Key Points:Softer U.S. CPI has reduced pressure for additional Fed tightening, making PPI the next major inflation test for the dollar.U.S. PPI could reshape September Fed expectations if producer inflation differs materially from the recent CPI signal.EUR/USD has been rejected near $1.1569 trendline resistance, putting the $1.1500 support area back in focus.DXY is attempting to recover from $99.42 trendline support but still needs to clear its 50-day EMA near $100.29.GBP/USD has slipped below the $1.3515 pivot, with the $1.3474–$1.3437 area becoming the key downside support zone.
In this article:GBP/USD
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GBP/USD ForecastEUR/USD
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EUR/USD ForecastUS Dollar News: PPI and UK GDP Reshape FX Outlook Today’s main driver of the US dollar is the reassessment of FED policy after the soft US consumer inflation numbers for July. The headline CPI increased by only 0.1% (month on month) and annual inflation slowed down to 3.4%, further dampening expectations for an FED rate hike in September. The focus now is on the release of the PPI (Production Price Index) scheduled for Thursday. Another soft reading will support the FED’s decision to pause. The FED will be more relaxed with higher inflation concerns if the PPI numbers show persistence in pipeline inflation.
The euro is trading in an environment reflective of mixed fundamentals. The current holding patterns from the ECB after the policy unchanged announcement in July, together with some stabilization of the eurozone activity in manufacturing, are in place. The eonjomy’s lingering stress from the Middle East energy crisis and weak household demand, are still evident. Investors will be watching to see if the softer US inflation narrows the policy gap more between the FED and ECB, which is a major currency driver.
Sterling got a new domestic catalyst from the release of the second quarter UK GDP that showed an expansion of 0.4% over the previous quarter. This was following the 0.6% expansion in the first quarter. The data provides some evidence that the expansion of the UK economy was sustained throughout the period of elevated energy costs and geopolitical tensions.
For the Bank of England, stronger growth makes policy more difficult. Inflation is starting to fall, but Energy costs means it could easily get worse again. Luckily for them, strong activity gives policymakers the ability to focus on price stability, effects of which should be seen over time.
For August 13, the immediate FX focus is U.S. PPI. Weaker PPI could strengthen the possibility of a longer pause from the Fed, while higher PPI could make a more hawkish September scenario likely.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Attempts Recovery Above $99.42 Trendline Support Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The U.S. Dollar Index is currently at $100.03, attempting to climb above the rising trendline and horizontal support at $99.42 that had previously acted as repeated support. Price has climbed above the 100 day EMA at $99.91; however, the 50 day EMA at $100.29 still acts as resistance. Recent candles show some buying pressure, but the index has yet to break above the resistance cluster to confirm the start of a stronger recovery.
RSI is around 44, on the path to recovery after being in weaker territory, but continues to be below 50. Resistance zones are at $100.06, $100.29, and $100.82. For support zones, we have $99.42, $98.76, and $98.18. From my perspective, the recovery continues to be valid as long as support is found above the trend line. If support is found above $100.29, I would lean more toward an extension to $100.82.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Breaks Below $1.3515 Pivot as Momentum Weakens GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is trading at $1.3483 and has broken below the $1.3515 pivot area and the trendline that provided support to the recent movement. While price is above the 50 EMA at $1.3474, and the 100 EMA at $1.3443, the breakdown of the recovery structure has not occurred. The momentum has definitely shifted to the downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved down to around 46 and recently has lost bullish pressure as price was rejected from the $1.3515-$1.3540 area. Price movement resistance can be expected at $1.3515, $1.3559, $1.3601, while support can be expected at $1.3474 with stronger support expected at $1.3437, $1.3401, and $1.3343. Price action in GBP/USD has to break $1.3515 in order to retain the bullish scenario. Without that, emphasis will remain focused on the $1.3437-$1.3474zone.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Rejected at Descending Trendline Near $1.1570 EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Currently at $1.1520 on the 4 hour chart, EUR/USD rejected the descending trendline again at $1.1569. The market is now heading down towards the 50 EMA at $1.1525, where the 100 EMA at $1.1499 is the next major dynamic support. The latest candles show the loss of upside momentum, with RSI heading down to 42, and the trendline, at the same time, showing loss of bullish momentum.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.1569, $1.1621, and $1.1674. On the other hand, $1.1500 and $1.1456 are the key support levels. In my opinion, the market remains bearish as long as it is trading below the descending trendline. A break above $1.1569 will put the bullish market back in play. However, if the market falls beneath $1.1500, the $1.1456 level may become active.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
USD/JPY rose to 159.53 on Thursday, returning towards the 160.00 area as the Japanese yen weakened. The move has kept markets on alert for possible further intervention by the authorities amid persistent currency weakness.
Fundamental factors continue to weigh on the yen: a wide interest rate differential, rising fiscal risks, and elevated energy and import costs.
The yen failed to gain much traction even after softer US inflation data, which eased pressure on the Federal Reserve and reduced the likelihood of an imminent rate hike.
In Japan, producer prices rose 7.2% year-on-year in July, slightly below the 7.3% recorded in June and the 7.4% forecast. At the same time, the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from the July meeting noted growing risks of accelerating inflation, with one board member acknowledging that the pace of rate hikes could quicken.
Technical Analysis
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed an upward move to 159.52. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. An upside breakout would open the way for a move higher to at least 160.50. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and trending upward towards 80, indicating short-term upside momentum.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed an upward move to 159.52. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. An upside breakout would open the way for a move higher to at least 160.50. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and trending upward towards 80, indicating short-term upside momentum.
Conclusion USD/JPY has moved back into positive territory as the yen’s post-intervention gains continue to fade. Despite softer US inflation data reducing pressure on the Fed, the yen has failed to capitalise, underscoring the persistent fundamental headwinds – interest rate differentials, fiscal risks, and high energy costs – that continue to weigh on the currency. Domestic producer price data came in slightly below expectations, but the Bank of Japan’s July meeting summary pointed to rising inflation risks and the potential for faster rate hikes. Technically, USD/JPY appears poised for further upside towards 160.50, with the market remaining on high alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities as the pair approaches the key 160.00 level.
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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note GBP/USD briefly traded above 1.3535 to 1.3540 before slipping back to close at 1.3496. Intraday, the pair is seen range-trading between 1.3475 and 1.3525. Over 1–3 weeks, they maintain a mildly constructive view, with scope to test 1.3555 but limited prospects for sustained gains beyond that level.
Pound-Dollar holds in tight consolidation band"24-HOUR VIEW: While we indicated yesterday that “there is a chance for GBP to edge higher,” we pointed out that “any advance is likely to be contained within a 1.3490/1.3535 range.” During the early NY session, GBP rose briefly above 1.3535, printing a high of 1.3540 before dropping back down to a low of 1.3488. GBP closed little changed at 1.3496 (-0.09%). The current price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase, most likely between 1.3475 and 1.3525."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a slightly positive GBP view since last Monday. In our most recent narrative from Tuesday (11 Aug, spot at 1.3510), we indicated that while GBP “could test 1.3555, based on the prevailing momentum, a continued rise above this level appears unlikely.” Yesterday, GBP rose briefly to 1.3540 before pulling back to close at 1.3496 (-0.09%). Upward momentum is starting to slow, and a breach of 1.3460 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that GBP has entered a range-trading phase."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold – Chart Gold is currently at $4,379 for the day chart. With a strong recovery from the July lows, price is breaking above both the 50-day EMA at $4,223 and the 100-day EMA at $4,322. An improvement of both of these EMAs shows an improvement in medium-term momentum. The current rally is also reaching the resistance at $4,448, which is also the upper boundary of the current retracement structure.
Recent candlesticks have been forming with some hesitation below this level. This is more of a profit taking consolidation range as opposed to a bearish reversal.
RSI is in the strong bull zone at 65. Immediate resistance is at $4,448 with $4,575 and $4,666 as the next areas of resistance. First meaningful support comes in at $4,332 with $4,262 and $4,205 as the next areas. In addition, price holding above $4,332 maintains the recovery structure while a break above $4,448 gives a bullish continuation towards $4,575.
USD/JPY rose to 159.53 on Thursday, returning towards the 160.00 area as the Japanese yen weakened. The move has kept markets on alert for possible further intervention by the authorities amid persistent currency weakness.
Fundamental factors continue to weigh on the yen: a wide interest rate differential, rising fiscal risks, and elevated energy and import costs.
The yen failed to gain much traction even after softer US inflation data, which eased pressure on the Federal Reserve and reduced the likelihood of an imminent rate hike.
In Japan, producer prices rose 7.2% year-on-year in July, slightly below the 7.3% recorded in June and the 7.4% forecast. At the same time, the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from the July meeting noted growing risks of accelerating inflation, with one board member acknowledging that the pace of rate hikes could quicken.
Technical analysis
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed an upward move to 159.52. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. An upside breakout would open the way for a move higher to at least 160.50. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and trending upward towards 80, indicating short-term upside momentum.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed an upward move to 159.52. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. An upside breakout would open the way for a move higher to at least 160.50. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and trending upward towards 80, indicating short-term upside momentum.
ConclusionUSD/JPY has moved back into positive territory as the yen’s post-intervention gains continue to fade. Despite softer US inflation data reducing pressure on the Fed, the yen has failed to capitalise, underscoring the persistent fundamental headwinds – interest rate differentials, fiscal risks, and high energy costs – that continue to weigh on the currency. Domestic producer price data came in slightly below expectations, but the Bank of Japan’s July meeting summary pointed to rising inflation risks and the potential for faster rate hikes. Technically, USD/JPY appears poised for further upside towards 160.50, with the market remaining on high alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities as the pair approaches the key 160.00 level.
TD Securities’ Bart Melek notes Gold extended gains after the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations, reinforcing a dovish narrative around Fed Chair Warsh. With prices near $4,434/oz and resistance just below $4,500/oz, Melek sees Gold staying near the upper end of a higher trading range. However, he argues it is still premature to call for a breakout toward $5,000/oz.
Fed path keeps gold contained"With upside momentum driving prices to $4,434/oz and CTA buy triggers sitting near $4,468/ oz, the yellow metal may soon challenge resistance just below $4,500/oz."
"A decisive move above that level would likely require stronger confirmation that the Fed will not raise rates this year."
"As a result, gold will likely remain near the upper end of its current trading range, which has shifted meaningfully higher since July, though it is still too early to call for a breakout toward $5,000/oz."
"Until then, if it happens at all, the gold market should stay in the upper bound of the recent higher trading range."
"If no new inflation pressures materialize, gold is off to the races and a 5-handle is a very real possibility."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Pound-New Zealand Dollar could extend above NZ$2.30 if UK growth holds firm, although stronger RBNZ rate expectations may help the Kiwi recover. The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate climbed to a two-week high on Thursday as deteriorating global risk appetite weighed on the risk-sensitive ‘Kiwi’.
At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading around NZ$2.3044, up approximately 0.3% from Wednesday's opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.3051 (+0.30%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.968098 (+0.22%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.586233 (-0.27%)
DAILY RECAP:
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came under pressure as a deterioration in global risk sentiment weighed on the risk-sensitive currency.
Investor confidence weakened amid growing concerns that US-Iran ceasefire negotiations had reached an impasse.
Despite previous optimism from US officials that an agreement could be days away, recent rhetoric from Tehran and remarks from US President Donald Trump suggested the two sides remained at odds in several areas.
The prospect of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed global oil prices back towards US$90 per barrel and weighed on the ‘Kiwi’ as traders rotated away from higher-risk assets and towards traditional safe havens.
Meanwhile, while the Pound (GBP) appreciated against the New Zealand Dollar, it traded sideways against most of its other major peers.
In the continued absence of notable UK economic releases, Sterling struggled to find fresh impetus.
GBP sentiment was also subdued by analysis from the Verdant thinktank suggesting that multiple heatwaves have cost the UK economy US$4bn in lost output so far this year.
Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: Improving Risk Appetite to Underpin the ‘Kiwi’? Looking ahead, the UK's latest GDP figures are expected to provide the next major catalyst for the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate.
The preliminary estimate for second-quarter growth is forecast to show the UK economy expanded by 0.4%, down from 0.6% in the first quarter.
Although slower than at the start of the year, a 0.4% expansion would still represent a healthy pace of growth and could extend Sterling's upside if investors see it as encouraging the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy later this year.
Meanwhile, the ‘Kiwi’ could receive support if an increase in New Zealand business inflation expectations strengthens Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike bets.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD briefly spiked to 1.1562 on the US CPI release before reversing to 1.1524. They now see further pullback risks contained within 1.1510–1.1545 intraday and judge that upward momentum has faded, with the pair likely to range-trade between 1.1480 and 1.1580 over the coming 1–3 weeks.
Euro-Dollar momentum fades into consolidation"24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR traded in a quiet manner two days ago and closed largely unchanged at 1.1540, we highlighted the following yesterday: “The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect EUR to trade between 1.1530 and 1.1560. That said, should EUR break above 1.1560, it could trigger a quick rise toward 1.1580.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. EUR spiked to a high of 1.1562 during the NY session and then pulled back sharply to close slightly lower at 1.1524 (-0.14%). Further pullback is not ruled out, but given that downward momentum has not increased significantly, any decline is likely to be contained within a 1.1510/1.1545 range."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Two days ago (11 Aug, spot at 1.1545), we highlighted that “the hurdle for further gains has risen,” and EUR “must close above 1.1580 before a move to 1.1600 and beyond can be expected." Yesterday, EUR rose briefly to 1.1562 and then pulled back to a low of 1.1519. Although our ‘strong support’ level at 1.1515 has not been breached yet, upward momentum has largely faded. EUR appears to have entered a range-trading phase. For the time being, we expect EUR to trade within a 1.1480/1.1580 range."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades 0.17% lower at around 0.7050 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair extends Wednesday’s correction, which started after revisiting the two-month high near 0.7090, as financial markets remain unconvinced by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish tone.
On Tuesday, the RBA left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, and explicitly said that the central bank won’t hesitate to raise interest rates further, citing upside inflation risks.
Contrary to the RBA’s hawkish remarks, financial markets believe that the RBA’s appetite to tighten monetary conditions appears very weak.
Analysts at Standard Chartered note that, at the press conference, Governor Bullock “talked up the uncertainty around the RBA’s central forecasts and did not rule out the need for more policy tightening in the immediate future if upside inflation risks materialise.”
Despite this hawkish nuance, Standard Chartered emphasises that “our base case remains no more RBA rate hikes in the foreseeable future.” The bank cautions, however, that “the risk to our view is skewed towards a hike in Q4 if demand does not slow sufficiently or if energy prices revisit recent highs, exacerbating both capacity and price pressures.”
Ultimately, “easing labour-market conditions, if sustained, should help contain underlying wage and price pressures in the economy,” supporting their view that further tightening is not the central scenario even as the RBA keeps its options open," Standard Chartered added.
Meanwhile, an upbeat US Dollar, despite traders paring back hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets for the September meeting, is also hurting the Aussie pair.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD trades lower at around 0.7050, but is holding a constructive bullish bias as it remains within an upward parallel channel. The pair is trading above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7024, which suggests underlying demand, while the channel top near 0.7077 caps the immediate topside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.69 stays in positive territory, hinting that bullish momentum is intact though not overstretched.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA at 0.7024, ahead of the lower boundary of the rising channel around 0.6951, with a deeper structural floor toward 0.6866. On the topside, a sustained break above the channel resistance at 0.7077 would open the way for further gains within the broader ascending structure. Above 0.7077, major hurdles are the round-level resistance at 0.7100, followed by the June 5 high at 0.7144.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator RBA Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.
The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1520 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. US inflation cooled on a year-over-year basis for a second straight month, easing pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates as soon as next month. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for July is due later on Thursday.
Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revealed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% YoY in July, compared to 3.5% in the previous reading. Additionally, the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 2.5% YoY in July, versus 2.6% prior. Both readings came in line with expectations.
Traders further cut the chance for a September Fed rate hike, lowering the odds to 40%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Fed officials will get August CPI and jobs reports before their September meeting.
Nonetheless, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and create a headwind for the major pair. Reuters reported that the US and Iran remain at loggerheads over efforts to agree a permanent end to the war in the Gulf. A senior Iranian official said that there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and define a time frame to implement it.
Euro holds steady as post-FOMC consolidation persistsAnalysts at Scotiabank observe that the Euro is “entering Wednesday’s NA session flat vs. the USD while showing a mixed performance against the G10 currencies overall.” They note that the single currency “has spent much of August consolidating within a tight, flat range, lacking a catalyst in the period following the FOMC meeting in late July,” underscoring the absence of a clear directional driver in recent trading.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMA In the daily chart, EUR/USD holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the near-term bias bearish despite a modestly constructive tone in momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 56. Price remains above the 20-day Bollinger middle band SMA, suggesting downside is cushioned for now, while the upper Bollinger band near marks a broader cap on recovery attempts.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns at the 100-day SMA at 1.1565, ahead of the upper Bollinger band around 1.1612, where selling interest could strengthen if tested. On the downside, initial support is located at the 1.1500 psychological level, followed by the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 1.1475. A deeper bearish extension is likely to target the lower Bollinger band near 1.13375 if the current floor gives way.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
TL;DR: EUR/USD has nearly everything bulls could ask for — a weaker Dollar, fading Fed hike bets, and rising ECB hike odds — yet the pair hasn’t broken out, because Euro itself isn’t confirming the move broadly across its other crosses.
The Dollar Has Given EUR/USD Every Reason to Rise EUR/USD has been handed almost everything bulls could reasonably ask for over the past week. July payrolls unexpectedly contracted, forcing markets to scale back Fed tightening bets. July CPI then showed core inflation returning to 2.5%, back at its pre-Iran-war level. September Fed hold probability has consequently risen from around 45% a week ago to roughly 60%. The Dollar has given EUR/USD plenty of room to move higher.
The Euro Side Should Be Helping Too Renewed oil surge has pushed the expected probability of a September ECB hike above 90%, up from around 70% a month earlier. The obvious counterargument is that the ECB may be making a policy mistake by tightening into weak growth, eventually turning higher rates into a negative for the Euro. Yet the latest activity data don’t provide much support for that conclusion — the Eurozone PMI Composite strengthened for a second straight month in July, with Germany also showing improvement. For now at least, the economy doesn’t look weak enough to explain the Euro’s reluctance to rally.
So What’s Actually Holding EUR/USD Back? There may not be one hidden macro catalyst. The more telling explanation is simpler: Dollar weakness is doing its part, but the Euro itself isn’t attracting enough broad demand to confirm the move. EUR/USD can rise because the Dollar falls, but a durable breakout becomes much easier when the Euro is also strengthening across crosses. So far, that confirmation is missing.
That puts EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, and EUR/CAD under the spotlight. Declines in those crosses would suggest Euro weakness is broadening beneath the surface and could eventually drag EUR/USD lower even if Fed expectations remain relatively Dollar-negative. Conversely, stabilization or recovery across Euro crosses would make EUR/USD’s current hesitation easier to dismiss as consolidation before another push higher. The question is therefore becoming less about whether the Dollar has weakened enough, and more about whether the Euro can finally take advantage.
ActionForex’s Technical View on EUR/USD The technical picture captures that uncertainty neatly. The base case remains that the broader decline from 1.2081 completed a three-wave correction at 1.1323, after support emerged around the 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081, at 1.1353. Bullish divergence in the daily MACD reinforces that interpretation.
But EUR/USD still has to break the 1.1621 cluster resistance — the 38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323, at 1.1613 — decisively. A sustained move through that zone would provide the confirmation price action has so far lacked, strengthening the case that the rebound from 1.1323 is developing into something larger.
Until then, failure matters. Rejection from 1.1613/21, followed by a break of 1.1481, would flip the interpretation, suggesting the rebound from 1.1323 was only corrective and that the larger decline from 1.2081 is ready to resume through 1.1323.
EUR/USD still has a bullish setup, but not yet a bullish confirmation. The Dollar has opened the door; now the Euro has to walk through it.
Key Takeaways September Fed hold odds have risen from 45% to 60% in a week, driven by contracting payrolls and core CPI returning to its pre-war 2.5% level. September ECB hike odds have risen above 90% on renewed oil strength, with Eurozone PMI data showing no evidence of growth weak enough to undercut that case. EUR/USD’s stalled breakout likely reflects a lack of confirmation from Euro crosses (EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD) rather than any single hidden catalyst. A decisive break above the 1.1613-1.1621 resistance cluster would confirm the rebound from 1.1323 is developing into a larger move higher. Rejection at 1.1613/21 followed by a break of 1.1481 would instead suggest the rebound was only corrective, reopening the broader decline from 1.2081 toward 1.1323.
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EUR/JPY extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around 183.60 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.11 reinforces a neutral-to-soft momentum backdrop rather than a decisive directional push.
The EUR/JPY cross is retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while trading just above the nine-day EMA. This split in moving averages suggests the currency cross is capped by medium-term trend resistance despite nearby short-term support.
The EUR/JPY cross faces immediate support at its nine-day Exponential Moving Average of 183.49. A decisive break below this short-term indicator would strengthen the prevailing bearish bias, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its eight-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3. If downward momentum continues, the next key technical target lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.
A turn to the upside would see EUR/JPY cross head toward primary resistance at its 50-day EMA near 184.51. Clearing this medium-term hurdle could signal a broader bullish resurgence, opening the path for the pair to retest the area surrounding its all-time peak of 187.95 set on April 17.
Analysts at Scotiabank note that, while "there have been no comments from FinMin Katayama or ViceMin Mimuri," local media coverage is increasingly "highlighting the potential for tension between US officials and Japan’s government as the US pushes for BoJ tightening."
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.00%-0.01%-0.08%0.03%0.17%0.46%0.03%EUR0.00%0.00%-0.06%0.00%0.17%0.44%0.03%GBP0.00%-0.01%-0.06%0.00%0.19%0.44%0.01%JPY0.08%0.06%0.06%0.09%0.24%0.48%0.08%CAD-0.03%-0.00%-0.01%-0.09%0.15%0.42%-0.01%AUD-0.17%-0.17%-0.19%-0.24%-0.15%0.28%-0.15%NZD-0.46%-0.44%-0.44%-0.48%-0.42%-0.28%-0.39%CHF-0.03%-0.03%-0.01%-0.08%0.00%0.15%0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,662.15 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,682.63 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 101,033.60 per tola from PHP 101,272.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,662.15
10 Grams
86,621.59
Tola
101,033.60
Troy Ounce
269,423.10
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 530.57 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 532.22 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,188.48 per tola from SAR 6,207.66 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
530.57
10 Grams
5,305.73
Tola
6,188.48
Troy Ounce
16,503.55
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 519.20 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 520.58 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 6,055.84 per tola from AED 6,071.92 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
519.20
10 Grams
5,191.99
Tola
6,055.84
Troy Ounce
16,148.51
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,279.89 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,392.88 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 458,160.80 per tola from PKR 459,470.80 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,279.89
10 Grams
392,806.90
Tola
458,160.80
Troy Ounce
1,221,742.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 578.10 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 579.45 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,742.87 per tola from MYR 6,758.55 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
578.10
10 Grams
5,780.89
Tola
6,742.87
Troy Ounce
17,981.09
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,485.65 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,516.60 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 157,303.50 per tola from INR 157,655.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,485.65
10 Grams
134,862.00
Tola
157,303.50
Troy Ounce
419,454.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory near 112.35 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as traders are on high alert for further intervention from authorities. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to speak later on Friday.
Goldman Sachs Research strategist Karen Fishman said that the JPY’s gains are now fading as the intervention is “not a sustainable fix ... ultimately just buys some time.”
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) highlighted growing risks of accelerating inflation in its summary of opinions from the July meeting, with one board member suggesting that the pace of interest rate hikes could accelerate. The BoJ may consider an additional interest rate increase at its next September policy meeting, following a hike in June, in response to rising risks of higher inflation, according to Jiji.
Rare US-Japan FX action underscores shifting Yen dynamicsDBS Group Research underscores the unusual nature of the latest currency support measures, noting that “co-ordinated FX intervention between the US and Japan is rare, with the last joint intervention occurring 15 years ago to weaken an excessively over-valued JPY in the aftermath of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.” The team highlights that this historical precedent throws the current episode into sharper relief, with policymakers now deploying similarly uncommon tools in response to pronounced Yen weakness rather than strength.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY leans into a bearish near-term bias as it slips back under the Bollinger Bands 20-period simple moving average and remains capped by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price is still comfortably above the Bollinger lower band, so the broader uptrend is not yet threatened, but the latest Relative Strength Index (14) reading at 48.96 suggests momentum has turned neutral-to-soft after the recent rally stalled near the upper band zone.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the Bollinger Bands 20-period SMA middle line around 112.70, followed by the 100-day SMA at 112.90. A sustained break above these levels would be needed to re-open the path toward the July 16 high of 113.88, en route to the upper Bollinger band near 115.45.
On the downside, the primary support to watch sits at the August 10 low of 111.63. The next contention level to watch is the August 7 low of 110.77, followed by the Bollinger lower band at 110.00, where a decisive move would hint at a deeper corrective phase within the broader trend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The Dollar index has pulled itself up despite the softer CPI release yesterday, indicating near-term bullishness on a break above 100. That said, the Euro, EURJPY, Aussie, and Pound could decline towards 1.15 and lower, 183/182, 0.70/69 and 1.33, respectively, in the near term. USDJPY can aim for 160-161 while above 159. EURINR is holding below resistance near 110.30 and can soon fall towards 109-108. Aussie and Pound can test 0.71 and 1.3550 before being rejected. USDCNY can target 6.70 in the medium term. USDINR could trade below resistance at 95.50 for now. A range trade between 95.50 and 95.10 looks likely.
The US Treasury Yields remain lower. They have room to test their support and then resume their broader uptrend eventually. Data release yesterday showed that the US Headline CPI has come down sharply to 3.3% (YoY) in July from 3.46% in June. The German Yields have bounced back from their lows. Supports are there to limit their downside. Outlook remains bullish, and the yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI has come back into the narrow range. We retain our bearish view to see a downside break of this range.
Global equities remain mixed. Dow is drifting lower towards 53000 while continuing to trade within the broader 53000-55000 range. DAX remains constructive and can rise towards 27000-27500 despite struggling to sustain above 26500. Nifty has shown a good recovery from recent lows and can move higher towards 24500 and above while support near 24350-24300 holds. Nikkei has turned strongly bullish after breaking above 68000 and can extend its rally towards 70000. Shanghai remains near key resistance around 3970, with a break higher opening the way towards 4050, while failure to break above could lead to a pullback towards 3900-3850.
Commodities remain mixed, with crude prices consolidating within broad ranges of $80-$95 for Brent and $75-$90 for WTI. Gold remains bullish and can break above $4500 to rise towards $4600-$4650, while Silver can extend its gains towards $70-$75. Copper remains weak and can decline further towards $6.50-$6.45. Natural Gas continues to strengthen and can rise towards $2.80-$3.00 while holding above the key support near $2.60.
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The Japanese yen continued its recent retreat, reaching its lowest level since July 31 as the recent US intervention backfired. The USD/JPY pair rose to 159.43, up by 2.72% from its lowest level this month.
The USD/JPY pair crashed hard earlier this month, reaching its lowest level since May, after the Donald Trump administration made its biggest intervention in years. It did that by converting some of its euro holdings into the Japanese yen, a move that caught European officials offguard.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) also intervened, pumping billions of dollars to yen buying. This happened after the pair jumped to 163.96, its highest level in decades.
The Trymp administration intervened to prevent the BoJ from intensifying its US government bond sales, which would have driven yields higher. Already, the 30-year yield has remained above 5% for months. And this week, the US government sold ten-year bonds at the highest yield in years.
Historically, forex market interventions tend to have a short-term impact on the currency. A good example of this is how the Japanese yen jumped on April 30th after the BoJ intervened and then resumed its downward trend.
The main issue facing the Japanese yen is that the Bank of Japan maintains low interest rates compared to the Federal Reserve. It recently hiked rates to 1%, the highest level in decades. This rate, however, is much lower than the US, which has remained between 3.50% and 3.75% this year.
The implication of this is that the USD/JPY has become a carry top carry trade pair. A carry trade is a situation where investors borrow from a low interest country and invests in a high interest rate one. In this case, they are borrowing from Japan and investing in the US.
As such, analysts believe that the Japanese yen will only have a sustained uptrend against the US when the BoJ hikes interest rates further. The BoJ has hinted that it may hike rates further this year. A Polymarket poll shows that odds of a 25 basis point hike in September have jumped to 68%.
Separately, the USD/JPY pair reacted mildly to the latest US nonfarm payrolls and consumer inflation data. The jobs report showed that the US economy lost 23k jobs in July, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%. Another report released on Wednesday showed that the US inflation softened a bit in July. These numbers mean that the Fed will maintain rates unchanged this year.
USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the USD to JPY pair has rebounded in the past two weeks as the impact of the intervention fades. It has now jumped to 159.46, and is attempting to cross the 25-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
The Average Directional Index (ADX) has continued rising and moved to 37, the highest level in months, a sign that the uptrend is continuing. Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the pair is bullish, with the next key target to watch being 160. A move above that level will point to more upside.
The only caveat to remember is that the BoJ and the US have hinted at possible interventions, meaning that these gains can easily reverse.
The GBP/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the second consecutive day and trades below the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Thursday amid modest US Dollar (USD) strength. The downside potential, however, seems limited as traders might opt to wait for the UK macro data dump, including the Q2 GDP report, before placing directional bets.
In the meantime, inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices underpin prospects for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties due to the US-Iran standoff, assists the USD in building on the previous day's bounce from the post-CPI swing low and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices, barring the overnight bullish spike, have been oscillating in a one-week-old range. This might be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the rally since late July. Moreover, the GBP/USD pair maintains a mildly bullish near-term bias above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.
However, momentum indicators are less supportive. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slipping slightly below zero. This, in turn, hints at an extension of the consolidative price action rather than strong near-term directional conviction, warranting caution for aggressive traders.
Meanwhile, further weakness below the current pivot area around 1.3491 might prompt some technical selling and make spot prices vulnerable to accelerating the fall to the 100-period SMA near 1.3415. A sustained defence of these supports would keep the bullish bias intact, while a clean break below would expose a deeper corrective phase for the GBP/USD pair on the four-hour chart.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Gold (XAU/USD) retreats after touching a fresh high since June 5, around the $4,450 area, during the Asian session on Thursday and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily range. The immediate market reaction to signs of moderating US inflation seems to have faded amid expectations that higher energy prices will rekindle inflationary pressures. Furthermore, bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver at least one interest rate hike by the end of this year prompt some profit-taking and drive flows away from the non-yielding bullion.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased in line with market expectations, from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY in July. Adding to this, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% and 2.5% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively, matching consensus estimates. This comes on top of last Friday's weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and gives the Fed more room to hold interest rates steady in September, which offered some support to gold.
Investors, however, remain worried about inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices due to the US-Iran standoff. In fact, President Donald Trump again claimed that the US has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has pledged to keep the vital waterway closed until all its demands are met. Moreover, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen escalated attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, targeting Saudi ships. This has led to increased war-risk premiums, which continue to lend some support to crude oil prices.
This continues to fuel inflation fears and backs the case for some Fed tightening. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in a nearly 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in 2026. This, in turn, helps the US Dollar (USD) build on the previous day's bounce from the post-CPI swing low and exerts some downward pressure on the commodity. However, some follow-through selling below the $4,400 mark is needed to back the case for a meaningful corrective decline in the Gold price.
Traders now look forward to Thursday's US economic docket, featuring the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. This, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will drive USD demand and provide some impetus to the precious metal. Apart from this, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis might continue to infuse volatility across global financial markets and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the Gold price.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical AnalysisThe previous day's close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a subsequent move beyond the 50% retracement level of the April-June downfall favor XAU/USD bulls. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains elevated, reinforcing constructive momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.44 hovers near overbought territory, hinting that upside pressure persists but may be nearing a stretched condition.
Hence, strength beyond the daily swing high might confront initial resistance near the 200-day SMA at $4,502. This is closely followed by the 61.8% retracement at $4,525.18, above which the Gold price could climb to the next barriers at $4,683 and $4,885. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100-day SMA at $4,387, with lower cushions seen at the 38.2% Fibo. at $4,302 and the 23.6% level at $4,164.38, before a more significant structural floor emerges near $3,941.47.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Gold is reverting to the $4,400 level in Asia on Thursday after facing rejection at $4,450 or fresh ten-week highs earlier in the session.
Attention now turns to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for more signs of cooling inflation, particularly after a mild US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
Gold looks to US PPI inflation for next leg upThe headline annual CPI inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, coming in line with estimates.
The closely watched core annual CPI also matched expectations, increasing by 2.5% in July. Meanwhile, the monthly core CPI rose by 0.2% in the same period, following a flat reading in June.
The benign inflation readings further reduced bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September, triggering a big sell-off in the US Dollar (USD) alongside US Treasury bond yields, bolstering the ongoing Gold price uptrend toward $4,450.
Traders are now pricing in only a 40% probability of such a move at the September meeting, down from about 54% seen a week before, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
According to TD Securities, the latest inflation data should “continue to bring relief to the Fed regarding the need for tighter policy, at least in the near horizon.” The bank points to “signs of normalization in services prices along with tariff pass-through that remains under control” as developments that “bode well for concerns around sticky core inflation.” On that basis, TD Securities reiterates that “all in, we remain of the view that the Fed will keep its policy stance unchanged this year,” reinforcing expectations that current policy settings will be maintained despite earlier worries over persistent price pressures.
However, Gold prices quickly pulled back as Middle East tensions resurfaced after a senior Iranian source said that there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and to define a time frame for its implementation.
In response, US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that the US has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz, dismissing Iranian statements on the standoff as "fake news," adding that Tehran is "all talk and no action" and is "the Bully of the Middle East No Longer."
In Thursday’s trading so far, Gold renewed ten-week highs at $4,450 as Asian traders hit their desks and reacted positively to the mild US CPI readings, which raised doubts about an imminent Fed rate hike. Retreating Oil prices also offered additional impetus to Gold bulls.
However, they seem to be taking a breather after the recent rally as traders look to adjust their positions again ahead of the US PPI inflation release. The data could confirm the easing trend in inflation, having significant implications for Fed rate hike expectations.
Gold traders will also closely monitor developments in the Middle East, which could fuel a brief corrective downside for the bright metal before dip-buying emerges amid a bullish daily technical setup.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,408.48. The metal holds a bullish near‑term bias as it stands above the short- and medium-term simple moving averages (SMAs), with the 21-day SMA at $4,151.01 and the 50-day SMA at $4,146.69 underpinning the advance, while the 100-day SMA at $4,387.53 has been reclaimed as immediate support. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 67.49 flirts with overbought territory, suggesting strong but potentially stretched upside momentum as price consolidates near record highs.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the longer-term 200-day simple moving average at $4,502.95, which caps the current rally and marks the next hurdle for bulls. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100-day SMA at $4,387.53, with the 21-day and 50-day SMAs clustered around $4,151–4,147 acting as a deeper demand zone should a corrective pullback develop.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Producer Price Index (YoY) The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range at around $65.40 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The Silver price struggles for a direction; however, an expected slowdown in United States (US) inflationary pressures in July has improved its outlook.
On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth cooled down to 3.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.5% in June. The core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – also arrived lower at 2.5% YoY, as expected, against the previous reading of 2.6%.
Signs of price pressures cooling down have eased fears of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes in the near term. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed holding policy rates steady in the September meeting have increased to almost 60% from 30.4% seen a month ago.
Such a scenario bodes well for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Silver Technical Analysis
XAG/USD trades flat at around $65.40, extending its advance above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $61.66 and keeping a constructive near-term bullish bias. The positioning above this short-term EMA suggests underlying demand remains firm, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.17 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that bullish momentum is still in play.
On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at $61.66, which acts as the key dynamic floor that would need to give way to signal a deeper corrective phase. Looking up, the white metal would attempt to extend the advance towards the June 16 high at $71.19 if it manages to break the ongoing consolidation on the upside above $66.59.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
AUD/USD started a fresh increase above the 0.7025 resistance. A rising channel is forming with support near 0.7050 on the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD failed near the 1.1580 resistance and dipped. WTI Crude Oil prices could face hurdles near $84.20 and $85.00. AUD/USD Technical Analysis The Aussie Dollar formed a base above 0.6980 against the US Dollar. AUD/USD started a fresh increase above the 0.7000 and 0.7025 resistance levels.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair gained pace for a move toward 0.7100. A high was formed at 0.7091, and the pair is now correcting some gains. There was a move toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6922 swing low to the 0.7091 high.
The pair is still well above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There is also a rising channel forming with support near 0.7050.
On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 0.7080. The next major resistance might be 0.7100. A close above 0.7100 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 0.7145.
Any more gains might open the door for a test of 0.7200. If there is a downside correction, the pair might find bids near 0.7050. The next major support could be near 0.7025 and the 50% Fib retracement level.
The main support might be 0.7000. A downside break and close below 0.7000 might send the pair toward 0.6960. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 0.6920.
Looking at EUR/USD, the pair failed to continue higher above 1.1580 and started a downside correction.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 202K, versus 199K previous. US Producer Price Index for July 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.2%, versus -0.3% previous. US Producer Price Index for July 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +4.9%, versus +5.5% previous.
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NZD/USD volatility sits near two-decade lows Kiwi swaps price aggressive RBNZ tightening Two-year inflation expectations headline crucial RBNZ survey AUD/NZD probes potential bullish breakout NZD/USD bullish momentum fading fast The Survey That Could Shift RBNZ Pricing The Kiwi has been unbelievably quiet in August, but that calm may be living on borrowed time. Volatility is sitting near the lowest levels seen in two decades, Kiwi rates markets are heavily priced for further RBNZ tightening, and today brings the release of a survey that has historically carried meaningful implications for interest rates.
The RBNZ’s Survey of Expectations is probably the most important New Zealand release most have never heard of. Two-year inflation expectations are the number to watch, with a meaningful deviation carrying the potential to jolt the Kiwi out of its funk.
Markets Have Priced Plenty of Hikes Ahead of its release, swaps traders continue to expect a relatively aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle from the RBNZ, even after the modest pullback sparked by the soft New Zealand employment report earlier this month. Implied pricing puts the probability of a hike at the September meeting at 88%, with roughly 3.7 further hikes priced by June next year and close to five by August, on top of the first increase of the cycle delivered last month.
Source: RBNZ, FOREX.com, Bloomberg
That is far steeper than the path implied by the RBNZ’s May forecasts. From the 2.25% OCR prevailing at the time, its track implied around 3.3 hikes by the middle of next year. That differential suggests the hurdle for a further hawkish repricing is high, meaning a modest increase in inflation expectations later today may not be enough. If we were to see a retracement in inflation expectations, it could prove far more meaningful for Kiwi rates and currency.
RBNZ Reaction Function Is More Sensitive to Falls The survey provides several measures of inflation, but it’s the two-year reading that tends to be more influential when it comes to monetary policy. It is more reflective of medium-term price pressures, rather than capturing near-term volatility in food, energy and other prices. Two-year expectations rose to 2.53% in the May survey, putting them well above the 2% midpoint of the RBNZ’s 1–3% inflation target.
Source: RBNZ, FOREX.com
What’s interesting is that the historical relationship is not especially mechanical when expectations rise. Increases of at least 10bp, 15bp and 20bp while two-year expectations were above 2% were followed by a hike at the next meeting only 32%, 27% and 36% of the time respectively. It was only when the increase reached 30bp or more that the response became noticeably more hawkish, with the RBNZ hiking in 60% of cases, although that is based on only five observations.
The reaction has been considerably stronger since 2020. Increases of at least 20bp while two-year expectations were above 2% were followed by a hike at the next meeting in 60% of cases, while all three increases of 30bp or more were followed by a hike.
Source: RBNZ, FOREX.com
More interesting is what happens when inflation expectations fall, particularly when the decline takes the two-year measure back towards the RBNZ’s 2% target midpoint. Historically, that has produced a much stronger reaction function at the following policy meeting than an equivalent increases in expectations.
When two-year expectations fell but remained between 2.00% and 2.25%, the RBNZ did not hike at the next meeting in any observation across more than two decades of data. When they finished between 2.25% and 2.50%, the next-meeting hike rate was just 9%. By contrast, when expectations fell but remained above 2.50%, the RBNZ still hiked 36% of the time.
Kiwi Volatility Goes Cold
Source: LSEG, FOREX.com
While there’s been plenty of political instability in New Zealand over the past week, there's been almost none in the Kiwi. NZD/USD has been remarkably subdued, with 10-day realised volatility falling to 4.1% annualised, putting it in roughly the bottom 1% of observations going back two decades!
A decline in inflation expectations, particularly back towards the RBNZ’s 2% target midpoint, could force traders to rethink the aggressive tightening path and weigh on the Kiwi as a result.
NZD/USD Downside Risk Starts to Build
Source: TradingView
You can see visually how quiet NZD/USD has been over the past fortnight. What has piqued my interest is the pair breaking lower from what resembles a wedge structure in the wake of the US July inflation report, pushing down to test 0.5860, a level that has acted as both support and resistance earlier this year.
The message from the oscillators suggests upside momentum is fading fast. RSI (14) has been setting sequentially lower highs and lower lows and now sits only marginally above the neutral 50 level. MACD has also staged a bearish crossover, although it remains in positive territory. Combined with the recent price action, that suggests the bears may be slowly gaining the upper hand.
If the breakdown extends through 0.5860, attention shifts to the confluence of the 100 and 200-day moving averages, horizontal support around 0.5825 and the uptrend dating back to the late-June low. That is the key downside support zone to watch. A break beneath it would open the door for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day moving average, 0.5762, 0.5747 and 0.5724.
If the price manages to push back into the former compression structure, 0.5900 is the level to watch overhead. A move above there that sticks may encourage bulls to look for a run towards 0.5920, which has previously acted as support, followed by 0.5992.
AUD/NZD Bulls Eye Breakout
Source: TradingView
The price action in AUD/NZD is arguably more interesting, with a firming in RBA rate hike pricing seeing the cross rebound strongly from beneath support at 1.1935. You can’t help but notice the price is now testing the upper end of a structure that resembles a falling wedge, which is a bullish continuation pattern. Having come after a very strong rally over the past year, it suggests the pair may be on the cusp of breaking out and retesting the highs set earlier this year.
The upper boundary of the structure kicks in around 1.2053, which also coincides with horizontal resistance. A break of that level would put the 50-day and 100-day moving averages into play for bulls, with the latter marking an area where the pair stalled in late July after another rebound. A move back above the confluence of the 100-day moving average with 1.2115 resistance would improve the probability of a run towards the recent highs.
If the upper boundary of the structure holds, we may see a potential retracement back towards 1.2000, a level that capped gains previously earlier this month. Beyond that, 1.1935 and the lower boundary of the compression structure, found today around 1.1900, are the next downside levels to watch, along with the key 200-day moving average located just beneath.
Mirroring the rebound seen over the past two weeks, the oscillators have turned more constructive for the bulls. RSI (14) is setting higher highs and higher lows and now sits marginally above the neutral 50 level. MACD has also staged a bullish crossover but remains negative, although it is pushing back towards positive territory. It is still a mixed signal, more neutral in nature, but it does suggest the bears no longer have it their own way.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.7888 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7882 and 6.7470 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
EUR/USD halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 1.1530 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges following the release of July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Inflation in the United States moderated across a broad range of goods and services, which significantly cooled expectations for an aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline CPI increased 3.4% year-over-year in July, down from 3.5% previously. Similarly, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.5% year-over-year compared to 2.6% in June. Both readings matched market expectations.
US inflation in line with expectations as energy and food pressures easeAccording to TD Securities, July US consumer price inflation "matched expectations," with the headline CPI rising "0.1% m/m (0.074% before rounding; TD: 0.15%, consensus: 0.1%)." The strategists note that the modest increase was "partly explained by still retreating energy prices (gasoline -3% m/m) and slowing food inflation," underscoring the role of softer fuel and food costs in keeping overall price pressures contained.
In light of the new inflation data, market expectations for future Fed policy shifts have adjusted. According to the CME FedWatch tool, interest-rate swaps are now pricing in roughly a 40.1% chance of a rate hike in September. Odds for an October move fell to about 60% from 75% the previous day, with the next potential rate increase not fully priced in until December.
However, upside momentum for the risk-sensitive EUR/USD pair may remain constrained by escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. A senior Iranian official noted that Washington and Tehran remain at loggerheads over a permanent end to conflicts in the Gulf, reporting zero progress in reviving the interim deal or establishing an implementation timeline.
Meanwhile, the macroeconomic picture in the Eurozone continues to support the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish stance. Market-based inflation expectations for the Euro Area over the next year sit around 2.4%, remaining above the ECB’s official 2% target, while actual Eurozone inflation edged up to 2.9% in July. Coupled with a resilient economic outlook, highlighted by a 0.4% expansion in Q2, the strongest pace since early 2025, analysts have grown increasingly optimistic about the region's growth. Although near-term growth may moderate before regaining momentum, investors fully expect the ECB to deliver another 25-basis-point rate hike in September.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed down sharply from the key resistance level 1.3555 (which stopped the previous sharp impulse wave 1 in the middle of July) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.3555 is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern daily Shooting Star.
GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3450, low of the previous correction ii.
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Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to around $4,400 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. However, the potential downside for the precious metal might be limited as a tame reading of US inflation eased pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates as soon as next month.
A senior Iranian official said that Washington and Tehran remain at loggerheads over efforts to agree a permanent end to the war in the Gulf, adding that there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and define a time frame to implement it.
Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz weigh on the yellow metal as it raises oil-driven inflation fears. “With the Strait of Hormuz still shut, upside inflation risks will remain top of mind for the foreseeable future,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
The latest US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation moderated across a range of goods and services, cooling September Fed rate hike expectations. This, in turn, could help limit gold’s losses. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the CPI increased 3.4% YoY in July, versus 3.5% prior. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core CPI increased 2.5% YoY in July, compared to 2.6% in June. Both readings came in line with expectations.
Interest-rate swaps are now pricing in nearly a 40.1% odds of a Fed hike in September, though the odds on an October move fell to about 60% from 75% a day earlier, with the next increase fully priced for December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Gold upside persists as US CPI fails to revive Fed hike betsAccording to TD Securities, “precious metals maintain upside” as the latest US CPI release “did little to reignite the Fed hike pricing.” The bank notes that “recent price action highlights the gold market is increasingly not expecting hikes,” underscoring a supportive backdrop for bullion even as investors reassess the policy outlook in light of softer inflation dynamics.
Technical Analysis: Gold keeps a bullish vibe in the near term
In the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a bullish near-term bias as it extends above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and remains comfortably over the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle line, suggesting a well-supported uptrend structure. Price is now pressing the upper Bollinger band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 67.51 flirts with overbought territory, hinting that the latest advance is strong but increasingly stretched.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the Bollinger upper band at $4,410, where a sustained break would open the way to further gains. On the downside, initial support is seen near the current area, with the 100-day SMA at $4,390 acting as the first meaningful floor, ahead of the Bollinger middle band at $4,140; a deeper pullback toward the lower band at $3,865 would only come into focus if the bullish structure starts to unwind.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The GBP/JPY holds firm on Wednesday at around 215.00, as neither buyers nor sellers are reluctant to open fresh directional bets amid fears of renewed intervention in the FX markets by US and Japanese authorities to propel the Yen. At the time of writing, the cross-pair hovers below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), barely unchanged.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookGBP/JPY faces significant resistance levels that are capping its advance, resulting in sideways trading. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), remains flat at the neutral level of 50, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers to drive the pair beyond key levels.
On the upside, the initial key resistance is the 50-day SMA at 215.43, followed by 216.00. Breaking this will open the way to the 216.50 level and, subsequently, the 217.00 psychological level.
Downwards, GBP/JPY's first support level is at 215.00, followed by the 100-day SMA at 214.55. Beneath lies the 200-day SMA at 212.12, above the August 7 low of 211.47.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
US inflation came in broadly in line with expectations, sending expectations of a September hike down to 40% from 55% just over a week ago. Though it seems forex traders may have been positioned for a weaker set of figures, given the US dollar index traded higher on Wednesday. Yet as I outline below, I do not have great confidence in this supposed US dollar bounce, and suspect we saw a significant high on the dollar back in June. Even so, with the US dollar index showing the potential to extend its lacklustre bounce, it could see EUR/USD retreat further below its 200-day EMA before the next leg of an anticipated move higher unfolds.
View related analysis:
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Wobbles on RBA Hold, US CPI Up Next FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar Longs Plunged, Yen Shorts Slashed Japanese Yen Outlook: US CPI, Intervention Risks Put USD/JPY Bulls on Notice Wall Street Outlook: Dow Jones Soars to a Record, Nasdaq Leads the Charge How to Read the COT Report to Track Forex Market Sentiment US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis While the dollar is retracing higher for now, bulls are making hard work of the gains – and clues from the weekly chart suggest further losses could await as the year progresses.
We may have seen a significant high in the week of June 22, with a double top and bearish engulfing week also forming around 100.50. For now, I suspect it marks the completion of the correction from the January low, with momentum having realigned with the selloff from the January 2025 high (which itself is a lower high relative to 2022).
For now, momentum is pointing higher from the 50-week EMA and 200-day EMA, as prices manage to hold above the January trendline – just. Yet daily trading volumes remain low and beneath their 20-day average to show a lacklustre effort form bulls. And with the 100 handle, July low (10.15) and monthly pivot point (100.28) nearby for potential resistance, the upside for the US dollar could also be limited.
That said, this is not to say the USD will simply roll over either, with the 99.17 high-volume node (HVN), monthly S1 pivot point (99.08) and 99 handle nearby. But it could at least mean the retracement higher on DXY could be limited, and therefore pullbacks on EUR/USD, AUD/USD and others could be on the smaller side before they try to move to new highs. We also need to see the US dollar break beneath the 98.70 low before assuming the wheels have truly fallen off and that the bigger move for bears is back underway.
Source: ICE, TradingView
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro vs US Dollar A higher US dollar naturally means a weaker euro, with EUR/USD accounting for ~57% of the DXY basket.
The daily chart shows near-term bearish signals which hint at a retracement lower. EUR/USD is yet to see a daily close above its 200-day EMA, despite intraday spikes above it. And bulls have made a bit of a mess of invalidating the 2026 bearish trendline. But even if EUR/USD does provide a deeper p[...].
The weekly chart shows support was found at the May VPOC ahead of a higher low and bullish outside week. This suggests to me that a significant swing low was seen in June, and that EUR/USD is trying to break higher after its minor pullback over the near term. Beyond the pullback, I am on the lookout for a swing low and potential rally up to the 1.16 handle, June VPOC (1.1612) and high-volume node (1.1644).
Source: ICE, TradingView
USD Bullish Exposure Falls as EUR/USD Sentiment Improves | COT Report It is worth noting that traders remained heavily net-long US dollar index futures as of last Tuesday’s close, although bulls are clearly questioning their level of exposure. Net-long exposure to the US dollar via the futures market declined by $12.5 billion from the week prior – the fastest reduction of longs in nearly two years and the second-fastest in six. Net-long exposure had also risen to just $3 billion shy of its all-time high, hinting at a bullish sentiment extreme. Asset managers also reduced their net-long exposure to US dollar index futures from a 19-month high, so questions are clearly being asked by USD bulls regarding their level of bullish exposure.
Meanwhile, large speculators reduced their net-short exposure to EUR/USD futures from their most bearish level since December 2024. Asset managers remained net-long and slightly increased their bullish exposure. Of course, this is weekly delayed data, so it is best used to gauge sentiment rather than as a timing cue for trades on lower timeframes. But when you put the clues together, I see the potential for a more bullish euro and less dominance from USD bulls in the coming weeks.
If you revisit the US Constitution’s Article I, Section 10, Clause 1, you will see the principles of the U.S. monetary system: "No State shall... make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts." According to this clause, states do not have the authority to "emit Bills of Credit." This means that the U.S. monetary system was to be managed by the central government. Then, gold and silver were to be the only means of payment.
However, violations of the Constitution regarding money began as early as the 19th century. For example, according to the Coinage Act that was passed in 1873, the minting of US silver dollars was stopped, and only coins of lower denominations remained. It is widely believed that the 1873 Act cancelled the original bimetallic financial system or gold and silver standard, that is. Other experts, however, believe the Act substantially restricted it. On March 14, 1900, the Gold Standard Act came into effect in the US. According to the Act, gold has become the sole metal for backing and redeeming paper currency. This obviously marked the end of the bimetallism era in the US, during which silver was freely exchangeable for gold. The Gold Standard Act was an obvious violation of the Constitution, which had made both gold and silver legitimate means of payment.
Then, in 1933, gold’s status as a means of payment was threatened again. President Franklin Roosevelt’s executive order required citizens to give their gold to the Treasury in exchange for the Fed’s notes. Later, in 1934, commercial banks were also required to exchange their gold reserves—not for dollars, but for gold certificates. Not only was gold currency abolished, but private ownership of gold was effectively banned (with few exceptions). With the help of his executive order Franklin Roosevelt gave the Fed the power to print unbacked currency. Citizens' rights to own gold began to be fully restored under President Richard Nixon. In 1975, President Gerald Ford fully legalized private gold ownership.
As I have mentioned in my other articles, the USD was later linked with gold prices during the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference, during which the gold-dollar standard was established. However, the right to exchange paper dollars for the precious metal was granted only to the monetary authorities of other nations; no such exchange option was provided for American citizens. On August 15, 1971, President Nixon cancelled the direct convertibility of the USD into gold for foreign governments and central bankers.
Under President Joe Biden, efforts were made to begin developing a digital dollar. However, when Donald Trump returned to the White House, he terminated the digital dollar project. Instead, he decided to focus on supporting cryptocurrencies, stablecoins in particular.
The point I am making is that nowadays American money is very far from the idea of the US Constitution. This is particularly true given the fact that the US dollar is consistently depreciating due to inflation. Since the Fed was created in 1913, the dollar has lost over 96% of its purchasing power.
Source: RedditAs I have mentioned in many of my previous publications before, the US dollar could lose its status as the world’s reserve currency that it gained during the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference. As soon as that happens, America’s debt- fueled economy would likely face a serious crisis.
Interestingly, there were attempts to restore gold and silver as America’s official means of payment. For example, the 40th US President, Ronald Reagan, signed the Liberty Coin and the Gold Bullion Coin Acts. These laws allowed the US Mint to issue gold and silver coins that were supposed to be treated as legal tender. However, these coins never became money. Instead, they were still considered to be investment, collectible, or commemorative coins.
In October 2022, Congressman Alex Mooney of West Virginia introduced a bill to restore the gold standard, aiming to tie the USD to gold in order to cope with inflation, accumulated budget deficits, and the US monetary system’ instability. Obviously, the bill did not get sufficient support and did not become law as a result.
At the state level, however, there are significantly more politicians and officials that support the idea to recognize both gold and silver as legal tender. The Sound Money Defense League (SMDL), a public organization founded in 2014, is active in many states today. The organization’s aim is to have gold and silver recognized as money—at least at the state level for now. After the statewide recognition takes place, work can begin at the federal level. One of the SMDL’s founders is Ron Paul, a longtime congressman who tried to promote federal legislation in Congress to revive the gold standard, yet, without success. Therefore, the decision was made to continue the recognition work at the state level.
According to the SMDL’s Executive Director J.P. Cortez, by mid-2025, 12 U.S. states had signed laws restoring gold’s and silver’s money status. Meanwhile, similar laws were being prepared in 32 America’s states. As Cortez said: "The main reason gold and silver are not used as money today is not that they make for poor money, but rather that the government has burdened all viable alternatives with taxes and regulations."
Here are the steps one has to take to give gold and silver the status of money. First, it is necessary to eliminate taxes on the purchase, sale, and other transactions involving gold and silver. Second, is to abolish taxes on capital gains arising from the appreciation of precious metal bars or coins. Finally, the government can recognize the precious metals as money. If the monetary status of precious metals gets legalized, this does not mean that they must physically circulate in the form of coins. Gold and silver can exist in paper or electronic form but remain freely convertible into the physical precious metals. However, establishing such a monetary system requires the creation and equipping of specialized precious metal depositories within the states, managed by state financial agencies or treasuries. According to the latest data, 45 out of 50 states have already taken the first step—abolishing taxes on gold and silver transactions.
The greatest resistance to the return of precious metals to the realm of money is observed in states such as California, Maine, and Vermont, while states such as Wyoming, South Dakota, and Alaska have made the most progress in legalizing gold and silver as money. Wyoming recently established a $10 million gold reserve, while Utah created a $180 million physical gold fund. Even though these amounts may seem to be moderate, a start has been made.
In May 2025, Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis signed a law recognizing gold and silver as legal tender within the state but it officially took effect on July 1 of this year. Under the law, coins bearing information regarding their weight, purity, and place of minting are recognized as legal tender. Although the law does not require the acceptance of gold as payment, it still serves as an alternative payment method subject if the parties involved agree.
Also, in Alaska, following a lengthy process that began back in 2023, a law was finally passed that also gives gold and silver the currency status.
SMDL is currently working to promote the “Goldback”, a local product that possesses characteristics of both a commodity and currency in several states. It takes the form of a banknote but contains a small amount of 24-karat gold. A single Goldback note contains 1/1,000 of a troy ounce of the precious metal, making its value easy to calculate: it is simply the spot price of gold divided by 1,000. Right now, the official price of gold is lingering near the $4,500 per troy ounce mark. So, right now, the value of a Goldback note is equivalent to $4.50.
These gold notes are produced by the private mint Valaurum. However, some refer to the Goldback as a "coin" rather than a "banknote." In the former case, it is said to be "printed," while in the latter, it is "minted." The Goldback was first issued in Utah in 2019. Later, special series were produced for Nevada, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Florida, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Arizona, and Idaho. According to Goldback Inc., as of April 2026, more than 5,000 businesses across the US accept Goldback as a form of payment.
EUR/USD price action turned volatile on Wednesday as the pair struggled to hold early gains following the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a key driver for Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and US dollar direction. The euro briefly surged on signs of cooling US inflation but quickly lost momentum as traders reassessed the broader policy outlook.
The currency pair initially climbed as high as $1.1563 immediately after the inflation release before reversing lower, highlighting the market’s indecision. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around $1.1525, with the closely watched $1.1500 psychological level once again coming into focus as a key short-term support zone.
While US inflation data showed further moderation, typically a bearish signal for the US dollar, the reaction was muted. The CPI figures largely met expectations rather than delivering a significant downside surprise, limiting the scope for a sustained dollar selloff and keeping EUR/USD trapped within a tight intraday range.
US CPI Falls to 3.4% as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Ease US consumer prices increased 0.1% month-on-month in July, following a 0.4% decline in June. On an annual basis, headline inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% during the month and slowed to 2.5% year-on-year.
Both readings were broadly consistent with market expectations. Nevertheless, the continued moderation in inflation strengthened the argument for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting.
Interest-rate markets subsequently reduced the probability of a September rate increase to around 40%, compared with significantly higher expectations earlier this month. The combination of softer inflation and July’s weak employment report has made the case for an immediate rate increase considerably harder to justify. That should theoretically be negative for the US dollar and supportive of EUR/USD. Wednesday’s price action, however, shows that traders are not ready to abandon the greenback.
US Dollar Recovers as Oil and Middle East Risks Complicate Fed Outlook The US Dollar Index initially dropped to approximately 99.61 following the CPI release but subsequently recovered toward the psychologically important 100.00 level. One reason is that the inflation outlook remains vulnerable to developments in energy markets.
Oil prices have remained volatile amid continuing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A sustained increase in crude prices could feed back into US inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path even as underlying price pressures moderate. The geopolitical backdrop has also maintained some safe-haven demand for the dollar.
As a result, traders appear reluctant to price out additional Fed tightening entirely. While a September move now looks less likely, markets still see the possibility of another increase later in the year if inflation proves persistent. For EUR/USD, this has created a tug-of-war between improving rate differentials for the euro and lingering demand for the US dollar.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: $1.1500 Becomes Critical Support The one-hour EUR/USD chart shows a clear deterioration in short-term momentum following the rejection from the $1.1560 area. EUR/USD is currently trading around $1.1525, below the Bollinger Band 20-period moving average near $1.1536. The pair has also moved toward the lower Bollinger Band, currently around $1.1517, highlighting the increase in short-term selling pressure.
The MACD provides another warning for euro bulls. The MACD line has moved below its signal line and the histogram has turned increasingly negative, suggesting bearish momentum is building following Wednesday’s failed breakout.
The first level to watch is therefore $1.1500. This psychological level has repeatedly attracted buyers and remains important to the broader recovery structure. A decisive break below $1.1500 could strengthen the bearish correction and expose the $1.1465-$1.1470 area.
On the upside, EUR/USD first needs to reclaim $1.1535-$1.1540 to ease immediate selling pressure. Above there, the $1.1555-$1.1565 zone represents the more significant resistance area. A sustained break above $1.1565 would put $1.1600 back into focus.
EUR/USD Outlook: Can the Euro Hold Above $1.15? The near-term EUR/USD outlook remains finely balanced following the US CPI report. Cooling inflation and weaker US employment data have reduced the probability of a September Fed rate hike, removing an important source of support for the dollar. However, Wednesday’s reversal shows that softer CPI alone may not be sufficient to push EUR/USD decisively higher.
Attention now turns to upcoming US economic releases, including producer prices and retail sales. Stronger data, particularly another sign of persistent inflation, could revive Fed tightening expectations and put $1.1500 under renewed pressure.
Conversely, further evidence that inflation and economic activity are cooling could push Treasury yields and the dollar lower, giving EUR/USD another opportunity to challenge $1.1565 and potentially $1.1600. For now, $1.1500 is the key dividing line. Holding above it keeps the euro’s broader recovery intact, while a convincing breakdown would shift the short-term EUR/USD price forecast increasingly in favour of sellers.
Why is EUR/USD falling after the US CPI report?
EUR/USD initially rose after US inflation eased but reversed as the dollar recovered. The CPI figures were broadly in line with expectations, while elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to create upside inflation risks.
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in September?
Expectations for a September Fed rate hike fell after July CPI showed headline inflation easing to 3.4% and core inflation declining to 2.5%. Markets currently favour the Fed keeping rates unchanged, although another increase later in 2026 remains possible if inflation pressures intensify.
What are the main EUR/USD resistance levels?
Immediate resistance sits around $1.1535-$1.1540, followed by the stronger $1.1555-$1.1565 area. A breakout could open the door toward $1.1600.
Gold confirms a bullish reversal above key resistance, strengthening the case for an advance toward the 200-day moving average near $4,502.
In this article:Gold
+0.83%
Gold ForecastBullish Reversal Gains Momentum After signs of resistance and a weak close on Tuesday, buyers took back control of gold on Wednesday to reach a slightly new high of $4,441. A potential bearish candlestick pattern from Tuesday did not trigger and a higher daily low of $4,362 was established instead. Gold is set to close above the lower swing high of $4,382 from mid June and above the 100-day moving average at $4,390, thereby confirming a bullish reversal signal and reclaim of a key moving average. Also, Wednesday’s close is set to be the highest for the current advance, providing an additional bullish indication.
Spot gold daily chart shows buyers in remain in control. Source: TradingView The fact that gold has not had a pullback below a prior day’s low since bullish momentum accelerated after a break above a downtrend line last Wednesday, is testament to the conviction of buyers. Therefore, if the current resistance zone is cleared, it looks like gold may head to its next upside target before a pullback.
Momentum Points Toward $4,502 The 200-day moving average is a key potential resistance zone and it sits currently near $4,502. It has not been successfully tested as resistance since a break below it occurred in early June, other than an initial pullback. Given the position and strength of the advance, it looks likely to be tested before gold is done with the current overall advance. This doesn’t mean there is not consolidation or a pullback first, but there is also the possibility that the 200-day average is reached before that occurs.
Spot gold daily chart shows rise from bottom of falling trend channel. Source: TradingView A sustained reclaim of the 100-day moving average goes a long way towards reaching the 200-day average. The first approach is expected to be met with resistance, further supported by a downtrend line. If the 200-day moving average is reached and followed by weakness, the 100-day moving average will represent a key dynamic initial support area.
Longer-Term Trend Faces Next Test With a test of the 200-day moving average, the downtrend line may also be tested as resistance, along with an interim lower swing high from late May at $4,595. The recovery above the long-term uptrend line recently is positive for the long-term trend. To further satisfy the bulls, a reclaim of the 200-day moving average will also need to occur.
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With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, Bruce is a seasoned finance MBA and CMT® charter holder. Having worked as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and a corporate advisor for trading firms, Bruce shares his expertise in futures to retail investors, providing actionable insights through both technical and fundamental analyses.
US Dollar Talking Points: The focus shifts to PPI as an expected reduction in Producer Prices highlights tomorrow’s macro calendar. Markets are looking for a 4.2% print from a prior month of 4.7%. At this morning’s CPI print, there was little excitement as both headline and core printed right at the expected 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
The USD is bouncing in late US trade following this morning’s CPI print, which came in right at the expected 3.4% and 2.5% for headline and core. At this point it still looks like the USD/JPY pair is dominating Dollar flows and that showed throughout today’s trade, with an early-morning sell-off in both markets reversing after the data release.
As looked at yesterday, inflation remains a hot button on the USD/JPY trade. Given that the pair is more than 50% above early 2021 levels there’s still a heavy long position holding on, and a whiff of change such as we saw in November of 2022 or 2023, or in July of 2024, can compel a sizable sell-off.
With this morning’s inflation report still showing well above the Fed’s targets, there’s still the harboring expectation for rate hikes later this year which removes some of that worry for USD/JPY longs. But the next chapter on inflation is in the spotlight tomorrow with the PPI release, which is often considered to be a lead-in for consumer prices, especially given our current backdrop.
With higher oil prices driving inflation in areas other than energy, the concern is whether the Fed is looking at a more systemic worry than just higher gas prices due to the war in Iran. That had started to show a couple of months ago, as Core CPI popped up to a 2.9% read after printing at 2.5% just a few months prior, and that’s likely one reason that the Fed started to shift into a more-hawkish stance in June which, in-turn, drove breakouts in both the USD and USD/JPY.
At this point, the USD has round-tripped since that June Fed meeting when the bank suddenly started to sound hawkish. The DXY basket has been finding support at the same spot that was in-play leading into that meeting, spanning up to the 99.52 area on the chart.
On that chart, we have a few important waypoints overhead, with the 100 handle in DXY followed by a big zone spanning from 100.22 up to 100.40. This was support back in 2024 as the Fed started hiking rates before coming in as resistance multiple times last year and then resistance-turned-support earlier this year.
US Dollar Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY
As goes USD/JPY, so goes the Dollar basket. And the underside wick on DXY followed by a rally into late trade echoes that sentiment with USD/JPY looking primed to re-test the 160.00 level of resistance.
The big question with 160 is whether we see another intervention. They last intervened when the pair was around 164 so, perhaps they won’t be so aggressive, and I think that’s what we’re seeing from bulls at this point as the rally has remained rather tepid near highs or tests of resistance while still aggressive on pullbacks or tests of support – and this makes sense if we consider the fact that an intervention seems unlikely at lower price levels while gains encounter a higher risk of such.
The important item from this morning is where support showed up. There was a quick pullback before the US opened and that pushed price right down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 158.58, which has so far set up as support. This price was also previous resistance so there’s a couple of different items of importance there and the 50% mark from that same move is nearing overhead. I’ve spanned that level up to the 160.00 spot for a resistance zone in the pair on the below chart.
Markets have an incredible way of sniffing out weakness and I think that’s what we’re seeing now, as the dual intervention from the US and Japan has set a line in the sand at 164, but will both, or either jump in earlier this time at 160? Markets seem to be getting more comfortable with testing that thesis right now.
USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD EUR/USD has put in minimal change so far in August and I think a lot of that dials back to the larger matter of the crowded trade in USD/JPY. But – EUR/USD is pulling back today following a resistance test last week, and there’s a big spot of support coming into view from around 1.1500 up to 1.1515, and there’s secondary support a bit lower from around 1.1455 up to 1.1469.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview GBP/USD While EUR/USD held below key resistance established last week, GBP/USD extended its rally with another fresh high this morning when we had that initial push of USD-weakness following the USD/JPY pullback. With USD strength re-appearing, GBP/USD has similarly pulled back and now there’s a couple of support levels coming into view, with 1.3484 and 1.3470 getting closer.
GBP/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview AUD/USD In this morning’s webinar which was about an hour after the CPI release, AUD/USD was testing the top of a resistance zone just inside of the .7100 handle. Since then, the USD pullback has erased those gains and at this point he daily bar is looking quite indecisive. This isn’t necessarily doom and gloom, but it does highlight how chasing fresh breakouts especially with the noisiness of a news release can be a dangerous way to go.
At this point the big question is whether higher-low support plays and there’s a big spot that’s already being tested around .7050 and another sits below around .7021.
AUD/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
The USD/CHF edges higher by some 0.30% on Wednesday, refreshing ten-day highs of 0.8138, as the uptrend is poised to extend if it clears key resistance levels.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe market structure of successive higher highs and higher lows continues to be respected, indicating that the uptrend remains in place. Nevertheless, it seems that a bearish flag is forming, which could open the door for a deeper pullback before the USD/CHF resumes its uptrend.
Momentum remains bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). But if USD/CHF falls below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8071, it opens the door to a retracement, initially to 0.8042, ahead of 0.8000.
Conversely, if the pair surpasses the top trendline of the bearish flag, this clears the way towards 0.8200 and the yearly peak at 0.8205. Once those two levels are removed, buyers could challenge the psychological levels of 0.8250 and 0.8300.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
USD/CHF daily chart Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.17%0.13%0.13%0.16%0.02%0.39%0.36%EUR-0.17%-0.04%-0.06%-0.02%-0.19%0.24%0.19%GBP-0.13%0.04%-0.02%0.00%-0.15%0.26%0.23%JPY-0.13%0.06%0.02%0.02%-0.12%0.28%0.24%CAD-0.16%0.02%-0.01%-0.02%-0.15%0.27%0.21%AUD-0.02%0.19%0.15%0.12%0.15%0.39%0.38%NZD-0.39%-0.24%-0.26%-0.28%-0.27%-0.39%-0.05%CHF-0.36%-0.19%-0.23%-0.24%-0.21%-0.38%0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
July inflation landed exactly where the consensus had it, on all four lines of the release, and Gold responded by adding around 1% and holding fast near $4,400/ounce, trading at its highest since early June. A print that surprises nobody is not supposed to move a metal that far. This one did, because the composition underneath the headline handed a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) the cover to wait, and the rate market cut the odds of a September hike from a coin flip to a 38% tail inside the hour.
What the same curve says about October and December is the problem. The hike did not come off the calendar. It moved by one meeting, and Gold has repriced as though it were cancelled.
The print a hawkish Fed can look throughThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in July against a 0.1% consensus, after falling 0.4% in June, and 3.4% over the year against 3.4% expected, down from 3.5%. Core, stripping food and energy, rose 0.2% against 0.2% expected and 2.5% over the year against the same, down from 2.6% and the softest core reading since January. Four lines, four bullseyes.
The interesting part sits in the detail tables. Shelter rose 0.1% on the month and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the entire all-items increase, which is a very quiet way to build a headline. Energy fell 1.5% on the month with gasoline down 2.9%. Yet energy is still 14.7% higher over the year and gasoline 24.6% higher, and airline fares, the cleanest passthrough from jet fuel to the consumer basket, rose 2.2% on the month and 25.5% over the year.
Read those together and the war is sitting almost entirely in the headline index while the core keeps grinding lower. That is the single most convenient shape a conflict-driven inflation impulse can take for a central bank that does not want to tighten into a supply shock. It lets policy treat the barrel as relative prices rather than inflation, look through the energy line, and point at a 2.5% core as evidence that the underlying trend is intact.
Gold understood that immediately and correctly. The metal opened near $4,371, dipped to $4,362 ahead of the release, then ran to $4,441 after it and holds around $4,434. Buying a soft core print is the right trade on the day.
The hike moved by one meeting, not off the calendarHere is where the tape and the curve part company.
The September 16 meeting now prices at 61.86% for a hold in the current 3.50%-3.75% band against 38.14% for a quarter-point move. Two days ago, that same meeting was a coin flip. So far, so consistent with a metal rallying.
Run the curve forward and the picture inverts. The October 28 meeting carries 62.50% for the 3.75%-4.00% band, meaning the market is already better than three-in-five that the hike has happened by Halloween. By December 9, that band carries 95.28%, with a further 4.72% sitting above it. On the conditional distribution, the December tail is fatter still, 23.9% for two hikes and 3.9% for three.
That is not a market that has abandoned tightening. It is a market that has slid one hike five weeks to the right and left the destination almost exactly where it was. The terminal expectation is barely disturbed. What changed is the timing, and only the timing.
For a non-yielding asset, the distinction is close to everything. Gold funds itself against real rates, and a hike deferred by one meeting costs a holder roughly five weeks of carry differential. Five weeks of carry is worth a few dollars an ounce, not a hundred and fifty. The metal has taken a timing adjustment and priced it as a change of regime.
The chart has run ahead of the repricingThe mechanical picture makes the same case without needing a single rate probability.
Gold spent the summer beneath its 200-day exponential moving average and reclaimed it only in the past few sessions. That average sits near $4,290. The 50-day sits near $4,220, roughly $70 below the 200-day, which means the shorter average still trades under the longer one and the alignment that produced the June and July decline has not reversed. It has simply been jumped.
Price now trades about 3.4% above the 200-day and better than 5% above the 50-day, having travelled almost 12.7% from the July low near $3,941 in about three weeks. Daily Stoch RSI is above 81 and pressed into the overbought band. A market that reclaims a long moving average usually does it, backs and fills, and lets the shorter average catch up. This one has gone straight through and kept going.
None of that makes the direction wrong. Moving averages do not cap anything, and a genuine regime change ignores them for months at a time. It does mean the move has borrowed heavily from the future, on a rate repricing that turns out to be a deferral, at a momentum reading that historically precedes consolidation rather than acceleration.
Two dates decide itThe near-term test arrives quickly, and both legs of it land inside 48 hours.
Producer prices come Thursday, with the headline expected at 0.2% on the month and 4.9% over the year against 5.5%, and the core measure at 0.3% and 4.2% against 4.7%. A soft PPI corroborates the CPI, pushes the September odds lower still, and gives the current Gold level a fundamental leg it presently lacks. A firm one, particularly in the core, tells the market the July CPI was an energy artefact and pulls September back toward the coin flip it was on Monday. Two Fed speakers follow the print within half an hour, one of them among the three who dissented for a quarter point at the July meeting, which is the first chance anyone on the committee has to react to the disinflation in public.
Friday brings retail sales and the preliminary Michigan survey, where the one-year inflation expectation sits at 4.2% and the five-year at 3.3%. Consumer expectations running that far above target are the strongest argument the hawks have, and a further rise there would be the most direct threat to the September pause the market has just bought.
The framework from hereThe bias is for consolidation rather than continuation, and the levels are unusually clean.
$4,400 is the pivot in play, and holding it on a daily basis keeps the reclaim credible. Losing it turns attention to $4,300, which is effectively the 200-day and the line that decides whether the past three weeks were a regime change or an overshoot. Beneath that, $4,200 sits on the 50-day and is where the overbid thesis would be fully expressed. The July floor near $4,000 is the deeper reference and is not in play absent a hawkish PPI surprise.
To the upside, $4,500 is the level that matters, because it is where the June breakdown began and where trapped supply from that decline is likeliest to sit. A daily close above $4,500 invalidates the overbid reading outright and says the market is pricing something larger than a five-week deferral, most plausibly a view that the tightening cycle is over rather than paused.
Position for the gap between timing and destination. The tape has priced a September pause. The curve has priced an October or December hike at better than 95% by year-end. Both cannot be worth $4,434, and the reconciliation runs through Thursday's producer prices.
Silver price surges over 1.40% on Wednesday as the latest inflation report in the United States (US) shows that prices are cooling, on its way towards the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2%. The XAG/USD trades at $65.53.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookFrom a technical perspective, the white metal is neutral to upward biased, with bulls gathering strength. They cleared the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around $61.60 and also the July 6 high at $63.28 on its way towards reclaiming the $65.00 figure.
Momentum stills favor further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and aiming upwards. Hence the path of least resistance is up.
The first resistance would be the August 10 high at $66.59. Once surpassed the next stop is the 100-day SMA at $68.87, followed by the 200-day SMA at $71.47. Above lies the $75.00.
For a bearish resumption, the XAG/USD must drop below the 50-day SMA. This can prompt investors to challenge the July 6 high turned support of $63.28. Beneath, the next are of interest is the $60.00 milestone.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold price (XAU/USD) registers gains of over 1% on Wednesday as US inflation data aligns with estimates, easing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) task of further tightening monetary policy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues its downward trajectory. The XAU/USD trades above $4,400 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,362.
XAU/USD rallies after US inflation cools, easing September hike fearsBullion extended its gains as investors speculate that the Fed will not raise rates at its September meeting, following July’s report. On Tuesday, money markets priced in a 52% chance of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting. But the dip in inflation shifted the odds to 60% that the US central bank will keep rates steady, according to Prime Terminal data.
The Fed has a 73% chance of raising rates in December, with three inflation reports before the December 9 meeting.
July’s CPI came in at 3.5% YoY, down from 3.6%, while core CPI also edged lower from 2.6% to 2.5% YoY, as revealed by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). Even though Oil prices rose nearly 24% in July, gasoline prices declined for the second straight month.
However, geopolitics continued to weigh on the economy, and if negotiations between the US and Iran failed to reach common ground to end the conflict, energy prices could jump again, threatening to halt the disinflation process in the US.
According to Al-Mayadeen, an Iranian political and security source said that the Strait of Hormuz remained closed and that Tehran hasn’t changed its policy.
US President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social account that “The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!” It's a belief that isn't backed up by the facts on the waterway. At the same time, CNN reported that US embassies in the Middle East would continue to work with reduced staff amid the Iran war.
On Thursday, traders' eyes will be on the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July and Initial Jobless Claims data. If the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rises, it could increase downside risks to the labour market, which could push the Unemployment Rate higher.
XAU/USD price forecast: Gold climbs back above $4,400, eyes on $4,500Gold price seems to be gaining traction as it clears the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,388, potentially opening the door to further upside. Momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers are gaining traction. Hence, the path of least resistance is upward in the short term.
XAU/USD's first resistance would be the $4,450 psychological level. A breach of it will expose the 200-day SMA exactly at the psychological $4,500 mark. A daily close above the latter could pave the way to challenge the $5,000 milestone.
On the flip side, if Gold falls below the low of the day (LOD) at $4,362, it opens the door to a deeper pullback. The next support is $4,300, followed by the July 6 high at $4,202. If this level fails, the next support levels are the 50-day SMA at $4,150 and $4,100.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
EUR/USD edges lower on Wednesday, reversing earlier gains as the US Dollar (USD) shrugs off in-line US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1521 after touching an intraday high of 1.1563.
The US Dollar weakened immediately after the inflation report as headline and core CPI eased to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively, prompting traders to scale back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets.
However, the Greenback later pared its losses as elevated energy prices keep inflation risks tilted to the upside. Limited prospects for peace in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz also support safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades close to the 100 psychological mark after rebounding from an intraday low of 99.61.
The US Dollar’s recovery drags EUR/USD toward the lower end of its recent range following repeated rejections at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, EUR/USD retains a neutral-to-slightly bullish bias. The pair holds above the 1.1500 psychological mark and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1466.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 56, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, although the fading green histogram points to weakening bullish momentum. The Average Directional Index (ADX) in the high 20s suggests moderate trend strength.
On the upside, the 100-day SMA at 1.1567 offers immediate resistance. A decisive break above this level would bring the 200-day SMA near 1.1630 into focus.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the horizontal level of 1.1500, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1466, a break of which would weaken the nascent positive tone and expose the pair to a deeper pullback.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 61.9% probability that Fed will leave rates unchanged at the next meeting in September. The market continues to expect that Fed will start the rate hike cycle this year, making the first 25 bps hike in December. The recent decline in rate hike probability serves as a positive catalyst for gold.
U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies despite falling Treasuries yields. Dollar’s move put some pressure on gold markets and pushed them away from two-month highs.
Gold moved above the resistance at $4360 – $4380 and climbed above the $4400 level. In case gold settles above $4400, it will head towards the resistance, which is located in the $4480 – $4500 range.
On the support side, a move below the $4360 level will push gold towards the $4300 level. If gold declines below $4300, it will head towards the support level at $4180 – $4200.
Silver Tests The $66.00 Level As Gold/Silver Ratio Pulls Back
The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds firm within familiar levels on Wednesday after the US inflation report was in line with estimates, a relief for the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is laser-focused on tackling higher prices. The GBP/USD pair trades at around 1.3500 after reaching a high of 1.3546. Read More...
Pound Sterling retains gains as US CPI trims September Fed hike oddsGBP/USD trades modestly higher on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) comes under mild pressure following the release of the latest US inflation figures. However, the market reaction remains limited as the data broadly matched expectations. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades around 1.3523, near its highest level since July 16. Read More...
British Pound holds steady above 1.3500 vs USD as traders eye US CPI ahead of UK GDPThe GBP/USD pair extends its sideways consolidation around the 1.3500 psychological mark through the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Traders opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of important macro data from the US and the UK. Read More...
Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as traders reacted to U.S. CPI report. USD/CAD failed to settle below the support level at 1.3920 - 1.3935.USD/JPY gained some ground as traders ignored the pullback in Treasury yields.
In this article:EUR/USD
-0.15%
EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD
-0.09%
GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD
+0.13%
USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY
+0.07%
USD/JPY Forecast
U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Inflation Rate Drops To 3.4%
DXY 120826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains some ground as traders focus on CPI report. The report indicated that Inflation Rate declined from 3.5% in June to 3.4% in July, in line with analyst estimates. Core Inflation Rate decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%. Core Inflation Rate has also met analyst expectations.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 100.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range.
EUR/USD Retreats After U.S. CPI Report
EUR/USD 120826 4h Chart EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on U.S. inflation data. Traders also monitored the dynamics of the oil markets. Oil prices were swinging between gains and losses amid geopolitical uncertainty and did not have a material impact on forex market dynamics.
The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1510 – 1.1525 range. in case EUR/USD declines below the 1.1510 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.1435 – 1.1450. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
GBP/USD Pulls Back From Weekly Highs GBP/USD 120826 4h Chart GBP/USD moved away from session highs as traders reacted to U.S. CPI report. It looks that some traders hoped that U.S. inflation numbers would be lower than analyst estimates.
In case GBP/USD manages to settle below the 1.3500 level, it will head towards the support level at 1.3465 – 1.3480. A move below the 1.3465 level will push GBP/USD towards the next support, which is located in the 1.3335 – 1.3350 range.
On the upside, GBP/USD needs to settle above the resistance at 1.3550 – 1.3565 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term.
USD/CAD Rebounds From Multi-Week Lows USD/CAD 120826 4h Chart USD/CAD attempts to rebound despite rising precious metals markets. Gold settled above the $4400 level, while silver made an attempt to settle above $66.00. Other commodity-related currencies were mixed in today’s trading session.
If USD/CAD settles above the 1.3950 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3995. A move above the 50 MA will push USD/CAD towards the resistance level at 1.4010 – 1.4025.
On the support side, USD/CAD needs to settle back below the 1.3920 level to gain downside momentum in the near term. In this case, USD/CAD will head towards the support at 1.3825 – 1.3840.
USD/JPY Moves Back Towards The 159.50 Level USD/JPY 120826 4h Chart USD/JPY gains some ground despite the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined below the 4.19% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 4.68%.
The nearest resistance level for USD/JPY is located in the 159.50 – 160.00 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 161.50 – 162.00. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to defend the Japanese yen in case USD/JPY attempts to settle above the 162.00 level.
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Forex Price Action – US Dollar in Focus with CPI Being ReleasedUS 10 Year, USDJPY, Platinum, and XLE – Price Action Heading into CPIUS Dollar Price Forecast: CPI Test Looms as DXY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD Hold Key LevelsAbout the Author
Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
It is increasingly possible that the recent correction in metals has ended following the strong rebound in miners, although it is still too early to confirm. We ideally need to see five waves higher from the lows, while so far we have only identified three. The current price action could be developing into the final stages of wave C or wave 3, followed by a wave 4 correction and another wave 5 higher, which would provide stronger confirmation of a bullish reversal. However, any strong and impulsive decline from current levels would suggest that the correction is still underway.
GoldGold remains in recovery mode and is now testing previous highs. The price action is increasingly suggesting wave (3) rather than wave (C), although the wave (C) scenario should still be considered.
Gold could still be completing wave 5 of a lower-degree impulse, so the next decline should provide more clarity. If we see a slow, choppy and overlapping pullback toward the 4357–4300 support area, it would ideally represent wave (4) of an ongoing five-wave bullish impulse. Such a structure would also provide confirmation of a bullish reversal on the higher time frames.
XAUUSD(gold) 1H ChartOn the other hand, a strong and impulsive five-wave decline below 4200 would suggest that wave (C) of the larger ABC correction has completed, keeping the bearish scenario in control.
SilverSilver also remains in recovery mode, with the current structure increasingly favoring wave 3 rather than wave C, as price has already extended into the Fibonacci cluster target area for wave 3.
The broader risk-on environment, supported by bullish stocks and a weaker US Dollar, could be contributing to a larger bullish reversal in metals. In the short term, Silver may still be advancing within subwave “v” of a lower-degree impulse.
XAGUSD(silver) 1H ChartHowever, traders should watch for a potential slowdown around 67.00, where a wave 4 correction toward the 64.00–63.00 support zone could develop before another move higher.
Risk-On Environment Supports MetalsThe broader market backdrop remains important. Stocks are still bullish, and this strong risk-on environment is increasingly supporting metals as well. Further gains in equities, combined with additional weakness in the US Dollar, could allow Gold and Silver to extend their recoveries.
Treasuries could also be approaching a potential temporary support within the final leg of a diagonal formation. If that support holds and Treasuries rebound, it could provide another supportive factor for metals.
For now, the key is to monitor the next corrective pullback. A slow and overlapping decline would favor a bullish continuation, while a strong impulsive selloff would warn that the larger correction is not yet finished.
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Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates its advance on Wednesday and trades around $66.00 at the time of writing, up 2.18% on the day. The white metal benefits from a decline in the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields following the release of the latest United States (US) inflation data, while geopolitical uncertainty continues to support safe-haven demand.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% MoM in July after falling 0.4% in June, while the annual rate eased to 3.4% from 3.5%. Both figures come in line with market expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, also matching forecasts.
The market reaction favors Silver. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, falls slightly following the release. US Treasury yields also decline, with the 2-year yield falling by around four basis points to trade near 4.18%.
Lower bond yields tend to support non-yielding precious metals such as Silver by reducing their opportunity cost. At the same time, a weaker US Dollar makes the Dollar-denominated metal cheaper for investors using other currencies.
The inflation figures, however, do not radically alter the monetary policy outlook. With headline inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target and elevated Oil prices keeping upside inflation risks alive, investors continue to expect monetary policy to remain restrictive. Nevertheless, the chance of a September rate hike falls to around 38% from 44% before the release, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The geopolitical backdrop provides additional support to Silver. According to Reuters, a senior Iranian source says that no discussions are currently taking place over an extension of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States. The source also claims that Washington violated the interim agreement 48 hours after it was reached before withdrawing from it a few days later.
These tensions maintain uncertainty over a lasting normalization of the situation in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting elevated Oil prices remain a potential source of inflationary pressure while simultaneously supporting demand for safe-haven assets. This combination of a slightly weaker US Dollar, lower US Treasury yields and persistent geopolitical risk allows Silver to maintain strong bullish momentum on Wednesday.
XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.03, retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $64.04 and the 200-hour SMA at $61.68. The metal also remains above an upwards-sloping trend-line support, now coming in around $65.57, which reinforces a constructive structure after the latest advance. Momentum is positive but not extreme, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 59, suggesting steady buying interest without yet reaching overbought territory.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the trend-line near $65.57, ahead of a deeper cushion at the 100-hour SMA around $64.04 and the 200-hour SMA at $61.68. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier at $66.80; a sustained break above this cap would open the way for further gains, while failure to clear it could trigger consolidation back toward the nearby trend-line support.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Key Points:The mid-year correction is over: Gold, silver, platinum, and miners all formed major lows, setting the stage for the next leg of the precious metals bull market.The biggest gains may still be ahead: We expect much higher prices into 2030–2031, with the most explosive phase of the bull market likely to occur during its final 12 months.Miners are poised to take the lead: After lagging during the first half of the bull market, gold and silver miners are showing signs of a major shift, with new all-time highs potentially arriving well before the metals themselves.
In this article:Gold
+1.13%
Gold ForecastSilver
+1.67%
Silver ForecastGold Big Picture Another quick reminder of where I believe we are in the larger bull trend: the 2026 pullback is only the halfway point of a 10-year rally that should take gold well above $10,000 by the end of the decade. Just like in 2006, I expect the recent lows to hold throughout the remainder of the bull market. In other words, I believe we just saw a major bottom.
Gold Gold bottomed mid-year, almost exactly as forecasted, and the uptrend is now resuming. As I noted in mid-July, expect the uptrend to begin gradually, with periods of sideways churn along the way. Medium term, we see prices trading above $7,000 in the second half of next year, which should be very good for miners.
Silver Silver likely bottomed in mid-July, as forecasted, but I’ll feel more confident once we see price break decisively above the cycle downtrend line, which could take another week or two. We expect silver to make new all-time highs alongside gold next year, but the real fireworks likely won’t arrive until the final stage of the bull market, which we expect around 2030–2031.
Platinum Platinum turned higher after reaching our mid-year target and is now very close to confirming a major bottom. It too should reach new all-time highs next year, but its greatest gains may not arrive until the final 12 months of the bull market. That’s when we expect platinum to return to parity with gold.
GDX Miners look strong after forming a major bottom mid-year, as forecasted. During the first half of the bull market, miners lagged, but we believe that is now changing. We expect miners to make new all-time highs well ahead of gold. I’ll be monitoring the GDX-to-gold ratio for confirmation of this shift in leadership.
GDXJ Gold juniors surged more than 30% after forming a major bottom, almost exactly as forecasted. Prices are overbought in the near term, so a period of consolidation wouldn’t be surprising. Medium term, we expect prices to make new all-time highs well ahead of gold as miners finally begin to outperform.
SILJ Silver juniors have closed decisively above the cycle downtrend line, confirming a major bottom at $23.06. If I’m correct that miners are set to outperform going forward, prices should make new highs well ahead of silver.
GDX:GOLD Ratio If I’m right about miners outperforming, I’d expect to see the GDX-to-gold ratio decisively break above 0.022 in the coming months.
Bitcoin We have a little over two months remaining in the bear cycle before I expect a 4-year low, with mid-October as my best estimate. The final washout below $57,000 could take about a month, so I’d like to see the breakdown begin sometime between now and mid-September.
I believe Bitcoin needs to fall below $50,000 to truly flush out sentiment and complete the cycle, with a likely target around $40,000, give or take 5%.
In Closing While many well-known analysts were calling for new all-time highs in precious metals back in April, we cautioned members to expect a deeper correction into a mid-year low. Prices bottomed almost exactly as we laid out to subscribers, and the next major uptrend has now begun.
We expect much higher prices into 2030/2031, with the strongest gains likely to occur during the final 12 months of the bull market. Miners should outperform from here, and pullbacks should be considered opportunities. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.
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Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
