Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 580.96 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 577.57 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,776.25 per tola from MYR 6,736.71 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
580.96
10 Grams
5,809.64
Tola
6,776.25
Troy Ounce
18,070.03
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,549.95 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,463.78 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 158,050.20 per tola from INR 157,038.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,549.95
10 Grams
135,504.30
Tola
158,050.20
Troy Ounce
421,422.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold started a fresh rally above the $4,250 region. It surpassed a major contracting triangle with resistance at $4,095 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil started a recovery wave above $81.50 and $82.00. Bitcoin failed to clear the $65,500 resistance and trimmed gains. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold found bids near $4,065 and $4,080 against the US Dollar. The price started a decent increase after there was a close above $4,120.
The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price settled above the $4,250 pivot level, the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours). A high was formed at $4,435, and the price remains elevated.
On the upside, immediate resistance could be $4,435. The next major resistance might be $4,450. A clear move above $4,450 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $4,500 or even $4,525. Any more gains might send the price toward the $4,550 level.
If there is a downside correction, the price could test the $4,350 support or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,995 swing low to the $4,435 high.
The first major support sits at $4,320. The next support could be $4,215, below which the price might slide to $4,150. The main support sits at $4,120. Any more losses might call for a test of $4,050 or even $4,020 in the coming days.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price is slowly moving higher and might rally if it closes above the $83.50 resistance.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
US NFIB Business Optimism Index for July 2026 – Forecast 97.8, versus 97.4 previous. US ADP Employment Change 4-week average – Forecast 12K, versus 15K previous.
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EUR/JPY depreciates after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 183.80 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 47.63 sits just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at ongoing bearish momentum without yet reaching oversold conditions.
The EUR/JPY cross is holding a mildly bearish near-term bias as it remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while it is positioned just above the nine-day EMA. This configuration suggests the cross is caught between short-term support and overhead trend resistance, with price action vulnerable to further downside while the longer EMA caps the topside.
The initial support lies at the nine-day EMA at 183.34. A successful break below the short-term moving average would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to fall toward the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3, followed by the nine-month low of 175.70.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could rise toward the primary resistance at the 50-day EMA at 184.57. Further advances above the medium-term moving average would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
Markets edge toward BoJ tightening as hike odds firm into year-endBNY’s Wee Khoon Chong notes that policy expectations have shifted meaningfully, with “markets now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end,” underscoring the growing conviction that the BoJ will move further away from its ultra-accommodative stance over the coming months.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.01%-0.02%-0.06%-0.07%-0.07%-0.06%-0.01%EUR-0.01%-0.02%-0.06%-0.06%-0.04%-0.06%-0.01%GBP0.02%0.02%-0.04%-0.04%-0.03%-0.04%0.01%JPY0.06%0.06%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.06%CAD0.07%0.06%0.04%-0.00%0.02%-0.00%0.05%AUD0.07%0.04%0.03%-0.01%-0.02%-0.01%0.04%NZD0.06%0.06%0.04%-0.00%0.00%0.01%0.06%CHF0.00%0.01%-0.01%-0.06%-0.05%-0.04%-0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The British Pound (GBP) holds onto two-day gains marginally at around 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair remains firm as the British Pound outperforms despite financial markets pricing out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in the near term.
Pound Sterling Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.08%-0.18%0.89%-0.14%0.08%0.12%0.29%EUR-0.08%-0.27%0.79%-0.29%-0.06%-0.06%0.11%GBP0.18%0.27%1.01%-0.03%0.21%0.23%0.36%JPY-0.89%-0.79%-1.01%-0.71%-0.47%-0.59%-0.39%CAD0.14%0.29%0.03%0.71%0.25%0.12%0.47%AUD-0.08%0.06%-0.21%0.47%-0.25%0.00%0.14%NZD-0.12%0.06%-0.23%0.59%-0.12%-0.00%0.15%CHF-0.29%-0.11%-0.36%0.39%-0.47%-0.14%-0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Strategists at Rabobank point out that “for the UK, the market is currently pricing in a reduced expectation of a rate hike by the end of the year,
This week, the major trigger for the British currency will be the preliminary United Kingdom (UK) Q2 and the June month Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be released on Thursday. In the April-June period, the UK economy is expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 0.4% vs. the previous reading of 0.6%. On a monthly basis, the GDP is seen contracting by 0.1%.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades almost flat at press time, holding onto Monday’s recovery move at around 99.80. The USD Index is expected to remain sideways as investors await the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday.
US inflation seen firming but not reaccelerating in JulyBrown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad expects the upcoming US July CPI report to show inflation "firm modestly but stop short of signaling a renewed acceleration in inflation." He notes that "headline CPI is expected to rise +0.1% m/m vs. -0.4% in June and ease to 3.4% y/y vs. 3.5% in June," while "core CPI is expected to rise +0.2% m/m vs. 0.0% in June and ease to 2.5% y/y vs. 2.6% in June." The data are due Wednesday and, in Haddad’s view, should confirm a gradual cooling in underlying price pressures rather than a renewed upswing.
The US inflation data will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate expectations, as the July monetary policy statement showed heightened concerns among policymakers toward upside inflation risks.
Lately, traders have priced out the possibility of a Fed interest rate hike in the September meeting after the release of weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3500, retaining a bullish near-term tone as spot holds above the 60-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3403 and the broken downward resistance trend line now offering support around 1.3456. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.1 leans into positive territory, suggesting buyers remain in control while momentum is not yet stretched into overbought conditions.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the former trend-line cap turned floor near 1.3456, followed by the 60-day EMA at 1.3403, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract fresh demand. As long as GBP/USD defends these layers of underlying support, the pair would likely continue to favor the topside, with bulls eyeing further gains above the recent 1.3509 close in the sessions ahead.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
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The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Market moving news for Asian trading on Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Singapore doubles 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% on tech cycle upgradeRupee set to open weaker as oil pressure builds, RBI support in focusSources: BoJ could raise rates again at September 17-18 meetingSouth Korea: Kospi rises for second day as Samsung Electronics jumps circa 3.6%Australian business conditions edge higher in July but confidence stays fragileNZ PM Luxon calls urgent caucus meeting to address leadership speculationPBOC sets seven-day reverse repo volume at ZERO on Tuesday, citing primary dealer demandGold hits two-month high as markets await US inflation data this weekUK data: Barclaycard spending rises 2.0% in July as consumer confidence hits 21-month highPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7900 (vs. estimate at 6.7497)Yen strength still hinges on BOJ hike, not capital repatriation (or intervention!), Goldman saysIntel plans to sell $15 billion worth of stock after it has risen 400% in a yearYen support looks fragile; Tokyo opts for passive strategy, missed chance to press intervention advantageRBA set to hold rates today, but markets will be watching the fine printPreview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decisionICYMI - Cleveland Fed's Hammack says Fed should already be raising rates, more than one hike neededUNCONFIRMED - Incoming report of further cruise missile launches from Sirik, IranMUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate buildsWhat'd I miss? Trump counters Iran reparations demand, pushing Hormuz deal further out of reach.Summary:
Oil stays supported as Hormuz deal hopes dim further on tit-for-tat reparations demands from Iran and TrumpLibya's NOC declares force majeure at Zawiya refinery after armed clashes and storage tank fires, threatening El Sharara outputRussia's Komsomolsk refinery in Khabarovsk Krai attacked, over 6,500km from UkraineFX subdued; AUD in focus ahead of RBA decision (2:30pm Sydney), hawkish hold expectedKospi up circa 0.6% for a second day on Samsung strength; won stronger, foreigners net buyersJapan closed for holiday; media reports firm September 18 BoJ hike expectations, yen little moved regardlessSingapore Q2 GDP beats at 5.9% y/y, 2026 growth forecast raised to 4.5-5.5% on AI boom; MAS says policy stance remains appropriateOil remained supported in the absence of a Strait of Hormuz deal and with efforts to reopen the waterway dampened by tit-for-tat demands by Iran and US President Trump for reparations.
Further, Libya's NOC declares force majeure at Zawiya refinery after clashes. Libya's state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) declared force majeure at its 120,000 b/d Zawiya refinery following clashes between armed groups. The refinery experienced fires after storage tanks were hit, multiple times, threatening production at the El Sharara oil field.
Russia's Komsomolsk Oil Refinery in Khabarovsk Krai came under attack. This is 6,500+ kms from Ukraine.
FX traded in subdued ranges. AUD traders are awaiting the RBA at 2:30pm Sydney time / 0430 GMT / 0030 US Eastern time, with Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock's press conference following an hour later. A hawkish hold is expected.
RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% TuesdayRBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35%Preview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026
MUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate buildsPreview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decisionRBA set to hold rates today, but markets will be watching the fine printSouth Korea's Kospi rose for a second straight day, up around 0.6%, as Samsung Electronics jumped circa 3.6% while SK Hynix and LG Energy Solution slipped. Foreigners were net buyers and the won strengthened, even as broader sentiment stayed cautious on the Middle East conflict.
Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Reports from Japanese media, citing unnamed sources, firmed expectations for a Bank of Japan September (18th) interest rate hike. The yen fell regardless, though only in a small range.
Singapore's economy grew 5.9% year on year in Q2, beating forecasts, as the government raised its 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% from 2.0-4.0%, citing a stronger than expected AI investment boom offsetting a less severe than feared Middle East war impact. An official from Singapore's central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, said the country's monetary policy stance remains appropriate.
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Singapore doubles 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% on tech cycle upgradeinvestingLive Asia-Pacific Financial Market news: Oil and gold stay near highs Rupee set to open weaker as oil pressure builds, RBI support in focusSources: BoJ could raise rates again at September 17-18 meetingSouth Korea: Kospi rises for second day as Samsung Electronics jumps circa 3.6%Australian business conditions edge higher in July but confidence stays fragileNZ PM Luxon calls urgent caucus meeting to address leadership speculationPBOC sets seven-day reverse repo volume at ZERO on Tuesday, citing primary dealer demandGold hits two-month high as markets await US inflation data this weekUK data: Barclaycard spending rises 2.0% in July as consumer confidence hits 21-month high
Gold is holding firm above $4,400 in Asia on Tuesday, extending its bullish run into a third consecutive day. Traders now look forward to Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for the next major move.
Gold shrugs off elevated Oil prices, for nowAll that’s glittering so far this week is Gold, and rightly so, as bulls continue to cheer fading expectations for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September.
The odds of such a move now remain at a coin-toss level, per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, in the aftermath of the unexpected 23,000-job decline in Nonfarm Payrolls in July.
This narrative has weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD) across the board, supporting bullion. That was accompanied by optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and easing Oil prices and inflation concerns.
However, the overnight surge in Oil prices restokes inflationary fears, particularly after negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran over a peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz hit an impasse.
“In a post on Truth Social on Monday, US President Donald Trump said he was issuing the demand for war reparations in response to Iranian negotiators making similar claims for damages for the five-month war that has killed thousands and devastated Iran’s military and economy,” per The Guardian.
In an additional setback to the diplomatic efforts, Iranian outlets and a X post by an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reported that Tehran will wait until the US President’s term ends on January 20, 2029, to resume talks.
The renewed pessimism around the Mideast conflict has fuelled risk aversion across Asia, sending Oil prices and US Treasury bond yields higher.
Against this backdrop, it remains to be seen if Gold sustains the ongoing uptrend. The bright metal also risks a corrective decline on likely profit-taking, as traders could opt for repositioning ahead of the critical US inflation report due on Wednesday.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,427.44. The metal holds a bullish near-term tone as spot price trades above the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs), with the latter now offering nearby trend support around $4,389.72. The 200-day SMA at $4,498.91 remains the primary overhead barrier, capping further upside for now. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 69.22 flirts with overbought territory, suggesting buying pressure is strong but vulnerable to consolidation if momentum cools.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 200-day SMA at $4,498.91, and a daily close above this level would open the door to a stronger bullish extension. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA near $4,389.72, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,149.71 and the 21-day SMA at $4,120.24, which collectively form a broad underlying demand zone on any deeper pullbacks.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Additional insights: China extends PBOC buying streak and speculative longs riseAnalysts at ING note that gold “extended its rally last week after the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 640koz (around 20 tonnes), the largest monthly addition since October 2023.” They highlight that “official reserves have now risen for 21 consecutive months as China continues to diversify reserves and strengthen its position in the global bullion market,” underscoring the sustained central-bank demand backdrop.
Beyond official sector buying, ING points out that “speculative sentiment remained supportive across metals.” In precious metals specifically, “managed money increased net long positions in COMEX gold to the highest level since January, while net longs in COMEX silver rose for the first time in five weeks,” reinforcing the constructive tone across the complex.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold (XAU/USD) scales higher for the third consecutive day – also marking the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six – and climbs to its highest level since June 5, further beyond the $4,400 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday. A weak US jobs report released last Friday pointed to signs of a cooling labor market, undermining the case for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates and driving flows towards the non-yielding bullion.
Investors, however, remain worried about inflation risks stemming from volatile crude oil prices due to the Iran war. This keeps Fed rate hike bets firmly on the table, which helps the US Dollar (USD) preserve the previous day's modest recovery gains and could act as a headwind for the Gold price. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s demand for compensation over damages caused during the war; instead, he held Iran responsible for lives lost across the region.
Meanwhile, Iran ruled out any future negotiations with Trump and said that it will wait until the US President’s term ends on January 20, 2029, to resume talks, dampening hopes for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains choked due to the Iran-backed Houthis' naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. This led to the overnight sharp spike in crude oil prices and revived inflation fears. Moreover, traders are still pricing in at least one rate hike by the Fed in 2026.
The outlook, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which favors USD bulls and warrants caution before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for gold. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the US inflation figures – the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The crucial data will be looked upon for more cues about the Fed's future policy path, which, in turn, will influence the USD and the XAU/USD pair.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical AnalysisAn intraday breakout through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June fall suggest that buyers retain control. This, in turn, supports prospects for additional gains to the 200-day SMA at $4,498, en route to the 61.8% retracement at $4,515 and then the higher 78.6% level near $4,669. On the downside, immediate support is offered by the 50.0% retracement at $4,406, reinforced by the 100-day SMA at $4,389, with deeper structural floors aligning at the 38.2% retracement near $4,297 and the 23.6% level at $4,162 ahead of the cycle low around $3,945.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver recently broke the resistance zone between the resistance level 62.60 (top of the previous wave 2 from July) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.
The breakout of this resistance zone greatly accelerated the active impulse wave C of the ABC correction (2) from the middle of July.
Given the strength of the active impulse wave C, Silver can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 71.60 – top of wave 2 from June.
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Silver price (XAG/USD) depreciates after two days of gains, trading around $66.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The price of non-yielding Silver has taken a hit recently as rising oil prices spark renewed inflation fears and heighten expectations for interest rate hikes.
Markets remain deeply cautious due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding a potential deal between the United States (US) and Iran to end the conflict and reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical tension has driven a sharp rally in crude oil, which in turn has pushed Treasury yields higher.
Meanwhile, concerns are growing that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may feel compelled to raise rates sooner rather than later, even against the backdrop of a cooling labor market. Investors are now closely watching upcoming inflation data this week to gauge the Fed's next move, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing that market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September have climbed above 51%, up from 44.4% just a day prior.
Despite these immediate headwinds, the outlook for the white metal isn't entirely dim, as strong industrial demand could soon provide a solid floor for prices. Silver continues to benefit from major global initiatives, particularly the expanding production of solar panels and upgrades to electrical grids. Underscoring this robust physical demand, recent trade data revealed that Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores experienced a massive surge, jumping 62.5% year-over-year in June to reach 219,000 tonnes.
Silver price pulled back after hitting seven-week highs on Monday amid a rally in gold fueled by improving investment demand for precious metals. According to TD Securities, “precious metals hit pause,” with the yellow metal “holding gains after the weaker jobs numbers further questioned the probability of coming Fed hikes.” The bank’s commodity strategists note that the softer US labor data has eased perceived policy tightening risks, helping to underpin gold prices even as broader momentum in the complex stalls.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.7900 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7884 and 6.7497 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Softer inflation lowers urgency for immediate RBA hike Markets still favour one more hike this cycle Renewed energy price strength delivers Aussie terms-of-trade tailwind EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD trade setups in focus A likely hawkish hold from the RBA and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Gulf driving energy prices higher have swung the fundamental backdrop in favour of the Aussie relative to the European crosses.
Inflation undershoots, unemployment overshoots The RBA clearly thought there was more momentum in the economy in May than what eventually showed up in the data. It overestimated the inflationary pulse and underestimated the increase in unemployment, with both headline and trimmed mean inflation undershooting its May forecasts while unemployment overshot.
Source: FOREX.com
At face value, that suggests the path towards getting inflation back to acceptable levels may be a little more advanced than the Bank thought three months ago. But inflation is still too high, which is why the risk of another hike has not been completely snuffed out.
Markets push tightening risk further out
Source: TradingView, FOREX.com
While there is little probability attached to a hike today, making this meeting look very much like a placeholder with a hawkish hold, go further out the curve and the risk of tightening is still there. By November, when the next set of forecasts after today will be released, markets are basically at a coin flip on another hike. That lifts to 82% by February next year.
So while the amount of tightening priced by traders has been pared back relative to what underpinned the RBA’s May forecasts, the market still thinks there is a decent chance the Bank will need to go again this cycle.
Source: FOREX.com
The question is what that means for the RBA’s updated forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment and inflation released today. My suspicion is that the slight unwind in hawkish pricing will not have a particularly meaningful impact, with outcomes similar to those forecast in May.
Source: FOREX.com
Spending resilience meets housing weakness One area where the Bank’s language may be upgraded is household spending. At the June meeting, the RBA said it was “slowing as expected”, but recent data has been quite strong, particularly in discretionary areas, questioning whether that view is still warranted.
However, that potential upgrade could be offset by the housing market, where the decline in house prices has accelerated and broadened since the Bank met six weeks ago. What had been weakness in some capital cities is now more widespread, potentially becoming a larger drag on household demand.
Given the data trend and potential statement tweaks, it’s very likely the RBA will retain the guidance used in July that it “will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome, including increasing the cash rate target further if required.” That basically gives the Bank room to sit comfortably for now while keeping the tightening option firmly on the table.
Terms of trade tailwinds favour the Aussie When it’s all said and done, I expect the RBA will be aiming to keep market pricing relatively unchanged, avoiding an unnecessary loosening in financial conditions that would make the task of reducing inflationary pressures more difficult. That points to the Aussie dollar continuing to be underpinned by hawkish rate expectations.
And when it comes to the European crosses, the Aussie also has the advantage of being a major energy exporter, meaning higher energy prices due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Gulf deliver a positive terms-of-trade shock, the exact opposite of what we see in Europe. When you throw energy insecurity into the mix, it points to tailwinds building for the Aussie relative to the European crosses.
EUR/AUD bears eye 1.6340 break
Source: TradingView
EUR/AUD looks heavy on the charts, sitting just above support at 1.6340. If the pair breaks beneath 1.6340 support and holds there, shorts could be set with a tight stop above the level for protection, targeting 1.6260, where the pair bottomed in July. Beyond that, a break of 1.6260 would open the door for a retest of 1.6130, where the price has bottomed and bounced on multiple occasions going back several years.
The message from the oscillators at this point is neutral. RSI (14) has been setting sequentially lower highs and now sits marginally below the neutral 50 level. MACD has also turned negative and is on the cusp of a bearish crossover. But neither indicator is providing a strong steer, placing more emphasis on price action.
GBP/AUD squeeze risk builds near 1.9150
Source: TradingView
While the fundamental backdrop favours downside for GBP/AUD, the price action warns of a potential squeeze and near-term topside break ahead of the RBA. The level in focus today is 1.9150, which has repeatedly acted as support and resistance in recent weeks. The pair is now squeezing up against that level while remaining within the broader uptrend running from the low set in late May.
With an engulfing candle printing on Monday, a clean break above 1.9150 could put the August 3 high at 1.9260 in play. Beyond that, resistance sits at 1.9350, with the 200-day simple moving average around 1.9370 and the March swing high at 1.9400 just above. If the pair breaks cleanly above 1.9150, longs could be set with a tight stop beneath the level for protection, targeting those upside levels.
Alternatively, if 1.9150 continues to cap gains, as has been the case over recent sessions, shorts could be set with a tight stop above the level, targeting a retest of the May uptrend, followed by 1.9004, the swing low set on July 28. Beyond that, 1.8945 comes into focus, having acted as resistance earlier this year.
Mirroring EUR/AUD, the oscillators are neutral for GBP/AUD. RSI (14) sits just above 50, while MACD is running parallel to the signal line around breakeven, placing more emphasis on price action for guidance.
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The Euro is poised to end Monday’s session with losses of about 0.13% against the Greenback, as recent news points to a delay in talks between the US and Iran, while, from a technical perspective, EUR/USD stalled at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.1568.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookOverall, the EUR/USD is poised to consolidate further, though it is slightly tilted to the upside after buyers reclaimed the 50-day SMA. Momentum confirms the short-term upward bias, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
That said, the first resistance for EUR/USD is the 100-day SMA. A breach of the latter will expose 1.1600, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1629. Once those two levels are removed, the next target is the 1.1700 psychological figure.
On the flip side, if EUR/USD drops below 1.1500, a pullback towards the 50-day SMA at 1.1469 is on the cards. Below, the next area of interest is the 1.1400 mark, followed by the July 28 swing low of 1.1353.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Daily
EUR/USD daily chart Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.04%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%-0.00%-0.04%EUR-0.04%0.01%0.00%-0.00%-0.02%0.02%-0.04%GBP-0.00%-0.01%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%JPY-0.02%0.00%0.00%-0.03%-0.00%0.37%-0.00%CAD-0.01%0.00%-0.02%0.03%0.03%0.38%0.01%AUD0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%-0.03%0.00%0.03%NZD0.00%-0.02%-0.01%-0.37%-0.38%-0.01%0.03%CHF0.04%0.04%-0.00%0.00%-0.01%-0.03%-0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The Japanese yen came under broad pressure on Monday, allowing yen crosses to recover some of their post-intervention losses. However, with the MOF and US Treasury prepared to coordinate again and US CPI due Wednesday, yen bears may be playing with fire as USD/JPY approaches key resistance.
View related analysis:
Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Plunge Loses Steam, but Risks Remain Gold Price Outlook: Can Quiet Accumulation Trigger a Breakout? Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD in the Hands of the RBA and US CPI FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar Longs Plunged, Yen Shorts Slashed Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Faces CPI and Intervention Risks The Japanese yen was the weakest FX major on Monday, falling against all other FX majors and allowing yen pairs to recoup some of their post-intervention losses. GBP/JPY rose around 1% to a one-week high, while the 0.9% gain on USD/JPY marked its best day since January.
The move looks less like a fresh bout of US dollar strength and more like a partial unwinding of the post-intervention yen squeeze, with traders seemingly willing to rebuild yen-funded carry positions as the initial shock fades. However, there is a significant difference this time around: traders know that Japan is prepared to intervene again, and the US Treasury has joined forces with the Ministry of Finance to support the yen.
Source: LSEG
Yen Weakness Returns, but Intervention Risk Remains That arguably makes the current yen sell-off a case of traders playing with fire. The underlying carry dynamics still favour yen weakness, but the prospect of another coordinated intervention means the risk is no longer simply about getting the direction wrong. A sharp and potentially disorderly reversal remains a genuine threat, particularly if USD/JPY approaches the levels that previously prompted action.
For now, however, the yen has begun to retrace some of its intervention-driven gains. The charts show how far that recovery could extend across the major yen crosses.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Softer US CPI Could Renew Pressure on USD/JPY While traders would be wise to keep a wary eye on the potential for fresh intervention in the yen, the main calendar event is Wednesday’s US inflation report. Traders have scaled back bets of a Fed hike in recent weeks, with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report being the latest to disappoint. This puts traders on high alert for pockets of weak US data, and US CPI is no exception.
With the MOF joining forces with the US Treasury and vowing to intervene, even a slightly softer CPI report could bode well for USD/JPY bears. And that means we’ll be keeping a very close eye on how USD/JPY responds to the plethora of resistance levels nearby.
Source: BLS, ISM, LSEG
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen The daily chart shows that USD/JPY managed to use the 200-day EMA as a springboard and rally to a six-day high, marking its most bullish day since January. Still, the high-to-low range indicator (bottom panel) shows that volatility remains low compared to the bearish sell-off after the MOF and US Treasury joined forces to intervene in the yen and send it lower by 4% over a two-day period. The sell-off was also exacerbated by the less hawkish-than-expected FOMC meeting.
Ultimately, this move appears corrective to my eyes. And with the risk of another round of intervention growing while USD/JPY continues to rally, bulls may want to tread with caution and keep a close eye on resistance levels.
Tuesday’s high met resistance at the monthly pivot point (159.53), with the 160 handle, July low (160.47) and 160.88 high all providing additional levels of resistance for bears to track. But if US CPI comes in soft, it could provide a great timing tool for the MOF to pull the trigger again – like they did after a soft US CPI print in July 2024.
Citi Mexico released the Expectations Survey on Monday, in which the central bank polled 35 economists to gather their forecasts for monetary policy, the USD/MXN exchange Rate, inflation expectations, and economic growth.
Citi’s survey shows that the majority of the economists polled expect monetary policy to remain steady at 6.50%. Seven of those 35 expect the next movement to be a rate hike, and six expect a cut further ahead. The rest expect policy to remain steady.
The USD/MXN exchange rate is expected to end at 17.90 in 2026, unchanged. For 2027, the consensus suggests a depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN), with the exchange rate seen at 18.50, with expectations of trading within a range of 17.40-19.95.
Regarding inflation expectations for July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected at 3.13% YoY, down from 3.37% in the previous survey, while core CPI is seen at 3.94% YoY, lower than the previous survey's 4.03%.
For the medium term, CPI is projected to end at 4.02% YoY, down from 4.09%, while Core CPI, the component, is expected to drop from 4.10% to 4%.
The Mexican economy is projected to grow 1.2% in 2026, up from 1.1% in the last survey, while for 2027, the projections show the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ending at 1.8%, unchanged from the previous survey.
Mexican Peso FAQs The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Silver’s bullish reversal is gaining strength after resistance turned support, putting near-term targets in focus while opening a potential path toward the $71–$72 resistance zone.
Resistance Turns Into Support Silver extended its short-term bull trend on Monday with a marginal new high of $65.29. Price action for the session confirmed support near a key prior resistance level, reaching a low of $62.99 for the session before buyers stepped in and drove price to new highs for the day. That low was a successful test of support near the lower swing high from early July at $63.28.
The confirmation that this price zone has switched from resistance to support further strengthens the advance and suggests that higher targets may be reached before momentum falters. Moreover, the 50-day moving average has been reclaimed for two sessions, with Monday’s close holding above it; the average is currently near $61.94.
Spot silver daily chart shows retention of recent gains. Source: TradingView $66.53–$66.10 Comes Into View Trading remains near the highs of the day at the time of writing and silver is on track to close in the upper third of the day’s range and post a new daily closing high for the current advance. The strength confirmed above puts the next higher target in sight near $66.53 to $66.10. That zone consists of the 161.8% Fibonacci projection for a small rising ABCD pattern and the 50% retracement of a prior decline.
Spot silver daily chart shows advance from lower channel boundary test of support. Source: TradingView Bigger Resistance Test Nonetheless, the successful test of support near the $63.28 lower swing high further confirms the trend reversal signal that triggered above that level. Beyond the $66.53 to $66.10 target zone, the area around the 200-day moving average near $71.18 presents the more significant potential resistance zone, especially since it lies near a long-term rising trendline, which also represents possible dynamic resistance.
The 200-day moving average begins a range of possible resistance up to the nearby 50% retracement of a second prior downswing at $72.08. Further enhancing the potential significance of the $71.18 to $72.08 price zone is another lower swing high from the prior downtrend structure at $71.56. A recovery above that swing high would trigger another trend reversal signal, making the $63.28 support test discussed at the beginning of the analysis an important early confirmation of the broader trend reversal.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Silver (XAG/USD) price climbs over 3% on Monday even though US Treasury yields rose, with the white metal refreshing seven-week highs at $66.07. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $65.76 with buyers eyeing key resistance levels.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookIn the short term, Silver continues to consolidate after clearing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $61.95, opening the door to further upside. However, the market structure continues to indicate that sellers are in charge unless XAG/USD clears the June 17 cycle high of $71.56, which would open the door to further upside.
Buyers continued to gain momentum, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Hence, the path of least resistance is upwards.
The first key resistance is the 100-day SMA at $68.96. A breach of the latter will expose the psychological $70.00, followed by the 200-day SMA at $71.30. On further strength, the next stop is the April 17 high at $83.06.
Downwards, the first support is the low of the day at $63.28. Once hurdled, the next stop would be the 50-day SMA at $61.95, followed by a support trendline at around $57.50-$57.75.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Bitcoin Talking points: BTC/USD broke out three weeks ago but once again, life above $65k was short-lived. That price was resistance for five consecutive days until today, where sellers took on more of a role to push price down to a fresh low. This begs the question as to whether bears can push down for a test of next support at $62.5k.
At this point the breakout in Bitcoin has failed and this dashes hopes of a changing of the guard for the world’s favored anti-fiat.
While Bitcoin was lauded as ‘digital gold’ a year ago, the $125k level proved to be too hard for buyers and the profit taking that brought out drove a retracement that currently stands at around 50% from that prior all-time-high.
Of course, gold had its own issues earlier this year after topping just below the $5600 level but given that the high in gold was about three months after the high in Bitcoin, the ‘digital gold’ idea was very much on its back foot when that sell-off began. After BTC flirted with a re-test of the $100k level in January, that’s when disaster hit for both gold and Bitcoin longs and it only took a few weeks for BTC/USD to set up on the $65k level, which was support for five consecutive weeks from February through March.
BTC/USD Weekly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Bitcoin’s Next Test With the $65k failure, the question now is whether buyers come in to defend the lows and most recently, it was a batch of support that had built right around the $62,500 area on eh chart. There were approximately four days of support around that price until buyers lifted into $65k, so, if bullish, then ideally bulls would come in to offer some element of higher-low defense.
If they fail, the next spot down is around $61,500, which held a batch of higher-lows before the initial re-test of the $65k resistance level.
If that fails to hold, then it’s the $60k level that shows prominently and, so far, there’s been lacking momentum from bears beyond that level, as the post-Fed sell-off drove a break and a test below the big figure but bears were seemingly disinterested in follow-through.
Interestingly, that’s around the time of the $4k test in gold but the response to support in Bitcoin seemed faster, and more aggressive than what showed in gold which ultimately took about a month before buyers were able to force the breakout.
BTC/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
A historic shift in global capital may already be underway and Gold and Silver are moving rapidly towards its centre.
Trump’s tariffs are reigniting inflation risks. The U.S dollar faces mounting structural pressure. Expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening are fading. Central banks are accumulating Gold at record pace, while traders are questioning some of the decade’s most crowded equity trades.
These are not isolated developments. Together, they could trigger a profound rotation towards tangible hard assets.
The first week of August may have delivered the warning shot: Gold surged more than 10%, while Silver gained over 12%. On August 5 alone, Gold jumped almost 7% – roughly $300 – rallying above $4,300 an ounce, while Silver moved within striking distance of $64.
For traders waiting for confirmation, the window may already be narrowing.
China’s appetite for Gold is accelerating.
The People’s Bank of China officially added approximately 20 tonnes in July – its largest monthly increase since October 2023 – following additions of roughly 15 tonnes in June and 10 tonnes in May.
That lifted reported holdings to a record 2,366 tonnes and extended China’s accumulation streak to 21 consecutive months.
But Beijing’s ambitions extend beyond buying bullion. Hong Kong is developing new Gold clearing and settlement infrastructure designed to strengthen its role in global trading, storage and price discovery, alongside greater connectivity with mainland markets.
China is not simply accumulating Gold. It is helping build the infrastructure around it.
“Central banks rarely make strategic moves of this magnitude because of short-term price forecasts,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “They position for structural shifts years before they become obvious to everyone else.”
Gold is now approaching a potentially decisive technical threshold.
After one of its strongest weeks of 2026, prices are pressing towards $4,400 amid softer U.S economic signals, fiscal concerns and sustained institutional and Asian demand.
A convincing breakout could draw momentum capital into the market and force underexposed funds to chase.
“Major bull markets build higher floors and then punish hesitation,” Hansen says. “Once the breakout becomes obvious, the prices traders wanted are often already gone.”
If Gold is the monetary hedge, Silver could become the higher-beta expression of the same trade.
Its dramatically smaller market makes it particularly sensitive to investment flows, while demand from electrification, solar power and technology infrastructure provides a powerful industrial tailwind.
Gold historically leads major precious-metals cycles. But when participation broadens, Silver can move considerably faster.
Its 12%-plus surge during the opening week of August suggests that process may already be starting.
The currency backdrop raises the stakes further.
Pressure on the U.S dollar, shifting expectations for monetary policy and strains surrounding the yen carry trade could increasingly favour hard assets if global capital begins seeking alternatives to dollar denominated financial assets.
“A sustained dollar decline would dramatically strengthen the precious-metals thesis,” Hansen says. “Major currency cycles can provide fuel for Gold and Silver bull markets for years.”
Tariff-driven inflation. Central-bank accumulation. China strengthening its Gold infrastructure. A vulnerable dollar. Fading expectations for tighter Fed policy. Capital searching for alternatives to crowded financial assets.
Together, they could create one of the most powerful precious-metals environments of the decade.
“The biggest fortunes are rarely made after everyone agrees the bull market has begun,” Hansen says. “They are made during the transition, while positioning is still catching up with reality.”
That is why $4,400 matters.
If Gold breaks decisively above it and institutional capital follows, today’s prices may not remain available for long.
By the time the next Gold and Silver bull market becomes front-page news, the greatest opportunity may already have passed.
That is welcome news for the bulls already positioned – but potentially painful for those still sitting on the sidelines. With Gold and Silver accelerating while some of the world’s most powerful institutions continue accumulating, traders now face a simple question:
How much FOMO can they afford to handle if this breakout becomes the next major bull run?
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances during the North American session on Monday, up 0.2% as markets digest developments in the Middle East and await crucial inflation data in the United States (US). The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3520 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3483. Read More...
British Pound tests 1.3500 as US Dollar struggles to shake off NFP shockGBP/USD trades around 1.3495 on Monday at the time of writing, up a modest 0.04% on the day. However, the pair struggles to hold firmly above the psychological 1.3500 level after benefiting on Friday from a decline in the US Dollar (USD) triggered by disappointing United States (US) employment data. Read More...
British Pound outperforms at the start of the UK Q2 GDP data weekThe British Pound (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers and is marginally up at around 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The outperformance in the British currency seems unlikely to sustain as traders seem confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will not hike interest rates in the near term despite rising oil prices prompting global inflation expectations. Read More...
A convincing breakout could draw momentum capital into the market and force underexposed funds to chase.
“Major bull markets build higher floors and then punish hesitation,” Hansen says. “Once the breakout becomes obvious, the prices traders wanted are often already gone.”
Silver Could Become the Accelerator If Gold is the monetary hedge, Silver could become the higher-beta expression of the same trade.
Its dramatically smaller market makes it particularly sensitive to investment flows, while demand from electrification, solar power and technology infrastructure provides a powerful industrial tailwind.
Gold historically leads major precious-metals cycles. But when participation broadens, Silver can move considerably faster.
Its 12%-plus surge during the opening week of August suggests that process may already be starting.
The Dollar Could Add Fuel to the Fire The currency backdrop raises the stakes further.
Pressure on the U.S dollar, shifting expectations for monetary policy and strains surrounding the yen carry trade could increasingly favour hard assets if global capital begins seeking alternatives to dollar-denominated financial assets.
“A sustained dollar decline would dramatically strengthen the precious-metals thesis,” Hansen says. “Major currency cycles can provide fuel for Gold and Silver bull markets for years.”
The Great Rotation May Have Started Tariff-driven inflation. Central-bank accumulation. China strengthening its Gold infrastructure. A vulnerable dollar. Fading expectations for tighter Fed policy. Capital searching for alternatives to crowded financial assets.
Together, they could create one of the most powerful precious-metals environments of the decade.
“The biggest fortunes are rarely made after everyone agrees the bull market has begun,” Hansen says. “They are made during the transition, while positioning is still catching up with reality.”
That is why $4,400 matters.
If Gold breaks decisively above it and institutional capital follows, today’s prices may not remain available for long.
By the time the next Gold and Silver bull market becomes front-page news, the greatest opportunity may already have passed.
That is welcome news for the bulls already positioned – but potentially painful for those still sitting on the sidelines. With Gold and Silver accelerating while some of the world’s most powerful institutions continue accumulating, traders now face a simple question:
How much FOMO can they afford to handle if this breakout becomes the next major bull run?
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
Gold (XAU/USD) price edges up at the beginning of the week as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faces delays due to demands from Iran to the US, and is capped by the modest strength of the Greenback, with traders eyeing the release of crucial US inflation data. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,352, up 0.50%, after bouncing off daily lows of $4,316.
XAU/USD holds above $4,350 as investors weigh Oil-driven inflation risks, Fed bets and upcoming US dataThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the buck against a basket of peers, is up 0.14% at 99.75 as market participants continue to digest the US and Japanese interventions in the FX markets.
Last week, a softer-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the jobs market remains in a low-hiring, low-firing mode, as said by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. The US economy slashed 23K jobs, missing forecasts for an 80K increase, and the May and June numbers were revised downward. Although the data sparked a trimming of Fed hawkish bets, it's just one reading, and now eyes turn to the release of US inflation figures.
July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to ease from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items, is projected to tick lower from 2.6% to 2.5% YoY. A day after this, on Thursday, the Producer Price Index is also projected to ease.
On the same day, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 8 are expected to rise from 199K to 201K. Due to the weaker-than-expected NFP, claims will be closely watched by investors, who are also looking for signs of weakness in the labor market that could prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates, even though inflation remains stubbornly high.
So far, money markets have priced in 22 basis points of tightening by the Federal Reserve towards the end of 2026, up from 17 basis points expected last Friday, according to Prime Terminal data.
Aside from this, geopolitics continued to move the needle, including the exacerbated rally in Oil prices, a headwind for the yellow metal. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude benchmark, is up nearly 6% to $81.54 per barrel as talks for a reopening of Hormuz continue, but progress has slowed after Iran said the US should agree to Tehran’s demands.
Iran’s demands are that there should be an end to hostilities, a halt to military actions, withdrawal of US forces, compensation for war damages, lifting of sanctions and release of frozen assets. If met, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could be faster.
XAU/USD price forecast: Gold faces 100-day SMA as bulls target $4,500Gold price advance continued, but as of writing, it remains below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,389, seen as crucial for buyers if they would like to conquer higher prices.
Momentum is bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which confirms further upside. Hence, the path of least resistance is tilted to the upside. If XAU/USD clears the 100-day SMA, this clears the path to challenge the $4,400 psychological level. Above lies the 200-day SMA at $4,498, followed by the $4,500 milestone.
On the downside, initial support is at the July 6 high, now at $4,202. If this level fails, the next support levels are the 50-day SMA at $4,150 and $4,100.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
“(…)Despite two attempts, the upper boundary of the June 18 bearish gap (1736-1792) continues to hold, which means the gap remains active.
Therefore, only a daily close above 1792 would open the door toward the 1824-1848 resistance zone and potentially even the psychological 1900 level.
In our opinion, as long as platinum remains above the upper boundary of the green ascending channel – which recently replaced the triangle formation – buyers continue to hold the technical advantage. (…)”
What would invalidate the bullish setup?
A daily close below 1726 would create two important bearish technical developments at once: an invalidation of the earlier breakout above the upper boundary of the green ascending channel and a breakdown below the orange consolidation.
If that happens, sellers would likely turn their attention toward 1655-1658, where the minimum downside target meets the previously broken upper boundary of the multi-week orange consolidation.
Platinum Takeaway Watch 1726-1792 range. Daily close above 1792 opens the way toward 1824-1848 and potentially 1900. Daily close below 1726 invalidates the bullish setup and shifts attention toward 1655-1658. Until either boundary breaks, there is no confirmed trade outside the consolidation.
Treasury yields moved higher as bond traders focused on rising oil prices. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.24% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.70%.
Rising Treasury yields did not put pressure on gold markets as traders remained focused on the recent Non Farm Payrolls report, which indicated that U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July. The report had a material impact on Fed policy outlook.
FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 50.3% chance that Fed will keep rates unchanged at the next meeting in September. It should be noted that the probability of a rate hike has started to rise again due to the rally in the oil markets, but it did not have a material impact on gold price dynamics.
U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies, supported by rising Treasury yields. Stronger dollar is bearish for gold and other dollar-denominated commodities but traders have mostly ignored the dynamics of the American currency in today’s trading session.
Gold continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at $4360 – $4380. In case gold manages to settle above the $4380 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the $4480 – $4500 range. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
XAU/USD Current price: $4,355The Middle East crisis with no end in sight leads the market’s sentiment.The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday.XAU/USD consolidates gains near a two-month high. Spot Gold trades near the multi-week peak posted on Friday at $4,371.79, recovering ground after starting the week with a down note. The US Dollar (USD) surged early in the Asian session on news indicating that the naval blockage in the Strait of Hormuz escalated over the weekend, with the United States (US) military redirecting commercial vessels away from Iranian ports, clearly indicating how far from resolving the crisis the two parts are.
The latest on the issue indicates that Tehran submitted a list of demands to reopen the critical sea passage, while US President Donald Trump noted the US will wait for the economic pressure on Iran to mount.
The USD, however, shed ground on the back of strong stocks’ performance, with Asian indexes soaring amid decreased hopes for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike following the poor employment report published by the US on Friday. US indexes trade near record highs, although with limited momentum, the same as the absent strength seen across the FX board.
A scarce macroeconomic calendar exacerbated the quietness across the FX board on Monday, with the focus shifting to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision early Tuesday, and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Wednesday. The RBA is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold, although the Board will present fresh forecasts, providing hints on what to expect for the next meetings.
As for the US CPI, annual inflation is foreseen at 3.4% in July, slightly below the 3.5% posted in June. The core annual reading is expected at 2.5%, easing from the previous 2.6%. The figures could support the case for a no rate move in September, leading to additional XAU/USD gains.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart shows XAU/USD holds a bullish near-term bias as it extends its recovery well above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,103.23, while still trading beneath the 100-day SMA at $4,389.19 and the 200-day SMA at $4,496.62, which cap the broader uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator around 66 suggests buyers retain the grip, while the positive Momentum (14) reading reinforces the constructive tone as long as price stays anchored above the short-term average.
In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD is also bullish. The 20-period SMA at $4,296.08 and the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs at $4,112.53 and $4,091.06, respectively, reinforce a firmly supported structure. Momentum remains constructive, with the RSI hovering around 72, hinting at mildly overbought conditions while the 14-period Momentum indicator stays in positive territory, suggesting buyers still retain control, albeit with growing risk of a pause or corrective consolidation.
On the upside, initial resistance appears at the 100-day SMA near $4,389, with a subsequent barrier at the 200-day SMA around $4,497, where sellers could attempt to stall the advance. On the downside, the short-term 20-period SMA near $4,296.08 acts as immediate support, followed by the $4,220 price zone. As long as the latter holds, the risk skews to the upside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Key Points:EUR/USD settled near the 1.1550 level as traders focused on the strong rally in the oil markets. USD/CAD pulled back as precious metals markets moved higher. USD/JPY climbed towards the 159.00 level amid rising Treasury yields.
U.S. Dollar Rebounds As Oil Markets Rally
DXY 100826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains some ground as traders focus on the strong rally in the oil markets. Oil prices are up by +5% as U.S. and Iran did not reach any deal over the weekend. President Trump signaled that he would use economic pressure to force Iran back to negotiations.
High oil prices may push inflation towards higher levels and force the Fed to raise rates at the next meeting in September, which will be bullish for the American currency.
The nearest resistance level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 99.85 – 100.00 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 100.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range.
EUR/USD Moves Away From Multi-Week Highs EUR/USD 100826 4h Chart EUR/USD moved lower as traders took some profits off the table near multi-week highs. There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released in the EU today, so traders will stay focused on general market sentiment.
The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1510 – 1.1525 range. If EUR/USD declines below the 1.1510 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.1435 – 1.1450. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
GBP/USD Tests New Highs GBP/USD 100826 4h Chart GBP/USD climbed above the 1.3500 level as traders ignored rising oil prices and bet on dovish Fed.
In case GBP/USD stays above 1.3500, it will head towards the nearest resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565. A move above the 1.3565 level will push GBP/USD towards the 1.3650 level.
On the support side, a move below the support at 1.3465 – 1.3480 will open the way to the test of the 50 MA at 1.3444. If GBP/USD manages to settle below the 50 MA, it will head towards the next support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350.
USD/CAD Attempts To Settle Below The Support At 1.3920 – 1.3935
USD/CAD 100826 4h Chart USD/CAD pulls back as traders focus on rising precious metals markets. Gold climbed above the $4350 level, while silver settled above $65.00. Other commodity-related currencies are mostly flat in today’s trading session.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support at 1.3920 – 1.3935. If USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.3920 level, it will head towards the next support level, which is located in the 1.3825 – 1.3840 range.
USD/JPY Moves Higher As Treasury Yields Rise USD/JPY 100826 4h Chart USD/JPY gains ground as the yen continues to lose ground after interventions. Rising Treasury yields provide additional support to USD/JPY. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.23% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.70%.
At this point, forex traders are not worried that BoJ would intervene again to support the yen. Fundamentally, the yen remains weak due to the difference in interest rates in U.S. and Japan.
If USD/JPY settles above the 50 MA at 158.84, it will head towards the resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00. A move above the 160.00 level will push USD/JPY towards the 162.00 level.
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD – Short-Term Forecast for 10/8/2026Markets Continue to Watch the Middle East and MoreUS Dollar Price Forecast: Jobs Data Weaken DXY – Will CPI Lift EUR/USD and GBP/USD?About the Author
Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
USD/CAD trades on the back foot on Monday even as the US Dollar (USD) regains some ground after weakening last week following softer-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3932, near its lowest level in two months.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) draws support from stronger-than-expected domestic labour data and rising Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $80.37 per barrel, up 5.20% on the day.
USD/CAD dip below 1.40 puts focus on US CPI and Fed pricingAccording to TD Securities, the latest payrolls data “broke USD/CAD below 1.40,” as the sharp reaction to the contrasting US and Canadian labour market outcomes underscored that “the market remains focused on both central-bank divergence and Canada's domestic outlook.” On the Canadian side, the bank notes that “recent developments in the Canadian economy have evolved broadly in line with our forecasts,” and that while the data surprise is “briefly pushing USD/CAD below the 1.40 support level,” they “think the bearish USD momentum may not sustain unless US CPI also surprises lower to allow market to price out near-term Fed rate hiking odds.”
From a technical perspective, USD/CAD has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows since briefly rising above 1.4200 in late June. The pair holds below the 1.4000 psychological mark and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.4075, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside.
Momentum indicators also favour sellers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 33, approaching oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays in negative territory.
On the downside, the 100-day SMA near 1.3916 offers initial support, followed by the 200-day SMA around 1.3853. A decisive break below the latter could open the door to a deeper decline.
On the topside, the 1.4000 psychological mark acts as immediate resistance, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.4075. A recovery above this moving average would ease the bearish pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.10%-0.24%0.72%-0.06%0.05%0.10%0.20%EUR-0.10%-0.33%0.61%-0.17%-0.04%-0.00%0.10%GBP0.24%0.33%0.97%0.17%0.31%0.33%0.44%JPY-0.72%-0.61%-0.97%-0.80%-0.69%-0.68%-0.52%CAD0.06%0.17%-0.17%0.80%0.06%0.18%0.25%AUD-0.05%0.04%-0.31%0.69%-0.06%0.02%0.15%NZD-0.10%0.00%-0.33%0.68%-0.18%-0.02%0.11%CHF-0.20%-0.10%-0.44%0.52%-0.25%-0.15%-0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
US Dollar, USD/JPY Talking Points: Markets are still showing a near 50/50 chance of a rate hike in September, with a near 80% probability of one by the end of the year. US CPI is expected to soften at Wednesday’s release and this will likely have a large toll on both rate expectations and USD trends.
The Friday NFP report was not good as the US showed a contraction in jobs, and initially, this jolted a move of weakness in USD/JPY. But, like I had said in the prior week, on the heels of the intervention-fueled sell-off in both USD and USD/JPY, support around 155.00 could be a more attractive concept as it was unlikely that intervention would hit there.
Since then, it’s been a steady clawing back from bulls even after the NFP-fueled dip. The carry remains positive on the long side of the pair and while there’s now theoretically-capped upside, given that dual intervention, pullbacks to support can still offer attractive risk-reward opportunities. And that will likely remain as the case until something compels longer-term bulls to close positions.
The math can change at the prior 164 high, and perhaps even at 160, but this week will be telling as we finally get a piece of pertinent US data that could compel long-term bulls to pare positions.
I looked into this last week and this bears resemblance to a situation that showed back in 2022. At the time, the Fed was in a hawkish stance following a slew of rate hikes that year. The Bank of Japan tried intervening at 145, and that failed as buyers simply loaded up and pushed up to the 150.00 handle. But it was at 151.95 when the BoJ intervened again and put bulls on their back foot, and in that instance, a slowing in US CPI helped to prod bulls to close positions and that led to a decisive two-month string of weakness.
At this point, the BoJ has placed their line in the sand, with an assist from the US Treasury Department. Pullbacks have so far brought out buyers, similar to how 145 did back in October and November of 2022. But in that prior episode it was below-expected US CPI that ultimately provoked the reversal, and that’s what is possible at this Wednesday’s release.
USD/JPY Daily Chart 2022-2023 Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY into CPI At this point we’ve seen sellers take their shot after last week’s below-expected NFP release but there’s still harboring probabilities for US rate hikes, which shows that the larger focus is on inflation. And given comments from Fed officials that makes sense. As we go into the Wednesday release bulls have control of short-term trends, but it’s that 160 area that looms large and, above that, the 164 level that has so far been defended.
At this point, it really seems as though larger USD flows and, in-turn, flows in other major currency pairs will drive on the basis of the long-term carry trade in USD/JPY.
USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview US Dollar The DXY basket put in a strong break of the 100-level following the intervention after the FOMC meeting, and at this point, it has a similar short-term bullish but longer-term bearish backdrop, with that prior support of 100.21-100.40 as a spot for lower-high resistance potential.
US Dollar Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD
In last week’s webinar I looked at EUR/USD with focus on 1.1500 as support and then 1.1576-1.1613 as resistance. Both areas have played a role as buyers have defended the big figure and the larger zone of prior resistance-turned-support has so far held the highs.
It does feel as though EUR/USD is still along for the ride, but at the least, there’s some important waypoints to track for directional plays in the pair.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview GBP/USD For USD-weakness, there could be perhaps a brighter argument in GBP/USD which similarly broke out of a falling wedge around the FOMC meeting. The challenge here, however, is the 1.3500 psychological level that is back in to hold the highs. Shorter-term, that horizontal resistance coupled with the higher-lows in the pair make for an ascending triangle, which gives bulls some degree of hope for topside continuation scenarios.
Since the webinar in the attached video, the pair has ventured above that price so this now becomes a spot for shorter-term higher-low support for bullish continuation setups.
GBP/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview AUD/USD After a decisive sell-off to finish Q2 AUD/USD has been recovering quickly and this sets the stage for the RBA meeting later tonight, with the wide-expectation that the bank will pose a hawkish hold.
This gives some context and if there is pullback, the .7000 handle remains a prime spot to look for pullbacks to work towards.
AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
EUR/USD treads water on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) steadies following its post-NFP weakness, while Oil prices rise amid uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1553, virtually unchanged on the day.
Price action has been confined to a narrow range for more than a week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) also attempting to stabilise above 99.50. The index, which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.70, up 0.10% on the day.
The sideways trading comes as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path and developments in the Middle East. Weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July prompted traders to scale back expectations for a Fed rate hike at the September meeting.
However, elevated Oil prices are raising concerns that inflation could stay above the Fed’s target for longer, preventing traders from fully ruling out a rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets still price in around a 44% chance of a September hike.
Attention now turns to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Wednesday. A softer-than-expected reading could further reduce the probability of a rate hike next month and weigh on the US Dollar.
Analysts at ING highlight that with the key July data now out of the way and August is “typically a quiet month for European Central Bank communication.” They note that the ECB has effectively given markets “a quasi-commitment to a September hike,” limiting the scope for fresh policy surprises from the Eurozone side in the near term.
Against that backdrop, ING argues that “that leaves EUR/USD firmly dominated by the USD side of the equation.” The bank stresses that “a softer US CPI print would increase the chances of a break above 1.160 already this week,” adding that “the next important resistance beyond that is the 200-day moving average at 1.1630.”
On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump says Washington is “semi-negotiating” with Tehran while “low-keying” its military campaign. Iran, however, denies holding direct talks and has tied the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to US concessions, including sanctions relief, compensation for war damage and security guarantees.
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Gold prices we have been contained for much of the session so far today after a sharp rebound last week, climbing almost 7.5% after spending several weeks moving sideways around the $4,000 level. The strength of the move has put the precious metal firmly back on traders’ radar, but the key issue now is whether this breakout can develop into a more sustained uptrend or whether it ultimately proves to be another sharp rally within a broader consolidation phase. For now, I remain sceptical and think the near-term gold outlook remains murky at best.
US labour market weakness weighs on the dollar Some of the sharp gains from last week were at least partially attributed to weakness in US data. The latest catalyst for the move came from Friday’s US employment figures, which provided another setback for the dollar. Payrolls fell by 20,000, but the deterioration was even more pronounced once previous months’ figures were revised lower. More than 100,000 jobs were removed from earlier estimates, bringing average employment growth over the past three months down to roughly 20,000.
Unsurprisingly, gold prices rallied as a weaker growth backdrop reduces the case for tighter monetary policy, while a softer dollar lowers the cost of the metal for non-dollar buyers. But the key question now is whether there is much momentum left in that move.
Inflation becomes the next major market test Before the 16 September FOMC meeting, we have another employment report in early next month, plus two inflation releases and the Jackson Hole symposium. The significance of these events for the gold outlook will ultimately come down to how they reshape expectations for Fed policy. If the data continue to point towards a cooling economy without a meaningful resurgence in inflation, markets could further reduce expectations for tighter policy. That would likely leave the dollar vulnerable and provide another supportive backdrop for gold.
But the opposite scenario remains a clear risk: A stronger inflation print or sequence of economic data releases could quickly force investors to rethink their assumptions around monetary policy, potentially triggering a rebound in yields and the dollar.
The first major test arrives on Wednesday with the release of July’s US CPI report. The figures could be particularly important given Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s focus on keeping inflation under control following previous policy missteps.
Economists are looking for headline CPI to rise 0.1% month-on-month, which would leave the annual rate at 3.4%. Core CPI is expected to increase by 0.2% on the month, keeping annual core inflation at 2.5%.
Higher oil prices keep the inflation risk alive A softer CPI reading would strengthen the argument for a more dovish Federal Reserve and could give gold another leg higher. However, there is still a meaningful inflation risk hanging over the market.
Oil prices have risen nearly 5% today and remain elevated, creating the potential for renewed pressure on consumer prices. A hotter-than-expected inflation report could therefore produce a rapid reversal in rate expectations. Treasury yields and the dollar have already rebounded and could extend their gains, while gold could give back part of last week’s gains.
Markets are currently pricing only around 11 basis points of rate hikes for the September meeting, leaving considerable scope for a hawkish repricing if the data surprise on the upside.
With no major US economic releases scheduled for today, some consolidation would not be surprising. The dollar could recover part of its recent losses ahead of Wednesday’s CPI report, potentially placing some near-term pressure on gold.
Gold now faces resistance after the breakout From a technical analysis point of view, the next major hurdle for gold sits around the $4,365-$4,425 region. The metal tested this area on Friday and was holding below this zone at the time of writing so far today. This area is particularly important because it brings together a previous swing low from February and an area that has shifted from support to resistance in the past.
Source: TradingView.com On the downside, initial support is now located around $4,300-$4,305. Below that, the $4,200 area becomes the next level to watch, followed by the $4,100-$4,120 region, which represents the base of last week’s breakout.
A sustained move above the $4,365-$4,425 resistance zone would strengthen the case that the latest rally is more than simply a short-term recovery. Conversely, if we start to see gold bleed lower from here, then that will raise the risks of gold giving back its recent gains once again.
Gold’s next move depends on US data The fundamental backdrop has clearly become more supportive for gold in recent days following the publication of some weaker than expected US data. The bigger question is whether that momentum can be sustained. After such a powerful weekly advance, a period of consolidation would be perfectly normal. What matters more is whether incoming US data – and oil prices – continue to reinforce expectations of easier monetary policy.
For now, the balance of risks has arguably shifted slightly in gold’s favour. But Wednesday’s CPI report could prove decisive. A soft inflation reading may give the bulls another reason to push higher, while a hotter print could expose the metal to a sharp pullback.
This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook.
Highlights of the week: RBA rate decision, US inflation and PPI, British GDPTuesday
Reserve Bank of Australia’s Interest Rate Decision: Scheduled for release at 04:30 AM GMT, consensus forecasts indicate that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 4.35%. Conversely, an unexpected rate reduction by the Reserve Bank could induce short-term depreciation of the Australian Dollar.Wednesday
United States Inflation Rate: Anticipated at 12:30 PM GMT, projections suggest a deceleration to 3.4% from the preceding 3.5%, alongside an expected 0.1% decline in core inflation for July. Given that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike are consistently deferred, inflation data remains paramount. A higher-than-anticipated reading would likely reinforce rate hike expectations, whereas a lower figure could diminish the probability of an imminent rate increase by the Federal Reserve.Thursday
British GDP Growth: To be published at 06:00 AM GMT, market consensus points toward a month-over-month decrease from 0.1% to -0.1%. While this June data may not significantly impact the Sterling, it will offer insights into the broader economic performance of the United Kingdom.United States Producer Price Index (PPI): Scheduled for 12:30 PM GMT, market participants forecast a reading of 0.1%, up from the previous -0.3%. Confirmation of this figure could signal upward pressure on inflation in subsequent months, as elevated producer costs typically transmit to consumers.USOIL, daily
Oil prices extended gains as uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz kept geopolitical risks elevated. West Texas Intermediate traded near $78 a barrel after gaining more than 5% over three sessions. Iran said a deal with Oman to establish a shipping route through Hormuz was close, but warned that the waterway would not reopen immediately. Meanwhile, renewed attacks on a tanker and Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery added to supply concerns. With around a fifth of global oil and gas supplies normally passing through Hormuz, continued disruption could keep upward pressure on oil prices.
From a technical perspective, crude oil remains under pressure, with price trading below the 100-day SMA, keeping the broader trend bearish. However, price has stabilised around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $76.60 after bouncing from the 78.6% level near $72.76, while the Stochastic oscillator is turning higher from oversold territory, suggesting that short-term momentum is improving. The Bollinger Bands remain relatively wide, indicating elevated volatility, although the recent price action points to consolidation. A sustained break above $79.30 could open the way toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $82, while a move below $76.60 would expose the $72.76 support area. Overall, the broader outlook remains bearish, but the oversold conditions leave room for a short-term recovery.
Gold-Dollar, daily
Gold held above $4,300 an ounce after surging more than 7% last week, supported by weaker-than-expected US jobs data that reduced expectations of near-term interest-rate hikes. The softer data also weakened the dollar, further supporting gold. Investors now await US inflation data for further clues on the Fed’s rate path. Gold is also benefiting from strong buying, with hedge funds increasing bullish positions, Chinese gold ETFs seeing continued inflows and China’s central bank extending its gold-buying streak. Geopolitical tensions remain an additional support for the metal, while markets now focus on upcoming US inflation and PPI data for the next major catalyst.
From a technical point of view, gold has entered a stronger short-term bullish phase after breaking above the sideways channel boundary at $4,200 and reclaiming both the 50- and 100-day SMAs. Price is now trading around $4,355, slightly above the 100-day SMA near $4,342, a key technical development. However, the Stochastic oscillator is deeply overbought, suggesting the recent rally may be stretched and vulnerable to a short-term pullback. Price is also pressing against the upper Bollinger Band, reinforcing the possibility of consolidation. If the breakout holds, the next key upside target is around $4,400, with $4,200 as the first major support. Overall, the short-term outlook has turned bullish, although the overbought conditions increase the risk of a temporary correction.
Interest Rates and Currency Influences Regardless, one thing that I’ll be watching is the interest rate market and seeing where rates go. They are kind of steady, and that at least gives some cover for silver to rise because rising rates, historically speaking, have been very negative for silver markets in general.
So, part of that is possibly due to the fact that silver’s non-yielding. It’s also the U.S. dollar strengthening. Silver is priced in U.S. dollars, after all, but it’s not a 100% correlation, so it’s just one of the factors here. As things stand right now, it looks like the buyers have been in control for 4 or 5 days for the most part. They are trying to make their presence known early on Monday.
EURUSD probed again through strong barriers at 1.1560/66 (100DMA / daily cloud top) on Monday, following Friday’s false break higher, but continues to face headwinds at this zone.
The single currency benefited from weak NFP data that further deflated dollar on Friday, pressured by fading expectations for Fed rate hike in September, but so far lacks strength for final break.
Near-term structure remains firm as bullishly aligned daily studies continue to underpin the action, with extended consolidation (1.1515/1.1560) likely to precede fresh push higher.
Markets await release of US July CPI data (Wednesday) to add fresh details in near-term policy outlook, with Euro expected to benefit from weaker inflation.
Sustained break of 100DMA / cloud top to generate fresh bullish signal for attack at nearby Fibo barrier at 1.1586 (50% retracement of 1.1849/1.1324) which guards next target at 1.1626 (200DMA).
Extended dips should be ideally contained above broken Fibo 38.2% resistance (1.1524) to keep bulls in play.
Caution on break of 1.1500 support zone (broken bull-channel upper boundary / round-figure) that would signal deeper pullback.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Federal Reserve Outlook and Economic Data Rates are relatively flat. They are a little higher during the day, so that might have something to do with it. But that being said, rates are stubborn, and it seems at this point in time, the next 30 days could be very important as we try to determine what happens at the next Federal Reserve meeting in September.
There will be a lot of questions paid attention to when it comes to inflation, CPI, PPI numbers for example, and then, of course, the employment numbers will be more likely than not very big this time around. We’ll just have to wait and see because the Federal Reserve has not exactly come out and said that they’re looking to be dovish, so it’s a question of will they have to change their tune.
That has a major influence on gold. And then, of course, we have the entire problem in the Middle East that seemingly isn’t going anywhere, although it doesn’t seem to be getting worse, so I suppose that’s something. Gold quiet on Monday, but has been bullish for several days now.
EURUSD probed again through strong barriers at 1.1560/66 (100DMA/daily cloud top) on Monday, following Friday’s false break higher, but continues to face headwinds at this zone.
The single currency benefited from weak NFP data that further deflated dollar on Friday, pressured by fading expectations for Fed rate hike in September, but so far lacks strength for final break.
Near-term structure remains firm as bullishly aligned daily studies continue to underpin the action, with extended consolidation (1.1515/1.1560) likely to precede fresh push higher.
Markets await release of US July CPI data (Wednesday) to add fresh details in near-term policy outlook, with Euro expected to benefit from weaker inflation.
Sustained break of 100DMA/cloud top to generate fresh bullish signal for attack at nearby Fibo barrier at 1.1586 (50% retracement of 1.1849/1.1324) which guards next target at 1.1626 (200DMA).
Extended dips should be ideally contained above broken Fibo 38.2% resistance (1.1524) to keep bulls in play.
Caution on break of 1.1500 support zone (broken bull-channel upper boundary/round-figure) that would signal deeper pullback.
USD/CAD stabilizes at 1.3948 near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 1.3985, with 1.3950 as support and 1.4000 above. Source: TradingView The U.S. dollar is rising a bit against the Canadian dollar after forming a bit of a double bottom. This is a market that has been rounding from a huge move to the upside. We are currently at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by the 50% retracement level, trying to find some type of floor. Ultimately, this is a market that is an interest rate differential play as well. There are some traders out there that are off to the races when it comes to the idea of the U.S. employment situation dropping, but one errant report really doesn’t make a trend.
Furthermore, unfortunately, the Canadian jobs numbers, although really hot this month, are notorious for being horribly wrong and corrected the next time. So, we can’t read too much into one report, and I think we’re starting to see people question that. The interest rate differential pays traders to hold the U.S. dollar versus the Canadian dollar. I think eventually that comes back into play, especially with a 55% chance of the Federal Reserve raising rates in September.
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that with key Eurozone data behind and European Central Bank (ECB) communication subdued, EUR/USD is now driven mainly by the United States (US) side. A softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) could trigger a break above 1.1600, with the 200-day moving average at 1.1630 as the next resistance, while short-term rate differentials remain the dominant driver.
US side dominates Euro dynamics"The euro is entering a particularly quiet stretch for domestic drivers. The key July data releases are behind us, while August is typically a quiet month for European Central Bank communication. In any case, the ECB has already given markets a quasi-commitment to a September hike."
"That leaves EUR/USD firmly dominated by the USD side of the equation. A softer US CPI print would increase the chances of a break above 1.1600 already this week. The next important resistance beyond that is the 200-day moving average at 1.1630."
"Our short-term fair value models are offering little direction at present, with EUR/USD broadly tracking moves in rates, equities and commodities. Short-term rate differentials have continued to grow as the main driver for EUR/USD, meaning sensitivity to the Fed story should remain very elevated."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
TD Securities’ commodity strategists report that Gold is holding gains after weaker US jobs data reduced perceived Fed hike risks, but CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) are unwinding length. They argue that with energy prices rising again, the stagflation narrative must strengthen for Gold to rally further, and note that prices need to exceed $4,400/oz for CTAs to re-add length.
CTAs trim exposure despite support"Precious metals hit pause. The yellow metal is holding gains after the weaker jobs numbers further questioned the probability of coming Fed hikes."
"However, with energy prices grinding higher again, the stagflation narrative will need to solidify to see gold follow suit."
"For now, Asian appetite from top SHFE traders and continued ETF inflows offer support."
"CTAs on the other hand have begun unwinding length, with prices needing to top $4,400/oz to add back the length."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Rabıobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent EUR/USD strength, noting it was mainly driven by a softer Dollar after weak United States (US) labour data reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations. Foley highlights resilient Eurozone data but also growth headwinds and limited appetite for strong Euro appreciation. Rabobank now expects EUR/USD to reach 1.16 in three months, assuming no major Eurozone growth surprises.
Euro gains on softer US outlook"At the end of last month EUR/USD lurched higher. On Friday, the currency pair traded at its highest levels since June 17. This may give the illusion of a buoyant EUR."
"The release of the surprisingly soft US July labour market report was the clear trigger for the move higher in EUR/USD on Friday. The softer data dealt a blow to expectations of Fed rate hikes which knocked US yields and the greenback lower."
"Indeed, it is RaboResearch’s view that the Fed will hold rates steady this year, which suggests scope for further softness in the USD."
"Given than another ECB rate hike is already in the price, a move is unlikely to provide much additional upside incentive for the EUR. We see scope for a modest upside bias in EUR/USD in the months ahead, mostly reflecting a reduction in Fed rate hike speculation and we have brought forward our forecast of a move to 1.16 from 6mths to 3mth."
"That said, in the absence of upside growth surprises in Q3, we are doubtful that the market will be keen to rebuild substantial EUR long positions in the coming months."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Following a steep risk-on rally across US equity indices and precious metals, several major markets are approaching critical technical levels as momentum becomes increasingly stretched:
Dow Jones: Extended its rally toward the 54,700 record high and the upper boundary of its rising channel dating back to 2022, while monthly momentum is flashing overbought conditions last seen in 2018. Dow Analysis Gold and silver: Broke above their year-long descending resistance structures and June-August consolidations, while daily momentum has entered overbought territory near critical resistance levels. US Dollar Index (DXY): Dropped toward the rising support near 99.30 that has defined its bullish 2026 trend. Fed expectations: September rate-hike expectations fell back below 50% following a weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report. However, markets remain cautious ahead of Wednesday's US CPI report and amid ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin: Remains subdued despite broader market optimism, trading within its extended June-August 2026 consolidation and below the key $68,000 resistance level. Whether Bitcoin is leading the next major risk-off move or simply lagging the broader market rally could become clearer as these key technical and macroeconomic catalysts unfold.
September Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Drop — For Now
Source: CME FedWatch Tool
Last week's weaker-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls report, at -23k, pushed expectations for a September Fed rate hike back below 50%, providing additional support for risk assets.
Attention now turns to Wednesday's CPI report. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading above 3.4% could revive rate-hike expectations and pressure stretched risk-on trends. Conversely, softer inflation could ease immediate tightening concerns, allowing any short-term correction to serve as a momentum reset rather than the beginning of a broader reversal.
Fear and Greed Index
Source: CNN
Despite slowing price momentum, overbought conditions on daily time frames, and persistent tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the Fear and Greed Index remains tilted toward risk appetite and continues to hold recent gains.
Key markets remain near elevated levels:
Dow Jones: Near 54,000 Gold: Near 4,370 S&P 500: Near 7,770 Despite these strong rallies, several intermarket signals suggest investors continue to price in geopolitical uncertainty:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains above its 2026 uptrend support near 99.30. WTI crude oil remains above $72 per barrel. Crude oil analysis Bitcoin continues to trade below $68,000 and within its June-August consolidation rather than confirming the broader risk-on move. Together, these signals suggest caution remains warranted unless the dollar and crude oil continue to weaken while Bitcoin begins to confirm improving risk appetite.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: 3-Day Time Frame — Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin continues to trace a technical structure similar to those previously seen across precious metals, particularly gold and silver, forming a contracting consolidation near its 2026 lows between June and August.
A breakout above the upper boundary of this consolidation and the $68,000 resistance level would confirm strengthening momentum and expose the first upside objective near $74,000-$77,000, followed by $84,000-$88,000.
The latter represents a major long-term resistance zone, aligning with the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025-2026 decline and serving as an important dividing line between the longer-term bullish and bearish outlooks.
Conversely, failure to break above $68,000 would leave Bitcoin vulnerable to another decline. A confirmed break below the $60,000-$58,000 support zone would expose the $49,000-$50,000 region, near the August 2025 lows, where another longer-term accumulation opportunity could emerge.
For now, Bitcoin's consolidation appears to represent a lagging accumulation phase awaiting broader confirmation that the recent improvement in global risk sentiment is becoming more sustainable.
Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame — Log Scale
Source: TradingView
From a daily time frame perspective, gold is confirming a bullish breakout above its June-August contracting consolidation, previously ranging between 3,930 and 4,200, as well as above the descending resistance that had guided price action since March 2026.
Key support: 4,050-3,960-3,930
Gold Bullish Scenario A sustained recovery above 4,370 and 4,470 would shift both the short- and longer-term outlooks further in favor of buyers. Such a move would strengthen the broader recovery case across precious metals and increase confidence that gold's longer-term uptrend has resumed.
However, the daily RSI continues to push deeper into overbought territory, reaching levels last seen in January 2026 when gold tested its 5,600 record high. This raises the risk of a short-term pullback or consolidation before another potential upside extension.
Gold Bearish Scenario On the downside, a break below 4,300 and 4,200 would expose the 4,140-4,160 region as another potential dip-buying zone.
Should this area fail to hold, gold could retest the broader 4,050-3,960-3,930 support zone. A sustained break below this region would reactivate the broader bearish scenario.
The next downside objectives would be:
3,880-3,840: Corresponding to the October 2025 lows. 3,700 3,500-3,460: A well-respected five-month resistance zone throughout 2025 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920-2026 advance. These longer-term support zones could provide significant reversal opportunities should a deeper correction develop.
As long as the US Dollar Index and crude oil remain firm, downside and volatility risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated.
Gold Price Outlook: 6-Month Time Frame — Log Scale
Source: TradingView
From a six-month perspective, gold is rebounding from one of its most significant long-term technical confluence zones in decades.
The area combines:
The 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1920 to 2026. The long-term trendline connecting major highs between 2016 and 2025. What previously acted as resistance has now become one of gold's most important long-term support areas in 2026. The completion of a six-month shooting-star reversal pattern. Given the significance of this support zone and the fragile US-Iran geopolitical backdrop, the longer-term structure remains particularly sensitive to a break below 3,930.
A sustained move below this technical confluence would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 3,500-3,460, an area that acted as major resistance throughout much of 2025.
With gold, Bitcoin, the US Dollar Index, and major equity indices simultaneously approaching critical technical levels, Wednesday's US CPI report could provide an important catalyst for determining whether stretched risk-on trends extend or enter a broader corrective phase.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
Friday’s US employment report was the first of four major pieces of economic data due before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The figures delivered a significant downside surprise, prompting markets to scale back expectations of a September rate hike to around 44%, from above 55% ahead of the release. Yet, the data hasn’t materially changed the USD/JPY forecast much. The pair has already recovered towards the levels seen before the payrolls release, trading close to 159.00. That leaves the pair once again within striking distance of the psychologically important 160.00 level. Unless upcoming US data deliver further negative surprises, or Japanese authorities step back into the market, USD/JPY could once again test that threshold.
The next major catalyst is US inflation, with CPI due later this week. At the same time, developments in oil markets remain important, particularly as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to complicate the inflation outlook.
Oil remains a key variable for the dollar outlook Crude oil prices continue to find support from the uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Although Donald Trump has indicated that Washington is “semi-negotiating” with Iran, the language suggests that economic pressure remains central to the strategy rather than an immediate move towards military escalation.
There have also been reports that Iran and Oman are edging towards an understanding over a shipping route through the Strait. However, any meaningful and sustained reopening of the waterway is likely to depend on wider progress in US-Iran negotiations.
A prolonged disruption to energy flows should keep inflationary pressures elevated. That could make it harder for the Fed to ease policy, even if we see further data weakness, potentially providing an underlying source of support for the greenback.
The Fed’s data-dependent approach puts CPI in the spotlight The latest market reaction reinforces just how important incoming economic data have become for the dollar. Rather than relying heavily on oil prices alone, markets are increasingly being forced to assess individual data release through the Fed’s evolving reaction function.
That shift follows Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s decision to move away from providing firm forward guidance. His recent messaging has left greater room for incoming data to reshape expectations around monetary policy.
There are still several important data points to come before the September 16 FOMC meeting: another payrolls report and two further CPI releases, including this week’s figures.
Inflation is particularly important because of Warsh’s admission that the Fed has consistently gotten it wrong and is looking to address it. As a result, any surprises in CPI or other inflation data like PPI could generate much larger moves in the dollar than we have seen from Friday’s jobs report alone.
This also helps explain why the weak payrolls figures did not trigger a sustained collapse in USD/JPY. Markets still have several opportunities to reassess the Fed outlook before September.
What is expected from CPI data? US CPI is now arguably the most important event on this week’s calendar. The previous CPI report had certainly surprised to the downside. Headline inflation slowed more sharply than expected to 3.5% from 4.2%, while core CPI eased to 2.6%. This time, economists expect moderate weakness. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.1% month-on-month, taking the annual rate to 3.4%. Core CPI is forecast to increase 0.2% on the month, leaving annual core inflation at 2.5%.
The question now is whether we will see that moderation, and if so, whether it is enough to trigger further dovish repricing in US dollar. But as mentioned, alongside data it is also the developments in oil prices which will determine whether expectations for a tighter Fed are rebuilt or continue to unwind.
Why the yen is struggling to capitalise on softer US data In theory, the yen should be among the clearest beneficiaries of weaker US economic data because USD/JPY remains highly sensitive to the interest-rate differential between the two economies.
Yet the yen continues to face selling pressure, even following intervention episodes. The USD/JPY sold of sharply in late July as both the US and Japanese authorities jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the yen. Such coordinated action is unusual and suggests that the US Treasury may be taking a more active role in attempts to stabilise the currency.
However, intervention alone is unlikely to deliver a durable change in the direction of USD/JPY. Foreign exchange intervention can disrupt positioning, reduce excessive volatility and alter market psychology. What it generally cannot do is permanently overturn a powerful macroeconomic trend.
Even growing expectations of a September Bank of Japan rate increase have so far struggled to generate a sustained reversal in the pair.
This is partly because the interest-rate gap with the US remains wide enough to keep carry-trade demand for the dollar alive.
Softer US data may improve the fundamental case for a stronger yen, but positioning and yield differentials can continue to work in the opposite direction – especially if oil prices remain elevated for longer.
USD/JPY forecast: 160 remains firmly on the radar Technically and fundamentally, USD/JPY remains caught between competing forces. The pair has already recovered to above 158.50, effectively returning to the area where it traded before Friday’s payrolls shock.
That recovery suggests the market has not yet fully embraced a sustained dovish repricing of the Federal Reserve. With the USD/JPY now also back above the 200-day average, the near-term path of least resistance is no longer to the downside.
Source: TradingView.com The path ahead is therefore likely to remain volatile. A return towards 160.00 remains a realistic possibility, particularly if US inflation proves sticky or oil prices remain elevated. 160.50 is the next obvious resistance followed by 162.00.
Meanwhile, if support around 158.00 area gives way and price moves below the 200-day again, then in the case, a return to 157.00 and possibly 156.00 will become likely. For that to happen, you’d feel US CPI will have to be quite weak this week.
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to extend its gains on Monday following last week’s strong breakout as traders assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook amid risks on both sides of its dual mandate. The United States (US) labour market is showing signs of weakness, while inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $64, with the $65 psychological mark acting as a firm ceiling.
The white metal climbed to its highest level since June 23 last week after weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data prompted traders to scale back expectations for a September Fed rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike now stands below 50%.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz keeps energy-driven inflation risks in focus, even as Iran and Oman say they are close to finalising an agreement.
Traders now await Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could provide the next major catalyst and determine whether Silver breaks above $65 or loses momentum. A softer-than-expected reading could further reduce Fed rate hike bets and support the non-yielding metal. Conversely, hotter inflation could revive expectations for a rate increase.
Technical analysis
XAG/USD is in recovery mode after forming a double-bottom pattern near the $55 region and reclaiming the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The latest leg higher pushed Silver toward $65, a level that previously acted as support but has now turned into resistance, capping immediate upside attempts.
Momentum indicators support the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart holds around 61, while the positive and expanding Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggests the recovery is gaining strength. A decisive daily close above $65 would expose the 100-day SMA near $69, with the $75 level emerging as the next major hurdle.
On the downside, the 50-day SMA near $62 offers initial support, followed by the 21-day SMA around $59. A break below the latter would weaken the recovery and bring the $55 double-bottom region back into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Weekly Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is edging lower early Monday after posting a strong rally last week. The market is currently testing the 52-week moving average at $4,349.82. Trader reaction to this indicator will likely set the tone for the week.
Last week’s rally was impressive and it may not have been a one-time event. A number of factors contributed to the rise, with the key being a solid support base across a long-term 50% level at $4,069.54. Additionally, it may have taken a while, but the base began building after a closing price reversal bottom at $3,942.10.
Traders will be watching the 52-week moving average this week because it can be both solid resistance or a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
If traders decide to sell into it, we could see a near-term pullback into the long-term 50% level at $4,069.54. Buyers could return on a pullback to this level, while defending against a breakdown under $3,942.10.
A breakout over the 52-week MA will indicate that the buying is getting stronger. The first target will be $4,481.78. This is an unusual target because it represents 20% down from the all-time high at $5,602.23. In other words, it’s the level that according to conventional analysis, turned the bull market into a bear market.
Overcoming $4,481.78 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the retracement zone at $4,772.17 to $4,968.06. This is 50% to 61.8% of the break from $5,602.23 to $3,942.10.
Longer-term traders should keep an eye on the 52-week moving average this week.
Weekly Forecast Last week’s rally ran on one trade. Payrolls contracted, hike odds dropped and gold repriced the rate path in five sessions. CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday decide whether that repricing holds or gets walked back.
A soft pair of inflation reports and gold has the momentum to clear the 52-week moving average at $4,349.82 and target the bear market threshold at $4,481.78. A hot CPI sends yields and the dollar higher and pulls the bid out from under a metal that just gained 7% on one data point.
Oil back above $79 is the complication. If crude keeps climbing on stalled Hormuz talks, inflation expectations rebuild and the Fed’s case for September gets harder to dismiss. Gold needs lower oil, lower yields and inflation data that cooperates. It got the first two last week. This week it finds out about the third.
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The Euro (EUR) trades slightly lower at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The EUR/USD pair edges down as the US Dollar holds onto its early recovery, which, according to market experts, lacks conviction, as traders have dialed down hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets after the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.
Fed hike case softens as US jobs data underwhelmAnalysts at Rabobank argue that Friday’s US employment report has further eroded the case for additional Fed tightening, noting that “the case for a Fed hike is weakening, but it is certainly not yet done for.” They highlight that the “headline payrolls number disappointed, with a -23,000 jobs print and a 37,000 downward revision to the June estimate,” underscoring a softer tone in the labour market. Rabobank adds that their US strategist had already observed that “employment growth has been slowing for several months,” and that the latest release “confirmed that downside risks to the labour market have not disappeared entirely since the three insurance cuts last year.” In their view, this evolving backdrop “could strengthen the argument of the Fed’s doves,” even if the policy debate remains open.
This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday.
On the Eurozone front, the Sentix Investor Confidence data, a key indicator of Investor morale, has come in surprisingly positive at 0.9 in August from -3.1 in July.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades around 1.1550, holding significantly above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1484 and slightly above the downward-sloping trend line around 1.1520, keeping the near-term bias bullish.
The Relative Strength Index (14) around 61 suggests constructive upside momentum, though still shy of overbought conditions, hinting that bulls retain control as long as spot remains anchored above the former trend-line cap.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the trend-line break area near 1.1520, with the 20-day EMA at 1.1484 providing a deeper cushion if a pullback extends. Looking up, the pair could extend the advance towards the June 5 high at 1.1644 if it manages to hold above the August 7 high at 1.1581.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Gold extended its rally as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added 640koz to reserves, marking 21 consecutive months of accumulation. Spot Gold moved above $4,320/oz, supported by ongoing central bank buying and stronger Chinese ETF demand. Speculative net long positions in COMEX gold and silver also increased to multi-month highs.
PBoC buying drives Gold strength"Gold extended its rally last week after the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 640koz (around 20 tonnes), the largest monthly addition since October 2023."
"Official reserves have now risen for 21 consecutive months as China continues to diversify reserves and strengthen its position in the global bullion market."
"Spot gold climbed above $4,320/oz on Friday, its highest level since mid-June, supported by ongoing central bank buying and stronger Chinese investment demand through gold-backed ETFs."
"Speculative sentiment remained supportive across metals."
"In precious metals, managed money increased net long positions in COMEX gold to the highest level since January, while net longs in COMEX silver rose for the first time in five weeks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Monday as buyers take a breather following last week’s sharp rally, with the broader market theme still centred on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate outlook and developments in the Middle East. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,333, little changed on the day.
The precious metal gained more than 7% last week and climbed to its highest level since June 17 on Friday. The advance was driven by a dovish repricing of Fed rate-hike expectations following weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Inflation concerns also eased as Iran and Oman reportedly moved closer to finalising an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Oil prices lower.
These developments weighed on the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields, although the downside has been limited as Oil prices remain well above pre-war levels, keeping energy-driven inflation concerns alive.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting to form a base near a two-month low, trading around 99.71, up 0.11% on the day. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield holds near 4.65%, below its recent peak of around 4.74%, the highest level since January 2025.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets price in around a 44% probability of a rate hike at the September meeting, down from 67% a week earlier.
Attention now turns to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, as traders look for fresh clues about the Fed’s interest-rate path, which could drive the next moves in the US Dollar and Gold.
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman argue that the balance of risks around the upcoming US inflation data is skewed against the US Dollar. They note that “a soft US CPI print would strengthen the case for a dovish repricing in Fed hike expectations and further undermine USD,” while “a hot US CPI print may deliver a knee-jerk USD bounce via higher front-end yields.”
However, BBH cautions that with “Fed policy already restrictive (assuming a neutral rate of 3.00%), the scope for a material hawkish repricing looks limited,” which they see as a lingering “USD headwind.”
On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump says Washington is “semi-negotiating” with Tehran while “low-keying” its military campaign. Iran, however, denies holding direct talks and has tied the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to US concessions, including sanctions relief, compensation for war damage and security guarantees.
XAU/USD maintains a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,150 while still trading below the 100-day SMA around $4,389. The price action suggests a developing recovery phase, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovering in the mid-60s to hint at firm but not yet overextended upside momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) in the high-20s suggests a moderately strengthening trend.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA around $4,389, with a subsequent barrier layered higher at the horizontal resistance zone near $4,500. On the downside, initial demand is seen at the 50-day SMA around $4,150, ahead of a more substantial horizontal support shelf near $4,000, where a break would undermine the current bullish tone and expose a deeper corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold holds gains around $4,350, with two-month highs at $4,380 under pressure.
Lower US yields amid signs of a loosening labour market are underpinning support for Gold.
Gold (XAU/USD) holds moderate gains at the mid-range of the $4,300s on Monday, consolidating gains after a nearly 7.5% rally last week. The precious metal hovers just below the last two-month highs in the $4,380 area, buoyed by lower US Treasury yields, as traders cut back Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes following the negative surprise of last Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
The US Dollar remains on its back foot this week, in the aftermath of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls release, which showed a 23K decline in net employment in July, undershooting expectations of an 80K increase, and sharp downside revisions of the previous two months' job gains. Futures markets have scaled back hopes of a September rate hike to 44% from 67% in the previous week, sending the US Dollar lower across the board.
XAU/USD trades at $4,343, maintaining its bullish near-term bias intact. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) has reached overbought levels, but downside attempts remain limited so far. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the same timeframe hints that upside momentum is still constructive.
Bulls are likely to find significant resistance at the $4,380 area (June 17 high). Further up, the target is the late-May high at $4,595. On the downside, initial support is seen at the previous range top, above $4,200, ahead of the $4,000 psychological area, which halted bears in late July, and the bottom of July's trading range, around $3,950.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
EUR/USD holds near 1.1555 as the euro retains much of its recent advance against the US Dollar. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence jumped to +0.9 in August from -3.1, returning to positive territory and adding to signs of improving sentiment across the bloc. Weak US payrolls remain a major drag on the Dollar, while 1.1600 is emerging as the key resistance level for EUR/USD. EUR/USD held above 1.1550 on Monday, extending the recovery that gathered pace following last week’s surprisingly weak US employment report. The pair was trading near 1.1555 at the time of writing, keeping it close to recent highs as investors reassessed the outlook for the Federal Reserve and the US Dollar.
The euro received an additional boost from fresh Eurozone data after the Sentix Investor Confidence Index beat expectations in August and returned to positive territory. The improvement gives EUR/USD another source of support beyond Dollar weakness and comes as traders assess whether the Eurozone economy is entering the second half of 2026 on firmer footing.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Beats Expectations Eurozone investor sentiment improved more sharply than expected in August, with the Sentix Investor Confidence Index rising to +0.9 from -3.1 in July. The return to positive territory represents a notable improvement in investor perceptions of the region’s economic outlook after sentiment remained below zero in the previous month.
For the euro, the timing of the improvement is particularly relevant. EUR/USD’s recent recovery has been driven largely by a repricing of US interest-rate expectations following disappointing American economic data. An improvement in Eurozone sentiment gives the single currency a domestic catalyst of its own and reduces the extent to which its recovery depends entirely on weakness in the Dollar.
The Sentix report is not normally as influential for EUR/USD as inflation figures or European Central Bank policy decisions, but the positive surprise adds to evidence that confidence in the Eurozone economy is stabilizing. If upcoming European indicators reinforce that picture, expectations for a widening economic-performance gap between the US and Eurozone could continue to ease.
Weak US Jobs Report Keeps EUR/USD Buyers in Control The main catalyst behind the latest EUR/USD rally remains the sharp deterioration in the headline US employment figures. US Nonfarm Payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, delivering a much weaker result than markets had anticipated. Government employment accounted for a significant part of the decline, while private-sector employment remained positive, preventing the report from pointing to an outright collapse in hiring.
The unemployment rate also complicated the picture by unexpectedly falling to 4.1% from 4.2%. However, the decline was accompanied by weaker labor-force participation, limiting how positively markets could interpret the lower jobless rate.
For currency traders, the broader implication is that the Federal Reserve now faces greater uncertainty over how long restrictive monetary policy can be maintained if labor-market conditions continue to deteriorate. Expectations for further tightening have consequently softened, removing an important source of support for the US Dollar. That repricing has helped EUR/USD recover strongly from the 1.1350 region, with buyers pushing the pair back through 1.1500 and toward the 1.1600 psychological barrier.
US Inflation Data Could Decide the Dollar’s Next Move The next phase of the EUR/USD price forecast will depend heavily on whether upcoming US economic data confirms the softer picture presented by the July jobs report.
Inflation will be particularly important. Weak employment combined with easing price pressures would strengthen the argument against additional Federal Reserve tightening and could place renewed downward pressure on the Dollar. Such a combination would also give EUR/USD buyers a stronger fundamental case for challenging 1.1600 and potentially extending the recovery.
The alternative scenario is more complicated. If US inflation remains stubbornly elevated, the Fed could have less room to respond to weaker employment conditions. That would leave markets balancing deteriorating growth indicators against persistent inflation, potentially restoring some support for US Treasury yields and the Dollar. EUR/USD therefore enters the new week with momentum on its side, but the durability of the rally will increasingly depend on whether upcoming US releases validate the market’s more cautious Fed expectations.
EUR/USD Outlook The EUR/USD outlook remains cautiously bullish above 1.1500, supported by weaker US employment data, reduced expectations for additional Fed tightening and the unexpectedly strong Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence reading.
A sustained move above 1.1600 would strengthen the bullish case and could open the door toward 1.1650. However, failure to clear 1.1580-1.1600, combined with a break below 1.1500, would suggest the post-NFP recovery is losing strength and could bring 1.1465 back into focus. For now, buyers retain the advantage, but 1.1600 remains the level EUR/USD must break to turn the current recovery into a more convincing bullish extension.
Why is EUR/USD rising today?
EUR/USD is holding near 1.1550 as the US Dollar remains under pressure following weak US Nonfarm Payrolls data. The euro also received support after the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index rose to +0.9 in August from -3.1, beating expectations.
What is the EUR/USD forecast for this week?
The EUR/USD outlook remains cautiously bullish while the pair holds above 1.1500. A break above 1.1600 could strengthen momentum toward 1.1650, while a drop below 1.1500 could expose 1.1465.
Is EUR/USD bullish or bearish?
The short-term EUR/USD trend remains bullish, although momentum is beginning to moderate near 1.1580-1.1600 resistance. Holding above 1.1500 would preserve the current bullish structure.
