Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

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XRP jumped more than 8% as the crypto market showed some real catch-up energy heading into the July 4th weekend.

According to Santiment, most cryptocurrencies are no longer just watching equities hold up while they lag behind. After weeks of fear, ETF outflows, whale hesitation, and weak sentiment, buyers are finally stepping back in near key support. Most cryptocurrencies, including XRP, are trading higher on July 4.

XRP rose from the $1.02 low on July 1 after being stuck in a range between $1.00 and $1.07 for several days, marking the fourth straight day of gains since that date.

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Profitability indicators forecasted the current XRP rise, with all-time lows recorded for XRP average returns, hinting at a relief rally.

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XRP's 30-day and 365-day MVRV fell to about -45% and -47%, respectively, meaning that both short- and long-term investors are well underwater.

Santiment mentioned that, when taken together, XRP has never seen lower average returns in these timeframes in its more than 12-year trading history, indicating extreme fear. In the last seven days, XRP is up more than 8% as traders interpreted stretched losses as a contrarian signal.

XRP forms golden cross against BitcoinThe recent price increase has allowed XRP to gain strength against Bitcoin, with a golden cross setup appearing on the 2-hour BTC chart.

XRP/BTC 2-Hour Chart, Image By TradingViewThe 2-hour 50 MA has risen above the 200 MA, resulting in a short-term golden cross signal even as bullish momentum increases. XRP saw a sharp spike against Bitcoin in the July 4 session, reversing a downtrend from mid-June. The price remains in the $1 range, trading at $1.14 after hitting a 19-month low of $1.01 back on June 25.

Price disappointment hasn't reduced interest in XRP, on-chain data suggests. This week, the XRP Ledger saw 4,941 new wallets created in one day, the strongest network growth spike in over three months, indicating new users are stepping in despite sluggish price action.

The $1.00–$1.05 range is taken to be a likely dip-buy area, with sentiment reaching a 3-month high in FOMO.

The crypto market had an eventful week between June 29 and July 3, with Bitcoin reclaiming $62,000 while Ethereum moved to $1,700. The meme coin market cap also moved from $22 billion on June 29 to $26 billion on July 4.

Amid these gains, four events stood out that caused volatile price movements not only for crypto prices but also for crypto stocks like Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) and Circle (NYSE: CRCL).

Strategy Unveils a $1.25B BTC Monetization Plan as MSTR Price Soars Strategy released a statement on June 29 saying that the company might sell $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to fund its USD reserve.

The Bitcoin treasury firm also says that part of the money that comes from selling Bitcoin would go towards buying back STRC and MSTR stocks.

This plan by Strategy to monetize $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin saw the price of MSTR stock price move from $85 on June 29 to close trading at $100 on July 2.

MSTR Stock Price The STRC stock price that had caused concerns across the crypto market for crashing to $71 on June 26 also gained by 22% to close trading at $87 on July 2.

Strategy did not buy any Bitcoin in the week between June 29 and July 3. However, data from SaylorTracker shows that the company still holds 847,363 BTC.

Trump Reveals $1.4B in Crypto Market Earnings as Concerns Emerge President Donald Trump disclosed on July 1 that he made $1.4 billion in profits from the crypto market in 2025.

Trump also generated $635 million from the royalties paid out to him for launching the TRUMP meme coin in January 2025.

This financial disclosure raises concerns that the SEC might crack down on meme coin issuers, causing spot DOGE ETFs to post $871,000 in outflows on June 2.

Trump’s disclosure has also made the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 drop to 40% on Kalshi as Senator Elizabeth Warren says that President Trump and his family need to stop benefiting from crypto.

However, Trump maintains that he did not do anything illegal because he has other people who make investments on his behalf.

MiCA Crypto Market Laws Go Live, Locking Out Many Crypto Firms Crypto companies operating in the EU were required to comply with the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) guidelines on July 1, and the Financial Times reported that only 12% of these companies managed to comply before the deadline.

Binance had already urged its users in the EU to take funds out of the exchange after failing to get a MiCA license in Greece.

Coinbase and OKX, which have already received the MiCA license, scrambled to take over the users who were left in limbo after the exit of Binance and offered transfer bonuses of between 5% and 8%.

The ripple effects from the MiCA laws going into effect might continue long past the July 1 deadline, as European fintech giant Revolut says it will delist the USDT stablecoin from its platform on August 1 after Tether’s failure to comply with MiCA.

OUSD Stablecoin Launch Raises Concerns Open Standard announced the launch of the OUSD stablecoin on June 30, saying firms like BlackRock, Ripple, and Coinbase are backing the stablecoin.

The launch sparked competition fears around Circle’s USDC stablecoin, and the price of CRCL stock dropped from $73 to $62 on June 30 when OUSD launched.

CRCL Stock Price However, questions have emerged about OUSD having 140 partners after Samsung and Dunamu said that they are partners despite initial claims.

Germany’s savings and cooperative banks are rolling out crypto trading to retail clients, wiring Bitcoin (BTC) into the apps of institutions that hold roughly 80 million customer relationships in a country of 84 million people.

The Sparkassen serve about 50 million customers, per DSGV data, and the cooperative banks another 30 million, per BVR figures. Both groups dismissed the asset class as too risky just four years ago.

German Banks That Rejected Crypto Trading Now Court MillionsAccording to Bloomberg, both groups are building in-house services rather than steering clients to outside exchanges. DZ Bank’s meinKrypto platform already runs inside the VR Banking App, offering BTC, Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), and Cardano (ADA).

BaFin licensed meinKrypto under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework in late December 2025, per DZ Bank’s announcement. Boerse Stuttgart Digital handles custody, keeping the whole chain under German supervision.

DekaBank is building the equivalent product for the roughly 340 savings banks, with a phased launch later this year. Each of the almost 650 cooperative banks and every Sparkasse opts in individually. DZ Bank product specialist Markus Bärenfänger expects hundreds to join.

Germany’s Local Banks Bring Crypto Trading to Millions in Major Mainstream Adoption PushThe reversal is stark. The savings banks considered crypto trading in 2021, then shelved it over incalculable risks. MiCA has since opened the door for Germany’s largest financial institutions.

Trust Advantage Collides With Total Loss WarningsThe trust math explains the bet. Germans trust their primary bank twice as much as specialized crypto platforms, 38% to 19%, per a Boerse Stuttgart Digital survey. However, only about a quarter have invested in crypto, in line with broader European adoption figures.

That trust is precisely what worries critics. Co-Pierre Georg, professor at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, argues that traditional bank customers may not grasp the risks.

“It is concerning that the floodgates to the cryptocurrency market are now being opened by savings and cooperative banks,” Co-Pierre Georg, professor at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, via Bloomberg.

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Even the savings banks’ own lobby group, DSGV, calls crypto a highly speculative investment carrying the risk of total loss. It frames the service as suitable for self-directed investors only.

Timing sharpens the debate. Bitcoin trades near $62,483 after falling roughly 50% from its October 2025 record of $126,080.

Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoThe German lenders also join a wider European shift. UBS opened crypto trading for private clients in January.

For local banks, the payoff may be relevance rather than revenue. Westerwald Bank chief Ralf Kölbach warns that lenders skipping crypto lose younger, tech-savvy customers.

The bigger test is whether bank-branded credibility can survive the market’s next deep drawdown.

Solana price, which has seen a slight rally to $82 this week, is making many investors wonder if now is the right time to buy. To provide this view on Solana’s recent move, popular crypto analyst VirtualBacon says investors should first look at Bitcoin, not Solana.

While he says Solana at $80 is not a buy because it’s too expensive. Here’s why!

Every Altcoin Starts With BitcoinAccording to VirtualBacon, the biggest mistake investors make is looking at Solana without first analyzing the Bitcoin market. He believes that before deciding whether Solana is a good buy during this bear market, investors first need to understand where Bitcoin stands in its market cycle.

He says that “Altcoins do not lead the bull run, Bitcoin leads.”

For him, Bitcoin’s most important support levels are its 200-week moving average around $62,000 and its Realized Price near $53,000. 

If Bitcoin falls toward these levels, he believes the market will offer much better long term opportunities.

“Before Bitcoin becomes cheap enough in your own analysis, you should not be buying Solana, and you should not be buying any other altcoin.”

He even says, “If Bitcoin gets to $53K, I am all in that because that’s extremely cheap in my analysis.”

Also Read : Can Solana Flip XRP? Detail Analysis

Solana Has To Beat Bitcoin To Be A Worthy BuyVirtualBacon says that buying Solana only makes sense if it can outperform Bitcoin. Otherwise, investors are simply taking extra risk without earning better returns.

To find out Solana’s risk-reward, investors must look at the SOL/BTC chart. During the last market drop in September 2025, Bitcoin fell 54% from its peak, while Solana dropped 76%. 

This means Solana typically falls about 1.4 times more than Bitcoin. Based on this, if Bitcoin drops to around $53,500, Solana could fall to around $65 from its current price level. 

He says that level would make Solana reasonably priced, which has the potential to outperform Bitcoin any day.

Why $80 Is Not a Buy? “Too Expensive”Despite Solana’s recent recovery to above $82, VirtualBacon says $80 is not a good price to buy Solana because it has less room for profit.

“Solana at $80 is not a buy, Too Expensive.”

As per his analysis, Solana will reach around $290 in the next bull market. But buying at $82 offers only about a 3.5x return, while buying near $60 could give around a 4.7x return. 

He says the buying price matters much more for altcoins like Solana than for Bitcoin. 

That’s why he believes investors should wait for Solana to fall below $60, where it would offer a better chance to beat Bitcoin.

VirtualBacon’s Buying PlanRather than chasing the current recovery, VirtualBacon says patience is the better strategy.

“Wait for Bitcoin to go to 53K, make a new low, and then wait for Solana to drop the 1.4x multiple on top of that, and then buy.”

In the end, even warned investors not to expect the massive gains just like we saw in previous cycles, adding,  “I don’t think there is a 10x to be had on Solana anymore.”

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TLDR; US Stock market rally became Trump’s main economic message as he linked gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow to tax cuts and investment. Bitcoin’s move near $62,000 showed how weaker jobs data and lower rate fears can quickly support risk assets after heavy volatility. The Trump economy narrative now connects traditional markets with crypto market sentiment, especially as traders watch Fed policy signals. Policy risk still matters as the CLARITY Act, tariff talks and AI-linked earnings could shape market direction through the second half of 2026. Donald Trump framed the US Stock market rally as evidence that his economic agenda is gaining traction. He said stronger markets, tax cuts, exports and private investment showed the economy had entered a new growth phase. The comments landed as risk assets also improved. 

Bitcoin traded near $62,444, while Ethereum was around $1,624.95 and XRP traded close to $1.059 at last check. The move followed a volatile second quarter, with traders now linking equities, crypto market sentiment and Federal Reserve expectations more closely. It also put Trump’s economic message back at the center of market debate.

US Stock Market Rally Gives Trump A Golden Age Message Trump said the US Stock market rally had delivered the strongest quarter for major indexes since his previous presidency. He pointed to gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average. He also said stronger 401(k) balances were helping households feel the impact of the market rebound. 

"We are the strongest and most powerful country on Earth. And by the grace of God, the United States of America is the most successful, most accomplished, most exceptional nation ever to exist in human history." – President DONALD J. TRUMP 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/bGVSS80bJu

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) July 4, 2026

Market data gives that claim a strong backdrop. According to market data, the S&P 500 gained 14.9% in the second quarter, while the Nasdaq climbed 21.4%. The Dow rose about 13%, marking its biggest quarterly jump since 2022. MarketWatch data shows Dow ended the first half with its strongest performance since 2021. 

Trump tied the Trump economy message to tax cuts for working families, rising exports and a smaller trade gap. He also said trillions of dollars in announced investment were supporting factories, jobs and domestic production. His “Golden Age” framing came as the U.S. prepared to mark its 250th Independence Day.

The US Stock market rally also reflected optimism around earnings and economic growth. Technology and semiconductor shares helped drive the second-quarter advance. Still, the rally has carried valuation concerns, especially as artificial intelligence spending shapes investor expectations across Wall Street.

US Stock Market Rally Links Rates, Crypto and Policy Risk The US Stock market rally received another lift after softer jobs data reduced near-term rate fears. According to reports, the U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, below the 110,000 estimate. Rate-hike expectations for September then fell to 55% from 64.1%, according to CME FedWatch.

That shift also supported the crypto market. Lower borrowing costs usually help risk assets, as traders seek higher-return areas when liquidity expectations improve. Bitcoin’s rebound near $62,000 showed how quickly macro signals can spill into digital assets after a sharp selloff.

A reported 76% correlation between Bitcoin and gold has also kept the hedge debate active. Some investors view both assets as protection against policy uncertainty and inflation risk. Yet Bitcoin still trades with higher volatility than gold, making the comparison useful but limited.

Policy is another driver. Congress is still debating digital asset rules through the CLARITY Act, while institutional crypto adoption expands. The Trump administration has also signaled a friendlier regulatory stance toward the sector. For traders, the next tests include Fed decisions, tariff talks and earnings from AI-linked companies.

Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio has fallen to a 43-month low of -0.35, a figure that signals extreme market-wide loss conditions but has historically coincided with market bottoms, blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant said.

The Bitcoin realized P&L ratio — which measures the net percentage of Bitcoin (BTC) in profit or loss relative to total supply — hasn’t fallen this low since December 2022, shortly after FTX shockingly collapsed and sent Bitcoin below $16,000.

“Historically the indicator has marked BTC bottoms with extreme precision,” CryptoQuant said on Thursday. In 2015 and 2019, the Bitcoin realized P&L ratio also fell below -0.35 before price rallies followed. 

Change in Bitcoin’s P/L ratio since 2012. The data was taken when Bitcoin was trading at $59,000. Source: CryptoQuant

The data could lift market sentiment, which has repeatedly fallen to near-record lows during the course of Bitcoin’s latest 50% drawdown from $126,080, set in October. Market sentiment has risen cautiously over the last 10 days, with Bitcoin up more than 7% since tanking to a near two-year low of $58,190 on June 25.

Many analysts blamed that drop on Strategy — the largest corporate Bitcoin holder — after its top perpetual preferred stock offering, Stretch (STRC), broke from its $100 par value to below $75, raising fears that its dividend model was unsustainable.

On Thursday, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said the STRC incident squeezed out excess leverage and likely moved the market one step closer to a bottom.

“As the market continues to sort things out, I’m convinced the bottom is closer than ever — and that we will enter a new bull market in the fall.”Don’t wait for the bottom, analyst saysSwan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston noted that Bitcoin is currently trading only 16% above the realized price — the network's aggregate on-chain cost basis — a level that has historically coincided with strong forward returns of 41% at six months and 81% at 12 months.

Livingston acknowledged that buying Bitcoin right now “feels awful,” but that’s precisely why it’s trading at a discount, he argued.

“Waiting for ‘the bottom’ is a wonderful plan with one flaw. The bottom never announces itself,” Livingston said, recommending investors buy now rather than overpay at the top.

Magazine: Bitcoin slides to $58K, XRP hits $1 but onchain data promising: Market Moves 

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied, $50 short of $63,000, on July 3, and Ether (ETH) outperformed the wider market, pushing to $1,775. The end-of-week rally comes a few days after BTC fell to a 21-month low and ETH sank to fresh year-to-date lows. Highlighting the negative sentiment, the Crypto Fear & Greed index registered “Extreme Fear” at 11 out of 100. 

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

That gap between the “Extreme Fear” reading and Friday’s bullish market activity is worth noting. On July 2, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) took in a net $221.7 million, their largest single-day inflow since early May and a break from 10 consecutive days of outflows. 

Spot Bitcoin ETF netflows. Source: SoSoValue.com

Futures markets fuel Bitcoin and Ether gainsThe leverage side of the crypto market looks more one-sided than the spot buying data alone would suggest. “Funding,” the periodic payment traders holding bets on higher prices make to traders betting on lower prices when the market leans bullish, has stayed positive for the past eight days and has been climbing throughout this period. 

Bitcoin open interest, funding rate. Source: Hyblock

The total amount of outstanding leveraged Bitcoin positions is also near its highest level in the past several days, even though the price has mostly moved sideways. Leverage building up without price making much progress is generally viewed as a caution sign rather than confirmation that a rally is underway. 

Can bulls keep their pace? Looking at the next few trading sessions, a few reference points stand out. On the cautious side, whether Bitcoin holds above roughly $61,000, where a large cluster of leveraged buy positions sits, matters, and so does whether Wednesday’s ETF inflow turns out to be a one-day event or the start of a new trend. 

On the more encouraging side, a move back above $62,500 would put Bitcoin within reach of price levels where leveraged short positions become more exposed, and continued positive buying activity alongside a still-growing pool of leveraged positions would extend the pattern seen over the past few days. 

Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. One-month view. Source: Hyblock

The overall market read is mixed rather than clearly bullish or bearish. Spot buying and a rebound in ETF flows suggest sentiment may be improving faster than the fear-and-greed number implies, but a market this deeply fearful and this leveraged toward higher prices tends to be more fragile. The upcoming US holiday-weekend stretch of typically thinner trading adds another layer of uncertainty to the current setup.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Bitcoin has edged slightly higher after touching lows near $58,500, but one of the most accurate forecasters of this cycle is not convinced the worst is over. Markus Thielen, Founder and CEO of 10x Research, said this week that the modest recovery is unlikely to hold and that Bitcoin could fall as low as $46,000 to $47,000 before finding its genuine cycle low.

The rest of the article remains unchanged from the previous version, with Thielen’s analysis of ETF outflows, the absence of meaningful buyers, the Elliott Wave targets, the Fed outlook and his comparisons to the 2022 to 2023 cycle all standing as written.

No Real Buyer Anywhere in Sight

Thielen’s bearish near-term view centres on a simple observation: the market has lost its primary source of demand. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, was the single largest buyer of Bitcoin year to date, deploying approximately $13 billion in acquisitions. That buying has slowed significantly. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled approximately $7 billion in net outflows since mid-May, when the first hot inflation report shifted the macro environment against risk assets.

“There’s no real buyer in the market right now,” Thielen said. “That’s why we’re still in this liquidation period from the ETFs.”

He also noted that the average ETF buyer is now significantly underwater, with many of those holders beginning to cut losses around the $60,000 level, adding further selling pressure precisely where the market needs support.

The Path to $46,000 and Back

Thielen’s Elliott Wave analysis maps out a clear structure. Bitcoin completed a five-wave advance from late 2022 into the 2025 high, and the current decline represents the corrective phase. Wave A brought Bitcoin down to approximately $63,000 in February. Wave B produced the counter-trend rally to $82,000 to $83,000. Wave C, the current decline, targets the $46,000 to $47,000 range.

Once that level is reached, Thielen expects a recovery rally of approximately 30% back toward $60,000 to $65,000 by year-end, driven by a shift in Federal Reserve posture as inflation cools and oil prices retreat following the resolution of geopolitical tensions.

The Fed Is the Key Variable

The macro vice gripping Bitcoin tightened significantly when Kevin Warsh was nominated as Fed Chair in late January. Every inflation reading since has reinforced the hawkish case, and markets are now pricing a 70% probability of at least one rate hike before year-end. Until that expectation reverses, Thielen argues, Bitcoin lacks the macro catalyst needed for a sustained move higher.

He draws a direct parallel to 2022 and 2023, where Bitcoin spent months trading sideways between $16,000 and $30,000 before the Grayscale SEC victory in August 2023 finally shifted sentiment. The lesson from that cycle is that bottoms form slowly and sentiment does not turn bullish until well after the low is already in.

When Does the Bottom Form

Thielen’s base case points to a low forming sometime in Q4 2026, possibly around October, consistent with historical bear market timing patterns that suggest cycles typically bottom approximately 360 to 380 days from their peak. He plans to be a buyer below $50,000 and expects Bitcoin to be materially higher by 2027.

Story Ends Here

Trust with CoinPedia:CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.

Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.

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For a while now, Michael Saylor’s Strategy has been on a wild ride of criticism. Now, major players like JPMorgan are beginning to issue some warnings. In fact, the banking giant recently called out Strategy’s Bitcoin sales policy. 

For context, Strategy has long relied on a straightforward business model: Raise capital through debt and equity offerings, then use that money to purchase additional Bitcoin [BTC]. 

As a result, a sizeable amount of the circulating supply was essentially locked away rather than actively traded due to its enormous treasury of 847,363 BTC. However, the company’s most recent capital structure is now altering that dynamic.

Strategy’s new game plan raises red flags To pay dividends on its preferred stock or other financial commitments, Strategy has now formally permitted itself to sell a limited quantity of Bitcoin. At the same time, it authorized preferred stock repurchases and launched a $1 billion common stock buyback program. 

Even though the company’s cash reserves of about $2.55 billion cover about 17 months’ worth of preferred dividends and interest costs, JPMorgan thinks this buffer is still insufficient to completely rule out the possibility of future Bitcoin sales. 

The team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argued,

A higher coverage of 24-36 months would be needed (by issuing common equity to further increase dollar reserves even if this leads to the common equity trading at a discount to NAV) to make investors more comfortable with the idea that Strategy would not need to sell bitcoins in the foreseeable future.

What is the underlying issue? The primary issue is the rise of what JPMorgan refers to as “two-way risk.”

In the past, Strategy operated virtually solely as a Bitcoin buyer, continuously consuming supply whenever it raised new funds. However, under the new framework, the business can switch between buying and selling based on how much cash it needs.

The fact that Strategy is no longer assured of removing Bitcoin from the market—it might even turn into a source of supply when money is needed—introduces uncertainty.

What’s ahead? In fact, in one of the few times the company has sold Bitcoin for operational rather than portfolio adjustments. Even though the $1.25 billion authorized sale capacity only makes up a small portion of its total holdings, the psychological impact could be far greater than the volume of sales. 

Unfortunately, these shifts occur at a time when the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are facing net withdrawals, and the price of Bitcoin is also struggling.

Henceforth, the only hope at this point is the approval of the CLARITY Act. It has the potential to restore market integrity and the price of Bitcoin, in turn improving the air surrounding Strategy.

Final Summary Instead of an actual warning, JP Morgan has suggested a higher coverage of 24-36 months for Strategy. Though the recent sell-off by Strategy was minimal, it has still induced fear and uncertainty in the market. 

Here's what needs to unfold for BTC to break above $65,000.

After several weeks of lackluster performance and a slide to its lowest level since 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) has finally staged a decisive comeback.

The popular analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the resurgence and spotted three bullish factors that could push the price beyond $65,000 in the short term.

The Winning Formula The primary cryptocurrency recently surged past $62,500, fueled by geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East and a long-awaited return of ETF inflows after several weeks dominated by outflows.

The analyst noted that BTC’s 12-hour chart has flashed a cluster of bullish technical cues across several key metrics, suggesting additional upside may be on the horizon. He first pointed out the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator, which has printed a buy signal.

Earlier this week, the analyst emphasized that this metric (when viewed on the monthly timeframe) triggered a synchronized bullish call across BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL.

“Historically, when multiple assets lock in concurrent monthly buy signals, it indicates seller fatigue and a high probability of a long-term market bottom,” he explained.

The second positive sign Martinez touched on is BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has printed a bullish divergence against the underlying price action, while the third is the SuperTrend indicator, which signaled a trend shift.

“If these combined indicators receive validation through sustained spot volume, the immediate target for BTC sits at $65,400 – aligning with the TD setup resistance trendline,” he concluded.

Other Optimistic Voices Numerous market observers share Martinez’s bullish outlook, noting that the cryptocurrency has performed quite well in the current month. X user cyclop, for instance, noted that BTC has historically posted double-digit gains in July during bear markets.

You may also like: Bitcoin Reclaims $60K as SOL, BCH Lead Alts Higher (Market Watch) Why Bitwise’s Matt Hougan Thinks Strategy’s Bitcoin Era Is Fading Bitcoin (BTC) Starts July Under $60K, Cardano (ADA) Finally Rebounds: Market Watch The recent whale behavior also reinforces the positive scenario. X user Max Crypto revealed the case of a big investor who opened a $66 million long on BTC that will be liquidated if the price dips to $59.395.

Whales are known as experienced investors who rarely jump on the bandwagon, relying purely on their instincts, and their actions could infuse enthusiasm among smaller players, prompting them to allocate fresh capital to the ecosystem.

Of course, one must tread carefully and keep in mind that the crypto market remains shaky, meaning a renewed pullback in the short term is just as plausible.

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Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy has vowed to hold his Bitcoin investment even if it falls to zero after revealing he is down millions on a position bought near $100,000.

Summary

Dave Portnoy says he will hold Bitcoin even if it falls to zero after losing millions on his investment. Portnoy admits years of mistimed Bitcoin trades convinced him not to sell during the current downturn. Robert Kiyosaki and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan continue to offer contrasting long-term outlooks for Bitcoin. According to an interview with Fox Business host Stuart Varney, Portnoy admitted that his history with Bitcoin has been defined by buying at the wrong time and selling before major rallies.

Speaking about his latest position, he said he purchased Bitcoin at around $100,000 and acknowledged that the investment is now deeply underwater after the asset lost more than half its value from its October peak of $126,080 to about $62,162.

Bitcoin and crypto are making me sad.

— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) June 4, 2026 Instead of exiting the position, Portnoy said he plans to continue holding. He told Varney that previous attempts to sell Bitcoin had repeatedly backfired because the cryptocurrency rallied soon afterward. Having experienced that pattern multiple times, he said he would rather keep the asset regardless of how far the price falls.

Portnoy also described himself as someone who has been consistently wrong on Bitcoin trades. Looking back on earlier market cycles, he recalled panic-selling the cryptocurrency during a price decline in 2021 before it recovered sharply, adding that those experiences shaped his decision not to sell this time.

Bitcoin outlook remains divided Even as Portnoy remains committed to holding Bitcoin, market participants continue to disagree over where prices could move next.

Earlier this week, as reported by crypto.news, Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki’s prediction that Ethereum could reach $95,000 by mid-2027 resurfaced across crypto social media. Kiyosaki argued that a severe global financial crisis could trigger a major repricing of alternative assets.

Under that scenario, he said Ethereum could climb to $95,000 within a year of such an event, while Bitcoin could rise to $750,000 alongside gold reaching $35,000 per ounce and silver advancing to $200.

A day later, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote that Bitcoin appeared to be entering the final stage of its correction after the STRC-related unwind reduced excess leverage. At the time, he said he expected a new Bitcoin bull market to begin in the fall.

Although he cautioned that identifying the exact bottom is impossible in real time, he said the latest developments suggest the market could be entering the final stage of the current cycle.

Hougan also argued that the next Bitcoin rally is likely to rely less on retail traders and more on institutional investors, including banks, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, financial advisers, and endowments. Based on that view, he said he expects a new Bitcoin bull market to begin in the fall.

Portnoy’s crypto record extends beyond Bitcoin Beyond Bitcoin, Portnoy has been involved with several high-profile crypto projects over the years. He previously promoted the SafeMoon meme coin and publicly identified himself with the Chainlink community, often referred to as the Link Marines.

His trading activity later expanded into Solana-based meme coins. After revealing his wallet address and facing criticism from some traders who accused him of pumping and dumping tokens, Portnoy publicly embraced JAILSTOOL, a meme coin built around imagery of him behind bars. The token later climbed above a $210 million market capitalization and secured a listing on crypto exchange Kraken. Since then, however, it has lost more than 99.5% of its value and now trades at a market capitalization of just over $1 million.

There was a time when a single tweet could move Bitcoin by 10%. When a celebrity endorsement sent token prices through the roof overnight. When "to the moon" counted as an investment thesis for millions of retail crypto investors around the world.

Today, that market has been replaced by more serious, more structural, and more interesting market participants. The next Bitcoin rally will not be driven by narrative. It will be driven by liquidity. And if you don't understand how liquidity moves, you will keep misreading every crypto cycle that follows.

What the Numbers Are Telling UsOver the past eight months, more than $10 billion has moved out of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and that exodus has been a major driver of the downturn we're witnessing. In 2024, inflows into those same ETFs powered Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Institutional capital pulled back, the pillar supporting the rally faded, and retail investors simply did not have the conviction to hold the market up on their own.

Spot ETFs now hold 6-7% of circulating supply, which means every billion dollars of net flow ripples directly into spot prices and through the rest of the crypto market.

Crypto Tracker

TOP COINS (₹)

167,273 (2.31%)

54,338 (1.63%)

5,960,037 (1.41%)

95 (0.25%)

95 (0.21%)

How the Market Grew UpThe 2021 bull run was the last great hype-driven market. Retail FOMO, social media momentum, and speculative excess pushed Bitcoin to its then all-time high. Then came the unravelling of Luna, Celsius, and FTX. Each collapse eroded the casual investor's willingness to act on hype without scrutiny.

At the same time, the market's composition changed underneath it. The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 brought institutional capital into the space through regulated vehicles. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone commands approximately $43 billion in assets under management as of June 2026.

These are investors who allocate based on macro conditions, rate environments, and portfolio construction frameworks with a long-term view, the same forces that move equity and bond markets.

Liquidity Is the Variable That Matters NowEmpirical research shows a significant strengthening in the relationship between global M2 money supply growth and Bitcoin price appreciation, with roughly a 90-day lag and correlation coefficients reaching 0.78 during the 2020-2023 period.

Put simply, when global liquidity expands, Bitcoin goes up. When it contracts, Bitcoin comes under pressure. That three-month lag means the direction of global money supply today is a leading indicator of where Bitcoin is headed next quarter, whether you're watching for it or not.

Stronger-than-expected inflation readings and elevated bond yields have complicated the picture for Federal Reserve policy. Persistent energy price pressures and geopolitical instability now have investors worried that rate cuts could be delayed, and that makes for a less supportive environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.

What the On-Chain Data Is Actually SayingHere is where it gets interesting. Beneath the price weakness, the network is telling us a different story altogether. CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Network Activity Index has climbed steadily since January and recently hit its highest level since late 2024. Daily Bitcoin transactions have crossed 800,000, nearing the highs of the previous bull cycle.

Even the selling pressure from ETF redemptions has not triggered a rush of coins onto exchanges for liquidation, which tells you that some of these outflows are internal portfolio rebalancing, not investors walking away from Bitcoin.

What the Next Rally NeedsAny rotation back into growth positioning would likely pull Bitcoin along with it, re-anchoring the asset to the liquidity backdrop. An ETF flow reversal would provide direct support to prices.

Watch for a softening in Fed language, easing inflation data, and a resolution to the geopolitical tensions that have kept oil prices elevated and rate-cut expectations suppressed. Any one of these could meaningfully improve liquidity conditions, and when liquidity returns, Bitcoin has consistently been among the first assets to reflect it.

The next leg of this cycle will not announce itself through celebrity endorsements or viral posts. It will show up quietly, in ETF flow data, in M2 expansion numbers, and in what the bond market is telling us about where rates are headed.

The investors who stand to benefit most from the next Bitcoin rally are the ones watching the Fed, tracking ETF flows, and understanding that Bitcoin's price today is largely a function of how much capital the global financial system is willing to allocate to risk assets.

(The author Prateek Gupta is Head of Business, Mudrex)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)

Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.

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Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone on the U.S. economy, arguing that stronger economic growth could support both traditional financial markets like US Stock and risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

His comments came as Bitcoin rose 1.99% to trade around $62,583, while Ethereum hovered near $1,751 and XRP traded close to $1.13 following a volatile second quarter.

The latest rally was largely driven by a macro-fueled short squeeze after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data eased investor concerns over additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin is also reportedly showing a 76% correlation with gold, indicating that some investors increasingly view both assets as potential hedges against inflation amid shifting economic expectations.

Trump Says U.S. Economy Is StrengtheningTrump stated that the U.S. stock market had just completed its strongest quarter since his previous administration, pointing to gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average.

"We are the strongest and most powerful country on Earth. And by the grace of God, the United States of America is the most successful, most accomplished, most exceptional nation ever to exist in human history." – President DONALD J. TRUMP 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/bGVSS80bJu

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) July 4, 2026 He argued that rising markets were helping boost Americans’ retirement savings through stronger 401(k) balances while his economic policies continued to support growth.

Trump credited several factors for the economic momentum, including:

Tax cuts aimed at increasing disposable income for working families.A narrowing U.S. trade deficit supported by rising exports.Trillions of dollars in announced investments contributing to factory construction, job creation, and manufacturing expansion.Calling it only the beginning, Trump said:

“The Trump economy is soaring. The Stock Market just completed its BEST QUARTER since the last time he was President. Stocks are surging, exports are rising, the trade deficit is shrinking, and trillions in investment are creating jobs. The Golden Age of America is just getting started.”

Stronger Growth and Lower Rates Could Benefit CryptoTrump also criticized the tendency of markets to react negatively to strong economic data due to inflation concerns.

He argued that stronger economic growth should be welcomed rather than feared and suggested that the Federal Reserve may have room to lower interest rates. Trump also praised former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh while indicating that some policymakers could make future rate cuts more difficult.

Historically, lower borrowing costs have been supportive of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, making Trump’s comments particularly relevant for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market.

Investors Continue Watching Policy DevelopmentsBeyond traditional markets, the Trump administration has become increasingly associated with a more crypto-friendly regulatory approach. Meanwhile, Congress continues to work on major digital asset legislation, including the CLARITY Act, as institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies expands.

The outlook for the second half of 2026 remains constructive for crypto markets if economic growth continues and investor confidence remains strong.

🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST DROPPED: "THE TRUMP ECONOMY IS SOARING! The Stock Market just completed its BEST QUARTER since the last time I was President."

"The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all SURGING, sending Americans’ 401(k)s higher and higher. My Working Families Tax Cuts mean… pic.twitter.com/GvklqaQs7Y

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) July 4, 2026 However, analysts caution that volatility could increase depending on future Federal Reserve decisions, tariff negotiations, and corporate earnings results, particularly from the artificial intelligence sector, which continues to influence broader market sentiment.

Story Ends Here

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In brief Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy said he's down millions of dollars on Bitcoin as the top coin falls. Portnoy admitted he's never gotten anything "more wrong" than the leading cryptocurrency. In 2021 he famously "paperhanded," or panic sold, some of his Bitcoin after a price drop. Barstool Sports founder and media personality Dave Portnoy knows he’s not an expert crypto trader—but that’s never stopped him from trying over and over again for several years now.

This week, Portnoy told Fox Business host Stuart Varney that he’s down millions on Bitcoin, the top crypto asset by market cap, as it has fallen more than 50% from its October all-time high of $126,080 to a recent price of $62,162.

“Yeah, I’ve got regrets,” Portnoy told Varney about his crypto trading experience. “I bought the thing at $100,000, so I mean, right now, I don't know what’s going on.”

Bitcoin and crypto are making me sad.

— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) June 4, 2026

Portnoy provided an honest assessment of his storied history with crypto trading, which includes moments where he “fucking paperhanded,” or panic-sold his Bitcoin in 2021 after a drop in the price. 

“There’s nothing I've been wrong about more than Bitcoin,” he told Varney. “Every time I sell it, it goes nuclear. Every time I buy it, it tanks.”

Despite the consistent downward price action for Bitcoin and other top crypto assets in recent months, Portnoy said this time he’s just holding his ground. 

“I’m just holding. I’ll just hold this thing down to $0,” he said. “I know if I sell it, it’s going to go nuclear again.”

“I’d rather go down with the ship this time,” Portnoy added. 

Portnoy’s crypto history extends beyond Bitcoin, though, previously championing controversial meme coins like SafeMoon (SFM) while also declaring himself a proud member of the Link Marines, a community of investors that support LINK, the native token of the oracle network Chainlink.

Last year, Portnoy got deeper into Solana meme coins, frequently trading in the trenches alongside other risky traders. After doxxing his wallet and earning criticism for allegedly “pumping and dumping” meme coins, Portnoy embraced JAILSTOOL, a meme coin promoted with imagery that depicted his face behind bars. 

“Hey crypto bros, I think whoever made this coin is funny and I want to collect it as a memory of you bitches crying like little babies,” he said. 

The token surged to a market cap above $210 million and earned a listing on centralized exchange Kraken. But as of Friday, the token is down more than 99.5% and trades just above a $1 million market cap.

Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.

The cryptocurrency market is a 24/7 arena filled with constant motion and instant changes. While you’re asleep at midnight, Bitcoin’s price can suddenly surge, or while you’re sitting in a meeting, your favorite altcoin might hit a local bottom. In such a fast-moving market, gaining an edge requires one essential thing: a smart assistant that delivers complete, real-time data without delay. This is exactly where a lightweight yet highly capable app steps in available on both iOS and Android, natively supporting English, Spanish and Turkish, and removing the hassle of mandatory sign-ups: CryptoAppsy.

Everything on a Single ScreenFrom the moment you open the app, you’re greeted with real-time prices for thousands of cryptocurrencies from Bitcoin to the latest newly launched altcoins. CryptoAppsy processes data pulled from global exchanges within milliseconds and delivers automatic updates every 5 seconds. This ensures you never miss arbitrage opportunities and can catch sudden price movements the moment they happen.

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Crypto & USD Earning Opportunities Are Waiting for You!New rewards and surprise opportunities are added to the app every day. You can instantly check today’s special offers on the Deals page and follow regularly refreshed chances to earn crypto and USD. Don’t forget to tap the icon in the top-right corner of the app and check it frequently luck can strike at any moment!

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A News Feed Tailored to Your PortfolioIn the crypto world, information is just as valuable as capital. However, cutting through the noise can be difficult. CryptoAppsy solves this with its integrated News section. The app delivers up-to-date news summaries in the language you’re using Turkish, English, or Spanish curated by experienced editors from dozens of trusted sources and presented in clear, concise formats.

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Additionally, the Live Feed within the News tab lets you follow breaking developments instantly on a single screen. The Weekly Highlights section shows all major upcoming events for the week, clearly indicating the day and time of each. This way, instead of wasting time on social media rumors, you get critical, market-moving information directly from reliable sources without extra effort.

Discover Newly Launched Coins InstantlyThe Index tab features comprehensive crypto market data along with newly listed cryptocurrencies. Coins that are freshly listed on exchanges appear instantly, giving you first-hand access to details such as launch time, price, volume, market capitalization, and even the blockchain they’re built on. By discovering new projects early before prices peak you gain the opportunity to position yourself ahead of the market. Advanced chart views also allow you to review historical data with just a few taps and analyze trends effortlessly.

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What Users Say: A 5.0/5 Rated ExperienceUser feedback clearly confirms the value CryptoAppsy delivers. With ⭐5.0 on the App Store and ⭐4.7 on Google Play, reviews frequently highlight phrases like “perfect for beginners,” “excellent news summaries,” “clean and eye-friendly design,” and “no need for another app.” Many users also note that fast notifications help them act on opportunities without delay. This high satisfaction shows that CryptoAppsy is a reliable and practical solution for both newcomers and active traders alike.

Thanks to its intuitive design, even first-time users can navigate CryptoAppsy without wondering, “What should I do next?” The interface is simple and beginner-friendly, while remaining fast and performance-focused for experienced traders. Its lightweight structure ensures smooth operation even on older devices. There’s no email verification or registration required just download the app and start tracking the market within seconds. Beginners can explore confidently, while professionals benefit from the speed required when milliseconds matter.

Whether you’re preparing to make your first crypto investment or actively trading on a daily basis, CryptoAppsy is the ideal companion for simplifying market complexity and saving you time. With real-time prices, personalized portfolio tracking, smart alerts, clean and live news feeds, and instant access to newly listed coins, CryptoAppsy stands out from the competition. Download CryptoAppsy now from the App Store or Google Play, take control of the crypto market, and start seizing opportunities today.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) held 847,363 BTC as of late June 2026, acquired for approximately $64.1 billion at an average cost basis of $75,651 per coin, making it the largest corporate holder. Bitcoin’s 52% decline from its October 2025 peak of $126,080 exposed the leverage embedded in Saylor’s treasury model, with Strategy reporting a $12.5 billion loss in Q1 2026 alone. Strategy raised $25.3 billion in 2025 through equity offerings and preferred stock instruments, including STRF, STRK, STRC, and STRD, making it the largest U.S. equity issuer that year. Michael Saylor broke his longstanding pledge never to sell Bitcoin when the company made its first-ever BTC liquidation in May 2026, signaling a shift in operational flexibility. JPMorgan warned in July 2026 that Strategy’s concentrated buying could increase volatility, and any forced liquidation could have an outsized impact on Bitcoin’s overall price dynamics. Few corporate strategies have generated more debate than Michael Saylor’s transformation of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) into what he calls a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Since buying its first 21,454 BTC in August 2020, Strategy has accumulated more Bitcoin than any public company or government, SEC filings show. 

With 847,363 BTC as of late June 2026, it controls over 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply, StealthEX confirms. But Bitcoin’s steep decline from its October 2025 peak has raised questions about sustainability. This article examines the mechanics, rewards, risks, and how Saylor’s strategy fits the broader crypto ecosystem.

How the Treasury Model Works Strategy’s approach is built on a capital markets flywheel. The company raises capital through at-the-market (ATM) equity offerings, convertible debt, and perpetual preferred stock, and uses the proceeds to purchase Bitcoin. The company’s Q1 2026 SEC filing disclosed that it held 818,334 BTC as of May 3, 2026, reflecting 22% year-to-date growth. The company raised $11.68 billion in that same period.

Strategy measures performance using a proprietary metric called BTC Yield, which tracks the increase in Bitcoin holdings relative to diluted shares outstanding. The company reported 9.4% BTC Yield year-to-date through Q1 2026. 

Michael Saylor has described the strategy as stretching Bitcoin from a nonyielding asset into a capital-markets engine, CoinDesk reported at an April 2026 Mizuho event. Strategy’s preferred stock product STRC carries an 11.5% yield, which the company considers well below Bitcoin’s expected long-term appreciation rate.

The BTC Yield metric obscures a critical dynamic: it measures Bitcoin accumulation relative to diluted shares, but dilution itself has been extreme. Fortune reported in February 2026 that Strategy’s Class A common shares outstanding grew from 76 million in mid-2020 to approximately 314 million by February 2026, an increase of 313%. 

No other major U.S. company has diluted shareholders at anywhere near this rate. This means existing shareholders are receiving more Bitcoin per share, but each share represents a smaller piece of the overall company.

The Risks Materializing in 2026 Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, and by late June 2026, it had fallen over 52% to approximately $58,500. With an average cost basis of approximately $75,651, Strategy has roughly $14 billion in unrealized losses at current prices.

In May 2026, Saylor broke his longstanding pledge never to sell Bitcoin. Strategy executed its first-ever BTC liquidation, a small sale relative to total holdings, BYDFi reported. The sale was modest, but it shattered the narrative of unconditional accumulation that had underpinned investor confidence.

JPMorgan issued a warning in early July 2026 that Strategy’s concentrated buying could lead to increased volatility and market instability, Phemex reported. The bank cautioned that any liquidation could have outsized impacts on Bitcoin’s price.

Broader pressure compounded: $2.8 billion left spot Bitcoin ETFs in nine consecutive sessions through late May 2026, the longest withdrawal streak since their 2024 debut, Axios reported.

The Reward Case: What Has Worked Despite the drawdown, Saylor’s strategy created significant value over its five-year run. Strategy’s stock appreciated over 1,000% from pre-Bitcoin levels at the peak. The model inspired copycat treasury strategies, including Strive, whose CEO Matt Cole disclosed 14,557 BTC as of April 2026, CoinDesk reported.

Saylor’s thesis received indirect validation from the U.S. government. The White House announced a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, lending government weight to the argument that Bitcoin can sit alongside gold on national balance sheets.

At the Bitcoin 2026 conference, Saylor argued that as capital flows into the Bitcoin network, the price should increase, and outlined conditions under which Bitcoin could eventually reach $10 million per coin.

TD Securities maintained a buy rating on Strategy with a $500 price target, citing the company’s $2.25 billion cash reserve as a buffer against a prolonged crypto winter, The Block reported. Understanding the interplay between Bitcoin treasury strategies and broader market dynamics is essential for evaluating whether the reward thesis still holds.

Regulatory Implications Strategy faces regulatory scrutiny on multiple fronts, and the SEC has reviewed its accounting under ASU 2023-08, which requires fair-value measurement and recognizes price changes in net income.

Strategy urged MSCI to reject a proposal to bar companies with over 50% of their assets in crypto from equity benchmarks. Pending U.S. market structure legislation could reshape how corporate Bitcoin treasuries are reported.

What’s Next? Strategy’s near-term trajectory is tethered to Bitcoin’s price. If Bitcoin recovers toward its cost basis, the model’s leverage amplifies gains. If it declines further, the company faces growing pressure on its preferred stock dividends and potential credit downgrades. Saylor’s 42/42 Plan aims to raise $84 billion over two years to continue accumulating Bitcoin, TradingKey reported. 

Whether capital markets remain willing to fund that ambition at current prices is the central question. Projections about Bitcoin’s future price are speculative and should not be treated as forecasts. The leveraged model carries the risk of substantial loss if sustained weakness forces sales at depressed prices.

FAQs How much Bitcoin does Strategy own?
Strategy held 847,363 BTC as of late June 2026, acquired for approximately $64.1 billion at an average cost basis of $75,651, representing more than 4% of total supply.

What is BTC Yield?
BTC Yield is Strategy’s proprietary metric measuring the percentage increase in Bitcoin holdings per diluted share, designed to show value creation for shareholders over time.

Has Michael Saylor ever sold Bitcoin?
Yes, Strategy executed its first-ever Bitcoin sale in May 2026, breaking Saylor’s longstanding pledge never to sell, though the amount was small relative to total holdings.

What is the 42/42 Plan?
The 42/42 Plan is Strategy’s goal to raise $84 billion over two years through equity and debt offerings to fund continued Bitcoin accumulation at unprecedented institutional scale.

What risks does Strategy’s model face?
Key risks include Bitcoin price declines below cost basis, extreme shareholder dilution, preferred stock dividend obligations, potential forced liquidation, and regulatory or accounting changes.

What did JPMorgan warn about Strategy?
JPMorgan warned in July 2026 that Strategy’s concentrated Bitcoin buying could increase market volatility and that any forced liquidation could disproportionately impact Bitcoin’s price.

Is Strategy’s Bitcoin strategy financial advice?
No, Strategy’s model is a corporate treasury strategy with substantial leverage and concentration risk that may not be appropriate for individual investors with different risk profiles.

References Strategy Inc. “Q1 2026 Financial Results 8-K Filing.” SEC. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001050446/000105044626000024/mstr-20260505x8kxex991.htm CoinDesk. “Michael Saylor Says Bitcoin Has Likely Bottomed.” April 2026. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/08/michael-saylor-says-bitcoin-has-likely-bottomed-quantum-risk-overblown Fortune. “When Bitcoin Prices Turned Against Michael Saylor.” February 2026. https://fortune.com/2026/02/20/michael-saylor-bitcoin-prices-preferred-shares-dilution-strategy/ Axios. “Bitcoin Faces Mounting Pressure Beyond Strategy Sale.” June 2026. https://www.axios.com/2026/06/03/bitcoin-saylor-strategy-stocks

United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on July 2, 2026, their strongest single-day intake since early May and the first session above $200 million in nearly two months. 

The result snapped a 10-day streak of net outflows that drained more than $2.7 billion from the funds, according to SoSoValue data. The rebound follows a record $4.5 billion in net outflows across all spot Bitcoin ETFs during June, the worst monthly performance on record for the product category.

FBTC Absorbs 75% of the Day’s Inflows Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund led the recovery with $166 million in net inflows, accounting for roughly 75% of the day’s total, according to Farside Investors data. ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF followed with $91.8 million in net inflows, while VanEck’s HODL and Valkyrie’s BRRR attracted $4.4 million and $1.7 million, respectively.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF by assets under management, continued to shed capital. IBIT posted $40.4 million in net outflows on the same day, extending an 11-session outflow streak that has cost the fund more than $2.2 billion since June 17, 2026. 

No other fund recorded outflows on the session, making BlackRock the sole drag on an otherwise uniformly positive day. The contrast between Fidelity’s gains and BlackRock’s losses was the sharpest single-day divergence between the two funds this year.

Why the FBTC and IBIT Paths are Diverging Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, suggested in a client memo that the broader market could be nearing a bottom amid what he described as late-cycle dynamics. Bitcoin reclaimed the $61,000 level after briefly falling below $59,000 earlier in the week, according to CoinGecko data.

The divergence between FBTC and IBIT is notable because it may signal a structural rotation rather than fresh capital entering the space. Fidelity has now led inflows on three of the past five positive-flow sessions, a pattern that did not exist earlier in 2026. 

If Fidelity continues to absorb the bulk of new inflows during recovery sessions while BlackRock bleeds, it would mark a meaningful shift in the competitive dynamics of a product category that BlackRock has dominated since the launch of spot ETFs in January 2024. Fee differences, redemption mechanics, and institutional mandate preferences could all play a role in the rebalancing.

Altcoin ETFs Gain Alongside Bitcoin The recovery extended beyond Bitcoin in the same session. US spot Ether ETFs attracted $29.1 million in net inflows, following $14.9 million the prior session. XRP ETFs also returned to net inflows at $6.6 million after two consecutive sessions of outflows. 

The breadth of the rebound across multiple asset classes suggests the capital rotation was not limited to Bitcoin alone. The global crypto market cap climbed 2.4% to $2.22 trillion over the prior 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. 

Despite the rebound in inflows, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index from Alternative.me registered an extreme fear reading on July 3, 2026. That disconnect between improving fund flows and deeply negative sentiment has historically preceded volatile short-term price action in either direction.

Is There a Bullish or Bearish Signal for Bitcoin Right Now? An Analysis Firm Gave a Clear Answer

The technical outlook for Bitcoin remains weak, signaling continued downward pressure across the market. However, several long-term indicators show similarities to the bottom phases of previous bear cycles. As of July 3, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $61,848. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has risen 0.84%, recording a daily trading volume of $36.14 billion and a market capitalization of $1.25 trillion.

Key indicators echo past market bottomsCrypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlights that Bitcoin’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to its lowest point ever recorded over BTC’s trading history. The RSI is widely used to assess the strength of price movements. Historically, extremely low RSI values have often coincided with periods near market bottoms.

Glossary: RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a technical indicator that measures the speed and direction of price movements. Readings below 30 are considered oversold, while those above 70 indicate overbought. The MACD, meanwhile, tracks momentum shifts via the relationship between short and long-term moving averages.

According to van de Poppe, this month’s monthly RSI level is even lower than those observed during previous bear market lows. He considers this a sign that Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of its most intense periods, and believes the current price zone aligns with past cycle bottoms.

Van de Poppe emphasizes that the monthly RSI has dropped to its lowest in Bitcoin’s history, reflecting similarly weak momentum to what was seen during major market bottoms in the past.

Selling pressure persists on weekly timeframesVan de Poppe also draws attention to the weekly RSI, which slipped below the 30 level this year. According to the analyst, a comparable scenario had only occurred during the sharp sell-off of 2022. The recent push towards lower price levels has likewise mirrored that period’s market structure.

On the weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, Bitcoin has shown its most pronounced negative expansion to date, reinforcing the momentum behind selling. Van de Poppe notes that several on-chain metrics, too, are converging towards readings previously seen during bear market lows.

The largest negative expansion seen on the weekly MACD reflects continued strong selling pressure, while certain on-chain signals also recall those apparent near earlier market bottoms.

Focus remains on the $57,500–$62,000 support zoneDespite the overall weakness, Bitcoin continues to hold above a major support region. Based on the MA Ribbon, BTC is now priced at $61,893. This level sits below the 20-week moving average at $70,032, the 100-week average at $88,384, and the 200-week average at $88,580.

Additionally, Bitcoin is trading close to the 50-week moving average at $62,652, which is seen as a significant near-term support. A move above the 20-week average at roughly $70,000 would be a positive technical development for the asset.

IndicatorLevelCurrent price$61,84850-week moving avg$62,65220-week moving avg$70,032Lower support region$57,500Traders closely watch volatility bands and supportBollinger Bands also suggest that selling pressure has not completely dissipated. The upper band is placed at $82,551, the middle band at $70,032, and the lower band at $57,513. With BTC’s price trading closer to the lower band, the market remains cautious.

If buyers manage to hold the $57,500 level, there is potential for Bitcoin to retest the middle band near $70,000. However, a sustained loss of this support could bring renewed downward pressure on BTC. Whether the $57,500–$62,000 zone holds and if a recovery to $70,000 is possible will be the key focal points for market watchers in the coming weeks.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Can the Major Bitcoin Bull Strategy Recover From Here, or Are There Warning Signs?

Two AI Models, One Uncomfortable Consensus@grok and @claudeai were each asked, in their top research modes, to give a single Bitcoin price target for December 31st. Neither would commit. SuperGrok's synthesis landed on a base case of $75,000 to $85,000, with a plausible range spanning $55,000 to $100,000-plus. Claude's Fable 5 placed its probability mass between $70,000 and $90,000, with a full range of $55,000 to $110,000. Two different systems, two different methodologies, and nearly identical answers.

Both models took the same position on why: the spread across real analyst forecasts, anywhere from a $25,000 to $50,000 bear floor to $150,000-plus bull targets, tells you more than any single number ever could. That view is consistent with what broader AI forecast experiments have found. Models tend to cluster around cautious ranges rather than bold calls, mapping uncertainty rather than resolving it.

When AI Gets the Facts WrongThere was one notable slip worth flagging. Fable 5 cited Citi's current base case as $143,000 for $BTC. That figure is outdated. Citi had already lowered its Bitcoin target from $143,000 to $112,000 earlier in 2026. Then, on July 1st, the bank cut again. Citi reduced its 12-month price target for Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000. In a bear case scenario, the bank values Bitcoin at $53,000 over the next year.

Citi said it was forced to lower its forecasts due to three factors: lower investor appetite, ETF outflows, and a lack of progress on U.S. crypto legislation. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, their worst month since the products launched in January 2024. The AI model was working from a stale data point, which is a reminder that even sophisticated frontier models require source verification when applied to fast-moving markets.

The broader takeaway from the experiment is straightforward. Both AI models, drawing on wide bodies of analyst research, converged on a $70,000 to $90,000 zone as the weighted center of gravity for Bitcoin by year-end. That range happens to sit close to Citi's revised $82,000 base case. Nobody knows. But that is roughly where the probability mass lands once you strip out the noise at both extremes.

Sources
Citi cuts Bitcoin and Ether targets as ETF outflows deepen (Crypto.news)
Citi drastically slashes Bitcoin, Ether price targets (TheStreet)
14 AI Models Including Claude, ChatGPT and Grok Predict Bitcoin's Price Outlook (Bitcoin.com News)

Reiterating its long-standing opposition to cryptocurrency legalization, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) told the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance that virtual digital assets (VDAs), like Bitcoin [BTC] and other cryptocurrencies, pose serious risks to India.

The RBI asserts that because crypto assets function outside the established banking system and are therefore challenging to regulate and oversee, they have the potential to jeopardize financial stability.

The central bank also cautioned that since many trading platforms and service providers are based abroad and are unavailable to Indian regulators, cryptocurrencies can help with illegal activities like money laundering, narcotics trafficking, and financing terrorism.

Additionally, the RBI also mentioned during the meeting that European jurisdictions only allow digital assets under stringent regulatory frameworks. They even cited nations like China and Qatar that have completely banned crypto-related activities. 

The ICAI shares a different viewpoint On the other hand, the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) adopted a different position and advocated for the implementation of a thorough legal framework for VDAs rather than a prohibition.

To increase transparency and regulatory oversight, the ICAI stated that it could assist in the development of accounting standards, financial reporting principles, and compliance guidelines.

Accounting and Auditing for VDAs ICAI can undertake comprehensive research on the various forms of VDAs and analyse their economic characteristics. Based on such research, ICAI may develop detailed guidance on their recognition, measurement, presentation, and disclosure in financial statements.

This dual opinion comes as India’s government continues to tax cryptocurrency transactions without giving them legal status. 

Even though the nation’s current crypto tax system is unaltered, AMBCrypto recently reported that India’s Union Budget 2026 established a more stringent compliance framework for the crypto industry by recommending fines for organizations that neglect to notify tax authorities of crypto-asset transactions. 

Why does the RBI consider cryptocurrency a threat?  This comes after a two-quarter slowdown in retail cryptocurrency trading activity, which dropped to $979 billion in Q1 2026, an 11% year-over-year decline from Q1 2025, according to TRM Labs data.  

Source: TRM Labs Meanwhile, TRM Labs data also showed that the first half of 2026 saw a record 207 security breaches in the crypto industry, the most TRM Labs has ever tracked in a six-month period.

The total losses, however, dropped precipitously to $972 million, less than half of the $2.3 billion that was stolen during the same period in 2025, despite the spike in attack frequency. 

Source: TRM Labs Remarking on this, Ari Redbord, Global Head of Policy at TRM Labs, said 

The underlying threat has not diminished. In fact, it has gotten more sophisticated and more dangerous.

This proves that though the cryptocurrency market has changed from being a speculative, retail-driven area to becoming a more institutional ecosystem, 2026 has been one of its most challenging years.

Events like security breaches, tighter liquidity, geopolitical tensions, regulatory uncertainty, and lower retail participation have slowed investor sentiment and market activity.

Final Summary The RBI and ICAI share polar opposite suggestions on cryptocurrency operation in India. The rise in scams and a slowdown in retail activity might be the reason behind this stringent rules recommendation in India.