The crypto market bounced today after Bitcoin reclaimed the $60,000 level, lifting the total crypto market by nearly $50 billion in about 90 minutes. The move came after improving macro sentiment, strong technical support, and renewed buying across major cryptocurrencies, even as institutional demand remains weak.
What Triggered Today’s Rally?The biggest boost came after comments from former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh at the ECB Forum in Sintra.
Warsh said inflation is still above target, but it showed the four straight quarters of AI-driven productivity gains. If productivity continues improving, it could eventually give the Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates.
Although Warsh is no longer a Fed policymaker, markets viewed his comments as a positive signal for future monetary easing. Lower interest rates generally increase demand for risk assets, helping fuel buying across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market.
Bitcoin Led the RecoveryBitcoin climbed around 3%, moving back above $60,000 and adding roughly $36 billion to its market value.
Ethereum followed with gains of more than 3%, while most major altcoins also traded higher as confidence returned across the market.
The total crypto market capitalization climbed back above $2.1 trillion, marking one of its strongest intraday recoveries in recent weeks.
Also Read: Bitcoin Q3 2026 Roadmap: July Bounce, Brutal August, Then the Final Low Near $39,000
Altcoins Join the Party Altcoins joined Bitcoin’s recovery with several tokens posting strong gains over the past 24 hours. Solana (SOL) climbed 6.05%, XRP climbed 1.38%, while Cardano saw a 2.61% jump.
Technically, what is the scenario? From a technical perspective, the recovery has improved the short-term outlook.
Analysts are closely watching the $2.08 trillion level on the total crypto market cap chart. A breakout above that resistance could open the door toward $2.16 trillion, signalling stronger bullish momentum.
For Bitcoin, holding above $60,000 remains the key. If buyers maintain control, traders will likely target the next resistance zone around $62,000-$64,000. However, losing the $60,000 level could bring another test of support near $58,000.
Also Read : Exclusive Bitcoin Prediction: Bear Market in Final Phase, But Altcoins Won’t Move Until 2027
What For Bitcoin Price?While today’s rally has improved sentiment, investors remain cautious.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to record net outflows this week, showing that institutional investors have yet to return aggressively. The latest outflows included $212.4 million from the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and $10.2 million from the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC). Citigroup also recently lowered its one-year Bitcoin price target, reflecting softer institutional expectations.
For now, traders will be watching upcoming U.S. economic data and any fresh signals from Federal Reserve officials. If expectations for rate cuts continue to strengthen and Bitcoin holds above key technical levels, the current rebound could extend further.
But if macro conditions worsen or institutional selling continues, volatility is likely to remain high.
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Key Takeaways On-chain monitoring platform Arkham Intelligence detected that Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss moved approximately $60M in Bitcoin and $7M in Ethereum to Gemini exchange hot wallets on July 1, 2026. Similar transfer activity occurred in March ($130M) and June ($67.5M), with Arkham suggesting these movements preceded previous sales. Banking giant Citigroup slashed its one-year price projection for Bitcoin from $112,000 down to $82,000, while reducing its Ethereum forecast from $3,175 to $2,240. Bitcoin touched a 24-hour low of $57,747, with market watchers cautioning that a break below critical support could trigger a decline toward $50,000; Ethereum recorded its weakest monthly closure since 2023. Blockchain analyst Darkfost highlighted that Bitcoin’s net supply ratio reached -0.075, a metric that historically signals potential accumulation zones near market cycle lows. Blockchain surveillance platform Arkham Intelligence disclosed on July 1, 2026, that the Winklevoss twins—Cameron and Tyler—relocated approximately $60 million in Bitcoin alongside $7 million in Ethereum from cold storage wallets to hot wallets associated with Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange they founded. According to Arkham, this transfer pattern mirrors previous movements that preceded liquidation events.
THE WINKLEVOSS TWINS ARE SELLING BITCOIN
The Winklevoss Twins just moved $60M of BTC to Gemini, and $7M of ETH. This activity pattern matches usual selling patterns (custody > hot wallet).
The Winklevosses still hold over $300M of BTC. They made ~$1.7 Billion from Bitcoin since… pic.twitter.com/OXtxB2QBqO
— Arkham (@arkham) July 1, 2026
This isn’t the first time the brothers have executed such transactions. Earlier in June, they moved $67.5 million worth of Bitcoin to Gemini hot wallets. Prior to that, in March, the transfer totaled $130 million. Arkham’s analysis indicates that despite these substantial movements, the Winklevoss brothers maintain a Bitcoin portfolio exceeding $300 million in value, with cumulative Bitcoin gains estimated at approximately $1.7 billion since they began accumulating in 2015.
However, it’s important to recognize that transferring cryptocurrency from cold storage to exchange hot wallets doesn’t automatically signal an impending sale. Institutional holders and high-net-worth individuals frequently move digital assets for various operational purposes, including portfolio rebalancing, security protocol updates, exchange infrastructure management, or enhanced liquidity positioning. As of now, no actual sale has been verified.
Bitcoin Struggles Under Market Pressure The wallet movements occurred while Bitcoin was experiencing notable downward momentum. The leading cryptocurrency declined to an intraday bottom of $57,747 over the preceding 24-hour period and hovered around $58,600 during reporting time. Although trading volume increased by 9%, the cryptocurrency market continued to face headwinds following $4.5 billion in cumulative net withdrawals from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds throughout June, leaving many institutional participants hesitant.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Market analyst Ted Pillows observed that sellers maintain market control, highlighting that the Coinbase Bitcoin premium indicator has reached its lowest level during the current market cycle. Pillows cautioned that should Bitcoin fail to defend the critical support range between $57,000 and $58,000, downside risk could extend toward the $50,000 threshold.
Meanwhile, global financial institution Citigroup revised its cryptocurrency price projections downward. The bank adjusted its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000, while simultaneously reducing its Ethereum outlook from $3,175 to $2,240.
Ethereum Weakness and Blockchain Data Analysis Ethereum traded approximately 1% lower at $1,572, fluctuating within a daily range bounded by $1,549 and $1,600. Technical analyst Cheds Trading emphasized that Ethereum closed the previous month at its lowest level since 2023. The monthly candlestick formation displayed a Red Marubozu pattern, which technical traders generally interpret as a bearish continuation indicator.
Despite prevailing negative price momentum, certain blockchain metrics presented a more nuanced perspective. Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost highlighted that Bitcoin’s net supply ratio—calculated using unspent transaction output data—declined to -0.075. According to Darkfost, this threshold has historically coincided with strategic accumulation opportunities, with the most recent occurrence observed near the conclusion of the 2022 bear market cycle.
Darkfost acknowledged that Bitcoin might experience additional downside movement before accumulation-phase buyers become active participants. Nevertheless, the current reading indicates that selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion.
Market observer Cryptollica presented a comparable analysis regarding Ethereum, emphasizing that the critical question centers on whether existing market structure can maintain support levels. Should these levels hold, the current environment of diminished investor confidence could ultimately establish conditions favorable for a price recovery.
Key Takeaways Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins positions it as a scarce digital asset with strong institutional support and ETF availability Ethereum functions as the foundation for decentralized finance, stablecoin infrastructure, and real-world asset tokenization via smart contracts The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs simplified crypto access for mainstream investors seeking exposure without custody concerns Ethereum’s proof-of-stake transition dramatically reduced environmental impact while introducing staking yield opportunities Growing numbers of investors diversify across both assets, leveraging Bitcoin’s stability alongside Ethereum’s technological upside Heading into 2026, Bitcoin and Ethereum continue their reign as cryptocurrency’s leading assets — yet each presents distinctly different investment propositions.
Why Bitcoin Functions as Digital Gold Bitcoin operates under a rigidly enforced supply ceiling of 21 million coins. This programmatic scarcity has established it as one of the most limited assets across global financial markets.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Institutional adoption has accelerated significantly. Corporate treasuries, retirement funds, and major investment firms now allocate capital to Bitcoin. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs removed technical barriers, enabling conventional investors to participate without direct blockchain interaction.
Financial experts routinely draw comparisons between Bitcoin and precious metals. Should this analogy prove accurate, sustained institutional demand may provide ongoing price support.
Bitcoin encounters minimal competition within its niche. No alternative cryptocurrency has mounted a credible challenge to its status as the preeminent digital store of value.
For risk-averse portfolios, this unambiguous positioning and institutional validation establish Bitcoin as the more conservative option between the two.
Why Ethereum Represents Infrastructure Investment Ethereum derives value from network utilization. The platform underpins decentralized financial protocols, stablecoin issuance, tokenized securities, and countless developer-built applications spanning the globe.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Each transaction processed across these applications generates network fees. Increased usage directly correlates with heightened demand for Ethereum.
The transition to proof-of-stake slashed Ethereum’s environmental footprint. This upgrade simultaneously enabled staking mechanisms, permitting holders to generate yield by committing coins to network security operations.
Traditional financial institutions now pilot blockchain-based instruments including digital bonds and tokenized investment vehicles. Ethereum consistently ranks among the preferred platforms for these institutional experiments.
Advocates contend Ethereum should be evaluated as foundational technology rather than merely a speculative token. This perspective positions it in an entirely separate category from Bitcoin’s value proposition.
Ethereum confronts stiffer competition than Bitcoin does. Rival platforms such as Solana actively court developers and users seeking alternatives.
Bitcoin experiences no comparable competitive pressure. Its digital gold narrative remains essentially unchallenged across the cryptocurrency landscape.
Nevertheless, both assets have attracted substantial institutional investment. Both now feature prominently in corporate strategy discussions and regulatory policy debates.
Many sophisticated investors have abandoned the either-or framework. They maintain positions in both, deploying Bitcoin for capital preservation and Ethereum for exposure to blockchain infrastructure growth.
As of mid-2026, Bitcoin maintains superior standing regarding institutional legitimacy. Ethereum commands the largest total value locked across decentralized finance protocols compared to all competing blockchain platforms, based on current available metrics.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and other major crypto surged over the past 24 hours. This comes as investors responded to Wall Street’s forecasts on slowing nonfarm payrolls, indicating a cooling labor market and Fed rate cut odds.
Bitcoin climbed more than 4% to hit a 24-hour high of $61,223 after weaker-than-expected ADP private payroll data and lower oil prices eased inflation concerns. The moves came amid broader market optimism, the US-Iran peace talks, and a sharp fall in ISM Manufacturing PMI prices.
Wall Street Giants Estimate Slowing US Nonfarm Payrolls The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release June’s US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate on July 2. This jobs data release could significantly impact Bitcoin price and the crypto market direction.
Wall Street economists estimated that Nonfarm payrolls would come in at 110K in May, reinforcing signs of slowing labor market conditions. Notably, US jobs data has dropped from 172K last month, which could boost hopes of a Fed rate cut this year.
Citigroup estimated nonfarm payrolls at more than 25K while Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered projected 130K. Meanwhile, JPMorgan estimated jobs data to come in at 125K, while BofA, HSBC and Capital Economics’ forecasts are in line with economists.
Wall Street’s Nonfarm Payrolls Estimate. Source: LiveSquawk Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are also expected to rise 0.3% for the month, causing the annual rate to slip from 3.6% to 3.4%.
Bitcoin, ETH, and XRP Rise amid Fed Rate Cut Hopes Bitcoin, ETH, and XRP rebounded after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments. He said inflation expectations had eased over the past month, signaling there was no urgency to hike rates.
Meanwhile, CME FedWatch Tool data showed nearly 50% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. Signs of progress in indirect US-Iran talks pushed oil prices lower and eased inflation concerns, causing Bitcoin to climb above $61K.
The US dollar index (DXY) fell to 101.12 on Thursday, with investors closely watching the US nonfarm payrolls report. Also, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.49%, maintaining recent gains.
Bitcoin price has pared some gains over the past few hours, with the price currently trading at $60,095. The 24-hour low and high are $58,263 and $61,223, respectively. Top altcoins ETH and XRP are trading at $1,615 and $1.05, respectively.
Leading cryptocurrencies ticked higher on Wednesday, while stocks retreated, as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh called inflation “too high.”
Crypto Market LiftsBitcoin broke past $61,000 in the evening, only to get rejected and drop back to $59,000. With trading volume spiking 11% over the past day, the struggle between bulls and bears continued.
Ethereum progressed to the mid-$1,600s before a pullback, while XRP and Dogecoin were also among the gainers.
Over $450 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, with $279 million in short positions wiped out, according to Coinglass data.
Bitcoin’s open interest spiked 1.80% over the last 24 hours. BTC’s taker buy volume exceeded the sell volume over the last 24 hours, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market.
Retail and whale derivatives traders on Binance also remained bullish on the apex cryptocurrency.
Top Gainers (24 Hours)
The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.07 trillion, following an increase of 2.78% over the last 24 hours.
Stock Market Cools DownStocks eased on Wednesday after a recent surge in gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 13.96 points, or 0.03%, to close at 52,305.24. The S&P 500 fell 0.22% to end at 7,483.23, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.66% to close at 26,040.03.
Fed Chair Warsh said at an international conference that "prices are too high," but declined to comment on the central bank’s likely move in the July meeting.
The CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed markets pricing a 71% likelihood of the Fed keeping the rates unchanged in July, but nearly a 50% chance of a rate hike in September.
Seller Fatigue Setting In?Ali Martinez, a widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader, declared that the cryptocurrency market has reached its bottom, citing “buy” signals on the TD Sequential indicator for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.
The monthly chart suggests a coordinated macro reversal setup,” the analyst added. “Historically, when multiple assets lock in concurrent monthly buy signals, it indicates seller fatigue and a high probability of a long-term market bottom.”
Rekt Capital, another popular chartist, noted that Bitcoin’s monthly close below the 50-month exponential moving average, currently around $63,000, aligns with patterns observed in prior cycles,
“Generally, prices tends to lose the 50-Month EMA and then turn it into new resistance before additional downside over time,” the analyst said.
Photo Courtesy: KateStock on Shutterstock.com
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Bitcoin climbed back above $60,000 after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks had eased, offering the crypto market its first clear boost in weeks.Solana led major tokens with a roughly 4% daily gain and about a 16% rise over the past week, while most other large cryptocurrencies were mixed.A sharp sell-off in semiconductor and AI-related stocks, driven by concerns over overbuilding and supply shifts, raised questions about whether money could rotate back from the AI trade into bitcoin and other risk assets.Bitcoin BTC$60,204.42 traded above $60,700 on Thursday after a quick overnight reversal after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks had eased, giving a market that spent most of June grinding lower its first clear lift in weeks.
Speaking at the European Central Bank's annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday, Warsh said "inflation risks have come down" while reaffirming the Fed's commitment to returning inflation to 2%.
He declined to signal what the central bank will do at its meeting later this month, saying policymakers would weigh incoming data first. Bitcoin pared earlier losses and pushed back above $60,000 after the remarks, according to CoinDesk reporting.
Solana led the majors. The token rose about 4% on the day to around $78 and is up roughly 16% over the past week, per CoinDesk data, the only large token with a meaningful weekly gain. Ether traded near $1,630, up about 3% on the day, while XRP held at about $1.06. BNB, dogecoin and Tron were softer over the week.
The bigger move was in stocks. A selloff in semiconductor shares spread to South Korea on Thursday, where the Kospi index fell almost 7% before paring losses. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each dropped more than 6%, and Kioxia fell 13% in Japan after a rally that had lifted the stock more than 650% this year.
The declines revived worries that this year's blistering run in artificial-intelligence stocks has outpaced reality.
Two reports fed the unease. Meta is building a cloud business to sell access to spare AI computing power, Bloomberg reported, raising concerns that the company had overbuilt. Apple is in talks to buy chips from two Chinese semiconductor makers, a move that would hurt Korean suppliers.
The AI trade is where money has flowed all quarter while bitcoin fell, giving the asset a rare back-to-back quarterly loss for only the third time in history. Capital rotated steadily into chipmakers and AI infrastructure as crypto closed a losing first half, so cracks there could ease the pull that has weighed on the market.
Elsewhere, Brent crude fell to about $70.60 a barrel, its lowest since late February, before the Middle East war began, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovered.
Gold rose for a second day to trade above $4,060 an ounce after Warsh's comments, and the dollar steadied after two days of gains.
Whether bitcoin's reclaim holds depends on whether the AI wobble deepens into a rotation back toward risk or proves a one-day scare.
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Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Jun 30, 2026
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Why it matters:
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Key Takeaways Bitcoin leads the pack as the most reliable long-term hold thanks to its limited supply and institutional backing Ethereum dominates smart contract platforms, DeFi applications, and stablecoin infrastructure Solana delivers exceptional speed and affordability while capturing growing DEX market share Chainlink serves as critical infrastructure by bridging smart contracts with off-chain data sources Sui presents a mid-cap opportunity with elevated risk but potentially significant returns Market observers have identified five digital currencies as the most compelling long-term investment opportunities as we move deeper into 2026. These selections prioritize network fundamentals, real-world utility, and adoption metrics over speculative price movements.
Bitcoin Bitcoin continues to hold its position as the premier long-term cryptocurrency investment. With a hard-coded maximum supply of 21 million coins, it represents the most scarce major digital asset available.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price The introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds has simplified institutional access to the asset. Meanwhile, an increasing number of corporations are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, further integrating it into traditional financial systems.
Market analysts highlight Bitcoin as presenting the most favorable risk-to-reward profile across the entire cryptocurrency landscape. It serves as the cornerstone for any diversified digital asset strategy.
Experts recommend allocating 35 percent of a crypto portfolio to Bitcoin, representing the highest weighting among these five selections.
Ethereum Ethereum functions as the infrastructure layer for much of the cryptocurrency sector. The network powers thousands of decentralized applications and maintains the industry’s most robust DeFi ecosystem.
The Ethereum blockchain processes billions of dollars in stablecoin transactions. Its role in tokenizing traditional assets such as securities and property continues to expand.
While facing competition from emerging blockchains, Ethereum maintains unmatched developer engagement. This sustained developer interest represents a critical competitive advantage for its long-term prospects.
A 25 percent portfolio allocation to Ethereum is recommended for long-term holders.
Solana Solana stands out for its high-performance capabilities and minimal transaction costs. These characteristics have positioned it as a preferred platform for DeFi protocols, NFT marketplaces, payment systems, and mainstream applications.
Both stablecoin transaction volume and decentralized exchange activity on Solana have shown consistent upward trends. The network has also attracted growing institutional participation.
Analysts suggest a 20 percent allocation to Solana, positioning it as a high-growth blockchain with an increasingly mature ecosystem.
Chainlink Chainlink occupies a unique position among these recommendations. Instead of competing for transaction throughput, it provides critical infrastructure enabling smart contracts to interact with external data sources.
Its oracle technology is considered fundamental to the DeFi sector’s functionality. The platform’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol has gained traction among institutions exploring asset tokenization.
Building a Balanced Portfolio The recommended allocation distributes capital as follows: 35 percent Bitcoin, 25 percent Ethereum, 20 percent Solana, 10 percent Chainlink, and 10 percent Sui.
This distribution aims to balance the stability offered by established networks with growth opportunities from emerging platforms.
Sui completes the portfolio as the highest-risk component. Built using the Move programming language, it prioritizes performance and scalability for gaming, DeFi, and consumer-facing applications.
While Sui’s ecosystem remains in earlier development stages, analysts acknowledge both its elevated risk profile and potential for outsized returns if user adoption accelerates.
No cryptocurrency represents a certain investment. The analysis emphasizes that diversifying across assets with proven fundamentals and practical applications may enhance long-term portfolio performance.
Cryptocurrency investments involve substantial risk and volatility remains inherent to the market. Each of these five digital assets fulfills a specific function within the broader crypto ecosystem as of July 2026.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Less than a year ago, Empery Digital was buying Bitcoin by the hundreds of millions. Now it is considering selling some of that Bitcoin to fund a $65 million bet on AI infrastructure.
The company, which trades on Nasdaq under the ticker EMPD, announced on June 30 that it plans to acquire a 25% ownership stake in a newly formed entity focused on converting a Midwest industrial property into an AI data center. The deal is expected to close in Q3 2026.
What the deal actually looks like The facility already has 150 megawatts of power capacity in place, with room to scale to 300 MW.
Empery is partnering with Hunt Properties on the project, combining what the company describes as its capital markets expertise with Hunt’s background in power procurement and infrastructure development.
The financial structure is notable. The tenant of the AI data center will cover both build-out costs and operating expenses. Empery says long-term lease payments from the arrangement could reach $1 billion, which would represent a significant return on a $65 million entry check.
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To fund the investment, Empery is considering selling a portion of its remaining Bitcoin holdings, which currently sit at approximately 2,914 BTC valued at around $170.7 million as of June 30.
The company is also discontinuing its Bitcoin-based net asset value dashboard, which it previously used to track BTC holdings as a core metric.
From Bitcoin maximalist to AI infrastructure play in under a year Empery Digital, formerly known as Volcon Inc., adopted its Bitcoin treasury strategy in July 2025, raising over $481 million and deploying over $473 million of that into Bitcoin purchases.
The company sold 370 BTC in early 2026 at an average price of $66,632 per coin. The remaining 2,914 BTC represents a meaningful position, but it is a fraction of what the company was accumulating less than 12 months ago.
The company faced shareholder activism related to its Bitcoin treasury approach, a recurring theme among smaller firms that adopted aggressive digital asset strategies.
What this means for investors watching the space Empery’s stock declined following the AI investment announcement.
The bear case is straightforward. Empery spent most of 2025 building a Bitcoin treasury identity, raised hundreds of millions around that thesis, and is now selling that Bitcoin to fund a single illiquid infrastructure bet that gives them a 25% stake, not operational control, in one data center.
The bull case: AI data center demand is real and growing fast. Facilities with existing 150 MW capacity are genuinely scarce. A structure where the tenant covers build-out and operating costs while Empery collects lease revenue is capital-light once the $65 million check clears. And a potential $1 billion in long-term lease payments, if it materializes, would transform the company’s financial profile.
For investors, the key question is execution. Empery has demonstrated an ability to raise capital quickly, having pulled in over $481 million in 2025. The Q3 2026 close date for the deal will be the first real milestone to watch, followed by any announcements about the data center tenant, whose identity has not been disclosed.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
As the effects of the bear market, which has lasted for approximately 9 months, continue, the cryptocurrency analysis company The DeFi Report evaluated Bitcoin’s on-chain data and macroeconomic outlook in its latest video report.
According to analyst Mike’s assessment, while the market is starting to show green lights for “buying,” the possibility that a definitive bottom has not yet been reached remains.
One of the most important technical indicators highlighted in the report is Bitcoin trading below its 200-week moving average (approximately $62,400). Analysts noted that the price is fluctuating between $59,000 and $60,000, adding that historically, Bitcoin hasn’t spent much time below these levels, and this generally signals a significant cycle bottom.
Four out of six key on-chain indicators (KPIs) tracked by The DeFi Report are currently giving a clear bullish signal:
Loss-Making Supply: More than 48% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently at a loss. Looking at the situation of long-term holders, it appears that the market is very close to the lows of past bear markets. Missing Pieces: Two key indicators not giving a bullish signal are the Realized Market Value (RMV) and MVRV ratios. According to analysts, there hasn’t been enough “capital destruction” or change of hands in the market yet to fully confirm the final lows of past cycles. Potential macroeconomic risks that could shake markets and trigger a final wave of capitulations in crypto assets are listed as follows:
Markets are pricing in a 70% probability of a potential interest rate hike in September. The Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation down to 2% could create renewed selling pressure in equity and crypto markets. A sharp 20-25% pullback in NASDAQ or AI-focused technology stocks in general could drag the crypto market down with it. Despite the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising interest rates to 1%, the highest level in 30 years, the continued depreciation of the yen poses a significant risk. This could lead global investors to close their cheap carry trades, resulting in a liquidity crunch. Increased political polarization ahead of the US elections and consumer confidence index hovering at historically low levels are putting indirect pressure on risky assets.
*This is not investment advice.
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Two of the most aggressive corporate Bitcoin buyers just had a very busy June. Strategy Inc. and Strive Inc. collectively added 6,989 BTC to their treasuries, funded almost entirely through preferred equity instruments rather than traditional stock sales or debt offerings.
Strategy picked up 3,625 BTC on a net basis, while Strive added 3,364 BTC. Each company deployed approximately $200 million raised from their respective preferred equity products: STRC for Strategy and SATA for Strive.
The preferred equity playbook Neither company went the conventional route of issuing new common shares or tapping revolving credit lines. Instead, both relied on preferred equity instruments designed to trade near $100 par value with effective yields ranging from 11% to 13% or higher.
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For Strategy, the STRC instrument has become the primary engine for Bitcoin accumulation. The company did sell 32 BTC during the month to cover STRC dividend obligations, which is why the net figure comes in at 3,625 rather than the gross amount purchased.
Strive’s approach was even more front-loaded. The company’s largest single transaction in June was a 2,500 BTC purchase funded almost entirely through SATA proceeds. That single buy accounted for roughly three-quarters of Strive’s monthly total.
The running scoreboard Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings now exceed 845,000 BTC as of early June, roughly 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. Strive, meanwhile, has climbed to nearly 20,000 BTC.
Both companies were buying during a period when Bitcoin prices fluctuated between roughly $60,000 and $65,000. At those levels, each company’s $200 million deployment bought somewhere around 3,000 to 3,500 BTC, which lines up neatly with the reported figures.
The combined haul of nearly 7,000 BTC represents meaningful demand at a time when Bitcoin’s supply dynamics continue to tighten following the April 2024 halving event. Miners now produce roughly 450 BTC per day, meaning Strategy and Strive alone absorbed the equivalent of about 15 days’ worth of new Bitcoin supply in a single month.
Why preferred equity changes the game The 11% to 13% yields on these instruments aren’t trivial, but they’re manageable as long as Bitcoin’s price trajectory cooperates. If Bitcoin appreciates faster than the cost of the preferred dividends, the companies are effectively borrowing at a negative real rate to accumulate a scarce asset.
Strategy’s small 32 BTC sale to cover STRC dividends hints at this dynamic. The company is already using its Bitcoin stash to service the preferred equity, creating a direct link between the treasury’s size and its ability to sustain the financing mechanism.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin price climbed above $60,000 on Wednesday, a level the asset had ceded during the last couple weeks of turbulence, after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told a central bank forum that the threat of persistent inflation had moderated.
The cryptocurrency traded near $60,171 this afternoon, a gain of about 2.7% on the day, with a 24-hour high of $60,474 and a low of $57,718. Trading volume for the session reached $26.68 billion.
Warsh, in remarks at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, said inflation expectations in surveys and bond prices had eased. He paired the observation with a warning that price growth remains too elevated and that the Fed will not accept inflation above its 2 percent target.
“We’re going to deliver price stability,” Warsh said.
Markets read the balance as a tilt toward relief. Bitcoin advanced as U.S. stocks rose and the dollar retreated from a weekly high. A softer dollar tends to lift demand for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
The move offered a reprieve in a hard year. Bitcoin sits about 30% below where it started 2026 and more than $66,000 under its record of $126,277, a slide that has kept the bear-market label in view. Its market value stands near $1.2 trillion.
Strategy (MSTR) and Strive (ASST) jump over 10% at times in intraday trading Bitcoin treasury companies posted sharper gains. Strategy, the software firm turned Bitcoin holder under Michael Saylor, rose close to 7.5% on the day — with highs of 13% during the day. Strive jumped more than 10% at times to $12.02.
Both trade as leveraged proxies for Bitcoin, and their swings tend to exceed those of the coin. Strive has spent 2026 building a treasury that now tops 16,000 BTC, and the stock has climbed more than 100% across three months.
Earlier this week, Strategy released a new Digital Credit Capital Framework that raised the dividend on its STRC preferred shares to 12%, authorized up to $2 billion in share buybacks, and created a bitcoin monetization program allowing limited BTC sales for specific corporate purposes.
The company also established a $2.55 billion U.S. dollar reserve to cover preferred dividends and debt interest, with board rules requiring at least 12 months of coverage at all times. Strategy said any bitcoin sales would be limited to replenishing reserves, funding dividends and interest when preferable to issuing equity, or financing stock buybacks, while reaffirming bitcoin as its primary treasury asset.
Micah Zimmerman
Micah first discovered Bitcoin in 2018 but remained a skeptic on the sidelines for too long. Since 2021, he has covered crypto and business and now works as a news reporter for Bitcoin Magazine, based in North Carolina.
Bitcoin’s latest sell-off intensified as bearish momentum continued building across Binance’s derivatives market. After repeatedly testing lower support levels, Bitcoin [BTC] briefly slipped below $58,000 for the first time since September 2024.
This price drop was accompanied by a net taker volume of about -$330 million. This exceeded the -$311 million that was seen on the 25th of June.
The deeper negative reading shows sellers aggressively crossed the spread instead of waiting for buyers, overwhelming available bids and accelerating the decline.
Source: CryptoQuant At the same time, the 7-day Open Interest trend remains positive. This indicates traders continue to add leverage based on their expectations of further declines in price.
Unless buyer absorption strengthens and aggressive selling subsides, leveraged bearish positioning could keep Bitcoin under sustained downside pressure.
Institutional distribution weakens Bitcoin demand That aggressive sell-side pressure also coincided with a continued deterioration in institutional demand. Rather than absorbing the latest wave of selling, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their distribution trend, shedding more than 100,000 BTC during 2026 alone.
Source: CryptoQuant Furthermore, the total number of BTC sold off by ETF issuers has reached approximately 160,000 BTC since they hit a high-water mark in their reserves in late October 2025. This represents losses totaling more than $11 billion.
Source: CryptoQuant Therefore, it is likely that numerous institutional participants remain underwater. The persistent reduction in the reserves held by the EFTs suggests that EFTs have moved from providing support to Bitcoin’s bull run to creating additional structural supply.
Consequently, if ETF flows do not soon turn positive again and institutional demand continues to weaken. This will then result in an increase in negative pressure for all segments of the overall market.
Can Spot demand replace fading ETF support? There is concern now even though there was a significant amount of Spot buying activity after weeks of ETF selling. The market did not see strong enough demand to sustain the price of Bitcoin above $60,000.
Since then, while there are increasing signs that Long-Term Holders have been accumulating, the absorption of excess supply has continued to be spotty at best.
Also, the Short-Term Holder MVRV still hovers below one. This implies that most new buyers in this period have unrealized losses on their positions.
As such, until Coinbase Premium strengthens and Spot Taker CVD turns decisively positive, weak spot demand could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to renewed downside pressure.
Final Summary BTC faces growing pressure from aggressive selling and persistent ETF outflows. Bitcoin needs stronger Spot demand to stabilize and regain momentum.
DDC Enterprise is buying back its own stock after the market effectively priced the company at 30 cents on the dollar relative to its Bitcoin holdings. The board approved a share repurchase program worth up to $10M or 20% of outstanding Class A shares on June 9, signaling that management thinks Wall Street is dramatically undervaluing what’s sitting on the balance sheet.
Here’s the math that makes this interesting: DDC holds 2,899 BTC valued at roughly $170M as of June 17. The company’s market cap? Approximately $44M. That gives it a market net asset value multiple of about 0.3x, meaning investors can theoretically buy $1 worth of Bitcoin for about 30 cents by purchasing DDC shares.
A food company with a Bitcoin problem (or opportunity) DDC Enterprise started life as an operator of Asian food brands. That business still exists, but the company has pivoted hard into the Bitcoin treasury strategy that MicroStrategy popularized years ago.
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Its shares have been trading between $0.90 and $0.93 in late June and early July 2026, a range that implies the market is either skeptical of the company’s ability to hold and manage its crypto position, or simply hasn’t caught up to the balance sheet reality.
The company raised $124M in equity capital back in October 2025 specifically to fund Bitcoin accumulation. That capital raise has, on paper, generated significant unrealized gains given Bitcoin’s trajectory since then. But the stock price hasn’t followed.
How the buyback works The repurchase program will be funded primarily through free cash flow and operational cash, according to the company’s announcement. DDC also left the door open to using its Bitcoin as collateral in financing arrangements to support the buyback.
The program has a planned capital allocation window of up to 18 months, giving management flexibility on timing. There’s no obligation to repurchase the full $10M.
A $10M buyback against a $44M market cap is meaningful. That’s roughly 23% of the entire company’s public market value being allocated to share repurchases, assuming shares stay near current levels. Even at the stated cap of 20% of Class A shares, this program could materially reduce the float.
What this means for investors A 70% discount to net asset value raises real questions. Can DDC’s underlying food business generate enough cash flow to avoid selling Bitcoin during downturns? What happens to the collateralized financing if Bitcoin drops sharply?
If DDC pledges Bitcoin to borrow money for buybacks and Bitcoin’s price falls sharply, the company could face margin calls or forced liquidation of its crypto position at the worst possible time.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
SPOILER ALERT: Jeff Booth does not know what the world will look like in 2036.
I know, I know… You probably wanted to hear from Jeff — author of The Price of Tomorrow and someone with incredible foresight and vision — that all eight billion of us would be living in the type of abundance he often talks about on podcasts.
You likely wanted to read that Jeff foresees Bitcoin replacing fiat by 2036 and that we’ll all be able to just kick back and relax as we enjoy living in a deflationary system by then.
I, too, was slightly disappointed when he didn’t paint a picture of a Bitcoin-fueled utopia that will exist a decade from now.
That said, in true Jeff Booth fashion, he offered some perspective that was perhaps even more profound than expected:
“It can exist for them right this second,” said Jeff in regard to when people can begin to reap the benefits of existing in a Bitcoin-buoyed system. “The question is ‘Do people move their time and energy to this new system?’”
Leave it to Jeff, someone who I often refer to as the Eckhart Tolle (author of The Power of Now) of Bitcoin to remind us that we don’t have wait for a day in the far off future when Bitcoin has transformed the world, we can begin to use right now it to transform our own personal world and the worlds of those with whom we engage.
“We are the change,” said Jeff. “We always have been.”
There’s just one caveat to Jeff’s message, though…
To fully experience the benefits that Bitcoin offers, we cannot simply view it as another asset within a broken system, we have to see it for what it actually is: a protocol.
Bitcoin As A Protocol According to Jeff, seeing Bitcoin as anything but a protocol will not only result in our not fully benefitting from it, but ultimately in the failure of the protocol itself.
That’s a lot, I know.
Let’s unpack it.
When Jeff looks out at the world, he sees a spectrum of Bitcoin enthusiasts — and, of course, those who will continue to simply dismiss Bitcoin.
The latter will resume focusing their efforts on trying to reform the broken and insolvent system that continues to steal their time and wealth while consistently blaming the powers that be for their lot in life, further handing over their power to those actors in the process.
If you’re reading this article, you’re likely not one of those types. You, instead, exist somewhere on a spectrum of Bitcoin understanding that Jeff has conceptualized.
On one side of that spectrum are those who take risky bets with bitcoin or even with other crypto assets in efforts to get rich quickly. This type lends much of their energy to searching for the next scheme to trade. Very few in this world win big and almost all lose over a longer time horizon.
One level up from that are those who see bitcoin as a store of value. The problem with this perspective is that the asset is trapped within the broken monetary and financial systems instead of replacing them. If bitcoin only remains a store of value, its ownership will continue to centralize over time, leading to a Bitcoin elite, a new breed of kings, as opposed to a world in which all human beings benefit from bitcoin. This scenario will also lead to continued issues with Bitcoin custodians.
“If we continue to have a debt-based system on top of bitcoin, bitcoin will continue to be held by custodians who will get liquidated time and time again as they take risks with their customers’ bitcoin,” said Jeff. “It’ll look like Celsius and BlockFi over and over and over again.”
Finally, there are those who see Bitcoin as a protocol.
They understand that Bitcoin emerges in layers, each of them enabling it to be used more easily and privately as money. It’s those for whom Bitcoin will serve as a true catalyst.
“It’s only if you view Bitcoin through the protocol lens that the world will change for you,” said Jeff.
“Every single other one of those perspectives relies on ‘It’s somebody else, not me.’ But the last one says ‘I create the future from my intention,’” he added.
“So, when we think about 2036, the real question is ‘How many people realize that they have the agency to change the world?’”
While this may seem like a relatively easy question to answer for oneself, it becomes more challenging when considering that we exist in a world that is constantly trying to distract us from what Bitcoin truly is.
Don’t Get Caught From flavor of the month FUD to hero worship, it’s easy to give up your power.
“People often give their agency away to the likes of those who spread fear around quantum computing breaking Bitcoin or to those talking about how Jeffrey Epstein tried to infiltrate Bitcoin Core,” said Jeff.
Much of the Core vs. Knots debate was also driven by fear, which also siphoned people’s power, according to Jeff. With regard to this particular issue, Jeff noticed the name calling and ad hominem attacks, but opted not to contribute to the drama. Instead, he simply saw it as a signal that the issue was worth investigating. He believes that the debate offered people an important opportunity to fight for what they want Bitcoin to be.
“We’re used to seeing only a small part of consensus and not seeing views that are outside of it,” said Jeff. “The consensus mechanism and the agency of all participants fighting for what they see bitcoin as allows each person to see the entire debate and make their choice of what bitcoin is to them.”
Jeff went on to say that instead of being driven by fear and blindly digging in with one side or the other in such debates, it’s important to look inward at these times. Both doing so and advocating for what you want Bitcoin to be is ultimately how the protocol stays safe in his eyes.
“If there are enough hypervigilant people focused on the issues, Bitcoin stays secure,” said Jeff. “If there are enough people building on this and they are all hypervigilant as they build, it stays decentralized.”
Bitcoin enthusiasts also give away their agency to figures in the Bitcoin space who convince them that bitcoin is nothing more than a store of value — digital capital, if you will — according to Jeff.
“If you talk about digital capital and digital assets or building a debt-based system on top of Bitcoin, you aren’t viewing Bitcoin as a protocol,” explained Jeff. “Building a debt-based system on top of Bitcoin is centralizing, which isn’t good for Bitcoin. If you’re trying to concentrate bitcoin and become a new king, then both Bitcoin and the game you’re playing will ultimately fail.”
Jeff attributes the fact that some aren’t able to see how building a system that resembles the system Bitcoin was designed to replace is ultimately doomed to the notion that many are trapped in old mental models. In other words, we often bring our baggage from the old system into this new one. Those who see Bitcoin as a protocol, those using it as money in Bitcoin circular economies on a day-to-day basis, fundamentally understand Bitcoin through a different lens. They intuitively know that every choice, want, and need is a choice to distribute value or give value. And as bitcoin becomes more ubiquitous as money, then those playing financial games with bitcoin will ultimately be forced to give up their coins.
“You can try to create debt on top of bitcoin, but, eventually, as Bitcoin adoption increases, prices will begin falling so fast that those trying to centralize Bitcoin will have to figure out a way to deliver value to society in excess of what they’re spending to pay back and service their debt, which they won’t be able to do, forcing them to distribute their bitcoin,” said Jeff.
In short, Bitcoin inevitably liquidates those playing a zero-sum game; therefore, according to Jeff, it’s best to focus on what you’re doing to provide value to the world rather than focusing on how prominent figures in the Bitcoin space are rebuilding the same type of debt-based system that we’re trying to escape on top of bitcoin.
Why Bitcoin Remains Decentralized and Secure For this issue, the editorial staff and writers involved have presupposed that Bitcoin is still sufficiently decentralized and secure come 2036. The truth is, though, as Jeff points out, if we all don’t claim our own power and embrace Bitcoin as a protocol, then it centralizes and fails.
Put another way, Bitcoin is not inevitable.
Yet, at the same time, Jeff is all but 100% convinced that Bitcoin does, in fact, succeed.
Why is that? you might ask.
Well, to use Jeff’s own words, he believes that Bitcoin will win because he “believes in us.”
Now, I know what you might be thinking: How could Jeff believe in us?… I mean, has he seen all the pleb slop out there? Has he seen how quickly many have been to abandon their Bitcoin vision and morals in pursuit of fiat gains? And does he think we’re all as good at thinking for ourselves as he is?
While I didn’t ask Jeff those questions, I’d imagine his answers to the second and third ones are “yes” and that he’s too humble to even respond to the final one. And as for the first question, he answered it without my posing it to him directly.
“As time goes on, more and more people discover what Bitcoin truly is, and each of them begins to move their agency into this space,” he explained. “In the process, people discover that their agency matters and that they can bend reality to their will. And when we share different thoughts about Bitcoin with others, it opens people’s minds, further causing them to shift their time and energy. I’m so positive that Bitcoin succeeds because I believe in the best in us, and I’ve already seen so many people move their time into this space and how that has had such a positive impact on them.”
Still, Jeff, c’mon! Most of us are still simply trying to convince our friends and family members that Bitcoin isn’t a scam, much less something that they should be moving their time and energy into. Even the idea of moving one’s time and energy into Bitcoin seems like an abstract and foreign concept to most people today.
Jeff gets that, too. And so he offered a caveat:
“Not everybody has to move their time — only a small fraction do.”
Now, given that my intention in writing this piece isn’t simply to help share Jeff’s perspective but to encourage you to embrace your own agency and power, I’m not going to share how much that small fraction is composed of in Jeff’s mind. Doing so might put you back into the mindset you may have had before you started reading this piece, the “Bitcoin is inevitable, and my efforts mean nothing in regard to its success or failure” mindset. Since that’s neither productive nor empowering, let’s not go there. The point is that Jeff believes that there are enough of us out there who will “hold the line and fight for freedom” as we work to maintain what he terms “the honest chain.”
“__% of people will cheat and go back to the dishonest chain,” said Jeff. “They’ll tell themselves ‘I needed to do it for my family.’ Deep down, they won’t have wanted to move to the dishonest chain, but they will feel that the consequences of not doing so were just too great. So, they’ll take the bribe. They’ll tell themselves ‘If not me, somebody else will do it, and I have to do it, too.”
Though that remaining percentage of people who support the honest chain may be small, it will be more than enough to have the balance of most people eventually move with them, according to Jeff.
“That small group forces a foundation from which others can benefit,” said Jeff.
A beautiful dimension of Bitcoin is that it’s a group, as opposed to a single figure, that keeps the network safe. And what shields this group is that Bitcoin enables them to remain anonymous. This can be contrasted with public leaders or religious figures who’ve challenged power and been martyred for it.
“Those leaders and religious figures had to be killed because they were open and very dangerous to the system of power,” said Jeff. “Now, those who want to stand up for what’s right no matter what to keep Bitcoin protected can do so because privacy is built into its layers. If this fight were occurring in the open, the intransigent minority, those who want to stand up for what is right, would be knocked off in time; it would be too dangerous for them to stand up.”
In this light, Bitcoin could be viewed as the greatest tool for human liberation we’ve ever seen. And the most exciting part is, we may have all of the components we need to scale it securely and in a manner that offers people transactional privacy.
Scaling Bitcoin: We May Already Have All We Need Given how often Jeff refers to scaling Bitcoin in layers, I asked him how many layers he envisions Bitcoin having by 2036, anticipating that he had some ideas for layers that few of us could have yet conceptualized.
To my surprise, his answer to my question was direct: “I think we have almost everything already.”
(LFG.)
“We have Bitcoin, composed of energy, mining, and the consensus rules,” began Jeff. “Next, we have Lightning, Liquid, Ark, etc. This is the transport layer where you can now transport value instantly at very fast speeds. On top of or integrated with that, you have fedimints for ecash, the privacy layer. We also have Nostr, the identity layer, web of trust, and privacy layer. And that might be all we require. Everything there is enough to enable all applications to take part in the first global free market that’s ever existed.”
But what about a capital markets layer? Will we see tokenized assets on a Bitcoin layer by 2036, or at any point in the future for that matter?
According to Jeff, that’s a hard “no.”
“Tokenization is part of the fiat scam,” said Jeff. “The idea with tokenization is that people are going to take more assets and drive more money into those assets. In the world I’m talking about, you don’t need tokenization because the protocol preserves value for you — everything is priced in prices that are falling.”
According to Jeff, tokenized assets, whether on traditional ledgers (e.g., brokerage accounts) and on blockchains, are part of the current system, which is extractive. In a world underpinned by bitcoin, people won’t need to rely on tokenized assets to preserve their wealth.
“In this new world, capital markets get way smaller,” said Jeff. “In 1900, capital markets only made up about 1% of the economy, and now it’s closer to 40%. Tokenization helps the extractive economy carry on; it becomes unnecessary in a world in which Bitcoin succeeds as a protocol.”
Jeff contextualized his point by describing how he and the team at ego death capital, the Bitcoin venture capital firm that he co-founded, think about making investments in a world where bitcoin continues to appreciate in value.
“At ego death, we deploy risk capital where we think we can exceed a 45% IRR (internal rate of return),” Jeff explained. (Bitcoin’s IRR over the past 15 years is approximately 45%.) “Most startups don’t get funded with debt. Family and friends typically fund startups and what they’re doing is saying ‘I believe you can do this,’ while not necessarily considering the fact that most startups fail because it’s so hard to create value in the free market. Investors only come in when they see a startup starting to win and when they think a business will provide tons of value moving forward.”
And most investors in public markets today are only investing because fiat currencies are losing value at such an alarming rate. In a world that’s on a bitcoin standard, speculating in markets as a means to preserve value is no longer necessary.
Start Today Each of our actions in this Bitcoin space have power.
They are helping to chart a course in which, by 2036, there will be exponentially more of us reaping the benefits of living on a bitcoin standard.
While that future surely isn’t promised, Jeff feels confident that we’re on the right path.
“Our future is created by these collisions of us talking to each other, learning from one another, and expanding our knowledge to other people,” he explained.
Plus, the longer Jeff works with and invests in high-integrity builders in the Bitcoin space, the more confident he feels that Bitcoin remains decentralized and secure, as it must for it to succeed.
With that said, Jeff understands that many will sell out as the fight continues to be brought to Bitcoin’s doorstep, which is why he says that we should feel free to “slay our heroes.” Instead, he believes, we should look within ourselves for answers.
The Bitcoin story isn’t one of looking out to or up to; it’s one of looking inward and embracing responsibility and critical thinking, both of which are necessary in pursuit of increased personal power and agency.
If we want a world transformed by Bitcoin in 2036, we have to start by making the essential personal transformations and moving more of our time and energy into Bitcoin today.
Don’t miss your chance to own The 2036 Issue — featuring articles written by many influential figures in the space pondering the challenges of the next decade!
This piece is featured in the latest Print edition of Bitcoin Magazine, The 2036 Issue. We’re sharing it here as an early look at the ideas explored throughout the full issue.
President Donald Trump is officially a crypto billionaire, with proceeds from his memecoin and family crypto company accounting for the bulk of his digital assets fortune. But the commander-in–chief has also shown an appetite for blockchain-related stocks and more exotic cryptocurrencies, according to a filing from the U.S. Office of Government Ethics released on Tuesday.
Trump’s business entities generated more than $635 million in royalty income from his memecoin and almost $600 million through World Liberty Financial—a crypto company he cofounded with his three sons, longtime business associate Steve Witkoff, and Witkoff’s two sons. And the president pocketed nearly $197 million through DT Marks SC, a company that owns 38.5% of Stablecoin Holdco, a Miami-based stablecoin venture.
Trump also has exposure to more niche digital assets through his crypto businesses. The entity connected to World Liberty Financial received more than $33 million in annual income from Bitcoin and over $150 million from Ethereum over the course of 2025, plus about $1.8 million from staked Ethereum. Through another company named DT Marks Defi, the president also earned more than $5 million across several altcoins, including LINK, AAVE, ENA, MOVE, and ONDO, and over $56 million from the stablecoin USDC. The president’s financial disclosure did not clearly specify how these crypto positions generated income. “Neither the president nor his family has ever engaged—or will ever engage—in conflicts of interest,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, told Fortune in a statement.
A January Wall Street Journal investigation revealed that the Trump family secretly sold a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial to Aryam Investment 1, a company backed by Abu Dhabi royal Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who serves as the United Arab Emirates’ national security adviser. According to the president’s latest financial disclosure, his entities DT Marks Defi and DT Marks SC realized nearly $263 million in net proceeds from the sale.
World Liberty Financial did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Trump’s disclosure also showed active trading of MSTR shares, tied to Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, across multiple investment accounts. These $15,000 to $50,000 trades gave him indirect exposure to Bitcoin. In addition, Trump’s disclosure showed buying and selling Coinbase and Robinhood shares in different investment accounts. (Previously the President’s son Eric Trump has argued that his father’s investment holdings “are maintained exclusively in fully discretionary accounts managed by independent third-party financial institutions.” He denied that the president, his family and The Trump Organization has any role in selecting, directing, approving, influencing or soliciting specific investments.)
Michael Saylor, Strategy’s executive chairman, emerged as a key crypto ally to the Trump White House. The pioneer of the world’s largest Bitcoin asset treasury attended the president’s first crypto summit at the White House in March 2025. Eric Trump has also previously stated that he and Saylor had a friendship spanning two decades.
The prominence of crypto in Trump’s financial portfolio comes amid ongoing scrutiny of his ties to the industry. Since taking office, Trump has faced questions over his proximity to multiple crypto ventures while advancing a crypto-friendly agenda. Lawmakers have raised conflict of interest concerns, which the president has repeatedly rejected. The disclosure also lands as senators push to pass the Clarity Act, a bill that would regulate crypto market structure. Critics argue the current draft lacks adequate ethics safeguards.
“The crypto legislation heading to the Senate floor must prevent the president, vice president, senior administration officials, members of Congress, and their families from profiting off the crypto industry,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren in a statement on Tuesday.
Bitcoin made notable strides on Wednesday, rallying to as high as $60,200 before retreating to an intraday low of $57,737. The world’s largest cryptocurrency still managed to recover roughly 2.7% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, Ether posted a 3% gain, and Solana surged by 4.85%, signaling a broader rebound across major digital assets.
Markets bounce back, but investor caution prevailsDespite the apparent recovery in prices, investor sentiment remains distinctly cautious. Key “fear and greed” indicators, which track the emotional state of the crypto market, are currently hovering around 11 out of 100. This figure firmly places the market in the “extreme fear” zone, highlighting significant apprehension among investors. Notably, even with the recent rebound, Bitcoin is still down by nearly a third year to date.
While Bitcoin has enjoyed a short-term recovery, broader market data suggests that investor confidence has yet to stabilize in any meaningful way.
ETF outflows clash with long-term accumulationAnalyzing the available data reveals diverging trends in investor behavior. Spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the United States have recently experienced notable outflows, outpacing inflows for several consecutive weeks. In June alone, a staggering $4.5 billion left these funds—a record for monthly withdrawals since the ETFs debuted.
In contrast, on chain data points to large-scale long-term accumulation. Over the past two weeks, long-term holders have reportedly added approximately 270,000 BTC to their portfolios. This wave of buying suggests that influential investors have interpreted the recent price correction as a strategic buying opportunity rather than a reason to sell.
Leverage builds up in a critical price rangeOne of the most closely watched short-term metrics has been the funding rate, which has remained positive for three straight days. In practical terms, this means that despite Bitcoin’s tests of new lows, bullish leverage trades continue to dominate. Such concentrated leverage on one side of the market, especially with tepid price action, can heighten the risk of increased volatility.
Recent data from three leading exchanges shows that leveraged positions have piled up most densely between $57,000 and $60,500—the same price corridor where Bitcoin has been trading since the end of June. Outside this range, specifically above $61,000 and below $56,000, the intensity of these positions drops off dramatically.
This distribution reveals that forced liquidations are clustered close to the current trading range. Should Bitcoin break upward past $61,000 or fall below $56,000, analysts anticipate that price swings could quickly become much more dramatic.
The first 24 hour outlook remains neutralIn the near term, the overall outlook is considered neutral. To confirm a clearer shift in trend, both Bitcoin’s price and leveraged positions would need to demonstrate simultaneous growth. However, the latest data indicates that this alignment has not yet materialized.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
$MSTR surged as much as 13% on Wednesday, extending a rebound that began Monday when Michael Saylor unveiled Strategy's new Digital Credit Capital Framework. The stock closed at $97.22 on July 1, up from a two-year low of $82.31 on June 26, a sharp recovery after a heavy pullback from the $130s earlier in June.
What the Framework Actually DoesStrategy adopted the Digital Credit Capital Framework to strengthen its series of preferred securities, enhance liquidity, preserve long-term Bitcoin exposure, and support long-term value creation for shareholders. The package has several moving parts.
The board authorized up to $1 billion of preferred security buybacks and $1 billion of common stock repurchases, though neither program obligates the company to make purchases. On the dividend side, the dividend rate on the Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock ($STRC) was increased from 11.5% to 12% per year.
The most consequential element, however, is the Bitcoin Monetization Program. For a company whose signature promise has been to hoard Bitcoin and never sell, board approval to sell $BTC to pay preferred dividends, replenish its cash reserve, or fund buybacks is a clear shift in posture, even as Strategy insists Bitcoin remains its "primary treasury reserve asset." The authorization covers up to $1.25 billion in $BTC, equivalent to roughly 20,800 coins, or about 2.5% of Strategy's 847,363 $BTC stack.
Strategy says it now holds about $2.55 billion in USD reserves, which Saylor said "should cover the dividend payments for 17.4 months," with a commitment to maintain at least 12 months of coverage.
A Shift in Thesis, or Just Prudent Management?Under Saylor, Strategy pursued an ambitious path of consistent accumulation funded through equity and preferred securities, positioning itself as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin's long-term potential. The new framework marks a departure from that accumulate-only posture.
CFO Andrew Kang said the structure gives Strategy flexibility when monetizing Bitcoin is preferable to issuing common equity, which matters because common equity issuance can pressure shareholders when the stock trades close to net asset value.
The new policy also gives the board a clearer playbook for using Bitcoin holdings as a financial resource rather than a static reserve, which may influence how other companies think about crypto in their own treasury frameworks. Whether that reads as disciplined capital management or a crack in the long-held Bitcoin-maximalist thesis is now the central debate among investors.
Sources
Strategy Official Press Release via Business Wire
CoinDesk: Strategy Announces $2 Billion Buybacks and Bitcoin Monetization Plan
Yahoo Finance: Strategy Rewrites Its Bitcoin Playbook
For years, Strategy Inc. traded at a hefty premium to its Bitcoin stash. Investors were willing to pay more than the underlying crypto was worth just for the privilege of exposure through a publicly traded stock. That era appears to be over.
Bloomberg reports that Strategy’s enterprise multiple to net asset value, known as mNAV, has fallen below 1x. In English: the company’s total enterprise value is now less than the market value of the Bitcoin sitting on its balance sheet. As of late June 2026, Strategy’s enterprise value sat at roughly $50.4 billion, while its 847,363 Bitcoin were worth approximately $51.1 billion.
From premium darling to discount bin The stock, which once traded near $540 in November 2024, has cratered to around $82. That’s an 85% decline from its peak.
Bitcoin’s own trajectory tells much of the story. After surging past $126,000 during the 2025 rally, the largest cryptocurrency has retreated to approximately $60,000. Strategy, which has staked its entire corporate identity on accumulating Bitcoin, absorbed every bit of that decline and then some.
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The company, which rebranded from MicroStrategy in February 2025 to better reflect its Bitcoin-centric mission, essentially operates as a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle. Because investors valued Strategy stock above the Bitcoin it held, the company could issue new shares at inflated prices and use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin. Each share issuance was accretive, meaning existing shareholders got more Bitcoin exposure per dollar invested.
$10 billion in unrealized losses and a shrinking playbook With Bitcoin trading near $60,000, Strategy is now sitting on more than $10 billion in unrealized losses based on the average acquisition cost of its holdings.
The vanishing premium has also killed the equity issuance strategy that fueled the company’s buying spree. To adapt, Strategy has reportedly pivoted toward alternative capital strategies. The company’s playbook now includes debt mechanisms and preferred stock instruments, with plans that could involve up to $1.25 billion in either Bitcoin buybacks or sales. A company that built its brand on never selling Bitcoin is now keeping the option on the table.
Strategy’s balance sheet features a mix of convertible notes, preferred stock offerings, and traditional debt, all layered on top of a single underlying asset.
What this means for investors The mNAV falling below 1x fundamentally changes the investment thesis for Strategy stock. What remains is a stock that gives you slightly less than one dollar of Bitcoin for every dollar you invest, plus corporate debt and preferred stock obligations sitting on top.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs now offer investors direct Bitcoin exposure without the corporate overhead, debt obligations, or management risk that come with owning Strategy stock. When Strategy traded at a premium, it offered something ETFs couldn’t: leveraged upside. At a discount, the value proposition gets murkier.
Investors watching this space should pay close attention to whether Strategy actually executes any Bitcoin sales from that $1.25 billion authorization. The company still holds 847,363 Bitcoin, making it by far the largest corporate holder of the asset.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Strategy Inc. and Strive Inc. are both running perpetual preferred equity instruments backed, at least philosophically, by their Bitcoin treasury positions. One trades at a discount to par. The other is nearly flat.
Strategy’s STRC is currently stabilizing around $85, against a target par value of $100. Strive’s SATA is trading closer to par, somewhere in the $97 to $98 range.
What these instruments actually are Both are Nasdaq-listed perpetual preferred stocks, meaning they have no maturity date and sit ahead of common shareholders when it comes to residual asset claims. Neither is directly collateralized by Bitcoin holdings.
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STRC currently carries a variable dividend yield in the 11.5% to 12% range. SATA offers a slightly higher annualized rate of 13%. Both emerged in 2025 as part of a broader wave of Bitcoin treasury companies trying to raise capital without diluting their common equity or taking on conventional debt.
STRC has more than $10 billion in notional outstanding. SATA sits at roughly $500 million.
What happened in June and why it matters June 2026 was not kind to either security. Leverage unwinds and declining Bitcoin prices pushed both STRC and SATA lower during the month.
SATA made a structural move in mid-June that has become a talking point among investors following these securities. Strive shifted SATA to daily dividend payments, contrasting with STRC’s bi-monthly schedule.
Strategy holds a substantially larger Bitcoin reserve than Strive. The company has accumulated hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin over several years. Strive’s position is estimated at somewhere between 13,000 and 20,000 BTC.
What investors should think about before stepping in STRC trading at $85 against a $100 par target means buyers today are getting the dividend yield plus a potential 17% upside if the instrument ever trades back to par.
SATA trading near par at a 13% annualized rate on a near-par instrument is a cleaner yield calculation than STRC’s discounted setup, which has a return profile that depends heavily on where you think the price goes from here.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has announced a significant shift in its financial strategy, unveiling a $1.25 billion Bitcoin monetization program. This move marks a transition from solely accumulating Bitcoin to actively managing its balance sheet, as the company also increased the dividend on its STRC perpetual preferred stock to 12%. This development comes as Strategy’s USD reserves stand at $2.55 billion, with substantial Bitcoin purchases overshadowing U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. The market is now assessing whether this strategy pivot indicates a halt in the company’s previously aggressive Bitcoin accumulation approach.
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The impact of this announcement is reflected in the prediction markets. Current pricing suggests a high likelihood of Bitcoin maintaining a value above $54,000 on July 2, with some markets pricing in a near certainty. The strategic use of Bitcoin as a capital tool appears to be interpreted by market participants as a positive financial indicator, potentially bolstering confidence in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Key Takeaways Strategy’s $1.25 billion Bitcoin monetization program and increased STRC dividend suggests a strategic shift towards active balance sheet management. Market pricing indicates high confidence in Bitcoin maintaining a value above $54,000 by July 2, 2026. The company’s move is seen as a positive indication of financial health, likely influencing Bitcoin’s price in the short term. What to Watch Observers will closely monitor Strategy’s subsequent actions and whether its shift in strategy affects Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Key factors include further announcements from Strategy and broader market reactions to Bitcoin’s monetization. Additionally, developments related to Bitcoin ETF inflows and regulatory actions could either support or challenge the current pricing expectations.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h July 2 99.8% — — View market → July 2 99.9% — — View market → July 2 0.7% — — View market → July 2 0.1% — — View market → July 2 99.9% — — View market → July 2 2026 76.5% — — View market → July 2 2026 97.8% — — View market → July 2 2026 13.7% — — View market → July 2 2026 99% — — View market → July 2 2026 0.2% — — View market → July 2 2026 0.2% — — View market →
The Bitcoin [BTC] halving is often misinterpreted as an instant price catalyst.
In reality, it works through a gradual supply reduction effect, supported by Bitcoin’s technical setup. Notably, major upside phases have occurred in the 12-18 months after a halving, rather than immediately. After the 2016 halving, for instance, Bitcoin saw its main expansion in 2017, gaining over 1,000%. Similarly, after the 2020 halving, the strongest upside played out through 2020-2021, with a full-cycle rally of roughly 60%.
By contrast, the second halves (H2) of 2018 and 2022 are widely viewed as late-cycle drawdowns. In 2018, Bitcoin fell 40%-45% in the second half of the year. In 2022, it fell 15%-20% before bottoming toward year-end. Taken together, it does appear that H2 weakness in those cycles reflects a “post-halving cooling phase.”
Source: TradingView (BTC/USD) Bitcoin cycle tested as 2026 moves into H2 phase The crypto market has officially stepped into the H2 phase of the 2026 cycle.
So far, the cycle structure is broadly tracking Bitcoin’s post-halving behavior seen in 2018 and 2022. Bitcoin is closing H1 down over 30%, which is similar in character to H1 2018 (down nearly 54%) and H1 2022 (down over 56%). In this context, 2026 looks consistent with a post-halving cooldown phase following the 2024 halving, which cut Bitcoin’s block subsidy from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.
If the same playbook holds, Bitcoin could be on track to close H2 in the red. This is also supported by K33 Research Senior Analyst Vetle Lunde, who noted:
The 2022 Bitcoin drawdown lasted for 286 days. In the 2014 and 2018 bear markets, the bottoms occurred 12-13 months after the bear markets began, with a max drawdown of 84-85%. If history is to repeat, a bottom could be expected to form near year-end.
In this context, the roughly 30% H1 drawdown this year can still be viewed as part of a broader post-halving cooldown phase.
However, the 2025 cycle stands out as the first time Bitcoin closed H2 down over 18%. That’s historically unusual and raises a key question: Did 2025 break the post-halving pattern? If so, does it imply Bitcoin is diverging from the 2018 and 2022-style H2 drawdowns, potentially setting up a different trajectory for 2026?
Late-cycle dynamics shift toward liquidity stress To understand what to expect in H2 2026, it’s worth taking a step back.
Following Bitcoin’s major expansion phases in 2017 and 2021, the subsequent bear markets of 2018 and 2022 can be considered part of a broader post‑halving normalization. During these periods, the market digested prior gains, locked in profits from earlier rallies, and ultimately transitioned into large‑scale distribution and deleveraging.
However, the similarities between the second halves of 2018 and 2022 go beyond just that structural setup. Both periods shared a similar macro backdrop. In 2018, the Fed raised interest rates four times over the year, tightening liquidity conditions. Similarly, the 2022 bear market was largely driven by the collapse of Terra, alongside a tight liquidity backdrop, as highlighted in a post by Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity.
Source: X Against this backdrop, calling the 2018 and 2022 H2 bear markets a “cooldown phase” may be premature.
According to AMBCrypto, this is where Bitcoin’s path into H2 2026 can be better analyzed. And one factor that may sit at the center of this discussion is not just halving structure, but “liquidity.”
Cycle history meets new market structure in Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook The macro backdrop in 2026 has, so far, closely resembled the previous two post-halving bear markets.
From a macro perspective, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept the newly appointed Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, cautious on rate cuts, with markets increasingly pricing in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. The economic data supports this, with U.S. inflation rising to a two-year high of 4.2% in May, keeping liquidity conditions tight.
Against this backdrop, H2 appears set to be another challenging period for Bitcoin. However, this is where the current cycle starts to diverge. Unlike the previous two post-halving cycles, the current liquidity backdrop is stronger. While Bitcoin’s supply remains fixed, liquidity across the broader crypto market has expanded, a trend also highlighted in Fidelity’s latest report:
Crypto bull markets have often been fueled by new trends that bring fresh money into the market. The 2020–2021 cycle, for example, was driven by the rise of NFTs and memecoins. Today, new growth areas such as RWA tokenization, stablecoins, and AI-powered crypto applications are gaining momentum. If these sectors continue to grow, they could bring new capital into crypto.
Now, the focus shifts to the on-chain growth across these sectors. The key question is whether the liquidity flowing into these projects is large enough to support sustained capital inflows across the broader market. If it is, Bitcoin could begin to diverge from the post-halving patterns seen in 2018 and 2022.
If not, the current macro backdrop, combined with the post-halving cooldown phase, could keep pressure on BTC through H2. In that case, Bitcoin could finish the second half in the red, potentially pulling the broader crypto market to its first double-digit annual decline since the 2022 bear market.
The liquidity landscape is changing, but can Bitcoin benefit? The growth across these sectors is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Reflecting this shift, Stellar President Denelle Dixon said at the start of 2026:
On-chain finance is entering an era of exponential growth, and 2026 will be all about acceleration, not experimentation. Partners like PayPal and MoneyGram have already brought stablecoins into the mainstream, and we’ll continue to see deeper, trusted integration into the everyday financial system.
The on-chain data largely supports that view. In the RWA sector, tokenization has accelerated rapidly this year, with the total value of tokenized assets climbing to nearly $40 billion, a 90% year-to-date increase. However, the liquidity picture is more mixed. The stablecoin market (the crypto market’s primary liquidity source) has contracted by roughly $11 billion in market cap.
In essence, liquidity isn’t spreading evenly but remains concentrated in a few growth sectors. Despite not fully aligning with previous post-halving patterns, Bitcoin’s H2 2026 outlook therefore is still being shaped more by a volatile macro backdrop, which is keeping liquidity tight going into H2.
As a result, uneven capital flows across crypto are limiting a broad-based bullish Bitcoin cycle.
K Wave Media had a Bitcoin strategy. Then it didn’t. On May 6, 2026, the Nasdaq-listed K-Pop and entertainment company sold its entire Bitcoin holdings for $64.2 million, closing the book on a treasury experiment that lasted less than a year.
The company used proceeds from the sale to repay debt, completing a strategic reversal that left KWM holding zero Bitcoin and a very different roadmap than the one it pitched to investors in 2025.
From $1 billion Bitcoin bet to zero Less than a year ago, K Wave Media looked like it was building a serious crypto treasury operation. In 2025, the company secured $1 billion in capital capacity through two separate financing agreements: a $500 million SPA with Anson Funds and a $500 million SEPA with Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.
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The terms were explicit. Eighty percent of net proceeds from certain instruments were designated specifically for Bitcoin purchases. The company followed through, acquiring 88 BTC in July 2025 as the foundation of that strategy.
Then the pivot happened. On May 4, 2026, KWM announced it would redirect up to $485 million of its remaining financing capacity toward artificial intelligence infrastructure initiatives. Two days later, the Bitcoin was gone.
The company also sold its main subsidiary, Play Co., a move designed to eliminate roughly $48 million in debt and liabilities, pending shareholder approval. In a matter of days, KWM went from crypto treasury company to AI infrastructure play.
The market reaction was not subtle Investors who bought into KWM for its Bitcoin exposure were not given much warning. Shares dropped 24% on the day the strategic pivot was announced.
KWM is incorporated in the Cayman Islands and trades on Nasdaq under the ticker KWM. The company’s core business has historically centered on K-Pop content and entertainment.
What this means for corporate Bitcoin holders KWM’s exit is a useful case study in the gap between a company announcing a Bitcoin strategy and actually committing to one. MicroStrategy, now rebranded as Strategy, has held Bitcoin through multiple severe drawdowns and built its entire corporate identity around the position.
The K Wave situation illustrates a specific risk that applies to smaller companies mimicking the treasury playbook: the financing structures used to accumulate Bitcoin often come with conditions, counterparties, and redemption mechanics that can make the position less permanent than it looks from the outside.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin is back above $61,000, but the road there was ugly. The recovery, which played out during Asian trading hours on June 6, followed one of the sharper single-day liquidation events of the year, a cascade that wiped out approximately $1.6 billion in leveraged positions across the crypto market in just 24 hours.
The proximate cause was a U.S. jobs report that nobody on Wall Street wanted to see. The economy added 172,000 jobs in June, against an expectation of 130,000. In English: the labor market was too strong, which means the Federal Reserve has less reason to cut interest rates anytime soon, which means risk assets everywhere took a hit.
When Wall Street sneezes, crypto catches a cold The Nasdaq 100 dropped approximately 5% on June 5, the day the jobs data dropped. Bitcoin followed the broader selloff, briefly touching $59,227 before buyers stepped back in.
Of the $1.6 billion wiped out, $534 million was tied specifically to Bitcoin long positions. Ether contributed another $423 million in liquidations. The overwhelming majority of those positions were longs, meaning traders who had bet on prices continuing higher got caught leaning the wrong way.
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The correlation between crypto and AI-related equities was hard to ignore during the selloff. Both asset classes sold off in near lockstep on June 5.
Altcoins had it worse. Ether posted a weekly decline of around 21.6%, while Solana dropped approximately 23.7% over the same stretch.
The macro backdrop keeping Bitcoin pinned Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase throughout this stretch, oscillating around and below $61,000 as a cluster of macro forces keep a ceiling on the rally. Federal Reserve officials have been careful not to signal any urgency on rate cuts, and the stronger jobs print only reinforces their patience.
ETF flows have added another layer of complexity. Recent outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have chipped away at the buying support that helped drive earlier 2026 highs.
MicroStrategy’s activity has also been on traders’ radar. Reports of potential Bitcoin sales from the company, which became synonymous with aggressive corporate Bitcoin accumulation, have weighed on sentiment.
What this means for investors watching the $60K level The size of the liquidation event matters for what comes next. Forced selling clears out overleveraged positions, which can actually create a cleaner base for the next move higher. With $1.6 billion in positions flushed out in 24 hours, the froth is at least partially removed from the long side of the market.
For traders, the $60,000 level is now the line in the sand. Holding above it keeps the structure constructive. Losing it again risks another round of stop-loss triggered selling in a market that has already shown it has plenty of leveraged exposure left to unwind.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Crypto analyst Aaron Dishner noted that Bitcoin recorded its lowest daily close since September 2024. According to Dishner, this move caused BTC to fall below its short-term support level, briefly forming a new local low around $57,800.
The analyst stated that the current outlook presents a contradictory picture to Bitcoin’s historically positive July performance. Dishner noted that July has historically been a green month for Bitcoin, with previous “bottom year” Julys of 2018 and 2022 seeing BTC recover an average of around 19 percent.
According to Dishner, this scenario could be consistent with a rebound in Bitcoin driven by overselling, continuing towards the weekly TBO Fast line. However, the analyst added that BTC is still strongly trending downwards on both the daily and weekly TBO indicators.
Dishner noted that Ethereum shows a similar picture to Bitcoin, stating that ETH maintains a strong bearish outlook on its daily and weekly TBO indicators. However, he added that the On-Balance Volume moving average lines for both Bitcoin and Ethereum have begun to flatten. According to the analyst, while this doesn’t confirm a new bull trend, it suggests that the current downtrend may be preparing to change character in the short term.
Excluding stablecoins, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is still in a strong bearish zone according to the daily TBO Cloud. However, Dishner noted that the OBV moving average is starting to flatten in this area as well. According to the analyst, similar market structures in past July lows were able to recover towards the weekly TBO Fast line before falling again.
Dishner also stated that a potential July recovery could put pressure on stablecoin dominance. According to the analyst, combined stablecoin dominance was hovering near its accumulation zone target of 13%. However, if Bitcoin experiences a rebound, this rate could fall to the lower band of the daily Cloud, i.e., to 11% or lower.
However, Dishner added that the bigger risks haven’t disappeared. According to the analyst, a similar early warning reversal signal was seen before the June decline. Furthermore, August and September remain historically weak months for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, Dishner stated that a potential rally in July should not be considered a confirmation that the long-term bottom has definitively formed, but rather a reaction rally stemming from oversold conditions.
On the altcoin side, according to the analyst, tactical opportunities are emerging in some assets. Dishner stated that Solana is working on a second TBO Close Short signal, which could be a bullish reversal signal in the short term. He noted that there is room for HYPE up to around $79,372, the 1,272 Fibonacci extension level, that a TBT bullish divergence structure is developing in BCH, that XMR could target the TBO resistance at $418.60 in an upward move, and that a second weekly TBT bullish divergence cluster is forming in KAS.
Dishner also noted that altcoins such as ICP, WLD, FET, SEI, WIF, and FARTCOIN are showing signs of rebound or reversal. Conversely, he said that some of the best-performing assets of late, like LAB, are starting to lose momentum.
*This is not investment advice.
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Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana have once again become the focal point of the crypto market after simultaneously flashing monthly buy signals on the TD Sequential indicator. This development has fueled speculation that a long-term bottom might be forming across leading cryptocurrencies; however, analysts warn that the indicator alone does not guarantee the start of a sustained rally.
Unified technical signal emergesCrypto market analyst Ali Martinez reported that all four major cryptocurrencies triggered a TD Sequential buy signal on the monthly chart. Used primarily on higher timeframes, this indicator aims to spot moments when the prevailing trend is losing steam and the stage may be set for a reversal.
Glossary: The TD Sequential, developed by market analyst Tom DeMark, is a technical indicator designed to identify moments when trends are becoming exhausted and a possible reversal is imminent, using specific counting sequences.
The monthly chart is pointing to a simultaneous macro reversal setup. The TD Sequential indicator is giving a buy signal for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.
It is rare for all four major cryptos to show monthly buy signals at the same time. This technical improvement has fostered cautious optimism in the market, especially after the sharp volatility seen in recent weeks.
Latest on prices and futures marketsAccording to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $59,947.31, Ethereum at $1,615.92, XRP at $1.05, and Solana at $77.45. Analysts note that these large-cap assets are presenting a more positive picture compared to earlier market turbulence.
AssetPriceOpen Futures InterestBitcoin$59,947.31$8.50 billionEthereum$1,615.92$21.99 billionXRP$1.05$2.31 billionSolana$77.45$5.58 billionCoinGlass data shows the open interest in Bitcoin futures on Binance stands at $8.50 billion. Open interest for Ethereum has reached $21.99 billion. XRP and Solana report figures of $2.31 billion and $5.58 billion, respectively. This data suggests that interest in the derivatives market persists, indicating continued engagement from traders and investors.
ETF flows reflect ongoing cautionUS spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows totaling $222.60 million on July 1. Despite this, the total net inflows since these products launched have reached $51.59 billion. This pattern shows that while some investors are taking short-term profits, the broader trend has not been completely disrupted.
Spot Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, recorded a net outflow of 16,715.33 ETH on June 30. Although institutional players continue to display caution, sentiment around longer-term demand remains upbeat.
Monthly buy signals may signal weakening selling pressure, but further confirmation is needed for a sustained recovery.
In the coming weeks, if Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana manage to hold above current price levels, strengthen ETF inflows, see a rise in open interest, and log increased buying volumes, the probability of a broader crypto market recovery will likely increase.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Bitcoin Rallied To $82,000 In April Then Reversed HardCrypto entered Q2 with momentum, with Bitcoin and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) both climbing roughly 20% from early April as geopolitical anxiety briefly eased and institutional demand improved.
That recovery didn’t hold. Three forces hit at once: oil prices spiked with Brent crude hitting $126.41, the Fed turned more hawkish, and capital started rotating into AI stocks where earnings momentum stayed intact.
The divergence became clear toward the end of May.
Bitcoin now sits near $60,000, roughly 52% below its all-time high of $126,000 set in late 2025.
All Three Major Demand Channels Weakened At The Same TimeCoin Metrics identified three pillars that normally support Bitcoin’s price, which all cracked in Q2.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs started strong with a single-day inflow peak of $474 million on April 20, then flipped.
Outflows dominated the rest of the quarter with 53 outflow days against just 30 inflow days. June alone accounted for $3.84 billion of the quarter’s total $4.08 billion in net outflows.
MSTR buying pace slowed materially as STRC fell to a record low near $74 and its mNAV compressed toward 1.0, weakening the funding mechanism behind its accumulation.
The stablecoin market contracted by $4.2 billion across Q2, removing a layer of dry powder that supports on-chain activity.
The Market Enters Q3 Deleveraged But ThinnerCombined Bitcoin and Ethereum long liquidations totaled $8.35 billion across Q2, with more than half occurring between May 25 and June 7 as overleveraged longs were flushed out.
Bitcoin open interest fell 32% from its peak to $33.5 billion, while Ethereum open interest dropped 40% to $16.2 billion.
Bitcoin’s orderbook depth declined from nearly $70 million in early May to roughly $35 to $40 million by late June, leaving the market thinner and more sensitive to selling pressure heading into Q3.
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Crypto exchange balances saw a notable withdrawal wave heading into July 1, with USDC and Bitcoin leading approximately $850 million in net outflows from centralized platforms. The move adds another layer to a market already watching liquidity, ETF flows, and investor positioning closely.
TL;DR Centralized exchanges reportedly saw around $850 million in net withdrawals over 24 hours. USDC led stablecoin outflows with about $503 million leaving exchanges. Bitcoin recorded around $352.7 million in net withdrawals over the same period. Exchange outflows are wallet movements, not direct evidence of spot buying or selling. Exchange flows are useful because they show where traders are moving assets, but they need careful interpretation. A withdrawal does not tell us exactly what the owner plans to do next. It may reflect self-custody, institutional settlement, collateral movement, treasury management, or DeFi deployment.
USDC leads the stablecoin move The largest reported component of the outflow was USDC, with roughly $503 million leaving centralized exchanges. Stablecoin withdrawals can mean several things. Sometimes traders are moving dollars on-chain to use in DeFi. Sometimes market makers are shifting liquidity between venues. Sometimes funds are simply being pulled into custody after a trading period ends.
Because USDC is widely used as a settlement asset, its movement can offer clues about where liquidity may appear next. If stablecoins leave exchanges and move into wallets or protocols, that may support on-chain activity. If they move into custody and stay idle, the signal is more defensive.
Bitcoin withdrawals add a second signal Bitcoin also saw significant reported withdrawals, with around $352.7 million in net outflows during the same 24-hour window. BTC leaving exchanges is often interpreted as a sign of holding conviction because coins moved into self-custody are usually less immediately available for sale.
That reading is useful, but it should not be pushed too far. Large holders can move coins between wallets for operational reasons. Institutions can rebalance custody arrangements. Traders can withdraw funds without making a long-term investment statement. The signal is strongest when exchange outflows persist across several days and align with improving price action.
A market looking for cleaner signals The latest outflow wave comes as Bitcoin and the wider crypto market are searching for direction after a difficult June. Spot ETF flows have weakened, US demand indicators remain mixed, and traders are watching liquidity closely. In that environment, exchange reserve data can help show whether investors are preparing to sell or moving assets away from trading venues.
For now, the takeaway is balanced. USDC and Bitcoin withdrawals suggest capital is moving off centralized exchanges, which can be constructive if it reflects custody confidence or on-chain deployment. But the data does not prove immediate buying pressure. It is one piece of the market puzzle, and it becomes more meaningful if the trend continues through the next several sessions.
For readers, the cleanest takeaway is to separate the raw data from the market interpretation. The figures are useful because they show how capital is moving, but they should still be read alongside price action, liquidity conditions, and the wider risk environment.
This report is based on information from CryptoQuant.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
Interest in AAVE, which experienced billions of dollars in outflows following the KelpDAO attack in April, continues to grow.
At this point, AAVE has recently managed to get on the radar of corporate companies, and has also experienced a huge surge in the number of new wallets.
Cryptocurrency analytics platform Santiment has reported that the DeFi lending protocol Aave (AAVE) has reached its highest daily number of new wallets since 2021. According to Santiment, this signals a recovery in DeFi.
According to data shared by Santiment, the number of wallets opened on Aave on the Ethereum network on June 30th reached 1806. This was the highest daily number of wallets recorded since October 2021.
Santiment stated that it sees this increase in AAVE as a sign of new participants entering the DeFi ecosystem.
The firm stated that, from a price perspective, this is the kind of signal investors want to see as July begins.
“…Last week, AAVE, ranked 46th by market capitalization, experienced a 23% increase.”
Furthermore, the emergence of new wallets at this rate indicates growing interest in AAVE and supports its price momentum. If this new participation translates into deposits, borrowing demand, and protocol revenue, AAVE could be poised for an even stronger recovery in the second half of 2026.”
Despite falling approximately 2.4% in the last 24 hours, AAVE has gained about 13% in value over the past week. Having approached $100 last week, AAVE was negatively impacted by the sharp drop in Bitcoin and fell to around $86.
As expectations for AAVE continue to grow recently, Standard Chartered and Grayscale have also issued bullish forecasts for the company. Accordingly, Standard Chartered predicts that the AAVE price could reach $3,500 by 2030, while Grayscale forecasts it could reach $175 within a year.
*This is not investment advice.
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Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said that signals indicating a long-term market reversal are emerging in major crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin. According to Martinez, the Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential indicator is giving a bullish signal for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana on the monthly charts.
The analyst noted that trend exhaustion signals, especially those seen in higher timeframes like monthly charts, are significant. Martinez stated that in the past, multiple major crypto assets simultaneously generating monthly bullish signals indicated seller fatigue and long-term market lows.
Another data point highlighted by Martinez concerned the profit and loss status of Bitcoin’s supply. According to the analyst, for the first time in this cycle, the amount of Bitcoin held at a loss reached 10.45 million BTC, surpassing the 9.60 million BTC held at a profit.
Martinez said that the fact that more than half of the circulating Bitcoin supply is at a loss indicates that the speculative bubble in the market has largely cleared. The analyst argued that such crossovers have only been seen very close to major cycle bottoms in Bitcoin’s 15-year history.
Looking at past examples, a similar intersection first occurred in September 2011, and Bitcoin bottomed out in November 2011, starting a new bull market. The second intersection took place in September 2014, and after the market consolidated under these conditions until October 2015, it entered a new expansion period.
The third intersection, seen in November 2018, coincided with one of the harshest periods of the bear market. Following this, Bitcoin began a new bull cycle in March 2019. A similar intersection occurred during the liquidity crisis of March 2020, but this lasted only 17 days, and Bitcoin recorded a strong recovery by April 2020.
According to Martinez, the first supply intersection of the current cycle officially occurred in June 2026, and the metrics have continued to move in the opposite direction since then. The analyst argued that while such periods have lasted from a few weeks to a few months in past data, Bitcoin is currently trading in a region of high-reliability accumulation.
*This is not investment advice.
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Bitcoin reclaimed the $60,000 level, lifting major cryptocurrencies higher suggesting a potential long-term buying opportunity may be emerging despite lingering downside risks.
Notable Statistics:
Coinglass data shows 97,328 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for $398.51 million. SoSoValue data shows net outflows of $222.6 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $27.6 million. In the past 24 hours, top gainers include MemeCore, Jupiter and Venice Token. Notable Developments:
Trader Notes:
Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez says the monthly charts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Solana are flashing Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential buy signals, a technical indicator often associated with trend exhaustion and potential reversals.
This suggests selling pressure may be fading and could mark the formation of a long-term market bottom.
Trader Jelle explained that historically Bitcoin bear markets have tended to bottom roughly a year after they begin, despite sentiment often feeling most pessimistic near the end of the cycle.
If the current cycle follows a similar timeline, the market could be about 75% through the downturn, indicating that the final phase of the bear market may be approaching. However, analysts caution that history does not guarantee the same outcome.
Trader KillaXBT expects short-term relief for Bitcoin despite maintaining a bearish longer-term outlook.
After sweeping major liquidation levels, BTC could stage a temporary rally before potentially making one final move toward the low $50,000 range.
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World launched on July 1 as an onchain prediction market on Solana (SOL), live in Phantom Wallet and using Chainlink oracles to automatically settle trades in the CASH stablecoin.
Its debut adds a Solana-native challenger to a sector Polymarket and Kalshi already lead, where volumes have hit records.
How World Works Inside PhantomWorld operates as a non-custodial protocol rather than a traditional exchange. It routes orders to liquidity providers on Solana and does not hold user funds or run the markets itself. Traders keep positions in their own wallets as tokens until they choose to cash out.
Settlement runs through Chainlink Data Streams and its runtime environment, which feed prices and resolve outcomes with limited human involvement. Winning positions redeem automatically in CASH, a Solana stablecoin.
At launch, World lists short-duration Bitcoin (BTC) up-or-down contracts and markets on the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The debut lands as Solana runs hot.
Solana’s SOL token rose more than 5% on the day and about 16% over the week, according to BeInCrypto data.
Solana (SOL) Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoThe team plans to add sports, politics, and macro markets through July.
World Replaces Kalshi in the WalletThe launch is the public reveal of infrastructure that has quietly run for weeks. Phantom offered Kalshi-powered markets through a DFlow integration from December 2025. It then switched to World for all positions opened on or after June 1.
Full story — what World Prediction Markets does, how it replaced DFlow/Kalshi, and what the disclosure actually says: https://t.co/hMC39dsIHj
— Solana 🧭 Compass (@SolanaCompass) June 30, 2026 Under the old setup, traders redeemed winning positions themselves, whereas World settles them automatically once an event ends.
That switch matters because Phantom reaches roughly 20 million users, giving World immediate distribution without a separate app. Kalshi, meanwhile, remains a formidable rival and is reportedly weighing a $40 billion valuation.
Before the reveal, the project ran a stealth campaign built around a glowing globe and the tagline “Trade Everything.” It even told followers there was “no product.”
“Prediction markets are one of the most powerful applications you can build on a high-performance blockchain. World is designed to show what Solana makes possible: real-time markets, onchain settlement, and a user experience that meets people where they are,” Pedro Miranda, Head of Consumer at the Solana Foundation, said in the launch announcement.
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Can World take on Polymarket and Kalshi?The incumbents carry moats World has not built. Polymarket proved the model in 2024, when more than $3 billion traded on its US presidential market. It has since expanded onto Solana through a February integration with Jupiter, contesting the same turf World now claims.
For the first time, @Polymarket is coming to Solana. On Jupiter.
Integrating Polymarket is primed for making Jupiter the most innovative predictions platform on Solana
Trade all the markets you want. On one onchain platform.
The best user-experience on Solana 🤝
The biggest… pic.twitter.com/lSpxZ93SaK
— Jupiter (@JupiterExchange) February 1, 2026 Their regulatory paths diverge sharply. Kalshi is a US-regulated exchange that beat the CFTC in court in 2024 to list election contracts. Polymarket took the opposite route, paying a $1.4 million CFTC penalty in 2022 that forced it offshore for years.
World sidesteps both, running as a permissionless onchain protocol with no license and no gatekeeper.
That freedom cuts two ways. The non-custodial model removes intermediaries, but it also forgoes the oversight and protections that anchor a regulated venue like Kalshi.
World has not published volume or liquidity figures, so its trading power stays unproven. Prediction markets reward deep books, which produce tighter spreads and steadier pricing. Distribution can pull in users fast, but that kind of depth takes time to build.
Sector momentum still helps, with prediction market open interest hitting a record $1.48 billion in June.
An unaffiliated memecoin using the World name sparked speculation on Pump.fun, though the team confirmed there is no link to it.
Prediction Market Open Interest. Source: X/a16z cryptoWorld’s case rests on distribution and instant onchain settlement, not proven scale. The World Cup becomes the first real test of whether embedded access inside Phantom turns into lasting liquidity.
The Winklevoss twins have transferred about $67 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum to Gemini wallets, with Arkham Intelligence identifying the transactions as matching their usual selling pattern.
Summary
Arkham Intelligence flagged the Winklevoss twins’ $67 million Bitcoin and Ethereum transfers to Gemini as matching previous selloff patterns. Bitcoin remains under pressure as Citigroup cuts its price target and ETF outflows continue weighing on market sentiment. Ethereum holds near key support despite continued treasury purchases from SharpLink and Bitmine failing to offset whale selling. According to blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss moved roughly $60 million in Bitcoin (BTC) and another $7 million in Ethereum (ETH) from custody to hot wallets linked to the Gemini crypto exchange on July 1. Arkham characterized the transfers as consistent with the twins’ previous selloff behavior, although the firm did not confirm that the assets had already been sold.
THE WINKLEVOSS TWINS ARE SELLING BITCOIN
The Winklevoss Twins just moved $60M of BTC to Gemini, and $7M of ETH. This activity pattern matches usual selling patterns (custody > hot wallet).
The Winklevosses still hold over $300M of BTC. They made ~$1.7 Billion from Bitcoin since… pic.twitter.com/OXtxB2QBqO
— Arkham (@arkham) July 1, 2026 The latest transfers come as Bitcoin and Ethereum continue trading under pressure following quarter-end selling and persistent weakness in investor sentiment. Recent price declines have also coincided with reduced expectations that the CLARITY Act will pass this year after U.S. President Donald Trump disclosed a $1.4 billion crypto-related windfall, a development some market participants have linked to shifting legislative expectations.
Since accumulating Bitcoin in 2015, the Winklevoss twins have realized about $1.7 billion in profit, according to Arkham Intelligence. Despite the latest transfers, they still control more than $300 million worth of Bitcoin. The July movement also follows earlier transfers to Gemini, including about $67.5 million in Bitcoin during June and another $130 million moved in March.
Bitcoin continues to face selling pressure Citigroup has turned more cautious on the two largest cryptocurrencies, lowering its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $82,000 from $112,000 while reducing its Ethereum forecast to $2,240 from $3,175.
Bitcoin fell as low as $57,747 over the past 24 hours before recovering to trade near $58,600. Trading volume rose about 9% during the same period, while June recorded roughly $4.5 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, adding to the pressure on market sentiment.
Commenting on current market conditions, crypto analyst Ted Pillows wrote, “Sellers are still dominating, while Coinbase Bitcoin Premium is at its lowest level this cycle.” He added that losing the $57,000-$58,000 support region could expose Bitcoin to a deeper decline toward the $50,000 level.
Ethereum buyers continue accumulating despite weakness Ethereum has also remained under pressure even as several companies continue adding the asset to their corporate treasuries. As previously reported by crypto.news, quarter-end selling, whale distribution, and weak institutional flows have kept Ether pinned near the $1,500 support area despite ongoing buying from public companies.
Corporate accumulation has nevertheless continued. SharpLink recently disclosed the purchase of another 10,000 ETH at an average price of $1,611, spending about $16.1 million to expand its treasury.
Separately, Bitmine acquired 27,084 ETH over the past week, increasing its holdings to more than 5.7 million ETH. According to crypto.news, those purchases have so far failed to offset continued selling by whales and institutional investors.
Ether was trading around $1,572 at the time of writing, down about 1% over the past 24 hours after moving between an intraday low of $1,549 and a high of $1,600. Trading volume also declined during the session.
Crypto.news reported earlier today that the $1,500-$1,510 region remains Ethereum’s most important support zone. A break below that level would invalidate the current consolidation structure and could open the door to declines toward $1,400 before attention turns to the $1,200 area identified by several market participants.
Bull Case Intact Despite Slowing Capital EfficiencyBitcoin's ($BTC) long-term bull thesis remains intact, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, even as the market grapples with declining capital efficiency and sustained selling pressure from early holders.
Ki argues that the current distribution phase is not a sign of structural failure, but rather a broad transfer of supply from long-term Bitcoin holders and miners to US financial institutions and spot ETFs. Ki Young Ju has described Bitcoin's current distribution phase as a major transfer of supply from old market participants to US financial institutions, ETFs, and new long-term holders, arguing that selling by Bitcoin OGs and long-time miners is part of a broad change of hands rather than evidence that the asset has exhausted its cycle.
The scale of institutional absorption underpins his confidence. Since January 2023, Strategy has bought 711,206 BTC and sold only 32 BTC, while ETFs absorbed a further 509,102 BTC between March 2024 and mid-2025, bringing combined absorption to roughly 1,240,808 BTC, yet price returned to near the same level.
Institutional Depth, Not Retail Demand, Is the Key TriggerFor Ki, the next major rally will not be driven by the same retail-led ETF demand that characterized earlier phases of the current cycle. Instead, he argues that the composition of holders matters more than the raw volume of capital entering the market.
If the new owners are institutions capable of attracting larger pools of liquidity over time, he argues, the transition could ultimately support another upward cycle, noting that "for any asset, what ultimately matters is who holds it."
Ki estimates that Bitcoin could enter another parabolic phase if it absorbs more than $1 trillion in realized capital. That threshold has already been approached. Bitcoin's realized capitalization reached an all-time high of $1.125 trillion as of late 2025, a metric that values each bitcoin at the price it last moved, highlighting actual capital inflows rather than speculative price action.
Ki also pointed to gold's roughly $27 trillion market value as a long-run benchmark, suggesting significant room remains for Bitcoin to grow if institutional adoption deepens. As Bitcoin matures, its price behavior is diverging from previous cycles, with the asset reaching an all-time high market cap of approximately $2.5 trillion as of October 2025, making it significantly larger in scale and more liquid than before.
The picture is not without risk. CryptoQuant data shows overall Bitcoin demand, including speculative and spot demand, contracting at a monthly pace of roughly 232,000 BTC, with analysts arguing the correction is tied directly to demand conditions rather than equities or broader macro indicators. Ki himself has warned that a prolonged sideways market, rather than a sharp crash, could prove the harder test for the current cycle's structural supports.
Sources
Bitcoin's Great Wealth Transfer May Fuel Next Rally, Says CryptoQuant CEO (NewsBTC via TradingView)
Bitcoin's Realized Cap Holds at Record High Over $1 Trillion (CoinDesk)
Is Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Over? (Fidelity Digital Assets)
A Substantial Crypto StakeThe Executive Branch Personnel Public Financial Disclosure Report (OGE Form 278e) covering the 2025 calendar year was officially received by the OGE on June 29, 2026, after the Vice President was “granted a 45-day extension to file.”
This substantial holding explicitly links a top executive branch official to the digital currency market.
Broader Financial ManeuversBeyond his cryptocurrency stash, the Vice President‘s disclosure outlines a series of traditional market transactions executed throughout 2025.
While Vance held his crypto assets, he actively deployed capital into large blocks of index funds and sold off specific venture capital interests.
Most notably, on a single day—June 27, 2025—Vance executed purchases across major exchange-traded funds that exceeded $1.25 million in combined minimum value.
Key 2025 TransactionsThe following table outlines the most significant non-crypto trades disclosed in the Vice President’s filing.
These purchases demonstrate that while the Vice President maintains a footprint in the digital asset space with Bitcoin, the volume of his recent transactional portfolio remains heavily anchored in mainstream, diversified index funds.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Image via Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, recorded a weekly candlestick below its critical 200-week moving average (WMA) for the first time since October 2023.
According to market experts, the 200-week moving average is historically considered the ultimate “line” separating bull and bear markets. Therefore, when Bitcoin falls below this level, it is accepted that there will be a change in the long-term trend, and it is predicted that this break could determine Bitcoin’s next price movement.
Furthermore, Bitcoin also recorded its worst monthly close since June 2022. Despite Bitcoin falling by approximately 20% in June (its worst monthly performance since June 2022), the risk of further decline does not appear to be over.
Market analyst Omkar Godbole argues in his latest analysis that despite Bitcoin experiencing a 20% drop in June, a strong bearish Marubozu pattern has formed on its chart.
According to the analyst, the Marubozu pattern is a full candlestick with almost no wick, indicating that the market was controlled by sellers throughout June.
Therefore, in the market, this formation is generally seen as a signal that a strong downtrend will continue.
Due to this technical formation, the analyst predicts that BTC could experience one more drop to between $48,000 and $55,000, which could form a potential bottom.
*This is not investment advice.
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Bitcoin continues to experience sharp declines, falling below $58,000 for the first time in a long time. These declines are attributed to rising inflation concerns, a more hawkish Fed, and a strengthening dollar in recent weeks.
At this point, the situation for Bitcoin is worsening, and this is reflected in the options market. According to the data, there is an increase in bets in the options market on BTC falling to $50,000.
According to analyst Omkar Godbole’s analysis, investors in the Bitcoin derivatives market are taking positions expecting a further decline in price rather than an increase.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin, after recently falling to as low as $57,700, has partially recovered to around $58,800, while open positions have risen to 768,000 BTC.
At this point, the analyst noted that put options, which are bets on a price decrease in the options market, are priced higher than call options across all expiry dates. According to Paradigm trading desk data, demand for the $50,000 Bitcoin put option with a September expiry date has increased.
In conclusion, according to the analyst, this positioning indicates that investors have increased the likelihood of BTC falling below $50,000 by the end of the third quarter.
Investors Have Started Accumulating, But Bitcoin Could Fall Again! As talk of Bitcoin reaching $50,000 continues to intensify, Glassnode reports that long-term investors have resumed buying BTC. However, despite these purchases, the risk of eventual capitulation remains.
According to Glassnode analysts, institutional exits and increasing put positions in the options market are negatively impacting investor sentiment, but long-term holders have begun accumulating again, and many wallet groups are increasing their BTC holdings. Additionally, spot order books on Binance and Coinbase are showing a trend towards buy orders.
This signals a shift from a selling to an accumulation trend, with BTC trading below $60,000.
Despite this positive signal, analysts say investor fear remains high, and the amount of BTC losing money is greater than the amount of BTC making a profit.
In this context, Glassnode noted that risks persist due to high demand for put options in the options market and the increase in leveraged long positions, which could lead to further long liquidations and a decline in demand.
Glassnode analysts recently stated that another sharp price drop is still possible before the market bottom is definitively formed.
*This is not investment advice.
Follow our Telegram and Twitter account now for exclusive news, analytics and on-chain data!
The digital asset market is attracting new attention following the publication of a US financial disclosure linked to Donald Trump’s interests. The document reveals the scale of revenues from crypto, with a significant focus on cryptocurrencies, token sales, and blockchain-related projects. Among the declared assets are Bitcoin and Ethereum, two major sector references. This publication comes as the links between politics, regulation, and the crypto industry are gaining increasing importance in the United States.
In brief TRUMP declares a crypto portfolio exceeding $1.1 billion, notably composed of Bitcoin, Ethereum, tokens and memecoins. Digital assets represent a major source of income, with hundreds of millions of dollars generated by his crypto-related activities. World Liberty Financial plays a central role in his crypto ecosystem, thanks to token sales associated with the platform. The memecoin $TRUMP constitutes one of the main declared revenues, illustrating the growing importance of community tokens in the crypto market. This disclosure rekindles the debate on regulation and transparency, as the links between politics and the cryptocurrency industry attract more attention. The latest financial disclosure filed with the United States Office of Government Ethics provides a detailed overview of TRUMP’s economic interests in the digital asset sector. The document highlights several sources of income related to cryptocurrencies, decentralized platforms, and projects based on blockchain technology.
Here are the main figures from the disclosure that show the financial importance of these activities:
1.4 billion dollars: total declared income by TRUMP for fiscal year 2025. More than 100 million dollars: value of assets declared in Bitcoin and Ethereum. More than 500 million dollars: income generated by World Liberty Financial, the crypto company co-founded by TRUMP with his sons, thanks to token sales. Approximately 635 million dollars: income from the sale of the memecoin $TRUMP. More than 80 million dollars: income from settlements with media companies. 2.3 billion dollars: estimated profits generated by the TRUMP family crypto companies from investors since his return to the presidency, according to earlier Reuters estimates. These amounts show that digital activities now represent a significant element in the overall economic interests declared by TRUMP. His exposure covers multiple market sectors, ranging from major cryptocurrencies to decentralized finance projects and community tokens.
World Liberty Financial holds a special place in this ecosystem. This decentralized finance platform, developed with support from TRUMP family members who hold about 38% of its shares and business partners, fits into a trend aiming to offer new financial services based on blockchain. The activities related to this platform’s tokens are among the main crypto revenue sources mentioned in the disclosure.
The disclosure also presents other income sources from activities outside the digital sector. Agreements with media companies thus complement the various financial sources recorded in the official document.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Strengthen Trump’s Exposure to Digital Assets The presence of Bitcoin in the financial disclosure highlights the role of major cryptocurrencies in TRUMP’s digital portfolio. Alongside Ethereum, these assets represent a significant part of his direct exposure to the crypto market. Their inclusion shows that major digital currencies now occupy a place in the financial strategies of some public figures.
Bitcoin remains one of the most followed assets in the crypto ecosystem thanks to its historic role in the sector’s development. Ethereum keeps a major position due to its use in smart contracts and decentralized applications. These two networks are references for many investors and market companies.
The inclusion of these assets in a presidential disclosure also draws attention to the evolving relationship between the traditional economy and digital finance. Cryptocurrencies are no longer only associated with specialized investors but have become a topic followed by institutions and public officials.
This situation occurs in a context marked by institutional changes in the United States. The publication of the financial disclosure came shortly after a decision by the US Supreme Court concerning the Trump v. Slaughter case and presidential authority over certain independent federal agencies.
The ruling, adopted 6 to 3, overturned the 91-year-old Humphrey’s Executor precedent, which protected these agencies from the White House. According to legal analysts, this concerns the SEC and the CFTC, the main crypto regulators.
This timing heightened questions about Trump’s dual role as both a political decision-maker and a crypto investor. This development could influence how organizations overseeing different economic sectors operate.
Crypto Activities Fuel the Regulation Debate Trump’s digital activities continue to attract attention as the United States seeks to define its approach regarding the crypto industry. Revenues from tokens, memecoins, and digital investments now place virtual assets at the center of economic and political discussions.
In this context, the World Liberty Financial case raises particular concerns. In May 2025, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, MGX, made a $2 billion investment through the company’s USD1 stablecoin, via the Binance platform.
This financial arrangement allegedly allowed funds from a foreign government to be routed through a token that the president’s family helps control. Several Democratic senators have called for hearings on this initiative, citing risks related to foreign influence and governance of such transactions.
The White House has denied any agreement that could have influenced the company, while some lawmakers advocate banning federal officials from participating in such crypto operations.
This situation also reignites debates around financial transparency and potential conflicts of interest. The rapid growth of the crypto sector compels institutions to consider new rules adapted to economic models related to digital assets.
Companies associated with the TRUMP family have experienced significant development in this environment. Previous estimates regarding their financial performance from investors bolster interest in upcoming political and regulatory decisions.
Thus, this financial disclosure marks a new stage in the visibility of cryptocurrencies within economic and political spheres. It shows how digital assets, from Bitcoin and Ethereum to memecoins and decentralized finance, now hold an important place in new financial models. The sector’s future evolution will mainly depend on institutional decisions, actor transparency, and authorities’ capacity to govern digital innovation while maintaining an adapted regulatory framework.
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Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.
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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
The disclosure shows $635 million in memecoin royalties and more than $500 million from World Liberty Financial token sales, filed as Democrats push for an ethics clause in the Clarity Act.
Posted July 1, 2026 at 6:27 am EST.
President Donald Trump earned more than $1 billion from cryptocurrency last year, according to financial disclosures released Tuesday by the Office of Government Ethics.
Trump collected $635 million in royalties from his $TRUMP token memecoin business, which launched days before his inauguration on January 2025, according to the disclosure. He also received more than $500 million from token sales connected to World Liberty Financial, the DeFi project backed by he and his family.
This story is an excerpt from the Unchained Daily newsletter.
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Trump also disclosed holding more than $50 million in ether, more than $50 million in bitcoin, and up to $250,000 in USD through DT Marks Defi LLC, a Trump Organization-affiliated entity with a stake in World Liberty Financial.
Through CIC Digital LLC, a second Trump Organization entity that co-owns the memecoin business, the president held an additional $25 million in ether, $25 million in USDC, more than $50 million in bitcoin, and an equity stake in Coreweave, the bitcoin miner that pivoted to AI infrastructure.
Trump through a third entity DT Marks SC LLC holds a stake in a “stablecoin holdco” that generated well over $196 million in revenue in 2025, tied to a reported investment from Abu Dhabi Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Trump also disclosed 6 million from an NFT licensing agreement.
Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance disclosed between $100,000 and $500,000 in bitcoin held through a Coinbase account.
The disclosures arrive as bitcoin trades roughly 50% below the all-time high it set last October, and as the broader crypto market has struggled through a third consecutive quarterly loss. It also sharpens a conflict-of-interest debate that has dogged the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act throughout Senate negotiations.
Multiple Democratic senators, along with some Republicans, have said they will not vote for the bill without a provision barring senior government officials from holding personal stakes in crypto businesses. Trump’s White House has pushed back against earlier versions of the language. With the August recess roughly five weeks away and the bill still short of the 60 votes it needs for passage, the financial disclosures are likely to intensify that pressure at the worst possible moment for the bill’s timeline.
Related Listen: Bits + Bips: How the Dimon vs. Armstrong Clash Reveals Crypto at Peak Political Power
AI-assisted content: This article was produced with the assistance of AI tools and was reviewed, edited, and fact-checked by a member of the Unchained editorial team before publication.
U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance holds a "fair amount of" Bitcoin.
U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance recently disclosed holding Bitcoin (BTC) valued between $250,001 and $500,000.
As per the recently released certified annual financial disclosure report (OGE Form 278e), Vance holds Bitcoin in a Coinbase account and the holding generated no income or less than $201 in income during the reporting period.
The form doesn't shed more light on when Vance bought Bitcoin or the exact number of coins he holds.
The disclosure isn't surprising, given that as a Senate candidate in 2022, he reported holding Bitcoin worth $100,001-$250,000, and the position increased to $250,000-$500,000 when he filed the disclosure as a vice presidential nominee in 2024.
Trending on TheStreet RoundtableExclusive: Arthur Hayes says AI's biggest problem could be Bitcoin's gainAI firm tied to bankrupt crypto lender files for Nasdaq listingWall Street's Bitcoin funds just logged their worst stretch in monthsVance remains bullish on Bitcoin At the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas in May last year, Vance reaffirmed that he still owns "a fair amount" of Bitcoin. During the conference, he slammed the Joe Biden government's crypto policy and hailed the crypto industry for getting involved in crypto.
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After Donald Trump won the presidential election for the second time in November 2024, Bitcoin's price began to hit new record highs. The vice president was hardly subtle about the transforming change taking place in the U.S.
"Crypto finally has a champion and an ally in the White House."
Bitcoin hit the all-time high (ATH) of $126,080 on Oct. 6, 2025. But the flash crash on Oct. 10 led to all the gains vanishing, and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are yet to recover.
Trump's tariff threats and the U.S.-Iran war are among the primary macroeconomic reasons behind the ongoing crypto winter.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $58,505.11 at the time of writing.
Analysts expect AI, Federal Reserve policy and shifting market structure to drive crypto and equity markets through the second half of the year.Former Credit Suisse executive Mark Connors says AI is creating a widening divide between companies that benefit from the technology and those at risk of disruption.Hyperion Decimus' Chris Sullivan argues bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact and believes the market is nearing a point where "it's so bearish it's bullish."The first half of the year was defined by the AI trade. The second half may be defined by a tougher question: Which companies and assets actually stand to benefit from it?
The contrast between crypto and equities has been one of this year's defining market stories. AI enthusiasm propelled technology stocks to record highs, while bitcoin BTC$59,720.20 has tumbled 46% to $58,300 on Tuesday.
Market analysts say investors are entering a period where AI, monetary policy and changing market structure could drive sharp swings across equities and cryptocurrencies, even as the broader economy remains resilient.
Former Credit Suisse global head of portfolio and Risk Dimensions CIO Mark Connors argued AI is no longer lifting the technology sector indiscriminately. Instead, it is separating companies building AI infrastructure from businesses whose products or services could be disrupted by large language models and AI agents.
"The market is being cleaved in two," he said in an interview with CoinDesk, pointing to Accenture's recent selloff as evidence that investors are reassessing consulting firms as generative AI automates more knowledge work. He also cited weakness in software companies, including Autodesk and Intuit, saying it suggests pressure on traditional software firms could continue.
At the same time, he expects macroeconomic uncertainty to remain the dominant force across financial markets. Correlations among stocks, bonds, commodities and cryptocurrencies have risen in recent months, according to Kestrel data, suggesting investors are responding more to policy developments than to company-specific fundamentals.
"The rest of the year is going to be messy," he said, arguing uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and Treasury financing could keep markets volatile before financial conditions eventually improve.
Chris Sullivan, co-founder and portfolio manager at digital asset hedge fund Hyperion Decimus, sees a similar backdrop of elevated uncertainty but believes investors are paying too much attention to market narratives and not enough to market mechanics.
He argued that structural changes following the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), combined with institutional hedging activity in derivatives markets, have changed how bitcoin trades and weakened many of its historical relationships with broader macro indicators.
Bitcoin’s recent downturn has also challenged the idea that bitcoin had outgrown its traditional four-year cycle. Following the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, some market participants argued institutional capital would smooth out bitcoin's volatility and bring an end to its familiar boom-and-bust pattern. Sullivan disagrees, saying the current decline still fits within historical market cycles and that he is waiting for a final bottoming pattern before declaring the bear market over.
"We are nearing the point of where it's so bearish it's bullish" from a risk-reward perspective, he said. Sullivan continues to expect bitcoin to establish a bear-market bottom in the $54,000 to $58,000 range, arguing that improving on-chain fundamentals and historically depressed investor sentiment could provide an attractive setup for long-term investors once the current period of uncertainty passes.
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A new Bitcoin improvement discussion is putting one of the network’s most divisive questions back in the spotlight: what should Bitcoin block space be used for? BIP-110, a proposal under developer discussion, aims to limit transaction types to payments and peer-to-peer transfers, a move that could affect inscription-heavy activity such as Ordinals and Runes.
TL;DR Bitcoin developers are discussing BIP-110. The proposal would aim to filter transaction types viewed as on-chain spam. Ordinals and Runes traffic sit at the center of the debate. BIP-110 is a proposal, not an active or scheduled hard fork. The debate is not new. Since Ordinals brought inscription-style activity to Bitcoin, users have argued over whether that demand is a healthy fee market or a misuse of the chain. Supporters say Bitcoin is a permissionless network and users should be free to pay for block space. Critics argue that non-payment data clogs the network and moves Bitcoin away from its original monetary purpose.
The payment purist argument The case behind BIP-110 is rooted in a simple view of Bitcoin: the network should prioritize payments and value transfer. From that perspective, transactions that carry inscription data are treated as a distraction from Bitcoin’s core function. If the network becomes too congested with non-payment traffic, regular users may face higher fees and slower confirmation times.
That argument has gained renewed attention because Ordinals and Runes reportedly account for a large share of current Bitcoin network traffic. Some estimates place inscription-related activity at more than two-thirds of traffic. Even if that figure changes over time, it explains why the issue keeps returning. Block space is scarce, and everyone using Bitcoin is competing for it.
The open block-space argument The other side sees the proposal very differently. For Ordinals and Runes supporters, the point of Bitcoin is that users can broadcast valid transactions without asking permission. If someone pays the fee and follows consensus rules, they argue the network should not decide whether the transaction is morally or culturally acceptable.
There is also an economic argument. More activity means more fees. As Bitcoin’s block subsidy continues to decline over time, transaction fees become increasingly important for miner revenue. From that view, inscriptions may be messy, speculative, or even annoying, but they also help build the fee market that Bitcoin eventually needs.
Proposal, not policy The most important caveat is that BIP-110 is not a scheduled hard fork and should not be reported as one. It is an active proposal and debate. Bitcoin’s development process is deliberately slow, conservative, and difficult to force through. A technical idea can create a lot of noise without ever becoming network policy.
Still, the conversation matters because it shows Bitcoin’s identity debate is far from settled. Is Bitcoin only money, or is it a settlement layer where any valid transaction can compete? BIP-110 may or may not advance, but the argument around it will continue to shape how users, miners, and developers think about the network’s future.
For readers, the next few sessions matter because Bitcoin often needs confirmation from several places at once: spot demand, exchange flows, derivatives positioning, and the broader macro mood. One signal can start the conversation, but the stronger read comes when those signals begin lining up.
This report is based on information from Bitcoin BIPs GitHub Repository.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the United States have faced a sharp wave of outflows over the past two months. Data shared by the crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant indicates a total withdrawal of 100,000 BTC from these funds. This development stands out as the largest decline seen since the ETFs were launched in January 2024.
Outflows hit record-breaking levelsAccording to recent data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a significant drop in cumulative net inflows. The removal of 100,000 BTC signals the largest wave of sales on record, with the total outflow now exceeding $11 billion. This trend is also connected to institutional investors exercising greater caution before opening new positions.
Quick definition: A spot Bitcoin ETF is an investment fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin directly and is traded on exchanges like a regular stock. CryptoQuant is a widely recognized crypto analytics platform specializing in on-chain data and exchange flows.
CryptoQuant’s data reveals that cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have sharply decreased, with outflows totaling 100,000 BTC.
This outflow exceeding $11 billion marks the steepest weekly drop recorded since spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading. The accelerating withdrawals point to a dampened investor appetite and a notable slowdown in risk-taking behavior throughout the crypto market.
Early enthusiasm gives way to cautionAt their launch, spot Bitcoin ETFs were hailed as a milestone for the digital asset industry, drawing significant interest from a broad range of investors. These products provided institutional and retail investors with streamlined access to Bitcoin via established financial markets, fueling billions of dollars in inflows within weeks.
The current scenario, however, tells a markedly different story. Investor caution has spread, leading to steady daily outflows across nearly every trading day of the past two months. This period represents the longest recorded stretch of back-to-back daily outflows in the short history of spot Bitcoin ETF trading.
Over the past two months, ETFs saw capital drain on nearly every day of the week, setting a new record for the longest series of consecutive daily outflows.
Renewed questions about market interestThe persistent outflows from these funds have reignited discussion around the influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs on the market and whether investor interest will rebound. A growing “wait and see” sentiment among institutional players signals that the brisk inflows seen earlier this year have slowed to a more measured pace.
Current data underscores that spot Bitcoin ETFs still serve as a key indicator for the broader crypto market, though the past two months have clearly seen a reversal in capital flows. The extent and duration of these outflows continue to fuel debate about what this means for Bitcoin’s near-term prospects.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.