Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Bitcoin treasury firms Strategy and Metaplanet face potential removal from the MSCI’s Global Investable Market Indexes. This follows the index provider’s adoption of a new methodology which would make non-operating companies eligible for inclusion in its global index.

MSCI Could Soon Axe Strategy, Metaplanet Over New Rules
In an announcement, the firm said that it will adopt the proposal to exclude non-operating companies from its global index, potentially putting Strategy and Metaplanet at risk of removal. This follows a consultation period in which it sought to expand the definition of non-operating companies.

As CoinGape earlier reported, the MSCI launched the consultation in August,  classifying corporate issuers that have similar characteristics to various investment funds and Business

Development Companies (BDCs) as non-operating companies. It sought to determine, through two screens, which corporate issuers would fall under this lens.

The initial screen was to determine whether the corporate issuer is a company with substantial operating costs. Issuers that fail this screen then undergo the exclusion screen based on five non-industry-specific financial ratios. These ratios are operating asset intensity, expense intensity, cash flow screen, fair value intensity, and capital dependence. Getting flagged on at least four out of five of these ratios leads to exclusion.

Final Decision To Come On November 11
MSCI also said it will release the final list of companies facing exclusion on November 11. The index provider said that it will remove constituents that fail the ineligibility screen in te two of their most recent annual filings.

The firm also pointed to a list of companies that could be impacted by this methodology, with Strategy and Metaplanet facing removal in this simulation. Meanwhile, crypto treasury firms such as Bitmine, Upexi, Cypherpunk Technologies, and DeFi Development are on the watchlist.

Following the November 2026 Index Review announcement, MSCI noted that the new methodology will replace the interim measures it had put in place for digital asset treasury companies. The Strategy stock is down over 1% in overnight trading, trading at $149, according to TradingView data.

Source: TradingView
To trade the stock, check out Best Platforms to Trade Tokenized Stocks

Whale Hamr4x Dumps 145,010 $SOL ($15.25M) After 2 Months

After 2 months, whale Hamr4x dumped another 145,010 $SOL ($15.25M).

20 minutes ago

Google lowers Gemini 4 Argon's Pro subscription price to $20.

Beating AI News Flash: Google has started rolling out Gemini 4 Argon to paid Google AI Pro users. Previously, while Argon had been integrated into the Gemini app, it was only accessible to higher-tier Ultra subscribers within the AI programming tool Antigravity. Now, Pro users can access this flagship model via the Antigravity desktop app and CLI to handle complex programming, debugging, and multi-step development tasks. Google has also set a separate weekly usage quota for Argon for Pro users, which does not take up the existing Gemini 3.8 Flash quota; the two models can be used independently. However, Argon still does not support Antigravity’s built-in IDE, and can only be accessed through the desktop app, CLI, or third-party IDE extensions. Additionally, this access is limited to formal paid Pro subscriptions, with trial subscriptions excluded.

20 minutes ago

AMC CEO issues fresh warning: Opposes Robinhood’s launch of AMC stock tokens in the US, saying it could impact the company’s capital structure.

AMC CEO Adam Aron once again voiced opposition on X to Robinhood’s plan to issue stock tokens, stating AMC does not consent to Robinhood launching tokens replicating AMC’s shares in the U.S. Aron labeled these tokens “fake synthetic stocks,” warning they could impact AMC’s capital structure. He added that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires Robinhood to secure AMC’s approval or at minimum confirm AMC has no objections, stressing AMC should control its own financial destiny rather than letting Robinhood call the shots.

20 minutes ago

A whale opened max leveraged long positions on Bitcoin and Ethereum 4 hours ago, with positions worth $187 million.

According to Yu Jing Monitoring, a whale address (0x30afce2f6842bf183c7e3fe7162e279ff0b6393e) opened a maximum-leverage long position worth $187 million four hours ago. The position includes 1,822 BTC (valued at $150 million) with an entry price of $82,409 and a liquidation price of $80,634, plus 15,270 ETH (valued at $37.33 million) with an entry price of $2,455 and a liquidation price of $2,406. The whale’s most profitable previous trade netted $14.8 million: it opened a long position in NEAR at $2.14 in late August and took profits at $4.88 in late September.

20 minutes ago

Despite elevated inflation and mounting interest rate hike expectations, U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies rebound; Jensen Huang steps in to stem losses, while the chip index notches its seventh consecutive decline.

Overnight, U.S. September Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 6.3% year-on-year, marking its highest level in over four years. The data has once again reinforced interest rate hike expectations, triggering temporary declines in U.S. stocks and crypto assets. However, markets quickly digested the negative news, with risk assets bouncing back sharply after the sell-off. In the end, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher across the board: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.08%, the Nasdaq gained 0.08%, and the S&P 500 added 0.33%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.88%, with its decline narrowing significantly from the opening, marking its seventh consecutive trading day of losses.
In terms of individual stocks, according to market data from BIT (bit.com), CoreWeave—heavily impacted by default rumors—reversed an intraday drop of over 8% to close up 5.94%. On the news front, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated that CoreWeave’s strength is improving daily, its financing costs are actually declining, and he does not believe the data center operator needs NVIDIA’s rescue. NVIDIA fell 1.84%, while Intel dropped 2.80%. Storage stocks also saw their declines narrow but failed to turn positive, with SNDK closing down 0.61%. Separately, per HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $80,000 threshold overnight before bouncing back quickly, and is currently trading at $82,285.10.

20 minutes ago

Trump: Will Not Use Nuclear Bombs to Strike Iran

Trump stated that he will not use nuclear weapons to strike Iran, nor does he plan to deploy ground troops to Iran.

20 minutes ago

October 15 brought announcements spanning crypto market such as XRP Ledger payments, Bitcoin mining, Ethereum staking and institutional trading. Today’s roundup covers eight updates announced on the day, including developments involving BTC, ETH, SOL and Ripple’s ecosystem.

Cross River Gives Fintech Clients an RLUSD Payment Option
Cross River’s fintech customers can now use RLUSD for international transfers and settlement at any hour, alongside conventional banking services. Announced on October 15, the arrangement with Ripple brings these payment options together through one API, with stablecoin transactions processed over the XRP Ledger. Access remains limited to selected U.S. states.

Ripple Prime Adds Institutional Trading Across More Than 100 Markets
Ripple announced that institutional clients can now trade real-world asset perpetual swaps through Ripple Prime, covering more than 100 reference markets across stocks, indices, ETFs, commodities and currencies. The swaps reference Trade.xyz perpetual futures on Hyperliquid and support trading and settlement throughout the week, including weekends. Clients can also use RLUSD as collateral, subject to availability in their jurisdiction.

BitFuFu Launches Tokenized Bitcoin Mining Product
BitFuFu and Finloop announced HASH, a tokenized note giving eligible investors exposure to the financial output of Bitcoin mining. Returns are denominated in BTC, allowing investors to participate without operating mining equipment themselves. Finloop supplies the tokenization infrastructure, while profit distributions are recorded on-chain.

Lido Adds Direct ETH Staking From Four Layer 2 Networks
Lido announced that its staking interface now supports ETH held on Arbitrum, Base, Linea and Optimism. The feature uses Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol to handle transfers behind the scenes, removing the need for users to bridge funds manually to Ethereum and back. Users receive wrapped staked ETH, or wstETH, on their starting network.

KR1 Targets 6,000 ETH Through Its Own Staking Setup
P2P.org will handle KR1’s validator operations, while the London-listed company keeps authority over deposits and withdrawals. The October 15 rollout places an initial 10 validators in a separate Lido stVault, with plans to stake as much as 6,000 ETH in the near term as Ethereum’s entry queue permits. KR1 can also obtain liquidity by minting stETH against the ETH committed to its vault.

Solana Treasury Firm Raises CHAD’s Planned Dividend Rate to 14%
DeFi Development Corp. announced that the annual dividend rate on its CHAD preferred stock will increase from 13% to 14%. Based on the security’s $10 stated amount, annual dividends would rise from $1.30 to $1.40 per share, with business-day payments subject to board declarations. The company said proceeds from future CHAD issuance would support expansion of its SOL treasury.

Starknet Opens Vote on Exploring an Independent Blockchain
Starknet opened a seven day, non-binding poll asking STRK holders whether research should proceed into becoming an independent, quantum-resistant Layer 1 blockchain. A positive result would trigger further research and proposals rather than authorize an immediate departure from Ethereum. The proposal states that STRK would remain the network’s token and that bridges with Ethereum would stay open.

Australia’s ASIC Proposes Standards for Digital Asset Platforms
Australia’s securities regulator released a consultation on implementing the country’s digital asset framework. Its proposals cover asset custody, transaction and settlement standards, and financial requirements for digital asset and tokenized custody platforms. Feedback is due by November 27, 2026, and the proposed standards remain subject to revision.

21h05 ▪
13
min read ▪ by
Ghiles A.

Summarize this article with:

The crypto market regained momentum in the third quarter of 2026 after several months of decline. According to the latest report from CoinGecko, its total market capitalization increased by 39.6%, driven notably by Ethereum and flows into Bitcoin ETFs. However, this recovery is not accompanied by an equivalent return in trading activity. Spot volumes are declining, while leveraged positions are increasing. This disparity raises several questions for the coming months.

In brief

Crypto market capitalization increased by 39.6% in the third quarter of 2026, according to CoinGecko.
The market reached 3,000 billion dollars on September 21, before closing at 2,960 billion.
Ethereum surged 71%, exceeding Bitcoin’s 42.7% increase over the quarter.
Spot volumes on the ten major centralized platforms fell 14.2% to 1,650 billion dollars.
Open positions on perpetual contracts increased 40.6%, exceeding 100 billion dollars.

The crypto market regains positive momentum in the third quarter
The CoinGecko quarterly report reveals a significant change in market development. Between July and September 2026, total capitalization gained 840.1 billion dollars, an increase of 39.6%. This represents the best quarterly result since the fourth quarter of 2024. It also ends three consecutive quarters of decline. Despite this rebound, the market has not yet erased all losses accumulated since January.

The crypto market oscillates between 2,100 and 3,000 billion dollars capitalization in the third quarter of 2026, while trading volumes evolve over the months. Source: CoinGecko.
Total capitalization surpassed 3,000 billion dollars on September 21. It then slightly declined to finish the quarter at 2,960 billion dollars. This evolution shows that prices quickly returned to an upward trajectory over the summer. However, investors did not increase their trading at the same pace. CoinGecko thus notes that price increases outpaced market participation growth.

Average daily volumes confirm this gap between prices and activity. They reached 73.3 billion dollars in the third quarter, a decrease of 8.6% compared to the previous quarter. This is the third consecutive decline of this indicator. However, trading gradually regained strength between July and September. Their daily average rose from 57.7 billion dollars in July to 94.8 billion in September.

This difference between valuation and activity is a central element of the quarterly report. Indeed, a price increase does not necessarily mean more investors are participating in trading. The crypto market thus presents a real recovery but still incomplete commercially. Upcoming data will help verify if this trend continues. They will also help measure the rebound’s strength beyond mere price changes.

August concentrates most of the crypto market’s increase
August played a decisive role in the quarterly growth. Total market capitalization rose 21.8% during this period, adding 489.8 billion dollars in value. This gain represents more than half of the increase recorded between July and September. The market thus showed a progression highly concentrated over a few weeks. This concentration invites analysis of events accompanying the movement.

According to CoinGecko, two factors notably supported this evolution. The U.S. Treasury announced its intention to at least double its long-term government bond purchases. Simultaneously, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to record net capital inflows. These flows helped support demand for digital assets. Their evolution remains important to understanding if the movement can continue.

The political calendar also marked the quarter. On September 15, the U.S. Senate rejected the CLARITY Act in a decisive procedural vote. This event could have changed market participants’ expectations. Yet the report states this setback did not strongly slow price progress. Capitalization retained much of its gains until the end of September.

Despite these results, the annual balance remains less favorable. Total capitalization is still down 4% since early 2026. The rebound is thus significant quarterly but not yet enough to erase the prior decline. Moreover, the concentration of gains in August raises questions about their sustainability. The fourth quarter will need to show if financial flows and economic conditions continue to support valuations.

Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin while Hyperliquid sets a record
Ethereum is among the quarter’s main winners. Its price rose 71% to reach 2,684 dollars, according to CoinGecko figures. Over the same period, Bitcoin gained 42.7%, finishing the quarter at 83,576 dollars. This difference places ETH ahead of BTC among the main studied cryptocurrencies. It also marks the end of three consecutive quarters of decline for Ethereum.

Ethereum’s price declined from 2,966 dollars early in the year to 1,569 dollars in June before rising to 2,684 dollars in September 2026. Source: CoinGecko.
This outperformance had already appeared in July. At that time, Ethereum showed an increase of about 22%, compared to nearly 9% for Bitcoin. Financial flows then reinforced this momentum. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted 3.1 billion dollars in the third quarter. These inflows compensated for all outflows recorded during the first half of the year.

However, ETH’s price progression contrasts with the decline in its trading activity. The average daily trading volume decreased by 23.2%, reaching 11.5 billion dollars. Furthermore, the Glamsterdam upgrade, expected during the quarter, did not occur in this period. Investors must therefore distinguish price performance from the network’s technical and commercial developments. These indicators do not necessarily follow the same trajectory.

Hyperliquid’s HYPE token also recorded notable growth. It gained 40.5% in four days to reach 82 dollars after a statement from Donald Trump on August 19. The U.S. President indicated Michael Selig, Chairman of the CFTC, was working on introducing Hyperliquid in the U.S. market. The token then reached an all-time high of 98 dollars on September 23.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) shows strong growth in 2026, reaching an ATH of $98 before stabilizing around $91. Spot trading volumes indicate sustained activity in the market. Source: CoinGecko.
Another element concerns Payward, Kraken’s parent company. It plans to use its CFTC-regulated entities to offer U.S. clients perpetual futures contracts on Hyperliquid directly on blockchain. This initiative remains subject to regulatory approval. It could open new trading possibilities if authorities allow it. For now, this prospect is not yet a definitively approved service.

Crypto platforms show mixed developments
The third quarter also saw activity shift toward new networks. Robinhood Chain launched to the public on July 1 and generated more than 88.9 billion dollars in trading volume. CoinGecko categorizes these operations as decentralized exchanges, or DEX. The network averaged 9.5 million daily transactions during the quarter. This result ranks it third among the most active chains based on the data presented.

Robinhood DEX reaches $3.5 billion daily volume in September 2026, while transactions peak at 26.9 million in August. Source: CoinGecko.
Robinhood Chain aims notably to facilitate access to tokenized stocks and real-world assets. However, memecoin trades played a significant role in its initial activity. Daily DEX volume rose from 1.3 million dollars on July 1 to 3.5 billion on September 4. The report associates this increase notably with the memecoin Cashcat and launchpads like Pons. It also notes that most new tokens launched failed to meet expected success.

At the same time, centralized platforms saw a decline in spot volumes. The top ten platforms accumulated 1,650 billion dollars, down from 1,930 billion in the second quarter. This 14.2% decrease shows that price recovery did not trigger a general rise in trading. July was the low point, with 443.6 billion dollars, before a rebound to 712.3 billion in August.

Binance strengthened its position during this period. The platform captured 42.7% of quarterly spot volume, up from 38.7% in the previous quarter. According to CoinGecko, it remains the only platform in the ranking to exceed a 10% market share. Upbit grew 83.9% in September, but its volume fell 33.7% over the quarter. Bitget exited the top 10 after a hack in September.

Leveraged positions exceed 100 billion dollars again
While spot volumes decrease, perpetual contract markets show the opposite trend. Open positions on the ten major centralized platforms increased 40.6% in the third quarter. They thus surpassed 100 billion dollars at the end of September. This is a return to this level for the first time since the third quarter of 2025. This evolution shows operators have increased their exposure on derivatives markets.

The return above this threshold comes after a previous attempt, quickly interrupted. Open positions briefly exceeded 100 billion dollars on January 14 and 15 but did not hold this level. The movement in September thus marks an important difference by closing the quarter above the threshold. However, this increase is not uniform across all platforms.

Binance maintains spot trading dominance in 2026, ahead of OKX and Coinbase, on centralized exchanges (CEX) market. Source: CoinGecko.
Binance contributed to this growth with an increase of 12.7 billion dollars in its open positions. Conversely, KuCoin and Deribit recorded respective decreases of 41.2% and 18.9%. These differences highlight dynamic gaps between platforms. CoinGecko describes an uneven recovery rather than a generalized growth across the entire derivatives market.

Binance contributed to this growth with an increase of 12.7 billion dollars in its open positions. Conversely, KuCoin and Deribit recorded respective decreases of 41.2% and 18.9%. These differences highlight dynamic gaps between platforms. CoinGecko describes an uneven recovery rather than a generalized growth across the entire derivatives market.

The fourth quarter must confirm the rebound’s strength
CoinGecko’s report ends on September 30, but early October data already provides new insight. According to a BlockchainReporter report published October 10, Robinhood Chain’s daily transactions fell 42% during the first week of the month. Their average dropped from 10.8 million in mid-September to 6.2 million. This decrease indicates a slowdown after the strong summer growth.

The weekly spot trading volume on blockchain also declined. It fell 21% compared to the previous week, reaching 7.45 billion dollars. These numbers come from growthepie data relayed by CoinDesk, not CoinGecko. Thus, these series should not be directly compared as they do not rely on the same source. Nevertheless, they provide complementary indications on activity evolution after September.

Financial and regulatory conditions are other elements to watch. More than half of quarterly gains stem from August, marked by the U.S. Treasury announcement and Bitcoin ETF inflows. If these factors evolve, they could alter market growth pace. Likewise, Payward’s plan regarding perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid remains subject to regulatory approval. Its possible implementation will depend on competent authorities’ decisions.

U.S. regulation could also influence leveraged products’ evolution. On October 5, the CFTC presented a proposal concerning crypto leveraged trading for individuals. This consultation notably considers the possibility for some platforms offering perpetual contracts to register as designated contract markets. However, the proposal is not yet final. Its development could clarify access conditions to these products in the U.S.

In the fourth quarter, main indicators to monitor will be total capitalization, spot volumes, and open positions on derivatives markets. If trading rises alongside prices, the rebound could gain amplitude and participation. Conversely, a further drop in volumes would limit signs of a generalized recovery. With capitalization still 4% below its early-year level, the crypto market will need to confirm its ability to maintain its gains. Upcoming quarterly data will determine if price increases finally accompany a lasting return of activity.

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.

Join the program

A

A

Lien copié

Ghiles A.

Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.

MicroStrategy Could Be Removed From Major Global Stock Indexes

In briefBitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin is testing $80,000 and the 50-day average near $80,300, and a daily close below that line would be the first warning that the uptrend is weakening.Binance Coin (BNB): BNB trades near $717 and is close to its key $700 support, with sellers in control after an approximately 11% drop from the $810 high.Hyperliquid (HYPE): HYPE trades near $77.80 just above its 100-day average at $77, and a daily close below $75 would put the August rally at risk.Cardano (ADA): ADA trades near $0.219 and sits on its 100-day line near $0.220, with sellers holding the edge until it can reclaim $0.230.Bitcoin (BTC) Tests the $80,000 MarkBitcoin is testing the $80,000 mark once more after a gradual slide from its recent high. The price trades near $80,100, down approximately 1.8% on the day. The daily low touched exactly $80,000, and buyers stepped in there, but the bounce has been weak.

This drop comes after a strong run. Bitcoin rose from approximately $63,000 in August to nearly $87,500 in late September. It failed to break higher in early October and has now given back roughly 8% from that peak. The chart shows a series of lower highs since then, which is a sign that sellers have become more active.

BTC/USDT Chart by TradingViewThe price now sits right at the 50-day moving average, the blue line near $80,300. This line has held the trend since the August breakout, so it matters a lot. Bitcoin has already slipped below the shorter averages, which now sit just above at approximately $81,200 and $82,400.  

HOT Stories

If that happens, the next area to watch is $77,000 to $78,000. That zone held as support in September, and the 100-day average near $76,600 and the 200-day average near $75,600 sit just below it. Together they form a thick floor. A drop to this area would not damage the bigger trend, but it would erase most of the recent gains.

You Might Also Like

Trading volume also tells a quiet story. Recent red candles have not come with heavy volume, so this looks more like gradual selling than panic. That is good for bulls, but it also means buyers are not showing strong interest yet. A real bounce typically needs a clear jump in volume.

For bulls, the task is simple. Bitcoin needs to hold $80,000 and climb back above $82,400, where the shorter averages are stacked. That would turn the recent dip into a normal pullback. Clearing $84,000 could then open the way back toward the $87,500 high. For bears, a break below $80,000 on rising volume could pull the price toward $77,000 within days. The next few daily closes should set the direction.

Binance Coin (BNB) Hovers Just Above $700BNB is down approximately 1.2% on the day and trades near $717. The price reached a low of $708.89 earlier before buyers pushed it back up a little. Even so, the coin remains under pressure and is now near a key test.

BNB had a strong summer. It climbed from approximately $540 in late June to a high near $810 in early October. That is a gain of approximately 50%. Since the peak, the price has fallen approximately 11%, and the chart now shows lower highs, which points to a loss of momentum.

BNB/USDT Chart by TradingViewThe short-term picture has turned weaker. BNB has dropped below its shorter moving averages, which now sit between $733 and $750 and act as resistance. The RSI has slid to approximately 38, which indicates sellers are in control, but the coin is not yet oversold.

The most important level now is $700. The 100-day moving average, the orange line, sits right there at approximately $700, and the price is only 2.5% above it. Just below, the 200-day average near $686 offers a second layer of support. Both lines are rising, which has helped hold the trend together since August. Volume data on this chart is thin, so it is hard to judge how strong the selling is.

You Might Also Like

What is clear is the pattern of price. September lows near $705 were bought quickly, and today's low of $708.89 sits almost at the same line. If buyers defend this area again, it might form a solid base. A bounce would first need a move back above $735, where the main moving averages are bunched together. 

That would show that dip buyers are still active. A push over $750 would then put BNB back in a healthy uptrend, with $780 as the next target and the $810 high after that.

The risk is on the other side. A daily close below $700 would break the 100-day line and possibly send the price toward $686, and perhaps $660 if selling speeds up. That would wipe out much of the August and September rally. Bulls need to hold $700.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) Tests Key Support Near $77Hyperliquid is under pressure. HYPE trades near $77.80, down approximately 4% on the day. The daily candle opened at $80.85 and fell to a low of $77.56. The drop is part of a larger pullback.

HYPE/USDT Chart by TradingViewHYPE rose from approximately $51 in early August to a high near $98 in late September. That is a gain of nearly 90% within months. Since then, the price has lost approximately 20%, and every bounce has stopped at a lower level than the last one. The coin has now fallen below its 50-day moving average, the blue line near $83. It also sits below the shorter averages around $84 to $86, which now work as resistance. The RSI is near 38, so momentum is weak, but the coin is not yet oversold.

You Might Also Like

The key level is $77, where the 100-day moving average, the orange line, sits. HYPE is only approximately 1% above it. This line has supported the trend since the August bounce, and a mid-September dip near $75 also held. So buyers have a clear area to defend between $75 and $77.

Volume is a good sign for bulls. It has been shrinking during this drop, which means that sellers are not rushing out. But volume is also low on bounces, so buyers are not rushing in either. If $75 breaks on a daily close, the next real support is the 200-day line near $64.50. That would mean a drop of approximately 17% from here and would put the entire August rally at risk. Between those levels, there is little to stop the price.

For a recovery, HYPE should first get back above $83. That would take it over the blue line and show that dip buyers are active. After that, $86 and then $90 are the next hurdles. A new high above $98 looks far away for now. The larger trend is still up, but the short term belongs to sellers. 

Cardano (ADA) Slips Toward the 100-Day LineCardano is losing ground fast. ADA trades near $0.219, down approximately 5% on the day. The daily candle opened at $0.2303 and touched a low of $0.2159 before buyers stepped in.

This drop follows a solid recovery. ADA climbed from approximately $0.14 in June to a high near $0.282 in early October, a gain of approximately 100%. Since that peak, it has lost approximately 22%.

ADA/USDT Chart by TradingViewThe chart shows why the rally stalled. ADA failed several times to close above the 200-day moving average, the black line near $0.241. Each attempt in late September and early October ended with a sharp drop. That line is now the main wall for buyers. Today's fall also pushed the price through the 50-day line at $0.230 and onto the 100-day line, the orange one, near $0.220. This is the last support before the lower area.

The RSI is near 40, which indicates weak momentum but still some room to fall before the coin is oversold. Volume is moderate. It rose during the early October sell-off, but it is not at panic levels. That suggests holders are not dumping, although buyers are also not showing strength. A strong bounce would need volume to rise on green days.

You Might Also Like

Cardano is also moving with the broader market. Bitcoin is near $80,000 and also under pressure, so this looks like a broad pullback and not a Cardano-specific problem. If Bitcoin holds $80,000, ADA has a better chance to defend its support. If the 100-day line breaks on a daily close, the next target is $0.200, a round level where ADA bounced in September. Below it, $0.190 is the next floor, which could erase most of the recent rally.

For bulls, the primary mission is to reclaim $0.230. That would put the price back above the blue line and calm the market. A real change in trend needs a close above $0.241, and after that $0.260 becomes the next target. For now, sellers have the edge. ADA should hold the $0.215 to $0.220 area to keep the recovery alive and avoid a far deeper slide.

Share

Altcoins

15 October 2026 | 18:46 PYTH and STRK gained roughly 12% in an hour on October 15 as Bitcoin recovered $82,000, reversing some of the weakness surrounding a stronger-than-expected US inflation report.

Key Takeaways PYTH gained 11.98% in an hour; STRK rose 12.45%. Bitcoin recovered $82,000, while XRP and Solana also rebounded. Shorts accounted for about 93% of one-hour liquidations. US producer prices rose 1.3% in September, exceeding the 0.6% forecast. Bitcoin’s recovery spreads to PYTH, STRK and larger altcoins CoinMarketCap data showed Bitcoin near $82,200 during Thursday’s rebound. XRP returned to approximately $1.33 after briefly falling below $1.30, while Solana recovered to around $105 from roughly $101.

PYTH and STRK recorded particularly sharp one-hour gains. PYTH reached approximately $0.0969, up 11.98%, while STRK climbed 12.45% to around $0.0866. These are rolling one-hour changes, rather than gains measured from the start of the day.

PYTH and STRK’s one-hour gains. Source: CoinMarketCap. Short sellers take losses during the bounce CoinGlass liquidation data recorded alongside the rebound showed approximately $51.9 million in leveraged positions forcibly closed over one hour. Shorts accounted for $48.28 million, or about 93% of that total.

Short positions profit when prices fall. When a rising market leaves a leveraged short with insufficient collateral, the exchange can close the position by buying back the asset or contract. Those forced purchases can add upward pressure to an existing rally.

The preceding 24-hour totals showed a different balance: approximately $932.4 million in liquidations, including $795.6 million in longs and $136.7 million in shorts. Positions betting on higher prices therefore accounted for most of the daily liquidations, even as short sellers bore the brunt of the latest hour.

The figures show leveraged traders taking losses on both sides of the reversal. They do not establish what started the rebound or how much buying came from investors opening new positions.

Producer prices rise more than twice as much as forecast The recovery followed the September Producer Price Index release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on October 15. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 1.3% monthly increase in final-demand prices, compared with the 0.6% forecast cited in MarketWatch’s coverage. August’s increase was 0.5%.

Annual producer-price inflation reached 6.3%, its highest rate since December 2022. Energy drove much of the increase in goods prices, but the measure excluding food, energy and trade services also rose 0.5% during September, indicating pressure beyond those categories.

PPI measures the prices domestic producers receive for their output. Investors monitor it for evidence of inflation pressures and for components that feed into other inflation measures. A stronger reading can complicate the case for lower interest rates, particularly when it follows elevated consumer-price inflation.

For crypto, expectations of restrictive policy can discourage borrowing and speculative positions. Higher inflation-adjusted bond yields can also make interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to tokens that provide no contractual income. These channels help explain why strong inflation can pressure crypto, although they do not determine every immediate price reaction.

Prices can nevertheless rise when traders are positioned for further losses. Once a rebound begins, short closures can reinforce it even without an improvement in the economic outlook. Thursday’s reversal echoes earlier episodes when crypto rallied through negative headlines, leaving prices and the economic news moving in opposite directions.

Sentiment remains neutral despite the sharp reversal CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index showed 51 out of 100, within its neutral range. The broader sentiment gauge therefore showed neither fear nor greed, even as leveraged positions underwent substantial liquidations.

Crypto sentiment holds at neutral. Source: CoinMarketCap. STRK also has a governance decision underway Separately, Starknet’s community opened a seven-day, non-binding vote on whether to explore becoming an independent Layer 1 blockchain with post-quantum security. The official governance proposal follows StarkWare’s October 8 announcement that it was exploring that direction.

The proposal asks whether to pursue further research; it does not approve a migration away from Ethereum. An independent Layer 1 would need its own arrangements for securing and settling transactions, changing Starknet’s current reliance on Ethereum as a Layer 2. Post-quantum security concerns protection against attacks that sufficiently powerful quantum computers could pose to existing cryptography.

The vote gives STRK holders a separate development to assess, but the available trading figures do not establish that it contributed to the one-hour gain. PYTH’s simultaneous rise, alongside recoveries in Bitcoin, XRP and Solana, shows that the rebound extended beyond Starknet.

Thursday’s recovery coincided with substantial forced short closures despite accelerating producer-price inflation. Whether it also attracted sustained investment remains unanswered: the liquidation totals do not measure fresh spot demand, and the first rebound does not resolve the pressure that higher inflation could place on monetary policy.

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices and liquidation totals can change rapidly.

Author

Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.

Schwab Completes Retail Bitcoin and Ether Rollout, Begins Crypto Transfers

Stacks says its Bitcoin Staking feature has pulled in around 735 BTC across its first two bonding periods on mainnet. That figure arrived in the project’s Q3 2026 ecosystem update, published October 15.

How the 735 BTC broke down The total came from two separate windows. The first, called the Genesis Bond, opened on September 10, 2026, and contributed 230 BTC.

The second bond opened around October 10, 2026, and drew approximately 505 BTC. Its capacity was roughly 500 BTC, which means it was effectively filled to the brim.

Most of that second round came through a single channel. Around 483 of the roughly 505 BTC in Bond 2 was staked via Stacking DAO’s stBTC, a liquid staking token.

The stBTC route let a large share of Bond 2 stay in circulation as collateral across various decentralized finance applications while those coins kept earning staking yield at the same time.

The yield itself is projected at around 3% APY, paid weekly in BTC.

STX staking climbs after PoX-5 Stacks also reported that staking of its native STX token rose over 25% following the PoX-5 hard fork. That upgrade took effect on July 30, 2026. Since then, staked STX climbed from 392 million to 493 million tokens.

PoX stands for Proof of Transfer, the consensus mechanism Stacks has used since 2021. Rather than burning energy like Bitcoin miners, Stacks miners commit BTC to participate in the network. According to the update, those miners have committed over 4,200 BTC since the mechanism launched in 2021. PoX-5 is the latest revision of that system, and the Genesis Bond followed its activation by about six weeks.

Who showed up Stacks named 21Shares, HashKey Cloud, UTXO Management, and Sypher Capital among the institutions that participated. On the custody side, integrations came from Fireblocks, Fordefi, and Anchorage Digital.

What this means for Stacks and Bitcoin yield Around 483 of Bond 2’s roughly 505 BTC flowed through stBTC, meaning a single liquid staking provider accounted for the bulk of the second round.

Stacks expects Bond 3 to launch around November.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Bitcoin prices bounced back on October 15 after falling close to $80,000. (Photo by ROMAIN COSTASECA/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images)

Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

Bitcoin prices recovered on Thursday, October 15, bouncing back as broader macro pressures and leveraged positions fueled gains.

The digital currency climbed to more than $82,500, after falling to roughly $79,700, its lowest since approximately September 18, according to Coinbase data from TradingView. As a result, the cryptocurrency climbed 3.5% during the day, additional Coinbase figures from TradingView reveal.

“Bitcoin tested near $80,000 overnight before bouncing back toward $82,500,” Ryan Myher, COO of Genius, wrote via email. “The dip came after hotter-than-expected September CPI at 3.7%, which pushed rate-hike odds higher and kept global bond yields elevated while the dollar stayed firm.”

“That combination forced leveraged longs to unwind, and the move below recent support added to the selling,” he noted.

The analyst elaborated, stating that “Once yields eased slightly and the round number held, buyers stepped in and price recovered most of the drop. It looks more like a leverage flush driven by macro pressure than a change in the broader setup.”

Benjamin Sarquis Peillard, founder & CEO of credit marketplace Cap, offered a similar take, stating through emailed commentary that “Bitcoin’s drop below $80,000 and subsequent recovery above $82,500 highlights how sensitive the market remains to shifts in liquidity and broader risk appetite.”

“Sharp moves like this can be amplified by leveraged positions and forced liquidations, creating price swings that aren’t necessarily reflective of a fundamental change in long-term demand,” he emphasized.

“What’s particularly important is how closely Bitcoin is now tied to the broader macro environment,” said Sarquis Peillard. “Treasury yields, dollar strength, institutional flows and expectations around monetary policy all play an increasingly significant role in short-term price action.”

Julio Moreno, head of research for CryptoQuant, also chimed in, focusing on inflation data and leverage.

“Initially, Bitcoin dipped below $80K mostly as traders opened short positions after the recent CPI and PPI data showed higher inflation in the US, which increases the probability that the Fed will increase interest rates,” he said via email.

“You can see this in the chart in how short positions built up before the price declined (red triangles),” noted Moreno. The chart to which he refers is below:

This chart shows how traders' short positions accumulated before bitcoin prices declined on October 15.

CryptoQuant

“However, after that, a short squeeze happened, which pressured prices to the upside,” emphasized Moreno.

Crypto Markets Face Major Liquidation Risk, Q3 Data Shows

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes told traders to go long Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) rather than bet on an AI crash. He paired the call with a chart of CoreWeave’s falling stock.

Hayes says he would not wager on AI either way. Instead, he expects a multi-trillion-dollar bailout and wants exposure to the assets that could absorb that money.

Arthur Hayes Trades the Rescue, Not the CrashHayes shared the call on X.

His case for investors rests on history. In his view, every major technology rollout gets overbuilt, then crashes, then gets rescued. He expects the AI data center boom to hit that wall around late 2027 or 2028.

When the rescue comes, Hayes expects authorities to print more money than they did after the 2008 financial crisis.

The new money then needs a home. Hayes argues that Bitcoin and other crypto would absorb that liquidity, and he sees the flood lifting Bitcoin to $1 million or more.

Shorting AI, by contrast, holds little appeal for him. Arthur Hayes would rather wait for the rescue than guess the timing of the crash.

The 2020 pandemic rescue backs the idea. As the Federal Reserve more than doubled its balance sheet, Bitcoin rose from under $5,000 to above $60,000.

US Money Supply vs. Bitcoin Price. Source:BeInCryptoLately, though, that link has frayed. US money supply hit a record in August, yet Bitcoin trades about 35% below its October 2025 peak. The same gap with Bitcoin prices shows up globally.

Both of his picks have also lagged most AI stocks in 2026.

Bitcoin and Ethereum vs. AI Stocks in 2026. Source: BeInCryptoNot everyone sees an imminent burst either. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee argues that AI resembles 1997, not 1999, and puts a bubble peak near 2033.

AI Debt Fears Test the Bailout TradeCoreWeave, an AI cloud provider, plunged 15% a day after CNBC host Jim Cramer named it his only trusted AI cloud pick.

Its slide fed a broader worry about AI debt. In a September newsletter, Hayes called major US insurers insolvent over AI debt at market value.

For crypto traders, the debate is moving from whether AI shares fall to who pays if they do. Arthur Hayes has placed his bet on governments printing the bill, with Bitcoin and ETH as the hedge.

Bitcoin, the world’s oldest and most valuable cryptocurrency, reached a market capitalization of $2.31 trillion in August 2025. Yet some analysts continue to consider extreme scenarios, including the possibility of Bitcoin’s price falling to zero, to examine how such a shock might affect the broader financial system and millions of holders worldwide.

Market size and institutional exposureGOBankingRates reported Bitcoin’s market value at $2.31 trillion as of August 2025, surpassing the entire cryptocurrency sector’s $1.6 trillion value from 2021, a year that itself marked rapid growth from $330 billion in 2020. Bitcoin is no longer held only by individual investors. Asset managers, institutions, and national treasuries have added it to their balance sheets, while products like ETFs and futures allow millions more to gain exposure indirectly through investment accounts.

The presence of Bitcoin on the books of major asset managers amplifies potential risks. GOBankingRates stated that the world’s largest asset manager controls $90 billion in Bitcoin, representing 3.9% of the total market value. This gives the market a large, stable participant but also introduces systemic vulnerability if prices collapse.

DateWhat was measuredValueSource2020Whole crypto market$330 billionThe EconomistAug 2021Whole crypto market$1.6 trillionThe EconomistAug 2025Bitcoin only$2.31 trillionGOBankingRatesAug 2025Bitcoin at largest asset manager$90 billionGOBankingRatesMini dictionary: ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) – A type of investment fund traded on stock exchanges, which tracks the price of an underlying asset such as Bitcoin and offers exposure to its returns without direct ownership of the asset itself.

These figures demonstrate the scale of value tied to Bitcoin and the potential impact a severe decline could have on various parties.

Rapid growth and market reachThe Economist highlighted the pace at which the crypto sector has expanded. In 2021, the number of listed cryptocurrencies jumped from about 6,000 to 11,145—an 86% rise in just twelve months. Unique digital wallets holding crypto exceeded 100 million in the same year, roughly tripling the estimated 33 million from 2018. This spread reflected a growing user base, though a single person may control multiple wallets.

MeasureEarlier figureAug 2021 figureChangeListed currenciesAbout 6,00011,145Up about 86%Digital walletsAbout 33 million (2018)More than 100 millionAbout three times higherTotal market value$330 billion$1.6 trillionUp almost five timesCoinSwitch, a global crypto exchange aggregator, noted that many cryptocurrencies have lost almost all value or become inactive through the years, underscoring both rapid growth and high risk within the sector.

Examining Bitcoin’s collapse scenarioChangelly, a leading cryptocurrency exchange platform, discussed the possibility of Bitcoin crashing to zero, calling it extremely unlikely. The site emphasized the difference between a price collapse and a network shutdown, with Bitcoin’s software projected to continue operating even if the price of BTC hits zero. Holders managing their own wallets would retain control of their digital coins, though their financial value would be lost.

Nobel prize-winning economist Eugene Fama has contended that Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value since it pays no yield or dividend and is not backed by any asset. Fama’s view suggests that, in efficient markets, Bitcoin’s price could trend toward zero, although other analysts counter that such arguments may disregard technical and adoption-based factors.

Changelly identified deep liquidity, broad institutional demand, decentralization, and Bitcoin’s unique proof-of-work security as structural factors making a collapse improbable.

FactorHow it limits collapseDeep liquidityRequires huge coordinated selling worldwideInstitutional demandSteady buying from asset managers and fundsDecentralizationNo dominant entity can easily manipulate priceProof-of-work securityNetwork remains operational even during price swingsStill, GOBankingRates cautioned that large institutional holdings create a risk of contagion in the unlikely event of an extreme drop.

Routes to zero and stages of a crashChangelly outlined five potential scenarios that could push Bitcoin’s price to zero, ranging from a complete loss of public trust to severe regulatory bans, protocol failure, exchange collapse, and mining economics. CoinSwitch added that factors such as market sentiment, technological changes, and global regulation also influence outcomes.

RouteExplanationLoss of trustPanic selling accelerates the downfallProtocol failure/quantum threatNetwork broken via code flaw or powerful new technologyGlobal banInternational legal restrictions eliminate demandExchange meltdownMajor platforms halt withdrawals and tradingMining collapsePrice drops make mining unprofitable, undermining network securityThe mining risk is particularly quantifiable. When the cost of mining surpasses the value received, miners are incentivized to switch off machines, which can slow down the network and eventually open it to security threats like 51% attacks. The Bitcoin protocol automatically adjusts its mining difficulty about every two weeks based on network activity.

Mini dictionary: 51% attack – A situation in blockchain networks where a single actor or group gains control over more than half the network’s computational power, potentially allowing them to reverse transactions or double-spend coins.

Changelly described five successive phases in a potential Bitcoin collapse: initial steep price plunge, suspension of withdrawals and asset freezes on exchanges, network congestion with high transaction fees, mining shutdowns as security weakens, and spillover into traditional finance products such as ETFs. For example, in 2022, the stablecoin USDT briefly lost its dollar peg and traded as low as $0.92, illustrating how quickly extreme volatility can spread across assets.

With Bitcoin now interwoven into major asset managers, ETFs, and retirement accounts, a collapse to zero would have effects far beyond retail investors, potentially impacting pension funds, institutional portfolios, and confidence in financial markets.

Who would be affected?A crash would affect multiple groups simultaneously. Experts highlighted by GOBankingRates argue that losses at institutions with large Bitcoin exposure could trigger a crisis larger than previous financial disruptions. Younger investors, whose portfolios hold a greater share of digital assets, might lose confidence in investment altogether, while retirement savers in generations Y and Z face a significant hit to their assets.

GroupExpected effectLarge investorsLosses in ETFs, futures, balance sheetsYounger investorsPotential loss of trust and financial setbackRetirement saversLowered wealth for Gen Y and Gen ZExchange usersFrozen funds, delays in withdrawalsExchanges and issuersFurther regulatory scrutinyVince Stanzione, investor and author, observed that a future crash would feel more severe than previous cycles due to greater integration of related products and the wider range of investors now involved.

Both Changelly and CoinSwitch stressed the importance of secure custody practices, diversification, and personal ownership of private keys. While Changelly rates a crash to zero as extremely unlikely, the growing market size and interconnections prompt continued study of the potential scenarios and risks.

The integration of Bitcoin into large-scale financial products means that riskier outcomes impact a broader slice of the economy than ever before.

Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.

Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA.

FOMC Polymarket betting odds show traders pricing a 73% chance that the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at its October 27–28 meeting, against 27% for a 25-basis-point hike.

The odds come from Polymarket’s October contract, which has traded more than $41.5 million in volume. They are a market-implied probability, not a poll or an official Fed forecast, and they have moved quickly. An earlier snapshot taken at 07:53 UTC on October 15 showed a 75.5% chance of a hold, and hotter inflation data has arrived since.

The Kobeissi Letter reported that September PPI inflation rose to 6.3% against expectations of 5.3%, with core PPI at 5.0% against 4.4%, and that rate-hike odds were climbing on the news.

For Bitcoin traders, the odds put a number on one near-term macro risk: whether the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision changes borrowing costs.

Rates shape Treasury yields, the dollar and appetite for risk assets, but the contract does not show who is trading it or how BTC will react.

Fed Decision in October Polymarket Have a Gut Feeling? It Pays on Polymarket

What Do the FOMC Polymarket Betting Odds Measure? The contract tracks the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared with its level before the October meeting. Besides a hold and a 25-basis-point hike, the listed outcomes include a hike of 50 basis points or more and cuts of 25 or 50 basis points or more, all of which are priced below 1%. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. If a decision does not match a listed outcome, the market rules round the change up to the nearest 25 basis points.

The market is scheduled to close on October 29, and its resolution is tied to the FOMC statement and Federal Reserve rate information. Because prices respond to every new data release, the odds should always be read with their timestamp.

Understanding the difference between prediction-market prices and conventional rate expectations matters when comparing signals. The distinction is explained in this guide to CME FedWatch and Polymarket rate odds.

Could a Fed Hold Ease Pressure on Bitcoin? JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $80,000 pic.twitter.com/W98z2SlrdI

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) October 15, 2026

An October hold could remove an immediate policy-change catalyst, but that is not the same as a bullish Bitcoin signal. A pause might bring near-term relief if it reduces concern about a sudden rate increase. Traders could also read it as tightening delayed rather than abandoned, and the December contract points that way: Polymarket prices an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on December 9, against 19% for no change. A separate Polymarket market prices a 97% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026.

The Federal Reserve’s September minutes describe market pricing and surveys that assigned considerable probability to at least 25 basis points of firming by year-end. They also describe persistent inflation, a resilient economy and uncertainty about the outlook. That is a description of market expectations, not a promise by the committee to raise rates in October or December.

For BTC, the practical distinction is between the immediate decision and the path markets anticipate afterward. A hold with language that keeps further increases in play could leave yields and the dollar sensitive to new inflation or economic data. A clearer pause in the expected path could ease that pressure, though the Polymarket contract itself does not predict Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin traders assessing October’s Bitcoin performance and macro risks still need to distinguish a single meeting’s outcome from the rate path beyond it.

DISCOVER: 10+ Next Crypto to 100X In 2026

When Is the Next Fed Decision? The Federal Reserve’s calendar lists the October 27–28 meeting, followed by a December 8–9 meeting. The October contract names the post-meeting FOMC statement as its resolution source, so the published decision, not the odds displayed beforehand, will determine the result.

Until then, the FOMC Polymarket betting odds are a changeable snapshot of market pricing. A hold would mean no adjustment to the target range at this meeting, but it would not tell Bitcoin traders whether the Federal Reserve considers its tightening cycle finished.

DISCOVER: 15+ Upcoming Coinbase Listings to Watch in 2026

Follow 99Bitcoins on X For the Latest Market Updates and Subscribe on YouTube For Daily Expert Market Analysis.

#Bitcoin News Today

Why you can trust 99Bitcoins

10+ Years

Established in 2013, 99Bitcoin’s team members have been crypto experts since Bitcoin’s Early days.

90hr+

Weekly Research

100k+

Monthly readers

50+

Expert contributors

2000+

Crypto Projects Reviewed

Follow 99Bitcoins on your Google News Feed

Get the latest updates, trends, and insights delivered straight to your fingertips. Subscribe now!

Subscribe now

Alan Draper

Free Bitcoin Crash Course Enjoyed by over 100,000 students. One email a day, 7 days in a row. Short and educational, guaranteed!

Bitcoin briefly slid below $80,000 for the first time in almost a month, swept up in a broader retreat from risk assets as an AI-led selloff on Wall Street undercut crypto’s attempt to rebuild a bullish tone.

The largest digital asset weakened as US stocks opened lower, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping as much as 1.8% after signs of slowing revenue growth at Anthropic deepened questions about the artificial-intelligence trade. Treasury yields fell as investors sought safety in bonds, while producer-price data and stronger-than-expected retail sales did little to shake expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer.

Crypto is being pulled between those two forces: bullish sentiment among digital-asset analysts on one side, and a broader defensive turn across speculative markets on the other. Jeff Anderson, head of US at STS Digital, said the inflation data will “really hurt risk appetite” as markets enter the Fed blackout period with rate expectations “on a knife’s edge.”

The original digital asset slumped as much as 2.4% to $79,720, the least since Sept. 18. Bitcoin later pared the decline as stocks swung between gains and losses.

Traders are taking the dip as a warning sign of a broader directional downturn for Bitcoin, and are backing away from previous price targets of $100,000. On the crypto options platform Derive.xyz, the priced-in probability of Bitcoin climbing to $100,000 by Christmas fell by 2.8 percentage points to 9.7% over the past 24 hours, Derive.xyz founder Nick Forster said.

“This immediate pull-back from long-term upside bets alongside aggressive short-term hedging shows a dramatic regime shift, with institutional participants rapidly reassessing their macro risk exposure as the path for interest rates turns murky again,” Forster added.

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $80,000 on Thursday as US Producer Price Index (PPI) data significantly beat expectations.

Key points:

Bitcoin briefly traded below $80,000 on the back of a 100-basis-point overshoot in US PPI inflation data.September PPI measured 6.3% against market expectations of 5.3%, the biggest monthly jump since March 2022.BTC price analysis saw the potential for a “volatile retest” of trend lines around $78,000 next.Biggest PPI increase since March 2022 adds to Bitcoin tailwindsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD slipping to its lowest levels since Sept. 18, declining as much as 1.8% on the day, before rebounding to around $81,000.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

September PPI came in at 6.3%, a full 100 basis points above its anticipated level, while core PPI rose to 5% versus an expected 4.4%, per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

“The September increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7% in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand climbed 6.3% for the 12 months ended in September, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4% in December 2022,” an official news release confirmed.

US PPI one-month % change. Source: BLS

The numbers come a day after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) also overshot estimates, causing crypto and risk assets to fall. Risk assets were already under pressure from a tech sell-off centered in South Korea, where the KOSPI Composite Index fell 7.5% on Thursday.

Economist Mohamed El-Erian described PPI as “even more striking” than the CPI result. El-Erian and others noted that US bond yields were not rising on the back of higher inflation numbers. The US 10-year bond yield was down almost 3% at the time of writing, at its lowest levels since Sept. 23.

US 10-year bond yield one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Robin Brooks, former chief FX strategist at Goldman Sachs, repeated earlier findings which suggested that yields had “decoupled” from US macro data as market priorities switched to the government’s handling of the federal budget deficit.

Brooks compared the 30-day correlation between upside data surprises and daily moves in the 10-year yield, and revealed that it had dropped from near 0.6 earlier in 2026 to just below zero as of the end of August.

“That indicates that yields have decoupled from data and the obvious explanation for this is that markets are more focused on the trajectory of the deficit, so they’re pushing up longer-term yields regardless of what data surprises are doing,” he summarized in a blog post last month.

Analysis eyes “early-stage bull market” support retestBTC price action meanwhile brought two support trend lines back into focus: the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMA) at $76,144 and $78.459, respectively.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that BTC/USD could still retest both and preserve its overall bullish trend.

“Deviating below them on a volatile retest to find a pullback bottom has historically happened in early-stage Bull Markets. These deviations however would occur after a bullish crossovers of these two EMAs, whereas Bitcoin is still pre-crossover,” Rekt Capital said in an X post.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Bitcoin remained below the area between $82,500 and $82,800, a key support zone of interest in recent weeks.

Analyst Aksel Kibar said that Bitcoin’s latest weekly close around $83,700 lacked strength as a breakout.

“A weekly close inside the range can resume wide consolidation between 60K-82.8K 75K can be utilized as the pattern (rectangle bottom reversal) negation level,” he said.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar on X.com

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Jensen Huang backs CoreWeave: The company’s financial conditions continue to improve and it does not require guarantees from NVIDIA.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said data center operator CoreWeave’s financial health is improving. Nvidia is CoreWeave’s computing equipment supplier. Speaking at an event in Stockholm, Huang stated: “CoreWeave’s strength grows stronger every day.” He believes Nvidia does not need to provide financial guarantees for CoreWeave. “I am optimistic. In fact, their cost of capital is declining.” Earlier, credit market confidence in CoreWeave had deteriorated, with concerns rising over its default risk, and Huang is trying to restore market confidence in the company. CoreWeave is a key case testing the sustainability of business models for emerging AI infrastructure firms. These firms emerged to meet the nearly unlimited growth in AI computing power demand as described by companies like Nvidia. Backed by suppliers including Nvidia, CoreWeave and similar entities have taken on large amounts of debt, sparking market concerns about circular financing generating artificial demand.

3 minutes ago

During intraday U.S. stock trading, most crypto-related concept stocks turned positive, with Circle surging over 7%.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), most US-listed cryptocurrency-related stocks turned positive during US trading hours. Circle (CRCL) rose 7.10%, Block (XYZ) gained 3.80%, Strategy (MSTR) rose 3.79%, Coinbase (COIN) gained 3.29%, and BitMine (BMNR) rose 1.71%.

3 minutes ago

Nasdaq is currently experiencing network issues, and clients may intermittently encounter data gaps.

Nasdaq stated it is currently experiencing network issues, which may cause intermittent data gaps for its clients. The firm recommends clients use Chicago-based data sources as a backup.

3 minutes ago

Jupiter launches YOLO, a high-leverage trading product modeled after PaperTrade, supporting up to 1000x leverage.

Jupiter co-founder SIONG announced in a post that Jupiter Labs has launched an experimental high-leverage trading product called YOLO, which offers leverage ranging from 500x to 1000x. The product adopts the JLP model framework, simulating positions based on real market prices, with actual realized profits and losses—no need to execute corresponding leverage positions in the open market. YOLO’s profits are disbursed from a dedicated fund pool. If the fund pool lacks sufficient liquidity to settle profit positions, payouts may be queued instead of processed instantly. SIONG emphasized that this model differs from traditional perpetual contracts, carrying its own unique risks and limitations. He stated that launching YOLO under Jupiter Labs is to provide a testing ground for such new financial products and trading experiences, without the need to adapt to existing offerings. Currently, YOLO remains in the early stage of development, with room for further improvement. The launch was inspired by PaperTrade, he added.

3 minutes ago

Final implementation rules for the GENIUS Act are expected to be released by the end of October.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) Director Jonathan Gould said the final rules for the OCC’s implementation of the GENIUS Act are expected to be released soon, by the end of October. Gould made the remarks at the "Building the New Digital Economy" event hosted by the Milken Institute, which was held concurrently with DC FinTech Week.

3 minutes ago

The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower but climbed higher, with the S&P 500 index turning positive.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), the three major U.S. stock indexes opened lower and moved higher: the S&P 500 turned positive, the Nasdaq’s decline narrowed to 0.4%, and the Dow Jones rose nearly 1%. Among component stocks, Micron Technology neared a positive turn after falling more than 6% earlier; Microsoft, Apple, and Google gained 0.5% each, while SanDisk and SpaceX fell 3%.

3 minutes ago

In brief Crypto liquidations reached $948.22 million in 24 hours across 177,440 traders, with long positions accounting for 90.6%, per CoinGlass. Bitcoin fell 2.6% and broke support after hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data revived bets on another Fed rate hike. Bitcoin now trades roughly 2% below the average cost of U.S. spot ETF holders near $82,300, putting those buyers back underwater. Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Thursday for the first time in over a month, extending Wednesday’s inflation-driven slide and wiping out nearly $1 billion in leveraged crypto bets. It's currently trading just about $82,000 after several hours of increased volatility.

Ethereum and XRP dropped close to 5%, Zcash sank almost 10%, and only five coins in the top 100 managed gains above 1%. Pick any coin in the top 100 and it's likely in the red today.

Myriad: How low will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.Across the market, 177,440 traders were liquidated in 24 hours for a total of $948.22 million, per CoinGlass, with longs accounting for $858.96 million, or 90.6%. Ethereum led with $282.03 million, with Bitcoin just behind at a little over $200 million.

This was the third-heaviest day for long liquidations in the last 90 days, behind October 8 and August 22. The largest single order liquidated yesterday was a $12.03 million Bitcoin long on Binance, force-closed at $80,208.96.

A liquidation happens when a trader borrows to bet on a price move and the market goes the other way. Once losses eat through the collateral, the exchange sells the position automatically, and that forced selling drags prices lower and trips the next batch of leveraged longs.

The trigger was Wednesday’s inflation report, which showed consumer prices up 3.7% year over year in September against a 3.6% forecast, with core inflation at 2.6% against 2.5%. Thursday’s Producer Price Index, which tracks business input costs, rose 6.3% annually versus a 5.5% forecast.

Much of that inflation comes from oil, with Brent crude near $104 a barrel, about 70% above a year ago amid the war between the U.S. and Iran. That feeds into fuel, shipping, and almost everything else that needs to be transported to reach consumers.

Hot inflation pushes the Federal Reserve toward higher interest rates, which lifts Treasury yields, the return investors earn for lending to the U.S. government. A bond paying around 5% with almost no risk makes Bitcoin a harder sell, while higher rates make borrowing pricier and strengthen the dollar, draining the cheap money leveraged crypto traders run on.

Iliya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo, reads the selloff as a broad exit from risk more than a Fed story, with stocks and copper falling, gold rising and South Korea’s Kospi down about 8%.

“Bitcoin has slipped to the bottom of the $81,000 to $87,000 range it has held since late September, and Glassnode flags $80,000 as the level to watch,” Kalchev told Decrypt. “It is also now roughly 2% below the average cost of U.S. spot ETF holders, near $82,300, after closing above that line on 21 of the 24 days since September 21. That puts ETF buyers back underwater, and reclaiming it is the first test of any rebound,”

On the daily chart, Bitcoin broke below $81,603, the strongest upper support from its August-to-October rally from $62,763 to $87,422, where uptrend pullbacks often stall. The drop reached $79,711 before buyers pulled the price back near $80,925, off a rising trend band near $80,286.

Bitcoin price data. Image: TradingviewThe Relative Strength Index, a 0-to-100 momentum gauge where 50 splits bulls from bears, fell to about 44, while the golden cross still keeps the longer-term uptrend intact.

A daily close back above $81,603 would reopen the path to $84,245 and the $87,422 swing high. Losing $80,286 would expose $78,002 as the next support, and then $75,092.

Kalchev sees early signs the selling is not deepening, including cooling profit-taking, but said a recovery needs more than a bounce.

“Three things need to line up for Bitcoin to push through. ETF flows have to turn consistently positive, after $681 million of outflows last week and a single $177 million inflow day. Selling by long-term holders has to ease,” Kalchev explained.

For Kalchev, a bullish market would require that leverage happens with a sustained buying instead of just a bounce. He added that a “Fed path that stops at one 25 basis point hike would take some pressure off the backdrop.”

The Fed announces its rate decision on October 28, followed by core PCE inflation data the next day and October payrolls on November 6.

Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.

Join 72,000+ readers

Create an account to save your articles.

Add on Google

Add Decrypt as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google.

Bitcoin retested $82,000, and the move cost leveraged short sellers $20 million in liquidations.

What happened at $82,000 A short is a bet that price will fall. Add leverage, and that bet is made with borrowed money that an exchange can pull the moment the trade moves against you.

When Bitcoin pushed back toward $82,000, some of those positions hit their liquidation thresholds. Exchanges closed them automatically, wiping out $20 million in short exposure.

Forced closures of shorts also mean forced buying. Each liquidated short has to be bought back, which can add a little fuel to the move that caused it in the first place.

Total liquidations across crypto derivatives markets topped $1 billion during some stretches of October 2026. CoinGlass data showed long positions making up roughly 80-90% of those totals.

Specific flushes included $771 million in liquidations, mostly from long trades. Separate events wiped out $120 million and $485 million at other points.

Why $82,000 keeps coming up Bitcoin has spent early to mid-October 2026 trading near $82,000. It has retested that level several times and slipped below it more than once.

Rising oil prices, fresh US inflation data, rising Treasury yields and moves in Asian equity markets have all weighed on risk appetite.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have also seen outflows totaling hundreds of millions of dollars in a single week.

Traders have been watching a support zone around $81,000 to $82,000. A second line sits lower, near $80,100.

Leverage is shrinking, but it has not left the building The heavy long liquidations earlier in the month forced a partial clean-out of the derivatives market. Bitcoin futures open interest dropped to around $52.7 billion afterward.

What this means for traders and investors The $20 million short squeeze tells you positioning had shifted. After weeks of punishing longs, enough traders had turned bearish that a bounce to $82,000 could catch some of them offside.

Still, the size of this squeeze is a reminder to keep expectations calibrated. A $20 million flush is a ripple compared to the $771 million long wipeout.

For anyone trading with leverage, the $81,000 to $82,000 zone remains the line to watch. A clean break below it could put the $80,100 level in play.

For longer-term holders, if US spot Bitcoin ETFs stop bleeding capital, that would remove one of the clearer sources of pressure this month.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Bitcoin and XRP fell further on Thursday as hotter-than-expected US PPI inflation data reinforced concerns over Fed rate hikes. The data followed a hotter-than-expected CPI inflation print a day before. Stock and crypto market investors now await comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh later today.

US PPI Inflation Surges to 1.3 MoM and 6.3% YoY The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September PPI inflation data on October 15. The PPI MoM jumped 1.3% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, above the 0.6% forecast. This marked the largest monthly rise since March 2022.

Annual PPI inflation came in at 6.3%, massively higher than expected at 5.4%. It even surpassed 5.6% in the prior month. This comes amid elevated oil prices due to a renewed US-Iran war and escalating Middle East tensions.

The core PPI reading came in hotter than expected at 0.7% MoM, pushing the annual increase to 5%. Core PPI YoY surged to 4.4%, above expectations and even the previous month’s 4.8%.

The print builds on Wednesday’s hotter CPI inflation data of 3.7% YoY, which already lifted near-term Fed rate hike odds. Markets are now pricing in 34% odds of a 25 bps rate hike in October and 66% chances of a pause, according to CME FedWatch data.

Moreover, retail sales in the US increased 0.8% MoM, after an upwardly revised 1.3% rise in August and well above forecasts of 0.3%. This shows resilience in the US economy and opens room for another potential Fed rate hike this month.

Inflation is RED hot in the US.

For anyone not keeping track, US CPI inflation is now nearly double the Fed's 2% target and US PPI Inflation is more than triple that target.

PPI inflation was expected to fall in August, but instead it surged to 6.3%, its second highest level in…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 15, 2026

Bitcoin and XRP Prices Plunge Bitcoin fell near $81,500, extending the 24-hour drop to more than 3.60% after the hot PPI inflation print. It has now tumbled even below the key 50-day moving average support level. The 24-hour low was $80,443 as the broader crypto market faced pressure from elevated rate expectations.

XRP price fell deeper and holds near $1.30, down more than 5% over the past 24 hours. As CoinGape reported today, a popular analyst predicted a fall towards $1.25 before buying pressure to reclaim $1.42 and $1.60 amid strong upside momentum.

However, the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to 5.06% as investors rotate from tech stocks to government bonds for safety amid sustained AI investments. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) pulled back from its peak to around 102.10 on Thursday.

Attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva later today. Any hawkish lean on inflation or Fed monetary policy could further pressure Bitcoin, stocks, and other risk assets. A more measured tone might offer temporary relief.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) face renewed ETF outflows and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded around $500 million and $600 million in weekly net outflows over the past week, which Charles Schwab equity research director Adam Lynch attributes to tactical institutional trading rather than weakening long-term demand.

Investors are using crypto ETFs to move substantial capital over shorter periods, benefiting from their liquidity and cost efficiency.

Lynch expects crypto ETFs to expand beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum to assets including XRP (CRYPTO: XRP), Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) and Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE).

What Could Trigger the Next Crypto Rally?In a Schwab Network interview, Lynch identified regulatory progress and Ethereum’s upcoming Q4 network upgrade, aimed at improving speed and capacity, as potential catalysts.

Despite the Clarity Act’s setback, the CFTC and SEC are advancing separate crypto regulatory initiatives.

Grayscale research head Zach Pandl expects Bitcoin to withstand further modest rate hikes as demand for scarce assets remains supported by fiscal deficits and currency debasement concerns.

He believes Bitcoin bottomed near $58,000 in June, despite Fed rate hikes, rising bond yields and regulatory uncertainty.

Why Grayscale Favors ETH, SOL and BNB In a Coinage interview on Oct.15, Pandl identified Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) and BNB Chain (CRYPTO: BNB) as overlooked opportunities with rapidly rising institutional adoption of stablecoins, tokenized deposits and real-world assets.

Investor enthusiasm is accelerating for for privacy-focused cryptocurrencies and revenue-generating protocols.

He expects trillions of dollars in TradFi assets to move on-chain, positioning established smart contract platforms as critical infrastructure.

While privacy technologies and perpetual futures gain traction, Pandl believes investors are underestimating the long-term potential of established blockchain ecosystems.

Image: Shutterstock

Read Next

Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.

Bitcoin may surpass $175,000 over the next few quarters, according to Brian Vieten, senior research analyst at Siebert Financial, a diversified financial services firm. Vieten shared this forecast during comments made on October 14, attributing his bullish outlook to the maturing structure of the market and new institutional developments.

Shift in Market StructureVieten explained that bitcoin’s resilience has improved significantly since the crypto lending failures in 2022. Broader ownership and increased access to financing options now underpin the market’s foundation, he stated.

Vieten emphasized, “The market structure has fundamentally shifted,” noting stronger institutional involvement and reduced selling pressure as key factors in the digital asset’s changing landscape.

His valuation model for bitcoin incorporates three main factors: overall money supply growth, the rate of digital wallet adoption, and demand trends for the cryptocurrency.

Institutional Exposure and Bank LendingVieten regards exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as an increasingly vital source of long-term investment in bitcoin. He cited recent improvements in market sentiment and described a reduction in selling pressure across investment groups, with miners increasingly diversifying into sectors such as artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. These strategies, he says, help miners secure alternative capital streams.

Companies holding bitcoin in their reserves generally exhibit low debt levels and conservative spending habits, which Vieten sees as positive for price stability. He also pointed to expanding transparency through on-chain trading platforms, which now offer more direct insight into market movements.

Vieten highlighted growing involvement from major banking institutions. For example, JPMorgan has started accepting shares of BlackRock’s IBIT—an exchange-traded fund tracking bitcoin—as loan collateral, allowing businesses to secure funding without selling their bitcoin ETF shares. JPMorgan first outlined plans to accept bitcoin ETFs as collateral in June 2025.

MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has offered similar perspectives, anticipating continued advancements in banking custody and lending options for digital assets even as broader crypto legislation faces delays.

Vieten does not view the upcoming November midterm elections as a significant risk factor for digital asset policy directions.

Mini dictionary: Siebert Financial is a US-based diversified financial services company, offering brokerage, investment banking, and advisory services to retail and institutional clients.

Stablecoin Expansion and Consumer AdoptionVieten believes that growth in stablecoins, such as USDC, could act as the next major driver for bitcoin’s price. Stablecoins are designed to maintain a consistent value by being backed one-to-one with assets like cash, bank deposits, or short-term US Treasuries. He expects rising adoption of blockchain payments to bring new participants and liquidity into the crypto ecosystem, indirectly benefiting bitcoin demand.

He stated that, “That’s what takes us to $175k and beyond in the next few quarters,” referencing the increasing role of stablecoins in supporting short-term Treasury demand and the broader crypto ecosystem.

A new regulatory framework, known as the GENIUS Act, will require stablecoins to be fully backed by eligible assets. This act is scheduled to take effect on January 18, 2027, and aims to strengthen confidence in major stablecoins.

Meanwhile, consumer access to digital dollars continues to expand. Samsung announced that starting in the last week of October, USDC payments will be integrated into Samsung Wallet. The rollout is set to reach 82 million Galaxy devices across the US, enabling users to conduct eligible bank transfers to more than 60 countries through their mobile wallets.

Babylon advances native Bitcoin lending proposal on Aave V4Latest NewsPublishedOct 15, 2026

Babylon’s proposal to bring native Bitcoin collateral to Aave V4 has entered a new governance stage, but further votes and security reviews remain before launch.

Bitcoin-focused developer Babylon Labs has submitted a proposal to let users borrow stablecoins on Aave against native Bitcoin (BTC).

Under the hood, users would lock their BTC in vaults on the Bitcoin network and borrow against it on Aave. A non-transferable token on Ethereum would represent the collateral, while the BTC itself would remain on its native blockchain without being bridged or wrapped.

The Wednesday proposal follows an initial submission on May 25 and a preliminary community vote that passed on June 10, according to Babylon Labs.

Under the proposal, Aave DAO would receive the first $500,000 in qualifying annual revenue generated by the integration.

Aave already supports loans against tokenized Bitcoin through tokens such as Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) and Coinbase Wrapped Bitcoin (cbBTC). Wrapped tokens rely on custodians to hold the underlying Bitcoin, introducing counterparty risks.

As of Thursday, the proposal remains at the Aave Request for Comment (ARFC) stage, where it faces community feedback and risk analysis.

If community consensus is reached, it can proceed to a three-day offchain Snapshot vote, which requires at least 320,000 AAVE-equivalent votes in favor before advancing to a formal onchain vote, according to Aave’s governance rules.

The onchain vote must meet quorum and approval requirements.

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Babylon Labs has submitted a new governance proposal on October 14, 2026, to allow Bitcoin holders to borrow stablecoins through Aave V4 without selling their BTC, moving their coins to another blockchain, or handing them to a custodian.

Summary

Babylon submitted an Aave V4 proposal allowing Bitcoin holders to borrow stablecoins against native BTC.
Users would lock Bitcoin directly on its blockchain without depositing coins with third party custodians.
Aave DAO would receive the first $500,000 in annual qualifying revenue under the proposed agreement.
The integration requires further governance approval, finalized risk settings, and security checks before any launch.
Babylon proposes two dedicated Aave V4 components to manage Bitcoin collateral, borrowing, and liquidation procedures.

Babylon Labs published the proposal on Aave’s governance forum, advancing an integration first discussed in May. The plan would introduce two dedicated components for Bitcoin backed borrowing and loan liquidations. The integration still requires community approval, finalized lending risk settings, and further security checks before launch.

Babylon proposes Bitcoin lending without wrapping BTC
The proposal introduces Babylon’s Trustless Bitcoin Vaults technology to Aave V4, the latest version of the decentralized lending protocol.

Under the proposed system, Bitcoin holders would deposit BTC into special vaults operating directly on the Bitcoin blockchain. Their coins would remain locked on Bitcoin while supporting loans issued through Aave.

Borrowers could then access stablecoins against the value of their deposited Bitcoin, subject to the lending rules and collateral requirements eventually approved by Aave governance.

The process differs from Aave’s existing Bitcoin lending arrangements, which support assets such as Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) and Coinbase Wrapped Bitcoin (cbBTC).

Wrapped Bitcoin products are tokens issued on another blockchain to represent BTC held through a separate arrangement. Their ownership and custody structures depend on the product involved.

Babylon proposes avoiding that structure by keeping the original BTC on Bitcoin throughout the loan.

The technology uses Bitcoin’s Taproot system to restrict how deposited coins can move. Transactions involving the vault must satisfy predetermined conditions before the locked BTC can be released.

Babylon’s proposal describes the process as “without transferring custody to any trusted third party.” Although the coins would remain on Bitcoin, Aave needs a way to recognize the collateral within its Ethereum based lending system.

Developers therefore propose a restricted ERC-20 accounting token representing each vault’s BTC value. The token would exist solely inside the integration. Users could not freely transfer, trade, or hold it outside the designated contracts.

Babylon specifies that the accounting token would represent locked BTC on a one to one basis. Its supply would increase when a vault becomes active and decrease when collateral leaves the lending position.

The earlier launch of Babylon’s Bitcoin vault technology introduced the protocol’s approach to using native BTC in decentralized finance without conventional custodial bridges.

Aave V4 would introduce two Bitcoin lending components
Babylon proposes creating two new components within Aave V4, known as Spokes.

The first, called the Babylon Spoke, would allow users to borrow supported assets against native Bitcoin collateral. The second, called the BTC Vault Swap Spoke, would handle a more complicated part of Bitcoin lending: liquidations.

A liquidation occurs when a borrower’s collateral value falls too far relative to the outstanding loan. The lending system can close some or all of the position to protect the funds borrowed from the protocol.

Traditional Aave liquidations generally involve assets already available on the same blockchain. Babylon’s proposed arrangement has an additional requirement because the underlying collateral sits on Bitcoin, while borrowing takes place through Aave.

According to the proposal, redeeming a Bitcoin vault can take several days because transactions must pass through a challenge period.

The BTC Vault Swap Spoke would allow liquidators to receive wrapped Bitcoin promptly while designated participants complete the underlying Bitcoin settlement.

WBTC is the initial wrapped asset proposed for that process.

The documents explain that the liquidation system would process individual Bitcoin vaults. A borrower holding several vaults could specify the order in which they would be used if liquidation became necessary.

Aave DAO would control the lending parameters, including borrowing limits, collateral requirements, interest rate settings and liquidation rules. 

Risk service providers would supply the proposed settings for the two components. The governance forum discussion received support from Aave founder Stani Kulechov, who described native Bitcoin as an important potential source of lending collateral.

He welcomed the plan and supported using Aave V4’s dedicated architecture for the integration. The development follows earlier reporting on Babylon’s $15 million investment from a16z, which described the company’s plans to expand from Bitcoin staking into lending services.

Aave DAO could receive the first $500,000 in annual fees
Babylon’s proposal includes a revenue sharing arrangement between Aave DAO and the Babylon Foundation.

Under the proposed terms, Aave DAO would receive all of the first $500,000 in qualifying annual revenue generated by the integration. The qualifying revenue would come from specified protocol fees, including Aave’s liquidity fee on borrowing interest and fees collected through liquidation activities.

The arrangement would not apply to every dollar of interest paid by borrowers. After the first $500,000, revenue would be distributed according to several annual bands.

For qualifying revenue between $500,000 and $2 million, Aave DAO would receive 78%, Babylon would receive 18%, and 4% would go toward token purchases.

Higher revenue bands would provide different distributions. At annual qualifying revenue above $6 million, the proposed allocations would be 61.5% for Aave DAO, 31.5% for Babylon, and 7% for token purchases.

The token purchase allocation would fund open market purchases of AAVE and BABY, with 85% directed toward AAVE and 15% toward BABY. Purchased tokens would be divided equally between Aave DAO and Babylon Foundation.

These figures describe a proposed revenue formula, not projected earnings. Babylon has not guaranteed that the integration would generate enough activity to reach any of the thresholds.

In the governance document, Babylon reported that its existing Bitcoin staking protocol had activated more than 100,000 BTC cumulatively since August 2024.

The company listed approximately 40,772 BTC as currently staked when the proposal was prepared, with an estimated value of $3.37 billion.

Those figures relate to Babylon’s existing staking activities and do not represent Bitcoin already deposited into the proposed Aave lending integration.

The expansion of Babylon’s Bitcoin staking services through Kraken previously introduced another route for eligible customers to participate in Bitcoin based network security.

Staking and the proposed lending integration are separate activities with different reward arrangements and financial risks.

Bitcoin lending proposal needs more votes and security reviews
The October 14 submission is an Aave Request for Comment, meaning community members and risk specialists can review and discuss the plan.

Babylon initially introduced the integration through a Temperature Check proposal on May 25.

That preliminary proposal passed a community vote in June, allowing developers to prepare the more detailed October submission.

The current stage does not authorize the integration to launch.

According to Aave’s governance rules, a proposal advancing from the discussion stage can move to an offchain Snapshot vote before reaching formal onchain governance.

For the relevant Snapshot process, the proposal requires at least 320,000 AAVE equivalent votes in support. The final onchain vote must satisfy its own participation and approval requirements.

Babylon has not announced when those votes will take place.

The proposal describes security reviews conducted across five areas: Bitcoin vaults, proof generation, smart contracts, web services and the cryptographic system supporting vault settlements.

Six security firms participated in the audit work, including Coinspect, Sherlock, Zellic, ABDK, ZK Security and Runtime Verification.

Babylon states that each component received at least two independent reviews. Runtime Verification performed formal verification work on the smart contracts.

The company is now conducting another review of finalized changes with Coinspect, ABDK and Zellic before any mainnet deployment.

Babylon has committed to publishing the follow up reports when that work is completed.

The next formal steps listed in the October 14 proposal are community feedback and risk analysis, a possible Snapshot vote, and an Aave Improvement Proposal containing the complete risk settings for final onchain approval.