Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large-scale missile and drone assault targeting US military bases across the Gulf region. The crypto market’s reaction was swift, violent, and, for leveraged traders, extremely expensive.

Bitcoin plunged to approximately $99.5K in the immediate aftermath of the June 28 strikes before snapping back above $102K.

What happened on the ground The IRGC announced the strikes as retaliation for earlier US airstrikes, deploying a combination of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones against multiple targets. Key installations in the crosshairs included the Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.

Most of the incoming threats were intercepted by Kuwaiti and Bahraini defense systems. Initial reports indicate minimal infrastructure damage and no confirmed American casualties.

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The June 28 operation wasn’t the first salvo. Earlier in the month, on June 10, reports surfaced that the IRGC had launched strikes targeting 22 US positions across Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait.

While Iranian state media broadcast claims of significant damage, independent verification has been scarce.

The crypto market felt it anyway Bitcoin’s drop to roughly $99.5K and subsequent recovery above $102K compressed into a remarkably short window. The move itself, roughly a 2.5% swing, wouldn’t normally raise eyebrows in crypto. But in the context of leveraged positions, it was devastating.

Previous geopolitical escalations involving Iran earlier in 2026 triggered approximately $1 billion in Bitcoin liquidations. Traders running high leverage on perpetual futures contracts get wiped out in exactly these scenarios, where the move is sharp enough to trigger cascading liquidations but short-lived enough that the underlying market barely remembers it happened.

Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim $102K suggests that the selling pressure was almost entirely liquidation-driven rather than reflecting a genuine shift in investor sentiment.

Why crypto keeps reacting to Middle East tensions Iran has historically leveraged cryptocurrency mining as a mechanism to generate revenue outside the reach of international sanctions. Any escalation involving Iran carries a secondary implication for crypto markets: the potential for tighter enforcement, new sanctions frameworks, or disruptions to mining operations.

Iran remains a significant player in global oil markets, and any military conflict in the Gulf region threatens shipping lanes and production facilities. Rising energy costs ripple through every sector, including the energy-intensive Bitcoin mining industry. Higher electricity prices compress miner margins, which can lead to reduced hash rate and, in extreme scenarios, miner capitulation.

What investors should watch next For crypto investors, spot Bitcoin tends to recover quickly from geopolitically driven selloffs. The real risk sits in the derivatives market, where leveraged positions face existential threats from the kind of sudden, headline-driven volatility these events produce.

A confirmed attack resulting in significant American casualties or damage to critical energy infrastructure would likely trigger a very different market response than what we’ve seen so far.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

https://www.fintechweekly.com/magazine/articles/russia-crypto-reserves-bitcoin-vs-gold-yuan

Russia’s State Duma has approved a revised cryptocurrency oversight bill that eliminates the requirement for users to disclose wallet addresses to authorities, setting a cap on retail investment at 300,000 rubles annually, and introducing a 48-hour delay on large foreign transfers. This legislative move marks a significant shift from previous drafts by reducing regulatory burdens on crypto usage. The Central Bank of Russia is designated as the regulatory body, with the law expected to take effect on September 1, 2026. Analysts suggest that these changes could foster a more favorable environment for cryptocurrency markets within Russia, potentially influencing global crypto sentiment.

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Key Takeaways Russia’s revised bill appears to reduce regulatory burdens by removing the requirement to disclose wallet addresses. The legislation suggests a more controlled approach with a cap on retail crypto investments and a delay on large transfers. Market pricing suggests that these developments could influence optimism about Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. What to Watch Observers will closely monitor the implementation of this legislation to assess its impact on the Russian crypto market and global sentiment. The Central Bank of Russia’s role as the regulatory body will be crucial in determining how these changes affect market dynamics. Developments in U.S. crypto legislation and Federal Reserve rate decisions could further impact market perceptions and Bitcoin’s price outlook.

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Term Structure

Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 1.6% — — View market → December 31 1.9% — — View market → December 31 2.4% — — View market → December 31 3.4% — — View market → December 31 5.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 10% — — View market → January 1 2027 36.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.8% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.9% — — View market → January 1 2027 3.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 3.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 6.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 71.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 12.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 4% — — View market → January 1 2027 48.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 24% — — View market → January 1 2027 9.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 3.6% — — View market → January 1 2027 3.9% — — View market → January 1 2027 2.8% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.2% — — View market → January 1 2027 0.9% — — View market → January 1 2027 12.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 22.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 32.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 47.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 66.5% — — View market →

The Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company has canceled its planned business combination with Cantor Equity Partners I, unwinding what would have been one of the most ambitious bitcoin treasury deals ever attempted through a SPAC structure. The original agreement, signed in July 2025, is now dead, though both parties say they’re negotiating revised terms.

BSTR CEO Adam Back announced the decision on July 8, pointing to changing market conditions as the catalyst. The CEPO shareholder meeting has been postponed indefinitely, and the private placements tied to the original deal will not proceed.

What the deal was supposed to look like BSTR planned to debut on Nasdaq under the ticker BSTR as a dedicated bitcoin treasury vehicle, launching with 30,021 BTC. At the time the deal was structured, that stack was valued at over $3 billion, which would have made it the fourth-largest public bitcoin treasury.

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The bitcoin was coming from two sources. Founders contributed 25,000 BTC directly, with an additional 5,021 BTC sourced through an in-kind PIPE arrangement.

The PIPE financing component alone was potentially worth up to $1.5 billion, making it the largest PIPE ever announced in the context of a Bitcoin treasury SPAC. CEPO itself had raised roughly $200 million through its January IPO, and the combined structure was designed to create a publicly traded vehicle that could actively manage bitcoin assets and develop Bitcoin-native capital markets products.

BSTR was the second Cantor-backed SPAC to chase a Bitcoin treasury strategy. The first resulted in Twenty One Capital, which successfully completed its merger.

Why the deal collapsed The deal had already been showing signs of strain before the cancellation, with the shareholder vote experiencing a series of delays. Back’s public statement emphasized the need to adapt to current market conditions. CEPO shares were trading at roughly $10.50 at the time of the announcement, barely above the typical SPAC trust value, suggesting that investors were already pricing in significant uncertainty about whether the deal would close.

Both sides say they’re still talking. The original business combination agreement is dead, but BSTR and CEPO have indicated they want to explore a different structure and revised terms.

What investors should be watching For anyone holding CEPO shares, there is no deal on the table right now. The shares are trading near trust value, which provides a floor of sorts, but the upside case that attracted speculative buyers has evaporated until and unless new terms emerge.

The original deal was signed in July 2025, and a full year later, it still hadn’t closed. Any restructured deal will need to account for this reality, likely with mechanisms that allow terms to adjust more dynamically with market conditions rather than locking in static valuations months before closing.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 07: Bitcoin mining hardware is displayed at a Bitcoin conference on at the Javits Center April 7, 2014 in New York City.

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"From outside, people will definitely be thinking that the company is crazy," said Juliet Ye. "Who are they? They're making this bold move, and they do not know anyone in this industry." She was talking about the day a Chinese auto-lending firm spent hundreds of millions of dollars to become a Bitcoin miner.

That was a year and a half ago. Now it is doing the same thing in reverse. Almost every public Bitcoin miner is rushing to lease its power to the hyperscalers building AI's giant training clusters. Cango Inc. is walking the other way.

Cango (NYSE: CANG) is on its third life. It listed in New York in 2018 as China's only US-listed auto-financing platform. In November 2024 it agreed to acquire about 50 exahash of Bitmain rigs and became a pure-play Bitcoin miner. Then, on April 13 this year, it launched an AI-inference subsidiary called EcoHash, with its own software layer, EcoLink. No AI training. No giant new data centers. Just a bet that the small, scattered miners the hyperscalers can't use are where a lot of AI compute will end up.

"What not to do is as important as what to do," said Ye, Cango's senior director of communications. She comes back to that line again and again. It is the whole strategy in nine words.

Energy first, Bitcoin secondYe says the company never set out to mine Bitcoin at all. It set out to own energy.

She would know the history. She has spent eight years at Cango, after the Wall Street Journal and the consulting firm FTI. The story she tells starts with cars. Cango took an early stake in Li Auto, the Chinese electric-vehicle maker, before it went public. When Li Auto listed in 2020, Cango booked a fair-value gain of about 3.3 billion yuan, roughly $508 million, and an appetite for the power business underneath the cars. By 2023 it was scouting energy projects in Australia and the Middle East.

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"During a trip in the Middle East, to look for solar projects, the management bumped into Bitmain," Ye said. That is how an auto lender met Bitcoin mining.

What clicked was not the coin. It was the wiring. "All these mining sites are basically, literally, just energy infrastructure," Ye said. "The only reason there are mining farms is because they use the energy and turn the energy to coin. We can still turn energy into other things." Mining was a way in. "We are not thinking of doing Bitcoin mining from day one. We're thinking of running energy infrastructure from day one."

Getting in was expensive. Cango paid $256 million in cash for 32 exahash of Bitmain machines in November 2024, then took another 18 exahash in stock that closed the following summer, the shares going to a company run by a former Bitmain finance chief. To escape its "China concept stock" label, it sold its entire domestic auto business for about $352 million. It brought in crypto-native leadership, including a new chief executive and a chairman who founded Antalpha, a financing firm tied into the Bitmain world. By mid-2025 the lender was gone. A miner stood in its place.

Why everyone is pivotingCango is not the only miner running for the AI exit. The math of mining has met the math of AI, and both businesses fight over the same thing: electricity.

"AI HPC's future might be Bitcoin mining's past," Leo Wang, a Canaan executive, said on the On The Margin podcast. In 2021 miners were the villains, blamed for burning power. Now that same power is the prize. "It is all energy play," Wang said. "We think in the future, energy will be a scarcer asset for everybody."

What miners hold that AI labs crave is not chips. It is a plug. A new substation and a long-term grid contract can take years to land. "When hyperscalers are looking for someone who can supply them short-term guaranteed power, they turn to Bitcoin miners, because the Bitcoin mining companies have already put money and secured power," Wang said. The miners, he added, "got lucky" that AI showed up just as block rewards got thinner.

The timing tracks the cycle. "We have been following the four-year cycle unbelievably well," crypto investor Michael Terpin said on the On The Margin podcast. After each halving, mining margins tighten, and operators go looking for a second way to make money.

Markets have run with it. Core Scientific was an early mover, leasing capacity to AI cloud CoreWeave, and miners from IREN to the firm once called Bitfarms have followed. "Crypto mining warehouses are quietly switching to AI inference, and pulling in around four times the revenue," the analyst behind the @0xCristal account wrote on X. "A GPU warehouse makes more serving LLM inference than mining blocks."

The bet against the mega-siteThis is where Cango breaks from the herd. The popular move is to turn a few huge sites into AI training campuses and sign one long lease with a hyperscaler. Cango said no to that.

"We are definitely not doing AI training," Ye said. "That sector is already crowded with hyperscalers. It's not realistic for us to compete." The decision came out of the company's own shape. Cango works with more than 30 sites around the world, most of them 10 to 50 megawatts. Too small for a hyperscaler chasing 100-megawatt campuses. But, Ye argues, just right for the other half of AI. "For AI inference, you have to be distributed. You have to be close to your clients to lower the latency," she said. "Ten to 50 megawatts is too small for hyperscalers, but it's perfect for AI inference."

Then she gets to her favorite number. "Over 70% of the power in the mining sector is actually owned by individual players, smaller sites," Ye said. "Only 30% is controlled by those public miners." Those small operators own land and power. They don't own the AI technology, the customers, or the financing. Cango wants to bring all of it. "We are offering them a symbiotic relationship. We come to the sites, we bring the AI playbook, and they own the land, they own the power," she said. "If one thing can make Cango stand up in the next three to five years on the AI front, it's the symbiotic relationship between these smaller sites."

EcoLink is the glue. One small site can't match a hyperscaler's always-on uptime, so Cango spreads the reliability around instead. "If one side is down, we can direct the workload to another site, in milliseconds," Ye said. The buyers, so far, are what she calls the long tail. GPU marketplaces like Runpod and Vast.ai. Distributed inference clouds like Zenlayer. AI startups too small to sign a hyperscaler's terms. Price is the hook: a top provider might charge several dollars per GPU per hour, and a marketplace rents the same chip for under a dollar. None of the early test clients took an exclusive deal, Ye said, and most renewed anyway. "The customer demand is definitely real."

The cash engine, and the costCango has not quit Bitcoin. It still runs about 31.7 exahash, which brought in $98.4 million of mining revenue in the first quarter. That is the cash that keeps the lights on while the company raises money for AI. "Most miners just drop Bitcoin mining for good," Ye said. "For us, it's more a hybrid approach."

The cleanup was brutal. "We're basically clearing the decks," Ye said. "Investors might want to invest in our AI pivot, but they do not want their money used to pay the old debt." So Cango sold 6,451 Bitcoin for around $442 million and cut long-term debt from $557.6 million to $30.6 million in a single quarter, a 94.5% drop. Its coin hoard shrank to about a thousand. Then it raised $75 million tied to the EcoHash launch. The first AI node is going into a 50-megawatt site Cango owns in Georgia, bought last August for $19.5 million. Ye calls it a "living showroom." Two or three more are due by year-end.

The doubtersNot everyone is sold. "People are a little bit cautious about it," Wang said of the AI rush, "because people are worried about a bubble." The story is running years ahead of the revenue. Retrofitting a warehouse full of fans into a liquid-cooled AI data center costs a fortune. Plenty of miners have spiked on a press release and nothing more. The one once called Bitfarms jumped hundreds of percent on its AI rebrand before it booked a dollar of AI revenue, and analysts who track the pivots keep warning that the money needed to finish them runs into the billions.

Bitcoiners have a different worry. As miners switch off rigs, the network's hashrate has slid, and some say the security cost is being waved away. "Bitcoin miners are abandoning the network for AI money," one widely shared X post warned. Cango's own cushion is thin. It had just $7.2 million in cash at quarter's end after the debt purge, and at least one outlet has questioned its standing on the NYSE. Even the marquee deals wobble: CoreWeave's $9 billion bid for Core Scientific fell apart earlier this year.

Ye's answer is the discipline that runs through everything she says. The mega-sites and the marquee training leases will go to the giants. Cango is betting on the rest: the thousands of megawatts spread across small, independent miners, the power the giants can't easily touch. That, she thinks, is where a lot of AI inference will quietly run.

The Federal Reserve just reminded everyone who’s really in charge. Minutes from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, released on July 8, show policymakers held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% but are increasingly open to hiking them higher. Bitcoin responded by falling roughly 2.7% to around $62,240, because crypto may be decentralized, but it still dances to the Fed’s tune.

The key phrase buried in the minutes: “some policy firming would likely become appropriate” if inflation remains above the 2% target.

A divided but hawkish committee The committee wasn’t unanimous, but the lean was clear. Nine of the roughly 18-19 FOMC participants now forecast at least one rate hike before the end of 2026. Several members went further, explicitly stating they did not believe current borrowing costs were restrictive enough to tame inflation.

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The committee identified multiple inflation drivers that aren’t going away anytime soon: supply shocks stemming from Middle East instability, tariff-related price pressures, and increased capital expenditure in AI technology.

Massive spending on data centers, chips, and compute infrastructure is creating its own inflationary impulse. Companies are pouring capital into AI buildouts at a pace that’s pushing up costs for energy, construction, and specialized labor.

What rate hikes mean for crypto Bitcoin’s 2.7% decline after the minutes dropped illustrates this dynamic in real time. It wasn’t a panic-driven crash, but it was a clear signal that market participants are recalibrating their risk exposure based on the Fed’s evolving stance.

At 3.5%-3.75%, the federal funds rate is already at a level that puts meaningful pressure on borrowing costs across the economy. A majority of FOMC participants indicated that policy firming could be necessary if inflation persists above 2%.

The liquidity squeeze traders should watch During the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle in 2022-2023, Bitcoin lost more than 60% of its value from peak to trough.

Stablecoin yields and DeFi lending rates tend to track broader interest rate environments as well. If the Fed does tighten further, on-chain yields could shift in ways that redirect capital flows within the crypto ecosystem. Protocols offering fixed-rate products may see increased demand, while variable-rate lending platforms could face outflows as users seek stability.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Key takeaways:

War, rising oil prices and Strategy’s Bitcoin sales put extra pressure on BTC’s $60,000 support.Strategy’s Bitcoin sales and fears that a global regulatory crackdown on crypto is being reignited are adding to fragile crypto market conditions.Bitcoin traded down 3.5% on Wednesday as new developments in the US-Iran war pushed oil prices higher and Japan’s bond markets faced renewed stress. That combination triggered broader de-risking across markets. At the same time, concerns over potential Bitcoin sales from Strategy intensified, with traders now bracing for a possible correction below $60,000.

Nasdaq-100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s failed attempt to reclaim $64,500 on Monday coincided with a downtrend in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index. However, the stock market recovered some of its losses on Wednesday while Bitcoin was unable to bounce back from the $62,000 level. This underperformance suggests something else might be pressuring the cryptocurrency.

The surge in Brent crude oil to $74 from $68 the prior week raised inflationary risks due to disruptions in energy supplies following the official breakdown of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. US President Donald Trump declared the deal “over” after US strikes targeted Iranian sites in response to vessel attacks.

Higher energy costs feed directly into broader price pressures, reducing the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts and limiting odds of economic stimulus packages. 

Implied odds for FED Funds target rate on Sept. 16. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Traders are currently pricing 69% odds of interest rate hikes by September, up from 42% one month prior. This environment weighs heavily on risk assets, with Bitcoin still not widely perceived as an effective hedge.

Global economic uncertainty amid Strategy’s sell pressureAdding to the cautious mood, President Trump demanded an end to US trade with Spain at the NATO summit, labeling the key ally a “wasted cause” for failing to commit to new defense spending targets. Such trade frictions risk slowing global economic activity and amplifying fears of global economic contraction.

Japan 10-year government bonds yield. Source: TradingView

In Japan, government bond yields jumped to a 30-year high, reflecting fears over a lack of central bank independence as the government attempts to adjust the Japan Central Bank’s policy mandate to “achieve a stronger economy.” Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, which heightens the risk of global contagion.

The latest round of Bitcoin sales, totaling $216 million, announced by Strategy (MSTR US) on Monday, negatively surprised many after it was revealed that they occurred outside the core $1.25 billion Monetization Program. The company’s 8-K filings stated the program accounts only for proceeds used to fund its cash reserves.

Investors now fear persistent selling pressure from Strategy as the company manages its capital structure and debt obligations, with total annual dividends of $1.76 billion alone. Moreover, Strategy holds over $3.8 billion in convertible debt with the earliest call date before April 2027.

Strategy convertible debt maturity and market value, USD. Source: Strategy

On the regulatory front, documents show India’s central bank strongly backing policies that lean toward prohibiting crypto activities, including barring banks from any exposure to virtual assets to safeguard financial stability. The India tax department additionally highlighted risks of evasion.

The signals of tightening global oversight add another layer of negative pressure on Bitcoin’s price and market sentiment. Bitcoin bears remain in control, with risk appetite diminishing due to socio-political instability, prospects of a more restrictive US Fed monetary stance, and Strategy’s ongoing cash needs.

Sentiment is likely to remain fragile, making a retest of the $60,000 support level increasingly probable in the near term.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

The World’s Biggest Investor Is Trimming AI Stocks. Should You Worry?

If you recently received an email from “River Financial” asking you to update your user agreement or hop on a call, there’s a solid chance it wasn’t from River Financial at all. Fraudulent emails impersonating the Bitcoin-focused financial services firm are circulating, employing urgency-laced language designed to prompt immediate action.

The emails reportedly prompt recipients to take immediate action, either by clicking through to update agreements or by scheduling a call with what appears to be a company representative.

How the scam works Scammers craft emails that mimic the visual identity and tone of River Financial, a US-based Bitcoin brokerage and custody platform founded in 2019 by Alex Leishman and Andrew Benson.

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Clicking through likely leads to a phishing page designed to harvest login credentials, personal information, or both. The “schedule a call” variant adds a human element, potentially connecting victims with a live scammer who can extract even more sensitive data through conversation.

River Financial itself has not been compromised. The company’s legitimate operations, which emphasize full-reserve policies and Bitcoin-only services, remain intact. This is a case of brand impersonation, not a platform breach.

Why Bitcoin platforms are prime targets Phishing scams impersonating cryptocurrency platforms have been increasing in frequency. Bitcoin holders represent an attractive target for scammers because crypto transactions are generally irreversible. Once funds leave a wallet, there’s no bank to call and no chargeback to file.

River Financial has positioned itself as a more institutional-grade, trust-focused platform, having received early-stage investment from firms like Polychain Capital. Its emphasis on education and security makes the impersonation particularly ironic, and potentially more dangerous, because users may associate the brand with trustworthiness and let their guard down.

River has previously provided educational resources to help users recognize fraudulent communications. The standard advice applies here: check the sender’s email address carefully, don’t click links in unexpected emails, and navigate directly to the company’s website by typing the URL manually. If an email creates a sense of panic or urgency, that itself is a red flag.

What investors should watch for Legitimate companies almost never ask you to update agreements via email links with urgent deadlines. They don’t cold-schedule calls to discuss your account. And they certainly don’t threaten consequences for inaction in the way that phishing emails typically do.

Enable two-factor authentication on every platform you use, preferably with a hardware key or authenticator app rather than SMS. Use unique, strong passwords for each service. And if you receive a suspicious email, forward it to the company’s official support channel rather than engaging with anything in the email itself.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

In brief Bitcoin fell 2.89% this week, closing at $61,749 after failing to break resistance in the $64–65K range—the key zone bulls needed to reclaim to change the short-term narrative. Ethereum confirmed a weekly death cross for the first time in years, with its 50-week EMA now below its 200-week EMA, and prediction market traders now pricing a 72.3% chance ETH hits $1,500 before it sees $3,000 again. The broader crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 23 (extreme fear), spot Bitcoin ETFs just ended a 10-day, $2.7 billion outflow streak. The crypto market enters the second week of July in rough shape.

Bitcoin is holding on, but just barely, in the low $60,000s after briefly touching 21-month lows under $58,000 last week. Ethereum is below $1,750, down around 4% on the day, and more than 30% in the last year. The broader market is down, of course, and altcoins are down harder.

The total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH shed 30% since January. Crypto IPOs—Gemini, Bullish, BitGo—have imploded since their debut.

The mood is, understandably, grim.

But grim moods have a long history of being wrong at exactly the wrong time. Every major Bitcoin bear cycle since 2009 has ended with a flush, an extreme fear reading, and a moment where the obvious trade looked like going short.

Bitcoin has now been through four such cycles, and in nearly every case, a pre-halving compression phase—where price grinds lower and sentiment deteriorates before the next supply shock—preceded the next leg up. The next halving—when mining rewards, and therefore the supply of newly minted Bitcoin, are cut by 50%—is roughly 21 months away, which historically is when accumulation starts making uncomfortable sense.

The difference this cycle? Crypto is now mainstream.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional balance sheets, formal accounting standards changes, and a legislative framework for digital assets have all arrived since the last halving. Bitcoin now has a fundamentally different institutional status than it did when BTC was a niche hobby. That doesn't eliminate volatility—it just means the players in this bear market are wearing different suits than last time. Whether that speeds up or delays the bottom is an open question. The charts, for now, have their answer.

Bitcoin price: optimism with an asterisk

Bitcoin opened the week at $63,587, hit a high of $64,657, then closed lower, meaning that the bulls showed up, tried to push through, and failed. Bitcoin is trading hands at $61,749, down 2.89% in the week.

It’s important to note that BTC fell to $58,035 just days ago—a 21-month low—before bouncing.

The resistance zone that stopped the spike is exactly the one everyone was watching. The $64–65K area has been acting as a ceiling since early June, and this week's candle barely kissed it before retreating. On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are placing nearly 73% odds that Bitcoin touches $55,000 before $84,000. The sentiment among predictors flipped on June 2—before that, the smart money was leaning bullish.

Zooming out on the weekly chart, the Fibonacci retracement (natural support and resistance zones that happen during a trend) of that entire downleg from $82,833 places the $73,245 and $70,284 zone as with the most activity.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, is at 30.7. The ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction on scale from 0 to 100. When it’s above 25, this tells traders that an actual trend is in place, and 30.7 is solidly there. Based on directionality, bears are in control.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, sits at 36.8. RSI measures momentum, similarly on a 0–100 scale: Above 70 signals overbought conditions and usually triggers profit-taking; below 30 signals oversold conditions that typically attract buyers. At 36.8, Bitcoin is close to oversold but hasn't crossed the threshold yet. The technical setup suggests selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion—but "approaching" isn't "done." Right now markets appear to be panic selling.

One note of caution for the bears: The picture painted by the exponential moving averages remains bullish. Bitcoin's 50-week exponential moving average, or EMA, is still above its 200-week EMA. When this happens, it forms a pattern that traders refer to as a “golden cross,” which in this case is technically still intact. But it's narrowing fast. The inverse of a golden cross is a death cross, and if it forms on the weekly chart it would represent a structural shift that very few Bitcoin cycles have survived without a deeper flush first.

Thankfully for permabulls, this has not happened in a while.

Reasons for the bullish case are mostly fundamental:

Spot Bitcoin ETFs just snapped a 10-day, $2.7 billion outflow streak with a $221.7 million single-day inflow on July 2, and have since pulled in roughly $510 million. On-chain data from Glassnode shows long-term holders have returned to accumulation after an extended period of distribution, with buying activity broadening across wallet cohorts.

The Fear & Greed Index at 23, registering “extreme fear,” is historically a contrarian signal—not a guarantee, but a pattern. Some indicators approaching oversold from the weekly chart suggest the selling may be closer to exhausted than just starting.

$BTC has seen a series of bullish patterns broken, evidence of the power of the downtrend. Will this 'W' be the one that breaks the trend?

— John Bollinger (@bbands) July 2, 2026

For the bearish scenario, the technicals are more apparent for those focusing on shorter time frames:

Bitcoin failed to break the exact resistance everyone was watching. ADX at 30.7 with bearish directional index confirms an active downtrend with real momentum. Year-to-date ETF outflows are still negative. Citi downgraded its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $82,000 with a bear case at $53,000. The Fibonacci target below current price at $57,735 is still the most visible technical magnet on the chart. Myriad's prediction market—where money, not opinions, speaks—says 72.3% chance of $55K first.

Ethereum price: The death cross nobody wanted

Ethereum is trading at $1,729.7, down 3.06% from its $1,784 weekly open. That number is painful enough. But the bigger story isn't the weekly candle—it's what just happened on the weekly chart under the hood.

Ethereum has just confirmed a weekly death cross. The 50-week exponential moving average has crossed below the 200-week EMA for the first time in years. The upcoming days/weeks will be key to define positions for long-term trades if the cross extends and is not invalidated.

On shorter timeframes, death crosses happen regularly and can reverse quickly. On the weekly chart, they represent months of structural deterioration, and they tend to define entire market phases rather than single moves.

Ethereum's daily chart has been in death cross since November 2025, when ETH peaked near $4,100 before beginning its extended decline. That daily bearish structure has now propagated to the weekly frame—a longer-timeframe confirmation that the bear trend isn't a blip.

Traders on Myriad appear as bearish on ETH as they do on BTC, likewise pricing in a 72% chance Ethereum hits $1,500 before $3,000. These odds flipped in May—before that, the market was closer to 50-50 between the two outcomes. The gap between options is now at its largest since June, suggesting conviction has moved firmly into the bearish camp among traders putting actual money on the line.

The Fibonacci retracement on ETH's downleg from $2,465.8 to $1,505.1 defines the zone between $2,098.9 and $1,985.5 as the ones with the most activity to watch for. Current price at $1,729.7 is pinned near the Fib level at $1,731.8. Below that, the next meaningful technical reference is the $1,500 price zone. That's exactly the doom scenario Myriad traders are betting on.

The ADX reads 26.5 with bearish directionality—same story as Bitcoin, just more pronounced. A trend is confirmed, the direction is down, and the bears have the momentum. RSI at 36.9 mirrors Bitcoin's reading almost exactly: bearish, approaching oversold but not there yet.

Some hopium for the bulls: Weekly death crosses on Ethereum have historically appeared around the final stages of bear market cycles—not the middle of them. In prior cycles, the three-day death cross frequently coincided with or immediately preceded significant bottoms. In other words, this is the panic zone in which many people wait to buy the asset for cheap.

If that pattern holds, the pain may be closer to ending than beginning. ETH spot ETFs turned positive on July 2 with $29.1 million in inflows. RSI is approaching oversold on the weekly—a zone that has historically been a strong accumulation signal for patient buyers.

Now for the bears: A weekly death cross is a new structural reality, not a temporary signal—it took months to form and typically takes months to reverse. US spot ETH ETFs logged a record 17 consecutive days of net outflows totaling $401 million in May, followed by another 10-day streak in June.

The Fibonacci target of $1,500 is technically the next major level, and it's the exact number Myriad's 72.3% majority is betting on. Citi's bear case for ETH is $1,094. The weekly structure doesn't give bulls much to work with until the price of Ethereum reclaims the $2,000 area—a 15.6% climb from current levels that would require a sustained trend reversal that no indicator yet confirms.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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Bitcoin gave up its gains from the previous two sessions as escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran sparked a broader risk-off move across cryptocurrency markets.

Notable Statistics:

Coinglass data shows 128,517 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for $369.27 million.        SoSoValue data shows net inflows of $21.4 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $26.9 million. In the past 24 hours, top losers include Jupiter, Aerodrome Finance and Pi. Notable Developments:

Trader Notes:

Analyst Kevin expects Bitcoin to sweep long liquidity between current levels and $44,000 during the third phase of the bear market.

He plans to aggressively accumulate BTC if leveraged long positions are liquidated and also take additional profits on the short position initiated at $79,000.

Trader KillaXBT says sentiment between bulls and bears remains surprisingly balanced.

He believes bears have roughly two months to drive Bitcoin lower in line with the four-year cycle.

This will potentially create what he sees as the final opportunity to buy BTC in the $50,000 range before a longer-term recovery.

Trader Jelle noted Bitcoin has formed a weekly bullish divergence on both the regular RSI and stochastic RSI, with the latter beginning to turn higher.

These are signs that selling pressure is weakening and the setup reinforces the strategy of continuing to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin while accumulating more.

Image: Shutterstock

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6 hours ago

Eli Ben-Sasson, Zcash founder and and CEO of StarkWare, the company behind Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution Starknet, publicly argued that Bitcoin 21 million supply cap “doesn’t make sense.” He is also proposing instead that the network adopt a hard ceiling on the annual issuance rate.

Ben-Sasson’s core argument centers on key loss. Because private keys are permanently lost over time, the coins attached to those keys remain on the ledger but fall out of practical circulation, making the usable supply unknowable and trending downward. His proposed fix: replace the fixed total-coin ceiling with a fixed inflation rate ceiling. His specific figure was 4% per year, which he described as “a reasonable upper bound on human population expansion.”

Capping the supply of Bitcoin at 21M doesn't make sense. Beacuse over time, keys will be lost. In fact, as time goes to infinity, all keys will be lost.

I strongly support a clear monetary policy with an absolute upper bound on the # of Bitcoins in the future. Say, fix a max…

— Eli Ben-Sasson | Starknet.io (@EliBenSasson) July 7, 2026 The shift is from capping the stock of coins to capping the annual flow of new issuance, a distinction that sounds technical but carries enormous structural implications for every holder who priced Bitcoin’s scarcity into their position.

Discover: The Best Token Presales

Zcash Co-Founder Right about Bitcoin?Alongside the lost-key argument, the Zcash co-founder, Ben-Sasson, flagged Bitcoin miner security as a compounding concern. The block reward currently stands at 3.125 BTC following the April 2024 halving, and it will continue to decline on schedule, eventually reaching zero around 2140. As the subsidy shrinks, miners depend increasingly on transaction fee revenue to stay economically viable, and a network that cannot sustain miner participation becomes progressively more vulnerable to attack. Ben-Sasson described this risk as “looming large on the horizon.”

Don’t Miss Out on Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop on ByBit

This part of the argument has genuine traction among protocol researchers, independent of whether one accepts the rest of Ben-Sasson’s thesis. Bitcoin’s long-run security model is a real open question – the assumption that fee revenue will fully compensate for the disappearing block reward is unproven at scale. Raising that issue does not require agreeing that the supply cap should change.

The lost-coin case is harder to quantify precisely. We estimated the effective circulating cap at roughly 18.5 million BTC once permanently inaccessible coins are excluded, with Ledger placing lost supply as high as 4 million BTC as of late 2024. Approximately 19.9 million BTC have already been mined, or around 95% of the eventual total, leaving only about 1.1 million BTC remaining to be issued over the next century-plus. The attrition from key loss is real.

Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

This Won’t Go NowhereThe governance math is unambiguous. Changing Bitcoin’s supply cap would require a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal, new client software, and adoption by miners, nodes, and users. Approximately 97% of Bitcoin nodes currently enforce the existing supply schedule. A cap change is not technically impossible, but a fork that dilutes scarcity would split the chain and likely destroy much of the value it was ostensibly trying to preserve. The debate around Bitcoin’s role as a strategic reserve asset makes any hint of supply flexibility even more politically toxic in the current environment.

The community’s divisibility counterargument is also worth understanding precisely. Bitcoin’s 21 million coins subdivide into 2.1 quadrillion satoshis, providing more than enough unit granularity to accommodate adoption at any realistic price level. Ben-Sasson’s rebuttal, that “satoshis would also trend toward zero in absolute terms if key loss continues indefinitely,” is technically correct but operates on a timescale measured in centuries, not trading horizons.

This is a terrible idea. The fact that you can think of changing a protocol built around scarcity and decentralization. Once one major change like this is made then others will come on in and do the same. You're destroying the idea of what Bitcoin set out to be .Why don't you…

— Angel Akiyta (@AngelAkiyta) July 7, 2026 What makes Ben-Sasson’s intervention notable is not its probability of success. It has none. What matters is who is raising the argument and why: a prominent ZK-proof technologist with credibility in the Ethereum ecosystem, citing miner security degradation as the mechanism that could eventually force the conversation.

Don’t Miss Out on Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop on ByBit

Bitcoin and altcoins continue to experience volatile movements due to both geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.

While predicting both bullish and bearish trends for BTC and altcoins, the latest analysis comes from expert analyst Michaël van de Poppe.

Poppe, covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, shared his analysis from his X account.

Ethereum is a Better Investment Option Than Bitcoin! First, he stated that Ethereum is a better investment option than Bitcoin in the future.

The analyst noted that Ethereum has been remarkably resilient despite recent declines, returning to an uptrend for the first time in a year.

In this context, Poppe added that Ethereum maintained its position without experiencing a significant drop during Bitcoin’s recent correction.

Secondly, the analyst who examined Bitcoin stated that there is still no problem with the outlook for BTC.

According to the analyst, the BTC price continues to trade above $60,000 despite the renewed outbreak of war in the Middle East.

At this point, the analyst stated that the critical level for BTC is $61,000.

The analyst also said that Bitcoin has either reached its bottom or is going through an accumulation phase.

Finally, the analyst stated that he expects a correction in Bitcoin and altcoins in September/October, followed by a new major uptrend across all markets in the fourth quarter.

What’s the Situation in Solana? Poppe recently reviewed Solana and stated that he maintains his positive outlook for SOL.

The analyst notes that Solana is still in an uptrend, stating that the year-long downtrend against Bitcoin has been broken.

In this context, the analyst stated that he does not expect this trend to stop, and believes it is only a matter of time before the SOL price trades above $100 again.

The analyst, who argued that SOL should be in everyone’s portfolio, said that the situation is actually simple:

“SOL is in an uptrend against the Dollar and BTC.
Buy the dip when it falls 10-30% against BTC.”

*This is not investment advice.

Follow our Telegram and Twitter account now for exclusive news, analytics and on-chain data!

Crypto markets declined earlier today, Wednesday, July 8, after renewed military action between Iran and the United States weighed on investor sentiment.

President Donald Trump said the recent ceasefire with Iran was "over" after fresh exchanges of airstrikes. Speaking alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump said the agreement was no longer in effect. He later added that the United States would likely strike Iran again tonight, accusing Iran of violating the ceasefire.

WTI crude oil climbed more than 5% to over $75 per barrel, while Bitcoin fell to an intraday low near $61,800 before trading around $62,000, down roughly 2% over the past 24 hours.

Liquidations Accelerate the Selloff The decline triggered widespread liquidations across the crypto market. According to CoinGlass, 139,860 traders were liquidated over the past 24 hours, totaling $396.88 million. More than $300 million came from long positions as falling prices forced leveraged traders to exit.

Altcoins also came under pressure. Solana dropped below $77 and traded about 5.8% lower over the same period.

ETF Inflows Offer a Different Signal Despite weaker prices, institutional investors continued adding exposure to Bitcoin. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $21.44 million in net inflows on Tuesday, July 7, extending a three-day streak that also included inflows of $265.69 million on July 6 and $221.72 million on July 2. It marked the first three-day inflow run since record ETF outflows began in June.

BlackRock's $IBIT led the latest session with $54.8 million in inflows, offsetting withdrawals from Fidelity's $FBTC and $ARKB. Total Bitcoin ETF assets have recovered to $77.26 billion from a June 30 low of $70.95 billion.

While the inflows remain modest compared with earlier in the year, they ended the record streak of ETF outflows that dominated June and suggest the relentless institutional selling may have run its course. Markets will now watch the upcoming U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve's late July meeting for confirmation that the recovery can continue.

Solana Fundamentals Remain Resilient Although Solana declined alongside the broader market, several underlying indicators continued to improve. Spot Solana ETFs attracted $5.74 million in net inflows over the past week, one of their strongest weekly performances in 5 weeks. Total net inflows have now reached $1.15 billion.

Cross chain activity also remained healthy, with nearly $40 million worth of assets bridged to Solana during the past week.

Network usage has also stayed strong. Earlier this week, Solana reclaimed the top position among all blockchains in daily Network Real Economic Value after 4 months. The network recently surpassed 1 billion weekly non-vote transactions and delivered record Q2 results across tokenized equities, dApp revenue, and perpetual futures trading.

For now, investors appear to be balancing improving long term market participation against near term geopolitical risks that continue to drive volatility across both traditional and digital asset markets.

Read More on SolanaFloor Sanctum Mobile App Attracts Over 9,000 Users Following Strong Launch Week
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According to Arkham’s monitoring, an address labeled SpaceX has transferred Bitcoin for the first time in six months. Data shows that SpaceX address 15atF initiated a BTC test transaction to SpaceX address bc1q9, worth approximately $88, which is suspected to be a test transfer.

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Ondo Perps' trading volume has surpassed $2 billion within 48 hours of its launch.

According to official sources, Ondo announced that the cumulative trading volume of its Ondo Perps public beta exceeded $2 billion within the first 48 hours after its launch.

3 hours ago

Michael Saylor: Concerns over Bitcoin block space shortage are gradually easing, while global transfers still maintain low fees.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor published an article noting that after a decade of concerns over insufficient block space and controversies surrounding non-monetary use cases, Bitcoin still has no so-called "spam transaction problem." Currently, Bitcoin network fees stand at approximately 1 sat/vB, enabling anyone to quickly transfer any amount of Bitcoin globally for roughly $0.3. Free market mechanisms have been consistently resolving the challenges facing Bitcoin's block space.

3 hours ago

Sources: Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz if the US launches an attack.

According to CCTV News, sources from Iran’s security department stated that if the U.S. launches any attack on Iran, Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz and retaliate against enemy targets with a response at least twice the scale of the strike it receives. U.S. President Donald Trump said on the 8th while attending the NATO summit in Turkey that he is very unhappy with Iran, the U.S. military “could strike Iran hard again tonight” and may also reimpose a naval blockade on Iran.

3 hours ago

BNP Paribas: Merger between Tesla and SpaceX is far from imminent

BNP Paribas analysts have expressed doubt over the recent possibility of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX. "The massive cash burn and significant regulatory risks of both companies complicate a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla," they stated. The investor sentiment for Tesla, which has improved amid merger speculation, may be overly optimistic, and the analysts maintained their "underperform" rating and $280 target price for the firm. "We are concerned that Tesla will face daunting KPIs in its robotaxi and Optimus businesses over the next two years, which will pose downside risks to its core operations before any SpaceX merger is actually realized."

3 hours ago

Trump: Will See If He Can Continue Keeping Oil Prices Low, Notes That Oil Prices Should Remain Low

US President Trump said, "We will see if we can continue to push oil prices lower. We should maintain low oil prices."

3 hours ago

A whale has aggregated approximately $5.85 million worth of HYPE and LIT assets into the same wallet.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a crypto whale has transferred approximately $5.85 million worth of HYPE and LIT assets into a single wallet, with the funds likely accumulated through Galaxy Digital. The transferred assets consist of 78,100 HYPE tokens (valued at around $5.25 million) and 263,700 LIT tokens (worth approximately $601,000).

3 hours ago

Elon Musk’s SpaceX-linked wallet address moved Bitcoin after 6 months, sparking speculation in crypto and stock markets. The transfer coincided with massive profit booking in SPCX stock that sent the stock below its IPO debut price.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX Wallet Transfers Bitcoin According to Arkham Intelligence data on July 8, a wallet address linked to Elon Musk’s SpaceX moved Bitcoin for the first time in six months. The transfer triggered selling speculations despite the firm moved just $88 worth of BTC.

The firm last moved more than 1016 BTC worth nearly $100 million. SpaceX wallet still holds almost 18,712 BTC, valued at $1.16 billion at the current market price. Notably, the destination address now holds 614 BTC worth $38 million.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX Moves Bitcoin. Source: Arkham Outflows from SpaceX to other unknown wallets increased significantly last year near the October 10 crypto market crash. The transfers gradually stopped as the firm’s focus switched to its SpaceX IPO.

The latest transfer comes amid Bitcoin selling by digital asset treasuries such as Michael Saylor’s Strategy, MARA Holdings, Nakamoto Holdings, and Sequans Communications. Last week, Michael Saylor’s Strategy announced Bitcoin sale worth $216 million.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin price is trading above $62K, almost 2% lower amid renewed US-Iran strikes. President Trump cast doubt on the future of the cease-fire with Iran after both sides traded attacks, saying “I think it’s over.”

SPCX Stock Extends Fall to 25% SPCX stock closed 6.83% lower at $149.47 on Tuesday, falling to an intraday low of $148.86 amid massive profit booking. The stock price has dropped below its IPO debut price.

The stock dropped despite Elon Musk-led space exploration and AI company SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100. While it sparked long-term bullish sentiment among investors due to potential influx of investments, but stock remains under selling pressure.

SpaceX stock is now down more than 25% within just a month. The stock has climbed 0.49% in premarket trading hours on Wednesday.

As CoinGape reported, Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, initiated coverage of SPCX stock, setting higher price targets. Morgan Stanley analysts are extremely bullish on Elon Musk’s SpaceX stock, setting a price target of $300.

If you’re looking to earn passive income with crypto, check out our 8 proven ways to earn passive income in July 2026.

Germany’s seized Bitcoin wallet has been one of the market’s most obvious supply stories. Now the discussion is starting to change from how much BTC might still be sold to how close the selling pressure may be to ending.

The useful way to read this is not as a guaranteed price signal, but as a fresh piece of information in a market that is trying to sort real developments from noise. That does not mean Bitcoin is suddenly free of sell-side risk. Mt. Gox repayments, miners, ETFs, and macro flows all still matter. But a shrinking government wallet can change sentiment because it turns an open-ended fear into something with a visible endpoint.

For more details, visit the official Arkham platform.

TL;DR Arkham-tracked Germany-linked wallets now hold less than 20% of the seized BTC balance.The market has treated the transfers as a major source of sell pressure.If the balance keeps shrinking, traders may soon start pricing the end of that specific overhang. From pressure to exhaustion The significance of a wallet falling below 20% of its original seized balance is simple: the worst of that specific supply event may be closer to passing. Traders have spent days watching exchange transfers and assuming those coins could hit the market.

That does not mean Bitcoin is suddenly free of sell-side risk. Mt. Gox repayments, miners, ETFs, and macro flows all still matter. But a shrinking government wallet can change sentiment because it turns an open-ended fear into something with a visible endpoint.

The Market Read Do not overstate certainty; frame it as a visible supply overhang nearing exhaustion.

That is the balance readers need to keep in mind. Crypto markets are quick to turn every update into a single-direction trade, but most durable stories are more layered than that. They matter because they change positioning, incentives, infrastructure, or regulation over time.

What Comes Into Focus Now From here, the important thing is follow-through. If the source data, company update, filing, or on-chain record continues to move in the same direction, this can become part of a larger trend. If it stalls, it is still useful as a snapshot of where attention is sitting today.

For traders and readers, the cleaner takeaway is to separate the confirmed development from the speculation around it. The confirmed part is what deserves coverage. The speculation is what needs caution.

For Bitcoin readers specifically, the story is useful because it gives a clearer frame for the next few sessions. It tells them what to watch, which part of the market is reacting, and where the first obvious risk sits. That is more valuable than simply saying a token, company, or regulator has made a move. The useful work is in connecting the update to liquidity, positioning, adoption, enforcement, or user behaviour without pretending that any single headline controls the whole market.

The practical question now is whether this remains an isolated update or becomes part of a chain of follow-through. A second filing, another wallet move, fresh dashboard data, a new governance vote, or a stronger market reaction can all turn a clean single-day story into a broader narrative. Without that follow-through, it still matters, but more as a marker of where attention was concentrated on July 8 than as a complete trend on its own.

That distinction is especially important in a market where headlines can travel faster than context. A source-backed update gives readers something firmer to work with, but it does not remove liquidity risk, execution risk, or the chance that traders fade the initial reaction once the first wave of attention passes.

In that sense, the headline is only the starting point. The better read is to watch how builders, exchanges, funds, wallets, regulators, or large holders respond after the first announcement has moved through the feed.

This report is based on information from platform.arkhamintelligence.com.

This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.

SpaceX has transferred Bitcoin for the first time in six months, while its newly listed SPCX shares have fallen more than 25% from recent highs despite joining the Nasdaq-100.

Summary

SpaceX moved Bitcoin for the first time in six months, though the transfer was worth only $88. SPCX shares have fallen more than 25% despite the company’s fast-tracked Nasdaq-100 inclusion. JPMorgan estimates the index addition could drive about $4.3 billion in passive fund buying. According to Arkham Intelligence, a wallet linked to Elon Musk’s SpaceX moved just $88 worth of Bitcoin on July 8, ending a six-month period without on-chain activity. Although the transfer was tiny, it quickly fueled speculation across crypto markets because the company’s wallets have historically remained inactive for long periods.

SPACEX JUST MOVED BITCOIN

A tagged SpaceX address just moved Bitcoin for the first time in 6 months. SpaceX (15atF) made a test transaction of $88 of BTC to SpaceX (bc1q9).

Is SpaceX about to move more BTC? pic.twitter.com/vQITSDKtGI

— Arkham (@arkham) July 8, 2026 Arkham Intelligence data showed that SpaceX still holds about 18,712 BTC, worth roughly $1.16 billion at current prices. The receiving wallet now contains 614 BTC valued at about $38 million. The blockchain analytics platform also showed that the company’s previous major transfer involved more than 1,016 BTC worth nearly $100 million.

Why did a small Bitcoin transfer attract attention? While the latest transaction involved only a nominal amount, it arrived after a series of larger Bitcoin sales by corporate treasury holders. Strategy, MARA Holdings, Nakamoto Holdings, and Sequans Communications have all disclosed Bitcoin sales in recent weeks.

Last week, Strategy announced a Bitcoin sale worth about $216 million, adding to investor sensitivity around transfers from large institutional wallets.

Past activity has also added to the attention. Arkham Intelligence data indicates that outflows from SpaceX to unidentified wallets accelerated around the crypto market decline on Oct. 10 last year before slowing as the company’s attention turned toward its public listing.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded above $62,000 but remained nearly 2% lower on the day as geopolitical tensions weighed on risk assets. The decline followed renewed U.S.-Iran strikes, while President Donald Trump questioned whether the cease-fire between the two countries would hold after both sides exchanged fresh attacks.

Why has SPCX remained under pressure despite Nasdaq-100 inclusion? Selling pressure has continued in SpaceX shares even after the company secured a place in the Nasdaq-100. SPCX closed 6.83% lower at $149.47 on Tuesday after touching an intraday low of $148.86, leaving the stock below its IPO debut price and more than 25% below levels seen about a month ago. Premarket trading on Wednesday showed the shares edging up 0.49%.

Source: Yahoo Finance Nasdaq confirmed that SpaceX qualified for accelerated inclusion under revised eligibility rules that allow certain large newly listed companies to enter the Nasdaq-100 much sooner than previously permitted. The company officially joined the benchmark before the opening bell on July 7, making it one of the fastest IPOs to enter the technology-focused index.

According to JPMorgan, the index addition is expected to generate roughly $4.3 billion in compulsory buying by passive exchange-traded funds and other index-tracking portfolios that must rebalance their holdings to match the Nasdaq-100. Even with that expected inflow, investors continued taking profits after the stock’s strong rally following its market debut.

Wall Street has nevertheless remained constructive on the stock. As previously reported by crypto.news, analysts at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup have initiated coverage on SpaceX with higher valuation targets.

Morgan Stanley has taken the most bullish stance, assigning a $300 price target while arguing that the company’s long-term growth prospects remain intact despite the recent pullback.

Strike, the bitcoin financial services firm run by CEO Jack Mallers, launched a bitcoin-backed loan product on July 7 that removes price-triggered liquidations for the life of the loan, according to Strike's own FAQ. The product, called "volatility-proof loans," strips out the 65% LTV warning, 70%…

Strike, the bitcoin financial services firm run by CEO Jack Mallers, launched a bitcoin-backed loan product on July 7 that removes price-triggered liquidations for the life of the loan, according to Strike's own FAQ. The product, called "volatility-proof loans," strips out the 65% LTV warning, 70% margin call and 85% automatic partial liquidation that apply to Strike's standard bitcoin loan.

Collateral stays untouched no matter how far bitcoin's price falls, Strike says, as long as the borrower keeps making payments. Missing an interest or maturity payment still triggers a 10-day grace period, after which Strike can partially liquidate collateral to cover what's owed.

What Borrowers Give UpThe protection comes at a cost. Volatility-proof loans cap initial LTV at 45%, versus 50% on Strike's standard product, cutting how much a borrower can draw against the same collateral, according to the FAQ. A borrower posting $100,000 in bitcoin can access $45,000, down from $50,000, per Bitcoin.com's reporting.

Terms shrink to six months from twelve, rates carry a roughly 2.95-percentage-point premium over the standard 7.49%-11.25% APR range, and borrowers cannot retrieve collateral mid-term or switch a loan into or out of the structure once it's originated, Strike's FAQ states.

Mallers' PitchMallers announced the product on X, writing "No margin calls. No price liquidations. No matter how far bitcoin falls, your bitcoin doesn't move," according to Bitcoin.com. He clarified the product removes market risk, not repayment risk: "That's why we call it 'volatility-proof,' not 'liquidation-proof.'"

The launch follows criticism of Strike's lending practices last year, when on-chain analyst Willy Woo called out Mallers over risk in the standard loan structure. Strike's standard loans, launched in May 2025, remain available alongside the new product, which is offered only in select US states, excluding California, New York and Texas, Bitcoin.com reported.

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Cover image via depositphotos.com Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Amid active debates over the sale of part of its Bitcoin holdings for operational needs, Strategy's leadership is trying to seize the initiative from critics. CEO Phong Le defended the company's new corporate strategy by publishing strong financial results for the past three months.

From April 6 to July 6, the company increased its Bitcoin reserves by 10% and now holds a record 843,775 BTC, Le said.

For the 3 months April 6 to July 6, 2026, we increased our Bitcoin holdings 10% to 843,775 Bitcoin, increased our USD reserve 13% to $2.55B, and more than doubled YTD BTC Yield from 3.7% to 7.8%. $MSTR $BTC https://t.co/3SqgyK5mwu

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— Phong Le (@phongle) July 8, 2026 These figures came at a moment when the market began to question whether the course of the largest institutional Bitcoin investor remains unchanged. The 10% increase announced by Strategy's CEO is meant to prove that the net inflow of coins continues, while the company's operational resilience has improved. 

Strategy's dollar cash cushion increased by 13% to $2.55 billion, while the internal yield of its Bitcoin strategy since the start of the year more than doubled, rising from 3.7% to 7.8%.

Can Strategy's new Bitcoin framework save the firm's slumping debt?Company founder Michael Saylor quickly moved to clarify the logic behind this large-scale shift. He said that Strategy has finally outgrown the format of a passive accumulation wallet and now divides its assets into three different financial instruments.

In the new architecture, Bitcoin itself is defined as Digital Capital. The STRC token, whose obligations triggered the sales, serves as Digital Credit, while MSTR shares remain equity capital.

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Strategy's financial vehicles performance year-to-date 2026, Source: TradingView"Different instruments for different investors. But one strategy," Saylor said, explaining that targeted sales are part of balance sheet management.

Whether the record report will help protect the company's new flexible model in the eyes of investors remains an open question. 

So far, the stock market's reaction has been mixed: over the first eight days of July, the price of MSTR common shares rose by 9.4%, while debt instruments are under clear pressure, with instruments such as STRC and STRD trading significantly below their $100 par value, at $86.56 and $61.68, respectively.

Table of contents

Retail traders have changed their minds four times in a single month, and the latest swing is raising eyebrows. Bitcoin’s bounce from $58.1K to the $64.1K area has flipped the crowd’s mood to “higher” again, according to the Santiment update. The speed of the reversal is the story, not the price level itself. In early June participants were calling for lower prices. Mid-June flipped to bullish. Late June turned fearful after the dip. Now they are back to expecting upside.

Chart watchers will note that every time the crowd got loud about direction this month, the market did something else. That is the mechanic Santiment is pointing toward—a counter-signal tendency where strongly unanimous social expectations tend to precede reversals or stalls. It does not promise a top, but it does suggest the herd is arriving late to the move.

Why the “Lower vs. Higher” Chart Matters Right Now The social trends query plots how aggressively the crowd is calling for “lower” or “higher” prices. When the ratio swings sharply into bullish territory after a quick price recovery, it often indicates that latecomers have rushed in. Bitcoin’s move back toward $64.1K has not been accompanied by a structural shift in liquidity or a major catalyst. Instead, the bid appears reactive, driven partly by relief that the sub-$60K break did not cascade.

That reaction matters for positioning. If buyers were not loading up during the panic, but only after the 10% bounce, the rally is drawing from thin fuel. In this light, the crowd’s bullishness is less a confirmation and more a flag for potential heat. Crypto rarely runs on consensus.

Short-Term Bullishness and the Altcoin Echo The same sentiment tracker shows that altcoins are getting caught up in the mood shift. Enthusiasm around smaller caps has ticked up alongside Bitcoin’s recovery, consistent with the risk-on reflex that takes hold after a scare subsides. This mirrors patterns seen earlier in the cycle where altcoin sentiment lagged BTC’s move by days, then amplified when the crowd grew comfortable.

But the very reactivity of retail mood—from fearful to optimistic in a week—underscores how fragile conviction remains. Participants are reacting to price, not fundamentals. That reactive posture is why Santiment’s chart functions as a market-mechanics signal rather than a belief survey. It tracks what people are shouting, and historically, shouting is not how sustained legs higher begin.

Traders watching the same data will likely look for a flush in open interest or a brief stabilization under resistance before trusting a continuation. The absence of a spot-led breakout and the rapid sentiment bounce reinforce the idea that the market needs a period of sideways digestion. For altcoins, that means the bounce in names that recently suffered sharp drawdowns may be a scalper’s trade rather than a genuine rotation.

What the Signal Leaves Unanswered Santiment does not assign a directional forecast. The data simply highlights that the crowd is leaning heavily in one direction, and that leaning tends to be wrong at extremes. What remains uncertain is whether this is an extreme or just a short-term emotional spike that will cool without a major correction. Macro flows, ETF demand, and regulatory developments all sit outside this dataset.

The broader environment still carries unresolved variables. Legislative wrangling continues around key policy bills—something that can shift institutional posture even as retail sentiment dances. The retail mood meter captures one layer of the market. On-chain flows, exchange reserves, and derivative positioning paint a fuller picture that may confirm or conflict with the social signal. For now, the crowd pendulum has swung back to “higher,” and as Santiment’s historical pattern suggests, that is when bulls should keep one foot near the door.

AUTHOR

Brenda is a writer with three years of experience specializing in cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies. She graduated from the University of Mombasa with a degree in Psychology. She has worked at Cryptopolitan and Blockchain Reporter.

Bitcoin’s June 2026 low near $58,000 does not meet the on-chain conditions that marked prior cycle bottoms. The floor sits below realized price, near $54,000, over a horizon that extends into Q4 2026.

Sentiment has reached extreme fear, while valuation and on-chain metrics sit above the levels recorded at the 2015, 2018, and 2022 lows. Every prior cycle bottomed below realized price. A move under roughly $54,000 is the minimum condition. The cycle bottom requires financial conditions to stop tightening: falling real yields, a weaker dollar, and receding Fed hike expectations. Bitcoin fell to roughly $57,950 on July 1, 2026, its lowest level in about 21 months, and closed June down near 20%. The decline places price roughly 50% below the October 2025 peak.

Late June also produced the first weekly close below the 200-week moving average. the average of the last 200 weekly closes, since 2023. The mood is bearish enough to feel like a bottom. The data says the bottom conditions are not in place.

The Technical Floor Sits Below Current Price Three levels sit below current price: drawdown from the cycle high, the 200-week moving average, and realized price. None has reached its prior-bottom reading.

The first is drawdown from the cycle high, the percentage decline from the peak. The current decline of roughly 50% is shallow against prior cycle lows of 77% to 85%.

The second is the 200-week moving average, a long-term trend line that has historically acted as cycle bottom zone. This level marked the bottom at the 2015, 2018, and 2022 lows, and currently is in the $62K-$63K range. Price closed below it first time in late June 2026.

The 2015 and 2018 breaches were reatively brief. The 2022 cycle was the exception: price spent roughly 16 months below the line, from June 2022 to October 2023. The FTX collapse in November 2022 prolonged that stay, forcing sustained selling and turning the 200-week average into a resistance. This cycle carries no comparable credit event, so a breach of similar length is unlikely. But still, the break below 200W moving average will still extend beyond a single week.

The third is realized price, the aggregate cost basis of the network, or the average price at which all coins last moved on-chain, which sits near $54,000 as of early July 2026. The metric matters because it converts price into a measure of aggregate profitability: when spot trades below realized price, the average coin is held at an unrealized loss, the condition of maximum holder stress that has historically exhausted forced selling and formed the base of each cycle.

Price has not yet touched this range. At every prior cycle bottom, it closed well below realized price. This is why many Bitcoin analysts have been flagging this level as a cycle-bottom target. The base case is a low that touches or modestly breaches the $53,000–$54,000 range, a shallow undercut in the low-$50,000s. That would be far milder than the 15%-28% realized price breaches seen in prior cycles. A deeper move toward the mid-$40,000s would require a forced-seller event on the 2022 FTX collapse scale. (We view this as a tail risk rather than the base case. The clearest candidate would be Strategy: if it were forced to liquidate Bitcoin to meet its debt, preferred equity, or other financing obligations, the resulting supply shock could produce a capitulation comparable to the 2022 FTX-driven selloff)

The Macro Floor Depends on Easing Financial Conditions Price levels alone do not set the low. Macro conditions also matter, especially for non-yielding assets. Just like gold, bitcoin is also a non-yielding asset, which is both highly affected by the real interest rate. When real yield rises, the opportunity cost of holding a zero-yield asset rises. Both assets moved a similar path in the first half of 2026, gold posted its worst quarter since 2013 as real yield climbed, and bitcoin sold off alongside.

Real yields, measured by inflation-adjusted Treasury yields, remained restrictive through the first half of 2026. The 5-year TIPS yield rose from around 1.3% in early May to 1.98% in early July. The dollar index (DXY) held firm over the same period. Fed hike expectations turned restrictive: at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair on June 17, 2026, the committee held at 3.50–3.75% while the dot plot lifted the median year-end rate projection to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, and the market began pricing a hike by year-end.

The sharp drop in Bitcoin coincided with the rise in real rates since May.

However, we view the dot plot’s shift reflects an energy shock rather than broad price pressure. The 2026 Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent crude above $120 at its spring peak and lifted May CPI to 4.2% year-on-year. That shock is now reversing: a US–Iran ceasefire has restored Strait shipping toward pre-war volumes, and Brent has fallen back near $70 as of early July 2026, close to its late-February level.

As the energy impulse fades through the second half of 2026, the rate-hike expectation embedded in the dot plot should fade with it.

Bottom Line Bitcoin’s June low near $58,000 does not meet the conditions that marked prior cycle bottoms. The minimum condition is a close below realized price, in the $53,000–$54,000 range, and history shows price can hold below that level for months. The timing of the bottom price will likely align with the Q4 2026 window and requires financial conditions to stop tightening.

In the near-term, real yields and rate-hike fears remain elevated, ETF flows are negative, and the on-chain indicators reset is incomplete. That combination points to a final leg of weakness that carries price below the $53,000–$54,000 realized-price range, and reset all on-chain indicators.

As the energy-driven inflation impulse fades through the second half of 2026, rate-hike expectations recede, the dollar softens, the debasement bid will returns to Bitcoin and gold.

Disclaimer: The information provided herein does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and should not be treated as such. All content set out below is for informational purposes only.

Two Iranian drones targeted the ADNOC-affiliated crude oil tanker Barakah as it transited the Strait of Hormuz on May 4, marking the latest escalation in a Gulf shipping crisis that now touches both traditional energy markets and crypto. Oil prices jumped roughly 3.4% to around $112 per barrel on the news.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs wasted no time, calling the incident a “terrorist attack” and an act of “piracy” that violated international law. No crew members were injured, and no cargo was lost, but the diplomatic damage was immediate and significant.

What happened in the Strait The attack involved two drones striking the Barakah during its passage through one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints. Roughly 20% of globally traded petroleum passes through the Strait of Hormuz on any given day, which makes every incident there a market-moving event.

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This wasn’t an isolated episode. The strike came amid a broader pattern of escalating hostility in the Gulf, including US-Iran naval standoffs and multiple attacks on commercial shipping vessels. Oil prices had already exceeded $100 per barrel due to persistent disruptions before this latest incident pushed them higher.

The UAE’s response framed the attack as a direct threat to regional stability and freedom of navigation. Saudi Arabia and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council also condemned the attack, reflecting a unified regional stance against Iranian aggression.

Iran’s Bitcoin transit toll Reports indicate that Iran began imposing a Bitcoin-denominated transit fee on tankers passing through contested waters, reportedly around $1 per barrel, starting in April 2026. Bitcoin doesn’t route through correspondent banks in New York and isn’t subject to SWIFT bans, giving a sanctions-hit nation a currency that’s harder to freeze than dollars or euros.

Whether this toll is actually being enforced consistently, or whether it’s more of a symbolic provocation, remains an open question. But the mere fact that a state actor is linking petroleum transit to cryptocurrency payments represents a genuinely novel development in both energy geopolitics and crypto adoption.

What this means for markets Brent crude at $112 per barrel means higher energy costs rippling through every economy on the planet. Oil was trading below $80 as recently as late 2024.

If Iran continues collecting Bitcoin transit fees from tankers, that creates a small but persistent source of BTC demand tied directly to oil volumes. It also creates regulatory headaches for any shipping company that complies, since paying fees to a sanctioned nation in any currency, including crypto, likely violates Western sanctions regimes.

Traders should watch for whether other Gulf states or the US respond with countermeasures that specifically target crypto payment channels, whether Bitcoin’s correlation with oil prices tightens in coming weeks, and whether the attack prompts shipping insurance premiums to spike, which historically compounds the oil price impact of Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden has stated that Bitcoin is experiencing its lowest level of investor confidence so far in the current market cycle. Renowned for her research on Bitcoin, Alden emphasized that the long-term success of the asset should not depend on external support, but rather on its own core characteristics.

Investor sentiment weakens, cautious expectations dominateSpeaking in an interview with Natalie Brunell, Alden remarked that she does not expect any new external catalysts to propel Bitcoin higher at this stage. According to her, Bitcoin’s resilience will depend on its structural features—liquidity, permissionless use, and its function as a store and transfer of value.

Lyn Alden underscored that she sees no external factor on the horizon that can “rescue” Bitcoin, stressing that the asset should rely on its own inherent strengths to endure.

She went on to note that the recent downturn feels noticeably different from when Bitcoin dropped to $16,000 in 2022. At that time, she observed that investor interest remained more robust, whereas today, weakened narratives, a more sharply defined market structure dominated by companies, and widespread investor frustration have come to the forefront.

Given this context, Alden’s main scenario for the year does not foresee Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high. However, she did not completely rule out the possibility of a sharp upward move, given Bitcoin’s volatile nature. In the short term, the absence of new lows and a technical outlook that turns sideways or gradually upward are regarded as positive developments.

Pressure mounts on Strategy’s approachWith institutional adoption and corporate treasury strategies involving Bitcoin becoming significant themes in this cycle, attention has once again turned to companies like Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Earlier this week, Strategy disclosed that it had sold 3,588 BTC, amounting to a total value of $216 million.

Alden highlighted that, during downtrends, investors are scrutinizing the company’s Bitcoin-backed capital structure and preferential share products more carefully. She observes that, for investors seeking indirect exposure to the company’s Bitcoin strategy without holding BTC directly, instruments like STRC offer a specific function.

Glossary: STRC is one of Strategy’s preferred share products. Preferred shares often provide different returns and privileges compared to common stock and can give investors indirect access to certain strategies without having to hold the underlying asset directly.

While warning that higher-yield, BTC-linked products might encourage additional leverage among investors, Alden points out that the long-term performance of these instruments remains fundamentally tied to the price of Bitcoin.

She also commented that the company’s recent measures to enhance collateral structures and introduce further safeguards are reasonable. However, she cautioned that the effectiveness of these protective steps will ultimately depend on Bitcoin’s future price movements.

HeadlineDetailsStrategy’s sale3,588 BTCTotal sale value$216 millionAlden’s main scenarioNo new all-time high expected this yearDebate over Bitcoin protocol changes met with cautionAlden also touched on the discussions regarding Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110, or BIP 110. This proposal aims to limit high-data-volume transactions—including those used for visual storage—reducing undue congestion on the Bitcoin network.

Glossary: BIP stands for Bitcoin Improvement Proposal, the official process for introducing technical changes to the Bitcoin network. Such proposals undergo rigorous technical evaluation by developers, users, and ecosystem participants before implementation; they are not adopted automatically.

Alden explained that she generally approaches rapid changes to Bitcoin’s rules with caution. Some proposals, she notes, could make the network more complex or impact existing security mechanisms. She advocates for careful analysis of both the technical arguments for and against any protocol modification.

She also expressed criticism about how some proposals are publicly presented. Alden believes framing protocol changes as existential threats for Bitcoin may overstate their significance and does not provide the right perspective for public debate.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.