technological shifts.

In the post-mortem analysis, Prysm developers identified the root cause as an inadequately optimized algorithm for state recomputation, which was not thoroughly stress-tested under real-world conditions. The failure to anticipate the computational demands of these specific attestations led to nodes becoming overwhelmed and, in some cases, temporarily unable to participate in consensus. This event underscored the necessity for rigorous pre-deployment testing environments that mirror the unpredictability of mainnet operations.

To mitigate future issues, developers proposed several enhancements to the client’s architecture. These include optimizing the algorithm responsible for state recomputation and introducing more robust mechanisms for load balancing to prevent similar overloads. Additionally, the team is emphasizing the need for a collaborative approach, involving the broader Ethereum community in testing and refining new updates before their implementation.

Historically, Ethereum has experienced several upgrades, each bringing its own set of challenges and lessons. For example, the transition from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake has been gradual and fraught with obstacles. The Fusaka incident serves as a reminder of the intricate balance required between innovation and stability in blockchain technology. With the crypto market continuing to expand—valued at over $2 trillion globally—such incidents also highlight the critical role of infrastructure reliability in maintaining user confidence.

The incident also sheds light on the importance of consensus clients in the Ethereum ecosystem. These clients, like Prysm, are essential for ensuring that transactions are processed correctly and that the blockchain remains secure and immutable. As a result, any disruption in their functionality can have cascading effects across the network. This reinforces the need for continual updates, security audits, and community engagement to safeguard against vulnerabilities.

Despite the swift response from the Prysm development team and the subsequent enhancements proposed, the event did spark concerns within the crypto community about the readiness of Ethereum’s current infrastructure to handle its ambitious upgrade path. Critics argue that while technological advancement is crucial, it should not come at the expense of system reliability and user trust.

Moreover, the incident provides a cautionary tale for other blockchain projects. As the demand for decentralized solutions grows, so does the complexity of maintaining and upgrading these systems. Projects must consider the lessons from Ethereum’s experience, prioritizing thorough testing and robust infrastructure planning to avoid similar pitfalls.

In conclusion, the Fusaka upgrade incident underscores the challenges in evolving a major blockchain network like Ethereum. While the push towards Ethereum 2.0 remains a vital goal, ensuring that each step forward is backed by extensive testing and community involvement is crucial. The proactive measures taken by the Prysm team post-incident are a positive step, aiming to reinforce the network’s resilience and reliability in the face of future upgrades.

As Ethereum continues its journey towards becoming more scalable and efficient, the balance between innovative upgrades and maintaining network stability will be pivotal. The Fusaka incident, while a setback, also serves as an opportunity for reflection and improvement, emphasizing the importance of preparedness and adaptability in the rapidly changing landscape of blockchain technology. The lessons learned here will likely guide future developments and ensure that Ethereum remains a leading platform in the decentralized world.

Post Views: 14

Journalist

Posted: December 15, 2025

Since Mantra’s OM token crashed by over 99% in April, the project team and crypto exchange OKX have been embroiled in an ongoing blame game at the expense of investors. 

In a recent statement, the exchange claimed that the team borrowed ‘significant amounts of USDT’ and used OM as collateral to ‘inflate’ the price of the token. 

Following the price manipulation, the exchange’s risk team was forced to freeze the accounts and liquidate a portion of Mantra [OM] after the price fell slightly, triggering an aggressive sell-off across other platforms. 

OKX added, 

“There has been no explanation of where those unusually large quantities of OM originated, nor why these groups of individuals held and controlled such a substantial portion of the token supply.”

Source: X

The exchange called the Mantra team’s accusations a ‘misleading narrative.’ 

Mixed reactions to OM’s price crash
However, other users, like Park Yong, questioned OKX’s interest and posed, 

“If OKX  genuinely viewed $OM as a scam, the response would be simple: delist it, allow withdrawals, and move on.” 

He added, 

“Is this really about user protection, or is there internal exposure related to $OM that became uncomfortable once migration timelines came into play?”

For the unfamiliar, Mantra is a tokenization-focused protocol that will be migrating into a fully fledged Layer 1 (L2) from Ethereum.

As a result, it will change its ERC-20 governance token, OM, to MANTRA., The migration will be finalized by the 15th of January 2026.

With the migration schedule, OKX reached out to the team to help facilitate the conversion of its OM holdings. 

Although the exchange said that there were legal actions underway, Mantra CEO JP Mullin denied such actions, affirming, 

“Neither MANTRA or myself have any ongoing litigation or legal actions ongoing with OKX. This is between them and other larger traders/investors of OM.”

Source: X

Mantra reverses 600% gain
During the late 2024 rally, which extended into February 2025, OM posted a 600% gain.

Although it erased part of the gains amid early 2025 tariff headwinds, it dumped over 80% after OKX froze the team accounts amid manipulation claims. 

Source: OM price performance (TradingView)

As of press time, OM traded at $0.07 and had been experiencing overwhelmingly bearish sentiment in the Futures market, according to CoinGlass. 

But beyond the price chart, the chain has been positioning itself with new products, including a stablecoin, MantraUSD.

There are still over 36K holders of OM ahead of the migration. It remains to be seen whether the migration will help the chain move past the OKX and project team scandal. 

Final Thoughts 

The Mantra team and OKX have denied crashing the OM price by over 90% in 2025. 
Large OM investors were reportedly suing OKX for losses, according to the Mantra chain CEO.

Ethereum (ETH) appears to be approaching a decisive move as price action tightens beneath a critical resistance zone. After experiencing a sharp rejection from recent highs and completing a deep corrective phase, ETH has stopped declining and entered a compression range. While the asset has not yet demonstrated clear bullish strength, it is no longer showing signs of outright weakness. This transition phase is increasing pressure on both sides of the market, a setup that often precedes significant volatility.

From a medium-term technical perspective, Ethereum remains in a bearish structure. The price is still trading below its major moving averages, particularly the 100-day and 200-day averages, which continue to act as strong dynamic resistance. Each attempt to reclaim these levels has been aggressively sold, reinforcing the perception among traders that ETH is stuck in a range. However, markets rarely stagnate for long. Instead, they consolidate and coil before expanding in one direction.

The more important development lies in momentum. The most recent rebound from local lows was notably impulsive compared to prior relief rallies. Selling pressure has clearly diminished, with volume contracting during pullbacks and expanding during upward moves. This shift suggests that distribution is losing control. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index is gradually trending higher from neutral levels, a classic precondition for a directional breakout rather than a reversal driven by exhaustion.

If Ethereum can reclaim its short-term moving averages and hold above them, the next major test will be the resistance band near the long-term averages. A successful break and sustained hold above this zone would likely attract sidelined capital, shifting market sentiment back toward a bullish alignment. Historically, such transitions often lead to explosive price movements fueled by disbelief rather than hype.

On the downside, failure to hold current support would confirm the market’s lack of conviction and extend the consolidation phase. Importantly, this scenario would delay upside potential rather than invalidate the broader bullish thesis for Ethereum, keeping the long-term outlook constructive despite short-term uncertainty.

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Sunday’s pullback came despite the US XRP-spot ETF market extending its inflow streak to nineteen consecutive days. While the dip below $2 weighed on sentiment, the cautiously bullish short- and bullish medium-term outlook remains intact.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

Bank of Japan Rate Hike and Neutral Rate in Focus
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda signaled an imminent rate hike last week, citing wage growth and easing US tariff risks. Economists expect the BoJ to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% on Friday, December 19. A rate hike would follow the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut last week and would narrow the rate differential in favor of the yen.

Narrowing interest rate differentials make yen carry trades less profitable, leading to traders exiting positions in risk assets and repaying yen loans. 10-year JGB yields climbed to their highest level since April 2007 last week, fueling fears of a yen carry trade unwind.

Crucially, uncertainty about the BoJ’s neutral interest rate, where monetary policy is neither accommadative nor restrictive, has added to the market jitters. The BoJ may declare its neutral rate on Friday, December 19. The higher the neutral rate, the more rate hikes needed, and the narrower the US-Japan rate differential.

The inverse relationship between 10-year JGB yields and XRP price trends underscores the significance of the upcoming BoJ interest rate decision and a potential neutral rate announcement.

SoSoValue – XRP-Spot ETF Flows – 151225
Looking ahead, increased XRP adoption and crypto-friendly legislation would likely boost inflows, supporting a bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.

Last week, the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) announced the conditional approval of Ripple’s US-chartered banking license. The license will likely drive XRP utility, given that institutions using RLUSD can convert to XRP for FX bridging, liquidity operations, and cross-border payments.

Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Hinges on the BoJ, ETFs, and Legislation
The BoJ interest rate decision and forward guidance will be key for near-term price trends. However, legislative developments on Capitol Hill and XRP-spot ETF flows will also influence sentiment.

Crypto in America host Eleanor Terrett shared an interview with Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger. Mersinger expected the Market Structure Bill to be on the Senate Floor for a vote in the first quarter, stating:

“If things move the way they look like they’re moving, there’s a good chance that we could have market structure on the Senate floor in the first quarter of next year.”

Clear rules of the road for the US digital asset space would legitimize XRP. Combined with its increased utility, a crypto-friendly regulatory landscape would open the door to a wider investor base. XRP-spot ETFs would be a beneficiary, supporting the bullish medium- to longer-term price outlook.

In my view, these scenarios would support a near-term (1-4 weeks) move to $2.35 and a medium-term (4-8 weeks) climb to $2.5. A return to $2.5 would align with a longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3 plus price target.

Downside Risks to Bullish Outlook
While the short- to medium-term outlook remains bullish, several scenarios could derail the bullish sentiment. These include:

The Bank of Japan hikes interest rates and signals multiple rate hikes, leading to a yen carry trade unwind.
The MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Delistings would likely reduce interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
US Senate opposes the Market Structure Bill.
XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These events would likely drag XRP toward $1.9, exposing the November low of $1.82.

However, in my opinion, robust XRP-spot ETF inflows, a widening investor base, and progress toward crypto-friendly legislation support a longer-term move toward $3.

In summary, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish as fundamentals outweigh the technicals. Meanwhile, the medium- to longer-term outlook is constructive.

Financial Analysis
Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution
XRP fell 2.28% on Sunday, December 14, reversing the previous day’s 0.78% gain to close at $1.9774. The token tracked the broader crypto market, which declined 2.07%.

Sunday’s pullback left XRP below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias. While the technicals remain bearish, fundamentals are increasingly outweighing the technical structure.

Key technical levels to watch include:

Support levels: $1.9112 and $1.8239
50-day EMA resistance: $2.2140.
200-day EMA resistance: $2.4478.
Resistance levels: $2, $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

XRP advanced 0.91% in morning trading on Monday, December 15, 2025. A break above the $2.0 psychological resistance level would open the door to retesting the $2.2 resistance level and the 50-day EMA. A breakout above $2.2 and the 50-day EMA would enable the bulls to target the $2.35 resistance level.

Importantly, a sustained break above the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would suggest a medium-term (4-8 weeks) rise toward the 200-day EMA and the $2.5 level.

Journalist

Posted: December 15, 2025

Bitcoin [BTC] is starting to feel the heat of next week’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision.

With a 25 basis point rate hike widely expected, markets appear to be adjusting ahead of time. Recent data says risk is already being trimmed, raising the odds that the sell-off happens ahead of the headline.

This leaves room for a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” reaction once the decision is out.

Sayonara, BTC gains!
Bitcoin is slipping ahead of the BoJ’s expected 25 bps rate hike on the 19th of December… and we know this setup all too well. Previous rate hikes have repeatedly aligned with sharp BTC drawdowns as yen liquidity tightened and risk appetite faded.

In March 2024, Bitcoin fell about 23% after a rate hike. In July 2024, it dropped another 26%. January 2025 saw an even bigger pullback of nearly 31%. With another hike widely anticipated, traders appeared to de-risk early, pushing BTC lower before the announcement.

Source: X

The pattern of course, doesn’t guarantee a repeat. But it certainly explains why nerves are rising fast.

The selling may have started early
Investors aren’t waiting for the policy decision to react.

Source: Cryptoquant

During earlier BoJ hikes, Bitcoin saw Exchange Inflows rise after the announcement, signaling panic-driven spot selling.

This time, Exchange Netflows already showed rising inflows ahead of 19 December. That pointed to early spot selling and proactive risk reduction.

Source: Cryptoquant

Funding behaviors also have a similar reaction.

During prior hikes, Funding Rates collapsed after the decision. Now, they have already drifted lower and turned unstable, suggesting that leverage was unwinding in advance.

That move aligned with expectations, becoming fully priced

So what happens after the meeting?
That early adjustment changes how this plays out. Unlike past hikes, the BoJ’s shift has been talked about for months. Yen carry trades already unwound, and tighter liquidity was no longer a shock. As a result, much of the pressure may already be reflected in price.

What matters next is the yen’s reaction. If it gets stronger after the decision, risk assets (including Bitcoin) could stay under stress. But if the yen doesn’t beef up much, the market may have little left to sell. In that case, a short-term relief move isn’t off the table.

At this point, the hike itself matters less than how markets respond once it’s finally out of the way.

Final thoughts

Bitcoin is weak of the BoJ’s expected 25 bps rate hike. Traders are de-risking early and unwinding leverage.
BTC’s next move may depend on the yen’s reaction, not the rate decision itself.

The Metals Company's stock has skyrocketed on hopes that it can fill a critical gap in the U.S. supply chain.

After dropping more than 50% from its mid-October highs, The Metals Company (TMC 9.90%) hit a critical rebound at the end of November. While not quite at its 52-week high, the stock has gained 16% over the last month, with an astonishing 470% gain on the year.

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Although a gain like that usually signals a major fundamental shift, in TMC's case, it mainly reflects optimism about future demand for metals as the U.S. tries to reduce its reliance on China.

The policy tailwinds in TMC's sails
That optimism isn't coming out of left field.

In April, the White House issued an executive order (EO) explicitly targeting offshore critical minerals and deep-sea resources. Citing a "national security" interest, the EO called for the acceleration of "responsible development of seabed mineral resources," which was music to TMC's ears.

Prior to this support from the White House, TMC was at an impasse.

While the company has demonstrated that its deep-sea mining technology is operational, it lacks the go-ahead from the International Seabed Authority (ISA) to mine critical minerals from the sea.

What's worse is that the ISA has not adopted a final regulatory rulebook for commercial seabed mining. Until the rulebook is finalized, companies like TMC are stuck looking at billions of dollars of critical minerals with no clear path to extract them.

Image source: The Metals Company.

The U.S., however, never ratified the treaty that created the ISA and could, in theory, pursue its own interests over the agency's. That could create a political fiasco later, but for the moment, TMC is exploring a U.S. path that could see it mining the seabed commercially earlier than anticipated.

Its operations seem even more urgent in today's climate. The U.S., in an attempt to reduce its dependence on China, has stitched together a web of critical minerals agreements with allies like Australia, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, and others.

The company still has no commercial revenue. But because of its immense resource base, investors are optimistic that its role in the U.S. supply chain is just beginning.

Montréal, December 14, 2025 – TheNewswire - St-Georges Eco-Mining Corp. (CSE: SX) (OTCQB: SXOOF) (FSE: 85G1) announces the results of its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, held in Montréal on December 12, 2025. The scrutineers from Computershare Investor Services Inc. reported that the vote at the AGM, in person or by proxy, amounted to a total of 108,644,912 shares, being 34.77% of the total 312,451,305 outstanding shares of St-Georges Eco-Mining Corp.

HomeETFs and Funds AnalysisETF Analysis

SummaryGXC remains a buy, supported by improving profit expectations and solid year-to-date outperformance versus the S&P 500.The ETF trades at a modest sub-14x P/E, with large-cap, consumer discretionary, and communication services exposures dominating the portfolio.Liquidity is mixed—low average daily volume and wide bid/ask spreads necessitate limit orders, especially near market open.Technical outlook is constructive: bullish seasonality in January, a rising 200-day moving average, and strong support at $96–$97. Getty Images

Chinese stocks may seem like a bargain at 12.7x earnings, but that price-to-earnings multiple is actually fractionally above the 20-year average, according to FactSet data put together by J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Still, with improving profit expectations among companies from the world’s

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Rigetti's returns over the past several years are unlikely to be repeated in the coming five years.

There are pockets of the market that have soared over the past several years, and quantum computing stocks are some of the most high-flying. Investors are excited about the possibility of computers that are so advanced they can help create new materials, discover new drugs, and make artificial intelligence models even smarter.

Among the most popular quantum computing stocks is Rigetti Computing (RGTI 3.87%), which develops hardware and software in this space, and whose share price has increased by 484% over the past year.

The stock has pulled back recently as investors have become a bit more cautious about more speculative investments, which makes it a good time to consider where Rigetti could be in five years. Here's where the company might be headed.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why some investors are betting on Rigetti
Before we can attempt to predict where Rigetti might end up in the coming years, it's essential to understand why investors have been so enthusiastic about this company. Rigetti is making progress in a quantum computing market that could be sizable, reaching $72 billion by 2035.

Rigetti differentiates itself in the quantum computing market by providing tech companies a full-stack quantum computing offering, including hardware and software. This includes everything from designing and manufacturing processors to infrastructure and software, enabling tech companies to have an end-to-end quantum computing product.

Microsoft and Amazon already offer some of Rigetti's quantum computing services to their customers, and Nvidia is collaborating with Rigetti on hybrid computing systems (in which traditional computers and quantum computers work together).

Having established early inroads with these leading tech companies is a positive sign for Rigetti. With the company offering a comprehensive quantum computing solution, this could be an advantage over competitors in the coming years.

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Where could Rigetti be in five years?
I've tried to give Rigetti a fair shake in the above section, highlighting some of the reasons why investors are optimistic about the company's future. However, it's now time to ground those expectations in the reality of Rigetti's financial performance, or lack thereof.

Rigetti's management shed some light on where it's headed when CEO Subodh Kulkarni said in the first-quarter earnings call that

Really, the goal should be to get a quantum computer to Narrow Quantum Advantage. And that's really when commercial sales and sales in general start making sense. And we are talking at least three years from now, maybe four to five years from now.

Did you catch that? Rigetti's leadership doesn't expect its own technology to have meaningful commercial sales until three to five years from now. That's notable, especially considering that the company's revenue declined 18% in Q3 to $1.9 million. Hats off to Rigetti's leadership for being forthcoming about how long it will take significant revenue to arrive.

At the same time that Rigetti is struggling with revenue growth, its costs are also rising. Rigetti's operating expenses rose 13% to nearly $21 million in Q3.

All of this means that Rigetti will continue to operate at a loss for many more years before the company even begins to generate significant sales. And even then, there's no guarantee that profits will follow.

Should you buy Rigetti stock?
I don't think buying Rigetti stock is a good idea right now, considering revenue is declining and isn't expected to be significant for many more years, and because of the company's rising costs.

Furthermore, Rigetti's stock is expensive, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio exceeding 1,000. That's astronomically high when you consider the average P/S ratio for the tech sector is only 9.

That means investors buying Rigetti stock now are significantly overpaying for a company in which meaningful revenue is still years away. Investors should instead keep a close eye on the company's developments -- and the broader quantum computing market in general -- for signs of significant growth if and when it comes.