Bitcoin continues with its gradual weekend climb and has neared $65,000 after bouncing from $63,700 yesterday.
Most larger-cap alts have remained still over the past 24 hours, which is why we will focus on their weekly moves, where ZEC, CRO, LTC, and ONDO stand out.
Can BTC Reclaim $65K? The previous weekend was also quite sluggish but slightly positive for BTC, as it stood at around $64,000 for 48 hours straight despite the new attacks between the US and Iran. However, the market finally priced in the skyrocketing tension on Monday morning with a painful dip to $61,800.
The softer-than-expected CPI numbers for June announced on Tuesday, though, were well received by BTC as the asset flew by several grand to $65,600 on Wednesday. This became its highest price tag in about three weeks.
However, it couldn’t keep the momentum going and crashed toward $62,000 once again on Thursday and Friday. Nevertheless, the bulls intercepted the move and didn’t allow another leg down. Instead, BTC recovered some ground to $64,000 yesterday and climbed to almost $65,000 earlier today. It still remains below that level, which has been categorized as key for its short-term price performance.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization has risen to almost $1.3 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the altcoins has rocketed to over 57%.
BTCUSD July 19. Source: TradingView Weekly Gainers and Losers Ethereum jumped to almost $1,950 earlier this week, and even though it has dropped by nearly $100 since then, it’s still 4.2% up since last Sunday. ZEC is the biggest gainer from the larger caps, gaining 9% to $560. LTC, ONDO, and CRO have posted impressive increases as well, up to 8% in the case of Crypto.com’s native token.
In contrast, HYPE has plunged by more than 9%. Nevertheless, it has defended the $60 support and now sits inches above it. BCH, CC, TAO, and AAVE have marked significant losses since last Sunday as well.
The total crypto market cap, though, has increased by approximately $60 billion since this time a week ago and now sits above $2.270 trillion on CG.
Cryptocurrency Market Overview July 19. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor has stepped up his opposition to Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110, arguing that the temporary soft fork could weaken Bitcoin’s neutral base rules.
Summary
Saylor says BIP 110 risks Bitcoin neutrality by restricting transactions through new consensus-level protocol rules. BIP 110 would temporarily limit data-heavy transactions while leaving outputs created before activation entirely unaffected. Miner support remains near zero, while Saylor and Back warn disputed rules could divide Bitcoin. In an article titled “110 Reasons BIP 110 Is a Bad Idea,” Saylor said the network should not use consensus changes to decide which valid transactions deserve access to block space.
In Saylor’s article, he argued that Bitcoin cannot reliably determine why transaction data exists. He closed with the line: “Bitcoin does not need guardians of purity. It needs guardians of neutrality.”
Saylor challenges consensus restrictions on transaction data BIP 110, formally called the Reduced Data Temporary Softfork, would apply consensus rules for about one year. The official BIP 110 specification would restrict large data fields, limit OP_RETURN outputs to 83 bytes and cap payloads at 256 bytes. Outputs created before activation would remain exempt.
Supporters say the proposal would reduce arbitrary data storage and lower burdens on node operators. Saylor accepts that some inscriptions, tokens and files may have value or may be linked to harmful activity. However, he questions whether those concerns justify changing Bitcoin’s consensus rules to block transaction structures the network currently accepts.
Neutrality becomes the center of the BIP 110 debate Saylor’s argument focuses on the difference between transaction intent and transaction structure. He said the protocol cannot know whether data represents an image, proof, authentication record, contract or another future use. Under his view, miners, node operators and fee markets should handle disputed activity without imposing new base-layer restrictions.
The position follows an earlier clash over the proposal. Saylor and Blockstream co-founder Adam Back opposed BIP 110 and warned that enforcing disputed rules without broad support could create fork risks. Saylor previously called the proposal’s consensus precedent “extremely dangerous.”
Miner support remains a key test for BIP 110 BIP 110 uses a modified activation process that seeks support from 1,109 of 2,016 mined blocks, equal to 55%. Crypto.news reported on July 12 that miner signaling remained near zero, far below the threshold needed to lock in the proposed rules.
Bitcoin developer Luke Dashjr continues to support the proposal. As reported by crypto.news, Dashjr rejected calls to withdraw BIP 110 as debate grew over Ordinals, Runes and other data-heavy uses. Supporters argue that such activity increases storage demands and moves Bitcoin away from peer-to-peer money.
Saylor calls for slower change at Bitcoin’s base layer Saylor’s latest comments fit his broader view that Bitcoin should change cautiously. He has argued that the network’s value comes from predictable rules rather than frequent feature changes. His BIP 110 critique says policy tools, pruning, fee pricing and second-layer development offer alternatives for managing resource use without changing consensus.
The dispute also tests how Bitcoin reaches agreement when developers, miners, node operators and users disagree. As reported by crypto.news, Saylor described Bitcoin as a network where capital, node activity and mining power remain in balance. His latest position places neutrality at the center of that debate while BIP 110 moves toward its activation window.
AI hot stocks like NVIDIA have seen increased volatility, with their relative volatility standing at 4 times that of the S&P 500 index.
The Kobeissi Letter stated in a post that the three-week volatility of U.S. momentum stocks relative to the S&P 500 index has surged to four times, hitting an all-time high. This ratio has more than quadrupled over the past several weeks. The momentum stock group includes high-growth tech stocks at the center of the AI boom, such as NVIDIA, AMD, Palantir, D-Wave Quantum, and CoreWeave. By comparison, the ratio peaked at around 2 times during the 2020 COVID-19 market crash and roughly 1.8 times during the dot-com bubble burst. The current level is significantly higher than those periods. Meanwhile, the U.S. momentum stock index has dropped 24% since July, marking its largest monthly decline since the 2008 financial crisis. The stocks that previously performed the strongest are quickly losing market favor.
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Changxin Technology's IPO winning numbers have been released, totaling 7,702,207.
According to an announcement by Changxin Technology, the company’s initial public offering (IPO) and listing on the STAR Market has released its offline preliminary placement results and online lottery results. The offering price is RMB 8.66 per share, with an initial share offering size of approximately 6.688 billion shares. A total of 7,702,207 winning lottery numbers have been issued, and each winning number entitles holders to subscribe for 500 Changxin Technology A-shares.
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Binance Wallet’s Meme Rush adds new launchpad filter options for Robinhood Chain-based projects including Virtuals Protocol, Flap, and Bankr.
According to official announcements, Binance Wallet’s Meme Rush has added new launchpad filter options for Robinhood chain projects including Virtuals Protocol, Flap, and Bankr, helping users discover more on-chain token opportunities. Users can now track tokens across BSC, Solana, ETH, Base, and Robinhood chains via Meme Rush, with a single feed to stay updated on multi-chain hotspots.
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Zcash launches Zakura full node, aiming to boost its privacy transaction throughput to 50,000 per second.
Zcash has launched its new full-node client Zakura 1.0.0, the first implementation component aimed at scaling its private transaction throughput from the current ~1 transaction per second (TPS) to payment-network-level capacity. Maintained by Sean Bowe, an early Zcash zero-knowledge cryptography contributor, and Dev Ojha, head of Valar Group, the client operates independently of the Zcash Foundation and is funded via private ZEC donations. Built on the Zcash Foundation’s Zebra client, the team provides an ~11GB blockchain snapshot, allowing new nodes to sync up in two minutes—an approximately 680x speed improvement. Its compatibility mode also replicates the legacy zcashd interface, enabling wallets and exchanges to continue operating after the original client’s maintenance ends on July 18. The team notes that Visa and Mastercard process over 50,000 transactions per second, a benchmark it has set as its minimum target. To reduce the verification burden of large-scale private transactions, Bowe’s Tachyon project is developing recursive proofs, which let nodes validate thousands of proofs with a single proof. Valar Group is building private information retrieval (PIR) technology, allowing wallets to access relevant transaction data without exposing their query content. Zakura is also testing a fast block propagation system that delivers new blocks to all nodes in half a second. Its upcoming testnet is the Ironwood upgrade, set to activate on the mainnet on July 28. Ironwood will use a "rotating door" mechanism to restrict inflows and outflows of the Orchard privacy pool, mitigating risks of fake ZEC entering circulation due to prior zero-knowledge proof vulnerabilities.
9 minutes ago
Moonshot (Kimi)’s technological breakthrough triggers sell-offs in AI stocks, with leveraged products amplifying market volatility.
According to Bloomberg, Chinese AI startup Moonshot has achieved an unexpected technological breakthrough, triggering sharp declines in global AI and semiconductor stocks on Friday and prompting markets to once again reference the 2025 "DeepSeek Moment". The semiconductor benchmark index has fallen roughly 20% from its June peak, entering a bear market; the triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF SOXL has dropped more than 50% over the same period. This sell-off demonstrates that when rapid advances in AI technology reshape market perceptions of winners and losers, leveraged ETFs, options, single-stock funds, and crypto-related products may be liquidated simultaneously. Bloomberg Intelligence data shows leveraged ETFs make up around 13% of U.S. ETF trading volume but only 1.2% of industry assets. When accounting for embedded leverage, their share of the U.S. stock market remains less than 1%. While these products are generally small in overall size, their holdings are concentrated in AI chips, volatile stocks, and newly listed firms. When leverage, concentration, and volatility rise at the same time, the funds' daily rebalancing turns them into active trading forces that further amplify existing market trends. The South Korean market offers a clear recent case: local retail investors have heavily purchased leveraged products tied to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and as market sentiment turned weak, the related funds were forced to sell an estimated tens of billions of dollars worth of SK Hynix positions.
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Mizuho downgrades Circle to Underperform, cuts its target price to $50
According to Bloomberg, Circle’s stock price has fallen more than 75% from its post-IPO high last year. Dan Dolev, an analyst at Mizuho Securities USA, downgraded Circle this week from "Neutral" to "Underperform", setting a Wall Street-low target price of $50, which implies roughly 18% downside from Thursday’s closing price, well below the average analyst target of $123 tracked by Bloomberg. Dolev argues Circle faces rising competition risks in the stablecoin space. Over 100 fintech firms, payment networks, crypto companies and banks, including Visa, Stripe, Coinbase and BlackRock, are backing the Open Standard project, which will issue OUSD. Circle’s stock fell 7.7% on Thursday, the same day Visa launched a stablecoin issuance, transfer and management platform for financial institutions. Circle generates most of its revenue from interest on USDC’s reserve assets, while new stablecoin initiatives like OUSD plan to share reserve returns with partners and charge lower management fees. Dolev says this business model could draw partners away from Circle, intensifying pricing and margin pressure on the firm. He projects Circle’s adjusted EBITDA for 2027 will hit $699 million, below the consensus market estimate of $907 million. He also noted that Circle and Coinbase’s USDC distribution agreement is set to be renegotiated in August, with Coinbase likely to leverage competitive pressure from OUSD to secure a higher revenue split.
PANews July 19 news, crypto trader Doctor Profit posted that he has closed all cryptocurrency short positions. Including Bitcoin shorts established in the $115,000–$125,000 range, another Bitcoin short established in the $79,000–$82,000 range, and over 100 altcoin shorts opened over the past few months, stating that all the above positions were profitable. At the same time, he has re-entered spot Bitcoin at $64,000. As long as BTC remains within the $54,000–$64,000 range, he will buy spot daily with 5% of allocated funds (executed for up to 20 days); if the price approaches $54,000, he will increase buying intensity.
Doctor Profit believes that the behavior of most people waiting for September–October as the bottom of the four-year cycle is “herd behavior,” and the bottom may arrive early and will not give those waiting a perfect low. Furthermore, the Clarity Act, tokenization infrastructure, institutional adoption, large institutional capital inflows, and so on—the macro environment has fundamentally changed. Regarding U.S. stocks, Doctor Profit has retained all short positions in the S&P 500 index. He believes that Bitcoin and the stock market are not the same trade, and they are in different cycle phases. The crypto bear market began in October 2025 and lasted nine months, while the stock market remained firm throughout. Cryptocurrency prices have been repriced, while the stock market remains overvalued.
Someone with very deep pockets just made a very loud bet on Ethereum. Whale wallets sold 72 Bitcoin and immediately plowed into a 20x leveraged long position on 12,000 ETH, a trade that screams conviction about where they think ETH is headed relative to BTC.
The activity, flagged on Hypurrscan, points to Hyperliquid as the likely venue for these trades. For a platform that has become the go-to destination for high-leverage perpetual futures, this kind of size is notable but not entirely surprising. What makes it interesting is the directional clarity: this isn’t a hedge. It’s a rotation.
Breaking down the trade A whale, or possibly a cluster of related wallets, liquidated 72 BTC and redeployed that capital into a 20x leveraged long position on 12,000 ETH. For every dollar of actual collateral they put up, they’re controlling twenty dollars’ worth of Ethereum exposure.
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A 20x position means the liquidation threshold sits somewhere around a 3-5% adverse price move. If ETH drops by that margin from the entry price, the entire position gets wiped.
The size matters too. 12,000 ETH worth of exposure at 20x leverage represents a notional position that could meaningfully shift open interest in ETH perpetual futures on Hyperliquid. When positions this large enter the market, they tend to influence funding rates, which in turn can create incentive structures that pull other traders in the same direction.
The BTC-to-ETH rotation playbook On-chain analytics firms like Lookonchain have been tracking similar rotations throughout 2025, where large holders dump BTC to finance leveraged ETH positions, or occasionally do the reverse.
The pattern typically emerges when whale traders believe the ETH/BTC ratio is about to shift. Rather than simply going long on Ethereum, they actively sell Bitcoin to fund the trade, which creates selling pressure on BTC while simultaneously adding buying pressure (via leverage) on ETH.
What this means for investors The immediate impact is on funding rates. When large leveraged longs enter the perpetual futures market, they push funding rates positive, meaning long holders pay short holders to maintain their positions.
The second-order effect is on liquidation cascades. A 20x leveraged position on 12,000 ETH is a big target. If the price moves against the whale, the forced liquidation would dump a substantial amount of sell pressure into the market all at once, potentially triggering a chain reaction that catches other leveraged longs in the blast radius.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
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As Hyperliquid (HYPE) continues to make waves in the crypto market, pulling strong price moves and impressive network activity, the altcoin has finally outpaced XRP in the derivatives market.
Latest data from Coinglass shows that HYPE has overtaken XRP in crypto futures open interest, claiming the fourth largest open interest, a position previously held by XRP.
HYPE OI hits $1.45 billion The data shows that HYPE now has a massive $1.45 billion in futures open interest, surpassing XRP, which is currently sitting at $1.12 billion.
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While open interest typically measures the total value of active futures contracts that have yet to be settled on a specific crypto asset, Hyperliquid now ranking in fourth place behind only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana suggests that futures traders are largely betting on the asset instead of XRP.
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Simply put, crypto futures traders are strongly participating in Hyperliquid, and its derivatives market is rapidly gaining traction over XRP.
Hyperliquid Vs XRPIt is important to note that Hyperliquid has flipped XRP in open interest despite HYPE slipping 1.28% over the past 24 hours to around $59.24.
Meanwhile, XRP has surged modestly by 1.26% to about $1.09, suggesting that XRP is currently pulling stronger moves than HYPE in the spot market.
Nonetheless, the mild surge in XRP's trading price was not enough to keep it ahead in the futures rankings. Regardless, XRP still remains ahead of HYPE in the broader crypto market, maintaining its position as the fourth largest crypto asset by market capitalization.
Bitcoin governance debates are heating up again, and this time Michael Saylor has entered the conversation with a lengthy critique of BIP 110. Rather than focusing on price or market cycles, Saylor argues the proposal could fundamentally change how Bitcoin evolves by introducing consensus rules that restrict currently valid transactions.
His argument isn’t that every inscription or non-financial application deserves protection. Instead, it’s that Bitcoin’s consensus layer shouldn’t be used to decide which legitimate, fee-paying transactions are acceptable.
Saylor Questions Consensus Rule ChangesSourceBIP 110, known as the Reduced Data Temporary Softfork, proposes introducing several temporary consensus restrictions for roughly one year. According to Saylor, the proposal would limit multiple transaction and scripting features while deploying through a modified activation process that lowers the miner signaling threshold compared to previous Bitcoin soft forks.
Although existing UTXOs created before activation would remain unaffected, Saylor argues the proposal would still remove transaction functionality currently considered valid and establish a precedent for restricting future use cases through consensus rather than market forces.
He repeatedly stresses that his criticism targets the proposal itself rather than its authors, acknowledging that supporters are attempting to address genuine concerns around node costs, transaction efficiency, and Bitcoin’s role as sound money.
Neutral Rules Versus Protocol RestrictionsA central theme throughout Saylor’s memo is Bitcoin’s principle of neutrality. According to him, Bitcoin cannot distinguish whether transaction data represents an image, authentication record, financial settlement, proof, contract, or future application. Because of that limitation, he argues consensus rules should remain content-neutral rather than restricting technical structures that may serve multiple legitimate purposes.
Saylor also questions whether BIP 110 sufficiently demonstrates measurable benefits. His memo argues the proposal does not quantify expected improvements in decentralization, node costs, payment fees, or network efficiency before recommending changes to consensus.
Instead, he suggests resource pricing, relay policies, mining policies, pruning, and Layer-2 development remain more appropriate mechanisms for managing network resource consumption without modifying Bitcoin’s base consensus rules.
Governance Debate Takes Center StageThe memo also raises concerns over BIP 110’s proposed deployment process, particularly its lower signaling threshold and temporary consensus rules.
Michael Saylor argues protocol changes should emerge only through overwhelming agreement among developers, miners, node operators, exchanges, businesses, custodians, and holders. He warns that using consensus to discourage one category of valid transactions today could create governance precedents for restricting other applications in the future.
Ultimately, Loading profile preview concludes that Bitcoin’s long-term strength comes from neutral rules, permissionless innovation, and broad consensus rather than defining acceptable transaction purposes through protocol changes.
Story Ends Here
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As Bitcoin continues to show mixed price action, the leading crypto asset has just flashed a signal that has previously appeared near the end of bear markets.
On Saturday, July 18, crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant shared onchain data suggesting that the current market downturn may be entering its final phase.
Bitcoin bear season nears end The analyst shared charts revealing the cost basis of Bitcoin's short-term holder wallets that have held Bitcoin for less than six months and long-term holders, which have held the asset for more than six months.
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The analyst noted that coins that have remained untouched for over seven years are excluded from the LTH cost basis to better reflect active long-term investors.
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With Bitcoin maintaining a consistent downward trajectory for the past nine months, the data shows that the short-term holder cost basis has now fallen below that of long-term holders.
Apparently, such a market condition is widely considered as an "end-of-bear-market" signal, according to market analysts.
Bitcoin at bottom level?While traders are mostly curious about whether Bitcoin has reached its bottom yet, it is important to note that the crossover between the STH and LTH cost basis does not mean Bitcoin has already found its bottom or that a new bull market has begun.
Rather, the onchain metric suggests that the market could be entering the final stage of the current bear cycle.
Notably, Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis has fallen from $112,500 to around $69,000. This implies that recent buyers have continued to buy Bitcoin at lower prices throughout the downturn, positioning the asset for a potential flip in market sentiment.
Bitcoin seems frozen for several sessions. However, far from spot charts, institutional investors are increasing bets on the derivatives market. An unusual concentration of very short-term positions reveals that operators are preparing for an event likely to tip the market. Behind this turmoil, price levels that professionals watch before the next U.S. monetary deadlines already emerge.
In brief The derivatives market is massively active while Bitcoin price consolidates under $64,000. Crypto whales have opened 40,000 option contracts on the Deribit platform. Flows target a moderate increase in Bitcoin by the end of July 2026. Professional investors optimize their costs by voluntarily capping their gains. Massive blocks of option flows recorded on Deribit The crypto derivatives market has just been the scene of institutional activity of a scale rarely matched in recent months, targeting a moderate price increase by the end of July. Thus, the precise structure of these major transactions unfolds through particularly rigorous numerical data :
The total volume of orders : the simultaneous purchase of 20,000 call option contracts with a strike price set at $70,000 expiring on July 31 ; The associated hedge position : the sale of an identical number of 20,000 contracts at the strike price of $72,000 for the same expiry date ; A total of block flows : a cross transaction representing an overall volume of 40,000 open contracts. Asked about the nature of these major flows, Jean-David Péquignot, commercial director of the Deribit options exchange, stated: “This week, we observed large blocks on bullish BTC call spreads.”
The technical structure of the bull call spread facing volatility The financial configuration chosen by these economic operators exactly matches a “bull call spread”, an options strategy designed to optimize yields in a moderate upward scenario while drastically limiting initial costs. By buying the option at the lower strike of $70,000 and simultaneously selling the option at the higher strike of $72,000, bitcoin traders finance part of their purchase premium through the premium received on the resale.
This technical choice however involves an explicit renunciation of gains beyond the $72,000 level, with the maximum profit strictly capped at this threshold. Such a financial behavior, characterized by option purchases about 10% out of the money, reflects a cautious and measured buy-on-dip approach, far from speculative euphoria anticipating an immediate new all-time high.
Internal risk management by investors revolves around the entry cost and mitigation of time decay in contracts. This structure allows professional investors to minimize the impact of implied volatility if the crypto price stagnates or undergoes a correction lower before the end of July.
Moreover, unlike a simple call option purchase, exposure to unexpected spot market fluctuations is cushioned by the selling position at $72,000 for bitcoin, offering relative protection while maximizing the marginal capital efficiency deployed. The predominance of this combination indicates that capital targets a very narrow pivot zone to realize their short-term gains.
The Fed’s macroeconomic deadline The timing of this contractual setup is no coincidence as it aligns directly with the U.S. macroeconomic calendar, with the July 31 expiry taking place just forty-eight hours after the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting scheduled for July 29. Investors adjust their crypto portfolios based on the recent slowdown of inflation in the United States, marked by the latest releases of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which have significantly eased fears of monetary tightening.
Data from the Fed funds futures market currently indicate an overwhelming 75% to 80% probability supporting the central bank’s maintenance of current interest rates at this July session. It is therefore the potential adoption of flexible rates by monetary officials that acts as the expected catalyst to propel the price towards the defined target.
While prospects of a Fed status quo support the thesis of a technical rebound of the bitcoin price towards the $72,000 mark, the real price evolution will depend on market makers’ ability to absorb the hedging pressure as the strike price of $70,000 approaches. However, a nuanced analysis requires recalling that a firmer-than-expected central bank speech or a surprise resurgence of inflationary pressures would instantly invalidate this bullish scenario.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
The geopolitical tensions stepped up on Saturday with the US forces again launching fresh military strikes against Iran. The retaliation came despite Tehran’s threat to orchastrate a “full-scale war” in the Middle East. As a result, oil and energy prices soared as Strait of Hormuz traffic remained blocked.
US Continues Strikes Against Iran Despite Warning The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has confirmed that the U.S. military attacked several military sites in Iran. The strike targeted surveillance installations, logistics infrastructure, underground weapons storage areas and marine assets related to Iran’s military activities.
These latest attacks were the culmination of a week of rising military violence. U.S. planes have been bombing for seven consecutive nights. It included bridges in the vicinity of Bandar Abbas, where the Iranian Navy operates its main bases on the Persian Gulf.
However, two Americans were killed in the fighting on Friday and one is still missing, CENTCOM also said.
Meanwhile, Iran retaliated with attacks against its U.S. allies in the area. Kuwaiti authorities reported that a power station and two water distillation stations were hit by the Iranian attacks, along with an oil facility. Officials also said that they had injuries.
Jordan has intercepted 10 Iranian missiles overnight before they hit their targets, according to the military. Bahrain also announced that its air defenses successfully stopped incoming Iranian attacks. Iranian leaders continued to raise their rhetoric.
Supreme Leader’s aide Major-General Mohsen Rezaei threatened Iran would expand its military assault in response to U.S. strikes. “Iran will no longer limit itself to retaliatory, like-for-like responses… and no political border will be safe,” Rezaei said, according to Iranian media.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday night called Washington’s actions a breach of the previous ceasefire agreement. In a written statement, he said America’s “repeated breaches” had exposed “a fundamental truth: the signature of the US president is utterly worthless and devoid of credibility.” He also described the recent developments as a “dark episode of criminality and broken promises.”
The new round of the unprovoked escalation comes after an earlier truce agreement broke down in mid-June. The pact would have left room for peace talks to lead to a calmed, non-permanent resolution. But negotiations stalled and US President Donald Trump announced July 8 that the deal was over. Later the United States reimposed a blockade of Iranian ports and Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed.
How Did Financial Markets React? The escalating tensions in the energy markets had a strong response. Crude oil rose 4.48% to $82.49 a barrel on Saturday. This was coming on the heels of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital shipping route. This led to fear of global supplies of oil and increased fuel prices.
On the other hand, the crypto market remained relatively stable. Bitcoin price stood at $64,443.88, up by 1.2% at press time on Saturday. The recovery in BTC’s value came as the GENIUS Act, the US stablecoin bill, completed one year. Now, the crypto market is awaiting the CLARITY Act to enter a Senate floor vote soon.
For those looking for crypto trading, check out our page on Best Crypto Exchange & Apps.
Bitcoin continues to experience mixed price action, with the leading cryptocurrency now flashing a signal that has historically appeared near the end of major bear markets.
Onchain indicators spark discussionOn Saturday, July 18, CryptoQuant, a prominent crypto analytics platform known for providing onchain data insights, published new metrics suggesting that Bitcoin’s ongoing downturn could be moving into its final phase.
CryptoQuant analysts presented recent charts tracking the cost basis of wallets classified as short-term and long-term holders. Short-term holders (STH) refer to addresses that have held their Bitcoin for less than six months, while long-term holders (LTH) are those with holding periods exceeding six months.
In an effort to more accurately represent active long-term participants, the analysis excluded coins dormant for over seven years from the LTH cost basis calculation. This adjustment is intended to focus the data on those who may realistically participate in future market activity.
The findings reveal that Bitcoin has maintained a steady downward trajectory over the past nine months. Amid this decline, the STH cost basis has now dropped below the LTH cost basis, a pattern that market analysts often see as an indicator of waning bearish momentum.
Mini dictionary: Cost basis — For Bitcoin holders, the cost basis is the average price at which a coin was acquired. Tracking cost basis across short-term and long-term holders can help analysts assess market sentiment and the stages of price cycles.
Bear market signal debatedAnalysts state that this specific cost basis crossover frequently occurs near the conclusion of bear markets. However, they also caution that the present crossover does not confirm that Bitcoin has reached its lowest price or that a new bull market is imminent.
Instead, the onchain metric points to the possibility that the market is entering the final stages of the current bear cycle. The cost basis trend offers insights but doesn’t provide definitive market turning points.
While the short-term holder cost basis crossing below the long-term level has coincided with the end of bear markets in the past, it does not guarantee that Bitcoin has hit its bottom or that an immediate reversal is underway. The metric signals the market may be approaching the last phase of the downturn.
Recent market shifts and outlookAccording to CryptoQuant’s data, the short-term holder cost basis has declined from $112,500 to roughly $69,000. This drop suggests that recent buyers have been acquiring Bitcoin at progressively lower prices, even as the downturn continues.
Such consistent buying during falling prices may increase the likelihood of a sentiment reversal, as newer market participants position themselves for a potential recovery.
Nonetheless, market participants remain cautious about declaring any definitive shift, keeping a close watch on broader trading patterns and other related onchain signals to confirm whether the bear cycle’s end is near.
MetricPrevious ValueCurrent ValueShort-term holder cost basis$112,500$69,000Long-term holder cost basisAbove STHBelow STHDisclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
18 July 2026 | 22:05 Bitcoin’s market value is rising faster than visible network adoption, shifting attention toward corporate demand, AI-driven portfolio rotation and a macro backdrop shaped by cooler inflation and persistent fiscal deficits.
Key Takeaways Bitcoin’s Metcalfe Ratio near 3.23 suggests its valuation is rising faster than the network activity measured by the model. Corporate and institutional purchases can bring substantial capital into Bitcoin without producing an equal increase in active addresses or transactions. Michael Saylor sees corporate adoption as necessary for Bitcoin to develop into a global monetary network. Jordi Visser argues that Bitcoin is less exposed than traditional companies to competitive disruption from artificial intelligence. Cooler inflation and persistent U.S. fiscal deficits strengthen the macro case, but durable demand still needs to justify the valuation gap. Bitcoin’s Valuation Is Moving Faster Than Its Network João Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, summarized the signal directly: Bitcoin’s valuation is outpacing network adoption.
The Metcalfe Ratio attempts to compare Bitcoin’s market value with activity across its network. A reading near 3.23 does not provide a precise estimate of fair value, but it indicates that market capitalization has increased more quickly than the adoption measure underlying the model.
Alphractal’s official API documentation lists the Metcalfe Ratio among its Bitcoin market indicators, alongside separate measures for network maturity, adoption and valuation.
The ratio remains a model-specific signal rather than a universally accepted measure of Bitcoin’s fair value. Its interpretation depends on the network inputs, historical relationships and methodology used to construct it.
That distinction matters. A rising price accompanied by equally strong network growth suggests that economic activity is expanding alongside valuation. When price moves much faster, the market is paying in advance for adoption that has not yet appeared in the same proportion.
The strongest conclusion is therefore narrower than declaring Bitcoin overvalued. The chart shows that the demand supporting the current market capitalization is not being matched by the same rate of growth in the onchain activity measured by Alphractal’s model.
Corporate Demand May Not Appear in Onchain Adoption Onchain activity and economic adoption are no longer interchangeable.
A new self-custody user may create an address and generate transactions that appear directly in network data. A company, exchange-traded product or institutional investor can acquire a much larger position through a custodian while producing relatively little identifiable activity on Bitcoin’s base layer.
The same compression occurs when thousands of investors gain exposure through one investment vehicle. Their capital remains economically relevant to Bitcoin, but it may be represented onchain by only a small number of consolidated wallets and transactions.
Michael Saylor’s corporate-adoption argument connects with the Alphractal signal.
Saylor argues that companies allow people and capital to organize under a legal structure with greater scale, continuity, transparency and access to credit. For Bitcoin to succeed as a global monetary network, he wrote, corporate adoption is “necessary, inevitable, and welcome.”
Companies enable people to organize under law around a shared mission with greater efficiency, transparency, creditworthiness, scale, resilience, and continuity.
For Bitcoin to succeed as a global monetary network, corporate adoption is necessary, inevitable, and welcome.
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) July 18, 2026
The argument is that companies can move Bitcoin beyond a market driven primarily by individual ownership. Corporations can raise money, issue securities, access credit and maintain acquisition strategies at a scale that most individual buyers cannot reproduce.
That may help explain how Bitcoin’s market value can rise faster than conventional network indicators. One large corporate purchase can introduce more capital than thousands of small onchain users while creating far less visible activity.
It does not make the Metcalfe divergence irrelevant.
Corporate demand is more concentrated than broad user adoption and can depend on financing conditions, executive decisions, shareholder support and access to capital markets. A small number of large buyers can have a powerful effect while they are accumulating, but the market also becomes more sensitive to any slowdown in their purchases.
Saylor’s position is therefore a thesis rather than proof that the valuation gap has already been justified. Corporate adoption could provide the missing demand, but companies must continue allocating real capital for that explanation to hold.
Why Visser Thinks AI Changes the Bitcoin Comparison In a recent discussion with Anthony Pompliano on The Pomp Podcast, Jordi Visser approached the same market from a different direction.
Visser is a veteran macro investor with more than 30 years of experience. His longer-term Bitcoin thesis is built partly around the effect artificial intelligence could have on public companies and traditional business models.
AI may increase productivity, but it can also weaken the competitive advantages on which corporate valuations depend. Software can be replicated, operating costs can collapse, products can become easier to reproduce and established industries can be reorganized by new competitors.
Bitcoin does not operate like a conventional company. It has no management team, profit margins or commercial business model for an AI competitor to disrupt.
For Visser, that makes Bitcoin the only asset whose competitive “moat” he does not have to worry about AI attacking.
The argument does not mean Bitcoin is protected from market risk. Its price can still fall because of leverage, liquidity, regulation, changing investor demand or broader risk reduction. Visser’s point is more specific: technological disruption that damages a company’s expected earnings does not attack Bitcoin through the same channel.
That distinction became more important during the recent unwinding of leveraged positions in AI-related stocks.
Using the volatility figures cited in the discussion, Visser said volatility in the broader AI thematic trade had moved toward 100, while Bitcoin volatility remained near 30. On a simple volatility-adjusted basis, that would theoretically allow a portfolio to hold roughly three times more Bitcoin exposure than AI exposure without increasing its measured volatility.
The comparison should not be treated as a portfolio recommendation. Volatility scaling does not fully account for sudden drawdowns, liquidity conditions, changing correlations or the possibility that historical relationships break during a market shock.
It nevertheless supports a broader observation. Bitcoin became comparatively easier to hold while another major speculative theme was being deleveraged.
That relative resilience could attract investors searching for a new source of market exposure after the sharp rise in AI-related volatility. Visser said he remained considerably more heavily weighted toward crypto than toward the semiconductor positions he had recently begun rebuilding.
His crypto exposure consisted of Bitcoin, Ethereum and shares in Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy.
Cooler Inflation Improves the Short-Term Backdrop The immediate macro environment has also become less hostile.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% in June, its largest monthly decline since April 2020. Energy prices fell 5.7% and were the largest contributor to the drop.
Headline inflation remained at 3.5% over the previous 12 months, while the index excluding food and energy was unchanged in June and increased 2.6% over the year.
Visser interpreted the report as evidence that inflation may become less important to financial markets during the remainder of the year. The softer reading also reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to raise interest rates again, which he views as positive for crypto and the broader debasement trade.
That interpretation goes beyond what the official data alone can establish. One monthly decline does not guarantee that inflation has been defeated, particularly when much of the drop came from energy prices that can reverse quickly.
The Federal Reserve also remains more cautious. At its June meeting, the central bank maintained the federal funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% and continued to describe inflation as elevated relative to its 2% goal.
Bitcoin’s relative stability during the recent momentum unwind was encouraging for Visser, but he acknowledged that crypto prices had not yet reflected the full potential benefit of falling rate-hike expectations.
That leaves the short-term case supportive but incomplete. Cooler inflation removes one source of pressure, but it does not automatically create the sustained buying needed to close the gap between Bitcoin’s valuation and visible network adoption.
The Fiscal Deficit Is the Longer-Term Anchor The deeper foundation of Visser’s crypto position is not one inflation report or one Federal Reserve decision. It is the structural U.S. fiscal deficit.
The Congressional Budget Office projects a federal deficit of approximately $1.9 trillion in fiscal 2026, equal to 5.8% of gross domestic product.
Federal outlays are projected to reach 23.3% of GDP, compared with revenues equal to 17.5%. Debt held by the public is expected to reach 101% of GDP during the year and continue rising over the following decade.
That persistent gap is the basis of the debasement argument.
Large deficits do not produce an automatic or immediate increase in Bitcoin’s price. They do, however, require continued government borrowing and contribute to concerns about debt sustainability and the long-term purchasing power of government-issued currencies.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply allows investors to express those concerns through an asset outside the conventional monetary system.
Visser’s position is therefore not that each new deficit dollar flows directly into crypto. It is that persistent fiscal expansion creates a continuing reason for corporations, institutions and macro investors to seek assets whose supply cannot be increased in response to government financing needs.
That long-term argument also helps connect his view with Saylor’s.
Visser explains why investors may want a scarce monetary asset. Saylor explains how companies and financial structures could channel capital into it at scale.
Together, their arguments raise the question at the center of the current market: can corporate and institutional capital validate a Bitcoin price that has already moved ahead of visible onchain adoption?
Bitcoin Is Pricing In a Different Kind of Adoption Metcalfe Ratio near 3.23 Suggests: Bitcoin’s valuation has expanded faster than the network activity measured by Alphractal’s model.
Does Not Prove: That Bitcoin has a precise fair value or is necessarily in a speculative bubble.
Saylor’s corporate thesis Suggests: Companies could bring large-scale capital, credit access and organizational continuity into Bitcoin.
Does Not Prove: That corporations will continue buying at every price or under all financing conditions.
Visser’s AI thesis Suggests: Bitcoin is not exposed to competitive AI disruption through the same earnings and business-model channels as public companies.
Does Not Prove: That Bitcoin is protected from volatility, liquidity shocks or falling investor demand.
Inflation and fiscal conditions Suggests: Lower rate-hike pressure and persistent deficits may support demand for scarce assets outside the traditional monetary system.
Does Not Prove: The timing, scale or durability of future capital flows into Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s price is effectively betting that adoption is changing shape.
The onchain data says valuation has moved ahead of the activity visible in Alphractal’s model. Saylor argues that companies can provide the capital, scale and continuity required to extend Bitcoin’s monetary network, while Visser explains why AI disruption and persistent fiscal deficits could give portfolios a reason to make that allocation.
The thesis remains conditional.
If corporate and institutional demand continues to expand, the gap between valuation and network activity may reflect adoption migrating into custodial products, corporate balance sheets and concentrated investment vehicles.
In that scenario, conventional onchain indicators would still describe an important part of the network, but they would capture only part of the capital supporting Bitcoin’s market value.
If those flows weaken while network activity remains subdued, the same divergence becomes harder to defend. Bitcoin would then rely increasingly on speculation and expectations of future demand rather than adoption already taking place.
The next test is therefore not only whether more people transact directly on Bitcoin. It is whether corporations, funds and macro investors can turn a less visible form of adoption into durable demand.
The price is already anticipating that transition. The capital now has to confirm it.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
Author
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
Wellington-Altus Chief Market Strategist James E. Thorne argued that the main issue facing Bitcoin is not volatility, but its “absolute scarcity” characteristic, which investors have not yet fully priced in.
Thorne noted that in traditional financial circles, the view is frequently expressed that Bitcoin is too volatile to be included in the same portfolio as gold and large-cap corporate stocks. However, the strategist pointed out that drops of 30% to 40% in AI chip manufacturers and high-beta technology stocks are tolerated, and that even assets with a market capitalization exceeding $5 trillion can be considered basic investment vehicles.
Therefore, Thorne stated that volatility alone is not sufficient to exclude an asset from a portfolio, and that the real difference stems from asset class, regulatory structure, and political acceptance. He reminded that semiconductor companies are cash-generating stocks and can be easily included in technology-focused portfolios, while Bitcoin is a monetary asset that does not generate returns, is not tied to any state, and has a limited supply of 21 million units. According to Thorne, the “too volatile” label used for Bitcoin serves as a justification that masks the lack of sufficient regulatory and institutional authority for large investment firms.
He said that if the Clarity Act, currently under consideration in the US, explicitly recognizes and regulates digital assets, investment committees could consider Bitcoin a legitimate portfolio component rather than a compliance issue.
Thorne stated that Bitcoin’s valuation potential would be clearer if regulatory obstacles were removed, arguing that Bitcoin doesn’t need to reach gold’s market capitalization. He suggested that even if Bitcoin only approached Nvidia’s current market capitalization, its unit price could reach approximately $240,000 to $250,000.
Thorne predicted that if Bitcoin were to reach the same market capitalization as gold, its price could rise to between $1.5 million and $1.8 million. He stated that these scenarios are based on Bitcoin’s limited supply, a decrease in the effective supply in circulation, and the normalization of institutional access.
Noting that markets have accepted the sharp fluctuations in AI companies reaching multi-trillion-dollar valuations, Thorne argued that the view that volatility should keep Bitcoin’s value well below these levels stems from monetary and political preferences rather than a genuine risk analysis.
*This is not investment advice.
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Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, stated that corporate adoption of Bitcoin is both necessary and inevitable for the cryptocurrency’s growth as a global monetary network. His comments come amid a significant increase in the amount of Bitcoin held by public companies worldwide.
Corporate adoption reshapes Bitcoin’s futureSaylor argued that companies provide the legal and organizational framework for advancing shared missions efficiently and transparently. In his view, the involvement of businesses lends Bitcoin critical advantages such as scale, legal protection, and operational continuity.
He described companies as structures that enable people to work together under established laws, which supports broader economic activities and integration within the global financial system.
Companies enable people to organize under law around a shared mission with greater efficiency, transparency, creditworthiness, scale, resilience, and continuity. For Bitcoin to succeed as a global monetary network, corporate adoption is necessary, inevitable, and welcome.
Strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, has played a key role in corporate Bitcoin accumulation. Its persistent buying has sparked ongoing conversations in boardrooms about the use of Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
Saylor emphasized that public companies can raise capital, follow regulatory reporting, and operate under legal frameworks, making them well-positioned to contribute to Bitcoin’s long-term stability and growth.
Public company holdings reach all-time highMarket observers reported a dramatic rise in Bitcoin held by public companies. In 2020, these firms collectively held about 3,000 BTC, valued at roughly $30 million at the time.
As of now, public companies reportedly possess over 1.2 million BTC, marking a significant jump within six years.
Imagine reading this headline in 2020: “Public companies now own over 1.2 million Bitcoin.” At the time, such a milestone seemed impossible. Back then, their combined holdings stood at only 3,000 BTC, valued near $30 million.
The current valuation of these corporate Bitcoin reserves is estimated at approximately $80 billion, reflecting an approximate 400-fold increase in coin holdings and a more than 266,000% surge in dollar terms.
YearPublic Company BTC HoldingsEstimated Value20203,000 BTC$30 million20261,200,000 BTC$80 billionThis surge signals a fundamental shift in how corporations view Bitcoin, increasingly treating it as a strategic reserve asset on their balance sheets. The trend has developed alongside periods of market volatility, showing a consistent expansion in corporate BTC exposure.
Bitcoin treasury strategies gain tractionThe conversation around Bitcoin at the corporate level has broadened, now focusing on its use as a long-term treasury asset rather than just short-term speculation.
A growing number of public companies are adding Bitcoin to their reserves, considering it alongside other assets in corporate treasuries. Advocates argue this gives firms exposure to potential gains while helping diversify assets.
Despite the benefits, adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset requires navigating accounting, regulatory requirements, and volatility, often making it a high-level decision for company boards.
The increase from 3,000 BTC to more than 1.2 million BTC signals a substantial evolution. Market analysts expect investors to continue tracking company filings and upcoming treasury actions involving Bitcoin.
Mini dictionary: Strategy is a US-based business intelligence firm formerly known as MicroStrategy. The company is renowned in the cryptocurrency industry for allocating large portions of its treasury into Bitcoin, influencing corporate adoption of digital assets.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Bitcoin’s institutional demand will come back stronger, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. The analyst noted that U.S. spot BTC ETFs could follow gold ETFs’ ‘triumph and pain’ pattern and would eventually surge to a new record high.
Gold ETFs were briefly the world’s largest ETF in 2011 but spent another eight years in a downtrend trying to reclaim the spot, added Balchunas.
It briefly reclaimed it again in 2024, and a similar ‘two steps forward, one step back’ could happen for BTC.
Bitcoin ETFs may be following the same script: spectacular gains, painful drawdowns and recoveries that may test investors’ patience
Source: Bloomberg Spot Bitcoin ETF still holding strong, but…The Bitcoin price has dropped by nearly half from over $126K to $64K. In May and June 2026, the spot BTC ETF outflows hit $7B as the crypto asset briefly slipped below $60K.
Even so, only 10% of spot BTC ETF holders are left, compared to a third of gold ETF investors, Balchunas highlighted.
Source: X Another positive sign that BTC could show resilience and try to defend $60K support was the long-term holder (LTH) supply. Although they have slowly reduced exposure in the past few weeks, this cohort was not net sellers yet.
According to Bitfinex analysts, BTC’s recent dip below $60K was due to deleveraging and ETF outflows as LTH conviction was still intact. But the analysts warned,
Their 30-day net position stayed positive as ETFs shed nearly $4bn in June. Flows have now turned positive three straight sessions. The risk is LTHs finally flipping to net sellers.
Source: Checkonchain/Bitfinex That said, amid renewed U.S-Iran escalations, the two safe havens have not seen strong investor interest, as seen earlier in the year. In the past three months, gold ETFs recorded about $11B outflows while spot BTC ETFs bled $6B. In other words, gold bled twice as much as BTC.
It’s unclear whether BTC will attract more capital and behave like a hedge if the West Asia crisis escalations extend into Q3.
However, the rising oil price above $80 coincided with Bitcoin [BTC]’s sideways structure below $65K, signalling that energy market shocks could still derail the crypto’s upside.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView Final Summary Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas projected U.S. Spot BTC ETFs will surge to a record high, citing gold’s past patterns In the meantime, rising oil prices could cap BTC’s upside potential amid renewed West Asia escalations
Gold took two decades to build its ETF empire. Bitcoin is trying to do it in two years.
That is the core observation from Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas, who argues that Bitcoin ETFs are on a trajectory that closely mirrors the arc of gold ETFs since their launch around 2004. The comparison is not just flattering for Bitcoin. It is also a warning label.
Balchunas points out that both Bitcoin and gold share a structural quirk that sets them apart from most investable assets: neither produces cash flows. That means price movement in both assets is almost entirely a function of investor sentiment.
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The numbers tell a striking story Gold ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares have been accumulating assets since roughly 2004, building to an AUM range of $160B to $235B over more than two decades. Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and have already pulled in over $38B in net inflows, with total estimated AUM approaching $120B.
Balchunas projects that if the current growth trajectory holds, Bitcoin ETFs could triple the AUM of gold ETFs within the next three to five years.
The engine driving that pace, according to Balchunas, is brokerage access. When Bitcoin ETFs trade on traditional platforms like any other ticker, the friction of managing private keys, seed phrases, and self-custody wallets simply disappears.
Gold’s history is not just a growth story Gold ETFs did not go straight up for 22 years. The asset experienced roughly 40% price drawdowns at certain points, and during one particularly rough stretch, about one-third of gold ETF assets exited within six months.
Balchunas is not burying it. His framing is that Bitcoin ETFs will likely go through similar cycles of sharp gains followed by painful contractions, and that investors who understand the gold playbook will be better positioned to hold through those periods rather than capitulate at the bottom.
What makes the gold comparison particularly apt is the regulatory arc. Gold ETFs spent years in approval limbo before finally launching in the US, and their eventual approval opened the door to a much broader base of institutional capital. Bitcoin ETFs followed a nearly identical pattern: years of SEC rejections, a landmark court ruling, and then a January 2024 launch that brought spot Bitcoin exposure to every brokerage account in America almost overnight.
What this means for investors watching Bitcoin ETFs The spot Bitcoin ETF market is already crowded, with products from BlackRock, Fidelity, and several other issuers competing for inflows. The dominance pattern in gold ETFs, where SPDR Gold Shares captured an outsized share of the market early and largely held it, may or may not repeat in Bitcoin.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
A unique on-chain indicator has emerged, suggesting the current Bitcoin bear market may be entering its final phase. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost spotted this indicator, which historically has signaled the approach of major recovery rallies in previous Bitcoin cycles.
On-chain signals point to transition phaseDespite recent selling pressure, Bitcoin has held above a critical support range, fueling optimism that the worst of the current bearish trend could soon be over. According to Darkfost, the signal appears when the cost basis for short-term holders (STH) drops below that of long-term holders (LTH) and continues at this lower level for at least three consecutive days.
The cost basis reflects the average price at which holders acquired their Bitcoin. Short-term holders typically refer to investors who have held their BTC for less than six months, while long-term holders have maintained their positions for over six months.
This scenario, says Darkfost, is rare and has often preceded the final stage of previous Bitcoin bear markets, laying the groundwork for potential bull runs that followed.
However, the analyst cautioned that the presence of this signal does not guarantee an immediate market reversal.
This indicator suggests Bitcoin might be in the last part of its bearish phase, but it does not mean a rapid shift to bullishness is certain.
Investment opportunities for DCA investorsDarkfost noted that the phase where the STH cost basis sits below the LTH cost basis has generally offered a favorable opportunity for investors using dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies, as Bitcoin is typically priced lower during these moments.
During the recent decline, new investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin, which has resulted in the short-term holders’ acquisition price falling from $112,500 to approximately $69,000. This drop triggered the rare on-chain crossover referenced by the analyst.
Mini dictionary: Dollar-cost averaging (DCA), a strategy where an investor divides up the total amount to be invested across periodic purchases of an asset to reduce the impact of volatility.
According to Darkfost, a breakout into a new bull market may not occur until new investors begin acquiring Bitcoin at higher prices than those paid by long-term holders, which historically has signaled renewed demand.
GroupCost Basis (Previous)Cost Basis (Current)Short-term holders (STH)$112,500$69,000Long-term holders (LTH)––Market resilience and technical outlookBitcoin has demonstrated resilience even amidst ongoing challenges. After declining to $57,747 about three weeks ago, the price rebounded and remained above the important $60,000 support level.
Market stability persisted even after Strategy, a digital asset firm, sold 3,588 BTC—valued at nearly $216 million—for dividend distributions.
The next major resistance level is identified at $67,248. A break above this threshold would offer a strong signal that the Bitcoin bear market has likely concluded and a bullish phase may begin.
Currently, Bitcoin trades at $64,141, with a 24-hour trading volume of $29.31 billion and a market capitalization of $1.29 trillion. CoinMarketCap data shows the price is up 1.63% over the last day.
Analysts monitor whether a sustained move above $67,248 could confirm the transition from a bear to a bull market for Bitcoin.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The US military launched a fresh wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations in and around the Strait of Hormuz, marking the seventh straight night of strikes following the collapse of a ceasefire agreement. Two US service members were killed in a retaliatory Iranian ballistic missile attack in Jordan, escalating a conflict that is now reverberating through global markets, crypto included.
Bitcoin dropped below $64,000 during the strikes, trading in a range around $62,800 to $63,800.
What happened US Central Command (CENTCOM) executed strikes on July 17-18, 2026, targeting surveillance systems, air defense mechanisms, missile infrastructure, and maritime assets in Iran’s Hormozgan province. The region sits along the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes on any given day.
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The military action followed the breakdown of a recent ceasefire on July 15. Since then, CENTCOM has struck Iranian positions every single night.
Iran responded with force. A ballistic missile strike hit US-linked targets in Jordan, killing two American service members on July 17. Tehran also launched assaults on Kuwaiti interests and other Gulf states while asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz. US forces have maintained that commercial shipping through the strait continues.
Why crypto cares about a war in the Middle East Bitcoin’s slide below $64,000 reflects a classic risk-off posture. Any sustained disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would send crude prices sharply higher. Rising oil prices feed into inflation expectations. Higher inflation expectations push rate-cut timelines further out.
Broader market sell-offs linked to the conflict have hit major tokens beyond Bitcoin as well. During the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Bitcoin dropped roughly 8% in a week before recovering.
What investors should be watching For crypto-specific positioning, the $62,800 level on Bitcoin is worth monitoring closely. Liquidation cascades in leveraged crypto markets can amplify downside moves well beyond what the underlying geopolitical news would justify on its own.
The loss of two US service members in Jordan also changes the political calculus in Washington. Traders should be prepared for the possibility that strikes intensify rather than wind down in the coming days.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Kevin Warsh has been running the Federal Reserve for barely two months, and he is already making clear that the central bank will not be rushed. The former Fed governor, sworn in as Chair on May 22, 2026, has reiterated his commitment to getting inflation back to 2% before entertaining rate cuts, even as oil markets swing and artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout drives new demand pressures.
The inflation calculus Warsh is working with At his inaugural Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 17, 2026, Warsh guided the committee to hold rates at approximately 3.6%. He signaled there was little room for near-term adjustment in either direction.
Then, in early July, his tone shifted slightly. Warsh acknowledged that inflation risks have come down, while making clear the 2% target remains non-negotiable.
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Two structural forces are making his job harder. First, oil prices remain elevated, complicated by the 2026 Iran conflict that injected fresh geopolitical risk into energy markets. When oil gets expensive, it bleeds into transportation costs, manufacturing, food supply chains, and eventually into the consumer price index that the Fed watches most closely.
Second, the AI buildout is not just a Silicon Valley story anymore. The energy consumption required to run large-scale AI infrastructure, from data centers to inference clusters, is adding a layer of demand to power grids and energy markets that did not exist at this scale even two years ago.
Why crypto markets are paying close attention Warsh’s carefully calibrated hawkish comments were followed by Bitcoin reclaiming the $60,000 level in July 2026. Ether, Solana, and Dogecoin also moved higher in the same window.
What makes Warsh a particularly unusual figure in this dynamic is his own disclosed financial history. His 2026 ethics filings revealed prior stakes in companies tied to Solana, Optimism, dYdX, Flashnet, and prediction markets. He committed to divesting those holdings upon taking the role.
Warsh has also described Bitcoin as an important asset for informing economic policy discussions.
What investors should be watching now The AI energy demand angle is worth monitoring specifically for crypto miners and proof-of-work infrastructure, where electricity cost is a direct input to profitability. If power prices rise because AI data centers are consuming more grid capacity, mining economics tighten even if Bitcoin’s price is holding.
Warsh was nominated by President Trump and confirmed by the Senate, making his relationship with market expectations politically visible in a way that previous Fed chairs sometimes avoided.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Michael Saylor has come out firmly against Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110, better known as BIP 110. His argument is straightforward: Bitcoin needs guardians of neutrality, not gatekeepers deciding which transactions are worthy of the chain.
What BIP 110 actually proposes BIP 110 is designed to temporarily add seven extra consensus rules to the Bitcoin network for a period of one year. The goal is to filter out what proponents call network spam, specifically non-monetary data inscriptions modeled after Ordinals.
In practical terms, the proposal would cap new output scripts at 34 bytes and limit OP_RETURN outputs to 83 bytes.
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For BIP 110 to activate, at least 55% of nodes would need to validate blocks signaling support, with the target activation set at block 965,664. Here is where the proposal immediately runs into a wall: miner signaling is currently sitting at 0%.
Saylor’s case for neutrality Saylor’s objection cuts deeper than a preference for Ordinals or a distaste for spam filters. His concern is structural. He argues that the moment Bitcoin’s consensus rules start distinguishing between acceptable and unacceptable transaction types, the network crosses a line it cannot uncross. Bitcoin’s rules should define what is technically valid, not what is economically or culturally desirable.
Adam Back adds weight to the opposition Saylor is not alone in this corner. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, has also criticized BIP 110 on similar grounds. Back’s concern centers on decentralization and censorship resistance. His position echoes a long-standing principle in Bitcoin development: the network’s strength comes from its predictability and its indifference to the identity or purpose of a transaction sender.
What this means for Bitcoin governance and investors The zero miner signaling figure effectively puts BIP 110 on life support before it ever reached a real vote. Without miner participation, the proposal cannot reach its activation threshold.
This debate is a proxy war for a much larger question: is Bitcoin a narrow monetary network optimized for value transfer, or is it a general-purpose settlement layer indifferent to the nature of what it settles? Ordinals forced that question into the open, and BIP 110 represents one camp’s attempt to answer it through protocol rules rather than social consensus.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds registered notable net inflows on July 17, reflecting an apparent rise in investor interest despite ongoing volatility across the crypto market.
ETF inflows signal renewed interestSpot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $132 million in net inflows, with Ethereum ETFs attracting $36.73 million, according to recent figures. These inflows followed a period marked by heightened turbulence and uncertainty, causing many investors to hold a cautious outlook on digital assets.
The recent shift points to possible renewed confidence in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Rising inflows suggest that some institutional investors may be preparing for a potential rebound or are taking advantage of lower market prices.
Market sentiment remains cautiousDespite the increase in ETF investment, overall sentiment among crypto traders has remained deep in “Fear” territory, indicating a climate of ongoing risk aversion. The scale of these inflows has drawn greater attention, given the market’s ongoing uncertainty in recent weeks.
On July 17, Bitcoin was trading near $64,010 and Ethereum at $1,841, with both assets posting modest daily gains. This uptick followed a stretch of subdued price action and provided a degree of optimism to investors monitoring the broader market landscape.
Broader implications for digital assetsSome analysts view the latest ETF inflows as a potential precursor to shifting sentiment within the crypto sector. The increased demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs may play an influential role in near-term price trends, especially as large buyers continue to accumulate positions.
Amid ongoing volatility, recent inflows into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have taken on added significance for traders looking to discern where digital asset markets might head next.
Grayscale, a major digital asset management firm, has also announced a rebranding of its Bitcoin miners ETF, aligning its focus with advances in artificial intelligence computing. Meanwhile, market analysts have pointed to a cooling off in Bitcoin selling, although $69,000 remains a key reference point for future movement.
Mini dictionary: Grayscale is a leading digital asset management firm specializing in cryptocurrency trusts and investment products for institutional and individual investors.
The interplay between ETF inflows, institutional positioning, and prevailing sentiment continues to shape how both Bitcoin and Ethereum respond to broader market forces in the weeks ahead.
AssetETF Net Inflow (July 17)Price (July 17)Bitcoin$132 million$64,010Ethereum$36.73 million$1,841Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
There is $1.6 trillion in Bitcoin sitting idle, earning nothing, doing nothing. Charles Hoskinson has a plan to put it to work on Cardano, and the plan quietly requires every transaction to burn a little ADA. Whether that saves Cardano or exposes its central problem is the whole question.
Summary
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has laid out a strategy to bring Bitcoin into Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem through a platform called Pogun, targeting the roughly $1.6 trillion in idle Bitcoin. Pogun rolls out in three phases across 2026: a non-margin credit market in the second quarter, a yield application in the third, and a BitVM-based trust-minimized bridge in the fourth. The mechanism that matters for ADA holders: every transaction in the system requires ADA for fees, paid invisibly by Bitcoin users, creating a demand driver that Cardano’s token has lacked. It leans on Midnight, Cardano’s privacy partner chain, for confidential transactions, and on Cardano’s EUTXO architecture, which shares design lineage with Bitcoin’s own UTxO model. The sharp objection, raised by Cardano’s own community: if Bitcoin can be lent, earn yield, and settle without users noticing ADA, why hold ADA at all? The plan may build against its own token. Cardano has a problem it has had for years, and it is not a technology problem. ADA trades around 94% below its 2021 high, the network’s DeFi activity has long lagged its ambitions, and its founder spends a meaningful share of his time denying rumors that he is quitting. What Cardano has never lacked is engineering and ideas.
What it has lacked is a reason for capital to show up. Charles Hoskinson’s answer, laid out across 2026, is audacious: stop trying to attract crypto capital to Cardano and go get Bitcoin’s instead. There is roughly $1.6 trillion in Bitcoin sitting idle in wallets, earning nothing, and Hoskinson wants to route a slice of it through Cardano’s infrastructure, with every transaction quietly paying fees in ADA. It is the most concrete demand thesis Cardano has produced in years. It also contains a contradiction its own community has already spotted.
The idle-Bitcoin thesis The premise starts with a real and large number. Something on the order of $1.6 trillion in Bitcoin sits in wallets doing nothing productive. Bitcoin is superb as a store of value and poor as a financial instrument: it does not natively lend, earn yield, or plug into decentralized finance without wrapping, bridging, or handing custody to an intermediary. That gap, enormous dormant capital with no native way to work, is what every “Bitcoin DeFi” project is chasing, and Hoskinson has decided Cardano should chase it hard.
His framing, delivered publicly in May 2026 and reiterated through the year, is that Bitcoin holders would be able to access lending, yield, and privacy tools through Cardano without surrendering control of their assets. A dedicated team, described at various points as around 19 people, is building it. The pitch to Bitcoin holders is straightforward: keep your Bitcoin, but make it productive, through infrastructure that does not require you to trust a centralized custodian.
The pitch to Cardano holders is different and more important to the ADA investment case. Hoskinson has been explicit that the entire system runs on ADA underneath. In his own words, every single transaction requires ADA to happen; the Bitcoin user pays a fee in ADA but does not see it. The idea is to make ADA the invisible fuel of a Bitcoin-DeFi economy, generating persistent, usage-based demand for the token regardless of whether anyone is speculating on ADA itself. For a token whose central weakness has been the absence of a demand driver, that is the whole game.
What Pogun actually is Pogun is the platform that operationalizes the thesis, and its structure is more concrete than Cardano’s roadmaps usually are.
It rolls out in three phases across 2026. The first, targeted for the second quarter, is a non-margin credit market: lending against Bitcoin without the liquidation-cascade risk that leveraged lending carries. The second, targeted for the third quarter, is a yield-focused application that lets Bitcoin holders earn returns.
The third, targeted for the fourth quarter, is a BitVM-powered bridge, a trust-minimized way to move Bitcoin onto Cardano infrastructure without the custodial risk that has plagued wrapped-Bitcoin products. Input Output Group sought treasury funding for the effort, with figures around 12.3 million ADA cited, as part of a larger proposal slate that also funded the Leios scaling upgrade.
The architecture leans on two Cardano-specific pieces. The first is Midnight, Cardano’s privacy-focused partner chain, which launched its mainnet in early 2026 and serves as the confidential coordination layer, letting Bitcoin holders use DeFi tools without exposing their positions publicly. Hoskinson has framed Midnight as proof of Cardano’s partner-chain model, specialized chains operating alongside the main network while drawing on its security.
The second is Cardano’s EUTXO accounting model, which shares design lineage with Bitcoin’s own UTxO model. That shared lineage is not incidental; it is part of the technical argument that Cardano is a more natural home for Bitcoin DeFi than account-based chains like Ethereum, because the two systems think about transactions in a similar way.
The sequencing is deliberate. The team has described building the credit market and liquidity first, so that by the time the consumer-facing products launch, there is already a functioning market underneath them instead of an empty shell waiting for users.
JUST IN: Cardano enables thousands of onchain signature checks at lower cost
Plutus smart contracts can now verify signatures natively using BLS12 381 cryptography pic.twitter.com/9Mqk9B6J9V
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) July 18, 2026 The bull case The strongest version of this argument is that Cardano has finally identified the right target and built a credible, differentiated way to reach it.
The demand mechanism is genuinely elegant. Cardano’s problem was never capability; it was that ADA had no structural reason to be in demand beyond speculation and staking. Embedding ADA as the mandatory fee layer of a Bitcoin-DeFi economy creates exactly the kind of usage-based demand that speculation cannot provide, and that does not evaporate when sentiment turns. If Bitcoin DeFi on Cardano generates real volume, ADA demand rises mechanically with it, transaction by transaction, whether or not anyone is bullish on ADA as a trade. That is a far healthier demand base than the memecoin-and-narrative cycles driving other chains.
JUST IN: Cardano reduces reliance on creator input output
Key infrastructure will be handed to external teams with community oversight starting in August pic.twitter.com/72NTpukLYb
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) July 18, 2026 The target is also the right one. Every serious chain is chasing Bitcoin DeFi because the prize, a fraction of $1.6 trillion in dormant capital, is the largest untapped pool in crypto. Cardano bringing brokerage-grade patience, a privacy layer, and UTxO compatibility to that chase is a real differentiator against the wrapped-Bitcoin approaches that have dominated and repeatedly failed on custody and trust. A BitVM bridge that reduces custodial risk addresses the exact failure mode, hacked or insolvent custodians, that has burned wrapped-Bitcoin users before.
And it fits Cardano’s identity rather than betraying it. Cardano’s whole brand is methodical, research-driven, security-first engineering, often criticized as too slow. Bitcoin holders are, as a group, the most conservative and security-conscious in crypto. A careful, peer-reviewed, custody-minimizing approach to Bitcoin DeFi is arguably better matched to Bitcoin holders than the move-fast culture of other DeFi ecosystems. For once, Cardano’s slowness could be a feature aimed at exactly the audience that values it.
The bear case The skeptical case starts with a question a Cardano community member asked Hoskinson directly, and it is devastating in its simplicity: what would be the point of holding ADA over Bitcoin? Are we building against our own core token?
The concern is real and structural. If the system is designed so that Bitcoin users pay fees in ADA without seeing it, then the design goal is explicitly to make ADA invisible. A Bitcoin holder using Pogun holds Bitcoin, earns yield in Bitcoin, and never needs to acquire, hold, or think about ADA. The fees are abstracted away. If ADA is successfully hidden from the user, then ADA is a backend utility token that the end user has no reason to hold as an investment, which means the demand is limited to whatever float the protocols need to operate, not the broad holder demand that supports a token’s price.
Making ADA the invisible plumbing is good for usage and potentially bad for ADA as an asset people want to own. Hoskinson’s answer, that transactions require ADA regardless, addresses mechanical demand but not the deeper question of why anyone holds ADA rather than the Bitcoin it is helping to mobilize.
The second problem is execution and timeline. Cardano has a long history of ambitious roadmaps that arrive late or underdeliver relative to the promise. Pogun’s phases are targeted across 2026, and Cardano’s governance has been visibly deadlocked, with treasury votes for exactly this kind of initiative facing friction and Hoskinson warning that rejecting research funding could drive engineers away. A plan that depends on multiple new components, Midnight, the BitVM bridge, the credit and yield layers, all shipping and integrating on schedule, is a plan with substantial execution risk in an ecosystem that has struggled to convert roadmap into adoption before.
The third problem is competition. Cardano is not alone in chasing Bitcoin DeFi; it is late to a crowded race. Bitcoin layer-2s, wrapped-Bitcoin protocols on Ethereum, and Bitcoin-native DeFi efforts are all pursuing the same idle capital, several with more liquidity, more developers, and more existing integrations than Cardano has managed to attract. Cardano’s DeFi TVL has sat around $1.1 billion at times, a fraction of Ethereum’s or Solana’s, which raises the question of why Bitcoin holders would route their capital through the ecosystem that has struggled most to attract capital in the first place. Being a natural technical home for Bitcoin DeFi does not help if the liquidity and developers are elsewhere.
LATEST: Bitcoin is heading natively to Cardano. The Cardinal protocol aims to wrap BTC UTXOs into Cardano native assets with a one-to-one peg, unlocking liquidity for Cardano DeFi without custodians pic.twitter.com/hEhZzGzefV
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) April 28, 2026 The token question at the center Everything about this plan comes back to one unresolved tension, and it is worth stating plainly because it is the crux of whether Pogun helps ADA or merely helps Bitcoin.
Cardano is trying to solve its demand problem by making ADA essential but invisible. Those two properties are in tension. Essential means every transaction needs ADA, which creates mechanical demand proportional to usage. Invisible means users never consciously hold or value ADA, which suppresses the discretionary demand that actually drives a token’s price above its pure utility floor. A token that is essential-but-invisible tends to trade at its utility value, the minimum float the system needs to function, rather than at the premium that comes from people wanting to own it. Ethereum resolved this tension by making ETH visible and desirable as an asset in its own right, through staking, through the ultrasound narrative, through being the reserve asset of its own economy. Cardano’s Pogun design points the other way, toward ADA as backend infrastructure.
The optimistic resolution is that sufficient usage makes even utility-value demand large. If Bitcoin DeFi on Cardano processes enormous volume, the mechanical ADA demand could be substantial even if no one holds ADA for love of it. The pessimistic resolution is that Cardano will have built a successful piece of Bitcoin infrastructure whose value accrues to Bitcoin holders and Pogun’s operators, while ADA captures only the thin utility margin, which is not the outcome ADA holders are hoping for when they cheer a Bitcoin-DeFi announcement.
Which resolution wins depends on numbers that do not exist yet, because the products are still launching. The second-quarter credit market and third-quarter yield app are the first real tests. If they generate meaningful Bitcoin volume and ADA demand rises visibly with it, the thesis has legs. If they launch quietly into the same low-liquidity environment that has characterized Cardano DeFi, then Pogun becomes another well-engineered Cardano initiative that did not move the token, and the community member’s question, why hold ADA over Bitcoin, will have answered itself.
Why Cardano needs this to work To understand why Hoskinson is betting so heavily on Bitcoin DeFi, you have to understand how much pressure Cardano is under, because Pogun is not an opportunistic add-on. It is a response to an existential question the market keeps asking.
The pressure is visible in the numbers and the noise around them. ADA trades roughly 94% below its 2021 high, deep in the ranks of large-cap tokens that led the previous cycle and never recovered. Cardano’s DeFi total value locked, around $1.1 billion at times, is a fraction of Ethereum’s or Solana’s despite Cardano having been live since 2017 and commanding one of the most committed communities in crypto. Hoskinson has spent 2026 denying rumors that he is leaving the project and calling them fiction, which is not a thing founders of thriving networks typically have to do. And the governance apparatus, the CIP-1694 on-chain system Cardano is genuinely proud of, has been deadlocked over treasury proposals, with Hoskinson warning that rejecting research funding could push engineers out.
Underneath all of it is a criticism Hoskinson himself has accepted in his own framing: Cardano’s problem is not technology. He has said explicitly that it is not a node problem, not a problem of imagination, not a problem of execution capability, but a problem of governance, coordination, and ultimately getting capital and users to show up. That is a striking admission from a founder, and it reframes Pogun. Bitcoin DeFi is not just a product; it is Hoskinson’s answer to the accusation that Cardano builds impressive technology that nobody uses. If he can route Bitcoin’s enormous, idle capital base through Cardano, he solves the adoption problem and the demand problem at once, and he does it without needing to win the crypto-native DeFi users who have consistently chosen other chains.
That is why the stakes are higher than a normal roadmap item. Cardano has tried narratives before: smart contracts, then DeFi, then real-world assets, and none produced the adoption inflection the community keeps waiting for. Bitcoin DeFi is the biggest swing yet, aimed at the biggest target, and it arrives at a moment when patience with the slow-and-steady thesis is visibly thinning. If Pogun works, it vindicates the entire methodical approach. If it lands quietly like its predecessors, it will be much harder to argue that the next initiative will be different. Hoskinson has effectively staked the credibility of Cardano’s whole strategy on reaching an audience that has never been Cardano’s, which is either the boldest possible move or a sign of how few options remain.
What to watch Three concrete markers will tell you which way this breaks.
The first is whether the Pogun phases actually ship on their 2026 timeline. The credit market was targeted for the second quarter and the yield app for the third; slippage on those dates, in an ecosystem already criticized for slow delivery, would be an early negative signal. Shipping on time, with working products, would be a genuine and somewhat unexpected positive given Cardano’s track record.
The second is Bitcoin volume through the system, not ADA price. The entire thesis rests on attracting idle Bitcoin, so the metric that matters is how much Bitcoin actually flows into Pogun’s credit and yield products once they are live. ADA price will be noisy and driven by the broader market; Bitcoin TVL on Cardano is the clean read on whether the idle-Bitcoin thesis is working.
The third is whether ADA demand becomes visible in the data as usage grows. This is the crux question made measurable. If Bitcoin volume rises and on-chain ADA demand rises with it in a legible way, the essential-and-invisible design is working as a demand driver. If Bitcoin volume rises and ADA does nothing, then the community’s fear was correct, and Cardano will have built valuable infrastructure for someone else’s asset. Hoskinson has made the boldest, most concrete bet of Cardano’s recent history. The next two quarters start to settle whether it was aimed at the right target or against his own token.
Frequently Asked Questions What is Cardano’s Bitcoin DeFi plan? It is a strategy, led by founder Charles Hoskinson, to bring Bitcoin into Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem and tap the roughly $1.6 trillion in idle Bitcoin. The centerpiece is Pogun, a platform letting Bitcoin holders lend, borrow, and earn yield through Cardano infrastructure without surrendering custody. Crucially, every transaction in the system requires ADA for fees, creating usage-based demand for Cardano’s token.
What is Pogun? A three-phase Bitcoin DeFi platform rolling out across 2026: a non-margin credit market in the second quarter, a yield-focused application in the third, and a BitVM-based trust-minimized bridge in the fourth. It integrates Midnight, Cardano’s privacy partner chain, for confidential transactions, and builds on Cardano’s EUTXO architecture, which shares design lineage with Bitcoin’s UTxO model. Input Output Group sought around 12.3 million ADA in treasury funding for it.
How does this benefit ADA holders? Through embedded demand. Hoskinson has stated that every transaction in the system requires ADA for fees, paid by Bitcoin users who may not even notice. If Bitcoin DeFi on Cardano generates real volume, ADA demand rises mechanically with it, independent of speculation. For a token whose main weakness has been the lack of a structural demand driver, that is the core of the investment argument.
What is the main criticism? That the design makes ADA essential but invisible, which are properties in tension. If Bitcoin users pay fees in ADA without seeing it, they have no reason to hold ADA as an investment, so demand may stay limited to the minimum the protocols need instead of the broad holder demand that lifts a token’s price. A community member asked Hoskinson directly what the point of holding ADA over Bitcoin would be, capturing the concern that Cardano may be building against its own token.
How is this different from wrapped Bitcoin? Wrapped Bitcoin typically requires trusting a custodian to hold the underlying Bitcoin, a model that has failed through hacks and insolvencies. Pogun’s fourth phase is a BitVM-based bridge designed to be trust-minimized, reducing reliance on a custodian. Combined with Cardano’s UTxO compatibility with Bitcoin and the Midnight privacy layer, the pitch is a more secure, more private way to make Bitcoin productive than existing wrapped approaches.
Why does Cardano think it can win Bitcoin DeFi? Three arguments: its EUTXO architecture shares design lineage with Bitcoin’s UTxO model, making it a technically natural fit; its methodical, security-first culture matches Bitcoin holders’ conservatism; and its Midnight privacy chain offers confidentiality that Bitcoin holders value. The counterargument is that Cardano is late to a crowded race with lower liquidity and fewer developers than competitors, which may outweigh any technical fit.
When does Pogun launch? Its phases are targeted across 2026: the credit market in the second quarter, the yield application in the third, and the BitVM bridge in the fourth. Given Cardano’s history of ambitious roadmaps arriving later than promised, and ongoing governance friction over treasury funding, whether these dates hold is itself a meaningful signal to watch.
Will this fix ADA’s price? Unknown, and it depends on the essential-versus-invisible tension. If Bitcoin volume through Pogun is large, mechanical ADA demand could be substantial even without holders wanting ADA for its own sake. If volume is modest, or if ADA is so well hidden that demand stays at the minimum float the system needs, the plan could succeed as Bitcoin infrastructure while doing little for ADA as an asset. The next two quarters of launches are the first real test.
Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. It describes a development roadmap whose components are still launching and whose outcomes are uncertain. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research. Information is accurate as of July 17, 2026.
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Bitcoin has long been the asset everyone wants exposure to and the network nobody could build on. Stacks was designed to change that, and a new on-chain milestone suggests it is making progress.
The Stacks protocol has recorded 1.6 million total wallets that have ever received a transfer, according to on-chain analytics tracking cumulative user adoption.
What the wallet count actually tells you What the 1.6 million figure tells you is the cumulative reach of the network, the total number of unique addresses that have had at least some interaction with the Stacks ecosystem at any point in its history. Not everyone is logging in daily, but the number sets a ceiling for potential reactivation and signals that the protocol has moved well beyond niche hobbyist territory.
A busy summer of product launches On July 8, 2026, the protocol announced stBTC, a liquid staking token built to generate Bitcoin yield within the Stacks DeFi ecosystem. Instead of simply holding Bitcoin and earning nothing, users can stake it through Stacks and receive a liquid token that can be deployed elsewhere in DeFi while the underlying Bitcoin continues earning yield.
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Five days later, on July 13, a proposal for the PoX-5 upgrade was put forward. PoX, which stands for Proof of Transfer, is the consensus mechanism that connects Stacks to Bitcoin by having miners transfer Bitcoin to participate in block production. The PoX-5 proposal introduces a new staking model and a 15% reserve fund, creating a buffer within the staking system designed to add stability and reduce the risk of yield disruption for participants.
Earlier in the summer, on June 17, Stacks announced an integration with Fireblocks, the institutional-grade digital asset custody and transfer platform. Fireblocks is the infrastructure layer that hedge funds, banks, and crypto-native institutions use to move and secure assets at scale, and the integration opens the door to a class of capital that previously had no clean on-ramp into the Stacks ecosystem.
The Nakamoto foundation The Nakamoto release, completed in 2024, was the most significant technical upgrade in the protocol’s history. Before Nakamoto, Stacks blocks were tied to Bitcoin block production, meaning the network inherited Bitcoin’s roughly ten-minute confirmation window. Post-Nakamoto, the protocol produces blocks at a faster cadence. The two-way peg mechanism, sBTC, allows Bitcoin to move between the Bitcoin base layer and the Stacks layer without relying on a centralized custodian.
stBTC, announced this July, builds directly on top of sBTC.
What investors should watch stBTC is the most direct catalyst to watch. Liquid staking tokens tend to generate flywheel effects: yield attracts deposits, deposits increase total value locked, higher TVL attracts more DeFi protocols, and more protocols attract more users.
The PoX-5 upgrade directly affects the incentive structure for STX holders who participate in stacking. The 15% reserve fund introduces a new variable into that calculus, and the market will need to price in both the stability benefits and any changes to effective yield rates once the upgrade is finalized.
The Fireblocks integration removes one of the primary friction points for funds that want Bitcoin DeFi exposure without building custom infrastructure.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
David Hunter, Chief Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, known for his analysis of global markets, made striking statements of great interest to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investors.
Responding to Natalie Brunell’s questions, Hunter indicated that technically downward pressure on Bitcoin could continue, pointing to a sharp correction wave.
David Hunter, recalling that he shared a technical chart analysis when the Bitcoin price was above $100,000, said that the downtrend could deepen. Stating that technical momentum, rather than fundamental factors, determines decisions in the market, the renowned analyst summarized his short- and medium-term goals for Bitcoin with the following words:
“When Bitcoin was above $100,000, I made a technical analysis and said the price could initially drop to $75,000. Now I predict the next step could be $50,000.”
Hunter stated that the biggest psychological factor behind the declines was retail investors who entered the market at high prices (between $100,000 and $120,000) with the “desire to catch the peak.” He noted that these investors are now at a loss and have started selling in a panic.
The macro analyst stated that negative momentum in bear markets is self-reinforcing, but pointed out that the real big risk lies in corporate debt and leverage usage.
“Just like in the silver market, momentum begets momentum in Bitcoin. Those who joined the upward rally at the last minute are now at a loss and giving up. But the real danger is that players like Michael Saylor, who held positions with high leverage, will be cornered by this negative pressure.”
Hunter argues that the Fed will have to print a massive amount of money, perhaps $20 trillion, to rescue markets in the future, and predicts that one of the biggest global collapses in history will occur just before this process.
While Bitcoin supporters see it as the “ultimate financial safe haven,” Hunter, maintaining a cautious stance, said that whether Bitcoin is a real asset can only be proven by this major crisis.
“I’ve always said to people in the Bitcoin world: I want to see how Bitcoin will fare during this global downturn. After watching how BTC survives during this major crisis, we’ll be able to definitively understand whether it’s a ‘real and resilient’ asset as everyone claims.”
*This is not investment advice.
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Bitcoin may finally be entering the last stage of its bear market. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost has identified a rare on chain signal that has appeared before every major Bitcoin rally.
With Bitcoin staying above key support even after heavy selling, investors are now watching for the next big breakout.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost says Bitcoin has flashed a rare end of bear market signal, indicating that the market is entering its final bearish phase before a possible trend reversal.
The signal appeared after Bitcoin’s Short Term Holder (STH) cost basis crossed below the Long Term Holder (LTH) cost basis, with a required three day confirmation window now completed.
Historically, this has marked the beginning of the final phase of a Bitcoin bear market before a new bull cycle starts.
But Darkfost says that, “This doesn’t mean the bear market ends the moment the signal fires”, “It simply shows we are entering its final phase.”
Meanwhile,this is the best opportunity for investors who use a Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy.
Signal Indicate Next Bull Run is Likely to Begin According to Darkfost analysis, short term holders (STH) are investors who bought Bitcoin within the last six months, while long-term holders (LTH) have held their coins for more than six months.
During the recent price drop, newer investors kept buying Bitcoin, which lowered their average buying price.
Because of this, the STH cost basis dropped from about $112,500 to around $69,000, moving below the active long-term holders’ cost basis and triggering the rare market signal.
According to Darkfost, the next bull run is likely to begin when new investors start buying Bitcoin at higher prices than long-term holders. In the past, this has often been a sign that strong market momentum is returning.
Bitcoin Holds Above $60K Despite Selling Pressure Nearly three weeks ago, Bitcoin recovered from a low of $57,747 and has continued moving higher.
Even after Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold 3,588 BTC worth about $216 million to fund dividend payments, Bitcoin did not fall below $60,000. This suggests buyers are strongly defending that price level.
Now, analysts are closely watching $67,248, which is the next major resistance. If Bitcoin breaks above this level, it could strengthen the case for a bigger bullish move.
As of now, bitcoin is trading around $63,947 relfecitng a jumpe o 1.4% seen in the last 24 hours.
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Bitcoin may continue to sweep liquidity throughout its established range, with price fluctuations anticipated between the $67,000 and $76,000 levels. However, market analysis signals the potential for both a significant breakout and a sudden correction, possibly sending BTC toward $55,000 or even the low $50,000s before a more robust recovery unfolds.
Midterm Election Cycle Sets the Stage for Bitcoin’s Next MovesCastillo Trading, a technical analysis provider known for tracking cyclical trends in digital assets, projects that Bitcoin could enter a rally leading up to the U.S. midterm elections in 2026. The firm suggests this move would fit historical election-related patterns, though there are no guarantees these developments will repeat precisely.
Their analysis positions BTC below the midpoint of its broader range, identifying support close to $60,000 and a median value near $70,000. Should the price manage to reclaim $65,683, it may open a path toward $70,000 to $71,365 in the near term.
Momentum extending beyond those levels could draw Bitcoin into what Castillo Trading describes as the “premium zone” between $74,492 and $76,696. Notably, this region includes the 2025 yearly opening price alongside several technical resistance levels based on previous trading activity.
Anticipation of heavy seller pressure in this zone remains high, with analysts pointing to the risk of rapid reversals if large-volume participants choose to exit positions at these highs.
Following the midterm elections, Castillo Trading’s charting suggests a sharp correction could emerge, potentially pulling BTC beneath $60,000 and down toward the $51,000 to $56,000 range. Such a move would likely force recent buyers into losses and clear out liquidity beneath the current trading range before a potential new cycle of gains begins.
Bitcoin faces significant hurdles at key technical zones. Sustained trading above $70,000 could decrease the likelihood of a steep decline, while falling below $60,000 would make the bearish scenario more probable based on historical patterns.
The analysis emphasizes the importance of key support and resistance levels. If the $70,000 barrier is breached and BTC manages to stay above the premium region, downside risks could lessen, challenging the possibility of a deep correction.
Liquidity Traps and Critical Levels in the Current RangeTechnical charts show that Bitcoin is oscillating between principal liquidity pockets, with market participants watching for moves beyond either end of the established range. The current outlook suggests BTC may first descend to around $61,300 before rebounding toward $67,300. Another corrective move could follow if resistance holds.
This pattern has played out in recent sessions, with Bitcoin sweeping liquidity above $64,700 before retreating. A push below $61,300 would potentially activate another wave toward $59,300, where a substantial liquidity pool awaits.
Quick recoveries from those lower zones might provide BTC the foundation for a countertrend move up to $64,700 and, eventually, $67,300. However, if $67,300 fails to give way to further advances, the wider trading range could remain intact—opening the door for potential declines toward $55,000. Analyst Justin Bennett continues to cite $44,000 as a possible long-term target, though current trading activity does not yet confirm this outlook.
For now, sharper liquidity movements in both directions appear more likely than a clear, sustained trend, unless Bitcoin can break and hold above $67,300.
Mini dictionary: Castillo Trading, a technical analysis and trading research group focusing on identifying cyclical price patterns, support and resistance zones, and volume dynamics across major cryptocurrencies.
Key LevelsAction/Implication$65,683Initial breakout target$70,000-$71,365Median/short-term resistance$74,492-$76,696Premium zone, resistance and potential sell pressure$61,300First support/liquidity target$55,000-$56,000Potential correction zone$51,000Major support area after correction$44,000Long-term bearish scenario targetDisclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Polymarket traders are pricing in a high probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at its July meeting, with odds rising to 94% after softer inflation data improved the market’s macro mood.
That matters for Bitcoin because rate expectations remain one of the most important forces shaping risk appetite. When inflation cools, traders usually become more confident that the Fed can avoid further tightening. That can support equities, crypto, and other risk assets because the market starts looking ahead to easier liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin has spent much of this cycle trading at the intersection of macro expectations and crypto-native demand. ETF flows, institutional access, and on-chain activity all matter, but inflation and interest-rate expectations still set the tone for how aggressively investors are willing to take risk.
The latest Polymarket move shows how quickly that macro sentiment can shift.
Reference: Polymarket
TL;DR Polymarket odds for a July Fed rate hold climbed to 94%. The move followed softer US inflation data. Bitcoin sentiment improved alongside renewed ETF inflows and a better risk backdrop. Why Fed Odds Matter For Bitcoin Bitcoin is often described as a hedge against monetary instability, but in practice it also trades like a high-beta liquidity asset.
When traders expect higher rates, the market usually becomes more cautious. Cash yields become more attractive, leverage becomes more expensive, and speculative assets can come under pressure. When traders expect the Fed to pause or eventually cut rates, risk appetite often improves.
That is why prediction-market odds matter.
Polymarket is not the Federal Reserve. It does not decide policy. But it gives a live view of how traders are pricing the probability of different outcomes. A 94% probability of a hold tells the market that traders see further tightening as unlikely in the immediate term.
That can make Bitcoin more attractive, especially if investors believe the worst of the inflation pressure is passing.
The supporting inflation backdrop is important here. The available source material points to July 14 CPI data showing annual inflation falling to 3.5%, down from 4.2% in May. A softer inflation reading gives the Fed more room to stay patient.
ETF Flows Add A Crypto-Native Layer The macro story becomes more important when it lines up with crypto-specific flows.
The repaired pack notes that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $132.3 million on July 17, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. If that flow picture holds, it suggests Bitcoin is not only benefiting from a better macro tone but also seeing renewed demand through regulated investment products.
That combination is powerful.
Macro improves the environment. ETF flows show whether investors are actually allocating. Bitcoin tends to respond best when both line up. A better inflation print without follow-through buying can fade quickly. ETF inflows during a hostile macro period can still struggle. Together, they give traders a stronger reason to pay attention.
That said, one day of flows is not enough to declare a new trend. ETF data can be volatile, and Polymarket odds can move as new economic data or Fed commentary arrives. The useful point is that the immediate setup has improved from where it was during the outflow-heavy period.
For Bitcoin bulls, the question is whether this becomes a sustained shift or just a short-term relief move.
The Fed Still Has The Final Word A 94% prediction-market probability is a strong signal, but the Fed still sets policy based on its own data and mandate.
Officials will be watching inflation, labour-market conditions, financial conditions, and whether price pressure is cooling fast enough to justify a more relaxed stance. A single CPI reading helps, but it does not eliminate the risk of sticky inflation or hawkish guidance.
That is why Bitcoin traders need to treat the Polymarket move as a sentiment signal, not a guarantee.
If the Fed holds and its language is softer, Bitcoin could benefit from a cleaner risk-on setup. If the Fed holds but sounds cautious, the market reaction may be more muted. If future inflation data surprises higher, current odds can unwind quickly.
For now, the market is leaning toward a pause, and Bitcoin is reflecting that improved mood.
The bigger takeaway is that prediction markets are becoming part of the crypto macro toolkit. Traders no longer wait only for Fed statements or analyst notes. They watch live odds, ETF flows, CPI data, and price action together.
That creates a more dynamic market, but also a faster-moving one. Bitcoin can reprice quickly when macro probability shifts. Right now, that shift is working in its favour.
This article is based on Polymarket, BLS inflation data, and Bitcoin ETF flow data.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has purchased $136.5 million worth of Bitcoin through its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), as institutional participation in Bitcoin funds continues despite recent market volatility.
BlackRock’s ETF purchase and institutional activityThe substantial Bitcoin purchase by BlackRock was highlighted by market commentator That Martini Guy, who emphasized the scale of the investment and characterized it as clear evidence of ongoing institutional accumulation, rather than retail-driven demand.
While much of the public focuses on short-term Bitcoin price movements, large scale investors are continuing to accumulate significant Bitcoin positions through funds like IBIT, according to That Martini Guy.
IBIT offers regulated Bitcoin exposure by tracking the price of Bitcoin through a publicly traded product, allowing investors to buy shares in the fund via standard brokerage accounts. This structure provides a convenient alternative to direct ownership, reducing operational complexities such as wallet management and private key security.
BlackRock, headquartered in New York City, manages trillions in assets across global markets and has accelerated ETF product offerings in the digital asset sector over the past year.
Mini dictionary: IBIT is the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund offered by BlackRock. It seeks to mirror the price of Bitcoin by holding the digital asset directly, giving investors exposure without needing to buy, store, or secure Bitcoin themselves.
Cumulative flows reflect slowing momentumSince their launch, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have drawn strong long-term inflows. Cumulative ETF data indicates that total inflows reached the $80 billion to $85 billion range, based on Farside data. At the same time, net flows—a key measure for new money entering these funds—peaked at nearly $63 billion before stabilizing around $50 billion to $52 billion.
Despite the positive long-term trend, recent figures show a slowdown in net flows compared to earlier peaks. Cumulative outflows now sit near $28 billion, partially offsetting the newly invested funds. Nevertheless, inflows remain substantially higher than outflows, underscoring continued institutional interest.
MetricPeak ValueRecent ValueCumulative ETF Inflows$85 billion$80 billionNet Flows$63 billion$50-$52 billionCumulative Outflows–$28 billionKey support zones for ETF flowsAnalysts currently monitor the $50 billion level as a vital support zone for net cumulative ETF flows. Maintaining net flows above this threshold would suggest demand remains steady. A rebound from the current level could signal a strengthening in institutional inflows and potentially lead to a retest of the $55 billion and $60 billion marks. These zones serve as reference points for market participants tracking institutional sentiment in $BTC.
If net flows decrease below $50 billion, the next support areas are expected around $45 billion and $40 billion, respectively. In the near term, BlackRock’s continued purchases are helping keep ETF activity and flows closely watched by the market.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Bitcoin has lost roughly half its value since peaking above $126K in October 2025, sliding to prices not seen since September 2024. And the strangest part about this particular downturn isn’t the magnitude. It’s the mood.
According to Bloomberg’s analysis published on July 17, 2026, this slump looks fundamentally different from the crypto crashes that investors have grown accustomed to. There are no spectacular blowups, no exchange collapses, no fraud revelations triggering forced liquidations. Instead, the market is watching something arguably more troubling: a slow, steady erosion of investor interest with no obvious catalyst to reverse it.
Death by a thousand yawns No major industry scandals have surfaced in the preceding months. No forced liquidations have ripped through leveraged positions in the spectacular fashion that defined earlier downturns. The selling pressure has been persistent but orderly, which in some ways makes it harder to trade around.
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As of early July 2026, Bitcoin was trading below its 200-week moving average. For the uninitiated, that’s a technical indicator that long-term trend followers treat as the dividing line between bull and bear territory. Trading below it signals that the asset’s price is weaker than its average over nearly four years, which tends to make institutional allocators nervous.
Macro headwinds meet regulatory limbo The backdrop isn’t helping. Rising oil prices have reignited inflation concerns, creating exactly the kind of macroeconomic environment where risk assets struggle.
Meanwhile, the US Senate Banking Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee are both engaged in discussions about crypto-related legislation. The Clarity Act and various tax reform proposals are on the table, potentially creating a more structured regulatory environment for digital assets. With midterm elections approaching, the window for passing meaningful legislation is narrowing, and timing pressures are mounting on both committees.
Many market participants expected 2026 to be the year that regulatory clarity would finally arrive and provide a tailwind for crypto prices. That thesis hasn’t exactly played out.
What this means for investors The 200-week moving average breach adds a technical layer of concern. Historically, Bitcoin spending extended time below this level has coincided with the deepest phases of bear markets. Whether that pattern holds or breaks this cycle will likely depend on two variables that are largely outside crypto’s control: the trajectory of inflation and the pace of regulatory progress in Congress.
For traders monitoring macro conditions, oil prices and Federal Reserve commentary deserve close attention. If inflation concerns continue to build, risk assets broadly, not just crypto, will face sustained pressure.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
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Iran has launched strikes against Saudi Arabia for the first time in months, reigniting a conflict that has kept energy markets on edge since fighting broke out in late February.
What happened and why it matters right now The 2026 Iran war, which began on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, has gone through several escalation phases. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, targeting critical oil infrastructure including the Ras Tanura refinery, one of the world’s largest crude processing facilities.
Saudi Arabia quietly escalated in late March, conducting what are now understood to be the first-ever direct Saudi airstrikes on Iranian soil. That was a significant departure from Riyadh’s traditional posture of fighting proxy conflicts rather than engaging Iran head-on.
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Adding fuel to an already volatile situation, Iran-aligned Houthi forces have increased their attacks on Saudi targets as of July 2026.
Oil spikes, Bitcoin dips, and the macro mess Oil prices have surged between 3% and 7% following each major escalation in this conflict.
Bitcoin has shown a pattern during this conflict where oil spikes on escalation news correlate with Bitcoin dips. At various points during the conflict, Bitcoin has fallen below $62K in direct response to geopolitical flare-ups. Bitcoin is not behaving like digital gold during this crisis — it’s behaving like a risk asset, with traders selling crypto to raise cash or rotate into traditional safe havens like gold and US Treasuries.
DeFi platforms are picking up the slack Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetuals exchange, saw trading volumes for oil-linked contracts reach roughly $200M in a single day during one of the conflict’s escalation phases. When traditional markets close overnight or on weekends, geopolitical events don’t stop happening — traders can position around breaking news on 24/7 crypto platforms when futures exchanges are closed.
What this means for investors Saudi Arabia’s willingness to strike Iranian soil directly — something that was unthinkable even a year ago — suggests this conflict has crossed thresholds that make de-escalation harder. Sustained oil price increases feed directly into inflation expectations, which complicate the interest rate environment for every asset class including crypto.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Kaspersky’s Global Research and Analysis Team has uncovered a malware operation called GitVenom that weaponizes one of the most trusted platforms in software development: GitHub. The campaign planted more than 200 fake repositories disguised as legitimate open-source projects, targeting developers and cryptocurrency investors with a cocktail of info-stealers, remote access trojans, and clipboard hijackers designed to redirect crypto transactions.
How GitVenom actually works The campaign, detailed in a Kaspersky report dated February 24, 2025, has been active since at least 2023. Its operators created repositories that looked convincingly real, complete with AI-generated README files, inflated commit histories, and code written across multiple programming languages. The goal was simple: look like a busy, credible open-source project so developers would clone the repo without a second thought.
Once a developer downloaded and built one of these projects, hidden malicious scripts would execute. The malware payloads varied but included Node.js-based info-stealers capable of harvesting personal data, browser credentials, and banking information. More advanced variants deployed open-source remote access tools like Quasar and AsyncRAT, giving attackers persistent backdoor access to infected machines.
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The most directly dangerous component for crypto holders was the clipboard clipper. This relatively simple but devastatingly effective tool monitors a user’s clipboard for cryptocurrency wallet addresses. When it detects one, it silently swaps in the attacker’s address instead. The victim copies what they think is their own wallet address, pastes it into a transaction, and sends funds straight to the thieves.
The damage so far GitVenom’s operators have already pocketed meaningful sums. Kaspersky flagged a single transaction in November 2024 where approximately 5 BTC, worth around $485,000 at the time, was transferred to a wallet controlled by the attackers. Infections have been detected globally, with notable concentrations in Russia, Brazil, and Turkey.
Why this matters for crypto investors For individual crypto investors, the immediate lesson is straightforward: always verify wallet addresses character by character before confirming a transaction. Clipboard manipulation is invisible unless you’re actively looking for it. A hardware wallet that displays the destination address on its own screen provides an additional layer of verification that software alone cannot match.
For developers working on crypto-related projects, supply chain attacks like GitVenom exploit dependency on third-party code by hiding malicious functionality inside seemingly useful libraries or tools.
Kaspersky’s researchers noted that as long as open-source code sharing remains a cornerstone of development, threat actors will continue to use it as a distribution channel. The incentive structure is simply too attractive: high trust, low friction, global reach, and victims who self-select as people with access to cryptocurrency wallets and developer credentials.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been negative for 60 days in a row since the 19th of May, which has put a lot of pressure on Bitcoin right now.
As per CoinGlass’s most recent reading, the index has experienced the longest streak on record, reaching -0.1025%. This indicates that Bitcoin has been trading at a lower price on Coinbase than on Binance for the past two months.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? Such a long streak was last seen between the 16th of January and the 24th of February, which lasted approximately 40 days. That was followed by a notable 30-day period around the market crash on the 11th of October.
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Source: CoinGlass That said, such prolonged negative readings are concerning as they have historically corresponded with times when ETF outflows have occurred.
This comes as the price of Bitcoin increased by 1.8% over the previous day, trading at $63,935.02 at press time.
However, the drop from $76,954 last seen on 19th May raises concerns. The RSI and MACD indicators further suggested that despite the hike, the bulls were not strong enough.
Source: Trading View In contrast, during the same time period, the Bitcoin ETF saw maximum outflows. However, with net inflows of $197 million from 6th to 10th July, the ETFs managed to end the eight-week outflow trend.
Source: SoSo Value Bitcoin’s risk index provides an interesting nuance Meanwhile, this year, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the Bitcoin Risk Index have been very similar. With less appetite for risky assets and tighter liquidity, Bitcoin entered a risk-off phase as the dollar gained strength.
The only significant rebound of the year occurred when the DXY declined, resulting in a more advantageous environment. Naturally, one of the main macro headwinds for Bitcoin may be abating now that the dollar is losing ground and the Bitcoin Risk Index is cooling.
Source: Swissblock However, analysts predict that the cycle bottom will form over the next few months rather than right away.
Source: Ted/X Similar to this, another analyst says that Bitcoin’s failure to hold the $64,000 support level validates their prediction of additional declines.
Source: Layah Heilpern/X Is $100k possible? Nonetheless, Kalshi traders gave Bitcoin a 10% chance of reaching $100,000 before year-end.
This marked the event’s lowest implied probability on record. It suggested traders saw only a one-in-ten chance of that outcome.
Source: Kalshi At the same time, Fidelity Research analyst Zack Wainwright believes that a larger portion of the circulating supply is being held by investors with strong convictions rather than active traders.
However, over 40% of this supply of long-term holders is underwater, which means that they were purchased at prices higher than the current market value of Bitcoin and are now sitting at unrealized losses.
Final Summary Though Bitcoin has seen a hike in the past 24 hours, it has dropped from $76k to $63k from 19th May to press time. Many analysts believe that Bitcoin is starting to form a bottom, and further declines are expected.
Key Takeaways BTC recovered to approximately $63,972 on Saturday following mid-week losses Moonshot AI, a Beijing-based company, unveiled Kimi K3, surpassing leading models from OpenAI and Anthropic Technology and cryptocurrency markets experienced turbulence as the AI breakthrough challenged assumptions about costly infrastructure requirements Mining operations with AI and high-performance computing agreements may face reduced profitability from cost-efficient alternatives Market watchers predict potential movement toward $74,000–$76,000, though downside risk to the low $50,000 range persists Bitcoin staged a recovery approaching $64,000 on Saturday following several challenging days triggered by an unexpected Chinese artificial intelligence announcement and diminishing prospects for United States cryptocurrency regulatory reform.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trading at $63,972 during early Saturday hours, BTC climbed from its weekly bottom of $62,505. The cryptocurrency had earlier approached $65,000 following the release of softer inflation figures from the United States.
Market sentiment shifted when Moonshot AI, headquartered in Beijing, introduced Kimi K3, an open-weight artificial intelligence system. The model achieved a score of 1,679 on a prominent frontend coding evaluation, surpassing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 at 1,631 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 at 1,618.
Featuring 2.8 trillion parameters, the system employs a mixture-of-experts architecture that selectively activates portions of its framework for specific tasks. Complete model weights will become publicly available on July 27.
This development unsettled financial markets by suggesting that advanced AI capabilities need not remain scarce or prohibitively expensive. Bitcoin’s price movements have increasingly mirrored semiconductor equities due to strengthening connections with the AI investment landscape.
Mining Operations Face New Challenges Publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies that have pivoted capacity toward artificial intelligence and high-performance computing applications face particular vulnerability. Should efficient systems like Kimi K3 diminish requirements for premium data center infrastructure, the financial viability of existing agreements could deteriorate.
Market analyst Daan Crypto Trades observed that BTC struggled to breach its local trading boundary, with the 4-hour 200 EMA temporarily holding before experiencing a bearish retest. He characterized recent trading patterns as “very choppy” and consistent with typical summer market dynamics.
Analyst Ted Pillows emphasized that Bitcoin must successfully reclaim the $65,000 threshold before substantial upward momentum can materialize.
Technical Outlook and Price Projections Castillo Trading forecasts Bitcoin may advance toward the $74,492–$76,696 range before a post-midterm correction drives prices toward $51,000–$56,000. This target zone encompasses the 2025 yearly opening price and multiple volume-based resistance thresholds.
How are we feeling about something like this into Midterms 2026?
The last two midterms $BTC has endured, we have seen a small rally leading into a short lived drop directly after, followed by ATHs. Will this time we different?#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/2lP2ha537h
— Castillo Trading (@CastilloTrading) July 17, 2026
Justin Bennett’s liquidity analysis suggests BTC could initially retreat toward $61,300, rebound to $67,300, then experience another downward movement. A decisive break above $67,300 with sustained holding would signal improved market conditions.
Bitcoin currently trades within a range bounded by $60,000 support and $70,000 resistance, with the median positioned near $70,000. Recapturing $65,683 represents the initial milestone toward reaching that upper boundary.
Key Takeaways Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao argued on X that Bitcoin offers inflation protection unlike artificial intelligence The cryptocurrency’s capped supply of 21 million coins contrasts sharply with AI firms’ unlimited share dilution potential Zhao previously projected Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2033 based on historical growth patterns BTC surged past $65,000 following softer-than-expected US producer price index data Upcoming AI company IPOs like OpenAI and Anthropic could temporarily divert investment away from cryptocurrency markets Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao ignited discussion across crypto circles this week with a succinct post on X that garnered 1.3 million impressions. His message was brief and pointed: “AI is great, but it does not protect you against inflation. Bitcoin does.” The statement stood alone without further elaboration or supporting thread.
AI is great, but it does not protect you against inflation.
Bitcoin does.
— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) July 16, 2026
The comment resonated widely because it established a distinct boundary between two dominant investment narratives defining the current market cycle. Market participants have increasingly found themselves choosing between Bitcoin and AI equities as both assets vie for speculative investment dollars.
The Significance of Bitcoin’s Supply Cap Zhao’s position hinges on the concept of scarcity. Bitcoin operates with an immutable ceiling of 21 million coins. This quantity remains permanently fixed regardless of central bank policies or government monetary expansion programs.
Artificial intelligence corporations face no comparable constraint. These companies maintain the ability to dilute existing shareholders through new equity issuance, accumulate debt, and scale operations without limitation. While such expansion can benefit shareholders financially, it fails to provide equivalent safeguards against monetary devaluation.
Traditional fiat currencies depreciate approximately 6 to 7 percent each year according to various economic analyses. Government bonds have generated negative inflation-adjusted returns throughout much of the recent decade. AI-focused equities have delivered strong nominal gains, yet strong performance differs fundamentally from inflation hedging capability.
Current Bitcoin Valuation and Economic Context Bitcoin currently trades around the $63,000 level, representing approximately a 50 percent decline from its record peak. Most market observers classify this as bear market conditions.
However, the cryptocurrency recently climbed above $65,000 after United States producer price data registered below market consensus. The weaker inflation print diminished speculation regarding additional Federal Reserve interest rate increases.
Ethereum similarly benefited from the macroeconomic development, pushing back above the $1,900 threshold in the same timeframe. These price movements demonstrated that Bitcoin remains highly responsive to monetary policy expectations and global liquidity dynamics.
Zhao maintains his bullish long-term perspective. Earlier this month, he presented a scenario projecting Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2033 across two market cycles, utilizing historical growth multipliers ranging from three to five times per cycle. He noted the previous cycle generated weaker returns around 2x, attributing this partially to AI companies capturing capital that might otherwise have flowed into digital assets.
Potential Capital Competition from AI Public Offerings Anticipated initial public offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic have generated renewed concerns about capital allocation strategies. Substantial IPOs typically force institutional investors to liquidate existing holdings in order to finance new equity positions.
Several former cryptocurrency mining operations have pivoted toward AI-focused infrastructure. TeraWulf currently pursues financing for an artificial intelligence data facility tied to a two-decade partnership with Anthropic, representing a strategic shift from its original mining operations.
Zhao has publicly expressed preference for AI infrastructure plays including data centers and computational hardware. Nevertheless, his conviction regarding Bitcoin remains unchanged. He views these asset classes as fulfilling distinct investment objectives.
Bitcoin represents the inflation protection vehicle. Artificial intelligence represents the growth opportunity. In Zhao’s framework, investors must recognize this fundamental distinction.
The SEC has approved a NYSE Arca rule change that raises position and exercise limits for options on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, giving institutional traders more room to hedge and express larger views around the spot Bitcoin ETF market.
The change increases limits for IBIT options from 250,000 contracts to 1,000,000 contracts, according to the SEC release. That is a fourfold increase, and it reflects how quickly Bitcoin ETF options have become part of the market’s trading infrastructure.
This is not the kind of update that grabs attention like a new ETF launch. But for market structure, it matters.
Options limits decide how large positions can become. Larger limits can support deeper institutional trading, more complex hedging, and better liquidity around ETF-linked Bitcoin exposure.
Reference: SEC
TL;DR The SEC approved a NYSE Arca rule change raising IBIT options limits. Position and exercise limits move from 250,000 to 1,000,000 contracts. The change gives larger traders more room to hedge Bitcoin ETF exposure. Bitcoin ETFs Are Becoming Trading Infrastructure The first phase of the spot Bitcoin ETF story was access.
Investors wanted to know whether they could buy Bitcoin exposure through ordinary brokerage accounts. Asset managers wanted products that could fit inside existing portfolios. Advisers wanted a structure that did not involve exchanges, wallets, private keys, or direct custody.
That phase is now maturing.
The next phase is market structure. Once an ETF becomes liquid, traders want options, hedging tools, arbitrage routes, and larger position limits. Those pieces make the product more useful for institutions that manage risk actively rather than simply buying and holding.
IBIT has become one of the most important Bitcoin ETF products in the market, so options activity around it matters. If traders can hold larger options positions, they can manage larger underlying exposures, hedge portfolio risk more efficiently, or build more sophisticated volatility strategies.
That does not mean the change is automatically bullish for Bitcoin. Options can be used for bullish, bearish, and neutral strategies. But it does mean the market around Bitcoin ETFs is becoming deeper.
Why Position Limits Matter Position limits exist to prevent excessive concentration and reduce market-manipulation risk.
If limits are too low, large institutions may find the product less useful. If limits are too high, regulators may worry about market integrity. Raising the limit suggests the exchange and regulator believe the product can support larger activity without creating unacceptable risk.
For IBIT options, moving from 250,000 to 1,000,000 contracts is a meaningful shift.
It allows larger traders to operate with more flexibility. A fund with substantial Bitcoin ETF exposure may need options to hedge downside. A market maker may need room to support liquidity. A volatility trader may want to build positions that were previously constrained by the lower cap.
The result can be a more efficient options market.
Better options liquidity can also improve the underlying ETF market because traders have more ways to manage risk. In mature asset classes, options are a normal part of the ecosystem. Bitcoin ETFs are now moving closer to that model.
A Sign Of Institutional Normalisation The larger point is that Bitcoin is increasingly being absorbed into traditional market infrastructure.
Spot ETFs brought Bitcoin into regulated fund wrappers. Options brought a derivatives layer around those wrappers. Higher position limits now give larger institutions more operational room.
This is exactly how financial markets mature. First comes access, then liquidity, then hedging, then more complex institutional strategies.
For Bitcoin, that is a major shift from earlier cycles, when much of the market was concentrated on offshore exchanges, spot exchanges, and crypto-native derivatives venues. Those venues still matter, but the ETF market has changed the balance.
More regulated options activity could also affect volatility. In some cases, deeper options markets help smooth risk because traders can hedge more efficiently. In other cases, options positioning can create sharp moves around expiries, strikes, and dealer hedging flows.
Either way, Bitcoin traders will increasingly need to watch ETF options data alongside spot flows.
The SEC approval does not guarantee higher Bitcoin prices. It does not remove volatility. It does not change the underlying supply schedule. But it does make the institutional Bitcoin market more functional.
That may be the most important takeaway. Bitcoin ETFs are no longer just products people buy for exposure. They are becoming part of a larger trading and risk-management system.
This article is based on SEC release SR-NYSEARCA-2026-76 and Federal Register materials.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
Kuwait has formally condemned a series of Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting its critical infrastructure, calling them a “blatant breach of international law.” The attacks, which hit power generation plants, water desalination facilities, oil infrastructure operated by the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, and even Kuwait International Airport, represent a sharp escalation in Gulf tensions.
No casualties have been reported from the strikes, but the material damage has been significant. Some periods saw as many as seven attacks in under ten hours.
What’s happening on the ground The strikes, occurring as recently as mid-July 2026, reflect Iran’s broader retaliatory posture against nations it views as aligned with US military interests in the region. Kuwait, which hosts US military installations and has long maintained close defense ties with Washington, appears to have become a target precisely because of that relationship.
The attacks on Kuwait Petroleum Corporation assets add another dimension. Any disruption to Gulf oil production has cascading effects on global energy markets, which in turn influence everything from inflation expectations to central bank policy.
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The crypto fallout has been brutal The early phases of the broader conflict triggered Bitcoin liquidations exceeding $700 million, with BTC briefly dropping below $100,000.
As US-Iran tensions continued escalating, an additional roughly $350 million in liquidations followed, with Bitcoin’s price plummeting toward $62,000.
Trading volatility surged across multiple asset classes within crypto, not just Bitcoin. USDT trading volumes spiked as traders scrambled for stablecoin safety. Gold-backed tokens and oil-related tokens also saw significant volume increases.
US Treasury goes after Iran’s crypto infrastructure The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on Iranian crypto exchanges, freezing $130 million in assets and citing ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Iran’s domestic digital asset ecosystem is valued at over $7.8 billion. Reports indicate that Iran has used digital assets for activities including toll collection in the Strait of Hormuz.
What this means for investors Combined liquidations exceeding $1 billion demonstrate that leveraged positions in Bitcoin and other major tokens are extremely vulnerable to geopolitical headlines.
As the US Treasury expands sanctions to encompass crypto exchanges and digital asset flows connected to Iran, any token or protocol that has even indirect exposure to sanctioned entities faces potential legal jeopardy. $130 million in frozen assets proves regulators are willing to act and have the tools to do so.
Bitcoin traded like a risk asset, not a safe haven, dropping dramatically as tensions escalated. The gold-backed token activity suggests some crypto-native capital is looking for safer ground within the digital asset ecosystem rather than treating Bitcoin itself as that safe ground.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
On-chain analytics company CryptoQuant stated that Strategy’s recently announced new capital management framework significantly alleviates the company’s immediate liquidity concerns, but a more disciplined model for Bitcoin buying and selling is needed.
In a report he published, CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno assessed Strategy’s new plan, called the “Digital Credit Capital Framework,” as a significant shift in direction.
Moreno stated, “The Digital Credit Capital Framework is a real course correction. However, for this change to be complete, Strategy needs to clarify two more issues: a systematic model for timing Bitcoin purchases and a disciplined framework for selling during bullish periods.”
Strategy announced its five-part digital credit capital management framework on June 29. As part of the plan, the company created a US dollar reserve that can only be used for preferred stock dividends and interest payments.
The company has set a coverage target to meet at least 12 months of payment obligations for this reserve. Additionally, the dividend rate for STRC preferred shares has been increased to 12%, subject to monthly review. This step aims to bring the STRC price closer to its nominal value of $100.
The new framework also allows for the repurchase of up to $1 billion worth of preferred shares if company management deems the repurchase to be a value-enhancing activity. STRC shares are planned to be given first priority under this program.
Strategy will also be able to repurchase up to $1 billion worth of common shares of MSTR during periods when it believes the company’s shares are undervalued.
A separate Bitcoin cash-out program created as part of the plan authorizes the company to sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin. The funds raised can be used to strengthen dollar reserves, finance dividend and interest payments, and fund share buybacks.
The company also announced that it will issue shares more cautiously when its mNAV indicator, known as the market value/net asset value ratio, approaches the 1 level.
Strategy’s new plan was announced just days after CryptoQuant released its recommendations for the company.
CryptoQuant had previously urged Strategy to pause Bitcoin purchases until its cash reserves and dividend coverage ratio were strengthened. The company also suggested developing a systematic model for timing future Bitcoin purchases and preparing a plan for selling a portion of its assets during bull markets.
According to Moreno, Strategy has largely followed the first of these recommendations.
Between June 29 and July 5, the company sold approximately 3,588 Bitcoin, generating around $216 million in revenue. These funds were used to pay preferred stock dividends and strengthen the dollar reserve.
Strategy raised $466.7 million from the sale of MSTR shares between July 6 and 12. The company did not make any new Bitcoin purchases or sales during this period.
Following these steps, Strategy’s dollar reserves increased from $1.44 billion to $3 billion. The company’s dividend coverage period also extended from approximately 14 months to 29 months.
Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings remained unchanged at 843,775 BTC, and the company has yet to conduct any preferred or common share buybacks.
STRC shares had fallen to a historical low of around $75 at the end of June. Following the announcement of the new framework and the increase in the dividend rate, the share price rose to approximately $88.
Despite this, STRC continues to trade below its nominal value of $100.
Moreno said the discount indicated that investors wanted to see Strategy sustainably implement its new financial discipline.
Moreno said, “The sustained discount indicates that the market wants to see the reserve strengthened and the new discipline maintained before fully repricing the security.”
According to CryptoQuant, two key questions remain unanswered in Strategy’s Bitcoin strategy.
The first is when the company will resume Bitcoin purchases.
Moreno stated that pausing Bitcoin purchases offered a solution to the short-term liquidity problem, but the new framework lacked a model-based rule for when accumulation should resume.
Strategy’s announced equity issuance policy, which it will implement when its mNAV ratio approaches 1, defines how the company will raise capital. However, according to Moreno, this rule does not explain when capital should be invested in Bitcoin.
Moreno stated, “Without a clear and valuation-focused model, the company risks repeating its tendency to buy Bitcoin at consistently local peaks whenever market conditions improve.”
The second point CryptoQuant highlights is whether Strategy will sell Bitcoin in the next bull market and under what rules those sales will be conducted.
Moreno stated that the current Bitcoin cash-out program has a defensive structure. The program allows Bitcoin sales to be used to finance dividends, interest, and share buybacks.
However, according to CryptoQuant, this plan does not offer a strategy for staggered selling or hedging positions as the market cycle approaches its peak.
Moreno said that such a sales framework could help the company reduce its debt, create value for shareholders, and build up cash reserves to repurchase Bitcoin during periods when the price falls to lower levels.
Moreno stated, “The disciplined selling approach throughout the market cycle, which constitutes the other half of active capital management, is still not defined.”
*This is not investment advice.
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Changpeng Zhao, the founder and former CEO of Binance, sparked discussion in the cryptocurrency community this week after making a pointed statement on X. Posting to his 2.5 million followers, Zhao wrote, “AI is great, but it does not protect you against inflation. Bitcoin does.” The message, delivered without further explanation, quickly attracted significant attention, registering over 1.3 million impressions.
Bitcoin’s scarcity vs. AI company dilutionZhao’s comparison drew a sharp distinction between Bitcoin, the world’s leading digital asset, and rapidly growing artificial intelligence stocks. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins offers unique scarcity, making it inherently resistant to inflationary forces caused by monetary expansion.
AI companies, in contrast, face no such cap. Firms in the artificial intelligence sector frequently issue new shares to raise capital, potentially diluting existing shareholders’ stakes. Such dilution, as well as the ability to accumulate debt and expand without limit, means AI equities can outpace inflation in nominal returns but may not shield investors from currency devaluation as effectively as Bitcoin.
Economic data suggests that traditional fiat currencies depreciate by approximately 6% to 7% annually. Meanwhile, government bonds have delivered negative inflation-adjusted returns during much of the past decade. AI-focused stocks have posted notable gains, but these gains reflect growth rather than protection against inflation.
Zhao outlined his perspective by stating that, while artificial intelligence offers significant technological and financial growth potential, Bitcoin alone provides explicit protection from inflation due to its capped supply.
Mini dictionary: Binance is one of the largest global cryptocurrency exchanges by trading volume, founded by Changpeng Zhao in 2017. The platform offers digital asset trading, futures, and various blockchain services to millions of users worldwide.
Recent price movements and market contextBitcoin is currently valued near $63,000, representing roughly a 50% decline from its all-time high. Following the release of softer-than-expected US producer price index figures, Bitcoin rebounded to above $65,000 as speculation around further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes diminished. Ethereum also benefited from the same macroeconomic environment, trading back above $1,900 during the same period.
AssetCurrent PriceAll-Time HighDrawdown (%)Bitcoin (BTC)$63,000$126,00050%Ethereum (ETH)$1,900$4,20055%Earlier this month, Zhao projected that Bitcoin may reach $1 million by 2033, citing historical growth patterns across market cycles. He noted that the previous cycle yielded a weaker return of about 2x, attributing this slowdown in part to capital flows shifting toward AI-related investments. Despite that competition, Zhao remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects as a store of value.
AI IPOs and shifting institutional capitalInvestor attention is also focusing on upcoming initial public offerings from major artificial intelligence companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic. These IPOs could prompt institutions to rotate capital from current holdings, such as cryptocurrency, into new AI equity positions. This competitive dynamic has raised questions about how investment flows between the two sectors may evolve.
Some cryptocurrency mining firms have begun shifting strategy to capitalize on the demand for AI computing infrastructure. TeraWulf, for example, is seeking funding for an AI-focused data center in collaboration with Anthropic, representing a significant move away from traditional crypto mining operations. Zhao has expressed interest in AI infrastructure and data center investments but continues to emphasize Bitcoin’s role in mitigating inflation risk.
Zhao maintains a clear distinction: Bitcoin is designed to resist inflation, while artificial intelligence represents a growth-oriented investment opportunity. He argues that investors should recognize these assets as fundamentally different vehicles in a diversified portfolio.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Bitcoin rebounded to nearly $64,000 on Saturday, regaining ground after a challenging week that saw losses triggered by a major advance in Chinese artificial intelligence and fading hopes for swift US crypto regulation.
Chinese AI milestone shifts market moodBTC traded at $63,972 in early Saturday trading, up from a weekly low of $62,505. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin had approached $65,000 following softer US inflation data that initially boosted sentiment across risk assets.
The mood changed sharply when Moonshot AI, a leading Beijing-based artificial intelligence company, introduced its Kimi K3 model—a large, open-weight AI system. In recent testing, Kimi K3 scored 1,679 points on a key frontend coding benchmark, overtaking Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5, which logged 1,631 points, and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 at 1,618.
Mini dictionary: Moonshot AI is a technology firm based in Beijing that focuses on developing advanced open-weight artificial intelligence models. Its Kimi K3 system is positioned as a leading competitor in AI-driven coding tasks.
Kimi K3 features 2.8 trillion parameters and employs a mixture-of-experts architecture, activating targeted sections for specific tasks. Full model weights are due for public release on July 27. The development signaled to markets that advanced AI models could become more accessible and less resource-intensive, challenging the prevailing view that top-tier AI requires expensive infrastructure.
Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 leapt to the top spot in the Frontend Code Arena with 1,679 points, surpassing previous leaders and highlighting rapid progress in China’s AI sector.
The influence of AI developments has been increasingly visible in financial markets. Bitcoin’s trading has shown a growing correlation with semiconductor and AI-related equities as both sectors attract substantial capital flows.
AI’s impact on Bitcoin mining operationsThe AI breakthrough presents fresh challenges for public Bitcoin mining firms that have shifted toward providing data center infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing. If AI models become more resource-efficient, the profitability of large-scale infrastructure deals may deteriorate, raising new questions for these firms’ strategies.
Market analyst Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin has so far failed to break above its recent trading range, with the 4-hour 200 EMA offering only temporary support before a bearish retest. He described the current pattern as “very choppy,” consistent with the quieter conditions often seen during summer months.
Ted Pillows emphasized the need for Bitcoin to reclaim the $65,000 level before a more convincing bullish move can emerge.
Technical outlook: Key levels and analyst forecastsTrading firm Castillo Trading projects that Bitcoin may target the $74,492 to $76,696 region in the next leg up, followed by a possible correction toward the $51,000 to $56,000 area. This upper target includes the 2025 yearly opening price and matches major volume-based resistance bands.
TargetPrice RangeShort-term resistance$74,492 – $76,696Potential correction zone$51,000 – $56,000Key support$60,000Key resistance$70,000Analyst Justin Bennett stated that liquidity models suggest Bitcoin might dip to $61,300, rally up toward $67,300, then see another short-term pullback unless it can decisively hold above $67,300.
Currently, Bitcoin trades in a channel with $60,000 as support and $70,000 as resistance, with the median near the higher end. Regaining $65,683 would be a significant milestone for buyers aiming for further gains in the months ahead.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The crypto industry has spent years debating whether the CLARITY Act will pass. Colin McCune, Head of Government Affairs at Andreessen Horowitz, wants to shift the conversation to a different question: what actually happens the moment it does?
The GENIUS Act Already Showed the Playbook
McCune did not have to speculate. He pointed to the GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation as a live case study of what regulatory clarity does to a market.
“There has been an absolute explosion of activity in the stablecoin space,” he said. “A lot of the new entrepreneurial talent coming in, the deal flow we see from a crypto fund perspective, is involved in stablecoins. All the big institutional money, all of the traditional financial players, are entering the space because it’s green light.”
Regulatory ambiguity keeps institutional capital on the sideline. The moment legislation signals a long-term commitment from Washington, that capital moves. According to McCune, the same dynamic would play out across the broader digital asset market the moment CLARITY passes.
The Part Most People Miss
McCune was emphatic about what he believes the market consistently underestimates when thinking about CLARITY’s impact.
The law itself matters less than what it signals. “It is a signal. It’s a signal that America is here and they’ve made a long-term decision and you can’t just go and undo it. That is the biggest thing people miss.”
His argument is that crypto’s deepest institutional capital problem is not about specific rules. It is about certainty. A framework that can be reversed by the next administration, the next regulator, or the next enforcement priority is not a framework that large institutions can build long-term businesses around. Passed legislation is different. It represents a durable commitment that allows companies, investors, and developers to make multi-year bets.
What Day One Actually Looks Like
McCune was open and said passing the bill is not the finish line. It is the starting gun for what he described as an equally important two-year window.
“Passing the bill is passing a framework. Then the regulators have to go and write the very specific rules and issue them. The next two years will also be a very productive and very important time while we watch the bill be implemented across the agencies.”
His expectation is that all of the pent-up talent and capital sitting on the sideline during the years of legislative uncertainty will be ready to move immediately. Developers who held back from launching products in the US, institutions that waited for legal clarity, and international capital that has been watching from a distance will all have their trigger pulled at roughly the same moment.
“In that period, things rip,” he said.
The AI Comparison
McCune also drew a direct comparison between what he expects from CLARITY and what has already happened in AI. As AI stocks and venture activity have surged following the emergence of clear commercial pathways, he believes crypto is positioned to experience an equivalent moment once its regulatory framework is settled. He described CLARITY as the thing that could yin and yang off the AI sector, creating a second major wave of institutional and entrepreneurial activity running in parallel to the AI buildout.
Where the Bill Stands
McCune remained firmly in the bullish camp on CLARITY’s passage despite the back and forth over ethics provisions, developer protections, and illicit finance language that has dominated recent headlines.
“I would be a very wealthy man if I had a nickel for every time someone told me the bill was dead,” he said. “It has died and been brought back to life a million times.”
He said behind-the-scenes conversations over the past month have been extremely positive and that a landing zone exists that works for both parties and for the industry. With the August recess as the deadline and a White House meeting with senators already scheduled, the next two weeks are the most consequential the bill has faced.
Story Ends Here
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As conversations around central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) continue in government and financial circles, an older document referencing Ripple and XRP has resurfaced in the debate regarding potential platforms for a European digital currency.
CPA Australia cites Ripple and XRP as a CBDC optionCrypto researcher SMQKE drew attention on X to a report by CPA Australia, which mentions that France has openly discussed utilizing Ripple and XRP as possible foundations for Europe’s central digital currency. The report highlights specific features of Ripple’s technology that were considered advantageous compared to other blockchain platforms.
The document refers to Ripple’s proposal to offer a private variant of the XRP Ledger designed for use by central banks. This initiative aims to deliver a solution where digital currencies can be issued and managed with enhanced security, control, and flexibility.
The CPA Australia report notes that “France has openly discussed Ripple/XRP as a possible platform to Europe’s central digital currency,” underlining favorable features including strong trust among banking institutions.
Comparison with Bitcoin and EthereumIn comparing various technologies, the CPA Australia document observes that central banks may require permissioned blockchain networks to meet their privacy, transaction speed, and scalability demands, which public systems like Bitcoin might not fulfill. The report argues that permissionless networks often struggle to meet transaction volume and confidentiality standards required for CBDCs.
According to CPA Australia, Ripple and XRP received support from banks due to their operation on a permissioned model, where only selected nodes validate transactions, in contrast to the decentralized and permissionless approach of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Building on these points, SMQKE asserted that XRP demonstrates superiority over Bitcoin and Ethereum when assessing suitability for projects such as the digital euro.
Mini dictionary: CPA Australia – An established accounting professional body in Australia, CPA Australia publishes research on financial standards, regulatory developments, and technology in the finance sector, including digital currencies.
PlatformModelBanking SuitabilityTransaction SpeedPrivacyRipple/XRPPermissioned / PrivateTrusted by many banksHighStrongBitcoinPermissionless / PublicLowSlowerLowEthereumPermissionless / PublicLowModerateLowThe report also acknowledges that some aspects of public blockchain architectures can conflict with central bank requirements. It notes, however, that by altering existing blockchain systems to increase control, security, and speed, central banks could meet the technical demands of CBDC initiatives.
Community reactions and regulatory contextResponses to SMQKE’s post emerged from within the XRP community. One prominent member, XRP Army Grunt, accepted that recent developments, such as the involvement of Ripple Prime in the DTCC’s tokenization launch, demonstrate real-world advancements, but emphasized that there is no confirmation of XRP being used by the DTCC or being officially chosen for the digital euro.
Another community contributor, Karla Milenia, shifted attention toward the regulatory environment in the United States. She stated that in the absence of CLARITY Act approval by U.S. lawmakers, crypto adoption could remain slow in the country while other regions continue advancing their digital asset regulations and CBDC developments more rapidly.
Community participants noted that, while Ripple and XRP are referenced in reports and several projects, no official decision has identified XRP as the chosen platform for the digital euro.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The Crypto Market gained 0.95% to reach $2.19 trillion on July 18, supported by improving regulatory expectations.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP registered slight improvements as institutional buying came back in exchange-traded funds. Traders also monitored developments around the CLARITY Act. It’s possible that Senate progress has encouraged hopes for clearer rules. It can also enhance the involvement of big investors around the world this week.
CLARITY Act Optimism Fuels Crypto Market Recovery The latest Crypto Market rebound was driven by regulatory optimism the most. Investors are increasingly pushing legislators to develop the CLARITY Act in the next week.
The bill would split the oversight duties between the key financial regulators in the United States. It can also designate Ethereum and some already established tokens as digital commodities.
The framework would help minimize uncertainty among the exchanges, developers, custodians, and institutional investors. Closer legal treatment will have the effect of making companies extend services without the fear of non-uniform enforcement.
In an interview on July 17, Representative Bryan Steil was optimistic about the progress in the Senate. The market participants then concentrated around potential vote between July 20 and July 24.
The odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 have dropped to 37%.
Do you guys think the Clarity Act will pass this year? pic.twitter.com/XnUG16KhNs
— Ted (@TedPillows) July 18, 2026
The confidence in the legislation was also improving with the predictions market estimates. On July 17, reported passage odds rose to 42% as compared to 30% on 2026. But Senate leaders have not ratified an official floor schedule. The odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 have dropped to 37%. Any respite would hasten to undermine feeling and strain new acquisitions.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Attract $168.73M in Inflows Institutional inflows provided another important boost for the Crypto Market. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reported an inflow of $132 million in net inflows on July 17.
Spot Ethereum funds attracted another $36.73 million during the same trading session. Total inflows as such amounted to 168.73 million, according to SoSoValue.
Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Record $132M and $36.73M in Net Inflows
According to SoSoValue data, on July 17 (ET), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $132 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs recorded total net inflows of $36.73 million. pic.twitter.com/LU7M0RQzbG
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 18, 2026
Bitcoin products also received $79.15 million on July 16. The fresh surge of demand came after a tough spell of withdrawals. The Bitcoins funds recorded a thirteen days outflow streak in June. The larger group also experienced eight weeks of consecutive negative flows.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Price Outlook Bitcoin price increased by 1.45% to trade around $64,095 in the latest session. The BTC price must hold support between $63,500 and $63,880.
Any stability above that level might prompt another challenge between the resistance of $65,000 and $65,500. A strong breakout may extend the wider Crypto Market rally. However, losing $63,500 could expose Bitcoin to the $62,500 support level.
Ethereum price gained 0.61% and traded around $1,845. Buyers are still interested in support that is near $1,810.
Coin360 The positioning of that level would lead to a potential move to the 100-day exponential moving average at around $1,940. A breakout is possible to award $2,000. Any weakness less than $1,810 may take Ethereum to the level of $1,790.
XRP price rose by 0.60% and traded at close to $1.09. The token should stay above $1.08. The resistance between $1.10 and $1.12 could then be targeted by the buyers. A decline to less than $1.08 can lead to losses to $1.05.
The flow of ETFs and the formal Senate planning of the forthcoming market direction will be closely monitored by traders. Still, momentum is weak, though.
Dogecoin is trading at a critical support level against both Bitcoin and the US dollar, marking a pivotal moment for the popular meme-inspired cryptocurrency. The outcome of this test may set the tone for DOGE’s price direction in the coming weeks.
Dogecoin faces a crucial monthly close versus BitcoinAgainst Bitcoin, Dogecoin is hovering near 0.00000114 BTC, a zone that has acted as a major support across several market cycles. This price area previously served as a base ahead of significant rallies, signaling its historical importance for DOGE traders.
Despite its role as a support, the DOGE/BTC pair has continued to post lower highs since its peak in 2021. This pattern highlights Bitcoin’s ongoing strength in the long-term trend, while suggesting that Dogecoin has struggled to regain its former momentum.
If the monthly close holds above this region, DOGE/BTC could attempt to establish a foundation for broader consolidation. However, analysts note that a bullish reversal would require DOGE to set a higher monthly low and reclaim nearby resistance zones, rather than simply stabilizing at current prices.
Should Dogecoin close below the established support, it would signal growing weakness in comparison to Bitcoin and could delay any sustained recovery. Until strength is confirmed, the DOGE/BTC chart remains at a crossroads, with traders watching for clearer direction.
Mini dictionary: DOGE/BTC – This trading pair measures the value of Dogecoin relative to Bitcoin, helping investors gauge each asset’s price strength in comparison to the other rather than the US dollar.
PairSupport LevelResistance LevelTrend since 2021 peakDOGE/BTC0.00000114 BTCVaries (nearby)Lower highsDOGE/USD$0.07$0.075–$0.081Descending trendlineDogecoin is approaching a long-term support zone against Bitcoin that has defined previous market cycles. Losing this level on a monthly closing basis could indicate ongoing weakness against Bitcoin and set back any attempt at a rebound.
DOGE price tests $0.07 as downtrend persistsDogecoin is also challenging a significant support area around $0.07 while trading just beneath a descending trendline that has capped its price for several months. Market participants see this confluence as a major decision point for the short-term outlook.
The descending trendline has consistently rejected attempts by DOGE to rally, placing downward pressure on its price action. Breaking above this line on strong volume would be a key signal that sellers are losing control and could draw renewed interest from buyers.
If Dogecoin manages a clear breakout and holds above the trendline, attention may shift to resistance zones near $0.075–$0.078 and, in a more optimistic scenario, up to $0.081. Conversely, failing to maintain support near $0.07 would leave DOGE exposed to potential declines towards $0.067 or $0.065.
Support at $0.07 is holding for now, but confirmation of a short-term reversal requires Dogecoin to close above the trendline that has defined its recent bearish structure.
With traders awaiting a decisive move, Dogecoin’s near-term prospects depend on whether buyers can defend this crucial level and trigger a sustained recovery.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The Clarity Act remains a major focus as the crypto market gains 1.27% to reach $2.19 trillion. Bitcoin price hovered above $64,000, supported by renewed institutional demand. Ethereum price was above $1,800, and XRP was close to $1.08. The Solana price was at hovering of 74, and the Cardano price was rising to $0.166.
Clarity Act Could Reshape Altcoin Regulation The Clarity Act prediction would divide digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC. The CFTC would supervise digital commodity spot markets. In the meantime, securities and fundraising would be under the jurisdiction of the SEC.
Proponents are hopeful that the framework will help in minimizing regulatory confusion within the United States. More definite regulations can enhance the trustworthiness of institutions and service providers.
However, the legislation has not passed the full Senate. President Donald Trump had a meeting with Senate Republicans, although the new text never came out. Polymarket traders later reduced the bill’s 2026 passage odds to 39%.
Source: Polymarketcap Representative Bryan Steil remained optimistic during a July 17 Fox News interview. He added that Senate approval would come the next week. Steil stressed the need for American regulatory standards.
XRP XRP price traded near $1.08 on Saturday amid cautious sentiment. Greater regulation may decrease the uncertainty around XRP transactions, exchange services, and institutional adoption. It may encourage banks and payment companies to explore XRP Ledger products.
Demand for spot XRP exchange-traded funds returned on Thursday. According to SoSoValue, the products drew in close to 7 million inflows each day. Cumulative inflows went up to approximately $1.49 billion.
The average net assets in listed funds were approximately 997 million. Further demand in ETFs may absorb the selling pressure and aid in a more stable recovery.
Source: Sososvalue data The first resistance is around 1.10, then 1.15 and 1.16. XRP price must reclaim $1.25 to weaken its broader bearish structure.
Immediate support is close to $1.03. A firm downward break below that may open XRP to a further fall.
Solana (SOL) Solana price rose 0.52% to $74 during the past day. Its performance trailed Bitcoin’s 1.69% gain.
SOL could benefit because it faced previous security-related allegations. Solana was the subject of enforcement cases accepted by the SEC against multiple cryptocurrency exchanges.
A distinct digital commodity structure would reduce compliance issues among exchanges, custodians, and investment managers. The change can facilitate greater institutional involvement.
Solana already has staking, payments, decentralized applications and tokenized assets. The increased confidence would speed up operations in these regions.
SOL price The future SOL outlook must hold support near $74 to protect its recovery attempt. An effective defense might result in resistance around $76.50.
Nevertheless, the possibility of losing $74 may lead to increased selling pressure. The second significant negative target would be around $69.60.
Cardano (ADA) Cardano price gained 3.82% to $0.166 during the past day. It increased at a greater rate than the overall market, which grew by about 1.24%.
ADA may receive the largest proportional benefit from the Clarity Act. This was not the first time that Cardano was experiencing uncertainty following past SEC security claims.
The agency was previously called ADA when it dealt with Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken. These allegations raised eyebrows among trade and institutional service providers.
Source: ADA/USD 4-hour chart: Tradingview The Cardano price should not be below $0.16 to safeguard its near-term structure. Holding that level could support another test of the $0.169 pivot.
Loss of momentum can undermine the recovery. A clear negative trend might drive ADA down to around the mark of support at $0.152.
