October is coming out of the rate trade. December is not.
September producer prices rose 6.3% from a year earlier, the largest annual increase since 2022. Wednesday’s CPI report showed consumer prices up 0.6% for the month and 3.7% from a year earlier.
FedWatch puts the chance of a December rate increase at 90.4%. The market assigns a 77.1% probability to a quarter-point move and a 13.3% chance of a half-point increase.
The Fed may wait this month. Silver still has to trade through the rate decision that is being pushed into December.
What to Watch
The dollar pullback gave silver a bounce, but the 10-year yield recovery kept it small. December still carries a 90.4% chance of a rate increase after the hot PPI and CPI reports. That is the part of the rate trade that has not gone away.
Spot silver remains inside Wednesday’s range with the main trend down. The move over $58.43 has to hold if counter-trend buyers are going to take control. A break under $55.40 brings the July 17 bottom at $54.78 back into play.
December Comex Silver futures are also below their midpoint at $58.655. Buyers have to recapture that level to put the $61.745 swing top back in front of the market. A failure to do that leaves the recent $55.56 low exposed.
USD/CAD Forecast: Scotiabank Sees Little Support Before 1.40
The Canadian Dollar is recovering as US yield support fades, but Scotiabank's fair-value estimate now sits close to the market after USD/CAD retreat.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate slipped further on Friday, with FX strategists at Scotiabank warning of little technical support before 1.40 after the pair broke below 1.4200.
USD/CAD traded near 1.4152 at the time of writing, down 0.29% from Thursday's close and almost 0.9% below Monday's closing level.
Latest-Exchange Rates:
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.41525 (-0.29%)
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.889388 (+0.30%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.592321 (+0.04%)
Scotiabank's latest short-term assessment is neutral/bearish.
Describing the earlier North American session, the bank said: "The CAD is entering Friday's NA session with a modest gain, up 0.2% vs. the USD while showing losses on the crosses against most of the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD weakness and a market tone that is suggestive of risk appetite."
That leaves the Canadian currency vulnerable to a reversal in the wider Dollar sell-off, even as domestic interest-rate expectations offer more support.
Image: USD to CAD exchange rate performance over this trading week.
Canadian rate expectations narrow the US advantage
Scotiabank links the improved domestic support to the bond market:
"Rate expectations have firmed modestly on the week, delivering a welcome narrowing in US-Canada yield spreads in a manner that has pressured our USDCAD FV estimate over the past week or so. FV is currently estimated at 1.4140, largely closing the gap to spot."
A smaller US yield advantage can reduce the incentive to hold US Dollars rather than Canadian Dollars.
But at 1.4140, the bank's fair-value estimate is only around 12 pips below the latest market rate, leaving little further Canadian Dollar upside on that measure alone.
A decline to 1.40 would therefore go beyond the adjustment implied by its current valuation estimate.
The Bank of Canada's next decision and Monetary Policy Report are due on 28 October.
In its morning assessment, Scotiabank said "markets are currently pricing 9bpts of tightening with 23bpts expected by December."
That indicates some tightening is anticipated this month, with almost a quarter-point increase priced cumulatively by December, rather than a confirmed decision to raise rates.
Friday's housing starts release showed construction rising 3% in September to an annualised 248,896 units, although the six-month trend was virtually flat.
Limited support before 1.40, with political risk ahead
The chart assessment points to more room for a decline than the valuation model.
Scotiabank says "the recent bearish turn in USDCAD is notable, with a sharp reversal from local peaks around 1.4300."
"The extension below 1.4200 is important, with a move that has seen a sharp moderation in bullish momentum dragging the RSI back to the neutral threshold at 50."
The Relative Strength Index measures momentum, so a reading near 50 suggests the previous upward impulse has faded rather than that the pair is already oversold.
The latest assessment follows our earlier coverage of Scotiabank's concerns about stretched USD/CAD momentum.
Scotiabank says: "We see limited support between current spot and 1.40. Resistance is now expected above 1.4200."
A sustained rebound above that resistance would weaken the case for an immediate slide towards 1.40.
The downside reference is roughly 1.1% below the current rate, although Monday's Alberta vote could complicate the Canadian Dollar's progress.
Scotiabank also warns: "Near-term domestic risk is elevated into Monday's Alberta vote on the possibility of a future referendum."
The provincial government's explanation of the separation question makes clear that voters are choosing whether to begin the legal process for a later binding referendum: "The referendum question does not directly trigger Alberta separating from Canada."
USD/CAD Exchange Rate FAQ
Could USD/CAD fall to 1.40?
Scotiabank sees limited technical support before 1.40, but this is a downside reference rather than a dated forecast target.
Where is USD/CAD resistance?
Scotiabank expects resistance above 1.4200 following the reversal from local peaks around 1.4300.
What is Scotiabank's fair-value estimate?
The bank estimates fair value at 1.4140, close to Friday's market rate of 1.4152.
The bond purchases coming out of Washington say two different things depending on who is listening. Stock traders read lower financing costs. Gold buyers read that government debt needs more support. The Dow Jones vs. Gold argument rests on that split, and this week's market movement showed why pessimism about fiscal policy doesn't always beat rising yields.
When the Treasury expanded its long-dated buybacks, that trade got a boost at first. But by September 29, yields were rising once more while gold bounced off a steep selloff. The US30/XAU comparison now depends on two questions: does the intervention produce durable relief, and do investors believe in the process itself?
The rescue has a credibility costThe World Gold Council’s August analysis recorded lower yields and a softer dollar, with gold rallying 3% around the August 19 buyback announcement. It also drew a line between Treasury intervention and actual yield-curve control. Making the market run more smoothly does not equal a commitment to cap bond yields.
This distinction carries weight. Buybacks give investors holding older Treasuries another exit. They leave persistent deficits untouched and promise nothing about future demand. So the fiscal reading becomes a market call: some traders see improved liquidity, others see signs that absorbing government debt is becoming harder.
Companies in the Dow would welcome a lasting drop in borrowing costs, easing refinancing strain and supporting equity values. The same move can support bullion by strengthening demand for an asset outside Washington’s debt promises. Both can rise initially, while the Dow Jones vs. gold correlation can shift as financing costs, earnings expectations, and demand for monetary protection change.
This week, yields challenged both sidesThe DJIA chart shows the buyback expansion hasn't protected stocks from renewed pressure in the Treasury market. On September 29, the DJIA price ended at 51,349.92, a 0.26% decline. Ten-year Treasury yields hit 5.293% during the session, and 30-year yields reached 5.6206%, as Reuters’ equity market report shows. Higher borrowing costs still weigh on Dow Jones performance even after the expansion.
The gold price chart muddies the fiscal warning as well. Spot bullion changed hands at $4,142.89 per troy ounce at 17:55 GMT on September 29, climbing back after a nearly 4% drop the day before. Reuters’ gold report tied that selloff to a firmer dollar, higher yields, and bets on more Federal Reserve tightening.
That reversal is why gold price volatility matters here. Fiscal anxiety can support bullion over time, while higher yields can still exert downward pressure by increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. A bullish gold price prediction built only around buybacks overlooks that conflict.
US30 vs XAU: Relief must outlast the announcementThe Versus Trade US30 XAU framework lines up two different reactions to American financial policy. A sustained decline in yields plus resilient earnings and a stable dollar would make the Dow's relative case stronger. Falling yields paired with dollar weakness and persistent fiscal distrust could tilt toward bullion.
People typing "Which is better, the Dow Jones or Gold?" or “Should I invest in Dow Jones or Gold?" are turning a conditional contest into a permanent either/or. This week gives no verdict like that. Even a term like “gold price investment” hides the difference between a long-term allocation and a short-term response to policy.
For anyone trying to trade Dow vs gold, the signal that counts is if the relief outlives the announcement. This week's gold price forecast still depends on yields and the dollar. Washington can step in as a buyer for older bonds. It can't buy investor confidence on the same timetable.
Gold tests its $4,000–$4,200 demand zone as falling Treasury yields offer potential relief, while persistent inflation keeps the recovery uncertain.
Gold vs Yields
Gold has a fundamental assessment with a notable contrast. Yesterday’s stronger PPI report was followed by the daily Treasury observation of lower nominal and real yields. This evidence supports a discussion of competing forces in the gold market, but it does not establish that PPI caused the yield decline.
The U.S. Treasury’s 10-year constant maturity par yield fell to 2.78% on Thursday from 2.84% on Wednesday. These are daily estimates from the inflation-protected yield curve rather than live quotes, but they do give you an idea as to how the bond market is behaving.
The interpretation that I take away from this is that the lower real yield potentially reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. An investor comparing bullion with inflation-protected government debt now faces a slightly smaller quoted real return on that asset. The level remains positive, however, so the interest-income competition has eased rather than completely disappeared.
The U.S. 10-year real yield fell from 2.95% on October 5 to 2.78% on October 15, following a gradual decline in mid-October.
Gold’s relationship with yields will vary at times, as liquidity and demand for protection can change. Nominal rates also declined. The 2-year Treasury par yield fell from 4.82% to the 4.77% level, and the 10-year fell from 5.19% to 5.10% between October 14 and October 15. The broad decline differs from the mixed maturity movement seen during the previous day. It is a change in the financing backdrop, but does not necessarily identify a single cause.
Inflation remains the counterweight. BLS published September PPI on Thursday, with final demand prices increasing 1.3% monthly after seasonal adjustment and 6.3% annually before adjustment. The measure excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.5% monthly and 5.0% annually. September readings are preliminary, and earlier months were revised.
For gold, persistent producer-price pressure can support interest in purchasing-power protection while complicating expectations of monetary easing. These channels can coexist at the same time and have been seen from time to time in the markets. The question now is whether future inflation pushes real financing costs higher or whether demand for protection remains strong enough to outweigh them.
The real-yield measure also needs to be distinguished from a simple subtraction of current CPI inflation from a nominal bond yield. The Treasury series comes from inflation-protected securities at a fixed maturity. This makes it a useful financial benchmark, but it is neither a forecast of gold’s return nor a complete measure of every investor’s expected purchasing-power gain.
The Wednesday CPI release provides separate consumer-price evidence. September headline CPI increased 0.6% monthly, seasonally adjusted, and 3.7% annually unadjusted. Core CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. Producer and consumer prices cover different baskets and transactions in the U.S. economy, so their rates are not added together, nor are they treated as interchangeable.
The last Federal Reserve decision was the September 16, 25-basis-point increase in its target range to 3.75% to 4%. The statement also emphasized elevated inflation and restoring price stability. That existing decision is distinct from any expectation about the next meeting scheduled for October 27 and 28.
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecastsAs things stand right now, the Fed funds watch tool still believes that the Federal Reserve will be on hold for this month. Import prices are due today in New York, followed by industrial production. Neither has massive influence on the market, but they become part of the bigger puzzle for figuring out inflationary pressures.
The more supportive combination would be a continued easing in real yields alongside evidence that inflation is contained without a sharp deterioration in economic activity. A renewed rise in real yields would challenge that interpretation. If inflation and activity send conflicting signals, gold may face competing protection and financing-cost influences.
Technical Analysis
Gold futures trade near $4,198, testing $4,200 resistance while holding above $4,000 support. The $4,288 and $4,319 EMAs remain overhead.
Gold is testing the top of a major demand zone that extends from $4,000 to $4,200. This is a market that remains very noisy and very choppy, but it is in an area that, if yields can ease a bit, could be enticing for bulls.
Short-term pullbacks continue to look like short-term buying opportunities, but a breach below the $4,000 level would, in fact, have me thinking things get much more bearish.
USD/JPY rate is stuck between 157.40 and 159.00, caught between high US bond yields and worries about Japanese currency intervention. This long period of consolidation suggests a cautious global risk outlook. Markets aren't strongly risk-on or risk-off, but waiting for clearer policy direction. For a sustained move to happen, new economic catalysts are needed. If the pair closes above 159.00, it would aim for 160.00. The USD/JPY currency pair spent much of October locked in a tight range, generally holding within 157.40 and 159.00.
This sideways action contrasts sharply with the year’s earlier, more volatile trends. It prompts questions about the factors currently stabilizing the pair and whether a decisive break is likely in the coming week.
What’s Keeping the Pair Contained? A few opposing forces are pulling at the pair. The substantial interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan keeps propping up the dollar. Even with some recent shifts in policy outlooks, this rate difference remains wide enough to fuel carry trades, stopping the yen from gaining much ground.
At the same time, Japanese officials have shown they’re sensitive to the pair nearing 160. Warnings from financial leaders and the market’s memory of past interventions have reliably kept upward moves in check, especially around the top of the current range.
Japan’s Finance Minister said Tokyo and Washington are on the same page and ready to act quickly. This warning isn’t taken lightly. A prior coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention caused the yen to jump, reaching 155 after being above 163. About half of those gains later faded. Now, market players see 160 as a significant level. Sell orders are clustered around 158.20 and 158.35.
Support for the range’s bottom comes down to central bank policy timing. The interest rate difference between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains quite large.
With U.S. 10-year Treasury yields staying high after stronger-than-expected inflation numbers, holding U.S. dollars offers a clear yield advantage through carry trades compared to the yen’s low yields. This yield difference helps cushion against sharp drops and maintains a solid floor around 157.40.
U.S. inflation data is high, yet that hasn’t changed market expectations much for an immediate Fed rate hike. Chances of an October increase are about 40% or less.
The BoJ, however, isn’t reportedly planning a rate change in October, even though markets see an 88-90% chance of a December hike. This situation holds back the dollar’s climb and gives the yen little reason to strengthen much right now.
Could We See A Breakout Next Week? A breakout of the 157.40-159.00 channel next week is possible, but it’d probably need a major fundamental event.
Upcoming U.S. producer prices and speeches, including one from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, might cause some short-term price swings. These usually reverse quickly, though. There aren’t any big economic events scheduled for next week that look like they’ll really move the market.
Without any big triggers, the market will probably just keep moving within its current range. Traders are focusing on range-bound strategies ahead of the central bank meetings later in October.
What’s keeping USD/JPY below 159.00?
Japan’s warnings and a previous joint intervention with Washington make traders wary of pushing the pair toward 160.
What does the sideways pattern tell us about global risk sentiment?
This sideways movement suggests a cautious, wait-and-see attitude. Investors aren’t finding strong reasons to lean into either risk-taking or risk-aversion, holding out for clearer signals from major central banks.
When is a breakout more likely?
A breakout will likely happen around the Fed’s October 27-28 and BoJ’s October 29-30 meetings. Next week seems pretty calm, with few major catalysts on the schedule.
Silver rebounds from its $55–$60 demand zone as falling Treasury yields offer relief, although industrial demand and inflation risks remain unresolved.
Silver
Today, silver is entering the market with a somewhat easier financing backdrop, but an industrial-demand argument that still needs confirmation. Yesterday’s Treasury tables showed lower yields across key maturities. Today’s U.S. industrial production report, scheduled for 9:15 a.m. Eastern, can refresh the activity evidence as far as industrial demand is concerned.
The 2-year nominal Treasury par yield declined to 4.77% yesterday from 4.82% a day earlier. The 10-year nominal yield fell to 5.10% from 5.19%. The interpretation that I take away from this is that lower competing returns can ease one headwind for non-yielding investment positions and inventory financing for a market such as silver.
Real Yields
Real yields moved in the same direction. Treasury’s 10-year inflation-protected constant-maturity par yield declined from 2.84% to 2.70%. This is going to potentially improve the relative appeal of holding metal without contractual income. The relationship is conditional, though, because industrial activity, physical availability, and investment preferences will sometimes outweigh changes in financing costs.
PPI Shows Conflicting Info
Inflation remains an important opposing consideration. The September PPI report published on Thursday showed final-demand prices rising 1.3% monthly, seasonally adjusted, and 6.3% annually, unadjusted. Final-demand goods increased 2.6% monthly, services 0.8%, and energy 10.8%. The data are preliminary and describe prices, not the volume of goods produced or the amount of silver consumed.
The PPI measure excluding food and energy increased 0.7% monthly. Excluding trade services as well reduced that figure to 0.5%. The distinction prevents different definitions of underlying inflation from being confused in policy discussion.
This distinction matters for silver’s well-known dual role. A producer receiving higher selling prices may be experiencing healthy demand, constrained supply, or even higher costs. The possibilities have different implications for metal purchases. It would therefore be premature to call the PPI increase evidence of a surge in industrial silver demand, as higher prices can coexist with pressures on margins and purchasing power.
Silver Price Forecast
Every new Silver analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
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Fed Raised 25 Basis Points. Will They Raise More?
The latest available Federal Reserve production report is from September 18 and covers the month of August. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3% that month, while total industrial production was unchanged. The manufacturing index stood at 98.2, with 2017 equaling 100, compared with 98.4 in July. Today’s new release can test whether that setback continued. A stronger reading would improve the broader activity backdrop, but it would still not directly measure overall industrial silver orders.
U.S. manufacturing output increased from 97.4 in March to 98.4 in July before slipping to 98.2 in August, according to Federal Reserve data.
Silver’s electrical and electronic uses provide a structural reason to monitor manufacturing. USGS documents those applications and the metal’s conductivity. The background explains the relevance of industrial indicators. It does not establish that demand in every application is expanding today, though. One place you could see a claim about more demand could be solar-related consumption, but that remains unclear.
Yesterday’s PPI Report
Yesterday’s inflation information also needs to be distinguished from policy. The Federal Reserve’s latest decision on September 16 was to raise its interest rate 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The next decision is still up in the air, but it does look as if the market believes the Federal Reserve is likely to hold.
The first scheduled data catalyst today is import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. in New York, and industrial production follows at 9:15 a.m. The former can inform the discussion of external price pressures. The latter provides a more direct test of output. Both will be monitored carefully.
In analytical terms, improving activity alongside stable or declining real yields would offer a more constructive combination, rather than either development by itself. Weaker activity and renewed yield increases would make things difficult for silver. The mixed result could leave it moving between its monetary characteristics and its industrial ones, making unsupported single-factor expectations unhelpful.
Silver Is Rallying Early on Friday
Silver futures trade near $57.93, holding above $55 support but below $60 resistance.
It looks like the continued bounce from the crucial $55 level is in play. There is a range between $55 and $60 that seems to be significant demand, and with yields dropping the way they have over the last couple of days, silver does have a little bit of a boost behind it at the moment.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Fits fresh monthly high as bulls retain control above 1.3265The GBP/USD pair attracts some follow-through buyers for the second straight day on Friday, recovering further from the year-to-date low, around the 1.3135 region, touched earlier this week. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 1.3325 area, or a fresh monthly peak during the early European session, and is supported by a combination of factors.
Despite hot US inflation figures, investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates unchanged at the next policy meeting, later this month. Expectations were reaffirmed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's neutral remarks earlier today, which, along with the recent sharp decline in US bond yields, dragged the US Dollar (USD) to a one-and-a-half-week low. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues to be underpinned by hawkish remarks from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and stronger UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which further contributes to the bullish tone surrounding the GBP/USD pair. Read more...
British Pound gathers strength to near 1.3300 on Fed policy uncertaintyThe GBP/USD pair gains traction to around 1.3300 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) amid hawkish remarks from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and stronger UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.
Bailey said on Friday that soaring energy prices so far appear to be having limited wider effects on British prices, but it is too soon to draw firm conclusions about how strong such second-round effects will be. Read more...
Euro still hovering around downtrend resistance line as drop pressure still affect market As long as market holding trades below resistance 1.1240-80 the drop pressure may sustain toward target and support 1.1065 which in turn may push for rebound correction Above 1.1350 more advance is likely Below 1.1065 more drops is likely SUPPORT RESISTANCE […]
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Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Gold managed to hit rebound correction again and closing from resistance zone 4200-35 again As we see over the chaart, market may hold chance for some trading inside this zone Above 4235 more advance toward 4315 is likely Below 4065 more drops toward 4000 is likely SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 4130 4200-35 LEVEL2 4065-80 4275 […]
EUR/USD holding above the psychological 1.11 support level, alongside a daily RSI rebound from oversold conditions last seen in 2015. The recovery remains restrained below 1.1260.
GBP/USD holding above the 1.3130 support and within the boundaries of a sideways consolidation that has been in place since November 2025.
The DXY pulling back from an 8-month resistance and the psychological 103 level after daily RSI reached overbought conditions last seen in 2023.
Together, these signals highlight key confirmation and invalidation levels for potential rebounds across the FX market. The outlook remains sensitive to inflation and energy prices, with US CPI rising to 3.7% in September and crude oil holding in neutral-to-bullish territory above $90.
DXY Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
After forming a bearish divergence alongside daily RSI overbought conditions last seen in 2023, the DXY pulled back from the 103 resistance level and resistance connecting higher highs since March 2026. This may confirm potential bullish rebound setups in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
For the DXY, the key confirmation zone for a sustainable bearish reversal is around 101–100.80. This area aligns with the rising support connecting higher lows from January to August 2026. A break below this support zone would strengthen the case for a neutral-to-bullish outlook across the currency pairs.
For now, the outlook remains neutral, given the risks from crude oil, geopolitics and inflation.
On the upside, a move back above 102.60 and 103 would reassert the bullish bias, with 103.50 and 105 as the next potential levels.
Dollar Pairs in Perspective: USD/CHF, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and DXY
Source: TradingView
Several short-term reversal setups across the major dollar pairs may help put the DXY’s pullback into perspective:
USD/CHF: Price is pulling back from the 2023–2026 support-turned-resistance zone, which also aligns with the target of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, near 0.84.
USD/CAD: The pair has consolidated after briefly stretching above its yearly highs below 1.43. A break above the psychological 1.43 level would discard the bearish reversal setup.
USD/JPY: The pair is consolidating below 159, raising the risk of a double-top reversal on the four-hour chart.
The respective invalidation levels for these bearish reversal setups are 0.84 for USD/CHF, 1.43 for USD/CAD and 159 for USD/JPY. For the DXY, the key invalidation level is 103.
EUR/USD Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
EUR/USD is struggling to recover above the descending trendline near 1.1260, drawn across the lower lows from July 2025 to September 2026. Weekly RSI is rebounding from oversold conditions last seen in 2025, while daily RSI is recovering from oversold conditions last seen in 2015. These signals are lifting the potential for a sustainable bullish reversal, but price confirmation is still needed.
A break back above 1.1260 would bring the 1.1380–1.1400 zone into focus as the next key resistance. Clearing that area would strengthen the case for a move toward the August highs and help sustain the broadening formation that has been developing since July 2025.
On the downside, a break below 1.11—the 50% retracement of the 2022–2026 advance—would expose 1.09. This level represents the 61.8% retracement and aligns with multi-decade resistance-turned-support, making it a potential area to watch for a rebound.
GBP/USD Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
GBP/USD is also showing a neutral-to-bullish setup, with both price action and RSI holding within the boundaries of a sideways consolidation that has been in place since November 2025.
Key support is near 1.3130, aligning with the 78.6% extension of the June 2025–November 2025–January 2026 cycle. A break below this level would expose 1.29 as the next potential support. It would also mark a bearish break below the nearly year-long consolidation, strengthening the pair’s longer-term bearish bias.
As long as GBP/USD holds above 1.3130 and within the consolidation, the neutral-to-bullish outlook remains intact across the charts. The midpoint of the range, around 1.3400–1.3480, is the next potential resistance zone, followed by the upper boundary near 1.36.
The Euro (EUR) extends its recovery move to near 1.1250 against the US Dollar (USD) in the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair started recovering after posting a fresh 16-month low near 1.1113 on Wednesday. The EUR/USD pair bounced back as the US Dollar retreated from its yearly high due to Artificial Intelligence (AI) sell-off narrative in global markets.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.30%-0.44%-0.02%-0.19%-0.58%-0.85%-0.39%EUR0.30%-0.15%0.25%0.09%-0.26%-0.56%-0.10%GBP0.44%0.15%0.42%0.29%-0.13%-0.40%0.05%JPY0.02%-0.25%-0.42%-0.14%-0.53%-0.78%-0.35%CAD0.19%-0.09%-0.29%0.14%-0.37%-0.71%-0.21%AUD0.58%0.26%0.13%0.53%0.37%-0.28%0.19%NZD0.85%0.56%0.40%0.78%0.71%0.28%0.48%CHF0.39%0.10%-0.05%0.35%0.21%-0.19%-0.48%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, revisits the six-week low near 101.67.
Dollar’s AI tailwind seen as emerging vulnerability in US-centric risk-off shocksStrategists at OCBC highlight that AI-linked investment has become a key support for the US macro and market story, noting that “AI has supported US growth, equities, yields and the USD.” However, they caution that “that strength cuts both ways.” If the investment cycle cools, “those same supports could reverse, leaving the Dollar vulnerable even in a risk-off environment.”
OCBC stresses that “the USD does not always benefit from risk aversion.” When the shock is US-centric, “as with the recent AI financing jitters, pressure on US assets can overwhelm the USD’s traditional safe-haven appeal.” This is significant, they argue, because “AI has become an important pillar of US growth resilience.”
In FX terms, OCBC describes “an unusual combination: risk-off, lower Treasury yields and a softer USD.” They emphasise that “this is not the typical global risk-off shock where investors simply rush into USD.” Instead, “if the source of stress is US-centric, Treasury safe-haven demand can push yields lower even as weaker US asset returns reduce the relative appeal of the USD.”
For now, OCBC views “the latest AI jitters as a bump rather than a break in the broader investment story.” While “concerns look overdone, but they are far from over,” the episode is seen as “a useful reminder for FX.” As they conclude, “the more the USD benefits from AI-driven US growth resilience on the way up, the more exposed it becomes if that support starts to fade.”
On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh continue to avoid delivering remarks on the monetary policy outlook, but assures that price stability is key motive.
Warsh cautious on crisis scars but highlights investment surge and AI, keeping Dollar focus on upcoming FOMC meetingsFed Chair Warsh’s speech scores 5.6/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, modestly below the 6.1/10 historical average, signaling a slightly less impactful but still policy-relevant appearance. The admission of being “over-scarred from the global financial crisis” underscores a structurally cautious bias even as Warsh points to structural growth and an investment surge, suggesting a reluctance to pre-commit on rates despite a constructive macro backdrop. Warsh’s emphasis on AI, data confidence, and upcoming field hearings reinforces a forward-looking stance, but the repeated refusal to prejudge meetings keeps Dollar traders focused on the October and December FOMC “crystallizing” decisions rather than this speech alone.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated level of 127.51, confirming that the overall policy tone remains firmly in hawkish territory despite the slightly softer speech score relative to the historical average. The combination of a high FXS Fed Sentiment Index level and a middling FXS Speechtracker score suggests that Warsh’s remarks neither escalated nor diluted the prevailing hawkish bias, leaving Dollar positioning anchored to expectations for upcoming FOMC outcomes.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1254, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it remains capped by the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1287 overhead. The pair is struggling to reclaim this dynamic barrier, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.9 stays below neutral, suggesting only modest recovery potential at this stage.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 1.1287, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease downside pressure and allow a more meaningful rebound. On the downside, with no nearby technical supports in the dataset below the market, sellers could attempt to push the pair toward fresh lows, keeping the broader bias tilted to the downside unless price decisively moves above the mentioned moving average.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Gold (XAU/USD) heads north for the second consecutive day on Friday, trading near $4,180, with bulls aiming for the $4,230 area, the top of October’s trading range. Precious metals have been boosted by lower US Treasury yields and dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials this week, which have undermined speculative support for the Greenback.
US data released on Thursday showed that September's Producer Price Index (PPI) accelerated beyond expectations in September, following an overshoot consumer inflation report in the previous day. Also on Thursday, retail consumption showed a surprising resilience in the face of escalating prices.
The data, however, failed to lift the US Dollar as market expectations of a Fed interest rate hike in October remain low. A string of Fed officials suggested that the bank will stand pat at its next meeting, awaiting more insight into the economic impact of September’s interest rate hike.
The Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, spoke at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forum in Bangkok earlier on Friday. Warsh praised the resilience of the US economy and reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to fight inflation, but failed to provide any fresh hints about the bank’s near-term path.
Technical Analysis: Key resistance at the $4,230 area comes into focus
XAU/USD trades at $4,179, maintaining a bullish near-term bias with bulls aiming for the top of the last three weeks' horizontal range, in the $4,230 area. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering in positive territory near 57, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly above zero, hinting at moderate upside pressure.
Gold might find resistance at the $4,200 round area, ahead of the key $4,230 (October 2 high). A successful break of this level confirms a bullish reversal, aiming for the September 25 high at $4,315.
On the downside, initial support is at the intraday low near $4,150 ahead of the range bottom of $4,070. A bearish reaction below here negates the bullish view and increases pressure towards the late July, early August lows around the $4,000 psychological area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold Prices for 2026-2027: Julius Baer Sees Support Beyond the Inflation Shock Gold has recovered after the US inflation shock, while Julius Baer sees central-bank demand and concerns about US debt supporting its longer-term outlook. Gold prices regained ground after Wednesday's inflation-driven decline, but the recovery faces.
Gold is being influenced simultaneously by demand for safe-haven assets, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates and US dollar movements. In the short term, it matters whether fresh US inflation data prompt a more hawkish stance from the US central bank.
Uncertainty remains over the Fed’s next move. US inflation accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year in September, while core inflation stood at 2.6%. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no clear signal of another rate hike in October, easing investors’ concerns about further tightening.
Tensions in the Middle East and concerns over public finances are supporting demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, rising oil prices could sustain inflationary pressures and complicate any move by central banks towards policy easing.
The fundamental backdrop for XAU/USD on 16 October is mixed. A weaker US dollar, lower bond yields and ETF demand support gold, while rising US inflation and the risk of a Fed rate hike limit further gains. The focus remains on fresh signals from the Fed and movements in government bond yields.
Technical analysisOn the H4 chart, gold completed a downward wave at 4,071 USD before forming an upward correction towards 4,184 USD. The market is currently continuing to consolidate below resistance at 4,231 USD. The main trend remains downward, but local structure allows the next upward move towards 4,220 USD. A close above this level would open the way for a move towards 4,231 USD. A break below the range would open the way for a decline towards support at 4,123 USD, with scope for the downward wave to continue towards 4,060 USD and 4,022 USD. The MACD indicator shows recovering positive momentum, but the signal line remains below zero, indicating that the current rise is corrective.
On the H1 chart, the market broke above 4,145 USD and developed upward momentum towards resistance at 4,185 USD. The price is now consolidating near 4,175 USD while attempting to continue higher. A close above 4,185 USD would open the way towards 4,220 USD, where buyers are expected to face a test. An alternative scenario envisages a return to 4,145 USD, followed by a decline towards 4,123 USD. A break below this support would increase the likelihood of a downward wave developing towards 4,060 USD. The Stochastic oscillator’s signal lines are above 50 and pointing up, confirming buyers’ short-term advantage. At the same time, the indicator’s approach to overbought territory increases the likelihood of a short-term correction before the next move. The priority scenario remains a test of the upper boundary of the current range, followed by an assessment of the market’s reaction to resistance.
ConclusionGold is navigating a mixed backdrop shaped by safe-haven demand, Fed uncertainty and US dollar movements. While US inflation accelerated to 3.7% in September, Fed Chair Warsh’s lack of a clear signal on an October rate hike has eased concerns about further tightening, supporting gold. A weaker US dollar, lower bond yields and ETF demand further support the metal, though rising oil prices and lingering inflation risks limit further gains. Technically, gold is in an upward correction within a broader downtrend, with resistance at 4,185 USD and 4,220 USD, and support at 4,145 USD and 4,123 USD. A break above resistance could open the way towards 4,231 USD, while a break below support would open the way towards 4,060 USD and 4,022 USD. The near-term direction will depend on Fed signals and movements in bond yields.
The USD/CHF pair attracts some follow-through selling for the second straight day on Friday, extending this week's retracement slide from the 0.8400 neighborhood, or the highest since May 2025. The downward trajectory drags spot prices below mid-0.8200s, or a two-week low during the first half of the European session, and is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
Despite hot US inflation figures, investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates unchanged at the next policy meeting, later this month. Expectations were reaffirmed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's neutral remarks earlier today, which, along with the recent sharp decline in US bond yields, dragged the USD to a one-and-a-half-week low and exerted some downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair.
Market participants, however, are still pricing in over a 90% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting amid inflation risks stemming from volatile energy prices. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz could limit USD losses and support the USD/CHF pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to conquer the 0.8400 mark and the subsequent corrective slide warrant some caution for bullish traders. Spot prices, however, hold marginally above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, at 0.8235, which offers initial trend support, while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8230 could act as a key pivotal point for the USD/CHF pair.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators remain weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 34 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero with a negative histogram. This suggests that selling pressure still dominates despite the nearby moving-average floor, though a sustained break and acceptance below the 0.8235-0.8230 confluence is needed to back the case for further losses.
The USD/CHF pair might then fall to a lower structural cushion at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement near 0.8223, where buyers could attempt to slow the decline. On the topside, a recovery would need to overcome the 23.6% retracement at 0.8289 to ease bearish pressure and open the way for a more meaningful corrective bounce.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) maintains its firm tone on Friday, buoyed by elevated Oil prices, while the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid lower US Treasury yields and dovish comments by Fed speakers. The USD/CAD pair trades at session lows just below 1.4170, under growing bearish pressure, after breaching the 1.4200 support area on Thursday.
US producer inflation data released on Thursday confirmed that price pressures remain high, and Retail Sales beat expectations. The impact of these releases on the US Dollar, however, was limited, as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials suggested earlier this week that the bank will stand pat on rates in October to assess the impact of September’s interest rate hike.
The Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, spoke at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forum in Bangkok earlier on Friday but failed to give any clear hints about the timing of the next rate hike.
Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor, Tiff Macklem, also speaking at the IMF forum, highlighted that the BoC is one of the few major central banks lagging in the global monetary tightening cycle, but that "the longer this goes, the harder that gets,” opening the door for an interet rate hike in the coming months.
Technical Analysis: bears are testing support at 1.4160
USD/CAD trades at 1.4166, retaining a mildly negative tone with bears testing support around the 1.4155 area. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) near 35 suggests waning upside momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, reinforcing the idea that rebounds are likely to struggle beneath the 1.4200 level.
If the mentioned 1.4155 (September 29 high, October 2 low) gives way, sellers are likely to be attracted by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September-October rally, in the 1.4100 area.
Upside attempts, on the contrary, are likely to be tested at the previous support area around 1.4200 (October 6, 9 and 13 lows). Above here, the focus would shift back to the 17-month highs around 1.4300, which have capped bulls several times in October
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.18%-0.28%0.05%-0.13%-0.56%-0.78%-0.22%EUR0.18%-0.12%0.20%0.03%-0.37%-0.62%-0.05%GBP0.28%0.12%0.32%0.17%-0.27%-0.49%0.07%JPY-0.05%-0.20%-0.32%-0.16%-0.59%-0.79%-0.26%CAD0.13%-0.03%-0.17%0.16%-0.42%-0.70%-0.10%AUD0.56%0.37%0.27%0.59%0.42%-0.23%0.36%NZD0.78%0.62%0.49%0.79%0.70%0.23%0.59%CHF0.22%0.05%-0.07%0.26%0.10%-0.36%-0.59%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Gold collapsed $100 when the CPI number was released on Wednesday and despite a very strong PPI number yesterday, gold recovered all of the losses.
September CPI rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, PPI surged 1.3% m/m, and retail sales jumped 0.8% versus 0.3% expected.
I don't understand why gold has recovered so strongly, especially as Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year around 5.19%–5.27% and the 30-year near 5.5%–5.67%.
But I learned many years ago to stop trying to make sense of the market!!
There is quite strong trend line resistance at 4185/4190 and also at 4210/4220.
Perhaps I could suggest selling a small amount at each level with a stop above 4230.
If we reverse again as indeed we keep doing We could fall to 4170/4165 and 4130, even 4110 is not out of the question.
With the way the market has been reacting this week we could even see 4100 and I would not rule out a retest of this week's and the October low at 4075 /4065.
So the risk should be worth the reward... I could suggest scaling out gradually and trailing stops, in the hope of capturing a big move before the weekend.
I'm only guessing but maybe this is a short squeeze before a return to focusing on the fundamentals.
We do have strong support at 4075/4065 and longs need to stop below 4055.
A break above 4230 should be a decent buy signal triggering a move to 4260/ 4270 and even 4300/4305 is possible.
The Pound-Australian Dollar rate could extend gains if Andrew Bailey reinforces November hike expectations, while weak Australian jobs data may keep the Aussie under pressure. The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate raced higher on Thursday as investors reacted to Australia’s disappointing jobs report.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.9085. Up over 0.8% from the start of Thursday’s European session.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.325544 (+0.18%)
Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD): 0.692049 (-0.83%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) retreated through Thursday’s Asian trading session after a surprise contraction in Australia’s labour market weakened expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the economy lost 39,300 jobs in September, sharply undershooting forecasts for an increase of around 20,000 and marking the largest monthly decline since February 2025.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.7%, its highest level in almost five years, after August’s reading was revised upwards.
The figures suggested that the Australian labour market may be losing momentum more quickly than previously thought, which in turn weakened expectations of further monetary tightening from the RBA, with a sharp rise in the odds of the bank leaving rates on hold through the remainder of 2026.
The Pound (GBP) trended broadly higher on Thursday after the UK’s latest GDP figures surprised to the upside, showing the economy continued to grow in August.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), monthly GDP expanded by 0.1%, defying forecasts for a 0.1% contraction.
While this marked a slowdown from July’s 0.4% expansion, the figures suggest the UK economy remains remarkably resilient despite mounting global economic uncertainty and rising energy costs.
GBP investors welcomed the unexpected expansion in growth, as it both cements bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will begin tightening monetary policy in November, while also providing a little more fiscal headroom for Chancellor John Healey’s upcoming budget.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Focus on BoE Bailey Comments Looking ahead to the end of the week, the primary catalyst of movement for the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate will likely be a scheduled speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey.
GBP investors will look to Bailey for more insight into the BoE’s policy outlook, with Sterling poised to rise if his remarks help to reinforce bets that the bank will raise rates next month.
Meanwhile, in the absence of any notable domestic data, AUD movement may be driven by market risk dynamics, with a cautious mood potentially piling more pressure on the ‘Aussie’.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has rebounded strongly from 1.1112 to close at 1.1218, more than reversing the prior day’s losses. Short-term momentum looks overextended, with the pair expected to trade between 1.1180 and 1.1240 intraday. On a 1–3 week view, EUR is now seen in a broader 1.1160–1.1280 range after breaking 1.1220 resistance.
Euro-Dollar shifts into consolidation band"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR plunged two days ago and then rebounded strongly to close at 1.1156 (-0.38%). When EUR was at 1.1180 in the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that “the recovery has scope to extend but any advance should stay within a 1.1155/1.1205 range.” We were incorrect, as EUR rose to 1.1240 before easing slightly to close 0.56% higher at 1.1218. The sharp advance appears to be overextended. This, combined with early signs of slowing momentum, suggests EUR is unlikely to rise much further. Today, we expect EUR to trade in a range between 1.1180 and 1.1240."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have been holding a negative EUR view for more than a month. After EUR dropped to 1.1112 and rebounded strongly, we highlighted the following yesterday (15 Oct, spot at 1.1180): “Further EUR weakness is not ruled out, but the decline from last month appears to be overextended, both time-wise and price-wise. However, only a breach of 1.1220 ( ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that EUR is not declining further.” EUR subsequently rose and broke above 1.1220 with a high of 1.1240. EUR has likely entered a range-trading phase, and for the time being, it is likely to trade between 1.1160 and 1.1280."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Pound-Dollar rate could extend gains if Andrew Bailey signals a November hike, while Kevin Warsh may drive fresh volatility in the Greenback. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate pressed higher on Thursday as the UK’s latest GDP figures surprised to the upside.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3251. Up roughly 0.4% from Thursday’s opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.324695 (+0.12%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.119573 (0.00%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 158.17979 (+0.14%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) The Pound (GBP) pushed higher across the board on Thursday after data showed the UK economy sustained modest growth through August.
Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported monthly GDP inched up by 0.1% in August, beating consensus forecasts for a 0.1% contraction.
While this represented a visible deceleration from July’s 0.4% expansion, GBP investors welcomed the surprising resilience in the face of steep energy costs and a turbulent international climate.
The positive reading bolstered Sterling on two fronts, solidifying market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will finally join other central banks in raising interest rates in November, while providing Chancellor John Healey with a little more fiscal headroom for his inaugural Autumn Budget.
The US Dollar (USD) faced broad-based selling pressure on Thursday as a deepening sell-off in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks prompted investors to reassess their exposure to US financial markets.
This saw the ‘Greenback’ pullback sharply from the year-to-date struck on Wednesday as USD investors remained conscious that the AI rollout has underpinned much of the US’s economic momentum in recent weeks.
However, these losses were tempered somewhat at the start of the US trading session in response to stronger-than-expected domestic producer prices and consumer spending.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: BoE Bailey and Fed Warsh in the Spotlight Looking ahead to Friday’s session, direction in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is likely to be tied to speeches by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Bailey will speak first and could extend the upside in Sterling if he more explicitly signals that the BoE is preparing to restart its hiking cycle in November.
Meanwhile, with the odds of an October rate hike from the Federal Reserve's still in flux, there’s the potential for Warsh’s speech to trigger some notable volatility in the US dollar, which is poised to skyrocket if the Chair of the US central bank should in any way signal that the door remains open for a potential hike this month.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,736.75 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,715.11 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 148,559.90 per tola from INR 148,306.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,736.75
10 Grams
127,371.70
Tola
148,559.90
Troy Ounce
396,160.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The EUR/JPY cross trades on a flat note around 177.30 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Traders remain on high alert for currency intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Furthermore, hawkish comments from a Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymaker could provide some support to the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross. BoJ policy board member Junko Koeda said that there is no need to be excessively cautious about rate hikes given that upside inflation risks remain substantial.
Koeda further stated that the Japanese central bank should adjust its policy rate in a timely manner while keeping in mind the estimated range of the neutral interest rate.
On the Euro front, Citi analysts believe French debt concerns could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to pause interest rate hikes after December, or earlier if financial stress spreads across the Eurozone. The ECB is likely to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.50% in October but raise it by 25 basis points (bps) in December as inflation runs nearly double its 2% target, according to a Reuters poll.
Japan flows highlight shifting confidence in JGBs and rising Yen headwinds from NISA-driven foreign equity buyingAnalysts at MUFG note that September was “a month of turmoil in global bond markets,” reflected in “the selling of foreign bonds by Japanese investors.” In contrast, they highlight that “foreign investors did not show the same aversion to fixed income” and instead recorded “a notable JPY 3,091bn worth of purchases of Japanese bonds.” With September also marking another BoJ rate increase, MUFG suggests this inflow “could be indicative of improved confidence in JGBs after three consecutive months of selling through to August.”
The bank also points to Japan Investment Trust data as “telling,” with “foreign equity purchases totalling JPY 1,360bn in September.” MUFG stresses that “the buying has picked up,” noting that “the 3mth sum of foreign equity purchases totalled JPY 3,949bn, a new record over a 3mth period.” They emphasise that this Investment Trust flow “captures households buying of foreign securities via NISA accounts” and that “the expanded NISA limits adopted in January 2024 continues to have a notable impact.” MUFG calculates that “annualising this 3mth flow implies an outflow of close to JPY 16trn (USD 100bn) and is an increasing negative yen factor.”
Looking ahead, MUFG argues that “providing tax-free opportunities to hold JGBs could well have an impact on the flows to foreign equity markets that is so evident today and given the scale of foreign equity purchases currently would be viewed as a clear yen positive.” Such a move “would be one policy initiative that would help the government reach a target of 40% of household financial assets being invested in domestic securities.” At present, MUFG notes that “nearly half of all household savings are parked in cash deposits and large portions of pensions and investment trusts are invested in foreign securities,” underscoring the potential for policy tweaks to redirect savings back toward domestic markets.
Technical Analysis: Negative outlookf of EUR/JPY remains intact below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/JPY keeps a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average (SMA) and well below the 100-day moving average. Price action sits in the lower half of the Bollinger envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 39 suggests subdued upside momentum and favors continued downside pressure unless resistance levels above are reclaimed.
On the topside, initial resistance level emerges at the 20-day Bollinger SMA near 178.20, en route to the 180.00 psychological level. Sustained trading above this level could pave the way to the upper boundary of Bollinger band at 180.75, with a more significant barrier at the 100-day moving average around 182.90.
On the downside, the lower limit of Bollinger band at 175.65 offers the next notable support. A clear break below this floor would open the door toward the October 20 low, 2025 of 175.34, followed by the October 2, 2025 low of 172.27.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Gold (XAU/USD) reverses a modest Asian session dip on Friday, though any meaningful appreciation seems elusive amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick. The energy-driven acceleration in US inflation lifted market bets for an imminent rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Moreover, US bond yields seem to have stabilized following Thursday's steep decline, which, along with escalating tensions in the Middle East, seems to underpin the safe-haven USD. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the precious metal as traders keenly await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday reported a broad increase in consumer prices in September as the US-Israeli war with Iran kept oil prices elevated. Adding to this, the US Producer Price Index (PPI), published on Thursday, advanced 1.3% last month, marking the largest gain since March 2022, and the yearly rate soared to 6.3%. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the core PPI climbed 0.7% and 5% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively, suggesting that inflation is broadening out beyond energy products. Investors, however, seem convinced that the Fed will keep rates unchanged later this month.
Meanwhile, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates over a 90% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting. Hence, Warsh's remarks at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group, in Bangkok, will be scrutinized for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the precious metal. In the meantime, persistent geopolitical uncertainties turn out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the Greenback.
In fact, the Iran-backed Houthi group carried out a deadly missile attack targeting the presidential palace, the seat of Yemen's Saudi-backed and internationally recognised government in the southern city of Aden. Adding to this, French Foreign Minister Pascal Confavreux confirmed that France has started deploying its military assets in Saudi Arabia. Adding to this, the US military developed strike plans that include 'mother of all bombs' against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites. This raises the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which might continue to support the USD and cap the upside for gold.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical AnalysisThe XAU/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to find acceptance above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and remains below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August upswing. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is positive and rising, hinting at strengthening upside momentum. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests mildly bullish conditions without reaching overbought territory.
However, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the $4,200 mark and the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,238 before positioning for further gains toward the next upside barriers near the 50.0% retracement at $4,325 and the 38.2% level at $4,412. On the downside, immediate support is offered by the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at $4,115, which is followed by the $4,075-$4,065 horizontal support. A convincing break below the latter would make the Gold vulnerable to challenging the Fibonacci structural floor at $3,957.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
EUR/USD remains stronger after posting modest gains the previous day, trading around 1.1230 during Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair inches higher as the US Dollar (USD) declines following recent comments from key financial leaders.
Speaking at a fireside chat with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed’s commitment to price stability while refusing to prejudge upcoming policy meetings. Warsh highlighted that an investment surge is currently the most significant upside force in the global economy.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Undersecretary for International Affairs, Erin Browne, called on the IMF to take a more assertive approach to identifying global imbalances and urged a balanced outlook considering positive US-led economic shocks. She further cautioned that sharp, disorderly currency moves could trigger volatility across broader financial markets.
However, the Greenback gained support from stronger-than-expected inflation data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) surged 6.3% year-over-year in September, its largest gain since 2022, easily topping the market consensus of 5.3% and following a revised 5.6% increase in August. On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 1.3%, significantly outpacing the 0.5% analyst estimate. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also came in hotter than expected, rising 0.7% month-over-month and 5.0% year-over-year.
Despite the elevated inflation figures, market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate decisions remained largely unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 72% probability that the central bank will keep rates steady. However, expectations for a rate increase in December have climbed to 92%.
On the European front, upside momentum for the EUR/USD pair remains constrained due to political uncertainty in Europe, particularly in France. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasized that France must address its national debt challenges through fiscal consolidation, dampening speculation that the ECB might intervene by purchasing French bonds to contain rising yields.
While Lagarde noted that energy-driven inflation has not yet spread to the broader euro-area economy, supporting a cautious policy stance, ECB policymaker Gediminas Šimkus asserted that a rate hike this month remains an option if necessary. Markets continue to price in another ECB rate increase in December.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The USD/JPY pair fades an Asian session uptick to the 158.15-158.20 region, sliding back below the 158.00 mark following Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's opening remarks at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group, in Bangkok.
In a conversation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Warsh said that the world has broadly conformed to our expectations since the September FOMC meeting. Warsh added that the Fed has made clear that it would deliver price stability and that he doesn't believe in prejudging meetings. This, along with a further decline in US bond yields, keeps the US Dollar (USD) depressed and exerts some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, traders remain on high alert amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY), which contributes to capping the currency pair. However, the growing acceptance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from escalating conflicts in the Middle East, could act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback. This could help limit losses for the USD/JPY pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failure near the 159.00 mark warrants caution for bullish traders. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (14) at 45.03 sits just below the midline and hints at neutral-to-slightly bearish momentum. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (12, 26, close, 9) remains marginally negative, suggesting that upside attempts could stay hesitant until momentum improves or the USD/JPY pair decisively breaks through 159.00.
Spot prices, however, have been finding decent support near the 157.50 horizontal zone, making it prudent to wait for sustained weakness below the said area before positioning for any further losses. The USD/JPY pair might then turn vulnerable to weaken further below the 157.00 round figure and aim towards testing the 156.50-156.45 horizontal support. Nevertheless, traders are more likely to wait for a momentum break in either direction to re-establish a stronger near-term trend for the currency pair.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around $57.80 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Friday. Silver prices advanced as a sharp selloff in equity markets triggered renewed safe-haven demand for precious metals. This capital flight into safer assets drove bond yields significantly lower, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Silver and offering broad support to the metal.
Adding to the bullish momentum, investors digested intensifying geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Tensions flared following escalating hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, alongside an incident earlier in the week where an Iranian projectile struck and sank a Singapore-flagged container ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, market participants continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path, as recent robust US economic data bolstered expectations of tighter borrowing conditions. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a roughly 72% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates steady this month, while expectations for a rate increase in December have risen to 92%.
CTA short covering in rates spills over into precious metalsAccording to TD Securities, “CTAs are extremely active cross-asset today,” with “notable short-covering across the board in the rates complex.” This shift in positioning is “helping CTAs to reverse course on yesterday's large-scale gold selling,” while “silver, platinum and palladium are also all seeing CTA short covering,” easing some of the systematic pressure that has weighed on the precious metals space.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $57.80, extending its decline below both the short-term and medium-term trend metrics, which keeps the near-term bias bearish. The price is currently under the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting that rebounds remain capped while the broader downswing persists. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.85 stays in low-neutral territory, hinting at lingering downside pressure but not yet extreme oversold conditions, while the latest FXS Fed Sentiment Index reading at 127.51 reinforces the idea that macro policy expectations still lean against precious metals.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the nine-day EMA at $58.81, where any recovery would likely stall initially, followed by a more solid barrier at the 50-day EMA near $62.46 that defines the upper boundary of the current corrective phase. With no clear nearby support levels derived from the available indicators, traders may look to recent lows and psychological round figures as provisional floors, while the bearish bias is expected to hold as long as XAG/USD trades below the clustered moving average resistance.
XAG/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Key Points:Fed rate hike risks could limit the rebound in gold and silver.Gold needs to clear $4,200–$4,250 to strengthen its recovery.Silver could fall towards $50 if support at $55 fails.Gold (XAU) trades near $4,155 an ounce in early Asian trading on Friday, while silver (XAG) consolidates around $57.20 after the rebound on Thursday. The correction in the US dollar and US Treasury yields supported both metals to recover despite hot US inflation data.
The concerns about debt at artificial intelligence companies drove investors towards government bonds. This pushed the 10-year Treasury yield towards 5.09%. The low yields make gold and silver more attractive. Silver gained over 3% on Thursday after a sharp drop of 5.98% on Wednesday after the CPI data release.
This recovery still faces pressure from persistent inflation. US producer prices jumped 1.3% in September. This is the biggest monthly increase since March 2022. The annual producer inflation reached 6.3% and keeps further rate hikes by the Fed in focus. The market is now waiting for comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the IMF meeting in Bangkok on Friday for clues about the next policy decision.
In my view, the rebound could extend if bond yields remain under pressure. But a firm warning from Warsh about inflation could lift expectations for rate hike and renew selling in both metals.
Gold Price Forecast: Rebound Faces $4,200–$4,250 Resistance
The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been consolidating in tight range between $4,220 and $4,100. This zone is highlighted in orange on the chart below. The price dropped after the US CPI data but recovered immediately towards $4,177 and now consolidates in a tight range.
These consolidations suggest that prices remain under pressure until the price clearly breaks above the $4,200 level. The 10-day moving average is now flat, which suggests neutral movement in the short term.
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A clear break below $4,100 will push prices towards the major support at $4,000. However, a break below $4,000 will push the gold price towards $3,800, which is defined by the descending trend line that stretches from the October 2025 highs.
On the other hand, a break above $4,200 will open the way for a rally towards the 50-day SMA near $4,330 and the descending trend line near $4,450. A clear break above $4,500 will likely trigger a strong rally towards $5,000.
The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows that prices have produced a rebound from the support of the ascending trend line that stretches from the June 2026 low. The 4-hour chart also shows $4,200-$4,250 as the immediate resistance. A break below the ascending trend line near $4,080 will likely push prices towards the $3,900-$4,000 area.
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Silver Price Forecast: Break Below $55 Could Expose $50
The daily chart for spot silver also shows that prices remain under pressure despite the slight rebound from the strong support of the triangle at $55 on Thursday. The price has challenged the most important support in the short term and looks to find the next move.
A break below $55 will likely trigger another drop towards the $50 region. On the other hand, a break above $64 will likely break the triangle and open the way for a rally towards the $72 area, which is defined by the 200-day SMA.
The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows that the price dropped from the key resistance at $64. The price needs to break above the $72 area to open the way for a further rally towards the $90 region. The major support in silver remains between $45 and $50, which is defined by the support of the wedge pattern.
Gold-to-Silver Ratio Rises Above 73 as Silver Lags
The gold-to-silver ratio has also rebounded and moved above the 73 region, which has been defined as the key resistance in the ratio. The strong rally in the ratio suggests that gold and silver prices have more room to drop. According to historical price action, major bottoms in gold and silver prices form when the ratio peaks.
The ratio produced peaks in March 2020 and April 2025 at the key resistance of the ascending channel pattern. The breakdown from this ascending channel pattern in November 2025 triggered a strong drop.
Now, the ratio is rebounding again to find the next resistance. Once the ratio produces a peak, gold and silver prices will likely confirm a bottom and initiate a strong rally.
What to Watch Next
Gold and silver prices remain vulnerable despite the rebound on Thursday. The drop in Treasury yields could support further gains in precious metals, but persistent inflation keeps the risk of a Fed rate hike in focus. The comments by Warsh could shape the next move by changing expectations for interest rates.
Gold needs to clear $4,200-$4,250 to strengthen the recovery, while silver needs to break above $64. A break below $4,100 in gold could expose $4,000, while a break below $55 in silver could bring $50 into view. The increase in the gold-to-silver ratio also shows that silver remains weaker than gold.
Read more: Softer Dollar Fuels Rebound After Hot CPI
About the Author
Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.
