Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Gold hit my target and made a high for the week exactly at strong resistance at 4290/4305, reversing from 4302.

I projected that we could fall as far as first support at 4240/4230.

Longs worked perfectly with a bounce from 4230 to 4275 on the 1st bounce, and an afternoon retest saw a bounce from 4223 to an over night high at 4261 (as I write).

Again today, longs need stops below 4220.

Of course the direction of Gold & silver today will be determined by the US Non Farm Payroll release.

A break lower targets support at 4195, perhaps as far as strong support at 4170/4160.

Longs need stops below 4145. Just be aware that a break lower can target 4130/4120.

A retest of strong resistance at 4290/4305  gives us another sell opportunity but shorts need stops above 4315.

A break higher is another buy signal for today & we could see further quick gains towards strong 5 month trend line resistance at 4355/4360.

Shorts need stops above 4375.

Silver (XAG/USD) resumes its near-term bullish trend on Friday, after a brief hesitation on Thursday, reaching fresh six-week highs at $63.90, although it is still due to confirm the break of the resistance area at $63.30. The white metal is on track for its best weekly performance since February, favoured by fading expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in the coming months.

Investors, however, are likely to maintain a cautious mood on Friday, awaiting the release of the key Nonfarm Payrolls report. Analysts at Danske Bank forecast July's payrolls at 70k, with the Unemployment Rate unchanged at 4.2%. The bank notes that “most leading data still point towards solid labour market conditions, although weak labour supply growth also weighs on the employment growth outlook,” adding that “the unemployment rate remains the Fed's primary focus.”

Technical Analysis: A break of $63.30 would confirm a trend shift

XAG/USD trades at $63.78, sustaining a bullish near-term bias with bulls holding prices above the top of the last six weeks' trading range, at the $63.30 area. Momentum indicators, however, show an overextended rally, with the Relative Strength Index (14) at overbought levels around 74. A still-positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading suggests that upside momentum is not yet exhausted.

A clear break above early July highs in the 63.30 area would confirm that Silver is on a bullish trend, aiming for the June 22 highs in the 67.00 area and the June 17 high, near $71.60. On the downside, any pullback below the mentioned $63.30 exposes Thursday's low in the $60.90 area, ahead of the August 3 low, at $56.57.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD has been confined to tight ranges around 1.3455, with a slight increase in near-term downside momentum. They expect any intraday decline to stay within 1.3430–1.3475. On a 1–3 week view, momentum has eased and a break of 1.3410 would confirm that the previously eyed 1.3555 resistance is unlikely to be tested soon.

Range-bound trade with softer momentum"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, GBP edged higher to 1.3486 before closing at 1.3469 (+0.12%). When GBP was at 1.3470 in the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that “while upward momentum has picked up slightly, it is more likely to result in GBP trading within a higher range of 1.3445/1.3495 rather than signaling the start of a sustained advance.” GBP subsequently traded within a relatively tight range of 1.3449/1.3479. This time around, there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, but any decline is likely to be contained within a range of 1.3430/1.3475."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.3485), we indicated that “while strong momentum suggests further upside, it remains to be seen whether GBP can break and hold above the significant resistance at 1.3555.” After GBP struggled to extend its advance, we highlighted two days ago (05 Aug, spot at 1.3450) that “upward momentum has since eased, but there is still a chance, albeit not a high one, for GBP to rise toward 1.3555.” Upward momentum continues to ease, and from here, a breach of 1.3410 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that 1.3555 is not coming into view."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that reduced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening have helped EUR/USD climb, but questions how justified this move is. He stresses that Kevin Warsh’s lack of forward guidance does not preclude rate hikes, and that stronger US labour data could shift expectations back toward tighter policy. Commerzbank has cut its EUR/USD forecast by two cents across its horizon as perceived Dollar hike risks rise.

dollar risks reprice on Fed uncertainty"Since last week's Fed meeting, expectations of interest rate hikes have been priced out. Rather than tightening by roughly 44 basis points by the end of the year, the expectation is now for 'only' 33. This is likely the main reason why EUR-USD has recently climbed higher again."

"The key point is this: the absence of forward guidance does not mean that there will be no change in interest rates. It simply means that any change will not be announced in advance. This shifts the focus to the decision itself and places greater emphasis on the data."

"Today's labour market figures could provide an initial indication of the direction of future monetary policy. Our economists expect 100,000 new jobs to be created, which is a stronger increase than the current Bloomberg consensus forecast of +80,000. However, the USD’s reaction will depend not only on the headline figure, but also on the extent of revisions to previous months' figures and the unemployment rate."

"If today's figures are more positive than expected, this would strongly suggest possible interest rate hikes. While we still do not believe that the Fed ultimately intends to take this step, the market is unlikely to be deterred from continuing to bet on a rate hike. This is one of the main reasons why we have revised our EUR/USD forecast downwards by two cents over our whole forecast horizon this week."

"This is because, even though we have not adjusted our Fed forecast, the risk of an interest rate hike has clearly increased in recent weeks."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

The AUD/USD pair finds some support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June corrective slide and, for now, seems to have stalled its pullback from the highest level since June 17, around 0.7065, touched earlier this week. Spot prices, however, struggle to attract meaningful buyers as geopolitical uncertainties continue to support the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) ahead of the crucial US monthly employment details.

The closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be looked for fresh cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path. The outlook, in turn, would drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide a fresh impetus to the AUD/USD pair. In the meantime, the US-Iran standoff acts as a tailwind for crude oil prices, reviving inflation fears and bolstering bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. This is seen acting as a tailwind for the USD and capping the upside for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair's inability to build on this week's strength above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent failure near the 50% Fibo. level warrants some caution for bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 suggests moderately constructive momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds slightly positive. Moreover, spot prices hold comfortably above the 200-day SMA at 0.6923.

The long-term moving average remains well below the current price, hinting at broader downside protection. Hence, any further weakness below the 38.2% Fibo. level and the 0.7000 psychological mark could find decent support near the 23.6% level at 0.6966 and the 200-day SMA at 0.6923. Further down, the structural floor near 0.6870 is expected to act as a more significant medium-term base for the AUD/USD pair if short-term bearish pressure resumes.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at 0.7052, followed by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7074 and the 61.8% level at 0.7122, with higher barriers emerging at 0.7190 and 0.7277.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD daily chart

Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Read more.

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

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Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

The fundamentals for gold and silver are still anticipating Friday’s NFP reports, the last of the major macro which will allow the market to recalibrate their Fed expectations. Following the July ADP report, where it was reported that only 44,000 new private sector jobs were created (the worst report in 6 months), and jobs were expected to be created, the market seems to believe the labor market is slowing.

Today’s new jobless claims will be the last labor market data before the Friday report. It is expected that the July NFP report will show that new jobs increased by 80,000 to 90,000 new jobs, a reduction from June’s 121,000, and a labor market participation rate near 4.2%, and an NFP report that is expected to be weak would suggest that the Fed will be more aggressive with monetary easing and if the report is strong the opposite would be true.

Gold prices rose in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 8,353.18 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,304.41 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold increased to PHP 97,429.05 per tola from PHP 96,861.02 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PHP

1 Gram

8,353.18

10 Grams

83,531.21

Tola

97,429.05

Troy Ounce

259,818.90

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 503.81 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 500.63 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold increased to AED 5,876.41 per tola from AED 5,839.22 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

503.81

10 Grams

5,038.07

Tola

5,876.41

Troy Ounce

15,670.63

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 561.29 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 557.62 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,546.79 per tola from MYR 6,503.99 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

561.29

10 Grams

5,612.91

Tola

6,546.79

Troy Ounce

17,458.15

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

TL;DR: USD/JPY has recovered a third of last week’s intervention-driven losses, but Friday’s payrolls report sets up an asymmetric trade — a strong print faces profit-taking near 160 on intervention risk, while a weak print has a clear, undeterred path back to 155.

A Recovery That Faces Its First Real Test USD/JPY has recovered roughly one-third of the losses triggered by last week’s rare US-Japan intervention, but Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will test whether that recovery has much further to run. Under normal circumstances, a major upside or downside payroll surprise would produce broadly symmetrical reactions through Treasury yields and Fed expectations. This time is different. Rapid confirmation of intervention by both Washington and Tokyo, together with unusually forceful messaging, has changed how traders are likely to manage positions. A strong NFP could still send USD/JPY higher, but traders now have powerful reasons to take profits as it approaches 160. A weak report faces no equivalent restraint on the way back toward 155.

Intervention Changed More Than USD/JPY’s Level The context of last week’s intervention is crucial. Washington and Tokyo didn’t merely step into the market and leave traders guessing — both sides moved quickly to confirm what happened, effectively removing ambiguity over whether the sharp fall from 163.97 was official intervention. That mattered because confirmation transformed a one-off market operation into a warning: authorities were prepared to act against excessive Yen weakness, and speculators shouldn’t assume USD/JPY could simply snap back once intervention flows ended.

Timing reinforced that message. Intervention came immediately before a heavy US data week containing both ISM surveys and, most importantly, today’s employment report. Officials would have known strong data could revive Fed hike expectations and quickly rebuild upward pressure on USD/JPY. By demonstrating their willingness to intervene beforehand, they changed the risk calculation facing anyone considering rebuilding long positions.

That deterrence may prove more important than whether authorities actually intervene again. Traders don’t need to know the precise level or timing of another operation — they only need to believe the probability is sufficiently high that holding an extended USD/JPY long becomes unattractive. In that sense, intervention can continue influencing the pair even without another Dollar being sold.

NFP Has Plenty of Room to Surprise Today’s employment report arrives after a particularly mixed set of leading indicators. Expectations center on roughly 80K–100K growth in July payrolls after just 57K in June, while unemployment is expected around 4.2% and average hourly earnings around 0.3% mom. But this week’s data provide little conviction over which side of consensus payrolls will land:

ISM Manufacturing Employment jumped from 49.7 to 52.8, returning to expansion for the first time in 33 months — the strongest employment signal of the week. ISM Services Employment moved sharply the opposite direction, falling from 51.2 to 47.4 and returning to contraction. ADP added to the softer side of the picture, with private employment growth of only 44K. JOLTS offered a more stable message: job openings were little changed at 7.4m, hiring remained subdued at 5.3m, and quits and layoffs were also broadly unchanged — reinforcing a picture of a low-hire, low-fire labor market rather than an abrupt deterioration. Weekly initial jobless claims at just 199K confirmed employers are still showing little inclination to shed workers. Taken together, there’s no clean signal ahead of NFP. That raises the potential for a meaningful surprise — and makes the reaction in USD/JPY particularly interesting.

Strong NFP: USD/JPY Can Rise, But Who Wants to Chase It Above 160? A strong payroll report should initially produce a straightforward reaction. Treasury yields would likely rise, the Dollar should strengthen, and markets could revive expectations for a September Fed hike — a possibility particularly relevant with Brent having rebounded above $83, reducing some of the disinflationary relief that drove Fed repricing earlier this week.

USD/JPY would naturally participate. The rebound from 155.22 could extend, but the difficulty comes as the pair approaches 160. Technically, the 50% retracement of 163.97 to 155.22 lies at 159.59, almost exactly overlapping the 55 4H EMA, currently around 159.51 — making 159.50–160.00 an obvious resistance zone even without intervention risk.

But intervention changes incentives around that resistance dramatically. A trader buying USD/JPY following strong payrolls may have a profitable position by the time the pair approaches 160. Holding onto that trade then means accepting the possibility that Washington and Tokyo intervene again and erase those gains rapidly — last week’s operation demonstrated that this is no longer a theoretical tail risk.

Friday timing adds another consideration. Traders approaching US close would have to decide whether to carry those longs through a weekend of persistent Middle East uncertainty and then into Monday’s thinner Asian liquidity, when intervention risk would be particularly difficult to ignore. Many may decide there’s little reason to do so — creating a natural tendency toward profit-taking around 160. Importantly, authorities wouldn’t need to intervene for this mechanism to work: if speculators voluntarily close longs rather than challenge authorities, deterrence itself becomes part of resistance.

Weak NFP: Downside Has No Intervention Problem A significant payroll miss produces a much cleaner setup. Weak employment growth, particularly if combined with higher unemployment or softer wage growth, would undermine remaining expectations for a September hike. Treasury yields would likely fall, the Dollar would weaken, and USD/JPY could quickly reverse its recovery from 155.22.

Unlike the upside case, traders would have little reason to fear that authorities might stand in their way. Last week’s intervention was explicitly aimed at strengthening the Yen — a fundamental move in the same direction would therefore be entirely consistent with the policy objective already demonstrated by Washington and Tokyo.

Technically, a break of 157.30 minor support would shift focus back toward the 155.22 intervention low. The size and speed of any decline would depend heavily on the magnitude and composition of the payroll surprise, but there’s little obvious policy deterrent preventing traders from testing that area.

There is, nevertheless, a different reason for shorts to become cautious around 155. The 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 lies at 154.76, creating significant medium-term technical support immediately beneath the intervention low. Once USD/JPY approaches that 154.76–155.22 zone, fresh downside would offer progressively less attractive risk-reward. Weekend positioning matters here too — with geopolitical uncertainty still elevated, traders sitting on profitable USD/JPY shorts may see little benefit in pressing them aggressively into major technical support immediately before markets close, which could generate profit-taking around 155 even without any official resistance to Yen strength.

ActionForex’s View: Same Payroll Surprise, Very Different Risk Calculations The result is an unusually asymmetric NFP setup. A strong report can revive Fed hike expectations and extend USD/JPY’s rebound, but every move toward 159.50–160.00 increases the incentive for traders to bank profits rather than challenge authorities who have already demonstrated willingness to intervene.

A weak report has a clearer path lower. A break of 157.30 could reopen 155.22, with authorities unlikely to discourage a move that reinforces their own intervention objective. Only around 154.76–155.22 does the downside encounter a comparable reason for traders to step back — and there, the constraint comes from technical support and weekend risk rather than fear of official action.

That could leave 155–160 functioning as an effective post-intervention range. More importantly, it demonstrates why the success of last week’s operation shouldn’t be judged solely by whether Washington and Tokyo return to the market. If intervention risk persuades traders to take profits before USD/JPY can rebuild its previous rally, deterrence is already doing much of the work authorities intended.

Key Takeaways USD/JPY faces an asymmetric NFP setup: intervention risk caps upside profit-taking near 160, while downside toward 155 faces no equivalent official resistance. Leading indicators send conflicting signals into NFP — ISM Manufacturing improved sharply while ISM Services contracted and ADP came in soft, leaving no clean consensus read. 159.50–160.00 is key resistance (the 50% retracement at 159.59 overlapping the 55 4H EMA at 159.51), reinforced by traders’ reluctance to hold longs through intervention-risk weekends. A break of 157.30 support would reopen the 155.22 intervention low, a move authorities have no incentive to resist since it aligns with their own policy objective. 154.76–155.22 marks the next technical floor beneath the intervention low, where profit-taking on shorts is likely driven by technical support and weekend risk rather than intervention fear.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Gold is finding fresh demand in Asia on Friday, pausing a sharp pullback from seven-week highs of $4,304 reached a day before. However, Gold bulls stay cautious ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.

Gold: All eyes on US NFP amid Iran risksRisk sentiment remains tepid early Friday, as renewed tensions over the Strait of Hormuz passage raised doubts about a potential US-Iran peace deal.

Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported on Thursday, citing a lawmaker, that an Iranian parliamentary committee is reviewing a preliminary bill that would bar US, Israeli and other "hostile" vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The draft bill would impose fines of up to 20% of a ship's cargo value for violations of the proposed restrictions.

Oil prices rebounded firmly on Iran headlines, re-igniting inflation worries and September Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets.

These Middle East concerns revived the US Dollar’s (USD) appeal as a haven, allowing the buck to stage a comeback, while triggering a sharp pullback in Gold from multi-week highs.

As of Friday’s trading, so far, the Greenback is holding overnight gains, capping the latest uptick in Gold. However, Gold remains on track to book its best week since January.  

Gold traders now eagerly await the monthly US labor market report, including the critical NFP reading, for fresh hints on the Fed’s outlook on rates, which will likely have a significant impact on the USD and US Treasury bond yields.

The headline NFP is expected to rise by 80,000 in July after a 57,000 increase in June. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is set to remain at 4.2% in the same period.

ADP slowdown reinforces TD Securities view of moderating US job gainsAccording to TD Securities, July ADP employment data "surprised to the downside, moderating to 44k (TD: 50k, cons: 65k)," underscoring a softer tone after a robust start to the year. The bank stresses that it does "not put much weight on ADP when it comes to m/m moves in NFP," but notes that "the trend in the data is in line with what we are expecting." Both the monthly and weekly ADP series "have moderated this summer after a strong start to the year," and TD Securities expects "a similar trend is likely to occur with NFP job gains," reinforcing their view of gradually cooling labour market momentum.

If the NFP reading shows a bigger-than-expected print, it would be good news for the US economy. That could ramp up September Fed rate hike bets and render negative for non-yielding assets such as Gold.

Conversely, an NFP disappointment could propel Gold bulls toward fresh multi-week highs, reviving US labor market concerns and the USD downtrend.

Beyond US payrolls, markets will closely monitor the situation in the Middle East, with the US-Iran peace talks in focus alongside Oil prices.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,260.68. The pair holds above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,083.25 and the 50-day SMA at $4,151.23, keeping the near-term bias bullish as price consolidates comfortably over these trend supports. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.00 shows firm positive momentum without yet entering overbought territory, which suggests scope for further gains while the metal remains supported by these underlying averages.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA at $4,389.72, ahead of a more substantial barrier at the 200-day SMA around $4,494.54. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 50-day SMA near $4,151.23, with the 21-day SMA at $4,083.25 acting as a deeper floor; a daily close below these levels would hint at a loss of bullish traction and a broader consolidation phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.

Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.

Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.

Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 1% higher to near $62.20 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal rises ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

TD Securities looks for a modest July payrolls rebound with unemployment steadyAccording to TD Securities, July’s jobs report is expected to show only a slight improvement after June’s downside surprise. The bank’s economists anticipate that "July NFP picked up modestly to 70k after surprising to the downside with 57k in June," pointing to a still subdued pace of hiring. They also expect the jobless rate to hold its recent gains, noting that "the UE rate likely went sideways at 4.2% after declining in June," consistent with a labor market that remains broadly stable rather than decisively weakening.

The official employment data is expected to have a significant influence on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations in the absence of “forward-guidance” from the central bank.

On the global front, a sharp recovery in oil prices due to diminished hopes of an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, could limit the upside in the Silver price.

At press time, the WTI Oil price holds on Thursday’s recovery move to near $77.00.

Higher oil prices boost global inflation projections, a scenario that prompts fears of interest rate hikes by central banks, which is unfavorable for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Silver technical analysis

XAG/USD trades at around $62.20 above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.66, keeping the near-term bias constructive as price holds over this key trend reference.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 56.27 sits in positive territory without being overbought, hinting that bullish momentum remains in place but not yet overstretched.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA at $59.66, which reinforces the broader bullish structure as long as it holds. The white metal could return to the Year-To-Date (YTD) low at 54.77 if it fails to hold the 20-day EMA. On the upside, the July 6 high at $63.28 is the immediate barrier; a decisive break above the same would open the door towards the June 22 high at $67.17.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

However, the upcoming employment data will be key to gold prices. Strong job numbers can push the gold price back below the 50-day SMA and push prices towards the $4,000 region. A break below $3,900 will indicate negative price action and open the door for a strong drop. On the other hand, the weak jobs data may keep the rallies in gold prices to $4,500.

Gold Price Tests Descending Trend-Line Resistance Near $4,300 The importance of the current resistance is seen on the 4-hour chart, which shows that the price hit the descending trend line at $4,300 that stretches from the April 17, 2026, high.

A break above this descending trend line will open the door for a strong rally to $4,450. On the other hand, $4,120 is seen as important support. A break below $4,120 will indicate that this was just the short term rebound and that the price remains negative and continues to move downward.

EUR/USD extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.1520 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair faces downward pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gains strength, propelled by renewed safe-haven demand among global investors.

Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have rattled market stability and created significant skepticism regarding the reopening of this critical shipping route. Market caution remains elevated as Iran's parliament evaluates a draft proposal that seeks to prohibit US and Israeli vessels, levy a 20% cargo penalty on hostile nations, and maintain restrictions on the corridor until the US blockade is removed.

Adding to the market volatility, rising US Treasury yields and a rebound in crude oil prices have stoked fears that the Federal Reserve might implement another interest rate hike next month. Despite these inflationary signals, the CME FedWatch Tool currently reflects a 54.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September, down from 63.4% last week. Investors and traders are now closely eyeing the upcoming July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report to gauge the health of the labor market and better anticipate the Fed's monetary policy path.

Across the Atlantic, economic indicators in the Euro Area present a challenging backdrop. Eurozone Retail Sales unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% month-on-month in June, missing market projections for a 0.1% growth and almost completely unwinding May's revised 0.4% gain. On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose by merely 0.7%, the weakest performance since July 2024, falling short of the expected 1.0% expansion and decelerating sharply from May's 1.9% increase.

Furthermore, the recovery in oil prices could dampen hopes that declining energy costs would alleviate pressure on central banks to keep policy tight. Following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to hold interest rates steady at its most recent meeting, markets expect only one more ECB rate hike by the end of the year, alongside a roughly 40% chance of a second increase.

Kocher flags autumn data focus as geopolitical risks cloud Euro inflationECB's Kocher scores 5.6/10 on FXS Speechtracker, below the historic average of 6.3/10, pointing to a slightly less forceful tone than usual. The emphasis on how quickly geopolitical developments can alter energy prices and the inflation outlook highlights upside risks to Euro-area prices, which leans modestly hawkish despite the softer score.

The commitment that in autumn the ECB Governing Council will base decisions on incoming data to bring Euro-area inflation back to 2% on a sustainable basis reinforces a data-dependent but vigilant stance. Overall, the speech suggests a cautious hawkish bias, with Kocher keeping the door open to renewed tightening or a slower easing path if energy-driven inflation pressures re-emerge.

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7904 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7895 and 6.7548 Reuters estimate.

PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.

The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.

Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.

Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

Platinum futures trade around 1,753.75, testing the upper boundary of the 1,736–1,792 bearish gap zone after a breakout from consolidation, with the ascending channel providing support below. Source: GoldPriceForecast.com Let’s begin with a reminder from last week’s Lab:

“(…) A daily close above 1663 or below 1553 is still required before expecting a meaningful directional move. (…)”

After weeks of consolidation, platinum finally delivered the breakout above 1663, activating the bullish scenario we outlined at the beginning of July. As a reminder:

“(…) A move above 1662 wouldn’t simply close the bearish gap – it would also trigger a breakout from the orange consolidation that’s been containing price over the past several sessions.

(…) What happens if buyers manage to break out?

A confirmed breakout would open the door toward the upper boundary of the orange declining channel. Clearing that obstacle would shift attention to the next resistance zone around 1700-1707 (June 19 bearish gap). If buyers manage to close that gap as well, the next upside target becomes 1736-1792 (June 18 bearish gap).(…)”

From today’s perspective, the market has continued to follow that scenario almost perfectly, reaching our final upside target.

So, what now?

Despite two attempts, the upper boundary of the June 18 bearish gap (1736-1792) continues to hold, which means the gap remains active.

Therefore, only a daily close above 1792 would open the door toward the 1824-1848 resistance zone and potentially even the psychological 1900 level.

In our opinion, as long as platinum remains above the upper boundary of the green ascending channel – which recently replaced the triangle formation – buyers continue to hold the technical advantage.

Palladium (PA.F) Copper futures trade around 675.45, pulling back after reaching the 161.8% Fibonacci extension target, with the 692–700 area as the next upside target. Source: GoldPriceForecast.com Let’s begin with a quick reminder from last week’s Lab:

“(…) What would invalidate the bearish scenario? A daily close above 650.(…)”

Despite intraday volatility, buyers managed to finish Friday above 650, closing the bearish gap and invalidating the previous bearish scenario (that alone was another reminder of how important daily closes are compared to intraday noise).

Monday added another bullish gap (651-655), which successfully absorbed selling pressure and confirmed that buyers remain committed to higher prices.

The market responded quickly.

Copper broke above the orange consolidation and activated the bullish scenario we discussed on July 21, bringing our previously projected upside targets back into play. As a reminder:

“(…) If buyers can finish (…) session above 649.35, the odds of breaking out of the green channel increase significantly, opening the door toward the upside targets we discussed last week: 675.43 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) and potentially the 692-700 zone (…)”

Today, buyers hit a new high at 685.90, successfully achieving both the minimum measured move from the recent consolidation breakout and our first above-mentioned upside target.

The recent rally has triggered a modest pullback as traders take profits, however, as long as copper remains above the 669-671 support zone (the previously broken peaks) and the upper boundary of the green ascending channel, further gains remain possible.

The next upside target continues to be the 692-700 area.

Nevertheless, a daily close below 669 would be the first signal that a deeper correction may be starting.

Today’s Takeaways Dollar (DX.F)

100 & the 100.14-100.32 resistance zone are key. Buyers need a daily close back above 100 to invalidate the recent breakdown. Until then, sellers remain in control despite this week’s rebound. Platinum (PL.F)

The 1736-1792 bearish gap remains the key resistance. A daily close above 1792 opens the door toward 1824-1848 and potentially 1900. Buyers remain in control while price stays above the green ascending channel. Palladium (PA.F)

Monday’s defense of 1250 keeps the bullish scenario alive. The next resistance zone around 1388-1430 & support area around 1310-1325 deserve attention. The next upside target -> 1430. Copper (HG.F)

Here we watch the 669-671 zone. As long as price remains above it, the next upside target stays at 692-700. A daily close below 669 would be the first warning that a deeper pullback may be underway. Anna

US Dollar Talking Points: It’s been a comeback week so far for the USD as the USD/JPY sell-off that dominated last week has pared back. The big question now is two-fold, first the NFP report for tomorrow morning but perhaps more potentially impactful is what response we might see should USD/JPY continue to push closer to the 160.00 handle. After the Fed last week the focus becomes more intense on US data, as markets are still pricing in an 84.3% probability of at least one rate hike into the end of the year. Given the political drama that would entail it puts perhaps even more pressure on newly-installed FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh. The big data prints for the US are coming into view starting with tomorrow’s Non-farm Payrolls report. While we’ve had some big data items already this week and a surprising show from the Atlanta GDP Now estimate coming in at 5.9%, NFP and CPI can carry special meaning for market participants as they give a clear view of the Fed’s two mandates. And while NFP can often be messy given its early nature, CPI has been encouraging of late after last month’s below-expected print eased concerns after a hawkish sounding FOMC at the June rate meeting.

For this iteration, however, there’s perhaps another factor of consideration especially for FX markets and traders as the Japanese Yen intervention to close last week casts a shadow over markets. We’re still in the early stage of that saga but most noteworthy is that this time, it wasn’t Japan going at it alone, as the US Treasury Secretary made multiple comments on the matter and given the possible repercussions, it makes sense as to why he might be interested in the results.

So, that can be considered as either a wild card or a Trump card, depending on one’s vantage point. Because if we do see USD/JPY rally back above 160.00 or perhaps even higher, the big question is whether both Scott Bessent and the Japanese Finance Ministry will just continue to take a step back, even if it makes them look weak in front of global macro markets.

As I shared yesterday, this can produce a backdrop similar to 2022, and this is pertinent both for the Dollar basket and USD/JPY, where a theoretically-capped upside leads to a vulnerable trend that could quickly unwind as soon as data going in the other direction appears. In 2022, it was below-expected CPI, even though headline was at 7.1% and core at 6.3%. And now, with markets tightened for Fed rate cuts into the end of the year, evidence going against that in the form of weak employment and weaker-than-expected inflation can lead to USD-weakness as those USD/JPY carry bets unwind.

In DXY, price is testing a familiar area. The 100 spot is what came in as support right around when the Fed started cutting rates in 2024. And then in 2025, it showed multiple iterations of resistance until finally being broken through earlier this year.

Now, it’s back as short-term resistance following the sell-off from last week. And for USD-bears this can be a huge area to look for some element of defense.

US Dollar Weekly Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY I’m of the opinion that this is still the eye of the storm. While it’s not bearish on a short-term basis there’s still the very real prospect of a swipe from policymakers, as both economies in the pair have spoken on the matter over the past week. It’s also clear that both Japan and the US would like USD/JPY to not go back up to those 40-year highs that were set a week ago, as there’s ramifications for both economies.

I highlighted this in the weekend video last Friday but the 155.00 area seemed a logical support as an intervention there wouldn’t make much sense. Ultimately, that’s around where the low has come into place. Yesterday there was an ascending triangle as resistance had come back in around 158, followed by higher-lows that’s since led to breakout. So, it seems we have a case of bulls reaching just a little bit further to see how far they might be able to get before getting swatted down by another intervention move.

The 160.00 area seems a logical spot to look for some element of defense. And the ramifications of that are that the pair can be seen as carrying a more limited upside appeal, as a continued rally can evoke another action like we saw last week. Like I said in yesterday’s video, this isn’t quite bearish, but it is something that can leave the pair vulnerable for a shift in data and with some major reports coming out of the US over the next week that’s a very real scenario that should be entertained.

USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD: Along for the Ride While the Euro is a much larger component of DXY than the Japanese Yen, the build of the carry trade over the last five years means that there’s probably much more size behind the USD/JPY trend than anything in EUR/USD. Thus, when we get a move like last week, when USD/JPY carry traders rush for the exit, if it it’s a relatively minor move in the grand scheme of that market, we can similarly see USD-weakness play out against the Euro, which broke above the 1.1500 handle and has since built a bit of support at the big figure.

From both the daily and four-hour charts, this is a bullish trend. From the weekly, however, there’s still a bearish argument that can be made and I think that persists until we see 1.1576-1.1613 traded through with a closed-body break on the daily chart.

Perhaps the bigger question is one of venue, as USD-weakness may simply play more attractively elsewhere, such as the British Pound. For now, taking that daily chart, there’s support potential at 1.1500 and then down at 1.1455-1.1469, after which that 1.1402 level stands out as an important spot for the pair.

EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds firm against the US Dollar (USD) during the North American session on Thursday, after US jobs data reinforces the thesis that the labor market remains solid ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3466, after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3404. Read More...

British Pound treads water above 1.3450 with markets awaiting US employment figuresThe British Pound (GBP) holds marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading at 1.3460 at the time of writing, down from Wednesday's highs at 1.3486. This leaves the GBP/USD pair hovering within a 100-pip range, with bulls capped below 1.3500 while a weak US Dollar keeps downside attempts supported above the 1.3400 area. Read More...

British Pound loses ground to near 1.3450 as traders await possible US-Iran dealThe GBP/USD pair drifts lower to near 1.3460 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Conflicting rhetoric from the US and Iranian officials about a potential deal fuels market concerns, dragging the British Pound (GBP) lower against the US Dollar (USD). The US Initial Jobless Claims report will be released later on Thursday. Read More...

Gold flows into ETFs flipped positive globally in July. After two consecutive months of outflows, every region reported positive flows of metal into gold-backed funds in July.

With Europe leading the way, gold ETFs reported net gold inflows of 23.5 tonnes in July, valued at $3 billion.

Assets under management (AUM) by gold-backed funds rose 1 percent to $530 billion. ETFs currently hold 4,068 tonnes of the yellow metal.

Year-to-date, ETFs have added a net 39 tonnes of gold to their collective holdings valued at $11 billion.

The World Gold Council pinpointed three factors driving the ETF turnaround in July:

Diversification amid tech volatilitySelective bargain hunting as prices fellPolicy and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly an unclear monetary policy outlook and the ongoing war in IranEuropean ETFs reported the second-strongest month of inflows this year in July, adding 17.3 tonnes of gold valued at around $2 billion.

Funds based in the UK and Switzerland led the surge.

According to the World Gold Council, it appears investors in Europe “rebuilt their positions” following a big selloff in June, as lower prices created buying opportunities.

“This mirrors the pattern seen earlier in the year, when European funds led the rebound following March's sharp U.S.-led outflows, suggesting investors were willing to add exposure after periods of market weakness.”

Asian funds reported a 4.8-tonne increase in gold holdings valued at $116 million. Chinese funds led the way with investors seeking a safe haven.

The CSI 300 Stock Index recorded its worst month since January 2016. Meanwhile, falling local yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Japanese-listed funds reported outflows as rising local yields diverted investor demand.

Indian funds reported modest inflows of $157 million.

North American funds reported inflows of just 0.3 tonnes valued at $71 million. The World Gold Council called it a “tentative recovery” after two months of significant outflows.

North America remains the only region reporting net gold outflows for the year.

Funds in other regions, including Africa and Australia, reported gold inflows of 1 tonne valued at $140 million. ETFs listed in South Africa and Australia led the way.

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

ETFs are relatively liquid. You can buy or sell an ETF with a couple of mouse clicks. You don’t have to worry about transporting or storing metal. In a nutshell, it allows investors to play the gold market without buying full ounces of metal at the spot price. 

Since you are just buying a number in a computer, you can easily trade your ETF shares for another stock or cash whenever you want, even multiple times on the same day. Many speculative investors take advantage of this liquidity.

But while a gold ETF is a convenient way to play gold's price, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold either, especially when it sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.

Trading volumesGlobal market liquidity averaged $356 billion per day in July, down 3.5 percent month-on-month.

Over-the-counter trading volumes also fell, ticking lower by about 3.4 percent to $205 billion per day.

Despite the decline, both LBMA volumes and Shanghai trading activity remained above their 2025 averages.

Total COMEX longs dropped modestly by 4.4 percent to 542 tonnes.

Managed money appears to be rebuilding its position, with longs adding 11 tonnes.

The World Gold Council described the current position as “near neutral.”

“Gold continues to be weighed down by the effects of the war in the Middle East, which has reinforced inflation risks and supported the dollar and yields, adding to the opportunity-cost headwind facing gold.”

To receive free commentary and analysis on the gold and silver markets, click here to be added to the Money Metals news service.

The USD/CHF snaps two days of losses and rises by over 0.60% on Thursday after solid US jobs data. Also, buyers stepped in at key support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.8052, pushing the pair back above the 0.8100 threshold.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe USD/CHF uptrend remains intact, with the market structure of higher highs and higher lows, continued to be respected. Also, momentum, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers are in control, as the index crosses above its 50-neutral level.

Given the backdrop, the pair faces key resistance at 0.8150. Once breached, a move towards 0.8200 is on the cards. Above lies the yearly high of 0.8207, which once cleared, would extend the USD/CHF rally towards the June 4, 2025, cycle high at 0.8250. Up next is 0.8300.

On the downside, the first support for USD/CHF would be at 0.8100. If spot prices fall below the 50-day SMA at 0.8052 emerges as the next floor level, followed by the 0.8000 mark. 

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.30%0.11%0.44%0.06%0.39%0.34%0.69%EUR-0.30%-0.19%0.15%-0.24%0.07%0.05%0.39%GBP-0.11%0.19%0.34%-0.06%0.26%0.22%0.59%JPY-0.44%-0.15%-0.34%-0.39%-0.06%-0.09%0.27%CAD-0.06%0.24%0.06%0.39%0.33%0.31%0.65%AUD-0.39%-0.07%-0.26%0.06%-0.33%-0.02%0.30%NZD-0.34%-0.05%-0.22%0.09%-0.31%0.02%0.38%CHF-0.69%-0.39%-0.59%-0.27%-0.65%-0.30%-0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the disappointing Euro Area Retail Sales report.USD/CAD gained ground amid falling demand for commodity-related currencies. USD/JPY climbed towards the 158.50 level amid rising Treasury yields.

U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Oil Prices Rally 4%

DXY 060826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is moving higher as traders react to the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 199,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 202,000.

Traders also react to the strong rally in the oil markets. Oil prices are up by +4% as Houthis attacked Saudi-backed forces in Yemen. Rising oil prices raised demand for safe-haven assets, which was bullish for the American currency.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the 50 MA at 100.35. A move above the 50 MA will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the resistance at 100.50 – 100.65.

EUR/USD Retreats As Euro Area Retail Sales Miss Estimates EUR/USD 060826 4h Chart EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the disappointing Euro Area Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Euro Area Retail Sales decreased by -0.3% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of +0.1%.

Traders also had a chance to take a look at the Factory Orders report from Germany. The report showed that Factory Orders increased by +3.1%, compared to analyst consensus of +0.3%.

EUR/USD attempts to settle below the support level at 1.1510 – 1.1525. If EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1510 level, it will move towards the 50 MA at 1.1479. A move below the 50 MA will push EUR/USD towards the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435.

GBP/USD Remains Stuck Near Resistance At 1.3465 – 1.3480 GBP/USD 060826 4h Chart GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.3465 – 1.3480 despite rising oil prices. In the UK, traders focused on the Construction PMI report. The report indicated that UK Construction PMI improved from 38.4 in June to 44.7 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 40.

A successful test of the resistance at 1.3465 – 1.3480 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

USD/CAD Attempts To Rebound

USD/CAD 060826 4h Chart USD/CAD gains some ground as traders focus on the pullback in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are losing ground in today’s trading session.

If USD/CAD settles above the 1.4025 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.4055. In case USD/CAD climbs above the 50 MA, it will move towards the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.

USD/JPY Moves Higher As Treasury Yields Rise USD/JPY 060826 4h Chart USD/JPY gained ground as traders focused on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries settled near the 4.25% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries climbed above 4.67%. Rising Treasury yields are bullish for USD/JPY due to the ultra-dovish policy of the BoJ.

From the technical point of view, USD/JPY attempts to settle above the resistance level at 157.50 – 158.00. If USD/JPY settles above the 158.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to provide additional support to the Japanese yen in the near term.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends Wednesday's 4% spike on Thursday, trading around $4,260 and holding near a seven-week high as a softer US Dollar (USD) and retreating Treasury yields reinforce the metal's recovery. What distinguishes Thursday's session is that Gold is climbing alongside Crude Oil rather than against it.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) that the agreement would not automatically reopen the waterway. According to a senior Gulf official, there is a 50% chance that Iran and Oman will reach a deal by Friday. Meanwhile, United States (US) Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that talks with Iran were "messy," calling Iranians "extraordinarily difficult people." Reuters has separately reported that the proposal could hand Tehran control over inbound traffic, a formulation Washington has repeatedly rejected.

Thursday's releases were more mixed, with Initial Jobless Claims at 199K against the 202K consensus and Challenger Job Cuts easing to 33.4K from 45.8K, describing a labor market cooling through slower hiring rather than rising layoffs. Softer employment data have trimmed the odds of a September Federal Reserve (Fed) hike, a straightforward tailwind for a non-yielding asset.

Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report is the immediate hurdle as a Reuters survey points to an 80K gain in July after June's 57K, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.2%.

Technical Analysis:On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,253, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,146 and the 100-period SMA at $4,073. The cluster of horizontal supports at $4,248 and $4,232 sits just beneath the market, reinforcing the constructive structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 72 signals overbought conditions that could temper immediate upside momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance appears at $4,276, ahead of a stronger barrier at $4,304, where fresh buying would be needed to extend the rally. On the downside, the first layer of support is seen at $4,248, followed by $4,232, with the 20-period SMA at $4,146 and the 100-period SMA at $4,074 providing deeper structural demand if a corrective pullback unfolds.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)