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Key HighlightsCompany Acquires Massive Powered Property in Matagorda CountyMatagorda Acquisition Advances Dual-Purpose Infrastructure StrategyMarket Response Reflects Growing Infrastructure PortfolioGet 3 Free Stock Ebooks Shares of MARA climbed following announcement of strategic Texas property purchase.

Company secured 1,200-acre site with potential for 2 gigawatts of power capacity.

Development will include high-performance computing campus alongside cryptocurrency operations.

Collaboration with Starwood Digital Ventures will drive infrastructure development.

Deal could more than double company’s total power capacity portfolio.

Shares of MARA Holdings (MARA) jumped 12.15% to reach $13.48 following the company’s announcement of a significant land purchase in Texas. The transaction positions the firm to dramatically expand its power infrastructure access and advance its artificial intelligence computing ambitions. This strategic move signals the company’s continued evolution beyond its core cryptocurrency mining business.

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc., MARA

Company Acquires Massive Powered Property in Matagorda County MARA Holdings entered into a binding purchase agreement for a 1,200-acre powered facility located in Matagorda County, Texas. The property sits approximately 90 miles from Houston’s southwest region. HIF USA, the seller, will continue pursuing its alternative fuels initiatives at other locations.

According to the transaction terms, the facility could deliver 1 gigawatt of grid power availability by late 2027. Subsequently, capacity could expand to 2 gigawatts by spring 2028. This arrangement provides MARA with substantial energy resources to meet future computational requirements.

Development of the property will proceed through MARA’s existing collaboration with Starwood Digital Ventures. The facility will accommodate high-performance computing operations, adaptable computational workloads, and digital currency mining activities. Company officials indicated that prospective HPC clients have already expressed significant interest in utilizing the location.

Matagorda Acquisition Advances Dual-Purpose Infrastructure Strategy This purchase represents another step in MARA’s strategic diversification beyond conventional cryptocurrency mining. The organization now targets both blockchain network support and artificial intelligence-driven computing applications. This transition mirrors an industry-wide movement among mining companies exploring alternative revenue opportunities.

MARA anticipates construction will commence in stages starting in 2026, pending necessary governmental clearances. The firm intends to establish an extensive digital infrastructure facility on the acquired land. HIF will maintain a minor equity position following execution of a high-performance computing lease agreement with MARA.

Upon complete activation, the location could increase MARA’s aggregate power capacity by more than 100%. Total portfolio capacity is projected to approach 4.8 gigawatts. This calculation incorporates the anticipated completion of the company’s Long Ridge Energy & Power transaction.

Market Response Reflects Growing Infrastructure Portfolio The company’s stock price climbed as investors responded favorably to its widening AI infrastructure footprint. This acquisition provides MARA with another substantial energy-backed asset positioned to serve emerging computational demands. The deal reinforces the firm’s competitive standing in energy-intensive digital infrastructure sectors.

MARA has committed over $1.2 billion to Texas investments to date. Company representatives stated the Matagorda development could generate thousands of construction positions and permanent employment opportunities. The campus is also expected to contribute meaningfully to regional economic growth in coming years.

This transaction illustrates a broader industry pattern among publicly-traded cryptocurrency mining enterprises. Multiple firms are now leveraging energy infrastructure to support artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and HPC applications. MARA’s Texas purchase deepens its engagement with this transformation while maintaining its Bitcoin mining operations as a core business element.

Oliver Dale

Editor-in-Chief of Blockonomi and founder of Kooc Media, A UK-Based Online Media Company. Believer in Open-Source Software, Blockchain Technology & a Free and Fair Internet for all. His writing has been quoted by Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Investopedia, The New Yorker, Forbes, Techcrunch & More. Contact [email protected]

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

TL;DR

$560 million in daily trading volume hits Robinhood Chain as the CashCat token drives new wallet activity.Bitwise removes Polkadot and Avalanche from its 10 Crypto Index, replacing them with Stellar (XLM) and Hyperliquid.40 BTC moves from a wallet untouched since 2010, worth $2.54 million at current prices.Spot Bitcoin ETFs post a $221 million net inflow on July 9, ending a 10-day outflow streak.CPI and PPI data due July 14 to 15, followed by the Fed's July 28–29 meeting, will test Bitcoin's path toward $100,000.How the CashCat meme coin pushed Robinhood's new blockchain to $560 millionThe new Robinhood Chain blockchain, launched just a week ago, is already going through its first major hype cycle. Speculative excitement around the Cash Cat meme coin (CASHCAT) pushed daily trading volume on local DEXs to a massive $560 million, according to Dune data.

In just one day, users created almost 16,000 new tokens on the network, while the number of active wallets jumped to 200,000 — and for most of them, it was their first-ever transaction on the chain.

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The market fever was partly triggered by Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev himself. On X, he dropped a short but striking comment: "Although we built Robinhood Chain as the best network for serious assets (RWA)… it works great for meme coins too."

Cash Cat (CASHCAT) market capitalization chart, Source: DexscreenerThat was enough for the market capitalization of the network's flagship meme coin, CASHCAT, to break above $140 million at its peak. In one day, it gained more than 1,000%, and by morning its price had settled around $0.083.

This surge instantly turned a couple of early investors into millionaires. According to Lookonchain, one trader bought a batch of CASHCAT 20 days ago for just $838, then during the hype withdrew $917,600 in pure profit, while leaving another hundred thousand dollars in tokens.

But behind the beautiful screenshots lies a harsh reality. The total liquidity pool of CASHCAT is only $2.6 million, which means only a few people could actually pull real millions out of the system. Social media is already full of fake claims, such as allegations that Uniswap creator Hayden is heavily buying the token, or that Robinhood's CFO put the "cash cat" on his avatar — in reality, the description in his profile had always been there.

Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma's official X profile with Cash Cat mention, Source: XIn the end, Robinhood Chain got the perfect start for any new blockchain: wild activity and a lot of money in fees. The only question is whether anyone will stay once this "cat token" stops delivering multiples.

Hyperliquid pushes the old guard out of Bitwise's top-10 indexThe major crypto index fund, the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW), has carried out a tough portfolio cleanup — Polkadot (DOT) and Avalanche (AVAX) were completely removed. Their places were taken by Stellar (XLM) and, much more notably, the young token of decentralized exchange Hyperliquid (HYPE). 

The newcomer received a weight of about 0.95% and now trades in the same lineup as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP.

Institutions are clearly shifting priorities. Instead of promise-based blockchains, they are choosing projects that generate real revenue right now. Hyperliquid posted massive numbers in the first half of 2026: $1.34 trillion in trading volume and $320 million in net revenue. 

The HYPE token itself has gained 165% since January. On top of that, the platform runs the HIP-3 upgrade, under which 99% of fees go toward token buybacks and burns. 

Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF performance, Source: BitwiseFor large players, this looks like a classic and straightforward stock buyback.

The index urgently needed fresh blood. BITW has been sliding for almost a year: in September 2025, it peaked at $78.74, by April it had fallen to $44.92, and now it trades around $41.01. One positive point is that the fund remains highly stable, with its spread on NYSE Arca staying within 0.2%, meaning there are no liquidity problems.

For Bitwise, this is a logical move. In May, it had already launched a separate spot ETF on Hyperliquid, beating Grayscale and VanEck. Now HYPE has officially secured its status as a new "blue chip".

A Bitcoin investor from the Satoshi era wakes up for a seven222-digit profitA few hours ago, an ancient wallet woke up on the blockchain when an unknown miner fully transferred 40 BTC, worth about $2.54 million, after leaving them untouched since August 3, 2010, according to on-chain data. This is the deep "Satoshi era" — the time when Bitcoin's creator was still online and coins were mined on ordinary home CPUs.

The main point of this news is pure mathematics. In 2010, Bitcoin was worth cents, so the starting price of this wallet's position is listed by analysts as roughly $0. After almost 16 years of waiting, the owner's net profit reached +105,742,020%. At the same time, they paid a tiny network fee to move millions of dollars in block 957220 — just 2,210 satoshis, or about 10 sat/vB.

Satoshi-era whale "waking up" with 40 BTC for the first time since August 2010, Source: Arkham The event prompted the crypto community on X to debate once again how many "lost" bitcoins really exist. Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn summarized the awakening briefly: "'Lost coins' are more myth than you think."

On-chain data shows that the wallet had previously received a "dusting attack" marked as Salomon Client Dusted, in which tiny transactions are sent in an attempt to deanonymize an address.

The movement of 40 BTC does not mean they will be dumped into an exchange order book right now. Most often, ancient whales wake up for basic security reasons: to move funds from old legacy addresses to newer and better-protected formats.

Crypto market outlook: ETF reversal and volume hold BTC ahead of the inflation testBuyers successfully defended a strong historical trading zone above local support after 10 days of outflows from spot ETFs. The strength of this technical structure will be determined by the U.S. CPI/PPI reports and the Fed meeting, which will either confirm the market’s readiness for a move toward $100,000 or trigger a liquidation cascade toward $54,000.

Key checkpoints:

The end of ETF capitulation and a reversal into inflows: After 10 days of aggressive capital outflows from spot BTC ETFs totaling $2.73 billion, the funds recorded a net inflow of $221 million on July 9. The reversal in the institutional trend signals that open-market selling pressure is being exhausted.Leverage wipeout and Bitwise forecasts: The current market drawdown has officially been described by Bitwise experts as a classic leverage squeeze. They note the formation of a local bottom and confirm a Bitcoin price target of $100,000 by year-end, supported by the cleanup of the derivatives market.Solana dominates the RWA race: The Solana network set a historic record by attracting $1 billion in net capital into the real-world asset tokenization sector in just 30 days. That is more than three times the result of its closest competitor, BNB Chain, which attracted only $292 million over the same period.The nearest inflation trigger, CPI/PPI, arrives on July 14–15: The publication of the U.S. Consumer Price Index will be the first hard filter for risk assets. If the report shows inflation cooling below consensus expectations, it could trigger a major short squeeze in BTC. Hot data, by contrast, would strengthen sellers.The Fed interest rate decision comes on July 28–29: The final FOMC meeting of the month will close July and define the monetary vector for the second half of the year. Any hints of policy easing, or a pivot, would give Bitcoin a powerful impulse to break out of its current consolidation zone toward new highs. You Might Also Like

Cryptocurrency prices are broadly rebounding on Thursday, following a dominant sell-off largely attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Bitcoin (BTC) has risen and trades near $63,000, while Ethereum (ETH) pares losses around $1,750 as bulls aim for a short-term breakout above $1,800.

Meanwhile, despite Ripple’s (XRP) broader bearish outlook, the remittance token trades near $1.10 resistance, up from its short-term support range between $1.05 and $1.07.

Crypto sentiment dampens amid mounting geopolitical tensionsThe United States (US) and Iran continued to launch attacks at each other for the second consecutive day on Thursday, amid mounting pressure on the fragile ceasefire between the two countries, according to a CNN report.

The US military said it hit 90 targets along the Iranian coast overnight. In retaliation, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reported that they launched attacks on US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

US President Donald Trump has issued a warning that attacks could “get much worse” if Iran continues to strike ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. The CNN report added that an Iranian top negotiator said that the strait “will only open with ‘Iranian arrangements,’ not American threats.”

Sentiment in the broader crypto market remains constrained, as wars rarely favor risk assets. The Fear & Greed Index is embedded in the Extreme Fear territory at 22 on Thursday, up only marginally from 20 the day before. This indicates that risk appetite is on the back foot, with investors preferring to stay on the sidelines until geopolitical tensions stabilize. Therefore, recoveries are unlikely to make notable progress in the short term.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: AlternativePrice analysis: Bitcoin rebounds but struggles to build momentumBitcoin retains a capped tone as it holds well beneath the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Still, the recent reclaim of the downward resistance trendline, whose break area now comes in near $58,689, suggests bears are losing some immediate control.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just below the midline and a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram together hint that downside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.

BTC/USDT daily chartInitial resistance is aligned with the 50-day EMA at around $65,452, followed by the 100-day EMA at approximately $69,089, with the 200-day EMA near $75,193 forming a more strategic barrier that would need to be overcome to revive a broader bullish trend.

On the downside, the first meaningful cushion is seen around the descending resistance line, now acting as support near $58,689. A sustained drop back through this zone would re-open room for a deeper corrective phase toward the psychological $60,000 level, while holding above it keeps scope for further consolidation beneath the overhead EMA cluster.

Altcoins technical outlook: Ethereum and XRP hold key support levelsEthereum sits above $1,700 while still capped beneath a dense layer of moving averages, keeping the near-term bias bearish despite improving momentum. Still, the MACD indicator stays in positive territory with the line above the signal and a constructive histogram, while the RSI hovers just above 50, hinting at steady but not aggressive buying interest.

ETH/USDT daily chartImmediate resistance lies at the 50-day EMA near $1,801, which is the first hurdle bulls must reclaim to extend the recovery. Above that, the 100-day EMA around $1,960 acts as a subsequent barrier, followed by the more significant 200-day EMA close to $2,243 that defines the broader bearish structure. Although there are no nearby technical supports on the daily chart, psychological and prior price lows at $1,700, $1,600 and $1,500 would serve as interim floors. A daily close above the 50-day EMA would be the first signal that selling pressure is starting to ease.

On the other hand, XRP maintains a bearish near-term tone with the spot price well beneath the 50-day, 100-day and the 200-day EMAs. However, the recent rebound from oversold territory is modest, with the RSI hovering in the mid-40s, suggesting only a mild recovery in momentum, while the Parabolic SAR at $1.03 sits below spot and hints at a still-intact but fragile attempt to stabilize after the latest decline.

XRP/USDT daily chartInitial resistance is seen at the descending trendline area near $1.14, followed by the 50-day EMA around $1.17. A daily close above these levels would be needed to ease downside pressure and open the way toward the 100-day EMA at $1.28 and the more distant 200-day EMA near $1.49.

Looking down, the Parabolic SAR at $1.03 marks the first notable layer of support. A break below this level would likely reinstate stronger selling pressure and expose the prior lows on the chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.

Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.

Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.

Strip Bitcoin and Ethereum out of the crypto market and what remains has shed almost a quarter of its value in the first half of 2026, falling to $666 billion while liquidity retreats into a handful of survivors. This is not a crash; crashes end. It is something slower and stranger: a depression in the long tail of crypto, with its own causes, its own refugees, and its own short list of assets that refuse to participate.

Summary

The ex-Bitcoin and ex-Ethereum crypto market lost nearly 23% in the first half of 2026. Liquidity is retreating from the long tail into Bitcoin, stablecoins, and a few assets with stronger revenue mechanisms. The current altcoin downturn looks more like a slow structural depression than a fast liquidation crash. Token supply glut, ETF-driven institutional access, and the rise of perpetual trading have weakened broad altcoin demand. The main survivors are tokens with real fee flows, buybacks, or utility that does not depend purely on retail speculation. The number that best describes crypto in mid-2026 is not Bitcoin’s price. It is this one: the total market capitalization of every cryptocurrency except Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 22.84% in the first half of the year, down to $666.58 billion as of July 2. Bitcoin, for all its drama, a 21-month low of $58,188 in late June, a bounce back above $62,000, trades within a wide band it has occupied before. The long tail is somewhere it has not been in years: bleeding steadily, month after month, with no single catastrophic day to blame and no capitulation candle to mark a bottom.

The individual charts are grim in a way indexes flatten. Ethereum, the second pillar, just closed three consecutive red quarters for the first time in its history, down 28% in the second quarter alone to trade near $1,740, roughly 65% below its August 2025 peak. Solana sits in the high $70s to low $80s. Worldcoin fell 80% over seven months; Pi Network printed all-time lows 96% below its peak; MicroStrategy’s stock, the market’s favorite leveraged proxy, was the worst performer in the entire Nasdaq-100 last year and trades 85% below its 2024 high. The Fear and Greed Index touched 12 this month, readings last seen at the bottom of the previous cycle, and sentiment surveys read like obituaries.

And yet, scattered across the wreckage, a short list of assets is behaving as if none of this is happening: a perp exchange token near all-time highs, a lending token up 40% in a month on a buyback, a supposedly dead layer-1 up 31% in a week. The pattern of who is exempt is as informative as the destruction itself. This piece maps the altcoin depression properly: how the damage is distributed, the three structural forces that caused it and distinguish it from an ordinary bear market, the anatomy of the exceptions, the honest bull and bear cases for what comes next, and the historical precedents that both camps are quoting at each other.

The shape of the damage

Start with what the aggregate number hides. A 23% half-year decline in the ex-BTC-ETH market sounds survivable until it is decomposed, because the aggregate is propped up by its largest and most defensible members, stablecoins, exchange tokens, the top handful of layer-1s, which means the decline in the actual long tail is far deeper. Move down the capitalization table and the drawdowns compound: mid-caps routinely 60-80% below their 2025 highs, the memecoin complex down by more, and the sub-$100 million tier functionally illiquid, with tokens drifting on a few thousand dollars of daily volume. The market has not fallen uniformly; it has hollowed out from the bottom.

The flows data explains the mechanism. Capital is not so much leaving crypto as retreating inward along the risk curve: into Bitcoin, into stablecoins, whose aggregate supply has kept growing through the drawdown, and into a few narrative fortresses. Bitcoin dominance has ground higher all year, the ETF complex institutionalized a version of crypto exposure that simply does not include the long tail, and the marginal retail buyer, the historical engine of altcoin seasons, is conspicuously absent, with new-wallet and app-download metrics at multi-year lows. When markets are healthy, liquidity spreads outward toward risk; when they are frightened, it retreats toward quality and exits through the same narrow doors it entered. The first half of 2026 has been eighteen consecutive weeks of the second pattern.

Two aggravating events bracketed the half. The macro turn, a hot inflation print, Bank of America forecasting three rate hikes into 2026’s back half, and gold and AI equities absorbing the speculative appetite crypto once monopolized, reset the discount rate on every long-duration asset, and nothing has longer duration than a token whose cash flows are hypothetical. And the ETF reversal removed the market’s newest demand engine precisely when it was needed: after absorbing supply for eighteen months, spot Bitcoin funds bled $4.51 billion in June alone, their worst month on record, roughly $7 billion across May and June, converting the structure that had validated the asset class into a source of daily sell pressure and headline gloom that the long tail, which never even had ETFs, absorbed by proxy.

A tour of the casualty list Abstractions need faces, and the depression’s casualty list is best understood as concentric rings around the majors.

The first ring is the large-caps that were supposed to be safe. Ethereum’s three consecutive red quarters, the first such streak in its existence, ending with a 28% second-quarter loss, did more damage to the market’s psyche than any memecoin implosion, because ETH was the institutional asset, the one with ETFs, staking yield, and a corporate buyer base, and it fell 65% from its peak anyway. Solana, the cycle’s performance champion, trades in the high $70s, its ecosystem activity, notably resilient, decoupled from its token price in exactly the way bulls once promised could not happen. XRP holds near $1.10 with the most institutionally credentialed story in the sector and a chart that ignores it.

The second ring is the narrative tokens, and here the numbers turn brutal: Worldcoin down 80% across seven months, Pi Network at all-time lows 96% below peak, the two of them jointly holding the most commercially promising identity thesis in crypto and jointly demonstrating that theses without token mechanisms no longer receive the benefit of the doubt. The AI-agent complex, the restaking complex, the modular complex, each of 2024-25’s manufactured metas has round-tripped, their tokens down 70-90% while, in several cases, their underlying usage grew, the market’s new discipline applied without sentiment.

The third ring is the equity shadow market, where the depression is arguably deepest: MicroStrategy 85% off its high and the treasury-company complex trading at or below the value of its own coins, the crypto IPO class down 42-89% with its pipeline frozen, and the mining sector repricing around AI-datacenter pivots because coin economics alone no longer support the multiples. When the leveraged wrappers, corporate, listed, and structured, all compress toward or below net asset value simultaneously, the market is making a single statement across every instrument: it will pay for crypto’s contents, and it will no longer pay a premium for containers.

And beneath all three rings lies the true dead zone, the thousands of sub-$100 million tokens where the depression is not a price level but a liquidity condition: order books measured in thousands of dollars, market-making contracts lapsing, volumes that round to zero. No index captures this stratum because indexes weight by capitalization, but it is where most tokens actually live, and its condition is the honest answer to what the altcoin market is in mid-2026: not cheap, not expensive, but in the majority of cases simply unpriced, waiting for either a buyer or a delisting.

Why this is a depression and not a crash

Crypto has crashed many times, and this is not what those looked like. Crashes are violent, leveraged, and fast: a cascade, a weekend of liquidations, a V-shaped aftermath. The 2026 altcoin market is experiencing something with different physics, a slow structural repricing driven by three forces that do not resolve with a bounce.

The first is terminal supply glut. The token-creation machinery built in 2024-25, led by Pump.fun’s million-plus launches but including every launchpad, points program, and airdrop meta, produced assets far faster than the market produced holders, and the professionalized unlock calendar keeps delivering supply into weakness: more than $776 million of scheduled unlocks this week alone, with the sector’s largest single cliff landing Saturday. Every project financed in the 2021 and 2024 vintages is now vesting into a market with no marginal buyer, which functions as a standing tax on the entire asset class. Previous altcoin winters ended when new demand met fixed supply; this one must end against supply that grows on a schedule.

The second is the rerouting of institutional access. The ETF era was supposed to legitimize crypto broadly; what it actually did was create a compliance-approved lane for exactly two assets, soon a handful more, and drain the legitimacy premium from everything outside the lane. An allocator who wants crypto exposure in 2026 buys the funds; the reflexive spillover into altcoins that characterized retail-driven cycles has no institutional equivalent, because no pension committee rotates winnings into mid-cap layer-1s. The long tail has been structurally decoupled from the asset class’s own adoption story, and the decoupling is visible in every chart pair: Bitcoin flat on the year at this writing, the ex-majors index down by a quarter.

The third is the migration of the speculative economy itself. The activity that once expressed itself as altcoin buying now expresses itself as perpetual-futures trading, where the same directional appetite generates volume and fees without anyone holding a token overnight, the instrument having become the market’s true center of gravity. Decentralized perp venues’ share of open interest has nearly quadrupled year over year to 13.5%, volumes concentrate in venues rather than assets, and the professionalization is self-reinforcing: why own a token’s drawdown risk when its volatility can be rented by the hour? The long tail’s former buyers did not leave the casino; they moved from owning the chips to trading the table.

The stablecoin paradox and the macro vise Two forces frame the depression from outside, and both are widely misread.The first is the stablecoin paradox: through six months of risk-asset destruction, aggregate stablecoin supply grew, and it now stands as one of the largest pools of capital inside the crypto perimeter. Bulls read this as dry powder, an army of dollars parked on-chain awaiting redeployment, and the reading has a real mechanism behind it, since capital that intended to exit crypto entirely would have redeemed to banks instead of rotating to Tether and Circle. Bears read the same data as infrastructure, not intent: stablecoins grew because they became payment rails, collateral, and settlement instruments for uses that have nothing to do with buying altcoins, the yield-bearing plumbing of a parallel dollar system, and mistaking plumbing for a bid is how every failed bottom call of the past year was constructed. Both readings are partially right, which is the paradox: the money is there, and nothing about its presence obligates it to arrive.

The second frame is the macro vise, and it deserves respect as a cause rather than an excuse. The asset class that grew up entirely inside a low-rate world is now pricing Bank of America’s projection of three hikes into late 2026, December hike odds above a third on CME’s tracker, and a Federal Reserve meeting on July 29 that markets treat as a live risk event. Long-duration speculative assets reprice first and hardest under tightening, and the long tail of crypto is the longest-duration asset class ever invented. Layer onto that the attention competition, AI equities absorbing the thematic capital and the narrative oxygen that altcoins monopolized in prior cycles, and gold absorbing the debasement trade, and the depression acquires its external half: even a structurally healthy altcoin market would be fighting the tape, and this one is not structurally healthy. The Fear and Greed Index at 12 measures the collision of the internal and external stories, and its historical record, extreme readings preceding reversals, is the single most cited statistic in every bull’s arsenal, cited, as bears note, at 20 as well, and at 15, all the way down.

The depression also has a geography worth noting: it is unevenly distributed across chains as well as capitalizations. Solana’s application economy has held activity remarkably well even as SOL fell, Ethereum’s layer-2 complex has kept throughput growing while its tokens bled, and several ecosystems have effectively bifurcated into functioning networks with failing tokens, the clearest evidence yet that usage and token value have decoupled at the base layer too. The decoupling reads bearish today and cuts ambiguous tomorrow: networks that stay busy through a depression retain the raw material, users, developers, fee flows, from which mechanisms can later be built, while quiet chains with quiet tokens have neither.

The exceptions, and what they share Against that backdrop, the survivors form a pattern too consistent to be luck, and the pattern is cash flow with a mechanism attaching it to the token.

Hyperliquid is the archetype: a perp exchange near all-time highs in a bleeding market, because 97% of its enormous fee revenue mechanically buys its token every block, a structural bid this publication dissected in May. Aave rallied roughly 40% in a month after switching on fee-funded buybacks. The pattern extends to venues, launchpads, and protocols whose revenue is real and whose tokenomics route it to holders, and it conspicuously excludes projects with identical revenue and no routing: the market has stopped paying for adoption stories and started paying, narrowly and skeptically, for distributions. Call it crypto’s dividend repricing; in a depression, only the assets that pay you to hold them get held.

The second class of exceptions is idiosyncratic reversal from the dead zone, Cardano’s 31% weekly bounce from multi-year lows being the current specimen, and these are better read as the volatility of abandonment than as recoveries: when a major asset’s holder base has been reduced to conviction and neglect, small demand produces large moves in both directions. The third class is the RWA-and-infrastructure complex, tokenized Treasuries growing straight through the drawdown and the perp venues annexing equities and commodities, which is not altcoin strength at all but the market routing around altcoins entirely, building things institutions want on rails the long tail happens to share, proof-of-human networks being the cautionary counter-example of vast userbases that never found the mechanism.

The exceptions also share a negative property worth stating: none of them is a bet on the altcoin market recovering. Hyperliquid’s buyback runs on trading volume that exists in every market weather; Aave’s fee stream runs on lending demand that persists through drawdowns; the RWA complex runs on institutional needs that have nothing to do with retail speculation. The survivors are, almost by definition, the assets that found a customer other than the crypto cycle itself, which inverts the sector’s old logic completely. In previous cycles, the long tail was leveraged exposure to crypto’s growth, the beta on the beta; in this one, the only long-tail assets working are the ones that de-correlated from that growth entirely. The depression, seen through the survivors, is not punishing altcoins for being risky. It is punishing them for being redundant, for offering exposure to an asset class that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the ETFs now deliver with less risk, and rewarding, narrowly, whatever offers something else. That is a harsher filter than any bear market, because bear markets end, and redundancy does not.

The bear case, the bull case, and the precedents The bear case says this is not a cycle but a verdict. The long tail was an artifact of zero rates, retail mania, and the absence of regulated alternatives; all three conditions are gone, the supply overhang is permanent, and the correct comparison is not crypto 2018 but small-cap altcoins after 2018, thousands of which never recovered because nothing required them to. On this reading, the 23% half is not a drawdown to be recovered but a repricing toward a world where perhaps a few dozen tokens have durable claims on value and the rest converge, slowly, on their terminal worth. The absence of capitulation is itself the tell: markets that cannot crash cannot bottom.

The bull case answers with the same history read differently. Every previous altcoin winter, 2015, 2018-19, 2022, featured identical obituaries, identical dominance grind, identical proclamations that this time the long tail was structurally dead, and each resolved when a demand catalyst met a market positioned exactly like this one: Fear and Greed at cycle-bottom readings, funding negative, sentiment surveys unanimous, and the sellable supply, per the flows data, increasingly transferred from weak hands to strong. The catalysts are even legible in advance: the CLARITY Act’s resolution would extend regulated access beyond the ETF duopoly, three specific fights currently deciding it; a Fed pivot would reprice duration assets in unison; and the halving-cycle clock that bulls treat as scripture points to exactly this phase, maximum despair, preceding rotation. The 23% number, on this reading, is what the bottom of an accumulation phase looks like from inside it.

The honest synthesis is narrower than either slogan. Both camps are describing real mechanisms; the question is which applies to which stratum. The structural forces, supply glut, institutional rerouting, speculation’s migration to perps, are genuine and will not reverse with sentiment, which argues the bear case is right about the median token. The positioning extremes, the survivor pattern, and the catalyst calendar are equally genuine, which argues the bull case is right about the market’s investable core. A depression, unlike a crash, does not end for everyone at once: it ends first for the assets with cash flow and mechanisms, later for the assets with users and stories, and never for the rest. The 23% figure will eventually be revised by a recovery; how much of the long tail participates in that revision is the actual bet, and the first half of 2026 has been the market showing, asset by asset, exactly how it intends to grade it.

A word, finally, on how to actually navigate a depression, because the historical playbook differs from the crash playbook most participants trained on. Crashes reward buying panic and selling relief; depressions reward selection and patience, and punish both panic-buying and generalized bottom-fishing, since the defining feature of the regime is that most of what looks cheap is cheap for a reason and will get cheaper or simply stay dead. The discipline the survivors’ pattern suggests is uncomfortable but legible: hold the market’s investable core to whatever extent one holds the asset class at all; demand a mechanism, revenue routed to holders, structural buybacks, genuine fee claims, before treating any long-tail position as investment rather than trade; treat narrative without mechanism as rental property, entered and exited with the attention cycle; and respect the unlock calendar as a standing map of scheduled supply, because in a market without a marginal buyer, the vesting schedule is the price forecast. None of this is exciting, which is rather the point: depressions transfer wealth from participants who need excitement to participants who can do without it.

The last observation belongs to the long view. Crypto has now run this experiment enough times for the shape to be familiar: a technology wave mints an asset class, the asset class overproduces claims on the future, the claims deflate for years while the technology quietly compounds, and the next wave is built by whoever kept working through the deflation. The 2026 altcoin depression is that middle phase executing on schedule, and its most reliable historical property is also its least appreciated: the assets that lead the next cycle are rarely the ones that led the last, and are frequently being built, unlisted and unpriced, during exactly this kind of silence. The $666 billion question is not when the long tail recovers; it is which fraction of the current long tail has anything to do with what recovers, and the honest answer, on every precedent available, is: less than its holders hope, and more than its obituaries allow.

For the record, the numbers to watch from here are few and public: the ex-majors market capitalization itself, whose trend break above the H1 downchannel would be the first structural all-clear; Bitcoin dominance, whose rollover has preceded every genuine altcoin rotation on record; the weekly unlock calendar against long-tail volumes, the supply-demand scissors in one glance; and the count of tokens with live buyback or fee-distribution mechanisms, the survivor class’s census, which grows every month and quietly defines what the next cycle’s investable universe will look like. Depressions end without announcements. They end in data series, and these four will carry the announcement when it comes.

However it resolves, the first half of 2026 has already earned its place in the asset class’s institutional memory, the six months in which the market stopped grading crypto on its future and started grading it, token by token, on its books.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset markets are volatile and you can lose your entire investment. Figures are current as of July 9, 2026, and may change. Always do your own research.

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered the same 91-day window that ended each of its last three bear markets. History suggests this stretch is the most punishing of any cycle, yet the damage keeps shrinking with each repeat.

Two independent methods now converge on a similar floor. A linear regression on past drawdowns and a logarithmic Fibonacci retracement both point toward a bottom near $47,000 by early October.

Bitcoin Enters the 91-Day Window That Ends Bear MarketsBitcoin trades near $62,865 today. It has fallen close to 50% from its record high of around $126,000 set in October 2025. That decline already matches the scale of past Bitcoin bear markets.

The current drop invites an obvious question. How much further could the price fall before it finds a floor? Past cycles offer a useful guide.

This analysis measures the final 91 days of each past bear market. Each window runs from a local high to the low printed 91 days later.

The 91-day span equals roughly one financial quarter. That makes it a consistent yardstick across every cycle. It also captures the phase when panic selling tends to peak.

The method isolates the closing leg of every bear market. That leg has historically delivered the steepest and fastest losses of the entire cycle. Comparing the three windows side by side reveals a clear trend.

The timing also aligns with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Each bear ending has followed a halving-driven peak by more than a year. Some analysts now question whether that cycle still holds.

The Last 3 Bitcoin Bear Markets Ended the Same WayThe first case ran from October 2014 to January 2015. Bitcoin fell 63.54% across those 91 days. The price bottomed at $152 before a slow recovery began.

Liquidity was thin during that period. The market still carried scars from the Mt. Gox exchange collapse. No institutional bid existed to cushion the decline.

The recovery from that low proved slow but powerful. Bitcoin needed most of 2015 to stabilize before its next major advance began.

BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingviewThe second case covered September to December 2018. Bitcoin dropped 56.69% over the same 91-day span. The low arrived near $3,210 during the November capitulation.

That decline was severe, yet it proved milder than in 2014. The shift marked the first clear sign of a shrinking pattern. A deeper market had started to absorb the selling.

The 2018 bottom held for years as a key floor. It later became a launchpad for the powerful 2020 and 2021 rally.

BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingviewThe third case ran from August to November 2022. Bitcoin lost 37.60% across the window. The bottom formed at $15,632 as the FTX collapse drained market confidence.

The drawdown eased again compared with the prior cycle. The sequence now reads clearly, 63.54%, then 56.69%, then 37.60%. Each ending hurt less than the one before it.

That 2022 low has held ever since. It formed the base for the long climb to fresh records above $120,000 in 2025.

BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingviewWhy Each Bitcoin Bottom Hurts Less Than the LastThe shrinking drawdowns are not random. Each cycle brings deeper liquidity and a more mature market structure. That structure blunts the force of every sell-off.

The trend reflects a broader decline in Bitcoin volatility. Larger size and steadier holders dampen the wild swings of the early years. Milder bear endings are one visible result of that maturity.

BTC Volatility Index. Source: CoinglassSpot Bitcoin ETFs now anchor a large share of demand. Institutional desks, larger derivatives markets, and a bigger market cap all absorb pressure. Pushing the price lower takes far more capital than it once did.

On-chain data supports that read. Large whales kept accumulating through the June sell-off. Their buying tends to slow declines that once ran unchecked.

Exchange-traded funds have cut both ways this year. They drained billions of dollars during June before turning positive in early July. That two-way flow shows how institutional access now shapes each move.

Regression Points to a $47,000 Bitcoin BottomA linear regression captures this softening trend. Fitting the three past drawdowns produces the line y = 65.58 minus 12.97x. The slope points steadily toward smaller losses.

The model projects the next final-quarter decline at roughly 26.6%. That figure extends the pattern seen since 2014. It implies the current bear ending should be the mildest yet.

The math itself stays simple. The regression draws the best straight line through the three past drops. Its downward slope of about 13 points per cycle captures the easing trend.

Three data points form a small sample. The regression, therefore, offers a directional guide rather than a precise guarantee. It frames a likely magnitude, not a certain outcome.

Applying the projected drop to the current cycle is straightforward. The recent weekly candle high sits at $64,657. Bitcoin recently rebounded toward that level after a sharp June decline.

A drop of 26.64% from that high implies a bottom near $47,431. The 91-day window runs from July to early October 2026. Bitcoin currently trades around $62,865, so the model still allows meaningful downside.

Several on-chain research firms share a similar timeline. Many independently point to the fourth quarter of 2026 as a likely bottom window. That timing aligns closely with this model.

BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingviewThe full model across four cycles now lines up as follows.

CycleWindow (91d)StartDropBottom1Oct 2014 – Jan 2015$418-63.54%$1522Sep – Dec 2018$7,412-56.69%$3,2103Aug – Nov 2022$25,053-37.60%$15,6324 (projected)Jul – Oct 2026$64,657-26.64%$47,431Start prices for the first three cycles are derived from each window’s high. The 2026 start uses the exact recent high of $64,657.

Log Fibonacci Points to the Same Bitcoin BottomA second method supports the same conclusion. It uses a logarithmic Fibonacci retracement across each cycle. The log scale suits Bitcoin because its moves compound over time.

A linear scale would distort these comparisons. It would exaggerate recent dollar swings and shrink older ones. The log view keeps every cycle proportional and fair.

The prior cycle offers a useful template. That retracement runs from the $69,000 peak down to the $3,122 bear low. It measures how far the 2022 bear retraced the previous advance.

On that scale, the 2022 bottom is revealing. The 0.5 retracement level sat at $14,678. Bitcoin bottomed at $15,632, just above that midpoint.

The market retraced roughly half of its prior advance before turning. The prior cycle levels ran 0.236 at $33,233, 0.382 at $21,149, 0.5 at $14,678, and 0.618 at $10,186. A peer-reviewed study has also linked these long-term moves to network growth.

BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingviewThe current cycle produces a striking parallel. This retracement runs from the $126,272 all-time high down to the $15,632 prior bottom. It maps the current bear against the last full advance.

Here, the 0.5 level sits at $44,428. The regression target of $47,431 lands just above it. That relationship mirrors 2022 almost candle-for-candle.

In both cases, the projected bottom sits slightly above the logarithmic midpoint. Current levels read 0.236 at $77,123, 0.382 at $56,849, 0.5 at $44,428, 0.618 at $34,722, and 0.786 at $24,444. Two separate methods, therefore, point to the same zone.

The 0.5 level often acts as a fair value on a log chart. A bottom near it suggests a healthy reset rather than a full collapse. Both the last cycle and this projection fit that description.

The 0.382 level at $56,849 also matters right now. It sits just below the current price and may act as support. A clean break beneath it would open the path toward the deeper zone.

Each of these historical bottoms preceded a strong recovery. The 2015, 2019, and 2023 rebounds all began near these retracement levels. That history frames why the projected zone matters to longer-term investors.

BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingviewBitcoin Bear Market: The $44,000 to $47,000 Bottom Zone to WatchThe two methods now frame one region. The regression suggests $47,431, while the log-Fibonacci midpoint is $44,428. Together, they outline a bottom range of roughly $44,000 to $47,000.

The timing centers on early October 2026. Both signals point to the same area, which strengthens the case. It suggests the current cycle may rhyme closely with 2022.

The pattern holds across three completed cycles. Each bear market ends with a brutal quarter, yet each proves milder than the last. That trend forms the core of this thesis.

Several factors could still cause the model to break. The sample size is small, and macro shocks remain possible. A hawkish Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh could deepen the decline.

Heavy ETF outflows could add further pressure. Strong inflows could instead lift the bottom above the projected zone. The price could already have bottomed.

This framework is an analysis, not financial advice.

Traders may watch the $44,000 to $47,000 zone into October. A weekly close well below $44,000 would challenge the model. A hold above that region would preserve the historical rhythm.

Latin America’s biggest stock exchange just made its boldest crypto move yet. B3, the São Paulo-based exchange that dominates trading across the region, launched options on Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana futures on July 6, completing a derivatives trifecta that took roughly two years to build.

The new contracts trade under the tickers BIT, ETR, and SOL. At expiration, they automatically exercise into the underlying futures positions, meaning traders never have to fumble with spot token custody. Settlement happens either in cash or through the futures contract itself.

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What B3 actually built The options trade independently from 9:00 a.m. to 6:30 p.m. São Paulo time. B3 has enlisted designated market makers to keep bid-ask spreads tight and ensure adequate liquidity.

This launch didn’t happen overnight. B3 introduced Bitcoin futures back in April 2024 with a contract size of 0.1 BTC. Ether and Solana futures followed on June 16, 2025. The options layer is the natural next step, giving traders the ability to construct limited-risk strategies around positions they already understand.

Rafael Tsopanoglou Teodoro, B3’s Product Manager for Currencies, framed the expansion as a way to connect Brazilian investors with global market trends while maintaining robust risk management. The entire operation runs under the oversight of Brazil’s securities regulator, CVM.

What this means for investors For retail traders in Brazil, the immediate impact is access. Options allow for strategies like protective puts and covered calls that were previously only available through unregulated venues. The automatic exercise into futures removes a layer of complexity that often trips up less experienced traders.

For institutional investors, B3’s regulated framework is the main draw. Asset managers, hedge funds, and family offices that are mandated to trade on regulated venues now have a compliant way to gain crypto options exposure across three major assets. The CVM oversight means these products come with standardized clearing, counterparty risk mitigation, and the kind of audit trail that compliance departments demand.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Wall Street giant Wells Fargo revealed massive crypto holdings via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and stocks. The banks revealed exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), Solana, Strategy (MSTR), Bitmine (BMNR) and other crypto stocks.

Wells Fargo Reveals Bitcoin, ETH, Solana ETFs Exposure In its latest SEC filing, $2.5 trillion AUM Wells Fargo disclosed 6.5 million shares in BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT). It also revealed a new call position and an increase in put position in IBIT amid growing uncertainty during the US-Iran war.

IBIT holdings dropped by 75,102 shares compared to the Q4 quarter. Moreover, the Wall Street giant cut its exposure to the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO), Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, and the Fidelity Bitcoin ETF (FBTC).

While Wells Fargo decreased holdings in IBIT, Bitcoin exposure increased in Grayscale Bitcoin Mini ETF, Bitwise’s BITB, and GBTC. Notably, BITB holdings climbed 24% quarter-on-quarter.

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo boosts Ethereum ETF holdings with a 65% rise in BlackRock Ethereum ETF (ETHA) shares. The bank now holds more than 1.10 million ETHA shares worth $17.56 million.

In addition, the banking firm holds 257,157 Bitwise Ethereum ETF, 4,637 Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF, and 623 VanEck’s ETHV shares.

Also, Wells Fargo disclosed new exposure to Solana ETFs. It scooped 13,280 in Grayscale’s GSOL and 1,638 in Fidelity Solana Fund (FSOL).

Holding in Strategy’s MSTR, Bitmine, and other Crypto Stocks On the crypto stocks side, Wells Fargo significantly ramped up its position in Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR). The bank boosted its MSTR shares by 125% to almost 726,000 shares, adding an estimated $41.5 million in exposure. Notably, Strategy plans sell Bitcoin, but Grayscale claims Strategy’s Bitcoin sales are good for markets.

It also revealed new holdings in the Trump family’s American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC) and Strive (ASST). This move highlights a preference for established Bitcoin treasury companies over direct mining or trading firms.

The bank significantly increased its holdings in Bitmine Immersion’s BMNR from 2,323 to 21,547 stocks. This makes an 828% rise in Ethereum treasury exposure to $426K.

Robinhood (HOOD) shareholdings jumped from 65% to 2.56 million shares. Wells Fargo also opened put option positions for almost $116K. As CoinGape reported earlier, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev sold HOOD shares earlier this week.

In contrast, the bank sharply reduced its stake in Galaxy Digital by about 97% and 25% in Coinbase (COIN). This signals a strategic shift away from certain crypto stocks.

Also Read: 11 Best Crypto Copy Trading Platforms in July 2026

Crude Oil Jumped to $74, and a Tiny Crypto Token Saw It Coming

U.S. regulators propose to block CME Group’s application to launch 24-hour oil contracts.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) plans to block Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)’s application to quickly launch 24/7 oil contracts, amid concerns that energy markets are not ready for an influx of large volumes of all-day derivatives contracts. CME said in June it planned to offer 24/7 trading for a futures contract tied to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, denominated in 10-barrel lots, citing investor demand to manage positions “whenever news breaks.” On Wednesday, CME filed a self-certification application for the new product, which means the CFTC has only one day to intervene before the contract can be listed for trading. According to people familiar with the matter, the CFTC plans to block CME’s self-certification. CFTC Chair Michael Selesinger has met with executives from energy firms including Shell, Vitol, BP and ExxonMobil in recent weeks. Another application CME submitted for the same product, which requires a 45-day review period, is still under regulatory consideration.

1 seconds ago

Mantle Super Portal has migrated to Chainlink CCIP, bringing institutional-grade security for MNT cross-chain transfers.

According to official announcements, Mantle today announced that its native cross-chain infrastructure Mantle Super Portal—developed in partnership with Bybit—has migrated from LayerZero to Chainlink CCIP. Powered by CCIP, Mantle Super Portal will feature enhanced cross-chain security, decentralized node infrastructure security guarantees, advanced risk management, and institutional-grade security standards, delivering a higher level of protection for cross-chain transfers of MNT tokens valued at over $2.5 billion. Additionally, as an increasing number of regulated assets, such as tokenized equities, move on-chain, the underlying infrastructure supporting them must meet traditional financial standards. This migration will further solidify Mantle’s position as a "distribution layer connecting traditional finance and on-chain liquidity" and underscores Mantle and Bybit’s ongoing commitment to growing MNT through further integrations, opportunities, and use cases. According to the announcement, Mantle Super Portal will be temporarily offline during the migration period, scheduled from July 9 to 15, 2026 (with a possible slight extension of the timeline). Users do not need to take any action, and transfers will automatically resume once the migration is complete.

1 seconds ago

Ahead of the US stock market opening, a crypto whale plans to go long on Nasdaq 100 index positions worth approximately $22 million.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa)’s monitoring, address 0x3e7…f1589 deposited 5 million USDC at 7:30 PM tonight, then opened a 20x long position in XYZ100 (which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index) worth $16.63 million at an entry price of 29,458. Currently, over $5.3 million worth of TWAP orders are still being filled gradually, with the final position valued at around $22 million.

1 seconds ago

SK Hynix sets the price guidance for its U.S. ADR issuance at a 3.1% premium to its South Korean closing price.

Market News: SK Hynix has set the issue reference price for its American Depositary Receipts (ADR) at $149 per unit, a 3.1% premium over its closing price in South Korea.

1 seconds ago

PayPal USD officially launches on the Polygon network.

Paxos has announced that PayPal USD (PYUSD) is now officially native-issued on the Polygon blockchain, and is being offered to the market via Polygon’s Open Money Stack. The move aims to provide institutions and enterprises with a federally regulated on-chain USD settlement solution, covering deposit, withdrawal and compliance functions. The Polygon blockchain currently records an average daily stablecoin settlement volume of over $2.5 billion, with a total cumulative settlement volume exceeding $2.6 trillion. PYUSD is issued by Paxos, a national trust chartered institution regulated by the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).

1 seconds ago

Glassnode: In the late stage of Bitcoin's bottoming process, the scale of realized losses has reached its highest point since December 2022.

Glassnode says Bitcoin is in the late stages of bottom formation, but capitulation selling by long-term holders remains elevated, with the recent peak in realized losses approaching $280 million daily — the highest level since December 2022. Glassnode notes that this metric needs to shrink significantly for the market to credibly shift back into a bullish state. Last week, Bitcoin rebounded from $58,300 to $64,400 before pulling back to $62,700, and still trades below the short-term holders' cost base of roughly $72,200 and the True Market Mean of around $76,600. Net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have narrowed but remain negative.

1 seconds ago

Bitcoin developers have rolled out Bitcoin Core version 31.1, a maintenance release that contains bug fixes and performance enhancements.

The new software notably addresses a significant privacy vulnerability that risked exposing node operators' network data.

Plugging the privacy leakA security vulnerability within the platform's privacy configurations is the most notable patch that has been delivered with the new release. Specifically, the update delivers a fix for an IP address leakage issue.

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The software "fixes an IP address leak when using the -privatebroadcast feature." 

The privacy mechanism was failing to route data securely under certain conditions. 

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However, the update now ensures that node operators can remain anonymous without inadvertently revealing their clearnet IP addresses. 

Fixing disk overload and wallet tweaksOn top of the security patch, Bitcoin Core v31.1 also resolves a flaw within its database engine that was causing hardware strain. The release contains fixes for the "-privatebroadcast IP address leak as well as leveldb causing excessive disk operations."

This version specifically "fixes an issue where the chainstate database would repeatedly rewrite large portions of itself, causing excessive disk reads and writes during normal operation."

The wallet infrastructure also received important maintenance. Under the designated wallet changes, the development team integrated pull request o "check the final BDB page LSN during migration" alongside a fix to "use outpoint when estimating input size." 

Node operators have to promptly update their systems to benefit from the security and database improvements. Users have to shut down their active node entirely before installing the new binaries. 

Iran’s army launched drone attacks on US military targets in the Persian Gulf region. Bitcoin dropped to roughly $99.5K in the immediate aftermath of the strikes before rebounding above $102K shortly after.

What happened and why it matters The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait on June 28, 2026. The strikes were a direct response to US airstrikes conducted near the Strait of Hormuz and other locations in the region.

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The current conflict traces back to massive US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, which resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Since then, Iran has waged a sustained retaliatory campaign targeting US facilities across the Gulf states.

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.

Bitcoin’s geopolitical stress test In May 2026, when US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz escalated tensions to a new level, Bitcoin fell below $73K. That move triggered roughly $1 billion in liquidations across crypto markets.

What investors should be watching For traders and investors navigating this environment, position sizing matters. The $1 billion in liquidations during the May drawdown wasn’t caused by the geopolitical event itself — it was caused by people who were overleveraged when the event happened.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical geographic chokepoint. Oil prices, shipping routes, and global supply chains all funnel through that narrow passage.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Polymarket launches contract trading feature, supporting select crypto and stock assets.

According to its official page, Polymarket has launched a derivatives trading feature, currently supporting 10 assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, gold, silver, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, WTIOIL, and SPCX, with a maximum leverage of 20x.

10 minutes ago

SMIC surpassed Kweichow Moutai in market capitalization.

According to Bitget data, SMIC’s A-share price rose nearly 15%, pushing its total market capitalization to 1.49 trillion yuan. Kweichow Moutai is currently down 1.43%, with a total market cap of 1.48 trillion yuan. (Jinshi)

10 minutes ago

Bitcoin breaks through $63,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has broken through the $63,000 mark, with a 0.74% rise in the past 24 hours.

10 minutes ago

US tech stocks are experiencing one of the most volatile periods in history, with the volatility ratio of the Nasdaq 100 to the S&P 500 hitting a 23-year high.

The Kobeissi Letter noted in a post that tech stocks are experiencing one of the most volatile periods in history. The ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN) to the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) has risen to 1.7, its highest level in 23 years. This marks the first time the ratio has topped 1.5 since 2018. By comparison, the metric peaked at around 1.6 during the 2008 financial crisis. Currently, VXN stands at 28 points, while VIX is at 16 points – the latter is 43% lower than the former. VXN has remained above the 20-point threshold for five consecutive months, the longest such stretch since the 2022 bear market. Markets are pricing in significant volatility risk for tech stocks.

10 minutes ago

Nvidia will collaborate with Hugging Face to develop open-source robotics models.

NVIDIA has announced a partnership with Hugging Face to co-develop open-source foundation models for robotics, combining its GPU ecosystem and CUDA technology, along with Hugging Face’s extensive model library and developer community, to significantly lower the barriers to AI training and deployment for robotics. (Jinshi)

10 minutes ago

A newly created wallet withdrew 500 BTC from Binance, worth $31.15 million.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a newly created wallet withdrew 500 BTC from Binance, valued at $31.15 million.

10 minutes ago

The US military is systematically dismantling Iran’s energy supply chain, with strikes hitting Kharg Island, the country’s most critical oil export hub, and the Gorgan railway line in northern Iran.

Kharg Island handles approximately 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports.

The military campaign so far The conflict, which officially began in late February 2026, has escalated in distinct phases under the Trump administration. In March and April, US forces conducted precision strikes against over 90 military targets on Kharg Island, focusing on missile storage facilities, naval mine depots, and air defense systems.

The initial wave of strikes deliberately avoided oil export infrastructure. That restraint didn’t last forever. After Iran breached a ceasefire and attacked commercial vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz, US operations resumed in July 2026 with a broader mandate. This time, forces struck more than 80 additional targets, expanding beyond Kharg Island to include transportation networks like the Gorgan railway line.

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US officials have indicated that while oil infrastructure on Kharg Island hasn’t been directly destroyed yet, future strikes remain on the table if Iran continues to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil markets and the price surge Brent crude has been trading near $110 per barrel. Energy stocks have reacted favorably, riding the wave of supply-side anxiety.

Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s threats of retaliatory measures against regional energy infrastructure have kept the market on edge.

Bitcoin’s geopolitical volatility play During this conflict, Bitcoin has demonstrated both sides of its safe haven and risk-asset personality. BTC rebounded above $70K during periods when positive diplomatic talks surfaced. When escalations resumed or oil prices surged, Bitcoin dipped, tracking risk sentiment rather than playing the safe haven card.

Reports suggest Iran has been leveraging Bitcoin mining and stablecoins as tools to navigate international sanctions. The country has been dabbling in crypto mining for years, using its subsidized energy to power mining operations.

What this means for investors Iran’s increasing use of crypto to circumvent sanctions is worth watching closely. If Tehran scales up its Bitcoin mining operations or increases stablecoin usage for trade settlement, it could draw more regulatory scrutiny from Washington. The US Treasury has historically responded to sanctions evasion with secondary sanctions and enforcement actions, which could have broader implications for crypto exchanges and DeFi protocols that inadvertently process these flows.

Iran has warned of retaliatory strikes against regional energy infrastructure, which could push oil prices even higher and trigger another round of risk-off sentiment across both traditional and digital asset markets.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

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Bank of Japan. (Credit: By Wiiii-Wikimedia Commons/Modified by CoinDesk)Summary

A former Bank of Japan official warns the central bank may raise its benchmark interest rate rapidly this year, potentially to above 2%, as the yen continues to weaken.Faster BOJ tightening could support the yen, potentially weighing over risk assets. BTC and yen have developed a strong positive correlation. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise its benchmark interest rate rapidly this year, as the yen slides, eventually pushing it above 2%.

That's the latest warning from a former Bank of Japan official Tsutomu Watanabe, an economics professor at the University of Tokyo who left the central bank in 1999, according to Bloomberg.

As of now, the official rate is at 1%, the result of recent hikes, and the 10-year benchmark government bond yield hovers above 2.8%, the highest in at least three decades, according to data source TradingView.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continues to slide despite recent hikes and hardening Japanese government bond yields. It has depreciated by 60% to 162.36 per U.S. dollar since early 2021, a major decline for one of the most traded currencies in the world. Also, it has dropped 3% so far this year.

Faster potential interest rate hikes by the BOJ may put a floor under the yen, or potentially lift it higher. The question then is whether it will help bitcoin BTC$62,890.39 or work against it.

One theory floating around in markets since long is that a sustained rally in yen could trigger an unwinding of bullish bets across advanced nation government bonds, tech stocks and even crypto that have been supposedly funded by years of cheap borrowing in yen. In such a case, risk assets, including crypto may fall.

But undercutting that theory in recent times is the strong positive correlation between the yen and BTC. Both have been falling against the dollar in lockstep.

Further, rapid rate hikes might worsen Japan's already fragile fiscal position, an argument made by several economists.

All in all, it's a complex situation.

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U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost a net $85 million on Wednesday, ending a three-day inflow run that had pulled in roughly $509 million, per SoSoValue data. Ether ETFs took in about $70 million the same day, a fifth straight session of inflows.

The bitcoin outflow was broad. BlackRock's IBIT shed roughly $59 million, Grayscale's GBTC lost nearly $64 million, and Fidelity's FBTC gave up about $15 million.

Grayscale's mini BTC fund was the only one in the green at nearly $53 million. Total bitcoin ETF assets fell to about $75 billion.

Ether's flows came from a narrower base but kept pointing the same way. Fidelity's FETH led with roughly $69 million, with VanEck's ETHV adding just over $1 million and every other fund flat. Ether ETF assets sit at about $9 billion.

The split matches the price tape. Bitcoin traded near $62,300 and ether near $1,740, both down about 3% on the day, though ether has outperformed over the past two weeks as the Lean Ethereum roadmap and returning ETF demand gave it a story bitcoin has lacked.

The cryptocurrency market was showing some signs of a recovery earlier this week, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly reclaiming the $64,000 price level on July 7. 2026. The upswing, unfortunately, was short-lived. BTC has since fallen to the $62,000 level, and is seeing more of a sideways price movement. Let’s discuss what’s going on with the cryptocurrency market dip and if additional headwinds will present bleaker conditions.

New Doubts Loom Over Cryptocurrency MarketSource: Watcher.GuruThe latest cryptocurrency market dip comes amid a re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. A peace deal between the two countries was almost complete, but, unfortunately, did not go through. The US has restarted its military operations against Iran and the latter has struck US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Many anticipate another energy crisis, which will likely add pressure on the already weak economy. Inflation climbed to 4.2% in May 2026, and could go higher if oil prices go up. The development could lead to an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Higher rates often lead to less risky investments. The cryptocurrency sector could take a big hit under such circumstances.

Another factor of concern for the cryptocurrency market is the Indian central bank, the Reserve Bank Of India (RBI), reasserting a call for prohibition in the country. The country is worried about tax evasion and the tax department has warned that trading via offshore exchanges is hard ‌to track. India has one of the largest number of people invested in cryptocurrencies. According to reports, the country has about 39 million cryptocurrency investors holding nearly $2 billion worth of assets.

Also Read: How Long Will Bitcoin Be Down? Bitcoin’s 50% Crash Has a Timeline

The cryptocurrency market has struggled for months and a recovery doesn’t seem to be around the corner just yet. Many experts, including prominent Chinese miner, Jiang Zhuoer, anticipates Bitcoin (BTC) to bottom out at around $42,000-$44,000 by the end of this year before making any positive price movements.

9h10 ▪ 6 min read ▪ by Luc Jose A.

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After weeks of massive outflows, institutional investors seem to be changing course. Crypto investment products listed on Wall Street (Bitcoin ETFs) are recording a significant slowdown in selling pressure, a signal the market was waiting for to hope to stop its correction. This reversal, still fragile, offers a glimpse into the mindset of major investors facing economic uncertainties and could mark the start of a new sequence for cryptos.

In brief Bitcoin ETFs end eight weeks of capital outflows, with $510 million in inflows rekindling hope of a market turnaround. Institutional investors remain under pressure, as the average acquisition cost of ETFs remains well above Bitcoin’s current price. Whale sales are slowing, but Fed monetary policy and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on market outlooks. The return of capital marks an encouraging signal, though several obstacles could still hinder a lasting Bitcoin recovery. The return of capital to Wall Street after a historic disengagement Bitcoin-backed ETFs have just interrupted an unprecedented downward spiral thanks to a marked reversal in investor activity. The latest market reports reveal particularly precise numerical indicators for the recent period :

Capital injections : investment products attracted about $510 million in net inflows over three consecutive days ; The end of withdrawals : this movement ends a continuous sequence of eight weeks of outflows during which ETFs lost a total of $8 billion ; The interim annual balance : following this prolonged purge, the net outflow balance since the beginning of the year now stands at $2.8 billion. Asked about this change in trajectory, James Butterfill, research director at asset manager CoinShares, confided: “it seems that sentiment is turning”. The researcher also provided a major quantitative detail on the end of this bearish cycle by stating: “these are the largest inflows we’ve seen since the start of outflows at the beginning of May, suggesting we may have passed the worst”.

Regarding the structure of this disengagement, the analysis shows that the capital retraction proportionally represented 8% of the total assets under management of Bitcoin ETFs. This behavior faithfully mirrors capital capitulations observed at cycle lows in 2018. Although spectacular in duration, this unwinding of positions remains technically comparable to the episode in February last year, during which institutional investors withdrew a total of $5.2 billion from these same financial vehicles.

Institutional unrealized losses and the technical review of the purge Beyond recent cash flows, the financial reality of current ETF allocators reveals a critical situation. According to Glassnode calculations based on the average acquisition cost of these financial instruments, the average buyer of these products is currently in an unrealized loss position.

On-chain data indicate that investors mostly gained exposure when Bitcoin was trading around $83,800. This setup explains the current market’s great caution, while the asset is currently trading around $62,000, showing a 4% increase over a week but still affected by its correction to $58,000 at the beginning of the month and its continuous decline from the $126,000 peak set last October.

However, the intensity of this institutional capitulation deserves to be tempered compared to major crises experienced by the ecosystem in the past. Despite the severity and duration of the recent price drop, the peak net daily outflows for these funds stabilized at $733 million. This important psychological threshold did not exceed the absolute disengagement records recorded multiple times throughout last year.

This shows that while outflows set a duration record, daily panic remained relatively contained. Institutional investors thus managed their positions in a more algorithmic and orderly way than in previous cycles.

Whale movements and macroeconomic drags from the Fed The hopes for a structural recovery face underlying market forces and a particularly tight global monetary environment. Alongside ETFs, selling pressure has intensified from whales holding at least 1,000 Bitcoins. These large wallets have liquidated over $40 billion in assets since last year’s price peak.

James Butterfill notes that this major source of devaluation and specific selling pressure has just eased, offering technical relief to the market. However, the U.S. Federal Reserve continues its restrictive policy to fight inflation, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep weighing on risky assets.

James Butterfill highlights the limits of short-term excessive optimism: “we are not in a situation where we can say the Fed is about to cut rates, and that would be very favorable for bitcoin”. The expert reminds the crypto’s intrinsic dependence on central bankers’ decisions concluding : “bitcoin remains very, very sensitive to inflation outlooks, and by extension, the war in Iran and Fed prospects”.

The cross-analysis of this data demands a nuanced reading of market prospects. On one side, the return of inflows at $510 million, despite eight weeks of capital outflows, shows that institutional investors perceive the current zone as a relevant entry point. On the other, the fact that the average cost base is at $83,800 creates psychological resistance, with many players simply waiting to break even in an uncertain macroeconomic context.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Bitcoin traders face a crucial test as $63,000 remains the barrier bulls must overcome before further upside.

Bitcoin stayed under pressure this week after the United States and Iran exchanged air strikes. Market sentiment worsened further after President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding and the ceasefire with Iran “is over.”

The uncertainty briefly pushed the world’s largest crypto asset close to $60,000 on Tuesday. By Thursday, however, it steadied at a little over $62,000.

Real Battle Is at $63K Against this fragile backdrop, crypto analyst Ali Martinez said Bitcoin is trading in what he described as “no man’s land” based on the MVRV Pricing Bands. According to Martinez, BTC is currently positioned between the -0.5 and -1.0 MVRV bands, indicating the market does not present a clear valuation advantage at current prices. He identified the -1.0 MVRV Pricing Band, now at $49,867, as the level he would consider a major buy signal and a prime accumulation zone if Bitcoin declines that far.

In a separate analysis, Martinez also pointed to $63,000 as a major resistance level that the crypto asset has yet to overcome. Around 623,000 BTC were previously traded near this price, making it one of the largest resistance clusters on the chart. Many investors who bought around $63,000 could choose to sell once they return to breakeven, and potentially end up increasing selling pressure. Heightened global uncertainty could also encourage some market participants to reduce risk.

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $63,000 and subsequently falls below $59,000, Martinez said on-chain transaction history identifies the next major support levels at $46,000, where roughly 115,000 BTC were transacted, and subsequently $37,870, where approximately 206,000 BTC previously changed hands.

War Chatter Hits 3-Month High Online conversations within the crypto community also picked up. Discussions about war across crypto-focused social media have climbed to their highest level since April after Trump’s fresh warning, according to Santiment. Mentions of terms such as “war,” “Iran,” and “ceasefire” spiked sharply across social platforms. Santiment said that the market could witness increased market volatility until traders gain more clarity.

However, the growing skepticism toward political announcements throughout 2026 may reduce the market impact compared with similar developments earlier this year. Even so, if tensions continue to rise, Bitcoin and altcoins could face short-term pressure, while an excessive surge in fear could eventually set the stage for a sharp relief rally as headlines ease.

You may also like: Altcoin Market Reaches Extreme Underperformance, 40% of Coins Trade Near Their ATL Japanese Firms Are Boosting BTC and XRP Holdings – SBI VC Trade Reveals Why SpaceX Bitcoin Wallet Wakes Up With a Tiny Transaction: What’s Next? Tags:

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP bounced after US President Donald Trump said that Iran had called him and wanted to make a deal. US stock futures also turned green following the completion of strikes confirmed by the US Central Command on Thursday.

President Trump Claims Iran Seeks Deal After Second Set of Strikes Stocks and crypto markets reacted positively to President Trump’s latest comments that Iran called him, saying “they want to make a deal so badly.” However, he is unsure about making a deal with Iran again amid ceasefire violations and strikes against US forces in the Middle East.

“I just don’t know if they’re worthy of making a deal. I don’t know that they’re going to honor the deal. That’s the problem,” Trump said. The White House is preparing for a multi-day or even weeks of strikes against Iran over the Strait of Hormuz control.

Bitcoin and XRP bounced after the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said U.S. forces completed strikes on nearly 90 Iranian military targets. These included air defense systems, coastal surveillance sites, missile and drone storage areas, naval assets, and logistics infrastructure

The strikes come after previous operations targeting Iranian military capabilities following attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM says its forces remain on alert and ready to respond.

Meanwhile, sources told CoinGape that Iranian officials rejected Trump’s claim that they are “begging for a deal,” stating that the Trump administration is repeatedly asking Iran to hold back and request talks.

Iran’s IRGC even attacked and hit US military infrastructure in Kuwait’s Camp Arifjan and Ali Al-Salem base in retaliation. It also carried out strikes on the US Fifth Fleet HQ and Sheikh Isa base in Bahrain in a joint missile and drone operation, as per Tasnim.

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC announces it has attacked and hit US military infrastructure in Kuwait's Camp Arifjan and Ali Al-Salem base, along with the US Fifth Fleet HQ and Sheikh Isa base in Bahrain in a joint missile and drone operation, per Tasnim.

The IRGC calls this the "first…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) July 9, 2026

Bitcon and XRP Climb Higher Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP bounced from recent lows as traders saw Trump’s remarks on Iran as signs of negotiations. BTC dipped near $61,500 earlier amid renewed US-Iran war tensions, but buy-the-dip sentiment triggered a bounce above $62,500.

XRP also recovered, holding near $1.09 after sliding from $1.16 amid US-Iran ceasefire violations. This rebound also comes amid positive developments, including Ripple signing XRP jersey patch deal with Kansas Jayhawks.

In addition, FOMC Meeting Minutes revealed that Fed officials support holding interest rates steady for longer, despite a rate hike still on the table. Bitcoin and XRP trading volumes remain in the red as traders await macro and clear technical catalysts.

Bitcoin has started July on a solid footing, consistent with its historically strong seasonal performance. Supportive comments from President Trump, including remarks that the US is “taking over crypto” and SEC pro-crypto rules changes, have helped sentiment. BIT predicted Bitcoin faces initial resistance at $65,955.

#BTC

If history repeats, things are likely going to pick up for Bitcoin and its Summer relief rally in the second half of July$BTC #Bitcoin

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 8, 2026

If you want to easily, efficiently, and quickly swap one crypto to another crypto, check out these 10 Best Crypto Swapping Sites.

On July 8, spot Bitcoin ETF flows in the United States returned to negative territory, with ETFs seeing net outflows of 84.86 million dollars for the day. Despite some modest signs of recovery earlier in the week, the numbers revealed that institutional investors remain cautious when it comes to Bitcoin.

Divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum funds widensOn the same day, spot Ethereum ETFs attracted 70.48 million dollars in net inflows, extending their positive streak to five consecutive trading days. Recent data indicates that, at least in the short term, institutional capital is showing greater interest in Ethereum than in Bitcoin.

Data for July 8 shows net outflows of 84.86 million dollars from spot Bitcoin ETFs, contrasted by inflows of 70.48 million dollars into spot Ethereum ETFs. Notably, Ethereum has now logged five straight days of positive inflows.

An ETF, or exchange-traded fund, allows investors to gain exposure to an asset’s price movements without holding the asset directly. Spot ETFs, as distinct from futures-based products, track the real-time market price of the underlying asset rather than derivatives contracts.

Bitcoin fund weakness persists following last week’s routThe recent trend in Bitcoin investment products has already been under considerable strain. Cumulative net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded 526 million dollars last week. Though there were several days of inflows that briefly slowed the exodus after a historically weak period, the renewed pullback on July 8 suggests that many investors are reluctant to re-enter the market with confidence.

Volatility in Bitcoin has been fueled by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Shifting interest rate expectations, global geopolitical tensions, and changing risk appetites are among the key drivers of ETF flows in recent weeks.

Institutional interest in Ethereum gathers momentumEthereum has shown stronger momentum with institutional inflows over the last week. The latest 70.48 million dollar addition builds on a series of consecutive positive days, indicating that, despite market volatility, some investors are carving out larger positions in ETH.

Market participants cite Ethereum’s expanding role in tokenization, decentralized finance (DeFi), and institutional blockchain infrastructure as key factors fueling demand. The growing interest from asset managers in Ethereum-based products is helping to sustain inflows even as Bitcoin funds experience turbulence.

Spot ETF movements continue to be one of the most closely watched indicators for measuring institutional sentiment toward digital assets.

ETF flows offer insight into market directionSpot ETF figures have become a crucial barometer for reading how professional investors view digital assets. Robust inflows are often interpreted as a sign of growing confidence, while sustained outflows point to a defensively oriented market stance.

Though Bitcoin ETFs posted another day of net outflows, the retreat was less dramatic than in previous weeks, suggesting that selling pressure may be stabilizing rather than intensifying. In contrast, Ethereum’s five-day inflow streak reveals that capital is being selectively deployed into areas perceived to offer more compelling short-term opportunities.

With Bitcoin trading around 62,000 dollars, ETF flows are expected to remain a leading indicator of institutional participation in the ever-sensitive and rapidly shifting crypto market in the weeks ahead.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Top Altcoins Updates: Cardano and Ethereum Strengthen Their Bullish Case

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Strategy remains under pressure as Bitcoin hovers near $60,000, but recent capital moves have bought the company time, according to Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Speaking on Morning Trade Live at the New York Stock Exchange, Ferraioli said the firm led by Michael Saylor faces scrutiny while the price of Bitcoin sits 50% below its peak. Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has funded much of its buying through preferred equity, including its variable-rate Stretch preferred stock, known as STRC.

That product fell near $70 from its $100 par value before a rebound. To defend the peg, Strategy raised the STRC dividend to 12% and authorized $2 billion in buybacks while unlocking further Bitcoin sales. The stock has since started climbing back toward par. 

“The market is supportive of these actions,” Ferraioli said, describing the response as a check on fears of cascading liquidations.

The shift marks a change in tone for a company known for a “never sell” stance. 

“We went from never sell Bitcoin to strategically sell Bitcoin,” Ferraioli said, acknowledging fair criticism. He cautioned that a lower multiple could limit Strategy’s capacity to issue shares and buy more Bitcoin in the second half of the year. 

Schwab’s perspective on Bitcoin’s slump Ferraioli weighed in on a market bump that followed comments from President Trump, who signaled openness to holding Bitcoin in the new Trump Accounts savings program. 

Ferraioli read the move as a sign of one more potential class of buyer, alongside mainstream investors who entered through spot ETFs. 

“The crypto market loves narratives,” he said, calling the asset momentum-driven.

On correlations, Ferraioli described Bitcoin as a low-correlation asset, a trait he traced to the four-year halving that cuts new supply. Past ties to tech stocks have broken down, and a historic inverse relationship with the dollar has wavered; Bitcoin has rallied during periods of dollar strength this year. 

“Starting points matter,” he said, noting that Bitcoin rose during the Iran conflict as the dollar gained.

He addressed the dollar-yen rate, which trades near 40-year lows. A stronger yen could unwind the carry trade, in which investors sell the yen to buy growth assets. Ferraioli framed a yen rebound as a possible headwind for risk assets, though not a primary near-term risk for Bitcoin.

On the debasement trade, Ferraioli pushed back on the idea that last year’s gold rally, set against a halving of Bitcoin’s market cap, disproved the store-of-value case. 

He attributed the gold move to supply constraints and momentum rather than fiscal fear. The federal budget deficit has narrowed from 8-9% of GDP to 5%, near the median across Bitcoin’s life.

“It’s not an endorsement of the fiscal health,” he said, “but it helps put that narrative in check.”

Micah Zimmerman

Micah first discovered Bitcoin in 2018 but remained a skeptic on the sidelines for too long. Since 2021, he has covered crypto and business and now works as a news reporter for Bitcoin Magazine, based in North Carolina.

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Fidelity Digital Assets has highlighted a substantial shift in the valuation of U.S. homes when measured in Bitcoin. While the average price of homes in USD has risen by over $100,000 since 2020, they have become approximately ten times cheaper in Bitcoin. This indicates a significant appreciation in Bitcoin’s value relative to the housing market, suggesting increased purchasing power for Bitcoin holders. The current market conditions, with Bitcoin prices fluctuating between $60,000 and $97,000, reflect this trend. The report underscores Bitcoin’s potential role as a store of value that can outpace inflation of fiat-denominated assets such as real estate.

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Key Takeaways Fidelity’s report suggests U.S. homes have become more affordable in Bitcoin terms, indicating Bitcoin’s value appreciation. Market pricing suggests a strong probability of Bitcoin staying above $58,000 by July 12, with a 96% YES scenario currently priced. The contrast between Bitcoin’s performance and real estate inflation appears consistent with increased interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat inflation. What to Watch Observers will be monitoring the upcoming mid-July CPI and PCE data releases, which could influence Bitcoin’s price movement. Any signs of cooler-than-expected inflation might encourage further investment in Bitcoin, consistent with scenarios where Bitcoin’s price remains above key thresholds. Additionally, actions by key financial figures, such as potential rate changes by the Federal Reserve, could further impact market sentiment and Bitcoin’s valuation against the USD.

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Term Structure

Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h July 12 2026 96.2% — — View market → July 12 2026 2.1% — — View market → July 12 2026 52.5% — — View market → July 12 2026 98.6% — — View market →

Fidelity Investments’ Global Macro Director, Jurrien Timmer, has released an updated version of the company’s widely followed performance table, which outlines investment returns over specific periods. The new table highlights a pronounced divergence among asset classes in the first half of 2026.

Striking divergence in asset returnsAccording to the rankings, which track monthly data through June 2026, emerging markets, small-cap stocks, and Japanese equities led the tables. By contrast, Bitcoin, gold, and long-term bonds occupied the lowest positions, showing a stark underperformance relative to other asset groups during the same period.

Fidelity Investments is one of the world’s largest asset management firms, operating globally across equities, bonds, and alternative investments. Jurrien Timmer is recognized for his insights into macro trends and market developments within the firm.

The updated Fidelity performance table reveals that the investment landscape shifted sharply in early 2026, with Bitcoin lagging behind most liquid asset classes.

Bitcoin, gold, and bonds clustered at the bottomIn the rightmost column of the table, which displays data up to June 2026, the orange boxes representing Bitcoin are concentrated near the bottom. This visual underscores that the leading cryptocurrency trailed most major assets in returns during the first half of the year.

Notably, both long-term US Treasury bonds and spot gold also appeared in the same lower segment, even though these assets typically react to different market dynamics. Their simultaneous weak performance drew attention from market observers.

Long-term bonds are debt instruments with extended maturities and are more sensitive to interest rate expectations than short-term bonds. As a result, changes in interest rate outlooks tend to impact their performance more significantly.

An unusual market landscape emergesThe data reveals an atypical scenario where Bitcoin, often considered a high-risk digital asset, appeared in the same underperforming group as gold, traditionally viewed as a safe haven. This concurrent decline suggests that, in the first half of 2026, investors faced pricing behavior that departed from classic risk-versus-protection distinctions.

The fact that the boxes representing Bitcoin are clustered at the bottom of the June 2026 column highlights the digital asset’s clear underperformance when compared to nearly all liquid asset classes.

Statistics also indicate a widening gap between robust equity markets and defensive assets. Investment preferences during the first half of 2026 thus reflected patterns outside traditional norms for both risk-seeking and defensive strategies.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.