Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around the $85,000 sell wall as leverage cools and new on-chain money arrives, according to Glassnode. That mix could put $96.7K in play.
The same report shows profit-taking running well above its normal range. Here is what each signal measures and what it implies for the path to $96.7K.
Why Did the $85K Bitcoin Sell Wall Matter?A sell wall is a cluster of resting sell orders in one price zone. Buyers must absorb all of it before price can climb through.
Glassnode flagged one at $85,000 to $85,500 in its latest report. ETF inflows had faded and trading volume was low.
bitcoin:native trades near $86k after a Sunday rally lifted the weekly close about 2% higher. Derivatives positioning eased back into its normal range and ETF inflows cooled, while on-chain activity, new capital and profit-taking all run hot.https://t.co/cNfJRo49ej pic.twitter.com/b1tB2JT0lu
— glassnode (@glassnode) October 5, 2026
A week earlier, Glassnode named the next major resistance near $96.7K, the mean Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) price.
MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market cap with the value of coins at the price they last moved. It works as a gauge of holders’ standing against their cost basis.
A Sunday rally on Oct. 4 lifted the weekly close about 2% above the previous one. Bitcoin price action in Glassnode’s Monday update sits above that zone.
Is Leverage Really Taking a Back Seat?Open interest measures the total value of outstanding derivatives contracts. When it climbs fast, traders are borrowing more to bet on price moves.
Futures open interest slipped back inside its range, near the upper edge, Glassnode found. Options open interest dropped after the quarterly expiry.
Perpetual futures are contracts with no expiry date. Selling pressure in them eased after the dip a week earlier.
However, Glassnode’s off-chain summary still rates futures as moderate and rising. Leverage has cooled rather than disappeared.
Who Is Buying If ETF Demand Has Cooled?Spot takers, traders who buy at the market price, ended the week as net buyers. Momentum eased back inside its range.
ETF demand cooled after the prior week’s surge. Weekly netflow stayed positive but far smaller, and trading volume sat near its low band.
Meanwhile, on-chain readings are stronger. Active addresses, fees and transfer volume all rose above their high bands.
Realized cap values every coin at the price it last moved. Its monthly change stayed far above its band.
The hot capital share, which covers realized cap held in recently moved coins, rose further above its own band. Blockchain data firm Santiment separately tracked wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC accumulating Bitcoin since July.
SignalWhat it measuresWeek 41 readingFutures open interestValue of outstanding futures contractsBack inside range, near upper edgeOptions open interestValue of outstanding options contractsDropped after quarterly expiryETF netflowWeekly coins entering or leaving fundsPositive but far smallerRealized cap, monthly changeChange in coins valued at last-moved pricesFar above its bandShort-term holder unrealized gainsPaper profit of recent buyersWell above high bandETF MVRVFund holders’ profit versus costAbove high bandGlassnode’s Week 41 readings on leverage, ETF demand, and profit-taking. Source: GlassnodeCan Buyers Already in Profit Carry Bitcoin to $96.7K?Close to three quarters of supply is in profit. Glassnode described profit-taking as light on Sept. 30.
In contrast, short-term holder unrealized gains and realized profit-taking now sit well above their high bands. Glassnode counts coins younger than 155 days as short-term holdings.
Short-term holder supply also rose relative to long-term holder supply, reaching the upper part of its range.
ETF holders carry the same exposure. ETF MVRV moved above its high band, which means the average fund holder’s profit exceeds its normal range.
If recent buyers keep holding, the move toward $96.7K would rest on demand rather than borrowed money. If they sell into resistance, profit-taking could turn that same demand into supply.
Disclaimer
This Explainer provides general factual and educational information. It is non-personalised, does not consider your circumstances or assess suitability, and is not investment research, financial, investment, legal or tax advice, an offer or a recommendation. References to assets, products, providers, protocols or laws are illustrative and do not imply endorsement. Information, regulation and availability may change or vary by jurisdiction; verify material facts using official sources. Crypto-assets and related products may result in total loss.
Major cryptocurrencies reversed course on Monday following their Sunday gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. manufacturing data and the likelihood of a rate hike.
Crypto Market Corrects After Sunday SpikeBitcoin fell sharply from the mid-$86,000s to the early $85,000s in the afternoon, before paring gains late in the evening.
Ethereum struggled to break away from the $2,700 zone, while XRP and Dogecoin declined notably.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks moved the other way, with Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) and Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc. (NYSE:BMNR) closing down 4.42% and 2.02%, respectively.
Over $190 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, with $114 million in long positions erased, according to Coinglass data. Roughly 64,622 traders were liquidated.
Bitcoin’s open interest fell 0.97% over the last 24 hours, but Binance derivatives traders with open BTC positions remained “Neutral.”
Top Gainers (24 Hours)
The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $3.02 trillion, up 0.10% over the last 24 hours, while the total trading volume surged 66%.
Read Next
Stock Market SurgesStocks began the new trading week on a strong footing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 90.94 points, or 0.18%, to close at 51,267.90. The S&P 500 rose 0.66% to 7,773.95, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.05% to a record close of 27,477.31.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index—which measures the health and direction of the manufacturing and services sectors—declined to 54.9% in September from 55.4% in the previous month, but was roughly in line with market estimates of 55%.
Meanwhile, odds that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged stood at 76.8%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Bitcoin Upsides to Follow?Michaël van de Poppe, a widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader, speculated that Bitcoin is favoring the bullish “upper scenario” over a deeper pullback.
“Flipping $85,000 would be a trigger that we’re going to be seeing more upward momentum here and potentially even seeing $90,000 as a next target,” the analyst stated.
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant highlighted that Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple — an indicator that measures when miner revenues are unusually high or low compared to their yearly average — has hit an 11-month high
“As the Puell Multiple breaks above 1.00 — exiting the accumulation zone — a reversal is expected to be underway, with an initial target of 2.00,” CryptoQuant said. “BTC price has room to continue rising in an attempt to break through key resistance levels.”
Jim Rickards says gold could hit $10,000 faster than expected, calling it simple math, backed by central bank buying and shifting dollar dynamics.
Why could gold hit $10,000 sooner than most analysts expect? Jim Rickards says it is “fifth grade math”: going from $9,000 to $10,000 is only an 11% move, much smaller than the jump from $3,000 to $4,000. He also explains why central bank buying puts a floor under gold, and why a strong dollar and a falling gold price do not mean what the debasement crowd thinks.
Chapters:
0:00 Jim Rickards and the 1998 LTCM Rescue
0:31 What Breaks First: Why Crises Start a Year Before They Hit
3:10 Where’s the Leverage? The Yen Carry Trade vs. Private Credit
5:13 Gold as a Dollar Signal: Why “King Dollar” Contradicts the Debasement Trade
7:33 The Case for $10,000 Gold by Mid-2027
10:24 Bitcoin vs. Gold: Rickards’ Skeptical View
13:07 Will Bitcoin Be a Safe Haven or a Risk Asset in the Next Crisis?
14:45 MoneyGPT: AI Risk and the Fallacy of Composition
17:49 Why Rickards Calls Stablecoins the Most Dangerous Thing in the World
22:58 The Fed’s September Rate Hike and What Comes Next
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
Patrick Green
Patrick Green is an Assistant Producer and Channel Manager on the multimedia team at Bitcoin Magazine, focusing on production, content distribution, and channel strategy across the network.
Bitcoin’s Spot market is recovering from its drop-off in July. However, the overall recovery is minimal enough to confirm stronger demand. Binance led the recovery, with September volume reaching $50 billion from $42 billion in July.
Bybit followed at $19 billion versus $14 billion. Meanwhile, Kraken doubled its figures from $4 billion to $8 billion. The data suggests that traders are returning as Bitcoin’s [BTC] price continues to regain momentum.
However, the growth is being seen by most in a very minor way across all platforms.
Source: CryptoQuant More importantly, higher trading volume has not yet translated into the stronger demand needed to sustain Bitcoin’s long-term upside. As such, if Bitcoin’s Spot activity continues to accelerate, it should create a better foundation for potential long-term success.
Until then, the recent recovery is fragile, and therefore additional demand would likely need to enter the markets before prices move towards new highs.
Bitcoin faces a key liquidity test As Spot activity recovers, Bitcoin’s next move will also depend on how leveraged positions react to the price action movements. In fact, of these positions, the largest cluster sits near $90,000.
In this zone, forced short closures could turn a steady advance into a faster squeeze.
As a result, that makes the level more than simple resistance, as liquidations could add buying pressure once the price reaches it. However, there are other risks involved at lower price levels, including small clusters at $83,000 and $75,000.
If the price drops below these levels, aggressive closing of leveraged long positions may occur, adding additional selling pressure to the market.
Source: Glassnode Therefore, Bitcoin now faces liquidation-driven acceleration on either side. A break toward $90,000 could amplify gains, while losing $83,000 could quickly deepen the downside from here.
Bitcoin Tests $87,400 Resistance With liquidation zones poised for a potential sharp price move, Bitcoin’s price structure is showing where this pressure may be felt. After rebounding from the $84,000 level, Bitcoin was trading at nearly $86,248 at press time.
Since breaking above the $82,561 area, Bitcoin has maintained a higher-low structure while continuously approaching the ceiling of $87,400.
Sellers have several times pushed back on the resistance in the $87,400 region and therefore have been keeping Bitcoin tight within a range.
Source: TradingView However, each pullback found buyers at progressively higher levels and therefore preserved the bullish structure. The recovery again pushed toward resistance but was unable to secure a breakout.
Therefore, a sustained move above the $87,400 level could open a path for a move upward towards $89,000 and strengthen the path for Bitcoin towards $90,000.
Conversely, losing $84,000 would expose $82,561 as the next support.
Final Summary Bitcoin needs stronger Spot demand to sustain its recovery and support a move toward new highs. BTC remains bullish above $82,561, but a break above $87,400 is needed to strengthen the path toward $90,000.
In brief Strive bought 2,000 Bitcoin between Sept. 28 and Oct. 2 at an average of about $84,422 per coin, its largest purchase since 2,500 BTC bought May 23–June 1. Holdings reached 29,462 BTC as of Oct. 2, up 48% since July 2, with $284.7 million in cash and no debt. Strive's average cost was $90,170 per Bitcoin at the end of September, above the roughly $86,000 where BTC traded Monday. Strive bought 2,000 Bitcoin last week—its biggest haul in four months.
The publicly traded company paid an average of about $84,422 per coin between Sept. 28 and Oct. 2, according to its a filing with the SEC. That works out to roughly $169 million.
Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.The company’s last biggest buy was 2,500 Bitcoin between May 23 and June, which lifted Strive's total to 19,000.
Holdings now stand at 29,462 Bitcoin as of Oct. 2. At an average price of roughly $86,000 per coin, that's about $2.5 billion.
Strive is what's called a Bitcoin treasury company—a business that raises money from investors and parks it in Bitcoin instead of cash. In September 2025, it agreed to buy Semler Scientific, a healthcare technology firm sitting on roughly 5,000 Bitcoin, and from there its stack just grew.
Shareholders approved the deal in January, creating a combined stash of about 12,800 BTC. By late April, Strive held 14,557 Bitcoin. By mid-August it held 20,246 BTC.
The market has also moved since, and in the directions hodlers had hoped. Last week's average price was about 41% above that July figure, and Strive's holdings are up 48% in dollar amounts since July 2.
Where does the money come from? The filing doesn't say this week. But in recent weeks, Strive has raised most of it by selling SATA, a type of preferred stock—a share that pays holders a regular dividend, meaning a cash payout, ahead of ordinary shareholders.
SATA supplied 70% of capital in the week ending Sept. 4 and 85% in the week ending Sept. 25.
Each share carries a $100 stated amount, and Strive currently pays about 13% a year. The rate is adjustable, and the company said then it would start paying dividends every business day on June 16.
In plain terms, investors hand Strive cash and Strive currently pays about $13 a year for every $100 share. Bitcoin pays no interest, so those dividends have to come from Strive's cash or from raising more money. The filing lists $284.7 million in cash and no debt.
The filing puts Strive's average cost at $90,170 per Bitcoin at the end of September, above the roughly $86,000 where Bitcoin traded Monday. On paper, that position is worth less than Strive paid for it.
For anyone who has never touched crypto, the setup is simple. Strive's stock, which trades on the Nasdaq, lets you bet on Bitcoin through a regular brokerage account, while SATA pays a dividend and is issued by a company holding nearly 30,000 bitcoin.
Strive ranks fifth among public Bitcoin holders, behind Strategy, Twenty One Capital, Metaplanet and MARA, per Bitcoin Treasuries. Twenty One holds 43,514 Bitcoin, and Strive is now 14,052 coins short of that.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
In brief Strive bought 2,000 Bitcoin between Sept. 28 and Oct. 2 at an average of about $84,422 per coin, its largest purchase since 2,500 BTC bought May 23–June 1. Holdings reached 29,462 BTC as of Oct. 2, up 48% since July 2, with $284.7 million in cash and no debt. Strive's average cost was $90,170 per Bitcoin at the end of September, above the roughly $86,000 where BTC traded Monday. Strive bought 2,000 Bitcoin last week—its biggest haul in four months.
The publicly traded company paid an average of about $84,422 per coin between Sept. 28 and Oct. 2, according to its a filing with the SEC. That works out to roughly $169 million.
Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.The company’s last biggest buy was 2,500 Bitcoin between May 23 and June, which lifted Strive's total to 19,000.
Holdings now stand at 29,462 Bitcoin as of Oct. 2. At an average price of roughly $86,000 per coin, that's about $2.5 billion.
Strive is what's called a Bitcoin treasury company—a business that raises money from investors and parks it in Bitcoin instead of cash. In September 2025, it agreed to buy Semler Scientific, a healthcare technology firm sitting on roughly 5,000 Bitcoin, and from there its stack just grew.
Shareholders approved the deal in January, creating a combined stash of about 12,800 BTC. By late April, Strive held 14,557 Bitcoin. By mid-August it held 20,246 BTC.
The market has also moved since, and in the directions hodlers had hoped. Last week's average price was about 41% above that July figure, and Strive's holdings are up 48% in dollar amounts since July 2.
Where does the money come from? The filing doesn't say this week. But in recent weeks, Strive has raised most of it by selling SATA, a type of preferred stock—a share that pays holders a regular dividend, meaning a cash payout, ahead of ordinary shareholders.
SATA supplied 70% of capital in the week ending Sept. 4 and 85% in the week ending Sept. 25.
Each share carries a $100 stated amount, and Strive currently pays about 13% a year. The rate is adjustable, and the company said then it would start paying dividends every business day on June 16.
In plain terms, investors hand Strive cash and Strive currently pays about $13 a year for every $100 share. Bitcoin pays no interest, so those dividends have to come from Strive's cash or from raising more money. The filing lists $284.7 million in cash and no debt.
The filing puts Strive's average cost at $90,170 per Bitcoin at the end of September, above the roughly $86,000 where Bitcoin traded Monday. On paper, that position is worth less than Strive paid for it.
For anyone who has never touched crypto, the setup is simple. Strive's stock, which trades on the Nasdaq, lets you bet on Bitcoin through a regular brokerage account, while SATA pays a dividend and is issued by a company holding nearly 30,000 bitcoin.
Strive ranks fifth among public Bitcoin holders, behind Strategy, Twenty One Capital, Metaplanet and MARA, per Bitcoin Treasuries. Twenty One holds 43,514 Bitcoin, and Strive is now 14,052 coins short of that.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
Major US banks are showing heightened interest in Bitcoin exposure, according to Shan Aggarwal, Chief Business Officer at Coinbase. Aggarwal reported that recent regulatory changes by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could make it easier for financial advisors to custody Bitcoin on behalf of their clients, opening new avenues for institutional participation.
SEC rules and advisor opportunityThe SEC’s clarification of advisor rules is seen as a catalyst for traditional wealth managers to begin offering Bitcoin services to clients. Aggarwal explained that these changes would not only make it more straightforward for advisors to include Bitcoin in client portfolios but would also significantly broaden overall market access.
Coinbase, a leading US-based cryptocurrency exchange, currently serves as the custodian for the majority of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) available in the market. The company continues to focus on enabling secure, regulated access for institutional clients seeking crypto exposure.
Growing institutional demandAggarwal stated that large financial institutions such as BlackRock and JPMorgan are actively seeking robust Bitcoin infrastructure solutions. He emphasized the growing demand from banks and asset managers for reliable custody and trading services as they expand their cryptocurrency offerings.
He pointed out that, as regulatory clarity improves, asset managers and advisors are expected to allocate larger portions of client assets to Bitcoin, supported by infrastructures provided by firms like Coinbase.
He believes the advisor rule is set to “expand the pie for Bitcoin access,” as Coinbase delivers the critical infrastructure needed for institutions and clients.
As traditional banks deepen their involvement in digital assets, the demand for compliant and secure frameworks is becoming a priority for the industry.
Product expansion and stablecoin focusCoinbase has recently been exploring new opportunities in the fast-growing stablecoin sector. Aggarwal said the company sees a “trillion-dollar opportunity” in the use of stablecoins for payments and settlement. Partnerships with financial giants like Citi aim to bring stablecoin payment options to merchants and businesses worldwide.
The company is also introducing consumer-oriented products, such as the Coinbase One Card, designed to encourage everyday spending with crypto rewards, and expanding into collectibles and routine Bitcoin incentives.
In addition to Bitcoin ETFs and stablecoins, Coinbase continues to assist clients with advanced blockchain tools, including integrating the Bitcoin Lightning Network to facilitate fast and affordable transactions.
Looking forward, Aggarwal suggested that AI-driven financial agents may use both Bitcoin and stablecoins for automated payments and settlements in the evolving digital economy.
Mini dictionary: Coinbase is a publicly traded cryptocurrency exchange headquartered in the United States, known for its regulatory compliance and custody solutions targeting both retail and institutional crypto investors.
Broader adoption outlookAggarwal predicted that the next wave of Bitcoin adoption is likely to be driven by integration with mainstream financial services, use in everyday transactions, and continued development of digital asset products for both individual and institutional investors.
He acknowledged that regulatory developments will remain a decisive factor for future adoption, as the industry seeks consistent and clear policies allowing more participants to enter the market securely.
Large banks are “increasing BTC exposure” as the regulatory landscape evolves, with Coinbase positioning itself as the infrastructure backbone for the growing institutional segment.
As more traditional finance actors enter the digital asset space, the role of secure custodians like Coinbase is expected to become even more significant in shaping the industry’s infrastructure.
Institutions are shifting from questioning whether to invest in Bitcoin to focusing on how best to integrate the cryptocurrency within their portfolios, according to TD Cowen Managing Director Lance Vitanza. Speaking at the recent Bitcoin Treasuries conference in New York, Vitanza outlined key developments shaping the landscape for institutional investors in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s role expands in capital marketsVitanza stated that Bitcoin’s evolution has reached a new stage, with the asset now being considered not just for spot exposure, but as the foundation for a broad range of capital markets products. These include common stock, preferred shares, bonds, and income-generating instruments tied to Bitcoin’s performance.
As more institutional investors enter the market, they are looking beyond standard investment and evaluating Bitcoin alongside other portfolio assets. The focus is increasingly on diversification and new strategies for credit and income through digital assets.
Bitcoin is transitioning from a simple asset to the core of a capital markets ecosystem, featuring various products beyond traditional spot holdings.
Newly emerging instruments such as Bitcoin-backed bonds and preferred shares are gaining attention, offering potential for dividend-style returns and fixed income structures using Bitcoin as collateral or the underlying asset.
Mini dictionary: TD Cowen is a multinational investment bank and financial services company, known for its research and advisory services to institutional investors.
Institutional due diligence and risk managementVitanza reported that institutional allocators are now reviewing Bitcoin in the same manner they assess other long-term holdings. Amid increased interest, discussions at the conference touched on how Bitcoin treasuries can withstand market downturns, focusing on risk mitigation strategies and operational discipline.
Companies such as Strive, Metaplanet, and Nakamoto were highlighted for blending Bitcoin exposure with business operations. These firms are considered more resilient during market stress due to their ability to generate revenue independently of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.
Well-run Bitcoin treasury firms with strong business fundamentals may outperform Bitcoin itself, particularly during volatile periods.
Index providers and their potential impact were also discussed. Relegation or removal from benchmarks such as those maintained by MSCI could directly affect the value and investor perception of Bitcoin treasury companies.
CompanyBitcoin HoldingsMain Business ActivityStriveSignificantAsset management with Bitcoin focusMetaplanetSignificantCorporate Bitcoin treasuryNakamotoNot disclosedBusiness operations involving BitcoinPrice prediction and outlook for 2027Responding to ongoing trends, TD Cowen set its Bitcoin price target at $132,000 for 2027. Vitanza explained that this projection is based on rising institutional adoption, the introduction of new financial products linked to Bitcoin, and the increasing incorporation of the asset into portfolio management strategies.
As Bitcoin continues to build trust and legitimacy among major investors, Vitanza believes the network’s expanded offerings could help unlock new sources of capital and drive long-term growth.
Crypto’s movers and shakers are gathering in Singapore for one of their biggest conferences of the year as a Bitcoin-led rally revives hopes that a new bull market is taking shape.
About 25,000 people are expected to converge on the city-state’s iconic Marina Bay Sands this week for Token2049. More than 500 exhibitors and 300 speakers are slated for the Oct. 7-8 event, including Hyperliquid Chief Executive Officer Jeff Yan, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and World Liberty Financial co-founder Eric Trump.
Crypto’s power players are converging on Singapore this week. They are arriving with something the industry hasn’t packed in a while: optimism.
TOKEN2049 Singapore 2026 runs October 7-8 at Marina Bay Sands. It lands just as a Bitcoin rally has investors whispering about a fresh bull market.
The numbers behind the gathering The event is expected to draw approximately 25,000 attendees. They will represent more than 7,000 companies from over 160 countries.
The show floor is set to host more than 500 exhibitors. Over 300 speakers will take the stage across the two days.
TOKEN2049 Week stretches from October 5-11 and features more than 1,000 side events.
The timing also overlaps with the Formula 1 Singapore Grand Prix.
Bitcoin’s comeback sets the tone Bitcoin traded at roughly $58,000 at the end of June. It has since climbed to around $86,000. That run marks the cryptocurrency’s strongest quarterly performance since late 2024.
Wall Street keeps showing up BlackRock, J.P. Morgan, Nasdaq and Franklin Templeton are all set to be represented at the conference.
Hyperliquid CEO Jeff Yan and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan are on the schedule. World Liberty Financial co-founder Eric Trump is also slated to appear.
How TOKEN2049 got this big TOKEN2049 Singapore drew around 7,000 participants in 2022. By 2025, attendance had reached a record 25,000. That is more than a threefold increase in three years.
This year’s projection of approximately 25,000 attendees would roughly match last year’s record.
Disclosure: This article was edited by John Chen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to give every American $5,000 if the Republicans win both chambers of the Congress in upcoming midterm elections.
From an economic perspective, this injection of cash into the economy could be yet another catalyst for a rise in the value of risky assets.
According to the head of DWF Labs, however, the impact could be much bigger. As the post below illustrates, the proposed payout would be roughly 150% of the COVID-19 stimulus checks.
If even a slice of that liquidity finds its way into crypto, it could ramp up speculative demand and potentially catalyze another 2020-21-style risk-on cycle.
Source: X However, to see if history could repeat, it is worth looking at what happened during the 2020/21 cycle.
In December 2020, Bitcoin [BTC] climbed past its previous $20k high and then more than doubled to around the $42k level by January 2021.
This was driven by increased institutional demand, as firms such as MicroStrategy and Square acquired BTC while PayPal and others offered crypto services. In the first half of 2021, BTC climbed above $60k before eventually reaching nearly $69k in November.
Thus, if another wave of cash hits consumers and even a small part of it goes into risk assets, it could lead to a liquidity-driven demand wave.
The main difference this time is that institutional participation is much deeper, so fresh liquidity can have a bigger impact on Bitcoin’s upside if the overall risk-on setup stays intact.
Is Bitcoin’s rising demand really strategic positioning? Smart money accumulating Bitcoin at these levels can hardly be accidental.
Michael Saylor has once again sent out an “orange flag,” which usually serves as the first indication of a new BTC purchase. Besides, Wall Street isn’t backing off either.
BlackRock’s IBIT just added another $195.6 million in BTC, pushing its net accumulation to around $1.57 billion over the last month alone.
Meanwhile, the Fed is scheduled to inject $5.8 billion into the markets next week. Bitcoin has held above $80k for two consecutive weeks as buyers jump in at key support levels.
These are positive signs of strong institutional demand, as big players appear to be accumulating BTC during the consolidation phase.
Source: TradingView In short, this adds to the case that institutional participation in Bitcoin is far stronger than it was in 2020.
Back then, the initial COVID-19 stimulus provided eligible Americans with $1,200 per adult plus $500 per child and a further $600 per adult in late December. This served as a direct cash injection and a highly liquid risk-on environment for Bitcoin in its 2020-21 bull cycle.
Now, the proposed $5,000 payment per American suggested by the U.S. President Donald Trump would far exceed 2020 levels of infusion. So, if even a fraction of that liquidity flows into Bitcoin and other risk assets, it could become another demand catalyst to an already institutionally driven market.
Final Summary Institutions are still buying Bitcoin, keeping demand strong. Trump’s proposed $5k stimulus could bring fresh money into BTC and other risky assets.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
The world’s largest digital asset manager, Grayscale Investments, is convinced that attempting to time the Bitcoin (BTC) market is quite often a fruitless endeavour.
In a recent publication titled “BTC’s Hidden Risk: The “Out-of-Market” Opportunity,” the company noted that multi-year returns are highly dependent on a short window of high performance days.
Timing Bitcoin is a losing game: GrayscaleCiting Blockchain media company ME Group, Grayscale says Bitcoin gave about a 225% return on investment (ROI) in the past 3 years, as compared to the less volatile Nasdaq, which gave 109%.
Source: Bitbo
However, most of the returns came from just a few days. Removing the top 5 days caused returns to fall to 95%, removing the top 10 days made returns dwindle to 27%, and removing the top 15 days led to an 11% loss.
Remove BTC's 5 best trading days, and that return falls to 95%. Those days can't be predicted, which is why consistent long-term exposure matters for an asset like Bitcoin.
Read more on The Stack:… pic.twitter.com/ee84IzwV1b
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) October 5, 2026 Quarterly returns and current price analysis Coinpedia previously covered how Q4 is one of the best quarters in the history of Bitcoin, while also noting that some of these quarters closed in loss positions.
Many traders now anticipate a bullish Q4, but Bitcoin is facing clustered resistance between $84,000-$87,000, with more hoops to jump at the $88,000-$89,000 range.
At press time, BTC was trading at $85,821, after slightly pulling back from the $86K hurdle.
The parting shot Grayscale concludes by saying long-term investment is the best strategy for assets like Bitcoin, which can experience massive price swings in either direction.
Additionally, while the most profitable days are few and unpredictable, missing out on them vastly and negatively impacts yields. This last remark further builds on the long-term strategy that Grayscale advises.
Story Ends Here
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In brief The SEC approved Cboe's request on October 2 to list six 3x funds from Volatility Shares tracking Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas. Each fund targets three times the daily performance of futures contracts on its asset, and the order sets no launch date. The approval follows SEC warning letters on leverage above 2x in December 2025 and a March 2026 request to avoid 5x products. The SEC approved a rule change on October 2 that lets the Cboe exchange list six funds built to deliver three times the daily price moves of Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas, per the agency's order.
The funds come from Volatility Shares, the firm behind existing 2x Bitcoin and Ethereum products. Shares will trade on Cboe's BZX Exchange like a regular stock.
Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.An ETF, or exchange-traded fund, is a basket of assets you buy and sell through a brokerage app like a share. A leveraged one uses debt and other financial tools to amplify returns, and losses.
These funds aim for triple. If Bitcoin futures rise 2% in a day, the fund aims to gain 6%. If they fall 2%, it aims to lose 6%.
The funds mainly get that exposure through futures, which are contracts to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a later date.
But there’s a catch in the word "daily." These funds reset every day, so the 3x promise applies to one day at a time. Over longer stretches, results can drift far from three times the asset's move.
So, for example Bitcoin futures drop 10% on Monday, then rise 10% on Tuesday. The asset ends down 1%, while a 3x fund falls 30%, gains 30% and ends down 9%. If you have $100 worth of Bitcoin, a 30% drop takes off 30% of $100, which is $30, leaving you with $70 net. A 30% gain adds 30% of $70, which is $21. You're at $91, overall 9% down after the movement.
The SEC and FINRA have warned investors about exactly this. Their alert says returns over more than a day can differ significantly from the daily target.
Why the SEC had to voteCboe's fast-track listing rules for commodity funds exclude products that chase a multiple of an asset's return, so the exchange needed the SEC to approve these funds individually. Apart from the 3x target, the funds must meet all of Cboe's other listing requirements.
The SEC leaned on existing guardrails. Brokers must act in a retail customer's best interest under Regulation Best Interest, and FINRA, the brokerage industry's self-regulator, requires tougher sales and margin (borrowing) rules for leveraged products.
Volatility Shares launched the first leveraged crypto ETF in the U.S. in 2023, tracking Bitcoin futures. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold the coins directly, arrived in January 2024 after a decade of rejections.
Then the race for more leverage began. In October 2025, Defiance filed for 49 funds with 3x long and short exposure, and Volatility Shares filed for 5x products.
The SEC pushed back. In December 2025 it halted review of products above 2x exposure and sent warning letters to nine issuers, including ProShares. In March 2026, it asked issuers to avoid 5x products.
Volatility Shares kept shipping 2x funds anyway. In April 2026 it launched 2x funds on Cardano, Stellar, and Chainlink, adding to existing 2x products on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.
These aren't the first 3x products. Earlier ones tied to silver, crude oil and natural gas, from other issuers, have since left the market, per the order. A 3x gold product from another issuer still trades.
The order sets no launch date. According to Cboe's filing, the shares can't trade until each fund's registration statement takes effect.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
In brief The SEC approved Cboe's request on October 2 to list six 3x funds from Volatility Shares tracking Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas. Each fund targets three times the daily performance of futures contracts on its asset, and the order sets no launch date. The approval follows SEC warning letters on leverage above 2x in December 2025 and a March 2026 request to avoid 5x products. The SEC approved a rule change on October 2 that lets the Cboe exchange list six funds built to deliver three times the daily price moves of Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas, per the agency's order.
The funds come from Volatility Shares, the firm behind existing 2x Bitcoin and Ethereum products. Shares will trade on Cboe's BZX Exchange like a regular stock.
Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.An ETF, or exchange-traded fund, is a basket of assets you buy and sell through a brokerage app like a share. A leveraged one uses debt and other financial tools to amplify returns, and losses.
These funds aim for triple. If Bitcoin futures rise 2% in a day, the fund aims to gain 6%. If they fall 2%, it aims to lose 6%.
The funds mainly get that exposure through futures, which are contracts to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a later date.
But there’s a catch in the word "daily." These funds reset every day, so the 3x promise applies to one day at a time. Over longer stretches, results can drift far from three times the asset's move.
So, for example Bitcoin futures drop 10% on Monday, then rise 10% on Tuesday. The asset ends down 1%, while a 3x fund falls 30%, gains 30% and ends down 9%. If you have $100 worth of Bitcoin, a 30% drop takes off 30% of $100, which is $30, leaving you with $70 net. A 30% gain adds 30% of $70, which is $21. You're at $91, overall 9% down after the movement.
The SEC and FINRA have warned investors about exactly this. Their alert says returns over more than a day can differ significantly from the daily target.
Why the SEC had to voteCboe's fast-track listing rules for commodity funds exclude products that chase a multiple of an asset's return, so the exchange needed the SEC to approve these funds individually. Apart from the 3x target, the funds must meet all of Cboe's other listing requirements.
The SEC leaned on existing guardrails. Brokers must act in a retail customer's best interest under Regulation Best Interest, and FINRA, the brokerage industry's self-regulator, requires tougher sales and margin (borrowing) rules for leveraged products.
Volatility Shares launched the first leveraged crypto ETF in the U.S. in 2023, tracking Bitcoin futures. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold the coins directly, arrived in January 2024 after a decade of rejections.
Then the race for more leverage began. In October 2025, Defiance filed for 49 funds with 3x long and short exposure, and Volatility Shares filed for 5x products.
The SEC pushed back. In December 2025 it halted review of products above 2x exposure and sent warning letters to nine issuers, including ProShares. In March 2026, it asked issuers to avoid 5x products.
Volatility Shares kept shipping 2x funds anyway. In April 2026 it launched 2x funds on Cardano, Stellar, and Chainlink, adding to existing 2x products on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.
These aren't the first 3x products. Earlier ones tied to silver, crude oil and natural gas, from other issuers, have since left the market, per the order. A 3x gold product from another issuer still trades.
The order sets no launch date. According to Cboe's filing, the shares can't trade until each fund's registration statement takes effect.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
Bitcoin opened the first week of October with stronger performance than in previous years, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $241.09 million in net inflows for the seven days ending October 2.
Bitcoin ETFs drive net inflows as seasonal weakness fadesHistorically, the beginning of October has brought Bitcoin’s weakest three-day period of the month, with an average loss of 0.66%, according to data from CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics firm. However, 2026 began differently, as Bitcoin avoided this typical decline and outpaced its usual early-October returns.
ETF activity added momentum to the market. Hupzy, an analyst at Spot On Chain, reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $241 million in net inflows during the week, marking the third week in a row of positive movement. Meanwhile, Ethereum-based ETFs saw investors pull funds.
Bitcoin’s first three days of October have historically been its weakest stretch of the month, averaging a 0.66% decline. In 2026, this pattern did not appear, with Bitcoin maintaining stronger prices.
BlackRock leads Bitcoin ETF buying, contrasting with Ethereum ETF outflowsU.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs purchased around 2,850 BTC from September 28 to October 2, according to industry researcher Crypto Patel. He noted this amount roughly equals the supply of new Bitcoins mined over six days, adding pressure on circulating supply.
During that period, BlackRock’s ETF led all U.S. issuers by buying approximately 5,347 BTC, valued at roughly $450.18 million. In contrast, Fidelity reduced its exposure by selling around 2,010 BTC. Bitwise divested about 463 BTC, while Grayscale trimmed holdings by approximately 354 BTC. ARK 21Shares and Morgan Stanley-related products contributed net purchases, with 306 BTC and 112 BTC bought respectively.
Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $138.02 million for the week, with Fidelity’s FETH accounting for $74 million. The sector saw total sales of around 43,974 ETH in the U.S. ETF market, as estimated by Crypto Patel. Fidelity products sold about 27,578 ETH, while Grayscale cut its position by roughly 14,605 ETH. VanEck shed approximately 2,570 ETH and Franklin-linked offerings disposed of about 2,272 ETH, offset by minor Ethereum acquisitions from BlackRock and ARK 21Shares.
Mini dictionary: Grayscale, one of the largest digital asset managers, operates investment products offering exposure to cryptocurrencies through traditional financial channels, including the well-known Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
ETF ProviderBitcoin ETF Change (BTC)Ethereum ETF Change (ETH)BlackRock+5,347Minor purchasesFidelity-2,010-27,578Bitwise-463–Grayscale-354-14,605ARK 21Shares+306Minor purchasesMorgan Stanley-linked+112–VanEck–-2,570Franklin-linked–-2,272Bitcoin’s steady October startCryptoQuant’s records show Bitcoin usually struggles during early October, with an average price decline over the first three days each year. This year, the cryptocurrency moved against this trend, maintaining higher prices and setting what observers describe as a resilient market tone.
The ETF data for the week revealed a split: Bitcoin products achieved $241.09 million in inflows, while Ethereum-focused funds lost $138.02 million. Both Hupzy and Crypto Patel confirmed this divergence.
While this strong start does not guarantee Bitcoin will continue its gains throughout the month, early October performance has surprised market followers who expected typical seasonal weakness.
Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies traded largely sideways on Monday as the dollar surged to an 18-month high, while expectations for eventual global debt monetization kept the longer-term liquidity outlook in focus.
Notable Statistics:
Coinglass data shows 65,022 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for $240.54 million. SoSoValue data shows net inflows of $189.8 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Friday. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $37.4 million. In the past 24 hours, top gainers include Lighter, Cardano and OKB. Notable Developments:
How Raoul Pal Built His Crypto Portfolio: BTC, ETH, SOL and 1 Surprise CoinStrategy Buys 334 Bitcoin but Strive Bought 2,000: What’s Going On?Cardano Surges 11% While Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Barely MoveBitcoin Has Never Failed a Setup Like This, Analyst Says: ‘I’d Rather Just Say I’m Wrong’Dogecoin Breakout Could Be Getting Closer, Says Top Analyst: Here’s the ‘Key Level’ They Are WatchingXRP Ledger Developments Signal Potential ‘Big Move’ for XRPWill Bitcoin, ETH, SOL See a ‘Sunday Pump, Monday Dump?’ One Analyst’s Indicators Say YesTrader Notes:
Michael Howell’s core argument, voiced in an interview with Scott Melker, is that Bitcoin’s resilience near $86,000 despite the U.S. dollar hitting an 18-month high is notable.
However, investors need to distinguish between the short-term liquidity cycle and the longer-term monetary-debasement trend.
Historically, dollar strength tends to pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets, but BTC has remained above its 50-week moving average while gold has weakened below its own.
Howell sees Bitcoin as one of the most liquidity-sensitive assets in the world.
When global liquidity expands, BTC tends to respond more aggressively than gold, making it a potentially powerful monetary-inflation hedge.
Howell agrees risk assets may be near a cyclical peak. A liquidity squeeze or equity correction could drag Bitcoin and gold lower before the longer-term debasement thesis reasserts itself.
He sees a near-term correction risk but a structurally bullish Bitcoin setup.
Image: Shutterstock
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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s chairman has named Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, Stellar, Tezos, and XRP as digital commodities. For an industry that spent years arguing over what its biggest tokens actually are, that is a short sentence with a long backstory.
The classification places these assets on the commodity side of the US regulatory divide. That side is supervised by the CFTC, not the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Where the list comes from The tokens are part of a broader group identified in a joint interpretive release from the SEC and CFTC, unveiled on March 17, 2026. That guidance labeled 16 major digital assets as “digital commodities,” which effectively moved them out of the securities classification.
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig presented the guidance together at the DC Blockchain Summit.
The release did more than name names. It organized digital assets into five categories: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins, and digital securities.
Only the last of those buckets is typically treated as a security under US law, according to the guidance.
The interpretive release also addressed activities such as mining and staking. It did this through interpretive rules rather than new legislation, which means the agencies clarified how they read existing law instead of waiting for Congress to write a new one.
The XRP chapter finally closes Of the names on the list, XRP probably carries the most baggage. Ripple spent years in litigation with the SEC over whether its token sales amounted to securities offerings.
That fight wound down when all appeals were dropped in August 2025. The commodity classification followed the resolution, with regulators concluding that XRP’s programmatic sales do not constitute securities transactions.
Commodity status is not a free pass Being a digital commodity does not mean being unregulated. These assets remain under the CFTC’s anti-fraud and anti-manipulation jurisdiction in spot markets.
The guidance also notes that regulators keep their authority to pursue fraudulent activity across the digital asset space.
The CFTC is also looking past classification toward trading rules. On October 5, 2026, Selig announced the agency’s intention to advance new regulations covering leveraged retail trading of digital assets.
Those proposals might establish new frameworks under what have been described as Regulation CTX and Regulation CAM.
Why regulators are filling the gap The agencies are moving partly because Congress has not. Legislative efforts such as the CLARITY Act, which aimed to set out a full market structure framework for crypto, have stalled.
The limits are real. Comprehensive market structure rules still require congressional action, and guidance issued by one set of agency heads can be revisited by the next.
Disclosure: This article was edited by John Chen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
The US Treasury has withdrawn a plan to track personal crypto wallets, which would have made banks and exchanges record transfers above $3,000 and report those above $10,000.
The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), Treasury’s anti-money-laundering bureau, said it will take no further action on the 2020 proposal. It dropped a second plan aimed at crypto mixing the same day.
Crypto Privacy Wins?Personal, or “unhosted,” wallets are apps or devices where people hold their own coins instead of leaving them with a bank or exchange.
Under the 2020 proposal, firms would have verified their customer and kept records when a transfer involving such a wallet topped $3,000.
Transfers above $10,000, or several totaling that in 24 hours, would have triggered a report to FinCEN.
That rule never took effect. FinCEN’s filing says the withdrawal aims to keep digital asset rules “fit-for-purpose,” citing a July 2025 White House crypto report.
“The Trump Administration supports the ability of lawful users of digital assets to privately transact on a public blockchain,” read an excerpt in the FinCEN report.
It takes effect on publication in the Federal Register on October 6.
Why Crypto Mixers Still Face ScrutinyFinCEN also withdrew a 2023 plan on mixing, which blends many users’ coins to hide where funds came from. Firms would have reported suspected mixing with a foreign link.
Until now, Treasury’s regulatory agenda still listed that rule for final action in December 2027.
FinCEN said commenters warned its mixing definition could chill legitimate activity. However, the bureau said illicit actors still use mixers and that it may act in the future.
Prosecutors are also pursuing the issue in court. Developer Roman Storm faces a Tornado Cash retrial in April 2027 over the Ethereum-based mixing service.
Existing duties such as suspicious activity reports and sanctions screening remain in force. Meanwhile, every Bitcoin transfer still lands on a public ledger, where wallet payments can be traced.
Real Vision founder Raoul Pal remains bullish on crypto’s long-term trajectory, arguing that improving liquidity could lift Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), Sui (CRYPTO: SUI) and other digital assets.
Pal argues Wall Street’s tokenization push and AI adoption strengthen the sector’s underlying growth story.
Bitcoin Awaits Dollar ‘Green Light‘Crytocurrencies remain "super oversold" relative to the Nasdaq, gold and broader liquidity conditions, leaving room for the market to catch up, Pal said in a CoinTelegraph interview on Oct. 2.
But the key signal for the next leg higher is the U.S. dollar.
"If the dollar starts weakening, then we get a green light for further movement in crypto," according to Pal.
For now, elevated bond yields, a strong dollar and geopolitical uncertainty are limiting liquidity.
AI has captured much of the capital available to risk assets, with crypto tending to rally when the AI trade pauses.
Pal declined to provide a near-term Bitcoin price target but said the widely discussed $1 million Bitcoin thesis is plausible if adoption, ETFs, institutional participation and BTC’s use as collateral continue expanding.
Pal stated he would have "no issue" with Bitcoin reaching that level by around 2032.
Which Tokens Offer Different Risk-Reward BetsBeyond Bitcoin, Pal is particularly focused on Ethereum, Solana and Sui, viewing major Layer-1 networks as infrastructure plays on the continued expansion of blockchain activity.
He pushed back against the idea that Solana is already positioned to overtake Ethereum, pointing to Ethereum’s significantly greater "economic density" per user.
Pal estimated Ethereum has roughly $200,000 in total value locked per active user versus around $2,500 for Solana.
He argued Ethereum remains deeply embedded across stablecoins, DeFi, tokenization, real-world assets and digital art.
Solana, meanwhile, has significantly more speculative activity and smaller transaction sizes, but Pal still expects both networks to grow.
Bigger Crypto Investment ThesisPal remains bullish on Zcash (CRYPTO: ZEC), arguing privacy demand could grow as investors seek assets outside TradFi infrastructure. However, he cautioned its sharp rally makes further upside difficult to gauge.
While meme coins can drive crypto adoption, Pal warns against excessive speculation and favors 80%-90% of a portfolio in higher-quality assets.
With Wall Street increasingly adopting blockchain infrastructure, Pal expects tokenized assets and AI agents to drive more activity toward major Layer-1 networks through 2030.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says crypto is telling investors something the wider market has missed. Speaking on CNBC, he argued that digital assets and tech stocks could not be rising if tighter money was really on the way, and predicted that Democrats will swing behind the CLARITY Act once the midterms are over.
Why crypto’s strength matters
Lee said markets had been bracing for a “maximum hawkish” Federal Reserve. Traders had priced in three rate hikes, including a 75% chance of one in October.
Last week’s softer jobs report changed that picture, in his view. He pointed to tech stocks at new highs and crypto “doing so well” as evidence. These assets “can’t do well in the face of tightening monetary conditions,” Lee said, so they are anticipating easier financial conditions ahead.
His contrarian call on the CLARITY Act
Lee said AI stocks and crypto stalled ahead of the midterms because investors assumed Democrats oppose both data centres and the CLARITY Act. He takes the opposite view and expects Democrats to start supporting both after the vote.
The crypto market structure bill failed a Senate procedural vote 49 to 50 on September 15, well short of the 60 votes it needed. Lee’s forecast suggests that setback may not be final.
Midterms as a turning point
With the midterms about four weeks away, Lee called the vote a “clearing event” and a likely risk-on signal “regardless of outcome.” A Congress controlled by Democrats would mean gridlock, he said, and markets like gridlock.
Inflation, yields and the Fed
Lee expects softer inflation readings over the next six months as one-off pressures fade, with the next report due in two weeks. That would let the Fed step back from its hawkish stance and allow bond yields to settle.
He said the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.75% before the Jackson Hole meeting. Anything under 5% would be read as positive for risk assets, he said, and he sees a good chance of that within six months.
S&P 500 target: up to 8,400
The S&P 500 closed back above 7,700 on Friday. Lee sees as much as 9% further upside this year, which points to 8,200 to 8,400. His reasons:
Earnings are accelerating: Third-quarter profit growth is likely to come in near 30%.Stocks have become cheaper: Estimates for 2027 earnings have risen more than 20% this year, while the index has gained less than that.Oil is helping: High oil prices strengthen the US economy because the country is an exporter.The risk he still sees
Lee has not ruled out a pullback. He said a “speed bump” could come between mid-October and the midterms. But with sentiment already negative and investors cautious, he is reluctant to call it with confidence.
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Strategy's high-profile STRC preferred stock may once again open the door to an important line of capital for the Bitcoin treasury juggernaut to grow its cryptocurrency position.
The chart for STRC is one of the most important in crypto. Now that it is close to reclaiming the $100 level, Strategy could soon start announcing more major BTC purchases.
This is one of the most important charts in crypto right now $STRC is a vehicle used by Strategy to buy more Bitcoin Since May 2025 STRC has been trading below its $100 peg and is now just 0.6% away from it Every time STRC has traded at $100 or higher Strategy has bought BILLIONS in Bitcoin I think we’ll soon see it trading above $100
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— Sweep (@0xSweep) October 5, 2026 Why $100 is significantThe level is significant because it would open up a new source of capital for Strategy without issuing more MSTR common shares.
Strategy's STRC is a preferred stock with an annualized variable dividend of 12% at the $100 price level that Strategy has been trying to stay near.
Strategy has made clear it has no current intent to issue new STRC shares at less than par. While STRC has been below $100, Strategy has been engaged in share buybacks.
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Get STRC back to $100 and more, and that equation could change. Strategy could once again start selling the STRC stock through its at-the-market program, which had roughly $17.5 billion of remaining capacity as of Oct. 4.
And STRC proceeds could be used for general corporate purposes, which include buying Bitcoin.
A remarkable turnaroundSTRC spent time near the $100 level in May. In June, however, it experienced significant selling pressure. STRC moved from over $95 in mid-June down to an intraday low of $71.25 on June 26.
From there, STRC bounced to the mid-$80s and then consolidated in July. The stock then topped $90 in early August and has advanced to a series of higher highs and higher lows in August and September. On Sept. 18, STRC hit $98.51. On Sept. 29, it moved up to $99.56. STRC was last traded at $99.41 as of Oct. 2, up some 40% from its June low.
Could STRC pave the way to billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin buying? That's not exactly the case. Reaching $100 doesn't automatically trigger Bitcoin buying.
Rather, when STRC is trading at or above $100, it makes it a more appealing source of capital for Strategy, based on its current policies.
With that being said, it is true that there is a history of STRC playing a role in funding extremely large buys of Bitcoin.
For example, Strategy's original issuance of STRC raised around $2.47 billion in net proceeds back in July 2025. Then, days later, the company announced the purchase of 21,021 BTC for about $2.46 billion.
Strategy continues buying Bitcoin. Michael Saylor’s company has just acquired an additional 334 BTC for 28.7 million dollars, bringing its total reserve to exactly 848,000 BTC. The average price of the last purchase reached 85,838.80 dollars. In total, the company has now devoted nearly 63.97 billion dollars to its immense Bitcoin treasury.
In brief Strategy buys 334 more Bitcoin for 28.7 million dollars. The company now holds exactly 848,000 BTC. Its cumulative acquisition cost reaches nearly 63.97 billion dollars. Strategy adds 334 more Bitcoin Purchases were made between October 1 and 4. Strategy thus increased from 847,666 to exactly 848,000 BTC. The company had already raised its reserves to 846,842 BTC after a 100 million dollar purchase in June. Accumulation has continued since, with some pauses.
The latest purchase represents 28.7 million dollars. Strategy paid an average of 85,838.80 dollars for each of the 334 Bitcoin, significantly more than its historical average acquisition price.
On all its 848,000 BTC, the group now shows an average cost of about 75,440.70 dollars per Bitcoin. The total cost approaches 63.97 billion dollars.
By itself, Strategy’s stock represents a little more than 4% of the 21 million bitcoins that will ever exist. 334 BTC seem almost small in comparison.
Strategy did not fully draw from its treasury to finance the operation. Between October 1 and 4, the company sold 92,894 MSTR shares and recovered about 15.7 million dollars net. The remaining 13 million was financed directly with its dollar cash.
The method is well known. Strategy regularly uses financial markets to raise capital before redirecting it to Bitcoin. At the end of August, the company had already resumed its purchases with 4,603 BTC acquired for 369.7 million dollars.
But the company no longer automatically devotes all raised money to BTC. During the same period from October 1 to 4, it also spent 73.7 million dollars repurchasing 740,634 STRC shares. Between September 28 and 30, 102.6 million had already been devoted to these buybacks.
Strategy now juggles accumulation of Bitcoin, dollar reserves, and management of its different financial instruments. Michael Saylor also states that the group has 5.7 billion dollars in dollar assets. Enough to maintain some margin.
Bitcoin brings nearly 21 billion $ to Strategy in the third quarter The rise of Bitcoin has greatly inflated the group’s accounts. Strategy estimates its third-quarter gain on digital assets at about 20.91 billion dollars. As of September 30, the book value of its digital assets reached about 70.82 billion dollars.
A few weeks earlier, accumulation had slowed. On September 20, Strategy still held 845,050 BTC after two weeks without a new purchase. The pause didn’t last. The company now holds 848,000 BTC and continues buying despite an average price higher than that paid for its entire position.
This difference is starting to matter. The last batch cost 85,838.80 dollars per BTC, versus about 75,440.70 dollars for the entire reserve. Strategy is therefore buying more expensively than before. But amounts are also getting smaller. The 334 BTC this week are far from the acquisitions of several thousand bitcoins observed at other times of the year.
The general strategy does not really change. Since 2020, Michael Saylor has transformed his company’s balance sheet around Bitcoin. Six years later, Strategy now owns more than 4% of the network’s maximum supply. 848,000 BTC. And still no sign of a definitive stop.
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Lydie M.
Enseignante et ingénieure IT, Lydie découvre le Bitcoin en 2022 et plonge dans l’univers des cryptomonnaies. Elle vulgarise des sujets complexes, décrypte les enjeux du Web3 et défend une vision d’un futur numérique ouvert, inclusif et décentralisé.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) now matches the pattern of every past bear market bottom, according to Benjamin Cowen, one of this cycle’s most prominent bears.
Why the Burden of Proof Moved to the BearsCowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, said in a Real Vision interview Sunday that past bear markets ended with the same three steps:
Price sets a low and rallies It climbs above the 20-week moving average It breaks the 50-week moving average and keeps going Bitcoin has now completed all three, and Cowen can’t recall a Bitcoin rally with this setup ever failing.
Silver’s 2011 breakout did reverse the next day, but Bitcoin has held its gains so far. That shifts the burden of proof, in his view, onto the bears to explain why price would fall back.
Why He Is Not Fighting the MoveCowen had bet that Bitcoin would stay below its May high this year, and the rally past that level proved him wrong.
He says he would rather admit the miss than argue the breakout is fake. “I’d rather just kind of sit back and say, ‘All right, like I’m wrong,'” Cowen told Real Vision.
As Benzinga reported, Cowen first conceded after Bitcoin cleared $85,000. His mistake, he now argues, was assuming Fed rate hikes would push Bitcoin lower, since a hike can also signal a healthy economy.
What Could Still Trigger a PullbackCowen sees a stock market correction as the main threat to Bitcoin. In the last few midterm years, stocks began sliding in late September, and a similar drop this time could drag crypto lower.
Even so, he does not expect a retreat from the $85,000 to $90,000 range to produce a new cycle low, because Bitcoin would still sit well above its prior bottom.
This cycle’s low also came in July, earlier than any in the past, when bottoms typically landed in the fourth quarter and once in the first.
Why Rates May Peak Before Mid-NovemberOn his own channel Monday, Cowen said the 10-year Treasury yield, already at 5.3%, will likely top before mid-November, as it did in the last two midterm years.
Odds of an October Fed hike have dropped from 64% to 17.7% in a week, which Cowen reads as bond traders worrying that the Fed is falling behind on inflation.
He sees the October 28 Fed meeting as the possible point of peak fear, with yields falling after the midterms.
For crypto, falling yields would ease one of the biggest pressures on risk assets and could give Bitcoin’s rally more room to run.
Read Also: Will Bitcoin, ETH, SOL See a ‘Sunday Pump, Monday Dump?’ One Analyst’s Indicators Say Yes
Bitcoin treasury accumulation is still moving higher, with four companies adding a combined 3,342 BTC, which are nearly worth $286.31 million, during the week from September 28 to October 4th. The bigger story though, is where liquidity is moving while corporate balance sheets keep absorbing supply.
Public Treasuries Keep Adding Despite Market RotationMichael Saylor’s Strategy has added a stash of 334 BTC, taking its holdings to 848,000BTC. Strive Asset Management made the largest purchase this week at 2,000 BTC, lifting its reserves to 29,462 BTC, when writing.
The two more firms added, one is Metaplanet that has added 1,000 BTC bringing a cumulative count to 44,000 BTC, while Remixpoint added 8 BTC to reach 1,509 BTC’s. Together, the tracked public treasuries now hold 922,971 BTC in total which are valued to $79.07 billion from current exchange price of BTC. That’s a sizable concentration of corporate exposure that has been witnessed this week, per the data from LookOnChain on X.
Stablecoin Capital Is Leaving Ethereum MainnetMeanwhile, stablecoin liquidity is telling a different story. As the data suggests, the Global net stablecoin supply has expanded by $715.8 million, yet Ethereum recorded $974 million in net outflows.
But, Solana absorbed $371 million, while Tron took in $215 million. Base added $70.6 million, followed by Arc at $54.2 million and Arbitrum at $41.7 million. The observation shows that rotation doesn’t exactly scream broad-based risk appetite.
DEX Volumes Slide While Perps Stay DominantMoreover, the data indicates further details like the DEX spot volume has taken a toll as it fell 3.92% week over week to $59.24 billion, while perpetual volume fell 9.85% to $138.12 billion.
Hyperliquid remained the largest decentralized perpetual venue with $41.53 billion despite a 24.31% decline. Variational, Lighter and Aster also posted weekly contractions. GMX was the obvious outlier, surging 243.76% to $8.22 billion.
For now, Bitcoin treasury accumulation remains strong even as stablecoin capital rotates across chains and decentralized derivatives activity loses momentum.
Story Ends Here
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Morgan Stanley, one of the largest multinational investment banks based in the United States, is rapidly advancing toward a key milestone in the Bitcoin ETF space. The firm’s spot Bitcoin ETF, named MSBT, has accumulated approximately 10,519 BTC as of this week, according to updated figures from blockchain analytics provider Arkham.
Rapid growth in Bitcoin exposureDespite recent volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market, Morgan Stanley has continued to make regular Bitcoin purchases through its ETF. The bank’s strategic approach appears unaffected by unstable conditions, leading to consistent growth since the ETF’s launch.
Data released by Arkham shows that the fund’s holdings now stand at a value of about $903.86 million, distributed across a series of wallets connected to the ETF. This milestone has been achieved in just under five months following the fund’s introduction to the market.
Morgan Stanley’s steady acquisition of Bitcoin through its ETF has brought it within reach of the $1 billion benchmark, requiring less than $100 million more in Bitcoin to hit this target.
Industry analysts expect Morgan Stanley to surpass the $1 billion mark before the end of this month if the current accumulation rate continues. The bank’s persistent expansion of its digital asset exposure reflects growing institutional interest in Bitcoin and related investment products.
ETF launch and trackingMorgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, began trading on NYSE Arca in April. This move marked the bank’s direct entry into the competitive US spot Bitcoin ETF sector, allowing investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price fluctuations without direct ownership of the asset.
Arkham was able to publicly identify the on-chain addresses linked to MSBT within just one week of the fund’s debut, enabling transparent tracking of the ETF’s Bitcoin reserves. Since then, observers have monitored its wallet balances to gauge the pace of institutional accumulation.
The rapid growth in Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF has drawn attention from both the crypto industry and traditional finance sectors, as the fund approaches a significant threshold in record time.
Achieving nearly $1 billion in Bitcoin holdings within five months signals increasing institutional confidence in regulated cryptocurrency investment vehicles.
Mini dictionary: Arkham, a blockchain analytics firm specialized in on-chain data, provides tools for monitoring and analyzing cryptocurrency transactions and holdings across public blockchains.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has unveiled its first set of dedicated rules for the crypto market, dubbed Regulation CTX and Regulation CAM. The proposed regulations aim to establish a voluntary federal framework for exchanges dealing in Bitcoin and Ether. This move is part of the CFTC’s efforts to formalize oversight of crypto exchanges and spot markets, which have previously operated with limited regulatory guidance. The proposal remains in the early stages of federal review, and its full details have yet to be disclosed, marking a significant step towards regulatory clarity in the crypto sector.
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Key Takeaways The CFTC’s proposal appears to indicate a move towards regulatory clarity, which is consistent with increased confidence in crypto markets. Market pricing suggests that participants view this regulatory development as supportive of a possible increase in Bitcoin’s market value. The proposal is still under federal review, indicating that the CFTC is taking a proactive stance in the absence of comprehensive congressional legislation. What to Watch Observers will closely monitor the progress of the CFTC’s proposal through the federal review process, which could influence market confidence and pricing dynamics. Key developments to watch include any indications from the U.S. Congress on broader crypto legislation and potential responses from major crypto exchanges. Regulatory actions or announcements by the Federal Reserve could also impact market sentiment and pricing scenarios.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 1% — — View market → December 31 1.4% — — View market → December 31 2.1% — — View market → December 31 3.1% — — View market → December 31 8.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 35.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 3.6% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.9% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.6% — — View market → January 1 2027 2.6% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.8% — — View market → January 1 2027 17.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 7.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 2.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 3% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 55.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 26.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 16.5% — — View market →
The 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages of bitcoin are about to regain a fully bullish alignment for the first time since June 2025. However, the signal is not yet confirmed and its history shows that it can precede both a strong rise and a quickly interrupted move.
In Brief Bitcoin is nearing a bullish alignment of its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. The 100-day moving average still needs to cross above the 200-day average to confirm the signal. This setup differs from the classic “golden cross.” Historical precedents show widely varying performances after this signal. The 50-day moving average, near $79,500, remains a key level to defend. The bitcoin bullish signal is still to be confirmed The average bitcoin price over 50 days is already above its 100 and 200-day averages. Now a last crossover is missing: the 100-day average needs to surpass the 200-day to produce the expected alignment.
The three indicators move around very close levels, which may allow the signal to form quickly. Here is the configuration observed on October 5 :
50-day moving average: about 79495 dollars ; 100-day moving average: about 79493 dollars ; 200-day moving average: about 79539 dollars ; Bitcoin price: near 86000 dollars ; The last comparable alignment: June 24, 2025. The 100-day average therefore remains about 46 dollars below the 200-day average. Maintaining the price above recent levels should gradually raise this intermediate average, but a correction could delay or prevent the crossover.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the Indian exchange Giottus, explains :
This crossover would restore the order: 50 days above 100 days, then 100 days above 200 days, for the first time since the previous alignment on June 24, 2025.
This bitcoin signal differs from the golden cross This configuration should not be confused with the classic “golden cross”. The latter forms when the 50-day moving average directly crosses the 200-day average. Bitcoin already produced this signal at the beginning of September.
The movement currently expected concerns the crossover of the 100 and 200-day averages. This would complete a structure in which the most recent average prices are all above older trends.
Technical analysts generally interpret this order as confirmation of a positive momentum over several horizons. Short-term, medium-term, and long-term buyers then benefit from a progressively higher average price.
However, this signal is inherently delayed. Moving averages are based on past prices. They validate a trend already underway rather than precisely announcing its starting point.
The BTC indeed rose by more than 40% in the third quarter, rising from its June lows to about 87000 dollars. “The latest signal confirms that the recovery has held,” says Vikram Subburaj. It alone does not allow assessment of the remaining potential.
Past alignments have produced opposite results Some historical episodes reinforce the bullish scenario. On October 27, 2020, bitcoin was worth about 13,600 dollars when its three moving averages took this configuration. The signal remained active until May 2021, during which time the price went over 64,000 dollars.
Another alignment formed in early November 2023. It held until May 2024, while bitcoin rose from about 35,000 to 73,000 dollars.
More recent precedents call for caution though. The June 2025 alignment lasted 97 days, but the price rose only from about 106,000 to 112,000 dollars. The June 2024 alignment held only twenty days before a nearly 10% drop.
“The crossover strengthens the hypothesis of a trend, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” warns the Giottus CEO. According to him, price behavior after confirmation will reveal whether the structure becomes sustainable or remains a short episode.
Bitcoin must especially defend its 50-day average The real test will be around the 50-day moving average, near 79500 dollars. Bitcoin still trades well above it, but this gap can shrink quickly during a correction.
A bounce on this average would show that buyers continue to defend the recent trend. A lasting break would weaken the signal, even if the three-indicator alignment were meanwhile confirmed.
In the shorter term, the price still struggles to sustainably break through the 87,000 dollar area. The rise slowed as the US dollar index strengthened, which generally puts pressure on assets priced in dollars.
The market will also watch the Federal Reserve minutes on October 7, then US inflation on October 14. These events can affect bond yields and interrupt an otherwise favorable technical configuration. The future crossover would thus confirm the strength of the recovery underway for three months. It would constitute neither a guarantee of increase nor an autonomous buy signal.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
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Bitcoin has entered October with a stronger performance than its typical seasonal pattern, raising questions about potential market movements as leverage accumulates near important price ranges.
October Defies Expectation as Bitcoin Posts Early GainsCryptoQuant analyst Andrew Kamsky reported that Bitcoin’s first three days of October are historically the month’s weakest, with an average decline of 0.66%. In contrast, this year’s early October performance has exceeded expectations so far.
Bitcoin ended September at $83,574 and closed October 3 at $84,743, representing a 1.4% increase. Between the October 1 and October 3 closes, Bitcoin fell just 0.14%, beating the historical average drop for this period.
As of October 4, CryptoQuant estimated Bitcoin’s price at $85,132, maintaining a gain of 1.86% since the end of September.
September’s results also ran counter to usual patterns. Instead of the typical average 4.02% decline, Bitcoin gained 6.39% in September. Kamsky stated that this resilience has continued into the early days of October.
Despite the historical trend of early October weakness, Bitcoin closed higher in both September and the initial days of October, demonstrating resilience.
Key Liquidation Levels and Volatility PotentialAlthough the start of October has been calm, derivatives market data suggests that volatility may increase quickly if Bitcoin moves outside specific price ranges. Leading analytics firms CoinGlass and Glassnode have highlighted concentrated liquidity and potential for liquidations on both the upside and downside.
CoinGlass pointed to substantial liquidation levels at $87,600 above the current price and at $83,400 below, suggesting a tight trading band with significant potential for both upward and downward moves.
Glassnode’s research indicates the largest concentration of liquidation risk is centered around $90,000, but smaller clusters exist at $83,000 and near $75,000. This creates a relatively narrow trading zone where derivatives traders face meaningful exposure in both directions.
On October 5, Bitcoin traded around $86,000. Analysts warned that a break below $83,400 could expose the market to thinner liquidity, while a move upwards through $87,600 toward $90,000 could trigger a wave of short liquidations, potentially accelerating price action.
Price LevelLiquidation RiskPossible Impact$83,000–$83,400Downside clusterPotential for increased selling$87,600–$90,000Upside clusterPotential for short squeeze$75,000Lower level clusterFurther downside riskThese liquidity zones reflect the growing leverage in the market as traders position around key support and resistance levels.
Analysis from both firms suggests the next decisive move could be accompanied by a spike in volatility, as traders on both sides risk forced liquidations.
Long-Term Valuation and Market Cycle ContextGlassnode lead analyst AntiFragile noted Bitcoin’s price currently sits about 13% below its long-term average valuation, known as the Mean MVRV Price. This metric multiplies Bitcoin’s Realized Price by its long-term average Market Value to Realized Value ratio to estimate fair value based on on-chain investor behavior.
Mini dictionary: Mean MVRV Price, a valuation metric indicating whether Bitcoin is trading above or below its typical historical relationship between market value and realized value, offering insight into potential overvaluation or undervaluation.
According to AntiFragile, in previous market cycles, Bitcoin tended to see its strongest gains after closing above this level, and cycle tops historically followed more than a year later. However, there is no guarantee that historical cycles will repeat.
The combination of a strong start to October and heavy derivatives positioning implies that Bitcoin’s next move could be sharp, depending on whether it maintains upward momentum or falls through an important support area.
While past cycles offer context, current leverage and liquidity levels may create unique volatility risks as October progresses.
As traders and investors weigh the situation, they face a crucial question: whether Bitcoin can sustain its early gains and reclaim higher long-term valuation, or whether a shift in liquidation zones will invite fresh selling pressure.
In brief Bitcoin traded around $86,000 on Monday, roughly $1,200 below the $87,354 swing high that has capped the rally. Macroeconomic winds have turned in Bitcoin's favor, with potential future catalysts around the corner. The daily chart has painted a decidedly bullish picture, with Bitcoin entering a second, stronger "golden cross." Bitcoin is starting the week on the front foot. It still can't clear the ceiling, but investors have reason to be optimistic.
The top crypto asset traded around $86,100 on Monday morning, up 1.14% in 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.73 trillion. The entire crypto market is worth $2.94 trillion, up 1.36% on the day, and the Fear & Greed Index sits at 68, still in "greed" territory and stabilizing sentiment after a dip from “extreme greed” readings last month.
Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.The spark was Friday's jobs report, and it was ugly—for the economy, that is. U.S. employers added only 29,000 positions in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, roughly a third of what economists expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.
Revisions made it worse. July was revised from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000 jobs, and August was cut from 162,000 to 133,000. Annual wage growth cooled to 3.0%.
Bad news for workers, good news for risk assets. That's the weird math of this cycle.
Bitcoin price data. Image: TradingviewThe Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous vote. A week before Friday's report, bond traders gave an October hike a 64% chance. After it, those odds fell to roughly 16%-22%, depending on the snapshot.
It is the mirror image of last month. On September 4, a blowout August report sent Bitcoin sliding more than 2% to near $79,300 as hike bets rose. Bitcoin now trades about 8% above that level.
Stocks cheered too. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,722.72, up 0.73%, while the Nasdaq gained 1.19% to 27,190.86 and the Dow added 0.49% to 51,176.96. Nvidia hit a fresh record high, and stock futures edged higher Sunday night.
Altcoins are mixed. Ethereum trades at $2,711, up 0.59%, and XRP is at $1.51, up 0.81%. Solana slipped 0.91% to $120.31. All the top 10 altcoins are in the green, but not a single one has moved more than 1%, except for Hyperliquid, which is up 3.68% on the day to $93.17 and 6% on the week.
ETF money is not fading either. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $189.84 million in net inflows on the latest daily reading, with total net assets at $101.1 billion, according to Decrypt data.
Bitcoin ETF net flows. Image: DecryptBitcoin price: Rejected at the door, but pushing up with forceThe chart explains the hesitation. On the daily time frame, the $87,354 high remains the line to beat.
Momentum is strong. The Relative Strength Index, which scores recent gains against losses on a 0-100 scale where readings above 70 are considered overbought, sits at 64.7 which is hot but not extremely overbought. The Average Directional Index, which measures trend strength regardless of direction and reads above 25 as a strong trend, is at 43.4.
Exponential moving averages, or EMAs, track the average price over a set number of days while giving more weight to recent days. A golden cross happens when a faster EMA climbs above a slower one. The chart shows the 50-day EMA (the average price of the last 50 days) above the 200-day EMA, the classic version of a golden cross. This happened in mid-September as Bitcoin registered the second best performance in that month, ever.
But an even stronger sign has just appeared as the 100-day EMA has now also crossed above the 200 day. You can see it in the following chart. The 100-day EMA being the dotted white line.
Why is the 100/200 cross even more bullish? Because it's harder to fake. A sharp two-month bounce can drag the 50-day EMA over the 200 day. To pull the slower 100-day EMA over the 200 day, the price of Bitcoin has to stay elevated for months, which means BTC has not just bounced from the sub-$60,000 levels of July but rebuilt its medium-term trend.
Together, the two crosses mean the short-term and medium-term averages both sit above the long-term one. Think of it as a second confirmation of the same story. The catch: EMAs lag, so a golden cross confirms a move that has already happened rather than predicting the next one.
On Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders are leaning bullish on a short-term push. In the October highs market, an $87,500 touch trades at 80%, $90,000 at 59%, $95,000 at 25%, and $100,000 at 12%.
As far as future catalysts, the week's calendar is short but loaded. The Fed releases the minutes of its September meeting on Wednesday, October 7, at 2:00 p.m. ET, and the BLS publishes September CPI on October 14. The Fed's next policy meeting runs October 27-28, with a press conference on October 28 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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Bitcoin is approaching a key resistance area again after recovering from its late-September pullback. The price structure remains constructive, but nearby technical resistance and holder cost bases suggest that buyers still face a meaningful barrier to further gains.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart On the daily timeframe, BTC is trading around $85.2K, near the lower boundary of the $86K–$90K resistance zone. Following the initial rejection around $87K, buyers defended the $83K–$84K area and pushed the price back toward the recent highs. This relatively shallow correction suggests that demand remains resilient, although a sustained breakout has yet to materialize.
Meanwhile, the two displayed moving averages are converging around $71.5K, with the rising yellow average approaching the orange average from below. The highlighted potential bullish crossover would reinforce the broader recovery backdrop, but confirmation is still needed, and the asset remains well above both averages.
A sustained move above the recent $87K–$87.5K highs could allow Bitcoin to advance further into the $88K–$90K resistance area. Clearing that broader zone would open the way toward the next major supply region at $94K–$98K. Conversely, another rejection followed by a loss of the $83K support area would increase the risk of a deeper correction, with the $75K–$78K demand zone serving as the main highlighted support below.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart The 4-hour chart shows an ascending triangle developing within the broader rising channel. Repeated highs around $87K–$87.3K form a relatively flat resistance boundary, while the ascending white trendline supports progressively higher lows. Bitcoin is currently trading near the upper portion of this formation after another test of overhead resistance.
This compression suggests that buyers continue to challenge supply, but the pattern requires a confirmed breakout. A decisive 4-hour close above $87.3K, followed by sustained acceptance above that level, could support a move toward $89K–$90K, where the broader supply zone and upper channel boundary would become relevant.
On the downside, the ascending triangle support currently sits around $84.5K–$85K. Losing this trendline would weaken the continuation setup and expose the recent lows around $82.5K–$83K. Further selling could then bring the broader channel midpoint near $81K into focus, followed by the $75K–$78K demand zone.
Sentiment Analysis The Realized Price UTXO Age Bands chart tracks the average on-chain cost basis of coins grouped by age, providing context for the profitability of different holder cohorts.
With Bitcoin around $85K, the price remains above the realized prices of the 1-to-3-month and 3-to-6-month cohorts, positioned near $69K and $71K, respectively. These cohorts are therefore in aggregate unrealized profit. However, Bitcoin is still below the closely aligned realized prices of the 18-month-to-2-year and 6-to-12-month cohorts, both near $88K–$89K.
This cost-basis cluster overlaps with the daily resistance zone, adding significance to the $88K–$90K area. As price approaches these levels, some holders may use a return toward breakeven to reduce exposure, potentially increasing selling pressure. The metric alone does not confirm that such selling will occur, but it identifies a region where supply could emerge.
A sustained move above $89K–$90K would place Bitcoin above both cohort cost bases and strengthen the bullish continuation scenario. Until then, the convergence of technical resistance and realized prices remains an important hurdle for the recovery.
Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.
Bitcoin treasury Strategy is back in the black after the rising price of the leading cryptocurrency gave the firm paper gains of $21 billion last quarter, its founder and chairman Michael Saylor has said.
The Nasdaq-listed company last week also spent $28.7 million on 334 bitcoins last week, according to a Monday filing. The firm’s stock (MSTR) jumped earlier trading hours in New York before dipping slightly; it was recently priced nearly 2% higher.
Bitcoin’s price shot up over 40% in the third quarter of this year, having its best three months in years.
Strategy reports a $21 billion gain on digital assets in Q3 2026. Last week, we acquired 334 $BTC and repurchased $176M of $STRC. As of 10/4/26, we hold 848,000 BTC and $5.7B of USD Assets. $MSTR https://t.co/jvwiJahdMm
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) October 5, 2026 The price of the leading digital asset recently stood at nearly $85,655, unmoved over a 24-hour period but up over 8% over a 30-day period.
Strategy added that it repurchased $176 million of its STRC preferred shares. As the world’s biggest corporate holder of bitcoin, it has 848,000 BTC, valued at around $72.6 billion at today’s prices.
The company’s stock has taken a hit since the price of bitcoin plunged at the end of 2025 and the first half of this year.
Investors buy Strategy’s shares to get heightened exposure to the cryptocurrency. They can also get paid a yield via its digital credit products.
Strategy — formerly MicroStrategy — slowed down with its bitcoin buys after announcing a program under which it may sell BTC from time to time to generate up to $1.25 billion in proceeds for the USD reserve, additionally fund preferred stock dividends and interest expenses or fund repurchases.
The company even this year had to resort to selling bitcoin. It has since defended the bitcoin sales, with Strategy CEO Phong Le telling investors that the company now has a “bullet-proof balance sheet.”
In the company’s quarterly earnings in July, Strategy posted a $8.22 billion loss. But Le reassured investors that the firm’s current paper loss was nothing to worry about.
Mathew Di Salvo
Mathew is a reporter who's covered the space since 2019, reporting on everything from Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele's Bitcoin bet to crypto exchange FTX's bankruptcy.
Strategy projected a $20.91 billion gain on its bitcoin holdings for the third quarter of 2026, following an $8.32 billion loss in the previous quarter. The company disclosed this preliminary estimate in a Form 8-K filed on Monday, noting that the figures were not yet audited or reviewed by KPMG, its external auditor.
Turnaround after heavy Q2 lossesThe turnaround comes after a volatile second quarter in which the carrying value of Strategy’s bitcoin holdings was significantly below its purchase cost. As of June 30, the company recorded a total carrying value of $49.67 billion for its bitcoin, but by September 30, this figure had risen sharply to $70.82 billion. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor shared on X that the company recognized a $21 billion gain on digital assets in the latest quarter.
Strategy recognized a $21 billion gain on digital assets for Q3 2026, after previously reporting a substantial loss in the second quarter.
At the end of June, the value of the company’s bitcoin was below its initial purchase price, resulting in a deferred tax asset of $4.12 billion, which was counterbalanced by a valuation allowance of the same amount. By September 30, as bitcoin prices recovered, Strategy reversed its previously reported tax asset and valuation allowance, generating a tax benefit of $4.12 billion. The estimated deferred tax expense for the third quarter decreased to $1.88 billion, compared to about $6.00 billion earlier.
Weekly bitcoin purchases and updates on holdingsIn early October, Strategy continued accumulating bitcoin, purchasing 334 BTC for $28.7 million between October 1 and October 4. The average cost was $85,839 per coin, including fees. This marked the third consecutive weekly purchase, though it was the smallest volume following acquisitions of 950 BTC and 1,665 BTC in previous weeks.
As of early October, the company’s total bitcoin holdings reached 848,000 BTC, acquired at a combined cost of $63.97 billion, equating to an average price of $75,441 per bitcoin. Funding for the latest purchase came from $15.7 million generated through MSTR stock sales and $13.0 million from the company’s USD Cash account.
Week (2026)BTC PurchasedTotal CostAverage Price per BTCSept. 17-231,665 BTCN/AN/ASept. 24-30950 BTCN/AN/AOct. 1-4334 BTC$28.7 million$85,839Strategy also authorized share buybacks, repurchasing 1,773,802 STRC preferred shares for $176.3 million over the latest week. The average buyback price was about $99.39 per share, a slight increase from $98.86 in the prior week.
The company’s management signaled that it recommends maintaining STRC’s 12% dividend rate “until STRC has demonstrated sustained, healthy trading near $100 per share.”
Funding for the buybacks was sourced from multiple accounts. USD Cash contributed $154.1 million and finished the week with a balance of $833.4 million, down from $1.00 billion. Additionally, the company drew $142.5 million from its USD Reserve to cover preferred dividends and debt interest obligations, leaving $4.88 billion in reserve.
Shareholders are scheduled to vote on October 28 regarding a proposal to pay daily dividends on STRC and three other classes of preferred stock.
Mini dictionary: Strategy, a US-based public company, is widely recognized for holding the largest institutional bitcoin reserves and for its Executive Chairman Michael Saylor’s strong advocacy of bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset.
Strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, saw its shares climb 2% on Monday following news of another significant Bitcoin purchase. The company, which has positioned itself as a leading Bitcoin treasury, now holds a record 848,000 BTC.
New Bitcoin acquisition and financing detailsAccording to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Strategy acquired 334 Bitcoin between September 28 and October 4, investing about $28.7 million.
The average price for this latest purchase was $85,838.80 per Bitcoin. With this addition, the company’s average acquisition cost now stands at $75,440.70 per coin. In total, Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves are valued at roughly $73 billion, and the firm’s cumulative investment in Bitcoin, including related costs, is approximately $64 billion.
Strategy funded the acquisition using a combination of proceeds from recent sales of its Class A common stock and available USD cash. Last week, it sold 92,894 MSTR shares, raising about $15.7 million. The remaining $13 million for the Bitcoin buy came from the company’s USD cash reserves.
Additionally, the company repurchased 1.77 million STRC preferred shares for $176.3 million, further adjusting its balance sheet.
Impact on reserves and operational movesAs of October 4, Strategy held $18.8 billion in MSTR shares available for potential future sales via its at-the-market program. The firm also reported a USD Reserve of $4.88 billion and direct USD Cash holdings of $833.4 million on the same date.
For the latest quarter, $154.1 million of the Bitcoin purchase was sourced from USD Cash, and an additional $22.2 million derived from interest earned on cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. The company spent $142.5 million from its USD Reserve to cover preferred-stock dividends and interest expenses on outstanding debt.
Strategy’s position among public companiesStrategy remains the world’s largest public holder of Bitcoin. Bitcoin Treasuries data indicates that a total of 196 public companies have adopted various models for Bitcoin acquisition.
Michael Saylor, executive chairman and co-founder of Strategy, publicly disclosed the company’s total Bitcoin position and average acquisition price. He also posted a Bitcoin tracker chart on X, highlighting the company’s ongoing commitment to growing its cryptocurrency holdings.
Mini dictionary: Strategy is a business intelligence firm that rebranded from MicroStrategy. It is led by executive chairman Michael Saylor and is known for holding the largest Bitcoin portfolio among public companies.
Strategy holds more than 4% of Bitcoin’s 21 million supply, with its holdings now valued at an estimated $73 billion and current gains totaling around $9 billion.
BTC HoldingsTotal ValueAverage Purchase PricePaper GainsStrategy (MSTR)848,000 BTC$73 billion$75,440.70$9 billionQuarterly estimates and stock performanceStrategy estimated a $20.91 billion gain on its digital assets for the third quarter, with a carrying value of $70.82 billion for its Bitcoin holdings as of September 30.
Although the company continued to invest in Bitcoin, both Strategy’s stock and Bitcoin have yet to return to their levels from a year ago. While MSTR shares have gained 3% since the beginning of the year, they have dropped more than 50% over the past 12 months. Bitcoin itself has declined about 2% year to date and is down roughly 30% compared to last year.
The company used proceeds from MSTR share sales and its cash holdings to fund Bitcoin purchases, while also repurchasing preferred stock and covering significant debt interest.
Trump: The reason for surging oil prices is no longer the Strait of Hormuz — the problem lies with refineries.
U.S. President Trump posted on social media that the reason for surging gasoline prices is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, as record levels of oil production are being achieved almost every day now. Instead, he cited the issue of "refineries": Russia’s refineries are being bombed by Ukraine, while U.S. refineries located in blue states such as California are being shut down by "Dumocrats".
22 minutes ago
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 5.69%, marking a new high since 2002.
According to market data, the yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond has risen to 5.69%, hitting a new high since 2002.
22 minutes ago
US CFTC Proposes First Formal Cryptocurrency Market Rules
According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed its first formal cryptocurrency market rules, introducing new CTX and CAM regulations to abandon its "enforcement-only" regulatory approach.
22 minutes ago
A user downloaded a fake crypto wallet from Huawei’s official app store, leading to the theft of 170,000 USDT.
Douyin user Mr. Li Yi posted a video on the social media platform, claiming that on June 10 this year, he downloaded a "fake wallet" from Huawei’s official app store, leading to exposure of his mnemonic phrase and theft of 177,473 USDT. According to his account, the hacker converted the permissions of his wallet address to a multi-signature address, then carried out a second fraud by claiming he could "pay to unlock" the funds. After the victim transferred the money, all USDT in the address was siphoned off by the hacker. Since his video exposed the app’s violations, the app’s downloads on the official store plummeted. The hacker repeatedly organized online trolls to report his video, forcing it to be taken down, and privately attempted to negotiate a "conditional video deletion" agreement. The victim said that after a private investigation, he learned the fraudulent app had set up 5 servers in Hong Kong, paid to be listed on Huawei’s official app store and boosted its ranking, leading many victims to download it as the top search result. Due to relevant bans in mainland China, legitimate wallet apps cannot be properly listed on app stores, so any app that "cannot be officially listed but is indeed present in the store" is likely a counterfeit fraudulent app.
22 minutes ago
Stablecoin Supply Surges $715.8M as Public Companies Add 3,342 BTC
Sept 28–Oct 4, 2026 #LookonchainWeeklyReport ?? Overview Stablecoin supply grew by $715.8M last week, DEX spot volume slipped and perp volume fell, while public companies added 3,342 BTC. ?? Stablecoin Market The total stablecoin market cap increased by $715.8M. ?? Spot &
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Bitcoin ETFs see $164.22M inflow while Ethereum ETFs suffer $63.56M outflow
Bitcoin’s large holders are back in the green. Small wallets, meanwhile, held up through the June low better than they did during the 2022 bear market.
A drawdown that didn’t break anyone Bitcoin’s June 2026 low landed somewhere between $58,500 and $70,000, depending on the measure used. At that point, roughly 51.4% to 55% of the circulating supply was still in profit.
At the trough, around 10.2 million BTC were underwater before prices recovered.
The standout cohort was wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. These mid-to-large holders kept unrealized profits through the June drawdown. They then accumulated significantly in the months that followed.
Retail-sized wallets also avoided the deeper underwater positions that defined earlier downturns. Small holders did feel unrealized loss pressure. They simply did not capitulate in large numbers.
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The realized price line held Bitcoin’s price did not close below its realized price during the 2026 drawdown, a first in the tracked history of its bear markets.
Realized price works like a giant average receipt. It values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then averages the result across the whole supply. If market price falls below it, the typical holder is sitting on a loss.
VanEck’s mid-2026 ChainCheck report noted a transition from early capitulation losses into an accumulation phase among larger players, with coins migrating from weak hands to strong hands.
Profitability returns as prices climb By September and October 2026, Bitcoin had pushed toward the $80,000 to $87,000 range. Profitability metrics improved across every cohort category as a result.
In September, single-day profit realizations hit approximately 25,700 BTC. Even so, small and mid-tier holders reportedly strengthened their positions through the period rather than heading for the exits en masse.
Why 2022 looks so different The 2022 bear market pushed holders much deeper underwater, and retail wallets were hit especially hard. In 2026, small wallets stayed profitable at the June low, large entities recovered quickly, and the realized price floor held.
What this means for investors Large holders appeared less inclined to distribute their coins during the downturn. The accumulation by 100 to 1,000 BTC wallets deserves particular attention, as this cohort continued buying after June, suggesting conviction rather than opportunistic flipping.
The sharp acceleration in profit-taking, highlighted by that roughly 25,700 BTC day in September, could signal caution ahead. Heavy short-term profit realization can trigger corrections, even in an otherwise healthy market.
Market participants will want to watch profit realization volumes, whale accumulation trends, and the distance between market price and realized price as key signals going forward.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin (BTC) is coming off its best third quarter since 2017, but extending the rally may prove more difficult as Treasury yields above 5% offer investors an increasingly attractive alternative to risk assets, according to Delphi Digital.
In its latest weekly newsletter, Delphi highlighted Bitcoin’s 43% gain in the third quarter, followed by a third straight weekly advance last week. However, “the grind higher is happening against real resistance,” Delphi wrote, pointing to the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike and surging Treasury yields, which have reached multi-decade highs.
“When a government bond pays over 5% risk-free, every risky asset has to work harder to deserve the money,” Delphi wrote.
Bitcoin has so far managed to overcome the hurdle, helped in part by growing interest in the so-called debasement trade, or the view that persistent government borrowing and currency expansion will erode the dollar’s purchasing power.
According to Vanessa Grellet, managing partner at crypto-focused venture firm Arche Capital, “the debasement trade doesn’t require low interest rates,” given investors’ growing focus on federal deficits and the government’s rising interest bill.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s price briefly topped $87,000 last week before correcting lower. It has gained more than 35% since mid-August, shortly after the US Treasury announced plans to double its long-dated debt buybacks to support market liquidity, targeting 10- and 20-year notes. Some investors viewed the move as an effort to ease strains in the bond market and contain borrowing costs. Those buybacks have since tripled in size.
Source: Weak jobs data changes rate outlook, for nowThe interest rate backdrop facing Bitcoin could become less restrictive after weaker-than-expected jobs data sharply reduced the odds of another Fed rate hike in October. The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts of 80,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest nonfarm payrolls report.
The disappointing print added to signs that the labor market is cooling, giving the Fed more room to wait before raising rates again.
Even before the latest payrolls data, Fed officials had signaled they were in no hurry to act. Although policymakers penciled in one additional rate increase this year in their September projections, some officials have since urged patience.
New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, said the central bank does not need to rush into another hike.
“With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency,” Williams said in a speech last week.
CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now puts the odds of an October increase at around 24%, down from more than 75% a week earlier.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
A major downturn in Bitcoin prices does not always require a dramatic crash for substantial market impact. Even a movement of just a few percent can result in billions of dollars in leveraged positions being wiped out, especially when traders utilize high leverage.
Leverage impact and liquidation riskLeverage in crypto trading enables users to control a far larger exposure than their initial deposits would allow, but this strategy leaves little margin for price swings against their positions. For example, a trader may deposit $1,000 and open a $10,000 long position on Bitcoin using 10x leverage. If Bitcoin falls just 1%, the position’s value slides by $100, erasing 10% of the trader’s margin. When leverage increases to 20x, the same drop has about twice the effect on the capital.
If losses erode a trader’s margin below the exchange’s maintenance requirement, the platform can automatically close the position. The exact threshold depends on the exchange’s margin, fee structure, and liquidation methodology. Once a leveraged long nears its liquidation price, the exchange initiates position reduction or closure, forcing the trader out of the market.
Such automatic selling in an already declining market creates additional downward pressure. When several traders are positioned similarly, cascading liquidations can amplify market moves. An initial wave of forced sales pushes Bitcoin prices further down, potentially triggering more liquidations at the next price cluster.
BTC falls → accelerated liquidations of long positions → more forced selling → BTC drops further as additional liquidations are triggered.
Open interest and liquidation dynamicsOpen interest, which tracks the total value of outstanding derivatives positions, often signals an abundance of active leverage in the market. During periods of elevated open interest and volatility, sharp price movements become particularly significant.
Reported liquidation totals reflect the notional value of the closed positions, not merely traders’ initial collateral. For instance, an individual putting up $10,000 of collateral to manage a $100,000 position could generate a $100,000 liquidation when forced out. This effect multiplies across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and hundreds of altcoins on major exchanges, driving up total liquidation figures rapidly.
Coinpaper has observed this mechanism repeatedly during rapid BTC corrections, where relatively minor initial declines have preceded over $1 billion in liquidations across cryptocurrencies. When major support levels fail, one round of forced closures can quickly accelerate selling, exacerbating the downward spiral.
As market participants monitor these cascading moves and liquidation levels, there is a growing shift toward smarter, consolidated trading platforms that improve reaction times. In a market where a single Fed decision or a sudden altcoin listing can change everything in seconds, jumping between different apps for charts, news, and portfolio tracking is costing investors money. Smart traders are now utilizing privacy-first tools like CryptoAppsy to consolidate everything. Without even the hassle of creating an account, you get real-time charts, smart price alerts, coin-specific news, and critical macro data all on one screen.
Market structure and risk managementThe increasingly complex market structure means that even modest corrections in cryptocurrencies can unleash much larger systemic effects via leverage. As high open interest continues to accompany volatility, traders and platforms alike are focusing on managing liquidation risks to avoid sudden disruptions.
Multiply this leverage effect across major and minor cryptocurrencies, and the market sees liquidation totals grow swiftly, often surpassing a billion dollars when support breaks and automated position closures escalate the decline.
Bitdeer just signed up a single tenant for 16 years at a Norwegian site that used to mine Bitcoin.
The deal is valued at approximately $4.7 billion. The tenant is Volta, a newly launched AI infrastructure platform. The end user is reportedly one of the most closely watched AI labs on the planet.
On August 4, 2026, Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ: BTDR) announced that its subsidiary, Tydal Data Center AS, had signed a colocation lease with Volta Tydal AS. The agreement covers 121 IT megawatts of capacity at the Tydal campus in Norway.
The numbers behind the lease The base contract runs 16 years and is worth roughly $4.7 billion. An optional eight-year extension could push the total value to $8 billion.
Pricing averages around $202 per kW per month, with 3% annual escalators built in.
The research projects average annual revenue of about $2.4 million per IT megawatt, or approximately $290 million per year. The post on X that circulated the news put the Tydal site’s annual revenue at $260 million.
The capacity is intended for an unnamed leading AI lab. The lab is widely speculated to be Anthropic. It would run NVIDIA GPUs configured with Vera Rubin hardware across four dedicated data halls.
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Anthropic is reported to have a separate $10 billion compute partnership with Volta. That arrangement sits outside this lease. Neither company has been confirmed as the end customer in the Bitdeer announcement itself.
Who carries the risk Volta is expected to back its obligations with approximately $1.3 billion in letters of credit. J.P. Morgan and another financial institution are supporting that credit.
Bitdeer also keeps the right to walk away if key milestones are missed. On the flip side, Volta can terminate without fees after 10 years.
Volta itself launched alongside the deal with $300 million in venture funding. The round was co-led by a16z and Altimeter and valued the company at $2.4 billion.
Bitdeer retains full ownership of the site. It did not issue equity or warrants as part of the arrangement.
From hashing to hosting Tydal was previously a Bitcoin mining operation. It is now being repurposed for high-density AI workloads.
The site runs on 100% renewable hydropower and targets a Power Usage Effectiveness, or PUE, of about 1.1.
Construction is phased. Bitdeer is targeting completion by December 31, 2026, and March 31, 2027. Finishing the build is expected to require an additional investment of around $500 million.
Tydal is one piece of Bitdeer’s Norway footprint. The company also operates an active 84 MW mine in Molde, which continues to run as a crypto operation.
Shares of Bitdeer rose sharply in premarket trading after the announcement. Several analysts raised their price targets on the stock, including Needham.
What this means for Bitdeer and the miners The $1.3 billion in letters of credit softens Volta’s credit exposure but does not cover the full contract value.
The 10-year fee-free exit for Volta is another detail worth watching. If the full 16-year term is not honored, investors modeling the full $4.7 billion should keep that clause in mind.
Bitdeer needs to spend around $500 million and hit two construction deadlines within roughly the next eight months. Missing milestones would hand both sides termination options.
The key items to track are construction progress against the December and March targets, any confirmation of the end customer, and whether Bitdeer pursues similar conversions elsewhere in its portfolio. The Molde site, still mining at 84 MW, is the obvious place to look next.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Diego Almada Lopez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Strategy, known as a major public Bitcoin holder, is watching its high-profile STRC preferred stock approach the $100 mark, a development that could open a new avenue of capital for expanding its cryptocurrency reserves.
STRC stock approaches key levelThe STRC preferred stock has been widely tracked among crypto and equity investors due to its impact on Strategy’s ability to acquire more Bitcoin. The stock, which pays a variable annualized dividend of 12% at the $100 price, is returning to this level after significant fluctuations in recent months.
Strategy has consistently stated that it will not issue new STRC shares below the par value of $100. While STRC remained under this threshold, the company opted for share buybacks rather than new issuances.
Recent trading activity has seen the STRC price climb steadily. After dropping from over $95 in mid-June to an intraday low of $71.25 on June 26, STRC rebounded through July, consolidated in the mid-$80s, and crossed $90 by early August. The upward trend continued, with the stock reaching $98.51 on September 18, $99.56 on September 29, and closing at $99.41 as of October 2, representing a gain of about 40% from its June low.
The $100 mark holds significance for Strategy because it enables the company to raise capital by selling new STRC shares through its at-the-market program, which had approximately $17.5 billion in unused capacity as of October 4.
Proceeds from STRC issuances can be directed toward general corporate needs, which includes purchasing additional Bitcoin for the company’s reserves.
Mini dictionary: STRC is a preferred stock issued by Strategy, offering investors a fixed dividend and priority in case of liquidation, but typically without voting rights. At par value ($100), it provides Strategy with an alternative funding method for corporate activities, including potential Bitcoin acquisitions.
History of STRC and Bitcoin purchasesDespite the renewed interest in STRC as it approaches $100, reaching this threshold does not guarantee new Bitcoin buying. Rather, it provides Strategy with an attractive financial mechanism for raising capital, aligned with company policy to avoid issuing STRC below par.
STRC’s proximity to the $100 level is significant because it may once again make the stock a viable option for raising capital without increasing the supply of Strategy’s common stock, a move closely observed by investors tracking potential Bitcoin purchases by the company.
There is precedent for large-scale Bitcoin acquisitions using STRC proceeds. When Strategy originally issued STRC in July 2025, it raised approximately $2.47 billion in net proceeds. Shortly after, the company purchased 21,021 BTC for about $2.46 billion, highlighting the strategic connection between STRC capital and cryptocurrency accumulation.
Date/PeriodSTRC PriceEventJune 26$71.25Intraday low after heavy sellingSeptember 18$98.51Approaching $100 markOctober 2$99.41Latest closing price, up 40% from June lowJuly 2025$100 (at issuance)STRC issuance raises $2.47B, followed by purchase of 21,021 BTCMarket outlookAnalysts continue to watch the STRC price closely, as movement above the $100 threshold could enable Strategy to utilize its at-the-market offering for further capital raises. While this would not automatically lead to immediate Bitcoin purchases, it would provide the company with expanded financial options in line with its established practices.
In previous periods when STRC traded at or above par, the stock played a direct role in bolstering Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings. However, future activity will depend on both market conditions and the company’s financing strategy.
Although hitting the $100 level does not compel Strategy to buy more Bitcoin, historical patterns suggest that access to capital from STRC sales has often led to major acquisitions in the past, making the stock price an important trigger for market participants.
Trump: The reason for surging oil prices is no longer the Strait of Hormuz — the problem lies with refineries.
U.S. President Trump posted on social media that the reason for surging gasoline prices is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, as record levels of oil production are being achieved almost every day now. Instead, he cited the issue of "refineries": Russia’s refineries are being bombed by Ukraine, while U.S. refineries located in blue states such as California are being shut down by "Dumocrats".
21 minutes ago
Bitcoin briefly fell below $85,000.
According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $85,000 and is currently trading at $85,126.
21 minutes ago
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 5.69%, marking a new high since 2002.
According to market data, the yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond has risen to 5.69%, hitting a new high since 2002.
21 minutes ago
US CFTC Proposes First Formal Cryptocurrency Market Rules
According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed its first formal cryptocurrency market rules, introducing new CTX and CAM regulations to abandon its "enforcement-only" regulatory approach.
21 minutes ago
A user downloaded a fake crypto wallet from Huawei’s official app store, leading to the theft of 170,000 USDT.
Douyin user Mr. Li Yi posted a video on the social media platform, claiming that on June 10 this year, he downloaded a "fake wallet" from Huawei’s official app store, leading to exposure of his mnemonic phrase and theft of 177,473 USDT. According to his account, the hacker converted the permissions of his wallet address to a multi-signature address, then carried out a second fraud by claiming he could "pay to unlock" the funds. After the victim transferred the money, all USDT in the address was siphoned off by the hacker. Since his video exposed the app’s violations, the app’s downloads on the official store plummeted. The hacker repeatedly organized online trolls to report his video, forcing it to be taken down, and privately attempted to negotiate a "conditional video deletion" agreement. The victim said that after a private investigation, he learned the fraudulent app had set up 5 servers in Hong Kong, paid to be listed on Huawei’s official app store and boosted its ranking, leading many victims to download it as the top search result. Due to relevant bans in mainland China, legitimate wallet apps cannot be properly listed on app stores, so any app that "cannot be officially listed but is indeed present in the store" is likely a counterfeit fraudulent app.
21 minutes ago
Stablecoin Supply Surges $715.8M as Public Companies Add 3,342 BTC
Sept 28–Oct 4, 2026 #LookonchainWeeklyReport ?? Overview Stablecoin supply grew by $715.8M last week, DEX spot volume slipped and perp volume fell, while public companies added 3,342 BTC. ?? Stablecoin Market The total stablecoin market cap increased by $715.8M. ?? Spot &
Trump: The reason for surging oil prices is no longer the Strait of Hormuz — the problem lies with refineries.
U.S. President Trump posted on social media that the reason for surging gasoline prices is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, as record levels of oil production are being achieved almost every day now. Instead, he cited the issue of "refineries": Russia’s refineries are being bombed by Ukraine, while U.S. refineries located in blue states such as California are being shut down by "Dumocrats".
21 minutes ago
Bitcoin briefly fell below $85,000.
According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $85,000 and is currently trading at $85,126.
21 minutes ago
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 5.69%, marking a new high since 2002.
According to market data, the yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond has risen to 5.69%, hitting a new high since 2002.
21 minutes ago
US CFTC Proposes First Formal Cryptocurrency Market Rules
According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed its first formal cryptocurrency market rules, introducing new CTX and CAM regulations to abandon its "enforcement-only" regulatory approach.
21 minutes ago
A user downloaded a fake crypto wallet from Huawei’s official app store, leading to the theft of 170,000 USDT.
Douyin user Mr. Li Yi posted a video on the social media platform, claiming that on June 10 this year, he downloaded a "fake wallet" from Huawei’s official app store, leading to exposure of his mnemonic phrase and theft of 177,473 USDT. According to his account, the hacker converted the permissions of his wallet address to a multi-signature address, then carried out a second fraud by claiming he could "pay to unlock" the funds. After the victim transferred the money, all USDT in the address was siphoned off by the hacker. Since his video exposed the app’s violations, the app’s downloads on the official store plummeted. The hacker repeatedly organized online trolls to report his video, forcing it to be taken down, and privately attempted to negotiate a "conditional video deletion" agreement. The victim said that after a private investigation, he learned the fraudulent app had set up 5 servers in Hong Kong, paid to be listed on Huawei’s official app store and boosted its ranking, leading many victims to download it as the top search result. Due to relevant bans in mainland China, legitimate wallet apps cannot be properly listed on app stores, so any app that "cannot be officially listed but is indeed present in the store" is likely a counterfeit fraudulent app.
21 minutes ago
Stablecoin Supply Surges $715.8M as Public Companies Add 3,342 BTC
Sept 28–Oct 4, 2026 #LookonchainWeeklyReport ?? Overview Stablecoin supply grew by $715.8M last week, DEX spot volume slipped and perp volume fell, while public companies added 3,342 BTC. ?? Stablecoin Market The total stablecoin market cap increased by $715.8M. ?? Spot &
