Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

After more than 14 years of silence, a stash of 30 Bitcoin has suddenly moved across the blockchain, drawing fresh intrigue from crypto market watchers. According to Galaxy Research, these coins, originally received on August 7, 2011, were transferred in block number 956627, marking the end of an almost 15-year period of complete inactivity for the wallet. This rare movement has stirred up speculation about the origins and potential significance of the transaction.

Movement from an old wallet catches attentionAnalysts suspect the 30 BTC are linked to a wallet group popularly referred to as “Noah Doe” within crypto circles. At current market prices, the total value of these Bitcoin amounts to approximately $1.88 million. Given the initial acquisition cost was just $9, the transaction reflects a staggering profit of about $1.84 million, corresponding to an astronomical 719353% increase over the period.

Galaxy Research has confirmed that 30 BTC, untouched since 2011, were transferred within Bitcoin block 956627.

While news of the transaction broke, Bitcoin was trading at $62,719, which is about 50.29% below its all-time high of $126,198 recorded in October 2025. Despite this, the return on these particular coins remains historic by any investment standard.

Noah Doe link and legal caseAlex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Research, confirmed the moved coins were part of the long-dormant Noah Doe group. Thorn highlighted that ancient Bitcoin wallets linked to Noah Doe have been showing increased activity on-chain in recent months, a development intensely watched by both researchers and investors.

Alex Thorn points out that coins associated with Noah Doe have started moving more rapidly on the blockchain with each passing month recently.

Noah Doe has also made headlines as an anonymous plaintiff in a New York court case, seeking official recognition of ownership for a stunning 3.8 million Bitcoin distributed among 39,069 addresses. Strikingly, some of these addresses are said to be linked to wallets associated with Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin’s enigmatic creator. The case also involves two anonymous companies headquartered in Wyoming.

In short, these plaintiffs are requesting that the court formally declare the Bitcoin held in 39,069 long-inactive addresses as their property. The case centers on a legal motion for the determination of ownership rights under the guidance of the New York legal system.

Glossary: An “action for determination of ownership” is a legal process in which a court clarifies who rightfully owns an asset or property. New York’s regulations on lost property can sometimes allow claims to be made on assets that remain unclaimed or without a clear owner for a lengthy period.

New twist adds fuel to the legal disputeA dramatic development recently emerged in the court file. An individual referenced as “John Doe 33” filed the first procedural objection, arguing that the case is invalid and requesting its dismissal.

This episode demonstrates that old, dormant Bitcoin wallets are not just sparking interest due to on-chain transfers; they are also at the center of heated ownership battles, further intensifying the debate around the origins and rightful claimants of early Bitcoin holdings.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

As the weekly close approaches, Bitcoin is trading near its highest levels in two weeks, holding steady close to the crucial $62,700 mark. This price is significant, as it represents the 200-week simple moving average, a key technical threshold for the long-term market outlook.

Intense price battle at a major technical thresholdOver the weekend, thinner order books and the three-day holiday in the United States led to weaker trading conditions. Despite this, buyers managed to push the price up to $63,450. However, some market observers believe that sell orders clustered at higher levels are capping further gains and putting pressure on the price.

Market analyst Exitpump noted that Bitcoin faced strong passive selling from above, which has limited its upward momentum.

Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that short positions have been liquidated during the recent rally. According to data from CoinGlass, total crypto market liquidations reached $167 million in the past 24 hours. CoinGlass is a data platform known for tracking liquidations and open interest in derivatives markets.

Glossary: A short squeeze occurs when traders betting against the price are forced to close their positions as prices rise. This process creates extra buying pressure that can accelerate upward moves temporarily.

Daan Crypto Trades emphasized that the market produced a classic short squeeze in response to the heavy buildup of short positions, and forced liquidations helped fuel the rally.

Trader Killa pointed out an interesting trend: Bitcoin has shown notable weakness on each of the last seven Mondays. This has led to expectations of renewed volatility at the start of the new trading week.

Spot ETF inflows and macro data take center stageIn a market note released Friday, QCP Capital suggested that crypto assets and other risk assets may be entering a more supportive environment. The firm cited the return of net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs as a key factor behind this improved outlook.

US nonfarm payrolls data released last week came in below expectations, easing concerns about aggressive rate hikes. QCP Capital interprets the 2% increase in gold as a clear sign of a more dovish Fed expectation, remarking that this movement is tied more to safe haven demand and real yield protection than outright growth optimism.

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, there is now an 80% probability that the US Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its July 29 policy meeting. QCP Capital added that further widespread optimism will require supportive consumer price index data before that date.

IndicatorLevelSignificance200-week SMA$62,700Key long-term technical thresholdWeekend high$63,450Latest buyer-driven level24-hour liquidations$167 millionIndicates short position pressureProbability of rate hold July 29About 80%Reflects macro expectationsCurrently, the market is closely watching both the ongoing price action around the $62,700 level and the potential impact of upcoming macroeconomic data on risk appetite. Analysts suggest that trading on Monday could be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin will maintain support above this key region in the short term.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Active addresses on the Bitcoin blockchain have climbed roughly 9% to surpass 660,000, a notable uptick after what has been a prolonged period of declining on-chain engagement.

The bigger picture on active addresses To understand why 660,000 active addresses matters, you need to know where Bitcoin has been. The network hit a 7-day moving average of around 938,609 active addresses back in August 2025. That was the recent peak.

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From there, activity steadily eroded. By December 2025, the same metric had cratered to approximately 660,000, marking the lowest reading in 12 months. That’s a decline of more than 30% from the summer high.

The decline through late 2025 wasn’t happening in isolation. Daily miner revenue dropped from roughly $50 million to $40 million over the same stretch. Much of the elevated activity seen in 2024 and early 2025 was fueled by Ordinals and Runes, two protocols that brought NFT-like inscriptions and token creation to Bitcoin’s base layer. When the novelty faded, so did the addresses showing up to use the network.

Transaction counts vs. actual economic activity By June 2026, daily Bitcoin transactions surged past 800,000, the highest level recorded since 2024. However, a significant chunk of that spike came from low-value protocol transactions rather than meaningful economic transfers.

What miner economics tell us The slide from $50 million to $40 million in daily miner revenue during late 2025 was a 20% haircut. If miners need to sell more Bitcoin to cover electricity bills, that adds selling pressure to the market. Conversely, if revenue stabilizes or climbs alongside rising active addresses, it validates the network recovery thesis.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Why Are Satoshi’s Coins Back In The Debate? Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has reopened one of Bitcoin’s most difficult governance questions: what should the network do if quantum computers become powerful enough to break the cryptography protecting old wallets?

Zhao, widely known as CZ, suggested that the estimated 1.1 million bitcoin believed to belong to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto could be frozen if they are not moved within a set window. At bitcoin’s current price of roughly $62,000, the holdings are worth about $68 billion.

His argument is based on a security concern. If quantum computing eventually makes older Bitcoin signatures vulnerable, dormant wallets could be exposed to theft. Satoshi’s coins would be the most visible target because of their size, age, and market importance.

“If we don’t do anything with it, then we’re basically giving it to somebody who’s going to hack it,” Zhao said.

The idea would give Satoshi 6 to 12 months to move the coins. If there is no movement, the community could then decide whether to freeze the addresses. That proposal immediately divided investors, developers, and entrepreneurs because it touches the core promise of Bitcoin: property without permission from a central authority.

Why Is Freezing Coins So Controversial? The case for intervention is straightforward. If a quantum attacker gained access to Satoshi’s bitcoin and sold them into the market, the shock could be severe. A sudden release of more than 1 million bitcoin would threaten liquidity, damage confidence, and raise fears that other dormant wallets could also be compromised.

The opposing argument is just as important. Freezing coins would mean changing Bitcoin’s rules to restrict specific property, even if the owner has not acted. That would be a major departure for a network built around neutrality, censorship resistance, and self-custody.

Michael Terpin, founder and CEO of Transform Ventures and author of Bitcoin Supercycle, said the proposal would cross a line Bitcoin has not crossed before.

“While I appreciate the proactivity in CZ’s proposal, it begins a slippery slope of creating permission in a permissionless system relative to personal property,” Terpin said.

Terpin argued that even if Satoshi is dead, the market could survive a one-time shock better than it could survive a precedent that allows the network to seize or freeze coins.

“If indeed [Satoshi] is dead, as many Bitcoiners believe, then only a quantum hack unlocks the coins. While it would hurt the price substantially if the coins were dumped, it would be a one-time episode and post-quantum bitcoin would recover,” he said.

Investor Takeaway The quantum debate is not only about Satoshi’s wallet. It is about whether Bitcoin can upgrade its security without weakening its property-rights narrative. For investors, the risk is less immediate price action and more the governance precedent created by any forced intervention.

Can Bitcoin Reach Consensus On A Quantum Upgrade? Bitcoin’s governance process makes any emergency-style change difficult. Terpin pointed to the long debate over SegWit as evidence that fast consensus would be unlikely. “Considering it took years just to implement SegWit, I doubt a quick consensus could be formed here,” he said.

Jameson Lopp, co-founder and chief security officer at Casa, said CZ’s remarks should be understood less as a formal proposal and more as a warning about the wider quantum threat.

“I don’t really consider it a proposal so much as him musing upon the threat,” Lopp said.

For Lopp, the issue is not a simple choice between freezing Satoshi’s coins or doing nothing. It is about moving Bitcoin users, exchanges, custodians, wallets, and institutions toward quantum-resistant cryptography before the current system becomes vulnerable.

“I think this is not a binary debate of ‘to freeze or not to freeze,’” he said.

Lopp has authored Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 361, which outlines a phased migration to quantum-resistant cryptography. The aim is to create a structured timeline so the ecosystem does not wait until a practical attack is possible.

“The goal is to create incentives and deadlines so users, exchanges, custodians, wallets and institutions actually migrate in a timely fashion,” Lopp said.

Is There A Middle Ground For Satoshi’s Bitcoin? Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, rejected both extremes: allowing the coins to be stolen and freezing them outright. Instead, he pointed to a proposal from Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter that would place Satoshi’s bitcoin into a legal trust until ownership could be proven through historical electronic records.

“I actually like Nic Carter’s proposal,” Hougan said. “It avoids the philosophical challenges of both CZ’s suggestion and the ‘let whatever happens’ perspective.”

Hougan said any change involving Satoshi’s coins would be difficult for the market because investors already treat them as effectively unavailable.

“I don’t think there is any way that developments around Satoshi’s coins are positive for the ecosystem,” he said. “The market already accounts for them as frozen forever.”

That view explains why the debate is so sensitive. If the coins move, are frozen, or become the subject of a legal structure, the market would have to reprice an assumption that has existed for years: that Satoshi’s bitcoin will never return to circulation.

For now, the issue remains theoretical. Practical quantum attacks against Bitcoin are not yet a market reality, and researchers are still working through how post-quantum cryptography could be applied without disrupting the network. But the debate shows that Bitcoin’s next major security upgrade may involve more than code. It may test the boundaries of governance, property rights, and investor trust at the same time.

Peter Brandt Eyes Selling Bitcoin to Invest in Gold, and Here is Why

K Wave Media has become a useful reminder that the Bitcoin treasury trade is not one simple story. The company once presented Bitcoin as part of a larger balance-sheet strategy. Now, after selling its BTC and shifting attention toward artificial intelligence infrastructure, it has effectively shown the other side of the corporate accumulation narrative.

That matters because Bitcoin treasury companies have been one of the loudest themes of the cycle. The market loves the clean version: a public company raises capital, buys BTC, and lets shareholders gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. K Wave’s reversal is messier.

For more details, visit the official Sec platform.

TL;DR K Wave Media disclosed in SEC filings that it sold Bitcoin tied to its treasury strategy and used proceeds to address debt obligations. The company has also discussed reallocating capital toward AI infrastructure. For the wider market, the story is not about the size of K Wave’s BTC stack. It is about what happens when smaller treasury plays meet debt, equity-market pressure, and changing investor appetite.

Bitcoin treasury strategies work best when capital is cheap, share prices are strong, and investors reward accumulation. They become much harder when financing conditions tighten or the company’s core business needs cash.

That is the lesson here.

A Treasury Strategy Needs More Than A Slogan The corporate Bitcoin playbook is often associated with Strategy because Strategy built it at scale and stuck with it for years. Smaller companies have tried to borrow parts of that model, but not every balance sheet can carry the same risk.

Buying Bitcoin is easy to explain. Funding it sustainably is the hard part.

If a company relies on capital raises, convertible notes, preferred stock, or other financing tools to support a BTC strategy, the market has to keep believing in the premium. Once that premium disappears, the strategy can turn from accretive to stressful very quickly.

K Wave’s exit is therefore less about one company’s number of coins and more about the market’s willingness to keep funding copycat treasury models.

Why Bitcoin Traders Should Care For BTC itself, K Wave is not large enough to move the market on its own. But the symbolism is bigger than the position.

Treasury-company demand has been part of Bitcoin’s institutional story. If investors start separating strong treasury operators from weaker ones, the market may become more selective. That is healthy in the long run, but it can create short-term pressure as weaker names unwind or pivot.

The bullish interpretation is that Bitcoin’s treasury theme is maturing. Not every company that announces a BTC plan deserves a premium. The bearish interpretation is that some corporate holders could become sellers if balance-sheet pressure rises.

Both can be true.

K Wave’s move does not kill the treasury trade. It does show that the trade is no longer automatic. Investors are now asking harder questions about debt, liquidity, business quality, and whether the Bitcoin strategy actually fits the company using it.

This report is based on information from K Wave Media SEC filings.

This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.

XRP and Bitcoin Price outlook improved this week as traders returned to major crypto assets. Bitcoin price rose over $62,000 and briefly topped $63,000, the highest point in two weeks. XRP also gained nearly 10% over seven days, while trading around $1.13. 

The rally came after less aggressive jobs data, which alleviated inflation concerns and favored risk demand.

CLARITY Act Progress Faces Senate Timing Test Senator Cynthia Lummis repressed efforts to push the CLARITY Act. The bill aims to introduce more transparent regulations to digital asset markets in the United States.

The measure has passed the House and cleared the Senate Banking Committee. Nevertheless, it has yet to receive a Senate vote, which would bring it closer to legislation.

July has turned out to be significant as the Senate has a limited policy window before August recess. The bill might have a longer journey to 2027 should lawmakers take a long time in taking action.

Lummis has provided an opportunity to have a final review of revised bill text, as well. It was reported that the updated version was likely to come around July 4.

Source: Polymarket cap Polymarket shows a 51% chance the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026, down 14%, with $1.52 million volume overall today.

XRP and Bitcoin Price Outlook  The movement of XRP and Bitcoin Price is now based on macro data and policy momentum. The next market signal the traders will be monitoring is the U.S inflation figures.

Bitcoin long-term prediction needs to hold above $62,000 to keep short-term buyers active. A more robust breakout of the above $63,500 would open space to reach $65,000.

Source: TradingView However, fresh selling may return if Bitcoin loses the $60,000 support area. That would undermine the recovery and retard the greater market confidence.

XRP is among the most robust large-cap tokens following its weekly upswing. Another push to $1.20 may be backed by a hold higher than 1.10.

Nonetheless, XRP could experience pressure in the event of slow Senate progress or the loss of market volume. The CLARITY Act is one of the primary drivers of digital assets.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit $221M as XRP Demand Grows The price trends of XRP and Bitcoin remained stable as the U.S. spot ETFs demand was active again on July 2. 

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw daily net inflows of $221.72 million with cumulative inflows of $51.08 billion. The value traded was total of $2.13 billion, and net assets were approximately $74.37 billion.

The FBTC of Fidelity started the Bitcoin inflows with $165.90 million, and Ark 21Shares with $91.84 million. Nevertheless, BlackRock IBIT had a daily outflow of $40.43 million with a net asset of $44.91 billion.

Sosovalue data Meanwhile, U.S. XRP spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $6.55 million each day. They had a cumulative net inflow of 1.49 billion, and total assets of approximately 987.91 million.

Bitwise’s XRP fund led activity with $6.55 million in inflows. The data indicate that ETF demand is positive prior to CLARITY Act changes.

Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, says the crypto market has entered a meaningful short-term recovery phase, but warns that the bigger bear market trend has not yet ended and further downside remains likely later in the year.

Bitcoin: $73,000 to $74,000 in Sight, But Sub-$50,000 Still Possible

Bitcoin rallied from around $57,800 back to approximately $62,700 and Soloway believes the move has further room to run. His near-term target sits at the $73,000 to $74,000 range, where a key downsloping trend line provides resistance. As long as Bitcoin holds above $58,000 on a confirmed closing basis, he is maintaining a bullish short-term bias.

However, Soloway was clear that this is a swing trade setup, not a reversal of the broader trend. He still expects Bitcoin to eventually break below $50,000 as part of the bear market’s final phase, which he describes as a bottoming process that typically takes the form of a rounded base or cup and handle structure. The trigger for that final flush, in his view, would be a broad risk-off event where capital exits everything, including crypto, gold, and biotech simultaneously.

Ethereum: Parallel Trend Line Breakout Targeting $2,000

Ethereum has broken out of an important trend line structure. He sees initial resistance around $1,800 but expects ETH to push through toward $2,000, where he would reassess. The breakout is notable because the trend lines on Ethereum are running parallel to Bitcoin’s structure, which he says signals order within the broader market chaos.

XRP: Wedge Break Could Mean More Upside

XRP broke out of a multi-month wedge pattern that stretched back to early 2025. The longer a wedge forms, Soloway argues, the larger the breakout move tends to be. XRP has already moved from around $1.02 to $1.17. He expects a pullback toward $1.10 to $1.15 before the next leg higher, targeting the $1.25 resistance zone as an exit point for his current trade.

Story Ends Here

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

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The crypto market has moved from panic to stabilisation over the past week, with Bitcoin successfully defending a critical support level and recovering ground as selling pressure eased, according to Avinash Shekhar, Co-founder and CEO of Pi42.

Bitcoin’s Recovery Reveals Structural Strength

Shekhar told Coinpedia that Bitcoin’s defence of the $58,000 zone and subsequent recovery above $62,000 was not coincidental. It reflected the depth of long-term demand that continues to emerge during periods of weakness.

“The speed of Bitcoin’s recovery once again highlighted the depth of long-term demand emerging during periods of weakness,” Shekhar said. “While volatility remains part of the market, institutional participation showed signs of stabilising.”

He explained that Bitcoin continued to demonstrate relative strength within the broader market, while Ethereum maintained its position as the leading institutional smart contract platform despite comparatively softer price action. 

XRP was among the week’s stronger performers, supported by continued optimism around institutional adoption and ETF participation. Dogecoin also participated in the broader recovery, illustrating that improving confidence tends to extend beyond Bitcoin into established alternative assets as conditions stabilize.

The Fed Is Now Driving Crypto As Much As Crypto-Native Events

A central theme in Shekhar’s analysis is how deeply macroeconomic forces are now shaping digital asset prices. The Federal Reserve dominated investor attention throughout the week, with markets focused on the prospect of rates staying higher for longer and watching labour market data and upcoming inflation readings for signals on the timing of future monetary policy decisions.

“Rather than reacting to crypto-specific events alone, digital assets are increasingly moving alongside broader global liquidity expectations,” Shekhar said, describing this as a reflection of the asset class’s growing integration with traditional financial markets.

Institutional Adoption Building Quietly Beneath the Surface

Beyond price action, Shekhar pointed to a structural story that he believes the market is underpricing. Tokenization initiatives, stablecoin expansion, and growing interest in on-chain financial infrastructure are quietly transforming blockchain from a speculative asset class into the foundation of next-generation financial markets.

“Capital continues to build around long-term utility even as short-term price movements remain driven by macroeconomic conditions,” he said.

What to Watch Next

Looking ahead, Shekhar said the market’s focus will remain on upcoming inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, ETF flow trends, and broader liquidity conditions.

“If macroeconomic uncertainty continues to ease while institutional participation strengthens, digital assets could be well positioned to extend their recovery,” he said, adding that adoption, tokenisation, and real-world blockchain applications will continue to shape the next phase of market growth.

Story Ends Here

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

Sponsored and Advertisements:Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.

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9 Things Michael Saylor Believes About The Next Decade for Bitcoin

Glassnode published a report disclosing that its on-chain metric, the Hyperliquid Entry Price Heatmap, displays traders’ specific position entry prices. Currently, a large volume of long positions in the $72,000–$76,000 range and short positions established around $60,000 are in unrealized losses, leaving the Bitcoin market highly vulnerable to both upward and downward price swings. Price fluctuations could further trigger cascading liquidations.

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8 minutes ago

Current funding rates on major centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) exchanges show that bearish momentum for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) is easing, with market sentiment remaining neutral to slightly bearish.

According to Coinglass data, current funding rates on major centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) crypto exchanges show that the bearish sentiment for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has weakened compared to earlier, but most platforms have not yet formed sustained bullish signals. Specifically, BTC funding rates on multiple platforms hover around the 0.0100% benchmark line, reflecting an overall neutral-to-weak pattern. For ETH, funding rates on multiple platforms have risen above the 0.005% threshold, with ETH’s long sentiment recovering slightly stronger than BTC’s, though no broad bullish signal has emerged yet. BlockBeats Note: Funding rates are fees set by crypto trading platforms to maintain the balance between perpetual contract prices and their underlying asset prices, typically applied to perpetual swaps. They function as a fund exchange mechanism between long and short traders; platforms do not collect this fee, instead using it to adjust the cost or return of holding contracts to keep contract prices aligned with underlying asset prices. A 0.01% funding rate is the benchmark. A rate above 0.01% indicates widespread bullish market sentiment, while a rate below 0.005% signals widespread bearish sentiment.

8 minutes ago

The probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026 has risen to 52%.

According to Polymarket data, the probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026 has climbed to 52%, a 12-percentage-point increase from July 3. On the news front, the U.S. Major County Sheriffs' Association (MCSA) announced that after initially raising concerns about how the bill would affect illicit financial investigations, it no longer opposes the CLARITY Act. Analysts note that the MCSA’s shift in stance has eliminated a key barrier to the bill’s advancement, improving its feasibility of moving to a Senate vote. Still, opposition from the banking sector to stablecoin yield products and DeFi regulation remains a major source of uncertainty.

8 minutes ago

South Korean chip stocks have extremely high leverage concentration, with the asset size of SK Hynix’s leveraged ETF exceeding four times its average daily trading volume.

The Kobeissi Letter stated in a post that leverage levels in South Korean chip stocks have spiraled out of control. Total assets of single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs tracking SK Hynix currently stand at roughly $19 billion, more than four times the stock’s approximately $4.5 billion average daily trading volume (ADTV) this year. Meanwhile, leveraged ETFs linked to Samsung hold around $12.4 billion in assets, a 176% premium over its roughly $4.5 billion ADTV. The Hong Kong-listed 2x long SK Hynix ETF has about $13 billion in assets, roughly double SK Hynix’s average daily stock trading volume — the largest gap among major stocks tracked by leveraged ETFs. By comparison, leveraged ETFs tied to Micron Technology (MU) hold roughly $9.9 billion in assets, below its approximately $27.5 billion ADTV; leveraged ETFs for Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) have around $6 billion and $5.6 billion in assets respectively, also far lower than their respective ADTVs of roughly $23.6 billion and $28.8 billion. Leverage concentration in South Korean chip stocks has reached extremely high levels.

8 minutes ago

Intel is considering adopting a double-sided power supply architecture for its 1.4nm process technology to catch up with TSMC and Samsung.

Intel is considering adopting a dual-side power supply architecture (utilizing both front and back sides) for its 1.4-nanometer ultra-fine process to catch up with competitors. Industry sources said Intel originally planned to use PowerDirect, a dedicated backside power supply technology, for its 1.4-nm base process 14A, but is now considering introducing a dual-side architecture that leverages both front and back sides in its subsequent 14A2 process. Intel previously announced plans to achieve 1.3x higher chip density on its 14A process compared to 18A; the 14A process targets an M0 pitch of around 28nm, while the 14A2 process could push the M0 pitch to 21nm via a half-node improvement. Intel will maintain a backside power network as its primary setup, while reallocating some front-side metal interconnects for auxiliary power and clock signals to compensate for insufficient power headroom caused by scaling and lithography limitations. Intel’s 14A process is scheduled to enter risk production in 2028 and mass production in 2029. The chipmaker needs to release the 0.9 version of its 14A process design kit (PDK) to external customers this October, and secure firm orders from large fabless clients within the following 18 months. By comparison, TSMC plans to ship its true 1.4nm A14 products in 2028, while Samsung Electronics aims to commercialize its SF2Z, a modified 2nm process utilizing backside power supply technology, in 2027.

8 minutes ago

Table of contents

The compensation committee at IREN Limited decided to load up on stock payouts just as the company’s last quarterly filing showed red ink across the board. The Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin miner has granted each of its two co-CEOs—William Roberts and Daniel Roberts—9,099,328 restricted stock units, a combined award worth roughly $700 million on the date it was approved. That single block of equity represents about 5% of the firm’s outstanding shares. The grants come with a six-year vesting and holding schedule and a promise that neither executive will receive another equity award before fiscal 2031, according to the original report.

On the surface, the large award reads as a long-term lock-in designed to align management with strategic targets. But the numbers sit awkwardly against the most recent disclosed results. For the quarter ending December 31, 2025, IREN collected $184.7 million in revenue and booked a net loss of $155.4 million. That operating gap puts the equity grant into uncomfortable relief for shareholders who are being asked to absorb significant dilution while the business bleeds cash.

Behind the Grant Architecture The RSU package does carry strict conditions. With a six-year vesting and holding framework, the co-CEOs cannot simply sell into any near-term price spike. No additional equity grants before FY2031 also means the board is effectively prepaying leadership incentives for the next half-decade, capping further stock-based leak at the top. Still, the sheer size—equivalent to 5% of the company—shifts the ownership structure noticeably. Existing investors will see their proportional claims compressed overnight once the units vest, even if the paper value of the award fluctuates with IREN’s share price.

For a public miner navigating a post-halving environment, capital allocation decisions are under constant scrutiny. The Bitcoin network’s periodic halving cuts the block reward in half, which squeezes revenue per unit of hashrate unless offset by higher BTC prices or lower energy costs. Many listed miners have turned to equity markets repeatedly, and IREN’s move is the latest example where stock becomes the currency for holding onto executive talent rather than a pure growth instrument.

Public Miners and the Dilution Question The timing of IREN’s grant also lands when equity dilution is a sensitive topic across the sector. Several publicly traded mining firms have issued shares to fund expansions and cover operating shortfalls, slowly chipping away at per-share metrics. A 5% block granted to two individuals magnifies the conversation about whether the industry is over-rewarding management before proving sustainable profitability. While the restriction that prohibits further awards until FY2031 offers a ceiling, the immediate impact on diluted share count is real.

The broader digital asset market has been scattered in its performance, with selective rallies in altcoins and tokenized real-world assets grabbing attention, as detailed in recent weekly gainer rankings. Public mining equities, however, often trade as leveraged proxies for Bitcoin, and their shareholder bases have grown tired of uncorrelated corporate decisions that fail to translate into share price recovery. Against that backdrop, a $700 million RSU grant at IREN will be parsed not just as a compensation event but as a governance test.

What Remains Unclear Investors still lack visibility into whether the company can close the gap between revenue and operating costs. The $155.4 million quarterly loss, alongside $184.7 million in revenue, suggests that profitability depends heavily on either a sustained Bitcoin price rally or a transformative drop in energy expenses. Neither is guaranteed. Meanwhile, regulatory noise continues to hang over the industry. A major stablecoin-related bill faced intense lobbying pushback from banks just days before a Senate vote, a reminder that the political environment for crypto infrastructure firms remains fragile, as covered in this legislative update.

There is also the matter of how the market absorbs the eventual vesting. Six years is a long horizon in crypto, but the presence of such a large overhang may already be priced into analyst models. If Bitcoin’s price trajectory doesn’t cooperate, those RSUs could become a heavy burden on the stock long before they convert. What the board is banking on is that locking in the two chief executives will deliver operational turnarounds that reward everyone—something that current financials do not yet show.

The grant also raises a structural question beyond IREN. As institutional adoption of digital assets deepens—exemplified by moves like Bullish acquiring Equiniti for $4.2 billion and the real-world asset market surpassing $20 billion on-chain—mining companies must demonstrate that their corporate governance keeps pace with the sophistication of the capital markets they tap. Massive insider stock awards at a loss-making firm don’t easily fit that narrative.

AUTHOR

Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.

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2 hours ago

JPMorgan has flagged a structural risk most Bitcoin price prediction bulls haven’t priced in: the same entity driving the most aggressive institutional accumulation on record could, under the wrong conditions, become a forced seller.

That tension is now a live market variable. Bitcoin is consolidating near critical technical support while analysts debate whether Saylor’s $150,000 year-end target or JPMorgan’s more measured models better reflect actual market mechanics, and the answer matters for anyone holding BTC into the second half of the year.

JPMorgan’s warning centers on the Strategy’s financing structure. By layering convertible notes, preferred equity, and at-the-money offerings to fund Bitcoin purchases, Strategy has introduced a scenario where credit stress or equity dilution pressure could flip the company from net buyer to net seller. That’s a non-trivial tail risk given Strategy’s scale.

Saylor’s public posture remains unchanged: $150,000 by year-end, $1 million within four to eight years, $20 million over two decades, but the bank’s concern isn’t about Saylor’s conviction. It’s about what the market structure looks like if that conviction ever gets tested by margin mechanics.

This divergence between corporate accumulation narrative and institutional risk modeling is exactly the kind of signal that tends to matter at inflection points.

Bitcoin’s next directional move may hinge less on Saylor’s next purchase announcement and more on how the market digests that structural overhang. Macro liquidity conditions add another layer of complexity to an already crowded decision tree.

Discover: The Best Token Presales

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can Bitcoin Price Reach $150K or Is a Drop to $55K the Real Risk?$60,000 is the line to watch. That level is being treated as primary support by analysts tracking Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase. A hold keeps the recovery thesis intact. A breach does not.

The immediate reclaim zone sits between $62,000 and $64,000. Clearing that range with conviction puts $65,000 back in play, followed by $70,000, which has functioned as both resistance and magnet across multiple recent trading cycles.

Volume confirmation matters. Consolidation without volume expansion is noise, not signal.

Source: BTCUSD / TradingviewBitcoin holding $60,000 and reclaiming $64,000 on volume reasserts the Saylor accumulation narrative as the dominant market frame. JPMorgan’s $170,000 short-term target and eventual $266,000 gold-parity estimate became the base case for institutional positioning.

If neither side takes control, a sideways grind between $60,000 and $65,000 continues as the market digests JPMorgan’s risk framing alongside continued Strategy purchases.

Choppy but not broken. A confirmed close below $60,000 opens a slide toward $55,000, where more bearish analyst models begin to look credible, and amplifies concerns about Strategy’s balance sheet resilience.

The setup is cautious consolidation, not a confirmed breakout. Patience over conviction is the disciplined read right now.

Don’t Miss Out on Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop on ByBit

Bitcoin Hyper Could be The Next 1000x in Crypto And Here is WhyHere’s the uncomfortable reality for spot BTC holders watching JPMorgan’s risk warning land: the upside scenarios above assume Bitcoin’s infrastructure can actually scale to support mass institutional and retail use.

At current throughput, it can’t. That gap between Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative and its transactional limitations is where the next generation of infrastructure plays is being built, and priced at still-early valuations.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning directly in that gap. It’s the first Bitcoin Layer 2 integrating the Solana Virtual Machine, bringing sub-second finality and low-cost smart contract execution to the Bitcoin ecosystem without abandoning BTC’s security model.

The architecture includes a Decentralized Canonical Bridge for native BTC transfers and SVM-powered programmability that the team claims outperforms Solana itself on latency benchmarks. (Whether that holds at scale is the question every serious infrastructure investor should be asking before committing.)

The presale has raised $32,921,487.36 at a current price of $0.0136825, with staking active for early participants. As with any early-stage infrastructure presale, execution risk is real and timelines rarely hold.

Visit Bitcoin Hyper here.

12h05 ▪ 6 min read ▪ by Luc Jose A.

Summarize this article with:

The crypto market is holding its breath. CryptoQuant has just identified one of the largest capital transfers to centralized exchange platforms since the beginning of the year. Behind these on-chain movements lies a signal that investors watch closely: when tokens massively flow to exchanges, volatility often intensifies. As the market goes through a phase of hesitation, these flows revive the specter of a period of high volatility and raise questions about the next direction of prices.

In Brief CryptoQuant detects an exceptional influx of Bitcoin to exchange platforms, a signal historically associated with increased volatility. Whales and institutional investors are increasing their deposits, which heightens fears of short-term selling pressure. The phenomenon now extends to Ether and altcoins, revealing a broader deterioration of sentiment in the crypto market. Between risk of correction below $60,000 and return of capital to Bitcoin ETFs, the market is evolving at a decisive moment. The awakening of whales and the record influx of bitcoin on platforms While Tim Draper denies any transfer, the bitcoin market faces a sudden and spectacular increase in deposits on exchange platforms. Thus, these movements redraw the structure of short-term flows:

Volumes at their highest : BTC volumes transferred to crypto exchanges surged to nearly 49,000 BTC in just the single day of June 30 ; A rare phenomenon : Julio Moreno, head of research at the analytics firm, described this event as “extremely rare”, such intensity having been observed only four other times since the start of the year ; A volatile signal : daily rises approaching the critical threshold of 50,000 BTC have consistently led to volatility and significant directional moves ; CryptoQuant’s confirmation : in his report, Moreno emphasizes “that at these inflow levels, the market absorbs a significant volume of bitcoins repositioned on exchanges, a pattern that has historically preceded significant directional movements”. A detailed examination of these flows reveals a profound change in the type of investors behind these movements. It is not retail investors dictating this trend, but rather whales and institutional structures. The average size of deposit transactions to exchanges has indeed doubled, increasing from about 1 BTC to 2 BTC per transfer.

This metric is particularly feared by specialists, as an increase in average deposit size is considered a much more bearish indicator than a simple rise in overall volumes. It reflects a deliberate repositioning by entities with the greatest financial capacity, which usually constitutes a very reliable leading signal of imminent downward pressure on prices.

The contagion of the on-chain alert to Ether and altcoins This dynamic of repatriating assets to exchange platforms is not limited to bitcoin and now encompasses the entire market. Ether deposits have also crossed an important psychological threshold at the end of June, rising above 1.25 million ETH.

At the same time, the altcoin sector is undergoing a similar phase, with the number of deposit transactions for these secondary assets nearing 45,000 units, marking a near two-month high. Julio Moreno associates these simultaneous movements on BTC and ETH with a global risk aversion, noting that the peak on altcoins represents a “historical price inflection point signal”.

A similar pattern occurred when bitcoin fell from around $82,000 in early May to less than $58,000 at the end of June. The researcher warns that “with the threshold being crossed again while bitcoin tests the $60,000 support, the current setup closely mirrors the pattern that preceded the previous bear phase, warranting increased caution from investors”. These on-chain data translate a global deterioration of operator sentiment, who choose to expose their portfolios to the immediate liquidity of platforms at the expense of long-term storage solutions.

The risk of technical capitulation and institutional arbitrage This accumulation of tokens ready to be liquidated occurs at a pivotal technical moment, as bitcoin oscillates around $62,180. The major support at $60,000 is currently under severe pressure and its definitive break could, according to CryptoQuant, push the price toward its realized price, modeled around $53,000.

Faced with this threat of correction, institutional investment vehicles are trying to counterbalance in the regulated market. SoSoValue data shows that US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $221.7 million, putting a healthy end to a continuous series of ten days of capital outflows.

Interpreting these contradictory signals requires a nuanced analysis of the forces at play for the coming months. On one side, the strong return of buyers via US ETFs reflects a persistent interest of traditional capital to absorb selling pressure below $62,000. On the other, the significant deposits of altcoins and Ether demonstrate that the short-term capitulation risk remains real if the psychological $60,000 barrier were to break. Investors will therefore need to closely watch whether institutional inflows into ETFs will be enough to stabilize the market, or if the tactical repositioning of large whales will ultimately trigger a new global purge of valuations.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $527 million in net outflows over the four trading days ending July 2. The loss marked the eighth straight negative week for the funds and set their longest weekly outflow run since launch.

Summary

Bitcoin ETFs posted their eighth weekly outflow, even after July 2 brought renewed daily inflows. IBIT extended its redemption run, while Fidelity and ARK funds led the rebound day overall. Ether ETFs also stayed negative for the week, but Hyperliquid products still attracted new capital. The weekly decline came even after the products returned to daily inflows on July 2. The data showed that one strong session was not enough to erase heavy redemptions from earlier in the week.

The latest run also followed a weak June for the sector. According to crypto.news, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $4 billion leave the products during June, making it their worst month since approval.

July 2 inflows break daily losing run The daily picture improved on July 2, when Bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million in net inflows. That ended a 10-day withdrawal streak that had pulled nearly $2.7 billion from the funds.

Fidelity’s FBTC led the rebound with about $166 million in inflows. ARK 21Shares’ ARKB added about $91.8 million, while VanEck’s HODL drew about $4.4 million.

BlackRock’s IBIT still moved in the opposite direction. The fund posted about $40.4 million in net outflows, extending its redemption run to 11 straight trading days.

That split kept doubts around the recovery. Crypto.news noted that “One $221 million day against a month of $4 billion proves nothing,” as traders looked for more green sessions across several funds.

IBIT remains the main source of selling IBIT remained the key drag on weekly flows. Farside data showed that the BlackRock fund lost money on each trading day from June 29 through July 2, while some rival funds showed mixed demand.

The fund’s outflows stood out because IBIT has been the largest spot Bitcoin ETF by assets and trading activity. When the largest product keeps bleeding, it can weigh on the full sector even when smaller funds attract fresh capital.

The pattern also showed that ETF demand had not fully recovered. A stronger trend would require more than one inflow day and broader buying across the largest funds.

Bitcoin recovered during the same period. Crypto.news reported that weak U.S. jobs data and softer Federal Reserve comments helped Bitcoin move back above $61,000 after falling below $58,000 earlier in the week.

Ether and Hyperliquid funds show mixed flows U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs also ended the four-day period in negative territory. The products saw net outflows for the week, even though they posted positive daily flows on July 1 and July 2.

BlackRock’s ETHA recorded about $29.7 million in inflows on July 2. That helped the Ethereum ETF group post a positive daily result, but it did not fully offset earlier losses.

Hyperliquid ETFs stayed positive for the week, but demand slowed. Farside data showed about $4.3 million in net inflows across June 29 to July 2.

The figure was far below the previous week’s strong total. This showed that demand for smaller crypto ETF products remained active, but investors moved with more caution.

Market focus shifts to ETF breadth The next focus for traders is whether ETF inflows can spread across more products. A single strong day can ease pressure, but it does not confirm a wider recovery.

The market will also watch IBIT closely. If BlackRock’s fund continues to record outflows, the ETF sector may stay under pressure despite inflows into rival products.At the same time, whale activity has sent a different signal. Crypto.news reported that large Bitcoin wallets accumulated about 270,000 BTC while ETFs saw record outflows in June.

As of then, the data shows a split market. ETF investors have reduced exposure for eight weeks, while some large on-chain holders have added Bitcoin during the selloff.

Table of contents

Bitcoin’s oldest unsolved vulnerability has collided with its most sacred principle, and one of the loudest voices in the room wants a drastic fix. Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao argued over the July 4 weekend that Satoshi Nakamoto’s estimated 1.1 million bitcoin stash should be frozen before sufficiently advanced quantum computers can move it—or steal it. The proposal landed like a sledgehammer in a debate that had simmered for years.

The argument, detailed in a CoinDesk report, is not merely technical. It directly pits Bitcoin’s immutability—the guarantee that on-chain ownership cannot be altered retroactively—against a future security crisis that some researchers believe could materialize within a decade. For CZ, freezing the coins now, before a quantum attacker could derive the private keys from public keys exposed in early pay-to-public-key transactions, is a pragmatic choice. For many core developers and maximalists, it is heresy.

The Immutability Debate Reignites The Satoshi coins are a special case. They sit behind cryptographic keys that pre-date modern address formats, making them especially vulnerable to quantum attacks that can solve the discrete logarithm problem. If a quantum adversary moved even a fraction of that hoard, it would flood the market and shatter confidence. Yet the fix—a network-wide soft fork to render those coins unspendable—would require overwhelming consensus and set a precedent for freezing anyone’s bitcoin under the right set of justifications.

This is not the first time the community has debated altering the ledger. The 2016 Ethereum DAO fork led to a chain split and remains the defining cautionary tale. Bitcoin avoided that path, at great cost to the minority chain, precisely to uphold the principle that code and ownership history are final. CZ’s suggestion revisits that boundary, but with a novel urgency: the quantum clock.

Quantum Computing: A Real but Distant Threat A quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin’s secp256k1 elliptic curve does not exist today. Estimates vary wildly on when it might. IBM’s roadmaps and Google’s milestones show progress but remain orders of magnitude short of the millions of logical qubits needed. Still, the timeline is narrowing. Advances in error correction and qubit scaling have pushed some forecasts to the late 2030s, which for a settlement layer that aspires to multigenerational permanence is uncomfortably close.

Freezing the Satoshi supply would be a brute-force stopgap. More elegant solutions exist: a network upgrade to post-quantum signature schemes, which researchers and standards bodies are actively shaping. But a protocol-level migration would require every holder to move funds to new addresses—an operation that, if delayed too long, could itself be beaten by quantum speed. The Satoshi coins complicate that migration because nobody can sign for them.

That is the crux of CZ’s argument. If Satoshi is deceased or has lost the keys, those coins will never move voluntarily. Their public keys are exposed, making them a honeypot. A quantum thief would not need to negotiate a soft fork; they would simply take the coins, instantly creating the most chaotic supply event in Bitcoin’s history.

Market and Governance Fallout Even the mere discussion of freezing coins reverberates through market structure. Traders and institutional custodians watch governance debates closely, because any consensus-based alteration of the UTXO set erodes the analog to a sovereign monetary policy. A precedent that coins can be frozen to preempt theft might, in the wrong hands, become a wedge for state-level intervention. The line between protecting the network and breaking its neutrality is thin.

That same tension is playing out in Washington, as the ongoing legislative battle over crypto market structure pits traditional banks against industry-backed compromises. When the largest exchange founder publicly advocates altering the ledger, it blurs the boundary between voluntary consensus and external pressure. Regulators will almost certainly note the conversation.

Miners and nodes would have the final say. A soft fork to freeze specific UTXOs would require an overwhelming majority to activate. If it fails, Bitcoin retains its immutability but carries the quantum risk. If it succeeds, it broadcasts a signal that the network can be engineered to solve specific, high-stakes edge cases—a message that both excites and terrifies different corners of the market.

What remains wholly uncertain is whether the debate will accelerate adoption of quantum-resistant cryptography rather than stopgap measures. Developer resources and attention are finite. The community’s ability to coordinate under a known, ticking threat has never been tested. CZ’s statement may not decide the outcome, but it has already forced the conversation out of niche developer circles and onto the main stage.

No software proposal has been formally drafted, and no immediate protocol change is expected. Still, the split among experts underscores a deeper question that Bitcoin will have to answer this decade: whether the ledger is an immutable record, or a system that can be adapted to survive existential threats. The Satoshi hoard, sitting silently on the chain, now represents the most expensive philosophical stress test in crypto.

AUTHOR

Brenda is a writer with three years of experience specializing in cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies. She graduated from the University of Mombasa with a degree in Psychology. She has worked at Cryptopolitan and Blockchain Reporter.

Bitcoin at $1 Million? Ledger Co-Founder Warns It Won’t Be Good News

TLDR BTC surged past $63,000 for the first time in a fortnight, posting a 1.4% gain over 24 hours XRP emerged as the top performer, jumping 5.3% to reach $1.18 and surpassing USDC by market capitalization The realized profit and loss ratio for Bitcoin plummeted to -0.35, its lowest reading in 43 months—a metric historically tied to cyclical lows Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, suggested the market floor is “closer than ever” with a potential new uptrend emerging this autumn Supportive macroeconomic conditions, including Federal Reserve Chair remarks on cooling inflation and weaker employment data, contributed to the upward momentum Bitcoin breached the $63,000 threshold on Saturday, July 4th, erasing the declines witnessed during the final days of June. This advance marks the cryptocurrency’s strongest price point in fourteen days.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Throughout a 24-hour period, Bitcoin appreciated by 1.4%, while notching a 3.6% increase across the week, per CoinDesk market data. The upward movement occurred amid reduced trading volumes due to the Independence Day holiday closure of U.S. financial markets.

XRP distinguished itself as the leading gainer among major digital assets. The token surged 5.3% to $1.18 and registered nearly 10% growth over the seven-day timeframe. This performance elevated XRP beyond USDC stablecoin to claim the fifth position in overall market capitalization, reaching approximately $73 billion.

Ethereum advanced 3.2% during the day to approximately $1,793, accumulating an 11.5% gain over the week. Solana maintained levels near $82.50 with a 13.2% weekly increase, while Dogecoin appreciated 2.6%.

What Drove the Move The week’s positive trajectory was underpinned by improving macroeconomic conditions. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that inflationary pressures have moderated. A disappointing June employment report reinforced this narrative, and bearish traders were forced to cover positions as values climbed.

This convergence of factors propelled Bitcoin from beneath $60,000 to above $63,000 within five consecutive trading days.

Market analyst Ted Pillows highlighted on X that Bitcoin had approached a critical resistance threshold. He observed that a sustained move above $62,800 could propel pricing toward $65,000.

Santiment Intelligence also provided commentary, observing that Bitcoin has advanced 6.1% since June 30, while gold appreciated 4.8% and the S&P 500 remained unchanged. Santiment noted that purchasers re-entered the market near crucial support zones following prolonged periods of market anxiety, exchange-traded fund redemptions, and pessimistic investor sentiment.

✍️ TL;DR: Bitcoin & crypto markets have spent the week slowly catching up to flat stocks
📊 Metrics Used: Price Comparison
🔗 Link to chart: https://t.co/zYCktJUqT7

📈 Crypto is finally showing some real catch-up energy heading into the July 4th weekend. Since June 30th, Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/nXLT1HDARz

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) July 3, 2026

What the On-Chain Data Shows Blockchain data provider CryptoQuant documented that Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio descended to -0.35, representing a 43-month nadir. This measurement hasn’t registered at such depths since December 2022, immediately following the FTX exchange implosion that drove Bitcoin beneath $16,000.

Source: CryptoQuant CryptoQuant emphasized that this metric has traditionally identified BTC pricing floors. Comparable measurements materialized in 2015 and 2019, both preceding significant upward movements.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that the recent STRC preferred share liquidation from Strategy eliminated excessive leverage and probably positioned the market nearer to a foundational bottom.

Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston highlighted that Bitcoin is presently trading merely 16% above its realized price. Historical patterns suggest this level has consistently preceded forward performance of 41% over six-month periods and 81% across twelve-month horizons.

Bitcoin commenced the third quarter at 21-month lows following a 50% retreat from its October peak of $126,080. The cryptocurrency touched a nearly two-year low of $58,190 on June 25 before initiating the current rebound phase.

13h05 ▪ 3 min read ▪ by Fenelon L.

Summarize this article with:

Nearly one million TRUMP wallets show cumulative losses of 3.81 billion dollars by the end of June, according to Nansen. However, President Trump received 636 million dollars thanks to this same token, reveals his annual financial statement. The distribution of gains nevertheless clearly leans to one side.

In brief Nearly one million wallets, or two out of three buyers, show losses on the TRUMP token by the end of June, totaling 3.81 billion dollars. Donald Trump declared 636 million dollars of income linked to this token in his annual financial declaration, published on June 30 by the Office of Government Ethics. The TRUMP token trades around 1.78 dollars, down 97% since its peak in January 2025. Losses concentrated among the most recent buyers Out of 1.48 million wallets having purchased the TRUMP token, 988,905 show losses by the end of June. This total also includes unrealized losses on tokens still held.

The very first buyers hold most of the gains. They entered below the dollar mark, before the token surged to 75 dollars two days later.

On all wallets combined, gains and losses almost balance out. The net balance reaches about 236 million dollars.

This amount represents barely one third of the 636 million declared by Trump. These figures come from a report by The Block.

Why does Trump’s financial declaration rekindle the controversy? The 927-page asset declaration details the origin of these revenues. Published on June 30 by the Office of Government Ethics, it lists payments passing through CIC Digital LLC.

These amounts add, moreover, to hundreds of millions of dollars linked to World Liberty Financial. This decentralized finance project is partly owned by the Trump family.

Donald Trump has, however, already dismissed criticisms regarding these revenues. He claims that external institutions manage his money, for the benefit of the entire crypto sector.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly defends this record. She asserts that the administration acts in the interest of Americans.

The WLFI token, linked to the same project, shows a similar record. Nansen tracks 26,663 wallets that have bought WLFI on secondary markets.

Among them, 85% are at a loss. These losses reach 83 million dollars versus 23 million dollars in gains.

The broader crypto market downturn also amplifies this contrast. Bitcoin has dropped about 50% since its October record above 126,000 dollars, bringing the market capitalization of the TRUMP token to 425 million dollars, compared to nearly 15 billion at its peak in January 2025.

This decline occurs as Congress reviews the CLARITY Act. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is pushing to ban elected officials from issuing tokens, a provision already dropped from the GENIUS Act when it was adopted last year.

This contrast between presidential revenues and losses of small holders continues to fuel criticism of crypto regulation issued by public officials, a topic Congress has yet to decide on.

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Fenelon L.

Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun reportedly transferred a portion of his WBTC and ETH purchases from June to Binance, making a profit of approximately $3.4 million at current prices.

According to on-chain data, Wang Chun purchased approximately 70,600 ETH and 966 WBTC in June. The total value of these purchases is estimated to be around $117 million for ETH and approximately $60.29 million for WBTC.

Following the recovery in the cryptocurrency market in July, Wang Chun reportedly transferred 36,600 ETH and 160 WBTC to Binance in recent days. These transfers are believed to be aimed at profit-taking after the dips seen in June.

On the other hand, another significant transaction that caught attention in the market came from a wallet allegedly linked to Mining Express. Approximately 16 hours ago, this wallet reportedly exchanged 5,004 ETH for around 8.8 million DAI.

Blockchain researcher Specter stated that he first identified this address on June 15th, but recently completed the detailed tracking and analysis process. Specter also shared multiple linked wallets to verify the address.

This large-scale ETH swap has raised questions in the market regarding past fund movements and potential liquidation motivations. According to Specter’s analysis, the address has an on-chain connection to the Mining Express project, launched in Ukraine in 2019 by Brazilian founder Kaze Fuziyama.

Mining Express initially attracted investors with a multi-level marketing model, but was later accused of being a Ponzi scheme. After halting repayments, the project shifted its focus to cloud rendering and similar business models.

Historical on-chain records show that the wallet in question received 4,512 ETH from a linked address on March 19, 2024, and subsequently staked these assets via Lido and Ether.fi. As of April 2026, all of the ETH was staked, and it was completely unstaken on May 4th.

*This is not investment advice.

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Cardano's ADA has also shown positive signs of a more profound revival.

Bitcoin’s gradual price recovery that began after the early July correction continues, as the asset briefly exceeded $63,000 yesterday and now stands around that level.

Most larger-cap alts remain relatively sluggish on a daily scale, aside from SOL, HYPE, and XLM, which have dropped by up to 4%, and ADA and BCH, which have posted notable gains.

BTC Eyes $63K June was quite painful for the primary cryptocurrency, as it dropped by over 20%. July began on a similar note, as the asset dipped below $58,000 to chart a new multi-year low. However, the bulls finally intervened at this point and didn’t allow another leg down.

Just the opposite; bitcoin started to recover some ground and quickly reclaimed the $60,000 mark. After a brief dip below that line, the bulls went on the offensive once again, pushing the asset to $62,000 as the net withdrawals from the ETFs eased and investors poured some money in on Thursday.

BTC remained calm at above $61,000 and jumped once again on Saturday and earlier this morning, going to a multi-week peak of $63,400. Although it was stopped there, it now trades close to $63,000, posting a near 5% increase on a weekly scale.

Its market capitalization has risen to $1.260 trillion on CoinGecko, but its dominance over the altcoins remains well below 57%.

BTCUSD July 5. Source: TradingView LAB Rockets Ethereum was stopped at $1,800 yesterday and now sits at just over $1,760. BNB’s run couldn’t reclaim $580, and the asset trades below that level now. XRP is under $1.15, while SOL is testing the $80 support after a 2.4% daily decline.

HYPE and XLM have dropped even harder, with a 4% decrease from the former and a 3.4% dip from the latter. In contrast, ADA continues its recovery with another 9% surge to well over $0.19. BCH is up by around 6% and sits at $240.

LAB is by far the top gainer today, having skyrocketed by 80%. The asset, which has seen some intense volatility as of late, now trades at over $16.

The total crypto market cap has increased slightly from yesterday and now sits at $2.230 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview July 5. Source: QuantifyCrypto

Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy recently told Fox Business’ *Varney & Co.* that he will not sell his Bitcoin holdings even if the cryptocurrency drops to zero. He told host Stuart Varney, “I’m holding on forever, even if it goes to zero,” adding that he would rather “go down with the ship” this time than repeat his past mistake of selling only to see prices surge afterward. Portnoy admitted he bought Bitcoin at a high near $100,000 and is now sitting on millions in unrealized losses. He confessed that his Bitcoin trade is “the biggest mistake I’ve ever made,” noting that every time he sells, prices skyrocket, and every time he buys, prices drop. Notably, Portnoy has a history of controversial moves in the meme coin space: In February 2025, he launched the GREED token on Pump.fun, bought 35.79% of its total supply, then dumped all his holdings at once, causing the token to crash 99% while he pocketed around $258,000 in profits. After facing backlash, he released GREED2 and JAILSTOOL in succession, admitting during a live stream that he “did consider a rug pull, and might still be thinking about it.” He has also been involved in the collapse of the LIBRA token, which was endorsed by Argentine President Javier Milei: he bought $4.5 million worth of the token, later recovering $5 million in compensation. Earlier, he settled a lawsuit related to SafeMoon for $20,000.

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Summary

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record June outflows, with more than $4 billion leaving as institutional risk appetite weakened. Whale wallets accumulated about 270,000 BTC worth $16.7 billion during the same period, signaling strong on-chain buying. The split suggests Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether ETF flows recover or macro pressure forces another leg lower. Two things happened in the Bitcoin market in the second half of June, and they cannot both be right.

The first happened in brokerage accounts. United States spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $4.06 billion in June, the worst calendar month since the products launched in January 2024, surpassing the previous record of $3.56 billion set in February 2025.

Depending on where the cutoff lands, some counts put the figure closer to $4.5 billion. The bleeding was not a single bad week: it followed a record 13-day outflow streak from mid-May that had already drained $4.37 billion, and by month-end the funds were net negative for 2026 as a whole, the first time cumulative yearly flows have gone red since the ETFs existed. The largest fund did most of the draining, shedding roughly $3.55 billion on its own.

The second happened on-chain. Over the final 2 weeks of that same stretch, wallets classified as whales accumulated more than 270,000 BTC, roughly $16.7 billion at prevailing prices, according to Bitfinex analysts. The buying happened while the spot premium, a gauge of how aggressively United States buyers are bidding, stayed negative, meaning the demand was not coming from American spot desks. Glassnode’s cohort data confirmed the shift from a second angle: long-term holders flipped back to net accumulation across wallet sizes at the start of July, even as the ETF prints stayed red.

$4 billion walked out one door while $16 billion walked in another. That is not noise. That is the two most-watched capital cohorts in this market taking opposite sides of the same trade at the same prices, and the resolution of that disagreement is the Bitcoin story for the rest of the year.

The month that broke the ETF narrative The scale of June’s institutional retreat deserves its own accounting, because the spot ETFs were supposed to be the structural bid that made this cycle different.

The pitch, repeated across 2 years of allocator decks, was that regulated wrappers would convert Bitcoin from a sentiment asset into an allocation, with sticky advisory money arriving in measured percentages and staying through drawdowns the way it stays in equity funds.

For most of 2024 and 2025, the pitch held: inflows compounded, the products swallowed multiples of new mined supply, and every dip met a wrapper-shaped bid. June was the first month that tested the sticky part of the story at scale, and the answer was unambiguous. Faced with a real macro shock, the allocation behaved exactly like every other risk allocation in the book, which is to say it left, on schedule, through the most liquid exit, without ceremony.

Price told the top-line story: Bitcoin fell from around $74,000 to near $58,000 across the month, touched 21-month lows, and closed a week below its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023, a line that has historically marked deep cycle lows and long accumulation zones. Sentiment followed price into the basement, with the Fear and Greed Index pinned between 11 and 15, deep in extreme fear, through the back half of the month. Retail’s search behavior matched the mood: queries for Bitcoin going to 0 hit record highs earlier this year, and broader crypto search interest has only recently begun recovering from 1-year lows.

The flow mechanics beneath the price were the real damage. As crypto.news reported when the record was confirmed, the Coinbase Premium stayed negative through June, apparent demand stayed deeply negative, and ETF redemptions became the dominant driver of daily price action, averaging out to roughly $180 million to $200 million in net selling per trading day. When the products finally printed a green day on July 2, a $221 million inflow that ended a 10-day losing streak, the breadth told its own story: One fund took in $166 million while the largest fund was still bleeding $40 million on the day flows supposedly turned.

Three forces stacked up to produce the exodus. Macro did the heavy lifting: May inflation printed a hot 4.2%, the Federal Reserve spent June sounding restrictive, and institutional risk mandates de-allocate mechanically when real-rate expectations rise, without any view on Bitcoin specifically. Regulatory whiplash added a second layer, with the market structure fight in the Senate stalling and starting through the month, leaving custody and licensing frameworks unresolved for exactly the institutions the ETFs serve. And a third force was more mundane: competition for risk capital.

The SpaceX listing raised $75 billion in the middle of the drawdown, the largest liquidity event in market history, and some of the money that would otherwise have sat in crypto risk simply had somewhere more exciting to be, a dynamic that carried straight into the tokenized trading frenzy around the stock.

Whatever the weights on those three, the conclusion the flows describe is uniform: the marginal institutional holder of wrapped Bitcoin spent June getting out.

Inside the machine that sold The phrase ETF outflows compresses a mechanical process worth uncompressing, because the mechanics explain why the selling was so relentless and why it can reverse just as mechanically.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs do not hold sentiment; they hold coins against shares. When holders sell more shares than buyers absorb, authorized participants redeem the excess, the fund sheds Bitcoin, and the coins hit the market as programmatic supply. Through June, that redemption machine ran nearly every session, and the composition mattered as much as the total.

The largest fund was the epicenter, accounting for roughly $3.55 billion of the month’s bleed on its own, which reads less as 1,000 small investors leaving and more as a handful of very large allocators de-risking through the deepest door available. Smaller funds bled proportionally less, and when the streak finally broke on July 2, the breadth stayed poor: the $221 million net inflow decomposed into one rival fund absorbing $166 million while the flagship still lost $40 million.

A genuine flow regime change looks like several consecutive green days across the complex, led by the largest fund; one day of one fund catching a falling knife does not qualify, and desks that trade these flows professionally treat anything less than 3-5 confirming sessions as noise.

The forced-seller identity question has a partial answer in the parallel stress that ran through the corporate treasury complex during the same weeks. Strategy’s preferred shares sold off hard enough that Bitwise published a note framing the episode as a late-cycle leverage unwind, with over-extended structures deleveraging while institutions positioned to replace them as the marginal buyer. Miners added their own supply, with MARA’s reported $1.5 billion Bitcoin sale putting the biggest corporate mining treasury on the sell side just as ETF redemptions peaked.

Add the SpaceX raise vacuuming $75 billion of risk appetite out of the same investor base, and June’s selling resolves into something more specific than fear: a synchronized deleveraging across every wrapped, leveraged, and mandated form of Bitcoin exposure at once, while the unwrapped form of the asset quietly changed hands underneath.

That specificity matters for what comes next. Deleveraging events are finite by construction: forced sellers run out of the thing they are forced to sell.

Sentiment-driven bear markets can grind for years, but a leverage unwind ends when the leverage is gone, and several of June’s selling engines, the redemption streak, the preferred-share stress, the miner treasury sales, have visibly decelerated into July.

The buyers who showed up anyway Now the other side of the ledger, because it is bigger.

The 270,000 BTC that whale wallets absorbed in 2 weeks is not a normal accumulation print. It is more than the entire ETF complex sold in the month, absorbed in half the time, at prices between roughly $58,000 and $62,000. The negative spot premium during the buying window is the detail that locates the buyers: this demand was not United States spot desks and not the ETF creation mechanism. It was large holders, a category that spans exchanges, custodians, early-cycle capital, and entities that never touch a regulated wrapper, taking delivery while the wrapper crowd distributed.

Glassnode’s supply data adds the pain context that makes the accumulation more notable, not less. At the start of July, roughly 10.8 million BTC sat at an unrealized loss against 9.2 million in profit, a ratio that historically appears near capitulation zones, not near tops. Long-term holders turning to net accumulation into that kind of tape is the specific pattern that marked the depths of 2022 and the pre-ETF trough of 2023: the coins move from stressed hands to patient ones before any recovery shows up in price, and the transfer is only visible in hindsight to anyone watching price alone.

The whale cohort’s composition is admittedly opaque, and honest analysis says so. Wallets above 1,000 BTC are a crude proxy that includes exchange consolidation, custodial reshuffling, and over-the-counter settlement alongside genuine conviction buying. But the 2-week scale, the direction, and the corroboration from long-term holder metrics make the benign explanations hard to stretch across the whole print. Someone with size decided that sub-$60,000 Bitcoin was a purchase, at the exact moment the most regulated distribution channel in the asset’s history was running in reverse.

There is also a rotation story inside the accumulation. The buying coincided with capital moving toward on-chain yield and infrastructure rather than away from crypto entirely: tokenized real-world assets crossed $20 billion in on-chain value, and Solana, the strongest major through the drawdown, rose about 15% since early June with tokenized asset transfers on the network up 120% to $8.53 billion, extending the performance gap that has defined the L1 race all year. The pattern suggests large investors were not abandoning the asset class. They were leaving the most liquid, most scrutinized wrapper and taking positions closer to the metal.

10 straight days of $BTC ETF outflows, 35,980 BTC gone, yet price up 3% above $62.5k. Whales absorbing the sell pressure while retail panics. This is textbook accumulation. The discord saw this divergence early – link in bio pic.twitter.com/eeTNxp7vrS

— CT Anano (@CT_Anano) July 4, 2026 That rotation reframes what the ETF outflows even measure. The funds were sold to the world as the institutionalization of Bitcoin, and their flows became the market’s favorite proxy for smart money. June exposed the proxy’s limits: the wrapper tracks one specific investor type, the benchmark-constrained allocator, whose behavior is the most macro-sensitive and least conviction-driven in the entire holder base.

The actual institutional spectrum now runs from those allocators through corporate treasuries, miners, sovereign-adjacent funds, and on-chain natives, and in June those groups pointed in three different directions at once. Reading Bitcoin through ETF flows alone in this market is like reading equities through one mutual fund complex: informative, loud, and structurally incomplete.

What the divergence has meant before Splits between institutional flows and on-chain accumulation are rare enough to have a track record, and the track record leans one way.

The clearest precedent predates the ETFs: through late 2022 and 2023, while the Grayscale trust traded at a discount that made institutional sentiment look terminal, and every regulated access story was going backward, large wallets accumulated through the low $20,000s and teens. The buyers who tracked institutional sentiment missed the bottom; the ones who tracked coins on the move caught it.

February 2025 offered a smaller rehearsal of the current setup, with the then-record $3.56 billion ETF outflow month arriving alongside stubborn on-chain absorption, followed by recovery once the macro trigger faded. Bitfinex analysts framed June’s version explicitly in those terms: simultaneous institutional selling and whale accumulation is the pattern that has appeared near past cycle lows, where long-term holders take supply off sellers before the recovery reaches price.

The pattern’s logic is structural, not mystical. ETF flows are downstream of mandates, benchmarks, and quarterly reviews, which makes them systematically late in both directions: the wrapper crowd bought the top of the euphoria and is now selling the bottom of the fear, because that is what risk-managed allocation does. On-chain whales answer to no committee. When the two disagree, the disagreement itself is the signal, because it marks the moment coins transfer from mandate-driven hands to conviction-driven ones.

Retail sentiment data rounds out the historical picture from the contrarian side. Record-high searches for Bitcoin going to 0, extreme-fear readings pinned for weeks, and supply majority-underwater have each individually marked accumulation zones in prior cycles; their simultaneous appearance alongside documented whale absorption is the full bingo card. The caveat that keeps the pattern honest is that sentiment extremes date bottoms only in retrospect, and the same indicators flashed for months through late 2022 while price kept sliding. Fear confirms opportunity for buyers with time horizons measured in years. It punishes everyone else.

None of that makes the signal infallible, and the bear case deserves its full weight. A divergence is not a timing tool: whales were also early in 2022, absorbing supply months before the actual low, and anyone who leveraged the accumulation thesis got carried out before being proven right.

The macro trigger has not disarmed, either. The next inflation print is the live variable, and a hot number would reload the exact mechanism that drained $4 billion in June, since nothing about whale accumulation prevents mandate-driven funds from selling more. Bitwise’s read of the parallel stress in Strategy’s preferred shares, that the market is working through a late-cycle leverage unwind, cuts both ways: unwinds end at bottoms, but they end violently, and the last leg is usually the worst one.

Reading the whale cohort honestly The 1,000 BTC threshold that defines a whale wallet captures several very different animals, and the interpretation of the accumulation depends on which ones did the buying.

The most bullish reading assigns the coins to conviction capital: family offices, early holders reloading, sovereign-adjacent vehicles, and the class of buyer that accumulates through over-the-counter desks precisely to avoid moving the price. The negative spot premium through the buying window supports this reading, since it rules out the visible United States bid, and OTC accumulation into weakness is the classic signature of patient size.

The most boring reading assigns some of the movement to plumbing: exchanges consolidating cold storage, custodians migrating wallets, and settlement flows that inflate cohort statistics without expressing any view. The truth is a blend, and serious on-chain analysts hold the number loosely for exactly that reason.

Two cross-checks tilt the blend toward conviction. The first is the long-term holder metric, which is behavior-based instead of size-based: coins that have not moved in months turning into net accumulation is hard to generate with custodial reshuffling, and Glassnode flagged that shift across cohorts at the start of July. The second is the duration of the pattern. Wallet consolidation is lumpy and episodic; the June accumulation ran daily, through a 2-week window, against a falling price, which is the shape of a program, not a migration. Whoever was executing wanted more Bitcoin every day the price stayed under $62,000, and got it.

It is also worth noting who the whales are buying from, because supply has a face too. The ETF redemptions put a regulated, auditable seller on the tape every session. Miners under margin pressure added inventory. Short-term holders who bought the $70,000s capitulated at 21-month lows, the behavior that pushed over half the supply underwater. The full picture is a wealth transfer with unusually clean bookkeeping: from leveraged, mandated, and exhausted hands into large, unhurried ones, at prices the buyers evidently considered a discount.

The scenario map from $62,000 Divergences resolve, and this one has three plausible endings with watchable triggers.

The repair scenario is the historical base case. Macro softens, the July inflation print cooperates, ETF flows string together green sessions with breadth, and the price reclaims the 200-week average, converting June into another entry in the ledger of cycle lows that on-chain accumulation called early. The whales’ entry zone between $58,000 and $62,000 becomes the level the market defends, because the buyers who own it have shown they defend it. Confirmation looks like the flagship fund flipping to inflows and $62,500 breaking on volume.

The chop scenario is the underpriced one. Inflation stays sticky without spiking, the Fed stays parked, and the market grinds sideways for a quarter while ETF flows oscillate around 0. Whale accumulation in this world is early rather than wrong, the 2022 pattern, where large wallets absorbed supply for months before price agreed with them. The tell is time: patient capital does not mind, leveraged capital dies, and funding rates across the perpetuals complex show which cohort is being tested week by week.

The break scenario is the one the bears own. A hot CPI reloads the redemption machine, the 200-week average rejects the recovery, and $58,000 fails, opening the trapdoor toward the low $50,000s that technicians have flagged since the June breakdown. Even then, the divergence data offers the bears only half a victory: it would mean the whales were early again, not that the transfer did not happen, and every prior cycle says the coins that moved in June do not come back out at these levels regardless of what the next quarter’s candles look like.

There is one more asymmetry the bulls gloss over: the two cohorts do not experience being wrong the same way. If the whales are early, they wait, unleveraged and unbothered, the way they waited through 2022. If the ETF sellers are wrong, they will buy back in at higher prices, book the round trip as risk management, and their investors will barely notice. The divergence is a strong signal about where coins are going and a weak one about when price follows, and conflating those two claims is how retail traders turn a sound accumulation thesis into a liquidation.

The tape since the split The first days of July have started scoring the disagreement, gently, in the whales’ favor. Fed chair Kevin Warsh acknowledged at the Sintra forum that inflation expectations had come down, and Bitcoin jumped more than 4% through $61,000 on the repricing of rate-hike risk. Two days later, a soft jobs report, 57,000 payrolls against expectations near 100,000 with 74,000 in downward revisions, extended the move, and Bitcoin printed $62,310 on Friday, its strongest level in 10 days, while equities set records and the ETF complex managed its first inflow in 2 weeks.

The checkpoints from here are unusually clean. Flows first: One $221 million day against a month of $4 billion proves nothing, and systematic desks want several consecutive green sessions with breadth across funds, including the largest one, before treating the reversal as a regime change rather than a bounce. Price second: $62,500 is the resistance the whole market is watching, and the 200-week average overhead is the structural line that separates a reclaimed cycle from a broken one. Macro third: the next CPI print either confirms Warsh’s softening or reloads the outflow machine.

And underneath all three sits the quieter metric that started this story: whether the coins keep moving to hands that do not sell on committee schedules. The divergence will close one way or the other, because it always does. Either the ETF sellers return as buyers at higher prices, which is how every prior version of this split resolved, or the whales have mistimed a macro regime that mandate money saw first, which would be a first. $16 billion in 2 weeks says the largest holders in the market have already placed their answer. The exit Wall Street used in June is still open. It is just worth noticing who was standing on the other side of it, catching everything that came through.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset markets are volatile, and you can lose your entire investment. Always do your own research. Information current as of July 4, 2026.