Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Key Points:Gold settled at $4,052.85 Friday, barely higher after Thursday’s 1.94% drop, signaling stabilization, not recovery.Brent fell nearly 4% to $96.78 and yields eased, yet gold buyers showed no appetite to leave the $4,000 area.Rate-hike odds rose to 35.8% for next week and near 80% for September, keeping the dollar firm and gold capped.

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Gold Steadies but Buyers Are Not Convinced Gold held near $4,050 Friday after Thursday’s sharp selloff but the session felt more like a pause than a turn. Crude pulled back from triple digits, Treasury yields eased from their highest levels since January 2025 and the dollar stalled. That combination stopped the selling. It did not start a recovery. Volume was lighter, the range was tight and neither side showed real commitment heading into next week’s FOMC meeting.

Spot Gold settled at $4,052.85, up $3.07 or +0.08%. The small gain followed Thursday’s 1.94% decline.

Gold has fallen about 23% since the U.S.-backed war with Iran began in late February. Friday showed the metal can stabilize when crude and yields pull back. It did not show that buyers are ready to chase prices higher with the Fed meeting next week and the war still escalating.

Crude and Yields Gave Gold Room but Not a Reason Daily September Brent Crude Oil Futures Brent settled at $96.78, down nearly 4%, and WTI finished at $89.31, down 3% after reports that Pakistan is exploring renewed U.S.-Iran talks with China’s support. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.681% after clearing 4.70% Thursday. The 2-year eased to 4.333% and the 30-year settled near 5.16%.

Daily US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield Gold responded but only modestly and that tells you something. The metal held together as yields eased but did not show any appetite to break away from the $4,000 area. The S&P Global flash PMI came in at 53.8, below the 54.4 estimate, which helped bring buyers back into bonds. Still expansion but not the strong print that would have kept the yield surge going.

The crude pullback did not come with a real improvement in the supply picture. U.S. forces completed a thirteenth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian targets. Iran is still disrupting Hormuz traffic. The Houthis said they struck Saudi tankers near Bab el-Mandeb this week. The diplomats are discussing talks while the military is still conducting strikes and those two things do not give gold a clean signal heading into the weekend.

Dollar Held Its Weekly Gain Daily US Dollar Index (DXY) The dollar index slipped 0.04% Friday to 101.48 but was still up 0.7% for the week, on track for its strongest weekly gain in five weeks. Dollar-yen traded near 163.84 after touching its strongest level since 1986 on Thursday as Japan’s verbal intervention efforts have done nothing to change the move.

Gold does not need the dollar to collapse but it needs it to stop climbing before a larger recovery gains traction. Friday’s pause was not enough to change the weekly direction and the greenback is still drawing support from the same forces working against gold.

FOMC Decides Whether the Pause Holds Traders are pricing a 35.8% chance of a rate hike at next week’s meeting, up from 12.8% a week ago. September odds are near 80%. A hold remains the likely outcome but the statement and Warsh’s tone matter more than the decision itself. The Fed is sitting on crude near $100, yields at their highest since January 2025 and jobless claims at their lowest since 1969. That is not the backdrop for a dovish shift.

Warsh dropped easing language from the June statement and has been skeptical of forward guidance since he took the chair. A hawkish statement focused on energy costs and sticky inflation keeps yields elevated and the dollar firm. Even a hold with no change in tone leaves the rate trade intact because the bond market is already doing the tightening.

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) When I look at the gold chart several things stand out to me. I clearly see the series of lower tops and the 50-day moving average at $4231.43, which tells me we’re still in a downtrend. However, I also see a secondary higher bottom at $3959.80 and a main bottom at $3942.10 that suggest an elongated support base may be forming.

I also see the market straddling a short-term retracement zone at $4072.40 to $4041.65. Some traders are treating this area as a pivot zone. In other words, bullish over $4072.40 and bearish under $4041.65. Additionally, bullish traders want to see the formation of another higher bottom.

Bearish traders want to see selling pressure build under $4041.65 after the market formed a new lower top at $4166.13 earlier in the week. The retracement zone that stopped the rally was $4162.36 to $4214.34. This zone also stopped the rally at $4202.71 on July 6.

To simplify the current situation, in order to shift momentum to the upside, XAUUSD has to break the long-term pattern of lower tops.

What to Watch Gold enters next week balanced between the relief from lower crude and the risk that the inflation trade comes back on the next war headline.

The downtrend is intact with lower tops and the 50-day average well overhead. The market is straddling the pivot zone that has been defining the short-term direction. Bullish traders need another higher bottom to confirm the base is building. Bears need selling pressure under the lower end of the pivot to reaffirm the pattern of lower tops that has been controlling this market since January. The pattern of lower tops has to break before this market can shift direction.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

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James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.

The Euro remains supported by expectations of further ECB tightening, but EUR/USD is still struggling to escape the lower end of its July range. EUR/USD traded close to 1.1371 at the end of the latest session, leaving the pair near July’s low after a subdued week for the single currency.

The Euro has fallen in six of the past eight completed sessions and is down around 0.4% for July, having retreated from a monthly high near 1.1481 to within one cent of June’s 1.1325 low.

Both ING and Nordea expect the European Central Bank to maintain a hawkish bias, with further interest-rate increases still likely.

However, neither the rate outlook nor the latest ECB meeting has generated enough momentum to push EUR/USD out of its narrow trading range.

ING expects the pair to remain supported by higher Eurozone rates, but retains a near-term downside bias towards 1.1380.

Nordea goes further, forecasting three additional 25-basis-point rate increases that would lift the ECB deposit rate from 2.25% to 3.00% by March 2027.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.137117 (-0.05%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.332498 (+0.09%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.85169 (0.00%)

ING Sees September Hike Remaining in Play ING had expected the ECB to leave rates unchanged while preserving the hawkish market pricing already embedded in Eurozone interest rates.

Its baseline was for a hawkish hold, with policymakers attempting to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored as European gas and global energy prices remain elevated.

“The aim today could be – once again – to preserve market pricing to limit the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring,” says ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole.

ING argued that achieving this might require a clear indication that a September rate increase remained possible, either through the press conference or subsequent guidance.

The bank noted that the market had already priced approximately 45 basis points of tightening by the end of 2026, setting a relatively high hurdle for the ECB to deliver an additional Euro-positive surprise.

“The hawkish bar set by the market via pricing isn’t low,” says Pesole.

ING nevertheless expected a firm ECB stance to limit the downside for short-dated Eurozone rates and, by extension, the Euro.

The difficulty is that supportive rate differentials have not translated into a decisive EUR/USD advance.

“A central bank meeting would normally be a prime catalyst for EUR/USD to break out of its tight trading range, but we do not expect that to happen,” ING says.

The bank retained a near-term downside bias, arguing that currency markets remained too relaxed about the potential consequences of further escalation in the Gulf.

“Unless the newsflow becomes more constructive, we look for EUR/USD to slip towards 1.1380 in the coming days.”

That target has already been reached, with the pair ending the latest session near 1.1371.

Nordea Forecasts Three More ECB Rate Increases Nordea believes the ECB remains in a genuine tightening cycle rather than delivering one or two isolated increases.

The bank forecasts 25-basis-point hikes in September, December and March 2027, which would raise the deposit rate to 3.00%.

“The ECB did not touch rates today, but the message was in line with more rate hikes to come,” Nordea says.

“Our updated forecast still sees three more rate increases, but at a quarterly pace as opposed to a faster speed before.”

Nordea says the ECB’s latest communication left the door “wide open” to a September increase.

It highlights the central bank’s assessment that energy prices remained close to the assumptions used in its June forecast, which showed core inflation staying above 2% throughout the projection period even with two further rate increases already included.

The bank’s conviction does not depend on another major escalation in the Middle East or a renewed surge in oil.

Instead, Nordea expects broader price pressures and a relatively resilient Eurozone economy to keep the ECB tightening for longer.

“We think that we are amidst a hiking cycle rather than one or two isolated rate moves, and continue to expect the ECB to raise rates three more times.”

The bank has slowed the expected pace of tightening because oil prices have fallen from their earlier highs and the growth outlook has become less certain.

A rapid improvement in the geopolitical backdrop could reduce the need for further action, while a prolonged conflict and renewed energy-price increase could produce faster or additional rate increases.

Image: Nordea chart showing 25-basis-point ECB hikes in September, December and March 2027, taking the deposit rate to 3.00% - Courtesy of Nordea. Energy Inflation May Take Time to Spread Nordea argues that markets and policymakers may still be underestimating the delayed second-round effects of higher energy costs.

Its research notes that during the previous inflation cycle it took several months for rising energy prices to feed into food, goods and services inflation.

It also took considerably longer for forward inflation expectations to peak than for spot inflation itself.

“We still see risks biased towards more second-round impact on inflation than what markets and the ECB expect,” Nordea says.

This possibility supports the case for further tightening even if the immediate increase in oil and gas prices begins to reverse.

The bank also points to inflation expectations that remain above the ECB’s target across several measures.

Its report shows five-year market inflation expectations around 2.26%, while household and large-company measures remain closer to 2.9%.

Nordea expects Eurozone growth of approximately 1% in 2026, although it acknowledges that the risks are tilted to the downside.

The bank nevertheless says the economy has remained more resilient than weak purchasing managers’ surveys would suggest.

Manufacturing output and retail sales increased in the available April and May data, while second-quarter growth may have been around 0.3%.

Nordea expects household consumption to remain the primary source of positive growth, supplemented by investment in technology and defence.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook Despite the increasingly hawkish ECB outlook, the EUR/USD chart shows little evidence of sustained buying momentum.

The pair is trading close to 1.1371, below its 20-period moving average near 1.1372 and beneath session VWAP around 1.1381.

It also remains below the 200-period moving average near 1.1392, leaving the immediate intraday structure tilted to the downside.

EUR/USD attempted to recover towards 1.1390 during the latest session but failed to sustain the move.

The retreat confirms a band of resistance between approximately 1.1380 and 1.1392, with the 1.1400 level providing the next major barrier.

RSI stands around 44, having recovered from levels close to 30.

This indicates that selling pressure has eased and the pair is no longer oversold, but momentum remains below the neutral 50 threshold.

The technical picture is therefore consistent with consolidation near the lows rather than the start of a convincing Euro recovery.

Initial support is located around 1.1368, followed by July’s low near 1.1362.

A sustained break below that area would expose the June low around 1.1325.

On the upside, EUR/USD must first recover above 1.1375 and 1.1381.

A move through the 1.1390-1.1400 region would provide the first meaningful evidence that the Euro is developing greater breakout power.

Image: EUR/USD 15-minute chart showing support at 1.1362, resistance at 1.1380 and the 1.1390-1.1400 breakout zone Why ECB Hikes Have Not Lifted the Euro The lack of a stronger EUR/USD response reflects the fact that much of the hawkish ECB outlook is already priced into the market.

Nordea notes that almost a full rate increase is priced by September, another is largely priced by December and part of a further hike is reflected in March 2027 contracts.

This leaves limited room for interest-rate expectations to move further in the Euro’s favour without a fresh inflation shock or more forceful ECB guidance.

The US Dollar also retains support from higher US rates, geopolitical uncertainty and the risk that elevated energy prices eventually damage global risk appetite.

ING says the current low-volatility environment may be underestimating how quickly Dollar demand could return if financial markets lose their tolerance for higher oil and gas prices.

The Euro is therefore receiving support from ECB tightening expectations, but not enough to overcome simultaneous demand for the Dollar.

Euro Forecast 2026: Latest Bank Projections ING and Nordea both see a hawkish ECB, but the implications for EUR/USD remain restrained.

Nordea expects three further rate increases and a 3.00% deposit rate by March 2027, while ING believes policymakers will keep a September hike in play and defend current market pricing.

These forecasts should limit the risk of an immediate collapse in the Euro.

However, the rate outlook is already heavily reflected in market prices, while geopolitical and energy risks continue to favour the Dollar.

EUR/USD therefore remains vulnerable while below 1.1390-1.1400.

A break beneath 1.1362 would expose the June low near 1.1325, while only a sustained recovery above 1.1400 would suggest that hawkish ECB expectations are finally generating a meaningful upside breakout.

Rabobank expects renewed pressure on Pound exchange rates as concerns over Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s spending plans unsettle the gilt market. The British Pound concluded this trading week facing a difficult combination of political uncertainty, elevated UK bond yields and doubts over how the new government intends to fund its policy agenda.

UK economists at Rabobank say the initial market response to Burnham’s cabinet and early policy announcements has been notably cautious.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.171822 (+0.14%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.332498 (+0.09%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.137117 (-0.05%)

The UK 10-year gilt yield has moved above 5.0%, while Pound Sterling has ranked as the weakest G10 currency over the latest one-day period.

Although the appointment of an experienced Chancellor has offered some reassurance, the bank warns that uncertainty surrounding the government’s fiscal strategy could keep both gilts and the Pound under pressure.

Rabobank analysts expect EUR/GBP to rise to 0.8650 over the next three months and sees scope for GBP/USD to fall back towards 1.3200.

At current rates, those forecasts imply a weaker Pound against both the Euro and the US Dollar.

Rabobank Warns Burnham’s Honeymoon Could Be Brief Rabobank says the appointment of Healey as Chancellor is a stabilising factor because the country’s finances have been placed in the hands of an experienced politician with previous Treasury exposure and respect across Parliament.

However, the larger question is how Burnham plans to finance his agenda.

The Prime Minister has said he intends to use “flexibility” within the fiscal rules, which Rabobank says could point towards placing some infrastructure-related debt on the balance sheets of public financial institutions.

Although such borrowing might sit outside the most closely watched fiscal measures, it would still need to be absorbed by the bond market.

“The market will be wary about whether this constitutes ‘back door’ funding,” Rabobank says.

The government’s first cost-of-living measure is a reduction in VAT on household electricity bills from October.

Officials have indicated that the measure will be funded by cancelling the previous government’s digital identity programme, although reports have raised doubts over whether that scheme was fully funded in the first place.

Rabobank notes that use of greater flexibility within the fiscal rules could potentially mobilise an additional £16 billion for infrastructure projects over the remainder of the decade.

Infrastructure investment could improve productivity in parts of the UK outside London and the South East, but those benefits may take years to materialise.

Burnam, by contrast, faces a general election in less than three years.

That leaves the government under pressure to deliver visible improvements quickly, increasing the risk that spending commitments expand before the economic benefits become apparent.

“The market is now bracing itself for a list of further announcements,” Rabobank says.

“This suggests that funding issues will remain at the fore of the market’s mind and hints that Burnham’s honeymoon may be short-lived.”

Gilt Market Particularly Sensitive The latest UK borrowing figures were slightly better than expected for June, but borrowing over the first three months of the fiscal year remains above projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

At an early stage of the financial year, that overshoot might ordinarily attract limited attention.

Rabobank argues that the political backdrop makes investors more sensitive than usual.

Burnham is associated with the softer left of the Labour Party and has said he wants government to become less reliant on what he described as the “imperial” Treasury.

Against this backdrop, the bond market is likely to demand clear reassurance that new spending plans will remain compatible with the fiscal rules.

Rabobank also highlights structural vulnerabilities in the UK economy.

The country has a low household savings ratio and a substantial current-account deficit, increasing its dependence on overseas capital.

These characteristics can amplify market reactions when confidence deteriorates.

“The UK may not have the largest debt-to-GDP ratio in the developed world, but arguably it has one of the most sensitive debt markets,” Rabobank says.

Lower BoE Expectations Are Another Pound Risk The reduction in VAT on household electricity bills should mechanically lower inflation.

Rabobank also expects headline UK CPI inflation to ease to 2.7% year on year, offering some short-term reassurance to the gilt market.

The inflation outlook remains complicated by higher spot energy prices following the escalation in the US-Iran conflict, but Rabobank believes current Bank of England pricing is too aggressive.

Markets are pricing approximately 43 basis points of BoE tightening over the next six months.

Rabobank expects the central bank to avoid raising rates this year.

“On our view, this is overdone and a reduction in market expectations for BoE policy tightening is another headwind for the pound,” the bank says.

This is important because elevated UK interest-rate expectations have provided Sterling with some protection against fiscal and political concerns.

Were investors to remove those expected rate increases, the Pound would lose part of its yield advantage at the same time as the gilt market remains uneasy about government borrowing.

Image: Exchange Rates UK Research polling shows GBP/USD median bank forecast chart showing the live rate near 1.3325, a Q3 median near 1.32 and the longer-term forecast path GBP/USD Forecast: 1.3200 Comes Back Into View GBP/USD ended the latest session around 1.3325, recording a modest daily gain after Thursday’s 0.47% decline.

The pair has nevertheless fallen by more than two cents from the 15 July close near 1.3540 and remains well below July’s high of 1.3558.

The short-term chart shows Sterling attempting to stabilise around 1.3320 after repeated failures to sustain advances above 1.3340.

GBP/USD is trading close to the 20-period moving average at 1.3327 and session VWAP near 1.3323.

That positioning suggests the pair is currently balanced around its immediate fair-value area rather than developing a strong recovery.

The 200-period moving average near 1.3340 remains the more important overhead barrier.

A recent rebound failed close to that level, confirming the 1.3340-1.3350 region as the first substantial resistance zone.

RSI has recovered to approximately 48 from below 40, showing that downside momentum has eased.

However, the indicator remains below 50 and does not yet signal that buyers have regained control.

Initial support is located around 1.3310, followed by 1.3290.

Rabobank’s 1.3200 objective would come into clearer view following a break below these levels, while July’s low at 1.3221 represents a significant intermediate support area.

On the upside, a sustained move above 1.3340 would reduce immediate downside pressure, although GBP/USD would still need to recover through 1.3400 to suggest the broader July correction has ended.

Image: GBP/USD 15-minute chart with 1.3310 support, 1.3340 resistance and Rabobank’s 1.3200 forecast marked The median bank forecast path also points to near-term weakness before a later recovery.

The Q3 2026 median projection is close to 1.3200, broadly matching Rabobank’s three-month forecast, while the consensus path then rises towards 1.35 in early 2027 and approximately 1.38 by the end of that year.

Rabobank’s view is therefore consistent with the wider consensus in anticipating near-term pressure, although it does not rule out a longer-term recovery.

Image: EUR/GBP survey poll forecasts July 2026 EUR/GBP Forecast: Rabobank Targets 0.8650 EUR/GBP closed around 0.8534 after falling 0.14% in the latest session.

The cross has recovered from July’s low near 0.8455, but remains almost 1% lower for the month and below the July opening level near 0.8614.

The 15-minute chart shows that EUR/GBP has surrendered part of its recent rebound after failing above 0.8550.

The cross is trading close to its 20-period moving average near 0.8533, but remains below session VWAP around 0.8541 and beneath the 200-period moving average near 0.8539.

This leaves the immediate technical picture mixed.

The latest recovery from below 0.8530 shows that selling pressure has moderated, while RSI near 46 has moved above its signal line.

However, the cross remains below the neutral 50 level and has yet to overcome the main intraday resistance cluster.

Initial resistance is located around 0.8539-0.8542, followed by 0.8547 and the recent highs around 0.8550-0.8555.

A break through that area would strengthen the case for a return towards 0.8600.

Rabobank’s 0.8650 forecast lies above the current technical range and would require a more decisive deterioration in Sterling sentiment.

On the downside, support is located around 0.8530, followed by 0.8525.

A break below these levels would weaken the immediate recovery and raise the risk of a renewed move towards 0.8500.

Image: EUR/GBP 15-minute chart with 0.8530 support, 0.8550 resistance The wider bank consensus also leans towards a higher EUR/GBP rate over the coming quarters.

The median forecast stands close to 0.8700 from the third quarter of 2026 through early 2028, before easing towards 0.8600 and then 0.8450 by the end of 2028.

Rabobank’s 0.8650 target is therefore slightly below the near-term consensus median but still implies a meaningful Sterling decline from current levels.

Pound Sterling: Rabobank’s forecasts leave GBP exposed on two fronts Against the Euro, the bank expects EUR/GBP to rise towards 0.8650 as investors question the government’s fiscal plans and reassess the likelihood of Bank of England tightening.

Against the Dollar, it sees GBP/USD falling towards 1.3200 as political uncertainty, gilt-market sensitivity and lower UK rate expectations weigh on the Pound.

The technical charts show that neither move has yet been fully confirmed.

GBP/USD is attempting to stabilise around 1.3320, while EUR/GBP remains below resistance around 0.8550.

However, the fundamental risks identified by Rabobank remain unresolved.

A reduction in expected BoE tightening would remove an important source of Sterling support, while further spending announcements without a convincing funding plan could renew pressure on gilts.

The base case is therefore for Pound Sterling to remain vulnerable, with a GBP/USD break below 1.3290 strengthening the path towards 1.3200 and an EUR/GBP move above 0.8550 opening the way towards Rabobank’s 0.8650 target.

Gold Talking Points: While fundamentals often have drive on big picture trends, the relationship is imperfect. More pressing is positioning and how near-term fundamentals change or continue current themes, and when an overbought trend suddenly faces a change-in-pace, the counter-trend move can be sizable. This explains gold price action so far in 2026.

As we came into the year gold was all the rage. Bitcoin seemed to be an afterthought but with the metal pushing into the $4500 level before the end of last year you didn’t have to look far for forecasts to $6k. And even then, that seemed to be the prudent ones. January went along with that tune, at one point running as high as 31% from the low to the high. But that’s when the proverbial music stopped with a massive sell-off over the next couple of days of as much as 21%.

It’s environments like those that make the efficient market hypothesis nonsensical to defend. And for an outside observer, it can look like a clear display of chaos theory at work. But, the reality is we can condense the ‘whys’ behind the move, and it begins to make a bit more sense.

With a Fed that seemed unconcerned with inflation and a Federal Government unbothered by debt load, gold prices were a natural venue to park capital.

But as the war in Iran brought another inflationary factor into the mix, and as oil prices scaled higher and higher, there was suddenly another concern to deal with, and it’s been the pricing in of that, with the prospect of higher rates in the US, that has had a dominating impact on gold price action so far this year.

Gold Weekly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Gold Loves Lower Real Rates Gold has no yield, and the primary prospect of profit is the ability to sell it at a higher price down the road. This differs quite a bit from other investments that will serve as a storage place for capital, such as bonds. Bonds carry a yield. You earn money simply for being invested in them. And as such, they act as a magnet for capital when they’re high enough that the rate of return is attractive.

After all, this was part of the design of QE…

With the Fed buying bonds in the open marketplace prices went up, and yields went down. If you’re an investor, now you have a much less attractive spot to park your capital. So, what are you going to do, especially when real rates of return for holding a Treasury narrows to lower and lower amounts? You’re probably going to look for somewhere else to invest that capital, like stocks, or perhaps even gold.

This is why gold jumped back in February of 2024 as Austan Goolsbee dismissed the continued above-target inflation prints. It showed the Fed had little tolerance for higher rates, even if their own mandate necessitated that. The expectation for inflation was higher, and the expectation for rates was lower, thus, there was even less incentive for capital to flow into Treasuries or bond-based investments and, instead, that capital pushed into a non-yielding instrument like gold in anticipation of what would happen next.

This is also why gold rallied so hard after the response to the financial collapse, as that QE mechanism made alternatives far less attractive.

Gold Monthly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview What’s Gold Saying Now If gold is looking around the next corner, it’s currently telling us that there may be a mistake in the not-too-distant future, in the form of inflation.

As the Iran war drags on and as the SPR has drained a significant amount of supply, runaway oil prices threaten to drive inflation to the point where the Fed cannot ignore it, much like we saw back in 2022 which was the last time that gold held a prolonged bearish trend, until this year, at least.

We can see this starting to play out in US Treasuries as the 30-year sits on the verge of fresh 17-year highs in yield, and the 10-year carries similar breakout potential. As those instruments jump to higher yields there’s a larger and larger opportunity cost for holding capital reserves in a non-yielding asset, such as gold, particularly when the possibility of selling it down the road for a higher price is less likely than it was a year ago.

It’s not a foregone conclusion yet, of course, as matters can change quickly on this front. But so far Kevin Warsh has sounded much more hawkish than markets were expecting, although I think this can be explained away fairly easily by the fact that he’s trying to retain the idea of Fed independence after the lead-in to his nomination saw it very much come into question.

For next week, I think that’s where the game is for gold. If Warsh comes off as overly hawkish at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, there’s even more reason for longer-term bulls to cut bait, and for prices to tilt back below the $4k level. That could very easily lead to the first close below the big figure since late last year.

But, if stocks are still on their back foot I don’t think this is an envelope that he wants to push that hard. I think that he’ll back off of the hawkish talk during the press conference and that can allow for stocks to find some sense of support, the Dollar to pull back which would mean a lot given the BoJ meeting a day later, and that could allow gold prices to find a bounce.

This isn’t to say that sellers will be completely finished in gold, as I’ve been saying, I think we need to see the $4200 level get taken out first before we can start to posit that a bottom might be in. But given the calendar for next week and the price action in gold, there’s an open door for this scenario to play, and that’s my base case for expectations into the July FOMC meeting.

Gold Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Summary:

The CHF/JPY is currently in consolidation, with traders seeking for fresh triggers ahead of the BoJ's policy decision on 31 July. Current Setup and Live Chart The CHFJPY remains one of the FX market’s safe-haven currency pairs. Both currencies function as safe-haven assets that attract demand during times of geopolitical escalation. However, differing interest rate expectations between the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan drive demand for both currencies, and this is a key driver of price action in the pair. 

Within the current environment of global risk aversion, the Swiss Franc has attracted stronger flows due to the country’s low inflation, a strong external balance, and the SNB’s policy flexibility. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization strategy is still largely seen as accommodative. Furthermore, Japan is a net energy importer and the current environment of high energy prices continues to put pressure on the Yen due to the high energy import bills. Recent price action shows that the currency pair is trading within a consolidation, with the 198.76 and 204.37 price levels serving as the price floor and ceiling, respectively. As we head toward the end of July, this leaves traders searching for new triggers to determine the pair’s price direction. 

CHF/JPY Macro Drivers 1) Safe-haven demand

Both currencies receive safe-haven demand during times of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Specifically, there is demand for government bonds in Switzerland and Japan, the Yen, and CHF-denominated assets. However, there is some degree of relativity when it comes to the shifts in defensive capital flows. The shift in capital flows determines the pair’s direction.

2) Divergent Monetary Policy

Interest rates are low in both countries, but the policy trajectories differ. The SNB is expected to maintain flexibility as long as inflation remains contained.  On the flip side, the BoJ’s policy expectation is gradual normalization, with the potential to tilt toward an acceleration in the tightening process.

3) Geopolitical Uncertainty

The Yen faces additional pressure from geopolitical uncertainty due to its status as a net-energy importer. Uncertainty keeps safe-haven flows elevated and raises the volatility levels across both currencies, with the pair trading within wider ranges than is normally the case.

Price Catalysts for the CHF/JPY 1) Geopolitical developments: The markets will keep watching for new developments and headlines around the military situation as well as the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently blockaded.

2) Central bank communication: Such communication from the Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan typically centers around interventions. For the SNB, the direction of intervention is to weaken a stronger Franc, while the BoJ usually intervenes to strengthen a weaker Yen within the current geopolitical dispensation. Changes in policy guidance would also change expectations due to the relative differential in the interest-rate status in both countries.

3) Global risk sentiment: The markets are currently in risk-averse mode. Demand for the currencies rises during risk-off periods, while risk-on market environments reduce demand for the CHF and the JPY.

CHF/JPY Forecast Scenarios Base case: the current consolidation mirrors the base case scenario, which is why the pair is currently consolidating. Both currencies are beneficiaries of the geopolitical situation, which means that neither has a competitive advantage over the other based on this metric.

Bull case: if there is stronger demand for Swiss assets, or the BoJ remains slow in normalizing its rate policy, we could see more defensive flows to the Franc and a corresponding rise in CHF/JPY. This will enable the pair to break the upper boundary of the consolidation and pursue new highs.

Bear case: more aggressive policy normalization by the BoJ along with a decline in Swiss yield expectations will trigger the bear case scenario. Furthermore, Yen appreciation from stronger demand during market stress heightening will lead to a stronger Yen relative to the Franc. This will lead to a retracement move in the CHF/JPY, breaking the downside barrier of the range.

CHF/JPY Technical Outlook The pair is currently in consolidation. A break of the upper boundary targets the 211.57 price mark, which serves as the 100.0% Fibonacci extension of the 26 May – 28 October 2025 price swing. A further push to the north brings in the 141.4% Fibonacci extension at 219.51, which is also the end-point of the measured move of the rectangle pattern from its pole commencement point at the 186.11 support (25 July 2025 high).

Fig 1: CHF/JPY daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot taken on 25July 2026) On the flip side, a breakdown of the 197.57 support and 27% Fibonacci extension unlocks access to the 192.39 low of 4 December 2025, followed by a touch down at 186.11 if the bulls degrade this support. This move would invalidate the bullish continuation towards 211.57 and 219.51.

ING’s forecast for EUR/USD to retreat towards 1.1380 has already been realised, with the pair now testing its lowest levels of July as higher energy prices support the US Dollar. The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate traded close to 1.1371 late on Friday, extending its retreat from the mid-July peak near 1.1470.

EUR/USD fell 0.30% on Thursday and has now declined in seven of the past eight completed sessions.

The pair is also down by around 0.3% for July, having traded between 1.1362 and 1.1481 during the month.

ING had expected EUR/USD to drift back towards 1.1380 as elevated energy prices continued to favour the Dollar.

That objective has now been reached and modestly exceeded, leaving the market focused on whether support around 1.1360 can prevent a deeper Euro decline.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.137117 (-0.05%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.332498 (+0.09%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.85169 (0.00%)

ING Sees US Dollar Support from Higher Energy Prices ING describes a global investment environment in which equity-market sentiment remains relatively resilient even as higher energy prices push interest rates upwards.

According to the bank, investors are favouring currencies that provide both attractive yields and some protection against a further escalation in energy costs.

“The dollar and the Norwegian krone remain the go-to currencies here,” says Chris Turner, ING’s Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for the UK and Central and Eastern Europe.

The Dollar’s yield advantage and the relative resilience of the US economy leave it better positioned than lower-yielding currencies during a period of elevated oil and gas prices.

ING expects the Dollar Index to remain supported within its 100.35-101.80 range and continues to favour the upside over the short term.

Higher energy prices are particularly relevant for EUR/USD because the Eurozone is a major net energy importer.

An extended increase in oil and natural gas costs can weaken the region’s terms of trade, squeeze household spending and raise costs for European businesses, while simultaneously supporting the Dollar through higher US yields and safe-haven demand.

Image: EUR/USD 15-minute technical chart showing support around 1.1360 and resistance between 1.1380 and 1.1392 EUR/USD Reaches ING’s 1.1380 Target Analysts at ING noted that EUR/USD had initially held up relatively well despite the rebound in energy prices and a rise in European natural gas towards €60 per megawatt hour.

Interest-rate expectations helped explain that resilience.

Higher energy costs encouraged investors to price a more aggressive tightening response from the European Central Bank than from the Federal Reserve, temporarily supporting Eurozone yields and the single currency.

However, ING questioned how much further ECB expectations could move in a hawkish direction.

“It is hard to see the market pricing in even higher ECB rates, regardless of the language delivered at tomorrow’s ECB meeting and press conference,” says Turner.

“Barring a near-term move towards another cease-fire between the US and Iran, our bias remains for EUR/USD to drift back to 1.1380.”

That forecast has proved accurate, with EUR/USD falling through 1.1380 and approaching July’s low around 1.1362.

The question now is whether the retreat represents the completion of the corrective move or the beginning of a more sustained decline.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook Remains Fragile The short-term chart continues to favour the US Dollar, although the Euro is attempting to stabilise near the bottom of its recent range.

EUR/USD trades below its 20-period moving average near 1.1372 and beneath session VWAP around 1.1381.

The pair is also well below the 200-period moving average near 1.1392, confirming that the immediate intraday trend remains bearish.

Repeated failures between 1.1390 and 1.1400 have established this region as significant resistance. The Euro would need to recover above this area to suggest that the sequence of lower short-term highs has been broken.

RSI has recovered to approximately 44 after previously approaching oversold territory.

The indicator remains below the neutral 50 level, showing that bearish momentum is still present, but the recovery from its lows suggests selling pressure is no longer accelerating.

This is consistent with a market consolidating after a decline rather than one already embarking on a convincing rebound.

Initial resistance is located around 1.1374, followed by ING’s former target at 1.1380.

A recovery above 1.1380 would allow EUR/USD to challenge 1.1387 and the 200-period moving average close to 1.1392.

The 1.1400 area then represents the more important technical barrier. A sustained break above it would weaken the immediate bearish case and suggest the pair is returning to a broader range.

On the downside, July’s low at 1.1362 is the key near-term support.

A decisive break beneath that level would confirm that the decline has extended beyond ING’s original objective and expose the lower portion of June’s range.

Energy Market Remains the Key Risk ING’s EUR/USD assessment was conditional on the geopolitical and energy-market backdrop.

A ceasefire or meaningful de-escalation between the US and Iran would reduce the energy-price premium supporting the Dollar and could allow the Euro to recover.

The opposite scenario presents the larger downside risk.

A renewed rise in oil or European gas prices would probably reinforce demand for the Dollar while increasing concerns over the Eurozone growth outlook.

The policy implications are also complicated.

Higher energy prices can raise headline inflation and encourage expectations of tighter ECB policy, but they simultaneously weaken real incomes and economic activity.

ING’s argument is that the market has limited capacity to price substantially more ECB tightening, reducing the potential support available to the Euro from interest-rate expectations.

The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, benefits from a stronger US growth backdrop and a currency that tends to attract demand when geopolitical uncertainty increases.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast ING’s move towards 1.1380 has been completed, but the short-term technical picture does not yet provide a convincing signal that the decline is over.

EUR/USD remains below its main intraday moving averages and continues to trade near the bottom of July’s range.

The 1.1362 monthly low is now the immediate dividing line.

Holding above this level could produce a corrective recovery towards 1.1380 and potentially 1.1390, particularly if energy prices ease or geopolitical tensions subside.

A break below 1.1362 would instead strengthen the Dollar’s advantage and leave EUR/USD vulnerable to a deeper extension lower.

The base case is therefore for the Euro to remain under pressure while below 1.1390-1.1400, with energy prices and developments in the Gulf determining whether the pair stabilises or resumes its decline.

Gold daily chart shows a potential double bottom forming above the $4,000 area. Source: TradingView Dynamic resistance is represented by the 50-day moving average, at $4,230 currently, which will soon converge with the $4,203 area, adding to the significance of the resistance zone. That would increase the chance that a double bottom breakout would also reclaim the 50-day moving average and therefore improve the chance for an extended recovery. A move through this confluence of resistance would therefore provide a stronger technical confirmation than a breakout above $4,203 alone.

Resistance Confluence Meets Critical Support Despite the potential for an upside move, gold shows significant resistance near the $4,203 pivot. In addition to the 50-day moving average joining the price zone, there is a long-term uptrend line and a shorter downtrend line that align. This week’s low of $4,022 is key short-term support, but it remains possible that a decline to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,004 may yet complete the pullback. If that area fails to hold as support, the chance for a bullish recovery in the near-term weakens. Conversely, holding above this support zone would keep the developing double-bottom setup intact and preserve the potential for a breakout above $4,203.

Path Toward $4,496 If a decisive breakout above $4,203 were to occur, then the 200-day moving average defines the key upside target zone. It is now at $4,496. Since the 200-day moving average was broken in early June, the current advance would be the first notable pullback to test it as resistance. Resistance is therefore anticipated, at least on the initial approach. Therefore, holding $4,022-$4,004 is critical before gold can challenge the $4,203-$4,230 resistance zone and target the 200-day moving average.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

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I’ve got some fantastic news.

We don’t need to worry about that Fort Knox gold audit anymore.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent assured us all the gold is there.

His comments came during an interview on Fox News. Host Jesse Watters asked the Treasury Secretary point-blank, “Have you visited Fort Knox?”

"I haven't. People on my staff have. The treasurer has been to Fort Knox, and I'm happy to say all gold is present and accounted for."

There you have it. The fox guarding the henhouse says the hens are all accounted for.

Case closed!

Or maybe not.

Consider this: would you trust a bank that never conducted an external audit?

Would you trust a bank that insisted a thorough audit wasn't even necessary because "everything is fine?"

Would you trust a bank that constantly says, "Trust me!"

You shouldn’t.

Audits serve a variety of functions. In the first place, they catch honest mistakes. Second, they ensure that the players in control of assets and reporting on the organization’s financial dealings are operating above board. Any business that does not implement a regular and rigorous external audit program should be viewed with suspicion.

Now, if you ask, the powers-that-be will assure you that the Fort Knox gold has been thoroughly audited. That’s a little like the kid who stuffed all his dirty clothes under the bed claiming that his room is thoroughly cleaned.

No real auditIf you ask anybody in the government, they will tell you the gold has been audited.

It has not.

Not in any meaningful way since at least the 1970s.

Now, there was a TV show posing as an audit.

In 1974, the government put together a publicity stunt in the name of an audit. The U.S. Treasury opened just one of its 15 Fort Knox vault compartments to politicians and reporters to view the gold and confirm its existence.

Matthew Cortez described this dog-and-pony show:

For about two hours, multiple film and camera crews and smiling politicians filed into a hallway for the chance to hold a gold bar and peek into a room full of gold stacked up to the ceiling.
On their way out, each visitor had to pass by a metal inspector to ensure that none of the gold bars were being snuck out in the process.
Notably, throughout the visit, none of the bars being passed around were matched to a serial number, assayed or tested for purity, or even verified as part of the United States’ holdings. (Foreign countries have at times stored gold there as well.)
It seems the made-for-TV spectacle in 1974 was more of a pep rally than any credible proof of what the amount of U.S. gold purported to be in those vaults.

So, yeah. That's not an audit. It's political propaganda.

In a proper audit, every bar would be counted and inspected. Serial numbers would be matched to records. The gold would be assayed to verify its weight and purity. And the details of the audit would be published and available for public inspection.

None of that has happened.

Following the 1974 publicity stunt, the U.S. Treasury says it conducted a multi-year process of opening and inventorying vault compartments and affixing new tamper-evident seals to the doors of each compartment upon completion. 

They call these audits.

They are not.

These so-called audits failed to meet basic transparency or accounting standards.

Some reports have since gone missing, and there is no record of comprehensive assaying, weighing, or transactional history available to the public.

Furthermore, there is evidence that seals on vault compartments have been broken over the years, bars have been moved for unknown reasons, and seals have been re-affixed without fresh auditing. Subsequent annual reviews of the schedules of compartment seals simply whitewash prior discrepancies.

In sum, the U.S. Treasury's management of U.S. gold reserves is replete with audit "no-nos" that would never pass muster at a responsibly run private depository.

If you have nothing to hide...The other curious thing is that anytime somebody like me says we should audit the Fort Knox gold, a bunch of government apologists come out and indignantly insist, “We don’t need to!” And then they attack me like I’m some kind of kook for even suggesting such a thing.

I guess I can understand if you opposed an audit due to the cost or some other practical reason. I can't understand why you would become indignant at the mere suggestion of an audit. That's not normal behavior.

Maybe it’s just me, but when somebody gets all upset when I suggest checking their work, I suspect their work might not be up to par.

I mean, think about it; you don’t have anything to hide, why wouldn’t you want the gold holdings to be verified? What’s the harm in an audit? Why this insistence that it isn’t necessary (when audits are necessary in every other business setting)?

In fact, if I were running a gold depository, I'd be clamoring for a public audit, if for no other reason than to calm the public fears. I would want people to know everything is on the up-and-up. The only reason I would resist an audit is if I knew I was hiding something. 

So, what's it going to be?

Are we going to take Bessent's word for it? Or is somebody finally going to step up and do the right thing?

Summary:

EUR/USD has trended lower since mid-July, struggling at 1.1480 resistance and forming a double-top pattern amid dollar strength Dollar safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions, not rate divergence, is the main driver behind the euro's recent pullback lower Fundamentals favor the dollar due to US economic resilience and policy divergence, while technical patterns warn of potential further declines The EUR/USD currency pair has declined since mid-July, encountering repeated rejections at the 1.1480 resistance level. This pattern of failed attempts to break higher has formed a double-top, indicating a potential reversal. The pair is currently trading at a lower level compared to the start of the month.

What the Chart Is Showing The pair opened last week near 1.1425, spiked to 1.1480, then drifted before selling pressure returned. That 1.1480 level has now been tested and rejected multiple times through July, and a confirmed close below the 1.1405 support would effectively validate the double-top reversal, opening the door to a deeper pullback.

As of the latest session, EUR/USD was trading near 1.1380 after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. That’s a meaningful break of the range the pair had held for over a week.

Fundamental Factors Shaping the Pair Several factors have contributed to the euro’s recent weakness. The US dollar has shown persistent strength, driven by expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, supported by robust US economic data and geopolitical tensions that increase demand for safe-haven assets. In contrast, the Eurozone is facing headwinds such as slower growth prospects and vulnerability to energy price fluctuations.

Navigating the current EUR/USD market environment involves assessing macroeconomic challenges alongside short-term trading possibilities. If US economic data continues to be strong while Eurozone growth decelerates, the interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is likely to remain favorable to the US dollar.

Additionally, rising global oil prices and ongoing geopolitical friction are impacting Eurozone manufacturing, potentially exerting further downward pressure on the euro.

The ECB’s decision to hold interest rates steady, without providing clear guidance on future policy adjustments, did not offer the market a catalyst for a sustained euro rally based on rate divergence. In the absence of a clear hawkish stance from either central bank, the dollar has become the path of least resistance, particularly with geopolitical instability adding to risk-off sentiment.

Risks and Opportunities Ahead Opportunities exist on both sides. A continued breakdown could extend declines toward 1.13 or lower, rewarding short positions. On the upside, a decisive break above 1.1480 might signal exhaustion of sellers and open targets near 1.1575-1.1600, benefiting long exposures.

Risks include sudden shifts from central bank rhetoric, unexpected economic data surprises, or rapid changes in risk sentiment driven by global events. The opportunity sits on the other side of that coin. If geopolitical tensions ease and incoming US data softens, the dollar’s safe-haven premium could unwind quickly, and the euro’s stalled ascending channel would reassert itself.

What caused EUR/USD’s double-top pattern?

Repeated failed attempts to break above 1.1480 resistance, combined with dollar safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions and a cautious ECB.

Why didn’t the ECB decision help the euro?

The ECB held rates without signaling future direction, denying the market the clear rate-divergence catalyst that typically drives sustained euro strength.

What could reverse the dollar’s current strength?

The current strength of the dollar could be reversed if Middle East tensions de-escalate or if upcoming US economic data weakens, leading to a reduction in the dollar’s safe-haven premium.

Silver (XAG/USD) edges higher on Friday as a pullback in Oil prices pushes US Treasury yields lower, while the US Dollar (USD) fluctuates near recent highs. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $58.60, up 2.40% on the day.

Despite the pullback, Oil prices and US Treasury yields remain elevated, keeping Silver's upside in check as persistent inflation concerns reinforce hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.

Higher borrowing costs typically weigh on non-yielding assets such as Silver. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders see an 80% chance of a rate hike in September, although the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting.

From a technical perspective, Silver has traded between $55 and $63 since late June, pointing to signs of stabilization following a series of lower highs and lower lows from May’s peak near $90.00.

However, XAG/USD is struggling around the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.82, while the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at $65.44 and $71.21, respectively, keep the broader bearish structure intact.

Momentum indicators paint a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 45 points to subdued momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits slightly above the zero line, indicating moderate selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 36 indicates that the broader trend retains meaningful strength.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the horizontal floor near $55, where buyers previously stepped in. On the topside, bulls need to reclaim the 21-day SMA at $58.82 to ease immediate downside pressure. Further resistance is located at $63 and the 50-day SMA at $65.44.

Only a sustained break above these barriers would begin to challenge the broader bearish structure, with the 100-day SMA at $71.21 acting as the next major hurdle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Key Points:EUR/USD gained some ground as traders reacted to PMI reports. GBP/USD moved higher, supported by stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales. USD/JPY continued its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 163.50 - 164.00.

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U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Oil Pulls Back

DXY 240726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders focus on the pullback in the oil markets. WTI oil declined towards the $88.00 level as traders hoped that U.S. and Iran will get back to negotiations. Falling oil prices reduced demand for safe-haven assets, which was bearish for the American currency.

Today, traders also focused on PMI reports. Manufacturing PMI declined from 53.9 in June to 53.8 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 54.3. Services PMI improved from 51.2 to 53.6, compared to analyst consensus of 51.5. Numbers above 50 show expansion.

EUR/USD Gains Gound As Euro Area PMI Reports Exceed Estimates

EUR/USD 240726 4h Chart EUR/USD attempts to rebound as traders focus on better-than-expected PMI data from the EU. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.4 in June to 52.0 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 51.5. Euro Area Services PMI improved from 49.4 to 51.6, compared to analyst consensus of 49.8.

The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1350 level, it will head towards the next support level at 1.1270 – 1.1285.

GBP/USD Gains Ground As UK Retail Sales Beat Estimates GBP/USD 240726 4h Chart GBP/USD is moving higher as UK Manufacturing PMI and UK Services PMI exceeded analyst estimates. Falling oil prices provided additional support to the British pound.  Better-than-expected Retail Sales report served as an additional positive catalyst for GBP/USD. The report indicated that Retail Sales increased by +1% month-over-month in June.

Currently, GBP/USD is trying to settle back above the resistance level at 1.3335 – 1.3350. In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the 1.3335 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3414. A move above the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the resistance level at 1.3450 – 1.3465. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

USD/CAD Is Mostly Flat As Traders Focus On Commodity Markets USD/CAD 240726 4h Chart USD/CAD is mostly flat despite the rebound in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are moving higher in today’s trading session.

In case USD/CAD pulls back below the 50 MA at 1.4061, it will head towards the support level at 1.4010 – 1.4025.

On the upside, USD/CAD needs to settle above the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. A move above the 1.4140 level will push USD/CAD towards the next resistance level at 1.4235 – 1.4250.

USD/JPY Tests Resistance At 163.50 – 164.00 USD/JPY 240726 4h Chart USD/JPY remains stuck near the 164.00 level as traders react to inflation data from Japan. Inflation Rate increased from 1.5% in May to 1.7% in June, in line with analyst consensus. Core inflation Rate increased from 1.4% to 1.6%. The report has also met analyst estimates.

From the technical point of view, USD/JPY attempts to settle above the resistance level at 163.50 – 164.00. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above the 164.00 level, it will head towards the psychologically important 165.00 level. These levels have not been tested since 1986. RSI is in the overbought territory, but there is some room to gain additional momentum in the near term.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

The Pound Sterling advances by some 0.20% on Friday as Oil prices tumble, weighing on the US Dollar, while the US-Iran conflict signals a further escalation, which market participants ignored. Despite registering daily gains, the GBP/USD is poised to finish the week with losses of nearly 0.70%. Read More...

British Pound retreats from 1.3340 as bright UK data fails to offset risk aversionThe British Pound (GBP) remains depressed near three-week lows against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with upside attempts capped below 1.3340, and on track for a 1% weekly decline. The upbeat UK Preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Retail Sales reports failed to lift the Pound, heavily weighed by risk-averse markets and increasing fiscal concerns in the UK. Read More...

British Pound rebounds above 1.3300 ahead of UK Retail Sales dataThe GBP/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.3325, snapping the five-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Friday. However, the potential upside might be limited amid heightened military tensions in the Middle East. Traders brace for the release of the UK Retail Sales data, which will be published later on Friday. Read More...

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is slightly higher versus the US Dollar (USD) but lagging most G10 peers. Markets are discounting strong United Kingdom (UK) retail sales and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surprises ahead of next week’s expected Bank of England (BoE) hawkish hold. Rate markets price modest tightening by September and November, while options show renewed demand for downside protection in GBP.

BoE expectations and politics temper Pound"Market participants are clearly not responding to fundamentals and ignoring the release of (far) stronger than expected retail sales data for June alongside a solid surprise to the preliminary PMI’s for July – the latter offering decent levels of expansion in manufacturing (52.8) while also delivering an unexpected recovery out of (sub-50) contraction in services with a print of 51.8."

"The data are important heading into next Thursday’s BoE, where a hawkish hold is expected to be delivered alongside a fresh set of forecasts. The rate path is currently priced for 16bpts of tightening in September and 32bpts for November, offering the potential for near-term upside if policymakers seek to firm up expectations for a hike at the next meeting."

"The options market appears to be signaling a renewed demand for protection against GBP weakness, with a clear turn from last Wednesday’s local peak. The catalyst is likely a combination of geopolitics and domestic political concerns, both generating a meaningful increase in UK government bond yields and threatening the UK’s overall fiscal situation."

"Neutral—the RSI remains close to neutral as the GBP softens back toward the midpoint of its range from mid-June. Local support is found at 1.3150 with resistance at 1.3550. We had anticipated some nearer support closer to 1.3350 but now look to 1.3300 as a limit to short-term weakness."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Daily US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield The 10-year yield hit near 4.71% Thursday, the 2-year pushed near 4.37% and crude crossed $100. Silver held together through all of it and then turned higher Friday when crude and yields backed off. The shorts who pressed into that setup expecting follow-through did not get it and some of those positions had to come off Friday morning.

The 10-year is trading closer to 4.68% Friday. That is still elevated but the direction changed and for a market that had been absorbing higher yields all week, a pause was enough to bring in buyers. Brent slipped below $100 as traders booked profits after the sharp weekly run and WTI eased with it. That took the edge off the inflation pressure and gave the Treasury selloff room to stall.

FOMC and Oil Keep the Ceiling Low The covering rally does not change the rate picture. Fed funds futures are still pricing a meaningful chance of a hike at next week’s meeting even though a hold remains the most likely outcome. The probability of additional tightening through early 2027 is higher than it was before crude started running and Warsh does not have to raise rates to put pressure back on silver. A statement focused on elevated energy costs and sticky inflation does the same job because the bond market has already been doing the tightening work on its own.

Iran is still restricting Hormuz traffic. Saudi Red Sea routes are under pressure after Houthi attacks on tankers this week. Trump threatened a broader attack on Iran and a fresh escalation puts crude back in control fast. Friday’s pullback gave silver room but that room disappears if the next headline sends crude back toward triple digits and the yield trade reignites.

Spot Silver (XAGUSD) Technical Analysis

Key Market Levels $4,000, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and that in and of itself probably attracts some attention as well. With this, the market looks very noisy, very choppy, but I think we also have to assume that the market is going to have to make a bigger decision sooner or later.

We are in the dead of summer, and markets can be quiet this time of year, so do keep that in mind. But as things stand right now, this looks like a market that probably is frozen by headlines as well, with the noise in the Middle East. A little bit of sideways action, really not a huge surprise as the markets continue to see a lot of choppiness.

Gold has protected wealth for centuries, but buying, storing, and moving it has never been especially convenient. Tokenized gold such as Tether Gold (XAUT), together with digital wallets such as Solonix Wallet, is creating a more flexible way to gain exposure to the metal — while introducing a new set of risks investors need to understand.

Gold has an unusual place in modern markets. It does not generate earnings, pay interest, or depend on a company’s business model. Yet investors, households, and central banks continue to hold it because it has historically served as a store of value and a portfolio diversifier.

The reasons for owning gold have stayed broadly familiar. The way investors access it has not. Coins and bars remain the most direct form of ownership, while exchange-traded products and mining shares offer more liquid market exposure. Now tokenization is adding another option: a digital token linked to physical gold held in a vault.

This does not turn gold into a new asset. It changes the infrastructure around it. Instead of arranging delivery, storage, and insurance for a physical bar, an investor can hold a divisible digital representation in a compatible wallet and transfer it through blockchain networks.

Why investors still turn to goldGold is often discussed as a defensive asset, especially when inflation is elevated, geopolitical risk increases, or confidence in currencies and government finances weakens. Its performance is not predictable, and it can experience long periods of decline or stagnation. Still, it often behaves differently from equities and bonds, which is why some investors use it as a stabilizing element rather than a source of regular income.

Its appeal also comes from what it is not. A share is a claim on a company, a bond is a promise from a borrower, and a bank deposit depends on a financial institution. Physical gold is not another party’s liability. That characteristic does not remove price risk, but it helps explain why the metal remains relevant even after the end of gold-backed monetary systems.

The renewed accumulation of gold by central banks has reinforced that role. Reserve managers commonly cite diversification, liquidity, and the absence of credit risk among the reasons for holding the metal. Private investors may have different objectives, but the underlying idea is similar: gold can provide exposure to an asset that sits outside the usual chain of financial promises.

The practical limits of physical goldOwning coins or bars gives an investor direct control over the metal. It also creates practical work. The gold must be purchased from a reliable dealer, authenticated, transported, stored, and sometimes insured. Smaller products usually carry higher premiums per gram, and selling can involve a meaningful spread between the quoted market price and the amount a dealer is prepared to pay.

For an investor who wants an emergency reserve outside the financial system, these trade-offs may be acceptable. For someone who wants to adjust a position frequently, invest a smaller amount, or transfer value internationally, physical ownership can be cumbersome.

Gold exchange-traded funds solve part of this problem. They are easy to trade through a brokerage account and can provide efficient price exposure. However, investors generally own shares in a financial vehicle rather than an identified piece of metal, and transactions remain tied to brokers, market hours, fund structures, and custodians.

What tokenized gold actually meansTokenized gold is designed to combine physical backing with digital transferability. A provider issues blockchain-based tokens that represent a defined quantity of gold held by the issuer or a custodian. The token can then be stored in a supported digital wallet, divided into smaller units, and transferred without physically moving the underlying bars each time ownership changes.

That structure can make gold more accessible. An investor does not necessarily need to purchase a full coin, bar, or troy ounce. A position can be built in smaller increments, and the token may be moved at any time when the relevant blockchain and service are available.

Tokenization should not be confused with eliminating intermediaries. The investor still relies on the issuer’s terms, the existence and custody of the gold, the integrity of the smart-contract and blockchain infrastructure, and the security of the wallet used to hold the asset. The metal may be traditional; the ownership and settlement system is not.

How Tether Gold (XAUT) worksTether Gold, commonly identified by the ticker XAUT or XAU₮, is one of the best-known gold-backed tokens. According to its issuer, one whole XAUT token represents one fine troy ounce of gold on a London Good Delivery bar, with the underlying metal held in Swiss vaults.

The token can be divided into smaller units, allowing investors to obtain exposure to less than one full ounce. Its market value is intended to follow the value of the represented gold, although the actual trading price can also be influenced by liquidity, platform fees, spreads, and conditions on the blockchain network being used.

XAUT is therefore different from a dollar-linked stablecoin. It is not designed to remain worth one US dollar. Its value moves with gold, which means holders remain exposed to the same fundamental price risk as other gold investors.

Tether’s significance in the gold market is growing rapidly. According to Reuters, the company held approximately 154 tonnes of gold across its products at the end of the first quarter of 2026. Around 22 tonnes were used to back Tether Gold, while the remainder formed part of the reserves supporting the USDT stablecoin. Reuters also noted that, if Tether were a central bank, its gold holdings would place it among the world’s 20 largest official holders.

Where Solonix Wallet fits inA token is only useful to most people when they have a practical way to acquire, hold, view, and transfer it. This is the role of digital-asset platforms and wallets. Solonix.one positions its Solonix Wallet as a digital environment through which eligible clients can work with supported assets, including tokenized gold in the form of XAUT.

For users who want gold exposure without personally arranging storage or transportation, the model can be straightforward: the investor holds the digital token in Solonix Wallet while the physical backing remains within the custody structure established by the token issuer.

The appeal is mainly practical. A user can work with fractional amounts, view the position alongside other supported digital assets, and transfer tokens through compatible blockchain infrastructure. This can be useful for investors who are comfortable with digital assets but want exposure to something linked to a long-established real-world commodity.

Solonix Wallet does not change the economics of gold. It is an access and management layer. The price can still fall, and the investor still needs to understand the token issuer, custody arrangements, fees, supported networks, withdrawal rules, and the legal availability of the service in their jurisdiction.

A more flexible route, not a risk-free oneTokenized gold replaces some of the operational risks of physical ownership with digital and institutional risks. A holder no longer needs to protect a bar at home, but must protect account credentials and follow safe wallet practices. There may be less concern about testing a coin for authenticity, but more reliance on reserve reporting, the issuer’s contractual framework, and the parties safeguarding the underlying metal.

Blockchain transfers can also be unforgiving. Sending an asset to an incorrect address or through an unsupported network may lead to permanent loss. Service interruptions, cyber incidents, changes in regulation, or reduced market liquidity can affect access and execution even when the underlying gold remains in place.

Redemption is another area that deserves attention. A token may be linked to physical gold, but exchanging digital units for delivered bars is normally governed by the issuer’s conditions, minimum sizes, verification requirements, fees, and geographic limitations. Investors should not assume that holding a small fraction of a token means they can request delivery of the equivalent quantity of metal.

Who might find tokenized gold usefulTokenized gold may suit investors who want gold exposure but prefer digital settlement, fractional ownership, and easier transfers. It may also appeal to existing crypto users who want to diversify away from purely crypto-native assets without leaving blockchain-based infrastructure.

It is less likely to satisfy someone whose main purpose is to keep wealth completely outside digital and financial systems. For that objective, personally controlled coins or bars may be closer to the investor’s intention. Likewise, a traditional gold ETF may remain more convenient for people who already manage their portfolio through a regulated securities broker and do not need blockchain transferability.

The relevant question is not whether one format is universally better. It is which combination of ownership structure, liquidity, custody, convenience, and risk best matches the investor’s objective.

Gold is staying the same while access evolvesGold’s basic investment case has changed little. It remains a non-yielding asset whose price is driven by supply and demand, real interest rates, currency expectations, central-bank activity, and investor sentiment. What is changing is the number of ways people can hold and move exposure to it.

Tokenized products such as XAUT are part of a broader effort to bring real-world assets onto digital rails. Platforms such as Solonix.one and tools such as Solonix Wallet can make that structure easier for eligible users to navigate, particularly when the alternative is arranging the purchase and custody of physical metal themselves.

Convenience, however, should not be mistaken for simplicity at the risk level. Before using Solonix Wallet or any other service for tokenized gold, investors should review the provider’s current terms, security model, fees, supported networks, withdrawal procedures, regulatory status, and the issuer’s documentation for the underlying token.

Tokenization can make gold easier to divide and transfer, but it cannot make prices predictable or replace due diligence.

GBPCAD: ⬆️ Buy

– GBPCAD reversed from the support area

– Likely to rise to resistance level 1.8800

GBPCAD currency pair recently reversed from the support area between the support level 1.8720 (which reversed the price multiple times at the end of June), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May.

The upward reversal from this support zone stopped wave c of the earlier ABC retracement 4 from the start of July.

GBPCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.8800 – former low of the previous correction a.

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USD/MXN sits at 17.47988, drifting sideways within the shaded 17.50 zone. Source: TradingView The US dollar has drifted a little bit lower against the Mexican peso, and while the interest rates in America are fairly high by historical standards, traders still get paid to hold pesos, not dollars here. So, this, too, is following the interest rate differential path. The 50-day EMA is right at the 17.43 level, and of course, we’ve seen some sideways action between 17.35 and 17.60 over the last several weeks.

Looks like more of the same here. 17.50 seems to be a little bit of a magnet for price, but ultimately this is a market that’s just trying to figure out what to do longer term. This pair does get to be choppy for a while. This is part of the reason why these pairs attract so many inflows at times to use for that overall interest rate differential payment at the end of the day. Right now, though, there are so many questions involving the Middle East, the global economy, and everything else; it’s not a surprise that we’re somewhat stagnant.

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Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observe that while the European Central Bank (ECB) left rates unchanged in July and is expected to deliver at least one more 25 bp hike to 2.50% in September, rising energy prices still tilt terms-of-trade in favor of the US Dollar (USD) over the Euro (EUR). Europe’s status as a net energy importer versus the US as an exporter leaves the Euro more vulnerable to sustained Oil strength.

Energy terms-of-trade still favor Dollar"Meanwhile, the ECB kept rates unchanged in July as expected and did not push back against market pricing for a 25bp hike in September."

"We continue to expect a final 25bp increase to 2.50% in September, although the risks are tilted towards an additional hike."

"Even with the ECB maintaining a hawkish bias amid rising energy prices, relative terms-of-trade dynamics favour the USD over the EUR."

"Europe remains a net energy importer, while the US is a net energy exporter, making the euro more vulnerable to sustained increases in oil prices."

"Energy-linked currencies such as NOK have outperformed, while net energy importers including NZD and SEK have lagged."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold (XAU/USD) steadies on Friday after falling nearly 2% the previous day, as surging Oil prices fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates amid a worsening inflation outlook. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,060 after hitting an intraday low of $4,022.

A pullback in Oil prices pushes the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields slightly lower, lending some support to the precious metal, which typically moves inversely to both. Still, the upside remains limited as market sentiment stays tied to the hawkish Fed narrative, while the prospects for peace in the Middle East appear slim in the near term.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 78% chance of a rate hike in September, while the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its July 28-29 meeting.

Trade tensions also add to the inflation concerns after the United States (US) imposed new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on imports from 60 trading partners on Friday.

On the geopolitical front, the US military completed its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump told Axios that he was “considering a massive attack” and was “close to making a decision.” Iran has also targeted US military bases in Jordan and Bahrain.

The war is now threatening two major energy-shipping routes, the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, raising the risk of prolonged supply disruption and keeping Oil prices elevated.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rallied 6% on Thursday, briefly climbing above $92.00. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $88.50, hovering near its highest level in more than a month.

Analysts at ING note that “despite ongoing geopolitical risks, gold has struggled to attract meaningful safe-haven demand since the conflict began,” with investor attention instead shifting toward “the inflationary implications of higher oil prices and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates.”

Against this backdrop, Gold’s near-term outlook remains tilted to the downside. However, the yellow metal continues to hold above the psychological $4,000 mark, leaving XAU/USD broadly range-bound between $4,000 and $4,200 for a fifth consecutive week.

On the US economic docket, traders await the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, due during American trading hours.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD holds firm above $4,000

On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish near-term tone, holding below the Bollinger middle band (20-period Simple Moving Average) at $4,068 and well below the 100-day simple moving average near $4,480.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers below the 50 line, while an elevated Average Directional Index above 35 hints that the prevailing downside phase still carries meaningful trend strength despite recent consolidation.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band around $4,068, with further upside barriers at the upper Bollinger band near $4,180, followed by a more strategic horizontal resistance at $4,350 and the distant 100-day SMA around $4,480.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at the psychological $4,000 mark, followed by the lower Bollinger Band near $3,957. A more substantial demand zone is seen around $3,800, where buyers could step in if the decline extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.10%-0.07%-0.05%-0.04%-0.34%-0.30%-0.01%EUR0.10%-0.02%0.00%0.02%-0.30%-0.26%0.05%GBP0.07%0.02%0.02%0.04%-0.28%-0.23%0.06%JPY0.05%0.00%-0.02%0.03%-0.30%-0.25%0.03%CAD0.04%-0.02%-0.04%-0.03%-0.32%-0.28%-0.01%AUD0.34%0.30%0.28%0.30%0.32%0.05%0.32%NZD0.30%0.26%0.23%0.25%0.28%-0.05%0.28%CHF0.00%-0.05%-0.06%-0.03%0.01%-0.32%-0.28% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Key takeawaysSilver trades near the 57.0–57.6 participation zone as investors evaluate the latest manufacturing signals across Europe, the United States and Asia.Manufacturing expectations are gradually stabilizing, supporting industrial metals through improving production activity while financing conditions and energy costs continue shaping business confidence.Industrial fabrication, electrification and technology investment remain the principal structural demand channels supporting silver.The Renko structure has entered a Compression phase, indicating that participation is rebuilding while markets await stronger confirmation from the global manufacturing cycle.Silver follows the manufacturing cycleSilver enters Friday's session with market attention increasingly centered on the industrial economy.

This week's macro calendar has progressively shifted the focus away from inflation releases and toward manufacturing conditions across the major economies. The European Central Bank delivered an unchanged policy decision, while investors continue evaluating how manufacturing activity is responding to evolving financing conditions, energy prices and business confidence.

For silver, this transition carries particular importance.

Industrial production remains the dominant transmission channel connecting macroeconomic activity with physical demand.

Every improvement in factory utilization supports fabrication demand.

Every increase in technology investment strengthens consumption across electronics, automation and power infrastructure.

Every expansion in manufacturing activity reinforces participation across industrial metals.

Silver therefore continues reflecting the quality of the production cycle rather than the direction of monetary policy alone.

Manufacturing expectations continue improving across major economiesRecent macroeconomic releases describe a manufacturing environment that is becoming progressively more balanced.

The Eurozone manufacturing sector has continued recovering from the contraction that dominated much of the previous two years. Factory output has improved, production expectations have strengthened and inventory rebuilding has gradually returned across several industrial sectors. Reuters also notes that activity has benefited from easing cost pressures and a recovery in new orders, providing a firmer foundation for industrial production.

In the United States, manufacturing activity has remained above the expansion threshold, indicating that industrial demand continues supporting production despite higher financing costs. Markets now await the latest PMI figures to evaluate whether this stabilization can extend into the second half of the year.

Japan continues contributing positively to the global industrial picture. Factory production has expanded at its fastest pace in several years, supported by electronics, advanced manufacturing and export-oriented industries, although logistics and energy costs continue influencing business planning.

Together, these developments suggest that manufacturing expectations are becoming more stable across the major industrial economies.

Industrial demand continues defining silver's identitySilver occupies a unique position within the industrial economy.

Electrification.Power grids.Semiconductors.Industrial electronics.Automation.Artificial intelligence infrastructure.Solar installations.Each sector contributes to fabrication demand through different investment cycles.

This diversification increases the resilience of industrial participation because demand develops across multiple technologies simultaneously.

The Silver Institute continues projecting another annual market deficit, while mine supply expands only gradually. Supply elasticity therefore remains limited even as fabrication techniques continue improving material efficiency.

A modest improvement in industrial demand can therefore generate a disproportionately larger effect on market participation whenever available supply adjusts more slowly than consumption.

This interaction remains one of silver's defining structural characteristics.

Manufacturing quality matters as much as manufacturing growthIndustrial participation depends on more than production volumes.Energy costs influence operating margins.Credit availability shapes investment decisions.Inventory rebuilding determines procurement activity.Business confidence influences capital expenditure.Each transmission channel contributes to the pace at which fabrication demand develops.The current macro environment therefore supports a gradual rebuilding of industrial participation rather than an immediate acceleration.

Markets continue evaluating the quality of manufacturing recovery across regions while monitoring how businesses respond to financing conditions and input costs.

Silver naturally reflects these adjustments because industrial demand represents the largest component of its long-term consumption profile.

Technical structureThe Renko chart illustrates a market transitioning into a participation rebuilding phase.

Following the advance toward the 60.6 area, silver has entered an orderly consolidation above the long-term EMA200, preserving the broader recovery established during recent weeks.

Price currently trades below the EMA9 and EMA21, reflecting moderation in short-term participation while maintaining the broader structural framework.

Silver enters a Compression phase as manufacturing expectations stabilize, industrial demand remains resilient and participation begins rebuilding across industrial metals.The EMA200 continues rising beneath current prices, confirming that the medium-term trend remains constructive despite the recent consolidation.

The most significant signal comes from the ECRO, which currently reads 6.3 and has entered a confirmed Compression regime.

Participation has returned to very low levels.

Energy is gradually rebuilding.

Delta ECRO has improved to +6.3, indicating that institutional participation is beginning to recover from the recent compression phase.

The stochastic oscillator continues rotating lower toward oversold territory, remaining consistent with a market redistributing participation before its next directional expansion.

Immediate participation develops between 57.0 and 57.6.

Initial resistance emerges near 58.6, followed by the broader participation objective around 59.8–60.0.

The technical structure remains aligned with a market waiting for stronger confirmation from the global manufacturing cycle.

Bird's eye viewSilver continues functioning as an industrial participation asset.

Manufacturing expectations are gradually stabilizing across the major economies.

Industrial fabrication remains supported by electrification, technology investment and infrastructure development.

Supply elasticity continues limiting the market's ability to respond rapidly to changes in fabrication demand.

The Renko structure mirrors this macro environment through a confirmed Compression phase, where participation is rebuilding while investors wait for the next catalyst capable of reactivating industrial momentum.

OutlookSilver enters the final trading session of the week with manufacturing expectations becoming the dominant macro reference for industrial metals.

Upcoming PMI releases, the evolution of industrial orders and business investment will continue shaping fabrication demand during the coming weeks.

As long as manufacturing participation continues improving and supply elasticity remains constrained, silver is likely to remain closely linked to the quality of the global industrial cycle rather than short-term fluctuations in monetary policy.

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