Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Leading cryptocurrencies reversed course on Tuesday amid negative sentiment in the market, but analysts believe the sell-off may have carved out a bottom.

Crypto Market RetreatsBitcoin pulled back to about $58,000 after Monday’s surge, while 24‑hour trading volume ticked up slightly. Ethereum pulled back from $1,600 and traded around the $1,500 level, while XRP and Dogecoin slipped modestly.

Nearly $250 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, with $183 million in bullish long positions alone erased, according to Coinglass data.

Bitcoin’s open interest rose 1.52% over the last 24 hours. An increase in open interest when the price falls indicates a short buildup, meaning sellers are entering the market to create new short positions.

"Extreme Fear" sentiment persisted in the market, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

Top Gainers (24 Hours) 

The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.07 trillion, broadly unchanged over the last 24 hours.

Dow Hits New Closing HighDow finished June 2.43% higher, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slid 1.32% and 3.22%, respectively.

Bitcoin Inside ‘High-Coviction Accumulation Zone’Ali Martinez, a widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader, noted that Bitcoin’s supply in loss has exceeded its supply in profit for the first time in this cycle.

Martinez said that this on-chain crossover has historically aligned with “major” cycle bottoms in 2011, 2014, 2018, and 2020.

“While historical data shows that the duration of these crossover periods can vary from a few weeks to several months before a primary trend reversal begins, it confirms that BTC is currently trading inside a high-conviction accumulation zone,” the analyst added.

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant highlighted a negative Coinbase Premium Index for Ethereum, suggesting high selling pressure from U.S. institutional investors. At the same time, funding rates on Binance have turned negative, which suggests leveraged traders are leaning bearish.

“The combination of deeply negative funding rates and a discount on Coinbase often characterizes a ‘Wall of Worry,'” the analytics firm said. “Historically, when speculative sentiment is this depressed while organic supply is being absorbed by staking, it creates a fragile environment for short-sellers.”

Photo: KateStock / Shutterstock

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After failing to maintain the recovery rally that peaked close to the 200-day moving average, Bitcoin is still under a lot of pressure. The longer-term bearish structure was validated by the $82,000 rejection, which also set off another wave of selling that drove Bitcoin back toward $58,000. 

The situation is still weak technically. Bitcoin is currently trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, all of which are still declining. This alignment usually indicates that sellers are in control over a number of time periods. While RSI is close to oversold territory and has not produced a strong bullish divergence, volume has not shown any indications of significant accumulation. 

The most important level to keep an eye on is the most recent low of $57,000 to $58,000. A more severe decline would be possible if it were lost. For the time being, any upward movement appears to be more of a relief bounce than the beginning of a long-term trend reversal.

HOT Stories

Stellar is avoiding a bear trendXLM is still one of the few large-cap tokens that is holding close to its moving averages in spite of the overall weakness of the market. The token recently saw a huge surge that drove it above the 200-day moving average and generated a significant amount of trading activity. 

The price is currently testing the cluster of the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages around the $0.18–$0.19 zone after sharply retracing from local highs near $0.30. Bulls and bears now use this region as a crucial battlefield. The fact that XLM's longer-term structure has not entirely collapsed is a plus. In contrast to Bitcoin, Stellar still has an opportunity to reach a higher low if buyers hold onto the present support levels. 

XLM/USDT Chart by TradingViewThere is less speculative excess in the market as a result of the RSI cooling from overbought conditions. If XLM is able to hold above $0.18, it may be able to stabilize and try to push higher again. However, a breakdown below that range would probably invalidate a large portion of the recent breakout and return the asset to a wider downtrend.

The asset broke out of a descending triangle pattern after consolidating above important support levels for several months. It is currently trading close to $1.03, which is dangerously close to the psychological $1 mark. The breakdown in and of itself is significant. XRP consistently printed lower highs while defending the $1.30 support zone throughout March, April, and May. 

Sellers eventually outnumbered buyers, which caused a sharp decline below support. The move accelerated the downward momentum and validated the bearish structure. 

XRP remains alertedXRP is still in a precarious position technically. The price is moving below the downward-sloping 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. 

This alignment typically indicates a long-term downward trend as opposed to a brief correction. Buyers have not regained control, as evidenced by the rejection of each recovery attempt over the past few weeks near moving-average resistance. Currently, $1.00 is the most crucial level. In addition to being a significant psychological barrier, it is also one of the final significant support areas before XRP moves into a region where past purchasing activity becomes significantly less frequent. 

XRP/USDT Chart by TradingViewAnother wave of liquidations and panic selling would probably result from a breakdown below $1, particularly among traders who have been anticipating a recovery from current levels. Although RSI is getting close to oversold territory, a convincing reversal signal has not yet been generated. 

This does not necessarily mean that a bottom has formed, even though it implies that downside momentum may be slowing. The road ahead is simple but challenging for bulls. To refute the current bearish trend, XRP must eventually return above the broken $1.30 support area and at least recover the 50-day moving average around $1.13. 

Until then, rallies are probably not going to be seen as the beginning of a recovery, but rather as opportunities for sellers. The medium-term course of XRP may be decided in the next few days. A relief bounce is possible if $1 holds. If it does not hold, the market might experience another painful decline.

Hyperliquid makes hasteDespite the recent correction, Hyperliquid is still one of the market's best-performing assets. In contrast to the majority of cryptocurrencies, HYPE is still firmly above its major moving averages and maintains a more expansive bullish structure. HYPE entered a phase of increased volatility after rising from below $30 earlier this year to highs above $75. The asset went through a number of significant corrections, but buyers kept intervening before the trend could fully collapse. 

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After yet another rejection from local highs, HYPE is currently trading close to $65. The pullback may seem alarming, but the chart remains positive. The 100-day and 200-day averages are still much lower, indicating the strength of the underlying trend, while the 50-day moving average at $64 continues to serve as immediate support. Several tests have already been conducted on the rising trendline that sustained the advance throughout the spring. 

During times of volatility, the price briefly fell below it, but buyers soon regained control, averting a more significant structural breakdown. There is a significant decrease in momentum. After being in overbought conditions for weeks, the RSI has declined toward neutral territory. Since it eliminates excessive speculation without ruining the uptrend, this reset is actually beneficial to the market. 

The 50-day moving average is the crucial level to monitor. Another attempt to reach the $70-$75 range is still possible if HYPE can stay above it. The likelihood of a deeper retracement toward the 100-day moving average around $53 would rise in the event of a break below that level. HYPE is one of the few significant assets that is currently exhibiting a bullish market structure. The current correction does not appear to be the start of a full trend reversal, but rather consolidation following an explosive rally.

Top 5 Altcoins for July 2026 as Bitcoin Drops 20%

Bitcoin enters the third quarter still in a bear market, with technical analysis suggesting one more leg lower remains likely before a bounce develops in July, followed by a sharp bearish August and a possible final low forming around October.

Where Bitcoin Stands Right Now

The current structure remains clearly bearish according to Elliott Wave analysis tracking the decline since June. Bitcoin is consolidating between micro support and resistance, with the first resistance zone sitting between $60,812 and $62,589. 

A break above that level would be the first signal that the anticipated Q3 bounce has begun. Until then, one more low remains the more likely scenario, potentially testing the $55,500 to $56,000 support cluster that aligns with a larger Fibonacci support zone on higher timeframes.

The broader market regime indicators reinforce the bearish read. A 365-day regime divider confirms Bitcoin remains in bear market conditions, and price is currently trading below an entire bearish-aligned moving average ribbon spanning $64,000 to $81,000, closely matching the $67,000 to $77,000 resistance zone that has rejected multiple rally attempts this cycle.

Why July Could Bring Relief

Despite the bearish backdrop, seasonality offers a genuine reason for optimism in the near term. Historical data shows July has consistently been one of the stronger months for Bitcoin even during bear market years, often producing a corrective three-wave rally before renewed selling resumes. August, by contrast, has historically been one of the most bearish months of the year.

A bullish divergence is also forming on the RSI, with price posting a lower high while the RSI itself prints a higher low, a pattern that frequently precedes short-term rallies back toward resistance. Combined with the seasonal pattern, this supports the case for a July bounce, whether as a smaller wave two within the current decline or a larger corrective structure.

The Q3 Targets

If the current Elliott Wave structure plays out, Bitcoin’s first major downside target sits near $39,000, based on a 100% Fibonacci extension from the recent wave structure. The path there could be direct or could involve an extended bounce first. On the upside, any July rally is expected to face resistance between $67,000 and $77,000, with the 200-day moving average near $75,000 reinforcing that zone.

Time cycle analysis points toward a potential final low forming around October, give or take 30 days, consistent with how previous Bitcoin bear markets have typically lasted between 360 and 380 days. This would place the end of the current bear market squarely within Q4 2026, setting up the next bull market phase.

Story Ends Here

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By the end of 2025, the power capacity tied to artificial intelligence data centers worldwide had reached about 29.6 gigawatts (GW), enough to run all of New York state at peak demand, according to Stanford University’s annual report on the AI industry. 

The report, released in April, suggests that compute itself is abundant and getting cheaper. Permitted, grid-connected, ready-to-draw electricity is in high demand, but the sources to power it are much harder to come by. One industry has spent the past decade quietly building exactly that infrastructure for a different reason: Bitcoin mining.

AI data center power capacity reached about 29.6 GW by the end of 2025, comparable to New York state at peak demand. Source: Stanford University

Chips get more efficient, but total demand risesThe economics of chips are moving in the opposite direction. Stanford said the cost of GPU computation has dropped more than 99% since 2006, while leading chips now perform far more work per watt than they did a decade ago. But efficiency gains have not reduced total demand. They are instead poured back into larger models rather than banked as savings, keeping the pressure on the power grid.

The cost of GPU computation has fallen more than 99% since 2006, even as total power draw climbed. Source: Stanford University

Stanford estimates that the most demanding training runs, including for systems such as Llama 4 Behemoth, have pulled upward of 100 megawatts (MW), comparable to a small power plant. Capacity dedicated to AI has risen some 200-fold in three years, from under a gigawatt in 2022, and data center electricity use is projected to keep rising through 2030.

The squeeze is geographic as much as numerical. The United States hosts 5,427 data centers, more than 10 times any other country, according to Stanford.

Chips can be ordered and delivered in months, but energizing a site, with its substation, interconnection approval and cooling, takes years.

Counted across full systems rather than the accelerators alone, AI’s cumulative power demand through 2024 reached an estimated 9.4 GW, close to the national electricity use of Switzerland or Austria and about half the estimated draw of Bitcoin mining.

Estimated all-in AI power demand (through 2024) sits near half of Bitcoin mining's. Source: de Vries-Gao, Stanford University

The asset was never the hardwareBut Bitcoin miners cannot just hand their machines to an AI lab. Mining ASICs (the chips that solve Bitcoin calculations) do one narrow job and are useless for training or inference. What does transfer is everything around the chips, such as the energized sites, power contracts, grid hookups and the shells to cool dense racks. 

A Bitcon miner that already has a grid connection has infrastructure ready to fill the gaps for the AI developers, and renting that capacity beats starting over. Miners also tend to sit where AI wants to be anyway, in cheap-power US states like Texas and the Gulf Coast.

Mining economics is itself a numbers-crunching game. JPMorgan recently estimated Bitcoin’s all-in production cost at about $78,000 per coin, well above BTC’s market price of around $53,400 at the time of writing, down by more than 34% year-to-date, according to CoinGecko.

Bitcoin is down by around 34% in 2026. Source: CoinGecko

Cointelegraph previously reported that hashprice had fallen below breakeven for many miners, putting about 20% of the industry in unprofitable territory.

Some major contracts between miners and AI infrastructure operators followed. In November 2025, Iren signed a five-year GPU cloud deal with Microsoft worth about $9.7 billion, served from a 750-megawatt campus in Childress, Texas. In December, Bitcoin miner Hut 8 signed a 15-year, $7 billion lease with Fluidstack for 245 megawatts at its River Bend site in Louisiana, with the payments backstopped by Google.

TeraWulf reported $12.8 billion in contracted high-performance computing (HPC) revenue and now earns more from leasing than mining. Core Scientific has expanded its CoreWeave agreement to $10.2 billion over 12-year terms. Across the listed miner sector, CoinShares counts more than $70 billion in announced AI and HPC contracts, but much of the value is years out. Hut 8's River Bend site, for example, is not due to start commissioning until the second quarter of 2027.

Investors have nonetheless rewarded the shift. Hut 8 stock jumped about 20% in premarket trading the day its lease was announced, Reuters reported, and across the sector, valuations are increasingly tied to compute pipelines rather than the Bitcoin price alone. Indeed, CoinShares said the miners with HPC contracts were trading at 12.3 times the value of their 12-month revenue vs 5.9 times for pure play miners. CoinShares' projects listed miners could derive as much as 70% of revenue from AI by the end of 2026, up from roughly 30% in Q1.

Why it is not a free pivotHowever, the conversion is far from cheap, and is not just a matter of plug-and-play. CoinShares estimates that mining infrastructure costs about $700,000 to $1 million per MW, while AI-grade, liquid-cooled infrastructure can cost $8 million to $15 million per MW. Hyperscalers also demand power density, redundancy and uptime guarantees that many mining facilities were never designed to provide.

Miners are covering that gap with debt and new capital raises. Iren had already disclosed about $3.75 billion in convertible note debt at the end of March, then raised another $3 billion through a new convertible note sale in May.

The sector is also leaning on a small group of hyperscalers and AI infrastructure buyers. If demand cools, customers renegotiate or projects slip, miners that have torn out ASICs may have fewer options to fall back on.

Whether that shift away from BTC mining pays off remains an open question. Signing multibillion-dollar AI contracts is one thing, but delivering the earnings investors expect is another.

For now, the market is placing a premium on miners making the transformation rather than those that simply produce new BTC. If AI demand continues to outpace electricity supply, those assets could prove more valuable than the machines they were originally built to support. If not, some of today’s biggest AI plans could prove to be costly bets, rather than real second acts for former Bitcoin miners.

Magazine: Bitcoin miners are pivoting to AI, so why is the hashrate near ATHs?

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin white paper on October 31, 2008, and remained active in development until December 2010 before disappearing without revealing a true identity. A 2026 New York Times investigation by John Carreyrou identified Blockstream CEO Adam Back as the strongest candidate, using stylometric analysis of cryptography mailing list archives. Back denied being Nakamoto, calling the evidence coincidental, while Blockstream stated the story was built on circumstantial interpretation rather than definitive cryptographic proof. A UK court ruled in May 2024 that Craig Wright forged evidence supporting his claim to be Satoshi, and Wright received a suspended one-year prison sentence in December. Satoshi’s untouched Bitcoin wallet holds an estimated 1.1 million BTC, making the pseudonymous creator one of the wealthiest individuals in the world if still alive. John Carreyrou, the investigative journalist who exposed Theranos, published a 12,000-word investigation in The New York Times in April 2026, naming British cryptographer Adam Back as the most likely person behind the Satoshi Nakamoto pseudonym, according to CNBC’s reporting on the investigation. 

This article traces the verified timeline of Satoshi Nakamoto’s activity, examines the major candidates who have been proposed or investigated, and assesses what is actually known versus what remains speculation.

What Satoshi Nakamoto Created and When The name Satoshi Nakamoto first appeared on October 31, 2008, attached to a white paper titled “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System” published on a cryptography mailing list. The Bitcoin network launched on January 3, 2009, when Nakamoto mined the genesis block. 

Nakamoto remained active in development, forum discussions, and email correspondence until December 2010, when public communications ceased, according to the Wikipedia timeline, and the last known communication was in April 2011.

Nakamoto used a Japanese name and listed Japan as a place of residence, but analysis of posting timestamps and language patterns suggested a British English speaker operating in a time zone consistent with the United Kingdom. 

The white paper cited Adam Back’s Hashcash system, Wei Dai’s b-money, and other precursors to digital currency, placing Nakamoto squarely within the cypherpunk movement of the 1990s and 2000s. The wallet associated with Nakamoto’s early mining activity holds an estimated 1.1 million BTC, untouched since 2010. 

At current prices, that holding would rank among the largest personal fortunes in the world. The wallet’s inactivity is itself evidence: either the private keys have been lost, the holder is deceased, or the holder has chosen not to move the funds for strategic or ideological reasons.

The 2026 New York Times Investigation: Adam Back Carreyrou and co-writer Dylan Freedman built their case around several threads. They collected email archives from three cryptography mailing lists active between 1992 and 2008 and fed them into an AI-powered stylometric analysis tool, as reported by TechCrunch. 

The analysis compared writing patterns, including compound noun hyphenation and common grammatical quirks like mixing up “its” and “it’s.” Back emerged as the closest match. The circumstantial evidence extended beyond writing style. Back invented Hashcash, a proof-of-work system cited in the Bitcoin white paper. 

He was active in cryptography circles that discussed digital cash throughout the 1990s but went relatively quiet during Nakamoto’s most active period.  He reappeared publicly after Nakamoto’s disappearance.

Carreyrou also noted inconsistencies in Back’s recollections of early Bitcoin discussions during an in-person interview at a Bitcoin conference in El Salvador. Back posted on X (formerly Twitter) on April 8, 2026: “I’m not Satoshi, but I was early in laser focus on the positive societal implications of cryptography.” 

Blockstream, where Back serves as CEO, issued a statement calling the investigation “built on circumstantial interpretation of select details and speculation, not definitive cryptographic proof.” Fortune’s analysis of the investigation noted that Nick Szabo, whose initials invert to S.N., ticks many of the same boxes without requiring elaborate explanations, according to Fortune’s coverage.

Other Major Candidates: From Szabo to Wright Nick Szabo designed “bit gold,” a direct precursor to Bitcoin, and published extensively on digital currency before Nakamoto’s white paper appeared. Stylometric analysis by blogger Skye Grey in December 2013 linked Szabo’s writing patterns to Nakamoto’s. Szabo has denied being Satoshi. 

A separate 2026 documentary titled “Finding Satoshi” proposed that Nakamoto was a partnership between cypherpunk Len Sassaman and Hal Finney, according to Wikipedia’s Satoshi Nakamoto entry.

Hal Finney, a cryptographer and early Bitcoin contributor who received the first Bitcoin transaction from Nakamoto, was proposed as a candidate before his death from ALS in 2014. Finney denied the claim during his lifetime. 

Dorian Nakamoto, a Japanese-American physicist in California whose birth name is Satoshi Nakamoto, was identified by Newsweek in 2014 in a widely criticized article. He denied any involvement with Bitcoin.

Craig Wright, an Australian computer scientist, claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto beginning in 2015. A UK High Court ruled in May 2024 that Wright’s submitted evidence included forgeries and that he had “lied to the court extensively and repeatedly.”

Wright received a suspended one-year prison sentence in December 2024 for contempt of court related to a separate $911 billion lawsuit against Block, Inc., according to Wikipedia’s legal summary.

Regulatory Implications Satoshi’s identity carries legal weight beyond curiosity. If identified, the individual would face tax obligations on an estimated 1.1 million BTC. Jurisdictional authorities, including the IRS and HMRC, would have grounds to pursue historical filings. 

The SEC’s classification of Bitcoin as a commodity rather than a security could face challenges if the creator were shown to retain controlling influence. The Craig Wright litigation demonstrated that false identity claims can trigger criminal proceedings.

What’s Next? The mystery may be unsolvable by design. Cryptographic proof, meaning a signed message from Satoshi’s known private keys, remains the only definitive method of identification.

The Bitcoin protocol operates independently of its creator’s identity, and the community has largely accepted that the network’s decentralization makes the question academically interesting but functionally irrelevant.

Future investigations will likely continue to produce circumstantial cases without the signed proof that would settle the question.

FAQs Who is Satoshi Nakamoto?
Satoshi Nakamoto is the pseudonym used by the person or group who created Bitcoin, published the white paper in October 2008, and vanished by 2011.

How much Bitcoin does Satoshi own?
Analysis of early mining patterns estimates Satoshi’s wallet holds approximately 1.1 million BTC, untouched since 2010, making it one of the largest crypto holdings.

Did the New York Times identify Satoshi?
A 2026 investigation by John Carreyrou named Adam Back as the strongest candidate based on stylometric analysis, but Back denied it, and no proof exists.

Is Craig Wright Satoshi Nakamoto?
No. A UK High Court ruled in May 2024 that Wright forged evidence and lied extensively, and he received a suspended prison sentence in December 2024.

Why does Satoshi’s identity matter?
Identifying Satoshi could trigger tax obligations on over 1 million BTC, influence regulatory classification of Bitcoin, and affect market confidence in its decentralization.

What is Hashcash and how does it relate?
Adam Back invented Hashcash, a proof-of-work system directly cited in the Bitcoin white paper, which became the foundation for Bitcoin’s mining consensus mechanism.

Could Satoshi be a group of people?
Some researchers believe Satoshi was a small collective acting under one pseudonym, which would explain the breadth of expertise across cryptography, economics, and coding.

References CNBC Report on NYT Investigation: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/latest-investigation-of-bitcoin-founder-ties-identity-to-blockstream-ceo-adam-back.html TechCrunch Coverage of Adam Back Denial: https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/08/british-cryptographer-adam-back-denies-nyt-report-that-he-is-bitcoin-creator-satoshi-nakamoto/ Fortune Analysis of Investigation: https://fortune.com/2026/04/08/who-is-the-real-inventor-of-bitcoin-satoshi-nakamoto/ Wikipedia Satoshi Nakamoto Entry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto

Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy and the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, just did something it swore it would never do. It approved selling Bitcoin.

The board authorized a new “Digital Credit Capital Framework” on June 29 that allows the company to sell up to $1.25 billion worth of BTC. The goal is to boost its USD reserves from $2.55 billion to roughly $3.8 billion, giving it enough runway to cover preferred dividends and interest obligations for about 25.9 months.

The numbers behind the pivot Strategy currently holds 847,363 BTC. The authorized sales represent approximately 1.5% of that stash, which sounds modest until you remember that 1.5% equals $1.25 billion.

The company’s annual dividend and interest obligations total approximately $1.76 billion. Under its existing $2.55 billion reserves, that translates to roughly 17.4 months of coverage.

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Strategy already started selling before the formal announcement. In late May 2026, the company offloaded 32 BTC for $2.5 million, averaging about $77,135 per coin.

Beyond shoring up reserves, the framework also enables up to $2 billion in buybacks of preferred securities and common stock, with roughly $1 billion targeted specifically at preferred securities.

Why the ‘never sell’ era is over Executive Chairman Michael Saylor built his entire post-2020 brand on one message: buy Bitcoin, hold Bitcoin, never sell Bitcoin. The company’s stock became a leveraged proxy for BTC exposure, attracting investors who wanted amplified upside without directly holding crypto.

With $1.76 billion in annual obligations and reserves providing less than 18 months of coverage, the board faced a straightforward choice: sell some Bitcoin now on their own terms, or potentially be forced to sell later under worse conditions.

What this means for investors The initial market response was positive, with MSTR shares moving up in pre-market trading.

Moving from 17.4 months to 25.9 months of runway is meaningful, but it still depends on Strategy not needing to increase its obligations further. If Bitcoin drops significantly and the company needs to post additional collateral or faces margin pressures on its leveraged positions, that 25.9-month cushion could shrink faster than expected.

The $2 billion buyback authorization includes roughly $1 billion targeted at preferred securities. Buying back preferred securities at a discount could be accretive for common shareholders, but funding buybacks with Bitcoin sales means the company is trading BTC for reduced share count.

For crypto markets specifically, the 1.5% being sold is unlikely to move the needle in terms of direct selling pressure.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell toward $58,000 around Tuesday’s Wall Street open as the clock ticked down to a brutal quarterly close.

Key points:

US stocks' Q2 gains leave Bitcoin far behind as bulls nurse losses of nearly 20%.Bitcoin faces renewed pressure from the risk of Japanese government moves to support the yen.BTC price weakness is forcing capitulation by top buyers, says analysis.Bitcoin "about to get spicy" amid 40-year dollar/yen highData from TradingView showed downside gaining the upper hand as volatility increased into the US session.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

With $60,000 increasingly looking lost as support, commentators saw the tussle between bulls and bears continuing on short time frames.

“Open Interest pumping, noticed some large longs entering on this dip, it's about to get spicy,” commentator Exitpump wrote in fresh analysis on X.

BTC/USD order-book data. Source: Exitpump/X

Trader Killa eyed a repeat of weekly price patterns, in which Mondays formed the swing low or high of the following week.

“$BTC Keeps consolidating in this price range. Marginally higher lows and equal highs,” trader Daan Crypto Trades continued. 

“Look out for whichever direction breaks first, I think a quick move should follow after that seeing how compressed this is becoming.”BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Bitcoin thus reinforced its divergence from US stocks with total Q2 losses nearing 20%.

By contrast, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted the S&P 500 was up 14% over the quarter, marking its best performance since 2020.

“This would mark the 2nd-largest quarterly gain since the 2008 Financial Crisis recovery,” it added in an X post alongside data from Bloomberg. 

“At the same time, the Nasdaq 100 is up +25%, on track for its strongest quarter in 5 years. This would also mark the Nasdaq 100's 2nd-best quarterly performance in 25 years.”US stocks performance comparison. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Kobeissi described an “accelerating” global stocks rally, with the US providing the impetus. 

In a potential headwind for crypto, the US dollar hit new multidecade highs against the Japanese yen, increasing the odds of government intervention.

USD/JPY reached 162.50 on the day, its highest since the mid 1980s.

USD/JPY 12-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Whether it’s Japan, India, South Korea or MSTR, It’s the same problem,” analyst and YouTube personality George Gammon summarized to X followers on the day. 

“You’ve got dollar liabilities and not enough dollars. So you sell assets to get dollars putting downward pressure on the asset. Yen, Rupees, Won, or Bitcoin.”Bitcoin hodlers "appear to be cutting losses"In new research, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant warned of a fresh round of Bitcoin investor “capitulation.”

At sub-$70,000 levels, contributor Crypto Sunmoon warned that those who had bought BTC around all-time highs were now selling at a loss.

“Since the break below $70K, exchange inflows have risen sharply, with the majority of this volume consisting of coins held for roughly six to twelve months, coins most likely accumulated near the cycle highs,” they wrote in a Quicktake blog post. 

“This pattern is consistent with capitulation among cycle-top buyers, as holders appear to be cutting losses rather than continuing to hold through the drawdown.”Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant data showed onchain movements increasingly involving coins that last moved around all-time highs, along with increasing inflows to exchanges.

“For some, this will be a painful stretch. That said, capitulation events of this kind among cycle-top investors have historically coincided with long-term bottom formation, a pattern observed in both the 2018 and 2022 cycles,” Crypto Sunmoon added.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Most market predictions hedge. Hayes' did not. Asked by TheStreet Roundtable to name a call the market is getting completely wrong, the BitMEX co-founder did not flinch: 

"The AI bubble will pop in or around 2028," Arthur said.

"The Fed and other central banks will print money to save the banking system from the bad AI debt they underwrote. This will not solve the financial crisis."

It's a striking call from someone whose macro predictions have, for better or worse, shaped a significant portion of crypto discourse over the past several years. Hayes isn't simply betting against AI valuations. He is just making a specific claim about how the unwind plays out, who pays for it, and where the money goes next.

Why Bitcoin wins from the falloutHayes' thesis hinges on a distinction between liquidity and innovation and it's the line that does the most work in his entire argument.

"Central banks cannot print their way out of Moore's law, and this liquidity will flow to Bitcoin," Hayes told the outlet. 

In other words, printing money can paper over a banking crisis, but it cannot manufacture the computing breakthroughs the AI trade was priced on.

He closed the point with a forecast that left little room for ambiguity:

 "Bitcoin will perform better than ever as trillions of dollars of liquidity flow into the hardest money ever created."

A debt spiral already in motionAccording to Hayes, the mechanism behind his prediction is already underway, not some distant hypothetical.

"The banking system and central banks will create credit to deliver to defense spending programs and AI CAPEX expenditures," he said. "Once the AI bubble pops, the authorities will attempt to print their way out of a financial crisis."

That response, he argued, is where the real story begins.

This is not a standalone prediction. Earlier in the same conversation, Hayes said that the Federal Reserve is already trapped by its own balance sheet.

"The Fed is already fiscally dominated, which is why I do not believe the newly appointed chairperson Kevin Warsh will be able to shrink the Fed's balance sheet," he added.

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"Nor will he be able to meaningfully hike rates when the U.S. Treasury must roll over trillions of dollars a year of short-term treasury bills."

Hayes also pointed to a quieter structural shift already underway, one he believes is being underpriced relative to the AI story. 

"Stablecoins are popular and will disintermediate domestic banking systems in emerging markets," he said, arguing that dollar-backed stablecoins are already moving volumes that rival major payment networks, without the banking license that would normally be required to do so.

In his view, traditional banking survives where currencies still hold real purchasing power, largely in advanced Western economies, but loses ground everywhere else. 

That dynamic, he suggested, is a separate but related symptom of the same monetary trust problem driving his Bitcoin thesis.

Popular on TheStreet Roundtable:Analyst sends blunt message on Elon Musk's Bitcoin tiesEx-Trump advisor unveils new Bitcoin price targetAnalyst issues bold call on Cathie Wood's favorite crypto stockWhat could prove him wrongEven his own conviction has a limit. 

Asked what would invalidate his thesis entirely, Hayes was specific: 

"The thesis could be invalidated if politicians around the world could implement austerity and get re-elected in democracies or receive implicit support of the elites in autocracies."

That, he implied, is a low-probability outcome, which is precisely why his 2028 call stands as confidently as it does.

Hayes pushed back when asked if younger Americans, priced out of homes and savings, are turning to Bitcoin by default.

"These young Americans turned to pseudo-gambling," he said, pointing to sports betting, zero-day options, and meme coins as proof. 

With wages stagnant and inflation eating into what little they can save, he argued, most are chasing quick wins, not allocating deliberately into Bitcoin.

Block Inc., the company formerly known as Square, has officially entered the Bitcoin mining hardware race. The company launched its Proto Rig modular mining system on August 14, 2025, at Core Scientific’s facility in Dalton, Georgia, with CEO Jack Dorsey in attendance.

The Proto Rig is compact. Its chassis measures 39 cm x 29 cm x 50 cm, roughly the size of a small desktop computer tower. Each unit can accommodate up to nine hash boards and three power units, pushing hash rates up to 810 TH. In select configurations, the Proto Rig can hit 14.1 J/TH. The system supports advanced liquid-cooling options and is built around a modular design philosophy: components are swappable, error signaling is built to be clear and actionable, and operators can identify a problem, pull the faulty component, and replace it without sending the whole rig overseas.

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Alongside the hardware, Block introduced Proto Fleet, an open-source software package designed to manage mining operations. The software includes secure boot capabilities and AI-assisted interfaces for diagnostics. Stratum V2 support comes included out of the box, giving individual miners more control over which transactions they include in blocks rather than leaving that decision entirely to mining pool operators.

Core Scientific is the initial shipping target for the Proto Rig. Core Scientific operates some of the largest Bitcoin mining facilities in North America and recently emerged from bankruptcy with renewed focus on both mining and AI hosting infrastructure.

The Bitcoin mining hardware market has a concentration problem. Bitmain has historically controlled over 80% of the market for ASIC miners. Block’s bet is that a modular, repairable, open-source alternative can chip away at that concentration, decentralizing both hashrate distribution and the hardware supply chain itself.

The 14.1 J/TH efficiency figure, if it holds up at scale in real-world deployments, positions the Proto Rig competitively against current-generation hardware. Investors should watch Core Scientific’s deployment timeline closely, as real-world performance under sustained load will determine whether this represents a genuine market disruption.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Appearing on the New Era Finance Podcast at a conference in Prague, Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy and a well-known Bitcoin investor, clarified the claims circulating in the cryptocurrency markets recently that “MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin.” Saylor argued that the panic created by the rumors on social media (X) was unfounded, and detailed the rational and strategic reasons behind the sale.

Contrary to market rumors, Saylor claimed the company had not abandoned its Bitcoin strategy, drawing attention to the scale of the sale. “We bought 175,000 Bitcoin right in the middle of the bear market this year. In contrast, we only sold 32 Bitcoin,” Saylor stated, adding that this amount represented a negligible and insignificant two ten-thousandths (0.02%) of their total assets.

So, if the amount was so small, why was it sold? Saylor reminded everyone that his company operates as a massive “treasury company,” obligated to both pay dividends to its lending investors and protect its equity investors. Saylor summarized their strategy with these words: “We have to defend our lending and equity investors. This may sometimes require us to sell 1 Bitcoin to buy 20 Bitcoin. This is actually more tax-efficient and a completely rational step economically.”

He underlined that if they lose the trust of credit markets, they may find themselves in a situation where they cannot buy any Bitcoin at all.

Saylor stated that these small sales transactions on the institutional side should not set a bad example for individual investors, and added that he had not touched his own investments: “I personally bought a lot of Bitcoin and haven’t sold a single Satoshi yet.”

According to Saylor, the main reason Bitcoin is lagging behind current stock markets (especially the record-breaking S&P 500) is the “AI” craze. He stated that there is currently a huge “AI Black Hole” in the market, and this enormous gravitational force is pulling in all credit and equity capital (to companies like OpenAI, SpaceX, and Google).

Saylor stated that while billions of dollars are flowing into these companies, $10-20 billion is also leaving the crypto ecosystem and shifting to these popular stocks. However, he added that he believes capital will return to Bitcoin, which has become more valuable, once the AI craze subsides.

Finally, Saylor reiterated his confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term projection, seeing 2026 as a turning point: “2026 is a great year because it’s the year Bitcoin emerges as the agreed-upon global digital capital, and nobody disputes that anymore.”

*This is not investment advice.

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On-chain payments continue to accelerate

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With the clock continuing to tick down on the possibility of a successful legislative session for the CLARITY Act, bitcoin seems to be firmly entrenched in another summer doldrums, with the price bouncing along at approximately $60,000 while struggling to find a catalyst toward higher levels. Even with these lower levels dominating crypto conversations and policy debates the institutional pivot toward blockchain, on-chain payments, and tokenized transactions is accelerating in the background. Such adoption is important for a number of reasons, but two in particular should stand out to investors and policymakers alike.

Firstly, and at a more generalized level, the utilization of on-chain payments and tokenized assets by large household financial names is continuing to bring transparency and important debates around compliance and security to the crypto sector. Specifically, the majority of debate and discourse around the CLARITY Act centers around not only the ability of stablecoin issues to provide yield and yield adjacent products, but how these institutions should be regulated. As frustrating as this may be for some proponents, these are critically important decisions if mass market adoption remains the end goal.

Secondly, and arguably equally as important for non-crypto-natives, are the improvements being made to the traceability and transparency linked to on-chain transactions. Traceability and the ability to reverse and/or augments payments and transactions made in error are attributes of modern payments that consumers and institutions alike expect, and making this feature more accessible for crypto transactions is an integral step in achieving wider market share.

Let’s take a look at some of the headlines driving these themes and narratives forward.

Blockchain Traceability Is Becoming a Core Market IssueFor years, blockchain’s transparency was treated as a yes or no topic with transactions either being completely visible on-chain or behind the walled garden of a permissioned network. Chainalysis’ proposed formal framework for defining wallet clusters moves the conversation beyond that oversimplification. The key issue is moving from whether on-chain data can be analyzed in real time across multiple chains and environments to how financial analysts and institutions can leverage this available data.

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By separating address grouping, attribution, and operator, the proposal addresses a weakness that has long existed in blockchain analytics; confidence can be mistaken for proof especially given the lack of authoritative auditing standards. This potential confidence-as-assurance issue has increased as digital assets become more integrated with payments, trading, tax reporting, and anti-money-laundering programs. Crypto markets will not gain institutional trust simply because transactions are recorded on an immutable ledger. Trust depends on whether conclusions drawn from that ledger are reproducible, explainable, and defensible to both crypto-native investors and more recent members of the crypto space. For investors and policymakers, standardized blockchain analytics is rapidly becoming as important as standardized financial reporting.

TradFi Support For Crypto Legislation Comes With A WarningJPMorgan’s support for a federal digital asset framework should be viewed as a meaningful signal, but not as an endorsement of regulation at any cost, especially given the leadership position of JPM both in TradFi circles and the on-chain payment space. The bank’s position is straightforward; innovation should be encouraged, but the economic function (otherwise known as tokenomics) of an asset should determine its oversight. In other words, a tokenized security still functions economically as a security, and should be treated as such.

Building on that thread, another example would be that a platform performing exchange-like functions should face exchange-like responsibilities, and that a stablecoin offering yield-like incentives without bank-level safeguards risks becoming shadow banking under a different label. This approach may frustrate industry participants seeking broad exemptions or changes, but it reflects a reality that policymakers cannot ignore. The next stage of crypto adoption will depend less on ideas related to decentralization and more on whether the market can demonstrate consumer protection, liquidity, transparency, and accountability for how errors are addressed. Regulatory clarity is valuable, but clarity that codifies loopholes will not create durable market confidence, and will simply relocate risk.

On-Chain Deposit Growth Shows Where Institutional Adoption Is HeadingWhile public debate and conversation remains focused on cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, the more consequential blockchain story may be unfolding inside regulated financial institutions. J.P. Morgan’s expansion of Kinexys blockchain deposit accounts across eight currencies illustrates how major banks are approaching tokenized money; not as a replacement for banking infrastructure, but rather as an upgrade to existing products and services.

Institutional clients gain access to around-the-clock settlement, programmable treasury capabilities, and potentially more efficient cross-border liquidity while remaining inside a regulated banking environment. This is a different model from relying on privately issued stablecoins or navigating fragmented public blockchain networks. It also reinforces a broader market trend related to the fact that tokenization is increasingly about modernizing deposits, payments, collateral, and settlement rather than simply creating new speculative assets. The competitive question for banks is evolving from earlier conversations linked to whether or not blockchain will affect payments.

The emerging question for institutions is solidifying around just how institutions can implement an on-chain solutions quickly enough to attract mass market users while preserving compliance, control, and client trust.

Bitcoin [BTC] was down 3.4% in the past 24 hours, with $104.38 million in liquidations. Of these, $91.66 million worth of positions were long and were forced to close as BTC dipped deeper below $60k.

Source: CryptoRover on X In a post on X, influencer CryptoRover shared a piece of technical analysis. The price chart outlined the descending triangle pattern that Bitcoin made in 2021-2022, and the RSI also formed a similar structure.

The same pattern was repeating in 2025-2026. It is possible that, like the previous time, the market bottom would need some time to form before it breaks out past the triangle pattern.

If the previous cycle repeats itself, a bullish turnaround can commence in Q4 2026. It should be remembered that, as things stand, whale accumulation was underway but not rapid enough to warrant a market turnaround.

Will it be this simple for Bitcoin investors? Source: Axel Adler Jr. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. observed that the Bitcoin long-term holder MVRV has compressed to 1.24. The metric is the ratio of the market value of long-term holders’ coins, compared to their average purchase price.

The current reading of 1.24 is the lowest in three years and shows the market is approaching historical cycle lows. The MVRV needs to fall into the “Very Low” green capitulation zone to give a bottom confirmation.

Additionally, the long-term holder’s average cost basis is at $48.4k. A price drop below this level will put this cohort underwater, on average, and signal capitulation from even the most hardcore holders.

Bitcoin is on track with the 4-year cycle Source: Benjamin Cohen on X Founder and CEO of Into The CryptoVerse, Benjamin Cohen, used the 200-week moving average to highlight that the 4-year cycle was right on track.

June of 2022 and 2026 saw this moving average breached to the downside, setting up a remarkable similarity across cycles.

Source: Joao Wedson on X The rising long/short ratio implied more traders were going long in the derivatives market than were positioned short. “This excessive Long exposure is one of the main reasons behind the recent selloffs”, wrote CEO of Alphractal Joao Wedson.

It implied that, like the wave of long liquidations in the first week of June, another long squeeze could commence in the coming days and weeks.

Final Summary The Bitcoin price action has breached the 200-week moving average and could go down further in the coming months. The market was approaching historical bottom conditions, compared to previous cycles, but was not quite there yet.

The ETH/BTC ratio prices Ethereum in Bitcoin instead of dollars, stripping out the market-wide move so you can see which of the two is actually winning. Here is what the ratio measures, how to read it, what drives it, and why it has fallen to multi-year lows.

Summary

The ETH/BTC ratio is the price of one ether expressed in bitcoin, a single number that shows whether Ethereum is outperforming or underperforming Bitcoin regardless of what the dollar price of either is doing. A rising ratio means ether is gaining on bitcoin, often a sign of risk appetite and a healthier environment for altcoins; a falling ratio means bitcoin is winning, usually a sign of caution and bitcoin dominance. As of mid-2026, the ratio sits near multi-year lows around 0.026, reflecting Ethereum’s deep underperformance against Bitcoin, down sharply from levels near 0.08 in 2021 and 0.15 in 2017. The ratio is driven by the tug-of-war between Ethereum-specific forces (ETF flows, staking, layer-2 activity, supply dynamics, competition from other chains) and Bitcoin-specific forces (halving cycles, ETF and treasury demand). It is a relative-strength gauge and a regime signal, not a price target, and it can stay depressed or elevated for years, so it should inform context rather than dictate trades. Table of Contents

What the ratio actually measuresWhy traders watch itHow to read a rising or falling ratioA worked exampleWhere the ratio has been, and where it is nowWhat drives the ratio up and downHow to use the ratio without overreading itFrequently Asked Questions The ETH/BTC ratio is the price of one ether (ETH) measured in bitcoin (BTC) rather than in dollars, and it is one of the most useful single numbers in crypto for understanding which of the two largest assets is actually winning. When you look at Ethereum’s price in dollars, you are seeing two things mixed together: how Ethereum is doing, and how the entire crypto market is doing, because almost everything in crypto moves loosely with Bitcoin and with the broad risk environment.

The ETH/BTC ratio removes the second factor. By pricing Ethereum directly in Bitcoin, it cancels out the market-wide move that both assets share and isolates Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin alone. If both assets rise 20% in dollars, the ratio does not move, because neither outperformed the other. If Ethereum rises while Bitcoin is flat, the ratio rises, and you learn something the dollar chart obscured: capital is favoring Ethereum over Bitcoin right now.

That makes the ratio a lens, not just a number, and learning to read it changes how you see the market. This guide explains what the ETH/BTC ratio is and how it is calculated, why traders watch it, how to interpret a rising or falling ratio, what the ratio has done historically and where it sits now, the forces on each side that push it up or down, a worked example you can follow step by step, and how to use it sensibly without overreading it.

The aim is to give you a durable mental model rather than a snapshot, because the specific level will change, but the way the ratio works will not. None of this is trading advice; the ratio is an analytical tool, and like any tool, it can mislead if used in isolation. Used well, though, it is one of the clearest windows into the single most important relationship in the asset class, the one between its two dominant coins.

What the ratio actually measures Start with the mechanics, because they are simple and the simplicity is the point. The ETH/BTC ratio is calculated by dividing the price of ether by the price of bitcoin, using the same currency for both, so the units cancel and you are left with a pure ratio. If ether trades at $1,550 and bitcoin trades at $60,000, the ratio is 1,550 divided by 60,000, which is about 0.0258, usually written as 0.026. That number tells you that one ether is currently worth about 2.6% of one bitcoin. You can read it directly: at a ratio of 0.026, it takes roughly 38 ether to equal one bitcoin in value.

Most charting platforms quote the pair as ETHBTC or ETH/BTC, and many crypto exchanges let you trade the pair directly, buying ether with bitcoin or the reverse, which is part of why the ratio is so closely watched, it is a live, tradable market, not just a derived statistic.

What the ratio measures, conceptually, is relative strength. It answers a question the dollar price cannot: between the two largest assets in crypto, which is the market choosing right now? Because Bitcoin and Ethereum share most of the same macro drivers, interest rates, risk appetite, regulatory news, dollar liquidity, comparing them to each other holds those shared factors roughly constant and exposes the difference that is specific to each asset. A dollar chart of Ethereum during a broad sell-off shows Ethereum falling, but it cannot tell you whether Ethereum fell more or less than Bitcoin.

The ratio can. If Ethereum fell harder than Bitcoin, the ratio dropped even as both went down, revealing that within the decline, capital preferred the relative safety of Bitcoin. That is the core value of the metric: it separates Ethereum’s own story from the market’s story, and in doing so it often reveals the direction of capital rotation that the dollar price hides.

Why traders watch it The ratio matters because it functions as a regime indicator for the broader market, not just for Ethereum. In crypto, there is a long-observed pattern in which capital rotates in a rough sequence: money flows into Bitcoin first during the early, cautious phase of a rally, then rotates into Ethereum as confidence grows, and then spreads out into smaller altcoins as risk appetite peaks.

Because Ethereum sits in the middle of that sequence, the largest and most established asset after Bitcoin, the ETH/BTC ratio often acts as a barometer for where the market is in that cycle. A rising ratio, with Ethereum gaining on Bitcoin, frequently signals that risk appetite is building and that the environment is turning favorable for altcoins broadly, since Ethereum tends to lead the alt market. A falling ratio, with Bitcoin winning, usually signals the opposite: caution, a flight toward the relative safety of Bitcoin, and a harder environment for smaller tokens.

This is why traders treat the ratio as a piece of market-structure information instead of just a fact about two coins. When the ratio is trending up, many interpret it as confirmation of an “altcoin season” or “ETH season,” a period when capital is willing to move out the risk curve and non-Bitcoin assets outperform. When it is trending down, the read is “Bitcoin season” or rising “Bitcoin dominance,” a period when Bitcoin absorbs the market’s attention and capital while alts bleed against it. Portfolio decisions follow from this framing: a trader who believes the ratio is turning up might tilt toward Ethereum and altcoins, while one who sees it falling might rotate toward Bitcoin or cash.

The ratio also serves as a sanity check on narratives. If commentators are loudly predicting an Ethereum breakout but the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling, the market is voting against the narrative in the most direct way available, by pricing Ethereum lower against Bitcoin quarter after quarter. Watching the ratio keeps a trader honest about what is actually happening versus what is being talked about.

How to read a rising or falling ratio Reading the ratio is mostly about direction and context instead of any single absolute level. A rising ETH/BTC ratio means ether is appreciating relative to bitcoin, whether because ether is rising faster than bitcoin, falling more slowly, or rising while bitcoin falls. In all of those cases the message is the same: on a relative basis, the market is favoring Ethereum.

Sustained increases in the ratio tend to coincide with periods of broad risk appetite, strong Ethereum-specific catalysts, and outperformance across the altcoin complex, since Ethereum often pulls the alts along with it. A falling ratio carries the opposite message: bitcoin is winning the relative contest, the market is leaning toward caution and Bitcoin dominance, and altcoins are generally struggling against bitcoin even if they are flat or rising in dollar terms.

The crucial discipline is to read the ratio in context instead of as a standalone buy or sell signal. The same ratio level can mean very different things depending on the trend and the backdrop. A ratio of 0.026 reached on the way down, after months of Ethereum underperformance, signals weakness and momentum against Ethereum. The same 0.026 reached on the way up, after a period of Ethereum gaining, would signal the opposite, recovering relative strength.

Direction and trend matter more than the absolute figure. It also helps to watch the ratio across multiple timeframes: a short-term bounce in the ratio within a long-term downtrend is a different and weaker signal than a multi-month trend change. And because the ratio is relative, it is silent about absolute price. The ratio can rise while both assets fall in dollars, if Ethereum falls less, which is relative outperformance during an absolute loss, useful to know but not the same as a gain. Reading the ratio well means always holding two questions at once: which asset is winning the relative contest, and what is the absolute market doing underneath that contest.

A worked example Make it concrete with numbers you can follow. Suppose ether is trading at $1,550 and bitcoin at $60,000. Divide 1,550 by 60,000 and you get 0.0258, so the ETH/BTC ratio is about 0.026, and one ether is worth roughly 2.6% of one bitcoin, or equivalently it takes about 38 ether to equal one bitcoin. Now run three scenarios from that starting point to see how the ratio responds to relative moves.

In the first scenario, both assets rise 25% in dollars: ether to about $1,938 and bitcoin to $75,000. The ratio is 1,938 divided by 75,000, which is still about 0.0258. Despite a large dollar gain in both, the ratio did not move, because neither outperformed the other, exactly the information the dollar chart would have hidden.

In the second scenario, ether outperforms: ether doubles to $3,100 while bitcoin stays at $60,000. The ratio becomes 3,100 divided by 60,000, or about 0.052, a doubling of the ratio. This is the signature of Ethereum outperformance, and a trader watching only the ratio would see it climb from 0.026 to 0.052 and read a strong shift of capital toward Ethereum, the kind of move associated with an ETH-led alt rally. In the third scenario, the market falls but Ethereum falls harder: bitcoin drops to $48,000 (down 20%) while ether drops to $1,085 (down 30%).

The ratio is 1,085 divided by 48,000, or about 0.0226, a decline from 0.026. Here both assets lost money in dollars, but the ratio fell, telling you that within the sell-off, capital preferred bitcoin and Ethereum bore more of the damage. These three cases show the ratio’s whole purpose in miniature: it ignores the shared move and reports only the relative winner, which is the piece of information that dollar prices alone cannot give you.

Where the ratio has been, and where it is now History gives the current level its meaning, and the history of ETH/BTC is a story of a long round trip. In Ethereum’s earlier years the ratio climbed dramatically as Ethereum established itself as the clear number-two asset and the home of smart contracts, decentralized finance, and much of crypto’s developer activity. It reached its highest levels around mid-2017, near 0.15, when one ether was worth about 15% of a bitcoin, a peak of Ethereum’s relative strength driven by the initial-coin-offering boom that ran on Ethereum.

The ratio then fell sharply, recovered into the 2021 cycle to peak around 0.08 as decentralized finance and non-fungible tokens drove enormous activity on Ethereum, and has since entered a prolonged decline. As of mid-2026, the ratio sits near multi-year lows around 0.026, with ether near $1,550 against bitcoin near $60,000, a level that reflects a sustained stretch of Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin.

The reasons for the long decline are worth understanding because they explain why the ratio is where it is instead of simply that it is low. Several forces have weighed on Ethereum’s relative strength. Bitcoin has captured an enormous wave of institutional demand through spot ETFs and corporate-treasury adoption, a clean, simple “digital gold” narrative that has pulled capital toward Bitcoin specifically. Ethereum, meanwhile, has faced intensifying competition from faster, cheaper chains, with much of the speculative and developer energy that once flowed to Ethereum moving to rivals, which has diluted the “Ethereum is the only smart-contract platform that matters” thesis that powered its earlier outperformance.

Ethereum’s own narrative has also been harder to summarize than Bitcoin’s, shifting across staking, scaling through layer-2 networks, and supply dynamics in ways that are powerful but complex, and complexity is a disadvantage in a market that rewards simple stories. The result is a ratio that has spent a long time grinding lower, which is the context any reader should hold when they see the current figure: it is not a momentary dip but the late stage of a multi-year trend, which is exactly why it is so closely watched for signs of a turn.

What drives the ratio up and down To anticipate the ratio instead of just observe it, you have to understand the forces on each side, because the ratio is a tug-of-war between Ethereum-specific and Bitcoin-specific drivers. On the Ethereum side, the factors that tend to push the ratio up include strong inflows into Ethereum ETFs, which signal institutional demand specifically for ether; growth in staking, which locks up supply and can tighten the available float; rising activity on Ethereum and its layer-2 networks, which supports the case that the network is being used; and periods when Ethereum’s supply dynamics turn deflationary, reducing net issuance. Broadly, anything that strengthens Ethereum’s relative narrative or tightens its supply relative to Bitcoin tends to lift the ratio. When these forces are strong and Bitcoin lacks an equally strong catalyst, capital rotates toward Ethereum and the ratio climbs.

On the Bitcoin side, the factors that push the ratio down include the four-year halving cycle and its associated demand narratives, large institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, corporate-treasury accumulation of Bitcoin, and any environment in which the market wants the relative safety and simplicity of Bitcoin over the complexity of Ethereum and altcoins. Risk-off conditions generally favor Bitcoin and pull the ratio down, because in a cautious market capital concentrates in the most established, most liquid, most narratively simple asset, which is Bitcoin.

The overall risk environment is the backdrop to both sides: in risk-on periods, capital is willing to move out the curve toward Ethereum and the ratio tends to rise, while in risk-off periods it retreats toward Bitcoin and the ratio tends to fall. This framework explains why the ratio has been weak: Bitcoin has enjoyed powerful, simple, institution-friendly catalysts in ETFs and treasuries, while Ethereum’s catalysts have been real but more diffuse, and much of the market has been in a cautious, Bitcoin-favoring posture. A durable turn in the ratio would require Ethereum-specific demand to outweigh Bitcoin’s, which is exactly what traders watch the ratio to detect.

How to use the ratio without overreading it For all its usefulness, the ratio is easy to misuse, and using it well means respecting its limits. The most important discipline is to remember that the ratio is a relative-strength gauge, not a price target or a guaranteed mean-reverting signal. A common error is to look at a depressed ratio and assume it must bounce back toward old levels, treating the multi-year average as a magnet.

There is no rule that forces the ratio to revert. It can stay depressed for years if Ethereum continues to underperform, just as it can stay elevated during a strong Ethereum cycle, and betting on reversion simply because the ratio looks low has cost many traders dearly through long stretches of continued underperformance. The ratio describes the current balance of relative strength; it does not promise that the balance will swing back on any particular schedule.

The second discipline is to never trade the ratio in isolation. It is one input among many, most powerful when combined with an understanding of the absolute market environment, the specific catalysts on each side, and your own time horizon. The ratio tells you which asset is winning the relative contest, but it says nothing about whether the whole market is heading up or down in dollars, which is what actually determines whether you make or lose money in absolute terms.

A rising ratio in a collapsing market still means losses; a falling ratio in a soaring market can still mean gains. The ratio is best used to inform allocation tilts and to read market structure, for example to judge whether the environment favors Ethereum and alts or Bitcoin, instead of as a standalone entry or exit trigger. Treat it as a compass that shows direction of relative capital flow, not a clock that tells you when to act, and it becomes one of the more reliable instruments in a crypto analyst’s toolkit. Misread as a precise timing signal or a guaranteed reversion bet, it becomes a trap. The metric is honest; the overreading is the danger.

Frequently Asked Questions What is a good ETH/BTC ratio? There is no single “good” level, because the ratio is a relative measure whose meaning depends on trend and context instead of any fixed number. Historically the ratio has ranged from highs near 0.15 in 2017 and 0.08 in 2021 down to multi-year lows around 0.026 in 2026. A higher ratio reflects stronger Ethereum performance against Bitcoin, and a lower one reflects Bitcoin dominance, but neither is inherently “good” or “bad,” it depends on which asset you favor and where you are in the cycle. What matters more than the absolute level is the direction: a rising ratio signals Ethereum gaining, a falling ratio signals Bitcoin winning. Read the trend and the backdrop, not a target number.

How do you calculate the ETH/BTC ratio? Divide the price of ether by the price of bitcoin, using the same currency for both so the units cancel. For example, if ether is $1,550 and bitcoin is $60,000, the ratio is 1,550 divided by 60,000, which equals about 0.0258, usually written as 0.026. That means one ether is worth roughly 2.6% of one bitcoin, or that it takes about 38 ether to equal one bitcoin. Most charting platforms display the pair directly as ETHBTC or ETH/BTC, so you rarely need to calculate it by hand, and many exchanges let you trade the pair directly, which is why it behaves as a live market instead of just a derived statistic.

What does a rising ETH/BTC ratio mean? A rising ratio means ether is appreciating relative to bitcoin, whether because ether is rising faster, falling more slowly, or rising while bitcoin is flat or falling. The shared message is that the market is favoring Ethereum over Bitcoin on a relative basis. Sustained increases often coincide with broad risk appetite and outperformance across altcoins, since Ethereum tends to lead the alt market, which is why a rising ratio is frequently read as a signal of “ETH season” or a building altcoin rally. The key caveat is that a rising ratio describes relative strength only; it says nothing about whether the overall market is going up or down in dollar terms.

Why has the ETH/BTC ratio been falling? The long decline reflects a tug-of-war that Bitcoin has been winning. Bitcoin has captured a powerful wave of institutional demand through spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, supported by a simple “digital gold” narrative. Ethereum has faced intensifying competition from faster, cheaper chains that drew away speculative and developer activity, while its own narrative, spanning staking, layer-2 scaling, and supply dynamics, has been harder to summarize than Bitcoin’s. A generally cautious, risk-off market has also favored Bitcoin’s relative safety. The combination pushed the ratio to multi-year lows near 0.026 by mid-2026. A durable turn would require Ethereum-specific demand to outweigh Bitcoin’s catalysts.

Can the ETH/BTC ratio predict altcoin season? It is one of the more useful indicators for it, but not a precise predictor. Because Ethereum sits between Bitcoin and smaller altcoins in the typical rotation of capital, the ETH/BTC ratio often acts as a barometer: a rising ratio suggests capital is moving out the risk curve toward Ethereum and, by extension, toward altcoins, while a falling ratio suggests retreat toward Bitcoin. Many traders treat a sustained uptrend in the ratio as confirmation that an altcoin season is building. However, it is a relative-strength gauge, not a guarantee, and it should be combined with other signals and an understanding of the absolute market, instead of treated as a standalone forecast of when alts will run.

Should I trade based on the ETH/BTC ratio? The ratio is best used as an analytical and allocation tool instead of a standalone trading trigger, and this is not trading advice. It is most valuable for understanding market structure, judging whether the environment favors Ethereum and altcoins or Bitcoin, and informing how you tilt a portfolio, instead of as a precise entry or exit signal. Two cautions matter most: do not assume a low ratio must revert to old highs, because it can stay depressed for years, and never read it in isolation, because it says nothing about whether the overall market is rising or falling in dollars. A rising ratio in a falling market still means losses. Use it as a compass for relative strength, combined with other analyses.

This article is educational information, not financial or investment advice. Price levels and ratio figures reflect approximate values as of June 2026 and change continuously. Cryptocurrency is volatile, and you can lose money. Do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decision.

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Two days before the end of June, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF complex hemorrhaged $231 million, while spot Ether funds shed another $30 million, per data tracked by SoSoValue. The combined $261 million departure on June 29 did not hit all products equally. According to the original report, Ark Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB drew $49.97 million in net inflows on the same day—the largest single inflow among Bitcoin funds. BlackRock’s ETHA pulled in $5.87 million, bucking the Ether outflow trend.

The divergence between overall outflows and individual fund inflows is the kind of microstructure that institutional desks watch closely. It suggests that while the broader cohort of ETF holders may have been reducing exposure—perhaps due to end-of-quarter rebalancing, profit-taking after a strong Q2, or caution ahead of U.S. regulatory developments—certain large allocators were still accumulating. The timing is notable. A landmark crypto regulatory bill faces a cliffhanger Senate vote, with banking interests pushing for last-minute changes, as covered in BlockchainReporter’s recent coverage.

Meanwhile, institutional appetite for digital asset infrastructure remains robust. Just this week, tokenization hit a milestone with on-chain RWAs crossing $20 billion, as detailed in a separate roundup. That persistent demand stands in contrast to the day’s ETF outflows, hinting that capital is being deployed selectively rather than leaving the space altogether.

Quarter-End Flows and the ARKB Outlier Late June often produces choppy flow data as fund managers square positions. The $49.97 million inflow into ARKB on a down day stood out. It could reflect a single large mandate or a reallocation within a multi-fund strategy. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood has long been a vocal Bitcoin bull, and the product she co-sponsors with 21Shares continues to attract attention when others lag.

Ether ETFs have struggled to match Bitcoin’s institutional pull since their launch, but BlackRock’s ETHA continues to attract steady, if modest, capital. The $5.87 million inflow was modest but stood against the $30 million total bleed. Some market participants may be rotating into ETHA for its perceived safety as a BlackRock product, or accumulating ahead of potential staking yield developments if regulatory clarity improves. For now, that remains a matter of speculation.

What the Flows Don’t Tell Us Single-day flow data is noisy. Outflows on one day do not signal a trend reversal. Bitcoin ETFs have seen record net inflows in previous months, and Ether products have slowly built assets. The $261 million combined outflow is a fraction of total assets under management in spot crypto ETFs, which remain above $50 billion.

What is more telling is where the inflows landed. ARKB and ETHA represent products from two of the largest asset managers in the world. Their ability to attract capital even on a down day suggests brand and distribution still matter enormously in the ETF race. Without disaggregated data, it is impossible to know whether the flows reflect genuine long-only demand or tactical trading by authorized participants. But that ambiguity itself characterizes the market’s current state: participants are positioning, not fleeing.

The Regulatory Shadow The crypto ETF market operates in constant dialogue with Washington. The bipartisan bill moving through the Senate—and the last-minute banking push to reshape it—has added a layer of uncertainty that cannot be ignored. While no direct link can be drawn between a single day’s outflows and legislative wrangling, the overhang is real. Asset managers and institutional investors often adopt a risk-off posture when the regulatory path is unclear.

For now, the ETF market is delivering mixed signals. Large outflows at the top line, selective inflows underneath, and an industry watching Capitol Hill. That is not a narrative of retreat, but of recalibration.

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Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.

Ethereum price remained near $1,560 as bearish pressure returned across the crypto market. ETH stayed below $1,600 after Bitcoin-led selling weakened broader investor sentiment. Robert Kiyosaki’s optimistic sentiment was emphasized by his forecast that Ethereum could climb to $95,000 by mid-2027, suggesting a potential long-term bull market scenario.

The overall crypto market decreased 1.75% to $2.03 trillion within a span of 24 hours. Bitcoin price declined 2.74% mainly due to the continuing outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Other major altcoins were mostly weak, with XRP, Dogecoin and Cardano falling.

Robert Kiyosaki Predicts Ethereum Price Could Reach $95,000 by Mid-2027 Ethereum price returned to the spotlight after Robert Kiyosaki’s bold $95,000 forecast resurfaced online. The “Rich Dad Poor Dad” author first shared the prediction in March, but it has gained fresh attention across crypto social media.

Kiyosaki believes that after the next major global financial crisis, Ethereum will hit the price of $95,000 within one year. His comment was accompanied by the warning that the world is on the verge of the “biggest bubble burst in history”.

🚨 BREAKING:

RICH DAD POOR DAD ROBERT KIYOSAKI JUST SAID LIVE:

“ONE YEAR AFTER “THE BIGGEST BUBBLE IN HISTORY” BURSTS, WE COULD SEE:

GOLD: $35,000/OZ
SILVER: $200/OZ$BTC: $750,000$ETH: $95,000

BUT HERE’S THE PROBLEM.

THAT WILL REQUIRE ~$285T IN COMBINED MARKET CAP.

MORE… pic.twitter.com/E8KG7cgkpB

— Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) June 30, 2026

The projection has split investors as ETH plummets under pressure in the market. Some traders view the forecast as a very long-term objective. Some see it as an extension of Kiyosaki’s stance on hard assets and crypto.

Kiyosaki also forecasted that Bitcoin will reach $750,000 following the crash in the same forecast. He also predicted that gold could hit the price of $35,000 per ounce, and silver could touch $200.

With the reemerged Ethereum prediction, the debate has been energized again concerning the future of ETH’s position in a possible financial rebalancing.

Ethereum Price Near Key Zone as Bitmine, SharpLink Add ETH Ethereum gained renewed attention as Bitmine expanded its ETH position with another 27,084 tokens last week. The acquisition now puts Bitmine’s ETH stockpile at nearly $9 billion, or 5.7 million tokens. 

The company currently holds approximately 4.7% of the total supply of Ethereum, and continues to stake. SharpLink also picked up 10,000 ETH, adding an average of $1,611, to bring its total to 886,725 ETH. 

Bitmine has bought 27,084 $ETH ($42.95M), now holds 5,700,040 $ETH worth $9.03B, currently facing a loss of $10.25M.https://t.co/MslqH6khBT pic.twitter.com/bXfcJKtSX8

— Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens) June 29, 2026

The company repurchased 2.13 million shares and raised $75 million last week. Crypto analyst Ted said ETH has returned to a key demand zone. He said the $1,500 would help fuel a relief rally next month.

Will ETH Price Bounce or Fall Below Key Support? As of the writing, the ETH price trades at $1,562 on 4-hour chart. Ethereum is still trading below $1,600 and bulls are holding the $1,500 support area. 

A break above $1,600 will clear the way for the next break at $1,700. Detailed ETH price analysis can then head for $1,760 and $1,850 if the buying pressure is seen to improve.

Source: ETH/USDT 4-hour chart: Tradingview The downside risk, however, remains in place while the price of ETH remains under $1,600. A break under $1,500 could expose $1,450 and then $1,400.

Bitcoin on Tuesday dropped below $59,000 amid sustained ETF selling and lingering extreme fear sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

Notable Statistics:

Coinglass data shows 82,520 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for $269.92 million.        SoSoValue data shows net outflows of $231.1 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Monday. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $30.04 million. In the past 24 hours, top gainers include MemeCore, Lighter and Pyth Network. Notable Developments:

Trader Notes:

Trader Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin appears to be setting up for a mid-summer relief rally after plunging 21% this month. He added that sharp monthly selloffs have historically been followed by short-term rebounds.

However, the trader cautioned that any gains in July could be erased in August, mirroring Bitcoin’s price action during the 2022 bear market.

Political economist Seth said Bitcoin’s drop to around $58,000 has already triggered a wave of long liquidations, but leveraged traders are quickly re-entering, adding roughly $1.16 billion in long liquidation exposure near $57,800.

He argued that if those new bullish positions are flushed out, market makers could then target the much larger $4.14 billion cluster of short liquidations around the $62,000 level.

Industry expert Follis noted Bitcoin bulls have successfully defended the $59,000 support level 10 times during June despite repeated selling attempts, underscoring strong buying interest at that price.

However, he warned that if the support finally breaks and buyers step aside, Bitcoin could quickly fall another 3% to 4% as downside momentum accelerates.

Image: Shutterstock

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Bitcoin, which started June above $70,000, fell to $58,000 during the month. While factors such as ongoing spot ETF outflows, a more hawkish Fed, and continuing US-Iran tensions were cited as reasons for the decline, Gabor Gurbacs, an advisor at VanEck and Tether, offered a different perspective.

Gabor Gurbacs, strategic advisor to asset management company VanEck and stablecoin issuer Tether, claimed that Bitcoin failed to reach a new all-time high because of extremely irresponsible people.

Gabor Gurbacs, in a post from his X account, argued that the market is being diluted by those who prioritize copying existing products and reusing old narratives instead of building lasting infrastructure and belief systems.

Gurbacs argued that highly unserious individuals have hijacked a large part of the Bitcoin discourse.

He criticized these individuals for copying and selling substandard products and stale narratives instead of focusing on building long-term beliefs, infrastructure, and distribution networks.

Gurbacs stated that this is one of the main reasons why Bitcoin is currently unable to surpass its all-time high (ATH).

According to the expert, although Bitcoin experienced gains in the last two years and reached an all-time high of $126,000, it traded below its peak of approximately $69,000 in November 2021 for much of the past two years.

Gurbacs argues that this is not just a macroeconomic problem, but also a reflection of structural problems in the sector.

At this point, he emphasizes that the fundamental structure of the market lost its seriousness with the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) boom of 2017. Gurbacs notes that the crypto community before 2017 was sharper and acted with clear principles and a mission, adding that almost a decade has passed since the market changed.

The celebrity concluded by saying that if he had one wish, he would wish the Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization boom had happened before the 2017 ICO boom disrupted the market.

*This is not investment advice.

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The crypto market ahead of EU MiCA’s July 1 deadline remains under pressure, with total value down 0.69% to $2.05 trillion. Traders are watching BTC, ETH, XRP, and BNB Prices as Europe prepares for stricter crypto enforcement.

EU MiCA Deadline Raises Pressure on Crypto Firms The Markets in Crypto Assets (MCA) regulation is at the final stage of enforcement tomorrow. The rules stipulate that exchanges will be required to cease operations throughout the European Union if those exchanges are not approved.

MiCA provides a common ground for crypto trading, custody, and market behaviour. It’s also regarded as the initial wide crypto rulebook of the globe.

The deadline for crypto firms to be approved by MiCA has been reached and only 244 of them have obtained approval so far. Europe previously had more than 3,000 registered crypto companies.

🚨 #Crypto Firms Turn to Dubai as EU Grants Only 244 MiCA Licenses

With just 244 #MiCA licenses issued out of nearly 3,000 applicants, crypto firms are increasingly turning to Dubai as the UAE emerges as a key hub for digital asset businesses.

Meanwhile, @binance , @bitget,… pic.twitter.com/5BrPkAG0j6

— CoinGape (@CoinGapeMedia) June 30, 2026

This will cause a disruption in service for many operators, and possibly even result in operators having to suspend or withdraw from the region. The change may impact user access and Europe’s liquidity in the future.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao said the company’s Greece license application failed due to political interference. However, analysts say that euro trading only accounts for a small part of Binance’s spot volume.

The regulatory change is also driving some of the founders to the UAE. European crypto companies are increasingly interested in Dubai’s faster licensing procedures.

Bitcoin price Bitcoin price dropped 1.49% to $59,257 on Tuesday as traders awaited the due date for the EU MiCA. The pressure was largely attributed to the withdrawal of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. June was the month for more than $4.1 billion in outflows for these funds, which dampened investor enthusiasm among institutional buyers. 

Source: BTC/USDT chart Tradingview Bitcoin price now faces a decisive test around the $58,000 support zone. If bulls do a defence of that area, then the the Future Bitcoin outlook may trade sideways and regain strength. However, a break below $58,000 could open a move toward $56,000.

Ethereum (ETH) Ethereum price rebounded from $1,500 support level on Tuesday following its failure to hold above it yesterday. The token is recovering from the recent market correction in preparation for EU MiCA. 

$ETH is back into its high demand zone.

As long as the $1,500 level holds, Ethereum could have a relief rally next month. pic.twitter.com/aZAB5kt6Ez

— Ted (@TedPillows) June 30, 2026

The initial major selling resistance is around $1,600, where they may test out short-term demand. If the bounce off is stronger, it could propel Ethereum back up to $2,000 and then $2,010. If selling resumes, traders will watch the $1,500 level closely. A further decline may penetrate $1,385 that is still a medium-term support level.

XRP Price XRP price dropped by 0.80% to $1.04 as sentiment in the crypto market softened. The decline came as the Fear and Greed Index stayed at 17, signaling extreme fear. However, fresh inflows into spot ETFs helped support XRP prior to the EU’s MiCA deadline. 

Source: Sosovalue data XRP spot ETFs recorded $15.34 million in net inflows on June 29. Bitwise led the flow with $11.94-million, followed by Canary XRPC’s $3.40-million. Cumulative net inflows have now climbed to $1.485 billion. If the price of XRP continues to hold above $1.00, it might try to push towards $1.15. A close below $1.00 could raise the risk of further declines to $0.95.

Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Coin fell 0.92% to $549 amid broader market weakness. However, macro pressure brought by stronger U.S. dollar and geopolitical uncertainty, kept the buyers cautious. The $540-$550 range continues to be a crucial area of support in the lead up to EU MiCA enforcement. 

BNB price As long as BNB remains in this range, the token could continue to hold its ground. A failure to break above the range will bring this price to the forefront of consideration at $520.

Table of contents

Bitcoin is trading at $59,101 on June 30, 2026 — the final day of the worst month of the current correction cycle — as the Fear & Greed Index reads 15, a marginal recovery from yesterday’s absolute cycle low of 12. Total crypto market cap holds near $2.07 trillion. The defining story of the day is the sharp divergence within the top 10: Solana and Hyperliquid are posting strong weekly gains while Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, BNB, and Dogecoin all remain in negative territory for the week, with Dogecoin down a brutal 9.43%.

Key Takeaways Bitcoin at $59,101, down 0.26% on the day and 5.33% on the week, closing out June’s worst monthly performance of the cycle Fear & Greed Index at 15 — up slightly from yesterday’s cycle-low 12, but still firmly in Extreme Fear; last month was 28 (Fear) Solana is the standout performer: +6.19% weekly, the only top-10 asset with strong positive momentum across both 24h and 7d Hyperliquid (+4.35% weekly) is the second-best performer, both assets benefiting from idiosyncratic strength rather than broad market recovery Dogecoin down 9.43% weekly — the worst performer in the top 10 by a wide margin Ethereum down just 0.46% on the day despite Foundation restructuring and ETF outflow headlines XRP down 6.27% weekly as CLARITY Act odds fell to 42% and Senate entered recess until July 13 TRON’s defensive characteristics weakened into month-end, down 3.74% weekly — still better than BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB AssetPrice24h7dMarket CapVolume (24h)Bitcoin (BTC)$59,101.69–0.26%–5.33%$1.18T$31.35BEthereum (ETH)$1,575.63–0.46%–4.98%$190.15B$11.72BTether (USDT)$0.9984–0.01%–0.03%$184.7B$70.52BBNB$547.09–0.29%–4.54%$73.73B$1.15BUSDC$0.99960.00%0.00%$73.61B$13.24BXRP$1.03–0.30%–6.27%$64.61B$1.58BSolana (SOL)$73.39–0.26%+6.19%$42.63B$3.85BTRON (TRX)$0.3171–0.10%–3.74%$30.08B$638.95MHyperliquid (HYPE)$65.83–0.12%+4.35%$16.65B$659.81MDogecoin (DOGE)$0.07192–0.67%–9.43%$12.26B$638.58M Fear & Greed at 15: Recovering From the Cycle’s Darkest Reading The Fear & Greed Index printed 15 on June 30, an improvement from yesterday’s reading of 12 — the deepest Extreme Fear of the entire 2026 correction cycle. The four-day trajectory tells the story: last month was 28 (Fear), last week 23 (Extreme Fear), yesterday 12 (cycle low), today 15. The slight uptick from 12 to 15 is the first sentiment improvement seen in over a week, though the index remains firmly in Extreme Fear territory.

This sentiment pattern — sustained readings below 20 for multiple consecutive days, including the deepest point of the entire cycle — has historically been associated with periods that precede meaningful relief rallies, though the timing and magnitude of any recovery remain uncertain. The next update arrives within 24 hours and will be the first reading of July, providing an early signal of whether the marginal improvement continues into the new month.

Bitcoin: Closing Out the Worst Month of the Cycle Bitcoin is trading at $59,101.69, down 0.26% on the day and 5.33% over the past week — a decline that caps what has been confirmed as the worst monthly performance of the entire 2026 correction. The 1-week chart shows BTC opened above $62,200 on June 24, dropped sharply to test the $59,000s through a volatile mid-week stretch, and has spent the final days of June grinding in a narrow range near $59,000–$60,000.

Volume at $31.35 billion is elevated (+44.14% versus the prior session per CoinMarketCap data), consistent with month-end institutional rebalancing rather than a fresh directional catalyst. With June closing near $59,000, the monthly candle confirms BTC’s deepest drawdown test of the year, though the price has avoided a clean breach of the May cycle low on a sustained closing basis. For the full BTC breakdown, see our Bitcoin news today page.

Solana: The Standout Performer of the Week Solana is the clear leader among major assets, up 6.19% over the past week to $73.39 even as it dipped slightly (–0.26%) on the day itself. The 1-week chart shows a powerful recovery structure: SOL bottomed near $66 around June 25–26 alongside the broader market selloff, then staged a sustained climb through $68, $70, and finally above $73 by June 30 — outperforming every other top-10 asset by a wide margin on the weekly timeframe.

Volume surged 54.41% to $3.85 billion, confirming institutional participation behind the move rather than thin, low-conviction trading. SOL’s relative strength reflects its faster recovery from the June 26 capitulation low compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, combined with the ongoing Alpenglow upgrade narrative and continued real-world adoption momentum from partnerships announced earlier in the month.

Ethereum: Resilient Despite Foundation Restructuring Headlines Ethereum is down just 0.46% on the day to $1,575.63, holding up reasonably well despite a difficult news cycle that included the Ethereum Foundation’s confirmed 20% staff reduction and persistent spot ETF outflows. The 7-day loss of 4.98% is actually milder than Bitcoin’s 5.33% weekly decline — a notable shift after ETH had underperformed BTC for most of June.

Volume jumped 47.47% to $11.72 billion, the second-highest percentage volume increase in the top 10 after Solana. The relative stability suggests that the worst of the Foundation restructuring and ETF outflow narrative may already be priced in, with the market shifting attention toward whether ETH can build a base above $1,550 heading into July. For daily ETH coverage, see our Ethereum news today tracker.

XRP: Weakest Major Asset as CLARITY Act Odds Slide XRP is the weakest major asset on a weekly basis among BTC, ETH, BNB, and TRX, down 6.27% to $1.03 as CLARITY Act passage odds fell to 42% and the Senate entered recess until July 13. The 1-week chart shows the same pattern as Bitcoin and Ethereum — a sharp drop around June 25–26 followed by a choppy, directionless recovery attempt that has failed to reclaim the $1.06–$1.08 zone on a sustained basis.

Despite the price weakness, on-chain accumulation by large holders has continued throughout the drawdown, and some technical analysts have flagged early bullish reversal signals on the daily chart. Whether those signals translate into price action will likely depend heavily on developments around the CLARITY Act when the Senate returns from recess on July 13.

TRON: Defensive Edge Erodes Into Month-End TRON’s typically defensive profile weakened in the final week of June, with TRX down 3.74% to $0.3171 — still outperforming BTC, ETH, XRP, and BNB on the weekly timeframe, but a notably larger decline than the sub-1% losses TRX posted during earlier capitulation events in June. Volume rose 14.03% to $638.95 million.

The erosion in TRON’s relative strength suggests that sustained multi-week macro pressure is beginning to weigh on even utility-driven assets, though TRX’s structural demand base from USDT settlement remains intact heading into the MiCA enforcement window that opened July 1.

Hyperliquid: Quietly the Second-Best Performer Hyperliquid is up 4.35% over the past week to $65.83, the second-strongest performer in the top 10 after Solana. The 1-week chart shows a steady, low-volatility climb from the low $60s to nearly $66, with volume surging 72.35% to $659.69 million — the largest percentage volume increase of any asset in the top 10. HYPE’s continued strength reflects sustained demand for its on-chain perpetuals exchange, which has maintained robust trading volumes even as broader sentiment remained deeply negative.

Dogecoin: Worst Performer in the Top 10 Dogecoin is down 9.43% over the past week to $0.07192 — by far the weakest performer among major assets and nearly double the percentage decline of the next-worst performer, XRP. With no underlying utility catalyst, DOGE remains the purest sentiment proxy in the top 10, and its outsized weekly loss reflects just how compressed risk appetite has become during the depths of Extreme Fear.

What July Inherits From June June 2026 closes as the worst monthly stretch of the current crypto correction cycle, with Bitcoin down over 5% on the week and Ethereum facing both technical damage and structural organizational news from the Foundation restructuring. Yet the month also closes with two clear bright spots — Solana and Hyperliquid — both demonstrating that idiosyncratic strength is possible even within a broadly bearish macro environment.

The Fear & Greed Index’s modest recovery from 12 to 15 is the first sentiment improvement in over a week, and the path into July will be shaped by three factors: whether the CLARITY Act sees any progress when the Senate returns from recess on July 13, whether Bitcoin can hold the $59,000 zone on a sustained basis, and whether Ethereum’s relative stability this week marks a genuine bottoming process or merely a pause before further downside.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

Dogecoin cofounder Billy Markus, who goes by "Shibetoshi Nakamoto" on X, reacted to recent reports that the world's largest publicly traded company holding Bitcoin, Strategy, may sell a portion of its BTC holdings, about $1.25 billion.

Strategy holds 847,363 BTC as of June 22. If the Bitcoin treasury company were to raise $1.25 billion through Bitcoin sales, it might need to sell about 20,800 BTC at current prices, equivalent to about 2.5% of its 847,363 BTC holdings.

However, the news that Strategy might sell a portion of its massive BTC stash has generated reactions from a large part of the crypto community, including Dogecoin co-founder Billy Markus.

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In an X post, Markus shared a short video clip that had a compilation of tweets from Strategy Chairman and Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor urging holders never to sell their Bitcoin.

This itself attracted comments from the Dogecoin community, as an X user pointed out Markus' well-known decision to sell his DOGE holdings years ago.

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Markus, who co-founded Dogecoin in 2013, sold all of his DOGE holdings in 2015 after being laid off from his job. He liquidated his entire crypto portfolio for about $10,000 to pay rent and cover basic living expenses. This amount was equivalent to what a used Honda Civic would cost at that time.

Despite the recurring jokes and discussions, Markus maintains a lighthearted attitude toward the decision. This is seen with Markus posting a meme GIF that basically said "I'm fine" in response to the X user who recalled this decision.

Strategy to sell Bitcoin?In a recent press release, Strategy announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a BTC Monetization Program under which the company may sell BTC from time to time for three primary purposes.

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First, to generate up to $1.25 billion to fund the USD Reserve; second, to additionally fund preferred stock dividends and interest expenses as they become payable or to replenish the USD Reserve after such payments. Third, to additionally fund repurchases of Digital Credit Securities or Class A common stock.

As stated in the release, the BTC Monetization Program does not obligate Strategy to sell any BTC, fund any dividend payment or interest expense through BTC sales, or repurchase any securities.

The BTC Monetization Program will have no fixed expiration date and may be modified, suspended, or terminated at any time.

Cathie Wood Makes Fresh Bullish Bitcoin Call — Just Months After $1.5M Prediction

Bitcoin Slips Below $59,000 as Volatility Spikes$BTC fell below the $59,000 mark on June 30, posting a 2.1% intraday loss as market volatility picked up sharply in the final hours before a major regulatory deadline. The move triggered over $145 million in leveraged long liquidations, pushing Bitcoin into a high-velocity liquidity pocket as bulls failed to defend a level that had held for much of the year.

Bitcoin traded at $59,270 on June 30, 2026, after a weekly close below $60,000 flipped this year's key support into fresh resistance. The structural significance of the $60,000 level extends beyond technicals. The $60,000 level carries technical importance due to over $1.2 billion in put options open interest at that strike.

The broader selloff has been building for weeks. Multiple pressures converged: a sharp selloff in AI and semiconductor stocks, record Bitcoin ETF outflows, a potential delay to the US CLARITY Act, and early selling signals from long-term holders. June set a record with $4.06 billion in net ETF redemptions, topping February 2025's $3.56 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT driving roughly three-quarters of the outflows.

MiCA Deadline Adds Pressure Across European MarketsThe price dislocation comes as the crypto industry confronts one of its most significant regulatory inflection points in Europe. Crypto companies operating in the European Economic Area face a July 1, 2026 enforcement deadline under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). From that date, platforms offering crypto services without MiCA authorization must stop serving clients across the bloc.

July 1, 2026 is the hard enforcement deadline across the European Economic Area. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has confirmed there will be no extension. After that date, any entity providing crypto-asset services to EU clients without a MiCA license is in breach of EU law and must stop. Critically, there is no intermediate or pending status: a firm is either authorized or it is not.

Only around 210 of the 1,200-plus VASP entities that held pre-MiCA national registrations have converted to full CASP authorization, a conversion rate of roughly 17%. Major exchanges including Kraken, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitpanda, OKX, and Crypto.com have secured licenses, but ten EU jurisdictions have yet to issue a single CASP authorization. Crypto firms operating in the EU must secure licenses before July 1, 2026 or risk losing access to European customers, and regulators in France have warned that non-compliant companies could face enforcement action or blacklisting.

The combination of forced exchange restructuring across Europe and mounting macro pressure has left $BTC exposed heading into the second half of 2026. Bitcoin has fallen 31.7% year-to-date and is 52.6% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,272.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sources:
IG UK: Why has Bitcoin crashed below $60,000?
Bitcoin.com: MiCA Deadline Hits July 1 as Unlicensed Crypto Platforms Face EU Shutdown Risk
Yahoo Finance: July 1 MiCA Deadline Looms: More Than 80% of EU Crypto Firms Still Unlicensed

Iran has laid out a set of preconditions for any future talks with the United States. Among the demands: full control over the Strait of Hormuz, including authority over transit management, toll collection, and maritime services for every vessel passing through one of the most strategically vital waterways on the planet.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz on any given day.

The full list of demands Tehran’s negotiation stance goes well beyond waterway control. Iran is also demanding access to frozen assets, estimated between $6 billion and $12 billion, that have been locked up under various sanctions regimes. On top of that, Iran wants a verified end to Israeli military operations in Lebanon before it will even sit down at the table.

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Iran has rejected or sidelined nuclear negotiations entirely, choosing instead to center discussions on strait control and sanctions relief.

Mediators from Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman have reportedly been involved in attempting to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran.

The conflict in the region has persisted since February 2026, with both sides implementing blockades of various kinds. Shipping routes have already seen meaningful disruptions, with vessels increasingly forced to reroute closer to Omani waters to avoid Iranian-controlled zones.

Hormuz Safe: the Bitcoin-settled insurance play Iran has proposed an initiative called “Hormuz Safe,” a maritime insurance platform for shipping traffic through the strait that would be settled entirely in Bitcoin. Iran anticipates the platform could generate over $10 billion in revenue. Bitcoin settlement offers a way to collect that revenue outside the reach of US dollar-denominated sanctions.

Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency mentioned in association with the platform. No stablecoins, no Ethereum, no tokenized anything.

What this means for crypto investors Bitcoin has been hovering near $64,000, and its price has shown sensitivity to geopolitical developments in the region.

The proposed $10 billion revenue target for Hormuz Safe is eye-catching, but Iran’s ability to actually implement a Bitcoin-settled insurance platform depends on several things going right simultaneously: maintaining physical control of the strait, onboarding international shipping companies onto a sanctioned platform, and processing billions in Bitcoin transactions without the kind of infrastructure that typically takes years to build.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

11h35 ▪ 7 min read ▪ by Ghiles A.

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Bolivia changes its monetary strategy after fifteen years of artificial stability. The country abandons its fixed peg to the dollar due to the decline of its reserves and economic pressure. This decision also revives the debate around financial alternatives like Bitcoin, as cryptocurrencies advance in economies facing currency tensions. The new exchange rate regime marks a new stage for the boliviano and transforms the country’s monetary environment.

In Brief Bolivia abandons its fixed peg to the Dollar after fifteen years to adopt a flexible exchange rate regime due to the exhaustion of its reserves. The end of monetary control occurs as the gap between the official rate and the parallel market Dollar rate has widened significantly. The lifting of restrictions on cryptocurrencies in 2024 caused a strong rise in trading volumes and accelerated the adoption of stablecoins in the country. Bolivian banks are beginning to integrate services related to digital assets, notably USDT, amid financial transformation. Facing currency tensions, Bitcoin appears as a strategic reserve considered by several states and could be a diversification path for Bolivia. Bolivia Abandons Its Dollar Peg After Fifteen Years of Control The US dollar just took another hard hit in Bolivia, where it played a central role in the fixed exchange system established since 2011. The country has just ended this system. The Minister of Economy José Gabriel Espinoza announced in a press release the abandonment of the official rate of about 6.96 bolivianos per US dollar. The country now adopts a flexible floating exchange rate regime, with a rate determined by market forces. This decision comes as the old mechanism no longer reflected the economic reality.

Before this announcement, the Central Bank’s reference rate had already exceeded 10 bolivianos per dollar. The gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel market had significantly increased, reaching about 12.9 to 13.1 bolivianos per dollar by late 2025. The old monetary system could no longer maintain sustainable stability. The government chose a new approach to address accumulated imbalances.

The fixed exchange rate regime worked when Bolivia had enough reserves to support its currency. In 2014, foreign exchange reserves exceeded 15 billion dollars, giving the central bank the means to defend the official rate. Since then, reserves have sharply decreased, reducing their intervention capacity. Rising budget deficits also made maintaining this model increasingly difficult.

The shift to a flexible system is part of a broader economic stabilization strategy. This evolution could also accompany new dealings with international financial institutions. For Bolivian authorities, the goal is to restore a balance between the official market and economic reality. This transformation also opens a new chapter for alternative monetary solutions.

The Rise of Cryptocurrencies Accelerates in the Country For ten years, Bolivia had banned virtual assets on its territory. The situation changed in June 2024, when the central bank lifted restrictions with resolution no. 082/2024 from its board. This opening quickly changed the local financial landscape. Users began exploring cryptocurrencies more as a tool for protection against monetary tensions.

Transaction volumes via official channels rose from 46.5 million dollars in the first half of 2024 to 294 million dollars in the first half of 2025. This increase represents a rise of over 530% in one year. The Bolivian crypto market thus developed a new dynamic after the end of restrictions. Local players gradually adopted new digital uses.

In April 2026, three Bolivian banks already offered services related to USDT. This evolution shows that stablecoins now hold an important place in the national financial ecosystem. Bolivia’s central bank also signed a memorandum of understanding with El Salvador’s National Digital Assets Commission in 2025. The country thus seeks to better understand opportunities related to digital assets.

The disappearance of the fixed rate could, however, change the demand for cryptocurrencies. If citizens can access foreign currencies at market price via official channels, the use of certain stablecoins as protection against dollar shortages could evolve. However, the infrastructure built in recent years remains in place. Users now have digital wallets and master virtual asset transactions.

This situation shows that monetary crises can accelerate stablecoin adoption. Bolivia thus becomes a case observed by crypto market players. Investors now monitor volume evolution after the exchange regime reform. Continued institutional demand around USDT could confirm the lasting establishment of cryptocurrencies in the local financial system.

And Why Not Bitcoin as a New Strategic Reserve? Beyond stablecoins, Bitcoin appears as a monetary alternative used by several states seeking to diversify their reserves. Unlike traditional currencies, its supply is limited to 21 million units. This characteristic makes it a digital asset considered by some governments as a long-term store of value. Its decentralized operation represents a major difference from currencies controlled by central banks.

The United States has integrated Bitcoin into its strategic thinking around national digital asset reserves. This approach is based on the idea that an asset independent from the classic monetary system can strengthen a country’s financial diversification. El Salvador has also placed Bitcoin at the core of its monetary policy since its official adoption. The country continues accumulating Bitcoin reserves totaling 7,696.37 BTC in a logic of financial sovereignty despite IMF pressures.

Bhutan is also among the countries that have developed significant exposure to Bitcoin. Thanks to its energy resources, the country has participated in the development of Bitcoin mining and holds this digital asset in its reserves. This strategy shows that some states now consider Bitcoin a new financial instrument on the same level as certain traditional reserves. The objective is to have an alternative asset in the face of global economic uncertainty.

In this context, Bolivia could also consider Bitcoin as a complementary tool to strengthen the diversification of its reserves. After abandoning its dollar peg and facing difficulties in maintaining sufficient foreign currency levels, the country has an opportunity to explore new financial mechanisms. A Bitcoin reserve would not replace traditional currencies but could offer additional protection against tensions on international markets.

For Bolivia, progressively integrating Bitcoin into a national strategy could represent a new step in modernizing its financial system. The experience of other countries shows that a digital asset can become a diversification instrument when framed by a clear policy. As the country seeks to restore economic stability, BTC could become an additional component of its strategic reserves alongside traditional assets.

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Ghiles A.

Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.