Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Key Highlights

GBP/USD started a fresh increase above 1.3400. It traded above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3305 on the 4-hour chart. Bitcoin seems to be facing hurdles near $64,500 and $65,650. EUR/USD rallied above 1.1500 before it started a consolidation phase. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound started a decent increase above 1.3380 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD even surpassed 1.3400 to enter a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 1.3400, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There was a move above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3555 swing high to the 1.3273 low.

However, the bears are active near the 1.3520 zone. If there is a downside correction, the pair might find support near 1.3290 or the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).

The first key support is near the 1.3350 level and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 1.3350 might send the pair toward 1.3320. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.3250.

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 1.3500. The next major resistance might be 1.3520. A close above 1.3520 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3555. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.3620.

Looking at Bitcoin, the bears seem to be in control, and they could aim for a fresh push toward the $60,000 level.

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US Factory Orders for June 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.2%, versus -1.3% previous. US Goods and Services Trade Balance for June 2026 – Forecast $-73.0B, versus $-77.6B previous.

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EUR/USD remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around 1.1500 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair continues to hold losses as the US Dollar (USD) finds support from ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, despite lingering hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States (US) and Iran. Any signs of escalating tensions between the two nations could drive crude oil prices higher, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold interest rates at elevated levels for longer.

Diplomatic signals remain tense over the critical waterway. US President Donald Trump announced that his latest offer of talks is a "last chance" for Iran, following his decision to call off a major attack on the Islamic Republic. Trump expressed expectations that negotiations would begin shortly to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address US concerns regarding Iran's nuclear program.

However, General Mohsen Rezaei, advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, firmly rejected these conditions, stating that Iran will absolutely not permit a second corridor in the Strait and warning that any foreign warships or military forces deployed for that purpose will be targeted.

On the monetary policy front, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly weighing changes to the central bank's operations. Reports indicate Warsh has floated a proposal to hold six rate-setting meetings per year, supplemented by two additional meetings focused on broader economic policy.

Market participants are now turning their attention to Friday's US July jobs report for further guidance on the path of US interest rates. Nonfarm Payrolls are projected to increase by 83,000—up from 57,000 previously—while the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.3% from 4.2% in June.

Meanwhile, the Euro could see support from improving risk sentiment following a sharp decline in crude oil prices, which fell on hopes of an eventual US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease regional conflict fears. While the drop in oil prices led money markets to modestly scale back expectations for further European Central Bank tightening, a rate hike by September remains largely priced in.

Euro CTA positioning mapped across big downtape to flat tape scenariosAccording to TD Securities, their CTA Tracker provides a detailed “CTA positioning est., EUR” across a range of market environments, explicitly covering “big downtape CTA positioning est., EUR, downtape CTA positioning est., EUR, flat tape.” The framework allows systematic Euro futures exposure to be assessed consistently as the tape shifts from more pronounced downside conditions through to neutral trading ranges.

Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to near $4,050 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal eased slightly from the recent rally after the US paused planned airstrikes against Iran. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran talks for fresh impetus. 

Bloomberg reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump said his latest offer of talks is a “last chance” for Iran after he called off what he said was a major attack on the Islamic Republic. Trump said he expected negotiations to begin in the next day or two to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and create a pathway for Iran to address the US’s concerns about its nuclear programme.

Iran denied it was negotiating with the US but said talks with Oman to get more ships moving through the critical waterway are making progress. 

Uncertainty in the Middle East remains high despite hopes of a breakthrough between the US and Iran. Any signs of escalating tensions between the US and Iran could push crude oil prices up and prompt central banks to hold rates at elevated levels for longer. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to hold the interest rates steady in its current target range between 3.50% and 3.75% at its July policy meeting last week. During the press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pledged an unwavering commitment to bring inflation down. Traders await the US jobs data on Friday for more clues about the US interest rate path. 

Gold upside seen capped by lingering Fed hike expectationsAccording to analysts at Commerzbank, the outlook for bullion remains constrained by the policy path in the US. They argue that “the persistent expectation of Fed interest rate rises should counteract any rise in the gold price,” with ongoing speculation about further tightening limiting investors’ willingness to chase the recent rally.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

USD/JPY is trying to stabilise after its sharpest four-day loss in nearly two years, but the outlook remains fragile. Japan's intervention, backed by the US Treasury and supported by a new Fed repo facility, has increased the credibility of future yen-buying operations, leaving traders alert for opportunities to fade rallies.

View related analysis:

USD at a Crossroads: Can EUR/USD and AUD/USD Extend Their Gains? FX Futures Positioning: Yen, Euro Bears Caught Short | COT report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Meets ISM, NFP and DXY Support Japanese Yen Surges as MOF Steals the BOJ's Thunder After FOMC Why USD/JPY Risks Remain Despite the Sharp Selloff Fed Support Adds Weight to Yen Intervention The -3.2% loss for August marked the worst month for USD/JPY in fifteen and its most volatile trading range in six. Most of that loss occurred in the final two days of the month, thanks to intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) and support from the US Treasury. Traders remain on guard for further declines after the MOF vowed to intervene again, with the Fed making that easier by opening a repo facility for Japan. This allows Japan to borrow US dollars against its Treasury holdings to buy yen instead of selling US Treasuries, removing a key constraint on future intervention.

In simple terms, the facility gives Japan greater firepower to sell US dollars and buy yen, increasing bearish pressure on the greenback if authorities intervene again.

Source: ICE, TradingView

History Shows MOF Intervention Can Trigger Sharp USD/JPY Declines The weekly chart shows how deep USD/JPY corrections have been following MOF interventions. The pair has already fallen 5.3%, surpassing the post-intervention decline seen in April, although it still trails the deeper selloffs following MOF action in October 2022, November 2023 and July 2024.

Whether we'll see declines of a similar magnitude this time remains debatable, given the potential for further Fed rate hikes and persistent inflationary pressures from higher crude oil prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions. However, with the US Treasury and Fed backing Japan, MOF jawboning is more likely to cap rallies, while any future interventions now carry greater credibility. That could keep USD/JPY and other yen crosses firmly on traders' 'fade the rally' watchlists.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen The daily chart shows the intense two-day selloff on Thursday and Friday culminated in a volatile doji. Notably, the session low held above the 155.00 handle, the May low and the monthly S1 pivot point. With the daily RSI also deeply oversold, bears may want to tread cautiously around these lows.

The 1-hour chart shows prices grinding higher in what could be a corrective pattern, while declining volumes suggest a lack of conviction among bulls. Even so, they may still attempt a move towards the 200-period EMA. If the MOF allows, a break above 158.00 brings the high-volume node (HVN) and monthly pivot point into focus around the 159.00 handle.

Should prices bounce from here, bears may look to fade rallies into those resistance levels, particularly with the backing of the MOF and Fed. A break below 155.00 would then bring the January low near 152.00 into focus.

Source: ICE, TradingView

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-- Written by Matt Simpson

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There is growing evidence that $4,000 may now be following the same path.

Rather than triggering aggressive profit-taking, pullbacks towards this region are increasingly attracting long-term buyers. If that behaviour continues, $4,000 could evolve from a psychological milestone into the next structural foundation of Gold’s secular bull market.

“Bull markets mature by building higher floors,” Hansen explains. “When pullbacks become buying opportunities rather than reasons to sell, it often signals a new long-term base is forming.”

Central Banks Continue to Buy Aggressively There is no denying the strongest pillar supporting Gold today is official sector demand.

Global central bank purchases reached 289 tonnes during the second quarter of 2026, the strongest quarterly accumulation since late 2024. Year-to-date purchases have now reached 345 tonnes, putting annual demand on pace for roughly 700 tonnes despite Gold trading close to record highs.

This is particularly significant because central banks tend to buy for strategic, long-term reserve management rather than short-term speculation. Their continued accumulation suggests confidence in Gold’s role as a monetary asset remains exceptionally strong.

“The biggest opportunities often emerge when several independent macro themes begin pointing in the same direction,” Hansen says. “We’re seeing sustained central bank buying, the prospect of a structurally weaker U.S dollar and improving technical conditions all converging simultaneously.”

Silver Could Be the Biggest Surprise History shows Gold typically leads Precious Metals bull markets, but Silver often delivers the strongest gains once institutional participation broadens.

Alongside investment demand, Silver is benefiting from expanding industrial consumption across artificial intelligence infrastructure, electrification and solar energy.

If investment capital begins rotating back into Precious Metals from crowded AI trades, Silver’s smaller market size and historically higher beta could allow it to outperform Gold.

“Silver has a long history of outperforming during the strongest phases of Precious Metals bull markets,” Hansen notes. “If capital continues flowing into the sector, Silver has the potential to surprise.”

Waiting for Confirmation Could Be Expensive One defining characteristic of major Commodity bull markets is that they rarely provide prolonged buying opportunities once momentum accelerates.

By the time headlines unanimously support higher Precious Metal prices, much of the move has often already occurred. Seasoned traders and institutional investors typically position themselves while uncertainty remains – not after consensus has formed.

That is precisely why August deserves close attention.

A weakening U.S dollar, record central bank demand, the potential rotation of capital away from crowded semiconductor positions, the emergence of $4,000 as a potential long-term support level and increasingly favourable technical conditions are combining to create one of the strongest macro backdrops for Precious Metals seen in years.

“The market rarely announces when the next major leg higher is about to begin,” Hansen says. “Those who wait for absolute certainty often end up paying considerably higher prices.”

For traders seeking diversification, protection against currency weakness and exposure to one of the strongest structural themes developing across global markets, August could represent one of the best opportunities to accumulate Gold and Silver since 2020.

If today’s macro landscape continues to unfold, this summer’s consolidation may ultimately be remembered not as a pause, but as the period when long-term traders were given one final opportunity to build positions before the next significant leg higher.

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

USD/JPY Talking Points: Last week had both the Fed and the BoJ, but it was something that happened outside of those rate decisions that drove the major volatility in USD/JPY. The currency pair dropped dramatically on Thursday and Friday and that extended through this week’s open, but prices have since started to bounce just above a key level at the 155.00 area.

While fundamentals and headlines can often show direct drive in a market, the only thing that really matters is the actual act of buying and selling. To be sure, fundamentals do often carry impact on price but that relationship is imperfect, to the point that it can sometimes be straight up counter-intuitive.

This is both obvious and mysterious, at least if we judge market participants by what they say or what they often follow against what they do. While it’s data prints and central banks that usually drive the headlines, the fact of the matter is that in a market where anyone willing and able to be long already is, well it doesn’t matter how great the news might be, there’s simply no buyers left to hit the bid.

And sometimes, when a market does get incredibly one-sided, even the slightest hint or whiff of change can compel a monstrous counter-trend move as longs head for the exits. This doesn’t necessarily mean that a reversal is afoot, and the past five years in USD/JPY has episodes that had staying power as well as those that were temporary blips. But this highlights the fact that, while fundamentals often determine long-term trajectory they don’t always dictate short-term directional moves.

In USD/JPY, the fundamentals remain tilted to the long side in the pair, owed to the interest rate disparity between the two economies. If Japan did want to narrow that, they could, by hiking interest rates. But, as I looked at multiple times over the past couple weeks, that comes at a cost, and with risks, and it’s apparent at this point that the Bank of Japan does not want to face those risks. With an aging population that’s expected to decline considerably in the coming decades, choking off growth runs the risk of another deflationary spiral, similar to what showed in recent years in Japan which led to only larger demographic issues and political volatility.

To be sure this isn’t the first time that the Bank of Japan was faced with this dilemma. They’ve intervened multiple times in the past four years and each has seemingly failed. Sure, those interventions did serve to run stops on longs while pushing prices back to support, but they were functionally unable to reverse the trend as the backing fundamental divergence remained in-place.

What’s different about this current episode is that Japan is not going at it alone, as they now seem to have the assistance of the US Treasury Department. I wrote about this on Friday going into the weekend and since then, there was an item that went viral across social media, as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had his notepad in view of reporters, and on it was a memo to buy Japanese Yen, to the tune of five to ten billion.

At this point we don’t know if they did or not. There were circulating rumors on Friday that the Treasury Department asked the New York Fed to call into banks to as about rate quotes on the Yen. This is often seen as a pre-cursor to a possible intervention as both the New York Fed and US Treasury Department can already see quotes and they certainly have access to an EBS system. The act of actually calling can be seen as trying to sound somewhat threatening, which led to the additional rumor on Friday morning that the New York Fed had went as far as to warn banks that there may be action taken in the Japanese Yen market.

To be sure, this is a lot of headline hunting and rumor mongering, but it comes on the heels of Scott Bessent talking up the prospect of a Bretton Woods 2.0, which was essentially a currency fixing regime, and given the timeline of everything,  it all seems to fit and make sense.

But perhaps the bigger and more pertinent question, is how aggressively will they hit the intervention. The 155.00 level is a massive spot in USD/JPY and that’s already almost come into play, nearly 900 pips away from last week’s high. Traders can still earn rollover on the long side of the pair by buying the higher yielder of the USD and selling the lower yielder of the Japanese Yen. But, there’s something else to consider which I’ll touch on below the next chart.

USD/JPY Weekly: Crowded Trades, Crowded Exits Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY What’s Behind the Carry Trade? Thinking of the matter from a rollover perspective is helpful, but it’s also remiss to consider only the retail side of the matter.

The large bulk of the lift from the carry trade comes from institutions employing a degree of rate arbitrage between economies. If rates in Japan are low or near zero while rates in the US are lifting and getting higher, there’s an increasingly attractive opportunity there, as a pension or hedge fund can go to a Japanese bank, get a cheap loan, and then invest that capital elsewhere.

The only problem with that is the currency exposure as the pension or hedge fund getting the loan gets the loan in Yen, and if the JPY is weakening on the basis of loose monetary policy unable to keep up with tightening elsewhere, the profits can essentially go up in smoke on the basis of that currency weakness alone.

So, these institutions will often look to hedge that risk and one way to do so is by buying another currency and selling Japanese Yen in the marketplace to offset that risk. And then, not only does that institution effectively eliminate their currency risk from the loan that they received, they also bring on the possibility of capital appreciation in the hedge itself.

But – if we get to a space where it become somewhat obvious that the hedge may go in the other direction, as a crowded trade brings on a crowded exit whether its from an intervention or worsening US data or a threat of rate hikes out of Japan, well, there’s less reason to hold that hedge and, instead, absorb the currency risk.

This is one reason those trades in USD/JPY can go the other way so quickly. But it’s also one of the reasons why the trend has persisted for so long even with Japanese policymakers taking numerous shots at bringing on a reversal.

So perhaps the operative question at this point is whether policymakers from the US and/or Japan are finished or whether they take another shot at speculators by trying to run stops below 155.00. If they do, the next logical place to look for support is the 152 area which is, perhaps ironically, the level that the BoJ initially tried to defend in this cycle of interventions back in 2022.

USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

XAU/USD Current price: $ 4,035Easing Middle East tensions cause Oil prices to edge sharply lower.United States employment data taking center stage this week. XAU/USD holds above $4,000, but sellers hold the grip.Spot Gold trades in the $4,030 price zone, little changed from Friday’s close, yet down on Monday after starting the week with a bullish gap. The US Dollar (USD) eased throughout the first half of the day, as easing Middle East tensions caused Oil prices to fall. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovers around $78, down from last week’s close at roughly $85.

United States (US) President Donald Trump boosted the mood after announcing he halted a massive planned attack on Iran as negotiations would restart on Monday afternoon. Later in the day, however, US officials told CBS that there are no new negotiations planned, just the ongoing talks between American and Iranian negotiating teams through mediators.

The USD changed course after its initial slide and turned ´positive across the FX board, getting an extra push during American trading hours from the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The index rose to 55.6 in July from 53.3 in June, also beating the expected 54.

War developments and US employment data will set the market’s tone this week. The US will publish several labor-related figures, including JOLTS Job Openings and the ADP Employment Change survey ahead of the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bearish stance, as the pair sits below all its moving averages. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands at $4,065.14, the 100-period SMA at $4,053.24, and the 200-period SMA at $4,075.53, providing a strong layer of resistance while lacking directional strength. At the same time, the Momentum indicator heads south below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers around 43, hinting that bears retain the initiative despite the absence of extreme conditions.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD the technical picture is similar. The metal remains below its moving averages, with the 20-day SMA at $4,060.40, and is gaining downward traction. The 14-day RSI indicator at 44.86 stays below the midline, while the 14-day Momentum indicator heads nowhere within neutral levels, which together hint that any recovery attempts could struggle while price remains beneath these key averages.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-period SMA near $4,053.24, where any intraday rebound would first be tested. Above that, the 20-period SMA at $4,065.14 forms a secondary barrier, ahead of a more robust resistance zone at the 200-period SMA around $4,075.53, which would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish bias. The $4,000 mark provides immediate support ahead of the June low at $3,941.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD waits for a clearer signalDirectional bias: Neutral to bullish above 0.6900, although repeated difficulty clearing 0.7000 leaves the pair exposed to another rejection.

Preferred approach: Patience may offer a better risk-reward profile than chasing the pair immediately below resistance. A confirmed break above the 0.7000 threshold or a pullback that holds around the 200-day SMA would provide a cleaner setup.

Bullish trigger: A sustained move above 0.7000, ideally supported by firm Australian labour data, stronger expectations of another RBA rate increase, lower US yields or an improvement in risk appetite.

Bearish trigger: Another failure at 0.7000, accompanied by renewed US Dollar strength or a generalised deterioration in market sentiment.

Key invalidation level: A daily close below the 200-day SMA around 0.6900 would undermine the broader constructive structure and increase the risk of a deeper retracement in the short-term horizon.

Three paths from the 0.7000 crossroadsBase case: The range holds

AUD/USD could remain trapped between the 0.7000 psychological barrier and the 200-day SMA just above 0.6900 while traders wait for a sufficiently strong catalyst.

Australia’s relatively solid domestic fundamentals and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious stance should discourage aggressive selling. At the same time, persistent demand for the Greenback and geopolitical uncertainty could prevent an immediate breakout.

Until either boundary gives way, spot may be better treated as a side-lined trade than a convincing directional move.

Bull case: Buyers establish a foothold above 0.7000

A convincing break above 0.7000 would suggest that buyers have absorbed the selling pressure surrounding this closely watched threshold.

The breakout would carry greater conviction if supported by:

Firmer-than-expected Australian data releases.A stable or lower Unemployment Rate.Increased expectations of another RBA rate hike.Lower US yields and a softer US Dollar.An improvement in risk-linked sentiment.Under this scenario, the next important medium-term target would emerge around 0.7200, followed by the 2026 ceiling near 0.7280.

The sizeable build-up of speculative AUD shorts could add fuel to the move if a confirmed breakout forces bearish traders to unwind their positions.

Bear case: Another rejection opens the door to 0.6900

A fresh failure around 0.7000 could bring sellers back into the market, particularly if the Greenback regains momentum or global risk appetite deteriorates.

The next major test would then be the 200-day SMA around 0.6900. A daily close below this area would damage the wider bullish structure and increase the probability of a deeper correction.

Once that support gives way, previous resistance and consolidation zones below 0.6900 could return to focus.

Australia’s economy continues to hold its groundAustralia’s domestic backdrop remains relatively healthy, supported by firm demand, positive growth and a resilient labour market.

July business surveys reinforced that picture. The Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.0 from 51.5, while the Services PMI rose to 53.0 from 50.5, leaving both sectors comfortably in expansionary territory.

The June labour-market report was also encouraging. The Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.4%, while Employment Change jumped by 76.3K following a revised 44K increase in May.

Still, the picture is not uniformly positive. Australia recorded an A$3.018 billion trade deficit in May, reversing April’s A$1.383 billion surplus. Economic growth also slowed to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of 2026, down from 0.9%, while annual growth held at 2.5%.

Overall the figures suggest a resilient economy but perhaps not strong enough on its own to trigger a sustained breakout in AUD/USD.

Inflation leaves the RBA with unfinished businessAustralian headline inflation eased to 3.9% in the second quarter from 4.1%. Underlying price pressures, however, remained uncomfortable. Both the Trimmed Mean and Weighted Median measures rose to 3.6% from 3.5% in the previous quarter.

Consumer inflation expectations offered some relief, falling to 4.7% in July from 5.5%, according to the Melbourne Institute. Even so, inflation remains too high for the RBA to declare victory.

The central bank left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% in June and maintained a cautious message. Policymakers warned that further tightening could still be required if inflation proves more persistent than expected.

Governor Michele Bullock struck a more balanced tone. While keeping the possibility of another rate increase alive, she suggested there was no immediate need to tighten again as the economy was broadly evolving in line with expectations.

Markets expect the RBA to remain on hold at its August meeting while continuing to price the possibility of additional tightening before year-end. So far, nearly 15 basis points of extra tightening are pencilled in by the turn of the year.

That stance provides the AUD with some domestic support, but it is not necessarily enough to trigger an immediate rally. Further gains may require incoming data to strengthen the case for another rate increase.

China steadies but offers little additional liftChina remains an important influence on the Australian currency, although it is currently providing stability rather than a powerful tailwind.

The Chinese economy expanded by 4.3% YoY in the April-June period, Industrial Production rose by 5.3% in the year to June, and Retail Sales increased by a more modest 1.0%.

Business surveys suggest that activity is stabilising. The official Manufacturing and Services PMIs remained slightly above the 50 threshold, while private-sector gauges continued to signal expansion.

China’s trade surplus also widened to $125.62 billion in June from $105.4 billion, supported by stronger imports and exports.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left its Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged, keeping the one-year rate at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50%.

China is therefore neither delivering a major boost nor creating a significant drag. Unless the data reveal a clearer acceleration or deterioration, Chinese releases may generate short-term volatility without establishing a lasting direction for the pair.

Bearish positioning remains heavy, but momentum is fadingThe speculative mood on the Australian Dollar stayed bearish in the week ended July 28. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed net short positions rose to almost 40K contracts from 37.7K a week before.

However, the weekly increase in bearish exposure has decelerated to around 2.3K contracts from 7K previously. That said, the non-commercial players are still building on their downside positions, but with less urgency than earlier this summer.

Open interest also increased slightly to around 229.8K contracts from just above 225K, indicating a slight increase in market participation. In addition, speculative exposure decreased as well to -17.4% (from -16.7%).

The broader trend points to a similar loss of momentum. Indeed, the 4-week change improved to -22.3K contracts from -24.7K, suggesting that cumulative bearish flows are gradually cooling.

Overall, speculators remain firmly bearish on the Aussie, but that view is becoming more established than aggressive. This means the AUD position is increasingly reliant on incoming economic data.

It also creates an interesting asymmetry. Disappointing data could reinforce the prevailing bearish bias, but a convincing improvement in the outlook could trigger a sharper reaction as crowded short positions are unwound.

Jobs data take centre stageAustralia’s July Labour Force report will be the next major domestic test for the Australian Dollar. The release could influence expectations for the RBA’s next move and determine whether AUD/USD can establish itself above 0.7000.

Stronger-than-expected labour data

A solid increase in employment, particularly full-time employment, combined with a stable or lower jobless rate would reinforce the view that the labour market remains tight.

Firm participation and hours-worked figures would add credibility to the headline result. Such an outcome could strengthen expectations of another RBA rate increase and support a sustained move above 0.7000 of the pair.

A broadly balanced report

Employment growth close to expectations, accompanied by little change in unemployment or participation, would probably leave the RBA outlook largely unchanged.

In that case, AUD/USD could remain confined between resistance around 0.7000 and the 200-day SMA just past 0.6900, with its direction determined primarily by the US Dollar and global risk sentiment.

A clear deterioration in the labour market

Weak or negative employment growth, particularly alongside a rise in the Unemployment Rate, would raise questions about the resilience of the Australian economy.

A drop in hours worked or a result driven mainly by part-time employment would make the report look even softer. This could reduce expectations of further RBA tightening and leave spot vulnerable to a renewed test of 0.6900.

Participation will require careful attention. A lower Unemployment Rate caused by people leaving the labour force would be less encouraging than the headline figure might initially suggest.

Beyond the domestic data, traders should continue to monitor US yields, Federal Reserve expectations, Chinese developments, global risk appetite and geopolitical headlines.

Technical landscapeIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6994, holding above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6913 but still capped by the 55-day SMA at 0.7019 and the 100-day SMA at 0.7053, which keeps the near-term tone neutral-to-bearish. Momentum is modestly constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near 51, while the Average Directional Index (14) around 15 suggests a weak, non-trending environment where price is more likely to consolidate beneath these moving average barriers than to embark on a decisive directional move.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the short-term SMAs, with the 55-day SMA at 0.7019 followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.7053, ahead of a horizontal cap near 0.7079; higher up, the 0.7278–0.7283 region and then 0.7661 mark more substantial medium-term hurdles. On the downside, initial support aligns with the 200-day SMA at 0.6913, before the horizontal floor at 0.6833, while deeper retracements would expose 0.6660 and 0.6593, with 0.6414 and 0.6373 acting as longer-term bearish objectives if selling pressure resumes.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The line in the sand remains 0.6900AUD/USD retains a constructive medium-term structure above its 200-day SMA, but the immediate outlook remains uncertain while the pair struggles to secure a foothold above 0.7000.

The most attractive setup remains conditional. Confirmed acceptance above 0.7000 would favour additional gains and could trigger a positioning-driven short squeeze. Another rejection, however, would leave the pair exposed to a return toward 0.6900.

Until one of these boundaries breaks, AUD/USD remains caught between supportive Australian fundamentals and an external backdrop still dominated by the US Dollar, geopolitical uncertainty and only moderate support from China.

Employment FAQs Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.

The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.

The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

·   USDJPY sinks below 200-SMA as Japan fires intervention ahead of NFP

·   EURUSD tests key resistance trendline after exciting rally

·   Gold continues to flatline as rate hike expectations weigh. Is a breakout approaching?

US Nonfarm Payrolls → USD/JPYAccording to reports, the US and Japan finally stepped in to support the yen, sending USDJPY almost 5% lower toward May's low near 155. Hopes that the US and Iran could return to negotiations added to the selling pressure on Monday.

From a technical perspective, this intervention looks more meaningful than previous ones, as the pair has slipped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time in nearly a year. That puts the bears in control for now, although history shows intervention-driven moves can fade if the Bank of Japan refrains from confidently signaling further rate hikes.  

The spotlight now turns to Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has made it clear that future policy will depend on incoming data, leaving markets highly sensitive to this week's releases. Payrolls are expected to show another muted increase of 83k in July, pushing the unemployment rate slightly up to 4.3% while holding average hourly earnings flat at 3.5% y/y. Since Kevin Warsh is firmly committed to a data-dependent approach, traders will be watching closely to see whether the private ADP report and ISM PMIs can spark a more volatile market reaction ahead of the NFP release. 

A softer set of numbers could drag USDJPY toward 153.95, with 51.80-152 coming into focus next. On the other hand, payroll growth above 100k could help the pair reclaim its 200-day SMA at 157.80, while a move above 158.30 would put buyers back in charge.

Eurozone retail sales → EUR/USDThe eurozone calendar is fairly quiet this week after July inflation unexpectedly picked up, reviving expectations that the ECB could still raise interest rates by 25bps as early as September despite trying to downplay inflation expectations during last week's policy meeting. 

With retail sales the only major release, EURUSD is likely to take its direction from the US dollar. The pair is already testing an important resistance area, and a break above 1.1560 could pave the way toward 1.1600-1.1630. If the dollar regains strength instead, a drop below 1.1500 could initially pause near 1.1420 and then stretch to 1.1350-1.1365.

Geopolitics → GoldGold continues to trade sideways for a fifth straight week within a symmetrical triangle and near June’s lows. Reports that President Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran and resumed talks with Tehran did little to move the metal on Monday, while higher Treasury yields and caution ahead of Friday's jobs report capped upside pressures.  

For the bulls, a break above 4,135-4,200 and the 50-day SMA could trigger a rally toward the 4,340 resistance area. Alternatively, if US data surprises to the upside and reinforces September rate-hike expectations, a move below 3,950-4,000 could hand control back to the bears.

Gold Talking Points: Gold has tested $4k for five of the past six weeks and sellers have yet to hold a weekly close below the big figure. The past two weeks have shown higher-lows, illustrating a degree of defense at that price. I looked into the matter in greater depth in a video for StoneX TV, linked below.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

Gold came into the year with a full head of steam, but 2026 certainly hasn’t gone that way for bulls as the past six months have seen sellers taking a strong swing at the matter.

Of late, however, the bigger item has been slowing volatility as gold price action has compressed, with the $4k level coming in to hold the lows. This was a price that bears shied away from on the initial portion of the pullback in March. And then again in early-June. What ultimately drove gold down for a $4k test as the FOMC rate decision on June 17th but, so far, bulls have come in for a strong defense of that level.

From the weekly chart below, we can see where five of the past six weeks have wicks testing that level. This shows that while price may have dipped below during the week, buyers showed up, thereby exposing underside wicks on the weekly chart.

And for the past two weeks, buyers have shown greater anticipation by jumping in at higher-lows, alluding to the possibility that sellers are giving way to greater buying pressure and bulls are ramping up their appetite on the long side of gold.

Gold Weekly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Gold Turn Potential A slowing sell-off can lead to a bullish reversal, but it’s still too early to say that definitively. As traders, instead, the best that we can do is place a line in the sand and then implement an if-then statement, and if buyers do press up to a fresh higher-high, combined with the higher-lows shown in the above chart, we can get more evidence that a turning of the tides may continue ahead.

The levels that I’m tracking for this are at $4100 and $4200, both of which provided some form of resistance over the past month. If we see buyers make a push above that latter price, then we can move forward with the idea that buyers are showing a greater degree of control over the trend, and thus, may be on the cusp of resuming the broader bullish trend.

Gold Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Following the strong recovery of the euro against the US dollar last week, slight indecision has reemerged on the EUR/USD chart. This is reflected in early week trading fluctuations, which now show a price decline of around -0.2%, indicating modest short-term strength for the dollar. For now, this shift is paving the way for a neutral scenario following the recent bullish pressure. This pause may be tied to the lingering threat of higher interest rates in the United States and a potential rebound for the greenback after its recent depreciation. If these factors persist, consolidation could become the dominant theme in the coming sessions.

Is the FED Still Relevant? Last week was crucial for the US monetary policy outlook. The Federal Reserve announcement featured comments that remain focused on the central bank's 2.00% inflation target, an objective yet to be achieved and heavily emphasized during the meeting. However, statements from FED Chair Kevin Warsh failed to confirm an overly aggressive stance for the coming months. Markets, anticipating more decisive signals, triggered a pronounced drop in dollar demand during those sessions.

The context now looks slightly different following the central bank announcements. A couple of sessions ago, the core PCE Price Index for June was released. This is the official inflation gauge tracking price changes for consumed goods and services while excluding volatile items like food and energy. The June data showed the index settling around 3.3%. Although slightly below the year's peak of 3.4%, it has yet to show a significant enough decline to establish a clear downward trend in overall inflation. To some extent, this highlights lingering inflationary pressures still embedded in the economy.

Source: TradingEconomics

This data release likely played a key role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve September decision. A week ago, the probability according to CMEGROUP of a potential rate hike on September 16 to a new benchmark zone of 4.00% in the United States stood at around 55%. Today, following the inflation data, that probability has climbed to nearly 62%. This underscores that the market may still be pricing in a possible rate increase due to persistent inflationary pressures expected to linger in the US economy over the coming months.

Source: CMEGROUP

Taking all this into account, the prospect of the US central bank potentially raising interest rates in September could be helping the US dollar hold its ground in the short term. This is particularly noticeable after last week's loss of momentum, which allowed the euro to steadily regain ground. If the probability matrix for the FED continues to highlight a potential rate hike next month, dollar-denominated investments will likely remain attractive. This is because the US interest rate remains higher than Europe's, making it harder for the euro to resume its recovery easily and reinforcing a more solid phase of consolidation in the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Long-term trendline holds firm: For several months, average fluctuations in the EUR/USD have been defined by a long-term bearish trendline, which remains the most critical technical structure to watch. Despite the recent price recovery, buying pressure has not been strong enough to break through this line in the short term. Until a more robust bullish momentum emerges, this pattern will remain the primary technical driver for upcoming sessions.
  RSI: Currently, the RSI is consistently fluctuating above the 50 level, indicating that bullish momentum has dominated over the last 14 sessions. However, the indicator's curve has started to flatten. Over time, this could signal fading buying momentum, pointing to increased market indecision in the near term.
  TRIX: The TRIX also remains below the neutral 0 line, confirming that bearish pressure in the exponential moving averages is still relevant. If it fails to cross the neutral threshold, the broader chart will likely remain weighed down by the bearish bias that has dominated recent months.
  Key Levels:

1.16033 (Key Resistance): This previous high acts as the most important bullish barrier above the long-term bearish trendline dominating the chart. A sustained price move and close above this level could trigger a breakout of the current technical structure, opening the door for a new short-term bullish trendline to take shape.
  1.14801 (Nearby Barrier): This level corresponds to a significant retracement zone and coincides with the 50-period simple moving average. Failure of the price to consistently move away from this area could highlight ongoing indecision, potentially leading to the formation of a prolonged sideways channel.
  1.14300 (Ultimate Support): This level aligns with a retracement zone from previous weeks and stands as the most crucial psychological support. A drop back below this threshold could revive a dormant bearish bias and reinforce the extension of the long-term bearish trendline as the dominant structure.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

USDJPY edged higher from new lowest level in almost three months, following three-day sharp fall on coordinated intervention by Japan’s authorities and US central bank, to support weakening yen.

Massive intervention buying lifted yen against US dollar (nearly 5%) and Euro (4.2%), with yen’s weekly gains of 3.9% vs dollar and 3.1% vs Euro.

The authorities signaled that further intervention cannot be ruled out that keeps near-term focus at the downside, with current (still mild) bounce, seen as positioning for fresh push lower for both currency pairs (USDJPY and EURJPY).

The USDJPY surged through daily Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 160.67 and 158.48), broke through 200DMA (157.92) and trendline support (157.10), while EURJPY broke 200DMA support (183.62), to hit the lowest since 17 Nov 2025 (179.36) on Monday.

Technical picture on daily chart turned bearish for both pairs, but stretched indicators after sharp fall suggest that bears may take a breather, though with limited upticks, due to persisting risk for possible further intervention.

USDJPY – broken 200DMA turned to solid resistance which capped today’s action and should ideally limit upticks, guarding next significant barrier at 158.48, provided by the base of thick daily cloud.

Fresh bears eye next pivotal supports at 155.02/154.78 (May 6 low / Fibo 38.2% of 139.88/163.98 rally) break of which to generate stronger reversal signal and support scenario of direction change of 16-month uptrend.

EURJPY- upticks should ideally hold below 182.50 zone (Fibo 38.2% of 187.43/179.36 post-intervention fall) to keep bears intact for firm break through cracked 180 psychological support and acceleration towards 175.28 (Fibo 38.2% of 154.79/187.94) and 172.70 (100WMA) in extension.

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The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

This is an NFP week as markets brace for the release of a large influx of job market statistics. The data rollout begins with the JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday, continues with the ADP Employment report on Wednesday and Jobless claims on Thursday, and finishes with the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Traditionally, the NFP release is considered to be the most influential market event, and this time it arrives at a particularly sensitive moment. 

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has just delivered a 'hawkish hold', keeping the rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but three policymakers voted for a hike. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, remains sticky at 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), and markets are pricing a 68% probability of a rate increase at the September FOMC meeting. 

The upcoming NFP report will be decisive for whether the Fed tightens in September. Gold has pulled back sharply from its May highs and is under pressure from surging Treasury yields, while Bitcoin rebounded ~10% in July but remains vulnerable to macro headwinds. 

For a trader to reach a mastery level and achieve peak performance, it is important to have a clear view of what is happening in the market. In this article, Elev8 broker will highlight the key themes and factors that traders should monitor ahead of the NFP report and will conclude with the technical outlook for both gold and Bitcoin.

The contextSo far, the U.S. jobs market is actually in a relatively good shape. The economists describe it as being in the 'low hire, low fire' state, which signals neither stagnation nor expansion. However, the most recent data has taken a surprising turn to the downside, complicating the Fed's policy path as it tries to navigate between maximum employment and stable inflation.

This week brings a wealth of data that will offer traders a clearer picture of the job market and help them better assess the likelihood of a September rate hike.

Day

Release

Period

Previous

Consensus forecast

Tuesday (4 August)

JOLTS job openings

June

7.594 mln.

7.451

Wednesday (5 August)

ADP employment

June

+98,000

+70,000

Thursday (6 August)

Initial jobless claims

week (1 August)

+197,000

+201,000

Thursday (6 August)

Continuing claims

week (25 July)

1.782 mln.

N/A

Friday (7 August)

Nonfarm payrolls

July

+57,000

+83,000

Friday (7 August)

Unemployment rate

July

4.2%

4.3%

Friday (7 August)

Average hourly Earnings (m-o-m)

July

0.3%

0.3%

Friday (7 August)

Average hourly Earnings (y-o-y)

July

3.5%

3.5%

 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FXStreet Calendar

JOLTS. The previous reading of 7,594k showed a labour market with still-elevated openings but trending lower. This release (for June data) will be watched closely alongside the broader employment picture. ADP employment. The prior reading of +98k was notably stronger than the official NFP print of +57k for the same month. Markets will look for directional confirmation ahead of Friday's payrolls report. Jobless claims. Initial claims were at a remarkably low 197k the prior week, suggesting the 'low fire' element of the labour market remains intact. Nonfarm payrolls. June nonfarm payrolls came in at just +57,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, while the Q2 Employment Cost Index rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), with y-o-y wage growth of 3.2%, the slowest since Q2 2021. This week, Reuters surveys place the consensus at approximately 83,000, indicating an increase in hiring from June's weak +57k print. However, the unemployment rate is  expected to rise to 4.3%.The July 28–29 FOMC meeting produced a rare 9–3 split, with Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland's Hammack, and Minneapolis's Kashkari all dissenting in favour of a rate hike. All three policymakers publicly called for further tightening . New Fed chair Kevin Warsh has scaled back forward guidance, meaning each economic data release, particularly payrolls, will carry greater weight. As Kar Yong Ang, a financial market expert at Elev8 broker, noted: 'With Kevin Warsh in place, markets are likely to get less official clarity on future rate decisions. Therefore, traders should expect more volatility around key economic releases. But even if NFP comes out in line with the market consensus, it will almost guarantee a rate increase in September, so I am approaching both gold and Bitcoin with a bearish bias'.

Key themesApart from the NFP, traders also need to consider the general macroeconomic environment when contemplating the Fed's next move. Given the current complexity of the economic backdrop, we have compiled key underlying themes to monitor alongside the jobs data.

Theme

Why it matters

Fed credibility gap

Three dissenters + Warsh's vague guidance have sent 30-year yields to 19-year highs. The NFP result will test whether the hawkish part of the FOMC gains further ground.

Oil and inflation

Brent crude prices have surged by 18% since the Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions re-emerged in early July. Energy-driven inflation complicates the Fed's stance

U.S.–Japan yen intervention

Japan might have spent around $59 billion defending the yen. The U.S. Treasury also intervened, a rare event that reflects broader dollar dynamics affecting equities, bonds and commodities .

Treasury market stress

The MOVE index (bond volatility) is rising. Alberto Musalem, the president and CEO of the St. Louis Fed,  warned that the Treasury selloff signals the need for the Fed to earn its inflation-fighting credibility with rate increases.

Leading indicators

ISM Manufacturing PMI (due on Monday), JOLTS (Tuesday), ADP Employment (Wednesday), and Initial jobless claims (Thursday) will all set the tone ahead of Friday's NFP.

Source: Elev8 broker

GoldGold (XAUUSD) closed at approximately $4,107 per ounce (oz) on 31 July, down 1.29% on the day and some 26% below its all-time high of $5,627 reached on 29 January 2026. Gold has been under pressure from rising real yields: the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.745% (the highest since January 2025) while the 30-year reached 5.281% (the highest since mid-2007). Technically, XAUUSD is in a bearish trend even as it has been trading mostly sideways for the past month or so. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market expert at Elev8 broker, notes: 'Elevated oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations, so a weak NFP is unlikely to trigger a sustained rally in XAUUSD '.

Hot NFP (well above 90k) would cement September rate-hike expectations, likely pushing Treasury yields higher and gold lower.Soft NFP (well below 80k) could ease rate-hike pricing, potentially relieving pressure on gold.Key levels to watch are 4,190–4,220 area on the upside and 4,080–4,000 on the downside. In case of a bullish reaction to the NFP report, a failure to close above 4,200 would indicate that bears still dominate the market. Likewise, in case of a bearish reaction to the NFP report, a failure to close below 4,000 may be interpreted as an 'exhaustion selloff', potentially leading to a strong recovery.

BitcoinBitcoin's strong correlation with risk appetite and inverse correlation with real yields make it acutely sensitive to the rate hike path. Consequently, traders should expect BTCUSD volatility to increase around each jobs market report that comes out this week, including, of course, the NFP release.

According to Coinbase, Bitcoin closed at $62,826 per coin last Friday, down 2.93% on the day and down some 50% from its all-time high of $126,296, reached in October 2025. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market expert at Elev8 broker, notes: 'Inflation is Bitcoin's single most potent enemy. It is very hard to be bullish on bitcoin when global monetary policy is turning hawkish. A very weak if not depressing NFP is needed to invalidate the underlying bearish trend in cryptocurrencies'.  

Hot NFP (well above 90k) would weigh on Bitcoin as rate-hike expectations firm up. Outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) could accelerate, potentially pushing BTCUSD to a new year-to-date low. Soft NFP (well below 80K) could support risk appetite and crypto prices, particularly if rate hike expectations moderate. Bitcoin's July recovery would find firmer footing, and BTCUSD may finally escape its month-long range of 59,900–67,100.Key levels to watch are 66,600–67,300 area on the upside and 60,000–57,800 on the downside. In case of a bullish reaction to the NFP report, BTCUSD may jump above 65,400, but bears will continue to dominate the market in the mid term as long as the price remains below the previous swing low, near 67,000. In case of a bearish reaction to the NFP report, BTCUSD is likely to test the 60,000 level again, but only a break below 58,400 will invalidate the current consolidation pattern, potentially opening the way towards 56,500.

Disclaimer: This article does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Elev8 does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences.

Elev8 is a global broker that takes trading to a new level. Elev8 provides traders with an ecosystem designed to meet their needs, featuring a wide range of instruments, analytical and educational tools, integrated AI solutions, and responsive customer support. As a socially responsible broker, Elev8 funds various charitable projects and humanitarian efforts worldwide.

Gold moves sideways within a defined consolidation box just above the major $4,000 support level. The gold market initially gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Monday but has since pulled back to show signs of weakness. With that being the case, the market is still in a larger consolidation area that extends from $4,200 on the top down to about $3,900 on the bottom, with a lot of attention being paid to the obvious and large, round, psychologically significant figure of $4,000.

Gold is going to continue to be somewhat noisy, from what we can see, based on all of the moving factors out there, including the war in the Middle East, which, of course, at this point in time, is still a series of statements being made through the media that, quite frankly, you can’t trust. So, with that being the case, gold is going to have a hard time proving itself to be what I would call convincing. This is a market that will continue to see a lot of noise attached to it, via external factors that can greatly influence risk appetite.

Why confirmed US-Japan intervention pushed Yen strength into the crosses instead of breaking USD/JPY below 155 What’s happening: Japan and the US jointly confirmed last week’s coordinated Yen-buying intervention, the first since 2011, and did so unusually fast, extending the Yen’s rally into Monday’s session. Yet USD/JPY stalled just above the key 155 support level as buyers emerged, and Yen strength instead squeezed into the crosses, hitting AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY hardest. Why it matters: The pattern suggests traders don’t yet believe intervention was designed to force USD/JPY meaningfully below 155, just to prevent a rapid return above 160. Whether that adjustment mechanism, squeezing carry trades in the crosses, continues, or USD/JPY eventually breaks 155 outright, is one of the more important themes to watch this week.

Also today:

Oil gapped lower again to as low as $81.55 as the US cancelled planned strikes and Trump signaled talks with Iran, though Tehran says no direct negotiations are planned yet. A week of top-tier US data begins today with ISM Manufacturing, building toward Friday’s non-farm payrolls, which will shape the Fed’s flexibility heading into next week’s CPI report rather than settle September policy on its own. Confirmed Intervention Marks a Break From Japan’s Usual Playbook The week’s opening session was dominated by an unusually explicit display of currency cooperation between Washington and Tokyo. Both governments confirmed they had jointly intervened to support the Yen last week, marking the first coordinated operation since 2011. More striking than the intervention itself was the speed of the confirmation. Rather than adhering to Japan’s long-standing strategy of refusing to comment on intervention, officials on both sides moved quickly to acknowledge the operation, reinforcing the message that they stand ready to act again if necessary. The shift suggests policymakers are placing greater value on intervention credibility than on strategic ambiguity.

USD/JPY Stalls at 155 as Yen Strength Squeezes Into the Crosses That message initially extended last week’s Yen rally, pushing USD/JPY lower in early trading. Yet the decline stalled just ahead of the key 155 support area, where buyers emerged before the pair could test the level decisively. The price action is notable because it suggests traders remain reluctant to challenge what has become an important technical level. For now, the market still appears to believe the objective of last week’s intervention was to prevent another rapid return above 160 rather than engineer a sustained move below 155.

Instead of forcing USD/JPY through support, demand for the Japanese currency found another outlet. Yen strength was effectively squeezed into the crosses, with high-yielding currencies bearing the brunt of the adjustment. AUD/JPY led losses, followed by NZD/JPY, while GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY also declined sharply. The pattern points to a broader reduction in Yen-funded carry trades rather than outright Dollar weakness. Whether this remains the preferred adjustment mechanism, or whether USD/JPY eventually breaks below 155, will be one of the more interesting themes to watch in the days ahead.

Crosses Under Pressure AUD/JPY: led losses among Yen crosses NZD/JPY: second-sharpest decline GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY: also declined sharply

Oil Gaps Lower Again as Diplomatic Signals Conflict Oil markets also began the week with another sharp gap lower. Brent crude, which closed above $90 last week, briefly fell to as low as $81.55 before stabilizing around the $83 area. As in recent weeks, the move reflected hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East after the US cancelled planned military strikes over the weekend. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran would begin on Monday, again raising expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough.

Tehran, however, continued to offer a far more cautious assessment. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said there were no immediate plans for direct negotiations with Washington, reiterating that discussions remain limited to Omani mediation over the Strait of Hormuz. The conflicting narratives have become a familiar feature of this crisis. Markets appear reluctant to react aggressively to political statements alone, preferring to wait for tangible evidence of changes in shipping conditions or energy flows before reassessing geopolitical risk.

A Week Packed With Top-Tier US Data Attention now shifts firmly to a week packed with top-tier US economic data. ISM Manufacturing kicks things off today, followed by ISM Services, ADP employment and Friday’s non-farm payrolls. Fed funds futures continue to price a little over a 60% probability of a September rate hike, indicating markets still lean toward further tightening but without strong conviction.

That makes this week’s data particularly important, not because they are likely to determine September policy on their own, but because they will shape how much flexibility the Federal Reserve has heading into next week’s CPI report. A strong run of data would reinforce confidence in the economy and leave policymakers well positioned to tighten again should inflation remain sticky. Conversely, softer readings would raise the bar for another hike.

This Week’s US Data Calendar Today: ISM Manufacturing This week: ISM Services, ADP employment Friday: Non-farm payrolls Fed funds futures: a little over 60% probability of a September hike Currency Performance Today For the day so far, Yen is currently the strongest, followed by Euro, and then Dollar. Aussie is the worst, followed by Kiwi, and the Swiss Franc. Sterling and Loonie are positioning in the middle.

Related Coverage Yen & Precious Metals Deep Dives Read the deeper dive into why Japan and the US broke decades of strategic ambiguity to confirm intervention this fast, and what holding above 155 would signal: Why Did Japan and the US Confirm Intervention So Fast? Can USD/JPY Hold 155?. See why Gold has stopped reacting to oil, yields and the Dollar, and what could finally break its trading range: Why Gold Ignores Oil, Yields and Dollar, and What Could Finally Break the Range. Global Manufacturing PMI Roundup Read why the UK’s softer PMI headline masks the fastest factory output growth in almost two years: UK PMI Manufacturing at Four-Month Low, but Faster Output Growth Points to Resilient Recovery. See why Eurozone factory output hit a 52-month high, and why the recovery still isn’t being driven by fresh demand: Eurozone PMI Manufacturing at Three-Month High, but Recovery Still Lacks Fresh Demand. Read how AI and semiconductor demand are offsetting Middle East-related cost pressures in Japan’s factory sector: Japan PMI Manufacturing Finalized at 54.5, AI Demand Offsets Middle East Headwinds. See why Australia’s manufacturing rebound to a six-month high still comes with a fragility warning: Australia Manufacturing PMI Finalizes at Six-Month High, Yet Inflation and Supply Risks Limit Confidence. Read the three encouraging trends inside China’s slower manufacturing expansion: China’s Manufacturing Expansion Slowed, but Three Trends Offer Encouragement. Inflation Data See why Swiss inflation’s slip to 0.4% is concentrated in imported goods, not domestic price pressures: Swiss CPI Slips to 0.4% in July on Lower Fuel and Airfare Costs. Frequently Asked Questions Q: Why did USD/JPY stall at 155 instead of continuing lower after confirmed intervention? A: Buyers emerged just ahead of the 155 support area before the pair could test it decisively, suggesting traders remain reluctant to challenge what has become an important technical level. The market still appears to believe last week’s intervention was aimed at preventing a rapid return above 160, not at engineering a sustained move below 155.

Q: Why is Yen strength showing up in crosses like AUD/JPY instead of pushing USD/JPY lower? A: Instead of forcing USD/JPY through support, demand for the Japanese currency found another outlet in the crosses. AUD/JPY led losses, followed by NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY, a pattern that points to a broader reduction in Yen-funded carry trades rather than outright Dollar weakness.

Q: Why did Brent gap lower again despite Iran signaling no immediate direct talks with the US? A: The gap reflected hopes of easing tensions after the US cancelled planned military strikes over the weekend and President Trump said negotiations with Iran would begin Monday. Iran, however, offered a more cautious assessment, with its Foreign Ministry saying discussions remain limited to Omani mediation over the Strait of Hormuz. Markets have grown reluctant to react aggressively to political statements alone, preferring tangible evidence of changes in shipping conditions or energy flows.

Key Takeaways Confirmed intervention marks a real shift in strategy: Japan and the US jointly confirmed last week’s coordinated Yen-buying operation, the first since 2011, and did so far faster than Japan’s usual practice of strategic ambiguity. USD/JPY is defending 155, not breaking it: The pair stalled just ahead of the support zone as buyers emerged, suggesting markets see intervention’s goal as capping a return above 160, not forcing a sustained move below 155. Yen strength got squeezed into the crosses instead: AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY all fell sharply, pointing to a broader unwind of Yen-funded carry trades rather than Dollar weakness. Oil’s gap lower reflects hope, not confirmation: Brent fell as low as $81.55 on prospects of US-Iran talks, but Iran’s Foreign Ministry says no direct negotiations are planned yet, just Omani mediation, keeping the conflicting-narrative pattern intact. This week’s US data matters more for Fed flexibility than for a September verdict: ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, ADP and Friday’s payrolls will shape how much room the Fed has heading into next week’s CPI report, with Fed funds futures currently pricing just over 60% odds of a September hike. What to Watch Next Whether USD/JPY eventually breaks below 155 or continues bleeding out through the Yen crosses is one of the week’s key technical questions. On the data side, today’s ISM Manufacturing kicks off a run of releases culminating in Friday’s non-farm payrolls, all of which will help determine how much flexibility the Fed has heading into next week’s CPI report.

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EUR/USD begins the week around 1.1540. Following a volatile week, market attention has shifted from the Federal Reserve meeting to US economic data. Investors will assess whether incoming figures reinforce the case for a September rate hike or, conversely, point to a cooling of the US economy.

Monday brings business activity indices from China and the US. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at approximately 53.0, down from 53.3 previously. Holding firmly above 50 would support the dollar, while a more pronounced slowdown would raise doubts about economic resilience and provide support for EUR/USD. On Tuesday, attention turns to JOLTS job openings, with forecasts pointing to a decline to 7.3 million from 7.594 million.

Wednesday’s highlight is the ISM Services PMI, expected to rise to 55 from 54. A strong reading would support the dollar, as services remain a key component of the US economy and an important source of inflationary pressure. Thursday’s calendar is relatively quiet, leaving the pair to consolidate ahead of Friday’s key releases.

On Friday, Germany will release foreign trade data, with the surplus expected to narrow to €11.2 billion from €19.1 billion. The main event, however, will be the US labour market report. Non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise by 79,000, up from 57,000, while unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. A stronger reading would reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike and weigh on EUR/USD, while weak job growth or rising unemployment would support the euro.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1533 level, currently extending between 1.1524 and 1.1538. This range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1556, followed by a decline to 1.1480. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1400. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing downwards, reflecting weakening upward momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1556 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower towards 1.1480 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1518, and then a continuation of the downward move to 1.1400, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.1330. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion EUR/USD begins a data-heavy week with markets focused on US economic indicators following the Fed’s policy decision. The ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, JOLTS job openings, and Friday’s labour market report will be crucial in shaping expectations for a potential September rate hike. A strong set of data would support the dollar, while weaker readings could support the euro. Technically, the pair appears to be consolidating around 1.1533, with a potential corrective move towards 1.1556 before resuming its broader bearish trajectory towards 1.1400 and possibly 1.1330. The week’s data releases will be the key catalysts for direction.

Disclaimer
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The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate recovered to 1.8895 at Friday’s close, reversing much of its early-week decline as Sterling strengthened following the Bank of England decision.

Canadian trade and employment figures will provide the main tests for the GBP/CAD this week.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.890452 (+0.05%)

Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.618402 (+0.16%)

Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.40288 (+0.10%)

WEEKLY RECAP:

GBP/CAD slipped below 1.8750 early last week before rallying through the final three sessions.

Pound Sterling drew support after the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three policymakers voting for an immediate increase.

Governor Andrew Bailey played down the urgency of another move, and markets reduced their expectations for a September hike. Even so, UK yield spreads remain supportive enough to limit Sterling selling.

The Canadian Dollar also finished July on a firmer footing.

Canadian GDP rose 0.3% in May, beating forecasts, while April’s expansion was revised up to 0.6%. An initial estimate placed second-quarter annualised growth at 3.4%, comfortably above the Bank of Canada’s 2.5% forecast.

The stronger figures reinforced expectations that the BoC will leave rates unchanged over the coming months.

Scotiabank cautioned that the US-Canada yield gap remains “a formidable restraint on the CAD”, although recent price action suggests some momentum is shifting in the Loonie’s favour.

ING remains more guarded, arguing that the Canadian Dollar’s recovery should be slow because its carry appeal is limited and USMCA uncertainty remains a potential drag.

Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Canadian Jobs Report Takes Centre Stage For Pound Sterling, Monday’s final manufacturing PMI is followed by Wednesday’s services PMI and Thursday’s construction survey.

Another weak construction reading would reinforce the BoE’s cautious assessment of UK growth.

Canadian markets are closed for Monday’s Civic Holiday.

Tuesday brings Canada’s trade balance, forecast to narrow from C$4.2 billion to C$3.0 billion, followed by the manufacturing PMI.

Friday’s labour report is the main event. Employment is forecast to rise by 15,000, while unemployment is expected to remain at 6.5%.

Stronger hiring could support the Canadian Dollar and pull GBP/CAD towards 1.8750. A weak report, particularly alongside softer oil prices, could lift the pair through 1.90 and towards 1.9050.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.38 per troy ounce, up 1.37% from the $57.59 it cost on Friday.

Silver prices have decreased by 17.88% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.56 on Monday, down from 70.19 on Friday.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

EUR/USD begins the week around 1.1540. Following a volatile week, market attention has shifted from the Federal Reserve meeting to US economic data. Investors will assess whether incoming figures reinforce the case for a September rate hike or, conversely, point to a cooling of the US economy.

Monday brings business activity indices from China and the US. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at approximately 53.0, down from 53.3 previously. Holding firmly above 50 would support the dollar, while a more pronounced slowdown would raise doubts about economic resilience and provide support for EUR/USD. On Tuesday, attention turns to JOLTS job openings, with forecasts pointing to a decline to 7.3 million from 7.594 million.

Wednesday’s highlight is the ISM Services PMI, expected to rise to 55 from 54. A strong reading would support the dollar, as services remain a key component of the US economy and an important source of inflationary pressure. Thursday’s calendar is relatively quiet, leaving the pair to consolidate ahead of Friday’s key releases.

On Friday, Germany will release foreign trade data, with the surplus expected to narrow to €11.2 billion from €19.1 billion. The main event, however, will be the US labour market report. Non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise by 79,000, up from 57,000, while unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. A stronger reading would reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike and weigh on EUR/USD, while weak job growth or rising unemployment would support the euro.

Technical analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1533 level, currently extending between 1.1524 and 1.1538. This range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1556, followed by a decline to 1.1480. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1400. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing downwards, reflecting weakening upward momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1556 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower towards 1.1480 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1518, and then a continuation of the downward move to 1.1400, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.1330. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.

ConclusionEUR/USD begins a data-heavy week with markets focused on US economic indicators following the Fed’s policy decision. The ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, JOLTS job openings, and Friday’s labour market report will be crucial in shaping expectations for a potential September rate hike. A strong set of data would support the dollar, while weaker readings could support the euro. Technically, the pair appears to be consolidating around 1.1533, with a potential corrective move towards 1.1556 before resuming its broader bearish trajectory towards 1.1400 and possibly 1.1330. The week’s data releases will be the key catalysts for direction.

The USD/JPY exchange rate has dropped to the crucial support level of 155.20, its lowest level since May 6, as the Japanese yen continues to outperform most major currencies this year. The pair has retreated by more than 4% from its year-to-date high, highlighting the dollar's recent weakness. 

This article explores why the Trump administration moved to support the greenback and what it means for the pair.

The US intervened in the currency market by converting its huge euro holdings into the currency. According to the FT, the transaction was implemented by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York through Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

This intervention came a day after the Bank of Japan also carried out a major intervention worth about 8.45 trillion yen or $52.8 billion. 

One reason why the Trump administration decided to intervene is because of the US bond market and the fact that Japan is the biggest holder. Japan holds over $1.14 trillion of US public debt, a figure that has been in a downward trend after peaking at $1.24 trillion in February.

Data shows that US bond yields have been rising in the past few months. The 30-year yield jumped to a 19-year high of 5.28% last year. Also, the ten-year yield jumped to 4.74%.

Trump’s fear is that Japan will continue dumping US treasuries to boost the yen, which, will in theory, will push bond yields higher. This is important because the US public debt continues rising and is approaching the $40 trillion mark. US deficits are also rising and is expected to hit $2 trillion mark.

Therefore, by intervening, the Trump administration hopes that Japan will not dump its US treasuries as China has done. China holds $659 billion worth of US bonds, down from over $1.3 trillion in 2013.

President Trump has always been focused on trade deficits, which explains his tariff strategy. The most recent data showed that Japan’s trade surplus with the US jumped to over $47 billion. This number is driven by vehicles and key machinery.

One reason for the rising surplus is the weaker yen, which helps to offset the impact of Trump’s tariffs. As such, by focusing on the stronger yen, Trump hopes that it will help to boost US exports.

Trump has also intervened because, as we saw with Argentina, he has a personal relationship with Sanae Takaichi. He met her at the White House in May, and has spoken highly of her. As such, intervention is a way of helping her bring inflation downwards.

Still, the impact of these interventions will likely be short-lived because of the interest rate differentials between the US and Japan. The BoJ and the Fed left interest rates unchanged last week, and analysts now predict the Fed will hike this year. Unless the the BoJ hikes, chances are that the yen will remain under pressure. 

USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY pair has plunged from last week’s high of 163.97 to a low of 155.20, its lowest level since May 6. It has dropped below the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since February this year.

The pair is forming a large doji pattern, a common bullish reversal sign in technical analysis. Therefore, as we saw in April following the BoJ intervention, there is a possibility that the pair will rebound, potentially to 160.

HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 03.08.2026 USD Fails to Advance

USDJPY looking for another low
The dollar stopped short of turning things around after last week’s intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance.

The pair heads towards 157.00 as traders look for a confirmation break at this level. 157.40 is the level to see if more bears will step in before the pair extends lower. The RSI’s move towards the oversold area could see a test at 159.00, before a possible lift towards 160.75. EURGBP hits rejection

As the pair hit a new low around 0.8550, a potential bullish divergence on the RSI suggests a loss of momentum as prices find some support.

A break below 0.8550 would provide confirmation and prompt more buyers to cover. The former support of 0.8480 could be the last obstacle standing in the way of a substantial sell-off. On the upside, a spike above 0.8600 would undermine sellers’ efforts and trigger a rally to test the previous high above 0.8660. US 30 Index tests daily support
The Dow holds steady as the market digested the recent Fed announcement.

Spikes in price action suggest the index is testing the previous swing low around 52000. The top of a limited bounce at 52600 is the first hurdle to clear. In case of a bearish breakout, a move past 52400 opens up 51800 at the base of the breakout rally. Trading the forex market requires extensive research, and that’s what we do best

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Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.

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Gold (XAUUSD) remains under pressure as markets prepare for major US economic events this week. Expectations for higher US interest rates continue to weigh on sentiment, while a weaker US Dollar helps limit additional losses. Market attention now turns to key economic data and geopolitical developments that could provide fresh direction for gold.

Gold holds ground as softer Dollar offsets hawkish Fed expectationsGold starts the week on a cautious note as markets prepare for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report later this week. Expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September remain elevated. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a roughly 65% probability to a rate increase. Higher interest rate expectations continue to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

At the same time, weakness in the US Dollar helped limit gold's downside. The US Dollar came under pressure after the Japanese Yen strengthened sharply as markets focused on the possibility of another round of official intervention. USD/JPY fell to its lowest level in three months before recovering part of its losses. The softer US Dollar provided underlying support for gold and prevented a deeper decline.

Geopolitical developments continue to influence gold prices. Market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump announced that fresh attacks on Iran had been cancelled and peace talks would begin soon. The announcement pushed oil prices lower and eased concerns about higher inflation driven by energy markets. Attention now turns to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and developments surrounding the US-Iran discussions. These events, together with the US Nonfarm Payrolls report later this week, could determine the next short-term move in both the US Dollar and gold.

Gold technical analysis: Descending wedge keeps recovery limitedThe gold chart below shows price trading within a broad descending wedge that has guided price action in recent months. The pattern reflects a sustained corrective phase, with both the upper resistance line and the lower support line continuing to contain price movements. Gold remains below the descending resistance line, indicating that the broader corrective structure is still intact.

Recent price action shows gold stabilizing above an important horizontal support area. The decline has lost momentum, and price is consolidating while remaining within the wedge. This suggests that downside pressure has eased, although the broader corrective structure has yet to show a confirmed reversal. The descending resistance trendline continues to represent the key technical barrier for any sustained recovery.

Gold is now trading close to the wedge resistance, making this an important technical level to monitor. A sustained move above this resistance would suggest that the corrective phase is weakening and could improve the near-term technical outlook. Conversely, another rejection from the resistance would keep the wedge structure intact and maintain the current corrective bias. Until price breaks decisively in either direction, the wedge continues to define the near-term technical outlook.

Gold outlook: Economic reports and geopolitical developments in focusGold continues to hold a cautious tone as markets prepare for major US economic releases and geopolitical updates. Expectations for higher US interest rates continue to weigh on sentiment, while a weaker US Dollar helps limit additional losses. From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within its descending wedge. A sustained move above the wedge resistance could improve the near-term outlook, while another rejection would keep the current corrective structure intact.

The AUD/JPY cross attracts heavy follow-through selling and touches its lowest level since late March, around the 109.40-109.35 region at the start of a new week. Spot prices, however, defend a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and trade around the 110.00 psychological mark during the first half of the European session, still down nearly 0.50% for the day.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative outperformance on the back of a joint US-Japan FX intervention on Friday and hints of further action. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) readiness to continue pushing up borrowing costs lends additional support to the JPY, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor weighing on the AUD/JPY cross. Apart from this, diminishing odds of an immediate interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) undermine the Australian Dollar (AUD) and suggest that the path of least resistance for the currency pair is to the downside.

From a technical perspective, an intraday failure near the 111.25-111.15 region reaffirms Friday's breakdown through a nearly four-month-old trading range and validates the near-term negative outlook for the AUD/JPY cross. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned deeper into negative ground, hinting at lingering downside momentum. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (14) has slipped to oversold territory near 27, making it prudent to wait for a break below the 200-day SMA at 109.25 before positioning for further losses.

A clear break below this floor would likely expose the AUD/JPY cross to a more decisive bearish phase. On the flip side, any attempted recovery might continue to face stiff resistance and remain capped near the 111.15-111.25 region, which, if cleared, might trigger a short-covering move. The broadly bearish technical setup, however, would warrant caution before confirming that the recent corrective decline from the vicinity of the 115.00 psychological mark has run its course and that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom.

AUD/JPY daily chart

Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.21%0.27%-0.17%0.20%0.41%0.52%0.31%EUR-0.21%0.07%-0.33%0.00%0.30%0.32%0.10%GBP-0.27%-0.07%-0.74%-0.07%0.24%0.25%0.03%JPY0.17%0.33%0.74%0.43%0.71%0.79%0.57%CAD-0.20%-0.00%0.07%-0.43%0.29%0.36%0.10%AUD-0.41%-0.30%-0.24%-0.71%-0.29%0.00%-0.18%NZD-0.52%-0.32%-0.25%-0.79%-0.36%-0.00%-0.22%CHF-0.31%-0.10%-0.03%-0.57%-0.10%0.18%0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Summary:

EUR/USD climbed to its highest level in more than six weeks after breaking above 1.1500. Softer expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening continued to pressure the US dollar. Traders now await ISM manufacturing data before shifting attention to Friday's US payrolls report. The euro began the week on a stronger footing, extending last week’s rally as broad-based weakness in the US dollar continued to support the common currency. EUR/USD climbed above 1.1500, reaching its highest level since mid-June after investors scaled back expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to resume raising interest rates this year.

Last week’s Fed meeting marked a turning point for the dollar. Although policymakers left interest rates unchanged, markets were unconvinced that officials are prepared to deliver another hike unless inflation accelerates significantly. Treasury yields retreated after the meeting, dragging the greenback lower across major currency pairs and allowing the euro to recover sharply from July’s lows.

At the same time, geopolitical concerns eased after reports that the United States postponed further military action against Iran. The decline in oil prices that followed helped reduce immediate inflation concerns, removing one of the main factors that had recently supported the US dollar.

US economic data now becomes the next catalyst for EUR/USD With the Federal Reserve now temporarily out of the spotlight, investors are turning their attention to incoming economic data for fresh clues on the direction of US monetary policy.

Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI will offer an early indication of how the US industrial sector performed in July after recent signs that business activity has begun to stabilize. Markets will also monitor the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for confirmation of broader economic momentum.

However, attention is already shifting toward Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, widely regarded as the week’s most important release. A resilient labour market could revive expectations for tighter monetary policy later this year, while weaker employment growth would strengthen the view that the Fed has reached the end of its tightening cycle.

That makes this week’s data particularly important for EUR/USD after last week’s breakout.

Euro buyers regain technical control The technical picture has improved considerably over the past several sessions.

After establishing support around 1.1350, EUR/USD has produced a strong impulsive recovery, breaking through the psychological 1.1500 level while also clearing the descending trendline that had capped prices since June.

The rally has been accompanied by a move back above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the argument that medium-term bullish momentum is returning. Price is now consolidating just below 1.1560, suggesting buyers are pausing after a rapid advance rather than showing signs of exhaustion.

A sustained move above 1.1558 would expose the June high near 1.1620, while a successful break there could encourage a broader recovery toward 1.1650.

Bullish Outlook The outlook remains positive while EUR/USD holds above 1.1480. Continued weakness in the US dollar and softer Treasury yields could allow buyers to challenge 1.1558, with 1.1620 becoming the next major upside objective.

Bearish Outlook Failure to hold above 1.1480 would increase the risk of profit-taking after last week’s rally. A decisive break below 1.1430 could expose 1.1350, signalling that the recent recovery was only corrective rather than the beginning of a broader trend reversal.

On the downside, the first layer of support sits near 1.1480, followed by 1.1455, which represents the midpoint of the latest advance. A move below 1.1430 would weaken the current bullish structure and suggest that sellers are regaining control.

EUR/USD Outlook The near-term outlook for EUR/USD remains constructive after last week’s decisive break above the 1.1500 psychological level shifted momentum back in favour of buyers. However, the pair is entering a data-heavy week that could determine whether the rally has enough strength to extend toward the June highs. Traders will closely monitor the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Softer-than-expected US data could reinforce dollar weakness and lift EUR/USD toward 1.1620, while stronger economic readings may trigger a pullback as investors revive expectations of tighter US monetary policy. For now, the broader bias remains bullish as long as the pair holds above key support around 1.1480.