Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Bitcoin sits near $58,000 to $60,000 with the Fear and Greed Index buried in extreme fear. History says washed-out sentiment often precedes bottoms, but fear is a signal, not a floor. Here are the gauges traders are actually watching.
Summary
Bitcoin trades near $58,000 to $60,000 as of July 1, 2026, down about 53% from its October 2025 record of $126,198, after back-to-back quarterly losses to open the year. The Fear and Greed Index sits around 12 to 16, deep in extreme fear, a zone that has historically appeared near local bottoms but is not a timing tool on its own. Bullish positioning signals are stacking up: open interest has collapsed from over $90 billion to about $44.5 billion, leverage is flushed, and coins are leaving exchanges in a pattern that suggests accumulation. The bearish counterweight is real: spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a record $4.5 billion of outflows in June, the Fed is hawkish with a likely December rate hike priced in, and one cycle model points to a bottom only around mid-October. The signals that would confirm a turn are concrete: reclaiming the 20-day and longer moving averages, a flip back to ETF inflows, open interest rebuilding alongside price, and the fear gauge lifting off its extremes. Extreme fear is one of the most misread conditions in markets. When the Fear and Greed Index drops into the low teens, the crowd reads it as a reason to run, and the contrarian reads it as a reason to buy. Both are oversimplifying. Sentiment this low tells you that positioning is stretched and conviction is gone, which is often the raw material of a bottom, but “often” is not “now,” and fear can always get more extreme before it breaks.
The useful move is not to treat the fear gauge as a signal by itself, but to read it alongside the harder data on positioning, flows, and price. This piece walks through the signals traders are watching, lays out the bullish and bearish readings of each, and identifies what would actually confirm that the turn has arrived. The key point is simple: fear tells traders to pay attention, not to assume the bottom is already in.
What the Fear and Greed Index is saying Start with the gauge everyone quotes. The Fear and Greed Index compresses several inputs, volatility, momentum, volume, and social signals, into a single 0 to 100 reading, and the latest chart still shows the market deep in extreme fear. Historically, readings this low have clustered near local bottoms, because they mark the point where sellers have largely exhausted themselves and the marginal holder is fearful rather than greedy. That is the contrarian appeal: when nobody wants the asset, much of the selling may already be done.
Source: CoinMarketCap The caution is that the index is a description of the present, not a prediction of the future. Extreme fear can persist for weeks, and it can deepen. During genuine downtrends, the gauge has sat in fear for long stretches while price kept falling, so treating a low reading as an automatic buy signal has burned plenty of traders. The right way to use it is as context: it tells you the emotional backdrop is washed out, which raises the odds that other bottoming signals are meaningful, without confirming anything on its own.
That is why how the index works matters before using it as a trading signal. The number is useful because it summarizes the market mood, but it is not a floor under price. For confirmation, traders still need price levels, ETF flows, leverage data, and macro conditions to line up.
Signal one: positioning has reset The most constructive signal under the surface is what happened to leverage. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has collapsed from above $90 billion to roughly $44.5 billion over recent weeks, less than half its peak. That drop reflects long liquidations, profit-taking, and traders reducing speculative exposure. In plain terms, the leverage that builds up in a rally and makes a market fragile has been flushed out.
Why this matters for a turn is mechanical. A market loaded with leveraged longs is vulnerable, because small drops trigger liquidations that cascade into larger drops. A market where that leverage has been cleared is sturdier, because the forced-selling fuel is gone. Resets like this often precede bottoms, since they remove the overhang that drags price lower and leave room for fresh positioning to push the other way.
The bearish reading is that falling open interest also signals fading demand and cautious participation, not just healthy deleveraging. Traders stepping back can mean they see no reason to buy, and a market with thin conviction can drift lower on light volume. The reset is a necessary condition for a durable bottom, but it is not sufficient by itself, because clean positioning can still sit under a price that keeps grinding down.
Signal two: exchange flows and accumulation The second signal comes from where the coins are moving. Through the drawdown, Bitcoin has seen exchange outflows exceed inflows, meaning more coins are leaving exchanges than arriving. That pattern is typically read as accumulation: holders pulling coins into self-custody or long-term storage rather than keeping them on exchanges ready to sell. When supply leaves the venues where selling happens, it thins the pool of coins available to hit the market.
The bullish interpretation is that long-term holders are quietly buying weakness while short-term traders panic, a divergence that has marked accumulation phases before. Steady outflows during extreme fear suggest conviction underneath the fear, the kind of hands that absorb selling and set the base for a recovery. That is the constructive version of the on-chain story, and it fits with the broader idea that the market is moving from forced selling toward accumulation.
The counterpoint is that exchange flows are noisy and can reflect custody shifts, institutional plumbing, or one-off moves rather than genuine accumulation. Outflows are encouraging, but they are a soft signal, easily overstated. On their own they confirm that some holders are unbothered, not that the bottom is in. They matter most when they line up with stronger evidence from ETF flows and price.
Signal three: the ETF bid The third signal is the one cutting against the bulls, and it is the most important on the bearish side. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $4.5 billion of net outflows in June 2026, their worst month since launching, removing the steady institutional bid that had cushioned earlier declines. The funds that were supposed to represent durable, price-insensitive demand instead became a source of selling, and their flows have tracked the drawdown closely.
This matters because the ETF bid was a structural change in how Bitcoin traded. When it was flowing in, it provided a floor of consistent demand. When it reverses, that floor becomes a headwind, and the market has to find other buyers to absorb the redemptions. For sentiment to turn convincingly, this is the signal that most needs to flip.
A return to sustained ETF inflows would tell the market that institutions are stepping back in, which would validate the bullish reading of the other signals. Continued outflows would keep the pressure on regardless of how washed out the fear gauge looks. That is why the ETF bid that reversed deserves more weight than a sentiment reading alone. In this cycle, flows are not a side detail; they are one of the main channels moving the market.
Signal four: oversold technicals The fourth signal is on the chart. The relative strength index has dropped near 30, the oversold threshold, indicating that momentum has fallen far and fast and that the move may be stretched to the downside. Price sits near support in the $58,000 area, below the 20-day exponential moving average around $62,450, and well beneath the longer-term moving averages, the 200-day near $65,200 and the 50-month near $65,600, that mark the bull-bear boundaries.
The bullish read is that oversold conditions at support are where reversals begin, and a bounce off the high $50,000s that reclaims the moving averages would signal the downtrend is weakening. The bearish read is that oversold can stay oversold in a strong downtrend. Until price actually reclaims those moving averages, the path of least resistance points lower, with a break below support opening the door toward the mid-$50,000s. The technicals frame the levels, but they do not resolve the direction until price picks one.
That is why the level-based bottom question matters alongside sentiment. Bitcoin does not bottom because the index is low; it bottoms when buyers defend levels, reclaim resistance, and force trend-followers to change position. The fear gauge tells traders the market is stretched. The chart tells them whether the stretch is becoming a reversal.
The bull read: capitulation precedes bottoms Put the constructive signals together and a coherent bottoming case emerges. Extreme fear, flushed leverage, steady accumulation, and oversold momentum are the classic ingredients of capitulation, the moment when the last weak hands sell and stronger hands absorb the supply. In prior cycles, this combination has marked the exhaustion of a downtrend, the point where selling pressure runs out because everyone inclined to sell already has. In this reading, the current setup looks less like the start of a new collapse and more like the late stage of a forced reset.
The bull case also treats the record ETF outflows as a lagging sign of the same capitulation instead of a fresh catastrophe. Institutions derisked into weakness, leverage was cleared, and sentiment collapsed into extreme fear. If that selling has already happened, the market may be closer to a base than the headline fear suggests. The reset positioning and the accumulation on-chain suggest a foundation is forming under the panic.
If that is right, the setup favors a recovery once a catalyst arrives to flip sentiment, and the extreme fear reading becomes, in hindsight, the marker of the low. This is the contrarian thesis, and the data gives it real support. The key caveat is timing: a market can be in a bottoming zone before the actual bottom is printed. Bulls still need confirmation before calling the turn.
The bear read: fear can deepen The opposing case is equally grounded, and it starts with the fact that Bitcoin is down about 53% from its high with back-to-back quarterly losses, a genuine bear market instead of a shallow dip. Deep drawdowns can extend, and washed-out sentiment can get more washed out. The macro backdrop offers no relief: the Fed is hawkish under its current chair, markets are pricing a strong chance of a December rate hike as inflation drifts back toward 4%, and a key jobs report looms, all of which pressure risk assets like Bitcoin, which trades as high-beta risk far more than as a haven.
There is also a timing argument. One cycle model notes that bear-market corrections have averaged about 12 months, which, measured from the October 2025 record, points to a bottom only around mid-October 2026. By that reading, the current fear could be a stop along the way instead of the destination, with more downside and more time required before a durable low. The record ETF outflows, in this frame, are an active headwind, not a capitulation tail.
Fear is a signal, not a floor, and it can persist far longer than the impatient expect. The chart can stay oversold, ETF flows can stay negative, and macro can keep forcing risk assets lower. That does not invalidate the bottoming signals; it simply means they are conditions, not confirmations. The bear case is strongest as long as price remains below the key moving averages and the ETF bid stays absent.
What would confirm a turn The way to cut through the debate is to watch for confirmation instead of guessing at the bottom. Four signals would mark a genuine turn. The first is price reclaiming the 20-day EMA near $62,450 and then the heavier resistance around $64,000, which would break the pattern of lower highs and put buyers back in control. The second is ETF flows flipping from outflows back to sustained inflows, the clearest sign the institutional bid has returned.
The third is open interest rebuilding alongside a rising price, which would show fresh capital coming in with conviction instead of a low-volume drift. The fourth is the Fear and Greed Index lifting off its extremes, confirming that the emotional backdrop is normalizing. Until several of those align, the constructive signals remain a setup instead of a trigger. Extreme fear, reset leverage, and accumulation describe a market that could turn, not one that has.
The discipline is to treat washed-out sentiment as a reason to watch closely, while waiting for price and flows to confirm before concluding the low is in. That is how experienced traders use a reading in extreme fear: not as a buy button, but as a cue to track the signals that actually mark the turn. The lower the fear gauge falls, the more important confirmation becomes, because the emotional temptation to act early grows stronger.
How this fear compares with past bottoms Extreme fear is not new, and prior episodes offer a rough guide to how it tends to resolve, with a large caveat. In earlier cycles, the deepest fear readings have often clustered near major lows, appearing when a drawdown was closer to its end than its beginning, precisely because fear peaks when selling has run far. The pattern that has marked durable bottoms combines washed-out sentiment with flushed leverage and steady accumulation by long-term holders, the same three ingredients visible now. On that template, the current setup rhymes with past bottoming conditions.
The caveat is that the template has failed often enough to demand humility. Extreme fear has also appeared in the middle of downtrends, not just at their ends, and readers who bought every low reading in a bear market bought too early more than once. The difference between a fear reading that marks a bottom and one that marks a pause is usually not visible in the sentiment gauge itself. It shows up later, in whether price reclaims key levels and whether the institutional bid returns.
There is also a structural change that makes the comparison imperfect. The presence of spot ETFs has altered how Bitcoin trades, adding a large, flow-driven institutional participant that did not exist in earlier cycles. That means past bottoming patterns, built in a market without ETFs, may not map cleanly onto this one. The ETF flows can amplify moves in both directions, which is why the record June outflows matter so much and why this cycle’s bottom may look different from the ones the historical template describes.
The macro calendar that matters Because Bitcoin is trading as a high-beta risk asset, the signals most likely to flip or deepen sentiment are macroeconomic, and the calendar is crowded. The nearest is the monthly jobs report, a read on labor-market strength that feeds directly into rate expectations: a hot number would reinforce the case for the Fed staying tight, pressuring risk assets, while a soft number could revive hopes for easier policy and lift them. Traders watching for a sentiment turn are watching that print closely. It is not a crypto-native signal, but it can decide whether crypto-native bottoming signals actually matter.
Further out sits the Fed itself. With markets pricing a meaningful chance of a December rate hike as inflation drifts back toward 4%, each inflation report and each Fed meeting becomes a potential catalyst. A hawkish surprise would deepen the risk-off mood that has weighed on Bitcoin, while any sign the tightening is ending could mark the macro turn that a sentiment-driven bottom needs. The path of rates, more than any crypto-native signal, is the backdrop against which the fear gauge will either normalize or sink further.
The practical point is that a durable turn in Bitcoin sentiment probably requires a shift in the macro wind, not just an oversold chart. The internal signals, reset leverage, accumulation, extreme fear, describe a market primed to respond, but the trigger is likely to come from outside crypto: a softer labor market, a friendlier inflation path, or a Fed that signals the end of tightening. Until the macro calendar delivers one of those, the constructive crypto signals remain a coiled setup waiting for a catalyst, which is why traders track the economic data as closely as the order book right now.
The one signal that matters most With so many gauges flashing at once, it helps to rank them, and in this cycle one signal outranks the rest: the ETF bid. Before spot Bitcoin funds existed, a bottom was mostly a story about on-chain holders, leverage, and sentiment, the classic signals. Those still matter, but the arrival of ETFs added a large, flow-driven institutional participant whose buying and selling now sets much of the marginal price. When that participant is buying, it provides a steady floor. When it is selling, as it was through the record June outflows, it becomes a persistent drag that the other signals cannot easily overcome.
That is why the ETF flow number deserves more weight than the fear gauge or the RSI. Extreme fear can mark a bottom, reset leverage can prime one, and accumulation can build a base, but none of them forces the institutional bid to return. The flows do that directly. A market can sit at extreme fear with clean positioning and still grind lower if the funds keep redeeming, because the redemptions are real selling that has to be absorbed.
Conversely, a decisive flip back to sustained inflows would validate every other constructive signal at once, confirming that the capitulation the other gauges describe has actually ended. The practical takeaway is a hierarchy. Treat the ETF flows as the primary confirmation, the signal that most reliably separates a real turn from a false one. Treat reset leverage and on-chain accumulation as supporting evidence that the setup is favorable. Treat extreme fear and oversold technicals as context that raises the odds without confirming anything.
The macro calendar is the likely trigger that moves the flows one way or the other. Reading the signals in that order, flows first, positioning second, sentiment last, is how to avoid the classic trap of buying extreme fear too early. The gauge in extreme fear tells you the market is primed. The ETF flows will tell you when it has actually turned.
Frequently asked questions What does a Fear and Greed reading near 16 mean? It means the index sits deep in extreme fear, its lowest zone, reflecting washed-out sentiment across volatility, momentum, volume, and social signals. Historically, readings this low have appeared near local bottoms because much of the selling may be exhausted. But it is a description of the present, not a prediction, and extreme fear can persist or deepen during a real downtrend.
Is extreme fear a reliable buy signal? Not on its own. Low readings raise the odds that a bottom is near, but sentiment can stay fearful for weeks while price keeps falling. It is best used as context alongside harder data on positioning, flows, and price, instead of as a standalone trigger. Treating a low reading as an automatic buy has repeatedly caught traders too early.
Why does falling open interest matter? Open interest dropping from over $90 billion to about $44.5 billion means leverage has been flushed out through liquidations and derisking. That makes the market sturdier, because the forced-selling fuel that drives cascading drops is gone, which often precedes bottoms. The caveat is that falling open interest can also signal fading demand, so it is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a turn.
What are exchange outflows telling us? More Bitcoin has been leaving exchanges than arriving, a pattern typically read as accumulation, with holders moving coins into storage instead of keeping them ready to sell. It suggests conviction underneath the fear. But exchange flows are noisy and can reflect custody or institutional shifts, so they are a soft signal that some holders are unbothered, not proof the bottom is in.
Why are the ETF outflows so important? Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a record $4.5 billion of outflows in June 2026, turning the steady institutional bid that once cushioned drops into a headwind. Because that bid was a structural support, its reversal is the signal that most needs to flip for a convincing turn. A return to sustained inflows would validate the bullish case, while continued outflows keep pressure on regardless of sentiment.
Where is Bitcoin’s key support and resistance? Support sits near the $58,000 area, and reclaiming the 20-day EMA around $62,450 is the first upside test, followed by heavier resistance near $64,000 and the longer-term moving averages around $65,200 to $65,600. RSI near 30 shows oversold momentum. A break below support opens the door toward the mid-$50,000s, while reclaiming the moving averages would signal the downtrend is weakening.
Could Bitcoin fall further from here? Yes. Bitcoin is down about 53% from its record with back-to-back quarterly losses, and deep drawdowns can extend. A hawkish Fed, a likely December rate hike, and looming jobs data pressure risk assets, and one cycle model points to a bottom only around mid-October 2026. Extreme fear is a signal, not a floor, and it can persist longer than expected.
What would confirm that Bitcoin has turned? Four signals: price reclaiming the 20-day EMA near $62,450 and then resistance around $64,000, ETF flows flipping back to sustained inflows, open interest rebuilding alongside a rising price, and the Fear and Greed Index lifting off its extremes. Until several align, the constructive signals describe a market that could turn instead of one that has, so confirmation should come before conviction.
Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and technical and sentiment analysis is speculative and may not predict actual movements. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed professional before making financial decisions. Figures are accurate as of July 1, 2026, and will change.
TLDR; Bitcoin ETF Outflows reached a record $4.5 billion in June, marking the largest monthly withdrawal since US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. BlackRock IBIT accounted for nearly 79% of all June withdrawals after investors pulled about $3.55 billion from the fund during the month. Total US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings continued to decline, with CryptoQuant reporting assets below 1.25 million BTC despite positive lifetime inflows. The scale of ETF selling exceeded Strategy’s planned $1.25 billion Bitcoin financing program, highlighting weaker institutional demand across the market. US Bitcoin ETF Outflows climbed to a record level in June after investors withdrew approximately $4.5 billion from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. The monthly decline became the largest since the products launched in January 2024 and extended a broader trend of institutional selling.
According to SoSoValue, the heavy withdrawals pushed year-to-date net flows for 2026 deeper into negative territory while reducing cumulative net inflows since launch. The decline also coincided with softer Bitcoin prices and growing investor interest in artificial intelligence stocks and new public offerings.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Reach Historic Monthly High June marked the weakest month ever recorded for US spot Bitcoin ETFs. SoSoValue data showed total monthly withdrawals reached roughly $4.51 billion, surpassing the previous monthly record set in early 2025.
BlackRock’s IBIT experienced the largest share of the selling. Investors withdrew about $3.55 billion during June, representing nearly four-fifths of total Bitcoin ETF Outflows. Over the past two months alone, IBIT has recorded almost $5 billion in net withdrawals.
IBIT monthly flow. Source: SoSoValue Fidelity’s FBTC also ended June with net outflows of roughly $456.6 million. Its second-quarter withdrawals approached $903 million as institutional investors continued reducing exposure.
The two-month selling wave has now removed almost $7 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Total ETF assets declined from about $94 billion in May to nearly $71 billion by the end of June.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Reflect Softer Institutional Demand CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno said US Bitcoin ETF holdings are now lower than they were at the same time last year. Total holdings have fallen below 1.25 million BTC despite lifetime net inflows remaining above $51 billion.
The difference between cumulative inflows and actual holdings suggests demand has weakened. Redemptions and changing fund positions have reduced Bitcoin exposure across the ETF sector even as historical inflow totals remain positive.
Analysts also pointed to changing investor preferences. Strong performance in artificial intelligence companies and growing interest in high-profile initial public offerings attracted capital away from digital assets during June.
The latest Bitcoin ETF Outflows also overshadowed Strategy’s newly announced authorization to raise up to $1.25 billion through its Bitcoin monetization program. While the corporate financing plan aims to support its capital structure, June’s ETF withdrawals were more than three times larger.
Bitcoin traded around $58,640 after falling more than 19% over the previous month. Even so, market observers noted continued whale accumulation around key support levels. Investors will now monitor whether Bitcoin ETF Outflows begin to stabilize during July or continue pressuring institutional Bitcoin demand.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
@World_xyz has officially launched as a @Solana-native, self-custodial prediction market, integrating directly into the @Phantom mobile and desktop applications. The debut marks a notable shift in how Phantom's prediction market infrastructure operates, replacing a previous setup that routed trades through a centralized intermediary.
A Direct, On-Chain Experience for 20 Million Users The platform gives Phantom's 20M+ user base access to binary contracts on $BTC price action and the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, all without moving funds to centralized wrappers. Phantom's own disclosure describes World as "a non-custodial prediction markets protocol" that "provides order routing to liquidity providers on the Solana blockchain."
When a user opens a prediction market position through Phantom, that position is represented as an SPL token, a standard Solana token, that settles on-chain. Each contract is priced between $0 and $1 based on implied probability. Every position uses $CASH as the primary settlement stablecoin, enabling instant, automatic redemptions once a market concludes.
The automatic settlement is a material improvement over how Phantom's prediction markets previously worked. Before June 1, the infrastructure was provided by DFlow, operating through a Kalshi integration, where expired positions required manual redemption. Under World, payouts are redeemed automatically when an event ends.
Chainlink Replaces Slow, Human-Governed Oracle Resolution The oracle layer is a defining element of the architecture. World's backend relies on @Chainlink Data Streams and the Chainlink Runtime Environment (CRE) to resolve markets without manual intervention. The CRE provides developers the workflow execution environment required to repeatedly establish, resolve, and settle markets continuously, even on a minute-by-minute basis, all without manual intervention.
Chainlink's approach to prediction market resolutions significantly reduces payout times, often cutting them from one to two hours with legacy providers to under five minutes. Many prediction markets still rely on human-operated optimistic oracles, where someone proposes an outcome that is accepted as true unless another participant disputes it within a set time window. If no one objects, the proposed result stands and payouts are distributed accordingly. World's integration with Chainlink is designed to remove that dependency entirely.
The timing aligns with broader momentum around on-chain event markets. Monthly prediction market volume grew from $1.2 billion in early 2025 to over $20 billion in January 2026, with more than 840,000 unique wallets now participating every month. With the FIFA World Cup underway and $BTC volatility keeping crypto price markets active, World is entering a high-demand window for the product it is offering.
Sources:
Solana Compass: Phantom's Disclosure Names World Prediction Markets as Infrastructure Provider
Phantom Help Center: Trade Prediction Markets in Phantom
Chainlink Blog: The DeFi Moment for Prediction Markets
Bitcoin’s price fell by 14.1% in the second quarter of 2026, continuing its downward trajectory with a third consecutive quarterly decline. This development has led to a year-to-date decrease of over 30%, with Bitcoin closing the quarter at approximately $60,000. The cryptocurrency has dropped more than 50% from its all-time high in late 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market such as liquidity constraints and reduced investor participation. Market indicators suggest that these trends may persist, aligning with analyst forecasts that expect further declines before a potential stabilization later in the year.
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Key Takeaways Market activity suggests participants are adjusting to Bitcoin’s continued price drops, with recent declines consistent with pricing supportive of NO on near-term recovery. Bitcoin’s fall from its 2025 peak indicates sustained pressure and potential challenges in reversing the current trend. The market’s current pricing implies a cautious stance, with low probabilities assigned to substantial price recoveries in the short term. What to Watch Watch for any shifts in liquidity or investor sentiment that could alter Bitcoin’s trajectory. Key indicators include ETF flows and macroeconomic developments such as Federal Reserve policy announcements. Any significant changes in these areas could influence market pricing and expectations for Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months. Developments around the July 2 market resolution, where current pricing reflects a 50% probability, may provide further insights into market sentiment.
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Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h July 1 2.7% — — View market → July 1 1.6% — — View market → July 1 0.9% — — View market → July 1 0.2% — — View market → July 1 0.2% — — View market → July 2 2026 56.5% — — View market → July 2 2026 7.5% — — View market → July 2 2026 13.5% — — View market →
Bitcoin’s battle around the $60K region is entering a decisive phase after sellers are forcing a breakdown below this major support area. With momentum still favoring the sellers, traders are now watching whether demand can prevent a deeper correction toward the mid-$50K region.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart On the daily timeframe, BTC has extended its bearish trend after losing several major support zones. The recent rejection by the 200-day moving average around $80K and the breakdown of the 100-day moving average near $ 74 K have reinforced the longer-term downtrend, with both moving averages now sloping lower and acting as dynamic resistance.
The price is currently trading around $58.7K after breaking slightly below the $60K demand zone. This indicates that buyers have struggled to defend one of the market’s most important psychological levels. The next significant support lies around the $55K region, while a deeper correction could expose the broader demand area near $52K.
On the upside, Bitcoin would first need to reclaim the $60K level quickly before challenging the $66K to $68K resistance zone. Beyond that, the $72K to $74K area remains the primary barrier, as it coincides with the long-term moving averages. The broader bearish structure would only begin to improve if BTC manages to reclaim this region.
Source: TradingView BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart The lower timeframe presents a similarly bearish picture. Bitcoin continues to trade inside a descending structure, respecting both the upper and lower boundaries throughout the recent decline. Every recovery attempt has produced another lower high, confirming that sellers remain in control.
The latest rejection from the $66K to $68K supply zone pushed BTC back toward the lower boundary of the channel. Price is now hovering around $58.7K, slightly beneath the $60K support area, increasing the probability of another test of lower liquidity and a breakdown of the channel structure.
Meanwhile, the RSI has formed a modest bullish divergence, with momentum making slightly higher lows while price printed fresh lows. Although this divergence could trigger a short-term relief bounce, it has yet to receive confirmation through a decisive breakout above nearby resistance.
Source: TradingView On-Chain Analysis Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has fallen sharply to approximately 0.09, placing the metric deep within the low-profit region shown on the chart.
NUPL measures the aggregate unrealized profit or loss held across the Bitcoin network. Higher readings generally reflect widespread investor optimism and elevated profitability, while lower values indicate shrinking profits and deteriorating market sentiment.
The current reading suggests that the majority of holders have seen a significant reduction in unrealized gains compared to previous months. Historically, such depressed NUPL levels have been associated with periods of capitulation or late-stage bear market conditions, when weak hands are gradually flushed out of the market.
While this does not guarantee an immediate reversal, it indicates that much of the speculative excess has already been removed. If selling pressure begins to ease and long-term investors continue accumulating, these historically depressed profitability levels could eventually provide the foundation for a broader recovery. Until price reclaims key resistance zones, however, the technical structure continues to favor the sellers.
The transition from Bitcoin [BTC] mining to AI is emerging as a growing risk as the market heads into Q3.
In a recent post, On-chain Lens reported that Riot Platforms sold around 500 BTC worth approximately $30 million, highlighting this pivot in real time. This move is notable in terms of timing, as Bitcoin has broken below $57k for the first time since early Q4 2025. Typically, such weakness would weigh on RIOT’s stock, yet price action has diverged.
Notably, RIOT closed Q2 up 120%, marking its strongest quarterly performance since Q2 2023. Despite Bitcoin’s 15% correction during Q2, RIOT has significantly outperformed, highlighting a clear decoupling between miner equities and spot BTC.
Source: TradingView (RIOT/USD) This divergence gains relevance in the context of Riot’s capital allocation.
The company sold 3,778 BTC for approximately $289.5 million last quarter, while mining only 1,473 BTC. This means it sold more Bitcoin than it produced, reducing its treasury instead of building it. As a result, holdings fell to around 15,680 BTC, down about 18% year over year.
The recent 500 BTC sale fits into this pattern. It suggests the Bitcoin treasury strategy is flattening, with a growing shift toward AI-related expansion. In this setup, BTC is increasingly being used as a cash reserve to fund data-center and compute investments. Naturally, the question is whether this transition introduces a potential risk factor for Bitcoin heading into H2 2026.
Bitcoin miner stress builds as AI shift accelerates Miner capitulation is becoming a normal feature of bear cycles.
In H1, Bitcoin saw notable miner stress as it closed two consecutive quarters in the red. This was significant because estimated production costs were around $78k, while the spot price has dropped below $58k. In simple terms, miners are now producing Bitcoin at a higher cost than its market price, which puts sustained pressure on profitability.
Amid this backdrop, the Bitcoin hashrate rebounded in June, rising sharply and moving back toward late May highs. This suggests a short-term recovery in network activity and miner participation, even as miner economics remain under pressure. Put simply, the move highlights a divergence between near-term network strength and underlying cost stress.
Source: Blockchain Taken together, if this trend continues through Q3, miner rewards will likely come under pressure as higher hashrate increases competition and raises mining difficulty, reducing earnings per unit of hashpower.
At the same time, this environment can speed up strategic shifts. For larger miners, continued margin pressure increases the need to diversify, including a gradual move into AI and high-performance computing.
As a result, Bitcoin holdings may increasingly be used as cash to fund these investments rather than being held long term, signaling a structural shift in miner behavior through H2. Riot Platforms’s recent sale of 500 BTC, in this context, may be an early sign of this broader trend as Bitcoin heads into Q3.
Final Summary Miners are under pressure because Bitcoin is now cheaper than the cost to mine it. Some miners are selling BTC and shifting toward AI to fund their business.
Alt season is the phase when altcoins outrun Bitcoin and portfolios go vertical. Traders have waited more than 260 days for the latest one. Here is what it is, how to measure it, and why it keeps failing to show up.
Summary
Alt season, or altcoin season, is a sustained period when most altcoins outperform Bitcoin, often producing the largest percentage gains of a market cycle. It is measured by the Altcoin Season Index, which tracks how many of the top 100 altcoins beat Bitcoin over 90 days; above 75 is alt season, below 25 is Bitcoin season, and the index sits near 43 in mid-2026. The classic pattern is a rotation: Bitcoin rises first, then consolidates, and capital flows out into large-cap alts, then mid-caps, then small-caps. The reason alt season keeps not arriving in 2026 is a mix of a bearish Bitcoin far below its record, high Bitcoin dominance, and the ETF wall, where institutional money is locked into Bitcoin through regulated funds instead of rotating into alts. The index is reactionary, confirming an alt season only after it has begun, which is why chasing it late and rotating prematurely are the two most common and costly mistakes. Table of Contents
What alt season isThe Altcoin Season IndexBitcoin dominance and the rotationThe four phases of the cycleWhy alt season keeps not arriving in 2026Historical alt seasonsThe conditions that would trigger oneThe traps to avoidWhere the money rotates firstFrequently Asked Questions Alt season is the crypto market’s most anticipated and most argued-about phase. It is the stretch of a cycle when the thousands of coins that are not Bitcoin suddenly outrun it, and portfolios that spent months going nowhere go vertical. Traders wait for it, debate whether it has started, and often miss it. As of mid-2026, the wait has stretched past 260 days since the last confirmed alt season, long enough that some question whether the phenomenon still works the way it used to. This guide explains what alt season actually is, how it is measured, the rotation that drives it, and, most usefully right now, why it keeps failing to arrive.
An altcoin is any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, from large names like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP down to thousands of small tokens. Alt season is the phase of a market cycle when these altcoins, as a group, significantly outperform Bitcoin over a sustained stretch, typically weeks to a few months. During one, it is common for many altcoins to double or triple while Bitcoin moves sideways or rises more slowly, and the best-performing names can post gains of several hundred percent.
The defining feature is relative performance, not just rising prices. Altcoins can go up while Bitcoin also goes up; what makes it an alt season is that they go up more. Capital that had concentrated in Bitcoin spreads outward into the rest of the market, lifting a broad range of tokens and shifting attention, liquidity, and speculation toward new narratives and projects. It is the part of the cycle that produces the outsized returns crypto is famous for, and also the sharpest reversals when it ends.
Alt season is the counterpart to Bitcoin season, the phase when Bitcoin leads and altcoins lag. The market cycles between the two, and knowing which phase you are in is one of the most useful pieces of context a crypto participant can have, because the same portfolio behaves very differently depending on which is in force.
The Altcoin Season Index The most-cited way to judge the phase is the Altcoin Season Index, a tool that turns the question into a single number. It measures how many of the top 100 altcoins, excluding stablecoins, have outperformed Bitcoin over the previous 90 days, and expresses that as a score from 0 to 100. The thresholds are simple: a reading above 75 signals a confirmed alt season, meaning at least three quarters of the leading altcoins beat Bitcoin over the window. A reading below 25 signals Bitcoin season, where altcoins are broadly lagging. Anything between 25 and 75 is a mixed or neutral market where no clear rotation has taken hold.
As of mid-2026, the index sits around 43, up sharply from June lows near 11 to 12 but still well short of the 75 needed to confirm rotation. That reading tells a precise story: altcoins have gained some strength off the bottom, with more of them starting to beat Bitcoin, but the market remains in neutral territory, leaning toward Bitcoin, not in an alt season. The jump from the low teens to the low 40s shows early signs of life without confirmation.
The index has one important weakness that every user should understand. It is built on a trailing 90-day window, which makes it a lagging, reactionary measure. By the time it climbs above 75 and confirms an alt season, much of the move has already happened, so the confirmation arrives after the best entry points have passed. The index is excellent for describing where the market has been and poor at predicting where it is going next.
Bitcoin dominance and the rotation The companion metric is Bitcoin dominance, often written BTC.D, which is Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization. When dominance is high, Bitcoin holds most of the market’s value; when it falls, value is shifting into altcoins. Traders watch dominance closely because a sustained decline is one of the clearest signs that capital is rotating out of Bitcoin and into the rest of the market, the essence of an alt season.
In mid-2026, Bitcoin dominance sits in the mid-to-high 50s, and analysts have flagged a sustained break below 55%, and ideally lower, as the threshold that would signal a real, broad rotation. Above that level, Bitcoin is still absorbing the market’s capital, and altcoins struggle to get sustained traction. The mechanism links dominance to the index: falling dominance means altcoins are gaining share, which shows up as more of them outperforming Bitcoin, which lifts the Altcoin Season Index. The two metrics describe the same rotation from different angles.
The reason dominance matters so much is that it captures the flow of money, not just price. An altcoin can rise in dollar terms while Bitcoin rises faster, in which case dominance climbs and it is still Bitcoin season despite green candles everywhere. Only when altcoins outpace Bitcoin does dominance fall and rotation begin. That is why seasoned traders watch dominance alongside price: it strips out the illusion that a rising market is automatically an alt season.
The four phases of the cycle Alt season does not appear at random; it tends to arrive at a specific point in a repeating cycle with four rough phases. The first is accumulation, when prices stabilize near the bottom of a downturn and early buyers quietly build positions while sentiment is still poor. The second is the Bitcoin-led rally, when fresh capital enters the market and flows first into Bitcoin, the primary on-ramp, pushing it up and often to new highs while altcoins lag.
The third phase is where alt season lives. After Bitcoin rallies hard and then consolidates, moving sideways, holders who have made gains start looking for higher returns elsewhere and rotate capital into altcoins. This rotation is usually sequential instead of simultaneous: money moves first into large-cap alts like Ethereum, then into mid-caps, and finally into small-cap and speculative tokens as risk appetite grows. The fourth phase is the top and unwind, when euphoria peaks, the last speculative money piles into the smallest and riskiest coins, and the cycle eventually reverses into a downturn.
Understanding this sequence explains why alt season has a prerequisite that is often missed: it typically follows a Bitcoin rally to new highs and a consolidation. Without Bitcoin first leading and then pausing, there is no pool of Bitcoin gains to rotate, and no stable backdrop for capital to move out along the risk curve. The phase is not just a mood; it is a specific stage that depends on what came before it.
Why alt season keeps not arriving in 2026 This is the question on every trader’s mind, and the answer is a convergence of factors instead of a single cause. The first is the most basic: alt season usually follows a Bitcoin rally to new highs and a consolidation, and in 2026 Bitcoin has done the opposite. It sits far below its record, in a bearish, drawn-out drawdown, so the precondition of a fresh Bitcoin high that seeds rotation has simply not been met. There are no large Bitcoin gains sitting around waiting to rotate into alts when Bitcoin itself is down.
The second factor is dominance. Bitcoin dominance has stayed elevated in the mid-to-high 50s, above the threshold analysts see as necessary for broad rotation, which means capital keeps concentrating in Bitcoin instead of spreading out. The third, and the most structurally interesting, is the ETF wall. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have pulled enormous institutional capital into Bitcoin through regulated products, but that money is largely confined to Bitcoin. Unlike the retail flows of past cycles, which moved freely from Bitcoin into thousands of altcoins, institutional capital that enters through a Bitcoin ETF tends to stay in Bitcoin, because those investors gain crypto exposure through the fund and do not rotate down the risk curve into individual tokens. The channel that once carried money from Bitcoin into alts is partly blocked.
There is a fourth factor: selectivity. Even where rotation is happening, it is narrative-driven and concentrated instead of broad. Institutional participation has made the market more discerning, so money managers favor altcoins with clear fundamentals, regulatory standing, and liquidity, while thousands of microcap tokens with no product and no revenue are left behind. The result is that even partial rotations lift a handful of sectors, real-world assets, AI infrastructure, blue-chip DeFi, instead of the whole market. A rising tide that once floated every boat now floats a chosen few, which is why the broad, everything-pumps alt season of past cycles keeps failing to materialize.
Historical alt seasons The past shows what a real alt season looks like, and how the forces behind them change. The first major one ran through 2017 and into early 2018, driven by the initial coin offering boom. Hundreds of new projects raised money by issuing tokens directly to retail investors, flooding the market with new assets and speculators, and Bitcoin dominance collapsed from around 86% in late 2017 to under 40% at the start of 2018 as money poured into altcoins. It ended in a deep, prolonged bear market that erased most of the gains.
The second ran through 2020 and 2021, powered by different narratives: decentralized finance protocols, non-fungible tokens, new layer-one blockchains, and eventually meme coins. Capital rotated from Bitcoin into DeFi, then NFTs, then competing smart-contract chains, producing enormous gains across sectors. Institutional investors began entering crypto during this cycle, making the market larger but also beginning the shift toward the selectivity now visible in 2026.
The contrast between those cycles and the present is the whole lesson. Both past alt seasons ran on free-flowing retail capital that moved easily from Bitcoin into a wide field of tokens. The 2026 market has more institutional money, more regulation, and the ETF wall, all of which channel capital differently. The historical pattern is not broken, but the plumbing has changed, which is why the same triggers produce a weaker and more selective response than they once did.
The conditions that would trigger one If alt season is late instead of dead, what would actually bring it? Analysts point to a set of conditions that, when several align, have historically preceded rotation within a quarter. The first and most important is Bitcoin making a new high and then consolidating, which creates both the gains and the stable backdrop that seed rotation. Until Bitcoin recovers and leads, the sequence cannot begin.
The second is a sustained break in Bitcoin dominance below the mid-50s, confirming that capital is genuinely leaving Bitcoin for alts instead of just lifting the whole market together. The third is expanding liquidity, often from central-bank rate cuts, because looser financial conditions push investors toward higher-risk, higher-beta assets, and altcoins are the highest-beta assets in crypto. The fourth is the Altcoin Season Index sustaining a move above roughly 40 to 50 with momentum, showing that outperformance is broadening instead of flickering.
The practical approach that follows from this is to watch the conditions converge instead of guessing a date. When three or more are present at once, the odds of rotation rise sharply. Until then, the index sitting in neutral is telling you plainly that this is not yet alt season, and the traders who override that signal to get in early are usually the ones left holding underperforming tokens while Bitcoin does the work.
The traps to avoid Alt season is where fortunes are made and lost, and the losses usually come from two predictable mistakes. The first is chasing it late. Because the index is reactionary, by the time it confirms an alt season above 75, the largest and easiest gains have already happened, and entering then means buying near the top of a fast-moving, overextended market. The window is typically two to five months, and the last stretch is the most dangerous, when the smallest and riskiest coins spike and then collapse hardest.
The second mistake is rotating prematurely, moving fully into altcoins before Bitcoin has confirmed a new high and led the cycle. Every past alt season was preceded by Bitcoin leading first, so rotating early means holding depreciating altcoins while Bitcoin outperforms, the opposite of the intended trade. The index sitting in Bitcoin season or neutral is an explicit signal that the rotation has not started, and ignoring it to position early is a common and expensive error.
The deeper trap is treating alt season as a guaranteed event rather than a probability. It is not an on-off switch that must flip in every cycle; it is a phase that depends on conditions, and those conditions can fail to line up, as 2026 shows. The disciplined approach is to track the index and dominance daily, watch for the trigger conditions to converge, and add altcoin exposure selectively and gradually once the signals confirm, instead of betting the portfolio on a rotation that the data has not yet endorsed.
Where the money rotates first If a rotation does begin, it does not lift every token at once, and knowing the order helps separate a real broadening from a narrow bounce. The sequence tends to follow the risk curve. Capital leaves Bitcoin first for the largest, most liquid altcoin, historically Ethereum, because it is the safest step out along the curve and the easiest for large money to enter. A sustained move in the ETH/BTC ratio is often read as the opening signal that rotation has started at the top of the market.
From there, money tends to move down the size ladder. After large-caps like Ethereum absorb the first wave, capital flows into mid-cap tokens with proven products and liquidity, then finally into small-cap and speculative names as risk appetite grows and traders chase higher percentage gains. This is why the late stage of an alt season is the wildest: the smallest and least proven coins move last and hardest, which is also why they fall the fastest when the phase ends. The order is a rough gauge of how far a rotation has traveled.
Sector leadership matters as much as size. In any given cycle, rotation concentrates in a few narratives instead of spreading evenly, and the leading sectors change from cycle to cycle. In 2026 the candidates most often cited include layer-two scaling networks, real-world asset tokenization, blockchain infrastructure for artificial intelligence, and blue-chip decentralized finance. Meme coins typically peak last and crash hardest, which makes their surge a late-stage signal more than an early one. Watching which sectors lead tells you what the market is actually rewarding, not just that alts are moving.
The selectivity point returns here with force. Because institutional capital favors tokens with fundamentals, liquidity, and regulatory standing, a modern rotation can lift a handful of quality names while thousands of microcaps stay flat, which looks nothing like the everything-pumps seasons of the past. A trader watching only a favorite microcap might conclude alt season never came, while large-cap and sector leaders quietly outperformed. Judging rotation by the leaders and the index, not by one held bag, gives a truer read.
The practical use of all this is sequencing your own attention. Track the ETH/BTC ratio for the first sign that money is stepping out of Bitcoin, watch whether strength broadens from large-caps into mid-caps as confirmation, and treat a frenzy in the smallest coins as a late-cycle warning instead of an invitation. Rotation is a process with an order, and reading that order is more useful than waiting for a single index number to flip.
Frequently Asked Questions What is alt season in crypto? Alt season, or altcoin season, is a sustained phase of the market cycle when most altcoins, meaning cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, significantly outperform Bitcoin. During one, many altcoins can double or triple while Bitcoin moves sideways or rises more slowly. It is defined by relative performance, altcoins gaining more than Bitcoin, and it produces some of the largest percentage returns of a cycle.
How is alt season measured? The main tool is the Altcoin Season Index, which tracks how many of the top 100 altcoins, excluding stablecoins, outperformed Bitcoin over the previous 90 days, scored from 0 to 100. Above 75 confirms an alt season, below 25 signals Bitcoin season, and 25 to 75 is neutral. Traders also watch Bitcoin dominance, since a sustained decline signals capital rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins.
What is Bitcoin dominance and why does it matter? Bitcoin dominance is Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization. High dominance means Bitcoin holds most of the market’s value; a falling reading means capital is shifting into altcoins. A sustained break below the mid-50s is often flagged as the threshold for a real, broad rotation. Dominance captures the flow of money, so it can reveal Bitcoin season even when altcoin prices are rising.
Why has alt season not arrived in 2026? Several factors have converged. Bitcoin is far below its record in a bearish drawdown, so the usual precondition of a fresh Bitcoin high has not been met. Dominance has stayed elevated. And the ETF wall keeps institutional money locked in Bitcoin through regulated funds instead of rotating into alts. Rotation that does occur is selective and narrative-driven instead of broad.
What is the ETF wall? The ETF wall describes how spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pull large institutional capital into Bitcoin but largely keep it there. Unlike past cycles where retail money moved freely from Bitcoin into thousands of altcoins, investors who gain exposure through a Bitcoin ETF tend to stay in Bitcoin rather than rotating into individual tokens. This partly blocks the channel that historically carried money into alts.
What would trigger an alt season? Analysts point to a set of conditions that, when several align, have preceded rotation: Bitcoin making a new high and consolidating, a sustained break in Bitcoin dominance below the mid-50s, expanding liquidity such as from rate cuts, and the Altcoin Season Index sustaining above roughly 40 to 50 with momentum. When three or more appear together, the odds of rotation within a quarter rise sharply.
Is the Altcoin Season Index a good timing tool? Only partly. The index is built on a trailing 90-day window, which makes it reactionary. By the time it confirms an alt season above 75, much of the move has already happened, so it describes where the market has been better than where it is going. It is useful for context, but relying on it to time entries usually means arriving late, after the easiest gains have passed.
What mistakes do traders make around alt season? The two most common are chasing it late, buying after the index confirms and the biggest gains are gone, and rotating prematurely, moving into altcoins before Bitcoin has led and confirmed a new high, which leaves them holding underperforming tokens while Bitcoin rises. A third is treating alt season as guaranteed rather than a conditional phase that can fail to arrive, as 2026 has shown.
Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and market cycles are unpredictable. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed professional before making financial decisions. Figures such as the Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin dominance are accurate as of July 1, 2026, and will change.
While Bitcoin experienced sharp declines in 2026, Jimmy Song, a Bitcoin Core developer and known maximalist, made important statements about BTC and altcoins.
At this point, Jimmy Song argued in his latest interview that Bitcoin is a better currency, not technology, and described all altcoins as scams.
Jimmy Song states that the biggest misconception about Bitcoin is viewing it simply as a technology.
He argues that Bitcoin should be understood not as a better technology, but as a better form of money.
Song, while having unwavering faith in Bitcoin, is vehemently critical of altcoins. He cites Ethereum and Solana as examples, expressing surprise at investors’ indifference to cyberattacks on projects like ETH and SOL. He argues that this attitude shows investors prefer gambling to making money.
Therefore, he claims that all altcoins, including ETH and SOL, are scams.
Despite the declines in Bitcoin, Song states that he still believes it has outperformed altcoins, and that BTC’s ultimate triumph will only be achieved when it becomes the world’s reserve currency.
Song also drew a parallel between the current state of artificial intelligence and Bitcoin’s GPU mining era between 2010 and 2012.
Song argues that the emergence of specialized chips similar to ASICs will significantly increase AI efficiency, and claims that the resources and capital currently concentrated in AI will eventually return to Bitcoin as the most reliable asset.
*This is not investment advice.
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Taiwan passed its first comprehensive crypto law, creating a licensing regime for virtual asset firms, establishing stablecoin rules, and imposing penalties of up to seven years in prison for unlicensed operations, as the island moves to formalize and expand its digital asset industry.
Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan approved the Virtual Asset Service Act in its third reading on Tuesday, the island’s first comprehensive framework for the crypto sector. Lawmakers sent the bill to President Lai Ching-te, who is expected to sign it into law within ten days.
The act establishes a licensing regime for all virtual asset service providers in Taiwan and hands broad oversight to the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC). Under the law, crypto businesses must secure FSC approval before operating in Taiwan. The framework covers seven categories of providers, including exchanges, trading platforms, transfer firms, custodians, underwriters and lending services.
The legislation creates Taiwan’s first stablecoin framework. Issuers must win approval from both the central bank and the FSC before releasing tokens. The law requires them to hold full reserves, place those reserves in trust, and submit to routine audits and public disclosures.
Domestic stablecoin issuance is restricted to banks, a measure that ties the emerging asset class to the country’s established financial institutions.
JUST IN: 🇹🇼 Taiwan's legislature passes law establishing a regulatory framework for the Bitcoin and crypto industry.
"We're officially entering a new era of digital finance." 🚀
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— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 1, 2026 7 years in prison for breaking the rules Penalties for breaking the rules are steep. Operating an unlicensed virtual asset service, or issuing a stablecoin without approval, can bring up to seven years in prison and fines that reach NT$100 million ($3.14 million).
Fraud and market manipulation carry sentences of three to ten years and fines between NT$10 million and NT$200 million ($314,000 to $6.28 million).
To ease the shift, the FSC set a transition window for firms that completed anti-money laundering registration before the law takes effect. Those companies get twelve months to file license applications and up to twenty-one months to obtain full approval. The FSC said it can extend the window by three months, a one-time option.
The vote positions Taiwan among a growing list of jurisdictions moving from patchwork guidance to a single statute. Kenya and Ghana signed virtual asset laws in recent months, and lawmakers across Asia continue to draft rules for exchanges and stablecoin issuers.
Taiwan’s approach pairs an open door for licensed operators with some of the region’s harsher criminal penalties, a balance regulators framed as a bid to protect investors without stifling the industry.
Taiwan’s embrace of bitcoin and crypto The passage builds on a broader shift in Taiwan’s stance toward digital assets. The government has disclosed holdings of 210 bitcoin valued near $18 million, and officials have floated plans to launch a strategic bitcoin reserve and study broader BTC regulation.
The new act gives that ambition a legal foundation, defining who may operate, under what conditions, and with what consequences for those who ignore the rules.
Micah Zimmerman
Micah first discovered Bitcoin in 2018 but remained a skeptic on the sidelines for too long. Since 2021, he has covered crypto and business and now works as a news reporter for Bitcoin Magazine, based in North Carolina.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that for Bitcoin’s price to stage a lasting recovery and firmly return to positive territory, more than $1 trillion in fresh institutional capital would be required. In his July 1 analysis, Ju shared on-chain data highlighting how the amount of capital needed to generate meaningful returns in each Bitcoin cycle has significantly increased over time.
Rising capital requirementsAccording to Ju’s data, a net inflow of $2.7 billion in 2011 coincided with a staggering 55,436% surge in Bitcoin’s price. In the current cycle, a capital influx of $697 billion has corresponded with a 689% price increase. To double Bitcoin’s price from current levels, approximately $101 billion in net inflow is now necessary—dramatically higher than the $5 million needed back in 2011.
Ki Young Ju emphasized that the next parabolic rally will require even deeper allocations to institutional portfolios, arguing that Bitcoin must establish itself as a core macro asset, rather than being relegated to ETF trading alone.
Ju added that if more than $1 trillion in new capital is injected into Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization, another major bull run remains possible. For context, he pointed out that gold’s market capitalization stands at around $27 trillion.
Glossary: “Realized market capitalization” refers to the total value of coins in circulation, calculated based on the price at which each coin last moved. This metric is frequently used to better understand the market’s aggregate cost basis.
PeriodNet inflowPrice increase2011$2.7 billion55,436%Current cycle$697 billion689%Net inflow required to double price today$101 billion2x price targetCapital flows shift toward AIFor now, the institutional capital that Ju deems necessary has not shifted toward Bitcoin. In recent weeks, as gold, silver, and Bitcoin all declined simultaneously, funds moving out of hedge positions have instead gravitated toward artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Some Bitcoin miners have also redirected computing power to AI hosting services, which offer more predictable revenue than the volatile mining business.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $58,800, over 45% below its October peak above $120,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen consistent outflows in recent weeks. According to SoSoValue data, total outflows on June 30 reached $222.64 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone registering $212.45 million in redemptions.
On-chain signals show mounting sell pressureOn-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr noted in his July 1 report that the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin inflows to exchanges has climbed to 122,000 BTC—52% higher than the roughly 80,000 BTC registered in February. The annual baseline stands at 82,000 BTC, with current values nearing the upper standard deviation band at 131,000 BTC.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which tracks whether coins are being moved at a profit or a loss, has been below the 1.0 breakeven mark on 37 out of the past 61 days. Adler pointed out that while February also saw similar loss-driven selling, exchange inflows were considerably lower at the time. This correction, he warned, features both higher volumes and more persistent stop-loss selling, amplifying downward pressure.
Axel Adler Jr. observed that the current downturn is more severe than February’s, as the market faces both heightened selling pressure and sustained loss-driven exits simultaneously.
Potential new buyer groupsAccording to Grayscale Research’s Zach Pandl, digital asset treasury companies have been the primary drivers of institutional demand in this cycle. For the next phase, he sees two additional groups as potential major buyers. Grayscale is a leading crypto asset management firm known for its digital asset investment products.
Pandl noted that the first group could be new investors who inherit a portion of the $110 trillion controlled by baby boomers and the silent generation in the coming decades. If just 2% of that wealth flows into crypto assets, it could create $2.2 trillion in new demand. The second group involves corporate treasuries outside the crypto ecosystem—Pandl cited SpaceX, whose 18,712 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $1.4 billion, could serve as a catalyst if the company goes public.
Despite this, there is currently no sign that either of these groups is buying at scale. With AI infrastructure continuing to attract record levels of capital allocation, the trillion-dollar influx that Bitcoin needs appears, for now, to be headed elsewhere.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
TL;DR
Shiba Inu entered Q3 with a major supply shift: investors withdrew 2.6 trillion SHIB from centralized exchanges after the token closed its worst Q2 on record with a 29.5% quarterly drop.XRP defended the $1 level at the Q2 close: buyers held the token above its key psychological support as the price bounced near the 3-month 23 EMA, preserving the broader bullish structure.Citi cut its Bitcoin forecast by 27%: the bank lowered its 12-month BTC target from $112,000 to $82,000, citing capital rotation from crypto into artificial intelligence.Bitcoin is stuck near critical support: BTC is trading close to $58,500 after its worst month in a year, with the $53,000–$58,000 zone now deciding whether Citi's bearish $53,000 scenario comes into play.The broader crypto market opens July defensively: ETF outflows, tighter Fed expectations, stalled U.S. crypto legislation and thin holiday liquidity leave traders exposed to sudden weekend moves.Investors withdrew 2.6 trillion SHIB from exchanges after the worst quarter in historyThe meme-cryptocurrency market closed the quarter with a major regrouping of forces. According to Arkham, on June 30, investors withdrew 2.6 trillion Shiba Inu (SHIB) tokens from centralized exchanges in a single move. This powerful on-chain outflow was the culmination of an entire month — for thirty days, major players had been systematically draining wallets on trading platforms such as Binance and Kraken.
The massive token withdrawal coincided with a historic low. According to CryptoRank statistics, Shiba Inu has just closed the worst second quarter in its history, with Q2 2026 ending in a -29.5% decline. In June alone, the token fell by 24%, dropping to the $0.000004194 level — SHIB has never had such a prolonged summer downtrend in all previous years.
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On-chain exchange flow for Shiba Inu (SHIB), Source: ArkhamThe only clear pattern behind this pre-Q3 exodus is historical cycles: for the last four years, from 2022 to 2026, July has always closed in positive territory for SHIB — for example, by +13.4% in 2022 and +8.92% in 2025. Moving assets to cold wallets right before July technically dries up exchange supply, reducing pressure on order books before the start of the new quarter.
Nevertheless, this token deficit is only an internal movement of capital. Whether it turns into a July rally, or whether the transfer of 2.6 trillion SHIB was just a routine technical reshuffling inside funds with no connection to growth expectations, will become clear in the coming weeks.
Rare macro trend saved XRP at the Q2 closeXRP buyers managed to defend the key psychological level of $1.00 at the most important moment — the close of Q2 2026. The June decline, triggered by a broader cooling of the crypto market, stopped around $1.01–$1.04 — exactly where the chart met a strong long-term support level that had been forming over the past several years.
The main protective factor for the asset was a rare macro trend. On the three-month (3M) chart by TradingView, it is clearly visible that the price landed precisely on the 23-period exponential moving average (23 EMA). This green indicator line acted like a reinforced-concrete barrier, as it protected the global uptrend and did not allow sellers to close the quarterly candle below the critical dollar mark.
3-month XRP price chart with moving averages attached, Source: TradingViewPanic among retail traders during the sell-off was offset by a restrained external backdrop and the cold calculation of major players. Some of the market pressure was eased by steady capital inflows into spot XRP ETFs and the long-awaited completion of important regulatory deadlines in the United States.
In particular, this refers to the California Digital Financial Assets Law (DFAL), which came into force on July 1, and for which Ripple adapted its custody services in time, reducing legal risks.
Holding the moving average at the Q2 close preserved the integrity of XRP's global bullish structure. The fact that the price held above $1.00 protected the market from automatic stop-order triggers, which otherwise could have set off a deep chain correction at the very start of July.
AI instead of crypto: Why Citigroup cut its Bitcoin forecast to $82,000American investment bank Citigroup revised its expectations for the cryptocurrency market, cutting its 12-month Bitcoin forecast from $112,000 to $82,000 and its Ether forecast from $3,175 to $2,240.
The main reason for such a significant revision of its models was the massive outflow of institutional capital into the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, which is now showing record returns and appears to be a more tangible growth driver for large investors.
Against this backdrop of rotation, Citi analysts completely reset their expectations for net inflows into spot ETFs over the next year, lowering the target from the previous $10 billion to zero. This is supported by stark market statistics: since the beginning of the current year, net outflows from Bitcoin funds have already exceeded $3.3 billion.
Citigroup updated base case for Bitcoin aligned with upper Bollinger Band on a weekly timeframe, Source: TradingView Additional pressure on the industry is coming from the prolonged political deadlock in the U.S. Senate, where the adoption of sector-specific legislation has stalled, as well as from growing risks that large corporate treasuries may begin selling their digital reserves to cover operating expenses.
Under its updated scenarios, Citi sees Bitcoin's base-case target at $82,000. However, if capital outflows from ETFs accelerate further, a severe bearish scenario could be triggered, sending the price down to $53,000.
Crypto market outlook: Break below the 200-week MA and ETF flight pin Bitcoin to supportThe crypto market is opening July in deep defense mode: fear is intensifying, capitalization is shrinking again, and Bitcoin is holding near a yearly low after its worst month in a year. Pressure is coming from three factors at once — record ETF outflows, a more hawkish Warsh-led Fed, and the failed momentum around the CLARITY Act.
Key checkpoints:
Bitcoin's trend breakdown: BTC is trading near $58,500, losing 2.2% over the past 24 hours and staying close to its yearly low of $58,190 after falling 20.5% in June. It also closed below the 200-week moving average (MA) for the first time since 2023.Regulatory split in the EU: The launch of MiCA on July 1 forced Binance, MEXC and Bitget to suspend part of their services in the European Union. The delisting of USDT affected the stability of $186 billion in capital. OKX, Backpack and Coinbase are introducing deposit bonuses to capture the freed-up share of the European market.Record ETF exhaustion: Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $4.5 billion in June — the worst month since the instrument launched in 2024. The main blow fell on BlackRock's IBIT, from which investors withdrew $3.55 billion.The Warsh Fed removes the macro driver: The first meeting under Kevin Warsh shifted market expectations toward tighter policy. The updated dot plot effectively removed the fast rate-cut scenario and left the crypto market without a key growth catalyst.Political deadlock around the CLARITY Act: The odds of the law passing in 2026 on Polymarket fell to 48%, down from 74% a month earlier. The reason is the breakdown of negotiations over ethics provisions. The next window for legislative progress will open only after senators return on July 13.Macro calendar and thin liquidity: On Thursday, July 2, the Non-Farm Payrolls report, the unemployment rate and Initial Jobless Claims will be the nearest test. The situation is worsened by the long weekend in the U.S. for Independence Day on July 4. The closure of traditional venues and the absence of U.S. market makers will sharply reduce order book depth, multiplying the risks of manipulation and cascading liquidations over the weekend. You Might Also Like
Winklevoss Twins are moving Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to Gemini crypto exchange, blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence flagged the transfers as selloffs by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH prices continue to remain under pressure.
Winklevoss Twins Are Dumping Bitcoin and Ethereum to Gemini Arkham Intelligence reported on July 1 that the Winklevoss Twins transferred $60 million in Bitcoin (BTC) to hot wallets associated with their Gemini crypto exchange. The blockchain analytics firm claimed that the move signals usual selling patterns.
The Winklevoss Twins have made about $1.7 billion in total Bitcoin profit since 2015. They still hold over $300 million in BTC.
In addition, they moved $7 million in Ethereum (ETH) to Gemini hot wallets from custody. These transfers come amid recent weakness in the broader crypto market. Also, it coincided with a significant drop in odds of the Clarity Act passing this year after President Trump disclosed $1.4 billion in crypto windfall.
Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss last transferred Bitcoin worth $67.5 million to hot wallets associated with their Gemini crypto exchange in June. They also transferred $130 million in March this year.
Winklevoss Twins Move Bitcoin and Ethereum to Gemini. Source: Arkham BTC and ETH Prices to Fall Deeper? Citigroup further lowered its 12-month price forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Citigroup cut Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000 and Ethereum price target from $3,175 to $2,240.
Bitcoin price tanked to a low of $57,747 over the past 24 hours and is currently trading near $58,600. Furthermore, trading volume has increased by 9% over the last 24 hours, but $4.5 billion in net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs in June kept investors at bay.
Analyst Ted Pillows said “Sellers are still dominating, while Coinbase Bitcoin Premium is at its lowest level this cycle.” If Bitcoin loses the $57,000-$58,000 zone, the price could drop deeper towards $50K.
Bitcoin Price in Daily Timeframe. Source: Ted Pillows Meanwhile, Ethereum price is trading 1% lower at $1,572. The intraday low and high are 1,549 and 1,600, respectively, with a further drop in trading volume over the past 24 hours.
Analyst Cheds Trading pointed out that Ethereum has made its lowest monthly close since 2023. Also, the monthly chart has formed Red Marubozu pattern, indicating bearish continuation.
Ethereum Monthly Price Chart. Source: Cheds Trading If you’re looking to buy the dip in the crypto market across both centralized and decentralized lending models, check out our Best Crypto Loan Platforms of 2026 recommendations list.
The cryptocurrency market trades under intense headwinds on Wednesday, led by Bitcoin’s (BTC) deepening sell-off below $60,000. The Crypto King hovers above $58,000.
Altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) are tracking Bitcoin’s downward momentum, with ETH confined to the $1,500–$1,600 range and XRP testing critical support at the $1.00 level.
Crypto sentiment remains fragile as capital outflows persistSentiment in the broader crypto market remains significantly subdued, as reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, which holds in Extreme Fear territory at 11 on Wednesday, down from 15 the previous day. Persistently weak risk appetite dampens demand for risk assets and constrains price movement across the market.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: AlternativeOutflows from US-listed Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) underscore waning institutional interest, with $223 million withdrawn on Tuesday alone. This marks the ninth consecutive day of net redemptions, reinforcing the ongoing bearish narrative.
Despite the outflows, cumulative inflows remain positive at $51.15 billion, while net assets under management average $70.95 billion.
Bitcoin ETF flows | Source: SoSoValueEthereum spot ETFs present a similar grim picture to BTC, with outflows totaling $28 million on Tuesday, down slightly from $30 million on Monday. According to SoSoValue, ETH ETF outflows have persisted for the ninth consecutive day, reflecting ongoing market caution.
Despite the current market headwinds, cumulative inflows hold steady at $10.85 billion, with total assets under management at $8.33 billion, signaling that conviction among long-term investors remains resilient.
Ethereum ETF flows | Source: SoSoValueInterest in XRP spot ETFs took a downturn, with nearly $3 million in outflows on Tuesday, after logging two consecutive days of notable inflows totaling $16 million on Friday and $15 million on Monday.
Cumulative inflows hold steady at $1.48 billion while net assets under management average $944 million, according to SoSoValue data. Appetite for XRP investment products has remained relatively steady despite the headwinds experienced in recent weeks.
XRP ETF flows | Source: SoSoValuePrice analysis: Bitcoin extends losses amid technical weaknessBitcoin trades at above $58,000, keeping a clear bearish bias as price sits well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly negative while both lines hover below the zero line on the daily chart, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds near 30, which together suggests persistent but somewhat fatigued downside momentum rather than an imminent bullish reversal.
BTC/USDT daily chartOn the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50-day EMA near $66,333, with further barriers at the 100-day EMA around $70,124 and the broken descending trendline region close to $75,348, before the broader bearish cap from the 200-day EMA at about $76,174. This is the first time Bitcoin has traded around the $58,000 psychological support since September 2024, underscoring the broader bearish outlook. Other key areas of interest for traders include $56,000 and $52,000, where investors may reengage to increase exposure.
Altcoins technical outlook: Ethereum and XRPEthereum trades at $1,575 maintaining a bearish near‑term bias as the spot price holds well below the key moving averages. The 50‑day EMA at roughly $1,814 sits as the nearest dynamic cap, with the 100‑day EMA around $1,994 and the 200‑day EMA near $2,286 reinforcing a broader downtrend structure.
The MACD histogram has inched into positive territory on the daily chart, hinting at a modest attempt to stabilize, but the RSI hovering in the mid‑30s suggests that rebounds are still occurring within a weak, corrective context rather than a sustained trend reversal.
ETH/USDT daily chartOn the topside, immediate resistance lies at the 50‑day EMA around $1,815. A daily close above this zone would be required to ease the current downside pressure and open the way toward the descending trendline resistance near $1,946. Beyond these barriers, the 100‑day EMA at about $1,994 and the 200‑day EMA close to $2,286 form successive hurdles that would need to be reclaimed to shift the medium‑term outlook back toward a constructive bias. Looking down, trading below the narrow range support at $1,500 could reinforce an extended bearish trend.
XRP trades at $1.04, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it sits well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs clustered from roughly $1.19 to $1.52. The long-standing descending resistance trendline, with a break price around $1.23, continues to cap the broader structure, while the RSI hovering near 33 on the daily chart hints at lingering weak momentum rather than a decisive oversold rebound.
The MACD histogram holds just below zero with a marginally negative reading, suggesting downside pressure is fading but not yet reversed.
XRP/USDT daily chartOn the topside, initial resistance lies at the 50-day EMA near $1.19, with the trendline break area around $1.23 acting as the next barrier if buyers attempt a recovery. Above that, the 100-day EMA around $1.30 forms a more substantial cap, ahead of the 200-day EMA near $1.52, which defines the upper boundary of the broader bearish regime. Conversely, price action below the current area at $1.04 will be driven by whether sellers can extend the current slide or if oversold conditions entice a corrective bounce back toward those overhead EMAs. The next psychological support lies at $1.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Crypto ETF FAQs An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.
The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.
Citi slashes 12-month bitcoin, ether targets as ETF flows dry up. (Pixabay)Summary
Citi cut its BTC target to $82,000 from $112,000 and ETH target to $2,240 from $3,175. The bank now expects zero net ETF inflows over the next 12 months, versus previous forecasts for fresh demand. Stalled U.S. legislation, weak market sentiment and concerns over digital asset treasury selling have outweighed supportive macro conditions.Wall Street bank Citi cut its 12-month price targets for bitcoin BTC$59,720.20 and ether (ETH), citing a collapse in exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand and diminishing prospects for U.S. crypto legislation to revive investor interest.
The bank lowered its base-case forecast for bitcoin to $82,000 from $112,000 and cut its ether target to $2,240 from $3,175. It now assumes no net ETF inflows over the next year, abandoning an earlier expectation that regulatory progress would drive fresh institutional allocations.
Bitcoin was trading around $58,400 at publication time, ether at $1,570.
"The absence of a catalyst for increased investor interest means we reduce our base-case flow expectations to zero over the next 12m," wrote analyst Alex Saunders in a Tuesday report.
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund demand has weakened sharply in recent months, removing what has been the crypto market's biggest source of institutional buying since the funds launched in 2024. The ETFs recorded a record $4 billion in net outflows in June, the largest monthly withdrawal on record, after a 13-day redemption streak pushed year-to-date flows into negative territory for the first time.
The downgrade marks a sharp reversal from Citi's previous outlook, which assumed passage of U.S. digital asset market structure legislation would spur adoption among financial advisors and traditional investors. The bank now believes that timeline has slipped, leaving the market without a meaningful catalyst.
Saunders said ETF flows continue to be the main force behind crypto prices, with recent demand turning negative as investors pulled back from risk.
According to the bank's analyst, sentiment has also been hurt by concerns that digital asset treasury (DAT) companies could become net sellers of bitcoin. Recent corporate actions by Strategy amplified those fears despite involving relatively modest BTC sales.
The report noted that bitcoin and ether both remain below key technical levels, including their 200-day moving averages, while speculative capital has shifted toward AI-related investments.
The bank's revised forecasts assume flat ETF flows in its base case. In its bull case, stronger retail and institutional adoption lifts bitcoin to $108,000 and ether to $2,932. Its bear case, based on recessionary macro conditions and continued ETF outflows, sees BTC falling to $53,000 and ETH to $1,094.
While the bank's equity strategists have become more constructive on U.S. stocks, providing some support through crypto's equity correlation, the report said that positive macro factors are insufficient to offset weakening flows.
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
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Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Jun 30, 2026
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Why it matters:
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
CSWAP has highlighted a new integration aimed at simplifying how Bitcoin holders can participate in decentralized finance on the Cardano network.
The update follows an announcement from BTC Karma, CSWAP’s Bitcoin-native DeFi protocol, confirming support for the Phantom Wallet. With the integration now live, Bitcoin users can connect their Phantom wallets directly to BTC Karma and stake BTC in just a few clicks.
According to BTC Karma, the new wallet support removes onboarding friction and creates a more straightforward path for Bitcoin holders seeking yield opportunities through decentralized finance applications.
CSWAP Positions Wallet Expansion as a Liquidity Gateway Following the announcement, CSWAP emphasized the broader importance of the integration for the Cardano ecosystem.
The protocol noted that every additional wallet it supports lowers the barriers that prevent Bitcoin liquidity from flowing into Cardano-based applications. Consequently, the addition of Phantom support marks another step toward attracting the next generation of Bitcoin DeFi users.
“Every wallet we support makes it easier for Bitcoin liquidity to enter the Cardano ecosystem,” CSWAP remarked.
CSWAP CEO Hints at More Integrations Reacting to the launch, CSWAP founder and CEO Jon Kravetz reiterated the team’s commitment to expanding BTC Karma’s reach across additional wallets and user communities.
He described the Phantom integration as part of a broader effort to extend the BTC Karma ecosystem across the cryptocurrency industry. Furthermore, Kravetz hinted that the team is already developing additional integrations, signaling plans to continue lowering entry barriers for Bitcoin holders interested in Cardano’s DeFi opportunities.
Just added @phantom wallet support on @btc_karma.
We're spreading good $KARMA far and wide.
We're turning bitcoin…in to productive capital one wallet at a time. (There's more coming!) https://t.co/npV7lJoNyQ
— Jon Kravetz (@CSWAP_Destroy) June 30, 2026
For context, BTC Karma is widely regarded as the first Bitcoin-native DeFi protocol operating directly on the Cardano mainnet. The platform serves as a bridge, allowing Bitcoin holders to earn yield and receive new tokens while participating in the Cardano ecosystem.
Notably, the protocol’s design aligns closely with Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson’s vision of bringing idle Bitcoin capital into the ADA ecosystem. Hoskinson argued that Cardano can unlock more than $2 trillion in Bitcoin DeFi opportunities, stressing that the network has a strong chance of becoming a major player in the emerging sector.
Cardano Continues to Expand Its Bitcoin DeFi Ambitions Meanwhile, Cardano continues to advance its broader DeFi strategy through several processes, including Bitcoin integration initiatives.
Earlier this year, Fluid Tokens completed the first atomic swap between Bitcoin and Cardano, demonstrating growing interoperability between the two networks. In addition, Cardano previously introduced its first Bitcoin DeFi protocol, Cardinal, which allows BTC holders to bridge and stake their assets without selling them.
Hoskinson also revealed plans earlier this year to launch a one-click Bitcoin yield system on Cardano before year-end. However, the project has yet to provide an update on its progress.
In the meantime, competition in the Bitcoin DeFi sector continues to intensify, with rivals such as Flare arguing that they are better positioned to lead the race for Bitcoin-based decentralized finance.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
BTC bears remain in charge as the asset briefly tumbled to $58,000.
June was brutal for the primary cryptocurrency, with its price crashing about 20% over the month. And even though July is usually a strong period for BTC, this one kicked off poorly, and the asset continues to trade well below $60,000.
Several altcoins have mimicked the move, posting additional losses, while Cardano (ADA) is among the few daily gainers.
BTC Under Pressure The asset has been in a steep decline lately, driven by several key factors, including the prolonged bear market affecting the entire crypto sector, waning interest from institutional investors, uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, and more.
Yesterday (June 30), BTC tried to reclaim the psychological level of $60,000, but the bulls quickly lost control, and the price started another downturn. As of this moment, it trades at around $58,900 (per TradingView), representing a 1.5% decline on a daily scale.
BTC Price, Source: TradingView July has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, and we have yet to see whether it could deliver a long-awaited revival in the weeks ahead. At the same time, many bearish signals point out to the possibility of a further pullback, while analysts believe the cycle’s bottom has not arrived yet.
Following the latest price slump, BTC’s market capitalization has dropped to approximately $1.18 billion, while its dominance over altcoins remains over 56% on CG.
ADA Re-Enters the Top 20 Club Many alternative coins have followed BTC’s footsteps, registering mild declines over the last 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) is down 0.5% for the day, whereas Hyperliquid (HYPE) has lost 2% of its valuation. LAB (LAB) is the worst-performing cryptocurrency from the top 100 list, posting a loss of 27%, with Audiera (BEAT) coming next at -7%.
You may also like: Bitcoin Whales Are Dumping: But This Rare Signal Says the Bottom May Be Close Bitcoin Bulls Fight for $60K as Markets Digest US-Iran News (Market Watch) Bitcoin Could Fall Into the $40,000s Before Bottoming: Bitfinex Analysts Still, some have defied the bearish conditions. Cardano’s ADA has risen by 4% and reclaimed $0.15. Its market cap surged past $5.6 billion, meaning the token is once again among crypto’s 20 largest cryptocurrencies.
Other altcoins flashing in green today (July 1) include WBT (+15%), JPT (+13%), XLM (+12%), CC (+5%), and more. The total crypto market capitalization has remained rather unchanged at around $2.1 trillion.
Cryptocurrency Market Overview July 1; Source: QuantifyCrypto Tags:
Cardano appears to be breaking out against Bitcoin, as its price has considerably outperformed the apex cryptocurrency in the past few days.
Cardano (ADA) is having a good start to July, bouncing 4% already today to reclaim $0.150. This is a positive sign considering the altcoin dumped 38% in June, its worst monthly performance since November 2018.
The uptick comes after days of consolidation at a key support level around $0.140. This rebound against the USD pair and its recent performance against Bitcoin is beginning to look like the start of a sustained move to higher prices.
ADA/BTC Chart Turns Bullish The daily ADA/BTC chart shows a clear disparity between the two assets’ price trends in the past few days. While Bitcoin has trended lower, Cardano has gained strength and moved in the opposite direction.
Over the past three days, ADA has gained against Bitcoin. After a mild 0.41% increase on Monday, the ADA/BTC pair rose by 1.65% on Tuesday and an impressive 3.66% so far today. This price trend is reflected in the 4% Cardano rise and nearly 1% Bitcoin drop in the past 24 hours.
ADA/BTC Breaking Out Typically, Bitcoin controls the mood of the broader crypto market. Its drop or increase has a ripple effect on altcoins, forcing them to follow its trend in most cases.
As such, the Cardano breakout against BTC is significant. It suggests that ADA could continue to gain strength regardless of Bitcoin’s trend. This could see the altcoin target higher prices if momentum sustains, even if the broader market is bearishly biased.
Resistance Levels Ahead However, the ADA/BTC pair has clear resistance levels ahead. Currently at 0.00000255, it trades exactly at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This dynamic supply zone forced the pair lower in early June, following the rejection at 0.00000325.
How ADA/BTC reacts around this EMA would determine its next direction. A sustained trend above this level would confirm the breakout, while a rejection would form another lower high and kickstart another leg down.
Higher EMAs like the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day are at 0.00000279, 0.00000310, and 0.00000369, respectively. They are also areas of interest if the upward momentum endures.
Cardano Volume Spikes 60% as Momentum Returns Following the rally to reclaim $0.150, trading activity has increased 60% over the past 24 hours to $471.3 million, signaling growing market participation.
Open interest has also improved 1.43% to $371 million, showing emerging derivative interest. The slight uptick in OI shows that the recent increase is not derivative-driven but rather the momentum from dip-buying among spot traders.
Cardano Derivative Data/Coinglass Coinglass’s Cardano spot flows activity confirms this. Over the past 24 hours, exchange outflows have surpassed inflows, with the former at $29.13 million and the latter at $28.55 million.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
Standard Chartered has initiated coverage of Morpho (MORPHO) with a $60 price target for the end of 2030. The call implies close to 30x upside and extends the bank’s widening bet on decentralized finance (DeFi).
The forecast would see Morpho outperform both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) through 2030. It adds the token to a lineup that already includes Aave (AAVE).
MORPHO Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoStandard Chartered’s Path to $60 MORPHO PriceMorpho trades near $2.05, up by over 10% on the day the report landed, according to BeInCrypto data. The token ranks 57th by market value.
Analyst Geoff Kendrick, who leads digital assets research at Standard Chartered, mapped a yearly path to the target. He sees MORPHO at $3.50 in 2026, $11 in 2027, $22 in 2028, $40 in 2029, and $60 in 2030.
The report framed the move as a 33x gain from a lower price when it published this month. From MORPHO’s current level, the target implies closer to 30x.
Standard Chartered initiates Morpho coverage with a $60 price target by the end of 2030.The projection follows a run of long-dated forecasts, including the bank’s move to cut its Ethereum target last month. Standard Chartered issued a comparable 50x Aave price forecast weeks earlier.
Why Standard Chartered Backs MorphoMorpho is the second-largest DeFi lending protocol behind Aave. Together the two control 57% of deposits and 63% of active loans across lending protocols.
Top DeFi Lending Protocols. Source: DefiLlama “Morpho is part on-chain bank, part infrastructure for on-chain banks and asset managers.”
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The bank splits Morpho into two parts:
Morpho Markets works like Aave Morpho Vaults act as infrastructure for on-chain asset managers, or curators. Standard Chartered calls the vaults business the differentiator that can pull large traditional finance (TradFi) funds on-chain.
The bank expects DeFi assets to grow 37 times by 2030, and wants Morpho to scale with that flow.
Morpho holds about $9.8 billion in deposits today. Custody platforms including Fireblocks, Anchorage, and Taurus have wired its vaults into their systems.
Morpho TVL. Source: DefiLlamaMorpho’s balance sheet supports the case. Its developer, Morpho Labs, recently closed a $175 million funding round that valued the protocol at $2 billion.
Still, the target hinges on Morpho building deep TradFi relationships, and Standard Chartered warns that growth could arrive in lumps.
That uncertainty sits at the center of every long-term Morpho forecast. The next few quarters should test how fast institutional money moves.
US-listed Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows during June 2026. This was the worst monthly figure since the products launched in January 2024.
The redemptions coincided with a sharp price decline. Bitcoin fell 20.48% over the month, its steepest monthly drop since June 2022, when the asset shed 37.28% during that cycle’s collapse.
IBIT Leads the Institutional RetreatJune’s outflows broke the previous monthly record of $3.56 billion, set in February 2025 during an earlier stretch of market stress.
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Bitcoin ETF Monthly Flows. Source: SoSoValueBlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for the bulk of the outflows. The fund alone shed $3.55 billion, close to 79% of the category’s total redemptions.
That concentration is striking. IBIT’s single-fund outflow nearly matched the entire category’s prior monthly record on its own.
The price data reinforces the pressure. Bitcoin closed four of 2026’s first six months in negative territory, with June’s 20.48% decline the deepest of the year.
How Crypto ETFs Performed in June 2026The weakness extended beyond Bitcoin, though the scale varied across categories. Ethereum (ETH) ETFs posted $528.99 million in June outflows, SoSoValue data showed.
Solana (SOL) ETFs recorded net outflows of roughly $786,580. The figure is small, but it marks the first monthly outflow for Solana ETFs since their launch, ending a run of positive months.
Top Crypto ETFs Performance in June. Source: BeInCryptoNot every category turned negative. XRP (XRP) ETFs drew $59.46 million in net inflows during June, holding positive despite the broader downturn.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) ETFs led the group with $161.05 million in inflows, the strongest June showing across the products.
The split suggests capital rotated within crypto rather than exiting entirely. Newer altcoin products absorbed fresh money even as the two largest categories saw sustained redemptions.
Whether that rotation hardens will depend on how Bitcoin trades in July, since a price rebound could pull capital back toward the incumbents.
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Bitcoin briefly slipped to $57,800.19 on July 1, 2026, its lowest level in weeks, before recovering to trade at $58,904.32 as the new month opens with the same pressure that defined June’s final days. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 11, a fresh cycle low that erases the marginal recovery seen at the end of June, when the gauge briefly ticked up to 15. Sentiment has now spent more than a week locked in Extreme Fear, and today’s intraday breakdown below $58,000 confirms the correction hasn’t found a durable floor yet. The defining story remains the same divergence that shaped June’s final days: Solana continues to outperform, up 8.43% on the week, while Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, BNB, and TRON all remain in negative territory.
Key Takeaways Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $57,800.19 before recovering to $58,904.32, down 0.11% on the 12:00 hourly candle Fear & Greed Index falls to 11 (Extreme Fear), down from 15 yesterday and 17 last week — the lowest reading of the current cycle Solana is the standout performer: +8.43% weekly, the only top-10 asset with strong positive momentum Ethereum down 5.28% weekly to $1,579.45, holding up slightly better than Bitcoin on a relative basis XRP, BNB, and TRON all posted weekly losses between 4.3% and 4.9%, tracking the broader market decline Crypto Market Snapshot — July 1, 2026 AssetPrice24h7dMarket CapVolume (24h)Bitcoin (BTC)$58,904.32-0.11%-5.98%$1.18T$33.74BEthereum (ETH)$1,579.45-0.30%-5.28%$190.61B$9.83BTether (USDT)$0.9987+0.03%+0.01%$184.43B$68.02BBNB$546.18-0.60%-5.24%$73.61B$1.18BUSDC$0.9997+0.01%+0.01%$73.33B$12.78BXRP$1.04+0.16%-4.91%$65.03B$1.59BSolana (SOL)$75.12+2.04%+8.43%$43.63B$3.18BTRON (TRX)$0.3159-0.74%-4.31%$29.96B$641.67MHyperliquid (HYPE)$63.62-1.04%+2.08%$16.09B$556.29MDogecoin (DOGE)$0.07111-0.37%-10.00%$12.13B$834.8M Fear & Greed at 11: A Fresh Cycle Low The Fear & Greed Index printed 11 today, dropping below the previous cycle low of 12 set on June 29 and reversing the brief uptick to 15 seen just yesterday. The trajectory over the past month tells the story: last month the index read 29 (Fear), last week 17 (Extreme Fear), and now 11 — the deepest Extreme Fear reading of the entire 2026 correction. This marks the first time in the cycle that sentiment has failed to build on a recovery attempt, suggesting traders remain unwilling to add risk even as prices stabilize in familiar ranges. Sustained readings this low have historically preceded relief rallies, though the timing of any reversal remains uncertain.
Bitcoin: Breaks Below $58,000 Before Recovering Bitcoin fell as low as $57,800.19 in intraday trading on July 1 — its weakest level since the May cycle low — before buyers stepped in to push price back to $58,904.32. The 24-hour range spanned $57,800.19 to $59,457.00, reflecting the sharp volatility that has characterized the past several sessions. The broader 1-week chart shows BTC opening above $60,900 on June 26, grinding lower through a choppy mid-week stretch, breaking down sharply below $58,500 on June 30, and now testing that low again on July 1 before a modest bounce. The 7-day moving average has now crossed below the 25-day and 99-day averages, a bearish technical signal that reflects the accelerating short-term downtrend. 24-hour volume reached 21,429 BTC (roughly $1.26 billion), consistent with active repositioning rather than a single directional catalyst. With price briefly breaching $58,000, BTC has now moved closer to a retest of its May 2026 cycle low of $59,130 than at any other point since that low was set. For continuous updates, see our Bitcoin news today page.
Solana: The Only Top-10 Asset in Positive Weekly Territory Solana remains the clear leader among major assets, gaining 8.43% over the past week to $75.12, with a further 2.04% gain over the last 24 hours alone. The 1-week chart shows a powerful recovery structure — SOL bottomed near $69 in late June before staging a sustained climb through $72 and $74, closing the week above $75. Volume reached $3.18 billion, confirming genuine participation behind the move rather than thin trading. Solana’s relative strength continues to outpace Bitcoin and Ethereum by a wide margin, positioning it as the standout story of the current correction cycle.
Ethereum: Holding Above $1,575 Despite Broader Weakness Ethereum is down 5.28% over the past week to $1,579.45, a decline roughly in line with Bitcoin’s but occurring against a backdrop of persistent spot ETF outflow headlines and ongoing scrutiny of the Ethereum Foundation’s restructuring. Volume of $9.83 billion suggests the market continues to actively reprice the asset rather than sitting on the sidelines. The key level to watch heading deeper into July is whether ETH can build a stable base above $1,550. For daily coverage, see our Ethereum news today tracker.
XRP, BNB, and TRON Track the Broader Decline XRP, BNB, and TRON posted comparable weekly losses of 4.91%, 5.24%, and 4.31% respectively, tracking the broader market pullback rather than showing any asset-specific catalyst. XRP trades at $1.04 with the CLARITY Act still awaiting Senate action following its recess. BNB sits at $546.18, while TRON continues to hold up marginally better than its large-cap peers at $0.3159, consistent with its typically defensive profile during broad drawdowns.
Dogecoin: Weakest Performer in the Top 10 Dogecoin remains the clear underperformer among major assets, down 10.00% over the past week to $0.07111 — nearly double the decline of the next-weakest asset. With no underlying utility catalyst, DOGE continues to function as the purest sentiment proxy in the top 10, and its outsized weekly loss reflects just how compressed risk appetite has become during the depths of Extreme Fear.
What August Inherits From July’s Opening Day July opens with sentiment at its lowest point of the entire 2026 correction cycle, and Bitcoin’s brief break below $58,000 shows the pressure hasn’t fully released even as Solana continues to demonstrate that idiosyncratic strength is possible within a broadly bearish macro backdrop. The path forward into July will likely hinge on three factors: whether the Fear & Greed Index can build on any recovery attempt without immediately reversing, whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $59,000 zone on a sustained basis after today’s dip toward $57,800, and whether Ethereum’s relative resilience this week marks the start of a genuine bottoming process.
Compare Crypto Prices Today Bitcoin Price Ethereum Price XRP Price Solana Price BNB Price TRON Price Where to Buy Binance — largest global exchange by trading volume, wide asset selection Coinbase — beginner-friendly, strong regulatory compliance in the US Kraken — established security track record, robust fiat on-ramps KuCoin — deep altcoin listings Gate.io — wide range of trading pairs OKX — advanced trading tools and derivatives For long-term holders, self-custody via a hardware wallet is recommended over keeping large balances on exchanges.
FAQ Why did Bitcoin drop to $57,800 today? Bitcoin briefly fell to an intraday low of $57,800.19 during heightened volatility as the Fear & Greed Index hit a cycle low of 11, before recovering to trade near $58,900.
What is the Fear & Greed Index reading today? The index reads 11, classified as Extreme Fear, down from 15 yesterday and 17 last week — the lowest reading of the entire 2026 correction cycle.
Which cryptocurrency is performing best this week? Solana is the top performer among major assets, up 8.43% over the past seven days, while most other top-10 coins remain in negative territory.
Is Dogecoin still falling? Yes. Dogecoin is down 10.00% over the past week, making it the weakest performer among major cryptocurrencies during the current correction.
Here is a story that got buried under all the Bitcoin doom this week, and it is a genuinely exciting one. While everyone was watching Bitcoin slide below $60,000, Wall Street and the world’s biggest payment companies were quietly moving billions of dollars onto one network: Solana. And SOL is showing it, sitting at $74.77, up 6.5% on the week, the only major coin in the green while everything else bleeds (live SOL price on CoinGecko). Let me tell you what is actually happening here, because it is a big deal.
The quiet takeover A new report from crypto research firm Messari laid it out plainly: Wall Street and payment giants are quietly taking over Solana, moving billions onto the network for tokenized funds and global payments, even as the broader crypto market cools. Read that again. While the market panics about price, serious institutions are building on Solana in the background.
This is the kind of thing that matters far more over time than any weekly candle. When the market is fearful and prices are down, that is exactly when you find out who is building for real. Right now, the answer is that major financial and payment players are choosing Solana, and they are not doing it for a quick trade. They are moving infrastructure and real money onto the network. That is conviction, and it is showing up in SOL’s price strength this week.
The numbers behind the strength So what is actually driving this? Some genuinely impressive, specific data.
Start with tokenized stocks, real equities represented on-chain. Solana absolutely dominates this sector, capturing an overwhelming 95% of tokenized equity trading volume across all blockchains, amounting to a record $1.29 billion. When it comes to bringing traditional stocks onto a blockchain, Solana is not just winning, it is the whole game. That is one of crypto’s most promising real-world use cases, and Solana owns it.
Then there is the parade of adoption. MoneyGram became a Solana validator, running network infrastructure. South Korea’s KG Group picked Solana for a digital asset payments push. The World Series of Poker integrated Solana payments for tournament buy-ins. Morgan Stanley amended its Solana ETF filings to reveal record-low 0.14% fees, potentially the cheapest crypto ETFs anywhere. And Moody’s launched credit ratings for Solana tokenized assets, a serious step toward institutional adoption. Every one of these is a real company choosing Solana.
The ETF and tech backbone On top of the adoption wave, the structural stuff keeps working in Solana’s favor. Solana’s spot ETFs launched with staking enabled, passing yield to investors, something Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs simply cannot offer. In a market where money is fleeing non-yielding products, an ETF that actually pays a yield stands out, and CoinShares data shows investors rotating into SOL and XRP products while Bitcoin and Ethereum funds saw heavy outflows.
And the technology keeps advancing. The Alpenglow consensus overhaul is live on a test cluster, pushing toward dramatically faster finality, and the Firedancer engine from Jump Crypto keeps progressing toward better speed and reliability. The network handled over 103 million transactions daily with millions of active users. The usage is real, and it is growing while the price of everything else falls.
Now the honest part I am genuinely excited about Solana, but I owe you the balance. SOL being green this week does not make it bulletproof. It is still part of a crypto market having a rough stretch, and if Bitcoin cascades toward the $54,000 to $56,000 zone that some analysts warn about, Solana would very likely get pulled down with it. Relative strength is not immunity, and SOL is testing resistance near $78 that it has struggled to break, with risk of a pullback toward $63 if the breakout fails.
There is also the reminder that some of Solana’s activity is speculative and can cool quickly. So enjoy this genuine momentum, but stay grounded. The institutional adoption is real and encouraging; the macro storm has not fully passed.
The levels worth watching On the downside, $70 is the first support, with the $66 to $67 zone beneath it. Staying above $70 keeps this leadership story alive. On the upside, the big test is $78, the resistance SOL is pressing against now. Clear it convincingly and the path toward $85 opens up. A failure there risks a retreat toward $63.
Bringing it together Solana at $74.77 is the standout of the market, the only major coin in the green this week, and for a genuinely good reason: Wall Street and payment giants are quietly moving billions onto the network while everyone else watches Bitcoin fall. Between 95% dominance in tokenized stocks, a parade of institutional adoption from MoneyGram to Morgan Stanley to Moody’s, staking-enabled ETFs drawing flows, and the Alpenglow and Firedancer upgrades advancing, SOL has real, specific reasons for its strength.
Just stay grounded. Solana is leading, not escaping, and a deeper Bitcoin drop would test the $78 resistance and the $70 support. But if you have been searching for a real reason for optimism in a grim market, a network that Wall Street is quietly taking over is about as good as it gets. Watch $78 above and $70 below, and enjoy this rare and well-earned patch of green.
FAQ What is the Solana price today?
Solana is trading at $74.77 on July 1, 2026, up 6.5% on the week, making it the only major coin in the green while Bitcoin trades below $60,000 and most of the market falls.
Why is Solana outperforming other coins?
A Messari report shows Wall Street and payment giants quietly moving billions onto Solana for tokenized funds and payments. Solana also dominates tokenized stock trading with 95% market share, and has drawn adoption from MoneyGram, Morgan Stanley, KG Group, and Moody’s.
What is Solana’s tokenized stock dominance?
Solana captured 95% of tokenized equity trading volume across all blockchains, a record $1.29 billion. Tokenized stocks bring real equities on-chain, one of crypto’s most promising use cases, and Solana leads the sector overwhelmingly.
What are the key Solana levels to watch?
Support is $70, with the $66 to $67 zone below it. The key resistance is $78, which SOL is pressing against. Clearing it opens the path toward $85, while a failure risks a retreat toward $63.
Is Solana safe from the broader crash?
No. Solana is outperforming but still part of a weak market, and a deeper Bitcoin drop toward $54,000 to $56,000 would likely pull it lower. It is also testing resistance at $78 with pullback risk. Relative strength is not immunity. This is not investment advice.
This is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile. Always do your own research.
The crypto market is deep in a correction, with Bitcoin below $60,000 and most major coins down on the week. But that is exactly when smart investors go hunting for value, and a handful of coins are bucking the downtrend with real strength. This guide covers 10 of the best cryptocurrencies to watch in July 2026, from blue chips to this week’s biggest gainers, with the honest case and risks for each. No hype, just the data.
How to think about “best crypto to buy” Before the list, a reality check. There is no single best crypto to buy, and anyone promising guaranteed returns is selling something. The market is volatile, especially now with a hawkish Fed and Bitcoin near its 2024 lows. What follows is not a set of guaranteed winners. It is a look at coins with strong fundamentals, real momentum, and different risk-reward profiles, so you can match them to your own strategy. Always do your own research, and note that coins showing big weekly gains can reverse just as fast.
1. Bitcoin (BTC): the foundation Bitcoin trades near $58,800, down about 6% on the week and testing its 2024 lows. It remains the lowest-risk crypto choice and the default institutional pick. The case: fixed 21 million supply, the strongest “digital gold” narrative, and spot ETFs. The risk: a $4.4 billion supply overhang and faded ETF demand could push it lower before recovering, with some analysts eyeing $54,000 to $56,000. For most investors, Bitcoin is the core holding to accumulate on weakness rather than chase.
2. Solana (SOL): the standout performer Solana trades near $75, up about 8.5% on the week, the strongest major coin by a wide margin. The case is compelling right now: a Messari report shows Wall Street and payment giants quietly moving billions onto Solana, it dominates tokenized stock trading with 95% market share, and its spot ETFs uniquely offer staking yield. MoneyGram, Morgan Stanley, and Moody’s have all engaged with the network recently. The risk: it is testing resistance near $78 with pullback potential, and remains high-beta. Solana is the momentum leader of this market.
3. Ethereum (ETH): the deep-value blue chip Ethereum trades near $1,577, down about 6% on the week and deeply discounted more than 50% below its 2025 high. The case: it is the leading smart-contract platform, with staking yield of roughly 2.8% to 3.5%, treasury accumulation continuing, and the Glamsterdam upgrade coming in 2026. Several analysts expect ETH to outperform Bitcoin through 2030. The risk: higher volatility and Layer 2 networks diverting fee revenue. Ethereum suits those wanting blue-chip exposure at a steep discount.
4. Aave (AAVE): the DeFi leader on the move Aave trades near $87, up about 21.6% on the week, one of the strongest performers among established names. The case: Aave is one of DeFi’s blue-chip lending protocols, and its founder recently hinted at token buybacks under a new framework, which lit a fire under the token. Real usage and a buyback catalyst make it stand out. The risk: DeFi tokens are volatile and sensitive to the broader market. Aave is a bet on the DeFi sector’s leader with a fresh catalyst.
5. XRP: the regulatory-clarity play XRP trades near $1.04, down about 5% on the week, holding above $1. The case: improving regulatory clarity through the pending CLARITY Act, spot ETFs with sustained inflows, Ripple’s DTCC tokenization role, and a 72% jump in network activity over two weeks. The risk: it remains sensitive to regulatory outcomes, with the CLARITY Act stalled until a July 17 hearing. XRP suits investors who believe in its institutional payments thesis.
6. Jupiter (JUP): the Solana ecosystem bet Jupiter trades near $0.23, up about 7.5% on the week, riding Solana’s ecosystem strength. The case: Jupiter is a leading decentralized exchange aggregator on Solana, directly benefiting from the surge in Solana activity and tokenized trading. When the Solana ecosystem leads, tokens like JUP often outperform. The risk: it is a smaller-cap altcoin with higher volatility and depends heavily on Solana’s momentum continuing. Jupiter is a higher-risk way to play Solana’s ecosystem growth.
7. Stellar (XLM): the payments veteran Stellar trades near $0.20, up about 4.8% on the week, showing relative strength. The case: Stellar is an established cross-border payments network, often mentioned alongside XRP as a beneficiary of regulatory clarity and real-world payment adoption. It has a long track record and institutional partnerships. The risk: it faces stiff competition in the payments space and has struggled to sustain rallies historically. Stellar suits those wanting a payments-focused altcoin with a proven network.
8. BNB: the exchange-backed token BNB trades near $546, down about 5% on the week but historically resilient. The case: BNB has real utility (fee discounts and BNB Chain activity), regular token burns that shrink supply, and the recent Maxwell upgrade improving the network. The risk: it is tightly tied to Binance’s regulatory standing, with a looming EU MiCA license rejection as a current concern. BNB suits those wanting an established utility token with a large ecosystem.
9. Kaspa (KAS): the proof-of-work upstart Kaspa trades near $0.031, up about 8% on the week, quietly outperforming. The case: Kaspa uses a novel proof-of-work architecture (the BlockDAG) that aims for fast, scalable transactions, and it has built a dedicated community. Its steady weekly gain during a down market shows relative strength. The risk: it is a smaller-cap coin with higher volatility and less institutional backing than the majors. Kaspa is a higher-risk bet on a technically differentiated proof-of-work project.
10. This week’s momentum names: Velvet, Morpho, and more For higher-risk, higher-reward watchers, several smaller names posted big weekly gains: Velvet (VELVET) surged over 240% on the week, and Morpho (MORPHO), a DeFi lending protocol, rose about 18%. The case: these show where speculative momentum is flowing, and early movers can see outsized gains. The risk is substantial: coins that spike this fast can reverse just as sharply, and small caps carry high volatility and lower liquidity. These are speculative watches for experienced investors only, not core holdings. Never chase a pump with money you cannot afford to lose.
How to choose what’s right for you The “best” crypto depends entirely on your risk tolerance and timeline. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the lower-risk core holdings for most portfolios. Solana, XRP, BNB, and Stellar offer higher growth potential with moderate-to-high risk. Aave, Jupiter, and Kaspa are higher-risk sector and ecosystem bets. The momentum names like Velvet are speculative and highest-risk. Many investors diversify across several rather than picking one, and use dollar-cost averaging to reduce timing risk.
Whatever you choose, the discounted prices after this correction give long-term investors more attractive entry points than they had at the highs, but only if the recovery materializes, which depends heavily on the Fed and broad market conditions.
Bottom line There is no single best crypto to buy in July 2026, but Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the core lower-risk picks, Solana is the clear momentum leader with real institutional adoption, and names like Aave, XRP, and Jupiter offer varying risk-reward profiles. This week’s big gainers like Velvet and Morpho show where speculative money is flowing, but carry substantial risk. Prices are discounted after the correction, which favors patient long-term investors, but the macro picture remains challenging. Match your choices to your risk tolerance, diversify, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
FAQ What is the best crypto to buy right now? There is no single best crypto. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the lower-risk core picks, Solana is the current momentum leader with strong institutional adoption, and coins like Aave, XRP, and Jupiter offer higher potential with more risk. The right choice depends on your goals and risk tolerance.
What is the best crypto for beginners? Bitcoin is generally considered the best starting point for beginners due to its lower relative risk, strong track record, and clear store-of-value thesis. Ethereum is often the second choice. Beginners should start with established assets and use dollar-cost averaging.
Which crypto is performing best right now? Among major coins, Solana leads with roughly 8.5% weekly gains, backed by real institutional adoption. Aave rose about 21.6% on a buyback catalyst. Among smaller caps, Velvet surged over 240%, though such spikes carry high reversal risk.
Is now a good time to buy crypto? Prices are discounted after the correction, giving long-term investors more attractive entry points. However, a hawkish Fed and macro pressure mean prices could fall further before recovering. This is not investment advice; assess your own risk tolerance.
Should I buy the coins with the biggest weekly gains? Be cautious. Coins that spike quickly, like this week’s momentum names, can reverse just as sharply. Big short-term gains often reflect speculative flows rather than fundamentals. These suit experienced investors comfortable with high risk, not core holdings.
Should I buy one crypto or several? Many investors diversify across several cryptocurrencies to spread risk rather than concentrating in one. Combining lower-risk holdings like Bitcoin with higher-potential altcoins, sized to your risk tolerance, is a common approach. Dollar-cost averaging reduces timing risk.
*This is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and coins showing large short-term gains can reverse sharply. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.*
Bitcoin (BTC) buyers in the United States have gone quiet. The Coinbase Premium Index, a gauge of US Bitcoin demand, has stayed negative since May 6, its longest weak stretch in more than a year.
The signal matters because it shows who is stepping back. A negative premium means American investors are paying less for BTC than the rest of the market. That helps answer why is Bitcoin going down.
What the Coinbase Premium Is ShowingThe index tracks the price gap between US-based Coinbase and offshore exchanges. When it turns negative, US Bitcoin demand is fading. When it climbs, American buyers are leading.
Coinbase Premium Index: CryptoQuantRight now it is stuck below zero. The current negative premium streak began on May 6, with Bitcoin near $81,429, and has held for roughly eight weeks. That is the longest such run since early 2025.
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Since then, the Bitcoin spot price has slid toward $59,500, down about 27% and still falling.
Where Is Bitcoin Money GoingThe weak US Bitcoin demand lines up with a historic move in stocks. American money is not sitting idle. It is chasing chips.
The semiconductor index has beaten the S&P 500 by about 85 percentage points this year, its widest first-half lead on record, according to Kobeissi. That tops the dot-com peak of 2000.
US chip stocks are on a historic run:
The semiconductor index, $SOX, has outperformed the S&P 500 by +85 percentage points year-to-date, on pace for the best half-year outperformance in history.
This would exceed the previous record set during the Dot-Com Bubble in H1 2000 by… pic.twitter.com/Qdah3TVmgr
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 30, 2026 Chips now dominate the market. Semiconductors make up roughly 18% of the S&P 500 and have driven close to 70% of its 2026 gains, data shows. Micron has jumped about 300% and SanDisk more than 760%.
The rotation is visible in fund flows. Since April, US gold and Bitcoin ETFs have lost about $12 billion, while chip ETFs pulled in around $20 billion.
Retail investors appear to be rotating out of gold and Bitcoin into semiconductor stocks:
Since April, US gold and Bitcoin ETFs have posted -$12 billion in cumulative outflows.
Over the same period, US semiconductor ETFs have attracted +$20 billion in cumulative inflows.
This… pic.twitter.com/VHuDTB0nyN
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 27, 2026 BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest bitcoin fund, led June’s record ETF outflows, the worst month since spot ETFs launched.
The January WarningThis is not the first time US Bitcoin demand vanished this year. The pattern already played out once.
Bitcoin’s premium turned negative around January 15, when BTC traded near $95,583. By the time that streak ended on February 24, Bitcoin had crashed to about $64,100.
Coinbase Premium Index January: CryptoQuantThat was a drop of roughly 33% in six weeks. The current slump is longer and shows the same fading US demand.
One Caveat Before the PanicThere is a catch to the rotation story. Bitcoin and the Nasdaq usually move together, with a six-month correlation near 0.46. That link normally means both rise and fall on the same macro forces.
BTC-NASDAQ Correlation: Charlie Quant LabThis year, though, the two have split but the correlation stays intact. Bitcoin is down about 33% in 2026, while the tech sector has gained more than 20% in the first half.
Tech 6-Month Performance: FinVizThe reason for the gap points straight back to chips. Semiconductors drove close to 70% of the market’s 2026 gains, so this tech rally is really a chip rally. In other words, the asset class Bitcoin usually tracks is being lifted by the exact sector US buyers are moving into.
That is why the split matters. When a normally correlated pair breaks apart this far, capital moving from one into the other is the simplest explanation.
What Happens NextBitcoin’s next move may hinge on US buyers. If the premium stays negative and chip inflows continue, the path of least resistance points lower for BTC. The January-February price slump of 33% shows that BTC can still correct further.
Yet, a flip back to positive would be the first real sign that domestic BTC demand is returning. Until then, the January script remains the one to watch.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
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Bitcoin has been struggling to recover after falling from $64,669 last month and is now trading near $58,669. As the market remains highly volatile, analysts warn that Bitcoin’s next liquidity move could trap both bulls and bears.
While one group sees a short squeeze pushing BTC toward $62,000, others believe the market may first revisit the $50,000 liquidity zone before the next major rally begins.
$62K Holds the Biggest Short Liquidation TargetLooking at the Bitcoin Exchange Liquidation Map, market analyst Seth believes Bitcoin Price has already cleared one important liquidation zone. When Bitcoin recently fell to around $57,800, nearly $1.16 billion worth of leveraged long positions were liquidated.
According to Seth, that liquidity has now been “grabbed,” meaning that overleveraged longs trader taken out.
After the recent bounce to near $59K, Seth believes many traders are again trying to buy the bottom. The chart shows another $1.16 billion worth of leveraged long positions building around the $57.8K level, meaning traders are once again betting that Bitcoin has found a bottom.
Now that the $58K Bitcoin long liquidation has been grabbed.
New degens are trying to catch the bottom with 100x and $1.16B has been added around $57.8K.
But when the degens give up, MM will be looking at the $4.14B in short liquidation at $62K BTC. pic.twitter.com/NtWnK9Dn41
— Seth (@seth_fin) June 30, 2026 Seth calls these traders “degens” because many are using extremely high leverage, sometimes as much as 100x.
However, Seth says the much bigger opportunity sits above the market. Around $62,000, there is nearly $4.14 billion in cumulative short liquidations. If Bitcoin climbs into that zone, short sellers may be forced to buy back their positions, pushing the price even higher.
Bitcoin to Visit $50K, Before Rally BeginsAdding another perspective, crypto trader SantinoCripto analyzed Bitcoin’s 1-day liquidation heatmap and highlighted another key signal. According to him, the largest concentration of liquidity is currently sitting between $50,000 and $57,000, making this one of the most important price zones to watch in the coming weeks.
As per his analysis, markets often move toward areas where the most liquidity is concentrated, making it likely that Bitcoin could revisit this zone over the next one to two months.
If that happens, the $50,000-$52,000 range could become the new bear market floor.
Supporting this view, crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that a drop to $50,000 would liquidate nearly $70 million worth of long positions, which could increase selling pressure before the market finds a stronger bottom.
History Still Favors Bitcoin in July, With an Average of 7% ReturnDespite the short-term uncertainty, historical data remains positive. Looking at the Bitcoin monthly return chart, BTC has finished July in positive 9 out of the past 13 years, with an average monthly return of around 7%.
Crypto researcher Fleh remains bullish, saying Bitcoin’s monthly Binance liquidation heatmap shows significant short liquidity above current prices. One major cluster sits near $67,645, containing roughly $247 million in liquidation leverage and about $2.26 billion in cumulative short liquidations.
July is going to be a bullish month
There is so much liquidity sitting to the upside
I think $BTC bottoms here at 60k for now targeting 75k to the upside before any chance of lower
Enjoy the rollercoaster pic.twitter.com/ux5XCMcjp2
— fleh (@cryptofleh) June 26, 2026 Based on that liquidity, Fleh believes Bitcoin could first recover toward $75,000 before any larger correction has a chance to develop.
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President Donald Trump holds more than $50 million in Bitcoin, stored in cold wallets, according to his 2025 annual financial disclosure released by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics. The filing is a detailed federal accounting of the president’s personal crypto position since he took office in January 2025.
In total, Trump reported generating more than $1 billion in crypto-related revenue last year, including $635 million in royalties from his memecoin venture and more than $500 million from token sales associated with World Liberty Financial.
The headline figure of over $50 million sits in a single line of the report. Under the entity CIC Digital LLC, an asset described as a “Cryptocurrency Wallet Virtual Bitcoin Key (held in cold wallet)” carries a valuation of “Over $50,000,000,” the highest bracket the disclosure form permits.
The form does not require a precise number above that threshold, so the true size of the holding could exceed the stated floor. The Bitcoin line reported no income for the period, a result consistent with an asset held rather than sold.
The Bitcoin sits inside The Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust, dated April 7, 2014, of which the president is the sole beneficiary. That structure places the holding within the same trust that controls his stake in Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent of Truth Social.
The cold-storage designation indicates the private keys are kept offline, a method that removes the asset from internet-connected systems and the custody of a third-party exchange.
Bitcoin is one of several digital assets in the cold wallets tied to CIC Digital LLC. The same entity reports an Ethereum key valued between $5 million and $25 million, a staked Ethereum position through a Coinbase staking agreement that produced $510,808 in validator rewards, a USDC stablecoin holding in the $5 million to $25 million range, and a smaller dollar-denominated wallet.
Across the two largest asset classes, Bitcoin and Ethereum, the disclosed value runs past $100 million.
Separate disclosures also report that Vice President JD Vance holds Bitcoin valued between $250,000 and $500,000. Vance’s holdings have been previously reported.
Trump and World Liberty Financial’s holdings A second cluster of crypto holdings appears under entities connected to World Liberty Financial, the decentralized-finance venture that carries the Trump name.
Those wallets include a separate Bitcoin key valued at “Over $50,000,000,” an Ethereum key in the same top bracket, and positions in other crypto. The World Liberty entries also record large income figures tied to token sales, including more than $236 million in net proceeds distributed by World Liberty Financial LLC and a $150 million income figure on the Ethereum line.
Trump’s disclosure reports more than $500 million in proceeds from token sales tied to World Liberty Financial, the Trump-linked venture behind the WLFI governance token, with the company’s combined wallet entries summing to roughly $527 million.
The filing also records a $635,068,835 royalty payment under CIC Digital LLC, linked to a meme-coin licensing agreement with Celebration Coins. A related entity, DTTM Operations LLC, lists 15.75 billion World Liberty governance tokens valued in the top bracket.
The disclosure arrives at a moment when the president’s crypto interests intersect with his administration’s policy agenda. Trump has called himself somewhat of an ally of the digital-asset industry, and his government has moved to establish a federal posture toward reserves and regulation.
The personal holdings detailed in the filing give the public a direct view of the scale of the assets the president owns in the sector his administration oversees.
A sitting U.S. president now reports holding more than $50 million of Bitcoin in self-custody, in cold storage, in the same manner long advocated by Bitcoin holders who prize control of their own keys.
What the filing does not reveal is when the Bitcoin was acquired, at what price, or how the holding has changed across the year. The form’s bracket system caps reporting at the $50 million ceiling and offers no window into cost basis or timing.
It’s important to note that the $635 million royalty figure appears as a single line in the filing (recorded under CIC Digital as a license agreement with Celebration Coins, which the document does not explicitly label a “memecoin”), the “more than $500 million” from World Liberty Financial and the “$1 billion” total are aggregations compiled by Bitcoin Magazine.
The filing’s single stated token-sales line is $236.25 million, and larger figures were found by summing multiple separate crypto-wallet entries. It’s also worth flagging that several of these amounts are described as gross “proceeds from token sales distributed by World Liberty Financial LLC,” so they don’t necessarily represent net income to Trump himself.
Micah Zimmerman
Micah first discovered Bitcoin in 2018 but remained a skeptic on the sidelines for too long. Since 2021, he has covered crypto and business and now works as a news reporter for Bitcoin Magazine, based in North Carolina.
President Donald Trump disclosed at least $1.4 billion in income tied to crypto during 2025, making digital assets the largest reported source of revenue across his business holdings.
The figures were included in a 927 page annual financial disclosure received by the US Office of Government Ethics on June 29. The report covers income generated through companies and trusts connected to Trump, though some entities also include ownership interests held by family members.
CIC Digital, an entity wholly owned by the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust, reported about $635.1 million in royalties from a licensing agreement with Celebration Coins. The company also disclosed Bitcoin holdings valued above $50 million, along with Ethereum and USDC wallets valued between $5 million and $25 million each.
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CIC Digital reported an additional $510,808 in Ethereum staking rewards and $45,932 in interest from its USDC holdings. The entity manages licensing fees related to Trump branded nonfungible tokens and meme coins.
World Liberty Financial related holdings generated more than $592 million across token distributions and an equity sale, according to the filing. The disclosure included $236.3 million from token sales, $65.6 million from the sale of an interest in WLF Holdco and additional distributions paid through wallets holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDC and other tokens.
Trump also disclosed $196.9 million in proceeds from new capital contributions and the sale of units in Stablecoin Holdco. The stablecoin business generated a further $8.3 million in operating income and was valued between $5 million and $25 million in the filing.
The crypto income far exceeded revenue from Trump’s traditional properties. Mar-a-Lago generated about $77.5 million in resort revenue, while his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, reported $37.6 million.
The disclosure offers the most detailed account yet of how significantly Trump’s business interests have shifted toward digital assets. It also renews scrutiny of potential conflicts as his administration shapes policies affecting stablecoins, crypto markets and financial regulation.
Trump transferred several holdings into his revocable trust, of which he remains the sole beneficiary, rather than selling the assets or placing them in an independently managed blind trust. The Office of Government Ethics concluded that the filing complied with applicable disclosure laws and regulations.
The report comes as Bitcoin continues to show signs of weakness after weeks of declines, trading near $58,500 and close to its yearly low of about $58,000, while remaining more than 53% below its record high of roughly $126,200 reached last October.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
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Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
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Bitcoin broke below $58,000 on June 25, a level it hadn’t visited in months, and the drop wasn’t a gentle slide. It was a trapdoor.
Within roughly 60 minutes of breaching that threshold, approximately $450 million in leveraged long positions were forcibly closed. The broader market followed. Total crypto liquidations across the 24-hour period reached $1.26 billion, according to CoinGlass data, hitting more than 209,000 traders in the process.
The intraday decline reached as much as 5%. To put that in leverage terms: a trader running 20x exposure on a long position would have been entirely wiped out on a move half that size.
What actually caused this The trigger wasn’t a hack, a regulatory headline, or a whale dumping coins. It was a jobs report.
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US economic data released ahead of the drop showed stronger-than-expected employment figures alongside inflation readings that came in above forecasts. That combination does one specific thing to crypto markets: it kills rate cut expectations.
CoinGlass heatmaps flagged the vulnerability in advance. The data showed approximately $1.6 billion in long positions clustered just below the $58,000 level, meaning a sustained breach would mechanically force additional liquidations through a cascading effect. Once the price crosses a liquidation threshold, the forced selling pushes price lower, which crosses the next threshold, which triggers more selling.
June 2026 had already seen this playbook run before. Earlier in the month, similar macro pressures produced liquidation events exceeding $1 billion within single 24-hour windows, with some stretching between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion. The June 25 event fits a pattern, not an anomaly.
The short squeeze sitting on the other side Here’s the uncomfortable wrinkle for anyone positioned short: derivatives data at the time of the drop pointed toward heavily crowded short positioning across the market.
When short positioning becomes this concentrated, it creates the conditions for a short squeeze, a scenario where any upward price movement forces short sellers to buy back their positions quickly, accelerating the recovery and punishing the very traders who were most confidently bearish.
What this means for the market going forward The broader concern here isn’t a single day’s price action. It’s the sensitivity the market is demonstrating to macroeconomic data. Bitcoin’s price moving 5% on a US jobs report is a reminder that the asset hasn’t fully decoupled from traditional risk sentiment.
For traders still holding leveraged positions, the June 25 event is a case study in how quickly liquidity can evaporate. The $450 million liquidated in one hour isn’t abstract. Those are real positions, real margin calls, and real accounts zeroed out in the time it takes to make a cup of coffee.
The $1.6 billion in vulnerable long positions flagged by CoinGlass before the breach also raises a question about what happens if price action remains suppressed. If Bitcoin continues to trade near or below $58,000, positions that survived the initial drop remain at risk if prices drift lower, and each subsequent leg down carries the same mechanical liquidation dynamic.
Multiple billion-dollar liquidation events in a single month indicate elevated systemic leverage, and elevated leverage in a volatile rate environment is a combination that historically resolves messily.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
The first half of 2026 has been the biggest fundraising stretch in the short but explosive history of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Cumulative net inflows since the vehicles launched in January 2024 now surpassing $58 billion.
The numbers behind the record run On January 2 alone, US crypto ETFs attracted nearly $670 million in fresh capital. Bitcoin-specific products accounted for $471 million of that haul, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) pulling in approximately $287 million to lead all issuers.
January also delivered one of the most remarkable single-day performances in ETF history. Inflows hit $843.6 million in a single session, the highest figure since October 2025. That day anchored a three-day streak that totaled $1.71 billion.
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April turned out to be the real standout month. Bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest monthly inflows of 2026, landing somewhere between $1.97 billion and $2.44 billion — again, the best performance since October 2025.
The usual suspects led the charge. BlackRock’s IBIT continued to dominate in terms of raw inflows. Fidelity’s FBTC and Bitwise’s BITB also captured meaningful market share. Grayscale’s GBTC, the converted trust that has functioned as a slow-motion outflow machine since the ETF conversion, continued to see capital leave, though at a less dramatic pace than in 2024.
The May speed bump From mid-May to early June, Bitcoin ETFs suffered their longest outflow streak of the year. Over 13 consecutive trading days, roughly $4.4 billion exited these products. The streak finally broke on June 5, when flows turned positive again with a modest net inflow of $3.05 million.
A 13-day outflow streak that erased $4.4 billion represents a fraction of the $58 billion in cumulative inflows these products have absorbed since inception.
What this means for investors ETF flows have become one of the most reliable demand signals in the Bitcoin market. Unlike on-chain metrics that require interpretation, or futures data that reflects leveraged speculation, ETF inflows represent actual dollars from actual institutions buying actual Bitcoin exposure through regulated channels.
BlackRock’s IBIT has established itself as the dominant product. Fidelity and Bitwise have carved out meaningful positions as alternatives. Grayscale continues to lose ground, a slow unwinding that began when GBTC converted from a closed-end trust to an ETF and investors finally got the chance to exit positions they’d been locked into for years.
As May demonstrated, these products are not immune to drawdowns. A $4.4 billion outflow streak over 13 days can create meaningful selling pressure on Bitcoin’s spot price, since ETF issuers must buy and sell actual Bitcoin to match fund flows.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin plunged to an intraday low of $58,131 on June 25, its weakest level since September 2024. The 21-month low came as traders confronted a brutal convergence of macro headwinds, institutional selling pressure, and mounting anxiety about the crypto market’s single largest corporate holder.
The damage was swift. Over $1 billion in liquidations hit the market in just 24 hours, with long positions bearing the brunt. Bitcoin managed to claw back to around $59,460, but the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had already flipped to “extreme fear.”
What’s driving the selloff The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, hit three-year highs, signaling that interest rates aren’t coming down anytime soon.
Bitcoin spot ETFs, which had been a reliable demand engine, experienced significant outflows through May and into early June 2026. The institutional bid that helped push Bitcoin to its all-time highs has, at least temporarily, dried up.
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AI-related equities have been vacuuming up capital during Q2 2026, diverting money from the same pool of risk-tolerant investors who might otherwise hold Bitcoin.
The Strategy question Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy and the largest corporate Bitcoin holder on the planet, holds over 845,000 BTC — more than 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. The company reportedly engaged in its first Bitcoin sale since 2022, a development that carries outsized psychological weight even if the actual volume sold was modest relative to its total stack.
Strategy has historically used debt and equity issuance to fund its Bitcoin purchases. In a rising rate environment, the cost of that leverage goes up, and if the company faces pressure from bondholders or needs to shore up its balance sheet, selling Bitcoin becomes the obvious lever to pull.
Options expiry adds volatility risk Approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin options were set to expire on Deribit on June 26. Large options expirations often create whipsaw price action as market makers hedge and unwind positions.
With Bitcoin already at fragile technical levels and sentiment deeply negative, the options expiry introduced a window of amplified volatility. The liquidation cascade of over $1 billion underscored just how leveraged the market had become, with falling prices triggering margin calls, forcing more selling, pushing prices lower in a feedback loop.
What this means for investors The ETF outflow trend is worth watching closely. Bitcoin spot ETFs were arguably the most important structural demand driver of the 2024-2025 rally. If those flows don’t reverse, Bitcoin loses a critical pillar of support.
The Strategy overhang is perhaps the most idiosyncratic risk in crypto today. With over 845,000 BTC on its books, any further sales, or even hints of sales, could trigger cascading sell pressure. Investors who have exposure to Bitcoin should be monitoring Strategy’s SEC filings and public statements as closely as they monitor on-chain data.
The extreme fear reading on the sentiment index has historically preceded both capitulation bottoms and extended drawdowns — it’s a contrarian signal, not a timing signal.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin (BTC) could see a short-term relief from heavy selling pressure as quarter-end portfolio rebalancing could potentially revive spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows, according to a K33 report on Tuesday.
The firm stated that aggressive ETF selling has become one of the biggest drivers of Bitcoin's recent weakness, noting that five-day net ETF flows plunged to -34,267 BTC last week, marking the second-largest five-day outflow on record.
1-Week Flow BTC ETFs. Source: K33Bitcoin ETF selling pressure could ease due to quarter-end rebalancingDespite the outflows, the firm noted that quarter-end portfolio rebalancing could offer temporary relief in the coming weeks.
"As we await the end of yet another quarter of significant BTC underperformance, rebalancing may once again push flows from negative to positive over the coming week," K33's Head of Research Vetle Lunde wrote.
The firm stated that in nine of the past 18 months, ETF flows diverged from the prevailing trend for the rest of the month during the six trading days around month-end.
In several instances, periods when Bitcoin underperformed the S&P 500 were followed by stronger ETF inflows as investors increased their Bitcoin exposure during portfolio rebalancing.
Bitcoin Monthly Returns Relative to SPX vs ETF Flows +-3 Days From Month End. Source: K33However, K33 cautioned that the relationship has not been consistent enough to be viewed as a reliable market signal. The firm stated that the other nine months failed to follow the same pattern, indicating that rebalancing is only one of several factors influencing ETF demand.
"If this relationship persists, quarter-end rebalancing could provide a well-needed relief for Bitcoin during the first few trading days of July," the report said.
K33 also examined recent changes at Strategy, saying the company's expanded liquidity reserve reduces immediate concerns about forced Bitcoin sales while introducing a new source of uncertainty.
The report noted that Strategy increased its USD reserve to $2.55 billion, extending preferred dividend coverage from roughly 10 months to more than 17 months.
The company also established a Bitcoin Monetization Program, allowing it to sell up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to fund obligations and share repurchases.
"The possibility of BTC sales from its 847,363 BTC holdings remains a risk to market sentiment, particularly if investors continue to worry about a potential doom loop in which Strategy ultimately suspends dividends on its preferred securities,” K33 added.
Wintermute suggests downside could persist before a market bottomWintermute analysts shared a similar sentiment in a report made public on Tuesday, arguing that although several indicators point to an advanced stage of Bitcoin's bear market, a definitive bottom has yet to form.
Wintermute pointed to deeply depressed sentiment, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remaining in extreme fear territory and an increasing share of Bitcoin's circulating supply now being held at a loss.
The firm also viewed Strategy's newly announced capital framework as reducing the risk of a disorderly unwind while underscoring the current market environment.
"A Bitcoin treasury company now reserving the right to sell Bitcoin to cover its dividends tells you something about where we are in the cycle," Wintermute wrote.
Wintermute analysts noted that Bitcoin has historically not bottomed during the summer months, as thin trading volumes limit meaningful accumulation.
The firm expects further downside into September or October before a potential recovery, depending on macroeconomic conditions.
Bitcoin is trading at $58,690, down 2% over the past 24 hours at the time of writing.
AptosLabs has announced the launch of Open USD, a new stablecoin initiative in partnership with major financial and technology entities including Mastercard, Visa, Stripe, and BlackRock. This new stablecoin, developed by a consortium called Open Standard, is designed to facilitate global payments and settlements. The consortium aims to overcome cost and access barriers in cross-border transactions by employing a governance model that shares reserve earnings among partners rather than relying on a single issuer. Stripe has already committed to adopting Open USD as its default stablecoin for business transactions, indicating strong early support for the initiative.
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Key Takeaways The launch of Open USD by high-profile financial institutions suggests increased institutional engagement in the cryptocurrency sector. Market participants appear to view this development as supportive of increased commitments to the Laso Finance public sale, as indicated by rising YES pricing. The introduction of Open USD could indicate a positive impact on Bitcoin’s price, with market pricing suggesting a potential increase before June 21. What to Watch Observers will be keenly watching for further commitments from institutional backers to the Laso Finance public sale, with markets currently showing strong YES pricing for higher thresholds. Additionally, the impact of Open USD on Bitcoin markets will be closely monitored, especially regarding its influence on Bitcoin price dynamics leading up to June 21. Continued announcements from the consortium partners and any regulatory updates could further sway market perceptions and pricing.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h End of sale window 37.9% — — View market → End of sale window 11.6% — — View market → End of sale window 1.8% — — View market → End of sale window 78.4% — — View market → End of sale window 39.5% — — View market → August 1 2026 92.5% — — View market → August 1 2026 47% — — View market → August 1 2026 99.1% — — View market →
Disclosure Reveals Crypto as Trump's Biggest EarnerDonald Trump's annual financial disclosure for 2025 shows at least $1.4 billion in cryptocurrency-related income, making digital assets the largest single source of earnings during his second term. The 2025 filing was released by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics and spans more than 900 pages, covering the first year of Trump's second non-consecutive term.
Trump reported $635 million in royalties tied to what the disclosure describes as "Celebration Coins," connected to CIC Digital LLC, his meme coin business. The $TRUMP meme token launched on the Solana network just days before Trump retook office in January 2025. Separately, he pocketed more than $500 million from token sales connected to World Liberty Financial, the crypto company that he and his family have maintained an ownership stake in, even as it has drawn conflict-of-interest complaints.
The prior year's filing, released in June 2025, showed about $57.35 million from World Liberty token sales, meaning the 2025 total is roughly 25 times larger.
Bitcoin Holdings and Conflict-of-Interest QuestionsTrump also disclosed holding more than $50 million in Bitcoin, stored in cold wallets, according to the filing. The Bitcoin sits inside The Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust, dated April 7, 2014, of which the president is the sole beneficiary. Trump also reported holding between $5 million and $25 million in Ethereum, among other digital assets.
The numbers reignited a familiar debate over conflicts of interest, with ethics groups arguing that a sitting president should not profit from industries his own policies directly touch. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly dismissed those concerns, stating that neither the president nor his family has ever engaged in conflicts of interest. Even as Trump increased his fortune from crypto industry ties, the broader sector headed into a rough patch in which assets have plummeted in price and businesses struggle.
Sources:
Fox Business: Trump financial disclosure reveals more than $1B in crypto income
NBC News: Trump's financial disclosure lists $1.4 billion in crypto earnings
Decrypt: Trump Discloses Over $1.2 Billion in Crypto Earnings, $50M in Bitcoin Holdings
Bitcoin fell to a fresh 21-month low as the prospect of higher interest rates and concerns about the largest corporate buyer of the token weakened sentiment.
Bitcoin dropped as much as 1.5% to $57,742 in Asia trading on Wednesday, its lowest level since Sept. 17, 2024, before steadying by 10 a.m. in Singapore.
Hawkish comments by US Federal Reserve policymakers are fueling expectations for higher rates, encouraging capital away from assets like cryptocurrencies that don’t pay a yield. Investors pulled more than $4 billion from US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in June, the most since they launched two years ago.
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Bitcoin “has faced growing headwinds from shifting Fed rate expectations and a stronger US dollar,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Australia. A US nonfarm payrolls report due later this week “has the potential to add further pressure if it reinforces a hawkish tilt from the Fed,” he said.
In addition, investors have reversed an initial vote of confidence in Michael Saylor’s financing overhaul at Strategy Inc., raising fresh concerns that one of the biggest buyers of Bitcoin may no longer be a consistent source of demand.
While investors initially welcomed the prospect of stock buybacks and a larger cash reserve, the focus quickly shifted to Strategy’s newfound flexibility to sell Bitcoin and prioritize balance-sheet management over relentless accumulation.
Bitcoin has now fallen more than 50% from its record high above $126,000 in October last year and is below its 200-week moving average, a technical level that can signal a prolonged bear market.
BloombergAt his first press conference as Fed chairman last month, Kevin Warsh made clear the central bank won’t tolerate high inflation, spurring expectations for higher rates and boosting the US dollar.
Other Fed officials have also recently indicated the possibility of tighter policy. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack told CNBC Tuesday that the central bank may need to raise rates to bring inflation down to its 2% goal.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
President Donald Trump’s latest financial disclosure has offered the clearest look yet at how deeply cryptocurrency has become woven into his business empire.
A newly released 927-page filing with the U.S. Office of Government Ethics shows Trump generated more than $1.1 billion from crypto-related ventures over the past year alone. The filing also sheds light on how his family-backed crypto businesses have quietly become one of his largest wealth generators while his administration pushes a more crypto-friendly agenda.
World Liberty Financial Became Trump’s Biggest Crypto PaydayAccording to the filing, Trump reported earning over $515 million from WLF token sales, along with another $65 million from selling equity in the company’s holding business. The project has rapidly evolved into one of the family’s largest revenue streams since its launch.
The filing follows earlier estimates from Reuters that the Trump family’s crypto ventures have generated at least $2.3 billion from investors since Trump returned to office. Part of that expansion included the sale of a 49% stake in WLF to a company backed by an Abu Dhabi royal, further boosting the project’s reach.
TRUMP Memecoin Added Another Massive Revenue StreamAnother standout figure came from the official TRUMP memecoin, which launched just days before Trump’s inauguration.
The disclosure shows Trump received approximately $635 million in royalties tied to the token, making it one of the single biggest contributors to his crypto income during the year.
Together, WLF and the TRUMP token accounted for well over $1 billion in crypto-related earnings, showcasing how digital assets have quickly become a central pillar of Trump’s personal fortune.
Crypto Now Sits Alongside Trump’s Traditional BusinessesWhile crypto dominated the headlines, the filing shows Trump continues earning heavily from his traditional businesses.
His golf clubs and hospitality properties generated more than $290 million, including revenue from Mar-a-Lago, while legal settlements with companies including Meta, ABC, CBS, YouTube, and X added at least $86.5 million.
The report also disclosed investments in companies such as CoreWeave, the former Bitcoin mining firm that has shifted into AI infrastructure, along with holdings in gold bars valued between $500,000 and $1 million. Adding to the family business, First Lady Melania Trump earned more than $10.7 million from her documentary and over $6 million through licensing agreements involving NFTs and digital collectibles.
According to Forbes, Trump’s net worth has climbed to roughly $6.5 billion, with cryptocurrency now standing alongside real estate and hospitality as one of the biggest drivers of his growing wealth.
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A financial disclosure filing released by the US government has revealed Donald Trump’s cryptocurrency-related assets.
According to information in the file, Trump’s crypto assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are worth over $100 million.
The notification stated that Trump’s virtual Bitcoin key, held in a cold wallet, is worth over $50 million. Additionally, the value of his Ethereum key, also held in a cold wallet, was listed as ranging from $5 million to $25 million.
USDC assets also drew attention in the file. It was noted that the value of the virtual USDC key that Trump kept in a cold wallet was between $5 million and $25 million, and that $45,932 in interest income was earned from this asset.
According to the notification, Trump also has Ethereum assets staked under a Coinbase staking agreement. It was stated that he received a validator reward of $510,808 from this item.
The financial statement also included a licensing agreement with Celebration Coins. It was reported that $635,068,835 in royalties were generated from this agreement, the value of which is not easily determined.
*This is not investment advice.
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President Donald Trump reported more than $1 billion in crypto earnings for 2025, with a single meme coin and his family’s crypto venture driving most of the income detailed in a new federal financial disclosure.
The 927-page filing, released Tuesday by the Office of Government Ethics, arrived one day after a pivotal Supreme Court ruling. The decision widened presidential power over the independent agencies that regulate digital assets.
Where Trump Crypto Earnings Came FromThe filing shows CIC Digital, Trump’s meme coin business, earned about $636 million in royalties. He launched the token three days before his January 2025 inauguration.
World Liberty Financial added about $515 million from token sales and $65 million from equity in its holding company. The decentralized finance (DeFi) venture is roughly 38% owned by a Trump family entity.
Together, the three streams topped $1.2 billion. Trump separately disclosed more than $100 million in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) holdings.
The stake ties him to a Trump family crypto empire built on assets he now helps regulate.
Disclosure Lands Beside a Major Court RulingThe disclosure followed Trump v. Slaughter, a Supreme Court decision that lets presidents fire commissioners at independent regulators without cause.
The 6-3 ruling overturned Humphrey’s Executor, a 91-year-old precedent that had shielded those agencies from the White House. Legal analysts say it extends to the SEC and CFTC, the main crypto regulators.
The timing sharpened questions about Trump’s dual role as policymaker and crypto investor. Trump welcomed the outcome.
“This Decision gives tremendous additional Power back to the Presidency, where it belongs. It is an Honor to be the sitting President who, after all these years, WON this very important, and hard fought, Case,” Trump noted in a Truth Social post.
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Scrutiny Over Conflicts of Interest GrowsWorld Liberty Financial has drawn the sharpest scrutiny. In May 2025, Abu Dhabi state fund MGX settled a $2 billion Binance investment using the firm’s USD1 stablecoin.
That deal routed foreign-government money through a token the president’s family helps control. Senate Democrats demanded hearings into the venture over its foreign ties.
The White House has denied that a reported UAE deal shaped the firm. Lawmakers have pushed to bar federal officials from such crypto transactions.
The earnings landed during a market slump. Bitcoin’s spot price sat near $58,500 on Tuesday, down more than 50% from its October record.
Most small wallets that bought the meme coin have lost money, public data shows. Trump’s gains, set against those losses, will keep his stakes under watch as his agencies write the sector’s rules.
Corporate treasuries are quietly reshaping the supply dynamics of Ethereum. While the market fixates on Bitcoin as digital gold, a Nasdaq-listed company has now pushed its ETH stack to nearly 887,000 tokens. According to the original report, SharpLink (Nasdaq: SBET) acquired an additional 10,000 ETH at an average price of approximately $1,611, lifting its total holdings to 886,725 ETH as of June 28, 2026. The company simultaneously repurchased 2.13 million of its own shares at $4.69 on average and raised $75 million through a registered direct offering. The capital allocation strategy is stark: increase ETH exposure per share, not dilute it.
SharpLink’s identity as the second-largest Ethereum treasury company didn’t come out of nowhere. The firm has been methodically stacking ETH, treating the asset less like a speculative bet and more like a permanent balance sheet entry. The latest round of accumulation arrives alongside a clear signal from management about prioritizing per-share metrics. By buying back stock, SharpLink reduces its float, which magnifies each ETH held per outstanding share. For investors who view the company as a liquid proxy for Ethereum, the math becomes straightforward.
This is not a fringe move in a vacuum. Earlier this year, institutional capital entered blockchain infrastructure at record scale, with firms like Bullish acquiring major financial intermediaries and tokenized real-world assets crossing $20 billion on-chain. SharpLink’s actions fit into a broader pattern where public companies are no longer merely dabbling in crypto but are structuring their treasuries around it. While MicroStrategy defined the Bitcoin treasury playbook, Ethereum-focused strategies have been slower to develop. SharpLink is now the most prominent counterweight.
Capital Allocation With a Clear Mandate The $75 million raise through a registered direct offering is the engine behind the latest buy. Unlike secondary market purchases made quietly on the sidelines, this was a duly disclosed capital injection directed at one outcome. SharpLink’s management has not framed ETH as a short-term trade. The share buyback component suggests the company is trying to engineer a tighter correlation between its stock price and its Ethereum holdings. In practical terms, a lower share count with a rising ETH balance creates a higher ETH-per-share ratio, which appeals to institutional investors who cannot or will not custody ETH directly.
Yet, the execution carries market risk. If Ethereum’s price declines, the per-share math cuts both ways. For now, the average entry point around $1,611 sits comfortably below current spot levels in late June 2026, but the treasury’s size—worth roughly $1.5 billion at the time—makes SharpLink one of the most Ethereum-exposed public entities. Its balance sheet now holds more ETH than many DeFi protocol treasuries. The difference is that SharpLink is a regulated Nasdaq entity with quarterly reporting obligations, giving on-chain observers a cleaner window into corporate Ethereum accumulation than most DAOs provide.
What It Signals for Ethereum Markets Large, persistent buyers absorb liquid supply. SharpLink’s total holdings of 886,725 ETH represent over 0.7% of the circulating supply. When a single corporate entity accumulates at this scale, it introduces a structural demand floor that wasn’t present during previous cycles. Ethereum continues to lead developer activity across the blockchain sector, which underpins long-term value beyond the treasury narrative. The real question market participants are asking is whether other publicly traded companies will follow SharpLink’s lead. So far, ETH has lagged behind Bitcoin in corporate treasury adoption, partly because traditional CFOs still grapple with Ethereum’s more complex risk profile—smart contract exposure, protocol-level changes, and a different regulatory classification conversation.
Institutional staking and infrastructure plays are already carving a path. For instance, institutional staking from Nasdaq-listed firms has emerged as a tangible driver of demand in proof-of-stake ecosystems. SharpLink’s case could serve as a blueprint for companies looking to integrate ETH not just as an asset but as a yield-generating instrument, though the company has not publicly disclosed any staking activity tied to its treasury. If it eventually does, the model would shift from a simple holding company to a more active treasury management operation—something that would likely draw additional analyst coverage and regulatory scrutiny.
What remains uncertain is the regulatory boundary around such concentrated corporate ETH positions. Public companies reporting under U.S. securities laws must classify digital assets carefully. Any change in SEC guidance around crypto asset classification could force a revaluation or even a divestment. SharpLink’s bet, then, is not only on Ethereum’s price appreciation but also on a stable regulatory framework that doesn’t penalize corporate treasurers for holding the asset. In the current political cycle, that remains an open question. Still, the message from the company’s latest filing is unmistakable: they are not hedging, they are concentrating, and they are inviting shareholders to do the same through a shrinking float.
AUTHOR
Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Taiwan’s legislature has enacted a new law establishing comprehensive regulations for crypto platforms and stablecoin issuers, marking a significant shift from the previous anti-money laundering registration system. The legislation introduces a formal licensing regime for virtual asset service providers (VASPs) and mandates that stablecoin issuers maintain full reserve backing in domestic financial institutions. The move aligns Taiwan with regional trends towards enhanced oversight of digital assets and indicates a major step into the regulated crypto era. This development is viewed by market participants as a potential boost for Bitcoin and Ethereum, given the positive regulatory clarity in a key Asian market.
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Key Takeaways Taiwan’s regulatory move appears to provide a boost to Bitcoin’s prospects, with market pricing indicating increased confidence in achieving higher price targets. The regulatory clarity in Taiwan suggests a potential increase in institutional interest in cryptocurrencies, which could positively impact future price predictions. Market activity reflects a supportive stance towards Ethereum’s market sentiment, albeit with less direct impact compared to Bitcoin. What to Watch Observers should monitor how the new regulations influence institutional behavior towards Bitcoin and Ethereum in Taiwan. The timeline for existing VASPs to obtain full licenses and achieve regulatory approval could be a key indicator of market adaptation. Further developments in regional regulatory stances may continue to shape market dynamics and influence investor confidence in digital assets.
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When Will Bitcoin Hit 150k
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h June 30, 2026 0.1% — — View market → December 31, 2026 4.2% — — View market → What Price Will Bitcoin Hit Before 2027
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 1.8% — — View market → December 31 2.1% — — View market → December 31 4.7% — — View market → December 31 5.5% — — View market → December 31 6.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 12.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 46% — — View market → January 1 2027 8.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.7% — — View market → January 1 2027 2.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.3% — — View market → January 1 2027 5.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 7.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 82.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 16.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 4% — — View market → January 1 2027 64.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 29.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 12.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 4.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 4% — — View market → January 1 2027 2.9% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.4% — — View market → January 1 2027 1.1% — — View market → January 1 2027 15.5% — — View market → January 1 2027 18.5% — — View market → ⚡ Also Impacted by This Story
PANews, July 1 – According to SoSoValue data, crypto sectors generally fell, with the Layer 2 sector down 3.57% in 24 hours. Among them, Mantle (MNT) fell 4.97%, Starknet (STRK) fell 4.93%, and Celestia (TIA) fell 9.54%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.89%, dropping below $59,000; Ethereum (ETH) fell 0.98%, dropping below $1,600.
In other sectors, the PayFi sector fell 0.29% in 24 hours, but Stellar (XLM) rose 11.00%; the CeFi sector fell 0.87%, Binance Coin (BNB) fell 1.19%; the Meme sector fell 1.05%, MemeCore (M) rose against the trend by 22.60%; the Layer 1 sector fell 1.41%, Cardano (ADA) was relatively resilient, rising 1.32%; the DeFi sector fell 2.79%, LAB (LAB) fell 14.83%.
Additionally, the SocialFi and NFT sectors were relatively resilient, rising 0.50% and 0.54% respectively. Within the SocialFi sector, Gram (GRAM) rose 1.01%; within the NFT sector, Audiera (BEAT) rose 7.87%.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) are showing early signs of stabilization on Wednesday after a recent correction. BTC rebounds modestly after falling to a fresh yearly low of $57,800, ETH holds above the critical $1,500 support level while XRP stabilizes around the key $1.00 psychological mark. The technical outlook for these top three cryptocurrencies is raising hopes of a short-term recovery after a massive price decline.
Bitcoin hits a new yearly low of $57,800Bitcoin price is recovering slightly to $59,000 after hitting a new yearly low of $57,800 on Wednesday. BTC is extending its slide well below the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which keeps the bias firmly bearish. The 50-day EMA at $66,352, the 100-day EMA at $70,133 and the 200-day EMA at $76,276 all sit overhead, suggesting a market that remains capped by a dense band of medium- and long-term trend resistance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers near 32, hinting at lingering weak momentum rather than a capitulation low. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns slightly negative again around the zero line, suggesting that the latest bounce is stalling under layered overhead supply.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the prior horizontal barrier around $64,004, ahead of the 50-day EMA near $66,352, with further recovery levels at the 100-day EMA at $70,133 and the 200-day EMA around $76,276.
A more substantial bullish reassessment would require a daily close above these clustered EMAs, while a failure to reclaim the $64,000 area would leave BTC vulnerable to a renewed downside extension targeting the key psychological level at $55,000.
Ethereum holds strong above the $1,500 levelEthereum price trades at $1,586 on Wednesday, holding above the key support zone at $1,500. However, ETH is maintaining a bearish bias, with price remaining well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, clustered between roughly $1,815 and $2,286.
The RSI hovers around 34, maintaining downside pressure, while a mildly positive MACD reading suggests a tentative loss of selling momentum rather than a clear bullish reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50-day EMA near $1,814, with the 100-day EMA around $1,993 and the horizontal barrier at $2,000 forming a broader supply zone; beyond that, the 200-day EMA near $2,285 is a more strategic cap.
On the downside, the next notable support comes in at the horizontal level around $1,385, where buyers may attempt to stabilize the decline if the pair extends lower.
XRP steadies at key $1 markXRP price trades at $1.0471, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it remains well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs at $1.1937, $1.3019, and $1.5145, respectively. The pair also trades beneath the upper boundary of a downward parallel channel near $1.1597, underscoring a capped structure. At the same time, the RSI hovers around 34 and a slightly negative, flattening MACD histogram hints at weak but stabilizing downside momentum rather than an immediate reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the channel boundary around $1.1600, followed by the 50-day EMA near $1.1937. Above these, the horizontal barrier at $1.3000 sits close to the 100-day EMA around $1.3019, forming a broader supply zone ahead of the more distant 200-day EMA near $1.5145 and the major horizontal resistance around $1.9000.
With no clear nearby structural support printed below the spot in this dataset, a daily close back above the $1.1600–$1.1900 band would be needed to ease immediate bearish pressure. At the same time, a failure to reclaim that cluster would keep the risk skewed toward further downside exploration.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Cryptocurrency prices FAQs Token launches influence demand and adoption among market participants. Listings on crypto exchanges deepen the liquidity for an asset and add new participants to an asset’s network. This is typically bullish for a digital asset.
A hack is an event in which an attacker captures a large volume of the asset from a DeFi bridge or hot wallet of an exchange or any other crypto platform via exploits, bugs or other methods. The exploiter then transfers these tokens out of the exchange platforms to ultimately sell or swap the assets for other cryptocurrencies or stablecoins. Such events often involve an en masse panic triggering a sell-off in the affected assets.
Macroeconomic events like the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates influence crypto assets mainly through the direct impact they have on the US Dollar. An increase in interest rate typically negatively influences Bitcoin and altcoin prices, and vice versa. If the US Dollar index declines, risk assets and associated leverage for trading gets cheaper, in turn driving crypto prices higher.
Halvings are typically considered bullish events as they slash the block reward in half for miners, constricting the supply of the asset. At consistent demand if the supply reduces, the asset’s price climbs.
