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	Saved 2026-09-18 10:59 1mo ago Published 2026-09-18 06:42 1mo ago	WPIC čeká v roce 2026 přebytek na trhu s platinou WPIC snížil odhad trhu s platinou na rok 2026 z deficitu 297 000 uncí na přebytek 265 000 uncí. I tak zůstává trh ve tříletém deficitu a zásoby pokrývají jen asi 3,4 měsíce poptávky. PLATINUM Platina	FMP Forex News	86
Original source text The chairman of the Fed, Kevin Warsh has said that inflation is still too high, and he pointed to the U.S.-Iran war as a significant catalyst. The Fed’s hawkish posture places the Platinum Group Metals (PGM) complex under pressure as it increases the opportunity cost of holding them while the dollar strengthens. Metals in the PGM complex include platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and osmium. And platinum price is more likely to fall against the U.S. dollar when the Fed is hawkish. WPIC Surplus Revision Masks a Dangerously Thin Inventory Buffer A look at platinum’s fundamental picture reveals an interesting demand & supply narrative. On September 9, 2026, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) did a big u-turn on its 2026 platinum supply forecast, changing its previous expectation of a 297,000-ounce deficit to a 265,000-ounce surplus. That reversal measures up to a total of 562,000 ounces. When you analyze this move at the surface level, it looks very bearish, as it represents a sudden shift from deficit to oversupply, which usually leaves sellers chasing buyers and crashing the price of a commodity in the process. However, things are not that straightforward. The WPIC’s change of heart was as a result of diminishing platinum investments, not higher mining output. Let me explain: according to a WPIC report, there was a drop of 534,000 ounces in platinum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) holdings, as investors were massively selling their shares in the platinum ETF. There was a further reduction in exchange stocks by 65,000 ounces, which led to an overall decline of 599,000 ounces in measured platinum investment demand. These massive investment outflows, which force funds to sell physical platinum blocks held in their vaults and directly translate to a commodity supply shock, were what pushed the WPIC to change their stance on expected 2026 supply. A 265,000-Ounce Surplus Barely Dents a Three-Year Deficit Now, if we pay attention to the bigger picture, we will see that this forecasted supply shock won’t make much of an impact afterall, as there is a large deficit in the market to absorb it. WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond said by the end of 2026, global platinum inventories will only be able to cover about 3.4 months of demand, even after the ETF supply outflows hit the market. This projection points to a serious global deficit of platinum right now that has been going on for three consecutive years. The measure shortfall in 2025 alone was 1.4 million ounces and a 265,000-ounce surplus will only fill about 8% of the stockpile depleted between 2022 and 2025. Long story short, not much of a supply shock can be expected when the WPIC’s projected surplus hits the market. Which means that the current market deficit will still very much be in play, and will support the bull case for platinum. South Africa’s Structural Decline Is Not Reversible on Any Short Timeline Another key factor that determines what happens to platinum’s price is whether the global mining output of the metal is able to meet demand or not. South Africa is home to about 91% of the world’s Platinum Group Metals (PGM) reserves, however, the country’s output has continuously declined over time. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, South Africa’s PGM output declined by an estimated 9% between 2024 and 2025. This decline is mostly as a result of old infrastructure, rising operational costs, and unreliable electricity supply. To make matters worse, the country’s utility authority, Eskom, has increased mining tariffs by around 60% in the last 5 years, with an April 2026 tariff bump of 8.76%, according to NERSA filings. The problem these electricity costs bring is that once they are deducted from the current prices of platinum, the margins left are significantly smaller. Mining CEOs Warn the Output Slide Has Years Left to Run According to a June 2026 projection by Sibanye-Stillwater’s executive team, the world’s mining output of platinum is expected to drop by as much as 15% by 2034. In addition to this, the CEO of Northam Platinum, Paul Dunne, sent a troubling outlook to the market and said the industry is already in a terminal decline, with a predicted 10% drop in national platinum output over five years. Also, even if any significant funds are committed to building mines in the Bushveld Complex, a geological formation in South Africa that holds over 70% of the world’s platinum resources, it would still take about 10 to 15 years for those mines to be completed and commercially producing platinum. Bullish Flag Holds Above Key Support, but the Descending Channel Tests Conviction The daily XPT/USD price chart reveals a bullish flag that has been forming from as far back as January this year. Price recently tested the upper trendline of the flag near $1,920 and rejected it on Thursday, September 10, sending it back down to $1,737 five days later. Platinum is trading near $1,786 per troy ounce as at the time of writing, well above the 1,442 – 1,559 support zone. Price had tested that zone in June and bounced off it, reaching the $1,800 levels by August.

Original source text

The chairman of the Fed, Kevin Warsh has said that inflation is still too high, and he pointed to the U.S.-Iran war as a significant catalyst. The Fed’s hawkish posture places the Platinum Group Metals (PGM) complex under pressure as it increases the opportunity cost of holding them while the dollar strengthens. Metals in the PGM complex include platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and osmium. And platinum price is more likely to fall against the U.S. dollar when the Fed is hawkish.

WPIC Surplus Revision Masks a Dangerously Thin Inventory Buffer A look at platinum’s fundamental picture reveals an interesting demand & supply narrative. On September 9, 2026, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) did a big u-turn on its 2026 platinum supply forecast, changing its previous expectation of a 297,000-ounce deficit to a 265,000-ounce surplus. That reversal measures up to a total of 562,000 ounces. When you analyze this move at the surface level, it looks very bearish, as it represents a sudden shift from deficit to oversupply, which usually leaves sellers chasing buyers and crashing the price of a commodity in the process.

However, things are not that straightforward. The WPIC’s change of heart was as a result of diminishing platinum investments, not higher mining output. Let me explain: according to a WPIC report, there was a drop of 534,000 ounces in platinum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) holdings, as investors were massively selling their shares in the platinum ETF. There was a further reduction in exchange stocks by 65,000 ounces, which led to an overall decline of 599,000 ounces in measured platinum investment demand. These massive investment outflows, which force funds to sell physical platinum blocks held in their vaults and directly translate to a commodity supply shock, were what pushed the WPIC to change their stance on expected 2026 supply.

A 265,000-Ounce Surplus Barely Dents a Three-Year Deficit Now, if we pay attention to the bigger picture, we will see that this forecasted supply shock won’t make much of an impact afterall, as there is a large deficit in the market to absorb it. WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond said by the end of 2026, global platinum inventories will only be able to cover about 3.4 months of demand, even after the ETF supply outflows hit the market. This projection points to a serious global deficit of platinum right now that has been going on for three consecutive years. The measure shortfall in 2025 alone was 1.4 million ounces and a 265,000-ounce surplus will only fill about 8% of the stockpile depleted between 2022 and 2025.

Long story short, not much of a supply shock can be expected when the WPIC’s projected surplus hits the market. Which means that the current market deficit will still very much be in play, and will support the bull case for platinum.

South Africa’s Structural Decline Is Not Reversible on Any Short Timeline Another key factor that determines what happens to platinum’s price is whether the global mining output of the metal is able to meet demand or not. South Africa is home to about 91% of the world’s Platinum Group Metals (PGM) reserves, however, the country’s output has continuously declined over time. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, South Africa’s PGM output declined by an estimated 9% between 2024 and 2025. This decline is mostly as a result of old infrastructure, rising operational costs, and unreliable electricity supply.

To make matters worse, the country’s utility authority, Eskom, has increased mining tariffs by around 60% in the last 5 years, with an April 2026 tariff bump of 8.76%, according to NERSA filings. The problem these electricity costs bring is that once they are deducted from the current prices of platinum, the margins left are significantly smaller.

Mining CEOs Warn the Output Slide Has Years Left to Run According to a June 2026 projection by Sibanye-Stillwater’s executive team, the world’s mining output of platinum is expected to drop by as much as 15% by 2034. In addition to this, the CEO of Northam Platinum, Paul Dunne, sent a troubling outlook to the market and said the industry is already in a terminal decline, with a predicted 10% drop in national platinum output over five years. Also, even if any significant funds are committed to building mines in the Bushveld Complex, a geological formation in South Africa that holds over 70% of the world’s platinum resources, it would still take about 10 to 15 years for those mines to be completed and commercially producing platinum.

Bullish Flag Holds Above Key Support, but the Descending Channel Tests Conviction The daily XPT/USD price chart reveals a bullish flag that has been forming from as far back as January this year. Price recently tested the upper trendline of the flag near $1,920 and rejected it on Thursday, September 10, sending it back down to $1,737 five days later. Platinum is trading near $1,786 per troy ounce as at the time of writing, well above the 1,442 – 1,559 support zone. Price had tested that zone in June and bounced off it, reaching the $1,800 levels by August.

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