Spot gold daily chart shows initial bullish reversal signal above lower swing high. Source: TradingView $4,357 Line in the Sand A new higher daily low of $4,357 is now key near-term support, since a drop below it may lead to a deeper pullback. However, an eventual recovery and continuation of the short-term bull trend still look likely after a period of consolidation or correction. Monday’s breakout above the lower swing high of $4,382 was confirmed when the session ended above that level, with a close at $4,389. That provided a trend reversal signal and helped establish the bullish momentum that carried into Tuesday’s advance.
Since bullish momentum began following a declining trendline breakout last Wednesday, gold had advanced by approximately 8.0% from last Wednesday’s low to Tuesday’s high. That is a relatively healthy move in a short period of time. Therefore, some degree of correction, either through consolidation or a pullback, could be healthy for the advance before gold is ready to proceed higher. A break below $4,357 would increase the likelihood of that deeper correction, while holding above support would keep the bullish structure intact.
$4,500 Above, $4,267 Below Nonetheless, the next upside target is marked by the 200-day moving average near $4,500. A decisive breakout above Tuesday’s high would signal a continuation of the short-term advance toward the next target, which is less than 2.0% above the high.
If $4,357 support breaks, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance is at $4,267 presents a possible minimum retracement target. It takes on added significance from its proximity to the long-term rising trendline and last Wednesday’s high of $4,268. Holding $4,357 would preserve the bullish setup and leave the door open for another test of $4,500, while a break below it would point to a deeper retracement toward $4,267.
The GBP/JPY continues its post-intervention recovery ahead of the US CPI report tomorrow, which could have a secondary impact on the pair. Current Setup The GBPJPY still retains the structural bullishness because of the interest rate differential that still exists between the British Pound and the yen. However, the overall risk-to-reward for this interest rate differential is no longer as one-sided as it was before the late July FX intervention by the Japanese financial authorities, followed by the Bank of Japan’s hawkish switch in monetary policy. However, the pair still retains its key macro divergence as the Bank of England still maintains its official bank rate at 3.75%, against the BoJ’s 1.0%.
The sudden switch to a more hawkish approach to monetary policy by Japanese authorities has triggered a round of strengthening in the last two weeks. Not only have Japanese financial authorities demonstrated a willingness to intervene in FX markets when required, but this has also been backed up by more hawkish messaging at last week’s BoJ monetary policy meeting.
The summary is clear. While the fundamentals of the carry trade continue to support a GBP/JPY uptrend, it is becoming riskier to keep chasing that trend at elevated price levels.
Macro Analysis of the GBP/JPY 1) The BoE-BoJ rate differential still favors the GBP
The rate differential remains the largest structural support for the GBP/JPY pair. Investors will therefore still choose to borrow the Yen (lower interest) and buy the Pound (earning higher interest); the so-called carry trade. As long as this differential remains, investors will remain incentivized to continue the carry trade.
The carry only collapses if the BoE reduces rates, or the BoJ fastens its tightening course. Otherwise, any interventions by the Japanese financial authorities will make it cheaper to get into the GBP/JPY uptrend, providing a dip-buying opportunity.
2) A More Hawkish BOJ is gaining market traction
Japan’s export-oriented economy depends on a weaker Yen relative to the other G10 currencies to make its products more attractive for other countries to import. But with the rise in oil prices due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, it has become simply too expensive to use a gradually weakening Yen to fund oil imports. Japan is 100% dependent on imports of crude oil/refining derivatives for its fossil-fuel needs. The Yen’s weakness was starting to become an untenable situation. The Japanese financial authorities are no longer just threatening to intervene (verbal action). They actually consulted US authorities and performed a coordinated action to buy Yen and sell the US Dollar.
The message is clear, and BoJ Governor Ueda also sounded this at the last monetary policy meeting: the BoJ was prepared to use all means at its disposal to resist disorderly depreciation of the Yen and respond to any inflationary pressures brought on by wage growth. Estimates put the cost of the latest intervention at about ¥8.45 trillion. As is the culture, there are no official figures from the BoJ or Japanese Finance Ministry to this effect.
This is important because such an intervention usually leads to the yen strengthening across the board. Despite the USD/JPY being the primary target of this move, the GBP/JPY suffered collateral damage.
USD/JPY ↓ → JPY strengthens → GBP/JPY ↓
3) Intervention risk at elevated levels is now a credible factor
This is a major change for the macro fundamentals of GBP/JPY. There is now a risk of abrupt reversals without warning if the uptrend takes prices above 210.00. Maybe even lower. Trying to chase an additional upside move at that price level, or even trying to pre-empt an intervention, can quickly lead to severe losses if the trader’s account cannot handle the volatility.
4) The BoE is not straightforwardly dovish
The Bank of England’s pathway to rate cuts remains unclear and non-committal. UK inflation for June cooled significantly to 2.6% YoY. This should ordinarily be an impetus for a rate cut, but growth and employment data surprised to the upside, which is a sign that the UK economy presently does not need the BoE’s help via a dovish action.
The next UK inflation and employment data on 17-18 August 2026 are deemed as a key driver of the GBP/JPY’s near-term trend.
5) Risk sentiment
The GBP/JPY is more risk-sensitive than many major FX crosses. The pair gains when the market is risk-on, and loses ground when the market is risk-off. The geopolitical space has made risk sentiment an active determinant of intraday and ultra-short-term direction.
GBP/JPY Technical Outlook The 4-hr chart shows that the price action has broken above the 214.62 resistance (2 July) en route to the 216.03 barrier and prior high of 1 July 2026. If the bulls push past this resistance, the 217.23 and 218.56 resistance levels come into the picture, with the latter being the 30 July high from where the BoJ intervention took place.
Fig 1: GBP/JPY 4-hr chart showing post-intervention recovery levels (snapshot: 11 August 2026) On the flip side, downside targets at 212.61 (24 June low) and 209.51 (2 August low and post-intervention trough) become available if the bulls fail to defend the 214.62 support mark.
USD, USD/JPY Talking Points: The long-term USD/JPY carry trade is still swinging USD trends across the FX market. At root of the USD/JPY trade are rate expectations and as high US CPI forced expectations higher over the past two months, USD/JPY bulls drove a rally that eventually brought out coordinated intervention. Over the past four years some of the largest moves in USD/JPY have been sparked by US CPI rather than interventions and that puts even more interest behind tomorrow’s release.
The Bank of Japan and the US Treasury Department took their swing at USD/JPY two weeks ago, but since then, bulls have been clawing back. This puts perhaps even more importance on tomorrow’s US CPI report as rates markets still widely-expect the US to lift rates later this year, with an approximate 80% probability priced-in for at least one 25 bp hike.
Even September is looking like a coin flip, and that’s largely owed to the spike in CPI seen earlier this summer on the back of the war in Iran. As oil prices rallied, inflation followed, and there’s been a growing chorus of Fed-speakers that sound as though they’re warming to the idea of tightening policy, looking to avoid a repeat of the disaster in 2021 that saw the FOMC dismiss inflation as ‘transitory’ until, eventually, they had no choice but to hike aggressively in 2022.
US CPI Prints Since Jan 2021
Chart prepared by James Stanley
Rates Markets Right now rates markets are highly expecting a rate hike from the Fed later this year, which would fly in the face of President Trump’s strategy in which he wanted to install a Fed Chair that would cut rates. So far, Warsh has sounded more hawkish than dovish but as I shared after the last FOMC meeting, it seems as though he’s doing that to keep markets from just expecting that he’s going to cut rates whenever he can. If they did think that Warsh was a dove, that could give upward momentum to US Treasury Yields, such as we’ve seen, and that could complicate the picture for the US Treasury Department that has a considerable amount of debt coming due over the next four months and then more over the next year.
This is likely why he keeps saying that the market will adjust rates based on the preponderance of data rather than waiting for the Fed to do so. Nonetheless, that expectation still leans towards wide expectations for the Fed to hike, and this comes with numerous market responses such as a stronger USD, a stronger USD/JPY, etc. And if we do see those rate hike odds price out, then, reasonably, there could be a shift in price action for those markets, as well.
At this stage hike in September is a veritable coin flip.
CME Fedwatch Odds for September Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from CME Fedwatch US CPI is Important for USD/JPY, Which is Important for the USD and FX Market Some of the largest moves in USD/JPY over the past four years have been fueled by a US CPI release.
In October of 2022, when the Fed was hiking aggressively to tame the ‘transitory’ inflation that turned out to be not so transitory, USD/JPY was in a near-parabolic like state. To the point where Japanese officials were beginning to worry about the possibility of hyperinflation. So, they tried to step in at 145 and that largely failed, as the intervention merely prodded a pullback that USD/JPY bulls bid, eventually driving price up to 150.00.
At that point, the BoJ was forced to act, after a high of 151.95 traded. They intervened on a Friday ahead of the weekend and, again, price retreated to support before buyers piled back in.
But this time, as price re-approached that 150.00 handle that was previously defended, bulls began to back away. They still held and even bought at support, but as bounced showed up they came in with lower-highs.
What ultimately drove a reversal was the US CPI print on the morning of November 10th, 2022. That was when markets got warm to the idea that perhaps the Fed was getting a handle on inflation, and maybe they would soon be able to stop hiking and, perhaps even eventually cut rates. US CPI was 7.1% at the time and core was at 6.3% so this was still a distant prospect – but the possibility of change was enough to convince longs to bail on positions given that the theoretical cap on upside at the time, at 150.00 made chasing prices higher a less attractive setup.
That market reversed by about 2,000 pips over the course of around two months, with bulls ultimately getting back in the driver seat in January. They, again, drove right back to the same 151.95 level. And, again, it was a below-expected US CPI print in November that shook the branch of the carry trade. This time, it was a mere 23.6% retracement of that prior rally with bulls getting control in December and going right back up to the same 151.95 spot.
In April of 2024, hope was beginning to fade on rate cuts and on April 10th, the morning of a US CPI print, above expected data dashed rate cut hopes – and this time, USD/JPY broke out as the stops above 151.95 provided rocket fuel for longs, and the pair made a firm run up to the next big figure at 160.00.
The Bank of Japan, again, intervened, and that brought about a week of weakness to USD/JPY but that same 151.95 level provided a launch pad for bulls to get back in the driver seat, with price trickling back-above 160.00 shortly after.
The next intervention, in July of 2024, saw the BoJ take a different approach. This time, they waited until the morning of a US CPI print and the combination of the two forces, with inflation coming in below expectations and markets finally getting the confirmation they needed that the Fed could probably cut rates that year, sparked a dizzying reversal – and not just in USD/JPY, as the high-flying AI trade came under fire, as well.
USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Why USD/JPY is So Sensitive to US CPI The carry trade is driven by rate differentials, and those are largely driven by inflation. With central banks tasked with monitoring inflation, drops that lead to lower rate expectations or even just fewer rate hikes could be enough to compel longs to close positions, such as we saw in November of 2022 or 2023, or again in July of 2024.
And because the USD/JPY trade is still up more than 50% from early 2021 levels, then logically there’s a large built-in position on the long side of the pair, which means selling in USD/JPY can lead to USD-weakness elsewhere, such as we saw with the EUR/USD rally in Q3 of 2024, or even the bullish move in EUR/USD two weeks ago.
--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret observe that the British Pound (GBP) is consolidating gains near the top of its one-month and multi-month ranges, with price action closely tied to fading downside risk reversals. Improved United Kingdom (UK) political risk perception and slightly more constructive yield spreads support GBP/USD, while technicals point to resistance around 1.3600–1.36s and support in the mid/lower 1.34s.
Sterling consolidates near recent highs"The pound is quiet, consolidating its recent gains toward the upper end of both its local (one month) and medium term (multi-month) range."
"Price action continues to be driven by sentiment as we note the GBP’s tight correlation to risk reversals, which continue to fade their premium for protection against downside movement."
"The recovery is important, reflecting an overall improvement in the market’s assessment of UK (specifically political) risk and offers scope for further near-term strength for the pound."
"The release calendar is limited ahead of Thursday’s Q3 GDP (2nd), as well as the trade and industrial production figures for June. Yield spreads are also looking slightly more constructive for the pound as well, showing signs of a renewed recovery following their modest mid/late July pullback."
"Bullish – the overall technical setup remains constructive as the GBP recovers back toward its mid-July peak in the mid-1.35s, as well as the upper end of its range since mid-February."
"We note the potential for additional near-term resistance closer to 1.3600 and the May peaks in the mid-1.36s. We see support in the mid/lower 1.34s, and look to a near-term range bound between 1.3450 and 1.3550."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver price reverses its course, drops some 2.70% on Tuesday, even though US Treasury yields and the Greenback remained steady, amid news that if the US does not comply with Iran’s demands, the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed. The XAG/USD trades at $64.77, after hitting a daily high of $66.49.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookFrom a technical perspective, the white metal is neutral to upward-biased after it reclaimed the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Nevertheless, the market structure of lower highs and lower lows is intact, at risk of being broken, once Silver clears the June 16 swing high of $71.19
Momentum revealed that buyers continue in control as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). But a dip in the index suggests that consolidation lies ahead.
For a bullish continuation, the XAG/USD must surpass the 100-day SMA at $68.93. Above lies the $70.00 psychological figure, followed by the June 16 high at $71.19, ahead of the 200-day SMA at $71.39.
On the flip side, if XAG/USD retreats below the August 10 daily low of $63.28 it opens the door for a deeper pullback. The next area of interest would be the 50-day SMA at $61.76 ahead of the $60.00 milestone.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 50.1% probability that Fed will keep rates unchanged at the next meeting in September. In case the probability of a rate hike increases, gold may find itself under pressure.
U.S. dollar is swinging between gains and losses against a broad basket of currencies despite falling Treasury yields. The dynamics of the American currency did not have a material impact on gold price dynamics in today’s trading session.
Gold traders will also stay focused on the situation in the Middle East. Pakistan has recently said that U.S. and Iran could reach some kind of a deal. Oil traders remain cautious, and oil markets are up by 1%. In case U.S. and Iran reach a temporary deal, oil prices will move lower, providing additional support to gold markets.
In case gold stays above the resistance level at $4360 – $4380, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the $4480 – $4500 range. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
On the support side, a move below the $4350 level will push gold towards the $4300 level. If gold manages to settle below $4300, it will head towards the nearest support at $4180 – $4200.
Silver Retreats As Gold/Silver Ratio Rebounds From Weekly Lows
Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is edging lower at the mid-session on Tuesday after giving back earlier gains. The rally stalled early in the session at $66.48. The price came in near the mid-point of the 50-day moving average at $61.75 and the 200-day moving average at $71.26.
The actual mid-point between the two indicators is $66.51. Let’s call that the pivot that will determine the direction of the last major move. A sustained move over $66.51 will indicate the presence of buyers.
If this generates enough upside momentum, we could see a near-term surge into the 200-day MA at $71.26 or a long-term 50% level at $72.08. A sustained move under $66.51 will signal the presence of sellers. This could fuel a near-term break into the 50-day MA at $61.75 or the long-term 50% level at $60.835.
What to Watch Silver is stuck between oil pushing inflation expectations higher and a CPI print that could reverse the pressure. The failure at $66.48 showed that buyers are not willing to lead ahead of the data, and rising hike odds say the rate trade is not going away on its own. Wednesday’s number is the catalyst. Soft inflation reopens the bid. Hot inflation keeps oil and the Fed in control.
The rejection at the midpoint between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages makes $66.51 the level that defines the next move. A push above it targets the 200-day. A sustained failure keeps sellers pointed toward the 50-day.
XAG/USD Current Price: $64.80Market participants keep an eye on developments in the Middle East in the absence of relevant data.The United States will publish the July Consumer Price Index on Wednesday. XAG/USD sheds some ground after peaking at a fresh multi-week high of $66.59.Silver prices are stable around the $65 mark in the American session on Wednesday, after briefly trading above $66, its highest in nearly two months. Market players have found no relevant drivers so far this week, with headlines pointing to continued tensions in the Middle East and to a conflict with no resolution in sight.
The latest on the matter indicates that Iran has submitted a new set of conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, clarifying that negotiations with Oman over traffic through the strait have nothing to do with its reopening. The stalemate between the United States (US) and Iran continues to create uncertainty in financial markets, which closely monitor oil prices. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices have been on the rise over the last few days, reviving inflation-related concerns and speculation about tighter monetary policy by central banks.
A clearer picture on the matter, particularly in the US, will appear on Wednesday, as the country will publish July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The core annual CPI is foreseen at 2.5%, slightly below the 2.6% posted in June, a reading that would not affect the odds for future Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decisions. However, if the outcome surprises to the upside, market players are likely to increase bets for a September hike, which in turn should strengthen the Greenback.
XAG/USD short-term technical outlook
On the four-hour chart, XAG/USD trades with a clear bullish bias, as price remains above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $63.96. The 100- and 200-period SMAs are clustered well lower near $59.77 and $59.37, respectively, reinforcing a well-supported uptrend. Momentum remains positive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovering in the low-60s and the Momentum indicator still in positive territory yet retreating, suggesting the latest consolidation is more a pause within the prevailing advance than a topping pattern.
According to the daily chart, XAG/USD holds well above the 20-day SMA at $59.32, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $68.93 and $71.39, respectively, remain overhead, leaving the broader trend still capped but the near-term tone constructive. Fourteen-day Momentum is positive, and the RSI at 59.99 stays in bullish territory, suggesting that buying pressure is improving as price recovers from recent lows.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the nearby 20-period SMA around $63.96, where buyers are likely to defend the short-term trend line. A deeper pullback would expose the next demand band around the 100- and 200-period SMAs at $59.77 and $59.37, where the broader bullish structure would still be intact as long as price holds above this medium-term base. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA near $68.93, ahead of the longer-term barrier provided by the 200-day SMA at $71.39. O
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) price registers modest losses on Tuesday, driven by a firm US Dollar as traders await the release of crucial US inflation data and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The rise in energy prices is also capping the yellow metal´s advance. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,381, down 0.18% in the day after hitting a daily high of $4,435.
XAU/USD eases near $4,380 as traders await US inflation data and monitor elevated energy-price risksSo far, the economic docket has remained scarce, despite the release of the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, which showed that the labor market is decelerating, coming at 8.25K jobs created, while the previous print was downward revised by 4K to 11K.
Other data, mostly ignored by markets awaiting US inflation, showed that Existing Home Sales fell further in July, by 1.7%, from 4.13 million to 4.06 million. The report stated that higher mortgage rates due to the Middle East conflict and higher house prices are capping home sales. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates have risen by over 71 basis points since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict, and are now at 6.69%.
On Wednesday, the US economic schedule will feature the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), with analysts expecting July's headline inflation to be 3.4% YoY, a tenth lower than June. Core CPI is also projected to decrease by the same margin to 2.5% YoY.
A day after the US CPI, traders will turn to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and jobless claims, the first of which follows a disappointing July Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee said the economy's biggest problem is inflation, not the collapse of industry and jobs. He reiterated that “prices have been rising too fast, we have an inflation problem, and people hate inflation.”
Money markets are still adjusting their forecasts for a Fed rate hike in September, with a 52% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, based on Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalIn the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, holds steady at 99.82, unchanged. So far, US Treasury yields, which usually correlate inversely to Gold prices, are also down two basis points, at 4.687%.
Regarding geopolitics, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran commented that the Strait of Hormuz will not open until the US changes its behaviour and accepts Tehran’s conditions.
XAU/USD price forecast: Gold struggles as 100-day SMA, poised for sideways tradingGold price seems to be consolidating after two bullish days, pushing the yellow metal above the $4,350 area. Momentum, although bullish as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), has stalled somewhat, suggesting XAU might trade sideways in the short term.
For a bullish resumption, Gold must clear the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,389. Once done, the next stop is the $4,400 psychological level, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,498 and the $4,500 milestone.
On the downside, initial support is at the July 6 high, now at $4,202. If this level fails, the next support levels are the 50-day SMA at $4,150 and $4,100
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Key Points:GBP/USD is mostly flat as traders react to BRC Retail Sales Monitor report from the UK. USD/CAD moves lower amid falling Treasury yields. USD/JPY stays below the resistance at 159.50 - 160.00.
In this article:EUR/USD
-0.09%
EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD
-0.07%
GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD
-0.09%
USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY
+0.09%
USD/JPY Forecast
U.S. Dollar Is Little Changed As Existing Home Sales Miss Analyst Estimates
DXY 110826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is mostly flat as traders focus on the Existing Home Sales report. The report indicated that Existing Home Sales decreased by -1.7% month-over-month in July, compared to analyst forecast of -0.7%.
U.S. Dollar Index continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 100.00 level, it will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range.
EUR/USD Pulled Back Below The 1.1550 Level
EUR/USD 110826 4h Chart EUR/USD is swinging between gains and losses as traders wait for geopolitical news from the Middle East. Defense Minister of Pakistan has recently said that U.S. and Iran were close to some kind of a deal despoite aggressive rhetoric from both sides. In case U.S. and Iran reach a temporary deal, oil prices will dive, providing support to the European currency.
If EUR/USD climbs back above the 1.1550 level, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.1600 – 1.1615. On the support side, a successful test of the support at 1.1510 – 1.1525 will push EUR/USD towards the next support level at 1.1435 – 1.1450.
GBP/USD Moved Away From Weekly Highs GBP/USD 110826 4h Chart GBP/USD is little changed as traders focus on the BRC Retail Sales Monitor report from the UK. The report showed that Retail Sales increased by +1% year-over-year in July, compared to analyst forecast of +1.5%.
The nearest support level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3465 – 1.3480 range. If GBP/USD manages to settle below the 1.3465 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.3335 – 1.3350. On the upside, a move above the 1.3520 level will push GBP/USD towards the resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565.
USD/CAD Tests New Lows USD/CAD 110826 4h Chart USD/CAD is losing ground as traders focus on falling Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.22% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 4.70%. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving higher despite the pullback in precious metals markets.
Currently, USD/CAD attempts to settle below the support level at 1.3920 – 1.3935. If USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.3920 level, it will move towards the next support, which is located in the 1.3825 – 1.3840 range.
USD/JPY Is Mostly Flat As Traders Take Some Profits After The Strong Rebound
USD/JPY 110826 4h Chart USD/JPY is stuck below the resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00 as traders ignore the pullback in Treasury yields. Falling Treasury yields did not put pressure on USD/JPY as traders believe that BoJ will be forced to maintain its ultra-dovish policy. The major difference in yields between U.S. and Japan serves as the key bearish catalyst for the Japanese currency.
In case USD/JPY climbs above the 160.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 161.50 – 162.00. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to intervene in case USD/JPY tests the 162.00 level.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds firm against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday following the release of softer-than-expected US jobs data, while investors await US inflation data on Wednesday and UK GDP releases on Thursday. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3508, nearly unchanged. Read More...
British Pound consolidates around 1.3500 vs USD; looks to US CPI, UK GDP for fresh impetusThe GBP/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses through the early European session on Tuesday, though it remains close to the highest level since July 16 set the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3500 psychological mark, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders opt to wait for this week's important macro releases from the US and the UK. Read More...
British Pound clings to gains against US Dollar, US CPI in focusThe British Pound (GBP) holds onto two-day gains marginally at around 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair remains firm as the British Pound outperforms despite financial markets pricing out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in the near term. Read More...
Crude oil and bond markets are flashing warning signs for risk assets. Yet, investors seem remarkably relaxed. However, if the current situation doesn’t improve markedly, we could see stock markets stage a bit of a correction and in the FX space risk-sensitive currency pairs could take a dip. With that in mind, the risks to the near-term EUR/USD outlook remain titled to the downside. With CPI still a day away, all the focus is on crude oil and US-Iran headlines.
Crude oil remains the key risk for EUR/USD outlook Crude oil prices have surged in the last few days because the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, and there are no signs of progress between the US and Iran.
Oil prices have been rising sharply in the last few days. Today, they were up more than 2% earlier, with Brent briefly reaching around $89 dollars a barrel, before giving back some of those gains.
Source: TradingView.com The latest headlines around talks between Oman and Iran provided some relief, but we shouldn’t confuse talks with an actual breakthrough. Indeed, Iran has come out saying that the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until their conditions are met.
But current standings from both the US and Iran suggests any potential deal is still some way off, meaning risks remain skewed to the upside for oil prices and to the downside for EUR/USD.
Concerns about supply shortages are also evidenced in oil inventories data in the US, where crude stockpiles are now at their lowest level in more than four decades.
If oil (and gas) prices continue to push higher, this will be bad news for energy importing regions like the eurozone, making the EUR/USD outlook somewhat bearish.
Don’t forget about the bond markets On top of the US-Iran situation, the prospect of the Fed keeping rates high — or even tightening policy in September — is still on the table. Yet equity markets, including the German DAX index, have barely flinched. The DAX hit a new all-time high earlier today, before coming off its highs a few moments ago. So, is the market underestimating the risks?
There is also the persistent warning sign in the bond market. Yields, which have been rising alongside oil prices, during the US-Iran war, have remained consistently high across the curve.
If crude continues higher, investors could start worrying about another inflationary shock. That could push yields even higher, putting pressure on bond prices, and ultimately make equities much less attractive - especially growth stocks. That could also be bad news for foreign currencies, especially those where interest rates are already lower compared to the US, or those where the economy relies on energy imports – such as the euro.
Technical EUR/USD outlook and key levels to watch The EUR/USD was holding around 1.1550 handle at the time of writing, but the directional bias is far from clear. Volatility in this pair has been shocking low for a while now. It is not just because of the summer months, although clearly this is also contributing to subdued trading activity.
Source: TradingView.com The pair broke its bearish trend line a few days ago, yet there has been little desire to bid up the exchange rate meaningfully from here by the bulls. That’s understandable because we have the all-important inflation data coming up and not to mention the ongoing oil market uncertainty.
Perhaps it makes sense to trade this EUR/USD from one level to the next and moving on to the next opportunity in these circumstances.
Key short term resistance is between 1.1575 to 1.6000 area. The most recent high comes in at 1.1622, where we also have the 200-day average converging. A break above that zone would thus be a bullish technical development.
Support meanwhile is seen around 1.1500-1.1520 area. Below this 1.1470ish and 1.1410 are the next downside targets, followed by the recent lows near 1.1350.
In summary So, the EUR/USD outlook looks far from certain. For now, it is in a holding pattern ahead of US CPI. But if oil prices keep rising and bond yields continue climbing, the downside risks could become more pronounced - especially if US CPI also turns out to be hotter than expected.
In the slightly longer term outlook, the big question is whether the EUR/USD can continue looking through higher oil prices — or whether bonds eventually trigger the correction investors have been largely ignoring.
USD/CHF trades with a positive bias on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recent gains ahead of Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Price action has stabilized above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) following a sharp pullback from above 0.8200 in late July.
At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8113, extending gains for a second consecutive day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, hovers around 99.80, holding above the 100-day SMA at 99.75.
USD/CHF holds a mildly positive technical tone above the 50-day SMA at 0.8067, though the 21-day SMA at 0.8112 keeps gains in check.
The 100-day SMA at 0.7968 supports the broader recovery structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 points to balanced momentum after cooling from earlier overbought levels.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, suggesting that upside momentum has weakened. However, the broader tone stays constructive as long as the pair holds above the 50-day SMA.
A sustained break above the 21-day SMA could open the door to 0.8150, followed by the 0.8200 psychological mark. On the downside, a move below the 50-day SMA would expose the 0.8000 psychological level. Further losses could bring the 100-day SMA at 0.7968 and the horizontal support at 0.7900 into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Euro (EUR) is steady, extending a tight consolidation around the mid-1.15s after the Dollar’s late-July Fed-driven decline. EUR/USD trades close to a fair value estimate based on 2-year Germany–US yield spreads, with sentiment-driven correlations strengthening and a quiet data and European Central Bank (ECB) calendar pointing to continued range trading.
Euro steady in tight range"The EUR remains steady as it extends its tight consolidation in the mid-1.15s, with limited overall movement observed in the period following the USD’s broad Fed-driven decline from late July."
"The EUR continues to trade in tandem with a narrow FV estimate based on 2Y Germany-US yield spreads, currently at 1.1563."
"Correlation studies reveal a moderation in fundamentally- (spread) driven movement, while correlations to sentiment (risk reversals) are elevated and strengthening."
"Bullish/neutral – the EUR’s bullish momentum is fading, with the RSI drifting into the upper 50s. The recovery from late July has shown signs of deceleration while still maintaining a marginal bull trend with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows."
"Recent resistance has been observed around 1.1580 and we see additional resistance closer to 1.1600 and the 200 day MA at 1.1630. Support is expected at the 50 day MA at 1.1468. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1580. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Last October India imported more than 1,500 tonnes of silver, and by May the figure was under 50, for reasons that had nothing to do with demand.
The reason is oil, and a currency under strain. Defending the rupee meant making bullion expensive and difficult to bring into the country, and the world's largest silver market went quiet almost overnight. What makes that worth reading this week rather than next quarter is that the oil price which set the whole thing in motion has just moved sharply the other way.
Silver trades near $62.17 an ounce as I write, up close to 6% in two days, with gold around $4,268 at a seven-week high. The move came from an unexpected direction. Iran and Oman moved toward a proposed framework for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, oil fell roughly 10% on the week to three-week lows, and the market cut the odds of a September rate rise to 55% from 67% in two days. Cheaper oil, cooler inflation, lower rates. Tracing what that does to physical silver demand is the sort of work I do at Golden Meadow®.
The numberIn May 2026, India imported 46.8 tonnes of silver against 534.3 tonnes in the same month a year earlier. Importers reported June lower again. That is a 91% collapse from a country that buys more than 80% of its silver from abroad, and it was the weakest month since July 2023.
Hold on to that October figure, because of what was happening around it. Indian monthly imports ran above 1,500 tonnes during the squeeze that sent the cost of borrowing silver in London to record highs. Borrowing cost matters because a trader who has sold silver forward has to source the metal from somewhere, and when the vaults thin out that rental price spikes. The buyer at the centre of that episode is the one that has now gone quiet.
To put the scale in proportion, the roughly 487 tonnes India did not import in May is about 15.7 million ounces. Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast the entire global market running a shortfall of 46.3 million ounces across the whole of 2026, the sixth consecutive annual deficit. One month of missing Indian buying is around a third of that.
Why it happened, and why it was never about silverThe Iran war pushed crude toward $118 a barrel in April. India imports most of what it burns, so the bill arrived immediately: oil imports jumped 53% in a single month and the merchandise trade deficit widened 37.3% to $28.38 billion. The rupee became the worst-performing Asian currency of 2026, falling around 7% to a record low near 96 to the dollar.
Precious metals were the other half of the problem. Gold and silver imports reached $102.5 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year, up 26.7%, lifting their share of India's total import bill to 14% from 11.8%. Silver alone hit a record $12 billion on 7,335 tonnes across that fiscal year.
So on May 13 New Delhi raised the import duty on gold and silver to 15% from 6%, days after the prime minister asked citizens to stop buying bullion for a year. A licensing regime followed. Most forms of silver were restricted in mid-May, June added silver grain and powder, and most banks still lack the permits they need to bring metal in. Amrapali Group Gujarat's chief executive told Reuters that imports have "nearly come to a halt."
Silver was collateral damage in a currency defence. Indian households did not stop wanting it. Their government made buying it expensive and difficult in order to protect the rupee.
Sources: Business Recorder / Reuters: India Silver Import Curbs Create Shortages | Business Standard: Imports Slump as Licensing Curbs Disrupt Shipments | SilverSeek: Indian Import Tax Driving Silver Shortage | Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2026
What it looks like inside IndiaThe domestic market shows the mirror image of the global one. By early July, Reuters reported dealers charging premiums of $6.50 an ounce over official domestic prices, more than 10% above benchmark, against discounts of as much as $5.50 an ounce in May. That detail matters more than it looks. Official domestic prices already include the 15% import duty and a 3% sales levy, so this premium sits on top of the tax rather than inside it. It is what buyers pay purely because the metal is scarce.
Two shock absorbers have been used up. Withdrawals from Indian silver exchange-traded funds released metal that softened the shortage until dealers reported those volumes absorbed. That left buyers leaning on Hindustan Zinc, the country's largest domestic producer, to fill a gap it was never sized to fill.
Worth noting what kind of demand this is. India's record silver imports in the last fiscal year were driven by fund buying as a hedge rather than by jewellery. The demand being shut off is investment demand, which is the fastest kind to come back.
What this means to Silver investorsThree things follow, and the first is uncomfortable.
In the near term this is bearish, not bullish. Removing 15.7 million ounces of buying in a month makes the global shortfall smaller, not larger. If the curbs hold through the restocking window that runs ahead of the October and November festivals, the 2026 deficit is likelier to come in under the 46.3 million ounce forecast than over it. Anyone treating India's silence as a bullish setup has the sign backwards.
The second point cuts the other way. Demand suppressed by a rule is mostly deferred rather than destroyed. Nothing has changed about India's appetite for silver, its wedding calendar, or its habit of holding metal rather than paper. What changed is a customs notification, and notifications can be withdrawn as quickly as they were issued. Metals Focus and the Silver Institute recorded Indian physical investment rising 33% to 79.2 million ounces in 2025, with another 68.3 million ounces going into exchange-traded products, for a record total the survey puts at 147.6 million ounces. That is the buyer currently locked outside the door.
The third is the one to watch, and it is why this belongs in front of you now. The curbs were a response to crude near $118 a barrel. Oil is now trading in the $70s. If it stays there, the pressure on the rupee eases, the trade deficit narrows, and the fiscal case for taxing bullion at 15% weakens with it. The trigger that closed this door is already reversing, and any reopening should show up in Indian premiums before it shows up anywhere else.
One connection deserves stating carefully, because it is easy to overclaim. Western vaults have looked calm for months. Metals Focus and the Silver Institute reported that only 17% of London's silver was unallocated to exchange-traded funds by the end of September 2025, against almost 35% at the end of 2024, and that spare portion has since recovered. India's absence is one plausible reason for the improvement, alongside softer solar demand, fund redemptions and higher recycling. The available data do not separate those causes. What can be said is that the buyer who caused the last emergency in London has been switched off by a decision taken in New Delhi for reasons that have nothing to do with silver, and that decision is reversible. I track that channel issue by issue in the Silver Catalyst.
The longer-term case for silver rests on a structural shortfall that is running into its sixth consecutive year, met each time by drawing down metal already sitting above ground. India's absence changes the timing of that arithmetic. It does not change the arithmetic.
EUR/GBP is trading on the lower end of its weekly range near the 0.8540 price zone on Tuesday. With no Eurozone or British data until early Wednesday, the cross is trading solely on sentiment, led by Iran's ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the United States' (US) counterblockade of Iranian ports.
Adding to the negative sentiment, US forces attacked a Panama-flagged ship that was trying to cross through the Strait.
The Sterling is trading with a firmer tone, maintaining the cross in the red for a second consecutive day.
On Wednesday, the main catalyst for the EUR/GBP will be the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). On Thursday, the preliminary United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released, giving another indication of the direction of the cross.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8545, holding a mildly bearish near-term bias as it remains capped beneath both the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8551 and the 20-period SMA at 0.8559. Short-term momentum is soft, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 37, hinting at lingering downside pressure even as the cross inches away from oversold territory.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns at 0.8547, followed by a tighter barrier at 0.8551 where a horizontal level coincides with the 100-period SMA, before the 20-period SMA at 0.8559 marks a stronger cap to any recovery attempts. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8544, with a deeper floor at 0.8541. A clear break below this lower band would open the way for further weakness in the short term.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The Bank of Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market in late July. Initial indications put the operation at roughly JPY8.45 trillion, near $52.8 bln, as the dollar approached JPY164.
Robust Canadian economic data and broad U.S. dollar weakness outweighed falling crude oil prices, pushing USD/CAD down toward two-month lows Key upcoming catalysts include Wednesday's US CPI release and new 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods effective August 19, both pivotal for direction Holding U.S. dollars carries risks from Federal Reserve rate cuts, whereas Canadian dollar exposure remains vulnerable to falling energy prices and trade friction Oil prices have fallen notably in recent weeks due to changing dynamics in the Middle East and evolving supply expectations. Despite this, the Canadian dollar has strengthened against the US dollar more than anticipated, with USD/CAD trading around 1.393, a level not seen in approximately two months.
This divergence suggests that oil prices are not the sole driver of the Canadian dollar’s performance. Other factors are providing more substantial support for the Canadian currency in the current market conditions.
Oil Is Down, But That’s Not the Story Right Now WTI crude’s been on a bumpy ride lately. After hitting a late July high near $86.89, it fell to about $74.30 in early August, though it’s since found its footing in the upper $70s. This dip came as Middle East tensions eased, partly due to a U.S.-Iran memorandum that calmed fears about Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Record U.S. output and expected inventory surpluses also played a part.
Ordinarily, a drop like that would hurt the loonie. But the currency has mostly shrugged it off.
Several key macro factors are insulating the Loonie from the recent slide in oil prices. For one, Canada’s own economic data has given the currency a lot of support. Strong domestic job numbers and steady GDP growth have boosted confidence in the country’s economic health.
Interest rate differences still favor the US dollar, as the Federal Reserve’s policy rate is higher than the Bank of Canada’s 2.25% target. While the Fed remains cautious, commentary from Vantage Markets suggests the Bank of Canada’s policy rate has reassured investors, signaling that Canadian rates have stabilized.
What to Watch in the Coming Weeks A few things could quickly change this situation. For one, everyone will be watching Wednesday’s US CPI release. A hot inflation number there could bring back Fed rate-hike expectations and give the dollar another boost.
Additionally, new U.S. tariffs of 50% on approximately $20 billion of Canadian goods are set to take effect on August 19. Unlike previous measures, these tariffs will apply even to goods that typically receive preferential treatment under the CUSMA trade agreement.
This presents a significant challenge for Canadian exporters and could exert downward pressure on the Canadian dollar once the tariffs are fully implemented.
Furthermore, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on September 2 is approaching. The consensus among most analysts is that the bank will maintain its current rate of 2.25% as it continues to assess the impact of the tariffs.
Risks in Holding Either Currency If you hold Canadian dollars, you’re exposed to how commodity prices move. If oil prices fall for a while, it would hurt export earnings and the Canadian dollar. Trade uncertainty or weak Canadian economic news could also undo recent gains.
On the other side, the US dollar remains susceptible to weaker US economic indicators or a shift in Federal Reserve policy towards a more accommodative stance. Geopolitical risks can sometimes support the dollar as a safe-haven asset, while at other times, they can boost oil prices and the Canadian dollar.
Speculative positioning adds another wrinkle. Traders have been betting against the Canadian dollar more heavily than almost any other major currency. This means if something good happens for Canada, those bets could quickly unwind, causing sharp, exaggerated moves in the Canadian dollar in either direction.
Why has the Canadian dollar gained despite softer oil periods?
Stronger Canadian July jobs data, lower unemployment and relative US dollar softness have outweighed oil weakness in supporting the loonie recently.
What’s the risk of holding US dollars right now?
A weakening labor market and softer inflation data could deepen Fed rate-cut expectations, extending recent dollar weakness against major currencies including CAD.
What is the main risk for the Canadian dollar?
A sustained decline in oil prices, weaker domestic data or escalated trade tensions could reverse recent CAD strength against the US dollar.
Commerzbank's Chief Economist Dr. Jörg Krämer expects EUR/USD to recover once the Iran conflict eases and to grind higher over the coming quarters. Krämer links Euro strength to eroding Federal Reserve independence, falling US rate expectations and a significantly overvalued Dollar on purchasing power parity. Commerzbank's updated forecast sees EUR/USD at 1.18 by mid‑2027 and 1.19 by end‑2027.
Dollar seen weakening on Fed doubts"The EUR/USD exchange rate should rise again after the war ends and continue to drift higher in the following quarters due to the eroding independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, especially since the dollar is significantly overvalued in terms of purchasing power parity."
"We expect the EUR/USD rate to be 1.18 by mid-2027 (previously 1.20)."
"We expect US interest rate expectations to correct even further downward in the coming months, weighing on the dollar."
"On the one hand, inflation risks are likely to diminish with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which we expect to occur by the end of the year."
"All in all, we expect a gradual rise in EUR/USD toward 1.19 by the end of 2027 (previous forecast: 1.21)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad explains USD/JPY has retraced half of its post-intervention drop, with US–Japan rate spreads already narrowing in favor of the Japanese Yen (JPY). Haddad sees crude price spikes as the main obstacle to Yen gains and argues FX intervention can cap USD/JPY upside but not drive a sustained decline, highlighting major resistance at 160.00.
Yen gains constrained by high crude"US-Japan rate spreads have already narrowed in favor of JPY, and we see room for further compression. The BoJ’s policy rate is near the lower end of its neutral range estimate (1.10%-2.50%) while Japan’s economy is operating above potential. In contrast, Fed policy is restrictive (assuming a neutral rate of 3.00%) and the economy is operating around potential."
"The bigger obstacle to JPY gains is the spikes in crude oil prices. Until crude retreats, FX intervention can contain USD/JPY upside but not force a sustained move lower. USD/JPY next major resistance is offered at 160.00."
"USD/JPY is consolidating yesterday’s gains, having retraced 50% of its intervention-driven drop since July 30."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD fluctuates on Tuesday, holding within the range seen over the past week. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1546, virtually unchanged on the day.
The sideways price action comes as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes near its recent lows, with traders closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, particularly around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Attention also turns to Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could shape Federal Reserve (Fed) rate expectations for the September meeting and drive the next move in the US Dollar and, in turn, EUR/USD.
Euro seen grinding higher as Fed independence erodes and Dollar overvaluation unwindsAccording to Commerzbank, the EUR/USD exchange rate is likely to regain traction once geopolitical tensions ease, with the bank arguing that "the EUR/USD exchange rate should rise again after the war ends and continue to drift higher in the following quarters due to the eroding independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, especially since the dollar is significantly overvalued in terms of purchasing power parity." The bank also highlights the policy-rate backdrop, stating that "we expect US interest rate expectations to correct even further downward in the coming months, weighing on the dollar."
Reflecting these factors, the bank has trimmed but maintained a constructive medium‑term profile for the pair, now projecting that “we expect the EUR/USD rate to be 1.18 by mid-2027 (previously 1.20)” and, “all in all, we expect a gradual rise in EUR-USD toward 1.19 by the end of 2027 (previous forecast: 1.21).”
Technical analysis: Daily chart
EUR/USD is hovering between the short- and longer-term moving averages and thus maintaining a neutral near-term bias. Momentum remains constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart near 59 hinting at persistent buying interest and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line in positive territory, suggesting a mild bullish tone in the backdrop despite the layered resistance above price.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day SMA at 1.1468, followed by a horizontal floor at 1.1400 and a deeper structural base near 1.1350.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1567, with a more significant barrier at the 200-day SMA at 1.1630. A sustained break above these levels would be needed to unlock a more convincing bullish phase, while failure to do so would keep the pair confined within its current range.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.02%0.02%-0.06%-0.02%-0.22%-0.08%-0.02%EUR0.02%0.04%-0.04%0.01%-0.16%-0.06%0.00%GBP-0.02%-0.04%-0.09%-0.04%-0.21%-0.10%-0.04%JPY0.06%0.04%0.09%0.05%-0.14%-0.02%0.06%CAD0.02%-0.01%0.04%-0.05%-0.18%-0.07%-0.00%AUD0.22%0.16%0.21%0.14%0.18%0.11%0.18%NZD0.08%0.06%0.10%0.02%0.07%-0.11%0.07%CHF0.02%-0.01%0.04%-0.06%0.00%-0.18%-0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes Gold breaking above USD 4,400 per ounce despite a sharp Oil rally, with Fed rate expectations only modestly higher after weak US labour data. ETF investors added 14.5 tons over four days, and global Gold ETFs saw July inflows of 23.5 tons, mainly in Europe and Asia. Fritsch remains sceptical that Gold can defy higher Oil and rates for long.
Price surge driven by ETF demand"This morning, the gold price rose above the USD 4,400 per troy ounce mark for the first time since early June."
"Despite the higher oil price, interest rate expectations have risen only slightly and remain lower than they were before Friday’s disappointing US labour market data."
"Gold is receiving a boost from ETF investors."
"According to data from Bloomberg, there have been inflows into gold ETFs totalling 14.5 tons over the last four trading days."
"We view the recent price rise with scepticism, as interest rate expectations are unlikely to decouple from higher oil prices on a sustained basis."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold extends to $4,445 above both EMAs, with $4,600 as the next resistance level and $4,000 as support below. Source: TradingView The gold market has rallied a bit, gapping higher to kick off the trading session on Tuesday as traders continue to jump into this market. That being said, we have given back some of the initial gains, as perhaps we are getting a little stretched. It has been a pretty explosive breakout. We got a little bit of a boost on Friday after the jobs report came out negative for July, but there are still concerns in the Middle East that could cause chaos in the bond market, and that is part of our problem in the gold market, as the uncertainty is something that could continue.
Technical Setup and Bond Yield Impact The bond market has been screaming higher in yield, and that works against the backdrop of owning a non-yielding asset like gold. That being said, the breakout was real. It was voluminous from the $300 range we had been in, but that doesn’t mean that the market has to go straight up in the air forever, and quite frankly, eventually gravity will get involved. That’s part of what we’re looking at here, I believe at this point.
Silver trades at $65.36 between both EMAs, with $60 as the floor below and $70 as the next key level above. Source: TradingView The silver market has been hanging around the 200-day EMA for the last couple of days, but it did show a little bit of hesitation here in early Tuesday trading right at that same 200-day EMA. The market pulling back a bit is not a huge surprise, as technical indicators are so heavily followed. A lot of longer-term traders will be looking at this for determining the trend, and as we are approaching it, quite often we do see some pushback.
Technical Levels and Yield Dynamics The 50-day EMA sits just below, and that could offer a bit of support. We’ll just have to wait and see. But I think the main story here is that the market just got a little overstretched. We can say the same thing about gold as well, and the two do tend, at least over the longer term, to move somewhat in tandem. The $60 level has been a strong support region going down to the $55 level, but now we’ll have to watch whether or not non-yielding assets get a bit of a bid with the higher interest rates being offered.
Chris Turner at ING observes that EUR/USD realised volatility continues to decline, with one-year volatility matching lows from November 2024. He argues this calm backdrop is unlikely to change before mid-September, and warns that underhedged European investors in US assets may need to raise Dollar hedge ratios if the Dollar weakens. EUR/USD is expected to stay within 1.1515-1.1560 today.
Calm trading and hedge ratio risks"EUR/USD realised volatility continues to sink and one-year is now at 5.8% – matching the low from November 2024. As above, it is hard to see that environment changing anytime soon – or at least until mid-September when central bankers around the world return from their summer breaks."
"We published an article yesterday looking at the dollar hedge ratios of European investors. The risk here is that European investors in the US are once again underhedged and have to quickly raise their dollar hedge ratios should the dollar look vulnerable again."
"It is hard to see EUR/USD trading much outside a 1.1515-1.1560 range today."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The dollar is flat near 99.84, which leaves gold without a currency tailwind or a major headwind. Everything is waiting on the same number.
A soft CPI print weakens the dollar, pulls yields lower and puts pressure back on September hike odds. That is the combination that gives gold another run at the morning high. A hot print with oil near $90 and yields already above 4.70% gives sellers a reason to press. Producer prices follow Thursday and retail sales land Friday. The market gets three chances this week to reassess whether inflation is cooling or whether higher energy is working its way through.
Structural demand and returning Western buyers are holding gold above the correction lows. Those are supports underneath the market, not catalysts above it. The catalyst is CPI.
What to Watch Gold hit $4,435.25 Tuesday because the rate outlook had softened and Hormuz risk was still in the market. It pulled back because yields and hike odds climbed with oil. CPI Wednesday is the deciding print. A soft number reopens the trade that carried gold to the morning high. A hot number with crude near $90 gives the bond market permission to keep pushing yields higher, and gold has shown this week it cannot hold rallies against that pressure.
The failed push above the retracement level Tuesday left gold between the morning high and Monday’s close. A hold above that close keeps the uptrend intact. A close below it forms a reversal pattern that points toward a deeper correction off the recent rally.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.35%, with all nine board members voting to leave policy unchanged. The decision itself was expected. The more useful signal came from why the Bank chose to pause.
Inflation is still too high, but consumer spending, housing and the labour market are beginning to cool. After three rate hikes this year, the RBA now wants to see how much of that tightening is still working through the economy before deciding whether another increase is needed.
That leaves the RBA in an awkward middle ground: not enough evidence to hike again immediately, but not enough disinflation to declare the tightening cycle finished. For AUD, the next move is therefore a confirmation story rather than a simple hawkish-rate story.
The RBA is pausing to assess, not declaring victoryThe latest statement suggests the RBA believes tighter policy is starting to have a real effect. Trimmed mean inflation remains elevated, but softer consumer spending, cooler housing conditions in some capital cities and a softer labour market all point to demand losing some momentum.
That is why the hold should not be read as a dovish pivot. The Bank can keep policy restrictive while waiting for the lagged effect of earlier hikes. If inflation remains sticky, or global energy risks keep price pressures elevated, the option of another hike remains open.
For AUD, this is supportive at the margin, but it is not a one-way bullish signal. The currency still has to prove that the RBA backdrop is strong enough to overcome resistance and whatever the US dollar does next.
AUD/USD now has to clear 0.704-0.708AUDUSD is now testing the 0.704-0.708 resistance area on the daily chart. Price has pushed into a previous high range, but the latest candles are beginning to stall and momentum has failed to confirm the higher high.
From here, the US side of AUDUSD becomes the next immediate driver, with US CPI due tomorrow on 12 August.
A hotter US inflation print would make it harder for AUDUSD to break higher. The first pullback references sit near the channel midline around 0.700 and the lower channel area near 0.695. A clean channel failure would expose the larger 0.683-0.687 support zone.
A cooler US CPI print would give the pair more room to break above 0.708. If price can close above that area and hold it on a retest, the next references are around 0.718 and then 0.723-0.727.
Fundamentally, the RBA is in a much more comfortable position than earlier in the year.
Softer housing activity, lending, consumer spending and labour conditions suggest its previous hikes are beginning to cool demand, which should gradually ease inflation pressure. Technically, AUDUSD may also be forming bearish divergence at resistance.
RBNZ shows a hawkish policy is not enoughThe RBNZ offers a useful warning against treating a hawkish central bank as an automatic bullish currency signal. It raised the Official Cash Rate to 2.50% on 8 July and said further increases are likely, although the timing remains uncertain.
Even so, NZD/USD remains below its long-running weekly downtrend and beneath the 0.603-0.612 resistance area. The pair has not converted renewed RBNZ tightening into a structural breakout of its trendline resistance.
That makes NZD/USD a control case for the RBA story. Domestic policy can support a currency, but relative growth, commodity exposure, the US dollar and existing price structure still decide how much of that support reaches the exchange rate.
AUD/NZD may be reaching a turning pointRemoving the US dollar from the equation, the RBA may finally be starting to see its aggressive tightening cycle pay off.
Housing activity and new lending have cooled, consumer spending has slowed, and labour conditions have softened, giving the Bank more reason to pause and assess the impact of the three hikes delivered between February and May.
The RBNZ, on the other hand, is at a much earlier stage. It only restarted tightening in July, raising the OCR to 2.50%, with further hikes still likely. That timing gap matters because Australia may now be moving into the later stages of its tightening cycle just as New Zealand begins applying more pressure.
If that gap starts to narrow, so could Australia’s relative rate advantage. That raises the risk that AUDNZD is approaching a turning point rather than simply extending higher.
The idea that AUD may weaken against the NZD is supported technically as well.
The pair has tapped a major trendline resistance extending from 2019 with almost perfect precision. The current pullback could still form a bull-flag consolidation, but failure to recover would leave room for a deeper retracement towards roughly 1.162-1.169, where the trading volume weighted average price anchored from the start of the rally sits.
The GBP/USD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.3500 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Cable edges down as the US Dollar (USD) ticks up; however, financial markets doubt the slight recovery move seen this week, with traders paring hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets for the September policy meeting due to weak United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July.
Economists at ING describe the July US jobs report as "surprisingly weak," noting that nonfarm payrolls "fell 23k" on the month. They highlight that the softness was compounded by "103K of downward revisions to the past two months' data," which has dragged the "3M average" gain in payrolls down to just "20,000." ING argues that this combination of an outright monthly decline and sizeable revisions paints a notably softer picture of underlying labour market momentum. Read more...
British Pound consolidates around 1.3500 vs USD; looks to US CPI, UK GDP for fresh impetusThe GBP/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses through the early European session on Tuesday, though it remains close to the highest level since July 16 set the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3500 psychological mark, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders opt to wait for this week's important macro releases from the US and the UK.
The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on Wednesday, followed by the preliminary UK Q2 GDP figures on Thursday and the US Producer Price Index (PPI). In the meantime, the US-Iran standoff, along with bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a more hawkish stance amid inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, supports the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and caps GBP/USD. Read more...
British Pound clings to gains against US Dollar, US CPI in focusThe British Pound (GBP) holds onto two-day gains marginally at around 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair remains firm as the British Pound outperforms despite financial markets pricing out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in the near term.
Strategists at Rabobank point out that “for the UK, the market is currently pricing in a reduced expectation of a rate hike by the end of the year. Read more...
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its correction on Tuesday and trades around $65.05 at the time of writing, down 2.31% on the day. The white metal retreats from the seven-week high reached at $66.59 on Monday as rising Oil prices and prospects of tighter monetary policy in the United States (US) weigh on precious metals.
Oil prices have risen sharply since the beginning of the week as negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain. Iran is conditioning the reopening of this strategic maritime route on several demands from Washington, including the payment of war reparations and the lifting of sanctions.
Some signs of easing tensions are nevertheless emerging. Qatar says on Tuesday that negotiations between Oman and Iran have reached an advanced stage and that it has received positive feedback from both sides. Doha stresses, however, that the talks are at a critical juncture, maintaining uncertainty over the prospect of a swift agreement.
This situation supports energy prices and revives concerns about US inflation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $81.20, up more than 5% since the beginning of the week, despite the daily decline. Higher Oil prices are also helping to keep US Treasury yields elevated, reducing the appeal of Silver, a non-yielding asset.
Against this backdrop, investors are increasing their expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now estimate a 52% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at the September meeting, up from approximately 44% the day before.
Comments from Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack are also fueling these expectations. Hammack said on Monday that current monetary policy “is not hurting the economy” and argued that the Fed will need to raise interest rates more than once to bring inflation back toward its target.
These prospects provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) and represent an additional headwind for Silver. A stronger US Dollar tends to make the white metal more expensive for investors using other currencies, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Investors now turn their attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Wednesday. Stronger-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations of a September rate hike and maintain pressure on Silver. Conversely, easing price pressures could reduce expectations of monetary tightening and provide support to the precious metal.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
China’s official gold buying accelerated further in June, and the Chinese central bank is beginning to bring some of that gold home.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) officially purchased 640,000 troy ounces of gold in July. The nearly 20-tonne increase in reserves was the largest since 2023.
This came on the heels of a 480,000-ounce increase to China's official gold holdings in June.
The People’s Bank of China has officially added gold to its reserves for 21 straight months.
Year-to-date, the Chinese Central Bank has officially increased its gold holdings by nearly 60 tonnes. China now officially holds 2,366 tonnes of the yellow metal valued at $306.35 billion.
Notice I’m emphasizing the word "official."
China is among the central banks that are likely to hold significantly more gold than they publicly disclose. As Jan Nieuwenhuijs has reported, the People's Bank of China is secretly buying large amounts of gold off the books. According to data parsed by the Money Metals researcher, the Chinese central bank is currently sitting on more than 5,000 tonnes of monetary gold located in Beijing – more than TWICE what has been publicly admitted.
The mainstream is finally taking notice. Last month, Goldman Sachs picked up on China’s undisclosed purchases, and analysts at BMO Capital estimated that Chinese gold reserves could surpass the U.S.’s within five years.
Bringing its Gold homeChina has also started moving some of its gold reserves from London to Hong Kong, joining other central banks in a gold repatriation movement.
Bloomberg reported that officials who asked to remain anonymous said the People’s Bank of China “has built up inventories in Hong Kong over the past few months,” and that this recent move “is accelerating a longer-term trend whereby the PBOC has been moving some of its gold reserves back home from London.”
The unnamed officials said the PBOC plans to continue relocating metal from London.
Chinese gold repatriation appears to be part of a broader strategy as China (and Asia more broadly) positions itself to become a bigger player in the global gold market.
Earlier this month, Hong Kong launched trial operations of its gold clearing and settlement system, putting the region in a position to challenge Western dominance of the global gold market. Meanwhile, Hong Kong officials plan to expand the region’s gold storage capacity from 200 to more than 2,000 tonnes over the next three years.
Bloomberg reported that the movement of gold from London to Hong Kong’s expanding vaulting facilities signals support for the new clearing system. When the system launched last month, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng said the central bank plans to continue allocating national foreign reserves to Hong Kong.
Hong Kong has also invited other countries to participate in the clearing system and to vault gold in the administrative region. Cambodia has already taken up Hong Kong’s invitation to store gold there.
As already noted, many countries are diversifying their gold storage or bringing their metal home.
As a Financial Times article summarized the trend, “Global central banks are removing gold from vaults in London and New York as they become more skittish about storing bullion outside their own borders, according to a new survey.”
India is one of the countries aggressively repatriating its gold. In the spring of 2024, the Reserve Bank of India brought 100 tonnes of gold home, repatriating it from vaults in the UK. Over the last six months, the Indian central bank has repatriated another 104 tonnes.
According to the Economic Times of India, U.S. weaponization of the dollar is one of the key factors driving gold repatriation, specifically aggressive sanctions levied on Russia after it invaded Ukraine and the freezing of Afghanistan’s reserves by Western powers.
Those episodes, involving G7 countries restricting access to sovereign assets, have reshaped how central banks think about custody.
Emerging market central banks and countries with strained relations with the U.S. aren’t the only ones bringing their gold home. France completed its gold repatriation project earlier this year.
Metals Focus senior analyst Junlu Liang said gold repatriation shows how central banks are reassessing the role of gold in reserve management.
In some countries, domestic political considerations have further strengthened calls to relocate gold holdings closer to home.
Several other countries have repatriated gold in recent years, including the Netherlands, Australia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania. Meanwhile, there is a growing chorus of voices across the political spectrum calling on German officials to bring the country’s gold home.
This gold repatriation trend underscores the importance of holding physical gold free from counterparty risk.
The GBP/USD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.3500 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Cable edges down as the US Dollar (USD) ticks up; however, financial markets doubt the slight recovery move seen this week, with traders paring hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets for the September policy meeting due to weak United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July.
US payrolls stumble as July jobs data disappointsEconomists at ING describe the July US jobs report as "surprisingly weak," noting that nonfarm payrolls "fell 23k" on the month. They highlight that the softness was compounded by "103K of downward revisions to the past two months' data," which has dragged the "3M average" gain in payrolls down to just "20,000." ING argues that this combination of an outright monthly decline and sizeable revisions paints a notably softer picture of underlying labour market momentum.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed holding interest rates steady in the September meeting have increased to 50% from 30.4% seen a month ago.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July and the United Kingdom (UK) Q2 and June Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD trades around 1.3501, holding a bullish near‑term bias as spot remains above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3429 and the downward-sloping border of the Descending Triangle pattern offering support near 1.3455.
The pair is thus supported by both dynamic and structural levels, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at about 60 points to firm but not overextended bullish momentum, suggesting buyers still control the near-term direction.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the former resistance trend line turned floor around 1.3455, followed by the 20-period EMA at 1.3429, where dip buyers may re-emerge if corrective pressure unfolds. Looking up, the pair could advance towards 1.3600 if it manages to extend the advance sustainably above the July 15 high at 1.3558.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
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The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Overnight, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 4.35%, as widely expected after June’s inflation data came in softer than forecast at 3.8% headline. Yet the accompanying statement struck a notably cautious tone, warning that trimmed mean inflation remains elevated and largely unchanged from the March quarter, with oil and related commodities still trading above pre-conflict levels due to the ongoing Middle East crisis. With 55% of economists still expecting at least one further hike in 2026, the door to additional tightening remains firmly open.
The euro, meanwhile, holds a cautiously bullish tone after climbing to a seven-week high near $1.155 against the dollar. Eurozone Q2 growth of 0.4% offered support, though weaker retail activity and mixed inflation signals keep the ECB’s own path uncertain, with policymakers maintaining a deliberately cautious stance ahead of their September 15-16 meeting and giving no firm commitment to further hikes.
The result: two central banks in genuine holding patterns, each leaving the door open to more tightening while waiting for clearer data to justify the next move.
Technical Analysis of EUR/AUD
As EUR/AUD chart shows, the pair staged a strong rally from July’s lows near 1.6243, a move that followed a bullish RSI divergence, where price carved a lower low while the RSI printed a higher low. Since topping near 1.6500 in late July, price has been compressing into a symmetrical triangle, with a descending trendline and an ascending trendline converging right around the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci zone near 1.6342-1.6372.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the ascending trendline and break above the descending one, the path would open toward the 0.382 retracement near 1.6402, with a stronger move potentially targeting a retest of the 1.6500 highs if momentum builds.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 0.618 retracement near 1.6341 would expose the 0.786 level near 1.6298, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 1.6243 low that anchored the entire July rally.
With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, and the RSI sitting in neutral territory after cooling from its earlier divergence, EUR/AUD looks poised for a decisive break—will the euro extend its late-July strength, or does the Aussie reclaim the upper hand?
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Gold (XAU/USD) pauses its rally on Tuesday after hitting a two-month high of $4,435 earlier in Asian trading hours. The modest pullback comes as uncertainty over when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen keeps Oil prices elevated. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,390, little changed on the day.
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen unless Washington pays war reparations and meets several other demands. These include lifting sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian assets, ending military threats and removing the US naval blockade.
US President Donald Trump pushed back with his own demand for compensation from Iran in a post on his Truth Social platform on Monday, saying the US would also seek compensation from Iran for those it had killed and gravely wounded.
In the latest development, Qatar says negotiations between Iran and Oman have reached an advanced stage, adding that it has received positive feedback from both countries. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $81.30, up over 6% so far this week.
Markets had only briefly scaled back Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets following the weaker-than-expected July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
However, rising Oil prices are bringing inflation concerns back into focus and tilting market expectations toward a possible rate hike, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 51.9% chance of an increase at the September meeting.
Geopolitical tensions, along with hawkish Fed expectations, are keeping the US Dollar (USD) supported near its recent lows, while US Treasury yields also remain elevated. This, in turn, creates a difficult backdrop for Gold to stage a stronger recovery.
Traders may wait for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday for fresh direction. In the meantime, US-Iran headlines are likely to drive short-term price action.
According to TD Securities, a "modest, but not overly concerning, rebound in July CPI this week will not be enough to push the Fed towards hikes," with "a good portion of the strength in the report" likely coming from "the reversal of one-off weakness in June." The bank’s forecast of "0.20% for core CPI" is expected to "keep the Fed looking to August inflation data ahead of the September meeting," while TD also highlights that "PPI on Thursday will also be a key input into PCE estimates."
Technical analysis: Bulls struggle near 100-day SMA
On the daily chart, Gold retains a bullish near-term bias as XAU/USD holds comfortably above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,148 and key Fibonacci retracement supports, while pressing into overhead supply defined by the 100-day SMA at $4,389.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 66 leans toward overbought territory, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) just below 30 hints at a still-directional but moderating trend, suggesting upside momentum remains constructive but increasingly vulnerable to consolidation near the current highs.
On the topside, immediate resistance is at the 100-day SMA at $4,389, followed by the cycle high and the 100% Fibonacci retracement at $4,435, where a clear break would open the way for a fresh extension of the bullish leg.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 78.6% retracement at $4,351, with deeper pullbacks likely to find buying interest at the 61.8% level at $4,285 and the 50% retracement at $4,238, while the 50-day SMA at $4,148 marks a more meaningful structural floor that would need to give way to ease current bullish sentiment.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
TL;DR: A hawkish BoE tailwind has lifted Sterling this week, but Thursday’s June monthly GDP — not the flattering Q2 headline — will determine whether that hawkish drift can survive into September, with EUR/GBP downside and GBP/CHF upside both hanging on the answer.
Sterling Has a Hawkish BoE Tailwind — But Thursday Will Test It Sterling has been mildly firmer against the Euro and Swiss Franc this week, helped in part by an increasingly hawkish tone inside the BoE. At the July 30 meeting, the MPC voted 6–3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann, and Huw Pill backing a hike to 4.00%. Governor Andrew Bailey remained cautious and played down expectations of an imminent move, but the direction of the voting pattern is hard to ignore.
Hawkish dissent has widened at every meeting this year:
April: 8–1. June: 7–2. July: 6–3. That’s a more meaningful signal than a static minority repeatedly casting the same votes. It suggests the Committee is gradually moving closer to another hike, even if the majority isn’t there yet. Put differently, the BoE is still holding, but hawkish pressure is building underneath that hold.
Oil Is Making the Policy Question More Urgent The recent rise in oil adds urgency to that debate. The ECB has already tightened in response to energy-driven inflation pressure, while the BoE has so far stayed put. If crude remains elevated, higher energy costs will keep feeding into the UK inflation outlook and increase pressure on the MPC to prevent second-round effects from taking hold.
Still, the BoE cannot respond to oil in isolation. The key question is whether the domestic economy is strong enough to tolerate another increase. That’s why Thursday’s GDP data matter. Strong activity would give existing hawks more room to argue inflation risk deserves priority; a sharper slowdown would strengthen Bailey’s and others’ case for patience.
For Sterling, this relative policy backdrop matters most against currencies where central-bank divergence is clearer. EUR/GBP reflects whether the BoE can begin closing the gap with the ECB, while GBP/CHF has an even cleaner setup given expectations that SNB rates stay pinned near bottom for the foreseeable future.
Why Q2 GDP May Flatter the Underlying Picture Headline Q2 GDP is expected to show 0.4% q/q growth, down from 0.6% in Q1 but still respectable given disruption from the Iran war. Yet that number may overstate underlying resilience.
Earlier in the quarter, manufacturers and clients front-loaded purchases to protect against expected price increases and supply disruption. S&P Global’s May PMI commentary explicitly linked stronger output to that stockpiling behavior, while June data showed those effects fading. That means part of Q2 growth may simply have been activity pulled forward — so a 0.4% quarterly print can look healthy while masking a much weaker economy at quarter-end.
Why June Is the Number That Really Matters That’s why June monthly GDP may carry more information than the Q2 headline itself. June output is expected to fall -0.1% m/m, reversing May’s 0.1% increase. By that point, much of the earlier front-loading had faded, making the monthly figure a cleaner read on how the economy was actually entering Q3.
If Q2 comes in around 0.4% but June contracts more sharply than expected, markets may conclude that resilience was temporary and dependent on stockpiling — giving BoE doves a stronger argument to resist tightening. If June instead holds up better than expected, the message would be much more supportive for Sterling, suggesting the economy retained momentum even after temporary war-related support faded, giving the hawkish bloc more room to expand in September.
So Thursday’s real test isn’t simply whether the UK grew in Q2 — it’s whether the UK economy still had momentum once stockpiling stopped.
ActionForex’s Technical View: EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF EUR/GBP has twice been rejected by the falling 55-day EMA, keeping the downtrend from 0.8863 intact. A break of 0.8528 minor support would suggest the rebound from 0.8453 has already run its course and bring a deeper fall back to retest 0.8453. A sustained break there would reopen the broader decline from 0.8863.
That technical setup would fit a stronger June GDP print particularly well. If the economy proves resilient enough to keep BoE hawks gaining ground, Sterling would have a clearer relative policy advantage against the Euro. On the other hand, a weak June print would weaken that argument and reduce pressure for another EUR/GBP leg lower.
GBP/CHF may offer an even cleaner expression of Sterling strength because the SNB policy outlook is far less hawkish. The rally from 1.0281 is still in progress, although momentum has stalled near the rising channel ceiling. Further upside remains favored while 1.0808 support holds.
A decisive break through channel resistance would open scope for acceleration toward the 161.8% projection of 1.0281 to 1.0674 from 1.0468, at 1.1104. Loss of 1.0808 would instead argue the rally is entering a deeper correction.
Thursday Is Really About September Q2 headline will get attention, but June could decide how markets frame the September BoE meeting. Three consecutive meetings of widening hawkish dissent show the Committee is drifting closer to tightening. Higher oil gives hawks more inflation ammunition — what they still need is evidence the economy can absorb another move.
A resilient June print would strengthen the case for EUR/GBP downside and GBP/CHF upside. A weak one would suggest Q2 strength was partly borrowed from earlier stockpiling, giving BoE doves stronger ground to push back.
Key Takeaways BoE hawkish dissent has widened at every meeting this year, from 8-1 in April to 6-3 in July, signaling gradual movement toward tightening even without a majority yet. Higher oil is adding inflation pressure the BoE can’t ignore, but the Committee needs evidence the economy can absorb a hike before acting on it. June monthly GDP (forecast -0.1% m/m) matters more than the flattering 0.4% Q2 headline, since Q2 strength was partly inflated by stockpiling that faded by June. A resilient June print would support EUR/GBP downside toward 0.8453 and GBP/CHF upside toward 1.1104; a weak print would favor BoE doves and undercut both trades. Thursday’s data matters most for how it shapes September BoE expectations, not for the Q2 headline number itself.
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ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
EUR/USD trades around 1.1535 on Tuesday at the time of writing, posting a modest 0.06% decline on the day. The pair is moving further away from its recent seven-week high of 1.1581 as the stalemate in negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran keeps geopolitical tensions elevated and supports Oil prices.
Washington and Tehran are struggling to reach a compromise that would allow the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for global energy trade. Reciprocal demands for compensation over war damages are reducing hopes for a swift peace agreement, while shipping traffic through the strait remains severely restricted.
Prospects for de-escalation have deteriorated further after Iran ruled out the possibility of fresh negotiations with US President Donald Trump. According to reports citing Iranian media, Tehran intends to wait until Trump's term ends on January 20, 2029, before considering a return to the negotiating table.
Disruptions also persist in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, adding to concerns over key shipping routes in the region. Against this backdrop, Oil prices are moving higher, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trading around $82.50 at the time of press.
Higher energy costs are a negative factor for the Euro (EUR), as the Eurozone remains heavily dependent on energy imports. A prolonged period of elevated Oil prices could increase cost pressures and weigh on the region's growth outlook.
Across the Atlantic, the US Dollar (USD) finds some support from hawkish comments by Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack. Hammack said on Monday that current monetary policy “is not hurting the economy” and that she expects more than one interest rate hike will be needed to bring inflation back toward the target.
The comments come as investors remain divided over the Fed's next monetary policy decision in September. Attention now turns to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, due on Wednesday, which could provide fresh clues about the interest rate outlook.
Headline inflation is expected to ease to 3.4% YoY in July from 3.5% in June. Core inflation, meanwhile, is expected to fall to 2.5% YoY from 2.6% in the previous month. An upside surprise could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy and provide further support to the US Dollar, while softer figures could put the currency under renewed pressure.
Euro volatility sinks as EUR/USD stays pinned in tight pre-CPI rangeAnalysts at ING highlight the increasingly subdued trading backdrop, noting that "EUR/USD realised volatility continues to sink and one-year is now at 5.8% – matching the low from November 2024." They add that "it is hard to see that environment changing anytime soon – or at least until mid-September when central bankers around the world return from their summer breaks," reinforcing the view that near-term price action is likely to remain constrained.
ING also flags positioning risks on the European side, referencing recent work on "the dollar hedge ratios of European investors." The bank cautions that "the risk here is that European investors in the US are once again underhedged and have to quickly raise their dollar hedge ratios should the Dollar look vulnerable again," a dynamic that could influence flows if sentiment toward the Dollar shifts.
Against this backdrop, ING judges that "it is hard to see EUR/USD trading much outside a 1.1515-1.1560 range today," underscoring the narrow intraday parameters. Strategists at Societe Generale share a similar view, observing that the Euro has "trimmed NFP gains for a second day after running into resistance at 100dma (1.1567)" and characterising conditions as a "rangebound session today ahead of US CPI tomorrow." Societe Generale sets out the broader technical framework with "support 1.1500, resistance 1.1625," suggesting that sizeable option interest and key moving averages are likely to keep EUR/USD anchored in the near term.
EUR/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1537, holding a mildly bearish near-term bias as it sits under the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1542 while only marginally above the 200-period SMA at 1.1526. Price is effectively testing the descending resistance trend line around 1.1537, suggesting the pair is capped by nearby overhead supply, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.4 hinting at subdued momentum rather than oversold conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the trend-line pivot near 1.1537, followed by the 100-period SMA at 1.1542, which would need to be reclaimed to ease downside pressure. On the downside, initial support is provided by the upward-sloping trend-line break area around 1.1527, ahead of firmer demand at the 200-period SMA near 1.1526, where a sustained break lower would likely extend the bearish phase toward lower hourly lows.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.26% lower at around $4,380 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal comes off the two-month high of $4,435 posted earlier in the day, as oil prices have rallied further due to escalated uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.
Brent extends gains as US-Iran tensions keep Strait of Hormuz in focusAnalysts at Danske Bank highlight that in commodities, “Brent crude climbed to USD 87/bbl as hopes faded once again for a near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.” They note that negotiations over the key shipping route “have stalled, with President Trump's latest demands on war compensation adding further uncertainty to the prospect of a deal,” leaving the oil complex firmly driven by geopolitical risk.
Higher oil prices prompt global inflation expectations, a scenario that accelerates fears of interest rate hikes by global central banks. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Gold.
Meanwhile, financial markets await the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday. The inflation data is expected to significantly influence Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations, as Chairman Kevin Warsh said in his July monetary policy press conference that officials are committed to bringing inflation down to the 2% target.
ING strategists point out that “US rates ended last week with a dovish aftertaste on the back of poor payroll numbers, but the CPI figure this week should be more instrumental.” With “only two more CPI readings” before the September Fed meeting and “around 40% of a hike priced in,” they argue that markets still need to “make up their minds about the next Fed move.” ING adds that “a benign CPI could help ease fears about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh turning the central bank overly dovish, which should also bring longer rates lower too,” reinforcing the idea that the inflation data will be pivotal in shaping both policy expectations and the rates curve.
Gold Technical Analysis
XAU/USD trades at around $4,377.89. The metal holds a constructive bullish bias as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,174.76, keeping the short-term trend supported.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.40 is approaching overbought territory, suggesting firm upside momentum but also hinting that the latest advance could be vulnerable to a pause or shallow correction.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around $4,174.76, which coincides with the July high that was the prior resistance zone. Looking up, the yellow metal needs a decisive break above the intraday high at $4,435.40 to extend the rally towards the May 29 high at $4,595.34.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) nudges lower against a firmer US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, as doubts about the fate of the US-Iran peace negotiations hurt market confidence and boost Oil prices higher. The NZD/USD pair remains trading within the last two weeks’ range, but the focus has shifted to the 0.5850 support, from the resistance at the 0.5900 area.
In the US, hawkish comments by Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack offset the negative impact from the weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Monday and provided some support to the US Dollar.
FX volatility, however, remains subdued this week, with investors split about the outcome of September's Fed meeting. In this context, all eyes are on Wednesday's US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) report, which is expected to provide further certainty about the central bank's near-term rate path.
Technical Analysis: Kiwi hovers above a set of key supports ahead of 0.5800
NZD/USD keeps treading wated within a narrow range below 0.5900, yet with technical indicators showing fading bullish momentum, which shifts the focus towards the channel bottom, at a previous resistance area near 0.5850. The 14-period Relative Strength Index in the daily chart is hovering near 59, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in the same timeframe shows moderately positive levels, although the narrowing histogram suggests that bulls are losing steam.
Bears, however, are likely to face significant hurdles at the mentioned 0.5850 support area and, above all, at the confluence of the key 200-day SMA with the uptrend support line, around 0.5825. Further down, a break of the late-July lows, near 0.5760 would confirm a trend shift.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of June's selloff, at 0.5916, ahead of the May and June top near 0.6000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.07%0.00%-0.05%-0.07%0.11%0.07%EUR-0.09%-0.02%-0.07%-0.12%-0.12%0.03%-0.02%GBP-0.07%0.02%-0.06%-0.11%-0.11%0.04%-0.01%JPY0.00%0.07%0.06%-0.05%-0.06%0.09%0.06%CAD0.05%0.12%0.11%0.05%0.00%0.15%0.10%AUD0.07%0.12%0.11%0.06%-0.00%0.15%0.10%NZD-0.11%-0.03%-0.04%-0.09%-0.15%-0.15%-0.04%CHF-0.07%0.02%0.00%-0.06%-0.10%-0.10%0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $64.78 per troy ounce, down 2.72% from the $66.59 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 8.87% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.50 on Tuesday, up from 65.92 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold rose to 4,400 USD per ounce on Tuesday, reaching a two-month high. Demand for the precious metal is growing rapidly, even amid heightened inflation risks and expectations of higher interest rates driven by elevated oil prices.
Chinese institutional investors continue to build positions in gold as a defensive asset amid heightened volatility in other markets. China’s gold-backed ETFs are recording their longest run of inflows in months.
The People’s Bank of China is also supporting the market. In July, the regulator increased its gold reserves by approximately 20 tonnes, following an increase of around 15 tonnes in June – the largest monthly addition since October 2023.
At the same time, uncertainty persists around a potential US–Iran agreement that could end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are also awaiting key US inflation data this week, which could shift expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.
Technical analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around the 4,341 USD level and, following an upside breakout, moved higher to 4,435 USD. A consolidation range is now forming below this level. A move lower towards 4,370 USD is expected next, with a possible extension to 4,340 USD. A further rise towards 4,575 USD is anticipated as the local upside target. The MACD indicator signals the early stages of bearish momentum, with its signal line above the centre line at recent highs and beginning to turn downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market broke above the 4,371 USD level and moved higher to 4,435 USD, followed by a correction to test 4,371 USD from above. A broad consolidation range is forming around 4,371 USD. A move higher towards 4,460 USD is expected, followed by a decline to 4,371 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionGold has rallied to a two-month high, driven by robust demand from Chinese institutional investors and the People’s Bank of China’s continued reserve accumulation. Despite rising inflation risks and expectations of higher interest rates, the metal’s appeal as a defensive asset has strengthened amid market volatility. Uncertainty over a potential US–Iran agreement and the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz, along with upcoming US inflation data, continues to keep markets on edge. Technically, gold may see a short-term pullback towards 4,340–4,370 USD before potentially resuming its uptrend towards 4,575 USD. The metal’s near-term direction will depend on geopolitical developments and US monetary policy expectations.
Both WTI and Brent have returned to inflated levels again as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz grinds to a halt.
There seems to be no end in sight to the war, and many economies are reporting diminishing reserves of crude.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on GBPUSD, Gold, XAUUSD, Silver, XAGUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, WTI and Brent Crude Oil.
We see some technical signs on WTI with price at the upper trend line in this bearish channel and the stochastic oscillator overbought.
But this is by no means a technical trade, as only peace talks and negotiations about the passage of tankers will affect the price of crude oil.
All JPY pairs are turning bullish as the intervention by the US Treasury only seems to have had a short-term effect, as we discussed in an earlier video:
Why USDJPY Suddenly Fell | US Intervention Explained | Will the NASDAQ Catch Up? #marketoutlook.
But, as we pointed out, Scott Bessent said he might buy a few more billion dollars worth of yen, if necessary, so we may get to witness temporary JPY strength and bearish price action on pairs like USDJPY.
Check all your favourite JPY pairs as they all look roughly the same.
Last week the US saw a dreadful Non-Farm Payrolls report, meaning that the US Federal Reserve will likely not raise interest rates next month, driving USD weaker.
The Canadian figures, on the other hand, were much better than analysts’ expectations, driving CAD stronger.
These factors, with the rising price of crude, saw price action on USDCAD falling to a key level with bearish technicals.
We will now watch for a break below support and a long way to fall before the next key levels.
Be aware that tomorrow we have US CPI, which is the key measure of inflation for the Fed, so anything can happen.
Another USD pair we will be watching is AUDUSD, which has retraced from the news and has fallen to this lower trend line on the 4-hour.
The weaker USD has gold and silver climbing again, but our stochastic oscillator looks like it might turn down; keep an eye on the economic and geopolitical news.
We are seeing a descending triangle in the UK’s FTSE100 index, and price is stalled at support.
A fall in crude oil prices may also have a negative effect on the FTSE, and GBP will usually influence it.
We can see on the GBP charts that the Pound has short-term strength against all others except CAD and NZD.
That’s all for now.
CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.
Gold made a Sunday opening low exactly at first support at 4322/4317 .
Shorts at strong 5 month trend line resistance at 4355/4360 then worked perfectly on the retest of first support at 4322/4317 for a 450 tick profit.
Longs here also worked perfectly for the second time yesterday as we made a low for the day exactly here & shot higher again for another 450 tick profit.
The break above the resistance at 4355/4360 in late evening was a buy signal to test the 100 day moving average at 4389.
I told you not to try shorts as I thought we would continue higher.
The break above 4394 was another buy signal targeting 4421/4425 and we reached 4434 over night.
We keep buying Gold at support levels & on breakouts above resistance and this strategy is working so well.
Bulls will want Gold to hold the 100 day moving average at 4390/86 today to target 4495/4500.
A break below 4382 however risks a slide to a buying opportunity at 4370/4365 & longs need stops below 4360.
Just be aware that a break below here can target another buying opportunity at 4340/4330 & longs need stops below 4320.
The Euro (EUR) extends losses for the second consecutive day against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, weighed by a cautious market mood as hopes of a swift end to Iran’s war wane and Oil prices climb. The EUR USD pair remains capped below 0.8550 after hitting two-week lows at 0.8536 on Monday.
In the absence of key macroeconomic releases in the UK or the Eurozone, geopolitical tensions are the main market driver on Tuesday. In that sense, Strategists at Rabobank caution that, although the Eurozone's economy seems to have weathered the higher energy prices and supply disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the breakdown of the US-Iran peace agreement "clearly implies downside risks to growth and upside inflation concerns,” posing a heavy weight on the Euro.
Technical Analysis: Bears remain in control while below 0.8550
EUR/GBP broke the ascending channel in late July, and confirmed a bearish reversal this week after slipping below a previous support at the 0.8550 area, which is now holding bulls. Momentum indicators endorse the bearish view, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering in the mid-30s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at slightly negative levels.
Initial support emerges at 0.8530 (July 24 low) and below here, a previous resistance area, around 0.8510. On the topside, the mentioned 0.8550 area should be broken to bring price action back to the previous ranges and shift the focus back to Monday's highs, at 0.8566 and the August 5 and 6 highs, near 0.8580.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.04%0.02%-0.01%-0.00%0.19%0.10%EUR-0.09%-0.04%-0.07%-0.08%-0.05%0.11%0.01%GBP-0.04%0.04%-0.04%-0.05%-0.02%0.15%0.05%JPY-0.02%0.07%0.04%-0.01%0.00%0.18%0.09%CAD0.00%0.08%0.05%0.01%0.03%0.19%0.09%AUD0.00%0.05%0.02%-0.01%-0.03%0.16%0.07%NZD-0.19%-0.11%-0.15%-0.18%-0.19%-0.16%-0.09%CHF-0.10%-0.01%-0.05%-0.09%-0.09%-0.07%0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Key Points:U.S. CPI is the primary FX catalyst as traders assess whether inflation will alter expectations for the Fed's September decision.UK second-quarter GDP is another important catalyst for GBP/USD and expectations surrounding Bank of England policy.DXY remains technically vulnerable below its key moving averages while defending rising trendline support near 99.42.EUR/USD is testing long-term resistance near 1.1556, with a breakout potentially strengthening its bullish structure.GBP/USD remains constructive above its rising trendline and moving averages while buyers challenge 1.3516 resistance.
US Dollar News: CPI Test Puts Fed and FX Policy in Focus As we enter August 11, attentions are on the anticipated July CPI data to be released on Wednesday. The result of this CPI data will ultimately decide if the Fed continues its pause on rate increases or if it resumes tightening in September. Economists expect a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the core CPI. Pocket appreciations, consistent with that forecast, would likely reflect inflation returning to the Fed’s 2% target. In June, the Fed’s preferred core inflation measure was reported at 3.3% with an increase from the previous year at 2.8%.
Prior expectations around interest rates have become unpredictable as the persistent inflation and regional energy shocks challenge Chair Warsh’s decision to keep rates the same in the last meeting, despite the three dissents for a rate increase. Additionally, President Trump’s Larry-Kudlow-like policies to undermine the Fed’s deliberations and autonomy by targeting a Fed Governor have added to the already increasing fundamental risks of the dollar.
There are also many uncertainties for the euro. Recent news out of Washington indicate that the yen was propped up by the recent dollar selling done by the U.S. Treasury. This has also sparked questions around currency coordination and if the U.S. Treasury was working to support the dollar while avoiding pressure on the bond market. For the ECB, that equates to staying the course for now following their last policy meeting in July.
Sterling is focusing on this week’s second-quarter UK GDP data. Most economists say the economy grew by around 0.4% in Q2. This would follow Q1’s 0.6% growth. Despite the challenges of the Iran situation and supply chain issues, activity remained resilient. The data will matter for the Bank of England as stronger data means the bank can keep an eye on inflation risks. The data will also affect the U.S. dollar, euro, and pound. Weaker figures would mean the BoE would do more to fight inflation. For now, U.S. CPI is the most important data for the currency markets. PPI and retail sales data are also important this week.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Holds Rising Trendline but Remains Below Key EMAs Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index currently trades at $99.88. The index is currently trading slightly above the rising trendline and a key horizontal support at $99.42. Although the index trades above the rising trendline and horizontal support, the index is currently trading below the 50-day EMA ($100.32) and the 100-day EMA ($99.91) and therefore bears still control the index. Buying pressure is apparent from the most recent candles defending the rising trendline. This, however, is not enough to be considered a bullish trend, and is currently lacking confirmation.
The RSI is currently at 41, which indicates that the selling pressure has diminished, however the RSI is still below the neutral mark at 50. Resistance for the index is expected at $100.36, $100.82, and $101.62. In the event the index falls, support is expected at $99.42. Below $99.42 is expected support at $98.76 and $98.18.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Tests Rising Trendline Near $1.3500 GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is trading around $1.3499, and is still trading above the rising trendline which supported the recovery since late July. The price is also still above the 50-period EMA at $1.3456 and the 100-period EMA at $1.3427, and although the price has been consolidating, the structure is still Bullish. Smaller bodies around the $1.3500 area suggest hesitation.
They are not large enough to indicate a reversal. The RSI is at 58, suggesting there is bullish momentum, which is healthy, but still not overbought. The areas of resistance for this momentum are $1.3516, $1.3559 and $1.3601. Moving in the other direction, support for this momentum is $1.3437, $1.3401 and $1.3343. In my opinion, if the GBP/USD is able to trade above the rising trendline, the Bullish setup is intact. I also believe that a break above $1.3516 could extend the move toward $1.3559.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Stalls Below Long-Term Trendline at $1.1556
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD currently stands at $1.1534. Price activity shows the Euro trading along the long term falling trendline from where multiple attempts to move higher have been capped. The 50 day moving average (MA) stands at $1.1496, while the 100 day MA stands at $1.1542, and the EUR/USD is positioned below the 50 day MA indicating recent resistance.
Recent price movement has shown that the buyers could be losing steam after the strong bounce from $1.1357, and resistance has been built at $1.1556. The RSI (relative strength index) has an open bullish setup at 58, although a clean break above is what is called for.
In the short term, $1.1556 is the first resistance level, followed by $1.1674 and then $1.1790. In the short term, $1.1455 is the first major support level with the next support level standing firmly at $1.135
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower on Tuesday, retreating to levels below $64.50, after rejection at seven-week highs around $66.60 on Monday. A more cautious market mood, as the peace negotiations between the US and Iran stall, and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are providing some support to the US Dollar.
Precious metals are struggling on Tuesday as the US and Iran fail to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which drives away hopes of a swift peace deal and pushes Oil prices higher.
Apart from that, Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack, affirmed on Monday that the current monetary policy "is not hurting the economy" and that the bank will have to hike rates more than once to bring inflation back to target. These comments triggered some hopes of a September rate hike, although investors await the US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) reading, due on Wednesday, for confirmation.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at the $63.30 area
XAG/USD has reached the target of the bullish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern in the $67.00 area, before correcting to the mid-range of the $64.00s. Momentum indicators in the daily chart have eased but remain within bullish territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator above zero.
Bears are likely to be tested at the previous resistance area, now turned support, around $63.30. A confirmation below here would shift the focus towards the August 6 and 7 low, around $61.00, ahead of the broken H&S neckline, now around $51.55.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the two-month high of $67.17 ahead of a more critical barrier formed by the 200-day SMA at $71.38 and the mid-June highs around $71.50.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD extended last week’s rally, but overbought conditions should confine intraday moves to a 1.3490–1.3535 band. On a 1–3 week horizon, the British Pound (GBP) could test 1.3555, though a sustained break above is seen as unlikely, with strong support now at 1.3460.
Pound upside persists but gains seen limited"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP soared last Friday and continued to rise yesterday, closing 0.10% higher at 1.3507. While GBP could rise further, the combination of slowing momentum and overbought conditions suggests any advance is likely to be contained within a 1.3490/1.3535 range."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on GBP last Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.3485), but we indicated that “it remains to be seen whether it can break above 1.3555.” On Wednesday (05 Aug, spot at 1.3450), we indicated that “upward momentum has since eased, but there is still a chance, albeit not a high one, for GBP to rise toward 1.3555.” Last Friday, GBP rose sharply, and yesterday, it rose further and printed a high of 1.3530. Upward momentum has improved slightly, and GBP could test 1.3555. Based on the prevailing momentum, a continued rise above this level appears unlikely. To keep the momentum going, GBP must hold above 1.3460 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.3410)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold – Chart Gold (XAU/USD) rebound probes support of rising channel near $4,360. Gold dropped from the $4,430 area where the top of the rising channel capped the latest up move. While the latest price action has suggested profit-taking, the price is well above the 50 and 100 EMAs in the $4,296 and $4,224 areas respectively, and is in a bullish structure. The RSI is briefly in the 55 area and has eased from an overbought condition, suggesting some pressure might have been released during the price rally.
Support is in the $4,360, $4,299 and $4,224 areas. $4,368, $4,430 and $4,492 are resistance. The current structure of the silver price suggests consolidation rather than a reversal as long as the lower channel boundary is in place.
For $4,360 support to hold, I expect the channel to remain intact and a move to $4,430 possible. However, a break of $4,360 support should open further correction to the $4,299 area.
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Gold and silver break long-running downtrends Macro headwinds ease as yields, dollar retreat Five-day gains unusually high relative to comparable periods Momentum indicators continue to favour further upside Gold and silver have surged over the past week, with the scale of the move far greater than what would typically be expected based on movements in traditional macro drivers. The question now is whether this is merely a bear market rally, or the beginning of a more sustained push back towards the January highs.
Macro Conditions Turn Less Hostile The latest breakout coincided with an easing in market conditions, providing something akin to a release valve for precious metals after a period of intense pressure. The US dollar index has fallen around 1.7% from its late-July peak, helped in part by the intervention episode involving the Japanese yen. US two and 10-year Treasury yields have also pulled back from recent highs, with the former largely reflecting the retracement in hawkish Fed pricing following the July FOMC.
Source: LSEG, FOREX.com
While debatable as to whether we’ve seen the highs for the big dollar and yields, the pullback likely contributed to the pop in precious metals.
Dollar Correlations Strengthen As seen in the correlation analysis below, both gold and silver retain an modest inverse relationship with the US dollar and Treasury yields, with the relationship generally strengthening over the past two months relative to longer-term levels.
Source: LSEG, FOREX.com
Over the past 60 sessions, gold’s correlation with DXY stood at -0.50 while silver’s was -0.51, above their respective three-year correlations of -0.39 and -0.30. The relationship with 10-year Treasury yields is also negative, although far weaker at -0.24 for gold and -0.19 for silver over the same 60-day window.
While traditional macro relationships remain in place, what stands out on this occasion is not the direction of the latest move, but its magnitude.
Gold and Silver Deliver Rare Moves Looking at how gold and silver have typically responded to moves in the DXY and US 10-year Treasury yields across comparable five-session windows over the past three years, what stands out about the this move is just how large it has been.
Source: LSEG, FOREX.com
Gold has surged 8.6% over the past five trading sessions, compared with a model-implied gain of just 0.5%. The resulting macro-adjusted move ranks in the 99.9th percentile of comparable five-session periods over the past three years. Incredibly rare.
Silver has seen an even larger gain of 11.2%, against a model-implied rise of 0.9%, putting its macro-adjusted move in the 96.4th percentile over the same three-year period.
Whether the break of long-standing downtrends after a period of compression, a growing belief among traders that yields and the dollar may have peaked for now, or something else entirely, the scale of the moves have been highly unusual.
Gold Bulls Target 200DMA
Source: TradingView
As written in a separate analysis note on Monday, the next upside barrier to gold’s advance stood at $4,367, a level that had previously acted as both support and resistance. As seen above, the price broke cleanly above it late Monday, touching the 100-day simple moving average before extending the move today.
Those two levels now become the immediate ones of note on the downside, with the 200-day moving average the next key level overhead, sitting around the psychologically important $4,500 per ounce level.
With RSI 14 continuing to trend higher above 50, upside momentum continues to build. That message is reinforced by MACD, which has staged a bullish crossover and flipped positive. Combined, it favours buying pullbacks and breakouts, rather than playing it from the short-side.
As such, pullbacks towards either the 100-day moving average or $4,367 offer potential long setups, allowing for a stop to be placed underneath either for protection against reversal. Initial targets include the 200-day simple average, followed by $4,580, $4,650 and $4,775, all of which acted as resistance earlier this year.
If gold was to reverse back beneath $4,367, it would give bulls some food for thought, raising the risk of a period of sideways range trade rather than an extension of the bullish breakout.
Silver Breakout Brings $71 Into View
Source: TradingView
While the move doesn’t look as spectacular on the silver chart, the breakout earlier this week saw the price break above the 50-day simple moving average, the downtrend running from the record high set earlier this year, and horizontal resistance at $63.29. The price has since gone on with the move, pushing higher towards resistance at $67. Those two levels are now the immediate focus for anyone trading silver.
The message from the oscillators is bullish. RSI 14 continues to trend higher and is not yet overbought, sitting around 64. That message is confirmed by MACD, which has staged a bullish crossover and flipped positive, indicating upside momentum is building. Combined, that favours buying dips and bullish breakouts.
Pullbacks towards $63.29 would provide a potential entry for those contemplating longs, allowing for stops to be placed beneath it, the downtrend running from the January high, or the 50-day simple moving average, depending on desired risk-reward. If the price does not pull back and instead breaks above $67 and holds there, that too creates a long setup, allowing for entry above with a stop beneath for protection. Upside targets would include the 100-day simple moving average, followed by $71, where the 200-day simple moving average coincides with resistance that capped the price in June.
A break above the 200-day simple moving average would be particularly interesting, especially as the move over the past few days comes from what resembles a long-running falling wedge. The structure is not perfect, with both sides tested on only a few separate occasions, but it nonetheless suggests there is a risk we could see a resumption of the broader bullish trend seen earlier this year.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note EUR/USD has stalled after last week’s surge, with flat momentum pointing to a 1.1530–1.1560 intraday range. For the next 1–3 weeks, the Euro’s upside hurdle has risen, requiring a close above 1.1580 to target 1.1600 and beyond, while strong support has shifted up to 1.1515.
Euro consolidates below 1.1580 barrier"24-HOUR VIEW: Having surged to a high of 1.1580 last Friday, EUR traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.1539 and 1.1569 yesterday. EUR closed slightly lower by 0.14% at 1.1542. Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and today, we expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1530 and 1.1560."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: The following is from our latest update from last Friday: “Our most recent narrative was from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), when we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” Over the past few days, EUR tested 1.1560 thrice but failed to break above. Upward momentum is starting to slow, and a break below 1.1495 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that EUR has likely entered a range-trading phase.” EUR subsequently popped to a high of 1.1580 before closing at 1.1558. There has been no significant increase in upward momentum, and the hurdle for further gains has risen, with EUR needing to close above 1.1580 before a move to 1.1600 and beyond can be expected. The ‘strong support’ level is now at 1.1515 instead of 1.1495."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The gold price outlook is turning cautious as a strong rally into a decade-long trendline runs into slowing momentum and an overbought daily RSI. Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, breaks down gold's technical picture and the catalysts that could shape its next major move.
She examines why the daily RSI reaching overbought territory raises near-term pullback risk even as gold's broader trend stays bullish above a near ten-year trendline. She also weighs how the upcoming U.S. CPI report and Federal Reserve rate expectations could tip the balance, alongside persistent geopolitical risk across Europe.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by Forex.com.
