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The SEC has approved the first 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the United States, paving the way for more highly leveraged bitcoin trading products linked to regulated futures markets.

SEC Clears Six 3x Leveraged ETFs The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved a Cboe BZX rule change on October 2 that allows Volatility Shares to list six triple-leveraged exchange-traded products. The lineup includes 3x Bitcoin, 3x Ether, 3x gold, 3x silver, 3x crude oil and 3x natural gas funds.

The Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will not hold BTC or ETH directly. Instead, the products will use regulated futures contracts, including CME-linked contracts, to target three times the daily move of their respective benchmarks.

The tracked futures benchmark could thus generate approximately 3% increase before fees and other costs for a 1% daily gain. A 1% run could result in a 3% loss, and losses would be more significant if markets were moving against the position.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Still Await Launch The SEC approval does not mean the funds can begin trading immediately. Volatility Shares still needs its Form S-1 registration statements to become effective before brokers can offer the new ETFs to investors.

There is no estimated date for a launch. The approval comes after Volatility Shares previously launched leveraged cryptocurrency funds such as a 2x Bitcoin and 2x Ether product.

The returns on a leveraged ETF can vary from three times Bitcoin or Ethereum’s wider price action over multiple days, since the effect is reset daily in a leveraged ETF. Volatility and rebalancing daily can also lower returns, as prices fluctuate rapidly both upward and downward.

SEC Crypto Policy Continues to Expand The leveraged ETF move arrives as U.S. regulators keep adjusting regulations pertaining to digital resources. The SEC recently released crypto guidelines that encompass staking receipt tokens and other digital asset arrangements.

Discussions regarding adviser crypto custody and tokenized securities have been related regulatory changes. CoinGape recently reported on filings by OKX and ICE that involve tokenized NYSE stocks under an SEC innovation framework.

Meanwhile, the Treasury has also pulled back plans to regulate crypto mixers, and the SEC has mentioned an innovation exemption for tokenized securities.

The new 3x Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will not be available for trading until their registration statements are definitively effective.

For more, compare rewards, lock-up terms, and regulations across the best crypto staking platforms 2025 today.

Bitcoin ETFs notch third inflow week as Ether ETFs shed $138MBitcoin ETF inflows reached a third straight week, while Ether ETFs swung to outflows and Zcash funds posted their first weekly outflow.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a third consecutive week of net inflows as Ether ETFs flipped back to net outflows.

Bitcoin ETFs attracted $241.1 million last week, lifting cumulative net inflows to $57.8 billion, according to SoSoValue data.

The funds added $2.4 billion and $6.2 million the two preceding weeks, with year-to-date net inflows now at around $1.2 billion.

Ether ETFs recorded $138 million in weekly net outflows after attracting $690 million the week before. Year-to-date net inflows stood at about $1.5 billion, according to SoSoValue data.

Bitcoin traded at about $86,200 at the time of publication, up 3.7% over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko. Ether traded at about $2,727, up 3% over the same period.

Among other altcoin ETFs, Zcash funds posted their first weekly outflow on record, shedding around $94 million, while Solana and XRP ETFs extended their inflow streaks with $2.4 million and $4.7 million, respectively.

Crypto market sentiment also softened. Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in “Greed” territory at 70, down from 74.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted a third consecutive week of net inflows, while Ether ETFs moved back to net outflows over the same period.

Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract inflowsAccording to data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $241.1 million in net inflows last week. This brought their total cumulative net inflows to $57.8 billion.

In the two previous weeks, the funds attracted $2.4 billion and $6.2 million, respectively. Year-to-date, Bitcoin ETFs have brought in approximately $1.2 billion in net inflows.

Bitcoin traded near $86,200, showing a 3.7% price increase over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko.

Bitcoin ETFs amassed $241.1 million in net inflows last week, pushing total net inflows to $57.8 billion, based on SoSoValue’s data.

Ether ETFs registered $138 million in net outflows for the week, following a previous weekly inflow of $690 million. Year-to-date figures indicate Ether ETFs have attracted about $1.5 billion in net inflows, as reported by SoSoValue.

Ether traded around $2,727, gaining 3% in the past week.

Mixed results in altcoin ETFsAmong other altcoin ETFs, Zcash funds experienced their first-ever weekly outflow, losing close to $94 million. In contrast, Solana ETFs continued their streak of inflows with $2.4 million, and XRP ETFs saw an inflow of $4.7 million for the week.

Mini dictionary: Zcash, a privacy-focused cryptocurrency, uses cryptographic techniques such as zero-knowledge proofs to enable confidential transactions on its network.

ETFWeekly Net Inflow/OutflowYear-to-Date Net InflowBitcoin$241.1 million inflow$1.2 billion inflowEther$138 million outflow$1.5 billion inflowZcash$94 million outflowN/ASolana$2.4 million inflowN/AXRP$4.7 million inflowN/AMarket sentiment and index updateOverall crypto market sentiment saw a modest decline. Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in “Greed” territory with a score of 70, down from 74 previously.

Crypto funds saw uneven movements as Bitcoin maintained steady inflows, Ether reversed to outflows, and altcoin ETFs showed mixed performance.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) are flashing short-term sell signals as one prominent analyst points to a recent "Sunday pump, Monday dump" pattern.

Sunday Pump, Monday Dump?Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez noted on Monday that Bitcoin’s Sunday rallies were followed by Monday pullbacks, while Sunday declines were followed by rebounds.

The pattern, which persisted from Aug. 29 through Sept. 28, puts another potential Monday pullback in focus.

Technical indicators back up the pattern:

The TD Sequential has flashed a sell signal on BTC’s four-hour chart. Each of the previous four comparable signals was followed by a price correction. Ethereum is showing the same four-hour sell signal, with its previous two signals followed by declines of 5.40% and 3.31%. Solana has also triggered a four-hour TD Sequential sell signal. Its previous three comparable signals preceded corrections of 2.44%, 5.76% and 5.30%. But Long-Term Targets Stay Bullish…While Martinez sees near-term correction risk, his longer-term technical outlook remains bullish for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

Bitcoin’s two-year rising channel puts its previous high near $125,000 as the first major test, Martinez highlighted on Sunday. A decisive breakout could bring the channel’s upper boundary near $190,000 into focus as a potential cycle target.

Ethereum faces resistance near $5,000 on its longer-term channel, with a breakout potentially targeting $8,800.

Solana’s monthly chart, meanwhile, appears to be forming a cup-and-handle pattern.

A monthly close above the $295 neckline could strengthen the bullish case, with the pattern projecting a potential target near $2,750.

…As October Starts Stronger Than UsualOn Oct. 5, CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin has outperformed during what has historically been October’s weakest three-day stretch.

Bitcoin slipped just 0.14% from Oct. 1 through Oct. 3, versus the historical average decline of 0.66%. It traded near $85,132 on Oct. 4, up 1.86% from September’s close.

The resilience follows a strong September, when Bitcoin gained 6.39% versus its historical average decline of 4.02%.

Image: Shutterstock

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© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Bitcoin approaches resistance as Ethereum and XRP recover, while Sui advances and Cardano gains nearly 11%. Key crypto levels to watch for October 5, 2026.

Asset Price 24-hour change Aggregate 24-hour volume Rank Bitcoin $86,081 +1.49% $20.60 billion 1 Ethereum $2,716.43 +0.81% $7.49 billion 2 XRP $1.51 +1.39% $1.42 billion 5 Sui $1.23 +4.83% $827.00 million 25 Cardano $0.269078 +10.78% $838.82 million 16 Bitcoin MACD Improves Below $87,330 Resistance Bitcoin’s completed October 4 daily candle opened at $84,743, reached $86,737 and closed at $86,515—a 2.09% advance. The close returned BTC to the upper part of its recent range but did not clear resistance between $87,086 and $87,330.

BTC Price Analysis 2026 10 05 On the completed four-hour candle ending October 5 at 00:00 UTC, MACD using 12, 26, and 9 exponential periods reached 374.95, above its 277.40 signal line. The histogram expanded to 97.54 from 22.61.

This confirms improving short-term momentum, but not a price breakout. BTC price needs a daily close above $87,330 to confirm range expansion toward the upper-$88,000 region and $89,000. A rejection followed by a close below $84,441 would invalidate the immediate bullish setup and reopen $83,898, followed by $82,580–$82,950.

Ethereum Holds Above Its Bollinger Midline Ethereum’s price October 4 candle closed at $2,726.64 after trading between $2,686.33 and $2,736.97. The 1.48% daily rise left ETH above the $2,647.91 midline of its daily Bollinger Bands, calculated with a 20-day simple moving average and two population standard deviations.

ETH Price Analysis 2026 10 05 The upper band stands near $2,852.76 and the lower band near $2,443.06. ETH remains inside that envelope, making the setup constructive but not a confirmed breakout.

A daily close above $2,737–$2,768 would strengthen the case for a move toward $2,787–$2,804. The upper band would become the next dynamic reference if momentum persists. A close below $2,635 would weaken the structure, bringing the Bollinger midline and $2,610–$2,583 back into focus.

XRP Reclaims Its 20-Day Moving Average XRP closed October 4 at $1.52 after trading from $1.49 to $1.53. The close was 2.01% above the open and remained above the rising 20-day simple moving average at $1.466.

XRP Price Analysis 2026 10 05 The moving-average recovery improves the short-term structure, although the completed candle stopped at the lower edge of resistance. XRP needs a daily close above $1.56 to confirm a break of the $1.53–$1.56 supply zone. That would shift attention to $1.61 and $1.66.

A close below the 20-day average—and especially below $1.45—would invalidate the recovery and expose $1.41, followed by $1.37. XRP remains range-bound until one of these closing conditions is met.

Sui Holds the First Fibonacci Retracement Sui’s completed October 4 candle advanced 2.54%, closing at $1.21 after testing $1.26.

SUI Price Analysis 2026 10 05 The Fibonacci map uses the upward swing from the September 15 low of $0.675641 to the September 27 high of $1.29. This places the 23.6% retracement at $1.1450, the 38.2% level at $1.0553, the midpoint at $0.9828, and the 61.8% retracement at $0.9103.

Price has held above the first retracement, preserving the recovery structure, although $1.26–$1.29 remains unbroken resistance. A completed daily close above $1.29 would confirm a breakout. Only after that confirmation would the 1.272 extension near $1.4571 become a conditional upside reference.

A daily close below $1.1450 would invalidate the immediate bullish setup and expose $1.0553, followed by $0.9828. The live $1.23 quote remains an intraday observation rather than completed-candle confirmation.

Cardano RSI Rises but Price Still Needs a Closing Breakout Cardano produced the strongest rolling move in this five-asset group. Its completed October 4 candle rose 6.40%, opening at $0.243888 and closing at $0.259507 after reaching $0.267926.

ADA Price Analysis 2026 10 05 The 14-period four-hour RSI, calculated with Wilder’s smoothing, increased to 64.48 on the completed candle ending at 00:00 UTC, up from 57.91. Momentum improved without entering the conventional overbought region above 70.

ADA’s live quote of $0.269078 was above the October 4 high at the cutoff, but that intraday move was not yet a confirmed closing breakout. A daily close above $0.2679, with follow-through through $0.2750, would confirm continuation.

A reversal below $0.2585 would weaken the attempt, while a close below $0.2425 would invalidate the immediate recovery and expose $0.237–$0.230.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $241 million in net inflows for the trading week ending October 2, 2026. That makes three positive weeks in a row.

BlackRock does the heavy lifting The headline number hides a lopsided week. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) took in $450 million on its own, according to data compiled largely from SoSoValue, with additional tracking by Farside Investors.

That brings IBIT’s cumulative figure to $65.73 billion. It remains the clear heavyweight of the group, and this week it outperformed the entire category’s net total by a wide margin.

ARK 21Shares’ ARKB added a more modest $25.52 million. The fund’s cumulative total now sits at $1.4 billion.

Fidelity’s FBTC had the opposite experience. It posted the largest outflows of the week, shedding $168 million, though its cumulative asset base still stands at $10.9 billion.

Do the arithmetic and something stands out. IBIT and ARKB together brought in more than the week’s net total, even after FBTC’s losses, which implies the remaining funds were net negative as a group.

The bigger picture: assets, market share and a rebound Total net assets across all spot Bitcoin ETFs reached approximately $108.89 billion. That figure represents 6.42% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.

Cumulative net inflows since the funds launched in January 2024 now total approximately $57.79 billion.

Earlier in 2026, the sector absorbed heavy redemptions, leaving a net outflow deficit of about $5.8 billion by mid-July. The recovery started in August and picked up speed in September. The week ending September 25 delivered a record inflow of $2.4 billion, and the positive trend has now carried into October.

Compared with that $2.4 billion week, $241 million is a step down. Still, the direction matters more than the size for a market that spent months watching money walk out the door.

What to watch from here The concentration in IBIT says something about how returning money behaves. If IBIT keeps absorbing the bulk of new money while others see redemptions, the headline numbers may overstate how broad the renewed appetite really is.

At 6.42%, ETF holdings are large enough that sustained buying or selling through these vehicles can influence the broader market’s supply and demand balance. Steady inflows could help support prices, but a return to heavy redemptions would put the same mechanism into reverse, as the first half of the year demonstrated.

For now, the data tells a fairly simple story. After a rough start to 2026, money is flowing back into spot Bitcoin ETFs, cumulative inflows have recovered to approximately $57.79 billion, and BlackRock remains the main beneficiary of that return.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Bitcoin Faces Make-or-Break Resistance at $87,200

Bitcoin price has begun October near $85,000 after a weak U.S. jobs report lifted hopes that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged this month. A return to the high $90,000s requires more than a policy pause: sustained spot demand must absorb selling as investors reassess inflation. A break below $82,000 would instead put September’s lower trading range back in view.

Summary

Bitcoin traded near $85,360 in an October 5 CoinGecko snapshot after briefly clearing $87,000 on October 2. U.S. payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, while unemployment stood at 4.2%, the Labor Department reported October 2. The Federal Reserve meets October 27 and 28, before September’s PCE inflation release on October 29. A $95,000 to $100,000 upside scenario requires roughly 11% to 17% from an $85,360 reference price. A $76,000 to $80,000 downside scenario requires a decline of roughly 6% to 11% from the same reference. Bitcoin has started October above $85,000 after a September employment report strengthened the case for a pause at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on October 2 that nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 in September and unemployment was 4.2%. BTC briefly traded above $87,000 after the report, then settled back toward the mid $80,000s. The spot response, the fund flows that follow it and inflation data still to come will determine whether the jobs driven rally extends.

An October 5 CoinGecko price snapshot showed BTC near $85,360, about $1.72 trillion in circulating market value and roughly $14.4 billion in 24 hour reported volume. The price moves as markets trade; the range calculations here use that dated quote only as a common starting point. The October close could be well outside any range visited during the month.

The jobs report changed the rate question, not the answer Hiring slowed markedly in September. The official employment release showed 29,000 jobs added, with unemployment at 4.2%. A softer labor report reduces one argument for another immediate rate increase, but does not cancel inflation above the Fed’s objective. Investors were already weighing whether September’s hike should be followed by a pause or by further tightening later in the year.

The Fed’s October meeting calendar lists a two day meeting on October 27 and 28, with the decision and press conference on the second day. The meeting is a dated event, not a promised pause. Officials can leave rates unchanged and still signal concern about later inflation. Conversely, a surprise increase could tighten financial conditions even if traders had expected no move.

Bitcoin rose after the jobs release. An earlier account of the payroll reaction placed its intraday high above $87,000 and discussed short liquidations. The sequencing establishes a market response, not an inventory list of buyers. Traders covering bearish derivatives, investors buying spot bitcoin and funds creating new shares can all contribute at different hours. One event can start a move without supplying the demand needed to sustain it for another four weeks.

The next inflation test arrives before the Fed meets. The BLS schedule sets September consumer price inflation for October 14 and producer prices for October 15. The Fed will have those reports and other data before its decision. The October 2 payroll release already belongs to the starting conditions, so repeating its surprise in late October would mistake old information for a new catalyst.

The most important inflation release arrives after the Fed The Bureau of Economic Analysis schedule places September personal income and outlays, including the Fed’s preferred PCE price index, on October 29. The FOMC decision is on October 28. That one day ordering creates two distinct market tests: the rate statement and press conference first, then fresh PCE evidence about inflation a day later.

In its August personal income and outlays report, BEA reported a 0.3% monthly rise in headline PCE and a 0.2% rise in core PCE. A September number has not been published as of October 5. Claims that the October 28 decision will incorporate the September PCE release as a known figure are chronologically wrong. Policymakers have other price reports and their own information, but not that scheduled publication.

This distinction changes the best case. A pause with a reassuring statement could help risk assets on October 28. If PCE the following morning points to persistent inflation, traders may quickly reprice the outlook for December even without a change in the October policy rate. A benign PCE print could reinforce the pause by reducing concern that tightening resumes soon. Neither direction is guaranteed by the calendar alone.

It changes the worst case too. A hawkish statement on October 28 could pressure BTC, followed by a softer PCE report that partially reverses the move. Or a quiet meeting could precede a hotter inflation release and higher yields. An October price prediction based solely on whether the Fed hikes or holds leaves out the last data shock before month end.

The Fed’s interest rate is one input to bitcoin’s price, not a mechanical valuation formula. A lower expected path for rates can make cash and bonds less attractive relative to some risky assets. A rise in Treasury yields or oil may work in the opposite direction. BTC has no contractual coupon, and policy expectations act through investor positioning, liquidity and risk appetite. The effect needs to be observed in price and flows rather than asserted from a single employment print.

JUST IN: Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer says Bitcoin has entered a new bull market

Timmer says $BTC successfully held the $60,000 level and his long-term model points to a potential $300,000 target by 2029. pic.twitter.com/WahLSnHCuB

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) September 26, 2026 ETF inflows need to survive the first Monday after payrolls U.S. spot bitcoin funds were an important source of demand during parts of September. Farside’s daily fund table records a $148.7 million net outflow on September 30, followed by a $102.7 million inflow on October 1. Summing those two settled entries gives a $46.0 million net outflow across the pair. That is a narrow window, not a verdict on all of October.

Some live aggregators displayed different October 2 totals during the October 5 review. One showed a Friday inflow of roughly $190 million, while the visible Farside row showed a smaller subtotal with a major fund entry unreported at the time checked. A missing constituent should not be treated as zero, and incompatible snapshots should not be combined into a single precise figure. The defensible comparison in this piece stops at the confirmed September 30 and October 1 rows. Refresh a complete October 2 series, with its timestamp and fund coverage, before publication if the full day is central to a final update.

Fund flow is not identical to exchange turnover. Investors can trade existing shares without the fund creating or redeeming underlying exposure. A net inflow generally points to additional fund shares and corresponding activity under the product’s creation process, but the timing of market makers’ hedges need not match the minute of a BTC spot move. Daily flows are better suited to testing whether investors kept adding exposure after a rally than to naming the buyer in the first hour after the jobs report.

The arithmetic provides a scale check. At $85,360 per coin, $102.7 million corresponds to about 1,203 BTC at that price. This division is an illustrative dollar equivalence, not an issuer statement about the exact number of coins acquired on October 1. $148.7 million corresponds to about 1,742 BTC at the same reference price. Treating the two dollar totals as a net 539 BTC sale would still be approximate because bitcoin traded at different prices on the two days and fund operations have their own cutoffs.

Prior reporting on strong weekly ETF demand put one late September week at $2.39 billion of net inflows. Its date matters. It shows that fund buyers had recently committed substantial capital; it does not prove they bought the October 2 payroll move. A sequence of verified daily inflows during the October 5 week would be stronger evidence for the upside case than reusing a September total.

A $95,000 to $100,000 best case asks for new demand For the upper scenario, bitcoin first needs to keep the post payroll move and reclaim the high $80,000s. The round $90,000 threshold is a trading marker, not a switch that forces more purchases. $95,000 to $100,000 is an illustrative October closing range if verified fund creations continue, inflation reports ease fear of another near term hike and spot buyers hold exposure after short covering subsides.

The percentage test makes the claim concrete. From $85,360, $95,000 is $9,640 higher, or 11.3%. $100,000 is $14,640 higher, or 17.2%. Bitcoin traded near a 2026 peak around $97,867 earlier in the year in prior market reporting, so the upper range asks for a retest of a known trading region and then a possible move beyond it. Historical prints do not make that move likely; they tell a reader what needs to be regained.

The price level is only one part of validation. Several consecutive sessions above $90,000 with positive, complete fund flow data would differ from an intraday spike followed by a retreat. Spot volume on major venues and the mix of futures open interest help identify whether the move is accompanied by exposure that remains after the initial squeeze. Falling open interest in dollars during a price rally can signal contract closures, but coin denominated positions and liquidation records are needed to interpret it. Increasing open interest is not proof of net long demand because every contract has a short side.

Citi recently raised its 12 month bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000, according to reporting on the revised forecast. A 12 month bank forecast cannot be imported as an October target. Its investment case, based partly on expected ETF inflows, is a credible reason to test whether fund demand returns this month. October fund redemptions or a failure to hold the October 2 breakout would weaken that argument even if the longer dated view remained intact.

JUST IN: Citi raises its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113K and Ethereum to $3,028

The bank points to renewed recent SEC rulemaking, ETF inflows, and Treasury buybacks as key factors behind the updated forecasts. pic.twitter.com/H0v93ydMBB

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) October 1, 2026 An October 28 pause would support this path most clearly if Treasury yields did not climb on the accompanying language and October 29 PCE did not revive tightening expectations. Higher BTC with weaker net fund flow and renewed leverage would be a less convincing confirmation than higher BTC with persistent cash demand. The upside case is invalidated by repeated failures below $90,000 and a sustained slide through $82,000, particularly if the deterioration occurs alongside fund redemptions.

A $76,000 to $80,000 worst case has a visible route The downside range is grounded in bitcoin’s September trading area. Crypto.news previously reported analysts watching $82,000 as a level that could separate consolidation from a renewed drop. A later market assessment identified $80,000 and the roughly $75,000 to $76,000 September base beneath it. These are analyst markers and historical trades, not orders guaranteed to stop a selloff.

From $85,360, an $80,000 close is down $5,360, or 6.3%. A $76,000 close is down $9,360, or 11.0%. The scenario requires a sustained loss of $82,000, followed by failure to recover $80,000. Fund outflows, higher yields, a stronger dollar or renewed leveraged selling could reinforce it. Each is separately observable; the narrative should not claim all caused a decline without matching their timing to the move.

There is a stronger bearish interpretation than simply expecting a disappointing Fed meeting. The jobs report might signal slower growth that reduces risk taking even if it lowers the chance of a rate hike. Meanwhile, inflation can stay high enough to prevent an easing cycle. A market facing weak growth and sticky prices has less reason to assume a Fed pause will bring cheaper money soon. The October 14 CPI and October 29 PCE figures can test that tension more directly than employment alone.

The lower bound is illustrative, not a maximum possible loss. A liquidity shock can carry BTC below a prior base. The downside case weakens if bitcoin reclaims $87,000 to $90,000 and holds there with renewed spot demand and confirmed fund creations. It is not invalidated just because one volatile intraday candle touches $82,000 and reverses. The test is sustained trade, fund data and the macro response.

Bitcoin’s reported $14.4 billion in daily turnover is gross exchange activity across tracked markets. It does not mean $14.4 billion of new money arrived or left. Sellers and buyers exchange the same coins; a marginal trade reprices the wider supply. Large price moves can occur on much smaller net flows when market depth is thin, especially around scheduled U.S. data and the Fed statement.

The middle path can be volatile without breaking the range An $80,000 to $95,000 October closing band covers a meaningful range around the October 5 reference. Its lower edge is 6.3% beneath $85,360, and its upper edge is 11.3% above it. Bitcoin can cross $90,000 intraday, retreat after CPI and still close inside the middle band. Equally, a brief dip below $82,000 would not establish a monthly downside close if buyers return before October 31.

The middle case assumes payrolls slow enough to keep a pause plausible, inflation remains unsettled, and net fund demand fluctuates without a decisive streak. That is an interpretation of currently mixed evidence, not an estimate derived from a probability distribution. A sustained recovery above $95,000, backed by several verified fund inflows, would argue against it. Repeated closes below $80,000 would argue against it in the other direction.

This approach avoids attributing a price band to the calendar itself. Historically, October has produced both strong and weak bitcoin months, and the average for a named month cannot account for the October 2026 sequence of payrolls, inflation, a Fed meeting and changing fund flows. The order and content of this month’s releases are observable. A seasonal label is not a substitute for them.

The month end options market adds another dated measurement. A Deribit sourced expiry calendar collected early on October 5 displayed roughly $10.63 billion of BTC inverse options open interest for October 30, of which about $7.60 billion was calls and $3.03 billion puts. The $4.57 billion difference is not $4.57 billion of net buying. Contracts can be spreads, hedges or parts of other positions, and their dollar value changes with bitcoin’s price. The snapshot is one product set on one exchange, not all global bitcoin options.

The October 30 expiry follows both the Fed decision and scheduled September PCE release. Traders could adjust protection or directional exposure around those events. Open interest by strike, changes in positions and actual settlement are required before saying an expiry will pin BTC to a price or force purchases. A large nominal stock of contracts is not the same as cash changing hands at settlement.

Market capitalization is not the money needed to hit a target CoinGecko’s October 5 snapshot placed bitcoin’s circulating value around $1.72 trillion at roughly $85,360 per coin. Dividing one figure by the other implies around 20.1 million BTC in circulating supply, subject to rounding and the platform’s supply definition. Applying that constant coin count to the endpoints yields roughly $2.01 trillion at $100,000 and $1.53 trillion at $76,000. The difference between those endpoints is around $482 billion in quoted circulating value.

No one needs to spend $482 billion for bitcoin to move between the two prices. Market capitalization multiplies the last quoted coin price by the supply. The last trade can reprice coins that did not change hands that day. Nor does a $100 billion rise in fund assets necessarily represent $100 billion in new investor purchases; the funds’ existing BTC holdings gain value when the spot price rises.

The calculation is useful because it disciplines language about scale. At $100,000, the same circulating supply would be worth roughly 17% more than at $85,360, which matches the per coin percentage change. If a trader claims the $100,000 case requires precisely $290 billion in ETF purchases, the claim confuses an asset’s repricing with net fund flows. Conversely, a relatively modest ETF inflow cannot by itself guarantee a 17% move without knowing available sell orders, hedging and demand on other venues.

Fund flow and mining supply operate on separate clocks. Miners receive new BTC under bitcoin’s programmed schedule and can sell, retain or hedge it. U.S. ETFs report net creations and redemptions by trading day. A comparison between the two requires a defined period, observed issuance and a current fund series. Turning a daily dollar inflow into a fixed number of BTC using one quote, then calling the remainder a structural shortage, would overstate precision.

Price, fund flows, derivatives and macro releases together can support a conditional scenario. None alone identifies the marginal buyer or guarantees a close in a specified band.

What October evidence can invalidate the forecast The upside range fails as an October closing scenario if BTC ends the month below $95,000. Its mechanism becomes less credible earlier if $90,000 repeatedly rejects price or fund flows reverse after the jobs driven advance. A $100,000 intraday print followed by a close below $95,000 would not satisfy the proposed endpoint even though it shows the market visited the target.

The downside range fails if the October close stays above $80,000. Its causal account would weaken if CPI and PCE cool, yields ease, complete ETF tables show continuing net creations, and BTC holds $87,000 to $90,000. A brief flush below $80,000 that is bought back is a different observation from a sustained monthly break.

Several limits remain. A market quote is a dated snapshot. Fund totals may revise as providers add delayed issuer data. Options positions do not reveal the holder’s full hedge. Macro news can coincide with price movement without being its sole cause. The three ranges describe possible October 31 closes, with conditions, and assign no numerical probability to outcomes that depend on information not yet released.

The final scheduled U.S. macro report in the sequence is BEA’s September PCE on October 29, followed by the October 30 options expiry. The October employment report is scheduled for November 6, according to the BLS release calendar, so it cannot be an October catalyst.

What to watch October 14 CPI: Compare September headline and core readings with market expectations and the resulting Treasury yield response.

ETF creations and redemptions: Use a complete, timestamped daily table; check whether inflows persist after the October 2 payroll reaction.

October 27 and 28 Fed meeting: Separate the rate decision from guidance about subsequent meetings and Treasury market reaction.

October 29 PCE: Assess the release after the Fed decision, not as information policymakers already had on October 28.

October 30 options expiry: Recheck open interest and strike concentrations before drawing conclusions from the early month $10.63 billion snapshot.

FAQ What is the Bitcoin price prediction for October 2026? The conditional upside closing range is $95,000 to $100,000, the middle range is $80,000 to $95,000, and the downside range is $76,000 to $80,000. These are scenario markers anchored to an October 5 price reference and recent trading, not probability weighted targets.

What was Bitcoin’s starting price in this analysis? The CoinGecko snapshot used here was roughly $85,360 on October 5. BTC changes continuously, so the percentages should be recalculated from the publication price if it moves materially.

What could push Bitcoin to $100,000 in October? From $85,360, $100,000 requires a rise of about 17.2%. Sustained spot buying, verified ETF creations and inflation data that reduce pressure for further near term tightening would support that case.

What is the worst case for Bitcoin this month? The illustrative downside closing range is $76,000 to $80,000. It requires a sustained break beneath $82,000, failure to regain $80,000 and corroborating weakness in spot demand or macro conditions.

When does the Fed decide rates in October? The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27 and 28, with its decision and press conference scheduled for October 28. A pause is a market expectation, not a result known on October 5.

Does the Fed have September PCE before its October meeting? No. BEA scheduled the September personal income and outlays report for October 29, one day after the October FOMC decision. September CPI is scheduled earlier, on October 14.

Do ETF inflows prove Bitcoin will rise? No. Flows measure net fund demand under a provider’s reporting conventions, while selling elsewhere can absorb it. A daily total may be incomplete until all fund entries are reported.

Are the best and worst cases financial advice? No. Each range is a conditional illustration with price and event tests that could invalidate it. The October 31 close is the endpoint used here. This is educational analysis, not investment advice.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Figures reflect regulatory filings and reporting available at the time of writing and change with each disclosure. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or asset. Always do your own research. Information is accurate as of October 5, 2026.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: To The Moon and Back, $87K Rally Canceled Bitcoin (BTC) presales

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BTC’s push toward $87,000 has run into sellers again. Bitcoin is trading at $85,500 after reaching as high as $87,000, which moves its price prediction bullish. The key question now is whether this is a routine rejection or evidence that the rally needs to reset before another attempt.

Bitcoin briefly climbed within $500 of its late-September peak near $87,400, then reversed below $86,000. It is the second rally in a week to stall near that zone; last Wednesday’s move to $85,500 also faded within hours.

This mix leaves BTC with short-term momentum, but no confirmed breakout. ETF demand and upcoming U.S. inflation data could shift the balance; first, prices need to show that buyers can absorb supply overhead.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Reclaim $87,000 This Week?Bitcoin’s latest rejection puts the $86,000–$87,000 band back in focus. A sustained daily close above $87,000 would be an initial sign that buyers are gaining ground; $88,000 remains the more consequential breakout threshold. The current price of $85,500 is below both levels, so the rally is not confirmed.

Trading volume is estimated at about $22 billion over 24 hours, with the market cap slowly climbing near $1.72 trillion. These figures show substantial activity, but volume alone does not establish that resistance has been cleared. Near-term support sits around $82,000, with the $84,000 area also part of the recent range. A Bitcoin price outlook likewise frames resistance and catalysts as conditions for an extension.

The scenarios are relatively clear. Bull case: BTC reclaims $87,000 and closes above $88,000, strengthening the breakout signal. Base case: price remains range-bound between roughly $82,000 and $87,000 as traders wait for macro data. Bear case: another rejection sends BTC toward $84,000 or $82,000; a loss of support would weaken the recovery thesis.

The October 14 U.S. CPI release matters because hotter inflation could lift rate expectations and pressure risk assets, while a softer reading could give buyers room. What would turn a test into a breakout? A daily close, not another intraday spike.

Trade XRP on Bybit and Get a Chance to Win Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop

Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as Bitcoin Tests Key LevelsBitcoin has not lost its broader market relevance, but repeated failures near resistance temper the near-term upside. At a market capitalization of around $1.72 trillion, even a strong BTC advance may offer less percentage upside than an early-stage project.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is a Bitcoin Layer 2 project combining the Solana Virtual Machine with Bitcoin-focused infrastructure. It aims to bring faster, lower-cost smart contracts to the Bitcoin ecosystem while preserving Bitcoin’s security and trust.

The project is the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with SVM integration, and lists a decentralized canonical bridge for BTC transfers alongside low-latency transaction processing.

The current presale price is $0.0136872, with $33.1 million raised. Staking at a high 30% APY, only for early buyers.

Research Bitcoin Hyper and review its terms and technical claims before the presale ends.

Discover: The Best Token Presales

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds experienced notable volatility between September 28 and October 2, as shifting institutional interest resulted in rapid changes in fund flows and Bitcoin price movements at the start of the fourth quarter.

Significant ETF inflows and outflows mark the weekSpot Bitcoin ETFs began the week on a positive note, registering $31 million in net inflows on September 28, followed by an additional $66.2 million the next day. This trend reversed on September 30, with net outflows totaling $148.7 million. The majority of these withdrawals originated from Fidelity’s FBTC, which saw $125.6 million leave the fund. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced $9.5 million in outflows, and Bitwise’s BITB reported outflows of $13.6 million.

The ETF landscape shifted again on October 1, driven by a $195.6 million inflow into BlackRock’s IBIT. This strong demand countered significant withdrawals from other products, including $60.7 million from FBTC and $31.4 million from Grayscale’s GBTC.

These substantial flows reflect ongoing competition among major asset managers, including Fidelity, BlackRock, Grayscale, and Bitwise, as they vie for dominance in the emerging US spot Bitcoin ETF market.

ETFSept. 30 OutflowOct. 1 Inflow/OutflowFidelity (FBTC)$125.6 million-$60.7 millionBlackRock (IBIT)$9.5 million+$195.6 millionBitwise (BITB)$13.6 millionNot specifiedGrayscale (GBTC)Not specified-$31.4 million Over the volatile period, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded both significant outflows—led by $125.6 million in FBTC withdrawals—and rapid inflows, such as the $195.6 million added to BlackRock’s IBIT, underscoring the changing landscape of institutional demand in Bitcoin-linked products.

Bitcoin price action reacts to ETF flows and Fed expectationsThe fluctuations in ETF demand closely mirrored movements in the price of Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency traded near $84,500 at the start of September 28, briefly declining to $82,600 before closing near $83,500 the same day. During the days of ETF outflows, Bitcoin hovered around $83,500 through month-end.

A renewed rally emerged at the beginning of October as inflows returned. Bitcoin surged past $87,000 temporarily on October 2, a move coinciding with renewed investor optimism that the Federal Reserve might maintain a measured approach to interest rate changes. Despite losing a portion of these gains by the close of Friday’s session, Bitcoin remained resilient over the weekend.

Prices held above $84,000 on Saturday and climbed further on Sunday, reaching an intraday peak near $86,770 before ending the day at approximately $86,480. This movement left Bitcoin up about 2.7% compared to its open on September 28, weathering the sharp ETF inflow and outflow swings during the week.

Institutional support, as reflected in the ETF flows, continues to play a key role in shaping price trends and market expectations for spot Bitcoin and related investment products.

President Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser has called for former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to leave the central bank’s board, opening another debate over the Fed’s policy direction weeks after officials raised interest rates for the first time in three years.

Summary

Trump adviser Kevin Hassett has called for Jerome Powell to leave the Federal Reserve board after an internal watchdog report cited management failures tied to its headquarters renovation. Powell remains an FOMC voter despite leaving the Fed chair role in May, meaning his departure could give Trump another opportunity to nominate a governor. Any benefit for Bitcoin would depend on whether Powell’s eventual replacement changes expectations for interest rates rather than his departure alone. Markets have cut expectations for another rate hike in October after weak September payroll data, while another increase remains possible later in the year. Bitcoin has recovered despite September’s Fed rate hike, supported by renewed spot ETF inflows even as high Treasury yields remain a source of pressure. According to Bloomberg, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures that it was time for Powell to “move on” after an internal watchdog report found management problems tied to the renovation of the Federal Reserve’s Washington headquarters.

“I think that it’s time for him to move on and to respect the independence of the Fed,” Hassett said when asked whether Powell should resign.

President Trump separately called for Powell to be “forced to resign from the Board” following the report, continuing pressure on the former chair after repeatedly pushing the central bank to lower borrowing costs during Powell’s tenure.

For Bitcoin, Powell’s position matters because he remains a member of the Federal Open Market Committee even after Kevin Warsh replaced him as Fed chair in May. A departure would create a vacancy on the seven member Board of Governors that Trump could nominate someone to fill, subject to Senate confirmation.

Any effect on Bitcoin would depend less on Powell leaving by itself and more on whether his eventual replacement changes expectations for where interest rates go next.

Powell remains a vote on Fed interest rate decisions Powell stayed on the Board of Governors after his term as chair ended in May, breaking with the usual practice of former Fed chairs leaving the central bank after handing over its leadership.

His continued presence means Powell retains a vote on monetary policy. The Fed currently lists him among the 12 voting members of the FOMC alongside Warsh and other governors and regional Fed presidents.

If Powell resigns before his term as governor expires, Trump would be able to nominate a successor to serve the remaining portion of the term. Senate confirmation would be required before the nominee could take the seat.

The personnel question comes less than three weeks after the FOMC unanimously raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4% on Sept. 16.

Hassett told Fox News that he disagreed with the decision but respected Warsh for making it for what he considered the right reasons.

Bitcoin initially struggled around the September meeting before recovering. As crypto.news previously reported, BTC eventually climbed past $87,000 after the hike as spot Bitcoin ETF demand returned and corporate purchases provided another source of buying.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $746.3 million across Sept. 15 and Sept. 16 before recording roughly $2.65 billion of net inflows during the five sessions through Sept. 23. Strategy bought another 950 BTC for $75.7 million between Sept. 14 and Sept. 20.

Bitcoin’s recovery did not remove the rate risk. A second Fed hike was identified by HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun as a bigger threat to BTC than delays to the CLARITY Act, with Treasury yields, ETF flows and derivatives leverage among the factors he was watching.

Could Powell leaving the Fed benefit Bitcoin? Powell’s departure alone would not guarantee lower interest rates or provide an immediate liquidity boost for Bitcoin.

Trump would first have to nominate a replacement, and that person would need Senate confirmation. The eventual effect would depend on the new governor’s monetary policy stance and how their addition changes voting within the FOMC.

Trump has repeatedly favored lower borrowing costs, while Warsh and the rest of the FOMC backed September’s rate increase as inflation remained above the central bank’s 2% target.

Rate expectations have moved in Bitcoin’s favor since then without any change to the Fed’s membership.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said last week that policymakers may need more time before deciding on another rate move, while New York Fed President John Williams indicated another hike could still be needed but was not urgent.

Markets subsequently cut expectations for an October rate increase. The probability of another hike this month had fallen to around 18% by Oct. 5, while traders continued to price a much higher chance of an increase in December.

Bitcoin responded to the softer October outlook. BTC briefly crossed $87,000 on Oct. 2 after September nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000, well below forecasts, strengthening expectations that policymakers could pause rate hikes at their Oct. 27 to Oct. 28 meeting.

The cryptocurrency was trading near $86,000 over the weekend after closing Sept. 30 around $83,600.

Past price action this year has repeatedly shown Bitcoin reacting to changes in the expected path of Fed policy. In July, BTC climbed above $65,000 after weaker producer inflation reduced expectations for another rate increase, while Warsh’s more hawkish signals have previously put pressure on the cryptocurrency.

Treasury yields remain a hurdle for Bitcoin A more dovish Fed outlook could help Bitcoin if it brings Treasury yields lower and reduces the return available on interest bearing assets, but the bond market has not fully followed the decline in October rate hike expectations.

U.S. Treasury yields remained high entering the new week, while the dollar strengthened despite September’s weak employment report.

Long term yields have been particularly stubborn. The 10 year Treasury yield recently moved above 5.3%, keeping financial conditions tight even as investors became less convinced that the Fed would raise rates again in October.

High yields have remained one of the main macro pressures facing Bitcoin. Investors can earn larger returns from government debt without taking the volatility associated with crypto, while rising yields can tighten financial conditions across risk assets.

Bitcoin has still shown that demand can offset part of that pressure. The cryptocurrency’s recovery following September’s hike came as ETF inflows returned, showing that the relationship between Fed tightening and BTC has not been one directional.

A September rate hike analysis had already identified institutional demand as a possible factor that could soften the traditional pressure higher rates place on crypto, even if tighter monetary policy continued to raise the cost of holding risk assets.

The next immediate test comes from the Fed’s October meeting. Weak September payroll growth has reduced the case for another move this month, but inflation remains above target and markets still expect another rate increase could arrive before the end of the year.

Powell, meanwhile, has said threats of criminal investigations into him and the Federal Reserve left him with little choice but to remain on the board.

The Justice Department said Friday it would not reopen a criminal investigation based on the Fed inspector general’s findings. The watchdog found no evidence of criminal wrongdoing or administrative misconduct connected to the $2.4 billion headquarters renovation, though it identified management deficiencies that contributed to the project running well above its original cost.

Attorney General Todd Blanche said an independent audit could still lead to an investigation if it uncovers evidence of criminal conduct, while the Fed has said an outside auditor will review the renovation costs.

Bitcoin Traders Brace for These 4 Key Macro Events This Week

Ether posted a roughly 70% gain in Q3 2026. Bitcoin managed about 42% over the same stretch. On paper, it was a strong quarter for ETH liquidity advocates.

But CoinGecko’s 2026 Crypto Liquidity on CEXs report tells a more complicated story. Even as price surged, median daily market depth for ETH fell to just 35–45% of Bitcoin’s.

That compares with at least 60% in the same period a year earlier. CoinGecko called the drop stark.

Order-Book Depth Fell Even as Prices Climbed Market depth measures the dollar value of limit orders resting inside a tight band around the mid-price.

CoinGecko tracks the 0.15% band, roughly ±$3 on ETH at current prices. Inside that band, ETH liquidity settled at $13 million to $14 million per exchange. Most venues still held more than $1 million per side, so the token remains tradable.

The problem is relative size. Bitcoin’s own books strengthened: median aggregate depth reached about $29 million on the bid and $37 million on the ask. That is roughly 50% higher than 2025 readings, with Binance leading both assets.

Understanding exactly how order-book depth is measured inside a price band helps explain why this gap matters more for large investors than retail traders.

A $10–15 million clip that cleared the tight band last year now consumes a far larger share of visible depth. Slippage risk is higher, quietly, without a price chart showing it.

MEXC was the clear outlier among the eight exchanges CoinGecko surveyed, with depth near $450,000. Every other venue cleared $1 million per side.

Still, the gap versus Bitcoin is the headline number. One asset got deeper books. The other got a higher price.

SOL and XRP tell adjacent stories. Solana’s near-price depth inside a ±2% band fell from about $28 million to roughly $20 million.

XRP held near $30 million total, skewed toward the bid at $18 million versus $14 million on the ask. XRP spot volume, covered in detail when

XRP spot volume exploded to $1.36B as price jumped 7%, underscores why XRP’s depth holds despite a market cap roughly 40% larger than SOL’s.

SOL still trades about 25% more volume on average, which keeps its depth comparatively thin. This is not a broad altcoin collapse. It is asset-specific, and ETH’s relative deterioration is the standout.

Why Institutional Buyers Should Read This Before Sizing In Institutional appetite for ETH has not cooled. Citi raised its 12-month Ethereum target to $3,028, citing recovering ETF demand and improved on-chain fundamentals. Corporate buyers have followed suit.

Bitmine’s holdings topped 6 million ETH after a series of structured buys that pushed the firm into the top tier of institutional holders.

That kind of treasury buying lifts spot price. It does not continuously replenish CEX limit orders, which helps explain why books thinned even as the coin rallied.

Perpetuals also played a role. ETH liquidity in the futures market shifted notably when ETH flipped BTC in Hyperliquid open interest ahead of the Glamsterdam upgrade.

Capital rotating into perps stays off CEX spot books. That rotation, combined with concentrated treasury buying, is a plausible explanation for the depth-price split.

ETH liquidity is not broken, but it is thinner than the price chart alone suggests. That is the catch buried in an otherwise impressive Q3.

Whether that changes in Q4 depends partly on whether ETF creations rebuild the 0.15% book and whether longer-term Ethereum price targets flagged by Peter Brandt draw fresh market-maker inventory. Binance remains the anchor.

Ethereum’s standing in the liquidity rankings has taken a meaningful hit. A CoinGecko analysis of order-book depth across eight major centralized exchanges shows Ethereum’s median market depth sitting at $13 to $14 million, which puts it at just 35 to 45% of Bitcoin’s liquidity. A year ago, Ethereum was holding above 60% of Bitcoin’s level.

Bitcoin’s order book is doing a lot of heavy lifting Bitcoin’s median aggregate depth has reached $29 million on the bid side and $37 million on the ask side, roughly 50% higher than the figures recorded in 2025. Order-book depth in this analysis is measured at approximately 0.15% from the mid-price, translating to about $100 on either side for Bitcoin and $3 for Ethereum.

Binance leads liquidity for both assets across the exchanges studied. At the other end of the spectrum, MEXC’s liquidity sits at approximately $450,000, making it a clear outlier in the dataset.

Why the gap widened The contrast isn’t just that Ethereum got worse. It’s that Bitcoin got substantially better while Ethereum’s liquidity remained roughly flat in absolute terms. That combination mechanically pushes the ratio down.

Increased institutional interest in Bitcoin, partly channeled through spot exchange-traded products, is one plausible driver of the deeper order books on the Bitcoin side. Ethereum, despite its own spot ETF approvals, has not attracted the same scale of order-book commitment.

What traders and investors should watch The gap between Ethereum’s liquidity and Bitcoin’s is now wide enough to influence how large trades get structured. Algorithmic traders and institutions that slice orders across venues will need to account for Ethereum’s shallower book, particularly during periods of elevated volatility when spreads tend to widen further.

For context, the Traders Union report covering this data was published on September 30, 2026. The dynamics it captures reflect a market structure that has been shifting steadily rather than breaking in a single moment.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Ether had a great quarter. Its order books did not.

Ethereum’s native token posted a gain of nearly 70% in the third quarter of 2026, comfortably beating Bitcoin’s roughly 42% climb. But a CoinGecko analysis, cited by CoinDesk on October 5, 2026, found that the liquidity underneath that rally got noticeably thinner as prices rose.

A big rally on a shallower foundation The CoinGecko data covers the period from July 6 to September 30. Over that stretch, ether outpaced Bitcoin by close to 28 percentage points on price.

CoinGecko measured median daily market depth within ±0.15% of the mid-price. By that measure, ETH’s depth now sits at only 35% to 45% of Bitcoin’s equivalent level. In the comparable period of 2025, that ratio was at least 60%.

In absolute terms, ETH’s depth in that tight band averaged around $13 to $14 million across the major exchanges studied. The analysis drew on data from eight major centralized exchanges.

Most major trading venues still maintained more than $1 million in depth on both the bid and ask sides. Retail traders buying or selling modest amounts are unlikely to notice much difference.

With less money parked near the current price, big orders have to reach further up or down the book to get filled, which pushes the price around more than they might like.

Why this pattern is unusual Normally, rising prices and climbing trading volumes go hand in hand with deeper liquidity. Ether’s third quarter broke that pattern. Prices rose, volumes increased, and depth still contracted relative to Bitcoin.

Ether is not alone in this. CoinGecko found that Solana showed a similar decline in liquidity over the period. XRP went the other way. Its total depth held steady, with the balance tilted predominantly toward buyers.

On price, ether closed the quarter near $2,689 after touching intraday highs near $2,775. Bitcoin ended the period trading between $83,640 and $86,000, depending on the cutoff used.

What may have powered the move The research points to returning inflows into US spot ETH ETFs as a likely driver of the rally. Net inflows reached approximately $3.1 billion, a reversal after outflows earlier in the year.

ETF demand can push prices higher without necessarily adding depth to the exchange order books that CoinGecko tracks. Fund flows and resting limit orders are not the same thing.

What this means for traders and the market Thinner books mean higher slippage, the gap between the price you expect and the price you actually get. A trade of a given size in ETH is now more likely to nudge the market than an equivalent trade in BTC.

Desks executing big ETH orders may need to split trades into smaller pieces, spread them across venues, or stretch them out over time.

Shallow books can amplify rallies, because buyers chew through sell orders quickly. They can amplify selloffs for exactly the same reason.

The Solana parallel is worth watching. If thinning liquidity is showing up across several major non-Bitcoin assets at once, it raises the question of whether market makers are concentrating their capital more heavily in BTC. The XRP exception shows the trend is not universal.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Zcash (ZEC): ZEC is correcting after September's explosive rally, with $1,280-$1,330 serving as key support and $1,400-$1,450 as the first major recovery target.Bitcoin (BTC): BTC remains bullish while consolidating near $85,000, with a breakout above $87,000 potentially targeting $89,000-$90,000.Shiba Inu (SHIB): SHIB is challenging long-term resistance around $0.0000056-$0.0000057, with a sustained breakout potentially opening the way toward $0.0000062 and beyond.Binance Coin (BNB): BNB maintains a bullish structure near $800, with a breakout above $805 potentially extending the rally toward $820-$850.Zcash cools off after SeptemberZcash is undergoing its first serious correction after an extraordinary September rally. ZEC currently trades around $1,330 on the supplied daily chart after reaching approximately $1,680 near the September peak. Broader market data confirms the scale of the retracement: ZEC has lost roughly 20% over the past week after gaining more than 180% over three months. 

ZEC/USDT Chart by TradingViewTechnically, the pullback has brought ZEC directly into an important short-term support area. The $1,280-$1,330 region has now attracted buyers several times, while the short-term moving average is flattening near current prices. However, momentum has deteriorated considerably. The daily RSI has retreated toward neutral territory after remaining elevated through much of September.

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The first major upside objective is $1,400-$1,450. Reclaiming this zone would suggest that the correction is stabilizing and could open another attempt at $1,500 and eventually the $1,600-$1,680 peak. Conversely, a decisive breakdown below $1,280 would expose approximately $1,150-$1,200, where the next major moving average is approaching.

Fundamentally, ZEC also has a near-term catalyst: the NU7 public testnet is scheduled for October 6, although the proposed faster block times will not reach mainnet immediately. 

For now, ZEC remains in a powerful longer-term uptrend, but the September parabolic phase has clearly ended. The immediate question is whether $1,300 becomes a consolidation floor or merely a temporary stop during a deeper correction.

Bitcoin: $85,000 becomes the key battlegroundBitcoin is consolidating around $85,000 after its late-September breakout, with recent market data placing BTC close to this level. The supplied daily chart shows a substantially healthier structure than ZEC: BTC remains comfortably above all major moving averages while RSI holds above the midpoint.

BTC/USDT Chart by TradingViewThe critical short-term resistance remains $86,000-$87,000. BTC has repeatedly entered this area but failed to establish a sustained breakout, including a recent move above $86,000. A daily close above $87,000 would therefore represent an important technical confirmation and could put $89,000-$90,000 within reach.

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On the downside, the first meaningful support sits around $83,000-$84,000. Buyers have repeatedly defended this region during the latest consolidation. Below it, approximately $82,000 becomes the more important structural level, followed by the rising moving-average cluster around $78,000-$79,000.

The broader setup consequently remains bullish while BTC stays above $82,000. Unlike ZEC, Bitcoin is not correcting from an extreme vertical advance; it is consolidating near recent highs. That makes a break of the current $83,000-$87,000 range the clearest signal for BTC's next directional move.

Shiba Inu bulls test long-term resistanceShiba Inu is attempting to turn its recent recovery into a larger trend reversal, but SHIB has reached one of the most important resistance areas on its daily chart. The token currently trades around $0.00000570, following a late-September rally that briefly pushed it above $0.00000620.

SHIB/USDT Chart by TradingViewThe most significant development is SHIB's interaction with its long-term moving average around 0.0000056-0.0000057. This level has acted as resistance for months, meaning a sustained move above it would substantially improve the technical structure. SHIB has already broken above its shorter moving averages, which are now turning upward beneath the price.

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However, momentum has stalled after the latest advance. RSI sits around the mid-50s rather than entering overbought territory, leaving room for another move higher but providing little evidence of immediate acceleration. Declining volume following the late-September surge also suggests buyers have become less aggressive.

The first resistance zone lies at 0.0000059-0.0000060. Breaking it would put the September high around $0.0000062 back into play. Beyond that, approximately 0.0000065-0.0000067 represents the next substantial target.

Support sits around $0.0000055, followed by the moving-average cluster near 0.0000052-0.0000054. Losing that cluster would weaken the recovery considerably and could return SHIB toward $0.0000050.

SHIB therefore has an improving setup, but it still needs to prove that the long-term resistance breakout can hold.

$800 remains the main BNB barrierBinance Coin continues to display one of the cleaner bullish structures among major cryptocurrencies. BNB trades around $788 after recovering from its latest pullback, leaving the asset within striking distance of the psychologically important $800 level.

The daily chart remains firmly constructive. BNB trades above every major moving average shown, while the shorter averages continue rising sharply. More importantly, the price has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since the July bottom around $550.

BNB/USDT Chart by TradingViewBNB briefly traded above $800 during September before sellers forced a retreat toward $760. Buyers subsequently defended that area and have now pushed the price back toward the highs. RSI around 60 also indicates positive momentum without showing extreme overbought conditions.

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The immediate challenge is the 795-805 resistance zone. A convincing daily breakout above $805 would establish another higher high and could open the path toward $820, followed by approximately $850 if momentum expands.

On the downside, 765-770 is the first important support area. Below it, the rising short-term moving average around $755 provides another potential defense. The more consequential support cluster sits near 720-730, where two intermediate moving averages are converging.

As long as BNB remains above $760, the current structure favors another test of $800. A breakout would confirm continuation; repeated rejection around $800 would instead increase the probability of a broader consolidation.

@BlackRock has been on a significant $BTC buying spree. According to on-chain data tracked by @Arkham, the asset management giant accumulated a net total of approximately $1.57 billion worth of Bitcoin over the past month through its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT).

A Single Friday Adds Nearly $200 Million The pace of buying has been striking at times. The Friday purchase is consistent with the pattern of ETF-driven flows, where new investor capital is deployed into the market on a near-daily basis.

Holdings Now Top 800,000 BTC

The scale of IBIT's growth underscores how quickly institutional capital has moved into regulated Bitcoin products since their U.S. launch in January 2024. For now, BlackRock shows little sign of slowing its pace of accumulation.

Sources:
KuCoin: BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Purchases $1.57 Billion in Bitcoin Over the Past Month
Bitcoin.com News: BlackRock Drives $103M Bitcoin ETF Rebound as BTC Price Tops $86K
U.Today: Over $1.5 Billion in Bitcoin Tops BlackRock Holdings in One Month

TLDR: Ki Young Ju says the Bitcoin bear market ended this summer and a new cycle is in its early stage.  Inflows to Accumulation Addresses have risen sharply, and the 30-day average has also turned higher.  MVRV has stayed far below the 4 to 5+ peaks of past cycles, pointing to milder euphoria and capitulation.  Bitcoin is shifting from a retail and OG whale market toward ETFs, institutions and custodians.  Bitcoin bear market conditions ended this summer, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He shared the view on Bitcoin Magazine’s YouTube program BMTV.

Ki said the market has entered the early stage of a new cycle. He expects a rise of three to five times from the lows.

According to him, fresh capital is entering, early whale selling is easing, and large futures traders have rebuilt long positions near the bottom.

On-Chain Signals Behind the Outlook During the program, Ki Young Ju pointed to three on-chain signals behind his Bitcoin bear market outlook. He said the PnL Index 365-day moving average remains soft for now. Even so, he noted that broader profitability and valuation metrics are approaching important inflection points.

Next, Ki discussed Accumulation Addresses. He said inflows to these addresses have risen sharply. In addition, he observed that the 30-day average has also turned higher.

Together, these readings point to fresh capital entering the market. Ki described this rise as a clear sign that new buyers are arriving.

Ki then addressed the MVRV ratio. He explained that it looks far less extreme than in earlier cycles. Previous peaks reached 4 to 5 or higher.

By contrast, he said this cycle has stayed much lower. As a result, Ki believes both euphoria and capitulation are becoming milder.

He also spoke about large holders. According to Ki, selling by OG whales is easing. Meanwhile, he said large futures players have rebuilt long exposure near the bottom. Taken together, he cited these developments as support for the end of the Bitcoin bear market.

Market Structure Shifts Toward Institutions On the subject of ETFs, Ki said flows are improving. However, he stated that the identity of the end buyers remains unclear.

For that reason, he argued that custodial flows matter more at this stage. Without clear buyer data, he sees custodial flows as a key reference point.

Beyond the data, Ki described a broader change in market structure. He said Bitcoin is moving away from a market led by retail traders and OG whales.

Instead, ETFs, institutions, and custodians increasingly shape the market. Ki added that macro conditions and regulation also play a growing role.

Earlier cycles were driven mainly by retail participants and early holders. Today, Ki says a wider group of participants shapes the market.

Consequently, he places more weight on custodial flows than before. ETF inflows and custodian balances therefore receive closer attention.

Ki framed the discussion around three questions. Who is buying? Who has stopped selling? Is fresh capital still coming in? He treats these as the main points to watch after the Bitcoin bear market.

IMF Approves $138M for El Salvador After Bitcoin Accumulation Waiver

Ki Young Ju, Chief Executive Officer of CryptoQuant, has stated that Bitcoin‘s bear market conditions ended during the summer, marking the beginning of a fresh cycle in the cryptocurrency market. Speaking on Bitcoin Magazine’s BMTV program, Ki explained that new inflows and changing on-chain data indicate an early-stage upswing for Bitcoin, with expectations of a potential three to five-fold rise from recent lows.

On-chain activity and market recovery signalsKi identified three major on-chain signals supporting his view. Firstly, he pointed to the 365-day moving average of the Profit and Loss (PnL) Index, noting that while it remains relatively soft, important profitability and valuation metrics are nearing key turning points. According to Ki, this suggests the groundwork for a new growth phase is forming.

Secondly, inflows to Accumulation Addresses are rising significantly. The 30-day average for these addresses has also moved higher, indicating that fresh capital is entering the ecosystem.

Ki described the increased inflows to Accumulation Addresses as a clear sign of new buyers coming into the market, reinforcing the shift away from the earlier bearish period.

Accumulation Addresses are wallets that have never spent any received Bitcoin and have a balance above a minimum threshold. These addresses are typically used to identify investors who are consistently adding to their holdings and can signal changing sentiment among market participants.

Mini dictionary: Accumulation Address, a Bitcoin wallet controlled by a single entity, used for gradually increasing holdings, often seen as a bullish sign when balances rise steadily over time.

Thirdly, Ki examined the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. He remarked that, unlike prior cycles where MVRV hit extremely high peaks around 4 to 5 or above, the current cycle’s ratio has remained much lower. He interprets this as evidence that both euphoric highs and moments of capitulation are more muted compared to previous cycles.

MVRV RatioPrevious Cycles PeakCurrent Cycle LevelMarket Value to Realized Value (MVRV)4 to 5+Far below prior peaksKi also addressed changes among large Bitcoin holders, noting that the selling pressure from early investors, often called OG whales, is easing. He mentioned that large futures traders have rebuilt long positions near previous market bottoms, which supports the end of bearish sentiment.

Institutional transformation of the Bitcoin marketThe shift in Bitcoin’s market structure is becoming more visible, according to Ki. While ETFs are now recording improved flows, the identity of end buyers remains uncertain. For this reason, he said that monitoring custodial flows is currently more informative than tracking ETF participant data.

He emphasized that custodial flows have become a critical reference point, as they offer insight into how much institutional activity is influencing Bitcoin’s landscape, especially while ETF buyer details are limited.

CryptoQuant, the blockchain data provider headed by Ki Young Ju, supplies on-chain analytics and metrics to institutional and retail traders worldwide. The company is recognized for its detailed reports on digital asset market trends and investor behavior.

Ki observed that Bitcoin’s market has transitioned away from dominance by retail traders and early large holders to one in which ETFs, major institutions, and professional custodians take on greater influence. He attributed this change to the maturing landscape, shifting regulation, and macroeconomic factors.

In previous bull runs, retail sentiment and actions from “OG whales” had an outsized impact on price trends. Ki now believes a broader and more diversified investor base is shaping the current cycle.

He concluded that three focal questions remain for market watchers: who is driving new purchases, who has stopped selling, and whether the influx of fresh capital will persist as the new cycle unfolds.

Bitcoin open interest has dropped across major exchanges as the cryptocurrency retests the $87,000 level, with analysts observing signs of cooling market momentum and deeper sell-offs.

Open interest declines on major exchangesOver the past 30 days, the structure of Bitcoin’s price and derivatives activity has begun to mirror prior local tops, according to analyst FundingVest from Cryptoquant. The analyst shared recent data showing notable declines in open interest across key trading venues.

Binance, which operates as one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges globally and serves as a barometer for market sentiment, recorded a 6% drop in Bitcoin open interest over this period. FundingVest highlighted that this drop indicates a loss in the volatility balance the market sustained throughout the month.

Deribit, regarded as the dominant platform for cryptocurrency options trading, saw an even sharper decline. The exchange’s open interest contracted by 15%, a move FundingVest interpreted as a sign of position unwinding and reduced risk appetite in the market.

Gate.io matched Deribit’s decrease, reporting a 15% fall in open interest. The analyst linked this to both lighter trading volume and lower volatility expectations across the platform. Other exchanges recorded only small decreases, with the greatest changes concentrated on these three venues.

Sharp declines in Bitcoin open interest on Binance, Deribit, and Gate.io signal a clear cooling-off phase, especially as this pattern often emerges at the distribution stage near local market tops.

The cumulative effect points to shifting market dynamics and possible uncertainty among derivatives traders.

ExchangeOpen Interest Change (30 days)Binance-6%Deribit-15%Gate.io-15%Historical parallels to earlier market pullbacksFundingVest compared today’s setup to earlier periods when Bitcoin experienced significant corrections. Patterns on the 30-day charts align closely with those from January 2026 and May 2026, when Bitcoin retraced by about $10,000 during market pullbacks.

In those periods, contractions in open interest also marked the final stages of local uptrends. FundingVest observed that similar market behavior is forming as Bitcoin now fluctuates near $87,000, hinting at familiar dynamics seen during previous peaks.

The ongoing contraction in open interest alongside a stalling price typically marks the onset of distribution phases, with such set-ups preceding sizeable downdrafts in earlier cycles.

FundingVest noted that the drop in derivatives market participation, particularly on leading exchanges, offers a useful window into the potential depth and persistence of the current retracement.

These observations have reinforced the status of Binance, Deribit, and Gate.io as key reference points for study during periods of high volatility and shifting trader sentiment.

As Bitcoin trades close to $87,000, continued selling and declining momentum have left the market at a precarious juncture. Both price action and derivatives data now indicate reduced risk-taking among investors, keeping open interest as one of the main indicators to watch going forward.

Trump taps intel chief Jay Clayton to lead new Super Intelligence ForcePresident Donald Trump has named Jay Clayton, US director of national intelligence, to lead the country’s new Super Intelligence Force, according to a post on Truth Social on Sunday.

The announcement followed media reports on Friday of the appointment. Cointelegraph reported Sept. 20 that Trump planned to create an “AI Force” modeled after the Space Force and appoint an artificial intelligence czar.

“The Super Intelligence Force is tasked with coordinating the effort of the Federal Government to ensure that America continues to lead the World in Super Intelligence,” Trump wrote in his post.

Source: Clayton led the Securities and Exchange Commission during Trump’s first term and launched a prosecution against Ripple for selling securities on his last day in office, and as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York led the criminal trial against Roman Storm for his involvement in Tornado Cash. Storm commented:

“It doesn’t look like we’re headed toward a future that supports open-source AI.”Trump’s good buddy Elon Musk is renaming SpaceXAI to SpaceXSI to honor the President’s directive renaming “artificial intelligence” to “superintelligence.”

Source: Roman Storm

NEAR Intents hack has a happy endingNEAR has been riding a wave of positive sentiment lately and has more than doubled in price over the past month. This week it received praise in some quarters — and criticism in others — after its SHIELD AI system blocked Bitget’s hacked funds from its INTENTS cross chain swaps platform. Its Bitwise ETF debuted this week with almost $60 million of inflows.

SHEILD also helped to halt a $3.8 million exploit of NEAR Intents due to a “bug in the Omni deposit and withdrawal infrastructure interaction with NEAR Intents smart contract.”
Sentiment flipped bearish for about seven and a half minutes, until NEAR Intents general manager Alex Shevchenko posted like a boss “we have identified you, sir” and issued a 48 hour ultimatum to return the funds or to presumably face the full force of the law.

“You know better than most how responsible disclosure works — this is the last window to use it. After 48 hours, that window closes.”The funds were duly returned, and Shevchenko urged other exploiters thinking of LARPing as white hat hackers to “use bug bounties instead of disrupting the services.”

The move to block Bitget’s stolen funds was controversial however and in stark contract to THORChain which has refused to block swaps on its platform, pointing to ideals around decentralization. There is also a live debate over whether SHIELD blocking funds leaves it legally liable for everything that happens on the platform in future.

NEAR is down 11% this week.

Arthur Hayes says money printing is inevitableMoney printing is coming due to the AI revolution, the United State’s debt crisis, and increasing financial stress in France, says Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom fund.

AI companies need trillions of dollars to finance data centers even as the prices of their services fall, Hayes said at a fireside chat at CONNECT by Cointelegraph: Seoul Edition, on Tuesday during Korea Blockchain Week.

“They’ve not really given themselves a lot of options other than print money and make it less bad,” he said.

Hayes also discussed China potentially moving to monetary stimulus along with increasing financial stress in France, including credit-default swaps tied to BNP Paribas and French government bond spreads. 

I think the money printing will essentially happen at some point, but that’s sort of a slow motion train wreck happening underneath the surface.”BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes speaking at CONNECT by Cointelegraph: Seoul Edition.

Blast to wind down Ethereum L2 after costs outpace revenueEthereum layer-2 network Blast is shutting down after its operating costs exceeded the revenue generated by the chain.

In a Friday post on X, Blast said it sees no “credible path” to making the network economically sustainable and asked users to withdraw their assets to Ethereum mainnet.

“We launched Blast with the goal of building a self-sustaining chain for users and developers,” the team said.

“Unfortunately, the economics of operating the chain no longer make sense.”
Blast was founded by Tieshun “Pacman” Roquerre, the founder of NFT marketplace Blur, in November 2023 with native yield on Ether (ETH) and stablecoins and a points program tied to an anticipated token airdrop.

The strategy helped attract more than $2 billion in deposits before its mainnet launched in February 2024.  Its DeFi total value locked has fallen by more than 98% since its June 2024 peak, according to DeFiLlama data.

Ethereum schedules Glamsterdam upgrade on Sepolia for Oct. 6Ethereum developers have scheduled the network’s next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, to activate on the Sepolia testnet on Oct. 6.

Sepolia node operators must update both their execution-layer and consensus-layer clients before the activation, the Ethereum Foundation said.

One of Glamsterdam’s changes is enshrined proposer-builder separation. It will move the handoff between specialized block builders and validators into Ethereum’s protocol, reducing reliance on outside middleware.

Glamsterdam will introduce block-level access lists, which record the accounts and storage locations used during each block, and will enable parallel processing by clients to speed up throughput.

Winners and LosersAt the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is up 1.4% to trade at $85,821, Ethereum (ETH) is up 0.6% to trade at $2,701 and XRP (XRP) is down 0.8% to $1.50. The total market cap is at $2.92 trillion according to CoinMarketCap.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin winners of the week are Midnight (NIGHT) with a 60.6% gain, StarkNet (SRK) on 14.5%, and Pump.fun (PUMP) on 26.3%.

The top three altcoin losers of the week are Lighter (LIT) which was down 22.2%, Zcash (SEC) down 16.4% and Ethena (ENA) down 14%.

Prediction of the WeekPeter Brandt says Bitcoin may hit $600K by 2029Veteran trader Peter Brandt has flipped bullish, after warning in Julyt that prices could fall into the high $40K zone.

“There’s a good possibility we have seen the low and now are entering a new bull market cycle in Bitcoin,” Brandt told Cointelegraph on the latest episode of Trade Secrets.

Brandt has also raised his sights for Bitcoin’s next peak, putting a late-2029 high of between $300,000 and $600,000, up from the $250,000 to $300,000 range he outlined in July.

“The bull market cycle this time has a very good chance of reaching half a million,” he said.

Top FUD of the WeekCrypto hacks top $768M in September, worst month of 2026Crypto suffered its worst month of the year for hacks and exploits in September, with two blockchain security firms estimating losses at more than $766 million.

PeckShield counted 55 major incidents resulting in $766.5 million in stolen funds, while CertiK recorded 97 incidents and estimated losses at $768.4 million.

The month included the $388 million Bitget hack and a $320 million hack of the Liquid Network. More than $270 million was later returned, according to reports.

“September was a stark reminder of how quickly the threat landscape can shift,” CertiK said.

Other crypto hacks in the month included Safe Wallet, DCENT, and Duelbits, which lost $7.8 million, $6 million and $5.9 million, respectively.

Largest incidents in September. Source: CertiK

Aave founder says V3 unaffected after third-party adapter exploit drains $305KAave founder Stani Kulechov said Aave v3 was unaffected by an exploit that drained roughly $305,000 from two Safe multisig wallets through a third-party adapter built on top of the lending protocol.

“This is not Aave v3 contract, it’s third party external adapter built on top of Aave, zero effect on Aave v3,” Kulechov said on X.

Tether says it helped freeze $550M in Iran-linked USDT this yearStablecoin issuer Tether said it helped authorities freeze nearly $550 million in Iran-linked USDT during 2026,

The company said it has been working closely with international law enforcement for years. This year alone, it froze more than $130 million in USDT across four wallets, and in April, it froze more than $344 million linked to the Central Bank of Iran.

The statement from Tether came as Democratic investigators on the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released a report alleging USDT had become a key channel for Iran to evade sanctions. 

Investigators found that 84% of 846 crypto wallets sanctioned over ties to Iran had transacted exclusively or nearly exclusively in USDT. The findings prompted US Senator Richard Blumenthal to call on the Treasury and Justice departments to investigate potential sanctions violations.

Top Magazine Features of the WeekFurious debate about THORChain vs NEAR shows idealism has limitsThe furious debate over Bitget’s $387.7M of hacked funds comes down to whether ideals around “permissionless and decentralized” tech means never intervening — even if you could.

Could THORChain face prosecution over stolen Bitget funds? Legal opinionTHORChain will not — or can not — block addresses linked to the $387.5 million Bitget hack. Can the devs be prosecuted for money laundering? It’s complicated, says crypto lawyer Yuriy Brisov.

Stablecoins can drain from banks and nations at lightning speedHighly liquid and settling 24/7, stablecoins can leave banks and countries at lightning speed. But whether stablecoins are a risk — or an opportunity — depends on your perspective.

Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Some articles contain affiliate links, from which Cointelegraph may earn a commission. These relationships do not influence which products we review or our editorial conclusions. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.

TLDR: U.S. ETF inflows reached a record $1.93T through Sept. 29, up $580B, or 43%, from the same 2025 period. Q3 delivered a record $771B in U.S.-listed ETF inflows, lifting the monthly pace to roughly $214B in 2026. Equity ETFs drew more than $1T in 2026, while fixed-income ETFs attracted over $469B through September. Spot Bitcoin ETFs added $2.65B in September, while spot Ether ETFs drew about $832M during the month. U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds are drawing capital at a record pace, with net inflows reaching about $1.93 trillion through September 29. Bloomberg data compiled by Citadel Securities showed the total running $580 billion, or 43%, above the comparable 2025 period.

Source: Citadel Securities

The third quarter delivered the strongest contribution, attracting $771 billion and setting a new quarterly inflow record. The pace equates to roughly $214 billion monthly, putting annual flows on track to exceed $2.5 trillion if maintained.

BREAKING: US-listed ETFs have attracted +$1.93 trillion in inflows year-to-date, their largest intake in the first 3 quarters of the year on record.

This figure is +$580 billion, or +43%, above the amount recorded over the same period in 2025.

This also puts inflows for these… pic.twitter.com/Jbo749cdhF

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 4, 2026

The surge reflects broad demand rather than strength in a single investment category. Equity and fixed-income products have both absorbed substantial capital, reinforcing ETFs as a dominant vehicle for allocating money across markets. That breadth makes the record notable across both risk and income markets.

U.S. ETF Demand Spreads Across Equities and Bonds State Street Investment Management separately estimated more than $1.54 trillion of U.S.-listed ETF inflows through September. That total already exceeded its $1.52 trillion full-year record from 2025.

State Street projected flows near $2.3 trillion by year-end. Its figures showed equity ETFs leading with more than $1 trillion, while fixed-income products attracted over $469 billion. Within equities, funds tracking U.S. stocks received about $655 billion.

Moreover, technology sector ETFs added more than $59 billion, highlighting the scale of allocations reaching market-leading companies. The State Street and Citadel totals differ as their datasets use different coverage or methodologies.

Neither report reconciled the gap, but both recorded historically strong ETF demand. Industry assets expanded alongside those inflows. Investment Company Institute data placed U.S. ETF assets at $16.27 trillion in August, while indexed funds held $22.4 trillion.

Those indexed mutual funds and ETFs represented 54.3% of combined long-term fund assets, showing how index-linked products now account for more than half of that market.

Record ETF Flows Boost Mega-Cap Exposure and Crypto Access Citadel estimated the 10 largest S&P 500 companies receive about 41 cents from every dollar allocated to the index. Similarly, the Magnificent Seven receive roughly 35 cents. That structure means large index inflows direct substantial capital toward the biggest companies.

Meanwhile, only 25% of S&P 500 constituents traded above 50-day averages in late September. Crypto ETFs also participated in the broader shift toward regulated fund wrappers, although their flows remained much smaller than traditional ETF totals.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $2.65 billion in September, while spot Ether ETFs received roughly $832 million, according to SoSoValue data.These figures show investors using ETFs across stocks, bonds, Bitcoin and Ether. However, crypto remained a small share of the record industry-wide inflow total.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Weekly Flows: The Good, the Bad, and the Concerning