Circle launched cirBTC on June 8, 2026, and the market apparently liked what it saw. The 1:1 Bitcoin-backed token has now crossed the 5,000-token milestone, a number that looks modest until you consider it was sitting at roughly 40 tokens in mid-August.
The product is Circle’s formal entry into the wrapped Bitcoin market, a corner of DeFi where your Bitcoin gets tokenized so it can participate in lending, borrowing, and other on-chain strategies without you ever having to sell it.
What cirBTC actually is cirBTC, formally called Circle Wrapped Bitcoin, is a token where each unit is backed by one native Bitcoin held in custody by Circle National Trust, a federally chartered trust bank. The custody arrangement matters: Circle is not relying on a third-party custodian with ambiguous oversight, but rather an entity with a federal charter, which carries meaningful regulatory weight for institutional buyers.
Transparency is baked in through Chainlink Proof of Reserve, which provides real-time on-chain verification of the backing. Around September 24, 2026, the circulating supply stood at approximately 4,300.68 tokens, while total reserves sat at roughly 4,448.19 BTC. The excess reserve cushion means the backing ratio is better than 1:1 at any given snapshot.
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Users mint and redeem cirBTC through Circle Mint, the same platform that handles USDC. The APIs are identical, which means any developer or institution already integrated with USDC can add cirBTC support without rebuilding their stack from scratch.
The token is available on both Ethereum mainnet and Arc, Circle’s own Layer 1 blockchain.
The wrapped Bitcoin wars Circle is walking into a market that already has entrenched players. Wrapped Bitcoin, known as wBTC, has been the dominant tokenized Bitcoin product for years. Coinbase entered more recently with cbBTC. cirBTC is the third major institutional-grade contender, and Circle is pitching it squarely on the pillars that make compliance teams comfortable: regulated custody, real-time reserve verification, and a federally chartered trust bank in the custody seat.
The practical use case that Circle is emphasizing is collateralized borrowing. Users can deposit cirBTC as collateral to borrow USDC without liquidating their underlying Bitcoin position.
The jump from around 40 tokens in mid-August to over 5,000 by late 2026 represents a supply increase of more than 100x in a matter of months.
What to watch from here The real test for cirBTC is whether it can close the gap with wBTC in terms of liquidity depth across major DeFi protocols. Deep liquidity matters because it determines how efficiently large institutions can enter and exit positions without moving the market against themselves.
Circle’s USDC integration is the strongest card in its hand here. Institutions that already use Circle Mint for USDC have a near-zero switching cost to add cirBTC to their workflow.
Circle National Trust’s federal charter gives cirBTC a compliance profile that is difficult for competitors to replicate quickly. As regulators in the US continue to clarify the rules around tokenized assets and digital custody, having a federally chartered custodian on the backing side could become a prerequisite for certain institutional investors.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Kaye Quema. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
More than four out of every five Bitcoin in existence haven’t budged in at least six months. That’s according to River Financial’s September 23 newsletter, which paints a picture of a market where the vast majority of supply is simply sitting still, locked away by holders who appear entirely uninterested in selling.
The 81% dormancy figure lands at an interesting moment. Bitcoin’s price has climbed roughly 50% from its June 2026 lows, yet trading volumes have cratered 30% year-to-date and ETF inflows have been running below average. In other words, fewer people are trading, but the ones still in the game are decidedly not letting go.
The quiet accumulation beneath the surface River’s data reveals that long-term holders have added over 3 million BTC to their positions since 2020. That’s a staggering amount of supply being pulled off the market and tucked into cold storage or long-duration wallets.
Meanwhile, movement from older coins has slowed to a trickle. Roughly 300,000 BTC changed hands from these long-held cohorts during the first half of 2026.
Retail investors flip from sellers to buyers Perhaps the most telling shift in River’s findings involves individual and retail Bitcoin holders. After dumping a net 140,000 BTC during the first half of 2026, these same participants turned around and accumulated over 107,000 BTC during the third quarter.
The accumulation hasn’t been evenly distributed, though. So-called “dolphin” wallets, those holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, have been doing the heavy lifting. These mid-tier holders scooped up more than 113,000 BTC since mid-July alone.
What 81% dormancy actually means for the market To appreciate the significance of 81% supply dormancy, consider what it implies about available liquidity. Bitcoin’s circulating supply sits around 19.7 million coins. If 81% hasn’t moved in six months, that leaves roughly 3.7 million BTC as the “active” float, the pool of coins that could realistically hit an exchange and be sold on any given day.
River Financial itself appears to be practicing what it preaches. The company’s reserves stand at approximately 33,737 BTC against liabilities of around 33,499 BTC, maintaining what it describes as 100% Bitcoin reserves.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
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Leonidas, a core member of the Bitcoin Rune DOG community, has published a lengthy open letter to Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, criticizing the exchange’s highly unusual decision to delist DOG just hours after a hack, while withdrawals remained frozen. The delisting announcement, paired with frozen withdrawals and a trust crisis stemming from the hack, caused a significant price deviation for DOG on Bitget, resulting in losses for long-term holders who trade regularly on the platform. Leonidas noted that DOG boasts a market capitalization of over $100 million, has been listed on Bitget for two and a half years with a cumulative trading volume exceeding $1 billion, and has a far larger community than many small-cap tokens still traded on the exchange. On behalf of the community, he formally demanded Bitget reinstate spot trading to resolve the abnormal market situation, while also wishing the exchange a speedy recovery of stolen assets and proper handling of the hack’s aftermath.
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The Genius Foundation plans to use approximately $62,500 each to purchase GSTOCK and GENIUS.
Ryan Myher, co-founder of Genius Terminal, announced the voting result on the allocation of approximately $125,000 worth of BNB held by the Genius Foundation that cannot be unwrapped (referring to unbundling and redeeming for underlying stocks): 50% will be used to purchase GSTOCK, and 50% will be allocated to buy GENIUS. The funds stem from accumulated fees from the Genius.fun launch platform that flowed into the foundation’s treasury. The foundation stated it will execute the plan per the voting outcome and announce updates on X after completion. According to GMGN data, the platform’s native token GENIUS currently has a market capitalization of $345 million. GSTOCK’s market cap has surpassed $24 million, with a 24-hour price increase of 24.2% and trading volume of $8.4 million. The GSTOCK token is paired with BNCB, the on-chain token of BNB treasury firm BNC, as its liquidity pool base. BlockBeats reminds users that related tokens are highly volatile, so investors should exercise caution.
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Morgan Stanley shifts to a bullish stance on the US dollar, with high yields set to continue weighing on global risk appetite.
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Goldman Sachs: AI capital expenditure has not reached an inflection point, and the market will conduct stricter scrutiny of monetization efficiency.
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According to HTX market data, major crypto tokens saw slight volatility over the weekend. Bitcoin fell below $84,000 to trade at $83,900, Ethereum at $2,688, and ZEC at $1,542. SOL surged past $120 with a 24-hour gain of 3.4%. BNB is trading at $776. The total crypto market cap rose 0.3% in 24 hours to $2.989 trillion. Altcoin rotation persists, with major DeFi tokens rallying broadly. Top gainers among DeFi tokens: QI at $0.003650 (up 103.57% in 24h), QUICK at $0.01287 (up 32.82%), AERO at $0.8314 (up 18.50%), VELODROME at $0.03558 (up 16.20%), ENA at $0.2656 (up 13.94%), JTO at $0.5670 (up 13.38%), JOE at $0.0414 (up 13.11%), ZRO at $1.611 (up 11.18%); EIGEN, REZ, LDO, KMNO, MET and JUP rose but by less than 10%. Additionally, top gainers among other altcoins include: PHA at $0.0847 (up 66.40% in 24h), ARK at $0.2524 (up 29.44%), MUBARAK at $0.05650 (up 26.29%), SEI at $0.07638 (up 20.80%), SUI at $1.1773 (up 12.57%), WLD at $0.4898 (up 10.89%).
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Morgan Stanley shifts to a bullish stance on the US dollar, with high yields set to continue weighing on global risk appetite.
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Microsoft stock advanced approximately 3% following the introduction of enhanced Copilot AI capabilities, featuring a persistent AI agent. Meta’s market capitalization surged by nearly $200 billion after its Muse AI assistant accumulated 2.8 million downloads within twelve days. Equity markets remained largely unchanged as traders balanced enthusiasm for AI advances with concerns over rising yields and energy costs. Crude oil retreated on optimism surrounding potential diplomatic breakthroughs in U.S.-Iran discussions regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin maintained support around $84,000, posting approximately 44% quarterly gains in its strongest performance since Q4 2024. Financial markets wrapped up the trading week with cautious optimism. Traders navigated between robust artificial intelligence sector momentum and headwinds from elevated borrowing costs and commodity prices. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency markets demonstrated resilience following recent turbulence.
Microsoft (MSFT) Advances on Enhanced Copilot AI Capabilities Microsoft equity rallied approximately 3% during Friday’s session. The gains followed the technology giant’s announcement of expanded functionality for its Copilot AI ecosystem.
The enhancements encompass advanced programming utilities and introduce a continuously operating AI agent engineered to provide uninterrupted user assistance.
Microsoft emerged as a leading performer within the S&P 500 index throughout the trading day. The company’s strength offset weakness observed in other market sectors.
Market participants are monitoring whether these enhanced capabilities drive increased enterprise adoption. Successful implementation would likely generate expanded recurring revenue streams.
Equity Markets Stabilize Following Week of Uncertainty Broadly, U.S. equity indices finished Friday’s session relatively unchanged. Market participants processed simultaneous signals from technology equities, fixed income securities, and commodity markets.
Artificial intelligence-focused companies provided upward momentum. However, climbing Treasury yields and sustained oil prices prompted investor caution.
Higher yields diminish the present value of anticipated corporate profits. Elevated energy costs additionally fuel inflationary pressures and challenge expectations for monetary policy easing.
Despite these headwinds, international equity markets approached their most robust weekly performance since early August. Revived interest in technology and AI-related investments propelled this momentum.
Meta’s (META) Muse AI Assistant Continues Capturing Market Attention Meta remained in the spotlight throughout the trading week. Its recently launched Muse AI assistant has demonstrated impressive early traction.
The social media giant has accumulated approximately $200 billion in additional market capitalization since Muse’s introduction. This appreciation directly correlates with investor enthusiasm surrounding the offering.
Muse attracted approximately 2.8 million downloads throughout the U.S. and Canadian markets during its initial twelve-day period, according to Reuters data. This represents exceptional velocity for a newly launched AI application.
Market observers are now focused on whether initial adoption momentum translates into sustainable revenue generation. Advertising platforms, subscription models, and e-commerce integration represent the most probable monetization pathways.
Crude Prices Decline on Diplomatic Optimism With Iran Oil prices experienced modest declines Friday. Market participants responded to indications of potential advancement in diplomatic discussions between the U.S. and Iran.
Any agreement facilitating unrestricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz could alleviate concerns regarding global energy distribution. The implications would extend significantly beyond petroleum markets.
Declining crude valuations can moderate inflationary dynamics. They may additionally reduce some upward pressure affecting Treasury yields.
For equity investors, retreating oil prices could provide additional support to growth-oriented industries including technology.
Bitcoin Maintains Support Following Impressive Quarterly Performance Bitcoin hovered near $84,000 during Friday’s trading. This represents a modest retreat from peaks approaching $87,000 observed earlier in the week.
Despite the pullback, Bitcoin ranks among the quarter’s top-performing assets. The cryptocurrency has appreciated roughly 44% throughout this period.
This trajectory positions Bitcoin for its most robust quarterly showing since late 2024. Certain long-term holders have initiated profit-taking activities following the substantial rally.
Analysts are observing whether Bitcoin can defend support within the $83,000 to $84,000 range. This zone may prove decisive in determining the asset’s trajectory toward recent peaks.
With AI-driven equities delivering gains, energy prices softening, and Bitcoin demonstrating stability, markets concluded the week with risk appetite firmly intact.
Bitcoin has surged in recent days, surpassing $80,000 and currently trading around $80,000-$85,000.
At this point, US banking giant JPMorgan pointed out a different picture for BTC.
According to JPMorgan, the fact that the Bitcoin price remains above its estimated production cost of around $85,000 suggests that selling pressure from miners may ease.
Risk of Miners Being Forced to Sell Bitcoin May Decrease! According to The Block, a team of JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou calculated an average production cost of approximately $85,000 for Bitcoin in their latest assessment of the cryptocurrency market.
At this point, analysts noted that Bitcoin’s price remaining above approximately $85,000 could alleviate financial pressure on miners and mitigate the risk of miner selling in the market.
Analysts said that BTC had been trading below its average production cost for 280 days before this week’s sharp rise. It was noted that with Bitcoin surpassing its production cost of approximately $85,000, the profitability outlook for miners could also change.
JPMorgan analysts stated that Bitcoin’s production cost has historically acted as a “soft floor” for its price. When the price remains below this level for an extended period, it negatively impacts the profitability of miners, especially those with high electricity and equipment costs.
Therefore, according to analysts, if Bitcoin remains consistently above the $85,000 level, miners may no longer need to sell their Bitcoins to cover operational expenses. This could help mitigate the risk of forced selling in the market.
*This is not investment advice.
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Bitcoin continues to rally, even as the Federal Reserve’s recent rate hike and the failure of the Clarity Act have added new uncertainties to the market. On-chain data indicates that the supply held by long-term investors recently reached a record high of 15 million BTC, suggesting a significant shift in market dynamics.
Long-term holders and selling pressureMitchell Askew, Head of Blockware Intelligence, highlighted that this unprecedented accumulation by long-term holders may reflect an exhaustion of selling pressure. When so much Bitcoin remains inactive, it often signals growing conviction among holders and a potential foundation for sustained upward price action.
Askew pointed out that historical data shows higher dormancy of coins tends to limit immediate resistance from sellers, giving space for new buyers to accumulate without large quantities entering the market. This supply dynamic can have lasting effects on both the volatility and trend direction of Bitcoin’s price.
Recent on-chain analysis revealed that long-term holders now control 15 million BTC, the highest level ever recorded, which may enhance Bitcoin’s resilience during periods of increased market volatility.
ETF flows and institutional interestAskew also discussed the role of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in shaping demand. He stated that ETF flows have been a notable indicator of renewed institutional interest, with recent inflows pointing to the possibility of bigger investors returning to the market after a period of caution.
This resurgence of institutional participation comes at a time when other market forces, such as technological demands from AI data centers and shifts in global mining, continue to influence the Bitcoin ecosystem. These factors contribute to complex supply and demand dynamics for Bitcoin miners, impacting hash rate trends and overall network profitability.
Broader market trends and investor behaviorFurther, industry observers have commented on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, noting that the traditional four-year halving cycle appears less predictable due to new variables in both technology and investor behavior. Now, younger demographics like Gen Z are increasingly scrutinized for their saving and investment habits, as economic circumstances and asset preferences evolve rapidly.
Amid these developments, tracking market activity and investor sentiment has become essential not only for Bitcoin but also for the broader digital asset sector. Technical factors such as inactive supply, inflows from institutional products, and changes in network fundamentals continue to play a pivotal role in shaping outlooks.
Market observers also stress the importance of monitoring alternative signals in the rapidly growing meme token market. For example, timing and token selection by investors can lead to rapid value creation, as illustrated by the recent success of a “Niu Lai” trade on Fomo App, where a $99 purchase surged to roughly $370,000. Integrated platforms like Fomo App, which combine token discovery, social feeds, and investor rankings, are offering new tools for monitoring shifts and opportunities in this vibrant segment.
Bitcoin is trading in a narrow range around $84,000 after a recent pullback from the $87,000 zone, with investors monitoring whether the cryptocurrency will break through resistance or retreat toward key support levels.
Key support and resistance emerge for BTCAt the latest check, Bitcoin traded at $83,943, accompanied by a 24-hour trading volume of $41.66 billion and a total market capitalization of $1.69 trillion. The price registered a marginal dip of 0.57% over the preceding 24 hours, signaling a period of consolidation following a strong move in recent weeks.
Crypto analyst That Martini Guy noted that after reaching the $87,000 area, Bitcoin experienced a pullback but continues to maintain an overall bullish structure on the four-hour chart. The recent upward run, from the mid-$70,000 region, was rejected at this key resistance, highlighting $87,000 as a significant ceiling for near-term price action.
According to That Martini Guy, if the pullback deepens, $79,500 serves as an important support level. This zone will be closely watched should sellers gain the upper hand.
Bitcoin is currently hovering near the middle line of the four-hour Bollinger Bands, which often marks a consolidation phase after a substantial move. This suggests that there is currently not a definitive shift in price trend, but rather a pause before potential further movement.
Such periods of consolidation can offer a foundation for the market to establish a new trading range, especially as BTC has already delivered significant gains since July and August.
Bollinger Bands and momentum indicators in focusTechnical analysis reveals that Bitcoin remains in the upper part of its Bollinger Bands range, with the upper band set at $86,798, the middle at $79,957, and the lower at $73,116.
Bollinger BandLevel ($)Upper86,798Middle79,957Lower73,116With BTC trading above the middle band, the four-hour structure stays bullish. However, the proximity to the upper band underlines the growing importance of $87,000 as a resistance area. If the price breaks and holds above $87,000, the bullish momentum could strengthen. On the downside, falling below $79,957 would increase the likelihood of retesting support around $79,500.
Momentum indicators back this cautiously optimistic scenario. The MACD line currently stands at 2,474.61, ahead of the signal line at 2,084.60, while the histogram records 390.01, reflecting some remaining upward momentum even after the recent price contraction.
A focus also remains on Bitcoin’s historical performance in October. Renowned analyst Ali Martinez commented on the upcoming month, referring to positive seasonality data for Bitcoin during October in prior years. While this context provides insight, analysts maintain that historical trends are not direct predictors for future price moves in October 2026.
As trading continues, attention rests on the $87,000 resistance and $79,500 support range. Breakouts in either direction may indicate the end of the current consolidation phase and set the tone for subsequent price action.
Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin is maintaining a bullish structure above key support, with consolidation near major resistance forming the backdrop for upcoming moves as October approaches.
Across the broader crypto-collateralized lending market, Galaxy Research reported $56.16 billion at the end of Q2 2026: $22.98 billion in CeFi open borrows, $20.43 billion in outstanding loans on DeFi lending applications and approximately $12.75 billion in crypto-collateralized portion of CDP stablecoin supply.
Bitcoin-backed borrowing is a small part of this, even though Bitcoin holders have borrowed against Bitcoin for years. SkyQuest estimates the Bitcoin loan market at $3.58 billion in 2025 and forecasts growth to $21 billion by 2033. The estimated Bitcoin loan market remains small relative to Bitcoin’s roughly $1.5 trillion market capitalization. That is about 0.24% of Bitcoin’s market value.
By its properties, Bitcoin should support a much larger loan market. Bitcoin is deeply liquid, globally held and available 24/7. Those are exactly the properties you want in a collateral asset. For lenders, liquidity and continuous trading support collateral valuation and liquidation. For holders, borrowing provides cash or stablecoins without selling their Bitcoin.
The constraint is how holders can borrow. Historically, most large-scale Bitcoin-backed borrowing has relied on one of two methods. You can use a centralized lender or you can wrap your Bitcoin to reach on-chain lending markets. Both work for holders, and neither is free.
So the question is not whether you can borrow against Bitcoin. You can, today. The question is whether you can see the price. In this article, price refers to the full costs and trade-offs of the borrowing model, not just the headline interest rate.
Galaxy Research map comparing CeFi and DeFi lending markets. Source: Galaxy Research, Q2 2026
What a centralized lender is charging you forWith a centralised lender, the total cost is not always captured by the interest rate. The borrower transfers Bitcoin to the lender or its custodian. Loan terms include the interest rate, allowed LTV and any processing fees. Access also depends on identity checks and jurisdictional eligibility.
Published rate cards give a view of the market. Galaxy’s retail credit line, launched in August 2026, is priced at a variable 8.99% APR, with a maximum origination LTV of 50%. Ledn’s published rate table lists 11.49% for loans below $250,000 and 9.25% for loans of $2 million or more. Ledn also lists a typical initial LTV of 50% and a $500 minimum loan. The lowest advertised rates can also require materially lower LTVs or exposure to a platform token. Nexo's advertised 1.9% rate requires an LTV below 20%, together with Platinum status and at least 10% of the portfolio held in NEXO tokens under Nexo Loyalty Program.
So what are you paying for?
Custody, balance-sheet capacity, liquidity and liquidation infrastructure. In exchange, your Bitcoin is held by the lender or its custodian for the life of the loan.
By comparison, Aave v4 uses a shared, market-based variable rate for each borrowed asset. Pricing follows protocol rules rather than individually negotiated loan quotes or platform-token loyalty tiers.
Going on-chain changes the risk model, but does it remove the cost?
On-chain Bitcoin exists in multiple tokenised formsOn-chain lending markets use several wrapped representations of Bitcoin. WBTC is the largest, with roughly $9 billion in circulation as of September 2026, according to CoinGecko. Other major representations include cbBTC, FBTC and tBTC. These assets form much of the Bitcoin collateral base in DeFi. In Token Terminal’s July 2026 report, WBTC and cbBTC accounted for 10.1% and 6.0% of Aave’s total value locked (TVL), respectively, or 16.1% combined.
What you post as collateral in these markets is not native Bitcoin. It is a token issued under another system. WBTC can be bought, swapped or borrowed without using its mint-and-burn process. At the issuance and redemption layer, however, only identity-verified institutions approved through WBTC governance can mint and burn WBTC. A holder seeking direct redemption into native Bitcoin therefore depends on an authorized merchant and WBTC’s custodial system.
The market has already shown what that trust is worth. In August 2024, BitGo announced plans to transfer management of WBTC to a joint venture with BiT Global and move from US-based custody to a multi-jurisdictional model. The announcement prompted Aave risk contributors from the Aave governance to review the implications for WBTC. WBTC did not need to fail for the market to reassess the collateral. A proposed change in the trusted parties was enough.
Bridges have been among the most costly attack vectors in digital assets. According to DefiLlama data cited by Bloomberg, 26 of the 250 hacks recorded so far in 2026 targeted bridges and cross-chain infrastructure. If the system backing a wrapped asset fails, the token posted as collateral can remain on-chain even if access to the underlying Bitcoin is impaired.
Tokenizing Bitcoin does not eliminate third-party or protocol risk. It changes its form. A centralized lender can fail. A custodial token depends on its issuer and custodian. Other designs may depend on signer sets, bridge contracts or cross-chain messaging.
None of this is permanent. The intermediary exists because native Bitcoin could not previously verify repayment and liquidation events on another chain. Removing that limitation means the intermediary can also be removed.
Comparison of Bitcoin borrowing rates, collateral types and third-party requirementsNative and trustless togetherBabylon Trustless Bitcoin Vaults (TBV) let native Bitcoin be used as collateral without wrapping, bridging or intermediaries. To use Bitcoin as collateral on Ethereum, each depositor creates a self-custodial BTCVault by locking their native Bitcoin in a dedicated UTXO on the Bitcoin network. Redemption is trustless and is authorised by a proof and challenge process.
This native and trustless end-to-end process re-prices borrowing. There is no Bitcoin custodian to pay for and no wrapped-asset issuer to redeem through.
Here is how native Bitcoin-backed borrowing through Aave v4 works. The flow is available on Babylon’s TBV public testnet app using test assets.
The five steps for borrowing against native Bitcoin through Aave v4.Lock. You lock native Bitcoin on the Bitcoin network. While the transaction receives confirmations, participants construct and pre-sign the transaction graph that fixes every permitted spending path.Activate. Once setup is complete, the self-custodial BTCVault is activated on Ethereum and Aave v4 can recognise the Bitcoin as collateral.Borrow. You borrow supported assets through Aave v4 at market-based variable rates.Repay. To close the position and withdraw all of your Bitcoin, you repay all outstanding debt and accrued interest, then request withdrawal. (Liquidation happens only if the position falls below the liquidation threshold. Partial liquidation is supported.)Unlock. Your withdrawal is checked through a challenge process on Bitcoin. If no valid challenge is raised, your Bitcoin returns to your nominated address.Why this is possible nowEfficiently verifying zero-knowledge proofs on Bitcoin has been a long-standing problem. With BitVM2, disputing a claim could require more than $14,000 in on-chain fees. BitVM3 reduced the on-chain cost but required a 42 GiB garbled circuit for each instance. BABE retains BitVM3's lower on-chain costs and reduces off-chain storage and setup requirements by more than 1,000x. This is achieved by using witness encryption for linear pairing relations instead of garbling the full Groth16 verifier.
That makes cryptographic enforcement more practical. During the BTCVault setup, participants pre-sign a Bitcoin transaction graph that fixes the permitted ways the Bitcoin can be spent. Redemption of Bitcoin is authorized by an Ethereum event, whose existence is proven by a zero-knowledge proof, and is protected by a challenge process. The proof and challenge mechanism determine whether the claim can proceed, without relying on any approval from a custodian, wrapped-asset issuer or signer committee.
Borrowing uses Aave v4’s market-based variable rates. Total costs also include applicable protocol, Vault Provider and network fees (Babylon documentation).
Native Bitcoin collateral beyond lendingTBV is designed to support multiple chains and applications and a variety of different use cases. Lending is the first integration and the largest market. In September 2025, DeFi lending reached a record $130 billion in total value locked, making it the largest DeFi sector at the time (DL News, citing DeFiLlama). Lending tests collateral under stress. Prices fall, borrowers face margin pressure and liquidations have to clear.
The same infrastructure is designed to support stablecoin issuance, derivatives, insurance and other applications.
So you’re left with a question. If borrowing against Bitcoin no longer means giving up custody or exchanging it for a wrapped asset, how much longer will Bitcoin remain idle?
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is proposing daily dividends across STRF, STRC, STRK, and STRD. The company wants its preferred shareholders to earn cash income every calendar day, a model that is unusual in the US stock market.
A dividend is simply money a company pays investors for owning its stock. Under MicroStrategy’s proposal, that income would build up every day, including weekends and holidays, with payment made on the next business day.
The total return would stay the same. The change is mainly about how often investors receive it.
Strategy is proposing daily dividends on $STRF, $STRC, $STRK, and $STRD, accruing every calendar day, including weekends and holidays, and paid the next business day, with economics unchanged. The proposed changes aim to support price stability, liquidity, and demand. pic.twitter.com/N0wkXzi1gl
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) September 25, 2026
Note: Preferred stock is a special type of company share designed mainly to pay investors regular income. Regular stock, like MSTR, gives investors more exposure to the company’s gains and losses, so its price can move much more.
STRC is Becoming an Income Product, Not a Bitcoin StockSTRC currently pays a 12% annual dividend on its $100 stated value. In simple terms, an investor holding one $100 share would receive around $12 a year at the current rate.
Daily dividends would not increase that amount. They would spread the same income across much smaller, more frequent payments.
Think of it like getting part of your monthly salary every working day instead of receiving one larger payment at the end of the month.
That could make STRC more attractive to investors who care about regular income. Strategy also says the change could support liquidity and price stability.
There are RisksSTRC is designed very differently from MSTR, the company’s flagship stock that tracks Bitcoin movements.
MSTR can rise or fall sharply because investors largely treat it as a leveraged bet on Bitcoin. STRC is built around income and Strategy’s effort to keep its price close to $100.
Daily dividends could reinforce that difference, but they cannot remove the risk.
If Bitcoin falls sharply and investors become concerned about Strategy’s finances, STRC can still trade well below $100. It happened in June, when Bitcoin dropped below $60,000, and STRC dropped to $75.
STRC 6-Month Price Chart. Source: Yahoo FinanceIts dividend also depends on Strategy having enough cash to keep paying it.
What It Means for MSTR InvestorsFor MSTR shareholders, the impact is more indirect.
Preferred shareholders sit ahead of MSTR holders in Strategy’s capital structure and must be paid before common shareholders receive anything.
So, the difference between the two products is becoming clearer.
MSTR remains the higher-volatility Bitcoin-linked trade. STRC increasingly looks like Strategy’s income product: lower upside, regular cash payments and a structure designed to keep the price relatively stable.
Bitcoin price fell to about $83,450 on Sep. 25 after a rally above $87,000 earlier in the week gave way to a narrower trading range. The pullback comes as traders weigh a quarterly options expiry against higher U.S. Treasury yields.
Summary
Bitcoin’s daily chart showed a 1.1% decline, with the price near $83,476. The 4-hour MACD turned negative as the rally from below $76,000 lost momentum. CoinGlass’s three-day heatmap showed liquidation clusters near $83,300 and above $85,000. LVRG Research’s Dan Khus said Treasury yields, ETF flows, and oil prices remain in focus. According to the daily Bitcoin price chart, BTC traded near $83,476 after reaching $85,255 during the Sep. 25 session. The price was still above the chart’s 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint at $79,951, despite retreating from an upper band near $86,724.
Bitcoin price daily chart — Sep. 25 | Source: TradingView The decline followed a sharp move earlier in the week that carried Bitcoin above $87,000. The daily chart showed the relative strength index at 62.03, down from the higher readings reached during the rally but still above the neutral level of 50.
Bitcoin holds above $83K as the 4-hour MACD weakens Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart showed the price falling from the $86,000–$87,000 area and then trading mostly between $83,000 and $85,000. Its latest candle on the chart opened at $84,583, fell to $83,183, and traded near $83,454.
Bitcoin price 4-hour chart — Sep. 25 | Source: TradingView The 4-hour MACD line stood at 251.25, below its signal line at 551.84. Its histogram reading of minus 300.59 showed that short-term momentum had weakened after the earlier advance. The Awesome Oscillator remained positive at 154.98, although its bars had narrowed toward zero.
Trader Ardi described $83,000 as local range support and a former May high. In a Sep. 25 market post, Ardi said a loss of that level could put $81,000 back in view, while reclaiming $85,200 as support could open another test of the $87,000 highs. Trader Daan Crypto Trades separately identified $83,500 to $85,000 as the range Bitcoin had occupied over the previous two days.
The levels are close to concentrations on CoinGlass’s three-day Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. The chart showed a bright band near $83,300, with further liquidity around $82,500. Above the market, clusters appeared near $85,200–$85,500 and around $87,300. The heatmap shows where leveraged positions may face liquidation if price reaches those levels; it does not establish which direction Bitcoin will move next.
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass Options expiry meets a rise in U.S. Treasury yields A large quarterly options expiry has added another event for derivatives traders to navigate. Options positions can affect hedging and trading around settlement, although the expiry alone does not establish what caused Bitcoin’s decline.
The U.S. bond market has also moved into focus. Dan Khus, chief analyst at LVRG Research, told crypto.news that Bitcoin and Ether were holding support as the Treasury sell-off eased slightly. His comments put the 10-year yield near 5.19% after a 30-basis-point rise.
“Bitcoin and ether are maintaining in support as the Treasury sell-off cooled slightly with the 10-year easing back toward 5.19% after a 30-basis-point surge. Looking ahead, focus is on whether yields stay elevated, October Fed hike odds hold above 70%, and if spot ETF flows can absorb weekend options expiry, along with any further oil-driven inflation shock from developments in the US-Iran conflict.”
The Federal Reserve raised its target rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%–4.00% on Sep. 16. Khus’s October figure refers to market expectations for another increase, rather than a decision already made by the Fed. Oil prices and developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict could affect those expectations through their impact on inflation.
ETF demand and $83K support frame Bitcoin’s next test U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows offer a separate measure of demand as the market absorbs the price reversal. Khus identified those flows, alongside yields and the options expiry, as factors to watch. Farside Investors’ ETF flow table tracks the funds’ daily net subscriptions and redemptions.
For the near-term chart setup, the first test is whether Bitcoin can hold the $83,000–$83,500 range cited by the traders and visible on the 4-hour chart. A move below it would bring the heatmap’s lower liquidity bands and Ardi’s $81,000 level into focus. On the upside, a sustained move back above $85,000–$85,200 would put the higher liquidation clusters and the recent $87,000 peak back in view.
Bitcoin’s daily RSI remained above 50, and its price remained above the Bollinger Band midpoint, while the 4-hour MACD showed weaker short-term momentum. Those readings leave the next move tied to the range boundaries as traders assess the expiry, U.S. yields, and ETF flows.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Strategy is seeking shareholder approval to move its four preferred stocks, including STRC, to daily dividend payments without changing their dividend rates or the total amount paid.
The company’s board approved the proposal on Thursday, according to a Friday filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Shareholders are scheduled to vote on the amendments at a virtual special meeting on Oct. 28.
If approved, each calendar day would become a dividend record date, with the corresponding payment made on the next business day. STRC would move to the new schedule first, with its initial daily dividend payment expected on Nov. 2.
STRF, STRK and STRD would follow in January, with their first payments under the daily schedule expected on Jan. 4. The amendments would take effect after Strategy files updated certificates governing the preferred stocks with the state of Delaware.
Strategy follows Strive into daily dividendsStrategy’s proposal comes several months after fellow Bitcoin treasury company Strive moved its SATA preferred stock to daily dividend payments, becoming the first public company to adopt the model.
Strive announced in May that SATA would begin paying dividends every business day on June 16 at a 13% annual rate, and also reported that it eliminated its outstanding debt in the first quarter.
Unlike Strive’s business-day schedule, Strategy’s proposal would make every calendar day a record date, with the corresponding dividend payable on the following business day.
Strive holds 26,355 Bitcoin, compared with Strategy’s 846,000 BTC, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET.
Top 10 Bitcoin treasury companies. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET
Strategy CEO says leverage drove STRC below $100While Strive was the first public company to offer daily dividends, Strategy pioneered what it calls “digital credit,” preferred securities designed to generate income from a capital structure built around the company’s Bitcoin treasury.
STRC, a key part of Strategy’s digital credit strategy, has seen significant price swings this year. In June, the stock fell sharply below its $100 stated amount, hitting an intraday low of $71.25 on June 26, according to Yahoo Finance data.
Speaking on Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories podcast earlier this week, Strategy CEO Phong Le attributed the decline to more leverage entering the market for STRC than the company had anticipated. He said some investors borrowed against Bitcoin at lower rates to buy STRC and capture the spread between their borrowing costs and STRC’s dividend yield.
When Bitcoin’s price fell, investors who had borrowed against their holdings faced pressure to either add more collateral or sell STRC, according to Le.
“We did not expect the amount of leverage that came into the system,” Le said. “And so that’s a lesson learned, next time around.”
Le said Strategy is seeking to prevent another such unwind by maintaining a strong US dollar reserve and having a policy that allows the company to repurchase STRC when it trades below its $100 stated amount. He also said the company wants to attract more long-term holders, particularly institutional investors.
STRC has since recovered to about $98.41, close to Strategy’s stated goal of keeping the security between $99 and $100. It currently carries a 12% variable annual dividend rate.
Magazine: Exchanges reporting crypto gains to IRS becomes tax nightmare
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Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has an answer to whether his tweets move crypto markets, no, they don’t, even when the timing looks suspiciously perfect.
Zhao addressed speculation that his August 19 tweet triggered a 20% Bitcoin rally that unfolded just hours before Trump’s crypto summit speech. “The short answer is no. I do not have the power to do that,” Zhao said, explaining he tweets bullish content five to ten times daily and had no advance knowledge of Trump’s speech. “If I had known, I would not have made that tweet.”
Zhao said the tweet came from reading a quote about taking action today to build a better future, which he adapted into crypto commentary while on the road, calling it coincidence rather than insider timing. “If you tweet bullish five times a day, one of the times it will be five hours before positive news,” he said. “Well, for sure no one is complaining today.”
On whether crypto has reached market saturation, Zhao pointed to global adoption figures suggesting crypto penetration remains under 1% worldwide, arguing significant room for growth still exists.
On Whether Retail Investors Can Compete Against Paid Promotion
Asked whether retail investors can truly win when projects pay market makers, KOLs, launchpads and exchanges for promotion, Zhao said yes, though he acknowledged the space between honest marketing and outright deception isn’t always clear-cut. “Between false and truth, it’s not always black and white,” he said, noting projects can overhype or use deliberately ambiguous language without technically lying.
Zhao said protecting retail investors requires a combination of factors: encouraging founders to act responsibly, educating users to evaluate projects based on fundamentals rather than hype, and building out regulatory disclosure requirements similar to those already standard in traditional stock markets. He noted such frameworks remain underdeveloped across most crypto markets today.
Ultimately, Zhao argued that the market self-corrects over time. “Any new industry will have some guys who can overhype, who can over-market, and they will get a short-term benefit at the expense of users,” he said. “But in the long run, those projects will not last. The long-lasting platforms will be the ones built sustainably and solidly.”
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Well-known analyst Benjamin Cowen has unveiled an updated strategic model for Bitcoin in Q4 2026, urging investors to abandon forecasting in favor of responding strictly to the chart's current structure. He made the statement as Bitcoin tested a key technical level around $83,000.
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The trigger for this urgent reassessment of market strategy was Bitcoin's move above its May high on the weekly timeframe, which effectively broke the classic four-year cycle pattern. According to the analyst, the current weekly candle's close will activate the main trigger determining the asset's direction through the end of the year.
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What one weekly candle will decideUnder Cowen's updated framework, the market's next move depends entirely on whether Bitcoin can hold its current price levels. The analyst outlines two possible outcomes:
Bullish scenario (holding above): If Bitcoin closes the week and holds above its May peak, it would significantly strengthen buyers' position and lay the groundwork for an uptrend throughout the fourth quarter.
Bearish scenario (false breakout): A move back below the May high would amount to a major fakeout. In that case, the asset would face the seasonal correction typical at the end of the year, though it would not fall to new cycle lows.
Bitcoin weekly chart from Benjamin Cowen illustrating the pivotal battle at the May resistance level, Source: Into The Cryptoverse You Might Also Like
Cowen stressed that, in current market conditions, trying to predict the exact direction of the price is counterproductive.
"You don't have to predict what happens; I think reacting is better in this case," the analyst said.
As a basic defensive strategy, investors are still advised to use dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in the second half of the year, leveraging historical midterm seasonal tendencies to build long-term positions amid heightened volatility.
Regardless of possible short-term shocks in October or November, Bitcoin's broader macroeconomic trend remains optimistic, with strong performance expected in early 2027.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth disclosed that his holdings in Bitcoin on Coinbase produced capital gains ranging from $2,702 to $6,000 during 2025, as detailed in his annual financial report.
Details of Bitcoin holdings and transactionsThe annual disclosure, certified on September 18 by the Office of Government Ethics, outlines two separate Bitcoin stakes in a single Coinbase wallet. The first stake, valued between $15,001 and $50,000, registered capital gains between $2,501 and $5,000. The second stake, worth $1,001 to $15,000, resulted in gains of $201 to $1,000.
Combined, these entries place the total value of Hegseth’s Bitcoin between approximately $16,000 and $65,000. The form separates holdings by value brackets, but does not specify individual trade dates or precise amounts.
For transactions exceeding $1,000, Part 7 of the report provides further detail. However, no Bitcoin trades are listed in this section, as only sales valued above $1,000 require itemization. Any transactions below this threshold do not appear in the breakdown.
The breakdown of holdings in the report places Pete Hegseth’s Bitcoin at between $16,000 and $65,000, with gains for 2025 in the range of $2,702 to $6,000, based on separate wallet entries.
Hegseth completed and signed the financial report on May 14. The Defense Department’s ethics office approved the disclosure in August, followed by the Office of Government Ethics’ final certification in September.
Stock holdings and sales after assuming officeThe disclosure form covers additional investment activities beyond cryptocurrency. Several weeks into his appointment, Hegseth sold shares of Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Honeywell, each valued between $1,001 and $15,000. On February 7, he also sold holdings in KKR and Blackstone, both in the $15,001 to $50,000 range.
Further divestments occurred on March 24, when Hegseth sold stock in major technology firms Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle. His largest individual acquisitions were in index funds, with between $100,001 and $250,000 each invested in SPY and QQQ on February 24.
The report also notes more than $1 million held in a single U.S. bank account, emphasizing Hegseth’s substantial traditional financial holdings alongside his digital assets.
Mortgages, mortgage rates, and property detailsHegseth’s financial disclosure lists two mortgages on his primary residence, with each loan falling between $1,000,001 and $5,000,000. A new mortgage obtained in 2025 carries an interest rate of 8.5 percent.
Monitoring investor behavior across asset classes, particularly in rapidly evolving sectors like meme tokens, has gained additional importance. In the meme token market, an internet trend can transform into millions of dollars of interest within days. According to data shared by Fomo App, a trade involving “Niu Lai”—which turned an initial $99 investment into approximately $370,000, stands out as a striking example of this activity. In this market, tracking not only prices but also the timing and token choices of investors is crucial. Fomo App brings token discovery and trading together on a single platform, featuring social feeds, investor rankings, and trade notifications. Discover Fomo App to follow the world of meme tokens alongside investor activity.
Broader context: Trump’s digital asset incomePresident Trump reported making $1.4 billion from digital assets through 2025. Separate filings in May revealed that Trump made repeated purchases of Coinbase and Strategy shares, reflecting continued exposure to cryptocurrency-related investments.
President Trump has reported $1.4 billion in digital asset gains, with filings showing ongoing accumulation of both Coinbase and Strategy shares.
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has presented a revised strategy for navigating the Bitcoin market in the fourth quarter of 2026, urging investors to move away from forecasting and instead focus on responding directly to current price movements. This guidance comes as Bitcoin challenges a critical technical level near $83,000, breaking its previous May high and signaling a potential shift away from the well-known four-year cycle.
Strategic shift amid technical breakoutCowen highlighted that Bitcoin’s recent move above its May peak on the weekly chart has triggered his reevaluation of market strategies. He believes this breakout marks the end of predictable cycle-driven movements and calls for a more flexible, chart-centered approach through the end of the year.
The outcome of the current weekly candle is set to play a pivotal role in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory going into 2027. Cowen’s new framework centers on whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above the recently surpassed resistance level.
“You don’t have to predict what happens; I think reacting is better in this case,” noted Cowen, emphasizing that a responsive approach is superior to attempting to forecast the market’s exact direction.
Bullish and bearish scenariosAccording to Cowen’s analysis, two primary scenarios may unfold. Should Bitcoin close the week above its May high and maintain this level, the market could see renewed strength for buyers and the possibility of an extended uptrend through the final quarter of the year.
Alternatively, if Bitcoin fails to hold above its May peak and drops back below, Cowen suggests this would constitute a false breakout. In such a situation, Bitcoin may undergo a seasonal correction commonly observed at year-end, though he does not anticipate a return to new cycle lows.
In both cases, Cowen warns that strict prediction efforts may be unproductive in the current climate, with a focus on monitoring meaningful price levels proving more effective.
Advisory on investment strategiesFor investors aiming to navigate the remainder of 2026, Cowen recommends dollar-cost averaging (DCA) as a prudent approach, taking advantage of well-documented midterm seasonal trends to gradually accumulate positions amid ongoing volatility.
He maintains that, despite the possibility of short-term turbulence in October or November, Bitcoin’s broader macro trend remains favorable, with early 2027 positioned as a period of likely strong performance.
Given the technical importance of tracking not only price levels but also investor activity and market timing, trends in related segments become increasingly significant. In the meme token space, the rapid movement of capital highlights the importance of real-time observations. For instance, Fomo App data reveals a notable trade where an initial $99 investment in “Niu Lai” ballooned to about $370,000. Fomo App has emerged as a hub for token discovery and trading, integrating social feeds, investor rankings, and trade notifications to help users follow the fast-paced world of meme tokens and investor behavior.
This week featured significant developments in crypto regulation, blockchain infrastructure, and global finance as policymakers and organizations moved to address the sector’s evolving landscape. US Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner Hester Peirce delivered a compelling critique of current anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) frameworks during a speech at SIFMA’s Digital Assets Conference. Peirce stated that while regulatory compliance is essential, the prevailing approach of collecting extensive personal data from customers is flawed.
SEC’s Peirce calls for modernized verificationSpeaking in her last weeks as an SEC commissioner, Peirce highlighted the security risks and privacy concerns that stem from storing large amounts of sensitive customer data. She argued that emerging technologies like zero-knowledge proofs and attribute-based credentials could confirm critical facts, such as a person’s age or investor status, without requiring institutions to collect or keep underlying records.
Peirce emphasized that her views are personal and do not signal imminent regulatory change. Nevertheless, her remarks came at a time when regulators and market participants are re-examining the balance between compliance and user privacy.
Regulators are now considering solutions that enable compliance without unnecessary data collection, as innovations like zero-knowledge proofs offer ways to verify requirements while respecting privacy.
US government and dollar-backed stablecoin pushAmid geopolitical and technological shifts, the Trump administration is considering public-private ventures to promote dollar-backed stablecoins abroad. The Treasury Department, State Department, and US International Development Finance Corporation are reportedly involved in discussions aiming to secure the dollar’s role as the global digital currency. Although the initiative’s details and timeline remain unclear, the topic has moved into the policy arena at the highest levels.
Separately, Binance announced plans to rename its Spot Accounts to “Stocks Accounts” by 2027 and transfer user assets from Funding Accounts in advance. With millions of users affected, any operational change at the world’s largest crypto exchange has wide-ranging implications.
X, formerly known as Twitter, filed lawsuits against users accused of manipulating its creator-revenue program via fake Bitcoin influencer accounts. The company is seeking to curb new techniques in crypto fraud, which have recently shifted focus from wallet drainage to engagement farming.
ECB adopts blockchain for institutional paymentsThe European Central Bank introduced Pontes, a wholesale settlement platform connecting distributed ledger systems with its core TARGET payments infrastructure. Thirteen major institutions, including Deutsche Bank, Santander, and Clearstream, joined the launch, enabling central bank money to settle tokenized asset transactions. Pontes underpins the institutional layer of digital finance, distinct from any retail-focused digital euro pilots.
The Pontes platform establishes important connectivity between traditional settlement infrastructure and private blockchain networks, marking a notable milestone for institutional tokenized finance.
Amid these technical advances, market watchers note that, particularly in low-liquidity environments, price and volume spikes often reflect speculative behavior rather than underlying fundamentals. In the meme token market, an internet trend can transform into millions of dollars of interest within days. According to data shared by Fomo App, a trade involving “Niu Lai”—which turned an initial $99 investment into approximately $370,000, stands out as a striking example of this activity. In this market, tracking not only prices but also the timing and token choices of investors is crucial. Fomo App brings token discovery and trading together on a single platform, featuring social feeds, investor rankings, and trade notifications. Discover Fomo App to follow the world of meme tokens alongside investor activity.
AI regulation and global tech competitionSingapore has intensified its national push for artificial intelligence adoption, while the country’s financial regulator, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, warned that the speed of AI investment growth could pose risks. Authorities maintain that encouraging innovation while managing potential fallout is a delicate balance. Meanwhile, the UK has pressured Google to provide broader access to Android and search functionality for AI assistants and rival developers, echoing regulatory themes emerging from the European Union.
On the geopolitical front, Xi Jinping met with Donald Trump at the White House in the first US state visit in over a decade by a Chinese leader. Trade, AI, and regional tensions dominated the summit, though existing trade deals remained unchanged.
Other notable movements included sharp price action in tokens such as Neon and AntFun. Neon saw brief speculative surges on thin trading activity, while AntFun declined following a reduction in speculative hype and profit-taking by holders.
Numerous altcoins have produced far more impressive gains than BTC over the past week, including XRP, SOL, ADA, LINK, DOGE, NEAR, and more.
It was a rather interesting and unexpected week for the cryptocurrency markets, especially since the setbacks suffered just ten days ago.
Recall the market update from last Friday, in which we reported that BTC had somehow crossed the $80,000 barrier despite the failure of the CLARITY Act in the US Senate and the Fed’s subsequent interest rate hike. The cryptocurrency slipped to $75,000 after both of those developments, but rebounded swiftly and reclaimed the key $80,000 level by Friday afternoon. It hasn’t been below that level since.
Although it was initially stopped at $82,000 during the previous weekend after more bad macro news, this time on the two major war fronts, BTC started the current business week with one of its most impressive rallies this year. It defended the $80,000 support and the bulls drove it higher by $7,000 in less than 24 hours. As such, the cryptocurrency topped $87,000 for the first time since late January on the heels of massive ETF inflows.
It pulled back to $85,000 almost immediately, but the bulls initiated another leg up to $87,300. However, the rejection scenario repeated, and BTC has been unable to recapture its momentum since then. Moreover, it dipped below $83,000 on Thursday before it found support and bounced off to $85,000 earlier today.
The bears were more persistent once again, stopping its progress there and pushing it south to $83,500 as of press time. This means that the largest cryptocurrency is still 5% up weekly, but its performance has dwindled compared to most alts. The graph below will show the clear winners, led by BTW’s massive 73% weekly surge. ENA (52%), NEAR (45%), ONDO (40%), SUI (39%), BCH (32%), and AVAX (29%) follow suit.
Among the largest alts, XRP, LINK, and ADA stand out as the top performers, with gains of 17%-18%. Naturally, this has driven the BTC dominance metric south hard, losing roughly 2% in a week.
You may also like: How Will Crypto Markets Move After $16B in Bitcoin Options Expire Today? 2 Major On-Chain Signals Are Testing the Strength of Bitcoin’s Rally Crypto vs Stocks: What the 200-Day Moving Average Shows Now BTC: $83,500 (+5%) | ETH: $2,685 (+5.9%) | XRP: $1.57 (+17%)
This Week’s Crypto Headlines You Can’t Miss This Signal Has Flipped to Altcoin Season as Crypto Rally Spreads Beyond Bitcoin. We continue with the altseason narrative as Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal flipped from BTC season to one dominated by altcoins this week, which was not the case during the August rally.
Bitcoin Just Broke Its Correlation With Gold, Stocks, and the Dollar: What Changed? Meanwhile, BTC’s relationship with the largest asset classes such as US equities and the precious metal market has deteriorated as most have failed to follow the cryptocurrency’s resurgence.
Zcash Tops $1,600 After Europe’s First ZEC ETP Debuts. The popular privacy coin continued its impressive ascent in the past several days, surging past $1,600 for the first time in a decade. The latest move higher came after 21Shares launched the first ZEC ETP in Europe.
Bitget Reports $351M Hot Wallet Breach, Says User Funds Are Covered. The week didn’t go by without a major incident as Bitget reported an incident in which bad actors swiped over $350 million in various cryptocurrencies. The exchange promised that every dollar of that loss falls under its User Protection Fund, so customers’ balances will remain whole.
Ondo Finance Unveils BlackRock-Backed On-chain Portfolios for Investors. Ondo launched three new on-chain portfolio products based on BlackRock strategies, aiming to integrate traditional portfolio management with blockchain. Perhaps it’s no surprise that its native token is among the top gainers over the past week.
Strategy’s Bitcoin Stash Hits 846,000 After Fresh 950 BTC Purchase. After another pause, this time a smaller one of just three weeks, the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin resumed its purchases, accumulating 950 BTC for $75.7 million. Interestingly, Strive made an even more impressive buy this week, scooping 1,355 units for $107.7 million.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee expects Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) to maintain a $150,000 target while arguing Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) could eventually reach $60,000 as tokenization, Wall Street adoption and AI bring a much larger pool of investors into digital assets.
Why Lee Calls It Bigger Bull MarketIn a "Money Talks" interview on Sept. 24, Lee noted that past cycles were largely driven by specific crypto-native themes: initial coin offerings in 2017, NFTs and meme coins during the pandemic-era boom, and, more recently, stablecoins.
This time, Lee sees a much broader combination of catalysts.
Tokenization is accelerating, Regulatory backdrop has become more crypto-supportive, and Financial institutions are increasingly exploring blockchain infrastructure. AI and autonomous agents could create another source of demand for crypto-based payments and settlement. Long periods of price consolidation across crypto also strengthen his bullish outlook.
Some assets have spent roughly five years trading within broad ranges, which Lee believes could ultimately produce decisive breakouts.
Ethereum’s Eventual $60,000, Bitcoin’s $150,000Lee has maintained his $150,000 Bitcoin target, even as it consolidates after its latest rally. After peaking at $87,000 during a two-week rally, Bitcoin traded largely flat through Sep. 24 and is now hovering around $85,000.
Ethereum could offer even greater upside if institutional adoption of blockchain technology continues, Lee said.
He highlighted Ethereum’s roughly five-year consolidation and compared its current setup with the breakout that followed the 2018 bear market, which eventually produced an approximately 17-fold rally.
He advocates that ETH could multiply 10x to 12x above its prior highs of $5,000, placing it at around $60,000 in a couple of years.
In the shorter term, Lee sees $3,000 as a reasonable target and expects ETH to eventually move well above its previous highs and peak to an all-time high this year.
What Is the Rule Of "10 Best Days"Lee argues investors should be cautious about attempting to perfectly time crypto markets.
Digital assets tend to generate a disproportionate amount of their gains during a handful of sharp rallies, which Lee describes through his "rule of 10 best days."
His broader thesis rests on crypto becoming increasingly integrated with TradFi rather than simply attracting another wave of speculative traders.
"I think we’re early," Lee said. "I think crypto could run a lot."
As Bitcoin (BTC) recently rebounded to around $85,000, holders have started taking profits, but the volume of realized profits is significantly lower than during previous market peaks. Data shows BTC holders have accumulated roughly $2.4 billion in realized profits recently, while daily realized profits typically hit $7 billion to $10 billion during past market peaks. BTC has risen approximately 44% so far this quarter, hitting a peak near $85,000, marking its best quarterly performance since Q4 2024, after three consecutive quarters of declines. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a combined net inflow of around $2.84 billion over the past six trading days, exceeding BTC holders' realized profits in the same period; year-to-date, the ETFs' cumulative net inflow has also turned positive at roughly $800 million. Ethereum (ETH) has also shown signs of capital outflow from exchanges: around 410,000 ETH has been moved out of trading platforms over the past month, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have attracted a combined $680 million in net inflows over the past four trading days. Following the $452 million Bitget hack, BTC, ETH and other major crypto assets have not shown significant signs of weakening so far. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index have temporarily slowed their rally, but crude oil markets remain highly volatile due to news related to U.S.-Iran tensions.
Japan’s 30-year bond yield climbed to a record 4.223% on Friday. That is the highest level since Tokyo first sold the maturity in 1999.
Borrowing costs are rising across the curve. The 10-year yield reached 3.055% on Thursday, its highest point since August 1996.
Why Japan’s 30-Year Bond Yield Keeps ClimbingMonetary policy is the first driver. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised rates to 1.25% on September 18, the highest level since 1995. The board split 7-2, yet the central bank signaled that further hikes remain on the table, according to its statement.
Fiscal strain adds to the pressure. Government ministries requested a record ¥143.1 trillion for fiscal 2027, Reuters reported. Debt servicing alone accounts for ¥36.64 trillion. Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry raised its assumed borrowing rate to 3.8% from 3%.
Selling abroad has also spilled into Tokyo. The US 10-year Treasury yield broke 5% on September 15 during a global bond sell-off. The Federal Reserve then lifted its target range to between 3.75% and 4%.
However, the yen has not benefited. The currency slid toward 158 per dollar after the BOJ decision. A similar split appeared when Japan’s 2-year yield hit a 31-year high in August.
Katsutoshi Inadome of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management linked the two trends.
“Japanese bond yields are facing upward pressure as inflation concerns grew on a weaker yen.”
What Japan’s Record Yield Means for Bitcoin
🚨THIS IS INSANE
Japan's 30-year bond yield just hit 4.223%, its highest level ever in history.
Japan is now paying over 4% to borrow for 30 years – a historic reversal from decades of ultra low rates. pic.twitter.com/rR5om8SOil
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) September 25, 2026
Higher safe returns raise the bar for risk assets. A 30-year Japanese bond now pays more than 4%, which could draw capital away from crypto.
The larger threat sits in the yen carry trade. Investors borrow cheap yen and buy higher-yielding assets abroad. A sharp yen rally would make those loans costlier and could force selling.
Historically, that risk has hit crypto hard. During the 2024 yen shock, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell roughly 20% as positions unwound.
For now, Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $84,033, down 0.5% in 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto data. The wide gap between US and Japanese rates keeps the carry trade open.
Therefore, the yen may be the signal to watch. A sudden reversal in USD/JPY would suggest carry positions are closing, and Bitcoin could feel it quickly.
Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi wrote in a post that after Bitcoin (BTC) rose to around $86,000, it is facing a normal correction. In the current bull market, investors should "be bearish but not short" and wait patiently for the next long trading opportunity. He noted that for specific trading opportunities, Ethereum (ETH) is showing stronger performance; trading infrastructure assets such as UNI and HYPE are gaining market acceptance, while ZEC is a "strong-whale asset".
Pi Network price hovered at $0.0893 on September 25, extending its seven-day gain to 7%. The token rose roughly 2.7% in 24 hours as traders tracked another network upgrade and changes to identity checks.
Bitcoin price traded near $83,600, Ethereum near $2,690, and XRP price around $1.58. The overall crypto market climbed 1.2% to about $2.99 trillion, giving smaller tokens a firmer backdrop.
Protocol 28 Testnet Upgrade Puts October Rollout in Focus Protocol 28 has entered Pi Network’s Testnet following the Mainnet rollout of Protocol 27, according to community upgrade reports. The changes aim to reduce transaction-data delays, support grouped smart-contract upgrades, and improve how applications update stored information. Node operators have been told to upgrade by October 13, ahead of a planned October 16 Mainnet activation.
Those dates remain targets, and successful Testnet checks will matter before the upgrade reaches the live network. The October event concerns a protocol upgrade; Pi’s Mainnet is already operating.
🚀 PI NETWORK PROTOCOL v28 IS NOW ON TESTNET!$Pi’s next protocol upgrade is entering testing, opening the door to further improvements in network performance, scalability and ecosystem capabilities.
🛠️ Testnet first. Mainnet comes next.
The Pi Network continues moving forward.… pic.twitter.com/2zpGKywqiw
— Pi News (@CTNewsApp) September 25, 2026
For PI, a sustained move above $0.090 could put this week’s $0.0945 area back in view. A slip below $0.085 would weaken the recent recovery and return attention to the seven-day low near $0.083. These are nearby trading levels, not assured outcomes of the software release.
KYC Upgrades Unblock More Pi Network Users Pi Network said its latest verification changes cleared a duplicate-account flag affecting more than 417,000 previously blocked users. Those eligible users can resume KYC, although they must still satisfy any remaining checks.
A separate fix is intended to help about 497,000 users unable to claim migrated balances. Pi attributed that problem to insufficient wallet funds for network fees on accounts created through Fast-Track.
It also adjusted video-processing systems and broadened liveness-check access for older phones. Selected users can try palm-print verification, while affected applicants can resubmit missing details. Wider access could support network activity, but it does not establish a direct cause for PI’s price gains.
Could Pi Network Price Reach $0.10 if Momentum Improves? The Pi Coin price stood at $0.08904 on September 25. The Pi Network price had rebounded from a mid-month low near $0.082 but was struggling to hold above $0.090
A sustained four-hour close above $0.090 could bring $0.095 back into view. That level marked an earlier resistance area. If future Pi Coin outlook clears it, the chart’s next marked target is $0.100.
The relative strength index stood at 61. That suggests improving momentum, though the reading remains below the usual overbought threshold.
The MACD line remained slightly below its signal line, with both readings near zero. That gap leaves the rebound without clear momentum confirmation.
PI/USDT 4-hour chart: TradingView If Pi Network price fails to hold $0.090, recent support near $0.087 becomes the first downside level. A break below it could expose $0.085, followed by the mid-month low near $0.082.
A team of cryptography researchers has proposed a new system called Shielded Bitcoin that would bring Zcash-style privacy to $BTC transfers without touching Bitcoin's core protocol.
The white paper was authored by Clara Shikhelman, Mikhail Komarov, and Aleksei Moskvin of New York-based research firm [alloc] init. The proposal outlines a novel privacy metaprotocol on the Bitcoin base layer designed to enable shielded transactions without requiring operators, soft forks, or other changes to Bitcoin consensus.
How It WorksThe proposal would conceal transaction amounts, senders, receivers, and links to previously spent funds using encrypted notes and zero-knowledge proofs. Instead of having miners enforce the privacy protocol, Shielded Bitcoin would use Bitcoin as a neutral publication and ordering layer.
The design explicitly draws from Zcash's architecture, using encrypted notes, public nullifiers that mark notes as spent, and zero-knowledge proofs that verify transactions are valid. Unlike Zcash, however, Shielded Bitcoin would not operate its own blockchain or consensus mechanism.
Programs called indexers scan Bitcoin for Shielded Bitcoin data, verify its cryptographic proofs, and reconstruct the private system's history. Invalid data can still land on-chain because Bitcoin does not understand the metaprotocol. Indexers simply ignore it. Anyone can rerun those checks using Bitcoin's published history, meaning no single indexer decides what is valid.
Wallets would generate separate spending and viewing keys, allowing users to transact privately while selectively disclosing transaction details.
Open Questions and LimitationsThe proposal is not without gaps. Getting bitcoin in and back out of the shielded system is being left to a companion white paper based on [alloc] init's Bitcoin PIPEs v2 research and witness encryption. Witness encryption remains young technology. Komarov noted its ciphertexts have been reduced from roughly 300 terabytes to about 8 terabytes in a year, significant progress, but still far from practical. "It's still pretty experimental," Komarov said.
Developer Vadim Zavodil pointed out that the system starts with no established anonymity pool, meaning few early participants make it easier for outside observers to trace transaction relationships, a limitation the researchers themselves acknowledged. Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers, founder of Pauli Group, also noted the proposal lacks quantum resistance and expressed interest in working on a post-quantum version of the system.
Shikhelman was scheduled to present the research at BitDevs NYC on September 24 as [alloc] init sought feedback ahead of its companion white paper on entry and exit. Until that piece of the puzzle is solved, Shielded Bitcoin remains research rather than a usable privacy system.
Sources:
Bitcoin.com News: Shielded Bitcoin Proposal Aims to Bring Privacy to Bitcoin L1
CoinTelegraph: Researchers Propose Zcash-Style Bitcoin Privacy Without Soft Fork
Crypto Times: Researchers Propose Shielded Bitcoin for Private L1 Transfers
In brief Researchers at [[alloc] init] have published a specification for Shielded Bitcoin, a protocol for private transfers on the Bitcoin base layer. The design borrows Zcash's encrypted notes and zero-knowledge proofs, and requires no changes to Bitcoin's consensus rules. Mechanisms for moving BTC into and out of the shielded system are not covered and are due in a separate paper. Researchers at Bitcoin cryptography developer [[alloc] init] have published a design for "ZCash-style" private transfers that would hide the sender, recipient and amount of a payment while running on the existing Bitcoin network.
The 56-page paper, dated September 24, 2026, is written by Clara Shikhelman, Mikhail Komarov and Aleksei Moskvin.
The team has "put a lot of work into thinking carefully about the security of Shielded Bitcoin and about what information the protocol reveals," Shikhelman tweeted. Komarov called it "ZCash-style privacy on the Bitcoin L1 via PIPEs v2."
Scott Odell, chief operating officer of [[alloc] init], tweeted that the firm had been "cooking on this for quite a while," and described it as a contribution to making Bitcoin "private, without changing Bitcoin."
Value in Shielded Bitcoin is held as encrypted "notes," and each transfer carries a zero-knowledge proof that the sender controls the notes being spent and that inputs and outputs balance. A public marker called a nullifier lets software reject double spends without revealing which note was used.
Zcash enforces those rules through its own blockchain. Shielded Bitcoin publishes transfers as data on Bitcoin, which records them without checking them, while separate software called indexers verifies the proofs and rebuilds the shielded state.
The paper contrasts this with Shielded CSV, a 2025 Bitcoin proposal in which coin owners must keep their own transaction data, which generally cannot be recovered from the chain.
Timing, fees and the number of inputs and outputs remain public, the authors write. "Like Zcash and Monero, Shielded Bitcoin preserves the privacy of who paid whom and how much, not that a shielded transfer happened," the paper states.
Myriad: When will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high? Click to make your prediction.Peg-in and peg-outThe paper covers only transfers inside the system. How BTC enters and leaves is left to a separate paper built on Bitcoin PIPEs v2, earlier [[alloc] init] research that encrypts a Bitcoin signing key so it can be recovered only with a valid proof, according to the firm's website.
The current version uses the Groth16 proof system, whose security depends on an honestly run trusted setup ceremony. It publishes each transfer in an OP_RETURN output, which comes to 625 vbytes for a transfer with two inputs and two outputs, according to the paper.
That relies on the larger OP_RETURN default in Bitcoin Core v30, a contested change that node operators can reverse, so relay depends on enough nodes and miners keeping it, the paper notes.
An appendix sketches an optional compliance layer in which a "Trust Authority" certifies approved deposits, letting institutions verify a note's origins without exposing the transfer graph. Notes without that evidence would remain valid.
Zcash, whose design Shielded Bitcoin borrows, now trades through regulated funds in the U.S. and Europe. Grayscale's Zcash ETF began trading on NYSE Arca on August 25, and 21Shares listed Europe's first Zcash exchange-traded product on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam on September 22.
ZEC was trading at $1,592 on September 25, up 4% over the past 24 hours, with a seven-day high of $1,658.86, per CoinGecko data.
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In brief Researchers at [[alloc] init] have published a specification for Shielded Bitcoin, a protocol for private transfers on the Bitcoin base layer. The design borrows Zcash's encrypted notes and zero-knowledge proofs, and requires no changes to Bitcoin's consensus rules. Mechanisms for moving BTC into and out of the shielded system are not covered and are due in a separate paper. Researchers at Bitcoin cryptography developer [[alloc] init] have published a design for "ZCash-style" private transfers that would hide the sender, recipient and amount of a payment while running on the existing Bitcoin network.
The 56-page paper, dated September 24, 2026, is written by Clara Shikhelman, Mikhail Komarov and Aleksei Moskvin.
The team has "put a lot of work into thinking carefully about the security of Shielded Bitcoin and about what information the protocol reveals," Shikhelman tweeted. Komarov called it "ZCash-style privacy on the Bitcoin L1 via PIPEs v2."
Scott Odell, chief operating officer of [[alloc] init], tweeted that the firm had been "cooking on this for quite a while," and described it as a contribution to making Bitcoin "private, without changing Bitcoin."
Value in Shielded Bitcoin is held as encrypted "notes," and each transfer carries a zero-knowledge proof that the sender controls the notes being spent and that inputs and outputs balance. A public marker called a nullifier lets software reject double spends without revealing which note was used.
Zcash enforces those rules through its own blockchain. Shielded Bitcoin publishes transfers as data on Bitcoin, which records them without checking them, while separate software called indexers verifies the proofs and rebuilds the shielded state.
The paper contrasts this with Shielded CSV, a 2025 Bitcoin proposal in which coin owners must keep their own transaction data, which generally cannot be recovered from the chain.
Timing, fees and the number of inputs and outputs remain public, the authors write. "Like Zcash and Monero, Shielded Bitcoin preserves the privacy of who paid whom and how much, not that a shielded transfer happened," the paper states.
Myriad: When will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high? Click to make your prediction.Peg-in and peg-outThe paper covers only transfers inside the system. How BTC enters and leaves is left to a separate paper built on Bitcoin PIPEs v2, earlier [[alloc] init] research that encrypts a Bitcoin signing key so it can be recovered only with a valid proof, according to the firm's website.
The current version uses the Groth16 proof system, whose security depends on an honestly run trusted setup ceremony. It publishes each transfer in an OP_RETURN output, which comes to 625 vbytes for a transfer with two inputs and two outputs, according to the paper.
That relies on the larger OP_RETURN default in Bitcoin Core v30, a contested change that node operators can reverse, so relay depends on enough nodes and miners keeping it, the paper notes.
An appendix sketches an optional compliance layer in which a "Trust Authority" certifies approved deposits, letting institutions verify a note's origins without exposing the transfer graph. Notes without that evidence would remain valid.
Zcash, whose design Shielded Bitcoin borrows, now trades through regulated funds in the U.S. and Europe. Grayscale's Zcash ETF began trading on NYSE Arca on August 25, and 21Shares listed Europe's first Zcash exchange-traded product on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam on September 22.
ZEC was trading at $1,592 on September 25, up 4% over the past 24 hours, with a seven-day high of $1,658.86, per CoinGecko data.
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Zcash co-founder Eli Ben-Sasson has backed Shielded Bitcoin, a proposal that adds private transfers to Bitcoin’s base layer. He also says Zcash (ZEC) is on track to hit his $5,000 year-end target.
Ben-Sasson, who also co-founded StarkWare, co-wrote the Zerocash paper that preceded Zcash. His original goal, he says, was to bring that privacy to Bitcoin.
Shielded Bitcoin Brings Zcash-Style Privacy to Layer 1Research firm Alloc Init published the proposal on September 24. Its authors are Misha Komarov, Aleksei Moskvin, and Clara Shikhelma.
According to the whitepaper, the design combines encrypted notes, public nullifiers, and zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs. Nullifiers stop the same hidden coins from being spent twice. It needs no soft fork, BitVM, or consensus change. Instead, it relies on Bitcoin PIPEs, a tool built on witness encryption. As a result, all protocol data lives on Bitcoin itself, the team says.
That matters because standard Bitcoin payments stay visible on-chain and can reveal sensitive business payment details to outsiders.
Ben-Sasson admits he has not read the paper yet. Still, he welcomed the direction and hopes to see ZK privacy and scaling reach Bitcoin’s base layer.
I love this direction, our original intent with Zerocash paper (the whitepaper preceding Zcash) was to bring privacy to Bitcoin. Haven't read this one, but would love to see our vision of privacy and scalability via ZK materialize on Bitcoin L1. https://t.co/e9qrjX8NmN
— Eli Ben-Sasson | Starknet.io (@EliBenSasson) September 24, 2026
Ben-Sasson Predicts $5,000 ZEC After Earlier Call HeldOn September 9, Ben-Sasson predicted ZEC would trade above $1,200 by September 25. That call has held. ZEC now trades at $1,545.89, up 1.44% in 24 hours. It has gained nearly 291% over 90 days. The token ranks ninth by market capitalization.
Reaching $5,000 would still require a gain of roughly 223%. Meanwhile, he says more whales now ask him what drives the rally. He admits he has no answer and has asked followers for theirs.
Zcash (ZEC) 90-Day Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoSeveral catalysts have surfaced in September, however. Zcash spot funds drew $98.2 million in one week through September 18, the largest inflow among 14 crypto products. Ledger also added private Zcash balances to its desktop app. At the same time, the rally has punished traders shorting ZEC, with one position closing at a $10.68 million loss.
Ben-Sasson frames his target as a personal bet, not investment advice. Whether ETF demand holds through December could decide if ZEC gets close.
A new protocol proposal called Shielded Bitcoin has been published, aiming to provide transaction privacy at the base layer for Bitcoin (BTC).
The study titled “Shielded Bitcoin: Private Transfers on the Bitcoin L1,” prepared by Alloc Init researchers Clara Shikhelman, Mikhail Komarov, and Aleksei Moskvin, suggests that Zcash-like private transfers may be possible in Bitcoin without requiring changes to consensus rules or soft forks.
What is Shielded Bitcoin? According to the published study, Shielded Bitcoin is designed as a metaprotocol running on top of Bitcoin, rather than using a separate blockchain or a central operator. The system stores values in encrypted “notes,” marks spent notes with publicly available identifiers called “nullifiers” that do not reveal the source of the transaction, and verifies transaction validity with zero-knowledge proofs. Thus, the aim is to prevent the transfer amount, sender, recipient, and the connections between transactions from being publicly visible.
One of the system’s notable aspects is that the Bitcoin network doesn’t directly verify Shielded Bitcoin rules. Shielded Bitcoin data can be added to Bitcoin transactions via OP_RETURN, witness fields, or similar data transfer methods. Bitcoin miners and nodes don’t check whether this data is valid for Shielded Bitcoin. Instead, a special Shielded Bitcoin indexer replays transactions by tracking the Bitcoin blockchain and excludes invalid transactions from the protocol state.
In Shielded Bitcoin, the equivalent of Bitcoin’s UTXO model is a “note” structure. When a note is spent, it is not explicitly shown which note was spent. Instead, a nullifier associated with zero-knowledge proof is issued. This proof confirms that the spent note is valid, that the user has the necessary spending authority, that the nullifier was correctly generated, and that no new Bitcoin was created during the transaction. Reusing a previously used nullifier detects a double-spending attempt.
According to the researchers, this architecture eliminates the need for users to trust a service provider, coordinator, or separate consensus network. Running a Bitcoin node and a shielded Bitcoin indexer is sufficient to verify the system. Private keys remain with the user. The privacy model of the design is significantly inspired by Zcash’s shielded pool architecture.
Regarding Shielded Bitcoin’s connection to the Bitcoin network, the Bitcoin PIPEs mechanism, previously worked on by researchers, stands out. PIPEs aims to hold funds in cryptographically controlled Bitcoin L1 vaults by linking the outcome of zero-knowledge proofs to Bitcoin’s existing signature verification mechanisms. Komarov argues that the system can therefore operate without requiring a soft or hard fork.
However, the published work does not yet represent a Bitcoin protocol update or a widely used, ready-made product. While the scope of the article primarily focuses on the transfer model within the shielded system, it is stated that Bitcoin’s entry and exit mechanisms, namely peg-in and peg-out structures, are part of the broader system design and are outside the scope of the article.
*This is not investment advice.
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In brief Bitcoin fell about 0.9% to roughly $83,600 on Friday, retracing part of a rally that pushed it to an intraday high near $87,000, Technical indicators on the charts still read bullish, though the Fed's next move could reshape the outlook. Meanwhile, XRP (+15.45% over seven days) and Solana (+9.33% over seven days) are outperforming the broader crypto market. Bitcoin slipped to around $83,600 on Friday, a pullback of roughly 1% from the prior close, as the week's rally took a breather. The dip follows an intraday high near $87,000—territory Bitcoin hadn't touched in months—after it broke out of the $75,000 to $81,000 range that had capped it for weeks.
The move isn't spooking chart-watching traders, though. Bitcoin's daily setup still reads bullish with the 50-day moving average sitting above the 200-day in a pattern known as a golden cross.
Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.Some of Friday's softness has a mechanical explanation. $15.6 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Deribit, and dealers often unwind hedges once that flow clears—a routine event that can jolt prices without breaking the underlying trend.
That would help explain why open interest and 24-hour trading volume both fell sharply, down 14.39% and 13.68% respectively. The liquidations came in fairly balanced too: $161.96 million in long positions against $156.1 million in shorts in the last 24 hours, a pattern that looks more like leverage getting reset than a one-sided flush.
Macro tailwinds are still doing some of the work. The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, but kept buying short-term Treasury bills to keep bank reserves flush—a combination that blunted the hawkish optics and kept risk assets bid.
Myriad: What will the Fed do next? Click to make your prediction.But that relief didn't last. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's post-meeting dot plot projected a median rate of just 4.1% through the end of 2027, signaling only one more hike was likely. Fed Governor Michael Barr said on September 23 that "further policy adjustments are likely needed," a comment that landed alongside a report showing core PCE inflation at 3.4%, near a four-year high.
Odds of an October hike have since climbed to roughly 75% on the CME's FedWatch tool and 68.5% on Myriad Markets, a sharp reversal from where they sat right after the September meeting.
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in another $299.09 million on friday, a smaller number than the single-day hauls recorded earlier in the week—a sign the initial burst of buying is cooling rather than accelerating.
Total crypto market cap sits at $2.87 trillion, down from the $3 trillion-plus level reached earlier this week. The Fear and Greed Index has eased to 72 from a peak of 79, still solidly in “greed” territory, just less euphoric.
Most of the top 10 cryptocurrencies are following Bitcoin lower over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is roughly flat, BNB is down 0.81%, and Tron and Hyperliquid are both in the red. XRP and Solana are the exceptions.
XRP is up 4.37% over the past day and 15.45% over the week, trading near $1.58, at a $99 billion market cap. XRP ETFs notched a nine-day inflow streak worth $1.6 billion in late August, and inflows have continued since as institutional interest appears to build for the token.
Solana is up 3.36% on the day and 9.33% over seven days, changing hands at around $119.84 and a $70 billion market cap.
The network's Alpenglow upgrade, which cuts transaction finality to roughly 150 milliseconds, already cleared a validator governance vote with overwhelming support, though its mainnet activation date remains tentative. Meanwhile, spot Solana ETFs from Fidelity, Grayscale, and VanEck—which launched back in November 2025—continue to see inflows as the upgrade narrative builds.
The next test for Bitcoin arrives fast. September's Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data lands September 30, followed by the September jobs report on October 2, both capable of resetting rate expectations heading into the fourth quarter.
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In brief Bitcoin fell about 0.9% to roughly $83,600 on Friday, retracing part of a rally that pushed it to an intraday high near $87,000, Technical indicators on the charts still read bullish, though the Fed's next move could reshape the outlook. Meanwhile, XRP (+15.45% over seven days) and Solana (+9.33% over seven days) are outperforming the broader crypto market. Bitcoin slipped to around $83,600 on Friday, a pullback of roughly 1% from the prior close, as the week's rally took a breather. The dip follows an intraday high near $87,000—territory Bitcoin hadn't touched in months—after it broke out of the $75,000 to $81,000 range that had capped it for weeks.
The move isn't spooking chart-watching traders, though. Bitcoin's daily setup still reads bullish with the 50-day moving average sitting above the 200-day in a pattern known as a golden cross.
Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.Some of Friday's softness has a mechanical explanation. $15.6 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Deribit, and dealers often unwind hedges once that flow clears—a routine event that can jolt prices without breaking the underlying trend.
That would help explain why open interest and 24-hour trading volume both fell sharply, down 14.39% and 13.68% respectively. The liquidations came in fairly balanced too: $161.96 million in long positions against $156.1 million in shorts in the last 24 hours, a pattern that looks more like leverage getting reset than a one-sided flush.
Macro tailwinds are still doing some of the work. The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, but kept buying short-term Treasury bills to keep bank reserves flush—a combination that blunted the hawkish optics and kept risk assets bid.
Myriad: What will the Fed do next? Click to make your prediction.But that relief didn't last. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's post-meeting dot plot projected a median rate of just 4.1% through the end of 2027, signaling only one more hike was likely. Fed Governor Michael Barr said on September 23 that "further policy adjustments are likely needed," a comment that landed alongside a report showing core PCE inflation at 3.4%, near a four-year high.
Odds of an October hike have since climbed to roughly 75% on the CME's FedWatch tool and 68.5% on Myriad Markets, a sharp reversal from where they sat right after the September meeting.
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in another $299.09 million on friday, a smaller number than the single-day hauls recorded earlier in the week—a sign the initial burst of buying is cooling rather than accelerating.
Total crypto market cap sits at $2.87 trillion, down from the $3 trillion-plus level reached earlier this week. The Fear and Greed Index has eased to 72 from a peak of 79, still solidly in “greed” territory, just less euphoric.
Most of the top 10 cryptocurrencies are following Bitcoin lower over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is roughly flat, BNB is down 0.81%, and Tron and Hyperliquid are both in the red. XRP and Solana are the exceptions.
XRP is up 4.37% over the past day and 15.45% over the week, trading near $1.58, at a $99 billion market cap. XRP ETFs notched a nine-day inflow streak worth $1.6 billion in late August, and inflows have continued since as institutional interest appears to build for the token.
Solana is up 3.36% on the day and 9.33% over seven days, changing hands at around $119.84 and a $70 billion market cap.
The network's Alpenglow upgrade, which cuts transaction finality to roughly 150 milliseconds, already cleared a validator governance vote with overwhelming support, though its mainnet activation date remains tentative. Meanwhile, spot Solana ETFs from Fidelity, Grayscale, and VanEck—which launched back in November 2025—continue to see inflows as the upgrade narrative builds.
The next test for Bitcoin arrives fast. September's Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data lands September 30, followed by the September jobs report on October 2, both capable of resetting rate expectations heading into the fourth quarter.
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Ethereum (ETH) is flashing 3 bullish on-chain signals as exchange supply shrinks, priority fees climb, and Binance stablecoin reserves rebuild.
The signals come after ETH rallied from around $1,900 to $2,800 before pulling back. The asset now trades near $2,678, up about 8% over the past week, BeInCrypto Markets data shows.
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Ethereum Keeps Draining Off Exchange Order BooksSantiment data shows just 3.49% of ETH supply now sits on tracked exchanges. Another 1.16% of total supply has moved off these platforms since June 1.
The firm added that exchange balances had already sunk to levels last seen in Ethereum’s first years this summer. The drop extends a slide in exchange reserves since January. Fewer coins on exchanges leave less ETH ready to sell.
“But it reduces the pool of ETH readily available to hit the market during the next wave of selling,” the firm added.
Ethereum Supply on Exchanges. Source: X/SantimentStaking and Decentralized Finance (DeFi) help explain where the coins are going. Santiment estimates roughly 35% of ETH is staked, while Ethereum holds about $53 billion in DeFi value.
Corporate treasuries also keep coins off exchanges. BitMine holds 5.98 million, with 85% of its holdings staked.
“If demand strengthens while available exchange supply stays this scarce, buyers have fewer immediately available coins to compete for,” the team added.
Traders Pay Up to Jump the Block Space QueueOn the demand side, an analyst citing CryptoQuant data noted that priority fees rose 26.74% in a single day to about $464,000.
Gas used, however, climbed only 0.26% to roughly 217.1 billion. Blocks mined held near 7,147, so higher block production did not drive the fee jump.
“The lack of a significant decline in gas usage suggests that demand for Ethereum block space has not weakened substantially despite the price pullback,” the post read.
The analyst interpreted this gap as users paying more for faster processing. That points to stiffer competition for the same block capacity.
Stablecoin Dry Powder Refills on BinanceLastly, XWIN Japan tracked Binance’s ERC-20 stablecoin reserves. They recovered to about $43.8 billion from an August low near $42 billion.
The analyst described exchange stablecoins as potential buying power for Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets. However, reserves still trail the roughly $49 billion recorded earlier this year.
What Could Knock the Setup Off CourseEach signal carries caveats. Santiment stressed that thin exchange supply does not guarantee higher prices. XWIN Japan also warned that reserves may sit idle or back derivatives positions.
On price, the analyst tracking network activity flagged $2,600 to $2,650 as support. Holding that zone could set up a retest of $2,700 to $2,800.
Meanwhile, a sharp drop in priority fees with weaker gas usage would pressure the $2,600 level, the analyst warned. The coming sessions should show whether fee competition can outlast the cooling price momentum.
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25 September 2026 | 15:43 Bitcoin is holding above $82,700 after its latest advance, but the next move depends on whether buyers can defend that reclaimed area before confronting resistance near $87,400.
BTC traded near $84,700 at the time of writing after reaching roughly $87,400. The important development was Bitcoin’s ability to remain above the $82,700 region after moving through it.
That area is now the line between a pause within the advance and the possibility of failed breakout attempt. A daily candle can briefly dip below it without settling the issue, but a close back beneath it would show that the market has not yet accepted the higher range. Holding it, by contrast, leaves the recent high near $87,400 as the next test.
Bitcoin daily chart Fibonacci retracement levels. This is a more advanced stage of the rebound Coindoo examined when Bitcoin recovered $80,000. The earlier question was whether BTC could return above that larger round-number area. The current one is whether it can retain the next reclaimed band while buyers absorb supply overhead.
What the chart is asking: Can Bitcoin hold the level it has just reclaimed long enough to make another challenge of $87,400 meaningful?
Demand has improved; price still needs to confirm it The market has some evidence behind it. Farside Investors data shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded six consecutive positive sessions from September 17 through September 24. Net inflows totalled about $2.84 billion over the run, led by $999 million on September 21 and $714.7 million on September 22.
Those flows do not predict the next daily close but they do, however, add evidence that buying interest has extended beyond a single brief price move. That is relevant while Bitcoin is trying to establish itself above a newly reclaimed level rather than merely spike through it.
Glassnode’s September 23 report adds context to that test. Its analysts place a large long-term-holder cost-basis cluster around $84,000-$85,000, close to the current market. It maps where a substantial group of holders acquired coins, rather than establishing a guaranteed price floor. The report also says profit-taking has remained much lighter than at the major 2024 and 2025 peaks, meaning the rally has not yet drawn the same scale of distribution.
Glassnode Bitcoin on-chain holder valuation metrics. The limitation is participation. Glassnode says spot volume has risen 121% from its August trough, while the seven-day average remains about 30% below its level a year earlier. Trading activity has recovered materially from its recent low, yet remains short of the depth seen a year ago. The market therefore has better demand evidence, while the price breakout still needs confirmation.
Why $87,400 matters before $90,000 does The recent high near $87,400 is Bitcoin’s immediate ceiling. A daily close above it would establish a new local high and show that the market can move beyond the first area where sellers have recently appeared. Until that happens, looking far beyond the chart’s visible resistance is premature.
This also puts a September 18 Coinbase Institutional scenario in context. Before the latest advance, the firm said a hold above $83,000 would favour a retest of $90,000, with $95,000 identified as a later resistance level. Bitcoin has broadly met that first condition, but the analysis was a conditional view published before the move, not a current target. The market still needs to clear $87,400 before $90,000 becomes a practical level for readers to watch.
Below $82,700, the chart becomes less forgiving If Bitcoin cannot preserve the reclaimed area, the first stronger support is near $80,450. On the daily chart, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement meets a rising diagonal in that region. A pullback there would not erase the broader recovery, but a daily close below it would place BTC back inside the earlier range and weaken the immediate breakout case.
The next lower reference is near $76,100, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement sits. Glassnode’s True Market Mean lies separately around $77,000. The two methods measure different things, but together they create a broader $76,000-$77,000 area that would matter if the nearer Fibonacci-and-diagonal support gives way.
Bitcoin has moved from recovery into a more demanding phase: it now has to prove that demand can hold a reclaimed level and overcome nearby supply. The ETF streak and on-chain data make that case more credible, while the volume comparison explains why it remains unconfirmed. The market’s answer could come first at $82,700 and then at $87,400.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are volatile, and technical levels can change quickly.
Author
Alexander Zdravkov is a market analyst and crypto journalist with interests in economics, broader financial markets and digital assets. His journey into crypto began more than four years ago, driven by a fascination with the rapid evolution of blockchain technology and the transformative potential of decentralized finance. He began analyzing market cycles and identifying emerging trends before they reach the mainstream. He holds a degree in International Relations - a background that helped shape his broader perspective on global economics, geopolitics, and the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. Whether covering the latest developments in the crypto sector or exploring broader macroeconomic themes, Alexander focuses on giving readers context rather than simply repeating headlines. During his career, he has authored more than 5,000 articles covering cryptocurrencies, traditional finance, and global market developments. His work spans everything from Bitcoin and altcoins to macroeconomic trends influencing risk assets worldwide.
None of the 15 large institutions interviewed by Bitwise reduced its crypto allocation during the roughly 50% market drawdown between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026, and several added to their positions, according to the asset manager's first Institutional Crypto Adoption Report.
The report, written by chief investment officer Matt Hougan and head of research Ryan Rasmussen, draws on interviews conducted in March and April with endowments, foundations, public pensions, sovereign wealth funds, multi-family offices, investment consultants and public companies managing anywhere from hundreds of millions to tens of billions of dollars.
Every institution that holds crypto holds bitcoin, and for nearly all of them it was the first, largest and longest-held position. Allocators that weight their holdings by market capitalisation keep roughly 80% of their crypto exposure in bitcoin. Most now frame the asset alongside gold as a store of value. "People are starting to use bitcoin as a fiat debasement trade along with gold," one large endowment told Bitwise, and one sovereign wealth fund said it was funding its crypto allocation by selling foreign exchange and gold reserves.
Ether and Solana are held in smaller positions with shorter time horizons and explicit exit conditions. One institution with DeFi experience said it saw no "clear mechanism by which value accrues to the underlying token," and several said they would exit within a few years if adoption fails to show up in prices. "Something has to work. At some point, if this stuff doesn't work, we'll be out," said one investor who has held crypto for a decade.
Allocations ranged from 0.5% to 13% of investable assets, with most between 1% and 2%. Family offices reported the largest positions and sovereign wealth funds the smallest, and the full report finds allocation size falls as the number of approvals required rises. Almost every institution either uses spot ETFs or plans to, and several are moving out of illiquid private placements into ETF or direct exposure. No investor named price as a reason to sell; the stated triggers were thesis failure, regulatory reversal or an industry-wide credibility crisis.
Bitwise argues the obstacles are now institutional. Custody logistics, board approval and the difficulty of classifying assets like ether within existing frameworks weigh more heavily than doubts about returns, and at public-facing funds career risk still dominates. "If your peers own crypto and you don't, you are structurally short relative to what you're being graded on," one investment consultant said. The report also flags a concentration risk, with only about 10 crypto managers meeting typical institutional thresholds for size and track record.
The findings come with caveats. Fifteen interviews is a small sample, and Bitwise, which sells crypto ETFs and index funds to the same allocators, has a commercial interest in the conclusion. The firm nonetheless expects a majority of institutional investors to hold crypto within five years, while naming a major crypto-specific crisis, or ether and Solana failing to convert usage into price, as the developments most likely to slow that trajectory.
Key Highlights Block has become a member of the x402 Foundation and integrated Bitcoin Lightning Network into the open payment standard. The x402 protocol enables AI agents to conduct automated payments for digital services, APIs, and data using HTTP 402 payment requests. Development code committed on September 23 revealed Lightning integration before the official public announcement. The x402 platform processed 75.41 million transactions totaling $24.24 million in volume during the most recent 30-day window. Multiple blockchain ecosystems including Cardano, Casper, and XRP Ledger have integrated support for the protocol. Block has become a member of the x402 Foundation and integrated Bitcoin Lightning Network functionality into the payment standard designed for AI agents and digital services.
Block has joined the x402 Foundation, an open standard for agentic payments, to help build the rails that will let people, businesses, and agents pay and get paid.
We’ve also contributed Bitcoin Lightning payments, which is purpose-built for the instant, low-cost, high-volume…
— Block (@blocks) September 24, 2026
The integration was publicly revealed on September 24. Block emphasized that Lightning Network aligns perfectly with the payment requirements of AI agents—specifically low fees, rapid settlement, and high transaction frequency.
Steve Lee, who oversees Block’s Bitcoin development arm Spiral, described the Lightning integration as progress toward establishing Bitcoin as practical currency for daily transactions conducted by both humans and their automated agents.
Understanding x402’s Function x402 operates as an open payment framework. Originally developed by Coinbase, the protocol now operates under Linux Foundation governance.
The system leverages the HTTP 402 “Payment Required” status code. When AI agents attempt to access APIs, datasets, or digital resources, servers can issue payment requests through this mechanism.
Agents automatically process these payment demands and resubmit their requests with payment verification. The entire sequence occurs autonomously, eliminating manual checkout processes.
Public code repositories reveal that Lightning implementation was underway before the formal announcement. A September 23 commit introduced what developers labeled “exact Lightning on lnbtc,” referencing the network identifier for this functionality.
Block has not disclosed specific metrics for Lightning transactions, merchant adoption, or AI agent usage related to this new capability. The x402 Foundation’s dashboard displays aggregate statistics across all payment methods: 75.41 million transactions, $24.24 million in total volume, 94,060 buyers, and 22,000 sellers during the preceding 30-day period.
Stablecoin Dominance in Payment Activity Stablecoins currently represent the majority of x402 transaction volume rather than Bitcoin. According to Circle’s data, USDC comprised 99.3 percent of x402 payment volume during their latest reporting quarter.
Lightning Network provides developers an alternative for direct Bitcoin settlement without dollar-pegged tokens. Erik Reppel, x402’s creator and Technical Steering Committee member, explained the protocol was architected for network-agnostic expansion without privileging specific payment infrastructure.
Block now joins an expanding roster of x402 Foundation supporters. Current participants include Google, Amazon Web Services, Coinbase, Mastercard, Visa, Stripe, Circle, Ripple, Shopify, and the Solana Foundation.
Microsoft appeared among initial supporters when the Foundation launched in April. However, the company was absent from the 40 organizations listed as operational members in the Foundation’s July announcement.
Block maintains several related initiatives in this domain. The company contributes to goose, an open-source AI agent, co-founded the Agentic AI Foundation, and participates in Google’s Universal Commerce Protocol initiative.
Multiple organizations have recently integrated x402 across various blockchain platforms. Cardano’s development environment received x402 support through an experimental testnet implementation.
Casper’s production network already operates x402 functionality enabling AI agent payments for digital services. XRP Ledger surpassed one million x402 transactions by July, with Ripple-supported t54.ai developing infrastructure for AI applications on that platform.
Amazon Bedrock AgentCore incorporated Coinbase’s x402 implementation for USDC settlements, enabling corporate AI agents to conduct payments within enterprise spending frameworks. The Graph similarly employs x402, offering developers pay-per-query blockchain data access instead of subscription models.
Block has not announced a timeline for incorporating Lightning-based x402 functionality into consumer-facing products including Square, Cash App, or Bitkey. The company confirmed ongoing Lightning development contributions and continued participation in x402 Foundation working groups.
Bitcoin ETF inflows slow to $191M as six-day streak reaches $2.8BUS spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $191 million Thursday as daily inflows slowed for a third day, lifting year-to-date net flows to $787 million.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) drew about $191 million in net inflows on Thursday, pushing their six-session total past $2.8 billion.
After hitting a 2026 high of $999 million on Monday, daily inflows fell for three consecutive sessions while Bitcoin retreated from above $87,000. Thursday’s total was down 81% from Monday, according to SoSoValue data.
The latest inflow streak lifted the funds’ year-to-date total to roughly $787 million, reversing a 2026 deficit of about $5.5 billion at the end of June. September alone has attracted $2.56 billion so far, following $3.52 billion in August.
Daily flows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValueBlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF by assets, accounted for about $163 million of Thursday’s inflows, according to Farside Investors data. IBIT has attracted roughly $1.35 billion during the six-session streak, or nearly half of the funds’ combined inflows.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin traded at $83,807, down 0.3% over the past 24 hours but still up about 8% over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
Bitcoin ETF inflows slow to $191M as six-day streak reaches $2.8BUS spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $191 million Thursday as daily inflows slowed for a third day, lifting year-to-date net flows to $787 million.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) drew about $191 million in net inflows on Thursday, pushing their six-session total past $2.8 billion.
After hitting a 2026 high of $999 million on Monday, daily inflows fell for three consecutive sessions while Bitcoin retreated from above $87,000. Thursday’s total was down 81% from Monday, according to SoSoValue data.
The latest inflow streak lifted the funds’ year-to-date total to roughly $787 million, reversing a 2026 deficit of about $5.5 billion at the end of June. September alone has attracted $2.56 billion so far, following $3.52 billion in August.
Daily flows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValueBlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF by assets, accounted for about $163 million of Thursday’s inflows, according to Farside Investors data. IBIT has attracted roughly $1.35 billion during the six-session streak, or nearly half of the funds’ combined inflows.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin traded at $83,807, down 0.3% over the past 24 hours but still up about 8% over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
TLDR Volmex Labs CEO Cole Kennelly said Bitcoin could reach $500,000 within roughly two years. Bitcoin would need to gain about 540% from the cited price near $84,269 to reach that target. Volmex specializes in crypto volatility and operates indexes that track forward-looking Bitcoin volatility expectations. Standard Chartered previously projected Bitcoin at $500,000 by 2028 before later moving the target to 2030. Earlier $500,000 forecasts from Cathie Wood, Mike Novogratz, and Robert Kiyosaki show how long-term Bitcoin price targets can shift or miss expected timelines. Bitcoin price returned to focus after Volmex Labs CEO Cole Kennelly said Bitcoin could reach $500,000 within about two years. Bitcoin traded near $84,269, meaning the target would require a rise of roughly 540% from that level.
Kennelly leads Volmex Labs, a company that builds crypto volatility products and indexes. His forecast stands apart from the firm’s indexes, which measure expected volatility rather than predicting whether Bitcoin will move higher or lower.
Volmex Tracks Market Expectations Volmex operates the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index, which tracks forward-looking volatility expectations for Bitcoin. The company also launched BVIV-US, which uses options linked to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust to measure expected Bitcoin volatility in the United States. Bitcoin ETF allocators held exposure during the drawdown, according to a recent Bitwise survey.
Recent market moves provide context for the forecast. Bitcoin recently climbed above $85,000 as short liquidations increased, showing how quickly price conditions can change during periods of stronger market activity.
Earlier $500,000 Calls Show Mixed Timing Several major market figures have previously named $500,000 as a possible Bitcoin target. Standard Chartered once expected that level by the end of 2028, but the bank later moved the timeline to 2030 as corporate Bitcoin buying weakened.
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said in 2021 that Bitcoin could rise roughly tenfold within five years. Mike Novogratz later made a similar forecast, while Robert Kiyosaki predicted $500,000 by 2025. Bitcoin traded near $87,000 this week after recovering from lower September levels.
Institutional demand remains one factor traders continue to watch. A recent Bitwise survey found that large crypto allocators maintained or increased exposure during a major drawdown, while Bitcoin remained the most common crypto asset among respondents.
Forecast Requires a Large Bitcoin Price Gain Corporate demand also remains part of the wider market picture. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings reached 845,050 BTC, while recent company activity has kept attention on how public firms may influence Bitcoin demand over longer periods.
The $500,000 forecast requires Bitcoin price to rise more than sixfold from the level cited during Kennelly’s interview. Earlier forecasts show that long-range targets can change as market conditions, institutional demand, liquidity, regulation, and investor behavior develop. No forecast guarantees a future price, and previous missed deadlines show why investors often reassess targets as market data arrives.
The recent rise in bitcoin prices brings a technical signal that the market is closely watching. On September 22, the price crossed its 365-day simple moving average, around 80,900 dollars. This crossing comes after 310 days below this line, according to Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku, the founders of Altcoin Pro. Their study shows that this crossing preceded increases over several previous periods, while reminding them that this indicator does not guarantee a sustainable rise.
In brief Bitcoin rises again above its 365-day moving average after 310 days below this line. Altcoin Pro observes five previous crossings followed by a rise twelve months later. Historical performances ranged from 59% to over 1,400%, with several exceptions. The next test is to check if the price maintains this level after its recent pullback. Bitcoin rises again above its 365-day average The crossing observed on September 22 marks a notable change in the technical reading of the BTC market. In an email addressed to CoinDesk, Altcoin Pro states that Bitcoin has found its 365-day moving average for the first time in 310 days. For Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku, this return above the line creates a potential bullish signal.
The five previous cases studied by Altcoin Pro share an important common point. Each time, the price was higher twelve months after regaining its 365-day average. These situations followed at least 90 days spent below this average. However, the observed performances varied greatly, from about 59% to over 1,400%.
The 2012 case explains the maximum extent observed in this series. At that time, the market still considered bitcoin a marginal asset. Horst points out, however, that this model remains imperfect and does not constitute a guarantee. Two crossings failed when the analysis includes shorter periods below the average.
Moving averages give different signals Altcoin Pro also gives an important place to the 200-day moving average. According to the founders, this reference provides a more advanced signal than the 365-day one. It had reached about 70,800 dollars, while bitcoin was about 19% above before its slight pullback of the previous 36 hours. The 365-day average remained, however, down and closer to the market price.
This difference comes from the pace at which each indicator integrates past prices. The 365-day average reacts more slowly to recent movements. The two analysts believe that the first indicator reflects the old data more than the second. The second reacts over three months, according to their explanation.
On September 8, another technical signal had already attracted the market’s attention. Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average had crossed above the 200-day one, forming a “golden cross.” However, CoinDesk had reminded us that this signal has a mixed record when used alone to anticipate a sustainable rise.
The market still has to confirm this technical change Altcoin Pro nevertheless considers this crossover more constructive in the current context. Bitcoin had spent 293 days below its 200-day moving average before rising above it again. This duration remains shorter than the approximately 436 days spent below this threshold during the 2022-2023 bear market. This breakout therefore remains central to their analysis.
Historical data show, however, that technical indicators do not directly describe future prices. Moving averages are based only on past prices and measure a trend over a given period. They can therefore react with a delay when the market changes rapidly. This limitation explains why Horst and Zhuleku ask for confirmation.
The next test concerns bitcoin’s ability to maintain this level after the pullback. Horst described the September progress as encouraging while calling for its confirmation. The crossing thus brings an additional technical signal to the current market. Its evolution will now depend on how the price reacts around this average.
The crossing of the 365-day average thus marks an improvement in bitcoin’s technical signal, after 310 days below this reference. The historical precedents studied by Altcoin Pro show subsequent rises, but also failures. The next step is to assess if the BTC price maintains this threshold and progressively confirms the observed change.
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Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.
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Key Takeaways Strive secured approximately $85.88 million via SATA preferred stock offerings across three consecutive trading days between September 21 and September 23. The capital raised could support the acquisition of approximately 1,002 Bitcoin, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.net. Strategy purchased 950 BTC during the week concluding September 20, while simultaneously deploying $174 million to repurchase its STRC preferred stock. Strive’s most recent regulatory disclosure indicated a Bitcoin treasury of 26,355 BTC as of September 18. Investors can access Strive’s Bitcoin strategy through both ASST and SATA securities, which are listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Strive continues to accelerate its Bitcoin accumulation strategy at a rapid pace. The firm generated an estimated $85.88 million through SATA preferred stock transactions during a three-day window this week, based on data compiled by BitcoinTreasuries.net.
The proceeds position the company to acquire approximately 1,002 Bitcoin at prevailing market rates. While these figures represent projections rather than confirmed acquisitions, they demonstrate Strive’s continued ability to raise capital even as competitors adopt more conservative approaches.
The fundraising activity spanned September 21 through September 23, with each trading session generating varying amounts of capital.
Breakdown of Capital Raising Activity During the September 21 session, Strive completed the sale of approximately 284,000 SATA shares, generating $27.69 million in net capital. At an average Bitcoin price of $86,001, this amount could support the purchase of roughly 322 BTC.
Strive, Inc., ASST
The middle session on September 22 proved most productive, with around 370,000 shares transacted for $36.08 million in proceeds. This sum could facilitate the acquisition of an estimated 418 BTC at an average cost of $86,266 per coin.
The final session on September 23 yielded $22.11 million from approximately 226,700 shares sold. Based on an average Bitcoin price of $84,556, this capital could cover roughly 261 BTC.
BitcoinTreasuries.net derives these projections by monitoring SATA trading volume when shares trade at or above their $100 par value benchmark. The platform then calculates estimated net proceeds and divides by prevailing Bitcoin prices. While the methodology is calibrated against Strive’s official regulatory submissions, these remain estimates pending company confirmation.
Strive’s most recently verified purchase activity covered the period from September 14 through September 18. During that window, the company acquired 1,355 BTC for approximately $107.7 million, averaging $79,475 per coin. This expanded the firm’s confirmed Bitcoin holdings from 25,000 BTC to 26,355 BTC.
CEO Matt Cole provided additional context regarding the fundraising composition. In a post on X, he noted that warrant exercises contributed $21.2 million, while SATA proceeds accounted for 57.7% of total capital raised during the reporting period.
Contrasting Strategy at Competitor Strategy, which maintains the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, pursued a distinctly different approach during its latest reporting week. The company added 950 BTC through a $75.7 million purchase, paying an average of $79,670 per coin, which brought its cumulative holdings to 846,000 BTC.
However, Strategy simultaneously allocated $174 million toward repurchasing its STRC preferred stock. This buyback activity is particularly significant given that STRC has traded below its $100 par value since June, and the company has not issued new capital through this security in several months.
Strategy financed both the Bitcoin acquisition and stock repurchase from its existing USD cash reserves, which declined from approximately $1.30 billion to $1.05 billion throughout the week. The company reported zero new STRC sales during this timeframe in its SEC disclosure.
Strive, conversely, has maintained continuous utilization of its at-the-market offering program. Additionally, Strive holds a position in Strategy’s preferred stock, owning 505,000 STRC shares with an estimated value of $49.7 million as of September 18.
SATA currently features a 13% annualized dividend rate for the September period. STRC’s corresponding rate stands at 12%, according to each company’s official statements.
Both Strive’s ASST common stock and SATA preferred shares maintain Nasdaq listings. Strategy’s average acquisition cost across its entire 846,000 BTC portfolio calculates to $75,416 per coin, representing a cumulative investment of approximately $63.8 billion.
Strive’s forthcoming SEC filing will confirm whether the projected SATA proceeds from the three-day period were deployed toward additional Bitcoin acquisitions.
