Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels Gold has broken decisively above a multi-week consolidation pattern with XAU/USD rallying more than 10% from the yearly low. The breakout has already cleared a major technical hurdle, shifting the focus to the yearly downtrend. Weekly momentum is beginning to improve, but buyers still need follow-through to reinforce the broader recovery. A hold above former range resistance would strengthen the bullish outlook with key resistance eyed at the yearly downtrend. Next week's U.S. CPI report could provide the catalyst for gold's next major directional move. Resistance 4319/19, 4493-4533 (key), 4855/94- Support 4175, 4002/17 (key), 3887 Gold has delivered its strongest weekly advance since January after breaking decisively above a multi-week consolidation pattern, marking the most significant technical development since the March decline began. The rally has already reclaimed a major resistance zone and shifted attention toward the broader yearly downtrend, but buyers still need confirmation that this week's breakout can develop into something more durable. With key inflation data due next week, traders will be watching closely to see whether gold can build on this recovery and validate a more significant low is finally in place. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD was trading within, “a well-defined consolidation pattern just above the yearly lows heading into the August open and the focus is on a breakout in the weeks ahead for directional guidance.” The six-week range broke higher this week with the rally extending more than 10.8% off the yearly low. The breakout has already surpassed a major pivot zone and keeps the focus on a potential challenge of the yearly downtrend.
Our initial focus was on the 52-week moving average and the objective yearly open at 4319/30. Both the April channel line and the 25% parallel of the broader uptrend converge on this level and a weekly close keeps this constructive. While daily RSI has now extended to the highest levels since January (above 65), weekly momentum closed neutral (at 50) on Friday. We will want to see some follow through next week and the inflation report may be the catalyst.
Key resistance remains at 4493-4533- a region defined by the March low-week close (LWC), the 38.2% retracement of the March decline, and the 2025 high close. The upper parallel of the yearly downtrend converges on this zone over the next few weeks- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 61.8% retracement and the record high-week close (HWC) at 4855/94.
Initial weekly support now rests at the yearly low-week close (LWC) at 4175 backed by the late-October and July low-closes at 4002/17. A break / weekly close below this threshold would threaten resumption of the yearly downtrend towards the October swing low at 3887 and the lower parallels near ~3700.
Bottom line: Gold has broken out of a multi-week consolidation zone with the advance marking a close above the yearly moving average his week for the first time since June. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 4175 IF gold is heading higher on this stretch – look for a larger reaction on rally towards the upper parallel near 4500.
Following last week's weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report, attention now turns to Wednesday's CPI release as the next key test for the Fed's policy outlook. Markets have continued to pare expectations for additional tightening, with Fed funds futures now pricing a 58% probability the Committee remains on hold next month. A softer inflation reading would reinforce that repricing, easing pressure from higher Treasury yields and creating a more constructive environment for gold prices. Watch the weekly closes for guidance here and review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.
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Active Weekly Technical Charts Euro (EUR/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) US Dollar Index (DXY) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) British Pound (GBP/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot Silver finished sharply higher on Friday after taking out the 50-day moving average at $62.14. The market also closed above the indicator suggesting the presence of strong buyers.
The main trend is up according to two metrics. On Wednesday, the trend changed to up on the swing chart when buyers took out $60.94. It was reaffirmed on Friday when the July 6 main top at $63.28 was taken out. Crossing to the strong side of the 50-day MA also reaffirmed the uptrend.
The new short-term range is $54.78 to $65.16. If the 50-day MA fails as support then look for a possible pullback into the minor retracement zone at $59.97 to $58.75. Short-term traders should note that a trade through $56.56 will change the trend to down.
Long-term traders should pay close attention to the 50-day MA at $62.14, the long-term 50% level at $60.84 and the July 17 main bottom at $54.78. These are the key levels that will influence the longer-term direction.
On the upside, a sustained move over Friday’s high at $65.16 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the 200-day moving average at $71.09.
What to Watch Friday’s close tells traders the market believes the Fed has less room to act next month. The payroll loss was the main event. Cooler wages and a participation drop added to the case. Silver needs crude to stay contained and the dollar to stay on the defensive next week. A rebound in oil or a fresh round of hawkish pushback from Fed officials gives profit-takers from Friday’s close a reason to press the market.
The uptrend is confirmed on the swing chart and the 50-day moving average. The close above $63.28 reaffirmed it. Buyers have the 50-day at $62.14 as the first support and the long-term 50% level at $60.84 underneath that. A sustained move above Friday’s high at $65.16 reopens the path toward the 200-day moving average. A failure to hold the 50-day tells you the rally was short covering, not a trend change.
US CPI, PPI takes centre stage Fed rate hike bets have been whittled back Retail sales test resilience in household spending Yen shorts slashed 40% after intervention USD/JPY price signals point to upside directional risks USD/JPY heads into the week with yen shorts far less stretched than before the intervention episode of late July, reducing positioning risk. The key event this week is US inflation, which could materially shift expectations for Fed hikes over the next 12 months. Technically, the price signals are starting to point bullish, even with intervention still a very real risk.
US inflation takes centre stage Wednesday’s US CPI report is the main event of the week for USD/JPY, with Thursday’s PPI release also important given both will help shape expectations for core PCE later this month.
Underlying consumer inflation has been running above the Fed’s 2% target for around five years, while upstream producer price pressures have re-accelerated. Both core CPI and PPI are also expected to remain well above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target.
Source: TradingView, FOREX.com
Kevin Warsh may have ditched forward guidance, but other Fed members have made it clear their focus remains on the inflation side of the dual mandate. That puts a lot of emphasis on this week’s inflation data, especially given the question marks over the signal from Friday’s payrolls report.
The undershoot in payrolls is reminiscent of what we’ve seen in each of the past two years, with pronounced seasonal weakness through the summer months reversing towards the end of the year. In both instances, it made the easing the Fed delivered in response look silly in hindsight.
Source: TradingView, FOREX.com
So while there is still plenty of important data to come before the Fed's September meeting, another hot inflation print would make it much harder for markets to keep whittling away at rate hike expectations, which according to futures markets have retraced from as much as 62 basis points of hikes out to the June meeting next year to 42.5 basis points following Friday’s payrolls report.
It is also worth noting that while the US economy is hardly weak on a levels basis, data is no longer smashing expectations as it was earlier this year. Citi’s US economic surprise index has rolled over over recent weeks, showing the run of upside surprises has slowed. In contrast, key data out of Japan has been running hot relative to forecasts.
Source: TradingView, FOREX.com
Retail sales, Treasury auctions provide wildcards Outside of the inflation data, Friday’s US retail sales report is probably the next most important release on the US calendar, providing a read on how consumers are holding up in this inflationary environment. The key question is whether we see a continuation of the strength evident in broader household spending during the second quarter.
Traders should also keep an eye on demand at this week’s Treasury auctions, particularly the 10 and 30-year tenors. Yields at the back end of the curve have lifted to multi-year highs, so the question is whether those higher yields are enough to bring investors back to the table.
If they aren’t, that would speak volumes about how Treasuries are being perceived by the investment community. Weak demand despite materially higher yields would only reinforce concerns that something more structural may be at play.
Source: TradingView (US EDT shown)
Little on the Japanese calendar to shake things up On the Japanese side of the ledger, there is not a lot to get excited about. We do get the corporate goods price index, where upstream inflationary pressures have remained very elevated, particularly on the import side, but rarely does the release move the yen meaningfully.
More recently, the factors out of Japan that have had the greatest influence have been fiscal announcements, major JGB auction results and leaks to the media in the lead-up to important BOJ meetings, where they are often used to massage market expectations. We don’t really have any of those factors this week.
Outside of renewed intervention, it is therefore hard to see much on the Japanese calendar shaking things up, especially with a public holiday on Tuesday which may mean volumes and activity are weaker than normal.
Geopolitics and energy still matter Japan’s dependence on imported energy means USD/JPY remains sensitive to any major development in the Gulf that pushes energy prices sharply higher. From a terms of trade perspective, that would typically be negative for the yen, while energy security also remains an economic risk even with Japan holding large stockpiles.
The influence of the conflict on broader markets has diminished, but any major positive or negative development around peace talks still has the potential to move energy prices quickly and, by extension, USD/JPY.
Yen shorts have taken a hit
Source: LSEG Workstation, FOREX.com
The latest CFTC positioning data gives a sense of the damage done to yen shorts following the dual intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury in late July, and potentially again very early last week.
This only captures futures positioning reported through the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report, so it is not a complete read on positioning across the entire market. Even so, leveraged funds cut their net short yen position from 101,990 contracts the week before to 60,825 in the latest report, a retracement of around 40%.
So while positioning remains quite short, a sizeable amount of the excess has already been cleansed out of the market. That suggests the positioning backdrop is no longer as lopsided or as vulnerable to another sharp squeeze as it was before the intervention episode.
USD/JPY dips still being bought aggressively
Source: TradingView
Intervention in late July saw USD/JPY take out multiple long-running uptrends, including the one dating back to the April 2025 Liberation Day risk rout. But, as was the case earlier this year, the initial knee-jerk move lower has already started to reverse.
Monday’s daily candle looked like capitulation, suggesting weak hands had been flushed out while warning of the potential for upside. That started to materialise over the latter part of the week and, even with Friday’s payrolls report soft on the surface, USD/JPY still managed to close the week above where it started.
On the daily chart, the 200-day moving average at 158.06 is the important level to watch around where the pair now trades. USD/JPY spent time either side of it last week before breaking higher, only to push back below it on Friday. Even with the initial move lower following payrolls, the size of the downside wick on Friday’s candle was noticeable. It was also an inside day, so there was no major technical signal generated. The price action suggests dips are still being bought aggressively.
RSI (14) and MACD remain bearish when it comes to directional risks, but those signals have been distorted by intervention. The price action is telling a different story. Unless we get a soft US inflation print this week, the near-term directional risks look skewed higher, even with the threat of renewed intervention.
The weekly chart also points in that direction. Following the intervention episode earlier this year, USD/JPY printed a large bearish candle, followed by a long-legged doji, before pushing sharply higher. We now have the first two parts of a broadly similar sequence again, although this time the latest candle is closer to a dragonfly doji. After such a pronounced move lower, that warns the path of least resistance may again be higher rather than lower in the near term.
On the topside, 158.58 is the first level to watch. That was around the high hit last week and also corresponds roughly with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August unwind. Beyond that, the broken uptrend from the April 2025 low comes in around 159, followed by the 100-day moving average near 160, also a key psychological level. Above that, 160.73, the former record high set earlier this year that later flipped to support in June, is another important level to watch. A move much beyond there would likely raise the risk of renewed intervention, making further upside look difficult near term.
On the downside, Friday’s low around 156.68 is the first level to watch. Beneath that, 155.60 remains important, having repeatedly soaked up supply when USD/JPY traded beneath it earlier this year.
Gold futures (GC.F) chart: buyers reclaim the declining channel, with 4,375-4,381 the key barrier before 4,500-4,525.
Looking at today’s chart, we can see that despite yesterday’s pullback following the unsuccessful attempt to break above the upper boundary of the red declining channel, buyers quickly regained control and pushed the market higher once again.
The result?
Gold not only climbed back above the red declining channel, but also reached our previously discussed upside target based on the inverse head & shoulders pattern (congratulations to everyone who stayed with the bullish scenario and benefited from the move!).
So, what comes next? If buyers manage to close both today’s session and the entire week above 4381 – confirming the close above the major bearish gap – our next upside target from yesterday’s Lab will likely become their next destination:
“(…)The next upside target remains 4372, followed by the major bearish gap between 4375-4381, which continues to represent the final technical barrier before a potential move toward 4500-4525.
Momentum indicators remain on the buyers’ side, increasing the probability of further strength – especially if today’s session closes above the red declining channel. (…)”
What could slow the bulls down? An invalidation of the earlier breakout above the red declining channel.
Copper Copper futures (HG.F) chart: the failed breakout shifts attention to 656 support and the 651-655/647-650 zones below.
Yesterday’s quote sets the tone for today – so let’s start there:
“(…) Nevertheless, please keep in mind that a daily close below 669 would be the first signal that a deeper correction may be starting. (…)”
Looking at today’s chart, we can see that despite yesterday’s rally and a new all-time high, buyers failed to hold prices above 669, with the session closing at 670.
As a result, we saw an invalidation of the earlier breakout above the previous highs and above the upper boundary of the green ascending channel, giving sellers fresh technical arguments.
The result?
Copper extended its correction, suggesting that we could see a test of the previously broken upper boundary of the orange consolidation around 656.
If buyers fail to defend that area, sellers may shift their focus toward the nearest bullish gaps at 651-655 and 647-650, which together now create the nearest support zone.
Today’s Takeaways Dollar (DX.F) Watch today’s daily close – it will likely set the tone for Monday. A close back above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the lower boundary of the red declining channel would invalidate the developing bearish engulfing pattern. If sellers stay in control, watch the 99.18-99.26 bullish gap, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 99.00. Gold (GC.F) Buyers have already reached our previously discussed upside target. Watch the 4375-4381 bearish gap. A weekly close above 4381 keeps the door open toward 4500-4525. An invalidation of the breakout above the red declining channel would weaken the bullish outlook. Copper (HG.F) Buyers lost the breakout above the previous highs and the green ascending channel. Watch 656 first. Below that, the next support zone comes in at 651-655 and 647-650. Stay patient, respect the levels, and let the market show its hand before committing fresh risk. Have a wonderful weekend!
Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView For now, the 100-day moving average presents key resistance that could lead to a pullback or consolidation. However, the next higher target is defined by the 200-day moving average, now near $4,496. It represents a more significant resistance zone given its long-term timeframe and therefore may be tested before the current advance reaches its conclusion. The path toward that higher target, however, may depend on how gold responds to the initial resistance near $4,392.
Trendline Recovery Strengthens the Bullish Case Friday’s extension of the rally confirmed a recovery above the long-term uptrend line that had shown signs of resistance over the past couple of days. A recovery above the trendline is another piece of bullish technical evidence for gold. It follows the recent reclaim of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, a breakout above a downtrend line, and a trend reversal signal on a move above the lower swing high at $4,203. Together, these developments strengthen the case that the broader trend has shifted back in favor of the bulls.
Next Test: $4,382-$4,392 Near-term support is Friday’s low of $4,230, especially since it aligns closely near the uptrend line, followed by the lower swing high at $4,203. Key dynamic support is indicated by the 50-day moving average near $4,152. The magnitude of any pullback will assist in gauging demand, and it may determine whether the 200-day moving average is tested, if it doesn’t occur during this initial sharp advance.
Thus, Friday’s strong close not only reinforces the recent bullish reversal but also sets up the next test: whether buyers can push through the $4,382-$4,392 resistance zone without a meaningful pullback, keeping the higher $4,496 target in view.
In 2026, trading desks lean on machine learning models that scan headlines and macro data in real time alongside years of price history, and gold has become one of the more interesting tests of what that shift actually changes. The metal has swung wildly this year, trading above $5,000 an ounce before pulling back hard, and every leg of that move got attributed to something. The tools analyzing gold have gotten faster. Whether the reasons people actually buy and sell it have changed much is a separate question.
How AI has changed the way Gold tradesAI-driven systems can process macroeconomic data and market sentiment alongside historical price action, all at a speed no analyst could match a decade ago. Investment funds already lean on these models to rebalance portfolios and time entries around major economic releases, and some mining companies are even using similar tools to locate new deposits rather than trade the metal at all. That kind of speed matters most around scheduled events, such as a Fed meeting, where prices used to take minutes to reprice and now move within seconds of a headline crossing the wire.
Yet one detailed look at AI's growing footprint in the gold market settled on a fairly modest conclusion. The technology is a tool, not an oracle, because gold's price still depends on decisions no dataset can fully anticipate.
When algorithms amplify human emotionIn February 2026, gold lost more than 3% in a single trading session after concerns about an AI-related selloff spread from tech stocks into the broader market. Analysts described algorithmic traders as amplifiers of that drop rather than its cause. Silver fell even harder the same day, losing over 11%, which fits a pattern where fast-moving systems accelerate a mood that's already forming instead of creating one from scratch.
Key Takeaway: Algorithms can move faster than people, but they're still reacting to the same fear and momentum that has always driven sharp pullbacks.
The human decisions behind Gold's biggest movesSome of gold's most consequential buying in recent years came from an unmistakably human source: central banks. Annual purchases averaged around 525 tonnes between 2014 and 2016, before that figure more than doubled to 1,136 tonnes in 2022, in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as governments moved to protect their reserves from geopolitical risk no model had priced in ahead of time.
Retail traders lean on a similar instinct on a smaller scale. Sentiment analysis remains one of the most common gold trading strategies because investor behavior in this market is still shaped by fear and greed rather than pure math. Watching how bullish or bearish that mood gets often says more about gold's next move than any single economic release.
Key Takeaway: The biggest swings in gold demand, from central bank reserves to retail positioning, still start with a human read on risk.
What this means for Gold investorsNone of this makes AI irrelevant. It means faster analysis and tighter pricing, and that will keep changing how trades get executed on any given day. What it hasn't done is replace the underlying reasons people turn to gold in the first place, which have more to do with trust and uncertainty than with any model's output. A trading desk can automate execution, but it can't automate why someone decides gold belongs in their portfolio to begin with.
For investors weighing how much of that decision to hand off to a machine, the case for holding physical gold hasn't really changed shape.
The British Pound retreats against the Japanese Yen, down about 0.24%, as the Yen is poised to end the week on a higher note. However, GBP/JPY is poised to finish the week with minimal gains, trading at 212.64.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/JPY trades sideways, though slightly tilted to the downside, following an intervention in the FX markets by US and Japanese authorities. Worth noting that after soft US jobs data, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she agreed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that FX markets had been affected by moves rather than fundamentals.
This pushed GBP/JPY to the day's low of 211.47, slightly below the 200-day SMA of 211.91, but buyers reclaimed the latter and surpassed 212.00. After the rebound, the cross is about to end Friday’s session near the highs, but it will face key resistance at the 100-day SMA at 214.48, followed by the 50-day SMA at 215.42.
In the event of further losses, the first GBP/JPY support is 212.00. Below the next support is the 200-day SMA at 211.91, followed by 211.00. Beneath emerges the August 3 low of 209.58.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.11%-0.02%0.25%-0.50%-0.42%0.10%0.13%EUR0.11%0.08%0.38%-0.38%-0.18%0.20%0.25%GBP0.02%-0.08%-0.09%-0.48%-0.31%0.11%0.14%JPY-0.25%-0.38%0.09%-0.68%-0.52%-0.06%-0.04%CAD0.50%0.38%0.48%0.68%0.17%0.64%0.62%AUD0.42%0.18%0.31%0.52%-0.17%0.40%0.44%NZD-0.10%-0.20%-0.11%0.06%-0.64%-0.40%0.04%CHF-0.13%-0.25%-0.14%0.04%-0.62%-0.44%-0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
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Silver price surges nearly 3% as it clears the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62.13, and reclaims the $63.00 figure as it struggles to surpass key resistance seen at $63.28, the July 6 high.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookSilver trades sideways, but bulls are gaining traction, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI crossed above its 50-neutral level, poised to hit the overbought 70 level, rather sooner than later.
This suggests that the white metal could test higher prices, once it crosses the $65.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 100-day SMA at $68.98, before testing the psychological $70.00 mark. Once cleared, the 200-day SMA becomes the next ceiling level at $71.22.
If XAG/USD retreats below the $63.00, a retracement towards the 50-day SMA is on the cards. On further weakness, Silver could fall towards the $60.00 mark, followed by the August 3 low of $56.57.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
USD/NGN weekly price chart showing the multi-year symmetrical triangle, EMA cluster (20/50/100/200), and price coiling near ₦1,361 support. Source: TradingView. In addition to this, the inflow of foreign money into the Nigerian economy is playing a big role in strengthening the naira. According to the CBN’s 2025 Annual Report, foreign exchange inflows increased by 13.8% to a record high of $109.86 billion in 2025. These increased inflows were a result of more non-oil commodities being exported out of the country, foreign investors pumping money into the economy, and over-the-counter purchases. These inflows have ultimately strengthened the naira by boosting dollar supply.
₦1,211 Support Comes Into Focus The USD/NGN weekly chart shows three out of four EMA lines lying close together and compressing in a manner that indicates the market is coiled for a near-term breakout. The fourth EMA line, which is the 200 EMA, lies far below the others at around ₦1,211. If price breaches the symmetrical triangle downwards, and closes a weekly candle in the ₦1,300 region, we can expect a test of that 200 EMA as a support at ₦1,211.
The weekly RSI reads 43.28 at the time of writing, which is slightly below the average mark and leaves enough room for price to run before hitting either extremity of the full RSI range.
The immediate risk for naira bulls is a drop in oil revenue, as the country’s economy relies heavily on foreign currency inflows through the export of its crude oil. Weak oil sales means weaker foreign reserves, as most of the Central Bank’s forex savings are built from the proceeds of crude exports. The country’s heavy dependence on imported goods doesn’t help, and the more goods need to be imported, the more naira is sold to buy dollars so that traders can pay for the foreign goods.
EUR/JPY trades on the back foot on Friday, easing away even as the Euro (EUR) posts solid gains against the US Dollar (USD). The Japanese currency surged suddenly near the start of the American session after a surprisingly weak United States (US) employment report. But the cross recovered much of those losses fairly quickly.
Japan and the United States conducted coordinated Yen-buying intervention last Friday, a rare bilateral action, and that memory is enough to make traders reluctant to sell the Yen into a US Dollar that fell over 1% against the Yen during the early American session on Friday. The Yen now drifts well away from the 40-year low it reached in July.
The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to adopt a cautious stance after leaving interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting. Markets currently expect only one additional rate hike before the end of the year, with a lower chance of a second increase.
Iran's parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused US President Donald Trump of staging "theater diplomacy" on Thursday, and under the draft plan reported by Fars, US and Israeli ships would be barred from the Strait of Hormuz. Flows through the waterway are unlikely to return to pre-war levels any time soon even if Iran and Oman finalize their framework. For an economy that imports almost all of its energy through that route, higher and less certain Crude prices erode Japan's terms of trade, which is the mechanism that drove the Yen to four-decade lows in the first place.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, EUR/JPY trades at 182.00, retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias as it holds below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 182.17 and the 100-period SMA at 184.70. The pair is caught under a nearby horizontal cap at 182.13, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41 suggests subdued momentum rather than aggressive selling, hinting at a consolidative tone beneath these overhead levels.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 182.13, followed by the 20-period SMA at 182.17. Asustained break above this cluster would open the way toward the next barrier at 182.69 before the broader 100-period SMA near 184.70.
On the downside, initial support aligns at 181.76, ahead of a lower horizontal floor at 181.30 where the cross found support early in the American session on Friday. A decisive breach there would reinforce the bearish bias and expose deeper retracement levels in the coming sessions.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The Pound Sterling edges higher by some 0.29%, yet it remains trading sideways, unable to decisively crack 1.3500 after reaching a weekly peak of 1.3506, and has retreated to the 1.3490 area.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe technical picture shows that GBP/USD is consolidating, yet it is slightly tilted to the upside after clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3406. Market structure suggests the uptrend might resume once buyers reclaim the July 15 swing high at 1.3558, opening the door to a test of 1.3600.
In that scenario, the next area of interest for GBP/USD would be the May 11 swing high at 1.3653, followed by 1.3700.
On the flip side, if GBP/USD remains below 1.3500, look for a pullback towards August’s 3 low of the day (LOD) at 1.3417. A breach of the latter will expose the convergence of the 100- and 200-day SMAs at 1.3406/05, followed by the 50-day SMA At 1.3365.
GBP/USD Price Chart – Daily
GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.12%-0.01%0.24%-0.54%-0.38%0.13%0.13%EUR0.12%0.11%0.38%-0.41%-0.15%0.28%0.26%GBP0.01%-0.11%-0.06%-0.53%-0.27%0.14%0.14%JPY-0.24%-0.38%0.06%-0.72%-0.48%-0.01%-0.02%CAD0.54%0.41%0.53%0.72%0.25%0.72%0.68%AUD0.38%0.15%0.27%0.48%-0.25%0.40%0.40%NZD-0.13%-0.28%-0.14%0.00%-0.72%-0.40%0.00%CHF-0.13%-0.26%-0.14%0.02%-0.68%-0.40%-0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Gold Talking Points: After a rough six-month outing gold prices rallied in a very big way over the past week. With a weekly gain over 7% as of this writing, it’s the largest such move since January, just before the metal had topped-out, begging the question as to whether buyers are in control and, if so, might that shift have carryover to other markets such as stocks or Treasuries.
After coming into the year with a full head of steam, gold spent much of the past six months in varying forms of distress. But, along the way, it built a falling wedge pattern – which is often approached with the aim of bullish reversals. And over the past week, that is what has so far shown up, as buyers took a step forward in a big way, and prices are re-testing a prior point of resistance that had previously held the highs back in October of last year.
Gold Weekly Chart – The Breakout Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview What’s Behind the Drive? I looked at this in the five charts for the week ahead video for StoneX, and I’ve linked that below, but my opinion is that gold is looking or trying to look around the next corner. And after Kevin Warsh seemed to talk a big game on being hawkish at last week’s FOMC meeting without any actual follow-through, gold markets are moving on the basis of a less-hawkish Fed. Now, this doesn’t mean that there won’t be fracture, as we saw at last month’s vote with three dissents actually looking for a hike. And since then, we’ve heard from other Fed members like Paulson or Cook that sounds as though they could also be in that dissent camp voting for a hike before too long.
But, from where we’re at now, it looks as though that inflationary pressure may not be as strong as it was a month or two ago, and this puts perhaps even more pressure on the CPI report for next week.
Gold Leads the Top 5 Charts for Next Week
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Gold Structure At this point the daily chart shows the theme quite cleanly, as the sell-off of lower-lows and lower-highs ran into consolidation through the month of July. Notably – the metal had held above $4k until just after the June FOMC meeting when the bank sounded hawkish and that’s ultimately what brought the test of the big figure in.
But, perhaps more important is what didn’t happen after that, as buyers disallowed for breakdowns and price merely paused at that level while consolidating with lower-highs and higher-lows.
It’s the last part of that statement that is most important, as this signified a change-of-pace, which also showed on the weekly chart with the past two weeks showing as higher-lows. And then after this week’s open, bulls wouldn’t even allow for a $4k re-test, as support played at the familiar level of $4023 before the breakout ramped up in a big way.
Also notable from the daily chart is how those prior lower-highs during the consolidation phase now set up as possible higher-lows for the bullish trend scenario.
Gold Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Gold Near-Term Strategy The below four-hour chart is the one that I had shared in the above video, and given how strong the bullish move priced-in, there’s a few different scenarios worth entertaining.
Ideally, bullish momentum would remain so aggressive that pullbacks are mild or moderate, but given the intensity of the CPI release next week, the realm of possible setups should be widened. For nearby supports, both $4300 and $4250 stand out, as does the $4200-$4220 zone.
But, should profit taking drive a deeper pullback, support from around $4160-$4180 could be workable, as could the $4100-$4116 zone.
If buyers fail to hold the move for an almost $300 pullback, it’ll start to look like bulls had failed to take advantage of that rally.
Gold Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
Gold (XAU/USD) skyrockets on Friday, gaining over 2.30% in the day and more than 7% in the week after US jobs data was mixed, with a softer Nonfarm Payrolls print while the Unemployment Rate remained steady. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,340 after hitting $4,371 earlier in the day, its highest level since June 17.
XAU/USD surges over 7% for the week on weak NFP, lower US yieldsUS jobs data disappointed investors after July Nonfarm Payrolls showed that the economy shed 23K jobs, missing forecasts for an 80K job gain. Payrolls for May and June were also downwardly revised, combined, slashing 103K people from the workforce, lower than previously reported. Even though the data justifies the Federal Reserve's (Fed) reluctance to increase interest rates to tackle inflation, the Unemployment Rate also ticked lower, from 4.2% to 4.1%.
The data pushed US Treasury yields lower and the Greenback as well. The US 10-year Treasury yield is down two basis points at 4,687%, a tailwind for bullion prices.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the American currency against six other currencies, is down 0.42% to 99.54.
The Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that “jobs data was very consistent with a sector in weak balance.” He added that the report depicts the labor market as being in a “low hire, low fire” scenario.
Dip in energy prices hurts Fed hike betsGeopolitics continued to play a role in the financial markets, which turned moderately optimistic about the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said that he believed that the war with Iran could be over soon.
Despite this, Iran says the proposed agreement with Oman, which reportedly would ban US and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait, would only establish a temporary shipping route and would not amount to a full reopening of the waterway.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, is flat during the day around $78 per barrel, but is down almost 9.9% for the week.
The swaps market had priced in a lower probability that the Federal Reserve would raise rates at its September meeting. The odds stand at 30%, down from 58% a day ago, while there’s a 70% chance the central bank will keep rates unchanged, according to Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalTraders will be watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for July on Wednesday. Economists expect inflation to decrease slightly from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY, with Core CPI also dipping from 2.6% to 2.5% YoY.
On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI), a key input to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will be released.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold challenges 100-day SMA as bulls target the 200-day SMAGold price seems poised to turn bullish as the yellow metal surpassed the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,152, and it is on its way to challenge the 100-day SMA at $4,390. Momentum has turned bullish, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). With that said, the path of least resistance is upwards.
The next area of interest would be the 200-day SMA at $4,390. If breached, the next key resistance is $4,450, followed by the $4,500 mark.
Downwards, bullion’s first support level is the July 6 high, now turned support at $4,202. If this level is broken, the next targets are the 50-day SMA at $4,152 and $4,100. Below that, the August 3 daily low of $4,019 acts as further support.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
EUR/USD edges higher on Friday, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) as traders scale back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets following a disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1562, hovering near a seven-week high.
Price action, however, has been confined to a narrow range for more than a week, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) capping immediate upside attempts after the pair staged a rebound from below 1.1400 in late July.
Still, the near-term outlook remains bullish, as the dovish repricing of Fed rate expectations and optimism surrounding peace in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could keep the US Dollar on the defensive. The EUR/USD recovery faces its next major test from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due next week.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the 50-day SMA at 1.1471 offers immediate support, followed by the 1.1400 psychological mark.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 points to bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays positive, which hints that buyers retain an edge as long as price holds over the short-term average.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1568, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1629. A sustained break above these levels would expose the horizontal barriers at 1.1700 and 1.1800.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels EUR/USD has rallied more than 2% from the yearly low after last week's outside-week reversal. The recovery is now confronting it’s the first technical hurdle since breaking out of the July range. Weekly momentum is attempting to confirm a broader shift after diverging into the yearly low. Holding above the July breakout zone would reinforce the recovery, larger test of yearly downtrend is eyed just higher. Resistance 1.1578, 1.1639/49 (key), 1.1746/75- Support 1.1469/83, 1.1355/94 (key), 1.1228 EUR/USD has extended its recovery from the yearly low after last week's outside-week reversal triggered a decisive breakout from the July consolidation range. The rally has now reached the first major resistance zone since the June decline began, making this an important test of whether buyers can sustain the improving technical backdrop. With weekly momentum showing signs of turning higher and key U.S. inflation data on tap next week, traders will be watching closely for confirmation on whether this recovery has room to develop into a broader trend reversal. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that the July opening range was set just above pivotal support and that, “From a trading standpoint, the April downtrend remains intact while below 1.1649, but the bears are vulnerable while above 1.1355.” EUR/USD spent more than five-weeks coiling within the July range before breaking out into the close of the month. An outside weekly reversal off the lows last week has extended more than 2.2% off the yearly low with the rally now testing the first major resistance hurdle on the back of a weaker than expected US employment report.
EUR/USD Weekly RSI
The immediate focus is on the weekly close with respect to the January low at 1.1578. Note that weekly momentum has is attempting to break above 50 for the first time since May after marking divergence into the yearly low. A momentum trigger extending off the 2025 high-close remains in place and may offer further guidance in the weeks ahead.
Initial weekly support now rests at the July breakout zone near 1.1469/83 with key support steady at 1.1355/65- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance and the April high-week close. The median-line of the broader 2022 uptrend converges on this level and a break / weekly close below would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the January downtrend. Subsequent support rests at the 2026 high close at 1.1228 and 1.1110/64.
A confirmed breakout from here exposes the next major resistance zone at the 61.8% retracement of the April decline and the 52-week moving average at 1.1639/49. Note that the 61.8% parallel converges on this threshold next week and strength beyond this slope would suggest a more significant low was registered in June. Ultimately a breach above the 1.1745/75 is needed to invalidate the yearly downtrend and put the bulls back in control.
Bottom line: EUR/USD rebounded off major support last week with the recovery now testing the first technical hurdle. From a trading standpoint, a good level to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stop- losses would need to be limited to the 1.1469 IF price is heading higher on this stretch. Look for a larger reaction near 1.1650 IF reached.
Today's weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report prompted markets to scale back expectations for a September rate hike, with Fed funds futures now implying a 56% probability the Fed leaves policy unchanged next month. The focus now shifts to Wednesday's CPI report, which will provide the next major test for the inflation outlook. With labor market conditions showing signs of moderation, softer inflation data would reinforce the case for a less restrictive policy path, reducing the dollar's yield advantage and supporting the euro's recovery. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.
Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Gold (XAU/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) British Pound (GBP/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Key Points:EUR/USD climbed above the 1.1550 level as traders focused on U.S. job market data. USD/CAD moved lower as precious metals markets rallied. USD/JPY pulled back amid falling Treasury yields.
U.S. Dollar Is Under Pressure After Disappointing NFP Report
DXY 070826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders focus on the surprising Non Farm Payrolls report. The report indicated that U.S. economy lost -23,000 jobs in July, compared to analyst forecast of +80,000.
Unemployment Rate declined from 4.2% in June to 4.1% in July as Participation Rate decreased from 61.5% to 61.4%.
The weak Non Farm Payrolls report put significant pressure on the American currency as traders reduced bets on hawkish Fed. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 58.1% chance that Fed will keep rates unchanged at the next meeting in September.
The nearest support level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 99.25 – 99.40 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the 99.25 level, it will head towards the next support level at 98.60 – 98.75.
EUR/USD Tests New Highs As Traders Focus On NFP Data EUR/USD 070826 4h Chart EUR/USD gained ground as traders reacted to U.S. job market data. In the EU, traders focused on Germany’s Exports report. The report indicated that Exports increased by +0.9% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst consensus of +0.2%.
In case EUR/USD settles above the 1.1550 level, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.1600 – 1.1615. A move above the 1.1615 level will push EUR/USD towards the next resistance at 1.1685 – 1.1700.
GBP/USD Tests The 1.3500 Level GBP/USD 070826 4h Chart GBP/USD moved higher as traders focused on dovish changes in Fed policy outlook and reacted to Lloyds House Price Index report from the UK. The report indicated that house prices increased by +0.1% year-over-year in July, compared to analyst consensus of +0.4%.
GBP/USD moved above the resistance at 1.3465 – 1.3480 and is trying to settle above the 1.3500 level. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will head towards the next resistance at 1.3550 – 1.3565. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum in the near term.
USD/CAD Tests Support At 1.3920 – 1.3935
USD/CAD 070826 4h Chart USD/CAD pulled back as traders reacted to the strong rally in precious metals markets. Gold climbed above the $4300 level, while silver settled above $63.00. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving higher in today’s trading session.
Traders also focused on the Unemployment Rate report from Canada. The report showed that Unemployment Rate declined from 6.5% in June to 6.4% in July, compared to analyst consensus of 6.5%.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.3920 – 1.3935. If USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.3920 level, it will head towards the next support level at 1.3825 – 1.3840.
USD/JPY Retreats As Treasury Yields Fall USD/JPY 070826 4h Chart USD/JPY moved lower as traders focused on falling Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.20% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.65%.
If USD/JPY settles below the 157.00 level, it will move towards the support level at 154.50 – 155.00. On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 157.50 – 158.00 will push USD/JPY towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 159.50 – 160.00 range.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
Gold (XAU/USD) is gaining momentum on Friday, trading above $4,350 after the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Bitcoin (BTC) shows signs of a steady recovery above $65,000, buoyed by growing risk-on sentiment.
US Nonfarm Payrolls fall by 23K in JulyThe US NFP dropped by 23,000 in July, falling short of consensus forecasts of an 80,000 gain. This drop comes after June’s modest increase of 20,000, revised from the initial 57,000, highlighting a significant loss of momentum in the labor market.
Additional data from the report revealed the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, while the Labor Force Participation Rate slipped to 61.4% from 61.5%.
Meanwhile, annual wage growth, tracked by Average Hourly Earnings, moderated to 3.2% annually, down from 3.4%, signaling softer wage pressure.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows a subsequent shift in monetary policy expectations. Market participants are now pricing in a 55.9% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) leaves interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range in September. Rate hike bets have moderated to 44.1%.
FedWatch tool | Source: CME GroupMeanwhile, risk appetite has improved but only marginally, with sentiment currently in the Fear territory at 29, up from 25 in the Extreme Fear territory on Thursday, according to the Fear & Greed Index. If sustained, strong sentiment would mean risk assets are attractive to investors, thus raising the odds of a sustained recovery.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: AlternativeTechnical analysis: Bitcoin edges higher above $65,000Bitcoin holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $64,669 and the upward-sloping trendline support near $62,921, which keeps the near-term bias moderately bullish despite the broader consolidation. The Parabolic SAR at $62,275 reinforces the underlying demand, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 on the daily chart and a mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hint that buyers still retain control, although upside momentum appears measured rather than impulsive.
BTC/USDT daily chartImmediate support lies at the recent pivot around $65,000, followed by the 50-day EMA at $64,669 and then the rising trendline near $62,921, ahead of the Parabolic SAR level at $62,275. On the flip side, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day EMA at $66,986, with a more significant barrier at the 200-day EMA around $73,382, where a sustained break would be needed to reopen a stronger bullish extension in the days ahead.
Technical outlook: Gold climbs as buyers tighten gripGold holds a constructive near-term bias as it remains above the 50-week, 100-week and 200-week EMAs at $4,215, respectively, and has broken above the prior downward resistance trendline now offering support near $4,060.
Still, upside progress is tempered by the Parabolic SAR at $4,441 acting as immediate resistance, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative reading and the RSI hovering around the neutral 50 mark, hinting at a consolidative rather than impulsive bullish tone.
XAU/USD weekly chartOn the topside, initial resistance is defined by the Parabolic SAR at $4,441, where a sustained break would open the way for a more decisive advance. On the downside, the first layer of support lies at the broken trendline barrier turned floor around $4,060, followed by dynamic support at the 50-week EMA at $4,215 and deeper medium-term cushions at the 100-week EMA at $3,777, levels that collectively reinforce the broader bullish structure as long as they remain intact.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
Last week, gold posted a modest July gain, which has already given buyers a significant boost this week. With prices up 6.5% since the start of the week, gold has confirmed a major technical breakout, bringing to an end the downtrend that began in February. The price rebounded from the key psychological level of $4,000 – where the correction also ended last October – and from the 61.8% retracement of the 2022–2026 rally, reinforcing the significance of the reversal signal.
The bulls also have the strength with which gold broke through the 50-day moving average earlier this week in their favour; this average had served as support for the uptrend since the start of 2025, before turning into local resistance in March. If this is not a false breakout, this line could once again act as support for the medium-term bullish trend.
That said, on weekly timeframes, the bulls still need to do some groundwork. During the latest rally, the price approached but failed to break through the 50-week moving average – an important signal line for the long-term trend. It currently stands near $4,400, whilst at $4,500, there is another potential area of resistance that reversed the trend in December and March.
All things considered, we expect an interesting battle in gold this coming week, with the struggle intensifying following the release of US CPI and PPI data. The path to 4,500 may prove relatively easy, but beyond that, we should brace ourselves for a very significant tug-of-war.
A dull week ends with the EUR/USD pair surging to a fresh multi-week high, trading around 1.1560 ahead of the close. Optimism about an end to the Middle East conflict dominated the headlines throughout the first half of the week, only to be followed by the usual delays and diluted hopes.
War headlines keep shaping sentimentUnited States (US) President Donald Trump kept repeating throughout the week that he believed that the war with Iran would be over “soon.” Market players, however, believe the ongoing pause in the Middle East crisis has more to do with reports suggesting the US Army is running out of highly accurate long-range missiles after its five-month war with Iran.
Also, Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused Trump of staging “theater diplomacy,” accusing the US of bullying and breaking promises. Tehran presented a plan on how to manage the Strait of Hormuz, which includes blocking the critical passage to US and Israeli ships. Traffic through the critical passage remains restrained, while skirmishes between different Middle East countries continue.
On a positive note, Oil prices remained within familiar levels, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading around $77 as the week comes to an end.
United States weak labor market?Markets also took note of the US labor market health, with soft readings coupled with persistent inflation-related concerns weighing on the US Dollar (USD). ISM published the July Purchasing Managers’ Index, which showed business activity in the country remained in expansionary territory, with the Manufacturing Index printing at 55.6, and the Services PMI climbing to 54.1. The reports, however, also showed that the Price Paid Indexes linked to both sectors came in higher than anticipated and above 70, hinting at persistent inflationary pressures.
Regarding employment figures, JOLTS Job Openings edged modestly lower in June, although hiring remained unchanged. The ADP Employment Change survey showed that the private sector added measly 44K new jobs in July, down from the 95K previous and the expected 70K, while the Challenger Job Cuts report showed that US-based employers announced 33,429 cuts in July, down from the 45,849 registered in June.
Finally, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday showed that the country lost 23K jobs in July while the June reading was downwardly revised to measly 20K from the original estimate of 57K. On a positive note, however, the Unemployment Rate shrank to 4.1%, its lowest in over a year, although the labor force Participation Rate also eased a tad, to 61.4% from the previous 61.5%.
Euro lacking life of its ownFinancial markets are all about sentiment and EUR/USD moved accordingly to USD strength/weakness, with the shared currency lacking life of its own.
Data from the Union was far from encouraging: Retail Sales in Germany fell 0.2% in June vs the previous 2.1% advance, while the Eurozone figure for the same month came in at -0.3%, down from the 0.4% advance posted in May. Also, the bloc Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4.6% in the year to June as expected, down from the previous 5.9%.
The Euro was unable to attract buyers despite European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warning that surging Oil prices could shape the September rate decision, hinting at an interest rate hike at the next meeting. Indeed, data supports the case for another hike, as euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.9% in July 2026, up from 2.8% in June according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
What’s next in the docketInflation takes center stage in the upcoming days, as the US will release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. Annual inflation, as measured by the CPI, is foreseen at 3.4%, slightly below the 3.5% posted in June. On the same day, Germany will unveil the final reading of the July Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), while the US will publish the July Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, previously at 5.5%. Friday will bring the first revision of the Eurozone Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), US Retail Sales and the preliminary estimate of the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
And of course, the focus will remain on Middle East developments and how Oil Prices react to headlines.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair turned bullish, according to technical readings in the daily chart, although it still faces some barriers before confirming a steeper advance. The pair holds above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which advances to 1.1453, but remains below the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1629, both flat. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north at 62, while the Momentum indicator also advances above its midline, suggesting ongoing bullish pressure despite the pair struggling to decisively reclaim its heavier moving averages overhead.
In the weekly chart, EUR/USD trades just under the 20-week SMA at 1.1566, which caps the upside and keeps the near-term tone neutral. The pair remains above both the 100-week SMA at 1.1316 and the 200-week SMA at 1.1041, suggesting a broadly constructive medium-term backdrop even as near-term momentum stalls. The Momentum indicator remains below its midline, while the RSI hovers near the 50 line, suggesting a lack of clear directional pressure and favoring consolidation over trend extension for now.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1569, with a stronger barrier at the 200-day SMA near 1.1629, where sellers could reassert control if tested. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-day SMA at 1.1453, and a daily close back under this short-term average would hint at fading upside momentum and open the door for a deeper pullback within the broader range.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
TD Securities strategists Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that strong discretionary and Asian buying is supporting Gold, even as CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) positioning has plateaued. They argue CTAs would likely add length only on a move toward $4,600/oz, while softer United States (US) jobs data, subdued energy prices and expectations that Chair Warsh stays on hold could reinforce a stagflation narrative that benefits Gold.
CTA thresholds and macro tailwinds"Precious metals holding on to gains. Flows have proven strong enough to maintain the upside in gold, but the bar remains high to see additional length from CTAs. Prices would need to make another material leg higher to the $4,600/oz region before CTAs buy more."
"This suggests macro discretionary and Asian appetite will need to continue their buying trends to keep the rally alive. Thus far, Asian appetite remains strong for the yellow metal with broad-based buying across cohorts on SHFE, and continued ETF inflows."
"Meanwhile, the much weaker-than-expected jobs report should see Fed pricing pressures ease, especially with energy prices remaining subdued alongside. These are the first signs of a material shift in the tides for precious metals, with discretionary appetite leading the recovery."
"Higher energy prices could still be a major hurdle, with US inflation data next week in focus. But if the market becomes convinced Chair Warsh won't hike anytime soon, any upside in energy prices could strengthen the stagflation narrative, adding further fuel to the gold bulls."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The U.S. dollar gets hit after a weaker-than-anticipated jobs number.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD spikes to 1.1557, piercing the 1.1550 resistance level after consolidating above the 200-period EMA near 1.1500. Source: TradingView The U.S. dollar has taken a bit of a hit early during the trading session on Friday as the jobs report came out negative. That was in contrast to the expectations of an addition of about 85,000 jobs. That of course had the markets going crazy for a moment, but when we look at the overall reaction in the euro, it made sense as we pierced the most recent resistance barrier.
But it looks like the market is revisiting that 1.1550 level. If it were to break down below there, that would, more likely than not, bring more questions than answers.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD breaks below 1.3950 after losing the 1.4000 level, with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 1.3980 now acting as resistance. Source: TradingView The U.S. dollar has fallen pretty significantly against the Canadian dollar, and that does make a certain amount of sense because they’re moving in two different directions from the employment standpoint. That being said, a huge part of Canada’s economy is very dependent on the U.S., so that is important.
The market is breaking below the 1.3950 level, and that could signify that perhaps things are starting to turn around a bit. But when looked at from the prism of the longer term, it is not until we get to the 1.39 level that we even have a 50% pullback. So, the recent rally higher and then the slow decay from here is typical behavior in this pair. Not much to look at other than it’s just more larger rangebound trading between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis USD/JPY trades at 157.75 after falling sharply from 163.00, with 160.00 as overhead resistance and 155.00 as support below. Source: TradingView The Japanese yen has rallied against the U.S. dollar initially, but we’ve seen a turnaround of some significance. It looks like traders are still willing to take the bet on that interest rate differential, and this, of course, has been a big pair as of late due to those interventions coming out of the United States and Japan.
It’s an interesting scenario that we find ourselves in as the market is trying to determine whether or not the intervention is something to fear, or if it just gave traders the opportunity to buy cheaper dollars. I myself have been long of this pair for a very long time, going back almost a year, and I looked at this as a potential buying opportunity when we broke down significantly. Whether or not that pans out remains to be seen, obviously, but the interest rate differential at the end of every day does attract traders.
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Last week, gold posted a modest July gain, which has already given buyers a significant boost this week. With prices up 6.5% since the start of the week, gold has confirmed a major technical breakout, bringing to an end the downtrend that began in February. The price rebounded from the key psychological level of $4,000 – where the correction also ended last October – and from the 61.8% retracement of the 2022–2026 rally, reinforcing the significance of the reversal signal.
The bulls also have the strength with which gold broke through the 50-day moving average earlier this week in their favour; this average had served as support for the uptrend since the start of 2025, before turning into local resistance in March. If this is not a false breakout, this line could once again act as support for the medium-term bullish trend.
That said, on weekly timeframes, the bulls still need to do some groundwork. During the latest rally, the price approached but failed to break through the 50-week moving average – an important signal line for the long-term trend. It currently stands near $4,400, whilst at $4,500, there is another potential area of resistance that reversed the trend in December and March.
All things considered, we expect an interesting battle in gold this coming week, with the struggle intensifying following the release of US CPI and PPI data. The path to 4,500 may prove relatively easy, but beyond that, we should brace ourselves for a very significant tug-of-war.
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Following a quiet opening to the week, Gold (XAU/USD) gathered bullish momentum and climbed to its highest level since mid-June above $4,300, supported by cooling geopolitical tensions and investors scaling back bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September. As the near-term technical outlook highlights a buildup in bullish momentum, July inflation data from the United States (US) will test investors’ commitment to an extended rally.
Gold rallies as markets reassess Fed policy outlookUS President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that he held off a planned "massive attack" and said that negotiations with Iran will resume on Monday. Crude Oil prices declined sharply at the weekly opening, easing inflation fears and helping Gold hold its ground.
The bullish action seen in Wall Street made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to gather strength on Tuesday and allowed XAU/USD to continue to inch higher. With the USD coming under additional selling pressure midweek, the precious metal rose more than 4% and posted its largest one-day gain since early February on Wednesday.
The Automatic Data Processing’s (ADP) monthly report showed that private sector payrolls increased by 44K in July, missing the market expectation of 70K. Additionally, the employment component of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell into the contraction territory at 47.4 from 51.2 in July. Falling Oil prices, combined with uninspiring US data, caused investors to reassess the probability of a Fed interest rate hike at the next meeting. With the CME FedWatch Tool’s probability for a September rate increase falling to about 55% from nearly 70% a week prior, US Treasury bond yields turned south and fuelled Gold’s impressive upsurge.
In the meantime, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Neel Kashkari, who voted for a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike at the July meeting, unexpectedly adopted a wary tone on policy tightening and further weighed on the USD.
The FXS Speechtracker scored Kashkari’s speech on Wednesday a 4.6/10, marking a notably softer tone relative to the historical average of 6.8/10. Kashkari’s emphasis that the goal is to bring down inflation without explicitly aiming to slow the economy, combined with the view that recent price pressure is largely supply-driven, and the remark about not calling for a dramatic increase in rates pointed to a nuanced, neutral posture rather than an aggressive tightening bias. The focus on the Committee’s communications stance and the value of explaining the reaction function suggested continued data-dependence and an openness to flexible policy signaling.
Commenting on Gold’s action, analysts at OCBC noted that Gold rose sharply as easing Middle East tensions pushed Oil prices lower, while US Treasury yields and the USD also eased. They added that “market expectations for Fed to hike in Sep has eased,” while the sharp move in the yellow metal “accelerated after prices cleared recent resistance, triggering technical buying and short covering.” According to OCBC, Gold’s strength now “suggests investors are increasingly pricing a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, a normalisation of Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, lower real interest rates and a softer USD,” providing a broad-based fundamental backdrop to the latest gains.
Following a consolidation phase on Thursday, Gold regathered its bullish momentum heading into the crucial US employment data and extended its weekly uptrend to further beyond $4,300.
Heading into the weekend, Gold advanced beyond $4,350 as the probability of a September rate hike declined further. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) declined by 23K in July. This print followed the 20K increase (revised lower from 57K) recorded in June and fell short of the market expectation for an increase of 80K by a wide margin.
Source: CME GroupGold investors await US inflation dataThe BLS will publish July inflation data on Wednesday. Investors expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 0.1% on a monthly basis, and see the core CPI increasing by 0.2% after staying unchanged in June.
In case the monthly core CPI rises at a faster pace than anticipated, the immediate reaction could cause investors to second-guess the probability of a September Fed policy hold. In this scenario, US T-bond yields could edge higher and cause Gold to correct lower. Conversely, the USD is likely to remain under pressure and leave the door open for another leg higher in Gold, if the monthly core CPI comes in below the market forecast.
Analysts at Commerzbank argue that the Fed’s near-term policy path remains highly contingent on the incoming inflation data. They note that “at its next meeting in September, the Fed will likely refrain from raising interest rates if inflation has begun to ease by then, and the July figures would not contradict such a scenario.” However, they caution that “inflation would likely also have to remain low in August to prevent the Fed from raising rates in September,” underscoring how little room there is for upside surprises.
Against this backdrop, Commerzbank highlights the political sensitivity around further tightening, stressing that whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh “can avoid an interest rate hike — which would certainly not be well-received by President Trump — depends heavily on whether inflation moves in the right direction soon,” and that “next week’s consumer price data will therefore attract a great deal of attention.”
At the same time, market participants will continue to pay close attention to developments in the Middle East. If the conflict between the US and Iran heats up again and Crude Oil prices turn north, with the US refusing to stop enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports or rejecting Iran and Oman’s joint effort to manage the Strait of Hormuz, Gold could have a difficult time preserving its bullish momentum.
Analysts at Rabobank caution that hopes for a swift resolution to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz may be misplaced. They argue that “a short-term deal to open up the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping is unlikely as both sides have very little common ground,” noting that such an arrangement “offers no permanent solutions for the key sticking points that the whole conflict centers around.” Even in the event that an agreement is reached, Rabobank stresses that it would merely “offer another 60-day window of free transits through Hormuz while further negotiations resume,” rather than a durable settlement. In their view, “if a deal is agreed, it could be a matter of time until either party expresses frustration with the negotiations again and markets are forced to price in another few weeks of geopolitical tension,” underscoring the potential for recurring bouts of volatility as the dispute drags on.
FXStreet Economic CalendarGold technical analysis: Bulls dominateThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart climbed to its highest level since late January and Gold broke above the descending trend line drawn from early March, highlighting a buildup in bullish momentum.
On the upside, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,390 aligns as the next important resistance level ahead of $4,495-$4,510 (200-day SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the March-August downtrend). If Gold manages to clear that latter resistance area, increasing technical buying pressure could pave the way for an extended rally toward $4,680 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).
Looking south, the immediate support area aligns at $4,300 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) before $4,150 (20-day SMA) and $4,100-$4,080 (broken descending trend line, 20-day SMA). If Gold returns below this area, the next line of defence before additional losses could be seen at $3,965 (static level, end-point of the downtrend).
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver (XAG/USD) jumps nearly 4% on Friday as buying accelerates following a decisive break above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $62. At the time of writing, the grey metal trades around $63.94 after briefly testing the $65 psychological mark.
The advance comes after disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures drag the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields lower. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.50, down nearly 0.45% on the day.
The US economy lost 23K jobs in July, even though experts had expected an increase of 80K. The job growth for June was also revised down to 20K from the previously reported 57K.
As a result, traders quickly trimmed bets on a September Fed rate hike, with the probability falling to around 42% from 67% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Technical analysis: Daily chart
On the daily chart, XAG/USD holds a bullish near-term bias as price stands above the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Momentum backs the constructive tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising into the low-60s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator extending further into positive territory with a firm bullish spread and expanding histogram.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at $65, ahead of the 100-day SMA barrier at $69. A sustained break above this cluster would open the way toward the higher horizontal resistance near $75.
On the downside, immediate support is found at the 50-day SMA at $62, followed by the psychological horizontal floor at $60. Below there, the 21-day SMA at $58 and the lower horizontal level at $55 form a deeper demand zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold goes racing higher after the jobs report in the US was weaker than anticipated. However, the move has been in play for a few days.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold breaks above the 200-day EMA near $4,297 on weak NFP data, with $4,000 as support and $4,600 as the next major level. The gold market has shot straight up in the air during the early part of the trading session here on Friday as the jobs numbers in the United States came out negative 28,000 instead of the expected addition of just a bit over 80,000. This has the U.S. dollar on its back foot, and of course, traders are starting to already think about the Federal Reserve having to loosen monetary policy. Bets will be shifting towards a looser Fed, and therefore stocks suddenly become a little bit more attractive right along with precious metals. We’re seeing this across the board.
Whether or not this sticks remains to be seen, but so far, it certainly appears as if traders are treating the old bad news is good news behavior as the way to go going forward. We have a while before the end of the session, but right now, this looks like the 200-day EMA offered a little bit of resistance previously, now looks to offer support. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Macro Catalysts and Technical Support The $4,600 level above was an area of importance previously, so one would wonder whether or not market memory comes into play in that scenario. With that being the case, this market remains one that will be noisy, one that will move on interest rates, and one that will have a lot of external pressures via geopolitics, the U.S. dollar, interest rate markets, and whether or not people want to hold going into the weekend.
It’s a strong start so far. We have definitively broken above the crucial 200-day EMA. Generally speaking, technical traders like that. We’ll see if that holds.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Silver is typically sensitive to interest rates, which, with a weaker-than-anticipated jobs number, gives a little bit of relief in the bond market. But rates are still somewhat elevated. And of course, we have all day to get through before we can see how this actually plays out.
External Noise Persists Concerns in the Middle East could throw the bond market into chaos again, and that in and of itself could get things going. If we can break above the 200-day EMA, that is a technically bullish signal and would cause some headlines. In that environment, we could be looking at a move to the $70 level, an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and is going to be worth paying close attention to, as these big figures typically do have some type of reaction and we have seen reactions there previously.
Short-term pullbacks at this point in time still look to be supported, but anything can happen. The 200-day EMA in and of itself is an area that technical traders will be watching.
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes that the Silver price has surged over 10% this week to USD 63.9 per troy ounce, its highest level since late June, pulling the gold/silver ratio back below 70. However, he highlights that solar-sector demand is set to decline for a second year, with Silver’s share in solar modules and total demand expected to fall despite still-elevated prices.
Solar sector drag on silver demand"Prices for silver, platinum and palladium also rose sharply in the wake of gold. Since the start of the week, the silver price has risen by more than 10% to USD 63.9 per troy ounce, its highest level since late June. As a result, the gold/silver ratio has fallen below 70 again."
"The tailwind for the silver price from the solar industry could be slowing down. BNEF estimates that 19% less silver will be used in the production of solar modules this year than last year."
"This would mark the second consecutive decline. The solar industry’s share of total silver demand is therefore expected to fall to 14%, down from 18% last year. BNEF’s assessment largely aligns with that of the Silver Institute in April, which also anticipates a significant decline in demand from the photovoltaic sector this year."
"BNEF attributes this to a reduction in the use of silver in silicon solar cells, which is expected to fall by a further 17% this year. This was likely triggered by the sharp rise in prices, which reached a record high of USD 120 per troy ounce at the end of January."
"The silver price has since fallen by roughly half, but is still around 65% higher than a year ago. According to BNEF, silver currently accounts for more than 17% of the production costs of a solar module, making it the largest component of material costs."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver (XAG) continues to follow our Elliott Wave outlook after completing the wave ((iv)) pullback at 60.8514. Buyers have driven the metal higher into the final five-wave advance in wave ((v)). The corrective rally is now entering its final stage. Although the short-term trend remains bullish, the Elliott Wave structure points to limited upside. We expect sellers to return once price reaches key Fibonacci resistance.
The 60-minute Elliott Wave chart shows Silver advancing in wave ((v)) of red wave C, which forms part of a larger wave (B) Flat correction. Fifth waves often extend toward the 1.236–1.618 Fibonacci external retracement of wave ((iv)). That gives an initial target between 63.42 and 64.24. Silver has already reached the 100% Fibonacci extension of wave A. However, buyers could still push prices toward the 161.8% Fibonacci extension near 67.00 before the rally ends.
Our Silver Elliott Wave forecast points to the 62.00–67.00 area as the next major resistance zone. We expect the current bounce to finish within the next 24 hours. After that, sellers should regain control and resume the larger bearish trend.
Overall, Silver remains bullish in the very short term while wave ((v)) continues to develop. Traders should avoid chasing prices into the earlier mentioned resistance zone. Instead, they should watch for signs of exhaustion before positioning for the next move lower.
Why weak payrolls broke the week’s stalemate, and why Hormuz, Saudi warnings and US-China tensions mean the move isn’t a simple green light for risk What’s happening: July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell -23K against expectations for an 85K gain, while May and June were revised down by a combined 103K and wage growth slowed. Markets responded by cutting September Fed hike odds to around 42%, sending the Dollar broadly lower, Gold decisively above $4,300 and Silver toward $65, while USD/JPY reversed back toward 155.Why it matters: This is the catalyst markets had been waiting for all week, but equities responded far more cautiously than the Dollar or precious metals, since outright payroll contraction alongside heavy downward revisions raises real growth concerns, not just rate-cut hopes. Markets may be approaching the point where bad economic news is still good for rates, but not automatically good for risk assets.Also today: Hormuz talks are progressing, but reported Iranian draft terms, barring US and Israeli vessels and threatening restrictions on countries deemed to have harmed Iran, look far more conditional than a genuine reopening. Saudi Arabia signed a new defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey while warning of possible coordinated attacks from Iran-aligned groups, raising the risk that diplomatic progress and military escalation are running on separate tracks at once. The US imposed a new 15% duty on polysilicon imports, extending US-China strategic competition into solar, semiconductor and AI-infrastructure supply chains just as China’s chip exports surged 117% year-over-year. NFP Delivers the Shock Markets Were Waiting For The US jobs report finally gave markets the catalyst they had been waiting for, sending the Dollar sharply lower and precious metals surging as traders scaled back expectations for another Fed rate hike. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell -23K in July, compared with expectations for an 85K increase, but the headline shock was only part of the story. May payroll growth was revised down from 129K to 63K and June from 57K to just 20K, wiping 103K from previously reported employment gains. Average hourly earnings also slowed from 0.3% to 0.1% month-over-month, adding to evidence that the labor market is losing momentum. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped from 4.2% to 4.1%, but the accompanying decline in participation from 61.5% to 61.4% made that improvement less reassuring.
July NFP Breakdown Headline NFP: -23K, against expectations for +85K May payrolls: revised down from 129K to 63K June payrolls: revised down from 57K to 20K (103K wiped from prior reports combined) Average hourly earnings: slowed from 0.3% to 0.1% m/m Unemployment rate: dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, though participation fell from 61.5% to 61.4% Why the Hawkish Case Just Got Harder Markets responded by quickly cutting the probability of a September Fed hike to around 42%. That represents a significant challenge to the hawkish case put forward by several Fed officials this week. Kashkari argued that the Fed should begin raising rates gradually, while Musalem said policymakers should be prepared to surprise markets rather than allow prevailing pricing to dictate policy. But their argument partly rests on the economy and labor market being resilient enough to absorb additional tightening. Negative payroll growth, substantial downward revisions and softer wages raise that hurdle considerably. Inflation remains too high for the Fed to declare victory, particularly with energy risks unresolved, but the latest employment report strengthens the majority case for waiting rather than tightening pre-emptively.
Dollar Reaction Was Broad, and USD/JPY Is the Story to Watch The Dollar reaction was broad. EUR/USD and AUD/USD broke to fresh highs for the week, while USD/JPY reversed much of its rebound and headed back toward 155. That move is particularly notable after last week’s rare US-Japan intervention. As discussed ahead of payrolls, intervention had created an asymmetric setup: traders chasing USD/JPY toward 160 after strong data would have to contend with renewed intervention risk, while a data-driven fall toward 155 would face no equivalent official deterrent. July NFP delivered precisely that downside scenario.
The Canadian Dollar performed even better after Canada simultaneously reported a 75.1K employment surge against expectations for 17.8K, while unemployment fell from 6.5% to 6.4%. USD/CAD therefore faced pressure from both sides, weak US employment and unexpectedly strong Canadian hiring.
Gold and Silver Break Higher as Fed Hike Risk Fades The reaction in precious metals was immediate. Gold decisively cleared 4,300, a level that had capped its rebound earlier this week, and accelerated above 4,350. Silver simultaneously surged toward $65. Both moves reinforce the case that recent precious-metals rallies are developing into something more substantial than corrective rebounds. Lower Fed hike expectations reduce pressure from real yields and the Dollar, while geopolitical uncertainty provides another layer of support.
Gold’s break is particularly significant because 4,300 had represented the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 4889.24 to 3942.23, near 4303.98. Earlier attempts to clear that area had stalled as Treasury yields and Brent awaited confirmation of progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. NFP has now supplied a separate catalyst. If Gold can sustain the breakout, attention should increasingly shift toward medium-term trend line resistance around 4,500.
Key Technical Levels Gold: cleared 4,300 (the 38.2% retracement of the 4889.24-3942.23 decline, near 4303.98) and accelerated above 4,350 Silver: surging toward $65 Next resistance: medium-term trend line around 4,500 Equities Show Restraint: Good for Rates, Not Automatically Good for Risk Equities delivered a more restrained response. Dow futures rose around 170 points, leaving the index within reach of another challenge to the record set earlier this week, but the reaction was nowhere near as forceful as the moves in Dollar or precious metals. That restraint is understandable. Weaker employment reduces the probability of additional Fed tightening, which supports valuations, but outright payroll contraction accompanied by substantial downward revisions also raises questions about underlying growth. Markets may therefore be approaching the point where bad economic news is still good for rates, but no longer automatically good for risk assets.
Hormuz Talks Progress, but the Details Complicate the Optimism That caution is reinforced by increasingly complicated developments in the Middle East. Iran and Oman continue working toward an arrangement defining shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, but despite expectations earlier this week that an agreement could arrive quickly, no final deal has yet been announced. The latest reports suggest inbound traffic could travel through Iranian waters while outbound vessels use Omani waters. Yet the reported Iranian draft terms raise questions over how closely any arrangement would resemble a genuine normalization of shipping.
Under the apparent draft proposal, US and Israeli vessels would be barred from using the Strait, while countries deemed to have harmed Iran could face restrictions until compensation is paid. Such conditions would make the proposed arrangement substantially different from an unconditional reopening. It also remains unclear how the temporary framework would evolve into a durable settlement. Markets have spent much of the week pricing falling geopolitical risk through lower oil and stronger equities, but the details now matter more than general expectations of a deal.
Diplomatic Rhetoric Turns More Hostile Diplomatic rhetoric is simultaneously becoming more hostile. Iran’s chief negotiator accused US President Donald Trump of engaging in “theater diplomacy,” highlighting conflicting accounts from Washington and Tehran over bilateral contacts. More importantly, progress over Hormuz is occurring alongside signs that regional military risks may be increasing rather than disappearing.
Saudi Warnings Add a New Escalation Risk Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed a joint defense agreement in Mecca on Friday as Riyadh warned of possible coordinated attacks from Iran-aligned groups. A senior Saudi official said intelligence from Saudi Arabia, the US and other regional countries pointed to potential attacks from Iraqi militias to the north and Houthis in Yemen to the south, potentially targeting civilian and economic infrastructure including energy facilities, ports and airports.
Particularly important was the Saudi official’s suggestion that possible attacks could reflect “a power struggle within Iran itself” and might be intended to derail negotiations that had otherwise been “heading in the right direction.” If that assessment proves accurate, it complicates the assumption that diplomatic progress automatically translates into lower geopolitical risk. Negotiations over Hormuz could advance at the government level while other actors simultaneously attempt to undermine them through military escalation.
Two Middle East Stories on Separate Tracks That creates two Middle East stories moving on separate tracks. One is diplomatic: Iran and Oman are trying to establish a framework that could restore more normal shipping through the Strait. The other is military: Gulf states are preparing for the possibility that regional attacks could intensify even while those negotiations continue. Brent’s recent inability to extend decisively below $78 and subsequent rebound above $83 increasingly looks consistent with that uncertainty.
US-China Competition Intensifies on Another Front Geopolitics is also moving beyond the Middle East. The Trump administration imposed a new 15% duty on polysilicon products on Thursday and introduced minimum prices for some related imports, explicitly framing the measure as an effort to protect US solar and semiconductor supply chains from Chinese competition. Polysilicon sits at the intersection of several strategic priorities, solar power, semiconductors, AI infrastructure and energy security, making the move another example of economic policy becoming inseparable from great-power competition.
The timing is notable given China’s strong July trade figures. Chinese exports rose 23.9% year-over-year, beating expectations, while chip exports surged 117% as global AI infrastructure demand continued to power high-tech manufacturing. Washington’s latest action therefore comes precisely as advanced technology becomes an increasingly important source of Chinese export growth. That suggests trade tensions are shifting further toward sectors viewed as strategically important rather than simply those generating large bilateral deficits.
What This Means Heading Into the Weekend For markets, the immediate driver remains the US employment shock. The Dollar has broken lower, Gold has cleared $4,300, Silver is approaching $65 and September Fed hike expectations have retreated sharply. But heading into the weekend, weaker payrolls cannot be treated as a straightforward invitation to extend risk-on positions. The Hormuz agreement remains unfinished, regional military threats are increasing, and US-China strategic competition is intensifying. NFP has broken this week’s market stalemate; whether those moves survive next week may depend increasingly on what happens outside the economic calendar.
Related Coverage Jobs & Trade Data Deep Dives Read the full NFP breakdown showing how deep the downward revisions cut into prior job gains: US Non-Farm Payrolls Contract -23k. Revisions Expose Deeper Labor Market Weakness. See the full Canada jobs report, including why wage growth cooling to 2.8% still reduces pressure for more BoC support: Canada Jobs Surge 75K as Unemployment Falls to Two-Year Low. Read why China’s export beat still raises sustainability questions once tariff front-loading fades: China Exports Rise 23.9% YoY as High-Tech Demand Defies Tariffs. Frequently Asked Questions Q: Why did equities react more cautiously than the Dollar and Gold to the NFP miss? A: Weaker employment reduces the probability of additional Fed tightening, which normally supports valuations. But outright payroll contraction, combined with substantial downward revisions to May and June, also raises questions about underlying growth. Markets may be approaching the point where bad economic news is still good for rates but no longer automatically good for risk assets, which is why Dow futures rose a modest 170 points while the Dollar and precious metals moved far more forcefully.
Q: Why does USD/JPY’s move back toward 155 matter after last week’s intervention? A: Last week’s coordinated US-Japan intervention created an asymmetric setup: traders pushing USD/JPY back toward 160 on strong data would face renewed intervention risk, while a data-driven fall toward 155 would face no equivalent official deterrent. July’s NFP delivered exactly that downside scenario, reversing much of USD/JPY’s prior rebound with no offsetting pushback expected from Japanese authorities.
Q: Does progress on Hormuz shipping talks mean geopolitical risk is actually falling? A: Not necessarily. Reported draft terms would bar US and Israeli vessels from the Strait and threaten restrictions on countries deemed to have harmed Iran until compensation is paid, conditions that make any arrangement substantially different from an unconditional reopening. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has warned of possible coordinated attacks from Iran-aligned groups, which a Saudi official suggested could reflect a power struggle within Iran aimed at derailing the negotiations. That means diplomatic progress and military escalation risk could be running on separate tracks simultaneously.
Key Takeaways NFP delivered a genuine shock: Headline payrolls fell -23K against expectations for +85K, while May and June were revised down by a combined 103K and wage growth slowed to 0.1% m/m. September Fed hike odds were cut to around 42%: The report significantly raises the hurdle for the hawkish case made by Kashkari and Musalem this week, since it rested on the economy being resilient enough to absorb more tightening. Dollar, Gold and Silver moved far more forcefully than equities: Gold cleared 4,300 and accelerated above 4,350, and Silver pushed toward $65, but Dow futures rose a more modest 170 points, since weak payrolls raise growth questions even as they support the case for a Fed pause. USD/JPY’s reversal toward 155 fits last week’s intervention asymmetry: A data-driven move lower carries no equivalent official deterrent to the one traders would face pushing the pair back toward 160. Hormuz progress comes with complicating conditions: Reported draft terms barring US and Israeli vessels and threatening restrictions on other countries look far more conditional than a genuine reopening, while Saudi Arabia’s new defense pact and attack warnings suggest military risk could be rising even as talks continue. US-China tensions are extending into strategic technology supply chains: The new US polysilicon tariff lands just as China’s chip exports surged 117% year-over-year, pointing to trade friction shifting toward strategically important sectors. What to Watch Next Whether this week’s moves hold into next week may depend less on the economic calendar than on developments outside it: whether the Hormuz framework firms into something closer to an unconditional reopening, whether Saudi Arabia’s escalation warnings materialize, and whether US-China tensions extend further into strategic technology sectors.
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Technically, Gold is trading in its tightest structure since August 2025 – the period that preceded a 60% advance over the following five months. Buyers have regained control, but $4,400 is decisive.
“A confirmed break above $4,400 could force underexposed traders to chase the market,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “Once institutional momentum accelerates, attractive entry prices can disappear very quickly.”
China’s Buying Is Becoming Impossible to Ignore China’s appetite for Gold has reached extraordinary proportions. In June alone, the country imported volumes comparable with the combined monthly production of the world’s ten largest Gold-producing nations. Annualized, that pace would equal roughly 64% of global mine supply.
This resembles strategic accumulation, not routine buying.
Beijing followed a similar pattern in Crude Oil after tensions escalated in Iran, using uncertainty to strengthen national reserves. Gold may now be serving the same purpose: protection against currency risk and financial fragmentation.
“The market should stop asking whether China is stockpiling,” Hansen says. “The real question is what Beijing sees coming that other traders have not yet priced in.”
When capital turns this aggressively, it rarely waits for perfect confirmation.
The Dollar’s 15-Year Support Is Cracking The U.S Dollar Index appears to be breaking below a trendline that shaped its direction for more than 15 years. Co-ordinated U.S-Japan intervention to support the yen suggests policymakers may tolerate a weaker dollar.
That could become a major accelerant for Precious Metals.
“A sustained dollar decline would not be a short-lived event,” Hansen says. “Currency trends of this magnitude can fuel Gold and Silver bull markets for years.”
Central Banks Are Quietly Building Gold’s Next Launchpad While many traders remain distracted by short-term volatility, central banks are sending a very different signal.
They purchased 289 tonnes of Gold in the second quarter, taking first-half acquisitions to 345 tonnes, while repeated buying around $4,000 suggests that level could be evolving into Gold’s next structural floor. History shows that powerful bull markets are often built on sustained accumulation before the wider market recognises what is unfolding.
“Major bull markets build higher floors, punish hesitation and reward traders positioned before the breakout becomes obvious,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club.
That, Hansen argues, is precisely the opportunity developing now.
Gold’s Next Move Could Be Explosive Over the past 15 years, The Gold & Silver Club has built a reputation as one of the industry’s most accurate forecasters of major Gold price trends, a record well documented across leading financial publications and institutional research reports. The firm’s proprietary models have consistently pinpointed major turning points in both Gold and Silver – earning GSC recognition as a trusted authority among institutional investors and private wealth clients alike.
“The biggest fortunes in bull markets are rarely made by those waiting for the crowd,” Hansen says. “They are made by traders who recognize the shift early and are already positioned when the real acceleration begins.”
A decisive breakout above $4,400 could mark the beginning of Gold’s next major leg higher, potentially forcing momentum traders, institutional investors and billions of dollars of sidelined capital to chase the move.
That is where the urgency lies. If Gold breaks out, the window to accumulate Gold and Silver at today’s prices could close very quickly. By the time the headlines declare the next bull run has arrived, smart money may already be positioned and everyone else could be competing for exposure at substantially higher prices.
August 2026 could ultimately be remembered not as the month traders should have been watching Gold, but as the moment they should have been buying it.
The catalysts are aligning. Smart money is moving. The technical trigger is within striking distance. That’s welcoming news for the bulls, but painful for anyone sitting on the side lines, who must now decide how much FOMO they can handle.
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
Gold has stormed back into the spotlight and its next move could leave late buyers chasing. On August 5, the yellow metal surged almost 7% – roughly $174 – to close near $4,308 an ounce, posting one of its biggest daily advances in recent history.
A weaker U.S dollar, falling Treasury yields, changing Federal Reserve expectations and renewed safe-haven demand all struck at once. The biggest Commodity rallies often begin when several forces converge before markets recognize the opportunity.
Technically, Gold is trading in its tightest structure since August 2025 – the period that preceded a 60% advance over the following five months. Buyers have regained control, but $4,400 is decisive.
“A confirmed break above $4,400 could force underexposed traders to chase the market,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “Once institutional momentum accelerates, attractive entry prices can disappear very quickly.”
China’s appetite for Gold has reached extraordinary proportions. In June alone, the country imported volumes comparable with the combined monthly production of the world’s ten largest Gold-producing nations. Annualized, that pace would equal roughly 64% of global mine supply.
This resembles strategic accumulation, not routine buying.
Beijing followed a similar pattern in Crude Oil after tensions escalated in Iran, using uncertainty to strengthen national reserves. Gold may now be serving the same purpose: protection against currency risk and financial fragmentation.
“The market should stop asking whether China is stockpiling,” Hansen says. “The real question is what Beijing sees coming that other traders have not yet priced in.”
China’s volatile Equity market is adding another demand engine. Policy shocks, trade restrictions and turbulence across technology shares have pushed households and institutions towards assets seen as more dependable.
Gold-backed ETFs have recorded 14 consecutive days of inflows, attracting approximately $1.2 billion. That followed outflows in 38 of the previous 44 sessions, signalling that sentiment has changed with exceptional speed.
When capital turns this aggressively, it rarely waits for perfect confirmation.
The U.S Dollar Index appears to be breaking below a trendline that shaped its direction for more than 15 years. Co-ordinated U.S-Japan intervention to support the yen suggests policymakers may tolerate a weaker dollar.
That could become a major accelerant for Precious Metals.
“A sustained dollar decline would not be a short-lived event,” Hansen says. “Currency trends of this magnitude can fuel Gold and Silver bull markets for years.”
While many traders remain distracted by short-term volatility, central banks are sending a very different signal.
They purchased 289 tonnes of Gold in the second quarter, taking first-half acquisitions to 345 tonnes, while repeated buying around $4,000 suggests that level could be evolving into Gold’s next structural floor. History shows that powerful bull markets are often built on sustained accumulation before the wider market recognises what is unfolding.
“Major bull markets build higher floors, punish hesitation and reward traders positioned before the breakout becomes obvious,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club.
That, Hansen argues, is precisely the opportunity developing now.
Over the past 15 years, The Gold & Silver Club has built a reputation as one of the industry’s most accurate forecasters of major Gold price trends, a record well documented across leading financial publications and institutional research reports. The firm’s proprietary models have consistently pinpointed major turning points in both Gold and Silver – earning GSC recognition as a trusted authority among institutional investors and private wealth clients alike.
“The biggest fortunes in bull markets are rarely made by those waiting for the crowd,” Hansen says. “They are made by traders who recognize the shift early and are already positioned when the real acceleration begins.”
A decisive breakout above $4,400 could mark the beginning of Gold’s next major leg higher, potentially forcing momentum traders, institutional investors and billions of dollars of sidelined capital to chase the move.
That is where the urgency lies. If Gold breaks out, the window to accumulate Gold and Silver at today’s prices could close very quickly. By the time the headlines declare the next bull run has arrived, smart money may already be positioned and everyone else could be competing for exposure at substantially higher prices.
August 2026 could ultimately be remembered not as the month traders should have been watching Gold, but as the moment they should have been buying it.
The catalysts are aligning. Smart money is moving. The technical trigger is within striking distance. That’s welcoming news for the bulls, but painful for anyone sitting on the side lines, who must now decide how much FOMO they can handle.
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that the US Dollar's (USD) current support from perceived hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy is likely to fade as markets reassess United States (US) rate expectations over coming quarters. While Euro (EUR) upside is seen as limited due to energy-related growth and rate headwinds, EUR/USD is still forecast to grind higher towards 1.19 by end-2027 as US rate expectations ease.
Dollar strength seen moderating"The US dollar is currently benefiting from a Federal Reserve that markets continue to perceive as relatively hawkish. However, this narrative has shown the first signs of cracking since the July FOMC meeting. Despite this, markets still price in further US rate hikes."
"We believe these expectations are overly optimistic and expect a reassessment of the rate outlook over the coming quarters, which should weigh on the dollar. While ECB rate expectations also appear somewhat stretched, the euro is likely to benefit more than the US currency from a resolution of the US-Iran conflict."
"If, as we expect, tensions between the US and Iran continue to ease towards year-end, inflationary pressures should moderate considerably next year. In that environment, the Fed could once again shift its focus towards supporting growth and eventually even resume its rate-cutting cycle."
"We therefore expect US rate expectations to be revised materially lower over the coming quarters, a development that should ultimately weigh on the dollar. However, the depreciation is unlikely to be quite as pronounced as we had previously assumed as we have to acknowledge that the risk that the Fed will hike rates in the coming months after all has increased. We now see EUR/USD at 1.19 (previously 1.21) at the end of next year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its strong rally on Friday, trading around $64.10 at the time of writing, up 4.16% on the day. The white metal reaches a fresh six-week high and is on track for its best weekly performance since February, supported by fading expectations of further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and persistent demand for safe-haven assets.
Markets, however, remain cautious ahead of the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later in the day. Economists expect the US economy to have added 80K jobs in July after 57K in June, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.2% and annual Average Hourly Earnings growth is expected to hold at 3.5%. The data could reshape expectations for the Fed's monetary policy path.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors have scaled back expectations for additional monetary tightening in recent days, a factor that continues to support precious metals, which typically perform well when interest rate expectations ease.
Meanwhile, geopolitical developments continue to support demand for safe-haven assets. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated following reports of potential escalation involving Iran, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, as well as renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Against this backdrop, the US employment report is expected to be the main short-term catalyst for Silver. A stronger-than-expected report could revive expectations of a more hawkish Fed and limit the metal's upside, while weaker data could weaken those expectations, providing additional support for XAG/USD.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, although price action has been confined to a narrow range over the past ten trading days, suggesting that the mid-July rebound from below 0.8500 is losing steam beneath a dense cluster of moving averages. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP trades around 0.8575.
Strategists at Rabobank argue that the recent shift in market expectations toward “steady policy from the BoE this year,” coupled with the prospect of heightened “nervousness ahead of the October budget,” points to “scope for downside pressure on the pound as the summer draws to a close.” In this context, the bank says it “favour[s] buying EUR/GBP on dips to the 0.8550 area,” adding that “a break above the recent high in the 0.8588 region could increase upside potential.”
From a technical perspective, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8584 caps the immediate upside. A sustained break above this level would expose the 100-day SMA at 0.8630, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.8675.
Momentum indicators offer mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 54, reflecting a modest bullish bias, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive. However, the fading green histogram suggests that the recent recovery lacks enough momentum to decisively clear the moving averages for now.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the horizontal level of 0.8550, followed by the psychological mark of 0.8500. A decisive break below the latter would expose the year-to-date low near 0.8455.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report EUR/USD has retreated to 1.1524 after failing several times near 1.1560. Intraday, they see scope for further pullback but expect strong support at 1.1495 to hold. Over the next 1–3 weeks, a close above 1.1565 would open the way toward 1.1600, while a break below 1.1495 would signal a shift into range trading.
Support at 1.1495, resistance at 1.1565"24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR edged higher as we expected two days ago, we highlighted the following yesterday: “The mild upward pressure remains intact. Today, there is a chance for EUR to break above 1.1565, but it remains to be seen whether it can maintain a foothold above this level. Based on the prevailing momentum, the major resistance at 1.1600 is highly unlikely to come into view.” Our assessments turned out to be incorrect. From a high of 1.1559, EUR pulled back to 1.1514 before settling at 1.1524 (-0.23%). While there is scope for EUR to pull back further today, any decline is unlikely to break the strong support at 1.1495 (there is another support level at 1.1510). Resistance is at 1.1535, followed by 1.1550."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), when we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” Over the past few days, EUR tested 1.1560 thrice but failed to break above. Upward momentum is starting to slow, and a break below 1.1495 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) would mean that EUR has likely entered a range-trading phase."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its recovery on Friday as technical buying accelerates, even as market sentiment remains cautious due to developments in the Middle East and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate outlook. Traders now await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due at 12:30 GMT.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,322, climbing to a fresh seven-week high.
Economists expect the US economy to add 80K jobs in July, following a 57K increase in June, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.2%.
The precious metal is heading for its strongest weekly rise since January, gaining more than 6% so far after breaking above the month-old $4,000-$4,200 range on Wednesday. The advance was initially fuelled by optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon as Iran and Oman reportedly moved closer to an agreement on a proposed shipping route through the waterway.
The development pushed Oil prices sharply lower earlier in the week, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation and weighing on the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields as traders scaled back bets on Fed interest rate hikes. Gold tends to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment, as it offers no yield.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently see around a 55% probability of a rate hike at the September meeting, down from roughly 67% a week ago. The upcoming employment data could shift those expectations and determine whether Gold extends its advance or begins to lose momentum.
Nevertheless, energy-related inflation risks have diminished rather than disappeared, as Oil prices still carry a substantial geopolitical risk premium. Fars News reported on Friday that Iran had struck what it described as “hostile targets” in the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, the proposed Iran-Oman arrangement would not result in a complete reopening of the Strait. Tehran could collect transit fees under the framework and is also reviewing a bill that would bar US, Israeli and other hostile vessels from using the waterway.
Technical analysis: Daily chart
XAU/USD bounced back above the Bollinger Bands’ 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,084 and is now holding over the upper band at $4,256, hinting at firm underlying demand after the recent range-bound trade.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64 approaches overbought territory on the daily chart, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram stays firmly positive, reinforcing bullish momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 100-day SMA at $4,390, and a sustained break above this barrier would open the way for a more decisive bullish continuation.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Bollinger upper band near $4,256, followed by the mid-line at $4,084, with a more solid floor at the horizontal level of $4,000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Market news from the European morning session - 7 August 2026
Headlines:
All eyes on the US jobs report nowWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?Gold stays supported amid Middle East de-escalation, but the US CPI could erase the gainsTrump says a rate hike isn't completely up to Warsh, it's up to the BoardHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?China gold buying spree continues in July as reserves climb for a 21st consecutive monthMarket update:
Gold up 1.8% to $4,316WTI crude oil down 0.4% to $76.93CHF leads, CAD lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.66%Bitcoin up 0.8% to $64,900It was a quieter session as market players took a bit of a breather ahead of the US jobs report for July that is to come later.
US-Iran tensions continue to be a mainstay but in the absence of further developments, traders are not really doing all too much today.
Gold prices continue to run up though, jumping above $4,300 in keeping with the technical breakout from Wednesday. The 100-day moving average at $4,390 will be a key focus point next.
Besides that, there wasn't too much else happening. US futures remain more pensive with tech shares hoping to at least recover some poise before the weekend. S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% with Nasdaq futures up 0.4%.
Meanwhile, the dollar wasn't up to much as major currencies trade in a relatively narrow range ahead of the main event later today. EUR/USD is flat at 1.1528 with USD/JPY down just 0.1% to 158.30 on the day.
In other markets, oil is down slightly in erasing earlier gains with WTI crude lower by 0.4% to $76.93. And looking to bonds, 10-year yields in the US are down just 1 bps to 4.66% for the moment. So, there's not too much in it all in all.
It's now down to the US jobs report to perhaps give traders something to work with before the weekend break.
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Stronger US Treasury yields and pre-NFP position adjustments boosted dollar demand, outweighing reduced safe-haven interest following Middle East diplomatic progress With no Bank of England meeting until September, sterling is trading reactively to US data, especially the closely watched July nonfarm payrolls report Market participants can capitalize on current range-bound conditions between key technical levels or await breakout opportunities following critical economic data The British pound (GBP) ended July strongly against the U.S. dollar, surpassing the 1.3500 mark after a three-day rally. However, August has presented a more volatile trading period for GBP/USD. In the first five trading days of August, the pair only managed two positive closes, returning to the 1.3440 level.
Traders were caught off guard by the dollar’s sudden dip. Global demand for safe havens relaxed, as talk of war in the Middle East quieted down thanks to diplomatic discussions about the Strait of Hormuz. So, why is the dollar still so strong despite this?
The Dollar’s Comeback Isn’t About Fear Anymore The dollar’s surprising strength right now is what’s really noteworthy, especially since a classic safe-haven driver, the risk of Middle East war, is actually fading. Iran and Oman have made good headway on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, reports this week even point to an agreed-upon shipping route.
This proposed deal would have ships moving through routes controlled by both Iran and Oman, which could undo months of disruption in a waterway that handles about a fifth of the world’s oil.
Normally, such de-escalation would reduce demand for the dollar as investors move away from safe-haven assets. However, the dollar’s resilience suggests other factors are at play. The primary reason for sterling’s weakness is a widening yield differential.
U.S. Treasury yields have remained stable due to consistent hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve, while U.K. gilt yields have declined amid concerns about sluggish domestic economic growth.
Reports indicate Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is still considering a September rate hike if new inflation data stays stubborn. That’s pushed Treasury yields higher and backed the dollar. Markets are now paying more attention to the chance of tighter policy rather than just an extended pause.
Meanwhile, institutional investors reduced their short-dollar positions in anticipation of key U.S. economic data releases, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM services figures.
On the UK side, the pound has its own headwinds. The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 3.75% on July 30 and does not have another meeting scheduled until September 17. This leaves sterling largely influenced by U.S. economic data rather than having its own domestic drivers this month.
What to Expect In the Coming Weeks and Months for GBPUSD In the short term, GBPUSD will probably keep reacting to U.S. data and what the Fed says. The pair has been moving between 1.32 and 1.36. To break out of this range, either up or down, we’ll need clearer signals from American economic indicators.
If payrolls and upcoming inflation numbers are strong, the dollar might continue its slight comeback and push the pound towards the lower end of that 1.32–1.36 range. On the other hand, if the jobs report is significantly weaker, it would quickly bring back the idea that the Fed might be more patient, and the pound could test the 1.35 level again.
For now, it seems like the market is stuck in a range and reacting to specific events, rather than moving in a clear trend.
Why is the US dollar getting stronger against the sterling pound despite easing Middle East tensions?
Hawkish Fed signals under Chair Kevin Warsh, including rising odds of a September rate hike, are outweighing reduced safe-haven demand from cooling Iran-related risks.
How are interest rate differentials currently affecting the performance of the British pound against the U.S. dollar?
U.K. gilt yields softened faster than U.S. Treasury yields, reducing sterling’s relative yield advantage and encouraging capital flows back into dollars.
How does the pair’s near-term outlook look?
It remains likely to keep trading range-bound between roughly 1.32 and 1.36, with US labour and inflation data likely to dictate the next directional move.
Gold (XAU/USD) resumes its bullish trend on Friday, after a brief consolidation on Thursday, to reach fresh three-week highs above $4,300, with bulls aiming for mid-June highs in the $4,380 area. The precious metal is on track for its strongest weekly performance since January, with a nearly 7% gain, although further appreciation is likely to depend on the outcome of July’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due later in the day.
The market consensus forecasts a net increase of 80K payrolls, from 57K in June, although analysts from some of the world’s major commercial banks are keeping a cautious view.
Deutsche Bank experts are anticipating a more modest improvement in today’s labour market report, with a “slight uptick in headline (+65k forecast vs. +57k previously). They note that such an outcome “would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports,” underscoring a gradual cooling in hiring momentum rather than a sharp deterioration.
Technical Analysis: Gold confirms a trend shift
XAU/USD trades at $4,315.19, keeping a constructive near‑term bias after breaking the downward trendline resistance from April highs earlier this week. Relative Strength Index (RSI) studies highlight overstretched levels on intraday charts, although the daily chart shows room for further appreciation, at 67. The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) keeps trending higher, reinforcing the bullish view.
Above $4,300, the next hurdle lies at the June 15 and 17 highs in the mentioned $4,380 area. Further up, the late-May lows just ahead of $4,600 will come into focus. Supports are at Thursday's low of $4,223, ahead of the broken trendline, now around $4,050, and the July 31 and August 3 lows, around the $4,000 level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
According to COT data released on 31 July, large specs (short for speculative traders) are heavily long 2-year and 5-year Treasury futures.
Large specs are professional market participants such as hedge funds, commodity trading advisers and other large money managers. Their positions are tracked because they can offer a useful view of how bigger traders are leaning.
By going long Treasury futures, these big players are positioning for note prices to rise. Since note prices and yields move in opposite directions, which tells me that they are leaning towards lower 2-year and 5-year yields.
These are historically great conditions for Gold and Silver.
Earlier this year, one of the biggest pressures on the metals was the fear that sticky inflation would force the Fed to stay hawkish. Short-term yields pushed higher, and gold began losing momentum.
But now, the script may be flipping.
Take a look at the chart below. It compares gold with the 2-year minus 30-year Treasury yield spread.
The blue line shows how the 2-year yield is moving against the 30-year yield.
When the line trends higher, the 2-year yield is rising faster, or falling more slowly, than the 30-year yield. That usually points to stronger pressure from near-term Fed policy.
Notice how gold tends to struggle during those periods.
When the line trends lower, the 2-year yield is weakening relative to the 30-year yield. If the 2-year is falling faster, it suggests that immediate rate pressure is starting to cool.
Gold has generally done much better when that happens.
One technical tell I like on this chart is the break of the 20 EMA band, created using Bollinger Bands set at one standard deviation.
Back in November 2025, the spread broke below the band and started trending lower. Gold then moved into a much stronger uptrend.
Earlier this year, the spread broke back above the band as pressure from short-term yields returned. Gold subsequently began falling.
Now, we have just seen another break below the 20 EMA band.
It looks similar to the shift we saw in late 2025, when the 2-year yield began losing ground against the long end and gold started pushing higher.
It still needs follow-through, of course. But for the first time in a while, the rates backdrop is starting to look less hostile for metals.
Gold and Silver are stronger, but resistance is closeGold has now returned to the 4,250 to 4,380 zone. This was previously an area where price found support, before rejecting from the same region again in late June. So we already know this zone has enough weight to turn the market.
Daily Stoch RSI is also flashing overbought after gold’s sharp rise. That does leave the door open for a short-term retracement.
There is one important difference this time, though. Gold is now trading above the 20 EMA band (set via Bollingers), which had been suppressing price since March. The move also came after a breakout from the recent triangle pattern.
So if gold pulls back towards the 20 EMA band and the triangle’s former upper trendline near 4,120, I would personally watch for a bullish reaction. If that area fails, however, the 4,000 region could come back into view.
For silver, the technical picture is even simpler. Price is now testing a clear descending trendline that has been in place since February.
Pair that with an overbought daily Stoch RSI, and a small retracement would not be surprising. Silver has also broken above its 20 EMA band and that makes 59.64 the main area I would watch on a pullback.
If buyers step back in there, it would support the breakout. If price falls back below the band, silver may still need more time before breaking out of the wider downtrend.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose raises the near-term EUR/PLN forecast from 4.20 to 4.30, citing recent global risk-off moves and uncertainty surrounding the oil price shock. The bank leaves its end-2026 forecast unchanged at 4.25 and its end-2027 forecast unchanged at 4.40, while expecting EUR/PLN to rise steadily through 2027.
Higher near-term euro-zloty levels"In the near term, the zloty faces additional downside pressure from elevated global risk aversion toward emerging markets and the uncertainty surrounding the oil price shock."
"We are revising up our near-term EUR/PLN forecast from 4.20 to 4.30 in order to re-calibrate with recent risk-off moves in world markets which have impacted many EM currencies, in particular high-beta ones."
"We continue to assume that the geopolitical situation will de-escalate, which will allow the euro and eastern European currencies to stabilise, and PLN can recover from current risk-driven weakness."
"This recovery could be helped by the timing of monetary policy: NBP may remain on hold while oil prices and risk premia begin to fall, which will create a ‘sweet spot’ before rate cut expectations return. In the medium-term, the zloty faces more headwinds because of the political risks and stay on a mild depreciating path."
"We leave our end-2026 forecast unchanged at 4.25 and forecast EUR/PLN to rise steadily through 2027."
"We leave our end-2027 EUR/PLN forecast unchanged at 4.40."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The US Dollar (USD) pares gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, with the USD/CHF pair drifting towards the 0.8100 level, after rejection at 0.8136 highs on Thursday. The Greenback is still on track for a 0.3% rally this week, but investors’ cautiousness ahead of the release of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is keeping USD bulls in check on Friday.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect only a modest improvement in July's payrolls, looking for “a slight uptick in headline (+65k forecast vs. +57k previously) and private (+65k vs. +49k) payrolls.” They note that such an outcome “would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports,” underscoring a gradual cooling in hiring momentum.
In Switzerland, the SECO Consumer Climate Index, released earlier in the day, has shown a slight improvement to -35 in Q3, from -40 in the previous quarter, although it remains close to historic lows. The impact on the Swissie has been minimal.
Technical Analysis: The Near-term bias remains positive
USD/CHF trades at 0.8105, after retreating from 0.813, yet with price action showing a constructive pattern from July 30 lows. Momentum is positive, although showing fading bullish traction, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around a neutral 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line marginally above its signal and zero.
US Dollar bears are testing support at a previous resistance zone above 0.8100. Further down, the trendline resistance from the mentioned July 30 low, now around 0.8075, and the bottom of August's trading range, at the 0.8055-0.8060 area, are likely to test downside momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at Thursday's high of 0.8124 and the July 30 high at 0.8175 ahead of the 13-month high, at 0.8205 hit in late July.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $64.34 per troy ounce, up 4.58% from the $61.52 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 9.49% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.00 on Friday, down from 68.92 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
USD/JPY stood at 158.39 on Friday, with the Japanese yen giving back some of the gains made following the joint intervention by Tokyo and Washington. The renewed weakness has once again raised expectations of possible further action by the authorities.
The pullback has highlighted that currency interventions alone are insufficient to address the fundamental drivers of the yen’s weakness. Pressure on the currency is being driven by a wide interest rate differential, rising fiscal risks, and elevated energy and import costs.
An additional negative factor has been the strengthening of the dollar and the recovery in oil prices following renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic data have also been weak, with Japanese household spending falling 3.3% in June, against expectations of 1.0% growth – pointing to subdued consumer demand.
Investors are now pricing in the possibility of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. While the regulator left policy settings unchanged last week, markets continue to price in further tightening.
Technical analysis
On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 157.90 level, currently extending up to 158.56. A move lower towards 157.90 is expected today, followed by a move higher to 159.50. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing upwards.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed an upward move to 158.56. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. A move lower towards at least 157.90 is expected, followed by a move higher to 159.50. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionUSD/JPY has regained some ground as the yen’s post-intervention gains fade, highlighting the limitations of currency intervention in addressing the fundamental drivers of yen weakness. Wide interest rate differentials, fiscal risks, high energy costs, and weak domestic spending continue to weigh on the currency. Renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices higher, while disappointing household spending data have added to concerns over sluggish consumer demand. Markets are now pricing in a potential Bank of Japan rate hike in September. Technically, USD/JPY may see a short-term pullback towards 157.90 before resuming its upward trajectory towards 159.50, with intervention risks remaining a key factor.
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The NZD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses through the first half of the European session on Friday as traders opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the release of the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the currency pair.
In the meantime, persistent geopolitical uncertainties and bets for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and cap the NZD/USD pair. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish tilt continues to underpin the Kiwi and helps the NZD/USD pair to hold above the 0.5860 level, or the lower end of its weekly range.
The said area coincides with a horizontal resistance breakpoint and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders amid a mixed technical setup. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is ticking slightly negative, which hints at a consolidative tone rather than a strongly trending market.
Nevertheless, the NZD/USD pair maintains a mildly bullish near-term bias and keeps the broader recovery structure intact, above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. This, in turn, suggests that any further slide is more likely to attract buyers near the 0.5868 area, while the 200-period SMA at 0.5770 reinforces a deeper structural floor if sellers extend a pullback.
On the flip side, bulls might await sustained strength and acceptance above 0.5900 – marking the highest level since early June and the top boundary of the weekly range – before placing fresh bets. The NZD/USD pair might then extend its recent goodish recovery move from the year-to-date low, around the 0.5625 region, touched in June.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD 4-hour chart
New Zealand Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies this week. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.21%0.37%0.74%0.07%0.03%0.51%0.54%EUR-0.21%0.17%0.58%-0.13%-0.08%0.31%0.35%GBP-0.37%-0.17%0.04%-0.30%-0.25%0.13%0.18%JPY-0.74%-0.58%-0.04%-0.61%-0.57%-0.14%-0.11%CAD-0.07%0.13%0.30%0.61%0.04%0.48%0.48%AUD-0.03%0.08%0.25%0.57%-0.04%0.37%0.42%NZD-0.51%-0.31%-0.13%0.14%-0.48%-0.37%0.04%CHF-0.54%-0.35%-0.18%0.11%-0.48%-0.42%-0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
USD/JPY stood at 158.39 on Friday, with the Japanese yen giving back some of the gains made following the joint intervention by Tokyo and Washington. The renewed weakness has once again raised expectations of possible further action by the authorities.
The pullback has highlighted that currency interventions alone are insufficient to address the fundamental drivers of the yen’s weakness. Pressure on the currency is being driven by a wide interest rate differential, rising fiscal risks, and elevated energy and import costs.
An additional negative factor has been the strengthening of the dollar and the recovery in oil prices following renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic data have also been weak, with Japanese household spending falling 3.3% in June, against expectations of 1.0% growth – pointing to subdued consumer demand.
Investors are now pricing in the possibility of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. While the regulator left policy settings unchanged last week, markets continue to price in further tightening.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 157.90 level, currently extending up to 158.56. A move lower towards 157.90 is expected today, followed by a move higher to 159.50. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing upwards.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed an upward move to 158.56. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. A move lower towards at least 157.90 is expected, followed by a move higher to 159.50. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion USD/JPY has regained some ground as the yen’s post-intervention gains fade, highlighting the limitations of currency intervention in addressing the fundamental drivers of yen weakness. Wide interest rate differentials, fiscal risks, high energy costs, and weak domestic spending continue to weigh on the currency. Renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices higher, while disappointing household spending data have added to concerns over sluggish consumer demand. Markets are now pricing in a potential Bank of Japan rate hike in September. Technically, USD/JPY may see a short-term pullback towards 157.90 before resuming its upward trajectory towards 159.50, with intervention risks remaining a key factor.
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Persistent shifts in sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement continue to reinforce, rather than eliminate, geopolitical risks. As a result, both crude oil and the US Dollar Index (DXY) have regained ground, with the DXY holding above its 2026 uptrend support near 99.30 and WTI crude remaining firmly above the $70 mark.
The unresolved security framework surrounding the Strait of Hormuz—including future navigation and transit arrangements—remains one of the key obstacles preventing the conflict from transitioning into a durable ceasefire and the full resumption of shipping flows through the strait. Alongside the broader nuclear negotiations that remain central to any lasting resolution, these issues require a long-term political framework before markets can confidently price a sustained geopolitical de-escalation.
As discussed in my previous article, Crude Oil Outlook: What the 1973 Oil Embargo Tells Us About the 2026 Hormuz Crisis, the current environment may resemble historical episodes such as the 1973 oil embargo, when geopolitical uncertainty kept energy risk premiums elevated until durable security and political frameworks were established, supporting decades of stability in global energy markets. Similar conditions have yet to emerge in the 2026 Strait of Hormuz conflict.
The recent market reaction continues to reinforce this intermarket framework:
The Dow Jones was the first major index to rally to fresh record highs before broader equity markets followed, while simultaneously testing a major higher-timeframe resistance zone. Dow Jones Outlook The US Dollar Index (DXY) corrected only to its 2026 uptrend support near 99.30, maintaining its broader bullish structure. DXY Outlook WTI and Brent crude oil continue to hold above their respective geopolitical risk premium zones near $66 and $70, suggesting markets have yet to fully price a lasting de-escalation. Markets reward trends far more consistently than geopolitical headlines. Headlines may trigger volatility, but sustained trends require confirmation through price action. Current intermarket relationships continue to favor caution. Equity indices are testing major long-term resistance, Bitcoin remains unable to confirm the broader risk-on move, the US dollar continues to respect its 2026 bullish structure, and USD/JPY remains resilient despite persistent intervention risks. Together, these signals suggest that markets continue to price geopolitical uncertainty, elevated Treasury yields, and expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve as the dominant macro narrative.
Crude Oil Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
WTI crude oil's latest pullback found support near $72, corresponding with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of July's advance. Persistent US-Iran tensions helped stabilize prices above that level, reinforcing the broader bullish structure.
Price action continues to hold above the $70–72 support zone, maintaining the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices. A sustained move above $77—the multi-month support level from March 2026 that has since turned into resistance—would expose the next Fibonacci extension levels derived from July's advance:
$80.40 – 27.2% Fibonacci extension $83.30 – 38.2% Fibonacci extension $86.50 – 50% Fibonacci extension $89.60 – 61.8% Fibonacci extension, representing a major area where pullback risks may emerge as it aligns with the long-term trendline extending from the lower boundary of the March-June consolidation that preceded July's decline from $93 to $77. Such a move would likely coincide with persistent tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and continued disruptions to crude oil refining and supply chains. A sustained move into the $86.50–89.60 region would suggest markets are pricing another phase of geopolitical escalation, increasing broader market drawdown risks.
Bearish Scenario
Should WTI crude oil fall back below $72, attention would immediately shift to the $68–66.50 support zone.
This area continues to define the broader escalation versus de-escalation narrative for 2026, having repeatedly acted as both support and resistance since 2019. A weekly close below $66.50 would expose the 2026 lows near $55, signalling that markets are beginning to price a longer-term geopolitical de-escalation scenario. Such a development would likely improve global risk sentiment while easing inflationary pressures.
USD/JPY Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
The USD/JPY pullback from the 164.00 confluence zone—a resistance area aligning with both the midpoint of the April 2025–July 2026 channel and the broader 2022–2026 channel—found support near 155.00.
Current support aligns with:
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025–July 2026 advance. Oversold daily momentum, last seen in 2024. A breakdown below the 2025–2026 ascending channel. Should the current rebound stabilize above 159.50, bullish momentum could return, allowing the pair to retest 161.00, 161.80, and eventually 164.00.
These former support levels may now act as resistance during another test of price levels not seen since the 1980s. A sustained break above 164.00 would expose the upper boundary of the broader channel near 170, following a significant rebuilding of upside momentum.
Conversely, a close below 155.00 would expose the next key support levels at 152.00 and 149.00. This remains a critical region, aligning with the lower boundary of the 2022–2026 channel and defining the longer-term bullish versus bearish outlook for the US dollar—not only against the Japanese yen but across broader financial markets.
The broader outlook continues to favour a bullish bias unless a durable framework governing Middle East shipping routes is established, US Treasury yields begin to decline, and expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening continue to fade.
