In the middle of a French bond crisis, a Japanese fund sold every French government bond it owned. On Thursday, Japan publishes the first data showing whether it was alone.
In the 2024 yen shock, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fell as much as 20%, which suggests the stakes this week may extend well beyond Paris.
France Is Paying Its Highest Borrowing Costs Since 2002Shinji Kunibe runs the global bond team at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. His funds sold all their French government bonds. The money went into German bonds and short-term Japanese debt. The size was not disclosed.
His worry was France’s finances. Paris owes about 119% of its yearly economic output. Its 10-year borrowing rate touched 4.96% last week, the highest since 2002.
“When the bid from Japan disappears, the largest European sovereign market has to find new buyers at the same time its own government is arguing over a deficit plan that markets already distrust,” said Stern Drew, a commodities expert.
According to Drew, Japan may have broken the French bond market.
Yet France has not run out of buyers. It sold about €12 billion of long-term bonds on October 1. Bids came in at roughly twice that, according to France’s debt office.
What Japan’s Thursday Numbers Will RevealJapan’s Ministry of Finance releases weekly trading data at 8:50 a.m. Tokyo time on October 8, per its calendar. It tracks the country’s biggest banks, insurers, and funds.
The last report ended September 26, days before Kunibe’s sale. It already showed selling. Japanese investors dumped a net ¥684.5 billion ($4.3 billion) of foreign bonds that week, and ¥1.9 trillion ($12 billion) the week before, ministry data show.
Japanese investors’ weekly net trades in foreign bonds. Source: Japan Ministry of Finance. Chart: BeInCryptoThere is a catch. The report never names France. It counts every foreign bond as one pile.
Why Bitcoin Traders Are Watching JapanFor years, investors borrowed cheap yen to buy higher-paying assets abroad. This is the yen carry trade. When the yen jumps, those loans get costlier and holders are forced to sell.
The Bank for International Settlements put those trades at about $250 billion before the August 2024 crash.
But Bitcoin has survived a yen shock since. In September, the yen strengthened 3.7% in days, while Bitcoin held above $79,000, BeInCrypto reported at the time.
On Sunday, Bitcoin traded at $85,363, up 0.46% in 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto’s Bitcoin price data.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoStern Drew says Japan has already broken the French bond market. On Thursday, Japan’s own numbers get their say.
TLDR: Bitcoin’s Sunday moves have often reversed on Monday over the past month, according to Ali Charts. A TD Sequential sell signal on Bitcoin’s four-hour chart followed four past corrections each time. Ethereum’s last two TD Sequential sell signals were followed by declines of 5.40% and 3.31%. Solana’s last three comparable signals preceded corrections of 2.44%, 5.76%, and 5.30%. Sunday pump Monday dump is back in focus as Bitcoin climbed more than 1% on October 4. Over the past month, the cryptocurrency’s Sunday moves have often reversed at the start of the week.
A TD Sequential sell signal has also appeared on the four-hour charts of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. In earlier cases, similar signals were followed by corrections. Together, these readings point to a possible pullback when markets open on Monday.
Sunday Pump Monday Dump Pattern Draws Attention Market analyst Ali Charts raised the topic in a six-part thread on X. The opening post framed the idea as Sunday pump equals Monday dump.
SUNDAY PUMP = MONDAY DUMP
1/6 🧵👇
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 4, 2026
In the second post, the analyst said Bitcoin’s Sunday moves have often reversed on Monday over the past month. Sunday rallies were followed by pullbacks. Sunday declines, on the other hand, were followed by rebounds. The same reversal appeared in both directions, according to the analyst.
Bitcoin was up more than 1% on Sunday as of time of publication trading at $85,845. As a result, the analyst said the pattern is back in focus. The first post had recorded 3,604 views at that point. The follow-up posts appeared minutes after the first one.
TD Sequential Flashes Sell Signal on Bitcoin The third post added a technical warning to the weekly pattern. According to Ali Charts, the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a sell signal on Bitcoin’s four-hour chart. The signal appeared while Bitcoin traded higher on the day.
The analyst noted that each of the last four similar signals was followed by a price correction. Ali Charts did not list the size of those four corrections. Based on that record, the thread pointed to another Monday dump.
Therefore, the sell signal and the Sunday pump Monday dump pattern lead to the same outcome. Both readings suggest a pullback at the start of the week. The next posts extend the signal to other major assets.
Ethereum and Solana Show Matching Signals The fourth post covered Ethereum. The asset shows the same TD Sequential sell signal on its four-hour chart. Its last two signals were followed by declines of 5.40% and 3.31%, respectively. The two earlier declines serve as the reference points for Ethereum.
Solana was addressed in the fifth post. It has flashed a four-hour TD Sequential sell signal as well. Its last three comparable signals preceded corrections of 2.44%, 5.76%, and 5.30%. The analyst used these readings as a historical reference for the current setup.
The final post combined all the data points. It cited a Sunday pump, a recent run of Monday dumps, and sell signals across BTC, ETH, and SOL.
Ali Charts said these factors point to a possible pullback. The Sunday pump Monday dump setup, therefore, rests on both calendar behavior and chart signals. The thread ended with that post, and no further posts followed.
A recurring pattern in the cryptocurrency market has resurfaced, as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana flashed technical warnings ahead of the new trading week. Over the last month, sharp price moves recorded on Sundays have often reversed at the start of Monday, drawing renewed attention from traders and analysts.
Sunday rallies prompt caution among tradersMarket analyst Ali Charts, who frequently shares insights on X, raised the issue on October 4 with a detailed thread tracking the so-called “Sunday pump, Monday dump” phenomenon. His analysis suggested that Bitcoin’s Sunday gains, including a climb of more than 1% on October 4, have a recent history of fading as the new week begins. Conversely, Sunday declines have typically resulted in Monday rebounds.
Ali Charts highlighted that this Sunday-to-Monday reversal pattern has emerged in both directions over the past month, affecting trader sentiment ahead of weekly openings. The analyst’s initial post attracted thousands of views within minutes, demonstrating the heightened interest in these recurring market dynamics.
Bitcoin’s Sunday moves have repeatedly reversed on Monday in the past month, with rallies giving way to pullbacks and declines following with rebounds.
TD Sequential indicator flashes sell on BTC, ETH, SOLIn his thread, Ali Charts pointed to a fresh TD Sequential sell signal on Bitcoin’s four-hour chart. The TD Sequential is a technical analysis tool designed to identify potential price reversals after extended trends. According to the analyst, each of the last four comparable sell signals for Bitcoin corresponded with a subsequent correction, although the precise magnitude of these corrections was not specified.
The recent appearance of both a Sunday rally and a TD Sequential sell signal aligns with historical data suggesting an increased likelihood of a Monday downturn for Bitcoin.
Ethereum has mirrored this technical pattern. The most recent TD Sequential sell signals on its four-hour chart were followed by declines of 5.40% and 3.31%. Similarly, Solana’s last three such sell signals led to corrections of 2.44%, 5.76%, and 5.30% respectively. These observed drops serve as the basis for the current cautious outlook.
Ali Charts combined these technical findings, noting that the convergence of Sunday price rallies and sequential sell signals across leading cryptocurrencies increases the probability of a broad pullback at the start of the new week.
Combined Sunday rallies and multiple TD Sequential sell signals across BTC, ETH, and SOL point to a heightened risk of a Monday pullback.
Mini dictionary: TD Sequential, a technical indicator used by traders to spot possible trend exhaustion and reversal points, often signaling potential pullbacks after sustained uptrends or downtrends.
AssetRecent TD Sequential signalsPrice movement after signalBitcoin4 signalsAll followed by correctionsEthereum2 signals-5.40%, -3.31%Solana3 signals-2.44%, -5.76%, -5.30%The convergence of calendar-based market behavior and technical signals has reinforced trader expectations for a possible reversal. The increased focus on these indicators highlights the shifting dynamics in the market as participants monitor for renewed volatility at the start of the trading week.
Bitcoin (BTC) enters a historically strong month facing four pressures. Thin liquidity, weaker ETF demand, the Iran war, and a Mt. Gox deadline weigh on it.
The largest cryptocurrency has closed higher in 10 of the last 13 Octobers, with a median gain of 12.73%, Coinglass data shows. So far this month, BTC is up 1.98%
Bitcoin (BTC) Monthly Price Returns. Source: CoinglassStablecoin Supply Is Refilling But SlowlyAnalyst Darkfost said too little liquidity is reaching the crypto market. The stablecoin market cap has lost $14 billion since May, pointing to sizable outflows.
Supply has recovered $4 billion since September, lifting the total to about $270 billion. Still, Darkfost called the rebound too timid to push Bitcoin to new highs.
“Even though the trend now appears to be reversing, it remains too timid, and more will be needed to push Bitcoin toward new highs,” he wrote.
Stablecoin Market Cap. Source: X/DarkfostLarge holders are adding capital, though cautiously. Wallets sending over $1 million in stablecoins to Binance lifted their 30-day inflows to $30.5 billion. A little over a month earlier, the figure stood at $21.7 billion.
That marks a rise of over 40%. However, the same group sent more than $61 billion at its October 2025 peak, nearly double the current level.
“This behavior is probably torn between Bitcoin’s seasonality, with a highly anticipated October, and an environment marked by conflict, inflation, and the relentless rise in bond yields,” the analyst added.
ETF Buyers Have Stepped BackInstitutional demand has cooled as well. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $998.95 million on September 21, their largest daily inflow in almost a year.
Inflows then shrank for 5 straight sessions, slipping to $31.07 million by September 28. On September 30, the funds posted $148.69 million in net outflows, ending a 9-day inflow streak, BeInCrypto reported.
Flows returned to positive territory on October 1, with $102.67 million in net inflows, SoSoValue data shows. However, the funds took in only $51.25 million across the 4 sessions from September 28 to October 1. In the prior week, they drew $2.39 billion.
Trading activity has thinned too. Daily value traded across the 12 funds fell from $4.57 billion on September 21 to $1.97 billion on October 1.
Iran War Headlines Whip Bitcoin Both WaysThe conflict Darkfost flagged has already moved Bitcoin’s price. On October 2, BTC rallied toward $87,000 before a tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz erased the gain.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto MarketsOil prices barely moved on the news, while crypto markets reacted sharply. That strike marked the sixth tanker attack in a week. Meanwhile, Washington has sent 2 more Patriot missile batteries to protect Saudi and Qatari energy sites, Axios reported. The US is also sending more warships and troops ahead of a possible return to war.
Meanwhile, Iran said the strait stays closed until the US meets 7 conditions from a June deal. Because Bitcoin trades around the clock, it absorbs weekend war news before stocks and oil reopen.
The pressure could build later in the month. US officials told The Wall Street Journal that Trump expects to resume bombing Iran after the November 3 midterms.
Peace signals have moved Bitcoin the other way. It climbed past $81,000 when Trump weighed ending the war. With Hormuz still shut, each new strike or ceasefire signal could swing BTC in either direction.
Mt. Gox Faces Its October 31 DeadlineThe final pressure lands at month-end. Mt. Gox’s labeled wallets held 34,387.51 BTC, worth $2.88 billion, as of the latest data from Arkham.
Mt. Gox Bitcoin Holdings, Source: ArkhamUnder the current court-approved deadline, the trustee must finish creditor repayments by October 31. Last year, it announced the extension on October 27, 2025, just 4 days before the cutoff.
That pattern leaves 2 outcomes. Another extension would keep the coins off the market, while distributions could hand creditors BTC they may sell.
Seasonality has also slipped before. Bitcoin fell 3.69% in October 2025, its first losing October since 2018. ETF flows and stablecoin supply will show whether fresh capital arrives before the Mt. Gox decision.
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The market structure is significantly different today, said one of the analysts we talked to.
Bitcoin enters the final quarter of the year after a powerful recovery in the third quarter, but analysts warn against expecting another straight-line rally. Instead, they pointed to some key factors that could impact BTC and the overall market in the following three months.
Some of them include the Federal Reserve, Treasury-market liquidity, ETF flows, geopolitics, and BTC’s ability to clear $87,500, which remains its most significant obstacle on the path forward.
Q3 May Be Hard to Repeat Although Q3 began with another leg down to under $58,000, which became BTC’s lowest price tag in a year and a half, the subsequent three months were a lot more positive. The cryptocurrency rebounded immediately and broke out in mid-August to over $80,000. Its rise continued and managed to close the quarter with a massive 43% surge.
Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst, described the three-month period as both a recovery phase and a breakout milestone. He argued that the most important catalyst arrived from the bond market after the US Treasury increased the size of its long-end bond buyback operations in August.
The asset indeed jumped by 7% on August 19 and rocketed by over 20% in the following several days. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows immediately turned positive and even flipped into the green on a year-to-date basis. Meanwhile, relatively subdued perpetual funding suggested the rally was driven more by spot demand than excessive leverage, Kalchev added.
Nevertheless, the analyst cautioned against assuming Q4 will simply extend Q3’s pace. Although the cryptocurrency has finished Q4 higher in nine of the past 15 years, the median gains are only around 9%, while the much larger average has been distorted by spectacular years such as 2013 and 2017.
Alex Kozenko, CMO at WhiteBIT, issued a similar warning:
You may also like: Is Bitcoin’s $85K Consolidation the Calm Before the Storm Amid Rising Middle East Tensions? 4 Cryptocurrencies to Watch This Week: BTC, HYPE, ZEC, and KAS Face Crucial Tests Citi Turns More Bullish on Bitcoin and Strategy: Here Are the New Targets “Today, the market structure is different: institutional participation has become more prominent, and flows through regulated investment products have become yet another source of influence on market dynamics. Over the next three months, I would primarily focus on liquidity, institutional activity, and the overall macroeconomic environment.”
Fed and $87.5K Although the overall market situation changed slightly after the weaker-than-expected US jobs report from Friday, Lacie Zhang, Research Analyst at Bitget Wallet, told CryptoPotato that she still believes the Fed will hike rates again by 25 basis points on October 28. This would put the target range at 4.00%-4.25% after the September increase, which was the first in over three years.
Kalchev also highlighted the Fed as the biggest Q4 variable, although the latest softer core PCE reading, alongside the aforementioned jobs report, reduced some of the immediate pressure for additional tightening. Geopolitical developments, though, could complicate the picture further, especially if energy prices keep feeding inflation.
According to Zhang, $87,500 remains the most crucial obstacle in BTC’s path to a broader recovery. A break above it could increase the likelihood of a short squeeze. In contrast, she identified the $82,000-$82,500 support range as the key downside zone, and losing it could accelerate a move below $80,000.
BTC, HYPE, ZEC, and KAS are set to begin the new week with very different setups, but all four are approaching important technical or fundamental milestones.
Bitcoin entered its most successful month with a bang, surging past $87,000 on Friday after the release of the weak US jobs report. Institutional demand has improved significantly over the past few months.
Meanwhile, Hyperliquid, Zcash, and Kaspa each have important protocol or market catalysts in play. Here are the key levels and developments to watch.
BTC: This Level Remains Key Softer US inflation data, strong institutional demand, and the weaker-than-expected jobs report on Friday helped BTC recover some of the recent losses, with the asset challenging the key $87,000 resistance once again at the end of the business week.
The latest PCE data showed core inflation rising 0.2% month-over-month and around 3.0% annually, both of which were below expectations. That, alongside the relatively small number of only 29,000 added jobs in September, reduced some concerns about the need for additional monetary tightening from the US Federal Reserve.
The setup, though, is not entirely bullish. Glassnode recently cited data showing relatively limited profit-taking compared with previous market tops, but selling by long-term holders has recently increased. Trading volumes remain comparatively weak, suggesting BTC may need stronger buyer participation before confirming another major leg up.
The $87,000-$87,500 resistance remains the first notable obstacle in bitcoin’s path, as a decisive break above it could open the door toward the next big selling zone at around $95,000.
Hyperliquid’s Case Hyperliquid’s native token has been among the strongest market performers lately, reaching consecutive all-time highs as protocol activity and ecosystem development continue to expand. One of those was the introduction of manual borrowing through HyperCore. Since September 18, users have been able to use HYPE and BTC as collateral to borrow USDC or USDT, with borrowing volume reaching almost $270 million on the first day.
You may also like: Citi Turns More Bullish on Bitcoin and Strategy: Here Are the New Targets Bitcoin Crashes Below $84K as Crypto Liquidations Near $600M Bitcoin Price Reacts Immediately to Weaker-Than-Expected US Jobs Report The project has also introduced trailing-stop orders for perpetual markets, while its tokenomics continue to generate persistent buy-side pressure. 99% of platform fees are directed toward the Assistance Fund to repurchase HYPE from the open market.
From a technical perspective, the next important question is whether the $90-$92 region can turn into sustained support. If it does, the bullish structure remains intact. In contrast, $85 could serve as the first major support in case of a pullback.
Zcash: Privacy Meets Network Upgrade When we talk about massive price gainers, it’s difficult to leave ZEC out of the conversation. It has been frequently posting major gains, up by over 1,000% in the past year or so, and recently topped $1,600 for the first time in a decade.
The biggest development is the network’s seventh major upgrade, which received overwhelming support from voters and is scheduled to activate on November 5. It will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25, effectively tripling the rate of block production. Participants also voted to retain Zcash’s existing halving structure, which resembles Bitcoin’s issuance model.
Another notable metric is the amount of ZEC held in shielded pools, as recent updates on the matter indicated that 29% of the existing supply is currently shielded. Another 4 million tokens have moved into the newer Ironwood pool.
Kaspa: Adoption Being Tested Kaspa’s recent developments have focused more heavily on expanding what developers can actually build on the network, such as the Tokata hard fork. It introduced UTXOs, covenants, transaction introspection, and native zero-knowledge verification, pushing the project beyond its original role as a high-throughput proof-of-work payments network.
Released in September, Silverscript 1.0 added higher-level tools for building covenant logic, including vaults, escrow, mechanisms, and time locks. The .k name service also launched during the same month, allowing Kaspa addresses to be replaced by readable names, with several thousand registrations recorded within the first few days.
In terms of price movements, KAS has soared by roughly 50% in the past month, bringing the psychological $0.50 level back into focus. The question now is whether the network usage can catch up with the technological development.
The International Monetary Fund approved the immediate disbursement of about $138 million to El Salvador under the country’s $1.4 billion financing program, despite some performance criteria being missed.
The IMF’s Executive Board completed the second and third reviews under El Salvador’s 40-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement on Thursday, it said in a press release.
While certain performance criteria were not met, including on the Bitcoin accumulation front, the IMF granted waivers “based on strong corrective measures and renewed commitments.”
The agency noted that El Salvador has made progress in financial sector reforms, fiscal transparency, AML/CFT reforms and the transfer of majority ownership and control of the government Chivo Bitcoin wallet to a private operator.
“Efforts will continue to reduce the state’s involvement in Bitcoin-related activities, strengthen crypto‑asset regulation and governance, and enhance transparency regarding public-sector crypto‑asset holdings,” the IMF said, adding: “No further Bitcoin accumulation is envisaged beyond the documented donations.”
Cointelegraph reported on Sept. 4 that El Salvador used no public resources to accumulate Bitcoin after the first review of its IMF financing program in June 2025, according to the lender.
The IMF said documents supplied by Salvadoran authorities verified that the accumulation came from private donations. According to the lender, the increase in El Salvador’s holdings therefore did not reflect additional Bitcoin purchases financed with government resources.
The IMF also said majority ownership and operational control of the Chivo wallet had been transferred to a private operator, while the government retained a minority stake and custodial responsibilities.
The explanation addressed how El Salvador’s holdings grew after the first review, when the country said in November 2025 that it had acquired 1,090 BTC worth $100 million, renewing questions about compliance with its $1.4 billion IMF program.
Magazine: Exchanges reporting crypto gains to IRS becomes tax nightmare
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Pump.fun (PUMP) coin price rose 15% to $0.006369 on October 4 as whale accumulation drew attention to the token. It has a market capitalization of about $2.95 billion and ranked 35th in the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies.
Liquidations totaled $390,000 over the same period, with short positions accounting for most losses as the token advanced. The rally outpaced the wider cryptocurrency market, which gained 0.77% over the same period.
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization consequently climbed to approximately $2.9 trillion during the broader recovery.
Bitcoin price held above $85,000, while Ethereum climbed to $2,699 and XRP reached $1.50 during the wider market recovery. Steady institutional accumulation and relatively low leverage supported the broader advance, according to the supplied market overview.
Whales Are Accumulating PUMP as Two Wallets Move $3.58M The PUMP token drew fresh attention after whale wallet “netherlol” purchased 383.34 million tokens worth approximately $2.4 million. Lookonchain said the transaction marked the wallet’s first purchase in more than a year.
🚨WHALES ARE ACCUMULATING PUMP!
netherlol bought 383.34 million solana:pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn, about $2.4 million, after more than a year on the sidelines, per @lookonchain.
A new wallet also pulled 189.22 million solana:pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn, about $1.18 million, off MEXC.
— Crypto Banter (@crypto_banter) October 4, 2026
A separate, newly created wallet, identified as GnZqfY, withdrew 189.22 million PUMP tokens from MEXC. The transfer was valued at $1.18 million and occurred seven hours before Lookonchain’s update. Together, the transactions involved 572.56 million tokens worth roughly $3.58 million.
PUMP reportedly climbed 20% over 24 hours, reaching a fresh local high following the previous day’s long position liquidations. The rebound accompanied renewed activity from large holders, although the transactions do not establish what drove the rally.
Lookonchain did not publicly identify a reason for netherlol’s return. The MEXC withdrawal also does not independently confirm a new purchase.
PUMP Open Interest Surges to $669.62 Million as Volume Rises The Pump.fun PUMP derivatives market recorded rising activity, with trading volume increasing 3.64% to $1.08 billion, according to supplied data. Open interest climbed 25.77% to $669.62 million, substantially outpacing the increase in turnover.
Source: Coinglass data The higher open interest reflects higher outstanding derivatives positions as compared to the last reading. However, these figures alone do not establish whether traders favor bullish or bearish positions. The snapshot provided no options market figures.
PUMP Coin Surges as $0.007 Target Comes Into Focus The PUMP coin surged to $0.006365, extending its recovery within a rising channel on the four-hour timeframe.
The relative strength index registered 65.77. It remained below the conventional 70 threshold associated with overbought conditions,
The MACD line stood at 0.000241, above the signal line’s reading of 0.000189. Its histogram measured 0.000052 and had turned positive following the recent decline.
PUMP/USDT 4-hour chart: TradingView Successive candles then moved higher within the ascending channel, recovering the horizontal level around $0.006.
The next resistance is at $0.007, which is around 9.98% higher than the price shown, providing the second conditional target. To reach it, PUMP coin price would need to continue to keep the breakout and not drop below the first resistance.
On the other hand, rejection at $0.00655 could lead to a retest of the $0.006 support zone. If that level is broken and the rise channel is broken down, this would weaken the recovery structure. If that’s the case, then it might open up the recent bounce region around $0.0055.
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Zooming out, Bitcoin’s technical setup looks like a textbook pre-breakout setup.
For more than five weeks, BTC has been consolidating around $85k, while weekly closes continue to form higher highs. The latest weekly wick reached $87k, which means buyers are still defending the higher ground.
If this structure holds, Bitcoin could follow its October seasonality, which has averaged an 18% ROI, potentially pushing the price to $98k by month-end.
However, the coming week could put this bullish setup through its paces. ISM Services PMI, ADP Employment data, and FOMC minutes were on the calendar, alongside jobless claims and Michigan’s inflation expectations. ADP was scheduled for the 6th of October, while one-year inflation expectations had previously jumped to 4.6%.
Source: Kobeissi Letter In essence, Bitcoin is set to enter another critical macro-heavy week, with its technical setup suggesting the potential for a breakout or breakdown. The timing, however, tilts the momentum to one side.
Can Bitcoin’s breakout survive rising yields? As per the chart above, U.S. 30-year mortgage rates have jumped to 7.6%. This means that the bond market faces increased pressure, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields also climbing to multi-month highs. Why is it important? Because the market is clearly expecting higher inflation. Therefore, higher yields are an obstacle for Bitcoin, as a rising interest rate environment usually decreases demand for risk assets.
In this context, the upcoming macro week could be crucial for Bitcoin [BTC], especially with the Coinbase Premium Index showing early signs of recovery, which would indicate that the U.S. spot demand is returning. The critical question, however, is whether this re-emerging U.S. demand will become a genuine BTC catalyst or will it be a short-lived bounce preceding another bearish phase.
Bitcoin’s U.S. demand faces a key macro test Based on a key on-chain signal, it appears that investor patience is starting to run out.
According to CoinGlass, the closest BTC whale orders are a $13.25 million bid at $82,500 and a $15.52 million ask at $84,799.90, which means that whales are adding liquidity to both sides, with the $84.8k asking price forming an immediate resistance area. On the other hand, the Liquidation Heatmap suggests that long liquidations massively overshadow shorts, so if the situation at the top begins to change, BTC may experience a significant unwinding.
It’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s current state leaves scope for a bear move. Rate FUD is already gaining ground as Treasury yields rise and the upcoming macro week may add further pressure. Within this scenario, the whale orders appear less like a fluke and more as early positioning ahead of higher volatility.
Source: X Against this backdrop, the recent recovery in Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index looks suspicious so far.
As whale orders accumulate, technical volatility grows, and Treasury yields climb, renewed U.S. demand may well turn out to be a fakeout before the next leg down. This leaves Bitcoin’s structure near $85k increasingly bearish, with the upcoming macro week posing a clear risk of further downside pressure.
Final Summary U.S. demand is picking up, but rising yields could keep pressure on Bitcoin. BTC’s $85k setup remains weak, with the risk of a deeper pullback.
Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, potentially signaling additional BTC purchases.
Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates on the company’s Bitcoin tracker, noting, “More orange than ever.” Following past patterns, the orange dots represent Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase records, and this move likely signals the firm will increase its BTC holdings. Strategy typically discloses changes to its Bitcoin position the day after such announcements.
15 minutes ago
Bitcoin OGs Move First Funds in 13 Years: 1,346 $BTC ($115M) Now Worth 479x Initial Investment
Two Bitcoin OGs who bought 1,346 $BTC($115M now) 13 years ago have moved 0.0005 $BTC ($43) after years of dormancy as a test transaction. They bought 1,346 $BTC ($240K at the time) 13 years ago at an average price of $178, and are now sitting on a 479x return.
15 minutes ago
Trump announces formation of Superintelligence Task Force
U.S. President Donald Trump posted that, following the historic White House Superintelligence Agreement, the world’s most prominent tech companies gathered to confirm their accountability to the American people. I am announcing the establishment of the Superintelligence Task Force (SIF), whose mandate is to coordinate relevant work across the federal government and ensure the U.S. maintains its global leadership in the superintelligence field. Many argue that superintelligence is more transformative than the Industrial Revolution and the internet, as it will safeguard the interests of all Americans and improve their daily lives. The Superintelligence Task Force will coordinate communication between the federal government and consumers, public interest groups, religious organizations, critical infrastructure providers, and superintelligence firms. It will be led by Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton, Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chair Andrew Ferguson, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering & Chief Technology Officer Emil Michael, and Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Cooper, and will report to the U.S. President (myself) and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
15 minutes ago
CZ Reveals in Latest Interview: He Was Detained in the Same Prison as SBF, One After the Other
According to a New York Times report, Binance founder CZ (Changpeng Zhao) stated in a recent interview that he was assigned to Lompoc II, a minimum-security prison in California, which later also held FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF). Before reporting to the facility, CZ assembled a team of advisors who taught him the unwritten rules of prison politics. One advisor also communicated with other inmates, who agreed to help CZ adjust to prison life. In August 2024, CZ left Lompoc Prison and was transferred to a halfway house. However, due to issues with his immigration status, he had to spend his final two weeks in a local jail, passing the time in his cell by doing push-ups and sit-ups. On the day of his release, it took just 26 minutes from CZ being discharged from custody to his private plane taking off.
15 minutes ago
A whale withdrew 3,283.56 ETH from OKX, valued at approximately $8.85 million.
On-chain analyst Ai Yi (handle @ai_9684xtpa) has tracked that a whale, suspected of selling ETH at an average price of $2709 about a week ago, has built a new position at an average of $2695. Four hours ago, the whale withdrew 3283.56 ETH worth $8.85 million from OKX, a quantity far exceeding the 1099 ETH it deposited last time.
15 minutes ago
PUMP breaks through $0.0063, hitting a new high since '1011'
According to HTX market data, PUMP has surged past $0.0063, currently trading at $0.006328, notching a new high since "1011", with a 24-hour gain of 14.67%.
The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned 3 people and 2 charities, accusing them of moving $2 million to Hamas through crypto and sham charities.
The charities are Association Baraka and Ensemble C Mieux. The three individuals are reportedly:
Saleem al-Zaq (a Hamas military wing member)
Faouzi Barika and Amel Oualid (France-based fundraisers)
The Justice Department (DOJ) also unsealed charges against al-Zaq and announced 6 arrests.
Charity Appeals in France, Crypto Transfers to GazaTreasury described Saleem al-Zaq as a Gaza-based battalion deputy in Hamas’s armed wing. His network used money services businesses and crypto wallets to move funds to the Al-Qassam Brigades, it said.
Barika and Oualid run the two charities, which claimed to raise aid for civilians in Gaza. Treasury says they passed the money to al-Zaq, who sent it to Hamas.
Treasury did not say how much of the total was moved as crypto. It said Barika and Oualid sent al-Zaq hundreds of thousands of dollars in digital assets. OFAC’s entries list no wallet addresses.
The release also described the scheme in broader terms.
“These designations expose a sophisticated, multi‑year financing architecture that moved more than $2 million to Hamas through deceptive charitable fronts and cryptocurrency channels, demonstrating the organization’s persistent ability to adapt its fundraising mechanisms to evade detection,” the release said.
OFAC previously sanctioned Gaza-based crypto exchange Buy Cash in October 2023.
How the Alleged Funding Network WorkedAccording to US prosecutors and Treasury, the alleged scheme worked roughly like this:
Donations were collected in France. Barika and Oualid allegedly raised money through charities that presented themselves as supporting civilians in Gaza.
The money was pooled through traditional banking. Chainalysis said some of the funds were collected in a French bank account before being moved further.
Al-Zaq allegedly asked for crypto. Prosecutors say he initially received money through Western Union. In December 2021, he allegedly asked a France-based partner to send Bitcoin or other digital currency instead.
The goal was allegedly to make transfers harder to trace. According to the indictment, al-Zaq believed crypto could help hide where the money came from and where it was going.
Funds were converted into crypto and sent onward. Treasury says Barika and Oualid transferred hundreds of thousands of dollars in digital assets to al-Zaq.
The network allegedly changed exchanges when questioned. When one crypto platform asked about the source of funds in May 2023, the partner allegedly moved to another exchange.
Blockchain investigators later traced connections. Chainalysis identified a counterparty linked to al-Zaq’s exchange deposit address. That counterparty also sent funds to exchange addresses that had received money from Hamas-linked wallets previously targeted by Israeli seizure orders.
OFAC just designated a terrorist financing network that moved more than $2 million to Hamas through fake charities and crypto, among other payment rails.
At the center of the fundraising network was Saleem al-Zaq (Alzaq), a battalion deputy in Hamas’ al-Qassam Brigades, who… pic.twitter.com/jQ41ywcy5N
— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) October 2, 2026
Prosecutors say al-Zaq and his associates raised about $1.75 million through December 2025, including at least $626,000 from US donors. Treasury says the wider financing network moved more than $2 million to Hamas.
ZRO and AERO are the other notable gainers over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin’s price has climbed slightly on Sunday morning, jumping past $85,000 after the major volatility experienced on Friday after the release of the US jobs report.
Most larger-cap alts are also slightly in the green over the past day, with ETH challenging the $2,700 resistance, while XRP is up to $1.50.
BTC to Reclaim $85K Bitcoin’s previous business week began with a leg down that drove it from the upper boundary of its trading range at $85,000 to just under the lower at $82,500. The following few days were choppy before the PCE data came out on Wednesday. As it was lower than expected, BTC skyrocketed to $85,600 within minutes. However, the subsequent move was just as rapid, but to the downside.
Thursday was calmer, with BTC standing between $82,500 and $84,000. It began to climb again on Friday and was boosted by the much weaker-than-expected US jobs report. The initial move was quite bullish, as bitcoin jumped past $87,000 for the first time in ten days or so.
Somewhat surprisingly, though, it crashed almost immediately and had dumped to under $84,000 within hours. The bulls finally intervened at this point and helped BTC recover to $84,000 on Saturday. It has increased slightly to over $85,000 as of now on Sunday.
Its market capitalization has jumped to $1.710 trillion on CMC, while its dominance over the alts remains flat at 59%.
BTCUSD October 4. Source: TradingView PUMP Pumps Ethereum has returned to $2,700 today after a minor increase from yesterday. XRP eyes $1.50 following a 1.1% jump. BNB nears $800 after a more impressive 2.9% increase. Most other larger-cap alts have risen by about 1-2%. HYPE is up by 3% and stands above $90.
CRO, NEAR, and TAO have gained up to 4.5%, while RAIN and PUMP are the two top performers from this cohort of alts. The former has gained almost 14%, while the latter is up by 16% to $0.0063. ZRO and AERO follow suit in terms of daily gains.
The total crypto market cap has increased by approximately $30 billion daily and now sits at $2.910 trillion on CMC.
Cryptocurrency Market Overview October 4. Source: QuantifyCrypto Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
TLDR: Bitcoin price this week could move toward $90,000 if the bull flag breaks higher. A sustained move above resistance remains essential. Iran says Hormuz will remain closed until seven conditions are met. Prolonged shipping disruption could increase inflation pressure. The Coinbase Premium Index is recovering, suggesting renewed US demand. Changing whale orders leave nearby liquidity levels uncertain. Rising yields and the coming US economic releases could test Bitcoin momentum. Leveraged long face liquidation risk if support fails. The Bitcoin price forecast this week puts $90,000 in focus as the cryptocurrency consolidates near $85,000. A possible bull flag above support underpins that target, although confirmation requires a sustained breakout.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed pending US commitments. He linked reopening to seven conditions under the Islamabad memorandum, keeping geopolitical risk on the market agenda. Shipping disruptions could complicate the inflation outlook.
Meanwhile, recovering US spot demand faces pressure from rising yields and upcoming economic releases. Those competing forces leave Bitcoin vulnerable to sharp moves in either direction.
Bitcoin Price This Week Tests Support Before a Bull Flag Breakout Bitcoin’s price this week remains tied to whether the consolidation resolves upward. Market data shows five weeks of trading around $85,000, with the latest weekly wick reaching $87,000.
An upside break would strengthen the bull flag case for $90,000, provided former resistance becomes support. Repeated rejection would weaken that scenario and keep attention on the lower boundary of the consolidation.
The Coinbase Premium Index provides another test for Bitcoin price this week. An early recovery suggests renewed US demand rather than confirming a durable shift.
CryptoQuant calculates the premium using Coinbase dollar prices and Binance tether prices. Exchange-specific flows and stablecoin pricing differences can influence the reading. The index reflects relative pricing rather than directly measuring new capital flowing into the market.
Stronger readings can indicate increased buying pressure on Coinbase but require confirmation from wider trading activity. A temporary premium can fade without producing a sustained advance across exchanges.
CoinGlass order data shows a $13.25 million bid at $82,500 in. It also listed a $15.52 million ask at $84,799.90. These orders can change quickly and do not establish permanent support or resistance.
Strait of Hormuz Closure Raises Inflation and Funding Risks Ghalibaf said Washington had sent proposals through a mediator after Iran presented a roadmap for reopening the strait. He rejected unilateral demands and tied access to US compliance with the seven conditions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi separately said an accepted proposal could allow reopening within seven days.
The Strait of Hormuz dispute adds an energy risk to Bitcoin price this week. A prolonged disruption could increase oil costs, complicating inflation expectations and reducing confidence that monetary policy will ease.
Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces also struck Houthi-controlled Sanaa while fighting displaced civilians. The regional escalation adds another uncertainty for markets already assessing the shipping dispute.
Rising bond yields create another challenge for Bitcoin price this week. As reported, higher Treasury yields are alongside a 7.6% rate for 30-year mortgages. Those figures measure different borrowing costs, but both can reflect tighter financial conditions.
ISM schedules its services report for October 5, adding an early test of business activity and price pressures. Federal Reserve minutes follow on October 7 under the central bank’s three-week release timetable. Employment updates, jobless claims, and Michigan inflation expectations will also shape rate expectations.
The one-year inflation expectations had previously reached 4.6%. Stronger inflation signals could reinforce expectations for restrictive policy, reducing demand for risk assets.
The liquidation heatmap showed heavier exposure around leveraged long positions. For Bitcoin price this week, a support break could trigger forced selling before fresh spot demand absorbs supply. Changes in leverage and open positions can alter those estimated liquidation clusters during the session.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
This week’s crypto headlines included political controversy, regulatory changes and renewed optimism around Bitcoin’s next major move. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reversed a multibillion-dollar outflow trend, while analysts and financial institutions pointed toward higher price targets and stronger investor demand. Meanwhile, Washington remained central to the industry’s conversation, with lobbying efforts, custody rules and a memecoin-linked dinner drawing attention.
Trump, Newsom and Memecoin Access QuestionCalifornia Gov. Gavin Newsom accused President Donald Trump of selling access to the White House after another dinner was announced for Official Trump token holders. The Nov. 22 event will be held at Trump National Golf Club in Washington, D.C., with invitations for the top 185 holders and VIP access for the top 29.
Read the full article here.
Bitcoin ETFs Stage A Major ReversalU.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $6.34 billion in net inflows during the third quarter, according to SoSoValue data, reversing approximately $5 billion in outflows during the second quarter. The buying arrived as Bitcoin gained 42.7% for the quarter, marking its strongest quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024.
Read the full article here.
SEC Turns Its Attention to Crypto CustodyPaul Atkins, chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), highlighted a new proposal designed to establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency custody. Atkins said crypto had expanded from a "niche curiosity into a multi-trillion-dollar asset class," while regulations failed to keep pace with that growth.
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Read the full article here.
Bitcoin’s $100,000 Case Gains Fresh SupportBitcoin was trading around $84,550, slightly below its September high of $87,300, as retail and institutional demand helped support the broader cryptocurrency market. Citigroup raised its Bitcoin forecast to $113,000, joining Standard Chartered, Bitwise and Fundstrat among firms presenting bullish outlooks.
Read the full article here.
Crypto Lobbying Spends Millions on Stalled LegislationCryptocurrency companies spent approximately $8 million lobbying for the CLARITY Act, which failed a key Senate vote last month, according to a report published Wednesday. Coinbase, Robinhood, Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto division and others were among the participants, with industry lobbying reaching $13 million during the first half of 2026.
Read the full article here.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Bitcoin is up 46% from its July low and could reclaim its all-time high (ATH) of $126K by Q1 2027. According to Ecoinometrics, historical drawdowns and recoveries suggest Bitcoin could take 60 to 230 days to reclaim its previous ATH.
Assuming the $57.8K low on the 1st of July marked the bottom, the rebound would be approximately three months old. The longer recovery timeline would stretch into February 2027. The research firm added,
Bitcoin is currently around 90 days past the bottom and still about 30% below its all-time high. By historical standards, this recovery does not look mature yet. If the trend holds, there is still room for it to develop well into Q1
Source: Ecoinmetrics This is a very aggressive target compared to Citigroup analysts, who expected BTC to hit $113K by Q3/Q4 2027. The asset traded at $85K at press time.
What’s currently weighing Bitcoin down? On-chain data supported the Ecoinometrics outlook. According to prominent Bitcoin quant analyst Frank Fetter, Bitcoin’s ‘expansion’ phase could kick off in early 2027.
The analyst cited the Choppiness Index, which distinguishes sideways conditions from trending markets.
Source: Checkonchain/Frank Per the attached chart, expansion momentum increases if the Choppiness Index retreats. As of writing, the index was near a peak, and the metric’s pullback would suggest an accelerated BTC expansion phase.
Which raises a crucial question: what’s currently delaying the expansion or recovery phase?
Simple answer: the macro landscape, specifically inflation.
Why is inflation holding Bitcoin back? According to Ecoinmetrics, headline US inflation has been sticky and hasn’t trended down as expected.
The Bitcoin setup is improving, but persistent inflation still puts a limit on how aggressively we should lean into it simply because of this looming macro risk.
Both US inflation and labor market status inform Fed rate decisions. Last Friday’s jobs report reinforced a cooling labor market and diminished Fed rate hike fears ahead of the FOMC meeting on 28th of October. This sparked a recovery across equity markets, but Bitcoin didn’t join the broader market rebound.
Another inflation data release (CPI) scheduled for 14th October would confirm whether the Fed will hold interest rates steady or hike by a quarter point.
While inflation has dictated Bitcoin’s demand, the asset has its own factors that have weighed on its recovery.
Who is selling into Bitcoin’s recovery? Notably, 2025 top buyers are at break-even and driving the current selling pressure, according to Glassnode.
Those who bought the 2025 rally are selling the most coins per day this year. Those who bought the decline are not.
Source: Glassnode As such, $89K and $97K will be key resistance levels that must be cleared for Bitcoin’s expansion phase to extend.
Besides, Bitcoin’s overall demand is still negative despite the improved U.S. spot BTC ETF flows in the past few weeks.
Source: CryptoQuant Overall, Bitcoin’s recovery is still intact, but it must navigate through macro uncertainty and the 2025 top buyers’ dump.
Final Summary BTC price could reclaim $126K by Q1 2027, implying 50% upside potential from $85K Broader weak demand and pressure from 2025 top buyers are delaying full recovery
Bitcoin approaches October with a particularly busy macroeconomic calendar in the United States. The Federal Reserve minutes, inflation figures, consumption, the rate decision, and growth data could change monetary expectations and cause strong fluctuations in the crypto market.
In brief Bitcoin approaches October with a particularly busy American macroeconomic calendar. Five key events will concentrate attention, between Fed, inflation, consumption, GDP, and PCE. Inflation figures could change rate expectations and weigh on the dollar as well as risky assets. The Fed’s decision on October 28 could trigger strong volatility, especially if there is a surprise in their speech. Despite the favorable reputation of “Uptober,” macroeconomic data will remain decisive for bitcoin. Bitcoin in October: the five appointments to remember The U.S. employment report, published on October 2, has already set the tone by reigniting debates on the economy’s strength. Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve and upcoming inflation indicators.
Five appointments will concentrate the main macroeconomic risks for the rest of the month :
October 7: publication of the minutes of the Fed’s September meeting ; October 14: U.S. consumer price index ; October 15: producer prices and retail sales ; October 28: Fed decision on interest rates ; October 29: first estimate of GDP and the September PCE index. These releases do not directly determine the bitcoin price. However, they influence bond yields, the dollar, and liquidity expectations, three factors that can quickly change investors’ appetite for risky assets.
Inflation figures will test bitcoin in October The Fed will publish the minutes of its September 15-16 meeting on October 7. The central bank had then raised rates for the first time in over three years. The document will detail the arguments put forward by officials and their perception of inflation risks.
A week later, the market will discover the consumer price index for September. This release, scheduled for October 14, will assess if price pressures continue to settle in the U.S. economy.
Inflation higher than expected could strengthen the scenario of further monetary tightening. Bond yields and the dollar could then rise, reducing bitcoin’s relative appeal. Conversely, a more marked price slowdown would ease pressure on the Fed.
On October 15, the producer price index will complement this first reading. It measures the evolution of costs borne by companies and can signal future pressures on consumer prices.
September retail sales will be released the same day. Strong consumption would show the economy still resists high rates. However, this strength could encourage the central bank to maintain a restrictive policy longer.
The Fed’s decision could trigger volatility The Federal Reserve will hold its next meeting on October 27 and 28. Its decision will be published on October 28 at 2 p.m. in Washington, before the press conference by its chairman, Kevin Warsh.
The level of rates will naturally attract attention. However, a widely anticipated decision may already be priced before the announcement. The market will then focus on the words used by the Fed and its indications regarding the last meeting of the year.
A speech emphasizing the persistence of inflation would support the hypothesis of sustainably high rates. This prospect can weigh on BTC, which pays no interest and faces more competition from bonds when their yields increase.
Conversely, a Fed more concerned with employment or growth could fuel expectations of a less restrictive policy. This configuration would not guarantee a rise in bitcoin, but it could improve the liquidity environment in which cryptos operate.
Leveraged positions will also increase the risk of abrupt movements. An initial market reaction can trigger chain liquidations even before investors have fully analyzed the press conference.
Bitcoin in October will also depend on GDP and PCE On October 29, less than 24 hours after the Fed’s decision, the United States will publish the first estimate of their third-quarter GDP. This figure will provide a more complete measure of the economy’s resilience.
The report on household income and expenditures will appear at the same time. It contains the PCE index, the inflation measure favored by the central bank. This data will arrive too late to influence the October meeting but could modify expectations for December.
Strong growth accompanied by persistent inflation would increase the risk of further rate hikes. Weaker activity and better controlled prices could have the opposite effect. A growth drop with still high inflation would create, however, a more difficult scenario to interpret.
October retains a favorable reputation among crypto investors. Between 2013 and 2025, bitcoin ended the month up ten times out of thirteen, with an average gain close to 19%. However, it had fallen in October 2025, proving seasonality guarantees no result.
The macroeconomic calendar will therefore weigh more than the nickname “Uptober”. The gaps between published figures and market expectations will likely determine the scale of reactions.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, potentially signaling additional BTC purchases.
Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared updates on the company’s Bitcoin tracker, noting, “More orange than ever.” Following past patterns, the orange dots represent Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase records, and this move likely signals the firm will increase its BTC holdings. Strategy typically discloses changes to its Bitcoin position the day after such announcements.
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Bitcoin traded near $85,000 this week as the cryptocurrency market closely tracked geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic developments. Price consolidation kept traders watching key resistance levels, with a potential breakout toward $90,000 in focus if bullish momentum continues.
Bitcoin battles resistance near $85,000After nearly five weeks fluctuating around $85,000, Bitcoin briefly touched $87,000 but failed to sustain higher levels. Market analysts highlighted the presence of a potential bull flag pattern, a technical indicator that suggests the possibility of further gains if the price convincingly moves above key resistance.
A decisive breakout would confirm the bull flag and could propel Bitcoin toward the $90,000 target. However, repeated rejection at resistance might see the price revisit lower support zones within the ongoing consolidation range.
Bitcoin must maintain momentum above $85,000 for a breakout, as repeated resistance could keep attention on lower levels and delay any move toward new highs.
Order book data from CoinGlass showed a $13.25 million bid around $82,500 and a $15.52 million ask at $84,799.90, but these figures remain subject to rapid change as trading conditions evolve.
Coinbase Premium Index hints at renewed US demandThe Coinbase Premium Index, which compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase (a major US cryptocurrency exchange) with Binance (leading global crypto platform), started to recover early in the week. This movement is interpreted as a possible sign of strengthening spot demand from US traders and institutions.
Analysts cautioned that the index tracks price differences between exchanges—often influenced by exchange flows or stablecoin pricing—and therefore does not directly reflect fresh capital entering the market.
Sustained higher premiums on Coinbase can indicate strong buying interest, but confirmation from broader trading activity remains critical before declaring a renewed uptrend.
Mini dictionary: Coinbase Premium Index, a metric that shows the price gap for a cryptocurrency, mainly Bitcoin, between Coinbase and other primary exchanges such as Binance. A positive value suggests greater buying pressure in the US, while a negative gap means stronger demand on non-US platforms.
Hormuz Strait closure intensifies inflation concernsIranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the US fulfills seven specific conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum. He said Washington had sent proposals through a mediator, but the strait’s reopening depends on US actions.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added that the passage could reopen within seven days if an acceptable proposal is reached. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global oil shipping route, and disruptions there can significantly affect energy prices and global inflation trends.
Additional conflict in Yemen and regional tensions contributed to uncertainty in oil and risk asset markets, with traders closely watching developments for further escalation.
US inflation, yields and Bitcoin volatilityRising US bond yields presented another challenge for Bitcoin. Treasury yields and mortgage rates increased, signaling more expensive borrowing costs and potentially tighter financial conditions. The 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.6% during the week, while the ISM was set to release its services data for a new inflation snapshot.
MetricLatest ValueBitcoin priceNear $85,00030-year mortgage rate7.6%Bid level (CoinGlass)$13.25 million at $82,500Ask level (CoinGlass)$15.52 million at $84,799.90Upcoming US economic data, including Federal Reserve minutes, jobless claims, and inflation expectations, could impact monetary policy sentiment. Analysts noted that higher inflation signals may support continued restrictive policies, reducing investor appetite for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Monitoring leverage and open interest, liquidation data revealed concentrated risk among highly leveraged long positions. If Bitcoin breaks below critical support, forced liquidations could drive prices sharply lower until new spot buyers step in.
Bitcoin traded around $84,912 according to CoinCodex data, with the broader cryptocurrency market showing modest gains. Despite trading below the recent swing high of $87,300, Bitcoin maintains a positive bias as it holds on to most of its recent gains.
$87,000 remains key resistance for bullsOver the past two weeks, Bitcoin’s price has been largely confined between support in the low $80,000s and resistance just below $87,000. This consolidation phase highlights the pivotal importance of the $87,000 to $87,300 range, a zone that has repeatedly limited further upside.
Recent analysis identified $87,300 as the critical level that must be surpassed before bulls can target the next major milestone of $90,000. Price action close to this resistance suggests the market awaits a decisive breakout before confirming the next directional move.
Should Bitcoin secure a breakout above the $85,000 mark and swiftly clear the $87,000-$87,300 resistance on robust trading volume, analysts believe the path toward $90,000 could open. A confirmed push above $90,000 would likely reignite discussions about the long-anticipated $100,000 psychological level.
Bitcoin must first establish a foothold above $85,000 and then overcome resistance at $87,000–$87,300 with stronger volume if a rally toward $90,000 and higher targets is to materialize.
Institutional demand and ETF inflowsInstitutional participation continues to be cited as a major driver behind Bitcoin’s ongoing resilience. In the third quarter, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows totaling approximately $6.34 billion, with $2.65 billion arriving in September alone.
During the same period, Bitcoin’s price climbed nearly 43%, marking its strongest third-quarter performance since 2017. This surge in ETF inflows is widely viewed as creating a supportive backdrop for the market, even though inflows can fluctuate significantly from day to day.
Mini dictionary: Spot Bitcoin ETF, Exchange-traded funds that hold actual Bitcoin, allowing institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin price movements via traditional stock exchanges without buying or storing the cryptocurrency itself.
PeriodBTC ETF InflowsBTC Price ChangeQ3 2023$6.34 billion+43%September 2023$2.65 billionIncluded in Q3Macroeconomic factors and market outlookA weaker US jobs report released on Friday has bolstered the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates again in the immediate future. However, US Treasury yields remain elevated above 5%, maintaining pressure on risk assets and making the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin higher.
With Treasury yields above 5% and daily ETF flows still volatile, Bitcoin faces ongoing headwinds even as institutional demand provides underlying support.
More volatility is expected on Monday morning after the latest weekend developments on the matter.
After Friday’s enhanced volatility following the US economic news, bitcoin’s price inched higher during the weekend and now sits above $85,000.
However, it almost feels like a familiar trap. History has shown that fluctuations ramp up on Monday morning after an eventful weekend in terms of new developments on the Middle East front.
The New Tension Reports emerged yesterday claiming that US President Donald Trump’s top national security officials met at Camp David on Friday in a meeting that lasted hours and focused on the war against Iran. It was described as a “highly unusual meeting” that was not announced by the administration. However, one official claimed that “things were decided.” It was chaired by VP JD Vance, and some of the other attendees included CDI Director Ratcliffe and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Caine.
The last similar meeting was in June 2025, just a few days before Israel attacked Iran. Asked about the meaning of the meeting and the US’s potential next move, the POTUS said, “If I told you, you would have a major story. But you will see.”
Later on, The Hormuz Letter added that Iran is “preparing for a fresh US bombing campaign greater than the last one.” One senior official warned that any new attack coming from US forces, whether by air or ground, will be treated as “all-out war and met with the ‘hardest’ response.”
The US has recently deployed nearly 10,000 troops, including 2,000 US Marines, to the Middle East aboard a third aircraft carrier and an amphibious landing group. It should arrive by November, while the midterm elections are scheduled for November 3. Trump previously said that new waves of attacks are likely to follow after the midterms.
Thirdly, Yemen’s Houthis struck a Saudi Aramco facility in Riyadh with ballistic missiles for the first time in over four years.
You may also like: 4 Cryptocurrencies to Watch This Week: BTC, HYPE, ZEC, and KAS Face Crucial Tests Citi Turns More Bullish on Bitcoin and Strategy: Here Are the New Targets Bitcoin Crashes Below $84K as Crypto Liquidations Near $600M Calm Before the Storm? All of these developments took place in the past 36 hours or so. Within this timeframe, BTC’s price has remained relatively calm and has increased slightly to over $85,000. However, history shows that the cryptocurrency tends to feel the actual consequences of escalating tension on Monday morning.
The latest such example was last week, when the POTUS rejected Iran’s peace deal offer on Saturday. Bitcoin stood still when the news went live but dumped by $2,000 on Monday morning when most traditional markets started to open.
Bitcoin OGs Move First Funds in 13 Years: 1,346 $BTC ($115M) Now Worth 479x Initial Investment
Two Bitcoin OGs who bought 1,346 $BTC($115M now) 13 years ago have moved 0.0005 $BTC ($43) after years of dormancy as a test transaction. They bought 1,346 $BTC ($240K at the time) 13 years ago at an average price of $178, and are now sitting on a 479x return.
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Robert Kiyosaki, Bitcoin, altın ve gümüş sahibi olmayı finansal sorunlara karşı sigorta yaptırmaya benzetti. “Zengin Baba Yoksul Baba” kitabının yazarı, ekonomik sıkıntılara hazırlanmanın mutlaka bir çöküş beklemek anlamına gelmediğini söyledi ve hükümetlerin çıkardığı paralara yönelik eleştirilerini yineledi.
Kiyosaki, özellikle enflasyon ve para arzındaki genişlemenin satın alma gücünü erittiğini düşünüyor. Ona göre sınırlı arza sahip varlıklar, bu risklere karşı portföyde bir koruma unsuru oluşturabilir.
Kiyosaki Bitcoin, Altın ve Gümüşü Neden Sigortaya Benzetiyor? Kiyosaki, son X paylaşımında kendisini “finansal prepper” olarak tanımladı. Ekonomik sorunlara karşı hazırlıklı olmayı, otomobil sigortası yaptırmaya benzetti.
Bir kadınla yaptığı konuşmadan söz eden Kiyosaki, hazırlık yapmanın mutlaka kötü bir sonuç beklemek anlamına gelmediğini savundu. Otomobil sahipleri kaza yapmak istedikleri için sigorta yaptırmıyor. Beklenmedik bir sorun yaşandığında korunmak için sigorta yaptırıyorlar.
Kiyosaki de benzer yaklaşımı altın, gümüş ve Bitcoin için kullanıyor. Paylaşımında karşısındaki kişiye “Altın, gümüş, bitcoin sahibi misin?” diye sordu ve yatırım anlayışını tek cümleyle özetledi: Devletin basamayacağı parayı istiyor.
Bu yaklaşımın merkezinde enflasyon ve para arzı bulunuyor. Kiyosaki, hükümetlerin ihraç ettiği paraların satın alma gücünü zaman içinde kaybedebileceğini savunuyor. BTC ise 21 milyonluk azami arzı nedeniyle onun bu tezine daha doğrudan uyuyor.
Yine de sınırlı arz tek başına bir varlığın belirli bir dönemde satın alma gücünü koruyacağını garanti etmiyor.
Kiyosaki Bitcoin’de Düşüşlerde Alım Yapmaya Devam Ediyor Kiyosaki’nin son açıklamasındaki ton, son dönemde yaptığı bazı daha sert ekonomik kriz uyarılarına göre daha temkinli. Fakat yatırım stratejisinin temeli değişmiş değil.
Daha önce yükselen borç yükü, enflasyon, enerji kaynaklı jeopolitik gerilimler ve geleneksel emeklilik sistemlerindeki sorunların daha büyük bir finansal krizde birleşebileceğini savunmuştu. Böyle dönemlerde Bitcoin, altın ve gümüşü geleneksel itibari para bazlı birikimlere alternatif olarak gösteriyor.
Kiyosaki zayıf piyasa dönemlerinde de bu yaklaşımı uyguladığını söylüyor. Birkaç ay önce finansal çöküşün hızlandığını savunurken Bitcoin ve Ethereum dahil çeşitli varlıkları toplamaya devam ettiğini açıklamıştı.
Ancak Bitcoin ve Ethereum’daki düşüşler konusunda her zaman aynı noktada durmadı. Haziran ayında ise BTC ve ETH’deki düşüşü henüz satın almama kararını açıklamıştı. Fiyatların yaklaşık bir hafta içinde dip yapması, bu kez Kiyosaki’nin beklediği seviyeye ulaşmadan piyasanın toparlandığını göstermişti.
Kiyosaki’nin son paylaşımı, Bitcoin ve değerli metallere yaklaşımının fiyat tahmininden çok finansal korunma stratejisi üzerine kurulu olduğunu gösteriyor. Onun açısından mesele bir kriz çıkmasını beklemek değil, böyle bir senaryoda portföyde alternatif varlıklar bulundurmak.
Bu içerik genel piyasa verilerine dayanır ve yatırım tavsiyesi değildir. Kendi araştırmanızı yapmanızı öneririz.
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The ARK Invest CEO says the US dollar is much stronger than investors think and could appreciate significantly over the next few years.
Why is it important for investors? A stronger dollar could pressure gold, reshape bond positioning, and test Bitcoin’s recent ability to rise rapidly.
Wood Says Investors Are Watching the Wrong Dollar ChartMost traders follow the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies. ARK argues that measure is outdated.
The Federal Reserve’s broader index covers 26 countries and updates its weights annually. On that measure, Wood says the dollar has gained 36% since August 2008 and now trades 44% above its long-term average.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Performance. Source: ARK Invest
“Contrary to the current narrative, the dollar has not been weak relative to the currencies of our trade partners,” Wood wrote.
Her investment case is simple. Tax incentives are encouraging companies to reinvest in US factories and data centers, while she expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to maintain tight monetary discipline.
Wood compares the setup with the early 1980s, when stronger US returns helped send the dollar sharply higher.
In September, the DXY already posted its best month since June, gaining nearly 2% as the Fed raised rates and signaled more hikes.
The Trade Gets More Interesting With Gold and BitcoinGold is the biggest challenge to Wood’s argument.
The dollar has lost 92% of its purchasing power against gold since 2002. Wood thinks tighter policy could reverse some of that move.
Gold has already fallen from its January record of $5,602 to around $4,140. Morgan Stanley’s Amy Gower still sees $4,000 as strong support, helped by central-bank buying.
That makes $4,000 a key level for investors watching Wood’s thesis.
Bitcoin offers another signal. BTC historically struggles when the dollar strengthens, yet it gained 6.14% in September while DXY also rose.
If that divergence continues, Bitcoin may be behaving differently from previous dollar cycles. If it breaks down, Wood’s stronger-dollar call could become a much bigger problem for crypto investors.
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Jordi Visser, an investor known for his optimistic views on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, argued that a strong market movement could occur in the last quarter of the year. According to Visser, Bitcoin surpassing $82,000 would confirm the bull trend, while the entry of new investors and increasing institutional interest could lead to an acceleration of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) very soon. Visser stated that he had previously described Bitcoin exceeding the $82,000 level as confirmation of the bull trend, and that the fundamental outlook is strengthening day by day.
Visser specifically highlighted the importance of the fourth quarter for institutional investors. Stating that he doesn’t place much emphasis on the traditional four-year crypto cycle, the investor noted that large fund managers and capital allocation decision-makers typically make their most critical portfolio decisions for the following year in the final quarter, particularly in the last two months. According to Visser, the fact that institutional investors are already increasing their research into crypto assets could create a new source of demand for the market in the coming period.
Visser argues that the shift on the institutional side should be considered in conjunction with the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) that is beginning to emerge on Wall Street, explaining that asset managers who were previously hesitant about cryptocurrencies are now asking him about investment options. Pointing to the work being done by traditional financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citi in the areas of tokenization and stablecoins, Visser believes that the financial sector’s interest in blockchain infrastructure is steadily expanding.
Visser stated that macroeconomic conditions could also become more supportive of Bitcoin, noting that interest rates don’t necessarily need to fall sharply. According to the analyst, the key is the end of a period of consistently rising bond yields. Visser suggested that the weaker-than-expected core PCE data and weakening labor and wage data could help offset the upward pressure on interest rates. He believes such an environment could support appetite for risky assets.
Another point Visser highlighted is the potential rotation of capital from AI investments to cryptocurrencies. Recalling his previous statement that gains from AI stocks could eventually return to Bitcoin, Visser noted that this rotation may have already begun on a small scale. According to the investor, the AI theme will not disappear, but market participants may simultaneously begin to show renewed interest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Visser also believes that AI agents could significantly expand the use cases of blockchain technology. Arguing that the current financial infrastructure may be insufficient for AI agents to perform fast and automated transactions, Visser states that blockchain-based payments, stablecoins, and tokenization could play a crucial role in this. According to the analyst, the widespread adoption of AI agents could lead to a significant increase in token transaction volumes.
Describing these developments as the “Micron moment” of the crypto market, Visser believes that investors underestimate how quickly technological change can occur. He states that stablecoin payments, tokenization, and the impact of AI agents could lead to strong growth in token volumes, and that the acceleration of this process by AI agents is one of the main reasons for his optimism towards crypto.
According to Visser’s assessment, the convergence of all these factors makes the last quarter of 2026 a remarkable period for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
*This is not investment advice.
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Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen to around 2.68 million BTC, their lowest level since 2023 according to CryptoQuant data. At the beginning of 2024, they were still close to 3.2 million BTC. The decline continued despite strong price fluctuations, until the 2025 rally and then the 2026 pullback. Less Bitcoin therefore remains directly available on trading platforms. An interesting signal, but not automatically bullish.
In Brief Exchanges now hold about 2.68 million Bitcoin. Reserves were still close to 3.2 million BTC at the start of 2024. The decline reduces the immediately available supply without guaranteeing a price increase. 2.68 Million Bitcoin Remain on Exchanges The trend is not new this week. Since spring, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges had already fallen to their lowest level since 2023. Nearly 100,000 BTC then left Binance, OKX, and Gemini in less than three months.
The movement continues. According to CryptoQuant, monitored platforms now hold about 2.68 million BTC. The “Exchange Reserve” indicator counts bitcoins in wallets identified as belonging to exchanges. A drop means that some coins leave these addresses to go elsewhere: personal wallet, custody service, institution, OTC structure, or another on-chain address.
At the start of 2024, the same indicator had reached about 3.2 million BTC while Bitcoin was still trading below $70,000.
Since then, the market has experienced several phases. Bitcoin surpassed $73,000 in 2024. It then reached a peak above $126,000 in 2025, before suffering a much larger correction in 2026. Exchange reserves have continued to follow an overall downward slope.
The price returned to around $85,000 in early October. That was not enough to massively send BTC back to platforms. On October 3rd, the overall reserve remained close to 2.68 million. For a holder who does not plan to sell, leaving their bitcoins on a platform is not essential. Moving to a personal wallet also reduces risk directly linked to the exchange.
Bitcoin in 2022 The events of 2022 had already accelerated this habit. But 2026 adds other players. US spot ETFs, publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin, and institutional custody services have profoundly changed how BTC circulate. A coin leaving Binance or Coinbase does not necessarily end up in a private individual’s personal wallet.
The contrast is visible with Binance. While the overall reserve drops, the largest crypto platform experienced the opposite movement in September. Its reserves reached about 702,900 BTC on September 19, according to CryptoQuant data cited by U.Today. It was their highest level of the year.
A platform can therefore fill up while the overall market empties. This is precisely what prevents reducing the figure of 2.68 million to a simple phrase like: “everyone is buying Bitcoin.” However, the underlying trend remains clear. There are fewer BTC on monitored exchanges today than at the beginning of 2024.
Less Available Bitcoin Does Not Necessarily Mean Shortage On paper, the mechanism seems simple. When an investor wants to quickly sell Bitcoin, they generally send their BTC to an exchange. When reserves strongly increase, more coins can theoretically come to the market.
Conversely, when bitcoins leave platforms, this immediately available reserve shrinks. CryptoQuant even describes the Exchange Reserve as a direct indicator of potentially available supply on the sellers’ side. A durable drop is historically associated with shifts towards off-exchange custody and potentially lower selling pressure.
But the important word remains “potential.” This summer showed this well. In August, 28,000 BTC had returned to exchanges in less than three weeks. This rebound had erased much of the accumulated drop during previous weeks.
Bitcoin had not therefore immediately entered a big selling phase. Exchange reserves measure asset location, not their owner’s exact intention.
The case of ETFs further complicates the reading. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.65 billion net in September. It was their second-best month since October 2025. Institutional demand clearly rebounded while overall exchange reserves kept falling.
Yet, these funds do not operate like an individual opening Binance and immediately withdrawing BTC to a Ledger.
A significant part of their operations goes through institutional custodians and over-the-counter transactions. Movements thus do not always appear as expected in simple exchange reserve statistics.
Wallet Classification Analysis companies must identify which addresses belong to Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, or other exchanges. When a platform changes its custody architecture, creates new wallets, or moves assets between different structures, reading certain data can temporarily change.
This explains why absolute levels sometimes vary from one data provider to another. The signal remains useful. It simply should not be turned into a prediction. This caution is especially important today. Bitcoin just completed a very solid third quarter. The price gained more than 40% between July and September before settling around $83,000 to $87,000 at month-end. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant also noted profit-taking and some transfers back to exchanges.
Several movements coexist. Bitcoins overall leave platforms. Some actors send them back. ETFs attract capital again. Other investors take profits after the rally. The market does not move as a whole.
ETFs and Large Holders Change BTC Circulation The reserve decrease makes more sense when viewed over several years. Bitcoin’s market structure is no longer the same as in 2020 or 2021. US spot ETFs now hold a considerable amount of BTC. Companies have also accumulated significant reserves. Strategy, the largest publicly traded corporate holder, owned 847,666 BTC at the end of September after buying 1,665 more bitcoins for around $143 million.
These bitcoins are not used to feed daily order books on exchanges.
They can remain immobilized for long. Private individuals have also resumed their purchases. In the third quarter, they accumulated about 107,000 BTC while funds and ETFs temporarily reduced their positions.
The situation changed again in September with the return of inflows into ETFs. This is probably the most interesting part of today’s market: several buyer categories can take turns without the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges rising sustainably.
This naturally fuels the idea of a “supply shock.” The scenario is known. Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million coins. Some BTC are lost or inactive for years. Other bitcoins are in ETFs, company treasuries, or long-term wallets. If the quantity available on exchanges decreases while demand rapidly rises, buyers theoretically must offer higher prices to find sellers.
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Evans S.
Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.
3 October 2026 | 23:37 Crypto interest on Google is fading, according to Alphractal, yet recent Bitcoin ETF inflows show that quieter searches can coexist with substantial buying through other channels.
Key Takeaways Search interest measures public attention to crypto. Bitcoin ETF flows have recently been mixed. Available buyers matter when holders take profits. Alphractal reports the weakest Google search interest in crypto since 2024, while its October 3 chart shows Bitcoin near $84,750 after recovering from earlier lows. The search series remain well below their large 2025 spikes, suggesting that the price recovery has attracted less public curiosity than those earlier bursts of activity.
That gap leaves room for several explanations. Existing investors may keep holding or trading without researching crypto again, while new buyers can enter through services they already use. Distinguishing those possibilities from a genuine retreat in demand requires evidence beyond searches.
Alphractal chart tracking Bitcoin price versus Google Trends interest. What falling Google interest actually measures Google Trends measures relative search interest: how prominent a topic is among searches within a selected location and period. Its scores are based on sampled data and scaled for comparison, rather than reporting an absolute search count. A decline can indicate weaker attention, but it cannot count investors leaving the market.
Alphractal’s chart stacks search series for assets, exchanges and platforms, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance and Coinbase. It does not disclose how those series were combined or whether the sharp drop at the end covers a completed period. The “lowest since 2024” finding therefore remains attributed to Alphractal; the image alone does not establish an exact percentage fall in searches.
Searches also capture different motives. Someone checking an exchange during a crisis can contribute to rising interest without intending to buy. Conversely, a regular customer can open an exchange app and place an order without searching Google at all. Brokerage access adds another way for investment activity to escape this attention measure.
Bitcoin buying has another route A brokerage customer can buy a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund without opening a crypto exchange account or learning how to manage a wallet. That makes ETF flows useful alongside search data: they record money entering or leaving listed products, rather than people looking for information.
Farside Investors’ figures show approximately $2.39 billion in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs during September 21-25. Demand subsequently became uneven, with $148.7 million in net outflows on September 30 followed by $102.7 million in net inflows on October 1 and $31.7 on October 2.
Those figures establish that money entered through listed products in late September and again on October 1. They do not identify who supplied it: ETFs serve individuals and institutions, so inflows cannot establish that institutional investors have replaced retail buyers. What they demonstrate is a channel of demand that Google searches do not directly measure.
Selected altcoins have also recorded strong gains. Coindoo’s October 1 review of crypto gainers documented advances in Stacks, Midnight, NEAR, FET and Ethena. Whether those gains survive subsequent selling will reveal more about their support than their position on a single day’s gainers list.
When fewer buyers make a rally fragile As holders take profits, the market needs buyers willing to absorb their sales. Spot trading volume shows how much trading has occurred, while order-book depth shows the buy and sell orders available near the current price. High volume alone does not establish that fresh money is entering, but these measures together help assess how readily trades can be executed.
Consider a hypothetical $100,000 market sell order. If substantial buy orders sit close to the current price, the sale may be absorbed with limited movement. If those bids are sparse, the same order may execute against progressively lower prices. A relatively modest sale can therefore cause a large price move in a thin market.
Fading attention becomes more consequential when buying activity and available bids weaken too. In that situation, holders seeking to exit may find fewer buyers near the prices reached during the rally. This is a condition to check with trading data, rather than one already established by Alphractal’s search chart.
Evidence of a broader recovery To assess whether participation is rebuilding, compare search interest with spot activity, ETF flows and the number of tokens holding their gains. Each addresses a different part of the recovery:
Evidence What it helps assess Searches recover Public curiosity returning across completed periods. Spot activity and depth improve More trading and more orders available near current prices. ETF inflows persist Sustained demand through listed investment products. More tokens retain gains Price strength spreading and surviving pullbacks. A rise in searches without stronger market activity would offer limited evidence that curiosity is turning into purchases. Equally, persistent investment inflows and deeper books could support a recovery while searches remain subdued. Watching these measures over several sessions is more informative than treating one low reading or one strong inflow day as decisive.
The harder test comes when holders sell into the recovery. Prices that retain their gains through profit-taking would suggest buyers are absorbing that supply. Repeated reversals would indicate that buying is struggling to sustain higher prices, even if public interest starts returning.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Search interest is an attention indicator and does not reliably predict cryptocurrency prices.
Author
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
On October 2, 2026, the Securities and Exchange Commission published notice of a rule change that lets Investors Exchange list options on commodity-based trusts holding Bitcoin and other crypto assets, and that sets position and exercise limits for options on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. The filing, Release No. 34-106575, arrived the same day IEX’s new options venue, IEX Options, was scheduled to begin trading, and the Commission made it effective immediately.
What the rule change establishes IEX proposes to add a generic listing standard for options on trusts that hold a single crypto asset or multiple crypto assets. To qualify, each underlying asset must post an average daily market value of at least $700 million over the prior 12 months, measured as total global supply multiplied by token price, using prices drawn from public sources such as CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap. Each asset must also underlie a derivatives contract that trades on a market where IEX has a comprehensive surveillance sharing agreement, either directly or through common membership in the Intermarket Surveillance Group. The exchange would verify the $700 million threshold on a monthly basis and the surveillance requirement continuously, and it could delist options whose underlying trust stops meeting those conditions.
IBIT limits and the IEX Options launch The proposal also aligns IEX’s position and exercise limits for IBIT options with the limits already in force on other options exchanges. IEX submitted the proposed rule change on September 22, 2026. The exchange’s options venue, approved by the Commission in September 2025, opened for trading on October 2. IEX said its crypto-trust criteria are substantively identical to standards the Commission has already approved for ISE, MEMX, MIAX, BOX, PHLX, NYSE American and NYSE Arca, and the SEC waived the usual 30-day operative delay because the change raises no new legal or regulatory questions.
Why it matters The change adds another U.S. venue for options on spot Bitcoin and Ether funds, which have become among the most heavily traded crypto products in the United States. Options give traders a cheaper way to hedge exposure to those funds, and the move comes at a time when exchange-traded crypto products are drawing more regulatory attention. The SEC recently approved a Nasdaq Texas rule adding a digital-commodity definition to crypto ETPs, and NYSE Arca earlier launched options on the Zcash ETF. IEX’s proposal is open for public comment for 21 days after its Federal Register publication.
AUTHOR
Mysterious crypto writer with expertise in blockchain, offering deep insights that captivate and intrigue readers. With a unique ability to uncover hidden insights and trends, Samuel delivers in-depth analysis and thought-provoking content that keeps readers on the edge of their seats. His writing style is engaging and informative, blending technical knowledge with a sense of intrigue, making complex crypto topics accessible to both newcomers and seasoned industry professionals. Samuel’s work continues to capture the attention of the crypto community, solidifying his reputation as a trusted voice in the space.
President Trump has once again reassured that every American will receive $5,000 as a “Trump Dividend” if Republicans win the November midterms.
Past stimulus-style payments have notably benefited crypto markets and Bitcoin’s price. So, could a republican win actually be bullish for Bitcoin’s price?
If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 Midterm Elections, I’m going to give all adult citizens in the United States of America, $5,000! Thank you for your attention to this matter, and I look forward to signing those checks! pic.twitter.com/YOkESiUBrc
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 3, 2026 What Is the Trump Dividend, and Could It Lift Bitcoin?The Trump Dividend proposes a $5,000 payment to roughly 240 to 250 million eligible adults, contingent on a full Republican sweep of Congress.
The total cost would exceed $1.2 trillion, far surpassing combined COVID-era payments, which topped out near $3,200 per adult across multiple rounds.
Cleveland Fed research found those earlier $1,200 checks drove only a 3.8% rise in Bitcoin buy volume and a 0.7% price increase, with just 0.02% of the funds flowing into BTC.
Even so, BeInCrypto has pointed to real upside potential. Bitcoin buying rose after both the Trump- and Biden-era stimulus rounds, showing measurable, if modest, crypto inflows each time.
Investor Anthony Pompliano has argued that larger handouts would likely push Bitcoin, gold, and land prices higher across the board.
Trump claims that if the Democrats win the midterms, which is very likely, we will have "an economic depression the likes of 1929." So despite his being able to veto anything they pass, the economy he now claims is the strongest ever will immediately collapse into a depression.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) October 3, 2026 Bitcoin is currently trading near $85,000. If Republicans sweep the midterms and Trump’s $5,000 checks actually go out, that scale of liquidity could plausibly push Bitcoin toward the $95,000 to $100,000 range, especially given today’s deeper ETF access and institutional demand.
However, the current crypto market seems much less dependent on US elections, and more on macro conditions. If Democrats winning the midterms means Trump’s war on Iran will end, then it could be even more bullish for crypto and all financial markets.
Will the $5,000 Promise Actually Get Delivered?Prediction markets cast serious doubt on that outcome, and the numbers currently point the other way. Polymarket’s 2026 midterms contract gives a full Republican sweep, required to pass this plan, just a 7% chance as of early October.
A Democratic sweep leads at 65%, while a split Congress sits at 29%. The contract has already drawn more than $16 million in trading volume, and the gap between the two outcomes keeps widening.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms. Source: PolymarketFunding also remains unresolved, since tariff revenue falls well short of covering the plan’s cost. Trump’s prior unfulfilled pledges, including DOGE and tariff dividends, add further skepticism among traders and analysts watching the midterm odds closely.
If the payment were ever delivered, the liquidity injection would likely favor Bitcoin, especially given today’s deeper ETF access and institutional adoption.
Any added inflation could also reinforce Bitcoin’s hedge narrative among investors. But with Democrats currently favored to win, markets appear more likely to treat this promise as campaign rhetoric than a near-term price catalyst, at least for now.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] latest pullback reflects a failed attempt to break the $87,100 resistance that has capped its recovery. After pushing into that zone, Bitcoin reversed sharply, falling nearly 4% toward $83,800 as selling intensified.
However, the decline has so far stopped above the $82,900-$83,000 range floor. In turn, this keeps the broader recovery structure intact. Meanwhile, RSI has fallen from near overbought levels toward 52.
In other words, this simply shows that the September rally has lost momentum rather than fully reversing.
Source: TradingView As such, BTC is at present testing whether it will be possible for buying interest to hold the cost basis zone near $84,000 – $86,500.
Maintaining this zone may create conditions favorable for another test of resistance. However, losing $83,000 would weaken the recovery and expose $80,000, increasing downside pressure.
BTC STH profits hit $1B The pressure is shifting from price resistance to profit-taking, as Short-Term Holders (STH) have more incentive to sell. The STH’s 7-day average Realized Profit rose from $136 million to approximately $1.05 billion.
This illustrates the rapid increase in profit-taking during Bitcoin’s recovery. Further, this increase creates an environment where current buyers will realize significantly greater profits when they trade coins, producing increased supply at the present price level.
Source: Bitview This increased selling incentive explains why it was difficult for BTC to stay above $87,000 and reinforces the need for strong demand. If holders begin to lock in their gains, exchange inflows may remain high and help cap the price below resistance.
However, if profit realization begins to slow down, there will be less available supply, which should provide the opportunity for buyers to regain some of the momentum lost.
Accumulation pressure builds Bitcoin’s rebound is currently experiencing a less dramatic transition in owner behavior. As a result, both accumulation and distribution bands have dramatically narrowed.
The contraction of the bands indicates that several groups that were previously actively buying or selling Bitcoin are not making significant changes in either direction.
The significance of these bands lies in their similarity to 2025, when the band was narrow before subsequent increases in price.
Source: CryptoQuant Moreover, the present setup has occurred while the price of BTC has increased towards $85,000. This indicates that owners are buying their way back into their positions rather than aggressively liquidating them.
As long as this equilibrium continues to be maintained, then demand may have a clearer path forward to challenge the next level at $87,000.
However, should sellers expand their sales activity again, then the aforementioned bullish opportunity will be weakened, limiting potential upside.
DWF Labs Partner: If Trump wins the midterm elections and distributes $5,000 to every adult, the crypto market may usher in a bull market.
DWF Labs Managing Partner Andrei Grachev stated that if Donald Trump wins the midterm elections and disburses $5,000 to every U.S. adult, the scale would reach 150% of the COVID-19 era’s "helicopter money" program. He noted that a portion of these funds would inevitably flow into the crypto market, potentially triggering a bull run comparable to the 2021 rally. However, Grachev warned that investors should take profits during such a rally, as a crisis could follow. Earlier reports had noted Trump’s renewed pledge: if Republicans secure control of both the House of Representatives and Senate in the midterms, he will issue a $5,000 "dividend" to every adult U.S. citizen. Based on an estimated 240 million U.S. adults, the plan would cost roughly $1.2 trillion, making it one of the largest economic stimulus measures in the U.S. since the COVID-19 pandemic.
1 seconds ago
Hyperliquid has earned its first USDC reserve revenue of $14.58 million, with an annualized run rate of roughly $193 million at current scale.
Hyperdash co-founder Hans published a post noting that Hyperliquid’s AQAv2 mechanism has established a new revenue stream. On October 3, the AQAv2 treasury wallet completed its first payment of $14.58 million for the USDC reserves held by the trading platform over the prior 30 days. The funds will be allocated to an assistance fund for purchasing HYPE. Under the mechanism, after users bridge USDC to Hyperliquid, Circle mints the corresponding assets on HyperEVM, and charges fees on the treasury balance daily, with settlements occurring every 30 days. Coinbase and Circle each staked 500,000 HYPE; if payments are delayed, Coinbase could lose 2% of its staked amount per day. Hans added that Hyperliquid’s previous revenue was primarily derived from trading fees, while AQAv2 enables the platform to earn income directly from margin deposits themselves, regardless of whether the associated funds are used for trading. The first payment covers the period from August 26 to September 24, with an implied average rate of roughly 3.14%. At current scale, annualized revenue is estimated at approximately $193 million. From January 1 to September 30 this year, Hyperliquid’s open interest rose from $7.72 billion to $16.4 billion, and platform margin increased from $4.34 billion to $7.22 billion. Over the same period, perpetual contracts recorded around $2 trillion in total trading volume, generating $493.3 million in fees for the protocol, equivalent to roughly 2.46 basis points per dollar of trading volume. Using this year’s average trading speed and current AQAv2 rate, every $1 of margin contributes about 15.4 cents in annual revenue to the protocol, split into ~12.5 cents from trading fees and ~2.8 cents from AQAv2. Hans projected that under the baseline scenario of stablecoin volume growing 20% annually and Hyperliquid retaining its current ~8.7% market share, the protocol’s annual revenue could rise from the current ~$1.11 billion to $2.4 billion by the end of 2030.
1 seconds ago
Cronos Token Economy Proposal Passes: 228 Million CRO Burned, All Revenue From Ult and Cronos Launch to Be Allocated for Buyback and Burn
Cronos Network announced that two token economic proposals have been approved, with 228 million CRO from its community pool burned, bringing the total cumulative CRO burn to 428 million. Under the passed proposals, all future revenue from Ult and Cronos Launch will be allocated to repurchase CRO on the open market, which will then be burned monthly, and all related transaction hashes will be made public.
1 seconds ago
A Bitcoin whale has placed a $10.27 million long bet on Bitcoin, targeting a rebound, at an average entry price of $84,918.9.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (handle @ai_9684xtpa), address 0x799…15f4c opened its first position on Hyperliquid, betting on Bitcoin (BTC)’s rebound with 7x leverage. The address initiated a long position of 121.23 BTC in the early hours of today, with the position valued at approximately $10.27 million, an average entry price of $84,918.9, and is currently facing an unrealized loss of around $20,000.
1 seconds ago
Ansem: PUMP can be valued using Layer 1 (L1) logic, and he is optimistic that pump.fun will emerge as a super app in this cycle.
Crypto trader Ansem noted that the market has not yet fully priced in pump.fun’s evolution into a Layer 1 (L1)-like underlying infrastructure, where other token-launching platforms could directly build in the future. Few are currently focused on the creator fee splits pump.fun pays to token creators: the ratio is nearly 1:1 relative to the platform’s revenue, meaning for every ~$500 million the platform generates, token creators receive roughly $500 million in creator fees after their tokens complete the bonding curve phase, giving teams strong incentives to build products on pump.fun. He believes this economic structure may be superior to that of traditional L1s, as pump.fun can collect fees from every layer of token-launching platforms and each token they issue. With the rollout of features like custom trading pairs and Callout Rewards, the market may gradually start valuing PUMP in a manner similar to Layer 1 assets. He also expressed strong optimism about the investment thesis that pump.fun will develop into a "super app" in this cycle.
1 seconds ago
Whales accumulate $PUMP: netherlol buys 383.34M after 1 year, new wallet withdraws 189.22M from MEXC
Whales are buying $PUMP. "netherlol" bought 383.34M $PUMP ($2.4M) after more than a year. A newly created wallet, GnZqfY, withdrew 189.22M $PUMP ($1.18M) from #MEXC 7 hours ago.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
DWF Labs Partner: If Trump wins the midterm elections and distributes $5,000 to every adult, the crypto market may usher in a bull market.
DWF Labs Managing Partner Andrei Grachev stated that if Donald Trump wins the midterm elections and disburses $5,000 to every U.S. adult, the scale would reach 150% of the COVID-19 era’s "helicopter money" program. He noted that a portion of these funds would inevitably flow into the crypto market, potentially triggering a bull run comparable to the 2021 rally. However, Grachev warned that investors should take profits during such a rally, as a crisis could follow. Earlier reports had noted Trump’s renewed pledge: if Republicans secure control of both the House of Representatives and Senate in the midterms, he will issue a $5,000 "dividend" to every adult U.S. citizen. Based on an estimated 240 million U.S. adults, the plan would cost roughly $1.2 trillion, making it one of the largest economic stimulus measures in the U.S. since the COVID-19 pandemic.
1 seconds ago
Hyperliquid has earned its first USDC reserve revenue of $14.58 million, with an annualized run rate of roughly $193 million at current scale.
Hyperdash co-founder Hans published a post noting that Hyperliquid’s AQAv2 mechanism has established a new revenue stream. On October 3, the AQAv2 treasury wallet completed its first payment of $14.58 million for the USDC reserves held by the trading platform over the prior 30 days. The funds will be allocated to an assistance fund for purchasing HYPE. Under the mechanism, after users bridge USDC to Hyperliquid, Circle mints the corresponding assets on HyperEVM, and charges fees on the treasury balance daily, with settlements occurring every 30 days. Coinbase and Circle each staked 500,000 HYPE; if payments are delayed, Coinbase could lose 2% of its staked amount per day. Hans added that Hyperliquid’s previous revenue was primarily derived from trading fees, while AQAv2 enables the platform to earn income directly from margin deposits themselves, regardless of whether the associated funds are used for trading. The first payment covers the period from August 26 to September 24, with an implied average rate of roughly 3.14%. At current scale, annualized revenue is estimated at approximately $193 million. From January 1 to September 30 this year, Hyperliquid’s open interest rose from $7.72 billion to $16.4 billion, and platform margin increased from $4.34 billion to $7.22 billion. Over the same period, perpetual contracts recorded around $2 trillion in total trading volume, generating $493.3 million in fees for the protocol, equivalent to roughly 2.46 basis points per dollar of trading volume. Using this year’s average trading speed and current AQAv2 rate, every $1 of margin contributes about 15.4 cents in annual revenue to the protocol, split into ~12.5 cents from trading fees and ~2.8 cents from AQAv2. Hans projected that under the baseline scenario of stablecoin volume growing 20% annually and Hyperliquid retaining its current ~8.7% market share, the protocol’s annual revenue could rise from the current ~$1.11 billion to $2.4 billion by the end of 2030.
1 seconds ago
Cronos Token Economy Proposal Passes: 228 Million CRO Burned, All Revenue From Ult and Cronos Launch to Be Allocated for Buyback and Burn
Cronos Network announced that two token economic proposals have been approved, with 228 million CRO from its community pool burned, bringing the total cumulative CRO burn to 428 million. Under the passed proposals, all future revenue from Ult and Cronos Launch will be allocated to repurchase CRO on the open market, which will then be burned monthly, and all related transaction hashes will be made public.
1 seconds ago
Ansem: PUMP can be valued using Layer 1 (L1) logic, and he is optimistic that pump.fun will emerge as a super app in this cycle.
Crypto trader Ansem noted that the market has not yet fully priced in pump.fun’s evolution into a Layer 1 (L1)-like underlying infrastructure, where other token-launching platforms could directly build in the future. Few are currently focused on the creator fee splits pump.fun pays to token creators: the ratio is nearly 1:1 relative to the platform’s revenue, meaning for every ~$500 million the platform generates, token creators receive roughly $500 million in creator fees after their tokens complete the bonding curve phase, giving teams strong incentives to build products on pump.fun. He believes this economic structure may be superior to that of traditional L1s, as pump.fun can collect fees from every layer of token-launching platforms and each token they issue. With the rollout of features like custom trading pairs and Callout Rewards, the market may gradually start valuing PUMP in a manner similar to Layer 1 assets. He also expressed strong optimism about the investment thesis that pump.fun will develop into a "super app" in this cycle.
1 seconds ago
Whales accumulate $PUMP: netherlol buys 383.34M after 1 year, new wallet withdraws 189.22M from MEXC
Whales are buying $PUMP. "netherlol" bought 383.34M $PUMP ($2.4M) after more than a year. A newly created wallet, GnZqfY, withdrew 189.22M $PUMP ($1.18M) from #MEXC 7 hours ago.
1 seconds ago
Two whales collectively purchased 572 million PUMP tokens, worth approximately $3.58 million.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, whale "netherlol" has repurchased 383.34 million PUMP tokens for approximately $2.4 million, marking its first purchase in over a year. Additionally, a newly created wallet GnZqfY withdrew 189.22 million PUMP tokens from MEXC 7 hours ago, valued at around $1.18 million.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
The liquidity market is off to a bullish start in October.
After two months of steady growth, the stablecoin market cap is still rising, now hovering above $310 billion. In less than 72 hours, the market has added $1 billion+ in liquidity. At the same time, the overall crypto market cap is also on the rise, suggesting that the overall liquidity is improving heading into Q4.
Against this backdrop, the next moves from the two biggest stablecoin players are worth watching. Tether is officially bringing USDT back to the Bitcoin network via its partnership with Utexo. This could open up another channel for stablecoin liquidity to enter the Bitcoin ecosystem, adding to the broader liquidity expansion that’s already taking place.
Source: X Building on this momentum, Circle is launching cirBTC to enable institutions to put BTC to work on-chain. As a 1:1 wrapped BTC token, cirBTC will enable BTC to be used in lending, borrowing, and overall settlement. The key takeaway? It would allow all this without requiring holders to unwind their underlying Bitcoin exposure.
Combined, Tether’s USDT and Circle’s cirBTC launches are indicative of a broader increase in stablecoin and BTC liquidity on-chain. So, if this liquidity growth persists and stablecoin supply increases in tandem, could deeper DeFi flows define Bitcoin’s Q4 momentum.
Stablecoin growth sets up a liquidity test for Q4 To get a better sense of the implications of this trend, let’s take a step back.
Per RWA Foundation’s report, stablecoin liquidity concluded Q3 on a positive note. Specifically, USDC gained $881 million over 90 days, the largest increase among the major stablecoins. RLUSD followed with $765.3 million in deposits, while the United States’ U gained $474.2 million and USDe gained $419.1 million.
The primary lesson to be learned from these figures is that Circle is continually expanding its liquidity footprint, which makes the upcoming cirBTC launch more intriguing. At the same time, Circle’s recent pivot toward MiCA compliance could boost its status on the European market, providing the company with a powerful edge in the region and an additional source of liquidity for USDC.
Source: RWA Foundation Therefore, if USDC liquidity continues to grow, cirBTC may serve as another channel for capital to flow into Bitcoin and DeFi, making it a significant development to watch in the fourth quarter.
In addition to the above, Tether’s re-introduction of USDT to the Bitcoin network is also a positive sign in that regard. With improved liquidity, both at a macro level and on-chain, this is likely to create demand for Bitcoin and catalyze the Q4 momentum.
TLDR: Bitcoin trades near $84,668, down 1.6% after failing to hold gains near $87,220 on October 3. Analyst Crypto with Haris sees resistance at 86,000-87,000 and a possible drop toward $62,000. BlackRock’s IBIT bought $195.6 million in one day, while Fidelity ETF clients added $29.28 million. September payrolls rose only 29,000 versus 90,000 expected, and unemployment climbed to 4.2%. Bitcoin price hovered near $84,788 on October 3, down 1.6% after failing to hold gains near $87,220. The session low reached $83,888, according to chart data.
Source: CoinGecko
Traders are watching major trendline support, with $83,000 as the next key level if it breaks. Bears expect further downside, while bulls point to steady institutional buying.
Meanwhile, rising liquidations and sideways trading continue to define the market. The asset remains stuck inside a tight range between $83,000 and $87,000.
Bitcoin Price Stays Capped Below $87,000 Bitcoin price action has remained inside a narrow band between $83,000 and $87,000. Buyers pushed the asset to $87,220 earlier, but the rally faded.
Sellers then returned, and the price slipped to a session low of $83,888, just above the $83,000 level. The market has therefore turned choppy.
Analyst Crypto with Haris takes a bearish view. The analyst points to stubborn resistance between $86,000 and $87,000. A rejection from that zone could send BTC down to $62,000. That target lies about $22,700 below the current Bitcoin price.
I told you not to trust these $BTC fake pumps.
$86K–$87K is very strong resistance, and BTC failed to break it multiple times.
This is not how a real bull run looks.
If it were real, BTC would not stay stuck between $83K–$87K for almost 3 weeks.
In a strong bull cycle, small… https://t.co/wZwuHz8vX1 pic.twitter.com/W1LKgxKCCE
— Crypto with Haris ₿ (@Crypto__Haris) October 3, 2026
Meanwhile, charts show a major trendline acting as support. If that line breaks, $83,000 becomes the next key level. Traders are therefore watching the trendline closely. As a result, opinions remain split on the next direction.
Rising liquidations have also accompanied the sideways chop. Even so, bulls have not abandoned their upside case. That case rests on steady institutional buying. Overall, Bitcoin remains in a holding pattern between key support and resistance.
Institutional Inflows and Jobs Data Shape Sentiment Institutional flows remain a key point for bulls. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $195.6 million of buying in one day. Separately, Fidelity ETF clients contributed $29.28 million.
Together, these purchases have fueled hope for a breakout higher. The inflows came amid sideways trading and rising liquidations.
Macro data also shaped a volatile week for Bitcoin. U.S. inflation, growth, and labor data reshaped expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Early in the week, BTC fell to around $82,600 before rebounding sharply. U.S. PCE inflation came in below expectations, while JOLTS data showed weakening labor demand.
The September jobs report drew the biggest reaction. It followed the PCE and JOLTS readings released earlier in the week.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000, well below the 90,000 consensus. Unemployment increased to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed, easing pressure on the Fed to raise rates again.
After the report, BTC surged to around $87,100. The rally faded quickly, and the price returned to $84,500. Weaker rate-hike expectations alone may not sustain a rally.
Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, oil prices, and inflation risks remain key factors. These factors continue to influence the Bitcoin price. The next move may follow a chain: inflation, the Fed, Treasury yields, the dollar, and Bitcoin.
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note has risen to its highest level since 2002, driven by record fiscal deficit spending and persistent inflation. U.S. CPI has exceeded the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target for 60 consecutive months, the longest stretch since the 1980s. Wealth concentration in the U.S. remains extreme: the net worth of the top 1% of U.S. households totals roughly $60.3 trillion, 14.3 times that of the bottom 50% of households. The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen by 23% since 2020. The 24-year high in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield puts direct pressure on Bitcoin, as higher discount rates tend to compress valuations of non-yield-bearing assets. On the flip side, persistent inflation and the dollar’s declining purchasing power could reinforce Bitcoin’s narrative as a hard asset and inflation hedge. The market is currently grappling with two conflicting signals; in the short term, the key question is whether support for BTC from inflation and a weaker dollar, or pressure on risk assets from rising long-dated U.S. Treasury yields, will prevail.
Bitcoin faced renewed selling as the price failed to break through $87,220, triggering a sharp retreat toward the $84,575 level. This pullback emerged after large holders, often referred to as “whales,” offloaded more than 30,000 BTC at the recent local peak, drawing market attention to whether critical support levels will hold.
Heavy whale selling triggers correctionAccording to Ali Charts, a well-followed crypto analyst, Bitcoin’s attempted breakout was stifled before gaining momentum as whales sold approximately 30,000 BTC. At $84,000 per coin, this transaction represented a move of about $2.52 billion. The rejection around $87,000 matched the upper boundary of Bitcoin’s two-week price channel, signaling the likelihood of continued consolidation rather than an immediate rally.
Bitcoin’s surge toward $87,000 faltered quickly, as whales realized profits and brought selling pressure back into the market. The selling corresponded almost exactly with the channel’s upper boundary, a technical level that has repeatedly served as resistance.
The significant exit by these major investors shifted market focus to the support zone near the channel’s lower boundary. Analysts have now identified $82,500 as the key support level that may define the next phase for Bitcoin’s price movement. However, there is not yet clear evidence pointing to renewed accumulation by large holders at this stage.
Support and liquidation clusters converge near $82,500Multiple technical and market indicators suggest a narrow yet critical support region forming between $82,000 and $82,800. The four-hour chart places the lower Bollinger Band at $82,362, while CoinGlass liquidation data highlights notable clusters of liquidations between $82,600 and $82,800, as well as another area close to $82,000.
This confluence of support levels increases the significance of the $82,500 area. However, analysts caution that stabilization in whale balances—meaning a halt to further major selling and potential accumulation—remains essential before buyers can confirm control of the market’s direction.
Mini dictionary: CoinGlass is a derivatives data analytics platform providing real-time insights into crypto liquidations, open interest, and funding rates for various trading pairs.
Until whale accumulation patterns shift and buying returns, the prevailing narrative remains one of caution as technical and behavioral signals cluster around these lower levels.
Support zoneMajor technical indicatorLiquidation clusters$82,500Lower channel boundary$82,600–$82,800, $82,000Sellers near market tops keep pressure overheadGlassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, reported that Bitcoin’s rebound attempts will likely face continued resistance above $87,000. Many investors who bought between six and twelve months ago have an average cost basis near $89,000, while those from one to two years ago are anchored around $97,000. With prices sitting below both levels, these groups have continued to sell as they near break-even points.
Glassnode noted that buyers from the 2025 rally period are recording their highest daily selling volumes so far this year, further adding to the ongoing selling pressure above the current range. Conversely, more recent entrants during the last market decline have not yet engaged in significant selling activity.
BTC holders who purchased at prior tops are now offloading their coins, with notable daily volumes. As long-term holders realize gains, overhead supply could persist near $89,000 and $97,000.
A recent Glassnode report found that long-term holder realized profit doubled in the week ending September 29, jumping from 34% to 55% of total profit realized, supporting the view that established investors continue profit-taking near local highs. For Bitcoin to recover from this setback, analysts stress that whale accumulation must resume and support in the low $82,000s should remain intact.
BlackRock has expanded its position in the cryptocurrency market by adding $1.57 billion in Bitcoin to its portfolio over the past month, bringing its total holdings to 801,769 BTC. This increase follows a series of substantial inflows into the company’s flagship spot Bitcoin ETF.
Strategic accumulation amid positive momentumRecent data from Arkham Intelligence indicates that BlackRock has consistently acquired Bitcoin during most ETF trading sessions in the last month. The latest addition of $195.6 million worth of BTC followed a sharp rebound in Bitcoin’s price, which climbed above $84,000. This market uptick appears to have reignited institutional demand for the asset.
In light of this surge, a sequence of large transactions was observed, with Bitcoin moved in batches of 300 BTC from a Coinbase hot wallet to an address linked to BlackRock. These transfers were highlighted as part of BlackRock’s effort to bolster its Bitcoin reserves.
Arkham Intelligence data highlights that after the latest $1.57 billion in purchases, BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings rose to 801,769 BTC, now valued at about $67.87 billion based on current market prices.
Bitcoin dominance in BlackRock’s crypto portfolioBlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, has continued to attract substantial capital, further strengthening the company’s role as a major player in the Bitcoin ETF landscape. The firm’s aggressive Bitcoin acquisitions reflect growing investor confidence in the asset class during recent market rallies.
The firm’s tracked crypto portfolio is dominated by Bitcoin, which makes up more than 87% of its total holdings. According to current data, Ethereum is the next largest component, accounting for $10.06 billion of BlackRock’s $77.93 billion in digital assets.
Bitcoin now represents the most significant portion of BlackRock’s holdings, while Ethereum trails as the second-largest position in its expansive crypto portfolio.
Efficiency and institutional demand shape new investor toolsAs institutions increase their exposure to crypto with moves like BlackRock’s latest purchases, rapid price changes driven by events such as central bank decisions or the listing of popular alternative coins reinforce the need for efficient portfolio management tools. In this environment, smart investors are seeking unified platforms to stay ahead. In a market where a single Fed decision or a sudden altcoin listing can change everything in seconds, jumping between different apps for charts, news, and portfolio tracking is costing investors money. Smart traders are now utilizing privacy-first tools like CryptoAppsy to consolidate everything. Without even the hassle of creating an account, you get real-time charts, smart price alerts, coin-specific news, and critical macro data all on one screen.
With major players like BlackRock significantly increasing their exposure to Bitcoin, the wider market’s focus has increased on tools that offer a comprehensive and real-time overview of crypto assets, enabling both institutional and individual participants to navigate this rapidly evolving landscape efficiently.
James E. Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington-Altus, evaluating Bitcoin’s long-term technical outlook, stated that the medium-term trend in the cryptocurrency market has turned bullish again, and the current structure presents a very strong outlook.
According to Thorne, Bitcoin’s weekly chart currently points to one of the strongest technical setups in the market. He notes that Bitcoin retreated to the rising 200-week moving average during the correction after its 2025 peak, but managed to hold above this level, arguing that the long-term uptrend has never been broken.
The analyst noted that following the low seen in June, the 30-week and 40-week exponential moving averages shifted from a downward to an upward trend. The fact that the Bitcoin price has also risen above these averages again indicates, according to Thorne, that the medium-term outlook has shifted from bearish to bullish. He added that weekly momentum indicators also support the price movement and that no negative divergence has formed.
Thorne argued that not only the technical outlook but also the market structure in which Bitcoin operates is changing. He stated that developments in GENIUS regulations and tokenization are beginning to move Bitcoin and the broader digital asset ecosystem beyond being merely a speculative market, integrating it into the infrastructure of the financial system.
Thorne, noting the increasing prevalence of regulated stablecoins, tokenized US Treasury bonds, and on-chain consensus systems, believes these developments could create a different and more structural demand for Bitcoin than in previous market cycles. For this reason, the analyst has characterized the current period as a potential “supercycle.”
Thorne also pointed to the four-year US presidential cycle, saying that historically, stock markets are entering their strongest performance period.
Thorne, arguing that the macroeconomic outlook is also beginning to shift in favor of Bitcoin, stated that while there are signs of improvement in productivity, wages, and employment in the manufacturing sector, inflationary pressure has eased despite the supply shock created by tariffs and rising oil prices. The analyst, who claims that the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy in this environment is a mistake, suggests that markets have already begun pricing in the aftermath of this process.
Thorne stated that the current outlook points to a very strong bullish scenario for Bitcoin, considering that Bitcoin has maintained its long-term moving average, medium-term averages have turned upward again, structural demand has strengthened, and macroeconomic conditions have become supportive.
*This is not investment advice.
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Strategy’s (NASDAQ: MSTR) large Bitcoin holdings now sit at the center of a capital-markets operation that raises fresh dollars and distributes regular, dollar-denominated income to preferred investors, while common shareholders retain leveraged exposure to further coin accumulation.
In a September 29, 2026 explanation of the firm’s “Digital Credit” approach, executive chairman Michael Saylor described how Strategy treats Bitcoin as long-duration capital and then engineers a separate income product from that base.
Common equity, traded as MSTR, is positioned as amplified Bitcoin exposure plus ownership of the credit business itself.
Preferred shares, led by the variable-rate Stretch instrument known as STRC, are designed instead to damp price swings, shorten effective duration, and deliver a dollar yield.
The two offerings are linked: more of Bitcoin’s volatility is directed toward the common stock, which helps support a steadier income claim for preferred holders.
Because Bitcoin itself produces no conventional cash flow, the company separates its dollar balances by purpose.
A dedicated USD Reserve is reserved for preferred dividends and interest on outstanding debt, so near-term payment obligations are not mixed with funds available for other uses.
A broader USD Cash account can be deployed for Bitcoin purchases, debt retirement, preferred or common buybacks, and other capital decisions.
The split is meant to show clearly which dollars are already earmarked for obligations and which remain available for allocation.Capital is raised and retired on both sides of the structure.
Issuing common shares can add Bitcoin without creating a new senior payment claim, or it can bring in dollars to bolster reserves or retire existing claims.
Management weighs each issuance against dilution and long-term value per share. STRC supply is managed in both directions as well.
When the preferred trades above its stated amount and the economics are attractive, additional shares can be issued.
When it trades below that level, repurchases can retire shares and their future dividend obligations at a discount.
Neither tool is presented as a guaranteed price floor; both remain discretionary and subject to liquidity, cost, and other restrictions.
Seniority is managed across the full stack. Debt ranks ahead of preferred equity.
Among the preferred series, STRF sits senior to STRC, while STRK, STRE, and STRD rank junior. Issuing, pausing, refinancing, or retiring any layer changes the assets behind STRC, the claims ahead of it, and the cash required to service the structure.
Dividend-rate decisions are made inside the same system: a higher rate may draw demand, but it also raises the payment burden, so the company can respond with buybacks, larger reserves, or changes in issuance instead of rate moves alone.
Strategy has also proposed shifting US-listed preferred dividends to a daily accrual schedule, with declared amounts payable on the next business day, if stockholders approve.
The change would shorten the gap between earning income and receiving cash; it would not create daily redemption rights or guarantee principal.
Saylor frames the overall discipline as stripping volatility from the credit investor’s experience, compressing duration through rate flexibility and payment timing, and extracting a dollar yield from Bitcoin capital that itself pays no coupon.
The stated aim is to keep building the Bitcoin position through ongoing capital raises while maintaining the dollar liquidity and claim structure needed to support preferred income.
