Scotiabank highlights that the Euro is slightly softer versus the Dollar after touching levels last seen in mid-June, with fundamentals still supportive as yield spreads turn. Spot has nearly converged with their fair value based on the 2-year Germany–US spread. Further EUR/USD gains likely need a shift in relative central bank expectations or improved sentiment, with near-term range seen at 1.1500–1.1600.
Euro aligns with yield-spread fair value"The EUR is entering Thursday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% decline vs. the USD, trading defensively following an overnight push to a fresh local high reaching levels last seen in mid-June."
"Fundamentals remain supportive and the EUR’s recent recovery has closely mirrored the turn in yield spreads. Spot EUR has largely closed the gap to our FV estimate narrowly based on the 2Y Germany-US yield spread, which currently stands at 1.1538."
"Further gains will likely require some further shift in the outlook for relative central bank policy or an improvement in sentiment, as risk reversals reveal a continued premium for protection against EUR weakness."
"In data, the second-tier euro area retail sales figures have offered a slight disappointment for June but were balanced by stronger German factory orders—neither release appears to have had any impact on spot."
"Bullish—the latest recovery in the RSI is important, climbing into bullish territory with a push to the low 60s. The gains in spot have delivered a fresh multi-week high reaching levels last seen in mid-June, however we continue to note the persistence of near-term resistance around 1.1550. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1600."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a dramatic rebound, surging over 4% on Wednesday to move within striking distance of the $4,300/oz threshold. This rally is being propelled by growing optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement, which has driven crude oil prices lower and significantly tempered market expectations for near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. As US Treasury yields and the Greenback ease, bullion is benefiting from a favorable combination of disinflationary energy trends, technical short-covering, and persistent central bank buying.
Gold daily chartInstitutional Analysis: ING vs. OCBCTo evaluate the primary catalysts and technical boundaries driving Gold's upward breakout, we highlight the core findings from ING and OCBC:
Macroeconomic Drivers: ING notes that lower energy prices are reducing inflation worries, allowing markets to scale back Fed tightening bets and creating a supportive backdrop for non-yielding assets. OCBC emphasizes that September Fed hike odds have fallen to roughly 55% (down from 66% a week prior), driving down real yields and the US Dollar.Market Mechanics: ING attributes the move to fading geopolitical risk premiums offset by dovish rate expectations and strong Chinese investment demand. OCBC highlights that clearing key overhead resistance triggered widespread short-covering and technical buying.Central Bank Activity: OCBC flags news that the Bank of Korea is preparing to purchase domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years alongside recent gold ETF purchases, adding a sentiment boost alongside ongoing Chinese demand noted by ING.Key Technical Levels: OCBC identifies near-term resistance at $4,333 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and $4,393 (100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)), with support levels anchored at $4,160 (50-day SMA) and $4,077 (21-day SMA).Easing energy prices and dovish Fed shifts drive bullion breakoutCommodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey at ING emphasize that the market is shifting its focus from geopolitical risk to the broader macroeconomic relief provided by lower energy prices. As optimism around US-Iran talks weakens crude oil, the disinflationary impulse is easing pressure on the Fed to maintain an aggressive stance, boosting the appeal of gold.
"The market is increasingly focusing on the disinflationary implications of lower energy prices. Expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have eased, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets such as gold. Continued investment demand from China has also helped underpin the market."
Technical buying and official-sector demand reinforce near-term momentumEchoing this constructive view, Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong at OCBC point out that technical factors played a major role in accelerating the rally. Once prices broke above immediate resistance, short-covering took over. Coupled with novel buying signals from central banks like the Bank of Korea, near-term momentum has turned mildly bullish, though upcoming macroeconomic releases remain critical to sustaining the breakout.
"Gold’s strength suggests investors are increasingly pricing a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, a normalisation of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, lower real interest rates and a softer USD... Near-term momentum has improved, with Friday’s upcoming US payrolls report now key to whether the decline in yields, USD and gold’s breakout can be sustained."
Banks anticipate a sustained upward bias dependent on rate expectationsBased on the assessments from both institutions, the banks project a favorable near-term environment for Gold, anchored by cooling rate-hike expectations and lower Oil prices. ING expects bullion to maintain its support as long as the US Dollar stays soft and Fed policy expectations tilt dovish, even if geopolitical risk premiums continue to dissipate. Concurrently, OCBC cautions that while momentum is mildly bullish toward resistance at $4,333 and $4,393, the longevity of this breakout will ultimately hinge on whether upcoming US payrolls data supports lower Treasury yields and a weaker greenback.
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD trades on the back foot on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak as the US Dollar (USD) steadies. Still, the near-term technical picture remains bullish following the late-July rebound from below 1.1400. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1534, down 0.15% on the day.
Traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, which could shape Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations and drive volatility in EUR/USD.
Analysts at Scotiabank note that “fundamentals remain supportive and the EUR’s recent recovery has closely mirrored the turn in yield spreads,” with spot now trading close to their fair-value estimates. However, they caution that “further gains will likely require some further shift in the outlook for relative central bank policy or an improvement in sentiment, as risk reversals reveal a continued premium for protection against EUR weakness.”
From a technical perspective, Scotiabank describes the setup as “bullish—the latest recovery in the RSI is important, climbing into bullish territory with a push to the low 60s,” but still expects consolidation, stating that “we look to a near-term range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1600.”
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a mildly bullish near-term tone as it holds above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1474. However, topside progress is already challenged by the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1629, which cap the advance for now.
Momentum remains constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line in positive territory, hinting that buyers still have the upper hand while the pair trades above its short-term trend support.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 50-day SMA at 1.1474, ahead of a more significant horizontal floor near 1.1350. On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1569, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1629, while a stronger barrier awaits at the horizontal level of 1.1700.
A daily close above the 100-day SMA would open the way toward the 1.1629-1.1700 band, whereas a loss of the 1.1474 support area would suggest that the current bullish bias is starting to erode.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.17%0.00%0.28%0.04%0.26%0.12%0.31%EUR-0.17%-0.16%0.13%-0.13%0.07%-0.03%0.14%GBP-0.01%0.16%0.30%0.04%0.24%0.11%0.31%JPY-0.28%-0.13%-0.30%-0.24%-0.04%-0.16%0.04%CAD-0.04%0.13%-0.04%0.24%0.21%0.10%0.29%AUD-0.26%-0.07%-0.24%0.04%-0.21%-0.12%0.07%NZD-0.12%0.03%-0.11%0.16%-0.10%0.12%0.22%CHF-0.31%-0.14%-0.31%-0.04%-0.29%-0.07%-0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is edging lower Thursday after hitting its highest level since July 6 at $62.91. At first, the breakout over the 50-day moving average at $62.36 suggested the buying was getting stronger. However, the sudden reversal and break back under the 50-day moving average suggest the move may have been a bull trap.
The 50-day moving average, today’s intraday high at $62.91 and the July 6 swing top at $63.28 are now resistance levels.
The first downside target is the long-term 50% level at $60.835. If a test of this level fails to bring in buyers, look for a potential break into the retracement zone at $58.84 to $57.89.
Since the swing chart trend indicator turned up Wednesday, traders may have shifted into buy-the-dip mode. The first area they are likely to defend is $60.835, followed by $58.84 to $57.89. They are likely to remain in this mode until the swing bottom at $56.64 is violated.
A sustained move over the intraday high at $62.91 could trigger a test of $63.28. Taking out this swing top would reaffirm the uptrend and put the 200-day moving average at $71.01 on the radar.
What to Watch Silver ran hard for two sessions on lower oil, a falling dollar and shrinking rate-hike odds. All three stalled Thursday and the metal is pulling back from the overnight high. The rally was a macro relief trade and macro relief trades need the relief to continue. Friday’s payrolls is the catalyst. Soft hiring and weaker wages keep the dollar under pressure and give silver room to hold above the breakout. Firm wages and solid hiring put the September trade back together and the pullback from $62.91 has further to go.
The breakout above the 50-day moving average failed to hold and that is a concern. Buyers who shifted into buy-the-dip mode after Wednesday’s trend change have to defend the first support area or the rally loses credibility fast. A strong jobs number on top of a failed breakout gives sellers everything they need.
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Persian Gulf Uncertainty and Interest Rate Pressures There are questions as to whether or not a deal is close or not, and generally speaking what we have are American officials saying that we are close and Iranians denying that, and that’s been the game we’ve been playing for a while. This has a major influence on interest rate markets, which of course in turn have a major influence on gold most of the time.
And with a non-yielding asset like gold, we do have to worry about higher rates because, quite frankly, why take the risk when you can get a guaranteed return?
A short-term pullback from here would make a certain amount of sense, and the 50-day EMA is right above the consolidation area that we just broke out of, so that’s an area that might be worth watching to pick up value. If we continue to go higher from here, then it would be a very strong sign for gold, and at that point in time one would think that dip buying might start to commence in the market as people chase returns.
Technical Hurdles and Lagging Gold This isn’t to say that silver isn’t going to be bullish down the road; I think it will. Quite frankly, there is barely enough industrial demand, and that demand continues to increase. So, I think sooner or later that comes into the picture, but as things stand right now, traders are more worried about more immediate problems, such as the Middle East.
So, I think it’s likely that a lot of people out there just don’t really know what to do. We are in the midst of what could be thought of as a bottoming pattern, or we’re at the top of a consolidation area, take your pick. Either way, it is not until we break above the moving averages, both the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA, that you would have a significant amount of momentum showing in the market. Ironically, gold has already made a move to break out of its range; silver is lagging.
The US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are approaching major technical resistance levels after recent rallies. Payrolls data could determine whether the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged or signals another hike. US Dollar awaits Nonfarm Payrolls as markets reassess Fed outlook The US Dollar remained in focus on Thursday as traders positioned ahead of the July Nonfarm Payrolls report, widely regarded as the week’s most important economic release. Following a string of softer US economic indicators, investors have reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase, leaving Friday’s labour market data as the next major test for the greenback.
Recent declines in JOLTS job openings, weaker factory orders and softer private-sector hiring have fuelled speculation that the US labour market may finally be cooling after months of resilience. While Federal Reserve officials continue to insist that policy decisions remain data dependent, markets are increasingly looking for evidence that inflation pressures are easing enough to allow interest rates to remain unchanged.
A stronger-than-expected payrolls report would likely revive demand for the US Dollar by supporting higher Treasury yields and reinforcing expectations that the Fed could maintain a restrictive stance for longer. Conversely, another disappointing employment report could increase pressure on the dollar as investors scale back expectations for additional policy tightening.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro Holds Near Seven-Week High as German Factory Orders Beat Forecasts EUR/USD remains one of the most closely watched currency pairs ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, with the euro holding near the 1.1550 level after mixed economic data from the Eurozone. Germany’s factory orders unexpectedly rose 3.1% in June, comfortably beating market expectations and signalling that Europe’s largest economy continues to show resilience despite elevated borrowing costs and global uncertainty. However, the positive manufacturing data was partly offset by weaker Eurozone retail sales, which fell 0.3% in June, highlighting that consumer demand remains fragile.
The mixed data has done little to derail the euro’s recent recovery, as investors continue to trim expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. With EUR/USD trading near its highest level since mid-June, markets are now looking to Friday’s US jobs report to determine whether the pair can extend gains toward the 1.1600 psychological level or retreat as the dollar attempts to recover.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Holds Firm Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls Report Sterling continues to outperform against the US dollar, with GBP/USD remaining close to recent highs as traders balance a resilient UK economy against growing uncertainty over US monetary policy. The Bank of England’s cautious approach to interest rates, combined with easing expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, has provided steady support for the pound in recent sessions. Investors are also monitoring incoming UK economic data, including construction activity and labour market indicators, for fresh clues on whether the BoE will need to keep policy restrictive for longer.
However, the biggest catalyst for GBP/USD remains Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to shape expectations for the Fed’s September meeting. A softer-than-expected payrolls reading could weaken the US dollar further and allow sterling to challenge the 1.3500 resistance zone, while stronger employment data may trigger a pullback across major currency pairs.
US Dollar Outlook: Nonfarm Payrolls Set to Decide the Dollar’s Next Move The US dollar remains the primary focus across global currency markets as investors position ahead of Friday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the final major economic release before traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s September interest-rate outlook. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade below the psychologically important 100.00 level after retreating from recent highs, reflecting growing uncertainty over whether the Fed will need to tighten policy further to contain inflation. While Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that policymakers remain committed to restoring price stability, recent economic data has painted a more mixed picture, prompting markets to dial back expectations for another immediate rate hike.
Recent labour market indicators have weakened the dollar’s momentum. ADP private payrolls growth slowed sharply in July, while JOLTS job openings and factory orders also disappointed, suggesting that hiring demand and business activity are beginning to cool. Investors will now look to Friday’s official employment report for confirmation on whether the slowdown is broadening across the US economy. A stronger-than-expected payrolls reading could revive expectations for another Fed rate increase and lift the dollar, while softer employment data would reinforce expectations that policymakers are nearing the end of the current tightening cycle.
Beyond the labour market, Treasury yields and broader risk sentiment remain key drivers of the greenback. The recent decline in oil prices following progress in US-Iran negotiations has eased inflation concerns, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep policy restrictive for longer. At the same time, improving investor appetite for risk has limited demand for the US dollar’s traditional safe-haven appeal. With the DXY sitting near a key technical support zone and major currency pairs approaching important resistance levels, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is widely expected to determine the next major direction for the US dollar and the broader foreign exchange market.
Why is the US Dollar in focus today?
The US Dollar is in focus ahead of the July US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could significantly influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.
Why is the Nonfarm Payrolls report important?
The monthly US employment report provides one of the clearest indicators of labour market strength and often influences Federal Reserve policy expectations, making it one of the biggest market-moving events each month.
What could move GBP/USD higher?
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report or stronger UK economic data could help GBP/USD break above key resistance near 1.3500.
Rebounding gold prices and rising domestic inflation expectations for SARB rate hikes fueled the rand's rally against the US dollar Near-term support for the rand depends on risk sentiment and commodities, while the medium-term outlook remains balanced and Fed-sensitive US jobs/inflation data, Fed rate signals, SA inflation prints, and Middle East diplomacy will drive the next major move While everyone’s been focused on oil and what’s happening in the Middle East, the South African rand has actually been doing pretty well, even if it’s not the most exciting story. The USD/ZAR exchange rate has dropped over 1.1% in the past five trading sessions.
This continues a comeback that started around the end of July, when the rate hit a low of about 16.98, the weakest it had been in over three months. It’s not a big jump, but it’s been consistent. In currency trading, consistency often means several good things are happening at the same time.
Where Is the Rand Getting Its Strength? The rand’s recent strength is attributed to a combination of favorable commodity prices and evolving domestic interest rate expectations. Increased global prices for key exports like gold and platinum group metals have improved South Africa’s trade balance and boosted demand for its currency.
The rand is also benefiting from the same trend that’s pushed oil prices down. As tensions between the US and Iran have eased and there’s more hope for a diplomatic solution regarding the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil prices have generally improved risk sentiment. Since South Africa is a net oil importer, lower oil prices directly help its import costs and its currency.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep a gradual easing bias into late 2026. This has narrowed the dollar’s interest rate advantage over high-yielding emerging market currencies.
But this isn’t just a borrowed rally. South Africa also posted its third consecutive primary budget surplus, hitting 1.1% of GDP for the year through March. This suggests fiscal discipline is taking hold.
Near-Term and Medium-Term Outlook for USD/ZAR For the near term, the rand is expected to remain relatively strong, provided market sentiment stays positive and commodity prices remain firm. A consistent move below 16.30 could lead to further rand appreciation if U.S. economic data continues to underperform or if diplomatic progress reduces global uncertainties.
Conversely, any sharp rebound in the dollar on stronger US data or renewed geopolitical tension would quickly reverse recent rand strength.
Longer term, the picture looks more balanced. South Africa’s higher real interest rate differential still offers carry appeal, and ongoing structural reforms, coupled with commodity support, make for a positive environment.
Even so, the rand remains sensitive to Federal Reserve policy, global risk appetite, and domestic inflation developments.
What drove the sharp decline in the USD/ZAR exchange rate over recent trading sessions?
Stronger gold and platinum prices, combined with expectations of upcoming South African Reserve Bank interest rate hikes, pushed USD/ZAR down sharply.
What role did global crude oil prices play in shaping the rand’s recent performance?
Moderating crude oil prices eased South Africa’s import bill and reduced domestic inflationary pressure, supporting broader sentiment for the local currency.
Which factors should traders monitor most closely?
US economic data and Fed expectations, commodity prices especially precious metals, South African inflation and Reserve Bank signals, plus geopolitical developments.
The US dollar rebounded this morning and that caused the EUR/USD and the price of gold and silver to ease back from their earlier highs following yesterday’s big precious metals rally. The greenback lost ground yesterday after reports suggested Washington and Tehran were edging closer to an agreement that could ease tensions in the Middle East and help stabilise energy markets. The prospect of lower oil prices reduced concerns over inflation, encouraging investors to trim expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, while favouring currencies that were undermined by the prior energy spike, such as the euro. However, as the anticipated announcement has so far failed to materialise, the dollar has recovered part of its losses, with investors becoming increasingly reluctant to chase risk ahead of key US data in the days ahead. The EUR/USD forecast remains cautious for now.
Iran deal or no deal? Markets embraced the prospect of a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, with expectations that any agreement could lead to the reopening of the strait of Hormuz and reduce the risk premium embedded in crude oil prices.
That encouraged flows into equities and precious metals while weighing on the greenback, as easing energy prices would lessen inflationary pressures and potentially reduce the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive policy for longer.
Yet again though, that enthusiasm has faded as the expected confirmation has so far failed to arrive. While negotiations may be progressing, traders are now demanding concrete developments rather than reacting solely to headlines. For now, the possibility of a deal continues to provide a supportive backdrop for broader risk sentiment, but it wouldn’t take much for markets to falter.
This keeps the near-term EUR/USD forecast highly uncertain. If oil prices were to spike again, then surely the currency pair will fall alongside risk.
Payrolls and inflation now take centre stage Meanwhile, attention will be shifting towards US economic data, with Friday’s non-farm payrolls report representing the next major test for financial markets, followed by CPI next week.
This week’s pre-NFP indicators have painted a mixed-to-weak picture. Private-sector hiring has cooled, while the employment component within the latest ISM services survey suggested labour market conditions may be softening. Today’s release of weekly unemployment data showed jobless claims rose by 199K vs. 203K eyed.
Policymakers from the Federal Reserve have repeatedly stressed that future decisions remain data dependent, meaning one report is unlikely to alter expectations dramatically unless it delivers a significant surprise.
Markets currently remain relatively steady in their expectations for Fed policy over the coming months, despite the sharp decline in oil prices this week. That highlights how investors are placing greater emphasis on labour market data and inflation than on short-term swings in commodity prices.
Looking beyond payrolls, next week’s CPI report is likely to prove even more influential. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would reinforce expectations that the Fed may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer, supporting the dollar. Conversely, another soft inflation print could place renewed pressure on the US currency. As you may recall, the June report showed a bigger than expected decline in headline CPI to 3.5% compared a prior reading of 4.2%, while core CPI was also softer at 2.6% compared to both expectations and the prior reading (2.9%).
Technical EUR/USD forecast and levels to watch Source: TradingView.com The EUR/USD has held above the 1.1500 handle this week, keeping the near-term technical bias to the upside. It is not trying to break its bearish trend line, and a big bad of resistance between 1.1560 to 1.1620ish. Without a collapse in oil prices, or significantly weaker US data, the balance of risks remain tilted to the downside for the EUR/USD forecast from here, given that markets have priced in a deal already. Technically, a break below 1.1500 support could see the pair head down to low 1.14s again, the base of the recent breakout.
GBP/JPY trades in a narrow range on Thursday, with the British Pound (GBP) modestly outperforming the Japanese Yen (JPY). The Yen stays on the back foot for a third consecutive day, reversing part of the intervention-driven rally that briefly sent GBP/JPY below 210.00 at the start of the week.
At the time of writing, GBP/JPY changes hands near 212.53, finding support at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Yen support questioned as Japan turns to tax cuts and handoutsRabobank’s Bas van Geffen notes that only days after the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury intervened in FX markets to prop up the Yen, “the cabinet approved a plan to cut the sales tax on food for two years.” He adds that, “on top of that, the government is planning handouts to lower-income households.”
Rabobank highlights that “the tax cut costs JPY 4 trillion (around 0.6% of GDP) in lost revenues annually, and the government did not specify how it would fund this shortfall.” The prime minister has tried to reassure investors that the measures are temporary, while Finance Minister Katayama has “pledged to refrain from financing this tax cut through Japan’s deficit.”
Crucially for JPY, Rabobank argues that “these tax cuts do not lead to investments that could structurally improve Japan’s economic growth – which could have lent JPY some of the necessary support.” They add that, “paradoxically, the cost of effective growth-enhancing policies would probably eclipse the budgetary implications of Takaichi’s food tax cuts,” leaving the Yen without the kind of durable, growth-based backing that markets are looking for.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, GBP/JPY holds below the 100-day, 50-day and 21-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which keeps the near-term bias bearish and the pair structurally capped.
The pair is still anchored above the longer-term 200-day SMA at 211.85, but the slide away from recent highs, together with a subdued Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 36 and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line below zero, indicate that downside momentum remains dominant.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at 214.47, followed by the 50-day SMA at 215.44 and then the 21-day SMA near 216.47, which together define a dense cap on recovery rallies.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 200-day SMA at 211.85, ahead of the horizontal floor around 210.00. A daily close below these levels would open the way for a deeper corrective phase, while holding above them would keep GBP/JPY in a broader consolidation despite the current bearish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.12%0.04%0.08%-0.08%0.25%0.06%0.33%EUR-0.12%-0.08%-0.02%-0.20%0.10%-0.03%0.21%GBP-0.04%0.08%0.04%-0.12%0.19%0.03%0.30%JPY-0.08%0.02%-0.04%-0.15%0.16%0.01%0.28%CAD0.08%0.20%0.12%0.15%0.31%0.17%0.43%AUD-0.25%-0.10%-0.19%-0.16%-0.31%-0.14%0.10%NZD-0.06%0.03%-0.03%-0.01%-0.17%0.14%0.29%CHF-0.33%-0.21%-0.30%-0.28%-0.43%-0.10%-0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Daily US Dollar Index (DXY) The dollar is still near recent lows after last week’s yen intervention, and lower oil has kept the unwind going by cutting the inflation premium out of the currency trade. Wednesday showed how fast gold moves when yields and the dollar both cooperate. The question Thursday is whether either one has enough momentum to keep the move going or whether they stabilize here and wait for Friday.
Kashkari Wants Higher Rates, Daly Wants to Wait Kashkari said policymakers should begin raising rates as more data arrives. He pointed to strong corporate earnings, a consumer still spending and a labor market that has not cracked. That is the same case he made with his vote last week and nothing since then has changed his mind.
Daly took the opposite position. She supported the hold and wants more evidence on inflation before the committee moves. The split is public and Friday’s data is what settles it. If the labor market is softening, Daly’s patience wins. If hiring and wages come in firm, Kashkari’s argument gets harder to push back on.
The ADP report Wednesday showed private payroll growth slowing in July. That helped gold buyers stay involved after the breakout but it is not the number that decides the rate path.
What to Watch The three headwinds that had been sitting on gold all broke in the same week and the metal moved fast. The risk now is that two of them are built on a deal that does not exist yet. If Hormuz talks stall and crude bounces, the inflation argument comes back and yields follow it higher. Gold covered a lot of ground in two sessions on macro relief. Holding it requires the data to confirm what the price is already showing.
Friday’s payrolls is the test. The trend changed to up on the breakout above the 50-day moving average and buyers built a support base over the past month that gives the rally a foundation. But a strong jobs report with firm wages puts Kashkari’s case back in front of the committee and gold has to hold its breakout levels against a firming dollar and rising yields. A soft print keeps the pressure off and gives the rally room to work toward the next resistance cluster.
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Gold sees early gains ease but buyers stay in a good spot in second half of the weekEquities take a step back as investors can't shake off AI spending concernsS&P 500 soars to record highs as geopolitical risks ease; focus shifts to US CPI dataThe dollar's next move hinges on inflation, while the yen waits for the BoJUS-based employers announce fewest job cuts in two years in JulyGerman construction activity continues to struggle at the start of Q3UK construction slump eases in July amid rebound in client demandMarkets:
WTI crude oil up 0.8% to $75.80USD leads, CHF lags on the dayGold up 0.2% to $4,255S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures down 0.4%US 10-year yields up 2.6 bps to 4.64%Bitcoin down 0.3% to $64,565It was a session where markets are taking a bit of a breather in not really chasing any moves too much.
The jump higher in gold and tech selloff yesterday is still reverberating, and market players are gathering their steps again in approaching the second half of the week.
Without any fresh developments on the US-Iran conflict, there wasn't much else to work with on the session. As such, the focus and attention now shifts to the US non-farm payrolls tomorrow.
Gold remains in the spotlight after early buying in Asia saw price run to a high of $4,303 before settling to $4,255 now - still up 0.2% on the day.
Meanwhile, oil prices are also keeping a little higher with WTI crude up 0.8% to $75.80 amid a more cautious mood surrounding the situation in the Middle East.
In other markets, the dollar was not up to much as currency traders continue to be sidelined in trying to figure out their next steps after the USD/JPY joint intervention. The dollar is keeping steadier today with EUR/USD down 0.1% to 1.1540 and USD/JPY up 0.1% to 157.90 currently.
And following the tech selloff yesterday led by SpaceX, Nasdaq futures are once again down today by 0.4%. Dow futures are once again keeping higher and that is seeing S&P 500 futures hold a slender 0.1% gain ahead of the open. All eyes will be on how tech shares fare next after some heavy bleeding in Asia with the KOSPI closing over 4% lower.
Besides that, 10-year Treasury yields are seen nudging back up a little by 3 bps to 4.64% and that will keep broader markets in check so as to not get all too optimistic in the grand scheme of things.
It's on to the US weekly jobless claims next before we move on to a full countdown mode ahead of the non-farm payrolls tomorrow.
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight a sharp Gold rally of more than 4%, with prices moving closer to $4,300/oz as optimism grows that a US-Iran agreement and lower energy prices will ease inflation. A softer Dollar, reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening expectations and ongoing Chinese investment demand are seen as key supports for bullion in the current environment.
Bullion buoyed by energy and Fed hopes"Gold rallied more than 4% on Wednesday. The strength has continued this morning, with the market moving closer to $4,300/oz amid growing optimism that a US-Iran agreement will ease inflation. A softer US dollar and rising expectations for lower US interest rates provided support for bullion."
"The market is increasingly focusing on the disinflationary implications of lower energy prices. Expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have eased, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets such as gold. Continued investment demand from China has also helped underpin the market."
"Gold is likely to take its cues from developments in US-Iran negotiations and shifts in Fed expectations. While geopolitical risk premiums may continue to fade, lower oil prices, a weaker dollar and potentially a more dovish-than-expected rates environment should remain supportive for bullion."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Euro took advantage on the Intervention with the Yen to test the downtrend as we see from the chart, which in return pushed for a correction
A trading zone between 1.1435 and 1.1560 could hold prices until one of the boundaries break.
Above 1.1560 could open the door towards 1.1685 and 1.1795.
Below 1.1435 more of a drop toward 1.1320 and 1.1210 is likely.
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 1.435-80 1.1560 LEVEL2 1.1320 1.1685 LEVEL3 1.1210 1.1795 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
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The Yen gave back some of its recent advance that was triggered by US and Japanese intervention.
As we see over the chart, we could see wide range of trading, first between 155.00 and the resistance of 158.05, as the market demands a rebound.
As long as the market remains below 160.85, the drop scenario could return.
When the Bank of Japan began the Intervention, the peak was around 163.97 which could sustain as resistance.
If the Yen retreats again, traders could expect another Intervention.
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 155.00 158.05 LEVEL2 152.10-30 160.85 LEVEL3 145.00 163.80 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Gold managed to break the triangle formation above 4166 where managed to rally yesterday toward target 4200-20 while managed to add more advance 4300
As we see over the chart, market facing support zone at 4200-20 where as long as market holding trades above it another advance toward 4330 and above will be expected
Below 4200 more drop to test 4150-60 may hit the market which in turn may activate the advance again
Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates its recent gains on Thursday after briefly climbing above $4,300 as the US Dollar (USD) steadies while traders await confirmation of a possible Iran-Oman agreement on the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,270, up 0.53% on the day.
The precious metal rallied a little over 4% on Wednesday, hitting its highest level in seven weeks after Iran said it had reached an understanding with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait. Tehran added that a joint statement containing the main points of the agreement was in the final stages of drafting.
Oil prices stay under pressure, creating a supportive backdrop for bullion. A sustained decline in energy prices would ease inflation concerns and reduce pressure on major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), to raise interest rates. Higher borrowing costs generally weigh on Gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Despite the recent decline, Oil prices still carry a significant geopolitical risk premium as tensions in the Middle East persist. Iran says the proposed agreement with Oman would establish only a temporary shipping route and would not amount to a full reopening of the Strait. Yemen’s Houthis also claim to have attacked two Saudi oil tankers, while Tehran denies holding talks with the United States, saying its discussions with Oman are strictly bilateral.
Against this backdrop, Gold struggles to extend its gains while inflation above the Fed’s 2% target keeps expectations of tighter monetary policy alive. Still, lower energy prices and softer US labour-market data have prompted traders to scale back bets on a September Fed rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 52.9% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) increase in September, down from 63.4% a week earlier.
Attention now turns to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. According to TD Securities, July ADP employment data "surprised to the downside, moderating to 44k (TD: 50k, cons: 65k)." Analysts highlight that "both the monthly and weekly ADP data have moderated this summer after a strong start to the year," and they anticipate that "a similar trend is likely to occur with NFP job gains."
Technical analysis: Buyers regain control above 50-day SMA, $4,300 in focus
XAU/USD is recovering above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,157, but remains capped beneath the 100- and 200-day SMAs, keeping the broader tone neutral with a slight topside constraint.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 on the daily chart leans toward bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory with the line above the signal and an expanding positive histogram, which together suggest improving upside pressure despite the overhead moving-average barrier.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal level around $4,300, ahead of the 100-day SMA at $4,393, with the 200-day SMA at $4,493 acting as a more distant cap.
On the downside, immediate support is provided by the reclaimed 50-day SMA near $4,157, with a deeper structural floor at the prior horizontal support around $4,000, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if a pullback develops.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.08%0.03%0.11%-0.11%0.25%0.12%0.31%EUR-0.08%-0.06%0.04%-0.18%0.13%0.05%0.23%GBP-0.03%0.06%0.09%-0.13%0.20%0.09%0.29%JPY-0.11%-0.04%-0.09%-0.22%0.13%0.02%0.22%CAD0.11%0.18%0.13%0.22%0.35%0.25%0.44%AUD-0.25%-0.13%-0.20%-0.13%-0.35%-0.09%0.09%NZD-0.12%-0.05%-0.09%-0.02%-0.25%0.09%0.22%CHF-0.31%-0.23%-0.29%-0.22%-0.44%-0.09%-0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Silver price (XAG/USD) holds onto two-day gains at around $62.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal trades firmly amid hopes of a further decline in oil prices.
In the European trade, the WTI Oil price trades 0.9% higher at around $75, but is closer to its three-week low of $73.51 posted on Wednesday.
Lower oil prices keep global inflation expectations in check, a scenario that diminishes fears of interest rate hikes by central banks. Such a case bodes well for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
Brent holds below $80 as hopes build for US–Iran deal on Strait of HormuzAnalysts at ING highlight that "ICE Brent continues to trade below $80/bbl as the market pins its hopes on a deal between the United States (US) and Iran" that would "resume energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz." They note that Iran has "signalled progress toward this goal," having announced it has reached "an agreement with Oman on new shipping arrangements for the strait," with "a joint statement on the deal now being prepared," reinforcing market expectations of a potential easing in supply-route tensions.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday. Investors will pay close attention to the official employment data, as its impact is likely to be significant on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations, given than the central bank has stopped providing forward guidance.
ADP slowdown reinforces TD Securities view of moderating US job gainsAccording to TD Securities, July ADP employment data "surprised to the downside, moderating to 44k (TD: 50k, cons: 65k)," reinforcing their view that job growth is cooling after a strong start to the year. The bank stresses that it does "not put much weight on ADP when it comes to m/m moves in NFP," but notes that "the trend in the data is in line with what we are expecting." They highlight that "both the monthly and weekly ADP data have moderated this summer," and judge that "a similar trend is likely to occur with NFP job gains," consistent with their expectation of softer official payrolls prints ahead.
Silver Technical Analysis
XAG/USD trades at around $61.85, holding a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.43. The metal has reclaimed higher ground after its recent pullback, and the positioning over the short-term EMA suggests underlying demand remains in place.
Momentum, as reflected by the Relative Strength Index (14) at 55.71, stays in mildly positive territory, hinting that buyers retain the upper hand while avoiding overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 20-day EMA at $59.43, where a break would signal fading bullish pressure and force a return to the July 17 low at $54.77. Looking up, the July high at $63.28 is the key hurdle for the Silver price; above that, it could extend the advance towards the June 22 high at $67.17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates gains after appreciating nearly $200 this week, buoyed by lower US Treasury yields as traders dial down bets of immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. The precious metal trades at $4,270 at the time of writing, after pulling back from $4,300 earlier on Thursday, with bulls aiming for mid-June highs in the $4,380 area.
Analysts at MUFG note that political interference is increasingly being priced into the Dollar. They highlight Wall Street Journal reporting that President Trump has spoken to Fed Chair Warsh “repeatedly” since he took over at the Fed, with “bursts” of calls “several times in a stretch of days, which, in their opinion, “will only reinforce the impression of greater political influence undermining Fed independence.”
Technical Analysis: Gold confirms a trend shift
XAU/USD trades at $4,230, holding gains after breaking above a descending triangle, which suggests that the precious metal is heading through a bullish reversal. Momentum indicators in 4-hour charts show overstretched conditions, but dips are likely to find buyers. Relative Strength Index (14) is entrenched in overbought territory around 77, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) gauge remains firmly positive, which warns about a corrective pause.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at session highs in the $4,300, ahead of the June 17 high, around $4,380. Further up, the early June highs,m above $4,500, would come into focus.
Bearish reversals, on the other hand, are likely to be tested at previous highs around $4,200 (June 22, July 6 highs) ahead of the broken trendline resistance, now around $4,130 and Monday's low, near $4,020.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $62.01 per troy ounce, broadly unchanged 0.06% from the $62.05 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 12.77% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.06 on Thursday, up from 68.46 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Pound-Dollar could extend its rally if Friday's US payrolls disappoint, while improving risk sentiment continues to weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar. The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened on Wednesday as softer US economic data and improving market sentiment reduced demand for the US Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3479, up approximately 0.2% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.34616 (+0.08%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.154449 (+0.11%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 157.69239 (-0.02%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) weakened as improving market sentiment reduced demand for the safe-haven currency.
Investor confidence improved amid growing optimism that the US, Iran and Oman were moving closer to an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with reports suggesting a deal could be announced within days.
The Greenback also came under additional pressure following another disappointing batch of US economic data.
The latest ADP employment report showed private-sector payrolls increased by just 44,000 in July, reinforcing expectations that Friday's non-farm payrolls report could also disappoint.
This was followed by a weaker-than-expected ISM services PMI, which suggested activity across the US services sector is beginning to lose momentum after a prolonged period of resilience.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) edged higher after revised business survey data pointed to stronger-than-expected activity across the UK economy.
S&P Global's final services PMI for July was revised above the preliminary estimate, confirming a solid rebound in Britain's dominant services sector after June's slowdown.
The stronger survey encouraged investors to believe a more resilient private sector could give the Bank of England greater flexibility to tighten monetary policy later this year if required.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Looming US Payrolls Report to Drive the Next Move? Looking ahead, trading in the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate may become increasingly subdued as investors await Friday's US non-farm payrolls report.
The employment figures are expected to play a crucial role in shaping Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
Another weak labour market report could further reduce expectations for a September rate hike and place additional pressure on the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, with little UK economic data scheduled before the weekend, Sterling is likely to take its lead from broader market sentiment, with an improving risk backdrop potentially offering further support.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold rose to 4,300 USD per ounce on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains. The metal has advanced nearly 6% since the start of the week, supported by a partial agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has weighed on oil prices and eased concerns over inflation and further rate hikes.
Iran and Oman agreed to establish a shipping corridor through the strait, raising expectations of a recovery in energy supplies from the Middle East. Against this backdrop, markets have scaled back expectations for Fed tightening, now pricing in only one rate hike before the end of the year, down from two a week ago.
Additional support for gold came from weak ADP employment data. In July, the US private sector added just 44,000 jobs – the lowest since January and well below the 70,000 forecast – adding to signs of a cooling labour market and putting pressure on the dollar.
At the same time, Federal Reserve official Lisa Cook reiterated her readiness to support a rate hike if inflation does not slow, warning that the regulator may not be able to delay action for long to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
Technical analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around the 4,102 USD level and, following an upside breakout, moved higher to 4,300 USD. A consolidation range is now forming below this level. A move lower towards 4,100 USD is expected next. The MACD indicator signals the early stages of bearish momentum, with its signal line above the centre line and turning downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market broke below the 4,272 USD level and moved lower to 4,244 USD, followed by a correction to 4,272 USD. A wide consolidation range is forming around this level. A continuation of the downward move to 4,100 USD is expected. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionGold has rallied for a fourth consecutive day, driven by a partial agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and weaker-than-expected US labour market data. The deal has weighed on oil prices and reduced inflation concerns, prompting markets to scale back expectations for Fed tightening from two rate hikes to just one. Meanwhile, weak ADP employment data added to signs of a cooling US economy, weighing on the dollar. However, Fed official Lisa Cook’s hawkish comments served as a reminder that further tightening remains possible if inflation proves persistent. Technically, gold may see a pullback towards 4,100 USD in the near term, with further direction likely to depend on US economic data and geopolitical developments.
Gold rose to 4,300 USD per ounce on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains. The metal has advanced nearly 6% since the start of the week, supported by a partial agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has weighed on oil prices and eased concerns over inflation and further rate hikes.
Iran and Oman agreed to establish a shipping corridor through the strait, raising expectations of a recovery in energy supplies from the Middle East. Against this backdrop, markets have scaled back expectations for Fed tightening, now pricing in only one rate hike before the end of the year, down from two a week ago.
Additional support for gold came from weak ADP employment data. In July, the US private sector added just 44,000 jobs – the lowest since January and well below the 70,000 forecast – adding to signs of a cooling labour market and putting pressure on the dollar.
At the same time, Federal Reserve official Lisa Cook reiterated her readiness to support a rate hike if inflation does not slow, warning that the regulator may not be able to delay action for long to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around the 4,102 USD level and, following an upside breakout, moved higher to 4,300 USD. A consolidation range is now forming below this level. A move lower towards 4,100 USD is expected next. The MACD indicator signals the early stages of bearish momentum, with its signal line above the centre line and turning downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market broke below the 4,272 USD level and moved lower to 4,244 USD, followed by a correction to 4,272 USD. A wide consolidation range is forming around this level. A continuation of the downward move to 4,100 USD is expected. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion Gold has rallied for a fourth consecutive day, driven by a partial agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and weaker-than-expected US labour market data. The deal has weighed on oil prices and reduced inflation concerns, prompting markets to scale back expectations for Fed tightening from two rate hikes to just one. Meanwhile, weak ADP employment data added to signs of a cooling US economy, weighing on the dollar. However, Fed official Lisa Cook’s hawkish comments served as a reminder that further tightening remains possible if inflation proves persistent. Technically, gold may see a pullback towards 4,100 USD in the near term, with further direction likely to depend on US economic data and geopolitical developments.
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Gold’s bulls reawakenGold’s rally maybe have been the most sensational movement in the markets yesterday. The easing of market expectations for the Fed to tighten its monetary policy in combination with hopes for the Straits in Hormuz to reopen and a slight weakening of the USD in the FX market provided the necessary thrust for gold’s price to escape the inactivity last month’s inactivity. Should we see market worries for inflationary pressures in the US economy easing, given also Fed Chair Warsh’s mixed messaging, we may see gold’s price gaining further.
USD stabilises ahead of the US employment reportThe USD seems to stabilise ahead of the release of July’s US employment report tomorrow. Financial data releases were somewhat disappointing weighing, on the USD. The ADP national employment figure for July dropped more than expected, possibly negatively predisposing the markets for the NFP figure tomorrow. Furthermore, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure for July undershoot market expectations. On the contrary the Canadian Dollar was on the rise, with Loonie traders also preparing for the simultaneous release of Canada’s July employment data with the US employment data for the same month, tomorrow.
Mixed signals from US stock marketsUS equities sent mixed signals yesterday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq halting the rise, while Dow Jones’ bulls slowed down yet are still pushing to new record high levels. The tech sector remain in the epicenter of attention yet should the positive market sentiment be renewed, we may see the bullish tendencies restart across US equities. Also, the earnings season is still on and today we note Softbank’s and Airbnb’s reports.
Oil prices stabilise for nowOil prices tended to stabilise yesterday signalling some doubts about the prospects of a US-Iranian deal for the Straits of Hormuz. Reports note that the proposed deal, would allow Iran to control shipping entering the Straits, while US President Trump insisted that a deal is imminent. Further signs of a possible deal could weigh on oil prices even more, as market worries for the supply side of the oil market could be alleviated further.
Other highlights for todayToday we get Sweden’s preliminary CPI rates for July, Euro Zone’s and the UK’s Construction PMI figures also for July, Euro Zone’s retail sales for June, the US weekly initial jobless claims and the Czech Republic’s CNB interest rate decision. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get Japan’s June Household spending and China’s July trade data, while San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks.
Charts to keep an eye outXAU/USD rallied yesterday breaking the 4205 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. The upward movement was accompanied by an enhancement of the bullish market sentiment, given the rise of the RSI indicator, which allows us to adopt a bullish outlook for the precious metal’s price. Should the bulls maintain control as expected we may see the index aiming if not breaking the 4550 (R1) resistance level. Should the bears to take over, we may see gold’s price breaking the 4205 (S1) support line and continue lower aiming if not breaking the 3960 (S2) support level.
Nasdaq hit a ceiling at the 29675 (R1) resistance line yesterday and correcting slightly lower during today’s Asian session. The RSI remains just above the reading of 50 implying a bullish predisposition of the market for the index. Given that the index has interrupted its upward movement, we adopt a sideways motion bias for now, yet warn of a possible renewal of the index’s bullish tendencies. Should the bulls take over, Nasdaq may break the 29675 (R1) resistance level and start aiming for the 30770 (R2) resistance level, which marks and all Time high for the index. Should the bears take over, we may see the index aiming if not breaking the 28200 (S1) support line.
The Euro (EUR) nudges lower against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, following a three-day rally. The EUR/GBP remains capped below the late-July top of 0.8586, trading at 0.8575 at the time of writing, yet with downside attempts subdued so far.
Eurozone data was supportive on Thursday, as German Factory Orders beat expectations with a 3.1% increase in June, largely exceeding the 0.3% market forecast, and a downwardly revised 0.3% reading in May.
Regarding the Pound, FX strategists at Rabobank argue that “a re-pricing in policy expectations towards steady policy from the BoE this year combined with the prospect of nervousness ahead of the October budget suggests scope for downside pressure on the pound as the summer draws to a close.”
In this context, Rabobank continues to see value in the cross, stating that “we favour buying EUR/GBP on dips to the 0.8550 area,” and adding that “a break above the recent high in the 0.8588 region could increase upside potential.”
Technical Analysis: Failure to break 0.8586 might encourage bears
The technical picture shows the EUR/GBP pair trading at 0.8576, with momentum indicators highlighting weaker bullish traction. The Relative Strength Index (14) is trending towards the 50 midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers around zero, suggesting that bullish momentum is present but tentative.
Bulls need to break the mentioned 0.8586 resistance area level (July 29, 30 highs) to confirm the positive trend and target late June lows at the 0.8605 area. Failure to do so might give fresh hopes for bears to break the August 4 and 5 lows in the 0.8560-0.8565 area and aim for the July 31 low, near 0.8540, which will be the neckline of a double top pattern.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8548, followed by additional underlying demand at 0.8529 and 0.8510, with deeper structural levels resting at 0.8419 and 0.8327. On the topside, initial resistance aligns at 0.8587, ahead of 0.8606; a sustained break above these caps would open the way toward 0.8730 and 0.8741, with higher hurdles at 0.8790 and 0.8863 likely to limit any extended advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.11%0.04%0.06%0.00%0.27%0.20%0.17%EUR-0.11%-0.06%-0.04%-0.10%0.15%0.10%0.06%GBP-0.04%0.06%0.02%-0.04%0.21%0.14%0.13%JPY-0.06%0.04%-0.02%-0.06%0.20%0.14%0.13%CAD-0.00%0.10%0.04%0.06%0.26%0.21%0.19%AUD-0.27%-0.15%-0.21%-0.20%-0.26%-0.05%-0.09%NZD-0.20%-0.10%-0.14%-0.14%-0.21%0.05%0.00%CHF-0.17%-0.06%-0.13%-0.13%-0.19%0.09%-0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
OCBC’s Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight a sharp rebound in Gold as easing Middle East tensions weighed on Oil and US Treasury yields, softening the US Dollar. Technical buying and short covering accelerated once resistance broke, while central bank demand from the Bank of Korea added support. Near-term momentum is mildly bullish, with key resistance at 4333 and 4393 and support at 4160 and 4077.
Gold breakout on softer yields"Gold rose sharply overnight as easing Middle East tensions drove oil prices lower while US Treasury yields and USD eased. Market expectations for Fed to hike in Sep has eased. About 55% probability priced (vs. 66% a week ago). The sharp move in gold accelerated after prices cleared recent resistance, triggering technical buying and short covering."
"Gold’s strength suggests investors are increasingly pricing a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, a normalisation of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, lower real interest rates and a softer USD."
"News that the Bank of Korea is preparing to purchase domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years and that they had recently begun buying gold ETF may also have provided a modest sentiment boost, although the scale and timing of its purchases remain unclear."
"Near-term momentum has improved, with Friday’s upcoming US payrolls report now key to whether the decline in yields, USD and gold’s breakout can be sustained."
"Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI rose to near overbought conditions. Resistance at 4333 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4393 (100 DMA). Support at 4160 (50 DMA), 4077 (21 DMA)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The greenback fell further as traders continue to digest the ongoing peace negotiations in the Middle East.
The pair progressed lower, breaking through the 1.4050 level, ensuring that the bear run remained intact. A slide below the immediate support at 1.4000 could indicate more sellers trading the pair. 1.4080 is a critical top to break to develop a sharp turnaround, and move towards the recent top at 1.4120. NZDUSD looks for reprieve
The US dollar is attempting to gain some traction against the Kiwi as a choppy consolidation continues.
The pair previously met stiff selling pressure at the psychological level of 0.5900 as bulls closed some profits. However, more buyers could join the game as the RSI’s pressured condition could lead to a brief pullback. 0.5840 is an important support, and its breach could begin a decline in the medium-term to test 0.5780. UK 100(FTSE) continues chopping grind
The UK 100(FTSE), along with most global equities, found relief in sustained signs of peace deals.
The index remains heightened as energy prices are expected to fall further. A combination of short-covering and buying-the-dips has helped the price recover some lost ground. The first real test comes at the recent false spike towards 11000, and a bullish breakout would attract those who are still indecisive. Otherwise, the index could fall back towards 10840 and lower.
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Key Points:Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report remains the week's biggest catalyst for FX markets.Traders are closely watching labor market data for clues on the Fed's September policy outlook.EUR/USD is testing long-term trendline resistance after recent gains.GBP/USD remains above key moving averages but needs a break above $1.3507 to extend higher.DXY is testing major trendline support below 100.00, with payrolls likely to determine the next move.
US Dollar News: Payrolls Countdown and Global Central Banks Shape FX Outlook The U.S. dollar’s value continues to fluctuate in anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the final significant market mover before all the markets take another look at the Federal Reserve’s overall policy outlook. Focused on NFP, is the most derived initial assessment of the potential impact on U.S. labor markets. A positive U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, coupled with positive detailed U.S. labor market employment data, will reinforce the viewpoint that the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt a more accommodating monetary policy stance later this year. Based on the latest Reuters real-time reporting, markets are now primarily focused on U.S. labor market data after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
The U.S. dollar is stabilizing following Friday’s European Central Bank meeting in which it kept its main interest rate on overnight deposits at 2.25%, and repeated its data-dependent stance. Investors are now waiting on German industrial production and eurozone retail sales statistics, all of which will give insight into the potential for a recovery in domestic demand within eurozone countries, particularly in light of the first part of the year being subdued. In their recent meetings, various policymakers have continued to underline the fact that inflation is approaching the European Central Bank’s target of 2% and that further tightening of eurozone monetary policy appears to be warranted; although, at this juncture still may be upside risks to be concerned with.
Sterling is digesting last week’s Bank of England decision. Bank Rate was left at 3.75%. Investors are anxious to see what new data will show about the UK economy. In the lead up to this data, investors will be studying data related to labor market activity, consumer spending, and business activity, to get insight on whether easing inflation is sustainable without a sharper slowdown in growth. Alongside the collection of domestic indicators, early Friday’s U.S. payrolls report will remain the major driving force behind foreign exchange sentiment for the week ahead.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Dollar Index Tests Trendline Support Below 100.00 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues dropping, currently trading at 99.76. It has been harshly rejected by 101.52, and has dropped below the psychological 100.00 zone and is currently challenging a key ascending trendline that can be found at 99.42. The index currently sits below the 50-day EMA ($100.38) while just holding above the 100-day EMA ($99.92), reflecting diminishing bullish sentiments. RSI has fallen to 36, moving into oversold territory, indicating that downside price momentum is losing speed.
A decisive break below 99.42 would expose 98.91 and 98.27, reinforcing a bearish outlook. However, if bears defend the trendline, the DXY could stage a recovery toward 100.36 and 100.82. For now, the larger bias remains cautiously bearish while the index trades below 100.00.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Consolidates After Strong Recovery Toward $1.3500 GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The GBP/USD is trading around $1.3459, holding within a consolidation range after rebounding sharply from $1.3274. The pair remains above both the 50-Day EMA ($1.3421) and the 100-Day EMA ($1.3400), suggesting the medium-term trend continues to favor buyers. Price is currently hovering near the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at $1.3452, while RSI near 57 points to steady but moderating bullish momentum.
A breakout above $1.3507 would reinforce the bullish structure and expose $1.3559. On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.3417, followed by $1.3391 and $1.3363. Holding above the moving averages keeps the recovery intact, although a decisive move above $1.3507 is needed to confirm the next leg higher.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Bulls Challenge Major Trendline Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The EUR/USD pair, on the other hand, has been trying to rebound from its July base, and has been able to move past the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1501. For the time being, the EUR/USD pair is trying to test a key descending trendline near 1.1559, while trading comfortably above the 50-day EMA ($1.1490) and holding marginally beneath the 100-day EMA ($1.1543). RSI has strengthened to 62, confirming improving bullish momentum.
It must be noted, however, that the EUR/USD pair is still trading below the 1.1500 level. A sustained break below this level would expose the crucial support zone at the 1.1470 level. The critical descending trendline comes into the picture at the 1.1450 level. As long as the EUR/USD pair remains comfortably above the critical descending trendline, around the 1.1450 level, the bias is expected to shift to a bullish bias for the pair.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3469 after briefly touching 1.3486, with short-term momentum only slightly firmer. The pair is expected to trade in a higher 1.3445–1.3495 range rather than embark on a strong rally. Over 1–3 weeks, there is still limited scope for a move toward 1.3555 as long as support at 1.3410 holds.
Pound holds gains within tight band"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we expected GBP to “consolidate between 1.3425 and 1.3470.” However, GBP edged higher to 1.3486 before closing slightly higher at 1.3469 (+0.12%). While upward momentum has picked up slightly, it is more likely to result in GBP trading within a higher range of 1.3445/1.3495 rather than signaling the start of a sustained advance."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.3485), we indicated that “while strong momentum suggests further upside, it remains to be seen whether GBP can break and hold above the significant resistance at 1.3555.” Yesterday (05 Aug, spot at 1.3450), we indicated that “upward momentum has since eased, but as long as 1.3385 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached, there is still a chance, albeit not a high one, for GBP to rise toward 1.3555.” We continue to hold the same view, but we are revising the ‘strong support’ level to 1.3410 from 1.3385."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The USD/CHF pair attracts some buyers near the 0.8060 region on Thursday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak and trade around the 0.8080-0.8085 region during the first half of the European session, up nearly 0.15% for the day.
From a technical perspective, the move up along an upward-sloping channel points to a well-established bullish trend. Adding to this, the recent breakout above the 0.8000 psychological mark supports prospects for a further near-term appreciation of the USD/CHF pair. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) sits near a neutral 48.7, hinting at balanced momentum.
Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, which only mildly tempers the constructive tone. Nevertheless, the setup suggests room for further gains before encountering a more significant cap. The USD/CHF pair is placed closer to the middle of the structure, with overhead supply defined by the channel top at 0.8219,
A daily close above this level would signal an acceleration of the uptrend and open the way to fresh highs within the broader bullish channel environment. On the downside, initial demand is located at the channel bottom around 0.7936, where a break would expose deeper support at the prior structural base near 0.7692 and would weaken the current bullish narrative.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CHF daily chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.07%0.08%0.06%0.02%0.29%0.25%0.14%EUR-0.07%0.00%0.00%-0.05%0.19%0.19%0.07%GBP-0.08%-0.00%0.00%-0.05%0.19%0.17%0.08%JPY-0.06%0.00%0.00%-0.04%0.21%0.20%0.09%CAD-0.02%0.05%0.05%0.04%0.26%0.25%0.12%AUD-0.29%-0.19%-0.19%-0.21%-0.26%-0.00%-0.12%NZD-0.25%-0.19%-0.17%-0.20%-0.25%0.00%-0.08%CHF-0.14%-0.07%-0.08%-0.09%-0.12%0.12%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The British Pound (GBP) trades marginally lower at around 1.3460 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair is expected to trade sideways as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday.
US payrolls seen posting modest July gain as Deutsche Bank flags participation risksEconomists at Deutsche Bank expect Friday’s July payrolls report to show a further, if modest, improvement in hiring. They look for "employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading".
On the labor market’s slack, Deutsche Bank forecasts that "the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%, although risks are skewed towards a rounding up to 4.3% if labor force participation rebounds after last month’s sharp decline." Wage and hours data are expected to be steady, with "average hourly earnings… expected to increase by +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from June, while average hours worked are forecast to hold at 34.3 hours."
Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data as it will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Ahead of the US NFP data for July, the ADP Employment Change data remained weaker-than-projected. On Wednesday, the ADP reported that the private sector created 44K jobs in July, fewer than estimates of 70K and the prior release of 98K.
Technical Analysis
GBP/USD trades at around 1.3460, keeping a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3404, but struggles to achieve a decisive breakout of the downward-sloping border of the Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) at around 1.3471.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 shows constructive but not overextended momentum, suggesting scope for further gains as long as price stays supported on dips above the EMA.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the former trend line break price at 1.3471, and a decisive move above this barrier would open the way for a continuation of the recent upside. Looking up, the July 15 high at 1.3558 is the key hurdle. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 1.3404, followed by the July 28 low at 1.3274.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Gold – Charta Gold is currently consolidating at around $4,254, having exploded higher during a strong bull rally that took XAU/USD over the descending trendline and the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at $4,237. The Bulls pushed prices even closer to the recent swing high prices around $4,305, which confirmed strong Bullish momentum as XAU/USD continued its strong technical trend over the 50 EMA ($4,107) and the 100 EMA ($4,091).
But amid all that, a strong Bull trend has been very clearly established as RSI has climbed strong to over 71, confirming overbought conditions and a strong likelihood of short-term profit taking. Support is currently at $4,237, $4,196 and $4,162. Gold is expected to hold above the breakout zone in order to maintain the strong Bull trend, and if gold goes above
Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis: Silver Retreats After Rally but Bulls Stay in Control Above $61.42
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Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates gains in the $61.70 area after being rejected ahead of $63.00. The pair is trimming gains on Thursday, after following a nearly 7% rally over the last two days, but downside attempts remain limited so far, as lower Oil prices and a weak US Dollar keep providing support.
US macroeconomic data released earlier this week has failed to impress, raising fears about a poor Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday and prompting traders to scale back hopes of a Federal Reserve rare hike in September. US Treasury yields have dropped, with the yield of the benchmark 10-year note shedding about 10 basis points from last week's highs, while the 2-year yield, closely related to monetary policy expectations 18 basis points below July's peak. Lower yields tend to drive investors towards the yieldless precious metals.
Technical Analysis: The immediate trend remains bullish while above $60.70
XAG/USD trades at $61.72, showing a corrective reaction, as the last two days' rally was looking overextended. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is pulling back from overbought levels but remains in bullish territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is above zero, all in all showing that buyers retain control.
The near-term bias remains bullish while above a previous resistance at the $60.70-$60.95 area, which capped bulls several times in July. Further down, Wednesday's low, at $59.40, might provide some support ahead of the weekly low, near $56.50.
On the upside, bulls are likely to struggle at July's peak, near $63.30. Further up, the next target is the June 22 high, just above $67.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver breakout above the June to August range is riding on fresh optimism over a potential US-Iran deal, though the move is not yet confirmed.
Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, breaks down the technical picture for silver and the geopolitical driver behind the move.
Hilal works through what a sustained hold above former resistance would take to confirm the breakout, and where silver could find support if the US-Iran talks break down. A longer six-month chart adds the other side of the story, where a shooting star pattern and a golden-ratio Fibonacci retracement mark a historic confluence zone.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by Forex.com.
The USD/JPY pair holds onto a three-day recovery move near 157.80 during the European trading session on Thursday. The pair recovers as the Japanese Yen (JPY) faced profit-booking after a juggernaut jump last week, following the United States (US)-Japan joint intervention to counter excessive volatility and disorderly movements in the Japanese yen in recent months.
Financial markets expect the Japanese currency won't be able to sustain US-Japan joint intervention-driven strength unless it gets boost from structural changes in the domestic economy.
Yen positioning stabilizes as BoJ follow-through seen key to renewed inflowsAnalysts at BNY Mellon argue that recent “coordinated intervention has bought time but hasn’t materially increased foreign JPY holdings.” They note that “investors remain net long JPY, but exposure is well below H1 2026 levels and won’t rebuild without credible domestic follow-through: Bank of Japan (BOJ) tightening, fiscal consolidation and structural reform.” In their view, the current allocation picture is uneven across asset classes, with “Japanese equities remain largely passive and under-supported, while Japanese government bonds (JGBs) are attracting the clearest marginal demand.”
Meanwhile, hopes of US-Japan intervention again are high, as Japan Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama confirmed earlier this week that Japan “won't hesitate to carry out more forex intervention with the US”.
On the US Dollar (USD) front, investors shift their focus to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
USD/JPY trades at around157.83, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot remains below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 160.55. The pair has retreated from recent highs, and the EMA overhead suggests prices are still capped despite the latest bounce attempt, pointing to a market that is correcting rather than trending higher.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 160.55, which acts as the primary barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to alleviate downside pressure. On the downside, the key support level for the pair is the two-month low of 155.23; below this, the pair would find next support near the February 23 low at around 154.00
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD extended modest gains to close at 1.1551, with mild upward momentum still intact. Intraday, the pair may test 1.1565, though a move to 1.1600 is seen as unlikely without stronger momentum. On a 1–3 week horizon, a sustained rise requires a daily close above 1.1565 while holding above 1.1495 support.
Euro's grind higher faces key hurdles"24-HOUR VIEW: Following Tuesday’s price action, we noted yesterday that “there has been a slight uptick in upward momentum, and EUR may edge higher.” However, we pointed out that “given the mild upward momentum, any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.1565.” We were not wrong, as EUR edged to a high of 1.1559 before settling at 1.1551 (+0.19%). The mild upward pressure remains intact. Today, there is a chance for EUR to break above 1.1565, but it remains to be seen whether it can maintain a foothold above this level. Based on the prevailing momentum, the major resistance at 1.1600 is highly unlikely to come into view. On the downside, a breach of 1.1530 (minor support is at 1.1540) would mean that the current mild upward pressure has faded."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” While EUR edged to a high of 1.1559 yesterday, there has been no significant increase in upward momentum. In other words, EUR still must close above 1.1565 before further sustained rises can be expected. The odds of EUR closing above 1.1565 will remain intact as long as it holds above the ‘strong support’ at 1.1495 (level was at 1.1470 yesterday)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Pound-New Zealand Dollar could extend its recovery if weaker New Zealand labour market data continues to dampen RBNZ rate expectations, although improving risk sentiment may support the Kiwi. The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate rebounded from a two-month low on Wednesday after weaker-than-expected New Zealand employment figures weighed on the ‘Kiwi’.
At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading around NZ$2.2944, up approximately 0.5% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.289981 (0.00%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.963768 (+0.02%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.587895 (+0.09%)
DAILY RECAP:
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retreated during Wednesday's Asian session after weaker-than-expected labour market data prompted investors to reassess expectations for further Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate hikes.
Official figures showed New Zealand's unemployment rate climbed to 5.6% in the second quarter, its highest level in more than a decade and above forecasts for a rise to 5.4%.
The report also showed wage growth remained subdued, suggesting underlying domestic inflation pressures may be easing.
The figures came only weeks after stronger-than-expected inflation data had encouraged speculation that the RBNZ could continue tightening monetary policy.
However, the deterioration in employment conditions prompted investors to scale back some of those hawkish expectations, leaving the ‘Kiwi’ under pressure despite a broader improvement in risk appetite following renewed optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) strengthened following the publication of the UK's latest services PMI.
July's final reading was revised higher from the preliminary estimate, confirming the UK's dominant services sector rebounded strongly after June's slowdown.
The stronger survey reinforced expectations that the UK economy remains resilient, potentially allowing the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the option of further policy tightening on the table later in 2026.
Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: Improving Risk Appetite to Underpin the Kiwi? Looking ahead, the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate may struggle to build on Wednesday's gains if market sentiment continues to improve.
Any agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could encourage investors back into risk-sensitive assets and help the New Zealand Dollar recover.
Conversely, renewed geopolitical tensions or fresh US threats towards Iran could weigh on risk appetite and provide further support for GBP/NZD.
With little UK economic data scheduled through the remainder of the week, Sterling may struggle to establish a strong independent direction.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The AUD/USD pair edges lower during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from the highest level since June 17, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade just below 0.7050, though the downside potential seems limited.
Despite optimism over a potential US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the US Dollar (USD) gains some positive traction and snaps a two-day losing streak as bears await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting some pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Any meaningful decline, however, seems elusive ahead of China's Trade Balance data and the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
From a technical perspective, spot prices struggle to capitalize on the previous day's move beyond the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and fail ahead of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June decline. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays modestly positive. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index near 58 suggests constructive momentum without entering overbought conditions, hinting that dips could still attract buyers.
That said, traders might wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 50% level at 0.7070 before positioning for further gains. Against the backdrop of the recent bounce from the very important 200-day SMA, the breakout would expose the 61.8% level at 0.7120 and then the 78.6% retracement at 0.7191, ahead of the cycle high region near 0.7281.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 0.7020, with further demand emerging at the 23.6% level at 0.6958 and the 200-day SMA around 0.6920. A deeper slide toward the 0.6859 anchor would significantly weaken the current constructive tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,315.11 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,284.74 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 96,986.33 per tola from PHP 96,631.53 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,315.11
10 Grams
83,151.54
Tola
96,986.33
Troy Ounce
258,628.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 182.10 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
The EUR/JPY cross is retreating from recent highs and remains capped by these overlapping EMA barriers, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 37 suggests persistent but not extreme downside momentum after the latest pullback.
The EUR/JPY cross may retest the initial support at the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3. Further support lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could rise toward the nine-day EMA at 183.16, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.71. Further advances above these moving averages would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
Eurozone resilience tempers calls for fresh ECB tighteningStrategists at BNY Mellon highlight that recent data show “growth defies gloom,” with Europe’s latest PMIs generally surprising to the upside and pushing back against immediate stagflation fears. They argue that while this resilience is clearly welcome, it is “not a clean invitation for the ECB to tighten again,” warning that “another hike risks turning a nascent recovery into a policy-induced slowdown” for the Eurozone economy and regional assets.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.05%0.07%0.00%0.02%0.16%0.13%0.03%EUR-0.05%0.01%-0.02%-0.03%0.09%0.09%-0.02%GBP-0.07%-0.01%-0.04%-0.02%0.08%0.06%-0.02%JPY0.00%0.02%0.04%0.02%0.14%0.13%0.05%CAD-0.02%0.03%0.02%-0.02%0.13%0.12%0.03%AUD-0.16%-0.09%-0.08%-0.14%-0.13%-0.00%-0.11%NZD-0.13%-0.09%-0.06%-0.13%-0.12%0.00%-0.06%CHF-0.03%0.02%0.02%-0.05%-0.03%0.11%0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 514.84 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 512.89 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 6,004.95 per tola from SAR 5,982.25 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
514.84
10 Grams
5,148.35
Tola
6,004.95
Troy Ounce
16,012.76
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 502.92 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 501.53 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,866.34 per tola from AED 5,849.72 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
502.92
10 Grams
5,029.55
Tola
5,866.34
Troy Ounce
15,642.81
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 37,958.86 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 37,862.81 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 442,748.80 per tola from PKR 441,624.40 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
37,958.86
10 Grams
379,593.00
Tola
442,748.80
Troy Ounce
1,180,667.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 560.01 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 558.23 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,531.79 per tola from MYR 6,511.07 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
560.01
10 Grams
5,600.05
Tola
6,531.79
Troy Ounce
17,418.14
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,024.38 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,991.59 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 151,914.00 per tola from INR 151,531.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,024.38
10 Grams
130,238.40
Tola
151,914.00
Troy Ounce
405,102.70
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's blowout rally of over 4% and advances for the fourth straight session, rising to its highest level since June 18 during the Asian session on Thursday. Hopes of a potential US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz dragged crude oil prices to an over three-week low on Wednesday. Iran said on Wednesday that it is in the final stage of drafting an agreement with Oman over the strategic waterway, which could help bring an end to the five-month-old US-Iran war. This eased inflation fears and forced traders to scale back their bets for a more aggressive tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook keeps US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD) depressed, and is seen supporting the bullion.
Adding to this, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday that private-sector employment in the US grew by 40K in July, marking a notable slowdown from the 95K in the prior month and missing consensus estimates. Separately, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed the Services PMI improved a tad to 54.1 in July from 54.0 in the previous month, coming in below expectations for a reading of 54.5. Following the softer data, the probability for a September Fed rate hike eased to roughly 55% from 67%, which continues to undermine the Greenback and acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold. That said, a slew of prominent Fed officials recently warned that persistent inflation risks could necessitate further interest rate hikes.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated that inflation remains too high and she is prepared to act by raising interest rates if disinflation stalls, warning that the central bank cannot afford to wait indefinitely if price pressures fail to ease. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that officials need more data before the September meeting to see if inflation is temporary or lasting. Nevertheless, traders are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid inflation risks stemming from supply disruptions through the Red Sea. In fact, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen said that they had launched a missile attack on a Saudi oil tanker off the coast of the port city of Yanbu and another in the Gulf of Aden.
This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and helps limit the downside in crude oil prices. Moreover, USD bears seem hesitant and opt to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday – for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. In the meantime, Thursday's US economic docket features the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which, along with comments from influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis could infuse volatility in the global financial markets, which could further provide some impetus to the buck and produce short-term trading opportunities around Gold.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis: Gold bulls now await move beyond 23.6% Fibo. before placing fresh betsThe overnight strong move up beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since March 17, was seen as a fresh trigger for XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, a firming Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 29.52 and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61.28 hint at improving bullish momentum. However, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-June downfall before positioning for any further gains.
The precious metal might then aim to challenge the $4,500 psychological mark – representing the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibo. level confluence. Higher up, the 50.0%, 61.8% and 78.6% retracements at $4,678.89, $4,853.49 and $5,102.07 respectively outline subsequent bullish objectives if the current band is cleared. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 50-day SMA at $4,157.24, while a deeper setback would likely look toward the Fibonacci cycle low area near $3,939.05 as a more substantial structural floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
