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Gold and silver are tracing bullish breakout risks above their June-August consolidations as market optimism grows over a potential US-Iran deal. However, geopolitical risks continue to persist.

As silver breaks above $61 and gold reclaims $4,100, key developments to watch include:

The DXY maintaining its position above its 2026 uptrend and the 99.30 support level.  DXY analysis  Crude oil holding above $70. Crude oil analysis Inflation uncertainty related to the prolonged disruptions across the Middle East remaining a key concern. Should headlines continue to progress toward a sustainable resolution, market uptrends are expected to extend. However, any deterioration in negotiations could trigger significant downside risks as market sentiment quickly reverses.

To minimize headline noise, price action analysis helps clarify the technical scenarios ahead.

Gold Price Forecast: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a six-month perspective, gold is rebounding from one of the most significant technical confluence zones in decades.

The 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1920 to 2026. The long-term trendline connecting the major highs recorded between 2016 and 2025. What previously acted as resistance has now become one of the market's most important long-term support levels in 2026. The close of a six-month shooting star reversal pattern. However, given the significance of this support zone and the fragile nature of the US-Iran situation, a sustained break below this confluence and the 3,930 support level would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement between 3,500 and 3,460, an area that acted as major resistance throughout much of 2025.

Whether gold continues its rebound from this area or extends its correction will largely depend on:

Crude oil price direction. Crude Oil Outlook: What the 1973 Oil Embargo Tells Us About the 2026 Hormuz Crisis Developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve's policy outlook and US Treasury yields. US Dollar (DXY), USD/JPY Forecast: Key Levels to Watch Gold Price Forecast: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

In line with the strength of this higher-time-frame support zone, gold is tracing a bullish breakout above the June-August contracting consolidation, ranging between 3,930 and 4,200, and above the descending resistance guiding price action since March 2026.

Key support: 3,960-3,930

Gold Bullish Scenario

A sustained recovery above 4,140 and 4,200 would shift the short-term outlook back in favor of buyers.

That would expose the next resistance levels near the 23.6 – 27.2% retracement of the yearly decline:

4,340 4,400 A breakout above 4,400 would strengthen the case for a broader recovery across precious metals while increasing confidence that the longer-term uptrend has resumed.

Meanwhile, the daily RSI continues to push into bullish territory, suggesting accelerating momentum.

Gold Bearish Scenario

On the downside, a break below the 4,020-3,960-3,930 support zone would reactivate the bearish scenario.

The next downside objectives are:

3,880-3,840, corresponding to the October 2025 lows. 3,700. 3,500-3,460, the well-respected five-month resistance zone throughout 2025 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920-2026 advance. These longer-term support zones could provide another significant reversal opportunity.

As long as the US Dollar Index and crude oil remain firm, downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated.

Silver Price Forecast: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

The six-month chart highlights several important long-term technical developments.

A shooting star reversal candle. A hold near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1930 to 2026. Price action facing the multi-decade trendline connecting the highs recorded between 1980 and 2024, which may now transition from long-term resistance into major support should another breakdown in silver prices occur below $55.

This area also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance between $46 and $50.

The shorter-term outlook suggests signs of bullish recovery, which becomes clearer on the daily chart below.

Silver Price Forecast: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a daily perspective, silver is attempting to stabilize above the descending trendline connecting the lower highs formed since May 2026, while also holding above the June-August consolidation and the $61 resistance level.

At the same time, momentum indicators continue pointing higher, remaining above the neutral 50 level and supporting the short-term bullish outlook.

A breakout above $61 exposes $63.80, $68, and $72. A break below $55.50 would expose the longer-term support zone between $50 and $46. Long-Term Outlook

A confirmed breakout above $72 would significantly strengthen confidence that a broader bullish reversal is underway, reopening the path toward triple-digit silver prices over the longer term.

Key Takeaway

The US Dollar Index (DXY) will remain one of the primary benchmarks for both the foreign exchange and precious metals markets as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve expectations continue to evolve.

The 101.80-102.00 resistance zone remains the key level to watch for upside risks in the dollar and downside risks across currencies and precious metals. The 99.30 support zone remains the key level to watch for downside risks in the dollar and upside risks across currencies and precious metals. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

The USD/CHF pair reverses a modest intraday dip and touches a fresh daily high during the early European session on Wednesday, though it remains below the 0.8100 mark. The US Dollar (USD) sticks to its negative bias amid hopes for a US-Iran deal and receding Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations, which is seen acting as a headwind for the USD/CHF pair.

Traders, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive bearish bets on the USD and await the release of the US monthly jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday – for more cues about the Fed's policy path. This, along with further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, will drive the buck and provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CHF pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices hold above the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the recent pullback from the year-to-date high – levels above the 0.8200 mark set in July. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally positive around the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 hints at modest, rather than decisive, bullish momentum.

This suggests that upside attempts are still constrained by the nearby cluster of overhead resistance near the 0.8100 confluence – comprising the 100-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 38.2% Fibo. level. Further barriers emerge at the 50.0% level at 0.8121 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.8141, before stronger resistance at 0.8169 and the swing high zone near 0.8205.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 23.6% retracement at 0.8077, with a break exposing the cycle low region around 0.8037 as the next bearish target.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/CHF 1-hour chart

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.04%-0.09%0.02%0.06%0.00%0.47%0.06%EUR0.04%-0.04%0.07%0.10%0.05%0.50%0.09%GBP0.09%0.04%0.11%0.14%0.07%0.55%0.14%JPY-0.02%-0.07%-0.11%0.05%-0.00%0.45%0.04%CAD-0.06%-0.10%-0.14%-0.05%-0.05%0.42%-0.01%AUD-0.01%-0.05%-0.07%0.00%0.05%0.46%0.05%NZD-0.47%-0.50%-0.55%-0.45%-0.42%-0.46%-0.39%CHF-0.06%-0.09%-0.14%-0.04%0.01%-0.05%0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the previous day's modest gains and attracts strong follow-through buying for the second straight day on Wednesday. The positive momentum lifts the white metal to the $62.00 neighborhood – the highest level since July 7 – during the early European session.

An intraday breakout through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour and a two-week-old trading range hurdle near the $60.00 psychological mark were seen as key triggers for the XAG/USD bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 73.53 signals overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, suggesting that the upside momentum remains strong.

Hence, any subsequent move up beyond the $62.00 mark is likely to confront a hurdle near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July decline at $62.92. A sustained break there would expose higher Fibo. barriers at $67.98 and $72.08. On the flip side, initial support is pegged near the 200-period SMA at $59.04, ahead of the Fibonacci anchor near $54.73, where buyers could re-emerge on a more pronounced pullback.

Nevertheless, the constructive technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside as the latest optimism over a potential US-Iran deal continues to undermine the US Dollar (USD). Hence, any corrective slide could be bought into and remain cushioned amid receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which tend to benefit non-yielding commodities, including Silver.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

XAG/USD 4-hour chart

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Key Points:Markets are focused on Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for fresh Fed policy clues.ADP employment, jobless claims, and labor market data will shape September rate expectations.Softer U.S. economic data has reduced expectations for additional Fed tightening.EUR/USD watches eurozone data as traders assess the ECB's policy outlook.GBP/USD remains supported ahead of key UK labor and growth data while DXY tests major technical support.

US Dollar News: NFP Forecasts and Fed Outlook Drive FX Markets Changes in Federal Reserve policy are the primary drivers of U.S. Dollar trading as market participants analyze upcoming U.S. Labor market data in advance of the July non-Farm Payrolls. This week’s data points include the release of the ADP private sector employment report on Wednesday, the weekly jobless claims report due out on Thursday, and the Friday release of the Payrolls report.

Current estimates suggest the U.S. economy added approximately 95,000 jobs in July, down from 121,000 in June, and the unemployment rate is likely to increase to 4.4% from 4.3%. Earlier this week the job openings data from the JOLTS report for June fell and added evidence that Labor market demand is cooling. Given the recent softer data and lower oil prices, the futures market pegged the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September at 59% down from the 67% probability earlier this week.

The Euro is benefitting from waning concerns regarding imported inflation in the Eurozone after a dip in energy prices. Market focus is still on the ECB’s decision to leave the deposit rate at 2.25% last month, but market participants are looking to the German release of Industrial Production and Eurozone Retail Sales data for indications on the possible stabilization of the economy. ECB officials stress a meeting by meeting focus as inflation nears the 2% target with the possible re-ignition of price inflation from geopolitical concerns. Economic data of a Eurozone negative growth signal would also support the case for a rate pause.

Sterling is drawing support from falling energy prices after a recent positive engagement between the United States, Iran, and Qatar, which has eased concern about protracted supply disruptions across the Middle East. With the Bank of England having decided on leaving the Bank Rate at 3.75% last week, the focus has now turned to the upcoming UK labour market and growth data.

Investors are watching the UK data to see if inflation is trending down without a substantial negative effect on activity, while the general sentiment in the markets is being influenced by the US Payroll data due on Friday and the changing outlook on US Federal Reserve policy.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Bears Eye Trendline Breakdown Below 99.95 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 99.84, below the 50-day EMA at 100.41, and supports the long-term ascending trendline at 99.42. The Index has recently attempted to recover the 100.27-100.53 Fibonacci resistance zone. This suggests that price action remains in a downtrend.

The 100-day EMA is located at 99.92, and has offered support. A daily close below the 99.42 long-term trendline support suggests stronger price action to the downside, with 98.76 and 97.95 as potential price targets. Bullish price action would require price action to close above 100.27. Further price targets would then be 100.80 and 101.17.

The RSI is presently at 37 and suggests that price action on the DXY is in a downtrend. Until the Index closes above 100.27, the RSI suggests that price action will continue to favor the downside.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls Retain Control Above Key Fibonacci Support

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview After a strong bounce from the 1.3274 swing low, GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.3456. The bullish structure is further strengthened by the GBP/USD pair trading above the 50-EMA and 100-EMA, which are presently at 1.3409 and 1.3392, respectively.

Currently, price action is maintaining a bullish structure as it is above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3452. Price action above there opens the possibility of a move higher toward 1.3506, with a break above opening up 1.3559. Price action below there opens the possibility of a move toward 1.3418, then 1.3390, and finally 1.3363. Losing any of these levels would be a negative development for the current bullish structure.

RSI is near 58, indicating positive momentum without overbought conditions. While the pair may consolidate after its recent rally, holding above 1.3418 keeps the broader bias tilted to the upside.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bullish Recovery Faces Major Trendline Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1534, from where a significant bullish momentum pushed price to the 50 day MA, and now it is trading in a portion of the resistance zone at 1.1510-1.1559. Currently, price is also testing the lower boundary of the descending trendline from early 2026.

1.1559 will be the next level of resistance, and after that 1.1622 and 1.1668 will be next. Bulls will eventually need to overcome the trendline to confirm a bullish reversal, which would then create a path to the 1.1703 level. The lower boundary of the resistance zone is at 1.1510, followed by 1.1474 and then the strong level of support at 1.1439.

The bullish momentum has been confirmed by the RSI, which has recently broken above 60. As long as the price is trading above.

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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

BoJ stance and domestic dynamicsThe BoJ maintained its policy rate at 1.00% via an 8-1 vote during its Jul 31 meeting while upgrading its economic outlook. The central bank signaled its intention to continue rate hikes, warning that core inflation might overshoot its 2% target in the near term. Nevertheless, the broader economic outlook remains bright, underpinned by solid labor market dynamics and robust wage growth.

The BoJ projects 2026 real GDP growth at 0.6%. Meanwhile, officials revised headline inflation forecasts downward from 2.8% to 2.5%, largely reflecting the impact of government subsidies. Currently, inflation figures show signs of re-acceleration as energy price declines moderate and select subsidies expire, aligning inflation metrics more closely with underlying market realities. Consequently, the BoJ retains sufficient momentum to proceed with policy normalization, driving interest rates back into positive territory over the long term to maintain price stability and permanently extricate the economy from protracted deflation.

However, financial markets recently perceived the BoJ’s pace of two rate hikes per year as overly gradual, insufficient to curb cost-push inflationary pressures in a timely manner. This skepticism is visibly reflected in the bond market, where the 30-year JGB yield surged to around 4%, hitting a 30-year high. This repricing underscores market anxieties that inflation might spike abruptly rather than stabilizing near the BoJ’s target. This dynamic stands as a primary catalyst pushing the US dollar - yen pair upward toward historical lows for the yen. Despite three direct market interventions by the Ministry of Finance this year, yen rapidly resumed its downward trajectory following each episode.

US macro environment and yield differentialsOn the counter side, US dollar strength has acted as a major tailwind for the pair’s upside. The US-Japan 30-year sovereign yield spread widened sharply back to 2.83% by late July, driven by lingering market expectations of further Fed rate hikes this year, even after the Fed held the target rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% at its latest meeting.

Although US CPI moderated to 3.5% YoY in June, re-escalating Middle Eastern tensions spillovers into the Red Sea added another layer of supply-side pressure on global oil markets. Disruptions threaten key transit routes, including pipeline shipments of approximately 7 mln barrels per day from Saudi Arabia through the Red Sea. Consequently, crude oil prices remain elevated around 90 USD/bbl, compared to over 60 USD/bbl prior to the conflict and 70 USD/bbl following the June US-Iran ceasefire agreement.

The oil price variable poses a significant latent risk for an inflation rebound. Combined with resilient US consumer spending, inflationary pressures might prove structurally sticky. Although 2Q US GDP growth missed expectations at 1.5% YoY, a granular breakdown reveals robust personal consumption growth at 3.2% YoY, complemented by aggressive capital expenditure driven by AI infrastructure demand. Earnings guidance from Big Tech points to sustained, heavy capital allocation toward AI and cloud infrastructure through this year and next, positioning business investment as a primary GDP growth engine.

Accordingly, despite the Fed holding rates steady in July, the US 30-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2007. This suggests the market remains deeply concerned about persistent US inflation, viewing the Fed's current stance and communication as insufficiently hawkish, thereby pricing in a higher likelihood of stricter monetary tightening ahead.

Market drivers and outlookIn summary, JPY faces dual-directional pressure:US dynamics: Hawkish market expectations regarding Fed monetary policy.BoJ dynamics: Perceived policy inertia by the BoJ, triggering market disappointment and JPY depreciation.These combined forces continue to widen Treasury-JGB yield spreads, fueling Yen carry trades and driving further JPY depreciation.

A pullback in US Dollar - Yen would require a pivot in either force. For instance, a softer-than-expected upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report might dial back US inflation expectations, weighing on the US dollar and offering relief to the yen. Conversely, increasingly hawkish communications from BoJ officials advocating for earlier rate hikes would provide structural support for the yen from the domestic side.

Technical analysisUSDJPY retested its ascending trendline and key support at 158.50 before staging a rebound, exhibiting mean-reversion behavior following a sharp sell-off. EMA contraction points to a temporary consolidation phase within the 158.50 – 160.70 range.

Bullish scenario: A decisive breakout above resistance at 160.70 might confirm trend continuation toward the next key resistance barrier at 163.60.

Bearish scenario: A failure to hold above 158.50 would risk breaking the long-term uptrend, exposing the pair to a deeper retracement toward secondary support around 156.50.

This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook.

Highlights of the week: US services PMI and job report, Canadian unemploymentWednesdayUS Services PMI at 14:00 GMT where the consensus is for an increase from 54 points to 54.5. This might be rather bullish news for the Dollar since it would mean that the services sector in the States is still expanding given that the actual figure will also be above the 50 point mark.

ThursdayAustralian Balance of trade at 13:30 GMT where the expectations are for an increase reaching A$1.1 billion in trade deficit. This might not have a significant effect on the Aussie Dollar since the data are for the month of June and might already have been priced in.

FridayChinese Balance of trade at 03:00 AM GMT where the figure for July is expected to decrease from $125.62 Billion to $108 Billion. If this is broadly accurate then it might create some losses for the currency in the immediate aftermath of the release.

Canadian unemployment rate at 12:30 GMT. The market is expecting the figure to remain stable at 6.5% for July. However, any significant deviation from the expected figure will most likely create volatility on all loonie pairs.

US Job report at 12:30 GMT where the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate are going to be published. The expectation for the NFP is for a slight increase to reach 83,000 against the previous recording of 57,000. If these expectations are correct, the dollar could move up in various pairs in the aftermath of the release. On the other hand, the unemployment rate is expected to increase from 4.2% to 4.3%.

USOil, daily

Oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump said new talks with Iran would begin following his decision to cancel a planned military strike, easing concerns over further escalation in the Middle East. The decline reflected reduced geopolitical risk, although prices are unlikely to remain lower without an agreement that restores normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets remain cautious after a reported explosion near a tanker off Oman highlighted ongoing risks to maritime trade. Meanwhile, OPEC+ approved another modest production increase, while Gulf producers continued seeking alternative export routes to reduce reliance on vulnerable shipping lanes.

From a technical perspective, crude oil has come under renewed selling pressure after failing to sustain its rally above $90, with price retreating toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $79.30, which is acting as immediate support. The decline has pushed price back around the 50-day SMA, while it remains below the 100-day SMA, keeping the broader outlook tilted to the downside. The Stochastic oscillator has fallen into oversold territory, suggesting bearish momentum may be fading and increasing the likelihood of a short-term rebound. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands have started to narrow after the recent surge in volatility, indicating that price swings may begin to moderate. A sustained break below $79.30 could expose the 61.8% Fibonacci support at $76.60, while a recovery above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $82 would improve the near-term technical outlook.

Gold-Dollar, daily

Gold edged higher after US President Donald Trump announced fresh talks with Iran, boosting hopes for a diplomatic resolution that could ease energy-driven inflation pressures. The precious metal also found support following last week's Federal Reserve meeting, although rising bond yields and expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer continued to limit gains. Investors remain focused on developments in the Middle East and the Fed's policy outlook, with analysts expecting geopolitical progress to be the key driver of gold's next move.

From a technical point of view, gold continues to trade below both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, keeping the broader trend tilted to the downside. However, price action has stabilised over the past few weeks, with gold consolidating between the $4,000 support and $4,200 resistance levels. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed, reflecting lower volatility and hinting that a breakout may be approaching. Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator is moving around the midpoint, indicating balanced momentum and the absence of a clear directional bias. A decisive break above $4,200 could pave the way for a recovery toward the 100-day SMA, while a drop below $4,000 would likely reinforce the prevailing bearish trend.

The Euro (EUR) trades marginally higher at around 1.1536 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair edges up as the US Dollar ticks lower ahead of the United States (US) ADP Employment Change data for July, which will be published at 12:15 GMT.

According to estimates, US private employers hired 70K fresh workers, lower than 98K in June.

The impact of the US private sector employment data will be significant on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations as officials have stopped providing so-called “forward guidance”.

Meanwhile, the Euro is expected to trade strongly amid firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike interest rates.

Markets hold firm on September ECB hike expectationsAccording to TD Securities, market pricing remains aligned with its policy outlook, with investors "continue to fully price a 25bp ECB rate hike in September, which remains our base case." The bank sees no material shift yet in expectations around the upcoming meeting, underscoring the persistence of a hawkish bias in Eurozone rate markets.

While remarks from ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher, released last week, showed that he remained data-dependent for the monetary policy outlook. However, Kocher has made clear that the central bank is committed to bringing inflation down to the 2% target on a sustainable basis.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades at around 1.1537, holding above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1461, keeping the near-term bias constructive.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 62 suggests positive momentum but is not yet in overbought territory, hinting that buyers retain control as long as price stays above the short-term EMA.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the downward resistance trend line break price at 1.1544, and a clear daily close above this barrier would strengthen the bullish outlook. On the downside, the 20-period EMA at 1.1461 offers initial support, and a drop back below this moving average would signal fading bullish pressure and expose the pair to the July 28 low at 1.1353.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Kocher flags data-dependent autumn decisions as geopolitical risks cloud Euro outlookKocher’s 5.6/10 score on FXS Speechtracker falls below the historic 6.3/10 average, pointing to a slightly less forceful tone than usual. The emphasis on how quickly geopolitical developments can alter energy prices and the inflation outlook underscores lingering upside risks to Euro area prices, which leans modestly hawkish despite the softer score.

The pledge that the ECB Governing Council will decide in autumn based on incoming data to bring Euro area inflation back to 2% on a sustainable basis reinforces a data-dependent but still anti-inflation stance. For the Euro, the combination of acknowledged inflation risks and conditional commitment to the 2% target suggests limited immediate policy aggression, but keeps the door open to renewed tightening rhetoric if energy-driven price pressures re-intensify into autumn.

Gold prices rose in Philippines on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 8,079.31 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,967.06 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to PHP 94,235.52 per tola from PHP 92,926.20 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PHP

1 Gram

8,079.31

10 Grams

80,793.02

Tola

94,235.52

Troy Ounce

251,298.20

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The USD/JPY pair drifts lower during the Asian session on Wednesday and, for now, seems to have stalled this week's goodish recovery from the 155.25-155.20 region, or the lowest since May. Spot prices, however, rebound from the daily low and currently trade just above mid-157.00s, down less than 0.10% for the day.

Japan's real wages grew for the sixth straight month in June, which, along with hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) Minutes, provides a modest lift to the Japanese Yen (JPY). Meanwhile, oil prices languish near a multi-week low amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal, easing inflation fears and tempering US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets. This, in turn, weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and exerts some pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

However, concerns about Japan's worsening fiscal condition and the wide US-Japan rate differential hold back JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Furthermore, traders are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in 2026, which limits USD losses and lends some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due on Friday.

From a technical perspective, spot prices keep the near-term bias slightly bearish while below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the neutral 50 line, and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below zero with a flat histogram, hinting at fading upside momentum rather than an outright trend acceleration.

The 50-period EMA on the 4-hour chart at 157.80 might continue to act as an immediate hurdle, while the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the intervention-led downfall, at 158.53, forms the next barrier. This is followed by 159.56 at the 50% retracement and 160.59 at the 61.8% level. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. level at 157.25, and a break below this would expose the more distant structural base around the 155.19 cycle low.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-1.25%-1.19%-3.67%-0.22%-1.01%-1.43%-1.23%EUR1.25%0.07%-2.55%1.02%0.30%-0.18%0.02%GBP1.19%-0.07%-2.59%0.98%0.24%-0.27%-0.04%JPY3.67%2.55%2.59%3.68%2.88%2.00%2.54%CAD0.22%-1.02%-0.98%-3.68%-0.77%-1.61%-1.11%AUD1.01%-0.30%-0.24%-2.88%0.77%-0.48%-0.29%NZD1.43%0.18%0.27%-2.00%1.61%0.48%0.20%CHF1.23%-0.02%0.04%-2.54%1.11%0.29%-0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 36,941.59 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 36,426.64 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to PKR 430,890.30 per tola from PKR 424,873.20 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PKR

1 Gram

36,941.59

10 Grams

369,424.30

Tola

430,890.30

Troy Ounce

1,149,020.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 12,635.95 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,450.08 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to INR 147,364.90 per tola from INR 145,215.30 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

12,635.95

10 Grams

126,341.00

Tola

147,364.90

Troy Ounce

393,019.80

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 181.70 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) as traders remain on alerts for further intervention from Japanese authorities following the coordinated intervention between the United States (US) and Japan.

Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran talks. Axios reported that the US, Iran, and Oman are closing in on an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington aiming for a Wednesday announcement.

The source added that the agreement under discussion sets up a 60-day temporary arrangement between Oman and Iran in the critical waterway. Fresh optimism over the Middle East could improve risk sentiment and provide some support to the riskier asset, such as the EUR against the JPY.

Yen outlook seen hinging on growth rather than faster BoJ hikesSociete Generale argues that the policy rate path alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery in the Yen. Analysts there stress that “more, or faster BoJ rate hikes won’t solve the problem either, unless the Japanese growth outlook makes them appear realistic,” underscoring their view that a credible improvement in Japan’s growth prospects is a prerequisite for any meaningful policy tightening to support the currency.

Technical Analysis: Negative outlook of EUR/JPY remains intactIn the daily chart, EUR/JPY keeps a bearish near-term tone as spot holds below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) from the Bollinger Bands and the 100-day SMA, which now act as a tight resistance cluster overhead. Price is sliding toward the lower Bollinger Band while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 34.77 stays close to oversold territory, hinting that downside pressure persists but may be approaching a fatigue zone.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the Bollinger mid-line/20-day SMA near 184.90, followed by the 100-day SMA at 185.10. A decisive daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current downside bias, with the upper Bollinger Band up at 188.65 as a more distant barrier. 

On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band around 181.15 offers the first notable support, and a clear break beneath it would expose the February 12 low of 180.81, en route to the 180.00 psychological level. 

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Gold is building on its recovery from near the $4,020 region in Wednesday’s Asian trades, advancing beyond the $4,100 round level.

Gold capitalizes on US-Iran peace deal hopesGold buyers are extending their control amid further weakness in Oil prices, which continue to ease inflationary concerns and weigh on US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets and thus, the US Dollar (USD).

WTI – the US oil benchmark – resumes its previous downside and hits three-week lows near $73.50, following an Axios report, citing two regional sources and a US official stating that “the US, Iran and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. aiming for a Wednesday announcement.”

This headline added to the market optimism induced by the recent claims from senior US officials that progress was made on negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even though Iran rejected those claims late on Tuesday.

Analysts at ING note that “lower energy prices have eased some inflation concerns, offering a more supportive backdrop for bullion.” However, they add that this support is being tempered as “markets continue to assess the outlook for US monetary policy following last week's Federal Reserve meeting,” leaving “gold… likely to remain caught between improving geopolitical sentiment and ongoing uncertainty over US interest rates.”

With risk flows in full steam and US jobs data weakening, the Greenback remains under bearish pressure, allowing Gold to see a decisive break higher.

However, it remains to be seen whether the Hormuz reopening deal actually lasts and whether the US ADP Employment Change data surprises to the upside. These factors could impede Gold’s upward trajectory.

The US ADP Employment Change is foreseen at 70K in July, down from 98K reported in June.

Currently, markets are pricing in a 55% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, down from about 65% a day ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Gold traders seem to ignore recent hawkish commentary from Fed policymakers.

Fed’s Schmid delivered a slightly more hawkish-than-usual message early Wednesday, with a 7.3/10 FXS Speechtracker score relative to the historical average of 7/10, stressing that current policy is “not tight” and that tighter monetary policy is needed to return inflation to 2%. The emphasis on AI-related investment as a fresh inflation driver, the warning that recent disinflation is too tentative to confirm an easing trend, and the view that inflation remains “too high” and “worrisome” all reinforce a bias toward additional restraint, even if some pressures stem from supply shocks. Overall, the tone supports a firmer Dollar as markets reassess the likelihood and timing of future rate cuts.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.96 points to 145.80, signaling a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness following the speech. However, with the FXS Fed Sentiment Index still far above the neutral 100 mark, the policy backdrop remains firmly hawkish despite the slight softening, consistent with Schmid’s call for tighter conditions to secure the inflation target.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,129.18. The metal holds above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,063, but remains capped by the 50-day SMA at $4,160, keeping the broader picture tilted to the downside while allowing for near-term recovery attempts. The 100-day and 200-day SMAs, clustered well above price near $4,398 and $4,491 respectively, reinforce the notion of a market still trading below its primary trend gauges. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.8 has turned marginally positive, hinting that selling pressure is easing, yet it does not offset the weight of the overhead moving averages.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 50-day SMA around $4,160, where a sustained break would be needed to extend the rebound toward the 100-day SMA at $4,398 and then the 200-day SMA near $4,491. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 21-day SMA at $4,063, with a break there exposing the rising trend-line support drawn from prior lows, now coming in around $3,951.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Aug 05, 2026 12:15

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 70K

Previous: 98K

Source: ADP Research Institute

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Follow up - Kiwi dips as jobless rate climbs ahead of RBNZ's September decisionGold climbs for third day as Hormuz deal hopes ease inflation fears, holds above $4,100US, Iran and Oman near interim deal to reopen Strait of HormuzChina Rating Dog PMI (July 2026) 50.4 (expected 53.7)More - BOJ minutes show board debated mounting price risks despite June hikeUS officials reviewing an air-traffic safety incident involving a military helicopter carrying TrumpNZ commodity prices post biggest monthly fall since 2022 on dairy slidePBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7889 (vs. estimate at 6.7480)Japan services PMI: Growth slows in July as selling prices near record highRate hike watch - Fed's Schmid says tighter policy needed as inflation stays too highSituational Awareness backers included Silicon Valley elite before AI bets souredBank of Japan June meeting minutes: 7-1 vote to raise rate to 1.0% amid inflation riskIran rejects US claim of open southern route through Strait of HormuzJapan real wages rise for sixth straight month, supporting BoJ rate hike (eventually) caseAustralia services PMI hits six-month high of 53.6 as new orders returnNew Zealand unemployment rate jumps to 5.6% vs. 5.4% expected and 5.3% priorICYMI - Bank of Korea to resume gold buying after 13 years, not large buying.Israeli official says Trump wants Iran deal 'at any cost', report saysUS Treasury Secretary Bessent waffling on about the yen and BoJOil update: Iran and Oman said to have agreed broad outlines of strait reopening dealOil recap - Oil settles around 5% lower as Iran talks raise hopes on Hormuz reopeningOil: Private inventory survey shows a headline crude oil build vs draw expectedStocks surge to records as Wall Street scrambles to explain the rally after the factS&P and NASDAQ indices close at new record levelsAMD beats on Q2 earnings and revenue, guides Q3 above estimatesSpaceX posts $7.8bn revenue in debut earnings, beats estimates on Starlink growthBooking Holdings shares jump after hours as Americans continue to travelKey points:

Iran and Oman reported near agreement on Hormuz reopening mechanics, with Iran managing inbound traffic and Oman outbound plus a service fee, before later reports said no deal had been finalised yetIran also weighing a voluntary fund to charge European states for strait upkeepSenior Israeli official said Trump wants an Iran deal at any cost, per Al ArabiyaSaudi Arabia reportedly struck Yemen's capital SanaaAxios later reported the US, Iran and Oman are nearing an interim deal targeting a Wednesday announcement, with a 60-day arrangement giving Iran greater control over strait traffic than before the war and no tolls initiallyTrump told Fox News talks with Iran are going well and the strait will open soon, adding the "heavy blow" has not yet comeOil eased and gold surged back above $4,130 as diminishing energy price risk trimmed inflation and Fed rate hike expectationsNZD fell as New Zealand's unemployment rate hit an 11 year high, even as other details of the report were less downbeatANZ's NZ World Commodity Price Index fell 3.9% in July, its largest monthly drop since November 2022, though still up 0.5% on the yearYen strengthened after a garbled Bessent message on the BoJ via NHK capped USD/JPY, alongside data showing Japan real wages rose for a sixth straight month and BoJ minutes supportive of further hikesChina's RatingDog services PMI slumped to 50.4 in July from 54.1, well below the 53.7 expected, the weakest reading since September 2024Kansas City Fed's Schmid said tighter policy is needed as inflation remains too high, and that AI investment is adding to price pressuresThe PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at a fresh 41 month high for the yuanSpaceX posted Q2 revenue of $7.8bn, up 92% year on year and above estimates, in its first results since June's IPO, with the AI segment loss narrower than forecastAMD beat on Q2 EPS and revenue and guided Q3 revenue above consensusDetail:

Diplomatic developments around the Strait of Hormuz dominated the session, with the narrative refining as the day progressed. Early reports suggested Iran and Oman had largely agreed on the mechanics of reopening the strait, with Iran set to manage inbound traffic and Oman handling outbound shipping alongside a proposed service fee, though later reports cautioned that a final agreement had not yet been reached. Iran was also said to be weighing a voluntary fund that would see European states contribute toward the cost of maintaining the strait. Adding a political dimension, a senior Israeli official told N12, as reported by Al Arabiya, that President Trump wants a deal with Iran at any cost, describing the gap between peace and war under the current administration as narrow as the distance between letters on a keyboard. Separately, Saudi Arabia was reported to have struck Yemen's capital, Sanaa, a reminder that regional tensions remain far from fully resolved even as the Hormuz diplomacy advances.

The picture firmed up later in the session when Axios reported the US, Iran and Oman are nearing an interim deal to reopen the strait, targeting a Wednesday announcement that would restore the US-Iran ceasefire and pave the way for resumed nuclear talks. Under the reported terms, Trump has paused planned military strikes to allow diplomacy to continue, and the 60 day arrangement would grant Iran greater control over strait traffic than it held before the war began, with no tolls charged during the initial period. Trump himself later struck an optimistic tone in comments to Fox News, saying discussions with Iran are going very well and that the strait will open very soon, while noting that the "heavy blow" has not yet come and expressing hope it would not be needed.

The shifting but broadly positive tone on Hormuz weighed on oil, which eased modestly, while gold surged back above $4,130 an ounce as the diminishing risk of higher energy prices trimmed inflation expectations and, with them, the perceived odds of further Federal Reserve tightening. The move underscores how closely gold has been tracking the ebb and flow of the diplomatic process this week, even as central bank buying and Asian ETF inflows continue to provide a structural floor beneath prices.

Currency markets saw their own share of volatility. The New Zealand dollar fell after data showed the unemployment rate climbing to an 11 year high, even though other details within the report, including a modest beat on employment growth, were less discouraging. Separate data from ANZ showed New Zealand's World Commodity Price Index fell 3.9% in July, the largest monthly drop since November 2022, though the index remains up 0.5% on the year. The yen, meanwhile, found support from a somewhat garbled Bessent message on the currency and the Bank of Japan via an NHK report, which was nonetheless enough to cap USD/JPY during the morning session. Additional support came from data showing Japanese real wages rose for a sixth consecutive month, along with Bank of Japan June meeting minutes that showed policymakers debating mounting price risks even as they delivered the June hike, reinforcing the sense that the pendulum is swinging toward a further rate increase in September.

China provided a more downbeat data point, with the RatingDog China Services PMI falling sharply to 50.4 in July from 54.1 in June, well below the 53.7 expected and the weakest reading since September 2024, pointing to a notable slowdown in domestic demand.

On the central bank front, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid reiterated his hawkish stance, saying tighter monetary policy is needed to bring inflation, which he described as too high, back to the 2% target, and adding that artificial intelligence related investment is also contributing to price pressures. Separately, the People's Bank of China set its daily USD/CNY reference rate at a fresh 41 month high for the yuan.

In earnings news, SpaceX delivered a strong debut as a public company, with second quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year on year and comfortably ahead of the $6.81 billion estimate, while its AI segment posted a narrower than expected operating loss of $1.26 billion against a forecast $2.39 billion loss, and adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion. AMD also topped expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.66 versus $1.62 expected and revenue of $11.54 billion beating the $11.31 billion forecast, while holding its operating margin at 27.0% and guiding third quarter revenue to a range of $12.70 billion to $13.30 billion, above the $12.51 billion consensus.

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7889 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7917 and 6.7480 Reuters estimate.

PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.

The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.

Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.

Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

BOJ misses chance to back stronger yen Weak JGB demand reinforces higher yield pressure Intervention changes little beneath the surface 200DMA becomes pivotal for USD/JPY The macro backdrop hasn't changed Despite all the headlines, speculation and the artificial move lower in yen pairs over the past week following the first coordinated intervention between the US and Japan in decades, the truth is that the fundamental backdrop that drove USD/JPY and other yen crosses higher has barely changed. That leaves me thinking it's only a matter of when, not if, USD/JPY and other yen crosses resume the gradual grind higher that was underway before the intervention episode.

Japan's policy problem It's hardly a revolutionary view, but Japan continues to run some of the loosest monetary policy settings in the developed world. Interest rates remain well below those elsewhere, real rates are still negative and the Bank of Japan passed up what looked like the perfect opportunity last week to send a shot across the bows that it was serious about continuing to normalise policy, instead producing another muddled and cautious performance even though markets have more than one full hike priced into the OIS curve by December.

Why not just get on with it? Inflation has been above target for years and the yen has been weakening for even longer. Yet instead of tackling one of the underlying drivers through faster policy normalisation, Japanese authorities, backed by the United States, opted to intervene in the FX market instead.

Fiscal policy isn't helping the yen's cause either. While Japan isn't running the most expansionary fiscal settings relative to other developed economies, it's the starting point that matters. Government debt is already enormous, leaving the country far more vulnerable than most if an external shock were to emerge. That's one reason investors continue demanding higher yields to own Japanese government debt.

Yesterday's weak 10-year JGB auction reinforced that message. Demand softened noticeably, with the bid-to-cover ratio slipping to 2.56 from 3.13 at the previous sale, while the auction tail blew out to its widest since August 2024, signalling investors demanded greater compensation to absorb the debt ahead of Thursday's 30-year auction.

Then there's the buoyancy of global markets. Risk appetite continues to rip higher, encouraging investors to borrow in one of the world's cheapest funding currencies and invest elsewhere. That's carry trade 101. As long as Japan continues to offer ultra-low interest rates, volatility suppressed while asset prices remain well supported, one of the structural forces that has weighed on the yen remains firmly in place.

No such thing as a free lunch US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted to justify the rationale behind US involvement in the first coordinated intervention with Japan in decades during a CNBC interview overnight. He spoke about preserving financial stability across Asia, giving Japan the breathing room to continue investing overseas and expressed confidence that the BOJ would ultimately do what was right for the Japanese economy.

But if I'm being honest, I don't think the explanation stacks up, or at least not entirely. The most interesting part of the interview wasn't what Bessent said, it was what he didn't. There was no mention whatsoever of the risk that Japan, left to defend the yen on its own, may eventually have been forced to sell US dollar assets to fund further intervention.

Instead, he repeatedly returned to Japan's ability to continue investing in the United States, immediately catching my attention given the enormous investment commitments made under last year's trade agreement. Call me cynical, but this administration has shown time and again there's no such thing as a free lunch. If it's prepared to scratch your back, it's usually because there's something much larger in it for the US. Protecting those investment flows while the long end of the US Treasury curve is already under pressure may have been every bit as important as stabilising the yen itself.

Where did the correlations go? Looking ahead, despite the apparent rationale behind the decision, there's no guarantee the intervention marks the start of a more sustained move lower in USD/JPY. Traditional macro drivers have shown little to no relationship with the pair recently.

Source: Tradingview

As the correlation matrix above highlights, yield differentials, Fed pricing, index futures and energy prices have shown little to no relationship with USD/JPY over both the short and medium-term, while volatility measures are providing mixed and incoherent messaging. That suggests the argument that a softer run of US economic data or stronger Japanese data will be enough to trigger a sustained decline in USD/JPY is not overly convincing. 

Eyes on the US calendar

Source: TradingView

More broadly, the direction of the US dollar is likely to be influenced by the incoming economic data flow. Some of the softness overnight coincided with a notable pullback in Fed rate expectations, with pricing for the June meeting next year falling to around 44 basis points, down more than 10 basis points from where it sat a week ago. That likely reflects the sharp decline in energy prices over recent days rather than anything contained in Tuesday's JOLTS report.

Source: TradingView

ADP employment will be watched closely after doing a reasonable job of predicting private sector payrolls growth in the official government figures in recent months. ISM services PMI is also important given the sector's significance to the broader US economy, with the prices paid and new orders components likely to provide the best read on inflationary pressures and the near-term growth outlook.

In Japan, wages data is unlikely to move the dial on its own. However, it remains a necessary ingredient if the BOJ is to continue normalising policy, relying on firmer wage growth to support demand, generate inflationary pressures and create the virtuous cycle policymakers have been trying to encourage.

Déjà vu for USD/JPY

Source: TradingView

USD/JPY staged a dramatic bounce from the support zone beneath 155.60 on Monday after what looked like a third straight day of intervention. Importantly, that's almost exactly where the pair stabilised after the intervention episode in late April and early May before going on to fully retrace the move over subsequent weeks.

Monday's capitulation-style candle was followed immediately by a bullish engulfing candle on Tuesday, suggesting selling pressure may already be fading. The price now finds itself wedged beneath an important resistance zone formed by the 200-day simple moving average and 157.92, the breakout level that paved the way for the surge to fresh multi-decade highs following the April-May intervention episode.

Given the historical significance of those levels, I get the sense the resistance zone overhead, particularly the 200-day moving average, will act like a dam wall. If the price can break and hold above it, it would reinforce the view the intervention episode is over for now, opening the door for a push towards the 100-day moving average near 160 before bringing the former record high at 160.73, a level that has acted as both support and resistance this year, into view.

While RSI (14) and MACD have weakened sharply following the intervention-induced flush of speculative longs, that alone shouldn't be interpreted as a signal the downside move will persist. If anything, the violent washout leaves positioning looking far less stretched than it did only a week ago. If renewed selling does emerge, which at this stage feels like the less likely outcome, the support zone beneath 155.60 remains the level to watch.

EUR/JPY eyes further retracement

Source: TradingView

The technical picture for EUR/JPY is similar, with a bullish engulfing candle printing on Tuesday and the pair now sitting just beneath 182, a level that acted as support for extended periods earlier this year before giving way during the intervention episode.

Like USD/JPY, that resistance zone feels like a dam wall. If the price can break and hold above 182, it would reinforce the bullish engulfing signal, opening the door for a push towards the 200-day simple moving average at 183.70. Beyond that, the confluence of the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages around 185 comes into view, followed by 186, another level of note given it acted as resistance for extended periods before flipping to support ahead of the intervention episode.

On the downside, the pair bounced violently after a brief foray beneath 180 during Monday's likely intervention. That leaves the area around 180 as the first support zone to watch, followed by 178.83, the breakout level from October last year.

The EUR/JPY buyers stop the bleeding after three consecutive days of losses, registering modest gains of 0.56% on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at around 181.90 after US and Japanese authorities intervened in the FX markets to propel the Japanese Yen against its pairs.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookFollowing last week’s intervention, the EUR/JPY shifted from bullish to sideways trading, slightly tilted to the downside, after clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Momentum suggests further downside, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) tumbles toward oversold territory. 

For a bearish continuation, sellers must clear the figure at 180.00. Beneath this area lies the August 3 cycle low of 179.3, ahead of the October 30, 2025, high at 178.82

On the other hand, for a bullish resumption, traders must push EUR/JPY above the 182.00 level, followed by 183.00. Above these two milestones sits the 200-day SMA at 183.74.

EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily

EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Improving risk sentiment helped lift the Australian dollar after easing Middle East tensions and stronger US economic data. While AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD all advanced, each cross is approaching important technical levels that could determine whether the rally extends or fades.

View related analysis:

Gold Price Outlook: Can Quiet Accumulation Trigger a Breakout? Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Plunge Loses Steam, but Risks Remain USD at a Crossroads: Can EUR/USD and AUD/USD Extend Their Gains? FX Futures Positioning: Yen, Euro Bears Caught Short | COT report Risk Sentiment Drives the Australian Dollar Higher Middle East Optimism Lifts Global Risk Sentiment Prospects that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen boosted risk appetite on Tuesday, lifting Wall Street sentiment. ISM manufacturing PMI also edged higher to 55.6 from 53.3. Employment expanded, new orders ticked higher and prices paid ticked lower, albeit from elevated levels. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones reached record highs, while the Nasdaq closed in on 30,000. The SPI 200 rose 0.4% overnight, which should see the ASX 200 gap higher and place its all-time high within a day's typical trading range.

Antipodeans Lead as Yen Lags AUD/USD and NZD/USD were the strongest FX majors as the antipodeans embraced the positive lead from the Middle East headlines. Whether that proves to be another false start, however, risks reversing that sentiment. The Japanese yen was the weakest FX major, although its losses were marginal as traders likely remained wary of betting against the combined might of the MOF and the Fed. USD/JPY edged higher in line with yesterday's bias, although resistance emerged around the first zone, which includes the 200-day moving averages near 157.80. I suspect bears are seeking evidence of swing highs around resistance levels, with 158.00, 159.00 and 159.40 the main contenders.

Source: LSEG

Australian Dollar Technical Setups AUD/USD Presses Against Key Resistance The Aussie has so far held up well against the US dollar's mild bullish retracement. Given the AU-US two-year yield spread has risen so far this week, perhaps a breakout is on the cards in the near term. For now, AUD/USD continues to respect the June VPOC as resistance, and even if bulls break above it, they still have the monthly R1 pivot point and the June 15 high to contend with. A break above 0.7100 could provide the first real test of this risk-on rally.

For now, however, my bias remains for a swing high to form and for AUD/USD to snap its four-week winning streak. The RBA seems unlikely to hike again this cycle, while futures traders continue to increase their bearish bets against the Australian dollar, according to recent Commitment of Traders (COT) data.

Source: ICE, TradingView

AUD/JPY Bounce Faces Heavy Resistance After its worst five-day run in 15 months, AUD/JPY found support at its 200-day moving averages and formed a bullish engulfing day. Under normal circumstances, this could provide the foundation for a decent rebound, but traders are right to remain wary of betting against the Japanese yen too aggressively given the scale of currency intervention over the past week. I therefore suspect that, as with USD/JPY, bears may be looking to fade rallies around resistance levels.

Tuesday's high stalled around the July low, the 111.00 handle and the prior intervention level. The monthly pivot point also sits just beneath the 112.00 handle, while the July VPOC is near 112.50. Ultimately, bears have several notable resistance levels to monitor for evidence of a potential swing high.

Source: ICE, TradingView

AUD/NZD Bears Defend the 1.20 Handle The Aussie is in a clear downtrend against the Kiwi dollar on the daily chart, although it is trying to form a swing low. Monday's bearish outside candle met resistance at the 1.20 handle before closing beneath the March low, although Tuesday's bullish inside day suggests a tentative attempt to form a trough.

Today's New Zealand employment figures could determine whether hawkish RBNZ bets help push AUD/NZD towards the 200-day moving averages at 1.1556, or whether bulls have another crack at 1.20. But until we see a break or daily close above 1.20, risks remain skewed to the downside, with a break beneath the 200-day moving averages bringing 1.18 into focus.

Source: ICE, TradingView

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

US Dollar Talking Points: The carry trade in USD/JPY has been building for more than five years now and the Japanese Yen weakness that’s seen the pair rise by more than 50% over that time is a large point of imbalance across global foreign exchange markets. The Bank of Japan has no dire need for near-term rate hikes, as Japanese inflation is currently at 1.6-1.7%. They also have an inflation target of 2% but unlike the US, inflation is currently subdued below that waypoint. Nonetheless, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that Japanese officials should look to tighter policy following the posture around interventions last week after the FOMC and BoJ rate decisions.

It’s truly a conundrum for the Bank of Japan. On one hand, they’d probably prefer it if the Japanese Yen didn’t weaken dramatically against global currencies, like the US Dollar. But on the other, there’s no pressing demand for a rate hike as their inflation levels remain below the bank’s 2% target.

Allowing the currency to fall rapidly runs the risk of bringing on unsavory levels of inflation, which would require rate hikes and, in-turn, a threat to Japanese growth. And for a country with an aging and declining population who spent decades struggling with deflation and disinflation, risking that growth is a pretty unsavory concept particularly when there’s not a massive current demand for such.

On the part of the United States, however, there’s a couple of reasons that they would want to see some form of action. The USD/JPY spot rate sits near recently-established 40-year highs. As the second largest component of the DXY basket, the significant JPY weakness of the past five years has kept the value of DXY elevated, which makes trade a more difficult venture for the United States as exported products are more expensive and imports are relatively cheaper.

But perhaps the biggest risk – is that if Japanese policymakers wanted to continue to try to have their cake and eat it too, by using interventions to run stops on market participants while trying to draw some artificial line in the sand, without hiking rates to address the fundamental divergence between the two economies rate policies – that would probably entail Japan selling US Treasuries. And that would mean even higher US Treasury yields, and we’ve already seen the 30-year bond push up to a fresh 19-year high.

So this is really a story wrapped in intrigue and it can have repercussions far and wide depending on how aggressively it spins out of control.

That global carry trade is, in essence, a form of leverage. We saw what happens when just some of that leverage gets taken out back in July of 2024, when the BoJ intervened on the morning of a US CPI print and despite markets finally getting the confirmation they needed that rate cuts were on the way, the Nasdaq 100 put in a bearish engulf and then sold off with aggression over the next few weeks.

The reason was some of that leverage brought upon by the carry trade was taken out as USD/JPY unwound, and that hit levered markets like high flying AI tech stocks until calm started to return on the morning of August 5th.

We’re not at that point yet, but if Scott Bessent has his way the situation could produce unwelcome and unexpected repercussions fairly soon.

Where this matters for the US Dollar – it’s been obvious for some time that the current administration would like a weaker USD. Trump has said as much, extolling the benefit of a weak currency for exporting goods while making domestic goods more competitive on a cost basis. Those efforts have largely fallen flat over the past year-and-change as the USD is roughly flat since last April, and a big reason why is the run in USD/JPY which extended after last year’s election of Sanae Takaichi, thereby putting both central banks in a precarious spot.

For now, it’s difficult to get too excited about USD/JPY above 160.00 as that’s the type of level that may evoke another intervention or a threat of such. Meanwhile, the fundamental bias remains tilted to the long side of the pair and thusly, for the US Dollar as a whole, there’s a lean towards trend strategies for short-term strength and breakout strategies for broader weakness.

US Dollar Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY

Last week was one of the largest red bars in USD/JPY since that July 2024 episode, and already for this week it looks like bulls are starting to make a return. It’s still too early to say that the dust has settled but it also highlights what I was talking about in the weekend video, where interventions at or around that 155.00 level seem to make little sense. Thus, we’ve seen buyers return to bid the dip but what remains to be seen is whether there is another swing of intervention above 158 or perhaps upon a test of the 160.00 handle.

USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Despite the Euro being a 57.6% allocation of the DXY basket it really does feel like the larger currency pair is along for the ride.

This makes sense if we consider that USD/JPY is up more than 50% over the past five years – and given that the only thing that can actually push price in a real market is demand it highlights that there’s still an imbalance of longs v/s shorts. And when that comes into question, even just a little bit, that USD-selling could happen across currency pairs and not just against the Japanese Yen.

I talked about this in last week’s webinar and I reiterated it this week. At this point it’s the 1.1500 level in EUR/USD that’s held the lows now for two consecutive days and there’s bullish structure in place down to the Friday swing low of 1.1455.

EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview GBP/USD Cable built in a similar falling wedge into the Fed last week, and the response there was perhaps even more emphatic as buyers pounced on the bullish reversal. The challenge now for the pair is that 1.3500 level but there’s higher-low support potential around 1.3390 for bullish continuation scenarios.

GBP/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/CAD USD/CAD looks somewhat calm on a relative basis, following last week’s test and hold a the 1.4000 level. Following that test on Thursday, we’ve had higher lows, illustrating an element of bullish anticipation as buyers have stepped in with a bit more aggression over the past couple of days. This keeps the door open for short-term strength and for those looking for USD-strength, this may be a less chaotic backdrop than what showed in USD/JPY and perhaps a bit cleaner than EUR/USD or perhaps even GBP/USD which are vying for possible bullish trend scenarios.

USD/CAD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

The daily RSI reads 86.56, which is well into the overbought territory. A drop back down below 70 could be a confirmation that momentum is reversing in the bearish direction.

The most immediate risk to USD/TRY’s bullish trend is a sustained U.S-Iran ceasefire, with news reports about ongoing talks between both countries, and President Trump calling it Iran’s last chance to secure a deal. If a deal is eventually reached and tensions ease, the crude premium that has kept Turkey’s inflation high will soften, and the lira could strengthen against the dollar.

USD/TRY Long-Term Outlook: Does the Bigger Picture Still Favor the Dollar? Zooming out on the USD/TRY monthly chart to see the bigger picture reveals a relentless upward climb that has been going on for years. The monthly EMA bands are also widely spread apart, with price sitting well above all four lines.

The August monthly candle has also flipped bullish and broken past the upper wick of last month’s candle, cementing the near-term bullish thesis. And as long as TCMB’s interest rates remain high and inflation doesn’t come down, the pair could keep climbing into the high-40s over the coming months, favoring the dollar over the lira.

Over the last few sessions, the USD/CAD has seen a slight appreciation of nearly 0.3% in favor of the US dollar. However, beyond this mild bias, the broader chart picture reflects a prolonged consolidation. Central bank dynamics, bond market behavior, and geopolitical caution in the Middle East are keeping volatility in check. As long as these catalysts remain in play, sideways trading could continue to dominate the pair's short-term swings.

How Are Central Bank Dynamics Holding Up? A key factor here is the interest rate differential. While the benchmark rate in the United States holds steady at 3.75%, Canada's remains stable at 2.25%. This gap has been a major driver behind the Canadian dollar's depreciation over the past few months, simply because US dollar-denominated assets remain much more attractive to investors.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada isn't signaling any surprise pivots. Following its latest decision, the central bank acknowledged a slight economic improvement that rules out any drastic shifts in monetary policy. In fact, the market is pricing in an 80% probability that the rate will stay put at 2.25% during the September meeting, reflecting expectations of a neutral stance with no major short-term adjustments.

In the United States, while the odds of aggressive hikes have also cooled off, the picture looks a bit different. According to CMEGROUP, there is still a 56.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will opt for a rate hike in September, pushing the benchmark rate toward the 4.00% zone. This keeps the prospect alive that the US central bank could turn out to be more hawkish than its Canadian counterpart in the coming months.

Source: CMEGROUP

Given the caution from both institutions, bond market dynamics in the two countries have largely converged. Over the last few sessions, the 10-year bond yield in the United States has dropped from the 4.7% area, while Canada is seeing a similar slide from its peak of 3.66%. Moving in the same direction, neither market offers the kind of standout appeal that would trigger a massive capital flow into either currency. Still, the yield spread continues to favor the United States, which keeps a lid on any sustained rally for the Canadian dollar.

Source: TradingEconomics

All in all, the cross remains stuck in a cautious holding pattern. The lack of bond market catalysts and the conservative tone from central banks suggest that consolidation could continue to dominate the USD/CAD. That said, if the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish tone, the rate differential would widen, making it harder for the Canadian dollar to recover and potentially reigniting buying pressure on the pair in the coming weeks.

Is the Middle East Becoming Relevant Again?

The geopolitical backdrop is also playing a major role. The US government, under President Trump, decided to pause strikes and resume negotiations in the Middle East, with countries like Qatar announcing progress in the talks. This de-escalation has pushed WTI crude back below the $80 mark, easing the global risk premium.

Rather than giving the USD/CAD a clear direction, this event has actually deepened the sideways trend. On one hand, lower risk aversion cuts down the demand for the US dollar as a safe haven, which would theoretically favor the Canadian dollar. On the flip side, cheaper oil hurts Canada, where crude exports make up nearly 20% of its trade balance. This drop weighs on the country's economic outlook for 2026 and dampens confidence in its currency.

Bottom line, geopolitical tensions are breeding more caution than aggressive moves. As long as negotiations keep rolling without any major hiccups, indecision could keep setting the pace for the USD/CAD, at least until a heavier macroeconomic data release manages to grab the market's attention.

USD/CAD Technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Lack of clear direction becoming evident: Despite recent recovery attempts, the broader USD/CAD picture remains trapped in indecision. Price action is failing to define a clear trend, paving the way for a potential sideways range. Until a stronger directional push emerges, this consolidation could remain the dominant theme on the chart.
  RSI: The indicator is hovering near the neutral 50 level and showing a noticeable flattening. This reflects a balance between buying and selling momentum over the last few sessions. If this behavior persists, it could continue to highlight a potential phase of sideways trading or relevant neutrality on the chart.
  MACD: The histogram sits right near the neutral 0 line, suggesting a balance in short-term moving average momentum. This technical reading reinforces the expectation that indecision could remain a key feature in the upcoming trading sessions.
  Key Levels:

1.42132 (Key Resistance): The 2026 high zone and the chart's main bullish barrier. A sustained move toward this level could reignite the bullish bias and open the door to reclaiming the uptrend line that dominated a few weeks back.
  1.41266 (Nearby Barrier): Aligns with recent highs and acts as a key retracement zone. If the price fails to break cleanly away from this level, it could exacerbate the sideways chop and confirm a short-term consolidation range.
  1.39926 (Crucial Support): A major support level matching recent lows below the 50-period moving average. A breakdown below this point could trigger a sharper bearish phase and activate a short-term downtrend line.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers some ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, up 0.14%, as US jobs data was softer than expected but confirmed the strength of the labor market, with layoffs being little changed. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3451 after rebounding from 1.3419. Read More...

British Pound finds footing at 1.3420 with markets awaiting US Job Openings dataThe British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, reaching session highs above 1.3440 after finding support at the 1.3420 area earlier on the day. A mild risk appetite amid market hopes of a negotiated breakthrough in Iran and investors’ cautiousness ahead of key US labour market releases are keeping US Dollar bulls subdued on Tuesday. Read More...

British Pound weakens below 1.3450 as US-Iran uncertainty boosts safe-haven US DollarThe GBP/USD pair loses ground to near 1.3425 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks drives traders toward a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP). All eyes will be on the US July jobs data, which is due later on Friday. Read More...

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels USD/CHF reversed sharply after briefly reaching a major upside objective highlighted in last month's forecast. An outside-week reversal has shifted the focus from trend continuation to whether support can stabilize the broader uptrend. The median line of the yearly advance is now the key battleground heading into August. A break below support would threaten a deeper correction within the yearly uptrend, while a pivot above the July high would be needed to put the bulls back in control. This week's U.S. labor market data could provide the catalyst for the next major directional move. Resistance 8103, 8200/15 (key), 8333– Support 8009 (key), 7827/44, 7769 USD/CHF enters the new week / month at an important technical crossroads after reversing sharply from major technical resistance at the yearly high. The failed breakout has shifted attention from trend continuation to whether buyers can stabilize the current pullback before it develops into a broader correction. With price now testing median-line support and key U.S. labor market data on deck, the next move out of last week's range could provide important directional guidance for the opening weeks of August. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CHF trading within a well-defined range just above the median line and that, “losses would need to be limited to 8009 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch..” We specifically highlighted that, “the next major technical consideration is eyed at the 100% extension of the January advance and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline at 8200/15. Note that the upper parallel converges on this zone over the next few weeks and represents an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.” The range broke the following week with USD/CHF registering an intraday high at 8207 before reversing sharply on the heels of the Fed rate decision. An outside-weekly reversal off the yearly high last week takes price back into the median-line and the immediate focus is on a breakout of last week’s range for guidance.  

Initial resistance is eyed at the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8103 with key resistance steady at 8200/15. A breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at eh 2024 low at 8333 and the 2026 low-week close / 2024 open at 8407/16- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

A break / weekly close below the median-line would threaten a deeper correction within the yearly uptrend towards the March high-week close (HWC) at 8009. Key support / broader bullish invalidation rests with the objective yearly open and the 52-week moving average at 7927/44. Note that this zone converges on the lower parallel over the next few weeks and losses below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.

           

Bottom line: USD/CHF reversed off confluent uptrend resistance last week with the pullback now testing support at the median line. The immediate focus into the start of the month is on a breakout of last week’s range for directional guidance here. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 8009 IF price is heading higher on this stretch, with a breach above 8215 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Attention this week turns to the U.S. labor market, with ADP private-sector employment due Wednesday ahead of Friday's highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report. With Chair Warsh emphasizing the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability, the employment data will be closely scrutinized for clues on how much flexibility policymakers have to tighten policy further. Stay nimble into the releases and use the weekly close as your directional guide. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

Key USD/CHF Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts Gold (XAU/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) British Pound (GBP/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

XAU/USD Current price: $ 4,087Hopes for a Strait of Hormuz reopening put pressure on the US Dollar.The United States macroeconomic calendar gyrates around employment figures this week.XAU/USD is mildly bullish in the near term, still needs to reconquer $4,100. The US Dollar (USD) is under mild selling pressure on Tuesday, pressured by headlines indicating that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as Wednesday.

Tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have fluctuated heavily in recent weeks, with two weeks of continued crossfire in the Middle East abruptly pausing late in July. In the last few days, mediation has continued with little progress, yet Tuesday brought some relief as representatives from both sides hinted at reopening the critical sea passage in the next couple of days.

On the one hand, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday in an interview with CNBC. On the other hand, Al Arabiya reported that the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may be “within hours or tomorrow,” according to a high-level source.

The news fueled risk appetite, pushing stock markets firmly up and putting modest pressure on the Greenback. Such pressure was, however, barely enough to lift precious metals within range. XAU/USD surged towards the $4,090 price zone, still confined within July’s tight range.

Other than that, the US reported that the number of job openings stood at 7.359 million in June, easing from the7.537 million openings reported in May, according to the JOLTS Job Openings report. The news adds modest pressure on the Greenback, yet market participants await more US employment-related figures: On Wednesday, the country will publish the July ADP Employment Change, ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday.

Employment figures, while relevant in terms of future Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decisions, may not have a relevant impact on the USD as long as data shows the labor market remains stable. Policymakers are clearly more worried about inflation.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart indicates XAU/USD is bullish in the near term. Spot holds above the clustered simple moving averages, with the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,067.46, the 100-period SMA at $4,052.89, and the 200-period SMA at $4,072.15 all acting as underlying support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north at 57, while the Momentum indicator turns higher above its midline, which together hint at sustained upward pressure as long as price holds above these moving-average floors.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD remains neutral. The metal holds just above the 20-day SMA at $4,060.47, but remains well below the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $4,407.09 and $4,490.17, respectively, which keeps the broader backdrop bearish despite a modest near-term bounce. The RSI indicator hovers around a neutral 49, while the 14-day Momentum indicator is also flat around its midline, reflecting the lack of directional strength.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-period SMA around $4,072.15, followed by the short-term 20-period SMA at $4,067.46 and then the 100-period SMA at $4,052.89, where a deeper pullback would likely meet buyers. Immediate technical resistance comes in the $4,120 region, where Gold has met sellers over the last few days. Gains beyond the area expose the $4,150 price zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

/ / Gold is in consolidation above the yearly low for a seventh-consecutive week, with the next breakout likely to determine the August outlook.

04/08/2026

8/4/2026 2:54:00 PM

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Multi-Timeframe Analysis Gold price analysis shows the metal coiling in a seven-week range just above its yearly lows as momentum grinds to its weakest since late 2023. Michael Boutros, FOREX.com Senior Market Analyst, breaks down gold across the weekly, daily, and four-hour charts and the fundamentals that could drive its next directional move. Boutros explains why gold has stalled in a tightening consolidation range and what a genuine breakout would take to confirm a more significant low. He also weighs how Federal Reserve rate expectations and the upcoming ADP employment and nonfarm payrolls releases could shape where gold goes next.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Active Short-term Technical Charts

Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Risk Builds Into Month-End Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Rally Presses Yearly Trend Resistance Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Rebound Challenges the July Downtrend Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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