Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Jul 2, 2026, 4:51 p.m.

2 min read

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. (Bitwise/Press)Summary

Bitwise said STRC’s collapse is a classic late-cycle deleveraging event, not a sign of impending liquidation at Strategy.Strategy’s new framework shifts MSTR from a one-way bitcoin buyer to a more flexible capital allocator.The asset manager expects institutional investors, not Strategy, to become bitcoin’s dominant source of demand in the next cycle.Asset manager Bitwise said the sharp decline in Strategy’s (MSTR) perpetual preferred stock, STRC, is a hallmark of a maturing crypto cycle rather than evidence of a looming crisis at the company.

Bitcoin’s recent pullback below $60,000 coincided with STRC breaking from its intended $100 par value, as investors questioned Strategy’s willingness to maintain preferred dividend payments.

While the selloff rattled markets, Bitwise argued Strategy remains fundamentally well-capitalized, with roughly $52 billion in liquid assets against about $7 billion of debt.

"The volatility in STRC is a natural and important part of the crypto cycle. I think we’re nearing the bottom," Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said in a Wednesday blog post.

Bitcoin was trading around $61,400 at publication time, STRC at $88.

According to Hougan, Strategy’s decision to stop defending STRC’s $100 price through automatic rate hikes, and instead allow the security to trade freely while retaining the option to sell bitcoin or repurchase STRC, was a pragmatic response to deteriorating market conditions.

Earlier this week, Strategy unveiled a capital framework allowing selective bitcoin sales to fund preferred dividends, while authorizing preferred share repurchases and stock buybacks. It also set a minimum cash reserve covering 12 months of preferred dividend and interest payments. Its $2.55 billion cash balance currently covers about 17 months.

Hougan said the episode marks a broader shift in Strategy’s role within bitcoin markets. Rather than serving as crypto’s dominant, one-way buyer, the firm is likely to become a more flexible participant whose bitcoin purchases or sales depend on market conditions.

Looking ahead, Bitwise believes institutional investors, including asset managers, banks, pensions, endowments and sovereign funds, are positioned to replace Strategy as bitcoin’s primary source of demand.

More broadly, STRC volatility is seen as part of the leverage unwind that typically marks the late stages of every crypto cycle. As speculative excess is flushed from the system, the market moves closer to establishing a durable bottom, though the exact timing remains impossible to predict, the report added.

Wall Street bank JPMorgan said Strategy's new policy allowing selective bitcoin sales to fund preferred dividends creates avoidable two-way risk, increasing uncertainty and market volatility.

Read more: JPMorgan says Strategy's bitcoin sales policy adds 'two-way risk' to crypto markets

AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness

Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness

Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.

Jun 30, 2026

Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.

Why it matters:

Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.

The headline number is useful, but the real story is what it says about positioning. Bitcoin Reclaims $61,000 as Dovish Inflation Outlook Softens Market Fear gives NewsBTC readers a clean angle on Bitcoin Price at a point where the market is trying to separate durable signals from short-lived noise.

According to the source material reviewed for this report, the story turns on a few concrete details rather than vague sentiment. That matters because crypto headlines can move quickly, but the pieces that tend to last are the ones backed by filings, official releases, data dashboards, or protocol-level records.

TL;DR

Bitcoin reclaimed the $61,000 level after a sharp recovery from support at $58,000. The move was triggered by public comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh suggesting that inflation risks have eased. Traditional equity chip selloffs did not halt the digital asset recovery. For more details, visit the official Federalreserve platform.

A Fresh Signal For The Market The immediate relevance is that this development fits into one of the market’s main themes for the day: institutional positioning, network usage, regulatory pressure, protocol development, or asset-specific rotation. In this case, the key topic is Bitcoin Price, which is why it deserves a dedicated read rather than being buried inside a broader market recap.

For traders, the useful part is not simply that the headline exists. It is the way the facts line up with the current market backdrop. When official sources, market data, or protocol records show a fresh shift, readers get a better sense of whether the move is just a one-day reaction or part of something more structural.

The Numbers That Matter The core source for this story is federalreserve.gov with supporting data from federalreserve.gov. That source trail is important because the final article should not rely on discovery-only media links or second-hand summaries.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $61,000 level after a sharp recovery from support at $58,000.

The move was triggered by public comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh suggesting that inflation risks have eased.

Traditional equity chip selloffs did not halt the digital asset recovery.

The numerical claims in the pack were tied back to specific source material before writing. '$61,000' sourced from TradingView BTC/USD spot market exchange feeds; 'July 1, 2026' sourced from ECB annual forum Sintra presentation date

The Important Caveat The caution is just as important as the headline. Do not present Warsh's comments as an official FOMC policy shift; he is commenting on macroeconomic trends at the ECB forum.

That means the cleaner read is to treat this as a confirmed development with a defined scope, not as proof of a guaranteed price move or a sweeping market shift. In crypto, the difference matters. A verified data point can strengthen a thesis, but it does not remove execution risk, liquidity risk, regulatory uncertainty, or the possibility that traders fade the initial reaction.

For now, the story gives the market another piece of evidence to weigh. If follow-up filings, dashboard updates, protocol records, or official statements confirm further momentum, the angle can develop into something larger. If not, it still stands as a useful snapshot of where activity is concentrating today.

This report is based on information from federalreserve.gov and federalreserve.gov.

This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan has issued the country’s first official crypto exchange operating license, granting authorization to Pax Finance. This milestone gives the company the ability to offer services beyond the previously limited Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), marking the start of a broader era for digital assets and crypto regulation in Kazakhstan.

Expanded authority under the new licenseWith the central bank’s approval, Pax Finance is now permitted to facilitate crypto trading, provide digital asset custody solutions, and enable conversions between cryptocurrencies and traditional fiat currencies. The new license also allows the company to open branches nationwide and deploy Bitcoin ATMs across Kazakhstan, extending its reach well beyond the capital.

Founded on May 20, Pax Finance was established by prominent figures in Kazakhstan’s financial and fintech sectors. Among the founders are Arman Batayev, who previously worked at EY and within the AIFC, and Azat Bekmagambetov, recognized as an early leader in Kazakhstan’s crypto industry and a co-founder of one of Central Asia’s first Web3 accelerator programs.

Glossary: The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) is a regional hub in Kazakhstan’s capital, operating under its own distinctive regulatory framework for financial services. Web3 accelerator programs provide blockchain-focused startups with mentorship, investor connections, and product development support.

The National Bank reminded market participants that the license regime for crypto sector companies officially took effect on May 1, 2026. It emphasized the requirement for all entities wishing to operate legally in the country to register with Kazakhstan’s financial regulator.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan reiterated that, as of May 1, 2026, all crypto industry participants must comply with the newly established licensing framework and fulfill ongoing registration requirements in order to operate legally.

New phase in crypto regulationKazakhstan gained prominence in the crypto mining industry a few years ago, following restrictive measures introduced in China. Initially, authorities limited permitted crypto activities to platforms overseen by residents of the Astana International Financial Centre, aiming to provide legal avenues for miners to convert their earnings.

The Digital Assets Law, introduced in 2023, granted cryptocurrencies official legal recognition; however, their use cases remained restricted for some time. Despite these limitations, the majority of digital asset activity persisted on peer-to-peer networks, unregistered exchanges, or platforms based outside of Kazakhstan.

Crackdown on illegal operations intensifiesEarlier this year, a series of legislative amendments were put in place to expand crypto oversight beyond Astana and establish a more comprehensive regulatory regime. In early May, changes to the Digital Assets Law were enacted, quickly followed by further measures to legalize crypto-related monetary flows.

This new license makes Pax Finance the first platform to be admitted into Kazakhstan’s expanded, regulated digital asset market. It also comes as authorities increase enforcement against unlicensed activity. According to local officials, nearly 130 illegal trading points were shuttered at the start of 2026, with these sites accounting for a combined $127 million in digital asset transactions. Investigations resulted in asset seizures valued at more than $5 million.

New momentum for crypto paymentsKazakhstan’s government has expressed concerns over significant capital outflows facilitated through cross-border crypto transfers. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has publicly urged regulators to curtail these outflows and strengthen oversight.

Meanwhile, authorities are also taking steps to further legitimize crypto payments within Kazakhstan’s borders. While the tenge will remain the exclusive legal tender for direct transactions, crypto holders will be able to use so-called crypto cards, which instantly convert digital assets into fiat currency for goods and services.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

July 2, 2026 at 4:45 PM UTC

JPMorgan Chase & Co. warns that Michael Saylor’s financing overhaul at Strategy Inc. has shaken up the dynamics of the Bitcoin market by introducing the risk that one of the cryptocurrency’s biggest buyers could also become a seller, adding a new source of uncertainty for investors.

Strategy’s new policy of selectively selling Bitcoin to fund preferred-stock dividends and manage its balance sheet had created an “avoidable” two-way flow risk for the market, the bank wrote in a report late Wednesday. While maintaining larger cash reserves would reduce the likelihood of future sales, JPMorgan argued the company would need enough liquidity to cover two to three years of dividend payments before investors are confident that it won’t need to monetize its Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin (BTC) passed $62,000 at Thursday’s Wall Street open as crypto reacted to weak US employment figures.

Key points:

US nonfarm payrolls data delivers a crypto market boost as job additions for June fall short.Investors eye an easing in the inflation outlook as optimism over BTC prices increases.Crypto begins its forecast "green July" by liquidating nearly $500 milllion of short positions.Bitcoin gains amid "volatile situation" for US labor marketData from TradingView showed new July highs of $62,137 on Bitstamp, with BTC/USD up nearly 4% on the day.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The latest nonfarm payrolls data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the US added far fewer jobs than expected in June, at 57,000 versus the anticipated 114,000.

“Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in June,” an official news release stated.

US unemployment data. Source: BLS

The jobs numbers painted a weak picture of the labor market — a potential tailwind for risk assets should the Federal Reserve loosen financial policy as a result.

“May's jobs number was also revised down by -43,000 jobs,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in a reaction on X. 

“The labor market remains in a volatile situation.”As Bitcoin and altcoins headed higher, crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe was among those shifting toward a more optimistic mid-term market view.

“Inflation expectations have come down. Now, unemployment drops too. It's at its lowest level in close to a year. Those are strong, public signals about the direction of the markets,” he told X followers. 

“I don't think we'll see another drop on Bitcoin if Bitcoin can clearly break through $65,000 from here.”Bitcoin "buyers are back and strong"Other market participants also drew attention to Bitcoin bulls’ newfound strength.

“Price drilling through large asks on Binance perps orderbook is actually sign of strength. Plus, we have chasing bids supporting aggressive buyers,” commentator Exitpump reported about exchange order-book data. 

“Buyers are back and strong.”BTC/USDT chart with order-book liquidity data. Source: Exitpump/X

Data from CoinGlass put 24-hour crypto short liquidations at nearly $450 million at the time of writing. 

BTC/USD vs. cryptocurrency liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“Welcome to green July,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital continued.

As Cointelegraph reported, Rekt Capital expects a July relief rally for Bitcoin before bear-market momentum resumes in August.

An accompanying chart, which featured the 21-month and 50-month exponential moving averages (EMAs), drew comparisons to the 2022 bear market, with the implication that the cycle lows were still to come.

“And once Bitcoin turns the 50 EMA into new resistance on this relief rally, it will likely enter additional Bearish Acceleration over time,” Rekt Capital added in a separate X post.

BTC/USD one-month chart with 21, 50EMA. Source: Rekt Capital/X

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

For years, Michael Saylor’s company was the one thing Bitcoin bulls could always count on. No matter how ugly the price action got, Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) would be there, hoovering up Bitcoin like a vacuum cleaner with a corporate credit card. That reputation just took a serious hit.

JPMorgan analysts are now warning that Strategy’s recent financing restructuring could flip the company’s role in the market from relentless accumulator to net seller. The company has authorized potential Bitcoin sales of up to $1.25 billion to shore up liquidity and fund share repurchase programs.

The numbers behind the pivot Strategy faces approximately $1.7 billion in annual preferred dividend obligations, a figure that dwarfs the cash cushion it’s been sitting on.

As of June 28, Strategy’s dollar reserves stood at roughly $2.55 billion. That covers about 6.3 months of those dividend responsibilities, according to JPMorgan’s June 2026 report.

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The company first established a $1.44 billion dollar reserve back in December 2025 specifically to service preferred stock dividends and debt.

Between May 26 and May 31, 2026, Strategy offloaded 32 BTC for approximately $2.5 million at an average price of roughly $77,135 per coin. It marked Strategy’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022.

From MicroStrategy to macro uncertainty The company rebranded from MicroStrategy to Strategy Inc. in August 2025, a name change intended to reflect its evolved focus on Bitcoin treasury management. The playbook was straightforward: issue equity, issue convertible notes, buy Bitcoin, repeat.

Strategy’s new framework tries to address liquidity concerns by creating flexibility. The company authorized up to $1 billion in share repurchases for both common and preferred stock, alongside the $1.25 billion Bitcoin sale authorization.

What this means for investors JPMorgan’s concern isn’t just about Strategy. If the most prominent corporate buyer starts becoming a seller, that creates structural implications for the institutional demand floor that retail investors and traders have leaned on.

The $1.25 billion authorization doesn’t mean Strategy will sell that much Bitcoin. Authorizations are ceilings, not commitments. But the mere existence of that ceiling changes how the market has to price risk.

The 6.3-month coverage window flagged by JPMorgan is particularly worth watching. If Bitcoin prices decline or if Strategy fails to raise additional capital through other channels, that window shrinks.

The $2.55 billion in current reserves does provide some breathing room. The restructuring looks more like a company trying to get ahead of potential problems rather than one scrambling to survive.

For Bitcoin investors specifically, the key metric to track is whether that 32 BTC sale in May was a one-time event or the beginning of a pattern. One small sale is noise. A series of sales totaling hundreds of millions would fundamentally alter the supply-demand dynamics that the market has been pricing in since Strategy began its accumulation campaign.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has said Bitcoin may be moving closer to a market bottom as Strategy’s STRC stress drains excess leverage from the market.

Summary

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the STRC unwind could signal Bitcoin is nearing a market bottom. Hougan expects institutional investors to replace Strategy as the primary driver of Bitcoin demand. He believes the current deleveraging phase could pave the way for a new Bitcoin bull market this fall. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote in his latest weekly memo that the recent volatility in Strategy’s STRC preferred stock looks like a late-cycle unwind rather than a sign of more serious structural damage.

“The volatility in STRC is a natural and important part of the crypto cycle. I think we’re nearing the bottom.”

STRC stress has forced leverage out of Bitcoin STRC is a perpetual preferred stock created by Strategy to offer investors a high yield while keeping the instrument close to its $100 par value. Hougan said Strategy used the product to raise about $10.5 billion, with proceeds helping finance more Bitcoin purchases.

The trade weakened last week after Bitcoin and MSTR declined, sending STRC to roughly $75 and raising concerns over Strategy’s ability to keep funding preferred dividends. The company responded this week by increasing STRC’s annual dividend to 12%, authorizing up to $2 billion in common and preferred stock buybacks, and introducing a capital management framework that allows Bitcoin sales to strengthen reserves, meet dividend and debt obligations, and fund share repurchases.

According to Barron’s, STRC recently fell to a record low of $73.62 before Strategy increased the dividend and moved toward what it called active capital management. The report also said Strategy authorized up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales to help strengthen reserves.

Hougan said the move means Strategy may no longer act as a one-way source of Bitcoin demand. “For years, Strategy has been the most dominant Bitcoin buyer in the world and a one way source of Bitcoin demand,” he wrote. “Those days are likely over.”

Institutions could lead the next Bitcoin rally Hougan does not expect Strategy to become a forced seller, saying the company still has enough assets to cover debt and preferred obligations. He argued Bitcoin would need to fall much further and stay depressed before Strategy faced serious balance sheet pressure.

Instead, Hougan expects the next cycle to depend more on institutions, including banks, asset managers, pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, and financial advisers.

The Bitwise CIO compared the STRC unwind with the collapse of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium after the 2019 to 2021 bull market. In his view, both structures pulled capital into Bitcoin during strong markets before losing support and forcing a painful reset.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $62,000 after softer U.S. jobs data improved risk appetite. Reuters reported that the U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June, below expectations, while stocks rose and the dollar weakened as traders reduced expectations for Fed tightening.

Hougan said investors should watch for MSTR trading below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, extreme Crypto Fear and Greed Index readings, and negative funding rates. While he warned that bottoms are impossible to call in real time, he wrote that the STRC unwind suggests the market is entering the final stage of the cycle.

“I’m convinced the bottom is closer than ever,” Hougan wrote, adding that he expects a new Bitcoin bull market to begin in the fall.

Binance has announced that the number of blocks remaining until the next Bitcoin halving has dropped below 100,000, signaling a new milestone in the currency’s supply schedule. According to data from OKLink, there are currently 93,638 blocks left until the upcoming event on the Bitcoin network.

Halving timeline becomes clearerA Bitcoin halving takes place every 210,000 blocks, each time cutting the block reward miners receive by 50 percent. Current projections point to the next halving occurring around April 12, 2028. This marks an important transition in the network’s ongoing supply management, as the pace of new BTC creation continues to slow with each halving event.

The network’s latest milestone shows significant progress in Bitcoin’s cycle since the last halving. With issuance rates gradually decreasing as part of Bitcoin’s supply program, the amount of new BTC to be generated continues to shrink.

In a statement posted on its official X account, Binance confirmed that the number of blocks remaining until the next Bitcoin halving has now fallen below 100,000.

Majority of total supply in circulationCurrently, there are approximately 20.05 million Bitcoins in circulation, making up 95.47% of the maximum capped supply of 21 million BTC. As a result, only about 950,000 Bitcoin are expected to be mined over the next century as issuance slows further due to the protocol’s limitations.

Analysts estimate that the very last Bitcoin will not be mined until around the year 2140. Due to its code-driven fixed supply model, the Bitcoin network stands out as a unique system for predictable and deflationary currency issuance.

Price performance lags previous cyclesSince the last halving in April 2024, Bitcoin has lost roughly 3.1% in value, slipping from around $64,000 to below $62,000. After reaching an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, the cryptocurrency has plunged more than 51% amid persistent selling pressure over the past several months.

Market observers note that, compared to earlier cycles, Bitcoin’s post-halving performance has been notably weak. Institutional outflows and waning risk appetite have pushed the price down as low as $57,717 on July 1.

Analysts highlight that Bitcoin has displayed a lower return trend after the halving compared to previous cycles.

Bounce follows macro data releaseIn the latest 24-hour period, Bitcoin rebounded by 5.22% to reach $61,715, with renewed buying momentum evident across the broader cryptocurrency market.

The rally was sparked by below-expectation labor data released from the United States. June’s nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted, rose by 57,000 — far short of May’s 129,000 increase and well below the Dow Jones estimate of 115,000. These figures have fueled expectations that the US Federal Reserve may remain cautious about further interest rate hikes in the near term.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

XRP price rebounded near $1.10 on Thursday, rising 5% in 24 hours as crypto markets recovered.  Market value across digital assets increased 4.72% to $2.14 trillion. Meanwhile, oil fell below $68 after Qatar reported positive progress in indirect US-Iran talks in Doha. Bitcoin also reclaimed $61,000 after testing $58,000 earlier this week.

XRP Price Recovery Tracks Wider Crypto Rebound The XRP price remained at a point of over $1.10 as buyers came back to the broader crypto market. The relocation came after a challenging week, where traders had been keeping a close eye on macro headlines.

Bitcoin price climbed back above $60,000 a fueling the recovery trend.  Ether price also surged past $1,600, further bolstering the broader recovery of significant tokens.

Concurrently, the market sentiment was slightly improved. The CMC Fear and Greed Index was going up to Extreme Fear of 16 to Fear 21.

In the case of XRP price, the momentum indicators also went up with price supported above the $1.06 area. Further gains can be favored by a stronger movement beyond the level of $1.10 provided that buyers are active.

US and Iran Conclude Positive Talks in Doha Indirect talks between the United States and Iran concluded Wednesday in Doha through Qatari mediation. Qatar said both sides made positive progress on issues linked to a memorandum of understanding.

The negotiations were also marked by technical discussions, and both parties were willing to engage further. That update alleviated part of the market anxieties related to tension in the region and risks associated with energy supply.

During the Doha update, oil prices fell to below $68, indicating reduced worry about potential supply disruption. This assisted in backing a wider relief initiative within risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies.

BREAKING: Oil has crashed below $68 after Qatar said Iran and the US made “positive progress” in indirect technical talks in Doha.

Oil is now down -43% from its US-IRAN war peak. pic.twitter.com/ArWurpyVjk

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) July 2, 2026

Nevertheless, the negotiations failed to provide a conclusive deal and there was still some ambiguity. Iran kept threatening new attacks and Washington remained preoccupied with future nuclear talks.

Can XRP Price Buyers Trigger a Move Toward the $1.30 Target? The latest XRP price surged to $1.105, strengthening its four-hour recovery setup. The chart reveals that the buyers pushed the price higher above $1.10 after the broader $1.00 defense.

This recovery has now positioned XRP price at a significant test with the next major resistance of $1.15.

The MACD line has crossed the signal line, indicating a stronger short-term outlook. Meanwhile, the histogram is now positive, indicating an increased buying pressure. In the meantime, the RSI has already reached 65, which is close to a robust momentum area.

Source: XRP/USDT 4-hour chart: Tradingview XRP price is currently moving within an escalating short-term channel, which demonstrates better buyer control. The structure started around the $1.00 area, where traders were unable to stretch the fall. 

Nonetheless, the recovery is yet to have a clean breakout beyond the level of $1.15 to affirm stronger momentum.  Any successful move above that might shift the focus to the area of $1.20.

The cryptocurrency market broadly rises on Thursday, reflecting improvement in risk sentiment following an extended period of selling pressure. Bitcoin (BTC) is back above $60,000 after testing support at $58,000 earlier in the week. Ethereum (ETH) aligns with BTC’s positive short-term outlook, rising above $1,600. Similarly, Ripple (XRP) has steadied its rebound, trading above $1.06 amid strengthening momentum indicators.

Qatar reports positive progress in indirect US-Iran talksIndirect peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran concluded on Wednesday. According to CNN, the Qatari mediators said that the negotiations made “positive progress” with issues related to the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and that both sides agreed to continue discussions.

At the same time, low-level technical talks between US and Iran officials are underway indirectly through Qatar and Pakistan mediators. US Vice President J.D. Vance said that discussions on the nuclear issue are expected to start soon, CNN reported.

Meanwhile, Iran has warned of an “immediate powerful response” to attacks by Israeli Forces, calling on the US to restrain its ally. This development comes in the wake of remarks from Israel’s defense minister, who declared that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is now a direct target.

The crypto market has sprung up as risk-off sentiment marginally eases, with Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP logging in the second straight day of gains. The crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to signal Extreme Fear, but a rise from 11 to 19 suggests an incremental shift in market sentiment. While the uptick is modest, it indicates that investors may be regaining a cautious appetite for risk, improving the outlook for a sustained crypto market rebound.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative“What we are witnessing is not the end of Bitcoin's long-term bull cycle but rather a necessary repricing phase that mirrors the evolving global macroeconomic landscape, where cryptocurrencies have become far more sensitive to economic fundamentals than they were just a few years ago,” Simon-Peter Massabni, XS.com Head of Business Development, said in a comment.

Price analysis: Bitcoin tests its recovery potentialBitcoin is edging higher above $60,000 after respecting support around $58,000, which prompted bulls to reengage. Although the overall technical structure is bearish, indicators signal a potential positive turnaround. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive on the daily chart, hinting at a tentative recovery attempt, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 still reflects subdued momentum rather than a decisive bullish shift.

BTC/USDT daily chartOverhead, the latest Parabolic SAR reading at $62,523 reinforces the notion that the rebound is unfolding within a broader downside context. Above this barrier, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $66,157, caps the short-term trend. Higher up, the 100-day EMA at roughly $69,963 precedes a more significant hurdle at the downtrend resistance trendline around $75,208, with the 200-day EMA near $75,923 forming a dense structural zone that would need to be reclaimed to neutralize the prevailing bearish bias.

Altcoins technical outlook: Ethereum and XRP gain momentumEthereum trades at $1,623 following a brief rebound from the demand range between $1,500 and $1,600. Despite the upswing, ETH maintains a bearish near-term bias as the price holds well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $1,808, $1,987 and $2,256 respectively.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has turned positive on the daily chart, hinting at an attempt to stabilize losses rather than a decisive bullish reversal. The RSI around 41 on the same chart, reflects subdued demand despite recovering from near oversold conditions.

ETH/USDT daily chartInitial resistance emerges at the 50-day EMA near $1,808, ahead of the break level of the descending trendline at about $1,936, where sellers could reassert control. Further up, the 100-day EMA at roughly $1,987 and the 200-day EMA near $2,256 form a broader supply zone that would need to be reclaimed to negate the current bearish setup and open the way for a more sustained recovery.

As for XRP, the price holds above $1.06, marking a mild increase from the immediate psychological support at $1.03. Despite the uptick in the price, the remittance token sustains a bearish near-term bias as it holds well below the key moving averages.

Momentum is mixed, with the MACD just above zero and slightly positive on the daily chart, hinting at modest stabilisation, while the RSI near 38 still reflects subdued buying interest rather than a decisive recovery.

XRP/USDT daily chartOn the topside, immediate resistance lies at the 50-day EMA ($1.19), followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.30, where any advance would likely face renewed selling pressure. A sustained break above these barriers would be needed to challenge the higher structural cap at the 200-day EMA around $1.52 and to ease the prevailing bearish tone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.

Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.

Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.

Major cryptocurrencies are broadly in the green Thursday with Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and other top coins showing gains as crypto liquidations climb—with short positions making up the majority of the carnage.

Bitcoin topped the $62,000 mark Thursday morning for the first time in more than a week, rebounding to $62,078 after falling to a 21-month low under $58,000 earlier in the week. At a recent price of $61,808, Bitcoin is up about 3% on the day and 4% in the last week.

Other major cryptocurrencies are showing similar gains, with Ethereum and Solana both up nearly 5% on the day, hitting recent prices of $1,701 and $81 respectively. Solana is the biggest gainer among the top 10 cryptocurrencies in the last week, rising more than 22% during that span. XRP is up more than 3% on the day at a recent price of $1.09.

Crypto liquidations have surged to $602 million over the last 24 hours, per data from CoinGlass, with Ethereum flipping Bitcoin to become the biggest contributor with $187 million in liquidations compared to $184 million for BTC. Overall, short liquidations make up $400 million of the pile.

The bullish rebound comes following comments Wednesday from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who declined to say whether the agency planned rate hikes later this year. As of this writing, interest rate traders foresee roughly even odds of the Fed either holding rates steady or raising them at its September meeting, though they project a 64% chance of some kind of rate hike by the FOMC's October meeting, per CME's FedWatch.

On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers reported adding significantly fewer jobs in June than expected—57,000 vs. a target of 115,000, down from a revised figure of 129,000 jobs added in May.

Stocks are mixed following the news, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both down for the day, but the Dow still green, per Yahoo Finance.

Major crypto stocks are showing gains on the day, with Strategy (MSTR) up nearly 7% to $100 per share—after falling to nearly $80 last week—while Coinbase (COIN) is up 3.35% to $165 and USDC stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) has gained almost 5% to $65.

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Bitcoin was sold as digital gold, an uncorrelated hedge that would hold up when markets broke. In 2026 it fell roughly 50% alongside the Nasdaq while gold hit record highs. So what is Bitcoin now, and did the hedge thesis ever survive contact with Wall Street?

Summary

Bitcoin has spent 2026 moving with the Nasdaq rather than against it, with rolling correlations to U.S. tech indices reaching as high as 0.80 early in the year while its link to gold fell toward zero. The change traces to the spot ETF era: once institutions could hold Bitcoin inside the same portfolios as tech stocks, the same capital flows began driving both, tying Bitcoin to equity risk appetite. Analysts describe the current setup as the worst of both worlds, with Bitcoin taking the downside when stocks fall but not the full upside when they rally, behaving as a high-beta tail of macro risk instead of a standalone store of value. The counter-case is that Bitcoin is not a clean tech proxy either, since it fell on crypto-specific shocks even when tech rose, and that long-term holders kept accumulating, pointing toward an independent asset class instead of a tech clone. Whether the correlation is structural or a feature of the current tight-liquidity regime is the open question, and it decides whether the digital gold thesis is dead or merely dormant. Bitcoin was supposed to be the asset that zigged when everything else zagged. For years it was sold as digital gold, an uncorrelated hedge that would protect a portfolio when stocks fell and uncertainty rose. In 2026, it has done close to the opposite. Bitcoin is down roughly 50% from its October 2025 record near $126,200, and it fell in near lockstep with technology stocks while gold climbed to record highs above $5,000 an ounce.

The asset marketed as a crisis hedge behaved like a leveraged bet on the same risk appetite that drives the Nasdaq. This piece works through the evidence that Bitcoin now trades like a tech stock, why that happened, and the serious counter-argument that the story is more complicated than a simple correlation chart suggests. The answer matters because it changes how investors should size Bitcoin, how they should compare it with gold, and whether the ETF era strengthened the asset or quietly rewired it into the same macro trade it was supposed to diversify away from.

The evidence: Bitcoin moves with the Nasdaq now The correlation data is the starting point, and it is stark. Rolling 30-day correlations between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 reached about 0.80 early in 2026, the highest level in close to four years, and Bitcoin’s longer-run five-year correlation with the tech-heavy index sits near 0.54. Standard Chartered analysts have pegged the Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation around 0.5 with peaks near 0.8, while short-term readings against U.S. tech indices have ranged between roughly 0.55 and 0.68 through the year. However you measure it, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq have been moving together.

The relationship with gold has gone the other way. As Bitcoin’s tie to tech strengthened, its correlation with gold fell toward zero, at points reaching just 0.2. And the price paths made the divergence impossible to ignore. While Bitcoin dropped through 2026, gold surged to record highs above $5,000 and briefly toward $5,600 an ounce, outperforming Bitcoin by a wide margin over the same stretch.

The clearest test came under real stress. When conflict in the Middle East pushed oil higher and rattled markets, gold did what a safe haven does and climbed, while Bitcoin fell alongside risk assets. A hedge is supposed to prove itself precisely in those moments, and Bitcoin did not. The pattern that defined 2026 is simple to state: when the tech trade got hit, Bitcoin got hit, and when investors fled to safety, they chose gold.

Why the digital gold thesis mattered To understand what has been lost, it helps to recall what the digital gold pitch actually claimed. Bitcoin’s founding appeal to institutions was not only its potential for gains but its supposed independence from everything else. It had a fixed supply capped at 21 million coins, no central issuer, and no cash flows tied to the economy, which in theory made it a store of value that would not move with stocks, bonds, or the business cycle. In its early years, Bitcoin was not just uncorrelated with equities; it was uncorrelated with nearly every major asset class, which made it look like the ultimate portfolio diversifier.

That property was the entire institutional case. A diversifier that zigs when the rest of a portfolio zags reduces overall risk, and that is worth paying for. Wall Street bought into the idea that Bitcoin could serve as a hedge against monetary debasement, market volatility, and economic uncertainty, a role gold has played for centuries. The digital gold narrative underpinned much of the adoption story, from corporate treasuries to the campaign for spot ETFs, because it promised something distinct from a simple speculative growth bet.

The trouble is that an asset’s identity depends not only on its design but on who owns it and how it is traded. Bitcoin’s code did not change in 2026. What changed is the profile of the people holding it and the machinery through which they buy and sell. That shift, more than anything about the protocol, is what turned the hedge into a high-beta risk asset.

What changed: the ETF made Bitcoin a portfolio asset The pivotal event was the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, and the irony is sharp. The ETFs were celebrated as the moment Bitcoin was legitimized, folded into the regulated financial system at last. That same integration is what tied it to the equity market. Research published in late 2025 found robust evidence that ETF approval structurally altered Bitcoin’s role, marking a shift from an independent, idiosyncratic asset toward a conventional risk asset whose correlation with the S&P 500 rose sharply after the launch.

The mechanism is straightforward once you follow the money. Before ETFs, much of Bitcoin sat with crypto-native holders who traded it on its own logic. After ETFs, large institutions could hold Bitcoin exposure inside the same portfolios as their technology stocks, managed by the same risk desks using the same tools. When those desks adjust risk, they buy or sell Bitcoin and tech at the same time, for the same reasons, which welds the two together.

The marginal dollar in Bitcoin became, increasingly, the same dollar chasing artificial intelligence and growth equities, so when that dollar turned cautious, it sold both at once. This is the deeper story behind capital rotating into AI stocks that has drained crypto momentum all year. It is not only that money left Bitcoin for semiconductors; it is that the money still in Bitcoin now behaves like the money in tech, responding to the same Federal Reserve signals, the same liquidity conditions, and the same growth expectations. Bitcoin did not choose to become a tech stock. Its new owners made it one.

The worst of both worlds: downside without the upside If Bitcoin simply tracked the Nasdaq one for one, that would be a clean story. The reality analysts have flagged is worse for holders. Trading firm Wintermute has argued that while Bitcoin’s directional correlation with the Nasdaq stayed high, the quality of that correlation deteriorated into what it called a bearish skew. In plain terms, Bitcoin has kept the downside beta, falling hard when equities fall, while losing much of the upside participation, failing to rally proportionally when equities recover.

Wintermute’s Jasper De Maere tied this to a shift in investor attention. As mindshare and risk-on capital crowded into mega-cap tech, Bitcoin remained correlated when global sentiment turned negative but stopped benefiting fully when optimism returned. He described Bitcoin as reacting like a high-beta tail of macro risk rather than a standalone narrative, keeping the downside beta while shedding the upside premium. The Kobeissi Letter put the same idea more bluntly, noting that Bitcoin was increasingly behaving like a leveraged technology stock.

That combination, all of the downside and only part of the upside, is the least attractive profile an asset can have. It means Bitcoin has been amplifying the pain of equity selloffs without delivering the diversification that justified holding it, and without matching the gains of the tech names it now mirrors. For a portfolio manager, an asset that adds volatility without adding either diversification or reliable upside is hard to defend, which is part of why some funds have re-labeled Bitcoin from a long-term hedge to a tactical growth position sized like any other speculative bet.

The counter-case: Bitcoin is decoupling, just not how bulls hoped Here the story turns, because the simple tech-proxy narrative has a serious flaw. If Bitcoin were purely a leveraged Nasdaq, it would have risen when tech rose. Instead, for stretches since the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin fell while the Nasdaq strengthened, a divergence that some analysts said had rarely been so wide. Tech stocks climbed on strong earnings while Bitcoin dropped more than 30% from its high, driven by forces that had nothing to do with corporate profits.

Those forces were crypto-specific. The October 10 flash crash triggered a cascade of leveraged liquidations that hit Bitcoin while barely touching equities. Spot ETF outflows accelerated, pulling out the marginal buyer. The reflexive feedback loop around Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy, most visibly Strategy, threatened to reverse from a buyer of last resort into a source of supply. And post-halving mining economics added their own pressure through miner selling pressure. None of that is in a Nasdaq chart.

So the honest reading is that Bitcoin is not a clean tech proxy: it takes the downside when tech falls, but it also falls on its own crypto-native shocks when tech rises. That is a worse outcome than pure correlation, but it also means Bitcoin is not simply a technology stock in disguise. The distinction matters for anyone trying to model the asset. A pure tech proxy would at least be predictable, rising and falling with the Nasdaq. What Bitcoin actually did in 2026 was absorb equity-market downside through the ETF-era ownership channel while simultaneously generating its own downside through leverage unwinds, ETF redemptions, treasury-company stress, and miner selling. It behaved less like gold, less like a clean tech stock, and more like a uniquely fragile hybrid during a bad year.

The maturation argument: a third asset class There is a more optimistic frame that some analysts and long-term holders favor, which is that Bitcoin is becoming its own asset class instead of a copy of gold or tech. On this view, the correlation to equities is a phase driven by who happens to hold the marginal coin today, not a permanent identity. Bitcoin still has properties neither gold nor a tech stock shares: a hard-capped supply that cannot be expanded by decision, no cash flows or earnings to miss, and no management team or governance structure that can fail. Those features do not disappear because a correlation chart spikes.

The behavior of long-term holders supports the maturation read. During the same 2026 window when the ETF complex bled, the supply held by long-term holders moved in the opposite direction, with those flows running far larger in magnitude than ETF flows and skewing toward net accumulation. In other words, the traders treating Bitcoin as a high-beta risk asset were selling through ETFs, while conviction holders who treat it as a long-term store of value were buying. Two different populations, two different theses, playing out in the same asset at the same time.

Which group defines Bitcoin’s identity depends on which one is setting the marginal price, and that can change. Standard Chartered, for its part, has kept multiyear price targets well above current levels even while acknowledging the rotation into AI, framing the moment as a question of timing and competition for capital rather than a verdict on what Bitcoin fundamentally is. The maturation argument does not deny that Bitcoin trades like a risk asset right now. It argues that the current correlation is a snapshot of a particular ownership mix and liquidity regime, not the final word on an asset that is still only in its second decade.

Is this structural or cyclical? The whole debate reduces to one question: is Bitcoin’s correlation with tech a permanent feature of the ETF era, or a temporary product of the current environment? The case for structural is that the ownership change is not reversing. ETFs are here to stay, institutions will keep managing Bitcoin alongside equities, and as long as they do, the flows that link the two assets will persist. If that is right, the digital gold thesis is effectively dead for as long as this ownership base dominates, and Bitcoin is a growth allocation that happens to be more volatile than most.

The case for cyclical rests on how correlations behave over time. Cross-asset correlations tend to spike during tight-liquidity, risk-off regimes and to loosen when liquidity returns and assets trade more on their own fundamentals. Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has swung dramatically before, from deeply negative to strongly positive within weeks, which is not the signature of a fixed relationship. A shift in Federal Reserve policy, a change in the liquidity backdrop, or a rotation of capital away from the crowded AI trade could all loosen the tie and give Bitcoin room to trade on its own narrative again.

Some analysts even argue the correlation has already begun to break, though so far in the unhelpful direction of falling while tech rose. What would restore the digital gold thesis is a period where Bitcoin holds up while equities fall, proving the hedge in the only way that counts. That has not happened in 2026, which is why the thesis is on the ropes. But a single bad year in which a leverage-driven crypto drawdown collided with an AI-fueled equity rally is not a controlled experiment, and reading a permanent identity change off it may be as premature as the original digital gold claim was.

What it means for how to hold Bitcoin For anyone actually holding Bitcoin, the practical takeaway is to match the thesis to the timeframe. Over the horizon that matters in 2026, Bitcoin has behaved as a high-beta risk asset, so treating it as a crisis hedge or a portfolio insulator has not worked and is not supported by the data. An allocation sized as if Bitcoin will hold up when stocks crash is mis-sized, because this year it fell harder than the stocks it was meant to hedge. The more defensible approach in the current regime is to treat Bitcoin as a volatile growth position, size it to risk tolerance, and watch the Nasdaq and AI-stock sentiment as closely as the crypto charts, because that is where much of the near-term direction is being set.

Over a longer horizon, the store-of-value case does not depend on short-term correlation. The fixed supply, the absence of governance and cash-flow risk, and the accumulation behavior of long-term holders are the pillars of that argument, and they survive a year of trading like a tech stock. The honest conclusion is that Bitcoin is currently being priced as a leveraged expression of risk appetite, not as digital gold, and that this reflects who owns it in the ETF era more than any change in what it is. Whether it grows into the independent, hedge-like asset its supporters imagine, or stays a high-beta satellite of the tech trade, will be settled by the next regime, not this one.

For now, the market has given its answer, and it is not gold. The strongest near-term read is not ideological; it is practical. In a world of a hawkish Fed and tight liquidity, Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset, and risk-off market sentiment matters as much as on-chain conviction. The digital gold thesis is not dead by definition, but in 2026 it has not been the trade.

Frequently asked questions Is Bitcoin still considered digital gold? Less and less in practice. Through 2026, Bitcoin behaved like a high-beta risk asset instead of a safe haven, falling alongside technology stocks while gold climbed to record highs. Its correlation with the Nasdaq reached as high as 0.80 while its link to gold fell toward zero. The digital gold label describes Bitcoin’s design and long-term thesis, but its 2026 trading behavior did not match it.

Why does Bitcoin move with tech stocks now? The main driver is the spot ETF era that began in January 2024. Once institutions could hold Bitcoin inside the same portfolios as technology stocks, managed by the same risk desks, the same capital flows started moving both. When those desks adjust risk exposure, they buy or sell Bitcoin and tech together, which ties Bitcoin to equity market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy the same way growth stocks are.

How correlated is Bitcoin with the Nasdaq? Correlation varies with the time window, but it has been high in 2026. Rolling 30-day correlations with the Nasdaq 100 reached about 0.80 early in the year, the highest in nearly four years, and the five-year correlation sits near 0.54. Short-term readings against U.S. tech indices have ranged roughly between 0.55 and 0.68. Correlations shift over time and have swung from negative to strongly positive within weeks.

Did the Bitcoin ETFs cause this? They appear to be the central cause. Research from late 2025 found that spot ETF approval structurally raised Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500, marking a shift from an independent asset to a conventional risk asset. The ETFs legitimized Bitcoin by integrating it into traditional finance, and that same integration tied its price to equity flows and institutional risk management.

What is the bearish skew analysts mention? It refers to Bitcoin keeping the downside of its tech correlation while losing much of the upside. Trading firm Wintermute described Bitcoin as falling hard when equities fall but failing to rally proportionally when they recover, behaving as a high-beta tail of macro risk. That combination, full downside and partial upside, is a poor profile because it adds volatility without reliable gains or diversification.

Is Bitcoin just a leveraged tech stock then? Not cleanly. If Bitcoin were purely a leveraged Nasdaq, it would have risen when tech rose, but for stretches in 2026 it fell while tech strengthened, driven by crypto-specific shocks: the October flash crash, ETF outflows, treasury-company stress, and miner selling. So Bitcoin took equity downside while also generating its own downside, which is a fragile hybrid instead of a simple tech proxy.

Could Bitcoin become a hedge again? It is possible, and it hinges on whether the correlation is structural or cyclical. Cross-asset correlations tend to spike in tight-liquidity, risk-off regimes and loosen when liquidity returns. A shift in Federal Reserve policy or a rotation away from the crowded AI trade could let Bitcoin trade on its own narrative again. Restoring the hedge thesis would require Bitcoin to hold up while equities fall, which has not happened in 2026.

How should investors treat Bitcoin given this? Match the thesis to the timeframe. In the current regime, Bitcoin trades as a volatile growth asset, so sizing it as a crisis hedge is not supported by the data, and investors may watch the Nasdaq and AI sentiment as closely as crypto charts. Over a longer horizon, the store-of-value case rests on fixed supply, no governance risk, and long-term holder accumulation, which do not depend on short-term correlation.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and correlations between assets change over time and may not persist. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. Information is accurate as of July 2, 2026, and may change.

Jul 2, 2026, 2:49 p.m.

1 min read

Summary

OFAC sanctioned 134 crypto addresses linked to ISIS-K (131 Tron, 3 Monero) on Wednesday, and Tether subsequently froze the funds in all 131 Tron wallets.ISIS-K used its media wing to solicit donations via Tron, Monero, and Bitcoin, highlighting stablecoin issuers' growing role in sanctions, Chainalysis said.The Treasury also sanctioned a Brazil-linked network tied to the criminal gang PCC, which laundered over $30 million in illicit funds using crypto.The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 134 crypto wallet addresses to its ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) sanctions entry on Wednesday, including 131 Tron addresses and 3 Monero addresses.

The TRON wallets received more than $1.4 million since 2023 and sent more than $880,000, according to Chainalysis. Tether froze balances on all 131 Tron addresses.

ISIS-K, the Islamic State affiliate active across Afghanistan, Pakistan and parts of Central Asia, has used its media arm al-Azaim Media Foundation to solicit crypto donations through websites and messaging platforms, Chainalysis said.

Chainalysis said it identified historical donation addresses tied to the group on the Tron, Monero and Bitcoin networks.

The freeze reinforces the role of centralized stablecoin issuers in sanctions enforcement. Tether froze more than $182 million in USDT across five Tron wallets in January under its sanctions compliance policy.

OFAC also sanctioned a Brazil-linked network tied to Primeiro Comando da Capital, or PCC, which Treasury described as Latin America's largest criminal gang.

The network laundered more than $30 million in U.S.-generated illicit proceeds and used crypto to move funds back to Brazil, according to the Treasury.

AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

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Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness

Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness

Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.

Jun 30, 2026

Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.

Why it matters:

Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.

Table of contents

Last Updated: July 2, 2026

Bitcoin has pushed decisively above $62,000, trading at $61,924.81 and touching an intraday high of $62,053.00 — extending a sharp two-day rally that began after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh eased inflation concerns earlier this week. The move caps a dramatic turnaround from June 30, when BTC bottomed near $57,800 during the worst monthly stretch of the current correction cycle. Beyond the price action, the CLARITY Act’s path through the Senate remains the story to watch heading into July, alongside continued momentum in Solana’s ecosystem and ongoing questions about whether June’s record spot ETF outflows will reverse.

Today’s Top Stories Bitcoin Breaks Above $62,000, Extending Sharp Two-Day Rally Bitcoin is trading at $61,924.81, up 5.18% over 24 hours after touching a fresh high of $62,053.00 earlier today. The rally builds directly on Wednesday’s reversal above $60,000, which followed comments from Fed Chair Warsh reiterating the central bank’s commitment to its 2% inflation target. BTC has now recovered more than $4,000 from Tuesday’s low near $57,800, marking one of the sharpest multi-day reversals of the current cycle. For the full technical breakdown, see our Bitcoin News Today page.

CLARITY Act Faces Tightening Timeline Ahead of Senate Return The White House had targeted July 4 as a symbolic deadline for signing the CLARITY Act into law, but that window has effectively closed — the Senate adjourned June 25 and won’t return until July 13, leaving less than four weeks of floor time before the August recess. Senator Cynthia Lummis confirmed the bill will reach the Senate floor in July, with compromise text expected around July 4 for public review. The bill still needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, requiring at least seven Democratic crossovers. Polymarket has trimmed 2026 passage odds to 48%, with Galaxy Research putting the odds at roughly a coin flip.

Solana Continues to Lead the Market Recovery Solana remains one of the standout performers of the current rally, boosted by rising tokenized stock trading activity and the launch of World, a new on-chain prediction market built on the network. Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko also confirmed at Consensus Miami that the network’s Alpenglow consensus upgrade could ship as early as Q3 2026, aiming to cut transaction finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. For the latest SOL price action, see our Solana Price page.

XRP Network Activity Surges Even as Price Lags XRP’s active addresses jumped 72% over the past two weeks even as price action remained subdued heading into this week’s rally, according to on-chain data. Leverage across the network has also been flushed to its lowest level since July 2025, suggesting a cleaner technical setup beneath the surface. Ripple has also proposed a new tokenized-asset lending standard as the network continues expanding its institutional use cases. (Source: blockchainreporter.net)

Ethereum Foundation Undergoes Major Leadership Transition Ethereum’s support ecosystem is undergoing its biggest leadership transition in years, following the launch of EthLabs and ongoing efforts by the Ethereum Foundation to address community criticism over transparency and its role within the broader ecosystem. Ethereum Institutional also launched this week, drawing support from across the Ethereum community. For the full technical breakdown, see our Ethereum News Today page.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Posted Worst Month Ever in June US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest-ever monthly outflow in June, shedding roughly $4.5 billion over nine consecutive days of redemptions — surpassing the previous worst month by 29%. BlackRock’s IBIT alone shed $239.3 million in a single day, with Fidelity’s FBTC losing $120.8 million on the same session. Whether this week’s sharp price recovery is enough to reverse that outflow trend in July remains an open question.

Citi Cuts Bitcoin and Ether Price Targets on Stalled ETF Flows Citi slashed its 12-month price targets for both Bitcoin and Ether last week, citing stalled US crypto legislation and weakening investor demand after scrapping its prior ETF inflow forecasts. The revision reflects growing caution among traditional finance analysts following June’s steep correction, though this week’s sharp rebound may prompt a reassessment.

Market Snapshot AssetPrice24hBitcoin (BTC)$61,924.81+5.18%Ethereum (ETH)$1,646.01+4.79%XRP$1.0907+5.16%Solana (SOL)$82.23+2.81%BNB$560.74+3.52%TRON (TRX)$0.3167+0.08% For full price data, support/resistance levels, and technical analysis, see Crypto Market Today.

What to Watch This Week Senate CLARITY Act floor debate — compromise text expected around July 4, floor vote likely in July before the August recess July 29 FOMC meeting — Fed Chair Warsh’s second meeting at the helm, following a PCE print that some analysts say supports a case for further rate hikes later in 2026 Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade — targeted for Q3 2026, aiming to dramatically cut transaction finality times July ETF flow data — whether June’s record outflows reverse following this week’s sharp price recovery Compare Crypto Prices Today Bitcoin Price Ethereum Price XRP Price Solana Price BNB Price TRON Price This page is updated regularly with the latest crypto news and market developments. Nothing on this page constitutes financial advice. Always conduct independent research before making investment decisions.

FAQ Why did Bitcoin break above $62,000? Bitcoin extended its sharp rally from Tuesday’s low near $57,800, building on Wednesday’s reversal above $60,000 that followed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments easing inflation concerns. BTC touched an intraday high of $62,053 today.

What is the status of the CLARITY Act? The CLARITY Act is expected to reach the Senate floor in July, with compromise text anticipated around July 4. The bill needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and requires at least seven Democratic crossovers. Current passage odds sit at roughly 48-50% according to prediction markets and analysts.

Is XRP network activity increasing despite price weakness? Yes. XRP’s active addresses rose 72% over the past two weeks even as its price lagged, with on-chain leverage flushed to its lowest level since July 2025 — suggesting improving fundamentals beneath the surface.

Why is Solana outperforming other cryptocurrencies? Solana has benefited from rising tokenized stock trading activity, the launch of a new on-chain prediction market called World, and anticipation around its upcoming Alpenglow upgrade, which aims to significantly speed up transaction finality.

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Mysterious crypto writer with expertise in blockchain, offering deep insights that captivate and intrigue readers. With a unique ability to uncover hidden insights and trends, Samuel delivers in-depth analysis and thought-provoking content that keeps readers on the edge of their seats. His writing style is engaging and informative, blending technical knowledge with a sense of intrigue, making complex crypto topics accessible to both newcomers and seasoned industry professionals. Samuel’s work continues to capture the attention of the crypto community, solidifying his reputation as a trusted voice in the space.

While price action has long dominated the cryptocurrency market, attention in 2026 is steadily shifting toward the technical foundations of blockchain networks. With Ethereum, Solana and Avalanche preparing for some of their most ambitious protocol upgrades to date, Coinbase’s layer-2 network Base activated its Beryl hard fork just last Friday. In contrast, Bitcoin developers remain deadlocked over several contentious proposals and have yet to reach consensus.

Focus shifts from speed to resilienceTim Sun, a senior researcher at Hong Kong-based asset manager HashKey Group, explained that previous protocol upgrades have typically prioritized adding new features, speeding up transactions and boosting capacity. However, Sun observed that by 2026, the industry’s priorities are tilting towards more predictable governance, greater reliability and the development of robust, enterprise-scale infrastructure to support widespread financial use cases.

Tim Sun stresses that, looking ahead to 2026, simply adding more features is no longer the main concern; instead, reliability and institution-grade infrastructure are taking center stage.

Spotlight on Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgradeAmong Ethereum’s key roadmap milestones, the Glamsterdam upgrade stands out as one of this year’s most pivotal steps. Currently being tested on developer networks, it is expected to roll out to the mainnet in the second half of 2026. Planned changes include improved scalability, reinforcement of the layer-1 base, and a streamlined user experience aimed at simplifying network usage.

Sun noted that the upgrade could enable higher transaction throughput, expand data capacity, and reduce database bloat. The overarching goal is to make Ethereum a more favorable environment for stablecoin settlements and on-chain use of real-world assets.

Holly Atkinson, chief product and technology officer at 1inch, described Glamsterdam as Ethereum’s most significant upgrade since The Merge in September 2022. One highlight is ePBS—short for enshrined proposer builder separation—a structure aimed at making block creation and proposal processes more transparent. However, RuleSpark founder Pavan Kaur cautioned that while this step might help, it will not eradicate maximal extractable value (MEV) issues altogether, as some harmful practices may simply adapt and persist in new forms.

Mini glossary: ePBS stands for enshrined proposer builder separation. It aims to clarify the distinction within the protocol between validators who propose blocks and entities that build their content, with the objective of minimizing concentration in transaction sequencing.

Solana and Base aim for lightning-fast confirmationsOn the Solana front, the Alpenglow upgrade is the year’s most significant development. After receiving strong backing in governance votes in September 2025, Alpenglow is still under development and slated for release in the latter half of 2026 alongside the Agave 4.1 validator client. This system will replace the current TowerBFT mechanism with an innovative voting component named Votor.

One of the most concrete impacts is a dramatic reduction in transaction finality time. The goal is to bring finality down to between 100 and 150 milliseconds under optimal network conditions, compared to the present average of approximately 12.8 seconds. The upgrade also targets reducing network load by removing on-chain voting operations, ultimately improving validator communication efficiency.

NetworkUpgradeKey objectiveEthereumGlamsterdamScalability and stronger layer 1SolanaAlpenglowCut finality time to 100–150 msBaseBerylReduce withdrawal time from 7 to 5 daysAvalanchePost-Etna L1 modelLower custom chain setup cost by over 99%Elsewhere, Base deployed its Beryl hard fork following a brief sequencer outage that paused block production for about two hours due to an invalid block. Jesse Pollak, one of Base’s co-founders, emphasized that users’ assets remained unaffected by the disruption, but acknowledged the downtime was unacceptable and added that lessons learned will help reinforce Base as a round-the-clock global financial platform.

Jesse Pollak underscores that user funds were secure during the incident, but says Base recognizes the network pause was not acceptable and is using this experience to guide technical improvements.

According to Base documentation, the Beryl hard fork introduces the B20 native token standard, shortens withdrawal finality from seven days to five, and implements the Reth V2 integration. These updates are expected to decrease node storage requirements and enhance execution efficiency.

Avalanche goes institutional, Bitcoin debates persistOn Avalanche, there is less focus on a single named hard fork and more on sweeping changes to attract enterprise users and boost performance. According to Sun, the Etna hard fork replaced the legacy subnet model with a system of sovereign Avalanche L1 chains, slashing the startup cost for launching a private blockchain by over 99%. He also highlighted that Progmat, which he says represents about 63% of Japan’s security token market, recently moved more than $2 billion in tokenized assets to a dedicated Avalanche L1 chain.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, stands apart from rival networks. Its main challenges in 2026 are not scheduled upgrades but debates over whether to make the protocol more programmable or to strengthen it against quantum computing threats. Proposals like OP_CAT, CTV and Lightning-focused LNHANCE—each associated with covenants and programmability—remain under discussion but lack an agreed activation path. Proposals such as BIP 360 and similar efforts to ease the shift to quantum-resistant spending methods are also still on the table without a clear consensus.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.

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Bitcoin rebounded above $60,000 during the July 1, 2026 trading session, recovering after weeks of decline. This move was driven by remarks from US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who indicated that inflation pressures are easing. Warsh’s comments provided temporary relief to crypto markets following a turbulent quarter for digital assets.

Sharp intraday swings rattled marketsEarly in the day, Bitcoin had fallen as low as $57,803, marking its lowest level in 22 months. The digital asset then reversed direction and traded around $60,807 in the afternoon US hours, reflecting an intraday gain of about 3.7%.

On the technical front, Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin touched the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, calculated over the entirety of this bull cycle. The analyst highlighted that this area coincides with consolidation lows of summer 2024, and in previous cycles, advances have often begun from similar technical zones.

Mini glossary: Fibonacci retracement refers to a set of ratios used in technical analysis to measure how much of a prior upward or downward move has been reversed. The 0.618 level is among the most closely watched support and resistance zones for investors.

Kevin Warsh stated, “We will ensure price stability in the US and will not tolerate inflation remaining above the 2% target.”

Ted Pillows expressed that as long as Bitcoin stays below $60,000, sellers maintain the upper hand. Consequently, despite the day’s rebound, caution persists regarding the market’s direction.

Weak quarter and rate hike expectations pressured pricesBitcoin lost 14% in the quarter ending in June. Since the beginning of the year, the digital currency’s value is down 32%. The price now stands more than 50% below its October peak.

The Fed’s hawkish stance at its June meeting strengthened expectations for at least one additional rate hike this year. In a high-interest-rate environment, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin become more costly to hold. At the same time, increased interest in AI-related stocks has accelerated capital outflows from the crypto market.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs see record monthly outflowsUS-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows totaling $4.5 billion in June 2026. According to SoSoValue data, this marks the largest monthly outflow since the products began trading in January 2024.

IndicatorDataTotal ETF outflow in June 2026$4.5 billionPrevious monthly record$3.48 billion in February 2025BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust outflow$3.55 billionTotal net assets$70.9 billionThe outflows recorded in June surpassed the previous monthly record of $3.48 billion set in February 2025 by roughly 29%. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust was the main driver, posting $3.55 billion in withdrawals. In total, net assets across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs dropped from over $110 billion earlier in the year to $70.9 billion.

Daan Crypto Trades emphasized that while there were relief rallies at similar technical levels in earlier cycles, this cycle could differ in important ways.

Nevertheless, cumulative net inflows into these funds since their launch have remained above $51 billion. Despite recent heavy withdrawals, the long-term flow remains positive, drawing attention amid market volatility.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.

Bitcoin

2 July 2026 | 10:19 Bitcoin retail inflows have hit record lows on Binance, while ETF holders are aggressively redeeming assets. Is this a structural market warning or a classic contrarian bottom signal?

Key Takeaways Retail inflows to Binance hit a record low of 329 BTC per day. That’s roughly 8x below the 2021 average and 11x below 2018. Bitcoin ETFs have seen about $8.48 billion in net outflows since May 6. Both point to the crowd exiting, but neither is a timing signal. Retail Never Showed Up This Cycle Data from CryptoQuant shared by analyst Darkfost, tracking Binance inflows under 1 BTC, a proxy for retail, against price since 2018. According to the analyst, retail inflows now average 329 BTC per day, the lowest in the exchange’s history. The historical contrast is the whole point:

Period Retail Inflows (avg/day) 2018 cycle 3,700 BTC 2021 peak 2,690 BTC Now 329 BTC That’s roughly an 8x collapse from the 2021 average and 11x from 2018, which saw a single-day record of 10,400 BTC. The telling detail: the 30-day average that spiked in every prior cycle (2018, 2021, 2023) flatlined near the bottom of its range through 2025-2026, even as Bitcoin ran above $100K. Every price top this cycle failed to trigger a retail spike. The cohort simply didn’t turn up.

Darkfost’s Explanation Darkfost offers several possible reasons, framed as his analysis. Retail may have chased exposure elsewhere this cycle, in altcoins or other assets. Spot Bitcoin ETFs may have captured investors and pulled them out of on-exchange activity into a wrapped vehicle. And some retail may simply be holding longer-term or waiting for better performance. His broader framing is that this cohort could be “going extinct” on Binance, with the market’s makeup shifting toward institutionalization.

The ETF Outflows Tell a Parallel Story The wrapped-exposure crowd is leaving too. According to Santiment, Bitcoin ETFs have combined for about $8.74 billion in net outflows since May 6, approaching the $10 billion mark. Santiment’s read is explicitly contrarian: it treats sustained outflows as a sentiment signal, where price tends to move opposite the crowd’s expectations over time, rather than a mechanical predictor of further downside. The longer the outflow streak, in their view, the more it reflects fear and capitulation than a fresh reason to sell.

Bitcoin ETF outflows. Their historical anchor is a mirror image. On October 6, 2025, ETFs saw +$1.21 billion in inflows, which Santiment marked as a “sell signal at ATH”, inflows peaking exactly as price topped. Now the inverse: heavy outflows clustering near the lows, which they read as a strong fear signal. Their thesis is that the best buying opportunities have historically come when ETF investors and retail are most eager to exit.

Where Price Sits Bitcoin trades around $60,185 at the time of writing, after reaching $61,050 and attempting to stabilize following the June decline that bottomed near $58,000. All three major moving averages sit well overhead as resistance, and momentum is recovering off the lows rather than reversing, a tentative steadying, not a confirmed turn.

Bitcoin daily price technical chart from TradingView. The Tension Between the Two Reads Both analysis frame the crowd’s exit constructively, but in ways that don’t fully fit together, and that’s worth being honest about. Darkfost reads it as structural institutionalization: retail replaced by institutions and ETFs. Santiment reads it as contrarian capitulation: weak hands leaving strengthens the bottom case. Both are reasonable, and both are interpretations, not confirmed outcomes.

The tension is real. If retail is structurally “extinct,” permanently migrated to ETFs as Darkfost suggests, then Santiment’s “they’ll capitulate and then return to buy” logic weakens, because you can’t get a retail-driven recovery from a cohort that has left for good. The two theses can’t both be fully true. Either retail comes back (supporting the contrarian bottom case) or it has structurally gone (supporting institutionalization), but not both.

What It Doesn’t Tell You The critical limit is that none of this is predictive. Retail being absent doesn’t mean price bottoms; it can equally mean the market has lost a demand source that historically drove rallies. Santiment’s own framing is careful, outflows “can pressure price in the short term” even as they build the longer-term bottom case, so the contrarian signal is a probabilistic historical tendency, not a timing tool.

What both datasets confirm is the phenomenon, not the outcome: the retail and ETF crowd is exiting Bitcoin at historic intensity. Whether that clears the way for a bottom or removes a demand driver the market needs is exactly what the data can’t resolve. It describes who has left, not where price goes next.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a professional before making investment decisions.

Author

Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.

Metaplanet, a publicly traded company based in Japan, continues to grow its Bitcoin investments. In its latest announcement, the company stated that it purchased an additional 2,823 Bitcoins. With this latest purchase, Metaplanet’s total Bitcoin holdings have risen to 43,000 BTC.

The company’s announced new purchase once again demonstrates the continuing trend of institutional companies viewing Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The recent addition of Bitcoin to the balance sheets of several publicly traded companies, in particular, reinforces the view that institutional adoption is strengthening in the cryptocurrency market.

Metaplanet has become one of the companies that has stood out in recent months with its Bitcoin-focused strategy. The Japanese company positions digital assets as a long-term treasury management tool, steadily increasing its total reserves through regular purchases. The recent purchase of 2,823 BTC is seen as a continuation of this strategy.

Metaplanet’s total holdings reaching 43,000 BTC make it more prominent among institutional Bitcoin investors. This move by the company demonstrates that Bitcoin is being adopted as a strategic asset not only by individual investors but also by publicly traded companies and institutional actors.

Market experts note that while such purchases may not have a direct, significant impact on the Bitcoin price in the short term, they send important signals supporting institutional confidence in the long term. In particular, the inclusion of Bitcoin in the reserve management of large-scale companies is seen as a development that strengthens the leading cryptocurrency’s position in the traditional financial world.

Analysts say Metaplanet’s latest move reflects the company’s long-term optimistic outlook on Bitcoin, and that similar purchases could increase across the market if institutional demand continues.

*This is not investment advice.

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How Public Listings Change Crypto Companies

Metaplanet, Japan’s most prominent publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company, pulled in $10.75 million in revenue from its Bitcoin income business during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. That figure, announced on July 2, lands right in line with the company’s own forecast of roughly $11 million.

The Bitcoin income operation now represents the core of Metaplanet’s entire revenue engine. The Bitcoin income business launched in Q4 2024.

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How Metaplanet actually makes money from Bitcoin Metaplanet generates revenue primarily through premiums collected from cash-secured Bitcoin options. The company sells options contracts on its Bitcoin holdings, collecting fees (premiums) from buyers regardless of whether those contracts are exercised.

This strategy drove 95% of the company’s revenue growth in FY2025, according to the company’s disclosures.

The bigger picture: full-year guidance and Bitcoin ambitions Metaplanet’s guidance for the full fiscal year 2026 projects total revenue of approximately 16 billion yen, which translates to roughly $103 to $104 million. Operating profit is expected to land around 11.4 billion yen, or about $73 to $74 million. The vast majority of that revenue is expected to come from the Bitcoin income segment.

As of March 31, 2026, Metaplanet held 40,177 BTC on its balance sheet. The company has publicly stated its goal of holding more than 100,000 BTC by the end of 2026 and is targeting 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027. 210,000 BTC represents 1% of Bitcoin’s total fixed supply of 21 million coins.

Diversifying beyond options premiums In June 2026, the company acquired Siiibo Securities for approximately 2.1 billion yen, or about $13 million. The acquisition is designed to let Metaplanet offer Bitcoin-linked yield products to a broader investor base.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Key Highlights Bitcoin surged past the $60,000 mark, gaining 3% on Thursday following a challenging first half of 2026 The leading cryptocurrency dropped over 30% during the initial six months of 2026 American stock futures declined, with Nasdaq futures experiencing the steepest losses at 0.7% Korean semiconductor giants SK Hynix and Samsung tumbled more than 14% and 9% respectively amid widespread chip industry decline Market attention centers on the June employment report, forecasted to reveal 115,000 new positions The flagship cryptocurrency recovered above the $60,000 threshold on Thursday, offering digital asset investors a welcome reprieve following a punishing start to the year.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price The premier digital currency exchanged hands near $60,499, registering approximately 3% growth during early market hours. This uptick follows a devastating decline exceeding 30% across the year’s first two quarters, marking one of its most severe six-month downturns in recent history.

The rebound materialized as market participants prepared for the June American employment data release, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Projections indicate the economy generated 115,000 new positions in June, while the jobless rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

Employment Figures Command Market Attention Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh contributed to the measured market sentiment earlier this week. He acknowledged diminishing inflation pressures but emphasized his commitment to achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation objective. He further indicated he would “disappoint” those anticipating accommodative monetary conditions.

BIG POSITIVE signal from the Federal Reserve

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that inflation risks have eased significantly in recent weeks, reaffirming the central bank’s commitment to price stability.

If inflation continues to cool, expectations of rate cuts could… pic.twitter.com/4WcHeBgirE

— Yatin Mota (@yatinmota) July 1, 2026

Reduced borrowing costs typically benefit speculative investments like digital currencies, prompting traders to scrutinize employment figures for indications that rate reductions might return to consideration.

Warsh directed markets to examine economic indicators rather than Fed commentary for insights into future rate trajectories. This guidance placed Thursday’s employment data at the forefront of investor focus.

Bitcoin has faced headwinds throughout much of 2026. Weakening institutional appetite, stagnant advancement on American cryptocurrency regulation, and ambiguity surrounding US-Iran diplomatic efforts have collectively pressured valuations.

Digital asset markets have also exhibited stronger correlation with technology equities and general risk assets this year. This connection was evident Thursday as both cryptocurrencies and traditional stocks experienced concurrent downward pressure.

Equity Markets Retreat as Semiconductor Sector Weighs Heavy American equity futures declined uniformly on Thursday. Nasdaq 100 futures surrendered 0.7%, S&P 500 futures retreated approximately 0.3%, and Dow futures slipped 0.2% lower.

E-Mini S&P 500 Sep 26 (ES=F) The technology sector encountered additional headwinds following a dramatic selloff in South Korean semiconductor equities during overnight trading. The Kospi benchmark plunged 7.9%.

SK Hynix plummeted beyond 14% while Samsung declined over 9%. Samsung’s recent announcement of substantial AI infrastructure investment amplified anxieties regarding expenditure levels and profitability within the chip industry.

The deterioration in Korean chipmaker valuations came on the heels of a comprehensive semiconductor sector decline on Wednesday across American exchanges.

Notwithstanding Thursday’s recovery, Bitcoin continues trading substantially beneath its peak levels. Market observers suggest institutional capital movements and macroeconomic indicators will maintain their influence on price direction throughout the immediate term.

The employment report could establish the prevailing sentiment for both equities and cryptocurrencies entering the summer months.

A notable assessment has emerged suggesting that the downturn in the Bitcoin market may end this month, and the leading cryptocurrency could re-enter an upward trend. Andre Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, stated that under current conditions, the bottom for Bitcoin could be reached sooner than the general market expects, potentially paving the way for a new bull cycle.

According to Dragosch’s assessment, a strong rebound, particularly in semiconductor sector stocks, could be a significant catalyst not only for technology markets but also for crypto assets.

According to the analyst, a strong rally in semiconductor stocks from current levels could increase the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will adopt a more dovish stance in monetary policy. This could ease pressure on risky assets and pave the way for assets like Bitcoin to regain strength.

While the prevailing market view is that Bitcoin will bottom out in October, Dragosch argues that this timeline could be brought forward. According to the research director, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will bottom out and begin to recover this month.

Experts point out that the Fed’s interest rate policy, global risk appetite, and the performance of technology stocks have recently become more closely linked to Bitcoin price movements. In particular, changes in liquidity conditions and investors’ willingness to move towards risky assets are considered among the main factors determining the short-term direction of the crypto market.

Andre Dragosch’s assessment has revived optimistic expectations for the second half of the year in the market, suggesting that this month could be a critical turning point for Bitcoin investors. However, analysts emphasize that despite a possible recovery scenario, macroeconomic data, Fed messages, and global market conditions should be closely monitored.

*This is not investment advice.

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10h39 ▪ 7 min read ▪ by Ghiles A.

Summarize this article with:

Research on cryptocurrency forecasting models takes a new step. A study published in a scientific journal now recognizes the robustness of a theory developed over more than ten years called the “Power Law.” Bitcoin thus becomes the focus of a mathematical analysis based on a power law linking price evolution to network growth. This validation by independent reviewers marks a turning point for a model long debated within specialized communities.

In brief Bitcoin’s Power Law obtains scientific validation after its publication in an Elsevier academic journal. Giovanni Santostasi’s model links Bitcoin network growth to its long-term price evolution. The study analyzes 5,696 daily data points and explains about 96% of historical price variations. Researchers identify several signals capable of indicating a possible break in the mathematical trend. The current bear market represents the first major test to verify the robustness of the peer-reviewed model. Bitcoin’s Power Law Obtains Scientific Validation After Several Years of Research The Bitcoin Power Law model is based on a simple idea: price growth follows a mathematical trend linked to network expansion. The model advocated by physicist Giovanni Santostasi describes a regular relationship between gradual adoption and value evolution. The recent publication in Elsevier’s Nonlinear Science journal confirms that this approach has a recognized scientific basis. The study appeared online on June 29 and presents a detailed analysis of several years of data.

Santostasi first presented this theory in 2014 on Reddit. At the time, he noticed that bitcoin price followed a particularly stable line when using a logarithmic scale. For several years, this observation circulated mainly within cryptocurrency community spaces. Later, the researcher developed his approach in an article published on Medium in 2024 to further present his arguments.

The theory long faced criticism, with some observers believing it was only a statistical fit. However, Santostasi and his co-author Stephen Perrenod submitted their work to independent scientific review. The journal eventually accepted their study after examining the proposed model. This step now distinguishes this approach from other popular charts based solely on historical trends.

Before this publication, several analyses had already studied the link between network size and the value of a digital asset. Previous works notably examined the influence of the number of users on market progression. However, these studies mainly used adjustments to existing data rather than a genuine mathematical model capable of anticipating future evolution.

Santostasi and Perrenod’s goal was to bridge this gap. Their approach seeks to explain why certain growth phases occur according to a regular structure. They explain that two main mechanisms support this dynamic. First, new users gradually join the network in successive waves.

Second, each newcomer increases the overall value of the network by creating more connections with existing participants. This logic aligns with some principles used to analyze network effects. The authors indicate that this combination explains much of the evolution observed since the early years. The study attributes about 96% of long-term variations to this mathematical curve.

The Study on Power Law and Bitcoin Reveals Strong Statistical Stability Researchers analyzed 5,696 daily prices between July 2010 and February 2026. The presented model shows that a power curve remains close to historical data over a long period. According to their calculations, the gap between the model’s prediction and the measured value remains below 1.6%. This accuracy applies only to the studied period and does not guarantee future performance.

The analysis also highlights that bullish and bearish cycles remain compatible with this general trend. Previous bear markets did not cause structural breaks in the model. Significant fluctuations thus appear as movements around a main trajectory. This observation strengthens the scientific interest in this approach.

However, the authors also presented several factors capable of invalidating their theory. Among them are:

Violation of the floor threshold (F1): the price stays more than a year below the trend, with a deviation greater than three standard deviations. In 2025, this threshold was around $10,000. Collapse of adoption (F2): Address growth slows sharply, especially if a competing network attracts new users. Exponent drift (F3): the growth coefficient sustainably leaves the range between 5.0 and 7.0. Metcalfe break (F4): the link between price and the number of active addresses disappears, with a correlation coefficient below 0.7. Collapse of R² (F5): the moving fit of the power law falls below 0.80 for two consecutive years. These criteria allow monitoring for potential future breaks. The model thus remains subject to specific verification conditions.

The Current Bear Market Represents the First Real Test of the Model The Bitcoin price currently trades around $60,000, representing a 43% decrease over the past year and a 52% drop from its October 2025 record of $126,080. The data used in the study ends in February 2026 and therefore does not fully account for the latest market decline. This situation creates a first real-life test for a theory recently recognized by the scientific community. Upcoming developments will show whether the trend maintains its coherence.

This period also raises questions around other analysis models. Some popular indicators faced difficulties during this decline. Approaches based on economic cycles or scarcity models also encounter new debates concerning their ability to explain recent movements.

Researchers remain cautious about future results and do not propose a precise price target. They only indicate that several signals could identify a potential break. Such signals include a sustained drop below the trend, loss of adoption, or a divergence between network value and its actual usage.

At this stage, Bitcoin’s Power Law thus constitutes a recognized scientific model but remains subject to future market tests. The publication provides a new analytical basis to understand the evolution of a digital asset marked by significant cycles. Monitoring the coming years will determine whether this mathematical structure retains its explanatory power.

The future will notably depend on the stability of adoption and users’ overall behavior. A lasting confirmation would strengthen academic interest in this approach, while a break would provide new elements to reassess the model. The BTC network will thus remain a major observation field for researchers studying links between technology, adoption, and economic dynamics.

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Ghiles A.

Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.

It's getting harder for bulls to defend XRP's chart. The asset continues to print lower highs and lower lows following months of continuous selling pressure, maintaining the overall downtrend. Is a significant reversal even feasible at this point? The most recent move below the crucial support zone around $1.30 has only strengthened pessimism. 

XRP just finished breaking down from a descending triangle formation that had been forming since March, according to the daily chart. These patterns usually indicate that the market will continue to decline, and it has done so nearly flawlessly. XRP lost another significant support cluster after the breakdown, and it is currently trading close to $1.05, one of its lowest points of the year. The moving averages show a similar pessimistic outlook. 

XRP/USDT Chart by TradingViewXRP is still below the downward-sloping 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. This alignment indicates that sellers maintain control over both near-term and long-term periods. The 200-day moving average, which is currently close to $1.51, is particularly significant because it indicates the level that XRP must recover before any meaningful conversation about a trend reversal can start.

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Not much encouragement has come from volume either. Buying activity has been comparatively muted, despite sporadic spikes during selloffs. This implies that market participants are still reluctant to make aggressive purchases, despite the significant drop from earlier highs. 

The Relative Strength Index is the only positive indicator for bulls. The RSI is getting close to oversold territory at 35. Such readings have historically preceded short-term relief rallies, especially if sentiment in the cryptocurrency market as a whole improves. However, oversold conditions alone rarely reverse a significant trend. 

Bitcoin makes a moveThe recent price movement of Bitcoin indicates that the market is still having difficulty finding a stable bottom. Following its inability to sustain momentum above important moving averages in May, Bitcoin started a new downward trend that has moved it closer to the lower end of its current trading range. A move toward $52,000 cannot be ruled out based on the technical structure seen on the daily chart. 

BTC/USDT Chart by TradingViewFor bulls, the total loss of trend support is the most alarming development. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of Bitcoin are currently below $63,000, $68,000, and $76,000, respectively. This alignment supports a very pessimistic market structure. Over the past few months, every attempt at recovery has failed to reach the longer-term trend indicators. 

Upon closer examination, it can be seen that BTC recently broke down from a rising channel that had formed between April and May. What at first appeared to be a recovery phase turned out to be a typical bear-market rally. Sellers swiftly regained control and accelerated the decline after the channel's support failed. 

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The bearish narrative is further supported by volume behavior. The biggest spikes in recent weeks have coincided with selloffs rather than recoveries, suggesting that sellers are more confident than buyers. After Bitcoin briefly touched the low $60,000 region, there was some dip-buying activity, but demand was insufficient to buck the trend. The next significant support zone is located between $57,000 and $58,000. 

At the moment, Bitcoin is testing that level. If it breaks decisively, the market may start aiming for the $52,000 area, which is the next significant historical support level and a place where buyers have previously intervened forcefully. One factor prevents a scenario of complete collapse. 

With a reading of about 35, the Relative Strength Index is still close to oversold territory. Such conditions frequently result in temporary relief rallies. However, oversold readings during established downtrends usually lead to brief bounces rather than long-lasting reversals.

Ethereum stays relevantEthereum is far from being forgotten by the market, even after months of disappointing price movement and increasing competition from other networks. Although ETH has substantially underperformed relative to its historical benchmarks, the chart indicates that investors are still closely monitoring the asset, even as it remains caught in a broader bearish trend.

ETH/USDT Chart by TradingViewAfter yet another unsuccessful attempt at recovery, Ethereum is currently trading close to $1,600. According to the daily chart, the asset recently broke down from a descending wedge-like formation that developed between April and May. The pattern resolved to the downside rather than initiating a sustained breakout, pushing ETH back toward local lows and bolstering sellers' dominance. 

The technical picture remains challenging. Ethereum is currently trading below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day major moving averages. While the 100-day and 200-day averages at $1,850 and $2,280, respectively, continue to be significantly above current price levels, the 50-day moving average at $1,690 has served as immediate resistance. The overall trend remains negative until ETH begins reclaiming these levels. 

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However, market behavior refutes the notion that Ethereum has completely lost relevance. Every significant drop attracts buyers who are prepared to step in near support areas, and volume remains relatively steady. The market isn't actively accumulating ETH, but it isn't abandoning it either. The Relative Strength Index is another factor that supports that view. 

The RSI is close to 38, which indicates weakness but not total capitulation. Major bottoms in the past frequently occurred when traders became far more pessimistic than current conditions suggest. Put another way, despite the prolonged correction, there is still active participation in the asset. 

Reclaiming the $1,690 area is Ethereum's primary goal from a technical standpoint. The 100-day moving average around $1,850 would come back into focus if that level were breached. If buyers are able to overcome both obstacles, sentiment may improve significantly. Ethereum remains under pressure, but it is still a major player in the market.