Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

U.S. manufacturing output recovered from 98.2 in August to a preliminary 98.4 in September, matching July’s reading. Some Scenarios The most supportive combination would be easing real yields along with resilient activity. For the weekly outlook, this distinction matters a bit. The favorable monetary environment can encourage investment demand, while manufacturers may still be a bit cautious if final demand is uncertain. Stronger production, on the other hand, can improve the industrial case even when monetary conditions remain somewhat restrictive.

Unemployment Claims Thursday’s unemployment claims report illustrates why the growth picture remains somewhat mixed. Initial claims declined to 194,000 for the week ending October 17, while continuing claims increased to 1.728 million for the week ending October 10. These are differently dated measures, but they give us an idea of what is going on through the broader U.S. economy.

Inflation complicates the outlook for industrial margins and financing as well. September final-demand producer prices rose 1.3% month over month, seasonally adjusted, and 6.3% year over year, unadjusted, in the October 15 release. These are broad producer-price measures, not a silver input-cost index, so silver should just be thought of as a bit of a component in the larger picture. Persistent cost pressure could squeeze some manufacturers or encourage restrictive monetary policy, so these numbers will be watched.

Federal Reserve Meeting Next week’s first major test is the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, October 28, scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern, with a 2:30 p.m. press conference. A policy message that permits real yields to stay lower could help silver’s monetary argument. A renewed emphasis on inflation could restrain the market, as tighter monetary policy continues to work against it.

On October 29, there is the BEA advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays announcement, coming out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. GDP can help us assess demand and investment conditions. The personal income and outlays release supplies PCE inflation and household-spending evidence. For silver, resilient real demand with moderating inflation would be a favorable combination.

There’s not a lot of bullishness in the silver market right now.

After surging to just over $120 per ounce in January, silver corrected and has lost more than half its value.

Given the metal's trajectory over the last 10 months, bearishness is understandable. But as technical analyst Jesse Colombo pointed out in a recent Substack article, many investors delivering silver’s last rites today only started paying attention as silver neared that $120 peak.

“They piled in near the very top, just weeks or even days before silver peaked at $121, only to lose interest when it corrected, as all overheated assets eventually do. Then they simply moved on to what they believe is the latest and greatest hot asset, whether it’s an overvalued and overhyped AI stock, a new cryptocurrency, or whatever else the lemmings are currently piling into.”

Colombo believes these investors have completely missed the big picture.

“Naturally, most of those same investors had practically no interest in silver when I foresaw the bull market beginning in early 2024, when it was still trading in the $20s. Now that silver has cooled off, they are once again nowhere to be found.”

And Colombo thinks they are about to miss out on “the next powerful leg of this bull market.”

“This is the time to be paying close attention and accumulating while it is still quite cheap. The next move is going to take most investors by surprise, and they will only want to pile back in once silver is overheated again and all over the news.”

A cup of SilverColombo said he has been following a “silver bull market roadmap” for the past couple of years. That roadmap is a massive cup-and-handle pattern that's been forming since the 1960s.

A cup-and-handle pattern is an extremely bullish technical indicator.

As Colombo noted, this decades-in-the-making pattern “projects the metal reaching hundreds of dollars per ounce following a breakout.”

That breakout occurred when silver finally surged through $50 last October.

That $50 level served as a firm resistance level for decades. Silver hit that level twice: the first time in the 1980s, and then again nearly two years after the Great Recession. Colombo said that now that silver broke this resistance, history tells us silver is poised for a massive run higher.

“Although silver has since cooled off, the breakout remains very much valid and in play, and I see the next powerful leg higher beginning soon once this necessary cooling-off period is complete.”

After the breakout, Colombo warned that silver was due for a “healthy cooling-off period,” but it would not mark the end of the bull market.

“I continue to stand by that view today.”

Colombo noted that the “relative strength index (RSI)” tracks sentiment in the silver market. The RSI clearly shows that silver became extremely overheated and overbought in late 2025 and early 2026.

Today, the RSI has moderated, revealing that silver is closer to oversold. Colombo said this indicates, “the worst of the correction is behind us and that anyone calling for a sharp crash from here has the odds stacked against them.”

Colombo noted that silver has held the $50 support level throughout the correction.

“This means silver’s breakout remains fully intact and in play as long as it continues to hold above $50, which has now become a key support level.”

Colombo pointed out that silver appears to be forming a “double bottom.” We might see a final flush that pushes silver below $50 before it ultimately bottoms and then off on the next leg higher. But he said this isn’t his “base-case expectation.”

“There is no hard-and-fast rule that says silver must precisely touch the $50 support level before its correction can come to an end.”

The gold-silver ratio is another key technical indicator for silver. This ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold at the current spot price. For instance, a ratio of 70-1 means it takes 70 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold.

In the modern era, the gold-silver ratio has averaged between 40-1 and 60-1. When it rises far above that level, it tends to snap back to the mean as silver prices rise and close the gap.

Colombo notes that the gold-silver ratio is currently in a triangle pattern, a common occurrence when asset prices pause and consolidate.

“In technical analysis, triangle patterns often act as continuation patterns, meaning that once the necessary consolidation or cooling-off period has run its course, the original trend resumes in the same direction, setting the stage for a repeat of the prior move.”

Colombo said that when this pattern breaks down, he expects it will kick off the next phase of the bull market. At that point, silver will likely surge back to its record high of $121 and beyond.

Finally, Colombo said that the fact we never saw true silver mania grip the market supports his belief that this is a short-term correction, not a top and a pending multi-year bear market. He noted that iShares Silver Trust reported a “lukewarm” 30 million ounce increase in silver holdings even as the price increased sixfold.

“That kind of lukewarm interest from American investors is simply not what you would expect to see during a true bubble mania immediately before a violent collapse and years of declining prices. My bet, however, is that the real mania still lies ahead of us and will begin to unfold once silver surpasses its January peak of $121, ultimately taking the metal into the hundreds of dollars per ounce.”

Colombo also noted that American Silver Eagle sales “fell off a cliff” during those years.

“To me, this is further confirmation that silver’s long-term bull market did not end in January 2026. There simply was not enough mainstream investor participation to mark a true secular peak.”

Colombo concludes, asserting that “mainstream investors are notoriously fickle, and that seems to be especially true when it comes to silver.”

“They tend to take an interest only after silver is already posting explosive gains, pile in too late just before a correction, and then blame silver when they lose money, claiming that it is a bad investment. The reality is that the problem is not silver or silver miners, but their own poor timing and investing behavior.”

Colombo said that this correction presents a buying opportunity.

“The time to pay close attention and accumulate is when silver seems boring, and investors are giving up on it, because that is when it is setting up for its next leg higher. I sincerely believe that is where we are today. The 2026 correction has tested investors’ patience, but those who stayed the course will be richly rewarded when silver’s next powerful leg higher begins.”

TL;DR: Silver has dropped roughly 2.8% to 56.32, sharply underperforming gold’s 1.2% decline, as renewed attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep Brent near $110 and revive inflation-driven tightening concerns. A break below 55.37 would expose the 54.85–54.77 support cluster, with a deeper fall potentially bringing the $50 level back into focus.

Why This Matters
Silver is falling as escalating security risks in Saudi Arabia keep oil prices elevated and renew concerns about inflation-driven monetary tightening. Brent is trading around $110.84 following attacks on Saudi infrastructure and a further decline in US crude inventories, while silver has dropped approximately 2.8% to 56.32, substantially underperforming gold’s 1.2% decline. The divergence suggests that inflation and interest-rate concerns are weighing more heavily on precious metals than any immediate safe-haven support from geopolitical uncertainty.

Technically, silver’s recovery from 55.37 may have ended at 58.60, leaving the metal vulnerable to another decline toward its recent low. A break below 55.37 would expose the 54.85–54.77 support cluster, with a deeper fall potentially bringing the $50 area back into focus. The rising Gold/Silver ratio provides additional evidence of silver’s relative weakness, although a sustained breakdown remains unconfirmed.

Saudi Escalation Keeps Oil and Inflation Risks Elevated
Renewed attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure have heightened concerns about the security of Middle East energy supplies. On Wednesday, Saudi air defenses intercepted a drone targeting Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield, with falling debris killing two people and injuring two others. Saudi authorities said operations were unaffected. The US State Department also ordered non-emergency government personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid increasing attacks on civilian airports and critical infrastructure. These developments have raised the perceived risk of future supply disruptions, even though no production loss was reported at Shaybah.

Brent crude remained elevated near $110, while US Energy Information Administration data showed crude inventories falling by 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels in the week ending October 16. The combination of geopolitical supply risks and tighter inventories is helping sustain oil prices, reinforcing concerns that elevated energy costs could prolong inflation pressures. That, in turn, raises the risk that the Fed may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer, or tighten further if inflation proves persistent. However, a fresh increase in market-implied Fed hike probabilities has not been established, and Brent has yet to confirm a sustained closing breakout above the 109.97 technical reference level.

Why Is Silver Underperforming Gold Despite a Subdued Dollar Backdrop?
Silver’s renewed decline is notable because the earlier Dollar and Treasury-yield backdrop offered little fresh direction. Dollar Index was hovering around 101.7, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remained near 5.11%, broadly unchanged. Silver had consequently spent much of the previous week fluctuating between approximately 55.37 and 58.60. The latest geopolitical developments have introduced another potential source of pressure through oil prices and the inflation outlook, even without a decisive accompanying rise in Dollar or Treasury yields.

Silver is also underperforming gold by a substantial margin. Gold declined around 1.2% toward 4,091 in the supplied market snapshot, compared with silver’s 2.8% fall toward 56.32. Silver’s combination of precious-metal and industrial characteristics leaves it exposed not only to higher interest-rate expectations but also to concerns that elevated energy costs and tighter financial conditions could restrain economic activity. The Gold/Silver ratio has consequently risen toward 72.6, reflecting a clear deterioration in silver’s relative performance. The divergence is consistent with inflation and growth concerns outweighing any immediate safe-haven benefit from the escalation.

Positioning Offers Limited Support, but Capitulation Is Unconfirmed
Speculative positioning had already weakened before the latest selloff. CFTC data indicate that managed-money net longs in COMEX silver futures declined steadily through October:

Mid-September: ~13,100 contracts
Early October: ~7,500 contracts
October 13: ~5,600 contracts

The reduction suggests that speculative exposure was relatively light even before silver’s sharp decline on October 14, potentially limiting the extent of further liquidation from previously crowded long positions.

However, the positioning figures predate that decline and cannot establish whether additional long liquidation or short selling has subsequently occurred. The next CFTC report should provide a clearer picture of how speculative investors responded. Available inventory figures also offer insufficient evidence of an acute physical-market shortage capable of offsetting the prevailing selling pressure. For now, positioning provides context for the decline rather than a convincing argument that silver has reached a durable bottom.

ActionForex’s Technical View: Silver, 55.37 and 54.77 Guard Against a Fall Toward $50
Silver’s recovery from 55.37 stalled at 58.60 after encountering resistance around the 55 4H EMA. The subsequent decline supports the possibility that the rebound was corrective and has already completed. Near-term bias therefore favors another test of 55.37, particularly while silver remains below the four-hour moving average, currently around 58.14.

A decisive break below 55.37 would expose the 61.8% projection of 61.44 to 55.37 from 58.60 at approximately 54.85. This lies close to the more important daily support at 54.77, making the area a critical test of the broader bearish scenario. A firm break through this support cluster would open the way toward the 100% projection at 52.53.

More importantly, a sustained daily break below 54.77 would strengthen the case for an extension of the medium term down trend toward the 61.8% projection of 89.36 to 54.77 from 71.17 at 49.78, near the psychological $50 level.

Nevertheless, the larger downside scenario remains conditional. Silver has not yet broken 55.37, and the 54.85–54.77 support cluster could still attract buying interest. A recovery above the four-hour 55 EMA would weaken immediate selling pressure, while a sustained break above 58.60 would invalidate the interpretation that the latest rebound has completed.

Meanwhile, the Gold/Silver ratio’s renewed advance is adding to the bearish case for silver, with its own technical structure pointing to potential further relative weakness.

ActionForex’s Technical View: Gold/Silver Ratio, Rebound Raises Risk of Further Silver Underperformance
The Gold/Silver ratio’s pullback from 74.14 appears to have found support at 70.91, near the rising four-hour trend line and 55 4H EMA. The subsequent rebound toward 72.6 suggests that the correction could have ended, preserving the broader bullish structure established since the September low at 64.65. A further advance toward 74.14 is favored while the trend-line support holds.

A sustained break above 74.14 would indicate resumption of the larger advance, opening the way toward the 61.8% projection around 76.9–76.95 on the daily chart. Such a move would signal further silver underperformance relative to gold and reinforce the bearish silver outlook, particularly if accompanied by a decisive break below 55.37.

For now, the combination of elevated oil prices, renewed inflation concerns and deteriorating relative performance leaves silver vulnerable to another downward leg. However, a move toward $50 requires confirmation through the 55.37 and 54.77 support levels, rather than being an established outcome of the current decline.

Key Takeaways

Silver has dropped ~2.8% to 56.32, far underperforming gold’s 1.2% decline, as renewed Saudi infrastructure attacks keep Brent near $110 and revive inflation-tightening fears.
CFTC positioning shows managed-money net longs in silver futures already shrinking before the selloff (13,100 → 7,500 → 5,600 contracts from mid-September to October 13), which could limit further long liquidation.
The Gold/Silver ratio has climbed to 72.6, with a sustained break above 74.14 signaling further silver underperformance relative to gold.
Silver’s key technical level is 55.37: a firm break exposes the 54.85–54.77 support cluster, and a deeper daily break below 54.77 opens the door toward the psychological $50 level (49.78 projection).
Brent remains elevated near $110 on Saudi supply risk, but has yet to confirm a sustained break above 109.97—so a fresh jump in Fed hike expectations is not yet established.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Silver Prices Rebound Above $58 as BofA's $75 Outlook Faces a Solar Test BofA expects silver prices to recover in 2027, but manufacturers' efforts to use less of the metal leave investment demand carrying more of the burden. The silver price in US dollars rose 2.2% to $58.13 an ounce on Tuesday, recovering some ground after last week's inflation-driven losses.

Bank of America projects $75 for the second and third quarters of 2027, but its nearer-term forecast of $55 for the final quarter of 2026 allows for renewed weakness.

The bank's industrial assessment is cautious: "We expect a surplus in 2026, and further out, the fundamental outlook is less clear cut on a risk that silver substitution accelerates."

Solar expansion is no guarantee of silver demand BofA says: "The silver market has rebalanced on production discipline and demand from new applications including solar panels."

Its concern is how much metal each new installation requires: "Spending on solar panels has boosted silver demand, but a shift in technology likely reduces consumption by 11% in 2026."

That warning concerns solar-related consumption, rather than an 11% fall in total industrial demand.

Fraunhofer ISE's pilot work reduced silver use in a widely produced solar-cell design to roughly a tenth of typical levels, using copper for most electrical conduction.

"So-called nickel/copper electroplating could be firmly established in the photovoltaic market within two to three years," researcher Sven Kluska said in April.

The Silver Institute's annual outlook also warned: "Industrial demand is projected to decline by 3 percent, chiefly due to a further and marked slowdown in PV offtake."

That April assessment still anticipated a market deficit, unlike BofA's more recent surplus forecast.

A greater role for investment buying The sell-off following last week's US inflation figures showed how interest-rate expectations can overwhelm the industrial story.

Higher yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to silver, which pays no income.

BofA sees scope for a change in what drives prices: "Silver could trade more like a precious metal".

It identifies returning investors and stronger Chinese imports as upside risks, with fund liquidation and additional supply on the downside.

Silver Price Forecast FAQ When does BofA expect silver at $75?

Its forecast is $75 an ounce for the second and third quarters of 2027, rather than an immediate target.

Why is solar demand a concern?

Manufacturers are reducing the amount of silver used in solar cells, potentially weakening demand even as installations increase.

Does BofA expect a silver shortage this year?

No. Its latest assessment anticipates a surplus in 2026 and identifies faster substitution as a risk further ahead.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after posting losses in the previous day, trading around $57.60 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Silver climbed amid fading expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in October.

Market sentiment shifted after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke at an International Monetary Fund event on Friday, stating that he does not prejudge interest-rate decisions and offering no clear indication of whether the central bank will raise or hold short-term rates at its upcoming October 27–28 meeting.

Market expectations for a rate increase have dropped significantly. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in nearly an 83.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged later this month, a sharp rise from the 49% chance priced in just a month earlier.

Safe-haven demand further supported precious metals as rising anxieties around AI-related investments sparked a broader stock market selloff and dragged bond yields down. Rabobank observes that recent market turbulence has been particularly acute in the AI complex, noting that “AI-related stocks have had a tough few days.” At the same time, stress has also surfaced in associated credit markets. The bank notes that “CoreWeave’s bonds made headlines for not exactly the best reasons” and adds that, according to the Financial Times, investors are now “dumping data centre bonds” more broadly, underscoring how quickly sentiment has soured across this previously favoured theme.

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around $57.80 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Friday. Silver prices advanced as a sharp selloff in equity markets triggered renewed safe-haven demand for precious metals. This capital flight into safer assets drove bond yields significantly lower, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Silver and offering broad support to the metal.

Adding to the bullish momentum, investors digested intensifying geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Tensions flared following escalating hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, alongside an incident earlier in the week where an Iranian projectile struck and sank a Singapore-flagged container ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, market participants continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path, as recent robust US economic data bolstered expectations of tighter borrowing conditions. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a roughly 72% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates steady this month, while expectations for a rate increase in December have risen to 92%.

CTA short covering in rates spills over into precious metalsAccording to TD Securities, “CTAs are extremely active cross-asset today,” with “notable short-covering across the board in the rates complex.” This shift in positioning is “helping CTAs to reverse course on yesterday's large-scale gold selling,” while “silver, platinum and palladium are also all seeing CTA short covering,” easing some of the systematic pressure that has weighed on the precious metals space.

Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $57.80, extending its decline below both the short-term and medium-term trend metrics, which keeps the near-term bias bearish. The price is currently under the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting that rebounds remain capped while the broader downswing persists. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.85 stays in low-neutral territory, hinting at lingering downside pressure but not yet extreme oversold conditions, while the latest FXS Fed Sentiment Index reading at 127.51 reinforces the idea that macro policy expectations still lean against precious metals.

On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the nine-day EMA at $58.81, where any recovery would likely stall initially, followed by a more solid barrier at the 50-day EMA near $62.46 that defines the upper boundary of the current corrective phase. With no clear nearby support levels derived from the available indicators, traders may look to recent lows and psychological round figures as provisional floors, while the bearish bias is expected to hold as long as XAG/USD trades below the clustered moving average resistance.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver attempts to stabilize near $55 as surging U.S. producer prices and uncertain industrial demand threaten the durability of any short-term rebound.

Silver has to deal with a substantial producer price increase on Thursday, as the BLS reported that September final-demand PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month, seasonally adjusted, and 6.3% from a year earlier, unadjusted. The measure excluding food, energy, and trade services increased 0.5% monthly.

U.S. producer prices rose 10.8% for energy, 2.6% for all goods, and 0.8% for services in September 2026. The composition matters as much as the headline for the silver market, as final-demand energy prices rose 10.8% monthly, compared with 2.6% for goods overall and 0.8% for services. Goods excluding food and energy increased 0.3%. These categories overlap, so their percentage changes are not necessarily an additive contribution to the headline index.

Mixed Industrial Signal The report creates a mixed industrial signal. Higher selling prices can reflect pressure on purchasing power, as traders have to determine whether or not there is a volume increase in goods being produced or if it is just simple component pricing. The monetary channel can be more immediate. Persistent inflation could make policymakers less comfortable with easing and could sustain future financing costs, which are somewhat elevated.

For a non-yielding investment position in something like silver, competing returns can be a headwind. For an industrial user, financing and input expenses can affect inventory decisions. These are economic mechanisms, not verified explanations for a particular silver price movement today, but something worth watching.

Distinction Between Prices and Quantities Is Especially Useful Here The Federal Reserve’s latest completed decision was its September 16 increase in the federal funds target range to 3.75% to 4%. Its statement emphasized elevated inflation. Today’s PPI may add more information relative to that policy debate, but it does not necessarily change the policy rate itself.

The latest official daily Treasury observations also precede the release. The 2-year nominal par yield was 4.82% yesterday, compared with 4.79% the day before. Meanwhile, the 10-year real yield declined to 2.84% from 2.88%. These movements show why silver’s financing backdrop should not be reduced to a simple blanket statement that all yields are rising.

Yesterday’s CPI Yesterday’s consumer price report adds some context as well. Headline CPI rose 0.6% monthly, seasonally adjusted, and 3.7% annually, unadjusted. Alongside today’s producer data, it keeps inflation relevant to the monetary discussion. Neither index directly measures purchases of silver, and their different coverage prevents a mechanical comparison of headline news.

That being said, this is a market that will continue to be somewhat based around competing focuses, with industrial activity highlighted by the Federal Reserve production report from September 18 covering August. It says manufacturing output declined 0.3%, while total industrial production was unchanged. The manufacturing index was 98.2 against July’s 98.4, with 2007 equal to 100 as a measuring guide.

Silver Price Forecast

Every new Silver analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Silver forecasts A manufacturer facing higher costs has to reduce production, maintain output, or pass costs to consumers. Each outcome has different implications for silver use. Without newer activity data, the PPI acceleration alone cannot resolve whether industrial demand is absorbing pressures.

Silver’s electrical and electronic applications provide a reason to watch manufacturing, as documented by the U.S. Geological Survey. However, aggregate U.S. output is only a broad indicator. It cannot establish demand across each end use, and it does not capture the entire global silver market.

Tomorrow’s industrial production release, scheduled at 9:15 a.m. Eastern, is an important next test. Firmer activity alongside stable financing conditions would support a more constructive interpretation. Weaker production combined with rising real yields would create an even more difficult combination for the industrial case of silver.

Technical outlook

Silver futures trade near $56.82, below the $60 resistance level and above the $55 support area. The silver market finds itself testing the crucial $55 level and is seeing some relief. I suspect that the market is trying to find its footing, and short-term opportunities ot the upside could continue. However, I also see this as a short-lived scenario as the fundamentals continue to sour.

Strong institutional demand should remain a key long-term structural element. September’s net inflows into global gold ETFs totaled $10 billion, adding 67 tonnes and bringing total holdings to an all-time high of 4,256 tonnes. Third-quarter inflows to ETFs reached an all-time high of $31 billion.

Silver: Tight Supply Meets Softer Industrial Demand Silver’s price tends to track gold’s but also reflects industrial demand and Fed policy. Unlike gold, however, silver faces a persistent physical supply-demand deficit. The Silver Institute expects the sixth straight year of a structural deficit for 2026, estimated at 46.3 million ounces, with industrial fabrication falling 3% to around 640 million ounces due to further decreases in loadings by the photovoltaic industry and other industries switching to alternative materials.

The Institute expects stronger investment demand to offset some weakness in industrial demand, while the market remains in deficit. Coin and bar investment in silver is expected to grow by 18% to 258 million ounces, while total supply is expected to decline by 2% to around 1.066 billion ounces.

There was ample evidence in September to support this view. For example, Indian silver ETFs attracted inflows of 19.74 billion rupees. Strong investor demand for precious metals, in general, was also evidenced during the broader equity market sell-off.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Holds Above $4,128 as $4,161 Caps the Recovery Gold – Chart Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $4,133.61, after a bounce from the $4,073.63 area on the 2-hour time frame. I like to draw your attention to the fact that the price bounce has taken gold above the $4,107-$4,128 area, but is still below a descending trend line and a resistance area formed by the moving averages. Thus, the overall bearish trend is still intact, despite the current bounce.The first area of interest on the upside is at $4,161.46, above which $4,181.44 and $4,216.96 would come into play. On the other hand, the first support comes in at $4,127.56, below which $4,107.28, $4,088.10, and $4,073.63 would come into focus.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecastsThe RSI is around the 50 level, suggesting neutral momentum. A sustained move above 50 would strengthen the bullish case, while a decline below that level would indicate renewed selling pressure. Although the broader trend remains bearish, I am slightly bullish on gold in the short term as long as it is above $4,128. A break below $4,128 would weaken the recovery. A clear break above $4,161 would give a stronger bullish edge to the setup. On the other hand, a break below the $4,107 area would strengthen the bearish case and bring 4,088-4,074 back in focus.

Silver – Chart Silver is trading at $56.03 on the 2-hour chart, continuing its decline while trading below the descending trend line and both moving averages. What I find particularly noteworthy is that the price has broken through several Fibonacci support levels and is now consolidating near the recent lows, which keeps the larger trend structure bearish.

The first support I have my eyes on is $55.41. A clear break below that would bring $54.85 into play, and subsequently $54.29. On the upside, $56.34 is the first resistance, with $56.92, $57.40 and $57.86 becoming further resistance levels if tested.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around $60.00 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Tuesday. Silver is struggling as rising oil prices fuel inflation concerns, bolstering expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates typically weigh on precious metals like Silver, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Geopolitical tensions also remain at the forefront for investors. Markets are closely monitoring reports that the US is considering joining Saudi Arabia in its campaign against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. Meanwhile, sentiment remains fragile following news that the recently announced Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" has already been violated.

Adding to the pressure, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 18-month highs ahead of critical economic releases. Investors are awaiting key inflation reports, including Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index and Thursday’s Producer Price Index, to gauge the Fed's policy path. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in roughly an 80% chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged this month, alongside an 88% probability of a rate hike in December.

Fed Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack underscored a stronger-than-usual bias toward tighter policy. The emphasis on the need for higher interest rates, a restrictive stance to re-anchor inflation at 2%, and concern that an inflationary mindset is becoming ingrained—amid neutral financial conditions and AI-driven demand pressures—signals a preference for swift, smaller rate tweaks to keep policy tight and responsive. Hammack’s focus on broad-based inflation, firm pricing power, and the duty to clarify the reaction function reinforces a message that the Fed should not assume inflation expectations are safely anchored and that the economy can withstand more tightening.

Fed expectations seen steady as US CPI loomsAnalysts at Societe Generale highlight Wednesday’s US CPI release as the key event for markets, arguing that a move in core inflation to “2.5% (the market consensus)” is unlikely to alter the prevailing policy outlook. In their view, such a print would leave “little chance of any shift in market expectations: no rate hike this month, but a very strong chance of one in December and another in Q1.”

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver continues to see noisy back-and-forth trading. The Monday session continues to be a session that is watching interest rates closely.

Silver Technical Analysis

Daily chart of Silver Futures (SI1!) on TradingView with price hovering around 60.895 just above the key demand zone. The silver market initially tried to rally during the trading session here on Monday but has rolled over. Keep in mind, it’s going to be very thin trading. It’s a bank holiday in the United States and Canada, as well as, I believe, Japan. With all that being said, I wouldn’t read too much into the daily candlestick.

Interest Rates Continue to Drive Moves Interest rates in America did rise a little bit in the futures market, but not enough to really get things moving too rapidly. We just seem to be bumping along, with the $60 level offering a bit of support, extending down to the $55 level. This area remains the most important area of the chart.

Ultimately, a short-term pullback at this point in time probably attracts a certain amount of buying pressure. But if we were to break down below there, then the market will challenge $55. Anything underneath that level would be very negative, as it would be a breach of massive support.

To the upside, we have the 50-day EMA as well as the 200-day EMA. Basically, right around the $64 level would be the average of the two, and that’s an area that previously had been support. So, would it be resistance on the way back up? That will be the question.

Follow the interest rates and see how they’re behaving. If interest rates start rolling over, that will generally speaking help silver. We’ll just have to see if we get a little bit of external pressure to the upside in order to help buyers out here.

Silver Price Forecast

Every new Silver analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Silver forecastsIf you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

Latest news and analysis

XAG/USD Forecast: UBS Recovery View Faces Yield Pressure Silver price rebound faces pressure from speculative selling and higher US real yields, Goldman Sachs warns, as UBS forecasts further gains in 2027. Silver prices rebounded on Friday, but UBS's forecast of $80 an ounce by September 2027 still depends on a substantial recovery from a market that has struggled to turn encouraging industrial indicators into sustained buying.

Spot silver closed near $60.83, up 2.2% on the day.

Robert Quinn, of Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities, writes: "Commitment of Traders encapsulating flows towards the end of September exhibited a large bearish turn in speculative positioning. Specifically, Managed Money, Other, and Non-Reportable net sold a combined $1.6bn from September 22nd - 29th, the largest weekly amount since February. Liquidation ($800mm) and new shorts ($800mm) contributed."

The estimate covers speculative positioning, rather than physical silver sales.

Half the selling closed bullish positions, while half established new bearish bets.

Image: Silver price in US dollars - three month chart Stronger industrial indicators have not overcome financial pressure Quinn's evidence for improving industrial prospects comes from equity-market indicators linked to sectors that use silver.

He writes: "Through early October, barometers for certain structural demand drivers improved. Over September 29th - October 7th, GS's Data Center and Solar equity baskets rose 4.2% and 2.4% respectively. Both maintained positive correlation with Managed Money gross long changes during the past 6 months."

These are equity-market indicators, rather than measurements of silver consumption.

During the same period, the financial conditions facing precious metals moved in the opposite direction.

Quinn writes: "However macroeconomic headwinds also proved formidable. Throughout the same time frame, US real rates edged higher and the Dollar increased (0.8%). Historically, stronger Dollar and real rate environments coincided with Managed Money gross long unwinds."

Higher inflation-adjusted yields increase the attraction of interest-bearing assets relative to silver, while a stronger Dollar raises the metal's cost for buyers using other currencies.

Quinn also identifies weakness in derivatives sentiment: "Thus in the end, the Silver price remained stuck with negative flows arguably persisting. Silver price fell 1.4%. Discretionary sentiment soured; consider normalized 25 delta put-call skew richened to the top 2 year decile. CTA selling also manifested, according to GS Futures Strategists' framework."

The options measure indicates stronger relative demand for downside protection, while Goldman's framework points to selling by systematic futures strategies.

UBS's recovery target faces an investment-demand test UBS's nearer forecast is $70 by December 2026, with further appreciation envisaged during 2027.

UBS has previously argued that higher gold prices and tighter physical conditions could support silver's recovery.

UBS said: "Silver, meanwhile, should benefit from higher gold prices and tighter near-term fundamentals."

More recent CFTC futures data for 6 October show managed-money investors still net long silver, but with that balance edging lower from the preceding week.

These futures-only figures cover a narrower group than Goldman's combined-category estimate.

Goldman sees a possible easing of one obstacle to recovery, rather than confirming that the selling has ended.

Quinn writes: "While acknowledging uncertainty over Middle East developments, note GS FX Research believes one pillar of Silver resistance, namely Dollar upside, could stall. Given stretched positioning on several pairs and recent Fed communication, the team is cautious on near-term Dollar prospects."

Silver price prediction, news FAQ What is UBS's silver forecast?

UBS forecasts $70 an ounce by December 2026 and $80 by September 2027.

Has Goldman Sachs issued an $80 silver target?

No. The $80 forecast belongs to UBS. Goldman's report analyses positioning and market pressures.

Was the $1.6bn selling a prediction?

No. Goldman estimates it occurred across the specified speculative categories during 22-29 September.

Yesterday, I wrote: “Silver follows stocks more closely than gold does, and the reason is industry.”

On Thursday, the link worked to the downside: the Nasdaq fell 1.25 percent, and silver fell while gold rose. Today, it works to the upside: stock futures and copper are higher, and silver is rising faster than gold. I also wrote that silver “amplifies gold’s moves in both directions,” and today it’s repeating Thursday’s move in the other direction.

In my view, silver’s outperformance today says more about stocks and copper than about the precious metals. It’s the industrial half of silver reacting to a better morning for risk assets.

Gold: A Bounce With Clear Drivers On Thursday, oil rose 3.3 percent, but the 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5.23 percent after a well-received 30-year bond auction, and gold rose $16.30. That’s a modest gain for a day with lower yields and a war headline in the morning.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts The USD Index is little changed this morning, pausing near its highest levels since April 2025. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said another hike is needed to return inflation to 2 percent, and markets price a 17 percent chance of a hike on October 28 and an 83 percent chance by December.

The Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday at 5.618 percent, the highest yield at a 30-year auction since August 2000, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54, above the 2.41 average of the previous six auctions. After Wednesday’s 10-year auction at 5.300 percent, that’s two days in a row of investors lining up for yields that gold doesn’t pay, and the lower yields that followed are part of today’s bounce.

Technically, since the consolidation is taking place above the previous 2026 highs, the breakout is fully verified, and the breather’s implications are bullish. The USD Index is simply getting ready for another powerful wave up.

If we are to view the current consolidation as a flag pattern, then the move that follows it is likely to be similar to the one that preceded it. The preceding rally took the USDX from about 99 to about 102, so a repeat of that could take the USDX to about 105 – that would be quite an event for the precious metals market – a very bearish one.

Where This Leaves Us Trump ruled out strikes on Iran before the midterms, oil pulled back, the dollar paused, and gold and silver bounced, with silver outpacing gold as stocks and copper rose. The S&P 500 closed below its August high on Thursday, which invalidated Tuesday’s breakout, and gold remains below the highs of its verification rebound.

Today’s bounce is yesterday’s decline in reverse, driven by the same links. The trend didn’t reverse with it.

Thank you for reading today’s analysis – I appreciate that you took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If you’d like to get more (and extra details not available to 99% investors), I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses – sign up for our free gold newsletter now.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

Przemysław K. Radomski, CFA

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is trading sharply lower Thursday after failing to hold the long-term 50% level at $60.835. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart.

The move through last Friday’s low at $59.69 signals a resumption of the downtrend. A trade through the main top at $67.55 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is down. A trade through the minor top at $62.09 will turn the minor trend up.

The first resistance is $60.835, followed by $61.04 and the minor top at $62.09. The 50-day moving average at $64.21 remains well overhead.

The break below $59.69 puts the swing bottoms at $56.56 and $54.78 in play. The long-term value area extends from $60.835 down to the 61.8% retracement level at $46.48.

What to Watch The 30-year auction is the next test for silver. The Fed has left a December hike in the price, the dollar is close to Monday’s high and the 10-year remains near a 24-year high. Sellers have control going into the sale.

Spot silver reached $60.61 early Thursday, then broke below $59.69 on the way to $58.50. The bias is to the downside while the main trend and minor trend are down, price remains below the long-term midpoint and the market trades under the 50-day moving average. The next swing bottom is $56.56.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

TL;DR: Deutsche Bank sees Silver’s physical deficit narrowing toward a possible 2027 surplus as solar demand intensity falls and vault inventories rebuild, but with Silver trading around 60.80, the next move still hinges on the near-term technical fight between 58.68 support and 62.30 resistance—and on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.

Why This Matters Silver was trading around 60.80 in early Wednesday trade, well below the 71.16 late-August high and dramatically off levels above 120 seen earlier this year. The medium-term physical backdrop is also becoming less supportive, which raises a useful distinction for traders: a narrowing deficit is a slow-moving structural story that can cap how far a future rally extends, but it says little about which way Silver moves in the next session. That’s decided by the technical levels in play right now, and by how markets react to this week’s Fed signals.

Physical Tightness Is Easing, Deutsche Says Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Ghali argues that the market deficit is narrowing as inventories rebuild and demand weakens in several important areas, raising the possibility that the physical market could move into surplus in 2027.

The Deutsche report was published on October 2, with Ghali discussing the findings in an interview with BNN Bloomberg. London commercial vault holdings had risen to more than 914 million ounces by the end of August, according to the Deutsche analysis. More than 300 million ounces were considered freely available, around 70% above October 2025 levels and the highest since November 2024. CME and Shanghai inventories have also increased. Ghali attributes the rebuilding to a combination of recycling, metal returning from private vaults and weaker demand.

Solar Demand Is Doing Much of the Work The more important shift appears to be on the demand side. Deutsche estimates that global silver use in solar has fallen by more than 20%, including roughly one-third in China, while the amount of silver used per solar cell has declined around 17%.

That reduction in silver intensity has changed the economics of the sector. Silver’s share of solar-module costs had risen above 30% earlier this year but has since fallen back to around 14%. Indian imports are also running roughly 25% below year-ago levels, although August data indicated some recovery.

For Ghali, the result is that peak physical scarcity is now “clearly in the rear-view mirror.” Deutsche sees the current deficit shrinking and believes a physical surplus is possible next year. More available metal should also reduce the probability of the extreme squeezes that contributed to silver’s earlier volatility.

That conclusion still needs qualification. Neither the Deutsche material nor the media coverage provides a quantified 2027 surplus estimate, while China’s persistent price premium remains difficult to reconcile with an uncomplicated normalization story. The possibility that investment funds release additional metal in a prolonged Fed hiking cycle is also conditional rather than assured.

A Narrower Deficit Limits Upside, But It Is Not a Collapse Call The medium-term implication is less about outright bearishness than about a smaller scarcity premium. Deutsche expects silver to average around $70 by Q2 2027, still materially above current spot levels. The bank is therefore not arguing that the metal must fall substantially from here. Rather, the physical market appears better supplied than during the most acute phase of last year’s squeeze, potentially limiting the scope for another scarcity-driven surge.

That distinction matters. The physical balance is a slow-moving driver. It can influence how far a move ultimately extends, but it does not decide whether silver rises or falls in the next session.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Silver 62.30 Keeps Risks Tilted to the Downside The technical bias remains on the downside as long as 62.30 resistance holds. Silver’s decline from 71.16 still fits a three-wave corrective structure, with the first leg falling to 62.30, a rebound to 67.54, and the latest leg extending to 59.66 last week. That keeps the broader sequence of lower highs intact and leaves the burden on buyers to reclaim former support.

The first hurdle is the falling 4H 55 EMA around 61.76, but the more important level is 62.30, which has turned from support into resistance. As long as silver remains below there, another test of 59.66 remains the favored scenario. A decisive break above 62.30 would be the first meaningful sign that the decline from 71.16 may have completed, while a daily close above the 55 EMA near 63.92 would provide stronger medium-term confirmation.

58.68 Is the Key Downside Test A break below 59.66 would expose 58.68, the 100% projection of the 71.16 to 62.30 decline measured from 67.54. That is the next important test of whether the current correction is merely extending or turning into a deeper bearish move.

A firm break of 58.68 would strengthen the downside case and shift focus to 53.21, the 161.8% projection target, which sits below the 54.78 July low. Until 62.30 is reclaimed, the technical structure therefore continues to favor downside risk over a sustained recovery.

FOMC Minutes Matter More for the Next Session The next move is therefore more likely to be decided by US rates and Fed expectations than by the slower-moving physical balance.

The FOMC minutes are due at 2:00pm ET on Wednesday, while Fed commentary and US yields remain important as markets continue to price a December hike. With yields still near multi-decade highs, another rise in rates would keep pressure on silver, while a softer rates reaction could give the metal room to challenge 62.30.

The medium-term physical story is becoming less supportive. But in the near term, the technical decision remains much simpler: 62.30 on the upside and 58.68 on the downside.

Key Takeaways Deutsche Bank sees Silver’s physical deficit narrowing toward a possible 2027 surplus, driven mainly by a roughly 20% drop in solar demand and rebuilding vault inventories above 914 million ounces. Deutsche still expects Silver to average around $70 by Q2 2027—this is a smaller-scarcity-premium call, not a bearish collapse thesis. The near-term technical bias stays bearish while 62.30 resistance holds, with 59.66 the favored next test. A break below 58.68 would open the door to 53.21, below the July low at 54.78; a break above 62.30 (confirmed by a close above the 63.92 EMA) would be the first sign the decline from 71.16 has completed. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and US yield reaction are likely to matter more for Silver’s next move than the slower-moving physical deficit story.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades under pressure on Monday, falling 0.79% on the day to around $65.70 at the time of writing. The white metal is feeling the impact of the strong US employment report, which has revived expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and supports the US Dollar (USD).

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday showed that the US economy added 162K jobs in August, well above the market consensus of 56K. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations, while annual Average Hourly Earnings growth eased slightly to 3.1% from 3.2% previously.

These figures reinforce the view that the US labor market remains strong enough to allow the Fed to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. Inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices are also contributing to expectations of a potential interest rate hike as soon as the central bank's next meeting.

The prospect of higher US interest rates is a negative factor for Silver, which does not offer any yield. At the same time, it provides support to the US Dollar, making the precious metal more expensive for investors using other currencies.

However, expectations of monetary tightening remain dependent on incoming data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he would favor keeping interest rates unchanged if upcoming indicators confirmed that inflationary pressures were easing.

Investors' attention therefore turns to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These releases should provide fresh clues about the inflation trajectory and could play a key role in shaping expectations for the Fed's next policy decision.

Meanwhile, escalating tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in financial markets. US forces struck three Iranian Oil tankers on Saturday, while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had targeted six vessels in retaliation.

The exchange of attacks is fueling concerns over the security of shipping through the strategic waterway and the risk of prolonged disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East. This backdrop supports energy prices and reinforces inflation risks, potentially keeping expectations of restrictive Fed monetary policy elevated.

Geopolitical tensions could nevertheless limit Silver's downside by simultaneously fueling demand for safe-haven assets. The white metal therefore remains caught between potential support from defensive flows and pressure from higher US interest rate expectations and a stronger US Dollar.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates its advance on Friday and trades around $69.75 at the time of writing, up 2.41% on the day. The white metal reaches its highest level in two months and is on track for a weekly gain of more than 7%, mainly supported by persistent weakness in the US Dollar (USD).

The main catalyst behind Silver’s rally this week is the United States (US) Department of the Treasury’s surprise announcement of its debt buyback program. The Treasury plans to at least double its purchases of longer-dated government securities in an effort to contain borrowing costs. The decision initially triggered a sharp decline in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar, mechanically increasing the appeal of Dollar-denominated precious metals.

US Treasury yields have since recovered some of their losses, but the rebound has not been enough to halt Silver’s advance. Investors appear more concerned about the longer-term implications of US fiscal policy, including rising government debt, large budget deficits and the possibility that authorities may favor looser financial conditions at the expense of the US currency.

Commerzbank argues that the Treasury’s announcement suggests that US authorities may prefer a weaker Dollar rather than accepting persistently higher long-term interest rates. This perception adds a headwind for the Greenback and continues to support Silver.

The monetary policy outlook provides additional support. Recent US employment and inflation data have reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Lower interest rates tend to benefit Silver, which offers no yield, while potentially adding further pressure on the US Dollar.

Investors now turn their attention to the preliminary August S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs). The market consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to ease slightly to 53.8 from 53.9 in July, while the Services PMI is forecast to decline to 54 from 54.6. Weaker-than-expected figures could increase pressure on the US Dollar and provide further support to Silver.

However, inflation risks remain present. Rising Oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East could keep US inflation elevated and reignite speculation about a Fed rate rise, bolstering the USD. A sustained rebound in US Treasury yields could also become a headwind for precious metals following their strong recent gains.

XAG/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $69.83, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the upward-sloping trend-line support around $68.03 and comfortably above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $66.02 and the 200-period SMA at $65.56. The clustering of underlying levels at $67.75 and $66.60 reinforces a constructive structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70.05 hints at mildly overbought conditions that could slow the advance rather than immediately reverse it.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the psychological $70.00 handle, where a sustained break would open the way for further gains in the short term. On the downside, the first meaningful support emerges at the reclaimed trend-line zone near $68.03, followed by horizontal support at $67.75 and $66.60, with the 100-period SMA at $66.02 and the 200-period SMA at $65.56 providing deeper trend support if corrective pressure extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver (XAG/USD) stabilizes around $63.45 on Wednesday, up 0.16% on the day at the time of writing. The white metal is attempting to regain its footing after hitting an intraday low of $62.19, initially extending the pullback that followed Tuesday’s rejection from the $66.50 area.

Silver remains under pressure in a cautious market environment as investors monitor the deteriorating situation in the Middle East. The Memorandum of Understanding between the United States (US) and Iran expired on Monday, while US President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday that no talks with Tehran are currently taking place.

Disruptions to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are also keeping tensions elevated in the energy market, reinforcing concerns about the conflict's inflationary consequences. This prospect could complicate the task of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and limit its room to tighten monetary policy.

Investors now await the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) July meeting, due on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, for fresh clues about the path of US interest rates.

Since that meeting, weaker-than-expected labor market and inflation data have reduced expectations of a September rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now price in only a 32% chance of an increase at the next meeting. This shift helps limit pressure on precious metals, which tend to benefit from expectations of less restrictive monetary policy.

At the same time, inflation risks stemming from the energy shock continue to support the possibility of further monetary tightening over the longer term. US Treasury yields therefore remain elevated despite a modest decline on Wednesday, limiting the appeal of non-yielding Silver.

The release of the Fed Minutes could therefore provide the next catalyst for Silver as markets assess the balance between softer US economic data, inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict and the future path of interest rates.

XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $63.46, retaining a capped near-term tone as it holds beneath the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $64.74 and the 200-period SMA at $64.65. The proximity of the immediate horizontal barrier at $63.50 reinforces overhead supply just above spot, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.51 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting that recovery attempts could remain limited for now.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at $63.50, ahead of the 200-hour SMA at $64.65 and the 100-hour SMA at $64.74, with a stronger hurdle emerging at the prior horizontal cap near $66.80. On the downside, first support appears at $62.60, with a deeper cushion seen at $61.00, where buyers would be expected to show more interest if the current pullback extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver has experienced a wild ride in 2026, but The Silver Institute President and CEO Michael DiRienzo says investors shouldn’t let the volatility obscure a much bigger story: the underlying silver market remains remarkably strong.

DiRienzo joined Money Metals podcast host Mike Maharrey to discuss silver’s dramatic price swings, persistent supply deficits, industrial demand, solar energy, artificial intelligence, investment flows, and the metal’s expanding role in medicine.

His central message was straightforward. Silver is no longer the $13 or $15 metal investors remember from less than a decade ago. In DiRienzo’s view, the market has established substantially higher floors because silver is increasingly being valued for both its industrial utility and its investment potential.

From $121 Silver back to $65Silver surged to roughly $121 an ounce on January 29, 2026, before falling sharply alongside gold. By the morning of Maharrey’s interview with DiRienzo, silver was trading around $65 per ounce.

DiRienzo said the late-February outbreak of war in Iran put additional pressure on precious metals. Interestingly, he noted that gold and silver have tended to respond positively to announcements involving ceasefires or the reopening of the straits, suggesting the conflict has been weighing on the precious metals complex rather than providing the traditional geopolitical boost investors might expect.

But underneath the geopolitical turmoil, DiRienzo sees strong fundamentals.

He noted that just two years ago, predicting an average 2026 silver price above $72 to $75 per ounce would have sounded extraordinary. Yet the market has reached precisely that neighborhood this year.

Mining companies have also benefited substantially from higher prices. DiRienzo said second-quarter figures being reported by mining companies were broadly positive, including among Silver Institute members producing silver both as a primary product and as a byproduct.

Industrial demand remains a powerful forceIndustrial demand remains one of the most important pillars supporting silver.

The Silver Institute expects a small decline in industrial demand this year, driven in part by reduced silver consumption in photovoltaics. With silver prices elevated, solar manufacturers have an obvious incentive to reduce the amount of silver they use or substitute another material.

Doing so, however, isn't simple.

Silver has the highest electrical conductivity of any metal, and the process of screen-printing silver paste onto solar cells is already mature and highly efficient. Alternative materials and metallization technologies still face hurdles before they can compete with silver at scale.

Copper metallization exists, for example, but DiRienzo said it has yet to scale sufficiently to replace silver across the solar industry. For solar farms designed to operate for 25 years, manufacturers also have to consider silver's reliability, durability, and stability rather than simply its upfront cost.

Solar’s Silver appetite has explodedThe scale of silver consumption in solar has changed dramatically over the past decade.

DiRienzo said solar represented about 11% of total silver industrial demand in 2014. By 2024, its share had climbed to just under 30%, marking the peak year for silver consumption in solar to date.

The industry is now attempting to engineer some silver out of its cells as prices rise. But manufacturers were already trying to reduce silver consumption when the metal traded for only $13 per ounce.

As DiRienzo explained, manufacturers relentlessly pursue even tiny savings. Reducing costs by two, three, or four cents per solar cell can matter when production is measured in enormous volumes.

That means efforts to thrift silver will continue. But DiRienzo doesn't foresee silver disappearing from photovoltaics the way photographic demand largely disappeared with the transition to digital photography.

AI could become another major Silver demand driverArtificial intelligence represents another potentially significant source of future silver demand.

The AI boom requires an enormous physical infrastructure of data centers filled with electrical contacts, wiring, and other components that can use silver.

DiRienzo said data centers have grown by more than 6,000% in just three years. The Silver Institute has already examined silver's role in AI data centers and other emerging technologies in a report on silver as a “next generation metal.”

The precise amount of silver being consumed by AI infrastructure remains difficult to quantify. DiRienzo acknowledged that the Institute is hearing about increased consumption but doesn't yet have firm numbers.

The direction, however, appears clear to him. With AI infrastructure still in its infancy and data-center installations expanding around the world, DiRienzo expects silver demand from this sector to increase.

Higher Gold prices are also affecting jewelrySilver may also be benefiting indirectly from gold's elevated price.

DiRienzo pointed to examples of jewelry made primarily from silver and then plated with gold, providing the appearance of gold while using silver as the underlying metal.

Jewelry demand remains highly price-sensitive because it is fundamentally a discretionary purchase. DiRienzo also highlighted an interesting demographic trend: more women between the ages of 24 and 30 are buying silver jewelry globally.

The Silver Institute expects overall silver jewelry demand this year to remain relatively consistent with last year's level.

Higher prices can't quickly produce more SilverThe supply side of the market presents a very different challenge.

A silver miner can't simply flip a switch and dramatically increase production because prices have risen. DiRienzo noted that some of the mining taking place today traces back to plans made 10 years ago, in 2016.

Mining companies are spending more on exploration, but DiRienzo said they aren't doing so recklessly. Much of the activity appears concentrated around existing projects as companies search for additional or previously unidentified veins.

That means substantially higher silver prices aren't necessarily going to unleash a flood of new supply anytime soon.

Mine production increased about 3% in 2025, but the Silver Institute expects production to decline 0.3% in 2026.

A Sixth consecutive Silver market deficitThe supply constraint becomes particularly important when considered alongside persistent demand.

The Silver Institute expects the silver market to record its sixth consecutive annual structural deficit in 2026. DiRienzo estimated the shortfall at roughly 46 million to 50 million ounces, although it could become larger if demand strengthens.

Recycling will help. The Institute expects recycled silver supply to increase by roughly 7% this year.

It still won't be enough.

Even after incorporating recycling into total supply, DiRienzo expects demand to exceed supply again in 2026.

A market deficit doesn't mean the world has literally run out of silver. It means annual demand is exceeding annual newly available supply, forcing the market to draw on above-ground inventories.

And those inventories aren't necessarily as freely available as headline figures might suggest.

The Silver sitting in vaults isn't necessarily availableDiRienzo used London inventories to illustrate the problem.Suppose London Bullion Market Association vaults contain approximately 750 million ounces of silver. That sounds like an enormous stockpile.

But DiRienzo estimated that roughly 75% of that silver is already allocated to exchange-traded products around the world.

That leaves a much smaller pool of readily available metal — and accessing that remaining “free float” can be extremely price sensitive.

The consequences became apparent when tariff concerns caused silver to move from London and elsewhere into New York ahead of the April 2, 2025, “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.

Precious metals ultimately weren't included in the tariffs, but the episode demonstrated how quickly physical metal can move when market participants anticipate disruptions.

Maharrey pointed to another example closer to home: Money Metals was shipping 1,000-ounce silver bars to India during the tight market around Diwali.

DiRienzo recalled the episode and noted that silver lease rates subsequently surged as the market became extremely tight.

Could similar silver squeezes happen again?

“Absolutely,” DiRienzo said. “No question about it.”

Silver investment demand could strengthenThe Silver Institute also expects stronger retail investment demand for physical silver.

DiRienzo said demand for silver coins and bars could increase approximately 7% in 2026, despite challenges involving Indian import duties. India has been an especially strong market for silver bars and coins over the past several years.

Exchange-traded products tell another part of the investment story.

Silver ETPs recorded net inflows of approximately 270 million ounces in 2025. The outbreak of war subsequently contributed to liquidations in gold and silver ETPs, with DiRienzo saying silver had experienced outflows of roughly 6% this year.

He added that the Silver Institute was hearing that investment activity was beginning to pick up again.

Medicine shows another side of SilverWhen Maharrey asked DiRienzo to name one of silver's lesser-known applications that he finds particularly interesting, DiRienzo pointed to health and medicine.

Silver's antibacterial properties give it uses throughout healthcare environments. DiRienzo cited silver coatings in operating rooms and on operating tables and instruments, along with silver incorporated into hospital drapes and used alongside cleaning agents.

He also highlighted emerging nanotechnology. The Silver Institute's August edition of Silver News was set to examine how nanosilver can help doctors administer the correct drug dosage.

Silver's antibacterial properties extend beyond hospitals. DiRienzo also cited water purification, pools, and efforts to combat outbreaks of Legionnaires' disease. In these applications, silver can help prevent infection and promote healing.

These applications may represent relatively small amounts of silver compared with solar panels, electronics, or investment products, but they demonstrate just how broad the metal's usefulness has become.

From $15 to more than $70Perhaps the most striking way to understand today's silver market is simply to look backward.

During the interview, DiRienzo opened the World Silver Survey and read off a series of historical average prices.

Silver averaged $17.05 per ounce in 2017. It subsequently averaged $15.71, followed by $16.21 in 2019. By 2023, the average had risen to $23.35, followed by $28.27 in 2024 and approximately $40 in 2025.

In 2026, DiRienzo said the market is talking about an average above $70 per ounce.

That longer-term perspective matters after silver's retreat from its January peak.

At around $65 an ounce during the interview, silver was dramatically below its $121 high. But Maharrey emphasized that it wasn't very long ago that investors were accustomed to silver trading for $13, $14, or $15.

DiRienzo believes the difference reflects a fundamental change in the market.

“We think new floors have been set in the market,” he said. Silver, in his assessment, is now trading on the strength of both its industrial applications and its investment appeal.

A tight market with powerful long-term driversSilver's 2026 correction may dominate short-term investor psychology, but the fundamentals DiRienzo described point toward a much larger story.

The market is heading toward a sixth consecutive structural deficit. Mine production is expected to decline slightly. Recycling is increasing, but not enough to close the gap. Physical investment demand could rise 7%. Solar still consumes enormous amounts of silver despite ongoing thrift efforts. AI infrastructure presents another rapidly growing source of potential demand.

Meanwhile, much of the silver sitting above ground isn't necessarily freely available to the market.

DiRienzo believes 2026 is shaping up to be a remarkable year for the metal. He expects the annual average silver price to set a record, and he sees evidence that the market has established price floors far above those of the previous decade.

Silver may still be volatile. But in DiRienzo's view, today's silver market is fundamentally different from the one investors knew when the metal traded in the teens.

And those fundamentals — industrial demand on one side and investment demand on the other — could continue defining the silver market long after the geopolitical turbulence of 2026 has passed.

Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates its advance on Wednesday and trades around $66.00 at the time of writing, up 2.18% on the day. The white metal benefits from a decline in the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields following the release of the latest United States (US) inflation data, while geopolitical uncertainty continues to support safe-haven demand.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% MoM in July after falling 0.4% in June, while the annual rate eased to 3.4% from 3.5%. Both figures come in line with market expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, also matching forecasts.

The market reaction favors Silver. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, falls slightly following the release. US Treasury yields also decline, with the 2-year yield falling by around four basis points to trade near 4.18%.

Lower bond yields tend to support non-yielding precious metals such as Silver by reducing their opportunity cost. At the same time, a weaker US Dollar makes the Dollar-denominated metal cheaper for investors using other currencies.

The inflation figures, however, do not radically alter the monetary policy outlook. With headline inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target and elevated Oil prices keeping upside inflation risks alive, investors continue to expect monetary policy to remain restrictive. Nevertheless, the chance of a September rate hike falls to around 38% from 44% before the release, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The geopolitical backdrop provides additional support to Silver. According to Reuters, a senior Iranian source says that no discussions are currently taking place over an extension of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States. The source also claims that Washington violated the interim agreement 48 hours after it was reached before withdrawing from it a few days later.

These tensions maintain uncertainty over a lasting normalization of the situation in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting elevated Oil prices remain a potential source of inflationary pressure while simultaneously supporting demand for safe-haven assets. This combination of a slightly weaker US Dollar, lower US Treasury yields and persistent geopolitical risk allows Silver to maintain strong bullish momentum on Wednesday.

XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.03, retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $64.04 and the 200-hour SMA at $61.68. The metal also remains above an upwards-sloping trend-line support, now coming in around $65.57, which reinforces a constructive structure after the latest advance. Momentum is positive but not extreme, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 59, suggesting steady buying interest without yet reaching overbought territory.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the trend-line near $65.57, ahead of a deeper cushion at the 100-hour SMA around $64.04 and the 200-hour SMA at $61.68. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier at $66.80; a sustained break above this cap would open the way for further gains, while failure to clear it could trigger consolidation back toward the nearby trend-line support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to extend its gains on Monday following last week’s strong breakout as traders assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook amid risks on both sides of its dual mandate. The United States (US) labour market is showing signs of weakness, while inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $64, with the $65 psychological mark acting as a firm ceiling.

The white metal climbed to its highest level since June 23 last week after weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data prompted traders to scale back expectations for a September Fed rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike now stands below 50%.

Meanwhile, uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz keeps energy-driven inflation risks in focus, even as Iran and Oman say they are close to finalising an agreement.

Traders now await Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could provide the next major catalyst and determine whether Silver breaks above $65 or loses momentum. A softer-than-expected reading could further reduce Fed rate hike bets and support the non-yielding metal. Conversely, hotter inflation could revive expectations for a rate increase.

Technical analysis

XAG/USD is in recovery mode after forming a double-bottom pattern near the $55 region and reclaiming the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The latest leg higher pushed Silver toward $65, a level that previously acted as support but has now turned into resistance, capping immediate upside attempts.

Momentum indicators support the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart holds around 61, while the positive and expanding Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggests the recovery is gaining strength. A decisive daily close above $65 would expose the 100-day SMA near $69, with the $75 level emerging as the next major hurdle.

On the downside, the 50-day SMA near $62 offers initial support, followed by the 21-day SMA around $59. A break below the latter would weaken the recovery and bring the $55 double-bottom region back into focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is edging lower Thursday after hitting its highest level since July 6 at $62.91. At first, the breakout over the 50-day moving average at $62.36 suggested the buying was getting stronger. However, the sudden reversal and break back under the 50-day moving average suggest the move may have been a bull trap.

The 50-day moving average, today’s intraday high at $62.91 and the July 6 swing top at $63.28 are now resistance levels.

The first downside target is the long-term 50% level at $60.835. If a test of this level fails to bring in buyers, look for a potential break into the retracement zone at $58.84 to $57.89.

Since the swing chart trend indicator turned up Wednesday, traders may have shifted into buy-the-dip mode. The first area they are likely to defend is $60.835, followed by $58.84 to $57.89. They are likely to remain in this mode until the swing bottom at $56.64 is violated.

A sustained move over the intraday high at $62.91 could trigger a test of $63.28. Taking out this swing top would reaffirm the uptrend and put the 200-day moving average at $71.01 on the radar.

What to Watch Silver ran hard for two sessions on lower oil, a falling dollar and shrinking rate-hike odds. All three stalled Thursday and the metal is pulling back from the overnight high. The rally was a macro relief trade and macro relief trades need the relief to continue. Friday’s payrolls is the catalyst. Soft hiring and weaker wages keep the dollar under pressure and give silver room to hold above the breakout. Firm wages and solid hiring put the September trade back together and the pullback from $62.91 has further to go.

The breakout above the 50-day moving average failed to hold and that is a concern. Buyers who shifted into buy-the-dip mode after Wednesday’s trend change have to defend the first support area or the rally loses credibility fast. A strong jobs number on top of a failed breakout gives sellers everything they need.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a mildly positive tone near $59.50 per troy ounce on Tuesday, up 2% for the day, but falling from recent highs and leaving the metal locked in a tight range. Fading geopolitical tension weighs on safe-haven demand, while a softer United States (US) labor market reading limits the downside by keeping the Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook uncertain.

Al Arabiya reported that an announcement regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected soon. Al Hadath suggested arrangements for a full reopening could be confirmed within hours. None of the reports have been officially verified, but they have already triggered a sharp unwind of the risk premium built into commodity markets during the conflict.

For Silver, the impact cuts both ways. The metal has benefited from defensive flows during the escalation, and a confirmed reopening of the waterway would remove that support. At the same time, cheaper energy and improved global trade conditions favor industrial activity. With roughly half of Silver demand tied to industrial applications, a durable easing of supply disruptions supports the medium-term consumption outlook.

On the macroeconomic front, the JOLTS report showed vacancies falling to 7.359 million in June from the revised 7.537 million and below the 7.4 million forecast. The reading points to continued cooling in labor demand and tempers the message delivered by Monday's strong ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which climbed to 55.6. Softer labor demand trims the odds of further Fed tightening, easing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

The ADP Employment Change is expected to slow to 70K in July from 98K, ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report. A run of soft prints would revive expectations that the Fed has reached the end of its tightening cycle, weakening the US Dollar and clearing the path for precious metals.

Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $59.40. The metal holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.37 and the 100-period SMA at $57.93, keeping a constructive bullish tone while it consolidates just under nearby resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 sits in positive territory, suggesting firm upside momentum but still shy of overbought conditions.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at $59.49, ahead of the more notable horizontal barrier at $60.00. On the downside, immediate support emerges at $59.14, followed by $58.99, with the clustered moving average floor around the 20-period SMA at $58.37 and the 100-period SMA at $57.93 expected to underpin the broader bullish bias on deeper pullbacks.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver (XAG/USD) reverses part of its earlier gains on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after opening the week with a bearish gap following a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran.

At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $58.34, up 0.37% on the day, after briefly climbing above $60 earlier during the Asian trading session.

XAG/USD has traded largely within a $55.00-$62.00 range in recent weeks, with hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations capping upside attempts.

Could Wednesday’s Fed interest-rate decision trigger Silver’s next directional move?The US central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, although a surprise hike cannot be ruled out. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders price in around a 35% chance of an immediate increase.

A surprise rate hike would likely be the most bearish outcome for Silver. Higher interest rates would strengthen the US Dollar and push US Treasury yields higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver. Such an outcome could trigger a break below the lower end of its recent range at $55.

A hawkish hold could also put the $55 support level at risk if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasises persistent inflation concerns and signals that a rate hike later this year remains likely.

On the other hand, a dovish hold could provide relief for Silver, although it is not the base-case scenario. If the Fed adopts a less hawkish tone than markets expect, traders could scale back rate-hike bets, increasing the chances of a recovery above $62.

Technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAG/USD retains a bearish bias despite showing signs of stabilization. Buyers are struggling near the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.75.

Momentum shows tentative improvement, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers toward the mid-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory, hinting that selling pressure is losing intensity rather than that a bullish reversal is underway.

The 21-day SMA at $58.75 offers immediate resistance, followed by $62, the upper boundary of the recent range. A decisive break above this level could expose the 50-day SMA at $65, followed by the 100-day SMA at $70.94.

On the downside, $55 provides initial support. A daily close below this level could open the door toward the psychological $50 mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1.35% to near $61.00 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The white metal extends its correction as oil prices see some buying interest, following headlines that Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost one-fifth of global energy supply.

Iran’s attack on commercial ships has renewed fears of energy supply disruption, whose impact on global inflation has already been witnessed by market participants in the past few months amid the war between the United States (US)-Israel and Iran.

The Silver price underperformed during the Middle East war, as the increase in inflationary pressures due to rising energy prices prompted fears of interest rate hikes by global central banks.

Higher interest rates bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Going forward, the major trigger for the Silver price will be the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting on Wednesday. Investors will pay close attention to FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

In the June policy meeting, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and signaled that the central bank will refrain from delivering forward-looking remarks on policy rates at the current policy juncture.

Silver technical analysis

XAG/USD trades lower at around $61.50, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $63.35. The downside tone is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 41, which suggests persistent but not extreme selling pressure as rebounds continue to be capped by the nearby EMA barrier.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at $63.35, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery phase. Looking down, the psychological level of $60.00 will be the key support zone; below that, the Silver price could revisit the seven-month low of $55.63.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.