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EURUSD remains constructive and holding above 1.1500 mark (round-figure / broken upper bull-channel boundary) for the fourth consecutive day, despite Monday’s pullback from new highest since June 17 that warned of potential stall of the latest recovery rally from 1.1353 to 1.1559.

Bulls were so far unable to register a clear break above Fibo barrier at 1.1524 (38.2% of 1.1849/1.1324 descend) and additionally capped by falling trendline off 1.1849 (currently at 1.1533), but the following action found footstep at 1.1500 (guarding another significant support at 1.1465, provided by daily cloud base), keeping near term bias with bulls, despite fading bullish momentum and overbought stochastic on daily chart.

Weaker dollar contributes to Euro’s positively aligned near term outlook, though sustained break of 1.1524/33 pivots remain required to validate scenario and signal bullish continuation and unmask next barriers at 1.1567 (100DMA); 1.1586 (daily cloud top) and 1.1627 (200DMA) in extension.

Res: 1.1540; 1.1567; 1.1586; 1.1627
Sup: 1.1500; 1.1465; 1.1448; 1.1433

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The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

Silver futures trade around 60.020, holding at the 60.000 level while staying below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Source: TradingView. The silver market has rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but ultimately this is a market that is starting to test the $60 level yet again. This is an area that has been resistance previously, and then after that, the $62.50 level has been resistance. The 50-day EMA is the moving average that a lot of traders will watch. This is an area that is technical resistance as well, so it is worth paying attention to.

Lower Yields and Energy Inflation Concerns Ultimately, this is a market that is going to remain noisy, and it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of questions asked about the interest rate market. It has seen lower yields during the session, and that, of course, helped silver with the idea that silver will continue to move based on inflationary expectations and the idea that we are electrifying the overall economy and driving up the massive demand for silver eventually.

Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is inching higher Wednesday as prices continue to consolidate inside the short-term retracement zone at $4072.40 to $4041.65. The market has been straddling this zone for a month. While it has been doing this, the downtrend has not changed. Sellers have produced two lower tops at $4166.13 and $4202.71, while buyers have defended bottoms at $3942.10, $3959.80 and $3996.06.

The chart pattern could be signaling accumulation or distribution. The answer comes from the direction of the breakout.

If buyers are accumulating, a sustained move over the 50% level at $4072.40 could lead to an upside breakout and a test of the 50-day moving average at $4166.11. This indicator and the nearby swing top at $4166.13 form a resistance cluster and define the short-term trend. Overtaking them could generate enough upside momentum to take out the swing tops at $4202.71 and $4382.62.

If the market breaks over the 50-day moving average, the 200-day moving average at $4489.33 becomes the next major upside target.

If the consolidation is distribution, or simply a pause in the bear market selling, traders are likely to press prices lower through the Fibonacci level at $4041.65. If selling is strong enough, the three bottoms at $3996.06, $3959.80 and $3942.10 become the next support levels. A sustained move through them could lead to a test of the long-term bottom at $3886.46, which could trigger an acceleration to the downside.

GBP/JPY on Tuesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gives back part of its recent rally, which was driven by coordinated intervention from Tokyo and Washington.

At the time of writing, the cross trades around 211.55, up 0.20% on the day.

Yen support from US intervention seen as limited and time-buyingAnalysts at MUFG/BTMU argue that the recent bout of joint FX intervention offers only partial and temporary relief for the Yen. They stress that, "on balance, we expect US intervention to support the yen to remain relatively small in scale," even if coordinated action with Japan helps steady the currency in the near term. In their view, "while joint intervention may prove more effective at helping to provide support for the yen in the near-term, we still believe that it can only buy time." MUFG/BTMU conclude that, ultimately, "there will need to be a change in fundamentals as well to encourage a sustainable reversal of the yen weakening trend that has been in place over the last five years."

Despite Tuesday’s rebound, the near-term technical picture for GBP/JPY has turned bearish. The recent sell-off pushed the cross decisively below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since April 2025, with the pair now testing the 200-day SMA.

Technical analysis

On the daily chart, GBP/JPY trades below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 214.45 and hovers around the 200-day SMA at 211.75, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 30 hints at oversold conditions and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains deeply negative, reinforcing selling pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 214.45, followed by the horizontal barrier at 216.50, with a stronger cap emerging near 220.

On the downside, the 200-day SMA at 211.75 marks first support ahead of the 210 level, with deeper floors at 207 and 205, where bears could start to lose momentum if the RSI slips further into oversold territory.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.06%-0.08%0.14%0.10%-0.44%-0.22%-0.15%EUR0.06%-0.04%0.22%0.15%-0.41%-0.19%-0.08%GBP0.08%0.04%0.28%0.21%-0.35%-0.13%-0.04%JPY-0.14%-0.22%-0.28%-0.06%-0.60%-0.41%-0.19%CAD-0.10%-0.15%-0.21%0.06%-0.54%-0.34%-0.24%AUD0.44%0.41%0.35%0.60%0.54%0.22%0.30%NZD0.22%0.19%0.13%0.41%0.34%-0.22%0.10%CHF0.15%0.08%0.04%0.19%0.24%-0.30%-0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

ING strategist Ewa Manthey highlights that Gold has extended its recovery, posting its first monthly gain since February. The metal is supported by easing Middle East geopolitical tensions and sharply lower Oil prices, which reduce inflation concerns. However, ongoing uncertainty over US monetary policy and expectations of rates staying higher for longer are seen as limiting significant upside for bullion.

Bullion balances geopolitics and Fed risks"Gold edged higher, extending its recovery after posting its first monthly gain since February in July."

"Prices found support from easing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Reports of diplomatic efforts aimed at improving shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz helped to drive a sharp decline in oil prices."

"Lower energy prices have eased some inflation concerns, offering a more supportive backdrop for bullion."

"Meanwhile, markets continue to assess the outlook for US monetary policy following last week's Federal Reserve meeting."

"Gold is likely to remain caught between improving geopolitical sentiment and ongoing uncertainty over US interest rates."

"Any further decline in energy prices could help improve the macro backdrop for bullion, though expectations for rates to stay higher for longer may continue to limit upside."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The pound just closed its strongest week against the dollar in months, ending July up more than 1% and holding just below $1.35. Two factors are driving the move. First, political risk has faded: the UK appointed its seventh prime minister in a decade, and the new government’s pledge of fiscal discipline has reassured markets. Second, the Bank of England surprised with a more hawkish tone than expected—policymakers voted 6-3 to hold rates steady, but three members pushed for a hike, a stronger signal of resolve than markets had priced in.

The dollar, meanwhile, has had a rough few sessions. Following the Fed’s decision to hold rates for a fifth consecutive meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity on the path ahead, leaving investors questioning whether the central bank is doing enough to bring inflation back to target. The dollar index posted its worst weekly performance in three months as a result, though roughly two-thirds of the market still expects a September hike.

With both central banks striking cautiously hawkish tones but offering little forward guidance, GBP/USD’s next move looks set to hinge on incoming US labor data.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD

As the GBP/USD chart shows, the pair has been compressing into a broad symmetrical triangle since January’s highs, with price now converging near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement around 1.3427, exactly where the two trendlines meet. This narrowing structure suggests a decisive breakout may be approaching after months of range-bound trading.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers push through the descending trendline and reclaim the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near 1.3510, the path would open toward the 0.618 level around 1.3594, with a stronger move potentially targeting the 1.3865 highs from January if fundamental momentum aligns.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline would expose the 1.3200 support zone, with a more significant breakdown risking a retest of the 1.3155 low that anchored this entire triangle formation.

With price coiled right at the apex of this multi-month triangle, and both the Fed and incoming labor data serving as potential catalysts, GBP/USD looks primed for its next major directional move—will the pound extend its recent strength, or is the dollar poised for a comeback?

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USD/JPY trades around 157.95 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.49% on the day. After the Japanese Yen's (JPY) sharp rebound driven by coordinated intervention from Japanese and US authorities in the foreign exchange market last week, investors are gradually shifting their focus back to underlying fundamentals, allowing the US Dollar (USD) to recover part of its recent losses.

Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed that Tokyo and Washington conducted coordinated intervention to support the Japanese currency. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities would not hesitate to intervene again if necessary. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Washington remains prepared to cooperate in future interventions, while US President Donald Trump described the move as "a signal of friendship." According to Bloomberg, Japan is estimated to have spent around $34 billion on last week's intervention.

However, market attention is now turning toward Japan's fiscal outlook. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has backed a proposal to temporarily reduce the food consumption tax from 8% to 1% starting in April 2027, alongside roughly ¥600 billion in annual cash transfers for low- and middle-income households. The lack of a clearly defined funding mechanism has raised investor concerns, putting renewed pressure on the Japanese Yen.

Meanwhile, the interest rate differential continues to limit the Japanese currency's upside potential. Although the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy rate to 1% in June, borrowing costs remain well below those of other major economies, continuing to support carry trades and providing an additional tailwind for USD/JPY.

Investors are also monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East. While tensions between the United States (US) and Iran appear to have eased temporarily, conflicting statements from both sides continue to encourage a cautious market mood.

Attention now turns to US labor market data, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) due later on Tuesday ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Economists expect the US economy to have added 83K jobs in July after 57K in June, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. Stronger-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in September, providing additional support for the US Dollar.

Yen support seen as temporary with USDJPY downside limitedAnalysts at MUFG note that the Yen has "weakened modestly during the Asian trading session," pushing USD/JPY "back up to within touching distance of the 200-day moving average at around 158.00 after hitting a low yesterday at 157.18." On the policy front, MUFG expects "US intervention to support the yen to remain relatively small in scale," and while they acknowledge that "joint intervention may prove more effective at helping to provide support for the yen in the near-term, we still believe that it can only buy time." In their view, "there will need to be a change in fundamentals as well to encourage a sustainable reversal of the yen weakening trend that has been in place over the last five years," with "more US pressure on Japan to allow a faster pace of BoJ policy normalization as part of the joint intervention arrangement" described as "an important step to help reverse yen weakness."

TD Securities takes a similar line on the durability of any downside move, arguing that "momentum could briefly push USDJPY lower to 153, but we do not expect the pair sustainably trading below it, absent BoJ and full US Treasury commitment." They stress that, "absent prolonged direct US involvement and more hawkish BoJ monetary policy, the combination of valuation, positioning, and trend-following modeling would suggest limited short-term USDJPY downside to 153.00," and reiterate that "in the absence of more hawkish BoJ monetary policy and prolonged direct US involvement to intervene JPY, the combination of valuation, positioning, and trend-following would suggest limited short-term USDJPY downside to 153.00, in our view." Their trend-following signals show that "USDJPY trend turned from uptrend to neutral, but it is not yet in downtrend," and, consistent with that assessment, TD Securities says, "for now, we maintain our year-end forecast of 159.00 for USDJPY."

USD/JPY technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 157.88, maintaining a capped tone as it holds below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.85 and the 200-period SMA at 161.78. The pair is edging higher above the broken rising trend-line reference at 157.72 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 157.30, yet the broader setup suggests rallies remain vulnerable while these key averages stay overhead, even as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.22 hints at moderately constructive short-term momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 38.2% retracement at 158.58, followed by a more meaningful barrier at the 50.0% level at 159.61, just ahead of the 100-period SMA at 159.85. Further up, the 61.8% retracement at 160.64 and the 200-period SMA at 161.78 converge with the 78.6% level at 162.12 to define a dense supply zone. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 157.72 trend-line break area, with the 23.6% retracement at 157.30 underpinning the move; a deeper slide would expose the Fibonacci anchor near 155.23 as the next significant floor.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Dollar, capped at 0.8100, hints at a potential “H&S” pattern

TL;DR: GBP/CAD looks ready to resume its uptrend after rebounding from the 55-day EMA, but a sustained breakout depends on two separate forces — Friday’s volatile Canadian jobs report and whether oil’s renewed strength above $86 continues to support the Canadian Dollar.

Why the Correction May Already Be Over After nearly a month of consolidation, GBP/CAD is showing signs that its broader uptrend may be ready to resume. The pair has rebounded convincingly after holding the 55-day EMA, suggesting the pullback from 1.9042 was a healthy correction rather than a change in trend. A retest of the July high now looks likely. Whether GBP/CAD can convert that into a sustained breakout, however, will depend on two very different forces: this week’s Canadian labor market data and the direction of oil prices.

Force One: The Scheduled Risk — A Volatile Canadian Jobs Report The first is the easier of the two to assess. Canada’s July employment report is expected to show job growth of 15k, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.5%. Those numbers would broadly indicate a labor market that remains stable despite slowing economic momentum. Yet recent history suggests caution — Canada’s employment data have repeatedly produced large surprises this year, swinging from an unexpected -18k decline in April to an 88k surge in May, before moderating to 18k in June. That volatility means another downside surprise cannot be dismissed.

A softer employment report would likely weaken the Canadian Dollar by reinforcing the Bank of Canada’s patient policy stance. The BoC has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings since its October 2025 rate cut, repeatedly signaling it’s prepared to look through temporary inflation shocks as long as underlying price pressures remain contained. Weak labor market data would support that approach by reducing the urgency for any policy tightening — and could provide the catalyst for GBP/CAD to revisit 1.9042.

Force Two: The Unscheduled Risk — Oil’s Renewed Grip on the Canadian Dollar The bigger challenge lies beyond Friday’s data. The main reason GBP/CAD lost momentum after reaching 1.9042 in early July was the sharp reversal in oil prices. Brent crude had bottomed near $70 before surging above $100 following the collapse of the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire, restoring strong support for the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar and forcing GBP/CAD into a month-long consolidation.

The pair’s rebound from 1.8709 has coincided with Brent’s retreat from above $100 to around $80, which eased some of that support for the Canadian Dollar. But oil has since recovered above $86 as geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, once again acting as a headwind for Sterling. The current advance in GBP/CAD therefore looks less constrained by Canadian domestic fundamentals than by the renewed resilience of crude prices.

Why the Geopolitical Backdrop Hasn’t Actually Changed The geopolitical backdrop has changed little despite alternating headlines from Washington and Tehran. President Donald Trump has shifted from projecting confidence in imminent negotiations to warning that Iran faces a “last chance,” while Tehran continues to insist there are no immediate plans for direct talks with the United States, limiting engagement to Oman’s mediation over the Strait of Hormuz. The fundamental disagreement over the future of the waterway remains unresolved, leaving markets reluctant to remove the geopolitical premium embedded in oil prices.

That distinction is important. A weak Canadian employment report may be enough to propel GBP/CAD back toward 1.9042, but it’s unlikely to be sufficient for a sustained breakout if Brent remains elevated. For Sterling bulls, Friday’s jobs report could provide the trigger — but whether the rally extends beyond the July high will depend far more on whether oil prices retreat again, which in turn requires credible progress toward renewed US-Iran negotiations rather than another round of conflicting political statements.

ActionForex’s Technical View on GBP/CAD The technical outlook reflects that balance between constructive momentum and lingering macro risks. GBP/CAD remains firmly within the rising channel from 1.8017, and this week’s rebound from the 55-day EMA, now around 1.8716, strengthens the case that the correction ended at 1.8709. A break above 1.9042 would open the way toward the 61.8% projection of 1.8299 to 1.9042 from 1.8709, at 1.9168, in the near term.

However, rejection by 1.9042 will set up another leg to extend the corrective pattern, with risk of a deeper fall through 1.8709. In that case, strong support should be seen from the rising channel floor, now at 1.8617, to bring a rebound.

Key Takeaways GBP/CAD’s rebound from the 55-day EMA suggests the pullback from 1.9042 was a correction, not a trend change, with a retest of the July high likely. Canada’s July jobs report (consensus: 15k job growth, 6.5% unemployment) carries elevated surprise risk given three large misses already this year. A weak jobs print could push GBP/CAD back toward 1.9042, but a sustained breakout depends more on oil, which has recovered above $86 after briefly easing from $100. The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved despite shifting rhetoric, keeping a geopolitical premium embedded in oil and a headwind on Sterling. 1.9042 is the key resistance; a break opens 1.9168, while rejection risks a deeper pullback toward 1.8709, with the rising channel floor at 1.8617 as the next support.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

The Euro (EUR) trades with caution at around Monday’s low of 1.1500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair is expected to remain volatile as investors await key United States (US) economic release this week to get meaningful cues regarding the interest rate outlook.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Monday’s gains at around 100.00.

Investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday. The impact of the US official employment data will be significant on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, as the central bank has suspended delivering so called “forward guidance” on interest rates from the June policy meeting.

Later in the day, the US JOLTS Job Openings data for June is scheduled to be published at 14:00 GMT. US employers are expected to have posted 7.45 million fresh jobs, slightly lower than 7.594 million in May.

On the Eurozone front, traders seem increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike interest rates in the September policy meeting. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have said in a report that the ECB September hike pricing is around 90%.

EUR/USD trades cautiously at around 1.1500 at press time. The pair holds a modest bullish near-term bias as price advances above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1451, suggesting underlying demand after reclaiming that short-term trend reference.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 59.1 stays below overbought territory yet leans higher, hinting that buying pressure remains constructive while not stretched.

On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the downward-sloping trend-line break level at 1.1555, which caps further gains and marks the next hurdle of 1.1600 for bulls; above that, the pair would extend its upside journey towards the May 29 high at 1.1686. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1451; a daily close back below this floor would weaken the current positive tone and expose the pair to the July 28 high at 1.1353.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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HomeTechnical AnalysisUSD/JPY –04.08.2026

The yen gave back some of its recent advance that was triggered by US and Japanese intervention.

As we see over the chart, we may see wide range of trading first between 155.00 and resistance 158.05 while market demanding farther rebound

As long as market kept trades below 160.85 the drop scenario may back

While bank of Japan starts the Intervention this time while the peak was around 163.97 which will sustain as resistance

If Yen back to retreat again Market may expect another Intervention

SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 155.00 158.05 LEVEL2 152.10-30 160.85 LEVEL3 145.00 163.80 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.

The US Dollar has managed to find a floor thanks to strong business activity data in the manufacturing sector and a resurgence of market interest in artificial intelligence. The S&P 500 has approached a record high, with the three-day increase in the market capitalisation of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ proving to be the largest in history. Along with the resurgence of the AI boom, the theme of American exceptionalism has also returned.

Markets continue to discuss Kevin Warsh’s reforms. The Fed Chair wants rising Treasury yields to tighten financial conditions and curb inflation. Investors see that the central bank is in no hurry to raise rates and are increasing the risk premiums on Treasuries. Yields are rising. The Fed’s passivity is weakening the US dollar.

However, other FOMC members may not support the restructuring initiated by Kevin Warsh. John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, noted that monetary policy is in the right place. But this is only because inflation is behaving as expected. If its behaviour changes, the central bank will be forced to make adjustments.

The uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s new approaches is affecting not only the dollar and Treasury yields, but also gold, which is closely linked to them. For the first time since February, the precious metal has closed the month in positive territory and is finding support in the de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Although Iran maintains that it is not in talks with the US, it has noted progress in its dialogue with Oman regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This reduces the risks of rising oil prices and accelerating inflation. If this is the case, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy should decrease.

Gold is finding support in Asia. Capital inflows into Chinese ETFs have now continued for the 14th consecutive day, as institutional investors snap up the precious metal as it approaches the psychologically significant level of $4,000 per ounce. Goldman Sachs believes that increased central bank buying of bullion is offsetting the negative impact of geopolitical tensions and rumours of a Fed rate hike. Citi forecasts that XAUUSD may stabilise at current levels or even fall. However, in the fourth quarter, gold is expected to return to the $4,500 mark.

Summary: Gold is consolidating near $4,000 as Fed uncertainty and strong Chinese demand provide support, with Citi forecasting a potential rally towards $4,500 later this year. 

It is rare that we see a Triple Top play out in the markets. I've always worked on the old adage that doubles hold, triples rarely do. However, in this instance, it has.

Obviously, BOJ intervention helped accelerate the move, but it didnt create it, The chart had already warned us it was coming.. Anyone who believes the BOJ doesn't employ Technical Chartists needs to think again. During my years at Nomura, liaising with the BOJ told a very different story. That's precisely why pattern recognition remains one of the most important disciplines in today's markets.

So, what now? Correction or Reversal?

The weekly charts still suggest this is a correction rather than a full-blown reversal. However, there is a major area of technical resistance that now has to be overcome.

23.6% Fibonacci retracement: 195.40.

Weekly Pivot: 196.44.

Previous congestion: 195.00–196.00.

This area needs to be reclaimed before the downside bias evident on the daily charts can be removed.

I would have expected the 200-day Moving Average to at least hold the first test, but price sliced straight through it without giving it a second thought. That tells me the move was driven more by panic and forced liquidation than orderly selling.

For me, 195.40 is the line in the sand.

The market needs to close above this level before Friday if it is to relieve the immediate downside pressure. Until then, I don't think traders should be chasing the downside, but equally I wouldn't be rushing to buy.

Whatever your view, one thing is clear from both the daily and weekly charts. The technical pattern was already in place before the BOJ intervened. The intervention accelerated the move, but it didn't create it. That's precisely why pattern recognition remains one of the most important disciplines in today's markets.

If you were already short before the intervention, congratulations. The panic simply accelerated the trade. But I would resist the temptation to chase prices lower at these levels. I'd rather wait and see whether the market can reclaim 195.40. A sustained move back above that level would remove much of the immediate downside pressure, although there would still be considerable work to do before I could confidently say CHF/JPY is out of the woods.

Finally, once the BOJ has intervened—even after the yen had weakened to levels not seen for decades—it plants a seed of uncertainty in every trader's mind. From now on, every sharp move in USD/JPY or CHF/JPY will carry the question:

"Will the BOJ step in again?"

Markets have a habit of pricing in bad news before the headlines arrive. The charts don't predict the news—they reflect the changing behaviour of market participants before most people recognise what's happening. That's why I've trusted price action for over four decades, and last week CHF/JPY has reminded us why.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes GBP/USD reversed after an overbought spike to 1.3506, closing lower at 1.3434. The strategist sees scope for the pullback to extend but mainly within a 1.3400–1.3475 range, with a sustained drop below 1.3400 unlikely. Over 1–3 weeks, strong momentum still suggests upside, though odds of a break above 1.3555 have diminished.

Overbought rally gives way to range"24-HOUR VIEW: While we indicated yesterday that the sharp rise in GBP from last Friday “has scope to extend,” we pointed out that “overbought conditions could limit any gains to a test of 1.3520.” We were also of the view that “the major resistance at 1.3555 is not expected to come into view.” However, after popping to a high of 1.3506 on the open, GBP pulled back to a low of 1.3418. GBP closed 0.35% lower at 1.3434. This time around, the pullback has scope to extend, but given that there has been no clear increase in downward momentum, any decline is likely part of a lower range of 1.3400/1.3475. In other words, a sustained drop below 1.3400 is unlikely."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: GBP rose sharply last week. Yesterday (03 Aug, spot at 1.3485), we indicated that “while strong momentum suggests further upside, it remains to be seen whether GBP can break and hold above the significant resistance at 1.3555.” We added, “to sustain the momentum, GBP must hold above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 1.3385.” While we continue to hold the same view, after the subsequent pullback, the odds of GBP rising to 1.3555 have diminished."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold – Chart Gold is trading around $4,057. After a prolonged period of consolidation, Gold is continuing to trade within a symmetrical triangle with long-term ascending trendline support and resistance that is forming with a down-sloping trendline. The price is currently caught between the 50-EMA at $4,059 and the 100-EMA at $4,067. This indicates that the price is highly likely to breakout in one direction or another.

Should the price break to the upside, the first resistance level is expected at $4,067, while the trendline resistance is found at $4,115. A break above this area would be an official breakout of the consolidation and target $4,148. Should the price break to the downside, bullish trendline support and demand zone convergence (the area where price has been bought the most) is located at $3,999. A break of this price would invalidate the bullish structure and target $3,969.

The RSI is currently at the 50 level indicating indecision is present in the market. With Gold being in a consolidation phase, the breakout from the current triangle is expected to have a strong influence on the overall market direction for the mid-term.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Pressures Triangle Resistance as Bulls Build Momentum

Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates its recovery on Tuesday, reaching session highs above $59.00 at the time of writing, after bouncing from the $56.50 area on Monday. Investors’ hopes of a negotiated end to Iran’s war are providing a mild appetite for risk, and buoying precious metals, although the US Dollar Index (USD) has picked up from lows, which might keep a lid on Silver’s rally.

US President Donald Trump affirmed on Monday that this is the “last chance” for Iran to sign a good peace deal with the United States, but Tehran has denied any talks with the US or plans to hold them. Meanwhile, sea traffic through the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Straits remains at very low levels, and reports of an attack on a cargo vessel off the coast of Oman complicate matters further. 

Technical Analysis: Silver appreciates within range

XAG/USD trades at $59.01, maintaining a mildly bullish near-term bias with momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart turning positive. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering near 58, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has crossed above the zero line, suggesting that buyers are taking control.

Price action, however, remains within the mid-ranges of the last four weeks' horizontal channel. Bulls are likely to meet significant resistance at the $59.30 area (July 29, 30 highs) and at the $60.75-$60.90 area (July 10, 22 highs) ahead of the key resistance at the July 6 high of 63.28

On the downside, immediate support is at the $56.50 area, which capped bears last week. A bearish reaction below that level would expose the key support at the mid-July lows of $54.77.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

TL;DR: With markets already convinced the RBA is done hiking, tomorrow’s New Zealand employment report matters less for whether the RBNZ turns more hawkish and more for whether the labor market stays resilient enough to keep its tightening bias intact — a dynamic already pressuring AUD/NZD lower.

Why the Focus Has Shifted Across the Tasman Markets have already reached a broad consensus that the Reserve Bank of Australia has finished tightening for this year. The focus is now shifting across the Tasman, where the Reserve Bank of New Zealand still appears to have work left to do. That makes tomorrow’s second-quarter employment report less about whether the RBNZ will turn more hawkish, and more about whether the labor market is resilient enough to keep its existing tightening bias intact.

Inflation Already Made the Case for More Tightening The case for further tightening was largely established by inflation. New Zealand’s second-quarter CPI rose 4.1% y/y, exceeding the RBNZ’s 3.9% forecast and reminding policymakers that price pressures remain more persistent than expected. More importantly, non-tradable inflation held at an elevated 3.4%, indicating domestic inflation — not just higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict — continues to pose a challenge.

Stronger business sentiment since then has only reinforced that picture, with July’s ANZ Business Confidence jumping to 56.1 from 36.6.

Why Tomorrow’s Data Doesn’t Need to Surprise Against that backdrop, tomorrow’s labor market data don’t need to surprise on the upside to support the policy outlook. Consensus forecasts call for:

Employment growth of 0.1% q/q. Unemployment edging up from 5.3% to 5.4%. The Labour Cost Index accelerating from 0.5% to 0.6% q/q. Those figures are broadly consistent with the RBNZ’s own projections, meaning an in-line report would leave the Bank’s economic assessment largely intact. Instead of weakening the tightening narrative, it would reinforce the view that policy still needs to move somewhat further into restrictive territory to contain domestic inflation and limit second-round effects from higher energy prices.

What Would Actually Move Markets The bigger market reaction would likely come from a stronger-than-expected report. Faster employment growth, firmer wage inflation, or a lower unemployment rate would strengthen the case for another hike as early as September, and increase expectations that the Official Cash Rate ultimately reaches the upper end of the 2.75%–3.00% range currently expected by many economists. Only a materially weaker labor market would cast meaningful doubt on that outlook, by suggesting higher borrowing costs are beginning to bite more sharply than anticipated.

Why This Matters for AUD/NZD Those shifting policy expectations have become important for AUD/NZD. Australia’s softer-than-expected second-quarter CPI has persuaded markets the RBA is likely to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% through year-end, effectively ending a period in which Australian rate expectations consistently outpaced those in New Zealand. With the RBA sidelined, investors are now watching whether the RBNZ can narrow the policy differential through further tightening, providing fundamental support for the New Zealand Dollar against its Australian counterpart.

ActionForex’s Technical View on AUD/NZD The technical picture complements the macro story. AUD/NZD’s decline from 1.2283 continues to look like a correction of the five-wave advance from 1.0649. As long as 1.2119 resistance caps rebounds, the bias remains lower. The next downside objective remains the 38.2% retracement at 1.1658, which sits just above the previous fourth-wave consolidation around 1.1412–1.1634.

Against a backdrop of narrowing policy differentials, tomorrow’s New Zealand labor market report has the potential to provide the catalyst for the next leg lower in AUD/NZD.

Key Takeaways New Zealand’s Q2 CPI beat the RBNZ’s own forecast at 4.1% y/y, with sticky non-tradable inflation at 3.4% keeping the tightening bias intact. Consensus expects tomorrow’s employment data to come in broadly in line with RBNZ projections, meaning an in-line print alone would reinforce, not weaken, the hawkish case. A stronger-than-expected report would raise September hike odds and support an Official Cash Rate move toward the top of the 2.75%-3.00% range. Australia’s softer CPI has convinced markets the RBA is done hiking, shifting the AUD/NZD policy narrative fully toward the RBNZ’s next move. AUD/NZD’s decline from 1.2283 remains capped below 1.2119 resistance, with 1.1658 the next downside objective if the labor data supports further RBNZ tightening.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

I am already riding a EURUSD sell entry. I posted the sell July 30 2026 on social media @AidanFX : “EURUSD Sold at 1.1531 Stop Loss at 1.1616 Target at 1.1361” and expecting a move lower.

EURUSD Daily Chart July 30 2026

A trader should always have multiple strategies all lined up before entering a trade. Never trade off one simple strategy. When multiple strategies all line up it allows a trader to see a clearer trade setup. We at EWF never say we are always right. No market service provider can forecast markets with 100% accuracy. Only thing we at EWF 100%, is that we are RIGHT more than we are WRONG.

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade.  Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on social media for updates and questions> @AidanFX

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Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 490.57 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 489.68 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,721.92 per tola from SAR 5,711.58 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

490.57

10 Grams

4,906.14

Tola

5,721.92

Troy Ounce

15,258.13

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 479.85 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 478.82 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold increased to AED 5,596.89 per tola from AED 5,584.90 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

479.85

10 Grams

4,798.51

Tola

5,596.89

Troy Ounce

14,924.97

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 534.47 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 533.86 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,233.89 per tola from MYR 6,226.81 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

534.47

10 Grams

5,344.69

Tola

6,233.89

Troy Ounce

16,623.71

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses during the Asian session on Tuesday as traders seem hesitant and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on the previous day's solid bounce from the lowest level since Mid-June and acts as a tailwind for the bullion. However, the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks helps limit the downside for the buck. Furthermore, recovering crude oil prices keep inflation risks and US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets on the table, capping the non-yielding yellow metal.

On Monday, Iran denied that any negotiations were taking place with the US, sparking an angry backlash from President Donald Trump, who had cited the resumption of bilateral talks as justification for calling off attacks over the weekend. Moreover, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly attacked a US military base in Kuwait with at least three drones. This, in turn, tempers hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran war, prompting traders to price in the geopolitical risk premium and supporting the safe-haven Greenback.

Meanwhile, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, Mohsen Rezaee, dismissed Trump's claims that the Strait of Hormuz is on course to reopen. Rezaee further warned that Iran will not permit any unauthorised shipping route through the critical waterway other than the one designated by the Islamic Republic and that Tehran would target US warships for that purpose. This comes on top of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels' naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and fuel concerns regarding global energy supplies, helping oil prices to recover a part of the previous day's losses.

Investors remain worried that elevated energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures and force the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently assigning over a 60% probability that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in September and see over an 85% chance of a hike by the end of this year. The bets were reaffirmed by the US ISM PMI released on Monday, which showed that US manufacturing sector activity increased to the highest level in more than four years in July. This further favors USD bulls.

Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The crucial data will be looked for more cues about the Fed's policy path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion is to the downside.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical Analysis: Gold bears not ready to give up yet; $4,000 holds the key within a familiar rangeFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair holds well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and keeps a bearish near-term bias within a familiar range held over the past month or so. Moreover, the range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent decline, reaffirming the negative outlook for the Gold price.

Meanwhile, momentum indicators are not yet supportive of a clear recovery. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory with a modestly positive histogram, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.48 hovers just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lacklustre buying interest. This, in turn, suggests that bounces are likely to be capped by overhead supply.

The top boundary of the trading range, pegged ahead of the $4,200 mark, might continue to act as an immediate hurdle. A move beyond could lift Gold to the 200-day SMA near $4,490.33. Bulls would need to reclaim a technically significant barrier to alleviate the prevailing downside bias and reopen the path toward higher highs.

On the downside, immediate support is inferred from recent swing lows around the $3,976–$4,000 region, where buyers previously emerged. A daily close below would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and turn the XAU/USD pair vulnerable to declining further in the absence of clearly defined floors under the said handle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades lower against its major currency peers on Tuesday after a rare juggernaut outperformance in the last few trading days. In the Asian session, the Japanese currency is down 0.25% to near 157.60 against the US Dollar (USD).

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.00%0.07%0.27%-0.01%-0.25%0.12%-0.02%EUR0.00%0.06%0.29%-0.02%-0.27%0.10%-0.01%GBP-0.07%-0.06%0.23%-0.07%-0.32%0.05%-0.07%JPY-0.27%-0.29%-0.23%-0.29%-0.53%-0.19%-0.18%CAD0.00%0.02%0.07%0.29%-0.24%0.11%0.00%AUD0.25%0.27%0.32%0.53%0.24%0.36%0.25%NZD-0.12%-0.10%-0.05%0.19%-0.11%-0.36%-0.10%CHF0.02%0.00%0.07%0.18%-0.00%-0.25%0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

The Asia-Pacific currency outperformed due to rare joint intervention by the United States (US) and Japan to support the Yen.

Japan and US step in as Yen hits weakest level since 1986BNY notes that Japan’s finance ministry and the US Treasury have moved to shore up the Yen, jointly intervening in the foreign exchange market after the currency fell to its lowest level against the Dollar since 1986. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the coordinated action was aimed at countering “excessive volatility and disorderly movements in recent months.” She underscored that Tokyo “would not hesitate to carry out further joint intervention if needed,” signaling that the authorities remain ready to defend the currency should renewed pressure emerge.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) holds onto its Monday’s recovery move, with investors awaiting key US economic data, notably the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), releasing this week. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades firmly near 100.00.

In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the JOLTS Job Openings data for June, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The US economy is expected to have posted 7.45 million fresh jobs, slightly lower than 7.594 million in May.

USD/JPY technical outlook

USD/JPY trades at around 157.58 at press time, retaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds well below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 161.14. The chart structure of the pair reflects a Head and Shoulders pattern in the making, whose right shoulder is yet to be formed, likely near 160.00, suggesting a respite is highly likely after a juggernaut fall.

The pair has retreated from recent highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 26.90 sits in oversold territory, which hints that downside momentum is stretched but does not yet show a clear reversal signal.

Going forward, a "Sell on Rise" strategy appears optimal in these conditions, and the round level of 160.00 would be a key barrier. After that, the pair might retest the neckline at around 155.10.

On the contrary, the pair would regain a bullish bias if it manages to extend the recovery above the July 16 low near 162.00. The pair would aim to revisit the multi-decade high at around 164.00 if it manages to break above 162.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.