Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
One of the crypto market's most paradoxical yet persistent signals has just flashed again. Bitcoin rose by nearly $2,500 only a few days after longtime CNBC Mad Money host Jim Cramer announced that he was completely exiting the asset because of the so-called quantum threat.
While Cramer was protecting his capital, Bitcoin rebounded from a local bottom at $62,200, moved higher and reclaimed the psychologically important $65,000 level. On social media and in trading chats, the move has already been described as another triumph of the "Inverse Cramer" strategy.
Jim Cramer gets scared of supercomputersCramer's radical decision was prompted by an interview with IBM CEO Arvind Krishna, who casually remarked that, within three to four years, advances in quantum computing could become a real threat to existing encryption methods.
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The television host took the comment as a call to action. Citing CoinDesk sources, media reports said that Cramer had liquidated all of his BTC holdings, deciding not to wait for quantum processors to crack the blockchain.
Bitcoin price action since Cramer announced he had sold his coins, Source: TradingViewThe crypto community responded to the news not with panic, but with relief and memes. Historically, Cramer's high-profile sales or bearish forecasts have surprisingly often coincided with a local price bottom, followed by a recovery. The same thing happened this time, as the market completely dismissed the host's concerns.
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As for the quantum threat, market participants considered the risks to be greatly exaggerated. Actual supercomputers capable of breaking modern cryptography are expected by some engineers to emerge only in 10 to 20 years, rather than within three years.
In addition, Bitcoin developers are already working on network upgrades and the implementation of post-quantum cryptography.
Finally, if such a breach ever becomes possible, Bitcoin would not be the first target. The entire global banking system and government databases would also be at risk.
In the end, one person's "quantum panic" turned into a short-term rally for everyone else. The market once again demonstrated that theoretical future threats still lose out to the classic rule: buy when capitulation is announced on television.
DeepSeek, Tencent and others receive strategic placement from Unitree Robotics.
Unitree Technology has disclosed its strategic placement list. Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research Co., Ltd. (DeepSeek) and Shanghai Qishan Investment Co., Ltd., a Tencent subsidiary, were selected as "large enterprises or their affiliates that have strategic cooperation relationships or long-term cooperation prospects with the issuer's business". The batch of strategic placement investors also includes China National Petroleum Corporation Kunlun Capital Co., Ltd., China Southern Power Grid Industrial and Financial Holding Group Co., Ltd., and other companies.
15 minutes ago
More than 4 billion shares of SpaceX may enter circulation within the year, posing potential selling pressure on its stock price in the short term.
SpaceX faces lock-up expirations for up to 911.5 million shares today, equivalent to over 140% of its current public float, which could heighten short-term stock price volatility. Following the company’s prior earnings release, its stock dropped 12% despite revenue exceeding forecasts and its AI business unexpectedly posting a profit. Additional share unlocks are scheduled for August 12 and 20 days later. By the end of this year, more than 4 billion shares are projected to become tradable, potentially exerting sustained selling pressure on the stock, though market focus remains on the company’s long-term fundamentals.
15 minutes ago
Serenity: Unitree Robotics' IPO May Boost Robotics Sector Valuation, Supply Chain Firms Like Leader Harmonic Drive to Benefit
Serenity noted in a report that Unitree Robotics’ implied market cap in the derivatives market stands at roughly $29.3 billion. Citing the performance of pre-IPO perpetual contracts for Cerebras and SpaceX, Serenity added that their related prices were relatively close to the respective listing opening prices. Based on Unitree’s projected IPO target valuation of $5.7 billion to $6.2 billion this month, the current derivatives implied valuation is about 370% to 414% higher, equivalent to 4.7 to 5.1 times the target. If Unitree can maintain this valuation post-listing, it could drive growth in the robotics sector. It cited robotics supply chain firms including Leaderdrive (Green Harmonic), Harmonic Drive, and Ouster, noting that industry leaders typically boost valuations of other peers in the same sector after listing, while stressing this does not constitute investment advice. Unitree is expected to proceed with its listing later this month, with the subscription period likely on August 10, and final issuance results to be announced on August 14. Agility Robotics may advance its related plans in the fourth quarter.
15 minutes ago
Walsh adheres to prudent market guidance, and will consider a September interest rate hike if inflation remains strong.
According to a report by the Financial Times, even after his decision to withhold too many details about interest rate strategy triggered a sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, Federal Reserve Chair Walsh has stuck to his usual concise communication style. People close to Walsh say he has acknowledged making some mistakes in his first 10 weeks leading the world’s most important central bank, including failing to reinforce his core message on price stability and sowing confusion over whether his long-term plans to overhaul the Fed would impact near-term policy decisions. However, they insist these mistakes are not enough to derail Walsh’s reform agenda for the Federal Reserve. Insiders also revealed that if inflation data released in the coming weeks comes in strong and market expectations for higher borrowing costs rise accordingly, Walsh is prepared to raise interest rates at the September policy meeting. Insiders added that while the Fed chair has raised the possibility of shrinking the central bank’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet to tighten monetary policy, interest rates remain the primary tool for now, and will be used at upcoming meetings if needed.
15 minutes ago
Trader gains $956K on $CASHCAT after $791K investment, another spent $519 ETH for 9.96M $CASHCAT
The trader who previously spent $791K to buy 13.14M $CASHCAT($1.75M now) is now up $956K. Another trader also spent $519 $ETH($985K) to buy 9.96M $CASHCAT 12 hours ago.
15 minutes ago
Pre-market US stocks in the storage, optical communications, and semiconductor sectors are all down, with Western Digital falling over 16% and SanDisk dropping more than 11%.
According to market data from BIT (bit.com), U.S. stocks were in pre-market trading on Thursday, with storage stocks, optical communications, and semiconductor stocks all declining. The storage sector led losses: Western Digital (WDC) fell 16.06%, SanDisk (SNDK) dropped 11.09%, SK Hynix (SKHY) decreased 7.01%, Micron Technology fell 5.79%, and Seagate Technology (STX) declined 5.57%. Most semiconductor stocks trended lower: Marvell Technology (MRVL) fell 2.14%, Intel (INTC) dropped 1.89%, and Arm (ARM) decreased 1.85%. All optical communication concept stocks saw declines: Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) fell 1.66%, Credo (CRDO) dropped 1.45%, and Astera Labs (ALAB) decreased 1.37%.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
TLDR Strategy-linked wallets moved 1,030 BTC worth $66.14 million between wallets A new wallet opened a $102.6 million leveraged short position on Bitcoin using Hyperliquid The Binance Whale Inflow Ratio climbed to 0.52, its highest level in four months Bitcoin is trading near $64,137 while defending support at $62,162 Traders are watching liquidation zones near $65,000 and $63,800 for the next price move Bitcoin traders are watching two events closely this week. Strategy moved more Bitcoin between wallets, and a new wallet opened a large short position on the price.
Both moves came as the wider market stayed uncertain about where Bitcoin heads next.
Strategy-linked wallets sent 1,030 Bitcoin worth about $66.14 million to another wallet. The company has made similar transfers before without selling any coins.
Still, the timing raised questions. Some traders wondered if large holders were becoming more cautious.
Around the same time, a new wallet deposited 2.44 million USDC into Hyperliquid, a crypto trading platform. That wallet then opened a 40x leveraged short on Bitcoin worth roughly $102.6 million.
The short position carries a liquidation price of $64,888.97. That level sits close to where Bitcoin is trading now, so small price swings could trigger a big change for that trade.
A mysterious trader is making a massive 40x short on $BTC!
A newly created wallet, 0xff84, deposited 2.44M $USDC into Hyperliquid and opened a 40x short on 1,600 $BTC($102.6M).
Liquidation price: $64,888.97.
Does he know something, or is this just a huge bet?… pic.twitter.com/78aY96F6xE
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 5, 2026
Whale Activity Rises on Binance Large Bitcoin holders, often called whales, have increased their activity on Binance. The Binance Whale Inflow Ratio climbed to 0.52, the highest reading in four months.
This means whales made up a bigger share of coins flowing into the exchange compared with smaller traders. In the past, similar spikes have shown up both near market tops and during sharp price drops.
Because of this, the signal alone does not point to a clear direction. It depends on how price behaves in the days ahead.
Despite the rise in whale activity, overall exchange flows stayed fairly steady. The daily Spot Netflow was positive at $21.10 million, showing more Bitcoin moving onto exchanges than leaving them.
Bitcoin Price Holds Key Support Bitcoin has traded near $64,137 this week. The coin continues to hold support at $62,162, which has kept the price from falling further.
Instead of a strong rebound, Bitcoin has moved sideways in a narrow range. The price has stayed below resistance at $66,835.
The Relative Strength Index, a tool traders use to gauge buying and selling pressure, rose back to 50.98. That level sits close to neutral, showing balanced momentum rather than a clear trend.
For buyers to gain more confidence, Bitcoin would likely need to close above $66,835. Without that, the price may keep bouncing between support and resistance.
Data from CoinGlass shows two zones where leveraged trades could be forced to close. One cluster sits near $65,000, and another is near $63,800.
If Bitcoin rises above $65,000, short sellers could be forced to buy back coins to close their positions. That kind of move can push the price higher fast.
If Bitcoin falls instead, it could reach the lower cluster near $63,800 and pressure traders who bet on higher prices. Both outcomes remain possible.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin remains stuck between these two pressure points. Traders are watching closely to see which side gives way first.
Cover image via depositphotos.com Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
Bitcoin is about to enter an important liquidity zone where price action and derivatives positioning indicate rising volatility. While downside liquidation pools have mostly been cleared during prior selloffs, the most recent 24-hour liquidation map indicates that liquidity is still highly concentrated above the current market price.
Asymmetric setup is formedOver the upcoming sessions, traders will be closely monitoring this asymmetric setup. The largest immediate concentration of short liquidations is located just above the current price, starting around $65,000, according to the most recent Hyperliquid liquidation data. This level is the closest significant liquidity magnet, with cumulative short leverage of more than 1,500 BTC concentrated around it.
BTC/USDT Chart by TradingViewAfter that, liquidation exposure keeps rising steadily until it reaches the $70,000–$75,000 range, where cumulative short positions start to grow considerably. In the past, markets have tended to favor locations with significant liquidation liquidity, especially when prices enter periods of low volatility.
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Therefore, as forced short covering increases buying pressure on an already rising market, a move through $65,000 could happen swiftly. A different story can be found on the other side of the map. Following Bitcoin's protracted correction, the majority of long liquidation clusters below the current price have already been significantly diminished.
Long leverage pockets still exist below $60,000, but they are much smaller than the concentration of shorts above.
From the standpoint of derivatives, this makes it easier to move upward, but it does not ensure that the price will do so right away. A similarly balanced picture can be seen in the daily chart. Bitcoin is still trading between its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with its price stabilizing at $64,500.
Moving averages are straighteningAfter a few weeks of sideways trading, the short-term moving averages have flattened, suggesting that bearish momentum has significantly diminished, even though the overall trend is still neutral. The declining 200-day moving average is still much higher at $72,500, while the next technical barrier is located around the 100-day moving average near $67,000.
The RSI has recovered to roughly 53, putting momentum in nearly neutral territory and providing room for a stronger directional move after the consolidation is over. As of right now, the liquidation map indicates that market makers and leveraged traders find upside liquidity to be a more alluring target.
But before that scenario can fully materialize, Bitcoin still needs to reclaim nearby resistance levels. Until then, the predominant short-term structure remains consolidation around current prices, with a break above $65,000 likely acting as the initial catalyst for a more significant move driven by liquidity.
Strategy’s Ultimate GoalStrategy’s official X handle posted a video of Michael Saylor from last week’s second-quarter earnings call, where he presented their flywheel capital strategy to become the world’s biggest company by market capitalization.
Saylor said the first step in this goal is to own the “most capital” in the form of Bitcoin, then aim for a 30% annual return on reserves in BTC.
And by issuing the “strongest credit,” Saylor said, the company could create the “best equity,” i.e, its common stock, MSTR.
Upside NeededAs of this writing, Strategy has a market capitalization of roughly $36 billion.
To dethrone Nvidia, Strategy would need an upside of roughly $5.26 trillion, or on the order of 140x-145x from today’s level, but this is based on NVDA’s current valuation, which would likely be much higher by the time MSTR reaches this level.
These numbers are purely mathematical. Actual outcomes will depend heavily on Bitcoin’s performance, the successful execution of the company’s credit-issuance strategy and market perception of MSTR.
Strategy Changes ApproachNotably, Saylor said during the call that the company believes its next trillion-dollar opportunity isn’t owning more Bitcoin—it’s building a business on top of it.
This signals a shift in Strategy’s long-term approach. Instead of solely accumulating Bitcoin, Saylor highlighted how the company’s Bitcoin holdings can underpin a new credit business.
Strategy reported quarterly revenue of $122.39 million last week, which just missed the consensus estimate of $122.91 million.
The firm holds over 842,138 Bitcoin, worth $58.51 billion, making it the largest institutional holder in the world.
Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $64,815.20, up 1.12% over the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Strategy shares were up 0.03% in pre-market trading after closing 0.74% higher at $98.37 during Wednesday’s regular trading session.
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that MSTR has underperformed with a weaker price trend across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
DeepSeek, Tencent and others receive strategic placement from Unitree Robotics.
Unitree Technology has disclosed its strategic placement list. Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research Co., Ltd. (DeepSeek) and Shanghai Qishan Investment Co., Ltd., a Tencent subsidiary, were selected as "large enterprises or their affiliates that have strategic cooperation relationships or long-term cooperation prospects with the issuer's business". The batch of strategic placement investors also includes China National Petroleum Corporation Kunlun Capital Co., Ltd., China Southern Power Grid Industrial and Financial Holding Group Co., Ltd., and other companies.
6 minutes ago
More than 4 billion shares of SpaceX may enter circulation within the year, posing potential selling pressure on its stock price in the short term.
SpaceX faces lock-up expirations for up to 911.5 million shares today, equivalent to over 140% of its current public float, which could heighten short-term stock price volatility. Following the company’s prior earnings release, its stock dropped 12% despite revenue exceeding forecasts and its AI business unexpectedly posting a profit. Additional share unlocks are scheduled for August 12 and 20 days later. By the end of this year, more than 4 billion shares are projected to become tradable, potentially exerting sustained selling pressure on the stock, though market focus remains on the company’s long-term fundamentals.
6 minutes ago
Serenity: Unitree Robotics' IPO May Boost Robotics Sector Valuation, Supply Chain Firms Like Leader Harmonic Drive to Benefit
Serenity noted in a report that Unitree Robotics’ implied market cap in the derivatives market stands at roughly $29.3 billion. Citing the performance of pre-IPO perpetual contracts for Cerebras and SpaceX, Serenity added that their related prices were relatively close to the respective listing opening prices. Based on Unitree’s projected IPO target valuation of $5.7 billion to $6.2 billion this month, the current derivatives implied valuation is about 370% to 414% higher, equivalent to 4.7 to 5.1 times the target. If Unitree can maintain this valuation post-listing, it could drive growth in the robotics sector. It cited robotics supply chain firms including Leaderdrive (Green Harmonic), Harmonic Drive, and Ouster, noting that industry leaders typically boost valuations of other peers in the same sector after listing, while stressing this does not constitute investment advice. Unitree is expected to proceed with its listing later this month, with the subscription period likely on August 10, and final issuance results to be announced on August 14. Agility Robotics may advance its related plans in the fourth quarter.
6 minutes ago
Walsh adheres to prudent market guidance, and will consider a September interest rate hike if inflation remains strong.
According to a report by the Financial Times, even after his decision to withhold too many details about interest rate strategy triggered a sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, Federal Reserve Chair Walsh has stuck to his usual concise communication style. People close to Walsh say he has acknowledged making some mistakes in his first 10 weeks leading the world’s most important central bank, including failing to reinforce his core message on price stability and sowing confusion over whether his long-term plans to overhaul the Fed would impact near-term policy decisions. However, they insist these mistakes are not enough to derail Walsh’s reform agenda for the Federal Reserve. Insiders also revealed that if inflation data released in the coming weeks comes in strong and market expectations for higher borrowing costs rise accordingly, Walsh is prepared to raise interest rates at the September policy meeting. Insiders added that while the Fed chair has raised the possibility of shrinking the central bank’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet to tighten monetary policy, interest rates remain the primary tool for now, and will be used at upcoming meetings if needed.
6 minutes ago
Trader gains $956K on $CASHCAT after $791K investment, another spent $519 ETH for 9.96M $CASHCAT
The trader who previously spent $791K to buy 13.14M $CASHCAT($1.75M now) is now up $956K. Another trader also spent $519 $ETH($985K) to buy 9.96M $CASHCAT 12 hours ago.
6 minutes ago
Pre-market US stocks in the storage, optical communications, and semiconductor sectors are all down, with Western Digital falling over 16% and SanDisk dropping more than 11%.
According to market data from BIT (bit.com), U.S. stocks were in pre-market trading on Thursday, with storage stocks, optical communications, and semiconductor stocks all declining. The storage sector led losses: Western Digital (WDC) fell 16.06%, SanDisk (SNDK) dropped 11.09%, SK Hynix (SKHY) decreased 7.01%, Micron Technology fell 5.79%, and Seagate Technology (STX) declined 5.57%. Most semiconductor stocks trended lower: Marvell Technology (MRVL) fell 2.14%, Intel (INTC) dropped 1.89%, and Arm (ARM) decreased 1.85%. All optical communication concept stocks saw declines: Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) fell 1.66%, Credo (CRDO) dropped 1.45%, and Astera Labs (ALAB) decreased 1.37%.
Strategy’s version, according to Michael Saylor, is not that story.
The executive chairman of Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has publicly stated that even a collapse in Bitcoin’s price to $5,000 would leave the company’s collateralization position intact. The reason, he argues, is straightforward: most of that capital was never borrowed in the first place.
Why overcollateralization matters here Strategy has issued Bitcoin-backed preferred securities with reported overcollateralization rates as high as 6x. In plain terms, for every dollar of obligation attached to those instruments, there are roughly six dollars of Bitcoin sitting behind it.
At a $5,000 price level, which would represent a drawdown of more than 90% from recent highs, most leveraged Bitcoin players would have been wiped out long before reaching that floor.
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Strategy has structured its exposure primarily through equity and preferred stock raises, not through debt that carries margin-call mechanics.
The numbers behind the conviction Strategy currently holds approximately 842,138 BTC, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin on the planet. The average cost basis sits near $75,000 per BTC, which means the total outlay exceeds $64 billion.
Early 2026 was not kind to that position. Bitcoin price declines generated paper losses estimated between $8 billion and $12 billion during the first quarter.
Paper losses on an equity-funded position are uncomfortable, but they’re not the same thing as a margin call. No one is forcing an asset sale because the price moved against you.
The firm updated its capital framework in mid-2026, introducing a provision that allows limited Bitcoin sales to cover dividends and liquidity needs. The framing from Strategy was careful: the company still describes itself as a net buyer over time.
That rebranding, from MicroStrategy to Strategy, accompanied these updates. The company is, in its own telling, a Bitcoin treasury company with a capital strategy built specifically around long-term accumulation and yield generation from Bitcoin-backed securities.
What this means for investors watching Strategy Paper losses in the $8 billion to $12 billion range are real costs to shareholders, even if they don’t trigger forced selling. The average cost basis of roughly $75,000 per BTC means the position was underwater at various points in early 2026.
The preferred securities Strategy has issued carry yield obligations. The 6x overcollateralization ratio provides a deep buffer, but the company still needs to generate enough capital to service those instruments over time. That’s where the new permission to sell limited Bitcoin holdings comes in.
The $5,000 floor claim is worth taking seriously as a stress test reference rather than a price prediction. If Strategy’s collateral remains solid at that level, it removes a major tail risk that has historically hung over the stock: the fear that a severe Bitcoin drawdown could force distressed asset sales. Saylor is essentially arguing that Strategy has been deliberately de-risked against that scenario through its capital structure, and the overcollateralization numbers, at least as reported, support that reading.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Several well-known industry figures, including former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, investor Robert Kiyosaki, Real Vision founder Raoul Pal, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, and Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, have forecast that Bitcoin (BTC) may reach $1 million by 2030. This ambitious target has sparked debate within the crypto community about whether Bitcoin can realistically achieve the seven-figure milestone in the next several years.
Bitcoin’s historical growth and market cyclesSince its inception, Bitcoin has displayed a recurring four-year cycle, marked by pronounced highs approximately every forty-eight months. Data shows that BTC reached a previous high of $19,118 in 2017, then surged to $67,549 in 2021, and climbed further to $126,080 in 2025. Many market observers expect this cyclical trend to continue, suggesting the possibility of another all-time high in 2029.
Some analysts caution that while historical patterns indicate significant price movement, the percentage gains appear to be decreasing with each cycle. For instance, Bitcoin’s leap from the 2017 to the 2021 peak was around 253%, whereas its growth from 2021 to 2025 was about 86%. Should this diminishing returns trend persist, projections for the next cycle suggest that Bitcoin may not rise by the magnitude required to surpass $1 million by 2030.
Bitcoin’s 2021 to 2025 peak level gain was around 86% while its 2017 to 2021 peak level gain was around 253%. If it happens to repeat, the chances of BTC’s next high being lower than an 86% increase are good. If it continues this trend, it’s improbable Bitcoin (BTC) will reach the $1 million mark by 2030.
While the market’s volatility can sometimes lead to unexpected surges, the alignment of diminished returns with each halving cycle tempers optimism regarding the $1 million target within the current timeline.
Plausible price targets and market expectationsDespite tempered outlooks on the million dollar forecast, many experts agree that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory over the coming years remains likely. The asset’s resilience over more than a decade supports ongoing expectations for growth, even if that growth is less extreme than the most optimistic predictions.
A more conservative scenario suggests that Bitcoin could potentially double in value from current cycle highs, with some analysts forecasting a climb past $200,000 during the next cycle. If historical patterns play out, BTC’s ascent could begin in 2027, reaching a peak sometime around 2029 before facing another market correction.
There is no denying that the chances are high for BTC to climb to new peaks in the coming years. However, $1 million may not happen by 2030. A more realistic goal would be a price jump by at least 2X. Bitcoin (BTC) could breach the $200,000 mark in its next cycle. The asset’s price will likely begin its ascent sometime in 2027, hitting a peak in 2029, before facing a correction.
With technical indicators playing a critical role in shaping investor expectations, constant market monitoring is increasingly important for participants seeking to identify major price levels and react quickly to potential breakouts or corrections. Platforms like CryptoAppsy, which requires no account creation hassle, combine portfolio management, real-time prices, customizable alerts, and macroeconomic news in a single interface. Investors can track their holdings, discover new altcoins, set targeted notifications for specific price movements, and stay informed regarding wider economic shifts such as Federal Reserve interest rates—all essential for navigating Bitcoin’s unpredictable cycles.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Bitcoin is outperforming the broader crypto market as traders rotate toward large-cap tokens like bitcoin and ether while altcoins see falling open interest and weak momentum.Derivatives data show a cautiously bullish tilt for bitcoin, with rising futures open interest, steady implied volatility and growing upside options bets, while XRP and SOL face leverage-driven pressure.NEAR’s new stake-to-compute model ties its token to AI computing power, but analysts say its success hinges on sustained real demand and usage once early incentives and subsidies fade.Bitcoin BTC$64,577.89 has added around 0.9% in the past 24 hours to $64,700, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) is up just 0.16%. Strength in equity markets, which have climbed to record highs, appears to leave the crypto sector unperturbed.
Crypto appears to be moving to the perceived safety of the biggest tokens, with bitcoin and ether ETH$1,906.44 the only CD20 members in positive territory. Zaheer Ebtikar, the chief strategy officer at crypto neobank Plasma, told CoinDesk altcoins are struggling “without aggressive support from bitcoin momentum.”
Altcoin open interest has fallen about 15% over the past month while bitcoin has gained roughly 8%, Ebtikar said. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season index fell one point from Wednesday to 42/100.
“Because Bitcoin has moved into capital markets plumbing with ETFs, basis trading, institutional hedging, and collateral, that flow doesn't need a rally to justify itself. However, most of the altcoin market hasn't made that transition yet,” Ebtikar said.
The divergence, according to Ebtikar, results from projects failing to clearly define how value accrues, making them unable to justify investors’ exposure to their tokens during market declines.
Adding to that, tech stocks are seeing weakness. Nasdaq 100 index fell while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose. That’s after Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) reported its first results since going public in June.
The IPO unveiled a massive surge in AI-linked capital spending that investors punished, bringing shares down 13% before the closing bell. The AI trade has been widely blamed for capital rotating out of the crypto sector. Its reversal could help renew enthusiasm.
Derivatives PositioningStarting with the good news: The long-short taker volume ratio for the crypto futures market flipped bullish for the first time in at least a week, with longs accounting for nearly 52%. Takers are traders who suck liquidity out of the order book by transacting at available prices.BTC open interest ticks up, but sustainability remains the question: BTC's futures open interest (OI) increased to 770K BTC. We've been here before several times since early June, but each time the spike was brief, with OI falling back to 740K BTC or lower the following day. What's needed is a sustained rise to show that confidence is being restored and investors are once again willing to on leverage. Other key metrics, such as annualized perp funding rates and 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD), are positive for BTC, supporting a bullish outlook.XRP's rising OI alongside falling price: XRP's OI has increased by 5% over the past 24 hours to 2.23 billion tokens while the token's price has dropped to $1.04, the lowest since early July. The combination of a falling price and rising OI is said to confirm, or validate, market weakness. This logic seems reasonable given that XRP's perp funding rates are negative, and its OI-adjusted CVD is among the most negative of the majors, second only to XLM. Some traders, it seems, are preparing for a deeper spot price slide.ETH stays lackluster, SOL leverage unwinds: Ether's OI tally remains lackluster, staying below the 14 million ETH mark and showing neither improvement nor position downsizing. That’s in contrast to SOL futures, where OI fell for another day to 60.81 million tokens, having peaked above 76.5 million tokens on June 24.Stock-tied perps rank among the most traded contracts: Some of the most traded perpetual futures contracts of the past 24 hours are those tied to stocks, such as SNK, SPCX and SKYHYNIX. These rank up there with crypto market leaders BTC and ETH, indicating persistent demand for trading legacy assets with a crypto flavor.Majors show mixed sentiment on 24-hour CVD: Major cryptocurrencies are displaying mixed sentiment, with BTC and ETH leading the pack on positive 24-hour CVD, while SUI, XLM, DOGE, AVAX and XRP sit on the other side. Positive CVD indicates that bulls are being more aggressive, trading at market orders rather than passive limit orders; negative CVD suggests the opposite.Implied volatility holds steady for BTC and ETH: Bitcoin implied volatility is unchanged from Wednesday, with the BVIV index continuing to hover near 36%, a level from which it has historically risen toward its mean. The same holds true for the ether index, EVIV.Options flow shows growing activity in upside bets: In Deribit options, bitcoin’s 24-hour volume ranking shows increased interest in calls, or bullish bets, at strikes well above the current spot price, such as the $96,000 and $80,000 calls. For ether, the $2,000 call is the most traded of the past 24 hours.Token TalkNEAR traded at $1.68 on Thursday, down 1.8% over 24 hours after slipping from an intraday high of $1.73. The token carries a $2.19 billion market cap, and its price hasn't tracked the ecosystem's AI-compute push higher.NEAR's move into AI-compute staking has a demand question looming. The network recently started a staking product that lets holders lock up NEAR to provision the computing power AI applications run on, tying the token's use to compute power rather than governance or speculation. The model only works if the demand behind it is real, said Leo Fan, CEO of Cysic.Credits aren't the same as usage. Stake-to-compute setups can give a token a clearer economic purpose, Fan said, but early activity is often driven by incentives, with developers showing up for rewards rather than because they need the compute. The test is whether that usage survives once the incentives normalize.Watch three things, Fan said. Utilization, meaning how much of the staked compute is actually being used, workload volume and whether developers keep paying after the subsidies taper. Sustained demand from AI builders will prove the model out. A drop-off when rewards fade would mark it as temporary.The read applies beyond NEAR. Tying a token to compute is one of the cleaner attempts to move crypto past governance-and-speculation utility, but it lives or dies on whether the compute gets used. NEAR is the test case others in the AI-crypto space will be watching.Related Assets
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The Evolution of the Crypto CEX Landscape: A Case Study on Binance
The Evolution of the Crypto CEX Landscape: A Case Study on Binance
Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.
Jun 29, 2026
Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.
Why it matters:
Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.
Bitcoin yatırımcılarının davranışları yeniden değişmeye başladı. Özellikle uzun vadeli yatırımcılar (LTH) tarafında görülen son hareketlilik, mevcut piyasa döngüsünde önemli bir aşamaya işaret ediyor olabilir. Zincir üstü veriler, Bitcoin için geçmiş döngülerde dip bölgelerine yakın dönemlerde görülen bazı ortak sinyallerin yeniden oluştuğunu gösteriyor. Bu durum, kripto para piyasası katılımcılarının yakından takip ettiği gelişmeler arasında yer alıyor.
Her ne kadar tek bir göstergeyle kesin bir sonuca ulaşmak mümkün olmasa da LTH arzı, SOPR oranı ve MVRV gibi metrikler birlikte değerlendirildiğinde piyasanın yeni bir birikim sürecine hazırlanabileceğine dair dikkat çekici ipuçları sunuyor.
Bitcoin Uzun Vadeli Yatırımcıları Neden Satışa Başladı? Uzun vadeli yatırımcıların elinde bulunan Bitcoin miktarı, yaklaşık 16 milyon BTC seviyesine kadar yükseldikten sonra ilk kez gerilemeye başladı. Buna karşın kısa vadeli yatırımcıların (STH) elindeki arzın hâlâ görece düşük seviyelerde kalması dikkat çekiyor.
Geçmiş döngülerde de benzer tablo görülmüştü. Deneyimli yatırımcılar fiyatların yükseldiği dönemlerde portföylerinin belirli bir kısmını satarak kâr realizasyonu yapmıştı. Ancak bu döngü öncekilerden önemli ölçüde ayrışıyor. İlk büyük yükseliş yaklaşık 31 ay sürerken, önceki döngülerde bu süre sırasıyla 8, 17 ve 16 ay olarak kaydedilmişti.
Uzmanlar, spot ETF girişleri, kurumsal yatırımcı ilgisi ve büyük cüzdanların devam eden alımları nedeniyle dağıtım sürecinin beklenenden daha geç başladığını düşünüyor. Buna rağmen LTH arzının hâlâ tarihi zirvelere yakın seyretmesi, satış baskısının henüz yeni oluştuğunu gösteriyor.
LTH/STH SOPR Oranı Ne Anlatıyor? Piyasadaki değişimi destekleyen bir diğer önemli gösterge ise LTH/STH SOPR oranı oldu. Bu metrik son dönemde 1 seviyesine oldukça yaklaşarak uzun ve kısa vadeli yatırımcıların kârlılık farkının belirgin şekilde azaldığını ortaya koydu.
Benzer görünüm daha önce 2015, 2019 ve 2022 yıllarında görülen piyasa diplerine yakın dönemlerde de ortaya çıkmıştı. O süreçlerde satış baskısı zamanla azalırken, piyasa yeniden birikim evresine geçmişti.
Bununla birlikte SOPR oranı henüz geçmiş döngülerde görülen güçlü birikim bölgesine tam olarak ulaşmış değil. Yine de mevcut görünüm, blok zinciri verilerinin yeni talep dalgası öncesindeki geçiş sürecine benzer sinyaller ürettiğine işaret ediyor.
Piyasa Analizi İle Yatırımcı Psikolojisi Aynı Yönde Mi? Zincir üstü göstergeler olumlu sinyaller üretirken yatırımcı psikolojisi aynı tabloyu yansıtmıyor. Crypto Fear & Greed Index hâlen 27 puan ile “Korku” bölgesinde bulunuyor. Bu da yatırımcıların temkinli duruşunu koruduğunu gösteriyor.
Öte yandan uzun vadeli yatırımcıların elindeki Bitcoin miktarı tarihi zirvelere yakın kalmaya devam ediyor. Ayrıca MVRV oranı da 1,21-1,22 bandına doğru sıkışmış durumda. Geçmiş döngüler incelendiğinde korku ortamının çoğu zaman zincir üstü veriler iyileşirken devam ettiği görülüyor.
Bitcoin İçin Dip Seviyesi Yakın Olabilir Mi? Tek başına hiçbir gösterge Bitcoin fiyatının kesin olarak dip yaptığını kanıtlayamaz. Ancak düşük kârlılık oranları, sıkışan değerleme metrikleri, uzun vadeli yatırımcıların güçlü pozisyonlarını büyük ölçüde koruması ve piyasadaki yoğun korku hissi birlikte değerlendirildiğinde geçmiş birikim dönemleriyle benzer bir tablo oluşuyor.
Bu nedenle mevcut veriler, Bitcoin’in yeni bir piyasa evresine yaklaşmış olabileceğini düşündürüyor. Yine de yatırım kararları alınırken zincir üstü göstergelerin yanı sıra makroekonomik gelişmeler ve genel kripto yatırımı dinamikleri de dikkate alınmalı.
Bu içerik kesinlikle yatırım tavsiyesi niteliği taşımamaktadır. Piyasalar yüksek risk içermektedir ve yatırım kararlarınızı almadan önce kendi araştırmanızı yapmanız önemlidir.
Son Dakika kripto para haberleri için hemen tıkla.
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PowerCompute has refinanced and consolidated $18 million of existing debt into a Bitcoin-backed credit facility using 307 BTC as collateral, lowering its borrowing cost while keeping its Bitcoin treasury intact.
Summary
PowerCompute has refinanced $18 million of debt through a Bitcoin backed credit facility using 307 BTC as collateral. The new loan replaces three existing facilities and lowers the initial interest rate to about 2% APR. The company said the refinancing lets it reduce borrowing costs without selling its Bitcoin holdings. The facility renews every 30 days with pricing reset according to market conditions. The refinancing comes as more companies use Bitcoin backed lending to unlock capital while retaining treasury exposure. According to a press release issued by PowerCompute on Wednesday, the Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin treasury and mining company completed the refinancing through a new facility from Arch Lending after first signing an agreement on July 27 and using a short-term bridge loan to combine its three outstanding loans before moving into the final structure on Aug. 3.
The transaction replaces an $11 million loan from Galaxy Digital, a $5 million loan from SE and AJ Liebel that financed the purchase of the company’s 15-megawatt Oklahoma mining site, and another $2 million loan from SE and AJ Liebel used to acquire its 11-megawatt Mississippi facility.
PowerCompute pledged 307 BTC from its treasury as collateral for the new loan. Rather than selling those holdings to reduce debt, the company is using them to secure financing while remaining exposed to any future appreciation in Bitcoin’s price.
PowerCompute has reduced borrowing costs with Bitcoin-backed refinancing After first entering a bridge loan that temporarily consolidated its three debt facilities over a three-day period, PowerCompute said it signed a Bitcoin industry non-recourse collateral loan facility with Arch Lending on Aug. 3.
The revolving facility renews every 30 days unless either party provides notice that it will not continue. At each renewal, the interest rate, floor price and ceiling price are reset according to prevailing market conditions.
PowerCompute said the facility initially carries an interest rate of about 2% APR. The company compared that with the 12% interest charged on its previous Liebel loans, saying the refinancing substantially lowers its financing costs and strengthens its capital structure.
Bruce M. Rodgers, the company’s chairman, chief executive officer and president, said the refinancing reduces interest expenses while allowing PowerCompute to keep strategic exposure to its Bitcoin treasury as it continues expanding into high-performance computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Arch Lending has structured the facility around Bitcoin collateral Arch Lending described the agreement as a Bitcoin-backed credit facility that incorporates a proprietary hedging structure intended to reduce liquidation risk while delivering lower financing costs.
Himanshu Sahay, co-founder and chief technology officer at Arch Lending, said the financing was designed around PowerCompute’s immediate funding needs while supporting its long-term Bitcoin treasury strategy. Instead of requiring the company to sell Bitcoin to repay debt, the structure allows it to refinance existing obligations while continuing to hold the asset.
PowerCompute nevertheless disclosed that the facility carries risks tied to Bitcoin’s market price. If the value of the collateral declines, the company may be required to post additional Bitcoin under the loan terms.
The company also noted in its forward-looking statements that the facility remains subject to ongoing compliance with its conditions alongside risks associated with cryptocurrency mining, expansion into HPC and AI infrastructure, equipment availability, financing conditions and changing regulations.
Bitcoin-backed corporate lending continues to gain traction PowerCompute’s refinancing adds to a growing number of companies using Bitcoin as collateral instead of selling treasury holdings to raise capital.
Earlier this year, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer said Metaplanet’s acquisition of Japanese brokerage Siiibo Securities could eventually support Bitcoin-backed corporate bonds through its newly formed Metaplanet Securities business. The proposal remains under development, but the company has outlined plans to create Bitcoin-linked debt products that could later settle onchain while using its regulated securities platform in Japan.
Institutional lending activity has also accelerated over the past two years. In October 2025, Two Prime Lending said it issued $827 million in Bitcoin-backed loans during the third quarter, lifting its cumulative lending volume above $2.55 billion since launching in March 2024. At the time, the lender said corporate treasuries, Bitcoin miners and trading firms were increasingly borrowing against Bitcoin instead of liquidating their holdings.
Coinbase also disclosed last year that its Bitcoin-backed lending service, built on the Morpho protocol through Base, had surpassed $1 billion in originations within roughly ten months of launch, illustrating continued institutional demand for crypto-collateralized financing.
Unlike conventional bank lending, Bitcoin-backed loans rely on digital assets rather than credit history as collateral. Such facilities are commonly over-collateralized to account for Bitcoin’s price volatility while allowing borrowers to access liquidity without immediately disposing of their holdings.
PowerCompute continues expanding beyond Bitcoin mining Founded in 2008 and headquartered in Tampa, Florida, PowerCompute describes itself as a Bitcoin treasury, mining and specialty finance company that is expanding into HPC and AI infrastructure.
The company currently operates 26 megawatts of wholly owned power infrastructure across its Oklahoma and Mississippi facilities. Alongside its mining operations, it also runs a technology-enabled specialty finance business that provides funding to nonprofit community associations in Florida.
The refinancing follows a period during which PowerCompute has been repositioning its balance sheet while developing computing infrastructure beyond cryptocurrency mining. By replacing higher-cost debt with a Bitcoin-backed facility, the company said it expects to reduce financing expenses while continuing to hold Bitcoin on its balance sheet under the new lending arrangement.
Strategy Inc.’s STRC perpetual preferred stock is showing signs of improvement as it inches closer to its $100 par value, according to a recent social media report. The company’s strategic sale of Bitcoin to fund STRC dividends and repurchases appears to be having a stabilizing effect on the stock’s value. This activity has reportedly allowed CEO Michael Saylor more flexibility to support STRC without significantly impacting Bitcoin’s spot price. Strategy’s recent sale of 1,638 BTC in early August, part of their broader financial strategy, has not triggered notable volatility in Bitcoin’s market, suggesting that the sales have been absorbed effectively.
The market’s confidence in STRC reaching its par value is reflected in prediction markets, where the probability of STRC hitting $100 by December 31 has increased to 56.5%. This represents a significant rise from 50% just 24 hours ago and 34% a week earlier. The September 30 sub-market also shows an increase, with a 41.5% probability, up from 34% the previous day. These trends indicate a growing belief among market participants that Strategy’s measures to stabilize STRC are proving effective.
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The company’s substantial Bitcoin reserves and strategic approach to managing preferred stock obligations, including a $4 billion reserve, seem to provide a buffer that reassures investors. As STRC inches closer to its target value, the market appears to interpret these developments as supportive of a positive outcome for the stock.
Key Takeaways STRC appears to be moving closer to its $100 par value, suggesting improved market confidence. Strategy’s Bitcoin sales seem to be absorbed without causing significant market instability for Bitcoin. Market pricing suggests increased confidence in STRC hitting $100 by the end of the year. What to Watch Future developments involving Strategy’s financial maneuvers could further influence STRC’s price trajectory. Key indicators include potential announcements of additional BTC transactions or strategic financial decisions by Strategy’s leadership. Investors may also look to upcoming financial reports or updates on the company’s reserve strategy for further cues. A continued rise in market confidence or any shifts in Strategy’s approach could significantly impact STRC’s market outlook.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 56.5% — — View market → September 30 41.5% — — View market →
Sandisk and Western Digital fell roughly 10% in pre-market trading as their forward outlooks failed to match elevated expectations.Sandisk and Western Digital have gained more than 3,000% and 550%, respectively, over the past 12 months, propelled by the AI boom and leaving assets such as crypto and precious metals in the rearview mirror.Now with AI momentum cooling, gold surging and bitcoin holding above $64,000, crypto may be preparing for a resurgence.Sandisk (SNDK) and Western Digital (WDC), two of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI storage boom, were both 10% lower in pre-market trading Thursday, despite reporting strong quarterly results.
Sandisk posted record fourth-quarter revenue of $8.97 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $39.25, comfortably beating expectations. Western Digital also delivered a double beat, reporting revenue of $3.75 billion, up 44% year over year, while its gross margin surged to 54.4%. Despite those results, both stocks are now trading roughly 50% below their all-time highs.
The problem was guidance. Sandisk’s first-quarter outlook came in below expectations, with projected revenue of $10.7 billion versus the $11.2 billion analysts had estimated. Its EPS guidance also fell short. Western Digital’s first-quarter outlook was solid, but after a 500% run, investors were looking for another blowout beat.
Sandisk and Western Digital have gained more than 3,000% and 550%, respectively, over the past 12 months, propelled by the AI boom and leaving assets such as crypto and precious metals in the rearview mirror.
In addition, Sandisk’s board of directors has also approved an additional $14 billion share buyback program, bringing the total authorization to $15.5 billion.
But with the AI trade beginning to stall, a rotation may be taking shape. Gold has risen more than 7% over the past few days, while bitcoin is holding above $64,000 and shrugging off the Coldcard exploit with little reaction.
Crypto traders may view these indicators as a signal of a change in momentum, given the prevalent narrative that investors have been rotating capital into AI with bitcoin one of the major casualties.
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The Evolution of the Crypto CEX Landscape: A Case Study on Binance
The Evolution of the Crypto CEX Landscape: A Case Study on Binance
Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.
Jun 29, 2026
Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.
Why it matters:
Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.
Bitcoin’s biggest holders are doing what they tend to do when everyone else is panicking: buying more.
Whale wallets, defined as large addresses excluding exchanges, mining pools, ETFs, and corporate treasuries, now hold approximately 3.06 million BTC. That’s a significant rebound from a low of roughly 2.87 million BTC recorded in December 2025, representing nearly 190,000 BTC in net accumulation over about eight months.
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The accumulation playbook The buying spree kicked into higher gear after Bitcoin slipped below $60K in June 2026. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has characterized the current positioning as reflecting “the final phase of the cycle’s decline.”
The 30-day growth rate for whale holdings has been positive for much of 2026. Current whale holdings still sit below the 2025 bull market peak of approximately 3.23 million BTC. That gap of roughly 170,000 BTC suggests that while the biggest players are clearly positioning, they haven’t gone full conviction yet.
What the numbers actually tell us Bitcoin has been trading in a range between $64,640 and $64,760. The realized price sits at approximately $52,900. The fact that Bitcoin trades about 22% above its realized price means the network as a whole is still in profit.
The whale accumulation pattern also isn’t happening in isolation. Similar behavior has been observed in Ether and XRP, where large holders have been increasing their positions during the downturn.
What this means for investors The $52,900 realized price level is worth watching closely. If whale accumulation continues while Bitcoin holds above that threshold, it strengthens the case for a durable floor. A break below realized price would signal genuine distress and potentially accelerate selling as the broader network moves into aggregate loss.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has shown renewed upward momentum in recent days. At this point, with BTC once again surpassing $65,000, new assessments for BTC have come from Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the China-based mining pool BTC.top.
Accordingly, Chinese founder Jiang Zhuoer argued, based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, that the current correction has not yet reached the level of previous bear markets in terms of duration or depth.
At this point, Zhuoer argues that if past cycles repeat themselves, BTC could fall to $44,016 by the end of October.
Jiang noted that the previous three major bear markets followed a very similar pattern in terms of both duration and price decline, adding that this year has not yet reached that range. At this point, Jiang suggests that the current downward trend may continue.
Based on past cycles, Jiang says that the maximum declines were 86.9%, 84.1%, and 77.6%, and for the current cycle, he predicts a more limited but still sharp pullback of 65.1%.
Analyzing that Bitcoin’s price could fall to $44,016 if this limited decline scenario materializes, Zhuoer stated that the potential bottom could be seen by the end of October.
*This is not investment advice.
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Bitcoin price approached $65,000 on Aug. 6 as easing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz and improving technical momentum supported its recovery from the low-$62,000 region.
Summary
Bitcoin price rallied nearly 4% from its Aug. 3 low before meeting resistance around $65,000. The 4-hour chart places the upper Bollinger Band at $65,221, reinforcing near-term resistance. Liquidation clusters sit near $65,000–$65,500, with downside liquidity concentrated around $63,000. A confirmed breakout could expose $67,365 and $68,000, while losing $63,700 would weaken the setup. Bitcoin price action today According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $64,615 at the time of writing after reaching an intraday high of $64,999. The move extended its recovery from approximately $62,300 on Aug. 3 to almost 4%.
The rebound followed reports of progress between Iran and Oman over a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the two countries had reached an understanding on the route’s coordinates, although several details were still under discussion. The development has not guaranteed a permanent reopening of the waterway.
Brent crude remained below $80 as traders assessed whether the negotiations could reduce risks to global energy supplies. Lower oil prices can support crypto and other risk assets by easing inflation pressure, but any breakdown in talks could reverse that effect.
Bitcoin has still lagged the recent U.S. equity rally. The S&P 500 gained more than 3% during the opening days of August, while Bitcoin added about 2% over the same period. Bitcoin-specific concerns, including the COLDCARD wallet exploit and questions surrounding corporate treasury sales, have limited the recovery.
Bitcoin technical indicators favor further recovery The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin trading above the Bollinger Band basis at $64,020. The upper band stands at $65,221, making the $65,000–$65,220 area the first major obstacle for buyers.
Bitcoin price 4-hour chart — Aug. 6 | Source: crypto.news The Awesome Oscillator has climbed to 1,071 and is printing expanding green bars. This suggests that bullish momentum is strengthening despite Bitcoin’s small rejection from the intraday high.
A 4-hour close above $65,220 could confirm a Bollinger Band breakout. Bitcoin would then face previous swing resistance around $66,000 before challenging the $67,000–$68,000 region.
However, a rejection could pull the price back toward the middle band at $64,020. The lower band near $62,819 represents a wider invalidation area for the short-term recovery.
The daily chart presents a more cautious picture. Bitcoin has reclaimed the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $63,715, calculated from the February low of $57,815 to the May high of $82,816.
Bitcoin price daily chart — Aug. 6 | Source: crypto.news Daily RSI has risen to 52.96 and remains above its signal average of 49.46. The reading supports mild bullish momentum without placing Bitcoin in overbought territory.
MACD remains less convincing. The MACD line sits at 25.31, below the 29.83 signal line, while the histogram is slightly negative at minus 4.51. The narrow gap suggests bearish momentum is fading, but a confirmed bullish crossover has not occurred.
Liquidation heatmap puts $65,500 in focus CoinGlass’ 3-day liquidation heatmap shows a dense concentration of leveraged positions immediately above Bitcoin’s current price. Liquidity is clustered between approximately $65,000 and $65,500, with additional pockets extending toward $66,000.
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass A move through this area could liquidate short positions and accelerate the breakout. This potential short squeeze may explain why traders are watching for a sweep above $65,000 before deciding whether the recovery can continue.
The heatmap also shows major downside liquidity around $63,700–$63,900 and $63,000–$63,200. These zones could attract price if buyers fail to hold $64,000.
The $63,715 Fibonacci level aligns closely with the first downside liquidation cluster. Its loss would expose $63,000, followed by the 4-hour lower Bollinger Band around $62,819.
Below that point, attention would return to the Aug. 3 recovery zone and the daily range floor near $60,000. A break beneath $60,000 would invalidate the current sequence of higher short-term lows.
Analysts identify $68,000 as the breakout target Analyst Ted Pillows identified $65,000 as Bitcoin’s immediate resistance and said reclaiming it could open the next leg higher.
“BTC is right at its $65,000 resistance zone. Reclaim this, and Bitcoin could rally towards $68,000 next.”
His chart places further resistance around $67,400 and $69,700, broadly aligning with the daily Fibonacci resistance at $67,365.
Trader Lennaert Snyder also pointed to $65,000 as the key test after a 4-hour close above $64,000 triggered the latest advance. However, he warned that price is high within its recent range and could first sweep liquidity above $65,000 or the prior weekly high near $65,400.
$BTC is testing the 65K high.
As mentioned earlier this week, we see how important the 64K level is.
One 4H close above that momentum line triggered a move to the upside.
My long entry at 63K was too defensive and Bitcoin pumped without me, part of the game.
As of now, the… pic.twitter.com/opL9I3ocol
— Lennaert Snyder (@LennaertSnyder) August 6, 2026 The combined charts leave Bitcoin at a decision point. Holding above $63,715 keeps the recovery intact, while a close above $65,220 would strengthen the case for $67,365 and $68,000. Failure to clear resistance would return focus to the liquidity pools near $63,700 and $63,000.
US market context remains a key catalyst For U.S. investors, Bitcoin’s next move may depend partly on Wall Street risk appetite and incoming Federal Reserve signals. U.S. equity futures were mixed on Aug. 6, with semiconductor weakness offsetting gains among several large technology companies.
Progress on the Hormuz negotiations could lower energy-related inflation risks and help risk assets. Renewed geopolitical tension, higher oil prices or hawkish Fed expectations would instead increase the probability of another Bitcoin rejection near $65,000.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
On-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant has reported that investors known as “whales,” who hold large amounts of assets in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP, have recently increased their holdings. According to the company, this trend indicates that the cryptocurrency market may be approaching the final stage of its long-running bear cycle.
According to an analysis shared by CryptoQuant, it has been noted that historically, a significant indicator is when large investors buy rather than sell during periods of continued price decline. Similar movements have been observed in past market cycles when long-term investors believed prices had reached attractive levels.
However, the analytics firm emphasized that the current data alone is not sufficient to confirm the market bottom. According to CryptoQuant, while whales buying is considered a positive signal, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices may fall further before a bottom formation is finalized. Therefore, investors should be cautious about short-term fluctuations.
Experts note that the accumulation process of whales is often part of a long-term investment strategy. Large investors prefer to buy at low prices during periods when fear dominates the markets, while individual investors often act more cautiously due to uncertainty. This is a common characteristic observed many times in the final stages of market cycles in the past.
CryptoQuant noted that while there are signs that the bear market may be approaching its final phase, macroeconomic developments and global liquidity conditions will continue to be decisive factors in price movements. In particular, central bank monetary policies, regulatory developments, and the attitude of institutional investors towards the market are among the main factors influencing the direction of crypto assets.
*This is not investment advice.
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US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) drew $244.4 million in net inflows on Wednesday, bolstering their momentum as August began.
Bitcoin ETF inflows intensifySpot Bitcoin ETFs in the US started the month with a strong performance, locking in a combined $626 million in net inflows across three consecutive sessions, according to data from SoSoValue.
Among these, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), a product from leading asset manager BlackRock, led the sector with $479 million in net inflows during the three-day span. Cumulative net inflows for IBIT have now reached nearly $61 billion, Farside Investors reported.
The surge in ETF inflows followed Bitcoin’s price moving above $64,920 at one point on Wednesday. Bitcoin was last recorded at $64,744.53, representing a 0.7% increase over the last 24 hours, based on CoinGecko figures.
Market sentiment and price movementDespite strong inflows and a positive price trend, sentiment among cryptocurrency investors remained cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which monitors the emotional state of the broader crypto market, held steady in the “Extreme Fear” zone with a score of 25, falling from 27 the previous day.
Many investors and analysts view sustained ETF inflows as an indicator of growing institutional interest in Bitcoin. However, persistent fears about market volatility and security risks have kept overall sentiment restrained.
BlackRock, headquartered in New York, is the world’s largest asset manager. Its iShares ETFs play a significant role in the development of crypto-backed products for institutional and retail investors.
Mini dictionary: Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a tool that aggregates various market indicators to gauge the prevailing sentiment among cryptocurrency investors. Scores below 25 are considered “Extreme Fear,” potentially signaling undervalued market conditions or pessimism among participants.
Ethereum and XRP ETFs move in opposite directionsOn Wednesday, spot Ether and XRP ETFs exhibited diverging trends. Spot Ether ETFs registered $60.9 million in net inflows, marking the second consecutive day of positive net flows. This brought total inflows for Ether ETFs over the two-day period to $114.6 million.
Meanwhile, XRP ETFs recorded $3.58 million in net outflows. These withdrawals reduced net assets in XRP ETFs to $993.4 million, while cumulative net inflows for the asset class stayed at $1.51 billion.
ETFLatest Net Inflows/Outflows2-3 Day Total InflowsCumulative Net InflowsTotal Net AssetsSpot Bitcoin ETFs+$244.4 million (Wed)+$626 millionN/AN/AiShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)N/A+$479 million~$61 billionN/ASpot Ether ETFs+$60.9 million (Wed)+$114.6 million (2 days)N/AN/AXRP ETFs-$3.58 million (Wed)N/A$1.51 billion$993.4 millionPerformance data for Wednesday underscores the varied investor appetite for different cryptocurrency-backed ETFs, highlighting divergent patterns for Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US accumulated $626 million in net inflows over three consecutive days, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, which contributed $479 million and raised cumulative net inflows to nearly $61 billion.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
TLDR Bitcoin ETFs added $244.4 million on Wednesday, marking a third straight day of inflows The three day streak brought in $626 million total BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF led the pack with $479 million over the three sessions Bitcoin briefly rose above $64,920 before settling near $64,744 Ether ETFs gained $60.9 million while XRP ETFs saw $3.58 million in outflows US listed spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds pulled in $244.4 million in net inflows on Wednesday. This marked the third straight day of gains for these funds.
The three day run added up to $626 million in total inflows. The figures come from data tracked by SoSoValue.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have started August on a strong note. Investors have been steadily adding money back into these funds this week.
BlackRock Leads the Pack BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust brought in the most money during this stretch. The fund attracted $479 million over the three trading sessions.
That pushed the fund’s total net inflows to nearly $61 billion. This data comes from Farside Investors.
The fund has stayed at the top of the list among Bitcoin ETFs during this recent streak. No other fund came close to matching its inflow total.
Bitcoin Price and Market Mood Bitcoin briefly climbed above $64,920 on Wednesday. This happened as the inflows kept coming in.
The price later settled at $64,744.53. That was up 0.7% over the previous 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.
Despite the price gain, investor sentiment stayed cautious. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remained in “Extreme Fear” territory.
The index scored 25 on Wednesday. That was down slightly from 27 the day before.
This index measures overall sentiment toward Bitcoin and other large cryptocurrencies. A lower score points to more fear in the market.
Ether ETFs also saw money coming in during this stretch. These funds added $60.9 million on Wednesday.
That marked the second straight day of inflows for Ether ETFs. Their two day total reached $114.6 million.
XRP ETFs told a different story this week. These funds recorded $3.58 million in net outflows on Wednesday.
That outflow reduced XRP ETF total net assets to $993.4 million. Cumulative net inflows for these funds still stood at $1.51 billion.
The mixed results show that not every crypto ETF moved in the same direction this week. Bitcoin and Ether funds gained ground while XRP funds lost some.
US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of $244.4 million on Wednesday, continuing a three-day winning streak. Over this period, inflows reached $626 million, signaling renewed investor interest at the start of August.
BlackRock’s dominant positionBlackRock, the world’s largest asset management company, remains the frontrunner among Bitcoin ETFs. Its iShares Bitcoin Trust attracted $479 million in inflows over the last three trading sessions, according to data from Farside Investors.
The fund’s total net inflows have climbed to nearly $61 billion, maintaining its leading role in the sector. No other US spot Bitcoin ETF matched BlackRock’s inflow figures during this recent period.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust drew $479 million in three days, pushing total net inflows near $61 billion and solidifying its position as the leading US spot Bitcoin ETF for this week.
Investors have steadily returned capital to BlackRock’s and other spot Bitcoin ETFs, underlining confidence in these products amid fluctuating market sentiment.
Bitcoin price holds steady, market remains cautiousBitcoin’s price briefly surged above $64,920 on Wednesday as positive fund flows continued. By the close of the day, the leading cryptocurrency was trading near $64,744, representing a 0.7% gain over the previous 24 hours, based on data from CoinGecko.
Despite the rebound, market participants exhibited caution. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a widely referenced measure of investor sentiment in cryptocurrency markets, scored 25 on Wednesday, indicating persistent “Extreme Fear.” This marked a slight decline from the previous day’s score of 27.
The index tracks emotions and attitudes across the digital asset market, with lower values reflecting heightened fear among investors.
Mini dictionary: Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a metric that evaluates overall investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency market using factors such as volatility, trading volumes, and social media activity.
Ether and XRP ETFs divergeSpot Ether ETFs also attracted fresh investment, with net inflows of $60.9 million on Wednesday. This marked the second consecutive day of positive flows, lifting their two-day total to $114.6 million.
In contrast, XRP ETFs reported net outflows of $3.58 million on Wednesday. As a result, total net assets in XRP ETFs dropped to $993.4 million. However, cumulative net inflows across all XRP ETF products remained positive at $1.51 billion.
ETFNet inflow/outflow (Wednesday)Recent streak totalTotal net assetsBitcoin (all US spot ETFs)$244.4 million (inflow)$626 million (3 days)N/ABlackRock iShares Bitcoin TrustIncluded above$479 million (3 days)Nearly $61 billionSpot Ether ETFs$60.9 million (inflow)$114.6 million (2 days)N/AXRP ETFs$3.58 million (outflow)N/A$993.4 millionThe differing trends across major crypto ETFs highlight varied investor sentiment. While both Bitcoin and Ether products saw meaningful gains, XRP ETFs lost ground as net assets declined for the week.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
While volatility continues to dominate the crypto market, the largest investors follow a contrary path. According to the latest “Smart Money” report from CryptoQuant, the most influential wallets are massively accumulating bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, despite a climate marked by uncertainty. This buying strategy comes at a time when several valuation indicators return to levels historically associated with the ends of bear markets. Behind these movements lies a deep trend: an increasing concentration of assets in the hands of institutional investors.
In Brief Whales have accumulated nearly 190,000 additional BTC since December 2025, bringing their reserves to 3.06 million Bitcoin. Giant wallets (10,000 to 100,000 ETH) reach an all-time high of 19.6 million Ether. Big players accumulate the token without rushing the prices, maintaining dominant spot activity. According to CryptoQuant, this liquidity absorption during a downturn is the classic marker of savvy investors. The explosion of whale reserves on bitcoin and Ethereum While a whale just moved 1 billion in bitcoins, the analysis report reveals a massive transfer of liquidity towards very large-cap wallets. CryptoQuant data confirms that large holders systematically take advantage of prolonged downturn phases to increase their exposure, to the detriment of the market’s most vulnerable investors.
This discreet buying phenomenon has accelerated dramatically over recent months on the two main protocols of the ecosystem. The concentration of tokens in the hands of high-capital entities now reaches record levels, as evidenced by precise on-chain metrics :
Bitcoin (BTC) : whale reserves rose from 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 to about 3.06 million BTC, with a marked acceleration after falling below 60,000 dollars in June ; Ethereum (ETH) mid-tier : wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH reached an all-time combined high of 19.6 million ETH ; Ethereum (ETH) giant wallets : addresses holding over 100,000 ETH absorbed nearly 1.8 million additional ETH since mid-2025. This frenzy of accumulation observed on the sector’s two giants profoundly changes the ownership structure of circulating tokens. By removing a considerable amount of assets from the liquid market during price downturns, major players mechanically reduce the immediately available supply. CryptoQuant sums up this strategy with an unequivocal theoretical conclusion: “increase in whale balances during price weakness is the clearest indicator of savvy investors”. Thus, this absorption capacity during price contraction episodes demonstrates experienced investors’ willingness to build major positions in anticipation of the next cycle.
The gap in realized prices and passive absorption on the XRP crypto Beyond the increase in wallet balances, the analysis of the realized price, the estimation of the average on-chain break-even price for all coins, provides essential insight into the fundamental value of assets. Current data show divergent configurations: bitcoin trades at 63,935 dollars against an estimated realized price of 52,900 dollars, while Ether trades in an undervaluation zone at 1,858 dollars compared to a realized price of about 2,450 dollars. XRP stands at around 1.10 dollars, trading within a range between 1 and 1.20 dollars, for an estimated realized price of about 0.75 dollars.
On the Ripple crypto market, the average size of spot orders remains firmly in the category of large whales defined by CryptoQuant. However, the metric of the cumulative taker volume delta over 90 days remains neutral. This fundamental technical detail reflects a dynamic of passive absorption of sell orders by big players, rather than aggressive impulse buys at market price. Such behavior confirms that savvy investors methodically accumulate liquidity sold by the impatient without prematurely pushing prices up.
Market floor and seller capitulation signals This accumulation phase aligns with other research works identifying end-of-bear-cycle indicators. The company 10x Research notes in this regard that bitcoin could validate confirmation of a bear market bottom by managing to close monthly above the key level of 63,000 dollars.
For its part, firm K33 indicated in a report published on July 7 that the main crypto historically reaches the lowest point of its cycle in the weeks following the moment when more than half of its circulating supply is held at a loss.
Nevertheless, a rigorous analysis requires tempering these promising prospects. Although this pattern of accumulation by whales has historically preceded market bottoms, CryptoQuant explicitly reminds that the market remains exposed to further downside risks in the short term. Final confirmation of a bottom will depend on the market’s ability to transform this passive absorption into a sustainable buying impulse.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Glimpse, a renowned Bitcoin-native forecasting platform, is expanding its portfolio. In this respect, Glimpse is adding forecasting services for Gold, Solana, and Ethereum. As per Glimpse’s official press release, the expansion is a noteworthy milestone in its growth trajectory, offering new opportunities to consumers. Hence, the move enables forecasts across diverse assets, elevating Glimpse’s position within the world of financial forecasting.
Glimpse Includes Gold, Ethereum, and Solana in Forecasting Portfolio to Expand $BTC-Native Rewards The expansion of Glimpse’s forecasting portfolio with Gold, Solana, and Ethereum highlights a significant user interest in the company’s cutting-edge approach to a broader range of assets traded worldwide. Unlike conventional trading entities, Glimpse is not dependent on a simple buy-and-sell mechanism. Rather, it permits participants to make forecasts regarding an asset within a price range.
Consumers making precise forecasts obtain rewards in Bitcoin ($BTC). This establishes a new incentive-led way to interact with diverse financial markets. The respective framework guarantees that traders get potential benefits during volatile market periods but also when markets are not bullish. Particularly, Gold, Solana, and Ethereum’s inclusion denotes Glimpse’s focus on platform diversification while also maintaining a $BTC-native foundation.
The Glimpse Co-founders, Ruban Sundara Raj and James Pierog, also expressed enthusiasm while reflecting on this expansion. They said, “Whether you think Ethereum is undervalued, Gold is about to rally or Bitcoin is entering a range, Glimpse lets you put that view to the test.” Moreover, they added, “Every forecast also contributes to a live picture of where the market collectively expects these assets to go, giving traders valuable insight alongside the opportunity to earn Bitcoin.”
Redefining Financial Forecasting with Unique Trader Opportunities One of the notable benefits of this expansion for traders takes into account earnings in Bitcoin ($BTC). Additionally, the other advantages include opportunities even during sideways markets, rapid network transactions, access to collective expectations, and the chance to test their market conviction in comparison with other traders.
At the same time, Glimpse is currently progressing through the in-principle authorization process of the Bermuda Monetary Authority. According to Glimpse, the inclusion of Gold, Ethereum, and Solana assists it in developing a home for comprehensive financial forecasting for Bitcoin ($BTC).
Along with that, the move also lets it gradually move toward the goal of offering a leading forecasting entity for worldwide financial markets and digital assets. Overall, the latest expansion emerges as a key step in the firm’s mission to revolutionize financial forecasting, establishing a dynamic hub that gives opportunity for conviction and rewards for accurate foresight.
AUTHOR
Crypto journalist with years of experience providing in-depth analysis and news on blockchain and decentralized finance. With a keen eye for detail, Shahzaib delivers insightful articles that explore the latest trends, market movements, and innovations within the crypto and blockchain ecosystem. His work focuses on educating readers while offering expert commentary on the evolving landscape of digital assets, DeFi protocols, and the broader impact of blockchain technology.
The cryptocurrency market is somewhat lethargic on Thursday, with Bitcoin (BTC) approaching $65,000, Ethereum (ETH) holding above $1,900 while Ripple (XRP) trades under pressure around $1.05. This mixed outlook comes ahead of a potential deal between Iran and Oman on the management of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Still, Iran has denied negotiations with the United States (US).
Iran and Oman eye Strait of Hormuz dealIran and Oman are reportedly nearing the finalization of a strategic framework for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite progress, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi emphasized to Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) that any agreement would not necessarily guarantee the immediate reopening of the waterway.
A senior Gulf official assesses the probability of a deal being reached by Friday at 50%.
US Vice President JD Vance stated in a Fox News interview that negotiations with Iran are likely to be “messy”, citing significant challenges posed by Iran’s fractured political system and negotiating stance.
Moreover, Iran has continued to deny negotiations with the US despite President Donald Trump's optimism on Tuesday that a deal could be announced this week.
Despite Bitcoin and Ethereum sustaining a slightly short-term bullish outlook, crypto market sentiment is back in Extreme Fear territory at 25 on Thursday, down from 27 the day before. This broadly means that appetite for risk assets remains on the back foot as investors assess the direction the US and Iran are likely to take if negotiations fail.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative"Investors remain focused on several key variables, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, global liquidity conditions, the performance of the US Dollar (USD), and developments in the international geopolitical landscape,” Simon-Peter Massabni, Business Development head at XS.com, said in a comment.
Bitcoin builds on reclaimed supportBitcoin holds a modest bullish bias as it trades above the short-term 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $64,673 and above the reclaimed downtrend resistance trendline around $63,514, while still capped by the Parabolic SAR at $65,404.
Momentum is constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 54 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line turning slightly positive, which together hint that buyers are gradually regaining control even though the broader trend remains constrained by the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $67,043 and $72,505, respectively.
BTC/USDT daily chartOn the downside, initial support emerges at the 50-day EMA near $64,673, followed by the former descending trendline barrier turned support around $63,514. On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the Parabolic SAR at $65,404, with further hurdles at the 100-day EMA around $67,043.20 and then the 200-day EMA near $72,505, levels that would need to be decisively cleared to strengthen the bullish continuation narrative.
“Bitcoin continues to trade roughly 50% below its all-time high reached in October, highlighting that the market still requires new catalysts to establish a stronger bullish trend,” Massabni added.
Altcoins technical outlook: Ethereum rebounds as XRP weakensEthereum trades at $1,913, holding above the 50-day EMA at $1,856 and the broken rising trendline support near $1,859, which together underpin a mildly constructive near-term tone. Still, the pair remains capped beneath the 100-day EMA at $1,925 and the 200-day EMA at $2,134, keeping the broader recovery in check until these levels are reclaimed.
The RSI around 56 suggests moderate bullish momentum, while the MACD still prints a negative histogram, hinting that upside pressure is improving but not yet dominant.
ETH/USDT daily chartImmediate support lies at the $1,913 area as a short-term pivot, followed by the former trendline break level at $1,859 and then the 50-day EMA at $1,856, where buyers are likely to defend the broader uptrend structure. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day EMA at $1,925. A sustained move above this barrier would open the way toward the more significant 200-day EMA at $2,134, beyond which the medium-term bullish case would be reinforced.
XRP, on the other hand, maintains a bearish near-term bias as the spot price holds beneath the 50-day EMA at about $1.11, the 100-day EMA near $1.20, and the 200-day EMA around $1.39, keeping the broader recovery capped. Bollinger Bands show price trading below the midline at roughly $1.09, while the RSI near 40 and a negative MACD reading hint at subdued momentum consistent with continued downside pressure.
XRP/USDT daily chartOn the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger Band midline around $1.09, with the 50-day EMA at $1.11 reinforcing a nearby supply zone before stronger caps align at the 100-day EMA near $1.20 and the 200-day EMA around $1.39. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at approximately $1.04 acts as immediate support. A clear break under this level would open the door to further weakness as sellers retain control below the stacked daily EMAs.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
Trust in crypto exchanges has been a work in progress since late 2022, when FTX’s collapse taught everyone that “your funds are safe” can mean very different things. Binance’s latest Proof of Reserves report, based on a snapshot taken August 1, offers its answer to that lesson: on-chain wallets holding more than the platform owes users, across every major asset it tracks.
The numbers are straightforward. Bitcoin is backed at 100.25%, Ethereum matches that figure exactly, and the stablecoin picture is even more comfortable, with USDT at 103.62%, USDC at 107.64%, and USD1 at 112.80%.
What the numbers actually say The snapshot was taken at August 1, 2026, at 00:00:00 UTC, pegged to Bitcoin block height 962079. That level of specificity matters. It makes the data point-in-time verifiable rather than a vague general claim.
On the Bitcoin side, Binance’s net user account balances stood at 656,644.187 BTC, while on-chain wallets held 658,293.119 BTC. In English: the exchange keeps slightly more Bitcoin on-chain than users are collectively owed, which is exactly the point of the exercise.
Ethereum net balances came in at approximately 3.98 million ETH, also covered at 100.25%. The USDT position is the largest in dollar terms, with net holdings valued at roughly $32.9 billion, backed at 103.62%.
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SOL sits at exactly 100.00%, which is the minimum acceptable threshold. It passes, but there is no cushion there worth celebrating.
The methodology behind these figures is worth understanding. Binance uses two overlapping verification tools: Merkle tree proofs and zk-SNARKs, a form of zero-knowledge cryptography. The Merkle tree approach lets any individual user verify their own balance is included in the total. The zk-SNARK layer proves the aggregate math is correct without exposing anyone’s private account data.
How Binance got here Binance started publishing Proof of Reserves in late 2022, directly in response to FTX. The early versions relied on third-party audits, which had their own limitations, including auditor liability concerns that led some firms to quietly walk away from crypto attestations during that period.
The shift to a self-verified zk-SNARKs system was a technical upgrade, not a retreat from accountability. Zero-knowledge proofs, when implemented correctly, are mathematically stronger than a traditional audit because they do not rely on trusting the auditor’s methodology or independence.
The BTC holdings figure tells a growth story as well. Net balances on the platform stood at around 591,000 BTC in early 2025. The jump to 656,644 BTC by August 2026 represents a meaningful increase in user deposits.
What investors should watch The $32.9 billion USDT position is significant. Tether remains the dominant stablecoin for crypto trading pairs, and a 103.62% backing ratio at that scale means Binance is holding reserves in excess of what users could theoretically withdraw all at once.
USDC’s 107.64% backing and USD1’s 112.80% ratio follow the same logic. Higher overcollateralization in stablecoins reduces the risk of a run scenario where user withdrawals outpace available reserves.
The growth in BTC holdings from 591,000 to 656,644 between early 2025 and August 2026 is the kind of concrete, time-stamped data point that appears in custody assessments and counterparty risk reviews.
The one area worth watching going forward is the SOL position sitting precisely at 100.00%. A collateralization ratio at the floor with no buffer means any increase in net user balances, even a small one, would theoretically put it below par before the next rebalancing.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
DeepSeek, Tencent and others receive strategic placement from Unitree Robotics.
Unitree Technology has disclosed its strategic placement list. Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research Co., Ltd. (DeepSeek) and Shanghai Qishan Investment Co., Ltd., a Tencent subsidiary, were selected as "large enterprises or their affiliates that have strategic cooperation relationships or long-term cooperation prospects with the issuer's business". The batch of strategic placement investors also includes China National Petroleum Corporation Kunlun Capital Co., Ltd., China Southern Power Grid Industrial and Financial Holding Group Co., Ltd., and other companies.
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More than 4 billion shares of SpaceX may enter circulation within the year, posing potential selling pressure on its stock price in the short term.
SpaceX faces lock-up expirations for up to 911.5 million shares today, equivalent to over 140% of its current public float, which could heighten short-term stock price volatility. Following the company’s prior earnings release, its stock dropped 12% despite revenue exceeding forecasts and its AI business unexpectedly posting a profit. Additional share unlocks are scheduled for August 12 and 20 days later. By the end of this year, more than 4 billion shares are projected to become tradable, potentially exerting sustained selling pressure on the stock, though market focus remains on the company’s long-term fundamentals.
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Serenity: Unitree Robotics' IPO May Boost Robotics Sector Valuation, Supply Chain Firms Like Leader Harmonic Drive to Benefit
Serenity noted in a report that Unitree Robotics’ implied market cap in the derivatives market stands at roughly $29.3 billion. Citing the performance of pre-IPO perpetual contracts for Cerebras and SpaceX, Serenity added that their related prices were relatively close to the respective listing opening prices. Based on Unitree’s projected IPO target valuation of $5.7 billion to $6.2 billion this month, the current derivatives implied valuation is about 370% to 414% higher, equivalent to 4.7 to 5.1 times the target. If Unitree can maintain this valuation post-listing, it could drive growth in the robotics sector. It cited robotics supply chain firms including Leaderdrive (Green Harmonic), Harmonic Drive, and Ouster, noting that industry leaders typically boost valuations of other peers in the same sector after listing, while stressing this does not constitute investment advice. Unitree is expected to proceed with its listing later this month, with the subscription period likely on August 10, and final issuance results to be announced on August 14. Agility Robotics may advance its related plans in the fourth quarter.
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Walsh adheres to prudent market guidance, and will consider a September interest rate hike if inflation remains strong.
According to a report by the Financial Times, even after his decision to withhold too many details about interest rate strategy triggered a sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, Federal Reserve Chair Walsh has stuck to his usual concise communication style. People close to Walsh say he has acknowledged making some mistakes in his first 10 weeks leading the world’s most important central bank, including failing to reinforce his core message on price stability and sowing confusion over whether his long-term plans to overhaul the Fed would impact near-term policy decisions. However, they insist these mistakes are not enough to derail Walsh’s reform agenda for the Federal Reserve. Insiders also revealed that if inflation data released in the coming weeks comes in strong and market expectations for higher borrowing costs rise accordingly, Walsh is prepared to raise interest rates at the September policy meeting. Insiders added that while the Fed chair has raised the possibility of shrinking the central bank’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet to tighten monetary policy, interest rates remain the primary tool for now, and will be used at upcoming meetings if needed.
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Trader gains $956K on $CASHCAT after $791K investment, another spent $519 ETH for 9.96M $CASHCAT
The trader who previously spent $791K to buy 13.14M $CASHCAT($1.75M now) is now up $956K. Another trader also spent $519 $ETH($985K) to buy 9.96M $CASHCAT 12 hours ago.
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Pre-market US stocks in the storage, optical communications, and semiconductor sectors are all down, with Western Digital falling over 16% and SanDisk dropping more than 11%.
According to market data from BIT (bit.com), U.S. stocks were in pre-market trading on Thursday, with storage stocks, optical communications, and semiconductor stocks all declining. The storage sector led losses: Western Digital (WDC) fell 16.06%, SanDisk (SNDK) dropped 11.09%, SK Hynix (SKHY) decreased 7.01%, Micron Technology fell 5.79%, and Seagate Technology (STX) declined 5.57%. Most semiconductor stocks trended lower: Marvell Technology (MRVL) fell 2.14%, Intel (INTC) dropped 1.89%, and Arm (ARM) decreased 1.85%. All optical communication concept stocks saw declines: Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) fell 1.66%, Credo (CRDO) dropped 1.45%, and Astera Labs (ALAB) decreased 1.37%.
Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a historical accumulation zone. Glassnode data shows 41 of 45 on-chain indicators sitting in the bottom two quintiles of their cycle ranges.
CryptoQuant’s Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio tells the same story from a different angle. However, both data sources stop short of calling a confirmed bottom for the current bear market.
41 of 45 On-Chain Indicators Point to Capitulation TerritoryGlassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Composite compresses 45 on-chain indicators into a single score from 0 to 100. The gauge currently reads 19.9, deep in the cold zone reserved for capitulation phases. It last visited this area in late 2022, after the FTX collapse.
Bitcoin Cycle Composite time series at 19.9, the coldest reading since late 2022 / Source: XThe move happened fast. According to pseudonymous analyst n3ocortex, who published the dataset on X, the composite median stood near 33 three months ago. Today, it has slipped to roughly 20, and 41 of 45 indicators sit in the bottom two quintiles.
Bitcoin Cycle Board Snapshot showing 41 of 45 on-chain indicators in the bottom two quintiles / Source: XValuation and pricing models show the deepest readings. All figures reflect approximate percentile ranks within each metric’s history.
IndicatorPercentile rank (approx.)Price / Power Law4thCoinbase Premium 7d6thDormancy Flow8thReserve Risk8thMVRV Median8thComposite (median)20thStill, the analyst avoids calling this the definitive floor.
“Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor.”
A few gauges even flash red, including Liveliness and the share of supply last active over one year ago. However, the analyst argues that custody rotation structurally inflates these coin age metrics, which weakens their euphoria signal.
Sell-Side Risk Ratio Falls to the 3rd Percentile of the CycleCryptoQuant data adds independent confirmation. The platform’s Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio has dropped to 0.031, the 3rd percentile of the current halving cycle. In simple terms, the indicator is lower than on 97% of days since April 2024.
Moreover, this is no single-day anomaly. The ratio has stayed below the 25th percentile since late January, while its two-month average has held under 5%. CryptoQuant describes this as a prolonged phase of market compression and repricing.
Bitcoin Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio percentile rank at cycle lows / Source: CryptoQuantThe report placed Bitcoin near $62,000, almost 50% below its October 2025 peak. The price has since recovered to around $64,587, up 0.9% in the past 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto market data.
Accumulation Zone Does Not Mean the Bottom Is InHistorically, similar readings appeared only during the late stages of bear markets. Therefore, they improve the long-term risk-reward profile rather than guarantee an imminent reversal.
In the 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 cycles, the ratio hugged its lower boundary for months. Prices kept moving inside wide ranges and periodically set new lows during those stretches.
The same caution applies to the Glassnode board. Past cycle floors arrived only when nearly every indicator turned deep blue at once. The current board remains one step short of that unanimous capitulation signal.
Other models cluster around similar conclusions. BeInCrypto’s earlier analysis of Bitcoin’s final bear leg pointed to a potential bottom near $44,000. Benjamin Cowen’s latest memo targets the same area in Q4 2026. Meanwhile, large wallets scooped up 40,100 BTC in nine days in late July, suggesting some big players are positioning early.
For now, the data support patient accumulation rather than aggressive bottom calls. Either the remaining indicators join the capitulation cluster and confirm a floor, or another leg down resets the clock.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $64,000 at press time on Thursday, testing the bullish breakout of its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $64,660. Mild recovery in BTC lifts altcoins, with Pi Network (PI) and Uniswap (UNI) emerging as top performers over the last 24 hours. The technical outlook for the altcoins is bullish, with PI testing the bullish breakout of the falling channel pattern, while UNI extends gains above its 200-day EMA at $3.8969.
Technical outlook: Will BTC price rise above $65,000?Bitcoin maintains a mildly bullish near-term bias as it tests the 50-day EMA at $64,660 and is well under the 200-day EMA at $73,399. Although BTC remains capped below the short-term EMA, a potential breakout could extend the rally toward the immediate resistance at the June 3 high of $67,516.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 53 rises above the midline with a near-term recovery, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is on the verge of crossing above its signal line, which together hint at fading downside momentum.
BTC/USDT daily price chart.Looking down, the key support for BTC aligns with the $60,000 psychological threshold, reinforced by the swing low near $58,115.
Technical outlook: Could PI and UNI extend gains?Pi Network shows a mild near-term bullish bias as it tests the bullish breakout of the overhead descending trendline near $0.0900. At the time of writing, PI trades above $0.0900 on Thursday, sustaining the 10% rebound gains from the previous day.
The RSI has recovered toward 55, indicating reduced downside pressure, while the MACD rises with its signal line, hinting that recent buying pressure is attempting to challenge the prevailing downtrend.
Looking up, the initial resistance is seen at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level of the downswing from the $0.1998 high to the $0.1183 low, at $0.0961, followed by the Fibonacci anchor at $0.1183.
PI/USD daily price chart.On the downside, a sustained close below $0.0900 would nullify the breakout odds, potentially leading to a decline toward the $0.0700 support level.
Uniswap trades above $4.00 at press time on Thursday, holding a constructive bullish bias as price sits above both the 50-day EMA at $3.6067 and the 200-day EMA at $3.8969. This positioning suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, with bulls eyeing February 11 high at $4.5880, which capped Friday's gains. A decisive close above this level could extend the rally toward the December 21 high near $6.5000.
The MACD crosses below its signal line while RSI holds at 57, hinting at a neutral-to-positive tone rather than signaling overbought conditions.
UNI/USDT daily price chart.On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-day EMA near $3.8969, with stronger downside protection emerging at the 50-day EMA around $3.6067.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GSR increased Bitcoin’s allocation in its Core3 model portfolio on Aug. 5 as trading activity slowed and volatility eased across Bitcoin, Ether and Solana.
Summary
Solana fell 40.21% year to date, the steepest decline among GSR’s three tracked assets overall. GSR allocated 44.1% to Ether, 36.5% to Solana and 19.3% to Bitcoin in its model. Core3 lost 57.78% yearly, trailing the equally weighted basket by 7.94 percentage points before costs. Ether led 30 day returns at 5.16%, while Solana dropped 9.64% during the same period. GSR increased Bitcoin exposure as trading activity weakened and volatility eased across the three assets. The latest Core3 model portfolio assigned 44.1% to Ether, 36.5% to Solana and 19.3% to Bitcoin. The weights total 99.9% because GSR rounds each allocation.
Despite Bitcoin receiving the smallest weight, it remained the strongest of the three assets in 2026. BTC had lost 24.82% year to date. Ether was down 35.49%, while Solana recorded the deepest decline at 40.21%.
Over one year, Bitcoin fell 47.08%, compared with losses of 44.73% for Ether and 54.89% for Solana. The figures show broad weakness across the three assets rather than a decline isolated to one blockchain.
GSR Core3 model shifts toward Bitcoin GSR said market conditions remained subdued during the latest week. Price changes were modest, while trading activity and volatility declined. The firm interpreted those conditions as a quieter market without a strong directional trend.
As a result, the model raised its Bitcoin allocation and cut its Ether position. GSR attributed the change to proprietary signals rather than recent price performance alone.
The shift is clearer when compared with GSR’s July 15 allocation. At that point, the model held 53.1% in Ether, 37.6% in Solana and only 9.2% in Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s weight therefore rose 10.1 percentage points by Aug. 5, while Ether’s fell nine points.
Ether still delivered the strongest return over the most recent 30 days, gaining 5.16%. Bitcoin rose 1.26%, while Solana lost 9.64%. However, GSR said the lower Ether weighting indicated “relatively stronger forward looking opportunities elsewhere.”
That assessment is a model based view, not a confirmed prediction of future returns. GSR said the portfolio uses quantitative signals that can change as prices, volume and volatility move.
Solana leads losses despite falling volatility Solana’s 40.21% year to date decline was the largest among the Core3 assets. It also lost 54.89% over one year, compared with the portfolio’s 57.78% decline.
However, SOL produced the best weekly result, rising 1.86%. Bitcoin gained 1.19%, while Ether fell 0.54%. The mixed figures support GSR’s description of a market with limited short term direction.
Solana’s measured volatility also eased sharply. Its 30 day volatility stood at 37.39%, below Ether’s 41.69%, although still above Bitcoin’s 29.89%. Solana’s 60 day reading remained higher at 54.92%, showing that its calmer recent trading followed a more unstable period.
Solana previously approached support near $60 after whale selling, weaker decentralized finance activity and market liquidations weighed on the asset. The network’s planned upgrades continued to support its longer term development case, but they had not prevented sharp token losses.
The broader weakness also extended beyond SOL. As previously reported, the crypto market excluding Bitcoin and Ether lost almost 23% during the first half of 2026. The decline occurred even as some blockchain networks continued recording strong usage.
Core3 trails a basket weighted equally The Core3 portfolio lost 37.86% year to date and 57.78% over one year. An alternative portfolio allocating equal amounts to Bitcoin, Ether and Solana declined 33.99% and 49.84% over the same periods.
Core3 therefore trailed the equally weighted basket by 3.87 percentage points in 2026 and 7.94 points over one year. Its larger exposure to Ether and Solana increased losses when those assets fell more sharply than Bitcoin.
The result also shows the difference between a changing allocation model and a passive basket. The model attempts to adjust exposure based on GSR’s signals. An equally weighted portfolio simply maintains broadly similar exposure to all three assets.
Earlier allocations show that those signals can change rapidly. On July 8, GSR held 46.7% in Ether, 40.1% in Solana and 13.1% in Bitcoin after Ether led weekly performance and volatility declined.
Ether has struggled against Bitcoin during 2026, with the ETH to BTC ratio reaching multiyear lows. Institutional demand concentrated in Bitcoin, competition from Solana and questions over Ether’s value capture have weighed on its relative performance.
What traders will watch next GSR’s next weekly allocation will show whether the model continues moving toward Bitcoin or reverses the shift. Trading volume, relative momentum and changes in volatility will remain central to that decision.
The model’s 30 day volatility stood at 38%, compared with 35.87% for the equally weighted basket. Its 60 day volatility was slightly lower than the comparison portfolio, at 42.64% versus 43.69%.
Investors should also distinguish the model results from returns available through a live investment strategy. GSR said its figures are hypothetical, exclude transaction and management fees and do not include staking rewards.
The firm also said the material is intended for professional investors and does not constitute investment advice. GSR may trade the assets for its own account, take positions that differ from its published commentary and sponsor products using related methods.
Those disclosures matter because the portfolio’s allocations are not neutral market forecasts. They reflect a proprietary framework whose positions and past returns may not translate into future performance.
TLDR: GSR raised Bitcoin allocation while lowering Ether exposure as crypto trading activity continued slowing this week. Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana have dropped 24.82%, 35.49%, and 40.21% respectively during 2026. GSR’s Core3 model portfolio fell 57.78% over one year, trailing the equal-weight basket’s performance. Bitcoin faces key resistance near $67,000 while $60,000 remains the major higher timeframe support level. Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana have posted sharp declines in 2026 as digital asset markets continue to struggle with weaker trading activity. GSR has adjusted its Core3 model portfolio by increasing Bitcoin exposure while reducing its Ether allocation.
The move comes after another quiet week marked by lower volatility across major cryptocurrencies. Portfolio changes also arrived as Bitcoin approached a technical level that traders continue to monitor closely.
GSR Shifts Bitcoin Allocation as Crypto Market Activity Slows GSR’s latest weekly market commentary showed notable allocation changes within its Core3 model portfolio. The portfolio tracks Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana using the firm’s quantitative investment signals.
As of August 5, Bitcoin represented 19.3% of the allocation. Ether held the largest share at 44.1%, while Solana accounted for 36.5%.
Year-to-date performance remained negative across all three assets. Bitcoin had fallen 24.82%, Ether declined 35.49%, and Solana dropped 40.21%.
GSR: Bitcoin, Ether and Solana Tumble in 2026, With SOL Down Over 40%
GSR’s Core3 model portfolio allocated 44.1% to ETH, 36.5% to SOL and 19.3% to BTC as of August 5. Bitcoin, Ether and Solana were down 24.82%, 35.49% and 40.21% year to date, respectively. The model portfolio… pic.twitter.com/uzZIUAMEnB
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 6, 2026
According to GSR, the model portfolio lost 57.78% over the past year. That result underperformed an equal-weight basket, which declined 49.84% during the same period.
The firm said market conditions remained subdued throughout the previous week. Price movements stayed limited as trading activity eased and volatility continued to decline.
GSR responded by increasing its Bitcoin allocation while trimming exposure to Ether. The company said its proprietary alpha signals supported the adjustment despite limited short-term price differences.
The report also noted that Ether still led 30-day performance. However, the updated allocation reflected stronger forward-looking signals for other assets within the model.
Meanwhile, Solana retained a meaningful portfolio weighting. GSR linked that position to relatively stable price action and a sharp drop in the token’s volatility.
Bitcoin Price Faces Key Resistance as Bulls Target Market Structure Shift Bitcoin also remained in focus after traders highlighted an important technical level. Market participants continue watching whether the asset can recover recent highs.
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed to the $67,000 region as a major resistance level. He noted that both June and July peaked around that price.
According to the trader, a move above $67,000 would establish a higher daily high. That would also shift Bitcoin into a more bullish daily market structure.
He added that the $60,000 level remains the major support on the higher timeframe. Traders continue monitoring that area if Bitcoin fails to reclaim higher prices.
$BTC $67K was the June & July high. Breaking that and you put in a higher high and flip this into a bullish market structure on the daily timeframe.
That is the goal for the bulls. Below, obviously the high timeframe range low at $60K is the big support to watch. pic.twitter.com/tM4d5JE5Cs
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) August 5, 2026
The technical outlook arrived alongside GSR’s portfolio update as digital asset markets traded in a quieter environment. Lower volatility and softer trading volumes have remained consistent themes across recent sessions.
Bitcoin’s increased allocation within GSR’s model portfolio reflects those changing conditions. At the same time, the firm’s latest data showed that all three Core3 assets continue trading well below their levels at the start of 2026.
Crypto market maker GSR has released the latest performance update for its Crypto Core3 model portfolio, showing that even professionally managed crypto portfolios have struggled in 2026. Over the past year, the portfolio returned -57.78%, underperforming an equal-weight portfolio of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, which fell 49.84% during the same period.
Latest Portfolio AllocationAs of August 5, GSR’s Core3 portfolio consists of:
Ethereum: 44.1%Solana: 36.5%Bitcoin: 19.3%The latest rebalance increased Bitcoin exposure while reducing Ethereum allocation as trading activity slowed and market volatility eased.
Bitcoin Remains the Strongest PerformerBitcoin has been the strongest performer among the three assets this year. It is down 24.82% year-to-date and 47.08% over the past year.
Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin gained 1.26%. Its 30-day volatility stood at 29.89%, the lowest among the three assets.
Ethereum Still Holds the Largest WeightDespite the rebalance, Ethereum remains the portfolio’s largest holding at 44.1%.
ETH is down 35.49% year-to-date and 44.73% over the past year. However, it posted the strongest monthly gain, rising 5.16% over the last 30 days. Its 30-day volatility is 41.69%.
Solana Holds a Steady AllocationMidweek #SOLANA Lookout for august:
Solana is stuck below $75. After hitting a July high of $83, it’s now trading around $73, and while retail traders are frustrated and selling, three major developments are unfolding that most people are missing.cryptonews+2
Three things…
— 𝕀 𝔸𝕄 𝔻𝔼𝔾𝔼ℕ 𝕃𝔸𝔹𝕊 (@IamDegenLabs) August 5, 2026 Solana accounts for 36.5% of the portfolio.
SOL has posted the largest decline among the three assets, falling 40.21% year-to-date and 54.89% over the past year. It also dropped 9.64% over the last 30 days.
GSR said Solana’s lower volatility and stable price movement supported its relatively large allocation in the portfolio.
Outside GSR’s report, market analyst IamDegenLabs said several developments could improve Solana’s outlook in the coming weeks.
The analyst pointed to governance proposals that aim to increase token burns and reduce inflation, BlackRock’s filing to launch tokenized fund shares on Solana, more than 1 billion weekly network transactions, and continued ETF inflows.
According to the analyst, $75 is the key resistance level. A move above it could push SOL toward $78-$80, while a drop below $70.70 could send the price to the $66-$68 range.
GSR Adjusts to a Slower MarketAccording to GSR, crypto markets remained subdued over the past week, with lower trading volumes, smaller price swings, and easing volatility.
The firm responded by adopting a more balanced allocation while modestly increasing its Bitcoin exposure.
The latest update shows Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum and Solana during the current market cycle. However, all three assets remain well below their levels from a year ago, highlighting the broader downturn across the crypto market.
Story Ends Here
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Is Lee Sounding an Alarm for Bitcoin?During an interview with CNBC, Lee acknowledged the looming threat, popularly known as “Q-Day”, when quantum computers become powerful enough to break standard internet encryption.
Lee noted that networks such as Ethereum and Solana are developing quantum resistance, so it’s “probably not gonna be a problem” for them.
“But for bitcoin they haven’t come to a consensus on how to prevent Q-Day,” the Fundstrat co-founder said.
Potential Threat to BitcoinFor Bitcoin, quantum computing poses a theoretical risk: private keys could be derived from exposed public keys in 9 minutes, opening a pathway for unauthorized access to funds.
Jameson Lopp, co-founder and chief security officer at self-custody platform firm Casa, has estimated a “greater than 50% chance” that it will take at least another decade before a quantum computer emerges that could pose a threat to Bitcoin.
Not an Existential Risk, Say Crypto FiguresCoinbase, in fact, announced the formation of an advisory board earlier this year to assess the implications of quantum computing and prepare for “threats.”
A suggested that a protocol update to protect Bitcoin from quantum computing threats could require nearly 305 days of downtime if only 25% of the bandwidth is allowed for the process.
That said, not everybody is sweating over the so-called Q-day. International Business Machines Corp (NYSE:IBM) CEO Arvind Krishna said quantum computing could start having a “measurable impact” on the company’s revenue and profit by 2028 or 2029.
Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $64,588.02, up 0.61% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo: Quality Stock Arts on Shutterstock.com
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Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana have seen significant declines in 2026, with digital asset trading activity slowing across major markets. GSR, a global crypto trading and market-making firm, responded by shifting the allocation in its Core3 model portfolio, favoring Bitcoin over Ether amid persistent market weakness.
GSR adjusts portfolio after steep market dropGSR’s Core3 model portfolio, which uses internal quantitative indicators to allocate among Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana, has undergone notable changes as trading activity cooled and volatility dropped. As of August 5, the portfolio held 19.3% in Bitcoin, 44.1% in Ether, and 36.5% in Solana.
Performance in 2026 has remained negative for all three assets. Bitcoin fell 24.82% year-to-date, Ether dropped 35.49%, and Solana recorded the steepest loss at 40.21%.
AssetYTD Change (2026)Portfolio Allocation (Aug 5, 2026)Bitcoin-24.82%19.3%Ether-35.49%44.1%Solana-40.21%36.5%GSR reported that its Core3 portfolio lost 57.78% over the past year, underperforming an equally weighted basket of the same assets, which declined 49.84% in the same period. The company attributed the move to relatively limited price swings and subdued market conditions, resulting in lower volatility and softer trading volumes.
Amid these shifts, GSR increased exposure to Bitcoin while reducing allocation to Ether. The firm cited its proprietary alpha signals as the basis for the adjustment, even as the short-term outlook for prices showed only minor differences.
Mini dictionary: GSR is a leading algorithmic trading and market-making company specializing in digital assets, providing quantitative investment products and liquidity solutions to institutional clients.
Despite a lower weighting, Ether continued to outperform other portfolio constituents in 30-day performance. However, the updated allocation reflected what GSR described as stronger forward-looking signals for Bitcoin and Solana.
Solana maintained a substantial presence in the portfolio, according to GSR, who pointed to resilience in its price action and a marked drop in the token’s volatility.
GSR observed, “Year-to-date, Bitcoin, Ether and Solana were down 24.82%, 35.49% and 40.21%, respectively, while our Core3 model portfolio allocation as of August 5 reflected 44.1% in ETH, 36.5% in SOL and 19.3% in BTC.”
Bitcoin targets resistance amid subdued tradingMarket attention has centered on Bitcoin as traders monitor whether it can reclaim recent highs in a period marked by low volatility. Technical analysts have identified $67,000 as a major resistance level after Bitcoin reached peaks near that mark in both June and July.
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades emphasized the significance of breaking above $67,000, noting that doing so would mark a higher daily high and lead to a more constructive market structure. He also described $60,000 as the main higher timeframe support zone in case downside pressure resumes.
One technical analyst stated, “Flipping $67K would put Bitcoin into a bullish market structure on the daily timeframe, while the $60K area remains a critical support level.”
The subdued environment continues to define digital asset markets, keeping volatility and trading volumes muted. GSR’s move to raise its Bitcoin allocation matches these conditions as all three Core3 assets continue to trade far below their levels from the start of the year.
The firm’s ongoing portfolio adjustments underscore the cautious sentiment prevailing in cryptocurrency markets as investors await signs of renewed momentum.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Grayscale has completed CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF’s (GDLC) quarterly rebalancing, increasing XRP, Solana (SOL), and Bitcoin (BTC) allocations. The crypto asset manager also announced weightings of Ethereum (ETH) and BNB in the large-cap digital assets fund.
XRP, Solana & Bitcoin Holdings to Rise in Grayscale’s GDLC ETF Grayscale Investments Sponsors finished its quarterly portfolio review and rebalanced the GDLC ETF in line with the CoinDesk 5 Index Methodology. The index provider determined that Bitcoin, Ethereum (Ether), XRP, Solana (SOL), and BNB continued to meet the inclusion criteria.
As a result, Grayscale has adjusted the fund’s portfolio by purchasing and selling some existing fund components in line with their weightings. Thus, no new tokens were added to or removed from the GLDC ETF during rebalancing.
The crypto components’ weighting in the fund is adjusted to 75.54% Bitcoin, 13.30% Ethereum, 4.64% BNB, 3.98% XRP, and 2.54% SOL. Each share represented almost 0.0003 Bitcoin, 0.0021 Ether, 0.0023 BNB, 1.0633 XRP, and 0.0099 SOL.
Notably, the earlier allocations were 75.53% BTC, 13.43% ETH, 4.64% BNB, 3.88% XRP, and 2.52% SOL. The latest update shows a slight increase in XRP, Solana, and Bitcoin weightings, whereas a small cut in Ethereum. Meanwhile, BNB’s allocation remains stable at 4.64% in the Grayscale GDLC ETF.
Meanwhile, Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP) sold over $180 million worth of Ripple’s XRP. It also reported massive depreciation in net asset value due to XRP price downturn.
Price Action Mixed amid Rising Uncertainty Bitcoin price holds advance towards $65K amid pause in US-Iran war for diplomatic deal between the US, Iran and Oman. BTC currently trades at $64,722, up almost 1 % over the past 24 hours, but trading volume remains low due to broader crypto market uncertainty.
Meanwhile, XRP price dropped more than 2% in the past 24 hours as Senate Majority Leader John Thune didn’t file cloture on the Clarity Act. XRP is currently trading at $1.05, with a 24-hour low and high of $1.04 and $1.07, respectively.
However, trading volume has increased by 33% over the last 24 hours as traders await Clarity Act’s progress in the Senate. Analyst Ali Martinez predicted a fall to $0.80 if XRP price fails to hold above $1.
Check out the best crypto copy trading platforms to closely track the moves of experienced traders amid crypto market uncertainty.
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Leading cryptocurrencies inched higher on Wednesday amid a renewed Senate push to pass the CLARITY Act before the recess.
‘Extreme Fear’ ReturnsBitcoin staged a late-afternoon rally but fell short of the $65,000 mark as trading activity stayed subdued. Ethereum posted a stronger advance, climbing to an intraday high of $1,922, while XRP and Dogecoin traded lower.
Drama over the CLARITY Act persists, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) floating a last-minute vote to pass the cryptocurrency legislation in the Senate.
Over $250 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, with $169 million in bearish short positions erased, according to Coinglass data.
Bitcoin’s open interest rose 1.17% over the last 24 hours. Smart money sentiment, which refers to the collective outlook and capital allocation of institutional investors, turned "extremely bearish." Binance top traders, i.e., top 20% users with the highest margin balance, remained net long on Bitcoin, but the long exposure has fallen significantly this week.
"Extreme Fear" sentiment returned to the market, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
Top Gainers (24 Hours)
The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.2 trillion, following a dip of 0.79% over the last 24 hours.
Dow Extends Winning RallyThe Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 263.24 points, or 0.49%, to hit a record close of 54,349.12. The S&P 500 retreated 0.17% to close at 7,723.55, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite pulled back 0.83% to end at 26,363.44.
Historical Bottom Signal EmergesAli Martinez, a widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader, identified a bullish divergence between Bitcoin’s price and net capital flows.
“The last bullish divergence between the BTC price and Net Capital Flows marked the cycle bottom,” Martinez stated. “The same signal is back.”
The analyst noted that the last such signal preceded the rally from $15,000 to $126,000, representing a 740% upside.
Michaël van de Poppe, another popular cryptocurrency commentator on X, said that if the CLARITY Act passes this week, it would end the market’s wait-and-see stance and trigger a bull rally for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Photo: KateStock / Shutterstock
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Nearly 5,000 Findings in Under 28 HoursA volunteer security initiative known as the Bitcoin Red Team has completed one of the most sweeping audits the Bitcoin ecosystem has seen. Led by AnchorWatch CEO Rob Hamilton (@Rob1Ham) and Bitchat developer Calle (@callebtc), the group uncovered 4,962 security issues across 390 open-source projects during a 27.5-hour sprint on August 4 and 5, 2026. Of those findings, 85 were classified as critical and 635 as high-severity, averaging 166 findings per hour.
The team has grown to 16 globally distributed researchers working around the clock. While AI tools powered much of the throughput, the researchers noted that much of the work still involves manually guiding the AI, even as their automated harnesses continue to improve. Most of the critical reports filed so far were quickly verified by project owners, confirming the team is identifying real vulnerabilities.
Sparked by the Coldcard RNG ExploitThe audit was a direct response to a serious security breach affecting Coldcard hardware wallets. A vulnerability introduced in Coldcard firmware 4.0.0 in March 2021 caused devices to skip their hardware randomness generator and fall back to predictable software-based key generation seeded by non-secret chip data. An attacker drained 1,196 Bitcoin addresses in 41 minutes on July 30, taking 1,082.65 BTC worth about $70.2 million at the time. Total losses have since climbed to more than $130 million, according to blockchain-monitoring firms.
Canada-based Coinkite, whose affected Coldcard wallets were drained, warned that the vulnerability "is a warning for every company building Bitcoin hardware and software, not only us." That warning appears to have galvanized the broader developer community into action.
Funding for the Red Team effort came from OpenSats (@OpenSats), a nonprofit that supports open-source Bitcoin development, which contributed nearly $40,000 to cover AI compute costs. The team is now planning to open-source the tools it built during the sprint, enabling other Bitcoin companies to run ongoing audits of their own codebases. The goal is to let projects scan their own closed-source code before attackers do.
Bitcoin Magazine: Bitcoin Red Team Finds 85 Critical Flaws Across 390 Open Source Repos | Bleeping Computer: Coldcard Wallet RNG Flaw Likely Linked to $88 Million Bitcoin Theft | TechCrunch: Hackers Steal Over $130M by Exploiting Bug in Offline Hardware Wallets
Most of the Bitcoin stolen through the COLDCARD wallet flaw remains unmoved, but on-chain investigators have detected a separate attacker beginning to route smaller amounts through a mixer.
Summary
The largest known COLDCARD attacker controls 1,159 BTC across seven addresses. None of the 1,159 BTC has entered mixers or been transferred to an identifiable cash-out service. A separate attacker sent 64 BTC toward a mixer, initially mixing about 10 BTC. Investigators have distributed roughly 600 flagged addresses to law enforcement, exchanges, and analytics firms. COLDCARD attacker leaves 1,159 BTC untouched Galaxy Research said the largest known theft connected to the COLDCARD vulnerability involved 1,159 BTC. The funds remain spread across seven addresses associated with the attacker and have not moved since the initial sweep.
The Bitcoin was stolen within 41 minutes, according to the latest on-chain monitoring cited by Bitcoin News. Investigators have not detected transfers from the seven addresses to exchanges, mixers or other services commonly used to obscure stolen funds.
The assets are therefore better described as unmoved rather than technically frozen. Bitcoin transactions cannot be stopped at the protocol level merely because an address has been flagged.
However, the attacker could face difficulties converting the funds into fiat or other assets. Law enforcement agencies, cryptocurrency exchanges and blockchain analytics companies have reportedly flagged about 600 addresses connected with the wider theft.
Any transfer to a compliant exchange could trigger transaction monitoring controls and requests for information about the account receiving the Bitcoin.
Smaller attacker begins mixing stolen Bitcoin Separate on-chain activity suggests another attacker has started attempting to obscure part of the stolen funds.
Analysts tracked 64 BTC entering a transaction flow linked to a mixer. Approximately 10 BTC was initially mixed, while about 54 BTC returned as change. The remaining funds were subsequently divided into outputs of roughly 7 BTC each for further mixing.
UPDATE COLDCARD:
THE THIEF IS NOW MIXING HIS 64 BTC
1. The funds were sent to that address:
bc1pynd6vswmxkghw6k5463xwcj7el7u4tpl2t2pnh0s8llmc2wgzfqsdu7h92
2. It was mixed in that strange transaction:
– 64 BTC input
– and a 54 BTC output… https://t.co/717BUz0gxm pic.twitter.com/GMzSkE3xrA
— Marius Off🔗Chain (@mariusoffchain) August 5, 2026 Mixers combine or restructure transactions to make it harder to connect the original source of cryptocurrency with its eventual destination. However, they do not guarantee that funds will become untraceable.
Analysts said the relatively large and consistently sized outputs make this laundering attempt easier to follow. Investigators can continue monitoring the transactions as the Bitcoin passes through additional addresses.
The activity also appears separate from the seven-address cluster holding 1,159 BTC. Previous reporting found that multiple attackers may have exploited the same wallet weakness, meaning movements from one cluster should not automatically be attributed to every COLDCARD theft.
Galaxy previously tracked 1,596 stolen BTC As previously reported by crypto.news, Galaxy Research confirmed that attackers stole 1,596 BTC from approximately 7,300 addresses across three attack waves. It also identified 14 smaller incidents connected to the same seed-generation flaw.
A suspected fourth wave could raise the total to approximately 2,055 BTC, although Galaxy had not confirmed those additional losses through sufficient victim reports.
The vulnerability resulted from a firmware error that weakened the randomness used to generate wallet seed phrases. Attackers could reproduce possible seeds offline, derive their Bitcoin addresses, and compare them with addresses visible on the blockchain.
They did not need physical access to the devices, their PINs, or the Bitcoin network itself. The underlying Bitcoin protocol was not compromised.
Coinkite has released corrected firmware, but an update cannot secure a seed phrase generated using a vulnerable version. Affected users must create an entirely new seed and transfer their Bitcoin to addresses derived from it.
The Coldcard hack is especially damaging to Canadian bitcoiners. Our analysis of attackers and victims finds that BTC holders in Canada are bearing 25% of attributable losses.
With estimates ranging as high as $110M, according to Galaxy Research’s dataset, we analyzed the… pic.twitter.com/AyxfHCcOrY
— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 4, 2026 US investigators monitor flagged addresses Galaxy previously said it shared confirmed attacker and victim addresses with US law enforcement agencies, exchanges and cyber-investigation groups. The expanding address list could help authorities identify stolen funds when attackers attempt to use regulated services.
Still, recovering the Bitcoin remains uncertain. An attacker may move funds through several addresses, mixers, decentralized platforms or services outside US jurisdiction before attempting to convert them.
The latest mixer activity gives investigators a new transaction trail to follow, while the 1,159 BTC held by the largest known attacker remains exposed to continuous public monitoring.
The United States government is sitting on 328,372 BTC, worth approximately $25 billion, making it the single largest sovereign holder of Bitcoin on the planet. Not bad for a collection that was never actually purchased.
Every last satoshi in that reserve came from criminal and civil asset forfeitures, including seizures tied to the Silk Road marketplace and the Bitfinex hack. The government essentially stumbled into becoming a Bitcoin whale through law enforcement, then decided to keep the coins instead of auctioning them off like it used to.
From evidence locker to strategic asset The pivot happened on March 6, 2025, when President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14233, formally establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The order did two important things: it consolidated all federally seized Bitcoin under a single framework, and it explicitly prohibited the sale of any coins in the reserve.
The Treasury Department now manages the reserve alongside a separate entity called the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, which handles other forfeited tokens that aren’t Bitcoin. The distinction matters because the executive order treats Bitcoin differently from every other digital asset, essentially giving it a privileged tier in the government’s balance sheet.
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Congress wants to go bigger The executive order was just the opening move. Two pieces of legislation are working their way through Congress with the goal of making the reserve permanent and potentially expanding it dramatically.
The BITCOIN Act and the American Reserve Modernization Act, or ARMA, are both pending. These bills aim to codify the reserve’s existence into law, meaning a future president couldn’t simply reverse it with a new executive order. They also explore frameworks for acquiring additional Bitcoin beyond what’s seized through law enforcement.
Some legislative proposals envision the US eventually holding up to 1 million BTC. That would represent nearly 5% of Bitcoin’s hard-capped 21 million supply. As of July 2026, those expanded holding targets remain unresolved due to inter-agency coordination challenges that have slowed progress.
The current 328,372 BTC reserve already accounts for roughly 1.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply cap. And because the executive order prohibits sales, those coins are effectively removed from the liquid market.
What this means for investors Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins is its defining feature. When a sovereign government locks away 1.5% of that supply with no intention of selling, it creates a structural reduction in available coins.
The signal to other nations may matter more than the direct supply impact. When the world’s largest economy formally treats Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, it provides cover for other governments to do the same. Several countries have already begun exploring similar frameworks, and the US move gives them a template to follow.
Traders should watch the legislative calendar closely. If either the BITCOIN Act or ARMA passes with provisions for active Bitcoin acquisition beyond seizures, it would represent a fundamentally different demand dynamic than anything the market has priced in.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Wall Street investment bank Maxim Group has cut its price target on Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) while keeping its Buy rating. The update is in response to the Bitcoin treasury company’s recent Bitcoin sales, which have been the subject of a wave of scrutiny.
Wall Street Analysts Cut MSTR Stock Price Targets Maxim lowered its goal to $215 from $250. Despite the cut, the new target still implies a potential upside of around 120% from the current price of Strategy stock. Recently, MSTR stock ended Wednesday at $98.37, up $0.72, or 0.74%.
The latest reduction has joined a string of cuts by Wall Street firms. As Bitcoin price expectations have turned gloomy and Strategy has shifted from its “never sell’ stance, analysts have become more cautious.
Moreover, Cantor Fitzgerald cut its price on MSTR to $186. The firm has now lowered its forecast for Bitcoin to hit $111,000 by August 2027. Rather, it is now predicting the BTC price to hit $98,000.
JUST IN: $10 billion investment bank Maxim Group has lowered its price target on #Bitcoin treasury company Strategy $MSTR from $250 to $215 and maintains a buy rating.
That's still a 120% upside. 👀🔥 pic.twitter.com/2C72w5efPx
— BitcoinTreasuries.NET (@BTCtreasuries) August 5, 2026
Further, B. Riley also cut its MSTR stock target from $215 to $155. The brokerage scaled down its Bitcoin forecast from $81,500 to $65,000. Additionally, it noted Strategy had decided to halt further purchases of Bitcoin as one reason for the lower valuation.
The BTC Sale Saga Rattles The Market The MSTR stock downgrades come amid scrutiny about massive Bitcoin transfer associated with Strategy. According to blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, the wallet related to Strategy transferred over 1,030 BTC, which is valued at over $66 million.
According to the data from Arkham Intelligence, there were five transfers totaling approximately $6 million to $21 million. The trades were part of a larger shift of 300 BTC earlier this week.
The new transfers followed Strategy’s latest sale of 1,638 BTC valued at approximately $105 million, leaving it with 842,138 BTC remaining. The company hasn’t clarified if the recent transfers are connected to another sale or if they represent internal custody/transfers of wallets. Investors remain very interested in the activity for the market.
Bitcoin (BTC) remained subdued while stocks edged higher and gold lower, suggesting the market is trapped between weakening institutional demand and growing signs of seller exhaustion, according to a Glassnode report on Wednesday.
The firm stated that Bitcoin's lack of movement stood in sharp contrast to broad gains across global markets, as major equity indexes reached new highs and gold extended its rally.
"Everything has moved except the asset this report is about," Glassnode wrote.
Stocks Climbed And Oil Slid While Bitcoin Did Nothing At All. Source: GlassnodeBitcoin faced little pressure following Coldcard wallet theftThe report examined the market's response to the compromise and theft of funds from several self-custodied Coldcard hardware wallets. While the theft triggered notable on-chain activity, it produced almost no impact on BTC's price.
Following the incident, the movement of BTC that had remained dormant for at least a year rose to 119,000 BTC over three days, around 200 times the amount stolen, as wallet holders moved funds to new addresses out of precaution.
However, only about one-tenth of those BTC reached exchanges, while new wallet creation returned to normal within days. At the same time, the supply held in wallets younger than one month continued rising, indicating users were simply migrating assets into fresh cold storage rather than selling.
"The largest forced movement of old coins this cycle produced no measurable sell pressure and no discernible price response," Glassnode stated.
Bitcoin lacks strong demand push amid sign of market bottomThe report noted that Bitcoin is beginning to display characteristics associated with market bottoms, although unlike previous cycles. These signals are forming through prolonged inactivity instead of panic selling.
Historically, major bottoms have been marked by sharp price declines and volatility spikes. This time, profitability has compressed gradually during months of sideways trading while volatility has remained unusually low.
Glassnode stated that its Seller Exhaustion Constant has fallen to the lowest level of the current cycle and entered the range where previous market bottoms formed. However, the indicator still remains about one-third above the levels reached during earlier bear market lows.
Seller Exhaustion Constant. Source: GlassnodeInstitutional demand remains a missing catalystGlassnode also highlighted continued weakness in institutional demand. The report stated that US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), along with corporate treasury buyers, have collectively failed to provide meaningful support in recent months. June alone recorded roughly 65,800 BTC in net ETF outflows, the largest monthly withdrawal on record, while corporate treasury purchases were insufficient to offset those redemptions.
"Whatever forms the bottom will have to form without the structural bid that defined the last two years, until that bid turns," Glassnode added.
Despite the subdued outlook, the firm noted that options markets remain unusually calm. Upside implied volatility has fallen to its lowest level on record, while downside volatility remains relatively ordinary, indicating traders are paying for neither bullish nor bearish scenarios.
Bitcoin Implied Volatility. Source: GlassnodeWhile deeply compressed markets have historically broken higher, Glassnode stated that Bitcoin's current setup lacks the level of demand that fueled previous recoveries.
Bitcoin is trading at $64,900, up 1% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing.
TLDR: Bitcoin’s net capital flow divergence has returned, echoing the signal seen near the 2022 cycle bottom. A 157-day futures basis drought now ranks as Glassnode’s second-longest period below Treasury yields. Bitcoin trades just above its $63,777 200-week SMA, a level repeatedly linked to past cycle recoveries. Three independent indicators now converge, but none confirms that Bitcoin’s final market bottom is in. Bitcoin is showing several market-bottom indicators that previously appeared near major cycle turning points, according to data shared by Ali Charts and Rand Group. The signals combine weakening net capital flows, unusually subdued futures returns, and Bitcoin’s proximity to its long-term 200-week simple moving average.
Net Capital Flows Recreate a 2022 Divergence Ali Charts highlighted a bullish divergence between Bitcoin’s price and net capital flows, describing it as the same pattern seen near the 2022 cycle bottom. During that earlier period, Bitcoin traded near $15,000 before beginning a sustained advance that eventually reached $126,000, representing an approximately eightfold increase.
Basically, a bullish divergence occurs when price remains weak while an underlying flow indicator improves, showing that selling pressure and capital movement are no longer moving together. Although the current signal does not establish a confirmed bottom by itself.
Instead, it reproduces a relationship that previously appeared as Bitcoin completed its last major bear-market decline. That comparison has gained additional weight from derivatives data, where market activity has remained unusually quiet despite Bitcoin trading far above its 2022 low.
Futures Returns Trail Treasury Yields for 157 Days Adding to the broader market-bottom comparison, Rand Group cited Glassnode data showing a prolonged decline in Bitcoin futures returns. Bitcoin’s three-month annualized futures basis has remained below the two-year United States Treasury yield for 157 consecutive days.
The futures basis measures the annualized premium available when futures contracts trade above Bitcoin’s spot price. Therefore, a lower basis generally reflects weaker demand for leveraged bullish positions.
Source: X
At the same time, Treasury securities offer investors a competing, relatively low-risk return. Consequently, when Bitcoin’s futures basis falls below government bond yields, institutional traders have less financial incentive to allocate capital to crypto futures.
According to Glassnode’s chart, the current 157-day stretch is the second-longest occurrence recorded in the dataset. The only longer period lasted approximately 160 days between August 2022 and January 2023.
Notably, that earlier stretch coincided with Bitcoin’s cycle-low formation after months of declining prices, institutional failures, and widespread deleveraging across the cryptocurrency market.
Rand Group added that investors who exited Bitcoin during that inactive period subsequently missed an approximately eightfold price expansion. Nevertheless, the historical comparison highlights similarities in market positioning rather than predicting an identical price outcome.
The 200-Week Average Defines the Accumulation Zone Alongside the derivatives signal, Ali Charts identified the 200-week simple moving average as Bitcoin’s long-term cycle benchmark. The indicator currently stands at $63,777. Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded near $64,620, placing the asset approximately $843 above the moving average and inside a historically important technical area.
Bitcoin previously tested this benchmark in August 2015, December 2018, March 2020, and throughout the second half of 2022. Those episodes were followed by reported gains of 8,500%, 267%, 1,125%, and 680%, respectively, although each developed under different market conditions.
Given the possibility of further declines, the analyst’s buying plan involves dollar-cost averaging between $58,000 and $40,000. The strategy also recognizes potential downside targets near $54,000 and $40,000.
More importantly, the indicators complement one another as each measures a different aspect of Bitcoin’s market structure. Capital flows track the movement of money, while the futures basis reflects derivatives positioning. At the same time, the moving average measures Bitcoin’s long-term price trend.
Taken together, the data presents three simultaneous developments: an improving flow divergence, compressed derivatives returns, and a test of a decade-long moving-average benchmark.
However, none of these indicators independently confirms that Bitcoin has established its final market bottom. Instead, their convergence places current conditions near measurable levels associated with the previous cycle’s accumulation phase.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Trump says U.S.-Iran deal to be finalized within 48 hours; while U.S.-Iran talks are "progressing very well", Iran has refused to acknowledge this. Houthi militants have claimed another attack on a Saudi oil tanker, with Yemen preparing for full-scale confrontation with Saudi Arabia. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson stated that neither the foreign minister nor the speaker has current plans to visit Pakistan or Qatar. A Gulf state official estimates a 50% probability that the U.S. and Iran will reach a deal before Friday. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. stocks closed Wednesday: the Dow Jones rose 0.49%, S&P 500 fell 0.17%, Nasdaq fell 0.8%. SpaceX (SPCX.O) dropped 13.6%. NVIDIA (NVDA.O) gained 3.4%, SK Hynix (SKHY.O) fell 2%, and AMD (AMD.O) fell 7%. Per Bitget market data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,660, up 0.97% in the past 24 hours.
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