Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem describe a broad-based Gold bull market in 2026, driven by ETFs, futures and options positioning. They highlight strong physical ETF inflows, near-record futures exposure by money managers and a structurally bullish options skew. The report stresses that multiple independent demand channels are reinforcing each other, supporting a constructive stance on Gold over the medium term.

Bullish signals across all channels"Gold has entered a new phase of its 2026 bull run, one defined less by speculative momentum and more by broad-based, structural conviction across every category of market participant. What began as a geopolitical shock, evolved over the following months into something far more durable: a synchronised build-up of physical, futures, and options exposure that now spans retail investors, professional money managers, and derivatives traders alike."

"In August, gold ETFs registered a substantial 201 tonnes of net inflows, marking the third-largest monthly addition on record in tonnage terms after now famous world events: February 2009 and the stimulus package announced by the newly inaugurated Obama administration, and March 2020 with the start of the lockdown for Covid globally. This month's inflow surpassed the strong inflows recorded in March 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and in September 2012 after the Federal Reserve's announcement of QE3."

"In notional exposure terms (contracts x price x contract size), money managers' net positioning reached the second-largest long exposure on record, behind only January 2026, when gold broke through $5,400/oz to an all-time high. This time, with prices roughly $1,000/oz lower, the scale of the dollar exposure is even more striking: it is no longer simply a price story."

"Overall, investors appear to be pricing near-term uncertainty via puts while steadily building call exposure further out the curve, consistent with a constructive medium-term outlook for gold."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight that central banks, led by China and Poland, continued net Gold purchases in July, supporting structural demand despite a slower pace than last year. They add that Gold prices rose over 2% after weaker US employment data and comments from Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller suggesting openness to holding rates steady if inflation behaves.

Official demand and Fed rhetoric support"Central banks continued to add to gold reserves in July, reporting net purchases of 23 tonnes, according to World Gold Council data. Emerging market central banks remained the main buyers, led by China and Poland. China's central bank extended its buying streak to 21 consecutive months, adding 20 tonnes."

"Although central bank buying has slowed compared to a year ago, official sector demand continues to provide support for the gold market. Ongoing reserve diversification efforts among emerging economies should help sustain structural demand, even if purchases moderate from recent highs."

"Gold prices rose more than 2% on Thursday following a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report on Wednesday. Comments from US Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller, suggesting he is open to keeping rates on hold at the next FOMC meeting (assuming no surprises on the inflation front), provided an additional boost."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that upcoming US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) and a renewed hawkish Fed tone are critical for Gold, with prices near CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) selling thresholds around $4,300/oz. Their simulations show further declines toward $4,200–$4,100/oz could push CTA positioning close to flat, though they see limited material downside longer term as the precious metals backdrop improves.

Gold nears key CTA sell triggers"Economic data becomes increasingly important for precious metals, with gold at risk of CTA selling."

"Non-farm payrolls this Friday will be the next piece of data with keen interest for precious metals given the renewed hawkish tone from the Fed and the latest escalation in the energy market."

"Price reaction may be more prone to the downside on potential beats in the data with gold nearing some CTA selling levels near $4,300/oz and our pricing simulations suggesting a further downward trend toward $4200-$4100/oz would see positioning reduced back to near flat into next week."

"Hike pricing has increased to over two hikes in 2027 again, and we have argued the recent rally in the yellow metal was too early due to these lingering inflation concerns."

"However, looking forward, we do not anticipate material downside as the landscape for precious metals has improved amid a renewed dollar debasement theme, while Fed hikes remain far from certain."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold (XAU/USD) resumed its decline on Tuesday, following a flat performance on Monday, reaching fresh two-week lows at $4,375 so far, posting a nearly 7% decline from last week’s peak, near $4,700. Precious metals are struggling this week as hawkish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole summit on Friday provided a fresh boost to the USD.

Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the US Dollar has “recovered most of yesterday’s pullback” as policy expectations remain firmly skewed toward further tightening. They also highlight that “Fed funds futures price in 67% odds of a 25bps hike on September 16 and imply 60bps of tightening over the next twelve months,” with market “pricing [set to] remain elevated into the September meeting.”

In their view, however, “August CPI on September 11” will be the “decisive test” to see whether those rate expectations – and the Dollar’s recovery – can be sustained.

Technical Analysis: Next downside target is at $4,315

XAU/USD trades at $4,378, with momentum indicators in the daily chart entering bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing levels below the key 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped below zero, pointing to increasing downside pressure.

Immediate support is seen at the mid-August lows between $ 4,310 and $4,330. Further down, the August 6 low, near $4,225, would come into view. On the topside, previous support at the $4,450 area has now turned resistance and is likely to test rallies, ahead of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,530 and last week's highs, near $4,700.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The price of Gold’s 3% Warsh-driven selloff has put Crédit Agricole’s $5,000 year-end forecast to a tougher test, but the bank’s debasement thesis remains intact. The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) ended Friday around $4,457 after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech triggered the sharpest setback of the recent rally.

Gold fell 2.99% on Friday and is now almost $240 below August’s $4,696 high, although bullion still gained more than 10% over the month.

Warsh warned that the Fed still had “work to do” unless inflation moved convincingly towards 2%, sending September rate-hike expectations sharply higher and pushing the Dollar up. Gold subsequently suffered a heavy rate-driven selloff.

That move cuts directly across the near-term argument behind Crédit Agricole’s bullish call, but not necessarily the structural one.

The bank says gold has become “one of the key beneficiaries” of efforts by Washington to restrain long-dated Treasury yields, which worsened “the risk-reward trade-off for UST investors” and increased bullion’s appeal as a safe haven.

Crédit Agricole argues that these policy moves have “fanned US inflation fears and lowered US real yields”, strengthening gold’s role as a currency-debasement hedge.

It also sees geopolitics feeding the same trend, with the weaponisation of the Dollar through sanctions encouraging renewed reserve diversification.

“We remain long XAU/USD as a trade idea,” the bank says, adding that it continues to forecast gold at $5,000 by year-end with further gains in 2027.

Image: Gold price in US Dollars one-month chart The chart shows gold rallied from around $4,025 to nearly $4,700 before Friday’s collapse took it back towards its rising 20-day moving average.

We recently highlighted the return of ETF and futures buyers to gold, while BofA’s separate $5,000 forecast sits on a longer 2027 horizon.

Crédit Agricole’s call is more demanding.

From $4,457, a year-end move to $5,000 requires roughly 12% upside.

Warsh has made that path harder, but the bank’s forecast was always built on fiscal, Treasury and de-dollarisation risks as much as Fed easing.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

TD Securities’ Bart Melek notes that Gold has rallied sharply as recent U.S. Dollar weakness and concerns over Fed credibility and Treasury bond-market intervention drive fresh long positioning. Worries about America’s fiscal situation are reviving the USD debasement trade and may continue to support Gold, although a move toward TD Securities’ $5,350/oz target is still considered premature.

Fresh longs chase debasement trade"Traders added to gold exposure as the recent U.S. Dollar weakness, Fed Credibility and Treasury Bond Intervention concerns come into focus."

"Worries about America's fiscal situation are once again resurrecting the USD debasement narrative, which, in turn, is energizing gold bugs."

"Based on Treasury Dept statements, market participants believe the government bond market interference may get even more aggressive. At this stage, gold may continue to respond to the weaker USD."

"A move to our $5,350/oz target is a little premature for now."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold (XAU/USD) extends gains on Friday, with bulls aiming for a retest of the $4,600 resistance area, the top of the last six months' trading range. Precious metals are gaining momentum, favoured by a sharp US Dollar selloff, following the announcement of a US Treasury plan to boost liquidity to repurchase long-term securities.

Rabobank analysts observe that “normally, lower Treasury yields weaken the currency through the interest-rate channel,” but this episode appears different. “This time, gold and crypto also rallied, suggesting concern about fiscal credibility and the perceived management of borrowing costs,” says the bank. Against that backdrop, the experts wonder whether “the end-result will be unchanged long-term yields, but a weaker dollar,” underscoring a potential shift in how markets are pricing US risks.

Technical Analysis: Bullish momentum improves above the 200-day SMA

XAU/USD trades at $4,582, retaining a bullish near-term bias although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching overbought levels in most timeframes. The precious metal has breached the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a very popular indicator among traders, but the daily chart shows RSI right at the 70 level, which hints at a stretched rally.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, with the histogram printing wider green bars, which suggests that dips are likely to be bought.

Bulls are focused on the horizontal cap near $4,590 (May 29 highs). Above here, the $4700 psychological level and May's top at $4.4773 emerge as the next targets, although a bit far away for today.

On the downside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,514 defends the bullish structure. A bearish reaction below that level would expose the previous top, at $4,450, and the August 14 low, near $4,310.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

TL;DR: Gold surged 3.7% to $4,495 after a Treasury buyback shock sent long-end yields and the Dollar tumbling — a real-yield move that survived hawkish FOMC minutes and now puts a break above $4,600 within reach of $5,000.

Treasury Buyback Shock Cracks Long Yields Gold’s path toward $5,000 has become more credible after Wednesday’s Treasury buyback shock triggered a sharp reversal across US yields and Dollar, giving bullion precisely kind of real-rate backdrop needed to extend its medium-term recovery. Gold surged around 3.7% to $4,495 on August 19, its strongest level since early June, while 30-year Treasury yield dropped from this week’s near-two-decade high above 5.33% to around 5.20% and 10-year yield retreated from around 4.75% to 4.65%. Dollar Index simultaneously slid roughly 0.8% to a fresh three-month low near 98.85. Importantly, Gold rose alongside equities and Bitcoin rather than in isolation, pointing to falling real yields and weaker Dollar—not classic risk aversion—as dominant transmission mechanism.

Catalyst was Treasury Department’s unexpected decision to at least double maximum size of long-dated debt buybacks, from $2bn to at least $4bn, targeting 10–20 year and 20–30 year sectors from September 9 through November 4. Actual enlarged operations are still weeks away, yet bond market repriced immediately. That reaction highlights how stretched long end had become after persistent selling pressure. Markets effectively front-ran future liquidity support and relief to duration pressure, driving yields lower before Treasury had purchased a single additional bond.

Hawkish Fed Minutes Couldn’t Reverse the Move More strikingly, rates move survived release of more hawkish-than-expected July FOMC minutes. Several participants favored an immediate hike, many saw further tightening as likely if inflation failed to fall, and some questioned whether financial conditions were sufficiently restrictive.

That makes Gold’s move more significant. Bullion didn’t need a dovish Fed to break higher — the Treasury market did the work instead. Duration repricing was powerful enough to overwhelm a Fed message that, in isolation, should have supported yields and the Dollar.

Worth noting: the minutes themselves reflect a Committee with more hawks than the 9-3 vote alone suggested, though the July meeting is now several weeks stale relative to this week’s developments.

This Was a Real-Yield Move, Not a Debasement Trade Breakeven inflation data provide clearest evidence for underlying mechanism. 10-year breakeven inflation stayed around 2.30% on both August 18 and August 19, even as nominal yields dropped sharply.

With inflation expectations unchanged, decline in nominal yields translated primarily into lower real yields—the more direct textbook support for Gold. That also argues against interpreting Wednesday’s move primarily through currency-debasement lens. Fed minutes were hardly signaling accommodation, inflation expectations did not jump, and identifiable catalyst was Treasury-driven compression in long-duration yields.

Nothing in Aug 19 price action requires a debasement explanation. For now, Gold’s rally is better explained by a specific real-yield shock.

Dollar Breakdown Confirms Gold’s Reversal Dollar chart is reinforcing same story. DXY has broken decisively below 99.41, 38.2% retracement of 95.55–101.80 rebound, strengthening case that advance from 95.55 to 101.80 completed as a three-wave corrective move.

Further decline is favored while 55-day EMA near 100.08 caps recovery, with 97.93, 61.8% retracement, next downside objective.

Gold and Dollar are therefore confirming each other from opposite directions: Gold is breaking medium-term resistance just as DXY is a key near term support. A move in DXY through 97.93 would add further support to Gold’s rally.

Gold 4,600 Is Gateway to $5,000 Gold’s own technical structure has shifted significantly. Larger fall from 5,598.75 increasingly looks to have completed as a triangle at 3,942.43. Daily MACD bullish divergence, break above 55-day EMA near 4,272, and this week’s clean break of descending medium-term trend line all strengthening reversal case.

Near-term outlook stays bullish while 4,324.23 support holds. Next decisive test is resistance cluster between 4,575.31 (38.2% retracement of 5,598.75–3,942.43 decline) and 4,604.74 (61.8% projection of 3,995.82–4,449.73 from 4,324.23).

A clean break of 4,575–4,605 zone would open 161.8% projeciton at 4,778.14 first, followed by 61.8% retracement at 4,966.14—effectively putting $5,000 directly into medium-term view.

Watch 30-Year Yield First, 10-Year Second Rates remain key confirmation. 30-year yield at 5.18% should be watched first, because Treasury buyback impact is concentrated toward long end and this maturity has led latest reversal. Sustained break below 5.18 would indicate duration repricing still has room to run.

10-year support around 4.59% is confirmation level. If 30-year breaks lower while 10-year holds 4.59, move would remain concentrated in long end—still Gold-positive, but less powerful for Dollar. A break of both would signal broader yield compression and strengthen case for DXY extending toward 97.93 while Gold challenges 4,600.

Final check is breakevens. If nominal yields continue falling while inflation expectations stay flat or ease, real yields would compress further and preserve cleanest bullish setup for Gold. If breakevens instead begin rising sharply, story would shift toward inflation repricing and become less straightforward. Track T10YIE/T30YIE alongside the yield levels themselves, not price in isolation.

For now, signal is unusually coherent: long yields are breaking lower, Dollar is breaking support, real yields are compressing and Gold has cleared its medium-term downtrend. $5,000 is not there yet, but decisive break above 4,600 would make it far more than a distant target.

Key Takeaways Gold surged 3.7% to $4,495 after the Treasury unexpectedly doubled its long-dated debt buyback size, triggering an immediate repricing in long-end yields. The move survived hawkish July FOMC minutes, confirming duration repricing, not Fed dovishness, is driving Gold’s rally. Flat 10-year breakevens around 2.30% alongside falling nominal yields point to a real-yield mechanism, not a currency-debasement trade. The DXY has broken below 99.41 support, confirming Gold’s reversal from the opposite direction and opening a path toward 97.93. A break above the 4,575-4,605 resistance cluster would open 4,778.14 and then 4,966.14, putting the $5,000 level within medium-term view.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,395 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal extends the rally as cooling US inflation data has dampened expectations for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike. 

The US Census Bureau revealed on Friday that US Retail Sales declined by 0.6% MoM in July. This figure followed a rise of 0.2% in June and came in softer than the 0.1% expected. On an annual basis, Retail Sales increased 5.0% in July versus a rise of 6.8% (revised from 6.7%).

This report added to evidence that inflationary pressure is gradually easing after last week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. This, in turn, weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and underpins the USD-denominated commodity price.  

Money markets have priced in nearly a 33.1% chance of a September Fed hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. It’s worth noting that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, boosting its investment appeal. 

On the other hand, persistent tensions in the Middle East might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi called on the US to “accept the reality of defeat and stop indulging in delusions” after US President Donald Trump suggested that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States.” 

On Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that there were “no negotiations currently taking place between Tehran and Washington.” Araghchi added that the US must agree to Iran’s conditions in order for shipping to resume through the waterway.

Gold outlook stays constructive as Fed hike expectations fade and ETF demand returnsAnalysts at Commerzbank argue that the backdrop for bullion remains supportive, noting that, “as we expect the Fed not to raise interest rates, the gold price therefore still has further upside potential.” They caution that the path higher is unlikely to be smooth, pointing out that “the fact that this will not happen in a straight line is illustrated by the price fall since yesterday to USD 4,320 per troy ounce.” At the same time, Commerzbank highlights that “another positive factor for the price of gold is the renewed buying interest from ETF investors,” which they see as reinforcing the constructive medium-term outlook for the metal.

Technical Analysis: The positive tone of Gold remains intactIn the daily chart, XAU/USD holds just above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and comfortably over the 20-day Bollinger middle band near, keeping the near-term bias constructive while these layers of trend support remain intact. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 64.09 leans toward bullish but not yet overbought territory, suggesting buyers still have room to probe higher levels within the prevailing range.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the upper Bollinger band at $4,480, where recent volatility extremes are likely to attract profit-taking. On the downside, the immediate floor is defined by the 100-day SMA at $4,385.85, with a deeper corrective cushion emerging around the Bollinger middle band at roughly $4,195; a break below that area would expose the lower band support near $3,905.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

RBC's price assumptions put gold at an average $5,250 an ounce in 2027 and $5,500 in 2028, while JPMorgan sees evidence that buyers are returning after the market established support near $4,000.
The Gold price in US Dollars has begun to recover from its mid-year correction, and two bank research frameworks point to a market that is consolidating rather than ending its longer-term advance.

Latest gold market data: XAU/USD traded at $4,351.05 an ounce at 11:56 BST on 14 August 2026, down 0.17% on the day but 7.34% higher over one month.

Gold remained 6.43% lower over three months and 13.48% lower over six months, yet it was still 30.65% above its level a year earlier.

Gold price performance over one month to 14 August 2026.

RBC's Gold Standard comparable tables assume an average $4,732 for 2026, rising to $5,250 in 2027 and $5,500 in 2028.

The bank's long-term assumption is lower at $4,000, giving the forecast a pronounced medium-term peak rather than an indefinitely rising line.

From current spot, the 2027 average is roughly 21% higher and the 2028 assumption about 26% higher.

These are annual averages used in company valuation work, not year-end targets, so gold would not need to finish either year at precisely those levels.

JPMorgan sees buyers returning above $4,000
JPMorgan's volatility research supplies the market mechanism behind the upside case.

“The fundamental view remains on the upside in the long term, as we continue to see strong inflows from central banks with accelerated buying on the dip,” the bank said.

That official-sector thesis has support beyond the research note: World Gold Council data show reported central-bank reserves rising by a net 41 tonnes in May.

JPMorgan also sees a change in investor behaviour after July's narrow trading range.

“As gold prices are finding the floor at 4000 and trading within a tight 5% range over the whole of July, the first signs of buyers winning over sellers are starting to show,” it said.

Retail demand is part of that turn.

“We are starting to see retail investors warming up to gold again,” JPMorgan said, pointing to renewed call-option interest in the GLD exchange-traded fund.

Gold price performance in 2026 to 14 August.

The two banks are not making identical calls.

RBC supplies a multi-year price deck, while JPMorgan identifies positioning and volatility signals around a $4,000 support area.

Together they describe a bullish medium-term case with real drawdown risk: the long-run floor is well below RBC's projected 2028 peak, but central-bank buying and returning investor demand can keep the recovery alive before that normalisation arrives.

Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Gold price (XAU/USD) registers gains of over 1% on Wednesday as US inflation data aligns with estimates, easing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) task of further tightening monetary policy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues its downward trajectory. The XAU/USD trades above $4,400 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,362.

XAU/USD rallies after US inflation cools, easing September hike fearsBullion extended its gains as investors speculate that the Fed will not raise rates at its September meeting, following July’s report. On Tuesday, money markets priced in a 52% chance of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting. But the dip in inflation shifted the odds to 60% that the US central bank will keep rates steady, according to Prime Terminal data.

The Fed has a 73% chance of raising rates in December, with three inflation reports before the December 9 meeting.

July’s CPI came in at 3.5% YoY, down from 3.6%, while core CPI also edged lower from 2.6% to 2.5% YoY, as revealed by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). Even though Oil prices rose nearly 24% in July, gasoline prices declined for the second straight month.

However, geopolitics continued to weigh on the economy, and if negotiations between the US and Iran failed to reach common ground to end the conflict, energy prices could jump again, threatening to halt the disinflation process in the US.

According to Al-Mayadeen, an Iranian political and security source said that the Strait of Hormuz remained closed and that Tehran hasn’t changed its policy.

US President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social account that “The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!” It's a belief that isn't backed up by the facts on the waterway. At the same time, CNN reported that US embassies in the Middle East would continue to work with reduced staff amid the Iran war.

On Thursday, traders' eyes will be on the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July and Initial Jobless Claims data. If the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rises, it could increase downside risks to the labour market, which could push the Unemployment Rate higher.

XAU/USD price forecast: Gold climbs back above $4,400, eyes on $4,500Gold price seems to be gaining traction as it clears the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,388, potentially opening the door to further upside. Momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers are gaining traction. Hence, the path of least resistance is upward in the short term.

XAU/USD's first resistance would be the $4,450 psychological level. A breach of it will expose the 200-day SMA exactly at the psychological $4,500 mark. A daily close above the latter could pave the way to challenge the $5,000 milestone.

On the flip side, if Gold falls below the low of the day (LOD) at $4,362, it opens the door to a deeper pullback. The next support is $4,300, followed by the July 6 high at $4,202. If this level fails, the next support levels are the 50-day SMA at $4,150 and $4,100.

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Gold rose to 4,400 USD per ounce on Tuesday, reaching a two-month high. Demand for the precious metal is growing rapidly, even amid heightened inflation risks and expectations of higher interest rates driven by elevated oil prices.

Chinese institutional investors continue to build positions in gold as a defensive asset amid heightened volatility in other markets. China’s gold-backed ETFs are recording their longest run of inflows in months.

The People’s Bank of China is also supporting the market. In July, the regulator increased its gold reserves by approximately 20 tonnes, following an increase of around 15 tonnes in June – the largest monthly addition since October 2023.

At the same time, uncertainty persists around a potential US–Iran agreement that could end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are also awaiting key US inflation data this week, which could shift expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.

Technical analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around the 4,341 USD level and, following an upside breakout, moved higher to 4,435 USD. A consolidation range is now forming below this level. A move lower towards 4,370 USD is expected next, with a possible extension to 4,340 USD. A further rise towards 4,575 USD is anticipated as the local upside target. The MACD indicator signals the early stages of bearish momentum, with its signal line above the centre line at recent highs and beginning to turn downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market broke above the 4,371 USD level and moved higher to 4,435 USD, followed by a correction to test 4,371 USD from above. A broad consolidation range is forming around 4,371 USD. A move higher towards 4,460 USD is expected, followed by a decline to 4,371 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.

ConclusionGold has rallied to a two-month high, driven by robust demand from Chinese institutional investors and the People’s Bank of China’s continued reserve accumulation. Despite rising inflation risks and expectations of higher interest rates, the metal’s appeal as a defensive asset has strengthened amid market volatility. Uncertainty over a potential US–Iran agreement and the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz, along with upcoming US inflation data, continues to keep markets on edge. Technically, gold may see a short-term pullback towards 4,340–4,370 USD before potentially resuming its uptrend towards 4,575 USD. The metal’s near-term direction will depend on geopolitical developments and US monetary policy expectations.

Gold resumes advance on Friday after bulls paused previous day and hit new seven- high ($4371), on track for the biggest weekly gain since the third week of January.

Disappointing US July labor data on Friday contributed to fading expectations for Fed rate hike in September that further boosted demand for the yellow metal, although, markets await release of US inflation report for July (due next week) to get more details about the monetary policy near-term outlook.

Fresh gains broke through important barrier at $4304 (Fibo 38.2% of $4889/$3942 descend) with weekly close above this level to confirm bullish signal and further strengthen near-term structure.

Bulls cracked next barrier at $4358 (daily Ichimoku cloud top) although may take a breather here, due to stretched daily studies and partial profit-taking at the end of the week, before resuming towards targets at target at $4390 (100DMA); $4400 (round-figure) and $4416 (50% retracement).

Dips should be limited and ideally contained by broken Fibo 38.2% barrier, to keep bulls intact.

Res: 4358; 4371; 4390; 4416
Sup: 4304; 4230; 4204; 4175

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

Gold (XAU/USD) resumes its bullish trend on Friday, after a brief consolidation on Thursday, to reach fresh three-week highs above $4,300, with bulls aiming for mid-June highs in the $4,380 area. The precious metal is on track for its strongest weekly performance since January, with a nearly 7% gain, although further appreciation is likely to depend on the outcome of July’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due later in the day.

The market consensus forecasts a net increase of 80K payrolls, from 57K in June, although analysts from some of the world’s major commercial banks are keeping a cautious view.

Deutsche Bank experts are anticipating a more modest improvement in today’s labour market report, with a “slight uptick in headline (+65k forecast vs. +57k previously). They note that such an outcome “would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports,” underscoring a gradual cooling in hiring momentum rather than a sharp deterioration.

Technical Analysis: Gold confirms a trend shift

XAU/USD trades at $4,315.19, keeping a constructive near‑term bias after breaking the downward trendline resistance from April highs earlier this week. Relative Strength Index (RSI) studies highlight overstretched levels on intraday charts, although the daily chart shows room for further appreciation, at 67. The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) keeps trending higher, reinforcing the bullish view.

Above $4,300, the next hurdle lies at the June 15 and 17 highs in the mentioned $4,380 area. Further up, the late-May lows just ahead of $4,600 will come into focus. Supports are at Thursday's low of $4,223, ahead of the broken trendline, now around $4,050, and the July 31 and August 3 lows, around the $4,000 level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight a sharp rebound in Gold as easing Middle East tensions weighed on Oil and US Treasury yields, softening the US Dollar. Technical buying and short covering accelerated once resistance broke, while central bank demand from the Bank of Korea added support. Near-term momentum is mildly bullish, with key resistance at 4333 and 4393 and support at 4160 and 4077.

Gold breakout on softer yields"Gold rose sharply overnight as easing Middle East tensions drove oil prices lower while US Treasury yields and USD eased. Market expectations for Fed to hike in Sep has eased. About 55% probability priced (vs. 66% a week ago). The sharp move in gold accelerated after prices cleared recent resistance, triggering technical buying and short covering."

"Gold’s strength suggests investors are increasingly pricing a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, a normalisation of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, lower real interest rates and a softer USD."

"News that the Bank of Korea is preparing to purchase domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years and that they had recently begun buying gold ETF may also have provided a modest sentiment boost, although the scale and timing of its purchases remain unclear."

"Near-term momentum has improved, with Friday’s upcoming US payrolls report now key to whether the decline in yields, USD and gold’s breakout can be sustained."

"Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI rose to near overbought conditions. Resistance at 4333 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4393 (100 DMA). Support at 4160 (50 DMA), 4077 (21 DMA)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold is extending the previous big breakout, briefly testing the $4,300 level for the first time in seven weeks in the Asian session on Thursday.  

Gold cheers Strait of Hormuz reopening hopesNothing seems to have changed fundamentally for Gold since a day ago, as hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are coming to life after Iran said on Wednesday that it is close to finalizing a proposed framework for commercial shipping through the Strait with Omar, per The Guardian. 

The optimism around the reopening of the vital waterway in the Gulf eases supply disruption concerns and keeps Oil prices mired in three-week lows.

Weakening Oil prices alleviate inflation worries, prompting markets to scale back their bets on a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September.

Markets are pricing in a roughly 55% chance that the Fed will raise rates in September, down from about 60% a day ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

That’s exactly what is weighing on the US Dollar (USD), while boosting non-yielding assets such as Gold.

Earlier on, Fed's Daly delivered a moderately cautious message, with a FXS Speechtracker score of 5.4/10, slightly softer relative to the historical average of 5.6/10. Daly highlighted that tariffs had a clear impact on inflation but now show signs of fading, while technology investment is currently adding upward pressure, and supply shocks are seen as largely temporary with longer-run inflation expectations still well anchored but not to be taken for granted. The tone leans toward balanced risk management, supportive of holding rates steady while emphasizing data dependence and the evolving mix of supply-side forces.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 2.23 points to 138.69, signaling a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness following the speech. Despite the decline, the index remains firmly in hawkish territory above 100, indicating that markets still see the Fed as biased toward tighter policy even as the tone cools slightly compared to recent communications.

Further, disappointing US ADP jobs and headline ISM Services PMI data continue to undermine the USD and Fed rate hike odds, keeping Gold price upside going strong.  

The ADP said on Wednesday that US private sector employment increased by 44,000 jobs in July, against a growth of 70,000 jobs expected.  Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI came in at 54.1 in July, but missed the forecast of 54.5.

Looking ahead, all eyes will remain on the Middle East developments, especially after Israel launched attacks in southern Lebanon after accusing Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire.

The Mideast situation remains fragile also after Yemen’s ⁠Iran-aligned Houthi ​rebels said they targeted a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea as part of their naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.

If the Gulf conflict re-escalates, hampering the Strait of Hormuz reopening deal, Gold could see a steep correction toward the $4,150 demand area.

However, the daily technical setup suggests that more upside remains in the offing, as traders brace for Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,274.80. The metal holds a bullish near-term bias as it trades above the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $4,078.38 and $4,157.48, while the 100-day SMA at $4,393.96 and the 200-day SMA at $4,493.07 still loom overhead as medium-term caps. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.94 shows firm positive momentum, hinting that buyers retain control though conditions are edging toward overbought territory.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA near $4,394, followed by the 200-day SMA around $4,493, where a break would open the way for a stronger extension of the bullish trend. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the recent price pivot around $4,275, ahead of the 50-day SMA at $4,157 and the 21-day SMA near $4,078; a deeper slide could revisit the rising trend-line support drawn from $3,951, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold positioning shifts as TD Securities flags renewed macro supportAccording to TD Securities, "macro headwinds being pushed out on the horizon, along with US-Iran deal hope, have put some major wind in the precious metals sails." Strategists at the bank note that, when "decomposing managed money gold positions," macro discretionary funds "have more than doubled their positions since June," acting as consistent dip buyers and "protecting the $4000/oz level." TD Securities adds that "the momentum generated from these cohorts' renewed appetite is now forcing CTAs to turn heavy buyers, exaggerating the move to the upside," as systematic accounts are drawn into the rally by the improving trend in positioning.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to make a decisive move in either direction as the persistent US Dollar (USD) weakness was offset by a widening conflict in the Middle East. July employment data from the United States (US) could trigger a big reaction in Gold, while the near-term technical outlook highlights a lack of buyer interest.

Middle East crisis caps Gold’s upsideGold started the week with a bullish gap as geopolitical tensions eased after the US announced over the weekend that it put military operations against Iran on hold and Iran also paused its retaliatory strikes. However, the yellow metal erased a portion of its daily gains later on Monday after Iran clarified that they were not engaged in direct ceasefire talks with the US.

Reports of Saudi forces joining the conflict by launching attacks on Iran-aligned groups in Iraq as retaliation to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities pointed to a widening conflict, rather than a return to diplomacy. Additionally, Iran claimed an attack on a US military base located in Jordan. Gold turned south on Tuesday and lost more than 1% on the day.

On Wednesday, the USD came under heavy selling pressure and allowed XAU/USD to stage a rebound. Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) refrained from delivering a dovish message following the July policy meeting, the decision to leave the policy rate unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75% triggered a USD selloff, as markets had priced in about a 30% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike heading into the event, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s comments in the post-meeting press conference scored a 7/10 on FXS Speechtracker versus a historic 6/10, underscoring a firmer commitment to the inflation fight. The repeated insistence that “only one target and it is 2%” and “we will deliver the 2% target,” alongside remarks that inflation “cannot be cured in 9 weeks” and that the committee “will not hesitate to act,” signaled a resolute, patient hawkish stance despite acknowledging “impressive resilience” in the economy. The emphasis on trend over short-term data, higher nominal and real yields, and a robust, non-inertial policy debate pointed to a Fed comfortable with tight conditions for longer.

According to TD Securities, the latest FOMC decision to leave interest rates unchanged has supported bullion, but it was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s stance that proved more pivotal. The bank notes that “the FOMC held interest rates steady, but it was Fed Chair Warsh’s willingness to look through an inflation shock and steer away from data dependency that has given gold a lift higher.” Even so, TD Securities cautions that the broader policy backdrop remains a constraint, stressing that “we continue to believe that market expectations for rate hikes will keep a lid on any material bullishness across precious metals.” 

The USD continued to weaken against its major rivals on Thursday and Gold managed to close the second consecutive day in positive territory. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, falling short of the market expectation and the first-quarter’s 2.1% expansion. However, the unprecedented decline seen in USD/JPY suggested that the USD weakness was most likely caused by a suspected market intervention by Japanese authorities to support the Japanese Yen, rather than a change in the underlying fundamentals of the USD. With the dust settling down on Friday and investors shifting their focus back to the Middle East, the USD staged a rebound and XAU/USD turned south, retracing a majority of its two-day rebound. 

Gold investors to stay focused on Middle East, Fed outlookThe US economic calendar will feature the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. Ahead of Friday’s critical official employment report, however, PMI figures are unlikely to have a lasting impact on Gold’s performance. Still, the USD could struggle to find demand and help XAU/USD keep its footing in case either of the headline PMIs falls into contraction territory below 50.

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 57K in June and missed the market expectation of 110K by a wide margin, following three consecutive months of robust growth. A disappointing NFP print below 50K in July could revive concerns over worsening conditions in the labor market and weigh on the USD with the immediate reaction.

Conversely, a reading above 80K is likely to be seen as ‘good enough’ for the Fed to continue to prioritize taming inflation and support the USD. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in about a 35% probability of a rate increase in September. If there is a significant upside surprise in NFP, with a print above 120K, markets could quickly position themselves for a September rate hike. Current market positioning suggests that the USD is likely to rally in this scenario and trigger another leg lower in XAU/USD heading into the weekend.

Economists at Wells Fargo anticipate a steady US labor backdrop over the coming months, noting that they “expect the job market to remain broadly stable, with payroll growth averaging ~80K per month and the unemployment rate holding near 4.2% for the remainder of the year.” While they acknowledge that the recent decline in unemployment “did not occur for the ‘right’ reasons,” Wells Fargo argues that the “sideways move in the unemployment rate signals that labor demand and supply are roughly in balance,” reinforcing the view of a jobs market that is neither overheating nor sharply weakening. 

Investors will also pay close attention to comments from Fed policymakers throughout the week, especially from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who dissented by voting in favor of a rate hike in the last Fed decision.

In case policymakers voice concerns over the inflation outlook and risks posed by the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, the USD is likely to stay resilient and limit XAU/USD’s recovery attempts. On the other hand, Gold could gain traction and push higher if US central bank officials support a steady policy for longer, dampening interest rate hike expectations by citing a cooling economy on the back of the disappointing second-quarter growth data.

Analysts at Commerzbank highlight that the latest Fed decision was far from unanimous, noting that “three of the five regional Fed presidents who serve on the Federal Open Market Committee voted in favor of a rate hike,” underscoring a meaningful hawkish contingent within the FOMC. They argue that Chair Kevin Warsh “apparently assumes that the financial markets will do the Fed’s work for it,” allowing higher market yields to shoulder more of the tightening burden in the near term. However, Commerzbank cautions that this strategy has clear limits: “If inflation does not slow noticeably soon, it will not be enough to merely speak resolutely. Then the Fed will also have to take action.” 

Finally, fresh developments surrounding the crisis in the Middle East are likely to continue to impact Gold’s valuation. A retreat in military action could support the precious metal, while a further escalation and expansion of the conflict could continue to feed into global inflation fears and hurt it.

FXStreet Economic CalendarGold technical analysis: Bulls hesitateThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart fell short of clearing the 50 neutral level, and Gold’s break above the descending trend line and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Thursday failed to attract technical buyers.

The $3,950-$3,920 area stays as a key technical support, where the lower limit of the descending triangle formation and the beginning point of the November-February trend align. If Gold breaks below this region, $3,800 (static level, round level) could be seen as the next bearish target ahead of $3,720 (static level).

On the upside, $4,185 (50-day SMA) could be seen as the next resistance level in case Gold manages to confirm the $4,060-$4,070 (20-day SMA, descending trend line) area as support. If the bullish momentum builds up afterward, $4,240 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the November-February uptrend) could be seen as an interim resistance level before $4,380 (static level).

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes World Gold Council (WGC) data showing a sharp rebound in central bank Gold purchases to a record 289 tons in Q2, led by Poland and China, after a very weak Q1. Despite this, the council expects official sector buying to ease and fall below 2025 levels, while ETF outflows and weak mining flows point to fragile investor confidence in Gold prices.

Official buying rebound but outlook softer"The World Gold Council said central bank gold buying in Q1 was much weaker than previously estimated, with purchases of only 57 tons, down 187 tons from the prior view and the weakest start to a year in more than a decade."

"Demand then rebounded sharply in Q2, with net buying reaching a record 289 tons, led by Poland and China."

"Despite that recovery, the council expects central bank gold purchases to ease this year and likely fall below 2025 levels."

"The report also noted Q2 outflows from gold backed exchange traded funds, softer bar and coin demand, weaker jewelry demand, and lower recycled supply."

"Mining and metal sector flows remain weak in iFlow, indicating poor investor confidence in price levels."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that Gold remains under pressure as markets price a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) path and renewed energy strength. They highlight that CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) short covering only begins above $4,222/oz, with more substantial net long positioning closer to $4,300/oz. However, they expect multiple dissents and ongoing hike pricing to limit Gold’s ability to reach these CTA trigger levels.

Fed pricing restrains gold CTA flows"Precious metals have remained weak in the face of hawkish market pricing for the Fed, and renewed energy upside will continue to feed into this narrative."

"Gold markets are already well-priced for a hawkish Fed path, and while we are not expecting a hike today, the bar may be high to shift the underlying forward expectations for the yellow metal."

"CTAs need prices above $4,222/oz to catalyze only very minimal short covering, but beyond this level, pricing simulations highlight the potential for asymmetric upside with prices closer to $4,300/oz likely to see notable net long positions."

"However, we expect multiple dissents to a hold decision, and markets continuing to price for hikes in September and beyond, which would likely see any gold upside fall short of hitting those upside CTA scenario levels."

"War risk is back on, but we are not expecting any material CTA flows across the energy complex. Elsewhere, precious metals will be focused on the Fed, but the bar will be high to shift the underlying bearish forces in the gold market."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

UBS believes gold prices could face further near-term pressure from rising bond yields and easing geopolitical risk, but says any pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

The bank continues to target $5,200 per ounce by mid-2027, arguing that structural demand from central banks and investors remains intact.

The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded around $4,080 on Monday after extending its consolidation around the $4,000 level, well below this year's record highs above $5,300.

Image: XAU/USD 1 year chart The one-year chart shows gold retreating from its March peak above $5,300 before stabilising around the $4,000 level.

UBS believes the broader bull market remains intact despite the correction.

UBS says the precious metal has entered a consolidation phase as investors weigh stronger US economic data against persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

The bank notes that higher Treasury yields and a more cautious outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts could generate further short-term weakness.

"Near-term risks are skewed towards a deeper pullback."

However, UBS argues that the longer-term investment case has changed little.

"We continue to expect gold to reach USD 5,200/oz by June 2027."

According to the bank, structural demand from central banks remains exceptionally strong, while investors are likely to increase allocations once interest-rate uncertainty begins to fade.

UBS also believes that geopolitical tensions continue to provide an important backstop for prices.

"Periods of weakness should be viewed as opportunities to add exposure."

The bank maintains that any decline towards the $3,850 area would represent an attractive entry point for long-term investors rather than signalling the end of the bull market.

Gold Forecast: UBS Says Structural Drivers Remain Intact UBS expects gold to remain volatile over the coming months as markets respond to changing expectations for US monetary policy.

Even so, the bank believes higher real yields are unlikely to outweigh the combination of central bank buying, continued reserve diversification and safe-haven demand.

"We maintain our constructive longer-term view despite near-term volatility."

Image: Gold price in US Dollars (USD) 1 day chart The one-day chart highlights gold's consolidation around $4,080, with prices struggling to break higher as stronger US yields offset continued safe-haven demand.

While UBS accepts that gold may remain rangebound in the short term, it continues to forecast a renewed advance over the next year, with $5,200 remaining its central price target by mid-2027.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Gold is snapping its recent recovery, struggling above $4,100 early Thursday, as both fundamental and technical factors warrant caution for buyers.  

Gold reverses from two-week highsGold is extending its pullback from two-week highs of $4,166 reached on Wednesday, even as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the backfoot.

Looming Japanese intervention risks keep Greenback traders cautious amid potential downside risk to the USD/JPY pair, which could have a ‘rub-off’ effect on the buck.

Additionally, the earnings reports from the American tech titans, Alphabet and Tesla, showed robust spending plans for Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure, lifting chipmakers and major Asian indices. The cautious optimism is also rendering negative for the safe-haven US Dollar.  

However, expectations of sooner (than later) interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are back on the table, courtesy of the widening Middle East conflict-led surging Oil prices and increasing inflation fears, which continue to limit the USD downside and reinforce bearish pressure on non-yielding assets such as Gold.

Therefore, the latest leg down is sponsored by that narrative, especially after the US launched a new wave of strikes on Iran and Yemen's Houthis targeted oil tankers in the Red Sea, widening the scope of a conflict that has once again rattled global markets.

Late Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Tehran would respond in kind to any attack on its infrastructure after US President Donald Trump threatened to bomb a bridge or power plant for every ship targeted in the Strait of Hormuz.

Looking ahead, Gold remains in the eye of the storm amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision.

Although the ECB is widely anticipated to hold key rates this Thursday, any signs of a possibility of a September rate hike could ramp up hawkish sentiment around the central bank. This could further contribute to the retracement in Gold.

Meanwhile, Gold’s daily technical setup continues to caution buyers as they keenly await confirmation of the impending Bear Cross while momentum stays neutral.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,117.19, holding below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,242.58 and well under the 100-day and 200-day SMAs clustered around $4,491, which keeps the near-term bias bearish despite the latest rebound. The metal remains above the 21-day SMA at $4,071.54, suggesting some short-term demand, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 49 points to neutral momentum rather than a decisive recovery.

Additionally, keeping buyers defensive, the 100-day SMA has crossed the 200-day SMA from above, but a confirmation on a daily candlestick closing basis is awaited to confirm a Bear Cross.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA at $4,242.58, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,491.02 and the 200-day SMA at $4,495.96, where a dense supply zone could cap further gains. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 21-day SMA at $4,071.54; a daily close below this floor would likely expose the bearish trend to renewed pressure toward lower levels not yet defined by the current moving-average structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold upside capped as energy and Fed expectations stay in focusAnalysts at ING highlight that gold is "likely to remain sensitive to developments in energy markets and expectations for US monetary policy," keeping the metal vulnerable to shifts in both oil prices and the Fed outlook. They add that silver "could continue to outperform if strength in industrial metals persists alongside safe-haven demand," suggesting the white metal may benefit from both industrial and defensive flows.

Echoing the cautious tone, OCBC notes that "near term, price action may remain two-way," but stresses that "a more sustained recovery likely requires oil prices to back off, some easing in real yields and Fed tightening expectations." Until those conditions materialise, OCBC warns that "upside may remain capped" for gold.

Gold prices remain under pressure from elevated US bond yields, but Goldman Sachs believes robust central bank demand should prevent any sustained sell-off, providing a solid floor for the precious metal despite near-term headwinds.

The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded around $4,300 on Tuesday after retreating from recent highs, as stronger US economic data and higher Treasury yields weighed on investor demand.

Despite the recent pullback, Goldman Sachs remains constructive on the longer-term outlook, arguing that official sector buying continues to underpin the market.

Image: Gold price in US Dollars - 7 day chart Goldman Sachs notes that central banks purchased another 31 tonnes of gold in May, well above the long-run monthly average and consistent with the steady accumulation seen over the past three years.

"Strong central bank buying in May provides a price floor."

The bank believes official-sector demand has fundamentally changed the gold market by reducing the likelihood of deep and prolonged corrections.

"We continue to expect structurally strong central bank demand."

Goldman Sachs acknowledges that higher real interest rates could continue to generate temporary selling pressure, particularly through exchange-traded funds and speculative positioning.

"Rates pressure is likely to be temporary."

The bank argues that while higher yields have historically weighed on gold, central bank buying is now providing an increasingly important offset.

"Official sector purchases should cushion downside risks."

Image: XAU/USD 1 year chart Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: Goldman Sachs Still Sees Longer-Term Upside Goldman Sachs expects near-term volatility to persist while markets assess the outlook for US interest rates.

However, the bank believes any weakness driven by higher yields should prove temporary because central bank demand remains exceptionally strong.

"We expect continued robust official-sector buying to underpin prices."

For gold investors, Goldman Sachs argues that the current environment differs markedly from previous periods of rising yields, with central bank diversification creating a durable source of demand that should continue to support gold over the medium term.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Tuesday as buying interest around the $4,000 psychological level supports prices, while traders assess developments in the Middle East and their potential economic fallout. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,058, up 1.27% on the day.

The United States military carried out a tenth consecutive night of strikes against Iran, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards targeted US military assets across the region.

Despite the continued military exchanges, diplomatic efforts are underway. The Associated Press reported that Iranian officials began meeting with mediators in Pakistan on Tuesday. Reuters reported on Monday that mediators had offered Tehran a 10-day ceasefire to try to bring last month’s interim agreement back on track.

With the situation still in flux, the US Dollar (USD) remains the preferred safe-haven asset, while Oil prices hold close to their highest level in more than a month. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering just below the 101.00 mark, little changed on the day.

Although Gold is attempting to establish a base above the $4,000 psychological level, its upside remains limited as elevated energy prices stoke inflation concerns and strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep monetary policy tighter for longer or even raise interest rates.

Higher borrowing costs reduce Gold's appeal, prompting investors to rotate toward interest-bearing assets such as government bonds.

Dollar support builds as Gulf tensions weigh on goldAnalysts at ING note that “the FX market is gradually catching up with developments in the Gulf, where tensions still appear to be escalating, and the Dollar has found broad-based support.” They highlight that US President Donald Trump has “pledged retaliation against Iran following the killing of three US service members in Jordan,” while Houthi militants are “threatening a blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea,” reinforcing the bid for the Dollar as geopolitical risks intensify.

Strategists at OCBC say Gold has "continued to consolidate around recent lows following the sharp pullback earlier this month," adding that "near term, price action may remain two-way, but a more sustained recovery likely requires oil prices to back off, some easing in real yields and Fed tightening expectations. Until then, upside may remain capped."

Technical analysis: XAU/USD stabilizes above $4,000

XAU/USD is testing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,062. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 on the daily chart is below the neutral 50 level, indicating weak bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 39 suggests the prevailing trend remains strong despite the near-term stabilization.

On the downside, immediate support lies at the $4,000 psychological level, followed by the lower Bollinger Band at $3,948. A break below this area could expose the horizontal support at $3,800.

On the topside, a sustained move above the Bollinger midline at $4,062 could open the door toward the upper band at $4,175, followed by the $4,200 resistance level. A decisive break above $4,200 would bring the more distant $4,500 barrier into focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Gold has edged lower after an early advance as traders await the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, but the metal trades in line with evolving US rate expectations and remains supported above $4,000/oz. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz security concerns and persistent official‑sector buying, led by China, underpin the outlook.

Fed path and China buying in focus"Gold edged lower in Tuesday’s afternoon trading after an early advance as investors looked ahead to the release of the June Federal Open Market Committee minutes later this week for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. The metal continues to trade largely in line with shifting US rate expectations. Last week's weaker-than-expected jobs data reduced expectations of additional tightening and helped gold stabilise back above the $4,000/oz level."

"Meanwhile, official-sector demand remains supportive. Data from the People's Bank of China showed it increased its gold reserves for a 20th consecutive month in June. This marks its largest monthly purchase since late 2023."

"The continued accumulation highlights China's ongoing efforts to diversify reserves and reinforces a broader trend of strong central bank buying. It should continue to provide an important source of support for gold prices despite recent volatility."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The Fed’s rate hike expectations limit gold’s rally potential. Capital inflows into ETFs and central bank purchases are supporting the gold price. The US dollar failed to capitalise on the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Reports of a tanker incident in the Strait of Hormuz are putting US-Iran negotiations at risk. Nevertheless, Brent crude rose only slightly, while the resumption of the S&P 500 rally and the associated improvement in global risk appetite are undermining the greenback’s position.

The futures market is pricing in a 3-in-4 chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026. This is allowing speculators to build up net long positions in the US dollar to their highest levels since 2015, leaving the US currency’s positions vulnerable. No sooner had Kevin Warsh adopted less hawkish rhetoric in Sintra than the markets had anticipated, and the employment figures disappointed, than the EURUSD soared sharply.

Lower chances of a Fed rate hike have allowed gold to find its footing. However, the Sword of Damocles (a potential federal funds rate hike due to persistent inflation) continues to hang over the precious metal. As the risks of an energy shock have receded, the inflationary nature of massive investments in artificial intelligence and weather-related supply chain disruptions remains a reality.

Fears that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy are unlikely to allow gold to return to its record highs in 2026. However, HSBC remains optimistic, expecting that medium-term demand for gold as a means of diversifying investment portfolios, capital inflows into ETFs and increased purchases of bullion by central banks will allow the precious metal to rise.

Indeed, according to the World Gold Council, central banks increased their reserves by 41 tonnes in May, stepping up their bullion purchases. Poland and China were the most active. Since the start of the year, Poland has bought 64 tonnes, Uzbekistan 33 tonnes, China 25 tonnes and Kazakhstan 20 tonnes.

HSBC believes that, in the short term, gold will come under pressure due to the strong US dollar and high yields on US Treasury bonds. In reality, its fate depends on the futures market’s reassessment of the trajectory of the federal funds rate. In this regard, clues from the minutes of the June FOMC meeting are certain to influence gold.

The FxPro Analyst Team

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