Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, is pacing through its most underperforming post-halving epoch to date.
The leading cryptocurrency is currently sitting below the $60,000 level, according to the CoinGecko data.
The significance of Bitcoin halvings The macroeconomic trajectory of Bitcoin has historically been dictated by its "halving" events. These events occur roughly every four years (or every 210,000 blocks).
They are perceived to be bullish because they reduce the issuance of new supply in half (less supply and more demand).
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Bitcoin's price performance is tracked by normalizing returns from Day 0 (the day of the halving) across a full 1,460-day (four-year) epoch.
Historically, each cycle passes through three psychological and technical phases. The "hype" period is traditionally dominated by supply-shock dynamics, intense speculation, and parabolic price appreciation leading to a cycle macro peak.
During the "disillusionment" phase, multi-month crypto winters are characterized by severe drawdowns, capitulation events, and sideways grinding.
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Finally, steady accumulation and recovery take place during the "enlightenment" phase, where the market builds a structural floor ahead of the next halving event.
Bitcoin used to experience massive returns during its post-halving cycles, and some bulls assumed that this would be the case this time around. During the previous cycle, BTC experienced diminishing marginal returns but remained profitable. It concluded its 1,460-day journey in April 2024 at a baseline price of $63,514.
However, during the current cycle, the flagship coin failed to record a traditional "Hype" phase rally. It had been grinding sideways before collapsing and moving to the"Disillusionment" phase.
The orange line has plummeted below the baseline. This means investors who acquired Bitcoin at the time of the 2024 halving are now sitting on net negative returns (which is quite unprecedented).
As reported by U.Today, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz recently opined that the cryptocurrency is suffering from the crisis surrounding the leading corporate BTC holder Strategy, as well as concerns about a potential interest rate hike.
A short but busy week lies ahead on the US economic calendar, while markets need to digest the re-escalation of military action in the Middle East.
Crypto markets remained flat over the weekend following a week of heavy losses that saw a further $140 billion leave the space. Military action in the Middle East resumed with the US conducting strikes on Iranian military targets at multiple locations in response to Iran’s drone attack on a commercial ship.
Meanwhile, the TradFi fear and greed index is now down to 24.8, the lowest since early April, reported the Kobeissi Letter. The week ahead is heavy with labor market data, which could further influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Economic Events June 29 to July 3 Monday will see the market’s reaction to the resumption of military action, and crypto is already in the red as Bitcoin fails to hold $60,000.
The economic data begins on Tuesday with May JOLTs Job Openings data and June’s CB Consumer Confidence report. These are followed on Wednesday by June’s ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which provides insights into industrial sector health and business conditions.
The big report of the week is the June Jobs report, which comes out on Thursday and may shape the direction of rates and markets, possibly into September, as it is the only employment report the Fed receives before its July meeting.
Continued labor market weakness would validate stagflation concerns about supporting growth versus containing prices, reported BarChart.
A hot report would result in higher rates priced in, which makes conditions tougher for risk assets such as crypto. However, the market is priced for a soft number, so the bigger danger would be a surprise to the upside.
You may also like: Bitcoin and Gold Are Bleeding – So Where Is the Money Going? Ripple CEO Praises XRP, Questions Strategy’s Impact on Bitcoin and Crypto Prediction: Bitcoin Could Bottom Between $42K and $44K This Year Key Events This Week:
1. US Markets React to Strait of Hormuz Strikes – Today
2. May JOLTs Job Openings data – Tuesday
3. June CB Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday
4. June ISM Manufacturing PMI data – Wednesday
5. June Jobs Report – Thursday
6. US Markets Closed, Happy 4th…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 28, 2026
Crypto Market Outlook The overall outlook is not good, with negative sentiment increasing in the depths of a crypto winter. Total capitalization has fallen to its lowest level since September 2024 at $2.13 trillion, with Bitcoin leading losses as capitulation continues.
BTC lost 1.5% on the day, falling back to $59,000 during the Monday morning trading session in Asia before recovering slightly. It is currently hovering at critical support; if lost, it could trigger a rapid drop to the realized price of around $53,000, a historical bear market bottom.
ETH is already at its multi-year bear market bottom, struggling to make any moves above $1,570 and weakening by the hour.
Crypto opened Monday flat. Bitcoin traded near $59,700, down 0.3% on the day and 6.8% on the week, as a de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict lifted equity futures but left digital assets unmoved, per CoinDesk data.
Ether edged up 0.3% to $1,572, Solana added 1.5%, while XRP and dogecoin continued to slide.
Axios reported Sunday that the U.S. and Iran agreed to fully halt strikes and meet this week in Qatar to resume talks over the Strait of Hormuz and a broader end to the conflict. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.5% as of Monday, but crypto did not follow.
The non-reaction fits the pattern of the past two weeks. Bitcoin jumped on the peace deal signing June 19, then gave it back as the hawkish Fed and ETF outflows reasserted. Traders have now been burned by enough geopolitical relief rallies that the Qatar meeting registers as a maybe rather than a catalyst.
South Korea announced plans to double DRAM production capacity in the Seoul metro area over five years, with Samsung and SK Hynix committing 800 trillion won, about $518 billion, to build four new fabrication plants.
Asian tech hardware shares slid on the rotation, even as eight of eleven MSCI Asia Pacific subgroups gained. The same AI chip trade that whipsawed markets last week remains the dominant cross-asset current.
The test for crypto this week is whether the Iran talks in Qatar produce anything durable, and whether Thursday's PCE print softens enough to shift the Fed narrative. Both need to land to give bitcoin a reason to move.
The crypto market is going through a new period of uncertainty and explanations are multiplying. For Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the former head of Binance, this correction is the result of a cocktail mixing geopolitical tensions, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), and the natural Bitcoin cycle. A relevant analysis… but not without limitations.
In brief Changpeng Zhao attributes the crypto decline to geopolitics, the rise of AI, and the Bitcoin cycle. The Bitcoin four-year cycle remains relevant, but it is no longer enough to explain the market. Crypto now depends as much on the macroeconomic context as on Bitcoin’s performance. CZ identifies three main causes for the decline in crypto For Changpeng Zhao, the current correction of the crypto market cannot be reduced to a simple market downturn. In a recent interview, CZ puts forward three explanations which, according to him, strengthen each other.
The first concerns geopolitical tensions. In a more unstable international context, investors favor assets considered safer and reduce their exposure to the most volatile markets, including crypto. The second factor is more original. Changpeng Zhao believes that artificial intelligence today attracts a significant share of speculative capital. For two years, AI-related companies have concentrated much of investors’ interest, to the detriment of crypto. Finally, the former Binance leader recalls that Bitcoin historically follows a four-year cycle, marked by a strong rise after each halving followed by sometimes sharp correction. However, this reading deserves nuance. Indeed, Bitcoin ETFs, the rise of institutional investors, and an unprecedented macroeconomic environment make the market more complex than before. The cycle probably still exists, but it no longer explains everything alone.
Does the Bitcoin rhythm still dominate the crypto market? For more than a decade, Bitcoin has imposed its tempo on the entire crypto market. When it rose, altcoins followed. When it fell, the whole ecosystem plunged. This correlation remains strong, but it is no longer as mechanical as before. Today, the market is influenced by many external factors. Central bank decisions, flows to Bitcoin ETFs, geopolitical tensions, and the performance of the AI sector deeply change investors’ behaviors… As observed by Changpeng Zhao.
However, Bitcoin remains the main sentiment indicator, even if it is no longer the sole engine of crypto. Furthermore, institutional investors prioritize macroeconomic data over patterns observed during previous halvings. In other words, BTC retains a central role, but its influence is now embedded in a much broader environment. The real question is no longer whether the market follows Bitcoin, but to what extent it still can dictate the trend.
Changpeng Zhao’s analysis sheds interesting light on the current weakness of the crypto market, without answering all questions. Bitcoin remains an essential reference, but its influence evolves with the maturation of the sector. Are we witnessing the end of the famous four-year BTC cycle or simply its adaptation?
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Eddy S.
The world is evolving and adaptation is the best weapon to survive in this undulating universe. Originally a crypto community manager, I am interested in anything that is directly or indirectly related to blockchain and its derivatives. To share my experience and promote a field that I am passionate about, nothing is better than writing informative and relaxed articles.
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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Foreign investors pulled massive capital out of South Korea's stock market, with net sales of KOSPI stocks hitting a new single-day record on Monday.
Foreign investors net sold KOSPI stocks worth 7.7 trillion won (approximately $4.98 billion) on Monday, marking the largest single-day sell-off on record.
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The A-share semiconductor sector turned higher following South Korean stocks, with Huahai Qingke surging 19.01%.
On Monday morning, the A-share semiconductor sector briefly tracked a pullback in related South Korean stocks. The KOSDAQ index triggered a program trading circuit breaker during intraday trading, with a maximum drop of 3.8%. Chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix saw sharp opening dips, but the decline was soon halted by news of a new round of expansion in South Korea's storage chip chain. Earlier in the afternoon, the South Korean government released its latest industrial plan. President Lee Jae-myung stated that South Korea must push forward with the construction of chip production facilities as soon as possible, as existing industrial parks are approaching their carrying limits in terms of water resources and infrastructure. Going forward, the country will focus on expanding semiconductor supply capacity through investments in its southwestern region. Under the plan, South Korea plans to build four chip manufacturing plants in the southwestern region, with a total investment of about 800 trillion won, and will allocate at least 30 trillion won over the next 15 years to semiconductor sectors including next-generation memory, edge AI, and defense. In response to the news, South Korea's KOSPI index turned from decline to gain in the afternoon, while related A-share stocks rebounded in tandem. Among them, Huahong Qingke surged 19.01%, Microtech Corporation rose 8.58%, Anji Technology gained 9.46%, Shanghai Silicon Industry climbed 11.30%, Coremax increased 9.06%, and Huace Testing & Control advanced 10.21%.
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Japan and South Korea's stock markets closed higher.
According to Bitget market data, the Nikkei 225 index closed up 107.23 points on Monday, June 29, with a 0.15% gain, ending at 69,468.11 points, after earlier dropping more than 1%. South Korea’s KOSPI index rose 5.62 points on the same day, a 0.07% increase, closing at 8,416.83 points; the country’s KOSDAQ (its main tech-focused index) gained over 8% in the session. After Samsung and SK unveiled their investment plans, the KOSPI index erased a decline of up to 3.4% to turn positive intraday, while small-cap benchmark KOSDAQ also rebounded.
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Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister: Convening the First Meeting of the Iran-Oman Joint Commission on the Strait of Hormuz
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister announced that the first meeting of the Iran-Oman Joint Commission on the Strait of Hormuz was held.
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Online reports indicate that South Korea’s previously expected aggressive investment of 2000 trillion won has materialized at 800 trillion won, easing market sentiment and triggering a minor rebound in the stock prices of Samsung and SK Hynix.
Hyperinsight’s monitoring shows that South Korea’s semiconductor sector rebounded in the afternoon. The previously-feared 2,000 trillion won investment plan was ultimately realized as a semiconductor project worth around 800 trillion won (approx. $518 billion). This is likely because capital expenditure pressure fell short of some market participants’ expectations, leading to eased risk aversion and narrowed losses. On Hyperliquid, SK Hynix (1H) rebounded by 4.5% at one point, currently quoted at $1,730; Samsung Electronics rose 2%, currently at $214. Currently, the average entry price of long positions for large holders of the two on-chain assets is $1,608 and $217.3 respectively, with Samsung Electronics trading below the moving average of long-position whales.
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SK Group Chairman: Memory shortage will persist
SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won: Even if SK Hynix speeds up its factory construction, memory shortages will persist. (Jinshi)
Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of its weakest periods following the 2024 halving, with the top cryptocurrency trading below $60,000 according to CoinGecko data. This development stands out in the market, as previous post-halving periods have historically been marked by strong price performances.
The typical halving cycle has broken downThe Bitcoin halving event, which occurs every four years or every 210,000 blocks, is designed to halve the rate at which new coins are created, typically serving as a supportive mechanism for price growth. In previous cycles, market participants observed this supply shock resulting in significant upward momentum and strong returns.
Price performance is tracked over a full 1,460-day cycle, starting from each halving event. Historically, these cycles unfolded in three phases. The first phase generally saw rapid gains driven by the supply shock and heightened speculation. This was followed by sharp sell-offs, extended periods of sideways trading, and a final recovery in the approach to the next halving.
Investors who bought Bitcoin during the 2024 halving now face clear negative returns in the current cycle.
Weaker results compared to previous cyclesIn previous cycles, the period following the halving delivered exceptionally high returns for Bitcoin investors. While the latest cycle saw a slowdown in gains, it still ended profitably, with the 1,460-day timeframe closing in April 2024 at a base price of $63,514.
However, this current cycle has not repeated the pattern of post-halving rallies. After a period of sideways movement, Bitcoin turned lower, disappointing those who anticipated a strong surge on the heels of the halving.
IndicatorPrevious cycleCurrent cycleInitial post-halving outlookPositive returnsNegative returnsPrice actionRally phase observedSideways, then declineCycle closing level$63,514Below $60,000Macroeconomic pressures dominate the marketChart analysis indicates the line representing the current cycle has dipped below its initial starting point, suggesting that investors who bought during the 2024 halving are now in loss territory. Experts note that this pattern is unusual compared to previous post-halving trends.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz attributes the pressure on Bitcoin to ongoing anxieties around industry strategies and concerns over potential interest rate hikes. Galaxy Digital, headquartered in the US, is a major player specializing in digital asset investment and blockchain technology.
Mike Novogratz explained that the stress on Bitcoin stems from both the crisis of confidence around industry strategies and fears of further rate hikes.
As the market looks ahead, the primary question is whether Bitcoin can rebuild a structural base in the later stages of the current post-halving cycle. For now, data suggest the typical robust recovery seen in previous cycles is notably absent this time around.
Despite hopes for a repeat of historical patterns, the current environment has proven less resilient, forcing investors to reconsider their expectations in the aftermath of the 2024 halving.
With macroeconomic uncertainty clouding the outlook and hallmark technical patterns failing to deliver, analysts remain watchful for signals of a potential turnaround or further market weakness in the months ahead.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) are showing early signs of stabilization on Monday after a correction of nearly 6%, 8% and 7%, respectively, over the previous week. BTC reclaims $60,000, ETH is holding firmly above the critical $1,500 support level, while XRP is also attempting to stabilize around the key $1.00 psychological level. The price action of these top three cryptocurrencies is raising hopes of a short-term recovery after massive corrections.
Bitcoin's mild recovery after a sharp correctionBitcoin price recovers slightly, trading above $60,000, after losing over 6% in the previous week. However, BTC is maintaining a bearish bias as price remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $66,971, $70,592, and $76,516, respectively.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers near the zero line with a marginally negative reading, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33 sits just above oversold territory, hinting at fading bearish momentum but not yet signaling a decisive recovery.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier around $64,004, ahead of the 50-day EMA at $66,971 and the 100-day EMA at $70,591, which collectively cap the upside and reinforce the broader downbeat structure. Further up, the 200-day EMA at $76,516 and the prior horizontal level at $84,410 form a wider resistance band that would need to be cleared for the medium-term outlook to shift back to bullish. The absence of nearby defined support leaves the pair vulnerable to further downside probes if selling pressure resumes.
Ethereum could rebound if the $1,500 support holdsEthereum price trades at $1,585 on Monday, finding support around the key $1,500 support zone. However, ETH is maintaining a bearish bias, with price remaining well below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs at $1,833, $2,010, and $2,290, respectively. ETH is attempting to stabilize after the recent slide, with the RSI ticking up to 33, just above oversold territory. At the same time, the MACD has turned marginally positive, hinting at fading downside momentum rather than a decisive bullish reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50-day EMA near $1,833, ahead of the horizontal barrier at $2,000 and the 100-day EMA at $2,010, with the 200-day EMA at $2,290 reinforcing a broader cap on recovery attempts.
On the downside, the next meaningful support is seen at the $1,500 key psychological level, followed by the previously identified horizontal level around $1,385.00, where buyers could attempt to defend the medium-term floor if selling pressure resumes.
XRP steadies at key $1 markXRP price trades at $1.0542, maintaining a clear bearish bias as it sits well below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs at $1.2060, $1.3123, and $1.5231, respectively. Price also holds below the downward parallel channel reference at $1.1879 and the horizontal cap at $1.3000, reinforcing a technically capped structure. The RSI at 33 stays in weak territory just above oversold, while the MACD remains slightly negative, both indicators hinting that bearish momentum persists, albeit without a fresh acceleration.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the parallel channel level around $1.1879, followed by the nearby horizontal barrier at $1.3000 and the 50-day EMA at $1.2060. Additional supply is clustered higher at the 100-day EMA at $1.3123 and the 200-day EMA at $1.5231. A more distant structural ceiling emerges at the horizontal line near $1.9000.
On the downside, the next meaningful support is seen at the $1.000 key psychological level. Below this level, renewed selling could leave XRP vulnerable to further downside extension until new demand zones emerge on the chart.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Cryptocurrency prices FAQs Token launches influence demand and adoption among market participants. Listings on crypto exchanges deepen the liquidity for an asset and add new participants to an asset’s network. This is typically bullish for a digital asset.
A hack is an event in which an attacker captures a large volume of the asset from a DeFi bridge or hot wallet of an exchange or any other crypto platform via exploits, bugs or other methods. The exploiter then transfers these tokens out of the exchange platforms to ultimately sell or swap the assets for other cryptocurrencies or stablecoins. Such events often involve an en masse panic triggering a sell-off in the affected assets.
Macroeconomic events like the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates influence crypto assets mainly through the direct impact they have on the US Dollar. An increase in interest rate typically negatively influences Bitcoin and altcoin prices, and vice versa. If the US Dollar index declines, risk assets and associated leverage for trading gets cheaper, in turn driving crypto prices higher.
Halvings are typically considered bullish events as they slash the block reward in half for miners, constricting the supply of the asset. At consistent demand if the supply reduces, the asset’s price climbs.
Historic bleed at Wall Street! According to Farside data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs just suffered a colossal loss of 1.79 billion dollars in net outflows in a single week. This is the second worst performance since their launch in January 2024. Between Grayscale’s (GBTC) capitulation and BlackRock’s slowdown, the institutional market seems to be faltering. Simple technical correction or major distress signal before a deeper decline? Here’s the full update.
In brief US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost 1.79 billion dollars in the week ending June 26, 2026. This is the second worst week in these funds’ history and their 7th consecutive week of net outflows. BlackRock IBIT accounts for about 73% of the week’s withdrawals, with an average unrealized loss of 40% for its investors. Ethereum ETFs confirm the same trend: marked slowdown in institutional demand. A historic week for Bitcoin ETFs Launched in January 2024, the spot Bitcoin ETFs were hailed as a revolution in the United States. Proof: they raised tens of billions of dollars within months. Enough to propel the BTC price to historic highs. But the week of June 26, 2026 marks a turning point.
With 1.79 billion dollars in net outflows over five trading days, these funds have recorded their second worst weekly performance since inception. The only worse week was at the end of February 2025, which saw 2.61 billion dollars evaporate in a few days.
What fundamentally distinguishes the current situation from the 2025 episode is its duration. In February 2025, the correction was sharp but short. Here, seven weeks have passed without a single week of positive flows from the spot Bitcoin ETFs. For analysts, this persistence is the most worrisome signal.
Bitcoin ETF flows (Source: Farside) According to Farside data, Thursday, June 25, 2026 alone saw 696.29 million dollars in net outflows in a single session. The weekly record! Moreover, almost all of the outflows on June 25 exclusively came from BlackRock IBIT. In one day, this fund saw nearly 7,440 BTC withdrawn. That represents about 691.7 million dollars.
The ETF negative flow crisis is not limited to Bitcoin The US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded 273.34 million dollars in net withdrawals during the same week. This also marks their seventh consecutive week of outflows. June 25 alone saw 82 million dollars in withdrawals from ETH ETFs, while the Ethereum price plunged around $1,510. This wiped out nearly 31 billion dollars in market capitalization.
This synchronization between Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF outflows is significant. It suggests a movement of reducing overall crypto asset exposure by institutional investors.
Chart showing Ethereum ETF flows over a 30-day period (Source: Glassnode) Beyond ETF flows, onchain data paints the same picture. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase and international exchanges, remains in negative territory. A negative premium indicates that US demand is weaker than global demand. This is a bearish signal for US institutional sentiment.
That’s not all! Onchain data also shows a net capital outflow from the Bitcoin network in the recent period, rather than an inflow.
ETF reserves have dropped by more than 63,000 BTC in the last month. The total assets under management of all US spot Bitcoin ETFs fell from a peak of about 170 billion dollars in 2025 to approximately 73 billion today. The current dynamics of Bitcoin ETFs highlight the crypto market’s current dependence on traditional capital flows from Wall Street. The next decisive indicator: the eighth week, and what the Fed will say by then.
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Ariela R.
My name is Ariela, and I am 31 years old. I have been working in the field of web writing for 7 years now. I only discovered trading and cryptocurrency a few years ago, but it is a universe that greatly interests me. The topics covered on the platform allow me to learn more. A singer in my spare time, I also cultivate a great passion for music and reading (and animals!)
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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Leading cryptocurrencies traded in the red overnight on Sunday as renewed U.S.–Iran confrontations threatened a fragile ceasefire.
Crypto Market In Deep SlumberBitcoin attempted a breakout above $60,000, only to encounter sharp selling pressure that drove it below $59,000. Ethereum meandered in the $1,500 region, while trading volume rose 10% over the last 24 hours. XRP and Dogecoin traded in the red.
Over $180 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, overwhelmingly from longs, according to Coinglass data
Bitcoin’s open interest fell 0.69% over the last 24 hours. Smart money sentiment remained "extremely bearish," but traders on Binance, both retail and whales, increased their long exposure.
"Extreme Fear" sentiment prevailed in the market, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
Top Gainers (24 Hours)
The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.02 trillion, following a decline of 3.38% over the last 24 hours.
Stocks Rally On Hopes Of De-escalationStock futures ticked higher overnight on Sunday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures jumped 147 points, or 0.29%, as of 8:45 p.m. EDT. Futures tied to the S&P 500 climbed 0.40%, while Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.19%.
Tensions escalated during the weekend after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire following an alleged ceasefire violation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Later, a Trump administration official reportedly said that the two sides will “stand down for now” and let vessels move freely in the critical oil shipping point.
‘Pretty Interesting Signal’Popular cryptocurrency commentator Michaël van de Poppe speculated on Bitcoin’s moves once it breaks back above $61,000.
“It would strengthen the thesis of the bullish divergence, and the markets can target the $65,000 resistance [and old support of the range] as the next target zone,” the analyst said. “The fact that the markets aren’t falling deeper with all the panic and fear combined is actually a pretty interesting signal.”
Ali Martinez, a widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader, said that heavy selling by whales, roughly $880 million over the past week, pushed Ethereum below its key support at $1,633
“If this distribution trend continues into next week, the next high-volume demand targets for ETH sit much lower at $1,237 and $1,089,” Martinez said.
Photo Courtesy: vinnstock on Shutterstock.com
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The broader cryptocurrency market continues to trade under pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) struggling for direction near $60,000 on Monday. Retail sentiment in crypto leans bearish, with CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index at 15 on Monday, maintaining a sideways trend deep in the “Extreme Fear” zone.
Fear and Greed Index. Source: CoinMarketCapAmid bearish market pressure, Zcash (ZEC) and Jupiter (JUP) are the leading losers over the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin’s uncertainty near $60,000 signals rebound chancesBitcoin hovers below $60,000 at press time on Monday, maintaining a near-term mixed bias. The consolidation near the $60,000 support level reflects bullish resilience guarding the downside to the July 5, 2024, low of $53,485.
The 50- and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) at $66,946 and $76,645, respectively, are well above the price, reinforcing a medium-term capped structure. That said, the momentum conditions remain fragile on the daily chart, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just above the oversold threshold near 30, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips marginally below its signal line, suggesting persistent downside pressure.
BTC/USDT daily price chart.On the topside, immediate resistance above the psychological $60,000 level is the $65,000 round figure, followed by the 50-day EMA at about $66,946.
Zcash hits a make-or-break levelZcash hovers around $375 on Monday, holding steady below the 200-day EMA at $381 after two days of losses. The near-term bias remains bearish, testing the 50% retracement level at $356, measured over the upswing from $184 to $390.
The RSI at 37 shows a pullback from the midline as buying pressure wanes, while the MACD extends below the signal line in the negative territory as the downside histogram expands, hinting at dominant selling pressure.
Looking up, the 200- and 50-day EMAs at $381 and $455 emerge as key upside barriers, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $520.
ZEC/USDT daily price chart.On the downside, support emerges at the 50% retracement at $356, followed by the 23.6% retracement around $251, ahead of the broader cycle floor near 184.57, where buyers would be expected to more firmly challenge the prevailing bearish structure if reached.
Jupiter capped by key resistance risks fresh lowsJupiter trades close to the $0.2000 psychological mark on Monday, after two consecutive days of losses. The two-day decline reflects a bearish turnaround from an overhead resistance trendline near $0.2350, which capped Jupiter's fourth recovery attempt since October 2025.
A decisive close above this trendline could start a recovery run toward the November 27 high at $0.2662, followed by the October 11 low at $0.3255.
The MACD and signal line risk a bearish crossover, while the RSI at 54 flips downside from the overbought boundary, suggesting a decline in bullish momentum.
JUP/USDT daily price chart.On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA at $0.1950, and a daily close back below this level would weaken the current bullish tone and expose the pair to a deeper corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
In the cryptocurrency market, most major assets are maintaining a weak technical outlook as pressure continues on XRP, SHIB, and Bitcoin. Despite attempts at short-term rebounds, the overall downward trend remains dominant for many leading coins. However, Solana is distinguishing itself with greater resilience following the recent corrections, outpacing its peers with a more stable chart.
Technical weakness dominates XRP and SHIBXRP, which spent months flatlining between $1.30 and $1.50, has broken down below this range, accelerating its decline. This break confirms a bearish continuation pattern, bringing prices perilously close to the psychologically significant $1.00 support. Technical indicators show that XRP remains under intense selling, with prices well below the 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages.
The critical level to watch for XRP is the $1.00 threshold. A decisive drop below this support could unleash a fresh wave of selling.
The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to 32, edging near the oversold territory. While this may suggest the pace of the downturn could slow, it’s generally insufficient on its own to signal a lasting bottom amid such strong bearish momentum. Should buyers hold the $1.00 area, a recovery toward the $1.14–$1.15 band, where the 50 day exponential moving average lies, could materialize.
SHIB exhibits a similarly bearish pattern, recently breaking below a rising wedge formation. This setup typically signals further downward moves, and SHIB has failed to show any meaningful recovery since. Like XRP, SHIB is trading below all main moving averages and remains near its recent local lows.
The 50 day EMA continues to act as dynamic resistance for SHIB, and recent bounce attempts have not seen a convincing rise in trading volume. This hints that buyers have yet to assert real power. The RSI has dropped sharply to 21, deeply into oversold territory. Still, overall momentum remains with the sellers.
Bitcoin grapples to hold its support regionBitcoin is struggling to stay above the $60,000 level, remaining under intense pressure. The crucial uptrend line that fueled the market’s April and May rebound has now been broken, signaling that the medium-term bullish structure has given way to renewed bearish control. The 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages all sit well above current price levels, reinforcing this negative outlook.
The most critical support for Bitcoin lies between $58,000 and $60,000. Losing this zone could spark a surge in forced liquidations.
Increasing volumes during the recent correction phase point to direct selling pressure, rather than simply a lack of buying. Bitcoin’s RSI hovers near 32, suggesting a short-term rebound may be possible. However, unless prices reclaim the 50 day EMA around $64,000, the primary trend remains challenged.
AssetCritical supportInitial resistanceRSIXRP$1.00$1.14 to $1.1532Bitcoin$58,000 to $60,000Around $64,00032Solana$63 to $65$72 then around $7749Solana stands out with relative strengthIn contrast, Solana is displaying more resilience compared to Bitcoin. Following a steep pullback at the start of June, buyers stepped in forcefully at the $63 to $65 support, helping the price remain above regional lows. The long-term structure is not yet entirely bullish, as SOL also trades under all major moving averages.
However, Solana’s price is now stabilizing near the 50 day EMA around $72 and forming higher lows. This divergence is seen as a positive signal, especially as most other top cryptocurrencies are hitting new local lows. The RSI has climbed back up to 49, suggesting selling pressure has notably subsided.
Solana’s attempted recoveries have translated into rising trading volumes, a sign of strengthening buyer interest. In the short term, holding $72 as support will be critical. Success there could see a move towards the 100 day moving average near $77. If Solana fails to maintain its current level, the $63 support will once again come into focus.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Cover image via depositphotos.com Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
With price action still adhering to a distinct bearish structure, XRP is still among the market's weakest large-cap assets. XRP broke below the range and accelerated lower after consolidating between about $1.30 and $1.50 for several months. The asset was driven toward the psychologically significant $1.00 support level by the breakdown, which validated a bearish continuation pattern.
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of XRP are all technically above its current price, reflecting a downward slope. Usually, this alignment means that sellers are still in complete control. The RSI is getting close to oversold territory at 32, indicating that the short-term downside momentum may be running out. However, during severe downtrends, oversold conditions by themselves seldom indicate a bottom.
XRP/USDT Chart by TradingViewThe crucial level to keep an eye on is $1.00. Another wave of selling could be sparked by a clear break below it, opening the door to lower support zones. On the other hand, XRP might experience a relief rally toward the 50-day EMA at $1.14-$1.15 if buyers are able to hold this area. Until the asset regains significant moving averages, the trend remains negative.
HOT Stories
Shiba Inu forms a breakdown SHIB is displaying a quite similar structure. Recently, the asset broke out of a rising wedge formation, which frequently precedes bearish continuation moves. SHIB has not established a significant recovery since the breakdown and is still trading close to local lows. SHIB is still below all of the major moving averages, just like XRP.
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The 50-day EMA is preventing buyers from creating long-term momentum by acting as dynamic resistance. Recent attempts at a bounce have not seen a significant increase in volume, suggesting that bulls are not very confident. SHIB is firmly in oversold territory as the RSI has dropped toward 21.
The overall trend still favors sellers, even though this increases the likelihood of a short-term recovery. The recently broken wedge structure and the 50-day moving average are likely to present obstacles for any recovery attempt.
The current move appears to be more of a continuation of the larger downtrend than the start of a true reversal unless SHIB can recover those levels.
Pressure on Bitcoin remainsDespite its efforts to stabilize above the $60,000 mark, Bitcoin is still under significant pressure. The medium-term bullish structure was effectively terminated and a return to bearish control was confirmed when the asset broke away from an ascending trendline that had sustained the recovery rally from April to May.
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of Bitcoin are all significantly above the current price on the chart. The market has lost a lot of momentum during the most recent correction, as evidenced by the 200-day moving average near $76,000 becoming a distant resistance level. Additionally, recent attempts at a bounce have not been successful in regaining the 50-day EMA, indicating that sellers still control every relief rally. At 32, the RSI is getting close to oversold territory.
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Although this might encourage a temporary recovery, the overall trend is still negative. Crucially, volume increased throughout the sell-off, suggesting true distribution as opposed to just a lack of buyers. The $58,000-$60,000 support zone is a crucial level to keep an eye on.
Another wave of liquidation pressure could hit the market if Bitcoin loses this area. On the other hand, the first sign that the bearish momentum is starting to wane would be a rebound above the 50-day EMA around $64,000. Until then, sellers continue to have the upper hand and Bitcoin remains stuck in a downtrend.
Solana's breakout potential Solana is showing remarkable resilience in contrast to Bitcoin. Even though SOL saw a significant drop earlier in June, buyers intervened forcefully near the $63-$65 support range, keeping the asset above regional lows.
Technically, SOL is still below its major moving averages, indicating that the long-term trend is still negative. The asset has started to consolidate around the 50-day EMA at $72, and it recently produced a higher low. Many large-cap cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, continue to set new lows. After a period of oversold conditions, the RSI has recovered toward 49, returning to neutral territory.
SOL/USDT Chart by TradingViewThis suggests that selling pressure has significantly decreased. During recent recovery attempts, volume has also increased, indicating real buyer involvement. Regaining the 50-day EMA and establishing support above $72 is the bulls' immediate challenge. A move toward the 100-day moving average near $77 is more likely if that happens.
In the event that current levels are not maintained, the $63 support zone would become more prominent. Even though there is currently no proof of a complete trend reversal, SOL remains one of the more promising assets among the major cryptocurrencies.
Predict.fun’s first World Cup knockout match: Canada vs South Africa, with Canada holding a 58% win probability.
Data from prediction market platform Predict.fun indicates that the first knockout match of the 2026 Canada-Mexico-USA World Cup’s 32-team knockout stage is approaching. The clash between Canada and South Africa will kick off at 3 a.m. Beijing time today. Current predicted win probabilities stand at 58% for Canada (CAN), 16% for South Africa (RSA), and a 27% chance of a draw. The data shows that the market has given higher support to the Canadian national team’s overall strength ahead of the match.
5 hours ago
Predict.fun Launches World Cup 32-Team Knockout Stage Event, Remaining Prize Pool Exceeds $1.1 Million
According to an official announcement from Predict.fun, the knockout stage of the World Cup’s 32-team tournament has officially launched, with the platform simultaneously upgrading its Predict Cup event mechanism. For this knockout round, Predict.fun will open 11 prediction markets per match and boost Fan Points rewards. The official added that the ongoing event still has a prize pool of over $1.1 million up for grabs, with rewards disbursed immediately after each knockout match’s conclusion. Notably, the Canada vs. South Africa match is set to kick off in under 3 hours, with a direct $25,000 reward allocated for this fixture, giving users more frequent chances to participate and win. Predict.fun stated that as the knockout stage commences, the platform will incentivize users to actively join World Cup prediction markets and compete for subsequent prize pool rewards via more markets, higher point rewards, and a more frequent reward distribution system.
5 hours ago
Predict.fun World Cup Group Stage $840,000 Event Rewards Now Available for Claiming
According to official announcements from Predict.fun, rewards for the World Cup group stage event are now available for collection, with the current prize pool totaling $840,000. The platform noted that users who participated and secured rewards during the group stage can now claim them via the platform. With the conclusion of the 32-team group stage, the number of World Cup-related markets on Predict.fun has risen from the initial 6 to 11, providing more trading and points-chasing opportunities for new participants. For the upcoming knockout stage, the platform will release over $1 million in additional event rewards, giving users ongoing opportunities to compete for leaderboard positions and split the subsequent prize pool.
5 hours ago
South Korean investors' borrowings for stock trading hit an all-time high, with record leverage exacerbating volatility in South Korean equities.
South Korean investors’ margin lending for stock trading hits an all-time high: South Korea’s margin loans have reached a record of approximately $26 billion, doubling since the start of 2025. However, when measured as a share of South Korea’s free-float market capitalization, margin lending currently makes up only around 0.8% — the lowest level since the 2020 pandemic low. This is because the sharp rise in South Korea’s total stock market capitalization has far outpaced the growth of leverage. Meanwhile, during the recent market correction, the daily forced liquidation ratio surged to 4-5% of total outstanding margin loans, far exceeding the normal level of roughly 1%. This means that leveraged investors unable to meet margin call requirements are forcing brokers to liquidate 4-5% of all margin positions in a single day. Record leverage is exacerbating volatility in the South Korean market.
5 hours ago
Hyper Foundation to Distribute $10 Million in Grants Amid Phased Exit of USDH Stablecoin
The Hyper Foundation announced it will provide approximately $10 million in grants to help developers affected by the phased shutdown of USDH offset migration costs. The grants are divided into two categories: migration grants for teams that have integrated USDH and are migrating related markets or deployments to USDC; and wind-down grants for teams that choose to terminate USDH-related operations instead of migrating, with amounts lower than equivalent migration grants. Grants for HIP-1 and HIP-3 are calculated based on auction deployment costs, while HyperEVM grants are determined by the amount of affected USDH locked. All grant recipients must commit to completing an orderly migration or wind-down by the end of July. Users can directly swap USDH for USDC on the HyperCore spot order book, or exchange it for free at a 1:1 ratio via the Across Protocol on HyperEVM. The Hyper Foundation thanked all developers who built real markets on USDH, users who supported USDH's growth, and Native Markets for its pioneering work in launching the protocol's native stablecoin. Thanks to the active collaboration of the team and community, the migration process is currently proceeding smoothly and orderly.
5 hours ago
Galaxy CEO: MicroStrategy has evolved into a key confidence signal for the overall Bitcoin market, with $59,000 serving as a critical support level.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin’s recent decline is a "confidence collapse triggered by Strategy". The issue extends beyond Bitcoin’s price itself: concerns over Strategy’s financing model are spreading across the market. As the world’s largest public corporate holder of Bitcoin, Strategy’s stocks and senior securities have become key metrics for traders to gauge Bitcoin market risk. Earlier, the company’s Bitcoin flywheel effect came under pressure, with its stock once trading below the value of its Bitcoin holdings—meaning its years-long reliance on the "issuing stock at a premium to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases" model is now facing challenges. Novogratz bluntly noted that STRC (Strategy’s ticker) is trading weakly, and it should have held steady around $100. Currently, Strategy’s annual dividend obligations have risen to roughly $1.2 billion, and shrinking cash reserves have cut the dividend coverage period to just about 14 months. On the macro front, Bitcoin also faces pressure. Novogratz summed up the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin": hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening US dollar are suppressing demand for risk assets. Technically, the $59,000 to $60,000 range has become a critical support level for Bitcoin; a break below could open downside space to $45,000. Novogratz also admitted the current situation is complex, with an equal 50/50 probability of a rebound or deep correction. ETF outflows, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the market’s fragile sentiment. Today, Strategy’s balance sheet health, STRC’s price performance, and cash position are no longer just company-level issues—they have evolved into a confidence signal for the entire Bitcoin market.
PANews June 28 news, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow said on social platforms that he believes the bottom of this Bitcoin cycle has been formed, and pointed out that the traditional "four-year halving cycle" is being broken, with market timing clearly moving earlier. He noted that Bitcoin hit an all-time high 37 days before the halving in April 2024, indicating that the cycle pattern is accelerating. Even if the cycle model is acknowledged to have reference value, its effectiveness should be re-evaluated. Moreover, with spot ETFs bringing sustained institutional capital inflows, Bitcoin's market structure has changed, and the traditional approach of identifying tops and bottoms based on historical halving cycles is becoming distorted. Therefore, the current price range already possesses the characteristics of a cycle bottom.
However, market views remain markedly divided. 10x Research founder Markus Thielen believes that Bitcoin's bottom is more likely to appear in the area around $55,000, with a time window possibly between August and October; BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin could drop to around the $40,000 level over the coming months; CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten pointed out that from long-term indicators such as the 200-week moving average, Bitcoin may still need to fall by more than 15% further before completing its final bottom formation, and the current range of $50,000 to $54,000 could become a key battleground for bulls and bears. Overall, the market has yet to form a consensus on whether the bottom has been reached.
Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for its worst monthly loss since mid-2022, with BTC down roughly 18.5% in June as price struggles to hold the psychological $60,000 support level.
BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView
Will Bitcoin’s downside momentum extend in July, or is BTC preparing for a recovery?
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s liquidity map shows a major short-liquidation “magnet zone” near $67,600.BTC has historically gained 7.6% on average in July, while midterm-year seasonality points to an even stronger 10.3% average return.Bitcoin may hit $75,000 in JulyJuly may become a "bullish month for Bitcoin," according to analyst Fleh, who predicted BTC price to rally toward $75,000 next month.
The bullish thesis is based on Bitcoin’s Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, which shows a large concentration of short liquidation levels sitting above the current price.
On the monthly chart, the strongest visible liquidity cluster sits near $67,645, where the chart shows around $247.39 million in liquidation leverage and roughly $2.26 billion in cumulative short liquidation leverage.
For beginners, such clusters are often called “magnet zones.” When many leveraged positions are concentrated around the same price area, the market can move toward that zone because liquidations create forced buying or selling pressure.
In this case, significant liquidity sits above Bitcoin’s current price near $60,000.
If BTC rebounds and pushes toward $67,600, short sellers may be forced to close their positions. Since closing shorts requires buying Bitcoin back, that can add fresh upside pressure and fuel a short squeeze.
"I think $BTC bottoms here at 60k for now, targeting 75k to the upside before any chance of lower," Fleh said in a Saturday post.
BTC rises 7.6% on average in JulyBitcoin’s historical monthly returns also support Fleh’s bullish July outlook.
BTC has returned a 7.6% gain on average in July, making it one of its stronger months after a typically weaker June, which shows an average return of -1.40%, according to CoinGlass data highlighted by analyst CGT_Trader.
Bitcoin monthly returns tracking the July performance in since 2013. Source: CoinGlass/CGT_Trader
The trend has appeared even during bear market years.
For instance, Bitcoin rose 20.96% in July 2018 and 16.8% in July 2022. More recently, BTC gained 2.95% in July 2024 and 8.13% in July 2025, strengthening the case for another green month ahead.
A separate midterm-year seasonality chart also shows that- Bitcoin has averaged a 10.3% gain during the month, its strongest monthly return in such years.
Bitcoin performance by month during US mid-term election years. Source: More Crypto Online
That compares with an average 17% loss in June, pointing to the possibility of a post-sell-off mean-reversion bounce.
Based on Bitcoin’s current price near $60,000, its historical July average return of 7.6% projects a move toward roughly $64,500, while the stronger midterm-year average of 10.3% points to about $66,100.
A repeat of Bitcoin’s bear-market July rebounds from 2022 and 2018 would put BTC between $70,000 and $72,500, while a 2020-style July rally would bring Fleh’s $75,000 target within reach.
BTC's dip below the 200-week SMA may extend slideBitcoin’s ongoing drop below its 200-week simple moving average (200-day SMA, the blue line) near $62,445 raises the risk of further downside in July.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
A similar loss of long-term moving-average support preceded deeper weakness during the 2022 bear market, when BTC continued lower before forming a bottom.
Bitcoin's bear flag breakdown raises the odds of a price decline toward $55,000 in July unless BTC quickly reclaims the 200-day SMA.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
Grayscale’s Head of Research Zach Pandl discussed Strategy’s Bitcoin-heavy capital structure in the context of market confidence. The analyst view suggested that selling a portion of Bitcoin holdings could be one way to address corporate balance sheet pressure. Risk note: Do not imply Strategy has announced a sale, is forced to sell, or is in financial distress. For more details, visit the official Grayscale platform.
An external analyst view on strategy’s capital structure, not a company action Grayscale Analyst Outlines Strategy Balance Sheet Pressure Around Bitcoin Holdings is a timely crypto-market story because it gives readers a clear signal to watch without leaning on hype or unsupported price targets.
The important point is not just the headline number or technical level. It is the way that signal fits into the wider market: liquidity is thinner, Bitcoin direction is fragile, and traders are paying closer attention to flows, wallet activity, derivatives positioning, and official ecosystem updates.
What the verified setup shows Grayscale’s Head of Research Zach Pandl discussed Strategy’s Bitcoin-heavy capital structure in the context of market confidence. The analyst view suggested that selling a portion of Bitcoin holdings could be one way to address corporate balance sheet pressure.
The discovery pack did not indicate that Strategy itself has announced any Bitcoin sale plan.
That makes this a useful setup for readers who want to understand what is actually changing beneath the surface. It also helps separate measurable market data from the more speculative narratives that often appear during volatile weekends.
Why this matters for the market For Strategy Bitcoin holdings, the signal matters because it offers a specific lens for the current market rather than a vague bullish or bearish call. In a weak or uncertain tape, traders tend to focus on the data points that can be checked directly: flows, wallet routes, support zones, funding, moving averages, official technical updates, or security disclosures.
This is especially important in the current environment. Bitcoin has been trading near important support, altcoins remain sensitive to broader risk appetite, and institutional or on-chain activity can quickly become part of the market narrative.
What traders should avoid assuming Do not imply Strategy has announced a sale, is forced to sell, or is in financial distress.
That caution matters because many of these signals can be misread. ETF outflows do not automatically mean permanent institutional retreat. Wallet transfers do not automatically mean selling. Technical support does not guarantee a bounce. Developer updates do not immediately translate into price action.
What to verify next The next validation path is: Grayscale official research portal and SEC EDGAR corporate filings for Strategy/MicroStrategy. This is the key step before treating the setup as anything more than a developing market or ecosystem signal.
Coverage around Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings is sensitive and must separate analyst opinion from company statements.
This report is based on information from official source materials and publicly available market data.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
Strategy ended the week amid sharp criticism from the crypto industry and with Bitcoin stuck at around $60,000. Before the weekly close, Bitcoin was trading near $60,102 as the company’s co-founder Michael Saylor shared a reserves chart on his X account, commenting, “We’re going to need more charts.” Some investors interpreted Saylor’s message as a new signal to buy.
Reserves under pressure as losses mountThe company’s latest financials paint a much more cautious picture. Strategy currently holds 847,363 BTC, with an average purchase cost of $75,653 per coin. Since Bitcoin is trading near $60,000, the company’s paper losses on its Bitcoin holdings have now surpassed $13 billion.
This gloomy scenario is reflected in Strategy’s own market value. The firm’s market capitalization has fallen to roughly $29 billion, about 43% below the market value of its Bitcoin reserves. The growing gap has made it increasingly difficult for the company to sustain its prior cycle of raising capital and acquiring more Bitcoin.
For reference, mini Net Asset Value (mNAV) is the ratio between a company’s market capitalization and the net asset value of the assets it holds. For firms with substantial crypto assets on their books, this metric helps investors determine whether the stock is trading at a premium or discount relative to its reserve holdings.
Company bylaws stipulate that issuing new shares to purchase more crypto is only allowed when the market value exceeds the value of Bitcoin reserves by at least 22%. In other words, the mNAV ratio must reach 1.22. At present, this ratio has slipped to just 0.99.
Given the current numbers, issuing new shares is not seen as economically viable. Such a move would dilute the holdings of existing shareholders, and the company’s self-imposed framework may force management to halt further Bitcoin purchases for now.
Cash constraints meet Wall Street scrutinyStrategy’s free cash position has also come under pressure. Its preferred shares, labeled STRC, have fallen around 25% below face value, now trading at $74.57. The company’s remaining $1.4 billion in cash reserves would cover roughly 14 months of dividend payments based on its annual $1.2 billion in obligations.
Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, argued that Strategy may need to sell at least $3 billion worth of Bitcoin to cover its short-term debts. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has also criticized the debt-driven structure, warning that it has damaged the market and left Bitcoin overly dependent on a single company’s balance sheet.
Grayscale is a leading asset manager specializing in digital investment products. Ripple, meanwhile, focuses on cross-border payment solutions. As Ripple CEO, Brad Garlinghouse is frequently involved in industry debates over crypto regulation and company strategies.
Key price levels in focusMichael Saylor maintains that as long as Bitcoin holds above $8,000, there is no risk of forced liquidation for the company. Still, technical indicators imply that it could take some time before Strategy’s buy-in costs are recovered. Major trading activity currently centers around resistance levels at $67,098 and $75,682.
Altogether, this outlook underscores the need for a more robust Bitcoin rally if Strategy is to return to aggressive accumulation. Unless Bitcoin approaches the $75,000 region, the company’s balance sheet stress and related debt discussions are likely to persist.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
TLDR:Bitcoin Weekly Death Cross Raises Fresh BTC Price ConcernsMichael Saylor Hints at More Bitcoin Buying Despite Strategy Valuation Pressure Bitcoin approaches a rare weekly death cross as traders monitor long-term market direction closely. Strategy’s mNAV has dropped below 1.0 for the first time during this market cycle. Michael Saylor hinted at more Bitcoin discussions despite growing valuation concerns. Technical signals and institutional buying remain key factors shaping Bitcoin sentiment. Bitcoin could soon print a rare weekly death cross as bearish technical signals return to the market. At the same time, Michael Saylor has hinted that Strategy may continue accumulating Bitcoin despite growing pressure on its valuation.
The two developments have reignited discussion around Bitcoin’s price outlook and institutional demand. Investors are now watching technical charts alongside corporate buying activity for the next major market signal.
Bitcoin Weekly Death Cross Raises Fresh BTC Price Concerns Crypto Rover shared that Bitcoin is approaching a weekly death cross, a technical pattern that appears when the long-term moving average falls below the shorter trend. The account noted that the previous weekly death cross preceded another 28% decline in Bitcoin’s price.
🚨 BITCOIN WEEKLY DEATH CROSS IS NOW INCOMING.
Last time this happened, BTC crashed another -28%.
If history repeats again, the real bottom may not come until late Q3 or early Q4 2026.
That would also perfectly match Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle. https://t.co/NgE8PlCamN pic.twitter.com/sbPGjGTIv4
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) June 28, 2026
The same post highlighted Bitcoin’s historical four-year market cycle. According to Crypto Rover, another extended correction could align with the later stages of the current cycle if previous patterns repeat.
The signal has attracted attention because weekly chart formations appear far less often than daily indicators. Traders typically monitor them for broader market direction rather than short-term volatility.
Despite the technical setup, the pattern alone does not determine future price action. Market participants continue weighing macroeconomic conditions, liquidity, and institutional demand alongside historical chart behavior.
Michael Saylor Hints at More Bitcoin Buying Despite Strategy Valuation Pressure While bearish technical signals circulated, Michael Saylor posted that more charts would be needed, a familiar response that often precedes fresh Bitcoin discussions. His comment followed renewed debate surrounding Strategy’s ability to continue funding Bitcoin purchases.
🚨 JUST IN: Michael Saylor hints at buying more $BTC.
What's interesting is the timing.
Strategy's mNAV has now fallen below 1.0 for the first time this cycle, meaning the company is trading below the market value of the Bitcoin it holds.
Management has previously indicated… https://t.co/WkFYTYOyBi
— Wise Advice (@wiseadvicesumit) June 28, 2026
Wise Advice pointed to Strategy’s market value relative to its Bitcoin holdings. The account noted that the company’s modified net asset value, or mNAV, has fallen below 1.0 for the first time during the current market cycle.
According to the same discussion, Strategy previously suggested that issuing new equity below roughly 1.22 times mNAV could reduce shareholder value. That threshold has prompted questions about whether additional equity-funded Bitcoin purchases remain practical under current market conditions.
Even so, Saylor’s brief response has kept attention on Strategy’s long-standing Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
Investors now await any official filings or announcements that could clarify whether another Bitcoin purchase is approaching while the company navigates changing market dynamics.
Bitcoin continues to hold an important place in El Salvador’s financial strategy, which continues its regular purchases despite changes in its regulatory framework. The country has just added new digital assets to its national treasury, confirming the continuity of its reserve policy. This new acquisition comes as sovereign cryptocurrency reserves remain closely monitored by market observers and institutional players around the world.
In brief El Salvador purchased eight new bitcoins, bringing its national reserves to 7,696.37 BTC. The country continues its weekly accumulation strategy despite recent changes to its legislative framework. The new rules remove the obligation to accept Bitcoin as a means of payment without affecting the national reserve policy. Regular acquisitions continue to strengthen El Salvador’s treasury, whose sovereign reserves remain closely monitored. El Salvador Continues Its Accumulation Strategy El Salvador has strengthened its national bitcoin treasury by acquiring eight additional units during the past week. This operation now brings public reserves to 7,696.37 BTC, according to the official data from the Ministry of Finance.
The government thus maintains a regular purchase pace, which has become a component of its digital asset management strategy. This progression confirms the country’s intention to pursue its accumulation plan without interruption.
Moreover, the Bitcoin Office continues to monitor the evolution of national reserves through public data. This transparency makes it possible to measure each new acquisition made by the authorities. Several observers have also relayed this recent increase in sovereign holdings. El Salvador remains among the states whose digital asset reserves receive constant attention.
Bitcoin Retains a Place in the National Strategy Despite IMF Reforms The latest purchase comes after several adjustments made to the legal framework regarding Bitcoin, as part of the agreement concluded with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The adopted changes mainly concern its use in daily commercial activities. Private companies are no longer obliged to accept this asset as a means of payment. However, Bitcoin remains integrated into the legal framework implemented by the authorities.
At the same time, the national reserve policy has not experienced any interruption. Official data show that weekly purchases continue according to the same logic as before. This separation between payment policy and reserve strategy now appears clearer. El Salvador therefore continues to develop its holdings while adapting certain rules governing the use of the digital asset.
A National Reserve That Keeps Progressing Each new acquisition gradually increases the volume of public reserves of the country. With a total of 7,696.37 BTC, El Salvador confirms the continuity of its long-term accumulation policy.
Regular purchases remain at the core of this strategy, regardless of changes in the legislative framework. Sovereign reserves thus continue to be closely monitored by industry players.
This new progression also illustrates the stability of the acquisition mechanism adopted by the authorities. Official data allow precise tracking of the evolution of the national treasury over the weeks. The BTC thus retains a central role in this reserve strategy, which continues regularly. El Salvador therefore maintains its course, while the evolution of its holdings will continue to be observed in upcoming official updates.
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Ghiles A.
Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
In a recent tweet, Michael Saylor teased the purchase of additional Bitcoin for Strategy despite the market backlash.
Michael Saylor Hints Strategy Will Buy More Bitcoin The speculation regarding another Bitcoin acquisition is again stirring after Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor posted his usual, weekly update on X on Sunday. The post came ahead of the company’s expected weekly acquisition on Monday.
“We’re gonna need more charts,” Michael Saylor wrote as he also added the firm’s famous “Orange Dots” chart. For context, this graphic shows all of Bitcoin Strategy’s purchases to date. The announcement immediately raised hopes that the company might announce another Bitcoin purchase when markets reopen on Monday.
We’re gonna need more charts. pic.twitter.com/xVASOEnSw8
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) June 28, 2026
Michael Saylor’s teaser is coming just days after Strategy announced a relatively modest $35 million Bitcoin acquisition. Meanwhile, it also boosted its holdings in U.S. dollars by about $300 million. To pay for these transactions, the firm raised over $335 million in MSTR stock sales. This move also raised further investor questions on shareholder dilution.
What’s Next For Strategy? The latest rumors also come at a time when there is greater debate about the Michael Saylor-led company’s capital structure. According to Grayscale’s CEO and Head of Research Zach Pandl, the company has two scenarios for the Variable Rate Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC).
“What I think happens: increase in STRC dividend of 50bp, which equates to ~$100mn higher dividend obligation for next 2yrs; probably does not help market confidence,” Pandl wrote on X.
In his view, a more different approach would better reassure investors. Panel added, “What I hope happens: sale of ≥ ~$3bn $BTC to cover nearly all cash obligations for next 2yrs (ex one of the converts); probably would restore market confidence.”.
However, that isn’t everyone’s idea of a plan. But longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff said selling off any of Strategy’s holdings could be detrimental.
“Those of you who think Saylor can solve the $STRC problem by selling Bitcoin… $MSTR can’t sell Bitcoin without crashing the price of Bitcoin,” Schiff has cautioned. He further added that “even if Strategy merely stops buying Bitcoin, that change alone would crush the market.”
Presently, Strategy has 847,363 BTC in its possession, which makes it the biggest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin owner in the world. Nonetheless, the company stirred controversy by selling off 32 BTC in May 2026. This move contradicted Saylor’s previous statement that Strategy would never sell its BTC.
MicroStrategy’s $64 billion Bitcoin (BTC) bet has become a stress test for everyone who funded it. BTC now trades below $60,000, and the renamed company, Strategy, sits at a discount to its own holdings.
The question dividing investors is no longer whether Strategy gets liquidated tomorrow. It is who absorbs the losses while the company keeps its coins and keeps paying to hold them.
How the Bitcoin Flywheel was BuiltBy June 22, Strategy held 847,363 BTC bought for $64.1 billion, an average of $75,651 each. That is the largest corporate Bitcoin position anywhere.
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Purchases in 2026. Source: StrategyThe model runs like a flywheel. The company sells stock and debt, buys more Bitcoin, and its shares climb when BTC rises. However, falling prices spin the machine in reverse.
BTC has fallen below $60,000 this week, its lowest level since 2024. The stock has slid with it, dropping under the value of the Bitcoin on its books.
A new accounting standard made the pain visible. Since 2025, FASB rule ASU 2023-08 forces firms to mark Bitcoin to fair value each quarter. As a result, Strategy booked a $14.46 billion unrealized loss in early 2026. That produced a $12.54 billion net loss, or $38.25 for every diluted share.
Michael Saylor's Strategy currently has a $14 billion unrealized loss on bitcoin.
Tom Lee's Bitmine currently has a $10.5 billion unrealized loss on ETH.
This is why it's foolish to follow the smart money and not take profit.
They can survive a crypto winter, most of will not!
— Layah Heilpern (@LayahHeilpern) June 25, 2026 Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
Who Actually Pays for MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin BetThe bill does not fall on Strategy alone. As the flywheel slows, the cost spreads to five groups, in rough order of exposure.
Common shareholders They stand first in line. When the stock trades below the value of its Bitcoin, the company still raises cash by selling new shares. Each sale buys less Bitcoin than it hands away.
“If we decide to sell $1 billion of MSTR stock and buy $1 billion of Bitcoin… when you do it at 1.0x MNAV… it is dilutive. It is a minus 48 basis point yield. It costs the shareholders $310 million,” Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman, Strategy, said during Q1 2026 earnings call.
Existing owners are left holding a smaller claim on the same coins, and that dilution is how the strategy gets funded.
Investors in other treasury companies The copycats have fared worse than the original. Their shares once traded far above the Bitcoin they held, lifted by hype.
As that premium faded, many Bitcoin treasury company stocks fell much harder than Bitcoin itself, leaving late buyers deep underwater.
“If that’s not already a bubble burst, how would that bubble burst?” Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, said while many treasury stocks traded below net asset value.
Passive and index fund investors This group never chose the bet. MSCI has proposed removing companies whose digital assets exceed half their total assets from its global indexes.
“Feedback from the consultation confirmed institutional investor concern that some DATCOs exhibit characteristics similar to investment funds, which are not eligible for inclusion in the MSCI Indexes,” MSCI said in its official announcement earlier this year.
Strategy clears that bar with ease. An exclusion would force index funds and pension trusts to sell automatically, whatever the price, just to keep tracking the benchmark.
Convertible bondholders and preferred shareholders These investors lent on the assumption that MicroStrategy could always refinance. If Bitcoin stays depressed into 2027, that assumption breaks.
“Proceeds from the bitcoin sales are expected to be used to fund distributions on preferred stock,” Strategy indicated in the June 1 Form 8-K.
Bondholders can demand cash, and preferred holders still expect dividends, both drawing on a reserve of just $1.4 billion.
MicroStrategy itself The company is the backstop of last resort. On its first quarter 2026 earnings call, Michael Saylor again framed Strategy as a net buyer that never sells.
“We will probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend just to inoculate the market, just to send the message that we did it.”
Yet if financing freezes while debt and dividends come due, keeping that vow could become impossible.
“We will sell Bitcoin when it is advantageous to the company. We are not going to sit back and just say we will never sell the Bitcoin,” Strategy co-CEO Phong Le added.
The Real Test Arrives in 2027MicroStrategy faces no margin call today. Its main debt is unsecured, so a falling price alone cannot trigger a forced sale. The threat is a date, not a level.
Holders of a $1.01 billion convertible note can demand repayment on September 15, 2027. If the shares sit below the conversion price, that claim becomes a cash bill the company must cover.
Strategy has neared this edge before. A 2022 Silvergate loan backed by Bitcoin carried a margin call near $21,000 before the firm repaid it. Moving to unsecured notes and preferred stock removed the automatic trigger, but not the obligation.
Microstrategy took a loan to buy more #bitcoin a few months ago using 19,000 $BTC as collateral.
Margin call price is $21,000…
Time to post some more collateral I think!
— Lark Davis (@LarkDavis) June 13, 2022 Some peers have already blinked. This month one Nasdaq company sold Bitcoin to repay debt, and its shares jumped. Analysts have also questioned Strategy’s exit liquidity if it is ever forced to sell at scale.
For now, no forced sale looms. The pressure has simply moved from a price trigger to a calendar. The number that matters is no longer $60,000, but the September 2027 repayment date.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone strikes targeting US military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain on June 28, marking a significant escalation in a conflict that has been simmering since early 2026. The IRGC claimed to have struck eight sites, including Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the US 5th Fleet base in Bahrain.
Kuwaiti and Bahraini forces intercepted most of the incoming projectiles. No US casualties were reported, and damage was described as limited.
What happened on the ground The strikes involved a combination of ballistic missiles and drones. The IRGC framed the offensive as retaliation for prior US airstrikes on Iranian targets, part of a tit-for-tat cycle that has defined the 2026 conflict.
Both Kuwait and Bahrain host critical US military infrastructure in the Gulf. Ali Al-Salem has served as a logistics hub for American operations in the region for decades. The 5th Fleet base in Bahrain is the nerve center of US naval operations overseeing the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes daily.
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Iran’s messaging after the strikes carried a pointed warning: continued US military actions could jeopardize ongoing peace negotiations.
The broader conflict has been building since February, with repeated exchanges of strikes between the US, Israel, and Iran throughout the spring.
How crypto markets reacted Bitcoin dipped to around $99.5K in the immediate aftermath as traders moved to reduce risk exposure, then rebounded past $102K as markets digested the limited damage and lack of casualties.
Oil prices also climbed on the news. Rising energy costs feed into inflation expectations, which influence central bank policy, which in turn shapes the liquidity environment that risk assets like Bitcoin trade in.
Trading volumes spiked during the initial sell-off and subsequent bounce, suggesting that much of the price action was driven by short-term positioning rather than any fundamental reassessment of Bitcoin’s value proposition.
What this means for investors Bitcoin’s behavior during these events reveals something interesting about its evolving identity. It doesn’t act purely as a safe haven asset the way gold does during military escalations, but it also doesn’t collapse like a speculative tech stock. It experiences short-term drawdowns that tend to reverse within hours or days as long as the underlying conflict remains contained.
The key variable to watch is the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran were to directly threaten shipping through that chokepoint, rather than targeting military bases, the market response would likely be far more severe and sustained.
The BTC dip to $99.5K was relatively mild, but leveraged positions that assumed $100K as a floor learned an uncomfortable lesson, however briefly. The rebound past $102K bailed out some of those trades.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Debate over technical indicators and institutional demand has reignited in the Bitcoin market. With the prospect of a rare “death cross” emerging on the weekly chart, attention has also turned to valuation pressures at Michael Saylor’s Strategy—formerly MicroStrategy—a company known for its sizable Bitcoin holdings.
Death cross signal emerges on the weekly chartCrypto Rover highlighted that Bitcoin is approaching a death cross on the weekly chart. This technical formation, where the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, is generally viewed as a signal of market weakness.
Crypto Rover remarked that Bitcoin is nearing a death cross on the weekly timeframe, noting that the last time such a signal appeared, the price went on to decline by another 28%.
The analysis further referenced the historical four-year cycle in Bitcoin’s price, suggesting that if similar patterns repeat, any correction could extend further into the current cycle’s later stages.
Mini glossary: A death cross occurs in technical analysis when a shorter-term moving average drops below a longer-term one. When observed on the weekly chart, it is rarer than daily signals and often used to discuss longer-term market trends.
Because weekly chart formations are less common than those seen on daily charts, investors tend to watch these signals for insights into broader market direction rather than short-term price swings. However, it remains clear that technical indicators alone do not determine future prices; liquidity conditions, macroeconomic factors, and institutional demand also play crucial roles.
Strategy’s valuation triggers debateWhile technical signals suggest weakness, Michael Saylor has kept market expectations alive regarding fresh Bitcoin purchases. His call for further chart updates was interpreted as a possible hint at more buying. Strategy, known as MicroStrategy until recently, is a US-based software and treasury company recognized for its large-scale Bitcoin acquisitions.
Wise Advice pointed out that Strategy’s modified net asset value (mNAV) ratio fell below 1.0 in this cycle for the first time, emphasizing that the company’s stock now trades below the market value of its Bitcoin holdings.
The core of the discussion hinges on the gap between Strategy’s market capitalization and the value of its Bitcoin assets. The fall of the mNAV ratio below 1.0 indicates the company’s entire market value is now less than the sum total of its Bitcoin holdings.
Previously, company management suggested that issuing new shares below an mNAV of around 1.22 could result in losses for existing shareholders. This has sparked debate over the feasibility of financing additional Bitcoin purchases by selling equity at the current ratio.
IndicatorCurrent statusKey thresholdBitcoin weekly chartDeath cross risk28% drop after previous signalStrategy mNAVDropped below 1.0Debate over 1.22 levelSaylor’s brief message underscored ongoing interest in Strategy’s long-standing policy of accumulating Bitcoin. Market participants are now watching whether the company’s next official statement or filing will hint at another Bitcoin purchase.
Overall, the Bitcoin market is at a crossroads, with technical signals and corporate maneuvers both fueling speculation. Many investors are weighing the impact of continued institutional demand against the emergence of bearish patterns on longer-term charts.
Experts generally agree that while technical indicators like the death cross can warn of shifts in market sentiment, actual price direction is still shaped by a complex mix of outside forces. Nonetheless, attention remains fixed on movements by Strategy and the behavior of BTC in the coming weeks.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Bitcoin’s selloff is rarely a single-cause event. But according to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, the current slump has a very specific driver—a loss of faith in the corporate treasury strategy that once defined this cycle. As detailed in a WuBlockchain report, Novogratz told market participants that “a MicroStrategy-led breakdown in confidence around that complex” is behind the recent decline, fuelling what he described as “a crisis of confidence in Bitcoin.” Alongside hawkish U.S. monetary policy and souring crypto sentiment, the Galaxy Digital chief warned that a decisive move below the $60,000–59,000 support zone could open the door to $45,000.
It’s a blunt call. MicroStrategy has effectively become a leveraged Bitcoin holding company. Chairman Michael Saylor turned the firm into the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, holding over 200,000 BTC funded partly by debt issuance. For months, the market treated the company’s stock as a high-beta play on Bitcoin itself, often commanding a premium to its underlying holdings. When that premium starts to erode—or worse, when the market questions whether the whole structure can hold together—Bitcoin itself gets dragged down. Novogratz’s framing suggests the unraveling of that premium is now the primary source of spot market pressure.
There is a larger structural question here. When a single corporate entity’s balance sheet is so entwined with Bitcoin’s price, any tremor in its equity or debt can feed back into the crypto market. The confidence breakdown Novogratz points to isn’t necessarily about MicroStrategy’s insolvency risk. It’s about the narrative that drove a whole class of investors—those buying the stock as an easy Bitcoin proxy—to lose conviction. That loss of proxy demand saps liquidity and amplifies downside moves.
Investors are now watching whether the $60,000 level holds as anything more than a psychological line. Novogratz said the $60K–59K zone is critical, and if it fails, the next logical stop is in the mid-$40,000s. That’s a drop that would align with historical correction ranges but would also mean a deeper unwind of the MicroStrategy trade, as liquidations and margin calls in equity-linked instruments could accelerate spot selling.
The Macro Current Pushing Against Bitcoin Novogratz didn’t put all the blame on MicroStrategy. He also pointed to hawkish U.S. monetary policy and deteriorating crypto sentiment as headwinds. With the Federal Reserve holding rates high and showing little appetite for cuts, risk assets across the board are under pressure. Crypto, which has been increasingly correlated with tech stocks, is taking a hit alongside equities. The dollar’s strength and tighter financial conditions create an environment where leveraged positions become harder to maintain.
Regulatory uncertainty is adding another layer of unease. Just days before a critical Senate vote, traditional banks are pushing to reshape the largest crypto legislation in U.S. history. As reported this week, the bill that had seemed headed for broad bipartisan support now faces demands from the banking lobby that could gut its core provisions. The timing is rough. A confidence crisis fed by a corporate strategy is much harder to contain when the regulatory climate feels adversarial.
What the Market Is Actually Watching For traders, the key test is whether spot buyers step in near $60K or if the market drifts lower on thinning volume. The $45,000 level Novogratz flagged would represent a return to the range where Bitcoin consolidated in early 2024 before institutional flows from spot ETFs pushed it higher. Breaking below the current support zone would erase most of that ETF-driven momentum and challenge the idea that institutional adoption alone creates a permanent price floor.
The real uncertainty is whether MicroStrategy’s confidence crisis is a temporary dislocation or a symptom of a deeper problem. If the premium has permanently compressed, the market may need to reprice Bitcoin without the benefit of equity-linked demand. That would leave the asset more reliant on macroeconomic tailwinds and organic accumulation. A macro pivot from the Fed could shift the picture quickly, but until then, the path of least resistance looks cautious.
Market watchers are also tracking on-chain indicators and exchange reserve trends to see whether long-term holders are using this dip to accumulate or whether the selloff is triggering broader distribution. The next few weeks will show whether the MicroStrategy narrative shock marks a reset in Bitcoin’s institutional story or just another sharp correction in a cycle that has already seen plenty of them.
AUTHOR
Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.
It’s time, perhaps, to move on from Bitcoin, and look at some other bits of coins — virtual representations of everything from US Treasuries and corporate bonds to stocks and commodities.
While the world’s oldest cryptocurrency struggles to come up for air after a 50% slump since October, demand for digital versions of real-world assets is quietly gathering momentum. Their holders carry their investments not in a traditional brokerage account, but directly via their own crypto wallets — as secure blocks of data that can be easily traded peer-to-peer or on exchanges.
Peter Schiff has warned Strategy’s (NASDAQ:MSTR) investors that Michael Saylor has no easy way out as the stock and its preferred stocks plummet.
Peter Schiff Warns of More MSTR Stock Pain AheadIn an X post, he argued that Saylor has no viable solution as his stocks continue to slide. In particular, he highlighted STRC, the popular preferred stock with an 11% dividend yield, which has suffered a sharp decline in recent weeks.
STRC, together with other preferred stocks like STRD, STRK, and STRF, have all plunged as investors worry about the sustainability of the dividend since Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings don’t generate any cash return.
As such, the company has three potential solutions to continue paying its dividends. It can issue more debt, but this will be expensive as it has over $6.7 billion in debt. Alternatively, it can sell more shares, diluting its investors, or it can sell its Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).
In his post, Schiff warned that selling Bitcoin would be dangerous for the company because it could trigger a steeper decline. Earlier this month, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 after the company sold just 32 coins. Schiff also argued that pausing its Bitcoin purchases would put further downward pressure on BTC.
In another post, Schiff argued that Strategy’s collapse would have more severe consequences for the cryptocurrency industry than FTX’s downfall in 2022. FTX customers lost more than $9 billion when the exchange collapsed, although many were eventually made whole through the bankruptcy process. In the aftermath, the cryptocurrency market shed more than $200 billion in value.
Michael Saylor Hints at Further Bitcoin PurchasesStill, despite the woes, Saylor appears unfazed with the MSTR and STRC crashes. In an X post, he hinted that Strategy continued accumulating Bitcoin last week. He attached the orange chart, noting that he will need more charts.
Strategy has spent the past six years accumulating Bitcoin and now holds 847,363 coins worth more than $50.4 billion. However, the company acquired them at a total cost of about $64 billion, leaving it with billions of dollars in unrealized losses.
Meanwhile, its stock has plunged from $540 in November 2024 to $82, wiping out more than $100 billion in market value as its market capitalization fell from $128 billion to about $28 billion.
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The technico-financial showdown that Strategy faces today against the macroeconomic realities of the market has just passed a critical threshold. This situation reveals the theoretical limits of an aggressive accumulation model that seemed infallible until now. While the company’s valuation decreases unprecedentedly compared to its real assets, the choices of its leaders could redefine the very structure of corporate finance linked to cryptos.
In Brief Michael Saylor announces a new Bitcoin purchase as Strategy goes through a more delicate period. The fall of the mNAV below the threshold of 1 challenges the financial model that supported the company’s accumulation strategy until now. The difficulties faced by the STRC preferred shares now complicate future capital raises. Facing rising financing costs, Strategy will have to choose between continuing its Bitcoin purchases or preserving its financial structure. Michael Saylor’s signal and the state of Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves Strategy’s chairman, Michael Saylor, once again captured the attention of the financial community by posting on the social network X an update of his company’s Bitcoin tracker, while Brad Garlinghouse has just criticized this model. This message, far from trivial, contained an explicit statement: “we will need more charts”.
In the language and background of this company, this type of enigmatic communication typically introduces an official announcement of a significant bitcoin acquisition presented to regulatory authorities.
The company’s current factual data are as follows :
The state of global reserves : the company’s balance sheet shows a colossal position of 847,363 BTC in treasury, consolidating its place as the undisputed leader among listed entities exposed to the flagship crypto ; The market context : this release occurs while the bitcoin price trades at $59,888, dangerously oscillating below the psychological barrier of $60,000 ; The last official operation : it dates back to June 22, with the purchase of an additional 520 BTC for approximately $35 million ; The cost price of the operation : this last acquisition was negotiated at an average price of $67,068 per coin, putting these recent investments under pressure. The recent drop in the bitcoin price thus puts these last deployed funds in the red, but management continues to display a desire for continuous accumulation, regardless of short-term fluctuations.
Strategy’s modified net asset value (mNAV) has fallen for the first time in this market cycle below the critical threshold of 1.0 to around 0.80. This essential financial measure indicates that the company’s stock now trades below the real value of the bitcoins it holds in reserve. Such a break invalidates the so-called “flywheel effect” mechanism previously used by the firm.
The model consisted of issuing new shares whenever the stock traded at a premium to bitcoin in order to buy more tokens and increase the BTC per share ratio for investors, a strategy that becomes mathematically destructive of value when the mNAV falls below 1.0.
Strategy’s management had previously stated that issuing common shares below the 1.22x mNAV threshold would be dilutive and harmful to existing shareholders. To circumvent this constraint and continue to finance its operations, the company resorted to alternative structures, notably STRC preferred shares.
However, this financial product also deteriorates sharply, trading at a price well below its target value of 100 dollars. The overall decrease in bitcoin asset value below the company’s cumulative purchase cost severely affects market confidence and significantly increases the cost of raising additional capital.
The flaws in the capital structure and the outlook The fall of Strategy’s derivative financial instruments exposes the company to a new structural risk. The inability to raise equity without harming existing shareholders prevents access to traditional low-cost financing that contributed to the firm’s success.
Moreover, the heavy discount suffered by STRC preferred shares shows that the institutional market now demands a significantly higher risk premium to support Michael Saylor’s treasury policy. This distrust results in a geometric increase in debt costs, severely limiting the company’s room for maneuver to meet its yield commitments and finance future bitcoin purchase campaigns.
Going forward, this situation places Strategy before a delicate choice. Advocates of an aggressive approach argue on one side that the company must take advantage of the bitcoin dip to buy tokens at a low price, betting on a rapid market rebound. On the other hand, more cautious analysts warn of the risk of massive dilution and weakening of the company’s financial structure if it persists in purchasing assets with capital that is now too costly.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said that one of the main reasons for the recent decline in Bitcoin is the loss of confidence stemming from Strategy. According to Novogratz, the problem is not limited to the weakness in Bitcoin’s price; the real pressure comes from concerns spreading in the market regarding Strategy’s funding model.
Strategy, the world’s largest publicly traded institutional BTC holder, has become a closely watched indicator in the cryptocurrency market, not only through its own shares but also through its preferred securities. The company’s stock and STRC performance is monitored by traders to gauge risk appetite in the Bitcoin market.
Strategy’s “premium share issuance” model, previously used to finance Bitcoin purchases, has recently come under pressure. The fact that the company’s market capitalization at one point fell below the value of its BTC assets has raised questions about the sustainability of this model.
Novogratz stated that STRC was trading weakly, adding that under normal circumstances, the asset should remain around $100. It was noted that Strategy’s annual dividend obligation had risen to approximately $1.2 billion, and with the decrease in cash reserves, the dividend coverage period had shortened to approximately 14 months.
Macroeconomic pressures continue on the Bitcoin front. Novogratz summarized the current market dynamics with the words, “a strong dollar means a weak BTC.” Hawkish messages from central banks and the strengthening dollar are suppressing demand for risky assets.
From a technical perspective, the $59,000 to $60,000 range stands out as a critical support zone for Bitcoin. A break below this level could lead to a pullback to $45,000 for BTC.
Novogratz acknowledged that the current outlook is quite complex, stating that the probability of a recovery versus a deep correction for Bitcoin is almost equal at this stage. ETF outflows, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market also indicate that market sentiment remains fragile.
*This is not investment advice.
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The Crypto Market moved lower ahead of Monday, with Bitcoin again setting the tone for risk assets.
Total crypto market value slipped to $2.06 trillion as fear deepened among traders. Bitcoin price traded near $59,568 after ETF withdrawals and macro worries hit sentiment.
Gold and silver also drew attention as investors weighed safety demand. Traders also tracked wider volatility in stocks, bonds, and crypto-linked shares before global markets opened for Monday trading.
Here’s Why the Crypto Market, Bitcoin, Stocks, and Gold Could Face Heavy Volatility The Crypto Market is heading into Monday with a weaker tone and fewer clear support signals. Bitcoin price remains the main driver of sentiment after falling more than the wider market. That move showed traders are still using Bitcoin as a quick gauge for risk.
Markets face renewed pressure ahead of Monday as macro and geopolitical risks deepen across major asset classes. Fresh concerns over possible Fed tightening, Treasury weakness, and Japan’s bond stress are weighing on global sentiment.
🚨 WARNING: MONDAY WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!!
→ Fed just confirmed rate HIKES.
→ Iran violated the ceasefire, and the peace deal is
CANCELLED.
→ Japan is DUMPING U.S. Treasuries.
→ The AI bubble is starting to COLLAPSE.
If you hold any assets today, you MUST read this:… pic.twitter.com/TbFVBLgTQl
— 0xNobler (@CryptoNobler) June 27, 2026
Investors are also watching Iran tensions, unstable oil prices, and fading enthusiasm around AI stocks. Analysts warn tighter liquidity could intensify volatility in equities, bonds, metals, and Bitcoin if risk appetite weakens further next week.
The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 16, which points to extreme fear. Such readings appear when traders cut exposure and wait for stronger signals. Thin liquidity can make price moves sharper during uncertain sessions.
Source: CMC The pressure is not limited to crypto. Investors are watching bond yields, oil prices, and geopolitical headlines. If energy prices rise again, inflation concerns could return quickly. That would keep rate expectations firm and pressure speculative assets.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Deepen Fear as Traders Watch Key Support Levels Bitcoin’s latest weakness also reflects heavy selling through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds saw $1.8 billion in net outflows last week. That was described as the second-largest weekly withdrawal on record.
ETF flows matter because they show how larger investors are positioned. When these products lose money, spot demand can weaken. That often affects Bitcoin first, then spreads into altcoins and crypto stocks.
Source: Sosovalue data The $59,000 area is the level traders are watching. A hold above that zone could help Bitcoin steady. A break below it may bring the recent $58,000 low back into focus.
Daily ETF flow data may decide the next short-term move. Fresh inflows could reduce fear and support a rebound. More outflows would likely keep pressure on the Crypto Market.
Stocks and Gold Brace for Monday Swings Amid Macro Market Stress Stocks, bonds, metals, and crypto may all react to the same macro signals on Monday. That makes the session important for traders across several markets. Bond stress and weaker liquidity have made investors more cautious.
Gold traded near $4,071.95 after gaining 0.98%. Spot gold also recently held close to $4,100 per ounce. That shows investors are still watching safe-haven demand.
Silver traded near $58.92 after rising 1.03%. Metals could stay active if inflation and energy fears return. However, gold and silver can also swing lower during forced selling.
Crypto-linked stocks showed mixed action before Monday. BMNR rose 1.80%, while MSTR fell 3.89%. COIN gained 4.76%, and CRCL climbed 6.99%.
Those moves suggest volatility is already spreading beyond Bitcoin. Monday’s direction may depend on ETF flows, bond yields, oil prices, and risk appetite.
Crypto Market Crashing Amid Rotation to StocksA key driver behind the accelerating weakness in the crypto market is that investors in major economies such as the United States, South Korea, and Japan are rotating into equities, as stock markets surge amid the ongoing AI supercycle.
Digital Asset Treasury Companies WoesInvestors now fear that these companies will be forced to start selling their crypto assets to fund their dividends this year. If this happens, there is a risk that cryptocurrencies will continue falling as the biggest buyers become sellers.
Crypto Confidence Waning Amid Hackings and FraudThe crypto market crash is also happening because of the lack of confidence in the industry. These fears escalated on October 10 last year when the crypto industry suffered over $18 billion in liquidation losses. 1.6 million traders were liquidated.
At the same time, fraud and pump-and-dump schemes have been on an upward trajectory. A good example of this is President Donald Trump’s decision to launch the a meme coin in January last year. After initially pumping, the token crashed, erasing billions of dollars in value.
Other recent examples of pumps and dumps are coins like Humanity Protocol, Audiera, and SKYIE.
Data shows that crypto hackings have soared this year. According to DeFi Llama, hackings have jumped to over $1.4 billion in the last 12 months. This includes popular networks like Polymarket, Drift Trade, Balancer, and Upbit.
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This week in the cryptocurrency world was a rollercoaster ride, with Bitcoin showing signs of capitulation and gold’s selloff being framed as a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, 21Shares predicts a return to $100,000 for Bitcoin, Ethereum faces a potential funding gap and former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo urges Congress to pass a crypto bill.
Let’s dive into the details.
‘Bitcoin Is Dead’ Predictions GrowBitcoin’s latest dip below $60,000 has reignited the “Bitcoin is dead” narrative. However, Ryan Rasmussen from Bitwise suggests that long-term investors are using this downturn to accumulate more. He pointed out that such moments have historically coincided with major cycle lows
Read the full article here.
Peter Schiff Says Gold’s Selloff Is A Buying OpportunityEconomist Peter Schiff views gold’s recent selloff as a buying opportunity, while he describes Bitcoin’s decline as a deflating bubble. Schiff noted that Bitcoin failed to rise with gold’s earlier gains and is now declining in tandem, contrary to expectations.
Read the full article here.
BTC Will Return To $100,000 Even If Bitcoin ETFs Are Growing Slower21Shares’ mid-year check-in report suggests that the cryptocurrency market has transitioned from a speculative phase to an institutionally driven asset class. The report also highlights stablecoins and tokenization as the sector’s strongest long-term themes.
Read the full article here.
Ethereum Could Face A Critical Funding GapFormer Ethereum Foundation member Trent Van Epps warns that Ethereum could face a critical funding gap within the next 3 to 9 months. The Foundation’s treasury, which has funded critical shared resources, is shrinking by design.
Read the full article here.
Andrew Cuomo Urges Congress To Pass Crypto BillFormer New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has called on Congress to pass the Clarity Act, emphasizing blockchain’s potential to bring financial inclusion to the unbanked and underserved. Cuomo believes that the adoption of blockchain technology could significantly reduce consumer costs.
Read the full article here.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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The crypto market slipped 0.83% to $2.07 trillion as selling pressure returned across major assets. Bitcoin hovered below $60,000, while Ethereum traded near $1,557 after large holders increased selling.
XRP price held around $1.05, supported by stronger ETF demand. Fresh flow data showed XRP ETF products gaining inflows, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continued to lose capital during a weak market session on June 26.
XRP ETF Inflows Outpace Bitcoin and Ethereum Funds The positive bright spot for U.S. spot crypto funds was XRP ETF products. XRP tokens attracted more interest from investors, with bigger holdings seeing redemptions.
The total daily net inflows for U.S.-listed XRP spot ETFs reached $15.63 million on June 26. This added to the already existing net inflows of $1.47 billion into all XRP ETFs.
XRP’s monthly performance was also positive. Over 30 days, XRP funds added $60.61 million in net inflows. This was in contrast to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which both saw monthly outflows.
Source: Sosovalue data Bitwise’s XRP fund led the daily inflow table. The fund attracted $11.66 million and held $293.49 million in net assets. Next came Franklin’s XRPZ, which had $3.97 million in inflows and $235.20 million in assets.
Canary’s XRPC was also a significant investor with $234.97 million in assets. Grayscale’s GXRP was valued at $57.60, whereas 21Shares’ TOXR was still in the red on a cumulative basis.
But XRP remains far behind the bigger ETF markets in terms of trading volume. Over all, the value traded in XRP spot ETFs totaled $22.04 million. Net assets stood at $934.26 million, equal to 1.44% of XRP’s market capitalization.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Extend Seven-Day Outflow Streak Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs continued to struggle, with investors withdrawing from leading funds. According to SoSoValue, both categories posted a seventh straight day of net outflows on June 26.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced daily net outflows of $444.51 million from the U.S. market. Investors pulled $4.41 billion out of Bitcoin funds during the 31-day period. Net inflows were still high over the 12-month period, however, at $51.61 billion.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs See Seventh Straight Day of Outflows
According to SoSoValue, on June 26 (ET), U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs both recorded their seventh consecutive day of net outflows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net outflow of $445 million, while… pic.twitter.com/vm3nFGOnUQ
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 27, 2026
For the whole day, all of the money flowed out of BlackRock’s IBIT. However, IBIT was the top Bitcoin ETF by assets. The fund has $44.42 billion in net assets and $60.77 billion in cumulative inflows.
Fidelity’s FBTC trailed with $10.44 billion in assets. The Grayscale GBTC was down overall with $27.14 billion of cumulative outflows. But there was no net redemptions in the day for GBTC.
Ethereum ETFs experienced less demand, but losses were not as severe as Bitcoin’s. Daily outflows of spot Ethereum ETFs hit $12.85 million in the U.S. Ethereum has lost more than $610.61 million over the course of 30 days.
BlackRock’s ETHA continued to be the biggest Ethereum fund. It had $4.27 billion in net assets and $11.08 billion in cumulative inflows. Grayscale’s ETHE continued to stay in the red by recording an outflow of $5.33 billion in cumulative outflows.
Bitcoin Still Leads Assets as XRP Gains Fresh Investor Demand XRP is currently the leader in the short-term flow race, whereas Bitcoin has the crown in size. The net assets of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs totaled $72.82 billion. They traded a total of $2.54 billion, which is significantly higher than XRP’s day-to-day activity.
The net assets of Ethereum ETFs totaled $8.38 billion. This was 4.42% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization. Bitcoin ETF assets equaled 6.08% of Bitcoin’s market value.
The new figures reveal a stark difference in investor action. Bitcoin and Ethereum funds are seeing withdrawals, and XRP ETF products are gaining new demand. Nevertheless, Bitcoin is the biggest and most flow market for ETFs.
Near term, traders are watching Bitcoin’s $58,000 support level. Failure to move below this zone will give room for the price to move to $54,000. Any recovery above $61,800 could help ease overall crypto ETF sentiment.
Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3, claims that Bitcoin‘s recent local downtrend has ended and that the asset has reached a cycle bottom. According to Mow, the key factor supporting the current market is the cluster of strong buy limit orders around $58,000. Jan3 is widely recognized for its initiatives aimed at Bitcoin infrastructure and adoption across the globe.
Why is the $58,000 level significant?Mow bases his optimistic outlook on the fact that Bitcoin set a new all-time high 37 days before the recent halving. In his view, this occurrence disrupted classic market patterns observed in previous cycles and signaled a permanent acceleration in Bitcoin’s cycle dynamics.
He argues that, in this context, analysis projecting a deeper capitulation within the next four months have lost credibility. Mow believes that relying on past cycle behaviors fails to account for the realities of the current market structure.
Samson Mow stated that because Bitcoin broke its all-time high before the halving, old cycle models are now obsolete, and scenarios predicting a sharp selloff in the coming months no longer carry the same weight.
A sharp critique of technical analysisMow also takes aim at proponents of traditional technical analysis. He argues that the claim—that charts can perfectly predict the future—contradicts real investor behavior. If such forecasting were possible, analysts could simply sell at the top and wait for the bottom, eliminating the need for constant new chart patterns.
In his view, classic chart reading has become detached from the market’s real dynamics in current conditions. Mow emphasizes that liquidity distribution and the clustering of buy and sell orders play a much larger role in price formation than technical formations or chart patterns.
How did the buy wall offset selling pressure?Mow argues that the primary reason for Bitcoin’s recent stability is the large pool of buy-side liquidity around $58,000. He explains that the concentrated limit buy orders at this level absorbed selling pressure, thus preventing a steeper decline.
He maintains that the successful defense of this price zone has clearly established a local bottom for Bitcoin. For those investors waiting to enter at lower levels, Mow suggests that their window of opportunity has now largely closed.
Strategy and the Tether debate addressedMow also commented on the latest criticisms aimed at major institutional players. He noted that recent skepticism directed at Strategy is a new version of the fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) campaigns that once targeted Tether.
Backing his view, Mow pointed to Tether’s first quarter 2026 results, which showed a net profit of $1.04 billion and total assets of $191.77 billion. In Mow’s assessment, these figures undermine claims that coordinated market pressures are weakening the company or the broader ecosystem.
Mow asserted that the criticisms leveled at Strategy resemble a new wave of Tether fear mongering, but that Tether’s reported $1.04 billion net profit and $191.77 billion in assets for Q1 2026 weaken these narratives.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The crypto ranking experienced a rare shift on June 26. Tether’s USDT briefly surpassed Ether in market capitalization, becoming the second cryptocurrency in the market behind Bitcoin. This reversal did not come from an increase in the USDT price, but from Ethereum’s sharp drop to its lowest level in 2026.
In brief USDT briefly surpassed Ether with over 186 billion dollars in capitalization. Ethereum fell near 1,510 dollars, its lowest level in 2026. The growth of stablecoins reveals a crypto market that has become more defensive. USDT reached a capitalization close to 186.06 billion dollars. At the same time, Ether’s capitalization fell to around 185.66 billion. Tether’s stablecoin thus temporarily occupied the second place in the crypto ranking. A scenario that some observers had already considered when Ethereum’s position began to seem less solid.
The crossover remained narrow. By June 27, Ether had recovered a capitalization close to 190 billion dollars thanks to a rebound in its price. USDT remained around 186 billion, with no major variation in its unit value.
This difference highlights a key particularity. Ethereum’s capitalization depends directly on the price of ETH. USDT’s capitalization evolves mainly according to the number of tokens in circulation, as each unit aims to maintain a value close to one dollar.
The surpassing therefore does not mean that investors have suddenly valued Tether as a blockchain technology superior to Ethereum. It rather shows that digital dollars are gaining ground while volatile crypto assets retreat.
Ethereum falls to its lowest level in 2026 Ether fell near 1,510 dollars on Coinbase, its lowest level of the year. The drop reached about 5.2% over twenty-four hours and nearly 9% over a week. It was enough to push its capitalization below that of USDT.
The correction becomes even more striking when compared to the August 2025 peak. At that time, ETH traded around 4,946 dollars. The decline now exceeds 68%, bringing the price back to levels seen in 2023 and April 2025.
Ethereum nevertheless retains significant activity in decentralized finance, stablecoins, and tokenization. But the crypto market does not automatically reward the use of a network. Demand for its token also depends on the economic context, speculation, and investor confidence.
This weakness does not only affect Ether. It weighs on all altcoins, often more sensitive to capital outflows than Bitcoin. When risk increases, investors often favor liquidity or assets considered more defensive.
Stablecoins rise in the crypto rankings USDT is not the only stablecoin to have benefited from the decline. Circle’s USDC also surpassed XRP in capitalization. USDC was nearly 74 billion dollars, against about 65 billion for XRP after its fall to one dollar.
Again, stablecoins did not experience a spectacular price increase. Their value remained close to one dollar. It is the competing crypto assets that declined, allowing stable digital currencies to gain ground.
This growth also reflects a real increase in their supply. The stablecoin market reached new records in 2026, even as several major cryptocurrencies lost value. USDT retains first place, while USDC gains ground in payments and on-chain transactions.
Stablecoins now represent a significant share of the total crypto capitalization. They serve as a temporary reserve for traders, a means of settlement in DeFi, and a tool for international transfers. Their demand no longer depends solely on periods of speculative euphoria.
For Ethereum, the challenge now is to turn its technical activity into a sustainable demand for ETH. For Tether, the issue will be to maintain confidence around its reserves and its dollar peg. In both cases, this episode confirms that stablecoins are no longer just secondary tools. They now occupy the center of the crypto market.
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Lydie M.
Enseignante et ingénieure IT, Lydie découvre le Bitcoin en 2022 et plonge dans l’univers des cryptomonnaies. Elle vulgarise des sujets complexes, décrypte les enjeux du Web3 et défend une vision d’un futur numérique ouvert, inclusif et décentralisé.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Chainlink‘s native token LINK is currently testing a pivotal support zone seen as critical for short-term price direction, as market participants closely monitor whether this level will be maintained. At the time of writing, LINK was trading at $7.29, with a 24-hour trading volume of $171.54 million and a market capitalization of $5.3 billion. Although LINK slipped 1.72% in the past 24 hours, price action and accumulation data continue to keep the possibility of a rebound in focus.
Support level seen as key for near-term directionCrypto market analyst Alpha Crypto Signal noted that LINK has retraced its recent gains following a reverse V-shaped move on the daily chart, erasing much of the advance made during its previous rally and reinforcing a cautious sentiment in the market.
LINK is currently testing a critical horizontal neckline support—a region traders have been closely watching—made even more important by mounting sell pressure. If this support holds, a relief rally toward resistance at $8.64 could play out, according to market observers.
Alpha Crypto Signal explained that LINK is now challenging a crucial neckline support on its daily chart. Holding this level could open the way to a rebound toward $8.64, while a break below would likely strengthen the downward trend.
Conversely, if LINK closes a daily session below this support, the technical outlook could shift in favor of sellers. In that scenario, market structure would likely deteriorate further, raising the prospect of deeper losses.
Chainlink boosts reserves with fresh LINK purchaseDespite heightened price pressure, Chainlink added another 593,088 LINK to its reserves in June, with the acquisition valued at over $4.6 million. This recent addition brings the Chainlink Reserve’s balance to 4,504,167 LINK in total.
Known for its decentralized oracle network that brings off-chain data to smart contracts, Chainlink’s move to increase reserves is being closely monitored as part of efforts to bolster ecosystem development and ensure long-term financial resilience.
Mini glossary: An oracle is infrastructure that allows blockchains to securely access data from external sources. Chainlink is among the most widely used networks in this domain, playing a pivotal role in decentralized finance, tokenized real-world assets, and cross-chain applications.
The growing reserve size is fueling expectations that Chainlink is positioning for expansion in decentralized finance, tokenized real-world assets, and cross-chain infrastructure. Strengthening the treasury structure is viewed as a sign of confidence in the company’s long-term strategy.
Market continues to exercise cautionNonetheless, despite reserve accumulation and the potential for positive technical developments, downward pressure on the LINK price remains. Caution across the broader cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin‘s sideways movement are among the key factors limiting upside momentum for LINK.
As a result, short-term market direction hinges on whether this technical support zone holds. Investors are closely watching both the $8.64 resistance and the risk of a daily close beneath support, as these will help gauge the token’s recovery prospects and overall market sentiment.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responded to criticism over the company’s promotion of high-risk products to young and financially vulnerable users. He called for responsible product design that does not restrict adult choice.
Zcash founder Zooko publicly criticized Coinbase for promoting sports betting and Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction to inexperienced users. Armstrong acknowledged the tension, noting that companies must balance user freedom against platform responsibility.
The CEO argued on X that companies should not aggressively promote high-risk products to unsophisticated users. A clear distinction exists between making products available and actively pushing them on people least equipped to handle the risks.
Three practical measures followed from that position. Platforms should offer clearer risk disclosures, built-in financial literacy tools, and user preference settings to control which products appear. Together, these options could create a more personalized experience without removing adult access.
Additionally, Zooko’s criticism targeted how Coinbase surfaces Bitcoin price prediction and sports betting to inexperienced users. That kind of aggressive in-app promotion crosses a line, Armstrong said, even if the products themselves remain available.
Interesting — and I appreciate the take.
I think there’s a balance here.
I’m pro-freedom. Consenting adults should be able to do what they want with their own money, as long as they’re not harming others. I don’t want companies patronizing users or dictating what they can do…
— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) June 28, 2026 Criticism Arrives as Coinbase Expands Its ReachThe Coinbase chief recently commented on Coinbase’s Bitcoin market view, noting AI cost reductions alongside broader product expansion. Responsible design, he suggested, needs to accompany that growth rather than trail it. However, those ambitions now face questions about whether user safety has kept pace.
Meanwhile, scrutiny of Coinbase’s 2026 product direction reflects the broader sentiment around the company’s trajectory. Critics have argued that feature expansion has outpaced user protections. That tension sharpened further with Zooko’s public call-out this week.
Beyond the exchange, Coinbase’s Base chain B20 push and Coinbase Luxembourg MiCA hub show a widening footprint. That scope makes it harder to enforce product design standards uniformly across user segments.
Coinbase (COIN) Stock 1-Year Performance Chart. Source: NasdaqThe CEO also addressed whether sports prediction markets should exist at all. Private companies should not decide that question on their own. Instead, democratic processes are better suited to establish those limits.
The position separates two types of responsibility. How a platform promotes products differs from whether those products should exist.
The Coinbase CEO supports tighter design standards, including opt-in controls and personalized risk settings. Nevertheless, the case for regulatory rather than corporate limits remains central to that position.
Stacks has secured a place in Coinbase’s COIN50 Index, the exchange’s flagship benchmark that tracks the 50 largest and most liquid digital assets. STX sits at roughly the 40th position with an index market cap of around $319.6 million and a weight of 0.04%.
What the COIN50 Index actually is Coinbase launched the COIN50 Index on November 12, 2024, as a transparent benchmark for institutional investors looking to gauge the broader crypto market without manually sorting through thousands of tokens.
The index is weighted heavily toward the obvious giants. Bitcoin commands roughly 50% of the total weight, with Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and even Dogecoin rounding out the top positions. The remaining assets, including STX, occupy the long tail with individually small weightings.
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Coinbase also built a perpetual futures contract tied to the COIN50, giving traders a single instrument to express a view on the entire top-50 basket.
A 0.04% weight means Stacks isn’t moving the needle on any portfolio allocation by itself. But inclusion in the index signals that STX meets Coinbase’s liquidity and market cap thresholds, which are the same filters institutional compliance teams use when deciding what’s investable and what isn’t.
Why Stacks matters in the Bitcoin Layer 2 conversation Stacks occupies an unusual niche. It’s a smart contract platform that settles transactions on Bitcoin, effectively giving Bitcoin programmability without modifying Bitcoin’s base layer. The protocol enables mining rewards, staking, and decentralized applications, all anchored to Bitcoin’s security model. Its flagship product in this regard is sBTC, a Bitcoin-backed asset designed to let holders earn yield while keeping their BTC exposure intact.
The protocol also completed an integration with Fireblocks on June 17, 2026, the institutional custody and settlement platform. That integration matters because Fireblocks is the plumbing behind many of the largest crypto funds and trading desks. If an institution can’t custody an asset through its existing infrastructure, it typically won’t touch it. Fireblocks support removes that friction.
What this means for investors STX’s $319.6 million index market cap makes it one of the smaller constituents in the COIN50. Smaller assets in weighted indexes can get dropped during quarterly rebalances if their market cap or liquidity deteriorates. Staying in the index requires Stacks to maintain its current market position, which is far from guaranteed in a sector where rankings shift quickly.
For traders, the COIN50 inclusion creates a subtle but real liquidity benefit. Index-linked products generate baseline trading volume, and market makers who arbitrage the index against its components will naturally add depth to STX order books.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
The altcoin market is showing early signs of resilience that could set the stage for a short-term recovery, even as macroeconomic conditions remain deeply unfavourable, according to a weekend update from crypto analyst Cilinix Crypto.
The update opened by laying out just how difficult the backdrop is. Equities pushed lower last week. Bitcoin and Strategy came under significant pressure. New escalations in the Middle East added another layer of uncertainty over the weekend. By any conventional measure, the fundamentals are bearish.
And yet the price of altcoins has not collapsed in line with those fundamentals. That divergence is the most important signal in the market right now.
The analyst said that bottoms usually form when the fundamentals are still very bearish. It is usually when we have max fear and when the fundamentals seem at their worst.
The price action between Wednesday and Friday of last week was cited as a concrete example. During that window, fundamentals got worse, not better. Yet the market held its lows and even printed higher lows, which the analyst described as a sign of strength in a bearish environment.
Funding Rates Turning Negative Is a Bullish Signal
The more technical part of the case rests on funding rates. Several altcoins are seeing funding rates turn sharply negative, including XRP, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Cardano. Litecoin in particular stood out because it was moving higher on the day while its funding rate turned more negative.
Negative funding rates in a rising or stable price environment typically indicate that spot buyers are in control rather than leveraged longs, a healthier and more sustainable form of buying pressure.
“Spot is buying. Is this enough to go fully bullish? No. But it is a bullish sign.”
This was described as a signal rather than a confirmation, with the analyst noting the altcoin market still lacks the structural clarity needed to declare a full recovery.
Two Conditions Must Be Met
Two specific things need to happen before a recovery becomes the base case.
First, broader financial markets need to open on Monday in a relatively stable manner. There is a risk that weekend geopolitical escalations get fully priced in at the Monday open, which could lead to a sharp gap down. Until that risk clears, caution remains appropriate.
Second, altcoins need to reclaim the seven-day rolling VWAP and the monthly value area low. The Total 3 chart, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, was highlighted as the key benchmark. If Total 3 can reclaim those levels while funding rates remain negative and macro conditions are at least neutral, a meaningful recovery becomes the most likely scenario.
Altcoins Worth Watching
Several names were flagged as showing relative strength. Solana has held up notably well compared to the broader altcoin market. Litecoin has already reclaimed both the monthly value area low and the seven-day rolling VWAP, described as technically meaningful with genuine long-term buying interest expressed. Pengu, Sky as a potentially oversold setup, and Syrup were also mentioned as names worth monitoring if broader recovery conditions are confirmed.
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Cryptocurrency analysts have noted that the 200-week simple moving average stands out as a significant bottoming indicator for Bitcoin in long-term market cycles.
Analyst Ali Martinez, evaluating Bitcoin’s price trend over the past 10 years, stated that periods when the price historically touched or fell below this average generally presented long-term accumulation opportunities.
According to Martinez, Bitcoin has recorded strong gains in past cycles after touching the 200-week moving average. Historical data shows that after testing this level in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, Bitcoin gained 8,500%, 267%, 1,125%, and 680% respectively.
Currently, Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average is at $63,500. Analysts believe that a price trading below $60,000 indicates that the market has entered a long-term accumulation zone.
However, Ali Martinez pointed out that the risk of a short-term pullback persists. He stated that the Bitcoin price could fall to $54,000, and in a more severe scenario, the $40,000 level could come into play. According to Martinez, the $63,500 level is being watched as a critical bull-bear divide for Bitcoin. If the price regains this level and maintains its position above it, it could signal the beginning of a new bull market.
*This is not investment advice.
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PANews June 28 news, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler said in a weekly analysis that FUD sentiment surrounding Strategy persists, with the company's mNAV (market net asset value ratio) falling below 1, meaning the market's "premium pricing" for Strategy's business model has disappeared — that is, the market is no longer willing to pay a price for its shares higher than the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Although this does not mean the company will face immediate risk, it will significantly increase the difficulty of financing through common stock issuance and continuing to accumulate Bitcoin. The current core question is whether Strategy can still fulfill its dividend obligations without selling Bitcoin and continue to secure new funding.
Axel Adler added that the Bitcoin market is entering a "structural stress phase," characterized by localized capitulation among short-term holders, deteriorating liquidity, new capital inflows turning negative, and mounting pressure on key valuation and support levels. He suggested paying close attention to Bitcoin's "Realized Price Bands" to determine whether the market is in an overheated, fair value, or structural stress zone.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has responded after Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox criticized the exchange over alleged betting prompts inside the Coinbase app.
Summary
Coinbase CEO backs user choice but warns high-risk products need careful in-app promotion rules. Zooko’s complaint turned Coinbase prediction markets into a debate over vulnerable users and app design. Coinbase’s broader product push adds betting-style markets while regulators argue over sports event contracts nationwide. The exchange chief defended user choice, but said platforms should treat high-risk products with care when serving less experienced users.
Zooko criticizes betting prompts Zooko said on X that he had spoken with a young and financially vulnerable Coinbase user. He claimed the app had started prompting that user to bet on sports and the price of Bitcoin.
He said the situation made him “ashamed” to be part of the crypto industry. His post quickly turned into a wider debate about how large crypto apps should promote prediction markets and similar products.
The criticism comes as Coinbase expands beyond spot crypto trading. Recent coverage of Coinbase’s pre-IPO perpetual futures described the firm’s push to combine crypto, stocks, prediction markets and futures inside one account.
That wider product strategy gives users more ways to trade. It also raises questions about how trading apps present risk, especially when products look simple inside a mobile interface.
Armstrong says adults should choose Armstrong replied that he is “pro-freedom” and believes adults should be able to use their money as they choose, as long as they do not harm others. He also said there is no perfect line between investing and gambling.
Interesting — and I appreciate the take.
I think there’s a balance here.
I’m pro-freedom. Consenting adults should be able to do what they want with their own money, as long as they’re not harming others. I don’t want companies patronizing users or dictating what they can do…
— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) June 28, 2026 The Coinbase CEO added that buying early Bitcoin, Zcash or stocks could also be described as gambling by some people. His point was that risk depends on the product, the user and the context.
Still, Armstrong agreed with part of Zooko’s concern. He said it does not feel right to “aggressively promote high-risk products to unsophisticated users.”
He also said there is a difference between making a product available and making it the main focus of an app. That distinction now sits at the center of the debate.
Prediction markets face regulatory pressure Coinbase’s sports prediction markets page says the products are offered through Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant. The page also warns that prediction contracts involve high risk and may lead to the loss of the full investment.
Sports event contracts remain a disputed area in the U.S. In related coverage, Kentucky sued Kalshi, Polymarket and partners tied to Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull, saying the products looked like sports wagering under state law.
The CFTC took the opposite view and argued that Kalshi and Polymarket fall under federal oversight as designated contract markets. The dispute now centers on whether sports contracts belong under federal derivatives rules or state gambling laws.
Former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler also weighed in through a court filing, saying sports prediction contracts do not qualify as swaps under U.S. derivatives law. That filing added another layer to the legal debate.
Coinbase weighs access and safety Armstrong suggested that Coinbase could use clearer disclosures, AI-based financial literacy tools and more personal app settings. He said users could choose whether to enable or disable certain product groups during onboarding.
That approach would let users decide what they see without removing access for everyone. It would also give Coinbase a way to answer concerns about younger or less experienced users seeing betting-style prompts.
The debate shows how fast crypto apps are changing. Platforms no longer offer only coins and tokens. Many now offer event contracts, derivatives and other products that behave more like financial bets.
For Coinbase, the issue is not only whether users can access these markets. The next question is how strongly the app should promote them and what safeguards should appear before users place trades.
Bitcoin trades at $60,323 as of June 28, 2026, up 0.1% over 24 hours but down 5.6% on the week, holding just above the psychologically critical $60,000 level. The 24-hour volume reads $15.3 billion against a market cap of $1.21 trillion. This analysis covers the technical structure and a significant structural development: for the first time, Strategy’s market valuation has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
The mNAV inversion: a structural first The most important development this week is not on the price chart. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder at 843,706 BTC, has seen its stock valuation fall below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. Its mNAV, the ratio of market value to Bitcoin holdings, has dropped below 1.0.
This matters structurally. For years, Strategy traded at a premium to its Bitcoin, meaning the market valued the company above the coins it held. That premium gave it flexibility to raise capital by issuing shares and buy more Bitcoin, the engine of its accumulation model. With the stock now below NAV, that mechanism is impaired: issuing shares below the value of the underlying Bitcoin is dilutive and harder to justify. A company executive affirmed the holdings are “indestructible” and safe from forced sales, but the premium that powered the buying has inverted.
The data point to watch, flagged by analysts, is that the mNAV near 0.72 mirrors the 0.7 low from the 2022 bull-to-bear transition. Historically, a genuine Bitcoin bottom formed roughly six months after that signal appeared.
Price structure The trend is bearish across timeframes. BTC sits below all major moving averages. It touched an intraday low near $58,189 on June 26, its lowest since September 2024, before rebounding toward $60,000. The 200-week moving average near $62,457 now acts as resistance after being lost, a structural negative.
The daily RSI is oversold below 30, indicating stretched momentum and elevated bounce odds, though oversold has persisted through this decline. Notably, 14 AI models surveyed projected BTC range-bound between $60,000 and $68,000 over 30 days, with year-end estimates spanning $50,000 to $85,000, a wide band reflecting low directional conviction.
Flows and the expiry aftermath ETF flows remain the dominant negative variable. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow near $692 million on June 25, the largest single-day redemption since May 27. Analysts note annual growth in ETF Bitcoin holdings has stalled to “basically zero,” meaning the funds are now contributing to sell-side supply rather than absorbing it. This is the structural pressure preventing recovery.
The $10.6 billion quarterly options expiry has now passed, removing one volatility variable. Over $1.1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated into the recent low, consistent with a leverage flush. Strategy’s June 30 ex-dividend date and its STRC dividend rate reset are the next scheduled events to monitor.
The operative range is $58,189 to $62,457. Holding $58,189 keeps the structure from deteriorating further; reclaiming $62,457 would neutralize the bearish breach. The mNAV inversion and ETF outflows are the structural factors that must resolve before a durable bottom forms.
Summary Bitcoin at $60,323 holds above $60,000 amid a structural first: Strategy’s stock has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin, inverting the premium that powered its accumulation model. The technical structure is bearish, ETF outflows hit $692 million on June 25, and the mNAV near 0.72 echoes the 2022 transition low. The $58,189 floor and $62,457 reclaim define the next move. Until ETF flows reverse and the mNAV recovers, the structural bid stays weak.
FAQ What is the Bitcoin price today?
Bitcoin trades at $60,323 as of June 28, 2026, up 0.1% over 24 hours but down 5.6% on the week, holding just above $60,000 after touching $58,189 on June 26.
Why did Strategy’s stock fall below its Bitcoin holdings?
Strategy’s mNAV, the ratio of its market value to its Bitcoin holdings, dropped below 1.0 for the first time. The premium that let it raise capital to buy more Bitcoin has inverted, impairing its accumulation model, though executives affirm the holdings are safe from forced sales.
What is the key Bitcoin support level?
Immediate support is the recent low of $58,189, with major support at $55,000 and the cycle level at $50,000. The 200-week MA at $62,457 is the key resistance to reclaim.
Why is Bitcoin falling?
Bitcoin is pressured by ETF outflows of $692 million on June 25, with ETF holdings growth stalled to near zero, a leverage flush of over $1.1 billion, and a hawkish Fed. The ETF outflows are the dominant structural factor.
When will Bitcoin bottom?
Some analysts note Strategy’s mNAV near 0.72 mirrors the 2022 transition low, after which a genuine bottom historically formed about six months later. A durable bottom likely requires ETF outflows to reverse.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile. Always do your own research.
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Farhan Karim is a technology writer and content strategist with 15+ years of experience writing thousands of articles, blogs, whitepapers, and ebooks on Blockchain, Cryptocurrency, and other tech niches. His expertise in content strategy, SEO, and a keen eye on the ever-evolving tech space have led him to work with companies like Pepsi, Huawei, Arab News, and now Blockchain Reporter.
Samson Mow dismisses technical analysis, pointing to a massive $58,000 limit order wall protecting Bitcoin from further drops.
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Bitcoin maximalist and Jan3 CEO Samson Mow stated that the local bearish trend has ended and that the current cycle has reached its bottom. In his view, the main protective barrier for the market now is a dense wall of limit orders at the $58,000 level.
The reason for Mow's optimism was the fact that, in the current cycle, Bitcoin updated its all-time high (ATH) 37 days before the halving, and the entrepreneur is convinced that this precedent completely breaks old market models. He emphasized that Bitcoin cycles have irreversibly accelerated, which means that calculations by analysts expecting market capitulation over the next four months are no longer relevant.
I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in 4 months because "cycles." But we had an ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles you should reason out the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in.
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— Samson Mow (@Excellion) June 28, 2026 Against this backdrop, the Jan3 CEO harshly criticized supporters of classical technical analysis, pointing to a logical contradiction in traders' behavior, saying that if charts really predicted the future perfectly, analysts should simply sell at the tops and passively wait for the bottom instead of drawing "endless lines."
In his opinion, traditional chart analysis is now completely detached from reality.
How the $58,000 buy wall closed the window for Bitcoin bearsInstead of patterns, Mow named a massive block of buy-side liquidity as the real reason for the Bitcoin market's stabilization. According to him, it was the dense wall of limit orders at the $58,000 level that fully absorbed selling pressure and protected the market from a further collapse.
Bitcoin price action in 2026, Source: TradingViewMow concluded that the successful buyback of this zone definitively formed a local bottom and closed the window of opportunity for investors who had been hoping to enter the asset at lower prices.
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At the same time, Mow also commented on the current information attacks against major institutional players, agreeing with the view that criticism of Strategy is turning into a new version of "Tether FUD." As an argument, he referred to the latest financial results of USDT issuer Tether for the first quarter of 2026, where, according to the report, Tether's net profit reached $1.04 billion with total assets of $191.77 billion.
In Mow's view, this proves the complete failure of attempts to destabilize the market through coordinated FUD.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on May 10, 2026, that the military campaign against Iran “is not over” until all enriched uranium is removed from the country and its nuclear enrichment sites are dismantled. The statement effectively puts diplomacy on a timer, with force positioned as the fallback if negotiations stall.
The crypto market is paying attention. Bitcoin slid to around $104K amid the escalation, and Iranian exchanges saw Bitcoin outflows surge roughly 700% in the days following the initial strikes.
What’s happening on the ground The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran began on February 28, 2026, and continued for 20 days. Netanyahu has claimed that the strikes significantly degraded Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities and missile production infrastructure.
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Netanyahu’s latest comments make clear that the job, as Israel defines it, isn’t finished. Remaining nuclear materials need to be physically removed from Iranian territory, and he’s signaled that military action remains a live option if that doesn’t happen through other channels.
How crypto markets are reacting Bitcoin’s drop to approximately $104K during the escalation reflects a classic risk-off response. Bitcoin outflows from Iranian exchanges surged approximately 700% in the days after the February 28 strikes began. Iranian entities appear to be accelerating their use of digital assets to move value outside the country’s borders, likely as a mechanism to circumvent sanctions that have tightened considerably since the military campaign began.
Meanwhile, a Polymarket contract focused on whether the US and Iran would reach a nuclear deal by June 30 attracted $11.3 million in trading volume, suggesting that traders see the probability of a deal as genuinely uncertain rather than a foregone conclusion in either direction.
The broader context for investors The 700% outflow spike from Iranian exchanges represents an accelerating structural trend where digital assets become tools of economic survival in sanctioned economies. Every major jurisdiction is watching how effectively crypto enables sanctions evasion, and the data coming out of this conflict will almost certainly inform future policy responses.
For institutional investors, this means the regulatory risk premium on crypto assets could increase if Western governments decide that the Iran situation demonstrates a need for tighter controls on digital asset flows. The $11.3 million in volume on a single Iran-related Polymarket contract suggests the market expects this story to continue evolving, with potential for further price dislocations in either direction depending on whether diplomacy or force prevails.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Strategy is roughly $12 billion underwater on its Bitcoin, its stock has fallen below its net asset value, and its STRC preferred shares have crashed to a record discount as a law firm opens a fraud probe. Michael Saylor says nothing is wrong. The machine that bought 847,000 Bitcoin is being tested like never before. Here is what is actually happening.
Summary
Strategy holds 847,363 Bitcoin, the largest corporate stockpile in the world, bought at an average cost near $75,650, leaving the position roughly $12 billion underwater with Bitcoin below $60,000. MSTR stock has fallen below $100 for the first time in about two years, trading at a discount to the Bitcoin it owns, which breaks the premium that powered its fundraising model. The sharpest stress is in STRC, Strategy’s preferred stock designed to trade near $100, which crashed to a record low near $74 as dividend obligations quadrupled to $1.2 billion and cash coverage collapsed from over seven years to about 14 months. A law firm has opened a securities-fraud investigation into Strategy and Saylor, and analysts including CryptoQuant have urged the company to stop buying Bitcoin and rebuild cash. Saylor says Strategy’s Bitcoin and cash exceed its debt by roughly $48 billion and points to surviving a worse 2022; the debate is whether this is a temporary confidence shock or a structural flaw in the model. For five years, Michael Saylor’s company had one move, and it worked beautifully: issue securities, buy Bitcoin, watch the stock rise, repeat.
Strategy, the firm formerly known as MicroStrategy, rode that flywheel to a stockpile of 847,363 Bitcoin, roughly 4% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist and the largest corporate hoard on earth.
The mechanism depended on a simple condition: that Bitcoin kept climbing and that Strategy’s stock traded at a premium to the Bitcoin on its balance sheet, so the company could sell shares to buy more coins on favorable terms.
In June 2026 that condition broke.
Bitcoin slid below $60,000, dragging Strategy’s position roughly $12 billion below what it paid for its coins. Its stock, MSTR, fell under $100 for the first time in about two years and is now trading at a discount to the very Bitcoin it holds.
And the company’s preferred stock, a security called STRC that was engineered to sit near $100, crashed to a record low around $74.
On top of the financial squeeze, a law firm has opened a securities-fraud investigation into the company and Saylor himself.
The flywheel that defined a half-decade of relentless accumulation is, for the first time, visibly spinning in reverse.
The question this raises is the one now dividing the market: is Strategy facing a temporary loss of confidence that a Bitcoin recovery would erase, or is something structurally broken in the model itself?
The stakes are large, because Strategy controls about 4% of all Bitcoin, and any sign that its machine is failing reverberates across a market already fragile from the June sell-off.
This piece works through what is actually happening, without either the doom that some critics project or the serenity that Saylor performs.
It explains the three interlocking pieces that make up Strategy’s structure and why they are straining at once, the specific crisis in the STRC preferred stock, the fraud investigation and the criticism from analysts, Saylor’s defense and the case that the company is fine, the genuinely difficult choices the company now faces, and what would resolve the question in either direction.
The aim is a clear, grounded picture of a financial machine under its sharpest stress in years, and an honest assessment of whether it is bending or breaking.
The three legs of the machine To understand why Strategy is under pressure, you have to understand how its structure works, because the strain comes from three interdependent pieces leaning on one another and weakening at the same time.
The first leg is Bitcoin itself, the reserve asset, which Strategy holds in enormous quantity and treats as a permanent store of value that only grows over time.
The crucial feature of Bitcoin for this purpose is also its limitation: it produces no income. It pays no dividend and no interest, so while it can sit on the balance sheet appreciating, it generates none of the cash the company needs to meet its obligations.
That gap between a non-yielding reserve asset and cash obligations is the hinge on which the whole structure turns.
The second leg is MSTR, the common stock, which functions as the engine.
When MSTR trades above the value of the Bitcoin behind it, at a premium, Strategy can sell shares to buy more Bitcoin, and the premium makes that buying accretive, adding more Bitcoin per share than it dilutes.
This is the mechanics of the reversal that now matters. The same flywheel that works in a bull market starts to drag when the premium disappears.
The engine works in reverse when the premium disappears: raising $500 million at $500 a share takes 1 million shares, while raising the same amount at $50 takes 10 million shares.
That is the same cash for 10 times the dilution, which erodes the very reason to hold MSTR.
The third leg is STRC, the credit leg, a preferred stock with a stated value of $100 that pays a cash dividend, recently yielding around 11.5%.
STRC works only as long as investors trust that the dividend will keep coming, and Strategy can raise the rate to attract buyers when the price slips.
Each leg holds up the others. Bitcoin is the collateral story that supports the stock, the stock is the engine that funds the buying, and the preferred is the credit instrument that raises cash.
When all three weaken at once, as they have, the question shifts from how much Bitcoin Strategy owns to whether it has the dollars to keep its word.
That shift is the heart of the current crisis.
The STRC crisis The most acute stress is concentrated in STRC, and it is worth understanding in detail because it is where an abstract worry becomes a concrete problem.
STRC, formally a variable-rate perpetual preferred stock, was designed to trade near its $100 stated value, held there by a variable dividend mechanism that raises the payout to keep the price anchored.
Saylor has spent months explaining the structure publicly, framing STRC as part of Strategy’s broader Bitcoin-backed capital machine.
JUST IN: Michael Saylor explains Strategy’s STRC Preferred Stock on KevinWSH podcast. Breaks down product Peter Schiff calls a “Ponzi scheme” pic.twitter.com/EReAclQjdT
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) May 29, 2026 That design has failed under pressure.
STRC crashed to a record low, touching around $74 intraday before recovering somewhat, leaving it trading roughly a quarter below the par value it was engineered to hold.
A preferred stock trading that far below par is the market’s way of saying it demands far more yield before it will treat the instrument as sound, which is a vote of diminishing confidence in the dividend behind it.
The reason for that lost confidence is a squeeze coming from both directions at once.
As Strategy issued more and more STRC over the first half of 2026 to fund Bitcoin purchases, its annual dividend obligations ballooned from about $300 million at the start of the year to roughly $1.2 billion, a near fourfold increase in under six months.
At the same time, its cash reserves fell by 38% over the same period, drained in part by a $1.5 billion repurchase of convertible debt in May.
The result is a collapse in what analysts call dividend coverage, the measure of how long the company’s cash could keep funding the payouts: it fell from more than seven years to approximately 14 months.
A particularly unforgiving feature of STRC compounds the problem. Its dividends are cumulative, meaning any payment Strategy skips still has to be made up later.
So the company cannot simply switch the dividends off to conserve cash, and it is unlikely to suspend them anyway because doing so would shatter its credibility with the preferred holders it depends on.
CryptoQuant calculated that to restore a healthy 24 months of coverage and let STRC recover its peg, Strategy would need to rebuild its reserve to roughly $2.8 billion, against the roughly $1.4 billion it holds.
That is why CryptoQuant’s warning that Strategy should pause Bitcoin purchases and rebuild cash matters. The issue is not just the price of STRC; it is whether the cash behind the whole preferred-stock structure is thick enough to survive a prolonged Bitcoin drawdown.
STRC, in short, is the leg that is visibly cracking, and it is cracking because the cash behind its promises is running thinner while the promises themselves have multiplied.
The fraud probe and the analyst warnings The financial squeeze has now drawn legal and analytical fire, which has intensified the pressure and the scrutiny.
A plaintiff law firm announced a securities-fraud investigation into Strategy and Michael Saylor, soliciting investors who bought the company’s securities and incurred losses, and saying it is examining whether the company may have issued materially misleading business information to the investing public.
The probe covers all five of Strategy’s publicly traded securities, the common stock and four series of preferred.
It is important to be precise about the status of this: an investigation announcement of this kind is common in volatile sectors, no class action has actually been filed, the allegations are unproven, and Strategy has not publicly responded.
It does not establish wrongdoing.
But it adds a layer of legal uncertainty and reputational pressure at the worst possible moment, and it has fed the narrative that something is wrong.
That narrative intensified because prominent critics have also tied the decline in MSTR and STRC to broader Bitcoin weakness, arguing that Strategy’s structure is no longer a harmless side story but a market stress point.
The analytical warnings have been sharper and more substantive than the legal noise.
CryptoQuant published a detailed report urging Strategy to stop buying Bitcoin and rebuild its cash position before resuming accumulation, laying out the collapse in dividend coverage and noting that the company sits on a large unrealized loss with every Bitcoin bought in 2024, 2025, and 2026 now underwater.
Its chief executive argued that a forced Bitcoin sale at current prices would crystallize those losses and destroy shareholder value.
He also separately observed that Strategy’s relentless buying had begun to look more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst, absorbing capital without moving Bitcoin’s price upward.
Another firm suggested Strategy might eventually need to sell $3 billion to $4 billion of Bitcoin to ease the pressure on its capital structure, though it assigned that outcome only a modest probability and saw continued small stock sales as the likelier path.
Not all of the analysis was bearish. One firm rejected comparisons between STRC and the collapsed Terra stablecoin, arguing the funding engine had become less efficient rather than broken.
But the weight of the commentary converged on a single uncomfortable message: Strategy has overextended itself by buying too aggressively while its cash thinned, and the model needs to change, at least temporarily, to stabilize.
Saylor’s defense Michael Saylor’s response to all of this has been characteristically defiant, and his arguments deserve a fair hearing because they are not without merit.
His central rebuttal, made in a public post, is one of scale: Strategy’s Bitcoin and cash reserves exceed its outstanding debt by roughly $48 billion, a cushion so large that talk of insolvency or forced selling, in his framing, misunderstands the company’s actual financial position.
He has emphasized that Strategy has raised more than $60 billion in additional capital since 2022 and invested it in Bitcoin, building the largest corporate stockpile in the world.
He points to that track record as evidence of a model that works through cycles rather than one on the verge of collapse.
His most pointed argument is historical.
Saylor has reminded the market that Strategy faced a far worse situation in the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin fell below $16,000 and the company’s debt actually exceeded the combined value of its Bitcoin and cash reserves, with the stock falling roughly from the mid-$20s to the low teens on a split-adjusted basis.
Strategy survived that, he notes, by staying focused and continuing to execute its strategy, and went on to raise tens of billions more and add hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin.
The implication is clear: the company has been underwater before, in a deeper hole than today’s, and not only survived but expanded dramatically once Bitcoin recovered.
That makes the current stress, in Saylor’s framing, a familiar test rather than an existential threat.
Defenders have echoed and extended this case, with some arguing that Bitcoin’s market value cannot be pinned on any single individual and dismissing the comparisons between Strategy and collapsed crypto projects.
Others have praised STRC as a genuinely innovative instrument that strips volatility from Bitcoin exposure and could serve an enormous market.
Notably, Saylor has not publicly addressed the fraud investigation or the CryptoQuant warning directly, choosing instead to make the broad case for the company’s strength.
His defense, in essence, is that the fundamentals dwarf the fears, that the company has weathered worse, and that the panic reflects a temporary loss of confidence instead of a real flaw.
The hard choices Whatever the rhetoric on either side, Strategy now faces a set of truly difficult choices, and laying them out shows why the situation is more than a passing scare even if it is not a collapse.
The company needs cash to fund STRC’s growing dividends and to rebuild the reserve that supports confidence in those dividends, and every available path to that cash carries a cost.
It can issue more common stock, but with MSTR trading below the value of its Bitcoin, doing so means heavy dilution that further erodes the reason to hold the stock, weakening the engine.
It can issue more preferred stock or raise STRC’s dividend rate to attract buyers, but more preferred means more dividend obligations and a higher rate deepens the cash drain, worsening the very problem it is trying to solve.
Each financing lever, in other words, tightens one part of the structure while loosening another.
That leaves the option the entire model was built to avoid: selling Bitcoin.
Selling would refill the reserve quickly and could even let Strategy buy back STRC below par, retiring a $100 claim for around $80, which on a spreadsheet is rational.
But it is precisely the move that would confirm the market’s deepest fear, because the whole proposition of the company is that its Bitcoin stack is permanent, a leveraged bet that never sells.
Strategy has already cracked that door open.
Earlier in June it sold 32 Bitcoin, a trivial amount against its holdings, to help fund preferred distributions, in what was its first net Bitcoin disposal since 2022.
The sale was tiny, but its symbolism was enormous, because it showed the treasury could become a funding source for the structure built on top of it, which reframes every future shortfall.
If a small sale was acceptable once, a larger one is no longer unthinkable, and selling near current levels would also turn paper losses into realized ones.
Strategy appears to have absorbed the warnings to some degree, slowing its Bitcoin buying sharply and routing fresh stock-raise proceeds into its cash reserve instead of into more Bitcoin.
That is a sensible defensive move, but it is also an admission that the relentless accumulation defining the company has had to pause.
That is a meaningful change in posture for a firm whose identity is built on never stopping.
Is the model breaking? So is Saylor’s model actually breaking, or merely being tested?
The honest answer is that it depends almost entirely on one variable the company does not control: the BTC price the model depends on.
Both the bull and bear readings are internally coherent.
The case that it is not breaking rests on Saylor’s strongest point: there is no immediate crisis.
Strategy is not required to sell Bitcoin, faces no margin call, and holds Bitcoin worth far more than its debt, with a cash reserve it has just moved to strengthen.
STRC holders cannot redeem their shares against the treasury, which removes the run-on-the-bank dynamic that destroys leveraged structures.
The company has survived a deeper hole before. And a Bitcoin recovery would reset the entire picture, lifting the value of the holdings, reviving the premium in MSTR, restoring confidence in STRC, and turning today’s stress into a footnote.
On this reading, the model is bending under a cyclical downturn, exactly as it is designed to, and will spring back when Bitcoin does.
The case that it is breaking, or at least structurally strained, is subtler and does not depend on imminent collapse.
It is that the model’s efficiency, not its solvency, is the real casualty.
The flywheel worked because of the premium and the perpetual buying, and both have been compromised: the premium has inverted into a discount, making new stock issuance dilutive instead of accretive, and the buying has had to pause.
Meanwhile the cost of maintaining the structure keeps rising, with dividend obligations that have quadrupled and a coverage cushion that has thinned to little more than a year.
That means the company must now spend real resources just to hold the structure together until Bitcoin recovers.
This is why how treasury firms are valued matters. A Bitcoin treasury company can look simple when its stock trades above NAV; it looks very different when the premium becomes a discount.
The deeper worry is reflexive: the cleanest fix for the cash problem, selling Bitcoin, is also the action that would most damage the premium and the narrative that the stack is permanent.
That leaves the company caught between a cash squeeze and an identity it cannot abandon without undermining itself.
In this reading, the machine does not break in a single dramatic event. It grinds less efficiently, costs more to run, and depends ever more heavily on a Bitcoin recovery that may or may not come on the needed timeline.
The truest synthesis is that Strategy is not facing insolvency but is facing the first serious test of whether its financing model can function when its core assumptions, a rising Bitcoin and a premium stock, both fail at once.
The answer will be written by Bitcoin’s price over the coming months.
Until then, the model is neither clearly broken nor clearly fine, but visibly, and for the first time in years, under genuine strain.
Frequently asked questions How much is Strategy underwater on its Bitcoin? Strategy holds 847,363 Bitcoin, bought for roughly $64 billion at an average cost near $75,650 per coin. With Bitcoin trading below $60,000, that position is underwater by approximately $12 billion, meaning the coins are worth that much less than the company paid. Every Bitcoin purchased in 2024, 2025, and 2026 is now below its purchase price. Importantly, this is an unrealized loss: it does not force Strategy to sell, does not trigger a margin call, and would only become a realized loss if the company actually sold coins at current prices. A Bitcoin recovery would reduce or erase it.
What is STRC and why is it crashing? STRC is Strategy’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock, designed to trade near its $100 stated value, held there by a variable dividend mechanism, recently yielding around 11.5%. It crashed to a record low near $74, roughly a quarter below par, because confidence in the dividend behind it has weakened. As Strategy issued more STRC to fund Bitcoin buying, its annual dividend obligations quadrupled to about $1.2 billion while its cash reserves fell 38%, causing dividend coverage to collapse from over seven years to about 14 months. A preferred stock trading far below par signals the market demands much more yield before trusting the instrument.
Is Strategy going bankrupt or being forced to sell Bitcoin? Not imminently. Strategy holds Bitcoin worth far more than its debt, faces no margin call, is not required to sell, and recently moved to strengthen its cash reserve. Michael Saylor has said the company’s Bitcoin and cash exceed its debt by roughly $48 billion. STRC holders also cannot redeem their shares against the treasury, which removes the run-on-the-bank dynamic. The real pressure is not insolvency but the rising cost of maintaining the structure: funding growing dividends and rebuilding cash while its stock trades at a discount. Selling Bitcoin is one option the company has tested in tiny amounts, but it is not being forced into a large sale at this time.
What is the fraud investigation about? A plaintiff law firm announced a securities-fraud investigation into Strategy and Michael Saylor, examining whether the company may have issued materially misleading business information to investors, covering all five of its publicly traded securities. It is important to be precise: this is an investigation announcement, not a lawsuit. No class action has been filed, the allegations are unproven, and Strategy has not publicly responded. Announcements like this are common in volatile sectors and do not establish wrongdoing. However, it adds legal uncertainty and reputational pressure at a difficult moment, and it has been amplified by critics suggesting Saylor may have crossed marketing rules in how he promoted the preferred stock.
What does Michael Saylor say about all this? Saylor has been defiant, arguing the fears misunderstand the company’s position. His central points are that Strategy’s Bitcoin and cash exceed its debt by roughly $48 billion, that it has raised more than $60 billion since 2022 and built the largest corporate Bitcoin stockpile in the world, and that it survived a worse situation in the 2022 bear market. Back then, its debt briefly exceeded its Bitcoin and cash, but the company stayed focused and continued to execute. The implication is that the current stress is a familiar cyclical test instead of an existential threat. He has not directly addressed the fraud investigation or the analyst warnings, choosing instead to make the broad case for the company’s strength.
Is Saylor’s model actually breaking? It depends heavily on Bitcoin’s price, and both readings are coherent. The case that it is fine: there is no immediate crisis, no forced selling, Bitcoin worth far more than the debt, and a Bitcoin recovery would reset everything, so the model is bending under a downturn as designed. The case that it is strained: the model’s efficiency has been compromised because the stock premium that made buying accretive has become a discount, the buying has paused, and the cost of maintaining the structure keeps rising. The cleanest cash fix, selling Bitcoin, would also damage the permanent-stack narrative the company is built on. The honest verdict is that the model is not broken but is facing its first serious test of whether it works when both a rising Bitcoin and a premium stock fail at once.
This article is information, not investment advice. Financial figures, securities prices, the status of legal investigations, and company actions reflect reporting available as of June 28, 2026, and can change quickly. The securities-fraud investigation referenced is unproven and has not resulted in a filed lawsuit. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell MSTR, STRC, Bitcoin, or any security. Verify current details from primary sources and consider your own circumstances before making any decision.
Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl said that Strategy’s 50 basis point increase in the STRC dividend next week may not be enough to restore market confidence.
According to Pandl, such an increase would raise the company’s dividend obligations by approximately $100 million over the next two years. However, this step is not expected to significantly improve investor confidence.
Pandl stated that a more effective step to restore market confidence might be for Strategy to sell over $3 billion worth of Bitcoin. He noted that this sale would be enough to cover almost all of the cash liabilities the company will face over the next two years.
Pandl stated the following in his assessment:
“What I expect to happen for Strategy next week is a 50 basis point increase in the STRC dividend. That translates to approximately $100 million in additional dividend obligations over the next two years, and that probably won’t help market confidence. What I hope will happen is that the company sells over $3 billion worth of Bitcoin to cover almost all of its cash obligations over the next two years. That would likely restore market confidence.”
*This is not investment advice.
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Bitcoin slipped below the $60,000 area and continued defending the broader $59,000 to $60,000 support band. Bitcoin and Ethereum were both on track to finish Q2 in the red, creating pressure around quarterly market structure. Risk note: Do not call the move a confirmed bear market or use panic language around the support zone. For more details, visit the official Tradingview platform.
Bitcoin’s quarterly structure is weakening, but the immediate test is still the $59,000 to $60,000 zone Bitcoin Defends $59K Support as Q2 Closes With Rare Back-to-Back Loss is a timely crypto-market story because it gives readers a clear signal to watch without leaning on hype or unsupported price targets.
The important point is not just the headline number or technical level. It is the way that signal fits into the wider market: liquidity is thinner, Bitcoin direction is fragile, and traders are paying closer attention to flows, wallet activity, derivatives positioning, and official ecosystem updates.
What the verified setup shows Bitcoin slipped below the $60,000 area and continued defending the broader $59,000 to $60,000 support band. Bitcoin and Ethereum were both on track to finish Q2 in the red, creating pressure around quarterly market structure.
Back-to-back quarterly weakness in the first half of the year is uncommon enough to make the close worth watching.
That makes this a useful setup for readers who want to understand what is actually changing beneath the surface. It also helps separate measurable market data from the more speculative narratives that often appear during volatile weekends.
Why this matters for the market For Bitcoin quarterly loss, the signal matters because it offers a specific lens for the current market rather than a vague bullish or bearish call. In a weak or uncertain tape, traders tend to focus on the data points that can be checked directly: flows, wallet routes, support zones, funding, moving averages, official technical updates, or security disclosures.
This is especially important in the current environment. Bitcoin has been trading near important support, altcoins remain sensitive to broader risk appetite, and institutional or on-chain activity can quickly become part of the market narrative.
What traders should avoid assuming Do not call the move a confirmed bear market or use panic language around the support zone.
That caution matters because many of these signals can be misread. ETF outflows do not automatically mean permanent institutional retreat. Wallet transfers do not automatically mean selling. Technical support does not guarantee a bounce. Developer updates do not immediately translate into price action.
What to verify next The next validation path is: TradingView price charts plus Coinbase and Binance historical market data. This is the key step before treating the setup as anything more than a developing market or ecosystem signal.
Weekend rates can move sharply, so spot and quarterly figures should be checked live before upload.
This report is based on publicly available market data.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
Bitcoin’s most polarizing governance battle of 2026 is heading toward a quiet defeat. BIP-110, the proposal designed to restrict non-financial data on Bitcoin’s blockchain, has mustered roughly 0.31% of total hashrate support as of late June, with major mining pools conspicuously absent from the signaling effort.
The mandatory signaling phase is projected to begin around block height 961,632, somewhere between August 7 and August 15. The proposal needs 55% of miners to signal support for an early lock-in. It currently has 0.31%.
What BIP-110 actually tries to do In technical terms, the proposal caps transaction output data at 34 bytes and restricts OP_RETURN usage to 83 bytes. It would make it significantly harder to embed images, tokens, and other non-monetary content directly on Bitcoin’s base layer.
The proposal was originally introduced as BIP-444 back in October 2025 before being formally reassigned. Its author, Dathon Ohm, designed it as a temporary measure, a one-year consensus soft fork that would essentially give Bitcoin a trial period of tighter restrictions on data usage.
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Proponents argue that protocols like Ordinals and Runes have driven up transaction fees and placed unnecessary strain on node operators.
The numbers tell a bleak story Node support for BIP-110 sat at 2-3% in early 2026. That translated to roughly 583 out of approximately 24,481 nodes in January, with much of that support attributed to Bitcoin Knots software rather than deliberate ideological alignment.
Miner support is even thinner. The 0.31% hashrate figure translates to about 5 EH/s out of a total network hashrate of approximately 940 EH/s.
The first block signaling support for BIP-110 was mined by Ocean pool back in March 2026. Since then, no major mining pool has followed suit. Ocean, run by Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dashjr, has long been an outlier in the mining world, known for filtering certain transaction types that larger pools process without hesitation.
Why the big pools aren’t biting Critics of the proposal have been vocal. Blockstream CEO Adam Back and well-known Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp have both raised concerns about the risks involved. Their objections center on several points: the potential for a chain split if enforcement is inconsistent, reputational damage to Bitcoin from a contentious fork attempt, and the fundamental enforcement problem that only nodes running the new rules would actually uphold the restrictions.
Even if BIP-110 somehow activated, its restrictions would only apply to nodes that chose to enforce them. Miners and nodes that didn’t upgrade would continue processing the transactions BIP-110 seeks to block.
What this means for investors The near-certain failure of BIP-110 carries implications beyond the technical debate. For market participants, the immediate takeaway is that Ordinals, Runes, and similar protocols aren’t going anywhere. The economic incentives for miners to process these transactions remain intact, and the political will to restrict them doesn’t exist at the hashrate level where it matters.
Bitcoin’s upgrade mechanism requires overwhelming consensus. BIP-110’s failure to gain traction shows that even proposals with passionate grassroots support can stall completely if they don’t align with miner economics.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
