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The kiwi has strengthened meaningfully against most peers this month. However, against the US dollar specifically, NZD/USD remains well below its 2026 highs, trading in the mid-0.58 area versus January’s peak near 0.6075.

New Zealand’s Q2 inflation data, released this week, blew past expectations: annual CPI accelerated to 4.1%, above both forecasts and the RBNZ’s own 3.9% projection, reinforcing the case for further tightening after the central bank’s surprise hike to 2.50% earlier in July—its first in over three years.

The dollar side of the equation remains the real wildcard. June’s payrolls report badly missed expectations, coming in at just 57,000, with prior months revised sharply lower, undercutting the Fed’s near-term tightening case despite still-sticky core inflation near 2.9%. Markets currently assign roughly even odds to a September hike, leaving NZD/USD’s next move hostage to next week’s Fed decision and any further escalation in Middle East tensions.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

As the 4-hour chart shows, NZD/USD has arrived at a genuinely pivotal zone around 0.5850, a level that has repeatedly flipped between support and resistance throughout the year. Currently acting as resistance, this area has become the focal point of a tug-of-war that has now played out for several sessions.

Bullish Scenario After bouncing from the medium-term support at 0.5600–0.5650, price staged a decisive recovery, breaking above the 200-period EMA and successfully retesting it as new support, all while forming a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This strength has been reinforced by supportive central bank rhetoric and macro data favoring the kiwi. A confirmed break above 0.5850, coinciding with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the late-June decline, would open the path toward the next resistance and psychological level at 0.6000.

Bearish Scenario A rejection at this critical zone, however, would hand momentum back to sellers, sending price first toward a retest of the 200-period EMA near 0.5781. A break below that level would expose the well-defended 0.5600 support once again.

With the Fed decision looming and price sitting at such a decisive technical juncture, NZD/USD looks set for a significant move next week. Can the kiwi withstand the coming dollar volatility?

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The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate slipped to a one-month low on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected New Zealand inflation reinforced expectations for further Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate hikes.

At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading around NZ$2.2939, down approximately 0.2% on the day.

Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.295692 (+0.02%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.956495 (+0.29%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.5827 (-0.43%)

DAILY RECAP:

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) appreciated through Tuesday's Asian trading session as markets digested New Zealand's latest consumer price index.

According to the CPI figures published by Stats NZ, annual inflation accelerated to 4.1% in the second quarter, up from 3.1% previously and above market forecasts of 4.0%.

Perhaps more importantly, the Q2 inflation print also outpaced the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s previous 3.9% forecast.

This prompted NZD investors to increase their bets on further monetary tightening after the RBNZ's recent decision to lift the Official Cash Rate to 2.5%.

However, the ‘Kiwi’ was unable to sustain its best levels for long, with NZD exchange rates falling back by the start of the European session as market risk appetite was sapped by the continued escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, trade in the Pound (GBP) was broadly flat on Tuesday as the UK's latest jobs report helped to calm concerns over turbulence in the UK bond market at the start of the session.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that unemployment held steady at 4.9% in May, against forecasts it would rise to 5.0%, while employment growth accelerated from 100,000 to 147,000 against consensus estimates it would drop to 85,000.

The surprisingly robust jobs data was welcomed by GBP investors as it increased the chances of the Bank of England (BoE) tightening monetary policy later in the year.

However, Sterling's upside potential remained capped after the start of Andy Burnham's premiership triggered a rise in UK gilt yields as he signalled his willingness to exercise flexibility while still adhering to fiscal rules.

Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: Slowdown in UK Inflation to Sap Sterling? Looking ahead, the next catalyst for the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate will be the UK's latest inflation figures.

Economists expect UK inflation to have cooled further in June, with Sterling likely to come under pressure if the data weakens expectations for further Bank of England interest rate hikes.

Meanwhile, the ‘Kiwi’ could face headwinds if New Zealand's latest credit card spending figures point to a slowdown in consumer spending last month.

The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Wednesday at 06:00 GMT, a print that will matter for markets. Consensus expectations point to inflation pressures still above the Bank of England’s (BoE) target, although losing further momentum.

UK consumer inflation remains one of the most important inputs for the BoE and typically carries real weight for the British Pound (GBP). Following the latest cautious hold by the BoE on June 18, investors now favour a steady hand by the ‘Old Lady’ at its meeting on July 30.

What to expect from the next UK inflation report?Headline UK CPI is expected to clock 2.7% in the year to June, a tad lower than the May reading. On a monthly basis, inflation is seen gaining 0.1%, adding to the 0.2% increase recorded the previous month.

Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components and is therefore more closely watched by the BoE, is forecast at 2.5% on an annual basis, down a tenth of percent from May.

How will the UK CPI data affect GBP/USD?The BoE met expectations and kept the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% on June 18. However, the 7–2 vote split carried a slightly more hawkish tone, with Megan Greene joining Huw Pill in supporting a 25-basis-point increase. But the larger message is patience, with policy still firmly in wait-and-see mode and market pricing that reflects that stance.

In his latest comments last week, Governor Andrew Bailey said the renewed hostilities in the Gulf highlighted the instability facing the global economy. Turning to the UK, he argued that the country was supported by both its fiscal framework and monetary policy, while stressing that the central challenge remained economic growth.

Bailey added that the UK’s core banking system was resilient and that debt levels were not overstretched. However, he warned that sustainable economic growth would not be possible without financial stability.

Implied rates currently suggest nearly 43 basis points of tightening by year-end, while consensus sees the central bank keeping its policy rate unchanged at its next gathering on July 30.

Back to technicals, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, Pablo Piovano, notes that the recent multi-week recovery in GBP/USD appears to have encountered some initial hurdle in the 1.3550-1.3560 band near the July tops. “In case bulls regain the upper hand, the next barrier emerges at the May top at 1.3653 (May 11), followed by the YTD ceiling at 1.3868 (January 27)," he adds.

On the downside, Piovano sees initial contention at current yearly lows near 1.3140 (June 24). “Further weakness from here could expose a move toward the November 2025 base at 1.3010 (November 5),” Piovano adds.

Piovano also points out that momentum indicators remain somewhat bullish for now as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below 54, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 18 suggests the current trend lacks muscle.

Interest rates FAQs Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is also the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

The EUR/USD pair is seen consolidating during the Asian session on Tuesday and trading just above the 1.1400 mark, or a four-day low touched the previous day. Market participants seem hesitant and keenly await the highly-anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.

In the meantime, energy-driven inflation fears bolster US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and support the US Dollar (USD) amid escalating US-Iran tensions. This could act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair, warranting caution before confirming that the recent pullback from a four-week high, touched last Wednesday, has run its course.

Spot prices keep a bearish tone following last week's failure near the 1.1480-1.1485 region, which coincides with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero with a negative reading, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.95 stays under the midline.

Momentum indicators together suggest waning bullish momentum and reinforce the downside bias while the EUR/USD pair remains capped beneath the 200-period SMA. This, in turn, backs the case for an eventual break below the 1.1400 round figure and a further decline towards retesting the year-to-date low, around the 1.1325 region, touched on June 24.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-period SMA around 1.1480. A sustained move above this level is needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way for a more constructive outlook. Nevertheless, the sub-50 RSI and negative MACD suggest that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair remains to the downside.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Economic Indicator ECB Press Conference Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic policy decision, the ECB President gives a press conference regarding monetary policy. The president’s comments may influence the volatility of the Euro (EUR) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. If the president adopts a hawkish tone it is considered bullish for the EUR, whereas if the tone is dovish the result is usually bearish for the Euro.

Read more.

Next release: Thu Jul 23, 2026 12:45

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: -

Previous: -

Source: European Central Bank

Headline inflation beats, underlying pressures easing Tradables prices undershoot RBNZ's forecast September RBNZ hike likely, longer-term pricing looks excessive NZD/USD bulls retain technical advantage above support AUD/NZD breakdown keeps sellers firmly in control A beat, but with important caveats New Zealand consumer prices rose 1.5% in the June quarter, lifting the annual inflation rate to 4.1%. While that was above the 4.0% increase expected by economists, it fell just short of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 4.2% forecast released in May.

That suggests inflation remains uncomfortably high and is likely to keep the RBNZ on course to tighten policy further. However, the underlying details were more encouraging, with the broadest measure of core inflation easing further and domestic price pressures evolving broadly as the central bank had anticipated.

The composition of the report was arguably more important than the headline. While annual inflation accelerated, much of the increase reflected higher tradeable prices, which are influenced by developments offshore rather than domestic demand.

Source: FOREX.com, RBNZ, StatsNZ

Tradeable inflation accelerated to 4.9% over the year, driven largely by a 27.5% jump in petrol prices and a 71.0% surge in other vehicle fuels and lubricants. However, that was well below the RBNZ's 5.6% forecast, explaining why headline inflation also undershot the central bank's expectations.

By contrast, non-tradeable inflation, which is viewed as a better gauge of domestically generated price pressures, eased to 3.4% and matched the RBNZ's forecast. Electricity and local authority rates provided the largest upward pressure, while lower real estate services prices helped offset some of the increase.

The broadest measure of underlying inflation, CPI excluding the food group, household energy subgroup and vehicle fuels, also continued to ease, slipping to 2.5% from 2.6%. While it remains in the upper half of the RBNZ's 1–3% target band, the continued moderation suggests underlying inflation pressures are still moving in the right direction rather than becoming more entrenched.

Traders should now watch the release of the RBNZ's Sectoral Factor Model at 3pm Wellington time. The measure, which strips out temporary price movements to provide another gauge of underlying inflation, printed at 2.7% in the March quarter and could influence moves in New Zealand financial markets should it deliver a meaningful surprise.

What it means for the RBNZ

Source: Bloomberg

When all said and done, today's report is unlikely to materially alter the RBNZ's near-term thinking. Inflation remains above target and the central bank has already adopted an explicit tightening bias. Another 25 basis point increase in September still looks very likely and is close to fully priced, with the risk of a second move by October also deemed slightly more likely than not ahead of November's general election.

Further out, though, market pricing looks far too punchy. Overnight index swaps continue to imply close to five additional quarter-point increases by May next year, taking the OCR to around 3.75%.

That profile looks too aggressive given the broader economic backdrop. While inflation remains high, underlying price pressures continue to ease and there is still ample slack in the labour market, with little evidence that wage growth is accelerating in a way that would warrant taking policy deep into restrictive territory.

The next major test for that view will come on 13 August, when the RBNZ releases its latest Survey of Expectations. Of particular interest will be the two-year inflation expectations measure, which climbed to 2.53% in May from 2.37% previously.

Another meaningful acceleration would strengthen the case for additional tightening, potentially even a 50 basis point move, which can't be ruled out given some of the hawkish rhetoric from external members of the Monetary Policy Committee. But if inflation expectations fail to accelerate again, it would cast doubt on the degree of tightening currently priced into the OIS curve.

At face value, today's report may be interpreted as hawkish given headline inflation exceeded economists' forecasts. I'm not convinced that's the right read. The underlying detail tells a different story, particularly with the broadest measure of core inflation continuing to ease and tradables inflation coming in well below the RBNZ's own forecast.

That's just one of several factors to consider when assessing directional risk for the Kiwi dollar. While domestic rates remain an important driver, recent price action has also become increasingly sensitive to broader risk appetite and changes in US interest rate expectations. Starting with NZD/USD, here's how the technical picture stacks up.

The battleground for Kiwi bulls

Source: TradingView

The RBNZ's hawkish tilt has helped support NZD/USD over recent weeks, allowing the pair to reclaim a cluster of key medium and long-term moving averages.

For now, though, it's a game of ping-pong. Buyers continue to emerge on dips towards the 100-day moving average, while rallies are being capped ahead of resistance at 0.5860. That's the initial range to watch.

The oscillators continue to favour the bulls. RSI (14) remains comfortably above the neutral 50 level at 63, while MACD has crossed above its signal line and remains in positive territory.

Should the pair break decisively above 0.5860, the next upside level to watch is 0.5920, an area that repeatedly acted as both support and resistance during April, May and June. Above that, attention shifts to 0.5992, the double top established earlier this year.

On the downside, initial support is provided by the 100, 200 and 50-day moving averages, along with horizontal support at 0.5796, another level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in recent weeks. A break beneath the latter could open the door for a retracement towards 0.5747, with 0.5724 and the uptrend from the June lows the next levels to watch.

Breakdown keeps bears in control

Source: TradingView

As flagged earlier this month, AUD/NZD has broken below the uptrend from the June 2025 lows, with the pair also slipping beneath the 50 and 100-day moving averages. Along the way, it took out support at 1.2053 and 1.2000 before finding buyers at 1.1950.

For now, the pair is stuck in a narrow range between 1.2000 and 1.1950. We did see a bullish engulfing candle print on Monday following renewed upside in energy prices as the conflict in the Middle East escalated. However, that has not generated follow-through buying, with rallies continuing to stall ahead of 1.2000.

The message from the oscillators remains bearish. RSI (14) continues to set lower highs and sits well below the neutral 50 level at 33. That bearish message is being reinforced by MACD, which remains below its signal line and in negative territory.

Selling rallies and downside breaks remains the preferred strategy. Should the pair break decisively beneath 1.1950, there is little in the way of technical support until the 200-day moving average at 1.1835, followed by 1.1797, former resistance before February's upside breakout.

Should the pair reclaim 1.2000, the next upside levels to watch are 1.2053, followed by the confluence of the 100-day moving average and resistance at 1.2115. For now, though, selling rallies and downside breaks remains the preferred strategy.

From a fundamental perspective, with New Zealand's inflation report now out of the way, attention will quickly shift to Australia's labour force report on Thursday. Alongside broader risk sentiment, the release is likely to be influential on markets' assessment of the directional risks for the RBA cash rate moving forward.

USD/CAD Key Points Canadian inflation cooled more sharply than expected in June, easing concerns that the recent energy-driven increase was spreading across the broader economy. Headline CPI slowed to 2.8% y/y from 3.2% in May; Excluding gasoline, inflation held steady at 2.2% y/y. USD/CAD remains near a 1-month low, but a possible bullish engulfing candlestick pattern that would strengthen the argument for a near-term bottom.

A week after a similarly below-expectation report from the US, Canadian inflation cooled more sharply than expected in June, easing concerns that the recent energy-driven increase was spreading across the broader economy. Headline CPI slowed to 2.8% y/y from 3.2% in May, while prices fell -0.4% m/m. On a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI declined -0.1%.

The slowdown was largely driven by gasoline, which fell -10.2% from May as global oil prices retreated. Gasoline remained 20.5% more expensive than a year earlier, but that was well below May’s 33.2% increase. Excluding gasoline, inflation held steady at 2.2% y/y.

The underlying details were also encouraging. The Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median measures eased to 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively, leaving their average below the 2% target. Grocery inflation remained relatively firm at 3.9%, while World Cup-related demand pushed accommodation and air travel prices sharply higher. However, those increases were concentrated rather than widespread and are likely to dissipate soon with the tournament wrapping up this weekend.

For the Bank of Canada, the report supports the view that higher energy costs have not generated significant second-round inflation yet. With economic growth beginning to recover, the most likely outcome remains an extended hold at 2.25%, assuming oil prices stabilize and core inflation stays contained, though energy volatility from the ongoing conflict in Iran could still have a spillover impact on Canada’s oil-dependent economy in the coming months.

Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis: USD/CAD Daily Chart

Source: Tradingview, StoneX

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD is bouncing from support at its 50-day EMA near 1.4025, helped along by this morning’s softer-than-anticipated Canadian data. The North American pair remains near a 1-month low, but the combination of a BOC in stasis and the potential for safe-haven demand for the US dollar amid the re-escalating Iranian conflict could boost the pair as we move through the week. Current price action is showing a possible bullish engulfing candlestick pattern that would strengthen the argument for a near-term bottom.

Looking ahead, previous-support-turned-resistance at 1.4130 is the next level of resistance to watch before the 1+ year highs in the low-1.4200s, whereas a break below the 50-day EMA near 1.4020 could target the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July rally below 1.4000.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX

Morgan Stanley expects the Pound to weaken against the Australian Dollar over the coming months, forecasting GBP/AUD will fall to 1.82, as improving sentiment towards Australia contrasts with growing political and fiscal risks in the UK.

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) traded around 1.93 on Monday after rebounding from June lows below 1.90, leaving the pair close to its highest levels of the year despite the bank believing the rally has gone too far.

Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.917965 (-0.49%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.345149 (-0.02%)
Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD): 0.701342 (+0.47%)

Morgan Stanley remains one of the more bearish investment banks on Sterling, arguing that much of the recent optimism surrounding the UK's political outlook has already been priced into the currency.

"We are bearish GBP."

The bank says Sterling rallied after reports that the incoming government could appoint a more fiscally conservative Chancellor than initially feared, but believes investors have already discounted much of that positive news.

"We think the market has priced in the 'good news' from the potential for a more fiscally conservative Chancellor than initial market expectations."

Morgan Stanley adds that there is still little clarity on the new government's economic agenda, while attention is likely to shift towards difficult fiscal decisions ahead of the autumn Budget.

"With so much good news already in the price, we think the hurdle for further upside surprises has moved higher."

In contrast, the bank retains a constructive view on the Australian Dollar. It points to resilient business confidence, attractive carry returns and expectations that Australian front-end yields will remain relatively elevated.

"We remain bullish on AUD."

Morgan Stanley believes steady labour market conditions and relatively hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia expectations should continue to attract investors seeking higher-yielding currencies.

Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Morgan Stanley Expects Sterling to Give Back Recent Gains Reflecting these contrasting outlooks, Morgan Stanley continues to recommend a short GBP/AUD trade.

The bank has a target of 1.82, representing a decline of around 6% from current levels.

"GBP/AUD faces downward pressure from elevated risk appetite and a potential increase in GBP negative risk premium."

Morgan Stanley believes the combination of stronger Australian fundamentals and rising UK fiscal uncertainty should allow the Australian Dollar to outperform Sterling over the coming months, particularly if global risk sentiment remains supportive.

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trading around 1.1440 after recovering from June lows near 1.1325, but Goldman Sachs believes options markets are signalling renewed downside risks for the pair.

EUR/USD has remained relatively stable through July, gaining around 0.3% so far this month after falling more than 2% in June.

Goldman Sachs highlights developments in the options market, particularly swaptions, as a warning that investors may be preparing for greater downside exposure in the Euro-Dollar pair.

The bank argues that while EUR/USD has been supported by a period of Dollar weakness and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, the balance of risks has become less favourable for the Euro.

A key concern is that markets may have become too comfortable with the recent range-bound environment. Renewed volatility, changes in interest-rate expectations or a return of Dollar demand could quickly challenge EUR/USD support.

Goldman Sachs continues to monitor the interaction between rates markets and currency positioning, with options pricing suggesting investors are increasingly willing to protect against a move lower.

The Euro also faces challenges from the broader macro backdrop. While expectations for further European Central Bank tightening have provided some support, growth concerns and energy-related risks remain potential headwinds.

With EUR/USD currently holding close to the 1.14 area, Goldman Sachs sees the options market as highlighting the possibility that the next significant move could be lower rather than a continuation of the recent recovery.

Summary:

The EUR/TRY pair is testing a major 54.00 resistance level, a psychological barrier that previously triggered a significant technical rejection of the euro Persistent double-digit inflation and high energy import costs continue to structurally weaken the Turkish lira against the euro’s ongoing upward momentum Traders are awaiting the July 23 central bank policy meeting, where any unexpected hawkish signals could spark a sharp rally in the lira The euro has regained some ground against the Turkish lira after a period of decline in late June. The pair is currently trading near the 54.00 level, which has previously acted as a resistance point. This technical level raises questions about the potential for further advances and the continuation of the broader upward trend.

Why the Lira Keeps Losing Ground Several factors are contributing to the lira’s continued depreciation. Turkey is experiencing persistent high inflation, with the annual rate at 32.11% in June, a slight decrease from 32.61% in May. This figure remains significantly above the central bank’s medium-term objectives.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has maintained its policy rate at 37% for three consecutive meetings. This pause followed an aggressive easing cycle, which was complicated by rising energy prices due to Middle East conflict, impacting the path to lower inflation.

Turkey relies heavily on imported energy, so when Brent crude oil prices jump, it puts a strain on the country’s trade balance. This forces local businesses to keep selling lira to buy foreign currency to pay for fuel.

Governor Fatih Karahan has clearly stated that the bank needs to see more solid proof of inflation slowing down and better clarity on the geopolitical situation before they start cutting rates again. The next policy meeting is on July 23. Until then, the central bank’s message is basically wait and see.

Can the EUR/TRY Pair Break 54.00? Regarding the potential for the EUR/TRY pair to break above 54.00, the underlying macroeconomic conditions have not substantially changed, suggesting a continued test of recent highs. Analysts describe the lira’s depreciation as a managed, gradual movement rather than a sharp devaluation.

The CBRT has intervened periodically to moderate volatility without reversing the overall trend. This approach typically results in incremental movements toward resistance levels, which is consistent with the pair’s two previous attempts at the 54.00 mark.

For a decisive break, we’d probably need one of a fresh worsening of Turkish inflation expectations, a hawkish surprise from the ECB, or renewed geopolitical escalation pushing energy prices even higher. Without one of those catalysts, the pair might just keep consolidating right below that barrier.

If the EUR/TRY fails to break past this barrier over the next few sessions, a technical double-top pattern could emerge. This would likely trigger quick profit-taking by short-term momentum traders, potentially sending the pair sliding back down to test support at 53.50 and 53.12.

The Euro is also fighting its own battle. Softening economic growth indicators in the Eurozone or a shift by the ECB towards a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle could diminish the euro’s inherent buying support, thereby capping upside potential for the EUR/TRY.

Why is EUR/TRY struggling near 54.00?

This level marked a prior rejection point, and with no fresh catalyst yet, the pair is consolidating there rather than breaking through decisively.

Where does the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s primary benchmark one-week repo rate currently sit?

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has held its key one-week repo interest rate at 37%.

Why does a rise in global oil prices structurally weaken the Turkish lira against major foreign currencies?

 Turkey imports nearly all its energy. Therefore, surging oil costs widen its trade deficit by forcing domestic firms to sell lira for foreign currencies.

The GBP/JPY cross scales higher for the second straight day and climbs to a fresh weekly top, around the 217.70 region, during the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Moreover, spot prices remain within striking distance of the highest level since January 2008 and seem poised to appreciate further amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.

Despite looming intervention risks, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance on the back of the wide gap in borrowing costs between Japan and other major economies, including the UK. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised the short-term policy rate in June to 1% or, the highest level since 1995, while the Bank of England's (BoE) base rate sits at 3.75%. This leaves an approximate gap of 275 basis points (bps), which keeps the so-called JPY carry trade active and continues to act as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross.

Meanwhile, Japan's economy is highly vulnerable to energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz as it relies on the Middle East for over 90% of crude oil imports. The closure of the critical waterway, along with a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, turns out to be another factor undermining the JPY. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, benefits from fading UK political uncertainty, hawkish BoE signals, and modest US Dollar (USD) weakness. This validates the positive outlook for the GBP/JPY cross and favors bulls.

Speaking before the Treasury Select Committee, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned on Tuesday of the potential effects of the resumption of the US-Iran conflict and that the event has demonstrated that inflation has not eased enough. Traders were quick to fully price in at least one 25 bps rate increase by year-end, and a possible first hike as early as September. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/JPY cross is to the upside, and any corrective pullback is more likely to be seen as an opportunity for bullish traders.

Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate rallied on Tuesday after softer-than-expected US inflation data prompted investors to scale back expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3411, up approximately 0.5% on the day.

Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.338178 (+0.24%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.142849 (+0.40%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.13999 (-0.17%)

DAILY RECAP:

A clear US Dollar (USD) selling bias emerged on Tuesday after the latest US consumer price index showed inflationary pressures eased by more than expected last month.

June's Consumer Price Index reported that headline inflation slowed from 4.2% to 3.5% year-on-year, comfortably below forecasts for a more modest easing to 3.8%. Core inflation also undershot expectations, with annual core CPI easing to 2.6%.

In response, financial markets trimmed some of their more hawkish policy expectations for the Federal Reserve, with the odds for a September interest rate hike falling from around 70% to 50%.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) found support during Tuesday's session as investors doubled down on bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will have to raise borrowing costs again.

The hawkish shift in market sentiment stems from a fresh spike in global energy markets. With conflict flaring up once more in the Gulf, the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane has been blocked, raising fears of a renewed inflation shock that could force the BoE’s hand before 2026 draws to a close.

Even so, Sterling's rally was tempered by cautious commentary from the head of the BoE.

Appearing before the Treasury Select Committee, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey struck a sober tone. He pointed out that the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East poses a serious threat to financial stability, while simultaneously reminding lawmakers that Britain's sluggish economic growth remains a heavy drag on the domestic outlook.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Producer Prices in Focus Looking ahead, the next catalyst of movement for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will be the publication of the latest US producer price index on Wednesday.

A cooling in factory gate prices could weigh on the ‘Greenback’ in midweek trade, as we could see a further trimming of Fed rate-hike bets if there are further signs that US inflationary pressures are easing.

Meanwhile, movement in the Pound looks set to remain limited on Wednesday amid a lull in UK data ahead of Thursday’s GDP release.

Summary:

USD/CNY slipped below 6.78 after the People's Bank of China set another stronger-than-expected daily fixing, reinforcing support for the Chinese yuan. Markets see the PBOC allowing gradual yuan appreciation while avoiding excessive volatility through its daily reference rate and liquidity operations. Traders are now watching whether USD/CNY can break below 6.75 or rebound toward the 6.80 resistance zone as US inflation and Federal Reserve expectations remain in focus. The USD/CNY exchange rate edged lower on Tuesday as the Chinese yuan strengthened after another closely watched currency fixing from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). The move reinforced expectations that policymakers remain comfortable with a gradual appreciation of the renminbi while continuing to manage the pace of gains.

USD/CNY traded around 6.77 during the session, hovering near its lowest levels in several months as investors balanced China’s policy signals against expectations for US monetary policy.

Why Is USD/CNY Falling? The latest decline followed another stronger daily reference rate from the People’s Bank of China. The PBOC set the USD/CNY central parity rate at 6.7972, following Monday’s fixing of 6.7989, which marked the first official fixing below the 6.80 level since February 2023.

Although the latest fixing remained slightly weaker than market estimates, investors interpreted the move as another indication that Chinese authorities are becoming more comfortable with a firmer yuan after months of currency stability.

China allows the yuan to trade within a 2% band around the daily reference rate, making the fixing one of the most closely watched policy tools in global foreign exchange markets.

PBOC Continues to Support Liquidity Alongside the currency fixing, the central bank injected 224 billion yuan through seven-day reverse repurchase agreements while keeping the policy rate unchanged at 1.40%.

The liquidity injection helps maintain stable funding conditions across China’s banking system without signaling a broader shift in monetary policy.

The combination of steady liquidity support and a stronger currency fixing suggests policymakers are attempting to balance economic growth with currency stability as global financial markets remain volatile.

Chinese Yuan Strength Reflects Policy Confidence Recent policy actions suggest Beijing is allowing the yuan to strengthen gradually rather than aggressively defending a weaker exchange rate.

A stronger currency can help reduce imported inflation, improve investor confidence and support capital inflows into Chinese financial markets.

However, authorities also remain cautious about allowing excessive appreciation that could hurt exporters, particularly as global demand remains uneven.

That explains why the official fixing has strengthened only gradually instead of moving sharply below market expectations.

US Dollar Outlook Remains a Key Driver of USD/CNY The US dollar continues to influence the direction of USD/CNY. Investors are awaiting fresh US inflation data and additional comments from Federal Reserve officials for clues about the path of US interest rates.

If expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening increase, the dollar could recover and limit further yuan gains. Conversely, softer US economic data may place additional pressure on the greenback, allowing USD/CNY to continue moving lower.

USD/CNY Technical Outlook The broader trend suggests USD/CNY remains under moderate downside pressure after slipping below the important 6.80 psychological level. The Bloomberg chart shows the pair trading near 6.7705, down around 0.14% during the latest session, reflecting continued demand for the yuan.

Immediate support is located around 6.75, a level that has attracted buyers in recent sessions. A sustained move below this zone could expose the pair to fresh downside as yuan strength accelerates.

On the upside, 6.80 remains the first major resistance level. A recovery above that area could encourage a move toward 6.83, particularly if US dollar strength returns following upcoming inflation data or hawkish Federal Reserve commentary. For now, the technical picture points to range-bound trading, with policy signals from the PBOC and US macroeconomic data likely to determine the next directional move.

What Investors Are Watching Next Market participants will continue monitoring:

Upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve expectations. Future PBOC daily currency fixings for signs of further yuan support. Capital flows into Chinese financial markets. China’s economic data and policy announcements. Global risk sentiment and US-China trade developments. Any additional fixings below the 6.80 level could reinforce expectations that Chinese authorities are prepared to tolerate a stronger yuan, while stronger US economic data could slow the recent decline in USD/CNY.

Why is USD/CNY falling?

USD/CNY is declining because the Chinese yuan has strengthened after the People’s Bank of China set stronger daily reference rates, signaling support for gradual currency appreciation.

What is the PBOC fixing?

The PBOC fixing is the daily reference exchange rate set by China’s central bank. The yuan is allowed to trade within a 2% band around this official midpoint.

What are the key USD/CNY levels to watch?

Key support is around 6.75, while the first major resistance remains near 6.80, followed by 6.83.

Why does the PBOC manage the yuan?

The central bank uses the daily fixing to maintain currency stability, support economic growth, control inflation and prevent excessive volatility in foreign exchange markets.

In the latest bank forecasts, the Indian rupee could recover against the US dollar over the coming months as foreign bond inflows return and domestic liquidity conditions improve, according to HSBC. The bank recommends selling the USD/INR exchange rate, arguing that recent policy measures should encourage overseas investment into India while the Reserve Bank of India is likely to resist a renewed rise towards recent highs.

USD/INR was trading around 96.32 on Tuesday, having gained 1.75% during July and more than 7% since the beginning of the year.

The exchange rate recently reached a 2026 high around 97.12, placing the rupee close to levels that HSBC believes could trigger a more defensive response from policymakers.

Why Foreign Bond Inflows Could Support the Rupee HSBC says tax incentives for overseas bond investors included in the government's June foreign exchange package have already helped attract capital back into India.

Further inflows could follow if Bloomberg announces the inclusion of Indian debt in one of its bond indices.

Index inclusion would encourage international funds tracking the benchmark to increase their exposure to Indian government debt, generating additional demand for the rupee.

HSBC also notes that foreign investors have recently shifted from heavy equity selling to modest inflows, suggesting sentiment towards Indian assets may be stabilising.

How the FCNR Deposit Scheme Could Help Another potential source of support is the Foreign Currency Non-Resident deposit scheme.

HSBC says the initiative is beginning to gain traction as deposits are mobilised and exchanged with the Reserve Bank of India.

As more of these funds enter the domestic financial system, the resulting increase in rupee liquidity should have positive spillover effects for local sentiment, economic activity and Indian asset markets.

Combined with stronger foreign investment flows, this could help reverse some of the pressure that has driven USD/INR sharply higher during 2026.

Why the RBI May Defend the Rupee HSBC does not expect the Reserve Bank of India to sell substantial amounts of US dollars from its foreign exchange swap book.

Nevertheless, the bank believes officials are likely to remain defensive and prevent USD/INR from rising materially beyond current levels.

Allowing the pair to return towards 96-97 during the implementation of the government's currency package would raise questions over the effectiveness and cost of the measures.

This suggests the RBI may lean against further rupee weakness, particularly if USD/INR approaches its year-to-date high around 97.12.

What Could Push USD/INR Higher? HSBC acknowledges that the rupee still faces several risks.

India's dependence on imported energy means another rise in oil prices could increase demand for US dollars and widen the country's import bill.

Seasonal dividend outflows, renewed foreign selling of Indian equities and approaching non-deliverable forward maturities could also produce periods of rupee weakness.

The exchange rate has already risen from below 94.80 at the end of June to above 96.30, demonstrating that these risks remain significant.

What's the Forecast for the US Dollar versus the Indian Rupee? HSBC favours a lower USD/INR exchange rate and recommends selling the pair.

The bank expects returning foreign bond inflows, the FCNR deposit programme and resistance from the Reserve Bank of India to limit further gains in USD/INR.

While the pair may remain volatile around current levels, HSBC believes the balance of risks favours a stronger rupee rather than a sustained move beyond the recent 96-97 region.

USD/INR Forecast FAQIs HSBC bullish on the Indian rupee?

Yes. HSBC recommends selling USD/INR, which implies that it expects the rupee to strengthen against the US dollar.

What is the current USD/INR exchange rate?

USD/INR was trading around 96.32 on July 14. The pair was up approximately 1.75% for the month and 7.06% since the beginning of 2026.

Why does HSBC expect USD/INR to fall?

HSBC points to returning foreign bond investment, improving domestic liquidity and the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of India will resist a further rise in the exchange rate.

Could USD/INR rise above 97?

It remains possible if oil prices increase or foreign capital leaves Indian markets. However, HSBC expects the RBI to become increasingly defensive around the 96-97 region.

What are the main risks to the Indian rupee?

Higher oil prices, renewed equity outflows, seasonal dividend payments and non-deliverable forward maturities could all place fresh pressure on the Indian currency.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading practically flat against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Tuesday, consolidating gains after a 0.7% rally on Monday, boosted by rising geopolitical tensions and hawkish Comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller.

Waller said on Monday that the Fed would have to tighten its monetary policy in the near-term if inflation remains above the 2% target. Investors brought forward rate hike bets, following Waller's comments, and sent the US Dollar higher across the board.

The focus on Tuesday is on June’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is highly likely to confirm Waller’s expectations with figures well beyond target. These data are likely to frame the first session of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress, which is due later on the day. The risk is skewed to the upside for the US Dollar.

Technical Anañysis: The next bullish target is the 0.8170 area

USD/CHF broke the year-to-date high at 0.8130, confirming that the corrective reaction of the last two weeks has been completed, with the impulsive candle on the daily chart suggesting that bulls have taken control. Momentum indicators support this view, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) in positive territory without yet reaching extreme overbought levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line attempting to cross the Signal line, which is a bullish sign.

Immediate resistance is at the mentioned high, at 0.8150, although the confluence of the July 2025 top and the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late June-early July reversal, at 0.8170, seems a more plausible target. Further up, the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mentioned cycle is at 0.8210.

A confirmation below the previous YTD high, in the 0.8130 area, is likely to find support at the 0.8070-0.8080 area, where the bottom of the ascending channel from early June lows meets Monday's lows. Below here, bullish momentum would fade, and the July 2 low, near 0.8010, would return to the focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.04%0.23%0.36%-0.39%0.10%-0.55%0.69%EUR-0.04%0.18%0.33%-0.44%0.01%-0.60%0.65%GBP-0.23%-0.18%0.11%-0.61%-0.17%-0.77%0.51%JPY-0.36%-0.33%-0.11%-0.82%-0.26%-0.95%0.28%CAD0.39%0.44%0.61%0.82%0.57%-0.12%1.13%AUD-0.10%-0.01%0.17%0.26%-0.57%-0.61%0.54%NZD0.55%0.60%0.77%0.95%0.12%0.61%1.30%CHF-0.69%-0.65%-0.51%-0.28%-1.13%-0.54%-1.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate slipped on Monday as renewed conflict between the US and Iran lifted oil prices and supported the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.

At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8931, down around 0.2% on the day.

Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.891014 (-0.36%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.611545 (-0.28%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.41364 (-0.15%)

DAILY RECAP:

The crude-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) firmed on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East triggered a rise in global oil prices.

After a lull in the fighting on Friday, hostilities between the US and Iran resumed on Sunday following an Iranian strike on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The US responded by attacking Iranian targets, with Tehran further retaliating by targeting US allies in neighbouring Gulf states.

Markets are growing increasingly concerned that the conflict could intensify further, limiting shipping in the region. As a result, oil prices rose around 4% at the open on Monday. Although crude trimmed some of these gains as the session went on, CAD remained supported.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) was mixed on Monday as a lack of UK economic data left the currency rudderless.

Sterling was able to avoid steep losses against the rising Canadian Dollar thanks to ongoing political optimism in the UK, with GBP investors remaining confident that the political uncertainty that has dogged the Pound over the past year was coming to an end.

Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: BoE Comments to Impact the Pound? Looking forward, Tuesday’s session starts with a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey.

Bailey has stuck to a cautious tone in recent weeks, arguing that the bank ought to wait and see how inflation plays out before considering adjusting policy. However, with global energy prices rising amid renewed US-Iran tensions, the Pound could tick higher if the BoE chief strikes a more hawkish chord.

Meanwhile, oil price dynamics are likely to drive the ‘Loonie’. CAD could remain supported if crude continues to climb amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Japanese yen volatility has returned as traders unwind record short positions ahead of US CPI. With USD/JPY testing major resistance below 163 and intervention risks lingering, futures positioning suggests gains may become harder to come by. Here are the key USD/JPY and AUD/JPY trade setups to watch.

View related analysis:

Yen Bears Capitulate, US Dollar Nearing Sentiment Extreme? | COT report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bounce Losing Steam Ahead of US CPI Gold Price Outlook: Bulls Weigh the Odds of Another Bounce Above $4,000 How to Read the COT Report to Track Forex Market Sentiment Japanese Yen Short Covering Puts USD/JPY at a Critical Juncture Japanese Yen Volatility Returns Ahead of US CPI Volatility has perked up for the Japanese yen over the past few weeks, and it has cut both ways. A market-led selloff heading into the 2 July non-farm payrolls (NFP) report saw USD/JPY fall by as much as 200 pips before recouping those losses over the following four days. On Friday, USD/JPY fell more than 100 pips on reports that Japan's largest pension fund had been instructed to purchase domestic assets.

This is quite a significant development because it suggests Japan is exploring alternative ways of supporting the yen besides traditional currency intervention. It could prove a shrewd approach, allowing policymakers to avoid swimming against the tide while the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance and US economic data continues to outperform.

Source: ICE, TradingView

Yen Gains May Be Harder to Come By I think the bigger takeaway is that easy gains on USD/JPY may be harder to come by, but that is not the same as saying the pair cannot move higher. The combination of traders remaining wary of potential intervention, alongside efforts to support the yen without directly intervening, could allow USD/JPY to grind higher while keeping volatility elevated. Put another way, the broader uptrend may remain intact, but traders should expect more frequent bouts of two-way price action.

With USD/JPY testing resistance ahead of today's US inflation report, traders are on high alert for either a bullish breakout or a sharp reversal. Markets continue to price in a hawkish Fed, so it may not take much of a downside CPI surprise to shake the market from these elevated levels, particularly as Japanese yen bears continue to capitulate in the futures market.

Japanese Yen Futures Positioning: USD/JPY COT Report I have been warning for several weeks about the potential sentiment extreme in Japanese yen futures. Gross short positions had climbed to record highs among both asset managers and large speculators, while long positions also edged higher despite the yen's persistent downtrend (USD/JPY uptrend). That pushed net-short exposure close to two-year highs for both groups of traders.

However, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed a clear reduction in bearish positioning last week. Gross short exposure was cut by a combined 48.8k contracts across both trader groups, falling 11.6% among large speculators and 12.7% among asset managers. Long positions increased only marginally, making this a story of short covering rather than fresh bullish conviction.

The conditions are not yet in place for a sustained yen rally, but if bearish traders continue heading for the exit, gains on USD/JPY may become harder to come by than they have been over recent months.

Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen The 1-hour chart shows a decent uptrend from Monday's low. Prices are testing the weekly R1 pivot point while remaining above their daily, weekly and monthly VWAPs. We could see an early breakout attempt during today's session towards the cycle highs, although traders should note the July VPOC at 162.69, which aligns with last week's high and could provide resistance.

Bulls may also want to tread carefully around the cycle highs and take note of the pre-NFP price action, as it could trigger another pre-emptive pullback. Even so, several support levels are clustered around 162, including the 2024 high, the weekly pivot point and Monday's VPOC.

It could then come down to the US inflation report to determine whether we see a meaningful breakout or a deeper pullback. While a hot CPI report could tempt bulls to push above 163, I suspect the bigger move may come from a softer-than-expected print. That could see USD/JPY rotate lower within its recent choppy range between 160 and 162.50.

Ultimately, I suspect CPI will need to surprise decisively to the upside for any breakout above 163 to prove sustainable.

Source: ICE, TradingView

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com

AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen Compared with USD/JPY, volatility remains lower on AUD/JPY. Yet it has caught my attention because it presents several clusters of support and resistance that could provide attractive trading setups. It also partially removes some of the event risk associated with the US inflation report.

The daily chart shows prices oscillating between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs. Momentum has turned slightly lower from last week's high and monthly pivot point, while Monday's shooting star signals a failed attempt to retest Friday's doji high.

Even if prices spike above last week's high, the June VPOC sits at 113.09 and could provide resistance, followed by the May VPOC at 113.48. While 112 may offer initial support, a break below that level brings the 100-day EMA into focus, near the Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervention low.

Source: ICE, TradingView

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

Summary:

EUR/USD has slipped as renewed US-Iran tensions strengthened safe-haven demand for the US dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher. A break below 1.1370 could expose the pair to 1.1350 and 1.1300, while recovery attempts remain capped near the 1.1475 to 1.1500 area. US inflation data is the next major catalyst, with a hotter CPI reading likely to reinforce dollar strength and increase pressure on the euro. EUR/USD came under renewed selling pressure on Monday as fresh military exchanges between the United States and Iran revived demand for the US dollar and lifted global energy prices.

The pair struggled to build on last week’s recovery and moved back toward the lower end of its recent range as investors prepared for the latest US Consumer Price Index report. Higher crude oil prices have added to inflation concerns, pushing US Treasury yields higher and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates restrictive for longer.

The Dollar Index has recovered toward the 101.00 area after ending the previous week lower. For EUR/USD, the stronger greenback has brought the 1.1370 support level back into focus, with traders assessing whether the pair can stabilize or extend its decline toward 1.1350 and 1.1300.

Why Is EUR/USD Falling Today? The latest weakness in EUR/USD reflects a combination of geopolitical risk, higher oil prices and rising US bond yields.

Fresh attacks between the US and Iran over the weekend raised concerns about the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said the key waterway had been closed again, while Washington maintained that commercial traffic could continue.

The conflicting claims sent crude oil prices sharply higher and revived concerns that another energy shock could keep global inflation elevated.

Higher oil prices tend to support the US dollar during periods of market stress. They can also place additional pressure on the euro because the Eurozone relies heavily on imported energy, leaving the region more exposed to rising fuel costs.

US CPI Could Decide the Dollar’s Next Move The US inflation report is likely to become the most important driver for EUR/USD in the near term.

A stronger-than-expected CPI reading would reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher interest rates or consider additional tightening later this year. That outcome would likely push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, increasing the risk of EUR/USD falling through its current support zone.

A softer inflation report would create a different setup. It could reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten policy further and allow EUR/USD to recover some of its recent losses.

However, the impact of softer inflation could be limited if oil prices continue rising or geopolitical tensions worsen.

Euro Recovery Struggles Near 1.1500 EUR/USD recently recovered from lows around 1.1325 and moved above 1.1420, but the advance stalled before the pair could establish a sustained move through the 1.1475 to 1.1500 region.

That failure suggests sellers remain active whenever the euro approaches higher levels.

The pair now faces an important test around 1.1370. A clear move below that level would increase the likelihood of a decline toward 1.1350, followed by the June low near 1.1325. If selling pressure persists, the psychological 1.1300 level could become the next target.

On the upside, EUR/USD would need to recover above 1.1450 before challenging 1.1475 and 1.1500 again. A sustained break through 1.1500 would weaken the immediate bearish outlook and could support a broader recovery toward 1.1580.

ECB and Fed Policy Expectations Remain Divided Interest-rate expectations on both sides of the Atlantic continue to shape the EUR/USD outlook.

The Federal Reserve remains focused on inflation after stronger energy prices complicated the outlook for consumer prices. Recent weakness in US employment reduced expectations of immediate tightening, but the latest geopolitical escalation has prevented markets from fully dismissing the possibility of another rate increase.

In Europe, softer core inflation has reduced expectations of further European Central Bank tightening. That leaves the euro with less policy support, particularly if US inflation remains elevated and Treasury yields continue climbing.

Comments from Federal Reserve and ECB officials will therefore remain important as traders look for any change in the policy outlook.

EUR/USD Outlook The near-term EUR/USD price forecast remains cautious as the pair struggles to hold its recent recovery.

The US dollar is benefiting from safe-haven demand, rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields, while the euro faces renewed pressure from Europe’s exposure to imported energy costs.

A break below 1.1370 would put 1.1350 and 1.1300 within reach. However, softer US inflation or an easing of Middle East tensions could weaken the dollar and help EUR/USD return toward 1.1450 and 1.1500.

For now, US CPI and developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are likely to determine whether the pair stabilizes or begins another leg lower.

Why is EUR/USD falling today?

EUR/USD is falling as renewed US-Iran tensions increase safe-haven demand for the US dollar. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields have also strengthened expectations that US interest rates may remain elevated.

What are the key EUR/USD levels to watch?

The main support levels are 1.1370, 1.1350 and 1.1300. Resistance is located near 1.1450, followed by 1.1475 and 1.1500.

How could US CPI affect EUR/USD?

A hotter US CPI reading could strengthen the dollar and push EUR/USD lower by increasing expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. Softer inflation could weaken the greenback and support a euro recovery.

Key Points:Rising producer prices, import costs and bond yields keep another BOJ rate hike in focus.USDJPY remains bullish above 160.30, with a break above 163.70 opening the door toward 175.GBPJPY may target 220, while EURJPY could extend toward 190.50 if key support levels hold.

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The interest rate outlook for Japan remains uncertain as inflationary pressure continues to build. The producer prices are rising, import costs remain high and government bond yields have moved to multi-decade highs. These trends support the case for another Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike later this year. But the BOJ may still wait for stronger wage growth and increase in consumer inflation. This leaves the yen sensitive to policy signals, while USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY remain technically strong.

BOJ Rate Hike Outlook Strengthens as Japan Inflation Rises Japan’s producer price index (PPI) increased by 7.1% YoY in June. This beat the market expectation of 6.8% and exceeded the upwardly revised 6.6% gain in May. The increase indicates that businesses are passing their increased input costs to customers faster than in the past. The trend could increase the consumer inflation and lead the BOJ to tighten again.

According to the data, the fuel prices increased by 22.8% while non-ferrous metal prices jumped by 39.2%. Energy prices were pushed up by the Middle East conflict while the AI material demand has lifted the metal prices. These pressures may remain high if tensions continue and supply conditions remain tight. This suggests that the BOJ may hike the interest rate in October.

A low yen is putting on a new layer of inflation. The import prices continued to rise as weak yen and higher energy costs raised the cost of imported goods. The chart below shows that Japan’s imports increased 12.5% to JPY 9,890.2 billion in May 2026. Now the BOJ must decide whether the higher import prices will spread into wages and consumer prices or remain at the wholesale level.

Japan Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs on Inflation Fears Japanese government bond yields are also pointing toward a higher interest rate environment. The 10-year JGB bond yield rose to a 2.90%, the highest rate since September 1996. It rose during nine consecutive sessions since 26 June, in response to rising oil prices, higher inflation and concerns about Japan’s fiscal health.

The strong drop in yields on Friday does not change the bullish trend. Rising yields suggest that the bond investors want greater compensation for the long term inflation risks.

The long term bond yields have increased with bigger momentum. The 20-year yield rose to 3.89%, while the 30-year yield reached 4.03%. The 40-year yield advanced to 4.055%. These moves indicate that investors are worried about the big government spending plans and that the policy may stay too loose and inflation will continue to rise.

But the shorter end of the yield curve is sending a more cautious signal. The 2-year yield reached to 1.445% and the 5-year yield reached to 1.99%. The yield gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields has increased significantly as seen in the chart below.

The steepening reflects a greater sense of inflation risk in the long end, and less confidence that the BOJ will hike soon. This suggests that BOJ may wait for stronger consumer prices and wages to increase its policy rate from 1% to 1.25%.

USDJPY Forecast: BOJ Rate Hike Risk Challenges Dollar Strength US–Japan Yield Gap Narrows as Japanese Yields Rise The interest rate outlook creates mixed environment for USDJPY. The yen should find support with higher Japanese yields and the prospect of another BOJ rate hike. A more hawkish BOJ could reduce the yield gap between Japan and the U.S. This would detract from any yen funded carry trades and may potentially lead to a lower USDJPY.

The chart below shows that the Japanese yields have increased much faster since 2022. But the U.S. yields have remained relatively high. As a result, the yield gap between the two countries has narrowed. This trend reduces the interest rate advantage of holding dollars over the yen. This may provide support for the Japanese currency. But the U.S. yields remain higher so the dollar still retains an important yield advantage.

But the low yen value still plays a crucial role in Japan’s inflation issues. As energy import prices go up, the demand for foreign currencies and the pressure on the yen increase. This might keep USDJPY high until the BOJ gives more clear indication of what it will do next. Any delay of the next rate hike would be positive for USDJPY while guidance of an October increase could trigger an import yen recovery.

USDJPY Break Above 163.70 Opens the Door to 175 From technical perspective, USDJPY is consolidating at the pivotal area of 160 to 162. The price is compressing within this region before an upside breakout. A break above this zone would likely open the door for strong surge in USDJPY toward the 175 target. This target is defined by the ascending channel pattern that extends from the 2023 lows.

The consolidation around this important region is also visible on the short term 4-hour chart. It shows that the pair is now consolidating between 160.30 and 163.70. The range is widening and prices are compressing within an ascending broadening wedge pattern. A break above 163.70 would indicate a stronger rally in USDJPY toward 166. But 160.30 remains strong support in the short term. Any correction is considered a buying opportunity for traders to push the pair higher.

GBPJPY Forecast: 218 Breakout Opens the Door to 220 Higher Japan rate expectations may also put pressure on GBPJPY. The very large interest rate differential between the United Kingdom and Japan has been good for the pound. But this advantage may weaken if the BOJ hikes the rates again to 1.25%. The higher Japanese bond yields could encourage investors to reduce carry trades and move capital back to yen.

But the pair may still be supported if Bank of England maintains higher rates or takes a conservative approach to rate cuts. Thus, GBPJPY will be reliant on both central banks’ relative directionality. The most bearish risk would be a hawkish BOJ and a softer Bank of England outlook.

GBPJPY also shows strong positive price action. This positive price action is reflected in the formation of inverted head and shoulders pattern from January 2026 to April 2026.

This bullish consolidation pattern broke higher in April 2026. After the breakout, the pair continued to rally on the strength of the pound and the weakness of the Japanese yen. The pair has already broken 216.30 and is now dropping back toward support to attract buyers. The 215.60 to 216.30 area remains strong support. A break above the 218 level would likely push the pair to further highs.

EURJPY Forecast: Bullish Trend Targets 190.50 Eurozone rate expectations are not that aggressive. Therefore, EURJPY could be more responsive to BOJ communication. If the European Central Bank pivots towards easier policy ahead of the BOJ’s next rate increase, the interest rate spread between Europe and Japan will narrow. This would provide support for the yen and increase the risk of a drop in EURJPY.

The outlook also depends on the global risk sentiments. The escalation in the conflict in the Middle East would drive up energy costs for Japan and Europe. But imported fuel needs could exert pressure on the yen in the near term for Japan. The EURJPY could hold steady ahead of the BOJ. But a clear sign that the bank will hike rates in October or at year’s end could generate a deeper pullback.

EURJPY also remains strong and is consolidating within rising trend lines. The immediate support remains at 183.50. The pair is also supported by the 200-day SMA at 182.80. If EURJPY continues higher, the immediate target remains 190.50. As long as the 180 level holds in EURJPY, the next move in the pair will likely be higher. The 50-day and 200-day SMAs are rising which indicates that any correction may attract new buyers.

Final Words The interest rate outlook in Japan remains tilted towards further tightening. The producer prices are high, import costs are increasing and bond yields are rising. These factors suggest another BOJ rate hike. But the central bank might still wait for the clear signals from wages and consumer inflation. A rate hike from 1% to 1.25% could be on the cards later this year if energy prices remain elevated and the yen remains weak.

If BOJ hints at a rate hike in October or at the end of the year, the yen could get some support. But the technical picture of USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY remains bullish. A break above 163.70 in USDJPY would open the door for a rally to 175. GBPJPY might push higher towards 220 and EURJPY could head to 190.50.

Read more: Weak Jobs Data Hits Fed Hike Odds as Dollar Tests Support

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Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.

Editors’ Picks

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has slipped back towards 1.1415 as investors continue to favour the US Dollar following resilient US economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.

HSBC believes EUR/USD is likely to face renewed downside pressure as markets shift their focus back to interest-rate differentials.

The bank notes that geopolitical concerns in the Middle East have eased, reducing one source of support for the Dollar. However, it argues that renewed disruption to shipping routes could quickly restore safe-haven demand for the US currency.

According to HSBC, firm US labour market conditions and sticky inflation continue to justify a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, keeping longer-term yield support firmly behind the Dollar.

The bank also highlights that Eurozone inflation has cooled, but underlying price pressures remain elevated, leaving the European Central Bank in a difficult position.

HSBC argues that "the EUR loses out on fundamentals", with interest-rate differentials now re-emerging as the dominant driver of EUR/USD.

The bank adds that the outlook could deteriorate further if energy prices rise again, warning that renewed disruption in the Middle East would increase stagflation risks for the Eurozone and add fresh pressure on the single currency.

NZD/USD remains on the front foot on Friday and is heading for a second consecutive weekly gain after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday and signaled that further policy tightening may be needed, boosting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.5771 after hitting an intraday high of 0.5794, its highest level since June 18.

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD has been recovering after bottoming at 0.5626 in late June, its lowest level since November 2025. The latest leg higher pushed NZD/USD above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5717, reinforcing the bullish near-term outlook.

Momentum has also improved, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing above the neutral 50 threshold after recovering from near-oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, suggesting bearish momentum is fading rather than confirming a sustained bullish reversal, as NZD/USD continues to trade below a cluster of key moving averages.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the psychological 0.5800 mark, closely aligning with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5815, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.5820 and the 100-day SMA at 0.5838.

A decisive break above these levels could pave the way for a move toward the horizontal resistance levels at 0.5900 and 0.6000.

On the downside, immediate support lies at the 21-day SMA at 0.5718. A move back below this level would weaken the near-term bullish bias and bring the late-June low of 0.5626 back into focus.

New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.06%-0.09%-0.66%-0.24%-0.26%-0.30%-0.06%EUR0.06%-0.03%-0.55%-0.18%-0.21%-0.25%0.00%GBP0.09%0.03%-0.54%-0.15%-0.18%-0.21%0.02%JPY0.66%0.55%0.54%0.41%0.39%0.32%0.57%CAD0.24%0.18%0.15%-0.41%-0.03%-0.07%0.17%AUD0.26%0.21%0.18%-0.39%0.03%-0.05%0.17%NZD0.30%0.25%0.21%-0.32%0.07%0.05%0.23%CHF0.06%-0.01%-0.02%-0.57%-0.17%-0.17%-0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

Manufacturing survey delivers blockbuster upside surprise RBNZ tightening cycle gains fresh credibility RBA rate expectations continue to unwind AUD/NZD technical breakdown gains momentum NZD/USD breakout shifts focus higher New Zealand may be on holiday, but the Kiwi dollar certainly wasn't on Thursday. It topped the G10 FX leaderboard after strong data reinforced the RBNZ's message from earlier this week that further rate hikes are likely.

Factory floor fires up The catalyst for the outperformance was a blockbuster BNZ PMI. The headline index surged to 59.7 in June, its highest reading since July 2021. Excluding the pandemic rebound, it was the strongest result since May 2017, underpinned by a sharp lift in new orders, production, deliveries and employment. Respondents reported stronger sales, growing order books and renewed confidence, outweighing concerns about Middle East tensions and cost-of-living pressures.

A hawkish roadmap The survey's release was timely, arriving just days after the RBNZ lifted its cash rate to 2.5%, the first increase of a new tightening cycle. Policymakers retained a hawkish bias, saying "some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required" to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target midpoint.

Speaking after the decision, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said they were "feeling our way" as they sought to identify New Zealand's neutral cash rate, the level where it is neither stimulatory nor restrictive on economic activity. She suggested it may sit somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5%, implying 3% may be the Bank's initial destination for policy.

Mind the gap That’s important because relative rate expectations have long been one of the key macro drivers for AUD/NZD, making recent shifts in pricing on either side of the Tasman particularly important.

Source: Bloomberg

While the RBNZ has just embarked on a fresh tightening cycle, the RBA is likely much closer to the end of its own, or perhaps already there, after lifting its cash rate three times, unwinding the easing conducted in 2025. Although it has left the door open to further increases, softer domestic economic data and easing energy prices have seen markets scale back expectations for additional tightening. Just a few months ago, traders were flirting with the idea that the cash rate may need to near 5%. Today, there's only around an even chance of another 25 basis point increase to 4.60%.

Source: Tradingview

Thursday's data saw the Australia-New Zealand two-year yield spread compress by 14 basis points, the largest one-day decline since March 9. While the catalyst was New Zealand's stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI, the broader narrowing in spreads has been driven just as much by the steady unwinding of hawkish RBA pricing over recent months.

Connecting the dots The rates relationship is evident in the correlation matrix below, with Australia-New Zealand two-year yield spreads maintaining a consistently positive correlation with AUD/NZD across the past week, month and quarter.

Source: Tradingview

Energy prices have also been somewhat influential. While both Australia and New Zealand are heavily reliant on imported petroleum, Australia is also one of the world's largest LNG exporters. It's perhaps no surprise then that AUD/NZD has also maintained a strong positive correlation with LNG prices over the past month, particularly over the past week, reflecting the terms of trade impact of fluctuations in gas prices on the Australian dollar.

AUD/NZD trendline snaps

Source: Tradingview

It's not only fundamentals that are pointing to the risk of Kiwi outperformance against the Australian dollar, with the technical picture increasingly aligning with that view. Thursday saw AUD/NZD break below its June 2025 uptrend, doing so emphatically while also slicing through the 100-day moving average, a level it had remained above since July last year.

The breakdown follows the formation of a series of lower highs and the completion of what resembles an evening star bearish reversal after the pair spent several sessions flirting with the 50-day moving average earlier this week. The question now is whether Thursday's breakdown attracts another wave of selling on Friday.

The immediate focus is the June 10 low at 1.2053. Should that give way, attention shifts to 1.2000, a level that's repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in recent months, followed by 1.1950. Below that sits the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May 2025-June 2026 bull move, a level the pair also spent considerable time trading around back in March. The 200-day moving average at 1.1813, sitting just above the former breakout level at 1.1797, shapes as a more ambitious downside target.

Overhead, the broken June 2025 uptrend and 100-day moving average, located just below 1.2100, combine with horizontal resistance at 1.2115 to create an important resistance zone should buyers attempt to regain control.

Momentum indicators continue to favour the bears. RSI (14) is trending lower below 50 without yet reaching oversold territory, while MACD has crossed below its signal line and continues to diverge in negative territory, favouring selling into strength and downside breaks.

NZD/USD triangle delivers

Source: Tradingview

There are also signs the improving backdrop is beginning to spill over into NZD/USD. As noted yesterday, the pair was threatening to break higher from an ascending triangle, a move that's since played out through the European and North American sessions.

The breakout shifts the focus to 0.5774, a level that's repeatedly acted as both support and resistance this year. A sustained move above there would bring a cluster of key moving averages into view, starting with the 50-day moving average at 0.5815. While the 50-day moving average has recently crossed below the 200-day moving average, completing a death cross, that signal is being overridden by the improving fundamental backdrop and recent price action. Should that view prove misplaced and a retracement unfold, the former breakout level at 0.5724 is the first area to watch for support.

Momentum indicators point to the potential for further gains. RSI (14) continues to trend higher and has reclaimed the neutral 50 level, while MACD has completed a bullish crossover. Although it remains below zero, it's continuing to push higher, suggesting the bearish momentum that dragged NZD/USD to fresh 2026 lows in late June has dissipated and may be in the early stages of reversing, pointing to the potential for an extension of Thursday's breakout.

Since the final days of June, the Canadian dollar has been unable to build relevant strength against the U.S. dollar. Now, average USD/CAD movements remain close to 0.2% in the short term, showing a neutral bias that has become evident again in the behavior of both currencies.

For now, CAD has not managed to regain confidence ahead of the employment data release. An additional slowdown in this indicator could keep the Bank of Canada on a neutral policy path, limiting the support from higher rates and making it harder for the Canadian dollar to regain appeal in the short term.

In addition, new updates around the conflict in the Middle East could be key for USD strength. Together, these events could continue to highlight a phase of indecision, or even relevant buying pressure, around USD/CAD over the next few sessions.

What to expect from employment in Canada? Tomorrow’s session is expected to bring the release of Canada’s employment change data. So far, expectations point to a significant decline from the previous reading, with the creation of around 11.2 thousand jobs in June. This figure would come in well below the May reading, which stood near 87.8 thousand jobs created.

Looking at the broader behavior of employment in Canada over the last few months, the data shows a mixed dynamic, with consistent signs of weakness. May was the only month that managed to post a solid figure, but overall, employment data has shown fragility. This trend could be confirmed with tomorrow’s release, especially if the result comes in below expectations, as it would reaffirm a relevant labor market problem in Canada compared to other countries where the slowdown is not as significant.

Source: TradingEconomics

This outlook could be relevant for the Bank of Canada, as weaker employment, or even a reading below expectations, could reduce the need to raise the interest rate, which currently remains around 2.25%. This could lead the central bank to maintain a wait-and-see stance before considering meaningful changes to monetary policy.

In fact, so far, the probability table shows an 88% chance that the interest rate will remain unchanged at the July 15 decision. For the September decision, a probability above 70% has also started to emerge that this dynamic will persist.

Source: Bankofcanadaodds

The employment data release is key. If the report confirms a sharper-than-expected slowdown, expectations for a neutral monetary policy stance from the Bank of Canada could be reinforced over the coming months.

This would limit the appeal of rates in Canada, especially compared to a Federal Reserve that is still approaching scenarios of potential rate hikes. In this context, the differential against the 3.75% rate in the United States could continue to favor USD-denominated investments over those denominated in CAD.

For this reason, a significant decline in employment change could maintain a phase of indecision or even relevant buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few sessions.

Does the Middle East matter? Another important event to consider is the situation in the Middle East. The latest updates have shown that the United States would be willing to sit down for negotiations, while Trump’s comments continue to point toward maintaining a diplomatic path.

However, an environment of confusion has developed, as during the last 2 sessions a new escalation of the conflict seemed inevitable amid fresh attacks. This has increased doubts over whether a potential peace agreement can take place in the short term.

In this scenario, the behavior of the U.S. dollar is key. The DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength, showed a relevant increase above the 101-point area in previous sessions as new attacks returned. During the latest session, however, it weakened again amid the relative calm generated by additional comments from the United States.

Source: TradingEconomics

This point is important because, for months, the dollar has been considered a liquidity safe-haven currency during repeated escalations of the conflict. This could become relevant again if no concrete negotiations are seen in the short term.

In that scenario, additional safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar could appear, making it harder for the Canadian dollar to recover ground in the short term. This could also open the door to relevant buying pressure around USD/CAD over the next few sessions.

Technical outlook for USD/CAD

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Bullish trend continues to dominate: Since the first days of May, USD/CAD has maintained a relevant bullish trend line. This structure has marked an important buying bias, also reinforced by the bullish crossover of the 50-period moving average above the 200-period moving average, signaling a shift from a bearish structure to a more relevant bullish structure. For now, there is no bearish correction strong enough to put this technical pattern at risk, which is why it remains the most important structure to watch and could continue to dominate movements over the next few sessions.
  RSI: The RSI remains above the 50 level, suggesting that buying momentum has remained relevant over the last 14 sessions. If the indicator continues to hold above the neutral area, this could continue to reflect an important buying bias over the next few sessions.
  TRIX: The TRIX line maintains a bullish slope above its neutral zone, reinforcing the presence of buying strength in long-term exponential moving averages and highlighting the importance of a broad buying bias. However, the curve has also started to flatten steadily, which may be signaling exhaustion in buying strength. This could reflect a relevant phase of indecision over the next few sessions or a possible pause in the buying bias seen in previous weeks.
  Key levels:

1.42604 – Relevant resistance: This important high has not been seen consistently since April 2025 and represents the main short-term bullish barrier. Moves toward this zone would reinforce the current buying bias and could open room for an extension of the bullish trend line over the next few sessions.
  1.41982 – Near-term barrier: This is the most relevant neutral and retracement zone from recent trading sessions. Price movements too close to this level could highlight consistent neutrality and even open room for a possible short-term sideways range.
  1.40813 – Crucial support: This bearish barrier coincides with the area marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Price movements that begin to approach this level could end the bullish trend line and open room for a more dominant selling bias over the coming trading weeks.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

GBP/CAD climbed to its highest level in a decade this week, reflecting an increasingly powerful divergence between a Pound supported by fading domestic political risks and a Canadian Dollar facing mounting structural headwinds. Sterling continues to benefit from the unwinding of sizeable speculative short positions built ahead of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation, while Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has effectively ruled out near-term rate cuts. With Bank Rate holding at 3.75% versus the Bank of Canada’s 2.25%, the existing yield advantage remains firmly intact. More recently, however, the rally has found an additional and arguably more durable driver: rising uncertainty over Canada’s trade outlook.

The turning point came on July 1, when the Trump administration declined to extend the USMCA at its mandatory trilateral review. Although the agreement remains in force under an annual review mechanism for up to another decade, the decision marks a meaningful increase in long-term policy uncertainty rather than an immediate disruption to trade. Instead of securing another 16-year extension, businesses now face the prospect of recurring negotiations and periodic reviews. That uncertainty could weigh on investment and growth over coming years, reducing the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will need to tighten policy further.

The BoC has already downplayed the inflationary impact of higher energy prices, arguing there is limited evidence that rising oil costs are feeding into broader price pressures. Together, the trade outlook and the central bank’s cautious stance point to a policy bias that is becoming increasingly less supportive for the Canadian Dollar.

Market positioning reinforces that narrative. Speculative bearish bets against the Canadian Dollar have climbed to their highest level since December, while Canada’s two-year yield trades more than 140 basis points below its US counterpart, the widest gap since last May.

Attention now turns to June employment data from Canada due tomorrow, which could determine whether markets further strengthen expectations ahead of the Bank of Canada’s July 15 meeting. Consensus looks for employment to rise by around 10,000 after May’s outsized 88,000 gain, with the unemployment rate holding at 6.6%.

The risks appear asymmetric. A weaker-than-expected report would reinforce the existing bearish narrative by strengthening expectations that the BoC remains firmly on hold or even shifts toward easing eventually. By contrast, an in-line or even moderately stronger report may offer only temporary relief while the broader uncertainty surrounding USMCA continues to overshadow Canada’s medium-term outlook.

Technically, further rise is expected in GBP/CAD as long as 1.8875 support holds. Immediate focus is on medium term rising channel resistance (now at 1.9049). Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration to 138.2% projection of 1.8017 to 1.8694 from 1.8299 at 1.9235. Break of 1.8875 will delay the bullish case, and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, GBP/CAD is extending the whole up trend from 1.4069 (2022 low). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.6355 to 1.8912 from 1.8017 at 1.9597.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

The British Pound (GBP) has resumed its broader uptrend against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday, with price action drawing closer to the 217.00 level and the all-time high of 217.22, on the bulls’ focus. Some dovish comments by a Bank of Japan (BoJ) official have cast doubt about the BoJ’s monetary tightening plans and added pressure on an already weak Yen.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Japanese central bank’s committee member Toichiro Asada, the lone vote opposing June’s interest rate hike, affirmed that he needs to see evidence of demand-driven inflation to support further monetary tightening. 

Asada is the latest appointment to the bank's government board, and has been hand-picked by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who has repeatedly voiced her preference for low interest rates to promote economic growth. The BoJ official assured that he is “not always opposed” to rate hikes, but these comments are seen as a token of political pressure on the central bank that might curb plans to normalize monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: The Pound might reach fresh highs around 218.00

GBP/JPY trades at 216.89 with a bullish near-term bias as dips have been contained well above previous highs in the 216.00 area. The four-hour chart shows the Relative Strength Index (14) around 66.72, highlighting strong momentum, although the neutral Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) casts a shadow over the strength of the current rally.

Bulls are testing the 217.00 level, ahead of the mentioned high at 217.22. Above here, the pair would enter uncharted territory. A wider picture, however, suggests t that the pair might be in the fifth wave of an Elliot Wave bullish cycle, with the 127.2% retracement of last week's reversal in the 218.00 area, as a plausible target.

Supports are at Tuesday's low of 216.41 and the July 2 highs at the 216.00 area. Further down, the July 2 and 3 lows between 214.70 and 214.80 would come into focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.00%0.06%0.18%-0.24%0.07%-0.49%-0.07%EUR-0.00%0.05%0.20%-0.25%0.07%-0.49%-0.07%GBP-0.06%-0.05%0.13%-0.30%0.00%-0.54%-0.15%JPY-0.18%-0.20%-0.13%-0.43%-0.10%-0.68%-0.27%CAD0.24%0.25%0.30%0.43%0.33%-0.25%0.16%AUD-0.07%-0.07%-0.01%0.10%-0.33%-0.56%-0.18%NZD0.49%0.49%0.54%0.68%0.25%0.56%0.39%CHF0.07%0.07%0.15%0.27%-0.16%0.18%-0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate fell sharply on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, boosting the 'Kiwi' as policymakers struck a more hawkish tone than many investors had anticipated.

At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading at NZ$2.3369, down around 0.6% on the day after retreating from recent six-month highs.

Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.337366 (-0.61%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.99811 (-0.54%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.571431 (+0.70%)

DAILY RECAP:

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, marking the first increase in the current tightening cycle.

Importantly, the decision was reached by consensus, with both the Reserve Bank's internal members and external Monetary Policy Committee members backing the rate increase after the previous meeting ended in a split vote.

The Committee said monetary policy remains stimulatory and that a modest reduction in that stimulus was appropriate to help ensure inflation returns sustainably to the 2% midpoint of its target range. Policymakers also acknowledged that inflation risks remain elevated despite lower oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions.

The prospect of further policy tightening later this year helped lift New Zealand government bond yields and supported the 'Kiwi' across the currency market.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) struggled to offset the New Zealand Dollar's gains.

Sterling remained broadly supported by expectations that UK interest rates will stay relatively elevated, but the RBNZ's surprise consensus behind a rate increase proved the dominant driver of GBP/NZD price action.

Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: Focus Turns to the RBNZ's Next Move Following Wednesday's widely expected 25 basis point increase, investors will now focus on whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signals additional policy tightening in the months ahead.

While policymakers stressed that future decisions will remain data dependent, the consensus vote and accompanying statement suggest the Committee remains concerned about inflation risks and is prepared to tighten further if necessary.

If markets continue to price in another RBNZ rate increase later this year, the New Zealand Dollar could remain well supported.

For Sterling, attention will remain on incoming UK economic data and Bank of England expectations, although the near-term direction of GBP/NZD is likely to be driven primarily by changing interest rate expectations between the two central banks.