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TLDR: BitGo announces Quantum Risk Score to measure exposure across Bitcoin wallet addresses.  New Fix Exposed Addresses workflow moves funds into keys with stronger hygiene practices.  UTXO selection method groups addresses by wallet to limit exposure from partial spends.  Belshe says safest key is one whose public key stays unrevealed on the blockchain. BitGo is announcing new quantum risk management capabilities for bitcoin wallets. The launch adds a Quantum Risk Score, a guided workflow for exposed addresses, a new UTXO selection method, and updated default controls. These tools build on BitGo’s existing multi-signature architecture for institutional clients.

BitGo Rolls Out Quantum-Focused Wallet Controls Built On Multi-Signature Security BitGo Holdings, Inc., trading as NYSE: BTGO, confirmed the launch as an expansion of its long-standing wallet security model.

The company built its reputation on multi-signature custody, a structure designed to remove single points of failure. This announcement adds quantum-focused tools directly into that same framework.

The centerpiece of the release is the Quantum Risk Score, a scoring system built into BitGo’s platform. It allows institutions to assess exposure levels across supported Bitcoin wallets in one place.

Clients can identify which addresses carry elevated risk due to public keys already visible on-chain. The score does not require a change to existing custody arrangements to be useful.

Paired with the score, BitGo introduced a guided remediation workflow named Fix Exposed Addresses. This tool walks clients through moving funds from higher-risk addresses into newly generated ones.

The new addresses follow improved key hygiene practices from the moment they are created. For institutions managing large wallet volumes, this removes much of the manual work involved.

Mike Belshe, CEO and Co-founder of BitGo, explained the reasoning behind the release. “We believe the safest key is one whose public key has never been revealed on-chain,” he said.

“These capabilities give institutions a practical way to understand and reduce quantum exposure while continuing to rely on the proven security of multi-signature.”

Additional Tools Target UTXO Handling And Wallet Defaults Alongside the risk score, BitGo announced a new UTXO selection method aimed at reducing exposure from partial spends.

This method groups and prioritizes unspent transaction outputs by address instead of handling them separately. The approach limits how often public keys get revealed during normal wallet activity.

BitGo was clear that some address types fall outside this particular tool’s scope. Formats like Taproot and Pay-to-Public-Key expose a public key from the moment they are created.

Funds already held in those address types require separate remediation steps, a distinction BitGo highlighted directly in its announcement.

The company also announced updated default address-type controls as part of the same release. These changes adjust how new wallets behave by default, reducing reliance on patterns tied to added quantum-related exposure. BitGo positioned this update as a companion to future protocol-level changes rather than a substitute for them.

Adam Back, Co-Founder and CEO of Blockstream and BSTR, weighed in on the timing of the release. “Nobody has a quantum computer that can touch Bitcoin today, but that’s exactly why the work should start now, while it’s calm and optional rather than urgent and forced,” he said.

Belshe echoed that same view when describing the broader strategy behind the launch. “We believe institutions do not need to wait for a quantum event to begin managing quantum risk,” he added.

“The right approach is to reduce exposure now, harden wallet operations, and prepare for the migration from today’s security models to future post-quantum standards.”

BitGo maintained that institutions do not need to wait for an actual quantum event before acting. The announcement frames quantum risk management as routine operational hygiene, one step in a longer migration toward post-quantum wallet standards.

Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.

Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.

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Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.

Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.

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OKX to list Solstice (SLX) spot trading

According to official announcements, OKX will launch spot trading for Solstice (SLX) at 20:00 on July 10. Users can start depositing assets at 10:00 the same day, pre-place orders for SLX/USDT between 19:00 and 20:00, and withdrawals will open at 22:00.

8 minutes ago

The AI arms race has driven record bond issuance by tech giants, with six major tech companies issuing $182 billion in investment-grade bonds this year.

The Kobeissi Letter noted in a post that the AI arms race is driving large technology companies to borrow at record levels. Data shows that since the start of 2026, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, Oracle, and SpaceX have issued a record $182 billion in investment-grade bonds, a 1,300% jump from roughly $13 billion in the same period of 2025. These six firms account for nearly 15% of total U.S. corporate bond issuance so far this year, and contribute over 50% of the growth in this year’s corporate bond market. Meanwhile, the U.S. market has seen a record seven bond transactions worth $25 billion or more, matching the total number of such deals between 2019 and 2025. Six of these seven large bond deals came from the aforementioned six companies, with the remaining one from Salesforce. AI-related capital demand is reshaping the corporate bond market.

8 minutes ago

A whale opened a long position on SK Hynix worth $22.8 million, likely betting that its US ADRs will continue rising after tonight's market opening.

According to on-chain analyst firm Yu Jin Monitoring, half an hour ago, crypto whale "AllegraSeam" transferred 20.32 million USDC to Hyperliquid and opened a long position in SKHX (SK Hynix) worth roughly $22.8 million at a price of $1,480. The day before yesterday, another whale also opened a long position in SKHX valued at around $30 million at $1,411. The market appears to be betting that SK Hynix’s US-listed ADR will continue rising after tonight’s opening. SK Hynix’s US ADR is priced at $149, corresponding to a Korean stock price of approximately $1,490, and SKHX’s current price is near this level.

8 minutes ago

MiniMax Founder: Will No Longer Draw a Salary, Allocates 5% of Personal Company Shares for Team Incentives and Open-Source Support

MiniMax founder and CEO Yan Junjie has released an internal all-staff letter addressing recent market volatility, stressing the company’s long-term direction remains unchanged. In the letter, Yan announced that effective immediately, he will forgo all salary from the company until the day MiniMax achieves AGI. Over the next four years, he will allocate 4% of his personal shareholding in the firm to incentivize team members who have long stood by the company and co-created value. Additionally, he will set aside 1% of his shares to establish a special fund to continuously support the development of relevant open-source communities. (Jinshi)

8 minutes ago

South Korea’s KOSPI index climbed more than 4% intraday, with Samsung Electronics surging over 5%.

According to Bitget data, South Korea’s KOSPI index rose 4.52% intraday, now standing at 7596.58 points. In terms of individual stocks, SK Hynix gained 2.6% and Samsung Electronics increased by over 5%.

8 minutes ago

Whale Who Previously Shorted 16 Altcoins to Net $3.5 Million Suspected of Selling $13.69 Million Worth of ETH Again

On-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa) has detected that the Hyperliquid whale—who previously shorted 16 altcoins to pocket $3.5 million—is suspected of continuing to offload Ethereum (ETH). The address 0x410…75d08 withdrew 7,863 ETH from Spark an hour ago, worth roughly $13.69 million, then deposited all of it into Binance, likely for selling. A week prior, the same address transferred 6,860 ETH, valued at approximately $10.8 million, to a trading platform.

8 minutes ago

Public companies went on a Bitcoin shopping spree in Q2 2026 that makes their prior accumulation look like a warm-up lap. Over the quarter, publicly traded firms collectively scooped up 110,000 BTC, a figure that’s 1.8 times the total they acquired across the previous two quarters combined.

Total corporate Bitcoin holdings now exceed 1.26 million BTC, valued at roughly $79 billion. That’s more than 6% of Bitcoin’s hard-capped 21 million supply locked up in public company balance sheets.

Corporations are outpacing the miners Year-to-date through early July 2026, public companies have added a net 166,984 BTC to their reserves. During that same stretch, Bitcoin miners produced approximately 81,153 BTC.

In English: corporations are buying more than twice the amount of new Bitcoin entering existence. When a growing number of buyers compete for a shrinking pool of available coins, the float gets squeezed.

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Who’s doing the buying No surprise at the top of the leaderboard. Strategy, the firm formerly known as MicroStrategy, remains the undisputed heavyweight champion of corporate Bitcoin accumulation. The company holds approximately 843,775 to 847,000 BTC.

Interestingly, even Strategy isn’t purely in accumulation mode anymore. The company sold 3,588 BTC in late June and early July, a tiny fraction of its total stack but notable because it represents one of the few times the firm has moved coins out the door rather than in.

Behind Strategy, two names have emerged as serious contenders. Twenty One Capital holds around 43,500 BTC, while Metaplanet has built a position of roughly 43,000 BTC.

The concentration is worth noting. Strategy alone accounts for roughly two-thirds of all publicly held corporate Bitcoin. The remaining third is spread across a growing but still relatively small cohort of companies.

What this means for investors The supply-demand imbalance is the headline risk and opportunity. With corporate buyers absorbing more than double the new supply being mined, Bitcoin’s available float is shrinking in real time.

There’s a reflexivity problem worth watching. Many of these companies fund their Bitcoin purchases by issuing equity or convertible notes. That works beautifully when Bitcoin’s price is rising and investor appetite for these instruments is strong. It works considerably less well during drawdowns, when the same companies face margin pressure and potentially need to sell into weakness. Strategy’s small sale in late June could be a one-off, or it could be a preview of what happens when even the most committed holders need liquidity.

The 6% supply concentration in public company hands also introduces a new category of systemic risk. If a major holder ever faced a forced liquidation, whether from regulatory action, a corporate restructuring, or a leveraged position gone wrong, the market impact could be severe. Bitcoin has never had this much supply held by entities subject to quarterly earnings calls and SEC filings.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Bitcoin [BTC] is beginning to regain demand. This comes after weeks of persistent selling pressure weakened participation across both spot and derivatives markets.

Over the past week, the 30-day cumulative demand rebounded sharply from nearly -500,000 BTC to around -75,000 BTC. This shift signaled that risk appetite is gradually returning.

Source: CryptoQuant Notably, futures demand recovered from roughly -295,000 BTC to slightly above neutral. Despite that, spot demand remained weak near -78,000 BTC, showing long-term investors are still waiting for stronger confirmation. Moreover, that divergence suggests traders are positioning for higher prices before meaningful capital enters the spot market.

Although sentiment has clearly improved, Bitcoin’s recovery will remain vulnerable until spot accumulation strengthens, reinforcing derivatives-driven momentum with broader investor conviction.

Downside fears begin to ease Bitcoin’s options market nuances cautious spot participation, although investors are no longer pricing downside risk as aggressively compared to the previous sell-offs.

During the February and June selloffs, put implied volatility surged as traders rushed to hedge against deeper losses. July presents a different picture. In contrast, in July, as Bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $65,000, downside premiums have cooled noticeably.

Such a divergence indicates that expectations are shifting from another capitulation toward a slower bottoming process.

Source: Glassnode This shift reflects a market that has already experienced significant declines over several months. As a result, reducing the urgency for costly downside protection. Even so, investors should be cautious since calmer options pricing does not necessarily translate to renewed conviction.

Additionally, ETF participation remains inconsistent while spot accumulation has fallen behind derivative demand. Therefore, until fresh capital flows back into spot markets, improved sentiment could face challenges in generating widespread buying needed for a durable recovery.

Distribution remains a market headwind Even as downside fears continue easing, Bitcoin’s recovery is still meeting resistance from holders taking profits accumulated during the previous cycle. Long-term holder realized losses remain elevated on the 30-day Moving Average, although they have moderated from the extreme spikes recorded during the 2022 bear market.

Source: Glassnode Meanwhile, realized profit and loss data shows short-term holders continue accounting for a larger share of market activity, reflecting uncertainty among newer investors as prices stabilize.

That combination suggests supply is gradually rotating from experienced holders to fresh participants rather than disappearing altogether. Furthermore, an increase in demand for bitcoin is absorbing most of the distribution of supply.

However, until long-term holder selling slows further, Bitcoin’s recovery is likely to remain gradual instead of accelerating into a sustained bullish trend.

Final Summary Bitcoin recovery remains incomplete as spot demand continues trailing derivatives activity. BTC still faces long-term holder selling despite easing downside fears and improving market sentiment.

Decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens have held up unusually well against Bitcoin over the past month, suggesting the market may be “quietly re-rating” the sector, says crypto index fund maker Bitwise.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell about 22% in June, while Bitwise’s index tracking tokens from major DeFi protocols fell only 4% over the same period, Bitwise said in a report Thursday.

“DeFi usually swings much harder than Bitcoin, so holding up this well is unusual, and almost no one is talking about it,” it said. 

DeFi tokens have a reputation for being highly volatile during crypto market swings, as they’re the first to be sold by risk-averse traders. However, Bitwise said this is changing as traditional institutions have begun to use the protocols, which have stabilized the wider DeFi ecosystem.

“We think DeFi is quietly re-rating,” Bitwise said. “Token economics are improving, the gap between usage and token value is closing, and real institutions are building on names like Morpho and Jupiter, with Aave alone generating ~$900 million in the past year.”

“We expect DeFi’s outperformance to keep playing out in Q3, the kind of shift the market tends to notice late,” it added.

Source: Bitwise

Bitwise’s DeFi index fund weighs assets by market capitalization, and its current holdings are weighted 61% toward Hyperliquid (HYPE), the native token used by the crypto perpetuals exchange of the same name that has gained more than 160% so far this year.

The index also holds Uniswap (UNI), Ondo (ONDO) and Aave (AAVE), among others, all of which have fallen by double-digit percentages year to date.

DeFi value locked drops over 2026While HYPE has propped up the value of DeFi tokens, total value locked in DeFi has fallen nearly 40% so far this year through June, declining to just over $70 billion from roughly $115 billion in January, CryptoRank reported June 24.

The crypto data aggregator attributed the market decline to the major correction in early October, which came after the crypto market peak, when Bitcoin hit a high of more than $126,000.

However, the company said the current drawdown remains smaller than during the 2022 bear market, suggesting a more resilient DeFi market.

Bitwise says expect stablecoins, volatility if CLARITY failsIn its report, Bitwise also noted key upcoming events it expects will affect the crypto market.

It said it expects “a steady run of large firms to announce stablecoin projects” ahead of the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin-regulating bill the US made law last year that takes effect in January 2027.

Stablecoin supply has held amid the crypto market downturn, it added, and their growth will positively affect blockchains such as Ethereum and Solana this quarter as regulators finalize their rules for the GENIUS Act.

Bitwise said it also expects the next three months will be “make-or-break for the CLARITY Act,” the crypto market structure bill currently under review and negotiation in the Senate that Bitwise said has an unlikely chance of passing before the November elections.

“If it passes, we believe it likely marks this bear market’s bottom,” Bitwise said. “If it fails, expect volatility initially, then a clearing of uncertainty as the industry keeps building under a pro-crypto SEC and CFTC.”

Features: DeFi hacks shake institutional confidence as risks outpace yields

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Over 15 Banks Race to Tokenize Finance, and It Could Affect Bitcoin

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Why Is B3 Adding More Crypto Derivatives? Brazil’s B3 stock exchange has expanded its regulated crypto derivatives offering with options on bitcoin, ether, and solana futures, giving local traders and asset managers another venue to manage digital asset exposure without moving into offshore crypto markets.

The new contracts became available for trading on July 6, according to a B3 circular. The rollout includes call and put options on bitcoin futures denominated in Brazilian reais, while ether and solana futures are denominated in U.S. dollars.

The launch adds another layer to Brazil’s growing regulated crypto market structure. Rather than offering spot crypto custody or direct token settlement, B3 is building listed derivatives linked to crypto benchmarks. That approach allows institutional participants to trade price exposure, volatility, and hedging strategies through exchange-traded instruments while staying inside a regulated market environment.

The timing also matters. Brazil is already one of Latin America’s most active crypto markets, with strong demand for stablecoins, crypto investment products, and regulated trading access. By expanding futures-linked options, B3 is positioning itself as a local infrastructure provider for crypto risk management rather than leaving more advanced trading activity to offshore venues.

How Do The New Contracts Work? The options settle into the underlying futures contracts, not into bitcoin, ether, or solana themselves. B3 said the products do not involve custody, transfer, or administration of spot cryptoassets.

That distinction is central to the product design. Settlement into futures allows the exchange to offer crypto-linked exposure while avoiding the operational issues tied to holding tokens directly. It also gives brokers, asset managers, and professional traders a clearer framework for margining, clearing, and risk management.

The contracts trade independently from 9 a.m. to 6:30 p.m. local time, according to B3’s derivatives trading schedule. Exercise is automatic at expiration when the option finishes in the money, unless the holder blocks exercise.

All 3 products reference Nasdaq crypto indexes, according to the announcement. B3’s bitcoin futures contract is denominated in reais, while its ether and solana futures are denominated in U.S. dollars. That split gives bitcoin exposure a local currency structure, while ether and solana remain linked to dollar-denominated pricing.

Investor Takeaway B3’s new crypto options give Brazilian investors a regulated way to trade volatility and hedge exposure without taking custody of tokens. The structure keeps the products closer to traditional derivatives markets than offshore spot crypto trading.

What Does This Mean For Traders And Asset Managers? For traders, the main change is access to local listed options tied to major crypto futures. That makes it easier to build directional positions, hedge futures exposure, trade implied volatility, and structure more complex strategies around bitcoin, ether, and solana.

For asset managers, the products can help manage portfolio risk without relying on offshore crypto options venues. A local listed market may also reduce operational friction for firms that face internal restrictions on custody, counterparty risk, or trading outside regulated exchanges.

The automatic exercise feature also brings the products closer to standard derivatives market practice. When an option expires in the money, it is exercised into the underlying futures contract unless the holder blocks exercise. That can simplify execution for professional users, though it also requires active margin and position management around expiration.

The product design may appeal most to participants that already understand futures-based crypto exposure. Since the options settle into futures rather than tokens, users must manage the risks of the underlying futures contracts, including leverage, margin calls, basis, and currency denomination.

Why Does This Matter For Brazil’s Crypto Market? The launch extends B3’s push into regulated crypto products after earlier moves to list bitcoin options, ether and solana futures, and prepare bitcoin-linked event contracts. The exchange is building a broader toolkit around digital assets while keeping the products inside the structure of listed derivatives.

That strategy reflects a wider trend in institutional crypto adoption. Regulated venues are not only offering direct exposure to crypto prices. They are also building the instruments needed for hedging, volatility trading, and structured allocation. Options are an important part of that market because they allow investors to manage downside risk, express views on volatility, and create defined-risk positions.

Brazil’s market is especially relevant because local demand for crypto exposure has grown alongside regulatory efforts to bring digital asset activity into formal financial channels. B3’s expansion gives domestic participants more tools, but it also increases the importance of liquidity, transparent pricing, and risk controls.

The new options do not remove crypto’s underlying volatility or regulatory uncertainty. They do, however, give professional investors a more familiar way to manage that volatility inside Brazil’s exchange infrastructure. For B3, the rollout strengthens its role as the country’s main regulated gateway for crypto-linked derivatives.

¿Por qué la B3 suma más derivados cripto? La bolsa de valores brasileña B3 ha ampliado su oferta regulada de derivados cripto con opciones sobre futuros de bitcoin, ether y solana, ofreciendo a los traders locales y gestores de activos otra vía para gestionar su exposición a activos digitales sin recurrir a mercados cripto extraterritoriales.

Los nuevos contratos comenzaron a operarse el 6 de julio, según una circular de B3. El lanzamiento incluye opciones call y put sobre futuros de bitcoin denominados en reales brasileños, mientras que los futuros de ether y solana están denominados en dólares estadounidenses.

El lanzamiento añade una capa más a la creciente estructura del mercado cripto regulado de Brasil. En lugar de ofrecer custodia de cripto al contado o liquidación directa de tókenes, B3 está construyendo derivados listados vinculados a índices de referencia cripto. Este enfoque permite a los participantes institucionales operar exposición al precio, volatilidad y estrategias de cobertura mediante instrumentos cotizados en bolsa, manteniéndose dentro de un entorno de mercado regulado.

El momento también es relevante. Brasil ya es uno de los mercados cripto más activos de América Latina, con una fuerte demanda de stablecoins, productos de inversión cripto y acceso regulado al trading. Al ampliar las opciones vinculadas a futuros, B3 se posiciona como un proveedor local de infraestructura para la gestión de riesgo cripto, en lugar de dejar la actividad de trading más avanzada a plataformas extraterritoriales.

¿Cómo funcionan los nuevos contratos? Las opciones se liquidan en los contratos de futuros subyacentes, no en bitcoin, ether o solana propiamente. B3 señaló que los productos no implican custodia, transferencia ni administración de criptoactivos al contado.

Esa distinción es central en el diseño del producto. La liquidación en futuros permite a la bolsa ofrecer exposición vinculada a cripto evitando los problemas operativos asociados a la tenencia directa de tókenes. También brinda a brókers, gestores de activos y traders profesionales un marco más claro para el margen, la compensación y la gestión de riesgo.

Los contratos se negocian de forma independiente de 9:00 a 18:30, hora local, según el calendario de negociación de derivados de B3. El ejercicio es automático al vencimiento cuando la opción termina dentro del dinero (in the money), salvo que el titular bloquee el ejercicio.

Los 3 productos hacen referencia a índices cripto de Nasdaq, según el anuncio. El contrato de futuros de bitcoin de B3 está denominado en reales, mientras que sus futuros de ether y solana están denominados en dólares estadounidenses. Esa división le da a la exposición en bitcoin una estructura en moneda local, mientras que ether y solana permanecen vinculados a precios denominados en dólares.

Conclusión para el inversor Las nuevas opciones cripto de B3 dan a los inversores brasileños una forma regulada de operar volatilidad y cubrir su exposición sin tomar custodia de los tókenes. La estructura acerca los productos a los mercados de derivados tradicionales, más que al trading de cripto al contado en plataformas extraterritoriales.

¿Qué significa esto para traders y gestores de activos? Para los traders, el principal cambio es el acceso a opciones locales cotizadas vinculadas a los principales futuros cripto. Eso facilita construir posiciones direccionales, cubrir la exposición en futuros, operar con la volatilidad implícita y estructurar estrategias más complejas en torno a bitcoin, ether y solana.

Para los gestores de activos, los productos pueden ayudar a gestionar el riesgo de cartera sin depender de plataformas de opciones cripto extraterritoriales. Un mercado local cotizado también puede reducir la friccion operativa para las firmas que enfrentan restricciones internas en materia de custodia, riesgo de contraparte o trading fuera de bolsas reguladas.

La función de ejercicio automático también acerca los productos a la práctica estándar del mercado de derivados. Cuando una opción vence dentro del dinero, se ejerce hacia el contrato de futuros subyacente, salvo que el titular bloquee el ejercicio. Eso puede simplificar la ejecución para usuarios profesionales, aunque también exige una gestión activa del margen y de las posiciones en torno al vencimiento.

El diseño del producto puede resultar más atractivo para los participantes que ya comprenden la exposición cripto basada en futuros. Dado que las opciones se liquidan en futuros y no en tókenes, los usuarios deben gestionar los riesgos de los contratos de futuros subyacentes, incluidos el apalancamiento, los margin calls, la base y la denominación en divisas.

¿Por qué esto importa para el mercado cripto de Brasil? El lanzamiento extiende el impulso de B3 hacia productos cripto regulados, tras movimientos previos para listar opciones de bitcoin, futuros de ether y solana, y preparar contratos de eventos vinculados a bitcoin. La bolsa está construyendo un conjunto de herramientas más amplio en torno a los activos digitales, manteniendo los productos dentro de la estructura de los derivados cotizados.

Esa estrategia refleja una tendencia más amplia en la adopción institucional de cripto. Las plataformas reguladas no solo ofrecen exposición directa a los precios de las criptomonedas. También están construyendo los instrumentos necesarios para la cobertura, el trading de volatilidad y la asignación estructurada. Las opciones son una parte importante de ese mercado porque permiten a los inversores gestionar el riesgo a la baja, expresar opiniones sobre la volatilidad y crear posiciones de riesgo definido.

El mercado brasileño es especialmente relevante porque la demanda local de exposición cripto ha crecido junto con los esfuerzos regulatorios para llevar la actividad de activos digitales hacia canales financieros formales. La expansión de B3 brinda a los participantes locales más herramientas, pero también aumenta la importancia de la liquidez, la fijación de precios transparente y los controles de riesgo.

Las nuevas opciones no eliminan la volatilidad subyacente de las criptomonedas ni la incertidumbre regulatoria. Sin embargo, sí dan a los inversores profesionales una forma más familiar de gestionar esa volatilidad dentro de la infraestructura bursátil de Brasil. Para B3, el lanzamiento refuerza su papel como la principal puerta de entrada regulada del país para los derivados vinculados a cripto.

Bitwise Drops 2 Altcoins From Flagship Crypto ETF: Will Hyperliquid Keep Its Seat?

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Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, has launched an interactive credit model that allows investors to calculate the resilience of its debt obligations in real time. The release came just two days after the company officially confirmed the sale of 3,588 BTC worth $216 million to secure dollar liquidity and payments on preferred shares.

The publication of the simulator seems to be Michael Saylor's direct response to renewed Wall Street discussions about the risks of his business model, designed to show analysts exactly how many years the company can hold out without a Bitcoin rally. 

Digital Credit is transparent because the principal market risk factor is Bitcoin, an observable, homogeneous asset. Analysts can assess BTC-related credit risk continuously, and investors can apply their own statistical models to inform valuation and trading decisions. $STRC pic.twitter.com/6Xo63MEmeM

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) July 9, 2026 Another goal might be a demonstration that controlled monetization of reserves is part of a new systemic capital architecture, the Digital Credit Capital Framework, rather than an emergency rescue from a shortage of funds.

The math behind Strategy's 30-year dividend bufferThe baseline parameters entered into the interface clearly show the current limits of the capital structure's resilience and answer the key question: What happens if Bitcoin completely stops growing?

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A 30-year payment reserve: The key BTC Years of Dividends metric shows that even if market growth stops completely, the company's existing crypto reserves worth $52.87 billion and accumulated dollar cushion, the USD Reserve, of $2.55 billion would be enough for exactly 30 years of uninterrupted payments on dividend obligations.3.33% for perpetual breakeven: The BTC Breakeven ARR metric shows that, for stable servicing of all coupons and dividends without raising new capital, the market does not even need an aggressive rally. Bitcoin only needs to rise by an average of 3.33% per year.A twofold coverage ratio: Total obligations on convertible bonds ($6.714 billion) and preferred shares ($15.464 billion) amount to $22.178 billion. At the same time, the current asset coverage indicator, BTC Rating, stands at 2.7x, which guarantees the safety of payments to investors even in the event of a prolonged market correction. You Might Also Like

For a long time, Michael Saylor's strategy was built on uncompromising Bitcoin accumulation, but the launch of the STRC debt instrument changed the rules of the game. By July, the volume-weighted average market price of STRC shares had fallen below the $100 par value, forcing the company to raise the dividend rate to 12.00% in order to protect the market price.

Payments at such rates require a regular inflow of fiat, which is why Strategy used the BTC monetization program of up to $1.25 billion approved by its board of directors.

Instead of classic passive holding, Saylor has moved to flexible asset management. In this context, the interactive model appears designed to strip traditional agencies, such as S&P with their "junk" ratings for the company, of their monopoly on risk assessment and to clearly show investors the transparent mathematics of debt sustainability in conditions where the crypto market is not constantly growing.

July 9, 2026, 3:47 PM UTC

New Hampshire’s executive council voted down a proposal to bring the first Bitcoin-backed bond to the municipal market.

The bond sale, managed by Jefferies through private placement, failed to win approval on Wednesday from the council that would have allowed a conduit issuer to sell the bonds. The New Hampshire Business Finance Authority’s proposal to sell $100 million of taxable municipal bonds failed to pass, according to results posted on the council’s website.

Councilors expressed concern that the bonds wouldn’t deliver concrete benefits to New Hampshire and weighed if the authority should have a role in facilitating a transaction ...

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Bitcoin pushed back above $63K on Thursday, gaining 2.1% in 24 hours as falling oil prices and retreating bond yields gave risk assets some breathing room. The move came as tensions around the Iran conflict showed signs of cooling, and institutional custody provider BitGo quietly dropped a toolkit that might matter a lot more in five years than it does today.

Here’s the thing: the crypto market is still deep in “extreme fear” territory, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 22. That’s barely up from last week’s reading of 19. So while Bitcoin is bouncing, nobody is exactly popping champagne.

Oil cools, crypto warms The macro setup heading into Thursday was straightforward. Oil prices pulled back from recent highs driven by Iran-related supply fears, and bond yields followed suit. When those two variables ease up, money tends to flow back into riskier corners of the market. Crypto, being the riskiest corner of them all, benefited accordingly.

BTC’s 7-day change came in at +2.2%, suggesting the recovery wasn’t just a one-day blip but part of a slightly broader stabilization. Ethereum followed with a more modest 1.1% gain over 24 hours, hovering just below the $2K mark. Solana picked up 1.5% to trade near $78, and XRP held above $1.

None of these moves are going to make anyone’s year. But in a market defined by extreme fear, not losing ground counts as a win.

The geopolitical backdrop matters here. When conflict escalation drives oil higher, it feeds into inflation expectations, which pushes bond yields up, which makes “risk-free” returns more attractive relative to volatile assets like Bitcoin. Reverse that chain, even temporarily, and crypto gets a bid. That’s essentially what happened Thursday.

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BitGo’s quantum play While traders focused on the macro relief rally, BitGo made a move that speaks to a very different kind of threat. The institutional custody provider rolled out quantum-resistance tools designed specifically for Bitcoin wallets.

The toolkit does two things. First, it scores the quantum risk of a given wallet. Second, it identifies and helps remediate wallets with exposed public keys, which are the ones most vulnerable to a future quantum computing attack.

Look, quantum computing isn’t breaking Bitcoin’s encryption tomorrow. Or next year. Probably not even in five years. But the threat is real enough that serious institutional players are starting to prepare, and that preparation tells you something about how long-term holders are thinking about their positions.

The core vulnerability is this: Bitcoin addresses that have had their public keys exposed on the blockchain (typically because they’ve sent a transaction) could theoretically be cracked by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. Addresses that have never sent funds and only have their public key hash exposed are safer. BitGo’s tool essentially separates the former from the latter and helps institutions move funds to safer configurations.

In English: if your Bitcoin wallet has ever sent a transaction, a quantum computer could eventually figure out your private key from the public key that got broadcast. BitGo is helping big players identify which wallets have this problem and fix it before quantum hardware catches up.

It’s the crypto equivalent of upgrading your locks before burglars invent a master key. Probably premature, definitely prudent.

The fear isn’t gone Despite the price recovery, the market’s mood remains grim. An extreme fear reading of 22 means most participants are still defensive, reluctant to add risk, and watching for the next shoe to drop.

For context, the index was at 19 just a week ago, so the improvement is marginal at best. The DeFi category, which led all sectors over the past seven days, managed a grand total of 0.0% change. That’s not a typo. The best-performing category essentially went nowhere.

This kind of environment, where Bitcoin bounces on macro relief but sentiment stays frozen, tends to produce choppy, range-bound trading. Bulls can point to the fact that BTC held above key support levels. Bears can point to the Fear & Greed Index and ask why nobody seems convinced.

What this means for investors The short-term story is macro-driven and could flip on a single headline out of the Middle East. If oil prices resume their climb or bond yields spike again, Thursday’s recovery could evaporate just as quickly as it appeared. Risk-on moves built on geopolitical de-escalation are inherently fragile because geopolitics doesn’t follow a script.

The more interesting signal might be BitGo’s quantum toolkit. Institutional infrastructure providers don’t build features for fun. They build them because clients ask for them. The fact that there’s enough demand to justify a quantum-risk scoring product suggests that large holders are thinking about Bitcoin security on a decade-long time horizon, not a quarter-long one.

That kind of long-term institutional commitment tends to matter more than any single day’s price action, even if it doesn’t make for exciting charts. The firms preparing for quantum threats aren’t the ones panic-selling on oil spikes. They’re the ones quietly building positions they intend to hold through multiple market cycles.

For retail investors, the practical takeaway is simpler. The macro environment remains uncertain, sentiment is weak, and price action is being driven by external forces rather than crypto-native catalysts. A 2.1% daily move in either direction barely registers in Bitcoin’s historical volatility range. Until the Fear & Greed Index climbs out of extreme fear territory and stays there, caution is probably the right default setting.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

COINTELEGRAPH: Bitcoin traders reveal key levels as BTC price passes $63K after Trump Iran 'deal' comments

The 1,200-acre Matagorda County site was previously slated for a $7 billion HIF Global e-fuels plant backed by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott before HIF pivoted to power computing instead.

MARA Holdings said Thursday it signed a definitive agreement with HIF to acquire a powered land site of more than 1,200 acres in Matagorda County, Texas, in a post on its official X account. The site will carry up to 1 gigawatt of grid capacity by October 2027 and up to 2 gigawatts by April 2028, subject to approval from Texas grid operator ERCOT.

The deal is not an upfront cash purchase. It is structured as up to $600 million in milestone-based payments tied to regulatory approvals, land access and eventually a signed data-center tenant, according to an SEC filing MARA disclosed, as reported by The Block. MARA shares rose roughly 14% in early trading Thursday on the news, The Block reported.

HIF Global had promoted the site as the first large e-fuels plant in the United States, a roughly $7 billion project backed by Texas Governor Greg Abbott that would split water to make cleaner shipping fuel, BeInCrypto reported. HIF had already secured full permits and grid rights for about 1.8 gigawatts before the deal, and will retain a minority stake in the site once MARA signs a high-performance-computing tenant.

Doubling The Power PipelineMARA plans to develop the campus through its existing partnership with Starwood Digital Ventures, which handles design, construction and tenant sourcing. Combined with MARA's pending Long Ridge Energy gas-plant acquisition, full energization of the Texas site would push the miner's total power portfolio to roughly 4.8 gigawatts, The Block reported. MARA Chairman and CEO Fred Thiel said sites with access to reliable, scalable power will become increasingly valuable, according to the same report.

Bitcoin shows signs of bottoming, but capitulation, ETF outflows, and defensive options markets still threaten recovery.

Bitcoin’s market appears to be in the later stages of a bear market, but the signals confirming a broader turnaround have not yet emerged. On-chain data shared by Glassnode shows the asset has recovered from $57,800 to nearly $63,000 over the past week, but it remains below both the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $72,200.

This leaves the asset in a “deep value” zone.

BTC Bottoming Bitcoin has now spent about five months trading below both of these levels – one of the longest discount periods in its history. According to Glassnode, such long periods have historically provided the foundation for cyclical bottoms as investors accumulate at prices below the average cost of recent buyers and the broader active market. However, a further decline toward the Realized Price of roughly $53,000 remains possible.

The report identified long-term holders as the primary source of current selling pressure. Since early February, the share of realized value attributed to long-term holder losses has increased from 15% to 43%, which makes this cohort’s capitulation the largest contributor to downside pressure. These investors largely bought near the cycle peak and, after holding through months of losses, are increasingly selling as the downturn tests their conviction.

Glassnode said that this steady wave of distribution has prevented Bitcoin from reclaiming the upper end of its current trading range. The report added that long-term holders’ realized losses, measured on a 30-day moving average basis, recently climbed to around $280 million per day, which is the highest level since December 2022. This was the second major spike recorded during the current bear market.

Unlike the previous spike, however, this wave of capitulation has not yet begun to cool. Glassnode believes that a decline in this metric will be necessary before a credible transition back to bullish conditions can be considered.

Off-chain indicators also continue to point to weak institutional demand despite exhibiting modest improvement. The 30-day average of US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows has remained negative since mid-May. The average daily outflows declined from a peak of $193 million in early June to approximately $88.9 million.

You may also like: Peter Schiff: Bitcoiners Are In Denial About Strategy’s BTC Sale Bitcoin Is Stuck in ‘No Man’s Land’ as $63K Emerges as Major Barrier Altcoin Market Reaches Extreme Underperformance, 40% of Coins Trade Near Their ATL While the slower pace of withdrawals is viewed as a “tentative positive,” institutions are still reducing exposure overall, which means demand has yet to stabilize. ETF trading activity also remains low, as daily volume ranges between $650 million and $950 million, roughly 80% below the $4.4 billion daily peak recorded in October 2025.

According to the report, both stronger trading activity and a return to neutral or positive ETF flows would be needed to confirm renewed institutional participation.

Defensive Positioning Derivatives markets present a mixed picture. The options put/call ratio has fallen to 0.56, its lowest level this year, while perpetual futures funding rates indicate traders have cautiously rebuilt long positions after earlier de-risking. Despite this, the options market remained defensive.

“The 25-delta skew, the premium of downside protection over upside, is bid across every tenor. Every selloff since the winter has re-bid it, and late June’s spike to 24% was the most defensive the front end has been since the February selloff. Traders are still paying up to hedge each dip, even as the book leans long.”

Bitcoin also trades about 6% below the options market’s aggregated max pain level of $66,000, the price at which the greatest number of outstanding options would expire worthless and around which spot price has often gravitated as expiry approaches.

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The US dollar is having a moment. Speculative traders have piled into the greenback with a conviction not seen in over a decade, pushing aggregate net long futures positions to approximately $39.7 to $39.8 billion as of June 30, 2026.

That figure, drawn from the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report, represents the most bullish positioning on the dollar since roughly 2015-2016.

Eight weeks and counting Net long positions have increased for eight consecutive weeks, and speculative traders, including hedge funds and asset managers, have maintained net long positioning for 13 straight weeks through mid-June.

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The primary catalyst is geopolitical. Fraught dynamics between the US and Iran in the Middle East have amplified demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Resilient US economic indicators and shifting rate expectations have also contributed. Earlier in 2026, the dollar experienced some weakness, but the combination of haven demand and relatively hawkish monetary conditions has reversed that trajectory.

What the dollar’s surge means for Bitcoin Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index have exhibited a strong negative correlation of approximately -0.85 during the first half of 2026. A correlation that strong means the two assets move in nearly opposite directions almost all the time.

A stronger dollar tightens global financial conditions. Borrowing in dollar-denominated debt becomes more expensive. Emerging market currencies weaken, reducing capital available for speculative investments. Liquidity gets slowly squeezed.

What’s particularly interesting is how little attention this dollar positioning story has received in crypto media. Major digital asset outlets have barely connected the CFTC data to Bitcoin’s outlook, treating the dollar’s resurgence as a traditional finance narrative.

Traders monitoring BTC should watch the DXY closely as a leading indicator. The smart play is watching CFTC positioning updates every Friday, with data released around July 6, 2026 for the June 30 period.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $63,000 mark on Thursday, but traders fear a correction ahead of Friday’s $1.4 billion options expiry on Deribit. The concerns stem from the US government bond yield climbing toward a level that many view as a warning sign. Is the $62,000 support level at risk?

Key takeaways:

Rising US Treasury yields signal debt concerns, negatively pressuring risk assets.Balanced Bitcoin options put-to-call volumes suggest limited downside from the $62,000 level.US 10-year Treasury yield (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin ETF outflows are not a concern ahead of the Bitcoin options expiryThe 10-year Treasury yield’s approach to 4.6% signals investor anxiety over the expansion of US government debt and prospects for further monetary policy expansion to avert an economic recession. Bitcoin has felt the impact, trading sideways while the Nasdaq-100 Index sits merely 4% below its all-time high.

The AI sector's bullish momentum keeps pulling capital toward equities. Asian chipmaker SK Hynix oversubscribed IPO in the US helped push the sector higher on Thursday, led by Arm Holdings (ARM) 10% gains, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 7% rally and Micron’s 7% intraday gains.

Wednesday brought $85 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, ending a short three-day inflow run. Still, the figure does not confirm a reversal in institutional flows. More importantly, demand for Bitcoin options has stayed balanced between calls (buy) and puts (sell).

Bitcoin options put-to-call volumes ratio at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

Call options volume has outpaced put instruments over the past four days, reflecting reduced demand for downside movements. However, the upcoming weekly options expiry features an interesting setup as calls up to $62,500 total $137 million, while puts above $61,000 are at $121 million.

Deribit BTC options open interest for July 10, BTC. Source: Deribit

Bitcoin bulls would gain significant ground with a move above $63,500 by the 8:00 AM UTC expiry on Friday, boosting their advantage to $190 million. Bears hold a smaller $100 million edge below $61,000, limiting their incentive without additional catalysts.

Oil price decline could strengthen the demand for risk-on assetsA temporary truce in the Middle East could ease recession fears and shift money from fixed income into risk markets, likely pushing Bitcoin price higher. In contrast, continued strength in the AI sector drains capital from other investments while traders fear large Treasury issuance to cover growing debt.

Crude WTI oil futures (left) vs. Nasdaq 100 Index futures (right). Source: TradingView

Traders should closely monitor whether Treasury yields will subside over the next week and if an aggravated war in Iran pushes oil prices higher. But with Bitcoin put options buying remaining restrained in recent sessions, the market appears positioned to strengthen the $62,000 support level.

Bitcoin sits in a delicate spot where a successful expiry resolution above $63,500 could provide short-term relief, but sustained upward momentum would require a boost from the macro side. As long as these dynamics persist, the odds favor limited bullish momentum for Bitcoin in the near term.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

US President Donald Trump’s declaration that the ceasefire between the US and Iran had ended sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market on July 8. As renewed military tensions flared up in the Middle East, investors began turning away from riskier assets, with Bitcoin quickly losing over 2% of its value within hours.

Geopolitical unrest puts pressure on the marketDuring a NATO summit in the Turkish capital Ankara, Trump announced the termination of the ceasefire. The announcement triggered an immediate downturn not only in Bitcoin, but across the wider crypto market, as major digital assets followed Bitcoin’s lead amid a spike in geopolitical uncertainty.

While declaring that the ceasefire had ended, Donald Trump also emphasized that Washington stands ready to take additional military steps if deemed necessary.

A ceasefire, which had temporarily calmed months of escalating conflict as of June 2026, had remained in effect for about a month. The latest wave of tensions erupted after Iranian forces resumed attacks on commercial vessels navigating the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Mini glossary: The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. As a major corridor for global oil shipments, any disruption in this region tends to cause rapid price swings in both energy and financial markets.

US response and market reactionUS Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that it had carried out retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets. Known as the regional command overseeing US military operations in the Middle East, CENTCOM’s involvement and Washington’s openness to further military options combined to dampen risk appetite in the financial markets even further.

The retreat in the cryptocurrency market did not stem from any digital asset-related event directly, but rather from investors scaling back risk positions amid mounting uncertainty.

The wave of selling strengthened the trend of moving towards safer haven assets. Even though no specific crypto project, exchange, or blockchain network was directly affected by the conflict, digital assets, like other sensitive market instruments, remained under heavy selling pressure triggered by broader risk aversion.

All eyes on the Strait of Hormuz and potential sanctionsAttention in the global markets now centers on possible developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Any fresh disruptions to commercial shipping could stoke concerns about global energy supply and dramatically increase financial market volatility.

Investors are also closely monitoring the possibility of new US sanctions that could target Iran’s oil exports, as well as any moves against countries still buying Iranian crude. Additional sanctions or further military escalation are expected to weigh heavily on global markets in the near term.

With the situation on the ground continuing to evolve, the crypto market is likely to remain sensitive to news flows from the region. In periods of global instability, investors’ rapid repositioning consistently emerges as a major driver of volatility in cryptocurrencies.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Key Highlights Table of Contents

Key HighlightsCompany Acquires Massive Powered Property in Matagorda CountyMatagorda Acquisition Advances Dual-Purpose Infrastructure StrategyMarket Response Reflects Growing Infrastructure PortfolioGet 3 Free Stock Ebooks Shares of MARA climbed following announcement of strategic Texas property purchase.

Company secured 1,200-acre site with potential for 2 gigawatts of power capacity.

Development will include high-performance computing campus alongside cryptocurrency operations.

Collaboration with Starwood Digital Ventures will drive infrastructure development.

Deal could more than double company’s total power capacity portfolio.

Shares of MARA Holdings (MARA) jumped 12.15% to reach $13.48 following the company’s announcement of a significant land purchase in Texas. The transaction positions the firm to dramatically expand its power infrastructure access and advance its artificial intelligence computing ambitions. This strategic move signals the company’s continued evolution beyond its core cryptocurrency mining business.

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc., MARA

Company Acquires Massive Powered Property in Matagorda County MARA Holdings entered into a binding purchase agreement for a 1,200-acre powered facility located in Matagorda County, Texas. The property sits approximately 90 miles from Houston’s southwest region. HIF USA, the seller, will continue pursuing its alternative fuels initiatives at other locations.

According to the transaction terms, the facility could deliver 1 gigawatt of grid power availability by late 2027. Subsequently, capacity could expand to 2 gigawatts by spring 2028. This arrangement provides MARA with substantial energy resources to meet future computational requirements.

Development of the property will proceed through MARA’s existing collaboration with Starwood Digital Ventures. The facility will accommodate high-performance computing operations, adaptable computational workloads, and digital currency mining activities. Company officials indicated that prospective HPC clients have already expressed significant interest in utilizing the location.

Matagorda Acquisition Advances Dual-Purpose Infrastructure Strategy This purchase represents another step in MARA’s strategic diversification beyond conventional cryptocurrency mining. The organization now targets both blockchain network support and artificial intelligence-driven computing applications. This transition mirrors an industry-wide movement among mining companies exploring alternative revenue opportunities.

MARA anticipates construction will commence in stages starting in 2026, pending necessary governmental clearances. The firm intends to establish an extensive digital infrastructure facility on the acquired land. HIF will maintain a minor equity position following execution of a high-performance computing lease agreement with MARA.

Upon complete activation, the location could increase MARA’s aggregate power capacity by more than 100%. Total portfolio capacity is projected to approach 4.8 gigawatts. This calculation incorporates the anticipated completion of the company’s Long Ridge Energy & Power transaction.

Market Response Reflects Growing Infrastructure Portfolio The company’s stock price climbed as investors responded favorably to its widening AI infrastructure footprint. This acquisition provides MARA with another substantial energy-backed asset positioned to serve emerging computational demands. The deal reinforces the firm’s competitive standing in energy-intensive digital infrastructure sectors.

MARA has committed over $1.2 billion to Texas investments to date. Company representatives stated the Matagorda development could generate thousands of construction positions and permanent employment opportunities. The campus is also expected to contribute meaningfully to regional economic growth in coming years.

This transaction illustrates a broader industry pattern among publicly-traded cryptocurrency mining enterprises. Multiple firms are now leveraging energy infrastructure to support artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and HPC applications. MARA’s Texas purchase deepens its engagement with this transformation while maintaining its Bitcoin mining operations as a core business element.

Oliver Dale

Editor-in-Chief of Blockonomi and founder of Kooc Media, A UK-Based Online Media Company. Believer in Open-Source Software, Blockchain Technology & a Free and Fair Internet for all. His writing has been quoted by Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Investopedia, The New Yorker, Forbes, Techcrunch & More. Contact [email protected]

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

TL;DR

$560 million in daily trading volume hits Robinhood Chain as the CashCat token drives new wallet activity.Bitwise removes Polkadot and Avalanche from its 10 Crypto Index, replacing them with Stellar (XLM) and Hyperliquid.40 BTC moves from a wallet untouched since 2010, worth $2.54 million at current prices.Spot Bitcoin ETFs post a $221 million net inflow on July 9, ending a 10-day outflow streak.CPI and PPI data due July 14 to 15, followed by the Fed's July 28–29 meeting, will test Bitcoin's path toward $100,000.How the CashCat meme coin pushed Robinhood's new blockchain to $560 millionThe new Robinhood Chain blockchain, launched just a week ago, is already going through its first major hype cycle. Speculative excitement around the Cash Cat meme coin (CASHCAT) pushed daily trading volume on local DEXs to a massive $560 million, according to Dune data.

In just one day, users created almost 16,000 new tokens on the network, while the number of active wallets jumped to 200,000 — and for most of them, it was their first-ever transaction on the chain.

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The market fever was partly triggered by Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev himself. On X, he dropped a short but striking comment: "Although we built Robinhood Chain as the best network for serious assets (RWA)… it works great for meme coins too."

Cash Cat (CASHCAT) market capitalization chart, Source: DexscreenerThat was enough for the market capitalization of the network's flagship meme coin, CASHCAT, to break above $140 million at its peak. In one day, it gained more than 1,000%, and by morning its price had settled around $0.083.

This surge instantly turned a couple of early investors into millionaires. According to Lookonchain, one trader bought a batch of CASHCAT 20 days ago for just $838, then during the hype withdrew $917,600 in pure profit, while leaving another hundred thousand dollars in tokens.

But behind the beautiful screenshots lies a harsh reality. The total liquidity pool of CASHCAT is only $2.6 million, which means only a few people could actually pull real millions out of the system. Social media is already full of fake claims, such as allegations that Uniswap creator Hayden is heavily buying the token, or that Robinhood's CFO put the "cash cat" on his avatar — in reality, the description in his profile had always been there.

Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma's official X profile with Cash Cat mention, Source: XIn the end, Robinhood Chain got the perfect start for any new blockchain: wild activity and a lot of money in fees. The only question is whether anyone will stay once this "cat token" stops delivering multiples.

Hyperliquid pushes the old guard out of Bitwise's top-10 indexThe major crypto index fund, the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW), has carried out a tough portfolio cleanup — Polkadot (DOT) and Avalanche (AVAX) were completely removed. Their places were taken by Stellar (XLM) and, much more notably, the young token of decentralized exchange Hyperliquid (HYPE). 

The newcomer received a weight of about 0.95% and now trades in the same lineup as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP.

Institutions are clearly shifting priorities. Instead of promise-based blockchains, they are choosing projects that generate real revenue right now. Hyperliquid posted massive numbers in the first half of 2026: $1.34 trillion in trading volume and $320 million in net revenue. 

The HYPE token itself has gained 165% since January. On top of that, the platform runs the HIP-3 upgrade, under which 99% of fees go toward token buybacks and burns. 

Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF performance, Source: BitwiseFor large players, this looks like a classic and straightforward stock buyback.

The index urgently needed fresh blood. BITW has been sliding for almost a year: in September 2025, it peaked at $78.74, by April it had fallen to $44.92, and now it trades around $41.01. One positive point is that the fund remains highly stable, with its spread on NYSE Arca staying within 0.2%, meaning there are no liquidity problems.

For Bitwise, this is a logical move. In May, it had already launched a separate spot ETF on Hyperliquid, beating Grayscale and VanEck. Now HYPE has officially secured its status as a new "blue chip".

A Bitcoin investor from the Satoshi era wakes up for a seven222-digit profitA few hours ago, an ancient wallet woke up on the blockchain when an unknown miner fully transferred 40 BTC, worth about $2.54 million, after leaving them untouched since August 3, 2010, according to on-chain data. This is the deep "Satoshi era" — the time when Bitcoin's creator was still online and coins were mined on ordinary home CPUs.

The main point of this news is pure mathematics. In 2010, Bitcoin was worth cents, so the starting price of this wallet's position is listed by analysts as roughly $0. After almost 16 years of waiting, the owner's net profit reached +105,742,020%. At the same time, they paid a tiny network fee to move millions of dollars in block 957220 — just 2,210 satoshis, or about 10 sat/vB.

Satoshi-era whale "waking up" with 40 BTC for the first time since August 2010, Source: Arkham The event prompted the crypto community on X to debate once again how many "lost" bitcoins really exist. Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn summarized the awakening briefly: "'Lost coins' are more myth than you think."

On-chain data shows that the wallet had previously received a "dusting attack" marked as Salomon Client Dusted, in which tiny transactions are sent in an attempt to deanonymize an address.

The movement of 40 BTC does not mean they will be dumped into an exchange order book right now. Most often, ancient whales wake up for basic security reasons: to move funds from old legacy addresses to newer and better-protected formats.

Crypto market outlook: ETF reversal and volume hold BTC ahead of the inflation testBuyers successfully defended a strong historical trading zone above local support after 10 days of outflows from spot ETFs. The strength of this technical structure will be determined by the U.S. CPI/PPI reports and the Fed meeting, which will either confirm the market’s readiness for a move toward $100,000 or trigger a liquidation cascade toward $54,000.

Key checkpoints:

The end of ETF capitulation and a reversal into inflows: After 10 days of aggressive capital outflows from spot BTC ETFs totaling $2.73 billion, the funds recorded a net inflow of $221 million on July 9. The reversal in the institutional trend signals that open-market selling pressure is being exhausted.Leverage wipeout and Bitwise forecasts: The current market drawdown has officially been described by Bitwise experts as a classic leverage squeeze. They note the formation of a local bottom and confirm a Bitcoin price target of $100,000 by year-end, supported by the cleanup of the derivatives market.Solana dominates the RWA race: The Solana network set a historic record by attracting $1 billion in net capital into the real-world asset tokenization sector in just 30 days. That is more than three times the result of its closest competitor, BNB Chain, which attracted only $292 million over the same period.The nearest inflation trigger, CPI/PPI, arrives on July 14–15: The publication of the U.S. Consumer Price Index will be the first hard filter for risk assets. If the report shows inflation cooling below consensus expectations, it could trigger a major short squeeze in BTC. Hot data, by contrast, would strengthen sellers.The Fed interest rate decision comes on July 28–29: The final FOMC meeting of the month will close July and define the monetary vector for the second half of the year. Any hints of policy easing, or a pivot, would give Bitcoin a powerful impulse to break out of its current consolidation zone toward new highs. You Might Also Like

Cryptocurrency prices are broadly rebounding on Thursday, following a dominant sell-off largely attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Bitcoin (BTC) has risen and trades near $63,000, while Ethereum (ETH) pares losses around $1,750 as bulls aim for a short-term breakout above $1,800.

Meanwhile, despite Ripple’s (XRP) broader bearish outlook, the remittance token trades near $1.10 resistance, up from its short-term support range between $1.05 and $1.07.

Crypto sentiment dampens amid mounting geopolitical tensionsThe United States (US) and Iran continued to launch attacks at each other for the second consecutive day on Thursday, amid mounting pressure on the fragile ceasefire between the two countries, according to a CNN report.

The US military said it hit 90 targets along the Iranian coast overnight. In retaliation, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reported that they launched attacks on US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

US President Donald Trump has issued a warning that attacks could “get much worse” if Iran continues to strike ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. The CNN report added that an Iranian top negotiator said that the strait “will only open with ‘Iranian arrangements,’ not American threats.”

Sentiment in the broader crypto market remains constrained, as wars rarely favor risk assets. The Fear & Greed Index is embedded in the Extreme Fear territory at 22 on Thursday, up only marginally from 20 the day before. This indicates that risk appetite is on the back foot, with investors preferring to stay on the sidelines until geopolitical tensions stabilize. Therefore, recoveries are unlikely to make notable progress in the short term.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: AlternativePrice analysis: Bitcoin rebounds but struggles to build momentumBitcoin retains a capped tone as it holds well beneath the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Still, the recent reclaim of the downward resistance trendline, whose break area now comes in near $58,689, suggests bears are losing some immediate control.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just below the midline and a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram together hint that downside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.

BTC/USDT daily chartInitial resistance is aligned with the 50-day EMA at around $65,452, followed by the 100-day EMA at approximately $69,089, with the 200-day EMA near $75,193 forming a more strategic barrier that would need to be overcome to revive a broader bullish trend.

On the downside, the first meaningful cushion is seen around the descending resistance line, now acting as support near $58,689. A sustained drop back through this zone would re-open room for a deeper corrective phase toward the psychological $60,000 level, while holding above it keeps scope for further consolidation beneath the overhead EMA cluster.

Altcoins technical outlook: Ethereum and XRP hold key support levelsEthereum sits above $1,700 while still capped beneath a dense layer of moving averages, keeping the near-term bias bearish despite improving momentum. Still, the MACD indicator stays in positive territory with the line above the signal and a constructive histogram, while the RSI hovers just above 50, hinting at steady but not aggressive buying interest.

ETH/USDT daily chartImmediate resistance lies at the 50-day EMA near $1,801, which is the first hurdle bulls must reclaim to extend the recovery. Above that, the 100-day EMA around $1,960 acts as a subsequent barrier, followed by the more significant 200-day EMA close to $2,243 that defines the broader bearish structure. Although there are no nearby technical supports on the daily chart, psychological and prior price lows at $1,700, $1,600 and $1,500 would serve as interim floors. A daily close above the 50-day EMA would be the first signal that selling pressure is starting to ease.

On the other hand, XRP maintains a bearish near-term tone with the spot price well beneath the 50-day, 100-day and the 200-day EMAs. However, the recent rebound from oversold territory is modest, with the RSI hovering in the mid-40s, suggesting only a mild recovery in momentum, while the Parabolic SAR at $1.03 sits below spot and hints at a still-intact but fragile attempt to stabilize after the latest decline.

XRP/USDT daily chartInitial resistance is seen at the descending trendline area near $1.14, followed by the 50-day EMA around $1.17. A daily close above these levels would be needed to ease downside pressure and open the way toward the 100-day EMA at $1.28 and the more distant 200-day EMA near $1.49.

Looking down, the Parabolic SAR at $1.03 marks the first notable layer of support. A break below this level would likely reinstate stronger selling pressure and expose the prior lows on the chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.

Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.

Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.

Strip Bitcoin and Ethereum out of the crypto market and what remains has shed almost a quarter of its value in the first half of 2026, falling to $666 billion while liquidity retreats into a handful of survivors. This is not a crash; crashes end. It is something slower and stranger: a depression in the long tail of crypto, with its own causes, its own refugees, and its own short list of assets that refuse to participate.

Summary

The ex-Bitcoin and ex-Ethereum crypto market lost nearly 23% in the first half of 2026. Liquidity is retreating from the long tail into Bitcoin, stablecoins, and a few assets with stronger revenue mechanisms. The current altcoin downturn looks more like a slow structural depression than a fast liquidation crash. Token supply glut, ETF-driven institutional access, and the rise of perpetual trading have weakened broad altcoin demand. The main survivors are tokens with real fee flows, buybacks, or utility that does not depend purely on retail speculation. The number that best describes crypto in mid-2026 is not Bitcoin’s price. It is this one: the total market capitalization of every cryptocurrency except Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 22.84% in the first half of the year, down to $666.58 billion as of July 2. Bitcoin, for all its drama, a 21-month low of $58,188 in late June, a bounce back above $62,000, trades within a wide band it has occupied before. The long tail is somewhere it has not been in years: bleeding steadily, month after month, with no single catastrophic day to blame and no capitulation candle to mark a bottom.

The individual charts are grim in a way indexes flatten. Ethereum, the second pillar, just closed three consecutive red quarters for the first time in its history, down 28% in the second quarter alone to trade near $1,740, roughly 65% below its August 2025 peak. Solana sits in the high $70s to low $80s. Worldcoin fell 80% over seven months; Pi Network printed all-time lows 96% below its peak; MicroStrategy’s stock, the market’s favorite leveraged proxy, was the worst performer in the entire Nasdaq-100 last year and trades 85% below its 2024 high. The Fear and Greed Index touched 12 this month, readings last seen at the bottom of the previous cycle, and sentiment surveys read like obituaries.

And yet, scattered across the wreckage, a short list of assets is behaving as if none of this is happening: a perp exchange token near all-time highs, a lending token up 40% in a month on a buyback, a supposedly dead layer-1 up 31% in a week. The pattern of who is exempt is as informative as the destruction itself. This piece maps the altcoin depression properly: how the damage is distributed, the three structural forces that caused it and distinguish it from an ordinary bear market, the anatomy of the exceptions, the honest bull and bear cases for what comes next, and the historical precedents that both camps are quoting at each other.

The shape of the damage

Start with what the aggregate number hides. A 23% half-year decline in the ex-BTC-ETH market sounds survivable until it is decomposed, because the aggregate is propped up by its largest and most defensible members, stablecoins, exchange tokens, the top handful of layer-1s, which means the decline in the actual long tail is far deeper. Move down the capitalization table and the drawdowns compound: mid-caps routinely 60-80% below their 2025 highs, the memecoin complex down by more, and the sub-$100 million tier functionally illiquid, with tokens drifting on a few thousand dollars of daily volume. The market has not fallen uniformly; it has hollowed out from the bottom.

The flows data explains the mechanism. Capital is not so much leaving crypto as retreating inward along the risk curve: into Bitcoin, into stablecoins, whose aggregate supply has kept growing through the drawdown, and into a few narrative fortresses. Bitcoin dominance has ground higher all year, the ETF complex institutionalized a version of crypto exposure that simply does not include the long tail, and the marginal retail buyer, the historical engine of altcoin seasons, is conspicuously absent, with new-wallet and app-download metrics at multi-year lows. When markets are healthy, liquidity spreads outward toward risk; when they are frightened, it retreats toward quality and exits through the same narrow doors it entered. The first half of 2026 has been eighteen consecutive weeks of the second pattern.

Two aggravating events bracketed the half. The macro turn, a hot inflation print, Bank of America forecasting three rate hikes into 2026’s back half, and gold and AI equities absorbing the speculative appetite crypto once monopolized, reset the discount rate on every long-duration asset, and nothing has longer duration than a token whose cash flows are hypothetical. And the ETF reversal removed the market’s newest demand engine precisely when it was needed: after absorbing supply for eighteen months, spot Bitcoin funds bled $4.51 billion in June alone, their worst month on record, roughly $7 billion across May and June, converting the structure that had validated the asset class into a source of daily sell pressure and headline gloom that the long tail, which never even had ETFs, absorbed by proxy.

A tour of the casualty list Abstractions need faces, and the depression’s casualty list is best understood as concentric rings around the majors.

The first ring is the large-caps that were supposed to be safe. Ethereum’s three consecutive red quarters, the first such streak in its existence, ending with a 28% second-quarter loss, did more damage to the market’s psyche than any memecoin implosion, because ETH was the institutional asset, the one with ETFs, staking yield, and a corporate buyer base, and it fell 65% from its peak anyway. Solana, the cycle’s performance champion, trades in the high $70s, its ecosystem activity, notably resilient, decoupled from its token price in exactly the way bulls once promised could not happen. XRP holds near $1.10 with the most institutionally credentialed story in the sector and a chart that ignores it.

The second ring is the narrative tokens, and here the numbers turn brutal: Worldcoin down 80% across seven months, Pi Network at all-time lows 96% below peak, the two of them jointly holding the most commercially promising identity thesis in crypto and jointly demonstrating that theses without token mechanisms no longer receive the benefit of the doubt. The AI-agent complex, the restaking complex, the modular complex, each of 2024-25’s manufactured metas has round-tripped, their tokens down 70-90% while, in several cases, their underlying usage grew, the market’s new discipline applied without sentiment.

The third ring is the equity shadow market, where the depression is arguably deepest: MicroStrategy 85% off its high and the treasury-company complex trading at or below the value of its own coins, the crypto IPO class down 42-89% with its pipeline frozen, and the mining sector repricing around AI-datacenter pivots because coin economics alone no longer support the multiples. When the leveraged wrappers, corporate, listed, and structured, all compress toward or below net asset value simultaneously, the market is making a single statement across every instrument: it will pay for crypto’s contents, and it will no longer pay a premium for containers.

And beneath all three rings lies the true dead zone, the thousands of sub-$100 million tokens where the depression is not a price level but a liquidity condition: order books measured in thousands of dollars, market-making contracts lapsing, volumes that round to zero. No index captures this stratum because indexes weight by capitalization, but it is where most tokens actually live, and its condition is the honest answer to what the altcoin market is in mid-2026: not cheap, not expensive, but in the majority of cases simply unpriced, waiting for either a buyer or a delisting.

Why this is a depression and not a crash

Crypto has crashed many times, and this is not what those looked like. Crashes are violent, leveraged, and fast: a cascade, a weekend of liquidations, a V-shaped aftermath. The 2026 altcoin market is experiencing something with different physics, a slow structural repricing driven by three forces that do not resolve with a bounce.

The first is terminal supply glut. The token-creation machinery built in 2024-25, led by Pump.fun’s million-plus launches but including every launchpad, points program, and airdrop meta, produced assets far faster than the market produced holders, and the professionalized unlock calendar keeps delivering supply into weakness: more than $776 million of scheduled unlocks this week alone, with the sector’s largest single cliff landing Saturday. Every project financed in the 2021 and 2024 vintages is now vesting into a market with no marginal buyer, which functions as a standing tax on the entire asset class. Previous altcoin winters ended when new demand met fixed supply; this one must end against supply that grows on a schedule.

The second is the rerouting of institutional access. The ETF era was supposed to legitimize crypto broadly; what it actually did was create a compliance-approved lane for exactly two assets, soon a handful more, and drain the legitimacy premium from everything outside the lane. An allocator who wants crypto exposure in 2026 buys the funds; the reflexive spillover into altcoins that characterized retail-driven cycles has no institutional equivalent, because no pension committee rotates winnings into mid-cap layer-1s. The long tail has been structurally decoupled from the asset class’s own adoption story, and the decoupling is visible in every chart pair: Bitcoin flat on the year at this writing, the ex-majors index down by a quarter.

The third is the migration of the speculative economy itself. The activity that once expressed itself as altcoin buying now expresses itself as perpetual-futures trading, where the same directional appetite generates volume and fees without anyone holding a token overnight, the instrument having become the market’s true center of gravity. Decentralized perp venues’ share of open interest has nearly quadrupled year over year to 13.5%, volumes concentrate in venues rather than assets, and the professionalization is self-reinforcing: why own a token’s drawdown risk when its volatility can be rented by the hour? The long tail’s former buyers did not leave the casino; they moved from owning the chips to trading the table.

The stablecoin paradox and the macro vise Two forces frame the depression from outside, and both are widely misread.The first is the stablecoin paradox: through six months of risk-asset destruction, aggregate stablecoin supply grew, and it now stands as one of the largest pools of capital inside the crypto perimeter. Bulls read this as dry powder, an army of dollars parked on-chain awaiting redeployment, and the reading has a real mechanism behind it, since capital that intended to exit crypto entirely would have redeemed to banks instead of rotating to Tether and Circle. Bears read the same data as infrastructure, not intent: stablecoins grew because they became payment rails, collateral, and settlement instruments for uses that have nothing to do with buying altcoins, the yield-bearing plumbing of a parallel dollar system, and mistaking plumbing for a bid is how every failed bottom call of the past year was constructed. Both readings are partially right, which is the paradox: the money is there, and nothing about its presence obligates it to arrive.

The second frame is the macro vise, and it deserves respect as a cause rather than an excuse. The asset class that grew up entirely inside a low-rate world is now pricing Bank of America’s projection of three hikes into late 2026, December hike odds above a third on CME’s tracker, and a Federal Reserve meeting on July 29 that markets treat as a live risk event. Long-duration speculative assets reprice first and hardest under tightening, and the long tail of crypto is the longest-duration asset class ever invented. Layer onto that the attention competition, AI equities absorbing the thematic capital and the narrative oxygen that altcoins monopolized in prior cycles, and gold absorbing the debasement trade, and the depression acquires its external half: even a structurally healthy altcoin market would be fighting the tape, and this one is not structurally healthy. The Fear and Greed Index at 12 measures the collision of the internal and external stories, and its historical record, extreme readings preceding reversals, is the single most cited statistic in every bull’s arsenal, cited, as bears note, at 20 as well, and at 15, all the way down.

The depression also has a geography worth noting: it is unevenly distributed across chains as well as capitalizations. Solana’s application economy has held activity remarkably well even as SOL fell, Ethereum’s layer-2 complex has kept throughput growing while its tokens bled, and several ecosystems have effectively bifurcated into functioning networks with failing tokens, the clearest evidence yet that usage and token value have decoupled at the base layer too. The decoupling reads bearish today and cuts ambiguous tomorrow: networks that stay busy through a depression retain the raw material, users, developers, fee flows, from which mechanisms can later be built, while quiet chains with quiet tokens have neither.

The exceptions, and what they share Against that backdrop, the survivors form a pattern too consistent to be luck, and the pattern is cash flow with a mechanism attaching it to the token.

Hyperliquid is the archetype: a perp exchange near all-time highs in a bleeding market, because 97% of its enormous fee revenue mechanically buys its token every block, a structural bid this publication dissected in May. Aave rallied roughly 40% in a month after switching on fee-funded buybacks. The pattern extends to venues, launchpads, and protocols whose revenue is real and whose tokenomics route it to holders, and it conspicuously excludes projects with identical revenue and no routing: the market has stopped paying for adoption stories and started paying, narrowly and skeptically, for distributions. Call it crypto’s dividend repricing; in a depression, only the assets that pay you to hold them get held.

The second class of exceptions is idiosyncratic reversal from the dead zone, Cardano’s 31% weekly bounce from multi-year lows being the current specimen, and these are better read as the volatility of abandonment than as recoveries: when a major asset’s holder base has been reduced to conviction and neglect, small demand produces large moves in both directions. The third class is the RWA-and-infrastructure complex, tokenized Treasuries growing straight through the drawdown and the perp venues annexing equities and commodities, which is not altcoin strength at all but the market routing around altcoins entirely, building things institutions want on rails the long tail happens to share, proof-of-human networks being the cautionary counter-example of vast userbases that never found the mechanism.

The exceptions also share a negative property worth stating: none of them is a bet on the altcoin market recovering. Hyperliquid’s buyback runs on trading volume that exists in every market weather; Aave’s fee stream runs on lending demand that persists through drawdowns; the RWA complex runs on institutional needs that have nothing to do with retail speculation. The survivors are, almost by definition, the assets that found a customer other than the crypto cycle itself, which inverts the sector’s old logic completely. In previous cycles, the long tail was leveraged exposure to crypto’s growth, the beta on the beta; in this one, the only long-tail assets working are the ones that de-correlated from that growth entirely. The depression, seen through the survivors, is not punishing altcoins for being risky. It is punishing them for being redundant, for offering exposure to an asset class that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the ETFs now deliver with less risk, and rewarding, narrowly, whatever offers something else. That is a harsher filter than any bear market, because bear markets end, and redundancy does not.

The bear case, the bull case, and the precedents The bear case says this is not a cycle but a verdict. The long tail was an artifact of zero rates, retail mania, and the absence of regulated alternatives; all three conditions are gone, the supply overhang is permanent, and the correct comparison is not crypto 2018 but small-cap altcoins after 2018, thousands of which never recovered because nothing required them to. On this reading, the 23% half is not a drawdown to be recovered but a repricing toward a world where perhaps a few dozen tokens have durable claims on value and the rest converge, slowly, on their terminal worth. The absence of capitulation is itself the tell: markets that cannot crash cannot bottom.

The bull case answers with the same history read differently. Every previous altcoin winter, 2015, 2018-19, 2022, featured identical obituaries, identical dominance grind, identical proclamations that this time the long tail was structurally dead, and each resolved when a demand catalyst met a market positioned exactly like this one: Fear and Greed at cycle-bottom readings, funding negative, sentiment surveys unanimous, and the sellable supply, per the flows data, increasingly transferred from weak hands to strong. The catalysts are even legible in advance: the CLARITY Act’s resolution would extend regulated access beyond the ETF duopoly, three specific fights currently deciding it; a Fed pivot would reprice duration assets in unison; and the halving-cycle clock that bulls treat as scripture points to exactly this phase, maximum despair, preceding rotation. The 23% number, on this reading, is what the bottom of an accumulation phase looks like from inside it.

The honest synthesis is narrower than either slogan. Both camps are describing real mechanisms; the question is which applies to which stratum. The structural forces, supply glut, institutional rerouting, speculation’s migration to perps, are genuine and will not reverse with sentiment, which argues the bear case is right about the median token. The positioning extremes, the survivor pattern, and the catalyst calendar are equally genuine, which argues the bull case is right about the market’s investable core. A depression, unlike a crash, does not end for everyone at once: it ends first for the assets with cash flow and mechanisms, later for the assets with users and stories, and never for the rest. The 23% figure will eventually be revised by a recovery; how much of the long tail participates in that revision is the actual bet, and the first half of 2026 has been the market showing, asset by asset, exactly how it intends to grade it.

A word, finally, on how to actually navigate a depression, because the historical playbook differs from the crash playbook most participants trained on. Crashes reward buying panic and selling relief; depressions reward selection and patience, and punish both panic-buying and generalized bottom-fishing, since the defining feature of the regime is that most of what looks cheap is cheap for a reason and will get cheaper or simply stay dead. The discipline the survivors’ pattern suggests is uncomfortable but legible: hold the market’s investable core to whatever extent one holds the asset class at all; demand a mechanism, revenue routed to holders, structural buybacks, genuine fee claims, before treating any long-tail position as investment rather than trade; treat narrative without mechanism as rental property, entered and exited with the attention cycle; and respect the unlock calendar as a standing map of scheduled supply, because in a market without a marginal buyer, the vesting schedule is the price forecast. None of this is exciting, which is rather the point: depressions transfer wealth from participants who need excitement to participants who can do without it.

The last observation belongs to the long view. Crypto has now run this experiment enough times for the shape to be familiar: a technology wave mints an asset class, the asset class overproduces claims on the future, the claims deflate for years while the technology quietly compounds, and the next wave is built by whoever kept working through the deflation. The 2026 altcoin depression is that middle phase executing on schedule, and its most reliable historical property is also its least appreciated: the assets that lead the next cycle are rarely the ones that led the last, and are frequently being built, unlisted and unpriced, during exactly this kind of silence. The $666 billion question is not when the long tail recovers; it is which fraction of the current long tail has anything to do with what recovers, and the honest answer, on every precedent available, is: less than its holders hope, and more than its obituaries allow.

For the record, the numbers to watch from here are few and public: the ex-majors market capitalization itself, whose trend break above the H1 downchannel would be the first structural all-clear; Bitcoin dominance, whose rollover has preceded every genuine altcoin rotation on record; the weekly unlock calendar against long-tail volumes, the supply-demand scissors in one glance; and the count of tokens with live buyback or fee-distribution mechanisms, the survivor class’s census, which grows every month and quietly defines what the next cycle’s investable universe will look like. Depressions end without announcements. They end in data series, and these four will carry the announcement when it comes.

However it resolves, the first half of 2026 has already earned its place in the asset class’s institutional memory, the six months in which the market stopped grading crypto on its future and started grading it, token by token, on its books.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset markets are volatile and you can lose your entire investment. Figures are current as of July 9, 2026, and may change. Always do your own research.