The venue's HIP-3 markets for stocks, commodities and indices first topped its native crypto volume on July 8 and have led on several trading days since — though they fade on weekends, and single-name stocks alone still trail crypto
Traders on Hyperliquid, the onchain exchange that settles the largest share of crypto perpetual futures volume, are trading more money through builder-deployed markets for stocks, commodities and indices than through the platform's native crypto contracts.
Those builder markets, deployed under Hyperliquid's HIP-3 framework, generated $5.41 billion in notional volume, or 51.8% of the $10.44 billion traded across the exchange, according to data from Hyperliquid's API queried by The Defiant on Tuesday. Native crypto perps, led by Bitcoin at $2.69 billion and Ether at $1.27 billion, accounted for the other $5.03 billion.
Builder markets first outtraded native crypto over a full trading day on July 8, when they took 54.6% of volume, and repeated it on July 9 and July 10, according to a Defiant analysis of daily Hyperliquid market data. The pattern is confined to weekdays.
On July 5, 11 and 12, all weekend days, builder markets fell back to between 16% and 33% of volume as trading in stocks, commodities and indices thinned while crypto kept turning over.
Builder-market share of Hyperliquid volume climbed from near zero at HIP-3's launch to above 50% for the first time on July 8. Source: The Defiant analysis of Hyperliquid market data.Growing ShiftThe shift has been building for months. Builder-market share climbed from a fraction of a percent when HIP-3 launched in October to roughly a third through the spring, peaking just under parity on single days in April and June before clearing 50% this month.
Show ImageBuilder-market share of Hyperliquid volume climbed from near zero at HIP-3's launch to above 50% for the first time on July 8. Source: The Defiant analysis of Hyperliquid market data.
The crossover shows how far Hyperliquid has moved from its origins as a crypto derivatives venue toward a round-the-clock market for a wider range of assets. It feeds a thesis argued by firms including Grayscale that the exchange's long-term value lies less in its HYPE token than in its potential to serve as a 24/7 trading layer for equities, commodities and other instruments that traditional venues close each night and weekend.
The shift drew attention on Tuesday after a trader posting as @ryandcrypto wrote that "people are officially trading more stocks than crypto on hyperliquid," alongside a chart of the two volumes. The exchange's own data supports only a narrower version of the claim: builder markets as a group have topped crypto on recent weekdays, but not for the first time on Tuesday, and single-name stocks on their own have not.
'Stocks' Overstates ItSingle-name equity perps drew $3.2 billion over the 24-hour window, still below crypto's $5.03 billion. The builder-market total clears crypto only once commodities and index perps are added. Crude oil, Brent and silver contracts together traded about $1.42 billion, and index perps tracking the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 added roughly $686 million.
Equity volume is also heavily concentrated. Perps on SK Hynix, the South Korean memory-chip maker, alone accounted for $1.62 billion, or roughly half of all single-stock volume. A cluster of related semiconductor and memory names followed, including Micron, SanDisk and Samsung, alongside a market tracking DRAM chip prices. Strip out SK Hynix, and stock volume falls to less than a third of crypto's.
Stocks trading on Hyperliquid still lower than crypto. Source: The Defiant analysis of Hyperliquid market data.One Builder Runs the ShowHIP-3 lets outside teams launch their own perpetual markets on Hyperliquid's infrastructure by staking 500,000 HYPE, worth about $32 million at current prices. The framework went live on Oct. 13, 2025. One builder, trade.xyz, dominates it, and on Tuesday accounted for all but a fraction of the $5.41 billion in builder-market volume through the equity, commodity and index perps it operates.
HIP-3's share of Hyperliquid activity has climbed from a small slice at the start of the year to roughly half now, according to exchange data. Hyperliquid settles an estimated 70% of all onchain perpetual futures volume and ranks as one of the largest fee-generating protocols in crypto, with an annualized revenue run rate near $840 million.
HYPE rose 1.7% over the past 24 hours, lagging a 3.6% gain in Bitcoin, according to data from CoinGecko. The token trades around a $14.4 billion market cap and is down about 10% over the past week.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Crypto Task Force recently convened with representatives from the Hyperliquid Policy Center and Trade[XYZ] to discuss approaches to crypto asset regulation. This meeting, as revealed by a newly released memo, reflects ongoing efforts to develop legal frameworks for decentralized perpetual derivatives and on-chain market infrastructures. Hyperliquid, a decentralized derivatives platform, has been advocating for clearer regulatory oversight, including the potential involvement of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This meeting underscores intensified industry lobbying to influence the shaping of federal rules for decentralized finance (DeFi) derivatives, which have faced significant regulatory hurdles in the U.S.
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Market pricing suggests that the SEC meeting may be seen as a positive step towards regulatory clarity for Hyperliquid. The current market odds for Hyperliquid reaching $100 by the end of 2026 have seen a decline, with the probability now at 30%, down from 39% just 24 hours ago. Despite this, the meeting could indicate a future environment more conducive to growth if regulatory frameworks become more defined.
Key Takeaways The SEC’s meeting with Hyperliquid and Trade[XYZ] appears to indicate ongoing efforts to clarify regulatory frameworks for crypto assets. Market pricing suggests that participants view this as a potential positive development for Hyperliquid’s regulatory environment. The probability of Hyperliquid reaching $100 by the end of 2026 has declined recently, but the meeting could suggest future regulatory support. What to Watch Market participants will be closely monitoring any public statements or policy shifts from the SEC or CFTC that suggest increased regulatory clarity for decentralized derivatives. The impact of this meeting on Hyperliquid’s competitive position will depend on how these discussions translate into actual regulatory changes. Further announcements or partnerships from Hyperliquid could also influence market perceptions and pricing dynamics.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 30% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 4% — — View market → January 1 2027 66.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 9.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.5% — — View market →
Prediction markets are crypto’s quiet killer app. Polymarket proved that during the 2024 US election cycle. Now Hyperliquid wants a piece of the action, and Outcome.xyz is the team trying to blow the doors open.
The push is simple: let anyone deploy a prediction market on Hyperliquid’s infrastructure without needing permission from validators or anyone else. It hasn’t happened yet. And the community is making noise about it.
What HIP-4 built, and what it’s missing Hyperliquid launched its HIP-4 outcome markets on mainnet back on May 2. These are binary contracts that settle to either 0 or 1, essentially yes-or-no bets baked directly into Hyperliquid’s core trading engine, HyperCore. Shared order books, shared margining, shared data feeds.
Outcome.xyz was the team that deployed the first wave of these markets. They started with recurring daily BTC price binaries, the kind of straightforward contract that lets you stress-test plumbing without getting too creative. Early trading volumes hit several million dollars in notional value on the first days alone.
But here’s the thing: every single market that exists right now had to go through Hyperliquid’s validators. There’s no self-serve option. As of mid-July, permissionless deployment still hasn’t gone live.
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Why permissionless matters Hyperliquid’s current model relies on validators to both approve and settle markets. Instead of trusting some external oracle service to report outcomes, Hyperliquid’s own validator set handles settlement. It reduces a major attack surface that has plagued prediction markets for years.
But validator gating for market creation means the menu of available markets is limited to whatever gets approved through that process. Community feedback on July 14 made the frustration clear, with calls for permissionless rollout “asap.”
Outcome.xyz appears to be the team most actively pushing this forward. As the primary frontend developer for HIP-4 markets, they have both the technical proximity and the incentive to see the gates come down.
The competitive chess match Hyperliquid isn’t entering an empty room. Polymarket remains the dominant on-chain prediction platform, and Kalshi has carved out a regulated niche in the US market. Both have significant head starts in liquidity, user base, and market variety.
What Hyperliquid brings to the table is integration. Hyperliquid’s pitch is that prediction markets live inside the same trading engine as perpetuals, spot markets, and everything else on the platform. A trader doesn’t need to move capital to a separate protocol to place a prediction bet. If you’re already running a strategy on Hyperliquid’s perpetuals, you can allocate margin to prediction markets without fragmenting your capital across platforms.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup represents exactly the kind of global event that drives massive prediction market volume, and a permissionless rollout before or during the event could serve as a significant catalyst for adoption.
Volumes on HIP-4 markets remain modest compared to dedicated prediction platforms. Several million dollars on launch days is encouraging infrastructure validation, not market dominance.
What investors should watch The permissionless deployment timeline is the single most important variable here. Until third-party builders can create markets freely, HIP-4 remains a proof of concept rather than a competitive product.
The validator-as-oracle settlement model eliminates oracle risk, which is a real problem that has caused costly misresolutions on other platforms. But it also means every market outcome depends on validator consensus, and as market variety expands into subjective or ambiguous territory, that consensus mechanism will be tested in ways that simple BTC price binaries never will.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
14 July 2026 | 23:44 Representatives connected to the Hyperliquid ecosystem met with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s Crypto Task Force on July 14, 2026, bringing the architecture of decentralized perpetual markets into the agency’s regulatory discussions.
Key Takeaways SEC task force met Hyperliquid ecosystem representatives. Talks focused on decentralized perpetual market regulation. HIP-3 separates market deployment from core execution. Meeting confirms engagement, not regulatory approval. U.S. access still requires concrete regulatory action. According to the SEC’s official meeting memorandum, the participants represented the Hyperliquid Policy Center, XYZ Ltd. and Sullivan & Cromwell LLP. The stated topic was how regulators could address issues involving crypto assets.
What the SEC Filing Actually Confirms The attached meeting request sought to brief the task force on the Hyperliquid protocol’s technology, markets and relevant ecosystem participants. It described Hyperliquid Labs as a software contributor and XYZ as a research and product laboratory operating a HIP-3 deployment for traditional-asset perpetual markets.
The proposed attendee list included Hyperliquid Policy Center CEO Jake Chervinsky, policy counsel Bradley Bourque, Hyperliquid founder Jeff Yan, XYZ representative Collins Belton and four lawyers from Sullivan & Cromwell.
The disclosure is more limited than a formal policy proposal. It does not publish a detailed technical presentation, identify specific exemptions requested from the SEC or record any commitments made by the agency. The meeting therefore confirms regulatory engagement, not approval of Hyperliquid, HIP-3 products or access for U.S. traders.
HIP-3 Separates Market Design From Trade Execution The policy question is complicated by how responsibilities are distributed under Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal 3.
HIP-3 allows independent builders to deploy perpetual markets without relying on a centralized listing committee. Each deployer is responsible for several functions that would normally sit with a derivatives venue:
Market definition: selecting the reference asset, contract specifications and oracle methodology. Risk controls: setting leverage limits and determining whether an asset is eligible for cross-margin treatment. Market operation: publishing oracle prices and settling or halting the contract when necessary. A mainnet deployer must maintain a stake of 500,000 HYPE. Validators can slash that stake through a weighted vote when irregular deployer inputs harm protocol correctness, uptime or performance. Slashed tokens are burned rather than distributed as compensation to affected traders.
Trade execution remains inside HyperCore, Hyperliquid’s native trading system. It provides the order books and margining infrastructure, although every HIP-3 exchange retains independent settings and its own market configuration. Cross-margining is not automatic: enabling it is irreversible and requires sufficient external liquidity, a dependable oracle and resistance to price manipulation.
XYZ illustrates that division of responsibilities. Its technical documentation states that HyperCore manages matching, order types, funding, liquidations and auto-deleveraging. XYZ supplies the bespoke oracle, mark price and external price used for its markets through distributed relayers that submit updates approximately every three seconds.
These contracts provide synthetic exposure rather than ownership of the referenced asset. An equity perpetual settled in USDC does not deliver the underlying share, making it legally and economically different from a tokenized security representing ownership rights. The distinction leaves regulators with separate questions around the derivative itself, the trading infrastructure, the oracle operator and any interface providing access.
The regulatory discussion is unfolding as Hyperliquid becomes more important to the economics of stablecoin distribution. JPMorgan recently lowered its earnings estimates for Circle and Coinbase, arguing that their revised USDC arrangement with Hyperliquid could pressure margins as both companies seek to preserve the stablecoin’s dominant position on the platform. The frequently cited $160 million figure represents estimated reserve yield that could be redirected under the arrangement, rather than a confirmed net loss.
The SEC Agenda Offers a Framework, Not a HIP-3 License The meeting took place one week after SEC Chair Paul Atkins published a statement on the agency’s 2026 Regulatory Agenda. Atkins said the Commission intends to establish clearer rules for crypto fundraising, custody and the trading of tokenized securities onchain.
Three pending workstreams are relevant to the broader Hyperliquid discussion: The SEC is considering exemptions and safe harbors for crypto-asset offerings. Proposed amendments could apply broker-dealer net-capital, customer-protection and recordkeeping rules to crypto-asset activities under Rules 15c3-1 and 15c3-3. A separate project would adapt Exchange Act rules for crypto trading on alternative trading systems and national securities exchanges. None of those entries expressly creates a pathway for permissionless perpetual markets. The SEC’s agenda primarily concerns securities offerings, broker-dealers and securities-trading venues, while the operation of derivatives markets also raises Commodity Exchange Act questions overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Hyperliquid’s policy effort is consequently proceeding on both tracks. In a July 9 submission to the CFTC, the Hyperliquid Policy Center and Phantom asked the derivatives regulator to distinguish software development from regulated financial intermediation.
Their proposed model would keep registration and compliance obligations with entities that handle customer orders, control funds or enter transactions, rather than automatically imposing them on developers publishing protocol code. The submission also called for regulated exchanges, clearing organizations and futures commission merchants to be allowed to use public blockchain infrastructure, subject to their existing market-surveillance, segregation and customer-protection duties.
U.S. Access Still Depends on Concrete Regulatory Action The SEC meeting creates a channel for explaining how Hyperliquid divides functions among validators, deployers, interfaces and users. It does not resolve which participants would need registration when a HIP-3 market references equities, indices or other traditional assets.
The current TradeXYZ disclaimer states that its interface is unavailable to U.S. persons. Changing that position would require more than a policy discussion: regulators would need to define the accountable entity for listing, market surveillance, oracle governance, margining, customer access and settlement.
Evidence of substantive progress would include a proposed SEC or CFTC rule covering onchain market infrastructure, formal guidance separating protocol development from market operation, registration by a venue using HyperCore or published exemptive relief addressing non-custodial access. Until one of those steps occurs, the July 14 session should be treated as regulatory engagement rather than authorization.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
Author
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
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Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
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South Korea will establish a strategic investment account to invest in strategic industries.
South Korea has shelved a plan to establish an independent sovereign wealth fund, which was originally modeled after Singapore’s Temasek Holdings and Australia’s Future Fund. Instead, the country will set up a strategic investment account within the Korea Investment Corporation (KIC). South Korea’s Ministry of Finance stated that the account will invest in domestic and overseas sectors critical to national competitiveness and economic security, with investment targets spanning strategic industries such as nuclear energy and aerospace, core areas including finance and infrastructure, as well as overseas supply chains.
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A South Korean investment-focused YouTuber was attacked with a knife by a viewer, allegedly triggered by huge losses from following the YouTuber's stock investment recommendations.
According to a report by The Chosun Ilbo, a stock investment-focused YouTuber in his 40s in Busan, South Korea was repeatedly stabbed with a knife by a man in his 20s. The suspect was a subscriber to the YouTube channel, the report noted. Some local media outlets added that the attack’s motive stemmed from the suspect incurring heavy investment losses after buying stocks recommended by the YouTuber, sparking resentment that led to the assault. The case is currently under further investigation.
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Analysis: The US and Iran are trapped in a war of attrition in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides facing time pressure.
As tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate, analysts believe the U.S. and Iran are entering a war of attrition centered on time, cost, and political endurance. Reports indicate Trump aims to resolve the conflict before the U.S. midterm elections to avoid further oil price hikes, while Iran is seeking to prolong time without triggering full-scale war by repeatedly threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, in order to wear down the U.S.'s political and military patience. To date, the U.S. has reinstated blockades on Iranian ports and maritime shipping, and has been striking military targets that threaten navigation; Iran, in turn, continues to target Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes with missiles and drones, attempting to disrupt global energy transport. Analysts note that with both sides seeking to avoid full-scale escalation, this standoff is likely to evolve into a prolonged war of attrition.
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South Korean securities firms discuss raising minimum deposit requirements for chip stock leveraged ETFs.
The Korea Financial Investment Association (KFIA) announced that CEOs of 10 major South Korean asset management firms have discussed investor protection measures for individual stock leveraged ETFs, including raising minimum deposit requirements and staggering rebalancing trading times. Per the association’s statement, attendees agreed it is necessary to lift the minimum deposit threshold for investing in such leveraged products from the current 10 million won (US$6,714). They also emphasized the need to strengthen the market stabilizer function of liquidity providers. Citing data from the Korea Capital Market Institute, the KFIA noted that since the launch of related leveraged ETFs, daily stock trading volume required for rebalancing is estimated at between 700 billion won and 2.1 trillion won.
Top participants on the Hyperliquid platform are currently holding significant long positions in bitcoin:native (BTC), surpassing the levels recorded during the cryptocurrency’s previous peak at approximately $83,000. This development indicates strong speculative demand for Bitcoin at its current price range of $62,600 to $62,800. The recent activity on Hyperliquid, a notable cryptocurrency exchange, reflects a record level of whale long positions, with the total whale exposure on the platform now at around $3.5 billion. This exposure slightly favors longs over shorts, contributing to the narrative of heightened sentiment consistent with YES outcome support among these top participants.
The current price of Bitcoin is down about 2-2.4% from the previous day but remains up approximately 6.3% for the month. Despite this, the broader market sentiment remains mixed, with some divergence among participants. One of the largest whales on Hyperliquid has notably increased their long positions, holding about $445 million in assets, including 2,500 BTC and 120,000 ETH, even after Bitcoin’s price temporarily dipped to $59,000. This aggressive positioning may suggest an expectation of further price increases or a strategic play to capitalize on potential market movements.
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Market participants on platforms like Polymarket appear to reflect this sentiment, with the probability of Hyperliquid reaching $100 by December 31, 2026, currently priced at 30% YES. This is a decrease from previous days, indicating some hesitation or recalibration amid the ongoing market dynamics.
Key Takeaways The current long positions on Hyperliquid exceed previous levels seen during Bitcoin’s peak, suggesting strong speculative demand. Bitcoin’s price has experienced a slight decline but remains significantly higher for the month, with mixed market sentiment. The probability of Hyperliquid reaching $100 by year-end has decreased, reflecting potential caution among market participants. What to Watch Observers should monitor Bitcoin’s price movements and market sentiment, as these will be key indicators of whether the current speculative demand will translate into sustained price increases. Additionally, any developments related to regulatory discussions or significant announcements from influential market participants could impact market dynamics. The ongoing activity on Hyperliquid and shifts in whale positioning will also be crucial in understanding broader market trends.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 30% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 4% — — View market → January 1 2027 66.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 9.1% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.5% — — View market →
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest bank in the world by market capitalization, has sounded the alarm about Coinbase and Circle’s USDC-based revenue in their partnership with Hyperliquid.
USDC alliance expected to slash Coinbase and Circle earningsAccording to the bank’s July 2026 report, the partnership among the three crypto players creates a prisoner’s dilemma. Essentially, Coinbase and Circle are competing for the distribution of the stablecoin to increase their revenue.
“We think the change in the Hyperliquid relationship showcases the challenge for Circle and Coinbase partnership agreements because it can create ‘a prisoner’s dilemma’ that drives Coinbase and Circle to compete with each other when promoting USDC distribution,” analysts led by Kenneth Worthington said in the Tuesday report.
Hyperliquid is currently the largest decentralized exchange, boasting over $150 billion in processed transactions this July. In the same month, the Hyperliquid-Binance volume ratio officially surpassed the 11.89% milestone, following a 47% month-over-month surge in Hyperliquid’s trading volume. At present, Hyperliquid holds about $6 billion in USDC, or about 8% of the stablecoin’s circulating supply.
Two months ago, the trio entered into an agreement in which Coinbase became the official USDC liquidity manager on Hyperliquid. Meanwhile, Circle managed cross-chain infrastructure and minting to reduce third-party risk.
In return, Coinbase would route 90% of the stablecoin yield back to Hyperliquid. The exchange then uses these funds to conduct regular HYPE token buybacks, thereby boosting the token’s value. This arrangement overturned a previous contract in which Coinbase split nearly all of the stablecoin’s revenue evenly with Circle.
More reasons for lower returnsWeaker crypto markets have also cut stablecoin yields, with USDC supply now down to $73 billion from around $80 billion in March. Even more, the crypto industry is continuously incorporating regulated stablecoins, chipping away at Circle’s USDC’s previous dominance.
Japanese investment bank Mizuho notes that while Circle’s approval to open a bank is positive, investors may be overvaluing it.
Whether JPMorgan’s warnings hold any weight remains to be seen once Coinbase and Circle release their Q2 earnings reports on July 30 and August 11, respectively.
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JPMorgan flags a structural shift in USDC economicsJPMorgan has lowered its earnings forecasts for @circle and @coinbase, warning that a new revenue-sharing agreement with Hyperliquid is weakening the economics behind $USDC. Circle and Coinbase announced the partnership with Hyperliquid in May to expand $USDC adoption. Hyperliquid operates as both a Layer-1 blockchain and a decentralized exchange for spot and derivatives trading, and as of June 11, $USDC became the preferred stablecoin on the platform.
Under the new structure, @coinbase classifies any $USDC on Hyperliquid as "on-platform," earning all associated reserve income but paying 90% of the float back to Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid holds roughly $6 billion in $USDC, representing about 8% of the stablecoin's circulating supply, according to JPMorgan estimates. JPMorgan estimated @coinbase previously split nearly all of that revenue evenly with @circle.
@jpmorgan said the arrangement creates a "prisoner's dilemma" that encourages @circle and @coinbase to compete for $USDC distribution at the expense of their own revenue. Even if $USDC becomes more widely used, the profit margins for @coinbase and @circle could still shrink.
Market impact and broader pressure on the stablecoin pairJPMorgan cut its price target for @coinbase from $283 to $196 after saying the new partnership involving $USDC could reduce revenue in the near term. The bank said the full impact of the Hyperliquid relationship will not appear in second-quarter results but will be incorporated in the second half of 2026.
Previous estimates from Compass Point suggested the agreement could redirect between $135 million and $160 million in annual reserve income toward Hyperliquid, with the combined annual earnings of @circle and @coinbase potentially falling by between $60 million and $80 million.
$USDC's circulating supply has fallen to about $73 billion from nearly $80 billion in March, part of a broader $10 billion contraction in the stablecoin market since May as crypto trading activity cooled and new regulated rivals chipped away at the dominance of $USDC and Tether's USDT. Hyperliquid, meanwhile, processed more than $150 billion in trading volume during July, with its volume relative to Binance reaching 11.5%, making it an increasingly important distribution channel for $USDC, according to @jpmorgan.
The broader takeaway is a structural one: as platforms like Hyperliquid grow, the economics of stablecoin distribution are being renegotiated. Growing competition is forcing stablecoin companies to share more reserve income with exchanges and payment platforms. The platforms holding the coins are increasingly the ones capturing the yield.
Sources:
CoinDesk: JPMorgan sees Hyperliquid partnership weighing on Circle, Coinbase
Yahoo Finance: JPMorgan cuts estimates for Circle and Coinbase on Hyperliquid pressure
CryptoNews: JPMorgan warns Hyperliquid's growth threatens Circle's USDC economics
What Did JPMorgan Actually Say?Analysts led by Kenneth Worthington said the Hyperliquid deal created a structural problem for the Circle-Coinbase partnership.
Under the new arrangement, Coinbase classifies USDC held on Hyperliquid as “on-platform,” collects the reserve income, and pays 90% of it directly to Hyperliquid.
Previously, Coinbase split nearly all of that revenue evenly with Circle.
“We think the change in the Hyperliquid relationship showcases the challenge for Circle and Coinbase partnership agreements because it can create a prisoner’s dilemma that drives Coinbase and Circle to compete with each other when promoting USDC distribution,” Worthington wrote.
The problem is structural. Every time Coinbase chases a major distribution partner by offering better revenue terms, it cuts into Circle’s share.
Every time Circle tries to protect its economics, it risks losing distribution. Both sides are now incentivized to undercut each other to secure the next Hyperliquid-scale deal.
Why Does Hyperliquid Make This A Bigger Deal Than It Looks?Hyperliquid has grown into one of crypto’s largest trading venues, processing more than $150 billion in trading volume in July alone.
Its volume relative to Binance climbed to 11.5%, and USDC balances on the platform have swelled to roughly $6 billion, representing about 8% of the entire circulating USDC supply.
That scale makes Hyperliquid an increasingly important distribution channel, which is exactly why Coinbase was willing to offer 90% of reserve yields to secure it.
The more platforms of this size emerge, the more pressure Circle and Coinbase face to keep offering similar terms elsewhere.
How Much Has USDC Already Lost?USDC’s circulating supply has fallen from nearly $80 billion in March to around $73 billion, part of a broader $10 billion contraction in the stablecoin market since May.
Crypto trading activity cooled while new regulated rivals chipped away at both USDC and Tether’s USDT dominance.
JPMorgan cut earnings estimates for both Circle and Coinbase citing the Hyperliquid agreement alongside weaker crypto markets, though the bank noted higher interest rates provide some support for USDC-related revenue over the longer term.
Mizuho said last week that Circle’s approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish First National Digital Currency Bank is a positive milestone, but warned investors may be overestimating how much it moves the needle on USDC growth given the competitive pressures now in place.
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JPMorgan has reduced its earnings forecast for both Circle and Coinbase after it signed a new revenue-sharing deal with Hyperliquid that affected the distribution of income generated by USDC’s reserves. The agreement might affect the overall economics of the stablecoin business for both the companies in the long run, the bank added.
Wall Street is taking a closer look at the revenue-sharing arrangement between stablecoin issuers and distribution platforms. While some analysts remain optimistic about Circle’s long-term position, others believe competition for USDC adoption could reduce profit margins.
JPMorgan Raises Concerns Over Hyperliquid Agreement JPMorgan cited a new deal between Coinbase, Circle, and Hyperliquid that will change the way the reserve currency from USDC on Coinbase is split.
As part of the deal, Coinbase will categorize USDC on Hyperliquid as “on-platform” balances. Coinbase will get those reserves but will give 90% of income back to Hyperliquid rather than divide it among themselves and Circle.
JPMorgan estimates that Hyperliquid has approximately $6 billion in USDC, which is approximately 8% of the total circulating supply.
The bank said that the situation is a “prisoner’s dilemma” because both Coinbase and Circle are looking to drive more volume on USDC while giving up a larger share of the revenue generated by the reserves backing the stablecoin.
Partnership Aims To Expand USDC Adoption On May 14, Circle and Coinbase announced their partnership with Hyperliquid as part of their broader strategy to increase the adoption of USDC.
Hyperliquid has its own Layer-1 blockchain as well as a decentralized exchange that supports spot and perpetual futures. USDC has now emerged as the preferred stablecoin of the platform since June 11.
JPMorgan, however, has a different view about the financial terms that facilitated the deal and thinks that it will impact the future revenue of both Circle and Coinbase.
Wall Street Remains Divided on Circle Not all analysts are being all that bearish on JPMorgan. Mizuho has also become more cautious on Circle, downgrading the stock as concerns grow over the economics of USDC.
Meanwhile, companies such as Bernstein and William Blair have retained their bullish outlook on the company.
JPMorgan also said it still expects USDC-related earnings to grow through 2027, supported by expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer. The bank now expects a 25 basis point increase in interest rates at the Federal Reserve’s October 2026 meeting.
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JPMorgan has lowered its earnings forecasts for Circle and Coinbase after a new USDC revenue-sharing agreement with Hyperliquid changed how income from the stablecoin’s reserves will be divided.
Summary
JPMorgan cut earnings forecasts for Circle and Coinbase after the Hyperliquid USDC deal. The bank warned new revenue-sharing terms could pressure stablecoin profit margins. Analysts remain divided as higher interest rates may still support USDC earnings growth. According to a JPMorgan research note, the revised agreement could reduce the long-term profitability of the USDC business for both companies, even as they continue pursuing higher adoption of the dollar-backed stablecoin.
JPMorgan Cuts Circle and Coinbase Forecasts Over Hyperliquid Deal
JPMorgan downgraded earnings estimates for Circle and Coinbase, stating their new agreement with Hyperliquid weakens USDC economics. Coinbase will now pay 90% of USDC reserve yields on the platform to Hyperliquid,… pic.twitter.com/tnRhp5uG7M
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 14, 2026 The bank argued that competition among distribution partners may force issuers to give away a larger share of reserve income to secure market share.
New revenue-sharing terms reduce reserve income Under the arrangement highlighted by JPMorgan, Coinbase will classify USDC held on Hyperliquid as “on-platform” balances. As a result, Coinbase will receive the reserve income generated by those deposits but will return 90% of that revenue to Hyperliquid instead of splitting the proceeds with Circle under the companies’ existing economic arrangement.
JPMorgan estimated that Hyperliquid currently holds about $6 billion worth of USDC, representing roughly 8% of the stablecoin’s circulating supply. Because of the platform’s growing role in the USDC ecosystem, the bank believes the revised economics could have a noticeable effect on future earnings for both Circle and Coinbase.
Describing the competitive dynamic, JPMorgan said both companies face pressure to increase USDC usage even if doing so requires surrendering a larger portion of reserve revenue to distribution partners. The bank characterized the situation as one in which efforts to expand adoption could come at the cost of lower profitability.
The revenue-sharing concerns follow an announcement made on May 14, when Circle and Coinbase revealed a partnership with Hyperliquid to deepen USDC integration across the crypto trading platform. Hyperliquid operates both a Layer-1 blockchain and a decentralized exchange offering spot and perpetual futures markets.
Since June 11, USDC has become Hyperliquid’s preferred stablecoin, strengthening the platform’s importance within Circle’s distribution network. JPMorgan said the commercial terms supporting that expansion, rather than the growth in usage itself, have become the main issue for investors evaluating future earnings.
Wall Street remains divided on Circle’s outlook Elsewhere on Wall Street, analysts have reached different conclusions about Circle’s long-term prospects. Mizuho has also taken a more cautious stance on the company, downgrading the stock as concerns grow over whether expanding USDC adoption will continue to generate attractive economics.
By contrast, Bernstein and William Blair have maintained positive ratings on Circle, indicating they still expect the stablecoin issuer to benefit from continued growth in digital dollar usage despite increasing competition for distribution partnerships.
Even after cutting its earnings estimates, JPMorgan said it continues to forecast growth in USDC-related earnings through 2027. The bank attributed that expectation to its interest-rate outlook, which now includes a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase at the October 2026 meeting.
Higher rates generally increase the income earned on the cash and Treasury reserves backing USDC, providing an offset to the revenue-sharing concessions outlined in the Hyperliquid agreement.
For investors, the latest debate has shifted attention away from USDC’s circulating supply alone and toward how reserve income is divided among issuers, exchanges, and distribution partners. JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that while adoption can continue rising, the financial value retained by Circle and Coinbase may come under increasing pressure as more platforms negotiate similar commercial terms.
The rapid ascent of decentralized perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid is forcing a reassessment of stablecoin economics, and the latest voice to flag the risk comes from JPMorgan. In a research note covered by the original report, the bank’s analysts argue that Hyperliquid’s deepening integration with Circle and Coinbase creates a prisoner’s dilemma that could erode the profit margins Circle derives from its USDC stablecoin.
The core tension is structural. Hyperliquid now processes billions of dollars in daily notional volume, largely settled in USDC. The exchange’s deal with Circle and Coinbase gave it preferential access to stablecoin liquidity and fiat ramps, but those terms also reshape how revenue from USDC reserves gets shared across the ecosystem. As the venue grows, it captures a larger slice of the stablecoin velocity that issuers typically monetize through interest on Treasury-held reserves.
How Stablecoin Revenue Flows Really Work Most of the crypto market understands that stablecoin issuers like Circle earn from the yield on their reserve assets. Less discussed is how that yield gets distributed behind the scenes. Exchanges, institutional partners, and large on-chain venues that drive USDC demand often receive a share of the interest income—effectively a rebate for custodying, wrapping, or facilitating high-volume usage. This revenue-sharing model is what keeps USDC liquid across centralized and decentralized platforms.
When Hyperliquid locked in its arrangement with Circle and Coinbase, it likely secured economics that reflect its outsized contribution to USDC turnover. The platform routinely handles north of $5 billion in daily perps activity, with USDC functioning as the dominant margin and settlement asset. That volume gives it leverage. But if one venue gets a lopsided deal, other exchanges—both CeFi and DeFi—will inevitably demand similar treatment. JPMorgan’s note frames this as a classic prisoner’s dilemma: every participant has an incentive to extract the best possible terms, but if all of them succeed, Circle’s unit economics deteriorate sharply.
Why Hyperliquid’s Deal Creates a Structural Tension The deal’s effect isn’t just about Hyperliquid. It sets a precedent. Other L1 and L2 perp protocols, order-book DEXs, and even large centralized exchanges that hold significant USDC balances will now point to Hyperliquid’s terms when renegotiating their own revenue-sharing agreements. Circle could face a wave of margin compression that accelerates as on-chain derivatives markets keep eating into traditional exchange volume.
For Coinbase, the calculus is different. The exchange holds an equity stake in Circle and benefits from USDC’s growth in market cap. But it also operates a competing derivatives venue. By co-signing the deal, Coinbase may be accepting a trade-off: sacrifice some interest income on the stablecoin side to ensure Hyperliquid’s flow stays within the Circle orbit rather than migrating to USDT or a new entrant. That’s a defensive move, but it doesn’t make Circle’s earnings picture any brighter. Recent institutional activity, including tokenized Treasury settlements involving JPMorgan itself, shows how competition for yield-bearing stablecoin alternatives is intensifying.
The Long-Term View for USDC and DeFi Circle’s profitability was already under scrutiny. After the Federal Reserve began cutting rates, the interest income from its reserve portfolio shrank, and competition from Tether’s USDT continued to chip away at market share. If the Hyperliquid arrangement leads to a broader re-rating of revenue splits, USDC becomes a thinner-margin business just as it faces regulatory demands that may require higher compliance costs. Stablecoin legislation in the U.S. could add further strain by forcing issuers to hold capital buffers or restrict reserve asset composition.
What remains unclear is whether Circle can restructure its partnerships without losing volume. Hyperliquid’s users are not particularly loyal to one stablecoin; they follow liquidity and low fees. If Circle tried to claw back margins, the perp platform could easily add native support for USDT or a decentralized alternative. That switching risk limits Circle’s negotiating power and suggests the current pressure might be permanent rather than cyclical.
The market hasn’t yet priced in the second-order effects. USDC’s market cap fluctuates with broader crypto sentiment, but the underlying economics of how it generates value are quietly shifting. As DeFi increasingly revolves around high-throughput derivatives venues, stablecoin issuers may be forced to accept a utility-style return rather than the banking-style margins they once enjoyed. Hyperliquid’s rise isn’t just a competitive threat to centralized exchanges—it’s also reshaping the plumbing that funds stablecoin revenue.
Whether this dynamic accelerates depends on how other major venues react. If Binance or Bybit extract similar terms, Circle’s interest income could decline meaningfully even if USDC supply stays flat. That’s the kind of structural squeeze that analysts at JPMorgan are watching, and it places Hyperliquid at the center of a conversation that extends far beyond perps volume numbers.
AUTHOR
Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.
According to Hyperinsight monitoring, SK Hynix’s stock once dipped below $1,200 intraday today, triggering a wave of concentrated bottom-fishing in crypto-related contracts. Across platforms, long positions for SKHX rose significantly; Binance’s funding rate jumped to 0.5% per 8 hours, with trading congestion rising notably. On Hyperliquid, the large wallet posting the strongest profit in this bottom-fishing round is the address starting with 0x803. This address currently holds a 10x isolated long position of 1,500 SKHX contracts, with a notional position size of around $1.949 million and an average entry price of $1,183.3. As of press time, SKHX trades at approximately $1,299.5, some 9.8% above its cost basis. The long position has an unrealized profit of around $174,300, with the return rate climbing to 98.2%—the highest among all visible large SKHX bottom-fishing addresses on the platform, and its liquidation price stands at $1,023.9. Data shows that during SKHX’s accelerated midday dip, this address completed 228 buy orders within roughly half an hour, accumulating 1,500 contracts at prices ranging from $1,165.7 to $1,204.4, with a total transaction value of around $1.775 million. Following SKHX’s subsequent sharp rebound, the position quickly turned from low-level entry to substantial unrealized profit. Currently, the address has placed two take-profit sell orders for 300 contracts each at $1,305.5 and $1,315.5 respectively, totaling 600 contracts with a notional value of around $786,000, covering 40% of its current long position. If both orders are fully executed, the remaining 900 long contracts will retain upside exposure. HyperInsight Bot is now live. Add @HyperInsightBot to your Telegram group and set it as admin (enable message sending permission) to automatically sync on-chain news.
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The market is holding its breath, not falling apart. Bitcoin sits just above $62,600 after a 0.8% daily dip, US inflation data lands today, and the one chart everyone should glance at is not BTC at all. It is Hyperliquid, down 10.3% on the week, the worst print in the entire top 10.
BTC Waits for the CPI Print Bitcoin trades at $62,617 as of July 14, 2026, per CoinGecko, down 0.8% over 24 hours and nearly flat, minus 0.7%, across the week. Market cap: $1.256 trillion. Volume: $27.3 billion.
The shape of the week matters more than the numbers. BTC absorbed the US and Iran escalation, a wave of long liquidations, and a slide toward $60,000, then stabilized in the low $62,000s ahead of today’s inflation report. Flat after that sequence is not weakness. It is a market that has already sold its fear and is waiting for a reason to do anything else.
The reason arrives today. A cool CPI print revives rat e-cut bets and risk appetite; a hot one sends BTC back to test the $60,000 round number it has been circling for a week. Until the data drops, the $60,000 to $64,000 box is the whole map, and this desk covered the top of that box last week. The box has not changed. The catalyst has a timestamp now.
ETH Stands Alone, XRP Leans on $1 One number stands out on the majors board: Ethereum is the only large cap green on the week, up 0.8% at $1,786. Everything else in the top 10 is red over seven days. When a single major diverges through a storm like this one, it is usually telling you where the next rotation starts, and ETH held that role through last week’s rally too. Watch whether it keeps the crown through the CPI reaction.
XRP is the opposite story. At $1.07, down 5.1% on the week, it keeps drifting toward the round $1.00 after breaking the $1.11 level our XRP coverage flagged as the line between a dip and a top. The break resolved bearish, and $1.00 is now the level the entire XRP conversation compresses into.
Solana slid to $75.05, down 7.7% weekly, still digesting both the macro storm and the BonkDAO drain we covered in this week’s BONK report. Dogecoin sits at $0.07212, and our July prediction page’s warning floor at $0.070 is now two cents of noise away.
HYPE Is the Red Flag of the Week Hyperliquid’s HYPE takes today’s second slot for the ugliest reason: minus 2.9% on the day, minus 10.3% on the week, the worst performance in the top 10, at $63.67 with a $14.2 billion cap. A token built on derivatives-exchange activity underperforming this badly during a volatility spike is counterintuitive; volatility is supposed to be its business. Either traders are pricing something specific, or the token simply carried the most froth into the storm. We have not verified a specific catalyst, and we will not invent one. The chart earns a spot on the watchlist either way: $60 is the round number below, and a bounce back above $67 would retire the concern.
[CHART: BTCUSD daily, July 14. Source: TradingView]
The Numbers That Matter Today BTC: the $60,000 to $64,000 box, CPI as the trigger. ETH: the only green major at $1,786. XRP: $1.00 in sight after losing $1.11. HYPE: worst of the top 10 at minus 10.3% weekly. Total market cap: roughly $2.16 trillion, red but orderly. The data decides the rest today.
FAQ What is the Bitcoin price today? Bitcoin trades at $62,617 as of July 14, 2026, down 0.8% in 24 hours, with a $1.256 trillion market cap ahead of today’s US inflation report.
Why is HYPE falling? HYPE is down 10.3% on the week, the worst in the top 10, at $63.67. No single confirmed catalyst is visible in the data; the move fits broad risk-off pressure hitting the frothiest large caps hardest.
Why is Ethereum up while everything else is down? ETH is the only top-10 major green over seven days, up 0.8% at $1,786, extending the relative strength it showed through last week’s rally and pullback.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are extremely volatile and you can lose your entire stake. Always do your own research.
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Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
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Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
14 July 2026 | 20:08 JPMorgan has lowered its earnings estimates for Circle and Coinbase, arguing that their revised USDC arrangement with Hyperliquid exposes a structural weakness in the stablecoin’s distribution model.
Key Takeaways JPMorgan said the Hyperliquid agreement creates a “prisoner’s dilemma” in which Circle and Coinbase may sacrifice margins to protect USDC distribution. Hyperliquid holds approximately $5.5 billion to $6 billion in stablecoins, with USDC accounting for nearly 94% of the on-chain supply. The frequently cited $160 million figure came from an earlier Compass Point estimate and represents potential reserve yield redirected to Hyperliquid, not a confirmed net loss. Robinhood Chain has already overtaken Hyperliquid in seven-day spot DEX volume despite launching on July 1, showing how quickly competing platforms can establish their own preferred stablecoin rails. Hyperliquid Gains the Yield Without Issuing USDC Under the revised structure, Coinbase becomes the official USDC treasury deployer on Hyperliquid. Circle remains responsible for the technical infrastructure needed to mint, redeem and move USDC across supported networks.
The arrangement preserves USDC as Hyperliquid’s primary collateral and quote asset across its spot, perpetual and other on-chain markets. It also gives the protocol access to most of the income generated by the underlying reserves.
Hyperliquid’s Aligned Quote Asset framework states that deployers share approximately 90% of cost-adjusted reserve yield generated by their supply with the protocol. Aligned assets receive trading advantages including lower taker fees, improved maker rebates and greater volume contribution toward fee tiers.
The payment is not interest distributed directly to USDC holders. It is protocol-level revenue derived from the cash and short-term government securities backing the stablecoin. Hyperliquid captures much of that income in exchange for making USDC the preferred dollar asset across its markets.
That distinction explains why the agreement can strengthen USDC’s utility while weakening its economics for Circle. The stablecoin gains volume, collateral demand and distribution, but its issuer retains a smaller portion of the reserve income attached to those balances.
Why JPMorgan Sees a Prisoner’s Dilemma JPMorgan described the arrangement as a “prisoner’s dilemma” because Circle and Coinbase both benefit from wider USDC adoption but can compete over which company gives more of the economics to major distributors.
If neither company offers favorable terms, a large platform could support another stablecoin or create its own. If one side accepts a lower margin to secure the platform, the other risks losing distribution unless it participates in the concession.
JPMorgan estimates that Hyperliquid holds around $6 billion in USDC, equal to roughly 8% of the token’s circulating supply. At the time of writing, DefiLlama showed approximately $5.5 billion in stablecoins on Hyperliquid L1, with USDC representing 93.87% of the total.
Coinbase previously treated much of the USDC held outside its platform differently from balances held directly on Coinbase. JPMorgan said that classifying Hyperliquid’s USDC as on-platform allows Coinbase to collect the associated reserve income before transferring 90% of the adjusted amount to Hyperliquid.
The structure may still benefit Coinbase strategically. Acting as treasury deployer strengthens its role in minting, redemption, liquidity management and fiat access around one of the largest pools of on-chain dollars. The trade-off is that securing that position requires Coinbase and Circle to give up most of the reserve yield generated there.
The $160 Million Estimate Needs Qualification The estimate that as much as $160 million in annual revenue could move toward Hyperliquid did not originate in JPMorgan’s July report. Compass Point produced the estimate in May, when Hyperliquid held approximately $5 billion to $5.5 billion in USDC.
The figure represented an estimate of reserve income that could be redirected under the yield-sharing arrangement. It should not be treated as a confirmed reduction of the same size in Circle and Coinbase earnings.
The eventual impact depends on several variables: The average amount of USDC held on Hyperliquid Short-term interest rates and the return on USDC reserves The costs deducted before the 90% share is calculated How the income would otherwise have been divided between Circle and Coinbase Additional revenue Coinbase earns from treasury deployment and related services The concern is still material because reserve income dominates Circle’s financial model. In its first-quarter filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Circle reported $652.5 million in reserve income and $405.4 million in distribution and transaction costs.
The Hyperliquid terms add to costs that already consume a substantial portion of the income generated by USDC reserves. JPMorgan consequently sees the agreement as a larger long-term issue for Circle than for Coinbase, which has a broader mix of trading, custody, subscription and infrastructure revenue.
Robinhood Shows How Quickly Distribution Can Shift Hyperliquid is not the only platform gaining leverage over stablecoin providers. Robinhood launched the public mainnet of Robinhood Chain on July 1, only 13 days before the latest DefiLlama comparison.
By July 14, Robinhood Chain had accumulated approximately $161.7 million in DeFi TVL, $327.6 million in stablecoins and $3.9 billion in seven-day spot DEX volume. Hyperliquid L1 recorded approximately $1.31 billion in spot volume over the same period.
Robinhood Chain launched and the numbers are astounding.
We dug into the metrics in this week’s edition of the DefiLlama newsletter.https://t.co/1Hs2HHmxTR pic.twitter.com/FLyJ5XNYgK
— DefiLlama.com (@DefiLlama) July 14, 2026
Robinhood therefore generated nearly three times Hyperliquid’s weekly spot DEX activity despite being less than two weeks old. The comparison is limited to spot trading. Hyperliquid remained substantially larger in its core perpetual-futures market, processing approximately $42.5 billion over seven days compared with $24.5 million on Robinhood Chain.
The quality of Robinhood’s early activity also remains unproven. Its seven-day spot volume was roughly 24 times its TVL, an unusually high turnover rate that may reflect launch activity, short-lived speculation or repeated trading through a relatively small pool of liquidity.
The stablecoin composition is more relevant to JPMorgan’s argument. USDG represented around 68% of Robinhood Chain’s stablecoin supply, while Robinhood Earn uses USDG rather than USDC for its on-chain lending product.
A new distribution platform can therefore build substantial liquidity without making USDC its default dollar asset. That increases the pressure on Circle and Coinbase to offer better economics when negotiating with exchanges, wallets, fintech applications and blockchain operators.
Longer-Term Threat JPMorgan’s argument becomes stronger if USDC distribution continues expanding while Circle’s retained income per dollar in circulation declines. The next Circle and Coinbase earnings reports should show whether distribution costs rise faster than the revenue created by additional USDC balances.
The margin-pressure thesis would gain support if USDC balances on Hyperliquid remain near or above $6 billion, making the yield-sharing concession a recurring cost rather than a temporary arrangement. Disclosures showing reserve income flowing into Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund or being used for HYPE purchases would make the agreement’s economic effect more visible. Continued growth of USDG on Robinhood Chain, or of other regulated stablecoins on competing platforms, would further increase the value of distribution access. For Circle, the clearest financial warning would be distribution expenses rising faster than reserve income, confirming that wider USDC adoption is being achieved at the cost of lower retained margins.
The agreement does not show that USDC is losing relevance. Hyperliquid’s dependence on the stablecoin confirms its importance as trading collateral and on-chain dollar liquidity. The risk is that USDC becomes more widely used while a growing share of the value it generates is captured by the platforms controlling access to users and trading volume.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
Author
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
Noxa's official X account appears to have been hacked; users are advised to stay vigilant against risks.
According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, the official X account of Meme token launch platform Noxa has been reportedly hacked. Community users who interacted with links posted from the account have had their wallets emptied. Users are warned not to connect their wallets, sign any transactions, or engage with any links shared by this account.
Jeremy Allaire Circle CEO. (The Washington Post / Getty Images) Summary
JPMorgan said a new arrangement with Hyperliquid is a near-term revenue headwind for Circle and Coinbase, with a greater long-term threat to Circle's USDC economics. The bank argued the deal exposes a "prisoner's dilemma," encouraging Circle and Coinbase to compete for USDC distribution at the expense of each other's economics. The Wall Street firm lowered earnings estimates for both firms, citing the Hyperliquid changes alongside weaker crypto trading volumes and asset prices.JPMorgan (JPM) lowered its forecasts for Circle Internet (CRCL) and Coinbase (COIN), saying their revamped agreement with Hyperliquid weakens the economics of Circle's USDC and posed a bigger long-term threat to the stablecoin issuer.
The bank said the deal created a "prisoner's dilemma," incentivizing stablecoin issuer Circle and crypto exchange Coinbase to compete for distribution of the dollar-pegged token at the expense of each other's economics.
Hyperliquid, now one of the largest crypto trading venues, holds about $6 billion of USDC, or roughly 8% of the circulating supply, JPMorgan estimated.
"We think the change in the Hyperliquid relationship showcases the challenge for Circle and Coinbase partnership agreements because it can create 'a prisoner’s dilemma' that drive Coinbase and Circle to compete with each other when promoting USDC distribution," analysts led by Kenneth Worthington said in the Tuesday report.
Hyperliquid is one of crypto's fastest-growing trading venues and the leading decentralized perpetual futures exchange. The platform processed more than $150 billion in trading volume in July alone, while its volume relative to Binance climbed to 11.5%, underscoring its growing share of the derivatives market. USDC balances on Hyperliquid have swelled to roughly $6 billion, making it an increasingly important distribution channel for the stablecoin.
Under the new arrangement, Coinbase will classify USDC on Hyperliquid as "on-platform," collecting the income generated by reserves and paying 90% of it to Hyperliquid. JPMorgan estimated Coinbase previously split nearly all of the revenue evenly with Circle.
The bank cut earnings estimates for both companies, citing the Hyperliquid agreement and weaker crypto markets, though it expects higher interest rates to provide some support for USDC-related revenue over the longer term.
USDC has also lost momentum in recent months. Its circulating supply has fallen to about $73 billion from nearly $80 billion in March, part of a broader $10 billion contraction in the stablecoin market since May as crypto trading activity cooled and new regulated rivals chipped away at the dominance of USDC and Tether's USDT.
Japanese investment bank Mizuho said in a report last week that Circle's final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish First National Digital Currency Bank is a positive milestone, but investors may be overestimating its significance.
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
JPMorgan has lowered its earnings forecasts for Circle and Coinbase, warning that a new revenue sharing agreement with Hyperliquid is weakening the economics behind USDC.
The bank said the arrangement creates a “prisoner’s dilemma” that encourages Circle and Coinbase to compete for USDC distribution at the expense of their own revenue. JPMorgan described the deal as an immediate earnings headwind for both companies and a larger long term threat to Circle.
Hyperliquid holds roughly $6 billion in USDC, representing about 8% of the stablecoin’s circulating supply, according to estimates from JPMorgan.
Under the revised agreement, Coinbase classifies USDC held on Hyperliquid as an on platform balance. Coinbase collects the income generated by the reserves backing those tokens and passes 90% of it to Hyperliquid. The company previously shared nearly all of that income evenly with Circle, JPMorgan said.
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“We think the change in the Hyperliquid relationship showcases the challenge for Circle and Coinbase partnership agreements,” analysts led by Kenneth Worthington wrote in a Tuesday report.
The agreement was announced in May as part of Hyperliquid’s updated Aligned Quote Asset framework. Coinbase became the treasury deployer for USDC on the network, while Circle remained responsible for minting, redemptions and crosschain transfer infrastructure.
Circle also staked 500,000 HYPE tokens as part of the arrangement. USDC remains the main collateral asset across Hyperliquid’s spot and perpetual futures markets.
Hyperliquid processed more than $150 billion in trading volume during July, while its volume relative to Binance reached 11.5%, according to JPMorgan. The bank said the platform’s growing share of the crypto derivatives market has made it an increasingly important distribution channel for USDC.
Previous estimates from Compass Point suggested the agreement could redirect between $135 million and $160 million in annual reserve income toward Hyperliquid. The firm estimated that the arrangement could reduce the combined annual earnings of Circle and Coinbase by between $60 million and $80 million.
JPMorgan also cited weaker crypto trading volumes and asset prices in cutting its forecasts for both companies. Higher interest rates could provide some support for USDC reserve income over the longer term.
USDC circulation has fallen to approximately $73 billion from nearly $80 billion in March. The broader stablecoin market has contracted by about $10 billion since May as crypto trading activity weakened and competition from regulated stablecoin issuers increased.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
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The Hyperliquid chain’s total Open Interest reached $11.07 billion on July 13, the highest in 2026. HIP-3 markets, or Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal 3, contributed to $3.69 billion, another record, reported Wu Blockchain in a post on X.
Just a couple of days ago, though, it was reported that the new Ethereum Layer-2, Robinhood Chain, had surpassed Hyperliquid and BNB in daily speculative interest.
Viral memecoin launches like CashCat helped fuel the Robinhood volume, and it is unclear if this enormous volume can be sustained during periods of less memecoin speculation.
Hyperliquid is a market-proven product. Will this be enough for its price trends to improve in July?
The Hyperliquid uptrend remains intact Source: HYPE/USDT on TradingView A bullish swing structure was in place for HYPE. An upward continuation was established when the previous swing high at $59.412 [green] was breached to the upside in May. Since then, the altcoin has set a new high at $76.955.
Using the move from $20.48 to $76.95, a set of Fibonacci retracement levels [orange] was plotted. It showed that the coveted golden pocket for swing traders and investors sat in the $32.56-$42.05 area.
The golden pocket outlines a high-probability trend resumption zone between the 61.8%-78.6% retracement levels. Therefore, in the long run, a correction to this region should offer an investing opportunity.
As things stand, HYPE is a long way from such a massive retracement. The CMF was above +0.05, and the OBV was climbing, to show steady buying pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD signaled waning bullish momentum.
Traders’ call to action- Respect the range Source: HYPE/USDT on TradingView A range formation between $53.3 and $74.6 has been in place since early June. At the time of writing, the Hyperliquid token was trading below the mid-range support at $64.
This signaled a potential drop toward the lower end of the range. The CMF’s -0.14 reading showcased heavy capital outflows. The MACD has formed a bearish crossover below the zero line to signal that downward momentum was gaining strength.
Swing traders can wait for a drop toward $53-$54 before looking to buy. It is also possible that the $60 round-number level might yield a price bounce.
As things stand, traders can wait for this range to break down before they can begin anticipating a correction toward $32.
Final Summary Hyperliquid reached its highest Open Interest of 2026 on Monday. Robinhood Chain’s surge in daily speculative interest recently might not be enough to topple the leading DEX. The higher timeframe HYPE price trends were bullish. For now, the $53.3 and $74.6 levels were the ones swing traders should watch.
Hyperliquid's (@HyperliquidX) HIP-3 markets have gone from a footnote to a dominant force on the platform in a matter of months. HIP-3's share of total Hyperliquid perpetual volume has climbed from roughly 2% at the start of the year to around 50% now, coinciding with growing retail appetite for trading equities onchain.
What Is HIP-3 and Who Is Driving Volume? HIP-3 is a Hyperliquid network upgrade launched in October 2025 that allows permissionless deployment of perpetual futures markets by staking 500,000 $HYPE tokens. The framework has opened the door to 24/7 trading of assets that have historically been locked behind exchange hours and brokerage accounts.
The category is dominated by TradeXYZ, which runs markets like XYZ100 (tracking the Nasdaq-100) and single-stock contracts on names like Nvidia and Tesla, all settled in stablecoin rather than the underlying shares. Open interest surpassed $1.43 billion within months of launch, with tokenized stocks and commodities representing 23 out of the top 30 trading pairs on Hyperliquid.
Open interest across HIP-3 markets grew from roughly $790 million in January 2026 to a peak of $3.2 billion by June, according to Grayscale. Hyperliquid's HIP-3 onchain perpetual futures market has also surpassed $309 billion in cumulative trading volume, highlighting growing adoption for permissionless, around-the-clock derivatives markets.
A Broader Shift in How Retail Traders Access Markets The HIP-3 market's ability to offer round-the-clock exposure to these assets without traditional market hours has been a key factor in attracting volume. For retail traders who want to react to earnings reports or macro events outside of exchange hours, the appeal is straightforward.
The surge in HIP-3 activity sits inside a much larger growth story for Hyperliquid overall. Hyperliquid holds 6.2% of the global market for perpetuals by volume, up from just 4% at the start of 2026, and 70% of the global market for decentralized perpetuals. The platform processed $633 billion in trading volume during Q1 2026 alone.
Seven of Hyperliquid's top ten markets by volume are now tokenized equities or commodity futures rather than traditional cryptocurrency pairs, a sign that the platform's user base is increasingly looking beyond crypto for trading opportunities.
Sources:
The Block: Hyperliquid's HIP-3 markets surge to nearly 50% of perp volume
CoinGecko: Hyperliquid HIP-3 and HIP-4 Explained
FinanceFeeds: Hyperliquid HIP-3 Open Interest Explained
Key Takeaways HYPE has declined more than 2% on Monday, with the token now challenging critical support near the $68.50 trendline Futures Open Interest contracted by over 2% across 24 hours to reach $2.72 billion, accompanied by $2.48 million in liquidated long positions Institutional investors poured $10.36 million into HYPE ETFs during the previous week, marking a ninth uninterrupted week of capital inflows Markets launched under HIP-3 have expanded their share of Hyperliquid perpetual trading volume from 2% to approximately 50% throughout 2026 Critical support rests at the 50-day EMA level of $63.13; a breakdown beneath this threshold may drive prices toward $53.71 Hyperliquid (HYPE) is currently exchanging hands near $65 on Monday, reflecting a decline exceeding 2% as widespread risk aversion across markets weighs on cryptocurrency valuations. This downturn continues the negative price movement observed during the previous week.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran centered around oil tanker navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a flight from risk-oriented assets, with cryptocurrencies caught in the selloff. Alternative tokens such as HYPE have experienced heightened selling pressure as a result.
Derivatives market intelligence from CoinGlass indicates that Open Interest decreased by more than 2% during the last 24-hour period, settling at $2.72 billion. Aggregate liquidation events reached $2.93 million, with positions betting on price increases accounting for $2.48 million of this figure.
The funding rate metric has experienced a pronounced decline to 0.0275%, signaling an increase in traders establishing short positions. This represents a notable departure from the optimistic market positioning observed in prior weeks.
Institutional Capital Continues Flowing In Notwithstanding near-term price weakness, HYPE exchange-traded funds attracted $10.36 million in net inflows throughout the past week. This achievement represents the ninth consecutive week that institutional investment vehicles focused on HYPE have recorded positive capital flows.
Source: SoSoValue Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared an optimistic assessment on July 12, stating that the HYPE chart “is ready to break out upwards” with a price objective of $100. His thesis rests on consistent revenue expansion, a pattern of ascending peaks and troughs, and the asset maintaining position above both its 21-day and 50-day moving average indicators.
The $HYPE chart is super strong.
It's ready to break out upwards, and the next target is going to be $100.
The reasons for the fact that this is the case:
– Constant revenue growth and value accrual to the token.
– Holding above the 21-Day and 50-Day MA's.
– Constant higher… pic.twitter.com/S6AZSY1Ecr
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 12, 2026
From a technical perspective, HYPE is currently challenging a breakout from an important ascending trendline situated around $68.50. The 50-day exponential moving average positioned at $63.13 now represents the nearest support zone requiring monitoring.
The Relative Strength Index has deteriorated below the neutral 50 mark to 48, while the MACD indicator is charting below its signal line. These technical readings collectively suggest diminishing bullish momentum.
A daily candle closure beneath the $63.13 threshold could establish conditions for a move toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at $53.71. Conversely, a price recovery scenario would establish the previous swing high at $75.58 as the initial resistance target.
The protocol’s contribution to aggregate Hyperliquid perpetual futures volume has surged from roughly 2% when 2026 commenced to approaching 50% presently. This expansion correlates with increasing retail trader appetite for onchain equity derivatives products.
TradeXYZ has emerged as the dominant participant within this category, operating markets including XYZ100 (which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index) alongside individual equity perpetuals on companies like Nvidia and Tesla, all settled using stablecoins.
The continuous 24/7 market availability represents a fundamental attraction point—participants can respond to breaking developments at any moment without restriction to traditional market hours.
HYPE exchange-traded funds documented their ninth consecutive week of institutional capital inflows totaling $10.36 million as of the most recent reporting period.
CASHCAT’s market cap briefly surpassed $200 million, rising over 20% in 24 hours.
According to GMGN market data, the Robinhood Chain meme coin CASHCAT briefly exceeded $200 million in market capitalization, and has now retreated to $192 million, posting a more than 20% 24-hour gain with a 24-hour trading volume of $40.3 million. BlockBeats reminds users that meme coins are subject to extreme price volatility, and investors should exercise caution regarding associated risks.
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18 minutes ago
The funding rate of SK Hynix-related contracts on Hyperliquid surged more than 130% within one hour.
Hyperliquid platform’s SK Hynix-linked contracts SKHX and SKHY have seen extremely robust trading activity, with a combined 24-hour trading volume of $1.836 billion, surpassing Bitcoin (BTC) to become the platform’s most active asset by trading volume. SKHX alone notched a 24-hour volume of $1.63 billion and open interest (OI) of $635 million, while SKHY posted a 24-hour volume of $206 million and OI of $101 million. SKHY still trades at a roughly 26% premium to SKHX. Notably, SKHX’s funding rate surged sharply in just one hour: it jumped from +0.0064% to +0.0151%, a rise of over 130%. Concurrently, the contract’s trading volume dipped slightly from $1.663 billion to $1.604 billion, and its open interest fell from $638.6 million to $627.1 million. A sharp spike in funding rates typically signals a rapid rise in bullish sentiment, as long positions flood the market—traders holding long positions face higher costs to maintain their bets, reflecting intensifying long-short battles in SKHX contracts and growing speculative enthusiasm for SK Hynix’s US-listed assets.
18 minutes ago
The United States launched a five-hour continuous air raid on Iran, in retaliation for Iran's bombing of a U.S. military base in Jordan.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it had launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. military air base in Jordan and called on Jordanian citizens to resist the U.S. military presence there. Jordanian authorities said its air defense systems successfully intercepted four Iranian missiles that entered its airspace, and the incident caused no casualties or property damage. In response, U.S. Central Command, with authorization from President Donald Trump, carried out approximately five hours of continuous airstrikes on targets inside Iran. This marked the third consecutive night of large-scale U.S. military strikes against Iran. According to Iranian media reports, multiple targets including the port of Bandar Abbas were struck, with some naval maintenance facilities damaged. Meanwhile, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain high. Trump recently proposed that the U.S. would take responsibility for securing the Strait of Hormuz and planned to impose a 20% fee on goods transiting the waterway, sparking widespread international controversy. Affected by the escalating situation in the Middle East, international oil prices rose nearly 3% at one point, as markets worry that shipping risks in the strait will further exacerbate global energy supply tensions.
CASHCAT’s market cap briefly surpassed $200 million, rising over 20% in 24 hours.
According to GMGN market data, the Robinhood Chain meme coin CASHCAT briefly exceeded $200 million in market capitalization, and has now retreated to $192 million, posting a more than 20% 24-hour gain with a 24-hour trading volume of $40.3 million. BlockBeats reminds users that meme coins are subject to extreme price volatility, and investors should exercise caution regarding associated risks.
18 minutes ago
Global crude oil prices continue to rise, with both U.S. WTI and Brent crude up 3% on the day.
According to Bitget market data, Brent crude oil rose 3.00% intraday to $85.31 per barrel. WTI crude oil rose 3.00% intraday to $80.14 per barrel. Trump posted a statement yesterday saying that the US will immediately resume the blockade of Iran and impose a 20% fee on cargo transportation.
18 minutes ago
Market sources: Samsung is in preliminary discussions regarding a potential stock sale in the U.S.
According to market sources, Samsung is holding preliminary discussions regarding a potential stock sale in the United States.
18 minutes ago
Goldman Sachs: Hong Kong's market has entered the AI era, and equity financing volume is expected to reach a new high this year.
Wang Yajun, Head of Equity Capital Markets for Goldman Sachs Asia (ex-Japan), noted that Hong Kong’s market has entered the AI era, yet major stock indices have not fully reflected the impact of AI-related enterprises. This explains the contrast between this year’s red-hot IPO fundraising and the relatively lackluster performance of secondary market indices. Wang forecasts that Hong Kong’s total equity financing and IPO fundraising scale will both reach new highs in 2026. Since the start of this year, AI has become the most active investment theme in Hong Kong’s stock market: the most actively traded, best-performing, and largest fundraising stocks are all AI-related, though index constituent adjustments lag behind. Regarding AI industry valuations, Wang believes that sustained growth in AI demand will drive continued expansion of capital expenditures on infrastructure such as computing power, chips, and storage, and the industry still has room for growth in capital spending. As China’s AI industrial chain continues to improve, more AI enterprises are expected to list in Hong Kong or on the STAR Market in the second half of the year.
18 minutes ago
The United States launched a five-hour continuous air raid on Iran, in retaliation for Iran's bombing of a U.S. military base in Jordan.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it had launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. military air base in Jordan and called on Jordanian citizens to resist the U.S. military presence there. Jordanian authorities said its air defense systems successfully intercepted four Iranian missiles that entered its airspace, and the incident caused no casualties or property damage. In response, U.S. Central Command, with authorization from President Donald Trump, carried out approximately five hours of continuous airstrikes on targets inside Iran. This marked the third consecutive night of large-scale U.S. military strikes against Iran. According to Iranian media reports, multiple targets including the port of Bandar Abbas were struck, with some naval maintenance facilities damaged. Meanwhile, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain high. Trump recently proposed that the U.S. would take responsibility for securing the Strait of Hormuz and planned to impose a 20% fee on goods transiting the waterway, sparking widespread international controversy. Affected by the escalating situation in the Middle East, international oil prices rose nearly 3% at one point, as markets worry that shipping risks in the strait will further exacerbate global energy supply tensions.
18 minutes ago
Analysis: AI data centers have pushed U.S. electricity prices up by $23 billion, and the costs are likely to continue being borne by residents.
According to a study cited by Fortune, the rapid expansion of AI data centers in the United States has driven a sharp rise in public power costs. PJM Market Monitor, the entity overseeing power grids across 14 U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Midwest states, projects that the additional power demand from data centers will lead to power users bearing roughly $230 billion in extra costs, an impact that will persist through at least the end of 2028. The report notes that while multiple major tech companies have committed to covering the costs of new power infrastructure, since public utility expenses such as transmission lines, substations and grid upgrades are typically shared uniformly by regulators, some costs may still be passed on to residential and general commercial users. The study also points out that some data centers can reduce their power usage during grid peak periods by flexibly adjusting their load, thereby cutting their share of grid costs allocated based on peak load. However, they still consume large volumes of electricity, meaning their actual cost burden may be lower than the strain they exert on the grid. Analysts believe that as AI infrastructure construction continues to accelerate, issues such as power cost allocation mechanisms, data center power pricing and rising residential electricity rates are emerging as key challenges facing U.S. energy regulators.
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Hyperliquid, a decentralized derivatives exchange, saw its total open interest climb to an all-time high of $11.07 billion on July 13, 2026, according to data from DeFiLlama, cited by Wu Blockchain. The platform’s open interest later settled slightly lower at $10.88 billion, but remained near record levels, indicating robust participation in derivatives trading.
Elevated open interest signals strong activityDeFiLlama, which tracks decentralized finance market metrics, reported that Hyperliquid’s open interest reached its peak for the year as traders kept substantial positions open. Open interest reflects the total value of active derivatives contracts that have yet to be settled or closed out.
Analysts noted that open interest levels above $11 billion indicate strong engagement from market participants, despite minor pullbacks after the spike. Open interest, on its own, does not distinguish between the betting direction of traders; it merely highlights the aggregate capital locked into ongoing contracts.
Open interest gauges not only the activity within derivatives markets but also signals broader leveraged exposure across decentralized finance, irrespective of price direction or momentum.
Market observers continue to compare open interest data with factors like trading volume and price movements to assess risk and leverage in the ecosystem.
HIP-3 and RWA markets drive growthWu Blockchain added that HIP-3 markets contributed approximately $3.69 billion to Hyperliquid’s total open interest, setting a new record for that segment on the decentralized exchange. HIP-3 represents a category of perpetual futures tracking multiple assets, expanding the range of products offered on Hyperliquid.
In addition, MSB Intel reported that real-world asset (RWA) open interest on Hyperliquid surged to about $3.6 billion. This milestone put a spotlight on increased demand for tokenized traditional assets in decentralized trading platforms.
Mini dictionary: RWA (Real-World Assets): Tokenized representations of traditional assets such as commodities, securities, or credit products, traded on blockchain-based platforms.
Institutional interest in tokenized asset derivatives is pushing RWA open interest to new highs, with $3.6 billion reached on Hyperliquid and a total platform open interest of $11 billion for 2026.
The expansion in RWA-based derivatives highlights growing appetite for exposure to non-crypto instruments within decentralized finance. However, analysts emphasize the continued need for effective liquidity monitoring and risk controls as volumes expand.
MarketOpen InterestRecord DateTotal (Hyperliquid)$11.07 billionJuly 13, 2026HIP-3$3.69 billionJuly 13, 2026RWA$3.6 billionJuly 13, 2026Technical levels and future outlookCharts show that Hyperliquid open interest has rebounded sharply from early 2026 lows near $5 billion, forming higher highs and higher lows throughout the year. Analysts point to resistance zones between $11 billion and $12 billion, with a breakout above this level potentially opening the door to targets near $13 billion to $15 billion. The historical peak region between $15 billion and $16 billion also serves as a reference for future movements.
On the downside, initial support lies between $9 billion and $9.5 billion, while a further decline could find stability near $6 billion to $7 billion. These key technical areas may influence trader behavior and leverage deployment across Hyperliquid’s markets.
Hyperliquid’s recent surge in open interest and record-setting performance in both HIP-3 and RWA markets demonstrate the evolving structure and growing sophistication of decentralized derivatives trading in 2026.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has stated that cryptocurrency volumes have increased by 20% to 30% from previous lows, suggesting a renewed enthusiasm in the market. He highlighted that smaller positive developments are contributing to this upswing. Novogratz’s remarks align with recent data indicating a 19% rise in centralized exchange volumes, a notable growth over four consecutive months. Additionally, Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum Layer 2 network, reported significant usage, surpassing Hyperliquid’s activity on its launch day. This surge in activity on new platforms like Robinhood Chain reflects a shift in liquidity, potentially affecting the dynamics within the crypto market.
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Key Takeaways Novogratz’s statement suggests a positive shift in crypto market sentiment, with volumes increasing significantly from recent lows. Robinhood Chain’s debut highlights a migration of liquidity toward emerging networks, surpassing established platforms like Hyperliquid. Market participants appear encouraged by these developments, indicating a shift from speculative interest to practical use cases. What to Watch Observers will be keen to see if the increase in volumes sustains and influences the broader market, particularly in relation to Hyperliquid’s performance. Any further announcements from major platforms like Robinhood or strategic partnerships involving Hyperliquid could provide additional insights. Markets will also watch for shifts in sentiment and volume that could impact the pricing of Hyperliquid, especially as the year progresses toward the end of 2026.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 39% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 4% — — View market → January 1 2027 68.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 9.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.5% — — View market →
Financials Crypto Sector protocols, such as Hyperliquid’s $HYPE, are reportedly outperforming Consumer & Culture Sector tokens. This development is attributed to strong fundamentals, including real cash flows, stablecoins, tokenization, and increased blockchain adoption. Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetuals exchange, has emerged as a leader in on-chain derivatives, benefiting from fees and a robust token buyback program. The protocol’s success is further bolstered by institutional interest and strategic partnerships, including Circle’s investment and integration with USDC on its HyperEVM platform.
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Key Takeaways Market activity suggests that $HYPE’s performance is consistent with a broader trend favoring financial sector tokens with strong cash flow fundamentals. Current pricing indicates a moderate increase in the probability of Hyperliquid reaching $100 by the end of 2026, suggesting positive investor sentiment. The financial sector’s focus on real yield and tokenization appears to be driving market rewards over consumer-focused narratives. What to Watch Watch for further institutional involvement, such as new partnerships or investments, which could support a YES outcome for Hyperliquid reaching $100. Potential risks include regulatory challenges or security breaches that could impact sentiment negatively. Developments in blockchain technology adoption and stablecoin integration will also be key indicators for the protocol’s future performance.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 39% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 4% — — View market → January 1 2027 68.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 9.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.5% — — View market →
Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets have experienced a significant increase in perpetual futures market volume, now accounting for nearly 50% of the protocol’s total perp volume. This marks a substantial rise from roughly 2% at the beginning of 2026. The surge is primarily driven by the onchain activity in real-world assets, including tokenized U.S. equities and commodities. With 23 of the top 30 Hyperliquid pairs by open interest, the growth reflects a shift towards 24/7 access to traditional assets, especially during periods of geopolitical volatility when legacy markets are closed. Market participants are increasingly favoring HIP-3’s framework for its ability to offer continuous exposure to these assets.
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Key Takeaways The increase in HIP-3’s market share appears consistent with growing interest in onchain access to tokenized real-world assets. Hyperliquid’s recent performance suggests market participants are rotating from altcoins to tokenized stocks and commodities. The rise in onchain stock activity may indicate a longer-term trend toward integrating traditional financial assets into blockchain ecosystems. What to Watch The market will be closely monitoring if Hyperliquid can sustain or further increase its market share in perpetual futures. Key indicators include announcements of partnerships or technological advancements that could enhance Hyperliquid’s offerings. Additionally, developments in geopolitical events or regulatory changes impacting real-world asset tokenization could significantly influence market sentiment and pricing, potentially affecting Hyperliquid’s trajectory towards its $100 price target by the end of 2026.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 39% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 4% — — View market → January 1 2027 68.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 9.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.5% — — View market →
Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets have surged to nearly 50% of the protocol’s perpetual futures volume, reflecting a significant shift towards on-chain activity in tokenized traditional assets such as U.S. stocks, commodities, and indices. As of July 12, 2026, the HIP-3 markets have reached an open interest of $3.68 billion, with cumulative volume surpassing $309 billion since the upgrade’s launch in October 2025. This growth underscores the increasing appeal of non-crypto assets in the crypto derivatives markets, as they now dominate seven of Hyperliquid’s top ten volume markets. The trend challenges centralized exchanges and traditional finance infrastructure by attracting more participants towards decentralized avenues.
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Key Takeaways The surge in Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 market volume suggests a growing interest in on-chain access to tokenized traditional assets. Non-crypto assets are now predominant in Hyperliquid’s top volume markets, indicating a shift in the focus of crypto derivatives. Market pricing implies that the increased activity could support scenarios where Hyperliquid’s value continues to rise, consistent with increased YES outcomes. What to Watch Future developments could further influence Hyperliquid’s market trajectory. Announcements of major partnerships or technological advancements by Hyperliquid could be supportive of YES scenarios, potentially driving the asset closer to the $100 mark by the end of 2026. Conversely, any reports of security issues or regulatory challenges could suggest scenarios leading to a decline in market confidence. Market participants will be closely monitoring these factors and their potential impacts on Hyperliquid’s pricing trends.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 39% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 4% — — View market → January 1 2027 68.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 9.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.5% — — View market →
At press time, XRP was trading at $1.06, down 3.53% in the last 24 hours and 7.54% in the past week. This made it the second-biggest loser among the top ten cryptocurrencies during that period, trailing only Hyperliquid (HYPE), which is down 6.55% in the past day.
Key factors that influenced the XRP price todaySeveral factors are to blame for this decline, the biggest being a broader market downturn as investors anticipate inflation-induced interest rate hikes. A week ago, Iran re-ignited its conflict with the US after attacking three commercial vessels off the coast of Oman. This led to the collapse of the June 17 peace memorandum, with both nations resuming strikes against each other.
As a result, oil prices are now up over 8-9% in the past 24 hours – something that typically renews macro inflation fears.
Source: oilprice.com
Notably, the US Federal Reserve attributed part of the inflation to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom at its June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Just today, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that if tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading is high, the Fed could be forced to hike interest rates.
FED AT A CROSSROADS: RATE HIKE BACK ON THE TABLE
Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that another hot core inflation reading could force policymakers to consider raising interest rates soon.
While the US economy remains resilient, persistent price pressures from tariffs,…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) July 13, 2026 Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh remains slightly positive, arguing that AI could eventually boost economic efficiency, thereby creating a deflationary force in the long term.
Even more, today XRP price broke below the critical $1.07 Fibonacci support, which it had been holding for 158 consecutive days. This further fueled selling pressure, with long liquidations over the past 24 hours totaling $6.67 million, according to CoinGlass.
Technical levels to watch forWith the $1.07 price now acting as the new overhead resistance, the next support levels are the $1.00 psychological floor and the 18.75% Fibonacci level at $0.9980. The final major support line after that is the 12.50% macro retracement level at $0.7925. One analyst, however, has posted evidence of a potential 60,000% gain from a historical perspective.
Ironically, today is the 3rd anniversary of the “XRP Victory Day.” But while the community celebrates the landmark SEC ruling, selling pressures continue to overwhelm local bullish sentiment.
Story Ends Here
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