Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Bitcoin rose above $64,000 following weaker-than-expected US CPI and PPI data. However, further gains are limited due to simultaneous selling by both long-term and short-term investors.

While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins are also experiencing gains, noteworthy statements have come from the US banking giant Morgan Stanley.

At this point, a Morgan Stanley analyst compared Solana to Ethereum, the largest altcoin.

And here, SOL has historically been highlighted as a better diversification tool than ETH.

Speaking to Coindesk, Morgan Stanley investment strategist Denny Galindo argued that Solana has historically been a superior diversification asset compared to Ethereum.

Galindo notes that with the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, followed by Ethereum and Solana ETFs, the question of which digital assets investors should include in their portfolios alongside Bitcoin has come to the forefront.

Galindo also stated that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and ETH is 0.78 until April 2026, while the correlation between Bitcoin and SOL is 0.72, explaining that the BTC-SOL correlation is lower.

According to the analyst, this suggests that Solana is slightly less likely to move in the same direction as Bitcoin. The lower correlation indicates a higher probability of Solana moving independently of Bitcoin, and therefore contributing more to portfolio diversification.

The analyst also notes that Solana’s correlation with the S&P 500 is slightly lower compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Based on these historical correlations, Galindo concluded that SOL could be a better diversification asset than ETH. However, the analyst pointed out that Solana has higher price volatility than Ethereum, and investors should consider this risk factor when evaluating the diversification advantage.

*This is not investment advice.

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TL;DR

The US Justice Department transferred 54.89 billion SHIB seized in the FTX case after the tokens' value fell from $1.55 million to approximately $235,500, representing an 85% decline.Binance founder Changpeng Zhao argued that AI can increase productivity but cannot protect purchasing power like Bitcoin's fixed supply. BTC recovered above $65,000 as US inflation pressures eased.XRP wallets holding at least 1 million tokens accumulated another 70 million XRP, worth approximately $77 million, as buyers defended support near $1.08 and resistance remained around $1.14.US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $108 million in daily inflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT with $80.82 million, while BTC's $65,000 resistance, Ethereum's recovery toward $2,000, and the CLARITY Act remained the main market catalysts.FTX paradox: US Justice Department retained just 15% of the dollar value of seized Shiba InuLarge-scale activity across US government wallets has exposed the specifics of state custody of volatile digital assets. Over the past several days, US agencies have moved more than $338 million in confiscated cryptocurrency, according to Arkham on-chain data.

Most of the funds, including 3,940 BTC and 40,000 ETH, were sent to Coinbase Prime. However, the market's attention was drawn to a much smaller but more revealing transfer involving Shiba Inu (SHIB) tokens.

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The transaction involved a pool of 54.89 billion SHIB tokens seized by officials during the investigation into the collapse of the FTX exchange and Alameda Research. The changing value of these confiscated assets clearly illustrates the impact of prolonged legal proceedings on high-risk assets:

Last year, this volume of tokens was valued at $1.55 million.On July 15, the Justice Department completely emptied the "FTX Alameda Seized Funds" address, transferring the same tokens to a new wallet. At the time of the transaction, their value had fallen to just $235,500.US Government history of transactions with Shiba Inu (SHIB) coin seized from FTX, Source: ArkhamAs a result of market corrections, the government retained only 15% of the position's former dollar value. According to available information, this volume of SHIB is not intended for sale on the open market. The US government will continue holding the assets for subsequent settlements with FTX creditors.

For affected exchange customers, this creates a precedent in which the repayment procedure involves distributing the original tokens, although their actual purchasing power declined by 85% during the legal proceedings. The transactions followed the agencies' standard practice of conducting $10 test transfers and also involved small balances of WBTC, COMP, and MANA.

Why the Binance founder believes AI is useless against inflation, unlike BitcoinWhile the technology sector remains focused on the capabilities of neural networks, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, known as CZ, has brought investors back to a harsh economic reality. Artificial intelligence can radically increase business productivity, but it is technologically incapable of protecting personal capital from depreciation. 

According to CZ, this role still belongs exclusively to Bitcoin because its issuance is strictly limited at the code level.

The position of the Binance founder was effectively supported from the perspective of traditional institutional finance by BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. In his assessment, following a major reduction in leverage, the crypto market has cleared out excessive speculative positions and become significantly more resilient.

AI is great, but it does not protect you against inflation.

Bitcoin does.

— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) July 16, 2026 The industry leaders' statements came against the backdrop of fresh US macroeconomic data. The latest CPI report showed that US consumer inflation had declined to 3.5%, while the Producer Price Index surprised the market by falling 0.3%.

The market immediately responded to the easing of inflationary pressure. Bitcoin began a confident recovery, broke through local resistance, and consolidated above the psychologically important $65,000 level.

Large investors bought 70 million XRP as the price stabilized near $1.10The largest XRP holders have intensified their purchases. According to fresh on-chain data from Santiment cited by Ali Martinez, wallets holding at least 1 million XRP added another 70 million tokens over the past week. At the current market price, the investment is worth approximately $77 million.

The purchases were made gradually between July 9 and July 15, increasing the total holdings of these large investors to 3.83 billion XRP. This group of large market participants now controls an impressive 74% of the token's total circulating supply.

From a technical perspective, the chart shows a classic accumulation period. XRP remains trapped within a downward trend, with the exponential moving average near $1.14 acting as the key barrier and resistance level.

XRP price chart on a daily timeframe with fresh report from Ali Martinez, Source: TradingViewLarge investors are using the current consolidation near $1.10 to methodically increase their positions at a relatively stable price without causing sharp market fluctuations.

At the same time, buyers have formed a strong support zone below the current price, with the $1.08 level actively defended by large orders. The RSI momentum indicator also points to a potential recovery as it begins turning upward from oversold territory.

Meanwhile, tokens continue to flow from trading platforms to cold wallets, while the total number of active addresses on the XRP Ledger has exceeded 8 million.

Crypto market outlook: AI payments, the Senate, and a new Bitcoin cycleThe cryptocurrency market is showing clear signs of forming a local bottom in mid-July 2026. The industry is currently caught between renewed demand for Bitcoin ETFs, expectations of key regulatory decisions in the US Senate, and the expansion of stablecoins into the real economy.

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF net inflow in US over the last 30 days, Source: SoSoValueBitcoin is holding the strategic $64,000–$65,000 range, laying the foundation for a potential short squeeze.

Key checkpoints:

ETFs return to the market: After an extended period of selling pressure, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net daily inflows of $108 million. BlackRock's IBIT fund led the recovery, attracting $80.82 million on its own and confirming institutional interest at current price levels.Bitcoin holds its position: BTC has consolidated above an important liquidity zone near $64,000. A breakout and sustained move above the $65,000 resistance level would open a direct path toward testing the long-term barrier near $67,000. At the same time, a strong volume shelf at $57,511 remains the main line of defense for holders.US legislative trigger: Investors are focused on Washington, where the House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on July 17. Senator Cynthia Lummis confirmed that Clarity Act, which is critically important for the regulation of innovation and digital assets, is expected to be brought to a Senate vote during the week beginning July 20.Ethereum shows strength: ETH staged a dynamic recovery from a three-week low of $1,630, rising into the $1,910–$1,918 range. Sellers are capitulating, but buyers must hold the intermediate support level at $1,850 to maintain momentum toward the psychological target of $2,000.Real-world adoption and stablecoin expansion: The crypto market's infrastructure foundation continues to strengthen as Visa and Artemis have officially identified stablecoins as the best payment solution for microtransactions within AI ecosystems. At the same time, Tether invested $20 million in Latin American fintech giant Ualá, valued at $3.2 billion, expanding access to digital dollars for 11 million users. You Might Also Like

The argument over Bitcoin vs. artificial intelligence with regards to greater returns is building steam in financial markets. Now, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has joined the discussion. He provided a simple take on the debate as investors compare the two growth sectors as Binance also looks to adopt AI technology.

Binance’s CZ Offers Take On Bitcoin vs. AI Debate CZ posted on the social media platform X, saying, “AI is great, but it does not protect you against inflation. Bitcoin does.” His comments were made as top Wall Street companies offered opposing views on where capital might go during the rest of 2026.

However, AI firms have drawn in huge capital inflows with experts hinting at another $700 billion surge incoming. Still Bitcoin’s defenders have been advocating for better macroeconomic conditions that may benefit the world’s largest digital currency, the debate has been heating up.

AI is great, but it does not protect you against inflation.

Bitcoin does.

— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) July 16, 2026

Nonetheless, since Binance has also resorted to AI technology, not everyone is convinced with what CZ just said. Also, other industry experts have different opinion on the ongoing Bitcoin vs. AI conflict.

BlackRock Sees Bitcoin Benefiting From Fiscal Risks The digital assets team head at BlackRock, Robert Mitchnick, thinks the focus has been drawn away from Bitcoin. For the moment, it seems to have fallen into the back seat as spot BTC ETFs recorded humongous outflows lately. That could change, he said, as concerns about the U.S. government borrowing become more prominent.

While Bitcoin has struggled to reach any consensus on prices these days, that may change as concerns continue to grow about the increasing deficit, and the prospect of currency debasement, said Mitchnick. He added: “And the more fear there is over the borrowing level and the risk of money printing, that is ultimately the most important, I think fundamental driver ahead.”

For context, Bitcoin price was recently hovering around the level $65,000 recovering from earlier weakness. Nonetheless, BTC is still far from the record levels seen in October 2025, when it hit over $126,000, as BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF experienced significant inflows.

JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Stays Dedicated To AI JPMorgan’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, remains bullish on the AI investing theme. He cited huge investments are going on all over the AI industry and the economy has been strong as evidence for his sense of optimism. Moreover, he expects AI spending to hit $700 billion this year.

While the labor market is relatively unchanged, the investment in AI is getting into the hundreds of billions of dollars this year, Dimon said. He described the environment as “We’re in a bull market. It’s like a little tsunami. When that kind of thing happens, it’s very hard to stop.”

In past years, Dimon has harshly denounced Bitcoin several times. Despite this he has recently tempered his concerns about geopolitical tensions and government borrowing over the next couple of years.

There has also been some doubts about the hype around AI stocks. In a recent article on their respective Substacks, Bernstein and Cummings suggested that the recent rise in valuation at the top-tier AI firms suggests a bubble that is “still inflating.”

They also said that businesses are investing aggressively in AI, which is decreasing their cash holdings, and that the technology budget is a higher percentage of U.S. GDP than it was in the dot-com days.

In the interim, BlackRock analyst Rick Rieder has signaled that the asset manager will be selling down its holdings of companies that are directly leveraging AI and buying up companies that are likely to benefit from the growth of AI.

One company that has caught the eye is TeraWulf, a Bitcoin miner. For context, Terawulf recently inked a 20-year contract with Anthropic to host the tech company’s AI data center infrastructure.

Softer Inflation Data Supports Crypto Market Rebound The overall crypto market was also fueled by new U.S. inflation data. The producer price index (PPI) was slightly below the market’s expectations. PPI inflation rose 5.5% year-over-year, much below the market expectations of 6.2%.

After the inflation release, Bitcoin rose above $65,000 and Ethereum returned to the $1,900 mark. The entire cryptocurrency market also moved higher as traders dialled back their hopes for further monetary tightening.

Markets have now given little chance of a July rate hike based on CME FedWatch data. The sentiment around the crypto market is improving, as evidenced by limited expectations for tighter monetary policy on Prediction market Polymarket.

However, since OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepSeek are eyeing an IPO, netizens expect capital to rotate from risk assets like Bitcoin toward these companies. Recently, the SpaceX IPO saw billions in investment from both traditional and risk-oriented investors.

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Bitcoin investor Lark Davis has called Cardano, Polkadot, Ethereum Classic, and Arbitrum the most overvalued cryptocurrencies in the top 100 coins list. Despite carrying multi billion dollar valuations, these projects still show weak network activity and low revenue.

According to Davis, these networks have good technology in some cases, but their ecosystems have failed to generate enough demand to justify their market caps.

Top Four Altcoins That Are OvervaluedAccording to Davis, these networks have good technology in some cases, but their ecosystems have failed to generate enough demand to justify their market caps.

Cardano Still Struggles to Attract UsersCardano topped Davis’ list, as he pointed out that the network processes around 30,000 transactions per day, has only 10,000 daily active addresses, and generates roughly $2,000 in daily application revenue despite maintaining a market cap of around $6 billion.

Token Terminal data shows that Cardano aonly generate only $1.9 million in revenue fees, far behind networks like Solana and Tron, which generate more than $603 million and $581 million in weekly revenue, respectively.

Davis questioned why Cardano continues to carry such a large valuation if network usage remains relatively low. Meanwhile, ADA is trading near $0.162, still almost 95% below its all-time high.

Polkadot’s Token Model Faces CriticismDavis believes Polkadot’s biggest issue is not its technology but its token utility. He noted that Polkadot’s main chain records only around 2,400 daily active users, while its TVL remains close to $40 million. 

By comparison, many competing Layer-1 and Layer-2 networks process significantly more users and lock billions of dollars in DeFi.

According to Davis, governance, staking, and coretime sales have failed to create enough real demand for the DOT token.

As of now, DOT currently trades around $0.838, down nearly 98.5% from its all-time high.

Ethereum Classic and Arbitrum Also Make the ListDavis also criticized Ethereum Classic, saying the blockchain has become a “ghost town.” Despite maintaining a market capitalization above $1.1 billion, Ethereum Classic has only around 1,300 daily active addresses, approximately $150,000 in TVL, and roughly $72,000 in on-chain stablecoins. 

As of now, ETC trades near $6.97, almost 96% below its record high.

Lastly, Davis aimed for Arbitrum (ARB). While he acknowledged that Arbitrum has strong blockchain technology, he argued that the ARB token does not capture enough value because the revenue generated by Offchain Labs does not directly benefit token holders.

Although Arbitrum serves around 2.2 million monthly active users and generates nearly $570,000 in monthly revenue, Davis believes the governance token itself has very limited use. ARB currently trades near $0.0866, down more than 96% from its all-time high.

While Davis believes these projects remain heavily overvalued, supporters argue that market value is not based only on current activity. 

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TLDR Bitcoin retreated to $64,000 after reaching a three-week high near $65,600. Ethereum fell below $1,900 after briefly approaching a six-week peak of $1,950. Lower-than-expected US inflation data initially supported gains across the crypto market. Bitcoin maintained a 56.7% market dominance despite its latest price decline. Ondo gained 17%, while Bitcoin Cash and DeXe led losses among larger cryptocurrencies. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped by $40 billion to approximately $2.27 trillion. Bitcoin price returned to $64,000 after briefly reaching a three-week high near $65,600. Ethereum also reversed from a six-week peak near $1,950 and slipped below $1,900. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market lost about $40 billion from its latest daily peak.

Bitcoin Reverses After CPI-Fueled Advance Bitcoin price had traded near $64,000 during a relatively calm and positive weekend. However, renewed tension between the United States and Iran pressured markets when trading resumed. Bitcoin then fell below $62,000 by Tuesday morning as traders assessed the weekend strikes.

Bitcoin price recovered sharply after June inflation figures came below market expectations. It reclaimed $64,000 and later crossed $65,000 as buying activity strengthened across major exchanges. The advance then peaked near $65,600, marking Bitcoin’s highest level in roughly three weeks.

Sellers regained control after the peak, and the Bitcoin price dropped by about $1,500. The asset returned to approximately $64,000, erasing much of the inflation-driven increase. Its market value also declined to about $1.285 trillion, according to CoinGecko data.

Ethereum Retreats From Six-Week High Ethereum outperformed several large-cap assets as it climbed toward $1,950 during the broader rebound. The move placed ETH at its highest level since early June. However, selling pressure later pushed the token below the $1,900 mark.

Bitcoin price remained comparatively stable while Ethereum recorded the stronger short-term move. BNB edged closer to $580, but XRP slipped slightly while contesting the $1.10 level. These mixed results showed limited follow-through among several leading alternative cryptocurrencies.

Solana, Tron, Hyperliquid, Rain, Zcash, Canton, Litecoin, and Cardano all posted daily losses. Bitcoin Cash and DeXe recorded sharper declines among larger assets. In contrast, Ondo gained about 17% as the Bitcoin price stabilized near $64,000.

Crypto Market Value Declines The total cryptocurrency market value fell by roughly $40 billion from its daily peak. It later stood near $2.270 trillion as selling spread across several major tokens. The Bitcoin price decline contributed to the broader pullback after the earlier market advance.

Bitcoin maintained a 56.7% share of the total cryptocurrency market despite the decline. Therefore, its dominance stayed unchanged even as several alternative assets recorded deeper losses. The Bitcoin price remained above levels seen during Tuesday’s early decline below $62,000.

The market ended the period with Bitcoin near $64,000 and Ethereum below $1,900. The Bitcoin price held part of its CPI-driven recovery but remained below Wednesday’s three-week peak. Overall market value also stayed lower as the Bitcoin price rally lost momentum.

Bitfinex Alpha reported that the lower-than-expected US inflation figures for June propelled Bitcoin to its highest daily close since June 22, but the rise is not yet backed by strong and sustainable demand.

According to the report, the recent movement in Bitcoin was largely driven by the repricing of macroeconomic expectations and the interest rate outlook. However, the market did not see sustained spot buying, a positive Coinbase premium, or continued ETF inflows independent of the price level. Bitfinex Alpha therefore characterized the rise as “borrowed strength.”

Analysts have identified the $68,000 to $68,300 range as a critical decision point for Bitcoin. They added that continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are necessary for the price to maintain its position above this range.

Yesterday, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net inflow of $181.1 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund accounting for $138.9 million of that amount. Bitfinex Alpha stated that flows in the coming days will show whether the outflow on July 13th was temporary and whether a new wave of strong inflows has begun.

The report warned that despite one of the most positive macroeconomic data releases of the year, the lack of strengthening investor demand could invalidate the expectation of an increase in July.

According to Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin’s rejection from the $68,000-$68,300 range, coupled with funding rates rising above 15% and high demand for put options, could increase the risk of a decline. In such a scenario, the current price range could be maintained, or Bitcoin could even fall below its lows of $58,000.

*This is not investment advice.

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Strategy President and CEO Phong Le told Bloomberg Television that the company's balance sheet remains on firm footing at current $BTC prices, pushing back against growing concerns over the firm's leverage.

Debt Risk Only at $8,000 to $10,000Strategy, the largest public holder of Bitcoin, would only begin considering balance-sheet risks if BTC sinks to the $8,000 to $10,000 range. Phong Le identified that range as when the company "would have to consider some of the risk associated with our debt," in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Such a drop would represent a decline of around 85% based on Bitcoin's price at the time of writing.

Le said Strategy must "build a capital structure that can withstand bear markets," and expressed confidence the company remains positioned to benefit from future rallies. "We've been through this in 2022, we're going through it in 2026, and I'm pretty excited about the next bull market of Bitcoin," Le said.

Cash Reserves Bolstered, Bitcoin Accumulation PausedStrategy increased its U.S. dollar reserve by $466.7 million to $3 billion through its at-the-market equity program, according to a regulatory filing. Le said the decision to hold $3 billion in cash reflects feedback from preferred shareholders rather than a change in the company's Bitcoin thesis. Strategy estimated annual preferred dividends and interest expense at approximately $1.76 billion, meaning the $3 billion reserve covers roughly 20 months of obligations without requiring new securities issuance or further Bitcoin sales.

Strategy made no Bitcoin purchases or sales during the period, leaving its holdings unchanged at 843,775 BTC, acquired at an aggregate cost of approximately $63.69 billion at an average price of $75,476 per coin. At its current cost basis, Strategy is already carrying unrealized losses, yet Le framed the company's capital structure as designed to absorb prolonged drawdowns rather than short-term volatility.

Le dismissed concerns over Strategy's market influence, pointing to a recent $200 million Bitcoin sale that "did not move the market," arguing the company's 843,775 BTC, roughly 4% of total supply, does not create systemic selling pressure. Despite the recent pause in accumulation, Le reaffirmed that Strategy plans to remain a long-term buyer of Bitcoin.

Sources:
CoinDesk: Strategy feels 'very secure' until Bitcoin reaches $8,000-$10,000, says CEO
CoinDesk: Strategy adds $467 million in cash, makes no changes to Bitcoin holdings
Bloomberg: Strategy CEO aims to boost preferred shares, buy more Bitcoin

Bitcoin [BTC] traded toward the $65,000 price level, having gained over 3% in the past 24 hours. The hash rate, on the other hand, is declining as Bitcoin miners continue moving into AI infrastructure.

How will the mining economics affect the current and future prices of Bitcoin?

Bitcoin miner revenue stressed as hash rate declines Looking at the Puell Multiple, BTC miner stress is building, but miners remain adamant about selling.

The Puell Multiple has slipped below the 1 mark, with the reading at 0.71, slightly above the accumulation zone. Historically, the accumulation zone marks a tight revenue stress for miners, as it reflects the supply side of the Bitcoin economy.

Source: CoinGlass Moreover, Hash Ribbons have printed yet another capitulation band as hashrate fades from its peak. Over the past year, hashrate has dropped from 1,106,922,137 TH/s last November to 995,460,294 TH/s.

Source: Blockchain.com/charts Furthermore, Bitcoin mining difficulty has dropped another 5% to 127.17T, which is nearly 17% below the peak of 148.26T seen at the beginning of the year. This indicates miners are getting relief, but it does reduce the network’s security.

With difficulty reducing, a solo miner found a Bitcoin block and earned a full 3.1382 BTC reward worth about $200K. This was somehow luck, as the probability of finding a block with 1 TH/s was roughly 1 in 16,000 years.

Miner reserve flows ticking up…accumulation underway? With that in mind, miner flows were ticking up as per CryptoQuant. That is, inflows outweighed outflows, though by a small margin.

The data showed miner reserves held 1.1943 million BTC, equivalent to $76.76 billion. This was a 1% increase, representing a net flow of more than 224 BTC. This data shows accumulation, as BTC is currently undervalued.

Source: CryptoQuant From the data, it is clear that miners’ wallets are full and distribution has not yet started. The data indicates a supply overhang that is yet to be triggered.

Looking ahead, if miner reserves start bleeding while The Puell Multiple stays depressed, there will be forced selling.

How BTC be affected? But since the reserves are not bleeding, the price of BTC is showing signs of recovery. It has broken above the neckline of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, but the signal is only valid if it can stay above it.

Source: BTC/USD on TradingView Otherwise, a break below the neckline alongside miner selling would exert more pressure, curtailing the little recovery seen.

Final Summary Bitcoin miners are seeing a decline in revenue, but they continue accumulating, with their reserves growing by 1%.  BTC price has seen a slight recovery due to accumulation, breaking above the neckline of a bullish reversal pattern. 

Updated Jul 16, 2026, 5:36 a.m. Published Jul 16, 2026, 4:09 a.m.

3 min read

Two groups of BTC holders sell on the rise. (geralt/Pixabay)Summary

Two distinct groups of on-chain holders are selling into BTC’s price bounce.BTC has jumped to nearly $65,000 on the back of softer-than-expected U.S. inflation reports for June. Some analysts say the inflation data is obsolete, given the renewed strength in oil prices.As macro tailwinds lift bitcoin BTC$64,759.75, two distinct groups of investors are selling into strength, potentially slowing the ascent.

The first are long-term holders, which Glassnode defines as addresses/wallets that tend to hold for at least five months. Long-term holders, who bought near highs last year, are capitulating, or using the bounce to sell their coins at a loss rather than holding through deeper drawdowns. This signifies a lack of confidence in the sustainability of the latest BTC price rise.

Suggesting the same are short-term holders, who scooped up coins near the recent lows. They are currently realizing profits at a pace exceeding $4 million per day in a selling wave reminiscent of what was seen in May, when BTC briefly rose to its 200-day average above $82,000.

The result? Simultaneous selling from both is likely creating overhead supply exactly as the market tries to break higher. It's an indication that conviction remains shaky among those still underwater from earlier in the cycle.

"As price rallies toward $66k, LTH realized loss volume is spiking! Cycle-top buyers are using the relief rally as an exit opportunity, locking in losses at a smaller margin than the sub-60k lows allowed. Selling into strength rather than waiting for recovery is a pattern consistent with exhausted conviction among underwater long-term holders," the analyst added.

"Adding to the sell-side pressure from LTH loss realization, short-term holders who bought near the recent lows are now taking profit at volumes last seen close to the peak in May," the analyst added.

BTC has bounced this week to nearly $65,000 from $61,500, with most of the gains occurring on Tuesday after U.S. consumer price inflation came in softer than expected. Headline CPI rose just 3.5% year-over-year in June, missing the 3.8% consensus forecast and marking a notable cooldown from prior months. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, came in at 2.6% YoY with a flat reading month-over-month.

June's producer price index, offering cues on inflation in the pipeline, also came in lower than expected. Both reports eased fears of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, sending the dollar index lower, down half a percent to 100.48 this week. Treasury yields have dropped as well.

Some observers remain skeptical of the sustainability of this inflation-led bounce, arguing that the collapse in oil prices mainly drove the slower growth in the cost of living in June and that the recent bounce in oil makes that data obsolete.

"The 3.5% [CPI] number was driven by a 10% drop in gasoline through June, and that move had already reversed before the report was published, with Brent at a one-month high as the Hormuz situation escalates," Ryan Lee, chief analyst at crypto exchange Bitget, said in an email.

"Markets are rallying on a June photograph, while July develops differently, and the July print will be the first to carry the war premium," Lee added.

Jasper De Maere, OTC trader at lading market maker Wintermute, also called for caution, while acknowledging inflation-led bounce and profit-taking near $65,000.

“While the inflation data is genuinely constructive and while positive headlines are very refreshing, it's worth noting the backdrop hasn't cleared with U.S. strikes on Iran are into a fourth consecutive day, and the Fear & Greed Index only moved from 22 to 25, still Extreme Fear. One soft CPI print against an active military escalation is not the same as a durable regime shift in risk appetite,” he said in an email.

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Bitcoin sustained its recent gains following a rally sparked by better-than-expected US inflation data, with traders monitoring whether the cryptocurrency can maintain key support levels in the coming days. Market participants are watching for potential corrective moves, but sentiment remains broadly optimistic as buying interest returns across digital assets.

BTC consolidates after inflation-driven surgeAs of the latest trading session, Bitcoin is priced at $64,612, marking a 3% increase over the past 24 hours. The daily trading volume reached $48.49 billion, and Bitcoin’s overall market capitalization stood at $1.30 trillion. These figures reflect stronger inflows and growing confidence among investors following the most recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

Crypto analyst Lennaert Snyder commented on July 15, 2026, that Bitcoin has shown resilience in response to the latest CPI report, successfully surpassing its recent weekly high. Snyder identified the prior weekly low at $61,300 as a significant support level, crucial for the ongoing bullish momentum.

Snyder disclosed that he briefly opened a short position as Bitcoin approached exhaustion during the rally, but clarified that this was a tactical, counter-trend trade. He indicated that his target levels are also areas where he intends to re-enter long positions if technical conditions are favorable.

Lennaert Snyder pointed to two main price scenarios: Bitcoin could temporarily dip to sweep liquidity near $64,300 while maintaining the uptrend if it stays above $63,600. Alternatively, a stronger correction toward $63,300 might trigger new buying, as hidden buy orders could be filled in that region. Snyder continues to target $65,600 as the next upside level.

Mini dictionary: CPI (Consumer Price Index), a key economic indicator measuring changes in the price of a basket of consumer goods and services, often used to gauge inflation trends in the economy.

Technical indicators favor bullish momentumTechnical signals continue to support the bullish case for Bitcoin after the inflation-driven rally. Bitcoin is currently trading above the mid-point of the Bollinger Band, which sits at $62,254. The upper Bollinger Band is positioned at $66,026, indicating there may be further potential for the price to rise before encountering the next notable resistance zone.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55.38, comfortably above the signal line at 50.63. An RSI reading above 50 indicates prevailing buying pressure and signals that upward momentum could continue if buyers remain active. However, with values remaining below overbought conditions, there is still room for the rally to extend further.

IndicatorCurrent ValueKey LevelsBTC Price$64,612Resistance $65,600 / Support $63,300 & $61,300Bollinger BandsMid: $62,254 / Upper: $66,026Room for upward movementRSI55.38Above signal (50.63), bullishMacro factors influence outlookThe recent price surge in Bitcoin has been driven largely by lower US inflation data. Analysts suggest that softer inflation numbers could increase the likelihood of more accommodating monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which generally supports risk assets like cryptocurrencies and tech stocks.

Throughout the past two years, key economic announcements such as the CPI have been major catalysts for significant market moves in Bitcoin. Current market conditions highlight how macroeconomic and crypto-specific news continues to play a decisive role in short-term price swings.

With Bitcoin entering the second half of July, traders are monitoring how the price reacts to resistance near $65,600. The sustainability of this level may determine the trajectory for the rest of the month, while market attention remains on key US economic data and potential signals from the central bank.

Bitcoin’s overall outlook remains positive as strong support levels persist, but temporary corrections are still possible following sharp rallies. Investors are expected to watch global economic trends and central bank guidance closely to assess the future direction of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Adoption is easiest to measure when it shows up on the balance sheet. In June, Abra shifted from WBTC to $tBTC, as the main BTC collateral for its Bitcoin-backed lending platform, one of the clearest signals yet that institutional preference is consolidating around tokenized Bitcoin that can be verified onchain. The data told the same story from a different angle: tBTC's DeFi TVL-to-FDV multiple reached 7.4 in Q1 2026, up 228% year over year, while Verifiable Bitcoin Accounts (VBA) continue to meet institutional standards.

Here's the full recap of the month.

HighlightsAbra completed its shift from WBTC to tBTC, making verifiable collateral the foundation of its Bitcoin-backed lending platform.tBTC's DeFi TVL-to-FDV multiple climbed from 6.5 to 7.4 in Q1 2026, up 13% quarter over quarter and 228% over the past year.Lightning to tBTC is now one click on DZap, with Boltz live on the aggregator to bridge BTC from the Lightning Network directly to tBTC on Arbitrum.Full details to each highlight on the sections below.Ecosystem GrowthVerifiable Bitcoin Accounts bring the Bitcoin-level integration path into focus

Verifiable Bitcoin Accounts (VBA) Integration Path | Threshold NetworkVerifiable Bitcoin Accounts rollout continues with a look at its Bitcoin-level integration path, detailing how the design connects to the infrastructure institutions already operate: Bitcoin stays with the institution's existing Qualified Custodian, so adoption requires no change in custody arrangements and integrates seamlessly into the institution's existing compliance structure.

The enforcement layer is what separates the design from conventional arrangements: 

Recovery paths are enforced by Bitcoin Script and Bitcoin consensus rather than by counterparty promises. A time-locked withdrawal executes when a specified time period has elapsed.Bitcoin UTXO remains the system of record throughout. Threshold also posted a rundown of Verifiable Bitcoin Accounts FAQs, walking institutions through the basics of how VBAs resolve common tensions in onchain Bitcoin deployment. For institutional teams, the integration path turns an architectural argument into a checklist they can hand to their custody and compliance functions.

Abra moves its Bitcoin-backed lending to tBTC

Threshold x Abra Integration | Threshold NetworkThe month's defining integration came from Abra, which completed its migration from WBTC to tBTC as the preferred collateral base for its Bitcoin-backed lending platform. Abra's borrowers pledge Bitcoin they intend to keep, which makes the quality of the collateral asset the product itself.

The platform serves high-net-worth individuals and institutions across wealth and treasury management, giving clients an edge in trading and collateralized borrowing while segregated account infrastructure keeps them in full control of their assets. The choice of collateral says as much as the integration itself. Platforms carrying fiduciary duties to their clients are re-examining how wrapped Bitcoin is designed, and Abra's move fits squarely within that shift.

tBTC deepens its position across lending markets

tBTC's DeFi TVL to FDV Data | Threshold NetworkThe on-chain data showed the same trend as Abra's decision. tBTC's DeFi TVL to FDV multiple climbed from 6.5 to 7.4 in Q1 2026, up 13% from the prior quarter and 228% over the past year. The multiple is a cleaner read than raw TVL because it strips out price noise and isolates utility. Flows into DeFi have grown in the double digits in $BTC terms every quarter since Q3 2025, a streak that predates the current drawdown and has continued through it.

The distribution of that growth tells the institutional story. Per Alea Research's latest BTCFi snapshot, Aave V3 alone holds $138M in tBTC, representing 29% of tBTC's DeFi TVL and the single largest driver of BTC-denominated growth, with supplied collateral up 24% quarter over quarter. Curve and YieldBasis join it at the top, and together the leading venues account for roughly 57% of all tBTC deployed in DeFi. Depth concentrated in proven protocols is what allocators screen for, and it's where tBTC's liquidity sits.

tBTC TVL in Active Lending Markets | Threshold NetworkMulti-chain swap simplifies the path into tBTC

Multi-chain Swap on the Threshold Bitcoin Router | Threshold NetworkThe multi-chain swap stands as one of the foundational entry points to tBTC and the Bitcoin Economy. Holders of other tokenized BTC can convert to tBTC with a single swap, either through the Threshold App or on external venues such as Uniswap, Curve, and Portal Bridge.

The Threshold Bitcoin Router ties the experience together by unifying positions across all supported networks in a single view. A portfolio spread across chains reads as a single balance, removing the accounting friction that multi-chain deployment usually entails. For users already holding tokenized Bitcoin elsewhere, the distance between where they are and where they want to be is now one transaction.

Boltz goes live on DZap, connecting Lightning to tBTC in one click

The path from Bitcoin's payments layer to its DeFi layer got shorter in June. Boltz, the non-custodial swap protocol supporting Bitcoin, Lightning, and tBTC, is now live on DZap, letting users bridge BTC from the Lightning Network directly to tBTC on Arbitrum in a single click. Boltz natively supports atomic swaps between Lightning and tBTC on Arbitrum, meaning both legs of the trade either complete together or fail entirely, with no party able to default after receiving assets.

For Lightning users, that turns tBTC into the shortest trust-minimized distance between holding sats and deploying Bitcoin in DeFi. For Threshold, every aggregator surface that routes through tBTC widens the funnel into the Bitcoin Economy, confirming a pattern worth noting: the tBTC-on-Arbitrum architecture Boltz built is being adopted by other builders, with DZap's integration extending that reach to its aggregation audience.

Community and EventsJohn Packel joins Bitcoin for Corporations in NYC

John Packel attends Bitcoin for Corporations NYC | Threshold NetworkThreshold Labs Head of Operations John Packel took part in Bitcoin for Corporations, an invitation-only forum held in New York City. The room brought together corporate treasury and capital markets professionals working through a shared question from different angles: how to put Bitcoin to work without compromising on custody or compliance.

Threshold Forum opens discussion on a Protocol as Arbitrageur modelGovernance attention in June turned to the economics of peg maintenance, with a new proposal on the Threshold Forum recommending that the RebateStaking contract be replaced by a Protocol as an Arbitrageur model. The existing contract underpins the fee waiver framework, which reduces redemption friction for $T Stakers are improving arbitrage efficiency and supporting a tighter BTC-to-tBTC spread. The design has performed as intended, yet it depends on external participants to execute the arbitrage that maintains price alignment, with the value from closing the spread accruing to those participants while the protocol absorbs the cost through foregone fee revenue.

The proposed model would consolidate that function within the protocol itself, conducting the peg-maintaining arbitrage directly rather than subsidizing third parties through rebates, and retaining the associated value in the process. The proposal is under open discussion on the Threshold Forum, where review by tokenholders and contributors determines which proposals advance to a formal vote. Participation ahead of any vote is open to all.

Looking AheadJune's throughline was institutional conviction backed by verifiable data, and the months ahead extend each of these threads: Q2 closes with fresh on-chain data to test whether the growth streak holds through a fifth quarter. The Protocol as Arbitrageur discussion advances through the forum, an example of the network reviewing its own economics in the open. Institutional conversations of the kind John Packel joined in New York continue to seed the evaluation pipelines that produce integrations like Abra's, and the Verifiable Bitcoin Accounts series keeps meeting diligence teams at each stage of that process.

The direction has been consistent for six years, and it remains so now: Bitcoin's utility expands onchain, and Threshold builds the infrastructure that lets institutions verify it rather than take it on trust.

Currently, the market is showing all the signs of an altcoin cycle.

From the technical standpoint, while Bitcoin [BTC] dominance has trended higher for three straight weeks, recently breaking above the 59% level, Ethereum [ETH] dominance is now taking the lead, pushing the ETH/BTC ratio up more than 10% over the same window. This suggests that capital is rotating across the market rather than remaining solely “Bitcoin-led.”

Ripple is no exception. As AMBCrypto flagged, FOMO around XRP and ETH has climbed to a five-week high, while Bitcoin sentiment remains neutral. More importantly, XRP is leading ETH in bullish sentiment, recording 3.02 bullish comments for every 1 bearish comment compared with ETH’s 2.31-to-1 ratio.

Source: TradingView (XRP/BTC) In essence, FOMO around XRP is building faster than the broader market.

The timing is important. As the chart above shows, the XRP/BTC ratio has recently broken below the key 0.00002 support level, a level that sparked a strong breakout during the Q3 2025 cycle. Since then, the ratio has printed more than four straight lower lows, showing that XRP has continued to underperform Bitcoin. 

Now, with sentiment turning bullish again, the question is whether this growing momentum can help XRP reclaim strength against Bitcoin, especially with FOMO building. But the bigger question is whether that FOMO is actually showing up on-chain because, as a Layer 1 network, Ripple’s [XRP] strength ultimately depends on real network activity and capital flows, not just market sentiment.

XRP/BTC consolidates as on-chain momentum builds  A 10-week consolidation usually sets the stage for a strong move in either direction.

With FOMO continuing to build, the bias is starting to lean bullish. The XRP/BTC ratio has now spent nearly 10 weeks consolidating around the 0.000015 level, a sign that longer-term accumulation may be taking place rather than short-term capital rotation. If that structure holds, a breakout above resistance could mark the start of a fresh leg higher for Ripple against BTC.

From the on-chain perspective, the setup already reinforces this view. According to DeFiLlama data, XRPL’s DeFi activity is rebounding, with TVL up more than 3% over the last 24 hours. The move has been backed by a 6%+ jump increase in stablecoin supply, pushing nearly $1 billion back into the network.

Source: DeFiLlama To put this into perspective, more than $2 billion in stablecoins have flowed out of the Ethereum network over the same period, highlighting a shift in liquidity toward alternative Layer-1 ecosystems like XRPL. 

Against this backdrop, the growing FOMO around Ripple doesn’t look like a fluke. Instead, liquidity is gradually rotating into XRPL, supporting the network’s underlying strength. If this trend continues, the XRP/BTC ratio could be setting up for more than just a short-term rally.

Instead, it could be the early stages of a broader breakout.

Final Summary XRP FOMO is rising, while the XRP/BTC ratio continues to consolidate, increasing the chances of a breakout. Strong XRPL on-chain activity and growing stablecoin flows suggest the rally is being supported by real network growth, not just market hype.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $107.8 million in net inflows on Wednesday, while their Ethereum counterparts pulled in $53.8 million.

The numbers in context Earlier in July, Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $181.1 million on a single day, July 14. So Wednesday’s figure represents a moderation from that pace, though still firmly positive.

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Cumulative net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now surpassed $51 billion since their January 2024 launch.

At $53.8 million, Wednesday’s ether ETF inflows represented roughly half the Bitcoin figure. Ether ETFs launched several months after their Bitcoin predecessors.

Recovery from a rocky start to the year Earlier in 2026, both Bitcoin and ether ETFs experienced multi-week outflow streaks. The summer months have brought a clear reversal, with funds flowing back into both product categories.

BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale have continued to attract the lion’s share of flows.

What this means for investors When the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, the optimistic projections called for maybe $10 billion in the first year. The actual numbers have blown past even the most bullish forecasts, with cumulative net inflows now exceeding $51 billion.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Leading cryptocurrencies traded sideways on Wednesday, while stocks rallied as investors digested softer inflation data amid heightened tensions with Iran

Bitcoin Steadies, Ethereum GainsBitcoin climbed to an intraday high of $65,507, only to encounter strong resistance soon after. Ethereum, meanwhile, broke $1,900 for the first time since Feb. 3, while XRP and Dogecoin moved sideways.

Over $300 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, mostly wiping out bearish short bets, according to Coinglass data

Bitcoin’s open interest rose 0.39% over the last 24 hours. Retail derivative sentiment on Binance remained “Neutral,” with volume of buy orders slightly exceeding sell orders during the period.

"Extreme Fear" sentiment prevailed in the market, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

Top Gainers (24 Hours) 

The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.2 trillion, following a dip of 0.79% over the last 24 hours.

Stocks Climb On Favorable Inflation DataStocks extended the gains on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150.37 points, or 0.29%, to end at 52,658.64.  The S&P 500 advanced 0.38% to close at 7,572.40, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite spiked 0.62% to settle at 26,269.22.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions kept investors on edge as the U.S. launched a second wave of strikes against Iran’s military assets.

‘Attractive Long-term Accumulation Area’Michaël van de Poppe, a widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader, said that indicators are flashing bottom signals and backed a dollar-cost averaging strategy during such periods.

The analyst reacted to a chart showing Bitcoin’s relative unrealized profit hitting lows comparable to past accumulation phases in 2020 and 2023.

“The cycles don’t need to repeat themselves on Bitcoin, but the behavior does repeat itself,” Van De Poppe said. “This is the time.”

Ali Martinez, another popular cryptocurrency commentator, says investors need not buy the “exact bottom” for long-term returns.

“Personally, I believe even current prices represent an attractive long-term accumulation area,” Martinez said. “My plan is to accumulate during periods of weakness and look to take profits during the next major cycle, around 2029.”

Photo Courtesy: Zakharchuk on Shutterstock.com

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Bitcoin is showing the first noteworthy signs of recovery after months of downward movement, establishing support near $65,000 following a rally above its 26-day EMA at $63,400. This shift suggests a potential change in short-term market sentiment, but significant resistance obstacles remain for the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value.

Bitcoin recently regained its 50-day EMA at $64,100, marking an important but preliminary step in overcoming the prevailing bearish structure. The next major target is the 100-day EMA, currently positioned at $68,500, which must be cleared for a decisive trend reversal. Price action continues to be defined by the broader 200-day EMA, which stands at $74,500 and maintains the overarching downtrend that began in late 2025.

Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing to nearly 57, signal strengthening buyer control. Unlike previous rebound attempts earlier this year that quickly faded, the current move is supported by ongoing buyer defense of the $58,000–$60,000 region. However, trading volume remains moderate, indicating that a full reversal has yet to materialize.

Bitcoin must break above the 100-day EMA to establish a pattern of sustained recovery and open the door for a potential move toward the $75,000 area. Until this level is reclaimed, upside discussions are likely to remain cautious.

LevelCurrent Price / EMASupport$65,00026-day EMA$63,40050-day EMA$64,100100-day EMA$68,500200-day EMA$74,500Ethereum leads large-cap recoveryEthereum stands out among the major cryptocurrencies for its technical strength in recent sessions. The asset, known for powering the largest decentralized application ecosystem, has effectively regained its 26-day and 50-day EMAs and is pushing toward the pivotal 100-day EMA at $1,944. ETH is currently trading near $1,920 and recently broke out of a minor ascending consolidation, indicating renewed demand.

Momentum and volume have improved, supporting the rally, while the RSI has moved up to 66, approaching overbought territory but still suggesting room for bullish continuation. Technical analysts point to $1,944 as Ethereum’s critical upside barrier in the short run. Clearing this could enable a move to the 200-day EMA at $2,217, especially given improved market sentiment since ETH set a higher low after the June capitulation event.

Ethereum continues to demonstrate clear outperformance among large-cap cryptocurrencies, with technical momentum and buying pressure resulting in steady gains above recent support levels.

Should Ethereum fail to clear the 100-day EMA, analysts anticipate further sideways trading between $1,750 and $1,950 until the market establishes a firmer directional consensus.

XRP faces ongoing resistanceXRP, the native token of payments-focused blockchain company Ripple, remains trapped beneath a cluster of closely grouped moving averages. XRP is trading near $1.12 and has struggled to rise above its 50-day and 26-day EMAs—currently at $1.15 and $1.14, respectively. Each attempt to break out above a descending resistance line established in July has met renewed selling activity, keeping upward momentum in check.

Despite these challenges, XRP has stabilized above the psychological $1 level. The RSI has edged back above 50, a solid sign of improving balance between buyers and sellers, but all major trend indicators—including the 100-day EMA at $1.25 and 200-day EMA at $1.46—remain overhead. Volume has also remained subdued, pointing toward a period of consolidation rather than a robust turnaround.

XRP bulls are watching for a move above the short-term moving averages. Success could allow the asset to challenge resistance at $1.25, while failure prompts a possible retest of support between $1.00 and $1.05.

Zcash emerges as a bullish outlierPrivacy-focused cryptocurrency Zcash (ZEC) has outperformed much of the market by reclaiming all major moving averages. Price has moved above the 26-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, resulting in a definitive bullish market structure. The RSI above 66 highlights persistent buyer participation without signals of major overheating, and trading volume has remained consistently strong throughout its recent ascent.

The latest breakout above the $520–$540 range invalidated the corrective pattern that followed June’s heightened volatility, with buyers repeatedly supporting the market at critical levels. ZEC now faces initial resistance around $600, with prior swing highs noted between $650 and $700.

ZEC will remain technically favored as long as it holds above $500 support, positioning itself as a notable bullish exception among large- and mid-cap tokens in the current market environment.

Mini dictionary: Zcash (ZEC): A privacy-focused cryptocurrency launched in 2016, Zcash utilizes advanced cryptographic techniques called zk-SNARKs to enable shielded (private) or transparent transactions, offering enhanced user privacy compared to most blockchains.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

PANews, July 16 – According to SoSoValue data, the overall crypto market sectors trended narrowly sideways. The RWA sector stood out with a 24-hour gain of 6.40%, as Ondo Finance (ONDO) rose 15.92% and Centrifuge (CFG) rose 2.87%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) edged up 0.19%, briefly breaking through $65,000 during the session; Ethereum (ETH) rose 2.92%, breaking above $1,900.

Other sectors that performed well include: the DeFi sector, which posted a 24-hour rise of 0.96%, with ZeroLend (ZERO) surging 28.87%; and the PayFi sector, up 0.32%, with eCash (XEC) gaining 13.68%.

In other sectors, the Meme sector slipped 0.07%, but Pump.fun (PUMP) rose 1.53%; the CeFi sector fell 0.13%, while Mantle (MNT) held relatively firm, up 1.69%; the Layer1 sector fell 0.23%, with Injective (INJ) rallying 3.24% intraday; the Layer2 sector fell 0.34%, with MegaETH (MEGA) bucking the trend to rise 2.39%; and the SocialFi sector fell 2.43%, with Gram (GRAM) declining 2.36%.

According to EmberCN’s monitoring, as Bitcoin (BTC) rebounds above $65,000, the whale holding a $49 million short BTC position on Hyperliquid has less than $900 remaining to its liquidation price. The whale shorted 750 BTC at an average price of $59,941 at the end of June, incurring an unrealized loss of $4 million, with a liquidation price of $66,153.

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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) tapped $65,000 on Wednesday as several on-chain indicators flash the strongest accumulation signal since the 2022 bear market.

Bitcoin Enters Historically Undervalued ZoneIn a Milk Road interview on July 14, Bitcoin Magazine Pro analyst Matt Crosby said Bitcoin may still revisit lower levels, but current valuations create an "asymmetric opportunity" as technical, fundamental and macro indicators converge near historically important support zones.

Bitcoin recently dropped to a range between $57,000 and $58,000, placing its valuation in the bottom 5% of historical readings.

The comparable readings appeared near the 2018 bear market bottom, March 2020 COVID-19 crash and 2022 bear market lows.

Crosby noted that investors waiting for a precise bottom, usually risk missing a sharp recovery. Bitcoin has historically moved quickly after completing its capitulation phase.

Several long-term indicators continue to point toward the $48,000 to $53,000 range as a potential downside support zone.

Bitcoin’s realized price sits near $53,000, while the long-term holder realized price is around $50,000.

The asset continues to trade near its 200-week moving average, which has served as a major bear market support level throughout most of its history.

Has Time-Based Capitulation Ended?Crosby described Bitcoin bear markets as having two stages: a sharp price-based capitulation followed by months of sideways trading that wears down investor sentiment.

During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin spent roughly 156 days between its initial crash below $20,000 and its final low near $16,000.

Applying the same timeline to the current cycle pointed to around July 12 as a possible end to the time-based capitulation period.

Bitcoin historically rallied sharply within 100 days after completing similar phases, though Crosby said the current bottom can only be confirmed in hindsight.

Despite recent outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs have reduced their total holdings by only around 18% from their peak, suggesting longer-term investors have maintained significant exposure through the downturn.

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Volume Has All But DisappearedCrypto's biggest assets are barely moving. According to Santiment, top-cap trading volumes have been sliding since July 2024 and are now sitting at their weakest average levels in roughly two years. This is not a crash. It is a slow drift, and it is broad-based. Santiment data shows the drop spans multiple top-cap coins simultaneously, with $BTC, $ETH, and other large-cap assets all showing the same pattern. The analytics firm describes the mood as one of exhaustion rather than aggression, with traders unwilling to commit in either direction.

The institutional side tells the same story. Glassnode's 30-day moving average of daily trading volume across US spot Bitcoin ETFs now sits at $1.25 billion, a 78% collapse from the $5.8 billion peak recorded in late 2025. Activity has also slipped below 2024 levels. Glassnode framed the slowdown as a loss of attention rather than a temporary lull, noting that a sustained recovery in $BTC price momentum would likely require participation to return from other asset classes.

Thin Books, Two EdgesLow volume markets are not neutral. Order books are shallow, which means price can move in either direction on relatively small flows. Rallies fade quickly when there is no depth behind them. But the same dynamic works in reverse: when sellers are done, it does not take much spot buying to shift the market.

Santiment has historically noted that crypto's strongest recoveries have emerged from periods when interest, volume, and participation were at their lowest. The current setup fits that profile. Sidelined capital sitting in stablecoins and money market funds means even a modest reallocation could produce an outsized move. The risk is timing. Low volume can persist for weeks or months without a change in direction, and capitulation is not a precise market timer. Until a catalyst appears, whether from macro clarity, a regulatory shift, or a concentrated inflow, the market risks grinding sideways on minimal flow.

Sources
BeInCrypto: What Washed-Out Crypto Sentiment Means for Bitcoin's Next Move
BeInCrypto: BlackRock Claim Fuels ETF Panic as Trading Hits Cycle Lows (Glassnode data)
Blockonomi: Crypto Trading Volumes Drop to Two-Year Lows

Bitcoin

15 July 2026 | 22:37 Bitcoin’s recovery to approximately $64,850 has increased the probability that the June low could develop into a broader market floor.

Price has moved above the 50-day moving average for the first time during the latest recovery attempt, although the available technical and onchain data does not yet confirm that a durable bottom is in place.

Glassnode data shows that long-term holder losses have started easing and buyers absorbed supply around the June lows. Bitcoin now faces a more demanding test between $66,000 and $68,400, where options positioning, profit-taking and the average cost basis of recent buyers converge.

Bitcoin’s bottom is still building, but its character is shifting.

That is Glassnode’s assessment, rather than confirmation that the cycle low is already established. The shift refers to cooling long-term holder capitulation, broad buying around the June lows and Bitcoin’s advance toward key cost-basis resistance, while the lack of sustained spot demand remains the missing confirmation.

Key Takeaways Long-term holder losses eased after exceeding $390 million daily. Bitcoin remains below $66,000 max pain and $68,400 break-even. June dip buyers are already realizing short-term profits. A sustained $68,400 reclaim could strengthen the bottoming case. Higher spot volume is needed for stronger confirmation. Bitcoin Reclaims the 50-Day Average Bitcoin was trading near $64,850 at the time of writing, slightly above its declining 50-day simple moving average at approximately $64,115. A daily close above that level would mark an early technical improvement because the average has acted as resistance during the recovery from June’s low.

The 50-day SMA is also watched by discretionary traders and rules-based strategies, so a sustained close above it can influence re-entry decisions and reinforce the signal through follow-on buying.

Bitcoin price action with technical indicators. The daily Relative Strength Index stood near 55.7, above both the neutral 50 level and its signal line around 50.7. Momentum has therefore shifted in buyers’ favor without reaching overbought conditions, leaving room for further upside if demand continues.

The current move does not yet establish a broader trend reversal. Bitcoin remains below the falling 100-day average near $70,600 and the 200-day average around $73,500, creating substantial overhead resistance even if price clears the immediate $66,000-$68,400 cost-basis zone.

The distinction is important: reclaiming the 50-day average would confirm that the short-term structure is improving, while holding above $68,400 would show that the average recent buyer has moved back into profit. Bitcoin would need both developments to materially strengthen the case that the June low could become a durable market floor.

Four Signals Make a Bitcoin Bottom More Plausible The first improvement came from Bitcoin’s response to the macro environment. Between July 9 and July 15, BTC gained approximately 5.1% according to the report, compared with roughly 1.3% for the S&P 500 and 0.4% for the Euro Stoxx 50. Crypto led the reaction rather than simply following equities.

Bitcoin outperforms equities following CPI release. The move accelerated after the U.S. Consumer Price Index declined 0.4% in June, while core prices were unchanged. The softer signal was reinforced by producer-price data released on July 15, which showed final-demand prices falling 0.3% after a 0.6% increase in May, while the annual rate slowed from 6.5% to 5.5%. Together, the reports reduced the immediate pressure for additional Federal Reserve tightening, although a 0.2% rise in service-sector producer prices showed that inflation had not weakened uniformly.

One inflation report cannot establish a lasting change in monetary conditions. Bitcoin’s stronger response nevertheless indicates that sellers had become less aggressive and that investors were prepared to add exposure when the macro backdrop improved.

The second signal comes from the Entity-Adjusted Long-Term Holder Realized Loss. The metric climbed above $390 million per day around its cycle peak before beginning to ease in the latest data.

BTC Long-term holder capitulation peaking and easing. A decline does not mean long-term holders have stopped selling. It means losses realized by that cohort are no longer accelerating at the same rate, reducing one of the main sources of supply that repeatedly interrupted Bitcoin’s earlier recovery attempts.

Bitcoin also remains above its realized price near $52,900. This metric estimates the market-wide cost basis by valuing each coin at the price when it last moved onchain. Trading above it suggests the aggregate supply remains in profit, separating the current structure from deeper capitulation phases in which BTC falls below the average cost basis of the entire network.

The realized price is a valuation reference rather than guaranteed support. Exchange activity, internal wallet transfers and Glassnode’s entity-clustering methodology mean it should not be treated as an exact record of what every investor paid.

The fourth signal is Bitcoin’s proximity to the aggregated options max-pain level at $66,000. BTC was trading approximately 2% below that threshold, placing price close to a level that Glassnode says has historically aligned with shifts toward a more constructive derivatives regime when sustainably reclaimed.

Bitcoin testing crucial $66K max-pain level. Max pain is not permanent resistance. It changes as options expire and traders adjust their positions, so its value lies in showing the current concentration of derivatives exposure rather than predicting where Bitcoin must settle.

June Buyers Are Supplying the Recovery The principal counter-signal comes from short-term holders. Their realized profit on a 24-hour average has risen toward $4.5 million per day, reaching volumes last seen around the May market high. Long-term investors are still realizing losses at the same time, leaving two different cohorts selling into the recovery for different reasons.

Short-term holder realized profit trends emerging. The short-term holder activity appears contradictory because the average recent buyer remains underwater. Bitcoin was trading near $65,000, while the short-term holder cost basis stood around $68,400.

The profitable sellers are therefore not representative of every coin acquired during the previous 155 days. They are more likely concentrated among investors who bought near the June lows around $60,000 and can now lock in gains of roughly 8% before BTC reaches the broader cohort’s break-even level.

This connects the bullish and bearish readings. Buyers who absorbed supply during the June decline helped stabilize the market, but part of that same group is now returning coins to circulation. Their earlier demand supported the rebound; their profit-taking becomes additional resistance before underwater buyers are made whole.

Early buyers realizing gains is normal during a recovery and does not invalidate the possibility of a durable low. The question is whether new demand can replace them quickly enough to prevent their selling from exhausting the advance.

Three Seller Groups Sit Above Bitcoin The resistance between current price and the upper cost-basis levels is distributed across three thresholds:

$66,000: The aggregated max-pain level, where current options positioning may affect short-term price behavior. $68,400: The short-term holder cost basis, where the average recent buyer returns to break-even. $76,400: The True Market Mean, which estimates the acquisition cost of economically active supply. Together, these levels define the supply overhang, the zones where more market participants may be incentivized to sell or hedge, increasing the demand required for Bitcoin to continue higher.

That does not mean there is no support between $65,000 and the realized price. Previous range levels, trading volume and fresh accumulation can create demand around $60,000 or elsewhere. It means the cost-basis models do not identify an equally important aggregate holder threshold immediately beneath the market.

What Could Strengthen the Bottoming Scenario Step 1: Daily Close >$66,000

Step 2: Reclaim $68,400

Step 3: Break Short-Term Cost Basis

Step 4: Weekly Close with Spot Volume

A sustained daily close above $66,000 would clear the immediate options threshold. The stronger confirmation would be a subsequent reclaim of $68,400, followed by price holding that level as support.

Moving above the short-term holder cost basis would shift the average recent buyer from an unrealized loss into profit. It would also demonstrate that the market can absorb both profit-taking from June dip buyers and loss realization from investors who entered near the cycle highs.

A weekly close above the zone, supported by stronger spot volume and sustained spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, might make the bottoming interpretation more credible. Glassnode’s data shows that derivatives traders are reducing bearish exposure, but closing shorts and allowing downside hedges to expire is not equivalent to new spot capital entering the market.

The scenario would weaken if short-term holder profit-taking remains near May-peak levels while Bitcoin is rejected again around $66,000. Renewed acceleration in long-term holder losses would add a second warning that the available demand cannot absorb both seller groups.

Under that outcome, the recovery could become another lower high rather than the start of a trend reversal. The $52,900 realized price would remain the principal market-wide valuation anchor below, although Bitcoin could encounter intermediate support before reaching it.

Taken together, the data makes the possibility of a Bitcoin bottom more credible than it appeared during the June selloff, but the evidence remains incomplete. Selling pressure is no longer intensifying, the market remains above its aggregate cost basis and favorable macro news is attracting demand. The decisive test could be whether BTC can reclaim the $66,000–$68,400 zone without the rally being exhausted by the investors who bought the June lows.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.

Author

Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.

In brief BIP-110 would restrict several methods used to embed non-financial data in Bitcoin transactions. Supporters say the proposal would reduce blockchain spam, while critics argue it would invalidate legitimate transactions and risk a chain split. Despite attracting little miner support, BIP-110 has become one of Bitcoin's biggest governance debates in years. A proposal to change Bitcoin's consensus rules has divided developers, miners, companies, and users over how the network should evolve and who gets to decide.

The dispute centers around Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110, or BIP-110. If implemented, BIP-110 would temporarily restrict several methods used to embed arbitrary data in Bitcoin transactions.

Supporters say the proposal would reduce blockchain spam and reinforce Bitcoin's role as money, while critics argue it would reject valid transactions and could split the network.

The debate has drawn reactions from Bitcoin developer Luke Dashjr, Blockstream CEO Adam Back, Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, Casa Chief Security Officer Jameson Lopp, and Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow.

“There are 110 things more dangerous to Bitcoin than spam. BIP 110 turns a spam dispute into a consensus change that would invalidate some currently valid, fee-paying transactions,” Saylor wrote on X. “That precedent is the danger. We should save our energy for threats that really matter.”

What would BIP-110 change?Bitcoin transactions can include more than payments. They can also carry text, images, token metadata, and other information through transaction scripts and witness data.

As a soft fork, BIP-110 would tighten Bitcoin's consensus rules by limiting several techniques used to embed that data. The proposal would limit most new transaction outputs to 34 bytes, restore an 83-byte limit for OP_RETURN outputs, cap certain witness elements at 256 bytes, and temporarily restrict several Taproot features commonly used for inscriptions. (Inscriptions are to Bitcoin what NFTs and other similar assets are to blockchain networks like Ethereum and Solana.)

Critics argue that BIP-110 would invalidate some transactions that are currently valid under Bitcoin's consensus rules and set a precedent for future protocol changes. In a February blog post, Jameson Lopp argued that BIP-110 would weaken two of Bitcoin's defining properties: censorship resistance and predictability.

“Bitcoin's strength lies in its censorship resistance and predictability,” Loop wrote. “BIP-110 signals that the protocol can be altered to censor subjectively ‘undesirable’ transactions, eroding its image as permissionless programmable money.”

BIP-110's mandatory signaling period begins in August, and so far, only 1% of miners have shown support for BIP-110, according to the proposal's monitoring dashboard.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back argued that Bitcoin's decentralized design prevents users from imposing their preferences on others and that its technical consensus process is intentionally resistant to change. While supporters are free to create their own fork, he wrote, "Bitcoin won't be joining it."

“Now the tough pill, which is unfortunately true,” Back wrote on X. “If you won't listen to reason, educate yourself, learn, the same radical freedom applies to you: your permissionless recourse is to club together and create a fork.”

The debate began with OrdinalsThe current dispute dates back to early 2023 with the launch of Ordinals, a protocol created by Bitcoin developer Casey Rodarmor that allows images, text, video, and other digital content to be inscribed directly onto individual satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin. Ordinals use features introduced by Bitcoin's SegWit and Taproot upgrades to create NFT-like assets directly on the Bitcoin blockchain.

As Ordinals and BRC-20 tokens gained popularity, demand for Bitcoin block space increased, pushing transaction fees higher. Supporters say those fees generated additional revenue for miners and strengthened Bitcoin's long-term security.

However, critics, including Dashjr, have argued that inscriptions exploit the Bitcoin network, describing them as spam rather than legitimate financial transactions.

Mow urges consensusIn an essay posted to X on Tuesday titled The Bitcoin Alliance, Samson Mow argued that Bitcoin participants should think of themselves as an alliance rather than a community, with developers, miners, companies, educators, and users each contributing to the network in different ways.

“During the Blocksize War, there was never this ‘if you're not with us, you're against us’ mentality on our side,” he wrote. “The small block camp never had to coerce anyone to join. We just all "got it" and were confident in our position.”

For reference, the Blocksize Wars (2015–2017) centered on whether Bitcoin should increase its 1 MB block size limit to process more transactions in a single block on the network. In the end, the "small block" camp won out, with "big blockers" forking off to create Bitcoin Cash in 2017 and later Bitcoin SV in 2018.

Mow wrote that he shares concerns about blockchain spam but opposes BIP-110 because he believes protocol changes require broad consensus. Mow also criticized Bitcoin Core developers for their handling of recent OP_RETURN policy changes, arguing that both sides contributed to escalating the dispute.

“The way they handled the OP_RETURN change was full of stupid mistakes, from banning people on GitHub to the ninja ACKs,” he wrote. “Any normal person could have predicted the reaction from the plebs. People store their time and value in Bitcoin. Anything that appears to threaten that will get people up in arms.”

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Bitcoin rose above the $65,000 mark on Wednesday after the latest US wholesale inflation data came in cooler than expected.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.3% in June from the previous month, marking its largest monthly decline since April 2025. On an annual basis, headline PPI dropped to 5.5%, below economists' expectations of 6.2%.

Core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also slowed to 4.7%, missing forecasts of 5.2%. The moderation reflected easing wholesale price pressure, particularly from lower energy and trade services costs.

The broader crypto market reacted positively to the inflation report, with Ethereum (ETH), XRP and Solana (SOL) rising 3%, 2% and 1.3%, respectively, following the release. The recovery in crypto also follows Tuesday's cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, giving investors two consecutive signs that inflationary pressure may be easing.

Bitcoin's sustained recovery hinges on Fed policy decision, easing global tensionsThe back-to-back releases have fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could maintain a less restrictive policy stance, according to Bitunix analyst Dean Chen.

"The latest US inflation data has changed the short-term market narrative, but it has not fully resolved the debate over monetary policy direction," Chen wrote in a Wednesday report.

The firm stated that much of June's inflation slowdown was driven by falling energy prices rather than broad-based disinflation. Energy prices declined 5.7% during the month, while gasoline prices fell 9.7%, providing relief to headline inflation.

However, prices of shelter, food and core services continued to rise, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressure remains.

Bitunix also highlighted a shift in the Fed's communication strategy, arguing that policymakers are placing greater emphasis on incoming economic data rather than providing explicit forward guidance.

"Individual economic releases are likely to carry greater market significance," the report stated, adding that inflation, employment and growth figures are expected to become increasingly important catalysts for financial markets.

Despite the improving inflation outlook, Bitunix cautioned that several macroeconomic risks could continue driving volatility across crypto markets. The firm noted that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could push energy prices higher and reignite inflation, while renewed concerns over Japan's Yen carry trade could tighten global liquidity and weigh on risk assets.

The report added that Bitcoin's longer-term direction will depend on whether inflation continues to moderate. It also hinges on whether the Fed maintains its data-dependent policy approach and if global liquidity conditions remain supportive.

"Bitcoin sentiment has improved after the CPI release, but future price action will depend on Fed policy signals, inflation trends, and broader risk appetite," Chen stated.

Trump to meet with senators to discuss Clarity ActAdditionally, a report of President Donald Trump meeting with senators in the White House to discuss the Clarity Act is also improving market sentiment.

According to Politico, Sen. Bernie Moreno said senators will update the President concerning the bill’s progress and its “path to success.”

While lawmakers are pushing to pass the bill before the August recess, a few Democratic senators want an ethics provision included in the landmark crypto bill, especially after Trump disclosed earnings of over a billion dollars from crypto-related affiliations. The move will prevent senior government officials from having business interests in crypto platforms.

Bitcoin is trading at $65,020, up 0.6% over the past 24 hours at the time of writing.

Bitcoin ATMs have become an increasingly visible target for regulators concerned about cryptocurrency-related fraud, with several states moving to restrict or ban the machines outright. But the companies operating those networks argue policymakers are focusing on the wrong part of the financial system.

For Paul Tarantino, CEO of Byte Federal, the debate extends far beyond cryptocurrency speculation. He sees Bitcoin ATMs as financial infrastructure serving millions of Americans who remain outside—or only partially connected to—the traditional banking system.

"Bitcoin ATMs are a physical cash on-ramp into the digital financial system," Tarantino said in an interview. "Infrastructure matters enormously when you're trying to serve the millions of Americans who are unbanked or underbanked."

Byte Federal operates one of the nation's largest Bitcoin ATM networks, with more than 1,400 locations across the U.S. and Australia. The kiosks allow consumers to convert cash into Bitcoin and other digital assets after completing identity verification and compliance screening.

A Different Customer Than Many AssumeWhile cryptocurrency often carries an image of sophisticated traders and speculative investors, Tarantino says Byte Federal's typical customer looks very different.

According to company transaction data, many users are working-class consumers, small-business owners and first-time cryptocurrency buyers who prefer using cash or have limited access to conventional banking services. Byte Federal says its median transaction is approximately $300 and that most purchases are relatively modest.

The company also reports that customer activity spikes on Fridays—when many workers receive paychecks—and that significant transaction volume occurs overnight and on weekends when banks are closed.

Those patterns, Tarantino argues, suggest Bitcoin ATMs serve a practical function rather than simply facilitating speculative trading.

"Our customers look a lot more like Main Street than Wall Street," he said.

The Inclusion DebateThe industry has long argued that cryptocurrency can improve financial inclusion by giving consumers without traditional banking relationships access to digital financial services.

Bitcoin ATM operators say physical kiosks remove several barriers associated with online exchanges, including linking bank accounts, navigating trading platforms or maintaining constant internet access.

Byte Federal says customers still undergo identity verification, sanctions screening, Know Your Customer (KYC) checks and anti-money laundering compliance before completing transactions.

Tarantino contends that the physical presence of a kiosk also creates trust among consumers unfamiliar with digital finance.

"People see the machine, receive a receipt and interact with a regulated company," he said. "That physicality matters for many first-time users."

Growing Regulatory ScrutinyDespite those arguments, Bitcoin ATMs have increasingly drawn attention from lawmakers and consumer advocates after numerous scams directed victims to deposit cash into cryptocurrency through kiosk networks.

Several states have enacted restrictions or outright bans, citing fraud concerns and the growing number of reported losses involving cryptocurrency payments.

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Tarantino argues regulators are incorrectly treating Bitcoin ATMs as the origin of fraud rather than the final step in much larger scams.

"The scam typically begins with a phone call," he said, pointing to telecom-based impersonation schemes that convince victims to move money before directing them to various payment methods, including cryptocurrency.

According to Tarantino, removing Bitcoin ATMs does little to eliminate fraud because criminals simply redirect victims toward alternative payment channels such as wire transfers, gift cards or cash-by-mail schemes.

"The scammer doesn't disappear," he said. "The payment method changes."

Compliance Becoming a Competitive AdvantageThe regulatory debate has also accelerated investment in compliance infrastructure among larger operators.

Byte Federal says every customer completes identity verification before using its machines. The company also employs transaction monitoring, blockchain analytics and additional protections for older users, including live phone calls with customers over age 60 before certain transactions are approved.

According to Byte Federal's chief compliance officer, those interventions prevent a substantial share of suspected elder fraud attempts before transactions are completed.

The company says it supports industry-wide standards including stronger KYC requirements, mandatory scam warnings and expanded cooperation with law enforcement.

From Tarantino's perspective, compliance is becoming one of the industry's primary competitive differentiators.

"As regulation matures, the companies that invested early in compliance will have a significant advantage," he said. "What some operators see as a cost, we see as a moat."

Beyond Bitcoin KiosksEven as mobile cryptocurrency apps and stablecoins become more common, Tarantino believes physical infrastructure will continue to play a role in digital finance.

Rather than viewing Bitcoin ATMs as standalone machines, he sees them evolving into broader financial service hubs capable of supporting remittances, bill payments, digital wallets and other blockchain-enabled services.

Byte Federal has already expanded beyond ATMs through products including ByteWallet, a self-custodied digital wallet, and ByteConnect, a merchant payments platform that enables businesses to accept Bitcoin.

"The ATM is not the destination," Tarantino said. "It's the entry point."

Whether regulators ultimately embrace that vision remains uncertain. What is clear is that the debate surrounding Bitcoin ATMs has become increasingly representative of the broader tension between expanding access to digital financial services and protecting consumers from rapidly evolving forms of fraud.

As lawmakers continue weighing restrictions, the industry's future may depend less on cryptocurrency itself than on whether operators can demonstrate that physical access, financial inclusion and rigorous compliance can successfully coexist.

Researchers at Stanford University and Singapore Management University found that Polymarket’s five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets create incentives for traders to manipulate spot prices around settlement, allowing sophisticated participants to profit at the expense of retail traders.

The study examined contracts in which traders bet on whether Bitcoin’s price would end above or below a predetermined level after five minutes. Because the contracts settle using Chainlink price feeds based on Bitcoin’s price at the end of each trading window, traders have an incentive to influence the spot market immediately before settlement.

Analyzing trading activity before and after Polymarket introduced the contracts in July 2024, the researchers found sharp increases in Bitcoin spot-market order flow just before settlement, followed by rapid price reversals, which were consistent with settlement-price manipulation.

The study estimated that the behavior transferred about $1.28 million from ordinary traders to manipulators during the sample period. The researchers said extending contract durations from five minutes to 15 minutes largely eliminated the effect.

The researchers said the results do not indicate prediction markets are inherently vulnerable to manipulation, arguing instead that settlement design can reduce the risk. They pointed to longer settlement windows and alternative pricing methods, such as time-weighted average prices, as potential solutions.

The findings could extend beyond crypto. The paper notes that traditional exchanges, including Nasdaq and Cboe, have proposed event contracts tied to asset prices, making contract design an increasingly important consideration as prediction markets expand into regulated financial markets. 

World Cup fuels prediction market growthPrediction markets posted record trading volumes in June as the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup fueled activity across the sector. According to DefiLlama data, Kalshi processed about $9.4 billion in trading volume during the month, while Polymarket International handled roughly $4.3 billion.

The platforms’ World Cup winner markets have since generated more than $5.4 billion in combined trading volume, with Polymarket processing about $4.25 billion and Kalshi about $1.2 billion, according to data from the two platforms at the time of writing.

World Cup winner bets on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket

The sector’s growth has coincided with mounting legal scrutiny. Several US states have challenged companies, including Kalshi and Polymarket, this year, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has argued that federally regulated event contracts fall under its “exclusive jurisdiction” rather than state gambling laws.

The dispute is now moving through the federal courts, and legal observers have said conflicting appellate rulings could eventually prompt the US Supreme Court to decide whether states or the CFTC have primary authority over prediction markets.

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