Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Bitcoin is consolidating just above the $60K region after a volatile first half of 2026 that saw the asset collapse from its January highs near $96K. The recent rebound off the June lows has restored some short-term optimism, but the price is now stalling directly beneath a heavy confluence of moving-average resistance.

Whether this becomes the start of a genuine trend reversal or simply another lower high inside the broader downtrend will likely be decided over the next several sessions.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart On the daily timeframe, BTC remains capped below both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are converging near the $70K zone and still slope downward. This is a sign that the higher-timeframe trend has not yet flipped bullish.

Since dropping from $96K in January, Bitcoin has carved out a sequence of lower highs, with the April and May recovery stalling around $82K before rolling over into the June and July low near $58K. However, the asset has since printed a series of short-term higher lows relative to the broader structure amid a clear bullish divergence with the RSI, and the market has reclaimed the $64K mark.

A sustained close above the confluence of moving averages and the $74K supply zone would be the first real evidence that the downtrend is losing control, potentially opening the door toward the prior resistance zone near $82K.

On the downside, failure to build on this recovery would put the $60K zone back in focus as the immediate support. A breakdown below that level would expose the major demand region around $54K, which remains the key higher-timeframe floor.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart The 4-hour chart shows a cleaner picture. Bitcoin bottomed inside the $58K-$60K demand zone in late June and has been climbing steadily within a rising wedge pattern, printing higher lows along the lower trendline.

That advance carried price into the $65K–$67K resistance cluster formed by June highs. However, the latest candles show a rejection from this area, with the price breaking the wedge to the downside and slipping back toward $64K.

The RSI has also cooled from overbought territory near 70 down toward the 40 zone, reflecting fading momentum rather than outright bearish pressure. A rebound and reclaim of the recent highs around the $67K zone would support a push toward $72K–$74K, while continued rejection and decline here would validate the rising wedge breakdown and likely send the price back to retest the $58K support area, which, as things stand, is the more probable scenario.

Sentiment Analysis Looking at Bitcoin’s spot average order size, large whale orders have dominated the tape through the entire decline and subsequent recovery since June. This is a marked shift from the retail-heavy order flow seen back in December 2025 near the $90K region.

This metric tracks the size distribution of executed spot orders, distinguishing retail-sized trades from large block orders typically associated with institutional or high-net-worth participants. Persistent big-whale activity through a drawdown generally signals accumulation rather than capitulation, since larger players tend to scale into weakness rather than chase strength.

The continued presence of big whale orders through both the $58K low and the recovery above $64K suggests accumulation has been underway at these depressed levels. If this behavior persists as price approaches the $72K-$74K resistance, it would lend credibility to the case for a deeper structural reversal. A sudden shift back toward retail-dominated flow near resistance, by contrast, would be a caution flag worth watching, and could point to another potential decline in the coming weeks.

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Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure after being rejected for a second time at the $67,000 level, raising the prospect of heightened short-term downside risk. The leading cryptocurrency has now pulled back toward $64,000, with several key supports now being closely monitored by traders.

Weekly stochastic RSI signals prolonged bottoming phaseBitcoin’s weekly stochastic RSI has entered oversold territory, but analysts warn that this is unlikely to mark an immediate market bottom. According to More Crypto Online, earlier market cycles in 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 also saw the stochastic RSI trend in the lower zone for several months before a definitive low was established.

During those cycles, Bitcoin’s price either moved sideways or continued to decline after the indicator turned oversold, delaying the recovery phase. The current chart comparison indicates that the present bottoming process may stretch into late 2026, with a speculative low projected in the $45,000 to $55,000 range.

“Previous cycles took roughly 12 months to move from the major peak into the final low. The current pattern suggests continued volatility and possible further downside before a sustained recovery emerges,” said More Crypto Online, highlighting the indicator’s limitations in calling exact bottoms.

The stochastic RSI tracks price momentum rather than absolute value and may remain suppressed for extended periods during market consolidations. As a result, its current oversold reading does not guarantee a further decline; price can also consolidate or start to recover while the indicator stays low.

For traders, this setup points to a potentially drawn-out bottoming period. A shift to a more positive outlook would require Bitcoin to establish higher highs and higher lows, followed by a successful defense of major support levels.

Mini dictionary: Stochastic RSI, a technical momentum oscillator that measures the level of the RSI relative to its range over a set period, is often used to identify overbought or oversold market conditions and potential trend reversals.

Sellers remain active at key resistance levelThe $67,000 Point of Control has acted as a significant resistance zone for Bitcoin. Analyst Cryptorphic highlighted that the previous rejection at this level was followed by a 13% drop, underscoring its importance for near-term price action.

The Point of Control is defined as the price area seeing the highest trading volume within a selected range. Bitcoin’s recurring failure to sustain levels above $67,000 implies that sellers continue to dominate in this area.

Maintaining support above key levels is critical. A confirmed breakout above $67,000 could shift momentum and open the path to higher targets, while continued weakness keeps support zones at $62,000, $60,000, and $58,000 in focus for potential downside tests.

For now, the local market structure remains bearish as Bitcoin trades below $67,000. Should negative momentum increase, price could revisit the late-June low near $58,000. The previous decline from $67,000 to that region represented an almost 14% move.

LevelRoleNotes$67,000Point of Control / ResistanceRepeated rejection, key decision point$64,000Current areaRecent retreat zone after rejection$62,000SupportNear-term support level$60,000SupportPotential downside target$58,000SupportLate-June low, previous 14% drop after rejection$45,000-$55,000Cycle low (speculative)Analyst projection for possible broad baseIf buyers can reclaim and maintain momentum above $67,000, the rejection would be invalidated, and the path toward $71,000 and higher could reopen. Until then, the risk of further losses persists.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

The US Department State Department has launched a program to “advance diplomatic efforts on digital freedom and freedom of expression” using a Bitcoin (BTC) advocacy organization as a partner.

In a Friday X post, the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) said that it would be a founding partner in the US State Department’s Freedom Tech Excellence Program (FTEP), alongside Palantir Technologies, Anduril Industries and the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation. According to the organization, the program will allow its employees “to work alongside state department experts and defend digital freedoms around the world.”

“FTEP brings private sector talent to the Department for limited-term assignments to advance diplomatic efforts on key issues including online freedom of expression, privacy-enhancing technologies, countering digital surveillance, and responsible AI governance,” said the State Department.

Source: Bitcoin Policy Institute

Since its creation as a “non-partisan research and advocacy” organization in 2021, the BPI has endorsed attempts to codify US President Donald Trump’s executive order to establish a strategic crypto reserve into law. As of July, lawmakers in the US Congress had not passed legislation to follow Trump’s March 2025 executive order.

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Research, analyzed Strategy’s newly announced Digital Credit Capital Framework as the company seeks solutions for its capital-structure issues amid sizable unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings.

Strategy’s capital move: What’s changing?Strategy, listed on Nasdaq under the ticker MSTR, recently filed an 8-K revealing its Digital Credit Capital Framework. The company, which is well known for its significant Bitcoin reserves totaling 847,363 BTC, faces unrealized losses reported to be approximately $14 billion.

According to the regulatory filing, the framework now allows Strategy to sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin. It also officially institutes a USD reserve policy, updates dividend terms for STRC preferred shares, and authorizes individual $1 billion share repurchase programs for both preferred stock and MSTR common shares.

The board allocated $2.55 billion of cash reserves, limiting these funds strictly to paying preferred dividends and servicing debt interest. At the company’s current annual outflows of about $1.76 billion, this reserve would cover roughly 17 months. A full $1.25 billion Bitcoin sale would extend total liquidity to around $3.8 billion, supporting about 26 months of obligations.

In May, Strategy executed its first-ever Bitcoin sale, liquidating 32 BTC for around $2.5 million to fund a dividend payment.

JPMorgan has advised Strategy to focus on raising capital by selling shares rather than liquidating its Bitcoin holdings. Alex Thorn at Galaxy Research said the core question is whether these new measures genuinely fix the company’s capital-structure risks, or merely push them into the future.

Strategy’s leadership, including Chairman Michael Saylor, considers the overhaul essential for financial resilience, with Saylor emphasizing, “digital credit requires liquidity, discipline, and active capital management.”

Mini dictionary: Strategy (MSTR): Strategy is a publicly traded company known for its large-scale Bitcoin investments and active role in digital asset capital management.

Market reaction and investor outlookInvestor interest in the new framework was reflected in the stock market. MSTR shares rose 12.6% to $92.68 on the Monday after the announcement, then climbed past $100 by Wednesday. This represented a 27% gain from the previous Friday’s closing price. STRC preferred shares also moved higher, ending at $87.87 on July 3.

AssetPre-announcement pricePost-announcement price% ChangeMSTR Common Shares$78.62$100++27%STRC Preferred SharesNot stated$87.87N/ABenchmark Equity Research reaffirmed its positive stance by maintaining a Buy rating for MSTR and setting a price target of $570 for the stock.

Benchmark Equity Research views the framework favorably and kept its Buy rating in place, citing enhanced financial flexibility for Strategy.

Other players: Strive and SATAStrive, another company aiming to build a capital structure backed by Bitcoin, cautioned investors this week against assuming it would issue new SATA preferred shares at the $100 par value due to market volatility.

Jeff Walton, Strive’s chief risk officer, reported that the short interest in SATA shares rose by 1 million in the 30 days ending June 30, while the annualized borrowing cost for the shares jumped from 6.1% to 68.6% during the same period.

Mini dictionary: SATA preferred shares: These represent specialized stock issued by Strive, offering fixed dividends and priority over common shares, but may be affected by short-selling and market dynamics.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

U.S.-Iran War Update: Trump Orders Pause in Strikes on Iran Amid Hormuz Talks

President Donald Trump said he is considering resuming full-scale military operations against Iran if his demands are not met.

Bitcoin dropped over 3% in July on reports of ceasefire breakdowns and renewed strikes.

From ceasefire to ‘finish the job’ The 2026 Iran war kicked off with US-Israeli strikes in late February. An informal ceasefire and a series of understandings followed, giving markets a breather and letting Bitcoin claw back losses through the spring months.

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That ceasefire collapsed by early July. Renewed violence in the Strait of Hormuz reignited hostilities. US combat fatalities and Iranian retaliations have kept the military exchanges going into mid-July.

Now Trump is talking to defense officials about targeting Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure. The phrase reportedly being used in those conversations is “finish the job.”

Crypto gets caught in the sanctions crossfire In June 2026, the US Treasury sanctioned Nobitex, Iran’s largest digital asset exchange, along with three other Iranian digital asset channels. The stated reason: sanctions evasion. This effort is part of a campaign the administration has dubbed “Economic Fury.”

Bitcoin’s geopolitical mood swings Bitcoin dropped over 3% when the ceasefire fell apart and strikes resumed in July. When de-escalation signals emerged earlier in the spring, prices rebounded meaningfully.

Polymarket hosted a $120 million market related to a potential permanent peace deal in Iran, with odds shifting based on Trump’s public comments.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Kuwait is pushing back hard against a Wall Street Journal report claiming it participated in secret airstrikes against Iranian military targets. Kuwait’s ambassador to the US, Al-Zain Al-Sabah, denied any involvement in military operations against Iran, stating that Kuwait neither carried out such actions nor allowed its territory to be used as a launchpad against neighboring states.

The denial came just hours after the WSJ published its report alleging that both Bahrain and Kuwait conducted airstrikes on Iranian targets in early July 2026.

What we actually know Neither Bahrain nor Kuwait has publicly acknowledged the alleged strikes. Spokespeople from both countries did not provide comments to the Wall Street Journal following publication. So we’re left with a major US newspaper reporting one thing and a Gulf state ambassador categorically denying it, with no third-party confirmation to break the tie.

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Kuwait faced several Iranian drone and missile attacks earlier in 2026, which raised serious questions about its defense posture in the Persian Gulf.

The reported strikes, if they occurred, would mark an unusual instance of direct military action by Gulf states against Iran. Historically, Gulf countries have preferred to operate through coalitions or with explicit US backing rather than conducting independent offensive operations.

Why crypto traders should care about Persian Gulf airstrikes Gulf conflict developments have been directly linked to fluctuations in Bitcoin prices this year, with escalations triggering significant leverage liquidations across major exchanges.

The mechanism isn’t complicated. Persian Gulf tensions threaten oil supply chains, which creates uncertainty in energy markets, which shifts global risk sentiment, which sends leveraged crypto positions into liquidation cascades.

The broader macro picture for investors Energy market disruptions remain the primary transmission mechanism to crypto. Oil supply chain uncertainty historically correlates with volatility spikes across risk assets, and Bitcoin has increasingly behaved like a high-beta risk asset during acute geopolitical stress.

What makes this particularly tricky is that the confirmation or debunking of the WSJ report could each produce violent market reactions in opposite directions. Confirmation would likely trigger a risk-off move as traders price in further escalation. A credible debunking might produce a relief rally.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is heading to the White House armed with fresh intelligence on Iran’s nuclear program, setting the stage for a meeting with President Donald Trump that could reshape the geopolitical landscape, and with it, the trajectory of risk assets including Bitcoin.

Israeli officials aren’t exactly optimistic about diplomacy. The prevailing view from Jerusalem is that a US-Iran agreement remains unlikely, particularly after a year defined by military confrontations, paused negotiations, and regional tension.

What happened in June, and why it matters now In June 2026, renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran sent Bitcoin sliding into the $63,000 to $70,000 range. Oil prices jumped over 3% during the same stretch.

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Bitcoin has increasingly behaved like a high-beta risk asset during geopolitical shocks, not a safe haven. Traders who thought they were insulated from old-world geopolitics learned otherwise.

The intelligence briefing and its implications The specifics of Netanyahu’s new intelligence on Iran’s nuclear efforts remain undisclosed as of July 25, 2026.

Trump has reportedly urged Netanyahu to exercise restraint in response to ongoing provocations.

What crypto investors should actually watch The Strait of Hormuz remains the critical variable. Roughly 20% of global oil passes through that narrow waterway.

Prediction markets like Polymarket have already begun pricing Netanyahu-related event probabilities, suggesting that sophisticated traders are treating this as a quantifiable geopolitical risk.

Bitcoin’s behavior during the June selloff offers a useful framework. The drop to the $63,000 to $70,000 range happened fast. Traders who were leveraged long got caught.

There has been minimal coverage of Iran-specific or sanctions-related tokens in connection with this narrative. Investors aren’t looking for niche plays tied to Iranian sanctions evasion or geopolitical speculation. They’re treating Bitcoin itself as the proxy for broader market risk associated with Middle Eastern instability.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a total trading volume of $8.05 billion over the past full week, marking the lowest five-day total since October 2024.

Bitcoin ETF inflows slow as volatility dropsETF volume for the week was down 14% compared to $9.37 billion in the previous week, according to SoSoValue data. While April 2025 saw a lower weekly volume for the funds, that period spanned only four trading sessions due to market holidays. Among weeks with a full five sessions, this recent period ranks as the slowest since mid-October 2024.

Throughout the week, Bitcoin’s price hovered near $64,000, significantly below its peak late last year. Minimal price movements contributed to reduced trading activity, leaving fewer opportunities for short-term traders.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $33.8 million for the week, their third consecutive week of inflows following an earlier streak of eight weeks of outflows that ended in early July. However, the latest figure represents a slowdown compared to $75.7 million the previous week and $197.4 million two weeks ago.

A sharp turnaround occurred midweek: net inflows had reached $499.1 million by Wednesday, but large-scale outflows followed with $225.2 million exiting on Thursday and another $240.1 million on Friday. These outflows erased most of the gains accumulated earlier in the week.

BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest Bitcoin ETF by assets, registered $414.7 million in outflows on Thursday and Friday alone and ended the week down approximately $95.5 million. The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust partially offset these withdrawals, attracting $85.8 million and $78.1 million, respectively.

Mini dictionary: SoSoValue, an analytics platform, provides detailed real-time tracking and reporting for digital asset investment products, including ETF flow and volume data.

Inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $499.1 million by Wednesday, but heavy withdrawals on Thursday and Friday erased most of those gains, resulting in only $33.8 million in net inflows for the week.

Ether ETFs see stronger inflows and outperform Bitcoin productsSpot Ether ETFs brought in $103.9 million in new funds during the past week, more than triple the Bitcoin ETF net inflows. This marks the third straight week of positive inflows for Ether ETFs, during which they have surpassed Bitcoin ETFs for two consecutive weeks. In the previous week, Ether funds attracted $105.4 million while Bitcoin drew $75.7 million.

At the end of the week, Ether ETFs managed $10.17 billion in net assets, roughly one-eighth of the $77.82 billion held by Bitcoin ETFs. Over the last three weeks, both groups have seen similar cumulative inflows, with Ether ETFs adding $293.8 million and Bitcoin $306.9 million.

BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust accounted for the majority of Ether ETF inflows, taking in $96.3 million. Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust followed at $9.9 million in net inflows. Fidelity’s FETH, however, recorded $6.2 million in outflows. Ether ETF trading volume reached $2.78 billion, about 35% of Bitcoin ETF trading volumes.

Fund TypeWeekly Net InflowsTotal Net AssetsTrading VolumeBitcoin ETFs$33.8 million$77.82 billion$8.05 billionEther ETFs$103.9 million$10.17 billion$2.78 billion Spot Ether ETFs attracted $103.9 million in weekly inflows, outperforming their Bitcoin counterparts for a second consecutive week.

Outflows still weigh on year-to-date performanceDespite signs of renewed interest in July, the inflows have not offset earlier losses. Since January, Bitcoin ETFs remain down $5.23 billion, maintaining a negative trend for capital movement this year. Ether ETFs are down by about $1.15 billion over the same period despite recent gains.

In July, Ether led the revival, posting $337.7 million in inflows compared to Bitcoin’s $234 million. On July 11, both ETF types broke their eight-week outflow streaks, adding $281.8 million combined, though this was only a partial recovery from the $9.46 billion in outflows recorded over the preceding two months.

Bitcoin ETFs had previously ended a 13-day withdrawal streak on June 5 after redeeming more than $4.4 billion since mid-May. Ether ETFs also halted a 17-day period of declines on that date.

Data from CoinShares shows institutional investors reduced their Bitcoin exposure by 17% during the first quarter, reflecting a broader reassessment of crypto asset allocations. On June 5, $326 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs, including $214 million in outflows from BlackRock’s IBIT, underscoring ongoing volatility in investor sentiment.

As of early Saturday, Bitcoin traded at approximately $64,368, while Ether changed hands near $1,875, based on aggregated pricing from CoinGecko.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Top 5 Trump News That Moved Markets This Week

Crypto analyst Digital Asset Investor has projected that XRP may experience a twentyfold increase from its current valuation. He is urging followers to take note of this target and claims the move could position XRP to overtake Bitcoin in total market capitalization.

The Bitcoin dominance debateDigital Asset Investor outlined his belief that Bitcoin’s current dominance stems from regulatory circumstances rather than underlying utility. He described Bitcoin as occupying a so-called regulatory monopoly, giving it a substantial advantage over other digital assets.

He argued that this scenario could shift if new policies or regulations prompt a change in how cryptocurrencies are classified. Under those circumstances, he predicts that utility-focused assets would gain ground at Bitcoin’s expense.

In his assessment, Bitcoin could eventually be seen as just another altcoin if its regulatory regime changes, losing the top-tier status it currently enjoys. He has singled out XRP as a key beneficiary, citing its potential to capture investment redirected from Bitcoin.

“When Bitcoin loses its regulatory monopoly and utility kicks in, XRP as well as others will replace Bitcoin and Bitcoin will become an altcoin.”

XRP price projectionReferencing research shared by crypto analyst SMQKE, Digital Asset Investor highlighted a report from asset manager WisdomTree. According to the report, XRP would need to surge 20x from its present price to match Bitcoin’s market capitalization.

The analyst considers such growth plausible if investor attention shifts toward assets with practical use cases. He asserts that as regulatory clarity improves across the industry, capital flows could increasingly favor projects with demonstrated utility.

Digital Asset Investor views XRP’s integration into cross-border payment systems and partnerships with traditional finance companies as evidence of its real-world value. He claims these factors enhance its prospects for attracting institutional interest in the near future.

Mini dictionary: WisdomTree is a US-based asset management firm known for offering exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and crypto market research reports.

AssetCurrent Market CapRequired XRP Price Increase to SurpassBitcoinLargest in crypto marketXRP must rise 20xXRPMuch lower than BitcoinTarget: 20x growth from current levelAnalyst’s confidenceDigital Asset Investor’s outlook is marked by conviction. He encourages followers to “write it down,” emphasizing his belief that the target can be reached as market dynamics evolve.

He tells his audience to document this forecast, indicating that, in his view, regulatory reforms and on-chain utility could position XRP for a historic rally.

The analyst referenced ongoing developments such as proposed legislation including the CLARITY Act, suggesting the legislative environment could quickly reshape the competitive landscape for cryptocurrencies like XRP.

He maintains that the alignment of regulatory clarity and market interest could help XRP achieve the projected value increase. For XRP holders, the key message is that the path for significant appreciation may depend on wider industry developments and potential regulatory shifts.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Over $100 million entered the funds tracking the altcoin in the past week.

The spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds ended their third consecutive week in the green, but momentum faded at the end of it.

In the meantime, the funds tracking Ethereum continue to outperform, gaining over $100 million as the underlying asset challenged the $1,950 level.

BTC ETFs Still in the Green but… The funds tracking the market leader were in a tough spot for weeks. Eight, to be precise. In this streak that began in mid-May and felt it went on for eternity, they saw over $8 billion withdrawn from investors, with the total net inflows going down from over $59.34 billion to $51.08 billion on July 2.

However, investors finally changed their tune at this point and broke this negative trend during the first full week of July, inserting nearly $200 million. Another $75.67 million followed during the subsequent week, and the one that just ended began on a high note. In fact, the actual net inflows stood at approximately $1 billion during the seven consecutive green days – from July 14 until July 22.

This coincided (or propelled) with bitcoin’s price rally that drove the asset to $67,000 on Wednesday for the first time in over a month. However, the asset was rejected there, driven south to $64,000 on Friday, while the ETF outflows returned. On Thursday and Friday, investors pulled out $225.18 million and $240 million, respectively.

As such, even though the week ended slightly in the green, it was a relatively modest $33.79 million.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Net Flows. Source: SoSoValue ETH ETFs Still Do Better A rather interesting trend that began two weeks ago was replicated once again. The spot Ethereum ETFs turned out to be more attractive to investors, with almost $104 million in net inflows. Only one day was in the red, with investors pulling out $70.62 million on Friday. Before that, they had poured in $38.09 million on Monday, $37.47 million on Tuesday, $72.64 million on Wednesday, and $26.32 million on Thursday.

You may also like: Bitcoin ETFs Edge Closer in Japan as Regulators Tighten Crypto Oversight The ETF Battle Between Gold and Bitcoin: Is BTC Really Losing? Bitcoin Nears Final Stage of Bear Market Window – Is a Broader Recovery in Sight? Perhaps due to these rather impressive numbers, the underlying asset surged past $1,900 mid-week and peaked at just over $1,950. However, it couldn’t keep the momentum going and slipped by about $100 on Friday and Saturday.

The total net inflows of the ETH ETFs have recovered over $200 million in the past three weeks, but are still well below the $12.09 billion seen in May.

Spot Ethereum ETF Flows. Source: SoSoValue Tags:

18h05 ▪ 4 min read ▪ by Fenelon L.

Summarize this article with:

The US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of $310.62 million on July 24, 2026, according to data compiled by SoSoValue. This slowdown marks the end of a relatively calm period for crypto-listed products. The reversal mainly affects Ethereum funds, which had seen five consecutive days of inflows.

In brief Bitcoin ETFs accounted for the majority of outflows with $240 million Ethereum ETFs lost $70.62 million, breaking a five-day inflow streak No single catalyst: macro de-risking, spot price decline, and reduced summer liquidity Ethereum Loses Momentum After Five Days of Inflows The five days of inflows just concluded indicate a discreet but real rotation of capital towards ETH products. Network fundamentals improving, DeFi activity picking up: the reasons for this movement were many, as already shown by the recent analysis of Bitcoin ETF flows. 

This momentum evaporated in a single session. With $70.62 million in net redemptions, the young category of Ethereum ETFs sees its longest consecutive inflow streak end since its second week of existence. 

The amount may seem modest relative to the capital at stake. But the sudden stop reminds of a reality of these vehicles: a few institutional orders are enough to flip the daily balance.

Bitcoin ETFs bled harder. The $240 million net outflows hit all issuers, with fee differences making no difference in the outcome. The figure ranks among the largest daily drops in recent weeks, even though flow data remains inherently volatile. 

It depicts a fairly broad de-risking movement, not a simple capital waltz from one fund to another. Some analysts point to macroeconomic tensions. Others mention end-of-month rebalances. No isolated element stood out in the public data from July 24.

The Regulatory Context Adds to Uncertainty Finding a single trigger is a challenge. ETF flows often follow prices with a lag, and July 24 saw both Bitcoin and Ether retreat slightly during the session, which may have triggered last-minute redemptions. Thinner summer liquidity amplifies such moves. 

For Ethereum ETFs, the timing is especially sensitive because these products are still seeking their institutional base. A prolonged series of outflows could deter investors who were waiting for stronger signals before entering. Yet, the fundamentals of underlying networks paint a different picture. 

Developer engagement on Ethereum and major layer-1s remains strong, proof that long-term builders are not having their roadmaps dictated by daily ETF flows.

The rest of the week will show whether July 24 was just a hiccup or the start of a heavier trend. The flows in the coming sessions will matter more than this isolated figure. If inflows do not resume quickly, the institutional demand from recent weeks, especially on the Ethereum side, could prove more fragile than expected. A rebound, on the other hand, would relegate July 24 to a statistical accident, inflated by summer volumes. 

BlackRock has also shown that major issuers know how to restart the engine when conditions are right. The narrowing gap between Bitcoin and Ethereum flows also deserves attention: a lasting preference for one asset or the other could redraw the map of institutional adoption in the current cycle.

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Fenelon L.

Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Kripto para piyasasında haftalık görünüm pozitif seyrini korurken, analistler Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Cardano (ADA), Binance Coin (BNB) ve Hyperliquid (HYPE) gibi altcoinler için önemli destek ve direnç seviyelerine dikkat çekti. Değerlendirmeye göre Ethereum ve Cardano toparlanma sinyalleri verirken, XRP yatay seyrini sürdürüyor. BNB zayıf görünümünü korurken HYPE için ise düzeltme riski öne çıkıyor.

Ethereum 2.000 dolar direncine yaklaştı Ethereum son bir haftada yaklaşık %3 yükseldi. Haziran sonundan bu yana alıcıların güç kazanmasıyla başlayan toparlanma hareketi, 1.500 dolar desteğinin korunmasının ardından hız kazandı.

Analistler, şimdi gözlerin 2.000 dolar seviyesine çevrildiğini belirtiyor. Bu seviyenin güçlü bir psikolojik direnç oluşturabileceği ve kısa vadede satış baskısını artırabileceği ifade ediliyor.

Buna karşın Ethereum’un uzun vadeli düşüş trendinden tamamen çıkabilmesi için 2.000 doların destek seviyesine dönüşmesi gerektiği vurgulanıyor.

XRP 1,20 dolar direncini aşmakta zorlanıyor XRP de haftayı yaklaşık %3 yükselişle tamamladı. Fiyatın 1 dolar desteğinin üzerinde kalması olumlu değerlendirilirken, 1,20 dolar seviyesindeki direncin henüz aşılamaması dikkat çekiyor.

Analistler, işlem hacmindeki kademeli düşüş nedeniyle XRP’nin güçlü bir kırılım gerçekleştirecek momentuma sahip olmadığını düşünüyor. Şubat ayındaki sert düşüşün ardından yatırımcı ilgisinin tam olarak geri dönmediği belirtiliyor.

Yine de fiyatın 1 dolar üzerinde kalmayı sürdürmesi, satış baskısının sınırlı kaldığını gösteren önemli bir gelişme olarak değerlendiriliyor.

Cardano yükseliş sinyali veriyor Cardano haftalık bazda yaklaşık %6 değer kazanarak incelenen altcoinler arasında en güçlü performansı gösterdi.

Analistler, fiyat grafiğinde oluşan omuz-baş-omuz dönüş formasyonunun ardından 0,15 dolar desteğinin korunmasını olumlu görüyor. Ancak kalıcı bir trend değişiminin teyit edilmesi için daha yüksek dipler ve daha yüksek zirveler oluşması gerektiği belirtiliyor.

Bu senaryoda 0,25 dolar seviyesinin aşılması kritik önem taşıyor. Ayrıca haftalık MACD göstergesinin yükseliş sinyali üretmesi, satıcıların güç kaybedebileceğine işaret ediyor.

BNB zayıf görünümünü sürdürüyor Binance Coin son bir haftada kayda değer bir yükseliş gösteremedi. Analistlere göre 580 dolar direnci aşılmadığı sürece fiyatın yatay hareketini sürdürmesi veya daha düşük seviyeleri test etmesi olası görünüyor.

Azalan işlem hacmi ve volatilite de alıcıların piyasaya yeterince güçlü dönmediğini gösteriyor. Değerlendirmede, Avrupa Birliği’ndeki son düzenlemelerin de BNB üzerindeki talebi sınırlayan faktörlerden biri olabileceği ifade edildi.

Bu nedenle analistler, olası geri çekilmelerde 500 dolar seviyesini önemli destek olarak izliyor.

HYPE için düzeltme uyarısı Hyperliquid (HYPE) ise haftayı yatay tamamlasa da son bir ayda yaklaşık %5 değer kaybetti. Analistler, fiyatın 60 doların altında kalmasının satış baskısını artırabileceğini belirtiyor.

60 dolar seviyesinin altında kalıcılık sağlanması durumunda daha geniş çaplı bir düzeltmenin başlayabileceği ifade edilirken, 56 ve 52 dolar seviyeleri önemli destek noktaları olarak öne çıkıyor.

Önümüzdeki günlerde altcoin piyasasının yönü, Bitcoin’in fiyat hareketi ve kritik direnç seviyelerinin aşılıp aşılamayacağına bağlı olacak.

Bu içerik genel piyasa verilerine dayanır ve yatırım tavsiyesi değildir. Kendi araştırmanızı yapmanızı öneririz.

Son Dakika kripto para haberleri için hemen tıkla.

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Kripto para piyasasında satış baskısı etkisini sürdürürken, Bitcoin (BTC) son 24 saatte yaşadığı değer kaybıyla 63 bin dolar seviyesine geriledi. Lider kripto paradaki geri çekilme, altcoin piyasasında da geniş çaplı satışları beraberinde getirirken, Kripto paraların büyük bölümü günü düşüşle geçirdi. Sui (SUI), Cardano (ADA), NEAR Protocol (NEAR) ve Solana (SOL) en fazla değer kaybeden büyük kripto paralar arasında yer alırken, Uniswap (UNI) ise yükseliş kaydeden tek önemli altcoin oldu.

Bitcoin 63 Bin Dolar Seviyesine Geriledi Bitcoin, son işlem gününde satış baskısının artmasıyla birlikte 63 bin dolar seviyesine kadar geriledi. Gün içerisinde toparlanma denemeleri görülse de lider kripto para son 24 saatte yaklaşık yüzde 1 değer kaybetti. Analistler, Bitcoin’deki geri çekilmenin yalnızca teknik nedenlerden kaynaklanmadığını, yatırımcıların küresel ekonomik gelişmeler ve makro belirsizlikler nedeniyle daha temkinli hareket ettiğini belirtiyor. Kısa vadede 63 bin dolar seviyesinin korunup korunamayacağı ise piyasanın yönü açısından kritik önem taşıyor.

İlginizi Çekebilir: Kripto Piyasasında Kapanma Dalgası: Bir Proje Daha Veda Ediyor!

Bitcoin’deki düşüş, altcoin piyasasında daha sert fiyat hareketlerini beraberinde getirdi. Kripto paraların büyük bölümü değer kaybederken en dikkat çeken düşüşler şu varlıklarda görüldü:

Sui (SUI): Yaklaşık yüzde 4 düşüş Cardano (ADA): Yaklaşık yüzde 3-4 düşüş NEAR Protocol (NEAR): Yaklaşık yüzde 3-4 düşüş Solana (SOL): Yaklaşık yüzde 2,5 düşüş Bu tablo, yatırımcıların riskli varlıklardan çıkış yaparak daha temkinli bir pozisyon almaya devam ettiğini gösteriyor.

Bitcoin ve Altcoinlerde Gözler Destek Seviyelerinde Piyasa uzmanları, Bitcoin’in 63 bin dolar seviyesinin üzerinde tutunmasının kısa vadeli teknik görünüm açısından kritik önem taşıdığına dikkat çekiyor. Bu seviyenin korunması, satış baskısının hafiflemesiyle birlikte tepki alımlarını destekleyebilir ve yatırımcı güveninin yeniden artmasına katkı sağlayabilir. Özellikle işlem hacminde yaşanabilecek artışın, Bitcoin’in kayıplarını telafi ederek daha yüksek direnç seviyelerini test etmesinin önünü açabileceği değerlendiriliyor. Buna karşın 63 bin dolar seviyesinin aşağı yönlü kırılması halinde satış baskısının güçlenmesi ve fiyatın daha düşük destek bölgelerine doğru geri çekilme riskinin artabileceği ifade ediliyor.

Altcoin piyasasında ise risk iştahının zayıf seyretmesi nedeniyle oynaklığın bir süre daha yüksek kalması bekleniyor. Bitcoin’deki yön arayışının netleşmemesi, yatırımcıların büyük bölümünü temkinli hareket etmeye yönlendirirken, özellikle orta ve düşük piyasa değerine sahip altcoinlerde fiyat dalgalanmalarının daha sert yaşanabileceği belirtiliyor. Analistler, önümüzdeki günlerde hem Bitcoin’in kritik destek seviyelerindeki performansının hem de makroekonomik gelişmelerin, kripto para piyasasının genel yönü üzerinde belirleyici olmaya devam edeceğini vurguluyor.

Değerlendirme Bitcoin’in 63 bin dolar seviyesine gerilemesi, kripto para piyasasında satış baskısının yeniden güç kazandığını gösteriyor. Altcoinlerde görülen daha sert düşüşler, yatırımcıların riskten kaçınma eğiliminin arttığına işaret ederken, Uniswap’ın pozitif ayrışması günün dikkat çeken gelişmelerinden biri oldu. Önümüzdeki günlerde Bitcoin’in kritik destek seviyelerindeki performansı ve küresel piyasalardaki gelişmeler, hem BTC’nin hem de altcoinlerin kısa vadeli yönü üzerinde belirleyici olmaya devam edecek.

Son dakika kripto para haberleri için hemen tıkla

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Bitcoin güvenliği, ekosistemin sürdürülebilirliği açısından en önemli başlıklardan biri olmaya devam ediyor. Bu kapsamda sektörün önde gelen dokuz şirketi, ağın uzun vadeli korunmasını desteklemek amacıyla Bitcoin Security Consortium adlı yeni bir oluşum kurduklarını duyurdu. Girişim; geliştiricilere finansman sağlamak, güvenlik araştırmalarını desteklemek ve kuantum sonrası şifreleme teknolojileri üzerine çalışmaları hızlandırmayı hedefliyor. Bu gelişme, yalnızca Bitcoin için değil, daha geniş kripto para piyasası açısından da önemli bir adım olarak değerlendiriliyor.

Bitcoin Güvenliği İçin Hangi Şirketler Bir Araya Geldi? Konsorsiyumun kurucu üyeleri arasında Strategy, BlackRock, Coinbase, Galaxy, Fidelity Digital Assets, Anchorage Digital, ARK Invest, Block ve Blockstream yer alıyor. Böylece yatırım şirketleri, saklama hizmeti sağlayıcıları, kripto borsası işletmeleri, ödeme firmaları ve altyapı şirketleri ortak bir çatı altında buluşmuş oldu.

Girişimin günlük koordinasyonunu ise Brink İcra Direktörü Mike Schmidt gönüllü olarak üstlenecek. Ancak konsorsiyum, Bitcoin ağının yönetiminde söz sahibi olmayacağını ve yalnızca güvenlik alanındaki çalışmaları destekleyeceğini özellikle vurguluyor.

Geliştiricilere 15 Milyon Dolarlık Destek Sağlanacak Strategy tarafından paylaşılan bilgilere göre kurucu üyeler, önümüzdeki üç yıl boyunca Bitcoin geliştiricileri ve güvenlik araştırmacıları için toplam 15 milyon dolar kaynak ayırmayı taahhüt etti.

Her şirket, ayırdığı bütçeyi kendi belirleyeceği bağımsız kuruluşlara yönlendirecek. Böylece merkezi bir fon yapısı yerine farklı projelerin desteklenmesi hedefleniyor. Bu modelin, blok zinciri teknolojisinin güvenliğini artıracak yeni araştırmaların önünü açması bekleniyor.

Kuantum Sonrası Kriptografi Neden Öncelik Kazandı? Konsorsiyumun ilk çalışma alanı kuantum sonrası kriptografi olarak belirlendi. Uzmanlar, mevcut şifreleme yöntemlerini aşabilecek kuantum bilgisayarların kullanımının henüz yıllar uzakta olduğunu belirtse de, olası risklere karşı bugünden hazırlık yapılmasının kritik önem taşıdığı görüşünde birleşiyor.

Strategy CEO’su Phong Le de şirketin uzun vadeli bir Bitcoin yatırımcısı olduğunu belirterek, ağın gelecek nesiller boyunca güvenli kalmasına katkı sunmayı amaçladıklarını ifade etti. Güvenlik araştırmalarına kaynak ayırmanın, ekosisteme yapılabilecek en değerli katkılardan biri olduğunu söyledi.

Bitcoin Protokolü Değişmeyecek, Hazırlıklar Hızlanacak Bitcoin Security Consortium, Bitcoin protokolünü değiştirmeyecek ve teknik karar alma süreçlerine müdahale etmeyecek. Ağın geliştirilmesine ilişkin tüm kararlar, bugüne kadar olduğu gibi açık kaynak geliştirici topluluğu tarafından alınmaya devam edecek.

Öte yandan kuantum güvenliğine yönelik çalışmalar yalnızca bu girişimle sınırlı değil. Galaxy kısa süre önce Bitcoin Quantum Readiness Initiative programını tanıtarak kuantum sonrası güvenlik araçları geliştiren projelere 5 milyon dolara kadar hibe vereceğini açıkladı. ABD Başkanı Donald Trump da federal sistemlerin 2031 sonuna kadar kuantum sonrası kriptografi altyapısına geçişini hedefleyen iki başkanlık kararnamesini imzaladı.

Bunun yanında Project Eleven, belirli senaryolarda yaklaşık 6,9 milyon Bitcoin’in gelecekte kuantum bilgisayarların oluşturabileceği risklerden etkilenebileceği uyarısında bulundu. Şirket, “Q-Day” olarak adlandırılan dönemin en erken 2030 yılında başlayabileceğini öngörüyor.

Bitcoin ekosisteminde güvenlik yatırımlarının artması, uzun vadede hem dijital varlık sektörünün hem de yatırımcı güveninin güçlenmesine katkı sağlayabilir.

Bu içerik kesinlikle yatırım tavsiyesi niteliği taşımamaktadır. Piyasalar yüksek risk içermektedir ve yatırım kararlarınızı almadan önce kendi araştırmanızı yapmanız önemlidir.

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Bitcoin Is Testing a Crucial Level: Breakout or Breakdown Next?

The Trump administration’s tariff campaign is not winding down. It is widening. New measures rolled out in late July 2026 suggest the White House has no intention of letting up on its protectionist trade agenda, and crypto markets are caught in the crossfire.

On July 20, 2026, President Trump imposed 50% tariffs on select Canadian imports under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. The targeted goods read like an odd grocery list: wine, hockey sticks, and cement. The tariffs are set to take effect after a 30-day window.

Two days later, a fresh round of tariffs between 10% and 12.5% kicked in on imports from over 80 countries, operating under Section 301 authority. These replaced a temporary global surcharge that had lapsed.

A legal detour, not a retreat The Supreme Court complicated things earlier this year. In February 2026, the court struck down broader tariffs that the administration had justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA.

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The administration pivoted to Sections 301 and 232, alternative statutory authorities that give the executive branch significant room to impose tariffs on national security and unfair trade practice grounds.

The average effective U.S. tariff rate now sits at 12.1%, as of July 21, 2026. For context, that figure was closer to 2-3% for most of the post-WW2 era of American trade policy.

USTR Jamieson Greer has also initiated Section 301 investigations targeting manufacturing overcapacity and forced labor practices across multiple economies.

Why crypto investors should be paying attention When tariff announcements land, Bitcoin and Ethereum have historically posted short-term declines, caught up in the broader risk-off sentiment that rattles equity and commodity markets simultaneously.

The more structurally damaging issue, though, is what these tariffs do to U.S. mining operations. ASIC hardware, the specialized computing equipment that powers Bitcoin mining, is largely manufactured abroad. Current tariffs on ASIC imports range from 19% to 57.6%, depending on origin.

Higher hardware costs compress mining margins. Compressed margins force smaller operators to reduce capacity or exit entirely, with consolidation of mining power among fewer, better-capitalized players as the logical downstream consequence.

Longer-term, Bitcoin’s narrative as an inflation hedge remains intact in theory. Rising tariffs push up input costs across the economy, which feeds into consumer prices, which erodes purchasing power.

Investors watching this space should track two things: how courts respond to the administration’s use of Section 301 and 232 authorities as its new legal scaffolding, and whether ASIC import costs force any visible contraction in U.S. Bitcoin hash rate over the coming months.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Bitcoin price has dipped under intense macro headwinds today, July 25, as the Nasdaq-100 index plunged to its lowest level since May 5 over escalating concerns regarding heavy artificial intelligence spending by tech giants.

Summary

Bitcoin price slid 2.49% to $64,017 as tech-driven Nasdaq liquidations and 4.71% Treasury yields triggered defensive profit-taking. Spot BTC ETFs posted their worst inflows in three weeks, drawing just $33 million as buyers pivoted to bonds. BTC is actively testing vital 4-hour ascending trendline support; losing this slope exposes the psychological $60,000 floor. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency trades at $64,017.51, representing a 2.49% decline over the last 24 hours. Daily trading volumes reached $22.84 billion according to CoinMarketCap data, representing rising selling pressure after BTC recently touched an intraday high near $66,900 on July 21.

Market sentiment has turned cautious because Bitcoin increasingly correlates with high-growth technology shares.

Tech equity liquidation triggers crypto selloff Data from TradingView shows that the Nasdaq-100 index closed its previous trading session at 28,128 points, establishing an eleven-week low. This equity drawdown stems from investor anxiety that massive capital expenditures toward AI infrastructure will reduce immediate corporate cash flows and increase corporate debt burdens.

Nasdaq-100 Index | Source: TradingView For example, Alphabet purchased $94 billion worth of SpaceX stock during a June initial public offering, highlighting the scale of tech-sector capital allocation.

Commenting on the move, Peter Andersen, Chief Executive Officer of Andersen Capital Management, noted:

“People are thinking, how do we make sense of all this spending, and how much more patient do we have to be before we actually see it translate to actual profits?”

This capital preservation mindset in traditional finance has prompted defensive positioning within digital asset markets, where traders are taking profits rather than risking capital on volatile assets.

Why Bitcoin institutional demand channels are stalling In tandem with the equity contraction, institutional demand channels for digital assets show signs of constraints. Data from SoSoValue shows that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds registered a mere $33 million in net inflows during the week ending July 24. This cumulative figure marks the weakest weekly capital intake for the investment vehicles in three weeks.

The reduction in capital allocation develops alongside a notable shift in the broader fixed-income landscape. Specifically, the US Treasury 10-year yield advanced to 4.71%, which represents its highest level since January 2025.

Higher yields on risk-free government bonds change the opportunity cost of holding volatile crypto assets. When government debt instruments present guaranteed yields at these levels, institutional allocators frequently pivot away from high-beta risk assets like Bitcoin.

Such a macro reallocation pattern cuts the baseline liquidity available to support crypto spot prices during equity market drawdowns. The drop from the July 21 peak of $66,900 reveals that market participants are opting for cash or fixed-income safety rather than defending local support levels. Consequently, the combination of tech stock liquidations and rising yields has forced a tactical retreat.

Key Bitcoin price technical levels to watch On the 1-day chart, the daily candle prints at $64,017.51, positioning the asset just under its yellow moving average ribbon line of $64,266.14. Long-term overhead resistance remains defined by a higher red trendline sitting at $77,301.64.

Bitcoin price daily chart — July 25 | Source: crypto.news The Aroon indicator on the daily timeframe provides a mixed outlook for long-term momentum; the Aroon Up line measures 71.43%, while the Aroon Down line hovers at 14.29%. A crucial horizontal resistance line is established at $67,303.10, which matches structural distribution zones from early June.

Shorter-timeframe data on the 4-hour chart reveals that Bitcoin is currently testing a vital upward-sloping purple trendline that has served as dynamic support since early July. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index has slid to 35.85, tracking below its yellow moving average line of 42.67, which places the asset near oversold territory. 

Bitcoin price 4-hour chart — July 25 | Source: crypto.news Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator registers a bearish configuration, with the blue MACD line crossing below the orange signal line at -342.39 versus -155.51 amid expanding red histogram bars.

The immediate price action shows a direct cluster of sell orders around the 4-hour trendline, indicating that short-term speculators are actively hedging their spot exposures. Volume bars on shorter intervals have increased during down-swings, validating that the breakdown attempt is backed by active distribution rather than low-liquidity drift.

This alignment between the negative MACD crossover and the breakdown of the short-term moving average suggests that sellers hold the immediate tactical advantage. If the daily close finishes below this slope, the structure transitions from a standard corrective pullback into a broader structural reversal.

Downside risks that invalidate the bullish outlook If this ascending 4-hour trendline breaks conclusively on a daily closing basis, the primary bullish setup will face invalidation. Under this scenario, a breakdown would expose the psychological support floor at $60,000, with a secondary structural horizontal support level waiting lower at $60,688.54. 

Additional downside risks stem from the potential for cascaded long liquidations in the derivatives market if the $63,000 level fails to hold. A breach of these key horizontal baselines would open the path toward deeper retests of May lows, entirely erasing the recovery momentum built over the past three weeks.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

THE STREET: Fewer Americans are broke this year and most still avoid Bitcoin

13h05 ▪ 3 min read ▪ by Eddy S.

Summarize this article with:

Does Bitcoin follow an unchanging rhythm? A viral theory claims its price is locked in cycles of 1,064 days of increase followed by 364 days of decline, with a key date: October 9, 2026. Will BTC escape its grim fate?

In Brief A theory claims that Bitcoin follows cycles of 1,064 days of rise and 364 days of decline, with a pivot point expected on October 9, 2026. This model is based on historical observations but ignores external factors (regulations, economic crises). Open debate: coincidence, confirmation bias, or immutable law of crypto markets? The Bitcoin Cycle Theory: A Mathematical Model That Defies Chance For years, a theory has intrigued crypto investors. Bitcoin allegedly follows a repetitive and predictable cycle, alternating between rising phases (1,064 days) and falling phases (364 days). According to this model, each cycle ends with a precise pivot point, like October 9, 2026… The date on which a new bearish phase would begin. Proponents of this theory emphasize that this pattern has repeated without exception since 2015. Indeed, charts show green zones (rise) and red zones (decline) with a disconcerting regularity.

For them, this is not a prediction, but a mathematical observation based on BTC’s history. However, this approach raises doubts. Financial markets are influenced by external factors (regulations, adoption, economic crises) that can easily disrupt this model. Moreover, Bitcoin remains a speculative and volatile asset, where past cycles do not guarantee future outcomes. So, coincidence?

BTC: A Cyclical Asset or a Mirror of Market Psychology? Bitcoin is often compared to a cyclical asset like gold or technology stocks. But unlike these, its price is extremely sensitive to investor psychology. Halvings, for example, are another well-documented cyclical phenomenon, often correlated with Bitcoin bull runs. Yet, this event has economic foundations (increased scarcity), unlike the 1,064-day theory, which relies solely on past observations.

In a market as chaotic as crypto, investors seek reassuring patterns and see in these different theories a confirmation bias and above all… a regularity too perfect to be ignored. One thing is certain: if this theory proves true in October 2026, it could either strengthen confidence in cyclical models or trigger widespread panic in case of failure.

Is Bitcoin doomed to repeat its cycles? The October 9, 2026 theory fascinates but divides. One thing is sure: markets love narratives. And you, do you believe in this programmed crash of BTC?

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Eddy S.

The world is evolving and adaptation is the best weapon to survive in this undulating universe. Originally a crypto community manager, I am interested in anything that is directly or indirectly related to blockchain and its derivatives. To share my experience and promote a field that I am passionate about, nothing is better than writing informative and relaxed articles.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

US reportedly planning special operations raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and crypto markets are already on edge

Poolin, once the largest Bitcoin mining pool, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in New Jersey. The Singapore-based company, which previously controlled up to 20% of the global Bitcoin hashrate, cited substantial liabilities of approximately $173.1 million against assets valued between $1 million and $10 million. The bankruptcy filing includes two U.S. affiliates and marks the end of Poolin’s mining operations. The company is seeking to sell its remaining mining sites in West Texas through a court-supervised process, with a $52 million stalking-horse bid already in place. This development underscores the ongoing volatility in the Bitcoin mining sector.

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Key Takeaways The bankruptcy of Poolin suggests a shift in the Bitcoin mining landscape, with markets reflecting uncertainty in the sector. Market pricing implies a reduced likelihood of Bitcoin reaching higher price targets by the end of July, with decreased YES percentages across several sub-markets. The filing is consistent with increased sell pressure due to operational wind-downs, potentially affecting Bitcoin price targets negatively. What to Watch Observers should monitor the market reaction to the sale of Poolin’s assets and its impact on Bitcoin’s hashrate distribution. Additionally, key indicators will include the market’s response to potential changes in mining costs and regulatory developments that could further influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory. With only a week left until the end of July, developments in mining capacity and investor sentiment will be crucial in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term price movements.

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Term Structure

Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h August 1 2026 0.2% — — View market → August 1 2026 21.5% — — View market → August 1 2026 4.8% — — View market → August 1 2026 4.4% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.5% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.9% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.2% — — View market → August 1 2026 2.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.2% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.9% — — View market → August 1 2026 1.9% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.4% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.4% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market → August 1 2026 0.1% — — View market →

Yemen’s Houthi movement claimed responsibility for missile strikes targeting Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu on July 25, 2026. The attacks mark the first direct strike on a Saudi refinery complex in four years, and the timing could hardly be more combustible.

Brent crude surged to $100 per barrel in the immediate aftermath, a roughly 40% climb over the course of July 2026 alone, before pulling back to stabilize in the $89 to $90 range.

A coordinated pressure campaign, not a one-off strike The refinery attacks did not come out of nowhere. On July 20, the Houthis announced a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping. Two days later, on July 22, the group claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, the Encelia and the Layla.

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The Bab el-Mandeb Strait sits at the southern end of the Red Sea and connects it to the Gulf of Aden. Roughly 10% of global seaborne trade passes through it.

The Houthis have demonstrated before that they can make shipping through this corridor expensive, unpredictable, and in some cases impossible. Their drone and missile campaign against commercial vessels beginning in late 2023 forced major shipping lines to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks and significant cost to global supply chains.

No casualties from the July 25 strikes have been confirmed. The physical damage to Aramco infrastructure has not been publicly detailed either.

Crypto catches the risk-off flu Bitcoin and XRP both saw price declines following the attacks and the broader surge in regional volatility.

The Houthis have a documented history of using cryptocurrency to finance operations and circumvent sanctions. No specific tokens have been directly linked to the July 2026 campaign in available reporting, but the broader pattern is established. The U.S. Treasury and allied regulators have previously flagged crypto-based fundraising networks tied to the group.

What investors should watch from here The stabilization of Brent in the $89 to $90 range after the $100 spike suggests markets are not yet pricing in a full supply disruption.

Yanbu sits on the Red Sea coast and is one of Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery and petrochemical hubs. Jizan is further south, closer to the Yemeni border, and its refinery serves both domestic demand and export flows. Strikes on both in a single claimed operation signal that the Houthis are targeting infrastructure diversity, not just symbolic value.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Summary Bitcoin is testing the floor of its ascending channel near $63,500 The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement overlaps with channel support and reinforces that level Volume stayed quiet on the drop, which points to profit-taking rather than a breakdown The next 4-hour close on either side of $63,500 decides the near-term trend Bitcoin traded at $64,081 on Binance in the early hours of July 25, sitting just above the base of the ascending channel that has shaped its climb since early July. The pullback started after price stalled at $66,973 on July 21, and it has carried the market into the lower third of that channel. What makes the current level worth watching is overlap. The rising channel floor and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement both land near $63,500, and that turns the zone into the line between an ordinary dip and a broken trend.

Where the channel and the fib agree on one floor A single support line is easy to lose. Two support lines stacked at the same price are much harder to break, and that is exactly where Bitcoin sits on the 4-hour chart. The rising lower edge of the channel runs near $63,500, while the 0.382 retracement sits almost on top of it at $63,517.

The logic behind that overlap is simple enough. When two independent levels converge on the same price, traders tend to defend the zone harder than they would defend either line on its own, and a failure there carries more weight. A clean 4-hour close under $63,500 would take out the channel and the Fibonacci level in a single move, and that is a far sharper bearish signal than either giving way alone.

Level Price Role right now Swing high (0) $66,973 July 21 top and ceiling of the current range 0.236 $64,838 Flipped to resistance, price needs to reclaim it 0.382 $63,517 Overlaps channel support, the floor that matters 0.5 $62,450 First target if the floor breaks 0.618 $61,382 Deeper support that would question the rally Swing low (1) $57,926 Origin of the June to July move The 0.236 flip that now caps any rebound Right now price is boxed between the 0.236 retracement at $64,838 overhead and the 0.382 at $63,517 below. The large red candle on July 24 knocked it out of the upper half of that box, and it has been drifting around $64,000 ever since. For most of the past week the 0.236 acted as a shelf that price rested on. It has since flipped into resistance, and that flip is the reason the short-term bias stays tilted lower. Buyers have to take $64,838 back with conviction before the picture changes, and until they do, every push higher runs into sellers at a level that used to support them.

Momentum cools while volume stays quiet The RSI on the 4-hour chart has dropped to 37 on the fast line, with its signal at 42.76, and both are rolling over from the highs they printed on the July 21 push. A reading in the mid-30s tells you selling pressure has built up and buyers have eased off, though it has not reached the sub-30 zone that flags an oversold snap-back. Momentum is fading here, not reversing. If price defends the $63,500 confluence while RSI sits this low, that combination has set up bounces before.

Volume backs up the calmer read. The slide off the highs arrived without a distribution spike, and no capitulation candle showed up anywhere on the pullback. Quiet volume on a decline usually means holders are trimming positions rather than dumping them in a rush. A break of the lower boundary on heavy volume would flip that interpretation fast, so it is worth watching the size of the candles as much as their direction.

Funding near zero says leverage is not the pressure The OI-weighted funding rate reads 0.0019%, effectively flat. Positive funding means longs are paying shorts to hold their positions, and a high reading usually marks a crowded, overheated market that snaps back hard when it unwinds. This one barely clears the zero line, so Bitcoin is holding its channel without a wall of leveraged longs stacked behind it. According to data from CoinGlass, liquidations over the past day ran to $68.21 million and leaned on longs, a modest figure that fits the profit-taking story rather than pointing to any leverage blow-off.

What the next 4-hour close decides The chart hands traders a clean binary around $63,500.

If the floor breaks:

The 0.5 retracement at $62,450 is the first stop, and it is the line that separates a healthy pullback from a questionable one The 0.618 at $61,382 comes next, and losing it would put the whole June to July advance in doubt If support holds:

Reclaiming the 0.236 at $64,838 is the first job for buyers The $65,500 shelf sits above that A push back to the channel top and the $66,973 high rounds out the upside path With funding flat and no volume spike on the way down, there is no leverage story forcing the market’s hand, so the decision at $63,500 rests on plain spot supply and demand rather than a chain of forced sellers. That gives any breakdown from here a different character than a squeeze-driven flush would carry. The trigger for the other direction stays fixed at one number. A 4-hour close back above $64,838 is what turns this from a market on the defensive into one working toward the channel top again.