Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

13h05 ▪ 3 min read ▪ by Fenelon L.

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Nearly one million TRUMP wallets show cumulative losses of 3.81 billion dollars by the end of June, according to Nansen. However, President Trump received 636 million dollars thanks to this same token, reveals his annual financial statement. The distribution of gains nevertheless clearly leans to one side.

In brief Nearly one million wallets, or two out of three buyers, show losses on the TRUMP token by the end of June, totaling 3.81 billion dollars. Donald Trump declared 636 million dollars of income linked to this token in his annual financial declaration, published on June 30 by the Office of Government Ethics. The TRUMP token trades around 1.78 dollars, down 97% since its peak in January 2025. Losses concentrated among the most recent buyers Out of 1.48 million wallets having purchased the TRUMP token, 988,905 show losses by the end of June. This total also includes unrealized losses on tokens still held.

The very first buyers hold most of the gains. They entered below the dollar mark, before the token surged to 75 dollars two days later.

On all wallets combined, gains and losses almost balance out. The net balance reaches about 236 million dollars.

This amount represents barely one third of the 636 million declared by Trump. These figures come from a report by The Block.

Why does Trump’s financial declaration rekindle the controversy? The 927-page asset declaration details the origin of these revenues. Published on June 30 by the Office of Government Ethics, it lists payments passing through CIC Digital LLC.

These amounts add, moreover, to hundreds of millions of dollars linked to World Liberty Financial. This decentralized finance project is partly owned by the Trump family.

Donald Trump has, however, already dismissed criticisms regarding these revenues. He claims that external institutions manage his money, for the benefit of the entire crypto sector.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly defends this record. She asserts that the administration acts in the interest of Americans.

The WLFI token, linked to the same project, shows a similar record. Nansen tracks 26,663 wallets that have bought WLFI on secondary markets.

Among them, 85% are at a loss. These losses reach 83 million dollars versus 23 million dollars in gains.

The broader crypto market downturn also amplifies this contrast. Bitcoin has dropped about 50% since its October record above 126,000 dollars, bringing the market capitalization of the TRUMP token to 425 million dollars, compared to nearly 15 billion at its peak in January 2025.

This decline occurs as Congress reviews the CLARITY Act. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is pushing to ban elected officials from issuing tokens, a provision already dropped from the GENIUS Act when it was adopted last year.

This contrast between presidential revenues and losses of small holders continues to fuel criticism of crypto regulation issued by public officials, a topic Congress has yet to decide on.

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Fenelon L.

Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun reportedly transferred a portion of his WBTC and ETH purchases from June to Binance, making a profit of approximately $3.4 million at current prices.

According to on-chain data, Wang Chun purchased approximately 70,600 ETH and 966 WBTC in June. The total value of these purchases is estimated to be around $117 million for ETH and approximately $60.29 million for WBTC.

Following the recovery in the cryptocurrency market in July, Wang Chun reportedly transferred 36,600 ETH and 160 WBTC to Binance in recent days. These transfers are believed to be aimed at profit-taking after the dips seen in June.

On the other hand, another significant transaction that caught attention in the market came from a wallet allegedly linked to Mining Express. Approximately 16 hours ago, this wallet reportedly exchanged 5,004 ETH for around 8.8 million DAI.

Blockchain researcher Specter stated that he first identified this address on June 15th, but recently completed the detailed tracking and analysis process. Specter also shared multiple linked wallets to verify the address.

This large-scale ETH swap has raised questions in the market regarding past fund movements and potential liquidation motivations. According to Specter’s analysis, the address has an on-chain connection to the Mining Express project, launched in Ukraine in 2019 by Brazilian founder Kaze Fuziyama.

Mining Express initially attracted investors with a multi-level marketing model, but was later accused of being a Ponzi scheme. After halting repayments, the project shifted its focus to cloud rendering and similar business models.

Historical on-chain records show that the wallet in question received 4,512 ETH from a linked address on March 19, 2024, and subsequently staked these assets via Lido and Ether.fi. As of April 2026, all of the ETH was staked, and it was completely unstaken on May 4th.

*This is not investment advice.

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Cardano's ADA has also shown positive signs of a more profound revival.

Bitcoin’s gradual price recovery that began after the early July correction continues, as the asset briefly exceeded $63,000 yesterday and now stands around that level.

Most larger-cap alts remain relatively sluggish on a daily scale, aside from SOL, HYPE, and XLM, which have dropped by up to 4%, and ADA and BCH, which have posted notable gains.

BTC Eyes $63K June was quite painful for the primary cryptocurrency, as it dropped by over 20%. July began on a similar note, as the asset dipped below $58,000 to chart a new multi-year low. However, the bulls finally intervened at this point and didn’t allow another leg down.

Just the opposite; bitcoin started to recover some ground and quickly reclaimed the $60,000 mark. After a brief dip below that line, the bulls went on the offensive once again, pushing the asset to $62,000 as the net withdrawals from the ETFs eased and investors poured some money in on Thursday.

BTC remained calm at above $61,000 and jumped once again on Saturday and earlier this morning, going to a multi-week peak of $63,400. Although it was stopped there, it now trades close to $63,000, posting a near 5% increase on a weekly scale.

Its market capitalization has risen to $1.260 trillion on CoinGecko, but its dominance over the altcoins remains well below 57%.

BTCUSD July 5. Source: TradingView LAB Rockets Ethereum was stopped at $1,800 yesterday and now sits at just over $1,760. BNB’s run couldn’t reclaim $580, and the asset trades below that level now. XRP is under $1.15, while SOL is testing the $80 support after a 2.4% daily decline.

HYPE and XLM have dropped even harder, with a 4% decrease from the former and a 3.4% dip from the latter. In contrast, ADA continues its recovery with another 9% surge to well over $0.19. BCH is up by around 6% and sits at $240.

LAB is by far the top gainer today, having skyrocketed by 80%. The asset, which has seen some intense volatility as of late, now trades at over $16.

The total crypto market cap has increased slightly from yesterday and now sits at $2.230 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview July 5. Source: QuantifyCrypto

Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy recently told Fox Business’ *Varney & Co.* that he will not sell his Bitcoin holdings even if the cryptocurrency drops to zero. He told host Stuart Varney, “I’m holding on forever, even if it goes to zero,” adding that he would rather “go down with the ship” this time than repeat his past mistake of selling only to see prices surge afterward. Portnoy admitted he bought Bitcoin at a high near $100,000 and is now sitting on millions in unrealized losses. He confessed that his Bitcoin trade is “the biggest mistake I’ve ever made,” noting that every time he sells, prices skyrocket, and every time he buys, prices drop. Notably, Portnoy has a history of controversial moves in the meme coin space: In February 2025, he launched the GREED token on Pump.fun, bought 35.79% of its total supply, then dumped all his holdings at once, causing the token to crash 99% while he pocketed around $258,000 in profits. After facing backlash, he released GREED2 and JAILSTOOL in succession, admitting during a live stream that he “did consider a rug pull, and might still be thinking about it.” He has also been involved in the collapse of the LIBRA token, which was endorsed by Argentine President Javier Milei: he bought $4.5 million worth of the token, later recovering $5 million in compensation. Earlier, he settled a lawsuit related to SafeMoon for $20,000.

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Summary

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record June outflows, with more than $4 billion leaving as institutional risk appetite weakened. Whale wallets accumulated about 270,000 BTC worth $16.7 billion during the same period, signaling strong on-chain buying. The split suggests Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether ETF flows recover or macro pressure forces another leg lower. Two things happened in the Bitcoin market in the second half of June, and they cannot both be right.

The first happened in brokerage accounts. United States spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $4.06 billion in June, the worst calendar month since the products launched in January 2024, surpassing the previous record of $3.56 billion set in February 2025.

Depending on where the cutoff lands, some counts put the figure closer to $4.5 billion. The bleeding was not a single bad week: it followed a record 13-day outflow streak from mid-May that had already drained $4.37 billion, and by month-end the funds were net negative for 2026 as a whole, the first time cumulative yearly flows have gone red since the ETFs existed. The largest fund did most of the draining, shedding roughly $3.55 billion on its own.

The second happened on-chain. Over the final 2 weeks of that same stretch, wallets classified as whales accumulated more than 270,000 BTC, roughly $16.7 billion at prevailing prices, according to Bitfinex analysts. The buying happened while the spot premium, a gauge of how aggressively United States buyers are bidding, stayed negative, meaning the demand was not coming from American spot desks. Glassnode’s cohort data confirmed the shift from a second angle: long-term holders flipped back to net accumulation across wallet sizes at the start of July, even as the ETF prints stayed red.

$4 billion walked out one door while $16 billion walked in another. That is not noise. That is the two most-watched capital cohorts in this market taking opposite sides of the same trade at the same prices, and the resolution of that disagreement is the Bitcoin story for the rest of the year.

The month that broke the ETF narrative The scale of June’s institutional retreat deserves its own accounting, because the spot ETFs were supposed to be the structural bid that made this cycle different.

The pitch, repeated across 2 years of allocator decks, was that regulated wrappers would convert Bitcoin from a sentiment asset into an allocation, with sticky advisory money arriving in measured percentages and staying through drawdowns the way it stays in equity funds.

For most of 2024 and 2025, the pitch held: inflows compounded, the products swallowed multiples of new mined supply, and every dip met a wrapper-shaped bid. June was the first month that tested the sticky part of the story at scale, and the answer was unambiguous. Faced with a real macro shock, the allocation behaved exactly like every other risk allocation in the book, which is to say it left, on schedule, through the most liquid exit, without ceremony.

Price told the top-line story: Bitcoin fell from around $74,000 to near $58,000 across the month, touched 21-month lows, and closed a week below its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023, a line that has historically marked deep cycle lows and long accumulation zones. Sentiment followed price into the basement, with the Fear and Greed Index pinned between 11 and 15, deep in extreme fear, through the back half of the month. Retail’s search behavior matched the mood: queries for Bitcoin going to 0 hit record highs earlier this year, and broader crypto search interest has only recently begun recovering from 1-year lows.

The flow mechanics beneath the price were the real damage. As crypto.news reported when the record was confirmed, the Coinbase Premium stayed negative through June, apparent demand stayed deeply negative, and ETF redemptions became the dominant driver of daily price action, averaging out to roughly $180 million to $200 million in net selling per trading day. When the products finally printed a green day on July 2, a $221 million inflow that ended a 10-day losing streak, the breadth told its own story: One fund took in $166 million while the largest fund was still bleeding $40 million on the day flows supposedly turned.

Three forces stacked up to produce the exodus. Macro did the heavy lifting: May inflation printed a hot 4.2%, the Federal Reserve spent June sounding restrictive, and institutional risk mandates de-allocate mechanically when real-rate expectations rise, without any view on Bitcoin specifically. Regulatory whiplash added a second layer, with the market structure fight in the Senate stalling and starting through the month, leaving custody and licensing frameworks unresolved for exactly the institutions the ETFs serve. And a third force was more mundane: competition for risk capital.

The SpaceX listing raised $75 billion in the middle of the drawdown, the largest liquidity event in market history, and some of the money that would otherwise have sat in crypto risk simply had somewhere more exciting to be, a dynamic that carried straight into the tokenized trading frenzy around the stock.

Whatever the weights on those three, the conclusion the flows describe is uniform: the marginal institutional holder of wrapped Bitcoin spent June getting out.

Inside the machine that sold The phrase ETF outflows compresses a mechanical process worth uncompressing, because the mechanics explain why the selling was so relentless and why it can reverse just as mechanically.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs do not hold sentiment; they hold coins against shares. When holders sell more shares than buyers absorb, authorized participants redeem the excess, the fund sheds Bitcoin, and the coins hit the market as programmatic supply. Through June, that redemption machine ran nearly every session, and the composition mattered as much as the total.

The largest fund was the epicenter, accounting for roughly $3.55 billion of the month’s bleed on its own, which reads less as 1,000 small investors leaving and more as a handful of very large allocators de-risking through the deepest door available. Smaller funds bled proportionally less, and when the streak finally broke on July 2, the breadth stayed poor: the $221 million net inflow decomposed into one rival fund absorbing $166 million while the flagship still lost $40 million.

A genuine flow regime change looks like several consecutive green days across the complex, led by the largest fund; one day of one fund catching a falling knife does not qualify, and desks that trade these flows professionally treat anything less than 3-5 confirming sessions as noise.

The forced-seller identity question has a partial answer in the parallel stress that ran through the corporate treasury complex during the same weeks. Strategy’s preferred shares sold off hard enough that Bitwise published a note framing the episode as a late-cycle leverage unwind, with over-extended structures deleveraging while institutions positioned to replace them as the marginal buyer. Miners added their own supply, with MARA’s reported $1.5 billion Bitcoin sale putting the biggest corporate mining treasury on the sell side just as ETF redemptions peaked.

Add the SpaceX raise vacuuming $75 billion of risk appetite out of the same investor base, and June’s selling resolves into something more specific than fear: a synchronized deleveraging across every wrapped, leveraged, and mandated form of Bitcoin exposure at once, while the unwrapped form of the asset quietly changed hands underneath.

That specificity matters for what comes next. Deleveraging events are finite by construction: forced sellers run out of the thing they are forced to sell.

Sentiment-driven bear markets can grind for years, but a leverage unwind ends when the leverage is gone, and several of June’s selling engines, the redemption streak, the preferred-share stress, the miner treasury sales, have visibly decelerated into July.

The buyers who showed up anyway Now the other side of the ledger, because it is bigger.

The 270,000 BTC that whale wallets absorbed in 2 weeks is not a normal accumulation print. It is more than the entire ETF complex sold in the month, absorbed in half the time, at prices between roughly $58,000 and $62,000. The negative spot premium during the buying window is the detail that locates the buyers: this demand was not United States spot desks and not the ETF creation mechanism. It was large holders, a category that spans exchanges, custodians, early-cycle capital, and entities that never touch a regulated wrapper, taking delivery while the wrapper crowd distributed.

Glassnode’s supply data adds the pain context that makes the accumulation more notable, not less. At the start of July, roughly 10.8 million BTC sat at an unrealized loss against 9.2 million in profit, a ratio that historically appears near capitulation zones, not near tops. Long-term holders turning to net accumulation into that kind of tape is the specific pattern that marked the depths of 2022 and the pre-ETF trough of 2023: the coins move from stressed hands to patient ones before any recovery shows up in price, and the transfer is only visible in hindsight to anyone watching price alone.

The whale cohort’s composition is admittedly opaque, and honest analysis says so. Wallets above 1,000 BTC are a crude proxy that includes exchange consolidation, custodial reshuffling, and over-the-counter settlement alongside genuine conviction buying. But the 2-week scale, the direction, and the corroboration from long-term holder metrics make the benign explanations hard to stretch across the whole print. Someone with size decided that sub-$60,000 Bitcoin was a purchase, at the exact moment the most regulated distribution channel in the asset’s history was running in reverse.

There is also a rotation story inside the accumulation. The buying coincided with capital moving toward on-chain yield and infrastructure rather than away from crypto entirely: tokenized real-world assets crossed $20 billion in on-chain value, and Solana, the strongest major through the drawdown, rose about 15% since early June with tokenized asset transfers on the network up 120% to $8.53 billion, extending the performance gap that has defined the L1 race all year. The pattern suggests large investors were not abandoning the asset class. They were leaving the most liquid, most scrutinized wrapper and taking positions closer to the metal.

10 straight days of $BTC ETF outflows, 35,980 BTC gone, yet price up 3% above $62.5k. Whales absorbing the sell pressure while retail panics. This is textbook accumulation. The discord saw this divergence early – link in bio pic.twitter.com/eeTNxp7vrS

— CT Anano (@CT_Anano) July 4, 2026 That rotation reframes what the ETF outflows even measure. The funds were sold to the world as the institutionalization of Bitcoin, and their flows became the market’s favorite proxy for smart money. June exposed the proxy’s limits: the wrapper tracks one specific investor type, the benchmark-constrained allocator, whose behavior is the most macro-sensitive and least conviction-driven in the entire holder base.

The actual institutional spectrum now runs from those allocators through corporate treasuries, miners, sovereign-adjacent funds, and on-chain natives, and in June those groups pointed in three different directions at once. Reading Bitcoin through ETF flows alone in this market is like reading equities through one mutual fund complex: informative, loud, and structurally incomplete.

What the divergence has meant before Splits between institutional flows and on-chain accumulation are rare enough to have a track record, and the track record leans one way.

The clearest precedent predates the ETFs: through late 2022 and 2023, while the Grayscale trust traded at a discount that made institutional sentiment look terminal, and every regulated access story was going backward, large wallets accumulated through the low $20,000s and teens. The buyers who tracked institutional sentiment missed the bottom; the ones who tracked coins on the move caught it.

February 2025 offered a smaller rehearsal of the current setup, with the then-record $3.56 billion ETF outflow month arriving alongside stubborn on-chain absorption, followed by recovery once the macro trigger faded. Bitfinex analysts framed June’s version explicitly in those terms: simultaneous institutional selling and whale accumulation is the pattern that has appeared near past cycle lows, where long-term holders take supply off sellers before the recovery reaches price.

The pattern’s logic is structural, not mystical. ETF flows are downstream of mandates, benchmarks, and quarterly reviews, which makes them systematically late in both directions: the wrapper crowd bought the top of the euphoria and is now selling the bottom of the fear, because that is what risk-managed allocation does. On-chain whales answer to no committee. When the two disagree, the disagreement itself is the signal, because it marks the moment coins transfer from mandate-driven hands to conviction-driven ones.

Retail sentiment data rounds out the historical picture from the contrarian side. Record-high searches for Bitcoin going to 0, extreme-fear readings pinned for weeks, and supply majority-underwater have each individually marked accumulation zones in prior cycles; their simultaneous appearance alongside documented whale absorption is the full bingo card. The caveat that keeps the pattern honest is that sentiment extremes date bottoms only in retrospect, and the same indicators flashed for months through late 2022 while price kept sliding. Fear confirms opportunity for buyers with time horizons measured in years. It punishes everyone else.

None of that makes the signal infallible, and the bear case deserves its full weight. A divergence is not a timing tool: whales were also early in 2022, absorbing supply months before the actual low, and anyone who leveraged the accumulation thesis got carried out before being proven right.

The macro trigger has not disarmed, either. The next inflation print is the live variable, and a hot number would reload the exact mechanism that drained $4 billion in June, since nothing about whale accumulation prevents mandate-driven funds from selling more. Bitwise’s read of the parallel stress in Strategy’s preferred shares, that the market is working through a late-cycle leverage unwind, cuts both ways: unwinds end at bottoms, but they end violently, and the last leg is usually the worst one.

Reading the whale cohort honestly The 1,000 BTC threshold that defines a whale wallet captures several very different animals, and the interpretation of the accumulation depends on which ones did the buying.

The most bullish reading assigns the coins to conviction capital: family offices, early holders reloading, sovereign-adjacent vehicles, and the class of buyer that accumulates through over-the-counter desks precisely to avoid moving the price. The negative spot premium through the buying window supports this reading, since it rules out the visible United States bid, and OTC accumulation into weakness is the classic signature of patient size.

The most boring reading assigns some of the movement to plumbing: exchanges consolidating cold storage, custodians migrating wallets, and settlement flows that inflate cohort statistics without expressing any view. The truth is a blend, and serious on-chain analysts hold the number loosely for exactly that reason.

Two cross-checks tilt the blend toward conviction. The first is the long-term holder metric, which is behavior-based instead of size-based: coins that have not moved in months turning into net accumulation is hard to generate with custodial reshuffling, and Glassnode flagged that shift across cohorts at the start of July. The second is the duration of the pattern. Wallet consolidation is lumpy and episodic; the June accumulation ran daily, through a 2-week window, against a falling price, which is the shape of a program, not a migration. Whoever was executing wanted more Bitcoin every day the price stayed under $62,000, and got it.

It is also worth noting who the whales are buying from, because supply has a face too. The ETF redemptions put a regulated, auditable seller on the tape every session. Miners under margin pressure added inventory. Short-term holders who bought the $70,000s capitulated at 21-month lows, the behavior that pushed over half the supply underwater. The full picture is a wealth transfer with unusually clean bookkeeping: from leveraged, mandated, and exhausted hands into large, unhurried ones, at prices the buyers evidently considered a discount.

The scenario map from $62,000 Divergences resolve, and this one has three plausible endings with watchable triggers.

The repair scenario is the historical base case. Macro softens, the July inflation print cooperates, ETF flows string together green sessions with breadth, and the price reclaims the 200-week average, converting June into another entry in the ledger of cycle lows that on-chain accumulation called early. The whales’ entry zone between $58,000 and $62,000 becomes the level the market defends, because the buyers who own it have shown they defend it. Confirmation looks like the flagship fund flipping to inflows and $62,500 breaking on volume.

The chop scenario is the underpriced one. Inflation stays sticky without spiking, the Fed stays parked, and the market grinds sideways for a quarter while ETF flows oscillate around 0. Whale accumulation in this world is early rather than wrong, the 2022 pattern, where large wallets absorbed supply for months before price agreed with them. The tell is time: patient capital does not mind, leveraged capital dies, and funding rates across the perpetuals complex show which cohort is being tested week by week.

The break scenario is the one the bears own. A hot CPI reloads the redemption machine, the 200-week average rejects the recovery, and $58,000 fails, opening the trapdoor toward the low $50,000s that technicians have flagged since the June breakdown. Even then, the divergence data offers the bears only half a victory: it would mean the whales were early again, not that the transfer did not happen, and every prior cycle says the coins that moved in June do not come back out at these levels regardless of what the next quarter’s candles look like.

There is one more asymmetry the bulls gloss over: the two cohorts do not experience being wrong the same way. If the whales are early, they wait, unleveraged and unbothered, the way they waited through 2022. If the ETF sellers are wrong, they will buy back in at higher prices, book the round trip as risk management, and their investors will barely notice. The divergence is a strong signal about where coins are going and a weak one about when price follows, and conflating those two claims is how retail traders turn a sound accumulation thesis into a liquidation.

The tape since the split The first days of July have started scoring the disagreement, gently, in the whales’ favor. Fed chair Kevin Warsh acknowledged at the Sintra forum that inflation expectations had come down, and Bitcoin jumped more than 4% through $61,000 on the repricing of rate-hike risk. Two days later, a soft jobs report, 57,000 payrolls against expectations near 100,000 with 74,000 in downward revisions, extended the move, and Bitcoin printed $62,310 on Friday, its strongest level in 10 days, while equities set records and the ETF complex managed its first inflow in 2 weeks.

The checkpoints from here are unusually clean. Flows first: One $221 million day against a month of $4 billion proves nothing, and systematic desks want several consecutive green sessions with breadth across funds, including the largest one, before treating the reversal as a regime change rather than a bounce. Price second: $62,500 is the resistance the whole market is watching, and the 200-week average overhead is the structural line that separates a reclaimed cycle from a broken one. Macro third: the next CPI print either confirms Warsh’s softening or reloads the outflow machine.

And underneath all three sits the quieter metric that started this story: whether the coins keep moving to hands that do not sell on committee schedules. The divergence will close one way or the other, because it always does. Either the ETF sellers return as buyers at higher prices, which is how every prior version of this split resolved, or the whales have mistimed a macro regime that mandate money saw first, which would be a first. $16 billion in 2 weeks says the largest holders in the market have already placed their answer. The exit Wall Street used in June is still open. It is just worth noticing who was standing on the other side of it, catching everything that came through.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset markets are volatile, and you can lose your entire investment. Always do your own research. Information current as of July 4, 2026.

A massive pile of data stolen from millions of people’s devices has just been added to a major breach database.

The dataset contains 56 million unique email addresses and 124 million unique passwords across hundreds of millions of records, collected from various infostealer malware sources.

Individuals can check if their email appears in the records on Have I Been Pwned to see if they are affected.

The passwords from the collection have also been added to Have I Been Pwned’s searchable password database.

Users can search specific passwords on the site to check if they have been hacked, but the actual passwords are not shown when searching by email.

This aggregated update of compromised credentials underscores the constant threat of malware attacks.

Users are strongly advised to change passwords immediately on every affected account and enable two-factor authentication wherever supported.

Generated Image: Midjourney

FARTCOIN trades at $0.1635 as analysts say Bitcoin’s direction could push price to $0.22 or even $0.50

Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl argued that Bitcoin’s (BTC) current price levels could be a good, even “exceptional,” entry point for investors under certain conditions.

According to Pandl, whether Bitcoin’s current levels are attractive depends on three key variables: the Fed’s interest rate policy, the CLARITY Act regulation for crypto markets in the US, and Strategy’s balance sheet structure.

Pandl noted that the outlook was progressing positively in all three areas, pointing out that the Bitcoin price was holding support around the $58,000 level.

A Grayscale executive summarized his personal opinion with these words:

“Bitcoin isn’t currently in a discount zone large enough to be considered a ‘close your eyes and buy’ opportunity. However, if the Fed keeps interest rates steady, the Clarity Act is passed, and Strategy’s recent moves restore confidence in its balance sheet structure, Bitcoin may have reached its cyclical bottom. The trend is positive in all three areas.”

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 78.1%. The probability of a 25 basis point rate increase is priced at 21.9%.

According to market data, Bitcoin has surpassed the $63,000 level with its recent recovery, and is currently trading at $62,864 at the time of writing. BTC’s increase in the last 24 hours is 0.98%.

*This is not investment advice.

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Strategy Inc. just did something it swore it would never do. The company announced a Digital Credit Capital Framework on June 29 that formally permits the sale of Bitcoin from its treasury, ending the “never sell” mantra that defined Michael Saylor’s multi-year accumulation strategy.

The framework authorizes up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales through a newly created monetization program. It also greenlights $2 billion in total repurchases, split evenly between $1 billion in Digital Credit Securities and $1 billion in Class A common stock. MSTR shares responded favorably, climbing nearly 7-8% in pre-market trading.

What the framework actually does Strategy currently holds approximately 847,363 BTC, acquired at an average cost of roughly $75,651 per coin. The company’s USD Reserve currently sits at approximately $2.55 billion. Combined with the $1.25 billion Bitcoin monetization authorization, Strategy says it has roughly 25.9 months of liquidity coverage. That’s important because the company’s preferred dividends and interest obligations run about $1.76 billion annually.

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This wasn’t entirely without precedent. In late May 2026, Strategy quietly sold 32 BTC for approximately $2.5 million. It was the company’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022, a small transaction that now looks like a test run for the broader framework.

Why Saylor blinked Strategy has been issuing convertible notes, preferred stock, and other instruments at an aggressive pace to fund its Bitcoin purchases. Those instruments come with obligations, specifically the $1.76 billion in annual dividends and interest.

Saylor and CEO Phong Le framed the shift as a move toward “dynamic capital allocation.” The stated goal is to maximize Bitcoin holdings per share while maintaining enough liquidity to service preferred securities. Rather than maximizing total BTC held, the company is now optimizing for per-share value, which means buybacks funded by selective Bitcoin sales could theoretically be accretive even if the total Bitcoin count drops.

What this means for MSTR investors The $1 billion common stock buyback authorization is particularly interesting. If Strategy sells Bitcoin at high prices and repurchases its own shares at a discount to net asset value, it could increase the Bitcoin-per-share ratio. Sell high on BTC, buy low on MSTR, and each remaining share represents a bigger slice of the Bitcoin pie.

Investors watching MSTR should pay attention to two metrics going forward: the company’s Bitcoin-per-share ratio, which is now the stated optimization target, and the pace at which the $1.25 billion monetization authorization gets deployed.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

David Bailey, founder of Nakamoto, announced that the BIP 110 proposal for the Bitcoin network, which had been scheduled for implementation in the coming weeks, will no longer move forward. The withdrawal of this proposal has reignited the ongoing technical and governance debates that have gripped the Bitcoin community for months.

What was the aim of BIP 110Known as the Reduced Data Temporary Soft Fork, BIP 110 was first introduced by developer Dathon Ohm in December 2025. The proposal intended to place limits on certain types of data included in Bitcoin transactions, which were seen by some as unnecessary. Supporters believed extensive data could undermine Bitcoin’s core role as a value transfer network while increasing the costs of running nodes.

Mini glossary: A soft fork means a backward-compatible rule change in the blockchain, while a node refers to a participant running software to validate transactions and blocks, thereby maintaining network security and decentralization.

The draft envisioned a 34-byte limit for new transaction outputs and an 83-byte cap for certain data types. These limits were designed to last for one year, and coins issued before implementation would not be affected.

David Bailey described the failed soft fork attempt as ultimately positive for Bitcoin, characterizing the cancellation campaign as a hostile takeover attempt.

Weak support, rising oppositionDespite months of discussion, BIP 110 failed to garner enough support. As of February, under 10 percent of Bitcoin nodes signaled in favor, while none of the top 20 mining pools backed the initiative.

Bailey interpreted this not as apathy but as a clear rejection of the proposal at a fundamental level. He labeled the debate a war of information, and claimed some developers sought to steer the network in their own direction.

BitMEX Research warned that the proposed changes could create wallet incompatibilities, disrupt widely used tools, and even put some users’ funds at risk.

Criticism extended further. Some experts noted that strict data caps might still not prevent unwanted transactions. Moreover, there were warnings that implementing the proposal could risk splitting Bitcoin’s network into incompatible versions—echoing splits like Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV in the past.

Arguments over data usage on Bitcoin’s blockchain are nothing new. One side warns that storing excessive data bloats the chain and discourages users from running full nodes. Opponents of restrictions, however, contend that limits could stifle innovation and would be easily circumvented by new techniques.

To demonstrate that large files could still be added under new rules, Martin Habovstiak uploaded a 66-kilobyte image to the blockchain. An October software update last year removed longstanding limits, further fueling the debate. In response, some users shifted to Bitcoin Knots; by February, Knots accounted for roughly a quarter of all Bitcoin nodes.

Network split and transaction load in the spotlightAlthough BIP 110 has now been shelved, discussions about the network’s future are far from over. Some still argue that data-heavy features like ordinals and runes could drive up transaction fees and attract increased regulatory scrutiny. Right now, such transactions make up over 67 percent of all Bitcoin transfers.

TitleDataBIP 110 supportBelow 10 percent as of FebruaryTop 20 mining poolsNo participationShare of Bitcoin KnotsAround a quarterOrdinals and runes transactionsAbove 67 percentThere remains a remote chance that a small group of nodes or miners could attempt to independently activate BIP 110. Such a move could pave the way for two parallel Bitcoin versions: one enforcing stricter data limits, the other maintaining today’s structure.

For now, the risks of major wallet incompatibility or an outright network split are seen as diminished. However, the possibility that the community’s next technical proposal could trigger similar divisions remains a point of concern.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Bonk [BONK] has emerged as one of the memecoins beginning to make a strong case for itself over the weekend. As Bitcoin [BTC] inched closer to the $64K local supply zone, some altcoins recorded their own short-term gains, outpacing those of BTC in the process.

BONK is one such altcoin. It has rallied by just over 10% in the last 24 hours. Though a weekend, it also recorded a daily trading volume spike of 152%, giving the rally some substance.

Coinalyze data showed that BONK Open Interest was up by 33.9% too. Strong speculative demand and spot volume hinted at a potential BONK bullish continuation in the coming days.

This is why AMBCrypto took a closer look at the price action to understand what trends swing traders can expect next.

BONK’s long-term trend has not yet changed decisively Source: BONK/USDT on TradingView The swing structure of the memecoin was bearish on the 1-day timeframe. This structural break came early in June (green), and a new swing low at $0.00000391 was registered.

Since posting this low, BONK has bounced by 27.88% in 9 days. At the time of writing, it was challenging a local supply zone at $0.000005.

The RSI on the daily timeframe recovered above neutral 50, and the OBV seemed to be approaching the mid-June local high, just like the price. And yet, investors and swing traders must remember that the higher timeframe trend remained bearish.

A price bounce all the way up to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.00000737 might be possible. The $0.0000061-$0.0000073 area is a place that could initiate the next impulse move to keep the swing bearish structure going.

Traders’ call to action – Cautiously bullish Source: BONK/USDT on TradingView The local resistance level at $0.000005 was momentarily breached, but BONK faced a slight setback in recent hours of trading. If this level is flipped to support, it could offer a short-term buying opportunity.

The upward price targets would be $0.0000061-$0.0000073, in line with the higher timeframe structure.

Traders should also keep an eye on Bitcoin trends. A sell-off for the leading crypto could quickly extinguish the flicker of hope in recent days and send BONK prices sliding once again.

Final Summary BONK has made a sizeable price move in the last 24 hours, backed up by strong trading volume. Higher timeframe structure was bearish, but there is a chance the current bounce could extend by another 21%-46%.

Summary

Bitcoin climbed above $63,000 for the first time in two weeks, reversing late-June losses amid a modest rebound in crypto markets.XRP jumped more than 5 percent on the day and nearly 10 percent on the week, overtaking USDC to become the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market value.The rally across major tokens followed a friendlier macro backdrop, including softer U.S. economic data and comments suggesting easing inflation risks, though thin holiday trading may be amplifying price moves.Bitcoin climbed above $63,000 in U.S. morning hours Saturday, up 1.4% over 24 hours and 3.6% on the week, per CoinDesk data, its highest in two weeks and a full reversal of the losses that closed out June.

XRP led the day's majors, up 5.3% to $1.18 and nearly 10% on the week, a move that lifted it past the USDC stablecoin to fifth place by market value at about $73 billion.

The gain came alongside onchain data showing XRP holders at their deepest average losses on record - the kind of washed-out positioning some traders buy against. Ether added 3.2% on the day to about $1,793, up 11.5% over seven days, while dogecoin rose 2.6% and solana held near $82.50 with a 13.2% weekly gain.

The surge extended a week built on a friendlier macro turn. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comment that inflation risks have come down, a soft June jobs report and a squeeze on bearish traders carried bitcoin from below $60,000 to above $63,000 in five sessions.

Trading was thin on Saturday with U.S. markets shut for the Independence Day holiday, the kind of liquidity that exaggerates moves in both directions.

Bitcoin entered the third quarter at 21-month lows and has now recovered the ground lost in June's final slide. Whether the momentum holds turns on the coming U.S. inflation print and on whether buying continues once U.S. desks return from the holiday.

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Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness

Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness

Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.

Jun 30, 2026

Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.

Why it matters:

Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.

We will also review the landscape around the Ethereum ETFs in this article.

The last trading day of the previous business week finally brought some more net inflows rather than consistent outflows for the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.

The products tracking the world’s largest altcoin had even more to celebrate at the end of the week, but still closed in the red.

The Good and the Bad: BTC ETF Edition There’s no need to sugarcoat the end result – the week was still dominated by the bears. Investors pulling out funds from the spot Bitcoin ETFs withdrew $526.64 million throughout the four-day trading week. This means that the overall negative streak continues as the products have not seen a single green week in almost two months.

Within this timeframe, the total cumulative flows have dumped from $59.34 billion to $51.08 billion. July 1 saw the most daily withdrawals, with $294.62 million leaving the funds, according to SoSoValue data. Another $222.64 million went out on June 30 and $231.10 million on June 29. That’s all on the negative side.

The bright side was July 2. After 10 consecutive days of only net inflows, the streak was broken as investors poured in $221.72 million. Moreover, this was the highest single-day inflow recorded since May 5. Friday was a non-trading day due to the July 4 holiday, meaning that the week ended on a more positive note.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Net Flows. Source: SoSoValue Ethereum ETF Edition The daily performance of the financial vehicles tracking ETH was even more promising. The Ethereum ETFs saw more modest $30.04 million withdrawals on June 29 and $27.60 million on June 30. However, the tides turned during the next two business days.

Investors poured in $14.89 million on Wednesday and $29.08 million on Thursday, marking a near-monthly high. Nevertheless, the week still ended in the red, with total net outflows of $13.67 million. As such, the negative streak of the Ethereum ETFs continues, with eight straight weeks in the red. The total cumulative flows are down from $12.09 billion in early May to $10.89 billion on Thursday.

You may also like: The Vanishing Bitcoin Bid: Where Are the ETF Billions Going? Bitcoin and Gold Are Bleeding – So Where Is the Money Going? XRP and HYPE Keep Winning the ETF Race as SOL Joins BTC and ETH On the more positive side, though, it was a lot less harmful than the $273.34 million taken out during the previous business week.

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The crypto market likes to pretend it’s decentralized until the bluechip crypto’s start moving. Then suddenly everything dances to the same rhythm.

The data on CoinMarketCap shows that the top eight crypto assets by market capitalization: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, TRX, and HYPE command a combined valuation of roughly $1.71 trillion. With the total crypto market sitting near $2.17 trillion, these assets effectively control the direction of the entire industry.

And two names still run the show. BTC accounts for 57.8% of the market while ETH holds another 9.8%, giving the pair overwhelming influence whenever either decides to move.

June Support Levels Became The Battleground For Bluechip Crypto’s Early June produced an important stress test across the bluechip crypto market. BTC established support near $59,249. DOGE found buyers around $0.078, BNB price stabilized near $557, XRP built a floor around $1.05, while SOL defended $60.

TRX held support at $0.31, HYPE protected the $52.99 region, and ETH built demand near $1,559. The interesting part came later.

Four Assets Refused To Break DownDuring late June, BTC, DOGE, BNB, and XRP slipped below those early support zones briefly, suggesting selling pressure remained dominant at that time.

But in SOL, TRX, HYPE, and ETH told a different story. Those assets held their June lows, indicating buyers were willing to absorb supply even while broader market sentiment remained shaky.

July Momentum Is Starting To SpreadWith BTC climbing roughly 9% over the past four days in early July, the rest of the bluechip complex has started responding.

If the rally continues, BTC could revisit $67,050 which is mid-June level, while DOGE may target $0.091, BNB $630, and XRP $1.30, which are also the peak of mid-June.

Meanwhile, SOL has already reclaimed levels above its mid-June high of near $75, potentially opening a path toward $98 now. TRX could look toward $0.37, HYPE toward $76 and potentially beyond $80, while ETH may aim for $2,395.

Additionally, rising 24-hour address activity across several of these networks since mid-June suggests user participation is beginning to improve alongside price action. For bluechip crypto assets, that combination tends to matter.

Story Ends Here

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Read the Next News

MicroStrategy CEO Calls Bitcoin ‘United States of Money’

The Hamster Kombat, PEPE, and BONK rally has put meme coins back in focus as traders rotate into higher-risk tokens. 

The top meme coin market cap reached $28 billion today, rising 2.4% in 24 hours. 

Meanwhile, the wider crypto market gained 0.83% to $2.17 trillion. Bitcoin price also surged beyond $62,000, which is risk-appetite.

Hamster Kombat Price Soars 82% as HMSTR Targets $0.00045 Hamster Kombat price jumped 82.35% to $0.000361 in the last 24 hours. The action was timed with new speculative demand being attracted to gaming and meme coins. 

HMSTR outperformed a mostly flat crypto market, showing strong short-term trader interest. Hamster Kompats are widely regarded as one of the most popular tap-to-earn crypto games on Telegram. Its token contributes to the broader Web3 gaming growth of the Open Network.

Why is hamster kombat $HMSTR up ~84% today??

Is it TON season again 👀 pic.twitter.com/1bBP6UJOfr

— Aisar (@aisarcore) July 4, 2026

 The traders are currently observing $0.00030 as the major support zone. A firm hold could lift HMSTR toward the $0.00040 to $0.00045 range. Nevertheless, any withdrawal of that support can lead to a more acute retreat to $0.00020. In the meantime, the momentum remains with active buyers among exchanges.

PEPE Price Gains 6% as Meme Coin Rotation Boosts Trading Activity Pepe coin price surged 6.39% to $0.00000268 over 24 hours, as meme coin demand strengthened. The gain of 0.90% in Bitcoin also contributed toward a broader market sentiment, providing traders with greater confidence in risk assets. There were more active derivatives, as PEPE volume increased by 77% to a total of $662.87 million. 

Open interest also increased by 7.18% to $167.84 million indicating new positions were taken into the marketplace. 

Source: Coinglass data Traders are now watching the $0.00000255 support level for direction. A firm hold could open another test of $0.000003 resistance. A drop under support could however subject PEPE to more pullback down to $0.000002. This retains short-term momentum pegged on buyer strength.

BONK Price Eyes $0.00000520 as MACD Confirms Bullish Momentum As of the time of writing, the BONK price surged to $0.00000494 on Binance’s four-hour chart. The token was accelerated when the buyers drove the price above the $0.00000480 zone. 

The RSI was around 67, which is a good indication of momentum, though it is approaching overbought. The MACD also stayed positive, with the blue line above the signal line. 

Source: Tradingview A clean move above $0.00000500 could open a retest of $0.00000520. However, failure to hold $0.00000480 may trigger weakness toward $0.00000460. Deeper selling could expose $0.00000440 as the next support. Short-term momentum is still controlled by bulls.

What’s Next for These Memecoins: Hamster Kombat, PEPE, and BONK Until then, Hamster Kompact, PEPE, and BONK will be pegged to market risk appetite. The majority of supports can maintain upside targets. However, the drop in volume or the pressure of Bitcoin could soon reverse the profits and traders might want to seek confirmation before adding new positions.

CryptoQuant's CEO Ki Young Ju says that Bitcoin may still have another parabolic cycle ahead, but it will likely require a considerable amount of institutional-scale capital inflows. 

Bitcoin might still enter another major bull cycle, but the amount of money needed to fuel it has grown dramatically compared to previous bull markets, according to the CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju.

In a recent thread, he argued that the cryptocurrency’s capital efficiency has declined considerably as the asset has matured.

In 2011, he said, roughly $2.7 billion in net capital inflows was enough to drive a rally of more than 55,000%. In the current cycle, however, around $697 billion in inflows produced a return of slightly less than 700%.

The main takeaway is quite simple: Bitcoin is much larger now compared to before, and moving its price requires far more capital.

Bitcoin’s Next Parabolic Move May Need Trillions Market cycles are interesting, and all of them, despite some similarities, are quite different.

According to Ju, in 2011, only $5 million in net inflows was enough to double BTC’s price. In this cycle, that figure increased to roughly $101 billion. He believes that the next parabolic run would likely require trillions of dollars in net capital inflows.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that upside is impossible; it just suggests that the asset may need a deeper institutional bid than in the previous cycle.

You may also like: Bitcoin (BTC) Flashes 3 Bullish Signals: $65K Incoming? Bitcoin Reclaims $60K as SOL, BCH Lead Alts Higher (Market Watch) Why Bitwise’s Matt Hougan Thinks Strategy’s Bitcoin Era Is Fading The analyst also framed the issue in terms of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. This is a metric that values each coin based on the price at which it last moved on-chain rather than simply mutliplying the current spot price by its circulating supply.

Ju said that if Bitcoin can absorb upwards of $1 trillion in realized cap, another parabolic rally remains possible. In practical terms, though, this would require the cryptocurrency to move beyond a retail-led ETF trade and become an established macro allocation for funds, corporations, institutions, and possibly even sovereign entities.

He noted that this shift is still early and hasn’t been invalidated yet.

Gold Comparisons: The Size of the Opportunity? The comparison with gold remains central to Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis. The current market cap of the precious metal, according to popular estimates, is $29 trillion, although keep in mind that this figure can vary depending on the assumed above-ground supply.

By contrast, Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.25 trillion, at the time of this writing.

This gap remains the reason some analysts still see significant room for Bitcoin to grow as institutional adoption expands. Of course, it also highlights the challenge – every new cycle will likely require considerably larger pools of capital than the last.

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PANews July 4 news, according to Bitcoin News, the latest data from the U.S. Federal Reserve shows that seasonally adjusted broad money supply (M2) rose to $23.05 trillion in May, breaking the $23 trillion mark for the first time and hitting a record high. M2 increased from $22.80 trillion in April to $23.05 trillion that month, a single-month gain of about $247.8 billion; it has risen for five consecutive months since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative expansion of roughly $623 billion, indicating a continued recovery of liquidity in the U.S. financial system.

This change has sparked market debate over the direction of monetary policy. Some critics argue that the Fed may be releasing liquidity again through a form of “stealth easing”; but mainstream economists note that money supply typically grows naturally with the size of the economy, and part of the current upturn also reflects a mean reversion after the previous contraction.

At the asset level, the market is once again focusing on the “currency devaluation trade” logic. Because Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins, it is viewed by some investors as a hedge against fiat expansion, and this narrative has been reinforced again as M2 hits new highs. At the same time, global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, further strengthening market demand for “fiat credit hedge assets.” Data shows that the multi-year gold purchasing trend among central banks is still ongoing.

The next M2 data release is scheduled for late July. The market will watch whether liquidity expansion continues and whether the Fed’s policy path will shift toward a looser cycle.

The technical outlook for Bitcoin has drawn renewed attention, with prominent analyst John Bollinger signaling a possible shift in trend for the BTC/USD pair. Bollinger, the creator of the widely used Bollinger Bands indicator, noted that a key W-shaped reversal pattern is taking shape in Bitcoin’s price. He suggests that if this pattern completes, it could mark the end of the downtrend that has persisted since October 2025.

W formation stands out in technical analysisFamed for developing the Bollinger Bands, John Bollinger underscored in a post on X that although Bitcoin has recently failed to maintain several bullish signals, strengthening the case for the prevailing downtrend, its current price structure aligns with a W reversal pattern resembling a double bottom.

John Bollinger observed that previous bullish structures in Bitcoin have broken down, reflecting the strength of the bear trend, yet he indicated the emerging W formation could signal a trend reversal.

Typically, the W pattern is validated after two bottom formations and a subsequent breakout above an intermediate resistance level. Bollinger’s shared chart illustrates that Bitcoin’s daily price movements are tracking along the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. He further explained that the pattern is fractal in nature, observing similar smaller-scale top and bottom formations within the same structure, and identified the W pattern on the weekly chart as well.

Bollinger has maintained an optimistic view on Bitcoin in recent months. Early in May, he disclosed that he had opened a new long position in a Bitcoin investment vehicle.

Market signals and expectations divergeSeveral price indicators have begun to emit signals not seen since the last bear market in 2022. However, a broad segment of market participants believes that the ultimate market bottom has yet to be formed on a macro scale. According to this view, a definitive bottom may not emerge until the third quarter or later.

ETF inflows and the $60,000 support area under watchOn-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. from CryptoQuant emphasized the importance of renewed interest from institutional buyers. Last Friday, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs registered their first net inflow in ten days, interpreted as an early sign that selling pressure on the institutional side could be abating.

Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin is now in the late stages of its bear cycle but noted that the ETF sector has shown an initial indication that outflows are slowing. The net inflow reached $220 million. While not a huge amount in absolute terms, this was seen as a supportive factor for Bitcoin’s price direction.

Daan Crypto Trades remarked that although the $220 million inflow is not overwhelmingly large, it could provide crucial support, adding that Bitcoin’s resilience around the $60,000 level, despite significant outflows, signals a strong absorption phase.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the significance of the $60,000 mark. According to him, if Bitcoin posts a stronger reaction in the coming week, this level could become a major support area where substantial selling is being absorbed. The simultaneous rebound in institutional demand and the emergence of the W pattern has led investors to focus closely on these levels in the short term.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Why Did Draper Deny Moving Bitcoin? Billionaire investor and longtime Bitcoin bull Tim Draper denied moving his Bitcoin after blockchain analysts linked him to a large transfer of BTC to Coinbase Prime.

“Haven’t touched my BTC,” Draper said Friday, adding that he still expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 within one year.

The denial followed a report from blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, which said a wallet “possibly linked” to Draper had transferred 1,000 Bitcoin, worth about $62 million, to Coinbase Prime. The claim was based on data from Arkham, which labels the wallet as “Tim Draper?” through its AI-powered entity prediction feature.

The case shows how quickly large blockchain movements can affect market narratives, especially when a well-known investor is attached to the wallet. It also shows the limits of on-chain attribution. A blockchain transfer can be verified, but wallet ownership often depends on labels, historical patterns, exchange interactions, and probability-based analysis rather than direct confirmation from the person involved.

What Does The Wallet Attribution Issue Show? Arkham’s label used a question mark, reflecting a lower-confidence attribution rather than a confirmed identity. That distinction matters because investor behavior can be misread when analytics tools attach a public figure or institution to a wallet that has not been definitively verified.

The wallet involved in the transfer has interacted with Coinbase Prime several times over the past year. Its history includes a 1,000 Bitcoin transfer from Coinbase Prime on July 9, 2025, when BTC traded around $115,880 per coin. Those connections may support an analytics-based attribution, but they do not prove that Draper controlled the wallet or approved the latest movement.

For the market, the difference is important. A confirmed transfer by Draper could be read as a change in posture from one of Bitcoin’s most visible early backers. An uncertain wallet label creates a weaker conclusion: a large holder moved coins to an institutional custody or trading venue, but the identity and intent remain unconfirmed.

That gap is central to blockchain analytics. Public ledgers make transfers transparent, but transparency does not automatically produce certainty. Exchange deposit addresses, custody structures, institutional accounts, and delegated asset management can make ownership harder to establish from the outside.

Investor Takeaway Large wallet movements can influence sentiment, but attribution risk is high when labels are probability-based. Investors should separate confirmed transaction data from unverified claims about who controls a wallet or why assets moved.

Why Does Draper’s Bitcoin History Matter? Draper remains one of Bitcoin’s best-known early institutional-era supporters. In 2014, he won a U.S. Marshals Service auction for nearly 30,000 Bitcoin seized by U.S. authorities from Silk Road-related holdings.

He paid about $18.7 million for the BTC, equal to roughly $632 per Bitcoin. At the values cited in the source material, those holdings would now be worth about $1.9 billion. That history makes any wallet activity linked to Draper market-sensitive because traders associate him with long-term conviction rather than short-term trading.

The latest denial therefore reduces the immediate significance of the reported transfer. If Draper’s statement is accurate, the movement should not be treated as evidence that he is selling or reducing exposure. It instead becomes a case study in the risk of relying too heavily on wallet labels when interpreting institutional or whale behavior.

Coinbase Prime’s role also complicates the reading. Transfers to institutional platforms can serve several purposes, including custody changes, collateral management, settlement preparation, or trading. Without direct confirmation, a deposit to a prime brokerage venue does not automatically mean a sale is imminent.

How Does This Fit Draper’s $250,000 Forecast? Draper also repeated his long-running view that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 within one year. The target has become closely associated with him, although earlier timelines have not been met.

He has held the $250,000 forecast since at least 2018, initially expecting Bitcoin to reach that level by late 2022 or early 2023. Bitcoin’s highest recorded price cited in the source material was $126,080 on Oct. 6, 2025, while it was trading around $62,530 at publication time.

The gap between Draper’s forecast and current pricing keeps his prediction in the high-conviction bull camp. Other Bitcoin supporters have also argued for much higher long-term levels, with some targets ranging from $500,000 to $1 million. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has said Bitcoin could reach as high as $700,000 if institutional adoption rises significantly. Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has taken the opposite view, repeatedly arguing that the asset lacks intrinsic value and could fall to zero.

Prediction market pricing is more conservative. Polymarket’s Bitcoin price market for 2026 showed traders clustering around the $65,000 to $70,000 range, with bets concentrated near $68,000.

The result is a familiar split in Bitcoin sentiment. High-profile bulls continue to argue that institutional adoption and supply dynamics can drive another major repricing. Market-based expectations, however, remain closer to current levels. Draper’s denial of the reported transfer helps preserve his public long-term stance, but the episode also shows that in a transparent market, even uncertain wallet labels can quickly become part of the trading narrative.

PANews July 4 news – David Bailey, Chairman of Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto and Chairman of Bitcoin Magazine, stated that the failure of the long-contested “BIP-110” incident is, in terms of outcome, “extremely bullish” for Bitcoin, and believes it further validates the network’s resistance to attacks and splits.

David Bailey said the incident is regarded as a multi-year “governance-layer conflict attempt,” involving multiple battles such as mining pool competition, client fork proposals, UASF (User Activated Soft Fork) mobilization, disputes over node consensus manipulation, and large-scale information warfare across social media and developer communities. Even under a highly complex coordination and communication environment, the relevant camp still failed to gain significant hashrate support, accounting for “not even 1%,” showing that miners and economic participants did not deviate from mainstream social consensus.

David Bailey stated that this process validated the core feature of Bitcoin’s governance structure: final consensus is jointly formed by users, miners, developers, and industry participants, rather than dominated by a single group. At the same time, he emphasized that historically similar events (such as BIP148) have already proven that miners find it difficult to break away from social consensus, and this incident further strengthens that conclusion. However, he also pointed out that the incident exposed information coordination fragility within Bitcoin’s core development collaboration layer, which currently relies excessively on social media and public communication mechanisms, making it susceptible to information manipulation and the “amplification effect of AI-generated content,” thus significantly raising community collaboration costs.

David Bailey also mentioned that the controversy consumed a large amount of community time and attention resources, and called on the industry to participate more actively in the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) governance process to avoid being stuck in inefficient debates for prolonged periods. The Bitcoin network demonstrated strong resistance to splits in this incident, and he emphasized that “technical rationality will ultimately prevail.”

Iran just turned one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints into a geopolitical loyalty program. And it takes Bitcoin.

Iran’s ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, announced during the World Peace Forum in Beijing on July 4 that China and other allied nations will receive reduced transit fees for navigating the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway has become what Tehran now classifies as a matter of “national security” following a four-month conflict involving the United States and Israel.

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The toll booth at the center of global trade Tehran is reportedly considering imposing tolls on vessels traversing the strait, with fees rumored to reach up to $2 million per ship. Iran has signaled it will accept payments in Bitcoin and USDT, the Tether stablecoin. The fee reductions for China and allied nations function as a tiered pricing system. Iran plans to collaborate with Oman to ensure smooth transit operations under the new arrangement.

Why crypto fits Iran’s playbook Iran has operated under heavy US and international sanctions for years, which severely restrict its access to the traditional banking system. Bitcoin and USDT allow value transfer without relying on intermediary banks that might freeze or flag transactions. Stablecoins like USDT offer dollar-equivalent value without actually touching the US banking system.

Earlier in 2026, Tehran allowed selective transit of Chinese vessels through the strait during a period of broader blockades, illustrating the deepening bilateral relationship between the two countries. Iran has also been mining Bitcoin domestically for years, using its subsidized energy to power mining operations.

What this means for crypto investors No significant price movements in either Bitcoin or USDT were reported in direct response to the announcement.

The risk side is equally important. US regulators and Treasury officials have been cracking down on sanctions evasion through crypto. Tether, which has previously cooperated with law enforcement to freeze wallets, could find itself in an uncomfortable position between compliance and its largest growth markets.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

XRP has made its way into Australia’s financial parliamentary record. In the Australian Parliament’s Register of Members’ Interests, Labor MP Sally Sitou indicated her only cryptocurrency holding is XRP with local exchange CoinSpot.

Australian MP Lists XRP The filing identifies the digital currency as “Cryptocurrency (Ripple).” No Bitcoin and no Ether. Only XRP, included in the financial records of one of the world’s 15 largest economies.

The filing also shows that Sitou has physical gold through ABC Bullion and holds a wide-ranging portfolio of Australian and U.S. equities like the Commonwealth Bank, BHP, Meta Platforms and Costco. XRP is currently the sole listed digital asset.

Australian MP XRP Filing This disclosure sits inside a broader shift in how Australia treats crypto. The country’s Digital Assets Framework Bill Passed Parliament in April 2026, requiring exchanges and tokenized custody providers to obtain an Australian Financial Services License. Ripple is already pursuing that license, an early sign of its intent to entrench itself in the country’s regulated market.

Australia’s approach to regulation has changed significantly. In under a year, the nation moved from years of legislative silence to a well-organized licensing system for crypto firms.

The shift provides Ripple, the company behind XRP, an obligation as well as an opportunity. The moved has drawn wide attention on X, citing a continuation in adoption.

🚨🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA MAKES XRP OFFICIAL 🇦🇺🚨

Australia has officially disclosed XRP holdings in a Member of Parliament’s Register of Interests.

XRP is now publicly listed as part of a lawmaker’s financial assets in one of the world’s largest economies.

Adoption continues. 👀 pic.twitter.com/gJmALhkHYE

— John Squire 🇺🇸 (@TheCryptoSquire) July 4, 2026

White House Official’s XRP Filing & XRP’s Track Record Sitou’s revelation was not the only one capturing attention. Ian Kelley, who serves as the War Room Director at the White House and is also a Special Assistant to the President, reported XRP in a public financial filing after his appointment in January 2025.

His filing places the holding in a Coinbase wallet, valued between $1,001 and $15,000. Unlike Sitou, Kelley holds a broader crypto portfolio, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Chainlink, and Cardano all appear alongside XRP.

Each asset in Kelley’s portfolio falls within the same $1,001 to $15,000 disclosure range. Neither filing reveals the exact number of tokens held. But both put XRP on the record in two separate governments on two separate continents.

Political financial disclosures carry weight. They are sworn documents. When a lawmaker or White House official lists an asset, it signals more than personal preference, it normalizes that asset within the official financial order.

For XRP, appearing in two such filings in a single week adds to a growing pattern of political legitimacy. The company’s pursuit of an Australian Financial Services License shows it is tracking the regulatory door as it opens.

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