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Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 576.55 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 570.25 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,724.71 per tola from MYR 6,651.27 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

576.55

10 Grams

5,765.45

Tola

6,724.71

Troy Ounce

17,932.57

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 13,476.27 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,328.04 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold increased to INR 157,184.50 per tola from INR 155,455.60 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

13,476.27

10 Grams

134,762.70

Tola

157,184.50

Troy Ounce

419,159.50

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Dollar Index fell along with the decline in USDJPY on possible intervention from the Bank of Japan. This has led to a short rally in major currencies against the US Dollar. Euro could trade within 1.1550-1.1650 in the near term while Aussie could rise towards 0.73. EURINR has declined as expected and could test 109 in the near term before trying to rebound from there. The Indian Rupee strengthened in the offshore Market as RBI stated a $127mln FCNR deposits so far. This could translate to further Rupee strength in the very near term taking it to 94.50 or even 94 before reversing. The Chinese Yuan can strengthen towards 6.70 soon while 6.7250/7270 holds. USDJPY and EURJPY look bearish towards 158-156 and 184 respectively for the near term.

The US Treasury Yields have come down slightly. Supports are there to limit the downside. The bullish view is intact, and the yields can rise more. The German Yields have risen above their key resistance. Need to see if this break sustains. If it does, then more rise is on the cards. The 10Yr GoI has come off from its high of Wednesday. But the upside remains open for more rise while it sustains above the immediate support.

Dow remains vulnerable to 52500-52000 while below 53500. DAX can decline towards 25500. Nifty needs to sustain above 24000 for a rise towards 24200, while a break below 23800 could drag it towards 23600. Nikkei remains weak and can decline towards 62000. Shanghai is likely to remain range-bound between 3850-4000 while below 4000.

Crude prices continue to strengthen towards $100 (Brent) and $95 (WTI) respectively. Gold remains vulnerable to a decline towards $4200 unless it sustains above $4600. Silver has weakened sharply and can dip further towards $62-$60 before a recovery. Copper is likely to remain range-bound between $6.50-$6.80 for some time. Natural Gas is attempting to break above $3.00, with a sustained break opening the way towards $3.25-$3.50.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Gold is building on its recovery from four-week troughs below $4,300, with buying aiming to recapture the key near-term resistance at around $4,450 early Thursday.

Gold awaits Fedspeak, more US data for impetusGold buyers seem to be back in the game after the daily technical setup turned in their favor after flashing bearish signals earlier in the week.

This, combined with renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness, falling US Treasury bond yields and a better market mood, allows the USD-sensitive bright metal to extend its turnaround.

The Greenback sees fresh selling pressure as Asian traders hit their desks and react negatively to Wednesday’s weak ADP Employment Change report.

The ADP said on Wednesday that US private employment rose by 38,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised 46,000 in July, missing the forecast for 48,000 jobs growth.

Following the data release, markets slightly scaled back expectations for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September to about 62% from 66% seen pre-ADP, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed.

Additionally, the continued USD/JPY sell-off, amid speculation surrounding intervention by Japanese authorities, adds to the USD’s downside bias, bolstering Gold’s recovery.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) also appears to capitalize on the hawkish repricing of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy outlook, undermining the currency pair. A BoJ rate hike this month is nearly fully priced in by markets.

Against this backdrop, markets are looking past the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East as Oil prices stall their rally to six-week highs. Gold buyers are breathing a sigh of relief amid an upside consolidation in the black liquid.

That said, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data from the US could determine whether Gold will sustain its recovery or prepare for a fresh sell-off.

The headline NFP is expected to rebound by 58K in August following an unexpected decline of 23K in July. The Unemployment Rate is set to remain at 4.1% in the reported period.

In the meantime, Gold traders will take cues from the US ISM Services PMI data and speeches from Fed officials for fresh trading incentives.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,431.70. The metal holds a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $4,231.78 and $4,357.75, respectively, which suggest a constructive underlying trend. Price is now challenging the short-term 21-day SMA at $4,448.99, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 53 hints at steady, rather than stretched, upside momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the 21-day SMA near $4,448.99, followed by a more significant barrier at the 200-day SMA around $4,533.04. On the downside, immediate support is found near the latest pivot around $4,431.70, with further layers of demand at the 100-day SMA at $4,357.75 and the 50-day SMA near $4,231.78, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader uptrend on any deeper pullback.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold faces data-driven risks as Fed hawkishness meets CTA selling levelsAccording to TD Securities, “economic data becomes increasingly important for precious metals, with gold at risk of CTA selling” as markets head into Friday’s US Non-farm Payrolls report. The firm notes that “non-farm payrolls this Friday will be the next piece of data with keen interest for precious metals given the renewed hawkish tone from the Fed and the latest escalation in the energy market.”

TD Securities cautions that the “price reaction may be more prone to the downside on potential beats in the data,” with gold “nearing some CTA selling levels near $4,300/oz” and “pricing simulations suggesting a further downward trend toward $4200-$4100/oz would see positioning reduced back to near flat into next week.” However, the bank adds that, looking beyond the immediate data risk, “we do not anticipate material downside as the landscape for precious metals has improved amid a renewed dollar debasement theme, while Fed hikes remain far from certain.”

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

TL;DR: USD/JPY has tumbled from 160.38 through 158, not because of actual intervention but because fear of a repeat is shaping trader psychology near 160 — a fear reinforced by rapidly repricing BoJ tightening expectations, setting up an asymmetric test for Friday’s NFP.

Not Intervention, but July Changed the Risk Calculus USD/JPY has fallen sharply from 160.38 yesterday, and the selloff extends through 158 today. But latest move bears little resemblance to confirmed intervention seen at end of July. That operation drove pair almost vertically from 163.97 to 155.22, a drop of roughly 8.75 Yen, or more than 5%, as Japan intervened with US participation. By comparison, latest decline has been much smaller, more orderly and spread over hours rather than minutes.

There is therefore little in price action itself to suggest authorities have stepped back into market. But July intervention still matters because it changed how traders behave when USD/JPY approaches 160. With pair again testing familiar territory ahead of another US payroll report, market is facing a pre-NFP repeat in positioning psychology, even without a repeat of official action.

That leaves an important distinction: intervention is not driving USD/JPY lower directly, but fear of intervention is shaping risk-reward around 160. Traders carrying short-Yen positions now have recent evidence that official action can produce a sudden multi-Yen reversal. That makes position reduction more likely before authorities actually intervene.

Intervention Fear Explains Timing; BoJ Repricing Explains Durability Intervention anxiety alone would make latest move vulnerable to reversal. What gives Yen strength a more durable foundation is rapid repricing of BoJ tightening path.

Markets are no longer simply debating whether BoJ raises rates at September 17–18 meeting. OIS pricing points to roughly 96.5bp of cumulative tightening over the coming 12 months, close to four quarter-point hikes. September itself is priced at around an 84% probability, but more important development is how much additional tightening is being built beyond that meeting.

BoJ board member Hajime Takata reinforced that shift in his Wednesday speech in Sapporo. He described “2026 [as] a regime change” in monetary policy, argued rate hikes should become “nimble and data-dependent,” and said BoJ should not be “bound by particular intervals or ranges anticipated in the markets.”

That directly challenges old assumption of roughly semiannual tightening. If BoJ is moving from two carefully spaced hikes a year toward a genuinely data-dependent cycle, Yen becomes less attractive as a cheap and predictable funding currency.

Washington Is Reinforcing, Not Creating, the BoJ Story US pressure adds another layer. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly encouraged Japan to normalize policy, while reports following his G20 meetings with Japanese officials said he argued that Japan’s next step should be higher rates.

That matters because Washington and Tokyo increasingly appear aligned on the direction of adjustment: less Yen weakness and tighter Japanese monetary conditions. It also reduces market confidence that renewed USD/JPY gains well through 160 would be passively tolerated.

Still, BoJ tightening case should not be reduced to US pressure. Takata’s argument is domestic: Japan’s inflation regime has changed, price stability target is close to being achieved, and policy should increasingly guard against an inflation overshoot. Bessent amplifies that backdrop; he does not create it.

The distinction reinforces central thesis. Intervention fear explains why traders are nervous near 160. BoJ repricing explains why buying back Yen can continue even without intervention.

ActionForex’s Technical View on USD/JPY Technical picture has deteriorated quickly. USD/JPY’s decline from 160.38 has now extended through 157.99 support, confirming that the rebound from 155.22 has completed as a three-wave corrective move. Immediate focus is now on 61.8% retracement of 155.22 to 160.38 at 157.19.

Firm break of 157.19 will pave the way toward the 154.76–155.01 medium-term support zone, which includes the 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76. The recent 155.22 intervention low sits just above that area.

Momentum is already stretched. 4H RSI has dropped into deeply oversold territory around low-20s, while MACD has turned sharply lower. That creates room for a near-term bounce, but an oversold rebound would not repair technical damage by itself. On upside, 159.00 is first minor resistance. A break there would stabilize near-term picture and reopen 160. But that is where technical recovery runs into a much less measurable obstacle: intervention risk.

NFP Makes the Setup Asymmetric Friday’s US payroll report is therefore unusually important.

Current Fed pricing still favors another September hike, but softer ADP employment has reminded markets that labor data remain one of clearest ways to challenge hawkish path. A weak NFP would attack USD/JPY through US side of rate differential: Treasury yields could fall, Fed hike expectations could ease and the break of 157.99 could extend toward 157.19.

That creates a relatively clean downside sequence: 157.19 → 154.76–155.22 support zone

There is no equivalent policy barrier preventing Yen from strengthening through those levels.

A strong NFP creates a different setup. It would likely support US yields, and allow USD/JPY to recover through 159.00 toward 160. But a move materially above 160 must overcome two additional hurdles that did not exist in same form earlier this year: fresh intervention memory and a much more aggressive BoJ tightening path.

That does not make 160 an official ceiling. It does mean upside becomes progressively harder to price with conviction.

Strong Payrolls Need to Do More Than Save September This is where NFP asymmetry becomes clearest.

A merely solid jobs report may be enough to preserve September Fed hike expectations. But that may only produce another test of 160.

For USD/JPY to establish a more durable move higher, NFP probably needs to push markets toward a more aggressive Fed path beyond September, not just validate one hike already substantially priced. In other words, US rates would need to become more hawkish faster than Japanese rates are being repriced.

By contrast, a weak NFP does not face that higher threshold. It would simultaneously reduce US rate support, reinforce Fed-BoJ convergence and encourage more short-Yen covering.

That leaves USD/JPY with an asymmetric pre-NFP setup. Weak jobs have a relatively unobstructed route toward 155 levels. Strong jobs can drive a rebound, but a convincing break above 160 must overcome both intervention risk and a BoJ tightening cycle that markets increasingly expect to accelerate.

Key Takeaways USD/JPY’s fall from 160.38 toward 158 is far more orderly than July’s confirmed intervention, suggesting fear of a repeat, not actual official action, is driving the move. OIS pricing points to roughly 96.5bp of cumulative BoJ tightening over the next 12 months, with September priced at an 84% probability but more tightening expected beyond it. BoJ’s Takata described 2026 as a “regime change” toward nimble, data-dependent hikes, directly challenging the old assumption of roughly semiannual BoJ moves. A weak NFP has a relatively clear path toward the 154.76-155.22 support zone, while a strong NFP faces two extra hurdles above 160: intervention memory and accelerating BoJ tightening. 157.19 is the key near-term level; a break opens the 154.76-155.01 zone, while 159.00 is the first resistance on any oversold bounce.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

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AUD/USD

Sell AUD/USD. Higher odds of both RBA and Fed hikes push the market toward tighter USD policy and less room for AUD to rally; strong Aussie data is already “priced,” while the article flags elevated inflation and renewed oil/energy pressure that can keep both central banks hawkish. Technicals also point to a bearish reversal (rising wedge convergence, PPO bearish crossover, RSI rolling over). Target 0.700 support.

Key Risk: A sharp risk-off move that weakens the USD (or a surprise dovish Fed/RBA shift) that drives AUD/USD back above 0.7207.

Brent-linked AUD

Sell AUD exposure via AUD/JPY (or AUD futures). The news ties the hawkish rate repricing to higher oil after US-Iran activity; that supports global growth but also keeps inflation sticky, which tends to keep JPY relatively supported versus high-beta AUD when rates are uncertain. With AUD/USD set up to break lower, AUD/JPY should follow on the same rate-and-risk repricing.

Key Risk: Oil spikes further and triggers a broad commodity/risk rally that lifts AUD/JPY despite the wedge/oscillator bearish setup.

The Australian dollar held firm today, September 3rd, as investors adjusted their RBA and Federal Reserve expectations for the year. The AUD/USD pair was trading at 0.7165, a few points below the August high of 0.7207. 

Traders are bracing for interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) happening as soon as this month.

Polymarket gives the odds of RBA’s rate hike happening in September rose to 67%. These odds jumped after the US and Iran resumed their kinetic activity, which led to higher oil prices. 

Australia has also published strong macro numbers this week. An S&P Global report showed that the services PMI came in at 53.2 in August, higher than the expected 52.9. A PMI reading of 50 and above is usually a sign that a sector is growing. The composite PMI came in at 52.7, also higher than the expected 52.50.

Another report released on Wednesday showed that the Australian economy expanded by 2.1% in the second quarter, higher than the expected 1.8%. It grew by 0.4% in Q2 after growing by 0.3% in Q1 on a QoQ basis. 

This growth happened even as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) became the most hawkish central banks this year. It has already delivered three rate hikes this year, with officials leaving the door open for more hikes.

A key concern is that Australia’s inflation has remained at an elevated level in the past few months. This trend will likely continue now that the US and Iran have restarted their kinetic activity, leading to higher energy prices. Brent, the global benchmark, rose to $95.68, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $91.

The same situation is happening in the US, where odds that the Fed will hike rates this month have jumped to 55% on Polymarket. These odds soared after Kevin Warsh delivered a highly hawkish statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

In it, he hinted that the bank was concerned about the state of inflation, which has remained above the 2% target in the past five years.

Focus now shifts to the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report that will provide color on the labor market. Economists expect the data to show that the economy created over 80k jobs in August this year.

AUDUSD chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD pair may be on the verge of a bearish reversal in the coming days. For one, it has formed a rising wedge pattern whose two lines are about to converge. 

Also, the two lines of the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have made a bearish crossover, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing downwards.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the AUD/USD pair falls, potentially to the key support of 0.700.

USDJPY drops sharply in early US trading on Wednesday (down over 1%) after the pair hit the highest in almost five weeks (160.39) but bulls repeatedly failed to sustain gains above psychological 160 barrier.

The latest hawkish shift from BoJ officials in calling for quick action to support weakening yen in the situation of increasing inflationary risks, adds to growing expectations that the central bank may raise rates as early as this month.

On the other hand, today’s sharp rise of Japanese currency sparked speculation that Japanese authorities have intervened again after repeated attacks at 160 threshold (although the previous intervention started from the levels near 164).

The pair fell to 158.20 on today’s sharp fall (trendline support), with quick bounce above cracked significant support at 158.42 (Fibo 38.2% of 155.22/160.39 rally / 200DMA) suggesting that bears may have reached firmer ground (in case of daily close above 158.42).

The structure on daily chart weakened, as RSI slid below 50 zone and 14-d momentum entered negative territory, developing signal that the price may fall further (sustained break of 158.42 is required to signal bearish continuation) after limited upticks (should be capped under 159.17 (broken Fibo 23.6% / 20DMA).

Traders will continue to focus on comments from Japanese and US financial authorities for fresh signals.

Res: 159.17; 159.35; 159.59; 160.00
Sup: 158.42; 158.05; 157.81; 157.20

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds from a nearly one-month low to around $4,385 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges higher as the ‌US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields retreat from recent highs. All eyes will be on the US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is due later on Friday. 

US Treasury yields eased after a surge to multi-year highs in the previous session. Federal ‌Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams said that rising long-term bond yields are not driven by inflation fears but are instead a reflection of a solid economy.

"One of the reasons that gold has been able to move back above unchanged is we have seen a little tick down in yields for the day and that has allowed gold to bounce off some of the recent lows," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

However, rising tensions in the Middle East could raise energy-driven inflation concerns and boost the prospect of Fed rate hikes in the coming months. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.

Traders are now pricing in a 62.3% probability of an interest rate hike at the Fed's policy meeting this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The US launched new airstrikes on Iranian targets, prompting counter strikes by Tehran targeting US interests in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraq, and fuelling concerns about a wider renewal of hostilities.

US President Donald Trump said that the US had launched a wave of “large and powerful” strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for what he said was a “failed attempt” at laying mines along the vital trade route.

Gold slips as higher oil and Middle East tensions curb Fed easing hopesCommodities strategists at ING report that gold prices have "eased to a two-week low, slipping below $4,300/oz," as escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher and forced markets to "reassess the outlook for US interest rates." They caution that rising energy costs "could add to inflationary pressures and reduce the scope for near-term Federal Reserve easing," a backdrop that is seen "weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold."

Williams flags strong economy behind higher yields as inflation trend coolsFed's Williams delivered a mildly less hawkish tone, with a 6/10 FXS Speechtracker score only marginally above the historical average of 5.9/10, as the emphasis shifted toward a strong economy and contained inflation expectations rather than fresh inflation fears. By stressing that rising yields are driven by robust growth, strong investment demand, and geopolitical factors such as Middle East conflict and tariffs—while underscoring a trend toward lower inflation and stable labor markets—Williams framed current financial conditions as tight but not disorderly, keeping the focus on achieving 2% inflation as the primary mandate.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 1.42 points to 127.44, signaling a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness despite remaining firmly above the neutral 100 line. This configuration suggests that, even with a softer edge to the latest remarks, the broader Fed stance still resides in hawkish territory, consistent with elevated yields and a data-dependent path toward the 2% inflation goal as tracked by the FXS Speechtracker.

Technical Analysis: Gold retains a modest bullish tone above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping a constructive bullish bias despite consolidating below the Bollinger middle band. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 50, hinting at neutral short-term momentum that could tilt higher while price remains supported above the 100-day SMA.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band around $4,450, with the upper Bollinger band near $4,685 acting as a subsequent hurdle if buyers regain control. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day SMA at $4,360, ahead of the lower Bollinger band near $4,215, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract dip-buying interest as long as the broader bullish structure holds.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView First Ceiling, Then 200-Day Verdict If the session high at $4,398 is broken to the upside, Wednesday’s low becomes a key support level. Tuesday’s high of $4,464 can then be used as an initial upside target zone, since it is joined by a prior swing high at $4,450 and the 20-day moving average near $4,449. A downtrend line nearby adds to the cluster. Together, this confluence of potential resistance is the zone that must be recovered before gold can go higher. For now, Monday’s high of $4,472 can be used as a proxy for the top of the resistance zone.

How gold behaves from there will tell the next step. A decisive upside break above $4,472 would get gold back above the downtrend line and the 20-day moving average. Then it must contend with resistance near the 200-day moving average, currently at $4,533. The recent rally failed to hold above the 200-day moving average, which makes that area a more significant resistance zone and a bullish signal for the larger trend if it is reclaimed. The buyers who reversed Wednesday’s breakdown would then be testing the level that shows whether the larger uptrend is back in control.

Gold (XAU/USD) price rises over 1% on Wednesday as the Greenback softens amid speculation of an intervention to bolster the Japanese Yen (JPY), while US Treasury yields hold firm after weak US jobs data. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,373.

The Japanese Yen strengthened across the board, raising speculation that Japanese authorities may have intervened in the FX market or conducted a rate check. However, no official confirmation of either action was made.

XAU/USD climbs as softer Dollar offsets firm yields and Iran risksThe yellow metal remains bid as the US 10-year Treasury yield stays near Tuesday’s closing price of 4.79%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the American currency against six other currencies, is at 99.59, down 0.06%.

Recently, US President Donald Trump said that the US is “prepared to do another attack on Iran,” adding that the campaign “won’t continue for too long.“ Following the remarks, Oil prices resumed their uptrend, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up 0.10% at $90.86.

Despite this, US yields barely blinked as higher energy prices implied higher interest rates needed to tackle stubbornly sticky inflation in the US.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book was just released; in it, the US central bank stated that economic activity increased modestly since early July, while overall employment rose slightly. Regarding inflation, prices rose in eight districts.

US data showed that private-sector hiring in August was weaker than expected, at 38K, compared with the forecast of 47K and down from 46K in July, according to the ADP Employment Change National report.

New York Fed President John Williams said that US bond yields aren’t driven by inflation expectations but rather reflect a solid economy. Williams stated that inflation is not out of control and that current monetary policy is in the right place to achieve price stability toward the Fed’s 2% goal.

Ahead, the US economic docket will feature the release of jobs data, the ISM Services PMI for August, followed by the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold reclaims 100-day SMA, eyes on $4,400Gold price reclaimed $4,300, clearing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,361 at the time of writing. Despite this, which could open the door to further gains, short-term momentum remains bearish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below its 50-neutral level, indicating that sellers are in control, meaning that bullion’s path of least resistance is downwards.

For a bearish continuation, XAU/USD first support is $4,300. Once cleared, a move towards the 50-day SMA at $4,223 is on the cards. On further weakness, the $4,200 emerges as the next area of interest.

On the upside, if XAU/USD rallies past $4,400, this paves the way to challenge the $4,450 ahead of the $4,500 mark. A decisive breakout exposes the 200-day SMA at $4,531 ahead of $4,600.

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

XAU/USD Current Price: $4,368 A suspected Bank of Japan intervention on the Yen weighed on the US Dollar.The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged, but opened the door for “multiple” rate hikes.XAU/USD bounced from a fresh one-month low, risk still skewed to the downside.The XAU/USD pair trades around $4,360, up on Wednesday after bottoming at $4,282 during Asian trading hours. The US Dollar (USD) maintained its positive tone throughout the first half of the day, but changed course early in the American session, helped by two external factors.

On the one hand, a sharp Japanese Yen (JPY) appreciation put pressure on the USD. Market participants suspect that yet another intervention took place as the USD/JPY pair briefly traded above the 160.00 mark, although there is no official confirmation. Still, the pair shed roughly 200 pips in a matter of hours, usually the result of some action from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

On the other hand, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced its monetary policy decision, leaving the policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected. However, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) appreciated sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem's speech, in which he not only acknowledged the risks to the inflation outlook as a result of the Middle East conflict, but also said that multiple interest rate hikes should not be ruled out.

JPY and CAD strength weighed on the Greenback, while a bounce in stocks compounded the latter's near-term weakness.

The fundamental background, however, remains the same: Crude Oil prices remain near their recent highs following an escalation in the Middle East war. This, in turn, fuels concerns about mounting inflationary pressures across the globe.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook:In such a scenario, XAU/USD recent recovery does not erase prevalent downward pressure. The technical picture is bearish after the pair broke below $4,400.

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD trades beneath the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $4,399.10 and $4,479.23, respectively, while remaining only supported by the 200-period SMA down at $4,305.43. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator resumed its decline after correcting oversold conditions, while the Momentum indicator turned south below its midline, both reflecting sellers' dominance.

On the daily chart, XAU/USD struggles around its 100-day SMA at roughly $4,361, while still capped below the 20-day SMA near $4,448. The broader tone is neutral to slightly topside-capped, with the price sitting below the 200-day SMA around $4,531, and technical indicators stuck around their midlines.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-period SMA at $4,399.10, with a stronger barrier at the 100-period SMA near $4,479.23, where a sustained break would be needed to ease the current downside pressure. On the downside, the 200-period SMA at $4,305.43 is the immediate support ahead of the mentioned weekly low. Once below the latter, the $4,200 threshold comes in sight.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

A significant shift has begun to emerge around the strength of the Japanese yen in the short term. Over the last two trading sessions, USD/JPY has declined by nearly 1.00%, reflecting a notable recovery in the Japanese currency. For now, this selling pressure is primarily being driven by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan could accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes. As long as these expectations continue gaining traction in the market, it is possible that downside pressure on USD/JPY remains relevant during the coming sessions.

Is the Bank of Japan Turning More Aggressive?
Expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan have changed considerably in recent weeks. This shift has been largely driven by increasing expectations of a rate hike at the September meeting following recent comments from Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized that inflation is once again moving closer to the bank's 2.00% target.

In addition, several policymakers have suggested that not only could a rate hike be justified in September, but that further adjustments may also be necessary in the months ahead. As a result, markets are currently assigning more than an 80% probability to at least a 0.25% rate increase at the next meeting.

This development comes as a relative surprise because Japan still maintains one of the lowest interest rates among major central banks, currently around 1.00%. Until recently, the dominant view was that the Bank of Japan would remain focused on maintaining monetary stability. However, the latest narrative suggests the institution could become one of the more aggressive central banks over the coming months.

Over the longer term, this shift could also improve the relative attractiveness of yen-denominated assets compared with international alternatives, a dynamic that has been largely absent during the years of ultra-low interest rates in Japan.

This change is already being reflected in the Japanese bond market. 10-year government bond yields have shown a consistent recovery following recent comments and now trade above the 3.00% level, helping strengthen the appeal of yen-denominated investments.

However, it is important to note that this is occurring alongside rising U.S. Treasury yields, which have already climbed above 4.8%. As a result, while Japanese bonds are becoming more attractive, U.S. yields continue to provide a favorable differential for the dollar that could limit part of the yen's recent advance.

Source: TradingEconomics

It is also noteworthy that the yen's recovery is taking place despite the relative stability of the U.S. dollar. The DXY Index, which measures the dollar's performance against its major peers, continues to trade near the 100-point area without showing any meaningful loss of momentum.

This suggests that markets are placing significant importance on recent comments from the Bank of Japan and that, for now, expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy in Japan are having a greater impact than the stability currently observed in the dollar. Nevertheless, it remains important to consider that a stronger recovery in the U.S. currency could continue to limit part of the yen's recent gains.

Source: TradingEconomics

Taking all of this into account, it appears that the Bank of Japan's shift in tone has been enough to support a recovery in the Japanese currency over the short term. This dynamic could continue to favor downside pressure on USD/JPY as long as the dollar and U.S. bond yields do not accelerate their recovery more aggressively.

At the same time, it is important to recognize that a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve could once again increase the appeal of dollar-denominated assets. Under that scenario, part of the yen's recent strength could begin to moderate and the market could return to a more balanced phase around USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Lack of Direction Remains Relevant: After USD/JPY moved away from the major bullish trendline that dominated much of the price action over recent months, the market entered a more balanced phase. Despite the recent strengthening of the yen, a sufficiently strong directional structure has yet to emerge on the chart. Unless price manages to break through important technical levels, this lack of direction may continue to dominate and could even open the door to a more defined period of range-bound trading.

 
RSI: The RSI remains slightly below the neutral 50 level. However, this behavior does not yet indicate aggressive selling pressure. Instead, it continues to reflect a relatively balanced environment between buyers and sellers over the last fourteen sessions. This reading supports the possibility that a period of indecision remains relevant for price action.

 
MACD: A similar picture can be observed in the MACD, where the histogram continues to fluctuate around the neutral 0 line. This behavior reflects balance in the average strength of short-term moving averages and reinforces the possibility that a neutral market environment remains an important feature of the chart in the coming sessions.

 
Key Levels to Watch:

160.889 – Key Resistance: This level coincides with the most relevant 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the chart as well as the 50-period moving average. Price action that manages to establish itself above this area could favor the emergence of a stronger bullish bias and restore the relevance of the previous bullish structure that dominated months ago.

 
159.676 – Nearby Barrier: This level represents one of the main equilibrium zones on the chart and aligns with several important retracement areas from previous sessions. It could become the key reference to monitor should bullish corrective moves begin to emerge in the short term.

 
157.280 – Key Support: This area corresponds to recent lows and also aligns with the 200-period Simple Moving Average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the most relevant move on the chart. A sustained break below this level could reinforce a more dominant bearish bias and potentially pave the way for a broader downtrend over the coming weeks.

 
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

We saw a bit of recovery in the stock market since the US open, with the dollar easing lower on suspected BoJ intervention in the USD/JPY helping to calm the nerves. That in turn helped to provide some support for gold, too.

Gold defends its crucial 200-day EMA as traders weigh elevated US rates and Friday’s jobs report, which could trigger the next major price move.

Gold Technical Analysis

Daily price chart for Gold futures displaying support levels at 4,500.0 and 4,000.0 with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.788%. Source: TradingView The gold market found itself to be a little bit interesting during the session as we fell towards the 200-day EMA only to bounce. This is an area that technical traders will be watching, as it is such a big technical indicator.

This is going to be an interesting market to watch during the session as interest rates, of course, are elevated in America, and the jobs number coming out on Friday could have a major part to play as to where we go next. After all, traders will continue to question what the Fed may or may not do, and with that, it will have a major influence on gold. This is probably the whole story at the moment, and traders are trying to get a grip on what happens next through that prism.

Technical Outlook and Key Moving Averages Bouncing from the 200-day EMA is a strong sign from a technical analysis standpoint, so it has that going for it. A breakdown below the 200-day EMA would be a weak sign from a technical analysis standpoint. So, we’ll have to see how that plays out, but I’m watching this very closely.

Ultimately, we’re trying to decide whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to continue to tighten or if it’s going to be a situation where the Federal Reserve gets a little bit of cover from a weak jobs number. The next couple of days will potentially be somewhat neutral, but once we get the jobs report, this market could see a lot of volatility, depending on what the numbers look like.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Multi-Timeframe Analysis
The Canadian dollar has weakened as dollar CAD rebounded more than 1.5% off its monthly low into a pivot zone where three time frames converge. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through the weekly, daily and four hour structure in dollar CAD and maps the event risk sitting on top of it. The U.S. dollar has been catching a bid as rising prices fuel concerns about the inflationary outlook, even with markets pricing roughly two thirds odds of a Federal Reserve move on rates next month. The Bank of Canada rate decision and U.S. nonfarm payrolls land in the same week, and payrolls carries the most weight for Federal Reserve pricing after Jackson Hole.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

USD/CAD Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Pullback Nears Pivotal Uptrend Support
Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Recovery Reaches Downtrend Resistance
Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Breakout Extends to 10-Week Highs
British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Bulls Confront Resistance at Three-Month Highs
Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Faces a Defining Test
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Correction Pressures Pivotal Support
Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

Technical Outlook and Key Silver Levels The US dollar shrinking helps as well, so pay attention to that. But ultimately, we’re sitting right here at an area where you would expect to see a certain amount of support anyway, so it’s not a huge surprise. Whether or not we get momentum, that’s a completely different question.

But clearly, it looks like the selling has at least abated a bit for the short term, and this is the first step in trying to turn things around. Hesitation is a word I could use at the moment here.

Friday’s jobs number will loom large here. If we get an extraordinarily weak jobs number, traders may start to try to price in the idea that the Federal Reserve may not be able to tighten any further. And if that’s the case, things could get interesting here.

Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot gold is edging higher Wednesday after rebounding from an early session setback. The main trend changed to down earlier today when sellers took out the swing bottom at $4,311.04, but new buyers may have emerged on the test of a key retracement zone.

The long-term range is $3,942.10 to $4,697.11. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone is $4,319.60 to $4,230.51. Today’s rebound came from a trade to $4,282.62, which fell inside the zone. To some traders, this is a value zone.

Adding to concerns about heightened volatility is the fact that Spot gold is trading under 200-day moving average resistance at $4,530.71 and nearing 50-day moving average support at $4,222.93.

The early price action suggests trader reaction to the 50% level at $4,319.60 will determine the direction of the market into the close. A sustained move over this level could lead to a strong rally into the close, while failure to hold it would put the $4,230.51 to $4,222.93 support cluster back on the radar.

What to Watch The rate trade stays pointed against gold until the data changes it. Warsh and Barr both said this week the Fed has more work to do. The 10-year pulled back from 4.814% but is still near a multiyear high. The dollar index is at 99.67. Crude is above $90 WTI and near $95 Brent. The geopolitical bid from the Middle East conflict is going to the dollar, not the metal. Friday’s payrolls report at 56,000 expected is the number that can either keep the 68% September odds in place or force a repricing. The rate pressure holds until a soft jobs number gives buyers a reason to step back in.

Gold bounced from $4,282.62 inside the long-term retracement zone at $4,319.60 to $4,230.51. The main trend turned down Wednesday when sellers took out $4,311.04. The 200-day moving average at $4,530.71 is resistance above. The trade stays bearish while gold sits under $4,319.60. A close above that level is the first sign value buyers are taking over. A break through the 50-day at $4,222.93 opens the support cluster down to $3,942.10. The 200-day break from Friday is still the damage running this market. Wednesday’s bounce has not undone it.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

EUR/USD consolidates its daily losses during American trading hours on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm, supported by hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, weaker-than-expected United States (US) labour market data and a modest pullback in US Treasury yields limit the Greenback’s advance. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1580, down -0.11% on the day.

The ADP Employment Change showed that US private-sector payrolls increased by 38K in August, below market expectations of 47K and the upwardly revised July increase of 46K. The figures point to slowing hiring ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

US Treasury yields ease across the curve on Wednesday but remain close to recent highs. The benchmark 10-year yield trades around 4.78% after briefly touching 4.81%, its highest level since October 2023. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.74 after reaching a two-week high near 99.87.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Wednesday that “yields are rising on a strong economy and strong outlook,” adding that they “don’t seem to be driven by the inflation outlook.” Williams noted that “there is a correlation between bond yields and the Middle East conflict.”

The broader outlook continues to favour the Greenback as traders increase bets that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as September, particularly after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a tougher stance on inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting stands at around 70%, up from 36% a week ago.

Escalating hostilities between the US and Iran are also supporting the Greenback while weighing on the Euro. The latest exchange of strikes has pushed Oil prices higher, fuelling inflation concerns and raising expectations that major central banks could keep monetary policy restrictive for longer.

Against this backdrop, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its September 9-10 meeting, marking its second increase this year. Preliminary Eurozone inflation data for August showed that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) accelerated to 3.3% YoY from 2.9% in July, strengthening the case for another rate hike. Looking ahead, the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) is due on Thursday, followed by Retail Sales data on Friday.

Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Read more.

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Wednesday, trading around $64.30 at the time of writing, up 0.32% on the day after recovering from earlier losses. The precious metal finds some support from weaker-than-expected United States (US) employment data, although elevated US Treasury yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy continue to limit its upside.

The latest labor-market figures provide some relief for Silver. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change report shows that the US private sector added 38K jobs in August, below market expectations of 47K and the previous increase of 46K. The softer reading adds to signs of cooling labor demand and could complicate the case for additional monetary tightening.

However, expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain broadly hawkish. Markets see a roughly 64% chance that the central bank will raise interest rates at its September 15-16 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, compared with 36% a week earlier.

Higher rate expectations have pushed US Treasury yields sharply higher, creating a significant headwind for Silver as a non-yielding asset. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield reached 4.81% on Wednesday, its highest level since 2023, before easing modestly.

At the same time, rising tensions in the Middle East have driven Oil prices higher, adding another layer of uncertainty to the inflation outlook. Persistent energy-driven price pressures could encourage the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance for longer, potentially keeping Treasury yields elevated and limiting demand for precious metals.

The US Dollar (USD) also remains supported by the prospect of higher interest rates, although disappointing employment figures prevent the Greenback from gaining stronger momentum.

Against this backdrop, Silver's rebound remains caught between weakening US labor-market signals and persistent expectations of tighter Fed policy. Investors will now turn their attention to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide further clues on the strength of the US labor market and reshape expectations for the Fed's September decision.

XAG/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.36, retaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $66.81 and the 200-hour SMA at $67.80. This configuration suggests the recent bounce is a correction within a broader downswing, with the cluster of moving averages above price reinforcing the cap on recovery attempts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.75 sits just below the neutral line, hinting at easing downside pressure but not yet signaling a decisive shift in momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at $66.70, ahead of the horizontal barrier at $67.50, while the 100-hour SMA at $66.81 and the 200-hour SMA at $67.80 stack additional supply if bulls attempt a stronger rebound; a sustained move above these levels would be needed to alleviate the current bearish bias and expose the higher resistance at $71.12. On the downside, initial support is seen at $63.32, with further cushions at $62.19 and $60.87, where buyers would likely look to slow or halt any renewed decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

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Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.

The gold price has fallen below $4,310, but UniCredit sees structural demand lifting bullion into a $4,400–$5,200 range by year-end. The gold price has dropped below $4,310 an ounce after a 48-hour decline of almost 3%, placing UniCredit’s upgraded forecast under immediate pressure.

Spot gold fell 2.74% on Tuesday and slipped another 0.43% to $4,309.40 by Wednesday morning.

The decline followed a surge in oil prices and global bond yields, with investors increasing their expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Image: XAU/USD 48h performance chart The chart shows a sustained retreat from $4,461.90, with gold briefly touching $4,284.34 before recovering part of the fall.

A Forecast Built on Fiscal Anxiety and Persistent Demand UniCredit said: “We remain constructive on gold and have raised our forecast range to USD 4,400-5,200/oz by end-2026.”

From the current price, a return to $4,400 would require a gain of just over 2%.

Reaching $5,200 would demand a much larger recovery of around 20.7%, while UniCredit also sees “meaningful upside potential” towards $5,000 within its forecast period.

The bank explained: “First, central banks continue to accumulate gold, providing a strong structural anchor for demand. Second, the steepening Treasury curve points to rising concerns about fiscal sustainability and long-term inflation risks, factors that have historically strengthened the appeal of gold. Third, ETF inflows have recovered, adding investment demand to an already supportive backdrop.”

That central-bank argument is supported by World Gold Council data, which recorded net official-sector purchases of 289 tonnes during the second quarter.

UniCredit’s upper forecast boundary is also close to RBC’s $5,250 average gold forecast for 2027.

Yield Shock Reverses the Gold Momentum The weakness since the forecast was published shows that gold has not fully escaped its traditional sensitivity to interest rates.

UniCredit noted that Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech had already changed the bond-market tone: “His speech led to a strong bear-flattening of the UST curve, with the 2Y yield rising by 10bp on the day.”

Oil-driven inflation concerns have since pushed yields higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and strengthening the US Dollar.

This does not remove the fiscal, ETF and central-bank support behind UniCredit’s forecast, but it could delay the expected advance.

US employment data, oil prices and Treasury yields will set the immediate direction.

A renewed fall below $4,284 would extend the correction, while a recovery through $4,400 would return gold to the bottom of UniCredit’s forecast range.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains on the defensive on Wednesday after tumbling nearly 2.7% the previous day. The resumption of hostilities in the Middle East after several quieter weeks is once again dominating market sentiment, driving Oil prices and global bond yields higher while strengthening the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,310 after hitting an intraday low of $4,282, its lowest level since August 7.

Bond yields have climbed to multi-year highs across major economies as rising Oil prices threaten to keep inflation elevated for longer. This could force central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy or even consider raising interest rates. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield advances for the sixth consecutive day and trades around 4.81%, its highest level since October 2023.

Rising yields and expectations of higher interest rates are weighing heavily on the non-yielding metal, outweighing the support Gold would normally receive from heightened inflation and geopolitical tensions given its traditional role as a hedge against both risks.

On the monetary policy front, traders have increased bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates as soon as September, particularly after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a tougher stance on inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting stands at around 70%, up from 36% a week ago.

Hawkish Fed expectations and escalating US-Iran tensions have also increased demand for the US Dollar, adding another headwind for the Dollar-denominated Gold. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.85, its highest level since August 14.

Against this backdrop, Gold is likely to retain a downside bias, although sellers could refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of US labour market data. The ADP Employment Change report is due later during American trading hours, followed by the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The figures could influence Fed interest-rate expectations and drive fresh moves in the US Dollar, Treasury yields and, in turn, Gold.

Technical analysis: Bears eye $4,200 as RSI slips below 50

XAU/USD holds below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at roughly $4,360 and the Bollinger Bands midline near $4,445, keeping the near-term bias tilted lower. Momentum gauges reinforce this capped tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovering just below the neutral 50 line at 45, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram sits in negative territory, signaling increasing bearish pressure.

On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the Bollinger Bands lower band at about $4,204, ahead of a more substantial horizontal floor at $4,000. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA near $4,360, followed by the Bollinger Bands midline around $4,446, with the upper band near $4,688 acting as a more distant cap.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/JPY consolidated near 160.25 on Wednesday, hovering close to its highest level since late July. Pressure on the yen has intensified amid a global bond sell-off, with the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rising to 3% for the first time since 1996 – increasing the cost of servicing Japan’s massive national debt and heightening concerns about fiscal sustainability.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s plans for large-scale investment add another layer of uncertainty. Markets fear that aggressive fiscal policy could further complicate the debt situation, limiting support for the yen even as expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike continue to rise.

Pressure on the BoJ is also increasing from the US. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent backed the idea of taking stronger steps to address yen weakness, effectively reinforcing expectations of a rate hike as early as September. However, even tighter BoJ policy has yet to change the broader picture. Borrowing costs in Japan remain significantly lower than in the US and other major economies, meaning the carry trade continues to weigh on the yen.

The dollar, in turn, is drawing support from safe-haven demand amid escalating US–Iran tensions, and growing expectations of a Fed rate hike driven by inflation risks from higher oil prices. This keeps the fundamental backdrop for USD/JPY moderately positive.

At the same time, ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, market participants may avoid making more aggressive bets on further gains.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the pair is undergoing a correction. A further pullback towards 158.97 is possible today, followed by a potential rebound from support and a return to the ascending channel. The first upside target is 160.27, followed by 160.67. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its histogram above zero but beginning to decline and the signal line potentially crossing above the histogram before turning downward.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is testing 159.65 as the correction develops. A test of 158.97, followed by a rebound, could open the way for a move higher, with the first target at the 160.27 resistance level. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal lines below 20.0. A break above 20.0 from below would signal the potential start of an upward move.

Conclusion USD/JPY is trading near its highest level since late July as the yen remains under pressure from a combination of factors: rising JGB yields, concerns about fiscal sustainability under Prime Minister Takaichi’s spending plans, and the persistent appeal of the carry trade. While markets are pricing in a potential BoJ rate hike as early as September, borrowing costs in Japan remain significantly below those in the US and other major economies, keeping the yen vulnerable. The dollar continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid US–Iran tensions and Fed rate hike expectations driven by inflation risks from higher oil prices. Technically, USD/JPY may see a near-term pullback towards 158.97 before resuming its move higher towards 160.27 and potentially 160.67, with Friday’s US jobs data likely to shape the next directional move.

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Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its bearish trend on Wednesday, as higher geopolitical tensions and growing bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in September boost speculative support to the US Dollar. The precious metal is testing the support area around $4,300 as of writing, 3.25% down on the week so far.

Bullion has been struggling since the US Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh boosted expectations of an interest rate hike in September at the Jackson Hole central banker’s summit on Friday. Warsh struck an unexpectedly hawkish tone, affirming that prices should be the central bank’s main concern right now and that they have “work to do” to bring interest rates to the 2% target.

Beyond that, the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran has increased risk aversion, providing additional support for the safe-haven USD. The US military launched a new wave of strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) positions across Iran, which were responded to with attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Iraq and Jordan.

Technical Analysis: Gold comes under growing bearish pressure

XAU/USD trades at $4,310, holding an immediate bearish tone below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), with momentum indicators showing growing negative traction. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken below the key 50 line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is deeply negative at -30.53, altogether hinting at solid downside momentum.

A clear break below the mentioned $4,300 area (August 14, 18 and 19 lows) would clear the path toward the August 6 low, near $ 4,225, ahead of the late July lows in the $4,000 area

On the topside, the previous support area around $4,450 (August 20 low) is likely to act as resistance now. Further up, the mentioned 200-day SMA, at the $4,530 area, will challenge bulls ahead of last week's highs, near $4,700.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.