A massive pile of data stolen from millions of people’s devices has just been added to a major breach database.
The dataset contains 56 million unique email addresses and 124 million unique passwords across hundreds of millions of records, collected from various infostealer malware sources.
Individuals can check if their email appears in the records on Have I Been Pwned to see if they are affected.
The passwords from the collection have also been added to Have I Been Pwned’s searchable password database.
Users can search specific passwords on the site to check if they have been hacked, but the actual passwords are not shown when searching by email.
This aggregated update of compromised credentials underscores the constant threat of malware attacks.
Users are strongly advised to change passwords immediately on every affected account and enable two-factor authentication wherever supported.
On Friday, the 3rd of July, Bitcoin [BTC] managed to challenge the $63K-level but was unable to surpass it. The bounce from $58.5K at the start of the month appeared set to continue.
According to AMBCrypto, overleveraged short positions were caught off-guard by this move. For Bitcoin alone, $143 million in short liquidations have been recorded so far this month.
The heavy spot ETF outflows indicated that most weak hands may have left the market, and the recent move may be a bullish reversal rather than just a short squeeze.
Overhead BTC supply caps any recovery effort Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView The 4-hour chart revealed a bearish price structure for BTC at press time.
A bounce to $65.2K may be possible though, according to the Fibonacci retracement levels.
Source: Glassnode Zooming out, the Cost Basis Distribution chart highlighted the $64K and $67K levels as the immediate clusters where a sizeable amount of BTC was acquired. The $72.3K and $77.2K-levels also had significant supply.
This suggested that in the scenario of a significant bounce, underwater holders who acquired Bitcoin at these price levels can look to exit the market at breakeven. Large waves of selling would impact short-term upward momentum.
Signs of major Bitcoin volatility ahead Source: Glassnode The long-term holder MVRV compares the current market price to the aggregate cost basis of holders who have held their BTC for 155 days or more. When this long-term holder cohort’s MVRV falls below 1, it means that even these market participants, on average, may be in unprofitable positions.
Deep price corrections and LTH despair have come about in every Bitcoin cycle so far. And yet, in 2026, the LTH MVRV is yet to go below 1. It had a reading of 1.26, at the time of writing.
In a CryptoQuant Insights post, XWIN Japan drew attention to the sharp hike in BTC inflows to exchanges towards the end of June. This trend was true for Ethereum and across the altcoin sector too.
Major inflows signal capital flowing across the entire crypto sector and not just a few select assets.
Source: CryptoQuant Deeply negative ETF flows, falling apparent demand, and factors such as the negative Coinbase Premium Index hinted at a lack of buying pressure in the market.
If liquidity conditions are factored in too, a decisive price move could soon be arriving.
Final Summary Bitcoin’s price structure was bearish, and a bounce to $65K-$67K may be possible in the short-term. Long-term market bottoms tend to be marked by capitulation, and a decisive price move could be looming.
Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl argued that Bitcoin’s (BTC) current price levels could be a good, even “exceptional,” entry point for investors under certain conditions.
According to Pandl, whether Bitcoin’s current levels are attractive depends on three key variables: the Fed’s interest rate policy, the CLARITY Act regulation for crypto markets in the US, and Strategy’s balance sheet structure.
Pandl noted that the outlook was progressing positively in all three areas, pointing out that the Bitcoin price was holding support around the $58,000 level.
A Grayscale executive summarized his personal opinion with these words:
“Bitcoin isn’t currently in a discount zone large enough to be considered a ‘close your eyes and buy’ opportunity. However, if the Fed keeps interest rates steady, the Clarity Act is passed, and Strategy’s recent moves restore confidence in its balance sheet structure, Bitcoin may have reached its cyclical bottom. The trend is positive in all three areas.”
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 78.1%. The probability of a 25 basis point rate increase is priced at 21.9%.
According to market data, Bitcoin has surpassed the $63,000 level with its recent recovery, and is currently trading at $62,864 at the time of writing. BTC’s increase in the last 24 hours is 0.98%.
*This is not investment advice.
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When it comes to mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies, the key hurdle is neither regulation nor price volatility. According to a comprehensive report titled “Passkeys for Bitcoin Wallets: How WebAuthn Replaces Seed Phrases,” published by researcher bcTanji on July 4, 2026, the real obstacle centers on the legacy system of 12 or 24-word recovery phrases at the heart of the user experience.
The report stresses that expecting everyday internet users to write down a random list of words and keep it securely stored for a lifetime is a method better suited to cryptography textbooks, not modern consumer software.
Citing Chainalysis data, bcTanji notes that around 20% of the world’s Bitcoin supply is permanently inaccessible because owners lost their private keys or backups. Additionally, Oobit’s 2026 research referenced in the report finds that 35% of crypto holders have lost access to their wallets at least once, and 31% of those were never able to recover their funds.
bcTanji’s research points to a silent revolution: the crypto sector is ready to consign traditional seed phrases to history, ushered by technologies like WebAuthn and passkeys that promise to overhaul digital wallet security and usability.
Biometrics, Not Passwords: How WebAuthn Transforms SecurityWebAuthn, a protocol standardized by the W3C, underpins the passkey revolution. The report details how WebAuthn relies on asymmetric cryptography—using a pair of public and private keys—to verify users without ever sharing a password. When you create an account, your device’s secure chip (such as Apple’s Secure Enclave, Android’s Titan M, or Windows’ TPM 2.0) generates a unique key pair, with the private key never leaving the device.
Passkeys also offer inherent resistance to phishing, the most common method for crypto theft. As explained in the report, authentication is cryptographically locked to the wallet’s real domain name. Fake phishing sites can’t trigger the authentication process on your device because they operate on different domains.
Technical Hurdles: Why Bitcoin Wallets Lag BehindbcTanji highlights a core technical mismatch preventing the integration of passkeys directly into Bitcoin wallets. WebAuthn relies on the NIST P-256 (secp256r1) elliptic curve, whereas the Bitcoin blockchain uses a different curve—secp256k1.
As a result, a passkey created on a device cannot directly generate a valid Bitcoin digital signature. The report outlines four architectural models developers are using to bridge this gap:
TEE-Based Signing: Passkeys authenticate users biometrically, granting access to a remote Trusted Execution Environment where the Bitcoin signature is generated.
MPC (Multi-Party Computation): The private key is divided into pieces; one is protected by the user’s device passkey, other pieces are stored on servers.
PRF-Based Derivation: The WebAuthn PRF extension enables passkeys to locally generate a deterministic secret that unlocks the Bitcoin key, removing server reliance for each transaction.
On-chain Verification: Smart contract networks like Ethereum can verify P-256 signatures directly on-chain, but Bitcoin’s current setup does not natively support this method.
Layer-2 Wallet Solutions: Where Change Happens FastestThe report notes that the fastest adoption of this revolution will happen in Bitcoin Layer-2 wallets, which cater to less technical users and facilitate frequent transactions. Platforms like Spark stand out for offering a software development kit (SDK) that lets wallet developers integrate passkey-based onboarding with minimal friction.
Spark uses the FROST threshold signature model. Rather than exposing the user’s key share as a plain “word list,” it is secured directly with the device’s passkey. Authentication happens via biometrics, activating the key share on-device and enabling secure signature protocols. The report highlights platforms like General Bread as real-world examples of seamless, seedless, passkey-protected Layer-2 wallets enabled by Spark.
Editor’s Perspective: What’s Next for Crypto Users?Based on bcTanji’s insights and sector forecasts, the report draws several conclusions on how the passkey revolution could transform the crypto experience:
1. Security and Convenience Combined: Previously, setting up a secure wallet required a burdensome backup process. With cloud-synced passkeys, like those in Apple iCloud or Google Password Manager, losing your device no longer means total disaster. Users can instantly regain wallet access from a new phone, eliminating the catastrophic risk of lost seed phrases.
2. Risks of Platform Dependency: A critical warning is the unavoidable dependency on major platforms. If your iCloud or Google account is locked for suspicious activity or you lose all your trusted devices, your synced passkeys—and therefore your wallet funds—could become inaccessible, posing a security trade-off for those who value decentralization and true financial sovereignty.
3. Challenges for Automated Operations: For security, the passkey specification generally demands live biometric verification for each transaction. This complicates automated trading bots and AI-driven wallets, which may need to adapt their models to remain functional in a passkey-first world.
In Summary: As bcTanji’s research notes, the seed phrase model secured true self-custody in Bitcoin’s first decade. But bringing Bitcoin to mass adoption and the next billion users will not rely on pen and paper. Soon, opening a wallet will only require your fingerprint, with robust cryptographic protection working invisibly behind the scenes—more secure and user-friendly than ever before.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Strategy Inc. just did something it swore it would never do. The company announced a Digital Credit Capital Framework on June 29 that formally permits the sale of Bitcoin from its treasury, ending the “never sell” mantra that defined Michael Saylor’s multi-year accumulation strategy.
The framework authorizes up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales through a newly created monetization program. It also greenlights $2 billion in total repurchases, split evenly between $1 billion in Digital Credit Securities and $1 billion in Class A common stock. MSTR shares responded favorably, climbing nearly 7-8% in pre-market trading.
What the framework actually does Strategy currently holds approximately 847,363 BTC, acquired at an average cost of roughly $75,651 per coin. The company’s USD Reserve currently sits at approximately $2.55 billion. Combined with the $1.25 billion Bitcoin monetization authorization, Strategy says it has roughly 25.9 months of liquidity coverage. That’s important because the company’s preferred dividends and interest obligations run about $1.76 billion annually.
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This wasn’t entirely without precedent. In late May 2026, Strategy quietly sold 32 BTC for approximately $2.5 million. It was the company’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022, a small transaction that now looks like a test run for the broader framework.
Why Saylor blinked Strategy has been issuing convertible notes, preferred stock, and other instruments at an aggressive pace to fund its Bitcoin purchases. Those instruments come with obligations, specifically the $1.76 billion in annual dividends and interest.
Saylor and CEO Phong Le framed the shift as a move toward “dynamic capital allocation.” The stated goal is to maximize Bitcoin holdings per share while maintaining enough liquidity to service preferred securities. Rather than maximizing total BTC held, the company is now optimizing for per-share value, which means buybacks funded by selective Bitcoin sales could theoretically be accretive even if the total Bitcoin count drops.
What this means for MSTR investors The $1 billion common stock buyback authorization is particularly interesting. If Strategy sells Bitcoin at high prices and repurchases its own shares at a discount to net asset value, it could increase the Bitcoin-per-share ratio. Sell high on BTC, buy low on MSTR, and each remaining share represents a bigger slice of the Bitcoin pie.
Investors watching MSTR should pay attention to two metrics going forward: the company’s Bitcoin-per-share ratio, which is now the stated optimization target, and the pace at which the $1.25 billion monetization authorization gets deployed.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Iran plans to start charging commercial vessels for transiting the Strait of Hormuz once a 60-day free-passage window expires, a move that has already drawn pushback from Washington and could ripple through global oil and shipping markets. Tehran is simultaneously rolling out a Bitcoin-settled insurance platform for ships making the passage.
What’s actually happening The backdrop here is a US-Iran memorandum of understanding struck in mid-June 2026 that guaranteed toll-free commercial transit through the Strait for 60 days. That window is set to close around mid-August, and what comes after is where things get complicated.
Iran established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority back in May 2026 specifically to oversee “safe passage permits” and collect service fees tied to navigation and environmental measures. The Iranian foreign ministry has been careful to label these as “maritime service fees” rather than tolls, a distinction that matters under international maritime law.
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Washington rejected the proposed fee structure outright, arguing it could disrupt established international shipping norms. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz on any given day. Shipping giant Maersk has voiced concerns that Iran’s fee structure could set a harmful precedent for international shipping.
The crypto angle is real In May 2026, Iran introduced something called Hormuz Safe, a platform that allows Bitcoin-settled, verifiable insurance policies for vessels transiting the Strait, with premiums paid in BTC rather than through traditional banking channels.
Reports from earlier in 2026 indicated that IRGC-linked entities were already accepting yuan or stablecoins for safe-passage permits, with fees starting at approximately $1 per barrel for oil shipments. The Hormuz Safe platform appears to formalize and expand what was already happening in less transparent ways.
Iran has spent years under heavy financial sanctions that cut it off from the SWIFT banking network and most Western financial infrastructure. Crypto, particularly Bitcoin and dollar-pegged stablecoins, offers a way to collect payments without needing access to correspondent banking relationships that sanctions have severed.
What this means for markets On the oil side, the introduction of service fees could generate upward pressure on global crude and shipping costs once the free-transit period expires in mid-August 2026.
Iran’s ambassador to China confirmed the fee plans while assuring that “friendly” nations would receive preferential treatment, effectively creating a two-tier pricing system for one of the world’s most critical trade routes, potentially incentivizing nations to align politically with Tehran in exchange for lower shipping costs.
Traders should watch for two things in the coming weeks: any escalation in rhetoric between Washington and Tehran as the 60-day free-transit window closes, and on-chain data that might reveal the volume of BTC flowing through Hormuz Safe or related platforms.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
David Bailey, founder of Nakamoto, announced that the BIP 110 proposal for the Bitcoin network, which had been scheduled for implementation in the coming weeks, will no longer move forward. The withdrawal of this proposal has reignited the ongoing technical and governance debates that have gripped the Bitcoin community for months.
What was the aim of BIP 110Known as the Reduced Data Temporary Soft Fork, BIP 110 was first introduced by developer Dathon Ohm in December 2025. The proposal intended to place limits on certain types of data included in Bitcoin transactions, which were seen by some as unnecessary. Supporters believed extensive data could undermine Bitcoin’s core role as a value transfer network while increasing the costs of running nodes.
Mini glossary: A soft fork means a backward-compatible rule change in the blockchain, while a node refers to a participant running software to validate transactions and blocks, thereby maintaining network security and decentralization.
The draft envisioned a 34-byte limit for new transaction outputs and an 83-byte cap for certain data types. These limits were designed to last for one year, and coins issued before implementation would not be affected.
David Bailey described the failed soft fork attempt as ultimately positive for Bitcoin, characterizing the cancellation campaign as a hostile takeover attempt.
Weak support, rising oppositionDespite months of discussion, BIP 110 failed to garner enough support. As of February, under 10 percent of Bitcoin nodes signaled in favor, while none of the top 20 mining pools backed the initiative.
Bailey interpreted this not as apathy but as a clear rejection of the proposal at a fundamental level. He labeled the debate a war of information, and claimed some developers sought to steer the network in their own direction.
BitMEX Research warned that the proposed changes could create wallet incompatibilities, disrupt widely used tools, and even put some users’ funds at risk.
Criticism extended further. Some experts noted that strict data caps might still not prevent unwanted transactions. Moreover, there were warnings that implementing the proposal could risk splitting Bitcoin’s network into incompatible versions—echoing splits like Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV in the past.
Arguments over data usage on Bitcoin’s blockchain are nothing new. One side warns that storing excessive data bloats the chain and discourages users from running full nodes. Opponents of restrictions, however, contend that limits could stifle innovation and would be easily circumvented by new techniques.
To demonstrate that large files could still be added under new rules, Martin Habovstiak uploaded a 66-kilobyte image to the blockchain. An October software update last year removed longstanding limits, further fueling the debate. In response, some users shifted to Bitcoin Knots; by February, Knots accounted for roughly a quarter of all Bitcoin nodes.
Network split and transaction load in the spotlightAlthough BIP 110 has now been shelved, discussions about the network’s future are far from over. Some still argue that data-heavy features like ordinals and runes could drive up transaction fees and attract increased regulatory scrutiny. Right now, such transactions make up over 67 percent of all Bitcoin transfers.
TitleDataBIP 110 supportBelow 10 percent as of FebruaryTop 20 mining poolsNo participationShare of Bitcoin KnotsAround a quarterOrdinals and runes transactionsAbove 67 percentThere remains a remote chance that a small group of nodes or miners could attempt to independently activate BIP 110. Such a move could pave the way for two parallel Bitcoin versions: one enforcing stricter data limits, the other maintaining today’s structure.
For now, the risks of major wallet incompatibility or an outright network split are seen as diminished. However, the possibility that the community’s next technical proposal could trigger similar divisions remains a point of concern.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted about $527 million in net outflows over the four trading days ending Thursday, July 2, their eighth consecutive negative week, per The Block's analysis of SoSoValue data. That extends the longest weekly outflow run in the funds' history; before this stretch began in mid-May, they had never strung together more than five net outflow weeks.
The record week arrived despite a strong finish. The funds pulled in $221.72 million on Thursday, their largest single-day inflows since May 5, ending a 10-session outflow streak that had drained about $2.71 billion, The Block reported Friday. Fidelity's FBTC led with $165.96 million, followed by ARK and 21Shares' ARKB at $91.84 million.
The weekly outflows did slow considerably, down from $1.79 billion the week before. U.S. markets were closed Friday for observance of the Independence Day holiday, shortening the week to four sessions.
BlackRock's IBIT, the largest bitcoin fund by net assets, was the only ETF to post an outflow Thursday, losing $40.43 million in its 11th straight day of redemptions, a run that has cost the fund roughly $2.2 billion. The fund now holds $44.91 billion against $59.99 billion in cumulative inflows since launch. The Block reported last week that the average IBIT investor is sitting on a loss of roughly 40%.
The 10-day streak was the second-longest daily run on record, behind only a 13-session stretch from mid-May to early June that drained $4.37 billion. Year to date, the bitcoin funds have now lost a net $5.53 billion.
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Bitcoin traded near $63,150 on Saturday after dipping below $58,000 to a 21-month low early in the week, according to The Block's Bitcoin Price page. The rebound followed weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data that traders read as lowering the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase, though CryptoQuant analysts cautioned Friday that rising exchange deposits point to more volatility ahead.
Ether funds tie their record slide Spot ether ETFs (ETH) lost a net $13.67 million in the week ending Thursday, their eighth consecutive weekly outflow, per SoSoValue data. The run now matches the eight-week record the category set between late February and mid-April of 2025.
The week nearly broke even, though. The funds took in $14.89 million on Wednesday and $29.08 million on Thursday, their first back-to-back daily inflows since mid-June, with BlackRock's ETHA leading Thursday at $29.74 million.
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Ether traded near $1,780 on Saturday, according to The Block's Ethereum Price page. The ether funds hold $9.02 billion in net assets, about 4.4% of the token's market value, and have lost a net $1.44 billion so far this year.
Hyperliquid inflows slow, but remain positive U.S.-based Hyperliquid ETFs (HYPE) took in $4.32 million for the week. That is their smallest weekly inflow level since the funds launched in mid-May, below the $5.87 million posted in the week ending June 12, per SoSoValue data.
The slowdown follows the group's best week on record, a $111.36 million net inflow in the week ending June 26 that was driven by Bitwise's BHYP. The funds gathered roughly $161 million in June overall.
The three Hyperliquid products now hold $336.41 million in combined net assets against $298.24 million in cumulative inflows. Bitwise's BHYP is the largest at $135.49 million, followed by Grayscale's HYPG at $128.58 million and 21Shares' THYP at $72.34 million.
Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.
Bonk [BONK] has emerged as one of the memecoins beginning to make a strong case for itself over the weekend. As Bitcoin [BTC] inched closer to the $64K local supply zone, some altcoins recorded their own short-term gains, outpacing those of BTC in the process.
BONK is one such altcoin. It has rallied by just over 10% in the last 24 hours. Though a weekend, it also recorded a daily trading volume spike of 152%, giving the rally some substance.
Coinalyze data showed that BONK Open Interest was up by 33.9% too. Strong speculative demand and spot volume hinted at a potential BONK bullish continuation in the coming days.
This is why AMBCrypto took a closer look at the price action to understand what trends swing traders can expect next.
BONK’s long-term trend has not yet changed decisively Source: BONK/USDT on TradingView The swing structure of the memecoin was bearish on the 1-day timeframe. This structural break came early in June (green), and a new swing low at $0.00000391 was registered.
Since posting this low, BONK has bounced by 27.88% in 9 days. At the time of writing, it was challenging a local supply zone at $0.000005.
The RSI on the daily timeframe recovered above neutral 50, and the OBV seemed to be approaching the mid-June local high, just like the price. And yet, investors and swing traders must remember that the higher timeframe trend remained bearish.
A price bounce all the way up to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.00000737 might be possible. The $0.0000061-$0.0000073 area is a place that could initiate the next impulse move to keep the swing bearish structure going.
Traders’ call to action – Cautiously bullish Source: BONK/USDT on TradingView The local resistance level at $0.000005 was momentarily breached, but BONK faced a slight setback in recent hours of trading. If this level is flipped to support, it could offer a short-term buying opportunity.
The upward price targets would be $0.0000061-$0.0000073, in line with the higher timeframe structure.
Traders should also keep an eye on Bitcoin trends. A sell-off for the leading crypto could quickly extinguish the flicker of hope in recent days and send BONK prices sliding once again.
Final Summary BONK has made a sizeable price move in the last 24 hours, backed up by strong trading volume. Higher timeframe structure was bearish, but there is a chance the current bounce could extend by another 21%-46%.
XRP price climbed 5% to $1.16 in 24 hours as traders returned to major altcoins and renewed market confidence.
The shift came after increased focus on the growth in payments by Ripple, the use of XRP Ledger, and the growing regulatory temperance.
U.S. Senate advancement on the CLARITY Act also caught the eyes of market participants as wider crypto gains spurred new demand on large-cap tokens.
Crypto Market Recovery Supports XRP Price Rally The wider crypto market rose 0.86% to $2.18 trillion during the latest trading session. Bitcoin price surged past $62,000 and encountered slight selling pressure.
Ethereum also rose beyond $1,700 and then proceeded to move sideways, traders awaiting the forthcoming market direction. Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano also posted slight recoveries.
The rally followed weaker U.S. jobs data that raised hopes of easier monetary conditions. The economy added 57,000 jobs in June, below forecasts of 110,000.
May recorded 129 000, which indicated a steep decline in employment. However, unemployment eased to 4.2%, below the 4.3% market estimate.
CLARITY Act Progress Boosts XRP Sentiment The CLARITY Act continued to be one of the driving factors in XRP traders following the action of regulation in Washington. The legislation might influence the classification of digital assets.
XRP price benefited as a resurgence of interest in tokens that were associated with the SEC/CFTC Digital Commodities category. This category was regarded by traders as a future oversight category.
The latest regulatory advice also encouraged capital rotation to a few altcoins. XRP was special since it was explicitly called in the category.
In the meantime, the investment made by Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen in American Perpetuals Exchange Corporation became refocused. The firm was founded by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s son.
XRP ETF Focus Grows As Bitcoin Funds Rebound XRP funds saw $6.55M daily inflows, lifting cumulative inflows to $1.49B, while net assets reached $987.91M by July 2 overall. ETF flows enhanced the broader mood of the market as spot Bitcoin ETFs reverted to inflows. These funds recorded $221.72 million in daily net inflows on July 2.
The inflows ended a 10-day outflow streak and lifted cumulative net inflows to $51.08 billion. Ether spot ETFs also registered an inflow of net of $29.08 million.
Source: Sosovalue data This has resulted in optimism on greater institutional demand among the key crypto assets. Some traders now expect XRP ETF speculation to gain more attention.
Nevertheless, the further step of XRP can be determined by the Senate advances regarding the CLARITY Act. More straightforward regulations would enhance investor trust in XRP.
How High Will XRP Price Go This Week? As of the reporting, the XRP price traded near $1.1714 on the four-hour chart.
The token traded within an ascending channel that began at the level of approximately $1.00 in early July.
The chart indicates that the next significant resistance is around $1.20. A clear breakout above $1.20 might create space to $1.25 in the short-term.
Traders can then observe the range of $1.28 to $1.30 in case the momentum continues. That zone is significant following the previous slowing of the rally by sellers at the higher levels.
The RSI was close to 79.91, which put XRP in overbought condition on the four-hour chart. The Chaikin Money Flow was 0.21 with the trading on the buying side.
Source: Tradingview If XRP price falls below $1.15, the price could retest $1.10 support. The further decline can weaken the existing channel and decelerate the bullish momentum.
Bitcoin climbed above $63,000 for the first time in two weeks, reversing late-June losses amid a modest rebound in crypto markets.XRP jumped more than 5 percent on the day and nearly 10 percent on the week, overtaking USDC to become the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market value.The rally across major tokens followed a friendlier macro backdrop, including softer U.S. economic data and comments suggesting easing inflation risks, though thin holiday trading may be amplifying price moves.Bitcoin climbed above $63,000 in U.S. morning hours Saturday, up 1.4% over 24 hours and 3.6% on the week, per CoinDesk data, its highest in two weeks and a full reversal of the losses that closed out June.
XRP led the day's majors, up 5.3% to $1.18 and nearly 10% on the week, a move that lifted it past the USDC stablecoin to fifth place by market value at about $73 billion.
The gain came alongside onchain data showing XRP holders at their deepest average losses on record - the kind of washed-out positioning some traders buy against. Ether added 3.2% on the day to about $1,793, up 11.5% over seven days, while dogecoin rose 2.6% and solana held near $82.50 with a 13.2% weekly gain.
The surge extended a week built on a friendlier macro turn. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comment that inflation risks have come down, a soft June jobs report and a squeeze on bearish traders carried bitcoin from below $60,000 to above $63,000 in five sessions.
Trading was thin on Saturday with U.S. markets shut for the Independence Day holiday, the kind of liquidity that exaggerates moves in both directions.
Bitcoin entered the third quarter at 21-month lows and has now recovered the ground lost in June's final slide. Whether the momentum holds turns on the coming U.S. inflation print and on whether buying continues once U.S. desks return from the holiday.
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Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Jun 30, 2026
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Why it matters:
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Debate has once again intensified in the cryptocurrency market over the rivalry between XRP and Bitcoin. On the X platform, popular commentator Digital Asset Investor argued that Bitcoin’s dominance stems less from technological superiority and more from its historical use as the base pairing in crypto trading. In contrast, he suggested that XRP could gain a stronger foothold thanks to its regulatory compliance, increased use of stablecoins, and growing activity on the XRP Ledger.
Base pairings powered Bitcoin’s riseAccording to Digital Asset Investor, early crypto investors were often required to transact through Bitcoin to access alternative digital assets. This dynamic meant that Bitcoin became the central point of liquidity in the sector’s formative years, solidifying its lead in market capitalization.
Digital Asset Investor emphasizes that Bitcoin’s market dominance was driven by its status as the primary trading pair rather than any technological edge.
The commentator highlighted that in previous cycles, BTC/USD pairs were front and center, while BTC/USDT transactions took the spotlight in 2017 and 2018. The subsequent increase in Ethereum and Solana-based trading pairs shows that liquidity can gradually shift toward different networks over time.
Regulation and the impact of RLUSDLooking ahead, Digital Asset Investor believes that regulatory compliance, rather than market speculation, will take precedence in the next phase of the crypto market. In this context, Ripple’s upcoming US dollar-backed stablecoin, RLUSD, could serve as a catalyst for deeper economic activity on the XRP Ledger. Ripple stands out as a US-based fintech company known for its cross-border payment solutions.
Mini glossary: RLUSD is a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar and developed by Ripple. MiCA refers to the European Union’s comprehensive framework aimed at regulating crypto asset markets.
The analyst also pointed out that developers can issue tokens directly on the XRP Ledger—a feature that broadens the use cases within the network. He noted that policies like the US CLARITY Act, Europe’s MiCA framework, and the ISO 20022 payment standards could all help shape institutional involvement going forward.
According to Digital Asset Investor, Bitcoin could eventually give way to another asset, and his candidate for this role is XRP.
On-chain data: XRP Ledger versus BitcoinCiting data from Evernorth, the article reported that RLUSD’s on-chain transaction share jumped from below 1 percent to nearly 12 percent on the XRP Ledger in just 18 months. During the past six months alone, the RLUSD pair with XRP generated nearly $900 million in trading volume. It was also noted that the total number of addresses on the XRP Ledger surpassed 8.3 million, setting a new record high.
IndicatorXRPBitcoinMarket capitalizationBetween $71 billion and $72 billionOver $1.2 trillionTechnical summaryNeutralNeutralCurrent price$1.17$62,767Yet, the size gap between the two assets remains substantial. As of early July 2026, XRP’s market capitalization is estimated between $71 billion and $72 billion, while Bitcoin stands above $1.2 trillion. This underscores the significant ground XRP still needs to cover to catch up over the long term.
Technical snapshot: divergence in the short termAccording to TradingView, Bitcoin is trading near $62,767, with a generally neutral technical outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 49, while MACD and Momentum trigger buy signals. However, the Bull Bear Power indicator suggests that sellers have not entirely exited the picture. For Bitcoin, the central pivot is at $63,515, with immediate resistance at $68,995 and primary support at $53,046.
Meanwhile, XRP is trading around $1.17 and currently shows a stronger short-term outlook than Bitcoin. Its RSI stands at 56.40, with buy signals from both the MACD and Momentum indicators. XRP holds above its 10, 20, and 30-period exponential moving averages, while the $1.19 to $1.20 range is seen as a key resistance zone. Longer-term averages, however, suggest that downward pressure has yet to fully dissipate.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
We will also review the landscape around the Ethereum ETFs in this article.
The last trading day of the previous business week finally brought some more net inflows rather than consistent outflows for the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.
The products tracking the world’s largest altcoin had even more to celebrate at the end of the week, but still closed in the red.
The Good and the Bad: BTC ETF Edition There’s no need to sugarcoat the end result – the week was still dominated by the bears. Investors pulling out funds from the spot Bitcoin ETFs withdrew $526.64 million throughout the four-day trading week. This means that the overall negative streak continues as the products have not seen a single green week in almost two months.
Within this timeframe, the total cumulative flows have dumped from $59.34 billion to $51.08 billion. July 1 saw the most daily withdrawals, with $294.62 million leaving the funds, according to SoSoValue data. Another $222.64 million went out on June 30 and $231.10 million on June 29. That’s all on the negative side.
The bright side was July 2. After 10 consecutive days of only net inflows, the streak was broken as investors poured in $221.72 million. Moreover, this was the highest single-day inflow recorded since May 5. Friday was a non-trading day due to the July 4 holiday, meaning that the week ended on a more positive note.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Net Flows. Source: SoSoValue Ethereum ETF Edition The daily performance of the financial vehicles tracking ETH was even more promising. The Ethereum ETFs saw more modest $30.04 million withdrawals on June 29 and $27.60 million on June 30. However, the tides turned during the next two business days.
Investors poured in $14.89 million on Wednesday and $29.08 million on Thursday, marking a near-monthly high. Nevertheless, the week still ended in the red, with total net outflows of $13.67 million. As such, the negative streak of the Ethereum ETFs continues, with eight straight weeks in the red. The total cumulative flows are down from $12.09 billion in early May to $10.89 billion on Thursday.
You may also like: The Vanishing Bitcoin Bid: Where Are the ETF Billions Going? Bitcoin and Gold Are Bleeding – So Where Is the Money Going? XRP and HYPE Keep Winning the ETF Race as SOL Joins BTC and ETH On the more positive side, though, it was a lot less harmful than the $273.34 million taken out during the previous business week.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a cumulative net outflow of roughly $527 million over the four trading days ending July 2, marking their eighth consecutive week of net outflows and setting the longest weekly outflow streak since the product category launched. While the sector recorded a single-day net inflow of $221.72 million on July 2, ending a prior streak of 10 consecutive trading days with total outflows of around $2.71 billion, the overall weekly outflow trend remained unreversed. Among the products, Fidelity’s FBTC saw a single-day net inflow of $165.96 million, while ARKB (from ARK and 21Shares) posted a net inflow of $91.84 million. In contrast, BlackRock’s IBIT logged a net outflow of $40.43 million that day, marking its 11th consecutive trading day of redemptions, with total outflows reaching roughly $2.2 billion. Separately, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a weekly net outflow of $13.67 million for the week ending July 2, extending their streak of weekly net outflows to eight consecutive weeks and matching the all-time longest outflow streak. However, the sector has posted net inflows for two consecutive trading days, with BlackRock’s ETHA notching a $29.74 million net inflow on July 2. Meanwhile, U.S. Hyperliquid ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of $4.32 million, the lowest single-week inflow since their launch in mid-May, a sharp slowdown from the prior week’s record $111.36 million net inflow.
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Vitalik: Ethereum to enter 'Lean Ethereum' phase, core protocol may undergo full overhaul in the next 3–4 years
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin published a post stating that Ethereum researchers recently held a meeting in Berlin, continuing discussions with client teams initiated in Svalbard in April, to update the blockchain’s long-term protocol roadmap. Vitalik noted that "Lean Ethereum" is not a single upgrade, but a series of protocol evolutions to be rolled out gradually over the next 3 to 4 years—its impact is comparable to The Merge as Ethereum’s second major iteration, while the current phase may mark its third major evolution. He outlined core upcoming changes for Ethereum: replacing direct execution verification with recursive STARK proofs, integrating post-quantum cryptography, adjusting the consensus mechanism to a decoupled design of available chain and finality, and implementing multi-dimensional gas models alongside state structure restructuring. At the state level, Ethereum may form a "two-tier state structure" around 2030, consisting of ~2TB of traditional dynamic state and ~100TB of new scalable state to support scaling needs across different application scenarios. Vitalik emphasized that privacy capabilities will no longer be an add-on feature, but a core goal of protocol design. The system will also rely more on formal verification to boost security, and push the EVM toward higher-level abstractions, with the underlying layer potentially transitioning gradually to RISC-V or leanISA architectures. Key parameters including gas limits, blob sizes, and block times will be adjusted multiple times over the next few years, as Ethereum continues scaling via client optimizations and protocol upgrades. Vitalik concluded that Ethereum is entering a phase of continuous restructuring and scaling, aiming to complete underlying system upgrades without disrupting the existing application ecosystem.
6 minutes ago
The U.S. CLARITY Act has made further progress, while the county sheriffs' organization has shifted to a neutral stance.
The Major County Sheriffs Association (MCSA) has shifted its stance on the CLARITY Act from opposition to neutrality. In a letter to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and Senator Elizabeth Warren, the organization noted that some of its concerns about Section 604 of the bill have been addressed. Previously, the MCSA had warned that the provision could undermine, to some extent, law enforcement capabilities targeting illegal financial activities related to crypto assets. Section 604 is tied to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, with its core focus on limiting liability for developers of decentralized protocols. Supporters argue that developers should not be held liable as intermediaries for user actions, while law enforcement agencies had earlier raised fears that the provision could create regulatory and enforcement "loopholes" that would hinder investigations into cases like money laundering, ransomware, drug trafficking, and terrorist financing. Despite the neutral stance, the MCSA still calls for including local law enforcement agencies in relevant research and coordination mechanisms in future revisions to boost digital asset crime investigation capabilities. Analysts say this change removes a key obstacle to the CLARITY Act’s progress, boosting its feasibility of advancing to a Senate vote. However, opposition from the banking sector to stablecoin yield products and DeFi regulation remains a major uncertainty.
6 minutes ago
Perspective: The next phase of tokenization will be "customized investment portfolios", rather than just improving settlement efficiency.
Thomas Sy, head of multi-asset solutions at New York Life Investment Management (NYLIM), stated that the next core application of tokenization will be "personalized portfolio construction" rather than just improving settlement efficiency or extending trading hours. NYLIM manages approximately $807 billion in total assets, with about $110 billion overseen by Sy’s team. He noted that blockchain technology will enable asset management firms to customize complex portfolio strategies for different investors at scale—a capability the traditional financial system currently struggles to deliver. Sy added that the future of asset management will center on "high customization," and blockchain is the only technological path capable of achieving this at scale. He emphasized that tokenization is not limited to putting ETFs, bonds or private credit on the blockchain; the key is to restructure the very way portfolios are built. He also pointed out that current portfolios often mix ETFs, bonds and private assets, but personalized strategies are difficult to scale due to operational complexity. Tokenization is expected to "embed customization logic into the assets themselves," reducing operational costs and boosting efficiency. Additionally, Sy said stablecoins have become a key entry point for traditional finance to access on-chain markets. Currently, the stablecoin market capitalization exceeds $300 billion, and they are being used for cross-border payments and fund management. He believes this trend will gradually drive institutional demand for on-chain yield-generating assets. On decentralized finance (DeFi), NYLIM is still researching related applications, but Sy stressed that institutional participation requires more mature infrastructure, including improved tokenized collateral, clearing mechanisms and prime brokerage systems.
6 minutes ago
US national debt has hit $39 trillion, sparking long-term concerns, with analysts warning the risk of an unsustainable fiscal path is rising.
The size of U.S. national debt has risen to around $39 trillion, with public debt equivalent to the total U.S. GDP. Annual interest payments have reached roughly $1 trillion, exceeding the defense budget. The U.S. Treasury system traces its origins to the debt consolidation reform promoted by Alexander Hamilton in 1790, when the federal government assumed the war debts of individual states and promised full repayment, thereby establishing the U.S. credit system and laying the foundation for the global status of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries. Today, U.S. Treasuries are regarded as one of the core assets of the global financial system, underpinning the reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar and widely held by central banks and financial institutions worldwide. However, as the debt scale continues to expand, market concerns about its long-term sustainability have intensified. According to calculations from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), when the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds around 210%, the fiscal system may face unsustainability risks. Currently, the U.S. ratio stands at roughly 100%, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects it could rise to 175% by 2056. Analysts note that in scenarios of rising healthcare spending and persistent fiscal deficits, this risk threshold could be reached earlier, and the long-term stability of the debt structure is facing more stringent market and policy tests.
6 minutes ago
Iran’s new supreme leader remains unaccounted for, as Tehran continues to hold mourning events for Khamenei.
According to CNN, mourning events for late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are ongoing in Tehran and multiple Iranian cities, drawing an estimated millions of participants, and will run through July 9. Meanwhile, the international community is uncertain about his successor. Reports indicate his son Mojtaba Khamenei has not made a public appearance, sparking concerns over the power transition and actual governance. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has also warned of security threats targeting the country in the coming days. On the regional front, abnormal shipping activity has been observed in the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple vessels turning back while attempting to transit, and the situation remains uncertain. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have held a phone call and agreed to meet in the U.S. soon, with outside attention focused on further coordination between the two countries amid tensions with Iran.
6 minutes ago
Bitcoin broke through $63,000 this morning, erasing all losses from the end of June, with XRP leading gains among major cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin rose above $63,000 earlier today for the first time in two weeks, up roughly 3.6% from last week and nearly erasing losses from late June. The rally unfolded during thin trading volume for the U.S. Independence Day holiday, with low liquidity widely seen as amplifying short-term volatility. Among major cryptocurrencies, XRP gained 5.3% to reach $1.18, notching a nearly 10% weekly rise and lifting its market cap to around $73 billion, overtaking USDC to become the fifth-largest crypto asset. On-chain data shows XRP holders’ average losses have hit an extreme historical level, leading some traders to view this as a sentiment reversal signal. Ether (ETH) climbed 3.2% to approximately $1,793, with a weekly gain of ~11.5%; Dogecoin (DOGE) rose 2.6%; Solana (SOL) added around 13.2% week-over-week, extending the broader rebound trend. Analysts attribute the rally to Federal Reserve officials signaling easing inflation pressure, weaker non-farm payroll data, and short covering, with Bitcoin bouncing rapidly from below $60,000 to above $63,000. The market’s future trajectory will hinge on upcoming U.S. inflation data and the return of institutional liquidity after the holiday.
The crypto market likes to pretend it’s decentralized until the bluechip crypto’s start moving. Then suddenly everything dances to the same rhythm.
The data on CoinMarketCap shows that the top eight crypto assets by market capitalization: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, TRX, and HYPE command a combined valuation of roughly $1.71 trillion. With the total crypto market sitting near $2.17 trillion, these assets effectively control the direction of the entire industry.
And two names still run the show. BTC accounts for 57.8% of the market while ETH holds another 9.8%, giving the pair overwhelming influence whenever either decides to move.
June Support Levels Became The Battleground For Bluechip Crypto’s Early June produced an important stress test across the bluechip crypto market. BTC established support near $59,249. DOGE found buyers around $0.078, BNB price stabilized near $557, XRP built a floor around $1.05, while SOL defended $60.
TRX held support at $0.31, HYPE protected the $52.99 region, and ETH built demand near $1,559. The interesting part came later.
Four Assets Refused To Break DownDuring late June, BTC, DOGE, BNB, and XRP slipped below those early support zones briefly, suggesting selling pressure remained dominant at that time.
But in SOL, TRX, HYPE, and ETH told a different story. Those assets held their June lows, indicating buyers were willing to absorb supply even while broader market sentiment remained shaky.
July Momentum Is Starting To SpreadWith BTC climbing roughly 9% over the past four days in early July, the rest of the bluechip complex has started responding.
If the rally continues, BTC could revisit $67,050 which is mid-June level, while DOGE may target $0.091, BNB $630, and XRP $1.30, which are also the peak of mid-June.
Meanwhile, SOL has already reclaimed levels above its mid-June high of near $75, potentially opening a path toward $98 now. TRX could look toward $0.37, HYPE toward $76 and potentially beyond $80, while ETH may aim for $2,395.
Additionally, rising 24-hour address activity across several of these networks since mid-June suggests user participation is beginning to improve alongside price action. For bluechip crypto assets, that combination tends to matter.
Story Ends Here
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Bitcoin rose above $63,000 earlier today for the first time in two weeks, up roughly 3.6% from last week and nearly erasing losses from late June. The rally unfolded during thin trading volume for the U.S. Independence Day holiday, with low liquidity widely seen as amplifying short-term volatility. Among major cryptocurrencies, XRP gained 5.3% to reach $1.18, notching a nearly 10% weekly rise and lifting its market cap to around $73 billion, overtaking USDC to become the fifth-largest crypto asset. On-chain data shows XRP holders’ average losses have hit an extreme historical level, leading some traders to view this as a sentiment reversal signal. Ether (ETH) climbed 3.2% to approximately $1,793, with a weekly gain of ~11.5%; Dogecoin (DOGE) rose 2.6%; Solana (SOL) added around 13.2% week-over-week, extending the broader rebound trend. Analysts attribute the rally to Federal Reserve officials signaling easing inflation pressure, weaker non-farm payroll data, and short covering, with Bitcoin bouncing rapidly from below $60,000 to above $63,000. The market’s future trajectory will hinge on upcoming U.S. inflation data and the return of institutional liquidity after the holiday.
Relevant content
US national debt has hit $39 trillion, sparking long-term concerns, with analysts warning the risk of an unsustainable fiscal path is rising.
The size of U.S. national debt has risen to around $39 trillion, with public debt equivalent to the total U.S. GDP. Annual interest payments have reached roughly $1 trillion, exceeding the defense budget. The U.S. Treasury system traces its origins to the debt consolidation reform promoted by Alexander Hamilton in 1790, when the federal government assumed the war debts of individual states and promised full repayment, thereby establishing the U.S. credit system and laying the foundation for the global status of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries. Today, U.S. Treasuries are regarded as one of the core assets of the global financial system, underpinning the reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar and widely held by central banks and financial institutions worldwide. However, as the debt scale continues to expand, market concerns about its long-term sustainability have intensified. According to calculations from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), when the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds around 210%, the fiscal system may face unsustainability risks. Currently, the U.S. ratio stands at roughly 100%, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects it could rise to 175% by 2056. Analysts note that in scenarios of rising healthcare spending and persistent fiscal deficits, this risk threshold could be reached earlier, and the long-term stability of the debt structure is facing more stringent market and policy tests.
7 minutes ago
Iran’s new supreme leader remains unaccounted for, as Tehran continues to hold mourning events for Khamenei.
According to CNN, mourning events for late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are ongoing in Tehran and multiple Iranian cities, drawing an estimated millions of participants, and will run through July 9. Meanwhile, the international community is uncertain about his successor. Reports indicate his son Mojtaba Khamenei has not made a public appearance, sparking concerns over the power transition and actual governance. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has also warned of security threats targeting the country in the coming days. On the regional front, abnormal shipping activity has been observed in the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple vessels turning back while attempting to transit, and the situation remains uncertain. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have held a phone call and agreed to meet in the U.S. soon, with outside attention focused on further coordination between the two countries amid tensions with Iran.
7 minutes ago
BTSE has launched cryptocurrency trading platform BTSE Indonesia in Indonesia.
Blockchain trading and payments firm BTSE Group recently launched cryptocurrency trading platform BTSE Indonesia in Jakarta via a joint venture with PT Aset Kripto Internasional, and completed the rebranding of local licensed platform NVX. It is understood that BTSE will provide trading infrastructure and liquidity support, while the local Indonesian team will handle marketing, business partnerships, sales, and user growth. BTSE Indonesia stated that it has received approval from Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK) to operate as a regulated digital financial asset trading platform. The license is also expected to support its future expansion into cryptocurrency futures and other businesses in compliance with local regulatory requirements. Official data shows that Indonesia’s cryptocurrency trading volume from January to November 2024 reached 556.5 trillion Indonesian rupiah (equivalent to approximately $31.2 billion), with registered cryptocurrency users hitting 22.11 million as of November 2024.
7 minutes ago
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows for the eighth consecutive week, marking the longest such streak in history.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a cumulative net outflow of roughly $527 million over the four trading days ending July 2, marking their eighth consecutive week of net outflows and setting the longest weekly outflow streak since the product category launched. While the sector recorded a single-day net inflow of $221.72 million on July 2, ending a prior streak of 10 consecutive trading days with total outflows of around $2.71 billion, the overall weekly outflow trend remained unreversed. Among the products, Fidelity’s FBTC saw a single-day net inflow of $165.96 million, while ARKB (from ARK and 21Shares) posted a net inflow of $91.84 million. In contrast, BlackRock’s IBIT logged a net outflow of $40.43 million that day, marking its 11th consecutive trading day of redemptions, with total outflows reaching roughly $2.2 billion. Separately, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a weekly net outflow of $13.67 million for the week ending July 2, extending their streak of weekly net outflows to eight consecutive weeks and matching the all-time longest outflow streak. However, the sector has posted net inflows for two consecutive trading days, with BlackRock’s ETHA notching a $29.74 million net inflow on July 2. Meanwhile, U.S. Hyperliquid ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of $4.32 million, the lowest single-week inflow since their launch in mid-May, a sharp slowdown from the prior week’s record $111.36 million net inflow.
7 minutes ago
Data: Nearly 1 million wallets holding the TRUMP meme coin are in the red, with total losses amounting to approximately $3.81 billion.
According to on-chain data, since the launch of Trump’s official meme coin TRUMP in January 2025, among roughly 1.48 million wallets that purchased the token, 988,900 (about two-thirds) were in a loss position as of the end of June, with total realized and unrealized losses amounting to around $3.81 billion. Data shows only 492,300 wallets turned a profit, with total gains of approximately $4.04 billion, primarily concentrated among early participants who bought the token at prices below $1 during its launch phase. Calculated across all token-holding wallets, the overall net profit stood at roughly $236 million. Reports note that Trump’s recently disclosed annual financial statements show he earned around $636 million from the TRUMP meme coin, with total crypto-related revenue exceeding $1.4 billion in 2025. Additionally, Nansen’s analysis of WLFI—the governance token of Trump family’s DeFi project World Liberty Financial—reveals that among the 26,663 wallets that purchased WLFI on the secondary market, roughly 85% have recorded losses totaling around $83 million, while total gains stand at approximately $23 million.
7 minutes ago
A whale accumulated purchases of 24,694 ETH and 211.5 WBTC over four days, with an unrealized profit of approximately $3.61 million.
According to EmberCN’s monitoring, a whale that has been continuously buying ETH and WBTC since July 1 withdrew 4,942 ETH (worth approximately $8.83 million) and 111.5 WBTC (worth approximately $7.01 million) from Binance today. As of now, over the past four days, this whale has accumulated a total of 24,694 ETH (worth approximately $40.26 million) and 211.5 WBTC (worth approximately $13.25 million). At current prices, it holds an unrealized profit of roughly $3.61 million.
Chinese crypto analyst Murphy stated that the current recovery in Bitcoin should be considered a “weak rebound,” and that the short-term target range is between $64,000 and $68,000. According to the analyst, the $70,000 level stands out as the ceiling for a short-term rebound within a bear market.
According to Murphy’s assessment, the average cost for current short-term Bitcoin investors is concentrated in the $64,000-$68,000 range, especially among those holding BTC for less than a month and less than three months. Therefore, the Bitcoin price needs to make repeated attempts to break through this region.
The analyst stated that each time the price approaches this cost range, some weak investors might sell as their unrealized losses turn into profit. Murphy noted that this creates a cycle of “breakout, resistance, pullback, and another breakout attempt,” arguing that this cycle is necessary for the formation of a bottom consensus.
Murphy divided the expected recovery into three main levels. Accordingly, the $64,000 and $68,000 levels are being watched as critical resistances related to the cost zone for short-term investors, while the $70,000 level corresponds to the realized price (STH-RP) of short-term investors.
In on-chain analysis, STH-RP is considered the bull-bear dividing line in terms of market sentiment. According to Murphy, every trend reversal usually begins with a sustained breakout above this line.
The analyst stated that in his baseline scenario, he expects a weak recovery in Bitcoin, with the price potentially rising to the $64,000-$68,000 range. However, he noted that a surprise surge above $70,000 could be considered a strong rebound.
Options market data also supports the levels highlighted by the analyst. Accordingly, the fact that market makers are in a positive Gamma position around $62,000 may lead to volatility being suppressed in this region through hedging transactions. Following a possible upward breakout, the next positive Gamma zone is located in the $66,000-$68,000 range, indicating that this region could also act as a significant resistance line.
*This is not investment advice.
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The Hamster Kombat, PEPE, and BONK rally has put meme coins back in focus as traders rotate into higher-risk tokens.
The top meme coin market cap reached $28 billion today, rising 2.4% in 24 hours.
Meanwhile, the wider crypto market gained 0.83% to $2.17 trillion. Bitcoin price also surged beyond $62,000, which is risk-appetite.
Hamster Kombat Price Soars 82% as HMSTR Targets $0.00045 Hamster Kombat price jumped 82.35% to $0.000361 in the last 24 hours. The action was timed with new speculative demand being attracted to gaming and meme coins.
HMSTR outperformed a mostly flat crypto market, showing strong short-term trader interest. Hamster Kompats are widely regarded as one of the most popular tap-to-earn crypto games on Telegram. Its token contributes to the broader Web3 gaming growth of the Open Network.
Why is hamster kombat $HMSTR up ~84% today??
Is it TON season again 👀 pic.twitter.com/1bBP6UJOfr
— Aisar (@aisarcore) July 4, 2026
The traders are currently observing $0.00030 as the major support zone. A firm hold could lift HMSTR toward the $0.00040 to $0.00045 range. Nevertheless, any withdrawal of that support can lead to a more acute retreat to $0.00020. In the meantime, the momentum remains with active buyers among exchanges.
PEPE Price Gains 6% as Meme Coin Rotation Boosts Trading Activity Pepe coin price surged 6.39% to $0.00000268 over 24 hours, as meme coin demand strengthened. The gain of 0.90% in Bitcoin also contributed toward a broader market sentiment, providing traders with greater confidence in risk assets. There were more active derivatives, as PEPE volume increased by 77% to a total of $662.87 million.
Open interest also increased by 7.18% to $167.84 million indicating new positions were taken into the marketplace.
Source: Coinglass data Traders are now watching the $0.00000255 support level for direction. A firm hold could open another test of $0.000003 resistance. A drop under support could however subject PEPE to more pullback down to $0.000002. This retains short-term momentum pegged on buyer strength.
BONK Price Eyes $0.00000520 as MACD Confirms Bullish Momentum As of the time of writing, the BONK price surged to $0.00000494 on Binance’s four-hour chart. The token was accelerated when the buyers drove the price above the $0.00000480 zone.
The RSI was around 67, which is a good indication of momentum, though it is approaching overbought. The MACD also stayed positive, with the blue line above the signal line.
Source: Tradingview A clean move above $0.00000500 could open a retest of $0.00000520. However, failure to hold $0.00000480 may trigger weakness toward $0.00000460. Deeper selling could expose $0.00000440 as the next support. Short-term momentum is still controlled by bulls.
What’s Next for These Memecoins: Hamster Kombat, PEPE, and BONK Until then, Hamster Kompact, PEPE, and BONK will be pegged to market risk appetite. The majority of supports can maintain upside targets. However, the drop in volume or the pressure of Bitcoin could soon reverse the profits and traders might want to seek confirmation before adding new positions.
Key Takeaways President Trump revealed $1.4 billion in cryptocurrency-related income during 2025 while serving in office Revenue sources included his Official Trump memecoin ($636M), World Liberty Financial ($594M), and stablecoin projects ($197M) In a CNBC interview, Trump maintained the earnings were entirely lawful and without impropriety Ethics watchdogs contend he’s monetizing the presidency while his government shapes cryptocurrency regulations Digital asset companies have poured $189 million into 2026 campaign financing to date President Donald Trump stood by his cryptocurrency earnings following federal filings that revealed he generated no less than $1.4 billion from blockchain-based ventures throughout 2025. His remarks came during a Thursday White House conversation with CNBC reporters.
🇺🇸 NEW: TRUMP ON HIS MASSIVE $1.4BILLION INCOME FROM CRYPTO
"There’s nothing illegal, there’s nothing wrong with it"
He adds: "I've made a tremendous amount of money, and I let people invest it. I don't even speak to them” https://t.co/xxdmUOTBIS pic.twitter.com/Z2NNiXm2fl
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) July 3, 2026
During the interview, Trump asserted there was “nothing wrong” or “nothing illegal” regarding the compensation. He further claimed incomplete knowledge of his portfolio’s full scope, stating to CNBC: “I could know about it. I didn’t.”
The financial disclosure originated from the US Office of Government Ethics. The figures positioned Trump as the highest-earning cryptocurrency participant in American governmental circles.
Revenue Stream Analysis The financial breakdown revealed approximately $636 million connected to his Official Trump memecoin, which debuted one day prior to his inauguration. Nearly $594 million originated from World Liberty Financial, a digital currency enterprise he established alongside his sons. An additional stablecoin operation contributed almost $197 million to the total.
Trump transferred operational management of his commercial interests to his two adult sons upon assuming presidential duties. However, he retained ownership of these assets.
Altogether, Trump documented exceeding $2 billion in earnings from various business activities and investment portfolios in 2025. Cryptocurrency ventures represented the lion’s share of that amount.
Ethical Concerns Emerge Watchdog organizations have characterized the income as exploitative profiteering. Their argument centers on Trump simultaneously influencing cryptocurrency policy frameworks while collecting substantial industry profits.
His current administration participates actively in deliberations surrounding the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Proposed legislation prohibiting central bank digital currencies also awaits his executive approval.
Mary Trump, the president’s family member, remarked during a CNN appearance: “Donald is once again pushing the envelope and nobody is putting the brakes on it.”
She expressed concern that individuals who invested in Trump-affiliated projects may have experienced genuine monetary losses.
These revelations surface as Bitcoin has plummeted approximately 50% from its peak valuation exceeding $126,000 reached in October. The wider cryptocurrency marketplace experienced significant downward pressure during the initial months of 2026.
Industry’s Escalating Campaign Contributions The cryptocurrency sector has significantly amplified its political expenditures. Following an estimated $170 million directed toward 2024 electoral contests, blockchain-affiliated organizations have donated $189 million toward 2026 races through June, based on Public Citizen consumer advocacy data.
That sum constitutes the majority of $294 million deployed by cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, technology corporations, and digital gambling enterprises during this electoral period.
The entire 435-member House of Representatives and 35 Senate positions face voters in 2026. Trump’s presidential tenure extends through January 2029.
Trump previously labeled Bitcoin a “scam” following his initial presidential term. He subsequently reversed this stance before the 2024 election, cultivating relationships with prominent cryptocurrency industry leaders.
CryptoQuant's CEO Ki Young Ju says that Bitcoin may still have another parabolic cycle ahead, but it will likely require a considerable amount of institutional-scale capital inflows.
Bitcoin might still enter another major bull cycle, but the amount of money needed to fuel it has grown dramatically compared to previous bull markets, according to the CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju.
In a recent thread, he argued that the cryptocurrency’s capital efficiency has declined considerably as the asset has matured.
In 2011, he said, roughly $2.7 billion in net capital inflows was enough to drive a rally of more than 55,000%. In the current cycle, however, around $697 billion in inflows produced a return of slightly less than 700%.
The main takeaway is quite simple: Bitcoin is much larger now compared to before, and moving its price requires far more capital.
Bitcoin’s Next Parabolic Move May Need Trillions Market cycles are interesting, and all of them, despite some similarities, are quite different.
According to Ju, in 2011, only $5 million in net inflows was enough to double BTC’s price. In this cycle, that figure increased to roughly $101 billion. He believes that the next parabolic run would likely require trillions of dollars in net capital inflows.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that upside is impossible; it just suggests that the asset may need a deeper institutional bid than in the previous cycle.
You may also like: Bitcoin (BTC) Flashes 3 Bullish Signals: $65K Incoming? Bitcoin Reclaims $60K as SOL, BCH Lead Alts Higher (Market Watch) Why Bitwise’s Matt Hougan Thinks Strategy’s Bitcoin Era Is Fading The analyst also framed the issue in terms of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. This is a metric that values each coin based on the price at which it last moved on-chain rather than simply mutliplying the current spot price by its circulating supply.
Ju said that if Bitcoin can absorb upwards of $1 trillion in realized cap, another parabolic rally remains possible. In practical terms, though, this would require the cryptocurrency to move beyond a retail-led ETF trade and become an established macro allocation for funds, corporations, institutions, and possibly even sovereign entities.
He noted that this shift is still early and hasn’t been invalidated yet.
Gold Comparisons: The Size of the Opportunity? The comparison with gold remains central to Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis. The current market cap of the precious metal, according to popular estimates, is $29 trillion, although keep in mind that this figure can vary depending on the assumed above-ground supply.
By contrast, Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.25 trillion, at the time of this writing.
This gap remains the reason some analysts still see significant room for Bitcoin to grow as institutional adoption expands. Of course, it also highlights the challenge – every new cycle will likely require considerably larger pools of capital than the last.
Why Is Bitcoin’s Realized P&L Ratio Drawing Attention? Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio has fallen to a 43-month low of -0.35, placing the market in one of its deepest realized-loss phases since the collapse of FTX in late 2022.
The realized P&L ratio measures the net share of bitcoin supply being moved in profit or loss compared with total supply. A deeply negative reading means a larger part of the market is realizing losses, often during periods when weak holders are selling into stress rather than strength.
The latest reading is significant because the indicator has not fallen this low since December 2022, shortly after FTX collapsed and bitcoin traded below $16,000. Similar readings below -0.35 also appeared around major cycle lows in 2015 and 2019 before subsequent price recoveries.
CryptoQuant said the indicator has historically marked bitcoin bottoms with strong accuracy. “Historically the indicator has marked BTC bottoms with extreme precision,” the analytics firm said.
Does Extreme Loss-Taking Point to a Market Bottom? The data does not confirm that bitcoin has already bottomed, but it shows that market-wide stress has reached levels normally associated with late-stage capitulation. In previous cycles, deeply negative realized profit and loss readings appeared when selling pressure had already forced many investors to exit at a loss.
That dynamic can matter because realized-loss phases often remove excess risk from the market. When investors who bought higher are forced out, the remaining holder base may become less sensitive to short-term price weakness. That can create better conditions for a recovery if new demand returns.
Bitcoin recently fell to a near 2-year low of $58,190 on June 25 after a roughly 50% drawdown from its October high of $126,080. Since then, the asset has recovered more than 7%, while sentiment has improved cautiously from depressed levels.
The decline was partly blamed by several analysts on concerns around Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, after its Stretch preferred stock offering fell below its $100 par value to under $75. The move raised questions about the sustainability of its dividend structure and added pressure to an already weak bitcoin market.
Investor Takeaway The realized P&L ratio shows bitcoin is trading through a severe loss-taking phase. Historically, those conditions have appeared close to major bottoms, but the indicator is better viewed as a stress signal than a timing tool.
How Are Analysts Reading the Latest Drawdown? Some market analysts argue that the latest sell-off may have cleared excess leverage and brought bitcoin closer to a durable low. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said the Strategy-related stress helped remove risk from the market.
“As the market continues to sort things out, I’m convinced the bottom is closer than ever — and that we will enter a new bull market in the fall,” Hougan said.
That view matches the broader interpretation of realized-loss data. When investors are selling at a loss after a deep drawdown, the market is often moving from panic selling toward exhaustion. The key question is whether demand can return quickly enough to absorb supply from remaining sellers.
Bitcoin’s current relationship to realized price also supports the idea that the market is in a historically discounted zone. Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston said bitcoin is trading only 16% above realized price, the network’s aggregate on-chain cost basis. He noted that similar levels have historically been followed by strong forward returns of 41% over 6 months and 81% over 12 months.
What Are the Risks for Bitcoin From Here? The main risk is that bottom signals can appear before the final low is fully in place. A deeply negative realized P&L ratio shows heavy market stress, but it does not prevent another wave of selling if macro conditions worsen, leverage returns too quickly, or confidence in large bitcoin treasury holders weakens further.
That makes the current setup more useful for long-term investors than short-term traders. The data suggests bitcoin is no longer priced like a euphoric market, but it does not remove volatility risk. A recovery would still need confirmation from stronger spot demand, improving liquidity, and stabilization in broader risk assets.
Livingston argued that waiting for a perfect entry can be costly because bottoms are rarely obvious in real time. “Waiting for ‘the bottom’ is a wonderful plan with one flaw. The bottom never announces itself,” he said.
For investors, the message is not that bitcoin has no further downside. It is that the market has entered a zone where realized losses, sentiment damage, and reduced leverage are beginning to resemble prior late-cycle washouts. Whether that becomes a durable bottom depends on whether new demand can turn stress into accumulation.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
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US spot Bitcoin ETFs hemorrhaged more than $2 billion in net outflows across a two-week stretch in late May and early June, part of a broader 13-day redemption streak that ultimately drained approximately $4.4 billion from the products.
BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF by assets, was the primary source of the bleeding. The fund saw $1.3 billion in outflows in a single week, with multiple individual trading days exceeding $500 million in redemptions.
What triggered the exodus The outflows didn’t happen in a vacuum. Bitcoin’s price declined from early-year highs above $80,000 to a range between $60,000 and $73,500 during the same period.
Analytics firms including SoSoValue, CoinShares, and Glassnode tracked the selling in real time. The consensus explanation involves a cocktail of factors: shifting market sentiment, geopolitical tensions, rising Treasury yields, and recalibrated expectations around interest rate cuts.
Post-rally profit-taking played a role too. Bitcoin had a strong run earlier in the year, and a portion of the selling likely reflects investors simply locking in gains rather than making a broader bearish call on the asset class.
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Ethereum ETFs weren’t spared either. Those products faced their own extended outflow period, though Bitcoin funds dominated the overall redemption numbers by a wide margin.
Context matters more than the headline number Total assets under management across spot Bitcoin ETFs sat near $100 billion to $103 billion before the May pullback began. That means the two-week outflow represented roughly 2% of total AUM. The broader 13-day streak, at $4.4 billion, still only accounted for about 4% to 4.5% of the total pie.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts made a similar observation. With nearly $100 billion still parked in these products, the vast majority of investors held firm. The outflows, in their view, amounted to constrained noise rather than a structural shift in demand.
Cumulative inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs since their January 2024 launch had reached approximately $58 billion by April 2026. Even after the May-June selling, the products remained firmly in net-positive territory on a lifetime basis.
Signs of a floor emerging By early July, the selling pressure showed signs of exhaustion. After ten consecutive days of outflows, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a modest net inflow of roughly $221 million to $222 million.
What this means for investors The outflow episode highlights a tension that will define Bitcoin ETFs going forward. These products make it extraordinarily easy to buy Bitcoin exposure. They also make it extraordinarily easy to sell.
Traditional Bitcoin holders who custody their own assets face friction when selling: transfers, exchange deposits, withdrawal limits. ETF holders can redeem with a single click during market hours. That convenience cuts both ways, and it means ETF flow data will increasingly serve as a real-time sentiment gauge for institutional Bitcoin appetite.
The competitive landscape among ETF issuers also matters here. BlackRock’s IBIT bore the brunt of the outflows in part because it holds the most assets. When large institutional investors rebalance or de-risk, they sell what they own the most of.
For investors watching from the sidelines, the key metric to track isn’t any single day’s flow number. It’s the cumulative inflow trend over rolling three-month and six-month windows. At $58 billion in lifetime inflows, the structural bull case for Bitcoin ETF demand has significant cushion.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
PANews July 4 news, according to Bitcoin News, the latest data from the U.S. Federal Reserve shows that seasonally adjusted broad money supply (M2) rose to $23.05 trillion in May, breaking the $23 trillion mark for the first time and hitting a record high. M2 increased from $22.80 trillion in April to $23.05 trillion that month, a single-month gain of about $247.8 billion; it has risen for five consecutive months since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative expansion of roughly $623 billion, indicating a continued recovery of liquidity in the U.S. financial system.
This change has sparked market debate over the direction of monetary policy. Some critics argue that the Fed may be releasing liquidity again through a form of “stealth easing”; but mainstream economists note that money supply typically grows naturally with the size of the economy, and part of the current upturn also reflects a mean reversion after the previous contraction.
At the asset level, the market is once again focusing on the “currency devaluation trade” logic. Because Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins, it is viewed by some investors as a hedge against fiat expansion, and this narrative has been reinforced again as M2 hits new highs. At the same time, global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, further strengthening market demand for “fiat credit hedge assets.” Data shows that the multi-year gold purchasing trend among central banks is still ongoing.
The next M2 data release is scheduled for late July. The market will watch whether liquidity expansion continues and whether the Fed’s policy path will shift toward a looser cycle.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has delivered nearly identical returns under President Donald Trump’s second term and former President Joe Biden’s administration, suggesting macroeconomic conditions, not politics, have been the dominant force.
BTC Strongest During Obama Second TermIn a podcast on June 30, analyst Benjamin Cowen compared Bitcoin’s price action across recent U.S. presidential administrations and found that the current cycle is tracking Biden’s term far more closely than many investors may expect.
After 524 days in office, Bitcoin was down 43.8% during Biden’s presidency.
At the same point in Trump’s second term, the cryptocurrency was down 41.1%, a remarkably similar trajectory despite vastly different political environments.
By comparison, Bitcoin’s strongest presidential-cycle performances came during Barack Obama’s second term and Trump’s first administration.
However, Cowen noted those gains coincided with Bitcoin’s much smaller market capitalization.
Macro Shift Changed The CycleCowen argued the primary difference between earlier Bitcoin bull markets and the current cycle has been the broader macroeconomic backdrop.
Unlike previous cycles, investors have had to contend with persistent inflation, higher unemployment concerns and tighter financial conditions, all of which have weighed on risk assets.
Rather than attributing Bitcoin’s weakness to politics, Cowen said macroeconomic conditions have largely dictated market performance.
Cowen also highlighted the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) as an important macro indicator.
He noted that the dollar’s recent recovery closely resembles its behavior during Trump’s first administration, when it initially weakened after inauguration before recovering and acting as a headwind for risk assets.
Based on that historical comparison, Cowen expects the dollar could continue strengthening toward the 105-106 range, potentially creating additional pressure for cryptocurrencies through the remainder of the year.
History Suggests Bottom Could Come Later This YearDespite the prolonged correction, Cowen pointed to similarities with the previous market cycle.
During Biden’s presidency, Bitcoin experienced a brief counter-trend rally in late summer before making one final decline that ultimately marked the cycle bottom ahead of the next bull market.
If the current cycle continues following that historical pattern, Cowen believes Bitcoin could establish its bottom later this year before beginning a new expansion phase in 2027.
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The technical outlook for Bitcoin has drawn renewed attention, with prominent analyst John Bollinger signaling a possible shift in trend for the BTC/USD pair. Bollinger, the creator of the widely used Bollinger Bands indicator, noted that a key W-shaped reversal pattern is taking shape in Bitcoin’s price. He suggests that if this pattern completes, it could mark the end of the downtrend that has persisted since October 2025.
W formation stands out in technical analysisFamed for developing the Bollinger Bands, John Bollinger underscored in a post on X that although Bitcoin has recently failed to maintain several bullish signals, strengthening the case for the prevailing downtrend, its current price structure aligns with a W reversal pattern resembling a double bottom.
John Bollinger observed that previous bullish structures in Bitcoin have broken down, reflecting the strength of the bear trend, yet he indicated the emerging W formation could signal a trend reversal.
Typically, the W pattern is validated after two bottom formations and a subsequent breakout above an intermediate resistance level. Bollinger’s shared chart illustrates that Bitcoin’s daily price movements are tracking along the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. He further explained that the pattern is fractal in nature, observing similar smaller-scale top and bottom formations within the same structure, and identified the W pattern on the weekly chart as well.
Bollinger has maintained an optimistic view on Bitcoin in recent months. Early in May, he disclosed that he had opened a new long position in a Bitcoin investment vehicle.
Market signals and expectations divergeSeveral price indicators have begun to emit signals not seen since the last bear market in 2022. However, a broad segment of market participants believes that the ultimate market bottom has yet to be formed on a macro scale. According to this view, a definitive bottom may not emerge until the third quarter or later.
ETF inflows and the $60,000 support area under watchOn-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. from CryptoQuant emphasized the importance of renewed interest from institutional buyers. Last Friday, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs registered their first net inflow in ten days, interpreted as an early sign that selling pressure on the institutional side could be abating.
Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin is now in the late stages of its bear cycle but noted that the ETF sector has shown an initial indication that outflows are slowing. The net inflow reached $220 million. While not a huge amount in absolute terms, this was seen as a supportive factor for Bitcoin’s price direction.
Daan Crypto Trades remarked that although the $220 million inflow is not overwhelmingly large, it could provide crucial support, adding that Bitcoin’s resilience around the $60,000 level, despite significant outflows, signals a strong absorption phase.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the significance of the $60,000 mark. According to him, if Bitcoin posts a stronger reaction in the coming week, this level could become a major support area where substantial selling is being absorbed. The simultaneous rebound in institutional demand and the emergence of the W pattern has led investors to focus closely on these levels in the short term.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Strategy’s new $1.25B Bitcoin sale plan continues to elicit mixed reactions. Galaxy Research is the latest to weigh in on the monetization framework that the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury firm released earlier this week.
According to Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s Head of Research, the markets “like” the new plan, but cautioned that it does not eliminate the underlying “structural risks.”
This was a smart move by Strategy, but it may not resolve structural issues forever. Strategy still has a large preferred stack, and it still has large recurring obligations.
As part of the plan, Strategy raised $1 billion in cash and formalized a 12-month cash reserve buffer. That effectively provided about 17 months of coverage for its obligations.
Additionally, it approved selling up to $1.25B in BTC to fund the interest obligations.
MSTR rallied from $82.5 to $100, while preferred stock STRC jumped 26% from a record low of $71 to $90. Although STRC remained below its $100 peg, Galaxy said the rebound reflected positive market sentiment toward Strategy’s plan.
Source: STRC, TradingView But Galaxy’s Thorn added that Strategy’s obligations will increase in the next two years as $6.7B in convertibles will be due. He warned that Strategy’s BTC sales would effectively exacerbate MSTR and STRC weakness.
Galaxy’s ‘middle ground’ proposal to Strategy For Thorn, apart from cash reserves, MSTR and BTC sales, there is a fourth option that can address Strategy’s cash-flow concern.
A company with 847,363 BTC should not let a temporary cash-flow concern become an existential narrative crisis. Strategy should explore generating income from the BTC stack without necessarily selling spot BTC.
Thorn said this could be in the form of BTC lending or options strategies on a limited amount of BTC. This would reduce other issues like counterparty risk. In fact, Metapanet has leveraged options strategies for cash flow and BTC accumulation.
The analyst concluded that this was a ‘middle ground’ that does not dilute MSTR holders and sell BTC, which should also be considered.
This was different from JPMorgan analysts, who recommended increasing the cash reserve buffer from 17 months to 2 or 3 years by selling more MSTR, not its BTC holdings.
Galaxy’s proposal seemed apt because it’s been tested by Metaplanet. And it would not affect MSTR and BTC holders. It would also raise more cash flow to cover Strategy’s obligations if the risks are well managed.
Final Summary Galaxy urged Strategy to consider using a limited amount of its BTC for cash income generation instead of selling BTC or MSTR dilution. However, JPMorgan proposed increasing the cash buffer up to 2-3 years by selling more MSTR, but not its BTC stash
Why Did Draper Deny Moving Bitcoin? Billionaire investor and longtime Bitcoin bull Tim Draper denied moving his Bitcoin after blockchain analysts linked him to a large transfer of BTC to Coinbase Prime.
“Haven’t touched my BTC,” Draper said Friday, adding that he still expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 within one year.
The denial followed a report from blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, which said a wallet “possibly linked” to Draper had transferred 1,000 Bitcoin, worth about $62 million, to Coinbase Prime. The claim was based on data from Arkham, which labels the wallet as “Tim Draper?” through its AI-powered entity prediction feature.
The case shows how quickly large blockchain movements can affect market narratives, especially when a well-known investor is attached to the wallet. It also shows the limits of on-chain attribution. A blockchain transfer can be verified, but wallet ownership often depends on labels, historical patterns, exchange interactions, and probability-based analysis rather than direct confirmation from the person involved.
What Does The Wallet Attribution Issue Show? Arkham’s label used a question mark, reflecting a lower-confidence attribution rather than a confirmed identity. That distinction matters because investor behavior can be misread when analytics tools attach a public figure or institution to a wallet that has not been definitively verified.
The wallet involved in the transfer has interacted with Coinbase Prime several times over the past year. Its history includes a 1,000 Bitcoin transfer from Coinbase Prime on July 9, 2025, when BTC traded around $115,880 per coin. Those connections may support an analytics-based attribution, but they do not prove that Draper controlled the wallet or approved the latest movement.
For the market, the difference is important. A confirmed transfer by Draper could be read as a change in posture from one of Bitcoin’s most visible early backers. An uncertain wallet label creates a weaker conclusion: a large holder moved coins to an institutional custody or trading venue, but the identity and intent remain unconfirmed.
That gap is central to blockchain analytics. Public ledgers make transfers transparent, but transparency does not automatically produce certainty. Exchange deposit addresses, custody structures, institutional accounts, and delegated asset management can make ownership harder to establish from the outside.
Investor Takeaway Large wallet movements can influence sentiment, but attribution risk is high when labels are probability-based. Investors should separate confirmed transaction data from unverified claims about who controls a wallet or why assets moved.
Why Does Draper’s Bitcoin History Matter? Draper remains one of Bitcoin’s best-known early institutional-era supporters. In 2014, he won a U.S. Marshals Service auction for nearly 30,000 Bitcoin seized by U.S. authorities from Silk Road-related holdings.
He paid about $18.7 million for the BTC, equal to roughly $632 per Bitcoin. At the values cited in the source material, those holdings would now be worth about $1.9 billion. That history makes any wallet activity linked to Draper market-sensitive because traders associate him with long-term conviction rather than short-term trading.
The latest denial therefore reduces the immediate significance of the reported transfer. If Draper’s statement is accurate, the movement should not be treated as evidence that he is selling or reducing exposure. It instead becomes a case study in the risk of relying too heavily on wallet labels when interpreting institutional or whale behavior.
Coinbase Prime’s role also complicates the reading. Transfers to institutional platforms can serve several purposes, including custody changes, collateral management, settlement preparation, or trading. Without direct confirmation, a deposit to a prime brokerage venue does not automatically mean a sale is imminent.
How Does This Fit Draper’s $250,000 Forecast? Draper also repeated his long-running view that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 within one year. The target has become closely associated with him, although earlier timelines have not been met.
He has held the $250,000 forecast since at least 2018, initially expecting Bitcoin to reach that level by late 2022 or early 2023. Bitcoin’s highest recorded price cited in the source material was $126,080 on Oct. 6, 2025, while it was trading around $62,530 at publication time.
The gap between Draper’s forecast and current pricing keeps his prediction in the high-conviction bull camp. Other Bitcoin supporters have also argued for much higher long-term levels, with some targets ranging from $500,000 to $1 million. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has said Bitcoin could reach as high as $700,000 if institutional adoption rises significantly. Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has taken the opposite view, repeatedly arguing that the asset lacks intrinsic value and could fall to zero.
Prediction market pricing is more conservative. Polymarket’s Bitcoin price market for 2026 showed traders clustering around the $65,000 to $70,000 range, with bets concentrated near $68,000.
The result is a familiar split in Bitcoin sentiment. High-profile bulls continue to argue that institutional adoption and supply dynamics can drive another major repricing. Market-based expectations, however, remain closer to current levels. Draper’s denial of the reported transfer helps preserve his public long-term stance, but the episode also shows that in a transparent market, even uncertain wallet labels can quickly become part of the trading narrative.
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $60,000 mark following a sudden shift in investor sentiment. This price recovery has also reached the spot Bitcoin ETF market, which had been experiencing sustained outflows in recent weeks.
First net inflow in the ETF market after two weeksAccording to data from SosoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $221 million on the last trading day of June 2, 2026. This marked the end of a 10-day period during which funds experienced uninterrupted capital outflows.
The recent surge comes after a period of pronounced volatility, during which investors aggressively withdrew funds from Bitcoin ETFs. With this latest inflow, the funds have attracted fresh capital for the first time in nearly two weeks.
The $221 million that flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs on June 2 ended a 10-day net outflow streak, signaling renewed demand in the market.
Bitcoin price rallies above $60,000This turnaround in ETF flows coincided with a strong rebound in the price of Bitcoin. After trending downward for an extended period, the asset has recently staged a recovery from local lows, now stabilizing above the $60,000 threshold.
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin has climbed approximately 7% over the past three days and was trading at $62,536 at the time of writing. This rebound comes after steep daily losses that were seen in previous weeks.
Rising nearly 7% in just three days, Bitcoin reached $62,536 and reversed the downward trend of recent weeks.
Institutional interest could be returningThe return of capital to ETFs is seen as an indicator that institutional investor confidence may be recovering. The improved outlook in the market supports expectations of stronger price action in the weeks ahead.
Analysts suggest that if the current upward momentum continues, Bitcoin could make another attempt to reclaim the $63,000 level. Sustained demand may even pave the way for a move toward previous record highs.
SosoValue, a data platform tracking digital asset fund flows, compiles daily inflows and outflows in the ETF market. As a result, the platform’s data is closely watched by investors seeking to gauge the direction of institutional demand.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
PANews July 4 news – David Bailey, Chairman of Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto and Chairman of Bitcoin Magazine, stated that the failure of the long-contested “BIP-110” incident is, in terms of outcome, “extremely bullish” for Bitcoin, and believes it further validates the network’s resistance to attacks and splits.
David Bailey said the incident is regarded as a multi-year “governance-layer conflict attempt,” involving multiple battles such as mining pool competition, client fork proposals, UASF (User Activated Soft Fork) mobilization, disputes over node consensus manipulation, and large-scale information warfare across social media and developer communities. Even under a highly complex coordination and communication environment, the relevant camp still failed to gain significant hashrate support, accounting for “not even 1%,” showing that miners and economic participants did not deviate from mainstream social consensus.
David Bailey stated that this process validated the core feature of Bitcoin’s governance structure: final consensus is jointly formed by users, miners, developers, and industry participants, rather than dominated by a single group. At the same time, he emphasized that historically similar events (such as BIP148) have already proven that miners find it difficult to break away from social consensus, and this incident further strengthens that conclusion. However, he also pointed out that the incident exposed information coordination fragility within Bitcoin’s core development collaboration layer, which currently relies excessively on social media and public communication mechanisms, making it susceptible to information manipulation and the “amplification effect of AI-generated content,” thus significantly raising community collaboration costs.
David Bailey also mentioned that the controversy consumed a large amount of community time and attention resources, and called on the industry to participate more actively in the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) governance process to avoid being stuck in inefficient debates for prolonged periods. The Bitcoin network demonstrated strong resistance to splits in this incident, and he emphasized that “technical rationality will ultimately prevail.”
Jordi Visser, an experienced macro investor with over 30 years of experience and author of VisserLabs Substack, made groundbreaking statements about developments in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, the Fed’s monetary policies, and the future of the cryptocurrency market in his latest broadcast.
Visser argued that investors were greatly mistaken about Bitcoin, stating, “Everyone gave up on Bitcoin at exactly the wrong time.”
Visser stated that the recent stagnation and downward trend in the cryptocurrency markets has led to a significant loss of confidence among investors, summarizing the current market situation as follows:
“If you asked 100 people who have never invested in Bitcoin, all 100 would say ‘I’m not interested.’ Of those who are in the market, at least 60% to 70% are questioning their investment. ‘Losing hope’ is an understatement to describe the situation. However, on the technical side, we are finally starting to see positive divergences.”
Visser argued that while Bitcoin’s price has fallen below its February lows, it has managed to hold there. However, he emphasized that investors should not rush to judgment, advocating for caution until the price breaks above the 200-day moving average (currently above $70,000). He predicted that a new era in cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence would begin after this breakout.
The experienced investor, describing the current state of technology and AI stocks as a “mid-cycle slowdown,” noted that the aggressive upward trend in infrastructure and chip manufacturers (Micron, Nvidia, etc.) has now entered a more volatile consolidation phase.
Visser stated that the “easy profit” period achieved during the first wave of AI is over, and that holding technology stocks in portfolios for the long term will become difficult for institutional investors due to high volatility. He argued that this situation could turn into a major advantage for Bitcoin, whose volatility is relatively lower compared to technology indices, and that capital could shift back to crypto assets.
On the macroeconomic front, Jordi Visser, who also evaluated the Fed’s policies, believes that the market has overreacted to the hawkish statements of Fed officials. Stating that there has been a tremendous increase in productivity with the integration of artificial intelligence agents into the business world, Visser claims that traditional macro analysts have underestimated the deflationary effect of AI.
According to Visser, the cost reductions and efficiencies provided by artificial intelligence will bring down inflation, especially in established sectors such as insurance and healthcare. This will allow the Fed to keep interest rates stable or lower them for longer than market expectations.
*This is not investment advice.
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Iran just turned one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints into a geopolitical loyalty program. And it takes Bitcoin.
Iran’s ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, announced during the World Peace Forum in Beijing on July 4 that China and other allied nations will receive reduced transit fees for navigating the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway has become what Tehran now classifies as a matter of “national security” following a four-month conflict involving the United States and Israel.
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The toll booth at the center of global trade Tehran is reportedly considering imposing tolls on vessels traversing the strait, with fees rumored to reach up to $2 million per ship. Iran has signaled it will accept payments in Bitcoin and USDT, the Tether stablecoin. The fee reductions for China and allied nations function as a tiered pricing system. Iran plans to collaborate with Oman to ensure smooth transit operations under the new arrangement.
Why crypto fits Iran’s playbook Iran has operated under heavy US and international sanctions for years, which severely restrict its access to the traditional banking system. Bitcoin and USDT allow value transfer without relying on intermediary banks that might freeze or flag transactions. Stablecoins like USDT offer dollar-equivalent value without actually touching the US banking system.
Earlier in 2026, Tehran allowed selective transit of Chinese vessels through the strait during a period of broader blockades, illustrating the deepening bilateral relationship between the two countries. Iran has also been mining Bitcoin domestically for years, using its subsidized energy to power mining operations.
What this means for crypto investors No significant price movements in either Bitcoin or USDT were reported in direct response to the announcement.
The risk side is equally important. US regulators and Treasury officials have been cracking down on sanctions evasion through crypto. Tether, which has previously cooperated with law enforcement to freeze wallets, could find itself in an uncomfortable position between compliance and its largest growth markets.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Recent technical and on-chain data suggest that the selling pressure on Bitcoin may be easing. Analysts are noting that signals seen ahead of previous strong recoveries are now reappearing, increasing optimism among investors that a rebound could be on the horizon.
Noticeable changes in technical indicatorsBitcoin is currently trading at $62,502. Over the past 24 hours, its price has risen by 1.26%, with daily trading volume at $25.47 billion and a market capitalization standing at $1.25 trillion. The world’s largest cryptocurrency commands a market dominance of 57.99%.
Technical analyst Ali Martinez reports that three rarely-seen bullish signals have emerged simultaneously on Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart. Martinez believes these indicators are being closely watched by the market to gauge Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
Ali Martinez observes that three strong technical signals appearing at once on Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart point to a loss of momentum in the most recent selling wave.
The Tom DeMark Sequential (TD Sequential) indicator has generated a buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is displaying a bullish divergence. This divergence suggests that although prices have continued to move down, underlying momentum is starting to build. Additionally, a reversal in the SuperTrend indicator toward a bullish direction further supports a potential short-term recovery.
Mini glossary: The TD Sequential is a technical indicator designed to identify potential turning points in the market. The SuperTrend indicator uses price and volatility data to track short-term trend changes.
Should these positive signals be confirmed by sustained buying in the spot market, analysts identify $65,400 as the next significant target. This level also coincides with a resistance line highlighted by the TD Sequential indicator.
On-chain data points to a potential bottomOn-chain metrics are painting a similar picture alongside technical analysis. Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reports that the realized profit and loss ratio for Bitcoin has dropped to minus 0.35—its lowest level in the past 43 months.
CryptoQuant notes that, historically, a sharp decline in this indicator has typically occurred near long-term price bottoms, after which Bitcoin has staged recoveries. The company cautions, however, that while this is a notable historical signal, it should not be interpreted as a definitive confirmation of a market reversal.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that steep drops in the realized profit and loss ratio have previously appeared near long-term bottoming periods for Bitcoin.
The convergence of multiple technical indicators with historically important on-chain signals is bolstering expectations of a market rebound. Nonetheless, analysts warn that no single indicator offers absolute certainty regarding market direction.
If Bitcoin breaks above the nearby resistance with strong buying activity, the $65,400 level is likely to become a focal point in the market. Conversely, if current support fails to hold, the price may remain range-bound and any recovery could face further delays.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
XRP has made its way into Australia’s financial parliamentary record. In the Australian Parliament’s Register of Members’ Interests, Labor MP Sally Sitou indicated her only cryptocurrency holding is XRP with local exchange CoinSpot.
Australian MP Lists XRP The filing identifies the digital currency as “Cryptocurrency (Ripple).” No Bitcoin and no Ether. Only XRP, included in the financial records of one of the world’s 15 largest economies.
The filing also shows that Sitou has physical gold through ABC Bullion and holds a wide-ranging portfolio of Australian and U.S. equities like the Commonwealth Bank, BHP, Meta Platforms and Costco. XRP is currently the sole listed digital asset.
Australian MP XRP Filing This disclosure sits inside a broader shift in how Australia treats crypto. The country’s Digital Assets Framework Bill Passed Parliament in April 2026, requiring exchanges and tokenized custody providers to obtain an Australian Financial Services License. Ripple is already pursuing that license, an early sign of its intent to entrench itself in the country’s regulated market.
Australia’s approach to regulation has changed significantly. In under a year, the nation moved from years of legislative silence to a well-organized licensing system for crypto firms.
The shift provides Ripple, the company behind XRP, an obligation as well as an opportunity. The moved has drawn wide attention on X, citing a continuation in adoption.
🚨🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA MAKES XRP OFFICIAL 🇦🇺🚨
Australia has officially disclosed XRP holdings in a Member of Parliament’s Register of Interests.
XRP is now publicly listed as part of a lawmaker’s financial assets in one of the world’s largest economies.
Adoption continues. 👀 pic.twitter.com/gJmALhkHYE
— John Squire 🇺🇸 (@TheCryptoSquire) July 4, 2026
White House Official’s XRP Filing & XRP’s Track Record Sitou’s revelation was not the only one capturing attention. Ian Kelley, who serves as the War Room Director at the White House and is also a Special Assistant to the President, reported XRP in a public financial filing after his appointment in January 2025.
His filing places the holding in a Coinbase wallet, valued between $1,001 and $15,000. Unlike Sitou, Kelley holds a broader crypto portfolio, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Chainlink, and Cardano all appear alongside XRP.
Each asset in Kelley’s portfolio falls within the same $1,001 to $15,000 disclosure range. Neither filing reveals the exact number of tokens held. But both put XRP on the record in two separate governments on two separate continents.
Political financial disclosures carry weight. They are sworn documents. When a lawmaker or White House official lists an asset, it signals more than personal preference, it normalizes that asset within the official financial order.
For XRP, appearing in two such filings in a single week adds to a growing pattern of political legitimacy. The company’s pursuit of an Australian Financial Services License shows it is tracking the regulatory door as it opens.
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Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
XRP jumped more than 8% as the crypto market showed some real catch-up energy heading into the July 4th weekend.
According to Santiment, most cryptocurrencies are no longer just watching equities hold up while they lag behind. After weeks of fear, ETF outflows, whale hesitation, and weak sentiment, buyers are finally stepping back in near key support. Most cryptocurrencies, including XRP, are trading higher on July 4.
XRP rose from the $1.02 low on July 1 after being stuck in a range between $1.00 and $1.07 for several days, marking the fourth straight day of gains since that date.
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Profitability indicators forecasted the current XRP rise, with all-time lows recorded for XRP average returns, hinting at a relief rally.
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XRP's 30-day and 365-day MVRV fell to about -45% and -47%, respectively, meaning that both short- and long-term investors are well underwater.
Santiment mentioned that, when taken together, XRP has never seen lower average returns in these timeframes in its more than 12-year trading history, indicating extreme fear. In the last seven days, XRP is up more than 8% as traders interpreted stretched losses as a contrarian signal.
XRP forms golden cross against BitcoinThe recent price increase has allowed XRP to gain strength against Bitcoin, with a golden cross setup appearing on the 2-hour BTC chart.
XRP/BTC 2-Hour Chart, Image By TradingViewThe 2-hour 50 MA has risen above the 200 MA, resulting in a short-term golden cross signal even as bullish momentum increases. XRP saw a sharp spike against Bitcoin in the July 4 session, reversing a downtrend from mid-June. The price remains in the $1 range, trading at $1.14 after hitting a 19-month low of $1.01 back on June 25.
Price disappointment hasn't reduced interest in XRP, on-chain data suggests. This week, the XRP Ledger saw 4,941 new wallets created in one day, the strongest network growth spike in over three months, indicating new users are stepping in despite sluggish price action.
The $1.00–$1.05 range is taken to be a likely dip-buy area, with sentiment reaching a 3-month high in FOMO.
Bitcoin rebounded near $62,000 after recovering from last week's lows, supported by optimism over Federal Reserve policy. Ethereum and major altcoins also gained, though investors remain cautious amid inflation, geopolitical tensions, energy prices and mixed ETF investment flows.
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AgenciesBitcoin climbed toward $62,000 while Ethereum and major altcoins advanced as easing Fed expectations improved sentiment despite persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Bitcoin is trading close to the $62,000 mark, recovering from around $58,000 a week ago. Despite the rebound, investors remain cautious as inflation, Middle East geopolitical tensions, energy prices and ETF flows continue to shape market sentiment.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin was up 1.37% and Ethereum was up 2.30% to trade at $1,754 mark. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin and Cardano gained upto 6.83%.
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The global crypto market capitalisation was up 1.38% to $2.17 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.
Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX said the prospect of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy helped improve sentiment across risk assets, allowing Bitcoin to recover above the $60,000 mark, while Ethereum also benefited from renewed institutional interest as spot ETFs recorded fresh inflows.
Shetty further said that from a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues to hold the $60,000-$61,000 support zone, with $63,000-$64,000 emerging as the next key resistance. For Ethereum, traders are watching $1,650-$1,680 as immediate support, while $1,750-$1,800 remains the next major resistance area.
In the past week, Bitcoin and Ethereum were up 3.62% and 11.05%. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin and Cardano rallied upto 19.16%.
Harish Vatnani, Head of Trade, ZebPay said Bitcoin rebounded after finding support at its recent double-bottom formation near $58,000 last week. Despite the recovery, the daily RSI remains below the 50 level, indicating that the broader momentum is still negative.
“Ethereum found support at its double-bottom formation near the $1,505 level and has rebounded sharply. The daily RSI has crossed above the 50 mark, reflecting improving bullish momentum”
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Vatnani further said that Ethereum and Solana investment products continued to attract inflows, while Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of more than $290 million, reflecting a shift in institutional investor sentiment.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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The crypto market had an eventful week between June 29 and July 3, with Bitcoin reclaiming $62,000 while Ethereum moved to $1,700. The meme coin market cap also moved from $22 billion on June 29 to $26 billion on July 4.
Amid these gains, four events stood out that caused volatile price movements not only for crypto prices but also for crypto stocks like Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) and Circle (NYSE: CRCL).
Strategy Unveils a $1.25B BTC Monetization Plan as MSTR Price Soars Strategy released a statement on June 29 saying that the company might sell $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to fund its USD reserve.
The Bitcoin treasury firm also says that part of the money that comes from selling Bitcoin would go towards buying back STRC and MSTR stocks.
This plan by Strategy to monetize $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin saw the price of MSTR stock price move from $85 on June 29 to close trading at $100 on July 2.
MSTR Stock Price The STRC stock price that had caused concerns across the crypto market for crashing to $71 on June 26 also gained by 22% to close trading at $87 on July 2.
Strategy did not buy any Bitcoin in the week between June 29 and July 3. However, data from SaylorTracker shows that the company still holds 847,363 BTC.
Trump Reveals $1.4B in Crypto Market Earnings as Concerns Emerge President Donald Trump disclosed on July 1 that he made $1.4 billion in profits from the crypto market in 2025.
Trump also generated $635 million from the royalties paid out to him for launching the TRUMP meme coin in January 2025.
This financial disclosure raises concerns that the SEC might crack down on meme coin issuers, causing spot DOGE ETFs to post $871,000 in outflows on June 2.
Trump’s disclosure has also made the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 drop to 40% on Kalshi as Senator Elizabeth Warren says that President Trump and his family need to stop benefiting from crypto.
However, Trump maintains that he did not do anything illegal because he has other people who make investments on his behalf.
MiCA Crypto Market Laws Go Live, Locking Out Many Crypto Firms Crypto companies operating in the EU were required to comply with the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) guidelines on July 1, and the Financial Times reported that only 12% of these companies managed to comply before the deadline.
Binance had already urged its users in the EU to take funds out of the exchange after failing to get a MiCA license in Greece.
Coinbase and OKX, which have already received the MiCA license, scrambled to take over the users who were left in limbo after the exit of Binance and offered transfer bonuses of between 5% and 8%.
The ripple effects from the MiCA laws going into effect might continue long past the July 1 deadline, as European fintech giant Revolut says it will delist the USDT stablecoin from its platform on August 1 after Tether’s failure to comply with MiCA.
OUSD Stablecoin Launch Raises Concerns Open Standard announced the launch of the OUSD stablecoin on June 30, saying firms like BlackRock, Ripple, and Coinbase are backing the stablecoin.
The launch sparked competition fears around Circle’s USDC stablecoin, and the price of CRCL stock dropped from $73 to $62 on June 30 when OUSD launched.
CRCL Stock Price However, questions have emerged about OUSD having 140 partners after Samsung and Dunamu said that they are partners despite initial claims.
Bitcoin price climbed on Saturday as weak U.S. jobs data lifted demand for major crypto assets. The global crypto market rose 1.09% to $2.17 trillion within 24 hours. Bitcoin traded at $62,626, gaining 1.28% on the day.
The BTC price also advanced nearly 5% over the past week. Traders reacted after June job growth slowed more than expected. Analysts say softer rate expectations could help Bitcoin target $70,000 in July.
The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs, below forecasts of 110,000. That figure also dropped from 129,000 jobs reported in May. Meanwhile, unemployment eased to 4.2%, beating the 4.3% estimate. Ethereum price surged moved above $1,700 as market sentiment improved. XRP and Dogecoin also gained.
Why Bitcoin Price May Rally To $70K In July, According To Analysts Crypto analyst said Bitcoin could rally toward $70,000 in July if a past pattern returns. The analyst noted that Bitcoin posted red May and June candles three previous times. Each period was followed by an average July gain of 19%.
Last 3 times $BTC had a red May and June, it averaged 19% return in July.
If this repeats, Bitcoin could tap the $70,000-$71,000 zone this month. https://t.co/noejm6evgL pic.twitter.com/s93DOWWWaR
— Ted (@TedPillows) July 3, 2026
A repeat could push BTC into the $70,000-$71,000 range this month. The view has gained attention as Bitcoin trades above $62,000. Still, traders are watching volume and resistance before confirming a leg higher. Historical signals remain uncertain now.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs End 10-Day Outflow Streak With $222M Inflow Bitcoin spot ETFs returned to positive flows on July 2, ending a 10-day stretch of withdrawals. Wu Blockchain shared data showing that the funds registered net inflows of $222 million.
The recovery followed with the Bitcoin price floating above $62000, which indicated new demand following the recent market pressure. Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs also stayed positive, recording $29.08 million in net inflows.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs See $222M Net Inflow After 10-Day Outflow Streak
On July 2 (ET), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $222 million, turning positive after 10 consecutive days of net outflows. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $29.08 million. pic.twitter.com/LP3UjuQPJV
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 3, 2026
The numbers indicate that institutional buyers were back, albeit tentatively, even though there was poor sentiment in some sectors of the crypto market. Nevertheless, traders can continue to observe inflows in future sessions. Sustained ETF demand could support Bitcoin’s attempt to hold near key support this week.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Break $64K and Rally Toward $70K? At the time of the reporting, the price of the BTC was traded close to $62,795 in the four-hour chart. Bitcoin has been in an ascending channel and has been recovering steadily since its lows in late June. The mid-range of around $63 000 is currently being tested by the buyers as momentum is gaining.
The next resistance of full Bitcoin forecast report is at the value of $64,000, and the recent candles can have selling pressure.
Any clean breakout beyond this point would pave the way to $66,000. The broader target is still at $70,000 in case buying strength persists.
Source: Tradingview The RSI is however around 67 and this indicates that the momentum is strong but at the risk of becoming overheated. The CMF of 0.03 also indicates mild capital inflow but there is not much conviction. On the downside, $62,000 remains the first support, followed by $60,000.
Germany’s savings and cooperative banks are rolling out crypto trading to retail clients, wiring Bitcoin (BTC) into the apps of institutions that hold roughly 80 million customer relationships in a country of 84 million people.
The Sparkassen serve about 50 million customers, per DSGV data, and the cooperative banks another 30 million, per BVR figures. Both groups dismissed the asset class as too risky just four years ago.
German Banks That Rejected Crypto Trading Now Court MillionsAccording to Bloomberg, both groups are building in-house services rather than steering clients to outside exchanges. DZ Bank’s meinKrypto platform already runs inside the VR Banking App, offering BTC, Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), and Cardano (ADA).
BaFin licensed meinKrypto under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework in late December 2025, per DZ Bank’s announcement. Boerse Stuttgart Digital handles custody, keeping the whole chain under German supervision.
DekaBank is building the equivalent product for the roughly 340 savings banks, with a phased launch later this year. Each of the almost 650 cooperative banks and every Sparkasse opts in individually. DZ Bank product specialist Markus Bärenfänger expects hundreds to join.
Germany’s Local Banks Bring Crypto Trading to Millions in Major Mainstream Adoption PushThe reversal is stark. The savings banks considered crypto trading in 2021, then shelved it over incalculable risks. MiCA has since opened the door for Germany’s largest financial institutions.
Trust Advantage Collides With Total Loss WarningsThe trust math explains the bet. Germans trust their primary bank twice as much as specialized crypto platforms, 38% to 19%, per a Boerse Stuttgart Digital survey. However, only about a quarter have invested in crypto, in line with broader European adoption figures.
That trust is precisely what worries critics. Co-Pierre Georg, professor at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, argues that traditional bank customers may not grasp the risks.
“It is concerning that the floodgates to the cryptocurrency market are now being opened by savings and cooperative banks,” Co-Pierre Georg, professor at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, via Bloomberg.
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Even the savings banks’ own lobby group, DSGV, calls crypto a highly speculative investment carrying the risk of total loss. It frames the service as suitable for self-directed investors only.
Timing sharpens the debate. Bitcoin trades near $62,483 after falling roughly 50% from its October 2025 record of $126,080.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoThe German lenders also join a wider European shift. UBS opened crypto trading for private clients in January.
For local banks, the payoff may be relevance rather than revenue. Westerwald Bank chief Ralf Kölbach warns that lenders skipping crypto lose younger, tech-savvy customers.
The bigger test is whether bank-branded credibility can survive the market’s next deep drawdown.
Solana price, which has seen a slight rally to $82 this week, is making many investors wonder if now is the right time to buy. To provide this view on Solana’s recent move, popular crypto analyst VirtualBacon says investors should first look at Bitcoin, not Solana.
While he says Solana at $80 is not a buy because it’s too expensive. Here’s why!
Every Altcoin Starts With BitcoinAccording to VirtualBacon, the biggest mistake investors make is looking at Solana without first analyzing the Bitcoin market. He believes that before deciding whether Solana is a good buy during this bear market, investors first need to understand where Bitcoin stands in its market cycle.
He says that “Altcoins do not lead the bull run, Bitcoin leads.”
For him, Bitcoin’s most important support levels are its 200-week moving average around $62,000 and its Realized Price near $53,000.
If Bitcoin falls toward these levels, he believes the market will offer much better long term opportunities.
“Before Bitcoin becomes cheap enough in your own analysis, you should not be buying Solana, and you should not be buying any other altcoin.”
He even says, “If Bitcoin gets to $53K, I am all in that because that’s extremely cheap in my analysis.”
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Solana Has To Beat Bitcoin To Be A Worthy BuyVirtualBacon says that buying Solana only makes sense if it can outperform Bitcoin. Otherwise, investors are simply taking extra risk without earning better returns.
To find out Solana’s risk-reward, investors must look at the SOL/BTC chart. During the last market drop in September 2025, Bitcoin fell 54% from its peak, while Solana dropped 76%.
This means Solana typically falls about 1.4 times more than Bitcoin. Based on this, if Bitcoin drops to around $53,500, Solana could fall to around $65 from its current price level.
He says that level would make Solana reasonably priced, which has the potential to outperform Bitcoin any day.
Why $80 Is Not a Buy? “Too Expensive”Despite Solana’s recent recovery to above $82, VirtualBacon says $80 is not a good price to buy Solana because it has less room for profit.
“Solana at $80 is not a buy, Too Expensive.”
As per his analysis, Solana will reach around $290 in the next bull market. But buying at $82 offers only about a 3.5x return, while buying near $60 could give around a 4.7x return.
He says the buying price matters much more for altcoins like Solana than for Bitcoin.
That’s why he believes investors should wait for Solana to fall below $60, where it would offer a better chance to beat Bitcoin.
VirtualBacon’s Buying PlanRather than chasing the current recovery, VirtualBacon says patience is the better strategy.
“Wait for Bitcoin to go to 53K, make a new low, and then wait for Solana to drop the 1.4x multiple on top of that, and then buy.”
In the end, even warned investors not to expect the massive gains just like we saw in previous cycles, adding, “I don’t think there is a 10x to be had on Solana anymore.”
Story Ends Here
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SUI has turned heads on the market once again as it approaches a long-term technical support level. Analysts say maintaining this support, especially amid ongoing selling pressure, could set the stage for a robust recovery in the coming months.
Price and Trading DataAccording to TradingView, SUI is priced at $0.7528. The token rose 1.29% in the past 24 hours, with trading volumes reaching $379.49 million and a market capitalization of $3.05 billion. This represents roughly 0.14% of the total cryptocurrency market.
SUI operates as a Layer 1 token on its native blockchain. As such, any significant price rebound in SUI is watched not only as an isolated move but also as a signal that could point to broader trends across the altcoin market.
Key Technical Outlook from AnalystsCrypto analyst Crypto Patel shared his assessment on X, noting that SUI is currently testing a critical trendline support on its high time frame chart. According to Patel, should this support hold, SUI could enter a strong reversal period in the months ahead, with potential gains exceeding 200%.
Crypto Patel emphasizes that SUI is sitting on a major high time frame support line and believes holding this level could trigger a major directional shift for the price in the near future.
The current market structure, according to Patel’s analysis, is mixed yet not entirely weak. SUI has formed a higher low compared to its October 2025 bottom but is now trading at a lower low relative to its February 6, 2026 level. This suggests the market may be searching for equilibrium ahead of a new bullish wave.
Mini glossary: HTF stands for “high time frame” in English, referring to longer-term periods such as daily, weekly, or monthly charts. In technical analysis, these intervals are often seen as more reliable indicators of the main trend compared to short-term fluctuations.
Key Levels and TargetsThe shared trading plan identifies the entry zone for SUI between $0.65 and $0.74. By contrast, a weekly close below $0.64 is flagged as the principal risk that would invalidate any bullish outlook.
Patel’s upside targets are listed at $0.86, $0.98, $1.18, $1.34, $1.50, $1.73, $2.02, $2.34, $2.55, and $2.86, respectively.
IndicatorLevelEntry zone$0.65-$0.74Invalidation levelWeekly close below $0.64First target$0.86Final target$2.86The analysis explores the use of 8x leverage, pointing out that while returns could be amplified in such a scenario, these trades remain extremely sensitive to market conditions and carry a high degree of risk.
Connection with Broader Market TrendsThe current technical setup for SUI mirrors patterns seen recently in Bitcoin, Solana, and several major altcoins, according to market observers. Technical analysts are closely monitoring these assets as they may offer early indicators for a broader market rebound.
Should buying interest in the crypto sector revive further, SUI is seen as a candidate for a parallel recovery alongside other Layer 1 networks. Still, the provided levels and targets are presented as probabilities, not certainties, and depend heavily on evolving market conditions.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Wallets belonging to the Royal Government of Bhutan sent 700 BTC valued at about $43.75 million to the crypto exchange Binance. This move comes as Bitcoin pushed past $62,000 on Saturday.
Bhutan Govt. Offloads $43 Million In Bitcoin The largest single transaction, according to Arkham Intelligence data, was 634 BTC worth approximately $39.6 million was transferred from a wallet associated with the government to a Binance deposit address. Another 66 BTC valued approximately $4.12 million were also sent to the same exchange deposit wallet in a separate transaction.
Moreover, the combined amount of the two transfers amounted to 700 BTC. It is worth approximately $43.75 million based on the current BTC price.
Even with the whiff of a large sell-off, a move to a central exchange does not necessarily indicate a real sale. Exchange wallets can be used by governments and institutional investors for various purposes. These include over-the-counter (OTC) trades, collateral management, intra-fund consolidations, or liquidity operations. It remains unclear what prompted the transfers.
The Royal Government of Bhutan deposited 700 $BTC ($43.75M) into #Binance.https://t.co/TEKoW47knShttps://t.co/f2cL5LdzN2 pic.twitter.com/1WAWC0VN1a
— Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens) July 4, 2026
According to the blockchain records, around 1,750 BTC is still in Bhutan’s hands. This stash is valued at around $109.27 million after the most recent transfers.
The recent activity comes after a couple of past Bitcoin transactions by Bhutan-related wallets back in the previous month. Some of the earlier transfers that have been traced to Arkham involved 364.984 BTC worth some $22.26 million and 188.558 BTC valued near $11.47 million.
It also included movement of 150.458 BTC valued at approximately $9.14 million. Overall, it sent 1,095 BTC, totaling over $67 million at the time.
Bitcoin Climbs Above $62,000 Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s resurgence above $62,000 coincided with the most recent U.S. labor market data. The U.S. economy created 57,000 jobs in June, far short of the 115,000 expected and a downward revision of 43,000 jobs in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The U.S. jobless rate was 4.2%, just below the 4.3% forecasts. It suggests that the markets’ fears that employment data may have been weaker than anticipated were unwarranted. This narrative is supporting hopes that the Federal Reserve will keep cutting rates to combat inflation.
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TLDR; US Stock market rally became Trump’s main economic message as he linked gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow to tax cuts and investment. Bitcoin’s move near $62,000 showed how weaker jobs data and lower rate fears can quickly support risk assets after heavy volatility. The Trump economy narrative now connects traditional markets with crypto market sentiment, especially as traders watch Fed policy signals. Policy risk still matters as the CLARITY Act, tariff talks and AI-linked earnings could shape market direction through the second half of 2026. Donald Trump framed the US Stock market rally as evidence that his economic agenda is gaining traction. He said stronger markets, tax cuts, exports and private investment showed the economy had entered a new growth phase. The comments landed as risk assets also improved.
Bitcoin traded near $62,444, while Ethereum was around $1,624.95 and XRP traded close to $1.059 at last check. The move followed a volatile second quarter, with traders now linking equities, crypto market sentiment and Federal Reserve expectations more closely. It also put Trump’s economic message back at the center of market debate.
US Stock Market Rally Gives Trump A Golden Age Message Trump said the US Stock market rally had delivered the strongest quarter for major indexes since his previous presidency. He pointed to gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average. He also said stronger 401(k) balances were helping households feel the impact of the market rebound.
"We are the strongest and most powerful country on Earth. And by the grace of God, the United States of America is the most successful, most accomplished, most exceptional nation ever to exist in human history." – President DONALD J. TRUMP 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/bGVSS80bJu
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) July 4, 2026
Market data gives that claim a strong backdrop. According to market data, the S&P 500 gained 14.9% in the second quarter, while the Nasdaq climbed 21.4%. The Dow rose about 13%, marking its biggest quarterly jump since 2022. MarketWatch data shows Dow ended the first half with its strongest performance since 2021.
Trump tied the Trump economy message to tax cuts for working families, rising exports and a smaller trade gap. He also said trillions of dollars in announced investment were supporting factories, jobs and domestic production. His “Golden Age” framing came as the U.S. prepared to mark its 250th Independence Day.
The US Stock market rally also reflected optimism around earnings and economic growth. Technology and semiconductor shares helped drive the second-quarter advance. Still, the rally has carried valuation concerns, especially as artificial intelligence spending shapes investor expectations across Wall Street.
US Stock Market Rally Links Rates, Crypto and Policy Risk The US Stock market rally received another lift after softer jobs data reduced near-term rate fears. According to reports, the U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, below the 110,000 estimate. Rate-hike expectations for September then fell to 55% from 64.1%, according to CME FedWatch.
That shift also supported the crypto market. Lower borrowing costs usually help risk assets, as traders seek higher-return areas when liquidity expectations improve. Bitcoin’s rebound near $62,000 showed how quickly macro signals can spill into digital assets after a sharp selloff.
A reported 76% correlation between Bitcoin and gold has also kept the hedge debate active. Some investors view both assets as protection against policy uncertainty and inflation risk. Yet Bitcoin still trades with higher volatility than gold, making the comparison useful but limited.
Policy is another driver. Congress is still debating digital asset rules through the CLARITY Act, while institutional crypto adoption expands. The Trump administration has also signaled a friendlier regulatory stance toward the sector. For traders, the next tests include Fed decisions, tariff talks and earnings from AI-linked companies.
Why Are Bitcoin Exchange Deposits Raising Concern? Bitcoin deposits to exchanges have surged to levels seen only a handful of times this year, a pattern that has historically preceded sharper volatility and larger directional moves across the crypto market, according to CryptoQuant.
Daily bitcoin deposits climbed to nearly 49,000 BTC on June 30, close to the 50,000 BTC threshold that has appeared only 4 other times this year. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, described the move as a “rare extreme” and said similar spikes have previously been followed by stronger price swings.
“At these inflow levels, the market is absorbing a large volume of bitcoin being repositioned to exchanges, a pattern that has historically preceded significant directional moves,” Moreno wrote.
The concern is not only the size of the inflow. Exchange deposits often rise when holders are preparing to sell, adjust collateral, rebalance positions, or move assets into more liquid trading venues. When the increase is large and sudden, it can change market depth and make price action more sensitive to order flow.
Are Whales Driving the Latest Move? The latest increase appears to be driven mainly by large holders rather than retail investors. Moreno said the average bitcoin deposit to exchanges doubled from about 1 BTC to 2 BTC, pointing to larger transfers by whales and institutional investors.
That detail matters because average deposit size can carry a different market message than total deposits alone. High deposit volumes may reflect broad activity across many participants. A jump in average deposit size suggests larger holders are moving more bitcoin at once, which can create heavier selling pressure if those coins are placed into active exchange liquidity.
Moreno said spikes in average deposit size have historically been a more bearish signal than deposit volume alone because they reflect “deliberate repositioning” by larger market participants. He added that such moves have been a reliable leading indicator of downward price pressure.
The spike also comes as bitcoin tests the $60,000 support area. Moreno said a break below that level could put bitcoin on course toward its realized price near $53,000. Bitcoin was recently trading around $62,180, while U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on Thursday, ending a 10-day outflow streak, according to SoSoValue data.
Investor Takeaway The exchange inflow data does not confirm that a sell-off has started, but it shows that larger holders are moving bitcoin into venues where selling, hedging, or repositioning becomes easier. That raises the risk of wider price swings while bitcoin remains close to key support.
Why Are Ether And Altcoin Deposits Also Important? The pattern is not limited to bitcoin. Ether deposits to exchanges climbed above 1.25 million ETH in late June, a level Moreno said is consistent with elevated selling pressure.
Simultaneous increases in bitcoin and ether deposits are more important than isolated weakness in one asset. When both major crypto assets see exchange inflows rise at the same time, the signal points to a broader risk-off move rather than a single-asset adjustment.
Altcoin deposits have also increased sharply. The number of altcoin deposit transactions reached nearly 45,000 earlier this week, the highest level in almost 2 months. Moreno described the move as “a historical inflection-point signal for prices.”
For altcoins, exchange deposit spikes can be especially sensitive because liquidity is often thinner than in bitcoin or ether markets. A rise in deposits can quickly translate into sharper price moves if holders decide to sell into weaker order books.
What Does This Mean For Market Direction? The current setup resembles an earlier pattern that preceded a broad crypto decline. Moreno said a similar spike in altcoin deposits occurred before bitcoin fell from about $82,000 in early May to below $58,000 in late June.
“With the threshold being breached again while bitcoin tests $60,000 support, the current configuration closely mirrors the pattern that preceded the prior leg down, warranting heightened caution from market participants,” Moreno said.
The immediate market risk is a volatility break rather than a guaranteed move lower. Exchange inflows show that assets are being moved into tradable venues, but they do not reveal whether holders will sell immediately, hedge exposure, provide liquidity, or prepare for other transactions.
Still, the mix of higher bitcoin deposits, larger average transfer sizes, rising ether inflows, and stronger altcoin exchange activity creates a more fragile market structure. If bitcoin fails to hold the $60,000 area, the same inflow pressure could deepen momentum toward lower realized-price levels.
Investor Takeaway CryptoQuant’s data points to a market entering a higher-risk phase. The clearest issue is not just that more coins are moving to exchanges, but that larger holders appear to be behind the move while bitcoin trades near a major support level.
Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio has fallen to a 43-month low of -0.35, a figure that signals extreme market-wide loss conditions but has historically coincided with market bottoms, blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant said.
The Bitcoin realized P&L ratio — which measures the net percentage of Bitcoin (BTC) in profit or loss relative to total supply — hasn’t fallen this low since December 2022, shortly after FTX shockingly collapsed and sent Bitcoin below $16,000.
“Historically the indicator has marked BTC bottoms with extreme precision,” CryptoQuant said on Thursday. In 2015 and 2019, the Bitcoin realized P&L ratio also fell below -0.35 before price rallies followed.
Change in Bitcoin’s P/L ratio since 2012. The data was taken when Bitcoin was trading at $59,000. Source: CryptoQuant
The data could lift market sentiment, which has repeatedly fallen to near-record lows during the course of Bitcoin’s latest 50% drawdown from $126,080, set in October. Market sentiment has risen cautiously over the last 10 days, with Bitcoin up more than 7% since tanking to a near two-year low of $58,190 on June 25.
Many analysts blamed that drop on Strategy — the largest corporate Bitcoin holder — after its top perpetual preferred stock offering, Stretch (STRC), broke from its $100 par value to below $75, raising fears that its dividend model was unsustainable.
On Thursday, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said the STRC incident squeezed out excess leverage and likely moved the market one step closer to a bottom.
“As the market continues to sort things out, I’m convinced the bottom is closer than ever — and that we will enter a new bull market in the fall.”Don’t wait for the bottom, analyst saysSwan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston noted that Bitcoin is currently trading only 16% above the realized price — the network's aggregate on-chain cost basis — a level that has historically coincided with strong forward returns of 41% at six months and 81% at 12 months.
Livingston acknowledged that buying Bitcoin right now “feels awful,” but that’s precisely why it’s trading at a discount, he argued.
“Waiting for ‘the bottom’ is a wonderful plan with one flaw. The bottom never announces itself,” Livingston said, recommending investors buy now rather than overpay at the top.
Magazine: Bitcoin slides to $58K, XRP hits $1 but onchain data promising: Market Moves
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