Bitcoin just delivered its second-best Q3 in history, while Ethereum posted its best Q3 ever. Sounds like the market is back. Maybe. But Q4 still has plenty to prove.
The problem is history isn’t exactly comforting. Bitcoin ended Q4 red in both 2024 and 2025. Ethereum also had a red Q4 in 2024, while its 2025 quarter was barely positive. So, no, a strong Q3 doesn’t guarantee another green quarter.
Source: xBitcoin Q3 Rally Needs Fresh Liquidity NowThere is, however, an interesting liquidity signal emerging. RugaResearch said in a CryptoQuant post that USDT’s 60-day supply change closed September at +$505 million, its first reading above zero in more than three months.
On a monthly basis, USDT supply increased about $450 million. That’s positive, but don’t get carried away. The number remains small compared with the $5.7 billion hole seen earlier.
The 60-day reading bottomed at -$5.7 billion on July 13. Its 30-day average hit -$5.4 billion on July 29 before climbing every day since.
USDT Supply Is Recovering, But SlowlyHowever, there’s an important catch. Of the $541 million improvement during the final three days, only around $17 million came from new minting. Most of the increase came from early-August burns dropping out of the calculation. Still, the underlying trend has improved.
Bitcoin climbed from roughly $64,000 to $83,700 during the same stretch, even while the 60-day USDT change remained negative. That means the move happened without stablecoin growth supporting it.
The Zero Line Could Become Q4’s Key SignalNow comes the interesting part. If USDT minting continues, additional liquidity could support the existing trend.
It’s still early, though. The 30-day average remains at -$564 million. The number to watch is zero. Bitcoin’s Q3 was impressive, but Q4 may need liquidity to prove the momentum can continue.
Story Ends Here
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Sources: Anthropic plans to hold its IPO before Thanksgiving
Sources familiar with the matter: Anthropic plans to hold a mega-sized IPO ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday period, and could launch its IPO roadshow as early as the week of November 9.
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US President Trump said, regarding Iran: "I must make a decision now. Either Iran signs the agreement, or it will cease to exist."
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Head of Equities at Castle Securities: Retail investors expected to return to the US stock market, October to bring window for adding positions.
Scott Rubner, Head of Stock and Equity Derivatives Strategy at Castle Securities, said retail investors are poised to flood back into the U.S. stock market this month following a sharp cool-down in September. In a client note, Rubner wrote that while volatility may persist in October, the month offers a better entry point for investors to "rebuild positions" as earnings season arrives and corporate stock buybacks are set to resume. He noted that after positions were cleared and valuations declined, "the market enters the fourth quarter from a cleaner starting point, with significantly more room to rebuild exposure." Rubner added that in September, spot stock trading volume fell to 0.94 times the average of the past year, the lowest level since 2026. Retail option premiums also dropped to the same multiple. Currently, stock trading activity is 26% lower than its June peak, while option premiums have shrunk by roughly a third from their 1.41x level at that time.
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Drift Foundation launches DFX claim and redemption program, offering 1 DFX for every 1 USDT lost.
Drift Foundation announces DFX claims and redemptions are now live. Users who suffered verified losses in the April 1 incident can claim 1 DFX for every 1 USDT of loss. Each DFX corresponds to a claim right in the Recovery Pool, which currently holds around 3.11 million USDT. Funding sources include a portion of Velocity’s daily protocol net revenue, Tether’s matching funds of up to 127.5 million USDT, strategic partners’ contributions of up to 20 million USDT, and subsequently recovered assets. DFX can be exchanged for USDT at the Redemption Amount, calculated as "Recovery Pool balance ÷ DFX outstanding supply". Post-redemption DFX will be burned, and transactions are irreversible. The claim window will close at 00:00 UTC on January 1, 2028, with any unclaimed DFX burned at that time. Yesterday, the Drift Foundation released progress on asset recovery from the April 1 security incident, in which approximately $295.4 million in user funds was stolen. The foundation has hired Mandiant, zeroShadow, and SEAL 911 for investigation and fund tracing; Mandiant identified the attacker as North Korean threat group UNC6862.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs staged a sharp turnaround in the third quarter, attracting $6.34 billion in net inflows after losing roughly $5 billion in the second quarter, according to SoSoValue data.
The buying coincided with Bitcoin’s 42.7% quarterly gain, its strongest quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024.
But for ETF investors, the more important development may be happening beyond Bitcoin.
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted approximately $3.05 billion in the third quarter, reversing about $714 million of outflows in the second quarter. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) itself gained roughly 71% during the quarter, substantially outperforming Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).
The flows were also broadening into smaller crypto assets. U.S. spot XRP ETFs pulled in approximately $308 million during the third quarter, taking cumulative inflows since launch to about $1.79 billion. XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) funds ended September with roughly $1.69 billion in assets.
For investors, that distinction matters because ETF flows provide a cleaner gauge of regulated-market demand than simply watching token prices. A rising cryptocurrency accompanied by persistent ETF creations suggests investors are putting fresh capital to work rather than merely benefiting from mark-to-market gains.
Bitcoin Still DominatesBitcoin remains the center of gravity. As of Wednesday, tracked crypto ETFs held about $174 billion in combined assets, with Bitcoin funds accounting for nearly $150 billion and Ethereum funds roughly $24.15 billion. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) led flows this week so far with $96.4 million inflows.
Yet the third quarter showed that institutional demand can rotate quickly across the crypto complex. Ethereum’s roughly 73% quarterly gain came alongside $3.1 billion of ETF inflows, while XRP ETFs continued accumulating assets despite the token’s more volatile trading profile.
• What’s next for IBIT stock?
Q4 Flow Data Will Matter MoreThe challenge is determining whether the third quarter represented a durable shift or a rebound following the second quarter’s risk-off period.
September Bitcoin ETF inflows of $2.65 billion were still substantial, but below August’s $3.52 billion. The month also ended with roughly $149 million of outflows on Wednesday, when IBIT lost $9.5 million, breaking a nine-session inflow streak.
For the fourth quarter, investors should therefore watch ETF flows alongside price performance. Sustained creations across Bitcoin, Ethereum and newer crypto ETFs would point to broader demand. A sharp reversal in flows while prices remain elevated could signal that momentum is becoming more dependent on existing holders rather than fresh capital.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Bitcoin miners already have the power, the land, and the substations that AI needs. Frank Holmes, executive chairman of HIVE Digital Technologies, explains why he calls Bitcoin mining a “tier one” data center, how GPUs that once mined Ethereum led HIVE into AI, and why he thinks the next wave of AI factories will be built on mining infrastructure from Paraguay to Canada.
Chapters:
0:00 Frank Holmes on HIVE: From Gold Investor to Bitcoin Miner to AI Compute
2:12 How ETFs Changed Bitcoin: From the Fear Trade to the Love Trade
4:20 The Binance $19 Billion Liquidation and the $350 Trillion Money Supply
5:45 Gamers, Younger Quants, and Why Bitcoin Will Keep Gaining Adoption
7:29 Covid’s $40 Trillion of Money Printing and the Global MMT Risk
9:24 China, Russia, and Why Bitcoin Is a Tier One Data Center
11:33 China’s Bitcoin Mining, $1.4 Trillion of Lending, and Central Banks Buying Gold
13:44 Paraguay’s Central Bank and Bitcoin Mining as an Export
14:57 Compute as a Commodity: Canada’s AI Push and Bitcoin Miners’ Power Advantage
20:34 Where to Find Frank Holmes’s Weekly Investor Alert Newsletter
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
Patrick Green
Patrick Green is an Assistant Producer and Channel Manager on the multimedia team at Bitcoin Magazine, focusing on production, content distribution, and channel strategy across the network.
Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range as October rate hike odds plummeted to 30%.
Notable Statistics:
Coinglass data shows 70,853 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for $193.49 million. SoSoValue data shows net outflows of $148.7 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $59.6 million. In the past 24 hours, top gainers Bitway, Stacks and Midnight. Notable Developments:
Is Bitcoin the Best Bet for Q4? An ‘Epic Run’ May Be Ahead, Expert SaysAre Rising Yields Bearish for Bitcoin? Don’t Jump to Conclusions, Mark Moss SaysBitcoin to $113,000? Citi Turns Bullish as Bitwise Says Crypto Got ‘the Good End Of the Deal’Bitcoin Whales Dump $2.52B, ETH Whales Buy $162M: What About XRP?Why This Analyst Says XRP Could Have ‘One of the Greatest Runs of the Cycle’Jack Dorsey Says ‘Turn It on’ as Block’s Cash App Introduces ‘Bitcoin Bonus’ Feature — What You Should KnowRobinhood Partners With Cboe on New Earnings Contracts: What’s Going On?Trader Notes:
Analyst Benjamin Cowen admits in a podcast that he did not expect Bitcoin to break above the $83,000 level but says holding the former high as support would make this cycle look very different from the typical Q4 weakness seen in midterm years.
Cowen highlighted an unusual relationship between Bitcoin and long-term Treasury yields since 2025. Since 2025, BTC has often performed relatively well while long-term yields rise.
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Rather than weakening as yields rise, Bitcoin has recently tended to struggle when yields begin falling amid growing concerns about economic growth.
Image: Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Trump: Either Iran signs the deal, or it will cease to exist.
US President Trump said, regarding Iran: "I must make a decision now. Either Iran signs the agreement, or it will cease to exist."
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Head of Equities at Castle Securities: Retail investors expected to return to the US stock market, October to bring window for adding positions.
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The United States has imposed new Iran-related sanctions.
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Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP hold below resistance as NEAR rebounds and Quant consolidates. Explore technical levels and price scenarios for October 1, 2026.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP opened October with modest rolling 24-hour gains, while NEAR Protocol outperformed the group and Quant remained nearly unchanged. The completed daily charts showed different conditions: Bitcoin remained inside its recent consolidation, Ethereum and XRP stayed below nearby resistance, and NEAR recovered much of its latest pullback.
Quant and NEAR join today’s coverage because both appeared in CoinGecko’s search-trending list and ranked inside its top 100 by market capitalization. NEAR ranked 21st and Quant 32nd in the market snapshot. A trending-search listing measures attention and is distinct from a ranking of price gainers.
Asset Price 24-hour change Aggregate 24-hour volume Bitcoin $83,728 +0.49% $35.33 billion Ethereum $2,695.47 +0.86% $13.92 billion XRP $1.50 +0.46% $2.88 billion Quant $297.20 Approximately unchanged $772.29 million NEAR Protocol $5.39 +10.48% $1.51 billion Bitcoin Fails to Hold Above the Previous Resistance Zone Bitcoin closed September 30 at $83,578, down 0.07% from $83,640 a day earlier. The session reached $85,518, temporarily exceeding the $85,210 upper resistance boundary identified in the previous report, before ending back below it. That intraday move did not become a confirmed daily breakout.
The latest high expands immediate resistance to approximately $85,210–$85,520. A completed daily close above $85,520, followed by a hold of the reclaimed area, would strengthen the case for another test of the September highs around $87,250–$87,330.
Support remains near $82,580–$82,950, encompassing the September 28 and September 30 lows. Beneath it, the rising 20-day simple moving average stood near $81,302. A daily close below $82,580 would weaken the range and bring that average into focus.
Four-hour MACD, using 12,26,9 settings, remained mixed as the candle closed at 00:00 UTC. The MACD line was approximately -88.63, above its -116.44 signal line but still below zero. Its positive histogram narrowed from 34.24 to 27.81, indicating that the latest improvement relative to the signal line was losing pace.
Bitcoin combines a rising 20-day SMA with mixed four-hour MACD readings. Source: CoinGecko; chart by The Crypto Basic. Ethereum Holds Above Its 20-Day Average but Below $2,743 Ethereum closed September 30 at $2,684.57, gaining 0.27%. Its $2,736.98 session high remained below the approximately $2,743 resistance level highlighted in the previous report.
Daily Bollinger Bands, calculated using a 20-day simple moving average and two standard deviations, had a midpoint near $2,610.17 and an upper band near $2,833.57. ETH price closed above the midpoint and inside the bands, with nearby horizontal resistance still separating price from the higher band.
Fibonacci retracements of the advance from September 15’s $2,361.16 low to September 21’s $2,804.42 high place the 23.6% level near $2,699.81 and the 38.2% level near $2,635.09. The latter closely matches the recent support floor around $2,635.
A daily close above $2,743 would put the $2,787–$2,804 highs back in view. Only a further break of that area would support an extension toward the upper Bollinger Band, whose value changes with subsequent closes.
Conversely, a close below $2,635 would weaken the consolidation and expose the 20-day average near $2,610, followed by the 50% retracement near $2,583.
Ethereum’s Fibonacci retracements place a support reference near $2,635, above its Bollinger midpoint. Source: CoinGecko; chart by The Crypto Basic. XRP’s $1.45–$1.47 Support Remains in Focus XRP finished September 30 near $1.49 after reaching approximately $1.54. The close remained near the preceding session’s level and below the $1.53–$1.56 resistance band identified in the previous report.
The 20-day simple moving average rose to about $1.44. Fibonacci retracements of the advance from the September 16 low of $1.25 to the September 23 high of $1.66 provide additional reference points: approximately $1.50 at 38.2%, $1.46 at 50%, and $1.41 at 61.8%.
The 50% retracement falls within the established $1.45–$1.47 support area, while the moving average sits just beneath it. A completed close below this support band would weaken the current structure; a further loss of the average would bring the $1.41 retracement into focus.
On the upside, reclaiming $1.50 would be an initial improvement, but a close above $1.56 would be needed to clear the broader resistance band and nearby 23.6% retracement. Holding that reclaimed area would support a retest of $1.61–$1.66. A return below $1.53 after a breakout would weaken that recovery scenario.
XRP’s 50% retracement lies around $1.46, close to established support and the rising 20-day SMA. Source: CoinGecko; chart by The Crypto Basic. Quant’s Daily Recovery Meets Softer Four-Hour Momentum Quant closed September 30 at $286.87, up 7.36% from $267.20. The session climbed to $326.12 before retreating into the close. Its nearly flat rolling 24-hour return at the later snapshot measures a different window from that completed daily gain.
Fibonacci retracements of the rebound from September 28’s $196.87 low to September 30’s $326.12 high place the 23.6% level at $295.62, the 38.2% level at $276.75 and the 50% level at $261.50. The daily close sat between the first two levels, although the subsequent spot quote was back above $295.62.
The latest completed four-hour MACD line fell below its signal line, with the histogram turning from +0.32 to -1.28. Both lines remained above zero, distinguishing the loss of momentum relative to the signal from a move below the MACD baseline.
A daily reclaim of $295.62 would support another attempt at $318.36–$326.12. A confirmed break above $326.12 would reopen the September 27 high near $358.20. Failure to hold $276.75 would instead expose the September 30 low of $263.45 and nearby $261.50 retracement.
Quant’s rebound faces a negative four-hour MACD histogram, with Fibonacci references at $295.62, $276.75 and $261.50. Source: CoinGecko; chart by The Crypto Basic. NEAR Recovers Toward Its September High NEAR closed September 30 at $5.34, up 9.20% from $4.89. The session high of $5.49 remained below September 27’s $5.57 peak, so the rebound had not yet produced a confirmed breakout above the recent high.
Four-hour MACD showed improving momentum at the common chart cutoff. Its line stood near 0.109, above the 0.078 signal line, while the positive histogram increased from approximately 0.026 to 0.031. Unlike Bitcoin, both NEAR readings were above zero.
The $5.16–$5.19 area, containing earlier daily highs, is the first area to watch for a successful support retest. Holding above it would preserve the rebound toward $5.49–$5.57. A return below $5.16 would weaken the recovery, with the September 30 low at $4.84 and September 29 low at $4.55 providing lower reference points.
For a conditional upside scenario, two-point Fibonacci extensions of the recovery from September 29’s $4.55 low to September 30’s $5.49 high stand near $5.75 at 1.272 and $6.07 at 1.618. Those levels become relevant if NEAR first closes above $5.57 and holds the breakout area; they are projected extensions, not confirmed price destinations.
NEAR approaches $5.49–$5.57 resistance with improving four-hour momentum. Fibonacci extensions remain conditional on a breakout. Source: CoinGecko; chart by The Crypto Basic.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Trump: Either Iran signs the deal, or it will cease to exist.
US President Trump said, regarding Iran: "I must make a decision now. Either Iran signs the agreement, or it will cease to exist."
27 minutes ago
Head of Equities at Castle Securities: Retail investors expected to return to the US stock market, October to bring window for adding positions.
Scott Rubner, Head of Stock and Equity Derivatives Strategy at Castle Securities, said retail investors are poised to flood back into the U.S. stock market this month following a sharp cool-down in September. In a client note, Rubner wrote that while volatility may persist in October, the month offers a better entry point for investors to "rebuild positions" as earnings season arrives and corporate stock buybacks are set to resume. He noted that after positions were cleared and valuations declined, "the market enters the fourth quarter from a cleaner starting point, with significantly more room to rebuild exposure." Rubner added that in September, spot stock trading volume fell to 0.94 times the average of the past year, the lowest level since 2026. Retail option premiums also dropped to the same multiple. Currently, stock trading activity is 26% lower than its June peak, while option premiums have shrunk by roughly a third from their 1.41x level at that time.
27 minutes ago
The United States has imposed new Iran-related sanctions.
According to the U.S. Treasury Department website, the United States has issued new Iran-related sanctions. The announcement states that the U.S. is imposing the latest sanctions on Iranian railway and automotive enterprise groups, aiming to economically isolate Iran.
27 minutes ago
Bitcoin ETFs see $150M outflow, Ethereum ETFs down $13.89M in daily trading
"As Q4 begins, seasonality suggests investors should be prepared for volatility," Martinez claimed.
The primary cryptocurrency has been in a clear uptrend since July, rising 42% over the past three months. Many analysts have flipped bullish, believing the bear market is over and projecting a pump toward a new all-time high during the next cycle.
However, the US midterms in November may divert BTC from its potential bullish path and trigger a substantial correction. Here’s why.
BTC Dump? The 2026 US midterm elections will take place on November 3, halfway through the president’s term, when voters elect all House members and about one-third of the Senate. This matters because they can change which party controls Congress, affecting Donald Trump’s ability to pass laws and shape national policy.
According to popular analyst Ali Martinez, the voting may negatively impact BTC, citing historical data. He noted that after the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, the cryptocurrency’s price fell 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively.
“That does not prove elections caused the declines, but the pattern is worth watching ahead of November 3, 2026,” he said.
Martinez said the fourth-quarter data tells a similar story. He reminded that BTC pumped almost 400% in Q4 2010, but posted losses of 16.7% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in Q4 2018, and 14.75% in Q2022.
“As Q4 begins, seasonality suggests investors should be prepared for volatility,” the analyst warned.
Last but not least, Martinez paid special attention to Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis near $73,000, which could become the key support zone if the upcoming post-midterm pattern repeats.
Just a Speed Bump on the Road Higher? Several X users who commented on the post asked Martinez whether this is a bearish signal, asking whether they should sell their positions. The analyst advised them to take some profits in late October, expecting the price to jump to $100K then, and then potentially buy again at $73,000 after the midterm elections.
You may also like: Bitcoin Chart Echoes Cycle That Delivered 400% Gains: Analyst Bitcoin Fell After Four US Midterms: Could 2026 Break the Pattern? Bitcoin Price Tops $85K as US Core PCE Rises 0.2% MoM, Cooler Than Expected Martinez is hardly the only one anticipating next month to be green. Historically, October has been among the most positive months for BTC, earning it the nickname “Uptober.” The asset has ended in the green in 10 of the past 13 Octobers, and it remains to be seen whether that trend will continue this year.
Bitcoin trades around the $84,000 mark on Thursday as the crypto market balances renewed institutional demand with a cautious macro backdrop The cryptocurrency was trading at $83,754 mark.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin and Ethereum were up 0.45% and 0.33% respectively. Among the major altcoins, BNB, Dogecoin, Hyperliquid and Cardano gained upto 3.29% whereas XRP, Solana, and Tron fell upto 1%.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus said US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw strong inflows through September. This helped support Bitcoin’s recovery. However, spot demand has moderated in recent sessions. This has kept the upside measured.
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He further said for investors, patience remains important in the current environment. Avoid chasing sharp short-term price moves. Bitcoin’s ability to hold the 82,000-82,500 support zone will be important.
The global crypto market capitalisation was up 0.32% to $2.87 trillion, according to the data on Coinmarket cap.
Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42 said Bitcoin has started October on a positive note, trading around the $85,000 mark as softer US inflation data improves sentiment across risk assets. The move above $84,000 is encouraging, and sustaining this level could allow Bitcoin to test the 86,000 - 88,000 zone in the near term.
For now, the market will continue to take cues from US monetary policy expectations, institutional flows and broader risk sentiment, he further said.
Over the last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum were up 0.71% and 1.49% respectively. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano gained upto 4.72% whereas Tron and Hyperliquid corrected 0.91% and 2.13% respectively.
Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX said Bitcoin trades near $83,461 in a constructive daily consolidation, supported by bullish moving averages despite weaker momentum signals. Immediate support lies at 83,300 - 83,400, while 84,200 - 84,500 forms resistance.
Shetty further said that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $125.6 million in daily net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs lost 22,260 ETH, worth about $59.9 million at current prices. Despite the withdrawals, Bitcoin remained near $83,461, and Ether gained 0.17% to around $2,689, indicating that institutional flows did not directly determine price direction.
Also Read |Mutual fund investors lose up to 10% in September as Nifty falls. What should investors do?
Market perspective
CoinSwitch Markets Desk : BTC traded back above $85K before cooling below $84K as softer-than-expected U.S. PCE inflation supported broader risk sentiment. Headline PCE held at 3.4% YoY in August, below the 3.7% consensus, while core PCE remained at 3.0%, also undershooting expectations.
Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex: Bitcoin briefly climbed to $85,600 after softer-than-expected August PCE data cut October rate-hike expectations by around 40%, but elevated Treasury yields capped the move and pulled BTC back toward $83,500. September delivered a rare break from its seasonal trend, with Bitcoin gaining 6.35% despite the dollar posting its strongest month since June.
Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange : Crypto markets remain caught between improving inflation signals and a still-restrictive macro backdrop. Bitcoin briefly pushed above $85,000 after softer-than-expected PCE data eased concerns around further Fed tightening, but the move quickly faded as strong GDP growth and elevated U.S. Treasury yields kept pressure on risk assets.
The next major catalyst is U.S. jobs data: a softer print could cool yields and support a renewed move higher, while stronger labor data could reinforce the higher-for-longer rate narrative and keep BTC range-bound or under pressure
Purvang Mashru, Lead Analyst, BitDelta India: Bitcoin briefly reached $85,600 before retreating 2.4% from that level. The failure to hold those gains suggests buyers are encountering selling pressure on rallies. Sustaining higher prices, rather than briefly testing them, remains the key test of whether the recovery has further room to run.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Bitcoin is still stuck between $82,000 and $85,000, extending more than a week of choppy, sideways price action. The U.S.-listed ETFs registered a net outflow of $148.7 million on Wednesday, ending a nine-day inflows streak that pulled in $3.08 billion, according to data source SoSoValue.The broader altcoin story still remains selective, with the CoinDesk DeFi Select Index is the only one up 1% in 24 hours.It’s new quarter, but same old bitcoin BTC$83,921.58 price range. The cryptocurrency is still stuck between $82,000 and $85,000, extending more than a week of choppy, sideways price action.
Prices briefly topped $85,000 on Wednesday after weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation cooled bets on Fed rate hikes, But bulls couldn’t hold the move and spot ETFs didn’t help.
The U.S.-listed ETFs registered a net outflow of $148.7 million on Wednesday, ending a nine-day inflows streak that pulled in $3.08 billion, according to data source SoSoValue. That was the biggest inflow streak of the year in dollar terms.
Moreover, the streak was fading before it ended. Daily inflows peaked near $1 billion on Sept. 21 and steadily shrank over the following days. The pace of daily inflows needs to pick up for prices to continue rising, according to analysts at Bitfinex
“Daily pace remains the key determinant for clearing overhead supply,” analysts said in a market note.
The Bitfinex Absorption-to-Emission Ratio (BAER), a metric that divides the BTC bought by ETFs in a session by the roughly 450 BTC miners produce each day, has compressed from 25.6x on 21 September to 1.8x on 29 September.
“Absorbing the 1.39M BTC breakeven supply (which sits between $84,000 and $86,500) requires the BAER to recover toward 5.0x (~$190 million/day),” they said.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at The FxPro, focused on macro factors.
“The persistence of the bond sell-off is a very worrying sign, capable of triggering a sell-off across all markets almost overnight. It is easy to find periods in history when turmoil in traditional finance has benefited crypto. Still, it is impossible to predict when the market will shift from caution to panic,” he said in an email.
In the meantime, smaller coins like Bitcoin Layer 2 network Stacks’ STX token are chalking out impressive gains. The token has risen by 25% in 24 hours. Several others like LIT, JST and ENA have risen by over 5%.
The broader altcoin story still remains selective. The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index is the only one up 1% in 24 hours. The Computing Select and CoinDesk 80 Indexes are up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, while the rest are slightly down.
Derivatives positioningBTC Open interest eased to $20.9B from $21.8B, and funding held broadly stable near 3% annualized across venues. The exception is the term structure: the 3-month annualized basis on Deribit picked up from under 5% to over 6%, a mild steepening that points to firmer demand for leveraged longs.Options 24-hour call/put ratio jumping to 83% in favour of calls (from 66/34). The 1-week delta skew eased to ~4% from ~15%, and the ATM term structure stays in contango but a touch lower - front end ~29.5%, long end ~40% out to mid-2027. A calm vol regime: heavy call flow, but little premium being paid for the upside.Coinglass data shows $100 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 50-50 split between longs and shorts. BTC (100 million), ETH ($51 million) and Others ($26 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $84,800 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.Token talkStacks STX$0.3761 surged around 26% over 24 hours to $0.39, making it one of the strongest large-cap performers. The move coincides with Stacks founder Muneeb Ali being named CEO of Stacks Labs as the project pushes to expand adoption of its bitcoin staking products.Midnight NIGHT$0.04357 jumped around 23% over 24 hours to $0.04, extending a rally that has seen the privacy-focused token climb for several consecutive sessions. NIGHT is up about 7% since midnight UTC after gaining 21% on Wednesday.Ethena (ENA) and near protocol NEAR$5.1156 were also among the strongest performers, rising around 11% and 10%, respectively, over 24 hours. ENA traded near $0.27, extending its gain over the past week to more than 30%.Quant (QNT) continued its volatile run, trading around $290 and roughly 9% higher over 24 hours in some market snapshots. The interoperability token has now more than tripled over the past week after a series of sharp rallies and reversals.Avalanche (AVAX) and internet computer (ICP) bucked the broader strength, falling about 5% and 4%, respectively, over 24 hours. The declines reverse part of Tuesday’s recovery, when AVAX gained 7% since midnight and ICP added 8.3%.Related Assets
12345678910The Definitive Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia Pacific
The Definitive Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia Pacific
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
Sep 15, 2026
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
Why it matters:
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
Five years ago, Robinhood and AMC were the faces of the meme-stock era; now their CEOs are at war with each other over tokenized stocks — blockchain-based instruments that represent, or claim to represent, shares of a company. Adam Aron, AMC’s CEO, says Robinhood tokenized AMC’s stock without consent and called the product “vile.” Vlad Tenev responded that consent is not required and Robinhood is merely meeting international demand for U.S. equity exposure.
The disputed products are debt securities issued by a Robinhood offshore subsidiary — what Aron calls a “fictitious synthetic equity market.” The tokens track a stock's price but give buyers no ownership of the underlying shares. The industry calls these synthetic products "wrappers."
Beyond their kerfuffle, Tenev correctly recognizes a massive opportunity: giving millions of underserved international investors access to U.S. equities markets. The United States has a population of roughly 340 million people. The number of individual investors living outside of the U.S. is at least that number, but the overwhelming majority of them cannot buy into U.S. markets directly or affordably. Expand access through tokenization, and global investment will flow into American companies. This expanded pool of investment capital represents the biggest opportunity American markets have had in over fifty years.
But firms offering these synthetic securities see this once-in-a-generation opportunity as their own, inserting themselves between international investors and U.S. markets to capture the trading activity, liquidity, and fees that global demand for U.S. stocks creates.
Put more bluntly: Synthetic tokenization of U.S. equities shortchanges the American public.
A wrapper touches the U.S. capital markets only once, when the issuer buys shares to hold as collateral. From then on, the trading happens offshore, token holder to token holder, and none of it reaches the exchanges where the company's shares trade. The result is misdirected investor demand in a U.S. company that does not reflect a genuine increase in the market capitalization of that company. Multiply that mismatch across nearly 200 U.S. companies already tokenized this way, in a market Citi projects at $2.7 trillion by 2030, and the opportunity cost to American companies and portfolios potentially compounds.
On September 17, the SEC drew the line. Its long-awaited "innovation exemption," which lets blockchain venues list and trade tokenized securities, excludes synthetic tokens outright. Qualifying tokens must represent real ownership, and, in Chairman Paul Atkins' words, they "must provide holders with the same rights and privileges as the traditional securities," dividends and voting included. The SEC’s innovation exemption even addresses AMC's concerns by requiring that companies get notice and the right to object before a third party tokenizes their shares.
The better model is not a whitepaper or promise; it is already being built at the very center of U.S. markets. A share can be tokenized as a digital twin of a security custodied at the Depository Trust Company, which is the custodian of virtually every publicly traded U.S. share. Under the tokenization service DTCC plans to launch this year, the token and the traditional security are one asset in two forms; the share never leaves the national clearing and settlement system. A foreign investor who buys that token through a licensed venue buys the share, and the order deepens the market Americans trade in.
Real shares. Real rights. Real markets.
U.S. markets are the envy of the world because investors trust that whoever owns a share owns it fully. The synthetic models cheapens that trust, shortchanges U.S. investors, and undercuts the issuer-led capital markets model. The digital twin does the opposite: it extends full ownership to millions of potential new investors and directly American companies with increased access to capital.
Global Investors will invest in U.S. equities one way or another. Done right, tokenization will galvanize American capital markets – markets that can trade around the clock, settle more efficiently and remain the deepest and most trusted in the world — and create a generational influx of investment into America.
Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.
12345678910The Definitive Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia Pacific
The Definitive Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia Pacific
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
Sep 15, 2026
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
Why it matters:
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
TLDR Citi raised its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $82,000 to $113,000. The bank increased its Ether forecast from $2,240 to $3,028. Citi expects about $5 billion in Bitcoin-related inflows over the next 12 months. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recovered from earlier outflows, reaching about $800 million in 2026 net inflows by late September. Citi cited renewed ETF demand, SEC rule changes, and U.S. Treasury bond buybacks as factors supporting its crypto outlook. Citigroup has raised its 12-month forecasts for bitcoin and ether as ETF demand returns and macro conditions improve. The bank now sees the Bitcoin price reaching $113,000, up from its prior $82,000 target, while ether could reach $3,028.
Citi’s new Bitcoin price forecast stands about 35% above the market level near $83,900. Its ether target sits about 12% above a price near $2,697. The bank cited stronger crypto activity, renewed fund demand, and a more supportive economic backdrop.
The bank expects advisers and brokerages to increase bitcoin exposure gradually rather than make large shifts at once. Citi forecasts about $5 billion of inflows over the next 12 months. Recent data also showed that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their best weekly inflow of 2026.
ETF Demand Returns After Weak First Half U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.8 billion in net outflows for 2026 through July 13, according to the figures cited in the report. Later inflows erased that deficit, leaving the products with roughly $800 million in net inflows by late September.
Citi expects that recovery to continue at a measured pace. The bank’s outlook assumes financial advisers will keep adding bitcoin allocations over time. That approach could provide steady demand without relying on short periods of heavy buying from a small group of investors.
Macro Conditions Support Citi’s Crypto Outlook Citi also pointed to policy and market developments in the United States. The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act on September 15, but later SEC rule announcements reduced some of the market’s negative reaction. Bitcoin then gained more than 10% before September ended, while Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average during the rebound.
The bank also cited U.S. Treasury bond buybacks as a factor that helped revive demand for risk assets. Recent market coverage showed that the U.S. Treasury scheduled a $6 billion long-bond buyback as yields tested multi-year highs.
Citi also raised its 12-month ether forecast from $2,240 to $3,028, up from its previous target. The revised targets show that Citi expects renewed ETF demand and broader market conditions to support both assets during the next year. Bitcoin remains below Citi’s new target, so the forecast depends on the bank’s expected inflow trend continuing alongside supportive financial conditions. Citi’s note sets a 12-month horizon for both forecasts.
A developer has sent Bitcoin over Apple’s Find My network with a small device that relays Cashu ecash tokens through nearby iPhones. The sending device needs no internet connection during the transfer.
The proof of concept turns the tracking system behind AirTags into an unusual payment channel. However, its builder says it should carry only tiny amounts.
How Bitcoin Moves Over Apple’s Find My Network
BREAKING: bitcoin sent via apple's "find my" mesh network
possibly the most absurd medium to send bitcoin yet
a small device convinces nearby iphones to transmit tiny amounts of data with cashu ecash to the recipient.
— calle (@callebtc) September 30, 2026
A Cashu developer shared the experiment on X, calling it possibly the most absurd way to send Bitcoin yet. Cashu is an ecash protocol that aims to keep Bitcoin payments private through bearer tokens issued by mints.
The open-source code, published on GitHub, runs on cheap ESP32 boards. The device packs a token into Bluetooth signals that imitate lost-item beacons.
Passing iPhones pick up those signals and relay them through Apple’s Find My network, as they would for a missing AirTag. Meanwhile, the recipient pulls those reports with an Apple account and rebuilds the token piece by piece.
How a Cashu token moves over Apple’s Find My network. Source: BeInCryptoA Python script checks the rebuilt token for errors before printing it. Each signal carries only two bits of data, so a typical token needs well over 1,000 broadcasts.
Public Tokens Mean Anyone Can Spend ThemThe developer warns that every broadcast token is public. Because Cashu tokens work like digital cash, anyone who recovers one can spend it.
The weak point is the transport itself. According to the protocol notes, the payload carries no encryption, and the IDs needed to look it up are public.
Therefore, the documentation advises sending only giveaway amounts. It adds that delivery is slow, unofficial, and carries no guarantee.
The receiver also taps Apple’s Find My network through an unofficial interface. As a result, the tool could stop working if Apple changes that interface.
The Find My experiment remains a novelty rather than a payment product. Still, it joins other efforts to make Bitcoin payments feel like texting, only this time without internet. Other developers are chasing private Bitcoin transfers on the base layer instead.
Bitcoin fiyatı 84.000 dolar çevresinde yön arayışını sürdürürken, kripto para analisti Rekt Capital’den BTC yatırımcılarını yakından ilgilendiren yeni bir değerlendirme geldi. Analiste göre Bitcoin’in kısa ve orta vadeli yükseliş yapısını koruyabilmesi için 82.500 dolar seviyesi kritik önem taşıyor. Bu bölgenin destek olarak korunması yükseliş trendinin devamını güçlendirebilirken, 80.000 doların altına doğru yaşanabilecek kalıcı bir hareket BTC için daha geniş çaplı bir konsolidasyon riskini yeniden gündeme getirebilir.
Bitcoin İçin Kritik Seviye 82.500 Dolar Rekt Capital, Bitcoin’in fiyat görünümünde 82.500 dolar seviyesine dikkat çekti. Analiste göre BTC’nin bu bölgenin üzerinde istikrar sağlaması, mevcut yükseliş yapısının korunması açısından önemli olacak. Bitcoin’in 82.500 dolar civarında dalgalanması kısa vadede bu seviyeyi önemli bir destek bölgesi haline getiriyor. Özellikle fiyatın gerçekleştireceği kapanışlar ve ardından gelebilecek yeniden testler, BTC’nin bir sonraki hareketinin yönü konusunda önemli sinyaller verebilir.
İlginizi Çekebilir: Bitcoin 85.500 Doları Gördü: Yükseliş Neden Kalıcı Olmadı?
Analiste göre Bitcoin’in kritik bölgenin altında kapanış gerçekleştirmesi durumunda sığ bir geri çekilme veya yatay konsolidasyon ihtimali güçlenebilir. Buna karşılık BTC’nin 82.500 dolar üzerinde kalması tek başına yeterli olmayabilir. Rekt Capital, yükseliş trendinin devamının güç kazanması için bu seviyenin yeniden test edilerek destek olarak korunmasının önemli olduğunu belirtiyor. Mevcut fiyat hareketine bakıldığında analist, söz konusu yeniden test sürecinin şu ana kadar başarılı bir görünüm sergilediğine dikkat çekiyor.
Rekt Capital Bitcoin İçin Ne Dedi? Rekt Capital tarafından paylaşılan BTC/USD grafiğinde Bitcoin’in 80.000 doların hemen üzerindeki bölgeden destek aldığı ve yaklaşık 84.000 dolar seviyesinde işlem gördüğü görülüyor. Analistin değerlendirmesine göre Bitcoin’in zaman içerisinde daha yüksek seviyelere doğru hareketini sürdürebilmesi için 80.000 doların düşük seviyeleri üzerinde istikrar göstermesi gerekiyor. Bu nedenle 82.500 dolar kısa vadeli kritik bölge olarak öne çıkarken, 80.000 dolar çevresi daha geniş fiyat yapısının korunması açısından yatırımcıların takip edeceği seviyeler arasında bulunuyor.
Bitcoin’in 80.000 doların üzerindeki istikrarını kaybetmesi halinde daha geniş bir düzeltme ve konsolidasyon senaryosu gündeme gelebilir. Rekt Capital’a göre böyle bir durumda BTC yeniden 60.000 ile 80.000 dolar arasındaki geniş makro fiyat aralığına dönebilir. Bu senaryo Bitcoin’in mutlaka 60.000 dolara gerileyeceği anlamına gelmiyor. Analistin değerlendirmesi, 80.000 doların düşük seviyelerinin kaybedilmesi durumunda BTC’nin daha geniş bir fiyat aralığında yeniden konsolide olabileceğine işaret ediyor.
Değerlendirme Bitcoin fiyatında gözler 82.500 dolar seviyesine çevrilmiş durumda. Rekt Capital’ın analizine göre bu bölgenin destek olarak korunması, BTC’nin yükseliş trendini devam ettirebilmesi açısından kritik önem taşıyor. Bitcoin’in 80.000 dolar üzerindeki yapısını koruması daha yüksek seviyelere yönelik hareketin devamını destekleyebilir. Ancak bu bölgenin kaybedilmesi halinde 60.000-80.000 dolar arasındaki geniş konsolidasyon alanının yeniden gündeme gelmesi mümkün olabilir.
Son Dakika kripto para haberleri için hemen tıkla.
Konu ile ilgili yorumlarınızı bize yazabilirsiniz. Ayrıca, bu tarz bilgilendirici içeriklerin devamının gelmesini isterseniz, bizleri Telegram, Youtube ve Twitter kanallarımızdan takip edebilirsiniz.
Mutsamudu, Comoros, October 1, 2026 – MEXC, a pioneer in 0-fee digital asset trading, today announced the addition of another 1,000 BTC to its Guardian Fund, marking the second major BTC allocation to the fund this year. The latest addition follows MEXC’s May commitment to expand the Guardian Fund from $100 million to $500 million over two years, further strengthening the fund to keep pace with changing market conditions, security risks, and broader user protection needs.
Following the latest allocation, the Guardian Fund now comprises 100 million USDT and 2,000 BTC, further strengthening MEXC’s user protection reserves as the digital asset industry continues to face evolving security risks. A series of security incidents across the industry has highlighted the changing risk landscape facing crypto platforms and users. Recent attacks have again demonstrated that security threats are not static, and that user protection requires ongoing investment in capital reserves, technology, and risk-management infrastructure.
MEXC’s first 1,000 BTC allocation in May established Bitcoin as a long-term reserve component of the Guardian Fund alongside liquid USDT reserves. The latest addition marks the next stage of that strategy, reflecting MEXC’s approach to treating user protection as a continuously reinforced system rather than a reserve established at a single point in time. MEXC will continue strengthening the fund as its global user base, asset coverage, and operating environment grow and change.
MEXC has made its Guardian Fund holdings publicly traceable on-chain through disclosed wallet addresses, enabling users to independently verify the reserves. The additional BTC further strengthens the fund as MEXC continues working toward its $500 million target while investing in security, transparency, and risk-management infrastructure designed to protect users over the long term.
“Security and user protection is not a one-time investment. It is a continuous commitment,” said Vugar Usi, CEO of MEXC. “The risks facing digital asset platforms continue to evolve, and the resources behind user protection need to evolve with them. Adding another 1,000 BTC to the Guardian Fund reflects our long-term approach to building stronger protection for users and ensuring that the infrastructure behind that protection continues to grow with MEXC.”
Guardian Fund wallet addresses USDT: https://etherscan.io/address/0x469AfE803C54A36674C55231489Cf4b61da8c1bC#tokentxns First BTC allocation: 1MDVjZdX8QD212pT8Z8EMP7DuFQHKqN3mx Second BTC allocation: 19KYQDpyssRUtpfa4pfAWiNQLeysThd1us About MEXC Founded in 2018, MEXC is a leading global multi-asset trading platform built as your 0-fee gateway to infinite opportunities. Serving users across 170+ markets, MEXC provides simple and efficient access to crypto, stocks, tokenized assets, derivatives, and a growing range of TradFi-linked opportunities through one account and one gateway.
With 0 trading fees, deep liquidity, broad asset coverage, and a high-performance trading experience, MEXC is designed for retail users who want to discover earlier, act faster, and trade with fewer barriers. As crypto and traditional finance continue to converge, MEXC is committed to making global opportunities more accessible, helping users trade freely and MEXCmize every opportunity.
MEXC Official Website｜ X ｜ Telegram ｜How to Sign Up on MEXC
This content does not constitute investment advice. Given the volatility of financial markets, including digital assets, tokenized assets, and traditional financial products, investors should carefully assess market conditions, underlying asset fundamentals, and potential financial risks before making any investment or trading decisions.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) bull market is maintaining strength according to key metrics while displaying clear signs of fatigue after reaching an eight-month high.
The market confirmed its bull market status with a close above the 365-day moving average, says CryptoQuant.
The analytics platform adds that CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index remains at 90/100, which it notes as an “extremely bullish” signal.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant says BTC is flashing signs of exhaustion as traders’ on-chain unrealized profit margin reached 33%, the highest level since December 2024, leaving a large pool of gains available to realize.
“Historically, stretched margins have preceded selling and downward price pressure.”
Profit-taking has already begun, with 25,700 BTC realized in profits on September 22nd, marking the largest single-day total of 2026.
Demand is cooling as well, with apparent spot demand contracting by 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days and futures demand growth slowing from 164,000 BTC on September 14th to just 16,000 BTC currently.
Support levels remain well-defined below current prices at the 365-day MA near $80,000, the 200-day MA around $71,000 and traders’ realized price at $67,000.
CryptoQuant says the bull trend stays intact as long as these hold.
“The bull market is intact — but the rally is cooling. Last week’s close above the 365-day MA confirmed a new bull market as CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index sits at an extremely bullish 90/100. Yet after an eight-month high of $87.4K several signals suggest the rally is losing momentum and a pullback could follow.”
Looking at altcoins, exchange inflows of coins other than BTC also spiked sharply to 76,000 transactions and 51,000 depositors over seven days, the highest since October 17th, 2025.
“A surge in deposits typically signals distribution.”
Bitcoin (BTC) closed July, August, and September in the green for the first time on record. The streak delivered a 42.71% gain in Q3.
The rally ended three straight losing quarters. BTC now trades at $83,702, down 0.15% over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin Q3 Breaks a 13-Year September PatternMonthly returns from CoinGlass show BTC gained 7.36% in July, 24.95% in August, and 6.33% in September.
August did most of the work. Between August 17 and 23, BTC added $14,775, its largest one-week dollar gain on record.
Bitcoin Q3 monthly returns table with July, August, and September 2026 highlighted / Source: CoinGlassThe move followed the US Treasury doubling its long-dated bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation. Meanwhile, spot ETF demand hit its strongest week since October 2025.
September then made the quarter historic. Before 2026, every green August since 2013 was followed by a red September.
That pattern repeated in 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2021. Historically, September is also a weak month, averaging a 2.41% loss.
This year, September broke the pattern with a 6.33% gain. It also marked the month’s fourth consecutive green close.
Second-Best Bitcoin Q3 Ever, Yet 2026 Remains RedQuarterly data ranks the 42.71% gain second among all Q3 results. Only 2017 performed better, with an 80.41% rise.
The 2026 quarter narrowly edged out Q3 2013, which returned 40.6%. Q3 2021 follows in fourth place with 25.01%.
The result looks even stronger against Q3’s history. The quarter averages 8.67%, the weakest of all four quarters, with a median of 2.29%.
Bitcoin quarterly returns table showing Q3 2026 at 42.71% / Source: CoinGlassHowever, the rally has not erased earlier losses. BTC fell 22.2% in Q1 and 14.09% in Q2, after a 23.07% drop in Q4 2025.
As a result, BTC still trades about 4% below its $87,498 opening price for 2026. It also sits roughly 34% below its record near $126,000.
BTC Sentiment Fractal Echoes 2019 and 2023 RecoveriesMarket mood shifted just as sharply. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 5 on February 12.
It then spent 106 straight days below 50 through August 19. That was the third-longest fearful stretch in the index’s eight-year history.
By August 25, the sentiment gauge had climbed to 74, its highest since October 2025. It stood at 71 on September 30.
A LookIntoBitcoin chart of price and sentiment shows a similar sequence in earlier cycles.
In early 2019 and early 2023, BTC reclaimed the level it lost after its cycle top. Both reclaims came three to four months after the cycle low.
In each case, sentiment turned from fear to greed as the level flipped. BTC has now repeated that pattern near $83,000, about three months after its late-June lows.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed fractal chart comparing 2019, 2023, and 2026 reclaims / Source: LookIntoBitcoinNotably, this drawdown was shallower and shorter. BTC fell more than 50% from its peak, compared with roughly 84% in 2018 and 77% in 2022.
Still, the fractal may not play out the same way. After the 2019 reclaim, BTC rallied to nearly $14,000, then gave back about half by year-end.
After the 2023 reclaim, it traded sideways for roughly seven months before its next leg higher. Meanwhile, the index last read 74 a day before BTC’s October 2025 peak.
BTC Price Outlook Turns to the $87,500 Yearly OpenOctober has historically favored bulls. Across completed years since 2013, the month posted a median 14.71% gain and closed green 10 times out of 13.
Q4 has delivered a median 47.73% return. After each prior Q3 gain above 15%, in 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2021, Q4 also closed green.
However, four cases make a small sample, and past performance offers no guarantee.
The first hurdle sits at the $87,498 yearly open, which would turn 2026 positive. On the downside, a sustained close below the reclaimed $83,000 level could weaken the fractal case.
The Federal Reserve meeting on October 27 and 28, followed by the US midterm elections in November, could decide which way BTC breaks.
Jakub has been the editor-in-chief of BeInCrypto Poland for many years, authoring news articles, analyses, and features, as well as working as a translator. He coordinates the work of the Polish team, constantly monitoring the global and local cryptocurrency market. He has interviewed influential figures in the sector such as Benjamin Cowen, Rachel Conlan, Erald Ghoos and Adrian ‘CryptoBirb’ Zduńczyk. His areas of interest include technical and on-chain analysis, investment strategies, and Bitcoin decentralisation and adoption. His interpersonal skills and extensive experience in people management and team leadership allow him to successfully participate in international Web3 events. He has been a speaker at conferences in Geneva, Naples, Monaco, Warsaw, and many other cities in Poland. Jakub holds a PhD from the Catholic University of Lublin in Lublin, Poland, and a master's degree in sport science from the Academy of Physical Education in Katowice, Poland. He uses his unique combination of vitality and intellect in the service of the crypto community. In addition, Jakub is a professor at an international university in Lublin, Poland, and the author of four books and over 20 scholarly articles. In his spare time, he coaches a team of young basketball players and participates in poker tournaments.
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Disclaimer
This Analysis reflects BeInCrypto's editorial interpretation of information and data available at publication and may become outdated. It is general and non-personalised, does not consider your circumstances, and is not investment research, financial, investment, legal or tax advice, an offer or a recommendation. Forecasts, targets, technical analysis and forward-looking statements are uncertain and may not materialise; past performance and indicators do not predict future results. References to assets, products or providers do not imply endorsement. Crypto-assets and financial products may result in total loss. Verify material information before acting.
This morning HBAR was the market’s best large-cap story. By evening it was the worst. Same news, same coin, twelve hours apart.
The crypto market has steadied after a rough start to the week. Total market cap sits near $2.86 trillion, up 1.1% on the day, and 61 of the top 100 coins are green. Bitcoin trades at $83,558, flat on the day (+0.27%) and down 2.03% on the week.
The calm has a reason. The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases August PCE inflation data on September 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET, two weeks after the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023. Nobody wants a big position into that print.
Underneath the flat surface, two coins went in opposite directions on the same kind of news.
HBAR: From +22% to -16.5% Hedera (HBAR) trades at $0.1043, down 16.5% over 24 hours. Earlier today it was up more than 20% and traded above $0.12.
The fuel was a September 23 announcement from The Hashgraph Group: its Hedera-based IDTrust identity platform for AI agents was listed on the IBM Cloud Catalog. A real partnership, but a narrow one. This is a partner’s product on a cloud marketplace, not IBM building on Hedera itself.
The market seems to have reached the same conclusion within a day. HBAR is still up 9.91% on the week, so the move has not been erased. But anyone who bought the midday spike is now sitting on a loss of roughly 15%.
Longer view: our HBAR price prediction.
QNT: The Rally That Has a Date Attached Quant (QNT) trades at $270.48, up 12.84% today and 299.39% over seven days. It roughly quadrupled in a week.
The difference from HBAR is the size of the counterparty. On September 24, The Clearing House announced that Quant will power its On-Chain Money Initiative, a network for clearing and settling tokenized bank deposits, with connections to the RTP and CHIPS payment rails. Full details in our report on The Clearing House selecting Quant.
Now the honest part. The network is expected to open to banks only in the first half of 2027. The token has priced in a lot, very fast, for a product that is months from launch. HBAR just showed what happens when a pump outruns its news. A +299% week makes QNT the riskiest chart on the board for anyone buying now.
The Rest of the Board CoinPrice24h7dQNT$270.48+12.84%+299.39%NEAR$5.03+6.29%+15.16%UNI$8.98+2.73%+1.01%ETH$2,691+0.74%-1.20%BCH$307.66+0.28%+15.90%BTC$83,558+0.27%-2.03%TRX$0.335-0.30%-3.81%ZEC$1,399-4.10%-7.67%HBAR$0.1043-16.50%+9.91% Two names worth a sentence each:
Uniswap (UNI) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) stabilized after heavy losses earlier in the session. Both are due to get CME futures on October 19, pending regulatory review, per CME Group’s September 22 announcement. BCH is still up 15.90% on the week on that news. Our coverage: CME’s Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap futures. NEAR is quietly one of the strongest large caps: +6.29% today and +15.16% on the week, with no single headline behind it. The One Number That Matters QNT +299% in seven days vs HBAR -16.5% in one.
Put those two numbers side by side and you have the lesson of the day. Enterprise-partnership news can move a token enormously, and it can reverse just as fast. The only difference between the two today is time. HBAR’s reversal happened within hours. QNT’s has not happened yet, and it may not, because a bank-owned clearing house is a much larger counterparty than a cloud listing. But “may not” is not the same as “will not”.
Bottom Line The market is flat and waiting on PCE. Bitcoin holds $83,500. HBAR shows how quickly a partnership pump can unwind, and QNT is the rally everyone is watching to see if it does the same. A hot PCE print tomorrow would test every one of these moves at once.
FAQ Why is HBAR down today? HBAR fell 16.5% to about $0.104 after rallying above 20% earlier in the day on news that a Hedera-based identity platform was listed on the IBM Cloud Catalog. Traders took profits once the size of the deal became clear. HBAR is still up about 10% on the week.
Why is Quant (QNT) up? The Clearing House selected Quant on September 24 to power its tokenized deposit network for US banks. QNT is up roughly 299% over seven days, though the network only opens to banks in the first half of 2027.
What is the crypto market doing today? The market is roughly flat to slightly up, with total market cap near $2.86 trillion and 61 of the top 100 coins green. Traders are cautious ahead of August PCE inflation data on September 30.
What is the Bitcoin price today? Bitcoin trades around $83,558, up 0.27% on the day and down about 2% on the week. See our bitcoin price page for live data.
When is the PCE inflation report? The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes August personal income and outlays, including PCE inflation, on September 30, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Is it too late to buy QNT? Nobody can say. A token that quadrupled in a week carries high reversal risk, as HBAR showed today. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile. Do your own research before making any financial decision.
AUTHOR
Simeon is a detail-driven editor who sharpens every piece with clarity and precision, ensuring clean, consistent, and professional content throughout.
The net flows of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs reach 2.73 billion dollars from September 1 to 28, 2026, according to data from Farside Investors. August ended at 3.52 billion. But September is not like August: 2.42 billion, or 88% of the total, arrived in six sessions from September 21 to 28. Cointribune reconstructed the two months session by session to show it.
In brief +2.73 billion dollars: net flows of bitcoin ETFs from September 1 to 28, over 19 sessions (Farside Investors, TFTC). +313.5 million only over the first 13 sessions, then +2.42 billion over the next 6. +3.52 billion in August, over 21 sessions, including 16 positive. What do bitcoin ETF flows measure? A spot bitcoin ETF is a stock-exchange traded fund that holds bitcoin. When investors buy shares, the fund issues new ones and purchases bitcoin. Net flow is the difference between these creations and redemptions, in dollars, for a session. Cointribune had tracked the moment when 2026 flows turned positive again.
The figures in this article add together the daily flows of all spot bitcoin ETFs listed in the United States. From September 10 to 28, they come from the Farside Investors table. For August and early September, they come from TFTC, which compiles the same declared flows. The two series agree within 0.1 million on overlapping dates.
How does September compare to August? August rose steadily. Sixteen out of 21 sessions were positive. The highest, on August 20, brought 606.3 million dollars. The worst, on August 28, cost 201.8 million.
September bitcoin ETF flows followed a different trajectory. After thirteen sessions, the cumulative amount did not exceed 313.5 million dollars. On September 15, funds lost 450.4 million in one session, the biggest outflow in the two months. That day, the U.S. Senate rejected by 49 to 50 votes the procedure intended to advance the CLARITY Act, according to CNBC. The data does not indicate whether the two events are linked.
Then the curve improved. On September 21, ETFs received 999 million dollars, their best session in two months. The next five sessions added 1.42 billion.
IndicatorAugust 2026September 2026 (to 28)Cumulative net flows+3.52 B$+2.73 B$Sessions2119Positive sessions1612Best session+606.3 M$ (August 20)+999.0 M$ (September 21)Worst session−201.8 M$ (August 28)−450.4 M$ (September 15)Sources: Farside Investors, TFTC, Cointribune calculations. Data consulted on September 29, 2026. Bitcoin ETF flows for all of 2026 The 2026 balance has become positive again. Mid-July, bitcoin ETFs showed 5.8 billion dollars of net outflows since January, according to SoSoValue data. As of September 24, the annual cumulative reached about 886.8 million inflows, according to Decrypt, reported by Yahoo Finance. Since their launch in January 2024, these funds have gathered 58 billion net dollars, according to the same source.
What these figures do not say Aggregators do not all publish the same amounts. For September 21, Farside counts 999 million dollars, and Bitcoin Treasuries shows 1.41 billion. For September 15, the gap ranges from −450.4 to −198.1 million. Collection methods and reporting times differ. Comparing figures from different sources therefore distorts interpretation.
A net flow does not say who buys, nor why. It measures ETF share demand in the United States, in dollars. It does not measure purchases on crypto platforms, nor demand outside the United States. To choose between an ETF and bitcoin held directly, our comparison between spot ETFs and bitcoin details the differences.
September bitcoin ETF flows end at 2.65 billion dollars, compared to 3.52 billion in August, according to Farside. The last session, September 30, recorded 148.7 million outflows, including 125.6 million for Fidelity’s FBTC fund
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Independent author, specialized in decentralized artificial intelligence and crypto ecosystems. I analyze projects by what they actually do, not by the noise around them. Openly a supporter of the Qubic project: my articles about Qubic and its direct competitors carry a disclosure.
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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Adam Back wants Bitcoin to stop upgrading so often. His proposed route to fewer upgrades is, somewhat ironically, one more upgrade.
On October 1, 2026, the co-founder and CEO of Blockstream publicly endorsed covenant opcodes and related technologies. He framed them as a potential “last soft-fork” that could cut down on future protocol changes while making Bitcoin Script more secure.
What Back is actually arguing Back’s position rests on two linked ideas. The first is that covenant-enabling tools could reduce how often Bitcoin needs new soft forks.
A soft fork is a backward-compatible change to Bitcoin’s rules. Older nodes keep working, but the network collectively agrees to enforce a tighter set of conditions. These upgrades are slow, contentious, and require broad coordination across miners, node operators, and developers.
The second idea is security. Back emphasized formal semantics and mathematical proofs as ways to harden Bitcoin Script, the simple programming language that defines how coins can be spent.
Formal semantics means describing exactly what a piece of code does in precise mathematical terms. Mathematical proofs then let developers verify that a contract behaves as intended before anyone puts real money behind it.
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Covenants, explained without the jargon A covenant, in Bitcoin terms, is a rule attached to coins that restricts how they can be spent in the future. Today, Bitcoin Script mostly checks whether someone has the right to spend coins. Covenants would also let a script influence where those coins go next.
Several concrete proposals have picked up renewed attention in 2026. They include CTV, formally BIP 119, and OP_CAT, designated BIP 347.
Both have seen activity through signet testing and draft Bitcoin Improvement Proposals. Signet is a test network where developers can experiment with proposed features without risking actual Bitcoin.
None of these proposals has made it to Bitcoin mainnet. As of early October 2026, CTV and OP_CAT remain in draft or signaling stages.
The Simplicity connection Back’s comments referenced Simplicity, a smart-contract language developed by Blockstream. Simplicity was launched on the Liquid Network in 2025.
Liquid is a Bitcoin sidechain operated by Blockstream. Simplicity aims to deliver covenant-like functionality and was built with formal verification in mind, which lines up with Back’s emphasis on mathematical proofs for script security.
That alignment is worth noting. The executive advocating for formally verifiable scripting runs the company that built a formally verifiable scripting language.
A long-running preference Back’s latest remarks are not a sudden conversion. He has consistently promoted modular opcodes over highly specific approaches since as early as 2021.
The distinction is a core fault line in the covenant debate. Specific opcodes are designed to do one job well and are easier to reason about. Modular opcodes are general-purpose tools that can be combined in ways their designers may not have anticipated.
Back has planted his flag in the modular camp. His “last soft-fork” framing is essentially the logical endpoint of that position: build a general toolkit once, verify it rigorously, and let future innovation happen on top of it.
What this means for Bitcoin Back’s statement carried no immediate market effects and no token launches. This is a protocol-level debate.
For developers, the near-term signal is to watch signet activity and the progress of draft BIPs like BIP 119 and BIP 347. Movement from testing to formal signaling on mainnet would mark a genuine change in momentum.
Simplicity’s track record on Liquid may also become a reference point. Its live deployment offers developers a working environment to evaluate covenant-like designs, which could inform how base-layer proposals are judged.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds' nine-day, $3.1 billion net inflow streak came to an end on Wednesday, with a combined $148.7 million in net outflows, according to data compiled by The Block.
BlackRock's usually dominant IBIT product ended its own nine-day, $1.6 billion inflow run, with $9.5 million exiting the fund. Fidelity's FBTC led the day's net outflows with $125.6 million, followed by Bitwise's BITB with $13.6 million. The remaining funds all registered zero flows.
Spot bitcoin ETF flows. Image: The Block. The nine-day streak had marked one of the most positive runs for the bitcoin funds this year, taking cumulative flows back into positive territory for 2026.
"Here's a nice look at the lifetime cumulative flows for the Bitcoin ETFs… getting really close to a new high water mark, which is arguably astonishing given what they've been through over the past 11months," Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said ahead of the latest daily figures.
However, the funds remain about $5 billion away from their cumulative flow peak on Oct. 10 last year, fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noted.
Cumulative flows into bitcoin ETFs. Image: Bloomberg. Overall, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have generated over $57 billion in cumulative net inflows since their debut in January 2024 and $970 million year-to-date, with over $100 billion in assets under management, per The Block's Bitcoin ETF Tracker page.
Last week, the newest Bitcoin ETF from Morgan Stanley, which launched in April this year, topped 10,000 BTC in assets under management for the first time, according to the firm's MSBT fund page.
Spot Bitcoin ETF AUM. Image: The Block. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw $59.6 million in net outflows on Wednesday, led by $26.6 million exiting Fidelity's FETH fund. That extends their net outflow streak to two days, following a prior seven-day, $850 million inflow streak. Total net inflows for the Ethereum funds, which launched later in July 2024, currently stand at around $14 billion.
Spot Ethereum ETF flows. Image: The Block. Bitcoin whipsaws as soft PCE cools October Fed rate hike bets Bitcoin whipsawed around the $84,000 level on Wednesday, as a softer-than-expected reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred PCE inflation gauge reduced expectations for another interest rate hike in October.
"A 0.2% monthly rise in core PCE prices is welcome news for the Fed," said Brendan Ma, head of investment strategy at the Arbitrum Foundation. "If September CPI points the same way, the pressure for an October hike eases."
Bitcoin closed positive for September, up 6.4%. It is currently trading at around $83,950 on Thursday, per The Block's (BTC) price page.
In brief Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000, and its Ethereum target to $3,028 from $2,240. It expects $5 billion of crypto inflows over the next year, at a slower but steadier pace. The Bitcoin target sits about 10% below the record set in October 2025. Citigroup has raised its 12-month price target for Bitcoin to $113,000 from $82,000, and for Ethereum to $3,028 from $2,240, citing stronger activity across crypto markets, a supportive macro backdrop and the return of ETF inflows, Reuters reported.
Both targets are increases of around 35% on the bank's previous numbers. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $83,900 and Ethereum at around $2,700, per CoinGecko data, implying roughly 35% upside for Bitcoin and 12% for Ethereum if the targets are met.
The bank expects inflows to resume at a slower but steadier pace as advisers and brokerages gradually raise their allocations to Bitcoin, according to a note dated Wednesday, and forecasts $5 billion of them over the next 12 months.
Set against the past year, $5 billion would be a turnaround rather than a modest ask. Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended the twelve months to September with a small net outflow, according to SoSoValue, with six negative months in that span and $4.51 billion leaving in June alone. They have taken in $880 million across 2026 so far, against $21.37 billion in 2025. Whether Citi's figure covers spot Bitcoin ETFs alone or crypto products more broadly is not clear from the summary of the note.
The target itself is also short of a record. Bitcoin's all-time high of about $126,200 was set in October 2025, leaving Citi's $113,000 some 10% below the peak even if the call proves right.
On regulation, the bank said the Clarity Act's failure in the Senate last month had "narrowed the path to a market-structure bill," while prompting Securities and Exchange Commission rule announcements that took the edge off negative sentiment.
Myriad: When will Bitcoin hit a new all-time high? Click to make your prediction.The rally behind the upgrade has been sharp. Bitcoin and Ethereum have gained close to 40% and 68% respectively over the past three months, cutting their losses for the year to roughly 4% and 9%, Citi noted.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have since taken money in for nine straight sessions, about $3.08 billion from September 17, narrowly beating August's nine-day run. The week to September 25 drew $2.4 billion, the funds' biggest since October 2025, and pushed them back into positive territory for the year. Bitcoin's summer rebound dates to August 19, when the Treasury said it would double its longer-dated bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation.
Momentum has eased since. Daily inflows fell to $66 million on September 29, and Bitcoin rose above $85,000 after cooler-than-expected PCE data before settling back, leaving it roughly a third below its October 2025 record of $126,296.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
In brief Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000, and its Ethereum target to $3,028 from $2,240. It expects $5 billion of crypto inflows over the next year, at a slower but steadier pace. The Bitcoin target sits about 10% below the record set in October 2025. Citigroup has raised its 12-month price target for Bitcoin to $113,000 from $82,000, and for Ethereum to $3,028 from $2,240, citing stronger activity across crypto markets, a supportive macro backdrop and the return of ETF inflows, Reuters reported.
Both targets are increases of around 35% on the bank's previous numbers. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $83,900 and Ethereum at around $2,700, per CoinGecko data, implying roughly 35% upside for Bitcoin and 12% for Ethereum if the targets are met.
The bank expects inflows to resume at a slower but steadier pace as advisers and brokerages gradually raise their allocations to Bitcoin, according to a note dated Wednesday, and forecasts $5 billion of them over the next 12 months.
Set against the past year, $5 billion would be a turnaround rather than a modest ask. Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended the twelve months to September with a small net outflow, according to SoSoValue, with six negative months in that span and $4.51 billion leaving in June alone. They have taken in $880 million across 2026 so far, against $21.37 billion in 2025. Whether Citi's figure covers spot Bitcoin ETFs alone or crypto products more broadly is not clear from the summary of the note.
The target itself is also short of a record. Bitcoin's all-time high of about $126,200 was set in October 2025, leaving Citi's $113,000 some 10% below the peak even if the call proves right.
On regulation, the bank said the Clarity Act's failure in the Senate last month had "narrowed the path to a market-structure bill," while prompting Securities and Exchange Commission rule announcements that took the edge off negative sentiment.
Myriad: When will Bitcoin hit a new all-time high? Click to make your prediction.The rally behind the upgrade has been sharp. Bitcoin and Ethereum have gained close to 40% and 68% respectively over the past three months, cutting their losses for the year to roughly 4% and 9%, Citi noted.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have since taken money in for nine straight sessions, about $3.08 billion from September 17, narrowly beating August's nine-day run. The week to September 25 drew $2.4 billion, the funds' biggest since October 2025, and pushed them back into positive territory for the year. Bitcoin's summer rebound dates to August 19, when the Treasury said it would double its longer-dated bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation.
Momentum has eased since. Daily inflows fell to $66 million on September 29, and Bitcoin rose above $85,000 after cooler-than-expected PCE data before settling back, leaving it roughly a third below its October 2025 record of $126,296.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
Uphold has rolled out Vault Inheritance, which is described as a legacy-planning option for customers who keep Bitcoin, XRP, and Hedera in the platform’s assisted self-custody wallet.
The company framed the product as a response to a problem unique to crypto: legal title can pass to an heir, but the cryptographic control needed to move coins often does not.
Vault itself launched in late 2023 as a 2-of-3 multisignature wallet inside the Uphold app.
Two keys belong to the user and one belongs to Uphold.
Two signatures are required to move funds, so the firm cannot unilaterally spend customer assets, while users still get help replacing a lost key and can trade without first leaving the app.
Inheritance is now layered on that structure. A holder invites a beneficiary from the Vault dashboard.
The invitee must be at least 18 and hold an Uphold account.
That person receives no view of balances, history, or addresses while the owner is alive, and the designation can be changed at any time.
After a death, the beneficiary starts a claim in the app and submits official records such as a certified death certificate or probate order.
Uphold’s compliance team reviews the paperwork.
Only after that review does the firm co-sign a transfer of Vault holdings into the beneficiary’s own Uphold wallet.
The company says the beneficiary needs no prior crypto experience.
For XRP, the ledger’s reserve rules still apply, so a small amount of XRP must remain in the account.
Nancy Beaton, Uphold’s president of consumer, said digital assets have become part of how many people build wealth, yet few simple tools exist to pass them on securely, “especially for XRP holders.”
The firm cited widely circulated estimates that millions of bitcoin—valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars—sit in wallets that are effectively unreachable because owners died or lost keys.
Those figures mix several kinds of inaccessibility and should be treated as industry estimates rather than a precise inventory.
Even so, they capture the practical gap the product is meant to close.
Vault currently supports BTC, XRP, HBAR, and a short list of XRPL tokens, with more networks planned.
Availability follows Uphold’s existing footprint, including the United Kingdom, the European Economic Area, most US states, and other supported regions.
The design is a compromise.
Users keep day-to-day control and can still move coins independently if Uphold’s systems fail.
They also accept a paid subscription and place trust in the firm to verify claims and co-sign the final transfer.
That is different from leaving seed phrases in a will or relying on a purely self-managed wallet, where a missing phrase can lock an estate out of the funds forever.
It is also different from a conventional brokerage account, where beneficiary designations are usually free and the custodian already holds the assets.
For holders who want self-custody without treating key management as a family project, Vault Inheritance is a narrower, productized path: name one adult beneficiary, keep the coins private in life, and let a documented claim, plus Uphold’s remaining key, complete the handoff after death.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Citigroup raised its 12-month bitcoin forecast to $113,000 from $82,000 and its ether target to $3,028 from $2,240, citing renewed exchange-traded fund inflows and favorable economic conditions.Citi expects cryptocurrency investment products to attract $5 billion over the next year as advisers and brokerages gradually increase bitcoin allocations.Bitcoin rose more than 10 percent after the Senate rejected the Clarity Act on Sept. 15, while subsequent SEC announcements and Treasury bond buybacks helped ease negative sentiment and revive the broader cryptocurrency market.Financial services giant Citigroup (C) has raised its outlook for bitcoin BTC$83 921,58 and ether ETH$2 705,54 on account of exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows resuming and supportive macroeconomic conditions, in a note on Wednesdy.
Citi raised its 12-month forecast for bitcoin from $82,000 to $113,000 and for ether from $2,240 to $3,028. The targets represent increases for BTC and ETH of around 35% and 12% respectively based on their current prices.
Citi expects “slower but stickier” inflows into products like ETFs as advisers and brokerages favour gradual increases in bitcoin allocations, forecasting $5 billion of inflow over the next 12 months.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs had experienced year-to-date net outflows of $5.8 billion as of July 13. This has been reversed in the months since though, with net inflows for 2026 reaching $800 million as of late September.
Despite the U.S. Senate failing to advance the Clarity Act in the middle of last month, Citi says the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s subsequent rule announcements dampened negative sentiment, referring to them as “a temporary but meaningful positive.”
“At this stage of the electoral cycle stage, rulemaking clarity may substitute for a durable Clarity Act,” Citi said. “However, we see risk that a 2028 administration change could roll back agency-promulgated rules, albeit this concern lies outside our forecast horizon.”
The cryptocurrency market showed resilience in the aftermath of the Clarity Act’s rejection by the Senate on Sept. 15, with bitcoin gaining more than 10% by the end of the month.
Citi cited the U.S. Treasury’s move to buy back longer-dated bonds which revived momentum across the crypto market and helped it break out of a months-long slump of trailing other risk assets.
UPDATE (Oct. 1, 12:00 UTC): Removes Reuters attributions and adds additional detail from Citi’s note.
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Citi has raised its Bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000, and its Ethereum target from $2,240 to $3,028.
The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, experienced a pullback after rising above $87,000. The decline began around the $82,000 level, and BTC is currently trading sideways around $83,000.
At this point, while there are both bearish and bullish predictions for BTC, Citi has raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 and its Ethereum target to $3,000.
According to Reuters, Citi has raised its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, citing increased cryptocurrency market activity, a positive macroeconomic environment, and renewed net inflows into ETFs.
The bank raised its BTC target from $82,000 to $113,000, and its ETH target from $2,240 to $3,028.
$5 Billion Expected Inflow into Crypto Assets! Citi’s note from yesterday indicated that capital inflows into crypto assets could resume as advisors and brokerage firms gradually increase their allocations for Bitcoin. The bank added that it forecasts inflows of approximately $5 billion over the next 12 months.
At this point, the bank added that it expects inflows to be slower but more stable compared to previous periods.
He Had Lowered the Targets! Citi had previously lowered its targets in July due to weakening ETF inflows and declining investor interest. At that time, Citi reduced its Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000 and its Ethereum target from $3,175 to $2,240.
*This is not investment advice.
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PANews, October 1 – According to CoinDesk, after U.S. August PCE inflation data came in below expectations, Bitcoin briefly broke above $85,000 on Wednesday, reaching a high of $85,500. However, as U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated, market risk appetite cooled and the gains were subsequently given back.
As of Thursday's Asian session, Bitcoin was trading around $83,700, up 0.4% over the past 24 hours. Among other crypto assets, HYPE rose about 3% to around $89, DOGE gained nearly 2% to around $0.1; ETH, BNB, TRX and ZEC rose less than 1%, XRP was flat near $1.50, and SOL fell nearly 1% to around $119.
Dan Khus, chief analyst at LVRG Research, said the August PCE data showed inflation cooling faster than expected, reducing market expectations for another Fed rate hike in October and raising the probability that December could become the next policy adjustment point. The market viewed this signal as favorable for risk assets.
However, U.S. Treasury yields remain the main obstacle to Bitcoin's further gains. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held around 5.28%, near its previous high, while the 30-year yield briefly rose to its highest level since 2002. Analysts said that with the 10-year Treasury yield still near 5.3%, improved inflation data alone is not enough to support Bitcoin holding firmly above $85,000. A sustained decline in yields could become an important driver of the next market move.
Robinhood unveiled Robinhood Agents at HOOD Summit 2026 in Houston. The in-app AI agents can analyze markets, build strategies, and trade on a customer’s behalf.
The product is coming soon to eligible US customers. It is Robinhood’s first in-house agent, after months of letting outside AI tools trade on its platform.
Robinhood AI Agents Build on a May LaunchRobinhood CEO Vlad Tenev presented the product as a response to how customers already trade.
“I think increasingly, customers and traders are integrating AI into their strategies… We wanted to make that easier,”
The company first opened its platform to external AI agents on May 27, according to TechCrunch. Those agents connected through the Model Context Protocol (MCP), a standard that links AI tools to outside apps.
Support began with stocks and later extended to crypto. However, agents cannot transfer, stake, or lend digital assets, as BeInCrypto noted when covering Robinhood’s Bitcoin trading costs.
How the New Agents WorkSetting up an agent takes three steps. Customers name it, open a dedicated agentic trading account, and connect an AI model.
OpenAI’s GPT-Luna model is free to use through December 31, per Robinhood’s announcement. Tenev also confirmed that users can switch off trade approvals entirely.
“By default, we have trade approvals… Now, some customers would prefer to turn that off to trade it fully autonomously in a loop. And we do enable that.”
A feature called Loops, still in development, will take that autonomy further.
OpportunityRiskAutomationStrategies can run continuously, including overnightLoops can place, modify, or cancel trades without per-trade approvalAccessRetail users get algorithmic tools once limited to professionalsCustomers bear all trading losses, and Robinhood does not monitor or audit agentsControlApprovals are on by default, and agents cannot touch the main account balanceTurning off a Loop does not reverse trades it already placedChoiceModels from several AI labs plus 11 paid Agent Apps data toolsUsers accept the risk of third-party AI providers handling their dataDemand and stability150,000+ agentic accounts since May and about 30 million tool uses a dayBank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden warned that similar agents could amplify volatility in stressAgentic Trading on Robinhood, Opportunities and RisksCalls for Stricter AI Agent ControlsIndustry calls for tighter controls are growing. Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell recently argued that AI agents need hard limits built into their design.
Research has also flagged agent misbehavior in market-style tests. One review found some Chinese AI models lied in 88% of tests during simulated tenders. Neither case involved Robinhood’s product.
Crypto Perpetuals and 24/7 Stocks Also AnnouncedRobinhood also plans US perpetual futures, which are derivatives contracts with no expiry date. They will cover Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK), and Hyperliquid (HYPE).
Leverage will reach 10x on BTC and ETH and 3x on the rest. Robinhood Derivatives will offer the contracts through Bitstamp in the coming months.
Separately, some US stocks will trade 24/7 from early 2027, pending regulatory review. Robinhood has not said whether its agents will trade perpetuals.
The real test may come once Loops goes live. Unattended agents will show whether default safeguards hold up in volatile markets.
The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, experienced a pullback after rising above $87,000. The decline began around the $82,000 level, and BTC is currently trading sideways around $83,000.
At this point, while the critical support level of $82,000 is being monitored in BTC in the short term, Coinshares has released its cryptocurrency report, stating that there was a $3.55 billion inflow last week.
Coinshares noted that these inflows were the largest this year and that demand was recovering after two weeks of generally stagnant flows, as investors reacted to changing macroeconomic conditions.
“Cryptocurrency investment products recorded their highest weekly inflows of the year last week, totaling $3.55 billion globally, after two weeks of sideways trading.”
Bitcoin (BTC) Topped the Charts!
Looking at crypto funds individually, inflows are concentrated in Bitcoin. BTC experienced inflows of $2.52 billion, while the largest altcoin, Ethereum, saw inflows of $702 million.
Looking at other altcoins, XRP saw inflows of $92.3 million, while Solana experienced inflows of $193 million.
CoinShares also attributed the recovery partly to the decrease in uncertainty regarding US monetary policy.
“The size and spread of weekly demand indicate that institutional investors’ confidence has returned as the policy decision removed a significant source of uncertainty.”
This situation is consistent with the “buying the truth” trend (i.e., buying when the expected development occurs) that follows weeks of cautious waiting.
With capital inflows now showing a distinctly positive trend throughout the year, this process highlights how sensitive short-term demand has become to the macroeconomic calendar.
Looking at regional fund inflows and outflows, the US ranked first with an inflow of $3.43 billion.
After the US, Germany ranked second with $73.9 million in inflows, followed by Canada and Switzerland with $21.8 million and $20.9 million respectively.
*This is not investment advice.
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Stacks price has jumped more than 20% in 24 hours to around $0.38 after founder Muneeb Ali was named Stacks Labs CEO, while the network prepares to expand its institutional Bitcoin staking program this month.
Summary
Stacks jumped more than 20% after Muneeb Ali announced his return as Stacks Labs CEO. Genesis Bond participants bonded 230 BTC alongside 310,000 STX and earned 0.28 BTC in weekly rewards. Bonding Period 2 opens October 10 with 500 BTC capacity, more than doubling Genesis participation. Anchorage Digital is building custody support for institutions seeking self-custodial Bitcoin staking through Stacks network. STX faces resistance near $0.40–$0.414 after rising more than 20% over twenty-four hours today’s session. Stacks Labs announced on Sept. 30 that Ali will take over the day-to-day leadership role from interim CEO Alex Miller, who will move into an advisory position. The company did not give an Oct. 15 start date, despite that date appearing in some market commentary.
CoinGecko data showed STX trading around $0.3847 at the latest reading, up roughly 20.8% over 24 hours and 27.4% over seven days. Trading volume was above $140 million, while the token’s market capitalization stood near $719 million.
The rally has come as Ali returns to an operating role after spending recent months on institutional business development for Stacks. His appointment follows the launch of the network’s first institutional Bitcoin staking bond in September.
Stacks price rallies as Muneeb Ali takes over Ali said his priorities at Stacks Labs will include bringing more Bitcoin capital onto the network and increasing institutional adoption. He described himself as “more bullish on STX than ever before,” a personal assessment that does not guarantee further price gains.
His roadmap includes work toward higher network capacity, privacy tools and post-quantum security. Stacks’ current roadmap lists a working goal of increasing throughput by 100 times alongside improvements to programmable Bitcoin payments, privacy options and AI-agent infrastructure.
Some news: I’m coming in as the new CEO of Stacks Labs.
– I co-founded Stacks in 2017; we’ve been live for 5+ years and have gone through various chapters of decentralization.
– I’m more bullish on $STX than ever before. After the successful launch of Bitcoin staking, it’s time…
— Muneeb (@muneeb) September 30, 2026 Miller had led Stacks Labs on an interim basis while the organization developed its Bitcoin staking product. His tenure included the July activation of PoX-5, the first of the planned Satoshi upgrades, which created the protocol foundation for the staking system. Stacks confirmed that PoX-5 activated at Bitcoin block 960,230 after audits from Trail of Bits and Clarity Alliance and review from Asymmetric Research.
Ali’s appointment does not establish that the leadership change alone caused STX’s rally. The token is trading alongside several developments involving Bitcoin staking, institutional custody and growing STX requirements within the new bond system.
Bitcoin staking creates another source of STX demand Stacks launched its Genesis Bond on Sept. 10 with institutional participants including 21Shares, HashKey Cloud, UTXO Management and Sypher Capital. The product lets participants lock BTC on Bitcoin L1 alongside an STX position and receive BTC-denominated rewards sourced from Stacks miners.
As of Sept. 24, participants had bonded approximately 230 BTC alongside 310,000 STX and received 0.28 BTC in weekly rewards. Stacks reported that the STX requirement was worth roughly 5% of the Bitcoin being bonded.
The roughly 3% BTC yield advertised for the product is a target rate, not a guaranteed return. Stacks says protocol bonds are paid first from Bitcoin committed by miners through Proof of Transfer, while a reserve fund receives part of the remaining rewards.
Participants using the self-custodial route keep their BTC on Bitcoin L1 in a timelock. The asset is not wrapped or bridged under that arrangement. Sypher Capital used a separate liquid-staking route through StackingDAO during the Genesis Bond.
The structure gives STX a role as staking capacity when additional Bitcoin enters the program. This relationship was previously examined in crypto.news’ analysis of how Bitcoin staking could affect STX demand.
The next Stacks bond doubles Bitcoin capacity The next expansion is scheduled for Oct. 10. Bonding Period 2 will provide capacity for 500 BTC, more than twice the roughly 230 BTC active in the initial Genesis period.
Stacks said approximately 10% of the second round’s capacity will be reserved for pools, while institutions holding at least 50 BTC can apply for the self-custodial route.
The company has begun building more institutional infrastructure around the product. Anchorage Digital announced that it is developing support that will let clients participate while their Bitcoin remains in custody with Anchorage Digital Bank and stays on Bitcoin L1.
Clients are expected to be able to fund a bond from an Anchorage account, receive BTC rewards and recover their principal at maturity. Registration and the paired STX stake will remain the client’s responsibility.
The custody integration does not yet represent new BTC deposited into Stacks staking. Anchorage said it is building the infrastructure, while the Stacks announcement described the service as forthcoming.
HashKey Cloud had already joined the Genesis cohort after agreeing to participate in both Stacks’ Bitcoin staking system and its sBTC signer network, as covered in crypto.news’ report on HashKey Cloud joining the Stacks launch.
Can Stacks price break above $0.40? STX is now testing an area where the latest rally has encountered resistance. On the daily chart, the token recently reached an intraday high around $0.4142 before pulling back toward the $0.38-$0.39 range.
The $0.40-$0.414 area is therefore the first resistance zone to watch. A sustained move above the recent $0.4142 high would extend the current higher-high structure, while failure to reclaim that area could keep STX consolidating below $0.40.
The Aroon Oscillator is at +100 on the chart, its maximum positive reading. The indicator shows that a new high occurred recently within its 14-period lookback window and confirms the strength of the latest upward price trend. It does not show whether STX is overbought.
Stacks (STX) price chart, source: TradingView Volatility has increased at the same time. The 14-period Average True Range stands near $0.0306, equivalent to roughly 8% of the current STX price. ATR measures the size of price swings, not their direction, meaning larger daily moves can occur on either side.
Below current prices, roughly $0.35 is the first important area from the latest breakout. Holding above that level would preserve the recent higher-low structure visible on the daily chart, while a sustained drop beneath it would weaken the move that carried STX toward $0.40.
On the upside, $0.40 remains the immediate psychological level, followed by the recent $0.4142 high. Price has already encountered selling around that area, making a confirmed close above it more useful than an intraday move alone when assessing whether the rally is extending.
Stacks’ next identifiable protocol event is the Oct. 10 opening of Bonding Period 2, when the Bitcoin staking program is scheduled to increase capacity to 500 BTC. Stacks says the rate and capacity during this bootstrap phase are set by the Stacks Endowment.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Bitcoin got a macro-flavored lift on September 30, briefly touching $85,598 as traders sharply reduced their bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
What moved the market The main trigger was August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.0% year-over-year. Forecasters had expected 3.3%.
Headline PCE came in at 3.4%, against predictions of 3.7%.
The data landed on top of comments from NY Fed President John Williams on September 29. He said there was “no need for urgency” on future rate increases.
Put together, the two signals caused a sharp repricing. Odds of a Fed hike fell from above 70% to around 37% on September 30.
A September that broke the pattern Bitcoin had spent much of the month trading between $83,000 and $84,000.
Bitcoin closed September with a 7% gain. This marks its first positive September following a positive August since 2013.
Bitcoin’s third-quarter return exceeded 40%.
That gain came despite Treasury yields sitting above 5.2%, which gives investors a meaningful return for simply holding government debt.
The ETF bid keeps showing up Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to see inflows, including a $2.8 billion surge in a single reported week.
Grayscale’s Zach Pandl described the Fed’s September hike as a “mid-cycle adjustment” rather than the start of an aggressive tightening campaign, suggesting ongoing capital allocation toward Bitcoin is unlikely to be seriously disrupted. His read echoes market behavior seen in the late 1990s, when policy tweaks did not derail broader risk appetite.
What this means for investors The clearest takeaway is how tightly Bitcoin now trades on macro data. A PCE release and a Fed speech moved the price more than any crypto-specific headline did this week.
Hike odds around 37% are lower, but they are not zero. A hot jobs report or an inflation surprise in the other direction could push those odds back up quickly.
With Treasuries paying above 5.2%, continued ETF inflows under those conditions would support the argument that institutional demand is structural, not just opportunistic. A slowdown in those flows would be an early warning sign.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin traded near $84,000 at press time, up more than 6.5% in September and heading toward a positive close in what has historically been its weakest month.
That recovery gives bulls a constructive starting point for October, which has historically delivered some of Bitcoin’s strongest monthly returns, according to CoinGlass data. However, Bitfinex analysts said in their new report on Wednesday that a sustained breakout will require stronger spot buying as ETF inflows slow and overhead supply limits gains.
Bitcoin has recently consolidated around $83,000 to $87,000 as traders await a catalyst. A monthly close above $83,500 would preserve much of September’s advance, although that level alone would not confirm a reversal of the broader downtrend.
The prospect of a green close nevertheless stands out against September’s historical performance. According to CoinGlass data, the month has produced an average loss of approximately 2.4%, while October has delivered an average gain near 20% and a median return around 15%.
That seasonal shift offers a favorable backdrop, but stronger demand will determine whether Bitcoin can capitalize on it.
Spot demand must drive the next move “With leverage substantially reduced, the next sustained move will need to be led by the spot market,” Bitfinex analysts said in commentary shared with Crypto Briefing.
Their report showed futures open interest measured in Bitcoin falling from more than 700,000 BTC on September 21 to 644,000 BTC on September 29. This reduction limits the potential for cascading liquidations, but also points to weaker speculative appetite.
With fewer leveraged positions driving the market, buying at current prices becomes more important. Bitfinex identified signs of that demand between $82,500 and $84,000, where the amount of Bitcoin with a cost basis in the band increased from approximately 110,000 BTC on September 27 to 306,000 BTC on September 30.
The increase suggests buyers are absorbing coins sold by earlier holders taking profits and recent buyers exiting at a loss. However, a larger concentration of supply sits directly above that developing support.
Approximately 1.39 million BTC has a cost basis between $84,000 and $86,500. As prices recover toward those entry levels, holders seeking to exit near breakeven could limit the advance.
Clearing part of that supply would strengthen the outlook. According to Bitfinex, a recovery above $85,000 would return approximately 760,000 BTC to profit and lift the share of supply in profit above 75%. The firm uses that threshold to help distinguish a new bull market from a recovery within a bear market.
ETF inflows slow despite nine sessions of buying Absorbing the overhead supply will also depend on the pace of ETF buying. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.08 billion over nine consecutive sessions of inflows, according to the report, but the strength of that demand has faded.
Bitfinex’s measure of ETF purchases relative to newly mined Bitcoin declined from 25.6 times daily issuance on September 21 to 1.8 times on September 29. The analysts estimate that a recovery toward five times issuance, equivalent to approximately $190 million in daily inflows, would help clear the resistance band.
If buying accelerates, Bitfinex expects Bitcoin could test the $87,722 yearly open. Beyond that level, the firm identifies $95,000 to $96,700 as a conditional October objective based on seasonality and options positioning.
That outlook remains constructive while Bitcoin holds above $81,300. Sustained trading below the level alongside ETF outflows would undermine the recovery and bring the firm’s $77,000 downside level into focus.
Bitcoin remained comfortably above that threshold at press time, trading near $84,000. However, volatility around the PCE release had failed to produce a sustained move, leaving prices largely sideways heading into the monthly close. Most of the crypto market remained similarly subdued, with Ether near $2,700, XRP at $1.48 and Solana around $118.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin (BTC) price was trading near the flatline today at the time of writing, but Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes has fueled discussions with his latest prediction. He has once again called for a likely BTC rally to $1 million, and unlike his prior calls, this time he has also provided a potential timeline for that.
As BTC price struggles to break through the $85,000 wall, this latest call appears to have caught the eyes of market participants. In addition, the latest US PCE inflation data also allayed some concerns of traders regarding a hawkish move from the US Federal Reserve.
Arthur Hayes Sees Bitcoin Price Reaching $1 Million BTC price today has stayed near the flatline and exchanged hands at around $83,700 at the time of writing. However, the broader outlook for the cryptocurrency has received renewed attention after Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes reiterated his long-term prediction that Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million.
This time, Hayes’ outlook stands out because it comes with a potential timeline. According to market commentator Walter Bloomberg, Hayes sees Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030, with the strongest phase of the rally potentially arriving in late 2027 or early 2028.
Meanwhile, the latest thesis of Arthur Hayes revolves around the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure industry and the enormous capital being committed to data centers and computing infrastructure.
According to the reported outlook, Hayes believes the AI investment boom could eventually face a major correction if revenues generated by data centers fail to justify the scale of investment. Such a downturn could put pressure on highly leveraged companies and financial institutions exposed to the sector.
Hayes has previously described the AI infrastructure boom as a credit-driven phenomenon and argued that its potential unraveling could trigger a significant response from governments and central banks. His view is that policymakers could respond to financial stress by injecting substantial liquidity into the system, creating a macroeconomic environment that could benefit Bitcoin price.
Why 2027 & 2028 Matter the Most for BTC? The potential timing of the Bitcoin price rally, as shared by Arthur Hayes, is particularly notable. Hayes has previously identified late 2027 and 2028 as a period when the financial structure supporting the AI infrastructure boom could come under greater pressure.
In a discussion earlier this year, Hayes pointed to the mismatch between the useful life of rapidly evolving AI hardware and the longer repayment schedules attached to some financing arrangements. He argued that this mismatch could become increasingly problematic around late 2027 and 2028, potentially exposing weaknesses in the underlying credit structure.
Under his thesis, a significant AI-sector downturn could ultimately lead to greater liquidity creation. That additional liquidity could then flow into alternative assets, including Bitcoin price, strengthening its appeal as a scarce digital asset.
Meanwhile, Hayes placed a much nearer-term target of approximately $125,000 on Bitcoin for year-end earlier in 2026. Reports from May indicated that he had reduced his near-term forecast from substantially higher levels while continuing to maintain a bullish long-term outlook.
On the other hand, the latest US PCE inflation data came in cooler than expected, which has also given some relief to investors over a likely October Fed rate hike decision. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there are now 62% odds of the US Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged.
Source: CME FedWatch Tool Despite that, the market pundits are currently watching the Bitcoin price movements closely, with the current $85k resistance in focus. If BTC can clear through the barriers at $85k and $90k, experts are optimistic about a continuing rally in the near future.
In a major development confirmed on SEPTEMBER 30, 2026, Confirmed announcement/filing for EigenLayer Unveils Dual-Staking Extension For Bitcoin Asset Security. This operational move highlights expanding activity across the digital asset ecosystem and underscores key developments for market participants.
Key Operational Milestones & Context According to primary regulatory and corporate filings verified on SEPTEMBER 30, 2026, this development introduces crucial infrastructure enhancements. Industry leaders note that maintaining robust compliance, security, and market liquidity remains essential as digital asset services integrate into broader institutional frameworks.
The transition reflects a strategic pivot toward scalable, transparent operations. Analysts emphasize that ongoing technological upgrades will play a central role in sustaining user confidence and market stability over the coming quarter.
Market Outlook and Industry Impact As institutional participation accelerates across global markets, this landmark event sets a notable precedent. Traders and investors are closely evaluating liquidity signals and collateral flows following the announcement.
For complete details and primary verification, the official release is accessible via the primary source link: EigenLayer Unveils Dual-Staking Extension For Bitcoin Asset Security Official Disclosure.
It looks like the market still has not fully priced in the upcoming midterm elections.
As of now, the market seems to be focused on the FOMC, where shifting rate expectations have caused the market to be quite volatile. The latest jobs data has added to this volatility, with rate-cut expectations dropping to 50% from 70% before the report.
The result? Bitcoin Options traders are increasingly positioning for a move above $90k, suggesting that the market is beginning to price in a bull rally.
On-chain data suggests that this positioning may not be too far-fetched. According to CryptoQuant, profit taking has just hit a 2026 high, while traders’ unrealized profits are climbing to 33%.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Spot-Futures divergence continues to widen, pointing to rising speculative activity.
Source: Santiment However, Santiment’s latest data sheds some light on why the setup could help Bitcoin.
As can be seen in the chart above, Bitcoin’s large shareholder category is once again in accumulation mode. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC coins increased their holdings by 41,025 BTC over the past ten days, bringing the total amount to 13.64 million, or 67.93%.
In other words, the big players continue to buy.
Taken together, rising profit-taking and renewed whale accumulation suggests a textbook STH to LTH transition. In other words, BTC’s sideways consolidation around $85k may be less about weakness and more about supply shifting into stronger hands.
If that trend continues, it could support a move toward $90k for Bitcoin in early Q4, in line with the bullish positioning building in the options market.
Bitcoin’s $90k setup faces a liquidity test The market is sending a clear signal: Bitcoin’s correction is a liquidity story.
In other words, for Bitcoin to fall below 83,000, together with higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, higher oil prices, and renewed geopolitical tensions, is signaling tighter financial conditions and less liquidity in the market.
Why is this important? Utkarsh Ahuja, Founder and Managing Partner at Moon Pursuit Capital, explained to AMBCrypto:
If the investor can earn more than 5% on a 10-year US Treasury, riskier assets have to compensate him for taking on additional risks. The same calculation applies across portfolios.
He continued,
The investors should ask themselves if they are paid enough for the risks that they take, because compared to the yields of safer assets, the weak balance sheets, excessive leverage and speculative valuations become very hard to justify.
In layman’s terms, higher yields increase the appeal of safer assets, which tends to suppress riskier assets such as Bitcoin, particularly when liquidity is already tight and leverage across the board is expanding.
With that said, the recent jobs report could act as a bullish catalyst, adding some credibility to Bitcoin’s potential $90k+ breakout. But there’s a catch.
With liquidity already being a concern, spot demand still weak, and speculative activity rising, can tokenization alone provide enough liquidity ‘momentum’ to the crypto market to continue its upward trajectory?
The RWA boom is bullish for DeFi, but there’s a catch Oftentimes, the market views DeFi growth as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.
Tokenization plays an important role in it. The RWA sector reached over $38 billion in on-chain assets, with millions of holders in tokenized markets. The growth is being driven by tokenized Treasuries and others.
As the chart below shows, U.S. tokenized Treasury funds are set to close Q3 with total assets hitting a record $16 billion. The steady rise shows that demand for tokenized yield products is picking up.
With the demand for U.S. Treasuries also rising, it could create a stronger liquidity bridge between TradFi and crypto.
Source: RWA.xyz However, Ahuja warned that the trend should be looked at separately from Bitcoin’s short-term price movement.
Beyond the immediate market I am watching institutional tokenisation because it operates on a completely different timeline to daily crypto prices.
Notably,
Bitcoin can sell off while the infrastructure supporting digital assets continues to advance, and investors need to separate those two realities.
In essence, the market does not see higher tokenized treasury yields and increased TradFi inflows into DeFi as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.
The reason is simply that this liquidity is not large enough to offset the rising speculative positioning, thus keeping the overall liquidity test around Bitcoin [BTC] intact.
Could Bitcoin repeat its post-midterm crash pattern? Given the setup above and the historical trends, a mid-Q4 crash cannot be ignored.
Bitcoin appears to be in a textbook accumulation phase with STHs slowly sliding into LTH holders. However, history adds a risk factor. The U.S. midterm elections are just one month away, and BTC’s performance following the previous midterms is difficult to dismiss.
Following the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, Bitcoin ultimately fell 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively. So the question that arises is, could BTC repeat this pattern? Notably, the current setup keeps the risk factor on the table.
Source: X The reasoning is sound: Bitcoin supply is consolidating with bigger and bigger holders, fresh buyers are sidelined, macro FUD is getting louder, and liquidity is still constrained.
Given these historical patterns, a sell-off from these large holders could quickly trigger a deeper correction.
With limited fresh liquidity coming in, there may not be enough Spot demand to absorb the selling pressure, leaving BTC vulnerable to a sharp downside move.
Hence, with the midterms approaching, a retest of the $73k level cannot be ruled out if a liquidity unwind triggers cascading pressure across the futures and options markets.
MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor says he wants rival Strive to succeed. He made the case in an essay on X on Wednesday.
Strive is a smaller company that also buys Bitcoin (BTC). MicroStrategy holds more of the asset than any other listed firm, which makes Saylor’s support for a competitor unusual.
Michael Saylor Says His Bitcoin Rival Makes Strategy StrongerBoth companies follow the same playbook. They raise money from investors and use it to buy Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy holds 847,666 BTC, more than any other listed company. Strive ranks fifth among public holders with 27,462 BTC, BitcoinTreasuries data shows.
Top 10 Public Bitcoin Treasury Companies. Source: Bitcoin Treasuries “I want Strive to succeed. I want every well-managed issuer of Bitcoin-powered Digital Credit to succeed,” Saylor indicated.
In Saylor’s view, every coin Strive buys adds demand for an asset with a fixed supply. A higher price, he argued, would lift the value of both companies’ holdings.
Strategy ($MSTR) and Strive ($ASST) share a Bitcoin foundation. Broader adoption can strengthen balance sheets, lower credit costs, and expand equity valuations. We are building Digital Capital, Digital Credit, and Digital Equity together. https://t.co/6poRRU5GWG
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) September 30, 2026 Both firms also sell shares that pay investors a regular income. MicroStrategy calls its version STRC, while Strive calls its SATA.
Saylor wrote that more sellers could build investor trust and lower borrowing costs for all. Strive CEO Matt Cole agreed in a reply, saying the two firms are stronger together.
The opportunity for our industry is to grow Digital Credit into a multi-trillion dollar asset class. That requires trusted issuers, disciplined execution and track records that earn investor confidence.
Strive and Strategy are stronger together.
Great post by @saylor. https://t.co/cXR4DnWf2B
— Matt Cole (@ColeMacro) September 30, 2026 Strive Is Also a Strategy CustomerThe ties between the two firms go further. In March, Strive bought $50 million of MicroStrategy’s STRC shares.
Saylor has also congratulated Strive on its Bitcoin purchases, including 1,355 BTC on September 21. Both firms bought again this week, with MicroStrategy adding 1,666 BTC.
Where Saylor’s Bitcoin Pitch Gets HarderBitcoin pays no interest, and Saylor acknowledged as much in the same essay. That means the income promised to investors must come from company cash or new fundraising.
Strive raised 85% of the money for its latest purchase by selling SATA, Cole said. The company paid an average of $85,396 per coin, while Bitcoin traded near $83,699 on Wednesday.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoInvestors are not fully convinced, either. DWF Ventures found that only four of the top 20 crypto treasury stocks trade above the value of the coins they hold.
Saylor himself warned that one weak company could damage trust across the whole sector
Joseph Lubin Transfers 133,298 $ETH ($356.2M) to New Wallet
A wallet linked to #Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin(@ethereumJoseph) transferred 133,298 $ETH ($356.2M) to a new wallet 5 hours ago.
1 hours ago
US stocks closed on Wednesday, with the three major indices ending mixed, while AI and crypto-related individual stocks saw stable volatility.
According to data from BIT (bit.com), U.S. stocks closed on Wednesday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially fell 0.86%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.25%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.24%. Intel (INTC.O) gained 3.71%, and Apple (AAPL.O) rose 1.1%. Most other AI-related and crypto-themed stocks saw price moves of less than 1%, with overall market volatility remaining relatively stable.
1 hours ago
Ripple unlocks 1 billion XRP tokens, valued at approximately $1.49 billion.
According to monitoring by OnchainLens, Ripple has completed the unlocking of 1 billion XRP via its escrow accounts, with a total value of approximately $1.49 billion.
1 hours ago
A crypto whale added $66 million worth of ZEC to its holdings, pushing its main wallet balance to $66.19 million.
According to OnchainLens monitoring, a crypto whale withdrew 2,000 ZEC from Binance, worth roughly $2.82 million. The funds were later consolidated from two wallets to the whale’s primary accumulation address. Currently, this main accumulation wallet holds ZEC valued at approximately $66.19 million.
1 hours ago
Multicoin Capital Transfers $8.34 Million Worth of HYPE to Coinbase Prime Again, Suspected of Preparing to Sell
According to monitoring by OnchainLens, a wallet linked to Multicoin Capital has deposited 92,380 HYPE tokens into Coinbase Prime, valued at approximately $8.34 million, and is suspected of preparing to sell the holdings.
The Fed just raised rates, yet Bitcoin keeps climbing. Mark Moss, host of the Market Disruptors podcast, explains why he thinks most people are misreading why long-term rates are rising, how a booming economy could be part of the answer, and why he says Bitcoin benefits from both the debasement trade and a bullish technological future.
Chapters:
0:00 Mark Moss on the Fed’s “Token Raise” and an October Pause
1:54 The Flat Yield Curve, Bank Lending, and the 5.1% 10-Year
2:56 Why Bitcoin Is Rising as Rates Rise: “Price Is Truth”
5:40 Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Debasement Trade and a Bullish Future
6:19 Can the US Grow Its Way Out of $40 Trillion in Debt?
10:30 The Monetary Reset Is a Process, Not an Event
13:33 Four Ways Out of the Debt Problem and What Happens in 2029–2030
16:27 Stablecoins, the Genius Act, and Why 6 Billion People Want Dollars
20:14 Institutions Are Buying Bitcoin While Retail Sells
24:29 Bitcoin’s S-Curve, Its CAGR, and a $1 Million Price Target
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
Patrick Green
Patrick Green is an Assistant Producer and Channel Manager on the multimedia team at Bitcoin Magazine, focusing on production, content distribution, and channel strategy across the network.
PANews reported on October 1 that the Bitcoin Policy Institute released a report titled "Wall Street's Invisible Committee," questioning MSCI's proposed changes to index inclusion rules that could exclude certain Bitcoin treasury companies (Digital Asset Treasury Companies, DATCOs). The institute stated that MSCI-managed indices involve roughly $21 trillion in benchmark assets, and when index rules change, funds tracking the relevant indices may need to adjust their holdings, triggering large-scale capital reallocation.
The Bitcoin Policy Institute said that MSCI had previously proposed in 2025 to exclude digital asset treasury companies (i.e., enterprises with at least 50% of assets in digital assets), but suspended the move after encountering opposition. This year, MSCI reintroduced a broader classification standard targeting "non-operating companies," and simulations showed that the rule could exclude companies such as Strategy and Metaplanet. The institute found an internal file path containing "Projects/DATCOs/Operating vs Non Operating" in the metadata of MSCI's public consultation documents, which it said raised questions about whether the rule was designed to target digital asset companies. However, the institute also acknowledged that metadata alone cannot prove that MSCI predetermined the exclusion outcome.
In addition, the Bitcoin Policy Institute noted that MSCI published an article titled "Creeping Crypto" in 2021 discussing the impact of crypto assets entering the stock market, and examined companies' crypto asset exposure from an ESG perspective. At the same time, the institute pointed out that MSCI's management has publicly supported ESG investment principles in the past.
The Bitcoin Policy Institute believes that the "operating assets" standard MSCI intends to adopt lacks a sufficiently clear classification framework and could affect companies in emerging industries, and called for greater transparency and reproducibility in the index-setting process. The report represents the views of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, and MSCI has not yet responded to the report.
Robinhood is bringing crypto perpetual futures to US customers, with up to 10x leverage on Bitcoin and Ether. Nicola White, Robinhood’s vice president of institutional crypto, explains how the CFTC no-action letter, the Bitstamp exchange, and Robinhood Derivatives made it happen, and why the company wants markets to be always on.
Chapters:
0:00 Robinhood’s Hood Summit: 24/7 Stock Trading and US Crypto Perps
0:40 Why Robinhood Wants Markets That Never Close
1:32 Bitstamp Perps and the CFTC No-Action Letter
2:19 Tokenized Stocks, the Basis Trade, and the Path for US Perps
3:20 Bitstamp’s Volume and the Retail–Institutional Merger
4:54 What Institutions Want to Do With Bitcoin
6:00 Institutional Bitcoin Depth and Large Block Trades
6:49 AI Trading Agents and Robinhood’s Sub-Account Controls
8:29 Lessons From the 2022 Meltdown and US Leverage Limits
10:12 How Bitcoin Changes Finance in 10 Years and What’s Next for Tokenized Stocks
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
Patrick Green
Patrick Green is an Assistant Producer and Channel Manager on the multimedia team at Bitcoin Magazine, focusing on production, content distribution, and channel strategy across the network.
