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Canadian bank strategists expect USD/CAD rallies to attract sellers, with support near 1.3720 ahead of a possible retreat towards 1.3500-1.3550. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate edged higher on Wednesday after two consecutive daily declines, as traders assessed fresh US restrictions on Canadian goods.

At the time of writing, USD/CAD was up 0.12% at 1.3795, recovering some of Tuesday’s 0.20% fall.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.37947 (+0.12%)

Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.870651 (+0.26%)

Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.606438 (+0.28%)

Foreign exchange strategists at Scotiabank expects the broader decline to resume, with improving Canadian Dollar fundamentals supporting its bearish view of the pair.

“USD support is 1.3715/35 ahead of the decline back to the 1.3500/50 region.”

That puts the bank’s first support area at 1.3715-1.3735, followed by a potential move towards 1.3500-1.3550.

Trade restrictions draw a muted response Washington’s latest measures will ban certain Canadian dairy products, motorcycles and most alcoholic beverages from September 29, following Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods.

Scotiabank reported little immediate currency reaction to the announcement, following a similarly restrained assessment of President Trump’s weekend comments about Canada’s exchange rate.

“If the White House does have a beef with the low CAD, some further clarity is required.”

The bank’s estimated fair value for USD/CAD has edged down to 1.3736, below the current market rate.

This is a model estimate of equilibrium rather than a dated exchange-rate target, but its direction supports Scotiabank’s assessment that underlying Canadian Dollar drivers are improving.

Image: USD to CAD exchange rate 3-month chart The Canadian bank argues that last week’s failed US Dollar recovery established firm resistance in the low-to-mid 1.39 area.

“Trend momentum is USD-bearish across short-, medium-, and long-term studies, meaning that moderate USD gains (through the mid-1.38s) are likely to draw selling interest.”

We think that makes the response to a rebound towards 1.3850 particularly useful in judging this prediction.

Renewed selling there would reinforce Scotiabank’s call, while a sustained recovery into the 1.39 area would challenge its expectation that the downtrend is resuming.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek say Gold and broader precious metals have held firm despite higher near-term Fed hike probabilities. They stress that upcoming US inflation data will be pivotal for Fed pricing and discretionary flows, while structural supports such as Dollar-debasement themes, central bank buying and ETF demand suggest any hawkish shock may delay rather than derail the next leg higher.

Fed pricing hinges on inflation print"Precious metals wait on inflation data."

"Precious metals have been able to maintain strength, even as the market grapples with the near-term increase in Fed hike probabilities."

"A stronger jobs report initially weighed on gold, but less hawkish Fedspeak and currency interventions then cooled the narrative, highlighting the market has an elevated sensitivity to incoming data and headlines."

"Inflation data is the next big catalyst, and an upside surprise would embolden Fed pricing and weigh on the yellow metal, while less worrisome inflation could ultimately be the first catalyst to see the next wave of discretionary positioning start to enter the market."

"With the precious metal landscape still broadly supported by the renewed dollar-debasement theme, elevated central bank buying and renewed ETF accumulation, a hawkish Fed may only postpone the timing of the next leg higher rather than catalyze material downside."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Looking at the retracement zones, resistance is $4,489.87 to $4,538.77. This zone stopped the rally at $4,510.93 on September 3. On the downside, the key support zone is $4,319.60 to $4,230.51. This area stopped the selling at $4,282.62 on September 2.

Moving average support is being provided by the 50-day at $4,262.18. Moving average resistance is the 200-day at $4,537.36.

The potential support cluster formed by the swing bottom at $4,282.62 and the 50-day moving average at $4,262.18 is the downside target. Counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this area, but if it fails, the next trigger point for a near-term acceleration to the downside is the 61.8% level at $4,230.51.

A move through $4,510.93 could create the upside momentum to challenge the resistance cluster formed by the 200-day moving average at $4,537.36 and the 61.8% level at $4,538.77. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

What to Watch The dollar is doing the short-term work for gold. The dollar is doing the short-term work for gold. The BOJ and the ECB are both tightening within the next week, which is why the dollar index is sitting at a two-week low instead of rallying on crude above $100. PPI Thursday and CPI Friday are the last prints before September 16. The inflation data decides whether yields take control back from the currency trade.

The near-term lean is to the downside with the main trend down and a secondary lower top already in place. The support cluster at $4,282.62 to $4,262.18 is the downside target. The bias shifts bullish on a move through $4,510.93, which would change the main trend and open the resistance cluster near the 200-day. Wednesday’s rally is counter-trend until the market proves otherwise.

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Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD is flat in North American trade after touching a one-week high, with fundamentals supported by firmer European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations on higher Oil prices. Markets fully price a 25 bp hike this Thursday and another in December. They anticipate a hawkish hike and see limited resistance until the 1.1680/1.1700 area, with support below 1.1580.

ECB pricing underpins tentative Euro recovery"The EUR is entering Wednesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the USD following an overnight push to a fresh one week high. Fundamentals remain supportive as ECB rate expectations firm in response to the latest rally in oil prices, reflecting the ECB’s greater sensitivity to energy price risks in the current environment."

"A 25bpt rate hike is fully expected at Thursday’s meeting, and another 25bpts has been priced in for December. We anticipate a hawkish hike tomorrow, as President Lagarde unveils the latest forecast and signals ongoing concern about upside risk."

"In terms of data, releases have been limited to second-tier French industrial production data delivering an unexpected contraction in July. There are no major top-tier releases scheduled ahead of next week’s ZEW sentiment figures."

"Neutral/bullish – the latest recovery in the EUR is tentative and negligible, but there nonetheless as spot tests marginal one week highs in the mid-1.16s. The RSI is in the upper 50 area and climbing, leaning toward further near term gains."

"The 200 day MA (1.1634) looks to have provided modest closing resistance over the past week or so, however we note the absence of any meaningful resistance ahead of the 1.1680/1.1700 area. Near-term support is expected below 1.1580."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Furthermore, we also have to keep in mind that there are several central banks in play and could be raising rates. We’ll just have to wait and see. There is a pushback on the side of the safety bid. There is some of that, and that does help gold.

Longer Term, I Am Bullish on Gold Longer term, I am bullish on gold, but I also recognize that right now we have the European Central Bank decision on Thursday, PPI on Thursday, CPI on Friday coming out of the United States, and the Federal Reserve on Wednesday of next week, with the Bank of Japan on Thursday.

So there’s a lot going on that could move the gold markets, and it does not surprise me that perhaps we may take a moment here and simply grind away. I look at this as a market that has a reasonably well-defined range between $4,500 on the top and $4,600 as your outer barrier, with $4,400 as your floor.

You can see that we have broken above $4,500 for a moment, but I think that’s a resistance zone at this point. Markets get a little ahead of themselves. People start to take profit with so much uncertainty. There is certainly an underlying bid to the gold market, but momentum is still hard to find.

Euro benefits from broad US Dollar weakness ahead of ECB rate decision

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Strengthens above 1.3550, upside bias intact while holding above 100-day SMAThe GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3550 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. UK Chancellor John Healey unveiled a series of measures designed to encourage economic growth and draw more private investment into the UK. This move provides some support to the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD).

UK Chancellor on Monday announced plans to give city regions greater powers to attract private investment as part of Prime Minister Andy Burnham's plan to devolve power away from central government. Healey also stressed his commitment to fiscal discipline and to curbing rising costs for business and the public, including a 25% reduction in regulatory costs by the next election due in 2029.  Read more...

British Pound holds steady near mid-1.3500s vs USD as traders eye UK GDP and US inflationThe GBP/USD pair trades with a positive bias near mid-1.3500s during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains confined within the previous day's broader range. Meanwhile, the downside seems limited as traders await the release of monthly UK GDP and US inflation figures before placing fresh directional bets.

The key focus will be on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The crucial data will be looked at for more cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path amid rising bets for a September rate hike and will influence the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics. This, in turn, should provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Read more...

Risk appetite remained subdued on Wednesday, with equities and bonds under pressure as another leg higher in oil prices added to concerns over the deteriorating situation in the Middle East. In foreign exchange markets, the dollar was modestly firmer after initially weakening against most major currencies.

The Euro (EUR) gives back its early gains and flattens at around 1.1625 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair falls back as the US Dollar recovers its early losses.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 98.82.

Financial markets expect the outlook of the US Dollar banks upon the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, which will be released on Friday.

US inflation seen contained even as headline picks up on energyAccording to TD Securities, the upcoming August CPI report should show that underlying price pressures remain contained, with the bank expecting that "underlying inflation stayed under control, with core likely rising 0.19% m/m (2.3% y/y)." Strategists there highlight that "the services segment should be the main driver, while core goods prices likely acted as a drag by posting a modest m/m drop." In contrast, they anticipate that "headline CPI will likely be a stronger 0.37% m/m (3.4% y/y) due to rising energy prices and a slight pickup in food inflation."

The inflation data is expected to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 60% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in the September policy meeting.

Meanwhile, the Euro is expected to trade broadly sideways ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy announcement on Thursday. According to market expectations, the ECB will hike policy rates by 25 basis points (bps), which underscores commentary on interest rate expectations as a key trigger for the Euro’s next move.

Strategists at Scotiabank said in a note that “focus this week centres on Thursday’s ECB, where policymakers are widely expected to deliver a 25bps hike while maintaining a relatively hawkish tone as they seek to lean against the risk of energy-led inflation and mitigate any potential for broadening inflationary pressures.”

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1626. The pair holds a modest bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1605.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 57 stays in neutral-positive territory, hinting that upside momentum is present but not overstretched after the recent push higher.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1605, where a daily close below would weaken the constructive tone and expose a deeper correction toward prior lows; below that, the psychological level of 1.1500 is the key support level. On the upside, the 1.1686-1.1710 range is the critical supply zone for the pair.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate One of the three key interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB), the main refinancing operations rate is the interest rate the ECB charges to banks for one-week long loans. It is announced by the European Central Bank at its eight scheduled annual meetings. If the ECB expects inflation to rise, it will increase its interest rates to bring it back down to its 2% target. This tends to be bullish for the Euro (EUR), since it attracts more foreign capital inflows. Likewise, if the ECB sees inflation falling it may cut the main refinancing operations rate to encourage banks to borrow and lend more, in the hope of driving economic growth. This tends to weaken the Euro as it reduces its attractiveness as a place for investors to park capital.

Read more.

Next release: Thu Sep 10, 2026 12:15

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 2.65%

Previous: 2.4%

Source: European Central Bank

Gold Spot/US Dollar (XAU/USD): Arc cycle analysis

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 1h chart, Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar is interacting with the 0.618 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion.

Market outlookThe 0.618 Arc continues to act as a resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc, indicating that the resistance remains intact.

If the Resistance Arc holds firm, a decline toward 4,366 becomes the primary scenario. Conversely, a sustained 1h close above 4,410 would invalidate the bearish scenario, opening the path toward the next Resistance Arc at the 0.786 Arc level.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $66.58 per troy ounce, up 1.23% from the $65.76 it cost on Tuesday.

Silver prices have decreased by 6.34% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 66.08 on Wednesday, down from 66.23 on Tuesday.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

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  USDJPY managed to resume the drop as traders anticipate a rate hike from the Bank of Japan next week. The market faces support around the 152.00-15 zone while resistance at 155.00-20 could lead to a trading zone here.

The Pound-Australian Dollar rate could edge higher if Chinese inflation disappoints and Australian sentiment stays weak, while rising gilt yields may cap Sterling. The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate traded in a narrow range on Tuesday as a decline in sentiment across the Australian economy has curbed AUD's recent bullish momentum.

At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.8763. Virtually unchanged from the start of Tuesday’s opening levels.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.875775 (-0.02%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.353466 (-0.09%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Australian Dollar (AUD) stalled on Tuesday, amid a deterioration in domestic consumer and business confidence.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 5.2% in September to 84.4, reversing almost all of the 6% improvement recorded in August, with the survey pointing to growing concerns over household finances.

Businesses were similarly downbeat. The latest NAB Business Survey showed confidence falling two points to -8 in August, while business conditions dropped five points to -1 – the first negative reading since the COVID pandemic.

This has robbed the 'Aussie' of some of its recent momentum, after being propelled to a multi-month high by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy speculation after AUD investors grew increasingly hawkish in pricing in further monetary tightening from the bank this year.

The Pound (GBP) was muted on Tuesday as a fresh rise in oil prices fuelled renewed concerns over inflation and pushed UK government bond yields higher.

Brent crude climbed towards $100 a barrel on Tuesday morning after attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure intensified fears over disruptions to global energy supplies, adding to the inflationary pressures already weighing on markets.

The jump in energy prices prompted a broader sell-off in government bonds, with 10-year gilt yields edging higher after already reaching multi-year highs during the recent bout of market turmoil.

This added to concerns over the UK's borrowing costs and the amount of fiscal headroom available to Chancellor John Healey ahead of his October Budget.

Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Recovery in Chinese Inflation to Strengthen the 'Aussie'? Looking ahead to the middle of the week, the next catalyst of movement for the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate is likely to be the publication of China's latest inflation figures.

The Australian dollar's status as a proxy for China could see the 'Aussie' supported if August's data shows prices began to accelerate again, after a protracted run of month-on-month disinflation.

Meanwhile, UK economic data remains in short supply through the middle of the week, which is likely to leave movement in the Pound to be driven by wider market trends.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Scotiabank finds little evidence the Canadian Dollar is misaligned, despite Trump’s complaint about a currency “imbalance”. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate edged lower to 1.3774 on Wednesday, extending two days of losses as rising oil prices supported the Loonie despite escalating trade tensions.

At the time of writing, USD/CAD was down 0.03%, following declines of 0.23% on Monday and 0.20% on Tuesday.

Image: USD to CAD rate chart over the last 48 hours Scotiabank’s valuation model puts the pair close to its estimated equilibrium of 1.3756, offering little support for President Trump’s suggestion that Canada’s currency is out of line.

“Nor is there any indication whatsoever that the CAD is significantly out of line with underlying fundamentals.”

The model incorporates short-term US-Canada interest-rate differentials, commodity prices, equities and the broader US Dollar.

Its estimate describes fair value under those conditions, rather than a dated exchange-rate target.

Trump’s wording leaves room for doubt Trump’s weekend post complained that Canada’s currency “Dollar imbalance with the US is unacceptable”, as the countries prepared another round of retaliatory trade measures.

Scotiabank said even its own desk had differing interpretations of the message.

The reference to currency was explicit, but “imbalance” sounded more like a complaint about trade.

“The post reads more as a grievance than a complaint about misalignment but it does elevate the CAD as a potential source of friction between Washington and Ottawa moving forward.”

The bank sees no obvious grounds for treating Canada as a currency manipulator, citing its trade and current-account position and history of allowing the currency to float.

The Bank of Canada explains that the Canadian Dollar has no fixed value against another currency or gold.

Oil prices have helped the Canadian Dollar withstand the trade headlines, with WTI’s surge beyond $90 lifting the price of a major Canadian export.

Scotiabank interprets Trump’s comment as “political signalling rather than a clear currency policy shift”, while warning that deliberately weakening the US Dollar could disrupt capital flows and complicate the Fed’s inflation fight.

We think any follow-up from the US Treasury deserves particular attention, especially if Washington begins making specific demands about the Canadian Dollar.

Scotiabank itself argues that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would be more likely to raise the issue if the administration were seriously targeting Canada’s exchange rate.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

USD/JPY fell to 153.50 on Wednesday, leaving the Japanese yen close to its strongest level in almost seven months. The currency is receiving additional support from comments by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which have made market participants increasingly cautious about betting against the yen.

Bessent said he clearly understood what to expect from the Bank of Japan, particularly regarding when Japanese authorities are prepared to respond to excessive exchange-rate movements. His remarks have reinforced traders’ concerns about further intervention in the currency market.

Expectations surrounding Japanese monetary policy are also supporting the yen. The Bank of Japan could raise interest rates as early as next week. At the same time, Sanae Takaichi’s administration has adopted a firmer stance on the currency, acknowledging the need to curb excessive yen weakness.

The yen is also benefiting from the unwinding of carry trades and growing expectations of capital repatriation to Japan. Meanwhile, sentiment among Japanese manufacturers improved for a second consecutive month in September, supported by resilient demand from the semiconductor and data-centre sectors.

USD/JPY technical analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market formed a consolidation range around 154.81. The range subsequently expanded downwards to 152.88 and upwards to 154.39.

An upside breakout from the current range could open the way for a recovery towards 154.88. Conversely, a downside breakout would increase the likelihood of a further correction towards 152.12.

The MACD indicator supports the bearish scenario. Its signal line remains below zero and is pointing firmly downwards, indicating continued downside momentum.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the market completed an upward move to 154.41 and is currently forming a downward move towards 152.12.

A break below 152.12 could extend the decline towards 149.30.

The Stochastic oscillator also supports the bearish outlook. Its signal line is below 50 and is falling sharply towards 20, suggesting that downward momentum may persist in the short term and push USD/JPY to new local lows.

ConclusionThe yen remains supported by a combination of monetary policy expectations, intervention risks, carry-trade unwinding and improving domestic economic sentiment. As long as USD/JPY remains under pressure below the 154.39–154.88 area, the technical picture continues to favour a move towards 152.12.

A confirmed break below this level could strengthen bearish momentum and expose the 149.30 area as the next downside target. A recovery above 154.39, however, would weaken the immediate bearish scenario and could trigger a rebound towards 154.88.

USD/JPY fell to 153.50 on Wednesday, leaving the Japanese yen close to its strongest level in almost seven months. The currency is receiving additional support from comments by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which have made market participants increasingly cautious about betting against the yen.

Bessent said he clearly understood what to expect from the Bank of Japan, particularly regarding when Japanese authorities are prepared to respond to excessive exchange-rate movements. His remarks have reinforced traders’ concerns about further intervention in the currency market.

Expectations surrounding Japanese monetary policy are also supporting the yen. The Bank of Japan could raise interest rates as early as next week. At the same time, Sanae Takaichi’s administration has adopted a firmer stance on the currency, acknowledging the need to curb excessive yen weakness.

The yen is also benefiting from the unwinding of carry trades and growing expectations of capital repatriation to Japan. Meanwhile, sentiment among Japanese manufacturers improved for a second consecutive month in September, supported by resilient demand from the semiconductor and data-centre sectors.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market formed a consolidation range around 154.81. The range subsequently expanded downwards to 152.88 and upwards to 154.39.

An upside breakout from the current range could open the way for a recovery towards 154.88. Conversely, a downside breakout would increase the likelihood of a further correction towards 152.12.

The MACD indicator supports the bearish scenario. Its signal line remains below zero and is pointing firmly downwards, indicating continued downside momentum.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the market completed an upward move to 154.41 and is currently forming a downward move towards 152.12.

A break below 152.12 could extend the decline towards 149.30.

The Stochastic oscillator also supports the bearish outlook. Its signal line is below 50 and is falling sharply towards 20, suggesting that downward momentum may persist in the short term and push USD/JPY to new local lows.

Conclusion
The yen remains supported by a combination of monetary policy expectations, intervention risks, carry-trade unwinding and improving domestic economic sentiment. As long as USD/JPY remains under pressure below the 154.39–154.88 area, the technical picture continues to favour a move towards 152.12.

A confirmed break below this level could strengthen bearish momentum and expose the 149.30 area as the next downside target. A recovery above 154.39, however, would weaken the immediate bearish scenario and could trigger a rebound towards 154.88.

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Gold is replicating the recovery move seen in Tuesday’s Asian trading, bouncing off one-week lows near $4,350 early Wednesday. However, buyers remain cautious amid widening Middle East conflict.   

Gold: Will the rebound last?Gold is attempting a tepid rebound, halting a three-day decline so far this Wednesday, as the US Dollar (USD) struggles near two-week lows amid resurgent demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY).

Continued bets surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) aggressive tightening cycle remain a tailwind for the local currency, while weighing on the USD/JPY pair and the Greenback.

However, the downside in the USD could be limited by the widening conflict in the Middle East, which keeps Oil prices elevated and inflation concerns alive. This, in turn, bolsters expectations for more than one Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike this year.

Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen launched strikes on several Saudi cities.

Meanwhile, the US Central Command said it destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers on Tuesday, which it called a response to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeting a US Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the previous two days

A separate IRGC statement said it attacked two US destroyers, state media reported.

Looking ahead, Gold remains exposed to two-way risks as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data looms, with a sell-the-bounce trading strategy likely, particularly after China’s inflation came in hotter-than-expected.

China's CPI rose 0.8% year-over-year (YoY) in August, accelerating from 0.5% in July. The Producer Price Index increased 3.8%, exceeding the forecast for a 3.6% gain and outpacing July’s 3.5%.

US CPI outlook sees core contained for now but risks skewed to the upsideAccording to TD Securities, this week’s CPI release should show that “underlying inflation stayed under control in August,” with the core index expected “to rise 0.19% m/m.” Strategists there anticipate that “the services segment should be the main driver of inflation, while core goods prices likely acted as a drag, posting a modest m/m drop.” On an annual basis, they “project that core CPI rose 2.3% on a y/y basis, down 10 bps vs July, while headline inflation likely stayed unchanged at 3.4% y/y.” However, they caution that “risks to our forecasts” are “skewed to the upside given that we're assuming a number of large price declines in tariff-exposed goods categories.”

Looking beyond the August print, TD Securities expects “core inflation to see some relief in Q3,” noting that “we expect the core segment to continue to evolve positively through October after cresting in May at 2.9% y/y.” They say the same pattern likely applies to headline CPI, which “likely saw its peak for the year at 4.2% in May,” though they stress that “its evolution will remain entirely dependent on the final resolution of the Middle East conflict.” Overall, TD Securities anticipates that “both series” will “resume y/ y momentum in Q4.”

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,379.08, holding in a neutral but slightly constructive stance as it sits above the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at roughly $4,261 and $4,343 respectively, while remaining capped beneath the 21-day SMA near $4,462 and the longer-term 200-day SMA around $4,537. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 suggests directionless momentum for now, hinting at consolidation rather than a clear trend extension until price resolves away from this mid-range band of moving averages.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 21-day SMA at about $4,462, with a break there exposing the more formidable barrier at the 200-day SMA near $4,537, where longer-term sellers could re-emerge. On the downside, immediate support is implied by the latest close around $4,379, followed by the 100-day SMA at roughly $4,343 and then the 50-day SMA near $4,261, and a decisive drop below this cluster would weaken the constructive tone and open the door to a deeper corrective phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 572.77 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 569.96 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,681.12 per tola from MYR 6,647.86 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

572.77

10 Grams

5,728.08

Tola

6,681.12

Troy Ounce

17,815.29

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 38,956.30 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 38,759.07 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to PKR 454,378.60 per tola from PKR 452,078.20 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PKR

1 Gram

38,956.30

10 Grams

389,563.00

Tola

454,378.60

Troy Ounce

1,211,686.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in Philippines on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 8,804.59 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,750.86 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to PHP 102,694.80 per tola from PHP 102,068.30 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PHP

1 Gram

8,804.59

10 Grams

88,045.73

Tola

102,694.80

Troy Ounce

273,850.50

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 529.25 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 525.86 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to SAR 6,173.29 per tola from SAR 6,133.51 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

529.25

10 Grams

5,292.69

Tola

6,173.29

Troy Ounce

16,461.63

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The big macro tests are still to come. A series of new data will be released this week, and Fed officials believe the CPI data will be key to the September setting of policy. Governor Christopher Waller believes he would support a decision to hold policy steady if inflation continues to move closer to the Fed’s target, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack maintains her position of supporting further tightening.

Precious metal prices are benefitting from a strong yen amid expectations that the Bank of Japan will begin to tighten to offset a weakening U.S. dollar.

For silver, the tightening of the physical market reinforces monetary policy sensitivity. The Silver Institute anticipates silver will continue to have a sixth straight year of market deficits in 2026, as global inventories start to fall since 2021, despite a slowing industrial demand.

Fundamental bias: Gold and Silver are both moderately bullish. The key risk in the near term is Friday’s U.S. CPI report.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Holds $4,347 as $4,422 Resistance Keeps Recovery Capped

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is higher against its major currency peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), on Wednesday, trading 0.16% up at around 0.7230 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European session.

Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.11%-0.11%-0.54%-0.08%-0.23%-0.12%-0.17%EUR0.11%0.01%-0.46%0.02%-0.12%-0.00%-0.05%GBP0.11%-0.01%-0.46%0.03%-0.11%-0.00%-0.05%JPY0.54%0.46%0.46%0.47%0.32%0.40%0.39%CAD0.08%-0.02%-0.03%-0.47%-0.15%-0.04%-0.08%AUD0.23%0.12%0.11%-0.32%0.15%0.11%0.08%NZD0.12%0.00%0.00%-0.40%0.04%-0.11%-0.03%CHF0.17%0.05%0.05%-0.39%0.08%-0.08%0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

The antipodean gains were on the back of remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser in an interview by the ABC on Tuesday, where she stressed bringing inflation down.

“People want inflation down. People are furious about inflation. I understand why,” Hauser said and added, “It’s unfair. It hits people on low incomes. It damages price signals. It makes the job of companies difficult. What they want us to do is our job and bring inflation down,” Financial Review reported.

Comments from RBA’s Hauser stressing the need to bring inflation down have increased central bank’s interest rate hike expectations.

Rabobank notes that the RBA has “just saw Hauser give a hawkish speech, which has markets thinking of hikes this month and in November.” The bank adds that this prospective tightening path is “very much what the US Treasury would like to see – plus a lot more action on non-housing parts of the economy,” underscoring how a more restrictive RBA stance is increasingly aligned with US policy preferences.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar is under pressure, with investors awaiting the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7229, extending its advance above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7158 and keeping a clear short-term bullish bias. The pair holds comfortably above this dynamic support, suggesting dips may be shallow for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69.5 hovers just below overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is strong but increasingly stretched.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 0.7158 is the first notable support, and a daily close below it would hint at a deeper corrective phase. On the upside, the pair is expected to extend its advance to near the four-year high at 0.7277.

RBA FAQs The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.

Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.

Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

The Euro (EUR) attempts to resume its uptrend against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday’s early European session despite the risk-off mood and the high Crude prices. EUR/USD is drawing support from USD weakness to hit 12-day highs just above 1.1640, as investors brace for Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting.

Euro rallies are likely to remain shallow, with Oil prices at their highest levels in the last three months as the situation in the Gulf deteriorates by the day. Tehran launched an attack on a US Navy warship and an airbase in Jordan on Tuesday, and the US military responded by targeting several Iranian tankers. Beyond that, Iran-backed Houthi militias attacked Oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, which risks leading the conflict into an all-out regional war.

Dollar debasement debate weighs on sentimentThe US Dollar, on the other hand, remains on its back foot despite the strong US Nonfarm Payrolls data released last week, with investors awaiting Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to consolidate hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike at next week's meeting.

Analysts at Rabobank highlight that the “USD’s dithery tone in recent session adds weight to the view that there has been a change in sentiment in the FX market.” They argue that the “Dollar debasement debate which was triggered by US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s bond intervention announcement on August 19 appears to have undermined confidence in the greenback,” helping to explain why the currency has struggled to capitalise on otherwise supportive rate expectations.

The calendar is thin on Wednesday, with ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank in Berlin, the only event worth mentioning. Lagarde, however, will not speak about monetary policy as the central bank kicks off its two-day meeting, which is widely expected to end with a quarter-point hike to 2.5% in the central bank's benchmark interest rate.

ECB FAQs The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.