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EUR/AUD’s down trend resumed by breaking through 1.5951 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.6334 to 1.5951 from 1.6264 at 1.5881. Firm break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.5644. On the upside, above 1.6004 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5963 (2024 low). Should confirm that it’s already reversing whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) and pave the way to this support. However, decisive break of 1.6264 resistance will indicate medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 1.6842 resistance, even as a corrective bounce.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.4281 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6523) holds.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

EUR/JPY resumed by breaking through 176.19 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week with focus on 175.26/41 support zone. Strong rebound from there, followed by firm break of 177.95 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. However, sustained break of 175.26/41 will carry larger bearish implications. Next target is 100% projection of 186.00 to 177.82 from 181.53 at 173.35.

In the bigger picture, price action from 187.93 is seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 154.77 (2025 low). Strong support should be seen from 175.41 cluster support (2025 high) and 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 187.93 at 175.26 to contain downside. However, decisive break will raise the chance of larger bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 167.43.

In the long term picture, as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 187.93 at a later stage. However, considering bearish divergence condition in M MACD, firm break of 175.41 will argue that a major top is already in place, and target 55 M EMA (now at 163.51).

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.4298 continued last week and met 38.2% retracement of 1.3730 to 1.4298 at 1.4081 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week, sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3792 next. On the upside, above 1.4080 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective rebound from 1.3480 has completed at 1.4298 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 at 1.4290. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3927) will solidify this case. That would in turn indicate that fall from 1.4791 might be ready to resume. Retest of 1.3480 low should be seen next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4298 holds.

In the long term picture, strong support from 55 M EMA (now at 1.3654) argues that up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.4791 is in favor at a later stage. However, firm break of 55 D EMA will argue that the five-wave up trend has already completed.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

USD/CHF’s fall from 0.8394 extended to 0.8190 last week but recovered. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Below 0.8190 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8394 at 0.8092. On the upside, above 0.8629 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.7603 should at least be reversing the medium term trend. Focus is on 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation. Firm break there will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8590. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.7948 support holds.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.8571) holds.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

EUR/USD stayed in sideway consolidations last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further decline is expected with 1.1276 resistance intact. . Below 1.1111 will extend larger fall from 1.2081 to 1.0904 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.1276 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1373).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.2081 medium term top could be reversing the rise from 1.0176 (2025 low), and probably even that from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.0904 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1710 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, immediate focus is now on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1246). Sustained break there will argue that rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) has completed as a three wave corrective move at 1.2081, after rejection at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level. That will keep the long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

The Japanese Yen finished the week on a higher note as the USD/JPY pair registered losses of over 0.74% in the week, while holding firm daily amid a sour market mood. The pair trades at 156.85 as a ‘hammer candle pattern' forms.

As the trading week comes to an end, one of the most relevant developments in the FX market has been the renewed strength of the Japanese yen. This can be seen in the recent performance of USD/JPY, which has fallen nearly 1.0% over the last two trading sessions, highlighting a meaningful recovery in the Japanese currency against the U.S. dollar.

For now, the selling pressure observed around the pair is being driven primarily by the loss of momentum in U.S. Treasury yields. This has been reinforced by Japan's latest inflation data, released toward the end of the week, which has started to strengthen expectations of a potentially more aggressive Bank of Japan in the coming months. As a result, the yen has managed to recover part of the ground lost in previous months and, as long as these catalysts continue to support the Japanese currency, selling pressure around USD/JPY could remain relevant in the sessions ahead.

Is the Dollar Beginning to Lose Strength?
A loss of momentum around the U.S. dollar became increasingly evident throughout the week. Part of this dynamic has been driven by the moderation observed in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which temporarily moved below the 5.0% area.

This development is important because lower yields reduce part of the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated investments. As a result, demand for the U.S. currency may also begin to soften in the short term.

The impact has already started to become visible in the behavior of the DXY, the index that measures the strength of the dollar against its main peers. In recent sessions, the index has retreated consistently, moving away from its yearly highs and currently trading near the 102-point area. This decline suggests that demand for the dollar has begun to moderate after several weeks of relatively solid strength, a dynamic that appears closely linked to the loss of momentum in the U.S. bond market.

Source: TradingEconomics

This behavior is particularly relevant because, as part of the relative advantage of holding dollar-denominated assets begins to fade, other currencies such as the yen have started to recover ground. In fact, the recent strength observed in the Japanese currency appears closely tied to this loss of relative attractiveness within U.S. financial markets.

As long as Treasury yields continue moving within a moderation phase, the yen could continue recovering part of the ground lost throughout much of 2026. Under this scenario, selling pressure around USD/JPY may remain an important factor influencing the pair in the short term.

Do Japan's Inflation Data Matter?
In addition to the weakness observed in the dollar, investors have also been paying close attention to Japan's latest inflation release. Annual inflation rose to 2.1%, reaching its highest level of 2026 and maintaining a relatively consistent upward trend over recent months.

This remains important because inflation is now developing slightly above the 2.0% target established by the Bank of Japan, a situation that could start generating greater concerns about inflationary pressures within the Japanese economy.

Source: TradingEconomics

The data have also started to influence monetary policy expectations. Only a few weeks ago, markets were pricing more than a 90% probability that the Bank of Japan would leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% during the October 28 meeting. However, by the end of the week that probability had fallen toward 80% area.

At the same time, expectations for the December meeting now imply close to a 60% probability that interest rates could rise to 1.50%.

Source: Centralbankwatch

This suggests markets are increasingly positioning for a more aggressive Bank of Japan over the coming months. Although Japanese rates remain relatively low compared to the current 4.0% reference rate in the United States, it is important to remember that Japan has maintained exceptionally low rates for decades.

For this reason, any gradual shift toward a more restrictive monetary policy stance could begin to alter investor perceptions regarding yen-denominated assets. If this process continues, the interest-rate differential between Japan and other major economies could gradually narrow, eventually becoming a meaningful catalyst for demand for the Japanese currency.

As a result, if the Bank of Japan continues moving toward a more aggressive stance than markets have been accustomed to over recent years, selling pressure around USD/JPY could remain an important theme even beyond the short term.

USD/JPY Technical Forecast

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

The bearish bias is becoming relevant once again: Although USD/JPY had recently entered a phase of short-term neutrality after partially breaking the bearish trendline developed over previous months, recent price action has once again given prominence to selling pressure. As a result, the broader bearish structure is regaining relevance within the daily chart. As long as price continues approaching key support zones, the long-standing bearish trendline could once again become the dominant technical structure during the weeks ahead.

 
MACD: The MACD histogram continues to trade slightly below the 0 neutral line, a reading that reflects weakening momentum within short-term moving averages. If this dynamic remains intact, it could continue supporting a more established bearish bias in the sessions ahead.

 
RSI: A similar picture can be observed in the RSI, whose line remains below the 50 neutral level. This suggests that selling momentum has started to regain traction and supports the possibility that the bearish bias could remain relevant in the short term.

 
Key Levels:

158.86 – Key Resistance: A level that aligns with the 200-period simple moving average and represents the most important upside barrier in the short term. A sustained move above this reference could significantly alter the current technical structure and open the door to a more consistent bullish trend over the coming weeks.

 
157.38 – Near-Term Barrier: A level that coincides with the base of the recent consolidation range and also develops near the 50-period simple moving average. This could become the main level to monitor in the event of short-term bullish corrections.

 
155.30 – Key Support: A support zone established during previous weeks that remains one of the most important downside barriers on the chart. Price action returning toward this level could restore the dominance of selling pressure and reinforce the relevance of the broader bearish trendline as the market's primary technical structure over the coming weeks.

 
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

Spot silver (XAGUSD) is edging lower late in the session on Friday, but a little off its intraday low and lowest level since November 25, 2025. The catalyst behind today’s weakness is higher energy prices. They are fueling persistent inflation concerns while reinforcing U.S. rate hike expectations ahead of the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting.

At 18:57 GMT, Spot Silver is trading $53.99, down $0.60 or -1.10%. The low of the session is $53.03. The high is $54.75. Additionally, it is currently down over 5% for the week.

Rising Crude is the Major Issue
International benchmark Brent crude oil reached a five-month high early Friday and that seems to be all silver traders needed to cap gains and keep the precious metal under pressure. Essentially, it was Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia that generated increasing concerns over a further disruption to energy supplies.

Because inflation is still a major headache, the major central banks won’t be able to cut interest rates or ease up on monetary policy as quickly as they’d like. Right now, that’s a tough hurdle for silver investors hoping for a rally.

Silver is also being impacted by the sharp sell-off in the global equity markets. Weakness in leveraged positions in volatile technology stocks is leading to margin calls, which is forcing some hedge funds to sell silver to meet the margin call.

Switching back to the rate hike concerns, the market now largely expects the Federal Reserve to leave policy unchanged at next week’s meeting, but December is still a major worry. According to the FedWatch Tool, there is a 92% chance of the Fed leaving rates where they currently are and a 78% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is due to be released on October 29. It could offer further insight as to the state of inflation. It will be released shortly before the Fed concludes its policy meeting so it may have an impact on its decision. Earlier in the month, stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer and producer inflation numbers supported the case for tighter monetary policy later this year.

Silver Price Forecast

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Weekly Spot Silver (XAGUSD) Technical Analysis

Weekly Spot Silver (XAG/USD)
Spot silver is set to finish sharply lower this week.

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $71.18 will change the main trend to up. Taking out this week’s low at $53.03 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The market is currently trading inside a long-term retracement zone at $60.835 to $46.48. To some investors, this area represents value.

Spot silver is also trading on the bearish side of the 52-week moving average at $68.99.

The primary driver of my downside bias on the weekly chart is the market’s relative position to the 52-week moving average. The trading action since July, however, is showing signs that some investors are recognizing the importance of the $60.835 to $46.48 retracement zone. Overcoming $60.835 will weaken my bearish outlook. The major target zone on the weekly chart is $46.48 to $45.55. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could re-emerge on a test of this area.

Daily Spot Silver (XAGUSD) Technical Analysis

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD)
Spot silver is lower on Friday, but recovering from early session selling. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $53.03 signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will turn up on a move through the last main top at $61.46. This will put it on the strong side of the long-term 50% level at $60.835 and on the weak side of the 50-day moving average at $63.11.

My bias is to the downside. It is supported by the downtrend on the swing chart and the persistent trade on the bearish side of the 50-day moving average. XAGUSD is currently trading inside a major value area defined by $60.835 to $46.48. Despite the downtrend, value buyers can step in at any time to produce counter-trend short-covering rallies. However, they are not likely to be a concern for short-sellers until they overcome the long-term 50% level at $60.835 and the 50-day moving average at $63.11.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

The single currency alternated gains and losses against the US Dollar (USD) this week, prompting EUR/USD to stabilise around the 1.1200 neighbourhood on Friday, while remaining unable to sustain its earlier bull run toward the 1.1260 zone. On the monthly chart, the second drop in a row appears almost unavoidable.

Furthermore, spot has given away around six big figures since its peak past 1.1700 in the summer, coming under increasing selling pressure since then in tandem with the strong bounce in the Greenback.

On the latter, the US Dollar has traded on the back foot this week, as the ongoing bullish move appears to have taken a breather alongside alternating moods regarding developments from the Middle East crisis. 

Next week could be critical for the pair in light of both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) meetings, where both central banks are expected to keep a steady hand this month.

No news is hardly good newsGeopolitical tensions remain stubbornly elevated. The familiar US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz shows little sign of resolution, while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict adds another layer of uncertainty, keeping risk aversion alive and safe-haven demand supported.

Energy prices put the ECB back on the defensiveThe geopolitical fallout is increasingly visible in energy markets. Crude Oil prices continue to climb, European fuel costs are rising, and gas price forecasts face repeated upward revisions. For the energy-dependent Eurozone, this represents more than another squeeze on household budgets: it threatens to turn an external price shock into a more persistent inflation problem.

That is precisely where the European Central Bank faces its biggest challenge. Policymakers can look through a temporary jump in energy prices, but not if higher costs spread into wages, services and inflation expectations. With growth already vulnerable to expensive energy imports, the ECB risks having to tighten policy into a weakening economy simply to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. The longer the energy shock persists, the stronger the case for additional tightening becomes. Markets are already pricing in around 18 basis points of further rate hikes by year-end.

Now, about inflation…According to Friday’s ECB survey, Eurozone consumers’ inflation expectations rose slightly over the 12-month horizon in September, while longer-term expectations remained unchanged. The survey points to persistent upside risks for the ECB, although it does not yet suggest a fresh deterioration in medium-term expectations.

Inflation expectations for the next year increased to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Expectations three years ahead held at 2.9%, while the five-year measure remained unchanged at 2.5%.

The latest survey is mildly hawkish for monetary policy. 

Near-term expectations remain elevated and above the bank’s 2% target, but the stability of the three- and five-year measures suggests that longer-term expectations have not materially de-anchored. The ECB will nevertheless remain alert to the risk that persistent energy and supply pressures may begin to influence broader price-setting behaviour.

Crowded shorts meet a surprising options divergenceEUR bearish positioning intensified in the week ending October 13, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data.

That said, non-commercial net shorts increased to around 137.6K contracts, while the weekly change deteriorated to -38,241 contracts from -36,076. The four-week change tumbled to around -110.6K contracts, confirming that bearish speculative positioning continues to deepen.

Also, open interest rose to around 874.6K contracts. The deeper net shorts, combined with a slightly higher participation, suggest a continued bearish positioning, though the modest increase in open interest implies the latest move was not accompanied by a significant expansion in overall market activity.

The speculative exposure plummeted to -15.73% (previously -11.41%), and its percentile dropped to 0 (from 0.7). The Net Position Percentile also remained at 0. Both measures are now at the most bearish levels in the five-year reference period, showing that EUR positioning is historically extreme both in absolute terms and relative to open interest.

However, the options market presents a contrasting picture. The one-month 25-delta Risk Reversal was -0.531 volatility points on October 22, implying that EUR puts are still priced higher than equivalent calls. But the reading is at the 30.7th percentile of its five-year distribution, indicating that the downside skew is quite moderate compared with the extremely bearish positioning in futures markets.

More importantly, option pricing has now become decidedly less bearish compared to EUR/USD spot performance. The pair has dropped 1.45% over the last month, but Risk Reversals were higher by 0.114 volatility points. Historically, a decline of such magnitude would have implied a deterioration of about 0.223 volatility points based on their history.

Instead, the positive deviation of 0.337 volatility points is at the 89.5th percentile of the out-of-sample distribution. This implies that options have repriced the EUR much more positively than spot moves would imply in isolation, creating a large divergence between speculative futures positioning and options sentiment.

That said, the latest weekly Risk Reversal change of -0.082 volatility points suggests that some demand on the downside has returned, meaning the improvement in options sentiment is not yet firmly established across all time horizons.

Overall, the positioning on the EUR remains decisively bearish, but the divergence between futures and options is something to watch. Speculative shorts are exceptionally extended, while options markets are displaying considerably less downside concern than the EUR’s recent weakness would normally suggest. This combination raises the risk of a short-covering rebound if bearish momentum begins to fade, although the continued deterioration in weekly futures positioning means that a sustained reversal remains unconfirmed.

What’s in store for EUR/USD?The coming week may be key for EUR/USD: preliminary inflation figures from Germany and the Euroland will provide fresh clues on whether the recent energy-induced price pressures are beginning to feed through to inflation expectations.

In addition, the ECB is widely anticipated to leave its policy rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, while the usual press conference by President Christine Lagarde is expected to highlight persistent energy-driven inflation.

Across the Atlantic, the focus will be on the FOMC gathering on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) also seen leaving its Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) at 3.75%-4.00%. Data-wise, investors are also expected to keep their focus on inflation measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) and another estimate of the Q3 GDP Growth Rate.

Too bearish to fall, too weak to rally?While the Euro may be near a level where selling is becoming more difficult, that doesn’t necessarily mean the overall bearish trend is losing momentum. The pair stays close to 1.1200 after giving up some six big figures from summer highs. The short-term outlook is fragile, with the Greenback holding a bid amid relatively solid US fundamentals, higher Treasury yields and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Still, positioning suggests the next move may not be entirely smooth. Speculative EUR shorts are at 5-year extremes, and options markets are showing much less conviction in the bearish theme than the recent decline in spot would imply. That divergence makes spot more and more susceptible to a short-covering rally if next week's Fed meeting turns out to be less hawkish than what investors are currently expecting.

However, a recovery driven primarily by position adjustment would hardly qualify as a genuine change in trend. The Eurozone remains particularly exposed to elevated energy prices, and while those pressures could keep the ECB leaning towards further tightening, they also threaten to undermine growth. That uncomfortable combination limits the extent to which a hawkish ECB can provide lasting support for the single currency.

Looking beyond next week's central bank meetings, the balance of risks therefore remains tilted to the downside. A sustained recovery would likely require a meaningful retreat in US yields, a broader improvement in risk appetite and convincing evidence that the Fed's tightening cycle is approaching its end. Without those catalysts, any rebound towards the 1.1260 area could struggle to attract sustained buying interest, leaving the 1.1000 psychological threshold as a plausible medium-term destination.

For now, the Euro may be due for a bounce, but the burden of proof remains firmly on the bulls.

Inflation FAQs

Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Gold (XAU/USD) price prolongs its agony, tumbling by nearly 0.60% on Friday and poised to finish the week with losses as higher energy prices increase the chances that major central banks could tighten monetary policy to control inflation.

Silver has slid into a long-term support zone between $50 and $55 after the liquidation in precious metals deepened on Friday, taking out its July low in the process. Gold's drop below $4,000 underlined the scale of the selling, as higher oil prices revived inflation worries and investors cut risk across the board.

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels AUD/USD has rebounded more than 2% from the October lows after defending major support at the lower boundary of a multi-month consolidation pattern. The breakout above the October opening range shifts the near-term focus higher with weekly momentum now approaching a critical threshold The advance is testing initial Fibonacci resistance, with a weekly close above this barrier needed to reinforce the case for a more significant low. Australian CPI and the Federal Reserve rate decision headline next week's event risk, with month-end positioning adding to volatility risks. Resistance 7025, 7107/16, 7208/14 (key) - Support 6938/48, 6876 (key), 6717/57 The Australian Dollar has mounted a sharp recovery from critical technical support, with the latest advance marking a meaningful shift in the near-term outlook. AUD/USD is now challenging an important Fibonacci threshold as weekly momentum approaches a potential bullish shift, raising the stakes for today's close. The broader consolidation remains intact, however, and buyers still have work to do before a more sustained advance can be confirmed. Attention now shifts to next week's Australian inflation report and Federal Reserve rate decision, with the reaction in interest-rate expectations likely to play a key role in shaping price action into month-end. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that, AUD/USD was approaching key support and that, “From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards 6945- rallies would need be limited to 7116 IF Aussie is heading for a break lower with a close below 6876 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Price registered an intraweek low at 6894 two-weeks later before rebounding with a breakout of the October opening range extending more than 2% off the monthly lows this week.

The bulls are attempting to mount resistance today at the 38.2% retracement of the September decline at 7025. Note that weekly RSI is attempting to breach the 50-level. A weekly close above this threshold, alongside a break of Fibonacci resistance, would strengthen the case for a more significant near-term low and keep the bulls in control heading into next week. Watch today’s close.

Subsequent topside objectives are eyed at the 61.8% retracement and the February high close at 7107/16 with key resistance steady at 7208/14. This region is defined by the 61.8% retracement of broader the 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the 2025 rally and converges on the upper bounds of the March consolidation pattern over the next few weeks. Strength surpassing this slope would expose the 2026 & 2019 yearly highs at 7278/95.

Weekly support rests with the June low week close (LWC) which converges on the 52-week moving average near 6938/48. Ultimately, the bears would need to break below the March close low at the 6876 to validate a breakout of this massive consolidation structure with the next major technical consideration seen at the 2025 close high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance at 6717/57.

           

Bottom line: AUD/USD has rebounded off confluent support near the lower bounds of a multi-month consolidation pattern. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6938 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7025 needed to keep the immediate recovery viable heading into the close of the month.

AUD/USD event risk intensifies next week with Australia’s quarterly CPI release and the Federal Reserve decision both due Wednesday. Markets have already lifted expectations for an RBA hike at the November meeting after Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that the inflation outlook had deteriorated, making the CPI report particularly important for the Australian dollar. U.S. GDP and PCE inflation follow Thursday, while month-end positioning and the monthly close on Friday could amplify volatility if the data trigger a broader shift in rate expectations. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly / monthly closes for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Australia / US Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts British Pound (GBP/USD) Euro (EUR/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Gold (XAU/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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The week closes with a familiar tone: macro pressure, fragile sentiment, and markets searching for direction. Bitcoin started the week at $81,000 and ends it at the same level, despite multiple attempts to break higher. Gold slid decisively below $4,000, oil climbed to $114, ETF flows flipped from strong inflows to heavy outflows, and geopolitical tension is setting the stage for another wave of volatility.

Crypto traders enter the weekend with more questions than answers — and the charts reflect that uncertainty.

Bitcoin: A week that started and ended at $81kBitcoin’s weekly range tells the full story:

Weekly open: ~$81,000Mid‑week high: ~$84,800–85,000Thursday breakdown: ~$80.8–81.3KWeekly close: ~$81,000Despite strong ETF inflows earlier in the week — over $1.07 billion across Oct 19–21 — Bitcoin failed to break above the $85K resistance. The ETF bid was real, but not enough to offset macro selling, tech weakness, and leveraged liquidations.

By Thursday, ETF flows flipped:

Outflows: ~$380–635 millionLiquidations: ~$370–470 million (majority longs)Dominance: ~58–60%The $81K level, widely seen as the ETF cohort’s cost basis, is being tested, not defended. A sustained close below it puts the mid‑$70Ks back on the map — and this weekend may show whether Bitcoin is ready to revisit that zone.

Last weekend’s pump vanished in hours. This weekend may reveal the road to $70K.

Gold Breaks Below $4,000: A 3.5% Weekly Slide

Gold suffered one of its sharpest weekly declines of 2026:

Thursday close: ~$4,024 (–2.8%)Friday range: ~$4,010–4,030Weekly decline: ~3.5%Year‑to‑date: far below early‑2026 highs near $5,400Technical indicators confirm the bearish momentum:

Parabolic SAR flipped downwardBollinger Bands widened to the downsidePrice sits near multi‑month lowsSilver mirrored the decline with multi‑percent lossesGold’s breakdown reflects tightening financial conditions, rising yields, and a stronger dollar — all driven by the latest U.S. labor data.

US Jobless claims hit a three‑month low — Fed pressure intensifiesThe macro shock of the week came from the U.S. labor market:

Initial jobless claims: 194,000Expectations: 200,000Previous: 199,000Fewer layoffs signal a resilient labor market — and that resilience gives the Federal Reserve less reason to cut rates. Higher‑for‑longer policy expectations pushed:

Treasury yields higherU.S. dollar strongerStocks lowerCrypto into another liquidation cycleThis is the type of macro tightening that forces markets to reprice risk quickly.

Oil at $114 and Climbing: Inflation Risk Returns

Oil remains one of the biggest macro threats:

Brent: $110–114WTI: elevatedDrivers: Middle East tensions, Iran supply risk, global inventory concernsHigher oil means:

Higher CPI componentsHigher transportation and manufacturing costsMore pressure on central banksLess room for rate cutsMore stress on risk assetsCrypto historically struggles when oil spikes — and this week was no exception.

PEPE Becomes the New DOGE: Leading the OG Alt Movement

While majors struggled, PEPE emerged as the standout performer of the week.

PEPE is now:

Leading memecoin flowsOutperforming DOGE and SHIBDriving liquidity into OG alt sectorsBecoming the “new DOGE” in terms of sentiment and community momentumIn a week where majors were flat or red, PEPE’s strength shows that retail appetite is still alive — but highly selective. “NFA DYOR”

AVAX: Big wallet transfer sparks speculationAVAX saw a notable large‑wallet transfer this week, triggering speculation about:

Institutional repositioningOTC accumulationInternal treasury movementPotential ecosystem announcementsWhile price remained under pressure, the on‑chain activity suggests that AVAX might quietly be preparing for its next major cycle.

Geopolitics: Tension building againGeopolitical risk is rising:

Middle East tensions escalatingEnergy markets tighteningEurope facing fiscal pressureAsia dealing with tech valuation stressMarkets are bracing for another round of geopolitical waves — and crypto will react instantly to any escalation.

Conclusion: Stay safe, have a great weekend — And eliminate the noiseThis week proved once again that macro drives everything,

Bitcoin started and ended at $81K. Gold broke below $4,000. Oil climbed to $114. ETF flows flipped. PEPE led the alt movement. AVAX showed big wallet activity. Geopolitics tightened. Tech sold off. Crypto liquidations surged.

So take this weekend to:

Mute the noiseAnalyze your positionEnhance your strategyStick to fundamentalsRespect your riskTrust your systemWhether you spot trade, hold, or day trade — eliminate the noise and stick to your winning strategy.

U.S. manufacturing output recovered from 98.2 in August to a preliminary 98.4 in September, matching July’s reading. Some Scenarios The most supportive combination would be easing real yields along with resilient activity. For the weekly outlook, this distinction matters a bit. The favorable monetary environment can encourage investment demand, while manufacturers may still be a bit cautious if final demand is uncertain. Stronger production, on the other hand, can improve the industrial case even when monetary conditions remain somewhat restrictive.

Unemployment Claims Thursday’s unemployment claims report illustrates why the growth picture remains somewhat mixed. Initial claims declined to 194,000 for the week ending October 17, while continuing claims increased to 1.728 million for the week ending October 10. These are differently dated measures, but they give us an idea of what is going on through the broader U.S. economy.

Inflation complicates the outlook for industrial margins and financing as well. September final-demand producer prices rose 1.3% month over month, seasonally adjusted, and 6.3% year over year, unadjusted, in the October 15 release. These are broad producer-price measures, not a silver input-cost index, so silver should just be thought of as a bit of a component in the larger picture. Persistent cost pressure could squeeze some manufacturers or encourage restrictive monetary policy, so these numbers will be watched.

Federal Reserve Meeting Next week’s first major test is the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, October 28, scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern, with a 2:30 p.m. press conference. A policy message that permits real yields to stay lower could help silver’s monetary argument. A renewed emphasis on inflation could restrain the market, as tighter monetary policy continues to work against it.

On October 29, there is the BEA advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays announcement, coming out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. GDP can help us assess demand and investment conditions. The personal income and outlays release supplies PCE inflation and household-spending evidence. For silver, resilient real demand with moderating inflation would be a favorable combination.

Gold tests the lower boundary of its $4,000–$4,200 demand zone as elevated real yields limit upside potential despite hopes for a short-term rebound.

The United States (US) midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, could trigger a major repricing of the US Dollar (USD), Treasury yields, and Gold, but the outcome is not predetermined. With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for grabs, the vote will serve as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency, and prediction markets currently price in a roughly 60% chance of a Democratic sweep, about 30% for a divided Congress, and have almost priced out a Republican sweep. Because Congress shapes taxes, spending, government borrowing, and scrutiny of Federal Reserve (Fed) appointments, the result could push long-term yields, and Gold along with them, decisively in either direction. The key Gold levels to watch sit around $4,000 on the downside and $4,500 on the upside.

What the midterms can (and cannot) changeThe US midterm elections take place on November 3. With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for grabs, the US midterms will serve as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency, with control of Congress, the cost of living, and the ongoing Iran war dominating voters' concerns. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers. Democrats need to gain seats in both chambers to secure control of Congress.

Why does this matter to financial markets? Because Congress has a major role in shaping taxes, spending, healthcare policy, government borrowing, and the legislative agenda. A change in congressional control could make it harder for the White House to pass new legislation. It could also increase scrutiny of the administration's policies and appointments.

But traders need to understand one important distinction: a midterm election changes the balance of political power, not the presidency itself. Even if Democrats gain control of Congress, existing policies would not automatically disappear. A divided government could limit new legislation while leaving the administration with considerable influence over trade, sanctions, and foreign policy.

That means the market reaction may depend less on who wins and more on what investors believe the result means for economic growth, inflation, government debt and the Federal Reserve. The election result alone won't tell us how financial markets would react — what matters is how markets are pricing the three possible outcomes.

Scenario one: The Democratic sweep, the market's base caseCurrently, prediction-market pricing gives a Democratic sweep a probability of approximately 60%, although these odds can change before election day. At first glance, investors might expect this outcome to weaken the US Dollar because it would constrain Trump's legislative agenda. A Democratic-controlled Congress could restrain additional tax cuts and spending without necessarily reversing the administration's existing policies. A Democratic Senate could also increase scrutiny of Fed appointments, potentially limiting the administration's influence over the central bank and easing concerns about its independence.

If markets interpret the outcome as a more restrained fiscal path, Treasury yields could face some downward pressure. That could support Gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. However, one important factor remains. If the administration responds by relying more heavily on tariffs, sanctions, or other executive measures, uncertainty could remain elevated. Depending on the reaction across major currencies and bond markets, the USD could still strengthen against some peers. So don't automatically buy Gold just because Democrats win. Watch the US Dollar and Treasury yields after the result.

Scenario two: Democratic House, Republican SenatePrediction-market pricing puts the probability of Democrats winning the House while Republicans retain the Senate at roughly 30%. This would create divided government and make major legislative changes more difficult. The White House could face greater congressional scrutiny, but Congress would not automatically reverse its existing policies. This scenario could broadly be neutral for the USD and US Treasury markets.

For Gold, that suggests the election result alone may not generate a sustained trend. Instead, traders may return their attention to the Federal Reserve, inflation, energy prices, government debt, and geopolitical developments. In other words, political headlines could create short-term volatility, but the broader macroeconomic backdrop would still determine whether Gold can establish a lasting move.

With a divided Congress, the election may deliver less of a clear fiscal signal. A Republican sweep, by contrast, could change expectations for spending, borrowing and inflation.

Scenario three: The Republican sweep, the biggest repricing riskThis outcome could produce the biggest market repricing, as markets have largely priced it out. A Republican sweep could give the administration greater room to pursue its legislative agenda, including additional fiscal stimulus. If investors anticipate stronger growth, higher government borrowing or more inflationary pressure, they could demand higher yields on longer-dated US Treasuries. That could support the USD if markets interpret the yield rise as a sign of stronger growth or tighter monetary policy. For Gold, this could create a significant headwind.

Are higher yields confidence, or fiscal concern?Another factor could matter more than the election headline itself: the cost of financing US government debt. When Treasury yields rise, the government pays more to borrow as it issues new debt or refinances maturing obligations. Higher yields can also feed through to borrowing costs across the wider economy, including mortgage rates.

A month before the vote, the US average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.49%, its highest level since November 2023, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The rise came as Treasury yields increased amid inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and the government's substantial financing needs.

Why should Gold traders care? Because higher long-term borrowing costs can tighten financial conditions across the economy. More expensive mortgages can weigh on housing demand. Higher financing costs can also pressure businesses and government budgets. If investors believe a Republican sweep will lead to more borrowing and fiscal stimulus, long-term yields could rise further. Initially, that could support the US Dollar and pressure Gold.

But a second possibility exists: If yields rise because investors grow increasingly concerned about government debt, fiscal sustainability, or the credibility of US economic policy, the USD may not strengthen as expected. Gold could benefit if investors turn to it as a store of value or a hedge against broader financial uncertainty.

This is the central question traders should ask: Are higher yields reflecting confidence in the US economy or growing concern about the US fiscal outlook? The answer could determine whether Gold falls or proves unexpectedly resilient.

Gold's technical picture: The burden of proof is on the bulls

Gold weekly chartGold's weekly chart shows that the medium-term recovery remains unconfirmed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the neutral 50 level. This suggests momentum remains weak, though the market is not necessarily oversold. More importantly, Gold is trading below two major weekly moving averages. This alignment puts the burden of proof on the bulls.

The first major support is at the psychological $4,000 area. A hotly contested election, a Republican sweep that lifts expectations for fiscal expansion, or a stronger USD could add pressure, but the bearish scenario would need confirmation from price action. A break below $4,000 would be a more significant deterioration in the technical picture. Traders would then target the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $3,850, followed by $3,800.

On the other hand, in a Democratic sweep, investors would expect more fiscal restraint, lower long-term yields and reduced uncertainty around the Fed's independence. Then, the yellow metal could attempt a recovery. Gold first needs to reclaim the $4,215-$4,250 area. That's the confluence zone of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $4,700 and the 21-week SMA. Above that, the next hurdle is the $4,400 zone, where the 50% Fibonacci resistance and the psychological level intersect. A sustained move above the resistance zone would improve the recovery case and open the door to the $4,460 region, where the 61.8% Fibonacci hurdle and 50-week Simple Moving Average align. The next resistance comes in at $4,500.

Recapturing those levels would provide stronger evidence that the recovery is gaining traction. 

If the election produces political gridlock and neither party can materially change the fiscal outlook, Gold could remain range-bound between $3,850 and $4,400. Investors could then refocus on inflation, the Fed's policy path, energy prices and economic growth.

Beyond the ballot: three risks for Gold tradersThe chart gives us the key levels: $4,000 and $3,850 below, and $4,400 and $4,460 above. However, Gold traders must watch three risks.

First, the Federal Reserve. If inflation stays elevated and policymakers signal further tightening, Gold could struggle even if election-related uncertainty increases.Second, geopolitical developments. A possible escalation involving Iran is an upside risk for the US Dollar. Depending on the nature of the shock, Gold could also attract safe-haven demand.Third, the US debt ceiling. Difficult negotiations in 2027 could create volatility in short-dated Treasury bills and broader financial markets.These risks show why it is dangerous to assume that one election result will dictate Gold's direction for months. Markets respond to the full policy and economic consequences, not just the political headline.

The bottom lineThe US midterm elections could trigger a major repricing of the US Dollar, Treasury yields, and Gold, but the outcome is not predetermined. A Republican sweep could raise fiscal-expansion concerns and pressure Gold if yields and the US Dollar rise. Democratic gains could limit new legislation and support Gold if yields ease. A divided Congress could leave markets focused on the Federal Reserve and the wider economic outlook.

Technically, watch $4,000 and $3,850 on the downside, and $4,400 and $4,460 on the upside. Don't trade the election headline. Trade the confirmed reaction.

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) strategist Elias Haddad reports EUR/USD trading defensively below 1.1200 after weaker-than-expected Eurozone PMI, which still signals robust growth.

Silver (XAG/USD) slides to fresh yearly lows on Friday after plunging 5.8% on Thursday as concerns over AI-related investments weighed on equities, but failed to spark safe-haven demand for Silver as investors favour government bonds.

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight renewed weakness in Gold despite falling US Treasury yields and rising geopolitical risks. They note that surging Oil prices are reviving inflation concerns and expectations of prolonged restrictive Fed policy, weighing on Gold. They remains cautious, saying easing Oil prices, lower real yields and a better price response are needed for Gold to regain traction near term.

Safe haven struggles despite lower yields "Gold came under renewed selling pressure overnight, falling more than 2.5%. Brent’s sharp rise amid renewed Middle East supply concerns added to inflation worries and expectations that the Fed may need to keep rates restrictive for longer. What was notable was that gold continued to weaken even as US Treasury yields fell sharply amid the global tech selloff."

"Neither lower yields nor heightened geopolitical uncertainty has been sufficient to support gold, suggesting that near-term sentiment remains fragile."

"We remained cautious in the near term, particularly as gold has struggled to respond positively to the recent decline in yields."

"An easing in oil prices and further decline in real yields could help gold stabilise, but we would want to see a better price response before turning more constructive in the near-term."

"Support at 4000, 3943 levels (recent low). Resistance at 4080, 4156 (21 DMA)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold (XAU/USD) attempts a recovery above the $4,000 mark on Friday after slipping to $3,986 during Asian trading hours, its lowest level since July. The rebound comes as dip buyers step in following Thursday's sharp sell-off, when the metal lost 2.81%.

And that is what happened yesterday…. at least if you were standing in the middle of the AI trade.

Gold (XAU/USD) is practically flat on the daily chart, just below $4,030 on Friday after bouncing up from 3-month lows in the $4,000 area. Precious metals are drawing some support from the sharp decline in US Treasury yields, but upside attempts remain limited, as Oil prices jumped to fresh highs, forcing global central banks to adopt more restrictive monetary policies.

The yield for the benchmark US 10-year note dropped 15 basis points on Thursday on its sharpest daily decline since 2023, as growing concerns about an AI bubble have triggered a rush for safety into US Government yields.

With this move, long-term Treasury yields head for a three-week decline, which eases pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed), providing some leeway to the Federal Reserve (Fed) to assess the economic impact of September's rate hike, and increasing the appeal of yieldless precious metals.

Oil prices, on the other hand, are likely to remain a strong headwind for any significant Gold recovery. Brent Oil has reached fresh five-month highs above $110 while the US benchmark WTI barrel escalated above the $100 level earlier on the day.

Technical Analysis: Bulls will find resistance at the $4,070 area

XAU/USD trades at $4,024.42, extending with price action contained within a bearish channel from the early September high. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, has reached heavily oversold levels on the 4-hour chart, which suggests that bears might be exhausted and that some bullish correction should be considered.

On the topside, bulls are likely to meet resistance at the previous support area of $4,070 ahead of Tuesday's and Wednesday's high, near $4,150, and the area between $4,200 and $4,220, which has capped rallies several times in October.

Below the $4,000 area, bears are likely to face strong support at the year-to-date lows between $3,960 and $3,941. Further down, the channel bottom lies now around $3,925.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Gold is testing $4,000 after slipping below its daily trend band. If that support breaks, $3,920 is the first downside target.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $54.02 per troy ounce, down 1.07% from the $54.61 it cost on Thursday.

Silver prices have decreased by 24.00% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 74.58 on Friday, up from 73.70 on Thursday.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Sell trade idea explained.