Bitcoin, beklentilere paralel gelen ABD enflasyon verisinin ardından 63.500 dolar seviyesine geriledi. Temmuz enflasyonunun tahminlerle uyumlu açıklanması piyasalardaki endişeleri azalttı ancak kripto para piyasasında güçlü bir yükseliş başlatmaya yetmedi.
Bitcoin son 24 saatte yüzde 0,5’in üzerinde değer kaybederken haftalık kaybı yaklaşık yüzde 2’ye ulaştı. Büyük kripto paraların çoğu da günü düşüşle geçirirken piyasanın dikkati şimdi Fed’in önündeki yeni ekonomik verilere çevrildi.
Bitcoin Neden Yükselmedi? Temmuz ayı enflasyon verisi beklentileri büyük ölçüde karşıladı. Manşet enflasyon aylık bazda yüzde 0,1, yıllık bazda yüzde 3,4 arttı. Gıda ve enerji fiyatlarını dışarıda bırakan çekirdek enflasyon ise aylık yüzde 0,2 yükseldi ve yıllık bazda yüzde 2,5’e geriledi.
Veri, ABD Merkez Bankası’nın eylül ayında yeni bir faiz hamlesi yapmak için acele etmek zorunda olmadığı beklentisini güçlendirdi. Vadeli işlem piyasalarında eylül ayında faiz artırımı ihtimali yüzde 46’dan yaklaşık yüzde 38’e geriledi.
Ancak Bitcoin için sorun tam da burada ortaya çıktı. Veri piyasalarda yeni bir risk yaratmadı fakat güçlü bir pozitif sürpriz de sunmadı.
CF Benchmarks Araştırma Başkanı Gabe Selby, CoinDesk’e yaptığı değerlendirmede Bitcoin’in özellikle enflasyon verilerinin faiz beklentilerini değiştirdiği dönemlerde daha sert hareket ettiğini söyledi.
Selby’ye göre son dokuz enflasyon açıklamasında verinin beklentilerin altında kaldığı üç durumda Bitcoin ortalama yüzde 3,25 yükseldi. 14 Temmuz’daki aşağı yönlü sürprizin ardından ise Bitcoin yüzde 4,24 değer kazandı.
Bu kez ise piyasa böyle bir sürpriz görmedi.
Bitcoin Fiyatını Etkileyebilecek 3 Kritik Veri Sırada Selby, enflasyon verisinin Fed’e beklemek için alan bıraktığını düşünüyor. Barınma maliyetleri yüzde 0,1 artarken enerji fiyatları yüzde 1,5, benzin fiyatları ise yüzde 2,9 geriledi. Bazı mal kategorilerinde de geçen yılki gümrük vergilerinden kaynaklanan artışların yıllık karşılaştırmayı etkilemesi sona eriyor.
Bitcoin açısından sıradaki önemli sınavlar ise ayın ilerleyen günlerindeki Jackson Hole toplantısı, 4 Eylül’de açıklanacak istihdam verisi ve 11 Eylül’deki yeni enflasyon raporu olacak.
Dolayısıyla piyasa için asıl soru artık yalnızca enflasyonun beklentileri karşılayıp karşılamadığı değil. Fed’in gelecek dönemde faiz politikasını nasıl şekillendireceği önemini koruyor.
Kripto Piyasasında Bitcoin Dışında Hangi Coinler Düştü? Bitcoin’deki zayıf görünüm diğer büyük kripto paralara da yansıdı. Ether yaklaşık yüzde 1 gerileyerek 1.880 dolara indi. Solana yüzde 1’in altında düşerek 76 doların altına çekildi.
BNB yüzde 1’in üzerinde değer kaybederek 610 dolara gerilerken XRP yaklaşık yüzde 1 düştü ve 1 dolar seviyesine indi. XRP’nin haftalık kaybı ise yaklaşık yüzde 5’e ulaştı.
Dogecoin de yaklaşık yüzde 3 gerileyerek 7 sente düştü.
Piyasadaki sınırlı yükselişlerden biri Hyperliquid’in HYPE tokenında görüldü. HYPE yüzde 3’ün üzerinde yükselerek 56 dolara çıkarken haftalık bazda yatay kaldı. Tron ise sınırlı bir artışla 34 sente yaklaştı ve son yedi günde yaklaşık yüzde 2 yükseldi.
ABD Enflasyonu Sonrası Piyasalarda Neler Oldu? ABD enflasyon verisinin ardından küresel hisse senedi piyasalarında daha olumlu bir tablo oluştu. MSCI Asya Pasifik endeksi yaklaşık yüzde 1 yükselirken Samsung Electronics ve SK Hynix yükselişe en fazla katkı sağlayan şirketler arasında yer aldı.
Güney Kore’nin Kospi endeksi ise yaklaşık yüzde 4 yükselerek teknik boğa piyasasına girdi ve yalnızca 10 günde yüzde 22 değer kazandı.
Ancak piyasalardaki iyimserlik tamamen genele yayılmadı. Cisco hisseleri beklentilerin altında kalan sonuçların ardından mesai sonrası işlemlerde yüzde 4’ten fazla geriledi. Cerebras Systems ise donanım satışlarındaki düşüşün etkisiyle yüzde 17 değer kaybetti.
Petrol piyasasında da hareketlilik devam etti. Brent petrol, 90 dolar seviyesine taşıyan altı günlük yükseliş serisinin ardından geriledi.
Bitcoin ise şimdilik güçlü bir katalizör bekliyor. Temmuz enflasyonunun beklentilerle uyumlu gelmesi piyasadaki önemli bir riski azalttı ancak kripto para piyasasını yeni bir yükseliş dalgasına taşımaya yetmedi.
Bu içerik genel piyasa verilerine dayanır ve yatırım tavsiyesi değildir. Kendi araştırmanızı yapmanızı öneririz.
Son Dakika kripto para haberleri için hemen tıkla.
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Key Highlights GSR’s Core3 portfolio model increased Solana’s weighting to 43.6%, establishing it as the dominant position. Bitcoin’s allocation dropped to 16.9%, representing its lowest share among the three major assets tracked. Ethereum’s weighting decreased to 39.5% following its top position the previous week. Solana delivered a 2.98% gain over the seven-day period, surpassing both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Recent weeks have seen Morgan Stanley and 21Shares introduce U.S.-based Solana exchange-traded products. On August 12, GSR implemented a significant rebalancing of its Core3 model portfolio, elevating Solana’s position to 43.6% — establishing it as the portfolio’s largest holding — while simultaneously reducing Bitcoin’s share to a mere 16.9%.
GSR Model Makes Solana Top Allocation to 43.6%, Cuts Bitcoin to 16.9%
GSR’s Core3 model portfolio raised its Solana allocation to 43.6%, making SOL its largest position, while cutting Ether to 39.5% and Bitcoin to just 16.9%, as the model’s relative alpha signals shifted further… pic.twitter.com/C0aRl77W4h
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 13, 2026
This adjustment marks a notable shift from the previous week’s positioning. As of August 5, the portfolio allocated 36.5% to Solana, 44.1% to Ether, and 19.3% to Bitcoin. In just one week, Solana’s weighting jumped 7.1 percentage points, while Ether declined by 4.6 points and Bitcoin fell by 2.4 points.
According to GSR, the rebalancing decision stemmed from the firm’s proprietary relative alpha signals, which indicated stronger short-term momentum prospects for Solana. The company emphasized that Core3 functions as a model framework designed for institutional investors and does not constitute direct investment advice.
During the seven-day measurement period, Solana delivered the strongest performance with a 2.98% return. In contrast, Bitcoin declined 1.02%, while Ether experienced a modest 0.20% decrease.
Solana (SOL) Price When examining the 30-day timeframe, Ether emerged as the top performer with a 7.88% gain. Bitcoin delivered a 3.19% return while Solana recorded a 2.44% increase over the same interval.
How Core3 Has Performed The Core3 model generated a 0.85% return over the weekly period and 5.30% monthly. These results exceeded the equal-weighted benchmark portfolio, which delivered 0.59% and 4.68% returns across the same timeframes.
Looking at extended horizons, Core3 continues to show negative performance. The model is down 35.58% for the year to date and has declined 70.28% over a twelve-month span. Meanwhile, the equally weighted basket shows losses of 32.22% and 63.44% across those identical periods.
Current 30-day volatility measurements stand at 26.82% for Bitcoin, 39.75% for Ether, and 35.26% for Solana. GSR observed that Solana’s trading volume has declined across both seven and 30-day measurement windows, indicating that the increased allocation wasn’t accompanied by heightened trading activity.
New Solana Investment Vehicles in U.S. Markets This portfolio adjustment coincides with expanding regulated Solana access for American investors. On July 28, Morgan Stanley introduced the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust (MSOL) on NYSE Arca, featuring a 0.14% expense ratio. The trust is permitted to stake up to 100% of its SOL holdings under standard operating conditions.
Additionally, 21Shares submitted a filing on July 27 announcing it would eliminate the 0.21% sponsor fee on its TSOL product for a one-year period beginning July 28.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) provided technical analysis on SOL’s price action, stating his preference to see Solana maintain its pattern of higher lows. He identified the $73.50–$74 range as a critical support zone that needs to hold. Should that support level remain intact, he maintains price targets approaching $120.
Quite clearly you'd want to see $SOL continue to be printing higher lows.
In that regard, I think it's important to hold the $73.5-74 area for support.
If that happens, the targets to $120 remain intact. pic.twitter.com/yKALiRlAHF
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 11, 2026
GSR releases Core3 updates on a weekly basis. Bitcoin’s model allocation has fluctuated from 9.2% on July 15 to 19.3% on August 5, before declining to 16.9% in the most recent August 12 update.
Digital asset trading firm GSR has significantly increased Solana‘s weighting to 43.6% in its Core3 model portfolio, making the asset the largest position among its three key holdings. In the same move, GSR reduced Bitcoin‘s share to 16.9%, which is the lowest level recorded for the cryptocurrency within Core3 since its inception.
Solana overtakes Ether and Bitcoin in portfolio allocationThe shift follows a notable rebalancing on August 12. In the preceding week, Core3 allocated 36.5% to Solana, 44.1% to Ethereum, and 19.3% to Bitcoin. Solana’s share rose sharply in just seven days, overtaking both of its counterparts. Meanwhile, Ether’s allocation slipped to 39.5%, falling from the top position, and Bitcoin saw a reduction of 2.4 percentage points.
GSR attributed these changes to proprietary relative alpha signals, which point to strong short-term momentum favoring Solana. The Core3 model, designed as an institutional framework, does not provide direct investment advice, the company emphasized.
GSR’s positioning reflects its view that Solana currently demonstrates a relative performance edge, based on alpha signals and recent market momentum.
During the latest seven-day period, Solana recorded a 2.98% gain, outperforming competitors. In contrast, Bitcoin fell 1.02% and Ether slipped 0.20% over the same span.
On a 30-day basis, Ether was the leading asset, returning 7.88%. Bitcoin gained 3.19%, and Solana was up 2.44% through the same interval.
AssetCurrent Weight1-Week Return30-Day ReturnSolana43.6%+2.98%+2.44%Ethereum39.5%-0.20%+7.88%Bitcoin16.9%-1.02%+3.19%Recent performance and volatilityThe Core3 model produced a 0.85% gain over the last week and a 5.30% return for the month, surpassing its equal-weighted benchmark, which posted 0.59% and 4.68% in the respective periods.
Despite these short-term gains, Core3’s annual and twelve-month performances are negative. Year to date, the model is down 35.58%, while over the past twelve months, it has declined 70.28%. The equal-weighted portfolio also remains in negative territory, though losses there are slightly lower.
PortfolioYTD Return12-Month ReturnCore3-35.58%-70.28%Equal-Weighted-32.22%-63.44%Volatility measurements for the past 30 days showed Bitcoin at 26.82%, Ether at 39.75%, and Solana at 35.26%. GSR observed that Solana’s trading volume declined during both the seven- and 30-day periods, indicating that the increased portfolio weight was not matched by higher trading activity.
New Solana investments in US marketsThis portfolio change comes as regulated Solana products expand their presence in the US market. Morgan Stanley, one of the world’s leading investment banks, introduced the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust (MSOL) on NYSE Arca on July 28. The trust features a 0.14% expense ratio and allows up to 100% of its SOL holdings to be staked, providing investors with both price exposure and potential staking rewards.
On July 27, 21Shares announced that it would eliminate its 0.21% sponsor fee for its TSOL product for one year, starting from July 28.
Crypto market analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted his preference to see Solana maintain its trend of higher lows and cited the $73.50–$74 support zone as a critical area. If this level holds, van de Poppe expects $120 to remain a plausible near-term target for SOL.
Michaël van de Poppe highlighted that holding the $73.50–$74 support area is essential for maintaining the current upward trend in Solana, with upside targets near $120 if the pattern continues.
GSR, founded in 2013, is a global crypto market maker that provides liquidity, investment, and risk management solutions to the digital asset industry. The company issues weekly updates on its Core3 portfolio, tracking Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana allocations. Since July, Bitcoin’s weighting in the Core3 model has ranged from 9.2% to 19.3% before moving to a current low of 16.9%.
Mini dictionary: GSR, established in 2013, is a digital asset trading company offering liquidity services, market making, and portfolio modeling to institutions operating in the cryptocurrency space.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The U.S. consumer price index for July delivered exactly what forecasters expected, and for crypto traders, the absence of a macro shock was the story. Headline CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, the same as projections and a tick below the prior 3.5%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, landed at 2.5% annually, matching estimates and easing from 2.6% the month before. The numbers, sourced from the original report, produced no immediate volatility spike in digital asset markets, but they left plenty of questions about the Federal Reserve’s timeline unanswered.
A 0.2% monthly rise in seasonally adjusted core CPI and a 0.1% uptick in headline CPI were both spot on with expectations. For a crypto market that has grown accustomed to sudden macro-driven selloffs, an in-line reading was a reprieve, not a catalyst. Bitcoin and top altcoins barely budged in the minutes after the release, reflecting a broader wait-and-see posture that has defined recent weeks. Traders who had positioned for a hotter print were forced to unwind, but no euphoric buying followed. The data simply pushed the narrative forward by a month without altering the fundamental picture: inflation is drifting lower, but not fast enough to force the Fed’s hand.
Predictable data, unpredictable policy Inflation at 2.5% core is still above the central bank’s comfort zone, and the July figure doesn’t scream for immediate rate cuts. For crypto, that means the liquidity environment stays tight. Capital that might otherwise flow into risk assets remains parked in higher-yielding safe havens, and the cost of leverage for institutional players stays elevated. The steady macro background has, however, allowed a parallel trend to mature: the tokenization of real-world assets has quietly scaled, with on-chain RWA value crossing the $20 billion mark recently, as discussed in a weekly tokenization roundup. Stable inflation data doesn’t directly cause that growth, but it prevents the sudden rate shocks that can unravel long-term infrastructure bets.
The market’s muted response also underscores how much of the Fed’s path is already priced in. Rate futures show conviction for a hold in September, and the July CPI print did little to shift those odds. Crypto markets have decoupled from the day-to-day noise of CPI revisions over recent months, instead tracking real-time liquidity signals and regulatory rumblings. The risk is that this complacency breaks if the Fed signals a prolonged pause or, worse, hints at further tightening if inflation proves sticky. Neither scenario is out of the question with core services still running hot in some segments.
Developer activity hums along despite macro fog While traders parse each data point, build metrics tell a quieter story. Developer activity across major blockchains has held up even in this uncertain rate environment. Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Polygon continue to dominate weekly commits, as noted in a developer activity snapshot. That resilience matters. When macro conditions keep price action rangebound, the underlying health of networks becomes the differentiator. Protocols that ship updates and attract builders during flat periods tend to lead when liquidity eventually returns.
What remains unsettled is the interplay between inflation and regulatory momentum. The same macroeconomic forces that keep the Fed cautious also shape political appetite for crypto oversight. A prolonged high-rate environment strains budgets and can intensify the hunt for new tax revenue or stricter enforcement in digital assets. That linkage is indirect but real, and it helps explain why even a perfectly predicted CPI print doesn’t remove the ceiling on sentiment.
For the next few weeks, attention shifts to the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium and the August employment report. Any sign of labor market weakness could quickly reprice rate expectations—and by extension, crypto valuations. Today’s data bought time, not certainty.
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Jide Idowu is a skilled freelance writer with expertise in blockchain technology, cryptocurrency, and digital finance. Known for his ability to break down complex topics into clear, engaging content, Jide crafts articles, blog posts, and analyses that resonate with both beginners and seasoned professionals. His work spans a wide range of subjects, from emerging crypto trends to in-depth explorations of blockchain innovations. With a keen eye for detail and a passion for educating readers, Jide is a reliable voice in the rapidly evolving world of digital assets.
Someone with wallet address 0xff84 on Hyperliquid, the decentralized perpetuals exchange, was staring down the barrel of a forced liquidation on a Bitcoin short position worth roughly $114.4 million. So they did what any rational person sitting on 40x leverage would do: they started cutting.
The trader closed approximately 250 BTC of the position across multiple transactions, eating a realized loss of about $33,400 in the process. That left a remaining short of around 1,543 BTC, valued at roughly $98.97 million, still live and still leveraged to the teeth.
Playing with fire at 40x The position peaked at around 1,793 BTC, with an average entry price hovering between $63,999 and $64,000. At 40x leverage, a 2.5% adverse move wipes out the entire margin.
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As Bitcoin’s spot price climbed in recent sessions, the liquidation threshold crept up to approximately $64,225. That’s a gap of just $225 from the entry price, or about 0.35%.
On-chain analytics firm Lookonchain, along with tracking service Hyperbot, flagged the activity as the trader began trimming the position to buy themselves breathing room. The partial close adjusted the liquidation price, giving the remaining $98.97 million short slightly more runway before an involuntary exit.
The wallet first appeared around early August 2026, funded with roughly 2.44 million USDC. Its initial move was opening a short of approximately 1,600 BTC, worth about $102.6 million at the time. Since then, the trader has been actively managing position size, scaling in and out based on price swings and funding rate changes.
The short squeeze math When large short positions get liquidated on-chain, the exchange’s liquidation engine buys Bitcoin to close the position. That buying pressure pushes the price higher, which can trigger liquidations on other short positions, which creates more buying pressure.
The remaining $98.97 million short from this single wallet represents meaningful fuel for exactly that kind of cascade. If Bitcoin’s price continues to grind higher and pushes through the $64,225 liquidation level, the forced closure of 1,543 BTC worth of shorts would inject substantial buying volume into a market that’s already trending upward.
The $33,400 loss the trader realized on the partial close might look modest relative to the position size. On a $114 million notional trade, it’s essentially a rounding error. But it signals something important: even whale-sized traders are being forced to play defense as Bitcoin’s price trends higher.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Markets experienced significant movement on Wednesday as investors responded to US inflation data, new progress in artificial intelligence, and several high-profile earnings reports.
Gold rises as inflation data boosts outlook for Fed pauseGold climbed to its highest level in over two months following US consumer inflation figures that matched expectations. This reinforced the belief that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at the September policy meeting.
Spot gold rose 1% to $4,412.68 per ounce, after reaching its strongest level since June 5. US gold futures finished 0.73% higher at $4,473 per ounce.
July’s consumer price index increased 0.1% from the previous month and 3.4% year over year. These results were in line with economists’ predictions following a 0.4% decline in June.
Data from CME FedWatch indicated the likelihood of a September interest rate hike dropped to around 40% after the inflation report, down from 46% previously.
Geopolitical concerns continued, with repeated attacks on shipping involving the US and Yemen’s Houthi group, contributing to ongoing uncertainty around the Iran conflict.
The shift in how investors access assets has accelerated as well. While conventional markets still use multiple brokers, a dramatic move toward Web3 is underway. Some market participants now use platforms such as 1stepSwap to store shares of major US companies, gold, and silver directly in their crypto wallets. By tokenizing real-world assets and sourcing the best market prices in seconds, these platforms are removing traditional intermediaries from the process.
Bitcoin falls despite lower rate hike expectationsBitcoin traded below $63,300 even as softer inflation and weaker labor-market data gave support to expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady.
The cryptocurrency lost earlier gains, with the market’s attention turning to Thursday’s upcoming Producer Price Index report.
Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted concerns about Bitcoin’s technical levels, noting that each rebound from the $63,000 support has weakened over time.
The progressively weakening support at approximately $63,000 is evident, with rebounds declining from 6.27% to just 1.15%. At some stage, the diminishing bounces could result in a break below this key level.
Super Micro’s strong results boost AI infrastructure sectorSuper Micro Computer shares surged 19% after the company posted quarterly earnings that beat Wall Street expectations and issued an optimistic revenue outlook.
Adjusted earnings reached $1.70 per share, and gross margin climbed to 17.6%, both exceeding earlier forecasts. Revenue nearly doubled to $11.1 billion compared to a year earlier, though this fell just short of analyst estimates.
Looking ahead, Super Micro Computer projected first-quarter revenue between $14.5 billion and $15.5 billion, and fiscal 2027 revenue ranging from $65 billion up to $72 billion, figures well above analyst predictions.
Executives stated that the company secured more than $60 billion in new orders during the June quarter and entered the new fiscal year with a record backlog, although some revenue was delayed as clients worked to secure power, cooling, and networking infrastructure.
The company’s previously announced $7 billion financing plan, involving equity and equity-linked securities, aims to fund future AI component purchases. The strong earnings propelled gains across the broader AI hardware sector, lifting the shares of Micron, SK Hynix, SanDisk, and Western Digital.
SpaceX stock rebounds on AI business visionSpaceX shares advanced about 9% after CEO Elon Musk shared a bold artificial intelligence strategy at an employee event, pushing the stock price above its IPO level.
Musk predicted that AI will become a primary component of SpaceX revenue, potentially surpassing all other streams by September and significantly exceeding them in the fourth quarter.
SpaceX will soon train its Grok AI system on the complete body of company information, making employees the ‘parents of the AI,’ according to Musk.
Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and $300 price target for SpaceX, with analyst Adam Jonas citing that more advances in AI could lift the stock’s valuation.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Macro investor Jordi Visser on Wednesday said the U.S.’ yen intervention signals the government is in financial trouble—and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is his top bet to capture the money printing that follows.
Why Visser Calls Bitcoin The Purest AI Trade?Visser outlined in the Wolf Of All Streets podcast that Bitcoin and AI intersect not because they move together short term but because AI will disrupt every business on earth over the next five years.
As disruption spreads across industries, people increasingly seek assets that remain resistant to change, and Bitcoin’s fixed scarcity makes it a natural choice.
According to Visser, the coming wave of AI deflation will drive the cost of goods and services toward zero.
In that environment, investors focus more on preserving value against deflation than inflation, and Bitcoin’s fixed supply gives it an advantage.
Why Visser Sees Yen Intervention As A Major Bitcoin Signal?Visser noted the Treasury’s decision to intervene in the yen signals printing is beginning. The U.S. carries enormous debt, a worsening deficit, and rapidly growing AI capital needs.
The government cannot raise rates because interest expense already exceeds defense spending, leaving the only option as running the economy hot and hoping AI productivity catches up.
“The intervention in the yen is the signal that the U.S. is in trouble,” Visser said. “And I don’t think the pressure on the yen is going to go away.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s call for the Fed to raise the FIMA repo facility cap is the blueprint, Visser argued.
Japan collateralizes its U.S. treasury holdings at the Fed, gets dollars, buys yen, and the Fed prints the dollars. He compared the structure to what happened after SVB.
Why Bitcoin Has Not Rallied Yet And When Visser Expects It To?Visser said Bitcoin is following the same script as Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) in early 2025, when the AI memory trade was obvious but the stock could not break out for months before going up eight to ten times within a year.
He is watching the 200-day moving average as the equivalent clearing level for Bitcoin.
The fact that Bitcoin absorbed Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) selling, the Coldcard hack, Clarity Act odds falling below 20%, and U.S.-Iran war fears without breaking is the most bullish signal possible, Visser pointed out.
What He Is Watching Beyond Bitcoin?Visser concluded that Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) need to participate alongside Bitcoin for a true bull market to begin.
He is watching Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) as a retail sentiment indicator, noting it briefly broke its 20-day moving average for the first time in months before pulling back.
Moreover, he expects 2027 to be the year of consumer AI agents transacting on-chain, calling it the biggest catalyst crypto has ever seen.
Image: Shutterstock
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Jonas Nick of Blockstream Research and collaborator remix7531 have released libshrincs, a proof-of-concept C library that implements a key component of a quantum-resistant signature scheme designed for Bitcoin. The library, announced on August 11 on Delving Bitcoin, represents one of the most rigorous attempts yet to formally verify cryptographic code meant to shield Bitcoin from the eventual arrival of powerful quantum computers.
The project is notable not just for what it protects against, but for how it was built. The security and correctness proofs were largely generated with the help of large language models, including ChatGPT and Fable, under human oversight.
What libshrincs actually does Libshrincs implements WOTS+C, the one-time signature component of a broader scheme called SHRINCS. SHRINCS, first proposed in December 2025, is a signature scheme that blends stateful and stateless hash-based signatures. The goal is to keep signature sizes compact enough to be practical for Bitcoin transactions while still providing quantum resistance.
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In stateful mode, signatures clock in at roughly 324 bytes. The scheme also includes a stateless fallback mechanism, essentially a safety net in case the stateful component’s tracking gets mismanaged.
The library ships with machine-checked proofs of functional correctness and a security proof verified using SSProve in Rocq. The proofs are substantial: approximately 6,200 lines of VST (Verified Software Toolchain) code and around 13,400 lines of Rocq code.
The AI angle, and why it matters Large language models were used to generate substantial portions of the verification code, with human developers guiding and reviewing the output. Formal verification in cryptography has historically been expensive and slow. If AI-assisted methods can reliably produce this kind of output, it could dramatically lower the barrier to building verified cryptographic software.
Limitations and the road ahead The researchers are transparent about what libshrincs does not yet accomplish. The current security theorem does not provide a complete post-quantum bound in the quantum random oracle model (QROM). It also uses a weaker security notion relative to how SHRINCS signatures would actually be deployed in practice. Numerical hash assumptions that would strengthen the security argument have not yet been incorporated.
There are no claims of production deployment or integration into Bitcoin Core. The work sits within Blockstream Research’s broader initiative to develop quantum-resistant signatures for both Bitcoin and Blockstream’s Liquid sidechain network. Related efforts include C++ implementations and Simplicity verifier libraries.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Goldman Sachs to acquire ETF manager NEOS in $2.25B deal The deal would add NEOS’ $30 billion ETF business, including Bitcoin- and Ether-linked income funds, to Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
Goldman Sachs has agreed to acquire exchange-traded fund manager NEOS Investments for up to $2.25 billion, a deal that would add the firm’s Bitcoin- and Ether-linked funds to its growing ETF business.
NEOS manages $30 billion across 19 options-based income ETFs, including the Bitcoin High Income ETF (BTCI), Boosted Bitcoin High Income ETF (XBCI) and Ethereum High Income ETF (NEHI). The crypto funds use options-based strategies designed to generate monthly income alongside exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) or Ether (ETH).
The acquisition is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, subject to regulatory approval, with NEOS co-founders Troy Cates and Garrett Paolella and the firm’s broader team set to join Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
Goldman said the acquisition, together with its recent purchase of Innovator Capital Management, would bring its global ETF platform to about $130 billion in assets and make it the eighth-largest active ETF manager.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas described the acquisition as a “semi-shock,” pointing to NEOS’ rapid growth since its 2022 founding and Goldman’s back-to-back acquisitions of NEOS and Innovator.
Source: Eric Balchunas
The deal comes after Goldman reduced its own disclosed crypto ETF exposure in the first quarter, exiting XRP- and Solana-linked funds while trimming positions in Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. The bank still reported more than $700 million in Bitcoin ETF holdings at the end of the quarter.
Magazine: Bitcoin will never fall below $60K again: Nansen founder
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Inflation Comes in as ExpectedUS inflation data for July landed in line with forecasts on Wednesday, offering markets little in the way of surprise. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, with the all-items index up 3.4% over the last 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The annual rate slowed for a second consecutive month, down from 3.5% in June. Stripping out food and energy, the core index rose 0.2% for the month and 2.5% over the year.
All readings were in line with Dow Jones consensus forecasts, and the tame monthly figures, coupled with similarly moderate levels in June, indicate that the energy-fueled burst earlier in the year is easing, though prices remain volatile and subject to changing conditions. The Federal Open Market Committee does not meet again until September, giving policymakers an additional month of data to digest before their next rate decision.
Gold Climbs, Bitcoin Holds SteadyGold was the clearer beneficiary of the benign print. The metal added 0.60% to $4,407.54 an ounce on the day, with silver rising 0.77% in tandem. Earlier in the session, gold was valued at $4,419.63 per ounce, a gain of more than $1,070 over the past year. Lower rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, while persistent inflation concerns, central-bank buying, and geopolitical tension have added to safe-haven demand.
$BTC told a different story. Bitcoin traded at $63,479, down 0.21% on the day, even as 24-hour volume climbed 9.52% to $22.41 billion. Gold has gained 7.84% over the past 30 days and sits 13.10% below its level from six months ago, underlining the divergence between the two assets this year. Bitcoin has behaved more like a risk asset than a safe haven in recent months, remaining stuck in a narrow trading range of roughly $60,000 to $65,000 while gold has rallied on geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. A softer inflation reading could reduce pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates, a potentially supportive backdrop for risk assets such as Bitcoin going forward.
Sources:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index Summary, July 2026
CNBC: CPI Inflation Report July 2026
Fortune: Current Price of Gold, August 12, 2026
San Francisco-based crypto asset manager Bitwise Asset Management has trimmed roughly 14 percent of its global staff, bringing its headcount down from approximately 180 employees to around 155. The company confirmed the reduction in an emailed statement, noting that the changes took place during an extended period of soft digital asset prices.
The firm, which has been operating for about eight years, described the move as an adjustment made in response to ongoing market conditions.
Despite the smaller team size, leadership emphasized that the remaining workforce still represents the largest staffing level in the company’s history.
Bitwise currently oversees more than 70 investment products, spanning exchange-traded funds, private funds, and separately managed accounts.
Its Bitcoin ETF accounts for roughly $2.3 billion of the firm’s approximately $9 billion in total assets under management.
Chief Executive Officer Hunter Horsley stated that the staffing change positions the company effectively for continued expansion.
He pointed to growth already observed this year and expressed optimism that further integration of cryptocurrency into the broader global economy would support ongoing business development.
Horsley framed the reduction as a step that equips Bitwise to navigate current pressures while remaining prepared for longer-term opportunities in the sector.
The decision arrives against a backdrop of sustained weakness in digital asset markets. One of Bitwise’s notable products, the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund, saw its net assets decline by about 31 percent over the first seven months of 2026.
Broader industry challenges, including lower trading volumes and reduced investor appetite following earlier peaks, have prompted several crypto-related firms to reassess operational scale and costs in recent months.
Even as it streamlined its team, Bitwise has continued pursuing strategic initiatives aimed at diversification and growth.
Earlier in the year, the company completed the acquisition of Chorus One, an institutional staking provider, as part of efforts to expand its offerings in that area.
The firm maintains a focus on serving institutional and professional investors through a range of crypto-related investment vehicles.
Market observers note that asset managers in the digital asset space have faced pressure as prices of major cryptocurrencies remained well below previous highs for an extended period.
Bitcoin, for instance, has traded near levels significantly lower than its prior peaks, contributing to reduced fee-generating assets across the industry.
Bitwise’s move reflects a common response among firms seeking to align expenses with current revenue realities while preserving capacity for future expansion.
Company representatives have not detailed which specific departments or roles were affected, nor have they outlined severance arrangements or further restructuring plans.
The emphasis from leadership has remained on the firm’s readiness for growth as cryptocurrency adoption deepens within traditional financial systems and the wider economy.
Bitwise has built its reputation on providing institutional-grade access to crypto markets through index products, ETFs, and specialized strategies.
As first reported by Bloomberg, the recent headcount adjustment occurs at a time when the industry continues to evolve, with ongoing product development and selective acquisitions signaling an intent to remain competitive once market conditions improve.
As digital assets gradually become more embedded in global finance, managers like Bitwise are balancing near-term cost discipline with preparations for potential recovery and broader participation.
The next 24 hours could be pivotal for the crypto market.
And the market already seems to be positioning for more downside, with traders leaning bearish on Bitcoin. According to Lookonchain data, four Bitcoin traders have opened a combined short position of 5,379 BTC, worth around $343 million, with liquidation levels between $64k-$66k. This suggests perp traders are expecting strong resistance around $66k, making this a key level to watch given the current setup.
From the technical lens, Bitcoin has been chopping around $65k for over seven weeks now. Notably, this marks BTC’s strongest weekly consolidation since Q4 2025. However, with ETF flows still strong, a heavily crowded shorts could set up the conditions for a squeeze if BTC breaks above resistance.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT) However, a few key pointers need to be considered.
To begin with, whales are also betting against Bitcoin, with their positioning adding to the broader bearish sentiment. And when we look at a key BTC metric, this positioning doesn’t look entirely random. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin hasn’t hit key bottom levels yet, which suggests that while selling pressure is cooling off, it hasn’t reached the “extreme” exhaustion levels seen during previous BTC bear markets.
In this context, rising BTC short positioning around the current range could be a strategic bet rather than a random move. The key takeaway? This positioning also lines up with the upcoming CPI report, making the next 24 hours particularly important for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin bear trap brewing? The market is clearly split 50-50 on the rate outlook.
According to FedWatch data, markets are pricing in a 49.9% chance of a rate hike and a 50.1% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. In this setup, the July CPI, due on the 12th of August, could become a key catalyst for risk assets, with Bitcoin likely at the center of the reaction. This becomes even more important as capital is already flowing into gold. So, if inflation comes in “hotter-than-expected” that flow could intensify further.
However, market analysts are still leaning toward a more dovish stance, especially if the upcoming CPI print comes in soft. Banks are already pricing in a relatively “benign” inflation reading after June’s softer-than-expected print, which could strengthen the case for rate cuts and provide some relief for risk assets.
Source: X If that happens, Bitcoin’s weak spot demand could quickly flip. In this context, the rising shorts could become a high-risk trade, with the $343 million mentioned above facing liquidation if BTC breaks above $66k.
And based on the ongoing market pricing and the expectations around the CPI report, a breakout above resistance doesn’t look unlikely. With Bitcoin shorts building across the board, the next 24 hours could be highly consequential, potentially setting up one of the biggest bear traps of the cycle.
Final Summary Bitcoin shorts are piling up ahead of CPI, with $343 million at risk if BTC breaks above $66k. A soft CPI push could push BTC higher, triggering a potential bear trap.
Goldman Sachs has agreed to acquire NEOS Investments in a deal worth up to $2.25 billion that will give the Wall Street giant another Bitcoin-related product for its portfolio, the banking giant announced Wednesday.
The deal will be in cash and equity, contingent on performance and service milestones, and will bring the Neos Bitcoin High Income ETF (BTCI), Boosted Bitcoin High Income ETF (XBCI) and Ethereum High Income ETF (NEHI) under Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
CEO David Solomon called NEOS’s approach “highly complementary” to Goldman’s existing buffer, managed-outcome and income capabilities.
NEOS co-founders Garrett Paolella and Troy Cates, who will join Goldman Sachs Asset Management as partners, framed the deal as pairing NEOS’s “entrepreneurial spirit” with Goldman’s scale.
NEOS manages roughly $30 billion across 19 ETFs that use options strategies to generate monthly income.
Combined with Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s existing $40 billion in income-oriented, options-based ETFs, the deal will push Goldman’s active ETF business to about $80 billion — making it the eighth-largest active ETF manager, according to Morningstar — inside a broader $130 billion ETF platform.
The move follows Goldman’s earlier acquisition of Innovator Capital Management, rounding out a three-way combination focused on derivative-income and buffer/outcome strategies.
The Bitcoin ETFs in question don’t hold the cryptocurrency directly, rather they use derivatives to generate income from crypto-linked exposure rather than owning the underlying coins, per NEOS’s disclosures.
Therefore, the high headline yields come largely from selling options premium, not necessarily reflecting the price performance of Bitcoin itself.
The acquisition effectively hands Goldman Sachs a ready-made foothold in crypto-income ETFs — a corner of the market it hadn’t built organically — right as institutional appetite for digital-asset-adjacent, income-generating products continues to grow alongside the broader derivative-income boom.
The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, pending regulatory approval.
Mathew Di Salvo
Mathew is a reporter who's covered the space since 2019, reporting on everything from Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele's Bitcoin bet to crypto exchange FTX's bankruptcy.
Bitcoin’s price has shown signs of stabilizing after a rough stretch, but even setting aside where prices go in the near term, asset manager Grayscale says adoption of the cryptocurrency over the medium and long run remains largely unchanged.
The reason: continued, unsustainable growth in government debt as a factor that keeps inflation and currency-debasement risk elevated.
That backdrop, Grayscale argues, could push a widening range of investors toward scarce assets and alternative stores of value — a category where Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, is increasingly well positioned as a candidate.
It added that the adoption of stablecoins and tokenization are set to make blockchain infrastructure commonplace across financial services. Top banks and asset managers have piled into the tokenization space the past year and are fast adopting crypto technology.
Grayscale argues that as that spreads, more banks, brokerages, and other intermediaries will have both the technical rails and regulatory clarity needed to hold and transact in Bitcoin — eroding the wall that has historically kept it structurally separate from mainstream finance.
“As the spread of the technology continues, many more intermediaries will have the necessary infrastructure (and regulatory clarity) to transact and store balances in Bitcoin — it will no longer be structurally apart from the rest of the financial system,” the note by the firm’s head of research, Zach Pandl, reads.
The firm added that younger investors show a markedly higher appetite for digital assets, and alternative investments have become a standard portfolio component rather than a fringe allocation.
The analysis expects institutions, wealth platforms, and individual investors alike to keep folding Bitcoin into diversified portfolios — largely through exchange-traded products, a shift it describes as already well underway.
Taken together, the report says that a cyclical downturn in price doesn’t undercut the longer-term adoption thesis.
The Bitcoin price was recently $63,549, down close to 50% from its October record of $126,080.
Mathew Di Salvo
Mathew is a reporter who's covered the space since 2019, reporting on everything from Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele's Bitcoin bet to crypto exchange FTX's bankruptcy.
The service remains offline while incoming operators work to fix vulnerabilities; Boltz said attacks caused losses to the company.
Boltz’s original founders have stepped down, and an unnamed group of “veteran Bitcoiners” has agreed to take over the suspended Bitcoin swap service, the company said Wednesday.
The incoming operators will provide capital and engineering resources, while work to find and fix vulnerabilities is underway, according to Boltz. The company said it was withholding the group’s names for now and that the goal was to restore swaps “as soon as possible.”
All original founders left the company effective immediately and will have no formal or authoritative role in the project, Boltz said. Any future participation by them in its open-source software would be voluntary.
Boltz said it suspended the service on Aug. 3 after AI-assisted attackers targeted it with increasing frequency, intensity and sophistication over several months. The company said several attacks succeeded and caused losses, but that user funds were never at risk because the service is non-custodial.
In its Aug. 3 outage notice, Boltz said attackers were iterating faster than its team could find and patch flaws. On Wednesday, it described itself as a bootstrapped five-person startup that lacked the resources to withstand the attacks over the long term.
Swaps Remain OfflineAs of Wednesday, the Boltz web app still displayed “Swap Services Disabled.” The outage notice said the API remained available for cooperative refunds and that unilateral refunds did not depend on Boltz infrastructure. Boltz also said its support team remained reachable.
Boltz’s API documentation says clients use its REST API to query supported pairs and to create and monitor swaps. Its official software supports swaps involving Lightning, bitcoin and Liquid bitcoin; a broader reference library also lists RBTC, WBTC, USDT and USDC among supported currencies.
The documentation lists Aqua Wallet, Bull Bitcoin Mobile, Klever Wallet and Misty Breez as users of Boltz-related libraries. New swaps remained unavailable at the reporting cutoff.
According to Glassnode’s latest assessment, the US consumer price index data for July did not significantly alter the overall market outlook. Core inflation fell to 2.5%, while headline inflation remained flat.
The Fed’s effective interest rate has remained largely unchanged since December, continuing to be more than one percentage point above core inflation. This indicates that real interest rates are still in a restrictive zone.
According to Glassnode, the most noteworthy point was not the data itself, but the market’s reaction. Despite inflation remaining under control and no signal of further monetary policy tightening, Bitcoin (BTC) saw limited gains while stocks retreated.
The company stated that while such a macroeconomic picture might normally be viewed positively for risky assets, Bitcoin’s inability to generate upward momentum in the upcoming sessions could confirm a lack of demand.
Glassnode noted that despite a recovery in the last two months, consumer confidence in the US remains near its lowest levels in a decade. In contrast, the US stock market reached a new record high on August 7th and continues to trade near that peak.
According to the analysis, consumers shifting from cash to assets due to high living costs and expectations of an economic slowdown may be one of the underlying reasons for this apparent paradox. AI-related stocks, in particular, are benefiting strongly from this capital flow.
Bitcoin, however, remains outside of this rotation. Glassnode noted that BTC is trading at roughly half the level of its October 2025 peak and has lagged significantly behind stocks throughout the summer months.
According to the company, capital is currently following already rising assets. Therefore, record highs in stock prices provide limited support for cryptocurrency unless capital redirects back to Bitcoin.
Glassnode stated that a potential reversal should first be seen in spot Bitcoin ETF flows, but current data does not yet indicate such a change.
According to on-chain data, the Bitcoin price is trading just above the Median Realized Price, which is around $63,000. This level is considered a crucial reference point that splits the cost basis of circulating Bitcoins in half.
Bitcoin is also trading below the Short-Term Investor Cost Base of $68,700. According to Glassnode, this level, which represents the average cost for investors who have recently entered the market, indicates that this group of investors is in the loss zone.
Historically, short-term investors who are in a losing position are more likely to sell during price increases.
Glassnode noted that the Bitcoin price has been stuck in the $63,000-$68,700 range for about three months, and that these two key cost levels are gradually converging as volatility decreases.
Further down, the total Realized Price is approximately $52,800. This indicates that the general Bitcoin investor base is still significantly profitable.
According to Glassnode, a sustained break above $68,700 could signal a significant upward move, bringing short-term investors back into profit. Conversely, a loss of the median price around $63,000 could weaken strong technical support levels, potentially leading back to the June lows.
One of the most important indicators highlighted by Glassnode was the sharp contraction in spot market volumes.
Bitcoin spot exchange volume, measured on a coin-by-coin basis, has fallen to its lowest level since the data series began in 2019. Even excluding Binance data, trading volumes are reportedly approaching the lows seen during the 2023 bear market.
Glassnode stated that no period in the last seven years has seen so little Bitcoin change hands, and that this is one of the clearest indicators of market apathy.
However, low liquidity also increases the risk of volatility. In a market with extremely low trading volume, limited new demand can quickly push prices up, while small amounts of selling pressure can cause sharper declines.
According to the company, such low participation levels don’t usually last long, and the current pattern represents a classic squeeze before a larger volatility move.
Glassnode described the current market structure as a “late bear market squeeze,” highlighting an unusual situation: a significant portion of investors are preparing for a recovery, but the demand to drive it has not yet entered the market.
The indicators on the selling side are reportedly relatively positive. While the supply in profit is hovering near historical market lows, indicators of seller exhaustion are approaching cycle lows. The decrease in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges also suggests that selling pressure is weakening.
In contrast, there is no significant strengthening on the buyer side. ETF inflows remain quite limited, while spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019. Bitcoin also continues to lag behind the US stock market, which is at record highs.
According to Glassnode, the regaining of the $68,700 level with increasing trading volume and strengthening ETF inflows could indicate the start of a real recovery in the Bitcoin market.
Conversely, the inability of prices to generate growth despite positive inflation data, or the loss of the $58,500 low, could invalidate the current market floor scenario.
*This is not investment advice.
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Goldman Sachs announced an agreement to acquire NEOS Investments in a transaction valued up to $2.25 billion, signaling an expansion of its offerings in crypto-linked income products. The acquisition, a mix of cash and equity, will add several popular Bitcoin and Ethereum high income exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to the firm’s asset management platform.
NEOS Investments, known for its innovative options-based ETF strategies, manages approximately $30 billion across 19 different funds. The company’s core products include the NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF (BTCI), Boosted Bitcoin High Income ETF (XBCI), and Ethereum High Income ETF (NEHI), all of which will become part of Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s portfolio following the acquisition.
As part of the deal, NEOS co-founders Garrett Paolella and Troy Cates will join Goldman Sachs Asset Management as partners. The bank characterized NEOS’s methods as a strong complement to its existing buffer, managed-outcome, and income capabilities. CEO David Solomon described the opportunity as aligning Goldman’s broad reach and resources with NEOS’s entrepreneurial approach.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management currently oversees $40 billion in income-oriented, options-based ETF strategies. Together with NEOS’s $30 billion ETF assets, the merged entity is positioned to control approximately $80 billion in active ETFs. This scale places Goldman Sachs as the eighth-largest active ETF manager globally within a $130 billion ETF business, as reported by Morningstar.
Company/PlatformActive ETF AssetsETF CountGoldman Sachs (pre-acquisition)$40 billionVariedNEOS Investments$30 billion19Combined (Post-acquisition)$80 billion19+Mini dictionary: NEOS Investments, a US-based asset manager, is recognized for option-based ETFs that generate monthly income, frequently using derivative strategies and crypto-linked funds to deliver enhanced yields for investors.
Bitcoin and Ethereum income ETFsThe acquisition brings Goldman Sachs a portfolio of high-income ETFs linked to cryptocurrencies. The largest of these, the NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF, holds nearly $1 billion in assets, while the Boosted Bitcoin High Income ETF and Ethereum High Income ETF expand the firm’s exposure to digital asset derivatives. These ETFs do not hold physical Bitcoin or Ethereum, but instead seek to generate income by trading derivatives that reference these cryptocurrencies.
According to NEOS’s disclosures, their crypto income ETFs employ options strategies, primarily by selling options premiums, to provide income that is not directly tied to the price movements of the underlying digital assets.
NEOS co-founders described the transaction as combining their company’s “entrepreneurial spirit” with the scale and strength of Goldman Sachs, creating opportunities for broader growth and innovation in digital asset ETFs.
Growth in options-based and derivative-income ETFsThe deal follows Goldman Sachs’ previous acquisition of Innovator Capital Management and reflects the firm’s commitment to growing in the active and derivative-based ETF market. By acquiring NEOS, Goldman Sachs gains a substantial presence in crypto-linked income ETFs at a time when institutional interest in derivative-income products is increasing.
NEOS’s focus on using option strategies to pursue steady income complements Goldman Sachs’s broader ETF strategies, particularly as interest in income-generating, crypto-adjacent funds grows in the institutional market.
Goldman Sachs expects to close the NEOS acquisition in the first quarter of 2027, subject to regulatory approval.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Bitcoin‘s price has begun to stabilize following a volatile period, but asset manager Grayscale maintains that the cryptocurrency’s adoption trend will continue, regardless of short-term fluctuations.
Macro factors and Bitcoin’s appealGrayscale identified ongoing, unsustainable growth in government debt as a key factor keeping inflation and currency devaluation risks elevated. In this environment, investors are increasingly seeking scarce assets and alternative stores of value.
According to the firm, Bitcoin, with its fixed maximum supply, is positioned as an attractive option to hedge against these systemic risks, especially as more investors search for assets less correlated to traditional financial instruments.
Growth of blockchain infrastructureGrayscale noted the recent adoption of stablecoins and the accelerated move to tokenize traditional assets as forces making blockchain infrastructure common within the financial sector. Over the past year, major banks and asset management firms have significantly increased their involvement with tokenization and crypto-based technologies.
This trend is leading to more banks, brokerages, and other intermediaries developing both the technical infrastructure and regulatory clarity to hold and transact in Bitcoin.
Mini dictionary: Tokenization, the process of converting real-world assets, such as stocks or real estate, into digital tokens on a blockchain, allows assets to be traded securely and efficiently using decentralized networks.
Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, explained that as technology spreads across sectors, more financial system intermediaries will access the tools and regulatory certainty to transact and store Bitcoin-like any other asset, erasing the divide that historically separated it from mainstream finance.
As technology adoption continues, many more intermediaries will gain the infrastructure and regulatory clarity to transact and store Bitcoin, eliminating its structural separation from the broader financial system, Zach Pandl stated.
Broader adoption among investorsGrayscale’s analysis showed that younger investors have a stronger interest in digital assets, and alternative investments are becoming a standard part of investment portfolios, not just a fringe addition.
The report expects institutional investors, wealth management platforms, and individuals to keep adding Bitcoin to their diversified holdings, primarily through exchange-traded products. Grayscale views this trend as already in progress.
Bitcoin price and long-term prospectsDespite a sharp decline from all-time highs, Grayscale believes that price corrections do not derail the long-term adoption case for Bitcoin. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $63,549, about 50% lower than its October peak of $126,080.
MetricOctober PeakCurrent ValueChangeBitcoin Price$126,080$63,549-50%Grayscale’s report suggests that structural factors—rising debt, broader blockchain adoption, and shifting investor preferences—continue to support Bitcoin’s integration into the global financial system, regardless of periodic downturns in price.
A cyclical downturn in Bitcoin’s price does not diminish the longer-term adoption thesis, according to Grayscale’s research.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed about 13,300 BTC last week, more than four times the roughly 3,150 BTC newly created by the network.
Bitcoin moved toward the top of its range last week as institutional demand through U.S. spot ETFs strengthened. Cooler employment data reduced expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike, but persistent selling pressure kept the move contained.
The stronger ETF demand was reflected in $865.3 million of net inflows across five straight sessions, the funds’ strongest weekly showing since April. According to a recent Bitfinex Alpha report, the funds absorbed about 13,300 BTC during the period. That was more than four times the roughly 3,150 BTC newly created by the network.
ETF Inflows Return, But Sellers Push Back BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC accounted for much of the ETF activity. Ether-focused ETFs also recorded $243.7 million in inflows, extending their weekly streak and showing that demand was not limited to Bitcoin.
The renewed demand came as broader risk assets also moved higher amid easing tensions and falling oil prices. The S&P 500 rose 3.58% for the week, while Bitcoin gained slightly more than 2%, indicating that other sources of supply continued to weigh on its price.
One notable source of that supply came from Strategy, which disclosed the sale of 1,638 BTC for approximately $104.7 million. The company sold the coins at an average price of about $63,957 and said it would use the proceeds for preferred dividends and a discounted share repurchase.
Strategy’s sale adds to a broader supply overhang visible on-chain around Bitcoin’s current trading range. An estimated 1.79 million BTC have cost bases between $62,000 and $65,000, creating potential selling pressure as the price moves through the band.
Why the Macro Picture Remains Mixed U.S. labor data added to the macro backdrop, with July payrolls falling by 23,000 and earlier figures revised lower. The three-month average job gain dropped to about 20,000, while unemployment reached 4.1% as participation declined.
You may also like: Bitcoin Rebound Faces Risk as Futures Demand Outpaces Spot Buying: Analysts Only 90 Bitcoin Wallets Hold 10K+ BTC: And That Number Just Hit a 6-Month High BTC Price Drops Below $64K as Peter Schiff Urges Investors to Sell Bitcoin Initial jobless claims remained low, indicating that the labor market was cooling rather than collapsing. Futures markets lowered the probability of a September rate hike to 43.9%, while Treasury yields and the dollar eased.
However, long-term borrowing costs stayed high, with the 30-year Treasury yield above 5.2% amid inflation concerns and heavy government borrowing. Bitfinex said Bitcoin could break above $65,000 if ETF demand remains strong while inflation and long-term yields ease.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing several signs of a potential market bottom as multiple indicators show improving market conditions, according to CryptoQuant analysts.
Bitcoin flashes second early bull signalCryptoQuant data revealed that Bitcoin has produced a second early bull signal, a pattern that has historically appeared closer to market bottoms. The firm noted that another decline generally follows the first early bull signal, while the second signal has historically emerged when a bottom begins to form and an uptrend gets underway.
“A second early bull signal has appeared. This signifies another bottom signal,” analyst CW8900 wrote, citing CryptoQuant data.
Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Source: CryptoQuant.The analyst also highlighted the structure of the previous market rally. Bitcoin did not experience an overheated bull phase during its last rally, while the extreme bear phase during the subsequent decline was relatively short.
Meanwhile, BTC's 90-day correlation with Gold has rebounded from nearly -0.9 in early 2026 to around +0.7. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju described the current relationship as a return to “digital-gold-era levels.”
“The shift suggests Bitcoin is again being priced as a scarce, non-sovereign asset and a hedge against currency debasement, fiscal stress and geopolitical uncertainty,” CryptoQuant contributor XWIN wrote.
However, CryptoQuant cautioned that positive correlation with gold does not automatically mean Bitcoin is bullish. Both assets can move higher or lower together, while the 90-day correlation can also change as older data falls outside the measurement period.
“At times it moves with Nasdaq as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset; at others it follows gold as a scarcity asset. Its volatility, however, remains much higher,” XWIN added.
The analyst added that it is too early to conclude that Bitcoin has become a true haven.
Long-term holder losses point to bottom formationThe final indicator is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which revealed increasing pressure among Bitcoin’s long-term holder base. The metric signaled that long-term holder NUPL has fallen below the broader market average and entered negative territory, while Bitcoin remains roughly 50% below its cycle high.
“This suggests the market is no longer experiencing an ordinary correction; long-term capital is now being tested,” CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV wrote in a Wednesday post on CryptoQuant.
Historically, major Bitcoin cycle bottoms have occurred when long-term holders were carrying deeper unrealized losses than the broader market. The current structure therefore resembles conditions seen during previous macro bottoms.
However, the analyst noted that the current level of losses remains less severe than in previous bottoms. LTH NUPL has not yet entered the “depression territory” associated with full capitulation.
BTC: adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). Source: CryptoQuantThe analyst highlighted that current conditions suggest two possible outcomes. Bitcoin could experience another decline that pushes LTH losses toward historical extremes. On the other hand, institutional demand and a stronger holder base could absorb selling pressure earlier, allowing BTC to establish a bottom without another major capitulation event.
“A recovery toward zero while BTC holds a higher low would instead suggest that LTH stress has peaked and losses are being absorbed,” MorenoDV stated.
BTC is trading at $63,314, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing.
Pi Network price hovered above $0.088 on Wednesday as softer inflation data and Protocol 26 supported renewed market interest. PI gained 2.34% over 24 hours, outperforming the mostly flat cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin price was trading at over $64,400, and Ethereum was close to $1,888. XRP price remained around $1.00 as improving economic sentiment encouraged traders to explore riskier digital assets during Wednesday’s session.
PI remains over 95% below its February 2025 peak, despite the latest improvement.
Softer CPI Data Lifts Cryptocurrency Sentiment Inflation in the United States had cooled in July, boosting hopes that the monetary environment would get more favourable to speculative markets. The Consumer Price Index has risen 0.1% every month and 3.4% every year according to official data.
The annual reading fell to 3.5% in June and this is an indication that the pace of price pressures was gradually cooling. Core CPI improved by 0.2% per month, and core inflation was 2.5% per year.
BREAKING: September pause odds just jumped to 64%, up from just 30% a month ago.
The shift happened fast. A week ago, odds were just 45%.
This lines up exactly with today’s cooler CPI print. Headline inflation rose just 0.1% in July and slowed to 3.4% year over year, down from… https://t.co/6LjfhI9nmJ pic.twitter.com/PnehGY6rkH
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) August 12, 2026
The lower inflation can decrease the pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates restrictive over a longer period. Liquidity and higher demand of cryptocurrencies and other riskier investments are more likely to be met by easier policy expectations.
Protocol 26 Upgrade Supports Pi Network Outlook The August 11 deadline of Pi Network meant that Mainnet node operators had to get Protocol 26 completed. Those operators not having reached that deadline were disconnected to Mainnet until they installed the necessary software.
By Wednesday, no network interruptions had become popular. But the Pi Core Team had not indicated the number of operators who had undergone the upgrade
Observers have no official participation numbers on which to base their measurements of adoption at the node infrastructure of Pi Network. Stable Mainnet activity, however, alleviated immediate fears regarding operational issues after the deadline.
Protocol 26 enhances the safety of smart contracts, cryptography tools, state management, and interoperability.
The update also lays the groundwork to Protocol 27, which finishes the series of planned protocol changes.
Pi Network Price Prediction Is a Rally Toward $0.10 Next? The Pi Coin price traded near $0.0880 after defending the important $0.085 support level. PI was under $0.090 as traders evaluated the Protocol 26 upgrade.
The four-hour set-up reveals PI is consolidating between $0.085 and $0.090. The RSI is 49.05, which represents a neutral momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD line crossed above its signal line, suggesting bearish pressure is weakening.
Source: TradingView An established breakout of over $0.090 would drive the future Pi Coin outlook towards $0.095. Good momentum beyond that point could clear the way to $0.10. Nonetheless, a loss of 0.085 may reveal the lower support area of $0.080-$0.082.
Circle National Trust custodies the backing, while published Bitcoin addresses and Chainlink Proof of Reserve provide onchain visibility; Arc support remains forthcoming.
Circle renewed its push for cirBTC as neutral institutional collateral in an Aug. 12 post, but the product is not a new launch. It has been live on Ethereum since June 8 and had only about 40 tokens outstanding at the time of review, compared with more than 116,000 WBTC and 97,000 cbBTC.
cirBTC exists onchain and can be minted and redeemed by eligible institutional participants, but distribution remains limited. An Etherscan page for the contract showed a maximum total supply of 40.01955869 cirBTC and 11 holder addresses. CoinGecko labels the asset “preview only” and says it is unavailable on the centralized and decentralized exchanges it tracks.
Circle says Circle Mint provides the institutional workflow for minting and redeeming cirBTC. Ethereum is currently the only live chain Circle identifies for the token; Arc is the next named deployment, with broader multichain support planned.
How the Backing WorkscirBTC is issued by Circle International Bermuda Limited, which Circle identifies as a Class F digital asset business regulated by the Bermuda Monetary Authority. The underlying bitcoin is held through Circle’s Bermuda affiliate and custodied by Circle National Trust for the exclusive benefit of cirBTC holders, according to Circle. The company describes Circle National Trust as a federally chartered national trust bank and qualified custodian supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Circle’s June launch post also said the underlying BTC is segregated from the company’s corporate assets.
A Circle reserve dashboard timestamped Aug. 11 at 8 a.m. showed 40.02159077 cirBTC in supply against 42.5070808 BTC in reserves. The dashboard lists the BTC reserve addresses and their individual balances, allowing counterparties to inspect the holdings on the Bitcoin blockchain.
Circle says cirBTC uses Chainlink Proof of Reserve rather than a monthly attestation model. Chainlink describes the system as publishing verified reserve data onchain so users and protocols can monitor whether tokenized assets remain collateralized.
Circle’s neutrality claim is commercial rather than a claim of decentralized issuance. The company defines neutrality as not operating a competing centralized exchange, decentralized exchange or lending protocol. Minting and redemption run through Circle Mint, while Etherscan identifies the cirBTC token as a proxy contract.
A Long Way From WBTC and cbBTCCoinGecko put WBTC at 116,132 tokens in circulation and a $7.362 billion market capitalization at the time of review. Coinbase Wrapped BTC had 97,231 tokens in circulation and a $6.162 billion market capitalization.
The incumbents also have broader chain footprints. WBTC’s official site identifies Ethereum, Solana, Tron, BNB Chain, Base, Kava and Osmosis as native networks. CoinGecko lists cbBTC deployments on Ethereum, Base, Monad, Solana and Arbitrum.
cirBTC, by comparison, does not yet have a tracked CoinGecko price or market capitalization. For now, Ethereum is the only live chain Circle identifies, while Arc support is “coming soon,” subject to applicable regulatory approvals.
Coinglass data shows 70,067 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for $155.39 million. SoSoValue data shows net inflows of $4.89 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $1.8 million. In the past 24 hours, top gainers include Bitway, NEAR Protocol and Stable. Notable Developments:
Gold and BTC ‘React Differently’ to Inflation, Schiff Says: So Why Is Their Correlation Rising? Bitcoin ‘Ignoring Bad News’ Signals We’re at the Bottom of Crypto Winter, Bitwise Exec Says Hyperliquid Pushes for US Perpetual Futures Access: How Did PURR, THYP React? Tom Lee’s BitMine Is Close to Owning 5% of All ETH: What Happens to BMNR When It Does? Are Bitcoin Miners Abandoning Mining for AI? Riot’s Anthropic Deal Has the Answer CLARITY Act’s Failure Is ‘Ironic,’ ETF Expert Says: ‘Will Result in President Trump’s SEC Doing Whatever They Want’ Trader Notes:
CryptosBatman explained Bitcoin remains range-bound between $62,500 support and $65,400 resistance after bouncing from the lower end.
Recovering MFI flashes improving momentum, but a reclaim of the 200 EMA near $64,300 followed by a break above $65,400 is needed to strengthen the bullish setup.
Trader KillaXBT sees current Bitcoin levels as a potentially generational buying opportunity. He argues that investors rotating toward AI could eventually return to BTC at much higher prices. Bitcoin is expected to trade above $160,000 by 2029.
Trader Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin risks turning a modestly positive August into a negative month. The analyst notes that this would align with the historically bearish August performance seen during bear markets.
Image: Shutterstock
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Bitcoin is currently locked in a historically tight trading range near $63,700, signaling a period of extremely low volatility. The Bollinger Band Width on the daily chart has dropped to levels not seen since October 2023, compressing price movement into a notably narrow corridor.
Bollinger Band squeeze recalls previous Bitcoin breakoutAnalysts describe such conditions as a “squeeze,” where declining volatility often leads to a sharp market move. Historically, Bitcoin has reacted to prolonged squeezes with powerful volatility surges.
A similar setup was observed in the fall of 2023, according to chart data from Barchart. At that time, the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands preceded a significant multi-year rally. Bitcoin began trading just above $20,000 before rising over 330%, peaking above $130,000 by mid-2025.
This pattern of compressed volatility frequently marks an inflection point, where price action becomes highly sensitive to external catalysts. Previous squeezes have marked the beginning of rapid bullish cycles, although outcomes can diverge based on broader macroeconomic factors.
Fed signals and the July CPI reportThe latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers for July, released today, matched market expectations and provided fresh direction for traders. The in-line CPI reading reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its September meeting. Fed policymakers have reiterated that the current rate levels are sufficiently restrictive, aiming to guide inflation back toward the 2% target.
Despite the relief brought by the latest inflation data, the market remains cautious. Several unresolved factors could yet influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. These include ongoing tariff impacts, rising energy prices, and elevated demand for technological hardware linked to artificial intelligence development.
Optimistic traders view the potential for a Fed rate pause as a bullish impulse, anticipating that it could revive the favorable price fractal previously seen after similar squeezes. On the other hand, cautious participants point to lingering macroeconomic threats, suggesting that volatility could break to the downside and push Bitcoin back toward the recent low set on July 1 at $57,800.
Traditional finance shifts into Web3Behind the scenes, a broader transformation is also underway as legacy financial practices evolve in response to new technology. While traders closely monitor Bitcoin’s technical parameters, an industry-wide shift can be observed as Wall Street migrates toward Web3 platforms.
Investors now have the ability to hold shares of leading U.S. companies, as well as gold and silver, directly through platforms like 1stepSwap. By tokenizing real-world assets and rapidly sourcing the most competitive market prices, these services remove the need for complex broker networks and traditional intermediaries.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
On August 10, 2026, the Bitcoin Policy Institute, joined by a wide-ranging alliance of more than 40 organizations spanning the digital asset sector, released an open letter directed at the developers of advanced artificial intelligence systems.
The document urges these labs to create reliable channels granting vetted open-source security researchers controlled access to their most capable models.
The timing reflects mounting pressure on the infrastructure that underpins Bitcoin and related networks.
Open-source code forms the backbone of the modern internet and now also anchors financial systems holding well over a trillion dollars in Bitcoin alone, with additional trillions across the broader digital-asset landscape.
Wallets, cryptographic libraries, node software, custody platforms, and payment rails are maintained by a mix of companies, nonprofits, independent developers, and grant-supported teams.
Because many of these assets function as bearer instruments, a successful breach can convert directly into irreversible financial loss, elevating the stakes for continuous, proactive security work.
Frontier AI systems are rapidly altering the balance between offense and defense.
These models excel at scanning extensive codebases, spotting subtle weaknesses, and accelerating technical analysis.
Labs and their selected partners typically gain months of advance exposure to emerging capabilities.
In contrast, many open-source maintainers—including core Bitcoin developers—find themselves at a structural disadvantage.
They often lack entry into internal cyber-research programs and encounter safety restrictions that block legitimate vulnerability hunting on publicly available frontier tools.
As a result, they turn to less powerful open-weight alternatives, limiting the depth and speed of their reviews.
Reports reaching the Bitcoin Policy Institute describe sophisticated actors, potentially including state-linked groups, already leveraging advanced AI to sustain attacks at a tempo that small maintenance teams struggle to match.
Even when systems hold firm, the constant need to respond diverts scarce expertise away from routine development and hardening.
Volunteer efforts using currently available models have already surfaced thousands of potential issues across hundreds of Bitcoin-related projects, demonstrating both the value of AI-assisted auditing and the gap that remains when stronger tools stay out of reach.
Today, Bitcoin Policy Institute and a broad coalition from across the digital-asset ecosystem are publishing an open letter calling on the world’s leading AI labs to provide qualified open-source defenders with trusted access to frontier AI models.
The past several weeks have… pic.twitter.com/4C1tjvGiCe
— Bitcoin Policy Institute (@bitcoinpolicy) August 10, 2026
The letter therefore asks frontier AI laboratories to institute or enlarge standing trusted-access initiatives tailored to qualified defenders of open-source financial infrastructure.
Such programs would offer early, controlled entry to the most cyber-capable models (including pre-release versions where suitable), adequate computing resources for extended analysis, secure settings in which sensitive or embargoed code can be examined, eligibility criteria that encompass independent maintainers and nonprofits alongside larger entities, and direct lines of communication with lab security teams for coordinated disclosure and remediation.
Supporters of the effort include custodians, exchange operators, hardware and software wallet providers, mining firms, research groups, and capital allocators—organizations such as Coinbase, Block, Strategy, MARA, Galaxy, BitGo, Chaincode Labs, OpenSats, Trezor, and many others whose customers and operations rely on the resilience of shared open-source foundations.
The digital asset community has indicated readiness to assist in identifying credible participants, setting practical standards, and coordinating responses when problems surface.
The central argument is straightforward: frontier AI holds the potential to become one of the most effective defensive instruments ever created, yet that potential materializes only when those charged with protecting critical infrastructure can examine new capabilities before adversaries deploy them.
By establishing fair, trusted pathways, AI labs can help ensure that the people safeguarding open financial networks receive a genuine head start rather than remaining perpetually a step behind. The letter invites additional organizations and individuals to add their names at the Bitcoin Policy Institute’s dedicated page, underscoring that collective action is essential as AI continues to reshape the cybersecurity landscape.
Bitcoin’s creation myth usually begins with Satoshi Nakamoto and a nine-page PDF. But a closer look at what really powered the network’s first wave of users points to something far more mundane—and more instructive. In a recent appearance on the Bitcoin Treasuries podcast, longtime core developer Jeff Garzik said the initial ascent didn’t come from the white paper at all. It was a single Slashdot post in July 2010 that gave thousands of technically curious readers a reason to download and run a working piece of code, according to a summary from WuBlockchain.
Garzik’s point isn’t that the white paper was irrelevant. It’s that without an actual, testable implementation—something people could verify on their own machines—Bitcoin would likely have joined the long list of ecash and Hashcash proposals that never crossed the line from idea to asset. “People first confirmed that Bitcoin worked through actual use, and only then did they read the white paper and consider it a work of genius,” Garzik told the podcast. That sequence flips the standard origin story on its head and puts a spotlight on the developers who made the code run, not just the person who drafted the concept.
The Slashdot Effect and the Moment Bitcoin Broke Out On July 11, 2010, a Slashdot post publicizing the release of Bitcoin version 0.3 directed thousands of nerds toward a working peer-to-peer electronic cash system. That burst of traffic wasn’t theoretical. It was the moment the network got a sudden injection of users who installed the client, generated blocks, and began transacting. Garzik says the exposure flipped a switch that no amount of academic discussion could have. Traffic to bitcoin.org surged, the node count climbed, and the price of those early coins—negligible at the time—started to register as something real.
This wasn’t the first Slashdot flair-up for a cryptographic project, but the difference was that Bitcoin arrived with a ready-to-run codebase. In developer activity rankings tracked years later, that early contribution remains the foundation of the entire ecosystem. Without maintainable, openly available source code, the Slashdot moment would have been nothing more than a curiosity.
Running Code Over Theory: A Pattern That Still Holds Garzik’s account underscores a reality that the crypto industry often forgets. White papers can attract attention, but working software is what keeps people around. In 2010, the world wasn’t looking for a new monetary theory. It was looking for something that actually functioned as uncensorable money on the internet. Bitcoin’s source code gave curious coders an immediate, verifiable answer. The white paper came later, serving as documentation rather than revelation.
That same divide still matters. Newer projects routinely launch with polished documents and little else, relying on marketing to drum up volume. The ones that survive, much like Bitcoin, tend to be those where developers ship real code quickly. A recent partnership between UXLINK and Origins Network is a small but telling example: the announcement centered on integration into a decentralized computing network, not a white paper reissue. The market now expects live environments before anyone takes a project seriously.
Still, the crypto sphere has matured into something Garzik might not have envisioned in 2010. Developer activity is one of the few metrics that institutional analysts genuinely trust when evaluating blockchain health. The top networks by commit frequency are almost never the ones that spent years hyping a whitepaper without a testnet. There’s a direct line from the Slashdot-driven influx to the way projects are scrutinized today.
What Remains Uncertain—and Why It Matters Now Even with the clarity Garzik offers, the story has gaps. We don’t know how many of those Slashdot visitors stuck around beyond a few days, or whether another platform—like Reddit or a different mailing list—would have eventually done the same job. The counterfactual is unknowable. What’s certain is that Bitcoin’s survival past that 2010 spike depended on a small core of developers who kept the codebase usable and secure while the world mostly ignored cryptocurrency.
The broader lesson for market watchers is that origin stories are rarely as tidy as they seem. Bitcoin’s success wasn’t a linear path from idea to global adoption. It was messy, dependent on infrastructure that almost no one was paid to build, and propelled by a niche tech community’s curiosity. Meanwhile, the political layer surrounding crypto continues to evolve in ways that make the old “code is law” principle seem quaint. The Senate crypto bill showdown shows just how much the conversation has shifted from the purity of open-source code to hardball lobbying. In 2010, nobody was lobbying. In 2026, the code doesn’t stand alone—it has to navigate a regulatory arena that early contributors never imagined.
For exchanges, protocols, and users, Garzik’s recollection is a quiet reminder that the assets they trade and the networks they rely on weren’t ordained by a whitepaper. They were made real by people who wrote code and by the strangers who decided to run it. That truth gets lost easily in a market now obsessed with ETF flows and token unlocks. It’s worth keeping in view.
AUTHOR
Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.
Cover image via depositphotos.com Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
The leading cryptocurrency has been squeezed into a narrow range around $63,700, while the Bollinger Band Width indicator on the daily chart has contracted to its lowest level since October 2023, pinching the price action into an extreme technical threshold.
In traders' language, this condition is called a "squeeze" — a phase of extremely low volatility that has historically been followed by a powerful price explosion.
Bitcoin price chart since 2023 in context of Bollinger Bands Width indicator, Source: BarchartThe current chart by Barchart draws a direct parallel with the events of three years ago. In the fall of 2023, an identical narrowing of the Bollinger Bands triggered a massive two-year rally. Bitcoin started at levels slightly above $20,000 and ultimately gained more than 330%, reaching a peak above $130,000 by mid-2025.
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Fed factor: How July's CPI report changes the math for Bitcoin's next moveNow the historical spring has once again been compressed to its limit, and the market has finally received a powerful external catalyst. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, released today, came in line with market expectations.
As observers note, the report reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve and gives officials room to keep interest rates unchanged at their September meeting. Fed officials emphasize that current rates are already restrictive enough to return inflation to the 2% target without further increases.
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However, market participants remain divided, as persistent tariffs, pressure from energy prices, and massive demand for technology equipment driven by the artificial intelligence boom complicate the long-term outlook.
Optimists expect a Fed pause to trigger a repeat of Bitcoin's bullish fractal, while skeptics warn that macroeconomic risks could still reverse this volatile impulse to the downside, potentially forcing a retest of the price floor set on July 1 at $57,800.
Lider kripto para Bitcoin, son 12 ayda yüzde 46,98 oranında düşüş yaşadı. Buna karşın spot Bitcoin ETF’lerine Ocak 2024’teki lansmandan bu yana toplam 52,098 milyar dolarlık giriş gerçekleşti.
Piyasadaki kurumsal para akışına rağmen uzun vadeli yatırımcıların Bitcoin arzındaki payı gerilemeye devam ediyor. Bunun yanında büyük yatırımcıların son dönemde güçlü alımlar gerçekleştirmesi, kripto para piyasasında farklı yatırımcı gruplarının birbirinden ayrıştığını gösteriyor.
Bitcoin’de Uzun Vadeli Yatırımcılar Satıyor Mu? CryptoQuant verileri, uzun vadeli yatırımcı grubuna giren Bitcoin miktarının 37,4 bin BTC seviyesinde olduğunu gösteriyor. Bu veri, belirli miktarda BTC’nin uzun vadeli elde tutma eğilimindeki yatırımcıların cüzdanlarına taşındığına işaret ediyor.
Ancak girişler, uzun vadeli yatırımcı grubundan çıkan Bitcoin miktarını karşılamakta yeterli görünmüyor. Eski coinler harcandığında veya satıldığında LTH sınıflandırmasından çıkıyor ve çıkışlar girişleri aştığında toplam LTH bakiyesi düşüyor.
Dolayısıyla bazı uzun vadeli yatırımcıların kâr realizasyonu yaptığı veya ellerindeki varlıkları piyasaya sunduğu değerlendirilebilir. Bu durum doğrudan uzun vadeli yatırımcıların tamamen düşüş beklentisine girdiği anlamına gelmese de satış tarafında hâlâ etkili olduklarını gösteriyor.
65 Bin Dolar Seviyesi Bitcoin İçin Neden Önemli? Glassnode tarafından paylaşılan değerlendirmeye göre Bitcoin 65 bin dolar civarında istikrar kazanmaya başladı. Bu durum, satış baskısının önceki döneme kıyasla hafiflediğini ve piyasanın yeni bir denge alanı oluşturmaya çalıştığını gösteriyor.
Ancak toparlanma henüz güçlü bir görünüm sergilemiyor. Zincir üzerindeki aktivitenin ve spot piyasa likiditesinin düşük kalması, alıcıların henüz piyasaya geniş çapta dönmediğine işaret ediyor.
Örneğin incelenen dönemde spot işlem hacmi 4 milyar dolardan 3,4 milyar dolara geriledi. Hacimdeki bu düşüş, son fiyat hareketlerine piyasa genelinde güçlü bir katılım olmadığını ve Bitcoin’in konsolidasyon sürecinde kalabileceğini gösteriyor.
Bitcoin Balinaları Neden Daha Fazla Alım Yapıyor? Bitcoin’de en dikkat çekici gelişmelerden biri ise büyük yatırımcıların son dönemdeki birikimi oldu. 9 Ağustos tarihinde 10 bin BTC’den fazla tutan adresler toplam 46.420 BTC biriktirdi.
Bu rakam, mart ayının ortasında görülen 23.238 BTC’lik önceki zirvenin neredeyse iki katına denk geliyor. Ayrıca söz konusu miktar, 15 Mart’tan bu yana kaydedilen en yüksek 60 günlük balina birikimini oluşturuyor.
Buna karşılık 0,1 ile 1 BTC arasında varlık tutan adresler yaklaşık 9.700 BTC dağıttı. Bu grup, 5 Temmuz’da 11.600 BTC biriktirmişti. Böylece küçük yatırımcılarla büyük yatırımcıların mevcut piyasa davranışları arasında belirgin bir ayrışma ortaya çıktı.
Bitcoin İçin Piyasa Görünümü Ne Söylüyor? Mevcut veriler Bitcoin açısından tek yönlü bir tablo sunmuyor. Bir tarafta uzun vadeli yatırımcıların arzı azalırken diğer tarafta büyük balinalar yüksek miktarda BTC biriktiriyor.
Spot Bitcoin ETF’lerinde lansmandan bu yana gerçekleşen 52,098 milyar dolarlık giriş de kurumsal talebin tamamen ortadan kalkmadığını ortaya koyuyor. Ancak düşük spot hacmi, toparlanmanın henüz geniş tabanlı bir talep tarafından desteklenmediğini gösteriyor.
Bu nedenle 65 bin dolar bölgesi kısa vadede takip edilmesi gereken önemli bir seviye olarak öne çıkıyor. Bitcoin’in bu bölgede kalıcılık sağlayıp sağlayamayacağı ve balina birikiminin devam edip etmeyeceği, piyasanın sonraki yönü açısından kritik olacak.
Bu içerik kesinlikle yatırım tavsiyesi niteliği taşımamaktadır. Piyasalar yüksek risk içermektedir ve yatırım kararlarınızı almadan önce kendi araştırmanızı yapmanız önemlidir.
Son Dakika kripto para haberleri için hemen tıkla.
Konu ile ilgili yorumlarınızı bize yazabilirsiniz. Ayrıca, bu tarz bilgilendirici içeriklerin devamının gelmesini isterseniz, bizleri Telegram, Youtube ve Twitter kanallarımızdan takip edebilirsiniz.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) miners are increasingly looking beyond crypto mining toward AI infrastructure, as access to massive amounts of power becomes potentially more valuable than the BTC mining machines plugged into it.
Are Mining Economics Less Attractive?In a podcast on Aug. 12, prominent crypto investor and "Wolf of All Streets" host Scott Melker argued on what may have been miners’ most valuable resource all along.
His commentary comes after Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) reportedly signed a $9.1 billion, 20-year data center agreement with Anthropic. The agreement could rise to $16.1 billion if extension options are exercised.
The deal represents one of the clearest examples yet of Bitcoin miners repurposing their power-rich infrastructure for the booming AI computing market.
Melker said miners’ biggest asset may not be mining equipment but access to electricity and infrastructure capable of supporting energy-intensive computing.
Riot’s own numbers help explain the attraction. The company reported an average cost to mine Bitcoin of $49,912 during Q2, excluding depreciation, up from $48,992 a year earlier. Riot produced 1,587 BTC during the quarter.
Melker noted that once depreciation and other expenses are considered, the economics of mining become substantially less attractive, particularly with Bitcoin trading well below its October 2025 all-time high.
Other BTC miners have also been exploring AI and high-performance computing opportunities, turning what was once primarily a Bitcoin-mining infrastructure story into a broader race to monetize scarce power capacity.
What Does It Mean For Bitcoin?Melker argued the shift could create an unexpected positive for Bitcoin despite reducing the incentive for large U.S. miners to dedicate their infrastructure exclusively to BTC.
If major publicly traded mining companies redirect capacity toward AI, Bitcoin’s hash rate could become distributed across a broader set of operators.
That could potentially reduce concerns about mining concentration among a relatively small number of large corporate players, though lower mining participation would not automatically guarantee greater decentralization.
For investors, however, Riot’s deal illustrates a more immediate change. The valuation case for some Bitcoin miners is increasingly becoming an AI infrastructure thesis rather than simply a leveraged bet on Bitcoin.
Riot still generated most of its latest quarterly revenue from Bitcoin mining, but the Anthropic agreement represents its largest step yet toward becoming a high-performance computing and data center operator.
The transition suggests the next major competition among Bitcoin miners may not simply be over who can mine BTC most efficiently.
It may be over who controls the electricity, land and grid connections needed to power the AI boom.
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A prominent trader notes that the Clarity Act will play the same role crypto ETFs served in the last cycle, and Bitcoin could bottom out and rally ahead of the bill’s passage.
Prominent trader Killa posted that during the last bull run, Bitcoin began recovering from lows ahead of ETF rumors and formal approval, emphasizing markets typically price in positive news in advance. This cycle could follow a similar pattern: the current "Clarity Act" (Regulatory Clarity Act) is shaping a new narrative. "If it indeed acts as a catalyst, it will likely mark the start of BTC’s first meaningful rally phase since the recovery from the prior bear market, and its approval will soon push Bitcoin to a new all-time high (ATH)—just like the ETF approval did," Killa noted. A BTC-focused quantitative trader, Killa correctly predicted the peak of this bull run in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, then switched to a long position during the broad market sell-off on June 5.
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Bitcoin sıfırlanabilir mi? Norveç’in yaklaşık 2 trilyon dolarlık devlet varlık fonunun CEO’su Nicolai Tangen’in küresel piyasalardaki aşırı risklere ilişkin uyarısı bu soruyu yeniden gündeme taşıdı. Ancak Tangen’in açıklaması doğrudan Bitcoin’e yönelik bir tahmin değil. Tangen, dünyanın en büyük varlık fonlarından birinin bile aşırı bir piyasa çöküşü senaryosunda tamamen değer kaybedebileceğini söyledi. Fonun Bitcoin’e dolaylı maruziyeti bulunması ise açıklamayı kripto yatırımcıları açısından dikkat çekici hale getiriyor.
Peki böyle bir küresel çöküş Bitcoin’i ne kadar etkiler? BTC sert bir satış dalgasıyla karşılaşabilir. Ancak Bitcoin’in sıfıra yaklaşması için yalnızca fiyatların düşmesi yeterli olmaz; ağın güvenliği, kullanım alanı ve ekonomik değerinin de büyük ölçüde ortadan kalkması gerekir.
Norveç Fonu Neden Böyle Bir Senaryoyu Konuşuyor? Norveç’in Government Pension Fund Global adlı fonu, ülkenin petrol ve doğal gaz gelirlerini küresel piyasalarda değerlendiriyor.
Fonun 2025 sonundaki portföyünün %71,3’ü hisselerden, %26,5’i sabit getirili varlıklardan, %1,7’si gayrimenkulden ve %0,4’ü yenilenebilir altyapı yatırımlarından oluşuyordu. Fon 2025’i %15,1 getiriyle tamamladı.
Tangen’in endişesi bu yüksek hisse ağırlığıyla bağlantılı. Küresel borsalarda çok sert bir çöküş yaşanması hâlinde fonun değeri de ciddi biçimde gerileyebilir.
Üstelik Tangen, mevcut piyasa ortamında 1929 öncesi döneme bazı benzerlikler gördüğünü söyledi. Özellikle tarifeler ve küresel ticaret gerilimlerine dikkat çekti. Buna karşın şirketlerin tedarik zincirlerini güçlendirdiğini ve ekonominin beklenenden daha dayanıklı çıktığını da kabul etti.
Ve Norveç Varlık Fonu doğrudan Bitcoin satın almıyor. Ancak Strategy, Marathon Digital, Metaplanet, Coinbase ve Block gibi Bitcoin bağlantılı şirketlerdeki hisseleri üzerinden BTC’ye dolaylı maruz kalıyor. K33 Research’e göre fonun 2025 sonundaki dolaylı Bitcoin maruziyeti 9.573 BTC, yaklaşık 837 milyon dolar değerindeydi.
Bitcoin Böyle Bir Çöküşte Ne Yaşar? Küresel piyasalarda sert bir riskten kaçış yaşanması Bitcoin’i de etkileyebilir. Çünkü BTC, özellikle yoğun satış dönemlerinde teknoloji hisseleri ve diğer riskli varlıklarla birlikte hareket edebiliyor.
Bu nedenle bir küresel kriz senaryosunda Bitcoin’in ciddi değer kaybetmesi şaşırtıcı olmaz.
Ancak burada kritik nokta “Bitcoin düşer mi?” değil, “Bitcoin’in altında onu sıfıra götürecek yapısal bir sorun oluşur mu?” sorusu.
Bir piyasa çöküşü Bitcoin’in fiyatını düşürebilir. Bunun tek başına ağın çalışmadığı veya varlığın ekonomik değerini tamamen kaybettiği anlamına gelmesi gerekmiyor.
Örneğin küresel bir kriz sırasında ETF yatırımcılarının satış yapması, madencilerin maliyet baskısıyla karşılaşması veya şirketlerin Bitcoin varlıklarını azaltması fiyat üzerinde ciddi baskı yaratabilir. Ancak ağ çalışmaya, kullanıcılar işlem yapmaya ve piyasada Bitcoin için alıcılar bulunmaya devam ettiği sürece bu durum tek başına “Bitcoin sıfırlanıyor” anlamına gelmez.
Bitcoin’in Sıfıra Gitmesi İçin Ne Olması Gerekir? Bitcoin’in sıfıra gitmesi teorik olarak mümkün. Ancak bunun gerçekleşmesi sıradan bir ayı piyasasından çok daha ağır bir senaryo gerektirir.
Kapsamlı düzenleyici yasaklar, Bitcoin protokolünü kalıcı biçimde sarsacak kritik bir açık, gelecekte ortaya çıkabilecek güçlü kuantum bilgisayarların imza sistemine yönelik tehdidi veya daha geniş ölçekte benimsenen alternatif teknolojiler böyle bir senaryoyu gündeme getirebilir.
Buna karşılık Bitcoin’in merkeziyetsiz yapısı, geniş kullanıcı ve node ağı, madencilik altyapısı ve geleneksel finansla artan entegrasyonu, sıfıra gidiş ihtimalini zorlaştıran unsurlar arasında yer alıyor. Ağın çok sayıda bağımsız node tarafından doğrulanması, Bitcoin’in tek bir kurum tarafından tamamen kontrol edilmesini veya durdurulmasını son derece zorlaştırıyor.
Kuantum riski ise daha farklı bir tehdit oluşturuyor. Buradaki risk doğrudan SHA-256’nın kırılması değil; yeterince güçlü kuantum bilgisayarların Bitcoin’in kullandığı secp256k1 imza sistemini hedefleyebilmesi. Bunun ne zaman pratik bir tehdide dönüşeceği ise belirsiz.
Bu nedenle “Bitcoin yüzde 50 düşebilir” ile “Bitcoin sıfıra gider” arasında teknik ve ekonomik açıdan çok büyük bir fark bulunuyor.
Google’da “Bitcoin Sıfıra” Aramaları Ne Söylüyor? Bitcoin’in sıfıra gitme ihtimali yalnızca yatırımcıların değil, Google kullanıcılarının da zaman zaman yoğun biçimde merak ettiği bir konu.
CoinDesk’in Google Trends verilerine dayanan analizine göre ABD’de “bitcoin zero” aramaları Şubat 2026’da rekor seviyeye çıktı. Benzer arama artışları 2021 ve 2022’de de Bitcoin’deki yerel diplerle aynı döneme denk gelmişti. Ancak Google Trends mutlak arama sayısını değil, seçilen dönem içindeki göreceli ilgiyi ölçtüğü için bu veri tek başına fiyatın dip yaptığını göstermiyor.
Yani “Bitcoin sıfıra mı gidiyor?” sorusunun Google’da sık sorulması, daha çok yatırımcı korkusunun yükseldiğini gösteren bir veri olarak okunmalı.
Bitcoin İçin Asıl Risk Ne? Norveç fonunun uyarısı Bitcoin’in sıfıra gideceğini göstermiyor. Asıl risk, küresel piyasalarda büyük bir satış dalgasının başlaması hâlinde Bitcoin’in de diğer riskli varlıklarla birlikte değer kaybetmesi.
Tangen’in açıklamasının Bitcoin açısından önemli tarafı da burada. Yaklaşık 2 trilyon dolarlık bir fonun yöneticisi bile piyasaların mevcut risklerini “normal” görmüyor ve aşırı bir senaryoya hazırlıklı olunması gerektiğini söylüyor.
Sonuç olarak Bitcoin’in sıfırlanması teorik olarak mümkün olsa da mevcut veriler böyle bir senaryonun gerçekleştiğini göstermiyor. Daha gerçekçi risk, küresel bir riskten kaçış dalgasının Bitcoin’de sert bir satış yaratması. Bitcoin’in sıfıra gitmesi ise bunun çok ötesinde, ağın ve varlığın temel ekonomik değerinin tamamen ortadan kalkmasını gerektiren uç bir senaryo.
Bu içerik genel piyasa verilerine dayanır ve yatırım tavsiyesi değildir. Kendi araştırmanızı yapmanızı öneririz.
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Bitcoin has found a temporary footing around $64,000 following a sharp sell-off, yet the cryptocurrency’s technical and market indicators suggest a clear bullish trend has not taken hold.
Technical resistance and moving averagesCurrently, Bitcoin trades just below $64,000, closely shadowing its 50-day moving average at $64,122 and well beneath the 100-day average of $66,682. The significant 200-day moving average, which many investors view as a barometer for long-term market direction, stands at approximately $72,017.
This configuration points to persistent short-term resistance and an overall negative trend. While Bitcoin has rebounded from June’s lows below $60,000, it continues to chart lower highs and lacks the momentum needed to reverse the broader downtrend. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at around 49.6, signaling neutral market sentiment rather than strong buyer interest.
Broader market indicators remain cautiousMomentum across the market remains muted, with few signs supporting a decisive breakout. CryptoQuant’s latest heatmap aggregates several technical and valuation metrics, including Thermocap Multiple, NVM Ratio, Profit and Loss (PnL) Index, Bollinger Percent, Pi Cycle Top, and weekly RSI, and continues to identify prevailing bearish conditions in the market.
In addition, the one-year Realized Net P&L and apparent demand indicators underline the absence of bullish signals, despite showing some moderation compared to earlier in the year. A few on-chain data points such as the MVRV Z-Score, Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), Adjusted SOPR, LTH/STH SOPR Ratio, and Mayer Multiple now indicate neutral market status instead of outright bearishness.
Mini dictionary: CryptoQuant, an on-chain data analytics platform, tracks and analyzes real-time blockchain and market signals for digital assets, providing insights that help investors interpret broader cryptocurrency trends.
To confirm a meaningful recovery, Bitcoin needs to first reclaim the $66,000-$67,000 range before testing the 200-day moving average near $72,000.
Bullish momentum yet to materializeThe market has transitioned from sustained negative sentiment to a more neutral posture, reflecting the reduction in selling pressure. However, analysts caution that neutralization does not equate to a renewed bullish phase. A persistent move above resistance levels, particularly over the 200-day moving average, could reshape the outlook, but such a shift has not yet occurred.
Until these crucial levels are regained, Bitcoin’s stabilization around $64,000 is seen as only an initial requirement for a new bullish trend, not a confirmation. The alignment of price, momentum, demand, and on-chain metrics remains necessary for the cryptocurrency to transition back into a sustained uptrend.
IndicatorBullish/Neutral/Bearish50-day Moving AverageResistance100-day Moving AverageResistance200-day Moving AverageKey major resistanceDaily RSINeutralThermocap Multiple, Pi Cycle Top, etc.BearishMVRV Z-Score, NUPL, SOPR RatiosNeutralAs buyers and sellers continue to weigh the shifting landscape, market watchers are looking for a decisive move through resistance to signal any shift in trend direction.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The July U.S. CPI inflation data has come in line with expectations, further easing concerns of a Fed rate hike this year. Bitcoin has rebounded today amid the release of the inflation data, climbing above the psychological $64,000 level.
U.S. CPI Inflation Falls to 3.4%, Bitcoin Rebounds U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the consumer price index fell to 3.4% year-over-year (YoY) in July, in line with expectations. The index also fell to 0.1% month-over-month (MoM), in line with expectations.
Meanwhile, core CPI fell to 2.5% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both in line with expectations. Bitcoin has rebounded amid the release of the inflation data, which has further eased concerns that the Fed will hike rates this year.
The leading crypto is currently trading at around $64,100, up from an intraday low of around $63,400, according to TradingView data. Bitcoin, however, continues to trade in a tight range amid uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on energy prices.
Source: TradingView As CoinGape reported yesterday, Fed President Austan Goolsbee called inflation the economy’s biggest challenge right now, signaling that he may support rate hikes. Fed President Neel Kashkari, an FOMC voting member, called for rate hikes to combat inflation.
Odds Of A Rate Hike Fall The odds of a Fed rate hike at the September FOMC meeting have further fallen following the release of the CPI inflation data, representing a positive for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Prediction market data shows a 67% chance that rates will remain unchanged following the meeting.
Data from the top crypto prediction market platform Polymarket also shows that the odds of a rate hike this year have fallen to 54%, down from a recent high of 60%. The odds of a hike had climbed to as high as 79% in July as the U.S.-Iran war escalated again.
Source: Polymarket Attention will now turn to tomorrow’s PPI inflation release, which would further provide insights into the current state of inflation in the country. A soft PPI inflation print could further ease fears of a hike, especially with the July jobs report signaling that the labor market remains unstable.
Bitcoin jumped about 1.3% to $64,500 after July US CPI data showed inflation cooling modestly, but the move quickly faded as prices fell below $64,000.
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Consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier, compared with 3.5% in June, while the monthly CPI increased 0.1% after declining 0.4% in the prior month, according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Underlying inflation also moderated, with the core CPI rising 0.2% in July and 2.5% annually, down from 2.6% in June. Shelter prices accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly CPI gain, making housing the largest contributor to inflation.
The data showed that inflation remains sticky in several categories despite overall moderation.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
It’s been five years since El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender.
President Nayib Bukele announced the plan at the Bitcoin conference in Miami on June 5, 2021, to the jubilant cries and applause of the Bitcoin community, who hailed the tiny Central American nation as living proof that BTC could be sovereign money.
Bukele sold the experiment as a way to bank the unbanked, slash remittance costs, and attract investment to the impoverished nation.
But five years on, who did the experiment benefit, and what did it actually achieve?
Dr. Tobias Boos, a senior scientist at the University of Vienna who leads a research project examining the political economy of Bitcoin in El Salvador, tells Magazine:
“There is little doubt that the project was a failure if we take seriously the reasons Bukele gave for its adoption. Foreign direct investment in this sector didn’t increase, it did not effectively bank the unbanked, and it is not widely used for remittances.”Yet El Salvador’s Bitcoin bet undeniably changed the conversation around the world’s number-one cryptocurrency, and turned nation-state adoption from a theoretical possibility into a living, breathing reality. Whether it succeeded or failed depends on what you think El Salvador was trying to achieve.
Five years into El Salvador’s Bitcoin betIn a video message played at Bitcoin 2021, Bukele said the adoption of Bitcoin would generate jobs in the short term and “help provide financial inclusion to thousands outside the formal economy.”
Today, the evidence for mass adoption is difficult to square with that ambition.
Research by Boos, Grigera and Schmid in 2025 found that the Salvadorans who adopted Bitcoin tended to be young, male, urban, more highly educated, and, perhaps more importantly, already banked. Boos concludes that, “Mass adoption by citizens did not occur.”
El Salvador had one of the region’s lowest levels of banking access at the time, with just 35.9% of people over 15 holding a bank account in 2021, according to World Bank data.
Account ownership at a financial institution (% of population ages 15+) - El Salvador. Source: World Bank
Yet the government’s Chivo Bitcoin wallet did little to solve the problem: it could transfer funds to bank accounts, but didn’t remove the underlying barriers preventing unbanked Salvadorans from accessing the financial system in the first place.
According to Boos and his colleagues, the same problem emerged with remittances, another pillar of Bukele’s pitch. In 2024, remittances accounted for around 24% of El Salvador’s gross domestic product, with the United States providing a full 98% of the total. But El Salvador adopted USD as its official currency more than 20 years ago, and having most remittances arrive from a country with the same currency removed one of the major cost reductions that Bitcoin could theoretically offer: currency conversion.
Despite the promise that Bitcoin could make these transfers cheaper, crypto wallets accounted for barely 1% of remittances by 2024, down from a peak of 1.7% in 2020-21.
It suggests the government’s early efforts to stimulate adoption failed to translate into sustained use. Chivo offered users $30 in Bitcoin for signing up, but the National Bureau of Economic Research’s nationally representative research found that more than 60% of early Chivo users never made another transaction after spending their free BTC.
Joe Nakamoto, a Bitcoin-focused journalist who has repeatedly reported from El Salvador, found a similar disconnect on the ground.
In a recent video documenting one of his visits, he said he tested Bitcoin acceptance at 21 shops in a San Salvador mall, and found that only four accepted Bitcoin, and just one did so smoothly. He tells Magazine:
“It’s very, very hard, borderline impossible to genuinely live on Bitcoin in El Salvador. Unless you’re just eating pupusas on the beach in El Zonte, and then going across to the other Bitcoin circular economies and finding workarounds.” When the IMF pulled the plugThe government has also faced international pressure to retreat from its Bitcoin experiment. In December 2024, it reached a $1.4 billion financing agreement with the International Monetary Fund, under which it agreed to scale back its involvement in Bitcoin.
El Salvador’s experiment with Bitcoin as Legal Tender. Source: NBER
The deal was approved in February 2025, and in January, the government amended its Bitcoin law to make acceptance voluntary, require taxes to be paid in US dollars and limit public sector involvement in Bitcoin-related activities, effectively dismantling the most radical parts of Bukele’s experiment.
While Bitcoin could still be used voluntarily, the state no longer compelled businesses to accept it or used it as part of the country’s public financial system.
The IMF later found that Bitcoin had produced “no evidence” of a beneficial use case for the unbanked and had had minimal impact on financial inclusion. Boos says:
“The ‘soft adoption,’ as we refer to it in one of our articles, never led to mass adoption for payments. I am not aware of any instances where tax payments were made using Bitcoin, and the infrastructure has largely remained unused.” What Bitcoin actually did achieveIf El Salvador failed to turn Bitcoin into everyday money, it still managed something no country had done before: it made nation-state Bitcoin adoption real.
Before 2021, the idea of a government adopting Bitcoin was still largely hypothetical; El Salvador made it real. As Samson Mow, chief executive of Bitcoin infrastructure firm JAN3, tells Magazine:
“The question in front of every president or finance minister shifted from whether a sovereign could hold Bitcoin to why it hadn’t.” The experiment also thrust El Salvador into the center of the global Bitcoin movement, with many prominent Bitcoiners, including Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert, making Bitcoin country their new home. Herbert later became director of El Salvador’s National Bitcoin Office, showing just how closely intertwined parts of the Bitcoin movement have become with the government.
Bitcoin Beach, the grassroots project in El Zonte that predated the national experiment, is still one of the clearest examples of a functioning Bitcoin economy, with local businesses, hotels and tourism operators continuing to accept Bitcoin, even after the government made acceptance voluntary.
Nakamoto’s reporting has also documented several concrete success stories for everyday Salvadorans, including Mama Rosa, who saves Bitcoin from her pupusa stand, and Napo, who expanded from one taxi to a fleet.
Bukele’s government even went further than simply holding BTC on its balance sheet or making it legal tender by promoting plans for Volcano Bonds and Bitcoin City.
After repeated delays, the IMF agreement effectively kneecapped those projects’ progress, but the symbolic impact still matters. Mow explains:
“Bitcoin gained a proof of concept, and El Salvador gained a global platform.” There’s also an important distinction between what El Salvador achieved for Bitcoin and what Bitcoin achieved for El Salvador.
Boos argues that the symbolic significance has largely been “for” the international Bitcoin community, rather than evidence of economic success “in” El Salvador. Nakamoto says:
“It looks more like a marketing campaign for foreigners than a genuine economic strategy for Salvadorans. It’s beautiful branding, pointed at people with the passports and the capital. Bukele is a razor-sharp operator. He knows exactly who’s watching and who’s clapping. The Bitcoin country strategy, it’s not for them. It breaks my heart to say it, but it’s for us.” The uncomfortable part: Bitcoin and BukelePerhaps the hardest question is what El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment says about the relationship between Bitcoiners’ ideals of individual freedom and the government that imposed it.
IMF Executive Board approves 40-month fund facility. Source: IMF
Bukele has concentrated power during his time in office, and the state of emergency introduced to combat gang violence in March 2022 remains in place more than four years later.
Human Rights Watch says the government has continued to remove checks on executive power, and local and international human rights groups have documented mass arbitrary detention and due process violations under the state of emergency.
But judging Bukele only through that lens risks missing why he remains so popular at home. El Salvador was once in the grip of powerful gangs, with many Salvadorans living with daily threats of extortion, violence and death. The official homicide rate fell from 53.1 per 100,000 people the year he took office, to just 1.3 per 100,000 in 2025.
Bukele’s crackdown has transformed public security, and many Salvadorans view the trade-off between security and civil liberties very differently from critics abroad. Nakamoto says:
“It’s a country that has serious scars. Bukele has saved the nation in many ways. He kicked out the gangs and also he has done wonderful things for Bitcoin in terms of putting it on the world map.” While Mow acknowledges the positive impact of Bukele’s gang crackdown, he says the broader implications of normalizing emergency powers cannot be ignored:
“In the hands of someone with restraint, those same powers can accomplish real things, like El Salvador’s crackdown on the gangs. But it’s important to think ahead. What serves a leader with restraint today can just as easily serve one without restraint once there’s a change of guard.”For Bitcoiners, that leaves an uncomfortable tension. El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has become inseparable from the government that made it possible, and from a president whose record is far more complicated than the Bitcoin success story alone suggests.
That may ultimately be the most difficult part of assessing El Salvador five years on: Bitcoin gave Bukele a global platform, and Bukele gave Bitcoin something it had never had before — a nation-state willing to put it at the center of its economic strategy.
Magazine: Strategy became a symbol of the dot-com crash: Could history repeat?
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With over four years of experience in covering and tracking the financial markets, Sneha Agrawal is a dedicated Crypto Journalist and Editor with passion for researching and writing the crypto pieces. She is currently leading the Block of Fame, here at CoinGape. She likes to keep track of political, legal and financial happenings all around the world - without which she deems her day incomplete. Apart from her Journalistic endeavours, she is a solo traveler, museum goer, and a keen reader of books.
Bitcoin is easy enough to buy these days, and holding it is hardly unusual anymore, but actually spending it still feels awkward in a way that most other digital payments do not.
If you pay with a card or Apple Pay, the shop gets an answer almost immediately. With a normal Bitcoin payment, the merchant may need to wait for the transaction to appear on-chain, decide how many confirmations are enough and deal with whatever network fee happens to be attached at the time. That is manageable for a large transfer, but it is not ideal when somebody is trying to buy a coffee or pay for an online order.
GoBTC Pay is GoMining’s attempt to make that process feel much more normal. The customer pays in Bitcoin, the merchant receives an immediate approval and the actual Bitcoin settlement happens later in the background. Customers are not charged a direct payment fee, merchants pay 0.2%, and the spending wallet uses a 2-of-3 multisignature setup rather than giving one company complete control over the funds.
In the Bitcoin payments market, GoBTC Pay sits in the same general space as Square’s Bitcoin payment service, although the two products work quite differently and are nowhere near the same scale. Square uses the Lightning Network and can convert Bitcoin payments into fiat, while GoBTC Pay settles on Bitcoin’s base layer and is more suited to merchants that want to receive BTC directly.
While the approach taken by GoBTC Pay is interesting, its success will depend on how well it works in practice. The product still needs to show that ordinary businesses can adopt it without too much hassle and that customers find it simple enough to use regularly.
My verdict on GoBTC Pay GoBTC Pay has a good use case, as it aims to make paying with Bitcoin feel more like using a card by giving merchants immediate approval while the transaction settles later.
From the customer’s point of view, that should make paying with Bitcoin feel much closer to using a card or mobile wallet. You scan a QR code or open a payment link, check the amount, approve it and move on. There is no awkward pause while the cashier waits for a confirmation.
The fee model is also easy to understand, since customers pay no direct fee when using the protocol, while merchants pay 0.2% of the transaction. If the payment comes through a third-party wallet, half of that fee goes to miners and the other half goes to the wallet provider.
That revenue split is a smart part of the model because wallet companies are more likely to integrate a new payment system when there is a clear financial reason to do so. Instead of asking wallets to add GoBTC Pay purely for the good of the ecosystem, GoMining is offering them a share of the activity they bring in.
The product is still early, though, and that matters more than the technical design. A payment network can be beautifully built and still struggle if customers rarely find anywhere to use it. GoMining reportedly planned to begin with a small group of merchants, so GoBTC Pay still has a long way to go before it becomes something people can use regularly.
There is also more going on under the hood than the word “non-custodial” may suggest. GoMining cannot move the customer’s balance by itself, which is important, but normal payments still rely on its co-signature. The settlement process also includes a stage where the authorised amount is held in a GoMining-controlled output before the merchant receives its payout.
Overall, I think GoBTC Pay is promising. The pricing is appealing, the payment flow makes sense and the product is trying to solve a real problem rather than inventing one. Its success will depend on whether GoMining can bring in enough merchants, attract major wallet partners and prove that settlement remains reliable as usage grows.
GoBTC Pay at a glance CategoryDetailsProduct typeBitcoin payment protocolDeveloperGoMiningCurrent statusEarly accessCustomer payment fee0%Merchant fee0.2%Checkout responseImmediate approvalFinal settlementBitcoin Layer 1Wallet setup2-of-3 multisignatureKey holdersUser, GoMining and recovery providerPayment methodsQR code, payment link and online checkoutIntegrationsMerchant API and wallet SDKIdentity checksID information, sanctions screening and face scan What is GoBTC Pay? GoBTC Pay is a Bitcoin payment system developed by GoMining, the company best known for its mining products and infrastructure.
The product is broader than a simple wallet. Customers can use the GoBTC Pay app to hold and spend Bitcoin, merchants can accept payments through physical or online checkouts, and outside wallets can add the same payment system through an SDK.
That wider approach is important because no payment product is going to become mainstream if every shop needs its own app. GoMining clearly wants GoBTC Pay to become a payment layer that other wallets, exchanges and fintech platforms can plug into.
In practice, that means somebody could eventually pay through a wallet they already use instead of moving everything into GoMining’s own app. The protocol is designed to support both custodial and multisignature wallet setups, which gives potential partners some flexibility in how they build it into their existing products.
GoBTC Pay also keeps the final settlement on Bitcoin. It does not move the payment onto a sidechain, turn BTC into a wrapped token or rely on a separate cryptocurrency. GoMining handles the approval and batching process, while the final settlement remains a normal Bitcoin transaction.
For users who care about staying close to Bitcoin’s base layer, that will be one of the main attractions.
How GoBTC Pay compares with Square GoBTC Pay and Square are both trying to make Bitcoin payments fast enough for everyday use, although they take very different approaches to the checkout and settlement process.
When it comes to fees, Square currently charges no processing fee for Bitcoin payments through 2026, with a 1% fee due to apply afterward; it also currently limits Bitcoin payments to $600 per transaction. GoBTC Pay’s 0.2% rate is therefore lower than Square’s announced long-term rate, although Square is temporarily cheaper during its fee-free rollout
Square uses the Lightning Network, which processes payments through off-chain channels and is already widely understood within the Bitcoin payments space. Its service can convert the customer’s Bitcoin into dollars for the merchant, which means a business can accept BTC without actually holding it.
GoBTC Pay is aimed at a slightly different type of merchant. Its core system is built around the business receiving Bitcoin, while any conversion into pounds, dollars or euros happens separately.
That makes GoBTC Pay more likely to appeal to Bitcoin-native companies, miners, online services and businesses that already want BTC on their balance sheets. A conventional retailer may prefer Square because automatic fiat conversion is simpler and removes the risk of Bitcoin’s price moving after the sale.
Square also has a huge distribution advantage because its payment terminals and software are already used by a large number of businesses. GoBTC Pay is starting from a much smaller base, so it needs to give merchants and wallets a strong enough reason to make the switch or support both.
Its answer is a low merchant fee, native Bitcoin settlement and a payment system tied directly to GoMining’s infrastructure. That combination gives GoBTC Pay a clear target, although I would still describe it as a niche competitor rather than a direct replacement for Square across the wider retail market.
How GoBTC Pay works The simplest way to understand GoBTC Pay is to split the process into two parts. The first part is the instant approval at the checkout, and the second is the Bitcoin settlement that happens later.
The customer funds a spending wallet The customer’s GoBTC Pay balance sits in a 2-of-3 multisignature wallet.
One key belongs to the user, one belongs to GoMining and the third belongs to an independent recovery provider. Any transaction needs two of those three keys.
During normal use, the customer signs the payment and GoMining adds the second signature. This stops GoMining from moving the user’s funds on its own, while the recovery provider also cannot do anything by itself.
The trade-off is that the user cannot make a normal payment from the GoBTC Pay balance using only their own key. They either need GoMining to co-sign or they have to go through the recovery process.
For that reason, I would treat the GoBTC Pay balance as an everyday spending wallet rather than somewhere to keep your entire Bitcoin holding. Keeping a smaller amount there makes the setup easier to use without exposing more BTC than you actually need for payments.
The merchant creates a payment request When the customer reaches the checkout, the merchant creates a request containing the price and order details.
In a physical shop, that could appear as a QR code or NFC request. Online, the merchant can use a payment link or build GoBTC Pay into the checkout.
The customer opens the request in a compatible wallet and checks the merchant and amount before approving anything.
GoMining updates the customer’s payment total This is where the system becomes more technical, although the basic idea is not too difficult once you strip away the jargon.
GoBTC Pay keeps track of the customer’s unsettled purchases as one running total.
Imagine that you have already authorised £40 in payments and now want to spend another £10. Instead of preparing a completely separate settlement for the new purchase, GoMining creates an updated total of £50.
It does this through a partially signed Bitcoin transaction, usually called a PSBT. The wallet shows the customer the new purchase and the total amount that has now been authorised.
Each new payment replaces the previous state, so GoMining only needs the latest valid version when it eventually settles the account. That keeps the process more efficient because the company does not need to put every small purchase on-chain separately.
The customer also remains in control of the total because every increase needs a fresh signature. GoMining cannot quietly change £50 into £60 after the user has approved it.
The customer approves the payment Once the customer is happy with the details, the wallet signs the transaction and sends it back to GoMining.
GoMining checks the signature, confirms that the wallet has enough Bitcoin and makes sure the new total follows correctly from the previous one.
After those checks are complete, the merchant receives an approved response and can finish the sale.
This is the part that feels instant. The merchant does not need to wait for a Bitcoin block because GoMining is effectively saying that the customer has signed a valid payment state and the amount can be settled later.
Settlement happens in the background GoMining eventually takes the latest signed total for each customer, adds its own signature and turns it into a complete Bitcoin transaction.
The amount the customer has authorised moves into the settlement process, while any remaining balance returns to the multisignature wallet as change.
GoMining then groups several settlement transactions together and uses a Child Pays for Parent transaction to cover the network fee for the package.
In simpler terms, one transaction pays enough of a fee to help move a wider group of transactions through the network. This allows the settlement cost to be spread across several payments instead of charging every customer a separate on-chain fee.
The system is designed around an average settlement period of roughly 12 hours, although that figure is not a hard guarantee. Smaller amounts may stay pending for longer if settling them immediately would be inefficient.
That means the checkout can be instant even though the Bitcoin settlement happens hours later.
What “instant” really means The word “instant” can easily cause confusion here because GoBTC Pay is not making the Bitcoin network itself faster.
The merchant gets an instant approval after GoMining verifies the customer’s signed payment. The on-chain confirmation still happens later.
That distinction matters because a shopper may assume the Bitcoin has already reached the merchant the moment the checkout says “approved.” In reality, GoMining has accepted the payment state and taken responsibility for handling the later settlement.
From the user’s point of view, the difference may not matter much because the payment feels complete. From the merchant’s point of view, it matters more because there is a gap between accepting the sale and receiving the final Bitcoin payout.
GoMining will need to make that gap clear in its merchant terms, especially if settlement timing changes during busy periods or when Bitcoin fees rise.
GoBTC Pay fees The customer side is simple because GoBTC Pay does not charge a direct payment fee.
The merchant pays 0.2% of the transaction value, which works out as follows:
PurchaseCustomer feeMerchant fee$10$0$0.02$100$0$0.20$500$0$1.00$1,000$0$2.00$10,000$0$20.00 When a third-party wallet handles the payment, 0.1% goes to miners and 0.1% goes to the wallet provider.
That is one of the more interesting parts of the model because everyone has a reason to take part. The merchant gets a predictable rate, the customer avoids a direct fee, miners earn from settlement activity and wallet providers can make money from payments.
The zero-fee claim only applies to purchases made through the protocol. Moving Bitcoin into or out of the spending wallet may still require a normal network fee.
Is GoBTC Pay non-custodial? GoBTC Pay describes the wallet as non-custodial because no single party can move the customer’s uncommitted balance.
That description is reasonable within a multisignature setup, although it needs some context.
The user holds one key, GoMining holds another and the recovery provider holds the third. Since two keys are required, GoMining cannot simply take the funds. The user also cannot move them alone during normal use.
This is different from a custodial exchange wallet, where the platform controls everything, and it is also different from traditional self-custody, where one user-controlled key is enough to move the Bitcoin.
How the custody situation shakes out will depend on when a payment actually settles. According to the fine print, the amount you’re allowed to spend gets moved into a GoMining controlled account before the merchant gets their cut, and any leftover change finds its way back to your multisig wallet.
If we’re being honest, the most straightforward description here is that it’s a shared-control spending wallet. You get to keep the reins on the balance that hasn’t been committed yet, while GoMining still gets to play a part in the day-to-day and the settlement process.
Security, recovery and identity checks The multisignature structure offers useful protection because GoMining cannot move the customer’s balance by itself, and every increase in the running payment total needs the user’s signature.
If for any reason GoMining were to become unavailable, then the recovery provider can help get the cash out to the user after a short waiting period. So that’s good news for users who are worried about GoMining disappearing on them.
You still need to look after your own key and backups carefully, since the recovery provider only holds one of the two signatures needed to move the funds. If you lose every copy of your key, the provider cannot restore access by itself.
GoBTC Pay also requires you to complete identity verification, which can include providing identification, undergoing sanctions screening and submitting a facial scan during onboarding. These checks may make the service easier for regulated businesses to work with, although they could also make it less appealing if you would prefer a more private Bitcoin payment experience.
It is also worth remembering that funds held through GoBTC Pay are not covered by bank deposit protection schemes, while both you and the merchant remain exposed to changes in Bitcoin’s price for as long as the BTC is held.
What the experience should look like for customers The customer starts by creating a wallet, completing the identity checks and adding Bitcoin to the spending balance.
At a participating merchant, they scan a QR code, open a payment link or use an online checkout. The wallet shows the merchant, price and updated total before asking for approval.
Once the customer signs, GoMining checks the payment and sends the merchant an approval.
The separate spending balance may feel slightly inconvenient at first because users need to move BTC into it, although that separation can also be useful. It allows somebody to keep their main savings elsewhere while placing only a smaller everyday amount into GoBTC Pay.
What the experience should look like for merchants A merchant applies for access, completes business verification and connects a Bitcoin wallet.
The business can then accept payments through QR codes, payment links or an integrated checkout, while the dashboard keeps track of transactions, fees and statements.
Once the customer signs a payment, the merchant receives approval and can finish the sale. The Bitcoin payout arrives later through GoMining’s settlement process.
Refunds work as new Bitcoin transactions because the original payment cannot simply be reversed. That removes card-style chargebacks, which some merchants will welcome, although it also means businesses need clear refund rules and good customer support.
GoBTC Pay compared with Lightning and normal Bitcoin payments A standard on-chain Bitcoin payment gives the user direct control, but it can be slow and expensive for smaller purchases.
Lightning solves the speed problem through payment channels and already has a much larger payment ecosystem. The downside is that wallets and payment providers may need to manage routing and liquidity.
GoBTC Pay avoids channels by using an instant approval layer and later on-chain settlement. The merchant gets a quick answer, while the final transaction still ends up on Bitcoin.
That convenience comes with more dependence on GoMining because the company verifies payments, co-signs transactions, stores the latest payment state, groups settlements and handles merchant payouts.
Who is GoBTC Pay for? GoBTC Pay makes the most sense for Bitcoin-focused merchants, wallets and customers who already want to hold or spend BTC.
An online store could use it to reduce card-processing costs and avoid chargebacks, while a physical business could accept Bitcoin without asking staff to monitor confirmations.
Wallet providers may also like the revenue share because it gives them a direct return from payment activity.
The product is less likely to appeal to users who want full control through one key or prefer to avoid identity checks. Mainstream businesses that want every payment converted into fiat may also find Square or a traditional crypto processor more convenient.
Current limitations GoBTC Pay is still in early access, so the limited merchant network is its biggest problem for now. A payment method becomes useful when customers can actually find places to spend, and starting with a small group of merchants means the network still has a lot of growing to do.
Third-party wallet support will be just as important because most users will not want to download another app simply to make occasional payments. The SDK and fee-sharing model give wallet providers a decent reason to integrate, although GoBTC Pay needs support from recognised wallets, exchanges and fintech platforms before it feels widely available.
Fiat settlement may also slow down adoption among mainstream merchants. Square converts Bitcoin into dollars by default, while GoBTC Pay is built around businesses receiving BTC. That will suit some merchants perfectly, although others may not want the price exposure or extra accounting work.
The settlement system also needs to prove itself under heavier use. A 12-hour average may be acceptable for many businesses, although merchants will want clear answers about delayed payouts and the point at which the Bitcoin becomes fully available to them.
GoMining also remains central to the entire system. The multisignature wallet stops the company from moving customer balances alone, yet payments, approvals, batching and merchant settlement still depend on its infrastructure.
That dependency helps make the checkout smoother, although it is also the main operational risk users and merchants need to accept.
Final verdict GoBTC Pay is one of the more interesting attempts to make Bitcoin useful at the checkout because it tackles the two problems people notice most: slow confirmations and transaction fees.
Its 0.2% merchant fee is easy to understand, customers pay no direct fee and the multisignature setup gives users more control than a normal custodial wallet. GoMining also uses its mining infrastructure in a sensible way by combining quick approvals with later batched settlement.
The comparison with Square shows where GoBTC Pay fits. Square is better placed to reach mainstream merchants and offers an easier fiat experience, while GoBTC Pay is aimed more directly at businesses that actually want Bitcoin.
The product still needs more merchants, more wallet support and evidence that settlement works smoothly at scale. Even so, the idea is practical, the pricing is attractive and the Bitcoin-first design gives GoBTC Pay a real reason to exist.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warned investors, pointing out that the recent surge in the Bitcoin market is not driven by strong spot demand.
Spot Demand is Necessary for Bitcoin’s Rise! Ki Young Ju, in a post from his X account, stated that the Bitcoin market is currently largely driven by the futures market, while the apparent spot demand for Bitcoin on-chain remains in negative territory.
Ju wrote that currently, open positions are increasing, but on-chain spot demand remains in net selling territory and has not yet clearly recovered.
This means that prices are only rising due to inflows into the futures market, and the spot market is not providing the same support for the actual rise.
In this context, Ju states that a recovery in spot demand is necessary for a sustainable rise in BTC.
“…Sustainable gains require both spot and futures demand. As we saw in April, futures-led gains tend to weaken without support from spot demand.”
The Drop in USDT Could Be Positive for Bitcoin! Furthermore, analysts at the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant have reported a $4 billion drop in the market capitalization of USDT, the largest stablecoin, over the past two months. According to the analysts, this indicates one of the sharpest USDT declines in recent years and suggests that many investors are exiting the cryptocurrency market.
At first glance, this picture might be interpreted as investors withdrawing from the market and new capital inflows weakening.
However, CryptoQuant analysts point out that USDT contractions of this magnitude have historically been seen mostly in the later stages of bear markets. They note that the sharpest USDT contractions coincided not with periods of accelerating selling pressure, but rather with periods when selling pressure was nearing its end.
In this context, analysts believe that while the contraction in USDT could be a negative liquidity signal for Bitcoin in the short term, historically it can also be seen as an early indication that the current sell-off may be nearing its end.
*This is not investment advice.
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Five years ago, El Salvador became the first country on Earth to make Bitcoin legal tender. The Bitcoin Law took effect on September 7, 2021, requiring every merchant in the country to accept Bitcoin as payment. By early 2025, that mandate was gone, rolled back under pressure from the International Monetary Fund as a condition for securing a $1.4 billion Extended Fund Facility. Bitcoin didn’t get banned. It just got demoted from “must accept” to “can accept if you feel like it.”
The adoption gap Crypto-settled remittances, the use case that was supposed to justify the entire experiment, accounted for just 0.7% of total remittance volume in the first half of 2026.
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The government’s Chivo wallet, launched alongside the Bitcoin Law with a $30 Bitcoin bonus for every download, saw a predictable spike in adoption followed by an equally predictable decline. Independent assessments found minimal improvements in financial inclusion, which was the central selling point of the entire initiative.
What the government kept Despite walking back the legal tender mandate, El Salvador’s central government still holds approximately 7,400 to 7,700 BTC, valued at roughly $480 million to $500 million as of mid-2026. President Nayib Bukele’s administration has continued accumulating the asset even after softening the policy framework around it.
The global halo effect Where El Salvador undeniably succeeded was in marketing. The country became a pilgrimage site for crypto enthusiasts. “Bitcoin Beach” in El Zonte turned into a tourist attraction. For a nation that previously made international headlines mostly for gang violence and migration, the rebrand was real, even if the underlying adoption metrics were underwhelming.
Lessons for other nations The IMF’s role in forcing the rollback carries implications beyond El Salvador’s borders. Any developing nation considering a similar Bitcoin initiative now has a clear data point: international lenders will use their leverage to constrain it. The $1.4 billion loan came with strings, and one of those strings was pulling back on mandatory Bitcoin acceptance.
At current holdings, every $10K move in Bitcoin’s price swings the government’s position by roughly $75 million. That’s meaningful for a national budget of El Salvador’s size, making this one of the more concentrated sovereign bets on a single asset class anywhere in the world.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin’s price continues to trade notably below its late-2025 peak, but recent technical and on-chain data indicate that selling pressure is easing. Over recent months, key indicators have signaled reduced momentum from sellers and a market increasingly characterized by consolidation rather than high volatility.
Technical signals show seller exhaustion decliningGlassnode, a leading blockchain analytics firm, reported that its Seller Exhaustion Constant metric has declined sharply in 2026. This indicator, which blends the proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit with 30-day price volatility, currently reads 0.0164. That figure is above the extremely low levels typically observed at major Bitcoin cycle bottoms, but marks a meaningful drop amid ongoing price weakness.
Glassnode emphasized that lower seller exhaustion suggests forced selling is losing strength, but this change alone does not confirm the market has established a durable bottom.
The firm also described the current environment as one where aggressive distribution has moderated, with selling activity transitioning toward a more balanced picture. The price has thus entered what appears to be a consolidation phase, rather than displaying traits of a classic capitulation event seen in previous bear markets.
Analysts warn that Bitcoin may spend extended periods consolidating with gradually declining seller conviction, and that this process does not always immediately transition into bullish moves.
BTC trades in tight range, technical momentum remains neutralIn recent trading, Bitcoin has moved within the $63,000 to $65,000 band. According to a TradingView snapshot, BTC/USD was last observed near $63,587. The overall technical summary remains neutral, despite a majority of sell signals from individual moving averages.
IndicatorLatest ValueImplicationRSI47Near midpoint, neutral momentumStochastic %K46No clear signalADX11Weak trend strengthCommodity Channel Index-57Neutral to mildly negativeThese readings collectively describe a market that lacks a strong directional trend, reinforcing the picture of consolidation.
Glassnode’s late-July report highlighted that BTC rebounded from approximately $64,000 to $65,100 but did not break out of its established range.
Resistance and support levels define near-term outlookTechnical analysis finds Bitcoin trading below the 10-, 20-, 30-, and 50-day exponential moving averages. The 50-day EMA sits at roughly $64,518, while the 100-day EMA is near $66,672. The 100-day simple moving average stands at $67,402, and the 200-day EMA and SMA are recorded at $72,012 and $69,747, respectively. This cluster of overhead averages forms a significant resistance zone.
Moving AverageValue50-day EMA$64,518100-day EMA$66,672100-day SMA$67,402200-day EMA$72,012200-day SMA$69,747The 50-day simple moving average, around $63,336, has stood out as a nearby support, generating a buy signal amid otherwise bearish indicators among the major averages. Sustained movement through the mid-$60,000s would be needed to improve the near-term technical structure.
Large wallets increase accumulation during price weaknessOn-chain data from Santiment, a blockchain analytics platform, shows that wallets holding at least 10,000 BTC rose to a six-month high of 90, an increase of six wallets (7.1%) over eight weeks. This points to greater supply concentration among major holders during the ongoing market turmoil, while smaller wallets have seen some decline in holdings.
Mini dictionary: Santiment is an on-chain and social data analytics platform focused on providing insights into cryptocurrency market behavior.
Glassnode noted in July that long-term holders had resumed accumulating BTC, indicating that patient buyers are absorbing some of the available supply. However, analysts caution that the growth in large wallets may reflect address transfers, shifts in custody, or other structural factors rather than outright accumulation alone.
Analyst perspectives and cycle analysisSome market analysts consider the current conditions typical of the late stage of a bear market. Ali Martinez, a cryptocurrency market analyst, published a cycle chart suggesting Bitcoin’s 2025 peak near $125,000 and the post-peak decline in 2026 may represent the latter part of the current cycle. The chart indicates potential for recovery and new highs by 2027, but acknowledges that such historic patterns are difficult to replicate in changing market environments.
Glassnode’s recent research described Bitcoin as progressing through a “bottom building” phase, but noted this process is not yet finished. The firm cited accelerating losses for long-term holders and ongoing negative ETF flows as indicators of persistent caution among investors.
Consequently, while bottoming signals are present, the available data does not confirm that a new cycle low is already established.
Key pivot points for Bitcoin priceClassic pivot analysis identifies the central pivot at $62,491. Resistance zones are located at $67,248, $71,677, and $80,863, while support levels are found at $58,061, $53,305, and $44,119. Since BTC is trading above the central pivot but below the primary resistance, these levels serve as crucial markers for traders monitoring potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.
LevelValueCentral Pivot$62,4911st Resistance$67,2482nd Resistance$71,6773rd Resistance$80,8631st Support$58,0612nd Support$53,3053rd Support$44,119A sustained move through $67,000 would likely improve the near-term technical outlook, bringing $71,000-$72,000 into focus. Falling below $62,500 would weaken the current consolidation theme and raise the risk of further downside toward the upper $50,000s.
Outlook: Consolidation persists as upside and downside risks remainBitcoin’s price action remains in a consolidation phase near $64,000. On-chain and technical signals, including increased large-holder activity and declining aggressive selling, provide some support for stabilization, even as the price remains well below previous highs.
Most momentum indicators and moving averages remain neutral or bearish, with the $66,000-$67,000 range marking a key resistance area for any attempted recovery. Support around $62,500 and $58,000 will be watched for confirmation of downside risk.
Analysts generally caution that further evidence—such as renewed spot demand and a reclaim of important moving averages—is needed before declaring a market reversal. As the current consolidation continues, traders are likely to monitor liquidity and volatility for signs of a new trend forming.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
A prominent trader notes that the Clarity Act will play the same role crypto ETFs served in the last cycle, and Bitcoin could bottom out and rally ahead of the bill’s passage.
Prominent trader Killa posted that during the last bull run, Bitcoin began recovering from lows ahead of ETF rumors and formal approval, emphasizing markets typically price in positive news in advance. This cycle could follow a similar pattern: the current "Clarity Act" (Regulatory Clarity Act) is shaping a new narrative. "If it indeed acts as a catalyst, it will likely mark the start of BTC’s first meaningful rally phase since the recovery from the prior bear market, and its approval will soon push Bitcoin to a new all-time high (ATH)—just like the ETF approval did," Killa noted. A BTC-focused quantitative trader, Killa correctly predicted the peak of this bull run in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, then switched to a long position during the broad market sell-off on June 5.
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US stocks opened higher on the back of moderate inflation data, with storage, semiconductors, optical communications, and Neocloud rallying across the board.
US stocks opened higher today amid mild inflation data, per Bitget market data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.33%, the S&P 500 gained 0.49%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.9%. In terms of individual stocks, BIT (bit.com) market data shows that stocks in the storage, semiconductor, optical communication, and neocloud sectors rallied broadly. SanDisk advanced 6.9%, SK Hynix rose 5.8%, and Micron Technology gained 5.5%. For neocloud stocks, CRWV jumped 22%, NBIS climbed 15.21%, and IREN rose 10%. Meanwhile, optical communication-related stocks saw LITE surge 9.88%, GLW add 5.64%, AAOI advance 4.71%, and MRVL rise 6%.
Strategy’s preferred stock STRC opened trading at $95.39 on August 12, marking its highest level in two months. The stock is now sitting less than 5% below its $100 par value, a quiet milestone for an instrument that spent much of the year struggling to hold that psychological floor.
What STRC actually is and why $95 matters STRC, formally known as the Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, is not your typical preferred share. It was issued on July 29-30, 2025, when Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold 28,011,111 shares at $90 each. That offering raised $2.521 billion, making it the largest US IPO of 2025.
The capital has one primary destination: buying more Bitcoin.
The “variable rate” part is where things get interesting. STRC’s dividend adjusts monthly based on how the stock trades relative to its $100 par value. When shares dip below $95, the annualized dividend rate gets bumped up by 0.5%.
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The current annualized dividend rate sits at 12% for August 2026 payment periods. On August 12, the stock traded in a range of roughly $95.34 to $95.81, after closing the previous session at $95.32. The 52-week range tells a more dramatic story: STRC has traded as low as $71.25 and as high as $100.42.
Getting from $71.25 to $95.39 is a 33% climb.
The bigger picture at Strategy STRC was the most ambitious version of that playbook. Raising over $2.5 billion through a single preferred stock offering gave Strategy a massive war chest without diluting common shareholders through a traditional equity raise. The trade-off is the ongoing dividend obligation, which at 12% annualized is not cheap capital.
Recent corporate activity has included stock repurchases and new dividend approvals announced in July 2026. The repurchase program serves a dual purpose: it supports STRC’s market price and reduces the outstanding share count, both of which can help keep the dividend rate from climbing even higher.
Why the recovery matters for investors At $95.39, STRC is trading below par but within striking distance of $100, meaning the automatic dividend escalators are less likely to kick in going forward, assuming the price holds or improves.
There’s also the question of what happens if STRC sustainably trades above par. At $100.42, the 52-week high, the stock briefly crossed that line. Below $95, the dividend sweetens enough to attract buyers. Above $100, the yield compresses enough to invite sellers. That $95 to $100 corridor is where STRC is likely to spend most of its time in a stable market environment.
Traders watching STRC should keep one eye on Bitcoin’s price charts and the other on Strategy’s monthly dividend announcements, as the two are connected by the mechanics of the instrument itself.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
