Another analyst outlined the significance of $82,000 as a trend-changer.
Despite gaining over 10% since its recent multi-year low at under $58,000, bitcoin is still not out of the woods yet as the bears continue to dominate, said Ali Martinez.
Meanwhile, fellow analyst Ted Pillows believes BTC, alongside the S&P 500, is poised for more losses, but the cryptocurrency is poised to outperform the index.
Still Bear-Dominated Market In its most recent post on BTC’s market structure, Martinez outlined the three critical factors that have to change to overcome its current state. First, it’s the aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio), an on-chain metric measuring whether bitcoin investors are selling their units at a profit or a loss on average. It continues to hover below 1, showing that most sales are concluded by holders realizing losses.
“The first technical confirmation of a trend reversal from bearish to bullish will be the aSOPR metric crossing back above zero,” the analyst said.
The second is the Puell Multiple, which measures miner profitability by dividing the daily dollar value of newly issued BTC by its 365-day moving average. It shows whether miners are experiencing extreme income stress, as seen earlier this year during one of the largest miner walkouts.
The last factor brought up by Martinez was the Reserve Risk Multiple. The on-chain technical indicator demonstrates the confidence of long-term holders relative to its price, and it’s also below 1. Bitcoin would require a “confirmed break on the aSOPR, followed by zero-line breakouts on the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk Multiple” to validate the start of a new bull market.
$82K and Its Importance Michaël van de Poppe believes $82,000 holds particular significance in the current BTC structure, as the 50-week Moving Average is positioned around that level. Historically, this key MA has served as major resistance, and bitcoin solidified the end of its previous bear market only after it reclaimed that line.
At first, BTC would have to break past the 21-week MA (currently around $75,000) before heading toward the more important 50-week MA, said van de Poppe.
You may also like: Bitwise Report: Crypto Fundamentals Are Getting Stronger Despite Third Straight Negative Quarter STRC, SATA Hit Record $10B Monthly Trading High Despite Price Drop Below Par Strategy or Binance: Who’s Sitting on More Unrealized Bitcoin Losses? CryptoQuant Weighs In Separately, Ted Pillows focused on bitcoin’s relation and correlation with the S&P 500, claiming that both asset classes will “drop over the coming months.” However, he expects the cryptocurrency to emerge victorious after the final leg down. For now, though, the reality is quite different, as the index is up by over 10% this year, while BTC is down by almost 27%.
The 60-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran is officially over, at least according to President Donald Trump. His declaration, made around July 8, marked a hard pivot from a mediated pause that had briefly calmed one of the most volatile geopolitical flashpoints of 2026 back into active military engagement, and markets felt it immediately.
Bitcoin, which had climbed above $72K earlier in the year partly on relief that a US-Iran deal was holding, reversed course sharply, falling toward and below the $60K level as the ceasefire collapsed. That is a drop of more than 16% from its 2026 peak.
What actually happened The ceasefire was part of a broader series of mediated pauses that had been brokered in the earlier months of 2026, aimed at containing a conflict centered on Iranian missile capabilities, nuclear proliferation concerns, and, critically, strategic control of the Strait of Hormuz.
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The Strait of Hormuz matters enormously. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through that narrow chokepoint.
US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliatory responses broke the fragile truce. Trump’s announcement formalized what the exchange of fire had already made obvious: the ceasefire was done. He left one diplomatic door slightly ajar, noting that negotiations could still proceed through intermediaries, but the language of active hostility had returned.
Pakistan has reportedly been among the mediating parties attempting to bring both sides back to the table.
Why crypto traders are watching oil prices Oil prices surged on the renewed conflict, and that ripple hit crypto almost immediately. When oil spikes on conflict risk, it signals a broader repricing of global uncertainty. Institutional investors, who now hold significant crypto exposure, tend to reduce risk across their portfolios simultaneously. Bitcoin gets sold alongside equities, high-yield bonds, and other assets perceived as volatile.
Bitcoin’s slide toward $60K is a meaningful psychological threshold. Earlier in 2026, the asset had rallied above $72K, with the conditional ceasefire and a generally risk-on environment providing fuel.
The Strait of Hormuz angle adds another layer of complexity for energy-intensive industries, including crypto mining. A sustained oil shock that translates into broader energy price increases puts upward pressure on mining costs, which can reduce miner profitability and, in a prolonged scenario, affect the hash rate and network security dynamics of proof-of-work blockchains like Bitcoin.
What investors should watch next The nuclear dimension cannot be ignored either. The original ceasefire framework was designed partly around constraining Iranian missile and nuclear programs. A full breakdown of that framework reopens questions about nuclear proliferation that markets had tentatively set aside.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has staged a cautious recovery, reclaiming the key $64,000 resistance level as strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to support investor demand despite Strategy’s sales. BTC was trading at $64,150, up by 11% from its lowest level this year.
Bitcoin Price Rises as ETF Inflows RisesAmerican investors have started buying Bitcoin ETFs, a sign that they expect it to bounce back after falling by 55% from its highest point on record.
Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have added $124 million in inflows this month. This is a good reversal after they experienced substantial outflows in May and June. They lost close to $7 billion in those two months.
Its goal is to raise over $1.5 billion in assets to boost its cash reserves after its preferred stocks came under pressure.
Empery Digital, another Bitcoin Treasury, another company, sold 1,400 coins to boost its cash reserves as it pivots to the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. Other companies may start selling their coins in the coming months, with some selling them at a loss.
Some analysts are optimistic that Bitcoin will rebound in the near term. In a recent statement, Standard Chartered, a top emerging market-focused bank, maintained its $100,000 price target. It also expects that the coin will jump to $500,000 in the long term. Bernstein, on the other hand, boosted its outlook to $150,000.
BTC Price Prediction: Technical AnalysisTechnicals suggest that Bitcoin has more upside potential in the near term. It has already jumped from a low of $58,130 to the current $64,100.
The coin has jumped above the 25-day moving average, a sign that the bulls have prevailed. Also, the two lines of the Percentage Price Oscillator have made a bullish crossover and are nearing the neutral level.
Bitcoin has also formed a double-bottom pattern and is nearing the neckline at $67,135. Therefore, BTC may continue rising, potentially to $80,000, a move that will be confirmed if it crosses the neckline at $67,135.
Image: Shutterstock
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Benjamin Cowen, a well-known data analyst in the cryptocurrency market, issued critical warnings to Bitcoin (BTC) investors.
Cowen, noting the similarity between current market dynamics and past major bear markets, said, “History is repeating itself,” and warned investors for the coming months.
Cowen noted that the current cycle in the Bitcoin market bears an eerily strong resemblance to past years, particularly the 2018 bear market. The analyst, essentially issuing a “three-month timeframe” warning to investors, argued that a final capitulation drop in the market may not yet have occurred.
Cowen argued that the price movements on the charts matched perfectly over time, using the following data:
February Lows: Both in 2018 and in the current period, a significant low was reached in February. March-April Rising Lows: In both periods, a higher low was recorded at the end of March and the beginning of April. Bitcoin experienced a local rally towards its 200-day moving average (MA) in May in both cycles. The most striking similarity occurred at the end of June and the beginning of July. In June 2018, Bitcoin hit a low of $5,700 before rebounding, and in this cycle, the $57,000 level was tested during the June/July period.
The analyst stated, “I keep telling myself that this pattern won’t continue, but the market stubbornly persists in playing this pattern.”
Cowen noted that historical data suggests a short-term and temporary relief rally might occur in July, but warned that these increases may not be permanent. Recalling that bear markets typically reach their final lows in the fourth quarter (Q4), the analyst predicted that this time, due to the peaks of time-based indicators, the final bottom could come earlier, perhaps at the end of September or in October.
Cowen shared possible bottom scenarios for Bitcoin by examining on-chain data and indicators:
The analyst estimates the probability of the absolute bottom having already been reached at only 40 to 45 percent. Therefore, the likelihood of one final downturn is higher. Cowen, noting that Bitcoin could fall below its “realized price” currently around $53,000, considers a drop to the highs of $40,000 and the lows of $50,000 a reasonable expectation. The ultimate “equilibrium price,” where all on-chain indicators would be completely reset and the bearish trend would end entirely, is currently just below $40,000. Cowen stated that a potential wick to this level would completely remove bearish scenarios from the table and signal a full-fledged shift to a “bullish outlook.” Explaining the macroeconomic reason behind this expected decline, the data scientist stated that the 10% to 20% corrections that periodically occur in stock markets in August or September are the factor that triggers the recent capitulation in Bitcoin. However, he argued that the decline in stock markets following this potential shock would force the Fed to cut interest rates, and that this would be the main fuel for a major rise (bull market) for cryptocurrencies as we enter 2027.
*This is not investment advice.
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The US has given Iran until Saturday to publicly commit to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and halt attacks on commercial shipping, or face unspecified consequences. A senior US official confirmed the ultimatum, which lands at a moment when roughly 20% of global oil shipments flow through the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula.
For crypto markets, the timing is inconvenient. Bitcoin dropped to around $61,688 on July 9 as geopolitical fear drove investors toward the exits, a sharp reversal from prices above $65,000 that followed earlier de-escalation signals.
What’s actually happening in the Strait Iran’s escalation against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz began ramping up in February 2026, setting off months of tit-for-tat confrontations with Washington.
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By mid-June, the two sides had reached a memorandum of understanding designed to restore safe passage through the chokepoint. That agreement has since deteriorated. Attacks on shipping resumed, and the US responded with military strikes in early July. The new Saturday deadline represents Washington’s latest attempt to force a resolution, though multiple prior deadlines in 2026 have produced only temporary ceasefires that didn’t hold.
The crypto angle is bigger than you think US authorities have frozen $344 million in crypto assets linked to Iranian activities amid this crisis. The seizure underscores Washington’s growing focus on cryptocurrency as a potential tool for sanctions evasion. There is limited evidence that Bitcoin is being used directly for transit payments connected to the Strait.
Why Saturday matters for your portfolio Bitcoin’s sensitivity to these events has been consistent throughout the 2026 Hormuz crisis. Each escalation has triggered sell-offs, and each diplomatic breakthrough has produced recoveries. When the initial memorandum of understanding was announced in June, Bitcoin pushed back above $65,000 as risk appetite returned.
More sanctions would likely mean more crypto asset freezes and more compliance pressure for exchanges. Expanded military action would spike oil prices, which historically correlates with broader risk-off sentiment.
The $344 million in frozen crypto assets is worth watching as a leading indicator. If that number grows significantly, it would suggest the US is expanding its enforcement net, with implications for exchanges and market liquidity beyond this particular crisis.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
The worrisome trend has been extended to new companies after the recent sales by many miners and Strategy.
Bitcoin corporate treasury firms became a major thing in the past couple of years, led, of course, by Michael Saylor’s Strategy. Several such entities emerged during more favorable times for the entire crypto industry. Now, though, the landscape has changed, and there’s a new seller on the horizon.
Empery Digital has disposed of 1,400 BTC for just over $87 million, becoming the latest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury firm to monetize part of its holdings amid ongoing market pressure.
Empery Sells Too The firm published a Form 8-K filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission indicating that it has sold the units between May 7 and July 10 at an average price of approximately $62,200 per bitcoin. As such, it has reduced its crypto reserve by nearly half. As of the filing day of July 10, Empery held 1,514 BTC compared to 2,914 before the sales, alongside almost $74 million in cash.
The company said it will use the proceeds to support several corporate priorities rather than signal a complete withdrawal from bitcoin. Empery Digital’s EMPD stock actually rose by over 1.5% on Friday after the BTC sale news went viral.
The entity added that it used $10 million to repay part of its outstanding debt on July 7, leaving $45 million under its debt facility. Additional proceeds are earmarked for ongoing operations and high legal expenses connected to stockholder litigation. It will deploy a substantial portion of the newly acquired cash to help finance a previously announced property acquisition.
It also plans to expand into AI infrastructure, agreeing to invest $65 million for a 25% stake in a Hunt Properties-managed entity that is acquiring and redeveloping a power-intensive industrial facility in the US.
Joining the Pack As mentioned above, Empery Digital has joined a growing list of companies selling their BTC during this time of market distress. The largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency actually made two sales in the past few months. The first was a minor one for just 32 units, while the second, announced earlier this week, was for a more significant 3,588 BTC.
You may also like: Bitcoin Shrugs Off Strategy FUD, Hits New 2-Week Peak in Early Signs of Structural Stabilization How Bitcoin Survived Its Biggest Miner Walkout Critics Say BIP-110 Could Break Self-Custody and Risk User Funds Analysts continue to debate whether this is only a net-negative development for bitcoin or if there is more to the story. The reality is that miners also made similar moves before Strategy. As reported in April, BTC miners sold more units in Q1 this year than the entire 2025 combined. On-chain data show they had disposed of over 32,000 BTC in Q1, which was described as the largest quarterly liquidation on record.
Real Vision Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts said that Bitcoin may be approaching the final stages of its current bear market, but the downturn is not yet technically over. According to Coutts, some signals emerging from long-term indicators suggest that selling pressure and negative momentum are beginning to weaken.
The Bitcoin price is trading approximately 50 percent below its all-time high of $126,100 recorded in October 2025. Coutts described the current price movement as a “typical bear market,” noting that Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased by about 50 percent compared to the previous market cycle.
According to the analyst, the decrease in volatility suggests that the current bear market may not be as severe as in the past. However, Coutts cautioned against assuming the market will repeat past cycles exactly, noting that all of the trend indicators being followed are still significantly bearish.
Coutts stated that bullish divergences are beginning to appear in long-term momentum indicators. While noting that this suggests a slowdown in negative momentum, the analyst added that these signals do not necessarily mean Bitcoin has technically exited a bear market.
Coutts stated that tightening global liquidity conditions, as well as deterioration in on-chain demand, played a significant role in Bitcoin’s previous decline, and indicated that demand indicators need to strengthen again for a sustainable recovery.
Coutts, however, takes a more cautious approach to long-term price predictions, stating that he is skeptical of expectations that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030. The analyst considers a rise in BTC to the $200,000 to $250,000 range within the next two to three years a more realistic scenario.
Coutts also argued that the Bitcoin community needs to address the potential threats posed by quantum computers more openly before 2027. Noting that preparing, testing, and implementing large-scale protocol updates can take approximately five years, Coutts called for early action against potential security risks.
*This is not investment advice.
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Galaxy Digital transferred 2,500 BTC, approximately $160 million in Bitcoin, to cryptocurrency exchange wallets in the past 24 hours. The move drew significant attention from traders, as large Bitcoin transfers to exchanges are often seen as a possible precursor to asset liquidation.
Details of the Bitcoin TransferBlockchain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that Galaxy Digital moved a total of 2,500 BTC, with most of the assets sent to wallets associated with cryptocurrency exchanges. While such movements frequently generate speculation about impending sales, transferring assets to exchange wallets does not necessarily confirm that a sale will occur.
Large deposits to exchange wallets typically stir speculation among traders, but on-chain transfers to these wallets cannot be interpreted as definite signs of selling activity.
According to the latest data, the on-chain cryptocurrency portfolio held by Galaxy Digital now exceeds $508 million, based on figures compiled by Arkham Intelligence. Despite the substantial movement of BTC into exchanges, the portfolio snapshot confirms that Bitcoin continues to represent Galaxy Digital’s largest on-chain holding, illustrating the firm’s underlying confidence in the asset.
Breakdown of Galaxy Digital’s PortfolioGalaxy Digital’s publicly visible crypto holdings include approximately 2,634 BTC valued at $169 million, 49,005 LSETH estimated at $98 million, and 38,800 ETH totaling nearly $70 million. The firm also holds 1,005 CBBTC valued at around $64 million, as well as stablecoins composed of 32.84 million USDC and 17.92 million USDT.
Mini dictionary: Galaxy Digital is a leading financial services and investment management firm that focuses on digital assets, cryptocurrencies, and blockchain technology.
AssetAmountValueBTC2,634$169 millionLSETH49,005$98 millionETH38,800$70 millionCBBTC1,005$64 millionUSDC32.84 millionStablecoinUSDT17.92 millionStablecoinBitcoin Price and Market ReactionBitcoin is currently trading at $64,262, marking a slight increase of 0.05% over the previous day. Trading volumes for the day reached $27.28 billion, while Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at $1.29 trillion. The coin currently commands a market dominance of 58.62%. Despite Galaxy Digital’s movement of BTC to exchanges, the market response so far has remained muted.
Market watchers are monitoring whether the transferred Bitcoin remains on exchanges, is shifted to over-the-counter (OTC) settlement wallets, or leaves exchange platforms without passing through public order books. Further blockchain data or a formal statement from Galaxy Digital may shed more light on the motivation behind these transfers.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI), a nonprofit dedicated to cryptocurrency policy research, has moved to intervene in a controversial lawsuit that seeks to claim ownership of an estimated 3.7 million dormant bitcoin, currently valued at around $274 billion according to Galaxy Research.
BPI intervenes in dormant bitcoin lawsuitThe lawsuit, filed in New York County Supreme Court, is led by an individual using the pseudonym Noah Doe. Plaintiffs argue that bitcoin left untouched in nearly 39,000 wallets should be considered “abandoned property” under New York’s Article 7-B of the Personal Property Law, a statute designed for unclaimed physical assets.
In their claim, the plaintiffs detailed efforts to contact wallet owners by reporting the dormant addresses to the New York City Police Department and sending messages through Bitcoin’s OP_RETURN feature. After waiting 90 days without response, they petitioned the court to declare the wallets abandoned.
The targeted wallets reportedly include approximately 1.10 million BTC associated with Satoshi-era addresses—the period during which bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, was active—as well as about 80,000 BTC believed to be linked to the 2011 Mt. Gox exchange hack.
BPI announced its participation as a defendant through a post on X, and is being represented by the global law firm White & Case. The institute has filed a proposed answer, laid out 15 affirmative defenses, and indicated an intention to submit a motion to dismiss the case.
Judge Kathy J. King has paused all proceedings in the lawsuit until a hearing set for July 14. In the meantime, two amicus briefs have been submitted in opposition to the plaintiffs’ approach—one by attorney Ian Cohen, and another from the Digital Chamber, a prominent blockchain industry group.
Galaxy Research evaluated the dormant bitcoin’s market value at nearly $274 billion in late May, but legal analysts have expressed doubt that the plaintiffs could enforce or execute such a claim.
The BPI, supported by White & Case, challenges the legal basis of seizing dormant coins, stating that without access to the private keys, ownership cannot be transferred under bitcoin’s current protocol.
Noah Doe and plaintiffs have acknowledged they do not possess the private keys for any of the wallets in question. Cryptocurrency industry publication Cryptopolitan previously emphasized that bitcoin’s structure offers no means to change wallet ownership without the original private key.
Legal challenges and industry responseAlex Thorn, Director of Research at Galaxy, observed that the plaintiffs removed 44 wallet addresses from their filing after these wallets showed activity following the public initiation of the lawsuit. Such movements undermine claims that these bitcoin holdings can be classified as truly abandoned assets.
Other legal stakeholders have intervened. Before BPI’s involvement, an anonymous defendant known as John Doe 33 participated by filing a verified answer and affirmative defenses, acting without legal counsel. John Doe 33 contends that public cryptocurrency addresses are not legal entities and thus cannot be subject to lawsuits. He also claims that copying wallet data does not constitute possession or control of funds, further challenging the basis of the lawsuit.
John Doe 33 noted that attempts to contact wallet owners through OP_RETURN messages are often ineffective, as many wallets do not surface these messages and users with cold storage typically have no reason to review them. He further alleged that at least one wallet owner contacted the plaintiffs’ legal team, discrediting the narrative that the owners are unidentifiable or unreachable.
Attorney Ian Cohen, in a brief dated May 29, argued that treating dormant bitcoin as abandoned property misapplies New York law, which traditionally applies only to tangible assets like jewelry or cash. The Digital Chamber, supported by consulting firm CahillNXT and attorney Stephen Palley of Brown Rudnick, echoed these arguments in a separate brief filed on July 7.
Mini dictionary: Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI), a nonprofit U.S. organization focused on research and policy discussions surrounding the social and economic impacts of bitcoin and public digital assets.
EntityRole in CaseKey ArgumentBPIDefendant/IntervenorBitcoin cannot be reassigned without private keysNoah Doe (Plaintiff)PlaintiffDormant wallets are abandoned property under state lawJohn Doe 33DefendantAddresses are not legal persons, copying data doesn’t confer ownershipIan CohenAmicus CuriaeState law on abandonment applies only to physical assetsDigital ChamberAmicus CuriaeSupports arguments that bitcoin protocol cannot enable reassignmentDisclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust added nearly 1,000 BTC, lifting tracked holdings to 5,761 coins in two weeks. The trust had drawn about $408 million in net inflows by July 10 despite sustained Bitcoin market weakness. Bitcoin traded about 11% above Fidelity’s lower power-law support boundary in the model published on July 5. Three Glassnode-based indicators remained below neutral levels, keeping a bullish reversal unconfirmed. Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin product continued attracting investor capital during the market downturn, adding nearly 1,000 BTC within two weeks. As a result, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust’s tracked holdings climbed to 5,761 BTC, worth approximately $370 million, with the asset trading near $64,000.
The increase reflected continued demand for the bank-affiliated investment product despite weaker market conditions. Nevertheless, key on-chain indicators remained below their bullish thresholds, suggesting that accumulation was strengthening even though a broader market reversal had not yet been confirmed.
Morgan Stanley Trust Adds BTC as Fund Inflows Continue Arkham Intelligence linked the increase to several large transfers from Coinbase Prime into wallets associated with the trust. The deposits included 495.8, 171.9, 166.2, 154.8, 143.3, 126.1, and 120.4 BTC.
Source: Arkham Intelligence
Arkham separately said the product received roughly $13.2 million in Bitcoin during the week. The platform reported that the wallets had recorded no sale since May. However, its post lacked transaction links needed to verify every attribution independently.
MORGAN STANLEY IS BUYING BITCOIN
Morgan Stanley bought $13.2M of Bitcoin this week. They have not sold Bitcoin since May.
Will they keep buying for the rest of this month? pic.twitter.com/jZF00QikS4
— Arkham (@arkham) July 11, 2026
Nevertheless, the activity does not represent a corporate treasury purchase by Morgan Stanley. Instead, the trust holds the asset for shareholders through a passive exchange-traded structure.
Moreover, its SEC prospectus states that the fund does not attempt to identify market bottoms or sell at market peaks. Consequently, changes in its holdings generally reflect share creations, redemptions and other settlement activity rather than discretionary trading decisions.
Morgan Stanley launched the product on NYSE Arca on April 8, making it the first cryptocurrency exchange-traded product offered by a United States bank-affiliated asset manager. Since then, investor demand has remained firm despite weaker market conditions.
According to Farside Investors, the fund had recorded about $408 million in net inflows by July 10. Therefore, the expanding Bitcoin balance points to continued participation
Bitcoin Nears Power-Law Support as Reversal Signals Lag Meanwhile, Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer said Bitcoin was moving closer to a long-term power-law support line. His chart analysis placed the asset at $62,685, while the model’s lower boundary stood near $56,488.
As a result, Bitcoin remained roughly 11% above the projected support level at the time. Although previous downturns developed near the same band, the model provides historical context rather than confirmation of a market bottom.
JUST IN: Fidelity's 'Bitcoin's Support & Resistance' data shows BTC in an accumulation zone and "getting ever closer to its power law support line" 👀
Buy the dip 🚀 pic.twitter.com/vFEmPAJPux
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 11, 2026
At the same time, analyst Ali Martinez pointed to three Glassnode-based indicators that remained below their neutral thresholds. Those measures included the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio, the Puell Multiple and the Reserve Risk Multiple.
Martinez’s indexed chart subtracts one from each underlying multiple, which places the neutral threshold at zero. Therefore, a negative aSOPR reading indicates that transferred coins were sold at an average loss.
Glassnode also excludes outputs held for less than one hour when calculating aSOPR. By removing these short-lived transactions, the adjustment reduces market noise and provides a clearer view of realized profitability.
Meanwhile, the Puell Multiple compares the daily dollar value of miner revenue with its 365-day average. A reading below one shows that miner income remains below its annual benchmark.
BITCOIN IS STILL IN BEAR MARKET TERRITORY
Three key indicators—the aSOPR – 1 (x10), the Puell Multiple – 1, and the Reserve Risk Multiple – 1—are all currently hovering below the zero line, confirming a dominant bearish posture.
For these specific indexed metrics, values below… pic.twitter.com/lZEV6TQ1k5
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) July 11, 2026
Reserve Risk, by comparison, measures Bitcoin’s price against the conviction of long-term holders. Low readings suggest that committed investors remain reluctant to sell despite weaker market conditions.
Martinez identified an aSOPR move above zero as the first possible signal of a broader reversal. Further breakouts in the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk Multiple would provide stronger confirmation of a bullish transition.
Until those thresholds are crossed, the data supports an accumulation narrative rather than a confirmed recovery. Therefore, the trust’s rising holdings reflect sustained investor demand, while the broader market continues to show restraint.
Metaplanet plans to turn Strategy’s STRC design into a digital credit framework to help the Bitcoin treasury firm and other small firms locked out of Japan’s rigid bond market.
To achieve this plan, dubbed Project Nova, the firm has partnered with Metaplanet Securities, stablecoin issuer JPYC, and tokenization firm Progmat.
According to the arrangement, the Bitcoin-backed digital credit framework will use Metaplanet’s BTC holdings (currently at 43K coins) as collateral.
However, unlike the yield-paying STRC that is issued only by Strategy, other mid-sized and high-growth firms in Japan can leverage the platform. They can issue their own tokenized digital credit to investors. Think of it as an open marketplace for other firms to issue their credit directly to investors.
The study aims to explore the possibility of round-the-clock trading and settlement with daily interest. Underscoring the importance of the project, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich said,
This is Project NOVA at work: using Bitcoin’s strength as an asset to open Japan’s credit markets to companies the current system prices out.
Earlier this year, the firm launched a venture capital firm and asset management subsidiaries. The first investment was in JPYC, a regulated stablecoin issuer in Japan, and Project Nova partner. The subsidiaries are meant to be at the center of its digital credit and BTC capital markets.
Four months later, the recent study into a white label platform for BTC-backed digital credit now unravels the firm’s aggressive long-term BTC plan. The move also comes at a time when Japan is reviewing crypto ETF approvals.
Assessing Bitcoin’s digital credit market Pioneered by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, BTC digital credit refers to debt instruments like preferred stocks (like Stetch [STRC]) or convertible loans backed by the firm’s crypto holdings.
Metaplanet and Bitmine (the world’s largest Ethereum treasury) are both exploring STRC-like instruments for more crypto accumulation.
Interestingly, STRC faced a market distress and trust test after de-pegging from its $100-target level. Despite the de-peg, volumes remained strong as buyers came in to pick the stock at its lows.
STRC did about $9 billion in June, according to a report by Bitcoin Treasuries. In fact, the stock has since recovered to close to its $100, underscoring renewed confidence and trust in BTC digital credit.
Source: Bitcoin Treasuries It’s unclear how the Japanese market will receive the BTC-backed digital credit plans. In the meantime, Metaplanet’s stock jumped 4% following the update.
Final Summary Metaplanet is evaluating the feasibility of launching an open marketplace for BTC-backed digital credit for Japanese small firms. It remains unclear whether Japan’s regulators and market will embrace the plan.
US prosecutors plan to dismiss Matthew Goettsche’s BitClub charges with prejudice before his October trial. The DOJ’s case alleged BitClub collected at least $722 million in Bitcoin through manipulated mining returns. The proposed dismissal follows nearly seven years of litigation and review of about two million records. Several BitClub associates already pleaded guilty to fraud, securities, money laundering, or tax offenses. US prosecutors are preparing to end the criminal case against Matthew Goettsche, the alleged architect of the $722 million BitClub Network scheme. The planned move comes shortly before an October trial that could have tested one of the government’s longest-running cryptocurrency fraud prosecutions.
According to a Bloomberg Law report, the DOJ has directed federal attorneys in New Jersey to seek dismissal with prejudice. In a July 8 letter, defense lawyers told U.S. District Judge Claire Cecchi that both sides had reached an agreement in principle. However, they said more time was needed to complete its terms and obtain formal court approval.
BitClub Fraud Case Nears Dismissal Before October Trial Goettsche was indicted in December 2019 on charges involving wire fraud conspiracy and the sale of unregistered securities. Prosecutors said BitClub operated from April 2014 to December 2019, selling shares in cryptocurrency mining pools to investors worldwide.
🚨 DOJ DROPPING CHARGES AGAINST ALLEGED MASTERMIND OF $722M CRYPTO PONZI SCHEME
Matthew Goettsche was indicted in 2019 over claims BitClub Network used fake crypto mining profits and recruitment rewards to defraud investors.
He was set to stand trial in October, but prosecutors… pic.twitter.com/7WGWopB33i
— CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) July 11, 2026
In addition to purchasing mining shares, participants received rewards for recruiting new members. Prosecutors said this structure combined investment sales with aggressive network marketing. Over its five-year operation, BitClub allegedly collected at least $722 million in Bitcoin.
According to the indictment, the platform’s operators manipulated displayed mining returns and overstated the daily earnings presented to customers. Prosecutors further alleged that investor funds were not always used to purchase the mining equipment promoted by the company.
Internal communications also formed a central part of the government’s case. In those exchanges, prosecutors said Goettsche referred to prospective investors as “dumb” and “sheep” while discussing how the business could attract them.
Moreover, Goettsche allegedly instructed a collaborator to increase displayed daily mining earnings by 60%. The order came despite warnings that the adjustment was unsustainable and resembled a Ponzi-style operation.
The proposed dismissal follows nearly seven years of litigation, repeated plea negotiations and the review of approximately two million electronic records. Against that backdrop, Goettsche recently argued that the prolonged proceedings violated his constitutional right to a speedy trial.
DOJ Policy Shift Meets Prior BitClub Guilty Pleas Bloomberg reported that Goettsche’s lawyers contacted senior DOJ officials after earlier settlement discussions collapsed. A department spokesperson said officials later reassessed the case because of its age and the amount expected to be recovered for investors.
However, the spokesperson denied that pressure from Goettsche’s legal team influenced the decision. Should the court approve a dismissal with prejudice, US prosecutors would be permanently barred from refiling the same charges against him.
Such an outcome would contrast sharply with the cases of several BitClub associates who previously admitted criminal conduct. One such, Romanian programmer Silviu Catalin Balaci, pleaded guilty to helping alter the mining earnings displayed to investors.
Similarly, promoters Joseph Abel and Jobadiah Weeks admitted selling unregistered BitClub shares. Gordon Beckstead also pleaded guilty to money laundering and tax offenses involving more than $50 million in transfers.
The reported resolution also follows an April 2025 DOJ memorandum that narrowed criminal enforcement centered mainly on registration violations. Nevertheless, the policy continued to prioritize fraud cases involving financial harm to cryptocurrency investors.
Consequently, the proposed dismissal would end the central prosecution without a jury ruling on the government’s fraud allegations. However, it would not necessarily signal a broader retreat from cryptocurrency fraud enforcement.
Until prosecutors formally file the dismissal request and Judge Claire Cecchi approves it, Goettsche remains charged. He also continues to be legally presumed innocent.
Bitcoin continued to rebound after recent declines, with its price reaching $64,294 and showing modest gains over the past 24 hours. Trading volume stood at $20.37 billion, while Bitcoin’s overall market capitalization held at $1.29 trillion. Despite ongoing market uncertainty, the cryptocurrency registered a 0.69% increase within the last 24 hours, reflecting persisting buyer interest.
On-chain indicators hold back bullish momentumCrypto analyst Ali Martinez stated on July 11, 2026, that three key on-chain metrics indicate Bitcoin has not yet entered a full bullish cycle. Martinez highlighted the aSOPR – 1 (x10), Puell Multiple – 1, and Reserve Risk Multiple – 1, all of which remain below the neutral threshold of zero. These indicators are utilized to track investor behavior, mining sector health, and trader confidence across the Bitcoin network.
Each of these metrics remaining in negative territory suggests the extended accumulation phase for Bitcoin is ongoing. In such periods, market participants are typically seen selling at a loss, miners report lower profitability, and overall long-term optimism is muted.
Martinez identified the aSOPR indicator as the first signal to watch for a potential market reversal. When aSOPR crosses above zero, followed by similar moves in the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk Multiple, this could mark the official onset of a fresh bull run.
Martinez noted that confirmation of bullish momentum would be signaled once all three on-chain indicators break above zero, marking the end of the accumulation phase and the probable start of a new Bitcoin uptrend.
While the price has climbed from its recent lows, these on-chain signals have not yet confirmed the beginning of a sustained upward trend for Bitcoin.
Mini dictionary: aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures whether spent outputs are in profit or loss, indicating if current holders are selling at a gain or a loss. The Puell Multiple analyzes miner revenue compared to historical averages, and Reserve Risk evaluates the confidence of long-term holders relative to price.
Short-term technicals show signs of recoveryRecent short-term technical analysis paints a more positive scenario. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 53.93, with its moving average now at 45.23. Since the RSI sits above the neutral 50 mark yet remains below the overbought zone, this suggests building buying pressure without signs of overheating.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has also delivered a bullish signal. The MACD value of -287.91 has crossed above its signal line at -900.37, while the histogram transitioned into positive territory at 612.46, reinforcing the notion of growing upward momentum.
Should Bitcoin hold above its current support levels, analysts believe further short-term gains are possible. However, the mixed outlook from long-term on-chain data and short-term technical indicators keeps the broader market cautious.
MetricCurrent ValueStatusImplicationBTC Price$64,294RisingRecovery from lowsaSOPR – 1 (x10)Below 0NegativeProfit-taking absentPuell Multiple – 1Below 0NegativeMiner revenues lowReserve Risk Multiple – 1Below 0NegativeLow long-term confidenceRSI53.93Above neutralStrength returningMACD Histogram612.46PositiveBullish crossoverAwaiting a confirmed breakoutShort-term traders may interpret these technical signals as encouraging, while those focused on long-term cycles watch the on-chain metrics for a definitive breakout above zero.
Experts point out that interim rallies can occur during accumulation, making it crucial for investors to monitor both types of indicators. For sustained confidence in a new bull cycle, markets will look for all three on-chain metrics to confirm a shift by crossing above zero.
Until that alignment takes place, both investors and analysts maintain a cautious outlook, balancing recent positive signals against lingering uncertainty in the broader crypto market.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The U.S.-Iran war is again escalating as the U.S. carried out airstrikes against Iran tonight after the latter declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again. Bitcoin has fallen below the psychological $64,000 level as Iran has vowed to retaliate against these latest strikes.
U.S.-Iran War Escalates With Fresh Wave Of Strikes In an X post, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that its forces launched the third round of strikes this week against Iran today, on President Trump’s orders. CENTCOM noted that the latest strikes followed Iran’s attack on a commercial ship that was transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
“A civilian crew member is missing, and the vessel is unable to continue the journey due to an onboard fire and significant engine room damage,” the post read. CENNTCOM also said that Iran has failed to demonstrate adherence to the Memorandum of Understanding in the U.S.-Iran war, after its earlier attacks on commercial oil tankers transiting the Hormuz Strait.
“In response, the United States is imposing a heavy cost by continuing to degrade Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the strait,” CENTCOM added. It is worth noting that the latest U.S. strikes follow Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy’s statement that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz until further notice.
The IRGC also confirmed that it fired a warning shot at a vessel that was attempting to transit along an unapproved route in the Strait of Hormuz. As CoinGape reported earlier, the U.S.-Iran war had shown signs of escalation after Iran rejected further talks with the U.S. until the U.S. reverses its position on Iran’s control of the Strait.
Bitcoin Falls Below $64,000 Bitcoin fell below the psychological $64,000 level amid the U.S. strikes on Iran. The leading crypto is currently trading at around $63,700, down from a daily high above $64,000, according to TradingView data.
Source: TradingView; Bitcoin daily chart The BTC price climbed above $64,000 last week after President Trump said Iran had requested to resume talks, which the U.S. agreed to, even though the ceasefire was over. However, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are now at risk again as the U.S.-Iran war threatens to further escalate.
This week is also set to be a huge week for the crypto market with the CPI and PPI releases on July 14 and 15, respectively. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to testify before Congress on July 14 and July 15 and could provide hints about the direction for monetary policy ahead of the July FOMC meeting.
Predict.fun World Cup Knockout Stage: England’s qualification probability stands at 64%, while Norway only secures 35% market support.
Data from prediction market platform Predict.fun shows that the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal will pit Norway against England. As of press time, the market assigns England a roughly 64% probability of advancing, while Norway’s advancement odds stand at around 35%. Notably, Norway, making its first-ever appearance in the World Cup quarterfinals, has already notched its best result in team history. The side’s top striker Haaland has netted 7 goals in the tournament, including a brace in just 11 minutes during the previous round to help Norway eliminate Brazil. For England, Kane has contributed 6 goals, with players like Bellingham and Gordon also consistently chipping in offensively. However, England has conceded goals in two straight knockout matches. Against the in-form Haaland, containing his performance will be the key to deciding the match’s winner.
8 hours ago
Polymarket generated $1.88 million in revenue over the past 24 hours, placing it third among crypto protocols.
According to Defillama data, Polymarket generated $1.88 million in revenue over the past 24 hours, surpassing Canton and Hyperliquid to rank as the 3rd highest-earning crypto protocol. The protocol’s cumulative revenue has exceeded $94 million.
8 hours ago
JPMorgan Chase is testing an AI investment agent that can autonomously adjust stock and bond allocations.
JPMorgan Chase is testing AI agents that can autonomously adjust the proportion of stock and bond investments to dynamically rebalance portfolios based on changes in market conditions. Test results show that in a 20-year historical backtest, the best-performing AI model delivered an annualized return 0.7 percentage points higher than the traditional "60/40" stock-bond portfolio, while also boasting lower volatility. All 8 AI agents tested by JPMorgan achieved higher risk-adjusted returns. However, the bank noted that the results are still based on simulated tests and do not represent actual investment performance. JPMorgan also warned that large-scale adoption of AI could lead to convergence of trading strategies, increase crowded trades, and amplify market volatility under stressed conditions.
8 hours ago
Yangtze Memory Technologies announced its IPO advisory team, comprising a total of 31 members from CITIC Securities and China Securities Co., Ltd.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) official website updated the first-phase progress report on Changjiang Storage’s IPO counseling work on July 10. A total of 31 personnel from two securities firms, CITIC Securities and China Securities Construction Investment, form the counseling team. The current counseling period runs from May 19 to June 30, 2026, with work carried out via multiple methods including on-site due diligence, centralized training sessions, and targeted issue communications. The next phase of counseling will focus on two areas: First, for issues identified during the process, coordinate timely discussions between intermediaries and the company, develop standardization plans, and urge the counseled entity to fully implement rectification requirements. The working group will also continue to push the company to improve its corporate governance and internal control systems, enhancing its standardized operation level. Second, urge the company to thoroughly understand laws, regulations and rules related to issuance, listing and standardized operation, and clarify its responsibilities and obligations in areas such as information disclosure and fulfillment of commitments. (Jinshi)
8 hours ago
Analyst: Bitcoin may be entering the final stage of a bear market, projected to rise to $250,000 over the next two to three years.
Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts has stated that Bitcoin may be entering the late stages of its current bear market. While the bear market is not yet over, downward momentum has begun to weaken. The current BTC price is roughly 50% lower than its all-time high of $126,100 set in October 2025. Coutts described the current trend as a “typical bear market,” pointing out that Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen by around 50% compared to the previous cycle, suggesting this downturn may not be as severe as prior bear markets. However, he cautioned that all current trend indicators remain clearly bearish, and markets do not mechanically replicate historical cycles. He noted that longer-term momentum indicators are starting to show bullish divergence, signaling that negative momentum is decelerating—but this does not mean Bitcoin has technically exited the bear market. Beyond tightening global liquidity, deteriorating on-chain demand was a key factor driving Bitcoin’s earlier decline. On long-term price projections, Coutts is cautious about Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030; instead, he forecasts BTC will rise to $200,000–$250,000 over the next two to three years. He also warned that the Bitcoin community needs to address the potential threat of quantum computing more definitively by 2027, as major protocol upgrades could take approximately five years to complete.
8 hours ago
The probability that Bitcoin will rise to $70,000 this year has climbed to 79%.
Prediction market platform Polymarket now puts the probability of Bitcoin rising to $70,000 this year at 79%, up from 54% as of June 26. Additionally, the odds of Bitcoin hitting $80,000 stand at 32%, while the probability of it reaching $90,000 is 19%.
Ethereum‘s MVRV ratio, a closely watched on-chain metric, has again dropped below the 0.8 threshold, drawing renewed focus to the cryptocurrency’s potential for reversal. This ratio is widely used by market analysts to gauge when an asset enters deep discounted territory, often preceding a significant price bottom for Ethereum.
Historical patterns and analyst observationsCrypto analyst Ali highlighted that Ethereum’s MVRV ratio dipping beneath 0.8 often coincided with major market downturns and subsequent recoveries. In the past, this pattern was observed in December 2018, March 2020, and June 2022. Each occasion marked a local bottom for ETH, followed by a notable bullish phase.
Ali explained that the MVRV drop typically indicates seller fatigue, where Ethereum’s market value falls well under its realized value, increasing the probability of an accumulation phase.
In all three previous instances when Ethereum’s MVRV ratio crossed below 0.8, the market recorded a temporary bottom followed by a sustained price rebound.
Market participants remain alert to whether this setup will once again signal a reversal in the current cycle, as Ethereum continues to test critical technical levels.
Mini dictionary: MVRV Ratio, a metric that compares an asset’s market value to its realized value, showing if it is overvalued or undervalued from a historical cost perspective.
Price action and key resistance levelsEthereum has posted a gain of 1.18% in the past 24 hours, trading around $1,802. The weekly rise totals 1.78%. ETH has outperformed Bitcoin recently, challenging a longstanding pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
Ethereum broke above its daily 50-day moving average at $1,767 for the first time since the middle of May. This momentum follows a recovery from its July 8 low at $1,710 and has seen the token attempt to reach higher resistance levels.
On July 6, ETH climbed to $1,831 before encountering resistance, stalling just above the 50-day moving average. Bulls have yet to secure a sustained rise above this technical barrier, but analyst consensus suggests that maintaining momentum above the MA 50 could pave the way for a move toward $2,000, with the daily MA 200 placed at $2,214 as a longer-term objective.
Technical LevelCurrent Price/ValueStatusMA 50$1,767Recently surpassedJuly 8 Low$1,710SupportShort-term High$1,831ResistanceMA 200$2,214Potential targetThe derivatives market for crypto is stabilizing, with speculative trading abating in favor of positioning that favors longer-term investments. This trend further supports the outlook for Ethereum as traders weigh potential gains against recent corrections.
Electricity usage after The MergeThe Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) released new findings on Ethereum’s energy consumption. The report noted that, as a result of The Merge, Ethereum’s annual electricity consumption has dropped to approximately 7.87 GWh—a reduction exceeding 99.9% compared to pre-Merge levels.
Mini dictionary: Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF), a research institution at the University of Cambridge specializing in the study of global financial innovation and blockchain sector trends.
Ethereum, the leading smart contract platform developed by Vitalik Buterin and others, is the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and frequently leads innovation in decentralized applications and network upgrades.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The numbers were positive but offered no fireworks. On July 10, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $90.44 million in net new capital while their Ethereum counterparts added a modest $18.43 million, according to the original report citing SoSoValue data. The flows arrived during a stretch when crypto markets have drifted sideways, and institutional allocators appear to be favoring incremental exposure over bold positioning.
The subdued pace is less about disinterest and more about the regulatory fog hanging over Washington. With a landmark crypto bill facing last‑minute resistance from traditional banking interests, some fund managers are reluctant to increase digital asset weightings until the Senate votes. The fight over the biggest crypto bill in US history has turned into a wire‑to‑wire drama, and even a single large ETF order can be influenced by the perceived odds of tighter or looser rules.
Ethereum’s $18.43 million inflow, while small in absolute terms, is still a signal. It shows that accredited investors and fund managers are not pulling back from ETH exposure entirely, even as fee competition among ETF issuers intensifies. The network itself continues to attract builders: recent metrics on developer engagement highlight that Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Polygon dominate the rankings, with Solana and Arbitrum close behind. Ethereum’s developer ecosystem remains robust, which adds a layer of conviction for longer‑term ETF holders who track fundamentals rather than daily price action.
A snapshot, not a trend Single‑day flow data can be noisy. July 10’s Bitcoin ETF inflow was decent but well below the hundreds of millions that characterized earlier buying waves. That could be a mid‑summer lull, or it could be a reflection of positioning ahead of second‑quarter corporate earnings and central bank commentary. What’s clearer is that the ETF complex has matured: volume is no longer driven by a handful of early‑mover whales but by a broader distribution of institutional and quasi‑institutional participants. The steady drip of inflows contrasts with the boom‑and‑bust cycles that defined crypto’s previous ETF attempts in other jurisdictions.
Where institutional interest is deepening Separately, the institutional pipeline is not limited to ETFs. Tokenization of real‑world assets has crossed $20 billion on‑chain, and deals like Bullish’s $4.2 billion acquisition of Equiniti signal that large financial players are embedding blockchain into their core infrastructure. The tokenization of real-world assets is no longer a proof‑of‑concept; it is a parallel track of adoption that will eventually pull ETF demand along with it, especially as more familiar assets like Treasuries settle on‑chain.
What remains uncertain The direction of net flows over the next two weeks will depend heavily on whether the Senate passes the crypto bill and what the Fed signals about rate cuts. A rejection or a delay could push daily flows back toward breakeven or negative territory, simply because compliance desks will stay in neutral. The Ethereum ETF category is particularly sensitive: its lower baseline means that even a $20 million swing can look dramatic, but the structural story is about whether issuers can convince RIAs and pension consultants that ether is a distinct asset class rather than an appendage to bitcoin.
For now, the market is in a holding pattern. The inflows are real but restrained, and that is entirely consistent with an institutional crowd that wants more clarity before committing larger slices of a portfolio. The next couple of data points, set against the legislative calendar, will reveal whether this is a temporary pause or the new steady state.
AUTHOR
Kester is an experienced freelance content writer. His focus is primarily on blockchain technology and cryptocurrency. One might even refer to him as a "blockchain enthusiast." He has been following advancements in the crypto and blockchain area for several years, researching and writing his insights in the media. In addition to being a skilled content writer, Mushumir is also knowledgeable in SEO and digital marketing. He aspires to succeed as a content creator in the digital realm, dealing with customers in the finance and tech industries to generate traffic through engaging taglines and content. Mushumir enjoys traveling, reading, and playing cricket when he is not writing. He now works as a news and article writer for BlockchainReporter.
Unusual transactions at Tether’s Bitcoin reserve address have sparked speculation that the company may have paused its Bitcoin purchases or altered its accumulation pace for the second quarter of 2026.
According to on-chain data, approximately 4 BTC were sent to Binance about five hours ago from Tether’s reserve address, which is known to allocate 15% of its quarterly profits to Bitcoin purchases. The transfer, believed to be a test transaction, is estimated to be worth approximately $250,000.
Data shows that the same address also transferred 204.3 BTC to Bitfinex approximately a month ago. This transaction, which took place when the Bitcoin price was around $70,000, was worth approximately $14.36 million. However, there is no confirmed information yet on whether the transferred Bitcoins were sold.
Another development that caught the market’s attention was that Tether has not yet transferred the Bitcoins it is thought to have purchased in the second quarter of 2026 to its reserve address. In the past, the company usually transferred the BTC purchases it made during the quarter to its reserve address on the last day of that quarter.
However, more than ten days after the end of the second quarter, no new BTC transfers have been made to Tether’s reserve address. This has raised questions about whether the company has changed its Bitcoin accumulation strategy or postponed its second-quarter purchases.
*This is not investment advice.
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Key Takeaways Shares of American Bitcoin Corp have plummeted more than 95% from their all-time high, reaching record lows this week The collapse has wiped over $600 million from Eric Trump’s 6% ownership position A mandatory 1-for-15 reverse stock split was executed to maintain Nasdaq compliance Competing mining operations that transitioned to AI infrastructure have gained approximately 60% year-to-date, contrasting sharply with American Bitcoin’s 77% decline Despite recording a $118.2 million operating deficit in Q1, Eric Trump remains committed to accumulating Bitcoin The crypto mining venture co-launched by Eric Trump, American Bitcoin Corp, is experiencing a spectacular collapse. The company’s shares have nosedived over 95% from their zenith, obliterating more than $600 million in value from Eric Trump’s holdings over a ten-month period.
Eric Trump just lost the family $600 million on a disastrous Bitcoin bet
Eric Trump spent Thursday morning bragging about getting an airport named after his dad. Hours later, the world learned he had just vaporized more than $600 million of the family fortune.
According to a new… pic.twitter.com/M6DrQqLJLT
— James Tate (@JamesTate121) July 10, 2026
Shares bottomed out at an unprecedented low earlier this week, changing hands below $6 per share. This represents a dramatic fall from the stock’s peak of $139.65, achieved merely five trading sessions after its Nasdaq debut in September 2024.
American Bitcoin Corp, ABTC
To maintain its exchange listing, the company implemented a 1-for-15 reverse stock split this week.
Serving as chief strategy officer, Eric Trump controls approximately 6% of the enterprise. His brother, Donald Trump Jr., occupies an advisory role, though the extent of his equity interest remains undisclosed.
The Strategy Shift That Wasn’t The company’s formation tells an interesting story. Originally conceived as American Data Centers Inc., the venture received backing from the Trump siblings through their Dominari Holdings vehicle. At its February 2025 inception, Eric Trump characterized it as “crucial for the development of AI infrastructure in the United States.”
Merely thirty days later, management changed course dramatically. Through a transaction with Hut 8 Corp, the company acquired mining equipment in return for equity shares, subsequently completing a reverse merger with Gryphon Digital Mining and adopting the American Bitcoin Corp identity.
Abandoning the data center strategy would ultimately prove disastrous.
Competition Embraced AI While American Bitcoin Held Firm As Bitcoin valuations declined, competing miners executed rapid strategic adjustments. Riot Platforms, Cipher Digital, MARA Holdings, and TeraWulf each announced initiatives to incorporate AI data center capabilities. These companies have collectively appreciated over 60% on average year-to-date.
American Bitcoin pursued an opposite trajectory. The firm’s capital remains concentrated in mining infrastructure and digital currency reserves. Operational management has been outsourced to Hut 8 through an exclusive arrangement, which effectively allocates most AI data center opportunities to Hut 8 rather than American Bitcoin.
Hut 8, having aggressively pursued AI infrastructure development, has witnessed its stock price more than double during the current year.
First quarter results showed American Bitcoin recording a $118.2 million operating deficit, which included a $117.2 million impairment charge against its Bitcoin treasury.
Nonetheless, the company acquired an additional 500 Bitcoin on Monday, expanding its holdings beyond 8,000 BTC. According to Eric Trump, circumstances would need to become “beyond catastrophic” before liquidation would be contemplated.
Industry observers note the fundamental challenge. “The price of Bitcoin needs to be moving up for the business model to work,” explained Mark Palmer of Benchmark Co.
Separately, President Donald Trump disclosed at least $1.4 billion in cryptocurrency-related income during 2025 from his family’s various digital asset enterprises.
Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing its best month of July since 2022, but analysis warns that the result could be firmly bearish.
Key points:
Bitcoin is nearing double-digit gains for July, but market reactions draw comparisons to 2022.Bear-market patterns call for downside to resume next month before a Q4 bottom.$70,000 remains a target for the current bounce.Analyst sees BTC price "picking up" for rest of July before reversalData from CoinGlass shows that at 9.5%, BTC/USD is setting a four-year record for July gains.
Bitcoin’s last bear-market year, in 2022, saw price end July nearly 17% higher after significant 38% losses the month prior. What happened in August, however, showed that calls for bullish continuation at the time were premature. BTC/USD fell by around 14%, followed by a further 3% drop in September.
This time, market participants are thus predictably cautious over short-term price strength.
“$BTC Has been pretty much in line with its average July performance so far. But of course it is still early,” trader Daan Crypto Trades commented on the CoinGlass numbers in an X post on Saturday.
Daan Crypto Trades noted that even taking bull markets into account, Q3 is Bitcoin’s weakest quarter, with average gains of just 6%.
“This has to do a lot with slow markets, low liquidity and volumes during the Summer time,” he added.
Also concerned about seasonality is trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who notes that BTC price performance in 2026 is matching its previous bear markets closely.
“If history repeats, things are likely going to pick up for Bitcoin and its Summer relief rally in the second half of July,” he told X followers this week.
BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
As Cointelegraph reported, Rekt Capital sees August canceling out this month’s gains in preparation for a classic bear-market bottom later in the year.
$70,000 on the radar for July BTC price bounceOther market participants are meanwhile preparing targets for the rest of July, with $70,000 becoming popular.
“Interesting few days ahead,” Peter Anthony, creator of the House of Crypto YouTube channel, forecast while analyzing the daily chart.
Another trader eyed the area between $67,000 and $73,000 for a short entry, also predicting a “bullish July, then Bearish August until Q4.”
“Q4 is when the real volatility takes place for BTC (both directions),” Daan Crypto Trades concluded.
“Will this year be the same?”Earlier, Cointelegraph flagged multiple onchain indicators now flashing bear-market bottom signals for the first time in four years.
Overall demand, meanwhile, has shown only partial signs of recovery.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
PANews July 11 news, according to Cointelegraph, although Bitcoin (BTC) has posted a cumulative gain of nearly 10% in July so far, marking its best performance for the same period in nearly four years, multiple market analysts warn that the current trend closely resembles the bear market period of 2022, and the market may weaken again starting in August. Data shows that BTC/USD has gained about 9.5% this month so far. Looking back at 2022, Bitcoin rebounded nearly 17% in July, but then fell roughly 14% and 3% in August and September respectively, dashing the expectations at the time for a continued bull market.
Daan Crypto Trades said Bitcoin is currently broadly in line with its historical average July performance, but the third quarter has historically been one of the weakest quarters for Bitcoin, with an average gain of only about 6%. He believes that declining summer market liquidity and trading volume are key reasons for the sluggish third-quarter performance. Daan Crypto Trades further noted that real market volatility may arrive in the fourth quarter, when Bitcoin’s price could see more substantial two-way swings. Meanwhile, several on-chain indicators have recently flashed the first bear market bottom signal in four years, but overall market demand still shows only limited signs of recovery.
Rekt Capital also pointed out that Bitcoin’s price action in 2026 bears a high degree of similarity to previous bear market cycles. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may continue its summer rebound in the second half of July, but a new round of correction could follow.
As for short-term targets, multiple traders view $70,000 as a key zone for the current rebound. Some market participants expect Bitcoin’s price to top out in the $67,000 to $73,000 range, and assess that “July is relatively strong, August turns weak, until a bottom forms in the fourth quarter.”
The United States has issued a hard deadline to Iran: reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stop targeting ships, and drop the transit fee demands, or face consequences. The ultimatum, issued as of July 10, 2026, is the latest escalation in a crisis that has been building since February, when shipping traffic through the strait effectively ground to a halt amid renewed regional clashes.
For context on why this matters beyond Middle East geopolitics: roughly 20% of the world’s oil and a significant share of global LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
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What the ultimatum actually says The U.S. demand is specific. Iran must publicly confirm the strait is open, with no tolls and no attacks on commercial or military shipping.
This is not the first time this playbook has been run. The Trump administration issued 48-hour deadlines to Iran over Hormuz access during the March to April 2026 period, and the strait remained contested. A June ceasefire and a memorandum of understanding between the parties appeared to offer a path forward, but those agreements have since unraveled.
Iran has reportedly begun imposing transit fees on vessels attempting to pass through, with those fees priced at around $1 per barrel equivalent and up to $2 million per vessel. The payment method of choice: Bitcoin or stablecoins.
The crypto angle is not a sideshow Bitcoin has been trading around $64,000 amid the current geopolitical turmoil. The price reflects a tug-of-war between two competing forces: risk-off sentiment, and inflation expectations tied to oil price spikes feeding into consumer price data.
If Iran is demanding dollar-pegged stablecoins as an alternative to Bitcoin for transit fees, it is essentially using the shadow of the U.S. dollar while bypassing the formal dollar payment system.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
PANews July 11 news, Galaxy research head Alex Thorn stated that the “abandoned Bitcoin” case surrounding “Noah Doe’s” attempt to obtain ownership of Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin through legal proceedings has seen a major development. The Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) has formally applied to intervene as a defendant in the case and seeks to have the court dismiss the entire lawsuit. It is learned that a defendant under the pseudonym “John Doe 33” had previously appeared in court as an individual, denying the plaintiff’s attempt to link him to an address holding 5,000 BTC. Additionally, The Digital Chamber has also submitted an amicus brief opposing the legal theories advanced by the plaintiff.
Alex Thorn said that BPI, represented by the law firm White & Case, has not only applied to intervene in the case but has also submitted a proposed answer, 15 affirmative defenses, and plans to file a motion to dismiss.
BPI argues that it has standing to intervene because the organization self-custodies a portion of its Bitcoin reserves intended to be held indefinitely, and the plaintiff’s theory that “long-term inactivity constitutes abandonment” could precisely sweep similar assets into future litigation. It contends that merely discovering a public address is like obtaining someone’s bank account number and does not confer ownership of the assets therein; the wallet itself does not exist on-chain; and holding coins for more than five years should not be deemed “abandonment,” but rather the “HODL” strategy long practiced by the Bitcoin community.
Alex Thorn stated that if the legal logic of the “Noah Doe” case is ultimately upheld by the court, it could become a precedent to deprive long-term self-custody users of asset ownership in the future. Therefore, this litigation concerns not only assets related to Satoshi Nakamoto, but also the legal foundation of the entire Bitcoin self-custody ecosystem.
Previous news, a plaintiff under the pseudonym “Noah Doe” filed a lawsuit in a New York court, seeking ownership of 39,069 dormant Bitcoin wallets, including addresses attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto. These wallets are estimated to hold approximately 3.7 million BTC, worth around $290 billion. The plaintiff, through two Wyoming shell companies ABC Company and XYZ Company, submitted a 901-page complaint on May 1, claiming these Bitcoins qualify as “abandoned property” under New York’s lost property law.
JPMorgan Chase is testing an AI investment agent that can autonomously adjust stock and bond allocations.
JPMorgan Chase is testing AI agents that can autonomously adjust the proportion of stock and bond investments to dynamically rebalance portfolios based on changes in market conditions. Test results show that in a 20-year historical backtest, the best-performing AI model delivered an annualized return 0.7 percentage points higher than the traditional "60/40" stock-bond portfolio, while also boasting lower volatility. All 8 AI agents tested by JPMorgan achieved higher risk-adjusted returns. However, the bank noted that the results are still based on simulated tests and do not represent actual investment performance. JPMorgan also warned that large-scale adoption of AI could lead to convergence of trading strategies, increase crowded trades, and amplify market volatility under stressed conditions.
21 minutes ago
Yangtze Memory Technologies announced its IPO advisory team, comprising a total of 31 members from CITIC Securities and China Securities Co., Ltd.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) official website updated the first-phase progress report on Changjiang Storage’s IPO counseling work on July 10. A total of 31 personnel from two securities firms, CITIC Securities and China Securities Construction Investment, form the counseling team. The current counseling period runs from May 19 to June 30, 2026, with work carried out via multiple methods including on-site due diligence, centralized training sessions, and targeted issue communications. The next phase of counseling will focus on two areas: First, for issues identified during the process, coordinate timely discussions between intermediaries and the company, develop standardization plans, and urge the counseled entity to fully implement rectification requirements. The working group will also continue to push the company to improve its corporate governance and internal control systems, enhancing its standardized operation level. Second, urge the company to thoroughly understand laws, regulations and rules related to issuance, listing and standardized operation, and clarify its responsibilities and obligations in areas such as information disclosure and fulfillment of commitments. (Jinshi)
21 minutes ago
Analyst: Bitcoin may be entering the final stage of a bear market, projected to rise to $250,000 over the next two to three years.
Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts has stated that Bitcoin may be entering the late stages of its current bear market. While the bear market is not yet over, downward momentum has begun to weaken. The current BTC price is roughly 50% lower than its all-time high of $126,100 set in October 2025. Coutts described the current trend as a “typical bear market,” pointing out that Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen by around 50% compared to the previous cycle, suggesting this downturn may not be as severe as prior bear markets. However, he cautioned that all current trend indicators remain clearly bearish, and markets do not mechanically replicate historical cycles. He noted that longer-term momentum indicators are starting to show bullish divergence, signaling that negative momentum is decelerating—but this does not mean Bitcoin has technically exited the bear market. Beyond tightening global liquidity, deteriorating on-chain demand was a key factor driving Bitcoin’s earlier decline. On long-term price projections, Coutts is cautious about Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030; instead, he forecasts BTC will rise to $200,000–$250,000 over the next two to three years. He also warned that the Bitcoin community needs to address the potential threat of quantum computing more definitively by 2027, as major protocol upgrades could take approximately five years to complete.
21 minutes ago
The probability that Bitcoin will rise to $70,000 this year has climbed to 79%.
Prediction market platform Polymarket now puts the probability of Bitcoin rising to $70,000 this year at 79%, up from 54% as of June 26. Additionally, the odds of Bitcoin hitting $80,000 stand at 32%, while the probability of it reaching $90,000 is 19%.
21 minutes ago
An alleged insider address of LAB has transferred $9.15 million worth of tokens to Aster again.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), a suspected insider address of LAB has transferred 10.5 million LAB tokens to Aster again. Calculated at the $0.872 price at the time of transfer, the move is worth roughly $9.15 million. This marks the address’s second transfer of LAB in the same fashion in about 22 hours. Over the past 24 hours, the address has moved a total of LAB worth approximately $18.69 million to Aster. Earlier, after the address completed the transfer last night, LAB’s price once plummeted sharply.
21 minutes ago
US-listed ETFs' assets under management climbed to $15.6 trillion, notching a new all-time high.
The Kobeissi Letter noted that the assets under management (AUM) of U.S.-listed ETFs have climbed to a record $15.6 trillion, doubling over the past 30 months. Year-to-date, investors have allocated more than $1 trillion to U.S.-listed ETFs, nearly double the year-to-date record set in 2025. At the current pace, full-year inflows are on track to top $2 trillion for the first time, roughly 33% higher than last year’s all-time high. In June alone, U.S. ETFs pulled in around $193 billion in inflows, marking the second-highest monthly inflow on record. Demand has been concentrated in U.S. large-cap, semiconductor, AI, and South Korea-focused ETFs, with the U.S. ETF market’s growth accelerating.
Empery Digital becomes bitcoin seller (cdd20, Unsplash)Summary
Empery Digital (EMPD) yesterday announced the sale of 1,400 bitcoin for $62,200 each, generating $87.1 million in proceeds.The money will go towards funding an AI data center in the Midwest.The company still holds 1,514 bitcoin, but does not intend to purchase more and may sell additional coins as opportunities arise.Empery Digital (EMPD) on Friday announced the sale of 1,400 bitcoin for $62,200 each, generating $87.1 million in proceeds.
Earlier in July, the company said it would need $65 million to close its 25% ownership in a group acquiring a Midwest facility to be converted into an AI data center.
Empery was among the hastily formed SPAC deals during the 2025 digital asset treasury company frenzy. The results for the group haven't been pretty, with most seeing share prices collapse by 90% or more from the 2025 highs.
In what could be part of the bottoming process for bitcoin and crypto, a growing group of these companies has become sellers of the digital assets they acquired in 2025.
Empery continues to hold 1,514 bitcoin but said it has no plans to accumulate more and may sell additional BTC to fund other opportunities.
"Going forward, we plan to continue to allocate capital to similar hyperscaler-anchored opportunities," said co-CEO Ryan Lane.
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Digital Assets: Quarterly Review and Outlook Q2
Digital Assets: Quarterly Review and Outlook Q2
Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.
Jul 10, 2026
Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.
Why it matters:
Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.
The crypto market has entered one of its bullish quarters of the year. However, nearly 278 days have passed since Bitcoin reached its all-time high of around $126,000. Meanwhile, BitGo CEO Mike Belshe says, “The next crypto bull run will be slower and far less volatile than previous ones.”
Here’s when the actual Bull run will begin.
What’s Delaying The Next Bull Run?According to Mike Belshe, money is no longer flowing only into digital assets. Instead of chasing quick profits, more investors are putting money into real blockchain use cases that have long-term value.
One of the biggest examples is the stablecoin market, which has grown to a record $322 billion. Stablecoins are also processing nearly $76 billion in transactions every weekend, or around $38 billion a day.
This indicates that they are becoming part of everyday payments rather than just crypto trading.
Belshe says institutions are now focusing on building long-term financial infrastructure as
“ Citi projects that the number will hit $4T by 2030. Tokenization is following the same arc.”
Despite Bitcoin trading below its all-time high, Belshe said BitGo’s custody business is seeing record demand from registered investment advisers (RIAs) and institutional investors.
This shows that Bitcoin is slowly moving beyond speculation and becoming a long-term reserve asset, as institutional investors have quietly begun to accumulate it.
“Slower doesn’t mean weaker. It means bitcoin is graduating from a speculative vehicle to a reserve asset.”
When Will The Next Bull Market Begin?While Belshe expects a slower market cycle, crypto investor Mark Chadwick noted when the next bull run will begin.
He shared an old December 2023 post from an anonymous 4chan user who predicted Bitcoin would reach its next all-time high on October 6, 2025. And that prediction played out as Bitcoin eventually climbed to around $126,000.
That prediction was based on Bitcoin’s historical cycle timing:
2015 ATL → 2017 ATH: 1,064 days2017 ATH → 2018 ATL: 364 days2018 ATL → 2021 ATH: 1,064 days2021 ATH → 2022 ATL: 364 daysNow, after accurately playing out the last Ath has prediction, Chadwick now believes the same pattern could repeat
2022 ATL → 2025 ATH: 1,064 days2025 ATH → 2026 ATL: 364 days as (only 278 days have passed)Based on this cycle, he expects the bear market to continue through the rest of 2026, with Bitcoin finding a major bottom later that year.
He believes this would be followed by an accumulation phase before the next large crypto bull market begins in 2027.
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The Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) has filed to intervene as a defendant in the Satoshi lawsuit, in which the plaintiff is seeking legal ownership of the Bitcoin creator’s coins. The crypto group has outlined its arguments and is effectively seeking to dismiss the case for lack of merit.
Bitcoin Policy Institute Files To Intervene In Satoshi Lawsuit In an X post, the crypto group revealed that it has filed to intervene as a defendant in the New York lawsuit, alleging that self-custodied bitcoin held for more than five years can be claimed by anyone who simply downloads your public address under New York’s Lost and Found Property law. “Our intervention serves to protect BPI’s bitcoin, which we hold long-term like so many other bitcoin HODLers,” BPI added.
As CoinGape earlier reported, the Bitcoin lawsuit involves up to 3.8 million dormant BTC, including Satoshi’s coins. The BPI filing comes just days ahead of the July 14 hearing in the Satoshi lawsuit, which could grant the plaintiffs, Noah Doe and Wyoming-based companies ABC Company and XYZ Company, ownership of these coins.
BPI joins Digital Chamber and Ian Cohen, who have filed amicus briefs in the case challenging the plaintiffs’ legal theories. White & Case is notably representing BPI in the case.
BPI’s Arguments Are More Extensive Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, noted in an X post that BPI’s arguments in the Satoshi lawsuit go further than anyone. “BPI is moving to intervene as a full defendant with a proposed answer, 15 affirmative defenses, and a planned motion to dismiss,” he said.
Thorn further noted that BPI argues it has standing to bring the motion because it self-custodies a long-term reserve that it plans to hold indefinitely, which is essentially along the lines of the plaintiffs’ theory. As such, if the plaintiffs can lay claim to Satoshi’s coins, BPI’s coins could be next,
The Galaxy Digital executive added that BPI’s case makes it clear that not selling your coins for five years isn’t abandonment but rather holding. “This is the fight that matters. If Noah Doe’s theory works, it’s a template to strip title from every long-term self-custodian,” he noted.
For more information on crypto custody, please check our page on Custodial vs Non-Custodial Crypto Cards Explained
Bitcoin could be entering the latter stages of the bear market, with downside momentum beginning to slow down, according to Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts.
“I think we're getting through most of the bear market action. It's still not over, clearly. But you know, I think we're approaching at least the second half,” Coutts said during an interview on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets.
Coutts described Bitcoin’s current price action as a “typical garden-variety bear market,” with BTC trading around the $63,000 mark, roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100.
He noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has declined by about 50% compared with the previous market cycle, suggesting the current downturn may be less severe than previous bear markets.
Bitcoin is up 4.45% over the past 30 days. (CoinMarketCap)
However, Coutts warned that markets rarely follow historical patterns so neatly. “They just sort of do their own thing. And at the moment, all the trend indicators are obviously bearish,” Coutts said.
On the bright sides, Coutts said he is beginning to see early technical signs that selling pressure is easing.
“I'm starting to see a bullish divergence appear on the longer time frames on momentum. So that's just telling me that the acceleration, or should I say, the negative momentum is decelerating, but that doesn't mean that we're out of this bear market from a technical perspective at all,” Coutts said.
While many market participants blamed Bitcoin's fourth-quarter downturn on tightening global liquidity conditions, Coutts said that weakening onchain fundamentals also played a significant part.
“So onchain demand, which definitely drives price and is somewhat correlated to things like global liquidity and the business cycle, they started to deteriorate as well.” Jamie Coutts is skeptical of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030Coutts was cautious when asked whether he agreed with long range forecasts from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030.
“The models that I was working with did have about a million by 2032, 2033. It’s just a function of like how much money printing is gonna be required between now and then,” he said.
“I'm more comfortable with a forecast in the next sort of two to three years that Bitcoin should get to sort of $200,000 to 250,000,” he said. Outside of that timeframe, he added, it is “very hard to say."
“I think it's gonna be interesting what AI brings to the equation, as you know, we see more wallets spun up for agents, and what are they gonna essentially store their value in? Are they gonna make the same decisions as what humans have?” he said.
On longer term risks to Bitcoin’s valuation, Coutts said the community will need to take more decisive action by 2027 to address the potential threat posed by quantum computing.
“If there isn't really firm movement on this, this will become an increasingly talked-about issue for the network because as much as everything is under risk from quantum, Bitcoin is a decentralized network. It's going to take five years for it to actually implement a major protocol upgrade.” Coutts said Bitcoin developers who dismiss concerns over quantum computing’s potential threat to the network are on the “wrong side of this.”
Features: Bitcoin’s quantum dilemma — Bigger blocks or STARK proofs?
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.
JPMorgan Chase is testing an AI investment agent that can autonomously adjust stock and bond allocations.
JPMorgan Chase is testing AI agents that can autonomously adjust the proportion of stock and bond investments to dynamically rebalance portfolios based on changes in market conditions. Test results show that in a 20-year historical backtest, the best-performing AI model delivered an annualized return 0.7 percentage points higher than the traditional "60/40" stock-bond portfolio, while also boasting lower volatility. All 8 AI agents tested by JPMorgan achieved higher risk-adjusted returns. However, the bank noted that the results are still based on simulated tests and do not represent actual investment performance. JPMorgan also warned that large-scale adoption of AI could lead to convergence of trading strategies, increase crowded trades, and amplify market volatility under stressed conditions.
21 minutes ago
Yangtze Memory Technologies announced its IPO advisory team, comprising a total of 31 members from CITIC Securities and China Securities Co., Ltd.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) official website updated the first-phase progress report on Changjiang Storage’s IPO counseling work on July 10. A total of 31 personnel from two securities firms, CITIC Securities and China Securities Construction Investment, form the counseling team. The current counseling period runs from May 19 to June 30, 2026, with work carried out via multiple methods including on-site due diligence, centralized training sessions, and targeted issue communications. The next phase of counseling will focus on two areas: First, for issues identified during the process, coordinate timely discussions between intermediaries and the company, develop standardization plans, and urge the counseled entity to fully implement rectification requirements. The working group will also continue to push the company to improve its corporate governance and internal control systems, enhancing its standardized operation level. Second, urge the company to thoroughly understand laws, regulations and rules related to issuance, listing and standardized operation, and clarify its responsibilities and obligations in areas such as information disclosure and fulfillment of commitments. (Jinshi)
21 minutes ago
Analyst: Bitcoin may be entering the final stage of a bear market, projected to rise to $250,000 over the next two to three years.
Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts has stated that Bitcoin may be entering the late stages of its current bear market. While the bear market is not yet over, downward momentum has begun to weaken. The current BTC price is roughly 50% lower than its all-time high of $126,100 set in October 2025. Coutts described the current trend as a “typical bear market,” pointing out that Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen by around 50% compared to the previous cycle, suggesting this downturn may not be as severe as prior bear markets. However, he cautioned that all current trend indicators remain clearly bearish, and markets do not mechanically replicate historical cycles. He noted that longer-term momentum indicators are starting to show bullish divergence, signaling that negative momentum is decelerating—but this does not mean Bitcoin has technically exited the bear market. Beyond tightening global liquidity, deteriorating on-chain demand was a key factor driving Bitcoin’s earlier decline. On long-term price projections, Coutts is cautious about Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030; instead, he forecasts BTC will rise to $200,000–$250,000 over the next two to three years. He also warned that the Bitcoin community needs to address the potential threat of quantum computing more definitively by 2027, as major protocol upgrades could take approximately five years to complete.
21 minutes ago
An alleged insider address of LAB has transferred $9.15 million worth of tokens to Aster again.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), a suspected insider address of LAB has transferred 10.5 million LAB tokens to Aster again. Calculated at the $0.872 price at the time of transfer, the move is worth roughly $9.15 million. This marks the address’s second transfer of LAB in the same fashion in about 22 hours. Over the past 24 hours, the address has moved a total of LAB worth approximately $18.69 million to Aster. Earlier, after the address completed the transfer last night, LAB’s price once plummeted sharply.
21 minutes ago
US-listed ETFs' assets under management climbed to $15.6 trillion, notching a new all-time high.
The Kobeissi Letter noted that the assets under management (AUM) of U.S.-listed ETFs have climbed to a record $15.6 trillion, doubling over the past 30 months. Year-to-date, investors have allocated more than $1 trillion to U.S.-listed ETFs, nearly double the year-to-date record set in 2025. At the current pace, full-year inflows are on track to top $2 trillion for the first time, roughly 33% higher than last year’s all-time high. In June alone, U.S. ETFs pulled in around $193 billion in inflows, marking the second-highest monthly inflow on record. Demand has been concentrated in U.S. large-cap, semiconductor, AI, and South Korea-focused ETFs, with the U.S. ETF market’s growth accelerating.
21 minutes ago
Hyperliquid’s perpetual contracts open interest market share hits 9%, a new all-time high.
According to hypeflows data, Hyperliquid holds a 9% share of the global perpetual contract market (covering all centralized exchanges including Binance, Bybit, OKX) by open interest, marking the highest level since the platform’s inception. Per HTX market data, HYPE is currently priced at $66.69, down 2.83% over the past 24 hours.
JPMorgan Chase is testing an AI investment agent that can autonomously adjust stock and bond allocations.
JPMorgan Chase is testing AI agents that can autonomously adjust the proportion of stock and bond investments to dynamically rebalance portfolios based on changes in market conditions. Test results show that in a 20-year historical backtest, the best-performing AI model delivered an annualized return 0.7 percentage points higher than the traditional "60/40" stock-bond portfolio, while also boasting lower volatility. All 8 AI agents tested by JPMorgan achieved higher risk-adjusted returns. However, the bank noted that the results are still based on simulated tests and do not represent actual investment performance. JPMorgan also warned that large-scale adoption of AI could lead to convergence of trading strategies, increase crowded trades, and amplify market volatility under stressed conditions.
21 minutes ago
Yangtze Memory Technologies announced its IPO advisory team, comprising a total of 31 members from CITIC Securities and China Securities Co., Ltd.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) official website updated the first-phase progress report on Changjiang Storage’s IPO counseling work on July 10. A total of 31 personnel from two securities firms, CITIC Securities and China Securities Construction Investment, form the counseling team. The current counseling period runs from May 19 to June 30, 2026, with work carried out via multiple methods including on-site due diligence, centralized training sessions, and targeted issue communications. The next phase of counseling will focus on two areas: First, for issues identified during the process, coordinate timely discussions between intermediaries and the company, develop standardization plans, and urge the counseled entity to fully implement rectification requirements. The working group will also continue to push the company to improve its corporate governance and internal control systems, enhancing its standardized operation level. Second, urge the company to thoroughly understand laws, regulations and rules related to issuance, listing and standardized operation, and clarify its responsibilities and obligations in areas such as information disclosure and fulfillment of commitments. (Jinshi)
21 minutes ago
The probability that Bitcoin will rise to $70,000 this year has climbed to 79%.
Prediction market platform Polymarket now puts the probability of Bitcoin rising to $70,000 this year at 79%, up from 54% as of June 26. Additionally, the odds of Bitcoin hitting $80,000 stand at 32%, while the probability of it reaching $90,000 is 19%.
21 minutes ago
An alleged insider address of LAB has transferred $9.15 million worth of tokens to Aster again.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), a suspected insider address of LAB has transferred 10.5 million LAB tokens to Aster again. Calculated at the $0.872 price at the time of transfer, the move is worth roughly $9.15 million. This marks the address’s second transfer of LAB in the same fashion in about 22 hours. Over the past 24 hours, the address has moved a total of LAB worth approximately $18.69 million to Aster. Earlier, after the address completed the transfer last night, LAB’s price once plummeted sharply.
21 minutes ago
US-listed ETFs' assets under management climbed to $15.6 trillion, notching a new all-time high.
The Kobeissi Letter noted that the assets under management (AUM) of U.S.-listed ETFs have climbed to a record $15.6 trillion, doubling over the past 30 months. Year-to-date, investors have allocated more than $1 trillion to U.S.-listed ETFs, nearly double the year-to-date record set in 2025. At the current pace, full-year inflows are on track to top $2 trillion for the first time, roughly 33% higher than last year’s all-time high. In June alone, U.S. ETFs pulled in around $193 billion in inflows, marking the second-highest monthly inflow on record. Demand has been concentrated in U.S. large-cap, semiconductor, AI, and South Korea-focused ETFs, with the U.S. ETF market’s growth accelerating.
21 minutes ago
Hyperliquid’s perpetual contracts open interest market share hits 9%, a new all-time high.
According to hypeflows data, Hyperliquid holds a 9% share of the global perpetual contract market (covering all centralized exchanges including Binance, Bybit, OKX) by open interest, marking the highest level since the platform’s inception. Per HTX market data, HYPE is currently priced at $66.69, down 2.83% over the past 24 hours.
While buyers have successfully defended the $58K-$60K support region and established a series of higher lows on lower timeframes, Bitcoin is now approaching a confluence of technical resistance where bullish momentum will face its biggest test since the breakdown from the mid-$70K region.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which continue to trend lower and maintain the broader bearish structure. Nevertheless, the recent price action has become increasingly constructive.
Following the sharp sell-off toward the $58K support zone, Bitcoin formed a higher low while the RSI continued to recover and push higher. The momentum indicator has now climbed back above the midline, suggesting that bearish pressure has weakened considerably compared to the aggressive decline seen throughout June.
The price is currently approaching a key bearish order block between $65K and $66.5K. This region also represents the last significant lower-high structure before the most recent leg down, making it a critical area for market structure confirmation. A decisive daily close above this resistance zone could establish a change of character and open the door toward the larger resistance cluster around $72K-$74K.
However, failure to reclaim this area would preserve the broader downtrend and could trigger another rotation back toward the $60K-$61K support zone. Therefore, the reaction around the current resistance region will likely determine whether the recent rally evolves into a trend reversal or remains a corrective bounce.
BTCUSD July 11. Source: TradingView BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart The 4-hour chart shows a much stronger recovery structure. Since sweeping liquidity beneath the $58K support region, BTC has printed a sequence of higher lows and higher highs while advancing toward the upper boundary of the descending channel that has contained the price since mid-June.
The market is now pressing directly against the channel resistance near $64K-$65K while simultaneously testing the lower boundary of the broader supply zone between $65K and $66K. This creates a pivotal technical area where buyers must prove they can maintain momentum.
A breakout above the descending trendline and subsequent reclaim of the bearish order block would provide the first meaningful confirmation that the corrective structure has ended. Such a move would likely trigger a change of character and increase the probability of a continuation rally toward the $72K-$74K resistance zone.
On the downside, the former intra-range liquidity zone around $61K-$62K has now transitioned into an important support area. As long as Bitcoin remains above this region, the short-term bullish structure remains intact.
Sentiment Analysis The one-week liquidation heatmap continues to show a substantial concentration of liquidity above the current market price, particularly within the $65K-$67K region. This aligns almost perfectly with the bearish order block and channel resistance highlighted on the technical charts, creating a strong confluence area that could attract price in the near term.
Notably, the liquidity data confirms the technical setup. The resistance zone identified on the charts corresponds directly with one of the largest visible liquidation clusters on the heatmap, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin may attempt to sweep this overhead liquidity before establishing its next directional trend.
Below the market, liquidity remains comparatively thinner near current levels, while larger concentrations are positioned much higher around the mid-$60K area. This suggests that the path of least resistance may remain upward in the short term as market makers seek to target those leveraged positions.
If Bitcoin successfully sweeps the $65K-$67K liquidity cluster and secures acceptance above the bearish order block, the probability of a broader bullish continuation would increase significantly. Conversely, if the liquidity sweep is followed by a sharp rejection, it could signal that the move was primarily liquidity-driven and increase the risk of another corrective decline toward the $61K support area.
For now, both the technical structure and liquidation positioning continue to favor an upside liquidity grab, with the $65K-$67K region emerging as the most important near-term battleground for Bitcoin.
Quick Summary Bitcoin receives the largest allocation at 40% thanks to institutional adoption and proven market stability Ethereum captures 25% of the portfolio for its dominance in decentralized finance and smart contracts Solana claims 15% based on superior transaction throughput and expanding ecosystem Chainlink secures 10% for providing critical oracle services across blockchain networks Near Protocol takes 5% offering exposure to AI integration and Layer 1 innovation A cryptocurrency expert has detailed a strategic approach for distributing $1,000 across five digital assets plus a stablecoin buffer, designed to optimize both security and upside potential in today’s market environment.
Core Holdings: Bitcoin and Ethereum Anchor the Strategy [[LINK_START_1]]Bitcoin[[LINK_END_1]] commands the dominant position with a 40% allocation, representing $400 of the total investment. As the cryptocurrency sector’s flagship asset by market capitalization, it benefits from continuous institutional capital inflows via spot exchange-traded funds and corporate balance sheet acquisitions. Its established history and deep liquidity position it as the portfolio’s most reliable component.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price [[LINK_START_3]]Ethereum[[LINK_END_3]] claims the second-largest position at 25%, equating to $250. As the fundamental infrastructure supporting decentralized finance and the primary platform for asset tokenization, it remains the preferred choice for financial institutions experimenting with distributed ledger technology.
Combined, these two market leaders comprise 65% of the entire allocation. This substantial weighting acknowledges their relatively reduced volatility when measured against smaller market cap alternatives.
Solana captures 15% of the portfolio at $150. The network challenges Ethereum through superior processing speed and minimal transaction costs while establishing significant traction in decentralized finance, payment systems, and user-facing applications. Though it introduces elevated risk, it simultaneously offers greater appreciation potential should mainstream adoption accelerate.
Chainlink occupies 10% of the allocation at $100. Its decentralized oracle infrastructure serves as the critical bridge connecting blockchain networks with external data sources, proving indispensable for smart contract functionality and enterprise blockchain implementations. As the tokenization of tangible assets gains momentum, dependency on this data infrastructure layer may intensify.
Near Protocol completes the active holdings at 5%, representing $50. The project emphasizes artificial intelligence infrastructure alongside its Layer 1 blockchain capabilities. While it represents the portfolio’s most speculative and smallest position, it provides valuable exposure to the convergence of AI and cryptocurrency sectors.
Strategic Stablecoin Buffer Explained The remaining 5%, totaling $50, stays allocated in stablecoins. This isn’t merely a defensive position—it equips investors with immediate purchasing power during market corrections without requiring the liquidation of current holdings.
Cryptocurrency valuations can experience dramatic swings within compressed timeframes. Maintaining a modest cash-equivalent reserve delivers tactical flexibility when valuations decline.
Rationale Behind Multi-Asset Diversification No individual cryptocurrency can be certain to deliver superior returns. Distributing capital across five distinct assets with varying utilities and risk profiles helps contain potential losses if any single position underperforms.
[[LINK_START_4]]Bitcoin[[LINK_END_4]] and Ethereum establish the portfolio’s stable foundation. [[LINK_START_5]]Solana[[LINK_END_5]], Chainlink, and Near Protocol introduce enhanced appreciation opportunities accompanied by proportionally increased risk.
The allocation strategy mirrors present market dynamics. Institutional participation continues expanding, artificial intelligence is intersecting with blockchain technology, and infrastructure protocols are becoming increasingly fundamental to network operations.
This approach doesn’t pursue rapid speculation. Instead, it presents a methodical entry framework for investors with $1,000 seeking diversified cryptocurrency exposure while avoiding concentration in any single digital asset.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Morgan Stanley has increased its Bitcoin holdings by nearly 1,000 BTC over the past two weeks, lifting its tracked balance above 5,700 BTC, according to on-chain data.
Summary
Morgan Stanley added nearly 1,000 BTC over the past two weeks, pushing its tracked holdings to 5,761 BTC. Arkham data shows the accumulation came through multiple large transfers from Coinbase Prime rather than a single purchase. The latest buying follows Morgan Stanley’s June crypto expansion with Galaxy Digital, allowing eligible clients to convert crypto into spot investment products. According to blockchain intelligence platform Arkham, the investment bank continued adding Bitcoin through its spot Bitcoin investment product during the recent market pullback. Arkham’s latest portfolio data shows Morgan Stanley now holds 5,761 BTC worth roughly $369.9 million, making it one of the larger institutional Bitcoin holders tracked on the platform.
Source: Arkham The latest increase follows a series of transfers recorded over the past two weeks instead of a single purchase. Arkham’s transaction history shows several large inflows from Coinbase Prime wallets, including transfers of 495.8 BTC, 171.9 BTC, 166.2 BTC, 154.8 BTC, 143.3 BTC, 126.1 BTC, 120.4 BTC, and another 34.4 BTC within the last 14 hours. The activity also includes minor operational transfers and a 1 BTC movement back to Coinbase Prime, leaving the firm’s net increase at roughly 1,000 BTC.
Source: Arkham Latest purchases have come through multiple large transfers Recent Arkham data indicates Morgan Stanley accumulated Bitcoin in stages rather than executing a single large transaction. Most of the recorded inflows originated from Coinbase Prime custody and deposit addresses, suggesting institutional settlement activity linked to its Bitcoin investment product.
At current market prices shown on Arkham, the firm’s Bitcoin holdings are valued at nearly $370 million. Arkham also classifies the entity as a fund, an exchange-traded product, and a Bitcoin whale, while linking the portfolio to 11 tracked wallet addresses.
The latest buying extends a pattern of adding exposure during price weakness. Although Arkham describes the activity as another instance of Morgan Stanley “buying the dip,” the platform does not disclose whether the transactions represent direct purchases, client subscriptions, or other operational inflows into the investment vehicle.
Crypto investment services have expanded for wealthy clients The recent accumulation follows Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s June announcement that it had expanded its digital asset offering through a referral arrangement with Galaxy Digital.
Under the program, eligible high-net-worth clients can lend cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana to Galaxy Digital and receive shares in spot crypto investment products, including the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust. According to the companies, the structure allows investors to move crypto exposure into regulated investment vehicles without first selling their digital assets.
Morgan Stanley and Galaxy Digital also said the arrangement can reduce in-kind crypto-to-exchange-traded product onboarding times by as much as 75%, making transfers into regulated investment products faster than conventional processes.
The expanded client offering and the latest on-chain accumulation come as institutional participation in spot Bitcoin investment products continues to grow. While Arkham’s wallet data tracks assets associated with Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin product, the platform does not identify the underlying investors or distinguish between firm-owned holdings and assets managed on behalf of clients.
TLDR: Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $90.44 million on July 10, with BlackRock’s IBIT supplying nearly all the fresh capital entering U.S. spot funds. Spot Ethereum ETFs added $18.43 million during the same session, showing that regulated crypto demand extended beyond Bitcoin alone. Bitcoin traded above $64,000 and approached the key $65,000 resistance area as softer oil prices and a weaker dollar supported risk assets. Short-term holders remain underwater near higher cost bases, leaving the $71,000 to $77,500 region exposed to renewed selling pressure. U.S. spot funds attracted fresh capital as Bitcoin returned above $64,000. Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $90.44 million on July 10, Eastern Time, according to SoSoValue data. Spot Ethereum products added another $18.43 million during the same session.
The move marks another positive flow day after June delivered roughly $4 billion in Bitcoin ETF withdrawals. Bitcoin traded near $64,149, while Ethereum changed hands around $1,798.
Both assets gained support from softer oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar. Still, Bitcoin faces firm resistance near $65,000 as traders assess whether institutional demand can extend the rebound.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Rise as BlackRock Controls the Session BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust generated $86.83 million of the daily total. VanEck’s HODL fund added $3.61 million, bringing combined Bitcoin ETF inflows to $90.44 million. IBIT has now attracted about $60.29 billion since launch, while HODL’s cumulative inflows stand near $1.14 billion.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $90.44 Million in Net Inflows; Ethereum ETFs Add $18.43 Million
According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $90.44 million on July 10, Eastern Time, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded total net inflows of… pic.twitter.com/sAEX5gmh1b
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 11, 2026
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market holds about $77.42 billion in total net assets. That equals roughly 6.05% of Bitcoin’s market value. Cumulative net inflows across the products have reached approximately $51.28 billion since trading began in January 2024.
The latest reading follows a difficult June for regulated Bitcoin funds. Investors withdrew around $4 billion during the month, setting the weakest monthly result since the products launched. A 10-day outflow run also removed about $2.73 billion before positive flows returned in early July.
Bitcoin ETF inflows now show selective demand rather than a broad rush into every product. The July 10 total came almost entirely from IBIT, with VanEck supplying the balance. This concentration shows that large investors still favor liquid funds with deep trading activity and competitive fees.
Ethereum ETF inflows were smaller but moved in the same direction. The $18.43 million daily addition represented about 10,550 ETH at prevailing prices. BlackRock’s ETHA attracted $16.20 million, while Fidelity’s FETH added $2.23 million.
ETF Demand Returns While Bitcoin Tests the $65K Barrier Bitcoin climbed above $64,000 and approached a three-week high as the dollar weakened. Lower crude prices also eased immediate inflation concerns, giving risk assets more room to recover. However, the rebound still needs stronger spot demand to support a sustained break above $65,000.
Short-term holder data presents another challenge. Buyers holding Bitcoin for one to six months remain about 15% underwater on average. The newest buyers hold a realized price near $61,600. The three-to-six-month group sits near $74,900.
Source: Cryptoquant That gap may create selling pressure during a stronger advance. Holders who bought near $70,000 could use a recovery to reduce losses. A break above $71,000 would improve the structure. The $73,200 to $77,500 area could attract heavier supply.
Bitcoin ETF inflows offer a stronger demand signal than leveraged futures activity. Yet negative apparent demand and a weak Coinbase premium still point to caution among U.S. spot buyers. Rising leverage could also expose the market to sharp liquidations if Bitcoin loses momentum below $64,000.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. says short-term holder buying pressure has recently exceeded selling pressure. Buying scores ranged from 37% to 46% during June and July, while selling pressure stayed near 16%. Those conditions support a possible bounce, although older holders remain positioned to sell into higher prices.
Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin treasury firm Empery Digital has sold a total of 1,400 BTC since May 7, at an average price of roughly $62,200, netting approximately $87.1 million in proceeds, cutting its Bitcoin reserve by nearly half. According to announcements, $10 million of the proceeds was used to repay debt on July 7, while the remaining funds will be allocated to previously announced real estate acquisitions for an AI data center, legal fees related to shareholder litigation, and daily operational expenses. The company had earlier announced it would invest $65 million to acquire a 25% stake in an entity developing an AI data center project in the U.S. Midwest. As of July 10, Empery Digital still holds 1,514 BTC, worth around $96.5 million at current prices, plus approximately $73.9 million in cash, with an outstanding debt balance of $45 million. Reports note that an increasing number of public companies holding Bitcoin reserves are starting to use BTC as a liquidity source rather than solely as a long-term holding asset, selling part of their reserves to meet traditional financing needs such as debt repayment, capital expenditures, and corporate operations.
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Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Halving cycle data challenges moonshot predictions. (Getty Images)Summary
Bitcoin’s historic four-year halving cycles are still producing new highs, but each bull market peak has delivered smaller multiples than the last.Forecasts calling for bitcoin to reach $300,000 to $500,000 by the next cycle peak in 2029 may be overly optimistic given the shrinking peak-to-peak returns and the asset’s growing size.As institutional participation, ETFs, and sophisticated derivatives deepen the market, bitcoin is becoming larger, more liquid and less volatile, suggesting the era of parabolic “moonshot” rallies may be over.Crypto analysts are already looking at how high bitcoin BTC$64,144.74 could rally in the next cycle, expected to begin later this year, with ambitious targets ranging from $300,000 to $500,000.
But one important data point runs counter to those forecasts, suggesting that gains may be more measured than ever.
Unlike gold or stocks, bitcoin tends to move in clear four-year cycles centered on the mining reward halving, an event that halves the amount of new bitcoin produced per block every 4 years. Think of it as a programmed 50% reduction in the growth rate of the money supply.
The first halving happened in 2012, and the fifth one is scheduled for April 2028. In the past, prices have tended to bottom out and begin a new bull run roughly 18 months before the halving. That same bull run then peaks about 16-18 months after the halving, paving the way for a year-long bear market. That's the four-year cycle, and the peak of the next one is expected in 2029.
On the back of this, analysts and market experts have been calling for a massive bull run in the next few years.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt anticipates a peak between $300,000 and $500,000. Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra expect prices to hit $500,000 by 2029, citing booming demand for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Reality checkHowever, while the four-year cycles have consistently produced new all-time highs, each successive one has seen markedly lower multiples, compressed gains, and slower overall expansion.
As bitcoin grows, matures, and becomes more valuable, it takes significantly more capital to push it meaningfully higher. The track record of cycle highs proves it:
2013: $2662017: nearly ~$20,000 (75x from previous high)2021: ~$69,000 (3.5x from 2017)2025: $126,000 (just 1.8x from 2021)What this means is that bull runs are getting steadier, with more measured gains rather than moonshots. If this trend continues, the next peak may fall well short of the anticipated $300,000 to $500,000 levels. (A rally to $300,000 or more requires over 2 times the jump from the 2025 high)
This is not necessarily bad news, however.
As noted earlier, the bigger the asset becomes, the more capital is required to move it higher. And with the institutionalization of the market and an ever-increasing array of advanced risk management products, such as bitcoin ETFs, futures, options, volatility products, arbitrage funds, and structured products with embedded options, BTC is naturally becoming less volatile and more Wall Street-like.
Bulls might argue that a potential full-blown Fed stimulus and outright purchases of BTC as a reserve asset by the U.S. Treasury may do the trick.
However, even massive fiscal and monetary stimulus after the 2020 COVID crash – not just in the U.S. but worldwide – could only lift BTC to nearly $70,000 in that cycle, 3.5x from 2017, marking a slowdown from the previous cycle. The 2025 high, which came with ETF flows and the most institutionalization ever, could only muster 1.8 times the level.
All this suggests that bitcoin is maturing and growing, not breaking. The days of peak-to-peak moonshots may be gone for good. The asset is now large, liquid, and institutionalized, and investors chasing the next parabolic supercycle might want to recalibrate.
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Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.
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Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.
Why it matters:
Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.
Trading competitions have long been the blunt instrument of exchange marketing, but Bybit’s latest move feels less like a seasonal promotion and more like a direct play for spot market share at a time when organic retail flows remain uneven. The exchange, ranked second globally by trading volume, has rolled out a Spot Trading Arena with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT, inviting users to compete by trading a curated list of cryptocurrencies.
The competition spans Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, alongside a handful of other assets that Bybit has not fully disclosed. The structure appears designed to draw in both veteran traders and new entrants, dangling rewards that are measured in volume tiers and leaderboard rankings. In an environment where many centralized venues are battling to recapture spot volumes after a prolonged lull, a six-figure prize pool can act as a short-term magnet for speculative capital.
Exchange Competition Intensifies Bybit launching a dedicated trading arena is a reflection of how aggressively exchanges are now competing for the same cohort of active traders. Binance, OKX, and other major platforms routinely run trading tournaments, but coupling a competition with a formal “arena” branding hints at something more sustained. The exchange’s position as second-largest by volume adds weight; any movement to capture additional spot liquidity can ripple across order books.
These kinds of incentives often surface during periods of subdued natural trading activity. When narratives are thin and price action is sideways, prize pools become a psychological lever to push users off the sidelines. Even as U.S. banks lobby against landmark crypto legislation, as recent political maneuvering has shown, offshore exchanges like Bybit are pressing forward with user acquisition strategies that don’t hinge on Washington’s timeline. The Arena is, in part, a bet that retail attention can be bought and then retained.
The Token Line-Up: From Blue Chips to DeFi Tokens The inclusion of Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is the unexpected highlight of the roster. Hyperliquid is a decentralized perpetuals exchange that has cultivated a loyal trader base, making its token a competitor’s asset on a centralized venue an interesting cross-platform signal. Bybit appears willing to embrace tokens born in the DeFi perp ecosystem, possibly to draw users who might otherwise stick to decentralized interfaces. Including major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum is standard, but Solana’s presence aligns with its continued developer momentum. Solana and Ethereum consistently rank among the top blockchains by developer activity, which makes them natural reference points for spot trading competitions.
The broader altcoin market has seen pockets of speculative energy recently, with tokens like SUI posting sharp gains and drawing heavy volume. SUI surged 18% in a single session on the back of institutional staking and a fintech integration, underscoring how quickly retail flows can concentrate when a narrative catches fire. Including HYPE and other relatively new tokens could similarly concentrate trading volume on the Arena, though it remains unclear whether that volume will stick around once the prizes are distributed.
What is certain is that trading competitions rarely solve the underlying challenge of organic liquidity building. They spike volumes temporarily, often leaving behind a residue of dormant accounts and whale-driven wash trading if poorly designed. Bybit’s challenge will be converting contest participants into regular users without relying on perpetual giveaways. For now, the Arena is a well-timed reminder that exchange marketing remains a cash-intensive front in the battle for global crypto traders.
AUTHOR
Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.
Eric Trump’s stake in Bitcoin mining and treasury firm American Bitcoin Corp. has been devalued by about $600 million, according to a Bloomberg report.
He owns about 6% of the firm and doubles as American Bitcoin’s Chief Strategy Officer. His brother, Donald Trump Jr., also owns an undisclosed stake in the firm.
Amid the broader crypto downturn, the firm’s stock, ABTC, has plunged by 97%, crashing from September 2025’s peak of $217 to a record low of $5.98. This week alone, it dumped by over 29%.
Source: ABTC, TradingView The massive stock dump forced the firm to launch a 1-for-5 reverse stock split on 2nd of July to remain listed on the Nasdaq.
A company’s stock must maintain a minimum bid price of $1 to remain listed on the exchange. In fact, Nakamoto, another Bitcoin treasury firm, was forced to opt for a stock split to avoid a similar delisting.
American Bitcoin Corp. scales holdings to 8,000 BTC Despite the ongoing stock dump, however, the firm increased its BTC stash to 8,000 coins from 7,500 coins.
Commenting on the same, Eric Trump downplayed the stock sell-off as just ‘crypto market volatility.’ In fact, he simply reiterated the commitment to ‘stacking’ more BTC at a discount.
Even with crypto market volatility, I want to reiterate how we continue to differentiate ourselves, mining at a 52% profit margin in Q1 and continually adding to our treasury, all while maintaining one of the lowest SG&A ratios in the industry. The stacking continues.
Source: Bitcoin Treasuries Separately, the broader Bitcoin treasury demand for the crypto asset has eased significantly after its largest buyer, Strategy, became a seller. Strategy recently sold $216M worth of BTC.
In the last 30 days of trading, the demand from corporate treasuries has been negligible at 0.3%. In fact, after Strategy’s sale, the overall stash held by public companies dropped from 1.267M to 1.265M BTC.
Source: Bitcoin Treasuries The market faded the recent Strategy’s sale. However, whether it will help form a ‘durable market bottom’ for BTC and shore broader treasury demand remains to be seen.
Final Summary American Bitcoin Corp. stock dropped to a record low of $5.9 despite a recent reverse stock split. It has dropped by 97% from its last year peak of $217, erasing over $600M of Eric Trump’s stake in the firm.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
