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Grayscale Opens In-Kind Crypto Investing for Bitcoin, XRP, Dogecoin, Solana ETFs

Bitcoin climbed above $84,000 to reach $84,134 at the time of writing. The advance came as inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) slowed sharply. Although BlackRock continued to attract capital, Bitcoin faces significant resistance at levels where many existing investors bought their holdings.

In the higher-risk meme coin market, sustaining buyer interest presents a different challenge. Data showing that trading in most new tokens quickly dries up highlights the importance of what projects are building alongside their price prospects. MemeToro ($MT), which is developing an AI-powered meme coin launchpad on BNB Chain, aims to address this through a model built around rules published in advance and open-source code.

Bitcoin ETF demand and the $87,700 threshold come into focusAccording to SoSoValue, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $23.16 million on October 20. That was roughly 96% below the $526.7 million recorded in the previous trading session. The decline reflects a slowdown in daily net new capital entering the funds, rather than a withdrawal of existing investments.

BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $29.86 million and Fidelity’s FBTC brought in $3.58 million, while Bitwise’s BITB recorded outflows of $10.29 million. The previous day, BlackRock alone attracted $665.2 million, but withdrawals from other funds left the sector’s overall net inflow below that figure.

Despite the slowdown following the strongest daily inflow in roughly a month, the two-day total remained positive at $549.9 million. However, combined outflows of $729 million on October 7–8 suggest that institutional demand has yet to settle into a consistent pattern. That uneven picture remains relevant ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 28 interest rate decision.

The first significant threshold above Bitcoin’s current price is $85,000. According to Glassnode, investors who bought in late 2025 have an average cost basis of around $87,700. This sits in the same region as Bitcoin’s opening price for the year of approximately $87,490 and its 20-month moving average near $87,165.

Investors holding unrealized losses may sell as the price approaches their entry levels, creating a strong resistance zone. A sustained break above this area could support a move toward $90,000, although stronger spot buying would be needed. On the downside, attention is on the $80,000–$81,500 range, which includes the roughly $81,500 average cost basis of ETF holdings. If that support fails, the next level in focus could be around $78,000, where Glassnode’s “True Market Mean” indicator stands.

Regional trading patterns also stand out. According to data shared by Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn, Bitcoin’s cumulative return during Asian trading sessions was 3.9% from October 1–20, compared with 1.1% during US sessions. European sessions recorded a 5.5% loss. The buy-and-hold return over the same period was negative 0.7%.

Options are also accounting for a growing share of the derivatives market. According to Volmex data cited by CoinDesk, Bitcoin options now represent close to 60% of total Bitcoin derivatives open interest, up from around 50% at the start of the year. Options account for $76 billion of roughly $129 billion in total derivatives open interest. ETF-linked options stand at approximately $36 billion, with IBIT options accounting for around $35 billion. Volmex links this shift to a greater emphasis on risk management.

Not every large investor is increasing their Bitcoin exposure, however. After a five-day pause, a whale tracked by on-chain analyst Ai Yi exchanged Bitcoin for 3,038.73 ETH worth approximately $7.5 million across three addresses. Since October 11, the investor has accumulated more than 46,103.3 ETH through similar swaps, with a total transaction value exceeding $115 million.

MemeToro aims to bring transparent rules to meme coin launchesWhile Bitcoin investors assess the staying power of institutional demand, the central challenge in the meme coin market is whether newly launched tokens can attract lasting buying interest. According to CoinGecko data reported by Crypto News on October 18, the sector’s total market capitalization stood at approximately $29.9 billion, with daily trading volume of $3.4 billion. Dogecoin, Shiba Inu and PEPE accounted for around 56% of the total market value.

The picture is more fragile among new projects. Research by Bitquery found that 79% of tokens launched on Pump.fun traded only on their first day. Just 1.5% were still trading after five weeks. The findings suggest that launching a token alone does not create a sustainable market.

MemeToro plans to use AI to analyze news and conversations on X, generate meme coin ideas, and publicly explain the reasoning behind them. The terms of each token launch are recorded in a file that anyone can inspect. A smart contract called “FairLaunchEscrow” enforces those terms, while the AI itself does not hold funds.

The project’s MIT-licensed GitHub repository contains the AI component, the file structure defining launch terms, the escrow contract and automated tests. The team describes the current version as an initial working product, while development of the full platform continues in collaboration with Web3 security company Coinsult.

The platform’s native token, $MT, is being offered at $0.00649 in Stage 9 of its presale. According to its token allocation, 71% of the total supply of 1.2 billion tokens is reserved for the public sale, while 2% is allocated to the team. The project says buyers receive their tokens directly in their wallets at the time of purchase, with no lockup on presale tokens. Each stage has a funding target; once it is reached, the next stage opens at a higher price. This pricing structure does not guarantee the token’s subsequent market value.

The project states that the $MT token contract has been audited by Coinsult, SolidProof and BlockSAFU. However, those audits should be distinguished from reviews of the platform’s token launch contracts: these contracts, including FairLaunchEscrow, have not yet undergone independent audits. Token creation and liquidity provision functions, a public funding page, and completion of the file standard defining launch terms also remain on the roadmap. With the team operating under pseudonyms, the published code, the scope of the audits and development progress are key factors in assessing the project.

For Bitcoin, the move above $84,000 brings the price closer to initial resistance at $85,000. However, slowing ETF inflows suggest the advance is not being matched by equally strong institutional buying. For MemeToro, the more meaningful test goes beyond presale progress: whether its open-source prototype becomes a usable platform with completed independent audits. The existing token audits cover one part of that process; they do not provide assurance for the entire platform under development.

For those seeking high returns in meme coins, much of the appeal lies in discovering a project before it reaches a wider audience. Now in Stage 9 of its presale, MemeToro is one project that may warrant a closer look. Keeping the substantial risks of early participation in mind, its official website offers a starting point for examining what the team is building, how the tokens are allocated and what the audit reports cover. Thorough research is recommended before making an investment decision.

Binance’s stablecoin reserves have dropped to $41.6 billion, a one-year low, after $6.3 billion left the exchange since April. The drain is market-wide, and it is starving crypto rallies of fresh buying power.

Prices have not collapsed. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $83,350, roughly 4% below its September peak. However, the cash needed to push it higher keeps shrinking.

How Far Has Binance’s Cash Pile Fallen?Binance’s ERC-20 stablecoin balance peaked near $51 billion in late November 2025, according to CryptoQuant data shared by analyst Darkfost.

It has since lost roughly $9 billion. As a result, reserves are back at levels last seen in early October 2025.

A spring recovery briefly lifted the balance to about $48 billion in early May. However, that gain has fully reversed, with $6.3 billion exiting since April.

The 90-day change in Binance’s stablecoin market cap has stayed negative since the summer and now reads -4.7%.

That is milder than the February and March slump. Back then, the 90-day change sank below -15% as BTC slid from roughly $95,000 to the mid-$60,000s.

Concentration raises the stakes. Binance still holds more than 70% of all exchange stablecoin reserves.

Stablecoin market cap change in Binance. Source: Darkfost/CryptoQuantIs the Drain Limited to Binance?No. Since April, Coinbase Advanced lost $2.5 billion in stablecoins, OKX $2.4 billion, and Bybit $2.3 billion, per Darkfost.

Together, the four venues have shed roughly $13.5 billion. Because the data tracks ERC-20 tokens only, the full outflow may be larger.

Meanwhile, total supply offers little offset. Tether (USDT) has hovered near $183 billion since April. USD Coin (USDC), in contrast, slipped from $78 billion to $72 billion, per CoinGecko.

This mirrors an earlier exchange stablecoin reserves drop, which pointed to a similar liquidity squeeze.

Why Does Every Bitcoin Rally Run Out of Fuel?The CryptoQuant chart exposes a divergence. BTC climbed more than 30% from its August low to $86,597 on Sept. 22, yet Binance’s stablecoin balance kept falling.

In other words, the Bitcoin price rallied without fresh exchange cash behind it. Such moves may lean on existing holders and leverage, which can leave them fragile.

That fragility now shows. BTC has given back about 4%, while Ethereum (ETH) has dropped roughly 11% from its Sept. 22 high of $2,775.

Trading activity has thinned too. BTC’s average daily trading volume fell 27%, from $38.6 billion in April to $28.2 billion so far in October.

Derivatives traders are not leaning in either. Funding rates are the fees long and short traders swap periodically. On Binance and Bybit BTC perpetuals, they sit at the neutral 0.01% baseline.

What Would Bring Buyers Back to Exchanges?Darkfost offers two explanations. First, exchanges may be trimming stablecoin inventory to match weaker demand, as investors avoid fresh crypto exposure.

Alternatively, some holders may have moved funds to platforms paying yield while they wait for better conditions.

Either reading points to the same outcome. Without new stablecoins on exchanges, buyers lack the dry powder to defend breakouts.

That pressure adds to Bitcoin’s October risk factors, which already weighed on sentiment entering the month.

The signal to watch is a turn in Binance’s 90-day change back above zero. Until then, rallies may keep running on positioning rather than new capital.

More broadly, the drain shows how much crypto price discovery still rests on a few centralized venues. When Binance’s cash pile shrinks, the whole market feels it.

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Bitcoin is consolidating near $82,000 to $83,000 after retreating from recent highs above $87,000. A new CryptoQuant analysis warns that the S&P 500 is showing similar weakness.

Analysts are split on whether a deeper correction is coming. Here is what the data suggests.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoWhy Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Are Moving TogetherThe CryptoQuant analysis by nocoffeenobrain notes concurrent weakness in Bitcoin and the S&P 500. That setup has previously preceded deeper crypto declines.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are pushing toward multi-year highs while momentum fades in both markets. Historical parallels include late 2018 and January to April 2025.

In late 2018, yields rolled over from their peaks, equities came under pressure, and Bitcoin’s sell-off intensified into year-end. In 2025, yields retreated from January highs before April turmoil hit both equities and Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin vs S&P 500 vs Treasury Yields. Source: CryptoQuantThe S&P 500 has yet to experience a proper correction this cycle. If equities take a bigger hit as yields rise, Bitcoin could be dragged lower. The catalysts may differ from past episodes, though.

That risk is why the CryptoQuant warning matters. Weakness now appears across risk assets rather than in a single market. Traders will also watch yields closely in the coming sessions.

Is the Market Heading for a Deeper Correction?Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer notes that the market broadened last week. However, it did so in a down market as the AI theme was sold. Only about 55% of stocks sit above their 200-day moving average. Breadth has improved but remains tepid, according to his analysis.

The cap-weighted S&P 500 has largely gone nowhere since early June. It is trapped between rising capital costs and an ongoing earnings boom. Investors will watch whether breadth improves in the coming weeks. A broader rally would weaken the case for a correction.

Not everyone shares the caution. Michaël van de Poppe sees Bitcoin consolidating with no decisive move yet. He advises patience until price breaks clearly out of its range.

KillaXBT argues the next bear cycle may never trade below $100,000, while Crypto Rover points to an imminent golden cross. Both views rely on technical or cycle-based arguments rather than macro data.

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The divergence leaves the outlook open. Bitcoin’s path may hinge on whether equities deliver the deeper correction that has so far remained absent.

A series of security vulnerabilities have been disclosed in internet infrastructure software within a single day, affecting PHP, Node.js, and Go.

Multiple internet infrastructure software projects rolled out security updates in a single day, addressing vulnerabilities including remote code execution, TLS certificate validation bypass, and certificate trust risks. PHP fixed two critical flaws: CVE-2026-109618 and CVE-2026-109619, both enabling unauthenticated remote code execution that impacts PHP environments processing web requests. The patched versions are 8.5.12, 8.4.27, 8.3.36, and 8.2.35. Node.js’ advisory details 10 vulnerabilities, four of which are high-severity: these include remote code execution via out-of-bounds write in the Brotli decoder, DNS name truncation, and two TLS certificate hostname validation bypass issues. Fixed versions are 26.12.1, 24.22.1, and 22.23.4. Additionally, Go’s crypto/x509-related risk is tracked as CVE-2026-111943, rated "Important" by Red Hat with a CVSS 3.1 score of 6.8. Attackers with specific network access and valid certificates could impersonate legitimate servers to intercept or alter communications. Go 1.26.10 and 1.27.3 have been added to a deny list, blocking trust for compromised intermediate certificates.

19 minutes ago

Dataline completes $10.6 million seed round funding, and plans to conduct an ICO.

Decentralized data network for AI agents Dataline has closed a $10.6 million seed round, co-led by Lattice and Samsung-backed Dispersion Capital, with participation from Symbolic Capital, Coinbase Ventures, Anagram, and Robinhood co-founder & CEO Vlad Tenev, among others. The round, completed in April, utilized a SAFE agreement with token warrants; valuation was not disclosed. Dataline is now live, covering approximately 50 data sources to deliver on-chain and off-chain data, and scores data reliability, timeliness, and consistency using AI. Proceeds will be allocated to expanding data sources, enhancing data validation, and expanding into robotics, AI training data, and other sectors. Dataline plans to launch a token by the end of 2026 for network payments and data access, and intends to conduct a public token sale on Base via Uniswap’s Continuous Clearing Auction (CCA) system, with details set to be revealed next week. The public sale’s target fundraising amount, token quantity, and other terms remain undisclosed.

19 minutes ago

Trump plans to leverage White House cyber crime efforts to showcase achievements in combating cross-border crypto fraud.

White House officials said on October 21 that Trump planned to focus on the U.S. government’s actions to crack down on overseas crypto fraud rings during the White House’s cybersecurity event that day, including recovering funds and shutting down fraudulent operations. These transnational criminal groups steal funds from U.S. citizens via romance scams, phishing, ransomware and other methods. The U.S. government noted that law enforcement agencies have seized approximately $833 million in crypto assets linked to overseas fraud, and shut down 503 fraudulent crypto websites under the supervision of the Homeland Security Task Force. Relevant authorities have also notified nearly 9,000 U.S. citizens to alert them they are being targeted by fraud. The U.S. Treasury Department previously announced the establishment of an inter-agency "Fraud Strike Task Force" to target "pig butchering" scams run by organized criminal groups in Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and the Philippines. Since last year, the U.S. has also imposed multiple sanctions aimed at cutting off support for related fraud websites and their infrastructure.

19 minutes ago

American Bankers Association voices dissatisfaction with OCC’s final GENIUS Act rule, which abandons proposed restrictions on stablecoin yields.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that the American Bankers Association (ABA) has voiced dissatisfaction with the final rules implemented by the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) under the GENIUS Act. The OCC abandoned the previously proposed restrictions on stablecoin yields, a move the ABA argues will "maintain the status quo for crypto platforms." The ABA’s CEO stated: "It is a mistake to wait until deposit outflows and economic harm have already occurred before attempting to address these issues."

19 minutes ago

Beyond PHP, three Node.js version branches are also affected by high-severity vulnerabilities, and users need to update their runtime environments promptly.

Node.js rolled out a security update on October 21, covering its 26.x, 24.x, and 22.x version branches, with corresponding patched releases: 26.12.1, 24.22.1, and 22.23.4. The advisory details 10 total vulnerabilities, categorized as 4 critical-severity, 3 medium-severity, and 3 low-severity, with varying impact scopes across the three version lines. The critical CVE-2026-111497 is an out-of-bounds write flaw in the Brotli decoder that could enable remote code execution (RCE), affecting all three branches. Other critical issues include improper null character handling in DNS resolution and a TLS certificate hostname validation bypass. The update also resolves problems with persistent connection response processing, random number cache duplication, and permission models, while updating dependencies including c-ares, OpenSSL, and Undici. The official note warns that end-of-life (EOL) versions may still be vulnerable, advising users to use the latest supported releases. Separately, prior reports noted PHP has fixed two critical unauthenticated RCE vulnerabilities, with patches available for versions 8.5.12, 8.4.27, 8.3.36, and 8.2.35; PHP users are urged to upgrade immediately.

19 minutes ago

Putin in principle has agreed to resume the trilateral peace talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine, with Abu Dhabi a possible venue.

According to reports from Reuters and Axios, the Kremlin stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin told U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff on Wednesday he "agrees in principle" to resume trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. around November 10 to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the venue potentially in Abu Dhabi.
Witkoff held a three-hour meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg the same day, presenting the latest plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump envoy Jared Kushner joined the session via video.
Witkoff informed Putin that progress had been made in the Oslo talks, and expressed hope that both sides would consider restarting the Russia-U.S.-Ukraine trilateral negotiations and allow technical experts to participate in discussions on specific issues. He also submitted multiple documents on the peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to Putin.
Separately, Putin raised with Witkoff the possibility of Russia acting as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran. Putin noted that Russia has decades of special trust relations with Iran and is willing to contribute to resolving the current crisis.

19 minutes ago

Crypto X Hates Arkham’s New Paywall. ARKM Token Jumps 8% Anyway

Table of contents

A $10,000 position in AERO a day ago is worth about $10,609 this morning. The same $10,000 in Bitcoin is worth roughly $10,086. The five-percentage-point gap is modest on its own, but the catalyst behind it is not: Aerodrome and Velodrome, two of the busiest decentralized exchanges in Ethereum’s ecosystem, merge into a single exchange called Aero on October 21, and the market has started pricing the consolidation ahead of the launch.

AERO traded at $0.8614 at 05:01 UTC on October 21, up 6.09% over 24 hours, per CoinGecko data. Bitcoin held $82,718 (+0.86%), Ethereum $2,442 (+1.31%), Solana $105.80 (+0.65%), and XRP $1.33 (+2.15%). The token is still 8% below its October 16 high of $0.9368, so the rally is a recovery rather than a breakout. The launch itself is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on October 21, or 00:00 UTC on October 22, according to the project’s launch update.

Why the Majors Are Pinned in a Box The backdrop for any altcoin call right now is a Bitcoin market that has stopped making decisions. Over the past seven days, BTC has traded between roughly $81,400 and $82,900, a band of barely 2%, while its 24-hour moves have rarely exceeded 1% in either direction. The Federal Reserve’s next policy decision lands on October 28, and rate expectations have done more to set the crypto tape this month than any on-chain development.

That is the regime a macro-minded buyer is working inside: risk assets are waiting on a central-bank date rather than chasing catalysts. Bitcoin’s $1.66 trillion market capitalization is now too large to move fast on a single product announcement. It needs a change in the flow of money, not a change in the news. Altcoins, by contrast, can still re-rate on a discrete, dated event, and that is precisely what the Aero merger offers. We last screened the money angle in our Monero-led privacy trade, where a shrinking float was the driver; here the driver is consolidation of trading volume, not scarcity.

What the Aero Launch Actually Consolidates The merger has been in motion for ten months. Aerodrome and Velodrome — the leading decentralized exchanges on Base and OP Mainnet respectively — announced their combination in late 2025, and the resulting entity now has a final chain list: Base, Ethereum Mainnet, OP Mainnet, Arc, Ink, Robinhood Chain, and Arbitrum. The launch update describes the goal in its own words: “Aero will be the unified liquidity layer for all of Ethereum: one exchange built to power the future of onchain finance.”

The scale argument is specific, not rhetorical. The project states that “the chains Aerodrome and Velodrome serve account for about 17% of EVM spot trading volume. This launch is set to roughly triple that.” Triple from 17% lands near 50% of all EVM spot volume — a target that, if reached, would make Aero the single largest venue in onchain spot trading. The mechanics that carry the claim are Metaswaps for cross-chain trading, Slipstream concentrated-liquidity pools with dynamic fees, and an AER Engine that caps reward emissions against projected revenue.

The Market-Cap Math Between a 2x and a 10x This is where the money angle gets concrete. AERO’s market capitalization sits at roughly $0.85 billion, ranked about 85th. A 2x to $1.7 billion would not require displacing anyone; it would merely lift AERO into the middle of the DeFi token field. A 10x to $8.5 billion is a different proposition — it would make Aero nearly twice the size of Uniswap’s UNI, which carries roughly $4.7 billion, and would demand that the exchange actually capture something close to the 50% volume share its own materials project.

The seven-day chart shows the risk in that arithmetic. AERO peaked at $0.9368 on October 16, slid to $0.7957 by October 20, and has only now clawed back to $0.86. A buyer at the high is still underwater. Compare the Bitcoin side of the same calculation: a 2x on BTC means roughly $165,000, and a 10x means about $827,000 — numbers that require a repricing of the entire macro asset, not the execution of one product roadmap. That asymmetry, smaller base against larger required multiple, is the whole reason a catalyst-driven altcoin can be worth a look while Bitcoin grinds sideways.

Where the AERO Trade Could Break The skeptical case is easy to assemble and worth stating in full. First, the launch is a going-live event, not a proven outcome: the update itself notes that final fixes were still being merged and the full application had yet to enter final quality assurance. A technical stumble on day one would hit the token harder than the anticipation has lifted it. Second, the AER Engine is designed to stream AERO rewards to liquidity providers, which means the token supply is set to expand — a dynamic that can dilute holders even as volume grows. Third, the token is down 5.18% over seven days despite the six-percent daily pop, so the trend is not yet established.

None of this is a reason to dismiss the event, but it is a reason to treat the multiple math as a scenario, not a forecast. The merger gives AERO a real, dated catalyst and a concrete share target; the market will judge by the volume Aero actually routes in its first weeks, not by the launch announcement. A buyer is not paying for the launch, but for the chance that a unified Base-plus-OP venue becomes the default onchain trading rail.

Convert Bitcoin to USD with our live exchange rate calculator.

Frequently Asked Questions What is the Aero merger? Aerodrome and Velodrome, the leading decentralized exchanges on Base and OP Mainnet, are combining into a single exchange called Aero. It launches October 21 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern across seven chains, with the AERO token as its unified asset.

Why is AERO going up today? AERO is up about 6% in 24 hours as the market prices the launch of the merged exchange. The project says the chains it inherits handle about 17% of EVM spot volume and that the launch is set to roughly triple that.

Can AERO reach an $8.5 billion market cap? A 10x from today’s $0.85 billion market cap would require about $8.5 billion, nearly twice Uniswap’s UNI. That depends on the exchange capturing close to its projected share of EVM spot volume, not on the launch announcement alone.

Is Bitcoin a better buy than AERO right now? They are different trades. Bitcoin at $82,718 needs a flow-level repricing to double and has traded in a tight range ahead of the Fed’s October 28 decision. AERO is smaller, more volatile, and tied to a single dated catalyst.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

AUTHOR

Entrepreneur and freelance writer based in Nakuru, Kenya. I cover cryptocurrency, the Blockchain technology, and financial topics. It’s my joy to transform the simplest phrases in a way they reach a reader’s heart to help them discover how crypto is disrupting the world as we have known it. I believe in transforming the world, one word at a time.

On-chain analytics company Glassnode reported that Bitcoin (BTC) continues its sideways price movement in the short term and has yet to break through the critical resistance zone between $87,000 and $87,800. According to the company, a breakout from Bitcoin’s current trading range could significantly increase price volatility in the market.

Glassnode, in its analysis published on the social media platform X, noted that the Bitcoin price has recently continued to move within a certain range.

The analysis firm stated that the levels between $87,000 and $87,800 represent significant resistance in terms of short-term price movements.

This price range was also identified as a critical resistance zone in a report jointly published last month by Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional.

According to Glassnode, if Bitcoin breaks through this zone and exits its current sideways movement, market volatility could increase significantly. Such a development could lead to more volatile short-term price movements.

However, the analysis firm reported that additional selling pressure intensified in the region near the $90,000 level.

This suggests that even if Bitcoin breaks above the $87,800 resistance level, the upward movement could encounter a new hurdle around $90,000.

Two key price zones highlighted in the analysis are important for investors to assess the short-term market direction. First, whether the $87,000-$87,800 range can be breached, and then how the selling pressure around $90,000 will be met.

Glassnode’s assessment focuses on the potential for increased price volatility following a breakout, but does not include a prediction of exactly which direction Bitcoin will move.

The market’s reaction to current resistance levels could be decisive in shaping short-term price movements.

*This is not investment advice.

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9h05 ▪
5
min read ▪ by
Luc Jose A.

Summarize this article with:

Leverage traders continue to bet on a bitcoin rebound despite weak spot purchases. This divergence could amplify a new drop below 80000 dollars, as many long positions would then be exposed to forced liquidations.

In brief

Traders continue to bet on a bitcoin rise despite weak spot purchases.
Leverage positions remain high, with $36.4 billion committed on futures contracts.
The options market shows growing demand for protection against another drop.
The $80,000 threshold becomes decisive, as its breach could trigger forced position liquidations.
The Fed meeting on October 27-28 could influence the bitcoin’s next direction.

Traders remain optimistic despite spot sell-offs
The perpetual futures market shows that bullish bets remain significant. According to Glassnode’s weekly report published on October 19, payments made by long positions increased by 49.4%, from $1.1 million to $1.6 million.

These fees, called funding rates, help keep perpetual contract prices close to the real bitcoin price. When buyers pay sellers, it generally signals stronger demand for positions betting on an increase.

However, several data show that this optimism rests on a fragile structure :

Buyer payments reached $1.6 million ;
Open interest on futures remains high at $36.4 billion ;
Spot sell-offs still exceed purchases ;
Open interest on options has grown to $38.6 billion ;
The cost of protection against a drop has sharply increased ;
The $80,000 threshold remains the main support to defend.

Open interest on futures only fell by 0.3%, compared to $36.5 billion a week earlier. Leverage positions remain numerous despite bitcoin’s recent decline.

This situation does not automatically cause a new drop. However, it increases market sensitivity. If price falls sharply enough, platforms can close long positions whose margin becomes insufficient. These automatic sales may then accelerate the initial movement.

Options reveal increased demand for protection
The options market shows more marked caution. The 25 delta imbalance indicator, which compares the price of bearish protections to that of equivalent bullish bets, rose from 5.2% to 8.6% in one week.

This increase shows investors agree to pay more to protect themselves against a drop. Put options thus become more sought after, even though bitcoin’s daily movements remain relatively moderate.

The gap between anticipated volatility and actually observed volatility also went from -3.8% to +2.1%. The options market now expects stronger future fluctuations than those recently recorded.

This caution is explained by the persistent weakness of spot demand. The Glassnode indicator that measures the gap between aggressive purchases and sales worsened by 24.7%. Its balance dropped from -$67 million to -$83.6 million.

Daily volume has changed little, with a rise from $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion. Activity thus remains stable, but sellers increasingly dominate trading. This development does not confirm a sustainable accumulation capable of supporting leveraged long positions.

Glassnode describes a more defensive market, but not yet subject to extreme fear. The cost of protections rises, without reaching levels usually associated with panic periods.

The 80,000 dollar threshold becomes the main test
Bitcoin trades near $82,596. The $80,000 threshold has already attracted buyers since the October decline, but a new break could quickly change the balance.

Recent holders reinforce this vulnerability. The share of supply controlled by short-term investors rose from 14.5% to 14.7%, above its usual historical range. These actors often react faster to price changes.

The proportion of bitcoins held with unrealized gains also dropped from 70.1% to 68.2%. At the same time, the ratio between realized profits and losses fell from 0.8 to 0.4. Losses thus become more significant compared to gains realized.

A fall below $80,000 could push traders to voluntarily reduce their positions, then trigger forced liquidations if the movement accelerates. Conversely, a rebound supported by genuine spot purchases would reduce this risk.

The Federal Reserve meeting on October 27 and 28 constitutes the next catalyst. A stricter monetary policy could weigh on risky assets. The danger thus does not come only from a bitcoin drop but from the leverage accumulated by traders still waiting for its recovery.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Swiss regulator FINMA has approved the first individual investor ETF that invests directly in Bitcoin; the fund’s name and issuer have not been disclosed.

The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) has approved the first spot Bitcoin ETF to be offered to individual investors in the country. The new product will allow direct investment in Bitcoin and will operate under Swiss investment fund regulations.

Swiss exchanges have previously offered exchange-traded products (ETPs) linked to Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, most existing ETPs were legally structured as debt instruments. The newly approved ETF, however, will be subject to mutual fund regulations. This structure imposes different obligations in terms of custody, operational risks, investor information, and standards of conduct to be applied during the sale.

FINMA stated that Bitcoin has a longer transaction history and a much higher market capitalization compared to most other cryptocurrencies. Citing these characteristics, the regulator granted an exception to the general rule requiring funds to diversify their investments. This allowed the fund to focus directly on Bitcoin instead of spreading its investments across different assets.

The name of the approved fund and the company that will issue it have not yet been announced. FINMA stated that it does not share private information with institutions, but noted that other fund providers have also submitted Bitcoin ETF applications or announced plans to apply. Therefore, the approval does not mean that the product will immediately begin trading on exchanges.

FINMA also stressed that the decision does not eliminate the risks associated with Bitcoin investment. Fund documents will need to clearly explain price volatility, custody issues, and operational risks. According to the regulator, investors could lose a significant portion of their investments due to sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin.

*This is not investment advice.

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Fred Wilson, co-founder of venture firm Union Square Ventures, says the simplest bet on AI is energy, not tech stocks. After all, natural gas powers most new AI data centers, yet its price has barely moved.

That gap is now sparking debate online. Chip stocks have slumped this month, while the fuel behind the AI buildout still trades near its long-run range.

Why Investors Call Energy the Easier Bet on AIWilson made the case in a short clip shared on X.

“If you really want just a simple way to bet on AI and not have to think about all this other stuff, just bet on energy,”

One investor pushed the idea further. He said copper and power give traders cheap AI exposure, with deep markets and leverage. Still, he added that almost nobody cares.

In fact, copper has set record highs in 2026. Its supply is also tightening as AI demand squeezes copper. Still, softer industrial data from China, the largest copper buyer, has weighed on copper demand.

Tech, by contrast, has struggled. Chip stocks posted eight straight losing days last week, and Goldman named defensive stocks for nervous investors.

What Cheap Natural Gas Means for Investors Funny that basically all AI data centers are being run on natural gas but the cost of NG has been mostly flat or down. $UNL

— Nikita Bier (@nikitabier) October 21, 2026 Nikita Bier, the former head of product at X, raised a related point. He noted that gas runs almost every AI data center, yet its price stayed flat or fell.

The first part is largely true. The US has 1,391 operating data centers, and 2,819 more are planned. Gas makes up nearly 75% of planned on-site US data center power. Nuclear, fuel cells, and batteries supply the rest, giving investors other ways into the same trade.

However, the chart in the post needs context. The United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund (UNL) holds futures contracts. Rolling those contracts adds costs, so the fund has fallen far more than gas itself.

Planned On-Site Data Center Power by Source. Source: BeInCrypto Meanwhile, the US benchmark, Henry Hub, mostly stayed between $2 and $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last decade. Looking ahead, Wood Mackenzie expects it near $5 by 2035 as power demand climbs, World Oil reports.

Therefore, that forecast is the real test for anyone seeking a bet on AI outside tech stocks. The fight for cheap power is also reshaping Bitcoin mining cost math. If gas prices rise, energy producers could capture a larger share of AI spending than chipmakers do today.

JPMorgan Asset Management forecasts 10% annual Bitcoin ($BTC) returns over the long term versus 5.5% for gold, but flags 55% volatility as a barrier to portfolio use.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has issued its first long-term return forecast for Bitcoin $BTC, projecting a 10% compound annual return against 5.5% for gold.

Bitcoin forecast versus gold and stocks

The 10% figure is a base case rather than a guarantee.

Volatility keeps Bitcoin out of core modelsVolatility is the main hurdle.

The bank sees room for change. Those factors could support wider institutional use of $BTC.

Sources:

The Block: JPMorgan issues first long-term bitcoin return forecastDecrypt: JPMorgan puts a number on Bitcoin for the first timeBloomberg via Yahoo Finance: JPMorgan Asset Sees Bitcoin Beating Stocks, But With a Catch

Table of contents

Somewhere between the 7.5% figure pinned to U.S. large-cap stocks and the 5.5% beside gold, the 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions from J.P. Morgan Asset Management printed a number the document had never carried in its three-decade run: a 10.0% compound annual return for bitcoin over the next ten years. It is the highest forecast in the entire 78-page report, ahead of private equity, real estate, and every public equity and bond class the firm tracks. It also comes with a condition no other asset in the book has to satisfy. Bitcoin still does not make it into the firm’s main covariance matrices — the models that decide what actually ends up in a client’s portfolio.

Released October 19, the 31st edition of the firm’s LTCMAs covers more than 200 assets across more than 20 base currencies, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. The bitcoin entry is new, and so is the shape of the announcement around it: the firm names a return, then spends the following pages explaining why it is not yet comfortable acting on that number.

The Highest Number in the Book The headline comparison is not subtle. Bitcoin’s base case of 10.0% a year sits above U.S. large-cap equities at 7.5%, U.S. real estate investment trusts at 8.2%, private equity at 9.8%, and gold, unchanged at 5.5%. The report states the milestone in its own words: “And for the first time, we put a range on bitcoin returns, though we do not yet include bitcoin in our main covariance matrices.”

The range is wide on purpose. The base case is 10.0%, the bull case 16.6%, and the bear case a negative 11.2% a year. Those figures are a weighted blend of three forecasting frameworks that J.P. Morgan’s authors assembled at 65%, 30%, and 5% confidence respectively. The first, bitcoin supply growth against global money supply, yields 10.7% in the base case, 17.0% in the bull case, and -9.7% in the bear case. The second, the idea that investors rotate into bitcoin to complement gold in a portfolio, yields 10.7%, 17.3%, and -13.3%. The third, network adoption on the Bitcoin blockchain itself, is the sober one: -3.2% base, 6.1% bull, and -19.1% bear.

The numbers are anchored to a spot price of $83,000 as of September 30, 2026, the report’s data cutoff. Read generously, the message is that bitcoin’s supply schedule is doing most of the work, while its actual usage remains the weakest leg of the story.

What 55% Volatility Does to a 20.9% Average The gap that does the damage is between the arithmetic and the compound figure. J.P. Morgan puts bitcoin’s arithmetic average return at 20.9% a year, but its compound base case at only 10.0%. The missing 10.9 percentage points are volatility drag: a gain followed by a loss does not leave you where the simple average says it should, because each loss shrinks the base the next gain builds on. The culprit is an annualized volatility of 55.0%, roughly three times the 18.0% the firm assigns to U.S. large-cap equities and the 17.2% it assigns to gold.

That arithmetic invites a comparison the report stops short of making. Divide each asset’s compound return by its own volatility and bitcoin comes in last, not first. Bitcoin delivers 10.0% for 55.0% of risk, a ratio of about 0.18. Gold delivers 5.5% for 17.2% of risk, a ratio of 0.32. U.S. large-cap stocks deliver 7.5% for 18.0% of risk, a ratio of 0.42. On the only measure that matters to a portfolio builder — return per unit of risk — the highest-returning asset in the book is also the least efficient one.

The compounding picture tells the same story in dollars. Ten thousand dollars left to compound for a decade at bitcoin’s 10.0% base case becomes about $25,900. The same ten thousand at U.S. large-cap’s 7.5% becomes roughly $20,600, and at gold’s 5.5% about $17,100. Bitcoin wins on paper, but an investor has to sit through three times the volatility to collect the extra five thousand dollars.

A Forecast, Not an Allocation The authors of the bitcoin chapter are blunt about what the number does and does not permit. “At the moment, we do not make a case for bitcoin (BTC) as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations,” they write. “We see bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.” The hedging language is deliberate: a forecast is not a recommendation, and a return range is not a seat in the allocation model.

The macroeconomic chapter reinforces the same point. “The volatility and unstable correlation of assets like bitcoin (BTC) remain an obstacle to their widespread inclusion in portfolios,” it states, before noting that the firm nevertheless built a separate, smaller covariance matrix pairing bitcoin against a subset of core assets. That standalone table is the compromise: the data exists, but it sits one layer removed from the matrices that drive actual position sizing.

The distance between the forecast and the portfolio is the story’s real tension. It is one thing for a bank to say an asset will return 10% a year. It is another to buy it. J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s parent, through its funds, has already been moving in that direction on a small scale — its reported bitcoin ETF stake reached $356 million in the second quarter — yet the long-term models stop short of treating bitcoin as a building block. The forecast and the allocation, in other words, are being kept in different rooms.

The Bull Case the Firm Keeps at Arm’s Length None of this means the report is dismissive of bitcoin. The bull case of 16.6% a year is the best outcome the firm models, and the context it supplies argues that adoption is real rather than rhetorical. The report sizes the entire crypto asset class at more than $2.5 trillion, roughly the value of the Swiss stock market or the whole private credit market. Tokenized money market funds alone it values near $40 billion, “with scope for rapid growth.”

The institutional plumbing is the quieter part of the case. The chapter lists exchange-traded funds, futures, publicly traded crypto companies, options, and bank-grade custody as the infrastructure now making the asset investable. Around a tenth of family offices surveyed for J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s 2026 Global Family Office Report said their portfolios already held crypto, and 17% planned to prioritize it. BlackRock has been building on the same rails — it filed for its third bitcoin ETF, this one with downside protection, in October — and that demand is precisely the tailwind the report’s bull case leans on.

What the report declines to do is convert that momentum into a strategic case. Bitcoin “lacks a strategic role in portfolios other than as a bet on fiat currency expansion or future asset trading on blockchains,” the chapter concludes. That is a narrower claim than the 10% headline suggests, and it is worth reading the two sentences together.

What Would Change J.P. Morgan’s Mind The report names its own conditions. “Although we think it is premature to create a 10-year forecast for bitcoin or to integrate it into our covariance matrices,” the chapter says, “examining its potential range of outcomes is instructive.” The word “premature” is doing the analytical work here: this is a first pass, not a final position.

For the position to change, three things would have to move. Correlations with other assets would need to stabilize, so that bitcoin stops behaving like a high-beta equity that occasionally resembles digital gold. Volatility would need to come down from 55%, since the drag it imposes is the single largest reason the arithmetic return collapses by more than half. And regulatory clarity would need to improve, which the report lists alongside market depth, liquidity, and price discovery as the factors that would “aid in its evolution.”

Until then, the guidance is precise rather than vague: “exposures to BTC should continue to be scrutinized carefully and portfolios with any allocation stress tested thoroughly against both bull and bear cases for BTC returns.” It is a forecast with guardrails, which is exactly what a first number from a firm of this size should be.

The result is a document that does two things at once. It tells the market that bitcoin, at 10.0% a year, is the highest-returning asset it can name over the next decade. And it tells its own portfolio managers that the number is not yet a reason to buy. The next editions of the LTCMAs — and whether bitcoin migrates from the standalone matrix into the main one — will reveal which half of that sentence the firm actually believes.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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11h05 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by Ghiles A.

Summarize this article with:

For more than ten years, 6,000 bitcoins linked to an Irish drug dealer seemed partly lost forever. Yet, on October 20, a new transaction reignited attention around this forgotten fortune. A wallet associated with Clifton Collins transferred 500 BTC, about 41.52 million dollars, to Coinbase Prime. This operation is part of a series of movements that raise questions about the fate of the funds and the missing private keys.

In brief A wallet linked to Clifton Collins transferred 500 BTC, or 41.52 million dollars, to Coinbase Prime. This fortune comes from a reserve of 6,000 BTC accumulated at the end of 2011 and early 2012. Collins is said to have lost access to his bitcoins after the disappearance of the private keys hidden in a fishing rod case. The October 20 transfer marks the fifth 500 BTC operation linked to this fortune since early 2026. A 41.52 million dollar transaction after ten years of inactivity On October 20, a wallet linked to Clifton Collins transferred 500 BTC to Coinbase Prime, Coinbase’s institutional trading platform. The blockchain analysis company Lookonchain reported this operation, which represents approximately 41.52 million dollars. This movement comes after more than a decade without any apparent activity on the concerned funds. It thus draws attention to a fortune long considered inaccessible.

These 500 units come from a batch of 6,000 bitcoins that Collins had accumulated at the end of 2011 and early 2012. At that time, the bitcoin price was only a few dollars. The value of this reserve later increased significantly with the market. However, Collins is said to have lost access to his funds after the disappearance of the private keys that enabled control.

This transaction is not an isolated event in this case. Indeed, several transfers of 500 BTC linked to this fortune have occurred during 2026. The Irish authorities have also recovered several portions of these assets. The new movement to Coinbase Prime thus raises questions about how the funds became accessible again.

How Clifton Collins allegedly lost access to his bitcoin fortune A former beekeeper in Dublin, Clifton Collins reportedly built his reserve through cannabis cultivation. Given the rise in the value of his holdings, he sought to better protect his funds against hacking risks. To do this, Collins divided his 6,000 Bitcoins into twelve distinct wallets. Each contained exactly 500 units, according to the account of this story.

Collins is said to have printed his private keys on an A4 sheet. He reportedly hid this document in the aluminum cap of a fishing rod case. This object was in a house he rented in County Galway. This storage method thus relied on the physical preservation of an essential item for accessing the funds.

In 2017, the Irish police arrested Collins after they found cannabis in his car. He was later sentenced to five years in prison. During his incarceration, burglars emptied the apartment he rented and his personal belongings ended up at the local dump. The case that allegedly contained the private keys disappeared, potentially depriving Collins of access to his reserve.

Irish authorities recover several 500 Bitcoin batches In March 2026, the Irish Criminal Assets Bureau (CAB) announced that it had gained access to a wallet containing 500 Bitcoins. Europol’s European Cybercrime Centre aided this operation. It indicated that some funds linked to Collins could still be recovered. However, available information does not specify how each wallet became accessible again.

Recoveries continued in the following months. At the end of May, the authorities seized an additional 500 BTC, then another batch of the same size in July. On August 28, 500 more BTC, valued at about 39.56 million dollars, were transferred to Coinbase Prime. These operations progressively changed the status of a fortune long associated with the loss of private keys.

The October 20 transfer thus represents the fifth operation this year concerning a 500 BTC batch from wallets linked to Collins. Nevertheless, the observed movements alone do not establish that the entire 6,000 BTC is now accessible. They also do not specify who currently controls each concerned wallet. Monitoring upcoming transactions will provide deeper understanding of the evolution of this asset recovery.

The new transaction thus highlights again the fate of this bitcoin reserve, built more than ten years ago. If recoveries continue, an increasing share of funds could leave inactivity and join institutional platforms. However, the fate of other wallets remains uncertain. Upcoming transfers will be critical to measure the real extent of the recovered assets and clarify the fate of this fortune.

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Ghiles A.

Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

UK High Court approves appeal by Chinese victims in the Qian Zhimin case over property rights to more than 60,000 Bitcoin.

According to Caixin, just four days after the UK High Court of Justice ruled that the property rights dispute over more than 60,000 bitcoins in the Qian Zhimin case is subject to Chinese law, around 16,000 Chinese victims participating in the UK asset recovery process have been granted the chance to challenge the ruling further. The UK High Court held a fresh hearing, with the judge approving the Chinese victims’ appeal against the October 12 ruling on applicable law. Lawyers from all parties also discussed issues including litigation costs related to the earlier applicable law dispute, whether the approximately 16,000 individual claimants will continue to pursue their claims, and how to opt out of the proceedings.

4 minutes ago

Analyst: Short-term Bitcoin whales' unrealized profit falls 53%, with over 10,000 BTC transferred to CEX in a single day.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a post that Bitcoin short-term whales’ unrealized profit dropped 53% from a record $9.8 billion on September 22 to $4.6 billion on October 20, though the whales remain profitable. On the same day, whales transferred 10,605 BTC to centralized exchanges (CEXs), the highest single-day volume since October 8, roughly 2.8 times the 3,815 BTC average daily amount over the past 30 days. The decline in unrealized profit does not indicate reduced holdings, nor do transfers to exchanges equal actual sales, but analysts point out that the increased inflow signals a rising potential sell-off risk.

4 minutes ago

Crypto market liquidity crunch: Binance's stablecoin reserves hit their lowest level of the year.

According to crypto analyst Darkfost's data, centralized exchange (CEX) stablecoin reserves have been declining recently, with Binance's stablecoin reserves hitting their lowest level this year. Data shows Binance's stablecoin market capitalization has been on a downward trend since June, dropping approximately 4.7% over the past 90 days. Darkfost also pointed out that the decline in stablecoin reserves is not unique to Binance. This stablecoin outflow dynamic will continue to exert pressure on the market, and the lack of inflowing liquidity is exacerbating the current market weakness. To reverse the situation, the market needs to see capital flowing back into CEXs, which is a sign of demand recovery.

4 minutes ago

Zcash developers confirm the NU7 upgrade will roll out in November, cutting the block time to 25 seconds.

Zcash developers have reached consensus on the NU7 upgrade, set to activate at block height 3,543,405 (estimated around November 5). The upgrade will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling transaction confirmation speed. Additionally, 60% of fees collected per block will be removed from circulation, with plans to return these funds to miners starting February 2031, while the original block reward halving schedule remains unchanged in the interim. Furthermore, Zcash’s original privacy protocol Sprout will be permanently shut down after the upgrade; funds not transferred in time will become inaccessible. The proposal was put forward by developer Sean Bowe and approved by the Zcash Improvement Proposal (ZIP) editing team, but it still needs to be formally merged into deployment specifications and integrated into node software before it can officially take effect.

4 minutes ago

US pre-market trading: All three major indices rise, SpaceX surges nearly 9% pre-market, and AI stocks rebound sharply.

Before U.S. stock market opens, all three major index futures rose, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up around 0.80%. In terms of individual stocks, according to BIT (bit.com) market data, boosted by strong quarterly results, SpaceX gained nearly 9% to $161.08. Additionally, driven by merger rumors, Tesla rose 2.67% to $383.68. AI-related stocks mostly advanced before the market open: Nvidia was up 1.8%, AMD up 2.5%, Intel up 2.9%, SanDisk up 2.9%, Western Digital up 2.1%, and Seagate Technology up 2.4%. Meanwhile, optical communications and Neocloud-related stocks saw notable gains: Credo (CRDO) jumped over 5.2%, Lumentum (LITE) rose around 3.98%, and CoreWeave (CRWV) gained around 2.95%. For crypto-related stocks, BNB Standard (BNC) surged over 7.8%, and Strategy (MSTR) added around 1.99%.

4 minutes ago

Sources: Bank of Japan will decide at next week's meeting whether inflation has reached the 2% target.

According to Kyodo News, a source familiar with the matter revealed on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will assess whether the underlying inflation rate has hit its 2% target at next week’s policy meeting. A confirmation would mark a symbolic turning point for the BOJ, signaling an end to its long-standing monetary policy stance aimed at combating deflation. The BOJ first set the 2% inflation target in January 2013. Despite implementing aggressive monetary easing programs, the central bank has repeatedly pushed back its timeline for achieving the goal. If the target is ultimately met, it will come nearly 14 years after the target was first introduced.

4 minutes ago

CRCL Stock faces fresh economic uncertainty ahead of Thursday’s U.S. jobless claims report, with cryptocurrency prices showing early stability. 

Bitcoin price traded near $83,000 on Wednesday, while Ethereum hovered around $2,450 and XRP held near $1.34. The employment release could reshape interest rate expectations before the Federal Reserve announces its next policy decision.

U.S. Jobless Claims Report-Oct 22
The Labor Department’s next weekly jobless claims report arrives Thursday, October 22, ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The previous release showed 199,000 initial claims for the week ending October 10, up 1,000 from the revised preceding week. That reading provides a comparison point as markets assess whether layoffs are increasing.

An unexpected increase in claims could strengthen concerns about slower hiring and rising unemployment. It might also give rise to monetary policy easing expectations if inflation data and other indicators of employment conditions continue to evolve favorably. However, if it suddenly and significantly deteriorates, it might dampen appetite for volatile stocks and put pressure on CRCL Stock.

Crypto Stability and Fed Policy Shape CRCL Stock Outlook
Circle Internet Group, the USDC issuer, earns reserve income that responds to changes in interest rates. Consequently, lower rates could improve market sentiment while reducing the yields available on Circle’s reserve assets. Circle’s first-quarter results showed that lower reserve yields partly offset the income benefit from higher average USDC circulation.

The Federal Reserve meets October 27–28, placing the upcoming claims and PMI reports immediately before its next decision. Policymakers announce their decision on October 28 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, followed by a 2:30 p.m. press conference. Further guidance about employment and inflation could influence rate expectations and the near-term direction of CRCL Stock.

Fedwatch data
Friday’s S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI reports will offer another assessment of business activity and price pressures. 

CRCL Stock Prediction: Will CRCL Reach $90?
The supplied trading range places initial resistance at $86, with $87 and $88 marking the next potential hurdles. A sustained breakout above those levels could strengthen the case for a move toward the psychological $90 mark. A move from $86 to $90 would represent a gain of approximately 4.7%.

CRCL stock
However, buyers would need to maintain that breakout as markets respond to Thursday’s employment data and Friday’s PMI releases. Holding above former resistance would offer stronger evidence of buying demand than an isolated intraday price spike. A quick reversal below $86 would weaken the bullish case and raise the prospect of another support test.

On the downside, $81 provides the first reference level if buying momentum weakens after the employment report. A decline below that level could expose $80, followed by the recent $79 low. A sustained break beneath $79 could open a path toward $75, extending the downside scenario beyond the recent range.

Crypto market liquidity crunch: Binance's stablecoin reserves hit their lowest level of the year.

According to crypto analyst Darkfost's data, centralized exchange (CEX) stablecoin reserves have been declining recently, with Binance's stablecoin reserves hitting their lowest level this year. Data shows Binance's stablecoin market capitalization has been on a downward trend since June, dropping approximately 4.7% over the past 90 days. Darkfost also pointed out that the decline in stablecoin reserves is not unique to Binance. This stablecoin outflow dynamic will continue to exert pressure on the market, and the lack of inflowing liquidity is exacerbating the current market weakness. To reverse the situation, the market needs to see capital flowing back into CEXs, which is a sign of demand recovery.

10 minutes ago

Zcash developers confirm the NU7 upgrade will roll out in November, cutting the block time to 25 seconds.

Zcash developers have reached consensus on the NU7 upgrade, set to activate at block height 3,543,405 (estimated around November 5). The upgrade will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling transaction confirmation speed. Additionally, 60% of fees collected per block will be removed from circulation, with plans to return these funds to miners starting February 2031, while the original block reward halving schedule remains unchanged in the interim. Furthermore, Zcash’s original privacy protocol Sprout will be permanently shut down after the upgrade; funds not transferred in time will become inaccessible. The proposal was put forward by developer Sean Bowe and approved by the Zcash Improvement Proposal (ZIP) editing team, but it still needs to be formally merged into deployment specifications and integrated into node software before it can officially take effect.

10 minutes ago

US pre-market trading: All three major indices rise, SpaceX surges nearly 9% pre-market, and AI stocks rebound sharply.

Before U.S. stock market opens, all three major index futures rose, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up around 0.80%. In terms of individual stocks, according to BIT (bit.com) market data, boosted by strong quarterly results, SpaceX gained nearly 9% to $161.08. Additionally, driven by merger rumors, Tesla rose 2.67% to $383.68. AI-related stocks mostly advanced before the market open: Nvidia was up 1.8%, AMD up 2.5%, Intel up 2.9%, SanDisk up 2.9%, Western Digital up 2.1%, and Seagate Technology up 2.4%. Meanwhile, optical communications and Neocloud-related stocks saw notable gains: Credo (CRDO) jumped over 5.2%, Lumentum (LITE) rose around 3.98%, and CoreWeave (CRWV) gained around 2.95%. For crypto-related stocks, BNB Standard (BNC) surged over 7.8%, and Strategy (MSTR) added around 1.99%.

10 minutes ago

Sources: Bank of Japan will decide at next week's meeting whether inflation has reached the 2% target.

According to Kyodo News, a source familiar with the matter revealed on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will assess whether the underlying inflation rate has hit its 2% target at next week’s policy meeting. A confirmation would mark a symbolic turning point for the BOJ, signaling an end to its long-standing monetary policy stance aimed at combating deflation. The BOJ first set the 2% inflation target in January 2013. Despite implementing aggressive monetary easing programs, the central bank has repeatedly pushed back its timeline for achieving the goal. If the target is ultimately met, it will come nearly 14 years after the target was first introduced.

10 minutes ago

How important are Russian users to major CEXs, per data comparisons?

MEXC announced yesterday it would halt services for users in Russia and Belarus, triggering a roughly 15% drop in its native platform token MX and sparking widespread debate in the crypto community. According to TradingBeats data, among major crypto exchanges, Russia is the top traffic source for Bybit, HTX, and MEXC, accounting for 23.94%, 13.76%, and 10.53% respectively. On Binance, the largest exchange by trading volume, Russian traffic ranks only third from the bottom, at 1.54%. U.S.-based compliant exchanges Coinbase and Kraken have the lowest share of Russian traffic, at just 0.24% and 0.16% respectively.

10 minutes ago

Saturn participated in Strive SATS' preferred stock IPO using its own funds.

DeFi digital credit protocol Saturn co-founder Ellis Osborn tweeted that Saturn has used its own funds to participate in the SATS preferred stock IPO of Bitcoin treasury company Strive, adding that this participation will not impact USDat, sUSDat, Saturn’s existing products or holders. Osborn noted that Saturn will in the future explore offering similar tools to its global investors.
Earlier reports stated that Strive issued SATS, a fixed-rate cumulative perpetual preferred stock with a 15% annual yield, which pays dividends on every business day. Its liquidation priority ranks below Strive’s floating-rate preferred stock SATA and above common stock ASST. Strive priced the SATS offering at $90 per share, issuing 7 million shares to raise approximately $630 million, with the deal closing on October 20.

10 minutes ago

Germany's Sparkasse network has started crypto trading in its banking app via DekaBank, covering Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana and Polygon's POL, with a staggered bank-by-bank rollout.

Germany's Sparkasse banking network has begun rolling out crypto trading inside its banking app, bringing Bitcoin ($BTC), Ether ($ETH, @ethereum), XRP ($XRP, @XRP), Solana ($SOL, @solana) and Polygon's POL token ($POL, @0xPolygon) to customers of Europe's largest banking group by assets.

The service went live on October 19, 2026, but access is not yet nationwide. Each local savings bank must switch it on individually, so only customers of participating institutions can use it for now.

How the Sparkasse crypto service worksThe product is called "Krypto, powered by Deka" and is run by DekaBank, the securities house of the Sparkassen group. According to Bloomberg, the rollout will be gradual over the coming months, and each Sparkasse decides on its own whether to offer it. DekaBank handles trade execution and custody. Customers open a separate crypto account with DekaBank inside the app's investing section, and a securities account is not required.

The fee is reported at €0.99 per order. DekaBank's announcement does not detail other costs such as spreads, according to fund research outlet e-fundresearch. Reporting also says the service is aimed at adult, self-directed investors and that no investment advice is given.

Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe is described as the largest financial services group in Germany and Europe by assets. Crypto assets held through the service are not covered by statutory deposit insurance, BeInCrypto notes.

Rollout pace and regulatory backdropOnly a handful of banks were live at launch. More than 230 institutions have reportedly expressed interest, and 30 to 40 additional banks are expected to join each month. Joachim Schmalzl of the German Savings Banks Association (DSGV) said it is for each savings bank to decide when to start, according to dpa. The association is aiming for a large share of interested banks to be connected in the first half of 2027.

The move marks a reversal for the group. Bloomberg reports that the Sparkassen long rejected crypto offerings and that its bodies recommended against crypto trading about four years ago because of the risks. The shift was justified by customer demand and a changed regulatory framework.

DekaBank received its licence under the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets rules (MiCA) from Germany's BaFin in 2025, which lets it bundle trading, custody and customer support in one place, according to Bloomberg and e-fundresearch.

Sources:

Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance: Deka startet Bitcoin-Handel nach Sparkassen-Richtungsschwenke-fundresearch: DekaBank startet Kryptohandel fuer Sparkassen-Kunden

Memecoin investor Murad has said the crypto bull cycle has yet to begin, with Bitcoin trading near $82,000 after U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $526.7 million in daily inflows.

Summary

Murad said crypto’s bull cycle has not begun, without giving a timeline or price target.
Bitcoin ETFs drew $526.7 million on Oct. 19, reducing October’s net outflows to $88 million.
Glassnode’s preceding weekly data showed continued selling despite stronger demand for bullish futures exposure.
Binance’s historical study found four of five rebounds following shallow drawdowns later broke their previous lows.

Murad’s Oct. 20 X post declared that the market’s main advance remained ahead, without setting a price target or giving a timeline.

“The Crypto Bull Cycle hasn’t even begun yet.”

The post had drawn approximately 66,000 views, 1,500 likes, 240 reposts and 329 replies when captured. His statement offered no supporting market data or definition of what would mark the beginning of a bull cycle.

After retreating from nearly $83,000, Bitcoin was down 1.2% over 24 hours at $81,730.70 earlier on Oct. 20, as crypto.news reported on Oct. 20.

The same technical assessment identified $82,587 and $83,457 as recovery levels on the 4-hour chart, with potential support at $81,144 and $80,000.

Crypto bull cycle claim meets a rebound in ETF buying
Farside Investors’ daily table showed $526.7 million in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Oct. 19, following $228.4 million in net withdrawals across the preceding five trading sessions.

BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $665.2 million in subscriptions. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $83.6 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC recorded $54.9 million in withdrawals. The remaining funds listed in the table recorded no net flows that day.

Calculations from Farside’s published daily totals put October’s cumulative net withdrawals at $614.7 million through Oct. 16. Monday’s inflow reduced that shortfall to $88 million through Oct. 19.

The single session therefore more than offset the previous week’s withdrawals, although the month remained negative. IBIT’s subscriptions exceeded the combined net inflow because redemptions at FBTC and GBTC absorbed part of the money entering the fund group.

Farside’s Oct. 20 row still contained missing fund entries when checked. Its displayed zero did not represent a completed trading session with no inflows or outflows.

Bitcoin positioning still showed selling pressure
Glassnode’s Oct. 19 Market Pulse reported that selling had eased during the week to Oct. 18, while spot and ETF demand remained weak. Its measurement period preceded the Oct. 19 ETF inflow.

Across the derivatives indicators, futures open interest slipped from $36.5 billion to $36.4 billion. Long-side funding payments rose from $1.1 million to $1.6 million, which the analytics firm described as renewed willingness to pay for bullish exposure.

Perpetual futures cumulative volume delta improved from negative $891.1 million to negative $562.7 million, according to Glassnode. Aggressive sellers still outweighed buyers despite the smaller negative reading.

Spot cumulative volume delta moved in the opposite direction, falling from negative $67 million to negative $83.6 million. Glassnode characterized the change as continued aggressive selling on centralized exchanges.

On-chain fees and transfer volume each fell roughly 10%, while active addresses remained stable. Options positioning showed continued demand for downside protection, with 25-delta skew rising and implied volatility moving above realized volatility.

Earlier Bitcoin rebounds have produced mixed outcomes
Historical research offers a separate counterpoint to claims that a recovery confirms a new cycle.

Binance Research examined seven episodes between 2011 and 2023 when Bitcoin closed at least 40% above its cycle low while remaining at least 25% below its previous record, according to Oct. 5 coverage of its historical Bitcoin rebound study.

Five signals followed drawdowns of 30% to 38%. Four subsequently broke their previous cycle lows within 43 days, while the July 2021 case held.

The two successful signals followed deeper declines of 75.5% in April 2019 and 67.1% in January 2023. Both eventually reached new highs without first breaking their cycle lows.

Binance cautioned that seven cases were too few to form a reliable forecasting model. Its researchers called the findings a “base rate rather than a forecast.”

Analysts have offered competing cycle readings
Fidelity had warned in September that Bitcoin’s August rally could represent either a lasting recovery or a temporary advance during a continuing bear market, according to coverage of its fourth-quarter crypto market outlook.

The firm said July might already have produced the low, while leaving open the possibility of another decline in November or later.

A bullish interpretation appeared in September coverage of CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju’s Bitcoin bull cycle forecast. He expected a full-cycle gain of three to five times, arguing that institutional ownership and a larger market could reduce the extremes seen in earlier cycles.

Fidelity Digital Assets says perpetual preferred stock has financed purchases of 135,979 Bitcoin, making the funding model used by treasury companies another source of demand for the cryptocurrency.

Summary

Preferred-stock issuance financed 135,979 BTC in purchases through Oct. 5, Fidelity said. The funding model depends on Bitcoin’s gains exceeding the cost of dividend payments. Preferred shareholders face issuer, liquidity and interest-rate risks alongside Bitcoin exposure. An Oct. 20 report by research analyst Zack Wainwright said the purchases represented more than 0.5% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply as of Oct. 5. The report names Strategy and draws on filings from Strive.

Companies issue dividend-paying preferred shares and use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. Fidelity links the approach to an investment thesis that Bitcoin’s limited supply could help preserve purchasing power as fiat currencies lose value.

The report also makes the model’s central assumption explicit.

“For issuers, the strategy only works if the appreciation of the underlying asset outpaces the cost of yield.”

Preferred issuance financed more than 95,000 BTC in purchases between March and May, raising over $7 billion. Fidelity compared that demand with the 888,185 BTC accumulated by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products in their first year.

Preferred shareholders face a different set of risks from investors holding Bitcoin directly. Fidelity’s separate investor guidance explains that preferred securities combine characteristics of stocks and debt, with terms that vary by offering.

Perpetual securities have no scheduled maturity, while some preferred offerings allow issuers to suspend or defer payments. Holders generally rank ahead of common shareholders but below bondholders if the company fails.

Fidelity’s guidance also identifies inflation risk for preferred shareholders because rising prices can reduce the purchasing power of future dividend payments. Higher market interest rates typically push existing preferred-security prices lower, and limited trading liquidity can force investors to sell below face value.

The Bitcoin report consequently ties the preferred-stock model’s success to both the cryptocurrency’s long-term performance and the financial condition of the companies issuing the shares.

Wall Street has found a new way to buy Bitcoin, and it looks a lot like something your grandparents owned. According to a report from Fidelity Digital Assets, perpetual preferred stocks issued by Bitcoin treasury companies have financed the purchase of 135,979 BTC in just over a year.

That figure, measured as of October 5, 2026, represents more than 0.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

The report, published October 20, 2026, frames these instruments as a real source of demand for Bitcoin. It also positions them as a bridge to the much larger world of fixed-income investors.

The numbers behind the preferred stock push
Think of a perpetual preferred stock as a bond that never matures. Investors hand over cash, the company pays them a steady dividend, and there is no date when the principal comes back.

For Bitcoin treasury companies, that structure is useful. They raise money from income-focused investors and use it to buy more Bitcoin, without issuing new common shares or taking on traditional debt.

The pace picked up sharply in 2026. Between March and May, issuers raised more than $7 billion through these offerings, according to Fidelity.

That capital went toward more than 95,000 BTC during those three months alone.

April was the peak. Fidelity’s data shows nearly 30,000 BTC were purchased in one week that month.

How it stacks up against spot ETPs
Fidelity was careful not to oversell the comparison with spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products. Those funds launched in January 2024 and gathered 888,185 BTC in their first year.

Fidelity’s argument is about who these products reach, not raw volume. The firm sees perpetual preferred equity as a way to tap the broader fixed-income market, which it estimates at around $150 trillion.

Fidelity also asserts that these vehicles can offer yields that surpass many traditional cash equivalents.

Where this trend came from
The model traces back to Strategy, which launched its first perpetual preferred stock product in July 2025. That issuance opened the door for others, including Strive, which Fidelity names alongside Strategy as a pioneer of the structure.

Fidelity has been building this thesis for a while. In commentary from September 2026, the firm highlighted the potential of preferred equity as a form of Bitcoin-backed digital credit, pointing to its appeal for fixed-income investors.

What this means for Bitcoin demand
Money raised through perpetual preferreds goes directly into Bitcoin purchases, so every successful offering translates into buying pressure on the open market.

Still, the model carries risks worth watching. Perpetual preferred stocks come with ongoing dividend obligations, and those payments do not stop just because Bitcoin’s price falls.

Issuers are effectively promising fixed income backed by a volatile asset. If Bitcoin enters a prolonged downturn, the market will test whether that promise holds up and whether investors keep lining up for new issuances.

For investors, the key metrics to track are the volume of new preferred issuance and how much of it converts into Bitcoin purchases. The yields these products offer relative to cash equivalents will also signal whether fixed-income buyers stay interested.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Arkansas wanted to keep certain foreign-controlled companies out of its Bitcoin mining industry. For now, the federal courts are keeping that plan on the shelf.

The state’s restrictions on foreign ownership of digital asset mining operations remain blocked. The US Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit is deciding whether that block should stay in place.

What the Arkansas law does
The fight centers on two state laws: Act 636 from 2023 and Act 174 from 2024. Together, they bar businesses controlled by foreign parties tied to countries on the US International Traffic in Arms Regulations list from holding interests in local digital asset mining enterprises.

Act 174 took effect in May 2024. It specifically prohibits foreign-party-controlled businesses from acquiring interests in digital asset mining operations.

The challenge came from Jones Eagle LLC, a company run by Qimin “Jimmy” Chen. Chen is a naturalized US citizen who was born in China. His company argues the Arkansas laws are preempted by federal law covering foreign affairs and foreign investment.

How the case got here
Jones Eagle won the early rounds. Federal District Judge Kristine G. Baker issued a temporary restraining order in November 2024. She followed it with a preliminary injunction in December 2024.

The court found the plaintiffs were likely to succeed on their claims against the restrictions. It also pointed to the risk of irreparable harm tied to investigations targeting foreign-owned entities.

The injunction was later expanded in April 2025. Arkansas officials then took the matter up to the Eighth Circuit, asking the appeals court to vacate the lower court’s order.

The Eighth Circuit heard arguments on January 14-15, 2026, and again on October 20, 2026. Following that second session, the court has been weighing the state’s request. It has not issued a final determination on the injunction.

Arkansas argues the laws are about land use, a classic area of state authority, and that the laws align with federal national security policy rather than contradicting it.

A broader fight over mining in Arkansas
Foreign ownership is not the only front. Jones Eagle has also been caught up in disputes over local noise rules. Shortly after a federal injunction was secured against local noise ordinances, Jones Eagle faced a $280,000 penalty order.

What this means for miners and states
The most direct stakes fall on mining companies with foreign ties. If the Eighth Circuit leaves the injunction in place, operators like Jones Eagle can keep running while the underlying case proceeds.

If the appeals court sides with Arkansas, the state could begin enforcing its restrictions. Other states considering similar measures would have a roadmap, and potentially a precedent, to point to.

The legal arguments will likely turn on characterization. Arkansas says it is regulating land. Jones Eagle says the state is conducting foreign policy. Whichever description the Eighth Circuit accepts will probably decide the outcome.

What to watch next is the Eighth Circuit’s decision on the state’s request to vacate the injunction. That ruling will not end the case, since the preliminary injunction is a placeholder rather than a verdict. It will, however, determine whether Arkansas’s restrictions stay frozen while the litigation continues.

Disclosure: This article was edited by John Chen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

David Pan****_ _writes about how digital-asset treasury companies are offering even higher yields to attract investors and sustain their crypto-buying strategies._ _

Different paradigm
The Bitcoin treasury trade is proving hard to kill. The latest sign: Companies stockpiling the cryptocurrency are finding ways to keep the money flowing by tapping into investors’ appetite for steady income, even as cracks emerge in the financing model that helped fuel the boom.

The latest pitch rests on preferred shares that offer payouts resembling those of the riskiest junk bonds, while packaged as alternatives to far safer cash investments.

Strive Inc., which has been buying Bitcoin lately at a faster pace than Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc., closed an offering of $630 million in preferred shares on Tuesday. The amount raised was around 25% higher than the initial size of the deal.

As with most securities, the increased demand appears to be a matter of price. The preferred stock was issued at an annual yield of 15% and offered at a discount, resulting in an effective yield of almost 17%.

That’s more than triple what you earn on a top-rated one-year US Treasury note, and comparable to distressed debt returns. Last week, CoreWeave Inc. shook capital markets when its bond yields surged to 15% — a level that is practically unheard of in the primary market for traditional securities.

“It is a different paradigm,” said Himanshu Sahay, co-founder of Arch Lending.

The success of the Strive transaction underscores the enduring appetite for income, especially among the retail cohort. For companies accumulating Bitcoin, which generates no income of its own, that demand offers a way to keep raising capital despite growing strains on the model.

“Yes, our new product SATS carries a 15% dividend, but the headline yield is the wrong place to start,” said Jeff Walton, Strive’s chief risk officer. “Any credit investor looking at a preferred should ask two questions: what sits ahead of it in the capital structure, and how is the dividend funded?”

Walton noted that Strive has no outstanding debt, and has as an 18-month dividend reserve as well as about $3 billion in Bitcoin on its balance sheet.

Strategy (@Strategy) on X
While Strategy holds around $70 billion of the cryptocurrency, the borrow-to-buy-Bitcoin model that Saylor pioneered has faltered.

Strategy hasn’t sold any of its 12% STRC preferred shares since the price collapsed in June, making it potentially uneconomic to issue more. On Monday, the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin increased the size of its preferred buyback by 50% to $3 billion, with the goal of meeting its stated objective of making the securities its primary funding source. In the meantime, it continues to sell common stock to buy Bitcoin, diluting existing shareholders.

Strategy did not respond to requests for comment.

The Strive preferred came with another enticement: daily dividends, a feature that could appeal to retail investors seeking a steady stream of income.

Seeking a way to jumpstart demand for STRC, Strategy has asked shareholders to approve a measure at the end of the month that would allow dividend payments on the securities to be made daily.

In a way, the push to offer daily payments on “digital credit” taps into the same demand that spurred a surge in income-generating ETFs over the past few years. Investors have flocked to them for their steady cash flows, while also embracing the convenience of packaged complex trades that are easy to access via one wrapper.

Saylor came under criticism in the past for STRC being marketed as comparable to money market securities, but with junk-bond level returns. Whether switching to daily payments revives that pushback or restarts his stalled infinite-money glitch remains to be seen.

With investors demanding higher compensation across markets, that may come sooner rather than later.

“Investors worry about return of capital, as well as return on capital,” said Helen Thomas, chief executive officer of BlondeMoney. “Liquidity and reliability matter. Innovative products by their nature have a shorter time period to be stress tested. Some vehicles may not survive.”

Charting it out

Raising capital for new investment funds remains difficult. Investors allocated about $3.9 billion to five new crypto-focused venture funds in the second quarter, the fewest new funds raised since the last quarter of 2019, according to Galaxy Research.

Counting it out

That’s how long Brendan Tonks, a 44-year-old plumber in South Sydney, said it took to send money to his family in the Philippines after switching to stablecoins, compared with his previous experience of three days while using Western Union a couple of years ago. He said his first transfer this new way also cost only a small fraction of what he had paid through the traditional service.

Hearing them out
What we’re reading (and writing)

Private Jets, Investor Pressure Push Polymarket CEO to Grow Up
Four-Minute Transfers Upend How Money Moves Around the World
Crypto Vaults Channels Billions of Dollars Into Risky Lending (FT)
JPMorgan Asset Sees Bitcoin Beating Stocks, But With a Catch
Companies Are Balking at ‘Tokenized’ Stocks (WSJ)
Odd Lots Newsletter: Maybe We Were Wrong About Blockchain

What we’re watching on Bloomberg TV
Adam Back, co-founder & CEO Blockstream, joins Scarlet Fu and James Seyffart on “Bloomberg Crypto.” The Liquid Network, a Bitcoin-linked blockchain started by Blockstream in 2018, was hit by a $320 million hack that drained about 4,000 Bitcoin. The hackers, who claimed to be so-called white hats exposing security flaws in the network, later returned some of the Bitcoin.

More from Bloomberg

Markets Daily for what’s moving in stocks, bonds, FX and commodities
Banking Monitor for staying on top of the global banking industry with emerging trends, winners and losers and market opportunities.
CFO Briefing for Nina Trentmann’s weekly newsletter on what finance leaders need to know
Going Private for coverage of private markets and the forces moving capital away from the public eye
Money Stuff for Bloomberg Opinion’s Matt Levine’s newsletter on all things Wall Street and finance

Explore all Bloomberg newsletters.

In brief
J.P. Morgan Asset Management projected a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years, its first long-term forecast for the asset.
That tops its forecasts for U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5%) and gold (5.5%), but comes with 55% annualized volatility.
The firm left Bitcoin out of its main portfolio models, citing volatility and unstable correlations, and called the currency debasement bull case “wide of the mark.”
Bitcoin just earned a spot in one of Wall Street’s most closely watched return forecasts, and it landed at the top of the table.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management projected a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released Monday.

Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.It’s the 31st annual edition of the report and the first to include Bitcoin. The forecast tops the firm’s projections for U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%, gold at 5.5% and a classic 60/40 stock-bond portfolio at 7%.

The catch is volatility. The report pegs Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%, compared with about 17% for gold. That’s why Bitcoin’s arithmetic average return, a simple average of yearly gains, comes in at 20.9%, more than double the compound figure investors would actually keep after big price swings.

The firm stopped short of adding Bitcoin to the models it uses to map how assets move together. “For the first time, we put a range on bitcoin returns, though we do not yet include bitcoin in our main covariance matrices,” the report says. Instead, JPMorgan built a separate, smaller matrix comparing Bitcoin with a subset of assets, citing the cryptocurrency’s volatility and unstable correlations as obstacles to widespread portfolio inclusion.

JPMorgan also pushed back on a popular bull case, calling the idea that currency debasement will spark a rush into crypto “wide of the mark.”

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan welcomed the forecast, if not every input. “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you’ll be the best-performing asset of the next decade,” he wrote on X.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade. pic.twitter.com/TuOuH51l3c

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 20, 2026

Hougan argued that JPMorgan’s 55% volatility assumption is too high, which in turn makes its return forecast too conservative. Bitwise, which manages crypto index funds and ETFs, has a stake in that view.

The forecast comes as JPMorgan deepens its own blockchain bets. The bank is bringing JPM Coin, a token representing dollar deposits, to Ethereum, and has joined BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and the DTCC in tokenized stock efforts.

The timing is notable. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $526.7 million on Monday, their best day since Sept. 22, with BlackRock’s IBIT taking in $665.2 million. That trimmed October’s net outflows to about $88 million.

Bitcoin hovered around $82,000, while the 10-year Treasury yield held above 5%, a competing return with far less volatility. JPMorgan’s own global bond forecasts are their highest in two decades.

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