Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $63.87 per troy ounce, down 0.35% from the $64.09 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 10.15% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.56 on Wednesday, broadly unchanged from 67.54 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Euro-Dollar rate has slipped to 1.1574, but UBS sees recovery towards 1.18–1.20 as limited policy divergence contains FX volatility. The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has fallen back to 1.1574 after its late-August recovery ran out of momentum above 1.17.
The reversal has left the live EUR/USD rate near the bottom of its latest trading range, with the pair down around 0.15% on Wednesday morning.
At current levels, the bottom of UBS’s 1.18–1.20 forecast range would represent an advance of roughly 2%, while the upper boundary implies potential gains approaching 3.7%.
Image: EUR/USD 48-hour chart The 48-hour chart captures the change in tone: EUR/USD briefly touched 1.1624 before sliding towards 1.1573, just above the period low of 1.1568.
Neutral Euro View, Higher EUR/USD Range UBS stated: “We remain Neutral on the EUR and expect EURUSD to move back between 1.18-1.20, while GBP and NOK remain Attractive given their yield appeal.”
UBS is not predicting a powerful, one-way Euro rally, but it does expect the recent Dollar rebound to fade enough for EUR/USD to revisit higher levels.
The bank’s view rests partly on the absence of a large and persistent interest-rate gap between the major central banks.
“We believe limited monetary policy divergence should keep FX volatility contained, supportive of selective exposure to pro-growth, carry currencies.”
This leaves UBS broadly aligned with Rabobank’s 1.18 EUR/USD forecast, although the UBS range allows for a more substantial move towards 1.20.
European Growth Offers Some Support The European growth picture is another part of the argument.
UBS said: “Eurozone and UK growth continue to outperform expectations, as higher borrowing costs have had limited impact on activity and higher energy prices have yet to materially weigh on growth (we forecast Eurozone GDP growth of +0.8% in 2026, +1.2% in 2027, and UK: +1.1% in 2026 and 2027).”
It also expects another European Central Bank rate increase: “Thus, we expect the ECB to hike once more in September, to 2.5% before pausing, and the BoE to hold policy rates at 3.75% through year-end 2026.”
Image: EUR to USD exchange rate 3-month chart The three-month chart offers a less bearish picture than the latest sell-off alone, with EUR/USD still above its rising 50-day moving average despite retreating from August’s 1.1711 high.
The immediate tests will come from US employment data and the September ECB decision.
Further Dollar strength could put 1.15 back in play first, but a cooling in US yields would bring UBS’s 1.18 recovery target into clearer view.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Euro (EUR) is trading lower against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, weighed by risk aversion amid growing tensions in the Middle East, while rising bets of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes support speculative demand for the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair trades at 1.1580, after being rejected at the 1.1620 area on Tuesday.
Geopolitical tensions are hurting investors' appetite for risk as reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran escalate, casting further doubt about a negotiated end of the war and pushing Crude Prices higher. Brent Oil trades at $94.00, nearly 7% up on the week, posing a significant challenge for the Eurozone’s economies as the increasing energy costs might dampen an already frail growth.
The US military launched a wave of strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets across Iran, which were responded to with attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq, amid Tehran's accusations that the US bombings killed 18 civilians celebrating a wedding on Tuesday.
US data disappoints but fails to curb Fed tightening hopesIn the US, macroeconomic data disappointed on Tuesday. The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slowed down beyond expectations in August, with the prices paid sub-index flat and the employment gauge retreating from July’s high.
Beyond that, US JOLTS Job Openings increased below expectations in July. These figures, however, failed to dent hopes that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by a quarter percentage point at its September meeting. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 68% chance of a rate hike later this month, nearly twice last week’s 36% rating.
In the Eurozone, data from Spain revealed that unemployment increased well beyond expectations in August and that the Italian Producer Prices Index accelerated in July. Also on Wednesday, the European Central Bank (ECB) Committee member, Joachim Nagel, affirmed that “markets see over 95% chance of a September rate hike”, yet with no visible impact on the Euro as that outcome has already been priced in.
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Gold has hit a wall this week, sliding to two-week lows near $4,320 and posting an 8.7% drop from last week’s three-month highs near $4,700. The catalyst is unmistakable: Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, warning the Fed still has “work to do” without clearer evidence inflation is returning to target, sent September hike odds surging from roughly 36% before his speech to over 66% today. Rising Treasury yields and renewed Middle East tensions, following fresh US strikes and Iranian retaliation against the UAE and Jordan, have only added to the pressure.
Despite this sharp pullback, the broader picture remains genuinely constructive: gold still gained around 10% in August alone after the US Treasury’s surprise move to double its long-dated bond buyback programme reignited fears over fiscal credibility, the so-called debasement trade that has underpinned much of this year’s rally.
All eyes now turn to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, the week’s decisive catalyst. A weak print could quickly reverse this hawkish repricing and revive gold’s momentum, while a strong one would likely deepen the current correction heading into the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting.
Technical Analysis of XAU/USD
As the XAU/USD chart shows, gold has pulled back sharply from the 4,698.73 highs and is now trading between two key confluences: above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near 4,265, which aligns with the ascending trendline off the late-July lows, and below the 0.5 retracement near 4,348, which coincides with the 200-period EMA at 4,367.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the 0.618-trendline confluence, the broader recovery structure remains intact. A push back above the 0.5 retracement and the 200-period EMA would open the path towards reclaiming the descending trendline, with scope to challenge the 0.382 level near 4,431.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a decisive break below the 0.618 retracement and the ascending trendline would signal that the correction has real legs, exposing the 0.786 level near 4,147, with a deeper slide risking a full retest of the 3,997 low that anchored the entire August rally.
With price squeezed between a defended trendline-Fibonacci confluence below and a stubborn EMA-Fibonacci resistance above, gold’s next move looks set to determine whether Friday’s jobs report tips the balance towards renewed strength, or confirms this correction has further to run.
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TL;DR: NZD/JPY fell over 1% despite the RBNZ’s second consecutive hike, as an Iran-driven oil shock reduced carry appetite, increasingly hawkish BoJ rhetoric strengthened the Yen, and the RBNZ’s own gradual guidance disappointed markets pricing a faster path.
Four Forces Are Hitting NZD/JPY at Once NZD/JPY fell more than -1% on Wednesday, even after the RBNZ delivered a second consecutive 25bp rate hike to 2.75%. At first glance, that looks contradictory — higher New Zealand rates should normally support NZD. But the current decline is being driven by several forces pointing in the same direction: an Iran-driven oil shock has weakened risk appetite and encouraged carry reduction; BoJ rhetoric is reinforcing expectations for faster Japanese tightening; US pressure is adding urgency to the Yen story; and the RBNZ’s own guidance disappointed markets looking for a more aggressive hiking path.
That distinction matters for durability. Geopolitical risk and equity weakness can reverse quickly if oil retreats or US-Iran tensions ease. But BoJ-RBNZ policy divergence could persist even after risk sentiment stabilizes. In other words, oil triggered the broad move, while central-bank divergence amplified it.
Iran and Oil Trigger the Risk-Off Layer Fresh Middle East escalation pushed Brent as high as around $97 earlier Wednesday, reviving concern over the Strait of Hormuz, inflation, and another round of US-Iran retaliation. Asian equities reflected the deterioration in risk appetite, with the Nikkei down around -2.5% and the KOSPI falling almost -4%.
For NZD/JPY, this matters through carry rather than a simple safe-haven mechanism. NZD is highly sensitive to global risk appetite, while the Yen has historically served as a funding currency for positions in higher-yielding assets. When volatility rises and investors reduce leverage, those trades are unwound by selling higher-beta currencies and buying back the Yen.
That gives Middle East escalation a clear transmission channel into NZD/JPY. But it’s only the first layer. Wednesday’s selloff is larger because the Yen itself is also receiving increasingly hawkish policy support.
The BoJ Debate Is Moving Beyond September Markets are already close to fully pricing a BoJ hike at the September 17–18 meeting, so simply expecting a move from 1.00% to 1.25% is no longer especially new. The more important question is whether September marks the start of a faster tightening cadence.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has added pressure from Washington. NHK reported that Bessent told Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda at the G20 meeting that Japan’s “next step should be to raise interest rates.” Nomura’s Mari Iwashita highlighted the credibility of that signal, saying: “Whenever Bessent made comments on Japanese monetary policy, the BOJ followed through with rate hikes.”
BoJ board member Hajime Takata then sharpened that message on Wednesday in Sapporo. He described “2026 [as] a regime change” and argued policy should become “nimble and data-dependent,” rather than being “bound by particular intervals or ranges anticipated in the markets.” Takata was already the sole dissenter in July, proposing an immediate hike from 1.00% to 1.25%.
That makes the current Yen story less about one September move and more about the possibility that the BoJ abandons its twice-yearly tightening rhythm. If markets begin pricing another hike substantially sooner than previously expected, Yen-funded carry becomes structurally less attractive.
RBNZ Delivered the Hike but Not the Hawkish Path The New Zealand side produced the opposite surprise. The RBNZ raised the OCR from 2.50% to 2.75% by consensus, but NZD sold off sharply because markets were trading the future path rather than Wednesday’s decision itself. The RBNZ characterized tightening as gradual and stressed that policy isn’t on a preset course.
Its quarterly-average OCR projections rise only gradually from 2.8% in December 2026 to 3.0% in March 2027, 3.1% in June and September, and 3.2% by December 2027. Governor Anna Breman also emphasized the need to assess how rate increases already delivered are transmitting through the economy before deciding the next step.
Inflation risks aren’t viewed uniformly either. Hayley Gourley, Karen Silk, Prasanna Gai, and Breman saw risks tilted to the upside, while Paul Conway and Carl Hansen judged them balanced. That 4–2 split matters because it shows the Committee agrees on the current hike but not on the need for an aggressively hawkish future path.
So the RBNZ delivered hawkish action but a dovish reaction. Rates rose, but the policy message didn’t validate expectations for rapid tightening.
BoJ and RBNZ Are Moving in Opposite Directions at the Margin This is what makes NZD/JPY particularly useful. The BoJ is telling markets not to assume rate hikes will remain six months apart. The RBNZ is telling markets not to assume further hikes will come quickly.
That doesn’t mean the RBNZ is turning dovish outright — it’s still tightening and sees inflation risks. But relative monetary-policy surprise is what matters for FX. Japan is challenging expectations for gradualism just as New Zealand is reinforcing them.
The pair therefore captures more than generic risk aversion. It combines:
Higher geopolitical risk → lower carry appetite. Faster BoJ normalization risk → stronger Yen. Slower-than-hoped RBNZ tightening → weaker NZD. That three-way alignment explains why NZD/JPY is moving more aggressively than either central-bank headline might imply in isolation.
ActionForex’s Technical View on NZD/JPY: Break of the 55-Day EMA Shifts Focus to 91.02 The technical picture has deteriorated sharply. NZD/JPY’s fall through the 55-day EMA around 93.78 confirms the rebound from 91.64 completed at 95.18. The decline from 95.18 is now viewed as another falling leg within the broader consolidation from 95.41.
The near-term bias stays lower while 94.21 minor resistance holds, with focus turning to 91.02 support. Strong support could emerge around that zone and trigger a rebound.
However, downside risk becomes more serious if carry unwind intensifies alongside further equity weakness and higher oil. A break of 91.02 would expose 89.44, the 38.2% retracement of the larger rise from 79.79 to 95.41.
One caution is that the 4H RSI has already fallen close to 20, leaving the pair deeply oversold in the short term. A rebound would therefore not be surprising. But the technical damage would remain intact unless NZD/JPY can recover above 94.21 and, more importantly, regain the lost 55-day EMA.
What Determines Whether the Selloff Lasts? There are two separate questions. The first is whether the geopolitical catalyst persists. Brent’s move toward $102 is key — if oil continues higher and Asian equities remain under pressure, carry reduction can extend and accelerate downside in NZD/JPY. If US-Iran tensions ease and Brent retreats, that part of Wednesday’s move could reverse quickly.
The second is whether policy divergence survives beyond the current risk shock. The BoJ’s Sept. 17–18 decision and guidance will test whether Takata’s call for more nimble tightening is gaining broader support. In New Zealand, upcoming data will determine whether the RBNZ stays in wait-and-assess mode or shifts toward a faster path. Friday’s US payrolls also matter indirectly through global yields and risk appetite.
For now, NZD/JPY isn’t falling because of one headline. Iran escalation triggered carry reduction, the BoJ’s increasingly hawkish message strengthened the Yen side, and the RBNZ’s gradual guidance weakened the Kiwi side. That combination makes the current decline more than a simple geopolitical trade.
Key Takeaways NZD/JPY fell over 1% despite the RBNZ’s second straight hike, because markets traded the future path (gradual, disappointing) rather than the decision itself. Bessent’s public pressure on the BoJ and Takata’s “2026 regime change” comments suggest Japan may abandon its twice-yearly tightening rhythm for something faster. The RBNZ’s 4–2 committee split on inflation risk and quarterly-average OCR path (only reaching 3.2% by December 2027) confirm hawkish action but dovish forward guidance. Iran-driven oil moving toward $102 is the reversible layer of this selloff; BoJ-RBNZ policy divergence is the layer that could persist even if geopolitical risk eases. NZD/JPY has broken its 55-day EMA, opening a path toward 91.02 and then 89.44, though a 4H RSI near 20 leaves the pair deeply oversold and due for a possible bounce.
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ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
USD/CAD extends its gains for the second consecutive day. trading around 1.3940 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is positioned above the descending channel top, signalling a bullish reversal.
The USD/CAD is consolidating in a neutral near-term bias as it holds above the short-term nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains capped by the 50-day EMA. This split structure suggests the pair is stabilizing after recent weakness, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 51 and hinting at balanced momentum rather than a clear directional impulse.
The USD/CAD pair may test the immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA of 1.3949. A break above the medium-term price average would strengthen the bullish bias and support the pair to explore the region around the nearly 17-month high of 1.4248, which was recorded on June 24, 2026.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3882. A pullback toward the descending channel could revive the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair to test the descending channel bottom around 1.3670. A break below the channel would open the doors for the pair to navigate the region around 1.3481, the lowest since October 2024.
Barr flags risk of renewed hikes as inflation stays too highBarr’s latest remarks register slightly more hawkish than the established baseline, with a 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score versus a 6.8/10 historical average, as the emphasis on “inflation remains too high” and the risk of further tightening dominates the tone. The conditional stance—favoring steady rates only if there is confidence inflation is moderating, but warning that a lack of progress would warrant an interest rate hike—keeps a clear tightening bias in play even as Barr acknowledges a stable labor market and “solid” growth supported by artificial intelligence investment. Overall, the message reinforces upside risks to rates and supports the Dollar on balance, especially if incoming data fail to confirm disinflation.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.42 points to 128.86, signaling a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness despite remaining firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that while the broader Fed tone captured by the FXS Fed Sentiment Index has eased slightly, it still resides in clearly hawkish territory, consistent with Barr’s conditional tightening bias reflected in the FXS Speechtracker score.
USD/CAD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.16%0.11%-0.21%0.30%0.24%1.42%0.38%EUR-0.16%-0.07%-0.35%0.16%0.08%1.23%0.22%GBP-0.11%0.07%-0.28%0.22%0.13%1.27%0.28%JPY0.21%0.35%0.28%0.49%0.43%1.58%0.57%CAD-0.30%-0.16%-0.22%-0.49%-0.06%1.09%0.08%AUD-0.24%-0.08%-0.13%-0.43%0.06%1.15%0.16%NZD-1.42%-1.23%-1.27%-1.58%-1.09%-1.15%-0.99%CHF-0.38%-0.22%-0.28%-0.57%-0.08%-0.16%0.99% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): Arc cycle analysis
Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 30m chart, U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen is interacting with the 0.236 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion.
Metric
Reading
Market Bias
Neutral-Bearish
Preferred Scenario
Two-Way Navigation Within the Current Arc Range
Target Arc
0.382 Arc
Potential Interim Move
A move toward the upper Arc may occur before bearish continuation.
Current Arc Level
In Transit Between Arcs (0.236 Arc to 0.382 Arc)
Cycle Status
Mid-Cycle Migration Phase
Market outlookThe 0.236 Arc continues to act as a resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc, indicating that the resistance remains intact.
If the Resistance Arc holds firm, a decline toward 0.382 Arc becomes the primary scenario. Conversely, a sustained 30m close above 159.80 would invalidate the bearish scenario, opening the path toward the upper Resistance Arc.
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Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, Euro / U.S. Dollar is trading between the 0.618 Arc and 0.786 Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price is oscillating between these boundaries, progressing through a mid-cycle consolidation phase toward the lower Arc level.
Metric
Reading
Market Bias
Neutral-Bearish
Preferred Scenario
Two-Way Navigation Within the Current Arc Range
Target Arc
0.786 Arc
Potential Counter-Move
A counter-move toward the upper Arc may occur before bearish continuation.
Current Arc Level
In Transit Between Arcs (0.618 Arc to 0.786 Arc)
Cycle Status
Mid-Cycle Migration Phase
Market outlookPrice is actively trading between the 0.618 Arc and the 0.786 Arc, indicating that the market is navigating through the current Arc Cycle toward the lower Arc boundary. While price may experience a pullback toward the 0.618 Arc, the broader cycle structure remains oriented toward a test of the 0.786 Target Arc.
The USD/CAD is currently in a cautious bullish move ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest rates decision on 2 September 2026. Current setup Bias: cautiously bullish USD/CAD.
USD/CAD is currently trading with a cautiously bullish sentiment ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. The pair’s latest quoted price is around 1.3931. The cautious bullish bias stems from defensive positioning into the US dollar due to renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions and Tuesday’s rise in US Treasury yields. US bond yields are rising amid growing expectations of a September Fed rate hike, following the Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole comments.
Canada is a major oil exporter, and the commodity-linked Canadian dollar is receiving a boost from the sharp rise in oil prices that trails the geopolitical standoff. However, this has proved insufficient in offsetting the greenback’s broad strength.
USD/CAD: Macro Drivers 1) Fed expectations Bets for a September Fed rate hike have risen sharply and are approaching 70%. The Fedwatch CME tool currently shows a 67.9% probability of rates going up to 3.75%-4.00%. The rise in US Treasury yields has strengthened the dollar’s interest-rate advantage over the Bank of Canada. The yield advantage could widen if the BoC holds rates amid hawkish Fed expectations.
2) Higher oil prices support the CAD Brent crude has climbed above $95 amid the renewed US-Iran geopolitical conflict. The Canadian economy benefits from this environment whenever crude prices soar, boosting the CAD. This factor currently constrains any USD/CAD upside moves.
3) Bank of Canada Decision Market consensus is that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged. Current trade tensions with the US increase uncertainty about the Canadian economy. This is likely the overriding driver encouraging BoC policymakers to remain cautious.
Price Catalysts that Matter This Week The key catalysts for the week are:
1. Bank of Canada decision: The BoC is expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 2.25%. Watch out for the tone of the statement. However, leaving rates at this level maintains a yield differential of at least 150 bps between the Fed and BoC.
2.US jobs data: A stellar Non-Farm Payrolls report doubles down on the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and keeps US bond yields elevated and the US Dollar supported.
3. Fed expectations: As long as US bond yields remain elevated and the odds for a September Fed rate hike keep rising, hawkish Fed expectations will continue to be a primary catalyst of price action on the USD/CAD.
4. Oil prices: The CAD is expected to benefit from oil prices better than its southern neighbour. The question is whether this benefit offsets the USD’s defensive demand from geopolitically-driven safe-haven plays, or the hawkish Fed expectations which keep the greenback on bid.
USD/CAD: Weekly Forecast Scenarios Base case: The base case scenario sees the pair maintaining its cautiously bullish move. This keeps the pair in a modest uptrend, supported above the 1.3800 psychological pivot.
Bull case: A strong US jobs report on Friday + hawkish Fed expectations → allows USD/CAD to break above 1.3920, with targets set initially at the 1.4000 psychological barrier.
Bear case: oil extends its rally (CAD supportive) + BoC hawkish statement (even if rates stay unchanged) + disappointing US jobs data → USD/CAD falls back toward 1.3800.
USD/CAD Technical Outlook The current bullish move will be sustained if the ongoing breakout above the 1.3919 resistance completes. This will set bulls on the path toward the 1.4013 resistance (19 July low). Above this barrier, the 27th July high at 1.4129 forms the next upside target.
Fig 1: USD/CAD (4-hr chart) showing key price levels (snapshot: 2 September 2026) On the flip side, the 28 May low at 1.3774 forms the next downside target if the breakout move above 1.3919 fails. The 17 August/1 September lows at 1.3850 form the intermediate pivot which must be degraded to expose 1.3774.
Bottom line The immediate bias for the pair remains cautiously bullish. This reflects US monetary-policy expectations and safe-haven demand for the greenback from the geopolitical escalation outweighing whatever support the CAD gets from higher oil prices.
USD/JPY volatility has returned to the spotlight after a sharp yen move late in the Asian session initially raised questions over whether Japanese authorities had stepped back into the market.
The move followed comments from Bank of Japan policymaker Hajime Takata, who argued for a more nimble approach to adjusting interest rates as policymakers respond to inflation. That potentially increases the importance of each BOJ meeting and puts the path for Japanese rates firmly back into focus.
USD/JPY Faces BOJ and US Data Risk The latest move comes at an important point for USD/JPY. Volatility has increased, trading volume has picked up and price is approaching an area where the reaction could provide useful clues about the next directional move.
But traders also have a significant US data hurdle ahead. ISM services and nonfarm payrolls could materially shift expectations for the Federal Reserve and therefore the US-Japan rate differential that remains central to USD/JPY.
In the video, I look at the latest price action, the levels that could matter from here and whether the sudden increase in yen volatility should be treated as the start of something larger or simply another short-term move.
I also examine USD/JPY behaviour around previous NFP reports and what futures positioning tells us about speculative exposure to the Japanese yen.
Watch the video for the full USD/JPY analysis, NFP volatility study and yen positioning outlook.
View related analysis:
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USD/JPY breaks its August uptrend after a bearish reversal
BOJ member Takata flags consecutive hikes, echoing Bessent
JGBs bear flatten as front-end yields surge
US jobs data may decide whether the move sticks
USD/JPY has printed a bearish reversal candle on the four-hourly timeframe, followed by a break of the uptrend in place since August 20, with the move backed by a clear fundamental catalyst as BOJ officials continue to portray a far more hawkish outlook than what was seen earlier in the year.
BOJ Hawk Opens Door to Consecutive Hikes
Speaking in Sapporo earlier in the session, BOJ board member Takata suggested the pace of rate hikes should be assessed at every meeting, rather than assuming tightening will continue at the roughly twice-yearly pace seen so far. He also openly raised the possibility of consecutive hikes.
Such hawkish talk from Takata is hardly surprising given he has consistently dissented in favour of higher rates and has been the most hawkish member of the Board. What is more interesting is his willingness to openly discuss accelerating the pace of tightening, language that closely mirrors comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent over the weekend.
Speaking ahead of the G20 finance ministers meeting, Bessent expressed confidence that BOJ Governor Ueda would “do the right thing” on monetary policy and also openly entertained the prospect of the BOJ moving more aggressively with policy normalisation.
Coming so soon after his remarks, Takata’s comments will do nothing to diminish the view that the US Treasury Secretary is exerting strong influence over the direction of Japanese policy. That perception already has plenty of fuel after the coordinated FX intervention in late July, and the overlap in language around a faster pace of tightening will only bolster it.
Ueda Flags FX as an Upside Price Risk
Adding fuel to the fire, Ueda, speaking at the conclusion of the G20 finance ministers meeting in the United States earlier Wednesday, struck a relatively hawkish tone by his usual standards. While he didn’t commit to a September hike, he was clear the bank is focusing more on upside inflation risks and will take those risks into account when deliberating policy.
He also made explicit comments on the impact of the weaker yen, saying the BOJ is carefully watching FX moves as one risk factor to the price outlook and is scrutinising yen moves among the factors contributing to upside price risks.
That makes it clear the he is acknowledging the inflation risk posed by persistent yen weakness, especially when higher energy prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East are already adding to imported price pressures.
JGB Curve Bear Flattens Sharply
Source: LSEG, FOREX.com
While it's far too early to tell whether they’ll have any lasting success, for once bond traders are paying attention to what’s being said. There has been a noticeable bear flattening of the JGB curve, with two-year yields up 6.2bp and five-year yields 5.5bp, while the move becomes progressively smaller further out. Ten-year yields are up only 2.5bp, while 30-year yields are actually down around 1.3bp.
At current levels, the 2s30s curve has flattened by roughly 7.5bp. That is a seriously rare move, sitting around the bottom 1% of daily changes seen since 2007. The rise in two-year yields is even more extreme, around the 99.8th percentile over the same period. The obvious caveat is that the session is nowhere near finished, so these numbers can still move around a lot before the close.
Even so, this is much closer to the kind of outcome Bessent and his Japanese counterpart Satsuki Katayama are trying to achieve: a stronger yen, less pressure on the long end of the JGB curve and, by extension, less additional pressure on longer-dated US Treasuries. At the same time, it points to a market that may be starting to believe the BOJ is prepared to act on inflation by lifting real policy rates out of negative territory.
What makes the reaction to these comments unusual relative to the prevailing status quo is that it has been driven by the Japanese side of the equation rather than the US interest rate outlook, which has been the dominant factor in recent months.
USD/JPY Breaks Trend Ahead of Jobs Data
Source: TradingView
While the latest hawkish remarks have had the effect of reversing earlier weakness in USD/JPY, whether the move sticks will likely come down to the incoming flow of US data, starting with ADP private-sector employment later today before far chunkier releases arrive over the coming days, headlined by Friday’s August non-farm payrolls report.
As detailed in our week ahead note, the unemployment rate may prove more important than the payrolls figure itself, especially with the recent decline in labour force participation on track to become record-setting should we see another unchanged or lower reading for August.
Looking at USD/JPY on the four-hourly chart, you can see the key reversal candle after the pair failed to sustain an early-session push higher, eventually culminating in a break of the August 20 uptrend. The move has since stalled around 159.50, a level that has acted as both support and resistance over the past week and is now the immediate focal point beneath where the pair trades.
The message from the oscillators is one of short-term shifting momentum, with RSI (14) flipping from near overbought territory to beneath the neutral 50 level, while MACD has staged a bearish crossover but remains in positive territory. Upside momentum that had been building has abruptly declined, with directional risk now arguably starting to skew to the downside into the European session. Beneath 159.50, the levels to watch are 159.00, where the pair was bid for a period last week, followed by the area between 158.00 and 157.96, where price has done a lot of work either side of since late July.
Overhead, 160.40 was the session high hit before the latest reversal, while 160.73 is the more important technical level above, marking the multi-decade high set in April this year, which has since flipped to act as both support and resistance.
MUFG's 94.00 USD/INR target is close, but oil near $96 and higher Treasury yields threaten further Indian Rupee gains. The US Dollar to Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate slipped to 94.9523 early on Wednesday, placing MUFG's 94.00 third-quarter forecast within roughly 1% of spot.
The pair has dropped from 95.6044 at Friday's close and touched 94.7304 in early September.
When we last examined MUFG's call, USD/INR was trading near 95.75.
Spot has since moved much closer to the target, although the external backdrop has become less friendly for the Rupee.
MUFG said: “We are currently forecasting USD/INR to move towards 94.00 over the next three to six months, before rebounding towards 96.00 next year as structural portfolio outflows, corporate repatriation and import demand reassert themselves.”
Its quarterly table puts USD/INR at 94.00 in Q3 2026, 94.50 in Q4, 95.50 in Q1 2027 and 96.50 by Q2 2027.
That path points to further near-term Rupee gains, followed by a gradual reversal next year.
Image: USD/INR performance chart over 2026 - year-to-date graph The year-to-date chart shows USD/INR below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages after repeatedly failing to hold above 96, although the pair is still 5.53% higher in 2026.
RBI support has brought 94 closer MUFG attributed the Rupee's firmer footing to fading Dollar momentum and RBI foreign-currency mobilisation measures.
Foreign investors also bought around $470 million of Indian equities in the week ending 28 August, following roughly $500 million of inflows the previous week.
The bank added: “Existing foreign-currency inflows have enlarged India’s external buffer and curtailed the risk of sharp INR depreciation, but the removal of incremental liquidity support, accelerating credit growth and the lagged inflationary effects of earlier oil-price increases point towards higher INR rates.”
India's economy subsequently expanded by a stronger-than-expected 7.8% in the April-June quarter, reinforcing the case for tighter domestic policy.
MUFG said: “We continue to expect 50bp of RBI tightening beginning in December, with the central bank focused on limiting excessive FX volatility rather than engineering sustained rupee appreciation.”
Oil and US yields threaten the Rupee rally There is a catch, though.
Since MUFG published its forecast, Brent crude has climbed to $95.68 a barrel as renewed US-Iran strikes revived supply concerns.
That raises India's import bill and inflation risk, while higher US yields make emerging-market assets less attractive.
The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.79% on Tuesday, up from 4.73% on Friday.
MUFG's 94.00 target has plainly come into view, but a smooth decline is no longer assured.
A break below September's 94.7304 low would strengthen the case for another push towards 94, while oil, US yields and Friday's employment report could quickly put 95.50 back in play.
Westpac analysts expect USD/JPY to test 162 in September before retreating to 154 by end-2027 and 146 by the end of 2028. The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate slipped to 159.6004 on Wednesday, leaving Westpac's September forecast target of 162 around 1.5% above spot.
USD/JPY had climbed as high as 160.3872 during the previous 48 hours before reversing sharply, while the daily decline reached 0.37%.
Image: USD/JPY 48h chart The chart above shows the pair giving back its advance through 160.30 and finishing near the bottom of its 159.4938-160.3872 range.
Westpac's September call is effectively for one more test higher rather than an unprecedented breakout.
The pair traded as high as 163.9798 in July, so 162 has already proved reachable this summer.
What follows in Westpac's forecast curve is far more interesting.
The bank sees USD/JPY easing to 160 in December and remaining there in March 2027, before falling to 158 in June, 156 in September and 154 at the end of next year.
The decline then continues at a remarkably steady pace: 152 in March 2028, 150 in June, 148 in September and 146 in December.
From the forecast peak of 162 to the final 146 target, that would be a 9.9% fall in USD/JPY and an appreciation of almost 11% for the Yen against the Dollar.
The Yen recovery is not built on aggressive Fed cuts Westpac's accompanying interest-rate forecasts make the currency path more striking.
The bank keeps the Federal Funds rate at 3.625% throughout the forecast period, rather than relying on a sizeable US easing cycle to pull USD/JPY lower.
It also expects the US 10-year Treasury yield to ease only modestly, from 4.65% in September to 4.55% in the first half of 2027.
The yield then rises gradually to 4.85% by December 2028, precisely when USD/JPY reaches 146.
In other words, Westpac is forecasting a major Yen recovery without a lasting collapse in US yields.
The published figures do not include a separate Japanese interest-rate path or written explanation for the move, so it would be wrong to assign the decline to one specific catalyst.
Still, the curve fits a market increasingly focused on whether Japanese policy can take over from direct currency support.
As we noted in our recent Yen analysis, intervention can deliver an abrupt move but has struggled to overcome the interest-rate gap for long.
Westpac's numbers instead describe a slow adjustment lasting more than two years.
These are dated forecast points rather than promised trading stops, but the message is unusually clear: 162 may come first, while the bigger move is eventually lower.
Friday's Japanese household-spending figures and US employment report provide the next test, with Westpac forecasting a 70,000 rise in payrolls against a market estimate of 55,000.
The Euro (EUR) posts moderate losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, as the previous two days' recovery has been capped again at a key resistance area between 0.8580 and 0.8585, which holds the top of an ascending triangle pattern.
Macroeconomic data is scarce in both the UK and the Eurozone on Wednesday, and the Euro and the Pound are losing ground against a firmer US Dollar as rising global yields and fresh hostilities in Iran hammered investors’ appetite for risk.
In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) Council member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel affirmed earlier on the day that markets see “over 95% chances of a September rate hike”, but has failed to provide any significant support to the Euro. The pair seems to need additional impulse to break above the mentioned resistance area.
Technical Analysis: Euro faces strong resistance ahead of 0.8585
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8573, holding in a neutral, slightly capped stance with bulls contained below the top of a triangle pattern, in the 0.8580-0.8585 area. Momentum indicators show a lack of clear bias, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) wavering around the key 50 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flat near the zero line.
Triangles are often continuation patterns, and, in this case, a bullish breakout is favoured. Above 0.8585 (July 30 high), the next target is the late June lows just above 0.8600. The triangle's measured target is at the June 26 high, at the 0.8630 area.
Bearish attempts, on the contrary, are seen contained at the 0.8560 area, where the triangle bottom crosses Tuesday's low, and below here, at the August 25 low, of 0.8546.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.21%0.16%-0.37%0.18%0.06%0.94%0.20%EUR-0.21%-0.06%-0.57%-0.03%-0.15%0.70%-0.00%GBP-0.16%0.06%-0.50%0.03%-0.10%0.74%0.05%JPY0.37%0.57%0.50%0.55%0.42%1.27%0.57%CAD-0.18%0.03%-0.03%-0.55%-0.13%0.72%0.02%AUD-0.06%0.15%0.10%-0.42%0.13%0.85%0.16%NZD-0.94%-0.70%-0.74%-1.27%-0.72%-0.85%-0.69%CHF-0.20%0.00%-0.05%-0.57%-0.02%-0.16%0.69% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Pound-Australian Dollar could slip back if Australian GDP reinforces RBA hike expectations, although renewed risk aversion may keep the Aussie under pressure. The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate trended higher on Tuesday as a cautious market mood weakened demand for risk-sensitive assets like the 'Aussie'.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.8958. Up around 0.3% from the start of Tuesday’s opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.889968 (+0.03%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.352508 (-0.17%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) faced modest selling pressure on Tuesday as renewed military tensions between the US and Iran triggered a deterioration in market risk appetite.
The two sides exchanged strikes for the first time in several weeks, quashing hopes for a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
The escalation triggered a fresh rise in oil prices and prompted investors to adopt a more defensive stance.
However, the pressure on the Australian Dollar was partially offset by some encouraging Chinese economic data. China’s private RatingDog Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in August from 50.9 in July, comfortably exceeding expectations and likely feeding greater demand for Australian exports.
While able to appreciate against its more risk-sensitive currencies, the Pound (GBP) traded in a relatively narrow range against most of its other peers on Tuesday as UK markets reopened following Monday’s bank holiday to a sharp rise in government borrowing costs.
UK 10-year gilt yields climbed to around 5.24% - their highest level since 2008 - as rising oil prices and renewed concerns over inflation fuelled expectations that central banks may need to maintain tighter monetary policy.
Elsewhere, an upwards revision to the UK's manufacturing PMI in August appeared to have little material impact on Sterling.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Steady GDP Print to Lift the 'Aussie'? Turning to mid-week trade, the Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate may be pressured by the publication of the UK's latest GDP figures.
Wednesday's data is expected to show the Australian economy continued to expand at a steady pace of 0.3% in the second quarter of 2026.
While below the blistering pace of growth set at the end of 2025, the expansion should still be enough to underpin bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver an interest rate hike later this month.
Meanwhile, in the absence of any notable UK economic indicators, any movement in the Pound through the middle of the week is likely to be dictated by wider market trends.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Sell NZD/USD. RBNZ hiked to 2.75% but the market is still repricing higher NZ and US yields (NZ 10Y to 4.86%). NZD is already in a confirmed bearish breakout: below 0.5860 pivot and the 50-day MA, with momentum pointing toward the next Murrey pivot/reverse level. Trade the rate-spread + yield-up trend, not the single hike headline.
Key Risk: Oil-driven inflation stays sticky and forces the RBNZ to keep hiking faster than the Fed, reversing the yield spread and lifting NZD.
NZ 10Y bond short (receiver risk)
Sell NZ government 10Y futures/bonds. The article flags rising NZ yields tied to crude/transport inflation risk and a higher-for-longer global rate path (Fed hike expectations). With NZD breaking down and yields at the highest since March, duration is vulnerable to further upside in yields.
Key Risk: RBNZ turns more dovish than markets expect (growth/job insecurity bites hard), causing NZ yields to fall and crushing the short.
The NZD/USD exchange rate continued its strong downward trend, reaching its lowest level since August 13 this year after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered its interest rate decision. It slumped to 0.5835, down by over 2.6% from its highest point in August.
New Zealand’s RBNZ decided to hike interest rates for the second consecutive meeting as it fights to lower inflation, which has remained above the 2% level in the past few years.
It brought the benchmark interest rate to 2.75%, narrowing the gap with the benchmark US interest rate, which stands between 3.50% and 3.75%.
In a statement, the RBNZ maintained that inflation is a major issue in the country, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 4.1% in the June qyuarter, driven by elevated crude oil prices.
While core inflation remains high, officials expect that it will come down to the target range sometime in 2027. The statement added:
“Resilient demand from New Zealand’s trading partners and strong export prices are supporting income growth and investment in export-exposed sectors and regional New Zealand.”
Still, the bank warned that the economy is seeing weak income growth, job insecurity, and flat house prices, which are having an impact on household spending and residential investment in Auckland and Wellington.
A key challenge is that inflation may remain at an elevated level in the coming weeks now that the US and Iran have resumed their kinetic activity. Brent and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have continued rising and now sits at $95 and $90, respectively.
The crisis will likely escalate in the coming days, which will push crude oil and transportation prices substantially in the coming weeks.
This is one key reasons why New Zealand’s and US bond yields have continued rising. The ten-year yield jumped to 4.86%, its highest level since March 23rd this year. It has risen substantially from the June low of 4.358%.
The same is happening in the United States, where the ten-year and 30-year rose to 4.8% and 5.28%, respectively. These yields have jumped as investors expect that the Fed will hike interest rates as soon as this month.
NZDUSD chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the NZD/USD pair peaked at 0.5990 in August. This was an important level since it was its highest point in May and June this year.
The pair has now slumped and moved below the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since June, July, and August this year. Moving below that level confirmed the bearish breakout.
The pair has moved below the Major S/R pivot point of 0.5860, and the 50-day moving average. Therefore, the pair will likely remain under pressure in the coming days, potentially to the strong, pivot, reverse level of the Murrey Math Lines too.
Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its early losses and rebounds to near $64.00 till the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal is broadly under pressure as surging United States (US) Treasury yields due to hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets are hurting non-yielding assets.
During the day, 10-year US Treasury Yields hit a record high at 4.81%, the highest level seen since November 2023.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates in the policy meeting this month.
Hawkish Fed bets accelerated after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned of upside inflation risks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Analysts at MUFG highlight that, while Fed Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in Jackson Hole on Friday, “the gist of his speech was similar to his previous speeches.” They note that he once again “talked tough on inflation” and underscored that if inflation does not decline at “sufficient speed” then the Fed still has “work to do,” reinforcing the perception that the policy bias remains tilted toward further tightening if disinflation stalls.
On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michael Barr highlighted the need to hike interest rates if price pressures don’t moderate soon. Barr also warned, “Inflation remains too high.”
Later in the day, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change data for August, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. According to estimates, the US private sector created 48K fresh jobs, slightly higher than 44K in July.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.05. The pair holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.33, keeping the near-term tone mildly bearish as the failed attempt to sustain above recent highs leaves price capped by this dynamic resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.72 hovers just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at waning bullish momentum rather than an outright oversold condition.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around $65.33, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease current downside pressure and open the way back toward the recent peak zone. Looking up, the Silver price could advance further to the August high at $71.12.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note GBP/USD broke below its anticipated intraday range, dropping to 1.3507 as downside momentum starts to build. Intraday, they expect a bearish bias with potential tests of 1.3500 and the major 1.3480 support, provided prices stay below 1.3545. Over one to three weeks, they keep a downside risk focus, with 1.3480 as the key level unless 1.3570 resistance is breached.
Pound under pressure toward support"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP traded between 1.3531 and 1.3565 two days ago and closed little changed at 1.3549 (+0.06%). Yesterday, we stated that “the price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase,” and we were of the view that GBP “could trade in a higher range of 1.3535/1.3570 today.” However, instead of trading in a range, GBP declined to a low of 1.3507. Downward momentum is building tentatively, and today we expect GBP to trade with a downside bias, potentially testing the major support at 1.3480 (there is another support level at 1.3500). To sustain the momentum build-up, GBP must hold below 1.3545, with minor resistance at 1.3530."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from Monday (31 Aug, spot at 1.3540) still stands. As highlighted, “the risk for GBP remains on the downside, and the level to watch is 1.3480.” On the upside, a breach of 1.3570 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.3600) would indicate that the downward pressure from last Friday has eased. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
DXY strengthens as Iran escalation lifts inflation risks and Fed hike bets, while EUR/USD and GBP/USD extend their bearish breakdowns.
In this article:GBP/USD
-0.09%
GBP/USD ForecastEUR/USD
-0.07%
EUR/USD ForecastUS Dollar News: Iran Escalation and Fed Hike Bets Lift Dollar Beginning September 2, the dollar will be stronger against multiple currencies due to new concerns arising from Iran dealing with the U.S. including the price of oil, inflation and increases in bond yields. Before the start of trading most markets set the probability of a rate hike by the Fed in September as 68%. It is clear that the market believes Warsh’s speech, the uncertainty of inflation, and an energy shock combined with the price of oil going up, have all added to the hawkish sentiments that are influencing this decision. In the U.S., data has been coming in below expectations, but this has not mattered because the market has other concerns, such as demand for safe haven currencies and the risk of inflation.
Dollar jumps against Euro due to strong inflation numbers. The inflation data from the Eurozone shows core inflation was 2.4%, while headline inflation was 3.3% with energy inflation at 14.3%. This far exceeds the inflation numbers from last year. This has increased the expectation for the European Central Bank to increase the deposit rate to 2.50% and rate hikes are expected when they meet next week.
Most expect interest rates will remain unchanged in the U.K. Also like in the Eurozone, the BoE has been dealing with higher inflation. The BoE has been able to address inflation and weaker labor market conditions, but new concerns have been the increased use of the Bank of England’s long-term repo facility. On August 18, the BoE noted the use of this facility called Level C collateral, which is higher risk, had been used the most since 2020.
For September 2, synchronized tightening pressure is the main FX theme. The dollar should benefit from a combination of an upward shift in Fed hike expectations and safe-haven flows. Meanwhile, the euro should benefit from an ECB rate hike while Sterling should continue to feel pressure from both inflation and weaker domestic financial conditions.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Reclaims 99.34 Support and Pushes Toward 99.90 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index is currently trading at 99.76 with price action continuing its rally from the 99.34 – 99.40 support region. Buyers clearly defended this region and pushed price above both the moving averages, showing a much stronger recovery from the previous consolidation.
I am currently long the US dollar Index. Looking for 99.90 as the next level of interest.
DXY has breached 99.57 and is trading up toward the 99.90 level. Currently, 100.09 is the next major resistance zone. If the bullish pressure continues, the price may cross the next resistance levels of 100.25 and 100.39. On the bearish side, I’ll be watching the support levels of 99.73, 99.57, and the major support zone of 99.34 to 99.40.
RSI is around neutral territory, which suggests bullish recovery potential. I’ll remain bullish so long as DXY trades above the 99.57 level, and especially above the 99.34 level. A break below the 99.34 level may signal that the recovery has failed.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Extends Breakdown as 1.3481 Support Comes Into Focus
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Currently trading at 1.3501, GBP/USD continues its decline from the resistance level of 1.3656-1.3676. I should say here that there was no correction. Rather, sterling violation of the channel, both moving averages, and the trend of lower highs and lower lows continues. What this means is that weakness is structural, not just a correction.
The area of interest now is 1.3481, which currently provides support, but may attract some short term selling. Should that level be broken, then sellers should be looking for support at 1.3435 and 1.3400. Resistance now is around 1.3526 and extends to 1.3565 and 1.3601.
The RSI is currently in oversold territory, so I can’t just dismiss a rebound from 1.3481. However, I still favor a bearish position as long as GBP/USD is below 1.3565. A move above 1.3601 would force me to change my mind on that position. However, I still favor a bearish position. Until then, I favor a bearish position.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Loses Rising Trendline as 1.1571 Becomes the Key Line I’m Watching EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The Euro is currently trading just above the 1.1578 level on the 2-hour chart after breaking beneath the trendline that supported theEA rise. I want to highlight that the pair lost the 1.1625 level and fell beneath the two short term moving averages as support broke. This shows that the recent euro bullish structure has weakened.
The first level that I am watching is 1.1571. The level is just above the current price. The RSI is already in oversold territory which would give buyers the opportunity to defend the level. If 1.1571 breaks, then the levels of interest are 1.1547 and 1.1522. If price action continues to head higher then the resistance levels are 1.1600-1.1625 and above that 1.1659.
I am currently more bearish as long as the price action remains beneath 1.1625. This would change if price action moves higher and closes above the 1.1625 level and the falling trend line. For now, all rallies should be expected to be more corrective in nature with 1.1571 being the main breakout level to watch.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
Pound-Dollar could push higher if US employment stays weak, although renewed geopolitical tensions may keep safe-haven Dollar demand firm. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate rebounded through the second half of Tuesday's session following the release of underwhelming US economic data.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3551. Virtually unchanged from Tuesday’s opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.352393 (-0.18%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.15886 (-0.25%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 160.13862 (+0.24%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) initially ticked higher on Tuesday, with the safe-haven currency attracting support amid fresh hostilities between the US and Iran.
The tit-for-tat strikes were the first overtly hostile action taken by either side in several weeks and triggered a fresh jump in oil prices.
However, the US Dollar struggled to sustain these gains for long, with the currency falling back through the second half of the European session with the release of two key US economic indicators.
Both last month's ISM manufacturing PMI and July's JOLTs job opening data printed below forecasts, with the latter proving particularly disappointing to USD investors as signs of a slowing US labour market calls into question bets for future Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
The Pound (GBP) traded sideways against most major rivals on Tuesday, as London traders returned from the bank holiday to a sharp surge in UK borrowing costs, with benchmark 10-year gilt yields climbing to around 5.24%, their highest levels since 2008.
The move was fuelled by higher crude oil prices and resurfacing inflation anxieties, which reinforced bets that central banks like the Bank of England (BoE) will be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer.
At the same time, an upward revision to August's UK manufacturing PMI offered little support, passing largely unnoticed by currency markets.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Soft Employment Numbers to Weigh on the 'Greenback'? Looking ahead, the primary catalyst of movement for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate on Wednesday may be the publication of the latest US ADP employment figures.
August's data is forecast to show employment growth remains sluggish, potentially weighing on the US Dollar as it dampens expectations for Friday's more influential payrolls data.
Meanwhile, with no major UK economic releases on the immediate horizon, Sterling's trajectory through the middle of the week will be primarily driven by wider currency market trends.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,676.91 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,720.13 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 101,205.70 per tola from PHP 101,709.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,676.91
10 Grams
86,769.07
Tola
101,205.70
Troy Ounce
269,882.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 519.87 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 522.56 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,063.69 per tola from SAR 6,095.09 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
519.87
10 Grams
5,198.72
Tola
6,063.69
Troy Ounce
16,169.69
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The AUD/USD pair drops to a one-and-a-half-week low during the Asian session on Wednesday and currently trades around the 0.7135 region, down for the second straight day.
The initial market reaction to Australia's better-than-expected Q2 GDP print fades rather quickly amid some follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying, bolstered by rising US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and escalating US-Iran tensions. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside and backs the case for an extension of the recent pullback from levels just above the 0.7200 mark, or the highest since mid-May, touched last Friday.
Any subsequent fall is more likely to find decent support near the 0.7125 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-August rally. This, in turn, suggests a supportive technical backdrop, even as the Relative Strength Index (14) eases back toward the mid-30s. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hints at waning momentum rather than an outright bearish reversal.
A convincing break below the said support, however, would expose subsequent Fibonacci supports near 0.7074, 0.7033 and 0.6992, with broader structure extending toward 0.6934 and 0.6860. On the top side, the 0.7170 horizontal zone could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 0.7200 mark, which, if conquered, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair keeps the short-term bullish tone intact as long as it sustains trading above the 0.7125 confluence.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Australia during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Australian economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a quarterly basis. It is published about 65 days after the quarter ends. The indicator is closely watched, as it paints an important picture for the economy. A strong labor market, rising wages and rising private capital expenditure data are critical for the country’s improved economic performance, which in turn impacts the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision and the Australian dollar. Actual figures beating estimates is considered AUD bullish, as it could prompt the RBA to tighten its monetary policy.
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 38,429.84 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 38,627.31 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 448,238.10 per tola from PKR 450,541.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
38,429.84
10 Grams
384,291.60
Tola
448,238.10
Troy Ounce
1,195,252.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 508.56 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 511.11 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,931.70 per tola from AED 5,961.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
508.56
10 Grams
5,085.56
Tola
5,931.70
Troy Ounce
15,817.93
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The EUR/USD pair loses traction to near 1.1575 during the early European session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) stance and escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions. Traders will keep an eye on the Eurozone Retail Sales and US employment data, which are due on Friday.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it has launched a “heavy” ballistic missile attack on Prince Hassan airbase and a US Marine base in Jordan in response to earlier US strikes that killed civilians.
The US military said that its forces completed a wave of strikes against Iranian targets on Tuesday after what it said were attempted attacks by Iran against commercial shipping and American service members. Signs of rising tensions in the Middle East boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Greenback and creating a headwind for the major pair.
Furthermore, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium might contribute to the USD’s upside. Warsh warned last week that policymakers may need to tighten again if inflation fails to move convincingly towards 2%. Traders raise their bets on a September rate hike after Warsh’s comments.
Expectations of a September Fed rate hike rose to 68%, up from below 40% before the speech, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Eurozone inflation risks keep ECB bias tilted toward further tighteningBNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that ECB officials remain wary of the inflation outlook, noting that one policymaker “warned that prolonged disruption could sustain inflation pressure even without a wage-price spiral.” According to Yu, “that framing reinforces the path toward another ECB hike in September”: in his view, “policymakers appear increasingly unwilling to wait for second-round effects before acting,” with the ECB “more assertive than its peers” in leaning against the risk that price pressures become entrenched.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD retains a neutral outlook in the near termIn the daily chart, EUR/USD sits just above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which lends immediate support, but it remains below the 20-day Bollinger middle band, leaving spot marginally capped within its recent range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.8 is effectively neutral, suggesting directionless momentum as price consolidates between nearby support and overhead resistance bands.
On the topside, the immediate resistance level is located at 1.1600, representing the Bollinger middle band and the psychological level. A more significant barrier is seen at the upper Bollinger band near 1.1710, where recent rallies would likely face supply.
On the downside, immediate support is defined by the 100-day SMA at 1.1565. A break below this level would expose the lower Bollinger band around 1.1490, opening the door to a deeper pullback within the broader consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 559.38 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 562.81 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,524.55 per tola from MYR 6,564.55 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
559.38
10 Grams
5,593.84
Tola
6,524.55
Troy Ounce
17,398.91
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
NZD/USD gains ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5840 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
During the September Monetary Policy Review, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman stated that the official cash rate (OCR) track remains closely aligned with the May projections. Breman noted that moving the OCR toward a neutral stance remains accommodative, allowing the central bank to curb inflation while supporting the broader economy. Breman added that policymakers may need additional time to evaluate the full impact of their current monetary stance. Earlier on, Breman and her colleagues hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%, as widely expected.
Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the NZD/USD pair remains within an ascending channel pattern, indicating a bullish bias is still active. However, NZD/USD maintains a bearish near-term tone as it sits below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the nine-period EMA. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated toward the low-40s, hinting that downside momentum is building while rallies are likely to face selling pressure against this overhead EMA cluster.
The NZD/USD pair is hovering around the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.5850. A sustained break below the channel would confirm the confirm the bearish reversal and put downward pressure on the pair to explore the region around a nearly 17-month low of the 14-month low of 0.5580, which was recorded in November 2025. Further support lies at 0.5485, the lowest since March 2020.
On the upside, the NZD/USD pair may rebound and test the immediate barrier at the 50-day EMA of 0.5864, followed by the nine-day EMA at 0.5907. A break above these moving averages would revive the bullish bias and support the pair to approach the six-month high of 0.5996.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.15%0.13%-0.02%0.18%0.16%1.02%0.19%EUR-0.15%-0.03%-0.13%0.04%0.02%0.85%0.04%GBP-0.13%0.03%-0.11%0.05%0.03%0.85%0.06%JPY0.02%0.13%0.11%0.18%0.16%0.98%0.18%CAD-0.18%-0.04%-0.05%-0.18%-0.02%0.81%0.00%AUD-0.16%-0.02%-0.03%-0.16%0.02%0.83%0.04%NZD-1.02%-0.85%-0.85%-0.98%-0.81%-0.83%-0.79%CHF-0.19%-0.04%-0.06%-0.18%-0.00%-0.04%0.79% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,145.36 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,216.51 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 153,324.80 per tola from INR 154,154.80 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,145.36
10 Grams
131,454.30
Tola
153,324.80
Troy Ounce
408,877.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Dollar Index has risen slightly but can be bearish while below 100 while Euro could trade within 1.1550-1.1650 in the near term. Aussie and Pound could rise above 0.72 and 1.36 respectively while EURINR looks bearish for a dip to 109.50-109. Indian Rupee strengthened as RBI sold dollars and increased the short dollar position which could keep rupee strength intact for the near term while the Chinese Yuan can strengthen towards 6.70 soon while 6.7250/7270 holds. USDJPY and EURJPY can rise in the near term towards 161-162 and 186 respectively.
The US Treasury Yields continue to move up. Rising oil price is pushing the yields higher. The Treasury yields have room to rise more. Outlook continues to remain bullish. The German Yields remain in their resistance zone. Need to see if they are able to breach the resistance and go higher or falling down from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen just above its key resistance. If the breakout sustains, then the yield can rise more. It will also negate our view of seeing a fall back.
Dow and DAX remain weak and could fall further towards 52500-52000 and 25500, respectively, as Middle East tensions weigh on sentiment. Nifty is also under pressure and, while it remains below 24,200, the chances are slightly tilted towards a break below 24,000, which could drag it towards 23800-23700. Nikkei needs to hold above 64500 to keep the earlier upside view towards 67000-68000 intact, while Shanghai is likely to remain range-bound within 4000-3850 for some time.
Brent and WTI have turned strongly bullish after breaking above our earlier ranges and could move towards 100 and 95, respectively, as US-Iran tensions remain high. Gold and Silver remain weak and could fall further towards 4200 and 62-60, respectively, while higher Treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations continue to weigh on them. Copper can hold within 6.5-6.8 as long as 6.5 remains intact. Natural Gas is likely to remain range-bound between 2.70-3.00 while below 3, but a break above 3.00 could open the way towards 3.25-3.50.
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Gold extends its decline on Wednesday, facing enormous pressure due to surging United States (US) Treasury Yields and rising oil prices.
US 10-year bond yields hit fresh almost three-year highIn Asian trade on Wednesday, 10-year US Treasury Yields hit a record high at 4.81%, the highest level seen since November 2023.
Higher yields on interest-bearing assets result in diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
Strategists at BNY see “fiscal concerns and doubts about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) credibility” as the key culprits behind the latest move in long-dated US yields. They also highlighted that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium led “overnight and swaps rates through the 2y yield all pricing in some tightening to come.”
Although Fed Chair Warsh stopped short of explicit forward guidance in his Jackson Hole address, he “stepped as close to the line as possible in advocating a hike,” with the market now “pricing an almost two-thirds probability for one at the FOMC’s September 16 meeting,” BNY said in a note.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates in the policy meeting this month.
Oil price reaches $90 mark on renewed Middle East risksThe WTI Oil price has extended its advance on Wednesday, posting a fresh five-week high at $90.78. Oil prices continue to rise as fears of prolonged energy supply disruption have returned due to renewed military aggression between the US and Iran.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that Washington is striking Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iran’s "failed attempt" to add sea mines in the Strait, which currently “has no mines.” Trump added that the US base at Jordan successfully knocked down all eight missiles launched by Tehran.
Higher oil prices continue to boost global inflation expectations, a scenario that prompts fears of interest rate hikes by central banks. This bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
US data awaitedIn Wednesday’s session, investors will keep an eye on the US ADP Employment Change data for August, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. The US private sector is expected to have created 48K fresh jobs, slightly lower than 44K in July.
The US private employment data is expected to have a significant impact on Fed’s interest rate expectations.
Gold Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,295.45, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $4,409.75. The failure to reclaim this dynamic cap reinforces a downside bias, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 44 suggests soft, but not extreme, negative momentum consistent with a corrective phase rather than a full oversold washout.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $4,409.75, and bulls would need a clear close above this barrier to ease the current downside pressure. With no clear structural supports provided in the dataset, traders may look to recent lows and intraday price action for interim demand zones, while the subdued RSI reading hints that further weakness cannot be ruled out as long as price remains capped beneath the 20-day EMA.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The USD/JPY pair touches a fresh high since July 31 on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through buying and remains below 160.50 through the Asian session.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues its relative underperformance on the back of fiscal concerns stemming from a surge in bond yields, which increases the cost of servicing Japan's massive debt pile. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, climbs to a nearly three-week top as oil-driven inflation fears reaffirm bets for a September interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
Furthermore, the persistent wide US-Japan interest rate differential keeps the so-called JPY carry trade active and backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. However, expectations for faster policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) cap the upside as traders await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
From a technical perspective, momentum indicators remain constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in the mid-60s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holding slightly positive. This hints that buyers retain control and suggests that the underlying demand is still present despite the recent consolidation. The USD/JPY pair is looking to build on its strength beyond the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.
Meanwhile, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the sharp corrective decline from a four-decade high, at 160.64, could act as the first notable topside barrier, capping immediate upside. A clear break above would open the way toward the 78.6% level at 162.10, with the July swing high around 163.96 standing as a more distant resistance, where bullish pressure could begin to fade.
On the downside, initial support aligns at the 50.0% Fibo. retracement at 159.62, creating a cushioning zone if the USD/JPY pair pulls back. A deeper slide would expose subsequent supports at the 38.2% retracement around 158.59 and then the 23.6% Fibo. level near 157.32.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.24%-0.04%1.91%-0.66%-1.35%1.08%0.80%EUR0.24%0.22%2.21%-0.37%-1.01%1.35%1.05%GBP0.04%-0.22%1.62%-0.62%-1.23%1.13%0.83%JPY-1.91%-2.21%-1.62%-2.45%-3.06%-0.69%-1.00%CAD0.66%0.37%0.62%2.45%-0.61%1.81%1.46%AUD1.35%1.01%1.23%3.06%0.61%2.38%2.09%NZD-1.08%-1.35%-1.13%0.69%-1.81%-2.38%-0.30%CHF-0.80%-1.05%-0.83%1.00%-1.46%-2.09%0.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) continued to decline on Wednesday. Spot gold dropped to $4,290 and marked the lowest price since Aug. 7. Silver dropped to $63.60. Both metals were pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields. The next clear direction is now the U.S. employment data to be released on Friday.
Oil prices also rose for the third day as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated. Brent oil rose over $95 and WTI oil rose over $91. Rising oil prices can help keep inflation high, which can force the Fed to increase interest rates. These risks have weakened gold’s safe haven reaction to the conflict.
The markets now expect 67% probability of a September rate hike. This is up from around 40% a week ago. Fed Governor Michael Barr also indicated that the Fed might have to hike rates if inflation does not slow down quickly. The ADP employment report is due today, followed by the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Weak employment data may introduce a correction in yields and support a recovery in gold and silver prices. But solid data could boost rate hike expectations and extend the current decline in gold and silver prices.
Gold Price Forecast: $4,220 Support in Focus Before US Jobs Report The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has failed to break above $4,800 and continues to move lower. The immediate support remains the 50-day SMA at $4,220. A break below this level will likely open the door for another strong drop towards the $4,000 area. However, the key event for the gold market is the employment report on Friday. This data will likely drive the next short term move in the precious metals market.
The negative price action in the spot gold market is observed on the weekly chart. The chart shows a failure at the key resistance area of $4,800. The price is moving again toward the ascending trendline support at $4,150. If the price drops again towards this zone and recovers strongly, it will likely form a strong bottom around this level. But a break below $4,000 will likely open the way for another strong drop towards the $3,500 area.
Silver Price Forecast: $60 Support in Focus as Rate Hike Odds Rise The daily chart for spot silver also shows strong resistance at $72. The price has now broken the $64 area. In the short term, the immediate support remains the $60-$61 region. A break below this level will likely trigger strong drop towards the $55 area.
The price is still above the major support zone between $45 and $55. If the price recovers and breaks above $72, it will likely confirm the bottom and continue higher.
The failure at the $72 resistance is evident on the 4-hour chart. The chart shows that the price broke the descending wedge pattern but failed to break above the key level of $72. The price has again moved below the descending wedge pattern, which indicates neutral price action. But a break below $60 may tilt this neutral movement towards bearish price action in the short term.
Gold and Silver Price Outlook Ahead of US Jobs Report Gold and silver remain under pressure as the stronger U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields and rising rate hike expectations weaken demand. The employment report on Friday will likely decide the next move. Weak data could pull yields lower and support the recovery in both metals from their support zones. But strong data could push gold below $4,220 and silver below $60. Gold must break above $4,800, while silver must clear $72 to restore bullish momentum. Until then, the short term outlook remains weak and price volatility may stay high.
Read more: Will $4,300 Support Hold Amid Fed Rate Hike Fears?
Gold (XAU/USD) drops to a nearly four-week low during the Asian session on Wednesday and is now looking to extend the fall further below $4,300 amid a bearish fundamental backdrop. The escalating Middle East conflict lifts crude oil prices to a fresh high since July 24, stoking inflation fears and reaffirming US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets. Apart from this, some follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying continues to exert downward pressure on the bullion.
Tensions between the US and Iran reignited following a US strike on Iranian rocket launchers near Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. This was the first US strike since late July, prompting an Iranian counterattack on US-linked targets in the region. Adding to this, the Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Tuesday that US forces struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets. In response, Iran escalated the confrontation and launched heavy ballistic missile and drone attacks on American interests in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan on Wednesday. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, supporting crude oil prices and the safe-haven Greenback.
Meanwhile, investors remain worried that elevated energy prices will rekindle inflationary pressures and force major central banks, including the US Fed, to adopt a more hawkish stance. Adding to this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday continue to fuel expectations of a rate hike in September. Furthermore, concerns about fiscal debt led to a deepening global bond market sell-off, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury to its highest level since January 2025. This is seen as another factor that continues to drive flows away from the non-yielding Gold and backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move.
US 10-year yields seen grinding toward 5%Societe Generale’s rates strategists warn that the latest sell-off leaves the US curve vulnerable to further upside in long-end yields, noting that “at this pace, US 10s are on track for 5%.” They frame the move as part of an ongoing bear steepening, with investors increasingly testing how much additional term premium the market will demand as policy expectations remain skewed toward further Fed tightening.
Traders, however, might opt to wait for the release of the closely watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The crucial labor market data will be looked at for more cues about the Fed's future policy outlook, which, in turn, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the precious metal. In the meantime, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside. Hence, any attempted recovery might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out quickly.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical AnalysisAn intraday break below the 50% retracement level of the recent recovery from the year-to-date low, touched in July, could be seen as a key trigger for XAU/USD bears. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is deeply negative and below the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 44, hinting at fading bullish momentum. However, some follow-through selling below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $4,276 is needed to back the case for further losses.
The said support is followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at around $4,236, which, if broken, would expose the 78.6% retracement near $4,111 and the prior swing low region around $3,952. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement near $4,324, ahead of a tighter hurdle at the 38.2% retracement around $4,412, with a stronger barrier further up at the 23.6% level near $4,521.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.12%0.09%0.03%0.12%0.04%0.81%0.15%EUR-0.12%-0.04%-0.07%0.00%-0.07%0.67%0.03%GBP-0.09%0.04%-0.04%0.04%-0.05%0.68%0.07%JPY-0.03%0.07%0.04%0.08%-0.00%0.73%0.10%CAD-0.12%-0.01%-0.04%-0.08%-0.08%0.66%0.03%AUD-0.04%0.07%0.05%0.00%0.08%0.74%0.13%NZD-0.81%-0.67%-0.68%-0.73%-0.66%-0.74%-0.61%CHF-0.15%-0.03%-0.07%-0.10%-0.03%-0.13%0.61% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
TL;DR: The same Iran escalation is pushing Brent toward $102 through supply risk while dragging Gold toward $4,230 through the rate channel — higher oil raises inflation expectations, higher expected rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, and that rate channel is currently overpowering geopolitical demand for Gold.
War Risk Is Lifting Oil, and Hurting Gold The same geopolitical shock is pushing two major commodities in opposite directions this week. Iran escalation is lifting Brent toward $102 through the supply-risk channel, while the inflation consequences of higher oil are pushing yields higher and Gold toward $4,230. That may look counterintuitive given Gold’s traditional sensitivity to geopolitical uncertainty, but the current market response is coherent: Hormuz risk lifts crude, higher crude threatens more persistent inflation, stronger inflation pressure raises the expected path of interest rates, and higher yields become a headwind for bullion.
So this isn’t a story about Gold somehow ignoring war risk. It’s a story about the rate channel overpowering geopolitical demand.
Conflict Has Moved Beyond a Contained Exchange The latest escalation is also materially broader than the weekend clash. US strikes on Tuesday went beyond the limited operation on Larak Island and targeted Iranian air defenses, radar systems, maritime facilities, mine-laying capabilities, and communications infrastructure around the Gulf and Hormuz. Iran didn’t absorb those strikes — it retaliated with missile and drone attacks against US-linked targets across the region.
That changes the forward question. US President Donald Trump had already warned that Iranian retaliation would trigger a stronger US response. Iran has now retaliated, so the oil market is no longer asking whether Tehran responds — it’s asking whether Washington now carries out the threatened next round. That creates a potential self-reinforcing cycle: US strike → Iranian retaliation → larger US retaliation → greater risk to Hormuz and Gulf infrastructure.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Brent: Break Above 94.83 Puts 102 Back in View Technically, Brent’s rally from 84.56 has accelerated through 94.83 resistance, suggesting the consolidation from 102.00 may have completed with three waves down to 84.56. That strengthens the case that the larger rise from 70.14 is resuming.
Further upside is favored while Brent holds above the 55 4H EMA near 90.10. The immediate target is a retest of 102.00, followed by 104.23, the 61.8% projection of 70.14 to 102.00 from 84.56.
The more important level may be 104.23. A decisive break would suggest the market is no longer merely restoring the geopolitical premium lost during previous de-escalation, but beginning to price a materially larger Gulf supply shock. In that case, the next target of the 100% projection at 116.39 would come into view.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold: Rates Overwhelm Geopolitical Demand Gold is expressing the same shock from the opposite direction. The fall from 4,697.07 has broken the 4,324.23 structural support area, the 50% retracement of 3,942.43 to 4,697.07 at 4,319.75, and the 55-day EMA around 4,337.66. Taken together, those breaks strengthen the case that the rebound from 3,942.43 has already completed.
Near-term risk remains lower while Gold stays below the 55 4H EMA around 4,478.21. The next important downside level is 4,230.70, the 61.8% retracement of 3,942.43 to 4,697.07. A sustained break there would expose 3,942.43 again.
Gold’s weakness doesn’t mean geopolitical risk has stopped mattering. Instead, this episode is producing a stronger competing force. Higher oil raises concern that inflation will stay elevated longer, reinforcing expectations that the Fed and other major central banks may need to maintain or increase restrictive policy. Higher yields then raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
Three Tests Will Decide Whether This Move Extends First, does Trump follow through with another retaliation? A larger US strike after Iran’s response would raise the probability of a prolonged military cycle.
Second, does Hormuz remain physically usable? Recovering tanker flows would cap the oil premium; renewed disruption would make a breakout above 100 much more durable.
Third, do yields continue following oil higher? If Brent approaches 102 and bond yields keep climbing, Gold’s move toward 4,230 would remain consistent with the current macro mechanism. If yields stop responding even while crude stays high, Gold could begin separating from the oil shock, and geopolitical demand could regain influence.
For now, both charts are pointing in the same macro direction even though prices are moving opposite ways: Brent is breaking resistance because supply risk is rising, while Gold is breaking support because inflation consequences are raising the cost of money.
Key Takeaways Brent and Gold are moving in opposite directions from the same Iran escalation: supply risk lifts oil, while the resulting inflation and rate expectations pressure Gold. Iran’s retaliation against US strikes shifts the key question from whether Tehran responds to whether Washington escalates further, creating a potential self-reinforcing cycle. Brent’s break above 94.83 opens a retest of 102.00 and then 104.23; a break of 104.23 would signal markets are pricing a larger Gulf supply shock, not just restoring lost premium. Gold has broken its 4,324.23 structural support, with 4,230.70 as the next downside target and 3,942.43 exposed on a sustained break below that. The key confirmation to watch is whether yields keep following oil higher; if yields stop responding while oil stays elevated, Gold could decouple and geopolitical demand could return.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $63.40 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The non-yielding Silver declines as a global bond selloff drove the US 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.80%, hitting its highest point since early 2025. This surge in yields reignited market anxieties surrounding stubborn inflation and the possibility of further interest rate increases.
Compounding these inflationary concerns, crude oil prices spiked due to intensifying geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran, which threatens energy supplies out of the Middle East. According to TD Securities, the latest flare-up between the US and Iran is reinforcing the sense that the regional backdrop remains highly unstable. Strategists there argue that the renewed tensions “continue to highlight how flimsy any deal or MoU headlines really are,” underscoring the market’s sensitivity to further disruptions and helping to sustain a risk premium across the energy complex.
Meanwhile, recent economic data from the United States offered a mixed picture for investors. July JOLTS job openings fell short of expectations, landing at 7.27 million. At the same time, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped to 54.6 in August from 55.6 in the previous month. While the PMI missed estimates, it stayed comfortably in expansion territory, indicating ongoing strength in the manufacturing domain. Market focus is now shifting to the upcoming ADP employment report and Friday's nonfarm payrolls for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve's rate strategy.
Fed’s Barr keeps hawkish bias as inflation risks keep rate hike option alive Fed’s Barr delivered a slightly more hawkish-than-usual message, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7/10 versus a 6.8/10 historical average, underscoring concern that inflation “remains too high” despite a stable labor market and “solid” AI-driven growth. The conditional guidance — favoring steady rates only if there is confidence inflation is moderating, but explicitly flagging a potential rate hike if it does not — reinforces an asymmetric reaction function tilted toward tightening. Overall, the tone signals a low tolerance for renewed price pressures and keeps upside risks for the Dollar intact.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.42 points to 128.86, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness even as the index remains firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that, while the immediate speech tone was only marginally above the established baseline in the FXS Speechtracker, the broader policy backdrop stays clearly hawkish, with the FXS Fed Sentiment Index still signaling a bias that supports the Dollar against lower-yielding currencies.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
GBP/USD failed to surpass 1.3675 and started a downside correction. It traded below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.3570 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil prices started a fresh surge and surpassed $88.00. EUR/USD started consolidating losses above the 1.1550 support. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound struggled near 1.3675 and dipped against the US Dollar. GBP/USD traded below 1.3620 and 1.3600 to enter a short-term bearish zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.3570. The bears pushed the pair toward the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3273 swing low to the 1.3675 high.
The pair even settled below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). If there are more losses, the pair might find bids near 1.3520.
The first major support could be near 1.3480 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour) or the 50% Fib retracement level. A downside break and close below 1.3480 might start a major leg down. In the stated case, the bears could aim for a move to 1.3425. Any more losses could open the door for a test of 1.3350.
On the upside, GBP/USD could face resistance near the 1.3580 level. The next major resistance might be 1.3600. A close above 1.3600 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3620. Any further gains might open the door for a test of 1.3650.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil prices, the price gained bullish pace, and the bulls could now aim for a move toward the $92.00 level.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
Fed’s Beige Book. US ADP Employment Change for August 2026 – Forecast 48K, versus 44K previous.
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Australian GDP growth remained modest in Q2, but did little to challenge expectations for further RBA tightening. With AUD/USD already retracing alongside a firmer US dollar, attention now turns to ISM and NFP for the next directional catalyst.
View related analysis:
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AUD/USD Shorts Bear the Brunt of Hot CPI, Renewed RBA Hike Bets
Australian Housing Supply Loses Momentum as Approvals Slide
Australian Business Profits Rebound Ahead of Q2 GDP
Australian GDP Leaves RBA Hike Bets Intact as AUD/USD Eyes US Data
Australian GDP growth remained modest in Q2, but the details and more recent data do little to rule out another RBA hike.
Australia’s economy grew 0.4% q/q in Q2 and 2.1% over the year, a modest pace which hardly screams overheating. Household consumption rose 0.4% q/q and 1.8% y/y, while GDP per capita was effectively flat for the quarter but remained 0.7% higher over the year. Domestic final demand contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth, with household consumption contributing 0.2 points. Discretionary consumption increased 1.4%, while net trade added 0.1 percentage points and inventories subtracted 0.1.
Source: ABS
GDP Keeps RBA Hike Risk in Play
On its own, the GDP report probably does little to force the RBA’s hand. But it also provides little reason to dismiss another hike when viewed alongside more recent data. July household spending accelerated 1.1% m/m and 7% y/y, while trimmed mean inflation rose 0.5% m/m and remained at 3.6% y/y. There were also signs of domestic price pressure within the national accounts, with the domestic final demand deflator rising 0.8% q/q and real unit labour costs increasing 0.9%.
Money markets have continued to reprice toward two additional RBA hikes over the coming year, with one-year OIS rising to around 4.80% against the current 4.35% cash rate. That leaves the market increasingly aligned with the view that policy may need to become more restrictive if the recent strength in spending and inflation persists.
With the July data suggesting momentum strengthened after the June quarter ended, the broader data flow continues to keep another RBA hike firmly in play — and that remains a supportive backdrop for the Australian dollar.
Source: LSEG
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar
Despite growing calls for an RBA hike, the Aussie has continued to retrace in line with my bias, thanks to the rebound in the US dollar. But that is no major issue when you consider that AUD/USD rallied for eight weeks before the US dollar rebound saw 72c cap gains. AUD/USD is now sitting just beneath its 10-day EMA, although we could also allow for a move down to its 20-day EMA (0.7116), near last week’s VPOC (volume point of control).
Whether it can break down to 71c or the 0.7088 high may come down to the ISM and NFP reports. But for now, I suspect bulls are seeking evidence of swing lows around support to rejoin the dominant trend, which could leave the intraday charts better suited to bears in the near term.
Note the slight bullish divergence on the 1-hour chart on the RSI (2), so perhaps a cheeky bounce towards the weekly pivot point (0.7168) could be in order)
Source: ICE, TradingView
AUD/USD NFP Volatility Outweighs Directional Bias
A quick look at AUD/USD around NFP shows that volatility, rather than direction, is the clearer historical tendency. The pair has averaged a 1.25% high-to-low range on NFP day, although the median is lower at around 0.97%, suggesting the extreme April 2025 move has skewed the average higher. Volatility also tends to remain relatively elevated in the sessions immediately following the release.
Source: LSEG
Average and median returns themselves are generally small and mixed either side of NFP, providing little evidence of a reliable directional bias. That is useful information in itself: historically, NFP has been more dependable as a volatility event for AUD/USD than a directional one. The unusually large decline in April 2025 also stands out as an obvious tail event, so I would be wary of drawing too much from the average return alone.
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7829 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7809 and 6.7238 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near a two-week low around $4,330 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure on elevated Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar (USD).
US Treasury yields rose to their highest since January 2025 in the previous session as escalating tensions in the Middle East stoked inflation fears and triggered a global bond selloff. Bloomberg reported that the US and Iran traded a new round of attacks Tuesday, with American forces striking Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran saying it had launched a retaliatory operation targeting US interests across the region.
It’s worth noting that rising interest rates and higher yields on Treasuries typically weigh on gold as they raise the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.
“We’re seeing some technical selling pressure... bond yields globally are at highs not seen in years. So that’s all working to pressure the gold market,” said Jim Wyckoff, a market analyst at American Gold Exchange.
Additionally, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium might contribute to the yellow metal’s downside. Warsh warned last week that policymakers may need to tighten again if inflation fails to move convincingly towards 2%. Traders raise their bets on a September rate hike after Warsh’s comments.
The attention will shift to the US jobs data for August, which will be released later on Friday. This report could offer some clues about whether the Fed raises interest rates in September. Any signs of weakening in the US labour market could drag the Greenback lower and underpin the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold positioning holds firm as Fed chair Warsh turns more hawkishAccording to TD Securities, Fed Chair Warsh "struck a more hawkish tone in his Jackson Hole speech as he acknowledged the inflation concerns." Analysts at the bank note that, despite this shift in rhetoric, positioning in Gold has remained resilient, with investors seemingly looking through the renewed focus on inflation and potential future policy tightening.
Technical Analysis: Gold remains capped under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD stays bearish as spot holds beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle band, suggesting rallies are being capped by these overlapping dynamic barriers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.28 hovers just below its neutral midpoint, hinting at waning downside momentum but not yet signaling a convincing recovery.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 100-day SMA around $4,365, followed by the Bollinger middle band near $4,445, while a stronger bullish extension would target the upper Bollinger band at $4,695. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at $4,192 provides the next noteworthy support zone, and a daily close below it would open the door to a deeper corrective leg toward lower psychological levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The shared currency edges lower, capped by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1633, amid rising geopolitical tensions and escalating hostilities between the US and Iran, prompting investors to buy the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1590, down 0.25%.
The EUR/USD retreats below the 200-day SMA towards the 100-day SMA at 1.1569, the first support area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) I above 50, bullish but aims lower, a signal that sellers are gaining strength.
For a bearish continuation, the EUR/USD must clear the 100-day SMA. This will expose the August 13 swing low of 1.1511, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1494. Below, the next support is the 1.1400 psychological level, before the trend resumes lower highs and lower lows.
Buyers must push the pair above the 200-day SMA, ahead of the 1.1700 psychological level. A decisive breakout will expose the May 6 high at 1.1796.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
In Friday's Gold Trading Alert, I wrote: "The breakdown below the rising support line and then below $4,500 will likely be the final two nails in gold's temporary coffin."
Friday's close hammered in the first, and yesterday I noted that the day's close would decide the second.
It decided. Gold closed Monday at $4,481.50, below $4,500, and it trades near $4,426 as I write this, down again. Both nails are in, and the word temporary still means what it meant: gold remains in a long-term bull market, and the following months are still likely to repeat what we saw in late 2012 and 2013 before that bull market resumes.
Silver answered in one sessionYesterday, I wrote: "The immediate-term outperformance in silver is rarely true strength – it's usually the sign that the market wants to move lower, not higher."
This morning, silver is falling at roughly twice gold's pace. The outperformance resolved the way it usually does, within a single session, and silver's breakout invalidation is now the thing to watch on a closing basis.
For now, silver still remains above (precisely: at) its declining resistance line. Once silver breaks back below it, we’re likely to see a powerful slide.
Additionally, please note the following:
Silver already broke below its rising support line, which is a bearish indicationOn Friday, silver topped exactly at the intersection of two support/resistance lines. This technique proved to be very useful once again.Here’s why the support is most likely to fail:
Yesterday was the third day in a row when the USD Index closed above its declining resistance line. This means that the breakout was confirmed. The USD Index is also moving higher today. All this means that the decline that we saw in August is – in all likelihood – over.
The opposite is therefore most likely the case for the precious metals sector. This makes sense also from the fundamental point of view.
The war restarted, and Gold went downThis is the part of today's session that tells you the most.
The US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in roughly a month. American forces targeted Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island after detecting preparations to deploy mines in the strait, Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks on US facilities in Jordan and the UAE, Iranian media reported a tanker struck two mines and a bulk carrier was seized near Bandar Abbas, and President Trump extended military threats to Kharg Island, Iran's key oil export hub. Brent moved back above $90.
And gold is down more than a percent.
A month ago, headlines like these produced hundred-dollar rallies in gold within hours. Today the shooting resumed, oil spiked, and the metal that is supposed to feed on exactly this fell instead. When a market stops responding to its best-case news, the news is not the story. The channel is: oil up means inflation up, inflation up means the Fed stays hawkish, and a hawkish Fed with a confirmed dollar breakout outweighs any war premium. The safe-haven bid did not weaken. It left.
Where this leaves usBoth nails are in, silver delivered on its warning overnight, the miners decline as well. The dollar sits on a confirmed breakout while oil re-arms the channel.
A war restarted this morning, and gold went down. That is the entire story of this market in one sentence.
August manufacturing came in slightly below expectations. July job openings were roughly in line with forecasts. Neither number was soft enough to take the September trade apart. The data is not settling the argument. It is leaving the door open for Warsh to walk through.
ADP employment data arrives Wednesday. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is the larger test. Economists expect 56,000 jobs added in August. A firm report with stronger wages keeps the 68% odds where they are and gold sellers stay in control. A soft number forces a repricing and gives the metal room to find a floor.
What to Watch Friday’s payrolls report decides whether the 68% September odds hold or crack. ADP lands Wednesday. Warsh and Barr both made the same call this week and crude above $90 WTI is not giving either one a reason to soften it. The 10-year is near 4.8%. The dollar is at 99.70. Gold dropped $113 Tuesday with a war bid sitting right in front of it. That tells you which trade the market is running.
Gold is pressing into the intermediate retracement zone at $4,319.60 to $4,216.06 with the swing bottom at $4,311.04 right inside it. The 50-day moving average sits at $4,216.08 below that. The 200-day break from Friday started this move. Tuesday’s $113 drop accelerated it. The retracement zone is the first place value buyers showed up on the last pullback. Below it, the broader support area runs down to $3,942.10.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Failure Below $4,311 A decline below the recent higher swing low of $4,311 would signal a reversal of that advance and a failure of support at the trendline. That would increase the chance of a test of the prior lower swing high and the top of a consolidation bottom range at $4,203, along with the 50-day moving average near $4,216. Falling back below the uptrend line would put gold in a more vulnerable position, as it would begin to negate recent bullish price behavior that included the reclaim of key moving averages and a downtrend line two weeks ago.
Upside Case If Buyers Return If gold can continue to hold above support at $4,311 and then strengthen, another leg up toward the next higher target zone near $4,774 comes into play. Initial signs of strength would appear above the swing high of $4,450 and then the 200-day moving average, currently at $4,532. Given the decisive three-day decline in gold, however, support looks likely to be tested further before there are signs of buyers. Until they appear, Tuesday’s break below the moving averages still frames the near-term risk: the same confluence that absorbed the selloff must hold, or the August recovery begins to unwind.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
That’s the view of Ned Davis Research Chief Alternative Strategist John LaForge.
Granted, he didn’t say “forever,” but that’s the implication of his comments on Kitco News.
“I think prices peak when we learn how to deal with the debt situation. The longer we let it go, and we don’t pay this stuff back, and we keep piling all these debts up, the higher gold prices can go.”
Given that nobody is willing to do what it takes to “deal with the debt situation,” gold prices will ostensibly go up forever, or until the fiat system finally implodes.
“All I know is the trend is up until we deal with government debt,” LaForge said. “I think we can still see multiple years of higher prices because I don’t get the sense at all that, globally, politicians and leaders want to deal with it.”
He’s right.
Here in the U.S., the government continues to spend over half a billion every single month despite $40 trillion in outstanding debt. So far in fiscal 2026, Uncle Sam has spent $6.28 trillion. That’s a 3.3 percent increase compared to the same period last year.
A 3.3 percent increase in spending might not sound significant. But weren't we told there would be spending cuts?
DOGE seemed promising, but once the headlines faded, spending continued unabated. The “Big Beautiful Bill” cut some spending but added more.
So, despite some non-specific talk about “spending cuts,” there seems to be little to no commitment to tackle runaway spending in Congress or the White House. In fact, the powers-that-be constantly find new reasons to spend money, whether it is a crisis at home or a war overseas.
LaForge said he doesn’t see any off-ramp in the future.
“There’s no way to pay this thing beyond just debasing everything. This is the biggest tailwind gold has had.”
In fact, analysts call the pivot from dollar-denominated assets to gold and silver the “debasement trade.”
Even after gold’s meteoric rise of the last couple of years, LaForge said there is still plenty of room to run higher. In fact, he said he thinks we are in the early stages of a broader commodity “super-cycle.”
“We have plenty of room for this thing.”
Central banks apparently see the writing on the wall. They are piling up gold.
LaForge characterized the yellow metal as one of the few “bearer assets” that can be owned outside the credit system. A bearer asset is defined as a financial or digital item that belongs entirely to whoever physically holds or controls it, with no registration or official record of ownership.
That means gold carries no counterparty risk.
“There just aren’t many bearer assets that you as a central bank can hold where everyone in the world pretty much agrees, if you sent them a bar of gold, they’d say, ‘All right, I’ll take payment for that,’” LaForge said.
Could this be a historical moment for gold?
LaForge said he thinks so, saying, “Gold has such a unique time in history.”
“This is the time it’s all coming together.”
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Gold (XAU/USD) price collapses over 2.30% on Tuesday as the Middle East conflict escalates, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes, while US economic data was mixed but moved to the back seat amid geopolitical tensions. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,342 after reaching a high of $4,461.
XAU/USD slides as Hormuz escalation fuels Oil, yields and Fed risksRecently, newswires reported explosions in Southern Iran, while US President Donald Trump confirmed that the US Air Force launched strikes aimed at trimming Tehran’s capabilities to launch missiles and to add sea mines to the Strait of Hormuz, which, according to Trump, “currently has no mines (They have been completely removed or detonated!).“
This pushed US Treasury yields higher, particularly the 10-year benchmark note, which rose nearly four basis points to 4.792%. This is due to the jump in Oil prices, as West Texas Intermediate hit a high of the day near $90.00 per barrel and currently sits with gains of over 4.20%.
Last week, bullion prices edged lower following hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at his Jackson Hole speech, in which he reassured that if inflation remains stubbornly high, then the central bank has “work to do.”
That statement triggered a U-turn on money markets. Before Warsh’s speech, the odds for a rate hike at the September meeting were below 40%. At the time of writing, Prime Terminal data indicate a 71% chance of an interest rate increase and a 29% chance of rates remaining unchanged.
Source: Prime TerminalEarlier, US data showed that business activity in the manufacturing sector cooled, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI in August was 54.6, down from 55.6 in July and below estimates of 55.2. Other data included the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for July, which showed steady hiring, with vacancies increasing to 7.217 million, below forecasts of 7.3 million.
Ahead, the US economic docket will feature the release of the Fed’s Beige Book, jobs data, the ISM Services PMI for August, followed by the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold sinks below 100-day SMA, eyes on $4,300From a technical standpoint, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict accelerated Gold’s downtrend. On its way down, XAU/USD breached key support levels, including the $4,400 figure and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,365, exacerbating a breakout below $4,350.
Of note, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which was bullish, shifted bearish amid a vertical drop, indicating that sellers are gaining momentum.
For a bearish continuation, bullion must achieve a daily close below $4,350. Below is the low of the day (LOD) at $4,326, followed by the $4,300 mark. Once hurdled, the next area of interest is the 50-day SMA at $4,215.
On the other hand, Gold could shift to neutral if the yellow metal clears the 100-day SMA at $4,365, which would open the path to reclaiming $4,400.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the forex market over the 50+ years since the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971, ushering in the modern foreign exchange market.
Limited downside ahead for the Canadian Dollar, but the US-Canada rate gap should keep USD/CAD supported below 1.40 say analysts. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate traded around 1.3902 on Tuesday, recovering from an overnight low near 1.3846.
Scotiabank says the Canadian Dollar continues to hold up well despite volatile Fed expectations and renewed trade uncertainty.
“CAD resilience in the face of volatile Fed expectations and the latest round of trade uncertainty is impressive and reaffirms our view that there is limited downside potential in the CAD currently.”
The bank’s equilibrium estimate has edged up to 1.3920, largely because front-end US-Canada swap spreads have widened.
“Spot has spent the past week trading at or a little below our estimated fair value,” Scotiabank said.
The problem for a stronger Canadian Dollar is still the rate gap.
“Equally, however, scope for gains is curtailed by the wide rate gap.”
Image: USD/CAD 48h chart The Bank of Canada is expected to leave rates unchanged this week, while Friday’s jobs report is forecast by Scotiabank to show employment rising by around 15,000.
Technically, the bank remains neutral.
“The USD closed out last week on a firm note and reversed back through the August bear channel,” although daily and weekly momentum signals remain Dollar-bearish.
Scotiabank sees 1.3980/1.4000 as firm resistance, with support at 1.3845 and 1.3820/25.
That leaves USD/CAD caught in a fairly narrow tactical range: the Dollar can extend its rebound towards the upper 1.39s, but Scotiabank does not see much justification for a sustained break above 1.40 while the Canadian Dollar continues to outperform its fundamental benchmark.
Canadian Dollar Prices: This Week USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD +0.69%+0.84%+0.64%+0.43%+0.05%+1.22%+1.25%EUR-0.69% +0.15%-0.06%-0.26%-0.64%+0.52%+0.55%GBP-0.84%-0.15% -0.20%-0.41%-0.78%+0.37%+0.41%JPY-0.63%+0.06%+0.20% -0.20%-0.58%+0.58%+0.61%CAD-0.43%+0.26%+0.41%+0.21% -0.38%+0.79%+0.82%AUD-0.05%+0.64%+0.79%+0.58%+0.38% +1.17%+1.20%NZD-1.21%-0.52%-0.37%-0.58%-0.78%-1.15% +0.03%CHF-1.24%-0.55%-0.40%-0.61%-0.81%-1.18%-0.03% The FX heat map compares how Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Swiss Franc, where Canadian Dollar made its strongest advance. Data comparing prices today (01/09/2026 16:36 UTC) and daily close on 25/08/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
