Bitcoin (BTC) may have established a significant long-term price floor, supported by the signals from a widely recognized technical indicator, according to analyst Willy Woo.
Fisher Transform highlights historical bull trend signalLast month, the Fisher Transform indicator, a price trend analysis tool developed in 2002, delivered a rare monthly bullish crossover for Bitcoin. Willy Woo, a prominent onchain analyst, reported that this is only the fourth instance of such a crossover in the cryptocurrency’s history.
Previous bullish crossovers in the indicator coincided with the close of major Bitcoin bear markets, including the late 2022 downturn, when the Fisher Transform reached -3.83. This historical correlation has led analysts to pay close attention to its latest movements.
Woo shared in a social media thread that the most recent crossover, which took place in July at -2.26, may mark the start of a new macro uptrend for BTC/USD—if the historical pattern holds true. He stated that Bitcoin has successfully identified a bear-market bottom following each of the past three major monthly bullish crossovers seen by the indicator.
BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake out. Latest cross is the 4th on record.
While the pattern offers a bullish outlook, Woo cautioned that prices could still experience consolidation or even a further decline before a decisive uptrend forms. He noted similar behavior during previous bull markets, where bearish crossovers were later succeeded by renewed bullish signals. According to Woo, trading behavior from speculative market participants during uptrends can increase market volatility and fake signals, whereas their absence at bear-market bottoms lends confidence to the Fisher Transform’s signals at these stages.
Mini dictionary: Fisher Transform indicator, a technical tool that converts asset prices into a normally distributed dataset to help traders objectively identify trend reversals and turning points.
Bullish divergence on weekly chartIn addition to the monthly signal, Bitcoin’s weekly charts also indicate a potentially bullish divergence. The Fisher Transform on the weekly timeframe reached a swing low of -2.85 at the end of December last year. At that time, Bitcoin’s price hovered near $90,000. Since then, the indicator has recorded higher lows, while the asset itself has touched lower lows, signaling a bullish divergence similar to those seen at the close of Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market.
Woo explained that such bullish divergences on higher time frames can provide early warnings of broader positive price shifts. He also noted that these signals historically accompanied the closing stages of protracted downtrends for BTC.
IndicatorTimeframeSignalBTC Price ReferenceFisher TransformMonthlyBullish crossover-2.26 (July)Fisher TransformWeeklyBullish divergence-2.85 (December)Analyst remains cautious despite signalsDespite these technical indicators strengthening the case for a BTC market bottom, doubts remain among analysts as to whether the recent 21-month lows near $57,000, seen on July 1, mark a final bottom for this cycle.
Woo recently observed that buyer interest at these low levels appeared muted, with only a limited number of large investors accumulating BTC at the time. This lack of widespread participation could affect the reliability of technical reversal signals, especially in the short term.
When price falls to a point where investors find value, buy-pressure fires back up but we are devoid of speculators. Price reverses more cleanly without the choppy fake outs seen in tops. Hence bottoms are easier to define. This is seen in many signals, also seen in the Fisher Transform here.
Although a range of onchain metrics have flashed bear-market reversal signals in recent months, the market appears to be monitoring for confirmation before making broader moves. The reaction of traders to these signals could determine Bitcoin’s near-term direction.
Bitcoin (BTC) price is up by 2.16% today, September 18, to trade at $78,100 at the time of writing. The gains come despite the Bank of Japan increasing interest rates to the highest level in 31 years.
The BoJ rate hike occurred two days after the US Federal Reserve also increased interest rates by 25 basis points as rising oil prices continue to exert inflationary pressures.
Bank of Japan Hikes Rates to 1.25% The Bank of Japan has increased the country’s interest rate from 1% to 1.5%, with this being the highest interest rate in the country since 1995.
The BoJ attributed the hike to rising consumer prices after the country’s main inflation headline reached 1.9% in August 2026, with this being slightly below the BoJ’s target of 2%.
In his speech, the BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda said that the central bank was committed to making sure that inflation does not cross the 2% mark, suggesting that more rate hikes are imminent.
“If risks of underlying inflation overshooting 2% materialize, that could have a negative impact on Japan’s economy,” Ueda said.
Still, the hike did not cause a drop in Bitcoin price as had been earlier anticipated because of fears that the Yen carry trade would unwind. Instead, the JPY/USD dropped to 0.00633, with this being the lowest reading since September 3.
Prior to this hike, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had pledged that the US would work with Japan to support the Yen after its value dropped to a 40-year low.
Bitcoin Price Breaks Out of Descending Trendline Bitcoin price has moved above the resistance of a falling trendline on the four-hour chart amid a surge in buying pressure, as shown by the green volume histogram bars.
BTC still needs to create a higher high above $79,890 to confirm a strong uptrend.
The RSI reading of 63 supports a bullish future Bitcoin outlook. The AO bars that have turned positive also suggest that bulls are tightening their grip.
If the buying pressure continues into the weekend, Bitcoin price might retest the resistance at the September 3 highs of $82,000.
BTC/USDT 4H (Source: TradingView) Still, the recent gains come ahead of high volatility over the weekend due to reduced volume numbers. A slight increase in selling pressure might push Bitcoin price down to retest the support at the midline of the falling channel at $76,290.
Glassnode Data Signals Bitcoin is Back in Bull Territory Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin price has moved above the True Market Mean price of $76,660.
The True Market Mean is the average price at which traders on secondary markets purchased the coins that they have been trading. With Bitcoin price now above $76,660, it suggests that these traders are now sitting on an unrealized profit.
Glassnode also adds that the move suggests that Bitcoin price is “back into a bullish regime.
BTC Price True Market Mean (Source: Glassnode) Bitcoin price now faces the next resistance at $80,000m which is the average price at which treasuries purchased BTC. It also faces a higher resistance at $85,000, which is the price at which Bitcoin ETFs will break even.
Still, the rising profitability of traders on secondary markets increases the risk of them selling BTC to book profits.
CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnChain notes that 4,613 Bitcoin recently moved to Binance, suggesting an intention to sell.
If selling pressure returns, Bitcoin price might move lower to test the psychological support at $75,000.
Bitcoin may be poised for a significant recovery over the coming weeks, with a potential rally toward the psychologically important $100,000 mark before the United States midterm elections. This outlook comes from trader Will Meade, who identifies a bullish continuation pattern in the cryptocurrency’s price charts.
Technical analysis points to a bullish flag patternMeade analyzes Bitcoin’s daily chart and describes the current setup as a “textbook high and tight flag.” According to his interpretation, this pattern suggests that Bitcoin could continue trading sideways for the rest of September before attempting a breakout in October.
The short-term forecast allows for a relatively narrow window for upside movement. The U.S. federal general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, which gives Bitcoin only about six weeks to achieve the predicted move to six figures.
Bitcoin is currently trading in the $76,500 to $77,500 range, based on recent CoinMarketCap data. A rise to $100,000 would represent a substantial gain from these levels, requiring renewed momentum and increased market participation.
Price recovery targets six figures amid prior market turbulenceThe trader’s scenario for Bitcoin comes after a year marked by volatility. Despite pockets of strength, Bitcoin still trades well below its all-time high of $126,198, reached on October 6, 2025. At present, BTC remains about 39% below that peak, indicating the scale of recovery required for a move to $100,000.
Bitcoin’s sideways trend around the mid-to-upper-$70,000s, following the Clarity failure, signals a period of consolidation rather than weakness. This technical phase could precede a renewed price surge if buyers step in.
Meade’s analysis highlights that flag patterns usually form after a sharp price advance, with the “flagpole” reflecting initial gains and the consolidation phase denoting sideways or slightly declining movement within a limited range.
The persistence of Bitcoin in the current range, despite lacking immediate upside catalysts, supports the idea that a strong move could follow if the broader market turns positive.
Seasonal trends add to bullish outlookA key element of the projection centers on seasonality. October, popularly known as “Uptober” among crypto traders, has a reputation for delivering robust gains in Bitcoin over several years. This historical trend adds to market optimism, though participants acknowledge seasonal effects do not guarantee positive outcomes every year.
Market analysts continue to watch for confirmation of a breakout or a shift in sentiment, especially as the next U.S. election approaches. While technical patterns and seasonal trends attract attention, the overall direction will depend on a range of market forces.
In parallel with these dynamics, investors increasingly turn to platforms embracing the Web3 movement. With traditional markets often involving multiple intermediaries, a major transformation has begun as Wall Street shifts to direct asset holding via blockchain. Platforms such as 1stepSwap are enabling investors to hold shares of leading U.S. companies, gold, and silver within their crypto wallets, made possible by the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) and rapid access to the best available market prices, effectively removing middlemen from the process.
As Bitcoin seeks to reclaim six-figure territory, technical setups and evolving market structures remain in close focus for traders and institutional investors alike.
While Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $76,000 and $79,000 in recent days, on-chain analyst Willy Woo analyzed BTC’s monthly chart using the Fisher Transform indicator.
Woo noted that the Fisher Transform indicator on Bitcoin’s monthly chart has formed a golden cross. According to Woo, this development stands out as the fourth bottom signal seen in Bitcoin’s history.
Not a Signal of a Sudden Rise! Woo stated that the Fisher Transform indicator, published in 2002, identifies turning points in Bitcoin price movements, and that the current golden cross in this indicator is the 4th bottom signal in history, while the previous 3 did not lead to false breakouts.
However, Woo noted that this indicator alone is not a sudden trend reversal or a direct buy signal. He stated that the Bitcoin price may move sideways for a while before continuing its current upward trend.
Woo also noted that in the past, the Fisher Transform indicator has been seen to cross bearish and then bullish again during bull markets, but this did not necessarily mean the main trend had ended. Therefore, while the current signal points to a possible bottom, it does not, by itself, definitively mean a trend reversal.
Interest Rate Hikes Alone Are Not a Bearish Signal for Bitcoin! Crypto analyst Murphy stated that the interest rate hikes by the US and Japanese central banks alone do not indicate that Bitcoin will re-enter a bear market. According to Murphy, the pace of monetary tightening, market structure, and investor positioning will be more decisive than the interest rate hike decisions in determining the direction of BTC.
A Comparison of 2022 and 2023! The analyst noted that in 2022, the Fed implemented a total of 425 basis points of interest rate increases, including four consecutive 75 basis point hikes from June to November. Despite this, the analyst pointed out that Bitcoin fell from approximately $41,000 to $15,800.
In contrast, despite the Fed raising interest rates four times by 25 basis points in 2023, Bitcoin rose from approximately $16,500 to $42,000.
The analyst also noted that when the FED increased interest rates five times between December 2015 and December 2017, each time by 25 basis points, Bitcoin surged from approximately $454 to $16,515.
At this point, the analyst, while comparing these periods, pointed out that interest rate hike decisions alone do not necessarily mean a decline in Bitcoin.
Finally, the analyst added that the current structure of the Bitcoin market resembles the conditions at the beginning of 2023 more than those during the first interest rate hike period in 2022. The analyst noted that during that period, inflation fell, the size of each interest rate hike decreased from 75 to 25 basis points, and the market priced in the end of interest rate hikes.
According to the analyst, if interest rate hikes remain limited to around 25 basis points and the market does not expect a new, prolonged tightening cycle, interest rate policy alone may not be enough to trigger a new bear market in Bitcoin. At this point, the pace and scale of future Fed interest rate hikes will be critical for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
*This is not investment advice.
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Global crypto wealth has continued rising, according to the newly published Crypto Wealth Report 2026 from Henley & Partners. The advisory firm identified 135,694 individuals who own digital assets amounting to at least $1 million.
Bitcoin leads the crypto millionaire countOf those wealthy digital asset holders, 92,272 people are classified as bitcoin millionaires. This group’s fortunes are attributed primarily to bitcoin holdings, highlighting the continued dominance of the world’s largest cryptocurrency among high-net-worth individuals.
Outside of the millionaires, Henley & Partners also identified 290 individuals who possess more than $100 million in cryptocurrencies, with 151 of these major holders primarily invested in bitcoin. At the highest level, 23 people have achieved billionaire status through crypto assets, and nine of these built their wealth specifically through bitcoin.
The report places the overall crypto market capitalization at approximately $2.6 trillion as of August 31, with bitcoin making up an estimated $1.6 trillion. Despite this robust total, bitcoin is trading around 38% below its October 2025 all-time high.
Henley & Partners noted that while bitcoin prices remain well below previous peaks, the number of crypto millionaires has reached an unprecedented level and continues to rise globally.
Crypto downturn less severe than previous cyclesAnalysts at Henley & Partners found that the current decline in bitcoin’s price, at just 38% below its peak, has been less severe than previous crypto market downturns. After earlier peaks in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021, bitcoin saw price losses exceeding 75% each time.
Crypto Cycle YearPeak-to-Trough Drop2011Over 75%2013Over 75%2017Over 75%2021Over 75%202538%Meanwhile, global crypto ownership has continued to expand. Approximately 742 million people now hold some form of digital asset, with 371 million of these individuals owning bitcoin.
Crypto adoption and regulatory landscapeThe Crypto Wealth Report also features the Henley Crypto Adoption Index, which assesses and ranks 36 countries on regulatory environment and adoption rates. Singapore remained at the top spot for the fourth consecutive year, driven by progressive regulatory policy and widespread adoption.
The United Arab Emirates rose to second place, gaining recognition for its favorable tax environment and rapidly growing crypto sector. Hong Kong followed in third, while the United States ranked fourth, standing out as the only country to receive a perfect score for public crypto adoption. Switzerland completed the top five. This year’s index added The Bahamas, the Cayman Islands, and Bahrain as new entries.
Stablecoins are increasingly being used as vehicles for cross-border wealth transfer. Dollar-backed stablecoins enable quick movement of funds between countries, often within minutes, according to researchers referenced by Henley & Partners.
On the regulatory front, authorities have been moving toward greater oversight. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, known as MiCA, came fully into effect in December 2024, introducing a harmonized framework for crypto across 30 member states.
Looking forward, tax reporting requirements for crypto wealth are expected to intensify. Seventy-six nations have agreed to the OECD’s new crypto information-sharing framework, which will see the first exchange of tax data among 46 countries take place in September 2027.
Henley & Partners, based in London, is known for its research into global wealth migration, investment citizenship, and high-net-worth financial trends.
Mini dictionary: Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), a law enacted by the European Union that standardizes regulations for crypto asset issuers, service providers, and stablecoins across the EU’s member states.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US recorded net inflows again on September 17th. According to SoSoValue data, a total net inflow of approximately $159.45 million was recorded into these investment instruments. Thus, Bitcoin ETFs saw positive fund flows again after a one-day hiatus.
The largest inflow of the day occurred in BlackRock’s IBIT fund, with a net inflow of $183.66 million. Fidelity’s FBTC fund saw a net outflow of $16.64 million, while VanEck’s HODL fund experienced a net outflow of $7.57 million. Taking into account movements in other ETFs, the overall net inflow across the sector was $159.45 million.
In contrast to the positive inflows from Bitcoin ETFs, net outflows continued in US spot Ethereum ETFs. According to data from Farside Investors and SoSoValue, approximately $39.24 million was withdrawn from Ethereum ETFs on September 17th. This marked the third consecutive trading day of net outflows from the portfolio.
The largest outflow in Ethereum ETFs was seen in BlackRock’s ETHA fund, with a net outflow of $42.86 million. In contrast, Fidelity’s FETH fund saw a net inflow of $1.83 million, and VanEck’s ETHV fund experienced a net inflow of $1.79 million.
The data showed that fund flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum investment products diverged on the same day. While Bitcoin ETFs saw positive inflows, the continued outflows from Ethereum ETFs indicate that investors are managing their positions in investment products based on these two major crypto assets differently.
ETF flows are among the indicators closely watched by the market to track the demand for crypto assets from institutional and professional investors.
*This is not investment advice.
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US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reversed a two-day streak of heavy outflows on Wednesday, registering $159.5 million in net inflows as Bitcoin prices climbed back above $77,000.
ETF Flows Turn Positive After Heavy WithdrawalsThe recent inflow contrasts with the withdrawals seen earlier in the week, when spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $450.4 million leave on September 15 and another $295.9 million on September 16. Over those two sessions, approximately $746.3 million exited the funds before institutional interest appeared to return on September 17.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), one of the most prominent spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US market, led the resurgence by bringing in $183.7 million in new capital. In comparison, Fidelity’s FBTC experienced $16.6 million in withdrawals during the same period, and VanEck’s HODL reported a loss of $7.6 million. Other funds saw little significant movement.
ETFNet Flow (Sept. 17)BlackRock IBIT+$183.7 millionFidelity FBTC-$16.6 millionVanEck HODL-$7.6 millionAfter combining the figures from September 15 to 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs still posted approximately $586.8 million in net withdrawals over the three-day period. Despite the lingering negative balance, the return of inflows points to ongoing institutional interest following a rapid sell-off at the start of the week.
Despite recent turbulence, the re-emergence of positive flows in spot Bitcoin ETFs alongside the Bitcoin price recovery suggests institutional demand remains present.
Bitcoin’s price rallied alongside the ETF inflow, gaining about 1.5% over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency advanced from around $76,400 to approximately $77,500, with a brief move toward $77,600 after spending much of the prior session trading below $77,000.
This rebound followed a decline to the $75,000-$76,000 range, which occurred after the CLARITY Act failed to progress in the Senate. The price movement highlighted renewed investor confidence and risk appetite in the market.
Market Sentiment and Macro FactorsThe broader improvement in sentiment was also visible in traditional markets. US equity indices climbed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 increasing by 1.14% and the Nasdaq gaining 1.69%. The rally came as Treasury yields eased and oil prices pulled back.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, marking its first such move in over three years. Alongside the rate hike, the central bank signaled potential for further tightening in an effort to control inflation.
In contrast to Bitcoin, US spot Ethereum ETFs registered approximately $39.3 million in net outflows during the same September 17 session. The divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum flows indicated that the latest recovery was focused specifically on BTC products rather than a broad return to cryptocurrency funds.
BlackRock, which managed the largest inflow among the ETFs, is a leading global asset management company with investments spanning equities, bonds, alternatives, and now digital assets through its iShares Bitcoin Trust.
Mini dictionary: CLARITY Act, a legislative proposal in the US Senate intended to provide clearer regulations and regulatory frameworks for digital assets and blockchain technology in the United States.
AI startup Mantic secures $25 million in funding to develop superhuman predictive capabilities.
AI developer Mantic announced Friday it has closed a $25 million seed funding round. The firm recently defeated human contestants in a prediction competition. Results from the 2026 Summer Cup, a London-based online prediction platform Metaculus that wrapped up this month, show Mantic’s probability forecasts for political, economic and cultural events outperformed human participants. The strong scores posted by Mantic and other AI entrants also mark the first time AI has dominated the competition. The funding round was led by Radical Ventures, with participation from Microsoft’s venture fund M12, AI startup Thinking Machines Lab, Balderton Capital and others; specific valuation was not disclosed. Mantic CEO Toby Shevlane said the company is focused on advancing humanity’s ability to understand the future. Founded in 2024 by Shevlane and Ben Day, Mantic enhances its forecasting capabilities by optimizing cutting-edge models developed by other AI labs specifically for prediction tasks, testing its systems against historical data, evaluating performance and iterating to improve accuracy. (Reuters)
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18 September 2026 | 13:20 Bitcoin climbed back above $78,000, but the larger moves came from further down the market. In the CoinMarketCap snapshot reviewed for this article, 31 of 45 non-stablecoin and non-gold crypto assets gained more than 5% over 24 hours. Fourteen posted double-digit increases.
Market snapshot at the time of writing
Bitcoin: about $78,100, up roughly 2%
Ethereum: about $2,500, up roughly 3%
Altcoins gaining more than 5%: 31 from top 60
Bitcoin’s return above $78,000 opened the door Bitcoin traded near $78,100 when the CoinMarketCap data was checked at 10:15 UTC, recovering by about 2% over 24 hours while Ethereum rose roughly 3%.
Those figures show a broad recovery, but they understate the risk appetite visible among altcoins. Bitcoin provided a steadier market backdrop while traders moved more aggressively into assets with smaller market capitalizations and stronger individual narratives.
This is why the session can reasonably be described as altcoin-led. Bitcoin remained the market anchor, yet its percentage gain was surpassed by most of the active tokens in the sample.
The rally reached well beyond one or two tokens Uniswap produced the largest gain among the higher-ranked assets, rising about 33%. Arbitrum advanced 27%, while NEAR gained roughly 27%. Worldcoin, MemeCore and Polkadot also recorded increases of 15% or more.
Zcash, Canton, Cardano, Monero, Pump.fun, Internet Computer, Shiba Inu, Ethereum Classic, Pepe, Chainlink, Mantle, Solana, Dogecoin, Avalanche and Litecoin
The spread is important because it reduces the chance that the market picture was created by a single token-specific event. DeFi tokens, layer-1 networks, privacy coins, meme tokens and real-world-asset projects all participated.
Lower oil and bond yields gave risk assets some relief The market had been under pressure following the Federal Reserve’s latest rate increase. That pressure eased as oil prices retreated, US government bond yields fell and equities recovered. Lower oil prices can soften immediate inflation concerns, while declining yields make speculative assets more attractive relative to interest-bearing investments.
Crypto moved with that change in risk appetite. The timing does not prove that macro conditions caused every token gain, but the wider rebound across stocks, bonds and digital assets supports the view that traders became more willing to take risk.
Bitcoin’s recovery above $78,000 then provided a base from which altcoins could move faster. When Bitcoin rises without dominating the entire flow of capital, traders often move toward assets that can produce larger percentage swings.
Fund flows explain Bitcoin better than the altcoin surge US spot Bitcoin funds recorded about $159 million in net inflows during the previous session, per SoSoValue data. Ether funds, by comparison, lost roughly $39 million, while XRP products saw around $5 million in outflows.
That split supports Bitcoin’s recovery but does not explain why Ethereum and dozens of other tokens outperformed it. The data instead point to a two-part move: institutional demand helped steady Bitcoin, while improving market sentiment and token-specific developments drove the larger altcoin gains.
Zcash was one exception. Its US investment product attracted approximately $47 million, adding direct buying support to a token that was already advancing sharply.
Onchain infrastructure drew some of the largest moves The leading gains were concentrated partly among projects connected with decentralized trading and onchain finance. Uniswap, Arbitrum, Ondo and Aave all rose by double digits.
The SEC’s conditional route for certain permissioned venues trading tokenized US stocks may have strengthened interest in that part of the market.
S&P 500 daily index gains. As explained in our coverage of the SEC tokenized-stock order, the measure applies to a limited category of regulated venues. It does not approve decentralized protocols or create automatic demand for their tokens.
Still, it gives investors a concrete reason to revisit infrastructure that could support more financial activity onchain. That provides a plausible connection between the regulatory development and the relative strength of UNI, ARB, ONDO and AAVE, although price data alone cannot confirm how much traders assigned to that narrative.
The rally now needs to show that it can last One strong session does not establish a lasting shift toward altcoins. The next test is whether market breadth survives after the initial rebound. Continued spot buying, steady trading volume and a stable Bitcoin price would give the move more room.
Bitcoin holding above $78,000 would help because traders are generally more willing to retain higher-risk positions when the largest cryptocurrency is stable. A sharp reversal below that level could hit recent altcoin leaders harder, particularly after gains of 20% or more in a single day.
For now, the data support a measured thesis: lower macro pressure helped restore risk appetite, Bitcoin recovered first and project-specific catalysts directed more aggressive buying toward selected altcoins. The breadth of the advance makes the rally meaningful. Its duration will determine whether it becomes more than a fast rebound.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices and market data can change rapidly.
Author
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
Grayscale says the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike will not drive major changes in crypto markets. Nor would a second increase this year.
Head of Research Zach Pandl published the note on Thursday. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% a day earlier.
Why 1997 Matters More Than 2022Pandl drew a line between two very different Fed moves. The central bank began a cyclical shift in March 2022 to contain inflation.
It raised rates by 550 basis points by July 2023. That lifted the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin (BTC) and similar non-interest-bearing assets.
Wednesday’s quarter-point move carries no such weight, he argues. Traders sided with Pandl this week, and Bitcoin climbed instead of selling off.
His reference point is March 1997, when Alan Greenspan’s Fed delivered a one-off hike. The Nasdaq bull market kept running.
“We believe yesterday’s move was a mid-cycle adjustment, not a cyclical change. And we doubt the one or two rate hikes expected for 2026 will lead to much change in capital allocation,” Pandl wrote.
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Fed Funds Target Rate Against the Nasdaq From 1992 to 2002, Marking the March 1997 Mid-Cycle Hike. Source: GrayscalePandl does see uneven effects inside crypto. Stablecoin issuers such as Circle and Tether collect more revenue when cash rates rise. Higher yields on tokenized bonds and money market funds could also pull capital onchain.
“Crypto is diverse, and higher rates affect certain assets differently than others, just like in traditional finance,” he added.
Traders Put 88% Odds on Another Hike by DecemberMeanwhile, traders assign 54.2% odds to another increase at the October 28 meeting, according to CME FedWatch data.
By the December 9 meeting, traders see an 88.2% chance that the range sits higher than today. A further 40.3% put it at 4.25%-4.50%, or 50 basis points above the current level.
Fed Rate Hike Odds in December. Source: CME FedWatchPolicymakers are close behind. Projections show 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase in 2026.
FED LIFTS PROJECTED RATE PATH ACROSS 2026-2028
The Fed now projects one more hike this year, followed by one cut by the end of 2028.
2026: 4.1% vs 3.8% in June
2027: 4.1% vs 3.6%
2028: 3.9% vs 3.4%
Long run: 3.2% vs 3.1%
12 of 18 officials expect another hike this year. pic.twitter.com/BZwY6ydqCp
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) September 16, 2026
Pandl’s framing faces its real test if the Fed moves again in December. That decision would show whether crypto reads this cycle as a blip or a turn.
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The US Treasury sanctioned crypto exchange BitBank on Thursday. The platform was used to move hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin (BTC) to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the department alleges.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) also designated BitBank’s software developer and three associates of Babak Zanjani. The Iranian financier already sits on the US sanctions list.
Treasury Hits Iran’s Crypto Rails as BitBank and Its Developer Land on Sanctions ListBitBank is an Iranian digital asset exchange. Zanjani has advertised its services on its social media accounts since at least 2024, according to the Treasury. Several firms on Zanjani’s sanctions evasion list the exchange as a partner.
According to OFAC, Zanjani routed hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin to the IRGC through BitBank. Those transfers ran between June and July. Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority, designated separately, has passed payments to the regime through the exchange since June.
The sanctions also extended to Pishtaz Simorgh Electronic Trade Company, the developer of BitBank’s digital assets software. The developer is a subsidiary of Dot One Value Creation Group, which OFAC designated earlier.
Three Dot One executives also landed on the list. Hossein Ali Zaker Hossein brokered digital asset transactions that reached the IRGC, Treasury said. Mohammad Mahdi Zaker Hossein runs Pishtaz Simorgh, while Seyed Adel Heidari serves as vice chairman of Dot One’s board.
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent framed the action as a warning to anyone financing Tehran.
“Today’s designations of Iranian digital asset infrastructure make perfectly clear that efforts to finance the Iranian regime using cryptocurrencies are not beyond OFAC’s reach. If you support the Iranian regime, the Department of the Treasury will sanction you,” he said.
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Washington Keeps Squeezing Iran’s Crypto RailsThursday’s designations extend the US’s Iran-focused enforcement. OFAC blacklisted exchanges Shelbit and Aban Tether in August over IRGC-linked transfers. Weeks earlier, it went after a crypto-funded Hormuz toll scheme built around maritime insurance firms.
Earlier this month, the department declared Iran’s digital asset sector sanctionable in full. The campaign reaches well past crypto. The Treasury designated Russia’s VTB Bank on September 14 over alleged correspondent relationships with sanctioned Iranian banks.
The actions flow from Executive Order 13902 and Operation Economic Outcast. Bessent announced the campaign on August 24 and dubbed it “Economic D-Day.”
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Zcash, a privacy-focused cryptocurrency, has recently experienced one of the most remarkable surges in the crypto market. In the last month alone, ZEC has risen by approximately 200%, surpassing the $1,500 level. This surge is attributed to strong funding inflows into Grayscale’s Zcash ETF, interest from large investors, and expectations surrounding the upcoming NU7 upgrade.
The planned reduction of block times from 75 seconds to 25 seconds with NU7, in particular, has raised expectations regarding Zcash’s technical infrastructure.
Finally, the announcement by Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang that the company holds ZEC further accelerated the rise, with crypto trader Ansem comparing ZEC’s jump from approximately $300 to $1,500 to Bitcoin’s rise from $1,000 to $20,000 in 2017.
Bitcoin Analogy for ZEC! Cryptocurrency investor Ansem stated in a post that he has trusted ZEC since its price was around $300, and that the token has now risen to approximately $1,500.
Ansem stated that ZEC’s current market structure resembles Bitcoin’s position before its rise from $1,000 to $20,000 in 2017, arguing that this similarity suggests Zcash could gain strong momentum in 2026 and 2027.
Bitcoin’s Rigidity Benefited ZEC! While ZEC has managed to attract attention with its rise, a comment also came from Eli Ben-Sasson, co-founder and CEO of StarkWare. Ben-Sasson argued that concerns about Bitcoin becoming increasingly rigid are one of the factors supporting interest in Zcash.
Ben-Sasson noted that this view might not be well-received by some Bitcoin supporters, but he also emphasized that he loves and values Bitcoin.
Matt Huang, co-founder of Paradigm, also stated in a post on X that Zcash is “a privacy asset that complements Bitcoin” and that Paradigm has invested in this token.
*This is not investment advice.
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JPMorgan analysts say Bitcoin could see stronger price support than gold if ETF hedging eases, as short interest in BlackRock’s IBIT reaches its highest level of 2026.
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note this week that Bitcoin (BTC) could draw more price support than gold if hedging demand in the ETF market eases, with short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) sitting near its highest level of the year.
IBIT’s put-to-call open interest ratio runs above that of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which the analysts read as heavier hedging around Bitcoin, while short interest in GLD sits below its historical average.
Bitcoin Vs. Gold Bitcoin still faces a more skeptical positioning backdrop than gold despite recent inflows and a build-up of futures positioning, the note said. Moreover, figures reported by FINRA and compiled by MarketBeat put IBIT’s short base at 45.9 million shares as of the August 31 settlement date, the highest reading of 2026 and up 23.8% from 37.1 million two weeks earlier.
The position equals 3.53% of the float and would take 0.6 days of the fund’s average trading volume, about 53 million shares, to cover. At the end of March, the short base stood near 13 million shares, the year’s low.
Bitcoin and gold funds both drew inflows after the Federal Reserve’s late-July meeting, when the debasement trade returned, according to the note. That’s part of the reason behind the rally that carried Bitcoin toward $80,000 and gold near $4,600 an ounce as investors rotated into scarce assets on US fiscal concerns.
However, momentum faded over the past week as inflation-adjusted bond yields rose and the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a procedural vote that fell short of the 60 votes needed, the analysts wrote. Gold ETFs have recovered all of their outflows from earlier this year, the note said, while Bitcoin funds have recaptured about half.
Panigirtzoglou’s team has run the Bitcoin-gold comparison before. In February, with crypto assets under pressure, the analysts put a volatility-adjusted comparison to gold at $266,000 per Bitcoin, in their words, “an unrealistic target for this year” but one that “shows the upside potential over the long term once negative sentiment is reversed.”
You may also like: CLARITY Act Hits Final Stretch as Democrats Push Back Before Senate Vote Strategy Stays on the Sidelines Again but Strive Buys More Bitcoin Revolut Exposed Passports and Bitcoin Records After Fake Government Request: Report Bitcoin traded near $76,500 on Thursday, little changed over the past 24 hours, per CoinGecko data.
ETF Flows Swinging Hard Moreover, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have swung hard this month, posting $236 million in outflows on September 1 before taking in $731 million on September 3, their strongest day since January, with IBIT alone accounting for roughly $454 million.
Net assets across the funds stood at $103.3 billion in early September, about 6% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization, per SoSoValue data.
According to a Bloomberg report, as shares of digital asset treasury companies remain sluggish, with shareholders having lost roughly $50 billion in total, retail and institutional investors are stepping up scrutiny of employee compensation, equity incentives, and related-party transactions at these firms. Artemis data shows that the fully diluted market capitalization of listed treasury companies investing in Bitcoin and Ethereum is currently around $90 billion, down roughly 40% from its peak. Solana-focused treasury firm SkyAI has seen its share price drop nearly 90% since completing its transition financing in August 2025. Forward Industries is urging shareholders to vote against its equity incentive plan, which would reserve 7.2% of the company’s shares for 30 employees, worth approximately $4 million at current prices. Forward also questioned SkyAI over consulting fees and warrant issuances paid to companies controlled by the firm’s chief investment officer’s relatives. SkyAI responded that the arrangements were reviewed by the board of directors and publicly disclosed. Bitcoin-focused treasury firm Metaplanet’s share price has fallen 84% from its June 2025 high. Amid investor criticism over executive incentives and equity dilution, the company scrapped some warrant arrangements and will hire an independent external expert to redesign its compensation plan. Nakamoto, led by David Bailey, has also seen its share price drop 99% from last year’s peak. Its use of stock to acquire two other firms led by Bailey has been questioned by some market participants as a potential conflict of interest.
Bitget Widens Reserve Coverage to 19 AssetsCrypto exchange Bitget has significantly broadened its Proof of Reserves (PoR) framework, . The update brings a much larger share of user holdings into its reserve verification infrastructure.
Merkle Tree Checks and a 122% Reserve Ratio
Bitget CEO Gracy Chen framed the expansion as a matter of user empowerment.
Bitget Official Blog: Bitget Expands Proof of Reserves to 19 Assets | Invezz: Bitget Broadens Proof of Reserves as 15+ Assets Become Verifiable | Chainwire: Bitget Publishes 45th Consecutive Monthly Proof-of-Reserves Report
While everyone is watching the crypto prices, state hackers are meticulously hiding their hacking instructions directly in the blockchain. According to a Chainalysis report published on September 17, the number of times attackers stored malicious instructions or infrastructure information on public blockchains has surged by 420% in twelve months! And as if by chance, state actors like North Korea and Iran are leading the charge.
In Brief On-chain attacks rose 420% in one year, with states responsible for 51% of activity in Q2 2026. A North Korean-linked group (UNC5342) uses Tron, Aptos, and BNB Smart Chain as encrypted relays toward its command infrastructure. Actors suspected of links to Iranian intelligence hide their instructions in Bitcoin transactions. Crypto: A North Korean Group Switches Blockchains Three Times Before Delivering Its Malware Chainalysis managed to link an activity previously unattributed, spread over Tron, Aptos, and BNB Smart Chain, to UNC5342. This is a North Korean group monitored by Google Threat Intelligence. The modus operandi is almost elegant but twisted:
Pointers encoded in Tron and Aptos crypto transactions redirect infected devices to the same BSC transaction; Tron then serves as the main route, Aptos as backup if the first fails; This BSC transaction contains encrypted server addresses and configuration data. These link the compromised machines to an offchain infrastructure dedicated to remote access and data theft. Everything can go wrong on a blockchain, except the instructions. And that’s why they remain accessible as long as the chain runs. It is the same principle as EtherHiding used by North Korean hackers in 2025 to hide crypto-stealing code in smart contracts. This is called a “dead drop” digital. For those who recall, Cold War spies hid microfilms under public benches; these actors hide their server addresses in a Tron transaction costing just $0.001.
Chinese AI in the Loop and Tehran Occupying Satoshi’s Bitcoin Address Chainalysis goes further as malicious writings have jumped 440% since July 2025, when high-capacity open-source Chinese AI models became capable of producing malicious code with few safeguards. Eric Jardine, head of cybercrime research at Chainalysis, talks about a “clear temporal association”. All this while acknowledging the impossibility of proving that the authors of these crypto transactions actually used these AI models to industrialize their production. A grounded way of saying there is no evidence despite suspicions.
On the Iranian side, the story is almost stranger because actors suspected to be linked to the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence write “command-and-control” routing data directly onto the Bitcoin blockchain. And for their public rendezvous point, they chose an address historically linked to Satoshi Nakamoto. Without any real link to the attackers, it just serves as a public marker that all infected devices can check. Then it is enough to publish a new Bitcoin transaction to change infrastructure. Infected machines automatically retrieve new crypto instructions, then the operation moves offchain for remote access, credential theft, or delivering other malicious payloads.
Wall Street Predicts $500,000 for Bitcoin by 2030 There is something quite amusing about the timing. Because at the very moment Chainalysis documents how state intelligence services transform bitcoin and public blockchains into sustainable spying infrastructure, Ric Edelman, founder of an asset management firm weighing $337 billion, predicts live on X that bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2030! Adding that his forecast is actually quite conservative compared to many others.
Two narratives for a single blockchain. On one side, the technical layer serving as PLC for North Korean and Iranian hackers. On the other, the narrative layer selling a seven-figure dream. Both run on the same crypto network, at the same time, and that’s the real issue. The infrastructure that carries the valuation is also exploited by states for spying. A detail Twitter threads on the next BTC ATH systematically forget to mention.
What to Retain from On-chain Attacks Orchestrated by State-Linked Crypto Hackers? Malicious on-chain attacks have grown 420% in one year, with state actors accounting for 51% of activity in Q2 2026, up from less than 10% a year earlier. North Korea (UNC5342) routes its instructions via Tron, Aptos, then BNB Smart Chain to blur tracks before connecting to its offchain infrastructure. Iran is suspected of using bitcoin and an address linked to Satoshi Nakamoto as a public marker to update its attack instructions. The 440% increase in malicious attacks since July 2025 coincides with the rise of open-source Chinese AI models. Originally, the blockchain was designed to be tamper-proof and permanent. Two qualities appreciated by both supporters of the “number go up” and North Korean and Iranian state intelligence services alike. No one really anticipated this second audience but amidst it all, bitcoin now has a target of $500,000.
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Eddy S.
The world is evolving and adaptation is the best weapon to survive in this undulating universe. Originally a crypto community manager, I am interested in anything that is directly or indirectly related to blockchain and its derivatives. To share my experience and promote a field that I am passionate about, nothing is better than writing informative and relaxed articles.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
According to HTX market data, as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike expectations materialize, the crypto market has rebounded collectively. Bitcoin has climbed back above $77,000, while altcoins have seen broad-based gains. Specific 24-hour performance of select tokens is as follows: ONE trades at $0.0015334, up 52.52%; AVA at $0.2699, up 49.70%; COTI at $0.023851, up 36.31%; ARB at $0.21772, up 33.64%; NEAR at $3.404, up 27.87%; UNI at $8.443, up 25.21%; DRIFT at $0.01488, up 24.31%.
BitMEX has settled and delisted XBTUSD, ending one of the most influential trades in crypto history. The Bitcoin contract ran for more than 10 years and became the template for the perpetual futures market that dominates crypto trading today.
BitMEX itself will shut down on September 23. Yet the product it created is everywhere.
The Bitcoin Trade Every Major Exchange CopiedXBTUSD launched on May 13, 2016. It allowed traders to bet on Bitcoin without an expiry date.
Traditional futures expire on fixed dates. XBTUSD did not. That kept traders in one continuous market instead of splitting liquidity between different contracts.
BitMEX also introduced a funding system to keep the contract close to Bitcoin’s spot price. When too many traders crowded onto one side, they paid the other side.
Then came leverage. At launch, traders could control up to $100 of Bitcoin exposure for every $1 they put down. BitMEX later raised the ceiling to 250x for users who activated its Leverage Booster feature in April 2024.
The idea started as scribbles on a napkin in a Hong Kong bar.
Arthur Hayes, Ben Delo and Samuel Reed kept coming back to the same question: why should a market that trades 24/7 be forced onto futures that expire?
XBTUSD was the world's first perpetual swap – no expiry, funding… pic.twitter.com/6yXChrnbb3
— BitMEX (@BitMEX) September 17, 2026 The model spread quickly. Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid now run their own versions.
BitMEX says perpetual contracts account for more than 75% of all crypto trading volume.
Perpetual contracts now account for 75%+ of all crypto trading volume. Source: BitMEXNow Wall Street Wants Perpetuals TooThe format is now moving beyond crypto. Kalshi filed with US regulators in August to offer stock index perpetual futures.
Kraken’s parent company also plans to bring Hyperliquid perpetuals to US traders through a regulated venue.
“12 years. 0 customer funds lost. Every bull and bear cycle crypto has ever had,” BitMEX wrote in its closing post.
That claim refers to customer funds lost through security breaches, rather than losses from trading.
Celsius, for example, sued five BitMEX entities on September 12 over 6,360 Bitcoin lost during forced liquidations in the March 2020 crash.
XBTUSD is gone. The market structure it created is still expanding.
Where the Perpetual Swap Design Is Spreading NowThe design is pushing into ordinary stock markets. Kalshi filed with US regulators in August to list stock index perpetual futures, and Kraken’s parent company plans Hyperliquid perpetuals for Americans through a regulated venue.
“12 years. 0 customer funds lost. Every bull and bear cycle crypto has ever had,” BitMEX wrote that in its closing post.
That record covers hacks, not trading losses. BeInCrypto reported that Celsius sued five BitMEX entities on September 12 over 6,360 Bitcoin lost to forced liquidations in the March 2020 crash.
The product outlived the company that invented it.
The U.S. is continuing to target Iran’s use of bitcoin.
In a Thursday statement, the U.S. Department of the Treasury designated BitBank, an Iranian crypto exchange, as part of Operation Economic Outcast — the Trump Administration’s whole-of-government economic campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran and its enablers.
The U.S. has sanctioned Iran for decades. This year, the Middle Eastern country has stepped up its use of cryptocurrencies — including bitcoin — in order to skirt around economic penalties.
“Today’s designations of Iranian digital asset infrastructure make perfectly clear that efforts to finance the Iranian regime using cryptocurrencies are not beyond OFAC’s reach,” Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said in a statement.
“If you support the Iranian regime, the Department of the Treasury will sanction you.”
The sanctions target designated Iranian financier Babak Zanjani, along with its software developer, Pishtaz Simorgh Electronic Trade Company, and three of Zanjani’s associates: Hossein Ali Zaker Hossein, Mohammad Mahdi Zaker Hossein, and Seyed Adel Heidari.
Since June, the Iranian Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority has used BitBank to move bitcoin to the Iranian regime, according to the Treasury.
Thursday’s sanctions aim to hit the “architecture Zanjani built to launder funds,” it added.
“The Department of the Treasury will continue to not only target the Iranian digital asset ecosystem, but also international entities and actors which help facilitate it,” the statement continued.
Iran started a bitcoin-backed insurance service for its counties shipping companies earlier this year.
The U.S. in July said that it had frozen crypto linked to the Iranian regime, mostly in the form of Tether’s stablecoin.
Stablecoins like Tether’s USDT can be frozen by the company that issues the asset. But bitcoin, being decentralized and having no single issuer, cannot.
The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control in July said Iran had been dodging sanctions by accepting pay in bitcoin from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
OFAC said at the time that Hormuz Safe, developed by Iran’s Ministry of Economy, “accepts payment in Bitcoin and other digital assets” so it can bypass sanctions.
Mathew Di Salvo
Mathew is a reporter who's covered the space since 2019, reporting on everything from Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele's Bitcoin bet to crypto exchange FTX's bankruptcy.
Q4 is just around the corner, and the crypto market is already discussing whether it will be bullish or bearish.
Notably, the bears have quite a compelling case. The market has started reacting to the recent 25 bps hike by the Federal Reserve.
Goldman Sachs has already priced in another rate hike at the October FOMC, and there are reasons to believe that this hawkish scenario could play out.
Why is crypto’s Q4 outlook turning bearish? Following the Fed’s decision, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.734%, its highest level in 26 months.
Further increases could tighten financial conditions, especially with U.S. government debt exceeding $30 trillion.
Source: X The bigger signal, however, is coming from the 10-year Treasury yield.
Based on analysis from the Kobeissi Letter, a move above the 6% threshold next year can not be ruled out. The recent breakout above 5% is a crucial technical signal, suggesting that rising yields could continue to put pressure on liquidity and in turn on risk assets such as crypto.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index crossed 100 for the first time in over four weeks. A stronger dollar could tighten global liquidity and reduce demand for risk assets, including crypto.
Combined with rate-hike expectations and rising yields, the broader macro setup is starting to weigh on crypto’s September ROI.
If this trend continues, could crypto’s October setup suggest that the bear market is far from over?
Speculation builds around crypto as Q4 approaches The market seems to bet heavily on the rally in September to set the tone for early Q4.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is down more than 2% for the month after recording 30%+ gains for both July and August. Traders are hoping to see a green close in the month of September to mark the end of the bear phase and the beginning of the new bull run, which should set a strong tone for the historically bullish month of October for risk assets.
Bitcoin’s key metrics highlight that traders may already be positioning for this move. Following the FOMC announcement, Bitcoin’s Open Interest jumped by approximately 10k, pointing to fresh speculative capital entering the market. As such, despite the macro challenges, traders seem to believe that the odds of a rally in October are still worth betting on.
Source: Glassnode This is where Glassnode’s latest data becomes relevant.
As can be seen in the chart above, Bitcoin’s [BTC] short-term holder cost basis is currently at the crucial level of about $70k. If BTC breaks below this level, these holders could move into unrealized losses, increasing the risk of selling pressure. This makes $70k a key near-term support level. However, with the macro FUD still prevailing and leverage beginning to pick up, a breakdown below this level cannot be ruled out.
If that happens, liquidations could add further downside pressure. In this context, crypto’s broader October setup is tilting more on the bearish side for now.
Final Summary Rising yields and rate-hike fears are putting pressure on crypto. Bitcoin’s $70k support is key, as a break below it could trigger more selling.
Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure after a failed push above $77,000, responding to a batch of stronger-than-expected US labor data and a recent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The initial jobless claims for the week ending September 12 dropped to 196,000, falling short of economists’ estimates of 208,000 and marking the lowest figure since mid-July.
Robust Labor Market Data Influences Policy OutlookThe US Department of Labor reported that jobless claims decreased by 10,000 compared to the previous week, when claims had stood at 206,000. Additionally, the four-week moving average declined to 203,250, reflecting continued resilience in the labor market. These figures provided input for the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, where officials decided to raise the target interest rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. All twelve committee members supported the increase.
Labor data offer an early signal on layoffs, with the latest reading pointing to stable employment. Although weekly numbers can display volatility during holiday periods such as Labor Day, the broad trend suggests a firm jobs market.
Federal Reserve officials assessed that economic activity has maintained momentum, citing robust consumer spending and ongoing investment. Inflation also remains above target, prompting the central bank to reinforce its commitment to controlling price pressures with tighter monetary policy.
Fed Tightening and Bitcoin Price ActionA stronger labor market means fewer indications of underlying weakness in employment. Consequently, inflation and economic growth will remain central factors in shaping future policy decisions. Rising interest rates tend to make government bond yields more attractive, while increasing costs for leveraged trading and business operations in both traditional and digital asset markets.
Federal Reserve projections show the federal funds rate is likely to average 4.1% by the end of 2026, signaling more tightening ahead compared to the current 3.75%–4.00% range. Still, policymakers noted that these forecasts represent expectations rather than preset commitments, leaving room for adjustments as economic conditions evolve.
Bitcoin initially rose around 1.5% to a high of approximately $77,130 as jobless claims data was published but retraced those gains later in the session. The price subsequently fell back near $76,501. Market data also show recent volatility, with Bitcoin reaching about $79,800 on September 11, dropping to $74,944 just days later, and then recovering into the mid-$76,000 range.
Technical Levels and Analyst PerspectivesShort-term technical indicators continued to signal tepid momentum for Bitcoin. The price remained below its 20-day simple moving average, situated near $78,104, with the four-hour relative strength index hovering below the neutral 50 level. Chaikin Money Flow also showed negative readings, reflecting limited buying pressure.
Bitcoin traded between two closely watched liquidity zones, with notable downside support at $74,600 and upper resistance near $77,700. Neither zone has seen a sustained breakout in recent sessions.
In addition to technical readings, the regulatory environment remains a factor. The US Senate did not advance H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, following a narrow 49-50 vote—short of the 60 votes needed to proceed.
Recent analysis from Michael van de Poppe identified $77,500 as the initial resistance level for Bitcoin, highlighting a potential path towards the 20-day moving average at $78,104 if price clears this barrier. He also mapped secondary resistance between $80,500 and $81,200, while analyst Ted indicated that the $82,000 area represents a higher high yet to be tested.
The technical setup and analyst commentary suggest a focus on these resistance and support zones, as market participants watch for further moves following the positive labor data and interest rate shift.
While signals from traditional markets often require navigating intermediaries, a noticeable transition is unfolding with major Wall Street interests moving into Web3. Investors are increasingly using platforms such as 1stepSwap to directly hold tokenized shares of leading US companies, gold, and silver within their crypto wallets. The process leverages the tokenization of Real-World Assets, enabling best market price discovery in seconds and bypassing traditional brokers completely.
Currently, Bitcoin price trades below its first resistance level amid strong employment data and continued tightening from the Federal Reserve.
The United States has imposed new sanctions targeting Iran’s use of Bitcoin and digital assets as part of ongoing measures to disrupt financial pathways supporting the Iranian regime.
BitBank added to US sanctions listOn Thursday, the US Department of the Treasury designated BitBank, an Iranian cryptocurrency exchange, within its broader campaign to counter Iran’s financial operations. Authorities stated that BitBank facilitated Bitcoin transactions for Iranian entities in a bid to bypass longstanding US economic sanctions.
Operation Economic Outcast, led by the US government, focuses on applying economic pressure to hinder the activities of the Islamic Republic of Iran and those who enable its financial networks.
BitBank, based in Iran, reportedly played a significant role in enabling Bitcoin transfers on behalf of institutions linked to the Iranian administration. According to the Treasury, these transactions have strengthened Iran’s ability to evade sanctions by utilizing decentralized digital currencies beyond the reach of conventional banking oversight.
Alongside BitBank, the Treasury targeted several individuals and entities believed to have assisted in these operations. These include Iranian financier Babak Zanjani, software developer Pishtaz Simorgh Electronic Trade Company, and three associates: Hossein Ali Zaker Hossein, Mohammad Mahdi Zaker Hossein, and Seyed Adel Heidari.
Since June, Iran’s Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority has allegedly used BitBank to transfer Bitcoin to government-controlled organizations.
Commenting on the action, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent emphasized the reach of US regulations concerning digital assets. He remarked,
“Today’s designations of Iranian digital asset infrastructure make perfectly clear that efforts to finance the Iranian regime using cryptocurrencies are not beyond OFAC’s reach. If you support the Iranian regime, the Department of the Treasury will sanction you.”
Crypto networks and sanctions evasionThe Treasury described its latest measures as a direct response to the financial systems established by Zanjani to launder funds through digital asset channels. Officials asserted their intention to expand targeting to both domestic and international participants accommodating Iran’s crypto-driven financial infrastructure.
Iran has adopted digital assets, including Bitcoin, to facilitate cross-border transactions in the face of persistent US economic sanctions. Earlier this year, the country launched a Bitcoin-backed insurance program to assist its shipping sector.
In July, US agencies froze cryptocurrencies connected to the Iranian regime, primarily in the form of Tether’s stablecoin USDT. Unlike Bitcoin, which is decentralized and resistant to unilateral freezes, stablecoin issuers retain control over their assets and can block transfers when required.
The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) indicated in July that Iran circumvented restrictions by collecting Bitcoin payments from ships traversing the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. The Hormuz Safe program, initiated under Iran’s Ministry of Economy, provides marine services and accepts payment in cryptocurrencies as an attempt to bypass international financial embargoes.
Mini dictionary: OFAC, or the Office of Foreign Assets Control, is a division of the US Treasury responsible for enforcing economic and trade sanctions based on foreign policy and national security goals.
AssetTypeAbility to FreezeBitcoinDecentralized cryptocurrencyNo central issuer, cannot be frozenTether (USDT)Centralized stablecoinCan be frozen by Tether
JPMorgan analysts have reported that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds continue to lag behind gold in their recovery, as investor positioning remains more cautious toward the leading cryptocurrency.
Contrasting recovery in gold and Bitcoin ETFsAnalysts at JPMorgan, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, observed that gold ETFs have staged a stronger comeback compared to their Bitcoin counterparts. Following the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, both asset classes saw renewed inflows from investors pursuing protection against currency debasement. However, gold ETF demand has already reversed all of its earlier 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have only managed to recover about half their previous withdrawals.
This imbalance highlights divergent investor sentiment. While the institutional footprint in both gold and Bitcoin remains large, exposure to downside risk is still much more prominent among Bitcoin ETF holders.
JPMorgan’s research identifies a significant gap in investor approach: “Short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) remains close to its 2026 high, whereas short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) stands below historical norms.”
The divergence extends into the options market as well. IBIT currently shows a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD, suggesting that Bitcoin investors are prioritizing protective strategies to guard against potential declines.
Potential for Bitcoin to catch upJPMorgan analysts believe that this unusually high level of defensive positioning among Bitcoin investors could eventually work in the cryptocurrency’s favor. If sentiment improves and the need for hedging declines, outflows from downside protection may provide fresh support for Bitcoin ETFs, potentially narrowing the gap with gold.
Panigirtzoglou’s team began 2026 with an optimistic outlook for the digital asset sector. In February, the analysts stated they remained constructive on the crypto market, estimating Bitcoin’s production cost at around $77,000, a decline from approximately $90,000 at the start of the year.
They also reiterated a long-term, volatility-adjusted valuation for Bitcoin at $266,000, based on comparisons to gold’s market positioning.
Despite the positive outlook earlier in the year, JPMorgan cautioned that “Bitcoin has spent five consecutive months below its estimated production cost in 2026, raising concerns about sustained miner profitability.”
Regulatory uncertainty compounds market positioningAs 2026 progressed, JPMorgan’s tone on crypto became more conservative. The bank consistently highlighted increased concerns over the tightening window for the Clarity Act, warning that unresolved regulatory issues could add additional layers of uncertainty for institutional investors in Bitcoin.
While gold’s momentum in ETFs has been buoyed by strong demand and lower short interest, Bitcoin’s trajectory may rely on shifting market sentiment and regulatory clarity for further gains.
Amid these broader macro trends, the digital asset space is experiencing significant technological changes. While traditional markets have depended on brokers and intermediaries, a transformative shift is pushing Wall Street closer to Web3. Many investors are now turning to solutions like 1stepSwap, which allow them to hold shares of major US companies, as well as gold and silver, directly in their crypto wallets. By tokenizing real-world assets and automatically seeking optimal market prices within seconds, these platforms aim to eliminate middlemen in traditional asset trading.
The intersection of evolving regulations, institutional market positioning, and innovative asset tokenization continues to shape the competitive landscape between Bitcoin and gold ETFs in 2026.
Two years ago, Bitcoin credit barely existed. Today, UTXO’s Dan Hillery breaks down how a $16B market could one day rival the network itself.
Two years ago, Bitcoin-backed digital credit barely existed. Today it’s a roughly $16 billion market and Dan Hillery of UXTO thinks the financialization layer on top of Bitcoin could one day rival the network itself. In the debut episode of The Allocators Edge, Hillery breaks down how variable-rate preferred securities like STRC and SATA are priced, why buybacks keep them anchored near $100 par, and what separates digital credit risk from digital equity risk. He also walks through the structured credit fund he’s building, including its senior and junior tranches.
0:00 — Digital Credit Is the Fastest-Growing Part of Bitcoin’s Capital Structure
1:18 — Why STRC’s Variable Rate Design Has No Precedent in Market History
2:59 — What Flat or Falling Bitcoin Prices Mean for Strategy and Strive
4:17 — Short-Duration Bitcoin-Backed Notes and the Next Five Years of Products
5:45 — The Biggest Misconceptions Investors Have About Preferred Securities
6:58 — How Buybacks and Capital Markets Activity Anchor STRC Near $100 Par
8:09 — Why Major Fund Classes Still Can’t Touch Digital Credit Today
9:10 — Inside the UXTO Credit Fund: Senior and Junior Tranche Structure
10:35 — Where the Leverage Comes From and How Volatility Risk Gets Transferred
11:50 — Liquidity, Redemptions, and Digital Credit in a 60/40 Portfolio
This video is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments in digital assets involve significant risk and may result in loss of capital. Both UTXO Management and BTC Inc., producer of BMTV, are owned by Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA)
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
Patrick Green
Patrick Green is an Assistant Producer and Channel Manager on the multimedia team at Bitcoin Magazine, focusing on production, content distribution, and channel strategy across the network.
H100 CEO Eirik Grøttum has expanded his indirect stake in H100 Group through recent purchases by Kode Oslo AS, a company where he is a board member and key shareholder. The disclosure, submitted on September 17, details Kode Oslo’s acquisition of 407,163 H100 shares valued at SEK 621,887, with transactions completed between August 19 and September 15 at an average price of SEK 1.53 each.
Kode Oslo AS, now holding 2,771,787 shares following these acquisitions, is closely linked to Grøttum, who owns 20% of its shares and serves on its board. Another entity fully owned by Grøttum, Olav Grøttum Holding AS, holds an additional 2,627,677 H100 shares. Combined, both companies control 5,399,464 shares, signaling a significant consolidated position linked to H100’s chief executive.
In a public statement, the company highlighted that entities closely associated with Grøttum collectively control this large stake. The transactions follow a strategy of increasing exposure to H100’s equity rather than its direct Bitcoin reserves. The company clarified that these filings are limited to equity positions and not related to new Bitcoin purchases.
Closely associated entities now collectively own 5,399,464 H100 shares after recent acquisitions, a move that reflects confidence in H100’s long-term direction.
H100, a publicly listed Norwegian firm, operates in the health and longevity sector while actively managing significant Bitcoin holdings. The group maintains a current treasury of 3,506.4 BTC, unchanged after these latest share transactions.
Mini dictionary: Kode Oslo AS, a Norwegian investment company, is known for portfolio investments in technology and digital assets.
H100’s Expansion Through AcquisitionsEirik Grøttum took over as CEO on August 11, shortly after H100 completed a prominent acquisition in Norway’s Bitcoin ecosystem. Grøttum, who previously led Moonshot AS, brings experience in software engineering, quantitative trading, asset management, and fintech. He has also worked with Peter C. Warren, H100’s Chief Investment Officer, particularly on Bitcoin-focused investment strategies involving Geir Harald Hansen, founder of Moonshot.
With Grøttum’s appointment, former CEO Johannes Wiik transitioned back to his previous role as chief operating officer. H100 finalized the purchase of NSD AS on August 10, adding both Moonshot AS and PDI AS to its structure. This deal substantially increased H100’s Bitcoin holdings by 2,455.37 BTC, raising its treasury from 1,051.03 BTC at the end of June to the present figure of 3,506.4 BTC.
The acquisition, described by H100 as “the largest M&A in Europe’s public Bitcoin equity market,” was also the first instance of a Bitcoin-for-Bitcoin transaction among public equity firms in the region. The purchased companies carried no financial debt, strengthening H100’s position further.
Instead of cash, H100 issued 790,534,666 new shares to the acquired companies’ shareholders, valuing the transaction at SEK 1.47 billion. After this share issuance, H100’s total outstanding shares increased to 1,128,931,358, with the new shares representing about 70% of the total. Major stakeholder Geir Harald Hansen received just over two-thirds of the new shares.
Company/EntityH100 Shares HeldBTC ContributedKode Oslo AS2,771,787—Olav Grøttum Holding AS2,627,677—NSD AS (acquired)—2,455.37Total BTC holdings after deal3,506.4Financial Impact and Regulatory DevelopmentsThe August acquisition brought H100’s Bitcoin reserves to new highs, but it has also exposed the company’s financial results to cryptocurrency price fluctuations. In the second quarter, H100 reported an operating loss of SEK 88.7 million and a pre-tax loss of SEK 98.2 million, mainly due to non-cash charges of SEK 93.3 million. For the first half of 2026, pre-tax losses reached SEK 253.6 million, and operating cash flow was negative by SEK 12.7 million.
Despite these figures, H100 reported an equity ratio of 86% by the end of June. The firm identifies as both a technology and longevity company, while prominently operating an actively managed Bitcoin investment strategy.
Buybacks could be explored if H100 shares trade below net asset value, according to Grøttum, though this does not signal an imminent repurchase program.
Regulatory changes in Sweden now permit listed firms on Swedish Multilateral Trading Facilities, including the NGM Nordic SME where H100 is traded, to repurchase their shares from December 5.
As of the latest disclosure, Grøttum has further increased his indirect investment and H100’s core Bitcoin holding stands at 3,506.4 BTC. The company continues to monitor its capital strategies amid evolving regulatory permissions and volatile cryptocurrency markets.
ZEC ecosystem NFT project zkSNARKs has completed its auction, the project announced. A total of 16,971 bids were submitted, with 8,000 NFTs allocated, and the final clearing floor price was set at 1.5 ZEC. The auction adopted a uniform-price sealed bidding format, where winners were selected from the top 8,000 highest bids, and unsuccessful bidders will receive full refunds. The project’s official stated that the secondary market will open tomorrow, and refunds will be processed within 24 hours. Notably, @LeonidasNFT, a prominent builder in the Bitcoin Inscriptions space, publicly accused the zkSNARKs team today of being serial "entrepreneurs" in the Ordinals field, claiming many of their projects are scams.
US authorities on Thursday announced sanctions against Iranian crypto exchange BitBank, accusing it of processing Bitcoin paid by ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said that as of June, the Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority used BitBank to transfer payments it received to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Treasury alleged it is part of the architecture used by Iranian financier Babak Zanjani to move hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin to the IRGC.
Treasury has previously alleged Hormuz Safe is part of an IRGC-backed scheme forcing vessels to buy maritime insurance for passage, including coverage against seizures by Iran itself.
“Today’s designations of Iranian digital asset infrastructure make perfectly clear that efforts to finance the Iranian regime using cryptocurrencies are not beyond OFAC’s reach,” said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
The designation is the latest Treasury action aimed at isolating Iran from the international financial system, including through sanctions on digital asset exchanges.
The OFAC designations include BitBank, its developer Pishtaz Simorgh Electronic Trade Company and three associates of Zanjani, with the Treasury calling them “key components of the Iranian regime’s digital assets-based sanctions evasion infrastructure.”
Cointelegraph reached out to BitBank for comment.
Iran’s BitBank is a separate entity from bitbank, inc, a fully licensed crypto exchange founded in 2014 in Japan, which was acquired by SBI Holdings in June. Treasury’s designation lists BitBank as having been established in 2024.
In August, the US sanctioned two digital asset exchanges, Shelbit and Aban Tether, accusing them of assisting the Iranian regime in sanctions evasion. Treasury also sanctioned four crypto exchanges, including the country’s largest, Nobitex, in June.
In July, the US government ordered the freezing of more than $130 million in USDt held in wallets linked to Iran.
Iran has reportedly sought to mitigate the impact of tightening financial restrictions. Earlier this month, the Financial Times reported that Iran’s central bank eased foreign currency controls to encourage businesses to bring overseas earnings home, including through cryptocurrency, amid tightening US sanctions.
Magazine: North Korea drives onchain malware surge, CoinEx shuts: Asia Express
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.
US authorities on Thursday announced sanctions against Iranian crypto exchange BitBank, accusing it of processing Bitcoin paid by ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said that as of June, the Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority used BitBank to transfer payments it received to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Treasury alleged it is part of the architecture used by Iranian financier Babak Zanjani to move hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin to the IRGC.
Treasury has previously alleged Hormuz Safe is part of an IRGC-backed scheme forcing vessels to buy maritime insurance for passage, including coverage against seizures by Iran itself.
“Today’s designations of Iranian digital asset infrastructure make perfectly clear that efforts to finance the Iranian regime using cryptocurrencies are not beyond OFAC’s reach,” said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
The designation is the latest Treasury action aimed at isolating Iran from the international financial system, including through sanctions on digital asset exchanges.
The OFAC designations include BitBank, its developer Pishtaz Simorgh Electronic Trade Company and three associates of Zanjani, with the Treasury calling them “key components of the Iranian regime’s digital assets-based sanctions evasion infrastructure.”
Cointelegraph reached out to BitBank for comment.
Iran’s BitBank is a separate entity from bitbank, inc, a fully licensed crypto exchange founded in 2014 in Japan, which was acquired by SBI Holdings in June. Treasury’s designation lists BitBank as having been established in 2024.
In August, the US sanctioned two digital asset exchanges, Shelbit and Aban Tether, accusing them of assisting the Iranian regime in sanctions evasion. Treasury also sanctioned four crypto exchanges, including the country’s largest, Nobitex, in June.
In July, the US government ordered the freezing of more than $130 million in USDt held in wallets linked to Iran.
Iran has reportedly sought to mitigate the impact of tightening financial restrictions. Earlier this month, the Financial Times reported that Iran’s central bank eased foreign currency controls to encourage businesses to bring overseas earnings home, including through cryptocurrency, amid tightening US sanctions.
Magazine: North Korea drives onchain malware surge, CoinEx shuts: Asia Express
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.
The Bitcoin-backed digital credit market has surged to approximately $16 billion within just two years, marking significant growth in this emerging sector. Dan Hillery, representing UXTO, stated that the financialization layer built on top of Bitcoin could eventually reach a scale comparable to Bitcoin’s core network.
Understanding Bitcoin-backed digital creditHillery, speaking on The Allocators Edge, explained how variable-rate preferred securities such as STRC and SATA function within the digital credit ecosystem. He detailed that these instruments are primarily anchored near $100 par value through active buybacks and capital market interventions, which support their stability in volatile markets.
Unlike traditional equity-based products, preferred securities like STRC offer a distinct digital credit risk profile. Hillery emphasized that understanding the mechanics of these products is crucial for investors looking to diversify within the blockchain space, as their variable-rate design bears little resemblance to any previous market instruments.
Flat or declining Bitcoin prices can influence strategy execution for these securities, as product design and redemption terms must adapt to the underlying asset’s behavior. Hillery also outlined upcoming products, including short-duration Bitcoin-backed notes, suggesting further market expansion over the next five years.
Market misconceptions and growth challengesHillery identified common misconceptions among investors regarding preferred securities, particularly surrounding their risk profiles and returns. He noted that the buyback mechanisms and continuous capital activity play a key role in ensuring price stability for products like STRC.
Despite rapid growth, Hillery remarked that many major fund classes have yet to adopt digital credit products, citing regulatory and risk-based limitations as ongoing barriers. The structural features embedded in these financial instruments remain largely untapped by traditional institutions.
The UXTO Credit Fund, currently under development, will utilize a senior and junior tranche structure designed to manage risk and enhance liquidity for investors. These tranches allow for differentiation based on risk tolerance and reward expectations within the digital credit market.
Technical innovation and shifting market infrastructureHillery provided insights into the sources of leverage within digital credit funds and methods used to transfer volatility risk between participants. He also described how liquidity and redemption processes function, enabling the integration of digital credit products into balanced portfolios, such as those following a 60/40 allocation model.
As digital credit products gain traction, the infrastructure supporting them continues to evolve. Investors require tools for efficient execution and market access, prompting a transformation in traditional asset holding structures.
While established financial markets have long relied on intermediaries, a major shift is now underway as Wall Street transitions to Web3 frameworks. Investors are increasingly using platforms like 1stepSwap, where shares of leading U.S. companies, along with gold and silver, can be directly held in crypto wallets. Through tokenization of Real-World Assets and automated price matching, these platforms effectively eliminate traditional middlemen, accelerating access and cost-efficiency.
Hillery explained that variable-rate preferred securities such as STRC and SATA are anchored near $100 par due to ongoing buybacks and capital market activity. Buyback mechanisms provide a stabilizing component, allowing these instruments to maintain their target value despite market fluctuations.
Ownership and management structures in this space are also taking shape, with both UTXO Management and BTC Inc., the producer of BMTV, operating under Nakamoto Inc., which is listed on NASDAQ as NAKA.
LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 05: A general view of Deutsche Bank on September 5, 2011 in London, England. Shares at Deutsche Bank fell by nearly 9 per cent today after news emerged that it was one of several banks currently being examined by the Serious Fraud Office, to determine whether financial institutions fraudulently misrepresented asset backed securities deals to clients in the UK. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
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Gerald Podobnik, co-head of Deutsche Bank’s corporate bank, said in a statement on Wednesday that “digital assets are not a replacement for the traditional financial system but an important complement to it,” as Germany’s largest bank confirmed it will begin holding bitcoin and ether for institutional clients in Europe before the end of the year. Bitcoin traded at $75,547 on Wednesday afternoon, little changed over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.
The announcement landed a day after the U.S. Senate voted 49-50 against advancing the Clarity Act, the market-structure bill the crypto industry had spent the year lobbying for. Deutsche Bank’s route runs through Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regime instead. The bank expects to receive its custody licence in October, a spokesperson told Cointelegraph.
“We see them as new rails that can coexist with existing market infrastructures while benefiting from the trust, security and safeguards that regulated financial institutions provide,” Podobnik said. “Our aim is to offer clients a secure and regulated gateway to this evolving market.”
What the bank will actually holdAt launch the service covers “a selected range of digital assets, including Bitcoin and Ether, as well as selected stable coins or e-money tokens, including USDC and EURC, EURAU,” the bank said. Circle issues the first two. EURAU is the euro stablecoin of AllUnity, a joint venture between Galaxy, Flow Traders and DWS, the asset manager Deutsche Bank majority-owns, which received a BaFin e-money licence in July 2025. “Tokenized financial instruments are also included in the roadmap,” the release added.
The first clients will be corporates, asset managers, hedge funds, custodians, brokers and sovereign institutions served by the corporate and investment banks, the bank has said. Deutsche Bank will manage the wallets and the private keys itself, and the keys will sit behind hardware-based protection, multi-person approvals and separate warm and cold storage.
For Ido Sofer, founder and chief executive of the key-management firm Sodot, a bank keeping the keys in-house is the tell. “When you hear a bank is launching their own custody solution and they’re hiring blockchain engineers and so on, that means that they’re saying, okay, I want to go all in. I want to have those in-house capabilities and I want this as a business line,” Sofer said on the On The Margin podcast in April. “It really shifted from this is an experiment to this is a growth vector in the business line.”
Three years in the makingDeutsche Bank applied to Germany’s BaFin for a digital-asset custody licence in June 2023 and named the Swiss firm Taurus as its technology partner that September. In July 2025 Bloomberg reported that the bank was aiming for a 2026 launch and had brought in Bitpanda’s technology unit alongside Taurus. Wednesday’s release names neither company. It says only that the service “will use selected external technology and infrastructure providers for defined technical components.”
The bank is late to its neighbourhood. Landesbank Baden-Württemberg announced institutional custody with Bitpanda in 2024, DZ Bank’s meinKrypto platform received its MiCA authorisation in December 2025, and Standard Chartered and BBVA already run regulated custody in Europe, as CoinDesk noted. What Deutsche Bank brings is scale: it is one of the banks the Financial Stability Board classes as globally systemically important, and its clients are the ones who have been asking who should hold the keys since the summer’s hacks.
No deposit-guarantee scheme coverThe release ends with a warning. “Digital assets involve material risks, including price volatility, fraud, cyber incidents and failures of market participants,” it says. “Crypto-assets are not covered by a deposit-guarantee scheme comparable to the protection applicable to eligible bank deposits.”
That is the trade the bank’s clients are being offered: a regulated custodian’s controls, without a regulated deposit’s insurance. Michael Tanguma, co-founder and chief executive of the bitcoin custody firm Onramp, argues the market has already made its choice.
“Nobody would tell an individual to take all their gold out of the bank and park it underneath their mattress,” Tanguma said in an interview in August. “It’s a misnomer and fallacy to say that self custody is the only way.”
The business logic is older than the technology. A custodian that holds the keys also holds the client relationship, and can sell into it, Sofer said: “It’s gonna be hard for you to leave.” That is the same logic that had Wall Street rushing at bitcoin in April, and that has BitGo moving DeFi yield inside its own vaults.
Podobnik left the door open on scope. “The service will be further developed in line with client demand, regulatory requirements and the bank’s risk appetite,” he said. The release adds that timing, geography and the asset list “may change as a result of regulatory requirements, internal approvals, market developments or client demand.”
Sofer’s read is that none of that hedging matters much once a bank of this size has committed. “When a bank does something, this is for like five, 10 years, right?” he said. “They don’t say, well, let’s do this for a couple of quarters and re-evaluate.”
Bitcoin traded sideways on Thursday as crypto markets digest the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis points rate hike.
Notable Statistics:
Coinglass data shows 150,510 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for $1.83 billion. SoSoValue data shows net inflows of $517.2 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $189.2 million. In the past 24 hours, top gainers include XRP, Hyperliquid and Pepe. Notable Developments:
Peter Schiff: Bitcoin Failed ‘Digital Gold’ Test, Higher Yields Could Hurt BTCXRP Up 3% as Ripple Adds XRP Payments to Stripe, Tempo’s AI StandardCrypto Bull Market Doesn’t Depend on CLARITY Act, Bitwise Exec SaysBitcoin Holds $76,000 After Fed Hike: Why Is BTC Strong While Equities Fall?Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs Lose $1.11 Billion Over 2 Days: What’s Going On?Bitcoin’s Fair Value Is Around $105,000, Rise Is ‘Programmed,’ Mark Yusko SaysPURR Jumps 8% as SEC Approves ‘Innovation Exemption’ for Tokenized Stock TradingTrader Notes:
Trader KillaXBT predicts Bitcoin is unlikely to hit $100,000 in 2026, with re-accumulation and range-bound trading the more probable path. He expects $100,000 to break next year.
Trader Jelle noted Bitcoin appears to be breaking the traditional four-year cycle, with a shorter and shallower bear market unless BTC makes a new low around October.
He added, “this will have been the shortest bear market by far, while also being much shallower than usual.” What that means for the next bull run remains unclear.
Crypto investor Rekt Capital sees Bitcoin’s bear market running out of time, based on the historical roughly 365-day duration.
Image: Shutterstock
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Ducat, a Bitcoin Layer 1-native credit protocol, has connected its infrastructure to the TRON network, giving its users direct access to the largest USDT settlement layer in crypto. The integration introduces wUNIT, a TRC-20 wrapped version of Ducat’s Bitcoin-backed dollar token, enabling cross-chain transfers and swaps against Tether’s dominant stablecoin.
How the plumbing works Ducat’s core product lets Bitcoin holders deposit BTC into non-custodial vaults and borrow UNIT, a dollar-pegged token, without handing their keys to anyone.
The protocol requires a 160% minimum collateralization ratio. If a user wants to borrow $100 worth of UNIT, they need at least $160 in Bitcoin locked up. Fall below the 135% liquidation threshold and the protocol starts unwinding the position to protect the system.
Borrowing carries a 1% origination fee with no ongoing interest. That’s a notable departure from most lending protocols, which charge variable rates that can spike during volatile markets.
With the TRON integration, the newly created wUNIT token can be swapped directly against USDT inside a dedicated liquidity pool on the TRON network. Bitcoin collateral stays on the Bitcoin network the entire time. Only the dollar-denominated token crosses chains, which keeps the security model intact while expanding where that liquidity can actually be used.
Liquidity providers who supply USDT and wUNIT to the pool earn swap fees, creating a straightforward incentive structure.
Why TRON specifically TRON has quietly become the backbone of stablecoin transfers globally. Its low fees and fast confirmation times made it the default rail for peer-to-peer dollar transfers, particularly in emerging markets across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
That $94 billion USDT figure represents actual circulating supply on TRON, making TRC-20 USDT the single largest stablecoin deployment on any network. For Ducat, integrating with TRON means its Bitcoin-backed dollar token can flow through channels where real commercial activity already happens.
The broader Bitcoin DeFi context Ducat launched on March 18, 2026, entering a Bitcoin DeFi landscape that has matured significantly over the past two years.
The non-custodial vault structure addresses one of the oldest tensions in crypto lending. Centralized lenders like Celsius and BlockFi collapsed spectacularly because they took custody of user funds and made risky bets with them. Ducat’s architecture sidesteps that risk entirely by keeping Bitcoin in vaults that borrowers control.
The 160% collateralization requirement provides a meaningful buffer against Bitcoin’s price volatility. For context, MakerDAO historically required 150% collateralization for ETH vaults on Ethereum. Ducat’s slightly higher threshold, combined with the 135% liquidation trigger, builds in a 25-percentage-point cushion between the minimum and the danger zone.
The zero-interest model funded by a flat 1% origination fee makes costs predictable for borrowers. You know exactly what you’re paying upfront, with no surprises if your loan sits open for months.
For TRON, the integration adds a new flavor of collateralized stablecoin to its ecosystem. While USDT dominates on the network, the introduction of a Bitcoin-backed dollar token gives TRON users exposure to a fundamentally different type of stablecoin, one backed by the most liquid crypto asset rather than by fiat reserves held in bank accounts.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Bank of Japan raises interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points, lifting the target rate from 1.00% to 1.25% — the highest level in 31 years. The decision, approved by a 7-2 vote, aligns with market expectations. The BOJ stated it will continue to raise rates based on economic and price developments as well as financial conditions.
3 minutes ago
Claude Code is a pixel-perfect copy of Cursor, not even bothering to rename its Projects feature.
Beating AI News Flash: Anthropic has revamped Claude Projects, resulting in a feature nearly identical to the same-named function Cursor launched a week ago. Cursor uses a central agent as project manager, which does not write code itself—instead, it breaks down tasks, sets plans, and assigns work to multiple agents for parallel completion. Tasks run persistently in the cloud, even when users close their laptops; all agents share project context and can automatically activate local agents when needed. Claude’s new Projects follow almost the exact same design: a central agent breaks down tasks and verifies results, with multiple parallel Claude Code sessions running below. Each session independently modifies code, runs tests, and submits pull requests (PRs), shares project memory, and continues working even when the laptop is closed. Cursor launched its Projects on September 10, while Claude Projects were released on September 17. Even now, Cursor’s feature is more robust, indicating Claude only managed a rough copy in just seven days.
3 minutes ago
A whale went long on $119 million worth of HYPE, currently holding an unrealized profit of $65.74 million.
According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a whale holds a long HYPE position that has been open for 343 days. The position size is 1.38 million HYPE, valued at approximately $119.12 million, with an average entry price of $38.68. The position currently has an unrealized profit of $65.74 million, and has paid $5.67 million in funding fees over the period.
3 minutes ago
Jiang Zhuoer: BNCB is equivalent to gaining BNB exposure at a discount, which may drive BNC to form a "crypto-stock flywheel"
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.TOP, posted that holdings of BNCB have risen again, reaching $17.28 million. In the comparative data he cited, this holding size exceeds related positions of Coinbase and MicroStrategy (MSTR), and is close to Tesla’s related holdings. He noted BNCB provides BNB exposure at approximately a 58% discount. BNC is the BNB Treasury controlled by Binance, while BNCB is Binance’s bStock token corresponding to BNC. He believes Binance launched BNCB to channel crypto market funds to the U.S.-listed BNC, forming a “crypto-stock flywheel” similar to MicroStrategy’s model. He pointed out that BNB’s current total market cap is around $94 billion, while BNC’s market cap stands at only about $220 million; if 1% of BNB’s buyer funds shift to BNC, it could erase the current discount. So far, crypto market funds have bought $17.28 million worth of BNCB and $5.29 million worth of BNC4, totaling $22.57 million, roughly 10% of BNC’s total market cap. BNC’s advantage over small-cap tokens is that its downside potential may be limited by asset discounts, which was his main rationale for earlier BNC purchases. He also stated he bought BNC at around $4.5 per unit.
3 minutes ago
Artificial Inu (AI) whale sells off holdings at a high price, pushing the token price down over 12% in a short time, with its cumulative unrealized profits hitting $7.56 million.
On the FOMO platform, a whale holding Artificial Inu (AI) sold 6.096 million tokens this morning, worth $2.03 million. The whale still holds 17.5 million AI tokens (valued at $5.84 million), with total realized and unrealized profits of $7.56 million from its AI holdings. According to GMGN market data, Artificial Inu (AI) dropped over 12% between 5 AM and 6 AM this morning, likely due to the whale’s sell-off.
3 minutes ago
Bitcoin Surpasses $77,000
According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has surpassed $77,000, posting a 0.96% gain in the past 24 hours.
Zcash (ZEC) led Thursday’s cryptocurrency rebound after US policymakers delivered their first rate increase since 2023, a move that markets largely treated as already expected rather than a shock. The privacy token advanced roughly 23 percent over 24 hours and traded near $1,369. Bitcoin rose less than 1 percent to about $76,258. Solana gained nearly 3 percent and sat just under $100.
Binance Coin and Hyperliquid’s HYPE each added more than 2 percent, while ether, XRP and dogecoin climbed between 1 percent and 2 percent.
A few thoughts on ZCash (disclosure: Paradigm is an investor in ZEC and ZODL):
– All blockchain ecosystems struggle with long-term funding, especially of public goods, and an inflation-funded developer fund is an elegant mechanism to do so. How this fund is allocated is a fair…
— Matt Huang (@matthuang) September 16, 2026
Stock-index futures also recovered as Asian trading got under way.On September 16 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 12–0 to lift the federal funds target by a quarter point, to a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent.
The official statement said inflation remains elevated and that the action would support a more timely return to the 2 percent goal.
Accompanying projections pointed to a median policy rate of about 4.1 percent at the end of both 2026 and 2027, consistent with limited additional tightening this year.
Because the hike had been widely discounted, borrowing-cost fears did not dominate risk assets overnight.
Zcash’s larger move also tracked a public comment from Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang.
In a post on X, he disclosed that Paradigm is an investor in ZEC and ZODL, described Zcash as a private complement to Bitcoin, and argued that an inflation-funded developer fund remains important given advancing cyber and quantum risks.
He added that governance based only on coin voting could introduce unpredictability as the asset is used more like money.
Zcash is built so senders, recipients and amounts can stay hidden from the public ledger.
That design, together with recent holder support for Network Upgrade 7—shorter 25-second blocks and an unchanged Bitcoin-style halving schedule—gave traders a project-specific reason to bid the token even while the policy backdrop tightened slightly.
Higher official rates normally make speculative capital more expensive.
In this case, the combination of a priced-in decision, a restrained forecast path, and a visible institutional endorsement of Zcash’s privacy role helped both Bitcoin and smaller tokens recover rather than sell off.
The outperformance now lasting longer will most likely depend on follow-through in inflation data, further Fed guidance, and whether shielded usage and network upgrades keep attracting capital. The recent episode shows that token-specific news can still outweigh a modest shift in US rates.
Notably, Ethereum (ETH) price recovered more modestly than the privacy-coin leaders, holding above $2,400 and trading near $2,430–$2,440 with gains of roughly 1–2 percent after an earlier dip around the policy announcement.
Spot ether funds recorded one of September’s larger daily withdrawals, yet on-chain flows showed large holders buying and staking into the weakness, a split that helped ETH reclaim short-term support after Tuesday’s selloff tied to the Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act.
The token remained inside its late-August range rather than breaking out, suggesting traders treated the Fed move as confirmation of a known path instead of a reason to abandon the second-largest network.
Among other large-cap names, XRP stabilized near $1.30 after a sharper drop earlier in the week, posting only a fractional rebound as payment-token demand stayed secondary to Bitcoin and Zcash.
Tron hovered around $0.335 with a similarly contained advance, compressed between nearby moving averages rather than showing a decisive trend.
Cardano participated in the same cautious bid that lifted most layer-1 tokens, without matching Solana’s approach toward $100 or Zcash’s double-digit spike. Together the tape pointed to a market that had already discounted the first rate increase since 2023 and was rotating toward idiosyncratic stories rather than selling the entire complex.
Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl told clients Thursday that Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) $58,000 June low was the cycle bottom and the firm is now giving a green light to allocate.
What Pandl Said About the BottomPandl told The Block at Avalanche Summit in New York that Grayscale called the bottom at $58,000 at the end of June and he is sticking with that view.
Bitcoin trades above $76,000 Thursday, up 1% over 24 hours, but still roughly 39% below its record high of around $126,000.
Grayscale uses a three-part framework before advising clients to allocate, covering the long-term structural trend, the stage of the market cycle, and the macroeconomic backdrop.
Pandl said all three conditions are now clear. “In my view, you can check all of those boxes today,” he said. “So we are certainly giving the green light to our clients.”
The call echoes Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong, who said on September 10 that Bitcoin has bottomed for the current cycle and expects a two-year upward trend heading into the next halving.
Why Pandl Is Also Watching ZcashPandl also told The Block that Grayscale has offered a Zcash (CRYPTO: ZEC) investment product for roughly nine years, and his thesis rests on a gap that Bitcoin leaves open: privacy.
“Bitcoin needs a privacy layer, digital currencies need a privacy layer, Bitcoin is missing that,” Pandl said.
His view is that Zcash occupies an underexplored design space rather than competing with Bitcoin directly.
Different blockchains make different trade-offs, and Zcash prioritizes privacy at the expense of some of the transparency Bitcoin offers.
With AI growing more powerful and personal data more exposed, Pandl argued that Zcash gives investors a direct way to express a view on financial and personal privacy as a theme.
Why the Timing MattersPandl’s green light comes in the immediate aftermath of two market hits in one week: the Clarity Act’s Senate defeat and the Fed’s first rate hike in three years.
Despite both, he is not pulling back his bottom call or his allocation recommendation.
That conviction, coming from one of the largest institutional crypto asset managers, puts a floor under the narrative at a moment when sentiment across the broader market is fragile.
Crypto and equity markets both firmed in the hours after the Federal Reserve's Wednesday rate decision and across Thursday, with traders reading the central bank's quarter-point hike and accompanying guidance as roughly in line with expectations rather than a fresh source of tightening risk. Bitcoin traded at $76,642, up modestly over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko, while total crypto market capitalization rose 1.6% to $2.63 trillion.
The rally was broad rather than concentrated in Bitcoin. Of the 100 constituents in the CoinDesk 100 index, 94 advanced over 24 hours, and the small-cap-heavy CoinDesk 80 index gained 4.7% against just 1.2% for the Bitcoin-heavy CoinDesk 5.
Zcash was the standout, around 30% to a record past $1,485 after Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang disclosed the investment firm holds ZEC, calling it "a private complement to Bitcoin," a disclosure that coincided with a governance vote to shorten the network's block times while preserving its Bitcoin-style halving schedule.
US equity futures also rose on the decision, with Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 1.04% and S&P 500 futures adding 0.81%, alongside a 0.17% dip in the dollar index and gains in gold and silver, as markets read the Fed's updated projections, a median of one additional quarter-point hike this year, as consistent with a measured pace rather than an accelerating one.
Underneath the relief rally, positioning told a more cautious story. US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed another $296 million on Wednesday, extending a seven-session outflow streak that has topped $1 billion since September 8, according to CoinDesk. Thursday ETF flow data was not available as of publication time. Bitcoin remains 6.9% below its September 4 monthly high of $82,284, and crypto-linked equities sold off the following day even as tokens held their gains: Coinbase fell 4.4% to $164.51 and Robinhood dropped 5.5% to $104.42 on Thursday, a divergence suggesting the equity market is pricing in something the token rally is not.
Some analysts are drawing a more pointed historical comparison. Bitcoin currently sits roughly 40% below its record high of $126,000 set last October, matching the discount from November 2021's peak at the point the Fed began tightening in March 2022, a cycle that produced an 18% rally over 12 days before a 50% slide that stretched into the FTX collapse. Futures markets are pricing in a further 75 basis points of Fed tightening over the next six months, with Goldman Sachs forecasting another hike as soon as October, meaning this week's rally may face its own test well before year-end.
JPMorgan analysts believe that if the high hedge positions in Bitcoin ETFs are resolved, Bitcoin could find stronger support than gold in the coming period.
A report published by JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that inflows into Bitcoin and gold ETFs accelerated following the Fed meeting at the end of July, and that hedging against currency depreciation came to the forefront again. However, according to the analysts, the rise in real bond yields in the last week and the US Senate’s failure to advance the Clarity Act have weakened this trend.
The report noted that demand for gold ETFs has recovered more strongly than for Bitcoin ETFs. Gold ETFs have recouped all of their losses from earlier in the year, while Bitcoin ETFs have only managed to recover about half of their previous outflows. The recent slowdown in inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could leave more room for recovery if positive news flow returns.
According to JPMorgan, the fact that positioning in both Bitcoin and gold futures remains at high levels indicates that institutional investors continue to support both assets. However, the real difference between the two assets emerges in short positions in ETFs.
Analysts noted that the ratio of short positions in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) remains near its highest levels seen this year. In contrast, short positions in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) were recorded as being below the historical average.
JPMorgan stated that this difference indicates a more cautious investor positioning in Bitcoin compared to gold, which could stem from higher hedging demand in Bitcoin. The fact that the put/call open position ratio in IBIT is also higher than in GLD suggests, according to analysts, a greater concentration of hedging positions around Bitcoin.
Bank analysts added that there are other factors that could influence the price movements of Bitcoin and gold, noting that short positions in IBIT, which are currently higher than in GLD, represent significant potential. According to JPMorgan, if investors reduce their demand for hedging, the unwinding of these positions could provide more support to Bitcoin than to gold.
*This is not investment advice.
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Zest Protocol’s new levered Bitcoin staking vault is now live on Stacks. The zvstBTC vault, the protocol’s first automated Stacks Vault product, marks a notable step in the slow but steady effort to make Bitcoin actually productive in DeFi.
The concept is straightforward in theory, even if the plumbing underneath is anything but. Users deposit Bitcoin assets like stBTC or BTC into the vault and receive zvstBTC shares in return. The vault then runs a leveraged loop: posting stBTC as collateral in Zest’s lending market, borrowing sBTC against it, and recycling those borrowed assets back into staking positions to amplify the base yield.
How the yield math works The unlevered staking rate for stBTC, the liquid staking token issued by Stacking DAO, sits at roughly 2.6% APY. Zest’s vault aims to stretch that to 6-8% APY through its looping strategy.
The gains don’t arrive as separate token distributions. Instead, they accrue directly into the vault’s net asset value, meaning the price of each zvstBTC share gradually increases over time.
Initial deposits are capped at 10 BTC. That’s a deliberate constraint, not a limitation born of low demand. Capping early capacity lets the protocol stress-test the strategy with manageable risk before opening the floodgates.
Zest’s track record and the trust question Zest Protocol’s Stacks lending market has maintained a peak total value locked of over $100 million. More importantly, it has reported zero bad debt since launching in March 2024. The vault’s architecture relies on two key assets within the Stacks ecosystem: stBTC, issued by Stacking DAO, provides the base staking yield and serves as the primary collateral, while sBTC functions as the borrowable asset that enables the leverage loop.
What this means for Bitcoin DeFi A 6-8% target APY on Bitcoin is competitive with many Ethereum-based staking products. The Stacks network settles directly to Bitcoin’s base layer, which matters for the subset of investors who care deeply about where their trust assumptions actually live.
Zest has also introduced STX token incentives to encourage broader participation in the vault ecosystem.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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The US stock market’s CPU sector continues to rally, with Intel’s gains expanding to 10% and AMD rising more than 7%.
According to market data from BIT (bit.com), the US CPU sector continues to rally, with Intel’s gains expanding to 10%, AMD rising over 7%, Arm up more than 8%, Qualcomm advancing over 3%, and Nvidia increasing by more than 2%.
6 hours ago
2026 U.S. Federal Reserve terminal rate outlook: The probability of another 50 basis point rate hike stands at 37.2%, while the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged at current levels is 13.3%.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch data, after the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate hike in three years, market focus has shifted to whether this move is a policy "recalibration" or the start of a new consecutive rate hike cycle. The two remaining FOMC meetings in 2026 are scheduled for October and December respectively. Currently, the probability of holding interest rates steady at the October meeting is 49.1%, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike is 5.9%. For the period through December, the probability of rates remaining unchanged from current levels is 13.3%, a cumulative 25 basis point hike has a 49.6% probability, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike carries a 37.2% chance.
6 hours ago
Lobster token’s market cap briefly surpassed $246 million, hitting an all-time high, with a 13.5% rise in the past 24 hours.
According to GMGN market data, the Chinese Meme coin "Lobster" briefly hit a market capitalization of over $246 million, setting a new all-time high. The token has a 13.5% 24-hour price increase, with its current market cap at $237 million and 24-hour trading volume at $5.8 million. BlockBeats reminds users that prices of related tokens are highly volatile, so investors should exercise caution.
6 hours ago
UNI breaks through $7.3; Uniswap founder says v4 pools are a new gateway for compliant on-chain US stock trading.
According to HTX market data, UNI has surged past $7.3, gaining over 15.6% in the 24-hour period. Today, Uniswap founder Hayden Adams stated that for Automated Market Makers (AMMs), the most critical point is not the main text of the SEC’s "innovation exemption" but the accompanying opinion from Commissioner Hester Peirce. This means the general permissionless Uniswap is not included in this regulatory sandbox and does not need to apply for an exemption in the first place. The exemption applies to permissioned liquidity pools on Uniswap v4, a path that can be chosen when assets and users require compliant channels. Hayden Adams believes that permissioned Uniswap v4 pools are the new entry point for compliant on-chain US stock trading.
6 hours ago
Artificial Inu (AI) hits an all-time high market cap of over $360 million, surging 32.1% in 24 hours.
According to GMGN data, the crypto meme coin Artificial Inu (AI) on the Robinhood Chain has hit a new all-time high, with its market cap exceeding $360 million, a 24-hour gain of 32.1%, and trading volume of $23.9 million. Artificial Inu was launched via Long.xyz, a launchpad on the Robinhood Chain, and uses tokenized Nvidia stock as its liquidity pool, with liquidity provided via the AI/NVDA trading pair. BlockBeats Note: Stock Meme is an emerging concept that combines traditional meme coins with tokenized U.S. stocks. Unlike standard meme coins that pair with USDT or ETH, Stock Memes are directly paired with on-chain U.S. stock tokens (such as NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, etc.). This model retains meme coins’ high volatility and community-driven speculative traits while leveraging the popularity and narratives of real stocks. A portion of transaction fees is typically funneled back to the community treasury to accumulate the corresponding U.S. stock tokens, forming a dual-driven model of "sentiment-driven speculation + real asset anchoring". BlockBeats reminds users that token prices are highly volatile, so investment should be approached with caution.
6 hours ago
Backpack platform’s token BP surges past $0.53, with a more than 18.4% gain in the last 24 hours.
According to HTX market data, Backpack’s platform token BP has surged past $0.53, logging a more than 18.4% gain in the past 24 hours. The price movement is mainly driven by news that the SEC has approved limited trading of tokenized stocks on on-chain platforms. On July 10 this year, Backpack announced the launch of a 24/7 real US stock trading market for international investors, allowing eligible users to trade and hold actual US stocks around the clock rather than synthetic derivatives. Backpack stated that the platform provides actual equity ownership, leverages liquidity from traditional trading platforms, and supports instant settlement, continuous price discovery, as well as fiat and stablecoin settlements.
The total memecoin market capitalization is holding between about $34.7 billion and $38.4 billion. Reclaiming the sector’s 2024 peak would require much more than one viral token.
Bitcoin would need to remain stable, retail trading would need to return and capital would need to spread across both established memecoins and newer launch ecosystems.
Bitcoin Must Create a Risk-On Market Memecoins usually perform best after Bitcoin establishes a stable uptrend. When BTC becomes less volatile at higher levels, traders often move part of their capital into altcoins with greater risk and larger possible price swings.
The opposite also applies. A sharp Bitcoin decline can reduce memecoin liquidity quickly because traders move toward stablecoins or sell speculative positions.
For the memecoin market cap to reclaim its former peak, Bitcoin must hold major support while broader economic conditions improve. Lower inflation pressure, supportive interest-rate expectations and stronger spot demand could all encourage risk-taking.
Capital rotation must then move beyond Bitcoin and large altcoins. Without that second step, isolated memecoin rallies may not lift the complete category.
A stable foundation matters more than one short burst of leverage.
Retail Trading Volume Must Return The sector previously moved above a $69 billion valuation when retail participation and social interest were much stronger. Reaching that area again requires buyers across many tokens, not only a few large wallets.
Spot trading volume is especially important. Rising derivatives open interest without matching spot demand may create a rally built mainly on leverage.
That structure can reverse quickly when liquidations begin. Sustainable market-cap growth requires new holders, deeper decentralized exchange pools and continuing activity after the first price increase.
Established assets such as DOGE, SHIB, PEPE and BONK may attract the first wave because they already have major listings and known communities. Smaller tokens may follow if traders become comfortable taking more risk.
The sector also needs enough liquidity to support larger sell orders without creating severe price collapses.
Better Launch Rules Could Keep Capital in the Sector Repeated insider dumps and liquidity removals have damaged trust in new memecoins. Rules-based platforms may help keep more capital inside the market by making launch terms public.
MemeToro is developing an AI agent that scans market signals and prepares documented memecoin proposals. Its validator rejects unsupported evidence, insider allocations and supply totals that do not equal 100%.
The project’s fair-launch escrow draft has no owner, administrator or upgrade path. Contributor funds can only be refunded or sent to the planned executor for liquidity.
MemeToro also plans a dashboard combining memecoin trading, staking, prediction markets and AI-assisted discovery. $MT is intended to support access, funding and rewards across these functions.
This infrastructure cannot create a sector-wide rally by itself. It can provide clearer rules that may help users evaluate new launches before committing capital.
What Could Prevent a Return to the Peak? Several factors could stop the memecoin market cap from recovering:
Bitcoin could lose support and pull altcoins lower. Inflation or high interest rates could reduce speculative demand. Spot volume could weaken while leverage keeps rising. Major tokens could face insider selling or liquidity problems. Retail attention could move toward other crypto sectors. MemeToro’s own role depends on delivery. It has published 1,373 lines of new fair-launch code, but its final executor, PancakeSwap routing and BNB Chain testnet deployment remain development milestones.
$MT is available during Stage 7 at $0.00430 through BNB, ETH, supported stablecoins or card. Its displayed $0.05186 launch target remains dependent on liquidity and demand.
The memecoin sector can reclaim its previous peak, but only if broad market stability, real spot buying and stronger launch structures develop together.
Ethena Labs founder Guy Young wants to do something most crypto projects treat as heresy: build a business that doesn’t live and die by Bitcoin’s mood swings.
The protocol behind the synthetic dollar USDe is actively restructuring its revenue model to reduce exposure to the crypto market’s most familiar gravitational force, shifting toward tokenized real-world assets and diversified yield sources that can generate returns regardless of where BTC trades.
The delta-neutral dilemma Ethena’s core product, USDe, launched publicly in February 2024 with a clever but inherently crypto-dependent mechanism. The protocol pairs spot crypto collateral, think staked Ethereum or Bitcoin, with short positions in perpetual futures contracts. The long and short sides cancel each other out (that’s the “delta-neutral” part), while the protocol captures funding rates and staking rewards as yield.
When the market is bullish and leverage-hungry traders are paying premiums to go long, those funding rates can be generous. When sentiment flips, the math gets less friendly.
This is precisely the dependency Young is trying to break. If your entire revenue engine runs on crypto derivatives markets, your business cycle mirrors crypto’s boom-bust rhythm almost perfectly. For a protocol trying to offer a stable dollar product, that’s a structural tension worth resolving.
The supply trajectory of USDe tells the story clearly. It peaked above $14 billion in October 2025, then contracted to approximately $4 billion by late August 2026. That kind of drawdown, roughly 70% from the high, underscores how sensitive the synthetic dollar’s appeal is to broader market conditions.
Real-world assets enter the picture Ethena’s most tangible move away from crypto-native revenue has been a $200 million reallocation into tokenized AAA-rated collateralized loan obligations, specifically the Janus Henderson Anemoy fund. CLOs are pools of corporate loans bundled into securities, and the AAA-rated tranches sit at the top of the repayment waterfall. They’re about as far from a memecoin as financial instruments get.
The logic is straightforward. By parking a meaningful chunk of reserves in yield-bearing traditional assets that exist entirely outside crypto’s price cycles, Ethena can generate baseline revenue even during prolonged bear markets. It’s a hedge against the hedge, if you will.
Young’s background makes this pivot less surprising than it might seem. Before founding Ethena Labs in March 2023, he spent roughly six years at Cerberus Capital Management, a firm that manages tens of billions in credit, real estate, and private equity. The playbook of diversifying across uncorrelated yield sources is standard practice in traditional finance. Applying it to a crypto-native protocol is the novel part.
Payments, audits, and the institutional play The real-world asset reallocation isn’t the only iron in the fire. On September 1, 2026, Ethena launched the beta version of Ethena Pay on the Avalanche network. The service lets USDe holders spend their synthetic dollars through Visa cards, with yields up to 6% and rewards tied to the ENA governance token.
Turning a yield-bearing stablecoin into something you can tap at a coffee shop is a meaningful step for adoption. It transforms USDe from a DeFi instrument into something that looks, from the user’s perspective, like a high-yield checking account with a debit card attached.
On the compliance front, Ethena recently completed a SOC 2 Type II audit without exceptions. For the uninitiated, SOC 2 Type II is an auditing standard that evaluates how a company handles data security and operational controls over time. Passing clean is table stakes for any fintech company courting institutional money, and it’s increasingly becoming a differentiator in crypto, where many protocols still operate without comparable oversight.
These moves collectively paint a picture of a protocol trying to cross the credibility gap between DeFi experimentation and institutional-grade financial infrastructure.
The governance side is evolving too. An approved fee-switch proposal would direct 95% of net revenue toward ENA token buybacks, but it comes with a catch: the mechanism only activates when USDe supply hits $7.5 billion. With supply currently sitting around $4 billion, that target roughly doubles the current outstanding amount. It’s an incentive structure designed to align token holders with protocol growth, though reaching that threshold will require reversing the supply contraction of the past year.
Ethena’s strategic direction reflects a broader pattern emerging across major crypto protocols. Tether, the dominant stablecoin issuer, has been diversifying its reserves into US Treasuries and other traditional assets for years. Hyperliquid and other DeFi platforms are similarly exploring revenue models that don’t rely entirely on crypto trading volumes or token price appreciation.
The common thread is a recognition that purely crypto-native business models are inherently cyclical. When Bitcoin rallies, everything works. When it doesn’t, protocols bleed users, revenue, and relevance. Building durable financial infrastructure requires income streams that persist through downturns.
For Ethena specifically, the question is whether the pivot happens fast enough to matter. A 70% contraction in USDe supply suggests that the market has already voted with its feet during the current cycle. The combination of real-world asset yields, payment functionality, and cleaner compliance credentials gives the protocol a different pitch to make on the next upswing.
Whether that pitch resonates depends partly on execution and partly on how the competitive landscape evolves. The synthetic dollar space is getting more crowded, and every protocol entering it is studying the same playbook of delta-neutral strategies and RWA diversification. Ethena’s head start and institutional credibility give it an edge, but maintaining that lead while USDe supply sits well below its peak will test whether the new model can actually deliver on the promise of cycle-resistant revenue.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Gold had a 20-year head start. It might not matter.
Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, projects that US spot Bitcoin ETFs could see their assets under management triple that of gold ETFs within three to five years. The driving force behind the prediction is straightforward: younger investors are increasingly treating Bitcoin as their preferred store of value, and the money is following their conviction at a speed that has caught even optimistic forecasters off guard.
The numbers that matter Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. Within roughly 18 months, they had accumulated approximately $120 billion in total AUM, with net inflows surpassing $38 billion by mid-2025. To put that velocity in perspective, initial industry forecasts pegged first-year inflows at $10 billion to $15 billion. The actual figure blew past the high end of that range comfortably.
Gold ETFs, by contrast, took over a decade to reach comparable asset levels. The first gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), debuted in 2004. It took roughly 22 years from that inception for gold ETFs collectively to hit milestones that Bitcoin ETFs are approaching in a fraction of the time.
Balchunas draws a useful parallel between the two asset classes. Both Bitcoin and gold are non-yielding assets. Neither pays a dividend or generates cash flow. Their prices are driven almost entirely by market sentiment, macro uncertainty, and the collective belief that they serve as hedges against inflation or systemic risk.
Gold and Bitcoin are not fighting, they’re carpooling One of the more interesting data points undercutting the “Bitcoin vs. gold” narrative: investors are buying both. In the week ending August 26, 2026, Bitcoin and gold ETFs together attracted a combined $7 billion in inflows over just five trading days. GLD pulled in $3.4 billion during that stretch, while BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) received $1.5 billion.
James Seyffart, another Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, has noted that Bitcoin ETFs could eventually surpass gold ETFs in part because of broader portfolio use cases. Gold’s role in a portfolio is relatively narrow: it’s a hedge, a store of value, and occasionally a trade during geopolitical turmoil. Bitcoin has started to occupy a wider band, functioning as a macro hedge for some, a tech-adjacent growth bet for others, and a liquidity vehicle for traders who want 24/7 market exposure through regulated wrappers.
What triple actually means Both asset classes are characterized by historical periods of explosive gains followed by painful drawdowns. Bitcoin’s volatility profile is significantly more aggressive than gold’s, which means the same sentiment-driven inflows that push AUM higher can reverse quickly during risk-off episodes.
The ETF wrapper solved Bitcoin’s biggest distribution problem. Before January 2024, buying Bitcoin meant navigating exchanges, custody solutions, and a regulatory gray zone that kept most financial advisors on the sidelines. Now it sits inside the same brokerage accounts as everything else, with the same tax reporting and the same compliance infrastructure.
Gold ETFs went through a similar transformation two decades ago. Before GLD launched, gaining gold exposure meant buying physical bars, dealing with storage costs, or navigating futures markets. The ETF made gold accessible to any investor with a brokerage account. The $38 billion in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs suggests the early adopter phase is over.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
