The Pound Sterling could extend its recent gains against the US dollar as a shift in UK political sentiment improves confidence in Sterling, according to UniCredit. The Italian bank says expectations that Andy Burnham will appoint a fiscally conservative Chancellor have created a potential “wind of change” for UK assets, easing concerns over public finances and providing support for the Pound.
GBP/USD was trading around 1.3450 on Friday after rising more than 1.7% in July, recovering from June's decline and moving back above the 1.35 area earlier in the week.
Why UK Politics Could Support Sterling UniCredit says Sterling's recent strength has been driven by expectations surrounding the incoming UK government and, in particular, the choice of Chancellor.
Reports that current Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is the frontrunner for the role have reduced market concerns that Burnham could pursue a more expansionary fiscal approach.
The bank argues that fiscal credibility has become a crucial factor for investors following recent concerns over rising UK borrowing needs.
A more conservative approach to government finances could reduce pressure on gilt markets and improve confidence in Sterling.
Gilts Are Sending a Positive Signal
UniCredit highlights the reaction in UK government bonds as an important indicator of improving market sentiment.
Following reports on the expected Chancellor appointment, gilts rallied, with the 10-year UK yield falling below 4.92% after reaching close to 5.20% in May.
The bank notes that concerns over UK fiscal policy had previously pushed gilt yields higher and weighed on the Pound.
However, current market conditions are very different from the September 2022 mini-budget crisis, when unfunded tax cuts triggered a sharp sell-off in UK assets and sent GBP/USD to record lows.
Can GBP/USD Continue Higher? UniCredit believes the recent improvement in sentiment could allow further Sterling gains if expectations around the new government are confirmed.
The bank notes that GBP/USD has already moved above 1.35 for the first time since May, while EUR/GBP has fallen below 0.85 to multi-year lows.
Technical indicators suggest GBP/USD could target 1.37 if positive sentiment continues.
However, UniCredit cautions that it is still too early to determine whether this represents a lasting shift in investor positioning or simply a short-term reaction to political developments.
The Bank of England Could Add Further Support Another factor supporting Sterling is the possibility that markets continue pricing a Bank of England rate increase later this year.
UniCredit says that if expectations of a November rate hike remain in place, the summer period could prove far less damaging for Sterling than political uncertainty earlier in the year had suggested.
A combination of improved fiscal confidence, stronger gilt performance and supportive rate expectations could therefore provide further support for the Pound.
What's the Forecast for the Pound versus the US Dollar? UniCredit sees scope for GBP/USD to extend its recovery if the improving political backdrop is sustained.
The bank highlights 1.37 as the next potential target for the pair, while acknowledging that further gains depend on continued investor confidence in the new UK government's fiscal approach.
With GBP/USD currently near 1.3450, Sterling has already recovered significantly from its June lows, but UniCredit believes the recent political shift could provide further upside momentum.
GBP/USD Forecast FAQWhy is UniCredit positive on the Pound?
UniCredit believes expectations of a fiscally conservative UK Chancellor could improve investor confidence, support gilts and reduce concerns over government borrowing.
What is UniCredit's GBP/USD target?
The bank highlights 1.37 as a potential next target for GBP/USD if positive market sentiment continues.
Why are UK gilts important for Sterling?
Gilt yields and demand from investors are closely linked to confidence in UK fiscal policy. Stronger gilt performance can support the Pound by reducing concerns over government finances.
Could political uncertainty still hurt GBP/USD?
Yes. UniCredit says it is too early to confirm whether the recent move represents a lasting change in sentiment, meaning Sterling remains sensitive to developments surrounding the new government.
High Treasury Yields and Breakdown Risk Drive Bullion Sentiment Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of choppiness, a lot of noisiness. I think ultimately we are hanging on to a very important support level, and giving that up could bring in more momentum. After all, the market has taken a decidedly ugly turn over the last couple of months as non-yielding assets such as gold continue to take it on the chin.
Traders have preferred to go to the higher-yielding Treasury markets, and despite the fact that yields have slipped a little bit, they are still historically high. Because of this, the market continues to see a lot of concerns about jumping into a big uptrend without some kind of change in attitude, and external factors will need to be aligned.
This is a market that continues to see a lot of noise and concerns in general. With this, the silver market will continue to see volatile choppiness and lack of stability.
Silver Technical Analysis
Silver has slumped to fresh lows near $55, more than halving from its peak, with $50 the major historical support below. Source: TradingView. The silver market is showing signs of collapse on the weekly time frame as we have made a fresh new low, and it does, in fact, look like a market that just can’t get out of its own way. Because of this, it is going to perhaps attract longer-term traders in the sense that they may be bailing out at this point. Clearly, we have collapsed from the high as we have lost more than half of the value of silver. This is a shocking turnaround for many who got caught up in the mania last year.
That being said, the area near $50 looks to be rather supportive based on historical resistance there, going back multiple times into the 1970s. As a result, it’ll be interesting to see how the market behaves when we get down there because, quite frankly, that would be a massive level in this market to pay close attention to.
High Yields and Bearish Momentum Deepen Silver’s Decline At this point, rallies are probably going to be looked at with suspicion as we are getting fairly close to $55. High yields in the United States have a major part to play here, as it’s easier to hold a yielding asset than it is a non-yielding asset like silver. This will likely continue to be the story here in silver, just like gold as well.
Regardless, this is an ugly-looking candlestick and an ugly-looking market, which most decidedly has turned bearish over the last month or so. This is a market that has caught many people on the wrong side of the market.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Short-term Trade Levels USD/JPY has spent the past three weeks consolidating within the monthly opening range after defending multi-month trend support. The broader uptrend remains intact while above key support, but the narrowing range points to a potential breakout in the days ahead. A close above the monthly high would confirm an upside range break and shift the focus toward the next major resistance objectives. Failure to hold nearby support would invalidate the May advance and increase the risk of a broader trend reversal. With a light economic calendar, geopolitical developments and intervention rhetoric remain the primary catalysts for the next directional move. Resistance 162.57, 162.84 (key), 163.33 - Support 161.69/95 (key), 161.33, 160.37/74 USD/JPY USD/JPY closes week at an increasingly important technical juncture after spending the past three weeks consolidating within the July opening range. The pullback from the monthly highs found support at a key confluence zone, preserving the broader uptrend while allowing the pair to work off overextended conditions. With price now trading within a narrowing range, traders will be looking for a breakout to provide the next directional signal. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook, we noted USD/JPY was trading within a range, “just below resistance. Look for the breakout to offer guidance here in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 160.37 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 162 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” The range broke higher the following week with USD/JPY stretching to an intraday high at 162.84 before reversing sharply into the start of the July. The decline bounced off confluent support early in the month with price registering an intraday low at 160.48 before rebounding.
The monthly opening range remains preserved heading into the close of the week with price consolidating just above multi-month uptrend support. The focus is on a breakout next week to offer guidance here with the outlook still constructive while within this formation.
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Japanese Yen price action shows USD/JPY continuing to contract below the objective monthly open at 162.57. Ultimately, a breach / close above the monthly high at 162.84 is needed to validate a breakout of the July opening range with subsequent resistance objective eyed at the 1.618% extension of the 2025 advance at 163.33 and the 1.618% extension of the yearly opening-range at 164. Both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.
Initial support rests with the 2024 high-day close (HDC) / high at 161.69/95- losses below this threshold would invalidate the May uptrend and expose the 61.8% retracement of the monthly range at 161.33. Key support remains at 160.37/74- a region defined by the 61.8% extension of the January rally, the objective monthly low, and the 2024 high-week close. A break / daily close below this threshold would suggest more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.
Bottom line: USD/JPY has been consolidating within the monthly range, just above uptrend support, for the past three-weeks. Look for a potential breakout bias next week. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 161.69 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a daily close above 162.84 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
The economic docket is rather light next week, and the traders will be focused on a steady drip of headlines regarding the war with Iran and the transit access to the Strait of Hormuz. Keep in mind the intervention threat here remains and exposure on Yen crosses should be approached with caution here. Review my latest Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Coils Above Critical Support- Decision Time Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Resistance—Breakout Looms Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Holds Major Support—Reversal Risk Builds Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Overbought Rally Tests Major Resistance --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD trading slightly lower in quiet conditions as markets look ahead to next week’s ECB meeting, with policymakers in a blackout period and implied volatility subdued. They and consensus expect no policy change. Short-term, the Euro retains a mild uptrend, but a break of mid-1.14 support has dulled bullish momentum and could see a test of 1.1395/1.1405 support.
Pre-ECB consolidation and key supports"EUR/USD is modestly lower in quiet trade. Market attention is perhaps turning to next week’s ECB policy decision (policymakers are now in their “quiet period” ahead of the meeting) but low implied vol reflects little concern that the outcome will produce any significant surprises."
"We—and the market—expect a hold."
"Eurozone CPI was finalized at –0.1% m/m in June and up 2.8% in the year. The Eurozone reported a EUR25.1bn Current Account surplus for May. "
"Neutral/bullish—The EUR maintains a mild, short-term uptrend against the USD, but gains stalled this week in the upper 1.14s. Losses through minor support in the mid 1.14 area in late week trading have blunted near-term bullishness and may see spot edge back to test support at 1.1395/05 in the next day or so."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that weaker United States (US inflation data briefly supported Gold, but the price has slipped back below USD 4,000 per troy ounce. With markets still pricing at least one Federal Reserve rate hike and energy-price risks from the Middle East conflict, she sees limited near-term upside, though a more dovish Fed stance could later re-ignite the Gold rally.
Limited upside unless Fed shifts"Weaker US inflation data — both consumer and producer prices surprised with slower growth in June — have dampened expectations for US interest rate hikes. While the market had previously priced in nearly two rate hikes by year-end, only a single 25-basis-point rate hike is now fully priced in. However, this provided only a brief boost to the gold price. Yesterday, it slipped back below the USD 4,000 per troy ounce mark, where it is currently trading."
"In the short term, further upside potential is likely to remain limited. With the ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict and the resulting risk of another sharp spike in energy prices, expectations of interest rate hikes are likely to persist for some time."
"A correction, regardless of developments in the US-Iran conflict, is likely to occur only if the market's assessment of the Federal Reserve were to fundamentally change."
"But the picture could also shift again: Warsh, for example, is already suggesting that AI would boost productivity and therefore likely have an inflation-dampening effect. New York Fed President John Williams also recently made similar comments, referring to a long-term downward trend in inflation."
"If this view gains traction within the FOMC, it could mean that interest rate hikes are not considered necessary to combat current inflation."
"The price of gold would then likely benefit not only in the short term from the market pricing out interest rate hikes, but also from the fact that the market perceives increased inflation risks in the long term due to a significantly more dovish stance by the Federal Reserve."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
According to Al Jazeera, only three commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, marking the lowest daily transit count since May. Many ships have either halted or reversed course following recent Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and the renewed U.S. blockade on Iran-linked shipping.
Investors are now closely monitoring whether these disruptions persist. While strategic reserves helped cushion supply shocks during the first half of the year, the second half could prove more challenging. Prolonged disruptions would have broader implications for inflation, bond yields, central bank rate expectations, and key technical levels across commodity markets.
I discuss these developments in my daily MENA Market Call.
Register here.
Crude Oil Price Outlook: Dailyly Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: TradingView
WTI crude oil has rebounded nearly 20% from the $66 support area, with the recovery stalling just below $81.50, near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the June–July decline.
Price action has since entered a short consolidation phase, and its ability to hold above recent gains suggests upside risks remain intact should supply disruptions intensify and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained.
Key resistance levels If crude oil breaks above $81.50, the following levels become key:
$84.80–$85.00: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, representing a high-probability resistance zone. $89.80: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, a major barrier that would determine whether prices can resume the broader uptrend toward the yearly highs. Downside risks Failure to hold above $78, followed by breaks below $73.50 and $70, would expose $68 and $66.50 once again.
This remains a major technical support zone, aligning with:
Multi-year support dating back to 2019. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 rally. Although the recent rebound interrupted downside momentum, the broader bearish trend remains intact following the breakdown below the March–June consolidation range.
Should $66 fail to hold, downside pressure could initially extend toward $61, while a decisive break below that level would reinforce the case for a move toward the $55 objective outlined in my second-half outlook.
While oversold conditions triggered a short-term recovery, developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz will likely determine whether the rebound extends or whether the broader oversupply narrative re-emerges later this year.
Gold Price Outlook: 6-Month Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: TradingView
From a six-month perspective, gold is testing one of its most significant historical confluence zones.
Price is attempting to break below the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920–2026 secular advance. A close below 3,930 would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 3,500–3,460, a zone that acted as a major resistance area throughout much of 2025. Gold is also testing the long-term trendline connecting the major highs between 2016 and 2025. This former resistance trendline has now become a key long-term support level, reinforcing the importance of the current technical confluence. Whether gold rebounds from this area or extends its correction will likely depend on developments in crude oil and, more importantly, the evolving U.S.-Iran-Hormuz situation. A sustained geopolitical resolution could help stabilize inflation expectations, bond yields, and overall market sentiment, supporting a recovery in precious metals. Conversely, a prolonged escalation would likely reinforce inflation concerns, keep yields elevated, strengthen the U.S. dollar, and increase downside risks for gold.
The shorter-term and longer term upside scenario is illustrated in the following chart.
Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: TradingView
Despite the strong high-time-frame support zone, gold continues to trade below the descending trendline connecting the lower highs since March 2026, leaving the broader short-term bias bearish.
The current rebound remains fragile while testing the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July decline.
A sustained recovery above 4040, 4,120 and 4,200 would shift attention toward:
4,300: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. 4,420: 50% Fibonacci retracement, a level that would signal a more meaningful shift back toward a bullish trend. As long as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and crude oil remain firm, downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated, with geopolitical developments continuing to shape the broader macro outlook.
According to Al Jazeera, only three commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, marking the lowest daily transit count since May. Many ships have either halted or reversed course following recent Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and the renewed U.S. blockade on Iran-linked shipping.
Investors are now closely monitoring whether these disruptions persist. While strategic reserves helped cushion supply shocks during the first half of the year, the second half could prove more challenging. Prolonged disruptions would have broader implications for inflation, bond yields, central bank rate expectations, and key technical levels across commodity markets.
I discuss these developments in my daily MENA Market Call.
Register here.
Crude Oil Price Outlook: Dailyly Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: TradingView
WTI crude oil has rebounded nearly 20% from the $66 support area, with the recovery stalling just below $81.50, near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the June–July decline.
Price action has since entered a short consolidation phase, and its ability to hold above recent gains suggests upside risks remain intact should supply disruptions intensify and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained.
Key resistance levels If crude oil breaks above $81.50, the following levels become key:
$84.80–$85.00: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, representing a high-probability resistance zone. $89.80: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, a major barrier that would determine whether prices can resume the broader uptrend toward the yearly highs. Downside risks Failure to hold above $78, followed by breaks below $73.50 and $70, would expose $68 and $66.50 once again.
This remains a major technical support zone, aligning with:
Multi-year support dating back to 2019. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 rally. Although the recent rebound interrupted downside momentum, the broader bearish trend remains intact following the breakdown below the March–June consolidation range.
Should $66 fail to hold, downside pressure could initially extend toward $61, while a decisive break below that level would reinforce the case for a move toward the $55 objective outlined in my second-half outlook.
While oversold conditions triggered a short-term recovery, developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz will likely determine whether the rebound extends or whether the broader oversupply narrative re-emerges later this year.
Gold Price Outlook: 6-Month Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: TradingView
From a six-month perspective, gold is testing one of its most significant historical confluence zones.
Price is attempting to break below the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920–2026 secular advance. A close below 3,930 would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 3,500–3,460, a zone that acted as a major resistance area throughout much of 2025. Gold is also testing the long-term trendline connecting the major highs between 2016 and 2025. This former resistance trendline has now become a key long-term support level, reinforcing the importance of the current technical confluence. Whether gold rebounds from this area or extends its correction will likely depend on developments in crude oil and, more importantly, the evolving U.S.-Iran-Hormuz situation. A sustained geopolitical resolution could help stabilize inflation expectations, bond yields, and overall market sentiment, supporting a recovery in precious metals. Conversely, a prolonged escalation would likely reinforce inflation concerns, keep yields elevated, strengthen the U.S. dollar, and increase downside risks for gold.
The shorter-term and longer term upside scenario is illustrated in the following chart.
Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: TradingView
Despite the strong high-time-frame support zone, gold continues to trade below the descending trendline connecting the lower highs since March 2026, leaving the broader short-term bias bearish.
The current rebound remains fragile while testing the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July decline.
A sustained recovery above 4040, 4,120 and 4,200 would shift attention toward:
4,300: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. 4,420: 50% Fibonacci retracement, a level that would signal a more meaningful shift back toward a bullish trend. As long as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and crude oil remain firm, downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated, with geopolitical developments continuing to shape the broader macro outlook.
Key Points:The recent price action in precious metals has been surprising, considering the weaker dollar and the massive downside surprise in June CPI. In my view, those developments alone should have propelled gold easily above $4,100. So, what drives the current weakness? My best guess is renewed tensions with Iran. Our Gold Cycle Indicator remains deeply oversold, and I continue to believe we are approaching an important cycle low. It would take a sustained breakdown below $3,900 to support the more bearish downside target of $3,500—a scenario I still view as the less likely outcome.
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Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at 16; the most oversold since late 2022.
The Gold Cycle Indicator sits at 16, its most oversold reading since late 2022. US Dollar The dollar fell sharply after Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected CPI report (-0.4%) and retested support near 100.50. Under normal circumstances, that kind of dollar weakness should have sent gold comfortably above $4,100, but it didn’t, which I viewed as a red flag.
Precious metals likely need a sustained breakdown in the dollar below yesterday’s 100.35 low to regain upside momentum. Conversely, a sustained breakout above the short-term trendline in the dollar (101.20) could add bearish pressure on the metals complex.
The US Dollar Index has dropped back to support near 100.50, with 101.20 the short-term trendline to watch. Gold Gold posted a fresh closing low as we approach the end of the expected timing window. The weaker-than-expected CPI report and the resulting dollar weakness should have been enough to push gold well-above $4,100, but that failed to materialize. To me, that suggests the recent weakness has more to do with renewed tensions surrounding Iran.
The $3,900 level remains my line in the sand. It would take a sustained breakdown lasting more than three days below that level to activate my alternate downside target of $3,500-$3,600. Until then, I continue to watch for evidence that a meaningful bottom is forming.
Gold has printed a fresh closing low, with $3,900 the key line separating a bottoming setup from a deeper slide. Silver Silver posted fresh lows in July as it approaches the lower boundary of its target zone. A decisive breakdown below $54.00 could trigger a backtest of $50.00. If gold confirms its alternate downside target between $3,500 and $3,600, silver could slip briefly towards $45.00 in a worst-case scenario.
Silver has made fresh lows into its target zone, with $54 the support that guards the $50 level. Silver Monthly If silver fails to hold support near $54.00, it risks a retest of the breakout area around $49.50, which I would view as a very attractive long-term entry point. I’d be very surprised if prices remained below $50.00 for more than a few days or, at most, a couple of weeks.
The silver monthly chart shows price nearing its prior breakout zone around $49.50, a key long-term level. Platinum Platinum continues to hold up better than both gold and silver. A series of progressive closes above $1,700 would provide constructive evidence that a meaningful bottom is in place. If prices weaken further, major support remains near $1,500.
Platinum continues to hold up better than gold and silver, with $1,700 the pivot and $1,500 the major support. GDX Miners posted fresh lows, finishing below the lower end of my target zone. The next major support level comes in near $68.00. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to display a positive divergence, suggesting downside risk is becoming increasingly limited and supporting the view that this multi-month correction is nearing its end.
The GDX daily chart shows fresh lows into $68 support, while a positive MACD divergence hints the decline is maturing. GDXJ Juniors also posted fresh lows and are approaching the lower end of my ideal target zone. Final support comes in near $85.00 should the decline deepen. For now, I continue to watch for a reversal candle as confirmation that a meaningful bottom is forming.
The GDXJ daily chart shows juniors at fresh lows, with $85 the final major support in view. SILJ Silver juniors are trading within the target zone but are also approaching the end of the expected timing window for a cycle low. Should prices weaken further, the next and final major support level comes in near $21.00.
The SILJ daily chart shows silver juniors in their target zone, with $21 the next support if weakness extends. Conclusion Tuesday’s -0.4% CPI print and the weaker U.S. dollar should have been enough to push gold higher, reinforcing the case that a mid-year low was already in place. The fact that it didn’t suggests other bearish forces remain at work and could drive prices lower before a final bottom is established.
Overall, I continue to believe the correction that began in January is approximately 95% complete and that we are approaching an important low. However, if gold fails to hold the $3,900 level through July, I will have to acknowledge the possibility of a deeper decline towards $3,500. Under that scenario, silver could temporarily fall to around $45.00.
The bigger picture remains unchanged. I view the current correction as just a pause within a multi-year bull market that should extend into 2030, with gold ultimately surpassing $10,000 and silver rising above $300. In the near term, however, bearish sentiment appears to be reaching an extreme, suggesting we are probably closer to a bottom than most investors likely expect.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.
EUR/GBP edges higher on Friday, extending gains for a second consecutive day as traders cover short positions following the midweek sell-off. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.8501 but is still on track for a fourth straight weekly loss.
From a technical perspective, EUR/GBP faces persistent downside pressure after breaking below the multi-month support at 0.8600 on July 1, a move that pushed the cross to a one-year low.
On the daily chart, EUR/GBP trades around 0.8504 and holds below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which are clustered between 0.8617 and 0.8688.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33.5, just above the oversold threshold of 30, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 31.0 points to a strengthening downtrend.
On the upside, initial resistance appears at 0.8550, followed by the 0.8600 horizontal barrier. Beyond that, the 50-day SMA at 0.8617 and the 100-day SMA at 0.8645 could limit recovery attempts, with the 200-day SMA at 0.8688 acting as a stronger barrier.
On the downside, the next notable support sits at 0.8450. A sustained break below this level could open the door to an extension of the current bearish move.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%0.20%-0.02%-0.24%0.23%0.11%-0.14%EUR-0.06%0.15%-0.11%-0.33%0.19%0.05%-0.21%GBP-0.20%-0.15%-0.26%-0.49%0.02%-0.08%-0.36%JPY0.02%0.11%0.26%-0.23%0.26%0.12%-0.13%CAD0.24%0.33%0.49%0.23%0.49%0.36%0.10%AUD-0.23%-0.19%-0.02%-0.26%-0.49%-0.15%-0.40%NZD-0.11%-0.05%0.08%-0.12%-0.36%0.15%-0.26%CHF0.14%0.21%0.36%0.13%-0.10%0.40%0.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
GBP/USD eased toward 1.3400 as investors sought the safety of the US dollar following renewed US-Iran tensions. The British pound struggled to build on recent gains despite signs that the UK economy is stabilising and a new Labour government pledging a pro-business agenda. Markets are now looking to next week's UK inflation and employment data for clues on the Bank of England's next interest rate decision. The GBP/USD exchange rate edged lower on Friday as renewed demand for the US dollar outweighed support for the British pound from improving UK economic data and political developments.
Sterling had strengthened earlier this week after softer US inflation data weakened the dollar. However, sentiment shifted as escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran lifted crude oil prices and revived fears that inflation could remain elevated for longer.
That has driven investors back into the US dollar, leaving the pound on the defensive despite encouraging signs from the UK economy.
Why Is GBP/USD Falling Today? The main driver behind Friday’s decline in GBP/USD has been a renewed flight to safety.
The conflict between the United States and Iran has intensified, raising concerns over global oil supplies and pushing crude prices sharply higher. Rising energy prices threaten to reverse recent progress on inflation, prompting investors to reconsider expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in the near future.
The US dollar typically benefits during periods of geopolitical uncertainty because it remains the world’s primary reserve currency and one of the most widely used safe-haven assets. As demand for the greenback increased, GBP/USD came under renewed selling pressure.
Is the British Pound Overvalued Against the US Dollar? Another factor weighing on sentiment is growing concern that sterling’s recent rally may have gone too far. Analysts at ING argue that the pound is trading above its short-term fair value after markets priced in aggressive expectations for additional Bank of England tightening.
The bank believes investors have become overly optimistic about UK interest rates and expects EUR/GBP to move back toward 0.870 over the coming months, implying broader weakness in sterling.
If expectations for further Bank of England tightening continue to fade, the British pound could struggle to maintain its recent gains against the US dollar.
Will UK Inflation and the Bank of England Move GBP/USD? Attention is now turning to next week’s UK inflation and labour market reports, which could prove decisive for the direction of GBP/USD.
If inflation remains stubbornly high or wage growth surprises to the upside, investors may increase expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates elevated for longer, supporting the pound.
Conversely, weaker economic data would strengthen the case for policy easing and could add further pressure to sterling. At the same time, traders will continue monitoring Federal Reserve commentary, US inflation trends and developments in the Middle East, all of which remain key drivers of the US dollar.
GBP/USD Outlook The near-term outlook for GBP/USD will depend on which narrative dominates financial markets.
If geopolitical tensions continue to fuel higher oil prices and Treasury yields, the US dollar is likely to remain well supported. However, if UK inflation proves more persistent than expected and the Bank of England maintains a hawkish stance, sterling could recover some of its recent losses.
With monetary policy expectations evolving on both sides of the Atlantic, upcoming economic data and geopolitical headlines are likely to determine the next move in GBP/USD.
Why is GBP/USD falling today?
GBP/USD is falling as renewed US-Iran tensions have increased demand for the US dollar, while higher oil prices have raised concerns that inflation could remain elevated, supporting expectations for higher US interest rates.
Will Andy Burnham’s policies affect the British pound?
Investors are watching Andy Burnham’s economic agenda closely because government fiscal policy can influence inflation, economic growth and Bank of England interest rate decisions, all of which affect the value of the British pound.
What could move GBP/USD next?
The next major catalysts for GBP/USD include UK inflation and employment data, Bank of England policy expectations, Federal Reserve commentary and any escalation in geopolitical tensions that could strengthen demand for the US dollar.
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Gold managed to hold trades below 4100 while maintain the drop pressure over market
As we see over the chart market facing support around 3940-45 while resistances at 4017 and 4050-60 which may hold this trading zone
Below 3940 more drops may hit the market while Med-Run support still at 3886 which still protecting the advance wave
Above 4060 more advance toward 4100 and 4200 will be expected
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 3940-45 4017 LEVEL2 3886 4050-60 LEVEL3 3700 4102 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
The silver market struggled on Friday in the early part of the session, as higher rates continue to work against the value of silver in general.
Silver Technical Analysis
The silver daily chart shows price at fresh lows heading toward the key $50 level as a death cross forms. Source: TradingView. The silver market has struggled during early trading on Friday as we continue to see the downward pressure just overwhelm the market. Ultimately, this is a market that is punishing non-yielding assets due to the fact that a lot of traders can simply collect a little bit of interest coming out of the treasury markets instead of paying to store something like silver, which can be expensive.
Silver has made a fresh new low, and now many traders will have their sights set on the idea of $50 being tested. $50 is a very important level going back to the 1970s, and therefore, it does set up a very interesting spot in the market, as it had until recently been a massive resistance barrier for silver traders. This is an area that has been important, and could continue to be.
Technical Death Cross Threatens Long-Term Structural Support The fact that we broke above it and then just took off toward the $120 level without a serious pullback until recently suggests that maybe people are going to be looking at that area. I think at this point in time, any rally has to be looked at with suspicion. It’s just a market that buyers continue to get burned in.
It’s also worth noting that we are kicking off the so-called death cross, which is the 50-day EMA breaking below the 200-day EMA. That will attract a certain amount of attention in and of itself as well. This looks like a horribly bearish market, and it would take something special to turn this market around in this environment.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
GBPUSD managed to pass above resistance 1.3430 while managed to meet target 1.3510 and above
As we see over the chart, a chance for trading zone between support 1.3320-50 and resistance 1.3555 may hold the market
Above 1.3555 more advance will be expected with resistance at 1.3655
Below 1.3320 more drop will be expected with support at 1.3160
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 1.3320-50 1.3555 LEVEL2 1.3160 1.3655 LEVEL3 1.3010 1.3850 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Death Cross Confirmed as Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Bullion The US dollar could be a bit of a problem here as well; the US dollar strengthening a lot of times will work against gold. But from the structural standpoint, we are still in consolidation. The $3,900 level below is an area that had been supported as well, so it’s possible there is support between $4,000 and $3,900.
Breaking below there, then the historical support can be found at $3,500. Short-term rallies are most certainly possible, but at this point in time, the market looks like it probably needs to convince a lot of traders; it needs to prove itself, and caution will more likely be a route that a lot of traders take as we head into a weekend that almost certainly will feature Middle East headlines again.
Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Friday but lacks bullish momentum as rising Oil prices revive inflation concerns and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates later this year.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $3,992 after falling to $3,969 on Thursday, its lowest level since July 1.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) stages a comeback after falling earlier this week following softer-than-expected US inflation data. The recovery in the Greenback limits Gold’s upside and keeps the precious metal on track for a second consecutive weekly loss.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.86 after hitting a more than three-week low of 100.35 on Wednesday.
The United States (US) carried out strikes against Iran for a sixth consecutive night, while Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks on US military facilities across the Middle East.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said no Oil or gas exports would pass through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US attacks persist, according to the Tasnim news agency.
The longer the disruption to traffic through the Strait lasts, the greater the upside risks to energy prices and inflation, factors that tend to weigh on Gold.
This keeps the hawkish Fed narrative alive, even as softer US inflation data released this week prompted traders to scale back bets on a near-term interest rate hike.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in around a 73% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by December.
Recent hawkish remarks from Fed officials have also kept the possibility of tighter monetary policy on the table. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Thursday that “modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks,” adding that inflation does not appear to be heading sustainably back to the 2% target on its own.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said the recent inflation data was encouraging but added: “Inflation is too hot and above target for too long.”
Technical analysis: XAU/USD bears retain control below Bollinger mid-band
In the daily chart, XAU/USD remains under pressure, trading below the Bollinger Bands 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,072. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.12 is still below the 50 line, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 39.77 suggests the prevailing downtrend retains notable strength.
On the upside, initial resistance sits at the Bollinger middle band at $4,072, followed by the confluence of the upper band at $4,199 and the horizontal barrier at $4,200. Beyond that, the next major hurdle emerges at $4,400.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the lower Bollinger band near $3,945, before the more pronounced horizontal floor at $3,800, where sellers could look to extend the current bearish phase if the latter gives way.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
The Euro (EUR) records mild losses against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Friday. The EUR/USD pair trades at 1,1430 after being capped at 1.1480 earlier this week, extending the sideways trend, as geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices keep Euro rallies subdued.
Hostilities in Iran escalated this week, with the US military killing eight people after attacking civilian targets in Bandar Abbas on Friday, while Tehran threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another key corridor for gas and oil traffic.
The deteriorating situation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher this week. The barrel of Brent Crude is set to close the week near $85.00, about 18% above early June lows. This has offset the positive impact on the Euro of the soft US inflation data and lowered hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening.
Technical Analysis: The pair keeps looking for direction around 1.1400
The technical picture is little changed this week. EUR/USD keeps trading within a roughly 100-pip range, with momentum indicators on intraday charts showing a lack of clear bias. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is wavering near the 50 midline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips fractionally negative, together hinting at subdued momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges in the area between the mentioned range top, near 1.1480, and a previous support at the 1.1500 area (June 8 and 11 lows). A break above these levels would encourage bulls to target the June 16 and 17 highs, near 1.1620.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the July range floor, between 1.1360 and 1.1380, which, so far, is closing the path towards the year-to-date low, at 1.1324. Further down, bears might be attracted by the late-May 2025 low, at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.26%-0.39%0.34%-0.95%-0.44%-1.24%-0.10%EUR0.26%-0.13%0.63%-0.70%-0.23%-0.98%0.17%GBP0.39%0.13%0.72%-0.56%-0.09%-0.85%0.35%JPY-0.34%-0.63%-0.72%-1.37%-0.79%-1.62%-0.49%CAD0.95%0.70%0.56%1.37%0.59%-0.25%0.92%AUD0.44%0.23%0.09%0.79%-0.59%-0.75%0.31%NZD1.24%0.98%0.85%1.62%0.25%0.75%1.21%CHF0.10%-0.17%-0.35%0.49%-0.92%-0.31%-1.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The EUR/USD forecast remains biased to the downside as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin demand for both crude oil and the US dollar. Although this week’s softer US inflation readings briefly encouraged hopes that the Fed may not have to tightening after all, the renewed rise in oil prices has complicated that narrative and prompted investors to reassess the outlook. As such, they have found it difficult to justify shorting higher-yielding currencies or buying low or zero yielding assets. This narrative is unlikely to change much until there is genuine breakthrough in the tension between the US and Iran.
Dollar remains on front-foot as oil risk clouds inflation outlook This week we had some weak inflation numbers from the US, and that caused only temporary weakness in US dollar. Both consumer and producer inflation surprised on the downside, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures are gradually easing. Under normal circumstances, that would have weighed on the greenback more meaningfully. Instead, markets have been reluctant to fully embrace that view as crude oil prices continue to climb amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
Higher energy prices raise the risk that inflation proves more persistent later in the year, potentially delaying any shift towards easier monetary policy. While investors still expect inflation to moderate over the medium term, the near-term backdrop has become considerably less favourable for dollar bears. I continue to believe that a stronger dollar is the more likely outcome in so far as the near-term is concerned, assuming geopolitical risks do not fade abruptly, and energy prices retreat. That makes the near-term EUR/USD forecast slightly bearish.
Fed policymakers remain reluctant to soften their stance Despite encouraging inflation data, Federal Reserve officials have made little effort to signal an imminent policy pivot. Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Chris Waller both reiterated that one or two favourable inflation reports are insufficient evidence that price stability has been restored. With crude oil prices moving sharply higher, policymakers will be wary of declaring victory too early. Energy costs rising means the Fed is unlikely to abandon its cautious approach until it sees sustained evidence that inflation is returning towards target. Markets continue to price in one rate increase before year-end. Should expectations shift towards a more aggressive policy path, the dollar could extend its recent gains while risk assets may struggle to maintain their resilience.
ECB meeting could provide the next catalyst For the euro, attention now turns to next week’s European Central Bank meeting. Although policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, rising energy prices have injected a degree of uncertainty into the outlook. The ECB faces an uncomfortable balancing act. On one hand, inflation has continued to moderate across much of the eurozone. On the other, higher oil prices threaten to revive inflationary pressures while simultaneously weighing on economic growth, raising the spectre of stagflation.
Some policymakers may therefore argue for maintaining a hawkish bias to preserve the ECB’s inflation-fighting credibility. Investors will be paying close attention to President Lagarde’s guidance for clues on whether policymakers are becoming more concerned about renewed energy-driven inflation.
Beyond the ECB, next week’s flash PMI surveys will offer a timely snapshot of business activity across the major economies and could shape expectations for both European growth and the direction of the euro over the coming weeks.
Technical EUR/USD forecast: Key levels to watch The EUR/USD managed to find support from the support trend of its flag pattern near the 1.1380 area earlier this week. That led to a bounce to test resistance and the bearish trend line around 1.1475/80 zone. From there, we have since seen renewed weakness. As a result, the EUR/USD continues to remain inside its bear flag pattern, and below the bearish trend line. While momentum is clearly lacking, the overall technical bias is one that leans slightly on the bearish side of things. The onus is on the bulls to show up and change that trend. Until that happens, the near-term EUR/USD forecast from a technical analysis point of view remains to the downside.
Source: TradingView.com Should the EUR/USD break below the bear flag, then the next target would be the 1.1300 handle. Conversely, a break above the short-term bearish trend could expose the 1.1500 handle for a retest with the next resistance not seen until 1.1575 – 1.1600 area.
Gold (XAU/USD) shows moderate gains on Friday, but remains close to the year-to-date lows, at the $3,940 area, with upside attempts capped below the $4,000 psychological level for now. The precious metal is set for a 3% weekly decline, as the resumed hostilities between the US and Iran and the higher Oil prices have offset the positive impact of lower US Treasury yields.
Bullion tumbled on Thursday as tensions in Iran escalated with US President Donald Trump threatening to target civilian infrastructure, like power plants and bridges. Tehran, in turn, flagged the closure of the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, a move that would strangle Oil supply further and bring the global economy to the brink of recession.
Technical Analysis: The YTD low of $3,941 is coming under pressure
XAU/USD trades remain on a bearish trend from February's highs with no clear sign of a trend shift on the horizon, other than the bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Momentum indicators in the 4-hour remain in bearish territory, with the mentioned RSI below 40 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just below zero, suggesting that rallies will find sellers.
The psychological $4,000 level is holding bulls at the time of writing, closing the path towards the trendline resistance at $4,075 and mid-July highs in the $4,100 area. A clear break of these levels is needed to ease bearish pressure and shift the focus towards July's peak, in the $4,200 area.
On the downside, the year-to-date low, at $3,941, remains at a short distance. Further down, the October 2025 low, at $3,886, emerges as the next target, ahead of the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the late-June downleg, at the $3,830 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The British Pound (GBP) extends its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for the second straight day on Friday, trading 0.4% lower to near 1.3427 during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure as the British currency weakens amidst the process of the United Kingdom (UK) leadership change.
Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.12%0.33%-0.03%-0.04%0.40%0.23%-0.13%EUR-0.12%0.21%-0.17%-0.19%0.26%0.11%-0.25%GBP-0.33%-0.21%-0.37%-0.41%0.03%-0.09%-0.47%JPY0.03%0.17%0.37%-0.02%0.44%0.24%-0.10%CAD0.04%0.19%0.41%0.02%0.46%0.29%-0.08%AUD-0.40%-0.26%-0.03%-0.44%-0.46%-0.18%-0.53%NZD-0.23%-0.11%0.09%-0.24%-0.29%0.18%-0.36%CHF0.13%0.25%0.47%0.10%0.08%0.53%0.36% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Andy Burnham becomes Labour leader on Friday, but he will not become Prime Minister (PM) until Monday, as PM Keir Starmer will officially deliver his resignation to King Charles that day,
While the Pound Sterling has been underperforming from Thursday, it is set to end the week on a positive note. The currency performed strongly earlier this week after reports from Financial Times (FT) that incoming PM Burnham will name Shabana Mahmood as Finance Minister (FM), who is considered a fiscal conservative by financial markets.
On the economic data front, investors await the UK employment data for the three months ending May and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released next week.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades marginally higher amid fears of a resurgence in United States (US) inflation amid elevated energy prices on the back of continued aggression in the Middle East.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades sharply lower at around 1.3430. However, the pair maintains a modest bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3380. The pair declines after facing selling pressure near the downward-sloping border of the Descending Triangle formation above 1.3500.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 54.9 sits in neutral-positive territory, hinting that buying pressure is constructive but not yet overextended.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.3380, where a sustained break would undermine the current positive tone and expose a deeper correction towards 1.3300. On the topside, the first key obstacle is the descending resistance trend line near 1.3515; a daily close above this barrier would reinforce the bullish bias and open the door to further gains in the days ahead.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
CAD/JPY is on a winning streak despite a notable spike in geopolitical risk following renewed US-Iran hostilities. Why has the yen lost it? The CAD/JPY currency pair has recovered from an 18-week low of 112.96 on July 4th, achieving a four-day winning streak and surpassing 115.70. Typically, global markets see investors move away from cyclical currencies towards safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen during periods of geopolitical tension.
However, the yen is currently weakening while the loonie gains. This analysis explores why the CAD/JPY pair is deviating from traditional safe-haven behavior and what factors might influence its near-term performance.
Can the Yen Challenge the Canadian Dollar? Rising oil prices generally benefit the Canadian dollar, reflecting Canada’s position as a significant energy exporter. Recent geopolitical events in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices higher, providing fundamental support for the Canadian dollar.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen, often considered a safe-haven currency, faces its own challenges. Persistent interest rate differences and the Bank of Japan’s cautious monetary policy limit the yen’s attractiveness compared to currencies like the Canadian dollar, which offer higher yields.
While the yen has weakened against the US dollar, the CAD/JPY pair is benefiting from Canada’s resource-based economy. A continued increase in oil prices could further favor the Canadian dollar, although any easing of geopolitical tensions might reduce this advantage.
The Yen’s Deeper Problem Oil aside, the yen’s been fighting a losing battle for months. The Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to its highest level since 1995, yet the currency still slid to its weakest point since 1986 by late June. Tokyo’s Ministry of Finance stepped in with a record ¥11.7 trillion between late April and May, but that effect vanished within six weeks.
Lazard Asset Management points out that the usual explanation, the US-Japan interest rate gap, has actually narrowed recently. That would normally support the yen. Instead, rising inflation expectations and worries about Japan’s ballooning public debt, now close to 240% of GDP, seem to be the main problem, keeping the currency under pressure no matter what.
Beyond the oil slick, the broader trajectory of the CAD/JPY is being shaped by monetary policy differentials. On July 15, 2026, the Bank of Canada decided to keep its main interest rate at 2.25%. This makes sense because Canada’s economy grew by 2.5% in the second quarter, and the job market is getting tighter. So, the Bank of Canada doesn’t feel any pressure to lower interest rates right now.
Positioning Strategies for Investors Considering the Japanese yen is generally weak and oil prices are helping the Canadian dollar in the short term, the overall trend suggests that CAD/JPY could go up. Predictions show it might climb a bit more in the near future, although some models suggest it might eventually settle back down.
However, just betting on this upward trend has a risk of intervention. Japanese officials have shown they’re ready to step in to influence the market, even if their actions haven’t always had a lasting effect.
Instead of treating this as a sure thing, it seems smarter to be cautious with how much you invest, take smaller positions, and keep an eye out for any signs that the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance might step in.
Why has CAD/JPY shown recent strength?
Gains in oil prices from US-Iran tensions have supported the commodity-linked Canadian dollar against the yen.
Has Bank of Japan intervention helped the yen?
Bank of Japan intervention provided only temporary support for the yen. Record intervention in April-May 2026 briefly boosted the yen, but its weakness soon resumed.
How should investors approach CAD/JPY currently?
They should favor the broader uptrend but size positions cautiously. It is advisable to monitor intervention risks and developments in the Middle East rather than assuming continued, unchecked momentum.
Gold trades below $4000 level on Friday following Thursday’s break and daily close below this level (the first close well below the mark since 6 November 2025), after the price moved around 4K for almost one month, but all attacks failed to register a clear break lower.
Fresh violation of very significant 4K support may signal an end of extended directionless phase and continuation of larger downtrend from new record high, if break is sustained.
The metal came under fresh pressure as the latest escalation in the Middle East fuels inflationary risk (also partially offsets optimism from better than expected US June inflation numbers) that underpins the US dollar.
Loss of $4K support zone (including recent spike low at $3942) would expose immediate support at $3886 (28 Oct 2025), followed by $3666 (weekly Ichimoku cloud base) and $3606 (50% retracement of $1613/$5598 uptrend).
Gold is on track for the second consecutive weekly loss, with bearish daily studies contributing to negative scenario.
Conversely, failure to hold gains below $4000 would weaken developing bearish signal and keep the price in prolonged directionless mode, but biased lower as long as recent range top ($4203) stays intact.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
The Australian dollar has clawed back most of its end-of-June losses, when it touched three-month lows against the greenback amid escalating Middle East tensions. Since then, sentiment has improved: the RBA’s Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter signalled the board stands ready to tighten further if the recent oil shock feeds into inflation expectations. Still, resilient business surveys and a modest improvement in consumer confidence point to an economy holding up better than feared.
The Bank of Canada told a similarly nuanced story this week. Policymakers held the overnight rate steady at 2.25% and struck a cautiously optimistic tone on the domestic economy, upgrading medium-term growth expectations. At the same time, officials were careful to flag that instability in the Middle East continues to weigh heavily on the broader outlook, keeping the door open to both risks and opportunities depending on how the conflict evolves.
The result: two central banks watching the same geopolitical flashpoint, each balancing early signs of domestic resilience against a risk backdrop neither can fully control.
AUD/CAD Technical Analysis
As the 4-hour chart shows, AUD/CAD has been trading within a broader range between the 0.9750 support and 0.9950 resistance since April, with price action compressing into a tighter symmetrical triangle since June. This narrowing structure suggests a breakout could soon define the pair’s direction over the medium term.
Bullish Scenario Price continues finding support along the ascending trendline, having bounced off it multiple times and testing it once again. A renewed sign of strength here—breaking both the 200-period EMA and the descending trendline—would open the path back towards the 0.9950 resistance, the acid test for whether this level finally gives way or rejects price once more.
Bearish Scenario Should the ascending trendline finally break, price would quickly face the critical 0.9750 support, a level traders have been watching closely for months. A bounce here keeps the pair locked within its consolidation range, but a decisive break after so many failed attempts would likely signal a medium-term trend shift, opening the door toward the next area of interest between 0.9500 and 0.9550.
Will AUD/CAD finally commit to a direction after months of indecision?
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Weaker-than-expected US inflation data led markets to scale back expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. At the same time, escalating US-Iran tensions continue to sustain inflationary concerns.
The United States has launched several strikes against Iran this week, while Tehran has responded with attacks on US bases in neighbouring countries.
US consumer inflation came in softer than forecast in June, while producer prices unexpectedly fell. Retail sales increased in line with expectations: lower petrol prices reduced gas station revenues, while spending from car dealers and online retailers remained stable.
The number of initial jobless claims fell to a two-month low of 208,000. Markets have now all but ruled out a Fed rate hike in July, though views remain mixed on the possibility of a move in September.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1458 level, currently extending down to 1.1430 and up to 1.1455. A consolidation range around this level is practically complete. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective wave developing to 1.1465, followed by a decline to 1.1260. A direct downside breakout would open potential for a downward wave to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is above zero but pointing strictly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum with the potential for the trend to continue lower.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed the next downward wave to the 1.1430 level. A consolidation range is currently forming above this level. Today, a range expansion up to 1.1455 and down to 1.1400 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is above the 20 level and pointing strictly upwards to 80.
Conclusion EUR/USD is drifting lower on Friday as markets digest a mixed bag of US data. Softer-than-expected inflation figures-with consumer prices easing and producer prices unexpectedly falling-have reduced the likelihood of an imminent Fed rate hike. However, escalating US-Iran tensions continue to underpin inflationary fears, adding a layer of complexity to the policy outlook. Retail sales met expectations, with lower petrol prices offset by stable spending elsewhere, while jobless claims fell to a two-month low. Markets have priced out a July hike but remain divided on September. Technically, the bearish outlook for EUR/USD remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1260 in the medium term, though near-term consolidation around current levels is possible.
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Gold slips even as U.S. inflation data cools, with oil prices climbing on renewed Iran tensions and the dollar regaining strength. FOREX.com Market Analyst Fawad Razaqzada breaks down why the Fed needs more than one soft inflation print, plus the key gold technical levels to watch next.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $55.44 per troy ounce, down 0.17% from the $55.53 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 22.01% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 72.08 on Friday, up from 71.60 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $55.50 at the time of writing on Friday, virtually unchanged on the day, but remains on track to post a weekly loss of nearly 7%. Despite an increasingly tense geopolitical backdrop, the white metal remains under pressure as rising interest rate expectations offset demand for safe-haven assets, with investors concerned that higher energy prices could reignite inflationary pressures.
Middle East tensions continue to support Oil prices. Reuters reported that Iran has instructed Yemen's Houthis to stand ready to close the strategic Red Sea Oil shipping route if the United States (US) strikes Iranian energy infrastructure. At the same time, several explosions have been reported across multiple Iranian cities as the confrontation between Washington and Tehran continues to escalate.
These risks to global energy supplies are fueling concerns over another wave of inflation. Against this backdrop, investors believe major central banks could be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer, a scenario that weighs on non-yielding precious metals such as Silver.
In the United States, the latest economic data has reinforced this view. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 208K, below expectations, while the Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Fed) Manufacturing Index rose to its highest level since November 2021, highlighting the resilience of the US economy.
Several Fed officials have also maintained a cautious stance. Fed of Dallas President Lorie Logan said progress on inflation remains insufficient and that monetary tightening could still be necessary. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he would be open to raising interest rates if inflation fails to continue slowing down.
This combination of geopolitical tensions, rising Oil prices and expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy continues to limit Silver's appeal, even as safe-haven demand remains supported.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Swiss Franc surged over 0.20% in early trading, pulling the EUR/CHF pair toward 0.9230 and stalling its month-long uptrend The Franc's resurgence is driven by safe-haven demand amid rising Middle East geopolitical tensions and cooling Eurozone growth optimism The Swiss National Bank is ready to actively intervene in the currency markets to prevent the Franc from strengthening too aggressively and hurting exports The EUR/CHF exchange rate has shown resilience over the past month, with the pair advancing approximately 0.25% overall. However, the Swiss franc has recently strengthened. In two of the last three trading days, the franc has gained value.
This recovery accelerated on Friday, with the franc appreciating by over 0.20% in early European trading. This move pushed the EUR/CHF pair back towards the 0.9230 level. So, what is driving this sudden reversal of fortune, and what does it tell us about the broader market sentiment?
What is Boosting the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc’s recent rise is due to escalating global risks and changing monetary policy expectations. Investors are again seeking safe havens. Risk-on sentiment had briefly pushed up the Euro earlier this month, but the sudden collapse of the US-Iran deal and renewed military action in the Middle East have brought renewed geopolitical anxiety to markets. This tension has also driven crude oil prices higher, exposing energy-reliant European economies and making Switzerland’s resilience stand out.
There’s also a policy angle. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has held its policy rate at zero and, as Trading Economics notes, has repeatedly said it’s ready to intervene if the franc strengthens too much. Yet, it hasn’t acted. This restraint, somewhat counterintuitively, has actually given traders more confidence to hold franc positions. The immediate threat of aggressive SNB pushback now appears lower than markets had anticipated.
Underpinning these factors is Switzerland’s economic structure. Its disinflationary environment and comparatively stable economy contrast with the Eurozone’s ongoing challenges with slow industrial growth, particularly in Germany.
The European Central Bank is scheduled to meet on July 23, 2026. While the market anticipates no change to the key deposit rate, which stands at 2.25%, policymakers are signaling a data-dependent approach without committing to a specific future rate path.
What Does This Say About Risk Sentiment? Franc strength is usually shorthand for caution. When investors put their money into Switzerland’s currency instead of looking for higher returns elsewhere, it usually means they’re not feeling very confident about taking risks, at least for a while.
This happens even when things seem a bit better, like when talks between the US and Iran gave some temporary breathing room. However, underlying geopolitical tensions maintain demand for safe-haven currencies.
In essence, this situation reflects a market balancing the potential for economic recovery against ongoing uncertainties, including energy prices and differing monetary policies among major central banks. The performance of the franc serves as an indicator of these market forces. Until geopolitical tensions in the Middle East subside, the franc’s tendency to attract capital is likely to continue exerting downward pressure on the EUR/CHF pair.
What is the current benchmark policy interest rate maintained by the Swiss National Bank to support its domestic economic stability?
The Swiss National Bank has maintained its benchmark expansionary policy interest rate at exactly 0% throughout 2026.
Why has safe-haven demand returned to boost the Swiss Franc against the Euro during mid-July trading sessions?
Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the collapse of the U.S.–Iran deal have pushed investors toward defensive safe havens.
How does the franc’s performance reflect broader market sentiment?
It indicates cautious risk appetite, with investors seeking stability during geopolitical uncertainty while monitoring recovery signals.
The US Dollar (USD) has turned lower against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday’s European trading session, after failing to find acceptance above the 0.8100 level, which keeps the immediate bearish structure in place. The Dollar remains weighed by the soft US inflation figures released earlier this week, which have cooled hopes of immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures confirmed that inflationary pressures moderated in June, favoured by a sharp pullback in Oil prices. These numbers provide the Fed further leeway to assess the economic impact of the volatile energy prices, which practically discards a rate hike in July and cools hopes of one in September.
Geopolitical tensions, on the other hand, remain high, as the US and Iran escalated their reciprocal attacks this week, and Iran threatened to close other energy routes, which might bring the global economy to the edge. This is likely to keep appetite for risk subdued and cushion the US Dollar’s downside attempts.
Technical Analysis: Trading lower within a horizontal channel
USD/CHF trades at 0.8073, with recent price action showing a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, yet within a roughly 120-pip range and with momentum indicators at neutral-to-bearish levels. The four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering just below the 50 line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits marginally below zero, both hinting at subdued bullish conviction.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the July 10 and 15 lows near 0.8030, with key support in the area between early July lows, at 0.8010, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June's rally, at 0.8007. On the topside, bulls would need to confirm above session highs at 0.8100 to aim for the top of the channel at the area between 0.8135 and 0.8150, which capped rallies in late June and mid-July.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.00%0.22%0.00%-0.07%0.29%0.17%-0.19%EUR-0.01%0.22%-0.04%-0.11%0.30%0.16%-0.22%GBP-0.22%-0.22%-0.24%-0.32%0.07%-0.03%-0.44%JPY0.00%0.04%0.24%-0.07%0.30%0.17%-0.20%CAD0.07%0.11%0.32%0.07%0.38%0.26%-0.13%AUD-0.29%-0.30%-0.07%-0.30%-0.38%-0.13%-0.51%NZD-0.17%-0.16%0.03%-0.17%-0.26%0.13%-0.38%CHF0.19%0.22%0.44%0.20%0.13%0.51%0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
The USD/CAD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.4033 during the European trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair edges down as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperforms its major currency peers amid fears that oil prices could accelerate further.
Currencies from economies, such as Canada, that are net energy exporters tend to outperform in a high-oil-price environment.
The oil price outlook has improved amid threats from Iran that it will close the Red Sea if the United States (US) strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
On the monetary policy front, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said in the press conference, after leaving interest rates unchanged at 2.25%, that the central bank might need to raise interest rates if oil prices remain higher.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar holds Thursday’s recovery move amid fears of a resurgence in US inflation due to rising energy prices.
USD/CAD technical analysis
USD/CAD trades slightly lower at around 1.4033, extending a corrective tone after pulling back from recent highs. The pair now sits beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4107, suggesting a near-term bearish bias as price loses traction relative to the short-term trend benchmark.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.6 has retreated from overbought territory and now leans toward the lower half of its range, suggesting that downside momentum is still in play but not yet oversold.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 1.4107, and a sustained recovery above this barrier would be needed to ease the current pressure. On the downside, the pair is expected to extend its decline towards the March 31 high at 1.3967.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.
Cable struggles as the pair met firm resistance after pushing over 100 pips in the past session.
• Not even a lift in GDP data could prevent the pound from slipping away from the 1.3500 level.
• With the RSI majorly overbought, a brief bounce to the downside could ensue.
• 1.3400 is the first hurdle to break before price action takes the pair back to the recent swing low at 1.3340.
• A move back past 1.3500 sees 1.3550 being the top to break.
USDCAD breaks lower
The Canadian dollar continues its advance as prices move away from the 1.4100 area.
• The pair remains under some pressure as its recent descent might lead to a reversal.
• A bullish divergence on the RSI is likely to attract buying interest in the near term as previous sellers look to switch sides.
• 1.4060 is the first target to expect sellers to close positions.
• A fall below 1.4000 would extend the sell-off towards 1.3960.
USOIL consolidating
WTI hits another fresh high as economists expect a test at the $82 level by the end of this week.
• As a show of resilience, the price has managed to hover around the psychological area of 80.00.
• Bulls will need to lift the 82.00 level before they can end the lengthy consolidation and push for a broader recovery.
• On the downside, 78.00 is the first support to keep the current momentum intact, with 75.50 a firm backup.
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On 3 July, Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, stated that the Ministry of Finance remains in close contact with US authorities regarding developments in USD/JPY as the yen traded near its weakest level in almost 40 years. Similar verbal warnings have become increasingly common whenever the pair approaches the 162.00 area, although no direct intervention has been announced so far.
At the same time, weaker-than-expected US inflation data added pressure to the dollar. On 14 July, June’s Consumer Price Index came in below forecasts, significantly reducing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting and pushing US Treasury yields lower. The combination of increasingly cautious rhetoric from Japanese officials and softer US inflation expectations may keep USD/JPY range-bound, preventing buyers from establishing a sustained break above its multi-decade highs.
Technical Picture
On the four-hour chart, USD/JPY advanced steadily throughout June, reaching a peak near 162.80 on 1 July. A sharp reversal followed, with the pair dropping rapidly to the 160.50 area, where the green support zone is currently located. The decline coincided with market speculation about a possible currency intervention by the Japanese authorities.
After rebounding from the 3 July low, the pair began forming a triangle pattern. Price is now testing the upper boundary of the formation, although the attempted upside breakout is currently being capped by the upper edge of the current volume profile at 162.45. Just above this level lies the red resistance zone at 162.70.
The Point of Control (POC) is located around 162.08 and could become a key magnet if the pair moves back towards the lower part of the range, where two additional important technical levels are visible: the lower boundary of the volume profile at 161.45 and the green support zone at 160.50.
Volume behaviour also deserves attention. The break above the triangle’s upper boundary was not supported by strong bullish volume, indicating limited buying conviction and increasing the risk that the breakout could soon reverse. Meanwhile, the RSI + MAs oscillator stands at 54, 52 and 52 respectively, with all three readings remaining firmly in neutral territory, reinforcing the current lack of directional conviction.
Key Takeaways USD/JPY is testing the upper boundary of its current market structure while momentum indicators remain neutral. The lack of bullish volume at the breakout adds uncertainty, while the Point of Control around 162.08 could be the key reference level if price begins to move lower.
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The Euro (EUR) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.1445 during the European trading session on Friday. The EUR/USD pair is expected to trade with caution amid continued military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran.
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 101.70.
Earlier in the day, Iran asked Yemen’s Houthi militia to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure, Reuters reports.
The threat from Iran is a response to remarks from US President Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox News, in which he said that military forces would be authorized to attack Iranian bridges and power plants if the nation doesn’t come to the table for negotiations.
A further disruption in the global energy supply would squeeze the already-low global oil supply, which could further accelerate fears of high inflation globally.
On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank is expected to deliver more interest rate hikes amid fears of second-round inflation effects in the Eurozone.
ECB Governing Council Member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said earlier this week that the central bank remains vigilant to Middle East developments, while warning that policymakers will act decisively if necessary.
Nagel keeps ECB vigilant but tempers hawkish edge for the EuroECB's Nagel scores 6.4/10 on FXS Speechtracker, below the historic 7.2/10 baseline, signaling a slightly softer tone versus past communications. The emphasis on reacting "with caution" but "decisively if necessary" points to a moderately hawkish stance, yet less forceful than usual, suggesting the Euro may see limited upside unless data re-energizes policy conviction.
The pledge that monetary policy will "maintain its vigilant stance" reinforces a readiness to tighten or resist premature easing, supporting the Euro against more dovish expectations. However, the reference to recent geopolitical "hopes and disappointments" introduces uncertainty, implying that while vigilance remains, conviction is constrained, which caps the hawkish impact reflected in the lower FXS Speechtracker score.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Christopher Wong report EUR/USD has eased after Wednesday’s surge, with current price action seen as consolidation between 1.1420 and 1.1465. On a 1–3 week view, the Euro retains an upside bias, though momentum toward the 1.1520 resistance is still uncertain, and a break below 1.1405 would signal a return to broader range trading.
Euro consolidates after recent rally"24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR surged to a high of 1.1482 on Wednesday, we highlighted yesterday that “while the rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, there is scope for EUR to test 1.1490.” We also highlighted that “we do not expect the significant resistance at 1.1520 to come into view.” However, instead of testing 1.1490, EUR pulled back from 1.1476 to 1.1430 before closing at 1.1441 (-0.19%). The immediate upward pressure has eased, and the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase, which is expected to be between 1.1420 and 1.1465."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from yesterday (16 Jul, spot at 1.1470) remains valid. As highlighted, while EUR “is likely to trade with an upside bias, it is too early to determine whether there is sufficient momentum for EUR to reach the significant resistance level at 1.1520.” On the downside, a breach of 1.1405 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that EUR has reverted to a range-trading phase."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate weakened on Thursday as escalating conflict in the Middle East drove investors towards the safe-haven US Dollar despite another positive UK political development.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3499, down around 0.3% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.347769 (-0.46%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.14428 (-0.23%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.36824 (+0.19%)
DAILY RECAP:
The safe-haven US Dollar (USD) found some support on Thursday, as escalating tensions in the Middle East soured the market mood.
Sentiment had been relatively resilient since the US and Iran renewed hostilities, but with the fighting intensifying, risk appetite began to fade.
The US expanded its attacks into northern Iran, with strikes also hitting around the Iranian capital of Tehran.
US President Donald Trump also threatened to target Iranian infrastructure, such as bridges, with Tehran vowing to retaliate by targeting infrastructure in US-allied Gulf states.
With the conflict escalating, the US Dollar firmed amid renewed safe-haven demand.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) edged lower as Sterling gave back part of the strong gains it posted in the previous session.
The UK currency had surged on Wednesday after reports suggested Shabana Mahmood had overtaken Ed Miliband as the leading contender to become Chancellor under incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
Markets had been uneasy about the prospect of Miliband taking the role, amid expectations he could favour looser fiscal policy. By contrast, Mahmood is viewed as a more fiscally orthodox choice, with reports of her likely appointment proving reassuring for investors.
Even so, Sterling was unable to extend its advance on Thursday, despite UK GDP data matching expectations with a modest 0.1% expansion in May.
Instead, traders appeared to lock in profits after the previous day's rally, leaving the Pound on the back foot.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Consumer Confidence to Support the US Dollar? Looking ahead, the key data release on Friday will be the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment index in the US.
Markets expect American household morale to have improved in July, with the index set to rise from 49.5 to 51. This could underpin the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, market risk appetite may also influence the safe-haven ‘Greenback’. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, an anxious mood may support USD.
As for the Pound, a lack of UK data could limit Sterling. That said, political optimism may continue to provide some support for GBP.
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate briefly climbed to a one-week high on Thursday before easing back as investors locked in profits following Sterling's recent rally.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.9294, having retreated from an earlier high of AU$1.9353.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.926352 (-0.27%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.347811 (-0.45%)
Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD): 0.69967 (-0.19%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) softened during Thursday’s Asian trading session as markets reacted to new data.
Australian consumer inflation expectations unexpectedly eased from 5.5% in June to 4.7% in July, the lowest reading since January.
The latest figures slightly dampened Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hike expectations, although the impact was limited.
This allowed AUD to recoup some losses as European trade began.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) trended slightly lower on Thursday, with GBP surrendering some of Wednesday’s impressive gains.
Sterling had rallied in the middle of the week following reports that Shabana Mahmood is now the frontrunner for Chancellor in incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s cabinet, rather than Ed Miliband.
Miliband had been the favourite to enter Number 11, but there were concerns among investors that the soft-left MP would pursue less orthodox fiscal policy. Mahmood is seen as more market-friendly, with City figures welcoming reports that she could be Burnham’s choice.
However, the Pound couldn’t sustain its gains into Thursday, even with UK GDP printing as forecast to show a 0.1% recovery in May.
Following Wednesday’s gains, Sterling seemed to suffer some profit-taking.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Wider Trends to Drive the Pairing Looking ahead, economic data is thin on the ground for both the Pound and the Australian Dollar on Friday, likely leaving the pairing to trade on wider market trends.
Sterling may draw support as Andy Burnham is formally declared Labour leader, paving the way for him to enter Number 10 on Monday, if investors continue to feel more certain about the future of UK politics.
Meanwhile, market risk dynamics may drive the risk-sensitive ‘Aussie’. Events in the Middle East could be key, although the recent escalation in tensions has had a muted impact on the market mood so far.
USD/CNH remains range-bound as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continues to support the yuan with stronger daily fixings. Safe-haven demand for the US dollar is offsetting pressure from softer US inflation and expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve. Markets are closely watching China's economic data, PBoC policy, and upcoming US economic releases for the next direction in USD/CNH. The USD/CNH exchange rate traded in a relatively narrow range as investors balanced China’s efforts to stabilise the yuan against continued demand for the US dollar amid global uncertainty.
On one side, the People’s Bank of China has continued setting stronger-than-expected daily reference rates for the yuan, signalling its commitment to maintaining currency stability. On the other, the US dollar has remained supported by safe-haven flows despite softer inflation data that has strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year.
The competing macroeconomic forces have left USD/CNH largely range-bound as traders await fresh economic catalysts from both the United States and China.
PBoC Continues to Support the Chinese Yuan The Chinese yuan has found support as the People’s Bank of China continues to guide the currency through stronger-than-expected daily midpoint fixings.
The central bank has consistently set the official reference rate firmer than market estimates, signalling that policymakers are seeking to prevent excessive depreciation while maintaining orderly currency movements.
The PBoC has also injected additional liquidity into the financial system through reverse repurchase operations, aiming to support economic activity without triggering significant weakness in the yuan.
China’s authorities have increasingly relied on targeted monetary support and currency management to stabilise financial markets as the country navigates slower economic growth and weakness in its property sector.
US Dollar Supported Despite Softer Inflation Data While China’s policy actions have supported the yuan, the US dollar continues to benefit from broader global market dynamics.
Recent US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data pointed to easing inflationary pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin lowering interest rates in the coming months.
Ordinarily, softer inflation would weigh on the dollar. However, renewed geopolitical tensions and elevated demand for safe-haven assets have continued to underpin the greenback. Higher US Treasury yields have also helped attract global capital into dollar-denominated assets, limiting downside pressure on the currency.
This balance between improving inflation and continued safe-haven demand has prevented a sharper decline in USD/CNH.
China’s Economic Outlook Remains in Focus Investor sentiment toward the yuan continues to depend largely on China’s economic recovery. Markets remain closely focused on manufacturing activity, export performance, consumer spending and further government stimulus measures.
Recent policy support has helped improve confidence that Beijing remains committed to achieving its economic growth targets, but concerns over the property sector and weak domestic demand continue to weigh on sentiment.
As a result, every major economic release from China has the potential to influence expectations for further monetary easing and, by extension, the outlook for the yuan.
Federal Reserve and PBoC Policies Will Drive USD/CNH Monetary policy remains one of the biggest drivers of the USD/CNH exchange rate.
Investors continue to assess whether the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy later this year following signs that US inflation is cooling. Lower US interest rates would generally reduce support for the dollar.
Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China is expected to maintain a measured approach to monetary easing while continuing to manage exchange rate stability through its daily currency fixings and liquidity operations. The divergence between the Fed’s policy outlook and China’s currency management strategy is likely to remain a key theme for forex markets in the months ahead.
What This Means for USD/CNH The near-term outlook for USD/CNH will depend on whether China’s economic recovery gains momentum and how quickly the Federal Reserve begins easing monetary policy.
The PBoC’s commitment to supporting the yuan has helped keep the currency relatively stable despite domestic economic challenges, while safe-haven demand has prevented the US dollar from weakening significantly. As markets digest upcoming economic data from both countries, traders will continue looking for signals that could determine whether USD/CNH breaks out of its recent trading range.
Why is USD/CNH in focus today?
USD/CNH is attracting attention as the People’s Bank of China continues setting stronger-than-expected daily yuan fixings while investors assess the impact of softer US inflation data and expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
What is the difference between USD/CNH and USD/CNY?
USD/CNH tracks the US dollar against the offshore Chinese yuan, which is traded in international financial markets such as Hong Kong. USD/CNY refers to the onshore yuan traded within mainland China under tighter management by the People’s Bank of China.
How does the People’s Bank of China influence USD/CNH?
The People’s Bank of China influences USD/CNH by setting a daily midpoint for the yuan, managing market liquidity, and implementing monetary policy measures. Stronger daily fixings and policy support can strengthen the yuan and put downward pressure on the USD/CNH exchange rate.
Key Points:Strong U.S. retail sales and resilient jobless claims reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.DXY remains below trendline resistance, with a break above 100.77 needed to revive near-term bullish momentum.EUR/USD continues consolidating beneath key resistance while holding above both major moving averages.GBP/USD remains in a broader uptrend as buyers defend trendline support despite the recent pullback.
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US Dollar News: Strong Data Reinforces Fed’s Cautious Stance The U.S. Dollar’s technical profile is underpinned by better than expected data which highlighted steady retail sales and a strong jobs market. June retail sales saw 0.2% month on month growth while the control group rose 0.4%, both indicating underlying resilience in consumer demand. Initial jobless claims came in at 221,000 which highlighted a strong labour market. The data has tempered expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates this year as retail sales and unemployment remain relatively strong even though overall growth has slowed.
Meanwhile, The Euro’s outlook is weighed down by slowing growth prospects in the eurozone with the ECB keeping rates stable at its 2.25% deposit rate, according to futures.
Sterling has also found support following the central bank’s hawkish policy stance after UK inflation remains too high. The consensus is that policymakers will be holding the Bank Rate at 3.75%. This view is consistent with persistent price pressures as well as some easing in the labor market, both before the next rate decision.
US Dollar Technical Analysis: DXY Rejected Below Trendline as Bears Defend 100.77 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at 100.69, after another test off the descending trendline at 100.77 resistance. DXY remains below 100.79 (50 EMA) and 100.87 (100 EMA) and the trendline which has been a source of repeated tests, confirming the short term bearish bias.
The 100.61 support level is followed by 100.52 and 100.35 while 100.77 resistance is followed by 101.03.RSI has dropped to ~47, indicating a potential slowdown in buyer momentum and a neutral-bearish tone overall. I’ll wait for the market to trade through 100.77 on my way to 101.03, with 100.61 being an important key level to flip if traded through.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pullback Holds Above Trendline as Uptrend Remains Intact GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is near 1.3472 after a retreat from last week’s highs around 1.3559. Buyers are defending the trendline, as GBP/USD remains above the 50 EMA at 1.3449 and the 100 EMA at 1.3415. The price remains bullish despite a short term decline since higher highs and higher lows are intact on a larger picture.
GBP/USD faces 1.3507 resistance, with 1.3560 resistance ahead of that. Price is supported by 1.3449, which is followed by 1.3340 support. The RSI cooled to ~51, indicating that the correction has likely been a short term dip rather than a trend reversal. I’ll look to trade a breakout through 1.3507 on my way to 1.3560, with a drop below 1.3449 likely targeting 1.3340.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls Hold Above 50 EMA While Testing Key Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The Euro is at 1.1450, consolidating below the 1.1461 resistance level after extending its rally in the previous sessions. The 1.1437 (50 EMA) and 1.1431 (100 EMA) levels are still supporting price action and the market remains bullish despite being turned down by overhead resistance.
The trend structure resembles a tightening symmetrical triangle with 1.1412 support at 1.1379. The 1.1461 resistance is followed by 1.1493.
The RSI is hovering around ~54, indicating a low degree of bullish momentum with room before entering overbought territory. I’ll wait for confirmation of a 1.1461 breach on my way to 1.1493, with a breakdown at 1.1412 likely sending price back toward 1.1379.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes EUR/USD is struggling for clear direction as the Iran conflict, Oil prices, and diverging inflation dynamics cloud the outlook. He highlights a strong link between Oil and ECB rate expectations, while the Fed faces falling inflation and AI-driven productivity hopes. With upcoming ECB and Fed meetings, EUR/USD is seen staying in a sideways trend.
Cross stuck in confused sideways trade"The euro side therefore seems to be looking to the oil price for guidance. At least that’s what the renewed strong correlation between the oil price and ECB interest rate expectations for December suggests. For the US dollar, however, things are even more complicated right now."
"The strength of the US dollar depends, at least in part, on its role as the world's leading currency and the world’s most important reserve currency. Part of the foundation of these functions is trust in the US and the US dollar. And that trust seems to be increasingly eroding."
"As we’ve mentioned before, this situation could very well persist for a while. The ECB and Fed meetings are scheduled for the next two weeks. However, we expect it will still be too early for the ECB to lock in another rate hike, while it’s likely too early for the Fed to adopt a more dovish tone just yet."
"EUR/USD could therefore remain stuck in a sideways trend for a little longer."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) at around 0.6990 during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair edges down as the US Dollar ticks higher amid fears that the United States (US) inflation could re-accelerate after slowing down in June.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 100.80.
Fears of a resurgence in US inflation are prompted by elevated energy prices amid continued aggression in the Middle East. Above that, Iran has threatened to close the Red Sea if the United States (US) strikes Iranian infrastructure.
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump threatened to attack Iranian bridges and power plants if Tehran doesn’t return to the table for negotiations.
On the Australian Dollar (AUD) front, investors await the employment data for June, which will be released next week.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades slightly lower at around 0.6990, but maintains a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6969. The pair has recovered from late-May lows and is consolidating just over this dynamic floor, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51 suggests neutral-to-positive momentum without yet reaching overbought conditions.
On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 0.6969, followed by the July 14 low at 0.6913. Below 0.6913, the pair could slide to near the March 30 low at 0.6833. Looking up, the pair could extend its advance towards the June 18 high at 0.7042.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Christopher Wong note GBP/USD has corrected sharply from recent highs near 1.3556 but now looks set to consolidate between 1.3450 and 1.3520 intraday. The 1–3 week outlook still sees renewed upward momentum, with 1.3590 as a key level to monitor, while a break below 1.3450 would point to a period of consolidation before any further gains.
Pound steadies after sharp retreat"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, GBP surged to a high of 1.3556. Yesterday, when GBP was at 1.3540, we indicated the following: “The sharp rally appears excessive, but with no sign of pause yet, GBP could continue to rise. However, given the deeply overbought conditions, any advance could be limited to a test of 1.3560.” Our assessment turned out to be incorrect, as GBP did not test 1.3560. Instead, it retreated sharply to a low of 1.3460 before closing 0.43% lower at 1.3480. The sharp pullback has stabilised somewhat, and instead of continuing to decline today, GBP is more likely to trade in a range between 1.3450 and 1.3520."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After GBP surged on Wednesday, we indicated yesterday (16 Jul, spot at 1.3540) that “the renewed upward momentum suggests that GBP has resumed its advance.” We also highlighted that “the level to monitor is 1.3590.” We did not expect GBP to pull back sharply to 1.3460. Upward momentum has eased somewhat, and a breach of 1.3450 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would suggest that GBP could consolidate first before pushing higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
USD/JPY steadies after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 162.40 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair is maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The location of prices over these key averages suggests buyers remain in control
Additionally, the daily technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY pair is remaining within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting a prevailing bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59.8 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting at sustained but measured upside pressure.
The USD/JPY pair could find initial resistance at the 40-year high of 162.84, which was reached on July 1. Further advances would support the pair to approach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 164.50.
On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 162.22, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 162.00. A sustained break below the channel would expose the 50-day EMA at 160.85. Further declines below the medium-term moving average would cause a bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the four-month low of 155.04, recorded on May 6.
USD/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.07%0.03%-0.03%-0.06%0.12%0.03%-0.11%EUR0.07%0.11%0.04%0.00%0.20%0.10%-0.04%GBP-0.03%-0.11%-0.07%-0.11%0.08%0.00%-0.16%JPY0.03%-0.04%0.07%-0.04%0.15%0.04%-0.08%CAD0.06%0.00%0.11%0.04%0.20%0.10%-0.04%AUD-0.12%-0.20%-0.08%-0.15%-0.20%-0.11%-0.24%NZD-0.03%-0.10%-0.00%-0.04%-0.10%0.11%-0.14%CHF0.11%0.04%0.16%0.08%0.04%0.24%0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
British Pound weakens below 1.3500 as US launches new wave of strikes against IranThe GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.3470 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East trigger risk-off market sentiment and weigh on the Cable. The preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July is due later on Friday.
The United States (US) has carried out major strikes on Iran for the sixth day in a row. Officials in southern Iran’s Bandar Abbas reported that civilian infrastructure, including power facilities and a train station, has been hit. Read more...
The British Pound Sterling gets a new Prime Minister and an old problemSterling is enduring its heaviest session of the month, with GBP/USD fading around half of one percent to just below 1.3500 after the week's advance stalled short of 1.3550 for a second consecutive day. The pullback trims a July run that has carried the Pound roughly 400 pips off the yearly low printed just below 1.3150, and it arrives with the daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index pressing overbought territory near 90, exactly the setup in which extended rallies get taxed.
Thursday's London data gave Sterling nothing to work with. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.1% MoM in May, barely reversing April's contraction, while industrial production fell 0.5% against expectations for a far shallower dip, and only a modest manufacturing beat kept the morning from reading as an outright stall. A Bank of England (BoE) deputy governor then delivered remarks that markets scored as unmistakably dovish for the speaker, leaning on growth risks rather than the inflation overshoot. Read more...
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 0.8% to near $55.00 during the early European trading session on Friday. The white metal posted a fresh Year-To-Date (YTD) low at $54.77 earlier in the day. The asset faces intense selling pressure amid fears that the global energy supply could be squeezed further, following threats from Iran that it will close the Red Sea.
During the day, Iran asked Yemen’s Houthi militia to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the United States (US) strikes Iranian power infrastructure, emerging as a new threat to global energy supply that is already squeezed due to US-Iran military aggression near the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports.
Iran’s Red Sea closure threat is a response to US President Donald Trump’s warning, through an interview with Fox News, that he will authorize forces to attack Iranian bridges and power plants if Tehran doesn’t come to the table for negotiations.
Fears of a further increase in oil prices due to energy supply concerns would keep inflation projections de-anchored, a scenario that forces central banks to tighten monetary conditions and eventually diminishes the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, a slight upbeat in the US Dollar amid fears that US inflation could re-accelerate due to higher energy prices after cooling down in June is also weighing on the Silver price. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 100.80. Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an unfavorable risk-reward bet for investors.
However, the decline in hawkish Fed bets due to soft US CPI data remains intact. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering an interest rate hike in the meeting later this month have dropped significantly to 10.2% from 24.6% recorded a week ago.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 471.38 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 469.48 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,498.09 per tola from AED 5,475.88 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
471.38
10 Grams
4,713.81
Tola
5,498.09
Troy Ounce
14,661.61
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,898.31 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,867.96 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 92,124.66 per tola from PHP 91,770.38 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,898.31
10 Grams
78,983.37
Tola
92,124.66
Troy Ounce
245,665.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 481.76 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 480.07 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,619.25 per tola from SAR 5,599.49 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
481.76
10 Grams
4,817.68
Tola
5,619.25
Troy Ounce
14,984.61
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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The EUR/USD pair ticks lower for the second straight day on Friday as energy-driven inflation fears revive US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and support the US Dollar (USD) amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1435 region, though the lack of follow-through selling warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the pullback from a nearly four-week high, touched on Wednesday.
From a technical perspective, this week's breakout momentum above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall faltered near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near a neutral 50, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is drifting marginally negative. Momentum indicators hint that bullish attempts may remain constrained.
On the downside, the main structural support is located at the Fibonacci anchor near 1.1330, which aligns with the latest swing low and could attract buyers on a deeper pullback.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 200-period SMA at 1.1477 ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 1.1508. A sustained break above these would open the door toward higher Fibonacci hurdles at 1.1563 and 1.1618, if bullish pressure extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
