Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Bitcoin trades near $77,250 three days before the Federal Reserve decides on interest rates, with futures markets pricing an 86.5% chance of a quarter-point hike on Wednesday.

Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long argues the bigger shift sits elsewhere. She says the Treasury Department, not the Fed, now sets the terms for digital dollars.

Rate Hike/Cut Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch ToolThe Fed Still Owns the Next Three DaysChair Kevin Warsh delivers the decision on September 16, nearly four months after being sworn in. Prediction markets aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket price the same hike above 80%.

Friday’s inflation report did most of the damage. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August after a 0.1% gain in July, lifting the annual rate to 3.4%.

The committee already looks split. It held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, but three officials dissented and wanted an increase then.

Bitcoin has already surrendered part of its recent run. Fed hike odds sat at 50/50 on September 4, when BeInCrypto reported BTC climbing toward $82,000.

Those odds have risen steadily since. BTC now trades several thousand dollars lower and was roughly flat over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoTreasury Has Already Moved These Markets OnceThe headline question has a precedent. Ten-year and thirty-year yields hit twenty-year highs in August, and Treasury answered on August 19 by doubling its longer-dated buybacks to $4 billion per operation.

Yields dropped on the news. They rebounded within days and wiped out the move.

That program is running right now, between September 9 and November 4. Secretary Scott Bessent could fund it from a Treasury General Account holding close to $1 trillion.

UBS strategists argued this month that the useful question is not whether the Fed moves. It is the conditions the Fed moves into, and those conditions are being set at the long end of the bond market.

Why Long Says the Fed Is Losing the Longer FightLong sees the same handover in rulemaking. The GENIUS Act, the 2025 law governing dollar-pegged stablecoins, takes effect on January 18, 2027. Treasury and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) have published proposed rules. The Fed has not.

“There’s no question Treasury is taking a lot more power from the Fed,” Caitlin Long, CEO of Custodia Bank, said in an interview.

Treasury has also claimed the power to decide which foreign stablecoins reach American markets. Long expects tokenized deposits, meaning bank dollars that move on blockchain rails, to squeeze out stablecoins. US banking groups warned of deposit flight when the law passed.

Wednesday answers the rate question. Whether Treasury can hold the long end, and who ends up writing the digital-dollar rules, runs deep into 2027.

Bitcoin is trading close to $76,700 after declining 0.8% in the past 24 hours, with price action confined to the narrow $76,000 to $80,000 range. Traders are focused on whether the leading cryptocurrency can overcome key resistance and regain momentum after recent losses.

Weekly resistance remains crucialMarket analysts have identified $78,300 as a critical weekly resistance level. This area, outlined by Rekt Capital, has consistently held back price advances over recent sessions. A weekly close above $78,300 could reduce the risk of Bitcoin repeating the bearish structure seen in May 2026, when the price similarly failed to break above an equivalent resistance.

As sellers remain active near this resistance, the broader supply zone is located higher, spanning from $81,700 to $83,000. Analysts see these levels as the main obstacles preventing a decisive bullish shift in Bitcoin’s trend. For now, Bitcoin must first secure a close above $78,300 before targeting this upper range.

On the downside, attention remains on the lower band of trading activity. Michaël van de Poppe pointed to $74,500 as a point of buyer interest, while a nearby liquidity cluster sits around $75,000. If these levels fail to attract sustained demand, technical analysis indicates support next at $64,000 and $60,000, with additional buying zones between $62,000 and $64,000.

A successful weekly close above $78,300 could give Bitcoin a chance to escape its current sideways structure, while repeated failure raises the risk of another dip toward key support zones already highlighted by technical analysts.

Spot selling and open interest weigh on sentimentSpot market selling has persisted as Bitcoin hovers above support, with cumulative volume delta at a one-month low. Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives has started rising again as leveraged positions increase, signaling heightened speculative activity even as spot demand lags.

Ted observed that Bitcoin’s inability to recover resistance may tip sellers back into control if the current weekly close remains weak. This assessment follows a stretch in which price failed to regain the $78,300 resistance area.

Recent spot Bitcoin ETF flows, however, have shown some improvement. One recent trading session posted inflows above previous weeks, but this has yet to translate into a sustainable price recovery. Analysts warn that a single strong ETF session does not establish a trend, and more persistent spot buying would be necessary to support higher prices.

Further upside for Bitcoin requires reclaiming multiple resistance levels. The initial focus is on $78,300, with a move beyond $81,700 to $83,000 needed to break the current short-term bearish structure. Crypto Patel recently identified the $82,000 to $83,000 range as a crucial daily resistance limiting the broader trend change.

Technical momentum remains limited as long as Bitcoin trades below $83,000, keeping the prevailing daily structure tilted bearish. Only a sustained move above this range would threaten the sequence of lower highs restricting a more extended rally.

Macro focus and new tools for tradersLooking ahead, market participants are paying close attention to the Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 15–16, as risk assets often respond to shifts in rate guidance. In such an environment, where a single Fed move or a new altcoin listing can drive rapid change, fast market access is crucial. Many traders are now turning to privacy-focused platforms like CryptoAppsy to manage real-time charts, receive smart price alerts, read targeted coin news, and track macro data conveniently on one screen, all without mandatory accounts. This consolidated approach is gaining momentum as traders seek to minimize lost opportunities from using multiple disconnected apps.

As Bitcoin trades between support near $75,000 and resistance from $78,300 upwards, buyers must reclaim these key levels in sequence to spark a potential push towards the $82,000 mark.

Bitcoin has reached a new milestone in its long-term price foundations, as its widely watched 200-week moving average (200WMA) climbed above $65,000. This key support level, calculated over the span of four years, is now at its highest point ever recorded.

Long-term trends signal stronger price supportAdam Back, CEO of Blockstream—a leading blockchain technology company—highlighted the significance of this development by sharing updated market data sourced from Look Into Bitcoin. The 200WMA rose from $64,000 in August to its new peak in just one month, surpassing the $65,000 mark.

The 200WMA, which smooths out volatility by averaging Bitcoin prices across four years, is often considered a critical indicator for identifying the cryptocurrency’s long-term trajectory. Analysts frequently reference this moving average as Bitcoin’s enduring price “floor,” as periods below this level have historically been limited to brief intervals during significant global downturns.

This latest upward movement in the 200WMA suggests that Bitcoin’s baseline structural value is strengthening at a faster pace than in prior market cycles. Adam Back and other advocates of this indicator assert that, mathematically, the likelihood of Bitcoin trading below $65,000 for an extended period is decreasing. The continuous growth of this “floor” level is drawing attention among long-term investors and traders alike.

Mini dictionary: 200-week moving average (200WMA), a technical analysis indicator that tracks the average closing price of an asset over the past 200 weeks, commonly used to identify long-term market trends and key support or resistance levels.

Spot market consolidates above historical benchmarksAt present, Bitcoin is trading between $76,000 and $77,000, well above the newly established 200WMA. This sizable gap between the spot price and the moving average indicates that buyers continue to absorb selling pressure even at premium prices relative to historical support.

The widening buffer above the 200WMA mirrors investment philosophies such as Charlie Munger’s approach to owning leading assets at fair value, signifying growing confidence among long-term Bitcoin holders. Market observers note that with the 200WMA advancing rapidly, the probability of Bitcoin returning to lower support areas, such as $60,000 or $64,000, continues to diminish in the context of this ongoing market cycle.

Investors will be closely monitoring whether the 200WMA’s positive momentum persists, which could provide further foundation for Bitcoin’s stability at its current range and reinforce bullish sentiment among participants.

IndicatorLevel (August)Current Level200WMA$64,000$65,000+Spot Price Range—$76,000–$77,000 The 200-week moving average, a benchmark reached only by sustained price strength, has now set a new historical high above $65,000, representing a significant increase over the previous month and reinforcing Bitcoin’s strengthening long-term support.

Key Takeaways Futures markets indicate an 80% to 85% probability the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis point interest rate increase on Wednesday Retail sales figures for August will be released Wednesday morning, potentially influencing monetary policy expectations Crude oil surged past $100 per barrel following drone strikes that disabled a critical Saudi pipeline, intensifying inflation worries The yield on 10-year Treasury notes approached 5%, creating headwinds for equities and interest rate-sensitive investments Salesforce begins its Dreamforce event on Tuesday, featuring Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei among scheduled presenters Wall Street’s attention turns squarely to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week. The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Tuesday, with the rate announcement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon at 2 p.m. ET.

Source: Forex Factory Market participants are assigning approximately an 80% to 85% likelihood to a quarter-point rate adjustment. These odds intensified following robust employment reports and persistent inflation readings well above the central bank’s 2% objective.

The August Consumer Price Index showed a 3.4% annual increase, identical to July’s figure. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index revealed wholesale inflation exceeded forecasts.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to address the media at 2:30 p.m. ET following Wednesday’s announcement. Market participants will scrutinize his remarks for indications regarding the trajectory of monetary policy.

While a standalone rate adjustment might not significantly disturb markets, any suggestion from Warsh of additional tightening ahead could trigger selling in technology shares and sectors vulnerable to borrowing costs.

Yields on 10-year Treasury securities approached the 5% threshold during the previous week. This bond market movement has already created challenges for equities, especially high-valuation technology enterprises.

Consumer Spending and Energy Markets Complicate Outlook Prior to the Fed’s announcement, the Census Bureau will publish retail sales statistics for August at 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday. Consumer expenditures declined 0.6% between June and July on a non-inflation-adjusted basis.

Surprisingly, robust consumer activity could prove detrimental to equities. Such data might reinforce the Fed’s rationale for continued monetary tightening.

Conversely, disappointing numbers might relieve bond market tensions but spark questions about whether elevated prices are constraining household budgets. Regardless of the outcome, Wednesday appears positioned to deliver the week’s most significant market swings.

Oil prices represent an additional wildcard. Crude prices jumped beyond $100 per barrel, driven by escalating Middle Eastern instability.

An important Saudi pipeline transporting approximately 4 million barrels daily was taken offline following drone assaults. This supply interruption may sustain elevated energy costs for an extended period.

Elevated crude prices amplify inflationary pressures, creating additional complexity for Fed policymakers. Energy sector equities stand to gain, whereas airlines and consumer-facing businesses confront mounting operational expenses.

Salesforce Conference and Corporate Earnings in Focus Salesforce launches its annual Dreamforce gathering on Tuesday. Chief Executive Marc Benioff will deliver the primary presentation from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. ET, emphasizing artificial intelligence partnerships.

Dario Amodei, who leads Anthropic, appears on the Dreamforce agenda. Whether he joins Benioff’s keynote or presents independently remains unconfirmed.

The company has also scheduled an investor and analyst briefing during the conference on Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET.

Regarding quarterly results, homebuilder Lennar releases earnings Wednesday following the closing bell. Elevated mortgage rates have created challenging conditions in residential real estate, making the company’s order activity and forward guidance particularly significant.

Carnival posts results Thursday, offering insight into consumer appetite for travel spending. Thursday also brings weekly unemployment claims and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey.

E-Mini S&P 500 Sep 26 (ES=F) Equity markets concluded the previous week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 1.6%, while the S&P 500 maintains approximately 12% gains year-to-date.

The Federal Reserve’s forward guidance on its policy path will probably carry greater weight than Wednesday’s immediate decision.

CROWDFUNDINSIDER: Bitcoin Treasury Firm Metaplanet Cuts Executive Option Pool by 41% and Scraps Employee Warrant Plan After Shareholder Pushback

Kevin O’Leary’s next investment target is neither Bitcoin (BTC) nor stocks. The Shark Tank host wants about 5% of his portfolio in rare sports cards, and his group just paid $11 million for one.

The card carries pieces of Shohei Ohtani’s game-worn jersey, and only one exists. A Florida teenager found it in a Boca Raton shop. O’Leary announced the purchase on CNBC last Tuesday.

Why Kevin O’Leary’s Investment Case Starts With the Money SupplyO’Leary defends the cards the way Bitcoin holders defend Bitcoin. US M2 money supply hit $23.22 trillion in July, and he wants assets no central bank can print more of.

I see sports collectibles as an alternative asset class.

My strategy is simple. Own many of the very best cards, diversify across them like an index, and let the portfolio compound over time. I want about 5% of my portfolio exposed to this category.

The challenge is that when… pic.twitter.com/jDZt7iHAnD

— Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful (@kevinolearytv) September 9, 2026 He buys through Secure Collectibles alongside collector Shyne and entrepreneur Paul Warshaw. The group labels its holdings the WonderShyne Index and has spent roughly $100 million so far.

That reasoning borrows directly from the debasement-trade narrative that has shaped Bitcoin demand all year.

What the Index Does Not ShowO’Leary picks the cards and also writes the entry rules. He says the index holds no losers, which is easy to claim when the curator decides what qualifies.

The gains remain on paper. Card Ladder marks his $12.93 million Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant card at nearly $17.05 million, yet he has said he will never sell it.

A one-of-a-kind card has exactly one bidder on the day it matters. His crypto book is thinner but far easier to exit.

BeInCrypto reported in September 2025 that he had cut down to three crypto positions, a read that held up when he confirmed in April that Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) cover 90% of that exposure.

Whether outsiders will ever be able to buy into the index remains unanswered. O’Leary has hinted at public access and confirmed nothing.

Pi Network price surged above $0.097, nearing $0.10 after gaining nearly 10% over the past month. The token traded around $0.0975 on Sunday as traders watched a September 15 network upgrade.

The broader crypto market was in a range even as US inflation increased and the Federal Reserve was expected to raise the rate. 

Bitcoin price was trading at around $76,654, and Ethereum price was at $2,482 as analysts predict $3k. BNB was trading at approximately $717, and XRP was trading at approximately $1.35. The value of total crypto market dropped 1.13% in 24 hours to $2.61 trillion.

Will Protocol v27 Upgrade Trigger Pi Coin Rally? After completing Protocol 26 on Mainnet, Pi Network moved Protocol 27 into Testnet. The upgrade of the Mainnet is planned to be completed in September 15, but this is a tentative date.

Protocol 27 brings more liberal smart contract authentication of accounts and applications. Those controls could be used to develop more complex transaction approvals and services by developers. 

Following the successful completion of the Protocol 26 upgrade on Pi Mainnet, Pi Testnet is upgrading to Protocol 27!

Protocol 27 introduces more flexible and secure smart contract authentication capabilities, enabling more advanced ways for accounts and applications to… pic.twitter.com/Qb5Id092Ln

— Pi Network (@PiCoreTeam) August 21, 2026

The changes increase the network capabilities, yet they do not imply instant application launches. It completes the immediate upgrade process by Pi.

The upgrade to version 27.1 will require node operators to upgrade to version 27.1 to remain connected. Regular users or mobile miners do not have to alter their account or mining procedures. There are unverified claims that all the pending features would be made available as soon as September 15.

Fed Decision and CLARITY Act Add Pressure The Federal Open Market Committee sits September 15-16, putting monetary policy and the technical milestone of Pi on the same page. August consumer and producer prices each rose 0.4%, strengthening market bets on higher borrowing costs. 

CME FedWatch estimated the likelihood of a rate hike to about 87% before the meeting. An increase in rates may undermine interest in risky investments, even when individual projects are reporting good news.

The CLARITY Act also has a procedural test of the Senate on September 15. The action aims at having a better supervision of the digital resources; however, this vote can only decide whether the debate can progress. A positive vote would help to have a positive mood, and failure would increase regulatory uncertainty.

For broader momentum, Bitcoin price would need to defend $75,500 and Ethereum price $2,350.

Will Pi Network Price Rally Above $0.12 This Week? Pi Network price first needs a sustained move above $0.10, its nearest psychological barrier. Rebounds have been recurring at that level, and a daily close above that level would be more significant than a short spike.

In case of an increase in trading volume, there are intermediate points of $0.105 and $0.11, and then there is $0.12. 

It would take a move of approximately 23% to reach an advance of $0.12 from $0.0975, as per the Pi Coin price outlook for the long term. The upgrade might provide a catalyst, but the future of gains might depend on the wider market conditions.

PI/USDT 4-hour chart: TradingView Initial support sits around $0.095, followed by $0.093 and $0.09. A drop below $0.09 would weaken the recovery case and expose lower levels. The following two days should make it clear whether the network upgrade will receive long-term demand or a short-lived response.

THE BLOCK: Symbiosis says it recovered 15 BTC after Bitcoin bridge exploit, offers attacker 20% bounty

CRCL Stock Outlook as Fed Odds Hit 86%: Bulls or Bears?

U.S. Democrats to hold a meeting on Tuesday to discuss AI legislative actions.

According to Bloomberg, U.S. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said House Democrats plan to hold a caucus meeting Tuesday morning to discuss legislative actions related to artificial intelligence, noting that addressing the challenges posed by AI is a "top priority" and requires urgent action. Jeffries added that Democrats are internally debating how to establish regulatory and safety "guardrails" in response to the industry’s rapid growth and potential risks.

6 hours ago

Data: If the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates by another 75 basis points, annual interest costs on short-term Treasuries alone will rise by approximately $500 billion.

The US currently has approximately $7 trillion in short-term Treasury securities outstanding, with around $6.1 trillion set to mature within one year. Including other maturing Treasury instruments, roughly $7.5 trillion in tradable US government debt will need refinancing in 2026, while another $4 trillion and $3.5 trillion will mature in 2027 and 2028 respectively. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by an additional 75 basis points, annual interest expenses on short-term Treasuries alone could rise by about $50 billion, equivalent to 0.15% of GDP. Additionally, most of these Treasuries will be refinanced at market rates higher than their original issuance rates, meaning the US is facing a round of far more expensive large-scale refinancing.

6 hours ago

Arthur Hayes: The AI-first endgame will inevitably lead to liquidity release, with risk assets set to benefit.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has stated that any gap in AI computing power demand will ultimately be covered by money printing. The current so-called "AI safety first" framework essentially boils down to two paths: The first is that the U.S. government steps in, taking over the roles of Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX as the primary buyer of computing power, and sustaining data center and chip orders. The second is that these buyers vanish, triggering a collapse in AI-linked debts—with insurance companies bearing the initial brunt, and if they cannot absorb the losses, the Federal Reserve will step in to bail them out via money printing. Hayes concludes that either path results in money printing: whether through fiscal or monetary channels, liquidity will be unleashed, and risk assets will ultimately benefit.

6 hours ago

Viewpoint: Bitcoin has not hit a new high in nearly a year, and the historical pattern of quickly rallying to new highs after halving is now failing.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin has not hit a new all-time high in nearly a year. As of now, it has been roughly 342 days since the last all-time high, approaching a full year. In previous cycles, Bitcoin would reach a new all-time high shortly after a halving, but this cycle’s pace has slowed. The next halving is expected around April 2028. Additionally, the interval between the previous cycle’s peak and the next all-time high has been shrinking: 1,180 days between 2014–2017, 1,094 days between 2017–2020, and 849 days between 2021–2024. Based on this trend, Darkfost inferred that if the shortening trend continues, even though Bitcoin has taken a year to break its prior all-time high this cycle, the new high may arrive faster than in previous cycles—there is no need to wait until 2028 under the old template of hitting a new high immediately after a halving. The cycle template is becoming less relevant, but the interval between new highs is shrinking and a new high is inevitable.

6 hours ago

Arthur Hayes: The AI-first endgame will inevitably lead to liquidity release, with risk assets set to benefit.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has stated that if a gap in AI computing power demand emerges, the final resort will be money printing. The so-called "AI safety first" framework currently boils down to only two possible paths: The first is the U.S. government stepping in to take over the roles of Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, continuing as a major purchaser of computing power to sustain data center and chip orders. The second is these buyers vanishing, triggering a blowup in AI-linked debt—with insurance companies absorbing the losses first, and if they cannot withstand the burden, the Federal Reserve will step in to bail them out via money printing. Hayes concludes that either path results in the same outcome: money printing is unavoidable, whether through fiscal or monetary channels, liquidity will be released, and risk assets will ultimately benefit.

6 hours ago

Lobster’s market cap briefly surged past $180 million to a new all-time high, up 12.7% in 24 hours.

According to GMGN market data, the Chinese Meme coin Lobster saw its market cap briefly surge past $180 million today, hitting an all-time high. It has a 24-hour price increase of 12.7%, with a current market cap of $146 million and 24-hour trading volume of $16.3 million. BlockBeats reminds users that related tokens are highly volatile, so investors should exercise caution.

6 hours ago

This week in the cryptocurrency world was nothing short of eventful. From Bitcoin’s comparison to gold to Dogecoin’s potential rebound, the crypto market kept investors on their toes. Here’s a quick recap of the top stories that made headlines.

Bitcoin: Not Quite Gold, But That’s OkayBitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan shared his perspective on Bitcoin during the Forward Guidance podcast. He argued that Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is not as straightforward as many investors believe. Instead, Bitcoin behaves as a unique asset, not moving for just one reason at a time.

Read the full article here.

Dogecoin: Ready for a Rebound?

Leading cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez suggested that Dogecoin might be nearing the end of its recent downtrend. Martinez pointed to a TD Sequential “Buy” signal on DOGE’s 4-hour chart, indicating a potential price reversal.

Read the full article here.

Tim Draper’s Bold Bitcoin Prediction

Billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper expects Bitcoin to hit $250,000 within two years. Draper believes that growing adoption, AI, and fewer financial intermediaries will drive this surge.

Read Next

Read the full article here.

Crypto Scam Mastermind Pleads Guilty

A Miami resident, Malone Lam, pleaded guilty to his role in a cybercrime conspiracy that stole and laundered more than $245 million in cryptocurrency. The scheme operated through online gaming platforms from October 2023 until at least May 2025.

Trending

Read the full article here.

Bitcoin Defies Fed Hike Fears

Bitcoin showed resilience to rising interest rate expectations, with Wintermute Research suggesting that capital may be rotating from exhausted equity trades into crypto. Despite a brief dip after a strong U.S. jobs report, Bitcoin ended the week 3.45% higher.

Read the full article here.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Image via Shutterstock

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11h05 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by Ghiles A.

Summarize this article with:

The crypto market enters a new phase of uncertainty as Goldman Sachs revises its monetary scenario. The American bank now forecasts a Fed rate hike next week, following stronger-than-expected core inflation in August. This change comes as bitcoin trades below $80,000. Investors have adjusted their expectations, with the probability of a hike now approaching 90%. The September decision could impact market reactions.

In brief Goldman Sachs now expects a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September. U.S. core inflation reached 0.3% in August, against 0.2% expected. The probability of a rate hike now exceeds 86%, according to CME FedWatch. Bitcoin remains below $80,000 despite a favorable technical signal on the daily chart. Bitcoin’s “golden cross” ultimately failed to hold through the close. Goldman Sachs abandons its status quo scenario On July 31, Goldman Sachs defended the hypothesis of a Fed without change until the end of 2026. The bank then estimated that rates would remain stable, with monthly core inflation likely to slow. However, new data led its analysts to revise this forecast.

Now, the team led by David Mericle anticipates a 25 basis point hike at the September 16 meeting. The FOMC could raise its federal funds target range from 3.50% to 3.75%. JPMorgan, Citigroup, Mitsubishi UFJ, and TD Securities also share this outlook.

In this context, the bitcoin price trades below $80,000 while markets factor in a different monetary environment. The Wall Street Journal reports that investors almost consider a rate hike next week a given. Attention thus shifts to the path of rates after this possible decision.

August inflation changes expectations The trigger comes from the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. This indicator, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-over-month, against 0.2% expected. This difference took on particular importance in expectations for September.

Before the release, analysts associated 0.2% with rate maintenance. Conversely, a 0.3% result was expected to strengthen the case for a hike. The data thus provided the expected signal to quickly shift positions. Bitcoin is therefore facing higher rate expectations.

The CME FedWatch tool initially assessed the probability of a 25 basis point hike at about 69%. After publication, this estimate rose to 86.5% during the session. Since then, overall market expectations are approaching 90%, showing the rapid effect of the inflation figure.

Several signals had prepared the ground However, the September hike is not solely based on inflation. In August, Chase already pointed out that slower normalization of supply chains around the Strait of Hormuz could facilitate intervention. The institution also mentioned markets’ doubts about the Fed’s credibility in fighting inflation.

Goldman Sachs now joins several institutions considering a tighter decision. Bitcoin is no longer just questioning if the Fed can raise rates. It is also trying to determine what this decision will imply for the rest of monetary policy.

For bitcoin, this transition occurs while the price remains below $80,000. The context does not provide a clear signal to anticipate a reaction. Upcoming indications will mainly depend on the FOMC decision and expectations built around rates.

The bitcoin chart sends an unfinished signal However, the market showed an intriguing technical sign the same day. On the daily chart, the 50-day EMA briefly crossed above the 200-day EMA. Traders call this crossover a “golden cross” and use it as a potential signal of a trend change. However, the signal did not hold until the close.

On the 4-hour chart, another “golden cross” has remained visible since late August. The trend also retains significant strength on the daily unit, with an ADX at 45. However, the expected technical confirmation did not come at the close. Bitcoin thus remains a focus in view of monetary expectations.

The upcoming FOMC meeting will therefore be the key date for markets. If the 25 basis point hike is confirmed, investors will watch for indications about the course of monetary policy. In the short term, bitcoin could continue evolving in line with monetary expectations and technical signals. Sustained crossing above $80,000 will then depend on how the market integrates this new scenario.

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Ghiles A.

Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Garrett Jin: Bitcoin bulls are in an unfavorable position; the longer the bottom-digging market lasts, the higher the likelihood of breaking the support level.

Agent of the "BTC OG Insider Whale" Garrett Jin released a market outlook, stating that Bitcoin bulls are currently in an unfavorable position. BTC has been stuck above the $76,500 level, and he is not keen on this grinding bottom market. The longer this consolidation lasts, the more likely it is that this support level will be broken, leading BTC to seek a lower support rather than reversing immediately. For Bitcoin to look stronger, it must first reclaim and hold above the $78,300 level at minimum.

36 minutes ago

Amp removes platform access barriers: Run Coding Agent for free using only ChatGPT and a computer

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Cathie Wood strongly supports David Sacks’ view: Reports claiming “AI will destroy humanity” are orchestrated.

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An address associated with the LSK project team deposited 3.29 million LSK tokens into Binance 5 hours ago, valued at $3.79 million.

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36 minutes ago

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Key Points The Zug-based crypto financial services firm may eliminate as many as 60 positions from its 120-person Swiss workforce Operations including back-office functions and software development will transition to Bratislava and a new Vietnamese location Bitcoin Suisse’s Copenhagen IT development facility will be shuttered Employee consultations continue through September 20, with final workforce decisions pending Leadership attributes the restructuring to strategic expansion and cost optimization rather than market conditions Bitcoin Suisse, a cryptocurrency financial services provider established in Zug in 2013, has revealed intentions to eliminate as many as 60 of its 120 Switzerland-based roles in a strategic reorganization designed to broaden its international presence.

JUST IN: Swiss crypto firm Bitcoin Suisse plans to cut up to half of its workforce.

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) September 11, 2026

With approximately 200 employees worldwide, the maximum proposed reductions would leave Bitcoin Suisse with roughly 60 staff members in Switzerland.

An employee consultation period is currently in progress and will continue through September 20. Swiss employment regulations permit affected workers to present alternative proposals during this timeframe that may minimize or prevent terminations ahead of any final determinations.

Operations Shifting to More Affordable Markets The positions under consideration for elimination primarily encompass back-office, administrative, and software engineering roles. According to Bitcoin Suisse, these functions will be centralized at its international facilities in Bratislava, Slovakia, and a forthcoming Vietnamese office.

Details regarding the precise Vietnamese location, launch timeline, and associated capital investment have not been revealed by the company.

As part of this operational realignment, Bitcoin Suisse will shutter its Copenhagen-based IT development center, effectively ending its presence in Denmark.

Chief Executive Andrej Majcen indicated that operational expenses in these two expansion markets would be substantially lower compared to Switzerland. In comments to Swiss financial outlet Finews, he emphasized that the reorganization stemmed from strategic objectives rather than cryptocurrency market volatility.

Premium Services to Remain Swiss-Based Notwithstanding the workforce reductions, Bitcoin Suisse intends to maintain its Zug headquarters. Client-focused wealth management operations will continue to be concentrated in Switzerland.

The organization positions this transformation as an evolution from a predominantly Swiss-centered crypto operation into a globally diversified financial services enterprise.

This past June, Bitcoin Suisse announced its focus on institutional investors, family offices, asset management firms, and ultra-high-net-worth clients as it develops its worldwide wealth management capabilities.

The firm currently safeguards 3 billion Swiss francs in cryptocurrency assets and reported equity of 95 million Swiss francs as of January 2026.

Earlier this year, Bitcoin Suisse obtained regulatory licenses in both Liechtenstein and Bermuda. Its Middle Eastern division secured complete regulatory authorization in Abu Dhabi during July, enabling it to provide trading, custody, staking, and lending products.

In 2021, the company pursued a Swiss banking license but ultimately abandoned the application after Switzerland’s Financial Market Supervisory Authority signaled that approval was improbable, pointing to deficiencies in the firm’s anti-money laundering framework.

Bitcoin Suisse has assured stakeholders that the workforce adjustments will not impact client services, including custody solutions, trading platforms, staking programs, or lending products. The announcement pertains exclusively to personnel matters and the reorganization of support and technical operations.

Definitive decisions regarding the scope and allocation of affected roles will be announced following the conclusion of the September 20 consultation period.

Bitcoin is encountering significant resistance at the $83,000 to $85,000 price range, with market experts highlighting that the pullback does not yet confirm a bearish trend reversal. Both on-chain and technical indicators suggest that supply from long-term holders and subdued demand are shaping the current price dynamics.

Overhead supply creates resistance zoneOn-chain analytics firm Glassnode revealed that Bitcoin remains below a dense cluster built by long-term holders, with their average cost basis concentrated between $83,000 and $85,000. This region has become a pronounced supply barrier after Bitcoin reached $82,000 earlier in September but failed to break through.

Glassnode’s latest research places broader resistance between $83,000 and $86,000. This band combines the long-term holder cost basis with important liquidation levels and break-even prices from institutional Bitcoin ETF participants. Bitcoin recently approached within 1.5% of this zone before facing a loss of momentum.

The analytics firm estimates around 1.07 million BTC were acquired in this region, with heavy accumulation at about $85,000. Most of these coins belong to long-term holders who could act as a source of supply if Bitcoin’s price returns to their cost basis. Despite this, Glassnode observed that selling from these addresses has remained light, indicating that a major distribution phase is not yet underway.

Market research from Glassnode notes that the supply purchased between $83,000 and $86,000 has created a significant resistance barrier, with long-term holders showing minimal aggressive selling even as prices near their cost basis.

Short-term accumulation and market structureWhile long-term holders are forming resistance above, newer investors have started accumulating coins between $76,000 and $82,000. This activity is building a separate support area closer to current prices.

As a result, Bitcoin is consolidating between two major positions: buyers accumulating near the current range and longer-term holders positioned to sell if prices reach their original purchase level. The emerging support area below could help buffer any drops, while successful absorption of overhead supply may be necessary for further gains.

A clear loss of support around the $76,000 to $78,000 mark would place attention on the $75,000 level, which is seen as a critical threshold. If momentum falters there, the price floor near $62,000 to $65,000, previously cited by Glassnode as a strong structural base, could become increasingly relevant.

Demand and technical momentum remain cautiousOn-chain demand indicators from CryptoQuant highlight that, while demand has not dramatically worsened, expansion remains limited. The firm’s 30-day apparent demand measurement has been setting higher lows, a pattern suggesting selling pressure may be gradually easing.

Although demand has improved, CryptoQuant warned that the rebound is modest compared to earlier strong expansions. Head of Research Julio Moreno described the current state as “constructive, but a wall of resistance stands in the way,” drawing attention to ongoing hurdles near $81,700 and above.

The trend is constructive overall, but significant resistance around the $83,000 to $85,000 area continues to cap upside progress, creating a tug-of-war between accumulating buyers and long-term holders.

Market observers note that a rejection at $82,000 is not sufficient to identify a major distribution phase, as repeated failures at resistance can coexist with building demand that might eventually lead to a breakout.

Mixed technical signals and support structureTechnical analysis from TradingView shows Bitcoin trading near $77,105, with a mixed outlook: six sell signals, seven neutral signals, and thirteen buy signals. The RSI stands near 54, indicating neutral momentum, while the Stochastic %K and Commodity Channel Index provide short-term buy signals. However, other momentum indicators, such as the MACD and overall momentum level, suggest weakness remains.

Moving averages across different timeframes are split. Short-term 10-day and 20-day averages sit above the current price, while the 30-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day averages remain below, reinforcing a neutral-to-constructive long-term structure.

In this context, analysts say Bitcoin is in a period of sideways digestion, not a confirmed downtrend.

Level/IndicatorValue/RangeSignalKey Resistance$83,000–$85,000Overhead supply zoneCurrent Price$77,105Neutral signalsCrucial Support$74,000–$75,000Potential floorLower Support$62,000–$65,000Structural baseDistribution phase: Risk or reality?Analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin’s latest rejection signals entry into a full distribution phase. Some suggest that a recent spike in the Relative Strength Index above 70, combined with short-term price action, mirrors previous cycle peaks and could signal a distribution pattern. Still, technical experts caution that such RSI readings can persist during upward rallies and require confirmation from volume, demand, and holder behavior to indicate an actual market top.

On-chain metrics remain mixed, with long-term holders providing resistance but not significantly increasing supply to exchanges. Short-term holders and buyers are still accumulating, and apparent demand is stabilizing. The more accurate interpretation, analysts suggest, is that distribution risk has increased, though a definitive phase has not yet been confirmed.

Moving forward, holding the $74,000–$75,000 support area will be crucial for sustaining the current accumulation pattern. A break below this region may shift focus to deeper support around the $62,000–$65,000 zone. Conversely, a consistent breakout above $83,000–$85,000 would provide a stronger signal that Bitcoin’s supply barrier is being absorbed, increasing the likelihood of renewed upside attempts.

Glassnode is a leading blockchain data analytics company, known for monitoring on-chain trends and providing insights into cryptocurrency market structure, including supply and holder behavior.

CryptoQuant specializes in on-chain data analytics and market intelligence for cryptocurrencies, offering tools and metrics to assess demand, volume, and capital flows for digital assets.

Mini dictionary: Relative Strength Index (RSI), a technical momentum indicator measuring the speed and change of price movements, often used to indicate overbought or oversold conditions in an asset.

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee believes cryptocurrency investors could be entering an exceptionally strong 12-month period. 

He argues that the market has already flushed out much of its excessive leverage. 

The historically important four-year cycle is approaching its expected bottom.

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Lee recently said that the next 12 months should be “really bullish” for crypto. The strategist pointed to last October’s deleveraging and the approaching four-year-cycle trough.

“The start of a much larger move”Lee believes that the fundamental backdrop for cryptocurrencies has continued to improve even while prices went through a prolonged downturn.

“Our take this year has been crypto fundamentals have been strengthening, which is a real contrast to past crypto winters, where those were marked by closures, the absence of capital and then dwindling use cases,” Lee said.

He pointed specifically to the growing adoption of tokenization by major financial institutions.

“We know tokenization is gaining a lot of traction. So many high-profile major financial institutions are building tokenized products, particularly on Ethereum,” he said.

The increasing capabilities of artificial intelligence could represent another major source of demand for blockchain infrastructure, according to Lee.

“We know that as AI capabilities grow, it’s becoming very, very obvious that AI agents don’t want to use traditional financial systems, and so crypto rails make a lot of sense.”

Lee therefore described the recent sharp crypto rebound as a “course correction” rather than merely another short-lived rally.

“The price is finally starting to recognize that we shouldn’t be in a deep crypto winter,” he said.

Trying to catch the exact bottom could backfireLee also warned investors against attempting to perfectly time the market bottom.

“If you look at the past crypto cycles and you could buy the crypto either four weeks before or one week after the low, would you do that every day? And the answer is everyone should obviously be buying four weeks before the low or one week after the low,” he said.

Under either scenario, Lee believes investors are already entering an attractive part of the cycle.

“If the low was last week, then you’re buying one week after the low. If there is a retrace, which is possible, then you’re buying four weeks before the low.”

Attempting to wait for definitive confirmation could instead mean missing a substantial portion of the eventual rally.

“If anyone’s trying to time the bottom and do what I call buy the middle leg of the rally, they’re going to miss the majority of the gains,” Lee said.

He pointed to Fundstrat’s long-running observation that a tiny number of extremely strong trading sessions are responsible for a disproportionate share of crypto’s returns.

“We’ve published the stat, and it’s actually worked for more than a decade, that crypto makes all of its moves in 10 days. And if you miss the 10 best days, you actually have negative returns.”

Lee noted that 2026 has so far produced very few such explosive sessions.

“How many great days have happened in 2026? Like one. So, I think that there is a lot of upside for crypto between now and year-end.”

Institutional FOMO could become another catalystLee also expects institutional performance chasing to become increasingly important if crypto continues outperforming traditional assets.

“There’s going to be performance chasing by institutions,” he said.

14h35 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by Luc Jose A.

Summarize this article with:

After a 24% gain in two weeks, BTC stopped its progression and currently stagnates around 77000 dollars. According to CryptoQuant, the momentum remains bullish; however, its confirmation depends on a precise threshold: 81700 dollars, the level of the 365-day moving average. However, before reaching it, the market must still absorb a significant concentration of supply. And beyond that, two new resistances already await bitcoin at 83600 and 88700 dollars.

In brief Bitcoin rose 24% in two weeks before seeing its rebound fade around 77000 dollars. A first resistance is between 77100 and 80200 dollars, a zone marked by significant sales from long-term holders. The 81700 dollar threshold is decisive: according to CryptoQuant, passing it could confirm a new bull market. Two other resistances await Bitcoin at 83600 and 88700 dollars, with a risk of profit-taking. In case of pullback, supports are around 70000 dollars, then between 62000 and 65000 dollars. An important selling zone weighs on bitcoin’s progression Bitcoin’s rebound encounters a first resistance zone between 77100 and 80200 dollars. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, explains the situation: “the trend remains constructive, but a resistance wall stands in its way”. This barrier equals a zone where long-term holders sold up to 539000 BTC over a one-month period during this year.

Such a concentration of sales gives the resistance an on-chain dimension. Moreno describes it as “the closest and most important on-chain supply resistance above the current price”. Bitcoin must therefore absorb this supply before extending its movement, following a 24% rebound in two weeks. Immediate questions are less about the extent of the rebound already made than about the market’s ability to surpass this concentration of BTC capable of weighing on prices.

At this level, the main benchmarks proposed by CryptoQuant focus on three data points :

24% increase in bitcoin in two weeks before the movement fades ; 77100 to 80200 dollars, the supply resistance zone identified above the price ; 539000 BTC, the maximum volume sold by long-term holders over a thirty-day period this year in this zone. The 81700 dollar threshold as confirmation of a new bullish cycle The level that CryptoQuant considers decisive, 81700 dollars, is located above this first zone. Currently, it equals bitcoin’s 365-day moving average and represents, according to Moreno, the first major technical resistance. The analyst recalls that BTC bullish markets have historically started “officially” whenever the price closed above this average.

Thus, a clear breakout above 81700 dollars would confirm a new bull market, according to CryptoQuant’s analysis. This presented alternative is more cautious. Without a clear breakthrough, bitcoin would continue to progress in a range. The threshold is therefore not a promise of growth but a confirmation condition. Such a distinction nuances the reading of a market that remains constructive while the sought technical signal has not yet been obtained.

Beyond 81700 dollars, other resistances remain to be crossed The path would remain cluttered, even in case of a breakout. A new resistance is located at 83600 dollars according to CryptoQuant. It comes from the “3x Metcalfe band”, a model that determines bitcoin’s value based on network activity, fundamentally active addresses. For Moreno, these bands marked significant levels during previous cycles. The 3x band was near 138000 dollars when bitcoin reached its record of 126000 dollars in October 2025. As for the 2x band, it was close to the price when BTC hit 100000 dollars for the first time in December 2024.

Additional selling pressure would appear around 88700 dollars, the upper bound of the price model realized by CryptoQuant traders, which follows their average acquisition price. Moreno also notes:

The upper bound marks the zone where traders’ profit-taking has historically appeared.

If the market moves in the opposite direction, the analyst identified a first support around 70000 dollars, corresponding to the 200-day moving average, then a zone between 62000 and 65000 dollars, where long-term holders acquired nearly 476000 BTC this year.

Thus, the configuration described by CryptoQuant remains favorable without considering the recovery as acquired. Moreno concludes : “the overall picture remains bullish, bitcoin simply has to absorb the supply above it and break through its valuation ceilings before a new upward leg can develop”.

Between successive resistances and accumulation zones located lower, 81700 dollars now appears as the level around which the confirmation of the bullish scenario is played out.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Friday was particularly positive day for the ETH ETFs, which coincided with the major surge to an eight-month high.

For the first time since the breakout week in mid-August, the spot Bitcoin ETFs turned red, with more than $460 million leaving the funds over the past four business days.

The same cannot be said about the Ethereum counterparts, as they continue to gain significant net inflows as the underlying asset tries to extend its rally.

BTC ETFs See Red The exchange-traded funds tracking the performance of the largest cryptocurrency registered their best week in months between August 17 and 21, attracting over $1.9 billion as BTC’s price soared from under $65,000 to almost $80,000 within days. The following couple of weeks were also quite bullish, with $924 million and $986 million in net inflows.

However, the trend changed last week. Monday was a non-trading day (Labor Day), and the net outflows began on Tuesday, with $46.65 million in net withdrawals. $120.24 million followed on Wednesday, $282.56 million on Thursday, and $13.29 million on Friday – the day that the CPI numbers came out.

Consequently, the total net outflows for the week reached $462.73 million. The total net inflows declined from $55.62 billion at the end of the previous business week to $55.15 billion on September 11.

BTC’s price had a volatile end to the week as well, dropping from $77,000 to $76,000 before it surged to $79,800, then returned to its starting point. Next week is expected to be even more eventful, as the CLARITY Act will get its moment in the US Senate, and the Fed will announce its next rate move a day later.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Net Flows. Source: SoSoValue ETH ETFs Keep Gaining The spot Ethereum ETFs also began the business week with investors withdrawing $24.29 million. Wednesday was more positive, as investors poured in $34.75 million. However, sellers were back in control with another $29.76 million taken out on Thursday.

You may also like: Can Zcash Really Follow Bitcoin? This Model Puts ZEC to the Test Bitcoin’s 24% Rally Hit a Wall: CryptoQuant Reveals What Comes Next Analyst Flags Ethereum Breakout Setup With $15K Target Friday is what changed the entire week. Data from SoSoValue shows that the net inflows for the day hit a two-week peak of $216.41 million, which is quite a contrast to the BTC ETFs.

Spot Ethereum ETF Flows. Source: SoSoValue ETH’s price experienced massive volatility on that day. It traded at $2,440 just after the CPI announcement, but skyrocketed by over 8% within an hour or so, surging to $2,670 for the first time since late January. However, it was rejected there and returned to just over $2,500, where it has remained since.

Thus, the Ethereum ETFs extended their green streak to four in a row. Moreover, only one out of the previous 10 weeks has been in the red, and the outflows were quite modest, at just $2.26 million. Within this timeframe, the total net inflows have recovered from under $10.89 billion to $13.39 billion.

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Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.

Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.

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The Smarter Web Company PLC (LSE: SWC), a UK-listed digital services group that holds Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset, announced on 11 September 2026 that it is preparing a possible initial public offering of a new class of perpetual preferred shares on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. The company is targeting gross proceeds of between £15 million and £25 million, with a minimum raise of £10 million required for the listing to proceed.

The new securities, reserved under the ticker “MORE,” would carry a cumulative variable-rate weekly preferential dividend, a liquidation preference and a redemption right held by the company, but no voting rights at shareholder meetings. A circular convening a general meeting of ordinary shareholders has been posted for 28 September 2026 at 10:00 a.m., where resolutions will be put forward to authorise the creation of the share class. The company cautions that there is “no guarantee that Preferred Shares will be issued or that the Company will proceed with the Possible IPO or Admission,” which remains subject to Financial Conduct Authority approval of a prospectus.

A Bitcoin Treasury Behind the Raise The company serves more than 500 clients through web design, development and digital marketing, and pairs the acquisition of cash-generative businesses with a Bitcoin treasury policy. Its ordinary shares trade on the Main Market under the ticker SWC and on the OTCQB Venture Market in the U.S. under TSWCF. The company lists recurring operating cash flows, substantial cash reserves, its Bitcoin treasury and access to public capital markets as potential sources from which the preferred share dividend could be met. Chief executive Andrew Webley described the proposed shares as “the first of their kind in the UK: a pounds sterling-denominated, London Stock Exchange Main Market-listed perpetual preferred share issued by a UK-incorporated commercial company with a Bitcoin treasury strategy.”

Preferred Capital and the Bitcoin Treasury Trend The move extends a pattern in which Bitcoin treasury companies tap preferred equity to raise long-term capital without diluting ordinary shareholders. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has issued multiple series of perpetual preferred stock to fund its Bitcoin strategy. The Smarter Web Company says the proceeds would support acquisitions of revenue-generating businesses, working capital and its broader goal of growing Bitcoin per share over time.

AUTHOR

A freelance writer with a passion for crypto, delivering insightful and accurate content on blockchain and fintech. With a knack for translating complex concepts into accessible content, Eric produces well-researched articles, blog posts, and thought leadership pieces that cover the latest trends and developments in the digital finance space. His writing is aimed at educating and engaging both newcomers and industry experts, offering fresh insights into the world of cryptocurrencies, decentralized finance (DeFi), and blockchain innovations. Eric’s dedication to quality and accuracy makes him a trusted voice in the fintech and crypto communities

THE STREET: Revolut leak links Bitcoin transactions to doorsteps

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Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet Inc. (TSE: 3350) announced on 11 September 2026 that its board of directors resolved to reduce the potential share pool under its 10th Series Stock Acquisition Rights by 41.1%, from 319,464,000 to 188,190,000 shares, following a range of feedback from shareholders and capital market participants. Chief executive Simon Gerovich signed the notice on behalf of the company.

The Board’s Resolution The amendment cuts the number of shares underlying each stock acquisition right from 696 to 410, lowering the total potential pool by 131,274,000 shares. After deducting the portion already exercised, the remaining potential shares fall by 55.5%, from 236,640,000 to 105,366,000. Unvested rights now carry a new exercise restriction, with three equal portions becoming exercisable on 18 August 2029, 2030 and 2031 respectively. The company also withdrew its plan to transfer up to 90,000 rights to a long-term officer and employee incentive vehicle and will instead design a new compensation plan with a global consultant. The lock-up through 17 August 2031 and the JPY 10 exercise price remain unchanged, and if all remaining rights are exercised the company would receive roughly JPY 1.05 billion.

The board said it reconsidered the reference date used to calculate the shares underlying the rights, shifting it from 30 June 2026 to 1 September 2025. Metaplanet argued this better aligns the options with the period when its equity financings were executed at the highest premiums to net asset value, whereas later offerings including the September 2025 international placement were completed at more modest premiums. The company has drawn scrutiny as its floating option pool expanded alongside its share count while it pursued a strategy of raising equity to accumulate Bitcoin.

Because the fully diluted share count falls in line with the rights reduction, Metaplanet said its fully diluted Bitcoin per share improves accordingly. The company holds 43,000 BTC and reported roughly 0.0286646 BTC per effective diluted share, up from 0.0263554 as of 30 June, with the current-quarter BTC Yield at 8.8%. The disclosure shows one director holds 276,000 units, equal to 113,160,000 underlying shares after the cut, with 49,128,000 still exercisable. As Metaplanet expands its treasury strategy, it expects the amendment’s impact on current-year results to be immaterial.

AUTHOR

Tokoni Uti is a Lagos-based writer with several years of experience. Her work has appeared in the Huffington Post, the Los Angeles Free Press and the San Diego Free press among others. She is a graduate of Bowen University.

UniCredit has already tested the market through a Bitcoin-linked certificate and Italy’s first public-blockchain tokenized minibond

UniCredit is exploring an expansion into digital assets that would add crypto custody and brokerage, and has started selecting a technology provider to hold the assets and handle client transactions, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

As per the report, the discussions are early, and no final decision has been made. Areas under consideration include custody and brokerage, tokenized investment products and fixed-income securities, and stablecoin applications for clients. UniCredit has not disclosed which providers it is weighing, how much it might spend, or when it would choose one.

Any crypto services would fall under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, whose grace period ended on July 1. MiCA requires crypto-asset service providers to hold a license and lets authorized firms passport custody and trading across the 30-country European Economic Area.

Building on Earlier Crypto Moves Selecting an outside technology provider is the path other large banks have taken into crypto custody. Deutsche Bank tapped Swiss firm Taurus for digital asset custody and tokenization after what the vendor called a detailed selection and due diligence process.

UniCredit has already put crypto products in front of clients. The bank opened a five-year, dollar-denominated certificate linked to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) to professional clients in July 2025, with full capital protection at maturity, a cap of 85% on returns and a $25,000 minimum. It was the first product of its kind in Italy.

In December 2025, UniCredit and state lender Cassa Depositi e Prestiti structured Italy’s first tokenized minibond on a public blockchain, a €5 million issue for E4 Computer Engineering recorded on Polygon.

UniCredit also belongs to Qivalis, an Amsterdam consortium that has grown to 37 European banks across 15 countries and plans to launch a MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin on Ethereum in the second half of 2026. The token would be backed one-for-one by euro deposits, subject to approval from the Dutch central bank.

You may also like: Ethena Expands Ecosystem With Launch of Self-Custodial Money App Circle Puts USDC on the Front of Chelsea’s Shirts in Principal Partnership Gemini Signs Apex Letter of Intent to Bring Crypto Event Contracts to Brokerages Banks Push Into Digital Assets Other large lenders have already started selling crypto to clients. BBVA began offering Bitcoin (BTC) trading and custody to private banking clients in Switzerland, and Israel’s Bank Leumi lined up Galaxy to run trading and custody for a 2027 launch covering Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

UniCredit is also expanding in digital markets beyond crypto. On September 8, it bought a minority stake in VC Trade, a Frankfurt platform that digitizes bond and loan deals. The platform sits in debt markets, separate from the crypto plans, and has handled more than €90 billion across over 600 transactions.

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Summary Strategy published a Bitcoin Investor Guide built for advisers, bankers and capital allocators. The document foregrounds volatility and drawdowns instead of aggressive price targets. Its digital capital architecture closely tracks Strategy’s own stack of listed securities. The release follows Strategy’s first-ever Bitcoin sales and a heavy loss earlier this year. Michael Saylor’s Strategy has released a 21-page Bitcoin Investor Guide that repositions the asset for a professional audience, using market data current to September 4 and a revision date of September 7. The framing is deliberately institutional. Rather than repeating the seven-figure price forecasts Saylor is known for on X, the guide walks bankers, advisers and treasurers through scarcity mechanics, custody governance, portfolio sizing and a long list of ways an investor can be right about Bitcoin and still lose money. It arrives at an awkward moment for its author, with Bitcoin trading back under $80,000 after spending much of the past ten months in a bear market.

Bitcoin is an open, global reserve asset with absolute scarcity. The Investor Guide explores Bitcoin’s monetary properties, investment case, market structure, portfolio role, custody and risks. $BTChttps://t.co/MAt57RCG8y

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) September 12, 2026

Saylor’s guide opens on an 83% crash, not a price target The tone is the story here. Strategy’s own dashboard, reproduced in the guide, shows Bitcoin down 28.3% over the trailing year and sitting 36.1% below its all-time high. The guide states plainly that Bitcoin has repeatedly fallen between 50% and 90% and can stay below prior peaks for years. It lists the deepest drawdown in the dataset at 93.1%, recorded back in 2011. This is not the messaging that built Strategy’s retail following, and the shift is intentional. The audience Strategy now wants to reach measures risk before it measures upside.

Strategy dashboard metric As of Sep 4, 2026 Bitcoin price $79,809 200-week moving average $64,715 Premium to 200-week average 23.3% 1-year return -28.3% 10-year annualized return 62.8% Market capitalization ~$1.60T Bitcoin dominance 66% ETF bitcoin held 1.27M BTC Network hashrate 935 EH/s Implied volatility 39.6% Source: Strategy Bitcoin Investor Guide, market data as of September 4, 2026.

The 200-week moving average deserves a plain reading, because Strategy leans on it. That line is simply the average price over the last 200 weeks, and Bitcoin currently trades about 23% above it. Investors treat it as a long-term trend marker, and the guide is careful to say it is a backward-looking reference that can be broken, not a floor under the price. On shorter timeframes the picture is softer. Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 in the second week of September and now sits roughly 8% above its 200-day exponential moving average near $72,823, a level traders watch as near-term support. Worth saying: an 8% cushion above the 200-day line is not much room in an asset that routinely moves that in a session, which is the discomfort Strategy’s long-horizon framing is built to talk investors through.

Share of Bitcoin holding periods that ended in profit, one to four years. Source: Strategy Bitcoin Investor Guide. The digital capital pyramid is Strategy’s own product menu The guide’s central original idea is a layered model it calls digital capital. Bitcoin sits at the base as a reserve asset, and on top of it Strategy stacks digital equity, digital credit, digital debt, derivatives and, eventually, digital money. Each layer repackages Bitcoin’s volatility for a different investor: equity holders take residual upside, preferred holders take a stiffer claim with less appreciation, note holders take contractual interest, and so on. The framing is elegant, and it is not neutral. That stack maps almost one for one onto the securities Strategy itself has issued, including its MSTR common shares and its STRF, STRK, STRC and STRD preferred instruments. What reads as a market taxonomy also functions as a rationale for the company’s entire capital structure.

Strategy discloses the conflict directly, noting that it holds a large amount of Bitcoin and issues securities whose value depends on it, giving it an economic interest in higher prices. That disclosure is worth taking at face value while also reading the guide for what it is: an educational document produced by the single most exposed corporate holder in the market.

Four years is the number that does the selling The behavioral core of the guide is a table of rolling holding-period returns stretching back to 2010. It is the part most likely to move an allocator, and it works by contrast. Over any one-year window in the data, the worst outcome was a loss of 83.6%. Extend the window to four years, roughly one halving cycle, and the worst completed outcome in the entire history was still a gain of 32.6%.

Holding period Median return Worst return 1 year +97.7% -83.6% 2 years +272.2% -68.3% 3 years +481.7% -34.7% 4 years +1,301.7% +32.6% Source: Strategy Bitcoin Investor Guide, rolling daily windows through September 4, 2026.

Strategy adds the caveats a careful reader would demand. The windows overlap, the early data is thin and fragmentary, the sample is short, and none of these figures are probabilities of what comes next. The guide even names the conditions under which it would expect an investor to sell, including a sustained loss of settlement reliability, erosion of the scarcity premise, or evidence that adoption has stalled below the assumed valuation. A promotional document that hands you its own exit criteria is doing something more unusual than cheerleading.

Bitcoin’s 2010-2026 price against its 200-week moving average. Source: Strategy Bitcoin Investor Guide. What the guide leaves out about Strategy’s own year The context Strategy does not dwell on is its own recent year. Saylor spent five years promising never to sell, then reversed that position in May, when the company executed its first Bitcoin liquidation. In the two weeks ending August 9 it sold 3,328 BTC for roughly $213 million, using the proceeds to help fund dividends on its preferred shares rather than to buy more Bitcoin. The stock has been punished for the strain, with MSTR down more than 50% over the past year, and Strategy reported a $12.5 billion loss in the first quarter alone. JPMorgan warned in July that the company’s concentrated buying could amplify volatility, and that any forced selling could hit Bitcoin’s price harder than its size alone would suggest.

Independent voices draw a sharper line between the company and the asset. Analysts at The Motley Fool argued this month that Strategy’s filings reveal a lot about Strategy and very little about Bitcoin, and that investors should not read the company’s trades as signals about the underlying coin. That distinction is the quiet tension running underneath the guide. The document asks readers to separate the wrapper from the reserve asset, which is precisely the discipline that Strategy’s own share price has been failing this year.

The slow money Strategy wants, and the dividends it must fund The guide reads as an opening bid to a slower, more conservative pool of capital than the one that carried Strategy through 2020 and 2021. It speaks the language of risk budgets, custody ceremonies and four-year funding horizons because that is what pension consultants, private banks and family-office gatekeepers require before they write a memo. Whether that audience buys direct Bitcoin, a spot ETP or one of Strategy’s own instruments matters enormously to the company, since its equity and credit layers only function if investors keep treating the stack as a legitimate way to hold the asset.

The nearer-term pressure is structural rather than rhetorical. Strategy’s preferred shares carry ongoing dividend obligations, and the company sold Bitcoin to help meet them earlier this year before resuming purchases in late August. Saylor has publicly reframed the mission around maximizing Bitcoin per share by 2033, which leaves room for tactical sales that the old never-sell doctrine forbade. The guide tells institutions to think in four-year blocks and to fund positions with capital that can sit untouched. Strategy’s own model, built on dividends and periodic issuance, does not have that luxury, and the next test of the distance between its advice and its practice will come with its Q3 results.